# D&D and the rising pandemic



## GreyLord

This is a little off topic, but I think considering recent events, very pertinent to D&D and the current situation in the world.

I was looking for something dealing with COVID 19 and couldn't find a forum to put it in, but considering the subject, this may be the best forum to think about this.

Currently in many cities there are fears of a rising virus.  Viruses normally spread exponentially, meaning that one sick individual infects several others and so forth.  With the rising numbers of ill, at what point do you consider cancelling your weekly (or bi-weekly) group?

Would you cancel it over illness fears?  If so, at what point do you decide to cancel?  Do you wait for the government to cancel schools and non-essentials?  Do you wait for longer...do you cancel before that?

If you are in one of the hotspots, what are you doing now?  If you are under quarantine, how do you get your gaming fix on?

Is it ethical to continue gaming if they say avoid non-essential contact with other people, for example if you are in Northern Italy in one of the hotspots currently?

Microsoft has instituted that many should work from home at this point.  There are many gamers there.  Should we be gaming more online rather than in person?  I'm not a big fan of gaming online and rather face to face over a table. 

When should we start avoiding the game stores...and won't that hurt the FLGS if they lose business for a week?

The bigger question we had recently is that there has been the flu bug going around in the community.  We are lucky we have no COVID reported currently in our area (though with how it's been handled I'm pretty sure it's in the wild in my country and there are probably dozens of unconfirmed cases if not more).  I had a person panic out today because another person was coughing right beside them.  Most likely it is the flu (and we are all rather healthy...I think...so even if we get it I think we are okay) rather than the COVID 19 because, as I said, no confirmed cases in the area, but it sparked an interesting discussion on the Corona virus and what should be done.  

With one of my groups I am a co-DM and basically the Co-Leader if we go by that.  I'm not quite as hardcore as the other co-leader of the group.  I'm leaning that if schools cancel, we should cancel...maybe before.  I'm not sure at what point to call the game and say...hey people...we aren't meeting anymore until this entire thing blows over.  I'm somewhat concerned.  For some reason (remember, no confirmed cases in our area) the stores are now out of toilet paper and sanitizer (Luckily I bought some recently).  People are panicking already and I'm thinking perhaps we should stop meeting for a while until this blows over.  The other co-leader is pretty hardcore though.  I'm not sure if they would cancel regardless of any situation (I'm thinking they had the flu and gave it to at least one other player).

Does anyone have thoughts or plans on this.  What happens if they put your area under quarantine or restricted mobility (don't go out unless one has to, distance between people, etc).  Anyone already enacting a plan regarding this situation in their home city?

How do you balance between running your game and the fears currently out there of a rising pandemic?  I suppose that's the core question.  Statistically, currently, the risk still seems low to me, but with how viruses spread that could change very quickly.  I don't want to shut down gaming prematurely, but at the same time I don't want our group to become the plague bearers of the area (I think our area is currently very low risk, but I'm not sure of the future).


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## The Green Hermit

Everyone in my group lives in my house, so if we are quarantined, we will all be quarantined together.

In all seriousness, though, I do live near the epicenter (for the US) and most of the schools are starting to discuss plans on how to handle the school shutting down or teachers/students not being able to come in due to quarantines. If people are told to shut down for a while, do so. Otherwise, go about your daily lives with just a little more precaution than before. No need to panic.


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## Shiroiken

This is what VTT are for. You can be quarantined, and still play all you want


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## Monayuris

We're playing it by ear. Trying to stay safe and keep our weekly game going.

Anyone in my group who feels unsafe traveling to the game is free to stay at home. We'll put them up on a laptop. I think just being cognizant of your own personal health and keeping some boundaries and distance is enough right now. If it really comes to it, Roll20 will do just fine.

I have a regular local pub game as well. I'm not quite at the point of canceling it yet. If it comes to it that will be the first to go.


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## Zardnaar

Was wrong completely and utterly.

 Apologies. Not worried about getting sick myself more about everything else.


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## Enevhar Aldarion

Considering the reputation of convention crud and people getting sick after getting home from cons, I will start to worry once sci-fi and gaming conventions start cancelling. And specifically Spring conventions. Ones later in the year, like Origins or Gencon, will probably not have to worry about this.

And as a side note, this virus will probably not be dangerous to most gamers, rather it will be dangerous to those they may pass it on to: the elderly or those already with compromised health, as can be seen by the number of deaths in that one nursing home in Washington state.


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## Coroc

Stay away from older people if you are unsure whether you are infected. That is about the only advice I can give you based on the known facts.


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## Olrox17

I live in Italy (not in the north, but still).
Yeah, our game night is currently suspended, because it’s just the most responsible thing to do. If schools, gyms, cinemas etc are all closed to limit contagion, the same must go for dnd games.

It’s not the end of the world though, it’s a good chance to play that videogame that’s gathering dust on the shelf, or read a book, or watch the latest castlevania season on Netflix.
People of ages 70+ should be very careful, they are really at risk.


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## DND_Reborn

So... no, we would not cancel our sessions.

This pandemic is a lot of media hype. I am not saying it isn't there or real, and I feel horrible for the regions affected, but media feeds into the fears of the people. I do a lot in the stock markets, and this is the kind of stuff that drives me crazy! People are stockpiling supplies like it is the end of the world.

If the news was broadcast in grayscale and not color, people wouldn't be nearly as freaked out. Consider this revised map:



Spoiler: Revised Map










No reaction, right? Could mean anything.

Now, look at site like Wikipedia even, notice how the map is just shades of red?



Spoiler: Original Map









Our reaction is something scary is going on. According to this map, it looks like all 1 billion plus people in China are already gone!

And that causes fear and panic instead of rational reactions.

Certainly in areas where the virus is present, people need to be cautious, but media pushes it overboard in my estimation.

So, we will continue to meet to play D&D.


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## J-H

Better map:





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					www.arcgis.com
				




We play bi-weekly and have cancelled/skipped due to people being sick/busy before.  We'll cancel/delay if needed.

I am going to a homeschool convention this weekend, and we'll be taking hand sanitizer, washing our hands a lot, trying to not touch our faces, and we may go ahead and wear surgical masks (doesn't stop virus, does stop droplets & helps everyone keep some distance).   Just had our first confirmed case in the metro area yesterday...which means it's been spread for up to 5 days.

It's really hard to tell what to do/not do, but with a bad respiratory system sitting in my chest, I'm going to be cautious.


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## DND_Reborn

Nice map, but still proves the point about red. All those Total Confirmed could be in a nice light blue with blue circles on the map, and many people would not be as worried for that factor alone.

Again, I am not downplaying the significance and impact of the virus, just how important they way we interact with the information and how it affects us.


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## atanakar

I live with someone who has a low immune system because of a chronic disease. No chances to be taken.


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## Enrico Poli1

I live in northern Italy near Milan. Currently under quarantine.
Please do NOT underestimate the Coronavirus, it is NOT THE FLU, but much more dangerous. It is DEADLY for old people but also FOR ANY AGE WITHOUT HOSPITALIZATION, and it saturates the healthcare system quickly.
Please take care! 
Inasmuch D&D is concerned, as soon as you can, please start to play via internet. It is easier then you think.


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## atanakar

atanakar said:


> I live with someone who has a low immune system because of a chronic disease. No chances to be taken.




Having said that, the person plays D&D and we started the Essential Kit campaign solo in January. We can always do that.


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## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## Dausuul

My group is in the "play it by ear" category. We are an established group with very little turnover, and we only play every two weeks. One of our players is a doctor, so we'll let him call the shots on this.

My other "social hobby" is ballroom dance, and I expect that will get hit a lot harder; we've already seen a sharp drop-off in attendance at social events and they will probably have to be canceled entirely when COVID-19 starts popping up in this area. Events where you get a bunch of random people together, many of them elderly, and have them spend 2-3 hours in close physical contact are... not ideal... during this outbreak.


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## Umbran

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Considering the reputation of convention crud and people getting sick after getting home from cons, I will start to worry once sci-fi and gaming conventions start cancelling.




Emerald City ComicCon did postpone several months.



> And as a side note, this virus will probably not be dangerous to most gamers, rather it will be dangerous to those they may pass it on to: the elderly or those already with compromised health...




There are a lot of gamers out there with compromised immune systems, or with people in their homes who are - it might do well to _ask_.

I mean, in my group, we recognize that if someone has the cold or flu in their house, they ought to stay home.  It isn't like the flu would kill anyone at the table, but it wouldn't be good to spread it around.  This is a _worse_ idea to spread around.



dnd4vr said:


> Our reaction is something scary is going on.




With respect, the fact that you shouldn't panic does not mean that what is going on is not scary.



> Certainly in areas where the virus is present, people need to be cautious, but media pushes it overboard in my estimation.




There is an issue with this disease - the long transmissible incubation period before symptoms are apparent.  This means the known number of cases is always going to be about two weeks behind the actual number of cases.  Which means, to get ahead of the thing, you need to behave in ways that will seem excessive for the number of cases known at the moment.


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## aco175

My group is not changing anything as of yet.  I tend to just play with my son, brother, and father do most likely by the time any of us realize we are sick- the others will have been exposed.  I'm really only worried about my father who is over 70.  

If I played in larger groups and/or had a convention planned I would still most likely go.  I would monitor to see if there is an explosion of the infected in my area and most likely bring some wipes for people to use as well.


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## Celebrim

dnd4vr said:


> And that causes fear and panic instead of rational reactions.




What exactly do you think is a rational reaction to a disease with apparently an R0 of higher than 2.5 and a mortality rate of higher than 3.4%?

I'm not denying that there is a certain amount of hype, but those two numbers I think pretty much tell the whole story.   You either believe those numbers are real, or you don't - in which case your distrust extends to far more than just 'the media'.

So, as for myself, I don't think we'll meet for two reasons.

First, and most importantly, for the sake of people outside our group who would be at high risk in the event of a general epidemic. For the sake of the elderly, it just doesn't make any sense to put our enjoyment ahead of their lives.

And secondly, several members of my group have the single most important co-morbidity factor - high blood pressure.  So, even though mortality in our age group is quite low, with the high blood pressure present in it's in the 1% range.   And that's to not even get into the relatively high risk that they'd need to be on oxygen for 2 to 4 weeks.


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## jayoungr

We've played online in the past when one of our group had to be out of town for an extended period, so I'm sure we'd just go back to that.


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## Krachek

I think that covid-19 is a poor choice for the contagion spell.


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## Sacrosanct

I think anyone who is sick and goes to a game, whether that be a private game or to an FLGS, is being very irresponsible. But I have always thought that, even with the normal flu. No one wants your illness Karen. 

Re coronavirus, no impact to our games as of yet, and I live in a town with one of the first US cases and the hospital near my house had 20 workers put into quarantine who were exposed, and a few days ago the middle school where I live had a kid test positive. 

Just be careful about touching things, and wash your hands often. Wash them well. And if none of your group has been exposed or is sick, game on. 

That said, I think the number of cases is higher than reported here because we're still not testing for it hardly. When you suddenly increase the number of tests, you're gonna get more positive results. Doesn't mean it suddenly and exponentially spread, it just means we're finally testing a large pool. So people need to prepare themselves to hear of more cases and not panic. Wishful thinking, I know.


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## Sacrosanct

Celebrim said:


> What exactly do you think is a rational reaction to a disease with apparently an R0 of higher than 2.5 and a mortality rate of higher than 3.4%?
> 
> I'm not denying that there is a certain amount of hype, but those two numbers I think pretty much tell the whole story.   You either believe those numbers are real, or you don't - in which case your distrust extends to far more than just 'the media'.
> 
> So, as for myself, I don't think we'll meet for two reasons.
> 
> First, and most importantly, for the sake of people outside our group who would be at high risk in the event of a general epidemic. For the sake of the elderly, it just doesn't make any sense to put our enjoyment ahead of their lives.
> 
> And secondly, several members of my group have the single most important co-morbidity factor - high blood pressure.  So, even though mortality in our age group is quite low, with the high blood pressure present in it's in the 1% range.   And that's to not even get into the relatively high risk that they'd need to be on oxygen for 2 to 4 weeks.





Not to belittle the importance of the virus, because it is important, but even most of the medical community cautions against using that mortality rate. Most credible sources say they don't know, rather than give that number, or if they do, it's always with the same caveat: only the most severe cases have been tested, and no one with just minor symptoms have been tested yet, so it skews the number. We won't know until much later what a more accurate fatality rate is. It would be like only factoring in those people who went to the ER for the flu, to calculate the fatality rate of the flu.


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## akr71

Considering that one group is my family, who I live under the same roof with, eat with, etc - Yes, we will continue to play.

The other group I play with is 8 of us, 5 of which are coworkers. Yes we will continue to play.

Other factors - there are no confirmed cases in the province I live in, or the neighboring one --> Lets keep playing. My wife is a nurse with the Department of Public Health who would bitch-slap me if I let hysteria ruin our social-life.

Having said that - we have cancelled game night in the past because someone was not feeling well, or was dealing with sick children and we will do it in the future if the need arises.


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## Umbran

Celebrim said:


> What exactly do you think is a rational reaction to a disease with apparently an R0 of higher than 2.5 and a mortality rate of higher than 3.4%?




So, to put this in perspective for folks who are not data scientists or statisticians...

The R0 is the number of people that a sick person will then infect.  It is _highly_ dependent on how the population responds to the epidemic.

Typically, the flu has an R0 of about 1.3.  Covid-19 has an R0 somewhere between 2 and 3 outside of China - likely around 2.5.  This may not sound like much of a difference, but after 20 "generations" of passing along an illness, an R0 of 1.3 would result in 146 infections, but an R0 of 2.5 would result in 36 million infections.

The number of people found with covid-19 infections doubles every 3 to 6 days.  Ten days ago, Italy thought it was fine.  Today?  Their hospital system is overrun, and they are putting up tents outside hospitals to deal wiht the overflow, and there's nationwide policies to restrict spread of the disease.

Compared to the reading I've done, the mortality rate Celebrim has here is high, and I home he doens't mind a correction. His number has been floating around, and seems to be based on a statement of the WHO that 3.4 percent of people with reported covid-19 infections worldwide had died.  This is _NOT THE SAME_ as the mortality risk for infection, as many infections happen but never see a health care professional.  There is an esimation step that happens between Celebrim's number, and the actual mortality risk.

The flu has a death rate of around 0.1% of infections. Marc Lipsitch, the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard, estimates that for covid-19 it is 1-2%. The latest epedemiological modeling found a 1.6% rate in China in February, sixteen times higher than the flu.


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## Celebrim

Umbran said:


> There is an estimation step that happens between Celebrim's number, and the actual mortality risk.




That estimation step is already factored into the 3.4% estimate.  The number for those with verified infection is 5.7%.

I haven't read the papers you linked to yet, but every estimate I've seen for incidence rates under 2% postulates that there is a very large number of undetected cases in the population.   The evidence for that is fairly weak though, and depends on a relatively large percentage of the population being asymptomatic.

Though, even if it were 2%, that would still be extraordinarily high from a historical perspective.  It's been over 100 years since the last appearance of a novel airborne disease with R0 around 2 and mortality rate around 2%.


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## jgsugden

Be safe, not paranoid. 

If you're sick, at all, do not go. Skype in if you still want to play.

If you go, wash your hands and don't touch your face - WHICH IS ADVICE YOU SHOULD ALWAYS FOLLOW. 

Wipe down the play area /meeting area with some disinfectant before and after the session / event.

Send me $50.

If we all followed this simple advice all the time, tens of thousands of lives in the countries where we play these games might be saved.  It would nearly wipe out the flu in those countries.


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## Sacrosanct

Celebrim said:


> That estimation step is already factored into the 3.4% estimate.  The number for those with verified infection is 5.7%.
> 
> I haven't read the papers you linked to yet, but every estimate I've seen for incidence rates under 2% postulates that there is a very large number of undetected cases in the population.   The evidence for that is fairly weak though, and depends on a relatively large percentage of the population being asymptomatic.
> 
> Though, even if it were 2%, that would still be extraordinarily high from a historical perspective.  It's been over 100 years since the last appearance of a novel disease with R0 around 2 and mortality rate around 2%.



Where are you getting your figures?  Asnof now, 116000 confirmed cases, 4000 deaths. That's 3.4%. I've never seen your higher figure. The math doesn't work out like that.

And what do you mean the evidence is fairly weak of lots of people with it haven't been confirmed?  That makes zero sense. People with minor symptoms don't tend to go to the ER to get tested. And here in the US, we don't even have many tests TO test cases. Our testing here is very small, and it's entirely plausible that many more people have it but don't know.


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## DND_Reborn

Celebrim said:


> What exactly do you think is a rational reaction to a disease with apparently an R0 of higher than 2.5 and a mortality rate of higher than 3.4%?
> 
> I'm not denying that there is a certain amount of hype, but those two numbers I think pretty much tell the whole story.   You either believe those numbers are real, or you don't - in which case your distrust extends to far more than just 'the media'.




I won't deny those numbers, they (or close to them) are fact. But, this is the problem with statistics, you can slant them however you want. The media often (not always) slants them to create fear and sensationalism because those things sell.

Here are some other numbers (based on information from @J-H map):

0.005% of the Chinese people have caught the virus or roughly 1 in 17,500.
About 3.75% mortality rate. Which means 1 in 465,000 Chinese roughly will die from the virus given the current numbers.
And so far roughly 60% have recovered in China while the rest remain ill.

Compare those numbers to the odds of death from any number of other things (U.S. only, sorry) (Odds of Dying - Injury Facts):

You are more likely to be struck by lightning than die of the virus. Or die in a car accident, die by gunshot, or any number of things. I'm sorry because I know that sounds sensational, but it is more about keeping things in perspective. But the virus is new, and news, and all over the media and Internet.



Celebrim said:


> So, as for myself, I don't think we'll meet for two reasons.
> 
> First, and most importantly, for the sake of people outside our group who would be at high risk in the event of a general epidemic. For the sake of the elderly, it just doesn't make any sense to put our enjoyment ahead of their lives.
> 
> And secondly, several members of my group have the single most important co-morbidity factor - high blood pressure.  So, even though mortality in our age group is quite low, with the high blood pressure present in it's in the 1% range.   And that's to not even get into the relatively high risk that they'd need to be on oxygen for 2 to 4 weeks.




That's admirable, but by that logic you should not drive to your sessions either as you are more likely to kill someone (of any age) in a car accident than cause their death through the spread of this virus.

Again, I am not trying to belittle the virus or the seriousness of the horrible deaths caused by it. And in areas where it is high I encourage people to take precautions. But I also encourage people to drive safely, only use prescription drugs, and so on for their general well-being and that of others.


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## Umbran

Celebrim said:


> That estimation step is already factored into the 3.4% estimate.  The number for those with verified infection is 5.7%.




I believe you are mistaken.  My sources say differently:

From The Washington Post
"This week, World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated an undisputed fact: 3.4 percent of people with reported covid-19 infections worldwide have died. Or the fact was undisputed until misinterpretations set in, almost immediately. Some in the news media mistook the statement as meaning an alarming 3.4 percent mortality _risk_ for coronavirus infections overall. "

From ADJUSTED AGE-SPECIFIC CASE FATALITY RATIO DURING THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC IN HUBEI, CHINA, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY 2020

"We estimated the age-specific case fatality ratio (CFR) by fitting a transmission model to data from China, accounting for underreporting of cases and the time delay to death. Overall CFR among all infections was 1.6% (1.4-1.8%) and increased considerably for the elderly, highlighting the expected burden for populations with further expansion of the COVID-19 epidemic around the globe. "

This last is an academic paper that actually handles the estimation, by epedemiologists - the people whose job it is to estimate such things.  If you have a better citation, please give it.



> I haven't read the papers you linked to yet, but every estimate I've seen for incidence rates under 2% postulates that there is a very large number of undetected cases in the population.   The evidence for that is fairly weak though, and depends on a relatively large percentage of the population being asymptomatic.




No.  It depends on a large percentage of the population not going to the hospital and getting tested.  For most folks, the symptoms are very similar to a cold or the flu.  Most people don't go to the doctor for such things, much less get tested for covid-19.



> Though, even if it were 2%, that would still be extraordinarily high from a historical perspective.  It's been over 100 years since the last appearance of a novel disease with R0 around 2 and mortality rate around 2%.




A mortality rate 16x that of the flu is scary, yes.  No argument.  It has impact well beyond just the people who die from covid-19.  It also tends to fill up the health care system such that those who have _other_ life threatening issues will not be able to get care - this being seen in Italy today, for example.


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## Celebrim

Umbran said:


> No.  It depends on a large percentage of the population not going to the hospital and getting tested.  For most folks, the symptoms are very similar to a cold or the flu.  Most people don't go to the doctor for such things, much less get tested for covid-19.




Yeah, except for we have the ongoing case of South Korea, where that isn't true because South Korea is testing everyone with potential exposure (a strategy that is proving very effective). So it really depends on what you think the South Korea rate is going to trend towards. I'm hoping for a final number under 2% as well, but don't want to bet on it.

In any event, I'm going to bow out of this discussion of the actual R0 and mortality rate.  They are high.  They are difficult to estimate in an ongoing outbreak.  And different data sets will give you different results.  But this is such a tired topic for me at this point, that I don't want to rehash it, and in any event EnWorld isn't the forum for doing that.


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## Celebrim

dnd4vr said:


> You are more likely to be struck by lightning than die of the virus. Or die in a car accident, die by gunshot, or any number of things. I'm sorry because I know that sounds sensational, but it is more about keeping things in perspective.




There is a major problem in your numbers, but I'm just going to drop it.  I've been having this argument almost nonstop for eight weeks now, and it's tiring.


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## jgsugden

Arguing over numbers, quite frankly, is missing the point.

If we can save _one_ life by exercising reasonable caution, isn't it worth doing so?  

If everyone takes reasonable precautions, this thing dies quickly.  If not, it spreads as widely as a flu strain (or more widely) and appears to be more deadly and virulent.  Heck, taking reasonable precautions against this bug will also put a real kink in th flu and tht is a very noble goal.

Most of us have probably spread the flu because we were too lazy to take precautions.  That flu likely then spread to someone with a fragile health situation that died from complications arising from the disease.  You're not responsible by yourself - many people make the same mistake to pass it along the chain, but hundreds of thousands of peple have died from the flu in the past few decades alone in the US and most of us have given it to someone else.


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## seebs

Back when the "Spanish" flu (believed to have originated in Kansas, but Spain was neutral in the war going on at the time and thus not having its news censored) was happening, Philadelphia said "haha losers we're not panicing over this", and St. Louis shut down and cancelled public gatherings and such.

Net result: Mortality of ~350/100k in St. Louis, ~750/100k in Philadelphia. (And sure, those are smallish compared to all the other risks put together, or the really large other risks, but they're still a very large marginal change.)


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## Umbran

jgsugden said:


> Arguing over numbers, quite frankly, is missing the point.




Not if it gets people to take the proper precautions.



> If we can save _one_ life by exercising reasonable caution, isn't it worth doing so?




Yes, but what a "reasonable caution" will be depends upon the level of the threat.  Reasonable precautions against the flu is... washing your hands, and not going to your friends house if you or someone you live with is currently sick.  Reasonable precautions against this are still up in the air.  Italy thought it was taking reasonable precautions... but seems to have been short of the mark.


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## Lem23

Don't be an idiot. Stay safe, and don't listen to people claiming that it's all just hype and "sensationalist media lies."


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## Man in the Funny Hat

GreyLord said:


> With the rising numbers of ill, at what point do you consider cancelling your weekly (or bi-weekly) group?



When one of the actual players or someone they have close contact with IS ILL, or the local health department says, "We have a local outbreak.  Everybody stay home and don't contact others or risk contagion."



> How do you balance between running your game and the fears currently out there of a rising pandemic?



By ignoring the outrageously overblown fears generated by the media and keeping the realistic degree of threat in a more appropriate perspective.



> I don't want to shut down gaming prematurely, but at the same time I don't want our group to become the plague bearers of the area (I think our area is currently very low risk, but I'm not sure of the future).



If you or a player shows up sniffling to a game you shouldn't be playing anyway because it's very inconsiderate to spread NORMAL flu that way.

If you're going to stop getting together for gaming then you'd best not be going out to the movies, going to work, to school, to the grocery store, or otherwise interacting face-to-face with the general public because they're surely a greater risk for infecting you.


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## Sacrosanct

The awful thing about COVID-19 over the flu is twofold:

it’s exceptionally lethal to the elderly
It can be spread for several days before the person shows symptoms.

therefore, the focus should be on limiting exposure to the elderly and sick. Mark Parkinson, CEO of American Healthcare Association, has even recommended people not visit those in assisted living and retirement homes because you could be carrying it and not know.

A lot of people say how we’ll be fine statistically. And that’s probably true. But even if I am fine, my 97 year old grandma won’t be if I spread it to her.


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## Olrox17

To all those that think Coronavirus is just a big conspiracy: I hope you won’t have to change your opinion the hard way. I know more than a few people here in Italy that had to.


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## DND_Reborn

Lem23 said:


> Don't be an idiot. Stay safe, and don't listen to people claiming that it's all just hype and "sensationalist media lies."




First, if you are going to attack someone, do it, and don't hide behind ambiguity.

Second, no one here ever said it is _all_ just hype and lies. If you read my posts, I frequently acknowledge that it is out there, it is serious and horrible for those impacted, etc., and people in affected regions should take whatever precautions they deem necessary (stay home from work, school, get supplies to stay home for a week or two, etc.).

My point was a lot of media and internet responses shout "fire" when there is just a spark, speaking metaphorically world-wide. Your response is a perfect example, with your every increasing image sizes. You are waving your hands and shouting when you do such things.

Of course, sparks can be dangerous. It is best to act to contain and put out the spark. Do that. That is important. I've never argued otherwise. But do it with sense and understanding. Not everyone, everywhere, needs to put their lives on hold for two weeks. In the mean time, certainly wash your hands, practice good hygiene, and such as you normally should.


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## Ralif Redhammer

At my open table, I've a player that shows up regardless of illness. That has me a bit worried in the best of times. Sure, we want dedicated players, but not like that.

My open table at a gaming cafe will probably just halt based on whether or not the cafe remains open.

My home group has talked about switching to online gaming, should there be an actual outbreak in our area (currently, the recorded cases are all on the other side of the state, but I'm sure that will change).

I'm still planning on heading to Gary Con in about two weeks. But I'll be bringing plenty of hand sanitizer and Clorox wipes for all surfaces. It's a mild concern at this point, and honestly, I'm more afraid of getting sick ahead of time and having to cancel. If the outbreak is still going come summer, I'm not sure how this'll affect Origins.



Sacrosanct said:


> I think anyone who is sick and goes to a game, whether that be a private game or to an FLGS, is being very irresponsible. But I have always thought that, even with the normal flu. No one wants your illness Karen.


----------



## S'mon

If the government shuts down the pubs and public transport, I guess I'll have to suspend my tabletop games and dust off one of my play-by-posts or text-chat games.


----------



## RSIxidor

We haven't cancelled any of our games yet, but we do mostly play in each other's homes. That of course doesn't rule out having picked it up at work or elsewhere. No one I play with would force playing while knowing they are sick, at least. But as I understand it, you can be infected and contagious without symptoms for a bit, so even that may not be enough.

There is now a presumptive case in my county, that makes me a bit more worried. Up until now, it's all been in other parts of the USA or in other countries.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Also, the mortality rate doesn’t capture the total picture.  Last figure I saw showed that up to 20% require breathing assistance. They don’t die, so it doesn’t show up on the fatality %, but that’s still pretty scary.  Especially if there aren’t enough care providers or breathing machines to cover everyone.


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


----------



## Lem23

That's the crappy thing, you can have it, be passing it around, and not show symptoms for days, possibly a week or more. If you have symptoms, then certainly quarantine yourself or seek hospital treatment, but just because you aren't currently showing symptoms doesn't mean you are fine. As Sacrosanct said above, consider not visiting elderly relatives or those who have other illnesses that put them in the  higher categories for danger. If you're in a danger area, put your social life on hold. Play online.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

That there won't be enough machines to go around is a very scary and very real danger, should the outbreak grow large enough. 



Sacrosanct said:


> Also, the mortality rate doesn’t capture the total picture.  Last figure I saw showed that up to 20% require breathing assistance. They don’t die, so it doesn’t show up on the fatality %, but that’s still pretty scary.  Especially if there aren’t enough care providers or breathing machines to cover everyone.




That is encouraging, definitely. My hope is that between that and individual precautions, we should be fine. While a delay or postponing at this point is certainly possible, we're only about two weeks away. The logistics of that would certainly be a nightmare.

However, I am seeing that some of the GMs (and presumably players as well) are cancelling on their own.



lowkey13 said:


> Gary Con & Grand Geneva Actions to Mitigate Risk at GC XII - GaryCon
> 
> 
> There is a lot of attention on infectious diseases this cold and flu season, including COVID-19 (aka Coronavirus), and we have addressed several attendees questions about it.  We wanted to let everyone know publicly how we are working with the Grand Geneva staff to take actions to mitigate the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> garycon.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I would not be surprised if things change and/or it is postponed or cancelled .... but at least they are addressing it!


----------



## NotAYakk

dnd4vr said:


> Nice map, but still proves the point about red. All those Total Confirmed could be in a nice light blue with blue circles on the map, and many people would not be as worried for that factor alone.
> 
> Again, I am not downplaying the significance and impact of the virus, just how important they way we interact with the information and how it affects us.



As an epidemic, it should be graphed logarithmicly.

Currently it grows at a rate of 10x every 16 days or so, at least until 10% or so infected, assuming no countermeasures.

How about each point of red on a 256 color scale is, say, 16 hours of virus progress, or a week is 10 points of color.  So at 0 red you are at least 3200 hours or 133 days or 4 months away from 200 red, which we'll fix at 10% of the population infected.  240 red can be 100% infected, so past 10% we give 1 point of red for every 2% infected in population.

The virus grows by 10x every 16 days, so every factor of 10 is 24 color points.

To make things simple, we'll assume each area has a population of 100 million.
100 million: 255 red
10 million: 200 red
1 million: 176 red
100 thousand: 152 red
10 thousand: 128 red
1 thousand: 104 red
100: 80 red
10: 56 red
1 infected: 32 red

We can then subtract based on your population.  China gets -24 for having a billion people, USA gets -12 for having 300 million, Canada gets +12 for having 30 million.

SK: 130 red
Italy: 124 red
China: 120 red
USA: 78 red
Canada: 76 red

Note that controlled cases are counted here.

USA has 100s of uncontrolled transmission cases, canada has had 1.  If we only count uncontrolled transmission (ie, not quarentined on a ship and tested and taking directly into isolation, or caught from travel to a known non-local hotspot), we get:

SK: 130 red (possibly much less due to extreme tracking measures, uncertain)
Italy: 124 red (they gave up on tracking, are just trying to isolate it into starvation)
China: 120 red (possibly much less due to extreme tracking measures, uncertain)
USA: 76 red (1/3 of US cases are unknown source at this point)
Canada: 44 red (almost all Canadian cases are known-source and isolated at this point)

Basically, this places USA 5 weeks away from Italy without measures being undertaken to stop it.

And the incubation period 0-2 weeks, so there should be a region where (known or not) you should have avoided going around in public in about 3-4 weeks from now as it was all over the place.

Likely areas in the USA are NY, California and Seattle, or also possible is a state that is undertested and has an outbreak nobody knows about yet.

---

TL;DR this thing is more infections than the common cold.  It grows at 10x every 16 days.

An area with 10 community infections is only a month behind a place with 1000.

Italy, which has more doctors per capita than the USA, has had its health care system collapse under the outbreak of 1000s of cases.  The success rate of ventilators on elderly and those with comorbidity is low enough that they are triaging their use and letting people who could be saved die, because there are not enough ventilators.

USA on its current trajectory is 5 weeks away from a similar situation, because 300 unknown source people means about 300 people sick in the wild and untreated still spreading it.

In 16 days those 300 people are going to be 3000.  In 16 more days they are going to be 30,000.  In 16 more they are going to be 300,000.  In 16 more they will be 3 million.

There are 62,188 full-feature ventilators in the USA.  Upwards of 10% of those infected with Covid-19 need ventilation.  So in 50-70 days the USA will run out of ventilators if they are moved to where they are needed with 100% efficiency, and that assumes we only use them for Covid-19.

Oxygen and CPAP type machines can be used (they are better than nothing).

But don't worry, you are more likely to be hit by lightning (today).  Don't worry about tomorrow.


----------



## Lem23

Talking of taking precautions and not being an idiot:










WTF?


----------



## Dausuul

dnd4vr said:


> 0.005% of the Chinese people have caught the virus or roughly 1 in 17,500.



You're cherry-picking statistics from a country that has instituted draconian quarantines with an outbreak that is, even now, still in its early stages.

How about everybody who isn't an epidemiologist quits batting numbers around that the actual epidemiologists haven't yet nailed down? Maybe instead we focus on what those epidemiologists are telling us, which is that this could get quite bad. Not Black Death bad, not even Spanish Flu bad, but bad enough that we should expect significant disruptions of our lives for the next 12 months or so.


----------



## Sadras

Sacrosanct said:


> Where are you getting your figures?  Asnof now, 116000 confirmed cases, 4000 deaths. That's 3.4%. I've never seen your higher figure. The math doesn't work out like that.




I'm not going to argue the numbers just provide you with a useful link where I suspect @Celebrim got his figures from. This is the home page.

I will say this, the 116,000 confirmed cases includes still active cases.
My logic tells me that one should take the deaths over the total closed cases to get a more accurate percentage - because active cases can still lead to more deaths. Ofcourse there is the estimated part of the formula which messes it all up a bit.


----------



## Prakriti

I almost didn't want to start my new campaign, because I'm pretty sure the pandemic will disrupt it at some point. But I decided to go ahead with it anyway, because it's better to have fun while we can than to live in fear.

Oh, and I've been watching this thing develop for weeks. It was driving me crazy how no one was taking it seriously in February, even though it was only a matter of time before the disease spread across the globe. Now that other people are starting to freak out, my anxiety level has actually gone DOWN, because at least now people are starting to react appropriately and take necessary precautions.


----------



## Sadras

Prakriti said:


> Oh, and I've been watching this thing develop for weeks. It was driving me crazy how no one was taking it seriously in February, even though it was only a matter of time before the disease spread across the globe. Now that other people are starting to freak out, my anxiety level has actually gone DOWN, because at least now people are starting to react appropriately and take necessary precautions.




It is like you read my mind.


----------



## DND_Reborn

NotAYakk said:


> But don't worry, you are more likely to be hit by lightning (today).  Don't worry about tomorrow.




I won't.



Dausuul said:


> You're cherry-picking statistics from a country that has instituted draconian quarantines with an outbreak that is, even now, still in its early stages.




No, I picked the largest sample size that has been experiencing it the longest. It is the best number to go on for now. But, you can use any country or the whole world if you like, it doesn't change anything.


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


----------



## THEMNGMNT

I'd like to repeat what others have said. Don't listen to randos on the internet or talk radio. Take your guidance from medical professionals. Got questions? Ask your doctor. 

There are communities in the U.S. that are already experiencing significant disruptions. The virus is here, it's real, and it's not concocted by the media. Don't treat it as a joke. Err on the side of caution.

Now is the time to prepare in case your community is impacted and you and your family have to stay home. 

Be well, friends.


----------



## Sacrosanct

People used to give me a hard time for being a prepper (not like what you see on doomsday preppers; those are crazies used for ratings). But so far over the past few weeks I’ve been able to relax at home with plenty of supplies and not have to expose myself to the panicked crowds at COSTCO buying up all the toilet paper.

And as an introvert who hates crowds, that alone makes it all worth it


----------



## Umbran

Sadras said:


> My logic tells me that one should take the deaths over the total closed cases to get a more accurate percentage




There's effectively two different numbers:

1) If you end up going to the hospital and getting tested or otherwise officially diagnosed.  The numbers at that handy link Sadras mentioned seem to be of this sort - it refers to "confirmed cases" ad such.

2) If you catch the disease at all, what is the chance of mortality.  This includes an estimate for the people who do not get officially diagnosed.  This is what an epedemiologist calls the "mortality rate", generally.  For a disease like the flu, there are tons of people who never get diagnosed officially.


----------



## Umbran

Dausuul said:


> How about everybody who isn't an epidemiologist quits batting numbers around that the actual epidemiologists haven't yet nailed down?




Armchair epidemiology.  "My logic says..."  

Yeah, folks, there are people who do this professionally.  They know how diseases spread.  You really think your personal assessment is better?

There have, as yet, been no cases of community transmission of covid-19 in Boston proper - all our cases come from known individual sources (basically, all from one Biogen conference).  

But... Harvard University's doctors and lawyers seem to agree - students are being sent home.  Everyone's off campus by Sunday the 15th, and wil stay away until the end of the semester.  All classes are to continue online instead.


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


----------



## Umbran

Lem23 said:


> Talking of taking precautions and not being an idiot:
> 
> {keynote speaker and balloons...}
> 
> WTF?




_headdesk_


----------



## Panda-s1

honestly I feel like we should appreciate we have things like skype and/or discord and roll 20 to help us do things like play rpgs online. we wouldn't be having this discussion 20 years ago, and even 10 years ago it would be tenuous at best. 30 years ago we'd just have to cancel altogether (though it wouldn't surprise me if some crafty gamers did this sort of thing over the phone, as expensive as that sounds).

currently I'm working from home, the powers that be finally decided this was the best idea. idk if we'd postpone the game I'm currently in, but we don't meet in public so the concern isn't as great.



GreyLord said:


> Most likely it is the flu (and we are all rather healthy...I think...so even if we get it I think we are okay) rather than the COVID 19 because, as I said, no confirmed cases in the area, but it sparked an interesting discussion on the Corona virus and what should be done.



flu is still bad. we should all be responsible (unike me) and get the flu shot, that's something we can control and fight, unlike covid.


Sacrosanct said:


> People used to give me a hard time for being a prepper (not like what you see on doomsday preppers; those are crazies used for ratings). But so far over the past few weeks I’ve been able to relax at home with plenty of supplies and not have to expose myself to the panicked crowds at COSTCO buying up all the toilet paper.
> 
> And as an introvert who hates crowds, that alone makes it all worth it



toilet paper I get, but why tf are people buying bottled water? we still have running water, guys.


----------



## Beleriphon

Celebrim said:


> What exactly do you think is a rational reaction to a disease with apparently an R0 of higher than 2.5 and a mortality rate of higher than 3.4%?




SARS had a mortality rate of over 10%. MERS had a mortality rate of 34%.

As of right now we don't know what the actual mortality rate in the general populace is, in part because we can't test enough people. Even in the US having at last check something like 200,000 test kits being made available doesn't help, since two kits are used per person to confirm, and only a limited number can be processed per day. So, we are unlikely to have anything approaching an accurate value.

Here's a good source on what to look for in media reports to be able to determine if it is accurately reporting information, or what kind of information you want to look out for:








						I Lived Through SARS and Reported on Ebola. These Are the Questions We Should Be Asking About Coronavirus.
					

For concerned civilians and journalists covering the coronavirus, the figures and projections can be overwhelming, frightening or confusing. Here’s what reporter Caroline Chen is focusing on to keep things as accurate and clear as possible.




					www.propublica.org
				




As of right now 3.4% mortality rate is among confirmed cases, the actual value could be much, much lower since many more people could be asymptomatic (which is a real problem), or simply not have particularly serious symptoms and never get tested.

As for the R0 that is a moving target, just like the mortality rate. It is probably more accurate than the mortality rate at the moment, but again it is in flux and will more than likely change.

Just a data point for consideration: the US mortality rate for influenza and pneumonia last year was 6.9%.

South Korea for example is reporting that the mortality rate is around 0.6%, that is based on 1100 per million residents. Compare that value to the US which is reporting 3.4% mortality, but has administered 7 tests per million residents.



> I'm not denying that there is a certain amount of hype, but those two numbers I think pretty much tell the whole story.   You either believe those numbers are real, or you don't - in which case your distrust extends to far more than just 'the media'.
> 
> So, as for myself, I don't think we'll meet for two reasons.
> 
> First, and most importantly, for the sake of people outside our group who would be at high risk in the event of a general epidemic. For the sake of the elderly, it just doesn't make any sense to put our enjoyment ahead of their lives.




I actually don't think it is distrust, at least not for me. I trust the media to be report what they have accurately, but the problem is they often don't ask the right questions to get reliable and reasonable information. And that comes down to not knowing what to ask, or why to ask certain questions.



> And secondly, several members of my group have the single most important co-morbidity factor - high blood pressure.  So, even though mortality in our age group is quite low, with the high blood pressure present in it's in the 1% range.   And that's to not even get into the relatively high risk that they'd need to be on oxygen for 2 to 4 weeks.




That seems like a pretty good reason right there. If you're at risk, don't put yourself at risk. If you aren't at risk, and aren't like to spread the virus to others at risk, it probably isn't worth disrupting your life over.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Yeah, without those options, we'd be stuck in case of a lockdown. I suppose I could field the question of playing to Mrs. Redhammer, but she'd probably give me the same look as the last time I broached the subject.

In the 80s, I actually did run a number of AD&D sessions with friends via the phone. Only local calls, mind you.

I suspect that at work we're going to be told that working from home is mandatory soon enough. I'm lucky I have that option. The aforementioned missus works at a salon, and will likely be out-of-pocket come a lockdown/quarantine situation.



Panda-s1 said:


> honestly I feel like we should appreciate we have things like skype and/or discord and roll 20 to help us do things like play rpgs online. we wouldn't be having this discussion 20 years ago, and even 10 years ago it would be tenuous at best. 30 years ago we'd just have to cancel altogether (though it wouldn't surprise me if some crafty gamers did this sort of thing over the phone, as expensive as that sounds).
> 
> currently I'm working from home, the powers that be finally decided this was the best idea. idk if we'd postpone the game I'm currently in, but we don't meet in public so the concern isn't as great.


----------



## Beleriphon

Oh, I just found this. Seems like a pretty solid list of stuff about COVID-19 and coronavirus in general.









						Coronavirus: Essential Reads
					

Stay informed with these must-reads on the global outbreak.




					blog.getpocket.com


----------



## Panda-s1

Ralif Redhammer said:


> In the 80s, I actually did run a number of AD&D sessions with friends via the phone. Only local calls, mind you.



huh, was this with speaker phone? I can't imagine it wouldn't be awkward otherwise lol.


Ralif Redhammer said:


> I suspect that at work we're going to be told that working from home is mandatory soon enough. I'm lucky I have that option. The aforementioned missus works at a salon, and will likely be out-of-pocket come a lockdown/quarantine situation.



yeah, my job can easily be done at home, but I'm very worried for the people who have jobs that have to be done on location. hopefully this doesn't last long :/


----------



## robus

lowkey13 said:


> The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace. The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.



That tweet thread was sobering stuff!


----------



## robus

Sadras said:


> My logic tells me that one should take the deaths over the total closed cases to get a more accurate percentage - because active cases can still lead to more deaths. Ofcourse there is the estimated part of the formula which messes it all up a bit.




But actually that's not accurate because people are also dying of secondary complications (the pneumonia the Italian doctor mentions). And the reason they're dying of that is because there aren't the medical resources to handle the number of cases and this is why it is a serious problem. If we can keep a lid on the contagion then the medical resources should be able to cope (and, in the process, save many lives). If we don't, medical resources will be overwhelmed and more people will die who would otherwise have survived.

We need to stop spreading the virus. Not because we ourselves might suffer, but because we will overwhelm our hospitals as is happening in northern Italy.


----------



## Umbran

Beleriphon said:


> Just a data point for consideration: the US mortality rate for influenza and pneumonia last year was 6.9%.




Cite, please?

"CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. "





__





						Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu  Season | CDC
					

CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.




					www.cdc.gov
				




That puts the mortality rate _for influenza_ down around 0.1%. "Pneumonia and influenza" isn't a great comparison, because pneumonia has many, many different sources.


----------



## Beleriphon

Umbran said:


> Cite, please?
> 
> "CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. "
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu  Season | CDC
> 
> 
> CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That puts the mortality rate _for influenza_ down around 0.1%. "Pneumonia and influenza" isn't a great comparison, because pneumonia has many, many different sources.




Misread the statistics. It is for the current year up to the week ending Feb 22, 2020. That's still pretty high for combined flue and pneumonia. As for where I dug it up, CDC website below.









						Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report
					

Learn more about the weekly influenza surveillance report (FluView) prepared by the Influenza Division.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## MarkB

Our gaming group in the UK, which generally consists of around 30 people around five tables in a three-room venue every Friday night, is so far taking a "wait-and-see" approach. I'm hoping we don't come to regret that.


----------



## tommybahama

Umbran said:


> Cite, please?




It's probably deaths per hospitalizations: 34k deaths out of 490k hospitalizations = 6.9% mortality rate.


----------



## Sadras

robus said:


> But actually that's not accurate because people are also dying of secondary complications (the pneumonia the Italian doctor mentions).




Are you saying these secondary complication deaths add to the mortality rate of the virus or are you just saying there are additional related deaths we should also take into consideration ( in general)?


----------



## Sadras

Umbran said:


> There's effectively two different numbers:
> 
> ...(snip)...
> 
> 2) If you catch the disease at all, what is the chance of mortality.  This includes an estimate for the people who do not get officially diagnosed.  This is what an epedemiologist calls the "mortality rate", generally.  For a disease like the flu, there are tons of people who never get diagnosed officially.




And (2) was covered by the part left out of the quote of my words *"Ofcourse there is the estimated part of the formula which messes it all up a bit." *



> Yeah, folks, there are people who do this professionally. They know how diseases spread. You really think your personal assessment is better?




And plenty of professionals mess up repeatedly. This is also a general discussion amongst posters not those professionals.


----------



## Umbran

Sadras said:


> And (2) was covered by the part left out of the quote of my words *"Ofcourse there is the estimated part of the formula which messes it all up a bit." *




I wanted to make it explicit and clear.



> And plenty of professionals mess up repeatedly.




This is not an arugment to trust your own assessment over the professionals.  Professionals mess up.  Non-professionals should be messing up a lot more.  And, professionals have peer review.  And the actual original data.  And far better understanding of the subject matter.

General distrust of knowledge professionals is a thing.  It is a thing that causes more issues than it solves, by a wide margin.


----------



## Bitbrain

Covid-19 is expected to hit my community next week.  We aren’t expecting to play again until next month, but if someone does get sick in the coming days, it’s already been agreed that we’ll delay the game by a few weeks at minimum.

Local news is already reporting that it has a long incubation period, so I’m wanting everyone to be good and recovered before we play again...


----------



## Celebrim

Beleriphon said:


> South Korea for example is reporting that the mortality rate is around 0.6%...




No disrespect is intended, but I did say that I just wanted to drop this and and you don't even know the mathematical formula for mortality rate.   If I seem short, it's because I've heard that spurious claim about SK "mortality rate" an innumerable number of times.


----------



## Azzy

Fortunately, my group plays online. I was majorly sick this past week (no, corona hasn't reached my area yet) and I was still able to play thanks to the wonders of the internet.

However, I am taking the coronavirus very serious as my mum is 80 and has COPD (I'm her care giver) and my brother is currently in the hospital on assisted breathing.


----------



## Sacrosanct

As of 5 hours ago, in South Korea (probably the best country we have that tested a large part of the population and thus has the best sample size of actual confirmed cases), they have 58 deaths and 7513 confirmed cases.  That's 0.8% fatality.

Those are probably the most reliable figures we have on mortality so far because they're testing pretty much everyone who is sick because their test kits are widely available.  Compared to say, the US, where hardly anyone is getting tested, and those who are, are only those showing the most severe symptoms.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Celebrim said:


> No disrespect is intended, but I did say that I just wanted to drop this and and you don't even know the mathematical formula for mortality rate.   If I seem short, it's because I've heard that spurious claim about SK "mortality rate" an innumerable number of times.




No disrespect intended, but you were the one to say the real mortality rate is 5.7% without providing any citation that proves that (and runs counter to what every health expert has said), and you were the one that said there is weak evidence that there are a lot of undiagnosed cases out there, which flies in the face of logic seeing as how just considering the US, we have hardly tested anyone so far, and only the most severe symptoms.  And that also flies in the fact of what the medical experts are saying, and also was claimed without any evidence on your part.

So if you're tired of always arguing these figures with people, perhaps it's _you _who is using false and inaccurate information, and not everyone else?


----------



## DND_Reborn

The last thing I will add is a gross oversight on my own part, and one that seems to be made by others as well.

I was considering the mortality rate around 3.6% of those infected from information such as (roughly) 4250 deaths in 118,000 cases--but this is actually pretty inaccurate. Sure, if you think 4250/118000 == 3.6% that is true.

But we should only consider the cases that have run their course, for better or worse. Then you are looking at 4250 deaths and 64250 recovered (again, rough estimates). That is a total of 68500 cases that have been resolved. Looking at it that way, the mortality rate is really closer to about 6.2%

From: Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

I am not changing my position overall, but the oversight needed to be pointed out once I saw it today.

All I can say is I wish to the best to all who are facing this crisis head-on, and hope the rest of us never have to.


----------



## Tallifer

I use it as an excuse not to meet people I would otherwise only meet under some vague sense of social obligation. 
Also, I almost always play and run D&D on-line.


----------



## MarkB

dnd4vr said:


> I am not changing my position overall, but the oversight needed to be pointed out once I saw it today.
> 
> All I can say is I wish to the best to all who are facing this crisis head-on, and hope the rest of us never have to.



Make no mistake: If you're in a nation which has rising reported cases of this disease, you're facing this crisis head-on.


----------



## DND_Reborn

MarkB said:


> Make no mistake: If you're in a nation which has rising reported cases of this disease, you're facing this crisis head-on.



Seriously? Why bother pointing this out? What purpose do you think this can possibly serve?


----------



## Sacrosanct

dnd4vr said:


> Seriously? Why bother pointing this out? What purpose do you think this can possibly serve?




Can't speak for Mark, but I'm guessing to let people know they should probably prepare for it?  How many people are prepared in the US if we do the same thing Italy just did?


----------



## MarkB

dnd4vr said:


> Seriously? Why bother pointing this out? What purpose do you think this can possibly serve?



Maybe persuading you (and others) to be a little more proactive than just "hoping" a global pandemic will somehow miss your little corner of the globe.


----------



## DND_Reborn

MarkB said:


> Maybe persuading you (and others) to be a little more proactive than just "hoping" a global pandemic will somehow miss your little corner of the globe.




Well, you won't (at least with me) and your message could have been written in general instead of citing me personally. I had a nice parting message for the thread, and you had to attack me for it?

Practicing good hygiene and taking other measures to avoid the flu pretty much helps with the virus as well. I shop once a week for food and get enough for the next week, with sufficient staples to go for two weeks if I am busy and don't have time to stop for a week. During the flu season, I already avoid physical contact with most strangers. I cover my mouth when I sneeze or cough. I don't touch knobs or handles on public doors unless I have to. I keep at least 2-3 feet from people, often more like 5 feet, when I am talking to them in public.

So, with everything I already do, I am not about to hide in my home for weeks. I am going to live my life and enjoy it while I can because there is no point in living in fear. Take reasonable precautions in everything and be safe in general, but don't let remote fear control you. I've said that in my posts.

And yeah, I live in NY state, we have some cases, but I don't consider myself as facing this crisis head-on. I am living my life as I would even without it happening.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> ... Let’s stop saying it’s a bad flu ...So have patience, too, that you cannot go to the theater, museums or gym. Try to have mercy on that myriad of older people you could exterminate.
> 
> Dr. Daniele Macchini,




With all due respect to the good doctor manning the front lines, a “bad flu” wiped out 50 million people before we had the vector of high-speed jet travel affordable for a vast cross-section of humanity.


----------



## MarkB

dnd4vr said:


> Well, you won't (at least with me) and your message could have been written in general instead of citing me personally. I had a nice parting message for the thread, and you had to attack me for it?



I replied to you because you made a statement that I considered to need refuting. Sorry if you considered that an attack.

If there are a few cases in your state now, then you're in the situation Italy was in two weeks ago. If people in your area react with complacency, you could find yourself in the situation that Italy is in today - or worse.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Not an MD, but I grew up in a house with one.  He’s an allergist- a subspecialty of immunology.  So, while epidemics aren’t his area of expertise, the diseases that cause them are, to a certain extent.  So I’ve heard 50+ years of lectures on how NOT to transmit the flu and coronaviruses like the common cold.  And it’s pretty much what is coming out of the CDC & WHO regarding Covid-19.

Am I taking special precautions?  No.  I’m washing my hands and coughing/sneezing into my elbow or down my shirt, as per usual.  (Allergies.)

I don’t have any plans to go to large gatherings in the near future other than going to church in Sundays.  The diocese, however, has suspended the distribution of wine and passing peace, and is strongly discouraging holding hands during the Our Father.

I’m not currently participating in my gaming group because they’ve gone on a poker binge.  Great game, but it doesn’t grab me, and I’m among the worst players  in the group because of my disengagement.  (They play well enough to pay for their poker trips; I only beat them when I’ve been drinking enough they can’t read me anymore.)

I fully expect a trade show I usually go to in March/April to be cancelled or rescheduled.


----------



## robus

Dannyalcatraz said:


> With all due respect to the good doctor manning the front lines, a “bad flu” wiped out 50 million people before we had the vector of high-speed jet travel affordable for a vast cross-section of humanity.




I’m sure she’ll appreciate the mansplaining when she gets a break from her shift!

Edit: my bad, the doctor in question is a man.


----------



## Beleriphon

robus said:


> I’m sure she’ll appreciate the mansplaining when she gets a break from her shift!




I think Danny was more pointing out that even a "bad flu" is nothing to scoff at. And by all accounts COVID-19 is immensely more virulent. I'm not personally really concerned about it killing anybody I know. I lived near enough to Toronto during SARS for it to be something of a concern, but the Canadian health authorities have generally been pretty good about containment.


----------



## NotAYakk

So, here is an actual reasoned and backed discussion of what is going on.

Tomas Pueyo

Italy and Israel and SK and Japan and China are not overreacting.

France, UK, USA are in trouble.

Unless someone is saturation testing, you should assume 1 death means 800 infected.  Washington has 24 deaths, so probably close to 20,000 people are infected today; on the other hand, 20 of them are in one building, so maybe only 3200.  Error bars are large.

There are 190 confirmed cases, but that is just because they aren't saturation testing.  But 190 is not a realistic number with zero controls, no saturation testing, and 4 distinct clusters of deaths.

It takes ~20 days for someone to die of this.  In ~20 days, each sick person infects ~8 people uncontrolled.  The death rate is ~1%.  So for each person who dies, there where about 100 people infected who didn't die 20 days later, and those 100 people infected 800 more people.

There are large error bars on this.  But this matches what happened in Italy and elsewhere when they started saturation testing; the number of cases sky rocketed "out of nowhere".  Without saturation testing, you get only the people who are really sick ~3 weeks into their illness, by which time each represents ~40 people in the community who have the virus and are either still developing symptoms, or didn't get really sick.

Again, there are large error bars; 40 could really be 15-400.  800 could really be 200-2000.  But it gives you an order of magnitude.

Deaths are easier to count, as people get really sick before they die, and they seek medical help, and there are enough tests to test the people who are really sick with what is probably Covid.

NJ/NY has 1 death, so probably ~800 cases (wide error bars).  Bay area has ~600 using different math (no deaths yet).  Paris area has 20,000-100,000 (many deaths).  UK has 5,000 based off deaths.

If they introduced mitigating measures today, their peak number of detected cases and deaths per day would happen in 3 weeks.  If they wait a week, the peak doubles.  If the peak passes their health care capabilities (as it has in Italy), death rate will climb.

Areas that mitigated early enough to stay under health care capacity have a death rate of 0.9%.  Areas that don't have a death rate of 4%+.  Currently nobody in the USA is mitigating enough.


----------



## robus

Beleriphon said:


> I think Danny was more pointing out that even a "bad flu" is nothing to scoff at. And by all accounts COVID-19 is immensely more virulent. I'm not personally really concerned about it killing anybody I know. I lived near enough to Toronto during SARS for it to be something of a concern, but the Canadian health authorities have generally been pretty good about containment.



I understand, I just think she was talking symptoms rather than virulence. Trying to compare it to people’s experience rather than historical record which would be meaningless to most.


----------



## Nikosandros

robus said:


> I understand, I just think she was talking symptoms rather than virulence. Trying to compare it to people’s experience rather than historical record which would be meaningless to most.



I agree with your post, but that doctor is a man. If you follow the link to the Italian page you can see a photo and Daniele is a male name in Italian.


----------



## Sacrosanct

For the record, if it seems like this has my attention, it’s because I live in Ground Zero for the virus in the United States.  The first case of an American was the woman on the cruise who lives a few miles away. The first community case in the US period was a janitor who lives about two miles away. The 22 hospital workers quarantined are from my hospital down the road. The middle school kid who just tested positive is from my school district.

We haven’t been hit as hard as Seattle because that was in a retirement home, but we were the first to get positive results, and more every week. Hillsboro, Oregon. Lucky me lol. So yeah, I’m paying attention.


----------



## robus

Nikosandros said:


> I agree with your post, but that doctor is a man. If you follow the link to the Italian page you can see a photo and Daniele is a male name in Italian.



Ah my bad, I was thinking of this tweet thread and by the end forgot that she was translating. Apologies @Dannyalcatraz.


----------



## Doug McCrae

NotAYakk said:


> So, here is an actual reasoned and backed discussion of what is going on.
> 
> Tomas Pueyo



A very interesting (and terrifying for someone who lives in the UK) article. Thanks for posting. I think this excerpt is the most important part:


Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.​


----------



## Sadras

MarkB said:


> Maybe persuading you (and others) to be a little more proactive than just "hoping" a global pandemic will somehow miss your little corner of the globe.




This reminds me of when governments send thoughts and prayers after terrorist attacks.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Beleriphon said:


> I think Danny was more pointing out that even a "bad flu" is nothing to scoff at.



Bingo!


----------



## NotAYakk

Doug McCrae said:


> A very interesting (and terrifying for someone who lives in the UK) article. Thanks for posting. I think this excerpt is the most important part:
> ​
> Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
> Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
> Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.​



Washington State has 4 independent deaths (counting the one nursing home as one event) and 270 detected; they are missing 90%+ of their cases.

UK appears to be on top of it actually.  1.6% death rate to infected is a sign they may be near saturation testing.  The 6 deaths*80 multiplier is 480, and they have 324 positive tests; that is the right ballpark.  99% of tested are negative, which also looks like "saturation tests" and not just testing people who show up extremely sick and/or are travel-related to hot spots.

France has 33 deaths and 1800 detected cases.  *They are missing 90% of their infected.*
Spain has 35 deaths and 1700 detected cases.  *They are missing 90% of their infected.*

Germany has 2 deaths and 1100 detected cases.  Looks good so far.

California has 2 deaths and 160 cases.  Suspicious, they are missing almost 90%.  But small numbers.

NY+NJ has 1 death and 180 cases.  Also Suspicious, they are missing 80%.

So expect things to get bad in France, Spain and Washington State next.  France and Spain if they shut down everything today will still have a bad time.  Washington State could be either side of the edge.

If France and Spain introduce Italy/Wuhan style quarantine today, they will run out of hospital beds capable of ventilating patients.  State of Critical Care in France -- France has about 10,000 of them.


----------



## Sacrosanct

NotAYakk said:


> Washington State has 4 independent deaths (counting the one nursing home as one event) and 270 detected; they are missing 90%+ of their cases.
> 
> UK appears to be on top of it actually.  1.6% death rate to infected is a sign they may be near saturation testing.  The 6 deaths*80 multiplier is 480, and they have 324 positive tests; that is the right ballpark.  99% of tested are negative, which also looks like "saturation tests" and not just testing people who show up extremely sick and/or are travel-related to hot spots.
> 
> France has 33 deaths and 1800 detected cases.  *They are missing 90% of their infected.*
> Spain has 35 deaths and 1700 detected cases.  *They are missing 90% of their infected.*
> 
> Germany has 2 deaths and 1100 detected cases.  Looks good so far.
> 
> California has 2 deaths and 160 cases.  Suspicious, they are missing almost 90%.  But small numbers.
> 
> NY+NJ has 1 death and 180 cases.  Also Suspicious, they are missing 80%.
> 
> So expect things to get bad in France, Spain and Washington State next.  France and Spain if they shut down everything today will still have a bad time.  Washington State could be either side of the edge.
> 
> If France and Spain introduce Italy/Wuhan style quarantine today, they will run out of hospital beds capable of ventilating patients.  State of Critical Care in France -- France has about 10,000 of them.




Where are you getting your figures?  King county in Washington has 22 deaths alone. Why would you count the nursing home deaths as one death?  That’s awfully arbitrary.

How did you come to 90% not being counted?  What data are you basing that off of?


----------



## FireLance

Doug McCrae said:


> A very interesting (and terrifying for someone who lives in the UK) article. Thanks for posting. I think this excerpt is the most important part:
> ​
> Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
> Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
> Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.​



Good article. To put it in D&D terms, let's say the worst cases (call it 5% of those infected) need the full-time attention of a cleric to survive.

If you have 200 cases and 10 clerics, your mortality rate is 0%.
If you have 250 cases and 10 clerics, your mortality rate is 1%.
If you have 500 cases and 10 clerics, your mortality rate is 3%.
If you have 1,000 cases and 10 clerics, your mortality rate is 4%.
If you have 10,000 cases and 10 clerics, your mortality rate is 4.9%.


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## GreyLord

We are soooo close to finishing up our campaign at a spot where it can be put to rest (a good stopping point, not where we end it).  I suppose we will have one more session tomorrow and try to finish it up and then, as a precaution, close it up until we see where this entire thing is going.

The US sounds like it's screwed at this point.  Estimates seem to indicate hospital capacity is overwhelmed somewhere around May 6 give or take a week.

The UK sounds iffy.  I found this thread AMA UK HCID doctor on reddit

So...I'll be proactive.  It sounds if this isn't killed by warm weather (like many of the seasonal things go) we could have this epidemic go on for months. 

We all have phones though so I suppose we can go via the phone if we want to continue gaming.  I have copies of their sheets and can make adjustments as they can so they match. 

I have an appointment at one of the hospitals at one of the places they are dealing with the patients of this with a specialist next week (several hours away from me, our area has no cases that are confirmed at this point)...wondering if I should just cancel the appointment (not a life threatening condition for the specialist, just an annoying one) as it is IN the hospital where they are treating a person or two with the virus from what I understand.  I got a friendly reminder of the appointment with a warning about it from them today.

I think I'll be proactive on this, just in case from what I've read in the thread.


----------



## briggart

Living in Northern Italy, we moved our game to Skype even before the region wide lockdown was initiated. This seemed to me something that could go out of control very quickly, so I didn't want to take chances.

In our group we are mostly in our 30's and 40's and in relatively good health, so we should be reasonably safe. The main concern is contributing to the spread of the virus. This virus results in a high number of serious pneumonia, requiring various levels of hospitalization, ranging from oxygen breathing to artificial ventilation in ICU.

Italy has slightly more than 1 ICU every 10,000 inhabitants, slightly more than EU average. Business as usual, about 20% of these (a bit more than 1000) are available. What's happening now is that in just a few weeks we have almost completely saturated the ICUs, especially in Lombardy where the outbreak hit the hardest. New ICUs are being made available, and there are still available spots in the less affected areas, but we are now starting to have cases where there are no free ICU locally and people in no condition to be moved to another hospital are, basically, just left to die. To be clear, the ICU shortage affects everyone who needs it, regardless of whether they need it for COVID-19, a stroke, or they were in a car accident, etc.

So yes, it's probably true that the majority of those that will get this will experience just a mild illness, but if it is allowed to spread it will significantly stress the healthcare system causing all sorts of rippling effects.

So please do not panic, but also do not underestimate this!


----------



## akr71

This is the best link I've seen so far. I'm not a statistician, I'm a geographer, so raw numbers mean more to me (the map with graduated symbology just adds to the appeal). The recovery numbers are good to see also.

There are no confirmed cases where I live - yet. So, for right now it is business as usual - gaming and otherwise. My kids go on spring break next week and the neighboring province just went back after a week off. I imagine in about a week or two, all hell will break loose, because folks would rather have a good time on a beach or at Disney than exercise common sense and be cautious.


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## Umbran

Sacrosanct said:


> How did you come to 90% not being counted?  What data are you basing that off of?




It looks like working backwards: assume a 1.6% mortality rate.  If you have X deaths, those deaths are 1.6% of the infected population.

How many cases have you identified?  Compare that to this theoretical infected population.  The difference is what's not being counted.

This rides heavily on the estimated mortality rate, which is _an estimate_, of a virus we don't have a great handle on yet.  So, it should be taken with a grain of salt.

On the flip side, yes, we are probably missing most of the cases - our ability to test is not really up to snuff, and my understanding is that until very recently, testing was limited to those who had traveled to known infected areas (like northern Italy) and people who had direct contact with diagnosed carriers.  If you didn't meet those criteria, but had symptoms, you weren't tested, because the number of tests that could be performed was very limited.


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## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## Celebrim

What’s your risk of dying of COVID-19 - or inadvertently allowing the death of someone in your community?
					

As shown below, your personal risk, if you’re a young and healthy adult, of catching and dying of the COVID-19 coronavirus this week is fairly low: probably below or only slightly above your risk of accidental death from something else. The risk to older age groups and those with chronic diseases is




					www.linkedin.com


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## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## NotAYakk

So, every dead person means about 1000 (give or take) people infected in the community.  This is because when they die, they where infected 3 weeks ago typically, and on the order of 1% of people with functioning modern health care systems die from this.  So there where roughly 100 people who where infected at around the same time and didn't die.  Those 100 people each passed it on to 2 people, who passed it on to 2 people, and etc -- they have spread it to the 1000 people by the time the first person is dead.

This is a useful tool because if you aren't saturation testing everyone (only Italy, SK, Taiwan, Japan, and China - maybe UK and Canada - are coming close to this as far as I can tell), you don't catch the community-passed minor cases that look like the flu.

Second, few metro areas have capacity to handle 1000 people with serious symptoms from this.  So at around 10,000 cases in a region, the health care system breaks down, and they start having to triage care.  Fatality rates when there is a functioning health care system are < 1%; when they cannot treat it with modern tech, > 4%.

This means that at 10 deaths in an area (that aren't people brought in in already in quarantine from far away), you have about 10,000 ill (give or take), and in 3 weeks about 100-400 (give or take) will be dying if you immediately did a lockdown.

Every week the number of infected double in the wild.  And at some point it breaks the carrying capacity of your hospitals, like it did in Wuhan or Italy.  Then death rates go from < 1% to > 4%.

The delay between impact at hospitals and massive community measures to stop spread is *almost 3 weeks*.  In those 3 weeks outbreaks get *10-30 times worse*.  So to keep it from being a disaster, you have to hit the panic button long before your hospitals are in trouble, because most of the iceberg is under the water.

This is fine.


----------



## Celebrim

lowkey13 said:


> So, about the demographics of enworld ....




My impression is that we are on the right side of the median.


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## Celebrim

@NotAYakk : My calculation had been each death you found without prior knowledge of the cluster meant 264 unknown cases, but otherwise, you have the general idea.  The exact numbers depend on assumptions about R0 and mortality rate, etc.   The important point is that it is large.


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## lowkey13

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## Sacrosanct

I agree that most people have not been tested or identified.  That seems pretty obvious by looking at how many tests we've done in the US compared to other countries.   But I guess my sticking point is that this isn't something to go around tossing out numbers we're just guessing about.  Any numbers we use about rates, %, how many are missed, etc should be backed up with expert opinion at the very least.   So if someone says 90% of the positive cases haven't been identified yet in the US, where is the actual citation that backs that up?  There's enough misinformation out there already, and this is a very serious issue, so we shouldn't just be guessing.


----------



## Paul Farquhar

lowkey13 said:


> I would say that, overall, we skew a bit older than, say, the typical person who mostly communicates via snapchat.



Over 40? Yes.

Over 70? I don't think so.


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## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## Umbran

lowkey13 said:


> Okay? And that has to do what, exactly, with the approximate ages of those who comment frequently on enworld and those who visit the website, as opposed to those who use snapchat?




Well, the thread's about coronavirus, not snapchat.  Snapchat is a totally different disease....

Is snapchat even "the thing" anymore?


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## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## Umbran

lowkey13 said:


> I hear it's TikTok or something. But what do I know? I'm one of the olds now. If I know about it, it probably isn't it.




Eventually, they'll come around to writing letters again.


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## Acolyte of Zothique

Umbran said:


> So, to put this in perspective for folks who are not data scientists or statisticians...
> 
> The R0 is the number of people that a sick person will then infect.  It is _highly_ dependent on how the population responds to the epidemic.
> 
> Typically, the flu has an R0 of about 1.3.  Covid-19 has an R0 somewhere between 2 and 3 outside of China - likely around 2.5.  This may not sound like much of a difference, but after 20 "generations" of passing along an illness, an R0 of 1.3 would result in 146 infections, but an R0 of 2.5 would result in 36 million infections.
> 
> The number of people found with covid-19 infections doubles every 3 to 6 days.  Ten days ago, Italy thought it was fine.  Today?  Their hospital system is overrun, and they are putting up tents outside hospitals to deal wiht the overflow, and there's nationwide policies to restrict spread of the disease.
> 
> Compared to the reading I've done, the mortality rate Celebrim has here is high, and I home he doens't mind a correction. His number has been floating around, and seems to be based on a statement of the WHO that 3.4 percent of people with reported covid-19 infections worldwide had died.  This is _NOT THE SAME_ as the mortality risk for infection, as many infections happen but never see a health care professional.  There is an esimation step that happens between Celebrim's number, and the actual mortality risk.
> 
> The flu has a death rate of around 0.1% of infections. Marc Lipsitch, the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard, estimates that for covid-19 it is 1-2%. The latest epedemiological modeling found a 1.6% rate in China in February, sixteen times higher than the flu.




In Italy at present the Case Fatality Rate is over 6%. This is huge and increasing numbers of younger people are experiencing severe illness. There are likely specific reasons why the CFR rate is so high in Italy but still...

The CFR is the percentage of people who get COVID 19 who then go on to die.

Do not underestimate the coronavirus. Anyone who still insists this is the Flu is actually denying the reality of the situation.

I am a health professional myself in the UK National Health Service (NHS). The NHS will be overwhelmed and I am daily looking at the research into the spread of the virus. I am the DM for my group and we play at a D&D Meetup here in London. I am on the verge of cancelling my game; I'm going to run it this Sunday but that may be the last session. COVID 19 cases here are on the cusp of increasing exponentially just as they did in Italy. We are about to increase our testing from 1500 per day to 10000 per day.


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## Sacrosanct

Acolyte of Zothique said:


> In Italy at present the Case Fatality Rate is over 6%. This is huge and increasing numbers of younger people are experiencing severe illness. There are likely specific reasons why the CFS rate is so high in Italy but still...
> 
> Do not underestimate the coronavirus. Anyone who still insists this is the Flu is actually denying the reality of the situation.
> 
> I am a health professional myself in the UK National Health Service (NHS). The NHS will be overwhelmed and I am daily looking at the research into the spread of the virus. I am the DM for my group and we play at a D&D Meetup here in London. I am on the verge of cancelling my game; I'm going to run it this Sunday but that may be the last session. COVID 19 cases here are on the cusp of increasing exponentially just as they did in Italy.





There are still a lot of unknowns, but what we _*do *_know, it's in my opinion that anyone who still compares this with the flu is either grossly mistaken, or being irresponsible (depending on how much information they've been presented so far determining which of the two categories they fall into).

I recall one health professional saying an average of 30 people a day are being admitted into the hospitals in Italy now.  Every one of them with severe symptoms.  That doesn't happen with the flu.  It's not just comparing fatality rates, or how contagious it is.  It's also how overwhelmed our healthcare system will be.  Best healthcare in the world doesn't matter if you can't get access to it.


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## NotAYakk

Acolyte of Zothique said:


> In Italy at present the Case Fatality Rate is over 6%. This is huge and increasing numbers of younger people are experiencing severe illness. There are likely specific reasons why the CFS rate is so high in Italy but still...
> 
> Do not underestimate the coronavirus. Anyone who still insists this is the Flu is actually denying the reality of the situation.
> 
> I am a health professional myself in the UK National Health Service (NHS). The NHS will be overwhelmed and I am daily looking at the research into the spread of the virus. I am the DM for my group and we play at a D&D Meetup here in London. I am on the verge of cancelling my game; I'm going to run it this Sunday but that may be the last session. COVID 19 cases here are on the cusp of increasing exponentially just as they did in Italy.



It is increasing exponentially *everywhere*, except Italy, SK, China, Taiwan and maybe Japan at this point.

If we assume 6% fatality rate if untreated by ICU, infected doubles every week if uncontrolled by travel/contact restrictions, and 1% death rate if treated by ICU.

UK's death count is 6, diagnosed is 453.  So 6*800 is about 4800 actual cases.  You have 10% coverage of the sick; of everyone with Covid 19, roughly 1 in 10 has been tested and found to have it.

UK has 4000 intensive care and a step down from it beds.  On the order of 10%-20% of patients need it.  Your utilization is probably north of 80% on those beds right now.

So if you introduced a lock down *today*, your intensive care bed supply would be stretched to its limit but not break.  Probably 10,000 total cases, 100 dead (1% death rate) over 3-5 weeks.

Wait a week.  20,000 total cases.  Half of those who need intensive care just die because you don't have the equipment.  100 + 600 = 700 dead.

Wait a week.  40,000 total cases.  3/4 of those who need intensive care just die because you don't have the equipment.  100 + 1800 = 1900 dead.

Wait a week.  80,000 total cases.  4300 dead.

Never do lock down, just let the virus burn itself out.  66 million people in UK.  1/4 get infected within 5 months.  6% death rate among infected because hospitals can do nothing, they don't have the equipment to handle it.  1 million dead.

On the plus side, France and Spain are a few weeks ahead of you along this track.  I suspect even Boris will do something eventually.


----------



## Sadras

akr71 said:


> This is the best link I've seen so far.




Worldometer has more bang for your click and it is more up to date.


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## akr71

Sadras said:


> Worldometer has more bang for your click and it is more up to date.



Yes, I've seen that one too, but I'm a geographer, so I like their map and graduated symbology. While my area still has 0 confirmed cases, up to date isn't as important to me. My spouse is front-line health care worker, who has been in almost daily conference calls as they prepare for the inevitable.

I find the data and maps interesting, but I trust in my wife and her coworkers regarding my community's well-being more than anything I read here or elsewhere on the internet.

Edit: just read that the Canadian gov't is pumping $1B into healthcare to deal with COVID-19 and "Ottawa is also providing support to workers who have been put under quarantine or told to self-isolate by waiving the one-week waiting period for employment insurance." For non-Canadians that means you won't miss a paycheck if you call in sick (and don't have sick-leave). I've always been irritable when people show up to work sick - you aren't proving how tough you are, you are spreading your illness around, go home.


----------



## Sadras

akr71 said:


> ...but I trust in my wife and her coworkers regarding my community's well-being more than anything I read here or elsewhere on the internet.




I agree with your above statement, but speaking about trust issues - I have a colleague who denies the reality of it all for a number of reasons*. She is also against vaccinating so that is her angle. I have asked her how does she imagine the collusion between so many governments and health personnel to exist - but I do not get much of an answer there just the usual elites + power + puppet governments. I hope she doesnt experience it because her youngest has down syndrome with a weak immune system.

*social media platforms such a youbtute direct you to mainstream news sites
*not seen current vlogs of people with with the virus (or that have recovered) that has not been pushed through via mainstream media
*except for a few public officials there are no names (again via mainstream media).


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## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## NotAYakk

People will happily vote for 10$ to fix something and won't vote for 1$ to prevent it from breaking in the first place.

Stopping this will be hard.  It will require political will.  And I guess letting it get bad enough in a region that a few 100 people will die before enacting measures (so, you enact measures when there are 10 community deaths, deal with grumbles, watch as 100-400 die, then say "look what we prevented"?)

Or maybe we really need to start showing some disaster videos of what is actually going on with this virus to the general public.

But how do you *show* a doctor or nurse forced to let someone suffocate to death in a hallway because the equipment that could save them is already in use to save someone else? How do you show it happening 100 times a day?


----------



## briggart

NotAYakk said:


> People will happily vote for 10$ to fix something and won't vote for 1$ to prevent it from breaking in the first place.
> 
> Stopping this will be hard.  It will require political will.  And I guess letting it get bad enough in a region that a few 100 people will die before enacting measures (so, you enact measures when there are 10 community deaths, deal with grumbles, watch as 100-400 die, then say "look what we prevented"?)
> 
> Or maybe we really need to start showing some disaster videos of what is actually going on with this virus to the general public.
> 
> But how do you *show* a doctor or nurse forced to let someone suffocate to death in a hallway because the equipment that could save them is already in use to save someone else? How do you show it happening 100 times a day?



This picture was taken yesterday at a nearby hospital, here in Lombardy. These are all ambulances waiting to deliver patients to the hospital, the queue went up to 14 yesterday. It's not people dying, but it's something you rarely see outside natural disasters and the like.


----------



## Umbran

lowkey13 said:


> And the thing about public health is that when it works, you don't even notice it! Which is to say- if you assume that the powers that be (TM) scramble and manage to minimize the impact and spread of this, people will be all like, "Well, guess it was a false alarm. No big deal. All that panic over nothing." Whereas if they can't, those same people will say that they weren't protected.




Yeah.

So, Monday in Boston, the city cancelled the upcoming St. Patrick's Day Parade, which is kind of a big thing, and drives a lot of business downtown that day.  The mayor, having no other public appearances scheduled yesterday, made an opportunity to speak with the press.  And he was asked by one reporter what he had to say to merchants in the area that were complaining about the loss of traffic.

And, he said pretty much what I hoped he would.  In only a _slighly_ annoyed tone, he said (in effect), "Folks, this is not a thing you complain about.  This is a reasonable step to make sure your customers stay safe and healthy to come back later."


----------



## Mistwell

Erik Tenkar, of Tenkar's Tavern, is in the ICU, isolation, and awaiting results from a CV test. 

He believed he had a case of Con Crud from TotalCon in Massachusetts. Thought it was just an upper respiratory infection. Confirmed right now he has pneumonia in one lung. 

We will see if it's Corona Virus.


----------



## Michael Silverbane

Mistwell said:


> Erik Tenkar, of Tenkar's Tavern, is in the ICU, isolation, and awaiting results from a CV test.
> 
> He believed he had a case of Con Crud from TotalCon in Massachusetts. Thought it was just an upper respiratory infection. Confirmed right now he has pneumonia in one lung.
> 
> We will see if it's Corona Virus.




Even if it is not COVID-19, pneumonia is bad news. I hope he has a swift recovery.


----------



## Umbran

Mistwell said:


> Erik Tenkar, of Tenkar's Tavern, is in the ICU, isolation, and awaiting results from a CV test.
> 
> He believed he had a case of Con Crud from TotalCon in Massachusetts. Thought it was just an upper respiratory infection. Confirmed right now he has pneumonia in one lung.
> 
> We will see if it's Corona Virus.




Well, crud.  Thank you.  I have some local fans I should inform...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

lowkey13 said:


> I think that you might have misunderstood the point of the quote. Context, in all things, matters. Or, put another way, while you might be technically correct (the BEST kind of correct), that wasn't what was being discussed.
> 
> Use this as an example-
> 
> "Why worry, it's just a cold."
> 
> I mean, a person _could_ say that, given that "cold" is the name we give to several other coronaviruses that we collectively refer to as "getting a cold." But the use of that, while perhaps in some ways correct, is misleading.
> 
> With that in mind, let's look at what the doctor was referring to. One of the issues in Italy (as well as other places) is that people who desired for business to go on as usual kept telling people not to worry, it's just like "the flu," or at worse, "a bad flu." The reason that someone would refer to it in this way is it allowed people to put it in the context of something that isn't harmful, and that they experience on an annual basis. "Oh yeah, the flu. Well, that's not great, but whatever, it happens every year. No need to panic over the flu." Because that's the association most people have- what they experience on a yearly basis.
> 
> So when the doctor said this isn't like the flu (bad or otherwise), he was speaking to those who had been told not to worry- it's just a bad flu. Like happens every year. That was what he was saying. It's not just a "bad flu."
> 
> Which brings up two separate points:
> 
> A. Yes, the Spanish Flu was terrible. Historically terrible. But there is no one alive who remembers how terrible it was. That's not a useful comparator. And sometimes the flu can be exceptionally, pandemically bad (not just "bad"). My father used to tell me about the '57 flu, and how going to college was like going to a ghost town. It was no Spanish Flu, but it was pretty terrible. Again, though, context matters. People who are comparing it to the flu (or a bad flu, even) aren't trying to trigger memories of the Spanish Flu! They are trying to minimize the severity of the issue.*
> 
> B. There are several related issues with Covid19 that are also dangerous when it spreads unchecked. Among these are the issues that it presents in many ways in a similar manner to flu and/or cold (when both are still circulating) and that it will overwhelm hospital capacity and/or health care workers; for the issue of health care capacity, it isn't just the immediate problems caused by Covid19, there are the other, separate issues of other health care issues that either won't be, or can't be treated in a timely manner.
> 
> Now, all of that said, I want to reiterate the point I made at the beginning. I am not an authority on any of this. Please pay attention to trusted health authorities in your area and not to random people on the internet and facebook.
> 
> Stay safe.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Whether correctly, to reduce panic and put it in perspective, or incorrectly and dangerously, is an exercise for others to decide.



I understood the point.  I understand the context.

But minimizing the flu as a comparison is NOT a good thing.  *MY* context is that I grew up the son of an MD who complains annually of the preventability of the worst flu outcomes. When you minimize the flu, people don’t hear that it’s LESS dangerous, they hear that it isn’t dangerous at all. I can’t tell you how many people I know personally who routinely eschew flu vaccinations. They’re not anti vaxxers, they just don’t think it’s worth their time.

Even though its fatality rate is orders of magnitude lower than any of the recently emergent coronaviruses, people forget that flu _still kills a lot people, _and its lower fatality rate is largely due to vaccines and public health measures that help contain its spread.  The H1N1 outbreak of 2009 infected 700m-1bn people and killed @580,000 worldwide.

Its danger lies in its ubiquity and the tyranny of statistics...but its still dangerous,


----------



## Panda-s1

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I understood the point.  I understand the context.
> 
> But minimizing the flu as a comparison is NOT a good thing.  *MY* context is that I grew up the son of an MD who complains annually of the preventability of the worst flu outcomes. When you minimize the flu, people don’t hear that it’s LESS dangerous, they hear that it isn’t dangerous at all. I can’t tell you how many people I know personally who routinely eschew flu vaccinations. They’re not anti vaxxers, they just don’t think it’s worth their time.
> 
> Even though its fatality rate is orders of magnitude lower than any of the recently emergent coronaviruses, people forget that flu _still kills a lot people, _and its lower fatality rate is largely due to vaccines and public health measures that help contain its spread.  The H1N1 outbreak of 2009 infected 700m-1bn people and killed @580,000 worldwide.
> 
> Its danger lies in its ubiquity and the tyranny of statistics...but its still dangerous,



I'm definitely guilty of not getting my flu shot. last year was the first time I even bothered, I should really get mine now even though we're on the brink of spring.

I think a lot of people also don't understand that if Covid-19 reaches the levels of influenza *a lot* more people will die than there already are. like that's what we're trying to prevent right now.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yep!  Last I checked, we don’t have much success making vaccines for coronaviruses- hello, common cold!- so public health measures are our main line of defense.


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


----------



## Mistwell

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yep!  Last I checked, we don’t have much success making vaccines for coronaviruses- hello, common cold!- so public health measures are our main line of defense.




Migal Galilee out of Israel looks to be close to a vaccine. They had been working on an adaptable viral vaccine for four years (had an avian coronavirus Infectious Bronchitis Virus (IBV) vaccine from it) and were already on track to be ready for testing near now, and they seem pretty confident it's adaptable to this virus.


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


----------



## Celebrim

I was going to write a long essay, but I realize that this is one place I probably don't need to do so.

Thank you EnWorld for being intelligent, thoughtful, and rational people.

You really don't know how rare that is out there.  Or maybe you do, but in any event, I'm grateful anyway.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

lowkey13 said:


> But that's not the context of what is being said. Injecting your personal context isn't helpful.
> 
> Raising awareness of preventable deaths (through the annual flu vaccine, for example) is a laudable goal.
> 
> However, your added personal context shows exactly why this was said. *As you yourself just acknowledged, the vast majority of people do not view the flu seriously*. Therefore, when Covid19 is compared to the flu, it is not done so that everyone is like, "Hey, maybe we should get flu vaccines."
> 
> It is so people won't take it seriously. Like the flu.
> 
> So maybe instead of barking at doctors trying to save people from the misinformation they were fed, you can save a little of the personal context for the people the doctor was calling out who left so many unprepared.
> 
> Short version- I understand where you are coming from, but maybe not the time nor the place?



Not so much merely my contex, but more accurately, the context of another MD that I have internalized.

Repeating this:


> Therefore, when Covid19 is compared to the flu, it is not done so that everyone is like, "Hey, maybe we should get flu vaccines."
> 
> It is so people won't take it seriously. Like the flu.




Depends on who is making the comparison and how.  In this case, the good doctor is NOT making the comparison to minimize Covid-19, but to emphasize its comparative lethality.

In other cases, it is clearly done to show that the main measures to be taken to prevent/slow Covid-19’s spread are the same as for colds and flu- namely, washing hands, staying home when sick, etc.

As for time & place?  This is a gaming forum, not a conference hosted by _Lancet._


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> As for time & place?  This is a gaming forum, not a conference hosted by _Lancet._




It is more like - this thread is not really the place to argue over whether folks are miimizing or maximizing what when making comparisons to the flu.  We arent' going to fix the messaging of people who aren't here, so... let's not argue over it, hm?


----------



## Sacrosanct

A very good article why looking at only the fatality rate and comparing to the flu is very very bad. 









						Young and unafraid of the coronavirus? Good for you. Now stop killing people | Opinion
					

Yes, chances are that the coronavirus won't kill you. But just by refusing to stay put, you are endangering hundreds of lives, every bit as valuable as your own. And it can still mess up your life, or incapacitate you for good.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> Why is this an argument, again?



and


Umbran said:


> It is more like - this thread is not really the place to argue over whether folks are miimizing or maximizing what when making comparisons to the flu.  We arent' going to fix the messaging of people who aren't here, so... let's not argue over it, hm?



My last word on this tangent- honestly- is that had the doctor in question said “seasonal”, “average”, ”typical”, as the adjective, I wouldn’t have said a peep. 

But a “bad” flu can be just as destabilizing and dangerous in its own way to the world as a less common but more inherently deadly affliction.  It’s a risky turn of phrase in this context.


----------



## Ogre Mage

One of my gaming groups meets in Seattle, the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak.  Someone in the group came in close contact with an individual who had coronavirus and is now self-quarantined.  We cancelled the next session and it is unclear when the campaign will continue.  There has been some discussion about switching to online sessions.

I do not live in Seattle and my local gaming group has continued to play as usual.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I know what I said earlier, and I stand by it.   But in the interests of full disclosure:

This has been a mental whipsaw of an evening in the house tonight after my previous post.  It’s Mom’s birthday today, but we’re planning on celebrating it this Saturday.  But her cousin came over with a cake.

After cake, we- as a family & houseguest*- watched the POTUS make his address tonight.  The convo then switched to “what to do”, with most of the important stuff being said between my aforementioned Dad MD and Mom’s cousin- also an MD.

An hour after Cousin MD left, I’m folding laundry while watching a recording of MST3K, and our houseguest announced her son was suggesting she fly down to his place**, where they’d seal themselves off for a couple of weeks.  Houseguest was asking Mom for advice about whether she should go (despite hearing the MDs earlier discussion).  Mom asked how she felt.

Houseguest is convinced that Covid-19 is nothing more than the regular annual flu- for which she hasn’t gotten a vaccination- and everything on the mainstream media is a hoax designed to prevent the re-election of DJT.***

I...said nothing and kept folding clothes.  I have to say, sometimes, you _really_ want those close to you to be much farther away.



* a close family friend we’ve known for decades who is down on her luck at the moment.

** while he could, before the economy collapsed and the airlines stopped flying

***which brings my count of people with that opinion to 3


----------



## Zardnaar

Was


Dannyalcatraz said:


> I know what I said earlier, and I stand by it.   But in the interests of full disclosure:
> 
> This has been a mental whipsaw of an evening in the house tonight after my previous post.  It’s Mom’s birthday today, but we’re planning on celebrating it this Saturday.  But her cousin came over with a cake.
> 
> After cake, we- as a family & houseguest*- watched the POTUS make his address tonight.  The convo then switched to “what to do”, with most of the important stuff being said between my aforementioned Dad MD and Mom’s cousin- also an MD.
> 
> An hour after Cousin MD left, I’m folding laundry while watching a recording of MST3K, and our houseguest announced her son was suggesting she fly down to his place**, where they’d seal themselves off for a couple of weeks.  Houseguest was asking Mom for advice about whether she should go (despite hearing the MDs earlier discussion).  Mom asked how she felt.
> 
> Houseguest is convinced that Covid-19 is nothing more than the regular annual flu- for which she hasn’t gotten a vaccination- and everything on the mainstream media is a hoax designed to prevent the re-election of DJT.***
> 
> I...said nothing and kept folding clothes.  I have to say, sometimes, you _really_ want those close to you to be much farther away.
> 
> 
> 
> * a close family friend we’ve known for decades who is down on her luck at the moment.
> 
> ** while he could, before the economy collapsed and the airlines stopped flying
> 
> ***which brings my count of people with that opinion to 3




 Cant fix stupid.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

It’s mind boggling.

She trusted medical science to cure her cancer.  But she doesn’t need flu vaccination and Covid19-19 is a hoax.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

This may not directly relate specifically to the topic, but what I find mind boggling is the obsession with the testing kits and getting tested, like if you get tested once and it shows you not infected, that you will never get infected. Where does that idea even come from?  I agree with the doctors who say that most everyone will get this, just like most everyone gets the flu or a cold, and thinking you are safe after just a single test is stupid.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s mind boggling.
> 
> She trusted medical science to cure her cancer.  But she doesn’t need flu vaccination and Covid19-19 is a hoax.




 See previous comment.
 We've only got 5 cases in New Zealand,  one has been released and the rest are in self quarantine. 

 Travel ban from China for over a month and we have a decent health system.

 Hopefully won't be to bad here but who knows. No confirmed cases locally. If there are gonna shut group down. Student city they always get wrecked by "fresher flu" and other stuff.


----------



## NotAYakk

Travel only based testing, especially only of people presenting symptoms, is nowhere near catching 100%.

If 5 people got a positive result when you are only testing sick-presenting people from hotspots, you plausibly have low-level commumity spread already.

Locally a health authority started testing everyone who arrived from international trips, regardless of if there was a known outbreak.  1 of the doctors was found to be infected, with no known contact with any known infected person, or going anywhere near a hotspot.

It takes about 100 community cases before somone gets sick enough to go to the hospital and need O2 or more.  Under most nation's testing protocols, that is the first community-spread test they'll perform.

If you pass 10,000 cases, local health care systems start to buckle.  It grows 10x every 16 or so days.  So the first community spread case is 1 month from when you need to lockdown to keep it under health care system capacity.


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


----------



## Umbran

And, as of Monday morning, my entire office is Working From Home.


----------



## Todd Roybark

If you are one of the people hoarding toilet paper, don’t forget to _throw a roll to your Witcher_.


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


----------



## Umbran

Todd Roybark said:


> If you are one of the people hoarding toilet paper, don’t forget to _throw a roll to your Witcher_.




Yeah, so, that's an interesting psychological point.  We are a consumer economy.  We are trained to _buy things_ when faced with an issue (rather than to _do things_).  So, when coronavirus came into the news, folks bought masks and hand sanitizer.  While it would _seem_ like that's rational, it wasn't any more rational than hoarding toilet paper - it is an attempt to _buy a thing_ to give you some sense of control.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> This may not directly relate specifically to the topic, but what I find mind boggling is the obsession with the testing kits and getting tested, like if you get tested once and it shows you not infected, that you will never get infected. Where does that idea even come from?  I agree with the doctors who say that most everyone will get this, just like most everyone gets the flu or a cold, and thinking you are safe after just a single test is stupid.




lowkey13 pretty much hit it, but to reiterate:

1. widespread testing means you catch the cases way earlier, which enables you to engage in actions to prevent spreading it.  SARS and MERS are way worse than this, but because the symptoms show up a lot faster, and we could test for it a lot faster, allowed us to contain it much better. 

No one feels "safe" per se if getting testing.  But there is a level of reassurance there.  Because the virus can take up to two weeks before showing symptoms, I am not visiting my grandma anymore, which sucks for her a lot.  if I knew I was clear, I could go see her.  I just can't risk it right now. 

Testing also allows us to get much better numbers, and come up with much better incubation, contagoius times, severity %s,  mortality %s, etc.  In most cases, the symptoms are minor, which means a lot of people aren't being tested, which skews those numbers, which means we're working with bad data.   The more information we have and the more accurate, the better.




Todd Roybark said:


> If you are one of the people hoarding toilet paper, don’t forget to _throw a roll to your Witcher_.




Last week I was talking with a person who worked at Fred Meyer, and she asked a lady why she was buying up all the TP.  She sheepishly replied, "I see everyone else doing it, and I don't want to miss out in case they know something I don't."

Herd mentality.


----------



## Umbran

Sacrosanct said:


> 1. widespread testing means you catch the cases way earlier, which enables you to engage in actions to prevent spreading it.




This is a pretty crucial point, especially early in the epidemic.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Well, this is no good.  Another reason why this thing is so prolific.  



			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


----------



## atanakar

Sacrosanct said:


> Well, this is no good.  Another reason why this thing is so prolific.
> 
> 
> 
> Bloomberg - Are you a robot?




Not good news, but scientifically speaking, one study is not enough. Other scientist have to repeat the tests and check to see if there is no confirmation bias or if errors made. The other thing is the word «could» remain infectious. Meaning they are not sure yet.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

We haven't been told that it's mandatory, but we have been told that "we should strongly consider working from home" unless we absolutely need to physically be present. A good portion of my department had already been mostly working from home out of convenience anyway.



Umbran said:


> And, as of Monday morning, my entire office is Working From Home.


----------



## Umbran

Ralif Redhammer said:


> We haven't been told that it's mandatory, but we have been told that "we should strongly consider working from home" unless we absolutely need to physically be present. A good portion of my department had already been mostly working from home out of convenience anyway.




For a while, the policy was, "if you don't feel comfortable coming in, feel free to work from home".  Then, they sent the folks in the California office to work from home.  Now, the Boston office is being told to stay home.

It isn't _absolutely_ mandatory.  You'll still be able to get into the office if you want to.  So, if someone really can't work at home, they can technically come in.  But we are being asked not to unless absolutely necessary.


----------



## Todd Roybark

Umbran said:


> it is an attempt to _buy a thing_ to give you some sense of control.




True.  I live in California, and since the principle natural disasters , (wildfires and earthquakes), are not events, that are accurately forecasted, (unlike a hurricane or blizzard ), ‘Panic Buying’ is not a regular occurrence.

Buying a 3 month supply of toilet paper, yields _absolutely, zero sense of comfort or control_, when the wildfire is across the street, or the 6.7 Earthquake is _happening now_.


----------



## Umbran

Todd Roybark said:


> Buying a 3 month supply of toilet paper, yields _absolutely, zero sense of comfort or control_, when the wildfire is across the street, or the 6.7 Earthquake is _happening now_.




It is commonly seen in New England, where in the wintertime we have "French Toast Alerts".  Never mind that we almost never have a snowstorm so bad that you can't get to a grocery if you need to.  Never mind that the groceries are only running short of bread, eggs, and milk because you are buying them up... you go out and buy bread, eggs, and milk anyway.

Then, two days later, when you realize you have too much of these things... you make french toast befor eit goes bad.


----------



## OB1

Celebrim said:


> I was going to write a long essay, but I realize that this is one place I probably don't need to do so.
> 
> Thank you EnWorld for being intelligent, thoughtful, and rational people.
> 
> You really don't know how rare that is out there.  Or maybe you do, but in any event, I'm grateful anyway.




Just want to second this and say that on Monday, when I started reading this thread, I was of the mindset that Coronavirus was No Big Deal, something maybe a little worse than the flu that would blow over.  I'd just been following the news on the surface, not digging into the issue on my own.

Thanks to the thoughtful discussion and fantastic links posted here, I now understand what the issue is and am taking appropriate action, including working with my partners at my small start up to move our office in CA to tele-work over the next few weeks.

So thank you EnWorld, this community really is the best.


----------



## akr71

Umbran said:


> It is commonly seen in New England, where in the wintertime we have "French Toast Alerts".  Never mind that we almost never have a snowstorm so bad that you can't get to a grocery if you need to.  Never mind that the groceries are only running short of bread, eggs, and milk because you are buying them up... you go out and buy bread, eggs, and milk anyway.
> 
> Then, two days later, when you realize you have too much of these things... you make french toast before it goes bad.



I think I prefer my region's storm-buying habits. Preparing for Dorian last September, the longest lines I encountered were at the liquor store.


----------



## Todd Roybark

OB1 said:


> that Coronavirus was No Big Deal,




The best advice is know _your_ particular information, in relation, to what we know about the virus.

If you are over 60 and in poor health, maximally trying to _minimize_ one’s chance of exposure might be prudent.

For those under 60, in reasonably good health,  catching Covid 19, _likely_ will mean a hacking, ‘non productive’ cough and High, (Think 102 to 103 degree), fever.

Gotta Play the Percentages, you have _no_ choice!


----------



## Longspeak

GreyLord said:


> If you are in one of the hotspots, what are you doing now?  If you are under quarantine, how do you get your gaming fix on?



I'm in a hotspot. Well... the news says it's a hotspot, but mosly I see it as a fear spot. I, personally, am not affected. All my gaming is online. But my wife and son had to address this in their weekly Starfinder game this week. They decided they were not going to give in to the fear, but they would still be more cautious. So, game on, but no sharing food, no passing around a bag of chips, everyone uses their own dice, the GM moves all the pieces on the tactical board for you, etc. And anyone who's sick stays home. Usually the group doesn't care if someone has the sniffles, but for this time, they're zero tolerance.

Their setup is a living room with a lot of open space, low table in the center, so people can mostly stay three feet apart. 

This group is the group I returned to D&D with, and if they were still playing D&D, I'd attend the game under those conditions.


----------



## akr71

Like @OB1 late last week, I was of the opinion that this was something happening elsewhere and that my remote corner of Canada would resist relatively unscathed. I still believe that is the likely outcome - I'm under 50 and my family is all in good health - but I would feel terrible if I ended up a carrier, spreading the virus to people in compromised health conditions, such as my in-laws. They wanted to take their grandkids for a few days next week - movies, the market, etc. Now, I think that would be a huge mistake.

Sure, I might miss out on an evening alone, just me and the mrs, but a slight inconvenience to me is surely worth the reduced risk to everyone involved.

To the question in the OP: We played (in person) last Friday, & we likely will again this Friday. After that, it might be time to hit the pause button. 5 of the 8 of us are co-workers, 2 more are spouses, the last is a neighbor. If any of us have been in contact with an infected person, I fear it is already too late. Our isolation of a rural community may be our saving grace.


----------



## Fenris-77

I live a pretty isolated part of Canada (planes only) but I'm not convinced that will make a difference. I'm not that worried about my immediate family for age and health reasons, but the community I live in could get hit really hard if the virus makes it here. Overcrowding and a lack of ICU beds could end up being critical problems.


----------



## TheSword

Most areas badly affected seem to sensibly trying to delay the spread. By self isolating and reducing social interaction for a few weeks people are increasing the the time Health services have to prepare and respond. As well as slow the demand for intensive care.

Nobody wants to be in the situation Italian doctors and nurses find themselves. With war footing triage being used to determine who gets intensive care and who dies. There is little comfort to people who’s parents and grandparents die, that they would have gone in a few years anyway.

Delay the spread, be sensible.


----------



## Todd Roybark

akr71 said:


> but I would feel terrible if I ended up a carrier, spreading the virus to people in compromised health conditions, such as my in-laws.




You have no Agency, in that scenario.  A finding of liability, would just be a point of fact, _not_ a moral judgement.  You were just living your life, normally.  

 I know, there is scant comfort in that. There is however, no need, for one to be a camel,
and shoulder, an un-needed _extra_ hump of guilt for something, beyond one’s control.

 This is a force majeure scenario.  All _we can do_ going forward, (and now),is take _reasonable_ actions, and _keep_ taking reasonable actions, when the dice go against us.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

lowkey13 said:


> Just ... c'mon. I felt like pulling up to him and asking how his leaky anus was doing.



Yeah.  You’d think the more likely physical reaction would be a super-strong clench.


----------



## Umbran

Todd Roybark said:


> You have no Agency, in that scenario.  A finding of liability, would just be a point of fact, _not_ a moral judgement.  You were just living your life, normally.




You are living in a community.  You gain benefits from that.  So, in return, some responsibility for the community's health does fall upon you.

You do have Agency.  There are choices you can make.  And just continuing to "live your life normally" in an abnormal moment is not living up to your responsibilities.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yeah.  You’d think the more likely physical reaction would be a super-strong clench.



Shhhh! You're going to provoke another run on the stores, and every last pair of vice grips will get bought up.


----------



## akr71

Umbran said:


> You are living in a community.  You gain benefits from that.  So, in return, some responsibility for the community's health does fall upon you.
> 
> You do have Agency.  There are choices you can make.  And just continuing to "live your life normally" in an abnormal moment is not living up to your responsibilities.



This. This is where I was going. It may be irksome to change my habits, or annoying to change plans, but to do so and look back thinking "that wasn't much was it" is far better than the alternative.

However, my wife is a nurse - she now works a desk job, but should things get bad, she will feel obliged to pick up shifts at the hospital. Our health-care system is stretched paper-thin as it is - the reality is, that it would not take much to overload it like Italy. That is what I find scary.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

You know, I did do an assessment of my liquor cabinet at the start of this. Good to ride it out on everything except bourbon and Drambuie (which, yeah, that's all of two cocktails I make using Drambuie, so no big deal).



akr71 said:


> I think I prefer my region's storm-buying habits. Preparing for Dorian last September, the longest lines I encountered were at the liquor store.


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


----------



## R_J_K75

This is just my experience so don't take it as any medical or even logical advice.  When we were kids we'd go out and party whether we had a 103 degree fever or not, and usually felt better the next day.  Week before last I was sick for about a week and was still lingering as of last Wednesday.  That day my friend came by and we knocked back a bottle and a half of gin.  I woke up Thursday and felt better.  We always used to say that alcohol killed the sickness.  I wonder if there is any truth to that or not? I've heard that alcohol lowers your immune system and makes it harder to fight off illness, but seems there always one person in every group that drinks like a fish but never gets sick.  Regardless I stocked the fridge this morning.


----------



## R_J_K75

akr71 said:


> I think I prefer my region's storm-buying habits. Preparing for Dorian last September, the longest lines I encountered were at the liquor store.View attachment 119834




My friends lives in West Palm Beach Florida and she said that people have hurricane parties, before, during and after the storm.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

If you're drinking it straight, yeah, I imagine that's a one-way ticket to Hangover Central. But the Rusty Nail is a classic.

Gary Con is starting to look really iffy. The Wisconsin government just released a memo that "The Wisconsin Department of Health Services (DHS) recommends that all non-essential gatherings of 250 or more people be cancelled or postponed statewide..."

No official word as of yet, but I fear it's coming. It would figure that this would happen the year I finally get motivated enough to go. Still, compared to the risk posed to attendees, I'll not complain. Not much, anyway.



lowkey13 said:


> Do you know what goes great with Drambuie?
> 
> A hangover.


----------



## Todd Roybark

Umbran said:


> You are living in a community.  You gain benefits from that.  So, in return, some responsibility for the community's health does fall upon you.
> 
> You do have Agency.  There are choices you can make.  And just continuing to "live your life normally" in an abnormal moment is not living up to your responsibilities.




Umbran, you left out the end  of my post which states:


Todd Roybark said:


> All _we can do_ going forward, (and now),is take _reasonable_ actions, and _keep_ taking reasonable actions, when the dice go against us.




I live in Los Angeles.  Asymtomatic Transmision within a two week window is a possible scenario. 

Within that timeframe I have voted, engaged in political gatherings, utilized public transportation, gone to restaurants,  and visited friends and family members.

I was  Not morally wrong, for my quotidian actions at that time, Even if a spread of the infection resulted. (in the subset of the view of infectious disease).

There was no local, nor state, nor Federal government prohibition on such activities. Local Authorities advised caution, to minimize extended public gatherings, and to wash your hands and have good Coughing hygiene form.  I did that.

So where is my Agency, if presuming, I took _all reasonable and informed steps_ to limit transmission, but transmission still occurred ?

Someone responsible for asymptomatic transmission within the last 2 weeks is not in abrogation of the social contract, or being an irresponsible citizen.

Your statements seem better directed towards another target.

One can be as safe as possible, and still spread infection.  That is statistically true, but probabilistically unlikely.  Hence all we can do now is be reasonable, and continue to do so in the future.


----------



## NotAYakk

So, for a fun clock.  The end point is "you have 10,000 cases in your community in the wild", assuming no measures as extreme as Italy (local travel bans, social distancing).


First community transmission detected because someone went to the hospital feeling unwell: 32 days
First community-infected death: 16 days
10th community-infected death: 0 days, roughly 10,000 people in community infected
100th death: -16 days, roughly 100,000 people in community infected
You need 500 new free ICU, 1500 Oxygen beds: -20 days
You need 1000 new free ICU, 3000 Oxygen beds: -26 days (total 1500)
You need 2000 new free ICU, 6000 Oxygen beds: -32 days (total 3500) about 1 million infected
You need 4000 new free ICU, 12000 Oxygen beds: -38 days (total 7500)
You need 8000 new free ICU, 24000 Oxygen beds: -44 days (total 15000; first few patients are now stable)
It is everywhere.  -48 days
You need 16000 new free ICU, 48000 Oxygen beds: -50 days (total 30000)
ICU need reaches steady state, way over supply. -68 days

USA as a whole has  65,000 ICU beds, or 1 per 5000 people.  They tend to be in 80%+ utilization, so you have 1 "free" ICU bed for every 25,000 people.  So, in a region of 25 million people, you might about 1000 beds they can free up at this moment.  It is probable they can cobble a few more together by turning surgical equipment into ICU beds or similar.

When you introduce drastic measures, the number of new beds needed levels off *3 weeks later*.  Patients needing beds need them for up to 4 weeks.

This kind of curve hasn't been flattened without drastic measures.

Patients who need ICU/Oxygen basically die if they don't get it.  Some that need it die anyway.  You get a <1% death rate if you have enough ICU/Oxygen/etc.  You get a 4%+ death rate if you don't.

So suppose modest measures are taken at the 10,000 people infected mark.


First community transmission detected because someone went to the hospital feeling unwell: 32 days
First community-infected death: 16 days
10th community-infected death: 0 days, roughly 10,000 people in community infected
100th death: -16 days, roughly 20,000 people in community infected
You need 500 new free ICU, 1500 Oxygen beds: -20 days
You need 650 new free ICU, 2000 Oxygen beds: -26 days (total 1150)
You need 850 new free ICU, 2500 Oxygen beds: -32 days (total 2000)
40,000 people infected: -32 days
You need 1100 new free ICU, 3300 Oxygen beds: -38 days (total 3100)
You need 1400 new free ICU, 4300 Oxygen beds: -44 days (total 4000; first few patients are now stable)
80,000 people infected: -48 days
You need 1800 new free ICU, 5500 Oxygen beds: -50 days (total 5150)

Suppose drastic measures are taken at the 10,000 people mark.

So suppose modest measures are taken at the 10,000 people infected mark.


First community transmission detected because someone went to the hospital feeling unwell: 32 days
First community-infected death: 16 days
10th community-infected death: 0 days, roughly 10,000 people in community infected
100th death: -16 days, roughly 20,000 people in community infected
You need 500 new free ICU, 1500 Oxygen beds: -20 days
You need 450 new free ICU, 1350 Oxygen beds: -26 days (total 950)
You need 400 new free ICU, 1200 Oxygen beds: -32 days (total 1350)
12,000 people infected: -32 days
You need 350 new free ICU, 1000 Oxygen beds: -38 days (total 1700)
You need 300 new free ICU, 900 Oxygen beds: -44 days (total 1500; first few patients are now stable)
7,000 people infected: -48 days
You need 250 new free ICU, 750 Oxygen beds: -50 days (total 1200)

A downslope starts.  But it starts ~10-20 days after measures start, because the people in hospital are the people infected 2-3 weeks ago.

Model: 5% of sick need a ICU in 20 days, 15% need oxygen, and they need it for 4 weeks.  Base is 10x new cases every 16 days.  Modest intervention makes it 2x new cases every 16 days.  Serious intervention makes it x0.7 new cases every 16 days.


----------



## R_J_K75

Ralif Redhammer said:


> If you're drinking it straight, yeah, I imagine that's a one-way ticket to Hangover Central.




Actually drinking clear liquor straight with no mixer chased with water is the best way to avoid a hangover.  Its the sugar in mixers, and brown liquor that gives you a hangover. Obviously you drink enough nothings going to prevent it though.


----------



## Umbran

R_J_K75 said:


> When we were kids we'd go out and party whether we had a 103 degree fever or not, and usually felt better the next day.




This isnt' a general "kid is sick" disease, or even a standard flu.  Covid-19 is nastier than most things most of us may have been exposed to in our lifetimes.



> We always used to say that alcohol killed the sickness.  I wonder if there is any truth to that or not?




Good gods, no!


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


----------



## R_J_K75

lowkey13 said:


> ...one realizes you must not be familiar with Drambuie.




Nope I never heard of it, but Im not a big liqueur drinker, rarely ever.


----------



## Zardnaar

Emergency supplies. 






 Got a little bit of wine. Problem is I don't like wine.


----------



## Umbran

Todd Roybark said:


> Umbran, you left out the end  of my post...




The problem with that is you didn't establish what "reasonable" is, and that is TERRIBLY important.  If you say, "take reasonable precautions" you are leaving what that means up to the audience.  A month ago, even two weeks ago, that was okay.  By the numbers... we are at the point where such a statement is no longer responsible.  We need to all have an understanding of what is _effective_, not what seems reasonable.



> I live in Los Angeles.  Asymtomatic Transmision within a two week window is a possible scenario.
> 
> Within that timeframe I have voted, engaged in political gatherings, utilized public transportation, gone to restaurants,  and visited friends and family members.
> 
> I was  Not morally wrong, for my quotidian actions at that time




At the time.  The world looked different two weeks ago.  Ethics (not morals, ethics) of choices kind of have to be based on what was known at the time.  What made sense two weeks ago may seem like a Really Bad Idea (TM) two weeks from now.

Now, having just been in a talk on how covid-19 moves through social networks....

Going to _small_ gatherings (like 10 people or less) right now, in the US on average, has a really low chance that someone with coronavirus will be present.  That may change, but for now it is unlikely to be momentous.

But, we are at the point where a matter of _days_ establishing social distancing on the larger scale may make the difference in the shape of the infection curve from "our hospitals can handle it" to "hospitals get overwhelmed".  This is why I say that leaving it with "reasonable measures" is no longer a good approach.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Re: booze

Our liquor cart:





Our stockpile:





Not pictured: pantry or refrigerator contents...

Despite that impressive display, though, our nuclear family isn’t heavy into drinking. The three of us might combine for a drink in a typical week. It’s mostly consumed on special occasions and used for cooking. Those bottles are dusty AF.


----------



## R_J_K75

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Re: booze
> 
> Our liquor cart:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Our stockpile:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not pictured: pantry or refrigerator contents...
> 
> Despite that impressive display, though, our nuclear family isn’t heavy into drinking. The three of us might combine for a drink in a typical week. It’s mostly consumed on special occasions and used for cooking. Those bottles are dusty AF.




I'll be right over!!


----------



## THEMNGMNT

Party at Danny's!


----------



## Sacrosanct

If it comes to alcohol, I'm good.  I brew wine, mead, and beer.  I think I have about 200 bottles of wine and mead at this very moment


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## akr71

@Sacrosanct I haven't brewed for a bit, but I've got enough grain downstairs and enough hops and yeast for a few 5 gallon batches , if needed... and a freezer full of grapes. If I start this weekend, I'll be good by April.


----------



## Umbran

For my house, the conversation wasn't about alcohol.  It was about crafting supplies for my wife.   If we didn't have a month's supply of fiber for her to spin, and yarn for her to crochet with... there'd be an issue.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Nice! Wine and mead here, but my stock isn't quite that deep.

In about two hours, I'm going to DM my open table at the local gaming cafe, unless I hear otherwise from the cafe. Planning on bringing Clorox wipes, that's for sure. And some mead...for morale.



Sacrosanct said:


> If it comes to alcohol, I'm good.  I brew wine, mead, and beer.  I think I have about 200 bottles of wine and mead at this very moment


----------



## MoonSong

There's about a dozen casres in my state. All of them are imports. In the back of my mind there's this worry about it, but nothing extraordinary. Just the usual, not going out more than necessary and I avoid big groups of people anyway. Just need to make sure there's still enough reserves in the pantry and everything will be fine. I've already lived through this once -during h1n1- so my family and I should be fine.

 I also don't worry much about gaming as I currently dont have a group nor time to game. I hope that  changes soon. However one difficulty that came up this week is the sudden changes in the dollar exchange, so I can kiss those sweet sweet imported DND books goodbye. This also means not buying more RPG pdfs for a while.


----------



## Sacrosanct

akr71 said:


> @Sacrosanct I haven't brewed for a bit, but I've got enough grain downstairs and enough hops and yeast for a few 5 gallon batches , if needed... and a freezer full of grapes. If I start this weekend, I'll be good by April.




Depends on what you're making.  My chocolate mead I started in the summer of 2018?  It's just now ready for drinking.  6 gallons.  Woot!

Funny thing though, is the reason I have so much wine and mead is I hardly drink.  Most of it goes towards Christmas gifts for my family member who do lol.


----------



## Todd Roybark

Umbran said:


> The problem with that is you didn't establish what "reasonable" is, and that is TERRIBLY important.




You mean like the part I say this:


Todd Roybark said:


> _all reasonable and informed steps_ to limit transmission



or the paragraph before that, were,  I referenced being in compliance with federal, state, and local authorities. Presumably, which includes, the CDC, and State and Local Health Agencies.

Internet shorthand for _all CDC, and State, and Local Health Agency guidelines_ is _reasonable_.

Your point is great.  Especially when the point is directed against rumors and noise.

Any  Internet story that begins “My Sister’s, Cousin’s, _brother_ is a Doctor and they said ‘X’” is on fairly poor footing in terms of reliability.



Umbran said:


> At the time. The world looked different two weeks ago. Ethics (not morals, ethics) of choices kind of have to be based on what was known at the time. What made sense two weeks ago may seem like a Really Bad Idea (TM) two weeks from now.




Again, Agreed.  I think wrote those sentiments, rather explicitly, above, as well.

Great Message.  .  Keep Sharing it.  I support it.

I just think, I am not the correct target, for you to share it with _while_ standing on a soapbox.


----------



## Waterbizkit

Todd Roybark said:


> Any  Internet story that begins “My Sister’s, Cousin’s, _brother_ is a Doctor and they said ‘X’” is on fairly poor footing in terms of reliability.




It's been a long day and I know this isn't much of a contribution to a thread about a serious issue... but... 

Isn't that just your cousin? Your sister's cousin is your cousin. Your cousin's brother is your cousin. 

Don't ask me why this stuck out to me so much, it just did. I'll go ask my wife's, friend's neighbors doctor... maybe they'll know.


----------



## R_J_K75

I live in Buffalo, NY.  I woke up this morning about 5AM. Within the last 12 hrs basically every public event has been cancelled for the foreseeable future.  Pretty sure colleges have gone online too.  There's been no confirmed cases here, the closest is about an hour away outside of Rochester.  Seems theyre  doing the right thing by being proactive but Im pretty confident that it'll be here sooner than later.


----------



## slobster

So just to chime in on the thread, my group just decided to cancel our sessions going forward for a while. We aren't really internet players, so it will just lie fallow for a few weeks while the outbreak (hopefully) blows over. None of us have been sick, but many of us have kids or elderly parents that we interact with regularly, so it seems like the right call to make. I live on the Central California coast.


----------



## wakedown

Cool thread.  Guys, it's in our hands as members of the public to stem the spread.  Stay home if you can the next 2 weeks and help prevent the USA from following Italy in measures.

It's not about you, it's about your neighbors.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> Ethics (not morals, ethics) of choices kind of have to be based on what was known at the time. What made sense two weeks ago may seem like a Really Bad Idea (TM) two weeks from now.




