# Top 5 RPGs Compiled Charts 2004-Present



## Deuce Traveler

This is pretty informative, so thank you.  I think it is interesting to see D&D fall so far down from summer of 2013 until spring of 2014, but it could be due to the edition change and everyone attempting to relearn the system.


----------



## Bolongo

Deuce Traveler said:


> I think it is interesting to see D&D fall so far down from summer of 2013 until spring of 2014, but it could be due to the edition change and everyone attempting to relearn the system.




Well, the edition didn't actually change then, but IIRC 2013 was when 4e almost completely dropped off the WotC production schedule.


----------



## ephemeron

I hadn't realized that the various Warhammer/40K RPGs were that big -- well, before last fall or so, I guess. It's also fascinating to see how different licensed-property games have waxed and waned in popularity.

How much do we know about how the size of the overall industry changed over this period?


----------



## TrippyHippy

I recall that reports suggested that the Warhammer 40K RPGs were the top sellers in the UK, ahead of Pathfinder - although that is just a fraction of the market compared to the US. They may have drifted off now a bit due to the attention given to FFG’s Star Wars series instead, the sense that they had completed their five core games, and the fact that most gaming IPs tend to have a limited lifespan of significant sales (about 3 years is normal). 

It’s also worth noting that even though the World of Darkness games appear to have declined a lot, this is mainly due to them making a quite dramatic change in their business plans. They no longer distribute through traditional game shops, but through online downloads, POD and Kickstarter. I don’t think these figures count those things, so it would be interesting to be able to get a round figure on how much their paying fanbase compares to other companies. 

D&D hardly released any new product last year, so their decline is accounted for. Expect them to be back at the top next year. I’d also be interested to see how The One Ring would do, depending on the extent of the distribution into the US.


----------



## Morrus

This has just been updated with data from 2004-2007, thanks to ZsuEtAm over on WotC's D&D forums.  That gives us a full ten years of charts!


----------



## MartyW

Deuce Traveler said:


> This is pretty informative, so thank you.  I think it is interesting to see D&D fall so far down from summer of 2013 until spring of 2014, but it could be due to the edition change and everyone attempting to relearn the system.




As another poster noted, 5e was not put out yet (although the play test was under way). No new 4e product was being put on store shelves.

No new product = no sales, therefore it's not surprising the sales numbers dropped to the floor as everyone awaited the new release. 

I'd be horribly surprised if Q4 2014 didn't see D&D back in the top spot. The Player's Handbook and Monster Manuals have been top sellers on Amazon. Even though Amazon sales are not reflected in the distributor's reports, I'm certain the traditional retail channels will see the same spike and D&D will reclaim #1.


----------



## lud

...


----------



## lud

I find it interesting to see from your compilation the pattern of the 3rd fantasy game in the lower part of the charts.

Starting in 2009 we have:

*Song of Ice and Fire* who loose its place to 
*Warhammer Fantasy RPG 3E* that is replaced by 
*Dragon Age* who is in turn replaced by 
*Iron Kingdom RPG* who is at the end of this cycle...


----------



## Lord Rasputin

Spikes by games coincide with new editions, since the core rule books always are the big sellers. To pick uncontroversial examples, GURPS got a new edition in 2004, but hasn't since, so it hasn't shown up again. Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay got new editions in 2005 and 2009, explaining its spikes then.

What the Essentials line did for D&D 4th was work like a new edition. Right before it came out, Pathfinder tied it, but D&D pulled into the lead again once the Essentials line got folks to update their core rule books. Once that boost was done, Pathfinder climbed into the lead.


----------



## Morrus

I dunno.  Pathfinder had a spike right as Essentials was released, tying for the top spot briefly, and then D&D started dropping very soon after the Essentials launch.