So true.  And what happens in 2020 with respect to the global response to Covid-19 will likely reshape a lot of societies for a generation or more.  For good AND ill.

I expect there will be a lot more serious discussion about how to handle this kind of thing, just like every other major disaster has altered “best practices” for first responders, how sovereigns fund preparedness and the like.

I suspect there will also be a longish period of “twichiness” for people, institutions and governments will feel a need to react/overreact if there’s even a whiff of an emergent contagion.

I just hope this isn’t a step towardsAsimov’s _The Naked Sun _becoming reality.


----------



## Azzy

R_J_K75 said:


> My friends lives in West Palm Beach Florida and she said that people have hurricane parties, before, during and after the storm.



I can confirm, as a Floridian.


----------



## MoonSong

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I expect there will be a lot more serious discussion about how to handle this kind of thing, just like every other major disaster has altered “best practices” for first responders, how sovereigns fund preparedness and the like.



Ten years ago we had H1N1, I think my government was more prepared back then than now. And they were actually caught completely unprepared. At the time it seemed we all learned a valuable lesson, but people forgot and quickly.


----------



## Fenris-77

Azzy said:


> I can confirm, as a Floridian.



I concur, and while I am not a Floridian, I do play one on TV.


----------



## Bitbrain

Well, ____ (insert expletive of choice).

It’s in my community as of this morning.  Near as I can gather from local news, every school and public event that was scheduled for the coming week or two has been canceled.

I might be frequenting this website more than I usually do over the next month.  Total quarantine is impossible for my family, but we’ve already isolated ourselves as best we can.


----------



## R_J_K75

Fenris-77 said:


> I concur, and while I am not a Floridian, I do play one on TV.




Sometime around September 2008 there was a hurricane in Florida.  We were watching the news here in NY and the reporter was clearly in front of a green screen while crewmen had a fan on him and another "doused" him with a watering can.  It made Geraldo look like a war hero.


----------



## Celebrim

Azzy said:


> I can confirm, as a Floridian.




I can also confirm.

The really hard part is trying to convince someone that has had a party and got drunk for the last 12 hurricanes, that a category V is something different than anything he's ever experienced.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Azzy said:


> I can confirm, as a Floridian.



People had them in Louisiana, too.


----------



## Fenris-77

Celebrim said:


> I can also confirm.
> 
> The really hard part is trying to convince someone that has had a party and got drunk for the last 12 hurricanes, that a category V is something different than anything he's ever experienced.



Category V ... huh ... is that the one where you drink tequila out of a boot and then dunk your whole face in salted lime water?

Oh wait, you meant the Hurricane....


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Celebrim said:


> The really hard part is trying to convince someone that has had a party and got drunk for the last 12 hurricanes, that a category V is something different than anything he's ever experienced.



Most of my family is from and lived in NOLA...until 2005.  We’ve lived in D/FW since 1982.  Many times, we hosted family members who evacuated for one of the minor hurricanes.  A fun little vacation, and few days later, they’d head home.

They knew Katrina was different, and evacuated en mass.  We had @30 in our house, and 2 other family members (who had moved to D/FW after a hurricane a few years prior) had another couple dozen between them.

They didn’t realize HOW different until they turned on the TV just before noon and saw places they knew under 10+ feet of water.  The house was dead quiet.


----------



## FrogReaver

Celebrim said:


> What exactly do you think is a rational reaction to a disease with apparently an R0 of higher than 2.5 and a mortality rate of higher than 3.4%?
> 
> I'm not denying that there is a certain amount of hype, but those two numbers I think pretty much tell the whole story.   You either believe those numbers are real, or you don't - in which case your distrust extends to far more than just 'the media'.
> 
> So, as for myself, I don't think we'll meet for two reasons.
> 
> First, and most importantly, for the sake of people outside our group who would be at high risk in the event of a general epidemic. For the sake of the elderly, it just doesn't make any sense to put our enjoyment ahead of their lives.
> 
> And secondly, several members of my group have the single most important co-morbidity factor - high blood pressure.  So, even though mortality in our age group is quite low, with the high blood pressure present in it's in the 1% range.   And that's to not even get into the relatively high risk that they'd need to be on oxygen for 2 to 4 weeks.




I don't believe there is a way at this time to accurately measure those values.  Props to the people trying to get the best handle on this that they can.  That said - it's still best to take as few risks as possible.

Keep in mind that it can be weeks before symptoms are shown.  You may already have caught it and not even be aware.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

MoonSong said:


> Ten years ago we had H1N1, I think my government was more prepared back then than now. And they were actually caught completely unprepared. At the time it seemed we all learned a valuable lesson, but people forgot and quickly.




Back in 2009, US pandemic preparedness was slated to be boosted by @$800m.  That boost was stymied by bipartisan efforts,  Some of that was because some of that funding was tacked on to unrelated bills, but not all of it.

I’m thinking that some of those legislators are rethinking those votes.  I _know_ some of their constituents are.  Hopefully, we’ll get it right this time.


----------



## FrogReaver

MoonSong said:


> Ten years ago we had H1N1, I think my government was more prepared back then than now. And they were actually caught completely unprepared. At the time it seemed we all learned a valuable lesson, but people forgot and quickly.




I feel like H1N1 was more like part 1 of the story about the boy who cried wolf


----------



## FrogReaver

R_J_K75 said:


> I live in Buffalo, NY.  I woke up this morning about 5AM. Within the last 12 hrs basically every public event has been cancelled for the foreseeable future.  Pretty sure colleges have gone online too.  There's been no confirmed cases here, the closest is about an hour away outside of Rochester.  Seems theyre  doing the right thing by being proactive but Im pretty confident that it'll be here sooner than later.




Yep, only a matter of time.


----------



## R_J_K75

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Most of my family is from and lived in NOLA...until 2005.  We’ve lived in D/FW since 1982.  Many times, we hosted family members who evacuated for one of the minor hurricanes.  A fun little vacation, and few days later, they’d head home.
> 
> They knew Katrina was different, and evacuated en mass.  We had @30 in our house, and 2 other family members (who had moved to D/FW after a hurricane a few years prior) had another couple dozen between them.
> 
> They didn’t realize HOW different until they turned on the TV just before noon and saw places they knew under 10+ feet of water.  The house was dead quiet.




We got 8+ feet of snow in November of 2014, I think the majority of it came within 48 hrs, but it snowed for almost a week straight.  I live by myself and was snowed in for over a week.  Even if I wanted to go anywhere it was pretty futile.  There were driving bans and abandoned cars all over WNY, and people were trapped in their cars on the thruway for days.  My neighbor got to a store around the 3rd or 4th day and brought back a backpack full of liquor and we ended up partying at my house for the next 2 days.  During it slowly but surely when people found out we were there drinking quite a few brave souls ventured out and made their way over.  Ended up quite a bash. So I'll take snow over anything like a tornado, hurricane or wild fires any day.


----------



## R_J_K75

FrogReaver said:


> Yep, only a matter of time.




I was just thinking today that I haven't anything about Toronto yet.  But then again I haven't really looked.  With them being so close to us and being a larger more cosmopolitan city I'd thought it get there first before us.  It may have and I just haven't heard about it.


----------



## Fenris-77

There are a handful of cases in TO as of this afternoon. A total of maybe 40 odd in Ontario total. Very low so far. Fingers crossed.


----------



## R_J_K75

Fenris-77 said:


> There are a handful of cases in TO as of this afternoon. A total of maybe 40 odd in Ontario total. Very low so far. Fingers crossed.




They must be doing a good job of keeping it contained as I was just reading that TO had its 2nd confirmed case Jan 28th, how reputable that site was IDK though.


----------



## Fenris-77

The two week incubation period means that number could change overnight. Hopefully its your narrative that holds and this isn't just the calm before the storm.


----------



## R_J_K75

Fenris-77 said:


> The two week incubation period means that number could change overnight. Hopefully its your narrative that holds and this isn't just the calm before the storm.




Wasn't Wuhans first case Dec 1, 2019?  So whenever they started seeing a downswing is probably a decent indicator, but IDK how quickly they realized what was going on and what they did to try and stop it.  Id imagine population density probably affects it too.  Only time will tell.


----------



## MoonSong

FrogReaver said:


> I feel like H1N1 was more like part 1 of the story about the boy who cried wolf



On the contrary, it was a very dangerous time to be alive. The Government in my country overreacted, but it helped cut down the epidemic early enough. Nobody close to me caught it, but relatives of people in my circle did and had to be hospitalized with severe symptoms. It didn't get worse worldwide, but in my country it was no laughing matter.


----------



## FrogReaver

MoonSong said:


> On the contrary, it was a very dangerous time to be alive. The Government in my country overreacted, but it helped cut down the epidemic early enough. Nobody close to me caught it, but relatives of people in my circle did and had to be hospitalized with severe symptoms. It didn't get worse worldwide, but in my country it was no laughing matter.




I'm not saying it wasn't serious to those that had it.  Just that on a global scale the talk of it was much like the talk of Wuhan Cronoavirus and that talk just didn't materialize as a significant global threat for H1N1


----------



## The Green Hermit

Umbran said:


> It is commonly seen in New England, where in the wintertime we have "French Toast Alerts".  Never mind that we almost never have a snowstorm so bad that you can't get to a grocery if you need to.  Never mind that the groceries are only running short of bread, eggs, and milk because you are buying them up... you go out and buy bread, eggs, and milk anyway.
> 
> Then, two days later, when you realize you have too much of these things... you make french toast befor eit goes bad.




But . . . French toast is GOOD!



Umbran said:


> For my house, the conversation wasn't about alcohol.  It was about crafting supplies for my wife.   If we didn't have a month's supply of fiber for her to spin, and yarn for her to crochet with... there'd be an issue.




I completely understand. I've been wondering if I need to stockpile new books, just in case. However, my school will continue as is if schools are shut down, just remotely instead of having to go in, so I will have lots of grading to do.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m thinking that some of those legislators are rethinking those votes.  I _know_ some of their constituents are.  Hopefully, we’ll get it right this time.




So, there's a problem with humanity.  We _stink_ at vigilance without stimulus.  If a truly threatening global pandemic comes along once a century, major funding efforts to prevent or manage them will be extremely hard to sustain.  I mean, we had this back in 1918, and see how ready we are today?


----------



## MoonSong

FrogReaver said:


> I'm not saying it wasn't serious to those that had it.  Just that on a global scale the talk of it was much like the talk of Wuhan Cronoavirus and that talk just didn't materialize as a significant global threat for H1N1



It was bad, half a million deaths weren't nothing. It was easier to control in its early stages, and it was overestimated in reports. It also helped that the City was put under lockdown quite quickly. Our doctors reported the outbreak as soon as they detected it. This virus though, is more virulent and has been allowed to spread since at least October, it also is a new species of virus that doctors aren't familair with instead of a variant on a known virus.


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> So, there's a problem with humanity.  We _stink_ at vigilance without stimulus.  If a truly threatening global pandemic comes along once a century, major funding efforts to prevent or manage them will be extremely hard to sustain.  I mean, we had this back in 1918, and see how ready we are today?



A hundred years ago everybody was too busy fighting WWI or staying out of it.


----------



## FrogReaver

MoonSong said:


> It was bad, half a million deaths weren't nothing. It was easier to control in its early stages, and it was overestimated in reports. It also helped that the City was put under lockdown quite quickly. Our doctors reported the outbreak as soon as they detected it. This virus though, is more virulent and has been allowed to spread since at least October, it also is a new species of virus that doctors aren't familair with instead of a variant on a known virus.




H1N1 virus killed about 12,000 in the U.S. that year.  
In the US normal Flu killed more that year.


----------



## MoonSong

FrogReaver said:


> H1N1 virus killed about 12,000 in the U.S. that year.
> In the US normal Flu killed more that year.



That many people died on my country's central region alone. Overall it was 50,000 deaths. And we are about a fifth of the US population.

Ok, don't get me wrong. I'm worried about influenza too. This season has been particularly nasty, yet the Health ministry has done nothing about it -and sadly many people just refuse to get the annual shot-. I dread what could happen should this new virus get our of control. We don't need yet another bad disease running amok here.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> So, there's a problem with humanity.  We _stink_ at vigilance without stimulus.  If a truly threatening global pandemic comes along once a century, major funding efforts to prevent or manage them will be extremely hard to sustain.  I mean, we had this back in 1918, and see how ready we are today?



I agree, but in fairness, between 1918 and, say, 1970, people thought scientists were going to solve all the world’s problems.  New vaccines!  Cures for terrible afflictions!  Some of mankind’s nastiest killers reduced to vials in labs.  Could complete freedom from diseases be achievable?

Weeeelllll, no.  IOW, we got complacent.

Mother Nature + human nature condemned us to repeat the lessons.


----------



## Celebrim

MoonSong said:


> That many people died on my country's central region alone. Overall it was 50,000 deaths. And we are about a fifth of the US population.




Influenza's mortality rate depends heavily on how much the population is exposed to, and at least partially immune, to different strains of the virus. Related viruses can appear over a period of many years, and impart immunity to similar viruses that are of a very different character.

Overall mortality in the 1918 Spanish Flu - which is believed by some to also be an H1N1 variant - was about 2%. That virus had a nearly unique trait of killing the young and healthy at relatively high rates and higher rates than those just younger or older than they were - peaking at age 25 at about 1% mortality. But it was actually less lethal overall for the elderly than most seasonal flu. Some believe it was because the very old had been exposed to H1N1 before.

It also had the unusual trait of killing people in rural areas at higher rates than urban areas.

My family at the time was living in the southern part of Arkansas (a state in America).  In the rural community that they lived in, the death rate among those about age 25 hit 20% of the population.   Old people in wagons and those that had survived would go house to house in winter, and people would leave their corpses on the porch to be picked up and buried, because they were too sick to attend a funeral.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I agree, but in fairness, between 1918 and, say, 1970, people thought scientists were going to solve all the world’s problems.  New vaccines!  Cures for terrible afflictions!  Some of mankind’s nastiest killers reduced to vials in labs.  Could complete freedom from diseases be achievable?
> 
> Weeeelllll, no.  IOW, we got complacent.
> 
> Mother Nature + human nature condemned us to repeat the lessons.




I much prefer to simply blame it all on the greedy corporations.  No profits in curing all diseases


----------



## MoonSong

Celebrim said:


> Overall mortality in the 1918 Spanish Flu - which is believed by some to also be an H1N1 variant - was about 2%. That virus had a nearly unique trait of killing the young and healthy at relatively high rates and higher rates than those just younger or older than they were - peaking at age 25 at about 1% mortality. But it was actually less lethal overall for the elderly than most seasonal flu. Some believe it was because the very old had been exposed to H1N1 before.



This was also a feature of the epidemic 11 years ago, it was deadlier with young people and specially women as opposed to older people.


----------



## slobster

FrogReaver said:


> I much prefer to simply blame it all on the greedy corporations.  No profits in curing all diseases



As an immunologist who works in healthcare and is on the frontlines of this outbreak, I can assure you that medical science is nowhere near being able to cure all diseases, profits or not. I'm not gonna argue that corporate decisions aren't really shortsighted and inhumane in many cases, and that you can't find plenty of examples of corporate actions costing lives, but that's not the whole story either.

I'm not at all confident that if we'd been funding the development of a vaccine or cure nonstop since 1900 for even just all coronaviruses (the old "cure for the common cold") at the scale of the US national defense budget, that we would necessarily have a completely airtight foolproof treatment by now. Science just fundamentally doesn't work at the scale of "double the funding, double the progress", and these are some seriously devious diseases. And that doesn't even get into the fact that coronaviruses are like 25% of common colds, not to mention all the other tens of thousands of pathogenically distinct diseases out there.

But hey, if someone ever finds the panacea to treat all illness, the second person behind them will be trying to patent and get rich off of it, so I get where the cynicism comes from.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Re: booze
> 
> Our liquor cart:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Our stockpile:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not pictured: pantry or refrigerator contents...
> 
> Despite that impressive display, though, our nuclear family isn’t heavy into drinking. The three of us might combine for a drink in a typical week. It’s mostly consumed on special occasions and used for cooking. Those bottles are dusty AF.




 Over here it's what you gonna do for next







Dannyalcatraz said:


> Back in 2009, US pandemic preparedness was slated to be boosted by @$800m.  That boost was stymied by bipartisan efforts,  Some of that was because some of that funding was tacked on to unrelated bills, but not all of it.
> 
> I’m thinking that some of those legislators are rethinking those votes.  I _know_ some of their constituents are.  Hopefully, we’ll get it right this time.




 That guy who uses keys to predict electiobs. Well this triggers two of them. Stockmarket downturn plus crisis.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

MoonSong said:


> This was also a feature of the epidemic 11 years ago, it was deadlier with young people and specially women as opposed to older people.



Where does the "especially women" part come from?  Ive never heard about the spanish flu being especially lethal to women.  Ive heard plenty about it and somehow never heard that part.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

MoonSong said:


> A hundred years ago everybody was too busy fighting WWI or staying out of it.




And, unfortunately, one of the big spreaders of the flu were all the soldiers returning home from the war.


----------



## Bitbrain

FrogReaver said:


> I feel like H1N1 was more like part 1 of the story about the boy who cried wolf




I lost 20 pounds over four days from that disease some years back.  It was not a joking matter for me.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

I'm going with the philosophy of business as usual. As far as I can see, the economic damage due to panic will be worse than the biological damage from virus itself. Those worried should take precautions, but everything else seems counterproductive in the long term. Biological damage will hit us now, but the economic damage could have last effects. Therefore, it is my duty not to avoid any of my usual activities, despite the potential personal risk.


----------



## Zardnaar

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> I'm going with the philosophy of business as usual. As far as I can see, the economic damage due to panic will be worse than the biological damage from virus itself. Those worried should take precautions, but everything else seems counterproductive in the long term. Biological damage will hit us now, but the economic damage could have last effects. Therefore, it is my duty not to avoid any of my usual activities, despite the potential personal risk.




 Gina be a recession worldwide. Maybe depression. Gonna hit us hard tourism is 2nd biggest earner.


----------



## NotAYakk

Doug McCrae said:


> A very interesting (and terrifying for someone who lives in the UK) article. Thanks for posting. I think this excerpt is the most important part:
> ​
> Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
> Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
> Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.​



Washington State has 4 independent deaths (counting the one nursing home as one event) and 270 detected; they are missing 90%+ of their cases.

UK appears to be on top of it actually.  1.6% death rate to infected is a sign they may be near saturation testing.  The 6 deaths*80 multiplier is 480, and they have 324 positive tests; that is the right ballpark.  99% of tested are negative, which also looks like "saturation tests" and not just testing people who show up extremely sick and/or are travel-related to hot spots.

France has 33 deaths and 1800 detected cases.  They are missing 90% of their infected.
Spain has 35 deaths and 1700 detected cases.  They are missing 90% of their infected.

Germany has 2 deaths and 1100 detected cases.  Looks good so far.

California has 2 deaths and 160 cases.  Suspicious.

NY+NJ has 1 death and 180 cases.  Also Suspicious.

So expect things to get bad in France, Spain and Washington State next.  France and Spain if they shut down everything today will still have a bad time.  Washington State could be either side of the edge.


WayOfTheFourElements said:


> I'm going with the philosophy of business as usual. As far as I can see, the economic damage due to panic will be worse than the biological damage from virus itself. Those worried should take precautions, but everything else seems counterproductive in the long term. Biological damage will hit us now, but the economic damage could have last effects. Therefore, it is my duty not to avoid any of my usual activities, despite the potential personal risk.



By failing to social distance you can be killing people.

"Mild" cases include lung scarring, 6+ months of rehab, etc.

If it turns out that economic damage is more than biological, it is because people _did_ change their behaviour.  This disease is on track for 4-6% death rate among infected and 50% of population infected by christmas without measures.

With measures, 1% death rate, and less than 1% of the population infected.

Read what is going on in Italien hospitals.  Look at satallite pictures of Iran.  Read the description of "mild" case (does not need O2 mask?!)


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

NotAYakk said:


> Washington State has 4 independent deaths (counting the one nursing home as one event) and 270 detected; they are missing 90%+ of their cases.
> 
> UK appears to be on top of it actually.  1.6% death rate to infected is a sign they may be near saturation testing.  The 6 deaths*80 multiplier is 480, and they have 324 positive tests; that is the right ballpark.  99% of tested are negative, which also looks like "saturation tests" and not just testing people who show up extremely sick and/or are travel-related to hot spots.
> 
> France has 33 deaths and 1800 detected cases.  They are missing 90% of their infected.
> Spain has 35 deaths and 1700 detected cases.  They are missing 90% of their infected.
> 
> Germany has 2 deaths and 1100 detected cases.  Looks good so far.
> 
> California has 2 deaths and 160 cases.  Suspicious.
> 
> NY+NJ has 1 death and 180 cases.  Also Suspicious.
> 
> So expect things to get bad in France, Spain and Washington State next.  France and Spain if they shut down everything today will still have a bad time.  Washington State could be either side of the edge.
> 
> By failing to social distance you can be killing people.
> 
> "Mild" cases include lung scarring, 6+ months of rehab, etc.
> 
> If it turns out that economic damage is more than biological, it is because people _did_ change their behaviour.  This disease is on track for 4-6% death rate among infected and 50% of population infected by christmas without measures.
> 
> With measures, 1% death rate, and less than 1% of the population infected.
> 
> Read what is going on in Italien hospitals.  Look at satallite pictures of Iran.  Read the description of "mild" case (does not need O2 mask?!)




*I am aware of and agree with 100% of the facts stated above.*

Nevertheless, I am more concerned with the potential economic damage inflicted by those policies, such as social distancing, quarantine, travel bans, lack of patronage to small and developing businesses. Will what the long term economic effects be? How many deaths we result from food, water, medicine shortages due to disrupted supply lines?


----------



## NotAYakk

We can keep food, water and medicine supply lines running with social distancing.  Especially in any industrialized or industrializing nation.

You going to a restaurant, or whatever, isn't going to interfere with that.

The government can juice the economy with cash when we get through this.

And yes, lots of restaurants and tourist businesses and travel businesses are going to have problems, and we are in for a recession.  The length of the recession is going to vary with how effectively we shut down COVID-19.  If you don't social distance and obey rules, you'll contribute to making the shut down less effective.

To put it another way, the 1918 influenza pandemic hit during a world war.  It caused lots of damage.  There was social distancing, shutting down gatherings, etc. But food kept flowing and the war kept fighting; the parts of the economy that *needed *to run kept running.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

NotAYakk said:


> We can keep food, water and medicine supply lines running with social distancing.  Especially in any industrialized or industrializing nation.
> 
> You going to a restaurant, or whatever, isn't going to interfere with that.
> 
> The government can juice the economy with cash when we get through this.
> 
> And yes, lots of restaurants and tourist businesses and travel businesses are going to have problems, and we are in for a recession.  The length of the recession is going to vary with how effectively we shut down COVID-19.  If you don't social distance and obey rules, you'll contribute to making the shut down less effective.
> 
> To put it another way, the 1918 influenza pandemic hit during a world war.  It caused lots of damage.  There was social distancing, shutting down gatherings, etc. But food kept flowing and the war kept fighting; the parts of the economy that *needed *to run kept running.




Which assumes one has money to buy food after losing one's job at the hotel, restaurant, etc. Perhaps in countries like the US things will be fine. For those of us who don't live in such wealthy countries, we have to make tough decisions. I know dozens of people already let go from their jobs because of the virus and are now wondering how to feed their children, especially now that our government has devaluated the currency to pay for the government response.


----------



## jasper

I am in a holding pattern currently.  I am supporting a local con.  Yesterday was told around 5 the con was in the pattern. After shopping for sanitizer, biscuit cutters, and crowd watching; I visited my contact.  The city council is going put more information at 1000 Hrs local.
I was throwing a pulled pork sandwiches dinner for the dms after the con closed on Saturday. So my weekend dinner plans are  in a holding pattern too.
*Should we start a CON CANCELLED thread?*


----------



## Son of the Serpent

The first thing that always pops into my head whenever there is a major crisis like corona is:

Now lets have a look at the stock market and see whats currently uncharacteristically floundering but wont stay that way.

Ive made a lot of money investing in fear.  Its delicious.

So if you are stumped about things to do while you are locked up in your home, try spending your new found free time perusing stocks.  Its what i do.

Ill be investing in more than a few things in the coming months and year but to give an example to start you guys off if you are wondering where to start looking, several oil companies have gotten a bee in their bonnet lately.  Maybe you wanna check that out?  Corona will affect that.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

Son of the Serpent said:


> The first thing that always pops into my head whenever there is a major crisis like corona is:
> 
> Now lets have a look at the stock market and see whats currently uncharacteristically floundering but wont stay that way.
> 
> Ive made a lot of money investing in fear.  Its delicious.
> 
> So if you are stumped about things to do while you are locked up in your home, try spending your new found free time perusing stocks.  Its what i do.




Yup. I've been shuffling around my investments as well. My new pharmacy stocks are kicking ass.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> Yup. I've been shuffling around my investments as well. My new pharmacy stocks are kicking ass.



Good man!


----------



## FrogReaver

NotAYakk said:


> Washington State has 4 independent deaths (counting the one nursing home as one event) and 270 detected; they are missing 90%+ of their cases.
> 
> UK appears to be on top of it actually.  1.6% death rate to infected is a sign they may be near saturation testing.  The 6 deaths*80 multiplier is 480, and they have 324 positive tests; that is the right ballpark.  99% of tested are negative, which also looks like "saturation tests" and not just testing people who show up extremely sick and/or are travel-related to hot spots.
> 
> France has 33 deaths and 1800 detected cases.  They are missing 90% of their infected.
> Spain has 35 deaths and 1700 detected cases.  They are missing 90% of their infected.
> 
> Germany has 2 deaths and 1100 detected cases.  Looks good so far.
> 
> California has 2 deaths and 160 cases.  Suspicious.
> 
> NY+NJ has 1 death and 180 cases.  Also Suspicious.
> 
> So expect things to get bad in France, Spain and Washington State next.  France and Spain if they shut down everything today will still have a bad time.  Washington State could be either side of the edge.
> 
> By failing to social distance you can be killing people.
> 
> "Mild" cases include lung scarring, 6+ months of rehab, etc.
> 
> If it turns out that economic damage is more than biological, it is because people _did_ change their behaviour.  This disease is on track for 4-6% death rate among infected and 50% of population infected by christmas without measures.
> 
> With measures, 1% death rate, and less than 1% of the population infected.
> 
> Read what is going on in Italien hospitals.  Look at satallite pictures of Iran.  Read the description of "mild" case (does not need O2 mask?!)




4-6% death rate.  No mild cases LOL.  Pure Sensationalism


----------



## NotAYakk

FrogReaver said:


> 4-6% death rate.  No mild cases LOL.  Pure Sensationalism



The death rate in areas where the health care system is overwealmed by the number of cases is consistently 4% or higher.

Go ahead, find me one.

Death rates where it isn't overwealmed?  In the ballpark of 1%.

There are mild cases.  But "mild" includes "anyone who doesn't need Oxygen to survive".  It also includes someone completely asymptomatic.

Mild: Doesn't need O2 suppliment.  ~85% of cases.
Moderate: Doesn't need  respirator or more.  ~10% of cases.
Severe: Needs a respirator.  ~5% of cases.

Italy stats:








						Italy: COVID cases by region 2022 | Statista
					

As of November 2022, Sicily's COVID cases are one of the highest among the Italian southern regions. Lombardy remains the region with the highest figure overall




					www.statista.com
				



^ cases by region








						Italy: COVID deaths by region 2022 | Statista
					

As of November 2022, Sicily's COVID deaths are the highest among the Italian southern regions. Lombardy remains the region with the highest figure overall.




					www.statista.com
				



^ deaths by region

*DIVIDE*.

Some regions are approaching 10%.

Look in Wuhan.  It had a high rate there, and low in the rest of China.  A big difference?  Hospitals overwealmed.

Many (NOT most, many) people who get this survive with intensive medical intervention.  Without that intervention, they die; we don't put people on Respirators for *fun*.  Hospital capacity for this intervention isn't high - the US has something like 60k beds, most of them in use, and can probably cobble together a few more using gear used for surgery.

If you have 30k beds assigned to this, * 20 is 600k -- with more than 600k sick, you lose the ability to use those beds for new patients.  And these beds don't teleport and neither do patients; so any one area with too many sick runs out.

They are letting people drown in their own lungs in Italy because they ran out of equipment to save them, and they have to pick which person lives and which dies, and there are 20 more people who need that equipment in the ambulances outside.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

^
Person above this post is not a sheep


----------



## FrogReaver

NotAYakk said:


> The death rate in areas where the health care system is overwealmed by the number of cases is consistently 4% or higher.
> 
> Go ahead, find me one.
> 
> Death rates where it isn't overwealmed?  In the ballpark of 1%.
> 
> There are mild cases.  But "mild" includes "anyone who doesn't need Oxygen to survive".  It also includes someone completely asymptomatic.
> 
> Mild: Doesn't need O2 suppliment.  ~85% of cases.
> Moderate: Doesn't need  respirator or more.  ~10% of cases.
> Severe: Needs a respirator.  ~5% of cases.
> 
> Italy stats:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Italy: COVID cases by region 2022 | Statista
> 
> 
> As of November 2022, Sicily's COVID cases are one of the highest among the Italian southern regions. Lombardy remains the region with the highest figure overall
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ^ cases by region
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Italy: COVID deaths by region 2022 | Statista
> 
> 
> As of November 2022, Sicily's COVID deaths are the highest among the Italian southern regions. Lombardy remains the region with the highest figure overall.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ^ deaths by region
> 
> *DIVIDE*.
> 
> Some regions are approaching 10%.
> 
> Look in Wuhan.  It had a high rate there, and low in the rest of China.  A big difference?  Hospitals overwealmed.
> 
> Many (NOT most, many) people who get this survive with intensive medical intervention.  Without that intervention, they die; we don't put people on Respirators for *fun*.  Hospital capacity for this intervention isn't high - the US has something like 60k beds, most of them in use, and can probably cobble together a few more using gear used for surgery.
> 
> If you have 30k beds assigned to this, * 20 is 600k -- with more than 600k sick, you lose the ability to use those beds for new patients.  And these beds don't teleport and neither do patients; so any one area with too many sick runs out.
> 
> They are letting people drown in their own lungs in Italy because they ran out of equipment to save them, and they have to pick which person lives and which dies, and there are 20 more people who need that equipment in the ambulances outside.




Your numbers are wrong

People with it and mild symptoms are far under reported


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

R_J_K75 said:


> Wasn't Wuhans first case Dec 1, 2019?  So whenever they started seeing a downswing is probably a decent indicator, but IDK how quickly they realized what was going on and what they did to try and stop it.  Id imagine population density probably affects it too.  Only time will tell.



First reported case of COVID 19 appeared on November 17. This was many weeks before the Chinese authorities started reporting cases. This is from the South China Morning Post reporting on unpublished Chinese government data. The Chinese authorities kept things quiet for quite a while...


----------



## Umbran

Acolyte of Zothique said:


> First reported case of COVID 19 appeared on November 17. This was many weeks before the Chinese authorities started reporting cases. This is from the South China Morning Post reporting on unpublished Chinese government data. The Chinese authorities kept things quiet for quite a while...




Well, the very first case... was just one guy sick.  It is only after a bunch of cases come up that they can see a trend, and figure out what's going on.


----------



## Umbran

Son of the Serpent said:


> Person abive this post is not a sheep




*Mod Note:*

Please be aware, there is going to be _ZERO_ patience for shenanigans in this thread.  Just don't.


----------



## Umbran

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> Biological damage will hit us now, but the economic damage could have last effects.




Last I checked, dying is a "lasting effect".  It lasts a long, long time.


----------



## Sacrosanct

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> *I am aware of and agree with 100% of the facts stated above.*
> 
> Nevertheless, I am more concerned with the potential economic damage inflicted by those policies, such as social distancing, quarantine, travel bans, lack of patronage to small and developing businesses. Will what the long term economic effects be? How many deaths we result from food, water, medicine shortages due to disrupted supply lines?





I  understand what you're saying, but this is really, really a bad thing to do.  Have you heard of the term, "flattening the curve"?  There's a really good reason why all medical experts are advocating cancelling events, staying home whenever possible, closing down schools, etc.  It's because it significantly slows down the rate of the viral infection.  And that's critical because our hospitals cannot treat everyone unless we do those things.  They will be overwhelmed.  Like in Italy.  Where people are dying in the hallways because there aren't enough beds or oxygen machines to help them.

Please, please, do not place the economy or profit over the value of human lives.


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

Umbran said:


> Well, the very first case... was just one guy sick.  It is only after a bunch of cases come up that they can see a trend, and figure out what's going on.



It was an unknown disease - trends or not, the alarm should have been raised from the beginning. There are no excuses for this. The Chinese authorities covered it up until late January.


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

Umbran said:


> Last I checked, dying is a "lasting effect".  It lasts a long, long time.



The ultimate physical consequence of COVID 19 will indeed last longer than the economic effects...


----------



## Nagol

Umbran said:


> Last I checked, dying is a "lasting effect".  It lasts a long, long time.




To the individual and to a lesser degree the small network around him.  To human society at large, not so much.


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

Sacrosanct said:


> I  understand what you're saying, but this is really, really a bad thing to do.  Have you heard of the term, "flattening the curve"?  There's a really good reason why all medical experts are advocating cancelling events, staying home whenever possible, closing down schools, etc.  It's because it significantly slows down the rate of the viral infection.  And that's critical because our hospitals cannot treat everyone unless we do those things.  They will be overwhelmed.  Like in Italy.  Where people are dying in the hallways because there aren't enough beds or oxygen machines to help them.
> 
> Please, please, do not place the economy or profit over the value of human lives.
> 
> View attachment 119873



Flattening the curve is critical unless you want to see a mortality rate that makes the Spanish Flu deaths look like peanuts. If you do nothing then the healthcare system becomes overwhelmed (see Italy) and people who could be saved with medical intervention will die. Not to mention deaths caused by other conditions that can no longer be treated urgently - heart attacks; strokes; trauma etc. China was willing to take a colossal economic hit to come down on the coronavirus hard. And it worked.


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


----------



## Sacrosanct

lowkey13 said:


> As I think we will (unfortunately) see, this is a losing battle.
> 
> If we flatten the curve, and it works ... then guess what? There are those who will say, "Hey, no big deal. Why did we do all of that? It was just a bunch of hype."
> 
> If we go through the measures, but we are a little bit late, then those same people will chime in with, "We did all of that and it still didn't work. We would have been better off not doing anything."
> 
> You can't win.
> 
> That's why public health and preventative measure requires buy-in and trust from the public. An ounce of prevention might be worth a pound of cure, but the trouble with prevention is that when it works, we don't notice it working.




If people say, 'Hey, you overreacted and it turned out not so bad.", then that means we did it right.  It's unfortunate that many in the population can't or won't see that.

I used to be a helicopter mechanic.  If I did my preventative maintenance right, it didn't crash and kill people.  But no pilot saw that.  They just complained, "Why are you putting the bird back into phase now?  It still flies fine."  But if I didn't do preventive maint, you can bet it would have been a disaster at some point.

It's a great flaw of our society.  We are so adverse to spending $1 on preventative care, but would rather spend $10 fighting the problem after it happens.


----------



## Nagol

lowkey13 said:


> Not sure the whole, "One death is a tragedy, a million deaths are a statistic," is the right approach to take?




Everyone dies.  Humans society has generally come to accept that. 

The societal pain felt by the pandemic will exceed the sum of individual pain for losing loved ones since it will include that spread widely as well as other forms of pain that specifically target those who live.


----------



## Deset Gled

lowkey13 said:


> If we flatten the curve, and it works ... then guess what? There are those who will say, "Hey, no big deal. Why did we do all of that? It was just a bunch of hype."
> 
> If we go through the measures, but we are a little bit late, then those same people will chime in with, "We did all of that and it still didn't work. We would have been better off not doing anything."
> 
> You can't win.




I define winning as "minimizing the death count" not "being popular".  Public education and politics are real issues, obviously.  But they are secondary to keeping people alive.


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## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## Acolyte of Zothique

Sacrosanct said:


> If people say, 'Hey, you overreacted and it turned out not so bad.", then that means we did it right.  It's unfortunate that many in the population can't or won't see that.
> 
> I used to be a helicopter mechanic.  If I did my preventative maintenance right, it didn't crash and kill people.  But no pilot saw that.  They just complained, "Why are you putting the bird back into phase now?  It still flies fine."  But if I didn't do preventive maint, you can bet it would have been a disaster at some point.
> 
> It's a great flaw of our society.  We are so adverse to spending $1 on preventative care, but would rather spend $10 fighting the problem after it happens.



China has clearly demonstrated, without a shadow of a doubt, that when it comes to responding to the coronavirus there's no such thing as overkill. Prevention is ALWAYS better than cure.


----------



## jasper

jasper said:


> I am in a holding pattern currently.  I am supporting a local con.  Yesterday was told around 5 the con was in the pattern. After shopping for sanitizer, biscuit cutters, and crowd watching; I visited my contact.  The city council is going put more information at 1000 Hrs local.
> I was throwing a pulled pork sandwiches dinner for the dms after the con closed on Saturday. So my weekend dinner plans are  in a holding pattern too.
> *Should we start a CON CANCELLED thread?*



The city cancelled my con.


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## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## MoonSong

Son of the Serpent said:


> Where does the "especially women" part come from?  Ive never heard about the spanish flu being especially lethal to women.  Ive heard plenty about it and somehow never heard that part.



For H1N1 eleven years ago... most victims were females under thirty.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

Umbran said:


> Last I checked, dying is a "lasting effect".  It lasts a long, long time.




Unfortunately we write off dead by pollution every day. It's one of the reasons I don't own a car. I wish we cared as much about preventing pollution as we do about this virus.


----------



## seebs

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> I'm going with the philosophy of business as usual. As far as I can see, the economic damage due to panic will be worse than the biological damage from virus itself. Those worried should take precautions, but everything else seems counterproductive in the long term. Biological damage will hit us now, but the economic damage could have last effects. Therefore, it is my duty not to avoid any of my usual activities, despite the potential personal risk.




So... in order to avoid the economic consequences, you're going to maximize them?

Spreading diseases _also_ does economic damage. Mass graves large enough to be seen from space are lasting economic damage.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

seebs said:


> So... in order to avoid the economic consequences, you're going to maximize them?
> 
> Spreading diseases _also_ does economic damage. Mass graves large enough to be seen from space are lasting economic damage.




Which is why we should start turning bodies into fertilizer or find something else productive to do with them.


----------



## Umbran

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> Which is why we should start turning bodies into fertilizer or find something else productive to do with them.




*Mod Note:*

Yeah.  Let us keep the dehumanizing humor down, please and thank you.  I know black humor is all the rage but there's enough anxiety on the subject as it is.


----------



## Azzy

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> Which is why we should start turning bodies into fertilizer or find something else productive to do with them.



Oooh. Edgey.


----------



## Umbran

Acolyte of Zothique said:


> It was an unknown disease - trends or not, the alarm should have been raised from the beginning. There are no excuses for this. The Chinese authorities covered it up until late January.




With respect... that's the point. It was an unknown disease.  It isn't as if, when someone dies, they instantly identify all new pathogens their body, or something.  That's not how the science works.

To start with it wasn't even recognized as a _new_ disease.  In the first case... some person with a cold or flu got pneumonia and died.  That happens with normal colds of flu.  It isn't unusual.  You need several cases before anyone has even a chance to notice that they are similar or related, or form a trend.  Then you have to find _how_ they are related. Then you look at that trend, and it then takes time to isolate the source.  And none of this goes as quickly as on police or medical drama shows on TV.  

The idea that, off the first case, they'd suddenly announce to the world that there's a new deadly microbe is, in the phraseology of science, "not even wrong".


----------



## Umbran

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> Unfortunately we write off dead by pollution every day.




"We write off other people dying, so we should write off these people dying," is not a logically sound position.  That we do one thing wrong does not mean we should do all things wrong.


----------



## Nagol

lowkey13 said:


> In the long run we are all dead.
> 
> Just because money is easily quantifiable doesn't allow someone to say that individual pain can be disregarded.
> 
> Perhaps when the individual pain is yours, you might be less sanguine with your observations. I hope that empathetic lessons do not need to be taught in such a manner.




I didn't say individual pain would be disregarded.  In fact I said the opposite.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> And yes, lots of restaurants and tourist businesses and travel businesses are going to have problems, and we are in for a recession.




You can help with that!

Go to your favorite restaurant.  Buy a gift certificate.  They have that money to tide them over now.  You can go and have a nice celebratory meal when it is all over, and their business is picking back up again.

You are then, in effect, buying culinary bonds


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## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## Nagol

lowkey13 said:


> Well, when someone says that "One death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic," is not the right approach to take, and you argue against it, perhaps you can see where you might be misconstrued.
> 
> Regardless, you be you. Don't say what you didn't say- please feel free to make your point.



I didn't agree with your characterization and I'll type anything I darn well please, thank you very much.  Feel free to censor yourself.

I did make my point, I think.  Human society will continue though and past this calamity.  This calamity will cause many small networks pain from individual loss.  Society has well-worn methods of dealing with those losses since they are inevitable even if not often seen in such volume.  In addition to those losses, there will be other more distributed pain caused by other aspects of the calamity.


----------



## seebs

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> Which is why we should start turning bodies into fertilizer or find something else productive to do with them.




This is missing the point: People dying from this is still economic harm, and much more severe economic harm than we suffer from quarantines. Even if we assume all of your ideological stances to be reasonable, what you are advocating is _worse_ at obtaining your stated goals than the best practices the epidemiologists are recommending.

You can't have _no_ financial disruption or harm. You can _minimize_ it, and you do that by reducing the spread of the disease.

Look at the death tolls in Philadelphia and St. Louis from the 1918 flu. Note how one of them had _twice as many deaths as the other_ per capita. Why? Because they stuck with "business as usual". But dead people don't work jobs, and don't pay taxes, and it turns out that those costs are a lot higher than the costs of a very temporary interruption of public activities.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

Umbran said:


> "We write off other people dying, so we should write off these people dying," is not a logically sound position.  That we do one thing wrong does not mean we should do all things wrong.




Not exactly.

A argument can only be interpreted with reference to a goal. Often times, that goal is truth. Likewise, an action must also be interpreted to a goal. Rule systems are the same; when evaluating a D&D subsystem, we must evaluate it in terms of what its designed to do.

The process of setting and ranking those goals is called prioritization.

For example, let's set "maximize human life" as a goal. OK Fine. Then let's prioritize it.

The coronavirus is a threat, but so it pollution. However, we are currently taking serious action against the coronavirus, but only minimal action against pollution.

My question then becomes: what priorities are we placing above human life with reference to pollution, but not with regards to the coronavirus?

Right now, I am having a difficult time answering that question, and therefore, am having a difficult time interpreting the actions the governments of our world are taking to prevent it. Instead, I am left confused.

So I'll try looking at things from a different perspective: what are our governments prioritizing?

When I look at that question, two clear answers spring to mind: "maintain the status quo of the pre-coronavirus world" and "look like we're doing something." 

In my opinion, neither of those are noble goals, which leaves me firmly at odds with the government reaction. 

If I saw that our governments were actually prioritizing human life, I could understand their actions better and perhaps even support them. However, I do not see them prioritizing human life.

Government clarification on this matter would be helpful and put my mind at ease as to their motives. But unfortunately, I am a little man in a 3rd world country typing on a computer from my living room. No government is answerable to me (and they probably shouldn't be).


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## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## seebs

"We can't do everything, therefore, we shouldn't do this thing" is a bad argument.

Epidemics and pandemics have well-understood and very carefully studied impacts and mitigation strategies. We know how to drastically reduce the lasting harms done by them, and we know how to increase those harms. You're advocating the strategy that maximizes the harms (except for actual intentional harm-creation strategies, like explicitly trying to spread a plague), on the grounds that you want the harm minimized.

If you are trying to make a point about not taking pollution seriously enough, you might consider that the state we're in now is the result of decades of massive shifts towards reducing pollution compared to what it used to be like, and there's still a good argument to be made that we can and should do more.

But right now, there are things we can do easily and cheaply that massively reduce the cost of an immediate problem, and you're arguing specifically for _not_ doing even those things.

"Business as usual" is an awful idea. Simple steps like "encourage people to work remotely if they can", "wash hands often", and "avoid touching your face" have very close to zero economic cost, and yet, offer huge benefits in this circumstance. (Heck, remote work even helps fight pollution. Yay.)

(Disclaimer: I'm biased, I last commuted regularly in 1997.)


----------



## slobster

lowkey13 said:


> Support your local businesses.
> 
> Always good advice. But it will be really necessary in the coming months.



Yeah I support this, as well. We're ordering out from one of our favorite restaurants for lunch at the office today, and part of the conversation was explicitly "hope this helps them make it through the next few weeks". Of course, we are ordering out, not dining in, as we're also trying to minimize our contact with others in social settings.

There have been a lot of great comments in this thread, kudos seriously to those spreading good information about the importance of flattening the curve. You guys are awesome.

For most of us who are young(ish) and healthy, the coronavirus poses a moderate but probably perhaps arguably acceptable level of danger (I don't know about you, but if I walked into a room with 99 other people and was told that one to three of us was going to be shot in the head, I'd consider that an entirely uncomfortable level of danger actually, but everyone evaluates risk in their own way). 

"I'll probably be just fine" is not the be-all and end-all of every situation. I prefer to live by "Do unto others" personally, and I urge everyone to listen to the public health experts in your country. Know that any economic sacrifice you make now will be contributing to saving the lives of potentially tens of thousands of people, loved ones and friends, all throughout your country and the world!


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## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## WayOfTheFourElements

seebs said:


> This is missing the point: People dying from this is still economic harm, and much more severe economic harm than we suffer from quarantines. Even if we assume all of your ideological stances to be reasonable, what you are advocating is _worse_ at obtaining your stated goals than the best practices the epidemiologists are recommending.
> 
> You can't have _no_ financial disruption or harm. You can _minimize_ it, and you do that by reducing the spread of the disease.
> 
> Look at the death tolls in Philadelphia and St. Louis from the 1918 flu. Note how one of them had _twice as many deaths as the other_ per capita. Why? Because they stuck with "business as usual". But dead people don't work jobs, and don't pay taxes, and it turns out that those costs are a lot higher than the costs of a very temporary interruption of public activities.




Well, having different opinions is quite normal. Those epidemiologists and I probably have different values.

Personally, I advocate for the following:
-> minimal government intervention
-> epidemiologists freely give their opinions and recommendations
-> people choose what is best for themselves

What this means is that 1) borders should not be close and quarantines should not be mandatory; 2) schools should not closed , especially when kids are not at risk. (Although, moving schooling online might be a net positive, and very different than stopping education.) 3) Individuals should be decisions about what is best for themselves and their communities. 4) Businesses should compete to solve new market problems created by the virus.

My goal is to give small businesses a fighting chance and avoid closure. The fewer people who end up unemployed the better.

Anyone at risk should stay at home and quarantine him/herself. That is a personal decision. I've sponsored ro send my wife, who suffers some hormonal issues, her parents, our daughter away from the city, for example. They're now temporarily staying in her grandmothers' a small, isolated village. That was our decision based on our values and personal priorities.

As a plus, my wife is taking care of the vineyard, instead of leaving it to become even more overgrown, which means we'll have more and better wine this year.


----------



## seebs

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> Well, having different opinions is quite normal. Those epidemiologists and I probably have different values.




Yes, but you don't get to have different _facts_. And given your stated values, your proposed course of action is, in fact, directly contrary to your stated values.

"Business as usual" is not a sane or rational response to an epidemic. It just isn't. This isn't a question of what your values are, except that it's a good response if your values are that you want to maximize harm.

If you want to reduce financial harm to small businesses, then _business as usual is an awful choice_.

This isn't a question of relative values, this is a question of observable, predictable, patterns of cause and effect.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

seebs said:


> Yes, but you don't get to have different _facts_. And given your stated values, your proposed course of action is, in fact, directly contrary to your stated values.
> 
> "Business as usual" is not a sane or rational response to an epidemic. It just isn't. This isn't a question of what your values are, except that it's a good response if your values are that you want to maximize harm.
> 
> If you want to reduce financial harm to small businesses, then _business as usual is an awful choice_.
> 
> This isn't a question of relative values, this is a question of observable, predictable, patterns of cause and effect.




For me, it's business as usual. I'm going to work, etc. I haven't changed any of my habits because I, as a fit 27 year old don't need to. Because I'll be fine, I find it my duty to continue to live me life in a way that causes as little disturbance as possible, which means continuing to work and renewing my gym membership instead of hiding at home or being quarantined.

My daughter is also 3, which means she isn't in school anyway.

If someone is actually at risk - like my wife's parents - I recommend that person stay home, which is a far cry from what's happening in Italy or imposing travel bans.


----------



## Sacrosanct

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> For me, it's business as usual. I'm going to work, etc. I haven't changed any of my habits because I, as a fit 27 year old don't need to. Because I'll be fine, I find it my duty to continue to live me life in a way that causes as little disturbance as possible, which means continuing to work and renewing my gym membership instead of hiding at home or being quarantined.
> 
> My daughter is also 3, which means she isn't in school anyway.
> 
> If someone is actually at risk - like my wife's parents - I recommend that person stay home, which is a far cry from what's happening in Italy or imposing travel bans.




You're continuing to ignore 2 important facts:

1. Being 27 doesn't mean you'll be fine.  You don't know.  Outside of a fatality rate, 20% of people with the virus require breathing assistance.

2. Even if you're fine, you're still a carrier for several weeks.  So you just got more at risk people infected.  Your actions and philosophy on this is highly irresponsible.  



> Personally, I advocate for the following:
> -> minimal government intervention
> -> epidemiologists freely give their opinions and recommendations
> -> people choose what is best for themselves




I'd love to hear why you came to the conclusion that the best way to handle a pandemic is to let people choose for themselves how to handle it.  When has that ever worked?  In fact, by your statement above about how you're handling it yourself, you're making it worse.


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


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## WayOfTheFourElements

Sacrosanct said:


> You're continuing to ignore 2 important facts:
> 
> 1. Being 27 doesn't mean you'll be fine.  You don't know.  Outside of a fatality rate, 20% of people with the virus require breathing assistance.
> 
> 2. Even if you're fine, you're still a carrier for several weeks.  So you just got more at risk people infected.  Your actions and philosophy on this is highly irresponsible.
> 
> I'd love to hear why you came to the conclusion that the best way to handle a pandemic is to let people choose for themselves how to handle it.  When has that ever worked?  In fact, by your statement above about how you're handling it yourself, you're making it worse.




1) True. I may not be fine. If I'm not, that's on me. I take responsibility for that. My silly life insurance policy might pay off for my wife.

2) Yes. I might end up being a carrier. I agree there, but I'm not sure its irresponsible. Shouldn't someone who doesn't want to risk exposure make the personal choice to quarantine him/herself?

3) I'm not sure it's anyone job to "handle a pandemic." Whether it should be is an interesting discussion I wish we were having. I'd like to see the arguments for and against. So far, I'm undecided on that front.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

lowkey13 said:


> ......um .....
> 
> ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
> 
> There was an article recently about a guy who came into Palm Beach International Air Port. He had Covid-19. Apparently, he had already taken the screening test because he had concerns and exposure, but took the flight anyway because he was afraid that the results would be positive.
> 
> ...and they were. I mean, he'll be fine. I'm sure. The rest of the people on the plane? Eh....
> 
> ...and this is why we have public health issues.




1) Why didn't the airline screen him if they were worried?

2) Why were people outside their homes if they didn't want to risk exposure?


----------



## Sacrosanct

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> 1) True. I may not be fine. If I'm not, that's on me. I take responsibility for that. My silly life insurance policy might pay off for my wife.
> 
> 2) Yes. I might end up being a carrier. I agree there, but I'm not sure its irresponsible. Shouldn't someone who doesn't want to risk exposure make the personal choice to quarantine him/herself?
> 
> 3) I'm not sure it's anyone job to "handle a pandemic." Whether it should be is an interesting discussion I wish we were having. I'd like to see the arguments for and against. So far, I'm undecided on that front.




No man, it's not _just _on you.  That's what people keep telling you.  That's not how viruses work.  You're putting everyone else at risk by acting irresponsibly.  

As far as handling a pandemic, it's literally the governments job to do that.  Fall under protecting it's citizens.


----------



## slobster

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> What this means is that 1) borders should not be close and quarantines should not be mandatory; 2) schools should not closed , especially when kids are not at risk. (Although, moving schooling online might be a net positive, and very different than stopping education.) 3) Individuals should be decisions about what is best for themselves and their communities. 4) Businesses should compete to solve new market problems created by the virus.



I mean no disrespect, but comments like this show that you are not very educated on the topic of epidemiology or public health. Please, listen to the advice given by the public health experts in your area when making your decisions, and keep in mind your behavior can be the difference between others being safe and healthy verses preventable tragedies and even deaths happening in your community and beyond.

I'm not saying your current actions are necessarily irresponsible, because I don't know where you live and how bad things are there. In most parts of the world, going to work and observing basic sanitary precautions are more than enough. In my area, we're having to take stricter precautions.

But if the whole world had the mindset that you are displaying here, of "as long as me and mine are safe and I can afford to do what I want, the rest of the planet can take care of itself", then the pandemic would be far, far worse than it would be if we took sensible, proven measures to mitigate it.

If you aren't an expert in the science, and those who are tell you what should be done, why would you gainsay them when lives are literally on the line?


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

slobster said:


> I mean no disrespect, but comments like this show that you are not very educated on the topic of epidemiology or public health. Please, listen to the advice given by the public health experts in your area when making your decisions, and keep in mind your behavior can be the difference between others being safe and healthy verses preventable tragedies and even deaths happening in your community and beyond.
> 
> I'm not saying your current actions are necessarily irresponsible, because I don't know where you live and how bad things are there. In most parts of the world, going to work and observing basic sanitary precautions are more than enough. In my area, we're having to take stricter precautions.
> 
> But if the whole world had the mindset that you are displaying here, of "as long as me and mine are safe and I can afford to do what I want, the rest of the planet can take care of itself", then the pandemic would be far, far worse than it would be if we took sensible, proven measures to mitigate it.
> 
> If you aren't an expert in the science, and those who are tell you what should be done, why would you gainsay them when lives are literally on the line?




Of course I'm not well educated on it. You have that correct, but you're post is also full of assumptions, including:

1) Public health officials have political authority
2) Their authority is legitimate
3) Their legitimate authority overrides personal authority 
4) Death is a tragedy
5) Stricter precautions are worth any sacrifices to personal freedom they might inflict
6) The world is a community
7) Communities can have mindsets

Now  of coming with a set assumptions isn't always bad. Everyone brings assumptions to an argument, and our own assumptions are easier for others to spot than they are for others to spot.

But some of the reason there we might be disagreeing is a fundamental difference in our assumptions.

Now, while I might agree that I also hold 4 to be true, I have yet to see are good argument to support it. Our assumptions cannot always be supported. Often times they have no foundations. In fact, I'm almost sure all foundations we base our human cultures on have cracks in them, which is something I'm currently trying to come to terms with. 

I admit my philosophy is shaky, and I am philosophically confused at the moment. I used to ask a lot of questions, but would receive few answers. Instead, I would be pushed away. As a result, I am probably less likely to take others' well being into consideration. 

Which means, as I said before, *I should not be in charge of public policy*. I'm just not sure anyone else should be either.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

Sacrosanct said:


> No man, it's not _just _on you.  That's what people keep telling you.  That's not how viruses work.  You're putting everyone else at risk by acting irresponsibly.
> 
> As far as handling a pandemic, it's literally the *governments job to do that*. Fall under protecting it's citizens.




The *bolded* section confuses me. Who defines what is the government's job to do and what isn't. Who chooses those people? How do we verify that is the correct answer? Does the might of the government make them right? Who decides what is right? 

Honestly, I can't answer those questions, and have never met anyone else who can either. Which is very disappointing to me, but it is my subjective opinion that we must analyze our assumptions, especially in the face of crises, in order not to institute a policy with unforeseen consequences.


----------



## slobster

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> Of course I'm not well educated on it. You have that correct, but you're post is also full of assumptions, including:
> 
> 4) Death is a tragedy
> 
> Now, while I might agree that I also hold 4 to be true, I have yet to see are good argument to support it. Our assumptions cannot always be supported.
> 
> I admit my philosophy is shaky, and I am philosophically confused at the moment.



I was arguing with you in the assumption of good faith, but if you aren't convinced of the value of human life, we won't be able to have any kind of constructive argument. I wish you the best in your search for philosophical coherence, but also know that I find it monstrous that anyone could honestly advance the idea that human life has no value as a possible foundation for their response to a humanitarian and health crisis.

I'll just finish with an appeal to your own self-interest. If you don't see the value in other people's lives, you at least seem to see value in your family's. If things get bad enough in your area that the government and health experts recommend quarantines, FOLLOW THEM. To do otherwise is to put yourself at risk, and if you were to die I'm sure your family would see the tragedy in that passing. For their sake, put value on your own life and follow health advice, even if you don't attach value to the lives of others.


----------



## Bitbrain

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> 2) Yes. I might end up being a carrier. I agree there, but I'm not sure its irresponsible. Shouldn't someone who doesn't want to risk exposure make the personal choice to quarantine him/herself?
> 
> 3) I'm not sure it's anyone job to "handle a pandemic." Whether it should be is an interesting discussion I wish we were having. I'd like to see the arguments for and against. So far, I'm undecided on that front.




Arguments for closing businesses, and instituting quarantines?

I recommend you look up the Siege of Kaffa.  Spoiler alert: It ain’t pretty.


----------



## seebs

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> For me, it's business as usual. I'm going to work, etc. I haven't changed any of my habits because I, as a fit 27 year old don't need to.




Then, statistically speaking, you will be the cause of at least one person dying, on average. Maybe it'll be none. Maybe it'll be 20+. But you are taking actions that could cause someone to die, when you could, at virtually zero cost to yourself, _not_ cause anyone to die.

And yes, it's irresponsible to go around carrying disease, because it _makes people die_. No, it isn't on the people who don't want to get sick to be quarantined, because we can't function if _everyone_ tries to be quarantined. So we go with the obvious, well-tested, proven tactic: People who are likely to be contagious are quarantined until they're no longer contagious, and then they're safe to go around because they won't get anyone sick.

And you keep saying that you're worried about economic impacts or whatever, but then dismissing the epidemic's costs as temporary. But the economic impacts you're worried about are just as temporary, and the epidemic's costs and harms _include_ significantly larger economic impacts than the ones you're supposedly trying to avoid.

If you're 27, you probably ought to be able to think about how your actions have consequences, and those consequences can affect other people, and even you. Sometimes _indirectly_. For instance, maybe you think you don't need to worry, and it's other people's job to keep themselves safe, and you want to Support Small Business. So you go to a small business, and you carry disease to them, and you make them be too sick to work for two weeks, and kill one of their family members. And that's your idea of _supporting_ them?

Come on. My cat is not smart, and sometimes has trouble solving the mystery of what miscreant threw up her food, but I think she might be able to see the problem here.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

slobster said:


> I was arguing with you in the assumption of good faith, but if you aren't convinced of the value of human life, we won't be able to have any kind of constructive argument. I wish you the best in your search for philosophical coherence, but also know that I find it monstrous that anyone could honestly advance the idea that human life has no value as a possible foundation for their response to a humanitarian and health crisis.
> 
> I'll just finish with an appeal to your own self-interest. If you don't see the value in other people's lives, you at least seem to see value in your family's. If things get bad enough in your area that the government and health experts recommend quarantines, FOLLOW THEM. To do otherwise is to put yourself at risk, and if you were to die I'm sure your family would see the tragedy in that passing. For their sake, put value on your own life and follow health advice, even if you don't attach value to the lives of others.




I think you're misreading me. I do find value in human life. Yet I do not know where that value comes from. It is an assumption, and one in search of a foundation.

I also hold personal and social freedom a value. That one, too, comes without a foundation.

Because both lack foundations, how does one choose which to place above the other.

My initial response would be that freedom requires life, and therefore we must place freedom above life when those two values are pitting against one another.

But in this case, we are not pitting the absolute end of life against the absolute end of freedom. Perhaps we are placing .05% of life against 5% of freedom. I don't know. Therefore, I have no right to enforce my beliefs upon others.

However, I don't believe anyone else has an answer either, and if they do I haven't seen an explanation or inquiry.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

OK. I think I'm going to bow out here. I think we're arguing at different levels of analysis.


----------



## slobster

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> OK. I think I'm going to bow out here. I think we're arguing at different levels of analysis.



The thing about a personal philosophical crisis is, it's abstract. You have your whole life to work through it, debate it, question your first principles and what others are telling you, and work out what makes sense to you.

An outbreak is concrete. Real people are put at risk of sickness or death by your actions, now. You can be a hero and protect people at relatively little cost to yourself, or you can be self-interested and put others at risk to satisfy your own desire to be quixotic. But the costs will linger, while your philosophy will almost certainly change as you grow.

Just be responsible now. You can use the time at home to debate philosophy on the internet with others who have similar interests!


----------



## Sacrosanct

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> The *bolded* section confuses me. Who defines what is the government's job to do and what isn't. Who chooses those people? How do we verify that is the correct answer? Does the might of the government make them right? Who decides what is right?
> 
> Honestly, I can't answer those questions, and have never met anyone else who can either. Which is very disappointing to me, but it is my subjective opinion that we must analyze our assumptions, especially in the face of crises, in order not to institute a policy with unforeseen consequences.




Plenty of people can answer those questions.  Start with the Constitution.  But really, the idea that the government is supposed to protect it's citizens (along with providing goods and services that the population can't provide themselves) is centuries old, and are the reasons why nations have governments to begin with.  But specific to the US, your questions are literally answered in the Constitution.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

Sacrosanct said:


> Plenty of people can answer those questions.  Start with the Constitution.  But really, the idea that the government is supposed to protect it's citizens (along with providing goods and services that the population can't provide themselves) is centuries old, and are the reasons why nations have governments to begin with.  But specific to the US, your questions are literally answered in the Constitution.




I looked up the constitution, but didn't see any good justification for its authority.

The most section appears to be the preamble:

"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."

From that, we can gleam:

Who:
- "We the people"

What:
- "Form a more perfection union."

Why:

"establish justice"
"insure...tranquility"
"provide...common defence"
"promote the general Welfare"
secure liberty and prosperity

Problems:

No one living is included in "We the people."
No US citizen consents to live under the government established by the Constitution. (Though I believe domestic aliens and naturalized citizens do.)

Questions Unanswered:

Does consent grant legitimacy?
What is consent? Who gives it? Are we bound to it? If so, for how long? Why that long?
If consent doesn't give legitimacy, what does?
Does legit government exist?
Can legit government exist, even in theory?
What is justice? If we don't define it, how can we measure the government's success in that regard? Does it matter?
How much tranquility must be insured? Can we insured by any means?
Can the common defence operate outside US soil?
What is general welfare? Can _promote _ever mean _force_? If so, under what circumstances? Who decides under which circumstances?

Honestly, I don't know.


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> 1) True. I may not be fine. If I'm not, that's on me. I take responsibility for that. My silly life insurance policy might pay off for my wife.
> 
> 2) Yes. I might end up being a carrier. I agree there, but I'm not sure its irresponsible. Shouldn't someone who doesn't want to risk exposure make the personal choice to quarantine him/herself?
> 
> 3) I'm not sure it's anyone job to "handle a pandemic." Whether it should be is an interesting discussion I wish we were having. I'd like to see the arguments for and against. So far, I'm undecided on that front.



Re: point 3 

The responsibility of any government should be to protect its citizens. So, in terms of dealing with the pandemic it is the duty of the government 'to handle the pandemic' to protect the people. There should not be any argument against that.

In the USA you have your Constitution; I don't believe it is even morally acceptable to nit pick over whether the Constitution gives the government authority to manage epidemics. Democratic governments govern for the people; if they are unwilling  to protect the people from the threat of disease then a new government is required.


----------



## Zardnaar

seebs said:


> So... in order to avoid the economic consequences, you're going to maximize them?
> 
> Spreading diseases _also_ does economic damage. Mass graves large enough to be seen from space are lasting economic damage.




 Sensationalist. Modern commercial satellites can see down to about half a meter.

 So being able to be seen from space isn't impressive any more.


----------



## Sacrosanct

I don't know what to tell you man.  I don't even know where to start anymore.  And even if I did, it looks like it wouldn't help anyway.

So I'll just say this:

Social distancing works.  It helps slow down the infection rate, which in turn allows hospitals to keep up and treat everyone, rather than have to decide which of the people in the ER have to die because they don't have the personnel or equipment to save all of them (which is what's happening right now in places like Italy).

Even if you're OK, you can still carry and transmit the virus to everyone you come in contact with, and many of them aren't healthy 27 year olds.

So please, take this seriously.  Take social distancing seriously.  Even if you don't understand it.  Just trust the medical professionals who are all in agreement with what to do because they are experts in dealing with this.


----------



## OB1

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> I looked up the constitution, but didn't see any good justification for its authority.




The justification for its authority can be found in the Declaration of Independence.

_We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed_


----------



## Zardnaar

Thank God I live in an island nation with a functional government and healthcare and no constitution lol.


----------



## Fenris-77

So someone sugggests that by being out in public less you could save a life, and your response is philosophy 101 and a close reading of the constitution? Yikes.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

OB1 said:


> The justification for its authority can be found in the Declaration of Independence.
> 
> _We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed_




Questions:

Are all men created equal? What is equal?
Is there a Creator? Who gives the creator authority? An IKEA employ who makes a chair does not have the authority to do what he/she wants with it.
What makes those right unalienable?
Why those rights and not others?
What are just powers?
What is consent?
Do people born in the US gives consent to be governed by it? If so, how?


----------



## Sacrosanct

You must be great fun at the game table when the DM makes a ruling.


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> Of course I'm not well educated on it. You have that correct, but you're post is also full of assumptions, including:
> 
> 1) Public health officials have political authority
> 2) Their authority is legitimate
> 3) Their legitimate authority overrides personal authority
> 4) Death is a tragedy
> 5) Stricter precautions are worth any sacrifices to personal freedom they might inflict
> 6) The world is a community
> 7) Communities can have mindsets
> 
> Now  of coming with a set assumptions isn't always bad. Everyone brings assumptions to an argument, and our own assumptions are easier for others to spot than they are for others to spot.
> 
> But some of the reason there we might be disagreeing is a fundamental difference in our assumptions.
> 
> Now, while I might agree that I also hold 4 to be true, I have yet to see are good argument to support it. Our assumptions cannot always be supported. Often times they have no foundations. In fact, I'm almost sure all foundations we base our human cultures on have cracks in them, which is something I'm currently trying to come to terms with.
> 
> I admit my philosophy is shaky, and I am philosophically confused at the moment. I used to ask a lot of questions, but would receive few answers. Instead, I would be pushed away. As a result, I am probably less likely to take others' well being into consideration.
> 
> Which means, as I said before, *I should not be in charge of public policy*. I'm just not sure anyone else should be either.



You sound a lot like the infamous Mary Mallon AKA Typhoid Mary who created Typhoid outbreaks in the early 20th century. She was a carrier who never experienced symptoms but was highly infectious. Even when she was tracked down and identified she failed to act responsibly because she didn't see the issue and ended up being incarcerated for life in order to protect the public.

There's a moral there somewhere...


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

Acolyte of Zothique said:


> You sound a lot like the infamous Mary Mallon AKA Typhoid Mary who created Typhoid outbreaks in the early 20th century. She was a carrier who never experienced symptoms but was highly infectious. Even when she was tracked down and identified she failed to act responsibly because she didn't see the issue and ended up being incarcerated for life in order to protect the public.
> 
> There's a moral there somewhere...




Which is why authorities should better explain why they have authority.


----------



## Fenris-77

Sacrosanct said:


> You must be great fun at the game table when the DM makes a ruling.



What is a ruling?
Can it be said to be a ruling if it ill defines the diagetic frame?
What's you favorite color?
Why do you think you're the boss of me? 
What is the airspeed of a fullty laden African swallow?


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

Sacrosanct said:


> You must be great fun at the game table when the DM makes a ruling.




The way I see it, DMs have a much stronger foundation for their authority, actually. Their authority is based on players agreeing to participate in their campaign.


----------



## Sacrosanct

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> Their authority is based on players agreeing to participate in their campaign.




Which is literally the same thing as spelled out in the Declaration of Independence


----------



## Zardnaar

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> The way I see it, DMs have a much stronger foundation for their authority, actually. Their authority is based on players agreeing to participate in their campaign.




You're free to do whatever you like. I'm free to not have you play at my table.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

Sacrosanct said:


> Which is literally the same thing as spelled out in the Declaration of Independence




For the signers of the declaration, I agree.


----------



## WayOfTheFourElements

Zardnaar said:


> You're free to do whatever you like. I'm free to not have you play at my table.




Exactly.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

@WayOfTheFourElements

ENWorld is not the place for this particular tack of discussion.  I advise you drop that line.

Might I also *strongly* suggest that you take a course or two in Constitutional Law at a legitimate institution* taught by an acknowledged legal scholar to address your concerns.  The document plus accumulated case law will answer most of your questions.  (Possibly not to your liking or satisfaction, but...)


*after the pandemic has passed, of course


----------



## Zardnaar

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> For the signers of the declaration, I agree.




 Thankfully some if us live in sane countries. We're outperforming the USA in almost every metric and getting close economically per capita. Due to wealth distribution I think we might be beating the US there as well. 

 We're good at farming and put common sense additives to the vegetables.


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> Which is why authorities should better explain why they have authority.



Because they are democratically elected by the people and therefore are given the authority by the people and are responsible to the people? How about that? Or, in the case of Communist China, the state gives itself authority and doesn't need to explain itself. Which is why they were able to build 30 emergency hospitals in a matter of weeks.

For all your tortuous semantics I sincerely hope you do not lose someone close to you, an elderly relative perhaps or someone with an underlying health condition, due to coronavirus. If you do you'll quickly realise your clever thinking means absolutely nothing compared to the loss of a loved one. Nothing, and I mean nothing, is important anymore when you experience grief from bereavement.


----------



## Zardnaar

Acolyte of Zothique said:


> Because they are democratically elected by the people and therefore are given the authority by the people and are responsible to the people? How about that? Or, in the case of Communist China, the state gives itself authority and doesn't need to explain itself. Which is why they were able to build 30 emergency hospitals in a matter of weeks.
> 
> For all your tortuous semantics I sincerely hope you do not lose someone close to you, an elderly relative perhaps or someone with an underlying health condition, due to coronavirus. If you do you'll quickly realise your clever thinking means absolutely nothing compared to the loss of a loved one. Nothing, and I mean nothing, is important anymore when you experience grief from bereavement.



 Apparently the hospitals were concrete boxes used for propaganda. Chinese construction not the best and some had no running water or sewage or beds. 

 So did they technically build them. Yes. Were they what we would call a hospital no.

 Lack of regulation also caused it with wet markets. Public street get used as slaughter houses with no separation of species. So blood and viruses mix. That was bird flu with bird and human virus transmitted and mixing into pigs.

 Basically no one gives a crap, everyone is happy to scam each other and it's dog eat dog. Good for us we export milk powder.

Chinese propaganda works well enough.

There's videos online of them bulldozing live pigs into pits and setting them on fire. Good money on pork in China atm.


----------



## Lem23

edgelords gonna edgelord.


----------



## FrozenNorth

Zardnaar said:


> Thankfully some if us live in sane countries. We're outperforming the USA in almost every metric and getting close economically per capita. Due to wealth distribution I think we might be beating the US there as well.
> 
> We're good at farming and put common sense additives to the vegetables.



Eh, Way of the Four Elements indicated that he is not American and come from a country that has wine production.  He may be physically  closer to you than you want to recognize.


----------



## gnarlygninja

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> 1) Why didn't the airline screen him if they were worried?
> 
> 2) Why were people outside their homes if they didn't want to risk exposure?



I'm curious, if everyone is the master of their own domain and their personal authority is paramount, why you immediately shift the blame of a harmful action from the person who took it and place it on everyone else in the situation?


----------



## cmad1977

I was told by VERY SMART people right here in this very thread that this was a media hoax.


----------



## seebs

Zardnaar said:


> Sensationalist. Modern commercial satellites can see down to about half a meter.
> 
> So being able to be seen from space isn't impressive any more.




Okay, that's fair.

But given how quickly it's been happening, and and the supposedly relatively low mortality rate, it still looks pretty bad.



WayOfTheFourElements said:


> OK. I think I'm going to bow out here. I think we're arguing at different levels of analysis.




Apparently so. But you said you're 27, I'm assuming you are at least in principle capable of considering, not just the immediate and intended effects of an action, but also some of the unintended or indirect effects. So we could in theory work on similar levels of analysis, if that interested you.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I have never wanted one of these more than right now:





SANITIZE!  SANITIIIIZE!


----------



## Fenris-77

I think your little gold friend needs a little blue pill.


----------



## The Green Hermit

NotAYakk said:


> Washington State has 4 independent deaths (counting the one nursing home as one event) and 270 detected; they are missing 90%+ of their cases.




This is very old information.



Umbran said:


> *Mod Note:*
> 
> Yeah.  Let us keep the dehumanizing humor down, please and thank you.  I know black humor is all the rage but there's enough anxiety on the subject as it is.




In his slight defense, there is starting to be a big push for human composting. Personally, I think refraining from pumping formaldehyde into the dead so they look prettier at funerals would be a much bigger step.



FrozenNorth said:


> Eh, Way of the Four Elements indicated that he is not American and come from a country that has wine production.  He may be physically  closer to you than you want to recognize.




The US produces a lot of wine, including in my home state of Washington.


----------



## slobster

The Green Hermit said:


> The US produces a lot of wine, including in my home state of Washington.



Yeah I live in Central California, the middle of wine country. We export wine and whine in almost equal proportions.


----------



## Umbran

The Green Hermit said:


> In his slight defense, there is starting to be a big push for human composting. Personally, I think refraining from pumping formaldehyde into the dead so they look prettier at funerals would be a much bigger step.




1) Please don't argue with moderation in-thread.  It is against the board rules for good reason.  

2) There is a time and place for things, folks.  Make sure you are choosing them appropriately.


----------



## Sadras

I dunno guys, I quite enjoyed @WayOfTheFourElements philosophical quandry that was laid bare in this thread. I did not agree with his actions but it was an interesting and definitely worthy line of conversation and debate IMO. I kind of enjoy these intellectual sparrings, from both sides as long as it is kept civil which this was. 

Just another evening at the Lyceum, the Agora or the Forum


----------



## The Green Hermit

Umbran said:


> 1) Please don't argue with moderation in-thread.  It is against the board rules for good reason.
> 
> 2) There is a time and place for things, folks.  Make sure you are choosing them appropriately.




It was not my intent to argue with moderation, as overall I agreed with your stance. I am sorry my comment was taken that way.


----------



## seebs

Maybe relevant for people who want to read more about this.


----------



## slobster

Sadras said:


> I dunno guys, I quite enjoyed @WayOfTheFourElements philosophical quandry that was laid bare in this thread. I did not agree with his actions but it was an interesting and definitely worthy line of conversation and debate IMO. I kind of enjoy these intellectual sparrings, from both sides as long as it is kept civil which this was.
> 
> Just another evening at the Lyceum, the Agora or the Forum



I quite enjoy abstract philosophical discussions, even ones which challenge basic assumptions that are usually taken as axiomatic. In the abstract, if a friend were to come up with me and ask "so why DO we value human life?", I'd be happy to engage in the navel-gazing. Especially after like, beer number 4.

If someone is lying bleeding in the street and someone looks over at me and asks, "hey, have you ever thought about how many problems overpopulation causes?" then quite simply I'm not going to have patience or sympathy for their self-indulgent BS. When lives and wellbeings are at stake, I feel no particular compulsion to humor that sort of solipsism.

So no, I'm not bothered by that poster's questioning of philosophical concepts. I am appalled at the concrete behaviors that they are espousing and apparently practicing, and their stated disregard for the risk that said actions run, and moreso for their stated rationalization of "if my actions cause harm to others it's their fault". I don't find that point of view worthy of debate, no, except to simply denounce it.


----------



## Umbran

Sadras said:


> Just another evening at the Lyceum, the Agora or the Forum




This is not Cirvs Maximvs.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

MoonSong said:


> For H1N1 eleven years ago... most victims were females under thirty.



Did they ever figure out *why *women of that age category were so predisposed to it compared to men?  Was it a biological reason?  I feel like it probably wasnt.  Im curious though.  My intuition says its due to social patterns.  Like jobs and proximity to other social functions.


----------



## Sadras

slobster said:


> If someone is lying bleeding in the street and someone looks over at me and asks, "hey, have you ever thought about how many problems overpopulation causes?" then quite simply I'm not going to have patience or sympathy for their self-indulgent BS. When lives and wellbeings are at stake, I feel no particular compulsion to humor that sort of solipsism.
> 
> So no, I'm not bothered by that poster's questioning of philosophical concepts. I am appalled at the concrete behaviors that they are espousing and apparently practicing, and their stated disregard for the risk that said actions run, and moreso for their stated rationalization of "if my actions cause harm to others it's their fault". I don't find that point of view worthy of debate, no, except to simply denounce it.




Fair point. I understand where you coming from and people are gonna do what they gonna do (i.e. like fly on planes knowing full well they are infected). But in this moment of convesation I do not picture a lying bleeding person on the street - that image doesn't just jump out at me. I'm on Enworld and sometimes philosophical questions arise during or because of periods of chaos and not just after one's 4th beer.

Anyways I do not wish to argue with you or belabour the point. I did though enjoy your rebuttal posts with the poster and for entertaining the question for as long as you did.


----------



## FrozenNorth

The Green Hermit said:


> The US produces a lot of wine, including in my home state of Washington.



You insult my knowledge of world wine production by suggesting I did not know that. 
Way of the 4 Elements stated that they were not American, AND mentioned a nearby vineyard.


----------



## FrozenNorth

Son of the Serpent said:


> Did they ever figure out *why *women of that age category were so predisposed to it compared to men?  Was it a biological reason?  I feel like it probably wasnt.  Im curious though.  My intuition says its due to social patterns.  Like jobs and proximity to other social functions.



Given that humankind had just finished killing large numbers of men without assistance from a pandemic, it may have been simple probability.


----------



## FrogReaver

Sacrosanct said:


> You're continuing to ignore 2 important facts:
> 
> 1. Being 27 doesn't mean you'll be fine.  You don't know.  Outside of a fatality rate, 20% of people with the virus require breathing assistance.




I wish the lying stats would stop.  They make this sound way more overblown than it is.  20% of people with the virus do not require breathing assistance.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

FrozenNorth said:


> Given that humankind had just finished killing large numbers of men without assistance from a pandemic, it may have been simple probability.



Aha.  So it was due to social factors.  Availability drop in men due to war.  As i said i had a feeling it would be a difference of social factors and proximity.  The men werent around.  A heightened percentage were dead due to war.  I had forgotten to consider the proximity of that event.


----------



## MoonSong

Zardnaar said:


> Apparently the hospitals were concrete boxes used for propaganda. Chinese construction not the best and some had no running water or sewage or beds.
> 
> So did they technically build them. Yes. Were they what we would call a hospital no.



The Chinese handling of the situation is worrisome. Lots of information is mixed with propaganda. All the supresion of information during the early months and gagging and jailing of doctors isn't very confidence inspiring.  (I mean they waited two months and a few hundred patiens to alert the world instead of the 36 hours and three patients my country's government took in 2009)


----------



## MoonSong

FrozenNorth said:


> Given that humankind had just finished killing large numbers of men without assistance from a pandemic, it may have been simple probability.





Son of the Serpent said:


> Aha.  So it was due to social factors.  Availability drop in men due to war.  As i said i had a feeling it would be a difference of social factors and proximity.  The men werent around.  A heightened percentage were dead due to war.  I had forgotten to consider the proximity of that event.



Wait, wait wait, I'm talking H1N1 back in 2009, not the Spanish Flu in 1918.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> The Chinese handling of the situation is worrisome. Lots of information is mixed with propaganda. All the supresion of information during the early months and gagging and jailing of doctors isn't very confidence inspiring.  (I mean they waited two months and a few hundred patiens to alert the world instead of the 36 hours and three patients my country's government took in 2009)




  The Chinese have built ghost cities. The CCP has been pumping money into construction. 

So they've created a trillion dollars housing crisis with unlivable buildings. They don't even outfit them. And they're falling apart. 

 Same approach with the hospitals. They're also trying to blame the USA and Italy while presenting whatshisface as the greatest leader ever. 

SerpentZA and ADVchina are covering it on youtube. They lived there for over a decade and left about a year ago due to how crazy it was getting pre virus.

 I've seen a NZ freezing works. Compared with China it's comparing apples to a rotten corpse.


----------



## slobster

Zardnaar said:


> The Chinese have built ghost cities. The CCP has been pumping money into construction.
> 
> So they've created a trillion dollars housing crisis with unlivable buildings. They don't even outfit them. And they're falling apart.
> 
> Same approach with the hospitals. They're also trying to blame the USA and Italy while presenting whatshisface as the greatest leader ever.
> 
> SerpentZA and ADVchina are covering it on youtube. They lived there for over a decade and left about a year ago due to how crazy it was getting pre virus.



The Chinese ghost cities are fascinating and bizarre, and I've always thought they'd be a fantastic setting for an urban fantasy RPG dungeon crawl. Sure, they LOOK abandoned, but that's just because the things that live there aren't easy for normal mortals to see...


----------



## Zardnaar

slobster said:


> The Chinese ghost cities are fascinating and bizarre, and I've always thought they'd be a fantastic setting for an urban fantasy RPG dungeon crawl. Sure, they LOOK abandoned, but that's just because the things that live there aren't easy for normal mortals to see...




 Apparently they did the same for these new hospitals. They got them built and dumped a heap of sick people in them with no sanitation in some cases.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> I wish the lying stats would stop.  They make this sound way more overblown than it is.  20% of people with the virus do not require breathing assistance.




So, here's a strong word of advice - accept the fact that most folks are _MISTAKEN_ rather than lying.  Remembering this will go a long way in allowing you to correct the issue.


----------



## slobster

Zardnaar said:


> Apparently they did the same for these new hospitals. They got them built and dumped a heap of sick people in them with no sanitation in some cases.



Yeah from what I've seen they were less hospitals and more "giant concrete boxes to park people in close quarters with questionable sanitation", but I do wish them the best in recovering from the virus. Those hospitals would also be excellent creepy pasta fuel though. 

I wonder if I could convince anyone to play a one-shot modern fantasy game taking place in China. Dresden Files RPG maybe? Maybe I'll wait for 5E modern.


----------



## Zardnaar

slobster said:


> Yeah from what I've seen they were less hospitals and more "giant concrete boxes to park people in close quarters with questionable sanitation", but I do wish them the best in recovering from the virus. Those hospitals would also be excellent creepy pasta fuel though.
> 
> I wonder if I could convince anyone to play a one-shot modern fantasy game taking place in China. Dresden Files RPG maybe? Maybe I'll wait for 5E modern.




 I would also take Chinese figures with a large dose of sodium chloride. 

 South Korea would be a lot more reliable but they have a good health system there.


----------



## Bitbrain

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I have never wanted one of these more than right now:
> View attachment 119892
> 
> SANITIZE!  SANITIIIIZE!




My mother would do almost anything to be stuck in one of these until the all-clear is given for this novel Coronavirus... if she weren’t claustrophobic.


----------



## MoonSong

slobster said:


> I wonder if I could convince anyone to play a one-shot modern fantasy game taking place in China. Dresden Files RPG maybe? Maybe I'll wait for 5E modern.



If you can wait for the weekend before Easter, I would love to join.


----------



## Umbran

MoonSong said:


> For H1N1 eleven years ago... most victims were females under thirty.




Cite, please?  I'm not finding that figure anywhere.


----------



## Mallus

Well, after spending the 1st day of at least 2 weeks of working from home (my office is in Montgomery County, PA, which is under lockdown) I’m off to game night. Getting a head start on the post-apocalypse by playing some Mutant Crawl Classic!

We’ll see when the next in-person session is...


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> So, here's a strong word of advice - accept the fact that most folks are _MISTAKEN_ rather than lying.  Remembering this will go a long way in allowing you to correct the issue.




Easy goes it - i never accused him of lying - accused the stat he was quoting of lying.  Major difference


----------



## slobster

Zardnaar said:


> I would also take Chinese figures with a large dose of sodium chloride.
> 
> South Korea would be a lot more reliable but they have a good health system there.



Not sure which figures you are talking about, but I take everything from the CCP with a large dose of skepticism. I'm half Chinese myself, I was actually supposed to leave for Taiwan to see family this weekend back before the whole thing started, so I'm not a big fan of theirs.

Love China, though. Whether it would be wuxia-inspired feudal fantasy or modern urban fantasy creepypasta, I'd love to run a game set there/inspired by China some day.


----------



## Zardnaar

slobster said:


> Not sure which figures you are talking about, but I take everything from the CCP with a large dose of skepticism. I'm half Chinese myself, I was actually supposed to leave for Taiwan to see family this weekend back before the whole thing started, so I'm not a big fan of theirs.
> 
> Love China, though. Whether it would be wuxia-inspired feudal fantasy or modern urban fantasy creepypasta, I'd love to run a game set there/inspired by China some day.




 Pretty much any figure relating to the virus.


----------



## slobster

MoonSong said:


> If you can wait for the weekend before Easter, I would love to join.



I've had very mixed luck on forum games, so assuming you don't live near the Monterey Peninsula in Cali, that's a very big maybe. Then again the one system I have had success with online is DFRPG, so if some people are interested I might be down!

I'll take this to PM though.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I went to the grocery today, and while there were crowds and some evidence of panic buying- bread, pasta & canned good were severely depleted, and the paper goods aisle was empty of everything except trash bags, cardboard boxes, and a Mexican- everyone was at least still being civil.

I've actually had much worse shopping experiences during the holidays.

...and I just remembered I forgot to by red beans.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> Easy goes it - i never accused him of lying - accused the stat he was quoting of lying.  Major difference




Right.  And your history on this Earth leads you to believe that's actually going to protect you from offending someone?

A lie is the _knowing_ presentation of inaccurate information with _intent_ to deceive or mislead.  The statistic, in and of itself, knows nothing, and has no intent.  _PEOPLE_ know things, and have intent.  People lie.  Numbers are merely not correct in their context.

For example, it may be that 20% _of those who are admitted to the hospital_ with covid-19 need assistance breathing (within some population - like maybe in Italy so far, or something).  Or maybe there's some other qualifier that's been dropped as the information passed from one person to another.  It may be that the statistic was never a lie - it could have been fragmented by someone who didn't remember it in full, or who didn't understand what was said to them.

It is an error.  It should be corrected.  But as soon as you attach the word "lie" to it, it starts getting into moral judgement territory, which doesn't help people accept the point.


----------



## slobster

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I went to the grocery today, and while there were crowds and some evidence of panic buying- bread, pasta & canned good were severely depleted, and the paper goods aisle was empty of everything except trash bags, cardboard boxes, and a Mexican- everyone was at least still being civil.
> 
> I've actually had much worse shopping experiences during the holidays.
> 
> ...and I just remembered I forgot to by red beans.



Don't worry, I saw this really great tutorial online for how you can make your own red beans from simple ingredients to make it through the coronavirus pandemic! All you need are white beans and a red permanent marker...


----------



## Sadras

nvm


----------



## Zardnaar

slobster said:


> Don't worry, I saw this really great tutorial online for how you can make your own red beans from simple ingredients to make it through the coronavirus pandemic! All you need are white beans and a red permanent marker...




 You can also plant stuff in the ground and in a mere 6-12 weeks food!!!


----------



## slobster

Zardnaar said:


> You can also plant stuff in the ground and in a mere 6-12 weeks food!!!



I've already buried 3 dozen rolls of toilet paper in my backyard. When society collapses and supplies are scarce, I'll be trading my organic-grown TP to the supermutants and living like a prince!


----------



## Zardnaar

slobster said:


> I've already buried 3 dozen rolls of toilet paper in my backyard. When society collapses and supplies are scarce, I'll be trading my organic-grown TP to the supermutants and living like a prince!




 Meanwhile where I live....






 OooohhTP.

 That's only one shelf out of 3 in a very small supermarket. I expect panic buying this weekend.

  If you're rich these days you can TP someone's house.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> Right.  And your history on this Earth leads you to believe that's actually going to protect you from offending someone?




In the past I've not worried as much about being offensive as being right.  I think you are right though - when there's a non offensive way to phrase something it should be taken.  The problem for me is that I don't tend to spot the potential offense in the middle of a discussion.



> A lie is the _knowing_ presentation of inaccurate information with _intent_ to deceive or mislead.  The statistic, in and of itself, knows nothing, and has no intent.  _PEOPLE_ know things, and have intent.  People lie.  Numbers are merely not correct in their context.




More or less agreed.

I still think it's possible for a person mistakenly present a lying statistic as if it's the whole story and to do so with no intent to deceive or mislead on their part.  I understand this belief is not common as I thought it was and so in hindsight I can definitely see where it could cause offense.  



> For example, it may be that 20% _of those who are admitted to the hospital_ with covid-19 need assistance breathing (within some population - like maybe in Italy so far, or something).  Or maybe there's some other qualifier that's been dropped as the information passed from one person to another.  It may be that the statistic was never a lie - it could have been fragmented by someone who didn't remember it in full, or who didn't understand what was said to them.




More or less agreed.



> It is an error.  It should be corrected.  But as soon as you attach the word "lie" to it, it starts getting into moral judgement territory, which doesn't help people accept the point.




Wasn't my intent and I apologize.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Same here, but we're in a small town. As soon as you go to even the next biggest town, it becomes an issue.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Gamed last night and everyone seemed very thankful to be able to take their mind off things...with Tomb of Annihilation 

But as of today the venue is temporarily shuttering until the risk in being open is past. It's a good thing we had such a fun session, since it looks like we're on hiatus for a while.

I'm enjoying a very nice Gruner Veltliner as we speak, er, type.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ralif Redhammer said:


> Gamed last night and everyone seemed very thankful to be able to take their mind off things...with Tomb of Annihilation
> 
> But as of today the venue is temporarily shuttering until the risk in being open is past. It's a good thing we had such a fun session, since it looks like we're on hiatus for a while.
> 
> I'm enjoying a very nice Gruner Veltliner as we speak, er, type.




 Bit low on the essentials.


----------



## SkidAce

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Re: booze
> 
> Our liquor cart:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Our stockpile:




Throw out that gingerbread rum....keep everything else, and send me the Bird Dog.


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> Cite, please?  I'm not finding that figure anywhere.



I have found some "news clippings", but not the sources themselves. In one case in particular because there's no way to search on the news site anything before 2013, and the doctor that posted another didn't give sources. 
But on a second read, I need to make a precision, it turns out I was misremembering. Most victims in _Northern Mexico City_ during the initial outbreak, were women between 20 and 40 years.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

SkidAce said:


> Throw out that gingerbread rum....keep everything else, and send me the Bird Dog.



I bought that rum- along with King’s Ginger- while searching for a replacement for Art In the Age’s Snap, which is no longer in production.  King’s Ginger was better, but I still have to work on getting rid of that CM.


----------



## robus

WayOfTheFourElements said:


> OK. I think I'm going to bow out here. I think we're arguing at different levels of analysis.



ok, thanks for your input Spock!


----------



## seebs

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/whats-your-risk-dying-covid-19-inadvertently-death-someone-scott/
		


Useful concrete numbers about likely impacts, statistically.


----------



## FrogReaver

seebs said:


> https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/whats-your-risk-dying-covid-19-inadvertently-death-someone-scott/
> 
> 
> 
> Useful concrete numbers about likely impacts, statistically.




I would t say “concrete” but it’s interesting even if I think a fe important variables aren’t accounted for.


----------



## GreyLord

Not sure why everyone is going for alcohol.

I would have thought Coffee would be the biggest thing for people to try to stock up on!!!

Even without work the world could end tomorrow if enough people don't get their cup in the morning.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> Not sure why everyone is going for alcohol.
> 
> I would have thought Coffee would be the biggest thing for people to try to stock up on!!!
> 
> Even without work the world could end tomorrow if enough people don't get their cup in the morning.




 Something to do stuck inside. You're not going to drink 6 coffees.6 beers or 6 litres of beer though......


----------



## GreyLord

Zardnaar said:


> Something to do stuck inside. You're not going to drink 6 coffees.6 beers or 6 litres of beer though......



True, but murder might be on someone's mind if they don't get their coffee...or at least may be thinking of murdering someone before their morning cup.

Coffee makes the world go round...at least in some areas of the world.  Not sure of NZ though.

On the otherhand, I know people who go through 6 cups of coffee before noon!


----------



## seebs

FrogReaver said:


> I would t say “concrete” but it’s interesting even if I think a fe important variables aren’t accounted for.




Oh, I didn't know you were an epidemiologist!


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> True, but murder might be on someone's mind if they don't get their coffee...or at least may be thinking of murdering someone before their morning cup.
> 
> Coffee makes the world go round...at least in some areas of the world.  Not sure of NZ though.
> 
> On the otherhand, I know people who go through 6 cups of coffee before noon!




 Same here, I generally drink around 3-4 coffee a day.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

My Dad drinks a few cups per day, but for me, it’s more of an occasional drink.  Like...a couple cups a month.

Tea, OTOH, I almost drink like water, sometimes.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Tea, OTOH, I almost drink like water, sometimes.




Yea, and verily, the tea's the thing!


----------



## Azzy

Umbran said:


> Yea, and verily, the tea's the thing!



I'm another tea drinker.


----------



## MoonSong

I'm more of a milk drinker. But coffee does wonders in a pinch.


----------



## FrogReaver

seebs said:


> Oh, I didn't know you were an epidemiologist!




fallacy of authority?


----------



## Zardnaar

My theory is alcohol drowns a virus. I'm gonna grab some supplies and self isolate for a month. 

 You can support this experiment via my patreon ragingalcholic@boozefest.com.

 Also seeking treatment at Central American Spiritual Healers. You can use the abbreviation and make the cheque out to C.A.S.H.


----------



## MoonSong

Zardnaar said:


> My theory is alcohol drowns a virus. I'm gonna grab some supplies and self isolate for a month.
> 
> You can support this experiment via my patreon ragingalcholic@boozefest.com.



My Dad used to claim he would never get sick since alcohol cauterized his throat.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> My Dad used to claim he would never get sick since alcohol cauterized his throat.




 Most booze has been off the menu since January. Drink an average of 1 can a week and each can is 1.9 or 3.3 standard drinks.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

MoonSong said:


> The Chinese handling of the situation is worrisome. Lots of information is mixed with propaganda. All the supresion of information during the early months and gagging and jailing of doctors isn't very confidence inspiring.  (I mean they waited two months and a few hundred patiens to alert the world instead of the 36 hours and three patients my country's government took in 2009)



Agreed.  Also turkey.  Turkey decideddays after the corona outbreak started picking spead to flood neighboring countries with an increased influx of immigrants.  Bad timing.  They almost seem to have decided to increase the flow partly because of the corona pandemic and related issues.  They are being really weird about the situation.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

MoonSong said:


> Wait, wait wait, I'm talking H1N1 back in 2009, not the Spanish Flu in 1918.



Oh.  Hmmm.  Still would likely be due to a difference in social factors and related patterns.  Not the same ones.  But in this case too.  Sorry.  Totally thought we were talking about spanish flu there.


----------



## seebs

FrogReaver said:


> fallacy of authority?




Not in the least! It's just that a very short time ago, you were so unfamiliar with "cause" and "effect" that you expressed the inability to see how people posting anti-semitic rants could lead to harm to actual people, and now, you understand cause and effect so well that you're comfortable claiming (without any fact-checkable details, of course) that there are flaws in a specialist's analysis of material in their field. Excellent progress, you've clearly been hitting the books.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

The snark has reached critical mass in this thread.  Its getting hilarious.


----------



## Zardnaar

About $3.20 USD.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> About $3.20 USD.
> View attachment 119905



Hey, no porn!


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Hey, no porn!




Sorry.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

For those quoting different mortality rates for this virus, one of the main doctors working on this in the US explained that people with already existing lung issues were much more vulnerable to this, so the higher the smoking rate in a country, the higher the mortality rate will be. This is another reason it affects the elderly more, since their generations did more smoking than the younger generations.

What I am still wondering about, and need to look into for people I know, is why diabetics are also more in danger from this virus.


----------



## Doc_Klueless

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> What I am still wondering about, and need to look into for people I know, is why diabetics are also more in danger from this virus.



"People with *diabetes* are more susceptible to developing *infections*, as high blood sugar levels can weaken the patient's immune system defenses."

This is a problem I run into a lot in the Anesthesia field. Many diabetics do not understand how not controlling it can have such system-wide devastating consequences.


----------



## Sadras

Son of the Serpent said:


> Agreed.  Also turkey.  Turkey decideddays after the corona outbreak started picking spead to flood neighboring countries with an increased influx of immigrants.  Bad timing.  They almost seem to have decided to increase the flow partly because of the corona pandemic and related issues.  They are being really weird about the situation.




There is a growing suspicion (probably biased) that the numbers reported by Turkey have very much been doctored.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

Sadras said:


> There is a growing suspicion (probably biased) that the numbers reported by Turkey have very much been doctored.



Actually i would say it is implausible that turkey has not distorted the facts about its infected count.  Why?  Because turkey has only recently admitted they even had any cases yet they had been surrounded by nations with signifficant counts for weeks, they have a super porace border, and their medical aparatus is poor.  They had every reason to be one if the earliest nations recording cases and at some of the highest numbers.  I would consider it bizarre if they in fact didnt doctor any outgoing info.


----------



## R_J_K75

I just took 8 hours off from worrying about this (RADIO EDIT) and it felt....GREAT!!! (3) of  my friends came by and we threw darts, swapped spit and told war stories. There is no government mandate so we weren't breaking any quarantine laws but is that social distancing?  Is 4 people as opposed to 6 or 7 hanging out a better option right?


----------



## Lem23

I'm not sure swapping spit is going to reduce your chances of getting it...


----------



## Bitbrain

Zardnaar said:


> About $3.20 USD.
> View attachment 119905




According to my biological sister (who bought around two weeks of food last night so our family can get by), EVERY store in our local area is out of TP to the point where it has been dubbed “the Charmin-pocalypse”


----------



## R_J_K75

Lem23 said:


> I'm not sure swapping spit is going to reduce your chances of getting it...




Yeah good point, but its an old saying here...


----------



## dave2008

I've had to cancel my games and decided to self quarantine after meeting a friend in Boston who had just returned from Basel.  About half-way through dinner he told me a colleague of his in Basel tested positive and his company has suspended travel.  Not sure why he didn't lead with that!  I know the risk I'm infected is low, but I don't feel like it is worth possibly spreading it so I am working from home for the next few weeks, and no D&D.


----------



## FrozenNorth

Son of the Serpent said:


> Oh.  Hmmm.  Still would likely be due to a difference in social factors and related patterns.  Not the same ones.  But in this case too.  Sorry.  Totally thought we were talking about spanish flu there.



I apologize as well for confusing the Spanish Flu and H1N1.


----------



## R_J_K75

dave2008 said:


> I've had to cancel my games and decided to self quarantine after meeting a friend in Boston who had just returned from Basel.  About half-way through dinner he told me a colleague of his in Basel tested positive and his company has suspended travel.  Not sure why he didn't lead with that!  I know the risk I'm infected is low, but I don't feel like it is worth possibly spreading it so I am working from how for the next few weeks, and no D&D.




That's not cool to ambush, not say something.  What a knob to not inform you afterwards, at least then give you a fighting chance.


----------



## dave2008

R_J_K75 said:


> That's not cool to ambush, not say something.  What a knob to not inform you afterwards, at least then give you a fighting chance.



Agreed, sometimes smart people don't have the most common sense.  Regardless, I hadn't seen him in 6 years and I wouldn't really have done much different if he had warned me.


----------



## R_J_K75

dave2008 said:


> Agreed, sometimes smart people don't have the most common sense.  Regardless, I hadn't seen him in 6 years and I wouldn't really have done much different if he had warned me.




I played cards with 6 of my friends last Friday (the 6th and it was so good to see some of those people I'd not seen in 10-15 years.  Live life while you have it.


----------



## NotAYakk

So, "flatten the curve" is a good way to get people to start with the right thing.

The thing is, it won't work, if your goal is to get herd immunity (30-70% infected and recovered).  If you kept the infection rate below what the US health care system can handle, we are talking about an epidemic spread out over 10 years.

But the steps involving "flatten the curve" are still needed.  We need to (a) buy time, (b) get the number of cases under control.  Get R0 under 1.0 and the number of new cases starts *shrinking* instead of growing, and social distancing can do that.

China and SK seem to have succeeded.  *This weekend we find out if Italy did* - there is a delay between measures and results of tests when you are only testing people sick enough to go to the hospital.  (SK started testing *everyone*, and China did it after they got numbers under control, but Italy is not doing it now).

On Thursday Italy had 2400 new cases.  On Friday 2600 new cases.  This is an increase, but *not a steep one*.  If Saturday and Sunday it stays in the 2500 range or lower, it means that Italy has probably brought R0 under 1.0, and continuing the same measures will result in the number of cases in Italy starting to drop.

If not, it means that Italian measures are probably not strict enough to control this.

(R0 is the number of people an infected person infects)

Exponential growth is SCARY.  Exponential growth and the 2-3 week delay in mortality after infection is why Italy went from "this is bad" to that utter disaster that is going on now in an eyeblink, and is why France, Spain, USA and UK are in deep naughty word but don't know it yet.

Get R0 under 1.0 and exponential growth starts working for us -- the epidemic shrinks exponentially.

Get R0 under 1.0 and wait 4 weeks and the pressure on the health care system *starts* to relax.

Speaking of which, China has arrived in Europe with 30 tonnes of supplies -- 1000 respirators and millions of masks -- and some experienced doctors, and is deploying in Spain and Italy.  <3 <3 <3 <3 <3

With R0 under 1.0, and time, Italy can get its numbers down.  And *then* it can restart case tracking (while keeping R0 down) and mass testing (everyone with a sniffle to start).

That is where China and SK are right now.

Once you get your internal epidemic under control, you raise the border.  Quarantine for all people from outside of a green zone, with Covid 19 negative test to let you in.  Possibly exceptions for people with special licenses who both restrict contact and get regular tests (truckers moving goods and similar).

And you start spreading the green zone.  We start exporting containment help to the red zone, like China is exporting it to Europe.  There are maybe two Green Zones on the entire planet right now.  Taiwan and Israel.

I won't do the math on how many people die if we go this way.  It is really depressing.  But the other ways are worse.

This is not "just" a flu.  This is spanish-flu pandemic territory.  We can give up, and accept a ~5% mortality rate.  But we have learned things since 1918, and we can fight this mofo, and we can win.
Sentiment understood and agreed with, but rules is rules- no profanity.


----------



## R_J_K75

NotAYakk said:


> I won't do the math on how many people die if we go this way. It is really depressing. But the other ways are worse.




Most likely some of will live, and some of us will die.  Its like an old Dragon article I read 20+ years ago, as a DM I use the 50/50 rule, either you succeed or you fail at what you are trying to accomplish.  Ultimately we all have 1 foot in the grave, just look out for the banana peel.


----------



## Umbran

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> What I am still wondering about, and need to look into for people I know, is why diabetics are also more in danger from this virus.




Because it generalizes to anyone with _any_ major health issue is more vulnerable.  Covid-19 puts a huge stress on your respiratory system and immune systems, and any health issue that makes those harder for you to handle increases your risk.  So, pre-existing lung disease, diabetes, high blood pressure, if you've recently been treated for cancer, or are otherwise immune-suppressed, asthma, liver or kidney disease.  I think folks will get the picture.


----------



## seebs

The point of flattening the curve is to buy time and keep the medical system less overwhelmed, you still end up with a lot of people getting sick, although possibly fewer if, say, the weather changes in a way that makes it spread slower.


----------



## NotAYakk

seebs said:


> The point of flattening the curve is to buy time and keep the medical system less overwhelmed, you still end up with a lot of people getting sick, although possibly fewer if, say, the weather changes in a way that makes it spread slower.



Yes, but to flatten it enough to keep it under US healthcare capacity, you need to stretch the epidemic over 10 years.

That seems less likely than giving up (and accepting 10+ million dead on US soil), or eradication (making green zones, and spreading it, globally and in-nation).

Our choices are to fight a war on this and win, or accept 350+ million dead worldwide, and more every year.

There are a number of ways to fight the war.

The only proven method to win locally is the Wuhan/SK/Taiwan models.  We could also get lucky, buy time, and develop a vaccine or effective treatment.

There are an infinite number of ways to surrender.

I think we should aim for the proven path to victory via eradication, while researching treatments and vaccines.  After winning localy, we start expanding green zones to places that need help.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> fallacy of authority?




No.  But we are living in the Dunning-Kruger Chainsaw Massacre.

There is a common misconception of the logical fallacy of the appeal to authority.  You are correct if you say that the fact that an authority said it, doesn't make it true, in and of itself.  It is an argument on trusting a personality, rather than an effort.

The appeal to authority says that a person who is an expert cannot rest on their laurels - they have to actually do the work, show the logic. "Because I am an expert and I say so," does not cut it.  "Trust me, I'm a doctor," has no standing.  The fact that an expert in the field has been furiously working with real-world data, however, still means a great deal, and has much standing. 

Two things that the appeal to authority _doesn't_ say:  1) An expert is likely to be wrong, and 2) A non-expert is likely to be correct, or has the understanding to properly critique an expert.

If you are not an expert, your say so doesn't mean anything either.  Your "feeling" that they are missing things is worthless.  Can you show your logic and do the work?  If so, you should do so.  If not, your input on whether they're correct is of no value.

That's a little blunt, and I'm sorry for that.  But it is true.


----------



## seebs

NotAYakk said:


> Yes, but to flatten it enough to keep it under US healthcare capacity, you need to stretch the epidemic over 10 years.




"Under" isn't a boolean, in this case. The _amount_ of overrun matters. We're never really "under" capacity here, but there's a huge difference between levels of oversaturation. If we have 5 people that need ventilators, and 4 ventilators, one person dies. If we have 15 people that need ventilators, and 4 ventilators, eleven people die.

Flattening the curve _matters_.



> That seems less likely than giving up (and accepting 10+ million dead on US soil), or eradication (making green zones, and spreading it, globally and in-nation).




And yet! It's still _always_ and unconditionally better to flatten the curve! It _always_ produces better results. Not just sometimes, every time. Especially since there's other work happening that may help (such as people working on isolating antibodies, etcetera), which may produce dramatic improvements in outcomes _when they happen_ -- so anything that gets us more time is good.



> I think we should aim for the proven path to victory via eradication, while researching treatments and vaccines.  After winning localy, we start expanding green zones to places that need help.




Are you an epidemiologist?

Because _every single one of them_ has advocated for "flatten the curve" as the most important, most urgent, most immediate thing. We aren't in a position to do what Wuhan did, we don't have a government that auhtoritarian. We aren't in a position to do what SK/Taiwan did, because we gutted our disease-response forces and spent two months pretending it wasn't a problem, and it's far too late for that. We have plenty of transmission through the general populace all over, and orders of magnitude too many sick people to track everything.


----------



## slobster

Umbran said:


> No.  But we are living in the Dunning-Kruger Chainsaw Massacre.



Okay I have a question for you.

How do I upvote a comment more than once? Thx in advance.


----------



## pcrotteau

As a Diabetic (type 2, insulin dependent), it takes me longer to heal from most things, injuries or sicknesses. I have to poke my fingers three times a day to draw blood (a great way for infection to enter) and inject myself with my insulins 5 times a day. 

Your skin is a great barrier to disease, mine looks like the French border with Belgium in '40.


----------



## Umbran

slobster said:


> Okay I have a question for you.
> 
> How do I upvote a comment more than once? Thx in advance.




I admit that I didn't invent the phrase.


----------



## NotAYakk

seebs said:


> "Under" isn't a boolean, in this case. The _amount_ of overrun matters. We're never really "under" capacity here, but there's a huge difference between levels of oversaturation. If we have 5 people that need ventilators, and 4 ventilators, one person dies. If we have 15 people that need ventilators, and 4 ventilators, eleven people die.
> 
> Flattening the curve _matters_.



Yes it does.  But it isn't *a solution*.

We aren't going to do this for 10 years.  If our plan is to actually develop herd immunity and get 30%-70% infected, and we do it over 10 years, we stay under capacity.  If we do it in 5 years, we blow past capacity, and death rates hit 3%-5% instead of 4%-10%.  If we do over 1 year, death rates become basically the same as if we never did it.

I'm saying *it isn't a solution*.  I'm saying the steps involved in flattening the curve do save lives, they do delay deaths, and they can be part of a solution.  But this disease is far to nasty to be solved by "flattening the curve".


> And yet! It's still _always_ and unconditionally better to flatten the curve! It _always_ produces better results. Not just sometimes, every time. Especially since there's other work happening that may help (such as people working on isolating antibodies, etcetera), which may produce dramatic improvements in outcomes _when they happen_ -- so anything that gets us more time is good.



Yes, it can buy time for *another solution*.

We have 1 solution that works.  Its initial steps are helped by reducing infections.  Other solutions may or may not arrive.

We should move towards the direction of that working solution.

This is the same direction as the "flattening the curve" non-solution, so doing the steps involved with flattening the curve is great. But we should not expect that the measures taken to flatten the curve will go away in a few weeks, unless we *move to another solution*.

Every location that has beat this back has engaged in large scale social isolation.  Right now I'm staring at stats out of Italy to find out if their relatively modest restrictions are enough to make the growth curve go sub-exponential (the last 2 days looked good -- 2400, 2600 new cases -- if they keep it up over the weekend, I'm really excited).


> Are you an epidemiologist?



No, I'm a literate person with whose mathematical literacy in the top fraction of a percent who has read a lot of epidemiological stuff over the past 2 months because I've been concerned about this issue.  (Note: Being good at math is mostly useless in life, but it helps when understanding exponential curves.)


> Because _every single one of them_ has advocated for "flatten the curve" as the most important, most urgent, most immediate thing.



Yes, we should social distance and reduce transmission.  "Flatten the curve" *as a solution* is what I'm talking about. The idea we just let it saturate the population and we just make it happen slower doesn't work (well, I'm not willing to give up yet), and if our solution is "flatten the curve" that is all it provides.


> We aren't in a position to do what Wuhan did, we don't have a government that auhtoritarian.



How about SK?  How about Italy?


> We aren't in a position to do what SK/Taiwan did, because we gutted our disease-response forces and spent two months pretending it wasn't a problem, and it's far too late for that. We have plenty of transmission through the general populace all over, and orders of magnitude too many sick people to track everything.



The *get to forking work*.

You go to war with the troops you have, not the ones you want.  This is a war, and something like 300 million people around the world, and 15 million US citizens, lives are at stake, plus many more crippled for life.

Yes, your federal executive is a fuckup.  Go talk to your *state government* and get them to *hire the pandemic experts they fired* and *get your state on it*.  Start with what you can do (social distancing, limiting travel).  Raise finagling taxes or borrow money to start funding your *own labs* to do testing.

Get *your state* on a war footing now, don't want for Trump and gang to get a brain.  "Flatten the curve" will *buy time*, and your federal government executive response is busy shaking people's hands after being exposed to it and arranging huge conferences to spread this thing.

And if your state is also brain dead?  Talk to your *city*.  If that is brain dead?  Talk to your *neighbors*, your *church*.  Failing all of that, organize your gosh-darn *gaming group*.

Find the *largest organization* you can direct to attack this mofoing plague.

Have absolutely nobody?  Call up elderly neighbors and see about delivering them food and supplies.

"Flatten the curve" is not going to solve this.  The US president is not going to solve this.

But you can help.  Very locally, you can help the vulnerable stay safe (deliver food and stuff so they don't have to expose themselves), which isn't much, but is something.  Going up from there it gets more abstract and less direct, but a modern US city isn't a helpless creature who has to wait for Trump to stop pretending this is a Hoax.

As noted, language, watch it please.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> But we are living in the Dunning-Kruger Chainsaw Massacre.



This movie needs to be made.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NotAYakk said:


> Yes it does.  But it isn't *a solution*.
> 
> We aren't going to do this for 10 years.  If our plan is to actually develop herd immunity and get 30%-70% infected, and we do it over 10 years, we stay under capacity.  If we do it in 5 years, we blow past capacity, and death rates hit 3%-5% instead of 4%-10%.  If we do over 1 year, death rates become basically the same as if we never did it.
> 
> I'm saying *it isn't a solution*.  I'm saying the steps involved in flattening the curve do save lives, they do delay deaths, and they can be part of a solution.  But this disease is far to nasty to be solved by "flattening the curve".
> 
> Yes, it can buy time for *another solution*.
> 
> We have 1 solution that works.  Its initial steps are helped by reducing infections.  Other solutions may or may not arrive.
> 
> We should move towards the direction of that working solution.
> 
> This is the same direction as the "flattening the curve" non-solution, so doing the steps involved with flattening the curve is great. But we should not expect that the measures taken to flatten the curve will go away in a few weeks, unless we *move to another solution*.
> 
> Every location that has beat this back has engaged in large scale social isolation.  Right now I'm staring at stats out of Italy to find out if their relatively modest restrictions are enough to make the growth curve go sub-exponential (the last 2 days looked good -- 2400, 2600 new cases -- if they keep it up over the weekend, I'm really excited).
> 
> No, I'm a literate person with whose mathematical literacy in the top fraction of a percent who has read a lot of epidemiological stuff over the past 2 months because I've been concerned about this issue.  (Note: Being good at math is mostly useless in life, but it helps when understanding exponential curves.)
> 
> Yes, we should social distance and reduce transmission.  "Flatten the curve" *as a solution* is what I'm talking about. The idea we just let it saturate the population and we just make it happen slower doesn't work (well, I'm not willing to give up yet), and if our solution is "flatten the curve" that is all it provides.
> 
> How about SK?  How about Italy?
> 
> The *get to naughty word work*.
> 
> You go to war with the troops you have, not the ones you want.  This is a war, and something like 300 million people around the world, and 15 million US citizens, lives are at stake, plus many more crippled for life.
> 
> Yes, your federal executive is a fuckup.  Go talk to your *state government* and get them to *hire the pandemic experts they fired* and *get your state on it*.  Start with what you can do (social distancing, limiting travel).  Raise naughty word taxes or borrow money to start funding your *own labs* to do testing.
> 
> Get *your state* on a war footing now, don't want for Trump and gang to get a brain.  "Flatten the curve" will *buy time*, and your federal government executive response is busy shaking people's hands after being exposed to it and arranging huge conferences to spread this thing.
> 
> And if your state is also brain dead?  Talk to your *city*.  If that is brain dead?  Talk to your *neighbors*, your *church*.  Failing all of that, organize your god-damn *gaming group*.
> 
> Find the *largest organization* you can direct to attack this mofoing plague.
> 
> Have absolutely nobody?  Call up elderly neighbors and see about delivering them food and supplies.
> 
> "Flatten the curve" is not going to solve this.  The US president is not going to solve this.
> 
> But you can help.  Very locally, you can help the vulnerable stay safe (deliver food and stuff so they don't have to expose themselves), which isn't much, but is something.  Going up from there it gets more abstract and less direct, but a modern US city isn't a helpless creature who has to wait for Trump to stop pretending this is a Hoax.
> 
> As noted, language, watch it please.



Here’s the deal, though: flattening the curve and similar public health measures may remain the best option we have for the foreseeable future.  Wanting effective antivirals, cures, and vaccines and throwing lots of money at brilliant researchers may not reap results for years.  

For decades.  

Generations.  

Covid-19 might turn into the common cold’s nastier ubiquitous cousin.  Worse, one of its inevitable mutations could prove more deadly.


----------



## NotAYakk

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Here’s the deal, though: flattening the curve and similar public health measures may remain the best option we have for the foreseeable future.  Wanting effective antivirals, cures, and vaccines and throwing lots of money at brilliant researchers may not reap results for years.
> 
> For decades.
> 
> Generations.
> 
> Covid-19 might turn into the common cold’s nastier ubiquitous cousin.  Worse, one of its inevitable mutations could prove more deadly.



That is the path to having 5% of the world and country population killed by this.  I label this "losing".  Losing is always an option.

There are alternatives.  We can have no travel, no group gatherings, no working in offices, no in-person schools for 10+ years.  Then we keep deaths down to 1%.  This sucks, but better than losing.

We can try to beat it through known, proven methods.  Namely, what Wuhan did, and what SK/

We can pray that a miracle occurs.

Here we go, someone did a good log-scale infection plot.  Two days old, so obsolete (!), but still a solid visualization:

Austria, Greece, Iran, Norway, UK, Sweden, Belgium, France, Spain are a week, give or take, away from disaster.

Italy, SK are over the disaster line.

SK has flattened the curve, and has hope to turn it around.  Their religious cult that caught it gave them a serious setback.

China, HK, Japan seem to have it beat; a flat curve like that looks like increased diagnosis more than an exponential bug.

USA, Canada are about 2 weeks away from the disaster line where Italy shut down 1/3 of the country.

Some of the above have begun to socially isolate on a regional or national scale.  Shutting down schools, banning large gatherings, etc.


----------



## MoonSong

NotAYakk said:


> China ...seem to have it beat; a flat curve like that looks like increased diagnosis more than an exponential bug.



I fear that that's what they want us to think.


----------



## Fenris-77

@NotAYakk - You rail against flattening the curve a couple of posts ago, and then finish with some very flatten the curve type advice. I'm confused about what the message is supposed to be. For me, _make reasonably safe decisions and help whomever you can_ sounds like the place to start. We can all help at whatever level we have access. Some people can help get organized at a higher level, for sure. Not everyone is that person by nature or position however, but the little things, local things, neighborhood things - those things matter a lot too.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Covid-19 might turn into the common cold’s nastier ubiquitous cousin.  Worse, one of its inevitable mutations could prove more deadly.




Yep, and as soon as there is a vaccine or pill or something that at least keeps people from dying, everyone will forget about what is going on right now and set us up for the next pandemic to do the same thing.


----------



## NotAYakk

Fenris-77 said:


> @NotAYakk - You rail against flattening the curve a couple of posts ago, and then finish with some very flatten the curve type advice. I'm confused about what the message is supposed to be. For me, _make reasonably safe decisions and help whomever you can_ sounds like the place to start. We can all help at whatever level we have access. Some people can help get organized at a higher level, for sure. Not everyone is that person by nature or position however, but the little things, local things, neighborhood things - those things matter a lot too.



Um, I said, and I bold:


> *So, "flatten the curve" is a good way to get people to start with the right thing.*
> 
> The thing is, it won't work, if your goal is to get herd immunity (30-70% infected and recovered).  If you kept the infection rate below what the US health care system can handle, we are talking about an epidemic spread out over 10 years.



" a few posts ago ".

I am saying that it is a good way to convince people to do what needs doing.  It is a lie, in that it pretends that it is a solution (with the graph going to zero).  It isn't.

With a disease 100x less nasty it would be a solution.  For this, it buys time.

It is buying time for a better solution.

(But this is why I don't have a career in communications.  I can start a post with what I want to say, say it 3 times, and people still get the opposite message!)


----------



## Asensur

Anyone knows good modules for 1 PC? Isolated in Madrid


----------



## Celebrim

Asensur said:


> Anyone knows good modules for 1 PC? Isolated in Madrid




Now is the time for making use of modern communication devices.   Find a game online.  

God bless you and yours in Spain.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

@NotAYakk 


> There are alternatives. We can have no travel, no group gatherings, no working in offices, no in-person schools for 10+ years. Then we keep deaths down to 1%. This sucks, but better than losing.




Those would be public health measures, as I mentioned.

Sometimes, life only gives you bad options, and you have to choose which is the least sucky.  It doesn’t matter what the predictive stats tell us if science is unable to provide a better path.


----------



## NotAYakk

Dannyalcatraz said:


> @NotAYakk
> Those would be public health measures, as I mentioned.
> 
> Sometimes, life only gives you bad options, and you have to choose which is the least sucky.  It doesn’t matter what the predictive stats tell us if science is unable to provide a better path.



Science does provides a better path.  Wuhan has to all appearances defeated the Covid-19 bug.  Even outside of Wuhan, where it was less epidemic, the cases are being choked off.  We can detect it, and it is slow enough to spread that even an active epidemic can be choked off.

There is what appears to be a path forward that isn't 10 years in house arrest.

The predictive stats say what happens if we choose other paths.  We go with 10 years+ house arrest where 1% of the world dies to this, we go with 5%+ mortality of everyone, or we pick a costly, annoying, hard path and beat it.

Do you vote for 10+ years of house arrest, 2 million dead in USA, and 200 million dead worldwide?  Do you vote for 350 million dead worldwide and no more house arrest anywhere?  Or do you vote for *doing something difficult*?

Or do you vote for "I hope we get lucky with medical science"?

Knowing what the alternatives are, it makes paying the price easier.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> Science does provides a better path.  Wuhan has to all appearances defeated the Covid-19 bug.  Even outside of Wuhan, where it was less epidemic, the cases are being choked off.  We can detect it, and it is slow enough to spread that even an active epidemic can be choked off.
> 
> There is what appears to be a path forward that isn't 10 years in house arrest.
> 
> The predictive stats say what happens if we choose other paths.  We go with 10 years+ house arrest where 1% of the world dies to this, we go with 5%+ mortality of everyone, or we pick a costly, annoying, hard path and beat it.
> 
> Do you vote for 10+ years of house arrest, 2 million dead in USA, and 200 million dead worldwide?  Do you vote for 350 million dead worldwide and no more house arrest anywhere?  Or do you vote for *doing something difficult*?
> 
> Or do you vote for "I hope we get lucky with medical science"?
> 
> Knowing what the alternatives are, it makes paying the price easier.




 Might not want to believe Chinese sources. They might have another flare up there and the CCP won't mind trading a few citizens for business as usual 

 Their media basically blaming others and making their supreme leader look great.


----------



## R_J_K75

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sometimes, life only gives you bad options, and you have to choose which is the least sucky. It doesn’t matter what the predictive stats tell us if science is unable to provide a better path.



I second this!! You gotta roll with the punches sometimes and play the hand your dealt.


----------



## Zardnaar

R_J_K75 said:


> I second this!! You gotta roll with the punches sometimes and play the hand your dealt.




Sometimes life is a poo sandwich and every day is lunchtime.


----------



## The Green Hermit

That's a cheery thought.


----------



## R_J_K75

Zardnaar said:


> Sometimes life is a poo sandwich and every day is lunchtime.




Guess Im not eating that day.


----------



## R_J_K75

The Green Hermit said:


> That's a cheery thought.




I get it and understand 100% what hes getting at.


----------



## Zardnaar

The Green Hermit said:


> That's a cheery thought.




 Main point is sometimes you can't avoid it. 

 We also live in times where people haven't really endured hardship at least not really. Someone saying no or internet goes down for 24 hours doesn't really count. 

 If you had to live on the streets, go hungary for a week or had certain medical emergencies you might have an idea.


----------



## R_J_K75

Zardnaar said:


> Someone saying no or internet goes down for 24 hours doesn't really count.



Exactly.  Life isn't a participation trophy.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Zardnaar said:


> Main point is sometimes you can't avoid it.
> 
> We also live in times where people haven't really endured hardship at least not really. Someone saying no or internet goes down for 24 hours doesn't really count.
> 
> If you had to live on the streets, go hungary for a week or had certain medical emergencies you might have an idea.




I spent the first 15 years of my life without running water or electricity. Patronize somebody else.


----------



## robus

Slightly off-topic, but I think the world is going to be really passed-off at China if their wet markets lead to another outbreak of this magnitude. This really cannot turn into an every few years thing.


----------



## The Green Hermit

robus said:


> Slightly off-topic, but I think the world is going to be really passed-off at China if their wet markets lead to another outbreak of this magnitude. This really cannot turn into an every few years thing.




Agreed. It is also a wake up call that more of our goods need to be manufactured at home. I am not against all aspects of the global economy, but a pandemic in one country should not create a crisis in another.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> No.  But we are living in the Dunning-Kruger Chainsaw Massacre.
> 
> There is a common misconception of the logical fallacy of the appeal to authority.  You are correct if you say that the fact that an authority said it, doesn't make it true, in and of itself.  It is an argument on trusting a personality, rather than an effort.




Then I am correct.



> The appeal to authority says that a person who is an expert cannot rest on their laurels - they have to actually do the work, show the logic. "Because I am an expert and I say so," does not cut it.  "Trust me, I'm a doctor," has no standing.  The fact that an expert in the field has been furiously working with real-world data, however, still means a great deal, and has much standing.
> 
> Two things that the appeal to authority _doesn't_ say:  1) An expert is likely to be wrong, and 2) A non-expert is likely to be correct, or has the understanding to properly critique an expert.




Sure.  "Show your work" - which the expert paper in question didn't.



> If you are not an expert, your say so doesn't mean anything either.  Your "feeling" that they are missing things is worthless.  Can you show your logic and do the work?  If so, you should do so.  If not, your input on whether they're correct is of no value.
> 
> That's a little blunt, and I'm sorry for that.  But it is true.




Or you could have just asked me what I thought he was missing and make a decision based on that instead of wording things in a way to cause someone to take offense....  I guess that issue happens to the best of us.


----------



## FrogReaver

NotAYakk said:


> Yes, but to flatten it enough to keep it under US healthcare capacity, you need to stretch the epidemic over 10 years.




Untrue.  You are one super sensationalist.


----------



## MarkB

I normally go to a gaming club of around 20-30 people on Friday nights, and run a game on alternate Saturdays. Yesterday, I decided to stop attending both of these until after the virus is in decline in the UK.

This does unfortunately leave some of the club members in the lurch next month, as I was to be DMing a game from the start of April, but there's already talk of suspending the club next session in any case.

As for my Saturday game, after getting things organised at very short notice, I've just finished our game session over Discord, and it all went suprisingly well. I actually had an easier time running combat DMing with a PC in front of me and multiple D&D Beyond windows open than I would have done flipping through books at our usual table, and while we missed the face-to-face aspect we could all hear each other well enough and our game proceeded with the usual mix of fun and banter. By next session I'll have some visual aids such as VTT software set up, and we'll be able to carry on very nearly as normal.


----------



## briggart

NotAYakk said:


> Every location that has beat this back has engaged in large scale social isolation.  Right now I'm staring at stats out of Italy to find out if their relatively modest restrictions are enough to make the growth curve go sub-exponential (the last 2 days looked good -- 2400, 2600 new cases -- if they keep it up over the weekend, I'm really excited).



We had 2795 new cases and 175 dead today. So it seems that slowing trend of the last few days is continuing, but we are still a hair's breadth from the edge.


----------



## seebs

NotAYakk said:


> Um, I said, and I bold:
> 
> " a few posts ago ".
> 
> I am saying that it is a good way to convince people to do what needs doing.  It is a lie, in that it pretends that it is a solution (with the graph going to zero).  It isn't.




It isn't in and of itself. The curve is quite likely to eventually get fairly close to zero. It might take a long time. But flattening the curve _reduces the total harm during the time the disease is active_. Again, look at the charts of St. Louis and Philadelphia during the 1918 flu. Flattening the curve meant that _half as many people died_.

And the graph eventually went to zero, even though we didn't have _any_ of the tools then that we do now.

Slowing it down gives us time to develop a supply of people with immunity, it gives us time to work on antibodies and vaccines (some researchers claim to have isolated antibodies for it, already!), and also reduces the number of people who get killed. Sure, it'll still be bad, but it'll be way _less_ bad, and it's also the only thing most people can do anything about personally.


----------



## R_J_K75

FrogReaver said:


> Then I am correct.



Does it really matter? At this point all that matters is WrestleMania is still on!!


----------



## R_J_K75

that was a joke


----------



## seebs

NotAYakk said:


> Yes it does.  But it isn't *a solution*.




No one said it was. But it's _the thing we can actually do_, those of us who aren't researchers or epidemiologists or whatever.



> We aren't going to do this for 10 years.  If our plan is to actually develop herd immunity and get 30%-70% infected, and we do it over 10 years, we stay under capacity.  If we do it in 5 years, we blow past capacity, and death rates hit 3%-5% instead of 4%-10%.  If we do over 1 year, death rates become basically the same as if we never did it.




I think you're underestimating the degree to which social distancing is non-boolean. You can wash your hands more often for ten years, no big deal, and even that _helps_ reduce the death rate.



> We have 1 solution that works.




I think we may be talking past each other.

Yes, general quarantine and lockdown practices are, in fact, a good solution... But the reason that SK's handling is working is, in part, massively different starting assumptions and environment. That works great if you can start it right away, but once you've missed the window for it, you've missed it, and we missed it, here in the US. So we _do_ have a pandemic. We are not making the pandemic go away short of vaccines or herd immunity. It's too widespread.



> Yes, we should social distance and reduce transmission.  "Flatten the curve" *as a solution* is what I'm talking about. The idea we just let it saturate the population and we just make it happen slower doesn't work (well, I'm not willing to give up yet), and if our solution is "flatten the curve" that is all it provides.




No one is suggesting it as a _solution_, they're suggesting it as a _course of action that is available to everyone_.

Researchers are still gonna work on vaccines and things. All I can usefully do is minimize social contact myself, quarantine if there's anything suggesting I might have the thing, and advocate for those courses of action for other people.


----------



## NotAYakk

briggart said:


> We had 2795 new cases and 175 dead today. So it seems that slowing trend of the last few days is continuing, but we are still a hair's breadth from the edge.



Oh thank god.  The rate of new cases going up is going down.  I mean, the second derivative isn't positive, which is good.

Still awful.  It is great news for the parts of the world that hit the panic button a bit earlier, it gives hope that they won't suffer what you have.

I am so very sorry for what is happening in Northern Italy.  <3  Stay strong.




FrogReaver said:


> Untrue.  You are one super sensationalist.



I mean, if you are going to disagree with someone's considered and backed opinion, you could actually say more than "no you are wrong".  But I guess that is work.

Anyhow, if you want to see math on why a "lower the curve" that ends with 30%-70% of the US population having been infected and recovered, and hence immune, needing to take about 10 years:

About ~5% of cases need respirator care.  The USA has 30,000 respirators that aren't used to save people's lives every second.  30,000/5% is 600,000 -- if you have more than 600,000 active cases at once, you run out of respirators.  People need those respirators up to 6 weeks -- we'll be generous and say 3 weeks.  So no more than 20,000 people per day can get sick with this, or you run out of respirators.  The population of the USA is 300,000,000.  Divide 300,000,000 by 20,000 and you get 15000 days.  Or, in other words, 41.1 years.

10 years is an order of magnitude estimate.  It seems reasonable.  I mean, we can assume 30% infection instead of 100%, and that there are 30% more respirators.  That gets it down to 10 years to "flatten the curve" below health care capacity.

And again, you can choose not to have enough respirators.  It is pretty clear that people who "need" them and don't get them mostly just die.  So you go from ~1% to 5%+ fatality rate, as demonstrated by every region that has overloaded their health care system's death rates.

Now you could* build more respirators*.  If you had about 1 million respirators (15x as many as the entire USA has right now), you could afford to have 20 million every 3 weeks, or about 1 million new sick people per day.  Then if you spread the infection over 1 year.  So that is another solution.  Delay the epidemic, start mass producing respirators.  To clear the epidemic in 2 years, worldwide, you need 7 billion / 365 days * 21 days / 20, or about 21 million respirators.

Oh, and you also need doctors who are experts in using them, or at least technicians trained in it.  So maybe more than a year, people don't learn that fast.  And you have a ramp up time as you mass produce them.

It does look like a good plan.  I hope someone is mass producing them.  Maybe Germany or China is.


----------



## FrogReaver

Interesting article on why the higher morality rates are probably wrong. 









						The WHO Estimated COVID-19 Mortality at 3.4%. That Doesn't Tell the Whole Story
					

Why the real number may be much lower




					time.com


----------



## NotAYakk

seebs said:


> I think we may be talking past each other.
> 
> Yes, general quarantine and lockdown practices are, in fact, a good solution... But the reason that SK's handling is working is, in part, massively different starting assumptions and environment. That works great if you can start it right away, but once you've missed the window for it, you've missed it, and we missed it, here in the US.



SK has more cases per capita *right now* than the USA has.  By a large factor.

Their epidemic is worse, it is more widespread.

They are still clamping down on it and reducing its growth rate.

You can give up and let millions die, or you can do something challenging.  It isn't too late for the USA to stop it.

You just need to get R0 as close to 1.0 as you can, ideally under 1.0, and then start aggressive testing and contact tracking to make it even lower.  Get R0 down to 0.5 and exponential growth *works for you*.

This isn't Polio or Measles with an R0 close to 10; it has an R0 of 2.something.  It can be beaten without a vaccine.  I can provide quotes by epidemiologists if you want, but they basically say "this can be beaten without a vaccine".

It doesn't appear to be very infections pre-symptoms.  So if you keep social distancing going *and* start testing *everyone with a flu*, and get people to *self isolate at the first flu symptom*, you can get R0 well below 1.

At R0 of 0.5, a 20,000 person per day epidemic (way worse than the USA has right now, at the limit of your health care system: basically, where Italy is right now) dies in 14 reproduction cycles (around 6 days) -- 12ish weeks.

Then you just have to start defending against reintroduction.

This isn't "flattening the curve".  "Flattening the curve" is accepting that everyone will get sick, and trying to get them to get sick slower to reduce mortality.  This is using social distancing to buy time to eliminate the epidemic via tracking and containment.


----------



## Zardnaar

Only 6 cases here. No deaths. Wondering what it means.

1. We've dodged the worst of it.  Good food, health system, low population density.

2.  It's at the start here and there's worse to come

3. We have a lot of undiagnosed cases.

 Panic buying is nothing serious, toilet paper is still on the shelf. Hand sanitizer sold out.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Zardnaar said:


> Only 6 cases here. No deaths. Wondering what it means.
> 
> 1. We've dodged the worst of it.  Good food, health system, low population density.
> 
> 2.  It's at the start here and there's worse to come
> 
> 3. We have a lot of undiagnosed cases.
> 
> Panic buying is nothing serious, toilet paper is still on the shelf. Hand sanitizer sold out.




Whether it ends up being 1 or 2, my guess is that it is definitely 3.


----------



## Zardnaar

The Green Hermit said:


> Whether it ends up being 1 or 2, my guess is that it is definitely 3.




 We're a tourist country. Going with 3 as well but they closed the border to China Feb 2. 

 Means it might be 2. In 2-3 weeks USA will be Italy, we'll be where USA is. 

 We don't really do apartment living here though so might slow things down. There's none locally and there's no drastic upsurge in flu symptoms.

Backyard next door. Italian street scene doesn't really exist here.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Then you just have to start defending against reintroduction.




This winds up being.. an interesting problem.  If you just say, "Okay everyone, back to normal!" the risk of reseeding the epidemic is high - especially when having had the disease does not seem to give you much immunity.  There's a question of which behaviors do you reintroduce first to get your economic movement rolling, without starting the thing all over again.



> This isn't "flattening the curve".  "Flattening the curve" is accepting that everyone will get sick, and trying to get them to get sick slower to reduce mortality.  This is using social distancing to buy time to eliminate the epidemic via tracking and containment.




Thankfully, the basic actions individuals take for both are pretty much the same.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

robus said:


> Slightly off-topic, but I think the world is going to be really passed-off at China if their wet markets lead to another outbreak of this magnitude. This really cannot turn into an every few years thing.




I doubt they will change their market setup, especially considering there are now stories coming out of China of government officials blaming the US military of planting the virus in Wuhan.

And there are also the stories/conspiracy theories that this whole thing was engineered by the Chinese government to crash the world economy and give them their advantage back. After all, history shows that Communist governments have no qualms about sacrificing their own people to gain more power.

Oh, and on another ironic note, it has been reported that Mexico is thinking about closing it's border with the US to try and keep the virus out.  lol


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> Only 6 cases here. No deaths. Wondering what it means.
> 
> 1. We've dodged the worst of it.  Good food, health system, low population density.
> 
> 2.  It's at the start here and there's worse to come
> 
> 3. We have a lot of undiagnosed cases.
> 
> Panic buying is nothing serious, toilet paper is still on the shelf. Hand sanitizer sold out.



Any community transmission?

Are they "person came from cruise ship that was infected, arrived in isoluation", or are they "person came from overseas, monitored self for symptoms"?

6 community transmission caught when they went to hospital because they needed oxygen, means approx ~150 actual.  6 that where brought over in isolation from a cruise ship means maybe ~6 actual.  Arrived on flights from areas with an epidemic, self isolated, got flu symptoms, got tested?  Somewhere in between.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> Any community transmission?
> 
> Are they "person came from cruise ship that was infected, arrived in isoluation", or are they "person came from overseas, monitored self for symptoms"?
> 
> 6 community transmission caught when they went to hospital because they needed oxygen, means approx ~150 actual.  6 that where brought over in isolation from a cruise ship means maybe ~6 actual.  Arrived on flights from areas with an epidemic, self isolated, got flu symptoms, got tested?  Somewhere in between.




 5 have been in self isolation, 6 came from USA and is in good health. Number 6 was tested Thursday, got results Friday. 

 University put returning Chinese students in isolation weeks ago. 

All cases were from overseas afaik.


----------



## Celebrim

FrogReaver said:


> Interesting article on why the higher morality rates are probably wrong.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The WHO Estimated COVID-19 Mortality at 3.4%. That Doesn't Tell the Whole Story
> 
> 
> Why the real number may be much lower
> 
> 
> 
> 
> time.com




Yes, well that article is wrong. There is a ton of reasons why, but one big clue is they don't understand the difference between mortality rate and transient case fatality ratio, and so they say really stupid things like:

"The mortality rate in South Korea, where more than 1,100 tests have been administered per million residents, comes out to just 0.6%, for example."

No, at the time they wrote that the mortality rate in South Korea - defined by the number of deaths divided by the number of closed cases (deaths + recoveries) stood at like 24%. The number they use there, the infamous "0.6%" quote represented the transient case fatality ratio. CFR is useful for determining whether you have found most of the cases that exist, but has nothing to do at all with how many people will die. The easiest way to realize that is to realize that if you have a CFR of like "0.6%" but you still have 7000 people who are sick, then actually "0.6%" represents the absolute floor possible of your mortality rate since it is based on the unspoken assumption that all 7000 people who are still sick will not die.

Not surprisingly, South Koreas transient CFR has been rising steadily all through the period were people were using the number to claim - without a shred of epidemiological training and no understanding what they were saying - that the overall mortality rate is low.

Let's get this settled on this thread once and for all.   The observed mortality rate globally is not 3.4% - right now it's 7.2%.   The 3.4% number builds into it an assumption that many mild cases don't get counted to the total.  Right now, to get to 3.4% you more or less have to assume about half the cases are so mild they don't get counted.  If _that assumption is wrong_, then it's highly possible Covid-19 is more deadly than is being reported.  3.4% is not a sensational number based on hype.   I'd calculated 3.6% 10 days before WHO came out with their estimate.   3.4% is a low ball let's not start a panic number.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NotAYakk said:


> Science does provides a better path.  Wuhan has to all appearances defeated the Covid-19 bug.  Even outside of Wuhan, where it was less epidemic, the cases are being choked off.  We can detect it, and it is slow enough to spread that even an active epidemic can be choked off.
> 
> There is what appears to be a path forward that isn't 10 years in house arrest.
> 
> The predictive stats say what happens if we choose other paths.  We go with 10 years+ house arrest where 1% of the world dies to this, we go with 5%+ mortality of everyone, or we pick a costly, annoying, hard path and beat it.
> 
> Do you vote for 10+ years of house arrest, 2 million dead in USA, and 200 million dead worldwide?  Do you vote for 350 million dead worldwide and no more house arrest anywhere?  Or do you vote for *doing something difficult*?
> 
> Or do you vote for "I hope we get lucky with medical science"?
> 
> Knowing what the alternatives are, it makes paying the price easier.



That’s *still* just public health measures.

Chinese science still has not produced a vaccine, cure, or treatment.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That’s *still* just public health measures.
> 
> Chinese science still has not produced a vaccine, cure, or treatment.




 Go to YouTube and type in China wetmarket. 

Our health inspectors would have kittens. In addition to things you expect such as hosing the floor down into a public street they put baskets of vegetables on the wet concrete.

 That's on top of the bats, frogs and whatever else gets slaughtered without basic hygiene standards. 

 Worked in a fish factory years ago and a farm. Completely differently. If a fish touched the ground it got binned. Everything gets washed down and sanitized between shifts.


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

slobster said:


> I quite enjoy abstract philosophical discussions, even ones which challenge basic assumptions that are usually taken as axiomatic. In the abstract, if a friend were to come up with me and ask "so why DO we value human life?", I'd be happy to engage in the navel-gazing. Especially after like, beer number 4.
> 
> If someone is lying bleeding in the street and someone looks over at me and asks, "hey, have you ever thought about how many problems overpopulation causes?" then quite simply I'm not going to have patience or sympathy for their self-indulgent BS. When lives and wellbeings are at stake, I feel no particular compulsion to humor that sort of solipsism.
> 
> So no, I'm not bothered by that poster's questioning of philosophical concepts. I am appalled at the concrete behaviors that they are espousing and apparently practicing, and their stated disregard for the risk that said actions run, and moreso for their stated rationalization of "if my actions cause harm to others it's their fault". I don't find that point of view worthy of debate, no, except to simply denounce it.



There's a time and a place for philosophy - this isn't it. This is a time to be part of the solution, otherwise you are part of the problem.


----------



## FrogReaver

Celebrim said:


> Let's get this settled on this thread once and for all.   The observed mortality rate globally is not 3.4% - right now it's 7.2%.   The 3.4% number builds into it an assumption that many mild cases don't get counted to the total.  Right now, to get to 3.4% you more or less have to assume about half the cases are so mild they don't get counted.  If _that assumption is wrong_, then it's highly possible Covid-19 is more deadly than is being reported.  3.4% is not a sensational number based on hype.   I'd calculated 3.6% 10 days before WHO came out with their estimate.   3.4% is a low ball let's not start a panic number.




I get it - it's building into the numbers an unknowable assumption - an assumption about the mortality rate of the virus from an unknown population of infected but not tested people.  The problem is they could be way overestimating or way underestimating that number in their calculation.  If this virus spreads as easy as it seems to then it's reasonable to conclude that way more than half the people with it don't know they have it, which tends to start significantly decreasing  that 3.4%.  Tell me where that's wrong?


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

R_J_K75 said:


> Guess Im not eating that day.



It's EVERY day. You'll get used to it.


----------



## Lem23

Dude, just stop eating at mcdonalds.


----------



## FrogReaver

Celebrim said:


> No, at the time they wrote that the mortality rate in South Korea - defined by the number of deaths divided by the number of closed cases (deaths + recoveries) stood at like 24%. The number they use there, the infamous "0.6%" quote represented the transient case fatality ratio. CFR is useful for determining whether you have found most of the cases that exist, but has nothing to do at all with how many people will die. The easiest way to realize that is to realize that if you have a CFR of like "0.6%" but you still have 7000 people who are sick, then actually "0.6%" represents the absolute floor possible of your mortality rate since it is based on the unspoken assumption that all 7000 people who are still sick will not die.




It's not even a floor because we don't know how many people with the virus aren't in this ratio.  If 5 times the people have it than are confirmed as having it (presumably most of those cases would be milder) then you have a much lower mortality rate.


----------



## Celebrim

FrogReaver said:


> Tell me where that's wrong?




The South Korea data set combined with other evidence like the doubling rate being between 6 and 7 days.

What SK's low CFR actually proved was that they had found a very high percentage of the cases that were 'in the wild'. The chart in that article showing that the more testing you did the lower your CFR was almost a tautology. It proved something, but not what the people who created the chart understood it to prove. It proved only the obvious, that initial CFR will be lower the higher percentage of the cases you have documented.

Think about the reverse situation. If you don't test widely, then the first cases that you'll notice are almost always anomalous deaths and severe cases requiring hospitalization. So without extensive testing, you'll almost certainly initially only document the worst cases, giving you a very high documented CFR simply because that's all you know about.

And SK's low CFR combined with the high percentage of tests that they do that come back negative in SK proves that there are not a lot of carriers with mild cases. (Now there is some weirdness here with asymptomatic cases that could complicate this discussion, but lets for now ignore all that because it just ends up with a bunch of question marks around things we don't understand yet.)

The other piece of information is the observed doubling number seems to be under uncontrolled conditions 6-7 days. If you see faster doubling than that,then it means your documentation is catching up to reality. If you see slower doubling, then it means you have some sort of quarantine that is slowing the rate of spread. However this very tightly constrains how many cases can exist after a certain period of time. Exponential series are very sensitive to the base number being raised to a power - in this case time.   Change base number even slightly and you get massive differences in results.

The high R0 low mortality rate model you are describing was a popular model a lot of people believed in or hoped for early in the epidemic, but the things that have happened since make that model very unlikely. If the R0 was that high, we should be seeing even faster spread than we do. We should be finding all those mild cases.   And we just aren't.


----------



## seebs

NotAYakk said:


> This isn't "flattening the curve".  "Flattening the curve" is accepting that everyone will get sick, and trying to get them to get sick slower to reduce mortality.  This is using social distancing to buy time to eliminate the epidemic via tracking and containment.




No, that's not what "flattening the curve" means.

Flattening the curve means slowing down the spread so that fewer people get sick _at any time ever_, not just so that it's spread out more. The point of the flatter curve isn't just that it's spread out more to even load on the health care system; it's that _fewer people get sick at all_.

If there exists a curve, at all, if _anyone_ gets sick and then eventually people stop getting sick, you're still in the territory covered by "flatten the curve".

Eliminating the epidemic, by whatever means, is the tail end of the curve, but there is _always_ a curve. The point is that it kills a lot fewer people if it's flat -- and part of that is because of load on the health care system, but part of that is because fewer people ever get it at all.

So, yes, social isolation, distancing, quarantining, all good things, and could conceivably keep it from hitting absolutely everyone, but there's no chance of having it completely contained from day one, especially not in the US, where we have over 50 distinct governments in charge of setting these policies and a lot of them are run by people who explicitly believe that all the claims that we should do something quickly are just excuses for attacking the President. So it's not gonna happen; we're not in a position to fully contain the thing. But we might be able to contain it _enough_ that it never really hits the majority of the population. If we get super lucky.

But it turns out that we're arguing for the exact same course of action, here, I'm just pointing out that part of the benefit of it is that it reduces deaths _no matter how successful it is_, and that I don't think we have the resources or social tools necessary to eradicate an epidemic that effectively.


----------



## Celebrim

FrogReaver said:


> It's not even a floor because we don't know how many people with the virus aren't in this ratio.  If 5 times the people have it than are confirmed as having it (presumably most of those cases would be milder) then you have a much lower mortality rate.




Right. But again, SK's extensive testing proves that can't be what is happening, however hopeful and reassuring it might be to believe that is what is happening. Likewise, the size of outbreaks can be predicted to within constraints that, while those constraints may seem large (often give or take an order of magnitude), nonetheless do constrain the base number greatly because very small changes in the base number yield massive changes in the outcome of exponential functions over time.

Underlying math here:


EDIT: One other thing I should have said is that the reverse of your argument is possible as well.  People who make the argument you are making here tend to assume rather unreasonably that we have accurately documented the deaths, but not accurately documented the cases.   And while that might seem reasonable, it's not really true except in cases when you are testing extensively.  In the US for example,  we almost certainly haven't documented all of our deaths.  Small numbers of unconnected deaths which aren't tested will just hide in the 'flu season' numbers.  There are in fact an anomalously large number of deaths in the US over the last few months which tested negative for influenza.  It's highly likely that these will eventually be connected to coronavirus, and indeed I know of at least one case where that actually happened and a death was 'back dated' after it was traced to a cluster and tested.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

The final line of that video pithily sums up how social attitude impacts an epidemic:


> "So if people are sufficiently worried, then there's a lot less to worry about. But if no one is worried, that's when you should worry."


----------



## Zardnaar

So is toilet paper really sold out in USA and Europe? Or is it localized?


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> Then I am correct.




Insofar as (at the time this was written) the folks we had been referring to had shown their reasoning, and you hadn't?  Not really.

And, yes, though you deny it, the experts have been showing their work, and putting forth their reasoning.  The papers are out there - I linked to one earlier i this thread, I believe.   I sat in on a web conference with a professor from Northeastern discussing the matters just on Friday.  

I am sorry they don't have time to sit down with you, personally.  These are very busy times for them, and they only have so much time to communicate with laymen.  If you're not going to go look for the information, yes it may look to you like there may be gaps, but if you aren't yourself an expert, then that very probably an issue of your understanding, not their work.


----------



## Fenris-77

Not being an expert epidemiologist isn't something I worry about a lot personally. I'm quite happy to have them tell me what they know. I'll fact check, but I know I'm not an expert. When that same dude wants to know to optimize a 40K tournament army, or teach English to a class of ESL 5th graders, then he can come talk to me.


----------



## Uller

Zardnaar said:


> So is toilet paper really sold out in USA and Europe? Or is it localized?




I live in Central Pennsylvania.  It is sold out here.


----------



## Fenris-77

Uller said:


> I live in Central Pennsylvania.  It is sold out here.



Just try to remember which is your poo hand, you'll be fine.


----------



## Zardnaar

Uller said:


> I live in Central Pennsylvania.  It is sold out here.




 I have friends in Houston and sold out.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> So is toilet paper really sold out in USA and Europe? Or is it localized?




My area was low as of Friday.  Though we had our first confirmed case mid week.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> Insofar as (at the time this was written) the folks we had been referring to had shown their reasoning, and you hadn't?  Not really.
> 
> And, yes, though you deny it, the experts have been showing their work, and putting forth their reasoning.  The papers are out there - I linked to one earlier i this thread, I believe.   I sat in on a web conference with a professor from Northeastern discussing the matters just on Friday.
> 
> I am sorry they don't have time to sit down with you, personally.  These are very busy times for them, and they only have so much time to communicate with laymen.  If you're not going to go look for the information, yes it may look to you like there may be gaps, but if you aren't yourself an expert, then that very probably an issue of your understanding, not their work.




They never addressed my objection - and as it stands when you stop trying to put people into anti-science camps you actually get dialog as @Celebrim gave above that does align with my point and brings up an additional one for consideration.


----------



## FrogReaver

Celebrim said:


> Right. But again, SK's extensive testing proves that can't be what is happening,




Elaborate here because I'm not following this part.  What about SK testing disproves that?




> however hopeful and reassuring it might be to believe that is what is happening. Likewise, the size of outbreaks can be predicted to within constraints that, while those constraints may seem large (often give or take an order of magnitude), nonetheless do constrain the base number greatly because very small changes in the base number yield massive changes in the outcome of exponential functions over time.
> 
> Underlying math here:




I understand math and how the variables will relate to each other.



> EDIT: One other thing I should have said is that the reverse of your argument is possible as well.  People who make the argument you are making here tend to assume rather unreasonably that we have accurately documented the deaths, but not accurately documented the cases.




I brought that up as a possibility as well.  I fully agree that there will be undocumented deaths from this - though fewer and fewer as testing ramps up.  We have not accounted for all deaths.  But I think it's reasonable to believe that the number of undocumented cases is far higher than the number of undocumented deaths.  Really sick people exhibiting the symptoms of the virus will be tested (or should be...)  So at this stage it's fairly unlikely you will die from it without being tested whereas it's quite a bit more likely that if you only display no to mild symptoms that you are not going to be tested anytime in the near future (at least in the U.S.)




> And while that might seem reasonable, it's not really true except in cases when you are testing extensively.  In the US for example,  we almost certainly haven't documented all of our deaths.  Small numbers of unconnected deaths which aren't tested will just hide in the 'flu season' numbers.  There are in fact an anomalously large number of deaths in the US over the last few months which tested negative for influenza.  It's highly likely that these will eventually be connected to coronavirus, and indeed I know of at least one case where that actually happened and a death was 'back dated' after it was traced to a cluster and tested.




Right but it's reasonable to believe at least at this point in time with current testing that what you are describing is orders of magnitudes lower than those with it and mild symptoms.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The TP shortage is almost purely at points of sale.  There’s plenty to be had in the supply chain, but people keep panic buying it.

Here in D/FW, our houseguest was someplace, gave the cashier the Masonic handshake & made the sign of Hastur, and was rewarded with being able to buy 6 rolls...of single-ply.

Tried it tonight.  Got a paper cut.


----------



## Celebrim

FrogReaver said:


> Elaborate here because I'm not following this part.  What about SK testing disproves that?




You had the hypothesis: "If 5 times the people have it than are confirmed as having it (presumably most of those cases would be milder) then you have a much lower mortality rate."

In other words, you are suggesting that far more than 80% of the cases are mild, and that in fact the outbreaks are 500% large than have been documented. This would suggest that perhaps 96% of the cases are mild, and we are catching only the 4% most severe and only like a 5th of the mild cases. And it's possible to believe that in say the USA where testing has been limited so far, but in cases like South Korea that pattern of the disease is in fact impossible. Because if the disease had that pattern, South Korea with its wide nets of testing would be detecting all of those mild cases. With an R0 that high and a disease spreading that widely, they'd get lower and lower numbers of negative tests. Most tests would be turning up positive. But that isn't being observed. Instead, as they casts their nets wider, they get fewer and fewer positives.

And again, in fact R0 was high enough that the disease was spreading everywhere sufficiently to see the real numbers of cases be 5 times that observed, then we'd see very different things than we see. The R0 is in fact fairly well constrained at this point. It might be 2.5, it might be 4, but it very unlikely to be wildly off that.

Similarly, so is the mortality rate assuming sufficient care is available. It might be 2%. It might be 3.6%. But it's very unlikely to be wildly off that.

Now, left untreated, we have very good reason so suspect that it's much higher than 3.4%. Those numbers assume that those requiring oxygen can receive it. If they can't, experience shows mortality rate shoots up over 5%. And of course, different demographics in a population will effect the observed rate as well.



> Right but it's reasonable to believe at least at this point in time with current testing that what you are describing is orders of magnitudes lower than those with it and mild symptoms.




Well in the sense that we would expect early on in an epidemic if you have spotty documentation for cases to be about 240 times more than deaths if in fact the R0 is around 3, and the mortality rate is around 3.4, and the disease takes 5-7 days to incubate, and then another 12-14 days to become lethal, then yes.

However, the R0 and mortality rate that we have are being increasingly tightly constrained.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> ... when you stop trying to put people into anti-science camps ...




Ah, if only you recognized what I was trying to do.  

I don't think you are anti-science.  I gather from your writings that you think folks who have been studying such things for decades and make their livelihoods modelling such events miss simple, basic elements of their own work that you don't.  

So, is that inaccurate?


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> Ah, if only you recognized what I was trying to do.
> 
> I don't think you are anti-science.  I gather from your writings that you think folks who have been studying such things for decades and make their livelihoods modelling such events miss simple, basic elements of their own work that you don't.
> 
> So, is that inaccurate?




I dunno.  You believe professionals never make an error that you would be able to spot .  Is that accurate?


----------



## Celebrim

Umbran said:


> Ah, if only you recognized what I was trying to do.
> 
> I don't think you are anti-science.  I gather from your writings that you think folks who have been studying such things for decades and make their livelihoods modelling such events miss simple, basic elements of their own work that you don't.
> 
> So, is that inaccurate?




I don't think it is inaccurate, but I'd also like to not be as harsh on frogreaver as all that.

The questions he's having and the models he's offering up are indeed models that some real professional epidemiologists did offer up as possibilities earlier in the pandemics spread. And many of those claims did filter into mainstream journalism through editorials, interviews with experts, social media and so forth. Unlike a lot of theories out there, these aren't views of reality based on wild conspiracy theories.

The high R0 low mortality rate model, or what you might call the optimistic model, was in fact very plausible and very much promoted by some experts back in January and early February. So it's entirely reasonable for a layman to latch on to it. In fact, in my experience with people, regardless of the level of their education, they tend to latch on to the first thing that is explained to them in a forceful and authoritative manner. They they go about defending that initial impression to the death (as it were). Indeed, even professionals who form these hypothesis act in very much the same manner, defending their model of reality even as new evidence appears.

And there is a huge mental cost to letting go of this particular mental model, even more so than the usual.


----------



## Mistwell

Big box stores are selling out of toilet paper. Meanwhile, every gas station has plenty on the shelves of their mini marts. Because people seem very focused on big box stores and buying bulk right now.


----------



## Celebrim

Mistwell said:


> Big box stores are selling out of toilet paper. Meanwhile, every gas station has plenty on the shelves of their mini marts. Because people seem very focused on big box stores and buying bulk right now.




I find the sociology of bulk toilet paper buying to be really fascinating.  I haven't seen any data on it, because really who has time to study that right now, but I've seen a lot of interesting theories.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mistwell said:


> Big box stores are selling out of toilet paper. Meanwhile, every gas station has plenty on the shelves of their mini marts. Because people seem very focused on big box stores and buying bulk right now.


----------



## Azzy

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The TP shortage is almost purely at points of sale.  There’s plenty to be had in the supply chain, but people keep panic buying it.




It's not panic buying, it's greed and the desire to instigate and profit from the fears of the pandemic.


----------



## FrogReaver

Celebrim said:


> You had the hypothesis: "If 5 times the people have it than are confirmed as having it (presumably most of those cases would be milder) then you have a much lower mortality rate."
> 
> In other words, you are suggesting that far more than 80% of the cases are mild, and that in fact the outbreaks are 500% large than have been documented. This would suggest that perhaps 96% of the cases are mild, and we are catching only the 4% most severe and only like a 5th of the mild cases. And it's possible to believe that in say the USA where testing has been limited so far,




I'm with this so far.



> but in cases like South Korea that pattern of the disease is in fact impossible. Because if the disease had that pattern, South Korea with its wide nets of testing would be detecting all of those mild cases.




So just read an article to find out how many they have tested compared to how many have been confirmed.

South Korea's rapid coronavirus testing, far ahead of the US, could be saving lives

It's an amazing response overall in South Korea!

But more on topic the article says they've tested 240,000 and found 8000 with it.  They have had 800+ recoveries and less than 80 deaths.  That's less than a 1% mortality rate (unless I'm calculating that incorrectly).  If their hospitals get overloaded that number could start to drastically rise.



> With an R0 that high and a disease spreading that widely, they'd get lower and lower numbers of negative tests. Most tests would be turning up positive. But that isn't being observed. Instead, as they casts their nets wider, they get fewer and fewer positives.




That's fair but from what I read it's suspected that even with their testing that they have about twice as many people with it than they have confirmed.



> And again, in fact R0 was high enough that the disease was spreading everywhere sufficiently to see the real numbers of cases be 5 times that observed, then we'd see very different things than we see. The R0 is in fact fairly well constrained at this point. It might be 2.5, it might be 4, but it very unlikely to be wildly off that.




Or South Korea had it for a week or 2 before the first few cases were confirmed - which throws that timeline off a bit and thus the rate of infection values off as well - right?



> Similarly, so is the mortality rate assuming sufficient care is available. It might be 2%. It might be 3.6%. But it's very unlikely to be wildly off that.




In South Korea it's looking like less than 1% at least for now?



> Now, left untreated, we have very good reason so suspect that it's much higher than 3.4%. Those numbers assume that those requiring oxygen can receive it. If they can't, experience shows mortality rate shoots up over 5%. And of course, different demographics in a population will effect the observed rate as well.




Based on the South Korea model I'm not seeing how we get to 3.4%.  

Now if hospitals get flooded and can't keep up I have no idea how high it could go.  5% might not be unreasonable in that scenario.



> Well in the sense that we would expect early on in an epidemic if you have spotty documentation for cases to be about 240 times more than deaths if in fact the R0 is around 3, and the mortality rate is around 3.4, and the disease takes 5-7 days to incubate, and then another 12-14 days to become lethal, then yes.
> 
> However, the R0 and mortality rate that we have are being increasingly tightly constrained.




Seems to depend a lot on early social distancing especially of the most at risk populations.


----------



## FrogReaver

Celebrim said:


> I don't think it is inaccurate, but I'd also like to not be as harsh on frogreaver as all that.
> 
> The questions he's having and the models he's offering up are indeed models that some real professional epidemiologists did offer up as possibilities earlier in the pandemics spread. And many of those claims did filter into mainstream journalism through editorials, interviews with experts, social media and so forth. Unlike a lot of theories out there, these aren't views of reality based on wild conspiracy theories.




Thank you.

I wanted to add though - I can't swear I wasn't influenced by some other expert on this.  If I was I don't recall.  These are questions and concerns I came up with on my own after reading the articles in question.  It's nice to know they aligned with some initial theories though.  I very much appreciate you taking the time to answer these questions and concerns instead of just screaming at me that some authority said X and therefore since I'm not an authority I can't question it and have no hope of independently understanding it - as too many on this thread are doing.



> The high R0 low mortality rate model, or what you might call the optimistic model, was in fact very plausible and very much promoted by some experts back in January and early February. So it's entirely reasonable for a layman to latch on to it. In fact, in my experience with people, regardless of the level of their education, they tend to latch on to the first thing that is explained to them in a forceful and authoritative manner. They they go about defending that initial impression to the death (as it were). Indeed, even professionals who form these hypothesis act in very much the same manner, defending their model of reality even as new evidence appears.
> 
> And there is a huge mental cost to letting go of this particular mental model, even more so than the usual.




Yea that is a phenomenon.  I don't believe that's what happened to me in this case.  I'm still struggling to see how South Korea can have around 80 deaths to 800 confirmed cases and the projected mortality rate sit at 3.4%.  I can see how this implies it's not a high R0 and low mortality rate situation but what explains their low mortality rate numbers in comparison to the higher 3.4% estimate?

Or is what is being claimed is that it's at 3.4% if we do nothing (pre hospital overload)?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Azzy said:


> It's not panic buying, it's greed and the desire to instigate and profit from the fears of the pandemic.




He isn’t alone, but this behavior seems to be the exception, not the rule.  Most of the buying is people who are irrationally buying _something_ to feel like they’re taking some kind of real prep for the pandemic. 

The ones really profiteering off the panic are guys like Jim Bakker and Alex Jones.  Both are being investigated for peddling fake Covid-19 cures right now- Bakker is selling colloidal silver as a cure at 25x its regular price; Jones‘ product is anti-coronaviruses toothpaste. 

This, for example, is not how profiteers behave:








						Amid coronavirus panic-buying, 2 injured in fight in Sam's Club wine aisle
					

The dispute began when a man in a motorized shopping cart bumped into a couple's cart, which was carrying their child. It ended with two men wielding broken wine bottles.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Celebrim

FrogReaver said:


> I'm still struggling to see how South Korea can have around 80 deaths to 800 [sic] confirmed cases and the projected mortality rate sit at 3.4%.  I can see how this implies it's not a high R0 and low mortality rate situation but what explains their low mortality rate numbers in comparison to the higher 3.4% estimate?




So, let's look at today's numbers for South Korea.

They have 8162 cases, of which only 76 have died. That makes for a transient case fatality ratio of 0.9%. (Notice that it has climbed by 0.3% since the article you quoted. This is not unexpected, and I think you'll soon see why.)

So how do we know that it will converge (or in this case climb) to 3.4%?

Well, so far of the 8162 cases, 834 people have recovered and are free from the illness. That means that there are 834 + 76 closed cases, or 910 cases that are complete. Of those 910 cases that are complete, 8.3% have died. That 8.3% number is the current mortality rate in South Korea. Recall that I told you that at the time the CFR was 0.6% the mortality rate was actually a scary sounding 24%. But it's decline down to at present 8.3% is also not unexpected.

What is going on here?

Well, there are 7253 cases of people that have neither gotten well nor died. Some of those people will get better, and some of them will die. When all the cases are closed, we'll know the final mortality rate - predicted to be around 3.4%. The two numbers are converging toward some number between them, and the reason they have the particular pattern they do is that this disease takes longer to recover from on average than it does to kill you. It usually takes 20-40 days to recover. But it usually only takes 12-17 days to die. So deaths tend to be front loaded resulting in a high mortality rate in the early going (governed by a ratio of deaths to recoveries). But transient case fatality ratios tend to be very low if you are finding the cases quickly, because the deaths lag symptoms by such a long length of time.



> Or is what is being claimed is that it's at 3.4% if we do nothing (pre hospital overload)?




Oh no, it is MUCH worse if you do nothing.  The highest observed rates have been around 5.9% in Wuhan itself where the medical system all but collapsed and they were forced to provide only triage to the most ill patients.   In theory, if you could do nothing at all, the mortality rate could be much higher than that.   About 10% of patients get very very ill and have to be on oxygen for 2-4 weeks.  That's why the talk about ventilators is so important and everyone is talking about "flattening the curve".

(Now, all that said there are some weird data sets out there that seem to show you can get significantly below 3.4% mortality rate, though I don't think South Korea is necessarily one of them.  However, the two data sets that I know of that suggest that have some huge problems.)


----------



## FrogReaver

Celebrim said:


> So, let's look at today's numbers for South Korea.
> 
> They have 8162 cases, of which only 76 have died. That makes for a transient case fatality ratio of 0.9%. (Notice that it has climbed by 0.3% since the article you quoted. This is not unexpected, and I think you'll soon see why.)
> 
> So how do we know that it will converge (or in this case climb) to 3.4%?
> 
> Well, so far of the 8162 cases, 834 people have recovered and are free from the illness. That means that there are 834 + 76 closed cases, or 910 cases that are complete. Of those 910 cases that are complete, 8.3% have died. That 8.3% number is the current mortality rate in South Korea. Recall that I told you that at the time the CFR was 0.6% the mortality rate was actually a scary sounding 24%. But it's decline down to at present 8.3% is also not unexpected.
> 
> What is going on here?
> 
> Well, there are 7253 cases of people that have neither gotten well nor died. Some of those people will get better, and some of them will die. When all the cases are closed, we'll now the final mortality rate - predicted to be around 3.4%. The two numbers are converging toward some number between them, and the reason they have the particular pattern they do is that this disease takes longer to recover from on average than it does to kill you. It usually takes 20-40 days to recover. But it usually only takes 12-17 days to die. So deaths tend to be front loaded resulting in a high mortality rate (governed by a ratio of deaths to recoveries). But transient case fatality ratios tend to be very low if you are finding the cases quickly, because the deaths lag symptoms by such a long length of time.
> 
> 
> 
> Oh no, it is MUCH worse if you do nothing.  The highest observed rates have been around 5.9% in Wuhan itself where the medical system all but collapsed and they were forced to triage only the most ill patients.   In theory, if you could do nothing at all, the mortality rate could be much higher than that.   About 10% of patients get very very ill and have to be on oxygen for 2-4 weeks.  That's why the talk about ventilators is so important and everyone is talking about "flattening the curve".




So reading the first part of this response and I realized my mistake.  80 compared to 800 is 10% not 1%.  DOH!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This gets a whole lot of “Nope!“ from me:








						Beijing is promoting traditional medicine as a 'Chinese solution' to coronavirus. Not everyone is on board | CNN
					

Xiong Qingzhen, a drone engineer in the central Chinese metropolis of Wuhan, spent more than two weeks in a makeshift hospital in February receiving treatment for Covid-19, the respiratory disease causing a global health crisis.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Zardnaar

South Korea (and Taiwan) have good health systems. And a decent government response. 

China lolbad, USA participation trophy.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> South Korea (and Taiwan) have good health systems. And a decent government response.
> 
> China lolbad, USA participation trophy.




U.S. did pretty good with travel bans.  U.S. doing a crap job of testing.


----------



## FrogReaver

Celebrim said:


> So, let's look at today's numbers for South Korea.
> 
> They have 8162 cases, of which only 76 have died. That makes for a transient case fatality ratio of 0.9%. (Notice that it has climbed by 0.3% since the article you quoted. This is not unexpected, and I think you'll soon see why.)
> 
> So how do we know that it will converge (or in this case climb) to 3.4%?
> 
> Well, so far of the 8162 cases, 834 people have recovered and are free from the illness. That means that there are 834 + 76 closed cases, or 910 cases that are complete. Of those 910 cases that are complete, 8.3% have died. That 8.3% number is the current mortality rate in South Korea. Recall that I told you that at the time the CFR was 0.6% the mortality rate was actually a scary sounding 24%. But it's decline down to at present 8.3% is also not unexpected.
> 
> What is going on here?
> 
> Well, there are 7253 cases of people that have neither gotten well nor died. Some of those people will get better, and some of them will die. When all the cases are closed, we'll now the final mortality rate - predicted to be around 3.4%. The two numbers are converging toward some number between them, and the reason they have the particular pattern they do is that this disease takes longer to recover from on average than it does to kill you. It usually takes 20-40 days to recover. But it usually only takes 12-17 days to die. So deaths tend to be front loaded resulting in a high mortality rate (governed by a ratio of deaths to recoveries). But transient case fatality ratios tend to be very low if you are finding the cases quickly, because the deaths lag symptoms by such a long length of time.
> 
> 
> 
> Oh no, it is MUCH worse if you do nothing.  The highest observed rates have been around 5.9% in Wuhan itself where the medical system all but collapsed and they were forced to provide only triage to the most ill patients.   In theory, if you could do nothing at all, the mortality rate could be much higher than that.   About 10% of patients get very very ill and have to be on oxygen for 2-4 weeks.  That's why the talk about ventilators is so important and everyone is talking about "flattening the curve".
> 
> (Now, all that said there are some weird data sets out there that seem to show you can get significantly below 3.4% mortality rate, though I don't think South Korea is necessarily one of them.  However, the two data sets that I know of that suggest that have some huge problems.)




Very good explanation.  Thanks.


----------



## Celebrim

Zardnaar said:


> South Korea (and Taiwan) have good health systems. And a decent government response.




Right now almost everyone doing a good job of this is in Asia, in part because I think they've been through this before with SARS and actually absorbed the lessons of that.

Nations/territories doing a decent job:
Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Israel, Singapore, Bahrain, Qatar, New Zealand

Surprisingly, if you get past all the initial denial, corruption, and cover up (and granted, it's really hard to get over that), China has done a really good job once they started to take it seriously. It's been authoritarian and brutal, but its been effective and many nations have done much worse.

Hitherto I might give C's to Germany, Denmark, Poland, and Norway. Germany has numbers that look a lot like South Korea. Denmark and Norway had the bad luck to be in the Schengen zone, but seem to be recovering from that. They have proportionately some of the worst outbreaks in the world, so things could get really bad for them for a while but they seem to be containing now which is impressive because the list of countries that appear to be is very small. 

Pretty much the rest of Europe gets an F. That March 4th emergency meeting will go down in the history books as one of the worst civic reactions in the history of government. I had to pick myself off the floor when I read the outcome, and the more I thought about it the more I went from dumbstruck to angry. Well, enough of that. Not my country.

If you were holding a civil trial, China, Italy, and Iran would need to pay damages. Between the three of them, the rest of the world is screwed.

I was giving a D to USA up until about 5 days ago when we finally got serious about this.   Final grade to be evaluated when the SHTF some time in the next week or two.


----------



## Zardnaar

Celebrim said:


> Right now almost everyone doing a good job of this is in Asia, in part because I think they've been through this before with SARS and actually absorbed the lessons of that.
> 
> Nations/territories doing a decent job:
> Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Israel, Singapore, Bahrain, Qatar, New Zealand
> 
> Surprisingly, if you get past all the initial denial, corruption, and cover up (and granted, it's really hard to get over that), China has done a really good job once they started to take it seriously. It's been authoritarian and brutal, but its been effective and many nations have done much worse.
> 
> Hitherto I might give C's to Germany, Denmark, Poland, and Norway. Germany has numbers that look a lot like South Korea. Denmark and Norway had the bad luck to be in the Schengen zone, but seem to be recovering from that. They have proportionately some of the worst outbreaks in the world, so things could get really bad for them for a while but they seem to be containing now which is impressive because the list of countries that appear to be is very small.
> 
> Pretty much the rest of Europe gets an F. That March 4th emergency meeting will go down in the history books as one of the worst civic reactions in the history of government. I had to pick myself off the floor when I read the outcome, and the more I thought about it the more I went from dumbstruck to angry. Well, enough of that. Not my country.
> 
> If you were holding a civil trial, China, Italy, and Iran would need to pay damages. Between the three of them, the rest of the world is screwed.
> 
> I was giving a D to USA up until about 5 days ago when we finally got serious about this.   Final grade to be evaluated when the SHTF some time in the next week or two.




 Been wondering about that. 

 China you just cost the world several trillion dollars.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Some people are just..._better_.









						Cornershop giving away face-masks and antibacterial hand gel to elderly during coronavirus outbreak
					

Asiyah and Jawad Javed spent £2,000 on free supplies for vulnerable pensioners




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## GreyLord

Mistwell said:


> Big box stores are selling out of toilet paper. Meanwhile, every gas station has plenty on the shelves of their mini marts. Because people seem very focused on big box stores and buying bulk right now.



You can buy toilet paper at the Gas Stations???

I had no idea.

The estimates I've seen regarding the US seem to indicate that the US doesn't hit critical mass with hospital beds in the next two weeks, but the target estimate is the first week of May, give or take a week.

Certain areas may hit critical before that.

I don't know of the estimates regarding the UK, but the cases seem low thus far (or I am missing something) comparatively to other places...at least thus far.


----------



## Zardnaar

Emergency supplies. RPG stuff, novels, toilet paper.


----------



## GreyLord

Looks like FR, Dark Sun novels there, and if I'm not mistaken some Star Wars RPG books?  WEG?

I haven't gotten any more RPG play time this week past last Wednesday.  It could be a long haul for me.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> Looks like FR, Dark Sun novels there, and if I'm not mistaken some Star Wars RPG books?  WEG?
> 
> I haven't gotten any more RPG play time this week past last Wednesday.  It could be a long haul for me.



 You are good. WEG SW, Dragon, Dungeon and Darksun. 

Not exactly panic buying just every time we go to supermarket just get a bit extra.


----------



## seebs

FrogReaver said:


> U.S. did pretty good with travel bans.  U.S. doing a crap job of testing.




US did not do well at all with travel bans, because they're inconsistent, and being handled in a way basically calculated to maximize the spread of the virus in the US. Look at pictures of people stuck in wall-to-wall standing room only for multiple hours at various airports because they announced a ton of new restrictions requiring manual checking, and _didn't add enough staff_ to the federal-only process. So if even one or two of the people coming in _did_ have the virus, now a  heck of a lot more of them do, but will have gotten it right there so it won't show up in the superficial checking for symptoms being done on-site.

Sadly, all the people who knew better got laid off a while back because if you have people preventing pandemics, and you're a complete idiot, it's easy to think "well gosh we never have pandemics why do we need these people anyway".


----------



## atanakar

seebs said:


> Sadly, all the people who knew better got laid off a while back because if you have people preventing pandemics, and you're a complete idiot, it's easy to think "well gosh we never have pandemics why do we need these people anyway".




Yep. I read that article yesterday and couldn't believe he had done that. Then after a few seconds thinking about it, I was not surprised anymore. It's very tragic to watch this unfold.


----------



## seebs

I still don't know how much of it is intentional. I've seen at least one newspaper print a piece about how this could actually be good for the economy because it'll disproportionately kill old dependents. And there was that thing recently with someone somewhere in the DOJ issuing orders to take down signs about how to reduce the spread of the virus in a way that appears to be targeted at trying to maximize deaths among refugees. Classy!


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> So is toilet paper really sold out in USA and Europe? Or is it localized?



In my experience, it is sold out at discount/bulk places, and not sold out at places that charge more.


----------



## seebs

It's honestly just so mystifying how, if you have people working to prevent a thing from becoming a serious problem, and it's never a serious problem so you realize you don't need them, and you fire them all, somehow it's right after that that the problem becomes serious. What amazingly bad luck! If only there were some logical explanation for how "prevention" keeps things from happening.


----------



## Umbran

Azzy said:


> It's not panic buying, it's greed and the desire to instigate and profit from the fears of the pandemic.




Yes, that guy was trying to profiteer off the epidemic. But the majority of folks buying huge amounts of toilet paper are not trying to resell it.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> In my experience, it is sold out at discount/bulk places, and not sold out at places that charge more.




With respect, this is my normal retail supermarket yesterday:


Spoiler


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

I predict a lot of gifting of toilet paper at Christmas this year, after everyone realizes how much toilet paper they don't actually need.


----------



## Umbran

Celebrim said:


> The high R0 low mortality rate model, or what you might call the optimistic model, was in fact very plausible and very much promoted by some experts back in January and early February.




So, in a discussion on Friday, the speaker had a very interesting point that we may gain significant leverage on the disease not based directly on its R0, but on the second moment of R0, the _variance_ of R0.

So... consider two diseases: 

Generic influenza - while there's some differences in strains, broadly, it has an R0 of about 1.3.
Ebola - has an R0 of about 2.

Based on that alone, we'd expect ebola to be a highly prevalent disease.  However, it is influenza that just about everyone in the world gets.  Why?  Because R0 is an average, and we have to then consider the spread of values that make up that average. 

The R0 of influenza is about 1.3, and there's not a whole lot of variance in it - if three people get influenza, you can put good money on how they will together infect four more people.  Between its intrinsic properties and how we deal with it... influenza is relentless and almost like clockwork.

Ebola... is not.  There's a high variance in its R0.  A lot of folks who get ebola never pass it to anyone else.  And a small number of victims of the disease are responsible for "superspreader" events - passing it on to 20 more, instead of just 2.  So, on broad average R0 is small.

And, that's how you deal with ebola - you crack down on the superspreader events, and what is left is an R0 too small to sustain itself, and the outbreak dies out. 

So, when we look at the preliminary R0 for covid-19, we are looking at that average, and we have to wonder whether it is that, if one person has it they _reliably_ pass it to 2.5 more people, or if most folks with it don't pass it on at all, and that a few are responsible for large spreading events.


----------



## MarkB

Theo R Cwithin said:


> I predict a lot of gifting of toilet paper at Christmas this year, after everyone realizes how much toilet paper they don't actually need.



Well, it's not as though it goes off, or you're ever going to decide to stop using it. Eventually it will get used up.


----------



## Umbran

seebs said:


> I still don't know how much of it is intentional.




The basic issue around such conspiracy theories is simple - anyone smart enough to pull it off will know that a bioweapon is too difficult to control to be reliable.

I mean, it'll kill old dependents?  You realize that the upper levels of government is disproportionately populated with high-risk folks over 60?  Talk about shooting yourself in the foot!

So, let's not engage in the conspiracy theorizing, please.


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

Just heard this. Among other things, my UK government is proposing an emergency power (among others) to quarantine people who are considered a danger to public health. In other words, if you don't act responsibly, you will find yourself being forcibly quarantined. I should be shocked at that but, given the situation, I find myself applauding this.

Go for it, I can't wait to see the look on those irresponsible a*******s who say 'I want to carry on living my life as I want'. Try questioning the authority of government when that happens.


----------



## Celebrim

Theo R Cwithin said:


> I predict a lot of gifting of toilet paper at Christmas this year, after everyone realizes how much toilet paper they don't actually need.




People will use it eventually, and it's not like it goes bad.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Celebrim said:


> People will use it eventually, and it's not like it goes bad.



Awww. Now what do I do for Christmas presents? My nieces and nephews will be devastated.


----------



## Maxperson

seebs said:


> US did not do well at all with travel bans, because they're inconsistent, and being handled in a way basically calculated to maximize the spread of the virus in the US. Look at pictures of people stuck in wall-to-wall standing room only for multiple hours at various airports because they announced a ton of new restrictions requiring manual checking, and _didn't add enough staff_ to the federal-only process. So if even one or two of the people coming in _did_ have the virus, now a  heck of a lot more of them do, but will have gotten it right there so it won't show up in the superficial checking for symptoms being done on-site.




The travel bans are pretty much irrelevant I think.  The virus would have started and been completely unknown for a month or two at least before anyone even thought to check and see why more people than usual were dying in Wuhan.  That's at least two months of people getting it and traveling around the world infecting others, then it spreading locally.


----------



## Maxperson

atanakar said:


> Yep. I read that article yesterday and couldn't believe he had done that. Then after a few seconds thinking about it, I was not surprised anymore. It's very tragic to watch this unfold.



That's because surprise only lasts until your initiative comes up.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> With respect, this is my normal retail supermarket yesterday:
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 119936



Yep.  That's our store and various other stores in the Los Angeles area that my friends have been going to.  One of my D&D group texted yesterday that the Trader Joe's near him shut down for an hour so that they could restock a bit without masses of people being in the way.


----------



## Sacrosanct

I saw something the other day I wish would happen. That stores open for the first two hours for only those who are elderly and on assistance. All these panic buyers buying up all food, even WIC labeled food, and people on WIC can’t buy non WIC labeled food so they are screwed.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> The basic issue around such conspiracy theories is simple - anyone smart enough to pull it off will know that a bioweapon is too difficult to control to be reliable.
> 
> I mean, it'll kill old dependents?  You realize that the upper levels of government is disproportionately populated with high-risk folks over 60?  Talk about shooting yourself in the foot!



PLUS:

1) you can’t deploy it until you have some kind of treatment, vaccine or cure
2) it WILL mutate at some point, so you need to keep doing research on treatments, vaccines and cures
3) horizontal gene transfer from the weaponized microbe to other microbes might render other treatments, vaccines or cures less effective or even utterly useless 

Etc.

IOW, engineered plagues are, in some way, the most dangerous of all WMDs, not just to the enemy, but to the people who contemplate deploying them.  It’s not just a double edged sword, it’s a double edged sword wit a sword grip that can do Autofire with a hair trigger.


----------



## Zardnaar

Supermarkets don't put limits on what you can buy? 

 Here you can only buy 2 bottles of sanitizer. Not that it's on the shelf.

 Buy as much toilet paper as you want.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> PLUS:
> 
> 1) you can’t deploy it until you have some kind of treatment, vaccine or cure
> 2) it WILL mutate at some point, so you need to keep doing research on treatments, vaccines and cures
> 3) horizontal gene transfer from the weaponized microbe to other microbes might render other treatments, vaccines or cures less effective or even utterly useless
> 
> Etc.
> 
> IOW, engineered plagues are, in some way, the most dangerous of all WMDs, not just to the enemy, but to the people who contemplate deploying them.  It’s not just a double edged sword, it’s a double edged sword wit a sword grip that can do Autofire with a hair trigger.




 They also gave access to nastier stuff than this. 

 They have had accidents over the years though. Soviets had multiple accidental CBN oopsies. Chernobyls just the most famous.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

How TP is being sold in Australia at some places now:


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> How TP is being sold in Australia at some places now:




 Crazy. Wonder if they will do rationing eventually.


----------



## Dausuul

Dannyalcatraz said:


> How TP is being sold in Australia at some places now:



And the folks in that line are perfectly set up for one person with COVID-19 to cough and spread it to half a dozen people in one go.


----------



## robus

Theo R Cwithin said:


> The final line of that video pithily sums up how social attitude impacts an epidemic:



Given what I saw in Charleston, SC this morning not enough people are concerned yet. Brunch spots were packed.


----------



## seebs

Umbran said:


> The basic issue around such conspiracy theories is simple - anyone smart enough to pull it off will know that a bioweapon is too difficult to control to be reliable.
> 
> I mean, it'll kill old dependents?  You realize that the upper levels of government is disproportionately populated with high-risk folks over 60?  Talk about shooting yourself in the foot!
> 
> So, let's not engage in the conspiracy theorizing, please.




I'm not talking about the _virus_ being intentional. I'm talking about things like:


Wherein the Department of Justice orders signs warning people about the virus and advising on basic precautions to mitigate risk taken down. Why? Well, that is an open question.

But they didn't _accidentally_ draft and send out the order demanding that the signs be taken down. Someone intended it to have _some_ effect.


----------



## Fenris-77

That sounds like criminal negligence to me. What a week. Lot of true colors on display IMO.


----------



## Mistwell

So...not much D&D left in this "D&D And The Rising Pandemic" thread, is there?


----------



## Maxperson

Mistwell said:


> So...not much D&D left in this "D&D And The Rising Pandemic" thread, is there?



If these lines get much longer, you can play a game of D&D while you wait!


----------



## jgsugden

robus said:


> Given what I saw in Charleston, SC this morning not enough people are concerned yet. Brunch spots were packed.



Do you know what the guidance is in Charleston relating to how to properly execute social distancing?  They say to follow the CDC guidelines, and those guidelines do not call for an end to brunch.

_








						Charleston, SC
					

Frequently Asked Questions About the Coronavirus in Charleston




					www.charleston-sc.gov
				




*Okay, I think I get it. Anything else we need to know?*
Two things, for now.

First, make sure you’re following reliable sources for news about this virus. Here locally, that typically means sources like the Post and Courier, Charleston City Paper, and Channels 5, 4, 2 and 24 among others. Social media is also a powerful tool at times like these, but, as always, it’s wise consider the source.

Secondly, the best advice for individuals currently is to follow CDC guidelines. *If you’re elderly or ill*, avoid crowds. *If you feel sick*, do not go to work, and call your doctor to let them know your symptoms. Calling ahead will help your provider’s office take steps to keep other people from getting infected or exposed. And because the disease is spread so easily through direct contact, *wash your hands and use hand sanitizer frequently.*

Specifically, the CDC recommends the following:
_

_*Avoid close contact with people who are sick.*_
_*Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.*_
_*Stay home when you are sick.*_
_*Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.*_
_*Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe.*_
_Follow CDC’s recommendations for using a facemask._
_*CDC does not recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory diseases, including COVID-19.*_
_*Facemasks should be used by people who show symptoms of COVID-19 to help prevent the spread of the disease to others. The use of facemasks is also crucial for health workers and people who are taking care of someone in close settings (at home or in a health care facility).*_

_*Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing.*_
_If soap and water are not readily available, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol. Always wash hands with soap and water if hands are visibly dirty._

If you shut yourself in, stop frequenting business, etc... while healthy, you're doing a lot of harm by taking away business that is supporting the local economy.  If we all lock ourselves away for 2 weeks, families will go bankrupt, businesses will close, people will lose jobs, people will lose insurance, etc...

Look at the current guidance.  Follow it.  The guidance does not say to avoid brunch if you're healthy and not at high risk.  It says wash up, keep your hands away from your mouth (use utensils), and keep the sneezes covered and dispose of the kleenex.  Then disinfect.


----------



## Doug McCrae

jgsugden said:
			
		

> If you shut yourself in, stop frequenting business, etc... while healthy, you're doing a lot of harm by taking away business that is supporting the local economy.  If we all lock ourselves away for 2 weeks, families will go bankrupt, businesses will close, people will lose jobs, people will lose insurance, etc...



As @Umbran pointed out upthread, you can support the local economy and still maintain social distancing by, for example, buying vouchers for a meal at a restaurant. It's not either/or.


----------



## robus

jgsugden said:


> Do you know what the guidance is in Charleston relating to how to properly execute social distancing? They say to follow the CDC guidelines, and those guidelines do not call for an end to brunch.



Well given that this week is being called critical to getting a lid on the spread of this disease I would call those guidelines laughably inappropriate. Infected people do not show symptoms for a number of days. 

But you’re right, I’m just some random person on the internet thinking this not the time to be doing a lot of public socializing and hoping we don’t end up in a national lockdown. Everyone else enjoy your brunch...


----------



## NotAYakk

jgsugden said:


> Look at the current guidance.  Follow it.  The guidance does not say to avoid brunch if you're healthy and not at high risk.  It says wash up, keep your hands away from your mouth (use utensils), and keep the sneezes covered and dispose of the kleenex.  Then disinfect.



It says keep a 6 ft distance between you and everyone else.

"Limiting close contact with others as much as possible (about 6 feet). "

And if they prepared food for you and you didn't sterilize it, you are in close contact (if they are sick and don't know it, their breath carries the virus, and you are going to put it in your mouth).

Is it possible to not do Brunch?  Are those non-essential contacts?  Then CDC recomments that during an outbreak, you don't do it.


----------



## The Green Hermit

NotAYakk said:


> In my experience, it is sold out at discount/bulk places, and not sold out at places that charge more.




Regular grocery stores are running out as well. People are only allowed to buy two packages of tp and paper towels.


----------



## MarkB

The latest in the UK is that over-70s are expected to be asked to essentially self-isolate en masse for a long period in the very near future.

That sounds like something likely to cause a fair number of deaths simply due to vulnerable people being out of contact for extended periods, especially given that the care sector in the UK isn't exactly doing well even in normal circumstances.


----------



## jgsugden

Doug McCrae said:


> As @Umbran pointed out upthread, you can support the local economy and still maintain social distancing by, for example, buying vouchers for a meal at a restaurant. It's not either/or.



Buying a gift certificate is spreading the pain to later.  It is a good step.  However, if you ask these stores whether they'd prefer your purchase of product or your purchase of a gift certificate, they want the real business.  Personally, I'm doing both by continuing to live my life, following the CDCD guidelines, and buying a lot of gift certificates for my favorite local businesses.


robus said:


> Well given that this week is being called critical to getting a lid on the spread of this disease I would call those guidelines laughably inappropriate. Infected people do not show symptoms for a number of days.
> 
> But you’re right, I’m just some random person on the internet thinking this not the time to be doing a lot of public socializing and hoping we don’t end up in a national lockdown. Everyone else enjoy your brunch...



I don't know what you are, but I know what you are not.  You're not the CDC - which stands for the Center for Disease Control.  They're the people that you just laughed at.  You just laughed at the CDC about their virus guidance.  

We need to do what is safe to minimize the damage here.  That damage is not just caused by the virus.  It is also caused by people overreacting to the virus and doing harm with ill advised overreaction.  

For example, a lot of people that need distilled water for their health related devices can't get it because some idiots bought up all the distilled water.  Did they need it for their devices?  No.  They bought it because all the other bottled water is gone.  And there is no indication that people need to stockpile excessive amounts of bottled water.  

With very few exceptions - you folks are not experts.  Listen to the people that are and do what they say.  You may not understand how, you may never understand why - but their guidance is there for a reason - and they are the experts.


----------



## seebs

It's not always an all-or-nothing thing, but the epidemiologists I've seen advocating things have definitely strongly favored "don't go out in public if you can easily avoid it right now" over "oh don't worry about it". Young and healthy people may not be at much risk of dying, but they're at very high risk of being very effective _carriers_ and spreading the virus to a lot of other people.









						2019 coronavirus: The Korean clusters
					

How coronavirus cases exploded in South Korean churches and hospitals




					graphics.reuters.com


----------



## was

My gaming group met on Saturday as usual. The only precautions we took were using hand sanitizer on the way in and preparing food instead of ordering out.


----------



## Umbran

Doug McCrae said:


> As @Umbran pointed out upthread, you can support the local economy and still maintain social distancing by, for example, buying vouchers for a meal at a restaurant. It's not either/or.




In Boston, they'll be easing some licensing constraints for established restaurants who want to go into selling take-out or delivery food for the duration.  Grubhub and Doordash are gonna make a mint.


----------



## Umbran

was said:


> My gaming group met on Saturday as usual. The only precautions we took were using hand sanitizer on the way in and preparing food instead of ordering out.




Restaurant should generally be safe - the same measures that keep your food safe to eat every other day should also prevent coronavirus getting into your food.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> Restaurant should generally be safe - the same measures that keep your food safe to eat every other day should also prevent coronavirus getting into your food.



When the Chipotle contaminations were flying through the medial left and right, I did a little bit of research.  Sick restaurant workers causing illness clusters is a fairly common occurrence.  Most of them just aren't widely reported on.


----------



## Umbran

seebs said:


> But they didn't _accidentally_ draft and send out the order demanding that the signs be taken down. Someone intended it to have _some_ effect.




So... when one of the moderators carefully gives you a reason to not go anywhere near the no-politics rule... you should accept that reason.  Please.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> When the Chipotle contaminations were flying through the medial left and right, I did a little bit of research.  Sick restaurant workers causing illness clusters is a fairly common occurrence.




You may be missing an element of the statistics at this point.  

At the moment, Boston has a ban on gatherings of people larger than 250.  At that size, the chances that someone at the gathering has the illness becomes uncomfortably high.  In gatherings of a dozen or less, the chances that someone has the illness in most areas of the USA is very small.

If you go to a busy, crowded bar or restaurant, you get exposed to _everybody there_.  If you merely order food, you are effectively exposed to only the kitchen staff.  My local pizza place has five people behind the counter?  The chances that any of them are sick is currently minuscule.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> IOW, engineered plagues are, in some way, the most dangerous of all WMDs, not just to the enemy, but to the people who contemplate deploying them.




And, of course, it is worse for trying to use a natural epidemic, because you don't have a cure in hand.


----------



## Zardnaar

was said:


> My gaming group met on Saturday as usual. The only precautions we took were using hand sanitizer on the way in and preparing food instead of ordering out.




 You have hand sanitizer for D&D wow.......


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> You may be missing an element of the statistics at this point.
> 
> At the moment, Boston has a ban on gatherings of people larger than 250.  At that size, the chances that someone at the gathering has the illness becomes uncomfortably high.  In gatherings of a dozen or less, the chances that someone has the illness in most areas of the USA is very small.
> 
> If you go to a busy, crowded bar or restaurant, you get exposed to _everybody there_.  If you merely order food, you are effectively exposed to only the kitchen staff.  My local pizza place has five people behind the counter?  The chances that any of them are sick is currently minuscule.



The thing is, if someone at a fast food place IS sick with it, they are also involved in handling and preparing the food, not just in serving you.  They can infect hundreds a day.  At a finer place, it's less likely unless it's one of the chefs.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Two states already have closed down all restaurants and bars. France made the call yesterday.


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

jgsugden said:


> Do you know what the guidance is in Charleston relating to how to properly execute social distancing?  They say to follow the CDC guidelines, and those guidelines do not call for an end to brunch.
> 
> _
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Charleston, SC
> 
> 
> Frequently Asked Questions About the Coronavirus in Charleston
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.charleston-sc.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Okay, I think I get it. Anything else we need to know?*
> Two things, for now.
> 
> First, make sure you’re following reliable sources for news about this virus. Here locally, that typically means sources like the Post and Courier, Charleston City Paper, and Channels 5, 4, 2 and 24 among others. Social media is also a powerful tool at times like these, but, as always, it’s wise consider the source.
> 
> Secondly, the best advice for individuals currently is to follow CDC guidelines. *If you’re elderly or ill*, avoid crowds. *If you feel sick*, do not go to work, and call your doctor to let them know your symptoms. Calling ahead will help your provider’s office take steps to keep other people from getting infected or exposed. And because the disease is spread so easily through direct contact, *wash your hands and use hand sanitizer frequently.*
> 
> Specifically, the CDC recommends the following:
> _
> 
> _*Avoid close contact with people who are sick.*_
> _*Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.*_
> _*Stay home when you are sick.*_
> _*Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.*_
> _*Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe.*_
> _Follow CDC’s recommendations for using a facemask._
> _*CDC does not recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory diseases, including COVID-19.*_
> _*Facemasks should be used by people who show symptoms of COVID-19 to help prevent the spread of the disease to others. The use of facemasks is also crucial for health workers and people who are taking care of someone in close settings (at home or in a health care facility).*_
> 
> _*Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing.*_
> _If soap and water are not readily available, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol. Always wash hands with soap and water if hands are visibly dirty._
> 
> If you shut yourself in, stop frequenting business, etc... while healthy, you're doing a lot of harm by taking away business that is supporting the local economy.  If we all lock ourselves away for 2 weeks, families will go bankrupt, businesses will close, people will lose jobs, people will lose insurance, etc...
> 
> Look at the current guidance.  Follow it.  The guidance does not say to avoid brunch if you're healthy and not at high risk.  It says wash up, keep your hands away from your mouth (use utensils), and keep the sneezes covered and dispose of the kleenex.  Then disinfect.



The only proven way to reduce infection rates - until there's a vaccine - is by social distancing/quarantine. Avoid close personal contact with other people. Indeed, if you are elderly or have underlying health conditions (there are quite a lot) that make you vulnerable to severe disease, then just avoid other people. Become a-social. Businesses will take a hit, economies around the world will go into recession. Only sociopaths would argue that protecting business has a higher priority than saving lives.


----------



## robus

jgsugden said:


> I don't know what you are, but I know what you are not. You're not the CDC - which stands for the Center for Disease Control. They're the people that you just laughed at. You just laughed at the CDC about their virus guidance.



Well they just shut down all the schools in the state, so perhaps the CDC is a little behind the curve so to speak.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> The thing is, if someone at a fast food place IS sick with it, they are also involved in handling and preparing the food, not just in serving you.




I was not differentiating between cooks and wait staff.  All I'm concerned with is the number of people involved in getting you food.  



> They can infect hundreds a day.




I am talking about your _personal_ risk in ordering from the restaurant.  How many other people order from the restaurant does not, to first approximation, increase your own risk.  You seem to be talking about the risk to the community from having restaurants open at all.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> You may be missing an element of the statistics at this point.
> 
> At the moment, Boston has a ban on gatherings of people larger than 250.  At that size, the chances that someone at the gathering has the illness becomes uncomfortably high.  In gatherings of a dozen or less, the chances that someone has the illness in most areas of the USA is very small.
> 
> If you go to a busy, crowded bar or restaurant, you get exposed to _everybody there_.  If you merely order food, you are effectively exposed to only the kitchen staff.  My local pizza place has five people behind the counter?  The chances that any of them are sick is currently minuscule.



The point of social distancing is not to save you.  We don't really care if you get sick.

The point is to drop R0.

And you getting sick boosts R0.

Suppose there are 1000 people currently infected.  There is a background R0 (spreading rate per infected person) of 0.5 with social distancing; so, after ~4 days, another 500 people are going to be infected.

That sucks, but an R0 of 0.5 is a winning situation.  Because those 500 only infect 250, which only infect 125, which only infect 62, which only infect 31, which only infect 15, which only infect 7, which only infect 3, , which only infect 2, which only infects 1, who is tracked down before they infect someone else.

Now, suppose the area has a population of 10 million.  Remember, only 1000 infected and untracked.

Now suppose you do some action that has a 0.005% chance of getting you infected each day.  1 in 20,000!  How very unlikely!  Somethimg like: 5 people touch the food, and odds any one person is infected is 1 in 10000.  And even if they are infected, only a 1/10 chance they'll pass it to you!  So 0.005% chance of getting infected!

But so do the other 10 million people.

0.00005 * 10,000,000 is 500.  Over 2 days this comes to 1000 more people infected.

500+1000 means that the current 1000 people infect 1500.  An R0 of 1.5.

Those 1500 infect 2250, who infect 3400, who infect 5000, who infect 7500, who infect 11,000, who infect 17000, etc.

This doesn't look as great as the first situation does it?

The action you did -- reduce distancing on 5 people when 0.01% of the population is infected -- can boost R0 significantly if done widely.

This thing can take up to 2 weeks to develop.  If we keep distance for 2 weeks and make R0 low, the disease will starve, and collapse.  If people did perfect isolation for 2 weeks, and then afterwards only went out if they where well and had no exposure to someone sick, we'd reduce covid19 down to trace numbers.

If we drop R0 to 0.5 and hold it for a month, and start testing everyone with flu symptoms towards the end of the period, we can do something similar.

If R0 remains over 1.0 with current measures, then there isn't a way to choke off the virus without a huge testing response (basically, new measures to lower R0).


----------



## Celebrim

Mistwell said:


> So...not much D&D left in this "D&D And The Rising Pandemic" thread, is there?




No, but as a request to the EnWorld staff, I would love to see them focus the next week or two on how to play games on line for those of us that never thought we'd ever do that.


----------



## robus

Celebrim said:


> No, but as a request to the EnWorld staff, I would love to see them focus the next week or two on how to play games on line for those of us that never thought we'd ever do that.



I went to Roll20 earlier today to investigate that option and they were reporting bandwidth issues, so I guess a lot of people are switching to remote play.


----------



## Umbran

robus said:


> Well they just shut down all the schools in the state, so perhaps the CDC is a little behind the curve so to speak.




The issue of school closings is complicated by a great many factors that are outside the CDC's purview.  For example, does taking a kid out of school, and putting them in the hands of some hastily found, possibly less than qualified day care actually reduce risks?  Does leaving a kid with food insecurity because Mom or Dad now has to stay home from work reducing risks?  

Those decisions are likely best handled on the local level most of the time, based on local risk.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Umbran said:


> The issue of school closings is complicated by a great many factors that are outside the CDC's purview.  For example, does taking a kid out of school, and putting them in the hands of some hastily found, possibly less than qualified day care actually reduce risks?  Does leaving a kid with food insecurity because Mom or Dad now has to stay home from work reducing risks?
> 
> Those decisions are likely best handled on the local level most of the time, based on local risk.




This is what Washington schools are having to figure out this week. We all knew it was coming, although most of us only envisioned a couple of weeks on either side of Spring Break max. However, we thought we would have at least a week to get everything figured out.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> I was not differentiating between cooks and wait staff.  All I'm concerned with is the number of people involved in getting you food.
> 
> I am talking about your _personal_ risk in ordering from the restaurant.  How many other people order from the restaurant does not, to first approximation, increase your own risk.  You seem to be talking about the risk to the community from having restaurants open at all.



Yes.  The more infected people are out in the community due to these restaurants, the more those people will in turn infect others with it.  That will result in many more people that will potentially come into contact with me and/or my family.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> The point of social distancing is not to save you.




The point is to recognize that folks gotta eat.

Technically, you have to compare the number of people who are at the restaurant handling food... with the people who are at the grocery store, handling the products I buy to prepare at home.  All those folks restocking the shelves.  All those other people in the grocery, coughing as they pass by the canned tuna.

Current estimations are that the virus may be able to stay viable for up to three days on non-porous surfaces (like plastic or metal) and a day on porous surfaces like cardboard.  How many folks am I effectively exposed to by buying food? 

The point is that this way lies madness.


----------



## jgsugden

robus said:


> Well they just shut down all the schools in the state, so perhaps the CDC is a little behind the curve so to speak.



The CDC are the experts.  When they advise, we should listen.  If you think your opinion and knowledge on disease control exceeds the CDC... well, nothing anyone else says to you will matter.  However, I am going to trust that they understand the costs, we well as the benefits, of the courses of action they recommend.  When the CDC says to stay home, I'll be home.  Until then, I'll follow their guidance and help contribute to the world.  Doing so will keep businesses open, keep people employed with insurance, and keep people from ending up in a litany of other dangers beyond the virus.

As for closing the schools, where immature people who can't understand, much less follow, directives on social distancing, makes a lot of sense.  And, yes, I am talking about the high school and universities as well.  I doubt it was done against the advice they received from the CDC.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> The point is to recognize that folks gotta eat.
> 
> Technically, you have to compare the number of people who are at the restaurant handling food... with the people who are at the grocery store, handling the products I buy to prepare at home.  All those folks restocking the shelves.  All those other people in the grocery, coughing as they pass by the canned tuna.
> 
> Current estimations are that the virus may be able to stay viable for up to three days on non-porous surfaces (like plastic or metal) and a day on porous surfaces like cardboard.  How many folks am I effectively exposed to by buying food?
> 
> The point is that this way lies madness.



The more you do, the lower you help R0 go.

When outside, assume your hands are contaminated.  (Still attempt to avoid contamination).  Don't touch your face.  When you transition to a safe area (like your home), wash hands as close to entering as possible.  Wipe down doorknobs you touched before you did that with bleach solution/alchohol.  Take off exposed clothing at the door, especially clothing used to open doors (don't use bare hands to open doors outside of your home; use your shirt or something else).  Launder it before using it again.  Wash hands after handling laundry.

Buy food.  Wipe it down at home.  Wash fruit and veg.  Cook it.  Wash hands after handling pantry goods and before eating/touching your face.

Cooked things don't carry it from before being cooked.  Things wiped down can be assumed not to carry it.  Things last exposed 3 days ago can be assumed not to carry it.

Just treat stuff brought into your house like raw chicken or beef.

Now, this is a continuum.  If you don't do this it isn't as if you are infected  and dead.  But the more of this stuff you do, the safer your friends and family and community is.

I know some people who started working at the central health agency and worked on pandemics.  They stopped opening doors with their hands outside of their home years ago.

Habits are not trivial to form, but they aren't super expensive either.


----------



## Celebrim

jgsugden said:


> The CDC are the experts.  When they advise, we should listen.




The CDC hasn't exactly covered themselves in glory, and I've worked too much for the feds to assume that if they are working for the Federal Government, they are experts in anything useful.

For some of us, federal bureaucracy isn't something far off and removed thing. There are probably some really great people in the CDC. But, going by what the other agencies of the Federal Government were like when I worked with them, they are probably depressed, overworked, unheeded and outnumbered 10 to 1 by people who have more skill points in Bureaucracy and Bluff than Medicine.

That said, the general idea that you should listen to people who are educated in medicine more than random persons on the internet is usually sound on a statistical basis.


----------



## FrogReaver

The question on whether visiting a grocery store or obtaining food from delivery from a restaurant is better in terms of spreading the virus is interesting.


----------



## NotAYakk

So the top doctor in my town has said "don't go out unless absolutely necessary".  Estimates of infection are between 0.01% and 0.1% of the city (only 0.001% diagnosed, but math says that isn't close to most of them; too many community infections).

I suspect bars and restaurants are going to be closed tomorrow.

We have plenty of labs and people skilled at testing, but we ran out of nasal swabs.  !@#$!

If anyone has a "playing online 101" they can share, I'd love to see it.  I'm not going to the game I have tonight, even tho the DM is going to be there.

+25% increase in infections every day, 3x every 5 days, 10x every 10 days.


----------



## Zardnaar

I'm at home for the forseeable future. Wife's at work and she is in freight. Goods still gotta be shipped.

You can't mitigate 100%. Ideally everyone stays at home. Reality people gotta eat. Stuff has to be shipped (fuel, food, supplies etc). 

 Outside of some South Pacific islands it's already to late to contain it.

Currently cleaning the house and wiping down all surfaces we will use. 

 Gonna be cooking and doing the housework for however long. I think last week's cancellation is gonna become until further notice.

Plenty of yardwork to do, kitchen and bathroom need work. Might make a start on renovations.

 Family bach here, wonder if the relations will rent it out. 









						Penzance Bay - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




 If it gets worse can always go bush 1941 style grandad's bolthole if Japan invaded. All the fresh water, oysters, mussels fish you can eat (I hate seafood).


----------



## MarkB

Celebrim said:


> No, but as a request to the EnWorld staff, I would love to see them focus the next week or two on how to play games on line for those of us that never thought we'd ever do that.



Aside from VTT software, a lot of business communication software companies are offering extended free trials of things like videoconferencing software as a result of the outbreak. Some of these might serve rather well for running games online.


----------



## MoonSong

robus said:


> I went to Roll20 earlier today to investigate that option and they were reporting bandwidth issues, so I guess a lot of people are switching to remote play.



It shouldn't be difficult to set up a private chat. At least I think it shouldn't to someone with technical knowledge. (Not me though, but I'm having an idea on how it could be done for a small number of people) There's also Skype and some other teleconference services to try...


----------



## MarkB

MoonSong said:


> It shouldn't be difficult to set up a private chat. At least I think it shouldn't to someone with technical knowledge. (Not me though, but I'm having an idea on how it could be done for a small number of people) There's also Skype and some other teleconference services to try...



Discord works well for private shared audio.


----------



## Galandris

Acolyte of Zothique said:


> Businesses will take a hit, economies around the world will go into recession. Only sociopaths would argue that protecting business has a higher priority than saving lives.




Growth, especially in low and middle income countries, is linked to reduced mortality rate. While it's worthwhile to cause a recession to save a few thousands lives in the developped countries -- especially as, in high income countries, the effects of reducing use of cars (due to loss of jobs) lowers the number of death in car accidents, so the correlation between mortality rate and recession is less clear -- it might not be the wisest choice globally as it can cause an increase of mortality rate in, say, China that would end up costing many more lives, albeit silently.


----------



## Argyle King

Thus far, nothing about my normal daily routine has been changed by me.

I'm working from home, but that wasn't my decision. Gaming and everything else I do is basically normal, but with cheaper fuel prices.


----------



## Fenris-77

At a reputable restaurant the cooks are working on par with nurses when it comes to the kind of food safety you need. Massive amounts of hand washing, sanitizing, and good hand placement practice. I'd trust a competent cook way before some rando's at the grocery store. Mind you, just wash your veg properly, rub down boxes and cans, and you'll mostly be fine. Mostly with boxes of stuff I'd decant into my own tupperware and toss the boxes because there's no easy way to disinfect cardboard. Cans and plastic can be doused in a light bleach solution if needed. Cheaper and just as effective as lysol wipes. More effective actually, in many cases.


----------



## MoonSong

MarkB said:


> Discord works well for private shared audio.



Curiously for homework I had to write a small software for a shoutbox. It shouldn't be too difficult to modiffy it for tabletop (adding dice is all too easy) and share the IP with some people so they can connect to it at the same time. Too bad I'm entering three very busy weeks.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Something useful:


----------



## MarkB

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Something useful:



I like this one:


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> Yes.  The more infected people are out in the community due to these restaurants, the more those people will in turn infect others with it.




I was, in fact, talking about ordering in.  Did you miss that?

Oh, and by the way... do you want to talk about the impact of having these low-wage earners having their jobs disappear, and what impact their subsequent behavior has on R0?  Because that may be a tad inconvenient to your point.


----------



## jgsugden

For those planning on using the internet for video gaming - Have backup plans.  Emailing pictures of the game table and audio chatting may be the best you can do if there is a massive uptick in bandwidth use for socializing.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Re: grocery stores as vectors

Back in the 1980s, I had worked out details of a plan for curbside delivery of groceries to busy shoppers who called ahead.  The family I did that for never found the funds to open their grocery store.

Over the past 5 years, we’ve seen several major stores roll out curbside/“will call” type shopping experiences.

And just the other day, POTUS asked Target & other big retailers to host drive through Covid-19 testing locations In their parking lot.

It seems to me that the retailers in that group who also sell groceries (& other necessities) would be doing a good thing to introduce or expand existing curbside services.  It would minimize disease vectors by maximizing the social distancing between shoppers.  Especially if curbside service is the only option...

Inconvenient?  Sure.  But less so than contributing to the spread of the pandemic.  It shouldn’t be any worse than the gas lines of the 1970s.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I was, in fact, talking about ordering in.  Did you miss that?



In fairness, _I_ did.  But I’d still feel safer in a restaurant than a grocery store.

Not that I feel particularly unsafe in a grocery, mind you.  I _did_ just gave to go the other day, and while the aisles were still relatively uncongested, the checkout area was a sea of humanity.  No possibility of social distancing at all.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> I was, in fact, talking about ordering in.  Did you miss that?




I did miss that, but it doesn't really change what I said.  Restaurants that do have sick people are still going to be greatly increasing my chances of contracting the illness.  They should be shut down for the duration.



> Oh, and by the way... do you want to talk about the impact of having these low-wage earners having their jobs disappear, and what impact their subsequent behavior has on R0?  Because that may be a tad inconvenient to your point.



Hopefully the government issues the help that they have been saying that they are working on, because if it comes down to a choice between low-wage earners working for the duration of this vs. people dying, I'm going to be on the side of less people dying.  Death is more than an inconvenience.


----------



## MarkB

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Re: grocery stores as vectors
> 
> Back in the 1980s, I had worked out details of a plan for curbside delivery of groceries to busy shoppers who called ahead.  The family I did that for never found the funds to open their grocery store.
> 
> Over the past 5 years, we’ve seen several major stores roll out curbside/“will call” type shopping experiences.
> 
> And just the other day, POTUS asked Target & other big retailers to host drive through Covid-19 testing locations In their parking lot.
> 
> It seems to me that the retailers in that group who also sell groceries (& other necessities) would be doing a good thing to introduce or expand existing curbside services.  It would minimize disease vectors by maximizing the social distancing between shoppers.  Especially if curbside service is the only option...
> 
> Inconvenient?  Sure.  But less so than contributing to the spread of the pandemic.  It shouldn’t be any worse than the gas lines of the 1970s.



A lot of supermarkets over here are already set up for home delivery, but it'd be nice to have the option of a remote (app based?) delivery-receipt system so that you could ask the driver to just leave the items at the door and let you bring them in afterwards to limit contact.


----------



## jgsugden

MarkB said:


> A lot of supermarkets over here are already set up for home delivery, but it'd be nice to have the option of a remote (app based?) delivery-receipt system so that you could ask the driver to just leave the items at the door and let you bring them in afterwards to limit contact.



Do you know how long the virus can survive on cardboard?  Up to 24 hours.  If your delivery guy has it and does not practice safe practices, then it is coming into your house.









						The New Coronavirus Can Live On Surfaces For 2-3 Days — Here's How To Clean Them
					

A new study measured the life span of the novel coronavirus on surfaces. Here's what they found, plus expert advice for cleaning the stuff you touch.




					www.npr.org


----------



## MarkB

jgsugden said:


> Do you know how long the virus can survive on cardboard?  Up to 24 hours.  If your delivery guy has it and does not practice safe practices, then it is coming into your house.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The New Coronavirus Can Live On Surfaces For 2-3 Days — Here's How To Clean Them
> 
> 
> A new study measured the life span of the novel coronavirus on surfaces. Here's what they found, plus expert advice for cleaning the stuff you touch.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org



Thanks, that I hadn't heard. I was assuming that it'd perish reasonably quickly outside a host - minutes rather than hours, let alone days.


----------



## seebs

Maxperson said:


> Hopefully the government issues the help that they have been saying that they are working on, because if it comes down to a choice between low-wage earners working for the duration of this vs. people dying, I'm going to be on the side of less people dying.  Death is more than an inconvenience.




Turns out that this kills people too, and perhaps more directly, creates strong incentives for people to not "notice" that they're sick, or to engage in motivated reasoning to conclude that it's nothing, and that means... people die.

Turns out paid sick leave is a huge win from a public health standpoint.


----------



## Maxperson

seebs said:


> Turns out that this kills people too, and perhaps more directly, creates strong incentives for people to not "notice" that they're sick, or to engage in motivated reasoning to conclude that it's nothing, and that means... people die.
> 
> Turns out paid sick leave is a huge win from a public health standpoint.




Er.  I said that hopefully the government issues money to pay for people to stay home.  That's what they have been saying that they have been working on.  That's paid sick leave.  It doesn't create an incentive to kill people.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> Turns out paid sick leave is a huge win from a public health standpoint.



Amen!


----------



## Celebrim

jgsugden said:


> Do you know how long the virus can survive on cardboard?  Up to 24 hours.  If your delivery guy has it and does not practice safe practices, then it is coming into your house.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The New Coronavirus Can Live On Surfaces For 2-3 Days — Here's How To Clean Them
> 
> 
> A new study measured the life span of the novel coronavirus on surfaces. Here's what they found, plus expert advice for cleaning the stuff you touch.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org




So you assume the delivery guy hasn't practiced safe practices and you treat everything as potentially contaminated. You put it on a reserve pantry for 2-3 days, then you wash your hands thoroughly. 

You'll going to have to get to the new hygiene normal being a lot closer to a hospital than what we're used to.


----------



## Celebrim

seebs said:


> Turns out that this kills people too, and perhaps more directly, creates strong incentives for people to not "notice" that they're sick, or to engage in motivated reasoning to conclude that it's nothing, and that means... people die.
> 
> Turns out paid sick leave is a huge win from a public health standpoint.




I get paid sick leave and often (hitherto) powered through it because I don't have one of those jobs which just goes away because I'm not paying attention to it.  There are deadlines to meet or things go a bit kaplooie.  Fortunately in this case I can work remotely.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cleaned house today including the toaster, microwave, door handles, oven and anywhere you put your hands in the kitchen. 

 Throw in the shower, taps, basin, toilet got done twice. 

 Wiped down some walls. Probably do the rest tomorrow cupboard handles. 

 Almost used a roll of hand towels.


----------



## robus

And here’s the CDC playing catch up again:









						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Get Your Mass Gatherings or Large Community Events Ready for Coronavirus Disease 2019
					

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Get Your Mass Gatherings or Large Community Events Ready for Coronavirus Disease 2019




					www.cdc.gov
				




Edit: if 50 people is the limit they should also think about bars and nightclubs...


----------



## Umbran

jgsugden said:


> Do you know how long the virus can survive on cardboard?  Up to 24 hours.  If your delivery guy has it and does not practice safe practices, then it is coming into your house.




Yeah, but same goes for the person who was restocking the shelves in the store.  Unless you went out two weeks ago, and bought 3 months of food, you're gonna have to face some risk.  Sorry.  

In my state all bars are now closed.  The governor has ordered no dine-in at restaurants at all - only take out or delivery.  Gatherings of more than 25 people are now banned, even for religious purposes.  

They are not screwing around.


----------



## FrogReaver

My current plan.  Get enough supplies to last at least a month.  Hunker down and only go out if it's something essential.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> My current plan.  Get enough supplies to last at least a month.  Hunker down and only go out if it's something essential.




 We didn't have to stick up much as we normally have several weeks of stuff anyway. 

 Bought two 18 packs of toilet paper,  flour for bread and some extra rice/flour. Found 20 odd cans or beans, spaghetti, fruit, chickpeas etc in the cupboard. Not sure about expiry dates. Not worried about fresh but can't be rotten. 

 Worst case scenario home made soup pored on rice with potatoes stirred in. Also went and round the bread maker. 

 All the new stuff is in a separate room. 

 Variety might suck but we're several weeks behind from the look of it. No panic buying at least to the extent of overseas.


----------



## Sacrosanct

robus said:


> And here’s the CDC playing catch up again:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Get Your Mass Gatherings or Large Community Events Ready for Coronavirus Disease 2019
> 
> 
> Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Get Your Mass Gatherings or Large Community Events Ready for Coronavirus Disease 2019
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Edit: if 50 people is the limit they should also think about bars and nightclubs...





They are. California announced all bars and clubs closed, and restaurants take out only.  Oregon will soon follow


----------



## seebs

Maxperson said:


> Er.  I said that hopefully the government issues money to pay for people to stay home.  That's what they have been saying that they have been working on.  That's paid sick leave.  It doesn't create an incentive to kill people.




Yes. But they've been working on doing it for a tiny subset of workers, so a lot of workers still don't have paid sick leave, and if they don't get paid, some of them will die, because we don't really _do_ functional social safety nets around here.

I'm cautiously optimistic that the various relevant governmental bodies are finally starting to take stuff seriously, but man did it take way too long for them to get started on that.

If only there were some way to like, have experts on this stuff _already keeping an eye on it_ before the pandemic starts.


----------



## FrogReaver

I found this site for up to date coronavirus info. 

Coronavirus Update (Live): 169,605 Cases and 6,518 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Seems to be a good source of up to date info on the number of cases, deaths, recoveries, etc.  Even breaks that down by nation and provides a graph showing the historical progression.


----------



## FrogReaver

seebs said:


> If only there were some way to like, have experts on this stuff _already keeping an eye on it_ before the pandemic starts.




You mean like having a CDC?


----------



## Sacrosanct

It's really tough to self quarantine and hunker down with blended families.  Which are a lot more common now. My partner and her kid and I can't just hunker down. His dad is a musician, so we legitimately worry his huge exposure pool puts him at risk, and we can't very well say "sorry, you can't see your kid for months". 

I imagine my scenario isn't all that rare.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

At 52, I’m the youngest person in the household.  I suspect that in the near future- but for my Dad going to work- I’m going to be the one who does most of the things that need to ge done outside of the house.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sacrosanct said:


> It's really tough to self quarantine and hunker down with blended families.  Which are a lot more common now. My partner and her kid and I can't just hunker down. His dad is a musician, so we legitimately worry his huge exposure pool puts him at risk, and we can't very well say "sorry, you can't see your kid for months".
> 
> I imagine my scenario isn't all that rare.




 The idea is to limit your exposure to everyone else. 

 Musician might need to have a break.  There's not going to be a lot of punters anyway. 

 If you have symptoms then you isolate full stop no if's or buts. Dry cough, fever, respiratory problems are the big ones. You don't need to go to the hospital unless you have severe symptoms or respiratory problems. Might just be a cold or normal flu. 

 Most cases are mild, obviously you can't avoid your immediate family in your house. 

 Otherwise use Skype or have a break. If someone like a musician wants to go perform in crowds you don't have to associate with them. 

 Don't hang out in large crowds or high risk people. High risk includes people who like large crowds and medical professionals unless you have to see your doctor. 

 You're better off not going to the pharmacy or hospital unless you have no choice.


----------



## seebs

FrogReaver said:


> You mean like having a CDC?




Yeah, and specifically, having a pandemic response team that, until a couple of years ago, was specifically monitoring for things like this in a lot more countries, including China, so they could be on top of things and possibly even help those countries catch stuff like this before it spread in the first place.

Man, that was a cool idea. I wonder what happened to it.


----------



## FrogReaver

seebs said:


> Yeah, and specifically, having *a pandemic response team* that, until a couple of years ago, was specifically monitoring for things like this in a lot more countries, including China, so they could be on top of things and possibly even help those countries catch stuff like this before it spread in the first place.
> 
> Man, that was a cool idea. I wonder what happened to it.




Isn't that what the whole CDC is - "a pandemic response team"?


----------



## seebs

Not really. Their funding got badly cut, and there was a different group specifically focused on this kind of situation (but I think under the NSC, not the CDC) that got fired a while back because, as long as they do their job, it doesn't look important because we don't have so many pandemics.


----------



## FrogReaver

seebs said:


> Not really. Their funding got badly cut, and there was a different group specifically focused on this kind of situation (but I think under the NSC, not the CDC) that got fired a while back because, as long as they do their job, it doesn't look important because we don't have so many pandemics.




So the Center for Disease Control's job isn't to monitor, control and respond to pandemics?


----------



## slobster

FrogReaver said:


> Isn't that what the whole CDC is - "a pandemic response team"?



Actually no, the CDC does a lot of things, most of them involved in routine standards of care and best practices for healthcare related to, surprisingly, diseases. Most of what the CDC does is day-by-day healthcare. A small portion of the CDC is dedicated to monitoring, preparing for, and responding to potential widespread outbreaks of known and novel diseases.

I mean I know you two are dancing around a political topic, but I thought I'd throw in that answer to your question.


----------



## FrogReaver

slobster said:


> Actually no, the CDC does a lot of things, most of them involved in routine standards of care and best practices for healthcare related to, surprisingly, diseases. Most of what the CDC does is day-by-day healthcare. A small portion of the CDC is dedicated to monitoring, preparing for, and responding to potential widespread outbreaks of known and novel diseases.
> 
> I mean I know you two are dancing around a political topic, but I thought I'd throw in that answer to your question.




Stating the CDC's mission objectives has nothing to do with politics.


----------



## slobster

FrogReaver said:


> Stating the CDC's mission objectives has nothing to do with politics.



Okay cool, so in answer to your question:



FrogReaver said:


> Isn't that what the whole CDC is - "a pandemic response team"?



The answer is no, that is not what the whole CDC is.


----------



## FrogReaver

slobster said:


> Okay cool, but in answer to your question:
> 
> 
> The answer is no, that is not what the whole CDC is.




You do know what hyperbole is right?

The point is that we have an agency responsible for monitoring and responding to pandemics.  It's called the CDC.


----------



## slobster

FrogReaver said:


> You do know what hyperbole is right?
> 
> The point is that we have an agency responsible for monitoring and responding to pandemics.  It's called the CDC.



I read your question as an actual question. Sorry if I got it wrong! Nuance can be hard to read on the internet.

In the case that you were legitimately asking if that was the CDC's sole mission, I provided an answer. Now that I've given it, have a great night! And stay safe (applying to everyone).


----------



## GreyLord

So, looking at gaming options from home, checked out the chat/discord from ENworld.  many people seemed to be online there.  Not sure how to connect to games though, or how to run a game if one wanted to run one via that instead.

It could be a resource to turn to for at home gaming at this time though I think, probably people are already doing it I just couldn't figure it out at first glance.

Over 100 people were online at the time though, so many seem to be using it.


----------



## Ogre Mage

Sacrosanct said:


> They are. California announced all bars and clubs closed, and restaurants take out only.  Oregon will soon follow




Washington State has also closed all bars and clubs; restaurants are take out only.  Group gatherings are now limited to 50 people.


----------



## Azzy

GreyLord said:


> So, looking at gaming options from home, checked out the chat/discord from ENworld.  many people seemed to be online there.  Not sure how to connect to games though, or how to run a game if one wanted to run one via that instead.
> 
> It could be a resource to turn to for at home gaming at this time though I think, probably people are already doing it I just couldn't figure it out at first glance.
> 
> Over 100 people were online at the time though, so many seem to be using it.



My group uses Tabletop Simulator and Teamspeak for playing online.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The panic buyers hit the Sam’s where my aunt works:


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The panic buyers hit the Sam’s where my aunt works:




 Panic buying started here. Bread is goneburger. Bought flour bread is easy to bake. 

 Quietly stocked up last two weeks, NZers sensible but there's a limit they just panicked last.


----------



## Maxperson

seebs said:


> Yes. But they've been working on doing it for a tiny subset of workers, so a lot of workers still don't have paid sick leave, and if they don't get paid, some of them will die, because we don't really _do_ functional social safety nets around here.




Medium and small businesses was what was announced.  Large businesses can afford to do it themselves.



> I'm cautiously optimistic that the various relevant governmental bodies are finally starting to take stuff seriously, but man did it take way too long for them to get started on that.[/quote}
> 
> I agree.


----------



## Whizbang Dustyboots

My regular group includes my son's friend, who has asthma, lives with his asthmatic mother, and elderly grandmother. No D&D with them, given the risks to all three of them if they get infected.

We will play D&D on the far side.

In the meantime, we'll be playing D&D and Tails of Equestria with a family-only group.


----------



## Todd Roybark

FrogReaver said:


> You do know what hyperbole is right?




Donald J Trump does at least. That is _not a political statement_, but an empirical observation, based off public statements Mr. Trump has given as a _Private Citizen_.

Here is one example:

Trump Steaks were advertised as “ The Greatest Steaks in the World”, yet received lower scores in a blind taste test, ran by the NY Post, than a much cheaper alternative.  Actual reviews were mixed.  The steaks were ‘grain finished’ which means, an all grain diet before slaughter, to promote ‘marbling’ aka fat.

Trump said this about Trump Steaks:
“*When it comes to great steaks, I’ve just raised the stakes!” 
“Trump Steaks are by far the best tasting, most flavorful beef you’ve ever had. Truly in a league of their own.”*

Just Talking about Steaks and Salesmanship.


----------



## Zardnaar

I've got a theory. If you need 144 rolls of toilet paper for 14 days you don't need to worry to much about Covid-19.


----------



## Sadras

Zardnaar said:


> I've got a theory. If you need 144 rolls of toilet paper for 14 days you don't need to worry to much about Covid-19.




And yet scouts are told to be prepared. The 14 day-lockdown could be extended right?
I mean it is also wise to ensure you have credit limit availability (overdraft facility, mortgage bond access facility and increasing credit card limits). You do not have to use all of it just have it available.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sadras said:


> And yet scouts are told to be prepared. The 14 day-lockdown could be extended right?
> I mean it is also wise to ensure you have credit limit availability (overdraft facility, mortgage bond access facility and increasing credit card limits). You do not have to use all of it just have it available.




 Sure but more stocks can be brought up. 

 Media reporting it creates fear of missing out (FOMO).


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Sadras said:


> And yet scouts are told to be prepared. The 14 day-lockdown could be extended right?
> I mean it is also wise to ensure you have credit limit availability (overdraft facility, mortgage bond access facility and increasing credit card limits). You do not have to use all of it just have it available.



I was a scout.  There’s being prepared, and being overprepared.  Everything you buy comes with an opportunity cost- not just to other buyers, but to yourself.

Some of that energy & money spent on acquiring TP- for a disease that doesn’t seem to affect the lower GI tract all that much- would be better spent getting things like Tylenol, nitrile gloves or facial tissues.

(But not in excess, of course.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I was a scout.  There’s being prepared, and being overprepared.  Everything you buy comes with an opportunity cost- not just to other buyers, but to yourself.
> 
> Some of that energy & money spent on acquiring TP- for a disease that doesn’t seem to affect the lower GI tract all that much- would be better spent getting things like Tylenol, nitrile gloves or facial tissues.
> 
> (But not in excess, of course.)




 Well those are getting hard to get. 

 Suppliers can't restock hand sanitizer. That's going to be a worldwide shortage for the forseeable future. Apparently 1/3rd aloe vera hell, 2 thirds some sort of alcohol will do in a pinch/better than nothing.


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

Galandris said:


> Growth, especially in low and middle income countries, is linked to reduced mortality rate. While it's worthwhile to cause a recession to save a few thousands lives in the developped countries -- especially as, in high income countries, the effects of reducing use of cars (due to loss of jobs) lowers the number of death in car accidents, so the correlation between mortality rate and recession is less clear -- it might not be the wisest choice globally as it can cause an increase of mortality rate in, say, China that would end up costing many more lives, albeit silently.



Spurious answer at best. If you don't focus on saving lives the mortality rate from the virus plus collateral increased mortality due to an overwhelmed health system - heart attacks not being dealt with; strokes not being dealt with; insufficient capacity to deal with trauma; insufficient capacity to provide cancer treatment; insufficient capacity to monitor conditions such as diabetes, MS, etc; will cause massive economic damage. I'm a health care professional; I can say that if your healthcare system can't cope because of the enormous surge of people needing medical intervention/ critical care then the COVID 19 mortality rate will rise to about 12%. Plus, the collateral death rate I explained above. World wide that equates to many millions of deaths.

Focus on preventing infection spread to flatten the curve of peak infection first. The economy has to be protected where possible  for sure but it's not the number one priority.

In China and South Korea, they haven't just managed to flatten the curve, they killed the curve.


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

Zardnaar said:


> Well those are getting hard to get.
> 
> Suppliers can't restock hand sanitizer. That's going to be a worldwide shortage for the forseeable future. Apparently 1/3rd aloe vera hell, 2 thirds some sort of alcohol will do in a pinch/better than nothing.



Nope, just use a bar of soap and hot water - that is all you need. People are focusing too much on hand wash. If you don't have hand sanitizer then a) do not touch your mouth, nose or eyes and b) wash your hands with soap and hot water for at least 20 seconds once you are indoors making sure you wash ALL parts of the hand - the thumbs; in-between the fingers; the pads of the fingers; the palms; the wrists. Use running water to rinse.


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

Umbran said:


> Yeah, but same goes for the person who was restocking the shelves in the store.  Unless you went out two weeks ago, and bought 3 months of food, you're gonna have to face some risk.  Sorry.
> 
> In my state all bars are now closed.  The governor has ordered no dine-in at restaurants at all - only take out or delivery.  Gatherings of more than 25 people are now banned, even for religious purposes.
> 
> They are not screwing around.



This is why the recommendation is to wash your hands regularly even if you stay indoors precisely because there are items in your home that have recently come from outside. Do not touch your mouth, nose or eyes with unwashed hands if you've handled items recently brought inside.

Managing infection control at this present time does require an almost OCD level of attention.


----------



## Galandris

Acolyte of Zothique said:


> Spurious answer at best. If you don't focus on saving lives the mortality rate from the virus plus collateral increased mortality due to an overwhelmed health system - heart attacks not being dealt with; strokes not being dealt with; insufficient capacity to deal with trauma; insufficient capacity to provide cancer treatment; insufficient capacity to monitor conditions such as diabetes, MS, etc; will cause massive economic damage. I'm a health care professional; I can say that if your healthcare system can't cope because of the enormous surge of people needing medical intervention/ critical care then the COVID 19 mortality rate will rise to about 12%. Plus, the collateral death rate I explained above. World wide that equates to many millions of deaths.
> 
> Focus on preventing infection spread to flatten the curve of peak infection first. The economy has to be protected where possible  for sure but it's not the number one priority.




I wasn't advocating doing nothing. I was reacting to your statement that only sociopaths would consider the economy over saving lives from Covid19. According to this study published on the Lancet, concordant with many others, the economic troubles in Brazil following the 2008 recession -- which could be milder than the one we are about to face -- caused an increase of mortality amounting to an additional 30,000 death in the country. It's not being a sociopath to worry about this indirect mortality, especially in China, whose population is much larger.


----------



## Acolyte of Zothique

Galandris said:


> I wasn't advocating doing nothing. I was reacting to your statement that only sociopaths would consider the economy over saving lives from Covid19. According to this study published on the Lancet, concordant with many others, the economic troubles in Brazil following the 2008 recession -- which could be milder than the one we are about to face -- caused an increase of mortality amounting to an additional 30,000 death in the country. It's not being a sociopath to worry about this indirect mortality, especially in China, whose population is much larger.



There are one or two posters on here who advocate that the main focus should be on saving the economy. Just, no.


----------



## Sadras

Zardnaar said:


> Sure but more stocks can be brought up.



Stocks as in investments? I'm not sure how you'd use them to help you in your day to day ability in financing your life though.



Dannyalcatraz said:


> I was a scout.  There’s being prepared, and being overprepared.  Everything you buy comes with an opportunity cost- not just to other buyers, but to yourself.
> 
> Some of that energy & money spent on acquiring TP- for a disease that doesn’t seem to affect the lower GI tract all that much- would be better spent getting things like Tylenol, nitrile gloves or facial tissues.




Energy utilised? Not much. And generally when people do stock up they acquire food and other items too. i.e. long-lasting foods, frozen foods, cleaning materials (soap/toothpaste). It won't be TP in isolation that gets purchased in bulk.