----------



## WackyAnne

As much as I am enjoying 5th Edition, I think D&D will have a hard time regaining first place for the foreseeable future. None of this speaks to quality of either game, or its players. Unless/until WotC ramps up to full production, especially on the adventure side, they don't have the lineup. Pathfinder also sells quarterly or more modules, the monthly APs, at least a new core book a year, and tons of splatbooks; even assuming that the maps & cards Paizo also publishes aren't counted, they still vastly outproduce WotC's D&D output. 

D&D5E only has 5 products out now (Starter Set, PHB, HotDQ, MM for Q3) and two more due before the end of the year (RoT & DMG for Q4).
Pathfinder will have 22 books out in the same time frame: 2 hardcovers, 2 double-length modules, and 6 volumes each of the Adventure Path (Iron Gods), campaign setting, and  player companions.


----------



## WackyAnne

(deleted duplicate post)


----------



## dream66_

Wow, I new Essentials was bad but I didn't realize how much it hurt the game's sales.


----------



## Morrus

Updated with Summer 2014!


----------



## MartyW

WackyAnne said:


> Unless/until WotC ramps up to full production, especially on the adventure side, they don't have the lineup. Pathfinder also sells quarterly or more modules, the monthly APs, at least a new core book a year, and tons of splatbooks;




I agree only partially with your conclusions. Because the AP subscriptions and other direct sales from Paizo will not be counted in the ICv2 numbers, Pathfinder will need to sell a lot of splat books through the retail channels to keep up.

Splat books don't sell as well as core books. This is true industry-wide (there have been many posts from people in the know on this one). WotC has 3 core books out between August and November and this will give their product line a huge spike. Given that, it would be near impossible for Pathfinder to stay on top for Q4 2014. 

Now, I do agree that WotC needs to put more product in their pipeline for the New Year or they may not be able to hold that spot for more than a quarter or two... but in the near term, I think WotC will be back on top for at least this particular industry report.


----------



## Neonchameleon

Missing game on the chart: Fate Core.  (Summer 2013-Spring 2014)

Interesting reading.


----------



## Neonchameleon

Double


----------



## Neonchameleon

While I'm at it, Evil Hat make their sales figures public knowledge.  So we can do some baselining of absolute numbers.

Fate core position: Summer 2013 - 5, Autumn 2013 - 3, Spring 2014 - 4, Summer 2014 - 6 or lower.

Fate Core Direct sales (not counting the 10,000 Kickstarter sales or One Bookshelf): 
Q2 2013 - 0 (they sold PDFs but hadn't yet hit the retailers)
Q3 2013 - 1675
Q4 2013 - 1330 
Q1 2014 - 1392 
Q2 2014 - 2062
Q3 2014 - 2301

(And yes, I've drilled down - direct Fate sales are actually increasing but they aren't selling new PDFs.)  Numbers only apply to the corebook.

Which is _very_ interesting.  It means Numenera has been a bit of a damp squib but everyone's sales have increased recently.  I'm not surprised ICV2 are happy with the recent trend.


----------



## MartyW

Neonchameleon said:


> Missing game on the chart: Fate Core.  (Summer 2013-Spring 2014)
> 
> Interesting reading.




FATE isn't likely to show up because it has less retail channel sales. Most of the FATE sales came through its Kickstarter, or direct sales from Evil Hat or POD.  None of that will show up in ICv2 reports. The ICv2 reports have limited utility on reporting larger trends in RPGs because it covers only a very specific distribution channel.


----------



## Neonchameleon

MartyW said:


> FATE isn't likely to show up because it has less retail channel sales.




My point was that Fate did show up in the top 5 for 3 successive quarters in the IC reports.  It's missing off the graph because it has three datapoints.


----------



## MartyW

Neonchameleon said:


> My point was that Fate did show up in the top 5 for 3 successive quarters in the IC reports.  It's missing off the graph because it has three datapoints.




Ah... I missed that it was actually in the report. That's great. I'm a big fan of Fred Hicks though I admit I don't quite have my mind fully wrapped around aspects and compels.


----------



## delericho

Neonchameleon said:


> Which is _very_ interesting.  It means Numenera has been a bit of a damp squib...