I used to audit a company that manufactured all sorts of cleaning related materials.. i.e. detergents and stuff including toilet paper. They used to refer to toilet paper as _white gold_. Always thought that was apt.


----------



## Fenris-77

Steps made to 'save' the economy are important. However, I don't think they are _more_ important than making sure people don't run out of money because they are complying with quarantine and then lose their houses, or jobs, or whatever. And none of that is _more_ important than trying to make sure as few people die as possible in the next while. Prioritizing the economy first is goofy.


----------



## NotAYakk

- Italians sending messages to themselves 10 days ago.

USA, France, UK, Spain, Germany, Denmark are roughly where Italy was 10 days ago, give or take a few days.

#stayathome

Does your job save lives?  No?  #stayathome


----------



## billd91

Fenris-77 said:


> Steps made to 'save' the economy are important. However, I don't think they are _more_ important than making sure people don't run out of money because they are complying with quarantine and then lose their houses, or jobs, or whatever. And none of that is _more_ important than trying to make sure as few people die as possible in the next while. Prioritizing the economy first is goofy.




It's, ultimately, the same kind of argument you get against any kind of remedy that's challenging to the status quo. You see it all the time about dealing with climate change - that the damage to economic growth is too severe to do anything significantly transformative. In effect, it's just kicking the can down the road until things are worse. And if you succeed, the threat of more dire consequences will fade from memory as counterfactuals and the only thing left will be the record of the economic damage suffered as the "over-reaction" to the crisis.


----------



## Doug McCrae




----------



## Sacrosanct

Zardnaar said:


> I've got a theory. If you need 144 rolls of toilet paper for 14 days you don't need to worry to much about Covid-19.




They’re talking about an 8 week lockdown and home isolation now. More than 14 days.


----------



## Umbran

Sacrosanct said:


> They’re talking about an 8 week lockdown and home isolation now. More than 14 days.




"They" are doing this?  Who are "they"?  

Cite, please, or this becomes fear-based rumor-mongering.

That really should be for everybody.  Cite sources, please.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> Isn't that what the whole CDC is - "a pandemic response team"?




No.  The CDC has a whole lot of function that isn't about acute pandemic response.  They are, overall about controlling disease - but that's disease broadly, not just infectious disease.  The CDC does everything form pandemic response to studying traffic deaths and heart disease demographics.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Umbran said:


> "They" are doing this?  Who are "they"?
> 
> Cite, please, or this becomes fear-based rumor-mongering.
> 
> That really should be for everybody.  Cite sources, please.




The CDC when it recommended no gatherings of 50 or more for 8 weeks. The way in the past they’ve been giving recommendations, and how the approach to self quarantine has evolved, it’s entirely probable to expect that would extend to families as well shortly.


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> "They" are doing this?  Who are "they"?
> 
> Cite, please, or this becomes fear-based rumor-mongering.
> 
> That really should be for everybody.  Cite sources, please.












						CDC recommends canceling events with 50 or more people for the next eight weeks throughout US
					

Conferences, festivals, parades, concerts, sporting events and weddings were some of the examples of events that should be postponed.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Whizbang Dustyboots

Sacrosanct said:


> The CDC when it recommended no gatherings of 50 or more for 8 weeks. The way in the past they’ve been giving recommendations, and how the approach to self quarantine has evolved, it’s entirely probable to expect that would extend to families as well shortly.



"No large gatherings" is not the same as "lock yourself in your toilet paper fort for two months."

And no, they're not going to say no groups of more than five people. First, it's not something that they can reasonably expect will happen and secondly, that's far below the point where they're worried about the virus being transmitted quickly.

The goal isn't to prevent the virus from being transmitted at all -- that's not something that can be reasonably hoped for -- but to slow it way down. Once you have people working from home and not going to restaurants or movie theaters, it will continue to spread, but slowly enough that, hopefully, hospitals won't ever have such a glut that they can't keep up. (Caveat: In some areas, all of these actions are too late and the hospitals are glutted. Kaiser hospitals in Oregon have just cancelled or postponed all surgeries not essential to saving someone's life in the near term because they need the beds.)


----------



## Sacrosanct

Whizbang Dustyboots said:


> "No large gatherings" is not the same as "lock yourself in your toilet paper fort for two months."
> 
> And no, they're not going to say no groups of more than five people. First, it's not something that they can reasonably expect will happen and secondly, that's far below the point where they're worried about the virus being transmitted quickly.
> 
> The goal isn't to prevent the virus from being transmitted at all -- that's not something that can be reasonably hoped for -- but to slow it way down. Once you have people working from home and not going to restaurants or movie theaters, it will continue to spread, but slowly enough that, hopefully, hospitals won't ever have such a glut that they can't keep up. (Caveat: In some areas, all of these actions are too late and the hospitals are glutted. Kaiser hospitals in Oregon have just cancelled or postponed all surgeries not essential to saving someone's life in the near term because they need the beds.)




Look at what the recommendations were when this started. Look how they changed. Look at where they are now. I don’t think it’s probable that this last recommendation will be the final revision. Especially looking at what’s happening in Italy, and especially looking at the woeful response our government has done so far.

No, I think it’s entirely plausible recommendations will continue to get tighter as this gets worse.


----------



## Umbran

Sacrosanct said:


> The CDC when it recommended no gatherings of 50 or more for 8 weeks.




Ah. I think that characterizing that as a "lockdown" is inaccurate.

At the moment, there's a prohibition against gatherings of more than 25 people in MA.  But, we can still go to the grocery.  We can even got to retails stores, so long as the retailer is observing that limit.  My wife (a veterinarian) is still seeing critical care cases.  We'll probably go out for a walk later to pay ambulatory mobile games.

We are not "locked down" in any meaningful sense.  



> The way in the past they’ve been giving recommendations, and how the approach to self quarantine has evolved, it’s entirely probable to expect that would extend to families as well shortly.




Your speculation that they might do a thing does not qualify as them talking about doing it.


----------



## NotAYakk

Whizbang Dustyboots said:


> "No large gatherings" is not the same as "lock yourself in your toilet paper fort for two months."
> 
> And no, they're not going to say no groups of more than five people. First, it's not something that they can reasonably expect will happen and secondly, that's far below the point where they're worried about the virus being transmitted quickly.



Austria has banned gatherings of 5 or more.









						COVID19: Austria bans public groups, tightens border
					

Austrians have been uged to self-isolate, with police deployed to disperse groups of more than five in public.




					www.aljazeera.com
				






> The goal isn't to prevent the virus from being transmitted at all -- that's not something that can be reasonably hoped for -- but to slow it way down. Once you have people working from home and not going to restaurants or movie theaters, it will continue to spread, but slowly enough that, hopefully, hospitals won't ever have such a glut that they can't keep up. (Caveat: In some areas, all of these actions are too late and the hospitals are glutted. Kaiser hospitals in Oregon have just cancelled or postponed all surgeries not essential to saving someone's life in the near term because they need the beds.)



So a big problem is that this is growing 22%-33% *per day*.  And deaths lag measures to contain the virus by about 3 weeks.

1.22^20 is 45.  1.33^20 is 300.

For every death there are 5 people who are very sick and need 2-6 weeks of ICU, and if they don't get it, they have a very high chance of death.

So if you have 2 deaths/day today, and you lock things down, in 20 days you can have 90 to 600 deaths/day, and every day have 450 to 3000 people who need ICU beds for ~4 weeks.

If you "level" the number of infections, after 3 weeks you need 9000 to 60000 ICU beds in use to keep people alive.

Nobody has enough ICU beds to handle that for very long.  So when you see that coming, extreme measures may be needed to prevent your hospital system from failing and needless deaths happening.

This is what is happening in Italy right now.









						Italy: coronavirus (COVID-19) cumulative cases 2022 | Statista
					

The first two cases of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in Italy were recorded between the end of January and the beginning of February 2020.




					www.statista.com
				




Those are new diagnosed cases; and as Italy is mostly diagnosing serious cases (that need hospital support), those are new serious cases (with about a week delay since infection).

*350* new deaths yesterday.  Those are mostly people who got infected before the lockdown measures.  Many only dead because Italy has an ICU shortage.  The numbers keep growing.









						How the US stacks up to other countries in confirmed coronavirus cases
					

The United States has about a third of the world’s coronavirus cases.




					www.vox.com
				




USA is 10 days behind Italy.

Here are Italians talking to themselves 10 days ago, telling themselves what they wished they knew then:


I hope that is sufficiently cited.

#stayathome


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Sadras said:


> Energy utilised? Not much. And generally when people do stock up they acquire food and other items too. i.e. long-lasting foods, frozen foods, cleaning materials (soap/toothpaste). It won't be TP in isolation that gets purchased in bulk.
> 
> I used to audit a company that used to manufacture all sorts of cleaning related materials.. i.e. detergents and stuff including toilet paper. They used to refer to toilet paper as _white gold_. Always thought that was apt.



Yes, energy utilized: the opportunity cost in acquiring (especially if Thunderdome combat was involved), transporting and storing an excess of TP (or sanitizers, etc.) that should have been used for other things is nontrivial.

Consider that some of these people have not gotten the supplies they actually need, and will have to go BACK out into the stores to find them if/when the need actually arises.  That means getting back into long lines- inside AND outside of the store, depending- to find these things.  Assuming they’re still available where they first shop for them.  If they’re not, the energy expended goes higher.

And people buying baskets or carloads of TP, etc. at a time for panic or profiteering are generally NOT buying other stuff at the same time- they physically don’t have the room to do so. There’s pictures of them out there, carts piled 8’ high of single products.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Umbran said:


> Ah. I think that characterizing that as a "lockdown" is inaccurate.
> 
> At the moment, there's a prohibition against gatherings of more than 25 people in MA.  But, we can still go to the grocery.  We can even got to retails stores, so long as the retailer is observing that limit.  My wife (a veterinarian) is still seeing critical care cases.  We'll probably go out for a walk later to pay ambulatory mobile games.
> 
> We are not "locked down" in any meaningful sense.  We aren't in Northern Italy yet.
> 
> 
> 
> Your speculation that they might do a thing does not qualify as them talking about doing it.




Looking at what has happened, and what is happening here and elsewhere, I think it’s pretty safe speculation to assume it will get tighter. In fact, only looking at what they say today in the moment only by CDC guidelines is setting you up for failure. The CDC hasn’t exactly proven themselves entirely reliable recently.

Look at what the Italians are telling us. look at what Austria just did. Yeah, it may be my speculation, but my speculation of risk assessment and being prepared is what has allowed me to remain home for months if I need to and have avoided putting myself at potential exposure by running out to stores of crowds of panic buyers.

So when the CDC goes from 500 people, to 250, to 100, to 50 now, I think it’s pretty obvious to see the writing on the wall of the trend.  Especially when you factor in what everyone else is implementing.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And people buying baskets or carloads of TP, etc. at a time for panic or profiteering...




Those doing it for profiteering may be in a bit of a shock, as there are laws against doing that with relevant materials when a state of emergency has been announced.


----------



## Umbran

Sacrosanct said:


> Look at what the Italians are telling us. look at what Austria just did. Yeah, it may be my speculation...




You don't seem to be getting this - I don't care that you think it is wise.  You presented your speculation as "Them" discussing it. 

If, in a state of emergency, you cannot see the issue with that, you are part of the problem, not part of the solution.  The fact that you think you are correct is _irrelevant_. We need clear channels of accurate information. The inaccurate presentation was the thing I took issue with.

So, talk about how you speculate this will happen all you want.  That's fine.  Just don't present is as if it might be coming from authorities.


----------



## SkidAce

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ...It shouldn’t be any worse than the gas lines of the 1970s.




Ugh


----------



## hawkeyefan




----------



## Sacrosanct

I see a lot of people say how the swine flu in 2009 killed a lot more people (150,000-500,000 worldwide, 12,000 in the US) so we shouldn’t really worry too much about corona virus. Keep in mind, the swine flu was detected in March. Three months in, only 142 deaths were attributed to it.  6000 so far for Coronavirus worldwide by comparison in the same period.  I’m not saying they are exactly apples to apples, but it illustrates why we need to take serious measures now, and not later.


----------



## MoonSong

While everybody is locking down and canceling gatherings of people over as little as 5, this happens in the land of the nopal:









						Mexico Holds Big Music Festival Despite Coronavirus Concerns
					

The coronavirus pandemic may have led authorities around the globe to cancel concerts and sporting events, and even shut down daily activities in some places




					www.nbcnewyork.com
				











						GUNS N' ROSES Performs At Mexico City's VIVE LATINO Festival Despite Coronavirus Concerns
					

GUNS N' ROSES performed at Mexico City's massive annual music festival Vive Latino Saturday night (March 14) despite thousands of people calling for the event to be canceled in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. At least a dozen of other artists had pulled out of the festival by Saturday...




					www.blabbermouth.net
				




I can't believe how irresponsible this was, local twitter is using #muerelatino to denounce this.


----------



## slobster

MoonSong said:


> While everybody is locking down and canceling gatherings of people over as little as 5, this happens in the land of the nopal:
> 
> I can't believe how irresponsible this was, local twitter is using #muerelatino to denounce this.



Wow, I was just talking to my friend in Monterrey, Mexico last night about how they were preparing, and joking that we wish the US wall was built already to keep all the sick gringos out. Man, I hope things don't hit them as badly, get out in front of it and you can avoid the worst, Mexico!


----------



## Mirtek

Big press conference at 18:00 CET (in 1h from now) and all signs point that Germany will be shut down after that too


----------



## Celebrim

Mirtek said:


> Big press conference at 18:00 CET (in 1h from now) and all signs point that Germany will be shut down after that too




Yeah, massive increase in the number of known cases in Germany today.  I feel like from the low CFR Germany has been out in front of finding its cases, but a few more days like this are going to make for some very bad days in the fatality rate 9-12 days from now.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Those doing it for profiteering may be in a bit of a shock, as there are laws against doing that with relevant materials when a state of emergency has been announced.



No doubt!  Apparently, the jackass who bought the 18k bottles of gel has donated a lot of it to a local shelter...after getting banned from Amazon, excoriated online, etc.


----------



## Fenris-77

Whelp, schools and daycares in my wildly remote neck of the woods are closed for 5 weeks as of tomorrow. Looks like I'm 'working' from home boys. Time to dust off the PtbA hack for 5e social interaction and urban play.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Sacrosanct said:


> I see a lot of people say how the swine flu in 2009 killed a lot more people (150,000-500,000 worldwide, 12,000 in the US) so we shouldn’t really worry too much about corona virus. Keep in mind, the swine flu was detected in March. Three months in, only 142 deaths were attributed to it.  6000 so far for Coronavirus worldwide by comparison in the same period.  I’m not saying they are exactly apples to apples, but it illustrates why we need to take serious measures now, and not later.



Yeah, they’re both dangerous respiratory diseases, but they’re still different beasts. One we have somewhat effective vaccines & antivirals for, plus a certain amou of herd immunity to.

The other?  Nada.  Just the same public health avoidance techniques available for any other contagion.


----------



## lowkey13

*Deleted by user*


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> No doubt!  Apparently, the jackass who bought the 18k bottles of gel has donated a lot of it to a local shelter...after getting banned from Amazon, excoriated online, etc.




After having the state Attorney General show up at his storage space, yes.


----------



## Whizbang Dustyboots

Remember that not all countries are identical. Italy has the second oldest population on Earth, behind Japan. So COVID-19 was always going to be especially bad there, even before they screwed around early and didn't jump on things in time. The more old people in your community, or people with compromised respiratory systems, the worse it'll be. 

You cannot simply say "this happened to Country A, therefore the same thing will happen to Country B," even if their governmental responses are identical.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Whizbang Dustyboots said:


> Remember that not all countries are identical. Italy has the second oldest population on Earth, behind Japan. So COVID-19 was always going to be especially bad there, even before they screwed around early and didn't jump on things in time. The more old people in your community, or people with compromised respiratory systems, the worse it'll be.
> 
> You cannot simply say "this happened to Country A, therefore the same thing will happen to Country B," even if their governmental responses are identical.




No, but you can predict very similar outcomes. Especially since the US trajectory is nearly identical as Italy, only 10 days behind. Basically what’s happening is:

Italy: we said all the same things you are saying now in the US two weeks ago, and we were totally wrong.
Americans: nah bro, we’ll do things our own way and ignore you
Americans later: WTF? This caught me totally by surprise!


----------



## slobster

To add on to @lowkey13 with my own story about local preparedness, I teach a class at our community college on weekends for phlebotomy students (the people who draw your blood). This Saturday we had a class, and while I was setting up in the back one of the other assistants was making an announcement about the corona virus situation.

It was, to paraphrase him, "nothing to worry about", "mostly just the media and politicians making a frenzy", "the flu kills thousands a year and nobody cares about that", "the only reason anyone cares about it is because the NBA cancelled games because they are worried about getting sued", "even the president isn't getting tested so you know it's not really a big deal", "even if you get it you'll probably be fine", the whole 9 yards. I swear to you this really happened, I am not repeating a story I heard from someone else or exaggerating a media report, I was in the room.

I was floored. This is a guy who is great at his job, whom I like and respect as a healthcare professional, but he was shovelling all this naughty word in front of these young, impressionable students who were looking for some reliable information and behavior to model their professional opinions on.

After he was done, I went up and made a follow-up announcement. I didn't directly contradict anything he said, because I think it's important not to have conflicting messages coming from positions of authority. But I restated the reasons why COVID-19 really is a different beast, and tried to emphasize our responsibilities as healthcare providers, that we need to really follow the information given by public health agencies because if we don't take it seriously, how can we expect civilians to do so, or to stay calm? I think underlining that we can be the difference between dozens or thousands of people getting sick, even dying, and being healthy got through to them, but it was hard.

But yeah, as if the virus wasn't bad enough, the alternate realities that different groups live in are just being reinforced by the alternate messages given by different sources/politicians/media companies. It's crazy how fragmented people's opinions on the seriousness of this situation, even within healthcare, often based on political persuasion and who a person listens to.


----------



## Dausuul

Whizbang Dustyboots said:


> Remember that not all countries are identical. Italy has the second oldest population on Earth, behind Japan. So COVID-19 was always going to be especially bad there, even before they screwed around early and didn't jump on things in time. The more old people in your community, or people with compromised respiratory systems, the worse it'll be.



That is true, but keep in mind that this thing is on an exponential curve. If we wait just a few days longer than Italy to go into full lockdown (i.e., we are 10 days behind them on the curve and we lock down 13-14 days after they do), that will erase any benefit from our younger population.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Dausuul said:


> That is true, but keep in mind that this thing is on an exponential curve. If we wait just a few days longer than Italy to go into full lockdown (i.e., we are 10 days behind them on the curve and we lock down 13-14 days after they do), that will erase any benefit from our younger population.




According to CNN, a Seattle hospital released a memo that unless additional steps are taken, we’re looking at exactly what Italy is going through.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Umbran said:


> Ah. I think that characterizing that as a "lockdown" is inaccurate.
> 
> At the moment, there's a prohibition against gatherings of more than 25 people in MA.  But, we can still go to the grocery.  We can even got to retails stores, so long as the retailer is observing that limit.  My wife (a veterinarian) is still seeing critical care cases.  We'll probably go out for a walk later to pay ambulatory mobile games.
> 
> We are not "locked down" in any meaningful sense.
> 
> 
> 
> Your speculation that they might do a thing does not qualify as them talking about doing it.





Dr Fauci was on with Poppy Harlow this morning and directly asked him about a two month lockdown (in the context of comparing to Italy), and after a brief pause pretty much confirmed that without actually saying the word lockdown. He said "I'd like to see it". Meaning, not policy, but since he's leading the effort, it makes sense it could be. He's not just any doctor. He's on the federal team making policy. 

So yeah, they are taking about it.


----------



## NotAYakk

Whizbang Dustyboots said:


> Remember that not all countries are identical. Italy has the second oldest population on Earth, behind Japan. So COVID-19 was always going to be especially bad there, even before they screwed around early and didn't jump on things in time. The more old people in your community, or people with compromised respiratory systems, the worse it'll be.
> 
> You cannot simply say "this happened to Country A, therefore the same thing will happen to Country B," even if their governmental responses are identical.



It happened in Country A, B and C.

We know what happened in 1918.  We know what pandemics and epidemics look like.

1.33^20 is 300x.  Every 10 days it gets 17x worse.  This is happening _everywhere_ we have numbers for except China, SK, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, etc -- the places that have instituted serious measures.

It doesn't matter if you have 3x the elderly population or 1/3 the elderly population of another country, when that factor of 10 is blown away by 8 days of exponential growth.

Exponential growth is hard to understand.  20 day delay on control vs result is hard to understand.  *We have both going on here*.

20 days after you start changing how it spreads before you can change how many people die or need ICU care.

In 20 days, this gets 50 to 300x bigger.

So when your ICU beds are less than 2% stressed by this (maybe as little as 0.3% stressed), that is when you have to panic, or things get very bad.

What more, 80% of deaths can be prevented with ICU care.  So for every death, you need 5 ICU beds, and those beds are in use about 4 weeks to save a life.  So for every death per day, you need 5 * 20 = 100 ICU beds treating people.  Run out of ICU beds, and anyone who needs one dies instead.

It has been 100 years since the USA was hit with a serious epidemic.  Current technology and economic strength is enough to defeat this one, unlike the last one.  So you either fight it with your entire economy and people, or you surrender and accept a 1% to 10% death rate.

Every country that has stopped or slowed this has fought it with the entire country's might.  Those curves going down where not "oh, the epidemic ran its course", they where the result of massive social distancing and contract tracing and treatment.

This isn't "omg the sky is falling".  This is "how much would you pay to save the lives of 3 to 30 million Americans".  Surrender is an option.  Iran seems to be doing it (and lying about it; the data they publish is pretty transparently faked.)

Surrender, Total War or Pray.  Pick.  Talk to your politicians; local, regional, national.

All 3 are options.  I vote for War.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

This weekend was my city's St. Patrick's Day drinking weekend. The official parade had been cancelled, but that didn't stop hordes of people from going out for drinks starting in the AM and continuing until after dark.

Foolhardy indeed. As if COVID-19 wasn't already spreading like wildfire.

This weekend will mark my first attempt at running D&D online. Going to be trying out the Astral platform. Also, a friend of mine that moved away is talking about running a game online with some friends I haven't played with in years.


----------



## Whizbang Dustyboots

I suspect, by entering into this conversation so late, I am reiterating some of the points used by people I don't actually agree with, accounting for some of the reactions to my posts.

I do believe in taking this situation _very_ seriously. I just don't think that some of the easy comparison points are necessarily the right ones.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> While everybody is locking down and canceling gatherings of people over as little as 5, this happens in the land of the nopal:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mexico Holds Big Music Festival Despite Coronavirus Concerns
> 
> 
> The coronavirus pandemic may have led authorities around the globe to cancel concerts and sporting events, and even shut down daily activities in some places
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnewyork.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GUNS N' ROSES Performs At Mexico City's VIVE LATINO Festival Despite Coronavirus Concerns
> 
> 
> GUNS N' ROSES performed at Mexico City's massive annual music festival Vive Latino Saturday night (March 14) despite thousands of people calling for the event to be canceled in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. At least a dozen of other artists had pulled out of the festival by Saturday...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.blabbermouth.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I can't believe how irresponsible this was, local twitter is using #muerelatino to denounce this.




 It's not any better in the USA there was a picture of Dallas airport crowded with a kid licking the handrail on Reddit.

 Also crowded bars.


----------



## CleverNickName

I'm taking this as seriously as I can.  We aren't under an official quarantine or anything, but I'm doing a lot of no-brainer stuff just to be cautious and courteous.

I've restructured my work so that I can attend meetings remotely, and as of tomorrow I will be working from home 4 out of 5 days a week.  If I don't _need _to be out and about, I don't want to be.
I've set up home delivery for three different grocery stores.  It's worth the $5-10 delivery fee to not have to deal with parking, crowds, and unpredictable inventory.
I set up a Roll20 account for our gaming session this weekend.  We're going to be playing Call of Cthulhu, some of us for the first time, and we are going to be doing it 100% remotely.  *Does anyone have any tips or suggestions for folks who are taking their first trip through Roll20?*
I bought a half-dozen new games off of Steam.  They have some truly ridiculous sales going on right now, especially if you are a fan of JRPGs.
I put a variety of eBooks in my checkout queue at the local library.  I don't quite understand how there can be a queue or even a wait list for eBooks, but here we are.
I dusted off the old Super Nintendo and XBox and got them installed.  Steam is great and all, but sometimes you need to bust out the Dr. Mario or Oblivion.
I picked up a couple of canisters of disinfecting wipes and a couple of boxes of tissue, and refilled our medicine cabinet's supply of prescription and over-the-counter meds.  I figure I'll likely catch what's going around, and I aim to be ready.
I finally installed that new webcam I got for Christmas, and my mom is thrilled that she gets to see my face when she's chatting with me.
And the last one is probably the biggest for me:  I'm limiting my social media exposure to just one platform, and for only 1 hour a day (30 minutes in the morning, and 30 minutes in the evening).  I can only take so much hype and myth in a 24-hour period, and lately I've been hitting the saturation point before I can finish my breakfast.




Your browser is not able to display this video.


----------



## Sacrosanct

San Francisco just announced a three week long lockdown. No leaving your home unless it’s for a doctor, or groceries.  It won’t be the last city to do so, so get prepared.









						In ‘defining moment,’ San Francisco to order residents to stay home over coronavirus
					

Mayor announces drastic measures to curb spread of COVID-19 alongside five other Bay Area counties




					www.sfexaminer.com


----------



## slobster

Sacrosanct said:


> San Francisco just announced a three week long lockdown. No leaving your home unless it’s for a doctor, or groceries.  It won’t be the last city to do so, so get prepared.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In ‘defining moment,’ San Francisco to order residents to stay home over coronavirus
> 
> 
> Mayor announces drastic measures to curb spread of COVID-19 alongside five other Bay Area counties
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.sfexaminer.com



This is about an hour and a half from me, I'm expecting the same here soon. I'm incredibly  concerned about my business, but I'm also supportive of whatever measures need to be taken to save lives.

Hopefully Congress will offer some meaningful relief to small businesses while the government is spending 700 billion on debt buying and 60 billion on airlines. We'll see.


----------



## Zardnaar

A young Zards gateway drug to D&D was Fighting Fantasy and Lone Wolf Gamebooks.

 Zard kept his 90s stuff. 






 Hmmmn.

 Thinking if setting up some vintage gaming. Break out the Dreamcast, Megadrive, GameCube or something.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Zardnaar said:


> A young Zards gateway drug to D&D was Fighting Fantasy and Lone Wolf Gamebooks.
> 
> Zard kept his 90s stuff.
> 
> View attachment 119960
> 
> Hmmmn.
> 
> Thinking if setting up some vintage gaming. Break out the Dreamcast, Megadrive, GameCube or something.





I literally just ordered some lone wolf books that just arrived.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sacrosanct said:


> I literally just ordered some lone wolf books that just arrived.




 Nice a did a playthrough not to long ago. Got to book 16 iirc.

 Might do another one.


----------



## Doug McCrae

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand published by Imperial College London on 16th March 2020. This modelling is currently being used to inform UK government policy.

In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.​


----------



## THEMNGMNT

I live in Los Angeles. My wife and I are making decisions for our family under the assumption that those decisions could be a matter of life and death. On Friday we decided to self-isolate. I expect that in 24 to 48 hours, LA will follow SF and make "shelter in place" mandatory. The US, even with its obviously incompetent leadership, will probably follow within the week (but hopefully sooner). No matter where in the world you live, I encourage you to stay home starting today. It's the best thing you can do for yourself, your loved ones, and your neighbors. It's the best way to fight back.


----------



## NotAYakk

Doug McCrae said:


> Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand published by Imperial College London on 16th March 2020. This modelling is currently being used to inform UK government policy.
> 
> In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.​



And "need ICU or die" is ~5x "dead after attempted treatment in ICU".

And within rounding, every country has 0% ICUs.  Our ICUs are _not built for this_ scale of problem.

Any solution that ends with "and then almost everyone is infected" and doesn't last 10+ years, involve some new trestment, or building many million ICU respirators and blood oxygenators, gets ~5x that death rate roughly.

We fight the epidemic and win, or many, many millions die.

#stayathome - we _can_ beat this thing.  It just won't be easy.


----------



## Doug McCrae

The paper concludes:

We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.​
What "suppression" entails (emphasis mine):

In the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures... The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (*potentially 18 months or more*) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.​​


----------



## Doug McCrae

I dread to think what's going to happen in countries that don't adopt these measures. As @NotAYakk says, the best evidence right now is telling us that many millions will die.


----------



## Zardnaar

UK gave up on the herd plan. 

We just cut 80% of flights to Australia, benefits going up $25 dollars, wage subsidies of $500+ per week. 








						Coronavirus: Government's giant $12.1b scheme will pay for people to stay in work and at home
					

The Government is spraying money everywhere it can to deal with the unprecedented coronavirus shock to keep people in work.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Probably gonna cancel D&D until further notice. Probably be end of campaign realistically.


----------



## Zardnaar

And campaign canceled it's here.




__





						Otago Daily Times Online News
					






					www.odt.co.nz


----------



## Son of the Serpent

Zardnaar said:


> UK gave up on the herd plan.
> 
> We just cut 80% of flights to Australia, benefits going up $25 dollars, wage subsidies of $500+ per week.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: Government's giant $12.1b scheme will pay for people to stay in work and at home
> 
> 
> The Government is spraying money everywhere it can to deal with the unprecedented coronavirus shock to keep people in work.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Probably gonna cancel D&D until further notice. Probably be end of campaign realistically.



Thats sad.  Im sad.

Maybe you could use it as time to prepare a couple of extra fantastic side adventures so that when your group gets back together you come back guns blazing.  With a bang right out of the gate.

I hate seeing good things end...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Some interesting insight on the differences between Italy & S. Korea, and how those differences may impact the results of their efforts.








						Why South Korea has so few coronavirus deaths while Italy has so many | CNN
					

For now it is partly because of vast differences in the affected patients -- young vs. old, smokers vs. not, writes MD and infection specialist Kent Sepkowitz.  Soon it also will be due to another reason.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Also...

Hope it works for long enough!  Regardless, nice out of the box thinking.


----------



## Celebrim

Zardnaar said:


> UK gave up on the herd plan.




Since I estimate from their death clustering that they have about 47000 undocumented cases, that's probably for the best.

The USA is in about the same shape, but at least we are bigger and can absorb that.  But exponential growth no matter how much people see it always surprises human intuition.   There are a few US communities that are going to be shocked by how quickly the situation evolves.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Some interesting insight on the differences between Italy & S. Korea, and how those differences may impact the results of their efforts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why South Korea has so few coronavirus deaths while Italy has so many | CNN
> 
> 
> For now it is partly because of vast differences in the affected patients -- young vs. old, smokers vs. not, writes MD and infection specialist Kent Sepkowitz.  Soon it also will be due to another reason.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com




 Interesting. I remember being told in the 90s women have a better chance of surviving extreme situations. The nurse wasn't to sure if it was genetic or lifestyle though.


----------



## Zardnaar

Celebrim said:


> Since I estimate from their death clustering that they have about 47000 undocumented cases, that's probably for the best.
> 
> The USA is in about the same shape, but at least we are bigger and can absorb that.  But exponential growth no matter how much people see it always surprises human intuition.   There are a few US communities that are going to be shocked by how quickly the situation evolves.




 Yup be interesting in a week.

 San Francisco in lock down.


----------



## HarbingerX

Just watched an epidemiologist say that over the long term the whole population will get exposed. Then it will become another childhood disease like measles or chickenpox. Just need to slow it down enough to prevent a health system collapse to minimize the scale of deaths. Treatments are coming and a vaccine in 18 months.


----------



## Zardnaar

In 1984 the D&D bubble popped. 

 I'm guessing this is gonna be 2.0.


----------



## Sadras

CleverNickName said:


> View attachment 119959




My takeaway is maybe some conspiracy theories are valid - since the dude was not accosted.


----------



## ART!

Zardnaar said:


> In 1984 the D&D bubble popped.
> 
> I'm guessing this is gonna be 2.0.





Not to trivialize, but this is a huge opportunity for virtual tabletop services, and text/audio/video chat services. It could be a boom for them - assuming people have money to spend now that they (in many cases) can't work. So, maybe D&D will thrive.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Now more than other, people need some escapism and social contact. D&D can be played online, and has easily half a dozen dedicated platforms that enable just that. Amazon is still delivering, and of the various FLGS shops I follow on social media, none have closer their doors (though most have ceased any in-game play and events). Sales will probably dip, but I don't think the D&D upswell is going to end so easily.



Zardnaar said:


> In 1984 the D&D bubble popped.
> 
> I'm guessing this is gonna be 2.0.


----------



## akr71

Yes I was thinking the same thing @Ralif Redhammer We are likely moving to online for the time being - a couple one-shots to get the new folks used to it and as we progress, use more of the functionality - even if we just use the VTT for the map and have players still use pen & paper (& honesty) in their home.

I was discussing with one of our group, who occasionally DMs that I felt bad for cancelling the last 2 sessions and should we move online. He agreed that we should give it a try - if anything, it might help with cabin fever.


----------



## MoonSong

Zardnaar said:


> In 1984 the D&D bubble popped.
> 
> I'm guessing this is gonna be 2.0.



On the contrary, times of crisis tend to be gold eras for entertainment. People need time to get away from their troubles.


----------



## robus

MoonSong said:


> On the contrary, times of crisis tend to be gold eras for entertainment. People need time to get away from their troubles.



I just suggested to my daughter that this is probably a good time to start her game with her housebound roommates


----------



## slobster

People will look back on the 20's as the time of the iconic, classic D&D campaign streams catalyzed by the Great Virus Outbreak.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> On the contrary, times of crisis tend to be gold eras for entertainment. People need time to get away from their troubles.




 People won't be buying as much that's bad for WotC. 

 Good for online stuff though.


----------



## Alzrius

Ralif Redhammer said:


> Amazon is still delivering




Such as it is. A book I ordered sat on "pending" for a week, then left its carrier facility to arrive at a neighboring city, which sent it back to the original carrier facility, which sent it _back_ to that same neighboring city! At this point, I'm still waiting on it.

...which I suppose means I'm doing pretty well, since this is the biggest problem I have at the moment.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Ralif Redhammer said:


> Amazon is still delivering...




For more details on what is and is not shipping for the next three+ weeks:









						Amazon’s COVID-19 blog
					

How we’re supporting our employees, customers, and communities




					blog.aboutamazon.com
				




So basically, if it is not already in an Amazon warehouse by today, and is not an essential item, it will not be allowed into the warehouses until early April at the soonest.


----------



## Sacrosanct

From 4 years ago.  Too bad the conspiracy nuts dismissed him as someone who was trying to start a pandemic, and too bad many others dismissed him as just some computer nerd who didn't know what he was talking about.


----------



## Oofta

Sacrosanct said:


> From 4 years ago.  Too bad the conspiracy nuts dismissed him as someone who was trying to start a pandemic, and too bad many others dismissed him as just some computer nerd who didn't know what he was talking about.




The _really _scary thing is that this is relatively mild pandemic.  Imagine if SARS had been as easily transmitted or if we had just buried our heads in the sand back then as well.

Which is not to minimize the current risk particularly with the apparent spread before symptoms become evident.


----------



## slobster

Oofta said:


> The _really _scary thing is that this is relatively mild pandemic.  Imagine if SARS had been as easily transmitted or if we had just buried our heads in the sand back then as well.
> 
> Which is not to minimize the current risk particularly with the apparent spread before symptoms become evident.



Yeah I really think it's worth considering, without minimizing how much of a threat this pandemic is, that our collective lack of preparation for events of this kind could be far, far deadlier. We aren't getting away easy, but as with most things, it could also be much worse, and may be some day.

This feels like the sort of event that catalyzes a real shift in outlook and preparation for an entire generation, but then we are also famously bad at giving a single topic our collective attention for longer than a few news cycles after the crap is actively hitting the fan, so we'll have to see.


----------



## Oofta

slobster said:


> Yeah I really think it's worth considering, without minimizing how much of a threat this pandemic is, that our collective lack of preparation for events of this kind could be far, far deadlier. We aren't getting away easy, but as with most things, it could also be much worse, and may be some day.
> 
> This feels like the sort of event that catalyzes a real shift in outlook and preparation for an entire generation, but then we are also famously bad at giving a single topic our collective attention for longer than a few news cycles after the crap is actively hitting the fan, so we'll have to see.




Hope springs eternal that people will listen _this_ time.  But people have short term memories and if the precautions we're taking now actually help they'll be "See!  It wasn't that bad!"

For better or worse people are generally very bad at risk analysis.  

Hopefully I'm wrong and we take this kind of risk seriously.  This time.


----------



## Zardnaar

Oofta said:


> Hope springs eternal that people will listen _this_ time.  But people have short term memories and if the precautions we're taking now actually help they'll be "See!  It wasn't that bad!"
> 
> For better or worse people are generally very bad at risk analysis.
> 
> Hopefully I'm wrong and we take this kind of risk seriously.  This time.




 People will just want to go back to business as usual.

 Same reason people live near active volcanoes.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Sacrosanct said:


> From 4 years ago.  Too bad the conspiracy nuts dismissed him as someone who was trying to start a pandemic, and too bad many others dismissed him as just some computer nerd who didn't know what he was talking about.



Yeah, can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard “Nobody could have predicted this!”

Except...MOST medical professionals knowledgeable in this area been predicting it for years.  My Dad & I discuss this annually, almost.  And Dr. Fauci was testifying in DC in 2018 about how a flu or flu-like contagion was the thing he feared most in terms of possible pandemics.  

While other diseases have higher mortality rates or are more infectious, their outbreaks tend to burn out more quickly as victims start dying before passing it along and the community around them tends to keep a distance, further limiting possibility of spreading the disease.  Most also don’t seem to last long outside of living hosts.

Flus and similar ailments, OTOH, typically don’t kill quickly enough or in percentages high enough to really scare people, so the odds of being exposed to an ill person go way up.


----------



## Oofta

Zardnaar said:


> People will just want to go back to business as usual.
> 
> Same reason people live near active volcanoes.



 Yep, optimism bias often leads to willful ignorance.

At least zombies aren't real.  Right?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Oofta said:


> Hope springs eternal that people will listen _this_ time.  But people have short term memories and if the precautions we're taking now actually help they'll be "See!  It wasn't that bad!"
> 
> For better or worse people are generally very bad at risk analysis.
> 
> Hopefully I'm wrong and we take this kind of risk seriously.  This time.



I share your hope, but after reading about Coronavirus Truthers...


----------



## Oofta

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I share your hope, but after reading about Coronavirus Truthers...



Yeah, someone from work was chatting about their parents still doing bingo and planning a fish fry for this weekend.  It was safe because it was just people from the church.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Oofta said:


> Yeah, someone from work was chatting about their parents still doing bingo and planning a fish fry for this weekend.  It was safe because it was just people from the church.




Someone should tell them about South Korea, where a Church was an epicenter for the virus


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Oofta said:


> Yeah, someone from work was chatting about their parents still doing bingo and planning a fish fry for this weekend.  It was safe because it was just people from the church.




The thing is that it _could be_ safe if no one from their church has traveled out of the area or had anyone come visit from out of the area for the past few weeks. But explaining the difference between "could be" and "is not" does not work so well with a lot of people.

I live in the US, in Virginia, and all the known cases are in parts of the state, or in bordering states, nowhere near me, so most stuff here is still "business as usual" for a lot of people. I work in food delivery, so I will be working til the state forces us to close, which seems unlikely right now, as it seems most states want takeout and delivery food to stay available, since this is a regular source of meals for so many people.


----------



## Oofta

If we had widespread testing easily and freely available, it would be a different story. But even in rural areas, people go on vacation, delivery people come in from out of town, people get infected without being sick enough to even realize they're sick.

While the Spanish flu was deadlier, a common pattern was that small isolated towns merely delayed the spread of the disease.  Once it started spreading it was in many ways worse than in some larger communities.  The world is a lot more connected now than it used to be.

On the other hand, I get it.  I'm isolating myself for now ... but how long will it last? If it's a year or more before we have an effective vaccine are we really going to shut down for the next year or two?  Or do we just do our best to flatten the curve and accept that most people are going to get it sometime this year and hope for the best?

Oh well, enough depressing thoughts. I've got to write up an adventure and play around with Roll20 for my home campaign going online for a while.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Some experts are suggesting 18-24 months of _certain_ restrictions because they think Covid-19 might bounce between the Northern & Southern hemispheres for a bit.

This means that Covid-19 _will _reshape modern society as much as the 1918 flu did before it.

Perhaps the western handshake will die out, replaced with the namaste...


----------



## slobster

Oofta said:


> Hope springs eternal that people will listen _this_ time.  But people have short term memories and if the precautions we're taking now actually help they'll be "See!  It wasn't that bad!"
> 
> For better or worse people are generally very bad at risk analysis.
> 
> Hopefully I'm wrong and we take this kind of risk seriously.  This time.



I'm also worried that the lesson a lot of people will learn will be something to the effect of "China is bad and evil and this is all their fault," as opposed to anything on the disease preparation front. 

I mean, China's government are jerks, and they botched the initial response badly out of self interest and desire to maintain good media narratives...which is beginning to sound a little familiar. So while they should shoulder some blame, they were victims as well (the first victims, meaning we theoretically should have had time to learn from their epidemic and prepare for our own) and we are learning firsthand how hard it can be to get it right.

But having a good scapegoat can be real attractive when otherwise people would start asking about why we weren't ready, and who here in this country might shoulder some of the blame.


----------



## robus

slobster said:


> I'm also worried that the lesson a lot of people will learn will be something to the effect of "China is bad and evil and this is all their fault," as opposed to anything on the disease preparation front.



To be fair, they have sourced a disproportionate number of outbreaks in recent years. Their wet markets need to be permanently closed for example. I don‘t think that’s much to ask after causing a global recession?

And the close captivity wild animal breeding also needs to be sorted. Just basic modern hygiene and animal husbandry would be appreciated.


----------



## slobster

robus said:


> To be fair, they have sourced a disproportionate number of outbreaks in recent years. Their wet markets need to be permanently closed for example. I don‘t think that’s much to ask after causing a global recession?



Right, they totally deserve criticism for their handling of the virus. They did a bad job, and the misinformation they are putting out there right now is pretty bad and inflammatory, too.

But the outbreak here in the US has more than a single cause, and there were plenty of people who should have known better and should have been preparing. They didn't, clearly. The fact that we lag the world in per capita testing is just one part of that, the loud and persistent minimizing of the threat the virus posed by senior voices in politics and the media were also incredibly detrimental.

There are a lot of lessons we should learn from this pandemic. Learning those lessons well should permit us to mitigate our risk from a future pandemic. But I'm worried that, rather than learn any of those lessons about our own shortfalls, we will be much more likely to simply blame China entirely, ignoring our own culpability because hey jingoism is so much more satisfying than introspection.


----------



## Oofta

slobster said:


> Right, they totally deserve criticism for their handling of the virus. They did a bad job, and the misinformation they are putting out there right now is pretty bad and inflammatory, too.
> 
> But the outbreak here in the US has more than a single cause, and there were plenty of people who should have known better and should have been preparing. They didn't, clearly. The fact that we lag the world in per capita testing is just one part of that, the loud and persistent minimizing of the threat the virus posed by senior voices in politics and the media were also incredibly detrimental.
> 
> There are a lot of lessons we should learn from this pandemic. Learning those lessons well should permit us to mitigate our risk from a future pandemic. But I'm worried that, rather than learn any of those lessons about our own shortfalls, we will be much more likely to simply blame China entirely, ignoring our own culpability because hey jingoism is so much more satisfying than introspection.




Easier to blame that "foreign virus" than to take responsibility and make even minor sacrifices or accept that there's some things only the government can do to prevent the inevitable future outbreaks.


----------



## HarbingerX

Oofta said:


> Hope springs eternal that people will listen _this_ time.  But people have short term memories and if the precautions we're taking now actually help they'll be "See!  It wasn't that bad!"
> 
> For better or worse people are generally very bad at risk analysis.
> 
> Hopefully I'm wrong and we take this kind of risk seriously.  This time.




Yep. Like everyone who said Y2K was overblown. They have no idea how much was work was done.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Some experts are suggesting 18-24 months of _certain_ restrictions because they think Covid-19 might bounce between the Northern & Southern hemispheres for a bit.
> 
> This means that Covid-19 _will _reshape modern society as much as the 1918 flu did before it.
> 
> Perhaps the western handshake will die out, replaced with the namaste...




 I pointed out in another forum there may be no vacine and Covid could be recurring. 

 If that's the case it will have to be business as usual eventually. 

 But it's going to be the great leap backwards to grandparents day when small pox and polio were around.

 Got bored so are looking up how things used to be done including authoritarian regimes. 

 The virus is also on China with the wet markets. It's a total failure of basic standards. China was cut out of the world market back in the day (pre 1973). 

 To early to say what the way forward is. I have my suspicions ranging from government interventions, wartime rationing and command economies.


----------



## THEMNGMNT

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> The thing is that it _could be_ safe if no one from their church has traveled out of the area or had anyone come visit from out of the area for the past few weeks. But explaining the difference between "could be" and "is not" does not work so well with a lot of people.
> 
> I live in the US, in Virginia, and all the known cases are in parts of the state, or in bordering states, nowhere near me, so most stuff here is still "business as usual" for a lot of people. I work in food delivery, so I will be working til the state forces us to close, which seems unlikely right now, as it seems most states want takeout and delivery food to stay available, since this is a regular source of meals for so many people.



Unfortunately, this is not correct. I wish it were, but it's not. Because we in the United States do not have testing at scale, we simply don't know who has it, where they are, or how they got it. So the assumption that only people from outside the community have it is wishful thinking. 

Scientists say for every case detected, 5 to 10 cases are undetected. They also say that the number of cases double every 2 to 3 days. 

Virginia, at the time I type this, has 67 declared cases. But it likely has over 500 cases today, this very moment. And by next Monday it will have a few thousand cases, perhaps more, most of them undiagnosed. 

For the record, I live in LA, and the county has 140 confirmed cases. Now do the above math and imagine how bad next week is going to look, and the week after that, and the week after that.

Events are moving fast. Much faster than most of us can comprehend. You should assume "business as usual" is over and and be prepared to shelter in place in a matter of days. You should also assume that your likelihood of coming into contact with someone who is infected is growing quickly. Take measures now to protect yourself, your loved ones, and your community. Each day we fail to act results in more infections...and more fatalities.

I know I sound like a crazy person. I'm not. The person you are today, I was a week ago. And in a week, you're going to be me.


----------



## Zardnaar

Meanwhile where I live.









						Coronavirus: Uni students hold massive flat party 200m from closed high school
					

Hundreds of Dunedin uni students at a flat party were told by the DJ they were all "getting f...ing coronavirus".




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




Gamestore pulled the plug on all D&D groups. I had already cancelled along with half the other groups.

Partying like it's 1999 I mean March 8th


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Re: xenophobia


----------



## ad_hoc

Not sure if this has been posted.

It is an interactive graph showing the effectiveness of social distancing.

Particularly interesting to me is how impactful changes at the 10-30% range are (where 0% is no effort and 100% is total isolation).



			The math behind flatten the curve


----------



## robus

slobster said:


> Right, they totally deserve criticism for their handling of the virus. They did a bad job, and the misinformation they are putting out there right now is pretty bad and inflammatory, too.



But it’s not just that, there are common practices in China that exacerbate the risk and that should stop. Absolutely agree that our response was utterly inept, but even countries that weren’t asleep at the wheel have suffered badly.

Definitely policy changes to be made worldwide, but an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of quarantine.


----------



## Coroc

ad_hoc said:


> Not sure if this has been posted.
> 
> It is an interactive graph showing the effectiveness of social distancing.
> 
> Particularly interesting to me is how impactful changes at the 10-30% range are (where 0% is no effort and 100% is total isolation).
> 
> 
> 
> The math behind flatten the curve




Now that one is really interesting, hopefully the effects are like in this graph simulation then the world might have a chance. I fear a bit for the economical impact also.
I think time is a critical thing in all aspects here. If any kind of shutdown lasts to long people might get crazy.


----------



## NotAYakk

ad_hoc said:


> Not sure if this has been posted.
> 
> It is an interactive graph showing the effectiveness of social distancing.
> 
> Particularly interesting to me is how impactful changes at the 10-30% range are (where 0% is no effort and 100% is total isolation).
> 
> 
> 
> The math behind flatten the curve



Lovely graph.

But the actual health care system capacity is closer to 0.1% of the population than 15%.

Because 5% of the people sick need 3 weeks of respirator care.

And the USA has 65000 of them.  Imagine they (a) scrounge up 20k more, and (b) kick everyone on them off so they are all usable for Covid19.

85k/5% is 1.7 million people sick.  But those 5% need 3 weeks of care, so the most you can handle per day is about 81,000.

81,000/300 million is, carry the two, well 0 within rounding error.  And while that is a joke, it is also true: in order to flatten the curve to stay under healthcare capacity, we need the curve to stretch for a crazy number like 10 years.

To beat this, we need capacity (millions of respirators and technicians) or a vaccine, and we have to accept this isn't going to end soon.

In any case, Iran is about to show us what happens when you are hit by this epidemic and do nothing to stop it.  80*.05 is 16.  I hope my math is wrong.


----------



## ad_hoc

NotAYakk said:


> Lovely graph.
> 
> But the actual health care system capacity is closer to 0.1% of the population than 15%.
> 
> Because 5% of the people sick need 3 weeks of respirator care.
> 
> And the USA has 65000 of them.  Imagine they (a) scrounge up 20k more, and (b) kick everyone on them off so they are all usable for Covid19.
> 
> 85k/5% is 1.7 million people sick.  But those 5% need 3 weeks of care, so the most you can handle per day is about 81,000.
> 
> 81,000/300 million is, carry the two, well 0 within rounding error.  And while that is a joke, it is also true: in order to flatten the curve to stay under healthcare capacity, we need the curve to stretch for a crazy number like 10 years.
> 
> To beat this, we need capacity (millions of respirators and technicians) or a vaccine, and we have to accept this isn't going to end soon.
> 
> In any case, Iran is about to show us what happens when you are hit by this epidemic and do nothing to stop it.  80*.05 is 16.  I hope my math is wrong.




Well, to start, it's about Canada.

Not sure how prepared Canada is vs the US.

However, I doubt the mathematicians completely screwed up how much the health care system can handle by orders of magnitude.

It must mean something different than how you're reading it.


----------



## Harzel

Sacrosanct said:


> Someone should tell them about South Korea, where a Church was an epicenter for the virus




Well, that was a _foreign_ church attended by _foreigners. _ And we all know foreigners are _different_ and likely disease-ridden by nature.  That can't happen here.

</sarcasm> (Just to be clear.)


----------



## HarbingerX

ad_hoc said:


> Well, to start, it's about Canada.
> 
> Not sure how prepared Canada is vs the US.
> 
> However, I doubt the mathematicians completely screwed up how much the health care system can handle by orders of magnitude.
> 
> It must mean something different than how you're reading it.




The Canadian government has been all over this right from the start. One province alone has done more testing that then entire US. So the reported Canadian numbers are probably more accurate, but the virus still got into community transmission. We had a lot of cases coming in from Iran (large expat community here) and the US. And the problem is that we share a massive border that we really can't afford to close with the USA, which is doing a pretty dire (_see what I did there?_) job of tracking.

Even with all that prep work, we're still getting 33% daily growth and will be just as overwhelmed in 3 weeks time if nothing changes. However, we're all pretty much self isolating starting end of last week across the country; so we'll know how bad we're going to have it in 2-3 weeks.

If Trump closes the border however, our economy will implode.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> Lovely graph.
> 
> But the actual health care system capacity is closer to 0.1% of the population than 15%.
> 
> Because 5% of the people sick need 3 weeks of respirator care.
> 
> And the USA has 65000 of them.  Imagine they (a) scrounge up 20k more, and (b) kick everyone on them off so they are all usable for Covid19.
> 
> 85k/5% is 1.7 million people sick.  But those 5% need 3 weeks of care, so the most you can handle per day is about 81,000.
> 
> 81,000/300 million is, carry the two, well 0 within rounding error.  And while that is a joke, it is also true: in order to flatten the curve to stay under healthcare capacity, we need the curve to stretch for a crazy number like 10 years.
> 
> To beat this, we need capacity (millions of respirators and technicians) or a vaccine, and we have to accept this isn't going to end soon.
> 
> In any case, Iran is about to show us what happens when you are hit by this epidemic and do nothing to stop it.  80*.05 is 16.  I hope my math is wrong.




Iran has a young population.

It might also be an example of where everyone is in a few months. You can't sustain a lockdown for more than a few weeks, 2-3 months tops and I think that's optimistic.

The choices are bad, worse, awful, and aw crap.

Venezuela is also gonna be another case study.

 There's no civil society as such in China and what exists has been corrupted by the CCP.  They may have done the modern equivalent of bricking people up inside their houses.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

slobster said:


> People will look back on the 20's as the time of the iconic, classic D&D campaign streams catalyzed by the Great Virus Outbreak.



Nah.  3 and everything before 3 will probably always be looked as iconic d&d (different parts of each edition)

4th and 5th i dont think will look iconic to anyone.  3 barely is part of that.

4 and 5 both represent a major shift in the gaming culture.

2 and 3 obviously were major departures in their own way but its not the same.

Corona virus wont be considered a major influence on anything realistically.  Its no cold war (pun intended)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hoarder update!

THIS makes a bunch of sense.


----------



## Zardnaar

No D&D but I dug these out. I own plenty of d10s.






  Party like it's 1985. Found my Megadrive games, not sure where the console is. Found the NES as well buy only Super Mario 3.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Hoarder update!
> 
> THIS makes a bunch of sense.




Lol I live near a port and did a stocktake last year. At any time there's around 2-300 million dollars of milk powder there. 25 kg bags, 72 to a pallet piled 5 or 6 high filling 2 or 3 stadium's.

And that's just the local area produce less than 10% of the countries supply.

Basically we can feed ourselves plus Australia and people are panic buying.

It's not strip the shelves yet though.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Hoarder update!
> 
> THIS makes a bunch of sense.



She's gonna be i*rate* when she gets home and realizes she forgot the bread for all that french toast.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Lol I live near a port and did a stocktake last year. At any time there's around 2-300 million dollars of milk powder there. 25 kg bags, 72 to a pallet piled 5 or 6 high filling 2 or 3 stadium's.
> 
> And that's just the local area produce less than 10% of the countries supply.
> 
> Basically we can feed ourselves plus Australia and people are panic buying.
> 
> It's not strip the shelves yet though.



It’s Zoidberg’s Sandwich all over again.


If they’re hoarders, it’s a facepalm moment.  If they’re profiteers, their comeuppance will be swift and stinky.  I mean, I’m a dairy _fiend_ and I could wait these jokers out.


----------



## robus

I’m leaving this thread because the rolling impacts of this pandemic are making me really angry, people are losing their lives and livelihoods and no one knows when things are going to get back to normal.

I’ve got nothing productive to contribute.

It’s really cataclysmic!

Please stay safe everyone and good luck. We’re going to need it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

It’s amazing how much of the news is like:

coronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronavirusTOMBRADYLEAVINGPATIOTScoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronavirus


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s amazing how much of the news is like:
> 
> coronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronavirusTOMBRADYLEAVINGPATIOTScoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronaviruscoronavirus




 I'ma just watching YouTube clips. Have to venture out just avoiding crowds. Go to supermarket late and really early. 

 Wonder if I should do a virtual tour in the off topic area on YouTube.


----------



## FrogReaver

Seems to me that for the immediate future now is the safest time to go to the grocery stores.  After 2 more weeks of exponential growth seems a lot more risky.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Grocery stores near me were saner than the last time.  Oh, here was still evidence of panic buying, but the crowds were borderline normal.

Hell, when I got to the front, I was immediately waved over by a checker with no customers.


----------



## Zardnaar

Went in at 7:30 pm just to compare vs our normal early morning shop.

Plenty of toilet paper and towels.

Canned food and similar things taken a hit. No bread but that's not to unusual at night.

Pallets of canned goods and pasta though. Maybe they're not sticking shelves and just putting it in the open sections.

Bought last packet of powdered milk. Sweet chilli sauce gone. No normal flour, got some self raising flour.

Emptied the cupboards and threw out persishibles.  Found 4 month expired breakfast cereal tasted alright so put it into rotation.









Ironically low stocks of deodorant and toothpaste, feminine products.

Gotta smell nice for the apocalypse hiding in your toilet paper fort.

 Also sold out of paracetamol, was on the shelves last Thursday suggested we buy some got naughty word down. 

This week "wish they had Panadol".


----------



## NotAYakk

The point of social distancing isn't to reduce risk for you, it is to drop R0.

"I should risk it now when it is less risky than later" is sort of upside down.  We are trying to not risk it now so that later it is less risky.

If it works, _now_ (near the start of social distancing) is the riskiest time.  Both because R0 drops under 1.0 (so it becomes more rare under distancing), and because the 2-3 week delayed spike overloading the medical system will just hit when you have to go to the hospital if you get a moderate to severe case.

For most people, the point of social distancing isn't to protect them it is to prevent them from catching then spreading it, and overloading the medical system.  So the goal is to get R0 down, not "not catch it".  Which is abstract, and leads to you not catching it.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Plenty of toilet paper and towels.




As of yesterday afternoon in my area, across two groceries: no paper towels or toilet tissue to be found.  No flour, white sugar, yeast or chemical leaveners.  No pasta.  No frozen vegetables.  The only chicken to be found were wings.


----------



## FrogReaver

NotAYakk said:


> The point of social distancing isn't to reduce risk for you, it is to drop R0.
> 
> "I should risk it now when it is less risky than later" is sort of upside down.  We are trying to not risk it now so that later it is less risky.
> 
> If it works, _now_ (near the start of social distancing) is the riskiest time.  Both because R0 drops under 1.0 (so it becomes more rare under distancing), and because the 2-3 week delayed spike overloading the medical system will just hit when you have to go to the hospital if you get a moderate to severe case.
> 
> For most people, the point of social distancing isn't to protect them it is to prevent them from catching then spreading it, and overloading the medical system.  So the goal is to get R0 down, not "not catch it".  Which is abstract, and leads to you not catching it.




If I’m going to have to go out it’s better for everyone if I do so early then later when there is a lot more that have it in my area.  There’s less chance of me getting it this way which is less chance of me spreading it this way - aka lower r0. How can you argue anything else?


----------



## HarbingerX

For those interested, a preliminary version of this study reportedly convinced the UK and US to change their more cavalier approach to the outbreak. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand

Most of the details are UK-focused.


----------



## HarbingerX

FrogReaver said:


> If I’m going to have to go out it’s better for everyone if I do so early then later when there is a lot more that have it in my area.  There’s less chance of me getting it this way which is less chance of me spreading it this way - aka lower r0. How can you argue anything else?




If everyone does that, then it continues to spread. Later there will be more recovered patients lessening the chance of transmission.


----------



## FrogReaver

HarbingerX said:


> If everyone does that, then it continues to spread. Later there will be more recovered patients lessening the chance of transmission.




if everyone waits till 2 weeks from now when their supplies get low it will contribute to even more spreading.

If everyone would stay at home for the next 2 weeks then your proposal makes sense - but that’s not the way it works in the real world.


----------



## HarbingerX

If everyone is isolating for 2 weeks, then those who are infected but currently not symptomatic will become symptomatic or recover. So 2 weeks from now, those who are *currently infected* but are yet to become sick will *not* be among those going outside.

This is how it works in the real world.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Yeah, it was weird how at the store yesterday, there was still plenty of meat, but no chicken.  It was all gone.  I'm guessing they don't get shipments of chicken in as much as every other meat, because it doesn't make a lot of sense for everyone t to buy up the chicken but not any other kind of meat.


----------



## Garthanos

HarbingerX said:


> If everyone is isolating for 2 weeks, then those who are infected but currently not symptomatic will become symptomatic or recover. So 2 weeks from now, those who are *currently infected* but are yet to become sick will *not* be among those going outside.
> 
> This is how it works in the real world.



two weeks is the best estimate a month might be more cautious.


----------



## seebs

The basic strategy is (1) go out, (2) get enough food for 2 weeks, (3) don't go out for two weeks. If you get infected, by two weeks you're no longer contagious again.


----------



## Garthanos

Sacrosanct said:


> Yeah, it was weird how at the store yesterday, there was still plenty of meat, but no chicken.  It was all gone.  I'm guessing they don't get shipments of chicken in as much as every other meat, because it doesn't make a lot of sense for everyone t to buy up the chicken but not any other kind of meat.



chicken is cheaper... and bought in quantity people pay even more attention to immediate impact


----------



## FrogReaver

Garthanos said:


> two weeks is the best estimate a month might be more cautious.




1.  Not everyone shows symptoms.
2.  How many people have 2 weeks to a months worth of supplies at this point. My bet is very few.
3.  How long do you remain contagious if you have the virus. 2 weeks?  1 month?

Which implies that the lowest risk time to stock up is now. Get a months worth of supplies if possible. Then don’t go out again for a month.

There’s just too many people where this is not a reasonable strategy though - finances, work etc.  Which comes back to - the best time for anyone to shop is now.


----------



## Garthanos

FrogReaver said:


> 1.  Not everyone shows symptoms.
> 2.  How many people have 2 weeks to a months worth of supplies at this point. My bet is very few.
> 3.  How long do you remain contagious if you have the virus. 2 weeks?  1 month?
> 
> Which implies that the lowest risk time to stock up is now. Get a months worth of supplies if possible. Then don’t go out again for a month.
> 
> There’s just too many people where this is not a reasonable strategy though - finances, work etc.  Which comes back to - the best time for anyone to shop is now.



Agree entirely two weeks is not enough


----------



## slobster

My area finally got the shelter in place order, all non-essential movement outside of the home is cancelled. My job is one of those considered "essential" so I'll be out, but it's getting real.

I've been trying to get in touch with our county health office to offer to set up a drive-through testing clinic, as our lab can collect swabs and run tests. Haven't been able to get in touch with anyone or get more than a cursory call-back, which is understandable in some ways but deeply frustrating.

Gonna be a long day, I wish everyone the best. Follow the public health advisories. Be careful, but not panicky. My family generally buys staples in bulk so we have many pounds of rice, beans, and frozen meat from long before the pandemic, so I'll be calling friends in the area to see if anyone needs a little extra.


----------



## NotAYakk

FrogReaver said:


> If I’m going to have to go out it’s better for everyone if I do so early then later when there is a lot more that have it in my area.  There’s less chance of me getting it this way which is less chance of me spreading it this way - aka lower r0. How can you argue anything else?



Let's do a toy model.  This model is a toy just because it makes it easier to do the math

In this toy model, people get sick at the start of a week (depending on how risky they are), and spread at the end of the week (ditto).

There are 1000 people.  They start off with 100 infected.  In simulation 1 they do Risk 2 first, then Risk 0.5, then Risk 0.5

In simulation 2, they do Risk 0.5, Risk 2, Risk 0.5.  Delaying risk.

New infections.

200 150 225 in sim 1.
50 300 225 in sim 2.

Sim 2 has a delayed spike.  This matters.  And the same number of cases at the end.

With exponential growth, early actions have magnified consequences.

But a*b*c is the same value as b*c*a.  In the end, it doesn't matter, but we are hoping that we get the _spike_ down so our health care systems don't break.  As much social distancing was close to too late, getting the initial spike down is key to not overloading ICU beds.

4 weeks after that the initial spike of ICU bed use will start falling, and infections _then_ could matter less than infections _now_.


----------



## Mirtek

Wow, this toilet paper thing was predicted long ago:


----------



## seebs

FrogReaver said:


> 3.  How long do you remain contagious if you have the virus. 2 weeks?  1 month?




Research so far says 6-10 days, after which you may still be shedding virus but researchers have been unable to get the resulting virus to infect anything or grow in cultures. So two weeks already _has_ some safety margin.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> 3.  How long do you remain contagious if you have the virus. 2 weeks?  1 month?




So, what I've been able to find says the following:  
Let us say you are exposed to the virus.
If you are infected, you become contagious within 24 to 48 hours.  This virus does not seem to lie dormant for significant time.
You may then be contagious for up to two weeks without showing symptoms.
If you do not show symptoms in that period the likelihood is that you were not infected at all, or were infected and had such a mild case that no symptoms were noted.  In any case, at that point you are unlikely to be able to infect anyone.

If you do show symptoms, I don't know how long after they abate you are considered "safe".


----------



## slobster

Mirtek said:


> Wow, this toilet paper thing was predicted long ago



I'm old enough to remember those people before Y2K on morning news shows bragging about how they were preparing for the apocalypse by buying garages full of toilet paper. The reasons were never clear back then, either!


----------



## seebs

Umbran said:


> So, what I've been able to find says the following:
> Let us say you are exposed to the virus.
> If you are infected, you become contagious within 24 to 48 hours.  This virus does not seem to lie dormant for significant time.
> You may then be contagious for up to two weeks without showing symptoms.
> If you do not show symptoms in that period the likelihood is that you were not infected at all, or were infected and had such a mild case that no symptoms were noted.  In any case, at that point you are unlikely to be able to infect anyone.
> 
> If you do show symptoms, I don't know how long after they abate you are considered "safe".




As I understand it, by the time the symptoms are _getting better_, you're probably no longer contagious, but don't rely on my vague memory/understanding.


----------



## HarbingerX

FrogReaver said:


> 1.  Not everyone shows symptoms.
> 2.  How many people have 2 weeks to a months worth of supplies at this point. My bet is very few.
> 3.  How long do you remain contagious if you have the virus. 2 weeks?  1 month?
> 
> Which implies that the lowest risk time to stock up is now. Get a months worth of supplies if possible. Then don’t go out again for a month.
> 
> There’s just too many people where this is not a reasonable strategy though - finances, work etc.  Which comes back to - the best time for anyone to shop is now.




I do actually agree with you stocking up now. In fact you should have stocked up last week. I was just answering the question as to why the risk of transmission is lower later when the population is self isolating. 

I also agree that 2 weeks is on the lower end. As long as there are people not isolating. The next big risk will be when infection rate begins to drop and people start breaking the isolation and a new population of infected but non-symptomatic people is formed.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Let's do a toy model.




Yes, but there's a point in this that is missing, but relevant to the discussion at hand - what kind of contact engages the risk factor?

Hanging out in a bar or restaurant, shoulder-to-shoulder with others, for a couple of hours likely does.

Walking through a sparsely populated grocery store, passing within three feet of individuals only momentarily, touching only the items you intend to take home, probably does not.

Which is to say that if you intend to go grocery shopping once every couple of weeks, it doesn't really matter when you go - the one trip doesn't pose a whole lot of risk of spread.  You should not be going to the grocery _every day_, because each trip is a risk, and they add up.


----------



## HarbingerX

Umbran said:


> Yes, but there's a point in this that is missing, but relevant to the discussion at hand - what kind of contact engages the risk factor?
> 
> Hanging out in a bar or restaurant, shoulder-to-shoulder with others, for a couple of hours likely does.
> 
> Walking through a sparsely populated grocery store, passing within three feet of individuals only momentarily, touching only the items you intend to take home, probably does not.
> 
> Which is to say that if you intend to go grocery shopping once every couple of weeks, it doesn't really matter when you go - the one trip doesn't pose a whole lot of risk of spread.  You should not be going to the grocery _every day_, because each trip is a risk, and they add up.




This picture from Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve shows the risk for different events based on 2000 or 20000 cases in the general population.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Yesterday was probably my last trip outside the house (other than walking the dog and going for walks around the neighborhood and woods) for a while. Stopped by the FLGS and the local Asian grocer/restaurant to get take-out and some groceries. Two packs of natto, amongst other things, because priorities.

Still looking at which platform to use for online gaming. Pretty much leaning towards Teams or Discord. Since I run TotM, the dedicated ones seem to be offering more than I really need. A/V is the primary thing, though some background tunes wouldn't go awry.


----------



## FrogReaver

NotAYakk said:


> Let's do a toy model.  This model is a toy just because it makes it easier to do the math
> 
> In this toy model, people get sick at the start of a week (depending on how risky they are), and spread at the end of the week (ditto).
> 
> There are 1000 people.  They start off with 100 infected.  In simulation 1 they do Risk 2 first, then Risk 0.5, then Risk 0.5
> 
> In simulation 2, they do Risk 0.5, Risk 2, Risk 0.5.  Delaying risk.
> 
> New infections.
> 
> 200 150 225 in sim 1.
> 50 300 225 in sim 2.
> 
> Sim 2 has a delayed spike.  This matters.  And the same number of cases at the end.
> 
> With exponential growth, early actions have magnified consequences.
> 
> But a*b*c is the same value as b*c*a.  In the end, it doesn't matter, but we are hoping that we get the _spike_ down so our health care systems don't break.  As much social distancing was close to too late, getting the initial spike down is key to not overloading ICU beds.
> 
> 4 weeks after that the initial spike of ICU bed use will start falling, and infections _then_ could matter less than infections _now_.




Let’s do another model. Where 1/2 of the population isolated immediately for 2 weeks and the others shop on and off over the next 3 weeks.

Am I less likely to get the virus and transmit it if i shop now, during week 1 or during week 2?


----------



## NotAYakk

FrogReaver said:


> Let’s do another model. Where 1/2 of the population isolated immediately for 2 weeks and the others shop on and off over the next 3 weeks.
> 
> Am I less likely to get the virus and transmit it if i shop now, during week 1 or during week 2?



Is R0 in that situation 1.0 or not?  Do people self-isolate better once they have symptoms?

But, using reasonable assumptions, it is likely you are more likely to get it and spread it _now_, but getting it _now_ and spreading it _now_ is _worse_ for the population and health care system.

Imagine you hit the emergency button and got the epidemic under control just in time.  In 4-8 weeks your health care system is going to be maxed out with ICU usage.  And that measures are bringing R0 down below 1 effectively.

If you get an infection or spread it _now_, you add to that spike.  If you do actions that could spread it in 2-4 weeks, you add _less_ to that spike; you add it to the falling action after the heath care system overload.

In a strange way, risky behavior doesn't matter if you have or catch covid 19 from it (!)  The product of risky behavior over the population over time determines how much covid 19 spreads.


----------



## HarbingerX

FrogReaver said:


> Let’s do another model. Where 1/2 of the population isolated immediately for 2 weeks and the others shop on and off over the next 3 weeks.
> 
> Am I less likely to get the virus and transmit it if i shop now, during week 1 or during week 2?




If only 1/2 the population isolates then it's not much better than no isolation. 

Stop doing models and posts - go get your supplies.


----------



## FrogReaver

NotAYakk said:


> Is R0 in that situation 1.0 or not?  Do people self-isolate better once they have symptoms?
> 
> But, using reasonable assumptions, it is likely you are more likely to get it and spread it _now_, but getting it _now_ and spreading it _now_ is _worse_ for the population and health care system.
> 
> Imagine you hit the emergency button and got the epidemic under control just in time.  In 4-8 weeks your health care system is going to be maxed out with ICU usage.  And that measures are bringing R0 down below 1 effectively.
> 
> If you get an infection or spread it _now_, you add to that spike.  If you do actions that could spread it in 2-4 weeks, you add _less_ to that spike; you add it to the falling action after the heath care system overload.
> 
> In a strange way, risky behavior doesn't matter if you have or catch covid 19 from it (!)  The product of risky behavior over the population over time determines how much covid 19 spreads.




thanks for proving the point by not answering the question


----------



## Nebulous

I'm anticipating six months of quarantine until September.    I hope I'm really, really wrong.


----------



## FrogReaver

Nebulous said:


> I'm anticipating six months of quarantine until September.    I hope I'm really, really wrong.




maybe 6 months of social distancing. You should be able to go outevery 2-4 weeks to restock up on supplies


----------



## Oofta

Nebulous said:


> I'm anticipating six months of quarantine until September.    I hope I'm really, really wrong.



Some epidemiologists recommend that we basically quarantine ourselves until a vaccine is widely available in 1.5-2 years.

I don't know how long people will put up with the social isolation though, at a certain point I suspect that it will only be the vulnerable few who stay isolated.  I suspect that unless it's really, really bad most people will put up with 2-4 weeks.

Especially because there's no guarantee there will _ever_ be an effective vaccine.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Is R0 in that situation 1.0 or not?




R0 is a broad statistical measure of how many others a carrier will infect in a population, overall.  It does not really speak to, "what is my chance of catching (and thus spreading) during a specific trip to a grocery store".

The graph shown by HarbingerX is nice, though it doesn't adjust for local variation - it is also broad, over the population.  You don't expect it to be a good estimate for people living in a hotspot.  And even then, it gives you the odds of a carrier being present, not about what it takes for you to pick it up.

People need to eat.  Folks will have to shop when they need to shop. For the most part, their timing will be based more on their needs - they won't have much option to choose unless they were far ahead of the game.  When you are out of essentials, you are going shopping.  Sitting home malnourished will not reduce risk of transmission, after all

Given that shopping has to happen, I would imagine that exactly what portion of the epidemic you go in is less important than whether you can minimize your exposure when you do go - if you are standing for 20 minutes in a crown at checkout, that's bad.  If you are in and out swiftly, that's better.


----------



## Umbran

Oofta said:


> Some epidemiologists recommend that we basically quarantine ourselves until a vaccine is widely available in 1.5-2 years.
> 
> I don't know how long people will put up with the social isolation though




Whether or not people can put up with it, socially, economically, quarantine for that long just isn't feasible.


----------



## Garthanos

Oofta said:


> Especially because there's no guarantee there will _ever_ be an effective vaccine.



No guarantee but the docs seem confident that this is very approachable.


----------



## Oofta

Garthanos said:


> No guarantee but the docs seem confident that this is very approachable.




Yeah, in a way we're lucky and a lot of progress has been made in the war against viruses.

I am cautiously optimistic for the longer term. But I think the best we're going to do in the short term is try to slow down the infection rate enough that the medical systems don't get completely overloaded.

If we're really, really lucky we'll learn our lesson and prepare for the next potential pandemic and take steps before it gets this bad.  With the world as connected as it is, it's not a question of if there will be another potentially more deadly disease disease outbreak, it's a question of when.  Time will tell.


----------



## seebs

Could be 1.5-2 years, could be sooner if the researchers working on coronavirus vaccines get lucky, who the heck knows.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> Whether or not people can put up with it, socially, economically, quarantine for that long just isn't feasible.



Using what measure?  WW2 probably lowered living standards less in UK than global social isolation would.  UK survived.

What is "feasible" if you want to avoid millions of deaths?

 That is the choice we'll have to make.

We'll be more informed the more we delay. 

Information out of Iran, for example, will show one case of epidemic gone wild.  Other poor and less insular areas will also be hit over the next month, and we'll has as much video of megadeaths this will cause if we surrender as we want.

Welcome to interesting times.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> R0 is a broad statistical measure of how many others a carrier will infect in a population, overall.  It does not really speak to, "what is my chance of catching (and thus spreading) during a specific trip to a grocery store".



But it does tell you the derivative of the risk.

An R0 of 3 with a average spread of 4 days means every 8 days there are 10x more people infected.  So your chance of getting it after two weeks is roughly 100x greater.

An R0 of 0.5 and effective self isolation when symptomatic means that after 2 weeks, there are 1.75x as many sick, but fewer people symptomatic walking around.

So what the R0 is and what the population behaviour is to symptoms changes if it is more short term personally risky now or in 2 weeks.

But social distancing *this isn't about *short term personal risk.  It is about group risk.  It is about keeping the infected rate below health care capacity, and in the medium term dropping the population risk to near zero.

Your personal short term risk from failing to social distance can be small, but the medium-long cost to the group can be huge, at the same time.

Acts that raise R0 (failing to social distance) right now have much higher costs than they will in 4 weeks, unless we go the Iran route of "oh well, just let millions die" and surrender.


----------



## FrogReaver

NotAYakk said:


> But it does tell you the derivative of the risk.
> 
> An R0 of 3 with a average spread of 4 days means every 8 days there are 10x more people infected.  So your chance of getting it after two weeks is roughly 100x greater.
> 
> An R0 of 0.5 and effective self isolation when symptomatic means that after 2 weeks, there are 1.75x as many sick, but fewer people symptomatic walking around.
> 
> So what the R0 is and what the population behaviour is to symptoms changes if it is more short term personally risky now or in 2 weeks.
> 
> But social distancing *this isn't about *short term personal risk.  It is about group risk.  It is about keeping the infected rate below health care capacity, and in the medium term dropping the population risk to near zero.
> 
> Your personal short term risk from failing to social distance can be small, but the medium-long cost to the group can be huge, at the same time.
> 
> Acts that raise R0 (failing to social distance) right now have much higher costs than they will in 4 weeks, unless we go the Iran route of "oh well, just let millions die" and surrender.



You seem to believe personal risk of catching and group risk of catching are independent. I would say they are very much dependent. If I minimize my individual chances of catching then I’m minimizing chances of spreading. Amazing how that works.


----------



## Nebulous

Oofta said:


> Some epidemiologists recommend that we basically quarantine ourselves until a vaccine is widely available in 1.5-2 years.
> 
> I don't know how long people will put up with the social isolation though, at a certain point I suspect that it will only be the vulnerable few who stay isolated.  I suspect that unless it's really, really bad most people will put up with 2-4 weeks.
> 
> Especially because there's no guarantee there will _ever_ be an effective vaccine.



I think we will get a vaccine eventually, but not soon enough to prevent catastrophic economic damage and deaths.  The social isolation is another problem.  Some people can handle it better than others.  Some will Netflix and chill and be ok, others will be pulling their hair out after 3 days.  Now is probably the best time to be an extreme introvert.


----------



## Oofta

Nebulous said:


> I think we will get a vaccine eventually, but not soon enough to prevent catastrophic economic damage and deaths.  The social isolation is another problem.  Some people can handle it better than others.  Some will Netflix and chill and be ok, others will be pulling their hair out after 3 days.  Now is probably the best time to be an extreme introvert.




Yeah, I could probably live with the "10 people or less" gatherings for quite a while since I have 6 players in my D&D group.    I mean if I really have to I'll fire up Roll20, the campaign must go on!

But the economic impact on small businesses, bars and restaurants not to mention the people that work there is going to be devastating.  It's all going to have a huge ripple effect we're going to be  dealing with for years.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> But it does tell you the derivative of the risk.
> 
> An R0 of 3 with a average spread of 4 days means every 8 days there are 10x more people infected.  So your chance of getting it after two weeks is roughly 100x greater.
> 
> An R0 of 0.5 and effective self isolation when symptomatic means that after 2 weeks, there are 1.75x as many sick, but fewer people symptomatic walking around.
> 
> So what the R0 is and what the population behaviour is to symptoms changes if it is more short term personally risky now or in 2 weeks.
> 
> But social distancing *this isn't about *short term personal risk.  It is about group risk.  It is about keeping the infected rate below health care capacity, and in the medium term dropping the population risk to near zero.
> 
> Your personal short term risk from failing to social distance can be small, but the medium-long cost to the group can be huge, at the same time.
> 
> Acts that raise R0 (failing to social distance) right now have much higher costs than they will in 4 weeks, unless we go the Iran route of "oh well, just let millions die" and surrender.




 Iran hasn't had millions die, as of last night it was less than 1000. 

 They've also got a young population.

 If it goes on long term lockdowns will have to end.


----------



## Nebulous

Oofta said:


> Yeah, I could probably live with the "10 people or less" gatherings for quite a while since I have 6 players in my D&D group.    I mean if I really have to I'll fire up Roll20, the campaign must go on!




Oh, is that the number of people they're quoting?  I wasn't sure.  I wonder if they'll eventually say don't even risk 10 people...


----------



## HarbingerX

For everyone who's discussing the numbers and what they mean, here is an excellent research piece on how to interpret the data and challenges with coming up with things like death rates.

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research


----------



## Oofta

Nebulous said:


> Oh, is that the number of people they're quoting?  I wasn't sure.  I wonder if they'll eventually say don't even risk 10 people...




It's the current recommendation by the CDC here in the US for the next 8 weeks, no gatherings more than 10 people.  Obviously it would be safer to individually lock ourselves in our bathrooms, but I think they were attempting a more realistic compromise.


----------



## MoonSong

Zardnaar said:


> Ironically low stocks of deodorant and toothpaste, feminine products.
> 
> Gotta smell nice for the apocalypse hiding in your toilet paper fort.



Don't underestimate the need for these products. Monthly cycles don't magically stop under quarantine you know.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> Don't underestimate the need for these products. Monthly cycles don't magically stop under quarantine you know.




The reason it's low is some people have a years supply.

Some people don't get it. We got the last packet of blue top powdered milk last night. Wife was complaining it's not the low fat option.

She's also complaining bshe doesn't want to eat canned food. If we both get sick well.....

Just ate breakfast. Breakfast cereal that expired four months ago. Did a taste test last night and it was fine.

We organised the cupboards and threw out the really expired stuff.

Not to worried about best before dates on a few foods. All the hipster stuff is gone. She complained because I bought self raising flour. "Can't make bread with it" well I can make banana cake with it and we have some over ripe ones.

First world problems.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> Iran hasn't had millions die, as of last night it was less than 1000.
> 
> They've also got a young population.
> 
> If it goes on long term lockdowns will have to end.



(A) their numbers are lies.  Pretty transparent lies.

They had a pretty normal for C19 exponential curve.  Then one day, their new cases plummited *and 90% of those who had it where listed as recovered*, which isn't how Covid 19 works.  After that it they seemed to be rolling dice to see what gets submitted, with values going up and down.

Meanwhile, a large percentage of their parlaiment is sick with it and a bunch of their leaders have died.  Those are harder to hide.

(B) if I'm right, and 1%-8% of the country is infected, *almost all of them got infected in the last week*, because that is what exponential curves look like.  It takes about 20 days to die.

In a month, Iran is going to be bad.  Not sure how bad.  Other countries which aren't self isolating and whose government is a bit less insular will also experience it over the next few months, and we'll have plenty of video footage of mass graves.


FrogReaver said:


> You seem to believe personal risk of catching and group risk of catching are independent. I would say they are very much dependent. If I minimize my individual chances of catching then I’m minimizing chances of spreading. Amazing how that works.



Yes, I'm aware that actually telling you what is going on doesn't work.  I gave you a 7 paragraph answer to your question, and you dismissed it off hand.  /shrug

Regardless, I'll explain again.  Because maybe someone will listen.

Suppose you have an infection that grows by a factor of 10 every week, like Covid-19 can.

Now, suppose there is a "cult of the lick", which goes up to strangers and licks them.  They only do this once per year.  If they lick someone with the virus, they catch it.  Each licks 1000 people on that day.

There are 1 thousand of them, and there are 1 million in the country.

On day 1, there is 1 person sick with the virus.  The cult of the lick activates!

Each of them have a 1 in 1 thousand chance of being infected.  Together, they have about a 63% chance of nobody being infected, and on *average* one of them gets infected (sometimes 0, sometimes 1, sometimes 2, sometimes more; the average is 1 = 0.001 * 1000).

So 4 weeks later there is an average of 20000 people sick, 2% of the population, if the "cult of the lick" activated on day 1.  Call this scenario A.

In scenario B, the cult of the lick activates 3 weeks later.  There are now 1000 people infected.

Each one has a 63% chance of being infected (we'll assume they cannot pass it to anyone else immediately); each lick is .999 likely to be safe, and .999^1000 is 37%ish, so 63% chance of being infected.  Much higher!  On average, the 1000 members of the cult of the lick infect *630 more people*. (well, 630/1000 of them)

So the total infected goes up from 1000 to 1630.

Then another week passes.  On week 4, there are 16300 people infected on average.

In Scenario A, the risk of being infected for members of the cult was lower, the number of newly infected people was lower, but *the population after 4 week was worse off*.

In Scenario B, the risk of a licker was higher, more people where infected by the mass-licking, but *the population after 4 weeks was better off* than Scenario A.

Taking a risk *earlier* in an exponential situation is *worse for the population*, even if it is sometimes better for the individual.


----------



## Mirtek

NotAYakk said:


> Using what measure?



 The meassure of not wanting to sleep outside because you could no longer pay bills for eletricity, water, rent/mortage, .....


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> (A) their numbers are lies.  Pretty transparent lies.
> 
> They had a pretty normal for C19 exponential curve.  Then one day, their new cases plummited *and 90% of those who had it where listed as recovered*, which isn't how Covid 19 works.  After that it they seemed to be rolling dice to see what gets submitted, with values going up and down.
> 
> Meanwhile, a large percentage of their parlaiment is sick with it and a bunch of their leaders have died.  Those are harder to hide.
> 
> (B) if I'm right, and 1%-8% of the country is infected, *almost all of them got infected in the last week*, because that is what exponential curves look like.  It takes about 20 days to die.
> 
> In a month, Iran is going to be bad.  Not sure how bad.  Other countries which aren't self isolating and whose government is a bit less insular will also experience it over the next few months, and we'll have plenty of video footage of mass graves.
> 
> Yes, I'm aware that actually telling you what is going on doesn't work.  I gave you a 7 paragraph answer to your question, and you dismissed it off hand.  /shrug
> 
> Regardless, I'll explain again.  Because maybe someone will listen.
> 
> Suppose you have an infection that grows by a factor of 10 every week, like Covid-19 can.
> 
> Now, suppose there is a "cult of the lick", which goes up to strangers and licks them.  They only do this once per year.  If they lick someone with the virus, they catch it.  Each licks 1000 people on that day.
> 
> There are 1 thousand of them, and there are 1 million in the country.
> 
> On day 1, there is 1 person sick with the virus.  The cult of the lick activates!
> 
> Each of them have a 1 in 1 thousand chance of being infected.  Together, they have about a 63% chance of nobody being infected, and on *average* one of them gets infected (sometimes 0, sometimes 1, sometimes 2, sometimes more; the average is 1 = 0.001 * 1000).
> 
> So 4 weeks later there is an average of 20000 people sick, 2% of the population, if the "cult of the lick" activated on day 1.  Call this scenario A.
> 
> In scenario B, the cult of the lick activates 3 weeks later.  There are now 1000 people infected.
> 
> Each one has a 63% chance of being infected (we'll assume they cannot pass it to anyone else immediately); each lick is .999 likely to be safe, and .999^1000 is 37%ish, so 63% chance of being infected.  Much higher!  On average, the 1000 members of the cult of the lick infect *630 more people*. (well, 630/1000 of them)
> 
> So the total infected goes up from 1000 to 1630.
> 
> Then another week passes.  On week 4, there are 16300 people infected on average.
> 
> In Scenario A, the risk of being infected for members of the cult was lower, the number of newly infected people was lower, but *the population after 4 week was worse off*.
> 
> In Scenario B, the risk of a licker was higher, more people where infected by the mass-licking, but *the population after 4 weeks was better off* than Scenario A.
> 
> Taking a risk *earlier* in an exponential situation is *worse for the population*, even if it is sometimes better for the individual.




 Yeah Iranian numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt.  Still not millions,.

Emergency protein supply.


----------



## MarkB

Mirtek said:


> Wow, this toilet paper thing was predicted long ago:



And far, far away.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Using what measure?  WW2 probably lowered living standards less in UK than global social isolation would.  UK survived.
> 
> What is "feasible" if you want to avoid millions of deaths?




When the cure is as bad or worse than the disease, you have a problem.

Do remember - the Great Depression can be regarded as the cause for about 7 million deaths, mostly due to starvation or malnutrition.  If the isolation causes economic depression, and folks lose their homes and food security, they aren't going to be self-isolating - they'll be in shelters or on the streets... getting sick.

Thus, there are limts to how far we can take isolation, and have it be helpful.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> (A) their numbers are lies.  Pretty transparent lies.
> Suppose you have an infection that grows by a factor of 10 every week, like Covid-19 can.




You may have listed this elsewhere, but... cite?

Last I saw, it has a doubling time of 3 to 6 days.  That's 2x to 4x per week, not 10x.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> When the cure is as bad or worse than the disease, you have a problem.
> 
> Do remember - the Great Depression can be regarded as the cause for about 7 million deaths, mostly due to starvation or malnutrition.  If the isolation causes economic depression, and folks lose their homes and food security, they aren't going to be self-isolating - they'll be in shelters or on the streets... getting sick.
> 
> Thus, there are limts to how far we can take isolation, and have it be helpful.




In the war years they did calculate how many would die in this situation vs that one.

Standard if living went up for the majority of the population in the war years in a lot if countries. Rationing improved the diets.

In WW1 the UK had a lot of conscripts fail the medical cf Australia/Canada/NZ.

Government's gonna have to make some hard decisions in a few weeks. Your choices are bad, worse and awful and it may not be apparent what one is what.


----------



## slobster

Zardnaar said:


> In the war years they did calculate how many would die in this situation vs that one.
> 
> Standard if living went up for the majority of the population in the war years in a lot if countries. Rationing improved the diets.
> 
> In WW1 the UK had a lot of conscripts fail the medical cf Australia/Canada/NZ.
> 
> Government's gonna have to make some hard decisions in a few weeks. Your choices are bad, worse and awful and it may not be apparent what one is what.



I feel confident in saying that the coronavirus will not be improving the international economic outlook or general way of life for the vast majority of people on this planet. Toilet paper rationing notwithstanding.


----------



## THEMNGMNT

Today's New York Times has an article on a 100 page US government plan that was leaked to them. The plan anticipates that during the next 18 months there will be several waves of outbreaks. So, they way I read that, we'll have 2 or 3 months of lockdown, then 2 or 3 months of normal life, then lockdown again, then normal life, etc. It won't necessarily be global like what we're experiencing now but regional as we get better at tracking and containing early.


----------



## Zardnaar

slobster said:


> I feel confident in saying that the coronavirus will not be improving the international economic outlook or general way of life for the vast majority of people on this planet. Toilet paper rationing notwithstanding.




 Nope but they might have to look at rationing.


----------



## Zardnaar

THEMNGMNT said:


> Today's New York Times has an article on a 100 page US government plan that was leaked to them. The plan anticipates that during the next 18 months there will be several waves of outbreaks. So, they way I read that, we'll have 2 or 3 months of lockdown, then 2 or 3 months of normal life, then lockdown again, then normal life, etc. It won't necessarily be global like what we're experiencing now but regional as we get better at tracking and containing early.




 That's what proponents of the herd plan were proposing. 

 Netherlands might be going down that path. More dead now vs more dead later. Either way more dead.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> In the war years they did calculate how many would die in this situation vs that one.
> 
> Standard if living went up for the majority of the population in the war years in a lot if countries. Rationing improved the diets.




Rationing is what you do when everyone has a job, but you need to shunt resources away from the people.

Depression is where people don't have jobs, and can't buy goods, even if they exist.

We are not currently faced with a lack of goods for the people.  But, if isolation continues, small businesses (like bars not being allowed to open, small retail which doesn't get foot traffic, and so on) fold - they can't pay rent on their shops or their payroll if they have no income.  And small businesses comprise 40%+ of payroll dollars in the US. 

Then, the employees of those businesses can't pay their rents/mortgages or for other goods.  That impacts the large business, as we stop buying cars, and TVs, and taking vacations.  And all those folks depending on the stock market for their livelihoods and retirements have issues... and then you wind up in major recession or depression. 

A couple months of this we can withstand.  Maybe a shot in the arm to cover small business rent, and the like, and we quickly recover.  But over year is a different kind of beast.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> You may have listed this elsewhere, but... cite?
> 
> Last I saw, it has a doubling time of 3 to 6 days.  That's 2x to 4x per week, not 10x.



The daily growth in the west is about 33% per day.









						Coronavirus, a Visual Rundown – The Process 080
					

We’re seeing a lot of visual to help explain what’s going on. Here’s the main stuff: what it is, who is affected, the spread, and what we can do.




					flowingdata.com
				




So you can see it exceeding 33% d/d growth.  10x in 7 days is 39% d/d growth.  33% is 10x every 8 days.

Thus "as covid-19 can".  10x in a week is only slightly faster than the _floor_ of what western democracies have been experiencing without social distancing.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> The daily growth in the west is about 33% per day.




Okay, so, doing some reading, there's a lot of confounding surrounding testing rates, and whether you are measuring _known_ cases, or estimated cases in the population.  Those two numbers are only very similar if you have a high testing rate, which no Western country really has yet, it seems.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Rationing is what you do when everyone has a job, but you need to shunt resources away from the people.
> 
> Depression is where people don't have jobs, and can't buy goods, even if they exist.
> 
> We are not currently faced with a lack of goods for the people.  But, if isolation continues, small businesses (like bars not being allowed to open, small retail which doesn't get foot traffic, and so on) fold - they can't pay rent on their shops or their payroll if they have no income.  And small businesses comprise 40%+ of payroll dollars in the US.
> 
> Then, the employees of those businesses can't pay their rents/mortgages or for other goods.  That impacts the large business, as we stop buying cars, and TVs, and taking vacations.  And all those folks depending on the stock market for their livelihoods and retirements have issues... and then you wind up in major recession or depression.
> 
> A couple months of this we can withstand.  Maybe a shot in the arm to cover small business rent, and the like, and we quickly recover.  But over year is a different kind of beast.




Nope they'll open things up and you take your chances.

A lot of our depression era stuff got turned into camping grounds and scout camps.

There's a small town near where I grew up. Can fit 5000 people permanent population is under 1000.

Stayed in an old workman's camp from the 30s there. It was a bit rough but kinda fun. It's not up to modern standards and probably a fire hazard but they were technically allowed to run it as a camping ground.

I've been reading up and watching videos on how things used to be done including the Soviet Union and the wartime economies. 

 The resources are still there, how they move them round us going to be key.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Nope they'll open things up and you take your chances.




As I said - if the cure is as bad as the disease, you don't take the cure.



> A lot of our depression era stuff got turned into camping grounds and scout camps.




Which are very much _NOT_ self-isolating situations.  

That's the problem with the long-term isolation solution - we can isolate only as long as the people have food, and safe, clean separate housing for small groups - that requires significant levels of economic activity that we dont' have if we are isolated.  So, isolation is self-limiting.  

If people lose the housing and food security, you lose the isolation, and the virus gets everyone anyway.  What, then, was the point?


----------



## Zardnaar

Well my toilet paper bunker is looking anemic and I've discovered a few things.

1. OSR is correct keeping track of ammunition is important. Keeping track of your bow is also important. Hand crossbow in each hand doesn't work.

2. Pathfinder is the superior option in the Corona zombie apocalypse. Since I can't find my bow making do with improvised weapons in my TP bunker.





I think I can hollow it out and make a petrol bomb. 5E just not thick enough.

A 5.5 release with some arrows included for larping would be nice. Mearls get to it.

I'ma commoner with expertise in D&D lore how many hp dies a zombie have? Aww crap.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> As I said - if the cure is as bad as the disease, you don't take the cure.
> 
> 
> 
> Which are very much _NOT_ self-isolating situations.
> 
> That's the problem with the long-term isolation solution - we can isolate only as long as the people have food, and safe, clean separate housing for small groups - that requires significant levels of economic activity that we dont' have if we are isolated.  So, isolation is self-limiting.
> 
> If people lose the housing and food security, you lose the isolation, and the virus gets everyone anyway.  What, then, was the point?




 Well hopefully it burns itself out. We're basically kicking the can down the street and hoping for the best. 

 To early to say yet. Fund out in a few weeks.


----------



## Oofta

Zardnaar said:


> Well hopefully it burns itself out. We're basically kicking the can down the street and hoping for the best.
> 
> To early to say yet. Fund out in a few weeks.




Unfortunately kicking the can down the road and slowing down the rate of infection to the level that hospitals can handle may be the best we can hope for now.  Containment may have been an option at one point but it is no longer.


----------



## Zardnaar

Oofta said:


> Unfortunately kicking the can down the road and slowing down the rate of infection to the level that hospitals can handle may be the best we can hope for now.  Containment may have been an option at one point but it is no longer.




Yeah it's the best of a lot of bad options.

 Scary when the herd plan is second best option. 

 Bad, worse, awful. Pick one.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Zardnaar said:


> Just ate breakfast. Breakfast cereal that expired four months ago. Did a taste test last night and it was fine.




This is something that could use a lot more pointing out to people. Stuff that does not have to be refrigerated/frozen or is not dairy or bakery, will last long past the best by/use by/etc dates on packaging, if they are still sealed.

That cereal was still good because, I am assuming, it was still sealed before you ate it. If it had been opened when you first bought it and still on the shelf for four months past the best by date, then it would have probably been pretty nasty.


----------



## NotAYakk

Oofta said:


> Unfortunately kicking the can down the road and slowing down the rate of infection to the level that hospitals can handle may be the best we can hope for now.  Containment may have been an option at one point but it is no longer.



"The level that hospitals can handle" is an outbreak spread out over about 10 years.

80,000 ICU beds in USA (as an example country).  Approx 5% of infected need it.  Infected need it for approx 20 days.  So 80,000 / .05  * 20 = can handle 80,000 new people getting this disease per day, if 100% of ICU beds (including Federal reserve ones) are used only for this.

300,000,000/80,000 = 3750 days =~ 10 years.

So you can do better if you mass produce ICU beds, but then you run into Doctor and Nurse shortages, which are harder to mass produce.  And most existing ICU beds are being used today to save people's lives.

You need to do better than "keeping infection below the point where hospitals can handle it".  Because we have, on the population level, 0 ICU beds per person within rounding error.  And this disease needs closer to 1 ICU bed per person.

And by "we" I mean "every country in the world has 0 ICU beds  per person within rounding error."

(ICU beds in this case mean respirator equipped beds, or more serious, like the ones who breathe for you without using your lungs)

People keep on saying "well maybe this isn't that bad".  I get it.  I don't want it to be this bad either.


----------



## Zardnaar

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> This is something that could use a lot more pointing out to people. Stuff that does not have to be refrigerated/frozen or is not dairy or bakery, will last long past the best by/use by/etc dates on packaging, if they are still sealed.
> 
> That cereal was still good because, I am assuming, it was still sealed before you ate it. If it had been opened when you first bought it and still on the shelf for four months past the best by date, then it would have probably been pretty nasty.




It had been opened but was in ziplock bag.

The other one is still sealed.

Drunk some Russian beer recently. 6 months last bb date twas fine.

Wife went on cleaning binge recently and threw out dated chilli powder. Be useful around about now.





November 2019, was opened probably 6-8 months ago. Almost got thrown out, nope breakfast.


----------



## THEMNGMNT

Zardnaar said:


> That's what proponents of the herd plan were proposing.
> 
> Netherlands might be going down that path. More dead now vs more dead later. Either way more dead.



Well, not quite. The US government plan is describing an anticipated situation in the future--not advocating for it.

And the choice isn't between "more dead now vs more dead later". The choice is between having a higher chance of dying if you contract the virus vs having a lower chance of dying if you contract the virus. How we get from the former to the latter is by flattening the curve.

Be well.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> 300,000,000/80,000 = 3750 days =~ 10 years.




In this step, you are assuming that _every person in the US_ gets infected, yes?

That's... a highly questionable assumption.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Whole foods is opening their first hour for 60 years and older.  Good on them. Every store needs to do this.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> When the cure is as bad or worse than the disease, you have a problem.
> 
> Do remember - the Great Depression can be regarded as the cause for about 7 million deaths, mostly due to starvation or malnutrition.  If the isolation causes economic depression, and folks lose their homes and food security, they aren't going to be self-isolating - they'll be in shelters or on the streets... getting sick.
> 
> Thus, there are limts to how far we can take isolation, and have it be helpful.




The difference is that we have never had more than we do now.

We have ample amounts of food and shelter.

We don't have ample amounts of money. The solution is to stop caring about the money that the super rich have and make sure the poor have what they need.

This could be a turning point for our societies.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> In this step, you are assuming that _every person in the US_ gets infected, yes?
> 
> That's... a highly questionable assumption.



So 30% get infected not 100%.  And half of beds are in use for Covid, not 100%.  Only 6 and a half years.  A half here, a double there, same ballpark.

The goal is a back of the napkin calculation.  If you want a serious one, I linked the imperial college epidemiological paper here I think?  COVID-19: Imperial researchers model likely impact of public health measures | Imperial News | Imperial College London


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> The difference is that we have never had more than we do now.
> 
> We have ample amounts of food and shelter.
> 
> We don't have ample amounts of money. The solution is to stop caring about the money that the super rich have and make sure the poor have what they need.
> 
> This could be a turning point for our societies.




 Problem is you need the money to keep stuff flowing to the poor. 

 For example in US they were planning on giving the airlines 80 billion. Give it to the people!!. Each person gets $250 to panic buy toilet paper vs keeping the planes running. 

 We need those planes for medicine delivery. 

 Out government is doing wage subsidies for 3 months and putting up welfare by $25 a week. The subsidy is about $500+ dollars. 

 But they can't keep that up long term. Over a year it's increasing spending by 50%.

 And everyone's gonna be wanting to do the same thing (via borrowing). Eventually borrowing will be difficult.


----------



## HarbingerX

For those interested in how to interpret the numbers being reported. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research


----------



## MoonSong

Line for sanitizer in a red club close to me.





Your browser is not able to display this video.


----------



## Zardnaar

Wow sanitizer. I got to use a wipe last night at the supermarket.


----------



## Oofta

MoonSong said:


> Line for sanitizer in a red club close to me.




Good thing we don't have to line up for hand soap yet.  I get that sanitizer is easier and portable, but plain old soap and water is better.


----------



## Zardnaar

Get moisturizer if your using soap and water. Hands are so dry lol.

Last week I was let's stock up. Wife was naah.

Saturday landed and it's clean everything's.  Go figure.

No one's died here yet, 20 cases ICU nationally can only handle 3500 though.

Doomsday plan.








						Coronavirus: What is New Zealand's plan if mass deaths occur?
					

The Government is prepared for 38,000 deaths over an eight-week period in a pandemic scenario.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




Well they have a plan at least.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> The solution is to stop caring about the money that the super rich have and make sure the poor have what they need.




I'm going to call that beyond the scope of these boards.  No politics, and all that.


----------



## MoonSong

Oofta said:


> Good thing we don't have to line up for hand soap yet.  I get that sanitizer is easier and portable, but plain old soap and water is better.



It is a line to prevent people hoarding the stuff. Though in some places they went out of chlorine, wipes and Lysol on top of gel.

At least in my country people is bound not to have enough extra money to go and stockpile food and other necessities. I hope.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Well, my partner and I made a hard choice. I will no longer be seeing her for a while (we live in different houses)  her younger son sees his irresponsible dad every week and she lives next to her mom. And my son insists on going over to his girlfriends house, and she has two teen siblings who think they are immune and still go out to public places every day to hang out. Their mom works at a retirement home, so you’d think they would have a shred of good judgment 

Since we’ve had several cases in this town, the risk is just too high so we made the decision. Bleh. I hope we get widespread tests quickly.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Umbran said:


> In this step, you are assuming that _every person in the US_ gets infected, yes?
> 
> That's... a highly questionable assumption.




And how many people in this country have never had a cold or the flu? That is maybe how many people will never have this. This is going to be seasonal, most likely, and be around in variations, just like the flu.


----------



## Marandahir

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> And how many people in this country have never had a cold or the flu? That is maybe how many people will never have this. This is going to be seasonal, most likely, and be around in variations, just like the flu.




The fact of the matter is, we have no clue what the pattern will be, if any. Please don't spread assumptions that the scientists stress over and over again that they just can't know yet.


----------



## HarbingerX

Marandahir said:


> The fact of the matter is, we have no clue what the pattern will be, if any. Please don't spread assumptions that the scientists stress over and over again that they just can't know yet.




Regardless of the pattern, epidemiologists have been saying that long term this virus will be another childhood disease like chickenpox. This is why the WHO finally called it a pandemic - it's here to stay.


----------



## Sacrosanct

HarbingerX said:


> Regardless of the pattern, epidemiologists have been saying that long term this virus will be another childhood disease like chickenpox. This is why the WHO finally called it a pandemic - it's here to stay.




Pandemic has nothing to do with lifespan of the virus, but if it’s impacted multiple continents.


----------



## GreyLord

Well, I had someone call asking for Toilet paper.  It's a manufactured crisis, but it's still a crisis.  Officially, I hope people have TP cause right now it doesn't seem available in our area.  For those that don't have any, it could be an emergency.

I have a couple of bottles that could be converted to squirt bottles.  I told my SO that once they are out, don't toss them.   We may need them for impromptu bidets if the toilet paper situation doesn't improve.

Good for now though.  One of my RPG buddies isn't though.  I told him maybe a government building might have some in their bathrooms, go and take a whole bunch there???

Not sure what to tell people when their TP run out.


----------



## reelo

Sacrosanct said:


> Well, my partner and I made a hard choice. I will no longer be seeing her for a while (we live in different houses) her younger son sees his irresponsible dad every week and she lives next to her mom. And my son insists on going over to his girlfriends house, and she has two teen siblings who think they are immune and still go out to public places every day to hang out. Their mom works at a retirement home, so you’d think they would have a shred of good judgment
> 
> Since we’ve had several cases in this town, the risk is just too high so we made the decision. Bleh. I hope we get widespread tests quickly.



"I'm young and healthy, this won't affect me much" is the Millennial's version of "I'm old, I don't care about climate change."
Two sides of the same coin.


----------



## Azzy

reelo said:


> "I'm young and healthy, this won't affect me much" is the Millennial's version of "I'm old, I don't care about climate change."
> Two sides of the same coin.



I think you mean Zoomer, not Millenial.


----------



## reelo

Azzy said:


> I think you mean Zoomer, not Millenial.



Yeah, my bad.


----------



## Umbran

HarbingerX said:


> Regardless of the pattern, epidemiologists have been saying that long term this virus will be another childhood disease like chickenpox. This is why the WHO finally called it a pandemic - it's here to stay.




We do not have evidence to support that, like chicken pox, once you get this you have long-term immunity,  

For another, while there are no hard and fast rules to the definition of pandemic these days, "it is here to stay" is not among them.  Pandemics are acute events.  The flu is "here to stay", but is only classified as a pandemic in very severe years.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Same. Even using moisturizer, I've gotten some paper cuts so bad they've still been bleeding a little the next day.

After trying out platform after platform, I've settled on using Discord to keep my gaming group going. Got signed up, then installed and configured it in less than 10 minutes.



Zardnaar said:


> Get moisturizer if your using soap and water. Hands are so dry lol.


----------



## NotAYakk

Ralif Redhammer said:


> Same. Even using moisturizer, I've gotten some paper cuts so bad they've still been bleeding a little the next day.
> 
> After trying out platform after platform, I've settled on using Discord to keep my gaming group going. Got signed up, then installed and configured it in less than 10 minutes.



How do you play?  Just TOTM and dice rolling bot?


----------



## generic

NotAYakk said:


> How do you play?  Just TOTM and dice rolling bot?



You can make video calls with up to 9 friends on Discord, if you make group DM.


----------



## FrozenNorth

reelo said:


> "I'm young and healthy, this won't affect me much" is the Millennial's version of "I'm old, I don't care about climate change."
> Two sides of the same coin.



The difference is that the Boomers are old enough to know better.  The poster is literally talking about teenagers, from whom we don’t except sober judgment.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

We won't have played a session until this weekend, but yeah, I run theater of the mind. I found that a lot of the dedicated platforms just had more stuff than I actually needed. Haven't looked at dice roller bots yet - all we've done so far is test out our A/V set-ups. I'm thinking about a bot for background music, but I want to let everyone get used to the platform before trying the bells and whistles.



NotAYakk said:


> How do you play?  Just TOTM and dice rolling bot?


----------



## Oofta

Ralif Redhammer said:


> We won't have played a session until this weekend, but yeah, I run theater of the mind. I found that a lot of the dedicated platforms just had more stuff than I actually needed. Haven't looked at dice roller bots yet - all we've done so far is test out our A/V set-ups. I'm thinking about a bot for background music, but I want to let everyone get used to the platform before trying the bells and whistles.



I haven't done my game online yet, but I don't really care about dice roller bots.  I trust my players and never check their die rolls anyway.

I'll probably try Roll20 though because I do like using a grids.


----------



## CleverNickName




----------



## Lem23

I've recently been using rpgcrossing for PBP games (rather than VTT or Discord games), and like the atmosphere and forum mechanics there. It's a different pace, but I'm getting just as much enjoyment there as with my FtF game.


----------



## MoonSong

I'm genuinely worried. 

Official totals in my country:  Over 300 suspected cases, over 1 hundred confirmed cases, first fatal victim who was never on the official cases list, not even in the suspected ones. It gets better, this one was a third generation case at the very least. Oh but the health ministry still insists all cases are first or second generation (iow someone who came infected from abroad or in direct contact with one of them). 

While all this happens, the leader of our country insists on not taking any preventive action: refuses desinfectant gel, won't ever wear a facemask and continues staging massive events and kissing babies across the country.  It is ok if he personally doesn't care, but now many people are emboldened by his example and are taking zero meassures to reduce contagions. Some even believe it is an invention or conspiracy.

Also turns out that the national respiratory diseases institute -the most important hospital in this kind of disease and where all of the worst patients are meant to be transfered to- is unprepared for this task and is out of key supplies.

Speaking of low supplies, since testing remains expensive, about $560 per person, they are refusing to test anybody under 60. (I guess it is also a way of keeping official numbers low)

I really fear for me and my family. With all of this combination of imprudence, lack of resources and the health authorities stuck with their head in the sand .


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> I'm genuinely worried.
> 
> Official totals in my country:  Over 300 suspected cases, over 1 hundred confirmed cases, first fatal victim who was never on the official cases list, not even in the suspected ones. It gets better, this one was a third generation case at the very least. Oh but the health ministry still insists all cases are first or second generation (iow someone who came infected from abroad or in direct contact with one of them).
> 
> While all this happens, the leader of our country insists on not taking any preventive action: refuses desinfectant gel, won't ever wear a facemask and continues staging massive events and kissing babies across the country.  It is ok if he personally doesn't care, but now many people are emboldened by his example and are taking zero meassures to reduce contagions. Some even believe it is an invention or conspiracy.
> 
> Also turns out that the national respiratory diseases institute -the most important hospital in this kind of disease and where all of the worst patients are meant to be transfered to- is unprepared for this task and is out of key supplies.
> 
> Speaking of low supplies, since testing remains expensive, about $560 per person, they are refusing to test anybody under 60. (I guess it is also a way of keeping official numbers low)
> 
> I really fear for me and my family. With all of this combination of imprudence, lack of resources and the health authorities stuck with their head in the sand .




 Mexico or Brazil? Or somewhere else?


----------



## seebs

HarbingerX said:


> Regardless of the pattern, epidemiologists have been saying that long term this virus will be another childhood disease like chickenpox. This is why the WHO finally called it a pandemic - it's here to stay.




I haven't seen that one from any epidemiologists. I've seen that reported as _one possible outcome_, but given how much more lethal it is than the flu, and that immunity to it wears off a lot faster than chickenpox (probably), I'm guessing there will be a lot of work on getting rid of it.


----------



## Azzy

Ralif Redhammer said:


> We won't have played a session until this weekend, but yeah, I run theater of the mind. I found that a lot of the dedicated platforms just had more stuff than I actually needed. Haven't looked at dice roller bots yet - all we've done so far is test out our A/V set-ups. I'm thinking about a bot for background music, but I want to let everyone get used to the platform before trying the bells and whistles.



I think that Discord has dice rolling scripts.


----------



## Azzy

MoonSong said:


> I'm genuinely worried.
> 
> Official totals in my country:  Over 300 suspected cases, over 1 hundred confirmed cases, first fatal victim who was never on the official cases list, not even in the suspected ones. It gets better, this one was a third generation case at the very least. Oh but the health ministry still insists all cases are first or second generation (iow someone who came infected from abroad or in direct contact with one of them).
> 
> While all this happens, the leader of our country insists on not taking any preventive action: refuses desinfectant gel, won't ever wear a facemask and continues staging massive events and kissing babies across the country.  It is ok if he personally doesn't care, but now many people are emboldened by his example and are taking zero meassures to reduce contagions. Some even believe it is an invention or conspiracy.
> 
> Also turns out that the national respiratory diseases institute -the most important hospital in this kind of disease and where all of the worst patients are meant to be transfered to- is unprepared for this task and is out of key supplies.
> 
> Speaking of low supplies, since testing remains expensive, about $560 per person, they are refusing to test anybody under 60. (I guess it is also a way of keeping official numbers low)
> 
> I really fear for me and my family. With all of this combination of imprudence, lack of resources and the health authorities stuck with their head in the sand .




I hope you and your loved ones stay safe. I also hope that your country, mine, and many others start really taking it seriously.


----------



## Fenris-77

Where I live they've cancelled school and daycares, limited travel, and social distancing is in full swing, and we don't have a single confirmed case. I'm ok with that.


----------



## Mistwell

FrozenNorth said:


> The difference is that the Boomers are old enough to know better.  The poster is literally talking about teenagers, from whom we don’t except sober judgment.




No he is talking about college students on spring break. People old enough to vote. If we cannot expect sober judgement from them, then they shouldn't be voting.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mistwell said:


> No he is talking about college students on spring break. People old enough to vote. If we cannot expect sober judgement from them, then they shouldn't be voting.




Uni students here wanted to do street parties after the PM asked for self isolation.

Now it's not so voluntary. Cops said they would break it up and uni said they would expel them.

"Can't tell me what to do"

Well actually we can.

 Grand parents and great grandparents were asked (and told) to go to war.

 Modern generation. Stay at home on couch.


----------



## seebs

If we required sober judgement for people to vote, we would have very very few voters.


----------



## Emirikol Prime

dnd4vr said:


> So... no, we would not cancel our sessions.
> 
> This pandemic is a lot of media hype. I am not saying it isn't there or real, and I feel horrible for the regions affected, but media feeds into the fears of the people. I do a lot in the stock markets, and this is the kind of stuff that drives me crazy! People are stockpiling supplies like it is the end of the world.
> 
> If the news was broadcast in grayscale and not color, people wouldn't be nearly as freaked out. Consider this revised map:
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Revised Map
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 119761
> 
> 
> 
> No reaction, right? Could mean anything.
> 
> Now, look at site like Wikipedia even, notice how the map is just shades of red?
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Original Map
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 119762
> 
> 
> 
> Our reaction is something scary is going on. According to this map, it looks like all 1 billion plus people in China are already gone!
> 
> And that causes fear and panic instead of rational reactions.
> 
> Certainly in areas where the virus is present, people need to be cautious, but media pushes it overboard in my estimation.
> 
> So, we will continue to meet to play D&D.



Posts like this are going to be responsible for deaths.   Delete it.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

seebs said:


> If we required sober judgement for people to vote, we would have very very few voters.



And we'd have vastly better policy-makers.


----------



## Zardnaar

Emirikol Prime said:


> Posts like this are going to be responsible for deaths.   Delete it.




When wisdom is a dump stat.


----------



## Sacrosanct

FrozenNorth said:


> The difference is that the Boomers are old enough to know better.  The poster is literally talking about teenagers, from whom we don’t except sober judgment.




This isn’t necessarily true. A lot of people vacationing on Florida beaches are boomers with their families. Not just spring breakers from college. My partners dad lives on the beach in Florida. He sees all the same demographics. And the governor of Florida who refuses to shut down beaches isn’t a millennial.


----------



## generic

Across all generations, there is a single uniting factor...

Is it that we're all Human?

No.

It's that there will always be stupid people. Amen.


----------



## Azzy

Sacrosanct said:


> And the governor of Florida who refuses to shut down beaches isn’t a millennial.



No, he's just an idiot. Like the last one we had.


----------



## MoonSong

Zardnaar said:


> Mexico or Brazil? Or somewhere else?



In the heart of the moon LOL!  n_n
(But really the one that means a place in the moon)



Zardnaar said:


> When wisdom is a dump stat.



That would be mine, that one and Constitution.  °u_u


----------



## Umbran

Emirikol Prime said:


> Posts like this are going to be responsible for deaths.   Delete it.




*Mod note:*
This demand is not appropriate.  That was posted over a week ago, and the world looked rather different then.  Please allow for history.


----------



## Umbran

Aebir-Toril said:


> It's that there will always be stupid people. Amen.




Alas, humans in general are amazingly _bad_ at risk assessment beyond what we can physically see.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Alas, humans in general are amazingly _bad_ at risk assessment beyond what we can physically see.




Tourists die here every year.

Swimming in rough surf when you are used to a paddle pool.

Walking up to a glacier directly under it and ice falls.

Guided tour of an active volcanoes crater.

Digging a massive home at the beach and have it collapse on you.

Blind drunk falling into the harbor in sub zero temperatures.

Going swimming into a rip tide.

Climbing of rocks at surf beach and getting swept into the ocean.

Climbing Mount Cook in dubious conditions.

 Driving on the wrong side of the road.


----------



## HarbingerX

Zardnaar said:


> Tourists die here every year.
> 
> Swimming in rough surf when you are used to a paddle pool.
> 
> Walking up to a glacier directly under it and ice falls.
> 
> Guided tour of an active volcanoes crater.
> 
> Digging a massive home at the beach and have it collapse on you.
> 
> Blind drunk falling into the harbor in sub zero temperatures.
> 
> Going swimming into a rip tide.
> 
> Climbing of rocks at surf beach and getting swept into the ocean.
> 
> Climbing Mount Cook in dubious conditions.
> 
> Driving on the wrong side of the road.




Nature is Metal.


----------



## Stormonu

My mom just got out of the hospital after having seizures.  My dad isn't in the best health either.  They're 77.  Normally, my parents have medicare-paid aides come in to help with chores and whatnot so my dad isn't overwhelmed trying to keep up and caring for my mom.  That aid has been suspended for at least two weeks now - so if he has to leave the house, there is no one to watch my mom.  They live in a backwoods area, where there is no delivery, even for restaurant food.  I work at a medical clinic that's seen several cases this week, and I fear it's only a matter of time before I catch this, so I'm trying to limit my contact with them.

I don't know what to do; D&D is the farthest thing from my mind right now.


----------



## FrozenNorth

Mistwell said:


> No he is talking about college students on spring break. People old enough to vote. If we cannot expect sober judgement from them, then they shouldn't be voting.



Reelo specifically mentioned his wife’s younger son, and two teenagers who go out to the public places.  No mention of spring break.
Also, I think history has shown that a lot of people don’t exercise sober judgment when voting, I’m still inclined to cut more slack to 18-year olds than 65-year olds.


----------



## Galendril

Stormonu said:


> My mom just got out of the hospital after having seizures.  My dad isn't in the best health either.  They're 77.  Normally, my parents have medicare-paid aides come in to help with chores and whatnot so my dad isn't overwhelmed trying to keep up and caring for my mom.  That aid has been suspended for at least two weeks now - so if he has to leave the house, there is no one to watch my mom.  They live in a backwoods area, where there is no delivery, even for restaurant food.  I work at a medical clinic that's seen several cases this week, and I fear it's only a matter of time before I catch this, so I'm trying to limit my contact with them.
> 
> I don't know what to do; D&D is the farthest thing from my mind right now.




Thank you for your service to your community and the world as a whole!


----------



## Horwath

seebs said:


> If we required sober judgement for people to vote, we would have very very few voters.




move voting age to 25 years.

ban anyone from voting that cannot pass MENSA admission test.


----------



## NotAYakk

Horwath said:


> move voting age to 25 years.
> 
> ban anyone from voting that cannot pass MENSA admission test.



And ban anyone from voting who actually joins MENSA.


----------



## Horwath

NotAYakk said:


> And ban anyone from voting who actually joins MENSA.




that also


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> ban anyone from voting that cannot pass MENSA admission test.




The use of testing to qualify people for voting rights has a long and racially problematic past, and would likely end up as racially discriminatory if used in the future, because pretty much all standardized written exams measuring academic accomplishment end up with racially biased outcomes.

Discussion of this point beyond that probably qualifies as politics, so I will eave it at that.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> The use of testing to qualify people for voting rights has a long and racially problematic past, and would likely end up as racially discriminatory if used in the future, because pretty much all standardized written exams measuring academic accomplishment end up with racially biased outcomes.
> 
> Discussion of this point beyond that probably qualifies as politics, so I will eave it at that.




So you get to put your political slant on it and then deny further discussion...


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> So you get to put your political slant on it and then deny further discussion...




It seems to me that the topic of controlling access to voting rights is innately political.  I could have swooped in with red text for people for that.  I instead chose give a tad of context myself, and in the process note how it is political, and allow folks to back off without calling individuals out as bad actors.

Pardon me for choosing what historically has proven to be a less confrontational method.  I am sorry you don't like it.  Your dislike of it is noted.  Now please move on.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> It seems to me that the topic of controlling access to voting rights is innately political.  I could have swooped in with red text for people for that.  I instead chose give a tad of context myself, and in the process note how it is political, and allow folks to back off without calling individuals out as bad actors.
> 
> Pardon me for choosing what historically has proven to be a less confrontational method.  I am sorry you don't like it.  Your dislike of it is noted.  Now please move on.




You really have no idea how you come off do you?


----------



## Horwath

Umbran said:


> The use of testing to qualify people for voting rights has a long and racially problematic past, and would likely end up as racially discriminatory if used in the future, because pretty much all standardized written exams measuring academic accomplishment end up with racially biased outcomes.
> 
> Discussion of this point beyond that probably qualifies as politics, so I will eave it at that.




If it's biased it's biased. Who cares...
This isn't 19th century.

I mean, 
people from Dinaric Alps are the tallest in the world
people from equatorial Africa have the longest "schlongs"
people from east Asia have the highest IQs,
people from Oceania have highest BMI,
etc...

you can take any category of humanity and find a country/continent/ethnicity/religion that is best/worst in that given category.


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> If it's biased it's biased. Who cares...
> This isn't 19th century.




*Mod Note:*
Okay, fine.  I gave you an easy out, but you chose not to take it. 

This sub-topic is now closed.  Further discussion of use of tests to control voting rights will get you booted from the thread.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> You really have no idea how you come off do you?




I am quite aware.  Thanks for your input.


----------



## FrozenNorth

Horwath said:


> If it's biased it's biased. Who cares...
> This isn't 19th century.



I’ll try to avoid getting political to avoid moderation.

Voting is a collective responsability.  The fact that the “average” 18-year old may not show a great deal of sober judgment is not a reason to prevent them from voting.  The voting population as a whole should demonstrate sufficient maturity and sober judgment to outweigh an 18-year old who writes in “Your *nus” on their ballot (keeping examples apolitical).

If your electorate as a whole (or simply in sufficient numbers) fails to demonstrate maturity and sober judgment in their voting behaviour, than the response is better teaching of civics in school and other measures to both increase turnout and inform the public.

Even though voting is a collective responsability, it is also an individual action.  I absolutely reserve the right to judge you if you spend your tome complaining about the government but never vote, or choose to go out to public places while a pandemic is going on.

Although once again, I will probably cut you a little slack if you are a teenager as opposed to a senior citizen.


----------



## Zardnaar

They think they might be able to contain/mitigate it here still a'la South Korea, Singapore.

Coronavirus: Can New Zealand follow Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong in containing the spread?

People are doing the social isolation thing,  and tracking of infected people's movement.

They shut a school and tested all contacts.

No deaths yet, and they're doubling ICU capacity. No one in hospital sick either positive cases are in isolation.

The velvet glove is being used by the government. Trying to drum the concept into my wife's family. I can't tell her anything and that's normally fine but they still want to do family get togathers. 

 Their idea if self isolation is family only mines more on a house hold level. You can't avoid all contact but you can minimise and Saturday lunches are not needed.

Getting sick of "it's to hard with the kids". Different generations I suppose I was raised children seen not heard, now it's do whatever the hell you want. 

Relative to most countries I'm optimistic. Downside we're still Anglo Saxons culturally, can't tell me what to do!!!. We're a bit saner than most though so maybe.

They haven't locked down everything yet, wouldn't be surprised if it's the end if the week.

Sat in a hill with the wife yesterday looking over the ocean. Was serene. That's not gonna last much longer.


----------



## Coroc

reelo said:


> "I'm young and healthy, this won't affect me much" is the Millennial's version of "I'm old, I don't care about climate change."
> Two sides of the same coin.




And equally stupid. 
First (according to official info) also younger people can develop complications with Corona, and second the problem with this pandemic is that it requires ICU beds for the severe cases. 
So the youngster having an infected appendix or bycicle accident will get no ICU bed, if all are blocked by severe corona cases.

And many people have grandparents and many people have children and grandchildren, to be ignorant about something, could endanger someone you care about, or even if you got no relatives, someone a friend of you cares about.

Still, the climate crisis is something i see far more relaxed than this outbreak with all of its possible cosequences, not only for people but also for the economy.


----------



## Coroc

FrozenNorth said:


> .... The voting population as a whole should demonstrate sufficient maturity and sober judgment to outweigh an 18-year old who writes in “Your *nus” on their ballot ...




Lol
Well but sometimes said youngster might prove more sober judgement than most  with applying this statement to the ballot  dont you think so?


----------



## Zardnaar

Coroc said:


> Lol
> Well but sometimes said youngster might prove more sober judgement than most  with applying this statement to the ballot  dont you think so?




The young generally don't vote anyway at least in numbers.

I did when I turned 18. It was also the age when I discovered bubbles where the home town candidate does great locally and the crashes and burns everywhere else.

 Generation X had Nirvana and an F you attitude. I don't think the attitude has improved (or the music).


----------



## FrogReaver

So curious - can we estimate cases in an area due to hospitilizations in the area?


----------



## Azzy

One of old friends started a Facebook group for my old high school D&D group to get together and schedule a D&D game on Roll20 during the quarrantine. Should be a blast.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> So curious - can we estimate cases in an area due to hospitilizations in the area?




Probably not.

I'm running my own personal calculations based on response vs countries healthcare system. Basically using Italy as a baseline of bad and Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore as good.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> Probably not.
> 
> I'm running my own personal calculations based on response vs countries healthcare system. Basically using Italy as a baseline of bad and Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore as good.




I've been doing my personal U.S. calcs for how fast it's growing in U.S.

Cases are quadrupling here every 5 days (maybe a little quicker) since Mar 1.  Not sure how much is actual spread and how much of it is increased testing.  Probably a combination of both.


----------



## HarbingerX

There's not really enough good data yet to be able to figure out how many undiagnosed cases there are. You'd have to have a region where it has completely run it's course.

Here in Canada we knew we were in trouble when traveler returned from Las Vegas and tested positive, yet at the time Nevada had no reported cases. Statistically you have to have a lot of cases before you start exporting.

For doubling rates, this is probably your best site: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research

US is currently at x2.2 every 2 days, but part of that is testing backlog reports. It was about every 4 days before. So it fluctuates a lot day to day.


----------



## HarbingerX

The big thing is how many acute care beds are available. I think the US is somewhere around 65000. So how many cases do you have to have before that capacity is filled? For some reason, the reported 'acute case' rate is not being reported for the US - it's been at 64 for well over a week now. This means it's impossible to tell close to capacity the system is yet.


----------



## Sadras

Zardnaar said:


> People are doing the social isolation thing,  and tracking of infected people's movement.
> 
> They shut a school and tested all contacts.




That seems like the best way to do it, but here in South Africa there is a laissez-faire attitude. They are not hunting for the infected which means Italy and Spain will very much be a reality here particularly if one of the townships or African homelands become infected given the number living with TB and HIV.

Perhaps the only saving grace might be the warmer climate - but this virus seems to survive in every condition.


----------



## HarbingerX

Sadras said:


> That seems like the best way to do it, but here in South Africa there is a laissez-faire attitude. They are not hunting for the infected which means Italy and Spain will very much be a reality here particularly if one of the townships or African homelands become infected given the number living with TB and HIV.
> 
> Perhaps the only saving grace might be the warmer climate - but this virus seems to survive in every condition.




I fear for much of sub-saharan Africa. So far this virus has shown itself to be very good at transmission.


----------



## FrogReaver

HarbingerX said:


> The big thing is how many acute care beds are available. I think the US is somewhere around 65000. So how many cases do you have to have before that capacity is filled? For some reason, the reported 'acute case' rate is not being reported for the US - it's been at 64 for well over a week now. This means it's impossible to tell close to capacity the system is yet.




I had thought that 64 looked drastically low.  Good to know.


----------



## Zardnaar

HarbingerX said:


> The big thing is how many acute care beds are available. I think the US is somewhere around 65000. So how many cases do you have to have before that capacity is filled? For some reason, the reported 'acute case' rate is not being reported for the US - it's been at 64 for well over a week now. This means it's impossible to tell close to capacity the system is yet.




Apparently 15% is serious and 5% critical.

Multiply 65000 by 20 and say 5.

Might give you a range.

Ours is 3500 but they're working on doubling that.

We've gone to alert 2, I'm expect alert 3 in a few days or by Friday at the latest.

59 cases no deaths. Alert 2 is non essential businesses asked to shut down. Alert 3 is told to shut down. Alert 4 is everything shut down but the essentials.

They've made a list of essential businesses. Food, medicine, freight, food production.

My wife's in freight,at least I know where supplies are going.


----------



## seebs

HarbingerX said:


> I fear for much of sub-saharan Africa. So far this virus has shown itself to be very good at transmission.




Possibly ironically, a lot of Africa is better prepared than, say, the US, because they've had Ebola outbreaks and they are actively maintaining resources, training, and practice in dealing with and shutting down epidemics.


----------



## FrogReaver

USA surpassed Germany in total cases.  About half of all cases in New York.

USA is now #4 country in most cases.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Many people in Mexico were saying how they need to close the borders to the US so they don't get the virus there.  Well, several wealthy Mexican who went to Colorado to ski all tested positive after returning home.  So it looks like it will spread throughout Mexico as well.  Which is horrible news to that nation's poor population


----------



## Celebrim

FrogReaver said:


> USA surpassed Germany in total cases.  About half of all cases in New York.
> 
> USA is now #4 country in most cases.




We're going to need to close the internal border with New York to all but commercial traffic. 

The most recent numbers out of Washington look good. I'm really praying that most of America has taken social distancing seriously so we can kill this wyrm before it gets large. 

New York is going to be ugly.  New Orleans could get ugly.  Fingers crossed most of the rest of the country will recover.


----------



## FrogReaver

Celebrim said:


> We're going to need to close the internal border with New York to all but commercial traffic.
> 
> The most recent numbers out of Washington look good. I'm really praying that most of America has taken social distancing seriously so we can kill this wyrm before it gets large.
> 
> New York is going to be ugly.  New Orleans could get ugly.  Fingers crossed most of the rest of the country will recover.




I took a drive around town today.  Live on the Virginia-Tennessee border.  Walmart parking lot jam packed.  Almost looked like a typical Saturday at 2pm.  One restaurant had a big banner saying their lobby as open.  My area doesn't have it bad - but their are rumors hospitals are starting to have cases.  Nothing announced on the news yet though.  Which to me most likely means is spreading fast and underreported/undertested.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> I took a drive around town today.  Live on the Virginia-Tennessee border.  Walmart parking lot jam packed.  Almost looked like a typical Saturday at 2pm.  One restaurant had a big banner saying their lobby as open.  My area doesn't have it bad - but their are rumors hospitals are starting to have cases.  Nothing announced on the news yet though.  Which to me most likely means is spreading fast and underreported/undertested.




They're tracing anyone positive here and self isolating them with checks.

Talked a friend yesterday on Facebook. She asked how bad was it so asked her did she want the blunt version or the soft version.

  She asked for blunt, asked her if she knew about Italy. She didn't so sent her links to Reuters and BBC Italy.


----------



## Celebrim

FrogReaver said:


> I took a drive around town today.  Live on the Virginia-Tennessee border.  Walmart parking lot jam packed.  Almost looked like a typical Saturday at 2pm.  One restaurant had a big banner saying their lobby as open.  My area doesn't have it bad - but their are rumors hospitals are starting to have cases.  Nothing announced on the news yet though.  Which to me most likely means is spreading fast and underreported/undertested.




Everywhere that doesn't take it seriously is going to regret it later.


----------



## MarkB

FrogReaver said:


> I took a drive around town today.  Live on the Virginia-Tennessee border.  Walmart parking lot jam packed.  Almost looked like a typical Saturday at 2pm.  One restaurant had a big banner saying their lobby as open.  My area doesn't have it bad - but their are rumors hospitals are starting to have cases.  Nothing announced on the news yet though.  Which to me most likely means is spreading fast and underreported/undertested.



Anyone who couldn't get out much during the week because they were working from home is trying to do their shopping this weekend. Here in England the Sunday trading laws mean most supermarkets open either 10am-4pm or 11am-5pm, and I fully expect cars to be queuing down the street at the stores' respective opening times as people try to get into the theoretically freshly-stocked shops. I'll be steering well clear.


----------



## HarbingerX

seebs said:


> Possibly ironically, a lot of Africa is better prepared than, say, the US, because they've had Ebola outbreaks and they are actively maintaining resources, training, and practice in dealing with and shutting down epidemics.




I don't hear anything about african governments taking it seriously. So it will be too late by the time they react.


----------



## Celebrim

HarbingerX said:


> I don't hear anything about african governments taking it seriously. So it will be too late by the time they react.




There are only two things that could at this point save the developing world from carnage.

First, it does seem that there is more limited community spread in very warm climates than cooler ones. Most of the known cases in the tropics have been travellers. That said, there is not no spread, so the R0 even if suppressed still appears to be above 1 in hot climates.

Second, we can only hope the Chinese and French are right about quinine being an effective therapy.  It's readily available in tropical countries and inexpensive, so it would really be a Godsend if it works.


----------



## FrogReaver

More Bad news in the U.S.  Reports from LA County California where doctors are advised to not test unless it would impact treatment.

LA County shifts from containing coronavirus, advises doctors to skip testing of some patients: report


----------



## Todd Roybark

Sacrosanct said:


> So it looks like it will spread throughout Mexico as well.




This is something @MoonSong, was referencing, Pres. Obrador, is personally acting as if there is no virus.  



FrogReaver said:


> Reports from LA County California where doctors are advised to not test unless it would impact treatment.




Tests are taking a week, for results to come back, so at this point, L.A., is just waiting for the Delayed Blast Fireball to go off, and then we can start managing the damage.

On the _plus side_ City Ordinances regarding transporting Cocktails has been relaxed, so if you are too ill to make your own libation, you can have one delivered.


----------



## FrogReaver

Todd Roybark said:


> This is something @MoonSong, was referencing, Pres. Obrador, is personally acting as if there is no virus.
> 
> 
> 
> Tests are taking a week, for results to come back, so at this point, L.A., is just waiting for the Delayed Blast Fireball to go off, and then we can start managing the damage.
> 
> On the _plus side_ City Ordinances regarding transporting Cocktails has been relaxed, so if you are too ill to make your own libation, you can have one delivered.




Well at least we won't have to watch the world go to hell without our booze!

The testing delay is kind of a big deal.  It means our actual numbers are at least a week behind where the reported numbers are.  That coupled with our lack of tests means there's no telling just how high currently infected in U.S. are at this point.


----------



## FrogReaver

So, I'm looking at the death rate in the U.S.  It seems to be that deaths are doubling about every 4 days.  Cases are doubling about every 2.5 (probably a little lower).

Thoughts on what that means?


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Well at least we won't have to watch the world go to hell without our booze!
> 
> The testing delay is kind of a big deal.  It means our actual numbers are at least a week behind where the reported numbers are.  That coupled with our lack of tests means there's no telling just how high currently infected in U.S. are at this point.






FrogReaver said:


> So, I'm looking at the death rate in the U.S.  It seems to be that deaths are doubling about every 4 days.  Cases are doubling about every 2.5 (probably a little lower).
> 
> Thoughts on what that means?




Not enough testing probably.

They can't test everyone but are they doing trace testing?


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> Not enough testing probably.




Thinking is that we are in a bubble due to tests being behind?



> They can't test everyone but are they doing trace testing?




I don't know.  I know in some places the message is already starting to be don't test unless it will make a difference in how they are being treated.


----------



## FrogReaver

I'm finding the USA death count to be very low in comparison to where other countries were at this time.  Huge outlier.


----------



## CleverNickName

It's easy to have fewer confirmed cases than any other country:  just don't confirm the cases.  Done.
It's like magic, except terrible.


----------



## CleverNickName

Back to the topic at hand:


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> I'm finding the USA death count to be very low in comparison to where other countries were at this time.  Huge outlier.




Give it time.

USA has some advantages over other nations. Italy for example older population, Catholic, more smokers,mass tourism in a concentrated area, and different cultural norms in greetings. 

Also travellers were banned in January or early February.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> Give it time.
> 
> USA has some advantages over other nations. Italy for example older population, Catholic, more smokers,mass tourism in a concentrated area, and different cultural norms in greetings.
> 
> Also travellers were banned in January or early February.




Travelers were only banned from China and such at those early dates.  Europe travel was still wide open till a little over a week ago.

The demographics may help.  People are pretty spread out outside of large cities.  It's just the official death count of 301 is unbelievably low for 23,000 cases - found with extremely limited testing - especially compared to other nations with similar case numbers.  

Maybe it's still a little early as it took other countries a bit longer to rise so fast in cases.  But it does make me question our numbers overall.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Travelers were only banned from China and such at those early dates.  Europe travel was still wide open till a little over a week ago.
> 
> The demographics may help.  People are pretty spread out outside of large cities.  It's just the official death count of 301 is unbelievably low for 23,000 cases - found with extremely limited testing - especially compared to other nations with similar case numbers.
> 
> Maybe it's still a little early as it took other countries a bit longer to rise so fast in cases.  But it does make me question our numbers overall.




 Early days. A handful of people with the virus may have entered the states while a tour group to Italy could of spread it idk. 

 Italy's average age is older, more smoke cigarettes etc. More probably go to church and have communion.


----------



## ad_hoc

Here is a good site to see USA data.

Currently 180 000 tested with 23 000 positive tests.









						The Data
					

Our most up-to-date data on COVID-19 in the US.




					covidtracking.com
				





Compare that to Canada with over 120 000 tests completed and 1 000 confirmed cases. 

Medical professionals believe that testing is key to containing COVID 19 and site it as a major reason why South Korea has done so well. The USA has tested about 500 people per million population compared to SK's 6000 per million (and Canada's 3500).


----------



## Ogre Mage

ad_hoc said:


> Medical professionals believe that testing is key to containing COVID 19 and site it as a major reason why South Korea has done so well. The USA has tested about 500 people per million population compared to SK's 6000 per million (and Canada's 3500).




The slowness of COVID-19 testing in the United States is an abysmal failure.  This happened because the federal government refused the World Health Organization test because they wanted to develop their own.  But the Center for Disease Control put out a defective test!  Then there were more delays getting a new one as we lost critical weeks to contain COVID-19.  Individual states had to start scrambling to develop their own test.  It is a public health and economic fiasco now.  I live in Washington State and we are paying the price for this.

This is an article about how much better South Korea is doing at testing than the U.S.

U.S. vs South Korea coronavirus response


----------



## ad_hoc

Ogre Mage said:


> The slowness of COVID-19 testing in the United States is an abysmal failure.  This happened because the federal government refused the World Health Organization test because they wanted to develop their own.  But the Center for Disease Control put out a defective test!  Then there were more delays getting a new one as we lost critical weeks to contain COVID-19.  Individuals states had to start scrambling to develop their own test.  It is a public health and economic fiasco now.  I live in Washington State and we are paying the price for this.
> 
> This is an article about how much better South Korea is doing at testing than the U.S.
> 
> U.S. vs South Korea coronavirus response




Wow.

The height of hubris.

I've seen clips of Conservative Governors urging people to go to restaurants to support businesses and the spring break beach parties.

Looks like we're on track to see the real catastrophe be what happens in the USA.


----------



## Ogre Mage

ad_hoc said:


> Wow.
> 
> The height of hubris.
> 
> I've seen clips of Conservative Governors urging people to go to restaurants to support businesses and the spring break beach parties.
> 
> Looks like we're on track to see the real catastrophe be what happens in the USA.




This is an article in _The Seattle Times _reporting on the CDC testing debacle:



> The first 90 CDC test kits went out on Feb. 6 and 7 to labs in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. By Feb. 8, some public health labs started reporting problems with validating the tests, finding “sporadic reactivity in the negative control,” the CDC said. That resulted in inconclusive test results.
> 
> The faulty tests affected most public health labs, including Washington State’s Department of Health (DOH) laboratory. Testing at all but eight labs nationwide ceased while the CDC tried to fix the problem, Becker said.
> 
> As the testing lapse dragged on for two and a half weeks, lab officials started getting “very anxious that we did not have eyes on the community,” Becker said. By then, the virus had been spreading for weeks.




A coronavirus testing debacle


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> I'm finding the USA death count to be very low in comparison to where other countries were at this time.  Huge outlier.




Perhaps... our cases are spread out among several major metropolitan areas, so that none of the hospitals are swamped yet.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> Perhaps... our cases are spread out among several major metropolitan areas, so that none of the hospitals are swamped yet.




Maybe.  Maybe not.  The numbers seem unusually low even with that taken into consideration IMO.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> Maybe.  Maybe not.  The numbers seem unusually low even with that taken into consideration IMO.




I mean this as no disrespect, but opinions don't mean anything in this situation.  Everyone's got an opinion, and go look and see how many of them are wrong - this is not a situation our intuition works well in.  And the virus does not care about our opinions.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> I mean this as no disrespect, but opinions don't mean anything in this situation.  Everyone's got an opinion, and go look and see how many of them are wrong - this is not a situation our intuition works well in.  And the virus does not care about our opinions.




?????????????????????????????


----------



## FrogReaver

Another article on change in direction on testing.

In hard-hit areas, testing restricted to health care workers, hospital patients


----------



## ad_hoc

The death rate compared to confirmed cases exactly matches that of Canada.

Canada has 1 000 confirmed cases and 13 deaths.
USA has 23 000 confirmed cases and 300 deaths.

1.3% in both cases.

There are many factors which could contribute to that low number. Hospitals not being overwhelmed yet is probably among the top.

We're going to be in a much different place in a month.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> The death rate compared to confirmed cases exactly matches that of Canada.
> 
> Canada has 1 000 confirmed cases and 13 deaths.
> USA has 23 000 confirmed cases and 300 deaths.
> 
> 1.3% in both cases.
> 
> There are many factors which could contribute to that low number. Hospitals not being overwhelmed yet is probably among the top.
> 
> We're going to be in a much different place in a month.




Here are/were the numbers in various countries around our case count or their max.  I highlighted the ones that are major outliers.





Corrected Chart!


----------



## FrogReaver

deleted


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Here are/were the numbers in various countries around our case count or their max.  I highlighted the ones that are major outliers.
> 
> View attachment 120110
> 
> Corrected Chart!




 Germany has one of the best health system s in the world.

 Italy is also a perfect storm scenario for the virus with somewhat accurate statistics.


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> Here are/were the numbers in various countries around our case count or their max.  I highlighted the ones that are major outliers.
> 
> View attachment 120110
> 
> Corrected Chart!




Those numbers are all over the place.

Your data shows that the USA is not actually an outlier here.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> Those numbers are all over the place.
> 
> Your data shows that the USA is not actually an outlier here.




Curious why you say that?  The way I'm reading it is that virtually every country with 14000+ cases has significantly more deaths than we do


----------



## Ogre Mage

ad_hoc said:


> The death rate compared to confirmed cases exactly matches that of Canada.
> 
> Canada has 1 000 confirmed cases and 13 deaths.
> USA has 23 000 confirmed cases and 300 deaths.
> 
> 1.3% in both cases.
> 
> There are many factors which could contribute to that low number. Hospitals not being overwhelmed yet is probably among the top.
> 
> We're going to be in a much different place in a month.




That is my fear also.  Based on the reporting that I am reading, U.S. hospitals are stretched thin right now but they have not yet hit the "breaking point."  But based on the increasing number of cases, that point is coming.  

For me personally, the "wake up" moment happened when I found out simultaneously that Tom Hanks (who was in Australia at the time), Sophie Trudeau and an NBA player all had the coronavirus.  Combined with what was happening in my home state I thought "this s**t is everywhere."


----------



## Zardnaar

Anyone else watch ADVChina/Laowhy 86/SerpentZA on YouTube?

 They started covering it in January. They lived in China for about 10 years but left about a year ago.


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> Curious why you say that?  The way I'm reading it is that virtually every country with 14000+ cases has significantly more deaths than we do




We can get very specific if we want to twist the data. If we only look at countries on that chart between 24000 and 27999 cases then yes USA looks like an outlier.

The outliers there are Germany and Austria. There are plenty of countries on that chart alone who have low deaths per confirmed cases.

Really though, the numbers are all over the place. We don't get much info from that chart alone other than higher confirmed cases in general leads to more deaths.


----------



## ad_hoc

The Canadian Federal Health Minister stated today that we're going to need to prepare for months of social distancing, not weeks.

We're all going to need to look at our lives and decide how to live in this new paradigm as well as what is important contact to have.

Personally, I'm going to keep playing with my D&D group.


----------



## Sadras

Zardnaar said:


> Anyone else watch ADVChina/Laowhy 86/SerpentZA on YouTube?
> 
> They started covering it in January. They lived in China for about 10 years but left about a year ago.




Some posters that I have seen on line have commented saying they are a little biased, accused them of being arrogant and even misogynist. I have not seen enough of their videos, neither have I visited China to gain form my own perspective so I guess just be attentive when watching their vlogs for such themes, just in case.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sadras said:


> Some posters that I have seen on line have commented saying they are little biased, accused them of being arrogant and even misogynist. I have not seen enough of their videos, neither have I visited China to gain form my own perspective so I guess just be attentive when watching their vlogs for such themes, just in case.




  I can kinda see that. I don't watch them religiously but they've gained attention from the CCP counterpropaganda as well.

Some of their videos have been great, others not so much.

 They have admitted that they spent so much time over there they absorbed the local views.


----------



## seebs

FrogReaver said:


> Curious why you say that?  The way I'm reading it is that virtually every country with 14000+ cases has significantly more deaths than we do




We're huge, which means that 14k for us is significantly earlier in the curve than 14k for a country with 1/5 the population or less, which means earlier in the epidemic, and people take time to die.


----------



## FrogReaver

seebs said:


> We're huge, which means that 14k for us is significantly earlier in the curve than 14k for a country with 1/5 the population or less, which means earlier in the epidemic, and people take time to die.




That's not really how exponential growth works.  14k for us is presumably the same as 14k for them (some variation for social distancing and such)

Now maybe 14k of them means their hospitals are already overloaded while ours are not.  I don't think that's the case for the European countries though.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> We can get very specific if we want to twist the data. If we only look at countries on that chart between 24000 and 27999 cases then yes USA looks like an outlier.
> 
> The outliers there are Germany and Austria. There are plenty of countries on that chart alone who have low deaths per confirmed cases.
> 
> Really though, the numbers are all over the place. We don't get much info from that chart alone other than higher confirmed cases in general leads to more deaths.




You shouldn't accuse others of twisting data.  

Low deaths per confirmed case when the total number of cases are low may also just mean they haven't had the virus in that country for long enough for the deaths to increase which is why I was discounting those countries numbers.

The numbers aren't as tightly grouped yet.  Give it another week or so and we will see if those countries with low numbers of deaths per case stay that way or start increasing in deaths faster than cases.


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> You shouldn't accuse others of twisting data.
> 
> Low deaths per confirmed case when the total number of cases are low may also just mean they haven't had the virus in that country for long enough for the deaths to increase which is why I was discounting those countries numbers.
> 
> The numbers aren't as tightly grouped yet.  Give it another week or so and we will see if those countries with low numbers of deaths per case stay that way or start increasing in deaths faster than cases.




So you're coming up with a reasoning for one case yet are discounting a multitude of possible reasonings for the USA situation.

We just don't have the information. It is impossible to look at a chart of confirmed cases vs deaths and find conclusions.

There are so many variables. I am not an expert and don't have the data. I doubt you are either.

Just admit you don't know.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> So you're coming up with a reasoning for one case yet are discounting a multitude of possible reasonings for the USA situation.
> 
> We just don't have the information. It is impossible to look at a chart of confirmed cases vs deaths and find conclusions.
> 
> There are so many variables. I am not an expert and don't have the data. I doubt you are either.
> 
> Just admit you don't know.




That's why I said USA deaths* looks* like an outlier....


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

ad_hoc said:


> So you're coming up with a reasoning for one case yet are discounting a multitude of possible reasonings for the USA situation.
> 
> We just don't have the information. It is impossible to look at a chart of confirmed cases vs deaths and find conclusions.
> 
> There are so many variables. I am not an expert and don't have the data. I doubt you are either.
> 
> Just admit you don't know.




Yeah, some people are concentrated in large cities, which could be compared with small countries, and other people are spread out more.

So people here wanting to make something of the US numbers should really look at it state by state, with special consideration for the metro areas.

For example, the latest numbers for my state of Virginia is 219 positive test results and 3 deaths, or 1.35% death rate so far. And most of our numbers are concentrated up by DC, which is not a surprise. But without looking up the numbers, I am sure some parts of the US are far worse, like that mess in the Seattle-area nursing homes, where the health care workers took the virus from place to place as they were doing their jobs.

@FrogReaver  I think you said you are on the VA-TN border? There are now two cases in Lee county, which is where the VA part of Bristol is located.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Also, keep in mind that with closed borders, the US will face a massive shortage of migrant farm workers.  Which means food shortages and spoilage. Ideally one might think many Americans out of work could be working in the fields to replace them, but I doubt that will happen.

So be prepared if you can. Freeze produce that can be, and do your best to grow gardens yourself. Thankfully with the internet, there are countless videos out there that can show you the basics if you’ve never gardened before. And great ideas for small spaces in things like apartments. We did this during WWII, we can do it again.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sacrosanct said:


> Also, keep in mind that with closed borders, the US will face a massive shortage of migrant farm workers.  Which means food shortages and spoilage. Ideally one might think many Americans out of work could be working in the fields to replace them, but I doubt that will happen.
> 
> So be prepared if you can. Freeze produce that can be, and do your best to grow gardens yourself. Thankfully with the internet, there are countless videos out there that can show you the basics if you’ve never gardened before. And great ideas for small spaces in things like apartments. We did this during WWII, we can do it again.




Food production will be the only jobs available. 

 Wages will be garbage along with prices. 

 Brothers lost his job he's a pilot thankfully he has no mortage.  Sister's husband job is essential and is local government. Wife's job is essential area but they have to many staff so not sure what's gonna happen there.


----------



## ad_hoc

According to this site the US just saw an increase of 15 000 confirmed cases from yesterday to today bringing their total to 39 000. Placing them 3rd in the world behind China and Italy.

Things might get very bad very fast.









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,423,321 Cases and 2,703,987 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				




It also shows the amount of recovered cases.

Italy has the most deaths at 5500 but also have 7000 resolved cases.

The USA has 400 deaths but only 178 resolved cases. So the USA death count is low but most of the cases are new.


----------



## MoonSong

Sacrosanct said:


> Also, keep in mind that with closed borders, the US will face a massive shortage of migrant farm workers. Which means food shortages and spoilage. Ideally one might think many Americans out of work could be working in the fields to replace them, but I doubt that will happen.



Yeah, it won't happen, but not for the reasons you think. While it is low-skilled on paper, laborers are anything but. They have a very specialized skill set that takes years to perfect. Someone who didn't grow up doing it under the guide of an experienced laborer will not be able to endure it for long (even if on top fitness level) and won't be as productive. 

For farmers, hiring someone from the street to do the job borders on charity.


----------



## Sacrosanct

MoonSong said:


> Yeah, it won't happen, but not for the reasons you think. While it is low-skilled on paper, laborers are anything but. They have a very specialized skill set that takes years to perfect. Someone who didn't grow up doing it under the guide of an experienced laborer will not be able to endure it for long (even if on top fitness level) and won't be as productive.
> 
> For farmers, hiring someone from the street to do the job borders on charity.




Igrew up working on a farm, and in the berry fields. So I know exactly what you’re talking about.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> According to this site the US just saw an increase of 15 000 confirmed cases from yesterday to today bringing their total to 39 000. Placing them 3rd in the world behind China and Italy.
> 
> Things might get very bad very fast.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,423,321 Cases and 2,703,987 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It also shows the amount of recovered cases.
> 
> Italy has the most deaths at 5500 but also have 7000 resolved cases.
> 
> The USA has 400 deaths but only 178 resolved cases. So the USA death count is low but most of the cases are new.




that’s the site I’ve been using for numbers


----------



## Zardnaar

Sacrosanct said:


> Igrew up working on a farm, and in the berry fields. So I know exactly what you’re talking about.




Been there done that. Might have to do it again.

Brothers a pilot, grew up on a farm, I worked on one when I was younger.

He laughed when I said he might finish up on one as he has lost his job already.

Wife's in freight behind the scenes there's been a collapse in that already. Her company is the largest in the country and a lot of ex customers have returned. The smaller companies are screwed.

Not sure her job is safe but looking at welfare possibilities. Already checked the sites.

Comic book stores and gamestores probably gone. Old one was closing soon anyway, new one was opening up but I suspect we'll be in lockdown by April 4. Apparently the landlord is being a hard ass with the lease, I would hardball back just refuse to pay its not like the courts will be open.


----------



## seebs

FrogReaver said:


> That's not really how exponential growth works.  14k for us is presumably the same as 14k for them (some variation for social distancing and such)




Exponential growth starts with some number, and our starting number is probably larger than theirs, because we have more people to begin with, so more of our citizens returning from elsewhere probably had the virus. Similarly, our upper bound is significantly larger; we can double our number of cases 2-3 times more than a lot of other countries can.

Think about a hypothetical country with 100,000 people. For them, 14k is 14% of their population. That is going to happen about the same point in their curve that 14% of the population would take in our curve, because we've got many more people in many more different cities, etcetera.

So, basically: Don't think "starting from 1, how long does it take to get to 14k". Think "starting from 1-in-a-million, how long does it take to get to 14k". So for Italy, that'd be 60 to 14k, and for the US, it'd be 330 to 14k, which is to say, we're earlier in the curve.



> Now maybe 14k of them means their hospitals are already overloaded while ours are not.  I don't think that's the case for the European countries though.




How many people at once do you think can be taken care of by hospitals for a given population size, usually?

Italy tends to about 3ish hospital beds per 1k population, the US to a bit lower. But of course, some of those are already in use; estimates look like rough order of about half a free bed per 1k population, but they only have about half as many ICU slots per capita as we do. So in theory Italy as a whole might have, say, about 30k hospital beds available, for 60M population, while we have similar-ish numbers per capita, but about 330M people, so we have probably about 160k available beds. So 14k would be about half of all their theoretically available beds, and that means that a lot of specific places are badly overflowing already, while 14k here would be a much smaller proportion... so far. In the last day, the source I checked showed us with 8k new cases, Italy with 5k new cases. They're at about 60k total, we're only at about 32k, but we'll run past them, easily, in total numbers. (Consider: If we keep it to 20% of our population, that will be more cases than if 100% of their population got sick.)


----------



## FrogReaver

seebs said:


> Exponential growth starts with some number, and our starting number is probably larger than theirs, because we have more people to begin with, so more of our citizens returning from elsewhere probably had the virus. Similarly, our upper bound is significantly larger; we can double our number of cases 2-3 times more than a lot of other countries can.
> 
> Think about a hypothetical country with 100,000 people. For them, 14k is 14% of their population. That is going to happen about the same point in their curve that 14% of the population would take in our curve, because we've got many more people in many more different cities, etcetera.
> 
> So, basically: Don't think "starting from 1, how long does it take to get to 14k". Think "starting from 1-in-a-million, how long does it take to get to 14k". So for Italy, that'd be 60 to 14k, and for the US, it'd be 330 to 14k, which is to say, we're earlier in the curve.
> 
> 
> 
> How many people at once do you think can be taken care of by hospitals for a given population size, usually?
> 
> Italy tends to about 3ish hospital beds per 1k population, the US to a bit lower. But of course, some of those are already in use; estimates look like rough order of about half a free bed per 1k population, but they only have about half as many ICU slots per capita as we do. So in theory Italy as a whole might have, say, about 30k hospital beds available, for 60M population, while we have similar-ish numbers per capita, but about 330M people, so we have probably about 160k available beds. So 14k would be about half of all their theoretically available beds, and that means that a lot of specific places are badly overflowing already, while 14k here would be a much smaller proportion... so far. In the last day, the source I checked showed us with 8k new cases, Italy with 5k new cases. They're at about 60k total, we're only at about 32k, but we'll run past them, easily, in total numbers. (Consider: If we keep it to 20% of our population, that will be more cases than if 100% of their population got sick.)




Also
italy is slowing down the spread. We aren’t yet


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> Also
> italy is slowing down the spread. We aren’t yet




We don't test enough to know if we are slowing down the spread or not, and where we are slowing the spread.  That's a major issue with the numbers - as we ramp up testing, we will see growth in the number of cases, even if there are no new cases at all.  So, the number of tested cases doesn't currently tell us about spread of disease - it tells us about spread of testing.


----------



## FrogReaver

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Yeah, some people are concentrated in large cities, which could be compared with small countries, and other people are spread out more.
> 
> So people here wanting to make something of the US numbers should really look at it state by state, with special consideration for the metro areas.
> 
> For example, the latest numbers for my state of Virginia is 219 positive test results and 3 deaths, or 1.35% death rate so far. And most of our numbers are concentrated up by DC, which is not a surprise. But without looking up the numbers, I am sure some parts of the US are far worse, like that mess in the Seattle-area nursing homes, where the health care workers took the virus from place to place as they were doing their jobs.
> 
> @FrogReaver  I think you said you are on the VA-TN border? There are now two cases in Lee county, which is where the VA part of Bristol is located.




Yep Bristol is nearby - but Bristol is more Washington county than Lee county ( it's technically independent)  With Lee county seeing cases though, I think it's pretty safe to conclude it's probably all over this area as that's quite a bit more remote (measuring distance from interstates) than the Bristol, Kingsport or Johnson City area I live in.  I hadn't heard about those cases till you mentioned them.  Thanks.

Also, I think you may have explained the spread in the U.S.  The cases are spread all over which likely means many of those areas haven't had cases for 14 days+ yet.  Means many areas haven't caught up to the curve in terms of what deaths will likely look like.  Great point!


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> We don't test enough to know if we are slowing down the spread or not, and where we are slowing the spread.  That's a major issue with the numbers - as we ramp up testing, we will see growth in the number of cases, even if there are no new cases at all.  So, the number of tested cases doesn't currently tell us about spread of disease - it tells us about spread of testing.




I mean there will be a week lag or so between that happening - but we will start seeing the slow down in cases if it's happening eventually even with more testing.


----------



## Zardnaar

Testing rate probably doesn't matter now. Count the body bags in a few weeks.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> Testing rate probably doesn't matter now. Count the body bags and a few weeks.




Well - it might matter in terms of how they classify the deaths as from coronavirus or not?


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Well - it might matter in terms of how they classify the deaths as from coronavirus or not?




 That's just book keeping at that point. Just use the symptoms, doesn't have to be that exact.


----------



## FrogReaver

FrogReaver said:


> I mean there will be a week lag or so between that happening - but we will start seeing the slow down in cases if it's happening eventually even with more testing.




My bigger concern with testing rate is that some places are already starting to say don't test unless it will make a difference in treatment - which is artificially lowering the numbers by lowering the amount of tests.

I think shifting to death count will probably yield a better picture for when we actually start slowing this thing down.


----------



## Zardnaar

Might help someone if you get sick.

Seems in most cases you're fine and it's over in a few days.









						Coronavirus: Kiwi reveals his illness ordeal under lockdown in Austria
					

A Kiwi suspected to have contracted coronavirus in Austria details his debilitating experience under lockdown.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> I mean there will be a week lag or so between that happening - but we will start seeing the slow down in cases if it's happening eventually even with more testing.




It could take more than a week. 

You find the true rate of infection in the population if you take representative samples of the population.  The is specifically _not_ what we are doing in the USA.  We don't have the testing capability to do it, and doing so would not directly help the mitigation efforts. 

We are specifically testing people who we have reason to believe are infected - they are showing symptoms, and have had contact with a known case, or have been to places where there's community transmission.  If you only test in that population, and your rate or testing is rising, the number of cases you find can continue to rise for several weeks, even if the actual rate of infection in the population is dropping.

Note:  I am not saying the rate of infection in the population is dropping.  I'm saying that the testing regimen we have does not, and _is not designed or intended to_, track the rate of infection in the population.  So, we shouldn't use it for that.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> It could take more than a week.
> 
> You find the true rate of infection in the population if you take representative samples of the population.  The is specifically _not_ what we are doing in the USA.  We don't have the testing capability to do it, and doing so would not directly help the mitigation efforts.
> 
> We are specifically testing people who we have reason to believe are infected - they are showing symptoms, and have had contact with a known case, or have been to places where there's community transmission.  If you only test in that population, and your rate or testing is rising, the number of cases you find can continue to rise for several weeks, even if the actual rate of infection in the population is dropping.
> 
> Note:  I am not saying the rate of infection in the population is dropping.  I'm saying that the testing regimen we have does not, and _is not designed or intended to_, track the rate of infection in the population.  So, we shouldn't use it for that.




we are in agreement there then


----------



## Zardnaar

We're in lockdown nation wide in 48 hours. 

Partial lockdown until then. All bars, restaurants etc closed. All public stuff cancelled, schools closing except for essential services kids closed completely in 48 hours.


----------



## MoonSong

Sacrosanct said:


> Igrew up working on a farm, and in the berry fields. So I know exactly what you’re talking about.



Ok, then it is exactly for the reasons you're thinking of... n_n


Zardnaar said:


> Comic book stores and gamestores probably gone. Old one was closing soon anyway, new one was opening up but I suspect we'll be in lockdown by April 4. Apparently the landlord is being a hard ass with the lease, I would hardball back just refuse to pay its not like the courts will be open.



Game stores have a better chance of making it. Less more-valuable items and a bit of better foot traffic. Comic Book stores, on the other hand, are done for...

Good luck with the landlord.



Zardnaar said:


> That's just book keeping at that point. Just use the symptoms, doesn't have to be that exact.



I'm not sure there's another disease which main symptom is "your lungs turn into a pinkish liquid"


----------



## FrogReaver




----------



## Ogre Mage

I am thinking this coronavirus could be a campaign theme for a Forgotten Realms campaign in which Talona has risen to the status of a Greater God.  She is wreaking havoc across Faerun.  The party is fighting against her forces of pestilence.  You'll want some paladins, clerics and/or druids in that party, lol.


----------



## FrogReaver

So now we know why the cleric didn't heal everyone in the town - exponential growth@!


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> Ok, then it is exactly for the reasons you're thinking of... n_n
> 
> Game stores have a better chance of making it. Less more-valuable items and a bit of better foot traffic. Comic Book stores, on the other hand, are done for...
> 
> Good luck with the landlord.
> 
> 
> I'm not sure there's another disease which main symptom is "your lungs turn into a pinkish liquid"




 Store wasn't open yet it was due to open April 4.

It can't open now anyway.


----------



## Ogre Mage

FrogReaver said:


> So now we know why the cleric didn't heal everyone in the town - exponential growth@!




Yep, a divine caster can only cast _lesser restoration _so many times per day.  In certain terrible cases _greater_ _restoration_ may even be required.  You can imagine the temples of the Good and Neutral gods frantically trying to create as many magical restoration scrolls/potions as possible, a race against time and resources similar to what we are having now.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

MoonSong said:


> I'm not sure there's another disease which main symptom is "your lungs turn into a pinkish liquid"



There are.  The hemorrhagic fevers would all do that.


----------



## Zardnaar

D&D isn't gonna do well after this.


----------



## Henry

Zardnaar said:


> D&D isn't gonna do well after this.



To the contrary, remote tabletop might soar to new heights, when some people can’t work and have nothing to do but play the cheapest hobby possible... can’t know for sure, but I do know streaming services are facing MASSIVE loads right now, so anything that allows you to both use the internet for cheap and talk to other human beings is king right now.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> D&D isn't gonna do well after this.



As an entertainment form, it will probably rebound more quickly and thoroughly  than those that depend on large gatherings.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> As an entertainment form, it will probably rebound more quickly and thoroughly  than those that depend on large gatherings.




 More selling it. It's gonna be a luxury item for the middle and upper class.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

To add to all the numbers for the US: sure, overall the confirmed number of cases has gone over 32k as of Sunday, but nearly half of those are just in the state of New York, and about half of that 16k in NYC itself, leaving the remaining 16-17k confirmed cases for the entire rest of the country. Now that is a crazy imbalance and I have no idea what it means for future infection rates.


----------



## Zardnaar

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> To add to all the numbers for the US: sure, overall the confirmed number of cases has gone over 32k as of Sunday, but nearly half of those are just in the state of New York, and about half of that 16k in NYC itself, leaving the remaining 16-17k confirmed cases for the entire rest of the country. Now that is a crazy imbalance and I have no idea what it means for future infection rates.




 Probably means NY has done testing. 

 I have American friends in Houston. They've been in self isolation last week. In her words "our governor's and idiot, our presidents an idiot" and they have a few guns. They're the sane ones. 

 And her sister is showing symptoms.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

To be sure, Texas’ Governor is leading from behind.  Almost every order he’s issued  is based on the prior orders of leaders at the city and county level.

So, for example, in the D/FW Metroplex, we had a patchwork of different rules covering the 4 counties and 25+ municipalities regarding crowd sizes and which businesses could stay open...and how they could offer services.  While some restaurants were trying to figure out how to handle shifting emphasis to take-out & delivery ONLY, a mile or two down the road, some of their competitors were still offering full dine-in service.

Even today, as Dallas County is under a shelter in place order, only a handful of other counties are doing likewise because the Gov didn’t order them to.  “What works for the big cities wont work for the small towns” or some such.

That patchwork approach is going to cost lives.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> To be sure, Texas’ Governor is leading from behind.  Almost every order he’s issued  is based on the prior orders of leaders at the city and county level.
> 
> So, for example, in the D/FW Metroplex, we had a patchwork of different rules covering the 4 counties and 25+ municipalities regarding crowd sizes and which businesses could stay open...and how they could offer services.  While some restaurants were trying to figure out how to handle shifting emphasis to take-out & delivery ONLY, a mile or two down the road, some of their competitors were still offering full dine-in service.
> 
> Even today, as Dallas County is under a shelter in place order, only a handful of other counties are doing likewise because the Gov didn’t order them to.  “What works for the big cities wont work for the small towns” or some such.
> 
> That patchwork approach is going to cost lives.




Australia is having similar issues not quite as bad but still.

  Well we have a week or two before things really hit the fan. Starting to love my PM she's doing great. 

Discussed playing with my wife but not really in the mood to run anything.

Watching season 1 of Survivor. Looking for tips.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Spelling it out nicely:


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hong Kong appeared to have the coronavirus under control, then it let its guard down
					

As the sudden surge in cases in Hong Kong shows, quarantines and social distancing must continue well beyond the initial wave of cases, if another round of infections is to be avoided.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Danny you are in Australia?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Me?  No.  Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex of North central Texas.

Why do you ask?


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Me?  No.  Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex of North central Texas.
> 
> Why do you ask?




 Think I confused you with someone else.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> Probably means NY has done testing.
> 
> I have American friends in Houston. They've been in self isolation last week. In her words "our governor's and idiot, our presidents an idiot" and they have a few guns. They're the sane ones.
> 
> And her sister is showing symptoms.




New York tested over 61000 cases. 15000+ have came back positive.


----------



## jayoungr

I'm suddenly drowning in opportunities to play!  Not only are both my regular groups (plus an occasional group) moving online, but another pick-up group has sprung up to play for at least the duration of lockdown.  All of us have had our regular evening activities canceled, so we're playing as often as we can.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Today, the governor of Oregon finally made it a mandatory order to stay home.  Before, she had just given guidelines.  And people being people, of course no one listened.  People flocked to the beach and to the hiking trails and parks (it was a beautiful weekend, weather wise).  This is why we can't have nice things.  People are dumb.  Many Oregon beach towns gave an order a few days ago telling vacationers and visitors they had 24 hours to leave.  The beach communities are older, and the hospitals are small.  A couple towns actually put roadblocks on the roads preventing entry into the towns.


----------



## Horwath

Sacrosanct said:


> Today, the governor of Oregon finally made it a mandatory order to stay home.  Before, she had just given guidelines.  And people being people, of course no one listened.  People flocked to the beach and to the hiking trails and parks (it was a beautiful weekend, weather wise).  This is why we can't have nice things.  People are dumb.  Many Oregon beach towns gave an order a few days ago telling vacationers and visitors they had 24 hours to leave.  The beach communities are older, and the hospitals are small.  A couple towns actually put roadblocks on the roads preventing entry into the towns.




hiking should be ok as you are km or so from another group, but going to parks and beach is downright dumb.

In the company where I work, we split the people in two groups half the people work and half are on paid vacation. We will change every week.

there is also aprox €1.100 fine for anyone that breaks quarantine.(it is for people that have or are suspected to have the virus).


----------



## MoonSong

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There are.  The hemorrhagic fevers would all do that.



Ok, then I'm going to lock myself in my room, cower under the bed, and not going out ever again...


Henry said:


> To the contrary, remote tabletop might soar to new heights, when some people can’t work and have nothing to do but play the cheapest hobby possible... can’t know for sure, but I do know streaming services are facing MASSIVE loads right now, so anything that allows you to both use the internet for cheap and talk to other human beings is king right now.



I predict a spike in sales of the essentials kit. With children at home as a captive audience and the upcomming internet congesting as more and more people use internet for  remote work and studying and all that streaming... it is the perfect chance for elder and lapsed gamers to play with the little ones.  It is also sold at Walmart and the like, so it remains available. (Plus Amazon, the one industry that is actually hiring as we speak)


----------



## Sacrosanct

Horwath said:


> hiking should be ok as you are km or so from another group, but going to parks and beach is downright dumb.
> 
> In the company where I work, we split the people in two groups half the people work and half are on paid vacation. We will change every week.
> 
> there is also aprox €1.100 fine for anyone that breaks quarantine.(it is for people that have or are suspected to have the virus).





This is Oregon.  People hike.  A lot.  This is how crowded trails are on a normal day.  Then when everything else is shut down, there were 4x as many people hiking.  And with narrow trails, there is no way you can avoid people coming the other direction (which is about a person every 10 seconds).


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> Ok, then I'm going to lock myself in my room, cower under the bed, and not going out ever again...
> 
> I predict a spike in sales of the essentials kit. With children at home as a captive audience and the upcomming internet congesting as more and more people use internet for  remote work and studying and all that streaming... it is the perfect chance for elder and lapsed gamers to play with the little ones.  It is also sold at Walmart and the like, so it remains available. (Plus Amazon, the one industry that is actually hiring as we speak)




 You shouldn't go out to buy the kit and idk if Amazon will be doing deliveries.


----------



## MoonSong

Zardnaar said:


> You shouldn't go out to buy the kit and idk if Amazon will be doing deliveries.



I mean that it is in the same stores that some people will go anyway to get groceries. Also Amazon and delivery services have more work than ever.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> You shouldn't go out to buy the kit and idk if Amazon will be doing deliveries.




Amazon is currently hiring like, 100K people to support greater delivery demand.  They show no sign of stopping.


----------



## ad_hoc

Sacrosanct said:


> This is Oregon.  People hike.  A lot.  This is how crowded trails are on a normal day.  Then when everything else is shut down, there were 4x as many people hiking.  And with narrow trails, there is no way you can avoid people coming the other direction (which is about a person every 10 seconds).
> 
> View attachment 120141




America is in real trouble.

They doubled their confirmed cases from 20 000 to 40 000 in the last 2 days.

Very quickly they're going to be #1 in the world for confirmed cases. 

With so many other very serious systemic problems I could see this crisis completely crippling/collapsing the country. 

The world is definitely changing forever. In individual countries but also geopolitically.

This isn't to say this kind of behaviour isn't happening elsewhere. Nova Scotia was the last Canadian province to declare a state of emergency. People were still filling up parks. Now they have the harshest penalties and recommendations for gatherings. 

People are still messaging me on my online market sites to come by things from me too. A lot of people just don't get it.

We're also looking at months of social distancing, not a week or two. I think that's something that hasn't sunk in for most people either.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> America is in real trouble.
> 
> They doubled their confirmed cases from 20 000 to 40 000 in the last 2 days.




The CDC, as of today, say the number of cases is 33,404.  When you look at wikipedia for this inofrmation... I can find three different numbers within three clicks.  Consistency of information is not great.









						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
					

View the number of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the United States.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> The CDC, as of today, say the number of cases is 33,404.  When you look at wikipedia for this inofrmation... I can find three different numbers within three clicks.  Consistency of information is not great.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
> 
> 
> View the number of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the United States.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov




I used this site.

I've heard that reporting in the USA is hard to keep track of because of the way individual states are doing it.

I think moreso than that, the numbers are changing so rapidly. In a couple of hours the numbers will have changed.

Just this morning on this site the USA read 40 000 now it is at 41 500









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,423,321 Cases and 2,703,987 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				





_edit_

looking at your link

"*This page will be updated regularly at noon Mondays through Fridays. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.* "

So that 33 000 number was for cases up to 4pm on Sunday.


----------



## Mallus

The Johns Hopkins tool puts the current US count at 41, 511.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center


----------



## Sacrosanct

I think we all know the US case count is going to spike as soon as we actually start doing extended testing.  It's very much so artificially low because we don't have the test kits to fully do adequate coverage


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

ad_hoc said:


> I've heard that reporting in the USA is hard to keep track of because of the way individual states are doing it.




Yep. For example, here in Virginia the official numbers seem to be staying one day behind what they actually are, for at least some cases. For example, a newly confirmed case from yesterday may not be included in today's numbers, but will rather be added to tomorrow's numbers. And I have no idea what causes that one-day lag in adding them to the official numbers.

Alright, so I found why numbers in Virginia can be different between what news sites are reporting and what the dept of Health is reporting"

"These cases are “presumptively positive,” meaning they are pending confirmatory testing by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). "

The news is including "presumptively positive" in their numbers, which the dept of Health does not include them til they are confirmed. Other states probably do the same and can explain totals that do not match from day to day.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Sacrosanct said:


> I think we all know the US case count is going to spike as soon as we actually start doing extended testing.  It's very much so artificially low because we don't have the test kits to fully do adequate coverage




Yeah, since as of yesterday, in the entire US, there have supposedly only been around 250k tests total done. And some of that is multiple tests for the same people. Also, for test numbers, some doctors say to be sure you are safe, you need two negative tests taken 24 hours apart, so once there are enough tests to go around, number of tests taken will not equal number of people tested in an even bigger percentage than now.


----------



## Sacrosanct

When the government is telling everyone who might have it to stay at home and not get tested unless they are severe, that right there tells you that most of the cases aren't even being identified.


----------



## Sadras

Well my country, South Africa, will be placed into a full lock down from midnight this Thursday 26 March till mightnight Thursday 16 April. I must say our president has acted swiftly and decisively within these last 2 weeks where we joined the rest of the infected world.

We currently have just over just 400 infected persons, no deaths as yet - but this epidemic can easily turn this country into a graveyard with so many citizens having compromised immune systems.


----------



## MoonSong

ad_hoc said:


> With so many other very serious systemic problems I could see this crisis completely crippling/collapsing the country.
> 
> The world is definitely changing forever. In individual countries but also geopolitically.



I think industry will become less centralized and less distributed. More goods will be fully produced in one place and sold regionally as opposed to the recent model of every part of the process being done in one country and the next in another, and the full product is then sold worldwide.

With some luck this will mean that in the future we will have an Latin American version of D&D done fully in  - say - Argentina as opposed to the current model of a single translation done in Spain, but printed in China and finished in another country.


----------



## Umbran

MoonSong said:


> I think industry will become less centralized and less distributed.




I think such projections are overstated.  

The human race cannot, will not, and should not expect to remodel how it does things as a result of a particular crisis, to be in a state of perpetual readiness for such a crisis.  There are a number of reasons for this, which largely boil down to: 1) We are psychologically ill-suited for it, 2) it is often wasteful, economically speaking - perpetual preparedness for crisis has a cost that is often greater than the cost needed to recover from a crisis, and 3) the changes needed to be prepared for Crisis A may leave you more vulnerable to Crisis B, which you cannot predict.  

We could put up a bunch of hypothetical situations to demonstrate the principle, but it amounts to simply that you cannot always be prepared for everything, and trying to be so is incredibly costly.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> I think such projections are overstated.
> 
> The human race cannot, will not, and should not expect to remodel how it does things as a result of a particular crisis, to be in a state of perpetual readiness for such a crisis.  There are a number of reasons for this, which largely boil down to: 1) We are psychologically ill-suited for it, 2) it is often wasteful, economically speaking - perpetual preparedness for crisis has a cost that is often greater than the cost needed to recover from a crisis, and 3) the changes needed to be prepared for Crisis A may leave you more vulnerable to Crisis B, which you cannot predict.
> 
> We could put up a bunch of hypothetical situations to demonstrate the principle, but it amounts to simply that you cannot always be prepared for everything, and trying to be so is incredibly costly.




That all depends on whether we value people more or ensuring the ridiculously powerful gain and hoard more power.

I'm completely fine with hurting the economy. I don't care about corporate profits.


----------



## Celebrim

ad_hoc said:


> I'm completely fine with hurting the economy. I don't care about corporate profits.




It's invariably not 'corporate profits' that get hurt.


----------



## ad_hoc

Celebrim said:


> It's invariably not 'corporate profits' that get hurt.




That's true right now, but it could change.

In the immediate future it has to and will change. 

The question is whether these societal changes will continue on after the crisis is over.


----------



## Horwath

Umbran said:


> I think such projections are overstated.
> 
> The human race cannot, will not, and should not expect to remodel how it does things as a result of a particular crisis, to be in a state of perpetual readiness for such a crisis.  There are a number of reasons for this, which largely boil down to: 1) We are psychologically ill-suited for it, 2) it is often wasteful, economically speaking - perpetual preparedness for crisis has a cost that is often greater than the cost needed to recover from a crisis, and 3) the changes needed to be prepared for Crisis A may leave you more vulnerable to Crisis B, which you cannot predict.
> 
> We could put up a bunch of hypothetical situations to demonstrate the principle, but it amounts to simply that you cannot always be prepared for everything, and trying to be so is incredibly costly.




But every crisis does affect how humanity does things. in smaller or larger change.

Airport security was probably increased tenfold since 9-11, that sure drove up the costs,

2011 Fukushima nuclear accident changed global view on nuclear energy and stopped many in-development nuclear power plants to be built(I wont go into how stupid that decision is, but it was made as an reaction to a big crisis).

And I get the message that @MoonSong is trying to say. It is risky to put "all eggs in one basket".

Like having one giant power plant instead of 5 smaller, or giving more money to CDC and Medicare instead of DoD,


----------



## MoonSong

Horwath said:


> And I get the message that @MoonSong is trying to say. It is risky to put "all eggs in one basket".



More like all the eggs come from one single hen. And different parts of the hen are spread all over the world, so if something happens in one place, the rest of the hen stops laying eggs altogether. In short, you just need something happening in a single place to make all of the world stop, and that single place can be any of a big number of places.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Amazon is currently hiring like, 100K people to support greater delivery demand.  They show no sign of stopping.




Which is idiotic. Apparently they've crammed them into rooms for interviews and here are the rules.

Canceled my group almost 3 weeks ago.

I don't think it's sunk in yet in America. We're in lockdown here with 102 cases 0 deaths.

  Even if they can hire them idk if they'll be able to do much with more states going into lockdown.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> I mean that it is in the same stores that some people will go anyway to get groceries. Also Amazon and delivery services have more work than ever.




  My prediction is D&D will exist online and become a middle and upper class game. 

 Our PM hasn't suger coated much and invoked our great depression and wartime leader. We're basically going into wartime economy.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> I'm completely fine with hurting the economy. I don't care about corporate profits.




So, here's the thing - when I say something is not economical, I don't mean "corporate profits would take a hit."  For one thing "the economy" is not just corporate profits.  It is your iPhones, your groceries, your internet connection, your job.  If the economy takes a hit, it doesn't selectively cut corporate profits - people lose jobs, homes, and so on.

What I mean is that long-term high preparedness for a disaster can cost more than recovering from the disaster.  To give a hypothetical to demonstrate the point - my home might burn down.  Do I spend the money owning a second home, just in case?  No.  That just isn't a cost-effective measure.  I should not restructure my entire personal finances into real estate to make sure I have a place to live. I should buy some insurance to help me pay for it if the house burns down.  

The same concept applies here, but on a larger scale.

This, especially because, at the moment, centralized production isn't really the issue.  Most of life's goods are readily available.  Fully restructuring our supply chains, when so far supply chains aren't the major issue, seems a bit off.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> My prediction is D&D will exist online and become a middle and upper class game.




It is already a middle and upper class game.  No change there.


----------



## Sadras

ad_hoc said:


> America is in real trouble.   ...(snip)...
> Very quickly they're going to be #1 in the world for confirmed cases.
> With so many other very serious systemic problems I could see this crisis completely crippling/collapsing the country. The world is definitely changing forever. In individual countries but also geopolitically.




Agree. Unlike China the spread within the USA is vast. It actually looks pretty scary.



> We're also looking at months of social distancing, not a week or two. I think that's something that hasn't sunk in for most people either.




They need a full lock down of states completely for a period of time to curb and halt the virus spread. Anything less than this will prove futile I fear.


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> But every crisis does affect how humanity does things. in smaller or larger change.




MoonSong seemed to be speaking of fundamental restructuring of supply chains overall, which seems a very large statement, especially when supply chains are not currently the issue - the issue facing us are panic purchasing and the fact that folks have to sequester themselves.



> 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident changed global view on nuclear energy and stopped many in-development nuclear power plants to be built(I wont go into how stupid that decision is, but it was made as an reaction to a big crisis).




That's debateable.  In the US, the amount of power generated by nuclear plants did not substantially change over the period of 2008 to 2016.  Nuclear power is on the outs in the US not due to Fukushima.  Even at pre-Fukushima levels of safety and cost, progress in wind and solar has made nuclear a poor economic choice.


----------



## Bupp

I work for UPS, and continue to go to work. We are considered "critically essential". Even in areas in lock down, which includes us here in Pittsburgh. If anything, our volume is increasing, as people adjust to working from home.

I actually think that D&D will soar. It ports very well to online play. The Basic Rules are free. My kids continue to play almost daily with friends online. We are actually starting up a new game at home as well.

Game sales traditionally do well during recessions (and even the Great Depression).


----------



## Oofta

I predict that if we are successful in slowing the infection rate, a large faction of the population will sit there and claim that it wasn't that big of a deal in the first place and people just overreacted.  If we don't slow the infection rate to something hospitals can handle people will just point to it as another big government failure and say there's nothing that can be done.

End of the day, nothing will really change all that much.  People still have short memories and look out for their own self-interest.  But tectonic shifts in world politics or the way the economy runs?  I don't expect that any time soon, pandemics will just become another existential threat people ignore for the most part.

Hopefully I'm wrong.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well I don't think people are gonna be to happy about another round of corporate bail outs for the second time in just over a decade.

 So neo liberal trickle down theory I think will be on the way out. Won't be a massive fundamental swing in terms of capitalism but there's going to be more regulation and intervention.


----------



## ad_hoc

USA Vice President Pence is advising those with COVID 19 to return to work but 'wear a mask'.

Meanwhile places like Canada are demanding people to go into 14 day isolation if they even have a chance of being exposed including all people returning from outside the country. This includes not even making a stop to get groceries. It is likely there will soon be enforcement in the way of fines for breaking this mandate for isolation.

America is in serious trouble.









						Trump Says Coronavirus Cure Cannot ‘Be Worse Than the Problem Itself’ (Published 2020)
					

The president, who has watched the economy plunge amid social distancing measures, says restrictions will be reassessed.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Oofta

ad_hoc said:


> USA Vice President Pence is advising those with COVID 19 to return to work but 'wear a mask'.
> 
> Meanwhile places like Canada are demanding people to go into 14 day isolation if they even have a chance of being exposed including all people returning from outside the country. This includes not even making a stop to get groceries. It is likely there will soon be enforcement in the way of fines for breaking this mandate for isolation.
> 
> America is in serious trouble.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Trump Says Coronavirus Cure Cannot ‘Be Worse Than the Problem Itself’ (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> The president, who has watched the economy plunge amid social distancing measures, says restrictions will be reassessed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com



Yeah, it's difficult to write much in here about the US without getting overly political.  

But we're screwed.


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> MoonSong seemed to be speaking of fundamental restructuring of supply chains overall, which seems a very large statement, especially when supply chains are not currently the issue - the issue facing us are panic purchasing and the fact that folks have to sequester themselves.



That's one face, but it isn't what I'm talking about. I'm talking about shortages of key medical supplies. The supply chains of most of them go through the Hubei region -and exclusively in those points-. During the lockdown stocks of things like facemasks, gloves and drugs got dangerously low,  which would have been a problem even if the virus hadn't spread outside China.

I mean nurses have stopped applying tests in Ontario because they aren't being supplied N95 masks and that leaves them vulnerable to getting infected by the virus. And they aren't being supplied, because the supply chain got broken and what little remains is being used on other procedures.


----------



## SkidAce

Umbran said:


> It is already a middle and upper class game.  No change there.




Not sure I agree.  Been playing my entire life and just recently clawed my way into middle class.  And all of my group live pay check to pay check in retail.  But any evidence from my part is anecdotal, so meh...


----------



## Zardnaar

SkidAce said:


> Not sure I agree.  Been playing my entire life and just recently clawed my way into middle class.  And all of my group live pay check to pay check in retail.  But any evidence from my part is anecdotal, so meh...




 It's kind of your background I've noticed. 

What do your parents do? Don't need to know on the forums.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> Testing rate probably doesn't matter now. Count the body bags in a few weeks.



That sadly works.

After 100s of Covid-19 deaths/day, you cannot count Covid-19 deaths even.  Italy ran out of capacity to test people before they died (because they tested people in Hospital, and the backlog meant that many people died before they got to Hospital).  So once you hit 100s of deaths/day, look at excess deaths compared to the previous year.  (which I have read means that Italy, as bad as the numbers are, is undercounting Covid 19 deaths by 3x ish).

The downside to counting deaths is that it is a 2-4 week trailing indicator.  You can make assumptions about how much it spreads and the fatality rate in order to turn that into a rough current infected number.



Umbran said:


> I think such projections are overstated.
> 
> The human race cannot, will not, and should not expect to remodel how it does things as a result of a particular crisis, to be in a state of perpetual readiness for such a crisis.  There are a number of reasons for this, which largely boil down to: 1) We are psychologically ill-suited for it, 2) it is often wasteful, economically speaking - perpetual preparedness for crisis has a cost that is often greater than the cost needed to recover from a crisis, and 3) the changes needed to be prepared for Crisis A may leave you more vulnerable to Crisis B, which you cannot predict.
> 
> We could put up a bunch of hypothetical situations to demonstrate the principle, but it amounts to simply that you cannot always be prepared for everything, and trying to be so is incredibly costly.



We've had 50 years of globalization.  In it, we've had 1 bad epidemic, and seen a large number that got close (and could have been worse).

This crisis is not unpredictable.  Epidemiologists have been saying this was coming for multiple decades.  It was even assumed it would be a respiratory illness, like Covid-19, because of how well they spread.

What we've been doing is building up an Epidemiological debt and now we are paying it off.  Structurally you can actually arrange for such debt to not build up.  It might require more than one plague.


ad_hoc said:


> USA Vice President Pence is advising those with COVID 19 to return to work but 'wear a mask'.



Well, that is the quickest path to 2-10 million dead.


> Meanwhile places like Canada are demanding people to go into 14 day isolation if they even have a chance of being exposed including all people returning from outside the country. This includes not even making a stop to get groceries. It is likely there will soon be enforcement in the way of fines for breaking this mandate for isolation.



Yes.  You should get someone to deliver it to you, not get it yourself.

There are caremongering groups pretty much everywhere (multiple ones in major cities by neighborhood) who will get you groceries for far less than "I am in self isolation" reasons.


----------



## Zardnaar

Talked to my neighbour yesterday. He's elderly above 60 from England. 

Gave him m my phone number to ring me if he gets sick. I'll drop off water and cooked food for him assuming he doesn't need a hospital visit. 

 Think we're gonna have some trapped tourists where money will be a problem. If they only came here for a few weeks but are stuck for a month or more they're gonna need help.


----------



## FrogReaver

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Yep. For example, here in Virginia the official numbers seem to be staying one day behind what they actually are, for at least some cases. For example, a newly confirmed case from yesterday may not be included in today's numbers, but will rather be added to tomorrow's numbers. And I have no idea what causes that one-day lag in adding them to the official numbers.
> 
> Alright, so I found why numbers in Virginia can be different between what news sites are reporting and what the dept of Health is reporting"
> 
> "These cases are “presumptively positive,” meaning they are pending confirmatory testing by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). "
> 
> The news is including "presumptively positive" in their numbers, which the dept of Health does not include them til they are confirmed. Other states probably do the same and can explain totals that do not match from day to day.




Virginia is testing a very small amount of people.  They still haven't tested more than 4000 yet.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Well I don't think people are gonna be to happy about another round of corporate bail outs for the second time in just over a decade.
> 
> So neo liberal trickle down theory I think will be on the way out. Won't be a massive fundamental swing in terms of capitalism but there's going to be more regulation and intervention.




Just a quibble.  Trickle down theory is a neo-conservative theory, not liberal.  It was spawned by Reagan in the 1980's.  

Carry on.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Oofta said:


> Yeah, it's difficult to write much in here about the US without getting overly political.
> 
> But we're screwed.




The point of going to work in face masks is not political because the Democrat governor of New York said the same thing.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Just a quibble.  Trickle down theory is a neo-conservative theory, not liberal.  It was spawned by Reagan in the 1980's.
> 
> Carry on.




It predates Reagan. The theory was around for a while, on it's modern form picked up steam in mid 70s. 

 Reagan was the harbinger of it's implementation.


----------



## FrogReaver

NotAYakk said:


> After 100s of Covid-19 deaths/day, you cannot count Covid-19 deaths even.  Italy ran out of capacity to test people before they died (because they tested people in Hospital, and the backlog meant that many people died before they got to Hospital).  So once you hit 100s of deaths/day, look at excess deaths compared to the previous year.  (which I have read means that Italy, as bad as the numbers are, is undercounting Covid 19 deaths by 3x ish).




I've wondered if that might be the case there - but also in the U.S. when untested people die without going to the hospital - they won't be counted in covid-19 deaths initially.  Curious where the source was for Italy numbers on that.  

Also do you think that means Italy numbers are actually declining or they've just changed how they are testing?


----------



## Lem23

MoonSong said:


> I mean nurses have stopped applying tests in Ontario because they aren't being supplied N95 masks and that leaves them vulnerable to getting infected by the virus. And they aren't being supplied, because the supply chain got broken and what little remains is being used on other procedures.




The way they're doing it on Ontario (or at least Toronto) is that if you go to the hospital for an emergency (non-emergencies aren't being dealt with, like routine surgery etc), you get tested before they admit you, and you have to wait while they get your results. I know, because I had to get tested then wait for most of the day (from 6am till about 4pm) before they'd admit me on saturday morning, then do emergency surgery on me sunday morning thanks to an infected kidney stone that was far too large to pass. The hospitals are allowing no visitors unless you have surgery, in which case you're allowed one visitor directly after surgery, and any single one of the checklist (with about a dozen points on it, not just fever / cough / foreign travel) stops you from getting allowed in. The nurses didn't have masks; this was pretty much the only way to protect them, and they were being put on smaller shift groups (3 nurses over night in urology as opposed to over half a dozen). They were combining some wards too so that they had a greater pool of nurses available for work if things go horribly wrong, and the fact that only emergency cases are being admitted helped keep down patient numbers so they have free beds if needed. If anything bad was about to happen, they had plans to move all of us to a different hospital for recovery to free the entre hospital up for CV cases only.


----------



## Lem23

Hussar said:


> Just a quibble.  Trickle down theory is a neo-conservative theory, not liberal.  It was spawned by Reagan in the 1980's.
> 
> Carry on.




Neo-liberalism is a conservative doctrine, not a liberal one (despite the name). The neo- prefix is the important part.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Sacrosanct said:


> When the government is telling everyone who might have it to stay at home and not get tested unless they are severe, that right there tells you that most of the cases aren't even being identified.



Yep.


----------



## MarkB

The UK government has announced much tighter restrictions on non-essential travel and activities - no going out except to shop for basic necessities or essential work travel, no public gatherings of any size, closure of any shops not selling basic necessities.









						Coronavirus: Strict new curbs on life in UK announced by PM
					

Gatherings of more than two people are banned, shops ordered to close and social events halted as part of rules to keep Britons at home and stop the spread of coronavirus.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## HomegrownHydra

ad_hoc said:


> USA Vice President Pence is advising those with COVID 19 to return to work but 'wear a mask'.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Trump Says Coronavirus Cure Cannot ‘Be Worse Than the Problem Itself’ (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> The president, who has watched the economy plunge amid social distancing measures, says restrictions will be reassessed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com



That is absolutely NOT what he said. Your own link makes that clear.


----------



## Ogre Mage

Washington State has just issued a shelter-in-place order.


----------



## Oofta

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> The point of going to work in face masks is not political because the Democrat governor of New York said the same thing.



And ... this is not a conversation I'm not getting pulled in to.


----------



## MoonSong

SkidAce said:


> Not sure I agree.  Been playing my entire life and just recently clawed my way into middle class.  And all of my group live pay check to pay check in retail.  But any evidence from my part is anecdotal, so meh...




Not arguing. But your experience and the statement aren't contradictory. D&D and RPGs in general are both luxury items and one of the cheapest forms of entertainment. Releases are both pricey and free, you just need to know where to look and what to look for. Even when buying, the dollars/hour amount ratio is still quite good.

But, on the other hand some poor minority communities look into the hobby -and geeky stuff in general- as something rich people do or associate it with criminal or satanic stuff -thanks to the stupid occult scare- and prevent their kids from engaging or doing. Also, until recently, you couldn't find  D&D in a toy store or in retail like walmart and target, so only kids with disposable income would even know about it.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Today was illuminating. With the banning of Fauchi to speak publicly, Trump saying they won’t let “the cure (distancing and shelter in place) be worse than the virus in regards to the economy, and the doctor focusing solely on how people will be fine even if they get it (acting like the elderly and auto immune somehow don’t exist or don’t count) and the writing is on the wall for Trump to be willing to let 3% of our population die in order to get the stock market back on track.


----------



## Garthanos

Oofta said:


> End of the day, nothing will really change all that much.  People still have short memories and look out for their own self-interest.  But tectonic shifts in world politics or the way the economy runs?  I don't expect that any time soon, pandemics will just become another existential threat people ignore for the most part.
> 
> Hopefully I'm wrong.



You mean hopefully somebody wont fire and not replace 700 specialists in exactly this who were hired because of a pandemic not as bad a few years ago


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Sacrosanct said:


> Today was illuminating. With the banning of Fauchi to speak publicly, Trump saying they won’t let “the cure (distancing and shelter in place) be worse than the virus in regards to the economy, and the doctor focusing solely on how people will be fine even if they get it (acting like the elderly and auto immune somehow don’t exist or don’t count) and the writing is on the wall for Trump to be willing to let 3% of our population die in order to get the stock market back on track.



One absence does not a banning make.  It’s ominous, yes, but not dispositive.


----------



## Emirikol Prime

Umbran said:


> *Mod note:*
> This demand is not appropriate.  That was posted over a week ago, and the world looked rather different then.  Please allow for history.



At no point was this media hype so no time hasn’t changed anything.


----------



## Horwath

Sacrosanct said:


> Today was illuminating. With the banning of Fauchi to speak publicly, Trump saying they won’t let “the cure (distancing and shelter in place) be worse than the virus in regards to the economy, and the doctor focusing solely on how people will be fine even if they get it (acting like the elderly and auto immune somehow don’t exist or don’t count) and the writing is on the wall for Trump to be willing to let 3% of our population die in order to get the stock market back on track.




now, while stock market is probably trumps primary goal, we should think about what will breaking of the economy do to the general population, and will it in the end cause more dead within 1 or 2 years that 2 or 3% that you mentioned from Covid19.

People will be out of money and they will get "cabin fever" on top of that.

when people start to get out of money, more robberies will happen, more home invasions means more defenders and offenders end up dead.

Muggings and possible murder in the streets for trying to get a few bucks fast from some unsuspecting person.

Rising of violence at home due to money shortage and confinement, all the minor problems that two people have in their relationship will surface and be blow completely out of control.

Divorce rates will be interesting in 6-12 months. More broke up families, more children raised in sub-optimal or even abusing homes, means more criminals in next generation.


----------



## Umbran

Oofta said:


> I predict that if we are successful in slowing the infection rate, a large faction of the population will sit there and claim that it wasn't that big of a deal in the first place and people just overreacted.




If the rate slows after _weeks_ of distancing, I tink folks will get the connection.


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> when people start to get out of money, more robberies will happen, more home invasions means more defenders and offenders end up dead.




The two best analogies we have - the Great Depression and the Great Recession do not support this.  While crime statistics for the 1920s and 1930s are not great, they don't support the idea of a notable rise in crime.  And, in most areas of the US during the Great Recession, crime rates fell, rather than rose.  

There's two basic explanations for this - 1) People aren't actually as bad as we think, and 2) When an economic downturn leaves many people without money, nobody has much worth stealing.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Dannyalcatraz said:


> One absence does not a banning make.  It’s ominous, yes, but not dispositive.




There was an article about him being barred at a particular interview back in February.  And looking at past examples of people in that particular admin being barred from speaking publicly, I think it's a safe bet to say he can't speak anymore without WH approval.  Either way, it's a pretty strong coincidence that he disappears right when the WH shifts tactics and are now pushing a narrative to end restrictions to help the economy rather than saving lives, don't you think?


----------



## Sacrosanct

Horwath said:


> now, while stock market is probably trumps primary goal, we should think about what will breaking of the economy do to the general population, and will it in the end cause more dead within 1 or 2 years that 2 or 3% that you mentioned from Covid19.
> 
> People will be out of money and they will get "cabin fever" on top of that.
> 
> when people start to get out of money, more robberies will happen, more home invasions means more defenders and offenders end up dead.
> 
> Muggings and possible murder in the streets for trying to get a few bucks fast from some unsuspecting person.
> 
> Rising of violence at home due to money shortage and confinement, all the minor problems that two people have in their relationship will surface and be blow completely out of control.
> 
> Divorce rates will be interesting in 6-12 months. More broke up families, more children raised in sub-optimal or even abusing homes, means more criminals in next generation.




I had this conversation the other day with my partner (via whatsapp since we are quarantining from each other  ), and yes, there is no win here.  At some point does the damage from the economy cost more lives than the virus itself via starvation, lack of medical care etc?  What is that number?

I just don't think we should be willing to suddenly shift gears to accept all these deaths from the virus before we even have test kits available to people, PPE to hospitals, and we don't even know if the stay at home orders work.  15 days isn't nearly long enough to make that decision.


----------



## Mistwell

Sacrosanct said:


> There was an article about him being barred at a particular interview back in February.  And looking at past examples of people in that particular admin being barred from speaking publicly, I think it's a safe bet to say he can't speak anymore without WH approval.  Either way, it's a pretty strong coincidence that he disappears right when the WH shifts tactics and are now pushing a narrative to end restrictions to help the economy rather than saving lives, don't you think?




Dr. Fauchi was at a task force meeting during that presser and had said a couple days ago he'd be likely missing some of the pressers because he still has a lot of work he's doing every day with the task force.


----------



## Umbran

Sacrosanct said:


> I had this conversation the other day with my partner (via whatsapp since we are quarantining from each other  ), and yes, there is no win here.  At some point does the damage from the economy cost more lives than the virus itself via starvation, lack of medical care etc?  What is that number?




Well, a bit of reading tells me that the Great Depression can be blamed for about 7 million deaths by starvation and malnutrition.  The upper end estimates for bad covid-19 are a couple of million.  So.... you need to tank the economy on the same order as the Great Depression to get similar deaths.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> Well, a bit of reading tells me that the Great Depression can be blamed for about 7 million deaths by starvation and malnutrition.  The upper end estimates for bad covid-19 are a couple of million.  So.... you need to tank the economy on the same order as the Great Depression to get similar deaths.




A major difference is that our technology is so far advanced now that we have far more resources than they did at that time.

People are worried, for example, about how they're going to be able to afford their homes. Well, the homes are there. The problem isn't that there aren't enough homes.


----------



## Zardnaar

Glad I'm not in America. Bailout was passed days ago, they've moved onto mortage and rent freezes, countries locked down and they're creating bubbles to contain stuff. 

 If your workplace is essential eg food production not McDonalds the idea is limit the contacts. They know they can't contain it but want to limit it's spread.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> A major difference is that our technology is so far advanced now that we have far more resources than they did at that time.
> 
> People are worried, for example, about how they're going to be able to afford their homes. Well, the homes are there. The problem isn't that there aren't enough homes.




 We had crisis here. A lot of foreign speculators left, Air BnBs are coming up for long term rent and I suspect empty hotels etc will get used for emergency housing. 

 We probably have an extra 100 000+ people here on visas trapped, there's an adopt a backpacker for 4 weeks scheme going and they're working with various Embassys to locate people and get them home.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Zardnaar said:


> We probably have an extra 100 000+ people here on visas trapped, there's an adopt a backpacker for 4 weeks scheme going and they're working with various Embassys to locate people and get them home.



Hmm... To be completely honest, I kinda wish I was trapped in New Zealand instead of rural west Texas.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> A major difference is that our technology is so far advanced now that we have far more resources than they did at that time.




Well, even with those resources, we still have food security issues without a major economic dislocation, so I don't see as we can just say, "resources!" and expect the problem can't exist.



> People are worried, for example, about how they're going to be able to afford their homes. Well, the homes are there.




Yes, folks are worried about being able to pay their rents and mortgages.  In a recession or depression, that's an issue.  What gets done about it is a political question, and beyond the scope of these boards.


----------



## NotAYakk

I think NYC is going to be bad.





They just started social distancing a few days ago, and their Covid-19 death curve is doubling in less than 3 days.  That is a lot of points, and it isn't as if you go "well, we just started noticing that Covid-19 was causing these deaths", so testing of deaths shouldn't get *more reliable* in that short of a window.

Deaths are a 20-ish day trailing indicator.  If we give them 6 doublings from now before their social distancing kicks in, they hit 64 * 150 which is about 10,000 deaths ... assuming their hospitals can handle the surge in cases, which isn't likely.

Then social distancing slows the spread, but the death rate stays flatish, so 1000s per day.

Then 2x to 3x that due to lack of ICUs.

Graph source: Coronavirus Deaths by U.S. State and Country Over Time: Daily Tracking


----------



## Zardnaar

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Hmm... To be completely honest, I kinda wish I was trapped in New Zealand instead of rural west Texas.




 My next door neighbour is English and there's a few Aussie and US expats here. 

They could have gone home but they're sticking it out here.


----------



## Oofta

Zardnaar said:


> My next door neighbour is English and there's a few Aussie and US expats here.
> 
> They could have gone home but they're sticking it out here.




At this point, I don't blame them.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> I think NYC is going to be bad.
> 
> View attachment 120174
> They just started social distancing a few days ago, and their Covid-19 death curve is doubling in less than 3 days.  That is a lot of points, and it isn't as if you go "well, we just started noticing that Covid-19 was causing these deaths", so testing of deaths shouldn't get *more reliable* in that short of a window.
> 
> Deaths are a 20-ish day trailing indicator.  If we give them 6 doublings from now before their social distancing kicks in, they hit 64 * 150 which is about 10,000 deaths ... assuming their hospitals can handle the surge in cases, which isn't likely.
> 
> Then social distancing slows the spread, but the death rate stays flatish, so 1000s per day.
> 
> Then 2x to 3x that due to lack of ICUs.
> 
> Graph source: Coronavirus Deaths by U.S. State and Country Over Time: Daily Tracking




 I read they're gonna run out if medical supplies in ten days. That was two days ago. 

 They need 60 000 ventilator FEMA gave them 400. 

 There's no more to be bought, there's a 6 week backlog and/or stuff is stuck in China. 
 And everyone wants that stuff now. 


 One could run some calculations but they don't have the data. No one has really had to do this since 1945 and Truman being president.

 The calculation is how to kill the least amount of people.


----------



## Zardnaar

Oofta said:


> At this point, I don't blame them.




 Nope it's not gonna be great here but it's looking very rosy by comparison.


----------



## Todd Roybark

Umbran said:


> Well, a bit of reading tells me that the Great Depression can be blamed for about 7 million deaths by starvation and malnutrition.




Umbran, would you, kindly, share your sources to support this figure?

No accredited paper, (I have seen), supports that figure.  I’m not an expert, however.

I imagine, if there was _credible_ evidence, Howard Zinn, would have had _some_ mention of it, in one of the versions of a People’s History of the United States, for example.

I will, happily, update my view of history, if there is a _factual_ basis for this statement.

Most people in the world, _are not_ directly invested in Stock Markets, and only 55% of Americans are, based off a Gallup 2019 poll.   Greater numbers of death and increased misery, for stock prices is not a trade, _I_ am willing to make.

My 72 year old mother, has more inherent value in human terms, then the share price of Disney stocks.

If the Forgotten Realms’ god, Waukeen demanded that people work during a plague, *guaranteeing, increased death and spread of the disease, while  also mandating no change to the predominant economic mode; is that the actions of a ‘Good’ alignment?*


----------



## ad_hoc

One important piece of data that I think people are missing from looking at the USA's death count is the comparison to the number of recovered cases.

Deaths are low because the USA is behind many other countries.

There are currently 634 deaths but only 361 recoveries.

Compare that to Italy, the hardest hit country with 6 820 deaths and 8 326 recoveries.

Or perhaps Canada, a country demographically and geographically that has a lot in common with the USA with 25 deaths and 112 recoveries.

Germany is a big outlier here and an example of a country with great healthcare (perhaps the best in the world) with 33 000 cases, 156 deaths, and an amazing 3 133 recoveries.

The bad is just starting.









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,423,321 Cases and 2,703,987 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Zardnaar

Todd Roybark said:


> Umbran, would you, kindly, share your sources to support this figure?
> 
> No accredited paper, (I have seen), supports that figure.  I’m not an expert, however.
> 
> I imagine, if there was _credible_ evidence, Howard Zinn, would have had _some_ mention of it, in one of the versions of a People’s History of the United States, for example.
> 
> I will, happily, update my view of history, if there is a _factual_ basis for this statement.
> 
> Most people in the world, _are not_ directly invested in Stock Markets, and only 55% of Americans are, based off a Gallup 2019 poll.   Greater numbers of death and increased misery for stock prices is not a trade, _I_ am willing to make.
> 
> My 72 year mother, has more inherent value in human terms, than the share price of Disney stocks.
> 
> If the Forgotten Realms’ god, Waukeen demanded that people work during a plague, *guaranteeing, increased death and spread of the disease, while  also mandating no change to the predominant economic mode; is that the actions of a ‘Good’ alignment?*




 Deaths from pandemic 1million
Deaths from economic disruption 2 million

Pick one. 

Reality is gonna puncture a few ideologies. Your options are bad, worse and awful pick one. It's not going to be obvious what option is bad, worse and awful either.

 The war years was the last time decisions like this were made. 

 For example war years. Defeating Nazis and Japan ASAP good yes? Vital supplies disrupted normal cargo and people in places like Persia and Bengal went hungary. 

 IDK what your media is telling you overseas our PM invoked the war years, point blank said it's gonna be rough and had a picture of our PM from the great depression and start of WW2 over her shoulder.

 We're basically on wartime footing here, supermarkets started rationing stuff here last week.


----------



## Todd Roybark

Zardnaar said:


> Deaths from economic disruption 2 million




Going back to work is not going to _stop_ economic disruption.  Restaurant wholesellers in California, are converting to markets, as the demand by restaurants is decreasing due to closures, but people need to eat, and the produce is going to spoil.

Direct Payments to residents, debt forgiveness, etc, etc are all viable options in an economy like the United States.  Free vegetables is viable in California, the Los Angeles Unified School district is currently running the largest foodbank in the United States.

What is lacking is _political will_ and _imagination_.  If we are not willing to _try_ new models, then failure is guaranteed.  Someone on Easter Island, had to chop down the last large tree.  Somehow, people ignored that the trees were diminishing.

Doing the same old, same old is insane.


----------



## Oofta

Zardnaar said:


> Nope it's not gonna be great here but it's looking very rosy by comparison.




Yeah.  You wouldn't happen to have a spare bed somewhere?


----------



## Zardnaar

Todd Roybark said:


> Going back to work is not going to _stop_ economic disruption.  Restaurant wholesellers in California, are converting to markets, as the demand by restaurants is decreasing due to closures, but people need to eat, and the produce is going to spoil.
> 
> Direct Payments to residents, debt forgiveness, etc, etc are all viable options in an economy like the United States.  Free vegetables is viable in California, the Los Angeles Unified School district is currently running the largest foodbank in the United States.
> 
> What is lacking is _political will_ and _imagination_.  If we are not willing to _try_ new models, then failure is guaranteed.  Someone on Easter Island, had to chop down the last large tree.  Somehow, people ignored that the trees were diminishing.
> 
> Doing the same old, same old is insane.




Not disagreeing. When I was at University I read a lot on the wartime economies of various nation's. 

 Had this conversation about a week ago on a different forum. 

What needs to be done and what will be done are two different things. 

 I had the talk with my wife in the weekend, almost made her cry. As late as Friday she thought family lunch was gonna be a thing. She thought I was crazy two weeks ago when I started stocking up before the panic buying really took off.


----------



## Zardnaar

Oofta said:


> Yeah.  You wouldn't happen to have a spare bed somewhere?




 We do I'ma making a quarentine room today.


----------



## Azzy

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Hmm... To be completely honest, I kinda wish I was trapped in New Zealand instead of rural west Texas.




Right? Florida's not much bertter.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Deaths from pandemic 1million
> Deaths from economic disruption 2 million
> 
> Pick one.



Option 1 is probably much worse than you posit.  Last week, I read one official believed this outbreak of Covid-19 would ultimately infect 1/4 of the world’s population.  If the estimated 1% death rate proves accurate, that’s something like 25M deaths.


----------



## Umbran

Todd Roybark said:


> Umbran, would you, kindly, share your sources to support this figure?
> 
> No accredited paper, (I have seen), supports that figure.  I’m not an expert, however.




I don't have a peer reviewed paper (the term "accredited" paper is not one I'm familiar with).  Sorry.  It was a figure I came upon some years ago while researching something else.  I intended it here to simply note that you'd need Great Depression levels of economic dislocation for us to be concerned about it matching the potential disease deaths (which are also just an estimate anyway).

I'm happy to note that it isn't a solid number, and leave it at that.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Option 1 is probably much worse than you posit.  Last week, I read one official believed this outbreak of Covid-19 would ultimately infect 1/4 of the world’s population.  If the estimated 1% death rate proves accurate, that’s something like 25M deaths.




The figure that I've heard is up to 70%.

The plan is to have that happen over a long enough period to keep the death rate down.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Option 1 is probably much worse than you posit.  Last week, I read one official believed this outbreak of Covid-19 would ultimately infect 1/4 of the world’s population.  If the estimated 1% death rate proves accurate, that’s something like 25M deaths.




 Can't do much about the world just what country you live in can do.

In Spain and Italy they had to make decisions on who gets respirators. That reality hasn't hit the USA yet.

 Army has found rest homes where caregivers fled. Full of dead and dying old people no caregivers.

 Minimum wage job or close to it with no safety equipment what would you do? How do you judge that. 

 Even if they stayed what can they do except expose themselves.

That's what I mean here's your options bad, worse, awful. Pick one.

 That's the reality we're facing. Our great grandparents had to do it so do we.


----------



## Zardnaar

Zardnaar said:


> We do I'ma making a quarentine room today.




Oofta I wasn't joking if my wife or myself get sick going into the quarantine room. Basically you have to sweat it out and hope for the best and ring ambulance if you have trouble breathing.


----------



## Oofta

Zardnaar said:


> Oofta I wasn't joking if my wife or myself get sick going into the quarantine room. Basically you have to sweat it out and hope for the best and ring ambulance if you have trouble breathing.



Nah, I get it.  We already have a spare bedroom and bathroom in the basement.  We've already decided that when I go back to the office (she always works from home) that's where I'll be sleeping.  Or if either one of us gets sick.


----------



## generic

The main problem facing hospitals and medical professionals at the moment is a lack of ICU beds, Mechanical Ventilators, and N95-grade respirators.  My family is donating a backlog of N95 respirators which we own to a local hospital in the United States.  

The best thing you could do now is come up with a way to replace the regulator system in the mechanical ventilator with something more easily manufactured.  I would posit a few motors and valves controlled by a lightweight Raspberry Pi controller, but medical professionals would know far more than I do about how a mechanical ventilator's regulator unit functions.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

I think my job location is doomed. There is a 19yo female cook here who missed most of a week being sick. She is back at work today because the doctor did not think she had the virus because her fever was not high enough. So she was not isolated for the normal 14 days.


----------



## Zardnaar

Oofta said:


> Nah, I get it.  We already have a spare bedroom and bathroom in the basement.  We've already decided that when I go back to the office (she always works from home) that's where I'll be sleeping.  Or if either one of us gets sick.




 You're about the third to make that joke or something similar in the last day or so. 

 I remember back in 1999/2000 people would ASL you. Male, 22, NZ any that were F, 20,USA were a bit suspicious type.

 Few years ago they started asking about NZ or if you're married as happened last year.


----------



## Zardnaar

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> I think my job location is doomed. There is a 19yo female cook here who missed most of a week being sick. She is back at work today because the doctor did not think she had the virus because her fever was not high enough. So she was not isolated for the normal 14 days.



They made it simple here. All takeaways and restaurants closed. In 10 hours we're in level 4 lockdown. Big box stores also closing.

 Big box hardware stores can supply trades but not normal retail.


----------



## seebs

I think a lot of people miss the subtle point that the people who die _never_ come back to work, necromancy not being reliably available to us.

Epidemiologists aren't idiots. They're _aware_ that lockdowns are expensive, but they're also the only chance you get to slow things down enough to either actually get the thing contained, or get some time to build the medical machinery you need, or whatever else comes along.


----------



## seebs

Side note: the "7M" number for the Great Depression seems to come from _Pravda_, so I'd take it with a salt lake.


----------



## Zardnaar

Modern Pravda or ye olde USSR Pravda?


----------



## Umbran

seebs said:


> Side note: the "7M" number for the Great Depression seems to come from _Pravda_, so I'd take it with a salt lake.




Great.  Well, toss that number out, then.  Not worth the electrons it is written with.

Edit:  I feel this bears mentioning - changing your mind when shown your data isn't good is _absolutely necessary_ in times like these.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Last week, I read one official believed this outbreak of Covid-19 would ultimately infect 1/4 of the world’s population.  If the estimated 1% death rate proves accurate, that’s something like 25M deaths.




Be careful - one of you may be talking deaths in the USA, and the other worldwide.

Okay, so let us talk about models for a moment.

Like opinions, everyone has one.  And they don't all agree.  They aren't even very close to agreeing.  Even for a given model, the admitted breadth between the best and worst cases is very large.  Which amounts to saying, nobody actually knows.  The only consensus available is... it is bad, and needs some pretty drastic action to reduce the consequences.









						Infectious Disease Experts Don’t Know How Bad The Coronavirus Is Going To Get, Either
					

Graphics by Anna Wiederkehr One of the most pernicious parts of the COVID-19 crisis is how uncertain everything is. Researchers and officials cite statistical m…




					fivethirtyeight.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Be careful - one of you may be talking deaths in the USA, and the other worldwide.
> 
> Okay, so let us talk about models for a moment.
> 
> Like opinions, everyone has one.  And they don't all agree.  They aren't even very close to agreeing.  Even for a given model, the admitted breadth between the best and worst cases is very large.  Which amounts to saying, nobody actually knows.  The only consensus available is... it is bad, and needs some pretty drastic action to reduce the consequences.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Infectious Disease Experts Don’t Know How Bad The Coronavirus Is Going To Get, Either
> 
> 
> Graphics by Anna Wiederkehr One of the most pernicious parts of the COVID-19 crisis is how uncertain everything is. Researchers and officials cite statistical m…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> fivethirtyeight.com



A UK expert- commenting on the story that DC might be contemplating relaxing the current strictures to boost the economy- cautioned that the USA alone could see as many as 2.2M deaths from Covid-19.

Another recent article talked about a US MD who treated Ebola...and then contracted it.  He, too, is stunned at how bad things are.  

So yeah, numbers are all over the place, but most of the actual experts think this is a bad one.   Very bad.


----------



## Horwath

ad_hoc said:


> The figure that I've heard is up to 70%.
> 
> The plan is to have that happen over a long enough period to keep the death rate down.




That was Merkel's statement for German population.

But, you are right. Plan is to slow the rate of infection so health system is not overwhelmed with critical patients.

And if there is no vaccine in sight, only way to battle it, would be to gain herd immunity and hope that virus does not mutate too much for built up immunity.


----------



## Mistwell

I've converted my company, which normally makes judicial gowns and graduation caps and gowns and such, over to making washable, reusable masks.

They're not as good as N95 masks, but a lot of hospitals are using these kinds of masks over an N95 mask, then washing our mask daily, to preserve the N95 for additional uses.  And ours are pretty good for an ordinary consumer going shopping, or person still working at a place like a grocery store.

[If anyone wants to buy one, shoot me a PM and I will send you a link.]


----------



## Zardnaar

Mistwell said:


> I've converted my company, which normally makes judicial gowns and graduation caps and gowns and such, over to making washable, reusable masks.
> 
> They're not as good as N95 masks, but a lot of hospitals are using these kinds of masks over an N95 mask, then washing our mask daily, to preserve the N95 for additional uses.  And ours are pretty good for an ordinary consumer going shopping, or person still working at a place like a grocery store.
> 
> [If anyone wants to buy one, shoot me a PM and I will send you a link.]




Some fashion firms here are doing the same thing using whatever they have.

 Some are going to be made out of silk and merrino wool.


----------



## Zardnaar

Horwath said:


> That was Merkel's statement for German population.
> 
> But, you are right. Plan is to slow the rate of infection so health system is not overwhelmed with critical patients.
> 
> And if there is no vaccine in sight, only way to battle it, would be to gain herd immunity and hope that virus does not mutate too much for built up immunity.




 I got yelled at about a week ago when I said there's another way.

 Outbreed it. We don't know what the long term effects will be but might have to deal with it 1920s style.

 As I said hard core ideology types on both sides might get their worldview kicked in.

 We don't know the long term effects yet so who knows.

 In my harbor we have Quarantine Island. Our great grand parents dealt with it so will we. 

 We might not like the results. Might not have a choice.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Sometimes, life doesn’t give you any good choices, just various more/less bad ones.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Zardnaar said:


> They made it simple here. All takeaways and restaurants closed. In 10 hours we're in level 4 lockdown. Big box stores also closing.
> 
> Big box hardware stores can supply trades but not normal retail.




Here in the US, a lot of people below the poverty line, or a little above, but still lower class or lower-middle class, rarely have even a week's worth of groceries in their homes. But why bother with that when grocery stores are open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and there are restaurants everywhere. It is because of this that restaurants that can survive on take-out and delivery, and grocery and convenience stores, are considered essential businesses, and allowed to stay open in all but the most strict situations.

Gas stations (with or without an attached convenience store), hardware stores and auto parts stores are the same and stay open to the public.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sometimes, life doesn’t give you any good choices, just various more/less bad ones.




Yup bad, worse awful. Pick one.

 Crazy panic buying apparently today with 4 week lock down. 

 People stocked up for 14 days of self isolation. Not 4 weeks. Supermarkets are open but what happens if staff don't turn up or get sick?

Quietly stocked up over the last 3 weeks, had to pressure the wife into it. 

 "I've ordered more" didn't comprehend the difference between ordering and receiving. Now we're in lockdown probably can't get that order. 

Didn't get as much as I wanted, overlooked some things but avoided the worst of the panic buying.

 You're all doom and gloom. Response we'll be in lockdown by the end of the week. Won't be surprised if it's the middle. 

 Today's Wednesday.


----------



## Coroc

Zardnaar said:


> I got yelled at about a week ago when I said there's another way.
> 
> Outbreed it. We don't know what the long term effects will be but might have to deal with it 1920s style.
> 
> As I said hard core ideology types on both sides might get their worldview kicked in.
> 
> We don't know the long term effects yet so who knows.
> 
> In my harbor we have Quarantine Island. Our great grand parents dealt with it so will we.
> 
> We might not like the results. Might not have a choice.




It is better to combat it any way you can. It might leave scarred lung tissue and it also can afflict younger people. But my worry is how long any sort of quarantine could go on. One or two years is the wrong answer here, it is more like one or two month at best for most areas in the world.

Prob. is, every severe case needs a ICU bed evtly with artificial respiration. That is one bed not available for some ordinary woes like a appendix infection or some injured car crash victim.

That is the delimiter. So everyone arguing to insulate the risk patients and/or to let it run wild is batshit crazy and has not thought this through in all consequences.


----------



## Zardnaar

Coroc said:


> It is better to combat it any way you can. It might leave scarred lung tissue and it also can afflict younger people. But my worry is how long any sort of quarantine could go on. One or two years is the wrong answer here, it is more like one or two month at best for most areas in the world.
> 
> Prob. is, every severe case needs a ICU bed evtly with artificial respiration. That is one bed not available for some ordinary woes like a appendix infection or some injured car crash victim.
> 
> That is the delimiter. So everyone arguing to insulate the risk patients and/or to let it run wild is batshit crazy and has not thought this through in all consequences.




 They made those decisions in Italy and Spain. We've had 0 deaths, 6 in ICU, 0 on ventilator. 

 200 cases we might make it reasonably alright.


----------



## ad_hoc

Coroc said:


> It is better to combat it any way you can. It might leave scarred lung tissue and it also can afflict younger people. But my worry is how long any sort of quarantine could go on. One or two years is the wrong answer here, it is more like one or two month at best for most areas in the world.
> 
> Prob. is, every severe case needs a ICU bed evtly with artificial respiration. That is one bed not available for some ordinary woes like a appendix infection or some injured car crash victim.
> 
> That is the delimiter. So everyone arguing to insulate the risk patients and/or to let it run wild is batshit crazy and has not thought this through in all consequences.




Depends on what you mean by 'quarantine'.

In Canada if you are a recent traveler or suspect you have had close contact with someone who might have it then you are to go into 14 day isolation. That means not leaving your house for anything, even groceries.

Everyone in the country is expected to practice social distancing. That means only leaving the house for essential tasks like grocery shopping or to get some walking exercise. Groups no larger than 2 people.

The federal health minister has stated that social distancing will probably be in effect for months. I commented to my doctor today (via telephone) about being in for 3-4 months and she said to expect longer.


----------



## Coroc

ad_hoc said:


> Depends on what you mean by 'quarantine'.
> 
> In Canada if you are a recent traveler or suspect you have had close contact with someone who might have it then you are to go into 14 day isolation. That means not leaving your house for anything, even groceries.
> 
> Everyone in the country is expected to practice social distancing. That means only leaving the house for essential tasks like grocery shopping or to get some walking exercise. Groups no larger than 2 people.
> 
> The federal health minister has stated that social distancing will probably be in effect for months. I commented to my doctor today (via telephone) about being in for 3-4 months and she said to expect longer.




Sorry I was not clear enough I did not mean actual quarantine but the social lockdown which we got e.g. here in Germany, and which requires the government to support every company and workers, who cannot work anymore due to this.
But this is only the economic aspect of it.

Although some do not see this, but this solitary isolation or forced core family isolation can cause all sort of social problems too. Sometimes people still live together, but in reality should better have split up long ago, but I know cases where pairs are still together just because of the big house they own or the children they got, and before Corona they could both have their own social circle but this is not possible anymore.
Or if there is already a situation out of hand with domestic violence and now there is not even an escape for the victims.

For singles they got no possibility to meet people anymore. Especially if you are young and in this situation you might get irresponsible at some point if the isolating lasts to long.


----------



## Mirtek

I wonder what will happen when covid really goes dormant in summer only to come back in winter, like some experts predict, and this second outbreak will hit the hospitals at the very same time as the skyrocketing birth rates when all these "corona babies" arrive 

The effect of way shorter events, like power outtages, on birth rates are well documented.


----------



## Coroc

Mirtek said:


> I wonder what will happen when covid really goes dormant in summer only to come back in winter, like some experts predict, and this second outbreak will hit the hospitals at the very same time as the skyrocketing birth rates when all these "corona babies" arrive
> 
> The effect of way shorter events, like power outtages, on birth rates are well documented.




Well, that happens if people only stock toilet paper instead of condoms


----------



## Sadras

Mirtek said:


> I wonder what will happen when covid really goes dormant in summer only to come back in winter, like some experts predict ...(snip)...




Stop listening to those _experts _and pay attention to what is happening in the southern hemisphere.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sadras said:


> Stop listening to those _experts _and pay attention to what is happening in the southern hemisphere.




  The only anglosphere nation with an effective government?


----------



## Hussar

Ok, just to interject here.  As someone who lives in a country (Japan) which has been dealing with this for a bit longer than you folks have, take a really, really deep breath.  

Can it be really bad?  Yup.  It can.  Look at Italy.

OTOH, look at Japan.  Our first case was over a month ago, and, yes, there have been cases all over the country, but, certainly not to the panic levels that I'm seeing here.  (Barring that complete stupidity over that stupid cruise ship :Grrr: )  Yes, we closed our schools for a month.  Yup, they've cancelled a lot of the group activities.

And, it is apparently working.  Cases are declining.  China is opening up Wuhan.  

I dunno.  Maybe because this is the third pandemic I've been through in the past twenty years - I was in Asia for SARS, and MERS and a few other goodies as well.  It's hard not to get a bit more blase about it.  Take precautions, be careful, and things are going to sort themselves out in a few weeks.

Deep breaths.  That's the ticket.  Well, deep breaths far away from other people.


----------



## R_J_K75




----------



## Ogre Mage

Hussar said:


> OTOH, look at Japan.  Our first case was over a month ago, and, yes, there have been cases all over the country, but, certainly not to the panic levels that I'm seeing here.  (Barring that complete stupidity over that stupid cruise ship :Grrr: )  Yes, we closed our schools for a month.  Yup, they've cancelled a lot of the group activities.
> 
> And, it is apparently working. Cases are declining. China is opening up Wuhan.




The problem is that in the United States we have abysmally incompetent "leadership" at the federal level which does not believe in science.  Not what you want in a global pandemic.  And because there is more of a culture of individualism here, there are a lot of f**king selfish idiots who insist that no politician is going to tell them what to do.  So they are out partying at Spring Break in Florida and hitting the clubs and what not, spreading the virus.  They make me want to scream.  There is not the culture of common good and compliance in the United States like there is in Japan and some other Asian countries.


----------



## Olrox17

Ogre Mage said:


> The problem is that in the United States we have abysmally incompetent "leadership" at the federal level.  And because there is more of a culture of individualism here, there are a lot of f**king selfish idiots who insist that no politician is going to tell them what to do.  So they are out partying at Spring Break in Florida and hitting the clubs and what not, spreading the virus.  They make me want to scream.  There is not the culture of common good and compliance in the United States like there is in Japan and some other Asian countries.



I guess it’s the price of living in a western society. The same happened here in Italy at the beginning of the outbreak. Now the government has enforced draconian measures, police checkpoints are everywhere, and some dumbasses still try to weasel their way around the containment rules.

Around 40k people have been caught so far, they face severe fines or even jail time. Idiots.


----------



## Ogre Mage

Olrox17 said:


> I guess it’s the price of living in a western society. The same happened here in Italy at the beginning of the outbreak. Now the government has enforced draconian measures, police checkpoints are everywhere, and some dumbasses still try to weasel their way around the containment rules.
> 
> Around 40k people have been caught so far, they face severe fines or even jail time. Idiots.




I fear the U.S. is going to wind up like your country.  I live in Washington State which was the initial epicenter of the U.S. outbreak.  Thankfully, the political leadership here DOES believe in science (what a concept).  So there is some hope for my home state at least.


----------



## Sadras

Zardnaar said:


> The only anglosphere nation with an effective government?




You're cheating 



Hussar said:


> OTOH, look at Japan.  Our first case was over a month ago, and, yes, there have been cases all over the country, but, certainly not to the panic levels that I'm seeing here.




The culture of the Japanese is very different to the culture of the Americans which is very different to the culture of the South Africans. For a while the mentality here was that this was a white person's virus and would not affect people of colour - nevermind the singing and dancing at massive parties by the youth while chanting _corona! corona!_


----------



## Zardnaar

Sadras said:


> You're cheating
> 
> 
> 
> The culture of the Japanese is very different to the culture of the Americans which is very different to the culture of the South Africans. For a while the mentality here was that this was a white person's virus and would not affect people of colour - nevermind the singing and dancing at massive parties by the youth while chanting _corona! corona!_




If you want a Southern Hemisphere example Brazil I think is going to be one.

 Anglo-Saxons not good at following orders though. We've had problems here I was almost yelling at in laws last Friday and Saturday.

 Things started sinking in Saturday though when the PM did a presidential style emergency broadcast.

 Started early isolation and last played D&D 3 weeks ago.

 Jacinda getting good at this. Our wartime PM is over her shoulder.





__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com
				




 Best vote I ever made in my life lol.


----------



## R_J_K75

Ogre Mage said:


> The problem is that in the United States we have abysmally incompetent "leadership" at the federal level which does not believe in science.




Trumps speech on Monday was pathetic.  He looked defeated and was just reading that speech as quick as he could.  Barely looked up. He thinks this is a season of the Apprentice, FFS Gary Busey could do a better job leading this country.

About a possible drug against COVID-19 Trump said and Im paraphrasing..."There was a guy, said goodbye to his family.  Took this pill, fell asleep, woke up, felt better, a little while later he was fine, now hes fine".  He's acting like the guy got Covid-19, had an asprin with some OJ, took a nap and... "hes fine, now hes fine"!


----------



## Oofta

R_J_K75 said:


> Trumps speech on Monday was pathetic.  He looked defeated and was just reading that speech as quick as he could.  Barely looked up. He thinks this is a season of the Apprentice, FFS Gary Busey could do a better job leading this country.
> 
> About a possible drug against COVID-19 Trump said and Im paraphrasing..."There was a guy, said goodbye to his family.  Took this pill, fell asleep, woke up, felt better, a little while later he was fine, now hes fine".  He's acting like the guy got Covid-19, had an asprin with some OJ, took a nap and... "hes fine, now hes fine"!



Well, it is true that around 80% of the people that get sick don't get _that_ sick.  So just hope you're one of the lucky ones I guess?

But then we have Glenn Beck (along with a smattering of others) saying that they'd rather risk dying than kill the economy.  I just ... people's priorities baffle me sometimes.


----------



## Umbran

R_J_K75 said:


> Trumps speech on Monday was pathetic.




*Mod Note:*
Folks, we know that government response to this is part and parcel to the issue, but can we keep the partisan commentary down as much as possible please?  If we can't, the thread will just close, which isn't really a constructive end.


----------



## Umbran

Oofta said:


> I just ... people's priorities baffle me sometimes.




Humans are amazingly bad at risk assessment, and not very good at things beyond proximal empathy.

As was pointed out in an opinion piece I read this morning - "In this plague, if you catch it, _other people die." _Which means that your reaction to it is largely dependent on how you treat other people.


----------



## Umbran

Mistwell said:


> I've converted my company, which normally makes judicial gowns and graduation caps and gowns and such, over to making washable, reusable masks.




Dude, that's _awesome_.  Thank you.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Olrox17 said:


> I guess it’s the price of living in a western society. The same happened here in Italy at the beginning of the outbreak. Now the government has enforced draconian measures, police checkpoints are everywhere, and some dumbasses still try to weasel their way around the containment rules.
> 
> Around 40k people have been caught so far, they face severe fines or even jail time. Idiots.




Yep.  I lived in South Korea for several years.  One of the reasons they were able to get a handle on this much better than the US is because of culture.  I hate to say it, but our country (the US) is rooted in individualism and what's in it for me.  It's been that way since the Mayflower, and really took hold in the 19th century with massive westward expansion.


----------



## Umbran

Sacrosanct said:


> Yep.  I lived in South Korea for several years.  One of the reasons they were able to get a handle on this much better than the US is because of culture.




The biggest reason, however, is that they had to deal with MERS, and had maintained a stockpile of testing reagents that the rest of the world lacked.


----------



## Umbran

Mirtek said:


> I wonder what will happen when covid really goes dormant in summer only to come back in winter, like some experts predict...




Broadly speaking, real experts don't _predict_ that.  They mention it as a possibility, and then non-experts mis-report it as a prediction.


----------



## GreyLord

On gaming, I tried starting a new game up via online tools, or a thing some of you may use or know about called Portal.  No contact between us except a screen.  Multiple people can be on screen at the same time all talking to each other.

We tried to do character creation (In the end, I ended up just rolling six stats and telling everyone to use that, I couldn't see what everyone was rolling and it was becoming chaos).  We finally got characters made, and I've started running Dungeon of the Mad Mage.  See how that goes.

So far, it's not as fun (but that's probably because the chaos of character creation.  Normally I like to see the rolls.  Not sure how I'm going to check rolls on this with half of the rolls being out of site of the screen).

Could go well, or not.

On the otherhand, if ALL of us (not all of us have this yet) are forced to stay at home in our houses, it could be that we end up doing a LOT of playing via portal as we will all have a ton more time.