Didn't Numenera do almost all of its sales through the Kickstarters (for it, and for "The Strange")? In which case it would be unlikely to appear on a chart of game-store sales.


----------



## Dark Kain

Does "Numenera" include only Numenera products or all the cypher system products? (i.e. The Stange)


----------



## Morrus

Dark Kain said:


> Does "Numenera" include only Numenera products or all the cypher system products? (i.e. The Stange)




Haven't the foggiest. All we know is what ICv2 reports.


----------



## GMforPowergamers

Well looking at these numbers D&D by wotc owns any quarter it shows up to the race in (aka puts out a book) and still makes an excellent showing (aka top 5) when they aren't even trying to put out a for sale product... They still very much seem to be the 800lbs gorilla in the room.... it's number one competition is a house ruled version of an older edition. 

As for the other interesting thing... World of Darkness was recently called out as the number 2 selling RPG... and I think this shows sighns of truth here... it holds pretty solid on the number 2 place droping to 3rd for half the life of the chart... and has how many huge kickstarters after it falls off that chart...


----------



## Ancalagon

I'm looking forward to seeing the 2105 data


----------



## Disappointment

Wow, D&D pretty much won.


----------



## Flexor the Mighty!

What are they trying to trick us into with this?  I'm suspicious.


----------



## Morrus

Tables are working again on the new site, so the above chart should be legible again.


----------



## Ancalagon

Morrus said:


> Tables are working again on the new site, so the above chart should be legible again.



I hope we see it extended to now. I mean we know that 5e is on top, but I'm curious to see how the other games are going.


----------



## Morrus

Ancalagon said:


> I hope we see it extended to now. I mean we know that 5e is on top, but I'm curious to see how the other games are going.




It is extended to now. ICv2 releases charts for each quarter later in the year. Spring 2019 was released a couple of weeks ago. I’ve kept it updated each quarter for 15 years now.


----------



## Ancalagon

Morrus said:


> It is extended to now. ICv2 releases charts for each quarter later in the year. Spring 2019 was released a couple of weeks ago. I’ve kept it updated each quarter for 15 years now.



I apologize, I wasn't clear, I meant the graph.  The chart didn't display right at all on my phone, but now I can see it correctly on my computer, so it's all good.  Thanks for this


----------



## Morrus

Ancalagon said:


> I apologize, I wasn't clear, I meant the graph.  The chart didn't display right at all on my phone, but now I can see it correctly on my computer, so it's all good.  Thanks for this




That's just a question of some kind volunteer whipping up a graphic!


----------



## MerricB

WackyAnne said:


> As much as I am enjoying 5th Edition, I think D&D will have a hard time regaining first place for the foreseeable future. None of this speaks to quality of either game, or its players. Unless/until WotC ramps up to full production, especially on the adventure side, they don't have the lineup.




Just requoting this from several years ago because it's absolutely fascinating how fifth edition actually rocketed to the top of the charts even with very few products each year! 

Cheers!


----------



## Scarecrown

Why was 2015 such a huge growth point for retail sales? Across the industry gaming had a huge gain in 2015, is there any analysis as to why this happened?


----------



## aramis erak

Scarecrown said:


> Why was 2015 such a huge growth point for retail sales? Across the industry gaming had a huge gain in 2015, is there any analysis as to why this happened?



Analysis? not a serious one. Not enough data in public view.
Speculation abounds, however...


----------



## Scarecrown

aramis erak said:


> Analysis? not a serious one. Not enough data in public view.
> Speculation abounds, however...



So it could simply be improved reporting, or it could be some TTG renaissance, or even lizardman chemtrails taking our wimmin & stealing our jaaabs?


----------



## MGibster

Scarecrown said:


> So it could simply be improved reporting, or it could be some TTG renaissance, or even lizardman chemtrails taking our wimmin & stealing our jaaabs?