Other than that, been reading a lot of the FFG Star Wars RPG, which reminds me I want to put a poll up on that.


----------



## Longspeak

I already game online, and last weekend my online gaming saw its first corona-related hiccup. One player had been working from home and needed to makeup lost hours, while another was going emergency supply shopping with family. Still, only a hiccup.

The week before we had minor roll20 disruptions because of the increased server load of many more games running.

My wife and son are no longer doing their weekly game - and as of today are forbidden to by order of the Governor of Washington.

I work in an essential business and we're open right now, with all precautions in place. But... business is down so much I worry we'll close anyway. Well, I _say_ "worry." But honestly, I'd feel safer at home. But... as long as we're open, I can't go home without giving up my paycheck. If we close, I have recourses. If I just stay home, my family and I have other issues.

The best part is, right after Governor Inslee issued the order on Monday, we received the news that the main bridge we take to and from work is closing indefinitely due to structural issues found in the last inspection. Someone REALLY doesn't want my family going to work.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well technically we are are a police state officially.









						Coronavirus: Welcome to the pandemic police state
					

OPINION: The real surprise, in a crisis, is how many people are willing to give up their freedoms for the greater good.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Jacinda's velvet glove.


----------



## Galendril

Umbran said:


> Broadly speaking, real experts don't _predict_ that.  They mention it as a possibility, and then non-experts mis-report it as a prediction.



Agreed!  There are places in the world that are quite warm now and are still experiencing deaths from Covid-19


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Galendril said:


> Agreed!  There are places in the world that are quite warm now and are still experiencing deaths from Covid-19




More specifically, the hypothesis is that hot and humid together suppress the virus. Just hot would not be enough, so yes to the tropics, but no to a lot of Africa, for example. So if this ends up being true, we would see a more rapid recovery in Florida than in New York during the Summer.


----------



## Istbor

Yep. My state officially declared the "safer-at-home" in effect, yesterday.

Still driving the few minutes to work as our company is designated as essential. Quite busy as well. This business is currently pumping out reagents for the COVID-19 test kits and some testing instruments as fast as it can.

While most are working from home it is still very much all hands on deck. 

Parents just got back from Texas over the winter and I had to tell them it will be a month at least before I can see them. Which is totally fine. Both have existing health conditions that could result it making them more susceptible to complications if they get sick. 

On a lighter note, I did just get my Arcana of the Ancients from Monte Cooks kickstarter for Numenera material for 5e. 

Also working on converting as much of my current home campaign to Roll20 as quickly as I can. Just need a good mape making tool. Give me a shout if anyone has a good recommendation. Was waiting for DungeonFog but... time table has been briskly pushed forward. Lol.


----------



## seebs

Reagents for test kits does indeed seem essential.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Finally got most of the bugs worked out.  Still some minor ones (like not all PCs having their darkvision working right with dynamic lighting), but we're good to go for Roll20 with discord as the audio


----------



## Mistwell

My company converted from making graduation caps and gowns to making washable reusable face masks (ACAmasks.com). I am curious if anyone can think of a D&D related small image we might embroider on the mask? We have full industrial level embroidery machines and they're silent at the moment. A d20?


----------



## Zardnaar

For those of you who think ordering from Amazon is a good/ethical idea.









						Amazon Workers Are Scared, Unprotected As Coronavirus Sweeps Through Warehouses
					

Workers say they're being pushed to the brink, even as the company fails to protect them from the COVID-19 pandemic.




					m.huffpost.com
				




 Last package I bought I got it direct from the publisher. Cost more but oh well.

 They've shut down online shopping and delivery here. Use what you have,PDFs/online or take a break IMHO.


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> For those of you who think ordering from Amazon is a good/ethical idea.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Amazon Workers Are Scared, Unprotected As Coronavirus Sweeps Through Warehouses
> 
> 
> Workers say they're being pushed to the brink, even as the company fails to protect them from the COVID-19 pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> m.huffpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Last package I bought I got it direct from the publisher. Cost more but oh well.
> 
> They've shut down online shopping and delivery here. Use what you have,PDFs/online or take a break IMHO.




I have never thought it was particularly ethical practice. Warehouse or fulfillment centers work their employees to the bone on the regular. Not to mention other reasons to dislike shopping moving online.

So yeah, adding a fatigued person to a pandemic is kindling to fire.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Their fulfillment centers are absolutely dangerous right now, considering how virulent COVID-19 is and the lack of protections afforded the workers. And considering that Amazon's Prime delivery can take place in only 1-3 days, the virus could easily be spread to customers, like wildfire.



Istbor said:


> I have never thought it was particularly ethical practice. Warehouse or fulfillment centers work their employees to the bone on the regular. Not to mention other reasons to dislike shopping moving online.
> 
> So yeah, adding a fatigued person to a pandemic is kindling to fire.


----------



## MoonSong

Zardnaar said:


> For those of you who think ordering from Amazon is a good/ethical idea.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Amazon Workers Are Scared, Unprotected As Coronavirus Sweeps Through Warehouses
> 
> 
> Workers say they're being pushed to the brink, even as the company fails to protect them from the COVID-19 pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> m.huffpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Last package I bought I got it direct from the publisher. Cost more but oh well.
> 
> They've shut down online shopping and delivery here. Use what you have,PDFs/online or take a break IMHO.



Just one reason to wait for any non-essential shopping, and to use the local E-bay equivalent instead. But really, right now is the time to just stay home, go out for groceries only when needed and keep up with work and school. There'll always be a better time to get nooks, CDs and doodads.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ralif Redhammer said:


> Their fulfillment centers are absolutely dangerous right now, considering how virulent COVID-19 is and the lack of protections afforded the workers. And considering that Amazon's Prime delivery can take place in only 1-3 days, the virus could easily be spread to customers, like wildfire.




 This. People don't seem to get it yet. Deliveries can bring Covid into your house and the distribution centers right now not the best. 

 D&D's not essential. 

 A supermarket distribution center doesn't use that many people relative to preparing the food at home or Amazon shipping non essential crap 

 There's no takeout her. No coffee except what you make at home. 

 Functionally we became a police state two days ago.  They're closing a few stores who thought they were essential and they're not. 

 Deaths in USA hit 300 a day and you're just starting. 

 Here they're preparing quarantine facilities where the cops and/or military will be to happy to drag you off if you don't self isolate.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> Just one reason to wait for any non-essential shopping, and to use the local E-bay equivalent instead. But really, right now is the time to just stay home, go out for groceries only when needed and keep up with work and school. There'll always be a better time to get nooks, CDs and doodads.




 You were one of the ones who thought it was a great idea to buy the D&D basic set.

 It's not. D&D will still be there in a month or three.


----------



## MoonSong

Zardnaar said:


> You were one of the ones who thought it was a great idea to buy the D&D basic set.
> 
> It's not. D&D will still be there in a month or three.



No, I said I predicted the Essentials Kit would go up in sales. Mostly because it is already there when people go grocery shopping and the thing by itself is a good investment for entertainment, and it is on Amazon on a time when online shopping is going through the roof. I didn't mean that everybody should go and get one.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> /snip
> 
> Deaths in USA hit 300 a day and you're just starting.
> 
> Here they're preparing quarantine facilities where the cops and/or military will be to happy to drag you off if you don't self isolate.




Umm, they just hit 1000 deaths in the US.  Total.  Not 300 a day.  Let's not get too hysterical shall we?  And, again, even if it was 300, this is a country of 300 million people.  More than 300 people a day die in all sorts of ways.  

Again, a bit of perspective and calm is far more helpful than panic.  





__





						Zerohedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Umm, they just hit 1000 deaths in the US.  Total.  Not 300 a day.  Let's not get too hysterical shall we?  And, again, even if it was 300, this is a country of 300 million people.  More than 300 people a day die in all sorts of ways.
> 
> Again, a bit of perspective and calm is far more helpful than panic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zerohedge
> 
> 
> ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.zerohedge.com




 I know the death rate is only a 1000 total but it's been ramping up and it's very early days. 

 I thought you would have more chance getting shot to death in the USA than Corona but I'm not convinced of that any more.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Hussar said:


> Umm, they just hit 1000 deaths in the US.  Total.  Not 300 a day.  Let's not get too hysterical shall we?  And, again, even if it was 300, this is a country of 300 million people.  More than 300 people a day die in all sorts of ways.
> 
> Again, a bit of perspective and calm is far more helpful than panic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zerohedge
> 
> 
> ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.zerohedge.com





Yes,  a bit of perspective is more helpful.  You're completely disregarding how the growth is still exponential.   The total number of deaths is not as important as how fast those deaths are happening.  And since we know it takes 2 weeks or longer from getting positive to death, we're still two weeks behind as far as data goes in that regard.  2 weeks ago, there were only 27 deaths in the US with 1000 identified positive.


----------



## Oofta

Sacrosanct said:


> Yes,  a bit of perspective is more helpful.  You're completely disregarding how the growth is still exponential.   The total number of deaths is not as important as how fast those deaths are happening.  And since we know it takes 2 weeks or longer from getting positive to death, we're still two weeks behind as far as data goes in that regard.  2 weeks ago, there were only 27 deaths in the US with 1000 identified positive.




Not to mention that we still have no idea how many people actually have the virus because we can't be bothered to roll out effective across-the-board testing.

I'm relatively lucky to be in a state where things haven't completely exploded and they're still putting us on lockdown starting tomorrow night.  But they also admit that it's too late for containment, or to "flatten the curve".  They're just hoping to line things up so that when it does explode they can handle it.

Between 15-20% of the people that get sick will need hospitalization.  Hospitalization increases your chance of survival 10 fold.  Add in all the unknowns like 50% of the people in Iceland (where they _have_ done extensive testing) that have antibodies for the virus show no symptoms whatsoever and we don't know if people are immune after recovery.


----------



## NotAYakk

Hussar said:


> Umm, they just hit 1000 deaths in the US.  Total.  Not 300 a day.  Let's not get too hysterical shall we?  And, again, even if it was 300, this is a country of 300 million people.  More than 300 people a day die in all sorts of ways.
> 
> Again, a bit of perspective and calm is far more helpful than panic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zerohedge
> 
> 
> ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.zerohedge.com



None of those other ways of dieing double every 3 days and have for months.

Please stop saying "don't panic" when you don't take into account growth rates and talk about the start of an exponential curve.  If you don't pay attention to growth rates, yes, it looks like there is nothing to worry about.

But when something gets 2x as big every 3 days or 10x every 10 days without massive intervention, and *half of the country isn't doing that intervention*, then 1000 becomes 10,000 becomes 100,000 becomes 1 million in the blink of an eye.

Then you add in that the interventions have a 2-3 week *delay* in stopping that growth in deaths, and if you aren't panicing, you aren't paying attention.

Spain and France are in deep trouble.  Saying you are better off than Spain and France isn't saying much.  UK almost decided to go "let it burn", and has only recently changed course.

Of all of those places, only USA is convex *up* on the deaths curve on a logarithmic graph.  You don't want to be convex up on a logarithmic graph.

Basically, WA managed the epidemic by going into lockdown early enough, and got an early spike of 20 cases in a single health care facility as its "4th death".  This gave it a much slower curve, as it started lockdown earlier in the epidemic

Now NYC is taking off, and it has less than a week of social distancing.  Its local epidemic deaths are exploding at +33% per day, or 2x faster than every 3 days.

Basically, the growth factor of the US epidemic switched from 2x every 10 days to 2x every 3 days as WA's epidemic was overtaken by NY's epidemic.

Other state epidemics are growing like NYC not WA.

The problem with the epidemic isn't *panic* it is *lack of panic*.


----------



## ad_hoc

The USA is now the country with the highest number of confirmed cases in the world at 82 000.

Their numbers continue to climb.









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,423,321 Cases and 2,703,987 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				




By state:









						United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## FrogReaver

In potentially good news.  It took 3 days to double the number of cases in the U.S. (a first since reaching high numbers)

Of course at some point our testing will hit capacity and at that point the number of cases will appear to only be growing linearly (manufacturing tests is essentially constant - testing 100,000 people a day will show linear growth to overall number of people tested).  I would bet we will reach that point soon.  So really it's the death curve that's going to be important to watch in the upcoming weeks.


----------



## Sacrosanct

ad_hoc said:


> The USA is now the country with the highest number of confirmed cases in the world at 82 000.
> 
> Their numbers continue to climb.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,423,321 Cases and 2,703,987 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> By state:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
> 
> 
> United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info





I'd suggest looking at the logarithmic scale as opposed to the linear one.  The logarithmic scale shows you if we're still in exponential growth, which is the biggest indicator of how tough it will look in the future.   Once that starts to flatten, then we know we're near peak.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

@FrogReaver  go and look at the Virginia Dept of Health page again for today. They have started giving more statistics like breaking down the number of cases by age groups and sex and race. I would copy and paste it here, but I can seem to get it to work for me.


----------



## ad_hoc

Sacrosanct said:


> I'd suggest looking at the logarithmic scale as opposed to the linear one.  The logarithmic scale shows you if we're still in exponential growth, which is the biggest indicator of how tough it will look in the future.   Once that starts to flatten, then we know we're near peak.




One tough thing about looking at a scale like that is that it is confined by the amount of testing that can be done.

I've read that the USA is currently at 70 000 tests per day and are looking to increase that to 100 000. 

Of course the rate of positives can continue to climb within that.

If you take a look at the numbers by states, there are quite a few which are starting to explode. 5-10 states on that list have doubled in the last 2 days from 1000 cases to 2000. 

New Jersey has gained 2500 cases today alone.


----------



## ad_hoc

Here are some logarithmic charts.


----------



## NotAYakk

Based off* ad_hoc's *graphs above:

8 days for 10x increase in number of confirmed cases.

8 days for a 10x increase in the number of deaths (last 8 days).

This indicates to me that it is very plausible that the "testing coverage" in the USA isn't getting better/worse.

There are 100 positive deaths for every death.  If a death takes an average of 20 days since infection, and every 8 days the epidemic is getting 10x larger, in those 20 days the epidemic has gotten 316x larger, unless social distancing has kicked in.  If we assume social distancing has lowered the spread to 2x every 8 days in the last 8 days, the epidemic has instead gotten 10^1.5 * 2 or 63 time bigger.  So in the next 20 days, you can expect 6,300 deaths.  If it didn't, you can instead expect 31,600 deaths.

6300 deaths is at the edge of the entire country's medical capabilities, because for every dead person in a high quality hospital, you have 5-15 people in the ICU.  And 30,000 to 90,000 ICUs will take every ICU not in use in the USA.

If almost all of your confirmed cases are people arriving with serious issues in hospital, and that happens ~8 days after infection, then since they got infected the epidemic has gotten 10x larger.

When the 80,000 people who are diagnosed got infected, back on March 18, there are now about 800,000 people who are going to get sick enough to need hospital care.  This will respond quicker to isolation, however.

If we map back 1.5 more weeks (12 days) we get to 2,500 people on or before March 4th who got sick and will eventually need serious hospital care.  About 5x the dead, which is not that inconsistent with other countries.

Based on 1918, this will hit big cities first, then burn through the countryside.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Hussar said:


> Umm, they just hit 1000 deaths in the US.  Total.  Not 300 a day.  Let's not get too hysterical shall we?  And, again, even if it was 300, this is a country of 300 million people.  More than 300 people a day die in all sorts of ways.
> 
> Again, a bit of perspective and calm is far more helpful than panic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zerohedge
> 
> 
> ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.zerohedge.com




And it's even lower, because we don't test as many people. We are only seeing the rate of those that are hospitalized.


----------



## FrogReaver

dnd4vr said:


> So... no, we would not cancel our sessions.
> 
> This pandemic is a lot of media hype. I am not saying it isn't there or real, and I feel horrible for the regions affected, but media feeds into the fears of the people. I do a lot in the stock markets, and this is the kind of stuff that drives me crazy! People are stockpiling supplies like it is the end of the world.
> 
> If the news was broadcast in grayscale and not color, people wouldn't be nearly as freaked out. Consider this revised map:
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Revised Map
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 119761
> 
> 
> 
> No reaction, right? Could mean anything.
> 
> Now, look at site like Wikipedia even, notice how the map is just shades of red?
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Original Map
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 119762
> 
> 
> 
> Our reaction is something scary is going on. According to this map, it looks like all 1 billion plus people in China are already gone!
> 
> And that causes fear and panic instead of rational reactions.
> 
> Certainly in areas where the virus is present, people need to be cautious, but media pushes it overboard in my estimation.
> 
> So, we will continue to meet to play D&D.




curious if this is still your opinion?


----------



## seebs

I really worry for the people whose local leaders or the people they look up to told them this was No Big Deal, and now they're finding out that maybe that wasn't totally accurate. One guy who was saying it was all media hype is now dead from it, which has got to be a source of concern for all the people who took his advice.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

...and there are STILL people who do not grasp what’s going on.

I’ve seen a couple interviews in which so much ignorance was on display that- even though I don’t want to wish misfortune on anyone- that part of my brain starts paraphrasing Betty White’s line from _Lake Placid_, “Personally, I’m rooting for the virus!”

The position espoused that really triggers that evil thought is that, because nobody in their personal circle is suffering, then Covid-19 is a hoax or being overblown by the media.  Some of them add a political spin to it, some of them are ageist, some are xenophobic.

Really puts the “ass” in ”astounding”.


----------



## Horwath

NotAYakk said:


> None of those other ways of dieing double every 3 days and have for months.
> 
> Please stop saying "don't panic" when you don't take into account growth rates and talk about the start of an exponential curve.  If you don't pay attention to growth rates, yes, it looks like there is nothing to worry about.
> 
> But when something gets 2x as big every 3 days or 10x every 10 days without massive intervention, and *half of the country isn't doing that intervention*, then 1000 becomes 10,000 becomes 100,000 becomes 1 million in the blink of an eye.
> 
> Then you add in that the interventions have a 2-3 week *delay* in stopping that growth in deaths, and if you aren't panicing, you aren't paying attention.
> 
> Spain and France are in deep trouble.  Saying you are better off than Spain and France isn't saying much.  UK almost decided to go "let it burn", and has only recently changed course.
> 
> Of all of those places, only USA is convex *up* on the deaths curve on a logarithmic graph.  You don't want to be convex up on a logarithmic graph.
> 
> Basically, WA managed the epidemic by going into lockdown early enough, and got an early spike of 20 cases in a single health care facility as its "4th death".  This gave it a much slower curve, as it started lockdown earlier in the epidemic
> 
> Now NYC is taking off, and it has less than a week of social distancing.  Its local epidemic deaths are exploding at +33% per day, or 2x faster than every 3 days.
> 
> Basically, the growth factor of the US epidemic switched from 2x every 10 days to 2x every 3 days as WA's epidemic was overtaken by NY's epidemic.
> 
> Other state epidemics are growing like NYC not WA.
> 
> The problem with the epidemic isn't *panic* it is *lack of panic*.




Panic is NEVER good.

People should be aware and take precaution, but never panic.

It leads to shortages as people buy 3842 rolls of toilet paper, there are shortages of masks.

And not to mention that panic shopping leads to literal fistfight over packs of toilet paper and Nutella.

How did French get that much infected? Look at a vidoe of people raiding a palette of Nutella lik a school of piranhas.

How to avoid contagion? Obvious by getting lots of peoples saliva/blood on your fist/face.
/facepalm.

If you have to work with people, buy a mask(if you can find any...), don't do handshakes in this period, try to buy with cards(PIN-less if you can), and wash your hands and face.

This virus is highly contagious and probably we will all get it.
But, we need to slow down the speed of contagion so medical system is not broken with people that need critical care of it.

And hopefully we will get a vaccine before most of us has to go through the "Darwin gauntlet".


----------



## FrogReaver

Horwath said:


> Panic is NEVER good.
> 
> People should be aware and take precaution, but never panic.
> 
> It leads to shortages as people buy 3842 rolls of toilet paper, there are shortages of masks.
> 
> And not to mention that panic shopping leads to literal fistfight over packs of toilet paper and Nutella.
> 
> How did French get that much infected? Look at a vidoe of people raiding a palette of Nutella lik a school of piranhas.
> 
> How to avoid contagion? Obvious by getting lots of peoples saliva/blood on your fist/face.
> /facepalm.
> 
> If you have to work with people, buy a mask(if you can find any...), don't do handshakes in this period, try to buy with cards(PIN-less if you can), and wash your hands and face.
> 
> This virus is highly contagious and probably we will all get it.
> But, we need to slow down the speed of contagion so medical system is not broken with people that need critical care of it.
> 
> And hopefully we will get a vaccine before most of us has to go through the "Darwin gauntlet".




I'm afraid in U.S. the medical system is already broken and we just haven't realized it yet.  2-3 weeks away from peak (best case) and we already have 80000 cases with 1300 dead.


----------



## Azzy

FrogReaver said:


> I'm afraid in U.S. the medical system is already broken and we just haven't realized it yet.  2-3 weeks away from peak and we already have 80000 cases with 1300 dead.



Oh, I've realized it for years.


----------



## FrogReaver

We are on pace to be at 1.2 million cases within at least 12 days, maybe 8 days.  (I don't think we can test that many).

In 2-3 weeks we are on pace for 10 million cases.  Assuming the 3% mortality rate estimate - that's 300,000 dead.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

FrogReaver said:


> We are on pace to be at 1.2 million cases within at least 12 days, maybe 8 days.  (I don't think we can test that many).
> 
> In 2-3 weeks we are on pace for 10 million cases.  Assuming the 3% mortality rate estimate - that's 300,000 dead.




Plus all the people who will get it, or who have already had it, and will never know, or think it was something else and get better. So more like 30-40 million cases and the death rate will end up under 1% of total cases, which is still 300k.


----------



## ad_hoc

Canada has 4 000 cases and 39 deaths. 

That is 107 cases per million and 1 death per million population.

And all of our politicians are united together among all levels of government with our doctors that this is very serious. Every address they make is serious and they constantly implore people to not leave their houses. Various levels of enforcement have now been authorized to that end and I believe they will become more heavily enforced as some people continue to flaunt the mandate to stay home.

I imagine this is probably how it is being handled in most other countries. Then we have America. I've watched a couple press conferences lately. Trump and his team talk as though they are through the worst part, they have treatments and cures on the way, and have all the medical equipment they need. They want to lift the lockdowns April 12th.

They currently have 259 cases per million and 4 deaths per million population. 1 in 500 people in New York state has a confirmed case of COVID 19.

The USA is going to be hit hardest because of their weak mandate to social distancing. 

That hurts Canada too because Canadians watch a lot of American politics, so they're going to be hearing that it isn't a big deal. Journalists have asked our politicians (I believe it was the Deputy Prime Minister) about American's strategy and how she felt about it and her response was "we are choosing to follow the science". That was the most diplomatic way she could think of to respond.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> Canada has 4 000 cases and 39 deaths.
> 
> That is 107 cases per million and 1 death per million population.
> 
> And all of our politicians are united together among all levels of government with our doctors that this is very serious. Every address they make is serious and they constantly implore people to not leave their houses. Various levels of enforcement have now been authorized to that end and I believe they will become more heavily enforced as some people continue to flaunt the mandate to stay home.
> 
> I imagine this is probably how it is being handled in most other countries. Then we have America. I've watched a couple press conferences lately. Trump and his team talk as though they are through the worst part, they have treatments and cures on the way, and have all the medical equipment they need. They want to lift the lockdowns April 12th.
> 
> They currently have 259 cases per million and 4 deaths per million population. 1 in 500 people in New York state has a confirmed case of COVID 19.
> 
> The USA is going to be hit hardest because of their weak mandate to social distancing.
> 
> That hurts Canada too because Canadians watch a lot of American politics, so they're going to be hearing that it isn't a big deal. Journalists have asked our politicians (I believe it was the Deputy Prime Minister) about American's strategy and how she felt about it and her response was "we are choosing to follow the science". That was the most diplomatic way she could think of to respond.




For the most part - internally the U.S. doesn't function as one nation nor as separate countries that can close their borders.  Our political makeup will make social distancing on the national scale nearly impossible.  In areas it isn't bad in yet - they will be lax on it.  In areas it's hard hit they will go more extreme.  The problem is without us working in unison this is going to be one very prolonged battle where we constantly export the virus back to places that recovered from it.  So on some level maybe he's right that the best option for the U.S. may be to just tough it out because the will isn't there for all states and counties and cities to work together and all make the necessary sacrifices on this.

It's almost as if we are in a real life prisoner's dilemma and aren't sticking to the smart play.


----------



## ad_hoc

Horwath said:


> Panic is NEVER good.
> 
> People should be aware and take precaution, but never panic.




Unfortunately people are using it as an accusation against anyone who is doing the reasonable and responsible thing and social distancing.

I'm still having arguments with people on my marketplace ads sites. I just had one message me and I told them to 'stay home'. They told me to 'stop panicking'. Like, that's not what panic is. It's frustrating.

'Don't worry so much, just live your life' is going to be the death of us.


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> For the most part - internally the U.S. doesn't function as one nation nor as separate countries that can close their borders.  Our political makeup will make social distancing on the national scale nearly impossible.  In areas it isn't bad in yet - they will be lax on it.  In areas it's hard hit they will go more extreme.  The problem is without us working in unison this is going to be one very prolonged battle where we constantly export the virus back to places that recovered from it.  So on some level maybe he's right that the best option for the U.S. may be to just tough it out because the will isn't there for all states and counties and cities to work together and all make the necessary sacrifices on this.
> 
> It's almost as if we are in a real life prisoner's dilemma and aren't sticking to the smart play.




I think Canada is proof that a disparate nation can come together. The Canadian provinces do not like each other and the nation is barely held together. Yet on this issue, Canada is united. Not just in political parties but from province to province too. 

I prefer the trolley problem:



Spoiler


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> We are on pace to be at 1.2 million cases within at least 12 days, maybe 8 days.  (I don't think we can test that many).
> 
> In 2-3 weeks we are on pace for 10 million cases.  Assuming the 3% mortality rate estimate - that's 300,000 dead.




 My personal number is lower but my guesstimate was 9/11 numbers every 1-3 days. For several weeks.

 Vietnam war levels in a few weeks not over 10 years in the American heartland.


----------



## ad_hoc




----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> My personal number is lower but my guesstimate was 9/11 numbers every 1-3 days. For several weeks.
> 
> Vietnam war levels in a few weeks not over 10 years in the American heartland.




i no longer believe that we have the willpower to do what needs done to significantly slow the spread. So far the case increases are backing that up.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> i no longer believe that we have the willpower to do what needs done to significantly slow the spread. So far the case increases are backing that up.




 I got yelled at on another forum when I pointed this out. 

May have been a bit blunt bit there's 5 Anglo Saxon nation's, 1 is screwed, 1 might come through reasonably ok the other 3 are somewhere in the middle but I'm leaning towards slightly less screwed.

 I have hopes for Canada, the other 3 see what happens.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ad_hoc said:


> Canada has 4 000 cases and 39 deaths.
> 
> That is 107 cases per million and 1 death per million population.
> 
> And all of our politicians are united together among all levels of government with our doctors that this is very serious. Every address they make is serious and they constantly implore people to not leave their houses. Various levels of enforcement have now been authorized to that end and I believe they will become more heavily enforced as some people continue to flaunt the mandate to stay home.
> 
> I imagine this is probably how it is being handled in most other countries. Then we have America. I've watched a couple press conferences lately. Trump and his team talk as though they are through the worst part, they have treatments and cures on the way, and have all the medical equipment they need. They want to lift the lockdowns April 12th.
> 
> They currently have 259 cases per million and 4 deaths per million population. 1 in 500 people in New York state has a confirmed case of COVID 19.
> 
> The USA is going to be hit hardest because of their weak mandate to social distancing.
> 
> That hurts Canada too because Canadians watch a lot of American politics, so they're going to be hearing that it isn't a big deal. Journalists have asked our politicians (I believe it was the Deputy Prime Minister) about American's strategy and how she felt about it and her response was "we are choosing to follow the science". That was the most diplomatic way she could think of to respond.




Canadians, listen to an American: don’t listen to Americans!


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Canadians, listen to an American: don’t listen to Americans!




 I've linked some American friends to NZ health guidelines and what to do. 

 One lived in Colorado, she read Reuters and BBC. She didn't know about Italy. Asked her how blunt do you want me to be? Blunt was her response.


----------



## Ogre Mage

ad_hoc said:


> Then we have America. I've watched a couple press conferences lately. Trump and his team talk as though they are through the worst part, they have treatments and cures on the way, and have all the medical equipment they need. They want to lift the lockdowns April 12th.
> 
> They currently have 259 cases per million and 4 deaths per million population. 1 in 500 people in New York state has a confirmed case of COVID 19.
> 
> The USA is going to be hit hardest because of their weak mandate to social distancing.




Our federal leadership is anti-science and completely incompetent.

I live in Washington State where the initial U.S. outbreak happened.  Knock on wood, it looks like things here are improving.



> KIRKLAND, Wash. —The suburban hospital that handled the first onslaught of coronavirus patients weeks ago — a crush of seriously ill and dying nursing home residents that signaled the beginning of the national health crisis — is now offering cautious optimism to people across the United States who are searching for an end to the springtime nightmare: They believe they might have flattened the curve here.




In Kirkland, Washington the coronavirus outbreak appears to be leveling off


----------



## Hussar

Oofta said:


> /snip
> 
> Between 15-20% of the people that get sick will need hospitalization.  Hospitalization increases your chance of survival 10 fold.  Add in all the unknowns like 50% of the people in Iceland (where they _have_ done extensive testing) that have antibodies for the virus show no symptoms whatsoever and we don't know if people are immune after recovery.




Where did that 15-20% number come from?  That seem unbelievably high.  Considering the Chinese had 80k cases and certainly didn't hospitalize nearly 20000 people.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Where did that 15-20% number come from?  That seem unbelievably high.  Considering the Chinese had 80k cases and certainly didn't hospitalize nearly 20000 people.




 Chinese numbers are suspect.

 Liquid gold. Friend of a friend type deal.





 Been sold out last month. Not exactly a brand name but it does the job.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> Where did that 15-20% number come from?  That seem unbelievably high.  Considering the Chinese had 80k cases and certainly didn't hospitalize nearly 20000 people.



I’ve seen that number in some press releases from those fighting the bug, based on averaging the numbers from various countries  This article reports China hospitalized 15% of its cases, of which a third were in critical care.  Italy was the worst, with a reported hospitalization rate of @50%.  But Italy’s population demographics and late response were huge factors in that.








						What does the coronavirus mean for the U.S. health care system? Some simple math offers alarming answers
					

At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. As #Covid19 cases saturate nearly every state and county, health care workers would burn through the national stockpile of N95 masks in two days.




					www.statnews.com


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> My personal number is lower but my guesstimate was 9/11 numbers every 1-3 days. For several weeks.
> 
> Vietnam war levels in a few weeks not over 10 years in the American heartland.




Ok, why would you even go that far?

China, which, frankly, lags MASSIVELY behind the US in health care, and is far more densely populated, is already seeing its numbers start to slow down.  

Why would you think that the US would utterly fail to deal with this?  Since when has the US ever totally failed to deal with things?  When have you ever seen a complete breakdown in the US?  Again, you're just fear mongering.

Yup, 80000 cases in the US.  That's bad.  But, we're look at a country of 350 million people.  Perspective is very much needed here folks.  No, this is not the apocalypse.  We will get through this, just like we got through everything else that's been thrown at us.  You're saying that in a few weeks we're going to see 60 000 deaths?  in the US?  dude, you really, really need to lay off of whatever it is that you're smoking.  

Or, do you honestly believe that China was twenty times more effective than the largest economy in the world at dealing with a crisis?


----------



## Olrox17

Hussar said:


> Ok, why would you even go that far?
> 
> China, which, frankly, lags MASSIVELY behind the US in health care, and is far more densely populated, is already seeing its numbers start to slow down.
> 
> Why would you think that the US would utterly fail to deal with this?  Since when has the US ever totally failed to deal with things?  When have you ever seen a complete breakdown in the US?  Again, you're just fear mongering.
> 
> Yup, 80000 cases in the US.  That's bad.  But, we're look at a country of 350 million people.  Perspective is very much needed here folks.  No, this is not the apocalypse.  We will get through this, just like we got through everything else that's been thrown at us.  You're saying that in a few weeks we're going to see 60 000 deaths?  in the US?  dude, you really, really need to lay off of whatever it is that you're smoking.
> 
> Or, do you honestly believe that China was twenty times more effective than the largest economy in the world at dealing with a crisis?



You’ll deal with it if you, the American people, start dealing with it, instead of relying on blind, unfounded optimism.

“It’s gonna be fine coz we’re the best country evah” isn’t going to cut it. You'll have to make some sacrifices.


----------



## Hussar

Olrox17 said:


> You’ll deal with it if you, the American people, start dealing with it, instead of relying on blind, unfounded optimism.
> 
> “It’s gonna be fine coz we’re the best country evah” isn’t going to cut it. You'll have to make some sacrifices.




Oh, of course.  ((Just to be clear, I'm Canadian, living in Japan))

No one is saying do nothing.  But, claims that we're going to see 10's of thousands of dead in the next couple of weeks is just fear mongering at its worst.  If this virus was really that deadly, wouldn't you think that China would be having a somewhat larger problem?  Or Japan?  

Heck, our kids go back to school next week.  We did our due dilligence.  We stayed home for a month.  We closed down the country.  And, cases have been relatively mild and it's being handled pretty well.  

It's like the testing thing.  Testing doesn't really do anything.  Guess what?  This is a virus.  They can do exactly nothing for you if you test positive.  Zero.  Zilch.  There has never, ever been a cure for any virus.  What they can do is treat the pneumonia that develops from the virus - but, if you don't develop pneumonia, which most people don't, Covid-19 is not going to kill you.    

The problem in Italy was that they tested tons of people and then sent everyone who tested positive to the hospital, completely overwhelming their medical care and completely failing to triage the problem.  Because they panicked.  And, frankly, Italy has largely the same demographic profile as Japan - lots of very old people which meant that the virus was a lot more deadly.

It's a very, very complicated issue.  And it's going to take some time to resolve.  But, overblown cries that the sky is falling and we're all going to die is not helpful.  At all.


----------



## Olrox17

Hussar said:


> Oh, of course.  ((Just to be clear, I'm Canadian, living in Japan))
> 
> No one is saying do nothing.  But, claims that we're going to see 10's of thousands of dead in the next couple of weeks is just fear mongering at its worst.  If this virus was really that deadly, wouldn't you think that China would be having a somewhat larger problem?  Or Japan?
> 
> Heck, our kids go back to school next week.  We did our due dilligence.  We stayed home for a month.  We closed down the country.  And, cases have been relatively mild and it's being handled pretty well.
> 
> It's like the testing thing.  Testing doesn't really do anything.  Guess what?  This is a virus.  They can do exactly nothing for you if you test positive.  Zero.  Zilch.  There has never, ever been a cure for any virus.  What they can do is treat the pneumonia that develops from the virus - but, if you don't develop pneumonia, which most people don't, Covid-19 is not going to kill you.
> 
> The problem in Italy was that they tested tons of people and then sent everyone who tested positive to the hospital, completely overwhelming their medical care and completely failing to triage the problem.  Because they panicked.  And, frankly, Italy has largely the same demographic profile as Japan - lots of very old people which meant that the virus was a lot more deadly.
> 
> It's a very, very complicated issue.  And it's going to take some time to resolve.  But, overblown cries that the sky is falling and we're all going to die is not helpful.  At all.



Personally, I'm not sure the data on deaths provided by chinese authorities is entirely genuine, but that's beside the point.
You're right, panicking isn't helpful and should be avoided. Downplaying the crisis, however, could be extremely damaging and lead to massive loss of human lives.
Right now, the best attitude is to be stoic and disciplined, only listening to the certified experts and following their lead. If they tell to stay home, you stay home. If they tell there's no need to stock up on 6 months of supplies, you don't do that. It's kinda like a war, really.


----------



## Sadras

Zardnaar said:


> One lived in Colorado, she read Reuters and BBC. She didn't know about Italy.




I have an aunt and uncle in Atlanta. They didnt know about building no 7. I live in Cape Town. Sadly the news agencies these days are more about tweets, third-rate opinions and tabloid trivia than actually educating the public on what is happening. Chernobyl the lot of them!


----------



## GreyLord

Why worry about the US?

China has a Billion people.  They managed to subside it (from outward appearances) by extreme drastic measures (welding people inside their homes, people dying of starvation kept in homes, etc...etc...etc.).

They had over 80K cases.

The US only has 350 million in comparison.  Less than 1/3 of China.  The US now has more COVID than China did and it hasn't even gotten close to it's peak.  

I would think most nations at this point should ban any travel from the US, ban anything coming from the US, and isolate the US until they have had the plague go through it.  They are the hotspot right now and it does not seem contained.  Seems an easy way to get migration from COVID is to things come from the US to other nations.

This is a war, not against a nation, but against a disease.  It is a war I think we will win as a race (humans), but unless we treat the disease as the enemy, we are going to have more losses than victories in the beginning.  Right now I think many are still playing politics or economics rather than facing the common enemy we all have.

And that's the limit of what I'll say on that as it's not really why I made this thread.

On brighter concerns, did another D&D session today.  Made it a little further in the Dungeon.  It went a little better today though it still doesn't beat face to face.  

However, in these times of concern, we do what we must to support the community efforts.  I am having to accept their statements on what they rolled at face value.  I've heard of dice rolling apps for phones, I'm thinking of maybe having  them all download those so that they roll them then hold up the results to the screen so I can validate the rolls.  They rolled VERY WELL today.  It's not that I don't trust them, having played with them for a while...but those were some VERY LUCKY rolls today.  It was typical to do maximum damage in combat...which if it happens over 50% of the time seems rather...odd.  Could happen...but doesn't seem likely.


----------



## Hussar

Olrox17 said:


> /snip
> It's kinda like a war, really.




I dunno.  Maybe I'm just a little more blase because this isn't exactly my first rodeo.  I was here for SARS.  I was here for MERS.  Bird flu.  Swine flu.  Couple of others as well.

Still here.  

Keeping calm, do your due dilligence and everything will be fine.  Stories of welding people in their homes, well, if you're getting your news from The Sun, perhaps changing the channel might be a better notion.


----------



## briggart

Hussar said:


> The problem in Italy was that they tested tons of people and then sent everyone who tested positive to the hospital, completely overwhelming their medical care and completely failing to triage the problem.  Because they panicked.  And, frankly, Italy has largely the same demographic profile as Japan - lots of very old people which meant that the virus was a lot more deadly.
> 
> It's a very, very complicated issue.  And it's going to take some time to resolve.  But, overblown cries that the sky is falling and we're all going to die is not helpful.  At all.




Not sure where you got that, but Italy healthcare system being overwhelmed had nothing to do with testing. Italy switched to testing only symptomatic people on 28/02, at that time we had about 800-900 confirmed cases and ~20 death, which is something the healthcare system could manage. I'm not saying it was business as usual, but the system was able to hold much more than that. The stated reason why we switched testing policy was to follow WHO guidelines.

The comparison with Japan is interesting. Demographics is very similar, but Japan seems to be faring better than pretty much all European countries, so it suggests that the difference is not given by the Italian healthcare having reached saturation point, but something else specific to Japan.


----------



## Oofta

Hussar said:


> Where did that 15-20% number come from?  That seem unbelievably high.  Considering the Chinese had 80k cases and certainly didn't hospitalize nearly 20000 people.



The governor of the state who got it from specialists and consultants.  AKA professionals whose job it is to figure out this kind of thing.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Ok, why would you even go that far?
> 
> China, which, frankly, lags MASSIVELY behind the US in health care, and is far more densely populated, is already seeing its numbers start to slow down.
> 
> Why would you think that the US would utterly fail to deal with this?  Since when has the US ever totally failed to deal with things?  When have you ever seen a complete breakdown in the US?  Again, you're just fear mongering.
> 
> Yup, 80000 cases in the US.  That's bad.  But, we're look at a country of 350 million people.  Perspective is very much needed here folks.  No, this is not the apocalypse.  We will get through this, just like we got through everything else that's been thrown at us.  You're saying that in a few weeks we're going to see 60 000 deaths?  in the US?  dude, you really, really need to lay off of whatever it is that you're smoking.
> 
> Or, do you honestly believe that China was twenty times more effective than the largest economy in the world at dealing with a crisis?




 I used Italy as a base line, USA is 5 times bigger and had dealt with it even worse than Italy. 

 China's numbers may be suspect but they at least did something USA hasn't even done that.

 Italy also has a better health system in terms of capacity and had help from the EU.

 So yeah not looking good. I don't mind if I get proved wrong.

 The dying has barely started in New York. Boris Johnson has it.


----------



## NotAYakk

Hussar said:


> Oh, of course.  ((Just to be clear, I'm Canadian, living in Japan))
> 
> No one is saying do nothing.  But, claims that we're going to see 10's of thousands of dead in the next couple of weeks is just fear mongering at its worst.  If this virus was really that deadly, wouldn't you think that China would be having a somewhat larger problem?  Or Japan?



(a) they actually executed social distancing.  (b) China did intense connection sharing, (c) China did a wartime level effort to contain it.

Japan?  They are using masks everywhere and not phyiscally greeting and lots of hand sanitizer, and shutdowns at hot spots.  That is lowering their exponential curve.

Because deaths and hospitalizations are delayed by 1-3 weeks from the point of changing habits, having a lower background growth rate makes responding with measures more effective.

In NYC, the growth rate of deaths is 33% per day.  With a 20 day delay between infection and death, that means that when 10 people die, there are already 3000 people infected who will die in the next month, because 1.33^20 is 300.

If your background rate of spread is 10% instead of 33%, 10 deaths instead grows to 1.1^20 or 67 over the next 20 days *with no new infections*.  So in introduce measures, starve the outbreak, and over the next month deaths are moderate.

In the case of NYC, it is 300 deaths, and it was growing 33% per day.  So 10,000s of deaths is sadly plausible.  Even if you stopped every new infection.


> Heck, our kids go back to school next week.  We did our due dilligence.  We stayed home for a month.  We closed down the country.  And, cases have been relatively mild and it's being handled pretty well.



Understand that a background 10% growth rate means


> It's like the testing thing.  Testing doesn't really do anything.  Guess what?  This is a virus.  They can do exactly nothing for you if you test positive.  Zero.  Zilch.  There has never, ever been a cure for any virus.  What they can do is treat the pneumonia that develops from the virus - but, if you don't develop pneumonia, which most people don't, Covid-19 is not going to kill you.



They can detect it spreading and strange it of hosts.


> The problem in Italy was that they tested tons of people and then sent everyone who tested positive to the hospital



This is a lie.


> , completely overwhelming their medical care and completely failing to triage the problem.



1000s of people are dead.  What garbage are you talking about.


> Because they panicked.  And, frankly, Italy has largely the same demographic profile as Japan - lots of very old people which meant that the virus was a lot more deadly.



This kind of messages are killing people.

Stop killing people.


----------



## seebs

Hussar said:


> It's like the testing thing.  Testing doesn't really do anything.  Guess what?  This is a virus.  They can do exactly nothing for you if you test positive.  Zero.  Zilch.  There has never, ever been a cure for any virus.  What they can do is treat the pneumonia that develops from the virus - but, if you don't develop pneumonia, which most people don't, Covid-19 is not going to kill you.




This is wrong in several respects. There aren't exactly cures for most viruses, although there's a known treatment that cures HIV now, it's just not available to most people because it relies on genetics. (Bone marrow transplants from a compatible donor who's immune.) But there's lots of antiviral drugs of various sorts, and you can use antibodies. But most importantly, _you can tell people they need to stay quarantined_, which reduces the spread of the virus, and gives you some idea how much danger you're in.

(It's also a lot more complicated than just "pneumonia", there's also heart problems and such to consider.)



> The problem in Italy was that they tested tons of people and then sent everyone who tested positive to the hospital, completely overwhelming their medical care and completely failing to triage the problem.  Because they panicked.  And, frankly, Italy has largely the same demographic profile as Japan - lots of very old people which meant that the virus was a lot more deadly.




The lack of triage isn't so much the issue as the lack of resources to treat _even just the people who need treatment_, because the number of people who need treatment got very large very fast because they weren't doing anything to slow down the spread.


----------



## FrogReaver

Hussar said:


> Ok, why would you even go that far?
> 
> China, which, frankly, lags MASSIVELY behind the US in health care, and is far more densely populated, is already seeing its numbers start to slow down.
> 
> Why would you think that the US would utterly fail to deal with this?  Since when has the US ever totally failed to deal with things?  When have you ever seen a complete breakdown in the US?  Again, you're just fear mongering.
> 
> Yup, 80000 cases in the US.  That's bad.  But, we're look at a country of 350 million people.  Perspective is very much needed here folks.  No, this is not the apocalypse.  We will get through this, just like we got through everything else that's been thrown at us.  You're saying that in a few weeks we're going to see 60 000 deaths?  in the US?  dude, you really, really need to lay off of whatever it is that you're smoking.
> 
> Or, do you honestly believe that China was twenty times more effective than the largest economy in the world at dealing with a crisis?





Yes.  China was more effective because they locked down 60,000,000 people.


----------



## FrogReaver

Hussar said:


> I dunno.  Maybe I'm just a little more blase because this isn't exactly my first rodeo.  I was here for SARS.  I was here for MERS.  Bird flu.  Swine flu.  Couple of others as well.
> 
> Still here.
> 
> Keeping calm, do your due dilligence and everything will be fine.  Stories of welding people in their homes, well, if you're getting your news from The Sun, perhaps changing the channel might be a better notion.



We bnever defected 500,000 cases of any of those worldwide. Best we did was estimate some of those had alot of worldwide cases after the fact.  We weren’t still growing in cases when those numbers came out.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Hussar said:


> Why would you think that the US would utterly fail to deal with this?  Since when has the US ever totally failed to deal with things?  When have you ever seen a complete breakdown in the US?  Again, you're just fear mongering.
> 
> Yup, 80000 cases in the US.  That's bad.  But, we're look at a country of 350 million people.  Perspective is very much needed here folks.  No, this is not the apocalypse.  We will get through this, just like we got through everything else that's been thrown at us.  You're saying that in a few weeks we're going to see 60 000 deaths?  in the US?  dude, you really, really need to lay off of whatever it is that you're smoking.




Please don't insult someone's intelligence and rationale when it's you who is completely ignoring the actual facts.

Why would the US fail?  Because we _ARE _failing.  Between a large % who thinks they can keep doing what they do everyday and not taking this seriously, and complete incompetent leadership at the top on a criminal level of negligence (this isn't political, because no other person, republican or democrat, would have been so incompetent as Trump_ as an individual person _is showing.)  Between not doing anything for months, refusing tests, blaming everyone else, giving misinformation, outright lying, and telling governors that if they want help, they have to be nice to him, it's pretty clear the US is set up for failure here.

But even outside of that, look at the actual numbers, and the data we do have. It's not hard.  People have been linking to it numerous times in this thread.  Telling people they must be high just because they're looking at actual data is bad form.  


This is a photo from Austin a couple days ago.  It's attitudes like yours that cause scenarios like this


----------



## Todd Roybark

Hussar said:


> Heck, our kids go back to school next week




My spouse is a teacher in the Los Angeles Unified School District.  Early, Thursday morning a parent of one of the children in her school died.  The parent, had exhibited Covid 19 symptoms, and around midnight started to struggle breathing.  The parent expired before paramedics arrived.

To be fair, cause of death is unknown.  To be fair, _lack of testing is also the problem_.
Testing allows a tailored response, instead of blunt tools, such as shelter in place.

The coroners office will run a test, results in about a week.  Confirmed Covid 19 related deaths, lag _significantly_ from real time.   This is not panic, this is _reason_.

Testing Capacity is very limited in the USA.  National emergency protocols, _still have not been utilized fully_.

Japan as an island, has certain containment advantages.

The USA, _used_ to have strategic reserves of PPE and Supplies as part of it’s nuclear response.
Those stockpiles were eliminated in favor of a Big Box Store theory of _Inventory just in time_.

In a disaster, if you want to buy a generator at the last moment, you are not just _competing_ with your fellow residents, you are also competing with federal agencies, like FEMA.

I have seen this _happen_, across the country working natural disasters for a Fortune 500 American Insurance Company.

I doubt seriously, Japan runs emergency systems like this.  One of my best friends, teaches for N.U.S. Yale in Singapore, the ‘second wave’ of infections is happening, and overall Singapore’s response was vastly more proactive and prepared than the USA.

Be Safe,  Be Reasonable....and sometimes being _alarmed_ is entirely sound.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Todd Roybark said:


> The USA, _used_ to have strategic reserves of PPE and Supplies as part of it’s nuclear response.
> Those stockpiles were eliminated in favor of a Big Box Store theory of _Inventory just in time_.
> 
> In a disaster, if you want to buy a generator at the last moment, you are not just _competing_ with your fellow residents, you are also competing with federal agencies, like FEMA.




Yeah, last week our governor, Kate Brown, shot back at Trump when he said that the governors should be getting the supplies themselves, "We can't, because all of the supplies were taken by the feds!"

And a few days ago Andrew Cuomo had said in a press conference that it's not fair because he's having to outbid other governors for the same supplies, so that's a) driving up costs of the supplies because they are being bid on like an auction, and b) poorer states are just screwed.


----------



## ad_hoc

GreyLord said:


> I would think most nations at this point should ban any travel from the US, ban anything coming from the US, and isolate the US until they have had the plague go through it.  They are the hotspot right now and it does not seem contained.  Seems an easy way to get migration from COVID is to things come from the US to other nations.




Unfortunately Canada relies on the USA too much to do that.


----------



## Umbran

*Mod Note:*

Folks, I know what I am about to say will make some things very hard.  But, this thread really needs to stay apolitical.  I know that we cannot really discuss this matter without discussing government action, but we need to be _extremely thoughtful_ in how we do that.

"Trump is incompetent," is not acceptable.  

"The administration's response has not been sufficient to curb spread of the disease, and has run contrary to expert positions on the matter," is demonstrably factually correct, and does not hinge on the person in question, or what party they are part of, and so is far more likely to pass muster.

Also, at this point this thread has diddly to do with gaming.  Moving it to Off-Topic.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> Oh, of course.  ((Just to be clear, I'm Canadian, living in Japan))
> 
> No one is saying do nothing.  But, claims that we're going to see 10's of thousands of dead in the next couple of weeks is just fear mongering at its worst.  If this virus was really that deadly, wouldn't you think that China would be having a somewhat larger problem?  Or Japan?
> 
> Heck, our kids go back to school next week.  We did our due dilligence.  We stayed home for a month.  We closed down the country.  And, cases have been relatively mild and it's being handled pretty well.
> 
> It's like the testing thing.  Testing doesn't really do anything.  Guess what?  This is a virus.  They can do exactly nothing for you if you test positive.  Zero.  Zilch.  There has never, ever been a cure for any virus.  What they can do is treat the pneumonia that develops from the virus - but, if you don't develop pneumonia, which most people don't, Covid-19 is not going to kill you.
> 
> The problem in Italy was that they tested tons of people and then sent everyone who tested positive to the hospital, completely overwhelming their medical care and completely failing to triage the problem.  Because they panicked.  And, frankly, Italy has largely the same demographic profile as Japan - lots of very old people which meant that the virus was a lot more deadly.
> 
> It's a very, very complicated issue.  And it's going to take some time to resolve.  But, overblown cries that the sky is falling and we're all going to die is not helpful.  At all.



First of all, there are 2 viruses that have been eliminated, smallpox and rinderpest.  There’s maybe a half dozen more on the verge.

Part of the reason epidemiologists and other healthcare professionals are so concerned about Covid-19 is that it is extremely contagious.  Here’s a professor explaining the math of its virulence:

With some experts currently predicting as much as 1/4 of the world’s population will contract Covid-19 in this first of several expected outbreaks, the current average estimated global fatality rate of 1% for Covid-19 translates into more than 23m deaths.  

Since we have no currently effective antiviral treatments, vaccines, and no known herd immunity*, social distancing and quarantines are our only effective weapons.  And in order to use those weapons effectively, we need to test, test, test.


* a recent study indicates that Covid-19 may have originated earlier than we suspect, possibly in a less dangerous form or disguised by other afflictions.


----------



## FrogReaver

Sacrosanct said:


> Yes,  a bit of perspective is more helpful.  You're completely disregarding how the growth is still exponential.   The total number of deaths is not as important as how fast those deaths are happening.  And since we know it takes 2 weeks or longer from getting positive to death, we're still two weeks behind as far as data goes in that regard.  2 weeks ago, there were only 27 deaths in the US with 1000 identified positive.




im not sure deaths are 2 weeks behind. I imagine most people get tested after having the thing 1-2 weeks already.  I’m figuring deaths are 7-10 days behind currently Confirmed cases on average (and possibly less)


----------



## Sacrosanct

2 days ago the US had 1000 deaths.  Now it's 1500.  With the graph continuing to exponentially grow.  So it's entirely reasonable that we can be looking at tens of thousands of deaths (and hundreds of thousands of long term effects) before this is over.  That's not hyperbole or overreaction.


----------



## Zardnaar

Italy has hit 900 a day.

 USA is 5 the new bigger and has done even less than Italy and to contain it. 

 Ad I said 9/11 every 1-3 days depending on how bad it gets.

 If they match Italy per capita it's roughly 1.5 9/11s every day. 

 On the plus side a few factors are different. 

 USA is at around 300/day and it's accelerating so go figure.


----------



## FrogReaver

Sacrosanct said:


> 2 days ago the US had 1000 deaths.  Now it's 1500.  With the graph continuing to exponentially grow.  So it's entirely reasonable that we can be looking at tens of thousands of deaths (and hundreds of thousands of long term effects) before this is over.  That's not hyperbole or overreaction.




I’m thinking best case at this point is 100,000+ u.s deaths. Unless something drastic changes we are 2-3 weeks from having enough cases to see that magnitude of deaths.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> I’m thinking best case at this point is 100,000+ u.s deaths. Unless something drastic changes we are 2-3 weeks from having enough cases to see that magnitude of deaths.




 That number is starting to look plausible. 

 I was figuring Vietnam War (55k) level.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

From the front lines:

if you have any medical lingo in your vocab, you know that’s some horror show stuff he’s talking about.


----------



## NotAYakk

If the USA pulls out of this with only 100k dead it is a victory, you won.

1 million dead is a draw.

10 million dead before Christmas is what happens if you lose this war.

This isn't hyperbole.  This is people who professionally model epidemics doing their work in the US population.

~1 million dead is if you (a) don't develop better treatment, (b) never have hospitals overrun because you scale your capacity, (c) reach herd immunity over the year, and (d) don't get lucky with a miracle (vaccine faster than anyone thinks possible, mild strain that spreads faster and grants immunity, treatment that stops it in its tracks).

~10 million dead is what happens if you hospitals can't keep up.

And for every dead person, many people with lifetime lung capacity damage.

Deaths grow at 33% daily without social distancing.  1.33^20 is 300; 1.33^30 is 5000.

The death curve changes about *20 days* after you change behavior.

So an area with 10 deaths and no social distancing has already "booked" *3000 deaths*, give or take.

Look at when Italy started serious measures.  They started on 21 February 2020 with 21 deaths.

16 days later, on Sunday 8 March 2020 they locked down the North with 366 deaths.  (366/21)^(1/16) is 1.19, or 19% growth rate per day.

Then on the 9th the entire country.

From the 8th to the 15th deaths rose to 1809, or 25.6% per day.
From the 15th to the 22nd deaths rose to 5476, or 17.1% per day.

Now the problem is by this point, too many people where dying for them to get to hospital and be tested before they die.









						Uncounted among coronavirus victims, deaths sweep through Italy's nursing homes
					

As the official death toll from Italy's coronavirus outbreak passes 2,500, a silent surge in fatalities in nursing homes, where dozens of patients a day are dying untested for the virus, suggests the real total may be higher.




					www.reuters.com
				




One town has 164 deaths.  31 attributed to coronovirus.  56 died in the same period last year.  So 77 *excess deaths* which could be Covid-19 deaths who couldn't get to hospital before they died, or 350% of the actual official deaths.

It is plausible that Italy is undercounting their deaths by 3x, and that Covid-19 has already killed 25,000 despite a national lockdown.  So possibly there are 2000 people per day dying, from 20 total just over a month ago.

At this point we are approaching 20 days after national lockdown.  This should drop the growth rate closer to 10%, so 2000 per day.  Then you hope to strangle the virus and bend the curve down, but still you end up with 1000s of deaths per day.

At 60 million people, if 1% die that is 600,000.  You can keep up 3000 deaths/day for 200 days and not run out of fuel for this fire.  And Italy death rates are higher due to health care system overload.

#stayhome

You be asymptomatic.  Then you just spread it to people who die.

You could get a mild case, and have your lung capacity reduced by 10% for the rest of your life.

You could get a moderate case, and be hospitalized in overloaded facilities.

You could even get a serious case that you could live through with treatement.  And you get treatment, because you are young and healthy.  But every person who gets treatment is soon going to be someone else who they let die.

There are lots of "reasons" people make up why Italy is different than the USA or wherever it is you are living.  But we are seeing steeper death curves in the USA than we saw in Italy in uncontrolled epidemics -- 33% instead of 20% deaths/day.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Dannyalcatraz said:


> From the front lines:
> 
> if you have any medical lingo in your vocab, you know that’s some horror show stuff he’s talking about.




Anytime you hear "acute failure" from a medical professional, you better pay attention.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mixed news:








						8 strains of the coronavirus are circling the globe. Here's what clues they're giving scientists.
					

Scientists sequenced the genomes of eight coronavirus strains circling the globe providing hints about the effectiveness of efforts to halt the virus.




					www.yahoo.com
				




There are currently 8 known strains of Covid-19 out there.  But because it mutates at a fraction of the rate of seasonal influenza AND is already so good at infecting humans, they do not expect to see a more lethal strain evolve.

They also repeated the 15% hospitalization and 1% death rates.


----------



## Umbran

For those who like data, there are charts:

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research

Edit to add - folks may also find this useful









						Infographic: Where COVID Tallies Are Highest Relative to Population
					

This chart shows the countries with the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per one million population.




					www.statista.com


----------



## Ogre Mage

Todd Roybark said:


> To be fair, _lack of testing is also the problem_.  Testing allows a tailored response, instead of blunt tools, such as shelter in place.
> 
> The coroners office will run a test, results in about a week.  Confirmed Covid 19 related deaths, lag _significantly_ from real time.   This is not panic, this is _reason_.
> 
> Testing Capacity is very limited in the USA.  National emergency protocols, _still have not been utilized fully_..




The lack of testing during the early stages was the original sin of the U.S. response.  The U.S. federal government refused to use the WHO covid test and the CDC put out a defective test.  Then there were delays in getting a working test, leaving individual states scrambling to create their own test.  In the meantime, the virus spread unchecked throughout February 2020.

Had we done more extensive testing in February, the infected could have been isolated and we would have had a better handle on containment.  The situation was made worse by the so-called President's statements like "we have it totally under control," "it will disappear," and that criticism about the lack of response was "a hoax."


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> For those who like data, there are charts:
> 
> Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research
> 
> Edit to add - folks may also find this useful
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Infographic: Where COVID Tallies Are Highest Relative to Population
> 
> 
> This chart shows the countries with the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per one million population.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 120257




 Right now we're below China, 0 deaths. 

That will likely  change today or tomorrow in terms of numbers.


----------



## CleverNickName

Hussar said:


> No one is saying do nothing.  But, claims that we're going to see 10's of thousands of dead in the next couple of weeks is just fear mongering at its worst.



Well, the stats as of today are 27,189 dead, an increase of more than 20,000 in the last two weeks (Source).  That is already "tens of thousands dead in a couple of weeks."

It isn't fear-mongering, it is _already happening._


----------



## ad_hoc

CleverNickName said:


> Well, the stats as of today are 27,189 dead, an increase of more than 20,000 in the last two weeks (Source).  That is already "tens of thousands dead in a couple of weeks."
> 
> It isn't fear-mongering, it is _already happening._




An even more grim statistic:

March 12th there were 353 deaths.
March 26th there were 2 791 deaths.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> An even more grim statistic:
> 
> March 12th there were 353 deaths.
> March 26th there were 2 791 deaths.




As I said. 9/11 every 1-3 days.


----------



## Hussar

CleverNickName said:


> Well, the stats as of today are 27,189 dead, an increase of more than 20,000 in the last two weeks (Source).  That is already "tens of thousands dead in a couple of weeks."
> 
> It isn't fear-mongering, it is _already happening._




Hang on.  That's 27 189 deaths WORLDWIDE.  

I was responding to the notion that we're going to have several times that in the US alone.

Apparently, the US is going to fail so utterly in dealing with the crisis that they will surpass the entire world in deaths by several times.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> As I said. 9/11 every 1-3 days.




Good grief.  Since when did 9/11 become a metric for deaths?  That's not sensationalism and playing into people's fears AT ALL.  Nope.  Not at all.  Sheesh.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Good grief.  Since when did 9/11 become a metric for deaths?  That's not sensationalism and playing into people's fears AT ALL.  Nope.  Not at all.  Sheesh.




 That's the lower number. 

 Italy hit 900 today. USA has done less than Italy. 

 They've started putting two people on ventilators in New York. 

 We're in lockdown here, the military will be in the streets announcement today. 

 We've 400 cases now, 2 in ICU and 0 deaths. They're trying to keep that number as low as possible. 

 Main reason is to not overload the health system. USA is at that point right now.


----------



## Lem23

IHME | COVID-19 Projections
					

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.




					covid19.healthdata.org
				




80k US deaths is the midrange, you can adjust to see individual states too.

So yes, quite a few more times the current death total in the U.S. alone.

You can dismiss that as sensationalism if you like,  but you might do better to educate yourself than do that.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Lem23 said:


> IHME | COVID-19 Projections
> 
> 
> Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> covid19.healthdata.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 80k US deaths is the midrange, you can adjust to see individual states too.
> 
> So yes, quite a few more times recurrent death total in the U.S. alone.
> 
> You can dismiss that as sensationalism if you like,  but you might do better to educate yourself than do that.



Interesting site, thanks for linking it.
To me, the most distressing thing about those projections? From that site:

_"The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures."_​​From what I can tell, there are still way too many US states and localities that haven't yet seriously _started_ social-distancing and other measures, much less a _continuation_ of those measures.


----------



## Lem23

Yes, if you look state by state it gives relevant info and dates on various measures, when they're slated to be lifted, etc.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Theo R Cwithin said:


> From what I can tell, there are still way too many US states and localities that haven't yet seriously _started_ social-distancing and other measures, much less a _continuation_ of those measures.



Unfortunately, this is a fact.


----------



## NotAYakk

Hussar said:


> Hang on.  That's 27 189 deaths WORLDWIDE.
> 
> I was responding to the notion that we're going to have several times that in the US alone.
> 
> Apparently, the US is going to fail so utterly in dealing with the crisis that they will surpass the entire world in deaths by several times.



Yes, it is likely to.

This is the early parts of a pandemic.

The reason people are panicing is because they have read what epidemiologists have predicted.  Because we can see what happened in China, in Italy, and SK.  Because we understand exponents.

If _any_ of those is true about you, you should be terrified.

Terror is a logical, rational response to the most dangerous epidemic in 100 years.

Terror doesn't mean paralysis.  As many have pointed out, there are ways to beat this thing.  But they are hard and require sacrifice.

Italy is an example of what can happen anywhere if you fail to respond soon enough; on the order of 1000s deaths/day.  If you don't respond st all, it doesn't stop at 1000s.

I get that the media has regularly yelled about things as if they where dangerous and lied about it.  But this isn't shark week.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> Hang on.  That's 27 189 deaths WORLDWIDE.
> 
> I was responding to the notion that we're going to have several times that in the US alone.
> 
> Apparently, the US is going to fail so utterly in dealing with the crisis that they will surpass the entire world in deaths by several times.



Yup.  Even before the actions & inactions of officials who didn’t grasp the seriousness of the situation and bungled our response, epidemiologists pointed at the USA as being particularly vulnerable due to certain characteristics of our healthcare system...and society.

And its not just us.

Indonesia, the world’s 4th most populous nation (@250m people) _just started testing this month._  And it‘s not like they have a top-notch healthcare system.

Several African nations are at similar risk as Indonesia, not just because of their relative lack of resources, but because their systems were already being taxed by outbreaks of Lassa Fever and other serious disease outbreaks.

IOW, in all probability, the worst is yet to come.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yup.  Even before the actions & inactions of officials who didn’t grasp the seriousness of the situation and bungled our response, epidemiologists pointed at the USA as being particularly vulnerable due to certain characteristics of our healthcare system...and society.
> 
> And its not just us.
> 
> Indonesia, the world’s 4th most populous nation (@250m people) _just started testing this month._  And it‘s not like they have a top-notch healthcare system.
> 
> Several African nations are at similar risk as Indonesia, not just because of their relative lack of resources, but because their systems were already being taxed by outbreaks of Lassa Fever and other serious disease outbreaks.
> 
> IOW, in all probability, the worst is yet to come.




 My list of countries to watch include Mexico and Brazil.


----------



## Lem23

Despite their idiot fascist leader, Brazil might actually come through relatively safely; the regional governors are ignoring him and calling for fairly strict measures in the main, and the street gangs are conducting curfews in their areas. It comes to something when hardcore street gangs are taking this thing more seriously than the government of the country.


----------



## CleverNickName

Hussar said:


> Hang on.  That's 27 189 deaths WORLDWIDE.
> 
> I was responding to the notion that we're going to have several times that in the US alone.



I'll check back in two weeks and see if this was all just hype.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Lem23 said:


> Despite their idiot fascist leader...



Mod Note: we already had a general warning when a different county’s leader was lambasted in violation of ENWorld’s ToS.  Realize, it doesn’t matter which country’s leader is getting skewered.  No political ad hominems, please.


----------



## Ogre Mage

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Health Secretary have tested positive for coronavirus.

Johnson tests positive for coronavirus


----------



## FrogReaver

U.S population 327 million

Current Cases 104,126

We are *13 doubling periods* till the entire U.S. population would be infected.

Current doubling period appears to be 2-3 days in the U.S.

Doubling period will slow as more and more become infected and/or if more draconian stay at home measures are taken.  Unsure how to model this.

Bottom line - we aren't many weeks away till a significant % of our population has the virus.


----------



## NotAYakk

CleverNickName said:


> I'll check back in two weeks and see if this was all just hype.



Time travel back two weeks and see if it would be all hype then.

On Mar 14 there where 75k cases outside china.  Today there are more than 100k cases in the USA.

It sure seems plausible that in 2 weeks, death counts in the USA will be similar to death counts worldwide, outside of china, today, plus 33%ish.

As a ballpark number.  So 27k-3k, plus 33% is a plausible 32,000 dead in the USA.  Now this is just a plausible one; my point is going from 75k diagnosed cases to 25k dead in 2 weeks is *typical*.


----------



## CleverNickName

NotAYakk said:


> As a ballpark number.  So 27k-3k, plus 33% is a plausible 32,000 dead in the USA.  Now this is just a plausible one; my point is going from 75k diagnosed cases to 25k dead in 2 weeks is *typical*.



I know, I was being facetious.


----------



## Sadras

Zardnaar said:


> My list of countries to watch include Mexico and Brazil.




I'd put South Africa on that list too. We have seen a huge increase in infections in just a few days - despite early measures taken by the president we did not have the necessary testing kits. A sizeable part of our population is uneducated, has poor housing facilities and is lacking in many basic amenities due to our past.  Now couple that with ignorance and you have a recipe for disaster.

We don't have nearly the financial stability that Italy or Spain have so we are bleeped.
A voice note from the head of the Virology at one of the hospitals here who have been in constant communication with Italy and Switzerland said we are likely to see our peak by end April beginning May with the full force hitting up to August.

She also said that once people will require ventilators (i.e. develop respertory symptoms) they wont be able to be taken off as it creates irreversible lung damage which means they cannot be taken off them - they technically need lung transplants to recover. So they will be refusing people over the age of 65 as it just won't be worth it. There's just not enough ventilators.
The really ill some 15% will not be able to be catered to - which will rise the mortality rate particularly if this spreads to the entire population.

Italy has had around 50 doctors die and over 6,000 medical staff infected.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sadras said:


> I'd put South Africa on that list too. We have seen a huge increase in infections in just a few days - despite early measures taken by the president but we did not have the necessary testing kits. A sizeable part of our population is uneducated, has poor housing facilities and is lacking in many basic amenities due to our past.  Now couple that with ignorance and you have a recipe for disaster.
> 
> We don't have nearly the financial stability that Italy or Spain have so we are bleeped.
> A voice note from the head of the Virology at one of the hospitals here who have been in constant communication with Italy and Switzerland said we are likely to see our peak by end April beginning May with the full force hitting up to August.
> 
> She also said that once people will require ventilators (i.e. develop respirotary symptoms) they wont be able to be taken off as it creates irreversible lung damage* which means they cannot be taken off them - they technically need lung transplants to recover. So they will be refusing people over the age of 65 as it just won't be worth it. There's just not enough ventilators.
> The really ill some 15% will not be able to be catered to - which will rise the mortality rate particularly if this spreads to the entire population.
> 
> Italy has had around 50 doctors die and over 6,000 medical staff infected.
> 
> *EDIT*
> * Italian doctors have confirmed with her they do not get a patient on a ventilator off a ventilator because they have experienced patients get a massive systemic ARDS response and it institutes an immediate pulmonary fibrosis which means irreversible lung damage. A lot of this information was not released by China but only saw the light of day once it hit Europe. She also mentioned that the thinking within the medical community is this virus likely originated in China earlier than November-December 2019.




Reality is kicking in here. We're in bubble's. Each bubble is supposed to self isolate which isn't always possible.

My wife works for a freight company that counts as essential. Good news us we can get stuff the general population can't.






Hand sanitizer. Downside is she is still exposed and one if her workmates his wife works in the hospital.

We're not 100% sure about job security.

  Still we're lucky compared to a lot.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Apparently, the US is going to fail so utterly in dealing with the crisis that they will surpass the entire world in deaths by several times.




As of March 26th, the average of expert opinions (from a weekly survey of infectious disease researchers from institutions around the United States) was that covid-19 would cause almost a quarter of a million deaths in the USA in 2020.  And, by the same measure, hospitalizations are apt to peak in May.  This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

There is a large uncertainty on these estimates, of course.  But most of that uncertainty is about how high the number will go, not how low it will be.









						Experts Say The Coronavirus Outlook Has Worsened, But The Trajectory Is Still Unclear
					

Graphics by Anna Wiederkehr The extent of the COVID-19 crisis is no more certain this week than it was last. This is our second week following a weekly survey o…




					fivethirtyeight.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hopefully, whatever lessons we learn from this pandemic in the next couple years will not be forgotten by 2070.


----------



## FrogReaver

Cat in Belgium first known to test positive for coronavirus: report

Someone the other day was saying pets couldn't get/spread it.  Looks like that may not necessarily be the case.


----------



## LuisCarlos17f

I am Spanish and I live in a region where the epidemic is slower, but I worry really because we have got the worst goverment for this health crisis. Sometimes there are supects they really want to terminate. My level of English isn't enough good to explain all the details, but there are going official reports against the president Pedro Sanchez for criminal negligence. This guy is going to the trials to be judged. 

I am very worried, but also furious.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> Someone the other day was saying pets couldn't get/spread it.  Looks like that may not necessarily be the case.




"Someone" was me.

640,000 cases in humans worldwide.  _ONE_ cat.  _ONE_ dog.  And the dog was not shedding virus at levels in which they could reasonably infect a human being.

So, I think my prior statement still stands.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> "Someone" was me.
> 
> 640,000 cases in humans worldwide.  _ONE_ cat.  _ONE_ dog.  And the dog was not shedding virus at levels in which they could reasonably infect a human being.
> 
> So, I think my prior statement still stands.




You should really reevaluate your beliefs in light on new evidence.


----------



## Morrus

FrogReaver said:


> Cat in Belgium first known to test positive for coronavirus: report
> 
> Someone the other day was saying pets couldn't get/spread it.  Looks like that may not necessarily be the case.



I'm not sure how seriously I can take a science reporter whose first line is "A cat in Belgian".


----------



## FrogReaver

Morrus said:


> I'm not sure how seriously I can take a science reporter whose first line is "A cat in Belgian".




I'll be one of the happiest if it's wrong as wife won't panic on me about her pets.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

FrogReaver said:


> I'll be one of the happiest if it's wrong as wife won't panic on me about her pets.




I tried to find anything that corroborated it, and the only thing I could find is that there's an illness called *Feline Coronavirus* - that is a cat illness and has nothing *at all* to do with COVID19.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> You should really reevaluate your beliefs in light on new evidence.




This evidence says to me that the odds of other household pets getting it is _astronomically small_.  And I mean that kind of literally, being a physicist.  This is the opinion of the American Veterinary Medicine Association, who are constantly watching the situation as it develops, because it is their job, and their expertise.

Again, 640,000 humans diagnosed - but _only one cat and one dog_.  Hundreds of thousands of people, but effectively none of their companion animals are coming down with it.  That's a rate of transference below any level of risk you should be concerned about.  It might as well be zero.

Edit:  Make that two dogs - both in Hong Kong.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> This evidence says to me that the odds of other household pets getting it is _astronomically small_.  And I mean that kind of literally, being a physicist.  This is the opinion of the American Veterinary Medicine Association, who are constantly watching the situation as it develops, because it is their job, and their expertise.
> 
> Again, 640,000 humans diagnosed - but _only one cat and one dog_.  Hundreds of thousands of people, but effectively none of their companion animals are coming down with it.  That's a rate of transference below any level of risk you should be concerned about.  It might as well be zero.




We've been told to include our pets in self isolation. Not because they can get it but because they can transfer it via their fur.

Our delightful little fuzzball is very affectionate with strangers. Cats tend to roam.

Patting dogs on walks right now is also a bad idea.




 Neighbours kids plus Dexter.


----------



## Morrus

Urk. This isn’t good news. 50% survival rate if you end up in intensive care. 









						Coronavirus: new figures on intensive care deaths revealed
					

Findings of new report raise concerns about how effective new facilities will be




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> We've been told to include our pets in self isolation. Not because they can get it but because they can transfer it via their fur.




The aforementioned AVMA and the CDC both note that there are _no known cases_ of people catching covid-19 from a pet cat or dog.  None.  Zero.  Zip.  Nada.  Hundreds of thousands of cases, and none seem to come via this vector.

They recommend including your pets in isolation and keeping them away from sick humans out of an abundance of caution (so, "never say never"), not because there is any evidence it actually happens.  It appears that animal fur is a remarkably bad surface for the survival and transference of the virus.

I mean, don't sneeze your dog, and then hand it to someone and have them lick it.  But the evidence is against this being an issue in casual contact.

There are loads of things to actually worry about - the behavior of your fellow humans first and foremost.  Let us not rumormonger for things that are very low risk.


----------



## FrogReaver

FitzTheRuke said:


> I tried to find anything that corroborated it, and the only thing I could find is that there's an illness called *Feline Coronavirus* - that is a cat illness and has nothing *at all* to do with COVID19.




interesting


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> I tried to find anything that corroborated it, and the only thing I could find is that there's an illness called *Feline Coronavirus* - that is a cat illness and has nothing *at all* to do with COVID19.




Yep.

From my veterinarian wife:  Let us remember, "coronavirus" is not just one virus.  It is an entire family of viruses.  There are a bazillion different strains.  Some common in humans, others in felines, others in bats, others in bovines, and so on.  If you have had common colds in your life, you have likely had several different coronavirus infections.

Feline Coronavirus is very common.  It would be reasonable to call it ubiquitous. There is, in fact, a vaccine for it, but by the time a kitten is old enough for vaccination, they are almost sure to have had Feline Coronavirus already, and it is almost always asymptomatic.


----------



## Nebulous

I wouldn't exactly say this is Mother Nature "getting even", but it definitely seems like a cause and effect situation.  If mankind causes such incredible suffering in the animal kingdom there is going to be a side effect eventually. I did not, DID NOT know that the Chinese in that part of the world tortured dogs because they think the fear enhances the taste of the meat.   I knew they ate dogs...I did not know they purposely tortured them for flavor.









						Dog Torture/Meat Festivals Condemned By LA Leaders
					

LA Supervisors voted to support the opposition to foreign dog meat festivals where millions of dogs are tortured and killed annually.




					patch.com
				




And I assume the countless other animals in the wet markets were also caged under equally appalling and unimaginable conditions.  Honestly, it makes me kind of cry thinking about it.  I was stupidly naive and didn't even know that was happening.


----------



## Zardnaar

Nebulous said:


> I wouldn't exactly say this is Mother Nature "getting even", but it definitely seems like a cause and effect situation.  If mankind causes such incredible suffering in the animal kingdom there is going to be a side effect eventually. I did not, DID NOT know that the Chinese in that part of the world tortured dogs because they think the fear enhances the taste of the meat.   I knew they ate dogs...I did not know they purposely tortured them for flavor.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dog Torture/Meat Festivals Condemned By LA Leaders
> 
> 
> LA Supervisors voted to support the opposition to foreign dog meat festivals where millions of dogs are tortured and killed annually.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> patch.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And I assume the countless other animals in the wet markets were also caged under equally appalling and unimaginable conditions.  Honestly, it makes me kind of cry thinking about it.  I was stupidly naive and didn't even know that was happening.




 The wet markets are on YouTube 

 They're basically public slaughter houses with appallingly bad sanitary conditions. They hose blood etc into the public streets. 

 I've seen them here completely different.

 Not much in the way of empathy for your fellow humans either. Get knifed on a public street crowds will gather to watch not help. Eventually the cops will turn up to disperse the crowd vs helping the victim. Once again videos online. 

 Also flows over to food production. China's our biggest export market espicially for milk powder and formula due to scandals over what they've put in baby food. 

 It's completely bonkers.


----------



## Nebulous

Zardnaar said:


> The wet markets are on YouTube
> 
> They're basically public slaughter houses with appallingly bad sanitary conditions. They hose blood etc into the public streets.
> 
> I've seen them here completely different.
> 
> Not much in the way of empathy for your fellow humans either. Get knifed on a public street crowds will gather to watch not help. Eventually the cops will turn up to disperse the crowd vs helping the victim. Once again videos online.
> 
> Also flows over to food production. China's our biggest export market espicially for milk powder and formula due to scandals over what they've put in baby food.
> 
> It's completely bonkers.



No I can't watch something like that.  Just thinking of it makes me very upset. And yes, it IS completely bonkers and maybe a wake up call to the rest of the world.  We share this planet with our animal friends.


----------



## ad_hoc

It's not like animals are treated well in North America though.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> It's not like animals are treated well in North America though.




Overall animal welfare is beyond the scope of this discussion.  Let us not go down that path, please.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> It's not like animals are treated well in North America though.




 Completely different. Yes a freezing works isn't that pleasant, neither are chicken plants and fish factorys. Food standards are very strict here though.


----------



## Zardnaar

We just had our first death.


----------



## Sacrosanct

I don’t know how other states are, but here in Oregon, more and more people are popping up with severe symptoms and every one has said they can’t get tested. Honestly, based on earlier comments from the president about “keep the numbers down no matter what”, the debacle about refusing to use WHO test kits, the woeful lack of kits three months in, and it’s looking less and less likely that it’s a conspiracy to start thinking the the lack of testing is intentional. 

Which, if even remotely true, is literally the worst thing to do in order to combat any pandemic.


----------



## cmad1977

Sacrosanct said:


> Finally got most of the bugs worked out. Still some minor ones (like not all PCs having their darkvision working right with dynamic lighting), but we're good to go for Roll20 with discord as the audio




If your using an ‘advanced’ account the “torch” API makes the whole dynamic lighting thing with dark vision and other light sources really easy.


----------



## Azzy

Sacrosanct said:


> more and more people are popping up with severe symptoms and every one has said they can’t get tested.



I don't know about other states, but in Florida you can't get tested unless you have symptoms (or otherwise suspected to possibly have it) AND have a doctor's recommendation. We should be testing everyone.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eventually, universal or near universal testing will be the norm, in all likelihood.  Especially if a vaccine or effective antivirals don’t materialize as quickly as we hope.

Or _ever._


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Eventually, universal or near universal testing will be the norm, in all likelihood.  Especially if a vaccine or effective antivirals don’t materialize as quickly as we hope.
> 
> Or _ever._




 We had discussion about no vaccine a while ago on another forum. 

 Great leap backwards.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Right now I think Germany’s mortality rate is half a percent. We should be looking at what they are doing, and implementing best practices here. I know that won’t happen, cuz egos, but we absolutely should be.

I was just watching CNN International, and Ecuador is in bad shape. Already hospitals are completely full, and reports of dead bodies just left out in the street are surfacing.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sacrosanct said:


> Right now I think Germany’s mortality rate is half a percent. We should be looking at what they are doing, and implementing best practices here. I know that won’t happen, cuz egos, but we absolutely should be.
> 
> I was just watching CNN International, and Ecuador is in bad shape. Already hospitals are completely full, and reports of dead bodies just left out in the street are surfacing.




 Germany has a very high number of nurses per capita and one of the best health systems in the world.

 The European Social Democracies are probably going to do reasonably well along with maybe New Zealand if we're lucky.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Eventually, universal or near universal testing will be the norm, in all likelihood.  Especially if a vaccine or effective antivirals don’t materialize as quickly as we hope.
> 
> Or _ever._




I'm afraid by the time that's possible there won't be a need for it.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> I'm afraid by the time that's possible there won't be a need for it.




Ding ding. Testing mostly a placebo effect unless you get on top of it early with tracing etc.  

It's already to late testings only really useful now in certain areas.

 Would be useful for round two perhaps.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> Ding ding. Testing mostly a placebo effect unless you get on top of it early with tracing etc.
> 
> It's already to late testings only really useful now in certain areas.
> 
> Would be useful for round two perhaps.




Most good testing can do at the moment is confirming people had it so they can go back to work unafraid IMO.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> I'm afraid by the time that's possible there won't be a need for it.



Why would you think that?

Even after the pandemic passes, Covid-19 won’t be done with us.  As a zoonotic virus, there’s going to be some reservoir for it in the wild.

Based on the data from other coronaviruses, any exposure-based immunity or resistance to Covid-19 will be limited.








						Do You Get Immunity After Recovering From A Case Of Coronavirus?
					

The hope is that a person who has recovered from COVID-19 would have some protection against reinfection in the future. Here's what researchers do — and don't — know.




					www.npr.org
				






> "Most respiratory viruses only give you a period of relative protection. I'm talking about a year or two. That's what we know about the seasonal coronaviruses," says Falsey.
> 
> In studies, human volunteers who agreed to be experimentally inoculated with a seasonal coronavirus showed that even people with preexisting antibodies could still get infected and have symptoms.




They noted SARS antibodies were detectable in victims even in 2020, a couple years for MERS survivors.  But just because someone has antibodies, it doesn’t mean they’re safe from reinfection- coronaviruses are notorious for reinfecting people:



> It's also possible that, for some reason, the body's immune response to seasonal coronaviruses is just not that robust or that something about the infection itself may inhibit the body's ability to develop long-term immunity.
> 
> "Maybe the antibodies are not protective, and that is why, even though they are present, they don't work very well," says Frieman.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Testing mostly a placebo effect unless you get on top of it early with tracing etc.




Testing let’s you know who has it _now_.  That helps you trace contacts.  That helps you isolate the infected to prevent further transmission,


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Testing let’s you know who has it _now_.  That helps you trace contacts.  That helps you isolate the infected to prevent further transmission,




When somewhere between 100,000 and 1,000,000 already have it in the U.S. that doesn't matter anymore.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Testing let’s you know who has it _now_.  That helps you trace contacts.  That helps you isolate the infected to prevent further transmission,




 That's what we're doing here but it's reasonably early still. 

 Hence who I said early own.

 Not everyone gets tested there's not enough. Some people should have higher priority, healthcare workers for example.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> That's what we're doing here but it's reasonably early still.
> 
> Hence who I said early own.
> 
> Not everyone gets tested there's not enough. Some people should have higher priority, healthcare workers for example.




Testing can't keep up with exponential growth.  unless it's early testing.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> That's what we're doing here but it's reasonably early still.
> 
> Hence who I said early own.
> 
> Not everyone gets tested there's not enough. Some people should have higher priority, healthcare workers for example.



Thats why I said _after_ the pandemic, universal or nearly universal testing could become  the norm.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> When somewhere between 100,000 and 1,000,000 already have it in the U.S. that doesn't matter anymore.



Sure it does.  Unless you’re just going to accept the possibility of 100% infection, you still need to know what the virus is doing, where.  That also helps you track mutation rates and the number (currently 8) and nature of the strains.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sure it does.  Unless you’re just going to accept the possibility of 100% infection, you still need to know what the virus is doing, where.  That also helps you track mutation rates and the number (currently 8) and nature of the strains.




Population sampling not population testing


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> You should really reevaluate your beliefs in light on new evidence.




An update about this "evidence".  It appears this is a case of a news service getting ahead of actual evidence.  The veterinary and epidemiology experts in Belgium are rather upset that the news was reported in this way before proper confirmation was made. 

What follows is a tad gross, my apologies.

The test in question was from a fecal sample that the cat's owner (who were themselves positive and highly symptomatic for covid-19) took from droppings from the floor of their apartment.  They were not from a proper clean rectal sample.  And, there has been no workup of the animal to show if the animal's symptoms could have another cause. The chances that the owner contaminated the sample and produced a false positive for the cat are high.  There is currently intent to do an antibody test on the cat, but that will take a while.


----------



## Sacrosanct

If you’re wondering why I have a pessimistic and cynical view of the US over other developed nations, this is why.  Basically, don’t go to the hospital for anything unless you absolutely have to now. And my heart is breaking for the several personal friends of mine who are nurses.

Im not a medical health professional, but I did go to NBC school in the military, and what our current policies are regarding reusing PPE is a cross contamination disaster.


----------



## Umbran

Wow.  So much emotionally loaded language.  So little external evidence cited.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Umbran said:


> Wow.  So much emotionally loaded language.  So little external evidence cited.




Probably because it's so obvious and overwhelming.  It would be like asking for external evidence the stock market has tanked recently.    Is there really a need to cite obvious external examples, when the problems with our hospitals reusing PPE, having no PPE, and restrictions on using PPE is literally all over the news 24/7?  I mean, there is a reason why nurses and doctors are protesting (which is also all over the news).

This is a pandemic, thousands are dying, our system is woefully inadequate, and our leadership has done possibly the worst job addressing this as one could.  Of course it's going to be emotional language.  Only a sociopath would not use emotional language when it's their friends and family that are suffering and dying.  Whitewashing, candy coating, minimalizing, or whatever other term you want to use is not helping, and making the problem worse.  Because it makes people think the problem isn't as bad as it is, and delays appropriate response to address it.  We've literally seen how devastating that is in real time.   The only way to take appropriate measures is to be honest and truthful with what you're facing.


----------



## Sacrosanct

This is why downplaying the situation is dangerous.  This was written 2 weeks ago.  As we can see now, the actions of those who were downplaying it directly led to many people not taking appropriate steps to help mitigate it (social distancing, sheltering in place, etc), and actively caused the spread to be worse.  Which means thousands more are suffering and dying as a result.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> An update about this "evidence".  It appears this is a case of a news service getting ahead of actual evidence.



The "Classic SNL skit" for this story would start with somebody reading your comment from a few days back "Do not spray the cat with Lysol" and respond "Hold my beer"


----------



## Umbran

Sacrosanct said:


> Probably because it's so obvious and overwhelming.




With respect, if it is such then they should not have any issue providing citation.

It is an opinion piece on medium.  That's not a great, trustable pedigree.

This is not to say there is not a shortage of Personal Protective Equipment.  There is a drastic lack of such, and that is putting people's health at risk.  Beyond that (all the stuff about mis-management of the resources that do exist), the piece is personal assertion without support, and so maybe shouldn't be trusted just because it says so.


----------



## FrogReaver

Anyone have numbers on how many new York is testing per day?


----------



## Eltab

When you get caught flat-footed by a disaster - either not ready for the event or not ready for the scale / scope of the event - it is easy to claim The Authorities mismanaged resources, were criminally negligent, are stupid, uncaring, corrupt &c.  Such claims are made with every disaster, it seems.  They may or may not be true.


----------



## Morrus

Eltab said:


> When you get caught flat-footed by a disaster - either not ready for the event or not ready for the scale / scope of the event - it is easy to claim The Authorities mismanaged resources, were criminally negligent, are stupid, uncaring, corrupt &c.  Such claims are made with every disaster, it seems.  They may or may not be true.



Everything has to be somebody’s fault.


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> Anyone have numbers on how many new York is testing per day?




Just read the headline.

18 500 according to Cuomo.

He says that accounts for 25% of tests in the USA which means 75k/day. I've read the USA is working to ramp up to 100k/day.

They are doing more number of tests per day than any other country I believe but are still quite far behind per capita numbers.









						Cuomo: New York tests up to more than 18,000 people for COVID19 a day
					

Governor Andrew Cuomo announced Thursday that New York is now testing up to 18,650 people for the coronavirus a day.




					wbng.com


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> Just read the headline.
> 
> 18 500 according to Cuomo.
> 
> He says that accounts for 25% of tests in the USA which means 75k/day. I've read the USA is working to ramp up to 100k/day.
> 
> They are doing more number of tests per day than any other country I believe but are still quite far behind per capita numbers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cuomo: New York tests up to more than 18,000 people for COVID19 a day
> 
> 
> Governor Andrew Cuomo announced Thursday that New York is now testing up to 18,650 people for the coronavirus a day.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> wbng.com




Thanks.  About a week ago New York was having about 25% of tests come back positive from what I've seen.  New York's limiting factor on confirmed cases is testing at the moment.  New York cases appear to have stabilized about +6000 per day but likely far greater by now - as the testing is what's limiting their detection.


----------



## ad_hoc

After a quick Google check I found that the USA has completed roughly 650 000 tests.

Compare that to Canada which has completed 200 000 tests.

Per capita the equivalent to the usa would be 2 000 000 tests. That is 3x times as many per capita.

Per capita for confirmed cases Canada has less than half of the confirmed cases of the USA. Considering there were 3x times as many people tested per capita and you can see how much worse things have gotten in the USA so quickly.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> After a quick Google check I found that the USA has completed roughly 650 000 tests.
> 
> Compare that to Canada which has completed 200 000 tests.
> 
> Per capita the equivalent to the usa would be 2 000 000 tests. That is 3x times as many per capita.
> 
> Per capita for confirmed cases Canada has less than half of the confirmed cases of the USA. Considering there were 3x times as many people tested per capita and you can see how much worse things have gotten in the USA so quickly.




Per capita stops mattering at some point when dealing with exponential growth


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> Per capita stops mattering at some point when dealing with exponential growth




It's a good measure of how effective measures have been though.

It is also an indication of how well an area can cope. The USA's health system will be overrun before Canada's will be for example.


----------



## Morrus

ad_hoc said:


> After a quick Google check I found that the USA has completed roughly 650 000 tests.
> 
> Compare that to Canada which has completed 200 000 tests.
> 
> Per capita the equivalent to the usa would be 2 000 000 tests. That is 3x times as many per capita.
> 
> Per capita for confirmed cases Canada has less than half of the confirmed cases of the USA. Considering there were 3x times as many people tested per capita and you can see how much worse things have gotten in the USA so quickly.



And we’re talking about some of the richest countries in the world here. Most of the world is far less fortunate.


----------



## ad_hoc

Morrus said:


> And we’re talking about some of the richest countries in the world here. Most of the world is far less fortunate.




That's why I used Canada as a point of comparison to the USA.

They have the most in common with each other (though also have many differences of course).


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> It's a good measure of how effective measures have been though.
> 
> It is also an indication of how well an area can cope. The USA's health system will be overrun before Canada's will be for example.




 Anyone who paid attention figured this out about two weeks ago.

  I told my US friends what to expect about ten days ago when our government closed the borders. One of them didn't know about Italy.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Umbran said:


> With respect, if it is such then they should not have any issue providing citation.
> 
> It is an opinion piece on medium.  That's not a great, trustable pedigree.
> 
> This is not to say there is not a shortage of Personal Protective Equipment.  There is a drastic lack of such, and that is putting people's health at risk.  Beyond that (all the stuff about mis-management of the resources that do exist), the piece is personal assertion without support, and so maybe shouldn't be trusted just because it says so.




You seem to be confusing lack of external citation with difficulty providing external citation. Again, no citation is needed when discussing a problem that is covered on every media form, 24/7.  If I said the stock market has suffered major losses in the past month, would you dispute that unless I provided a link to an external cite?

Or are you disputing what that article is saying is actually happening?


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> It's a good measure of how effective measures have been though.
> 
> It is also an indication of how well an area can cope.




I think it's just an indication that an area has a smaller overall population.  



> The USA's health system will be overrun before Canada's will be for example.




This is true regardless of per capita testing


----------



## Sacrosanct

Eltab said:


> When you get caught flat-footed by a disaster - either not ready for the event or not ready for the scale / scope of the event - it is easy to claim The Authorities mismanaged resources, were criminally negligent, are stupid, uncaring, corrupt &c.  Such claims are made with every disaster, it seems.  They may or may not be true.





Morrus said:


> Everything has to be somebody’s fault.




Well when your country’s leader spends two months golfing, all the while saying it’s not a problem, it’s a hoax, it won’t happen here, is already getting better, it will disappear by April, “I don’t take responsibility” instead of doing what the rest of the developed world is doing by working to get prepared (and that’s not even considering disbanding the pandemic team in 2018 and removing the CDC embed from China in 2019, or refusing to help states unless their governors kiss up to him), then yeah, it’s pretty easy to place blame on someone for making it worse.  Look at the link I provided above about the danger of downplaying. It has real consequences, and those are lives lost.

this isn’t a political or partisan issue. It’s looking at the inactions and behavior and being able to tie it directly to making this disaster worse.


----------



## Sacrosanct

But fine. Here are some sources after two minutes of googling that backs up that article I linked above  









						Why America ran out of protective masks — and what can be done about it
					

If the US was better prepared for pandemics, it could have avoided the shortage of masks and other protective gear.




					www.vox.com
				












						There Isn't Enough Medical Gear: What People Are Doing to Help
					

Healthcare workers continue to face a growing shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE) as they admit and treat patients with COVID-19.




					www.healthline.com
				












						Amid PPE Shortage, Clinicians Face Harassment, Firing for Self-Care
					

Clinicians have been placed on leave or fired for protecting themselves against COVID-19.



					www.medscape.com
				












						Expired Respirators. Reused Masks. Nurses in the Nation’s Original Covid-19 Epicenter Offer Sobering Accounts of What Could Come.
					

When nurses at one Washington State hospital complained about having to use expired respirators, they allege that staff were ordered to remove stickers showing the equipment was years out of date.




					www.propublica.org


----------



## Morrus

Sacrosanct said:


> Well when your country’s leader spends two months golfing, all the while saying it’s not a problem, it’s a hoax, it won’t happen here, is already getting better, it will disappear by April, “I don’t take responsibility” instead of doing what the rest of the developed world is doing by working to get prepared, then yeah, it’s pretty easy to place blame on someone for making it worse.  Look at the link I provided above about the danger of downplaying. It has real consequences, and those are lives lost.
> 
> this isn’t a political or partisan issue. It’s looking at the inactions and behavior and being able to tie it directly to making this disaster worse.



I wasn’t talking about your country. I was talking about my own.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Who need Thanos when you have people?








						Marvel actor Keith Middlebrook arrested for claiming he had coronavirus cure
					

The FBI has arrested actor Keith Middlebrook, who had uncredited roles in Thor and Iron Man 2, after he tried to sell a cure for the coronavirus.




					www.yahoo.com
				












						Coronavirus: Police left in 'absolute shock' after finding 25 adults and children at karaoke party despite lockdown
					

Derbyshire Police said its officers were left shocked after finding the gathering of 25 adults in children in Normanton, Derby, on Saturday night.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

Sacrosanct said:


> Well when your country’s leader ....




*Mod Note:*
I know it is hard not to do this sort of thing.  But this thread has had warnings against politics.  

I'm sorry, but you won't be posting in this thread again.


----------



## Azzy

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Who need Thanos when you have people?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Marvel actor Keith Middlebrook arrested for claiming he had coronavirus cure
> 
> 
> The FBI has arrested actor Keith Middlebrook, who had uncredited roles in Thor and Iron Man 2, after he tried to sell a cure for the coronavirus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: Police left in 'absolute shock' after finding 25 adults and children at karaoke party despite lockdown
> 
> 
> Derbyshire Police said its officers were left shocked after finding the gathering of 25 adults in children in Normanton, Derby, on Saturday night.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



Or this:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coronavirus-church_n_5e7a6f71c5b6e051e8dcd517
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/politics/coronavirus-liberty-university-falwell.html


----------



## Zardnaar

Azzy said:


> Or this:
> 
> https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coronavirus-church_n_5e7a6f71c5b6e051e8dcd517
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/politics/coronavirus-liberty-university-falwell.html




 Gotta keep those tithes coming in. 

 I'm enjoying my police state atm. The cops can drag you off for no real reason and we've been told to expect to see the military in the streets.

 Borders closed can't even flee. 

 The cops have a huge amount of leeway and and chosing what laws to enforce and how. They're ignoring ones like how much dangerous goods you can ship.

 Also not really allowed to leave the local area. Walking around the block is fine anywhere else can be a please explain.

 I've bought two weeks supply of alcohol for the third time this week (joke). Wife vetoed my plan to get 24 litres of Zatecky Gus.


----------



## FrogReaver

Today in press conference President Trump said (paraphrased) U.S. deaths would be between 1.6 million and 2.2 million if we do nothing. He went on to say that 100,000 to 200,000 range would mean we did a good job.

I have confirmed these statements in the middle of a video that’s over an hour long. I seen reports on some news sites but no video clips - So i validated.


----------



## Garthanos

FrogReaver said:


> Today in press conference President Trump said (paraphrased) U.S. deaths would be between 1.6 million and 2.2 million if we do nothing. He went on to say that 100,000 to 200,000 range would mean we did a good job.
> 
> I have confirmed these statements in the middle of a video that’s over an hour long. I seen reports on some news sites but no video clips - So i validated.



I have problems taking his word for anything, But given his being contradicted so often by actual experts ie by actual medical scientists its even worse.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’ve seen similar numbers elsewhere, soooo...


----------



## Zardnaar

Half the country essentially unemployed.









						1.2 million NZ workers thought to be 'sitting idle' at home during lockdown
					

Lockdown dividing NZ's workforce down the middle, economist estimates.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Wife's been sent home for the week despite being in "essential" work. She had a heap of holidays owed and they're encouraging ones with more than 20 days to use some.


----------



## GreyLord

Hmm, well, I'm going to post something that is on what the thread was originally about, but seeing as the thread has moved to a different forum...this may actually be off topic from the thread now.

Maybe I should start a new thread.

Anyhows...continued to play Dungeon of the Mad Mage with our group while we are in isolation.  Using the Portal.  Hit some glitches this time as the portals got fuzzy at times.  I checked and it doesn't seem that my internet was being used by others, but maybe there is an impact on internet usage through the community at prime hours?

Going is slow, we are still on the first level.  It is starting to go more smoothly now.  They backtracked somewhat through areas they already explored (I'm not expanding the dungeon, so those areas are simply rooms now, meaning they had to backtrack somewhat to the rest of the first level).  

Some have apps to roll the dice which they then show me, others moved so we can at least see the dice rolls when they roll them.  It seems to be going well now, though I still prefer face to face gaming.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> I have problems taking his word for anything, But given his being contradicted so often by actual experts ie by actual medical scientists its even worse.




Average of expert opinions is now at about 240,000 deaths in the US this year from covid-19.  So, yeah, 100,000 would be us doing a good job.


----------



## GreyLord

Umbran said:


> Average of expert opinions is now at about 240,000 deaths in the US this year from covid-19.  So, yeah, 100,000 would be us doing a good job.




I don't think I share that opinion.

Perhaps it would be a good job done by the US if it accomplishes this from here on out...

On the otherhand, I think good job would have been far below 100K deaths if the US had been proactive about it before this point.

Of course, similar thoughts could be expressed towards how many various nations have reacted to it thus far.

China may end up looking really good in comparison.


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> I don't think I share that opinion
> ....
> On the otherhand, I think good job would have been far below 100K deaths if the US had been proactive about it before this point.




If wishes were fishes.  Given where we are now, it looks like 100,000 will be a good job.


----------



## FrogReaver

GreyLord said:


> I don't think I share that opinion.
> 
> Perhaps it would be a good job done by the US if it accomplishes this from here on out...
> 
> On the otherhand, I think good job would have been far below 100K deaths if the US had been proactive about it before this point.
> 
> Of course, similar thoughts could be expressed towards how many various nations have reacted to it thus far.
> 
> China may end up looking really good in comparison.




It seems a Major possibility China lied about their numbers.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Average of expert opinions is now at about 240,000 deaths in the US this year from covid-19.  So, yeah, 100,000 would be us doing a good job.



I will give credit they are broadly far far from certain


----------



## slobster

Umbran said:


> If wishes were fishes.  Given where we are now, it looks like 100,000 will be a good job.



It's the "given where we are now" part that is the most frustrating. When this is all over, we need to take a serious look at the failures all along the line that led to us not using the time and warning we had to properly prepare for this crisis. I'm on the "inside" somewhat, in that the lab where I work is currently doing testing and speaking every day with the healthcare system in our area, and I can tell you that we are STILL not prepared for the level of threat that this virus poses, not by a long shot. And those preparations would have been far, far easier to make months ago, when the economy wasn't shut down and resources weren't being pulled in a million directions. And that's not getting into things like the FDA rejecting the WHO test or the failure to ramp up our stores of PPE and testing equipment in the years since the last pandemic.

But yeah, in the middle of a crisis, we deal with what's in front of us. Minimize the suffering by whatever means we can take, don't spend valuable time on what-ifs.

Once the crisis is past, we need to understand why we flocked it up so incredibly badly, and where necessary heads are gonna have to roll when it's discovered that people knew better and weren't raising a fuss because they didn't want to upset the central government/wanted to profit/had ideological reasons to ignore it for personal power/were deeply stupid and people suffered and died for that stupidity.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

FrogReaver said:


> It seems a Major possibility China lied about their numbers.




This. Anyone who takes the word of any Communist government at face value is just fooling themselves.


----------



## Janx

In the bucket of crazy ideas I have:

Companies in non-essential markets could furlough their employees, donate their pay to a charity that pays those employees, and write the entire thing off on their taxes (kinda like what Amazon did).

They could pay those employees and order them to do anything. Like charity work reading to kids, making masks, whatever is safe to help with. And write that off on their taxes.

The bigger companies that just laid people off lack imagination.


----------



## briggart

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> This. Anyone who takes the word of any Communist government at face value is just fooling themselves.




I feel it has little to do with the government and more with lockdown and health system being overrun. It's the same thing here in Italy: resources are limited (it's getting better, but we are still in the thick of it) so tests are given mostly to people admitted to the hospitals, which are those already in very bad conditions. A lot of people are passing away at home or anyway before they can get tested, so they don't figure in the official statistics for covid-19.

I recently read an analysis of the death rate in Nembro, a small town which is one of the worst affected area of Italy. During Jan-Mar, ~30 people positive to the virus died there. The historical number of deaths for Jan-Mar period is ~35. The actual number of deaths since beginning of the year is over 150, so there were an additional ~90 deaths which are very likely due to the virus but did not enter the official statistics. In other words, the official numbers there accounted for ~1/4th of the actual deaths. This is not a general result, other areas are not showing such a large discrepancy, but once you enter full disaster mitigation mode, the numbers become sketchy everywhere.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> This. Anyone who takes the word of any Communist government at face value is just fooling themselves.



Mod Note: while cautioning against misinformation is wise, _politicizing _the warning is against ENWorld’s rules.  We’ve already had a handful of warnings about politics in this thread, and have kept it open because we think the value of this discussion is high.

But if people keep getting political, this thread _will_ get shut.


----------



## Zardnaar

6am day 6 of lockdown. Wife's got the rest of the week off. Was planning on running  some D&D but not really in the mood.

 Overall situation is a buzzkill.


----------



## NotAYakk

This year 20 million more people where born than died.  31+29+30 days is 90 days, so 222 thousand per day.

Yesterday, for which we have complete stats, there where 3,204 deaths.  As noted above, this may be an undercount.

Over the past week, deaths have grown from *14,640* to *34,065*, a rate of 12.8% per day.   The deaths per day has also been growing at roughly that rate.

3204 * 1.128^X = 222,000 is the number of days, at this rate, before Covid-19 causes deaths to overtake births for a day.  Solving for X we get ln(69)/ln(1.28) or 18 days.

So at the current rate of growth, on April 17th more people will die than are born.  Definitely for the first time since WW2, and if not that since the 1918 pandemic.



Spoiler



There are many ways the rates can change.  Social isolation may prove effective, reducing the curve from larger areas.  New outbreaks may be preempted with early response.

But the 13% per day already includes the under control Wuhan deaths, and the relatively under control Seattle, Italy, etc.  There are a number of places where it is getting out of control (NY, France, Spain, UK) and there are weeks of growth left, plus a myriad of under tested places where an epidemic could be exploding.

A week ago, the USA looked good with a declining growth rate in deaths; then NYC exploded and overtook Seattle.  That wasn't a surprise; that was expected to happen.  If not NYC, then somewhere else.

Every week we should expect an exponentially increasing number of new hotspots in the USA and around the world, as pandemics have *local* exponential epidemics, and a *global* exponential number of epidemics.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> 6am day 6 of lockdown. Wife's got the rest of the week off. Was planning on running  some D&D but not really in the mood.



It is really nice to just hear people talk.  Join a game if you don't feel like running one.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> It is really nice to just hear people talk.  Join a game if you don't feel like running one.




 Don't wanna do that. Managed a couple of MP games of Europa Universalis IV but that's also fallen off.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

I would concur that right now hearing other people's voices (and seeing their faces, if they've got webcams), regardless of whether or not you're gaming, is really important.

I've got my D&D session coming up this weekend, and I'm possibly playing in one later in the week. Looking forward very much to seeing my friends' faces, in addition to just gaming.



NotAYakk said:


> It is really nice to just hear people talk.


----------



## GreyLord

Ralif Redhammer said:


> I would concur that right now hearing other people's voices (and seeing their faces, if they've got webcams), regardless of whether or not you're gaming, is really important.
> 
> I've got my D&D session coming up this weekend, and I'm possibly playing in one later in the week. Looking forward very much to seeing my friends' faces, in addition to just gaming.




It's interesting at least.  Its different, but it's still gaming.  I've been using Portal recently, but someone suggested to try Zoom instead.  Not sure how easy it is for everyone to log into Zoom and how friendly it is to tablets and cellphones as well as PC's.

It can be tougher at times to get people to focus on the game this way, but I think they do appreciate being able to chat with each other even if we are not seeing each other face to face in person.  There is always some sort of chit chat going on in the past few game sessions onlne.


----------



## HarbingerX

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> This. Anyone who takes the word of any Communist government at face value is just fooling themselves.




While I agree that the quality of information provided by the Chinese government should be considered suspect, there is strong evidence support that they aren't lying about their numbers that much. China has a population of 1.5 billion which makes the number of potential cases staggering. If the disease was still spreading from their peak of ~80000 4 weeks ago, they would now be at numbers of ill that would have major impacts on their ability to manage the country. The level of infection and dead would be easily detectable from outside, let alone the amount of leaks that would be happening inside a country dealing with millions of ill. 

Instead there is tons of evidence they are reopening factories and goods are beginning to flow again to their Western partners. 

I won't comment on the politics as requested by the mod, but I do recommend taking some time looking at the numbers and what news is coming out of China right now. Mistrust is healthy, but don't let it get in the way of facts.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

GreyLord said:


> On the otherhand, I think good job would have been far below 100K deaths if the US had been proactive about it before this point.




It's sadly too late for that good a job. A bad job has already been done.


----------



## NotAYakk

A good job in the USA had to have started 10 years ago.

A reserve of cheap respirators.  A SARS and MERS vaccine.  Treatments for SARS and MERS.  SARS and MERS test kits.  Ridiculous stockpiles of PPE.  A disease alert network, and mandatory training for dealing with respiratory epidemics.  Reserve hospital capacity requirements.  A functional pandemic response council.  Funding global pandemic response.

Many of these things where tried.  Their funding was cut and the systems gutted.

Taiwan didn't let their systems get gutted.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Our switchover, once we got the tech kerfuffles ironed out, was pretty seamless. About the only difference is that I try to call on people one-by-one rather than just the blanket "what are you doing?" I find that helps minimize people talking at once, which online can make things much more difficult.



GreyLord said:


> It's interesting at least.  Its different, but it's still gaming.  I've been using Portal recently, but someone suggested to try Zoom instead.  Not sure how easy it is for everyone to log into Zoom and how friendly it is to tablets and cellphones as well as PC's.
> 
> It can be tougher at times to get people to focus on the game this way, but I think they do appreciate being able to chat with each other even if we are not seeing each other face to face in person.  There is always some sort of chit chat going on in the past few game sessions onlne.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This is the second report I’ve seen that suggests Covid-19 might have had a slightly earlier jump into humanity than the recent events in Wuhan..








						Coronavirus: Scientists suggest theory that COVID-19 has lived inside humans for years
					

A study recently published in Nature highlighted the fact that the virus is definitely not man-made, and is the product of natural evolution.




					www.yahoo.com
				




This could be similar to what happened with HIV.  While it was first identified in the 1980s, we NOW know of cases going back to the late 1950s (due to preserved blood samples).  Other research suggests that the progenitor strain to the pandemic jumped into humanity in the early 1900s, and may have been circulating regularly as early as the 1920s.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NotAYakk said:


> A SARS and MERS vaccine.  Treatments for SARS and MERS.



To be fair, many countries tried for years on both.  In fact, There were 4 cases of SARS among lab technicians in China due to accidents in the research process in the 3 years following the outbreak.

But money for it did dry up.

This isn’t news, though.  Orphan drugs are a thing.  And even with persistent afflictions, funding can evaporate for a lot of reasons.  If you look back 20 years ago, there were several pharmacology companies working on flu vaccines and treatments.  Now we’re down to a fraction of what we had, and supplies sometimes run out.



> Taiwan didn't let their systems get gutted.




My Dad has a MPH (Masters in Public Health) to go with his MD.  One of his mottoes is that public health measures have saved more lives than medicine ever will.  Hopefully, some governments & other institutions will take that to heart.

Also, sometimes, efforts fail:








						The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators. The Mission Failed.
					

Thirteen years ago, a group of U.S. public health officials came up with a plan to address what they regarded as one of the medical system's crucial vulnerabilities: a shortage of ventilators.The breathing-assistance machines tended to be bulky, expensive and limited in number. The plan was to build




					www.yahoo.com
				




Cliff’s Notes version: company won a US gov’t contract to produce ventilators for @1/3 the going costs, but a combination of mergers, acquisitions, and the rise of the Ebola threat killed the project.   And subsequent examination of the prototypes indicate they might not have been satisfactory (or deliverable at the contract price) even if they had been produced.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

I won't generalize and will keep trying to not be political. New reports are just coming out of Wuhan about the govt lying about the number of dead from this and that incinerators have been running 24/7, which will make it really hard to get any kind of accurate count. Cremation data out of Wuhan indicates closer to 40k died from this just in Wuhan, rather than the official 2500 being claimed.



			Wuhan COVID-19 Deaths May Be in Tens of Thousands, Data on Cremations Show


----------



## Zardnaar

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> I won't generalize and will keep trying to not be political. New reports are just coming out of Wuhan about the govt lying about the number of dead from this and that incinerators have been running 24/7, which will make it really hard to get any kind of accurate count. Cremation data out of Wuhan indicates closer to 40k died from this just in Wuhan, rather than the official 2500 being claimed.
> 
> 
> 
> Wuhan COVID-19 Deaths May Be in Tens of Thousands, Data on Cremations Show




 There's various leaked videos that indicate that things weren't so good in Wuhan. 

 Always thought 2E would be my edition if choice if I got stuck on a deserted island. 

 Now  stuck on an island in the South Pacific.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Zardnaar said:


> There's various leaked videos that indicate that things weren't so good in Wuhan.
> 
> Always thought 2E would be my edition if choice if I got stuck on a deserted island.
> 
> Now in stuck on an island in the South Pacific.




If I were stuck with a game system to play, I would pick something more flexible like BRP or maybe GURPS, since I would finally have to time to read and figure that one out.  lol

And almost nothing worse that being stuck on a beautiful island, only to have to stay inside and not enjoy it.


----------



## Morrus

NotAYakk said:


> This year 20 million more people where born than died.




That's interesting. It sounds low to me (I'm not arguing with it) -- could you point to some more info on those stats? I'd be interested in reading up on it.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Morrus said:


> That's interesting. It sounds low to me (I'm not arguing with it) -- could you point to some more info on those stats? I'd be interested in reading up on it.












						World Population Clock: 7.98 Billion People (2022) - Worldometer
					

How many people are there in the world? World population has reached 7.7 billion. World population live counter with data sheets, graphs, maps, and census data regarding the current, historical, and future world population figures, estimates, growth rates, densities and demographics




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Morrus

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> World Population Clock: 7.98 Billion People (2022) - Worldometer
> 
> 
> How many people are there in the world? World population has reached 7.7 billion. World population live counter with data sheets, graphs, maps, and census data regarding the current, historical, and future world population figures, estimates, growth rates, densities and demographics
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info



Ah, so far this year? That's why it seemed low to me!


----------



## NotAYakk

Morrus said:


> Ah, so far this year? That's why it seemed low to me!



Yes, that is why I said "this year"; first 90 days.


----------



## MoonSong

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> If I were stuck with a game system to play, I would pick something more flexible like BRP or maybe GURPS, since I would finally have to time to read and figure that one out. lol



I would go for something closer to Fate or BESM.


----------



## Zardnaar

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> If I were stuck with a game system to play, I would pick something more flexible like BRP or maybe GURPS, since I would finally have to time to read and figure that one out.  lol
> 
> And almost nothing worse that being stuck on a beautiful island, only to have to stay inside and not enjoy it.




 It's because I can do the most with 2E as it's a big toolbox.


----------



## Istbor

Still really trying to get a handle on all the material I need to convert for my Roll20 session coming up.

I do wonder though, is an advanced account worth it? Does anyone know? I have only used the free for several years. I have some assets and nice tools for making more. 

My biggest issue at the moment is getting large city maps in there. I am not sure what I can use to rapidly produce them for the digital venue. I am not sure I like the thought of scanning either.


----------



## Azzy

Istbor said:


> Still really trying to get a handle on all the material I need to convert for my Roll20 session coming up.
> 
> I do wonder though, is an advanced account worth it? Does anyone know? I have only used the free for several years. I have some assets and nice tools for making more.
> 
> My biggest issue at the moment is getting large city maps in there. I am not sure what I can use to rapidly produce them for the digital venue. I am not sure I like the thought of scanning either.



If Roll20 is a bit daunting, I'd suggest looking at Astral instead—it's a lot more user-friendly. I've only start looking at it yesterday, but it looks good and seems easy to dive into.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

My desert island/quarantine/disaster RPG would be HERO.  1 book, models everything well enough.


----------



## Istbor

Azzy said:


> If Roll20 is a bit daunting, I'd suggest looking at Astral instead—it's a lot more user-friendly. I've only start looking at it yesterday, but it looks good and seems easy to dive into.




I wouldn't say daunting. I think it is more the time crunch I have imposed on myself. Honestly I think most of my problems are because of self-imposed conditions 

Though, it is not great IMO for quick building a city map unless you have a really good library of assets set up. I do not. I have a modest amount so far, but many were for a different specific campaign. My Gator folk tokens and buildings won't be of much use to me now.

Oh. And my desert island RPG? I am honestly going to pick D&D 5e. It really is romancing me hard right now.


----------



## MoonSong

Azzy said:


> If Roll20 is a bit daunting, I'd suggest looking at Astral instead—it's a lot more user-friendly. I've only start looking at it yesterday, but it looks good and seems easy to dive into.



What is this Astral thing you mention?


----------



## GreyLord

Mine would be a cross between 1e.5 and 2e.  Hence, I get the best of both.  The Core books and supplements of 1e and the core books of 2e!

I can do a hybrid as the main campaign, but then choose to merely run 1e or 2e instead.

If it had to be only ONE book though...the RC.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

MoonSong said:


> What is this Astral thing you mention?



It's a VTT: Astral TableTop


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> Mine would be a cross between 1e.5 and 2e.  Hence, I get the best of both.  The Core books and supplements of 1e and the core books of 2e!
> 
> I can do a hybrid as the main campaign, but then choose to merely run 1e or 2e instead.
> 
> If it had to be only ONE book though...the RC.




 Yeah if you could only pick one book or a handful the RC would be it. 

 I think my D&D buying days are done for the immediate future.


----------



## Azzy

MoonSong said:


> What is this Astral thing you mention?





Theo R Cwithin said:


> It's a VTT: Astral TableTop




Yep, Theo has it. It's a Virtual Tabletop for playing RPGs online.


----------



## MoonSong

Azzy said:


> Yep, Theo has it. It's a Virtual Tabletop for playing RPGs online.



So I take it, it is chat based? How about other systems other than the ones announced?


----------



## Azzy

MoonSong said:


> So I take it, it is chat based? How about other systems other than the ones announced?



Yeah, it doesn't have integrated video and audio chat (that I'm aware of), so you'd need something like Discord, Teamspeak, Skype, or Zoo.

As far as the systems covered, yes it seems to support a LOT of different RPGs (too many to mention)—even some niche ones. Anything specific you have in mind?


----------



## cmad1977

Istbor said:


> Still really trying to get a handle on all the material I need to convert for my Roll20 session coming up.
> 
> I do wonder though, is an advanced account worth it? Does anyone know? I have only used the free for several years. I have some assets and nice tools for making more.
> 
> My biggest issue at the moment is getting large city maps in there. I am not sure what I can use to rapidly produce them for the digital venue. I am not sure I like the thought of scanning either.




So:
I ran RoT free and am now a pro subscriber. While the pro subscription gives you a lot of cool things, they’re mostly bells and whistles that aren’t necessary. I think the biggest thing is the increased space for saving maps etc. 
I found with the free version I’d run out of space and have to prune the contents of the adventure. 
For large city maps... have you tried Inkarnate? The free version could be a great fix for that especially as its for the short term. Hopefully.


----------



## MoonSong

Azzy said:


> As far as the systems covered, yes it seems to support a LOT of different RPGs (too many to mention)—even some niche ones. Anything specific you have in mind?



Fate, BESM, 5e or even homebrew?


----------



## Azzy

MoonSong said:


> Fate, BESM, 5e or even homebrew?



Yes on Fate, no on BESM. However, if you put the time and effort into it, you could create you own BESM (or other not-currently supported system). It's not as simple as using an existing system, but it can be done. Yes, it allows you to do homebrew—from game system to adding things to existing systems.


----------



## Zardnaar

Surrounded by food, but....









						Lockdown: Shop owner left with no option but to let $25,000 worth of produce rot
					

Pat O'Dea planned to give away his produce but was told he couldn't because of the health risk.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




And flour








						Coronavirus: Where has all the flour gone?
					

Sourcing flour is proving to be a challenge but the issue isn't with the production of flour, it's with the packaging.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## ad_hoc

The USA just hit over 200 000 cases.

They are now the country with the highest death rate in the world.

New York state has a population of 20 million and has over 85 000 cases alone. That is a density of cases of 4250 per million. That is over twice what Italy has, the country which currently has the most deaths.

Social distancing is so important.

Our D&D games are now fully online. The bad news is that I'm not a huge fan of adding technology to D&D. The good news is that we're now playing 1x/week rather than 1x/every 2 weeks. So silver linings.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

ad_hoc said:


> The USA just hit over 200 000 cases.
> 
> They are now the country with the highest death rate in the world.




Reported death rate is not the same as actual death rate, unfortunately, as we will probably never know how many actually died from this in places like Iran or China.


----------



## ad_hoc

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Reported death rate is not the same as actual death rate, unfortunately, as we will probably never know how many actually died from this in places like Iran or China.




While true, do you think the current death rate is still that high in China?

I think the number of deaths that have happened in China is likely much higher than what was reported. I have not heard that there are currently a lot of people dying. Maybe that information is not readily available.

Regardless, the point stands. The outbreak in the USA is expanding at an exponential rate. It is not slowing down any time soon.

It is hitting New York hard and will be hitting many other states just as hard soon.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

ad_hoc said:


> While true, do you think the current death rate is still that high in China?
> 
> I think the number of deaths that have happened in China is likely much higher than what was reported. I have not heard that there are currently a lot of people dying. Maybe that information is not readily available.
> 
> Regardless, the point stands. The outbreak in the USA is expanding at an exponential rate. It is not slowing down any time soon.
> 
> It is hitting New York hard and will be hitting many other states just as hard soon.




Considering everything coming out of Wuhan about the vast number of urns of peoples' ashes, that city by itself may actually have had 50k+ die from this and not the "official" countrywide number of under 4000 deaths.

Though when this is all over, the US will probably have more actual deaths from this than China's real numbers, even if our death rate is only 1% of cases. The rate may be lower that than once we have the time and ability to test anitbodies to see who had it and recovered and never reported being sick.


----------



## ad_hoc

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Considering everything coming out of Wuhan about the vast number of urns of peoples' ashes, that city by itself may actually have had 50k+ die from this and not the "official" countrywide number of under 4000 deaths.
> 
> Though when this is all over, the US will probably have more actual deaths from this than China's real numbers, even if our death rate is only 1% of cases. The rate may be lower that than once we have the time and ability to test anitbodies to see who had it and recovered and never reported being sick.




Yeah a lot of deaths won't be included in the statistics.

Collateral deaths are going to be a big thing too. People who need hospital care for other issues but won't be able to get it are going to start dying as well.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

ad_hoc said:


> Yeah a lot of deaths won't be included in the statistics.
> 
> Collateral deaths are going to be a big thing too. People who need hospital care for other issues but won't be able to get it are going to start dying as well.




Talking of collateral deaths, I am seriously worried about the poor in places like India. How many will starve to death because of the lockdowns, but will not be counted?


----------



## Ogre Mage

> The U.S. West Coast is offering hopeful signs that early social distancing efforts worked, allowing officials to increase hospital capacity and slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus.




Social distancing shows signs of curbing virus on West Coast


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The governor of Georgia- _home state of the CDC_- just found out in the last 24hrs that Covid-19 could be spread by asymptomatic carriers.








						‘We Didn’t Know That Until the Last 24 Hours’: Georgia Gov. Says He Just Found Out People without Symptoms Can Spread Coronavirus
					

While announcing a statewide shelter-in-place order on Wednesday, Georgia governor Brian Kemp, a Republican, said that he had just been informed that asymptomatic individuals could spread the coronavirus.The illness "is now transmitting before people see signs….Those individuals could have been...




					www.yahoo.com
				




Is it any wonder why our battle against the virus is going the way it is?

See also:








						Engineer accused of crashing train said he was 'suspicious' of nearby coronavirus relief ship, authorities say
					

A train engineer faces federal charges after he allegedly admitted to intentionally derailing a train Tuesday near the USNS Mercy, a ship sent to Los Angeles to ease the burden of hospitals treating coronavirus patients, according to the Department of Justice.




					www.cnn.com
				




And:


----------



## Azzy

So, can reckless endangerment and criminal negligence be invoked here?


----------



## Ogre Mage

The _NYT _has a graphical map and story entitled "Where America Didn't Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread":



> Stay-at-home orders have nearly halted travel for most Americans, but people in Florida, the Southeast and other places that waited to enact such orders have continued to travel widely, potentially exposing more people as the coronavirus outbreak accelerates, according to an analysis of cellphone location data by The New York Times.




Where America Didn't Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The governor of Georgia- _home state of the CDC_- just found out in the last 24hrs that Covid-19 could be spread by asymptomatic carriers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ‘We Didn’t Know That Until the Last 24 Hours’: Georgia Gov. Says He Just Found Out People without Symptoms Can Spread Coronavirus
> 
> 
> While announcing a statewide shelter-in-place order on Wednesday, Georgia governor Brian Kemp, a Republican, said that he had just been informed that asymptomatic individuals could spread the coronavirus.The illness "is now transmitting before people see signs….Those individuals could have been...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Is it any wonder why our battle against the virus is going the way it is?
> 
> See also:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Engineer accused of crashing train said he was 'suspicious' of nearby coronavirus relief ship, authorities say
> 
> 
> A train engineer faces federal charges after he allegedly admitted to intentionally derailing a train Tuesday near the USNS Mercy, a ship sent to Los Angeles to ease the burden of hospitals treating coronavirus patients, according to the Department of Justice.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And:




Darwin awards perhaps. 

 Warned my American friends two weeks ago tomorrow. 

 At the time Italy had 3000 dead. One week later it was 10k.


----------



## Umbran

We like to think of ourselves as a rational, intelligent species.  But, well....


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> We like to think of ourselves as a rational, intelligent species.  But, well....




You must be an optimist.

My view tends to be we're self aware sentient monkeys with cell phones and nukes.

Some of our cousins fell down the stairs and hit their heads a few times on the way down.

Monkeys might be smarter come to think of it.

Cops here are clearing beaches and can throw transgressors in the can. There's a hotline to dob in the morons.

Civil liberty types are complaining, essentially we are a police state atm. They can drag your ass off and throw you into enforced quarantine.

 Some law from 1956.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Azzy said:


> So, can reckless endangerment and criminal negligence be invoked here?



Depends on the local laws and the locals who enforce them.


----------



## Umbran

Meanwhile, one manufacturer of gaming materials finds something useful they can do with their shut-down shop:









						Wyrmwood Gaming and COVID-19
					

So, Wyrmwood, makers of dice towers, boxes, gaming tables, and the like, has had to mostly close their shop due to the epidemic.  They keep a skeleton crew around to do some shippign, of things made at their crafter's homes.  And then they realized they could make something health care workers...




					www.enworld.org


----------



## NotAYakk

NotAYakk said:


> Time travel back two weeks and see if it would be all hype then.
> 
> On Mar 14 there where 75k cases outside china.  Today there are more than 100k cases in the USA.
> 
> It sure seems plausible that in 2 weeks, death counts in the USA will be similar to death counts worldwide, outside of china, today, plus 33%ish.
> 
> As a ballpark number.  So 27k-3k, plus 33% is a plausible 32,000 dead in the USA.  Now this is just a plausible one; my point is going from 75k diagnosed cases to 25k dead in 2 weeks is *typical*.



How is that prediction coming?  Mar 28 (5 days ago), I said 2 weeks to 25k-33k deaths in USA is plausible.

USA on Apr 1 had 5200 total deaths (Apr 2 not done yet).  On Mar 28 they had 2220.  That is 4 days, and 2.34x deaths, or 23.7% per day.

1.237^14 is 19.64x

2220 * 19.64 is 43,600.

So the USA is ahead of schedule.

Note that the USA now has 240,000 cases diagnosed.  When the world had 240,000 cases diagnosed (Mar 19), 10 days later (Mar 29) they had 723,000 diagnosed, and 34,000 dead.  So we are on track there too.

Going from 240,000 diagnosed to 1 million has taken 14 days.  So on or about April 16, the USA could have 1 million Covid-19 cases diagnosed.

Currently, Covid-19 is the #3 cause of death in the USA.  In a few days it will pass Cancer and Heart Disease.  So for everyone who said "we shouldn't be worried, car accidents are more dangerous", well, you fixed it.  Now they aren't.

USA population growth is about 0.7% per year, or about 5753 per day (last year).  USA has 1049 deaths/day on Apr 1.  At 23.7% growth rate, the USA is 8 days away from population decline.

On or about April 9th, 2020, US population starts declining due to Covid-19 (unless the death curve moves; 8 days isn't very long, and NYC's severe isolation didn't start early enough to prevent it from continuing to grow).

In late April/early May, the same may happen to the entire world.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> How is that prediction coming?  Mar 28 (5 days ago), I said 2 weeks to 25k-33k deaths in USA is plausible.
> 
> USA on Apr 1 had 5200 total deaths (Apr 2 not done yet).  On Mar 28 they had 2220.  That is 4 days, and 2.34x deaths, or 23.7% per day.
> 
> 1.237^14 is 19.64x
> 
> 2220 * 19.64 is 43,600.
> 
> So the USA is ahead of schedule.
> 
> Note that the USA now has 240,000 cases diagnosed.  When the world had 240,000 cases diagnosed (Mar 19), 10 days later (Mar 29) they had 723,000 diagnosed, and 34,000 dead.  So we are on track there too.
> 
> Going from 240,000 diagnosed to 1 million has taken 14 days.  So on or about April 16, the USA could have 1 million Covid-19 cases diagnosed.
> 
> Currently, Covid-19 is the #3 cause of death in the USA.  In a few days it will pass Cancer and Heart Disease.  So for everyone who said "we shouldn't be worried, car accidents are more dangerous", well, you fixed it.  Now they aren't.
> 
> USA population growth is about 0.7% per year, or about 5753 per day (last year).  USA has 1049 deaths/day on Apr 1.  At 23.7% growth rate, the USA is 8 days away from population decline.
> 
> On or about April 9th, 2020, US population starts declining due to Covid-19 (unless the death curve moves; 8 days isn't very long, and NYC's severe isolation didn't start early enough to prevent it from continuing to grow).
> 
> In late April/early May, the same may happen to the entire world.




 Early March I thought it would get thousands but less than those shot to death. 

 12 days ago give or take warned my friend 9/11 type numbers every 1-3 days but right through the country. 

 Think I got accused of panic spreading here when it hit 300 odd a day. 

 I wasn't expecting Italy levels of bungling, turns out Italy may have done better.


----------



## CleverNickName

CleverNickName said:


> I'll check back in two weeks and see if this was all just hype.



I wrote that on March 27th.  The total number of people in the United States who had died from this pandemic at that time was 1,695...400 of whom died on the 27th alone. 

As of today, 5,808 people in America have died from this pandemic so far, with 1,049 of those deaths happening just yesterday (Source).  The number of casualties more than tripled in six days.  It will likely triple again in another 6 days.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

(FWIW, I’m liking the _tracking _of stats, not the actual story the stats are telling.)


----------



## FrogReaver

This article concerned me about U.S. testing.



			Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry
		


Basically says tests could be yielding significant false negatives.  Thoughts?


----------



## FrogReaver

My current projection is that we will have about 20,000 U.S. deaths by 4/9 (a week from today).  

We currently sit at 5,865


----------



## Dannyalcatraz




----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> This article concerned me about U.S. testing.
> 
> 
> 
> Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry
> 
> 
> 
> Basically says tests could be yielding significant false negatives.  Thoughts?




 Once it gets to a certain point tests don't matter. 

 Count body bags.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> Once it gets to a certain point tests don't matter.
> 
> Count body bags.




Yep.  I think New York States test count is already at capacity.  They don't budge for 2-3 days and then they add a few thousand more and don't budge.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

NotAYakk said:


> Currently, Covid-19 is the #3 cause of death in the USA. In a few days it will pass Cancer and Heart Disease. So for everyone who said "we shouldn't be worried, car accidents are more dangerous", well, you fixed it. Now they aren't.



Hmm... is this right? How are you figuring this?
To ballpark, I looked up 2017 numbers: Number 1 killer was heart disease, at 647k for that year. I'm just assuming that this year's numbers are close-ish to that year's, and crudely guesstimating that through March should be about a quarter of that number. That yields something in the neighborhood of 160k. Same reasoning for cancer (Number 2 killer) yields ~150k in Q1; and for car accidents, ~42k.
Current COVID-19 deaths (~5900 at this writing) are nowhere near any of those. What am I missing?

Now with that said, what I _can_ see is that by end of June, COVID-19 could be 90k-95k, if IHME's middle-of-the-road projections prove correct. That may well exceed car accidents, expected to be in roughly 80k-90k using 2017's numbers. (Actually, I wonder if car accidents will drop significantly this year, since fewer people are driving fewer miles thanks to the pandemic?)


----------



## FrogReaver

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Hmm... is this right? How are you figuring this?
> To ballpark, I looked up 2017 numbers: Number 1 killer was heart disease, at 647k for that year. I'm just assuming that this year's numbers are close-ish to that year's, and crudely guesstimating that through March should be about a quarter of that number. That yields something in the neighborhood of 160k. Same reasoning for cancer (Number 2 killer) yields ~150k in Q1; and for car accidents, ~42k.
> Current COVID-19 deaths (~5900 at this writing) are nowhere near any of those. What am I missing?
> 
> Now with that said, what I _can_ see is that by end of June, COVID-19 could be 90k-95k, if IHME's middle-of-the-road projections prove correct. That may well exceed car accidents, expected to be in roughly 80k-90k using 2017's numbers. (Actually, I wonder if car accidents will drop significantly this year, since fewer people are driving fewer miles thanks to the pandemic?)




Speaking of it's probably good to go update my mileage estimate with my insurance company.  Silver Lining!


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> Basically says tests could be yielding significant false negatives.  Thoughts?




Could be.  But, lots of things _could_ be.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

FrogReaver said:


> This article concerned me about U.S. testing.
> 
> 
> 
> Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry
> 
> 
> 
> Basically says tests could be yielding significant false negatives.  Thoughts?




Maybe and maybe not? I look at Virginia's numbers as of today and only 10% of tests find positive cases. So either a lot of unnecessary testing or defective test kits.


----------



## FrogReaver

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Maybe and maybe not? I look at Virginia's numbers as of today and only 10% of tests find positive cases. So either a lot of unnecessary testing or defective test kits.




A week or 2 ago it was at 6.7% of tests finding positive cases.  

However, Virginia is barely testing at all.  To date they've performed 17,589 tests.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

FrogReaver said:


> A week or 2 ago it was at 6.7% of tests finding positive cases.
> 
> However, Virginia is barely testing at all.  To date they've performed 17,589 tests.




Yes, but with the more focused testing being done here, I would expect a much higher percentage to be positive.

Once they can start doing the antibodies check, it will be interesting to see how many people had it, never knew it, and got better.

I still expect the US to have a death rate no higher than 1%, but that is still 300k, if 30m get sick.


----------



## Umbran

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Maybe and maybe not? I look at Virginia's numbers as of today and only 10% of tests find positive cases. So either a lot of unnecessary testing or defective test kits.




Well, note there's also the heuristics around who they choose to test that will impact this.  Like, say you are testing only first responders and health care providers, but among that group, you test for even an occasional cough, you'll see many tests coming back negative.


----------



## FrogReaver

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Yes, but with the more focused testing being done here, I would expect a much higher percentage to be positive.
> 
> Once they can start doing the antibodies check, it will be interesting to see how many people had it, never knew it, and got better.
> 
> I still expect the US to have a death rate no higher than 1%, but that is still 300k, if 30m get sick.




I'm more interested in death rate compared to confirmed cases at this time.  That's going to be much higher than 1% IMO.  

Overall deathrate is near meaningless when we have no idea the actual numbers of people that have it.  I mean I suppose it gives us a maximum number of possible deaths (1% of 330million) = 3.3 million.  However, for while we are going through it all we really know is how many test positive and how many of those test positive die.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> Early March I thought it would get thousands but less than those shot to death.
> 
> 12 days ago give or take warned my friend 9/11 type numbers every 1-3 days but right through the country.
> 
> Think I got accused of panic spreading here when it hit 300 odd a day.
> 
> I wasn't expecting Italy levels of bungling, turns out Italy may have done better.



It isn't *bungling*.

It is something that doubles every 3 days and has a 20 day delay between measures and results.

So when you see 2 deaths in a day, you have already locked in 250 deaths/day in 20 days, and it then *starts* to grow slower.  If you wait 3 days after 2 deaths in a day, you have 500/day locked in.  Wait a week?  1000/day.

Look, I have absolutely no excuse to not understand exponential curves, and it took *me* far too long to get how horrible this is.  And after I did, I still missed stuff like the running out of ICU beds.

What more, the error bars involved where ridiculously huge early on.  "Tiny" changes in spread rate, symptomatic rate, etc resulted in orders of magnitude (like, more than 1) difference in impact.

Getting non-epidemiologists to get how dangerous this is is *hard*.  And the epidemiologists -- well, the naive answer remains "This is an upper repiratory infection.  Pandemics of these are all the same.  Everyone gets sick." - the fact that we have managed to contain and extinguish it is something *new*.  The consensus in the UK was to let it burn, until the Imperial college paper pointed out how hot the fire would be, and that there was a plausible way to avoid the fire.  Then they changed course.

But, TL;DR, don't assume Italy bungled it.

There are 4 countries on the *planet* who are not currently on track to duplicate what happened to Italy.   If you think Italy *bungled it*, you will have false confidence that your government seems competent, so it won't.

Look here:









						Covid Trends
					

Visualizing the exponential growth of COVID-19 across the world.




					aatishb.com
				




There is a main sequence. *Almost everyone is on it* or near it.  Japan, AUS, Switzerland are marginal.  SK, Singapore, Taiwan and China are off it.  Iran is lying.

(This is a double-log graph of total diagnosed vs new diagnoses in the last week.  At the far left, you have noise.  Once you are past SK, there is a main sequence that USA is currently at the top of.  Falling under this sequence a bit is modest controls, delaying disaster.  SK and China dropped of it like a cliff when they contained their epidemics.)


----------



## NotAYakk

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Hmm... is this right? How are you figuring this?
> To ballpark, I looked up 2017 numbers: Number 1 killer was heart disease, at 647k for that year. I'm just assuming that this year's numbers are close-ish to that year's, and crudely guesstimating that through March should be about a quarter of that number. That yields something in the neighborhood of 160k. Same reasoning for cancer (Number 2 killer) yields ~150k in Q1; and for car accidents, ~42k.
> Current COVID-19 deaths (~5900 at this writing) are nowhere near any of those. What am I missing?



Per day.

647k / 365 is 1770 per day.
Cancer is 1600 per day.

Today, Covid-19 was the 3rd largest killer of Americans.  And unlike everything else in the top 100, it is growing exponentially.  It will be hard for it not to surpass Cancer/Heart disease by Wednesday next week.

Now you could say I'm cheating.  That I'm cherry picking a day.  But we have 8 months left, and Covid-19 has a lot of runway.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> It isn't *bungling*.
> 
> It is something that doubles every 3 days and has a 20 day delay between measures and results.
> 
> So when you see 2 deaths in a day, you have already locked in 250 deaths/day in 20 days, and it then *starts* to grow slower.  If you wait 3 days after 2 deaths in a day, you have 500/day locked in.  Wait a week?  1000/day.
> 
> Look, I have absolutely no excuse to not understand exponential curves, and it took *me* far too long to get how horrible this is.  And after I did, I still missed stuff like the running out of ICU beds.
> 
> What more, the error bars involved where ridiculously huge early on.  "Tiny" changes in spread rate, symptomatic rate, etc resulted in orders of magnitude (like, more than 1) difference in impact.
> 
> Getting non-epidemiologists to get how dangerous this is is *hard*.  And the epidemiologists -- well, the naive answer remains "This is an upper repiratory infection.  Pandemics of these are all the same.  Everyone gets sick." - the fact that we have managed to contain and extinguish it is something *new*.  The consensus in the UK was to let it burn, until the Imperial college paper pointed out how hot the fire would be, and that there was a plausible way to avoid the fire.  Then they changed course.
> 
> But, TL;DR, don't assume Italy bungled it.
> 
> There are 4 countries on the *planet* who are not currently on track to duplicate what happened to Italy.   If you think Italy *bungled it*, you will have false confidence that your government seems competent, so it won't.
> 
> Look here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid Trends
> 
> 
> Visualizing the exponential growth of COVID-19 across the world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> aatishb.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There is a main sequence. *Almost everyone is on it* or near it.  Japan, AUS, Switzerland are marginal.  SK, Singapore, Taiwan and China are off it.  Iran is lying.
> 
> (This is a double-log graph of total diagnosed vs new diagnoses in the last week.  At the far left, you have noise.  Once you are past SK, there is a main sequence that USA is currently at the top of.  Falling under this sequence a bit is modest controls, delaying disaster.  SK and China dropped of it like a cliff when they contained their epidemics.)




Our numbers aren't doubling every day. It's been 50-80 for the last week.

They've increased testing, 1 death, 1 in ICU they released 5.

So yes the numbers are going up but it's a lot slower.

 They closed access to China Feb 2 iirc, closed the border 2 weeks ago, self isolation 10-11 days ago, lockdown 8 days ago. 

 2 cases of community transmission, 2 days later lockdown.


----------



## FrogReaver

NotAYakk said:


> It is something that doubles every 3 days and has a 20 day delay between measures and results.




IMO we aren't testing when people get this on day 1.  Most people have it 1-2 weeks before getting testing and then maybe live an additional 7 or so on average after getting the test results (if they are going to die).  So I think what you are saying here isn't quite true of the reality of our situation.

Also, my best forecasting (in the U.S.) is coming from setting the timespan of the average confirmed case to death to about 8 days (when death occurs).


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

NotAYakk said:


> Per day.
> 
> 647k / 365 is 1770 per day.
> Cancer is 1600 per day.



Ah, gotcha. I see where you're coming from now. 
It _is_ a telling statistic; that's why I wanted to understand it. Thanks for the clarification!


----------



## FrogReaver

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Ah, gotcha. I see where you're coming from now.
> It _is_ a telling statistic; that's why I wanted to understand it. Thanks for the clarification!




My issue with that comparison is that it's like comparing a marathon runner to a sprinter only over a short time frame.  That's one way to use statistics to paint a picture that's lacking a lot of context.

I expect our efforts in the U.S. to keep this from being as deadly as cancer here over the course of the year.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

FrogReaver said:


> I expect our efforts in the U.S. to keep this from being as deadly as cancer here over the course of the year.




By years end, I really hope so. It will, unfortunately, beat the daily average rate for awhile, though. Hopefully it'll get under control before the totals rack up, though!


----------



## CleverNickName

I hope you are right, but I'm not as optimistic.  Social distancing is only as effective as the least-willing participant.  

Two weeks ago, certain news outlets, talk radio hosts, and elected officials were doing everything they could to downplay the severity of this pandemic.  They called it a hoax, they called it media hype, they called it silly; they openly mocked anyone who tried to warn or prepare.  To hear them talk, Covid-19 was another country's problem, it was a ploy to steal our freedom, it was a scheme to undermine our president, it was a bunch of gullible people overreacting.  It was literally anything they could think of except a crisis.

Now all of those same people are acting surprised, or changing their story, or making excuses, or hiding...they are now trying any trick they can think of to avoid admitting they were wrong.  As if hearing "I told you so" was the worst thing that could ever happen to them.  So people continue to mistrust their leaders--the ones they elected in the first place--and make them the enemy.  Just today, people back home are tweeting about "the government can't take away our constitutional right to assemble" and posting pictures of their church services and picnics last weekend.

So keep your eyes on the Southeastern quadrant of the United States.  In two weeks' time, they are the ones who are going to be "completely surprised" by this "sudden catastrophe" that "nobody could have predicted."


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

FrogReaver said:


> My issue with that comparison is that it's like comparing a marathon runner to a sprinter only over a short time frame.  That's one way to use statistics to paint a picture that's lacking a lot of context.
> 
> I expect our efforts in the U.S. to keep this from being as deadly as cancer here over the course of the year.



Yes, I expect/hope you're right.  That's why I asked for clarification. 

Still, it is an enlightening number. I mean, looking back historically from the future, there will have been a full season or two during 2020 when Covid-19 was consistently the #1 killer of people on a day-to-day basis in the US and other nations.  And by that little back-of-the-envelope calculation, to find it could even surpass car accidents and rise to be the #3 killer in America in _cumulative_ terms by mid-year here in the US. 

As it is, it looks like (using those outdated 2017 numbers) it could ultimately clock at year's end around #6, potentially beating out "normal" things like diabetes, flu+pneumonia, kidney disease, suicide. And that assumes current efforts go reasonably well.

No matter how it's sliced, this thing is certainly serious-- far beyond the "just a flu" that certain folks are _still_ claiming.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> Our numbers aren't doubling every day. It's been 50-80 for the last week.
> 
> They've increased testing, 1 death, 1 in ICU they released 5.
> 
> So yes the numbers are going up but it's a lot slower.
> 
> They closed access to China Feb 2 iirc, closed the border 2 weeks ago, self isolation 10-11 days ago, lockdown 8 days ago.
> 
> 2 cases of community transmission, 2 days later lockdown.



NZ?  On the main sequence, with only a small deviation that isn't strong evidence yet.

The 'main sequence' -- the thick line on Covid Trends -- includes doubling every 2-10 days.

Last week?  500 confirmed cases.  Overall? 800.  That means *most of your cases where found in the last week*.  Which is a sign of exponential growth.

It does mean you are better at buying time than other countries.  But if you double every week, after 3 months (13 weeks) you are at 6,400,000 cases - 2^13 times as many cases as 800.  (and yes, the extrapolation will fail before then, as herd immunity starts kicking in the R0 falls as more and more of the people you would infect are already sick, dead or immune).

To extinguish it, you need to up your game.  Because doubling every week delays the flood, it doesn't stop it.

The reason why delaying is worth it is that public health measures that do extinguish it take time to set up.  You need millions of test kits and people able to use them, tech to do contact tracing at scale, and you need to start extinguishing it instead of slowing it.

SK had a bigger epidemic and did it.  Get on it, or you are just delaying Italy (or worse, NYC) a few months.

Note that contact tracing doesn't have to be perfect.  Your goal is to get R0 under 1.  It normally has an R0 of around 2.5 and a cycle time of around 4 days (doubling every 3 days).  Effective isolation slows this down to an R0 of 1.4 or so, so doubling every 8 days or so.

If your contract tracing lets you head off 1/2 of people infected before they in turn infect others, R0 falls to *0.7*.  And 0.7 means it is exponentially shinking.

If you have 10,000 infected, they infect 7000 over 4 days, they infect 5000 over 4 days, they infect 3500 over 4 days, they infect 2500 over 4 days, they infect 1700, they infect 1200, they infect 800, they infect 600, they infect 400, they infect 300, they infect 200, they infect, 140, they infect 100...

You still get another *20000* infected, but the epidemic extinguishes itself.  And if you keep up the effort, your contract tracing starts getting better; your resources, originally stretched thin, start being able to choke it off faster.

TL;DR: nobody who hasn't done industrial-scale contract tracing and mass testing has beat this thing back.  Seattle, NZ, almost everywhere except SK, China, Sinagpore and Taiwan -- you are buying time, but this isn't what victory looks like.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> NZ?  On the main sequence, with only a small deviation that isn't strong evidence yet.
> 
> The 'main sequence' -- the thick line on Covid Trends -- includes doubling every 2-10 days.
> 
> Last week?  500 confirmed cases.  Overall? 800.  That means *most of your cases where found in the last week*.  Which is a sign of exponential growth.
> 
> It does mean you are better at buying time than other countries.  But if you double every week, after 3 months (13 weeks) you are at 6,400,000 cases - 2^13 times as many cases as 800.  (and yes, the extrapolation will fail before then, as herd immunity starts kicking in the R0 falls as more and more of the people you would infect are already sick, dead or immune).
> 
> To extinguish it, you need to up your game.  Because doubling every week delays the flood, it doesn't stop it.
> 
> The reason why delaying is worth it is that public health measures that do extinguish it take time to set up.  You need millions of test kits and people able to use them, tech to do contact tracing at scale, and you need to start extinguishing it instead of slowing it.
> 
> SK had a bigger epidemic and did it.  Get on it, or you are just delaying Italy (or worse, NYC) a few months.
> 
> Note that contact tracing doesn't have to be perfect.  Your goal is to get R0 under 1.  It normally has an R0 of around 2.5 and a cycle time of around 4 days (doubling every 3 days).  Effective isolation slows this down to an R0 of 1.4 or so, so doubling every 8 days or so.
> 
> If your contract tracing lets you head off 1/2 of people infected before they in turn infect others, R0 falls to *0.7*.  And 0.7 means it is exponentially shinking.
> 
> If you have 10,000 infected, they infect 7000 over 4 days, they infect 5000 over 4 days, they infect 3500 over 4 days, they infect 2500 over 4 days, they infect 1700, they infect 1200, they infect 800, they infect 600, they infect 400, they infect 300, they infect 200, they infect, 140, they infect 100...
> 
> You still get another *20000* infected, but the epidemic extinguishes itself.  And if you keep up the effort, your contract tracing starts getting better; your resources, originally stretched thin, start being able to choke it off faster.
> 
> TL;DR: nobody who hasn't done industrial-scale contract tracing and mass testing has beat this thing back.  Seattle, NZ, almost everywhere except SK, China, Sinagpore and Taiwan -- you are buying time, but this isn't what victory looks like.




I know but that's why we've been in full lockdown last week+.

We're expecting the numbers to keep climbing, we know people are gonna die.

We're not to worried about testing more the death toll. We know people have been missed.

Can't do much about it. We can try to limit the amount of people in ICU.

Governments been fairly straight up about things.


----------



## FrogReaver

What doesn't make sense to me is how it isn't being super spread at grocery stores in the U.S.  Or is it?  I've see way to many people packing themselves into walmarts to buy supplies.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> What doesn't make sense to me is how it isn't being super spread at grocery stores in the U.S.  Or is it?  I've see way to many people packing themselves into walmarts to buy supplies.




It's spreading that way.

We're avoiding the crowds here, most shops are shut including NZ versions of Amazon.

No take aways.

A few things can be ordered, supermarkets are open but with limited numbers allowed in and enforced social distancing in lines.


The big box stores like Walmart are closed. Online shopping closed. Takeaways closed.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> It's spreading that way.
> 
> We're avoiding the crowds here, most shops are shut including NZ versions of Amazon.
> 
> No take aways.
> 
> A few things can be ordered, supermarkets are open but with limited numbers allowed in and enforced social distancing in lines.
> 
> 
> The big box stores like Walmart are closed. Online shopping closed. Takeaways closed.




You in better shape than the U.S. on that front.  We have restaurants able to do curbside/delivery.  Walmart opened (though it doubles as a grocery store here which is why.)  Doctors offices open.  Pharmacies open.  Banks open.  Typically drive thru only where applicable.

I joke that the list of essential businesses allowed to stay open is nearly everyone.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> You in better shape than the U.S. on that front.  We have restaurants able to do curbside/delivery.  Walmart opened (though it doubles as a grocery store here which is why.)  Doctors offices open.  Pharmacies open.  Banks open.  Typically drive thru only where applicable.




Pharmacies are open, they count as essential. Medical centers are phone in only,non essential surgeries cancelled, all restaurants gone along with bars.

They nuked the tourism sector and the airlines.

 In theory tradies are only supposed to be doing essential work. There's been some violations.

  Hardware stores are only open for trades not the general public.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> It isn't *bungling*.
> 
> It is something that doubles every 3 days and has a 20 day delay between measures and results.




How quickly it doubles is _not_ an intrinsic property of the virus.  It has to do with our response.  What you were doing before, when, and after a given point matters.

And there is bungling involved.  Because we had people who knew this would be a problem since January.  We had people who knew what we'd need for testing, that we were going to need protective equipment, and ventilators, since that time.  Failure to move on these things months ago constitutes bungling.



> So when you see 2 deaths in a day, you have already locked in 250 deaths/day in 20 days




Not if you are prepared, and testing, and ready to respond.  South Korea did not experience this - they were prepared, and responded appropriately.


----------



## Zardnaar

In the bungling thing I'll put it a different way

Would you rather be in New Zealand/Germany or USA/Italy/Spain right now?

Assuming you had the same lifestyle/job and roughly equivalent resources?


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> How quickly it doubles is _not_ an intrinsic property of the virus.  It has to do with our response.  What you were doing before, when, and after a given point matters.
> 
> And there is bungling involved.  Because we had people who knew this would be a problem since January.  We had people who knew what we'd need for testing, that we were going to need protective equipment, and ventilators, since that time.  Failure to move on these things months ago constitutes bungling.




When most of the world are experiencing or going to experience what we did I don't think you can call it a bungling on our part.



> Not if you are prepared, and testing, and ready to respond.  South Korea did not experience this - they were prepared, and responded appropriately.




South Korea got ahead of the curve just in time.  Another week and it would have been to late for them.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> In the bungling thing I'll put it a different way
> 
> Would you rather be in New Zealand/Germany or USA/Italy/Spain right now?
> 
> Assuming you had the same lifestyle/job and roughly equivalent resources?




Germany will be bad very soon IMO.  Their case count cannot sustain their low deaths much longer.


----------



## FrogReaver

Fauci getting security detail amid safety threats, admirers: reports

All of the U.S. isn't under stay at home orders yet.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Germany will be bad very soon IMO.  Their case count cannot sustain their low deaths much longer.




 Still don't think they're gonna hit Italy and Spain levels.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> Still don't think they're gonna hit Italy and Spain levels.




I hope not.  I have family there with lung problems.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Part of why you’re not seeing a big vector out of American groceries is that MOST of them aren’t really packed.  In the grocery runs I’ve made so far*, there was only one day where it looked like a pre-holiday shopping day.  All of the rest have been normal or even slow.

The shopping clubs like Sam’s and Costco are completely different. Lots of insanity in those.


* small suburb of Dallas; sample size of 4 groceries and a Farmers’ Market


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Part of why you’re not seeing a big vector out of American groceries is that MOST of them aren’t really packed.  In the grocery runs I’ve made so far*, there was only one day where it looked like a pre-holiday shopping day.  All of the rest have been normal or even slow.
> 
> The shopping clubs like Sam’s and Costco are completely different. Lots of insanity in those.
> 
> 
> * small suburb of Dallas; sample size of 4 groceries and a Farmers’ Market




The grocery stores where I am have security guards counting how many are inside. 1 in 1 out.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Not surprisingly, there’s been a big pushback on shelter in place orders (and similar edicts) from religious leaders all across the southern USA.  Several governors have exempted places of worship from those orders, deeming them “essential”.

In contrast, one of the bright lights in Texas’s fight has been Dallas county’s commissioner (not our governor), who- upon receiving similar pushback, reached out to the larger religious communities- churches, synagogues, mosques, etc.- to see if the ones with deeper pockets and more advanced technological infrastructures would help their poorer, smaller brethren.  So far, EACH ONE asked has volunteered their broadcasting/webcasting studios to enable the faithful of all denominations to receive ministry form their faith leaders without endangering themselves and others by compromising social distancing to practice their faith.

I’m hoping other local political and faith leaders can come to similar agreements, and soon.  Otherwise, things are going to get very ugly very quickly down here.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Part of why you’re not seeing a big vector out of American groceries is that MOST of them aren’t really packed.  In the grocery runs I’ve made so far*, there was only one day where it looked like a pre-holiday shopping day.  All of the rest have been normal or even slow.
> 
> The shopping clubs like Sam’s and Costco are completely different. Lots of insanity in those.
> 
> 
> * small suburb of Dallas; sample size of 4 groceries and a Farmers’ Market




The Costco crowds are about to change this week, or just did, as they announced they are reducing the number of people allowed in their stores per membership. So they are about to get a lot less crowded.

And for my personal experience out shopping, one thing I have been extra aware of is listening for people coughing, sneezing, or blowing their nose. And I have realized that compared to just a couple of months ago, when hearing all of that would be common, I do not think I have heard a single cough or sneeze in the past couple of weeks when I have been in a store of any kind. So maybe people with colds, allergies, flu, this virus, are actually not going shopping nearly as much as they would if this virus did not exist.



> Not surprisingly, there’s been a big pushback on shelter in place orders (and similar edicts) from religious leaders all across the southern USA.  Several governors have exempted places of worship from those orders, deeming them “essential”.




Someone else mentioned this too, and without getting political, but the stats on where the virus has hit first are really unbalanced. It is something like 80% of cases are in counties that vote Democratic and 20% in counties that vote Republican. So many on the Right are under the mistaken impression that they are not going to get it as bad as the "big, bad" Liberal parts of the country.


----------



## Hussar

As someone who said that things maybe weren't all that bad, let me just say that I was wrong.  

Here in Japan, it almost seems like everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop.  Honestly, it hasn't been that bad here.  I think we're somewhere in the neighborhood of 4000 cases.  And, we've been dealing with this a bit longer than the West has.  The question seems to be, why not?  Why isn't Japan buried under the disease now?   It's not like we're quarantining or taking any draconian measures.  

Heck, we JUST banned travel into the country today.  And Japanese nationals who enter the country are just now being tested and asked (not told, asked) to self quarantine.  

Is it we just go lucky?  Or is it something about Japanese culture that helps - the whole social distancing thing?  No one knows.  And, because no one knows, everyone is scared.  

Like I said, it's like we're all waiting for the other shoe to drop.


----------



## FrogReaver

Hussar said:


> As someone who said that things maybe weren't all that bad, let me just say that I was wrong.
> 
> Here in Japan, it almost seems like everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop.  Honestly, it hasn't been that bad here.  I think we're somewhere in the neighborhood of 4000 cases.  And, we've been dealing with this a bit longer than the West has.  The question seems to be, why not?  Why isn't Japan buried under the disease now?   It's not like we're quarantining or taking any draconian measures.
> 
> Heck, we JUST banned travel into the country today.  And Japanese nationals who enter the country are just now being tested and asked (not told, asked) to self quarantine.
> 
> Is it we just go lucky?  Or is it something about Japanese culture that helps - the whole social distancing thing?  No one knows.  And, because no one knows, everyone is scared.
> 
> Like I said, it's like we're all waiting for the other shoe to drop.




Covering face with masks?


----------



## Ogre Mage

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not surprisingly, there’s been a big pushback on shelter in place orders (and similar edicts) from religious leaders all across the southern USA.  Several governors have exempted places of worship from those orders, deeming them “essential”.




Stupid of them.  

I am glad I live in the Pacific Northwest.  Leaders respect science and expertise here.


----------



## FrogReaver

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Someone else mentioned this too, and without getting political, but the stats on where the virus has hit first are really unbalanced. It is something like 80% of cases are in counties that vote Democratic and 20% in counties that vote Republican. So many on the Right are under the mistaken impression that they are not going to get it as bad as the "big, bad" Liberal parts of the country.




I don't think it's even anything that major.  It's just hard to act until you start seeing it in your community and the red counties tend to be more rural (less densely populated) and thus haven't noticed much local impact from this yet as it tends to get to those areas slower and spread slower in them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Doh!!!!(I live in Dunedin).









						Locations of all 132 Southern Covid-19 cases revealed
					

The Southern District Health Board has revealed where in the South people have tested positive for Covid-19 and the figures paint a worrying...




					www.odt.co.nz
				




Grew up in Waitaki. Double doh!!!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> So maybe people with colds, allergies, flu, this virus, are actually not going shopping nearly as much as they would if this virus did not exist.



_raises hand_

I have some pretty bad allergies, mostly controlled by injection therapy 2x month.  But my allergist’s office closed in response to the pandemic 3 days before I was scheduled to go in.

(Coincidentally, the same as my scheduled haircut- mah fro gonna get kinda wooly!)

But as the only person in the house under 70yrs old, I am trying to do the bulk of the family’s grocery shopping.

SO FAR, my sniffles, sneezes and coughs have been controlled by OTC meds, so I haven‘t been targeted by any evil eyes.



> It is something like 80% of cases are in counties that vote Democratic and 20% in counties that vote Republican. So many on the Right are under the mistaken impression that they are not going to get it as bad as the "big, bad" Liberal parts of the country.




Part of that is simply that big, densely populated cities tend to skew Democratic, and the Republican-leaning counties tend to have a less concentrated populace.  But I have seen several reports from many parts of small town/rural America showing locals DO understand the issues.  Of course, when your nearest neighbor is a few miles away, and the closest medical facility is a 30 minute drive, the concept of social distancing is borderline nonsensical.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz




----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


>




Basically.  The faster we all get on board with the shutdown the faster it gets over for everyone.


----------



## CleverNickName

FrogReaver said:


> Basically.  The faster we all get on board with the shutdown the faster it gets over for everyone.



But but but the _economy!_  Won't someone think of the poor, defenseless _economy?!_


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> But but but the _economy!_  Won't someone think of the poor, defenseless _economy?!_




 Economy is gonna be shot regardless.


----------



## CleverNickName

Zardnaar said:


> Economy is gonna be shot regardless.



Yep.  But that's the biggest argument you will hear against a shutdown.  "If they close everything, companies will go out of business and workers will lose everything!"

I guess they think that having tens of thousands of people dead and millions more that are too sick to work won't affect the economy at all...


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> Yep.  But that's the biggest argument you will hear against a shutdown.  "If they close everything, companies will go out of business and workers will lose everything!"
> 
> I guess they think that having tens of thousands of people dead and millions more that are too sick to work won't affect the economy at all...




We've got 60% staying at home atm.

We're allowed to be a bit more political on another forum but a lot of the dumber statements are on video.

Wait a few weeks and 9/11 happening every day the attack ads basically write themselves. 

 There's also precedent.









						Herbert Hoover - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

CleverNickName said:


> But but but the _economy!_  Won't someone think of the poor, defenseless _economy?!_




If human beings of US nationality actually behaved in a rational manner, this would not be as bad right now. But no, the states that are prime Spring Break locations continued to let all those students in just to make money off them, instead of say no Spring Break here. Now there are who knows how many sick college kids out there who took it home and spread it to family and friends. There are people who should be charged with manslaughter if they passed it on and someone died from their reckless behavior. It happens with other illnesses and diseases with no cure that cause death, so this should too.


----------



## Zardnaar

13 states still not locked down afaik.

Gonna be worse than Italy X5 IMHO.

Italy locked down sooner, better health system, had help from the EU etc.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

And we’re starting to see the other dominoes fall:








						NYC paramedics are stretched so thin by the coronavirus they're being told to leave cardiac-arrest sufferers at home if they can't get a pulse at the scene
					

The mandate was handed down on Tuesday to deal with the influx of 911 calls that paramedics are receiving during the coronavirus outbreak.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




This is one aspect of triage.  People who might be saved under normal circumstances will die because the resources of the hospitals are already tied up saving others.


----------



## Zardnaar

Italy 2.0









						Coronavirus: The young doctors being asked to play god
					

A harrowing account from a New York hospital which has become the epicentre of the epicentre.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> As someone who said that things maybe weren't all that bad, let me just say that I was wrong.
> 
> Here in Japan, it almost seems like everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop.  Honestly, it hasn't been that bad here.  I think we're somewhere in the neighborhood of 4000 cases.  And, we've been dealing with this a bit longer than the West has.  The question seems to be, why not?  Why isn't Japan buried under the disease now?   It's not like we're quarantining or taking any draconian measures.
> 
> Heck, we JUST banned travel into the country today.  And Japanese nationals who enter the country are just now being tested and asked (not told, asked) to self quarantine.
> 
> Is it we just go lucky?  Or is it something about Japanese culture that helps - the whole social distancing thing?  No one knows.  And, because no one knows, everyone is scared.
> 
> Like I said, it's like we're all waiting for the other shoe to drop.




I suspect the moderate social distancing in Japan was more effective than it was in the USA, probably due to the different levels of collectivism vs individualism in the two cultures.  Both societies had their skeptics and scofflaws, but it’s a safe bet there were more of them per capita here.


----------



## Imaculata

FrogReaver said:


> Germany will be bad very soon IMO.  Their case count cannot sustain their low deaths much longer.




Not to play armchair doctor, but I think Germany simply has a high count because they started testing for it really early. The more plentiful and accurate your testing, the more confirmed cases you'll have. But early detection goes along way to preventing further spread, and preventing deaths.

That said, I am really worried for the US, since they lack testing kits, so the number of infections is probably way higher than the news reports. And as for their estimated number of deaths... I fear that they may have to add an extra zero to that number.


----------



## Hussar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I suspect the moderate social distancing in Japan was more effective than it was in the USA, probably due to the different levels of collectivism vs individualism in the two cultures.  Both societies had their skeptics and scofflaws, but it’s a safe bet there were more of them per capita here.




On the flipside though, we've got a population density that's practically insane.  Trains in Tokyo are stile jammed to the rafters during rush hour.  O.O


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> I don't think it's even anything that major.  It's just hard to act until you start seeing it in your community and the red counties tend to be more rural (less densely populated) and thus haven't noticed much local impact from this yet as it tends to get to those areas slower and spread slower in them.




Okay, so, the problem with that is that once folks start "seeing it in their community" it is far, far too late.  

My office went to full "working from home" status back on March 13th.  At the time, Massachusetts had a total of 123 known cases, and we were adding them at the rate of 15 per day.  The Greater Boston area is nearly 5 million people.  Nobody was "seeing" the impact of the virus at the time.  The cases were 0.003% of the population - nobody knew anyone or had it, or even knew someone who knew someone.  

Human intuition on when to act _stinks_ for things that are not immediate physical threats.  That is why we have put people in place who specialize in measuring the risks such issues raise.  To then ignore those people is... really not smart. 

I don't care if it is hard.  We are the result of millions of years of evolution selecting for being smart.  It is time to put on the big-person pants and act like it.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

I noticed a distinct attitude shift out here in rural west Texas when the president announced the first "15 days" initiative or whatever it was in mid March. A lot of folks stopped the "overreaction" or "hoax" nonsense, and started taking the pandemic more seriously. Of course, the political grumbling continues, but _in practice_ most everything is now either shut down or operating at reduced levels per official recommendations, even including churches.

It's pretty clear to me that if guidance had come from the top earlier, much of this could have been mitigated.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Another chapter in the book of ineptitude derived from nepotism:








						Jared Kushner Ripped For Saying 'Our Stockpile' Isn't Meant For States To Use
					

“The notion of the federal stockpile was it’s supposed to be our stockpile. It’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use.”




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Theo R Cwithin said:


> It's pretty clear to me that if guidance had come from the top earlier, much of this could have been mitigated.



The world is getting a master class in the value of good leadership- and what it really looks like- right now.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> On the flipside though, we've got a population density that's practically insane.  Trains in Tokyo are stile jammed to the rafters during rush hour.  O.O



True, same as NYC.

But if those Japanese riders have otherwise been practicing social distancing and good hygiene, they’re probably far less at risk than the Americans who- honestly- haven’t been, and are interspersed with a bigger percentage of spring breakers, plague party attendees, covid-19 conspiracists, die-hard antigovernmentalists, and the poor working schmoes who simply haven’t been tested yet and are going to work sick because they can’t afford anything- healthcare included- if they don’t.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> Okay, so, the problem with that is that once folks start "seeing it in their community" it is far, far too late.
> 
> My office went to full "working from home" status back on March 13th.  At the time, Massachusetts had a total of 123 known cases, and we were adding them at the rate of 15 per day.  The Greater Boston area is nearly 5 million people.  Nobody was "seeing" the impact of the virus at the time.  The cases were 0.003% of the population - nobody knew anyone or had it, or even knew someone who knew someone.
> 
> Human intuition on when to act _stinks_ for things that are not immediate physical threats.  That is why we have put people in place who specialize in measuring the risks such issues raise.  To then ignore those people is... really not smart.
> 
> I don't care if it is hard.  We are the result of millions of years of evolution selecting for being smart.  It is time to put on the big-person pants and act like it.




I don’t disagree it’s just that acting is an individual decision more than a governmental one. The people have to buy into there being a need to act. That takes visible impact


----------



## Azzy

Zardnaar said:


> In the bungling thing I'll put it a different way
> 
> Would you rather be in New Zealand/Germany or USA/Italy/Spain right now?
> 
> Assuming you had the same lifestyle/job and roughly equivalent resources?



No contest.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Things aren’t looking good for the quinine-related antimalarial drugs right now as a Covid-19 treatment.








						A small trial finds that hydroxychloroquine is not effective for treating coronavirus
					

On Saturday the Food and Drug Administration approved the use of two antimalarial drugs, hydroxychloroquine and a related medication, chloroquine, for emergency use to treat COVID-19. The drugs were touted by President Trump as a “game changer” for COVID-19. However, a study just published in a...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

We didn't lock down as fast as some authoritarian regimes but moved faster than most.








						Coronavirus: How hard, how early? The numbers behind New Zealand's quick lockdown
					

The Government has touted its efforts in combating the coronavirus as world-leading. An analysis show that's true - for the most part.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Icelandic researchers are confirming that a high percentage of the affected are asymptomatic, which, of course, helps Covid-19 spread.  They’ve tested 5% of their population and expect to get to @13% before the pandemic starts receding.









						Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms | CNN
					

There's a lot about Iceland that other countries could envy: Its spectacular natural surroundings, its place among the world's happiest countries, and, now, its large-scale testing for the novel coronavirus, which could influence how the world understands the outbreak.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## NotAYakk

I've heard a claim that while low and asymptomatic people are half as contagious, they are 80% of the spread, because they don't isolate as well as people who are sick.

Hence; we need to test everyone, so asymptomatic people self isolate better.


----------



## Zardnaar

The advice we got here. Self isolate regardless. Treat yourself as if you already have Covid.


----------



## FrogReaver

NotAYakk said:


> I've heard a claim that while low and asymptomatic people are half as contagious, they are 80% of the spread, because they don't isolate as well as people who are sick.
> 
> Hence; we need to test everyone, so asymptomatic people self isolate better.




Which is why this thing is so hard to stop.  More testing doesn't solve that though.  100% testing could - but that's not realistic.  Best option seems to be for everyone to isolate as @Zardnaar said.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> The advice we got here. Self isolate regardless. Treat yourself as if you already have Corvid.



Would a grocery store worker go to work if she had Covid?

R0 grows with the highest contact subpopulation.


----------



## FrogReaver

NotAYakk said:


> Would a grocery store worker go to work if she had Covid?
> 
> R0 grows with the highest contact subpopulation.




Which implies that we need to test and retest those that actually are essential to be around many people while everyone else self isolates.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> Would a grocery store worker go to work if she had Covid?
> 
> R0 grows with the highest contact subpopulation.




They've shut worksites down with Corvid.

That includes food production.

In other cases even if you can ship something they're not allowed to deliver it.

I wasn't joking when I said I'm living in a police state Can't leave, can't really travel. Can't buy most things.

Cops are breaking up beach visits, tourism spots, people self isolating on boats or using jetskis also getting pinged.

Reason being if you're at the beach and something goes wrong you will want to use emergency services.

They closed big box retail.

Here's your option really.

Stay at home.
Go to buy essentials
Go to work if you're in essential services
Walk around the block.

You can only travel by air if you're essential, 95% of domestic air routes are gone.

You're not even supposed to drive to small towns etc. Some tribal areas have blocked the roads into their towns and the cops are backing them since you're not supposed to be traveling anyway.

Tourists were bitching and moaning but they deported a few and have facilities to put you if they can't deport.

Stay where you are or be bored in a motel room with the boys in blue checking on you.

Only people who can enter the country are returning citizens and dependents plus essential personal. Only people who can leave are a handful of citizens whose embassys have organized flights. That's basically Germans and any country who has convinced the Germans to let their citizens share the flights.

They have expanded the list if what's essential you can buy online. For a few days you couldn't buy clothing, appliances, or anything that's not good and could be bought at supermarket or pharmacy.

Wife's in freight they weren't allowed to deliver it either.


----------



## UngainlyTitan

FrogReaver said:


> Which is why this thing is so hard to stop.  More testing doesn't solve that though.  100% testing could - but that's not realistic.  Best option seems to be for everyone to isolate as @Zardnaar said.



I would only see 100% testing possible id there was a cheap quick pretest that could be bought over the counter. Like a pregnancy kit. Spit into tube, add reagent and insert colour strip. With low false negatives. If positive contact health service for proper/confirmatory test. This would also require universal healthcare or at least a testing service. 
As a society in the long term, turning up to work sick or with the sniffles, etc. should not longer be acceptable.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Which is why this thing is so hard to stop.  More testing doesn't solve that though.  100% testing could - but that's not realistic.  Best option seems to be for everyone to isolate as @Zardnaar said.



Paraphrasing Arthur Conan Doyle, once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how impractical, must be the plan.  We may not be able to hit 100% testing, but we can certainly make it a goal.  I’m predicting that Covina-19 testing regimes will go hand in hand with vaccination policies...probably with far fewer exemptions.


----------



## Zardnaar

They're not gonna be able to test everyone anytime soon.

There's going to be shortages if a lot of things worldwide. Doesn't matter if intentions are good.

It's like hand sanitizer they can't make enough of it fast enough.

In other cases countries are banning the export of whatever while others are intercepting each other's supplies.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Zardnaar said:


> The advice we got here. Self isolate regardless. Treat yourself as if you already have Covid.




I think where I am, British Columbia (Canada), is dealing with this exactly the same as New Zealand. We seem to be seeing decent results, relative to a lot of places, including other Canadian provinces, in spite of not having anywhere near enough testing going on. (A shame, but I think we're doing all that we can - we just don't have enough tests.)


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> I think where I am, British Columbia (Canada), is dealing with this exactly the same as New Zealand. We seem to be seeing decent results, relative to a lot of places, including other Canadian provinces, in spite of not having anywhere near enough testing going on. (A shame, but I think we're doing all that we can - we just don't have enough tests.)




 Culturally we resemble the Australians the most. Other ways we're the Canadians of the South Pacific.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> Canadians of the South Pacific




I‘d watch that show.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I‘d watch that show.




 I think they made it.

 Screened as a kid. 


 Canadian Sci Fi is very good IMHO.


----------



## NotAYakk

Hand Sanitizer is now being manufactured by piles of local distilleries.  We have multiple companies building testing kits, including some in town.  PPE is being built in-country as well.

One option is to delay long enough that the countries who *are* bootstrapping their way out of it come help once they are done locally.

Another is to start bootstrapping.

Because international trade in the key stuff to get out of this mess is being restricted.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Zardnaar said:


> Culturally we resemble the Australians the most. Other ways we're the Canadians of the South Pacific.




I actually know quite a few New Zealanders. Ironically, I met most of them in Japan. I've never been to NZ, but I'd love to go.

Also, little known fact: Before Peter Jackson managed to get Lord of the Rings filmed in New Zealand, they were looking at British Columbia - another good choice for so much variety of plains/mountains/forests/etc  (And a plethora of professional film crews). The main thing going for NZ over BC (aside from PJ's patriotism) was that all the terrain types are a lot closer together in NZ. (BC is a lot bigger)... Or so I've read.


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> I actually know quite a few New Zealanders. Ironically, I met most of them in Japan. I've never been to NZ, but I'd love to go.
> 
> Also, little known fact: Before Peter Jackson managed to get Lord of the Rings filmed in New Zealand, they were looking at British Columbia - another good choice for so much variety of plains/mountains/forests/etc  (And a plethora of professional film crews). The main thing going for NZ over BC (aside from PJ's patriotism) was that all the terrain types are a lot closer together in NZ. (BC is a lot bigger)... Or so I've read.




 Pretty much. 

This beach is 15 mins from my house.





 5 minutes from the beach.






I was born in "Rohan" it's a 2 hour drive away. 

 Two hours in another direction petrified Forest and waterfalls in native bush. 

 Two hours other direction it's a microclimate, vineyards, 2-3km high mountains.


----------



## ad_hoc

The province of Ontario (Canada) released their models today.

By April 30th they expect 1600 deaths if social distancing measures are followed. If social distancing measures were not put into place that would be 6000.

By the end of the pandemic 3000 to 15000 people are expected to die due to COVID 19. If social distancing measures were not taken that number would be 100 000.


----------



## Hussar

NotAYakk said:


> I've heard a claim that while low and asymptomatic people are half as contagious, they are 80% of the spread, because they don't isolate as well as people who are sick.
> 
> Hence; we need to test everyone, so asymptomatic people self isolate better.




Or be like the other Mr. Jackson and STAY THE F#$K at HOME!


----------



## Zardnaar

We're doing great here in our South Pacific police state.

New housing and food policies announced for next year.

Artists impression.







						Culture of New Zealand - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




The economy is doing great. Nothing to worry about.

 I've got 15 good recipes for PHB and at least a dozen PHB's.


----------



## ad_hoc

This site has updated its data to include tests per million population.









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,898,689 Cases and 2,713,580 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Zardnaar

Looks like NZ might "beat" it.

We passed 1000 cases but growth is linear not quadratic.

Only 1 death so far. The government projected 4000 cases we have 1000.

Obviously we've missed some but ICUs aren't piling up either.

They're talking about wiping it out.

Small population but I've been looking at some of the US states with similar populations or dividing other nations totals and we're looking great by comparison.

Cautiously optimistic.

Swimming, boating, tramping now banned, PM called rule breakers idiots and the "Grace period" is up, velvet glove is picking up the big stick for rule breakers.

Saint Patrick day party spread mumps lol.

 Warm day, went into the yard and had the pussycats join us.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A few scientists discussing the probability that Covid-19 had infected humans before the Wuhan outbreak:


----------



## Zardnaar

Willing to pay cold hard TP. What do you have?


----------



## NotAYakk

That is a crappy offer.


----------



## rgoodbb

Zardnaar said:


> Willing to pay cold hard TP. What do you have?
> 
> View attachment 120495



Four sheets to the wind eh?


----------



## Zardnaar

rgoodbb said:


> Four sheets to the wind eh?




 I has more. Bunkered down in my toilet paper fort in my secret lair.


----------



## Hussar

When my folks returned home, the tenants that they sublet their home to had left then a small mountain of toilet paper.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> When my folks returned home, the tenants that they sublet their home to had left then a small mountain of toilet paper.




I built a fort. Couldn't find my bow so gonna throw RPG books.


In my mind's eye.




What I got.





Star forts out except GI Joe scale.

Found an old VCR and original Xbox. Both would kill you if used in an ingenious trap.

 The 5E books are crap they're to fragile.  1E sewn spines are good for multiple beatings though

 No sharks with laser beams, deploying the guard beasts. Anti looter tek.









Got a pretty good moat, others call it the Pacific Ocean.


----------



## rgoodbb

When we run out of TP sheets there are always character sheets. We must have an endless supply of them.

It'll hurt but I'm sure we can suck it up.

Edit. Just realised what I wrote there....That would be impressive but....Ouch!


----------



## megamania

In some ways I am lucky.  I have an extended family all under the same roof and most play DnD.  So we are starting a "Virus" campaign.   A short two month run.

Bad news......

Printer is broken and we don't know if Staples is considered an "essential" store.    Hard  to run modern games on hand written notes.


----------



## ad_hoc

megamania said:


> In some ways I am lucky.  I have an extended family all under the same roof and most play DnD.  So we are starting a "Virus" campaign.   A short two month run.
> 
> Bad news......
> 
> Printer is broken and we don't know if Staples is considered an "essential" store.    Hard  to run modern games on hand written notes.




I hope it isn't!

And even if it was open best to stay home anyway.


----------



## MarkB

megamania said:


> In some ways I am lucky.  I have an extended family all under the same roof and most play DnD.  So we are starting a "Virus" campaign.   A short two month run.
> 
> Bad news......
> 
> Printer is broken and we don't know if Staples is considered an "essential" store.    Hard  to run modern games on hand written notes.



I use Google Docs for most of my gaming note-keeping these days. Works well if you have a tablet and is reasonably practical with a smartphone.


----------



## Umbran

megamania said:


> Printer is broken and we don't know if Staples is considered an "essential" store.    Hard  to run modern games on hand written notes.




"Modern games".  I don't know what that means, or why it _requires_ printing.  But...

1) I don't know your financial situation, but you can get a good, durable laser printer for around $100, and Staples, Officemax, and Amazon are certainly still delivering.

2) The core of RPGs was devised before everyone had a computer, much less a printer.  You can embrace the essence.


----------



## megamania

Run  mainly 3.5 so notes and page references would be huge


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Umbran said:


> 2) The core of RPGs was devised before everyone had a computer, much less a printer.  You can embrace the essence.




Ha, I remember trying to create my own character sheets on a manual typewriter. And then on a PC with dot-matrix printer in the early 80's. Getting those columns and rows to line up properly was a pain.  But I finally gave up and bought one of those packs of blank 1st Ed AD&D character sheets and made copies at the library.


----------



## The Green Hermit

ad_hoc said:


> I hope it isn't!
> 
> And even if it was open best to stay home anyway.




It is, because of how many people have to work from home.


----------



## Umbran

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Ha, I remember trying to create my own character sheets on a manual typewriter. And then on a PC with dot-matrix printer in the early 80's. Getting those columns and rows to line up properly was a pain.  But I finally gave up and bought one of those packs of blank 1st Ed AD&D character sheets and made copies at the library.




I just wrote sheets by hand.  A sheet of college ruled paper did me just fine.


----------



## Zardnaar

megamania said:


> In some ways I am lucky.  I have an extended family all under the same roof and most play DnD.  So we are starting a "Virus" campaign.   A short two month run.
> 
> Bad news......
> 
> Printer is broken and we don't know if Staples is considered an "essential" store.    Hard  to run modern games on hand written notes.




 You can. Not sure how much toner us in my printer but I can't get more atm.


----------



## Azzy

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Ha, I remember trying to create my own character sheets on a manual typewriter. And then on a PC with dot-matrix printer in the early 80's. Getting those columns and rows to line up properly was a pain.  But I finally gave up and bought one of those packs of blank 1st Ed AD&D character sheets and made copies at the library.



Heh. I remember my old 8-pin dot matrix printer. I was so stoked when I got a 24-pin dot matrix. Yeah, I made my own character sheets with Wordperfect 5.1 for DOS way back when.


----------



## tomBitonti

NotAYakk said:


> This year 20 million more people where born than died.  31+29+30 days is 90 days, so 222 thousand per day.
> 
> Yesterday, for which we have complete stats, there where 3,204 deaths.  As noted above, this may be an undercount.
> 
> Over the past week, deaths have grown from *14,640* to *34,065*, a rate of 12.8% per day.   The deaths per day has also been growing at roughly that rate.
> 
> 3204 * 1.128^X = 222,000 is the number of days, at this rate, before Covid-19 causes deaths to overtake births for a day.  Solving for X we get ln(69)/ln(1.28) or 18 days.
> 
> So at the current rate of growth, on April 17th more people will die than are born.  Definitely for the first time since WW2, and if not that since the 1918 pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> There are many ways the rates can change.  Social isolation may prove effective, reducing the curve from larger areas.  New outbreaks may be preempted with early response.
> 
> But the 13% per day already includes the under control Wuhan deaths, and the relatively under control Seattle, Italy, etc.  There are a number of places where it is getting out of control (NY, France, Spain, UK) and there are weeks of growth left, plus a myriad of under tested places where an epidemic could be exploding.
> 
> A week ago, the USA looked good with a declining growth rate in deaths; then NYC exploded and overtook Seattle.  That wasn't a surprise; that was expected to happen.  If not NYC, then somewhere else.
> 
> Every week we should expect an exponentially increasing number of new hotspots in the USA and around the world, as pandemics have *local* exponential epidemics, and a *global* exponential number of epidemics.




That’s a somber statistic.

Although, were there no events in WWII which match this statistic?

Thanks,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## ad_hoc

New York State now has over twice as many confirmed cases per capita as Italy or Spain. And the same actual number of cases.

Deaths per capita in New York State are also approaching Italy and Spain and will surpass them soon.

New Jersey and Louisiana also both have more cases per capita than Italy or Spain.


----------



## ad_hoc

18 States have not issued stay at home orders and 19 states have not closed non-essential businesses.

Meanwhile in Canada we have shut everything down until at least July and we don't have it nearly as bad.


----------



## NotAYakk

I cried for NYC a week ago.  When I did math.

It is going to get worse.  This is still preamble.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

megamania said:


> In some ways I am lucky.  I have an extended family all under the same roof and most play DnD.  So we are starting a "Virus" campaign.   A short two month run.
> 
> Bad news......
> 
> Printer is broken and we don't know if Staples is considered an "essential" store.    Hard  to run modern games on hand written notes.



Just a thought...instead of doing handouts, is there a way for you to do the deliverables on a computer and email/text them to your players?


----------



## FitzTheRuke

NotAYakk said:


> I cried for NYC a week ago.  When I did math.
> It is going to get worse.  This is still preamble.




I love NYC and its people... there's just something about it. I'm from another country and the other coast, and on top of that, I'm not religious... But I will pray for New York.


----------



## Zardnaar

New Yorks the opening act.

 Wait for it to hit state capitals that don't have the facilities NY has. 

Or the retirement community in Florida.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Curveball!








						Tiger at NYC's Bronx Zoo tests positive for coronavirus
					

A tiger at the Bronx Zoo has tested positive for the new coronavirus, in what is believed to be the first known infection in an animal in the U.S. or a tiger anywhere, federal officials and the zoo said Sunday. The 4-year-old Malayan tiger named Nadia, and six other tigers and lions that have...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## megamania

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Just a thought...instead of doing handouts, is there a way for you to do the deliverables on a computer and email/text them to your players?




All family members with few computers within the house.  We're gonna do the work and hope for the best.


----------



## MarkB

megamania said:


> All family members with few computers within the house.  We're gonna do the work and hope for the best.



What about smartphones? Plenty of ways you can send documents to peoples' phones.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Curveball!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tiger at NYC's Bronx Zoo tests positive for coronavirus
> 
> 
> A tiger at the Bronx Zoo has tested positive for the new coronavirus, in what is believed to be the first known infection in an animal in the U.S. or a tiger anywhere, federal officials and the zoo said Sunday. The 4-year-old Malayan tiger named Nadia, and six other tigers and lions that have...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




Yes, that makes a couple of dogs, maybe a couple of cats, and those tigers as documented cases of humans giving it to animals, but no cases of animals giving it back.


----------



## FrogReaver

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Yes, that makes a couple of dogs, maybe a couple of cats, and those tigers as documented cases of humans giving it to animals, but no cases of animals giving it back.




And I was just taken to task a few days ago citing an article where a cat got it.  @Umbran where is my apology


----------



## Zardnaar

Another 67 cases today, yesterday was 80 something. 

 Growth has between 50-80 most days. No real change.


----------



## CleverNickName

megamania said:


> In some ways I am lucky.  I have an extended family all under the same roof and most play DnD.  So we are starting a "Virus" campaign.   A short two month run.
> 
> Bad news......
> 
> Printer is broken and we don't know if Staples is considered an "essential" store.    Hard  to run modern games on hand written notes.



Instead of a modern D&D game and no printer, it might be easier to go with a classic and some graph paper.  A two-month run is plenty of time to run everyone through The Isle of Dread, or to finish up the Desert Nomads series.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> And I was just taken to task a few days ago citing an article where a cat got it.  @Umbran where is my apology



At the time, the best evidence supported Umbran’s (and my) position.  Those were pets, the samples were not taken the same way as from humans, and the pets were- as I recall, asymptomatic.  Strongest conclusion you could make was that the virus had been found ON them, not IN them,

This is different.  These were not pets routinely handled with close human contact.  And they exhibited symptoms.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> At the time, the best evidence supported Umbran’s (and my) position.  Those were pets, the samples were not taken the same way as from humans, and the pets were- as I recall, asymptomatic.  Strongest conclusion you could make was that the virus had been found ON them, not IN them,
> 
> This is different.  These were not pets routinely handled with close human contact.  And they exhibited symptoms.




Ummmm… Why do you think those people had their pets tested IF they weren't displaying symptoms?

Hint - the best conclusion is that the pets were displaying symptoms.


----------



## FrogReaver

Some potential good news for the U.S.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Ummmm… Why do you think those people had their pets tested IF they weren't displaying symptoms?
> 
> Hint - the best conclusion is that the pets were displaying symptoms.





> Though the shepherd tested positive for the virus, no such result was obtained from the mixed-breed dog, and “neither dog has shown any signs of disease,” the AFCD said, adding it will continue to monitor both dogs and conduct repeated tests on the animals.
> 
> The new case comes after an elderly 17-year-old Pomeranian, which had tested “weak positive” during repeated tests for the virus, died two days after it was released from quarantine disease-free. The AFCD said the dog’s owner wasn’t willing to allow an autopsy to determine the cause of death.
> 
> 
> The Hong Kong animal-welfare authority stressed that there is currently no evidence that pets can be a source of the virus or that they can get sick from it. “Under no circumstances should [owners] abandon their pets,” it said.











						Second dog tests positive for coronavirus as owners warned not to abandon pets
					

A German shepherd pet dog in Hong Kong has repeatedly tested positive for the Covid-19 virus after its owner was confirmed as being infected, authorities said.




					www.marketwatch.com
				




IOW, the owners had symptoms, and were unclear as to whether their pets- asymptomatic but always in close proximity- were at risk.  Occam’s Razor.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Second dog tests positive for coronavirus as owners warned not to abandon pets
> 
> 
> A German shepherd pet dog in Hong Kong has repeatedly tested positive for the Covid-19 virus after its owner was confirmed as being infected, authorities said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.marketwatch.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> IOW, the owners had symptoms, and were unclear as to whether their pets- asymptomatic but always in close proximity- were at risk.  Occam’s Razor.




Nice but the case that brought my attention to the matter was one of a cat not in China.


----------



## FrogReaver

@Dannyalcatraz I believe this was the story I had cited. 

Cat in Belgium first known to test positive for coronavirus: report

It does mention the cat showing symptoms.

Care to apologize now?


----------



## Zardnaar

. I haz company.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Nice but the case that brought my attention to the matter was one of a cat not in China.



In the Belgian pet cat case, the feline WAS sick, but it is still unclear as to whether Covid-19 was the cause.  According to the article, while they _believe _the cat might have had covid-19, the veterinarians are still awaiting lab results to see whether the cat had antibodies.



> The samples were collected and sent to the lab by the owner, and a veterinarian has yet to examine the cat. The cat recovered after nine days, and once it’s released from quarantine, researchers will run a blood test for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, which would provide more concrete proof of an infection. Those results are expected in about a week.




Note the complicating the issue: the fecal sample was not obtained by the veterinarians, but was collected and sent in by the owner- there is no way to determine if that owner contaminated the samples in collecting them.









						A cat appears to have caught the coronavirus, but it’s complicated
					

While a cat in Belgium seems to be the first feline infected with SARS-CoV-2, it’s still unclear how susceptible pets are to the disease.




					www.sciencenews.org
				




So, no.  No apology.  There is currently no _proof_ the Belgian cat got Covid-19 from its owner and got sick.

Nor will there ever be one, even if the lab reports the cat did.  As I said, the best science at the time indicated low to nonexistent probability of human to feline transmission. 

If the tests prove the cat DID have Covid-19, and probably got it from its owner, I can admit that the science of the time was incorrect.  But I’m not _apologizing_ for following the science.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In the Belgian pet cat case, the feline WAS sick, but it is still unclear as to whether Covid-19 was the cause.  According to the article, while they _believe _the cat might have had covid-19, the veterinarians are still awaiting lab results to see whether the cat had antibodies.
> 
> 
> 
> Note the complicating the issue: the fecal sample was not obtained by the veterinarians, but was collected and sent in by the owner- there is no way to determine if that owner contaminated the samples in collecting them.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A cat appears to have caught the coronavirus, but it’s complicated
> 
> 
> While a cat in Belgium seems to be the first feline infected with SARS-CoV-2, it’s still unclear how susceptible pets are to the disease.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.sciencenews.org




I just love when people can't even stay consistent with their own stories in a 30 minute timeframe...

You originally stated:



> At the time, the best evidence supported Umbran’s (and my) position.  Those were pets, the samples were not taken the same way as from humans, and *the pets were- as I recall, asymptomatic*.  Strongest conclusion you could make was that the virus had been found ON them, not IN them,




You see - when the pets have symptoms consistent with the virus and test positive for it (regardless of how the sample was obtained) then the best information we have is that it can infect pets.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> I just love when people can't even stay consistent with their own stories in a 30 minute timeframe...
> 
> You originally stated:
> 
> 
> 
> You see - when the pets have symptoms consistent with the virus and test positive for it (regardless of how the sample was obtained) then the best information we have is that it can infect pets.




There is no inconsistency.

The article I quoted about the dogs stated they were asymptomatic.  That’s what I looked at.  THEN you asked about the Belgian cat, which I had not looked at at all.

An additional claim was made, and I had to look again.

Upon reading about the cat, it had symptoms, but they were not unique to Covid-19.

So, out of 4 pets, _only one_ showed symptoms.  In all four cases, the owners had Covid-19.  One of four Vs four of four.  Occam’s Razor,


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> So, no.  No apology.  There is currently no _proof_ the Belgian cat got Covid-19 from its owner and got sick.
> 
> Nor will there ever be one, even if the lab reports the cat did.  As I said, the best science at the time indicated low to nonexistent probability of human to feline transmission.
> 
> If the tests prove the cat DID have Covid-19, and probably got it from its owner, I can admit that the science of the time was incorrect.  But I’m not _apologizing_ for following the science.




You aren't following the science though.  The science says cat got sick with coronavirus symptoms.  Cat tested positive.  That test could have been cross contaminated but it still doesn't rule out the symptoms.  Thus, the scientific approach would have been a belief that it's likely that cats can get coronavirus but we need more results to confirm.

That's what the science of the moment told us.  Instead the reaction you gave was, "we can't believe this is possible till we are 100% certain".  That's not following science - that's using a ridiculous criteria to silence any attempted talk about what the actual science was showing.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Upon reading about the cat, it had symptoms, but they were not unique to Covi—19.
> 
> So, out of 4 pets, _only one_ showed symptoms.  In all four cases, the owners had Covid-19.  One of four Vs four of four.  Occam’s Razor,




You realize that there are no symptoms unique to Covid-19


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Nor will there ever be one, even if the lab reports the cat did.  As I said, the best science at the time indicated low to nonexistent probability of human to feline transmission.




Sure.  But the point that was made to me at the time wasn't whether it was a potentially low probability.  It was that there was absolutely no probability of it at all - despite the evidence.


----------



## Zardnaar

Someone's crunched the numbers here.

 Can't sustain it long term, more people have Committed suicide than the virus has killed.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> Someone's crunched the numbers here.
> 
> Can't sustain it long term, more people have Committed suicide than the virus has killed.




Where is here?


----------



## CleverNickName

I sort of lost track there for a bit.  We're arguing about a sick cat in Italy?


----------



## FrogReaver

CleverNickName said:


> I sort of lost track there for a bit.  We're arguing about a sick cat in Italy?




Belgium, get it right!


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Where is here?




 NZ. 
 The hope is we wipe it out. But we might be screwed more long term.


----------



## Eltab

Tangent:


tomBitonti said:


> Although, were there no events in WWII which match this statistic?



According to Jared Diamond (famous for _Guns Germs and Steel_) in _The Day Before Yesterday_, modern warfare has higher total-casualty figures but lower death-percentage rates.  This is a function of both higher populations and densities, and of cultural features like the Rules of War.
So, it is forbidden to bomb cities (civilians), thereby protecting a high percentage of the population from harm.  But once somebody starts doing it, hundreds of thousands or even millions of people are in the way to get hurt.

More On-Topic:
I would look at WWI statistics.  Besides the 1918 influenza epidemic, the daily bloodletting of the trenches was enough to leave France, Britain, and Germany manpower-starved a generation later.  That attrition rate spiked during events like the Battle of the Somme which cost Britain 100,000 casualties on the first day alone, or the months-long Battle of Verdun which cost France and Germany 1,000,000 casualties each.


----------



## CleverNickName

FrogReaver said:


> Belgium, get it right!



I stand corrected. 

Well, let me know how it ends.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> Someone's crunched the numbers here.
> 
> Can't sustain it long term, more people have Committed suicide than the virus has killed.



Suicide does not increase in numbers exponentially.

You can surrender whenever you want.  Start digging graves, and accept 1%-8% mortality and twice that with crippled lung function for life (estimates based on heath care system failure).

More data will come.  There are nations and regions who will let it burn, and you can see how hot it actually gets.

You can always surrender.  But once you do, you cannot go back to fighting.

In the USA, Covid passed every cause of death except cancer and heart disease.  It showed every indication it would keep blowing past those two; currently, their biggest city is silent except the constant ambulance sirens as death walks its streets.


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> New Yorks the opening act.
> 
> Wait for it to hit state capitals that don't have the facilities NY has.
> 
> Or the retirement community in Florida.



In Indiana, Indianapolis has more cases than the other 91 counties combined.  That will eventually change because we have urban sprawl from Chicago and Cincinnati in our state boundaries.  Almost all rural counties are reporting 1 or single-digits, which leads to the thought that we should be 100% testing smaller cities and letting the people that already recovered from a bout or haven't got it yet, get back to work making the gear for the health care workers, current patients, and contagious carriers we know are out there but nobody is trying to find.


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> In Indiana, Indianapolis has more cases than the other 91 counties combined.  That will eventually change because we have urban sprawl from Chicago and Cincinnati in our state boundaries.  Almost all rural counties are reporting 1 or single-digits, which leads to the thought that we should be 100% testing smaller cities and letting the people that already recovered from a bout or haven't got it yet, get back to work making the gear for the health care workers, current patients, and contagious carriers we know are out there but nobody is trying to find.




 Someone's gonna crunch the numbers. There will be people dying due to this later due to a lack of resources. 

 A lot of the economic stuff would be torpedoed anyway.  There's gonna be an uptick in all the negative stats that indirectly kill people for years to come. 

 No one's gonna know the costs yet so see what happens.


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> In Indiana, Indianapolis has more cases than the other 91 counties combined.  That will eventually change because we have urban sprawl from Chicago and Cincinnati in our state boundaries.  Almost all rural counties are reporting 1 or single-digits, which leads to the thought that we should be 100% testing smaller cities and letting the people that already recovered from a bout or haven't got it yet, get back to work making the gear for the health care workers, current patients, and contagious carriers we know are out there but nobody is trying to find.




 Yeah the article I read was looking at Alabama and Florida iirc.


----------



## FrogReaver

NotAYakk said:


> Suicide does not increase in numbers exponentially.
> 
> You can surrender whenever you want.  Start digging graves, and accept 1%-8% mortality and twice that with crippled lung function for life (estimates based on heath care system failure).
> 
> More data will come.  There are nations and regions who will let it burn, and you can see how hot it actually gets.
> 
> You can always surrender.  But once you do, you cannot go back to fighting.
> 
> In the USA, Covid passed every cause of death except cancer and heart disease.  It showed every indication it would keep blowing past those two; currently, their biggest city is silent except the constant ambulance sirens as death walks its streets.




My U.S. prediction is that we will race back to BAU at the end of May and then have another outbreak start.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> My U.S. prediction is that we will race back to BAU at the end of May and then have another outbreak start.




My prediction is our borders are closed until there's a vaccine or it runs it's course and burns out worldwide.









						'Curve flattening' and lockdown must succeed to make economic price worthwhile: ASB
					

"You've potentially got the Government raising $100 billion of debt. That's a huge burden that future generations are going to carry," top economist warns.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 On the plus side we can afford to borrow lots.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> You aren't following the science though.  The science says cat got sick with coronavirus symptoms.  Cat tested positive.  That test could have been cross contaminated but it still doesn't rule out the symptoms.  Thus, the scientific approach would have been a belief that it's likely that cats can get coronavirus but we need more results to confirm.
> 
> That's what the science of the moment told us.  Instead the reaction you gave was, "we can't believe this is possible till we are 100% certain".  That's not following science - that's using a ridiculous criteria to silence any attempted talk about what the actual science was showing.



I absolutely followed the science.

The veterinarians themselves stated that there was no way to know for sure what made the cat sick without tests to be performed after the cat cleared quarantine, and why.

The symptoms could have had multiple causes, many completely unrelated to a Coronavirus infection.  Hence the tests.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> You aren't following the science though.




My wife is in teleconferences multiple times a week with world-leading researchers on the topic.  

You don't get an "apology" for two reasons:

1) The answer now is the same as before - statistics.  Hundreds of thousands of humans.  Two cats, with questionable cases.  The number of known cases worldwide in humans has nearly doubled since we last talked about this.  And still two cats.  One of the larger pet insurance companies in the US covers half a million animals.  They have seen _zero_ rise in claims regarding cases with covid-19 type symptoms.  Meanwhile, humans are dying by the hundreds.

I didn't say it cannot happen at all.  I said that the probability and risk to people is, on the scale of things, nonexistent.  Sure, if a thing is a one in a million chance, and you take a few million ties, you may see a couple.  That is not a significant thing for people to take home and worry about.

2) You seem to be more concerned with "apologies" and winning points for being right.  I am more concerned with getting people the best information to make the best decisions possible.  We are looking at a matter that may very well kill hundreds of thousands of people, and you want an apology?  This is not, should not, and will not be about you, personally.  Please get that into your head, and get your mind focused not on being technically correct, but getting people focused on the things they can to to actually protect themselves and their communities.

You know what leaning into this cat thing will do?  Kill cats.  People will (and already are) overreacting, and doing incredibly stupid things with their animals.  You are adding to this problem, not taking away from it.  Congratulations.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> You realize that there are no symptoms unique to Covid-19



Intimately.  My father is an MD with a MPH- we discuss respiratory ailments and epidemics with disturbingly common frequency.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I absolutely followed the science.
> 
> The veterinarians themselves stated that there was no way to know for sure what made the cat sick without tests to be performed after the cat cleared quarantine, and why.
> 
> The symptoms could have had multiple causes, many completely unrelated to a Coronavirus infection.  Hence the tests.




Only believing something once you have 100% certainty isn't science.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> You realize that there are no symptoms unique to Covid-19



“Evidence“ that- for the dogs- was shaky at best, and for the cat has yet to be dispositively determined.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Only believing something once you have 100% certainty isn't science.



Don’t play Kreskin- you have zero idea about my “beliefs”, only that I followed the statements of the professionals. 

When new evidence came in from a case with none of the problems present in the earlier anecdotes, professional opinion changed, and I accepted that change.

Adapting to changes in verifiable facts is 100% scientific.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> 1) The answer now is the same as before - statistics.  Hundreds of thousands of humans.  Two cats, with questionable cases.  The number of known cases worldwide in humans has nearly doubled since we last talked about this.  And still two cats.  One of the larger pet insurance companies in the US covers half a million animals.  They have seen _zero_ rise in claims regarding cases with covid-19 type symptoms.  Meanwhile, humans are dying by the hundreds.




You mean besides the zoo cats right?



> I didn't say it cannot happen at all.  I said that the probability and risk to people is, on the scale of things, nonexistent.  Sure, if a thing is a one in a million chance, and you take a few million ties, you may see a couple.  That is not a significant thing for people to take home and worry about.




So how many pets tested for it have came back negative?  It's hard to take statements like - we have no other cases of this seriously if no one is checking!

That said based on the current evidence it appears to infect few animals - but we really don't know for certain how many it's impacting if no tests are being done.



> 2) You seem to be more concerned with "apologies" and winning points for being right.  I am more concerned with getting people the best information to make the best decisions possible.  We are looking at a matter that may very well kill hundreds of thousands of people, and you want an apology?




I thought cat's couldn't infect people?  So seems to me no one is dying from cat infections of coronavirus.



> This is not, should not, and will not be about you, personally.  Please get that into your head, and get your mind focused not on being technically correct, but getting people focused on the things they can to to actually protect themselves and their communities.




I'd rather talk about coronavirus and cat's at the moment.  There's plenty of time in the rest of my day to persuade the people I know to be smart about this thing.



> You know what leaning into this cat thing will do?  Kill cats.  People will (and already are) overreacting, and doing incredibly stupid things with their animals.  You are adding to this problem, not taking away from it.  Congratulations.




I am not responsible in any way for any one elses actions.  That's not how life works.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Don’t play Kreskin- you have zero idea about my “beliefs”, only that I followed the statements of the professionals.
> 
> When new evidence came in from a case with none of the problems present in the earlier anecdotes, professional opinion changed, and I accepted that change.
> 
> Adapting to changes in verifiable facts is 100% scientific.




Yes verifiable facts.  
1.  The cat had symptoms consistent with coronoavirus
2.  The cat tested positive for it
3.  The test had potential to be cross contaminated

The scientific conclusion to draw around those facts is that it was likely the cat had coronavirus - though not certain.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

With the tigers getting sick, that means the cases of the house cats maybe having it gains a little bit more credibility, since the tigers are just very big cats. I am also less likely to believe the possible cases involving the dogs were credible because people tend to have much more contact with their dogs, than with their cats, and we would have heard about more dogs of sick owners getting sick too, since pets are not restricted from a human's self-isolation.  There are already several diseases that can be passed from cat to human or vice versa and there are documented cases of cats getting the flu, especially during outbreaks of H1N1, from their owners.


----------



## tomBitonti

Eltab said:


> Tangent:
> 
> According to Jared Diamond (famous for _Guns Germs and Steel_) in _The Day Before Yesterday_, modern warfare has higher total-casualty figures but lower death-percentage rates.  This is a function of both higher populations and densities, and of cultural features like the Rules of War.
> So, it is forbidden to bomb cities (civilians), thereby protecting a high percentage of the population from harm.  But once somebody starts doing it, hundreds of thousands or even millions of people are in the way to get hurt.
> 
> More On-Topic:
> I would look at WWI statistics.  Besides the 1918 influenza epidemic, the daily bloodletting of the trenches was enough to leave France, Britain, and Germany manpower-starved a generation later.  That attrition rate spiked during events like the Battle of the Somme which cost Britain 100,000 casualties on the first day alone, or the months-long Battle of Verdun which cost France and Germany 1,000,000 casualties each.




I considered that, but stopped at 1918, since that was how far back you went in your post.

I was thinking more of civilian deaths from city bombings, e.g., when Tokyo was fire bombed. Also, factoring in the different total world population. 

Very roughly, WWII averages out to about 32,000 persons/day, figuring 70,000,00 total persons over 6 years — from Wikipedia statistics.

The following is showing current (05-Apr-2020) deaths at 6k/day:








						Coronavirus Death Toll and Trends - Worldometer
					

Updated total and statistics, graphs and charts tracking the total number of deaths, deaths per day, and death by country from the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan, China




					www.worldometers.info
				




That seems to be doubling about every 7 days.  (With very probably underreported numbers.). Unless the spread slows, that gets us to WWII numbers in about 2 1/2 weeks.

 

Be safe and be well.
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Zardnaar

Corona is vastly short of Spanish Flu/WW2 levels. 

 World population is a lot bigger as well. 

 Numbers might end up larger but proportionally multiply by about 3 or 3.5.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Yes verifiable facts.
> 1.  The cat had symptoms consistent with coronoavirus



And many other illnesses


> 2.  The cat tested positive for it




No.  The samples of unknown quality tested positive for it.  The cat itself will not be tested until it has cleared quarantine.



> 3.  The test had potential to be cross contaminated



Yes.  Which is why the veterinarians could not reach a final diagnosis.



> The scientific conclusion to draw around those facts is that it was likely the cat had coronavirus - though not certain.




No.  The scientific conclusion to draw around those facts is that no conclusions can be reached until further testing can be done.  Which is what the vets said.

We just spent thousands on our younger dog.  She was quite ill, but is on the mend.  Her symptoms had multiple possible origins.  The only thing the tests revealed was that her symptoms were not caused by any of the more common, scarier suspects.

The same could be true of the cat.

Consider this:








						8 strains of the coronavirus are circling the globe. Here's what clues they're giving scientists.
					

Scientists sequenced the genomes of eight coronavirus strains circling the globe providing hints about the effectiveness of efforts to halt the virus.



					www.usatoday.com
				




If the cat tests positive for Covid-19, but a different strain, the owner would be presumptively ruled OUT as the source of the cat’s infection.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Wow, and I thought the fake news running rampant at all the US news outlets, and on social media, was bad, but this from China is crazy:









						How China’s fake news machine is rewriting the history of Covid-19, even as the pandemic unfolds
					

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson’s retweet of an article blaming the U.S. for infecting Wuhan with coronavirus went viral, viewed 160 million times within hours. But where did the story come from?




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Ogre Mage

*Washington State sending 400+ ventilators, Oregon sending 140 ventilators to N.Y. and other hard hit states*



> Dr. Raquel Bono, the retired Navy vice admiral leading Washington state’s coronavirus response, said in a statement that they’d made the decision to send off the ventilators after conferring with the Washington State Hospital Association.  “We have seen fewer infections in our communities than anticipated,” Bono said. “Our current status allows us to help others who have a more immediate need.”






> “I’ve said many times over the last few weeks, we are in this together,” Gov. Inslee said in a prepared statement Sunday. “This should guide all of our actions at an individual and state level in the coming days and weeks.”






> “We’ll be sending 140 ventilators to help NY because Oregon is in a better position right now,” Oregon Gov. Kate Brown tweeted Saturday. “Oregon doesn’t have everything we need to fight COVID-19 — we need more PPE and testing — but we can help today with ventilators. We are all in this together.”




Washington State and Oregon sending ventilators to NY and other hard hit states

They're right.  We are all in this together.


----------



## Zardnaar

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Wow, and I thought the fake news running rampant at all the US news outlets, and on social media, was bad, but this from China is crazy:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How China’s fake news machine is rewriting the history of Covid-19, even as the pandemic unfolds
> 
> 
> Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson’s retweet of an article blaming the U.S. for infecting Wuhan with coronavirus went viral, viewed 160 million times within hours. But where did the story come from?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com




 That's old news.

 They pressured the WHO to change the name, and blame US/Italy.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

And then we have some hopeful news about using nitric oxide:









						How a discovery that brought us Viagra could help those battling the coronavirus
					

Inhaled nitric oxide appeared to kill the coronavirus that caused severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, and it might work on COVID-19 as well.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> You mean besides the zoo cats right?




Do you have tigers in your home?  If not, they pose no significant risk to you.  Tigers are not, in fact, big housecats, so whether they can get covid-19 does not speak to what happens in domesticated cats.



> It's hard to take statements like - we have no other cases of this seriously if no one is checking!




Yes, of course, a profession that I just told you has multiple calls a week to disseminate information to its practitioners isn't checking.  

In general, you don't start doing large-scale testing in a population if the symptoms of the disease are not seen in the population, or until the epidemiology suggests that animals are a vector, especially when the materials for that testing are in short supply and you need them for other populations that are, in fact, dying.

Veterinarians are not seeing a rise in covid-19 symptoms in animals, despite their being in close proximity to humans.  See previous note about a lack of uptick in insurance claims about respiratory symptoms.  Epidemiologists are still tracing paths of infection in humans, and none of them have had an animal in the chain.

Do remember that you cannot, in a practical sense, prove a negative.  There is, so far, no evidence supporting companion animals getting the disease in any numbers worth discussing.  As I said - 1.2 million people.  Two cats.



> I thought cat's couldn't infect people?  So seems to me no one is dying from cat infections of coronavirus.




No, they're just dying in general.  And in a thread on the disease that is killing them, and apt to kill hundreds of thousands of people, you want to focus on a thing of only academic interest at this point.  



> I am not responsible in any way for any one elses actions.  That's not how life works.




If this were actually true, you'd be allowed to shout, "Fire!" (or, today, "Gun!" or, "Active shooter!") in a crowded theater.  People are influenced by what other people say.  A responsible member of a large society has to own that.


----------



## Umbran

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> And then we have some hopeful news about using nitric oxide:




Maybe?  Unfortunately, early reporting about drugs and treatment don't seem serve us well in times of crisis.

Folks talk about chloroquine, and suddenly folks start over dosing on unrelated fish tank additives to protect themselves from the disease.  Folks hear other rumors, and suddenly medicines needed to treat rheumatoid arthritis becomes hard to get, and folks start trying to horde drugs used to treat dogs for heartworm.  With that headline, folks are going to try to stockpile little blue pills...


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> No.  The scientific conclusion to draw around those facts is that no conclusions can be reached until further testing can be done.  Which is what the vets said.




The AVMA has this to say about the cat in Belgium (updated Friday, March 3rd - bolding mine)...

_"*No conclusions can responsibly be drawn* regarding the cat in Belgium because of questions surrounding collection and analysis of samples for testing for SARS-CoV-2 and the absence of an evaluation of that cat for other, more common causes for its clinical signs."_


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

IHME at U.Washington has updated their projections. They have COVID-19 deaths in the US overall peaking on APR 16, and then falling to <1 per day by mid June, with a cumulative 82k deaths or so (with huge error bars, of course).

_(The big caveat, btw, is that they consistently refer to this current rash of covid as "the first wave".)_






Projections for individual states are available at that site, too. Looks like roughly a 6-week spread among all the states' peaks. It will be interesting to see how political pressure to re-open the economy in earlier-peaking states will impact the overall pattern.


----------



## ad_hoc

Theo R Cwithin said:


> IHME at U.Washington has updated their projections. They have COVID-19 deaths in the US overall peaking on APR 16, and then falling to <1 per day by mid June, with a cumulative 82k deaths or so (with huge error bars, of course).
> 
> _(The big caveat, btw, is that they consistently refer to this current rash of covid as "the first wave".)_
> 
> View attachment 120560
> 
> Projections for individual states are available at that site, too. Looks like roughly a 6-week spread among all the states' peaks. It will be interesting to see how political pressure to re-open the economy in earlier-peaking states will impact the overall pattern.




The trick with those predictions is that: "
*COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"*


Keep in mind that 18 states do not have stay at home orders and 19 states have not closed non-essential businesses.

The USA has constantly sent the message that this isn't a big deal and it will be over soon. Every 2 weeks they say it's going to be done in 2 weeks.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

ad_hoc said:


> The trick with those predictions is that: "
> *COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"*
> 
> 
> Keep in mind that 18 states do not have stay at home orders and 19 states have not closed non-essential businesses.
> 
> The USA has constantly sent the message that this isn't a big deal and it will be over soon. Every 2 weeks they say it's going to be done in 2 weeks.



Yep. And  IHME is always updating their models and inputs, so we'll see. Like I said: it'll be "interesting" to see the interplay of science and politics in this.

I just wish it wasn't so blasted disruptive. I'm beyond ready for it to be done.


----------



## Azzy

ad_hoc said:


> The trick with those predictions is that: "
> *COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"*
> 
> 
> Keep in mind that 18 states do not have stay at home orders and 19 states have not closed non-essential businesses.



And in states like FL, churches are exempt from closure. It's moronic.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> Corona is vastly short of Spanish Flu/WW2 levels.
> 
> World population is a lot bigger as well.
> 
> Numbers might end up larger but proportionally multiply by about 3 or 3.5.




how much of that difference is because of the measures that have adopted relatively early on?


----------



## NotAYakk

Theo R Cwithin said:


> IHME at U.Washington has updated their projections. They have COVID-19 deaths in the US overall peaking on APR 16, and then falling to <1 per day by mid June, with a cumulative 82k deaths or so (with huge error bars, of course).



"We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete. "
Wtf.  They shouldn't release a model with ridiculous assumptions, not without putting that in bold.


> Our model suggests that, with social distancing, the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.



So they are assuming USA universally implements NZ-level 4 social distancing within a week and has complete adherence to the rules, and that if they do so, the epidemic could be extinguished via this method by June.

Basically they are publishing a best case model.

After that, they assume no reservoirs or reintroduction, or competent population testing and contact tracing to eliminate it.

Finally, note that the NYC (and Italy) numbers are way off on deaths:
They don't have the bandwidth to test people before they die.  They don't have the bandwidth to test corpses.  And they only count Covid-19 deaths when they get a test result before the person dies.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> The trick with those predictions is that: "
> *COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"*
> 
> 
> Keep in mind that 18 states do not have stay at home orders and 19 states have not closed non-essential businesses.
> 
> The USA has constantly sent the message that this isn't a big deal and it will be over soon. Every 2 weeks they say it's going to be done in 2 weeks.




closing non essential businesses is a joke. What has actually been closed - bars, movie theatres and restaurant lobbies?  Nearly everything else is Still In business


----------



## FrogReaver

Any thoughts on how big of a vector crowded grocery stores and hardware stores have on this?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Azzy said:


> And in states like FL, churches are exempt from closure. It's moronic.



_Especially_ in light of how many clusters around the world have been linked directly to worship services or ancillary gatherings centered around those houses of faith.

I’m a practicing Catholic, so I understand the struggle, but the only ones I _sympathize _for are those whose faiths demand a quorum of the faithful- a _minyan_ of 10 people in orthodox jewish traditions- or who eschew electricity- the Amish, etc.

Even so, no matter who you worship, He/She/It probably doesn’t want you to die, especially endangering others in the process.  Find another way.  Don’t cluster up- go outside and shout the good word at each other from a distance.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Any thoughts on how big of a vector crowded grocery stores and hardware stores have on this?



I haven’t seen any speculation from the pros.

Still, people gotta eat.  Hardware stores do have necessities for amateurs and professionals alike.

The good news- at least where I liveinna Dallas suburb- is that such stores are at least trying to reenforce social distancing orders, and some are introducing or expanding extant curbside service programs.  And we haven’t had any pandemic-related breaches of the peace; no brawls over TP or the like.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

FrogReaver said:


> Any thoughts on how big of a vector crowded grocery stores and hardware stores have on this?



It's only one data point but....
A few days ago, we finally saw the first case in my county. The next day, several more were identified.
All are grocery store workers.


----------



## The Green Hermit

FrogReaver said:


> Any thoughts on how big of a vector crowded grocery stores and hardware stores have on this?




Our local hardware store is only allowing a certain number of people in the store at a time. Many grocery stores are also doing this.


----------



## Umbran

The Green Hermit said:


> Our local hardware store is only allowing a certain number of people in the store at a time. Many grocery stores are also doing this.




My local Whole Foods is doing this.  You can only go in when someone comes out.  Until then, you are outside in line, standing far apart.

The Mayor of Boston has called for all residents to wear at least cloth masks when out in public - not to protect themselves (cloth masks don't really do a good job of that) but to maybe slow down asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic spread.  No numbers on how effective this is expected to be.


----------



## Umbran

Theo R Cwithin said:


> (with huge error bars, of course).




Yeah, those huge error bars are troubling.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Umbran said:


> The Mayor of Boston has called for all residents to wear at least cloth masks when out in public - not to protect themselves (cloth masks don't really do a good job of that) but to maybe slow down asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic spread.  No numbers on how effective this is expected to be.




I don't see this as being any more effective at keeping people from spreading it as it is keeping them from catching it.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> _Especially_ in light of how many clusters around the world have been linked directly to worship services or ancillary gatherings centered around those houses of faith.
> 
> I’m a practicing Catholic, so I understand the struggle, but the only ones I _sympathize _for are those whose faiths demand a quorum of the faithful- a _minyan_ of 10 peop in orthodox jewish traditions- or who eschew electricity- the Amish, etc.
> 
> Even so, no matter who you worship, He/She/It probably doesn’t want you to die, especially endangering others in the process.  Find another way.  Don’t cluster up- go outside and shout the good word at each other from a distance.




while I agree the churches should voluntarily close doors or limit people inside... I don’t believe the government should force them to close when stores like Walmart and mcondalds are still open.  Seems off When most every business is deemed essential and youcrack down on churches...


----------



## The Green Hermit

FrogReaver said:


> while I agree the churches should voluntarily close doors or limit people inside... I don’t believe the government should force them to close when stores like Walmart and mcondalds are still open.  Seems off When most every business is deemed essential and youcrack down on churches...




Food, hardware stores, and business supply stores ARE necessary. Church is not. The community might be, but they can be creative like all the other businesses out there.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

FrogReaver said:


> while I agree the churches should voluntarily close doors or limit people inside... I don’t believe the government should force them to close when stores like Walmart and mcondalds are still open.  Seems off When most every business is deemed essential and youcrack down on churches...




The difference is that Wallmarts are HUGE. And people gotta eat. Most places I know about, McDonald's is only open for drive-through.

Even a big church, unless they are only letting people sit 6 feet apart (so, what, like 3/4 empty church?) is TOO CLOSE.  A church open to allow a few people in to pray, would be fine. Hosting sermons is really not a good idea. A choir, (or any group of people SINGING) is a TERRIBLE idea.


----------



## FrogReaver

The Green Hermit said:


> Food, hardware stores, and business supply stores ARE necessary. Church is not. The community might be, but they can be creative like all the other businesses out there.




food is the only essential thing you mentioned - which would be grocery stores - not mconalds.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Disagree. We still need shelter that doesn't crumble around us -- which means hardware stores. Restaurants are important places to get food as well as the grocery stores, as long as it is take out. Businesses are still running, some still need to be on-site, but most are at home -- which means people still need business supplies, sometimes even more than before.


----------



## FrogReaver

The Green Hermit said:


> If you don't mind me asking, how old are you? Your replies to several posts seem to lack life experience.




Most likely older than anyone that would ask such a rude, dismissive and condescending question. Only juveniles trot out that line.


----------



## ad_hoc

FitzTheRuke said:


> The difference is that Wallmarts are HUGE. And people gotta eat. Most places I know about, McDonald's is only open for drive-through.
> 
> Even a big church, unless they are only letting people sit 6 feet apart (so, what, like 3/4 empty church?) is TOO CLOSE.  A church open to allow a few people in to pray, would be fine. Hosting sermons is really not a good idea. A choir, (or any group of people SINGING) is a TERRIBLE idea.




It doesn't even matter if they kept their distance as they are still going outside for non-essential reasons. 

In Canada we have orders to:

1. Only go out for essential supplies like grocery and pharmacy and to limit to 1x/week if possible.
2. Short walks in the neighbourhood alone or only with people living in the same household. 

Only leave the house otherwise if doing essential work.


----------



## Umbran

The Green Hermit said:


> Disagree. We still need shelter that doesn't crumble around us -- which means hardware stores.




If your roof starts leaking, or your toilet fails, or the like, you need to be able to get things to keep it rolling.

You _don't_ need to be able to put in that deck you always wanted, or do the spring landscaping planting.  That stuff can wait, but is causing crowds in the big hardware stores.



> Restaurants are important places to get food




They are also a large segment of the economy with largely low-paid labor.  Since we find we can generally keep them open for take-out/delivery, there's a lot to be said for doing so.



> If you don't mind me asking, how old are you? Your replies to several posts seem to lack life experience.




Um... that's not cool.  It effectively amounts to, "You couldn't disagree with me unless you were naive," which is both a weak rhetorical stance, and rather unkind.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> It doesn't even matter if they kept their distance as they are still going outside for non-essential reasons.
> 
> In Canada we have orders to:
> 
> 1. Only go out for essential supplies like grocery and pharmacy and to limit to 1x/week if possible.
> 2. Short walks in the neighbourhood alone or only with people living in the same household.
> 
> Only leave the house otherwise if doing essential work.




if these were the rules in U.S. then I would have no issue with churches being forced closed - because then only actual essential businesses and activities are being allowed.

We have a crazy definition in the U.S of what constitutes essential - which IMO is why you see some churches ignoring the restrictions because they actually don’t make much sense.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Umbran said:


> If your roof starts leaking, or your toilet fails, or the like, you need to be able to get things to keep it rolling.
> 
> You _don't_ need to be able to put in that deck you always wanted, or do the spring landscaping planting.  That stuff can wait, but is causing crowds in the big hardware stores.




Unless you need (not want) to sell your home and those added touches are needed in today's buyer's market. Believe it or not, there are a lot of properties for sale even in today's market -- at least in Washington State. Also, if you have to do serious repairs on your deck, it only makes sense to make the wanted improvements while you are at it.

There are also several instances where landscape planting IS necessary, especially for structural integrity. However, most plants and seeds can be ordered and delivered, so I do agree with you on not needing to go out and about for them.




Umbran said:


> Um... that's not cool.  It effectively amounts to, "You couldn't disagree with me unless you were naive," which is both a weak rhetorical stance, and rather unkind.




I "ignored" him, so we won't have to irritate each other any more.


----------



## FrogReaver

The Green Hermit said:


> Unless you need (not want) to sell your home and those added touches are needed in today's buyer's market. Believe it or not, there are a lot of properties for sale even in today's market -- at least in Washington State. Also, if you have to do serious repairs on your deck, it only makes sense to make the wanted improvements while you are at it.




And All of that can wait till this is over.  There’s nothing immediately essential about any of it.



> There are also several instances where landscape planting IS necessary, especially for structural integrity. However, most plants and seeds can be ordered and delivered, so I do agree with you on not needing to go out and about for them.




Almost everything can be ordered online.  Which is another blow to the “essential” argument.


----------



## Zardnaar

Getting sick from Covid doesn't scare me much. 

 What comes afterwards does.







FrogReaver said:


> how much of that difference is because of the measures that have adopted relatively early on?




 No idea. Corona doesn't seem that bad relative to previous pandemics. It's not good could be a lot worse.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Zardnaar said:


> Getting sick from Covid doesn't scare me much. What comes afterwards does.
> No idea. Corona doesn't seem that bad relative to previous pandemics. It's not good could be a lot worse.




What part of what comes afterwards worries you?

It's a terrible thing that we'll never know how bad it would have been if the world hadn't gone crazy about it. If all our "stay-at-home" measures work out, then they cause a situation that appears, on the surface, that the measures themselves were overreactions. 

Unfortunately, the example of Sweden (that hasn't done much) won't ever indicate that their attitude would have worked anywhere else in the world (Sweden is a pretty unique place). Also, their reluctance to act might come to bite them terribly, as well. 

Who knows, really? Maybe we could have just let it swathe its way across the planet while we all did litte-to-nothing to prevent it, and it could have wound up tolerable. Seems more likely that it would have been a terrible disaster.


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> What part of what comes afterwards worries you?
> 
> It's a terrible thing that we'll never know how bad it would have been if the world hadn't gone crazy about it. If all our "stay-at-home" measures work out, then they cause a situation that appears, on the surface, that the measures themselves were overreactions.
> 
> Unfortunately, the example of Sweden (that hasn't done much) won't ever indicate that their attitude would have worked anywhere else in the world (Sweden is a pretty unique place). Also, their reluctance to act might come to bite them terribly, as well.
> 
> Who knows, really? Maybe we could have just let it swathe its way across the planet while we all did litte-to-nothing to prevent it, and it could have wound up tolerable. Seems more likely that it would have been a terrible disaster.




 Afterwards great depression 2.0.

Economies are collapsing faster than they did in 1929. More than a few months it's looking worse than 1929. 

 Throw in food shortages which are already starting in parts and yeah. 

 Not such an issue here but it's gonna be overseas.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Washington State just closed on-site schooling until the end of the year, with the caveat that if things improve, we may go back for the last week or so.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> food is the only essential thing you mentioned - which would be grocery stores - not mconalds.



Around here, at least, hardware stores are a necessary resource for all kinds of construction & repair businesses.  While there are specialty shops for certain supplies, plumbers, HVAC , and all kinds of repairmen shop at Home Depot, Lowe’s and Ace for nails, lumber, PVC, etc., just like the rest of us.

And not everyone out there cooks.  I know too many people who don’t, and rely on takeout for most of their meals.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hardware stores and takeout are closed here. The stores can supply trades not the general public. 

  Tradies are only allowed to do essential work so if you want your bathroom renovated tough luck, they can fix your water/electricity/windows etc.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Zardnaar said:


> Hardware stores and takeout are closed here. The stores can supply trades not the general public.
> 
> Tradies are only allowed to do essential work so if you want your bathroom renovated tough luck, they can fix your water/electricity/windows etc.




So you have to hire somebody to reframe/replace your shower after a major leak instead of doing it yourself? Same with reflooring after said leak?

Not that I know from immediate experience or anything . . .


----------



## Zardnaar

The Green Hermit said:


> So you have to hire somebody to reframe/replace your shower after a major leak instead of doing it yourself? Same with reflooring after said leak?
> 
> Not that I know from immediate experience or anything . . .




 In theory they'll fix the leak and leave the shower. 

 Some tradies have told some trying to game it to get bent. 

 The tradie doesn't have to do the work. 

 Some idiot threw a brick through wife's cousins window. Student town drunken idiots do things like that.

 Setting couches on fire and 1000 people street parties have stopped.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Around here, at least, hardware stores are a necessary resource for all kinds of construction & repair businesses.




Very little construction or repair is actually essential at this time.  

Someone's roof leaks or toilet breaks or fridge breaks then that's essential enough - but that isn't really the typical type of business the hardware stores are getting right now is it?



> And not everyone out there cooks.  I know too many people who don’t, and rely on takeout for most of their meals.




It's more like not everyone cooks well - but when push comes to shove you'll find something you can bear to eat in the grocery store - even if it's tv dinners, beans, bologna, bread, ramen noodles and spaghettios.  You may not prefer having to eat what your non-cooking self gets from the grocery store but that doesn't make takeout is essential.  It's completely non-essential.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> Hardware stores and takeout are closed here. The stores can supply trades not the general public.
> 
> Tradies are only allowed to do essential work so if you want your bathroom renovated tough luck, they can fix your water/electricity/windows etc.




Another reasonable approach.


----------



## Zardnaar

Not only is takeout non essential it may spread Covid. 

 I wouldn't be getting it even if they were open here.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Another reasonable approach.




 National trait you should see the memes on Facebook and Reddit atm. 

 Think our PM has won re-election already. Something like 93% approve if what she's doing.

 We don't really have approval ratings but she's over 80% overall and 70% with the opposition voters.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Zardnaar said:


> In theory they'll fix the leak and leave the shower.
> 
> Some tradies have told some trying to game it to get bent.
> 
> The tradie doesn't have to do the work.
> 
> Some idiot threw a brick through wife's cousins window. Student town drunken idiots do things like that.
> 
> Setting couches on fire and 1000 people street parties have stopped.




That theory doesn't work when you had to pry all the tiles off the shower, breaking enough of them that they can't be replaced, and the wall is rotten behind it. (Leaking much longer than we had known.) Also, in order to remove the tub basin so we could repair underneath it, we had to take a sledgehammer to it and break it up -- old cast iron from the 70s.

Also, we do our own repairs. We have always done our own repairs. We are not going to pay several times the cost of the materials and equipment when we do not have to.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> National trait you should see the memes on Facebook and Reddit atm.
> 
> Think our PM has won re-election already.




Nice.

So my new Argument...

Since New Zealand can do without hardware stores and takeout then they aren't essential.


----------



## Zardnaar

The Green Hermit said:


> That theory doesn't work when you had to pry all the tiles off the shower, breaking enough of them that they can't be replaced, and the wall is rotten behind it. (Leaking much longer than we had known.) Also, in order to remove the tub basin so we could repair underneath it, we had to take a sledgehammer to it and break it up -- old cast iron from the 70s.
> 
> Also, we do our own repairs. We have always done our own repairs. We are not going to pay several times the cost of the materials and equipment when we do not have to.




 Tradies discretion I suppose. 

 There is a dob in line for rule breakers and the police can legally enter your house without a warrant in regards to Covid.

 If you don't have Covid they can apologize later.

 The PM called rule breakers idiots and the Grace period is over.


----------



## FrogReaver

The Green Hermit said:


> That theory doesn't work when you had to pry all the tiles off the shower, breaking enough of them that they can't be replaced, and the wall is rotten behind it. (Leaking much longer than we had known.) Also, in order to remove the tub basin so we could repair underneath it, we had to take a sledgehammer to it and break it up -- old cast iron from the 70s.
> 
> Also, we do our own repairs. We have always done our own repairs. We are not going to pay several times the cost of the materials and equipment when we do not have to.




I get it.  But you can either wait to start that repair for a few months, order the stuff online and wait a few weeks or call the pro if it's immediately necessary.  Sorry your stuff had to break in the middle of a pandemic but you paying a little more to do what you could have done yourself today if the hardware store was open is not a good essential reason to keep it open.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Nice.
> 
> So my new Argument...
> 
> Since New Zealand can do without hardware stores and takeout then they aren't essential.




 They closed big box stores. One thought they were essential but got closed the following day. 

 Most online shopping got closed as well, they revised that after a few days expanding what is essential. 

You can't buy much put it that way. I found some socks at the supermarket.


----------



## Zardnaar

If anyone cares.

Stuff.co.nz








						Latest breaking news NZ | Stuff.co.nz | New Zealand
					

Breaking news and videos of today's latest news stories from around New Zealand, including up to date weather, World, sport, business, Entertainment, Technology Life and Style, Travel and motoring.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




Rnz.co.nz








						RNZ - NZ News, Current Affairs, Audio On Demand
					

New Zealand's public broadcaster, providing comprehensive NZ news and current affairs, specialist audio features and documentaries.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				





And  Reddit r/Newzealand is kinda funny if you're bored. Obviously there's some WTF moments.


----------



## ad_hoc

FitzTheRuke said:


> Unfortunately, the example of Sweden (that hasn't done much) won't ever indicate that their attitude would have worked anywhere else in the world (Sweden is a pretty unique place). Also, their reluctance to act might come to bite them terribly, as well.




Per capita Sweden currently has twice the number of confirmed cases, half the amount of tests, and 5 times the amount of deaths of Canada.

They're not in great in shape and I wouldn't be surprised if things exploded there soon.


----------



## Zardnaar

Bottle stores are also closed that's where you buy spirits.

 Supermarkets sell beer and wine.

 One province spirits can only be sold by charitable trust which is "essential". My wife's work is essential and she's in freight so one of the drivers heading there placed an order for her workplace. 

$1500 order lol, two bottles of Canadian Club incoming. 

  Hand sanitizer is sold out. It's still being shipped, doesn't make it to the supermarket shelf though it's going to supermarket workers, hospitals and freight and their families.






 It's not even labeled. They're ignoring the health and safety rules shipping dangerous goods and most of the paperwork.

 100 000 tourists and short term visas stuck. 400 000 on other Visa's.

 They can't get home some have been told by their families they're better off here as our supermarkets are stocked (mostly) and crimes spiking as well.

 The moron of the day award goes to an idiot livestreaming himself shoplifting. One of his viewers rung the supermarket, security had a word with him and he raged at them and stormed off. Police were waiting for him outside.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Very little construction or repair is actually essential at this time.
> 
> Someone's roof leaks or toilet breaks or fridge breaks then that's essential enough - but that isn't really the typical type of business the hardware stores are getting right now is it?