I hate these ridiculous conspiracy theories.  Any sensible person will come to the logical conclusion that it's Martians coming to steal our women. 

 This information is based on a survey rather than sales data.  At least the 1st and 2nd place games in each quarter/year lines up with what I vaguely remember.  I was a little surprsied to find both GURPS and Warhammer Fantasy RPG 2nd edition on the list.  I bought both, but only played GURPS once and never got around to playing WHRP.  Which reminds me, I have a bunch of WHFRPG books that are in near mint condition I need to so something with.

Oh yeah, and thanks to @Morrus for posthing this information.  It's always nice to get a historical perspective.


----------



## aramis erak

Scarecrown said:


> So it could simply be improved reporting, or it could be some TTG renaissance, or even lizardman chemtrails taking our wimmin & stealing our jaaabs?



Not improved reporting, per se. More correctly, reporting goes public from an industry source.
Also note: ICV2 doesn't release the hard numbers to the public. We only are given an industry overall growth and the relative positioning of the top 5 lists.

The VTT reports are a slice of the industry info as well, but are not sales numbers. That the rankings of play on the two reporting VTTs look similar to the ICV2 sales reports indicates that continued sales and play do correlate, One of those two reports actual numbers... And they're surprisingly large to me before the pandemic.

TSR never released hard sales numbers. But they did share some with other designers. They also estimated a million D&D players worldwide in 1992 or so. WotC's profit numbers were in the hasbro annual reports, but covered both D&D and Magic.

GDW didn't, but Marc Miller dba Far Future Enterprises released the Traveller  lifetime sales circa 1998... over 170,000 sales of the CT core rules to that date, not counting the reprint series (in which series they appeared.) FFE has sold thousands more copies in PDF since. Other versions add another 100,000 or so. So, to 1998, we know the traveller lines is around 300,000 core rules sets.  

Looking at GDW's numbers gives credence to the TSR Estimates; IME, about 1/3 of Traveller players had rulesets.
But GDW numbers don't  include the Judges Guild semi-core _Traveller's Logbook_, which includes character gen (Bk1 & bk 4), ship operations, trade and commerce tables, expansions to char gen (background/family mods, mods to atts by ho,eworld gravity and TL), alternate damage tables by standard ship type.


----------



## Scarecrown

aramis erak said:


> Looking at GDW's numbers gives credence to the TSR Estimates; IME, about 1/3 of Traveller players had rulesets.
> But GDW numbers don't  include the Judges Guild semi-core _Traveller's Logbook_, which includes character gen (Bk1 & bk 4), ship operations, trade and commerce tables, expansions to char gen (background/family mods, mods to atts by ho,eworld gravity and TL), alternate damage tables by standard ship type.



Curiously specific on the GDW details, but thank you for your thoughts.

I take it that you are indicating a period in which information from certain organisations became publicly accessible. Would you correlate this public access with the 2015 spike in sales numbers?


----------



## Scarecrown

MGibster said:


> This information is based on a survey rather than sales data.



But nevertheless the info indicates a sales spike at 2015, do you think the survey became more wide ranging, or that it shows an actual change in the market?


----------



## aramis erak

Scarecrown said:


> Curiously specific on the GDW details, but thank you for your thoughts.
> 
> I take it that you are indicating a period in which information from certain organisations became publicly accessible. Would you correlate this public access with the 2015 spike in sales numbers?



2014 is whe the only vaguely reliable information starts being released.
Traveller is the only documentary source from prior.
Claiming a trend exists from before  there is reliable data is, to be blunt, not smart.
The reliable data dates only from 2014 on, and is only reliable from 2015. The only available data from prior is Traveller's data.

There's nothing curious about the Traveller data other than that Marc released it at all. Traveller selling 170k units of CT, which went OOP in 1987 and OOS in 1988, and TSR claiming a million players - dissimilar data - but it makes it clear that, given the ratio of bookless to book-owning players, D&D was likely not lying about the million player number, but also that D&D sales numbers are probably only about 1.5× to 2× that of Traveller. (The circa 1990 survey that was sent to RPGA GMs had a "send me the results" tickbox. I did. Only about 1 in 4 players and almost all GMs had bought the AD&D2 PHB rules. Few players bought the DMG, but the number was unmemorable.

So, the 1990 status quo was probably about 1 million D&D players, 250K AD&D2 PHBs, and some lesser number of DMG's and MM's. But we don't, and _can not_, know those sales numbers until WotC releases them... Mike Mearls has stated having seen the numbers. We know that by 18 months after release, Mearls noted 5E has outsold all other D&D editions. I don't recall any clarification whether he meant _any single other edition_ or meant _all others combined_.

*At end of the day, we have very little data, and not enough to actually note trends prior to 2015. *


----------



## MGibster

Scarecrown said:


> But nevertheless the info indicates a sales spike at 2015, do you think the survey became more wide ranging, or that it shows an actual change in the market?



As a former historian, I have a certain skepticism regarding surveys just as I do with a great many other primary (and secondary) sources.  As someone about an event they witnessed in 1972 and ask them the same questions in 1992 and you might get different answers.  Not beacuse the person who answers is lying, but because they don't necessarily have the same perspective they did twenty years before.  

But it's not like there's any such thing as a perfect source of information, and sometimes you just have to go with the information you have available when making your interpretation of the past.  Which is why I appreciate Morrus' efforts here.  As to what it represents?  Well, it does appear there was a sales spike in 2015, but I don't have any theories as to why.


----------



## aia_2

What about the retroclones/OSR? Are these games not material, or are they somehow "out of scope" (meaning they are included in the "label" d&d)? There are at least a couple of titles that are worth to be mentioned in terms of market size...


----------



## Scarecrown

aramis erak said:


> *At end of the day, we have very little data, and not enough to actually note trends prior to 2015. *



Thanks for your explanation, I guess I was looking at pyrite all along. 
Still, the data probably does help one understand the general popularity of various game systems, as long as it’s seasoned with a grain of salt. 

Thanks for engaging in this topic. Maybe one day we’ll get some hard data on this whole scene.


----------



## Scarecrown

MGibster said:


> As a former historian, I have a certain skepticism regarding surveys ...
> 
> But it's not like there's any such thing as a perfect source of information, and sometimes you just have to go with the information you have available when making your interpretation of the past.



I agree, in the end all I can really say is, that I noticed the old school media started reporting a newfound interest in board games and table games about 5-8 years ago.

But what that says about M’s data spread is not really clear; it may be that sales crept up in a steady type fashion that for some reason is not reflected in the data, or that there was a critical mass of interest and information about that surge of interest, leading to a feedback loop.

2015 is as yet an unanswered question (although it’s obvious that everyone got Mayan calendars for Xmas and figured they might as well get around to playing those games they always said they were gonna, before the world ended. ironic, as those calendars were also probably lacking in data).

Cheers for the chat. I’ve really enjoyed it.


----------



## MGibster

Scarecrown said:


> But what that says about M’s data spread is not really clear; it may be that sales crept up in a steady type fashion that for some reason is not reflected in the data, or that there was a critical mass of interest and information about that surge of interest, leading to a feedback loop.



I noticed a growing trend in board game popularly around 1999-2000, but I'm hard pressed to remember the first time I saw Settlers of Catan at Walmart.  Was it around 2015-2016?  According to this article from The Atlantic, Walmart was selling the game online in 2011, so there's a good chance I also saw it at one of the stores around that time.


----------



## Scarecrown

MGibster said:


> I noticed a growing trend in board game popularly around 1999-2000, but I'm hard pressed to remember the first time I saw Settlers of Catan at Walmart.



Anecdotal data is so powerful upon the memory. 
I really can’t be sure when I noticed news shows reports on a board game renaissance, because it meant a lot to me at the time, and maintains a potent emotional impact upon me to this day.
Memory is heady stuff.


----------