We’ve still got crews on blue-tarped houses repairing damage from the last hailstorms.  And there’s still rebuilding to be done from the tornadoes that hit last year.  New houses are still going up.

Hell- we have a brand new hot water pipe leak under our house.  You can tell from the warm tiles.  (However, we won’t be able to do any about THAT for at least a month, barring a disaster.)

With spring, Texas is getting ready for more severe thunderstorms: IOW, more hail, more tornadoes, and more damaging straight-line winds.

And if the contractors are the only ones with access to hardware stores, the D.I.Y. crowd- particularly the ones who do it out of financial necessity- are simply screwed.



> It's more like not everyone cooks well - but when push comes to shove you'll find something you can bear to eat in the grocery store - even if it's tv dinners, beans, bologna, bread, ramen noodles and spaghettios.  You may not prefer having to eat what your non-cooking self gets from the grocery store but that doesn't make takeout is essential.  It's completely non-essential.




I said what I meant and meant what I said.  I know people whose refrigerators only hold drinks & takeout, whose only pots are what I gave them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We’ve still got crews on blue-tarped houses repairing damage from the last hailstorms.  And there’s still rebuilding from the tornadoes that hit last year.
> 
> Hell- we have a brand new hot water pipe leak under our house.  You can tell from the warm tiles.  (However, we won’t be able to do any about THAT for at least a month, barring a disaster.)




 That probably counts as essential.

 They closed most construction sites. 

 Queen gave a nice speech and Jacinda (our PM) has addressed concerns about the Easter bunny not being able to make it to the children.


----------



## Ogre Mage

*California sends 500 ventilators back to the national stockpile for hard-hit states*



> California is loaning 500 ventilators to states like New York where the coronavirus is exacting a deeper toll, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Monday.  Some California health officials have gained more confidence in recent days that the state's infection curve is flattening, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area, which took the nation's earliest shelter-in-place actions.






> The act of generosity completes a bi-coastal aid package after both Washington State and Oregon lent ventilators to New York, which is battling the nation's worst outbreak.



California sends 500 ventilators back to the national stockpile


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I said what I meant and meant what I said.  I know people whose refrigerators only hold drinks & takeout, whose only pots are what I gave them.




Don’t need a pot for anything I mentioned.  Sucks to have to change your lifestyle and not eat as good of food but it won’t kill them.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

My Dad’s medical practice reopened today, per orders from the new owners.  He’s been told to wear a mask when seeing patients.  He’s planning on showering and changing clothes when he gets home.  While his practice is allergy/asthma centered, because people with all kinds of respiratory problems may walk through his door, he can’t take any chances.  The kid with hay fever might ALSO have Covid-19.

Per _my_ advice, he’s not going to be wearing his sportscoats, ties or cufflinks to work.  Strictly dress casual/preppy.


----------



## Zardnaar

We've been binge watching old seasons of Survivor. 

 Instead of reality TV treating it as life advice.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We’ve still got crews on blue-tarped houses repairing damage from the last hailstorms.  And there’s still rebuilding to be done from the tornadoes that hit last year.  New houses are still going up.




Why are new houses essential at this time?
Why are already tarped roofs from the last hailstorms essential at this time - I mean how long have they been tarped for anyways?



> With spring, Texas is getting ready for more severe thunderstorms: IOW, more hail, more tornadoes, and more damaging straight-line winds.




Not every kind of damage is essential to repair right away.



> And if the contractors are the only ones with access to hardware stores, the D.I.Y. crowd- particularly the ones who do it out of financial necessity- are simply screwed.




Because some people may be financially burdened to do something a more expensive way - that doesn't suddenly make the cheaper alternative something essential.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Why are new houses essential at this time?




Because the people having them built are in need of places to live.  While we’re under a moratorium on eviction doesn’t mean it’s comfy, affordable or safe for a family of 4 (such as one of my distant cousins) to be living in temporary housing.


> Why are already tarped roofs from the last hailstorms essential at this time - I mean how long have they been tarped for anyways?




Months.  We had some terribad hailstorms hit D/FW in 2019.  My car- which was unavoidably parked outside of our garage due to a dead opener- lost both its front and back windshield, and took a hit to the top of the front right wheel well bigger than a human head.

(Part of that is due to supply bottlenecks.  Some of that is labor shortages.)

A tarp won’t stop that kind of weather.  Welcome to life in Tornado Alley!



> Not every kind of damage is essential to repair right away.




But most repairs use the same supplies to fix.



> Because some people may be financially burdened to do something a more expensive way - that doesn't suddenly make the cheaper alternative something essential.




If you know what you’re doing, D.I.Y. is usually cheaper.  (As my Dad can attest, if you _don’t_ know what you’re doing, you‘re calling the repairman anyway, and he‘ll be taking his family to Jamaica for their next vacay.)

If your crapper cracks, and you can’t afford a plumber- a probability increasing for many the longer the economic slowdown continues- then your only choice is hitting a hardware store and getting one yourself.  If you’re barred from doing so, where will you poop?  (This isn't a scenario chosen at random.  .My mobility challenged mother fell in the bathroom and destroyed the toilet a few years ago.  We could afford a plumber, but others, not so much.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Well they shut down most construction sites here as well. A few of those companies won't survive. 

 They're hoping the freeze on stuff plus bailout might save something. 

 If I'm lucky I might be able to get a job on fishing boats as they're essential.

60% staying at home all the economic figures look terrible. 

 The hope is we wipe out Covid but the borders will be shut. At best it's a return to the 70s. At worst the 30s.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Well, a couple of sad - and ominous - quotes posted at worldometers.info today regarding the status of the pandemic in the US:



> An estimated additional *180 - 195 deaths per day *occurring at home in *New York City* due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "_Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. *We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home*. Now only those few who had a test confirmation before dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means* we are undercounting the total number of victims* of this pandemic,_" said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source] [top of thread]






> A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we* assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported*. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51% chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway" [source]


----------



## Zardnaar

Can't get takeaways delivered but can get food delivered. In my city of 120k we have. 

Flour Mill
Fish factory
Milk powder Depot
Meat Pattie factory (supplies McDonalds)
Bakery
Toilet paper factory
Oat factory
Supermarket distribution center
2 breweries
Chocolate factory

 That's off the top of my head. Two freezing works and markets gardens are reasonably close.


 Food production counts as essential. Fish factory has started home deliveries (free).

 Not gonna starve but the menu might be 1970s in a few months.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Theo R Cwithin said:


> "A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we* assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported*. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51% chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway"




Funny, I was just talking with someone a day or two ago and saying something similar about here in Virginia. The city where I live had 10 confirmed cases at the time of this conversation and I was guessing, that with the low number of tests being done, the actual number of people with the virus was probably 10 times the number of cases, or another 100+ people running around my city with it.


----------



## FrogReaver

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Well, a couple of sad - and ominous - quotes posted at worldometers.info today regarding the status of the pandemic in the US:




I find that hard to believe.  U.S. has 10,000 deaths and performed 1.9 million tests.  Even if we used an additional 1,000 tests a day on dead people it would be a drop in the bucket.


----------



## Zardnaar

54 new cases from just under 4000 tests.

I think our capacity is 5000, per capita relative to the USA it's about 320k tests per day.

It's a hit rate of around 1% on contact tracing. Death toll still 1, ICUs still not overwhelmed or even near capacity.

 Edit 4 in ICU, 1 critical.

Went to corner store for bread, found these.






$1.40 USD for 2.

Nice Chinese couple runs the store, no idea where they got them from.

First attempt at homemade mask. First ever selfie.






Second attempt, second ever selfie.





Also winter type day. Old tea shirt made the sacrifice plus beanie and hoodie.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

FrogReaver said:


> I find that hard to believe.  U.S. has 10,000 deaths and performed 1.9 million tests.  Even if we used an additional 1,000 tests a day on dead people it would be a drop in the bucket.



I don't follow. You find _what_ hard to believe? 
That nearly 200 people per day could be dying of covid in their homes in NYC and going uncounted due to lack of tests (first quote)?  
Or that 9 in 10 cases are unreported (second quote)?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Just saw an interesting article about Covid-19’s ability to survive on surgical masks (7days) and cloth (2 days), which really illustrates both why you need to wash your hands AND why experts keep pointing out how to properly remove a mask (from behind your ears).


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Just saw an interesting article about Covid-19’s ability to survive on surgical masks (7days) and cloth (2 days), which really illustrates both why you need to wash your hands AND why experts keep pointing out how to properly remove a mask (from behind your ears).




I've been assuming two weeks.

Article here had a book published in the 30s about Spanish Flu.

Basically hygiene, incinerate, and isolation.

 Great grandparents may not have the science but they had common sense.

 They closed schools back in 1919.


----------



## FrogReaver

Theo R Cwithin said:


> I don't follow. You find _what_ hard to believe?
> That nearly 200 people per day could be dying of covid in their homes in NYC and going uncounted due to lack of tests (first quote)?
> Or that 9 in 10 cases are unreported (second quote)?




Sorry, that the reason the people are dying and going unreported is because of lack of tests.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Sorry, that the reason the people are dying and going unreported is because of lack of tests.




 Count the bodies. Compare with pre Corvid daily amounts.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

FrogReaver said:


> Sorry, that the reason the people are dying and going unreported is because of lack of tests.




I think the disconnect is that people ARE dying and going unreported because they are untested, but it's not because there's not enough tests - it's because there's not reason to test them. A lot of this counting is for counting's sake - the numbers are nearly meaningless: We _know_ that there are more active cases than are being counted. This is just saying that there's _also_ more deaths than are being counted.


----------



## FrogReaver

FitzTheRuke said:


> I think the disconnect is that people ARE dying and going unreported because they are untested, but it's not because there's not enough tests - it's because there's not reason to test them. A lot of this counting is for counting's sake - the numbers are nearly meaningless: We _know_ that there are more active cases than are being counted. This is just saying that there's _also_ more deaths than are being counted.




Mostly agree.  I still think there's potentially reason to test them.  The more data we have on this thing the better we can fight it.


----------



## FrogReaver

I found this article interesting.  Talking about 2019-2020 flu season being more severe than normal in the U.S.  Article was written back in early January before all the Covid-19 stuff in the U.S.

2019-2020 Flu Season on Track to Be Especially Severe, New CDC Data Suggests

Mere conjecture, but any thoughts on if Covid-19 could have already been here in December/January and been misdiagnosed as Flu?


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

FrogReaver said:


> I found this article interesting.  Talking about 2019-2020 flu season being more severe than normal in the U.S.  Article was written back in early January before all the Covid-19 stuff in the U.S.
> 
> 2019-2020 Flu Season on Track to Be Especially Severe, New CDC Data Suggests
> 
> Mere conjecture, but any thoughts on if Covid-19 could have already been here in December/January and been misdiagnosed as Flu?




Hard to say, but flu viruses mutate every season, which is why this season's flu shot only protects you from last season's flu virus and not any new mutations that spring up this season.

But I do remember hearing/reading about how more people this season seemed to be getting the Spring version of flu in the Fall/early Winter, which is apparently very unusual to have happen. Some of those cases could have been early coronavirus cases that we did not know were not flu because China covered up and lied about what was happening for maybe as much as a month or more. Instead of the first recognized case in the US being in mid-January, maybe it was here early to mid-December instead.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> I found this article interesting.  Talking about 2019-2020 flu season being more severe than normal in the U.S.  Article was written back in early January before all the Covid-19 stuff in the U.S.
> 
> 2019-2020 Flu Season on Track to Be Especially Severe, New CDC Data Suggests
> 
> Mere conjecture, but any thoughts on if Covid-19 could have already been here in December/January and been misdiagnosed as Flu?



Possible, especially if the vast majority of the cases were mild or asymptomatic.

In fact, there have been a couple researchers claiming it’s possible that Covid-19 has been in humans for many months if not *years*, but just wasn’t as virulent. They surmise that Wuhan may not be the actual original epicenter of infection.

And Icelandic researchers suggest that as many as 50% of all Covid-19 victims are asymptomatic.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And Icelandic researchers suggest that as many as 50% of all Covid-19 victims are asymptomatic.




Which is actually pretty reassuring. Now if we could just figure out how to keep the other 50% out of the ICU, we could get back to normal.


----------



## Zardnaar

The Green Hermit said:


> Which is actually pretty reassuring. Now if we could just figure out how to keep the other 50% out of the ICU, we could get back to normal.




Seems to be around 10% of everyone else, 5% overall.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Zardnaar said:


> Seems to be around 10% of everyone else, 5% overall.




Agreed. However, a higher percentage would be hospitalized if the hospitals weren't so overwhelmed.


----------



## Zardnaar

The Green Hermit said:


> Agreed. However, a higher percentage would be hospitalized if the hospitals weren't so overwhelmed.




 True. 

 Government's ponied up money for a food bank.









						Auckland's Spark Arena becomes huge foodbank during lockdown
					

An entire sports stadium in Auckland has been transformed into a food bank to help feed thousands of households going hungry during the lockdown. As New Zealand's cases of Covid-19 start to level out, the number of people struggling to get food on the table isn't letting up. Auckland Council's...




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Stadium's empty, why not.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Our stadiums are being turned into field hospitals.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The Green Hermit said:


> Which is actually pretty reassuring. Now if we could just figure out how to keep the other 50% out of the ICU, we could get back to normal.



It’s reassuring in the sense that most cases will not be life threatening.

However, it also a factor in why the virus has a reproduction number (R0 - R naught) of 2.2- each patient transmits the infection to an additional 2.2 individuals.

Think of it like having multiple attacks in an RPG.  The more attack rolls you get, the better your odds of getting a crit- in this context, the better odds the virus has of infecting someone it can _really_ mess up.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s reassuring in the sense that most cases will not be life threatening.
> 
> However, it also a factor in why the virus has a reproduction number (R0 - R naught) of 2.2- each patient transmits the infection to an additional 2.2 individuals.
> 
> Think of it like having multiple attacks in an RPG.  The more attack rolls you get, the better your odds of getting a crit- in this context, the better odds the virus has of infecting someone it can _really_ mess up.




Almost like advantage and 20's a crit.

Went to supermarket. Remember when Jacko was weird for wearing gloves and mask?






Toilet paper isle.





Found some essentials. Russian beer not to bad and cheap. Bought 4 to sanitize the stomach, 900ml cans.

$1 NZD= 0.59 USD so the big cans are a bit over $3.

Most things available, picked up a 10kg bag of rice, no yeast, flour or hand sanitizer.


----------



## Zardnaar

Previous post beer.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

My Dad (MD) has asked me to use masks in those grocery trips now.  If I didn‘t live with 3 people over 70, I might not, but...caution is the watchword of the day.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> My Dad (MD) has asked me to use masks in those grocery trips now.  If I didn‘t live with 3 people over 70, I might not, but...caution is the watchword of the day.




 Can't really buy them. Basically got lucky today. 

 Might have an N95 in an old work bag. Just remembered.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

We keep a small supply of basic masks on hand.  A few dozen or so.  But he has access to masks at his practice, so he generally doesn't need to use the home reserves to go to work.  So what we have should last a while.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We keep a small supply of basic masks on hand.  A few dozen or so.  But he has access to masks at his practice, so he generally doesn't need to use the home reserves to go to work.  So what we have should last a while.




Avoided supermarket 3 weeks, we've got enough supplies for around 2 months.

 Looks like they're being more generous with what's being allowed to be delivered and companies still operating are doing deliveries even if they didn't used to. 

 Couriers and freight picking up. 

If it gets really bad just gonna go full turtle.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The main things I’ve needed at the groceries were perishables- milk, bread, etc.- and dog food.  That last one isn’t usually an issue, but the panic buyers hit that aisle pretty hard.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The main things I’ve needed at the groceries were perishables- milk, bread, etc.- and dog food.  That last one isn’t usually an issue, but the panic buyers hit that aisle pretty hard.




I've got around 6kg of milk powder, and a lot of flour plus bread maker.

Aging up a couple of bananas for cake.

10kg bag of rice, and enough breakfast cereal for several months.

I'm not worried about being able to buy food, just if we want to go get it. There's a little corner store that charges 50 cents more for milk and breads not cheap but it's not very busy.

Gonna be eating a lot if home made Indian and canned fruit. Wife was a bread snob but she's eating the cheap stuff now depending on what's available on any particular day. 

 Plenty of stuff available just might not get your favorite brand or flavour.


----------



## Umbran

The Green Hermit said:


> Unless you need (not want) to sell your home and those added touches are needed in today's buyer's market.




You and I have different definitions of "essential" under these circumstances.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Corona doesn't seem that bad relative to previous pandemics.




That's kind of like saying, "This war doesn't seem as bad as WWI."


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> But most repairs use the same supplies to fix.




That doesn't mean those suppliers should be open to the general public at this time.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Getting sick from Covid doesn't scare me much.




Yes, but... how many people are you willing to kill?

This is the central point of this disease.  Yes, if you get it, you are very likely to be asymptomatic.  If you are symptomatic, you are unlikely to go to the hospital.  If you go to the hospital, so long as that hospital is not overburdened, you probably won't die.

But, you are also likely to be responsible for infecting several other people, and the numbers work out such that not long after you have passed it along, someone is dead.  Then several are dead.  Then many are dead.

We are used to thinking about disease as a personal risk - "If I catch this, I may die."  This disease is different.  If you catch it, _someone else dies_.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> My Dad’s medical practice reopened today, per orders from the new owners.  He’s been told to wear a mask when seeing patients.  He’s planning on showering and changing clothes when he gets home.




My wife, getting over her bronchitis, is thinking about getting back to work.  We are developing a pretty stringent sanitation plan.  



> Per _my_ advice, he’s not going to be wearing his sportscoats, ties or cufflinks to work.  Strictly dress casual/preppy.




Cufflinks? You could wipe those down easily enough.  But yeah, clothing should all be stuff that can go immediately into the waching machine.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> My wife, getting over her bronchitis, is thinking about getting back to work.  We are developing a pretty stringent sanitation plan.




By the way I appreciate the info you post about her professional expertise. It’s good stuff even though we often disagree.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> That's kind of like saying, "This war doesn't seem as bad as WWI."




History degree. Spanish Flu, Black Death, Antonine Plague, Justinian Plague.

Could be worse.

I was ahead of the curve when it came to self isolation, setting up quarantine room, washing hands etc. Started that 3-4 weeks ago.

I'm not scared in the sense of being paranoid, or washing everything when I go for a walk around the block.

I'm bring cautious best that I can, avoided supermarket for 3 weeks. Been to small local store twice. This week was first time I've interacted with anyone apart from wife in three weeks. Needed bread/milk and wife can't carry 10kg bags of rice plus cans.

  I'm more scared about what comes after and maybe random idiots. I'm more worried about others.

It's not like the government's conscripting me to go fight the Germans. Our grandparents and great grandparents dealt with the Spanish Flu/Great Depression/Nazis. Now it's our turn.

We have to muddle through it because we don't have a choice. Some hard decisions are going to have to be made


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> History degree. Spanish Flu, Black Death, Antonine Plague, Justinian Plague.
> 
> Could be worse.




Yes.  And if we say, "It could be worse," in the manner of being dismissive, it _WILL BE_ worse.

The best way to make sure this turns into another 1918 is to discount how bad it could be, if we don't act properly.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> My wife, getting over her bronchitis, is thinking about getting back to work.  We are developing a pretty stringent sanitation plan.
> 
> 
> 
> Cufflinks? You could wipe those down easily enough.  But yeah, clothing should all be stuff that can go immediately into the waching machine.




It’s less about the cufflinks, and more about the French cuffs themselves.

But his cufflinks aren’t all metal, ether.  His collection is impressive in size & scope, including some of wood, cloth and even certain porous/delicate stones.  Best to simply drop them out of the equation.  One less thing to clean, if nothing else.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> That doesn't mean those suppliers should be open to the general public at this time.



If nothing else, it would be a difficult thing to police, not just practically, but legally.

A policy limiting # of customers inside at one time would be at least as effective and very easy to enforce.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Yes.  And if we say, "It could be worse," in the manner of being dismissive, it _WILL BE_ worse.
> 
> The best way to make sure this turns into another 1918 is to discount how bad it could be, if we don't act properly.




I'm not discounting but I've looked at previous things to compare with. Also looking at foreign countries like Ecudor.

There's already signs of food shortages for a variety of reasons. Here it's flour, we have plenty of it but there's a shortage of packaging and resupply is 6 weeks away. Flour Mills are still running, the store houses are 90% full.

This is the start. Starvation won't be a problem here, hunger is going to be a problem in say USA. Starvation is shaping up to be a problem in India.

Latin America is going to be hard hit.

Someone's going to take a look at Italy with say 30k dead which is less than 1% dead and go screw it the virus will kill less than mass hunger and starvation.

And it's going to be the perfectly rational choice to do that.

With previous pandemics it's often not the virus that kills but the wars, hunger, starvation etc. Suicide here with mental health has killed more, one of wife's ex workmate lost his son last week to that. Girls were crying as early news was the workmate not son.

If we can't get a vaccine the herd immunity plan is going to be the next least bad option. We might have to beat it the old fashioned way due to a lack of options.

It's not going to burn out in the next month or two.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> If we can't get a vaccine the herd immunity plan is going to be the next least bad option.




You realize that there is no scientific evidence that there is "herd immunity" for this disease, right?


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> You realize that there is no scientific evidence that there is "herd immunity" for this disease, right?




Yes, then we have to go with the next least bad option. No herd immunity, no vaccine, Covids recurring each year and/or in waves.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> You realize that there is no scientific evidence that there is "herd immunity" for this disease, right?




Is there evidence that herd immunity doesn’t work?


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Is there evidence that herd immunity doesn’t work?




We don't know if the virus will mutate.

There's no evidence herd immunity will work.

It's a bad choice because you might make it, suffer the shirt term effects and still deal with Covid recurring. It will likely work but it's far from certain. Assuming you're willing (or are forced to)

Keep an eye on Brazil. Ecudor and Mexico to see how it will work out, they're argueably done worse than the USA.

 Worst case scenario is along the lines of no herd immunity, no vaccine.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

FrogReaver said:


> Is there evidence that herd immunity doesn’t work?



I don't think anyone knows for sure one way or the other. So the more conservative assumption for now is that it does _not_ work, and to act accordingly, until enough data has been collected/studied to know for sure.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> Is there evidence that herd immunity doesn’t work?




Not yet.  The disease hasn't been around long enough for us to know.

"Herd immunity" is based on the population getting their immune systems exposed, and having long-lasting immunity to the disease after recovering from it.  Not all diseases produce long-lasting immunity - it largely depends on what portions of the immune system get triggered by exposure.  Some produce antibodies that you keep around almost forever, others don't.  We don't generally get immunity to the various viruses that produce "the common cold", for example.

If we don't acquire immunity through exposure, then we have a year and more to wait for a vaccine to produce it artificially.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> You realize that there is no scientific evidence that there is "herd immunity" for this disease, right?



Where do you expect to get 'scientific evidence' on a scale of several weeks (to date)?  Satisfying the exacting standards takes _years_.
Let's start with the data from experience so far - those dreaded anecdotes - and distill them into actionable information.  We are going to have to "rule of thumb" it for a while, and keep updating (hopefully this also means 'improving') the database as time goes on.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Zardnaar said:


> We don't know if the virus will mutate.




It will. But the evidence so far, and from what the top doctors are saying, is that it will be a much slower mutation rate than flu has. So that vaccine we may have by next Spring will be good for a couple of years versus the maybe one season for a flu vaccine.

We are also waiting for the antibody tests to be perfected so that we can start testing people who recovered to see if that made them immune to catching it again. Which would also mean we can use the plasma from those who recovered to treat people still ill with it.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Let's start with the data from experience so far - those dreaded anecdotes - and distill them into actionable information.




Even anecdotes take time.  Anecdotal evidence requires people ho have been exposed, tested positive, and exposed again to get it, or not.  

If you want to base on a generalization - don't expect herd immunity to develop without a vaccine.  We don't tend to develop long-term immunity against other coronaviruses - several of which cause common colds - so don't expect it here.


----------



## Zardnaar

They think a vaccine is a year away 1


Enevhar Aldarion said:


> It will. But the evidence so far, and from what the top doctors are saying, is that it will be a much slower mutation rate than flu has. So that vaccine we may have by next Spring will be good for a couple of years versus the maybe one season for a flu vaccine.
> 
> We are also waiting for the antibody tests to be perfected so that we can start testing people who recovered to see if that made them immune to catching it again. Which would also mean we can use the plasma from those who recovered to treat people still ill with it.




Yeah seems to be most like likely.

If herd immunity doesn't work and there's no vaccine we still have options, it's been done before but not since the 30s and 40s in a liberal democracy anyway.

Options are bad, worse, awful atm. Problem is we don't enough yet.

Our government's hoping we can wipe it out, even then the borders will still be closed.

They're looking at enforced quarentines for the trickle of people still arriving. Supermarkets have banned bring your own cloth bags and we banned plastic bags a while ago.

We can't keep that up for longer than 3 months it so, some form 6 months.

Lockdown ends in 2 weeks, I'm expecting them to extend it another 4 weeks.

Optimistic fools think it's business as usual in 2 weeks. School years probably done. Border will be closed until rest of the world sorts it out even if we wipe it out.


----------



## Umbran

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> It will. But the evidence so far, and from what the top doctors are saying, is that it will be a much slower mutation rate than flu has.




Let me fill in a picture here:

"Mutate" is perhaps not the word to be using here.

Influenza viruses typically have 8 different strands of genetic information.  The most common way for an influenza virus to change is not by what we usually call "mutation".  Instead, they trade among themselves - if you are infected with two different influenza strains at once, while they are reproducing in your body, they can _trade strands_.  In construction of child viruses, one may pick up seven of its own strands, and one from the other strain in your body.  Poof, you have a new influenza virus.  This is why we get new strains virtually every year, and we need new vaccines every year.

Covid-19 is caused by a single-strand virus.  It cannot trade genetic information in the same way.  Coronaviruses change largly by point-transcription errors in copying their genetic material, a much less frequent process, so the virus produces markedly new strains much less frequently, and a vaccine may be effective for much longer.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Anyone surprised?








						A 'Liberty' Rebellion in Idaho Threatens to Undermine Coronavirus Orders
					

SANDPOINT, Idaho -- Inside an old factory building north of Boise, a few dozen people gathered last week to hear from Ammon Bundy, the man who once led an armed takeover of an Oregon wildlife refuge.The meeting, which appeared to violate orders by Gov. Brad Little of Idaho to avoid group gatherings,




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Anyone surprised?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A 'Liberty' Rebellion in Idaho Threatens to Undermine Coronavirus Orders
> 
> 
> SANDPOINT, Idaho -- Inside an old factory building north of Boise, a few dozen people gathered last week to hear from Ammon Bundy, the man who once led an armed takeover of an Oregon wildlife refuge.The meeting, which appeared to violate orders by Gov. Brad Little of Idaho to avoid group gatherings,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




Its ironic that constitutional actions like theirs are the most likely thing to lead to actual martial law.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Re : mutation & herd immunity 

We know at least 8 different strains of Covid-19 are involved in the current pandemic.  So the virus IS mutating.  However, the strains are very similar, and it doesn’t seem to have a high mutation rate.  This makes researchers optimistic that IF a vaccine can be found, then it will be largely effective against all the known varieties.

Herd Immunity/resistance takes time and exposure, plus a bit of luck.  You have to have enough people get exposed to the infectious agent- either by catching the disease or by vaccination- that the illness has fewer hosts in which it could survive and propagate.  To reach that critical mass takes time.

The “luck“ is one part having enough people survive the infection to pass along what made them more resistant in the first place, and the other part being how effective our own antbodies and pharmaceuticals actually are against fighting it.

If the researchers I mentioned earlier are correct- that Covid-19 has been infecting humans months or years longer than we suspect- we might start seeing herd immunity put a speed bump in the contagion’s path sooner rather than later.


----------



## Zardnaar

World's watching.









						Coronavirus: New Zealand isn't just flattening the curve. It's squashing it
					

COMMENT: It's been less than two weeks since NZ imposed a lockdown so strict that swimming and hunting were banned.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				



 It on the WP behind a paywall.


----------



## NotAYakk

A problem has developed in my prediction of US deaths from Covid-19.

NYC, where most US deaths are, is now unable to diagnose people reliably before they die, and isn't testing dead people.

Prior to this crisis, ~20 people died at home each day.  Now ~200 people do earlier this week.  Those excess deaths may be because people are not seeking medical attention, or may be Covid-19 deaths.

My apologies.  I should have seen this coming; it happened in Italy as well.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> A problem has developed in my prediction of US deaths from Covid-19.
> 
> NYC, where most US deaths are, is now unable to diagnose people reliably before they die, and isn't testing dead people.
> 
> Prior to this crisis, ~20 people died at home each day.  Now ~200 people do earlier this week.  Those excess deaths may be because people are not seeking medical attention, or may be Covid-19 deaths.
> 
> My apologies.  I should have seen this coming; it happened in Italy as well.




 Count the bodies, compare pre Covid rate use the word estimated.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Its ironic that constitutional actions like theirs are the most likely thing to lead to actual martial law.



Apparently, “E Pluribus Unum” means nothing to some of my countrymen.

See also, “Divide et empirum“ and “A house divided against itself cannot stand." for similar wisdom.


----------



## Morrus

Folks, this is not a thread about American politics.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Re : mutation & herd immunity
> 
> We know at least 8 different strains of Covid-19 are involved in the current pandemic.  So the virus IS mutating.  However, the strains are very similar, and it doesn’t seem to have a high mutation rate.  This makes researchers optimistic that IF a vaccine can be found, then it will be largely effective against all the known varieties.
> 
> Herd Immunity/resistance takes time and exposure, plus a bit of luck.  You have to have enough people get exposed to the infectious agent- either by catching the disease or by vaccination- that the illness has fewer hosts in which it could survive and propagate.  To reach that critical mass takes time.
> 
> The “luck“ is one part having enough people survive the infection to pass along what made them more resistant in the first place, and the other part being how effective our own antbodies and pharmaceuticals actually are against fighting it.
> 
> If the researchers I mentioned earlier are correct- that Covid-19 has been infecting humans months or years longer than we suspect- we might start seeing herd immunity put a speed bump in the contagion’s path sooner rather than later.




I am not able to find anything to corroborate that there are 8 strains of Covid-19 causing virus.  Do you have a source?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> I am not able to find anything to corroborate that there are 8 strains of Covid-19 causing virus.  Do you have a source?




This article talks about the existence of multiple strains, but doesn’t say how many.








						COVID-19 Will Mutate — What That Means for a Vaccine
					

The new coronavirus has already mutated a handful of times, which has many people wondering whether the mutations could lead to a more severe, deadlier disease. But the new mutations are extremely similar to the original virus and don’t seem to be any more aggressive.




					www.healthline.com
				




This month-old article stated there were at least 2








						Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly?
					

Researchers in China say there are two strains of the new coronavirus, one of which is more aggressive – but the World Health Organization says the virus is stable




					www.newscientist.com
				




This article puts the current number at 8.
8 strains of the coronavirus are circling the globe. Here's what clues they're giving scientists.








						Nextstrain
					

Real-time tracking of pathogen evolution




					nextstrain.org
				




Here’s Nextstrain’s tracking map:


----------



## Zardnaar

I've read the 8 strands thing


Daily updates, 3rd day of declining numbers 50 new cases.

Total deaths. Still 1.

  The PM has classified the Easter bunny as essential.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> I've read the 8 strands thing
> 
> 
> Daily updates, 3rd day of declining numbers 50 new cases.
> 
> Total deaths. Still 1.
> 
> The PM has classified the Easter bunny as essential.



Sure.  Essential.  Feed the children, stuck indoors, piles of chocolate.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> Its ironic that constitutional actions like theirs are the most likely thing to lead to actual martial law.




The pandemic's Dr. Frankenstein - concentrating on the fact that they _can_ do a thing, without concern over whether they _should_.


----------



## Azzy

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We keep a small supply of basic masks on hand.  A few dozen or so.  But he has access to masks at his practice, so he generally doesn't need to use the home reserves to go to work.  So what we have should last a while.



I hade bought a box of surgical masks about a year ago because I went as a surgical doctor for Halloween. Since then, they've been rarely used (like if I'm sick and need to go out). I also snagged a box of rubber gloves about half a year ago for cleaning. Now, they are both my goto whenever I go out.


----------



## Zardnaar

Managed to last to day 15 of lockdown.





 Caved


----------



## Azzy

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Anyone surprised?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A 'Liberty' Rebellion in Idaho Threatens to Undermine Coronavirus Orders
> 
> 
> SANDPOINT, Idaho -- Inside an old factory building north of Boise, a few dozen people gathered last week to hear from Ammon Bundy, the man who once led an armed takeover of an Oregon wildlife refuge.The meeting, which appeared to violate orders by Gov. Brad Little of Idaho to avoid group gatherings,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



Nope. Here in the US, we are fighting two pandemics—COVID-19 and stupidity.


----------



## Zardnaar

Azzy said:


> Nope. Here in the US, we are fighting two pandemics—COVID-19 and stupidity.




 Can't fix stupidity.

4th day of declining cases. 50 new cases yesterday, 29 today. 

1 death(total), 14 in hospital, Deaths per million 0.2.









						Coronavirus update: 29 new cases; lockdown exit decision on April 20
					

Jacinda Ardern says she knows Kiwis are hurting, but NZ can't afford to change course.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 3 new developments
1. Mandatory quarentines for returning kiwis.
2. Mobile app technology being developed,  conversation with Singapores leader tonight about their app.
3. More testing and contact tracing.

 Also roadblocks being used this Easter. Stay at home no holidays.


----------



## Lem23

Azzy said:


> Nope. Here in the US, we are fighting two pandemics—COVID-19 and stupidity.




Honestly, if they could infect each other and somehow keep it to their own circle, they'd be doing the world a favour.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Zardnaar said:


> 4th day of declining cases. 50 new cases yesterday, 29 today.
> 1 death(total), 14 in hospital, Deaths per million 0.2.




When was your first case?

Where I am, British Columbia, Canada (If you take us alone without the rest of the country), we look pretty similar to NZ, except we've had 48 deaths. (Most of that is due to outbreaks in retirement homes early on). More than half our cases have recovered. Our first case was January 24, so pretty early. Took everyone awhile to figure out what to do.


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> When was your first case?
> 
> Where I am, British Columbia, Canada (If you take us alone without the rest of the country), we look pretty similar to NZ, except we've had 48 deaths. (Most of that is due to outbreaks in retirement homes early on). More than half our cases have recovered. Our first case was January 24, so pretty early. Took everyone awhile to figure out what to do.




 Late Feb or very early March.

 Something like Feb 28-March 2 idk. They weren't doing that much testing back then.


----------



## Ogre Mage

A woman in Seattle who has recovered from COVID-19 asks an interesting question -- what role should she and other coronavirus survivors play in this new world?



> "We’re likely immune to this virus, at least to some extent and for some amount of time ... Could my antibodies help treat patients with active cases of COVID-19? ... Some scientists and policymakers have suggested that people with COVID-19 antibodies should emerge from lockdown, go back to their workplaces and help jump-start the economy."




What role should I and other coronavirus survivors play in this new world?


----------



## Fenris-77

Still no cases in my remote part of the world.  The territorial government has done pretty well so far, but all that really means is a regression to the mean and back to the usual ineptitude and knee jerk policy making any day now. Like calling teachers back to the territory from other parts of the country where there _are_ cases so that those teachers can .... not teach live students anyway.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Can't fix stupidity.
> 
> 4th day of declining cases. 50 new cases yesterday, 29 today.
> 
> 1 death(total), 14 in hospital, Deaths per million 0.2.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus update: 29 new cases; lockdown exit decision on April 20
> 
> 
> Jacinda Ardern says she knows Kiwis are hurting, but NZ can't afford to change course.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 3 new developments
> 1. Mandatory quarentines for returning kiwis.
> 2. Mobile app technology being developed,  conversation with Singapores leader tonight about their app.
> 3. More testing and contact tracing.
> 
> Also roadblocks being used this Easter. Stay at home no holidays.



NZ, taking names and kicking ass!


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> NZ, taking names and kicking ass!




 South Pacific Police State. 

 These Russian beers hit hard.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ogre Mage said:


> A woman in Seattle who has recovered from COVID-19 asks an interesting question -- what role should she and other coronavirus survivors play in this new world?
> 
> 
> 
> What role should I and other coronavirus survivors play in this new world?




 They're the new upper class.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ogre Mage said:


> A woman in Seattle who has recovered from COVID-19 asks an interesting question -- what role should she and other coronavirus survivors play in this new world?
> 
> 
> 
> What role should I and other coronavirus survivors play in this new world?



How much immunity survivors have- and for how long- is a bit of an open question with Coronaviruses.  It could be a strong immunity that lasts years, it could be a weak one that lasts months, and any combination in between.

I don’t know how the distribution of survivors will be- which impacts “jump starting”- but probably the BEST thing they can do is donate blood & plasma to researchers,


----------



## Fenris-77

Zardnaar said:


> South Pacific Police State.
> 
> These Russian beers hit hard.



Hmm. SPPS has a ring to it. A certain je ne c'est quoi. I like it. Spasibo tovarishch.


----------



## Zardnaar

Fenris-77 said:


> Hmm. SPPS has a ring to it. A certain je ne c'est quoi. I like it. Spasibo tovarishch.




 I understand that. 

 I can read a handful of Russian words, menu, bar and place names. 

 My plan for this year was a booze cruise through Moldova, Ukraine, Russia that's not gonna happen.

Moron of the day award. Man's spits on police officer. 3 months jail.

Safety?








						Coronavirus: New Zealand third-safest in the world during Covid-19 pandemic
					

New Zealand behind only Israel and Singapore on safest country rankings.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 German planes flying over our cities. Granddad's rolling in his grave.








						Coronavirus: German pilot's tribute flyover to thank Christchurch during Covid-19 lockdown
					

A German airline pilot has performed a tribute flyover of Christchurch to thank the city for looking after German citizens during the alert level 4 lockdown.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## LuisCarlos17f

Sorry but I have to say this.

The Spanish president Pedro Sanchez's managament is the worst example, the Razzia or Ig-Nobel. Sometimes it seems like if they really wanted to terminate us. They are going to trials to be judged for criminal negligence and reckless manslaughter . I don't talk about any mistakes weeks ago but they are still doing wrong things. He is the pyromaniac firefighter, he should help but only is causing more damages. They are hindering the efforts by others to help. This is maybe the main reason to be ashamed for being Spanish.

We had got the sad record of percentage of infections and deaths.

And the tourism industry is too important for Spanish economy but after this it is going to be very bad years. And also there are serious suspects about electoral fraud. Lot of people, even young ones, are falling by fault of a total incompetent who didn't even was elected by the people. 

Are we going to give total control to an irresponsable who agravatted this health crisis? If this epidemic gives them absolute power to rule us then they will not hurry for its end.


----------



## Sadras

What is happening with all the dead in Italy, Spain and US? Is anyone even reporting on the distribution/disposal of the bodies? 
EDIT: I have read a few articles about the those refrigerated trucks in the streets in the US which can house 44 bodies but surely there is plan thereafter. I mean there are only a limited amount of those trucks available.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sadras said:


> What is happening with all the dead in Italy, Spain and US? Is anyone even reporting on the distribution/disposal of the bodies?




They were talking about mass graves in NYC, Italy and Spain nothing new for a while but they used the army to remove them from old folks homes. Carers had fled.

 Temporary morgues. In Italy you could go to the funeral.


----------



## Imaculata

Right now we're seeing a lot of people in power responding to this crisis like the mayor in Jaws, including the US president, Boris Johnson and several governors. I wonder if some of these folks realise how history is going to reflect on their actions.


And it seems I'm not alone in making that comparison. It is ironic and rather telling that Boris Johnson said in 2006 to an audience that he considers the mayor of Jaws the real hero of the story. And governor of Florida Ron DeSantis, insisting on keeping the beaches open, mirrors the movie all too well.


----------



## Umbran

Sadras said:


> What is happening with all the dead in Italy, Spain and US?






Zardnaar said:


> They were talking about mass graves in NYC...




The issue in the US is really a matter of processing time.  The morgues and cemeteries and crematories are built in response to the normal rates of death in the population.  Spikes of bodies can overwhelm them, just like the hospitals.  So, temporary storage may be needed.

"They" were talking nonsense.  The Powers That Be were not talking about mass graves in NYC.  They were talking about using parks as _temporary_ internment sites if the need arose.  These would _NOT_ be mass graves (the public here would not find that acceptable, yet), but individual graves dug on public lands.  The plan would be then to move remains to more proper sites or crematories after the crisis is over.  You can't do that with a mass grave, as you can't be sure you've got the correct remains.


----------



## Istbor

Man, I hope they burn me up or stick me in a compose heap. I don't need to take up real estate. Just put me back with my ancestors and star stuff in the Earth. And hopefully cheaply.

Saying now that US seems to be flattening the curve and 80,000 deaths by August is down to 60,000. I am not sure how much of that I believe, and while I understand the sentiment behind a report like that. I just hope it doesn't embolden others into thinking this is over and reigniting another wave too soon. Trying to find that article but so far unsuccessful. I think it came from CNN.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Istbor said:


> I just hope it doesn't embolden others into thinking this is over and reigniting another wave too soon. Trying to find that article but so far unsuccessful. I think it came from CNN.



We haven't even hit the peak yet here in the US, and there are already  a lot of pundits and politicians making rumbles about reopening things, Some are even falling back on an early tough-guy idea: _"It's not that bad, just let it run its course."_ At least one high-profile talking head recently pointed out that projections are lower than epidemiologists' initial fears, so why, he asked, should we listen to experts at all?

Humans-- and in particular, politically motivated ones-- are just really, _really_ bad at doing crisis.


----------



## Fenris-77

Humans are generally just bad at critical thinking. The heuristic nature of consciousness coupled with an immense and mostly dodgy information pool isn't a good match. Our clever monkey brains aren't designed for it by nature. Add in that most people are pretty lazy, mentally, and you have a recipe for conspiracy and nonsense.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dude... you're not raising my hopes any.


----------



## ad_hoc

Istbor said:


> Man, I hope they burn me up or stick me in a compose heap. I don't need to take up real estate. Just put me back with my ancestors and star stuff in the Earth. And hopefully cheaply.
> 
> Saying now that US seems to be flattening the curve and 80,000 deaths by August is down to 60,000. I am not sure how much of that I believe, and while I understand the sentiment behind a report like that. I just hope it doesn't embolden others into thinking this is over and reigniting another wave too soon. Trying to find that article but so far unsuccessful. I think it came from CNN.




20 states don't even have stay at home orders or have closed non-essential businesses. Even of the ones that have, a few have declared churches to be essential.

I would bet that things will get out of control a week after Easter.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

While this article starts by talking about the headline, it also talks about the different strains of the virus and how it is mutating:









						Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show
					

New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that travelers brought in the virus mainly from Europe, not Asia."The majority is clearly European," said Harm van Bakel, a geneticist at Icahn School




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> 20 states don't even have stay at home orders or have closed non-essential businesses. Even of the ones that have, a few have declared churches to be essential.
> 
> I would bet that things will get out of control a week after Easter.




just because no lockdown order doesn’t mean the citizens are not taking it seriously and social distancing on their own.


----------



## Sadras

Umbran said:


> *They were talking *about using parks as _temporary_ internment sites if the need arose.  These would _NOT_ be mass graves (the public here would not find that acceptable, yet), but individual graves dug on public lands.  The plan would be then to move remains to more proper sites or crematories after the crisis is over.




So has this moved beyond talking to actually doing? The stats reflect around 5k dead in New York. They would need over 100 refrigerated trucks to store them.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

FrogReaver said:


> just because no lockdown order doesn’t mean the citizens are not taking it seriously and social distancing on their own.



Agreed. That's pretty much what I've been seeing from my very limited view on things.

I wonder if there's an upper limit on the number of people who can be out there defying orders, without interfering too much with the greater effort to control it?
Presumably that can be modeled if one can guess what that "knucklehead factor" is?


----------



## Umbran

Sadras said:


> So has this moved beyond talking to actually doing? The stats reflect around 5k dead in New York. They would need over 100 refrigerated trucks to store them.




No.  And the Mayor of NYC says this is not a thing at all.









						NY mayor says rumors of temporary burials in public parks are 'totally false' | CNN
					

After a city councilman said New York may need to bury coronavirus victims in a city park as morgues run out of room, Mayor Bill de Blasio made it clear Monday there are no such plans and that such rumors are "totally false."'




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Azzy

ad_hoc said:


> I would bet that things will get out of control a week after Easter.




Probably. It seems that hyper-religious people are intent on killing themselves and their community.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> just because no lockdown order doesn’t mean the citizens are not taking it seriously and social distancing on their own.



True, but considering the number of people violating lockdown orders actually in place, what are the odds that at least the same kinds of numbers per capita are not taking social distancing seriously where orders don’t exist?

A Mayor Cracked Down On Parties During The Coronavirus Lockdown. His Wife Defied Him.









						After Clemson students party, officials enact more social-distancing restrictions
					

After police officers broke up a party Friday night, Clemson is considering how best to enforce social distancing guidelines at private residences amid COVID-19.



					www.greenvilleonline.com
				




See also the religious and political contrarians already mentioned in this thread.


----------



## Zardnaar

USA isn't really on lockdown.

We're on level 4, you guys are level 2/3 if that in certain areas.

No bottle stores, takeouts, big box retail etc. Hell Amazon's running and they had Covid in the warehouses.

 Day 16 here lockdown here. There was knocking at the door, went and answered it. Then realised I was talking to myself.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Azzy said:


> Probably. It seems that hyper-religious people are intent on killing themselves and their community.




At the risk of getting us all flagged for religious talk, that is fine with me. But then, I am Agnostic to almost Atheist, so the fewer religious fanatics in the world, the better the world is to me.


----------



## ad_hoc

To put America's 80 000 - 90 000 projected deaths in perspective - 

Canada just shared their models showing 11 000 to 22 000 deaths. 

The USA has 10x the population so that is the equivalent of 110 000 to 220 000 deaths.

The USA currently has almost 3x as many confirmed cases as Canada per capita (with fewer tests per capita) and has almost 4x as many deaths per capita.

Half of the USA is also not practicing social distancing. 

So that 80k-90k death prediction? Don't believe it for a second. They probably picked the model with the most optimistic result rather than a realistic one.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Zardnaar said:


> USA isn't really on lockdown.
> 
> We're on level 4, you guys are level 2/3 if that in certain areas.
> 
> No bottle stores, takeouts, big box retail etc. Hell Amazon's running and they had Covid in the warehouses.
> 
> Day 16 here lockdown here. There was knocking at the door, went and answered it. Then realised I was talking to myself.




And yet, your now former, Health Minister took his family to the beach in violation of the lock down:









						New Zealand health minister demoted after beach visit broke lockdown rules
					

David Clark called himself an ‘idiot’ for driving his family 20km to the beach on the first weekend of the national stay-at-home measures




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> True, but considering the number of people violating lockdown orders actually in place, what are the odds that at least the same kinds of numbers per capita are not taking social distancing seriously where orders don’t exist?
> 
> A Mayor Cracked Down On Parties During The Coronavirus Lockdown. His Wife Defied Him.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> After Clemson students party, officials enact more social-distancing restrictions
> 
> 
> After police officers broke up a party Friday night, Clemson is considering how best to enforce social distancing guidelines at private residences amid COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> www.greenvilleonline.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> See also the religious and political contrarians already mentioned in this thread.




small potatoes IMO.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> USA isn't really on lockdown.
> 
> We're on level 4, you guys are level 2/3 if that in certain areas.
> 
> No bottle stores, takeouts, big box retail etc. Hell Amazon's running and they had Covid in the warehouses.
> 
> Day 16 here lockdown here. There was knocking at the door, went and answered it. Then realised I was talking to myself.




true but we are doing enough to turn the tide. whatever we are doing is working. But what you are doing probably works faster


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> True, but considering the number of people violating lockdown orders actually in place, what are the odds that at least the same kinds of numbers per capita are not taking social distancing seriously where orders don’t exist?



That's why I'm wondering if there's that "knucklehead factor" I referred to. Is this sort of thing accounted for (or even accountable by) the sorts of models they run? If it is, I'd feel more secure in the models; if knuckleheads aren't figured in, then I'm more doubtful.

Unfortunately, my mathmuscles are so atrophied,  I couldn't follow model details, anyway. So just gotta trust the experts.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> To put America's 80 000 - 90 000 projected deaths in perspective -
> 
> Canada just shared their models showing 11 000 to 22 000 deaths.
> 
> The USA has 10x the population so that is the equivalent of 110 000 to 220 000 deaths.
> 
> The USA currently has almost 3x as many confirmed cases as Canada per capita (with fewer tests per capita) and has almost 4x as many deaths per capita.
> 
> Half of the USA is also not practicing social distancing.
> 
> So that 80k-90k death prediction? Don't believe it for a second. They probably picked the model with the most optimistic result rather than a realistic one.




i don’t believe covid-19 deaths depend on population at all. At some point population would be a limiting factor but we aren’t near that point yet.

population density matters though.  But that is still not a per capita measure.


----------



## Istbor

ad_hoc said:


> 20 states don't even have stay at home orders or have closed non-essential businesses. Even of the ones that have, a few have declared churches to be essential.
> 
> I would bet that things will get out of control a week after Easter.




Yep. Which is why I can't trust this claim on its face. Who are these experts? What are they basing this 'success' we are having on. 

We haven't even hit the peak and by all indications some states are just starting to ramp up this week.

So many unknowns. And so much worry over how this will affect our economy.


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> USA isn't really on lockdown.
> 
> We're on level 4, you guys are level 2/3 if that in certain areas.
> 
> No bottle stores, takeouts, big box retail etc. Hell Amazon's running and they had Covid in the warehouses.
> 
> Day 16 here lockdown here. There was knocking at the door, went and answered it. Then realised I was talking to myself.




I definitely get what you are saying. The USA is a different beast however. 

I am not even sure doing the type of lockdown NZ has done is even feasible here. Not only due to legal reasons and some states refusing to follow step, but some of out more... outspoken citizens would lose their stuff*. We already have freedom parties/protests. And plenty of people who are thinking the government is overreaching on this. Heck even our Attorney General was cited as saying they are watching and making sure we aren't trampling on rights too much right now.


----------



## Zardnaar

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> And yet, your now former, Health Minister took his family to the beach in violation of the lock down:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Zealand health minister demoted after beach visit broke lockdown rules
> 
> 
> David Clark called himself an ‘idiot’ for driving his family 20km to the beach on the first weekend of the national stay-at-home measures
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com




And he had his portfolio stripped. At the time it wasn't banned and he followed the guidelines for social distancing.

It's also why they're using roadblocks this Easter.

They're pragmatic enough to realize not everyone's going to follow the rules. A certain % of failing to comply is built into the numbers.

The worst case scenario was 80000 dead. They projected 4000 cases we brought that down to 1000 a few days ago.

Going to the beach isn't going to spread virus if you do social distancing. It's just a pain if emergency services are required.

One of my local beaches, 29 degrees centigrade day in October, 9am.






Busy beach in January. This is banned.





Most don't have lifeguards.

It's a pain if people take their jetskies to the beaches/lakes then require help.

People have broken their bubbles to administer CPR. The idea is minimise it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Istbor said:


> I definitely get what you are saying. The USA is a different beast however.
> 
> I am not even sure doing the type of lockdown NZ has done is even feasible here. Not only due to legal reasons and some states refusing to follow step, but some of out more... outspoken citizens would lose their stuff*. We already have freedom parties/protests. And plenty of people who are thinking the government is overreaching on this. Heck even our Attorney General was cited as saying they are watching and making sure we aren't trampling on rights too much right now.




  We don't have a lot of issues here other countries have.  Cultures different here. Polite version is we don't have that mercenary edge Americans have (everything's for sale),  or the left over class system UK has.

It's very laid back (bare feet in public), and the kiwi mentality avoids a lot of other problems.

By that I mean what are you? Kiwi.


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> i don’t believe covid-19 deaths depend on population at all. At some point population would be a limiting factor but we aren’t near that point yet.
> 
> population density matters though.  But that is still not a per capita measure.




The USA is 9x as dense as Canada.

Granted a lot of Canada is unpopulated but people are still pretty far apart compared to most countries.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> The USA is 9x as dense as Canada.
> 
> Granted a lot of Canada is unpopulated but people are still pretty far apart compared to most countries.




What I'm looking at is total travellers and tourists.

Per capita NZ has more tourists than USA by a factor of 3. US airports obviously have vastly more people going through total.

Australia is doing fairly well and they bungled it similar to UK. A single cruise ship has caused problems there, we banned cruise ships mid March iirc before lockdown by about a week.

Australia's the lucky country, population wise it's similar to NY state. NYC is getting it worse than Italy and Spain. Similar numbers but 1/3rd the population.

Population density definitely a factor IMHO. Not to hard to self isolate here, apartment living never caught on in any serious way.

They focused on contact tracing travellers and isolating positive tests. Then they expanded it to people in contact with positive hits, they're only starting testing the general population now.

They announced the alert system Saturday, had 2 cases of community spread same day or next day. Serious panic buying started Sunday, went to level 3 on Monday iirc, level 4 Wednesday and they had the economic stimulus plan the following weekend.

That Saturday was 20 days ago.

First week of lockdown everything was shut, freight collapsed overnight. They've loosened things up for delivery.

 Old folks have priority delivery from the supermarkets, other orders they pack for you but you have to pick it up.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

ad_hoc said:


> The USA is 9x as dense as Canada.Granted a lot of Canada is unpopulated but people are still pretty far apart compared to most countries.




That's sort-of true, but a lot of that is mistake of math - if you take the population (relatively small) and divide it by the area (absolutely huge) then you get low-density. But the reality is, most of the country has nearly no-one living in it, and the majority of the population is actually along a band along the border. If you take that population and area by itself, you get a population density that's pretty similar to other countries. 

The big cities (which is where most of our cases are) are reasonably dense.


----------



## Umbran

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> At the risk of getting us all flagged for religious talk, that is fine with me. But then, I am Agnostic to almost Atheist, so the fewer religious fanatics in the world, the better the world is to me.




We keep thinking of this disease in the form, "If I have contact with other people, I am at risk."  

But, for most individuals, the risk is small.  If you get it, you are most probably going to be asymptomatic.  If you develop symptoms, you probably won't need to go to the hospital.  If you do need to go to the hospital, you probably aren't going to die.  

Ergo, those folks going to church?  They aren't the ones going to die - sorry, Mr. Agnostic, but you're not gettign what you want.  But, they're going to pass it to several people, and they will pass it to several more - so, statistically, very shortly in the chain _after_ them, there are dead people.  But those people won't be selected by religion - they'll be selected by random contact.

This is a disease where, if you get it _someone else dies_.


----------



## ad_hoc

FitzTheRuke said:


> That's sort-of true, but a lot of that is mistake of math - if you take the population (relatively small) and divide it by the area (absolutely huge) then you get low-density. But the reality is, most of the country has nearly no-one living in it, and the majority of the population is actually along a band along the border. If you take that population and area by itself, you get a population density that's pretty similar to other countries.
> 
> The big cities (which is where most of our cases are) are reasonably dense.




I did say that.

The point is that America is not less dense than Canada.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> Who are these experts?




The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, or IHME, a research center at the University of Washington.









						IHME | COVID-19 Projections
					

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.




					covid19.healthdata.org
				






> What are they basing this 'success' we are having on.




Extensive modelling frequently updated with real data from the field.



> We haven't even hit the peak and by all indications some states are just starting to ramp up this week.




Yes, but the rates of new cases is changing - that's what you have to watch, and may indicate that the peak is coming sooner, rather than later.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, or IHME, a research center at the University of Washington.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> IHME | COVID-19 Projections
> 
> 
> Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> covid19.healthdata.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Extensive modelling frequently updated with real data from the field.
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, but the rates of new cases is changing - that's what you have to watch, and may indicate that the peak is coming sooner, rather than later.





This is the key part of their model:

"*COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"*

That is not even close to being the case. That's the problem.

Their model is predicting 60 000 deaths. 

That is only 4x as much as Canada's estimation with 10x the population. So their model is predicting that they come out of this much better than Canada does.

That just doesn't add up.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Umbran said:


> We keep thinking of this disease in the form, "If I have contact with other people, I am at risk."
> 
> But, for most individuals, the risk is small.  If you get it, you are most probably going to be asymptomatic.  If you develop symptoms, you probably won't need to go to the hospital.  If you do need to go to the hospital, you probably aren't going to die.
> 
> Ergo, those folks going to church?  They aren't the ones going to die - sorry, Mr. Agnostic, but you're not gettign what you want.  But, they're going to pass it to several people, and they will pass it to several more - so, statistically, very shortly in the chain _after_ them, there are dead people.  But those people won't be selected by religion - they'll be selected by random contact.
> 
> This is a disease where, if you get it _someone else dies_.




Oh, I know and the average religious person is alright, except when they form mindless mobs. No, it is more the fanatics, like I said. The type more likely to shoot non-believers than to shake their hand. For example, I do feel bad about the average Iranian dying from this, but their leaders who died? I won't finish that thought or I will be crossing the line in the rules here.


----------



## Zardnaar

CNN has done a write up on what we did. Couldn't remember exact dates.









						New Zealand has recorded 1 death from coronavirus. Here's how they did it
					

New Zealand has managed to do something that many countries wish they could achieve: for four straight days, it has reported a decline in new coronavirus cases.




					www.google.com
				




Washington Post also did one but it's behind a paywall.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> This is the key part of their model:
> 
> "*COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"*
> 
> That is not even close to being the case. That's the problem.
> 
> Their model is predicting 60 000 deaths.
> 
> That is only 4x as much as Canada's estimation with 10x the population. So their model is predicting that they come out of this much better than Canada does.
> 
> That just doesn't add up.




per capita doesn’t matter.


----------



## briggart

Sadras said:


> What is happening with all the dead in Italy, Spain and US? Is anyone even reporting on the distribution/disposal of the bodies?
> EDIT: I have read a few articles about the those refrigerated trucks in the streets in the US which can house 44 bodies but surely there is plan thereafter. I mean there are only a limited amount of those trucks available.



In Italy, bodies are mostly being cremated. Like in the US, the issue is not really the long term arrangement, rather the short term capability of morgues and crematories. At peak epidemic, the number of deaths in the worst affected part of the country exceeded the capabilities of local crematories, so coffins had to be moved elsewhere for cremation.


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> per capita doesn’t matter.




You're not making any sense.

But okay.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> small potatoes IMO.



There were 100+ at the Clemson gathering.  Other parties of similar size have popped up.  

To put that Clemson gathering in context, 121 people in this choir had a practice during the pandemic.  As of this article published 03/29/2020, 45 members- just a tad over 1/3 of them- have been diagnosed with Covid-19, with 2 fatalities.  








						A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens of members have COVID-19 and two are dead
					

The deadly outbreak among members of a choir has stunned health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.




					www.latimes.com
				




Seasonal flu has an R value of 1.3-1.4, meaning each infected person on average passes it along to 1.4 people.  If this happens 10 times, that’s 14 new cases.

Covid-19 has an R value of 3 or so.  As Prof. Hugh Montgomery points out, 10 repetitions of this translates into 59,000 new cases.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> This is a disease where, if you get it _someone else dies_.




That’s the key message, and that isn’t reaching some people.

The head football coach at OSU is already talking about getting his guys back on campus.  I’m paraphrasing- they’re young & healthy and can shrug it off.

Because he’s a football genius of sorts, nobody has pushed back with they’re young & healthy and can pass it along to others with ease.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

ad_hoc said:


> I did say that. The point is that America is not less dense than Canada.




My mistake. I thought you meant that America was 9x as dense as Canada.



FrogReaver said:


> per capita doesn’t matter.




In what way? I'm not sure I understand how that could be. I mean, I get that it's not a direct correlation, but you'd think it would "matter" at least a little, wouldn't it?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NYC has altered its policy on the unclaimed dead:








						New York City will bury unclaimed bodies on a remote island after 14 days because coronavirus deaths are overwhelming morgues
					

The city typically waits 30 days before interring bodies in mass graves on Hart Island, but the coronavirus' death toll is overwhelming the system.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Eltab

I'm going to be a contrarian:
The recovered Corona patients are a valuable resource.  We need to study the antibodies with a goal of building out Corona-resistance throughout the general population.  Ideally, that would mean vaccines.  But more likely getting a shot of antibodies.  What we will have to live with for a while is the idea that if you do get it, the chance of needing a hospital is exceedingly small, and the likelihood of needing Intensive Care is so small that our usual preparations for Flu Season are about the needed scale for the influx of patients.  Medically-fragile people are going to have to hang out with each other while staying away from people who can 'take a hit' but get back up again.  And vice versa.

So far we've been looking at this from the Medical point of view.  But we need to get more broad-minded and consider Supply Chain problems: where will the new masks, gowns, malaria-drug pills come from when we use up the stocks in the hospitals' Supply Room now?  Somebody is going to have to make them - alas that the _Fabricate_ spell is only a thing in our imagination - and that means people out around each other again.  Working.  You know, operating the economy.

One other bit: Coronaviruses and humanity are going to share the planet for as far as anybody can foresee.  Our response cannot be built around the idea "never let it touch me ever!"  We can deal with the Common Cold, with influenza, with the other sicknesses that viruses similar to Corona cause.  We have to be able to deal with this one too.


----------



## Zardnaar

Another example of a cluster identified here.

Bluff is a small town few thousand people.









						Coronavirus: How a wedding reception in Bluff created NZ's biggest Covid-19 cluster
					

A wedding reception was held in Bluff four days before New Zealand went into lockdown. More than 80 people are now sick.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




TLDR
1 person spread to 87 people.

 Wikipedia tells me Bluff has 1800 people. 

 It's in Southland in US terms the type if jokes that go around about Alabama or Kentucky we tell similar ones about Southland.


----------



## Zardnaar

44 new cases today, yesterday was 29. Second death 90 yo women. 1st one was 70 year old.


----------



## ad_hoc

Eltab said:


> I'm going to be a contrarian:
> The recovered Corona patients are a valuable resource.  We need to study the antibodies with a goal of building out Corona-resistance throughout the general population.  Ideally, that would mean vaccines.  But more likely getting a shot of antibodies.  What we will have to live with for a while is the idea that if you do get it, the chance of needing a hospital is exceedingly small, and the likelihood of needing Intensive Care is so small that our usual preparations for Flu Season are about the needed scale for the influx of patients.  Medically-fragile people are going to have to hang out with each other while staying away from people who can 'take a hit' but get back up again.  And vice versa.
> 
> So far we've been looking at this from the Medical point of view.  But we need to get more broad-minded and consider Supply Chain problems: where will the new masks, gowns, malaria-drug pills come from when we use up the stocks in the hospitals' Supply Room now?  Somebody is going to have to make them - alas that the _Fabricate_ spell is only a thing in our imagination - and that means people out around each other again.  Working.  You know, operating the economy.
> 
> One other bit: Coronaviruses and humanity are going to share the planet for as far as anybody can foresee.  Our response cannot be built around the idea "never let it touch me ever!"  We can deal with the Common Cold, with influenza, with the other sicknesses that viruses similar to Corona cause.  We have to be able to deal with this one too.




Canadian economists disagree with you. It's not just the moral thing to do, it is the most economical thing to do too.

Here is a model released today plotting the timeline of the pandemic.

As you can see with strict controls we can open up sooner rather than later. If we open up too soon then it's just going to get out of control again.

Better to do it all the way now and then get things fully underway again mid-late Summer.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Zardnaar said:


> 44 new cases today, yesterday was 29. Second death 90 yo women. 1st one was 70 year old.




We had 34 new cases and 2 new deaths. That brings our totals to 1370 cases (of which 838 have recovered) and 50 deaths. (Like I mentioned before, many of our early cases caused outbreaks in care facilities, unfortunately.)

BC population is also similar to New Zealand, I believe - We have 5 million. I think NZ has 4.8M?


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> We had 34 new cases and 2 new deaths. That brings our totals to 1370 cases (of which 838 have recovered) and 50 deaths. (Like I mentioned before, many of our early cases caused outbreaks in care facilities, unfortunately.)
> 
> BC population is also similar to New Zealand, I believe - We have 5 million. I think NZ has 4.8M?



4.9 they screwed the census up.

They're not sure how many are here give or take a few hundred thousand. We have a housing crisis and based on supermarket consumption of food it's probably 5 million or 5.1 million.

There's 100k visas running out in the next 3 months and another 400k on longer visas.
It's probably 4.9 maybe 5 million idk.

 Alot of tourists stuck, think it's 100k with 12k German's.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

FitzTheRuke said:


> We had 34 new cases and 2 new deaths. That brings our totals to 1370 cases (of which 838 have recovered) and 50 deaths. (Like I mentioned before, many of our early cases caused outbreaks in care facilities, unfortunately.)
> 
> BC population is also similar to New Zealand, I believe - We have 5 million. I think NZ has 4.8M?




I mentioned before that I am in the state of Virginia, so here are some numbers just for here. With a population of about 8.5 million, there are currently just over 4000 confirmed cases, with only 109 deaths so far. And like New York state, nearly half of our cases are clumped around a major urban center, in this case Washington DC. Then another large chunk of cases are along the Interstate-95 corridor and between that and the coast. Away from DC and west of 95, life could almost be considered normal, but that is probably because our governor was one of the first to close all the schools and limit business activity, which helped to slow the spread into the more rural parts of the state. My city is around 75-80k pop and has 21 confirmed cases right now.


----------



## Imaculata

Just yesterday I saw the most astounding thing. People buying a new grill and carpet. Seriously?! The government sends out a stay at home request, and to only go out for bare essentials, and people still go shopping for a new grill and do home renovations?! Well I hope that new grill is worth it. Because some of those people in the same store may end up dead because you wanted to have a barbeque.



Enevhar Aldarion said:


> At the risk of getting us all flagged for religious talk, that is fine with me. But then, I am Agnostic to almost Atheist, so the fewer religious fanatics in the world, the better the world is to me.




But all those fools gathering in a church during a deadly epidemic are not just going to infect themselves, but also others, like you and me.

People should be avoiding any social gatherings right now, and not just churches. For states to make an exemption for churches, is down right criminal. It is a death sentence for many people.



Dannyalcatraz said:


> That’s the key message, and that isn’t reaching some people.
> 
> The head football coach at OSU is already talking about getting his guys back on campus.  I’m paraphrasing- they’re young & healthy and can shrug it off.
> 
> Because he’s a football genius of sorts, nobody has pushed back with they’re young & healthy and can pass it along to others with ease.




A lot of governments world wide have failed to communicate this clearly. Just because younger people aren't high risk, does not mean they are at no risk. Just a few weeks ago, a 20 year old died in my town from COVID19. And a few weeks earlier a 16 year old had to be hospitilized and kept in an artifical coma for several weeks (he got better fortunately). Just because you're not in the high risk group, does not mean this virus can't kill you. It has already killed several people who were young and in good health.

Plus, as you correctly pointed out, you can still spread it to others.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> Just yesterday I saw the most astounding thing. People buying a new grill and carpet. Seriously?! The government sends out a stay at home request, and to only go out for bare essentials, and people still go shopping for a new grill and do home renovations?! Well I hope that new grill is worth it. Because some of those people in the same store may end up dead because you wanted to have a barbeque.
> 
> 
> 
> But all those fools gathering in a church during a deadly epidemic are not just going to infect themselves, but also others, like you and me.
> 
> People should be avoiding any social gatherings right now, and not just churches. For states to make an exemption for churches, it down right criminal. It is a death sentence for many people.
> 
> 
> 
> A lot of governments world wide have failed to communicate this clearly. Just because younger people aren't high risk, does not mean they are at no risk. Just a few weeks ago, a 20 year old died in my town from COVID19. And a few weeks earlier a 16 year old had to be hospitilized and kept in an artifical coma for several weeks (he got better fortunately). Just because you're not in the high risk group, does not mean this virus can't kill you. It has already killed several people who were young and in good health.
> 
> Plus, as you correctly pointed out, you can still spread it to others.




As I said you guys aren't in serious lockdown. They didn't want people going to the beaches, holiday homes etc. 

They had cops on roadblocks here to restrict traffic for Easter.

We were gonna go to Christchurch for Easter then a river, then patted the cat and watching Netflix.

 Getting lots of practice cooking.


----------



## Umbran

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> No, it is more the fanatics, like I said. The type more likely to shoot non-believers than to shake their hand.




*Mod Note:*

Please stop the religious commentary, or you will have to be removed from this discussion.  Thank you.


----------



## tomBitonti

The latest (10-Apr-20, 10 AM EDT) at United States Coronavirus: 469,464 Cases and 16,711 Deaths - Worldometer seems to be showing a steady state for new cases in the US over the last few days.

My very speculative conclusion is that the current social distancing is enough to prevent exponential spread, but only just that.  Which would mean either continuing current practices for quite a while -- until spreading slows because a large enough proportion of people have been infected — or enacting more severe distancing practices.

Edit: This is an interesting read: https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
While I don‘t understand the medical terminology in sections, the report is mostly comprehensible.  I found page 12 — describing the disease in detail — and page 21 — recommendations for infected countries — to be good reads.

Be safe and be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## FrogReaver

tomBitonti said:


> The latest (10-Apr-20, 10 AM EDT) at United States Coronavirus: 469,464 Cases and 16,711 Deaths - Worldometer seems to be showing a steady state for new cases in the US over the last few days.
> 
> My very speculative conclusion is that the current social distancing is enough to prevent exponential spread, but only just that.  Which would mean either continuing current practices for quite a while -- until spreading slows because a large enough proportion of people have been infected — or enacting more severe distancing practices.
> 
> Edit: This is an interesting read: https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
> While I don‘t understand the medical terminology in sections, the report is mostly comprehensible.  I found page 12 — describing the disease in detail — and page 21 — recommendations for infected countries — to be good reads.
> 
> Be safe and be well,
> Tom Bitonti




deaths follow social distancing by a week or 2.  I think we will see the deaths per day start to lower in the next few days in the U.S.  

I’m seriously questioning even the current 60,000 number.  I’m thinking more like 40,000.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I see good leadership, 









						Iceland has tested more of its population for coronavirus than anywhere else. Here's what it learned
					

No country or scientist or doctor has all the answers about the COVID-19 pandemic that has swept the globe. Tiny Iceland may have more than most.




					news.yahoo.com
				




I see bad leadership,
Florida Governor Spreads Dangerous Falsehood About Who Dies From Coronavirus


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I see good leadership,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Iceland has tested more of its population for coronavirus than anywhere else. Here's what it learned
> 
> 
> No country or scientist or doctor has all the answers about the COVID-19 pandemic that has swept the globe. Tiny Iceland may have more than most.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I see bad leadership,
> Florida Governor Spreads Dangerous Falsehood About Who Dies From Coronavirus




Yeah, this is why I don't believe the models showing the USA coming out of this any time soon.

I think a lot of people are only looking at the number of deaths too. Being on a ventilator is not a pleasant experience and could result in permanent lung damage. The young may not be dying as often but they can still be in for a rough time.

Hospitalization rates also has a huge collateral effect on people seeking treatment for other illnesses as well as putting a lot of stress on the medical system incl. staff etc. It can only take so much before breaking.

New York State is leveling off but I think other states are just starting to pick up momentum.


----------



## tomBitonti

FrogReaver said:


> deaths follow social distancing by a week or 2.  I think we will see the deaths per day start to lower in the next few days in the U.S.
> 
> I’m seriously questioning even the current 60,000 number.  I’m thinking more like 40,000.




What 60k number?

Contradicting the steady state of deaths/day, the number of active cases is still increasing.  Perhaps that can be explained by increases in the number of people that are tested.

Tom Bitonti


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> Yeah, this is why I don't believe the models showing the USA coming out of this any time soon.




The models are updated with data from the real world - so the pattern of what we have been doing so far is included in the results.

There will be some question around any prediction as to how well its assumptions hold.  At least these assumptions are explicit.  In our personal opinions, not so much.



> I think a lot of people are only looking at the number of deaths too.




Duffers on the internet, sure.  Folks who actually make a living at this stuff, however, are not "a lot of people".


----------



## Janx

These two things are not the same.



Imaculata said:


> Just yesterday I saw the most astounding thing. People buying a new grill and carpet. Seriously?! The government sends out a stay at home request, and to only go out for bare essentials, and people still go shopping for a new grill and do home renovations?! Well I hope that new grill is worth it. Because some of those people in the same store may end up dead because you wanted to have a barbeque.






Imaculata said:


> But all those fools gathering in a church during a deadly epidemic are not just going to infect themselves, but also others, like you and me.
> 
> People should be avoiding any social gatherings right now, and not just churches. For states to make an exemption for churches, is down right criminal. It is a death sentence for many people.




20 people in a room singing and flinging vocal spray at each other is not the same as a lonely ride in a truck to Home Despot, a quiet walk down the aisles to get a rug and boxed grill to a checkout counter with a plexiglass barrier and a zap gun to read the bar-code.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> The models are updated with data from the real world - so the pattern of what we have been doing so far is included in the results.
> 
> There will be some question around any prediction as to how well its assumptions hold.  At least these assumptions are explicit.  In our personal opinions, not so much.
> 
> 
> 
> Duffers on the internet, sure.  Folks who actually make a living at this stuff, however, are not "a lot of people".




It's just hard for me to see how very different models could both be correct.

Canada has projected 4400 to 22 000 deaths if we continue our lockdown.

The USA has projected 60 000 deaths?

California currently has the same population, confirmed cases, and deaths as Canada and is also under a similar lockdown. That projection that was provided is estimating 1600 deaths from California.

What is so different about Canada that they're expecting a lot more deaths comparatively than the USA which even has large parts of the country not in a lockdown?

That same site is predicting that France experiences a total of 15 700 deaths (14 000 to 20 500 range) and they are currently at 13 200 deaths with 1000 deaths per day. France deaths projected on April 10th (today) is 164 and they are currently at 987.

This is in a country which is actually in lockdown too.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> It's just hard for me to see how very different models could both be correct.
> 
> Canada has projected 4400 to 22 000 deaths if we continue our lockdown.
> 
> The USA has projected 60 000 deaths?




I can't really say much, as I don't know anything about that Canadian prediction.

One thing to note - and I have linked to articles about this a couple times in this thread already, iirc - is that there's lots of models, they don't all agree, and all the models have really wide margins of error.  This is a usual bit of failure in media coverage of science - talking only about the "most likely" prediction, and not mentioning how much higher or lower it might be.

It is possible for the base predictions of two models to disagree, but _fall within each other's margins for error_.  I don't know if that's the case here, but when some models predict "most likely a hundred thousand, but upper limit is 2 million" I could imagine that happening.

It is like - we both try to predict the number of cookies a child will eat.  I predict 7 cookies, plus or minus 6.  You predict 10 cookies, plus or minus 5.  We fit within each other's margins of error, so who knows who is correct?

For those who just cannot believe that there may be a peak in sight, perhaps this will be informative - the absolute rate of the moment may be less indicative than the doubling time:









						Are We Flattening The Curve? States Keep Watch On Coronavirus 'Doubling Times'
					

It is starting to take more time for cases, hospitalizations and deaths to double in several states, indicating social distancing is working. Here's how to make sense of those numbers.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Istbor

Umbran said:


> The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, or IHME, a research center at the University of Washington.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> IHME | COVID-19 Projections
> 
> 
> Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> covid19.healthdata.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Extensive modelling frequently updated with real data from the field.
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, but the rates of new cases is changing - that's what you have to watch, and may indicate that the peak is coming sooner, rather than later.




Alright thanks for the link, the article I read only eluded to this particular model without directly linking to it. Thanks media.

Sounding now like at least my states peak isn't until perhaps the first week of May. I think just trying to keep track of it in the US is going to be odd. Simply because it isn't hitting all states at the same time or at the same level of impact.


----------



## tomBitonti

Umbran said:


> I can't really say much, as I don't know anything about that Canadian prediction.
> 
> One thing to note - and I have linked to articles about this a couple times in this thread already, iirc - is that there's lots of models, they don't all agree, and all the models have really wide margins of error.  This is a usual bit of failure in media coverage of science - talking only about the "most likely" prediction, and not mentioning how much higher or lower it might be.
> 
> It is possible for the base predictions of two models to disagree, but _fall within each other's margins for error_.  I don't know if that's the case here, but when some models predict "most likely a hundred thousand, but upper limit is 2 million" I could imagine that happening.
> 
> It is like - we both try to predict the number of cookies a child will eat.  I predict 7 cookies, plus or minus 6.  You predict 10 cookies, plus or minus 5.  We fit within each other's margins of error, so who knows who is correct?
> 
> For those who just cannot believe that there may be a peak in sight, perhaps this will be informative - the absolute rate of the moment may be less indicative than the doubling time:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Are We Flattening The Curve? States Keep Watch On Coronavirus 'Doubling Times'
> 
> 
> It is starting to take more time for cases, hospitalizations and deaths to double in several states, indicating social distancing is working. Here's how to make sense of those numbers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org




Nice article! A minor data presentation nit: The “doubling lines” are better viewed as being attached to the curve endpoints, instead of at the origin.  What region one of curves is in is not indicative of the current rate of growth, which is indicated by the slope at the endpoint.  One might mistakenly think that because a curves lies between two of the doubling lines that the current doubling rate of that curve lies between the doubling values of those lines.

Edit: As the rate of spread is changing, there becomes a difference between the rate of doubling of the total who have become infected and the a doubling of the rate at which new persons are infected.

Thx!
Tom Bitonti


----------



## tomBitonti

Istbor said:


> Alright thanks for the link, the article I read only eluded to this particular model without directly linking to it. Thanks media.
> 
> Sounding now like at least my states peak isn't until perhaps the first week of May. I think just trying to keep track of it in the US is going to be odd. Simply because it isn't hitting all states at the same time or at the same level of impact.




These projections —IHME | COVID-19 Projections — seem dubious, with peaks being reached tomorrow.  I don’t see how the projected curve matches other statistics that I’ve see.  Are we anywhere close to an overall steady state (in the US), that is, where the number of new cases matches the number who are clinically post infection?  A downturn requires at least that, and we don’t seem to be even there yet.

Be safe and be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## ad_hoc

I looked into the Canada projections of 11 000 to 22 000 deaths.

They are guessing an infection amount of 2.5%-5% of the population.

Then they are taking that number and assuming roughly 1.2% die.

I am sure they are taking into account that not all cases are recorded. The actual death rate of confirmed cases will be higher than 1.2% (the current death rate of confirmed cases is 2.4%).

The USA equivalent to this forecast would be 100 000 to 200 000 deaths. The figure Dr. Fauci originally predicted before changing to 60 000.

Those projections are also showing many states hitting the bottom of their curve by May 1st with the entire country recovering by June 1st.

Perhaps Canada is far behind but they have projected 'mid-summer' for the end of the first wave only if they do a very good job of containment.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

While several epidemiologists have predicted a high probability of a second wave of Covid-19, they seemed to be mostly talking about previously uninfected people falling ill.

However, there’s another wrinkle just recently coming to light: people who were recovering are testing positive again.








						Recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in blow to immunity hopes
					

South Korea reported on Friday that 91 recovered coronavirus patients have tested positive for the disease again, raising questions over health experts' understanding of the pandemic. The prospect of people being re-infected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are...




					www.yahoo.com
				




As the article states, they don’t know yet WHY this is happening.  Some could be false positive tests, but not all, since some of the Re-infected are displaying symptoms.  Some could be false recoveries. Some could be re-infections, possibly by other strains, or demonstrating that infection-based immunity to Covid-19 is vanishingly brief.  Least likely, but still possible, is something seen in non-coronaviruses, namely going dormant for a while then re-emerging.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> While several epidemiologists have predicted a high probability of a second wave of Covid-19, they seemed to be mostly talking about previously uninfected people falling ill.
> 
> However, there’s another wrinkle just recently coming to light: people who were recovering are testing positive again.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in blow to immunity hopes
> 
> 
> South Korea reported on Friday that 91 recovered coronavirus patients have tested positive for the disease again, raising questions over health experts' understanding of the pandemic. The prospect of people being re-infected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As the article states, they don’t know yet WHY this is happening.  Some could be false positive tests, but not all, since some of the Re-infected are displaying symptoms.  Some could be false recoveries. Some could be re-infections, possibly by other strains, or demonstrating that infection-based immunity to Covid-19 is vanishingly brief.  Least likely, but still possible, is something seen in non-coronaviruses, namely going dormant for a while then re-emerging.




Maybe they caught the flu and now have a false positive test?


----------



## Zardnaar

60 k seems more accurate to me, which is Vietnam war level.

The only pattern seems to be 3-4 weeks of peak death toll. Even if the government does nothing people hide.

3-5 months to burn out.

Projections we have here.

1. Strict lockdown over in about June. Low fatalities, over sooner. More economic pain short term (we have 60% workforce at home).

2. Herd immunity plan more death, burns out faster but not as fast as 1.

3. Half assed lockdown. Less fatalities than 2 won't be over until near end of year.

 Doesn't include wave 2 or 3 if there's more.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> While several epidemiologists have predicted a high probability of a second wave of Covid-19, they seemed to be mostly talking about previously uninfected people falling ill.
> 
> However, there’s another wrinkle just recently coming to light: people who were recovering are testing positive again.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in blow to immunity hopes
> 
> 
> South Korea reported on Friday that 91 recovered coronavirus patients have tested positive for the disease again, raising questions over health experts' understanding of the pandemic. The prospect of people being re-infected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As the article states, they don’t know yet WHY this is happening.  Some could be false positive tests, but not all, since some of the Re-infected are displaying symptoms.  Some could be false recoveries. Some could be re-infections, possibly by other strains, or demonstrating that infection-based immunity to Covid-19 is vanishingly brief.  Least likely, but still possible, is something seen in non-coronaviruses, namely going dormant for a while then re-emerging.




Seen that.

Doomsday case
As worst case Covid mutates becomes more lethal


Worst case.
Covids recurring, no vaccine

Less bad
Covids recurring, eventual vaccine

Best case.
Covid burns itself out, vaccine quicker than anticipated.

Anyone who had it needs to be isolated until vaccine is developed. Some authoritarian regimes would have another cheaper option.

Bad, worse, awful pick one.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Maybe they caught the flu and now have a false positive test?



AFAIK, while the symptoms may similar enough to prompt a retest, flu won’t give you a false positive.  

False positive readings in the previously infected could result from inescapable flaws in the test, from the particular test used actually being defective in some way, or being so sensitive that it’s detecting the presence of the virus from the aftermath of the infection.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> AFAIK, while the symptoms may similar enough to prompt a retest, flu won’t give you a false positive.
> 
> False positive readings in the previously infected could result from inescapable flaws in the test, from the particular test used actually being defective in some way, or being so sensitive that it’s detecting the presence of the virus from the aftermath of the infection.




I didn't claim flu would give a false positive.  I said they could have flu while also getting a false positive.  2 independent actions...


----------



## Zardnaar

I'm not gonna worry until we have more info. I'll file it with the cat thing.

 Fortess NZ is our best case.









						Coronavirus: What is Fortress New Zealand going to look like?
					

OPINION: We might get out of the lockdown relatively soon. But life isn't going back to normal for a long time.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> I'm not gonna worry until we have more info. I'll file it with the cat thing.




Not worried about cats either.  If they can get it then they get it much less severely/frequently than humans do. 

Not worried about less than 100 people that appear to have gotten it again.  When nearly 1.7 million cases have been discovered, the possibility of 100 people getting it again could have so many explanations.
1.  Different virus with a false positive coronavirus test.
2.  something special about those people allowed them to actually get it again but that doesn't apply to most people.
3.  Test is so sensitive it's picking up inactive virus still in their bodies.

IMO Give it at least a few thousand people getting it again before I start getting worried that this virus will have an extremely short immunity period.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

Zardnaar said:


> I'm not gonna worry until we have more info. I'll file it with the cat thing.
> 
> Fortess NZ is our best case.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: What is Fortress New Zealand going to look like?
> 
> 
> OPINION: We might get out of the lockdown relatively soon. But life isn't going back to normal for a long time.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz



Cat thing?


----------



## FrogReaver

Son of the Serpent said:


> Cat thing?




A few cats and dogs and tigers tested positive.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> I didn't claim flu would give a false positive.  I said they could have flu while also getting a false positive.  2 independent actions...



Well, true- there are MDs reporting cases of people with both the flu and Covid-19 simultaneously.

But I don’t follow what your point is.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well, true- there are MDs reporting cases of people with both the flu and Covid-19 simultaneously.
> 
> But I don’t follow what your point is.



You cited people with symptoms. I was suggesting the explanation for 91 cases out of 1.7 million may be more coincidence instead of representative.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

FrogReaver said:


> A few cats and dogs and tigers tested positive.



Oh.  Ok.  I wasnt sure what he was saying.

There are actually a lot of animals that can transmit it.


----------



## FrogReaver

Son of the Serpent said:


> Oh.  Ok.  I wasnt sure what he was saying.
> 
> There are actually a lot of animals that can transmit it.




evidence?


----------



## FrogReaver

Maybe I'm the only one that didn't know this - but it appears flu spreads a lot like Covid-19 with many asymptomatic to mildly symptomatic people.

Even If You Don't Have Symptoms, You May Still Have The Flu


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

FrogReaver said:


> Not worried about cats either.  If they can get it then they get it much less severely/frequently than humans do.
> 
> Not worried about less than 100 people that appear to have gotten it again.  When nearly 1.7 million cases have been discovered, the possibility of 100 people getting it again could have so many explanations.
> 1.  Different virus with a false positive coronavirus test.
> 2.  something special about those people allowed them to actually get it again but that doesn't apply to most people.
> 3.  Test is so sensitive it's picking up inactive virus still in their bodies.
> 
> IMO Give it at least a few thousand people getting it again before I start getting worried that this virus will have an extremely short immunity period.




No, that article is specifically about cases in South Korea and it is 91 supposedly testing positive again out of the 7000 who were previously reported as recovered. 91 out of 7000 is a bit different than 91 out of 1.7 million.


----------



## FrogReaver

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> No, that article is specifically about cases in South Korea and it is 91 supposedly testing positive again out of the 7000 who were previously reported as recovered. 91 out of 7000 is a bit different than 91 out of 1.7 million.




Your right I should be using the worldwide recovered figure (the south korea recovered figure is still the wrong one).  376,000 instead 0f 1,700,000.  Same difference.  It's just as likely to be a coincidence or faulty test when it's 91 people out of 376,000


----------



## Zardnaar

Day 17 or lockdown, 23 of self isolating in my South Pacific Police State. 

29 new cases, 4 deaths total (all over 70) one of the clusters in old folks home more deaths expected.









						Coronavirus: Death toll up to four in New Zealand
					

A man in his 80s died in Wellington Hospital and a man in his 70s died in Christchurch of coronavirus.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 In D&D news wife's rolling up a Rogue/Illusionist for Castles and Crusades.


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> Your right I should be using the worldwide recovered figure (the south korea recovered figure is still the wrong one).  376,000 instead 0f 1,700,000.  Same difference.  It's just as likely to be a coincidence or faulty test when it's 91 people out of 376,000




They haven't retested 376 000 people.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> They haven't retested 376 000 people.




That's the point.  91 people confirmed by test to have it after recovering out of 376,000 people altogether.  The odds there are just as likely to be coincidence due to faulty tests or any other number of reasons that wouldn't apply to a broader population.  Get back to me if/when they find more.


----------



## FrogReaver

tomBitonti said:


> These projections —IHME | COVID-19 Projections — seem dubious, with peaks being reached tomorrow.  I don’t see how the projected curve matches other statistics that I’ve see.  Are we anywhere close to an overall steady state (in the US), that is, where the number of new cases matches the number who are clinically post infection?  A downturn requires at least that, and we don’t seem to be even there yet.
> 
> Be safe and be well,
> Tom Bitonti




Our new cases per day is very close to stable at the moment.  If it's going up per day then it barely is.  That's enough to cause the death rate to drop significantly.


----------



## FrogReaver

This is particularly amazing!

Apple, Google bring COVID-19 contact-tracing to 3 billion people


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> That's the point.  91 people confirmed by test to have it after recovering out of 376,000 people altogether.  The odds there are just as likely to be coincidence due to faulty tests or any other number of reasons that wouldn't apply to a broader population.  Get back to me if/when they find more.




No one has said that it has been proven.

It was just a thing someone posted saying that it happened.

There is no need to be so argumentative. I think you're reading way more into things than what is really there.

If you're not interested you can also just move along too.


----------



## Azzy

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I see bad leadership,
> Florida Governor Spreads Dangerous Falsehood About Who Dies From Coronavirus




I would like to state for the record that I did not vote for this dumbass.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

Azzy said:


> I would like to state for the record that I did not vote for this dumbass.



Neither did i.  Fortunately im not an american.  

Unfortunately i am an earthling and politicians cover this planet.  

Why do 99% of politicians suck so bad?  :'(


----------



## Zardnaar

Son of the Serpent said:


> Neither did i.  Fortunately im not an american.
> 
> Unfortunately i am an earthling and politicians cover this planet.
> 
> Why do 99% of politicians suck so bad?  :'(




I've been joking on other forums that New Zealand should run the world as everyone else is so bad at it.

In 1776 US had 4 million people. We've got 5. Give us our own continent and 200 years.

Might have to annex Canada and Norway. We'll need help to run the world.

I can promise the velvet glove, milk powder, Rugby with nice biscuits and chocolate. NFL will be banned though replaced with Rugby. Baseball also banned you get cricket.


----------



## Azzy

Son of the Serpent said:


> Neither did i.  Fortunately im not an american.
> 
> Unfortunately i am an earthling and politicians cover this planet.
> 
> Why do 99% of politicians suck so bad?  :'(



There are two schools of thought on this:

"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men."
—John Emerich Edward Dalberg Acton, first Baron Acton (1834–1902)

"All governments suffer a recurring problem: Power attracts pathological personalities. It is not that power corrupts but that it is magnetic to the corruptible."
—Frank Herbert (1920–1986), Chapterhouse: Dune

Personally, I find that there is truth in both statements—power is, indeed, an intoxicant that easily corrupts those that hold it, but it also a siren's song to those whose hearts are already corrupt.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> I didn't claim flu would give a false positive.  I said they could have flu while also getting a false positive.  2 independent actions...




While that could happen... it is a bit of an odd coincidence.  A person who had covid-19, and got tested positive, recovered, and then caught the flu, and have had a bad test? You'd not expect it to happen often.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Son of the Serpent said:


> Why do 99% of politicians suck so bad?  :'(




Because they’re not YOUR politicians! 

It’s an old political science truism that incumbents have an advantage because the people who voted for them kinda blind themselves to the flaws everyone else sees.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Azzy said:


> Personally, I find that there is truth in both statements—power is, indeed, an intoxicant that easily corrupts those that hold it, but it also a siren's song to those whose hearts are already corrupt.




As several studies have pointed out, career politicians on all parts of the political spectrum tend to have personality traits very strongly associated with the so-called Dark Triad.









						Research ties dark personality traits to political campaigning
					

Selinsgrove — New research from Susquehanna University political scientist Rolfe Peterson finds that personality traits known as the Dark Triad – Machiavellianism, narcissism and psychopathy – show themselves at higher




					www.northcentralpa.com
				








__





						Dark triad - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> That's the point.  91 people confirmed by test to have it after recovering out of 376,000 people altogether.  The odds there are just as likely to be coincidence due to faulty tests or any other number of reasons that wouldn't apply to a broader population.  Get back to me if/when they find more.




I'm not sure that's right.  The point is that _very few_ people later get retested after recovery.  So, to get 91 is probably a disturbingly large number of the retests...


----------



## Son of the Serpent

Zardnaar said:


> I've been joking on other forums that New Zealand should run the world as everyone else is so bad at it.
> 
> In 1776 US had 4 million people. We've got 5. Give us our own continent and 200 years.
> 
> Might have to annex Canada and Norway. We'll need help to run the world.
> 
> I can promise the velvet glove, milk powder, Rugby with nice biscuits and chocolate. NFL will be banned though replaced with Rugby. Baseball also banned you get cricket.



Tbh, i would prefer a global drop in population.  Not a rise.

Obligatory "not advocating genocide.  Just talking about people just having a tendancy to feel like having children a just a little less for a few generations or some magical thinking like that which has no rational explanation and would never happen but is what id like to see.  Clearly no genocidal rhetoric here.  Dont suddenly start saying i said something like that."

Statement which is directed at no one in particular.  Just obligatory.  And a chore.

Leave norway alone!  Iceland will have no military if norway is gone!

This whole comment is supposed to be a joke.  Except the first line.  Kinda do think we are getting to the point where we REALLY dont need more humans nearly as much as we need less humans.


----------



## Hussar

FrogReaver said:


> This is particularly amazing!
> 
> Apple, Google bring COVID-19 contact-tracing to 3 billion people



Amazing and amazingly terrifying at the same time.  Yes, I know they say they cannot access the data, but, WOW, that's a LOT of data to put in anyone's hands.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I'm not sure that's right.  The point is that _very few_ people later get retested after recovery.  So, to get 91 is probably a disturbingly large number of the retests...



Yep.  

Because even in countries where they’re testing the hell out of the population, the number of tests available is a limited resource.  So the conventional wisdom is that you assume that those recovering don’t need to be retested.

But if post-infection patients can relapse- especially if they can become contagious again- then Covid-19 is MUCH nastier than we realized, and we need to ramp up the amount of testing.  Everywhere.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

Azzy said:


> There are two schools of thought on this:
> 
> "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men."
> —John Emerich Edward Dalberg Acton, first Baron Acton (1834–1902)
> 
> "All governments suffer a recurring problem: Power attracts pathological personalities. It is not that power corrupts but that it is magnetic to the corruptible."
> —Frank Herbert (1920–1986), Chapterhouse: Dune
> 
> Personally, I find that there is truth in both statements—power is, indeed, an intoxicant that easily corrupts those that hold it, but it also a siren's song to those whose hearts are already corrupt.



im of a 3rd school of thought on this.  But im 100% certain if i said my opinion on it i would get banned.  Actually, im pretty sure i MYSELF would ban me if i was the mod on that one if i was seen saying it outloud lol.


----------



## tomBitonti

Umbran said:


> I'm not sure that's right.  The point is that _very few_ people later get retested after recovery.  So, to get 91 is probably a disturbingly large number of the retests...




Which is perplexing.  I‘d want to select several populations of statistically significant sizes and give them all tests on a regular basis.  That seems to be the only way to measure true Infection rates and true symptom distributions.  I’d also want the entire population to wear location and proximity sensors during the testing period.  All of this should be within the means of several countries, and doable with current technology.

Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Son of the Serpent

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Because they’re not YOUR politicians!
> 
> It’s an old political science truism that incumbents have an advantage because the people who voted for them kinda blind themselves to the flaws everyone else sees.



Ummm...i dont think ive ever read about a politician that i liked.

In the last 11 or so centuries.

Unless we count ones that are politicians indirectly?  Then there is a handful.  (I like paracelsus.  He is in that handful)

Look.  Basically you cant apply some typical rules like that one to me.  Im one of those few people they completely dont apply to.  And no.  This is nkt narcissistic arrogance.  Im a human for whom being called neurodivergent would be a hilarious understatement.

I never associate myself to parties because they are filled with people who have a lower iq than i even when you add pairs of them together.  I dont really suffer a bias of one politician being mine and the other not being mine quite the way most people do because i hate them all with equal malice.  Even playing field.  Even when one does something i want (lol, rare, and usually accidental) i hate them exactly as much.  I know better than not to.  There are just far too many dimensions to my opinions for me to be pinned anywhere on the left to right spectrum.

I am repulsed so badly by group think that i cant bring myself to take advantage of it even though its easy.


----------



## Hussar

Well, @tomBitonti, it's not really a tech issue but a social one.  How many rights are you willing to give up?  Because, that's what it comes down to.  You're saying that we should lowjack the entire population, allowing the government to track your movement 24/7.  While the idea and the motive behind it might be pure, the invasion of privacy to that degree will never pass the bar.


----------



## Zardnaar

We're allowed to go for walks, just maintain distance.

  Going a bit crazy. Nice day.






Random park I've never seen before.





  Lots of people out walking often with dogs.
Street parties are becoming a thing. Deck chairs get taken out sit in street. This lady was singing a'la Italy. Not big on apartments here.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Well, @tomBitonti, it's not really a tech issue but a social one.  How many rights are you willing to give up?  Because, that's what it comes down to.  You're saying that we should lowjack the entire population, allowing the government to track your movement 24/7.  While the idea and the motive behind it might be pure, the invasion of privacy to that degree will never pass the bar.




 Well they tightened restrictions here and are looking at getting that Singapore app they use or building something similar. 

 Day 17 on my South Pacific Police State (SPPS).

Give me liberty or death!!! Well you're getting the second part.


----------



## tomBitonti

Hussar said:


> Well, @tomBitonti, it's not really a tech issue but a social one.  How many rights are you willing to give up?  Because, that's what it comes down to.  You're saying that we should lowjack the entire population, allowing the government to track your movement 24/7.  While the idea and the motive behind it might be pure, the invasion of privacy to that degree will never pass the bar.



Myself, for the last month I’ve been shuttling between homes (both empty except for myself), and made occasional excursions for groceries, cleaning supplies, or take out.  Likely more of the same for the next month at least.
But I can see some folks being unwilling to be tracked.
There are communities which could be tracked.  Could soldiers, say, such as ones on a large ship, or confined to base, be ordered into such a program?
The testing part seems minimally invasive and seems orderable.  The problem there seems to be limiting what is done wit’s samples — for example, they could be split and diverted to build a genetic profile database.  I can see a program which was setup for only virus tracking being hijacked.
Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I don’t think you could pass a tracking program in the USA and have it survive a Constitutional challenge without an actual amendment.


----------



## FrogReaver

Hussar said:


> Well, @tomBitonti, it's not really a tech issue but a social one.  How many rights are you willing to give up?  Because, that's what it comes down to.  You're saying that we should lowjack the entire population, allowing the government to track your movement 24/7.  While the idea and the motive behind it might be pure, the invasion of privacy to that degree will never pass the bar.




I don't get the privacy concerns provided:
1.  I can opt into and out of it at any time
2.  I can turn off/delete the app at any time


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> I'm not sure that's right.  The point is that _very few_ people later get retested after recovery.  So, to get 91 is probably a disturbingly large number of the retests...




A disturbingly large number of the retests out of a disturbingly low proportion of all recovered cases...  It's just as likely to be a unique non-reproducible result as something that can be generalized.


----------



## Eltab

tomBitonti said:


> Which is perplexing.  I‘d want to select several populations of statistically significant sizes and give them all tests on a regular basis.  That seems to be the only way to measure true Infection rates and true symptom distributions.  I’d also want the entire population to wear location and proximity sensors during the testing period.  All of this should be within the means of several countries, and doable with current technology.
> 
> Be safe, be well,
> Tom Bitonti



Do you mean the entire population _of those in the study_ or the entire population _of the nation_ to be wearing trackers?
I can get behind the former but not the latter.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I don’t think you could pass a tracking program in the USA and have it survive a Constitutional challenge without an actual amendment.




Constitutional Monarchy here. God save the Queen.

When I was younger I was a Republican (not GoP, as in we become republic).

Lean more towards if it's not broken don't fix it.


----------



## Imaculata

Janx said:


> 20 people in a room singing and flinging vocal spray at each other is not the same as a lonely ride in a truck to Home Despot, a quiet walk down the aisles to get a rug and boxed grill to a checkout counter with a plexiglass barrier and a zap gun to read the bar-code.




You are wrong. These people were in a crowded store waiting in line, to a check out counter with no plexiglass where a girl behind a counter touches their products with her bare hands.

But even if any of the security measures you mention were in place, it would still be a terrible idea. People should be staying at home as much as possible, and not be going out and gathering in busy stores to get something completely unimportant. They should not be carrying on with their lives as if there is not a deadly epidemic going around. All those plans for barbeques and home improvement, they can wait. They do not need to do them during a time of crisis. These people are as stupid as those that go to a church or a convention right now. I live in the epicenter of the outbreak, and these people are helping the virus spread further.

People should be staying at home as much as possible, and only be going out to get groceries and other essential supplies. Any visit to a store is a risk. So people should be limiting that as much as possible.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Even though our local groceries have been pretty good at maintaining law, order & social distancing, I’ll tell you I _know _I’m NOT shopping the same way I would normally.

Under normal circumstances, it wouldn’t be unusual for me to hit 2-4 groceries in a 3 county area over 48 hours to get the _particular _ingredients I want.  And if I started cooking something, and ran out of something, I’d think nothing of turning the he down and running to one of my closer stores. Ditto a craving.

Today?  1-2 stops, _max.  _If I have a gap in my recipe, I make do without.  Cravings have to wait until the next shopping day.

Part of that is just simply minimizing my personal exposure.  However, since Dr. Dad is now insisting I wear a mask when I hit the grocery, I also have to carefully ration our supply of masks.  And- if you haven’t experienced it- physical exertion wearing one of those masks is more draining.  You‘re warmer, your glasses may fog, you probably inhale just a little bit more CO2 than normal.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Even though our local groceries have been pretty good at maintaining law, order & social distancing, I’ll tell you I _know _I’m NOT shopping the same way I would normally.
> 
> Under normal circumstances, it wouldn’t be unusual for me to hit 2-4 groceries in a 3 county area over 48 hours to get the _particular _ingredients I want.  And if I started cooking something, and ran out of something, I’d think nothing of turning the he down and running to one of my closer stores. Ditto a craving.
> 
> Today?  1-2 stops, _max.  _If I have a gap in my recipe, I make do without.  Cravings have to wait until the next shopping day.




I stopped caring about brands and specific ingredients ages ago.

Been sticking up since early March just buy stuff no one else wants.

40c can of spaghetti instead of preferred brand buy it. Canned chick peas. Buy it.

Living on rice, pasta, cereal for a month. So be it.

Produce here and Florida is being dumped. Not worried about starving but wouldn't be surprised if certain things get scarce.

Moscow seems to be turning into NYC.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> I stopped caring about brands and specific ingredients ages ago.




I haven’t really been a brand stickler since this started, but sometimes...

I managed to score some dry red beans for the first time this year.  Mom said, “Great!  Are they Camillias?”  I gave her a rather dry expression in response.

OTOH, when Campari tomatoes reappeared at the grocery for the first time in weeks, I bought an extra container.  

But stuff like Mom’s favorite pickled turnips?  No, not driving across town to buy those, sorry.  Maybe in August.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I haven’t really been a brand stickler since this started, but sometimes...
> 
> I managed to score some dry red beans for the first time this year.  Mom said, “Great!  Are they Camillias?”  I gave her a rather dry expression in response.
> 
> OTOH, when Campari tomatoes reappeared at the grocery for the first time in weeks, I bought an extra container.
> 
> But stuff like Mom’s favorite pickled turnips?  No, not driving across town to buy those, sorry.  Maybe in August.




I've bought some generics. Not so much due to price but more to find out what I'm willing to eat.

Not sure what's going to be available in a few months. Already seeing some things disappear. Even if it can be produced, can it be transported and can people afford to buy it to make transporting it viable. 

 And the do you really want to go to the supermarket factor.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Looking for the helpers:

If you don’t follow the link, that’s members of an Amish community helping make masks for a clinic.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Looking for the helpers:
> 
> If you don’t follow the link, that’s members of an Amish community helping make masks for a clinic.




 Sewing is a skill lost in modern generations. My mother taught me the basics and we got taught at Intermediate.

 That was in 1990 though. 

 All the kids did metalwork, woodwork, art, sewing and cooking. 

 Maybe I had a weird childhood. First year of high school had agriculture as a subject and the school had a small farm attached.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Sewing is a skill lost in modern generations. My mother taught me the basics and we got taught at Intermediate.
> 
> That was in 1990 though.
> 
> All the kids did metalwork, woodwork, art, sewing and cooking.
> 
> Maybe I had a weird childhood. First year of high school had agriculture as a subject and the school had a small farm attached.



I was taught cooking, laundry and the fundamentals of sewing at home, plus some minor woodworking & shop at school.  Plus even more sewing.

I should have studied sewing more, because Mom was damn good at it (she doesn’t do it so much these days)- she learned it from her grandmother, a much sought after modiste in New Orleans.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I was taught cooking, laundry and the fundamentals of sewing at home, plus some minor woodworking & shop at school.  Plus even more sewing.
> 
> I should have studied sewing more, because Mom was damn good at it (she doesn’t do it so much these days)- she learned it from her grandmother, a much sought after modiste in New Orleans.




I wore homemade clothes in the 80s. Mum died couple of years back but mother in law has sewing room, wife's old bedroom.


----------



## tomBitonti

Eltab said:


> Do you mean the entire population _of those in the study_ or the entire population _of the nation_ to be wearing trackers?
> I can get behind the former but not the latter.



Of those in the study.  But I could get behind a national testing program.  if there is an eventual vaccine, that should be for everyone; so should be testing.
Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Umbran

tomBitonti said:


> Which is perplexing.  I‘d want to select several populations of statistically significant sizes and give them all tests on a regular basis.




Yeah.  If wishes were fishes.  Unfortunately, we don't have the capacity for that at the moment.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I was taught cooking, laundry and the fundamentals of sewing at home, plus some minor woodworking & shop at school.  Plus even more sewing.




I got fundamentals of cooking in the Boy Scouts - rounded that out in college when I wound up in an on-campus apartment with a kitchen.  My mother, however, was not going to have a child not able to sew a straight line on a machine.  So, I got taught, and when I moved away from home, my Mom got me a basic sewing machine.

Side note:  Singer sewing machines last just about forever, as I broke out this same machine to sew masks for my wife and myself.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

Umbran said:


> I got fundamentals of cooking in the Boy Scouts - rounded that out in college when I wound up in an on-campus apartment with a kitchen.  My mother, however, was not going to have a child not able to sew a straight line on a machine.  So, I got taught, and when I moved away from home, my Mom got me a basic sewing machine.
> 
> Side note:  Singer sewing machines last just about forever, as I broke out this same machine to sew masks for my wife and myself.



They are practically immortal.  Totally true.


----------



## tomBitonti

Umbran said:


> Yeah.  If wishes were fishes.  Unfortunately, we don't have the capacity for that at the moment.



I am aware.
Taking a break for a bit.  I have very strong opinions regarding testing in the US.
Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Hussar said:


> Amazing and amazingly terrifying at the same time.  Yes, I know they say they cannot access the data, but, WOW, that's a LOT of data to put in anyone's hands.




I'm not someone who's worried about "big brother watching you"... but I would NOT be willing to be involved in THAT. That sounds waaaay too creepy and invasive. (And potentially corruptible, AND it wouldn't work for what it says it's for!)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Side note:  Singer sewing machines last just about forever, as I broke out this same machine to sew masks for my wife and myself.




Mom owns a Singer and a Pfaff, the younger of which is from the mid 70s.  Perfect working order.

My paternal grandmother’s treadle operated Singer lasted from wheneverthehell to Katrina.


----------



## Eltab

tomBitonti said:


> I could get behind a national testing program.  If there is an eventual vaccine, that should be for everyone; so should be testing.



Agreed.
I've seen footage of all the school kids lining up for the Polio vaccine, and imagine something similar would be the best way to cover a lot of people quickly.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Mom owns a Singer and a Pfaff, the younger of which is from the mid 70s.  Perfect working order.
> 
> My paternal grandmother’s treadle operated Singer lasted from wheneverthehell to Katrina.




My mom's got all of those, too - though the treadle Singer had the sewing machine taken out and replaced with a spinning wheel for awhile. I think it's mostly just an antique desk at this point. My mom makes clothes and my dad makes wine and beer, and their fruit and vegetable production in their garden is huge. Pretty good self-sufficiency for people who live right in the middle of the city (Vancouver, in this case.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Might bring a smile to someones day.









						Orcas get up close with locals at Porirua's Plimmerton Beach
					

People on the beach were pleasantly surprised when they got the chance to see some orcas up close.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Orcas swimming right up the the shoreline.


----------



## Zardnaar

SPPS update day 18

18 new cases
5 in ICU
1 critical

Total deaths 4. More people recovering than getting sick.


----------



## Umbran

tomBitonti said:


> I have very strong opinions regarding testing in the US.




It is totally fair to take a break.

When you come back, not that anything you say about testing in the US probably needs to actually be about testing... everywhere outside Asia.  The only folks really ready for testing were the ones who were really close to the original SARS, and then MERS.  Nobody else bothered to be prepared.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Well...no details yet, but it seems our state government is going to make Texas a lab for relaxing the pandemic orders. 









						Texas governor vows to issue an executive order to end state's lockdown and help residents 'get back into the workforce'
					

"One thing about Texans, they enjoy working and they want to get back into the workforce," said Texas Governor Greg Abbott.




					www.yahoo.com
				




To be clear, I would rather be wrong than proven right, but I don’t this will go well.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well...no details yet, but it seems our state government is going to make Texas a lab for relaxing the pandemic orders.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Texas governor vows to issue an executive order to end state's lockdown and help residents 'get back into the workforce'
> 
> 
> "One thing about Texans, they enjoy working and they want to get back into the workforce," said Texas Governor Greg Abbott.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> To be clear, I would rather be wrong than proven right, but I don’t this will go well.



Silver lining (please dont hate me)

Although you could probably pick MORE isolated areas, there is a vast amount of completely empty land throughout texas so there is more geographic isolation than if some other states tried this.  So if it goes well, YAY, if it goes poorly, well the explosion would probably be worse if other states had tried it.  I guess what im saying is, if it goes horribly wrong it probably wont go AS horribky wrong as it couls go if a different part of the usa tried this.  Hopefully it goes well?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Son of the Serpent said:


> Silver lining (please dont hate me)
> 
> Although you could probably pick MORE isolated areas, there is a vast amount of completely empty land throughout texas so there is more geographic isolation than if some other states tried this.  So if it goes well, YAY, if it goes poorly, well the explosion would probably be worse if other states had tried it.  I guess what im saying is, if it goes horribly wrong it probably wont go AS horribky wrong as it couls go if a different part of the usa tried this.  Hopefully it goes well?



Texas has 3 of the USA’s 10 biggest cities*- Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio- which between them have at least 3 international airports and one of the biggest commercial ports in the USA.

The three are well connected to each other via rail and highway as well.  And our state capitol is located between them.

We also have a lot of major military bases (mostly AF** & Army) here.

If it goes horribly wrong here, there really aren’t many worse places in the USA it could happen.





* and Austin & Ft. Worth are both in the top 15

**and a lot of _those_ are SAC bases.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Son of the Serpent said:


> Silver lining (please dont hate me)
> 
> Although you could probably pick MORE isolated areas, there is a vast amount of completely empty land throughout texas so there is more geographic isolation than if some other states tried this.  So if it goes well, YAY, if it goes poorly, well the explosion would probably be worse if other states had tried it.  I guess what im saying is, if it goes horribly wrong it probably wont go AS horribky wrong as it couls go if a different part of the usa tried this.  Hopefully it goes well?



There's plenty of open land, but that's not where the people are. Just the stretch from south of Houston to the northern reaches of DFW is more or less one long swath of urban development for most of those 300ish miles.

edit: The "Texas Triangle" megapolitan region (delimited by Houston, SanAntonio, and Dallas/FortWorth) has a pop of nearly 18M.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well for those of you who think it will be right.









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,423,321 Cases and 2,703,987 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				




Sweden deaths per million. 88
USA 66
UK 145

Sweden has one of the best healthcare/welfare systems in the world.

They thought their health system would work.

It didn't. It was the last European country to lockdown.


----------



## GreyLord

Stress can run high I suppose and people get a little irritable.  We all need to relax sometimes.  Trying to stay safe and healthy.

I have continued my gaming online.  We just finished the first level of the Dungeon of the Mad Mage (finally).  That took longer than expected.  Many levels to go.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well...no details yet, but it seems our state government is going to make Texas a lab for relaxing the pandemic orders.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Texas governor vows to issue an executive order to end state's lockdown and help residents 'get back into the workforce'
> 
> 
> "One thing about Texans, they enjoy working and they want to get back into the workforce," said Texas Governor Greg Abbott.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> To be clear, I would rather be wrong than proven right, but I don’t this will go well.



I wonder if/when stricter states will start shutting borders with prematurely-open states....


----------



## ad_hoc

Texas is the main area I'm worried about.

7-10 days after Easter Sunday we might see an explosion there. Same again after May 1st.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Theo R Cwithin said:


> There's plenty of open land, but that's not where the people are. Just the stretch from south of Houston to the northern reaches of DFW is more or less one long swath of urban development for most of those 300ish miles.
> 
> edit: The "Texas Triangle" megapolitan region (delimited by Houston, SanAntonio, and Dallas/FortWorth) has a pop of nearly 18M.



Sometimes it seems as if I-35 from Dallas to San Antonio is almost completely paved.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

You:
Texas has 3 of the USA’s 10 biggest cities- Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio- which between them have at least 3 international airports and one of the biggest commercial ports in the USA.

Me:
Im aware.  I assumed that we were talking about a loosening of quarantine that was strictly "in-state".  Consider my statements as having only been intended for that assumed premise.

You:
The three are well connected to each other via rail and highway as well.  And our state capitol is located between them.

Me:
Not relevant.  Im talking about the reletive isolation from texas to other states.  Geographic isolation by area, features, and emptyness.  Also i did make a caveat originally to it not being the state that exemplifies it most of all possible 50 states but that it does more so than most states.

You:
We also have a lot of major military bases (mostly AF* & Army) here.

Me:
I see that mostly as something that could be a major upside or downside entirely depending on how nuanced their handling of this potential factor is.

You:
If it goes horribly wrong here, there really aren’t many worse places in the USA it could happen.

Me:
I strongly disagree.  Because i do not desire to make you angry im going to not argue the point further.  Im gonna bow out.  I hope i havent bothered you.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sometimes it seems as if I-35 from Dallas to San Antonio is almost completely paved.



Hehe, yep. If nothing else, I can at least confirm that there is a lot more I-35 corridor traffic nowadays than when I was a kid in Austin.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

Theo R Cwithin said:


> There's plenty of open land, but that's not where the people are. Just the stretch from south of Houston to the northern reaches of DFW is more or less one long swath of urban development for most of those 300ish miles.
> 
> edit: The "Texas Triangle" megapolitan region (delimited by Houston, SanAntonio, and Dallas/FortWorth) has a pop of nearly 18M.



My point is that there is a lot of empty space that makes it hard for the virus to travel out from texan populations in multiple directions toward other parts (though not all parts) of the usa.  Not perfect.  But better than some places.

Like i said though.  Im bowing out.  You commented right around the time that i made my other comment so i felt it rude not to respond.  But im still bowing out.  I just think thats a good idea.

Oh.  Just to clarify something i have already touched on.  My comments are made with what i percieved to be the premise, which was that texas was planning to loosen quarantine but only IN STATE.

Ok.  By.  Have a wonderful day.


----------



## Umbran

Son of the Serpent said:


> My point is that there is a lot of empty space that makes it hard for the virus to travel out from texan populations in multiple directions toward other parts (though not all parts) of the usa.  Not perfect.  But better than some places.




So, the bowing out thing isn't really necessary.  I don't think anyone's mad at you or anything.  I just think they want to make clear a couple things that don't make opening Texas really very safe:

1) With three cities totaling 18 million people interact a lot.... whether they can travel out of state doesn't really mean that it stays "isolated" - having a huge pool of people to get sick locally is still a huge problem - just ask New York.

2) Those airports mean that they start travelling domestically if they return to "business as usual".


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I know SoS has bowed out, but:

1) Texas is already limiting _inbound _travel from Louisiana and other states...of private citizens.  Commercial travel is not interdicted.  As a major commercial hub, if things go wrong here, those involved will become a serious vector.

2) the same issue applies to the military personnel.  In addition, a large outbreak here could substantially impact the country’s overall military readiness.


----------



## Zardnaar

Business as usual realistically is probably October.

Assuming Covid burns out.

I can't see our lockdown ending in two weeks. They went into lockdown after they found 2 cases of community spread.

They might lower the alert level to 3 or allow semi essential businesses to open.

Businesses as normal will be 2 weeks after cases per day are 0 and no unidentified cases are hitting ICU. They might to to alert level 2 at that point.

Realistically we're coming up to the end of week 3, 3-5 weeks left to go but I would suspect 3 months so sometime in June.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Talking about Texas, if Houston does not get hit hard, the way New Orleans is going and NYC already has, I would be shocked. A good chunk of the population there has the same poor health situations, which is one reason why this virus is being more fatal for minorities getting it.

Along those lines, I think the reverse of that is why Iceland's numbers are showing as much as 50% of those infected being asymptomatic versus the smaller 25% a lot of doctors are claiming in general, that being a general lack of minority population there, plus lack of poor health conditions.


----------



## Zardnaar

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Talking about Texas, if Houston does not get hit hard, the way New Orleans is going and NYC already has, I would be shocked. A good chunk of the population there has the same poor health situations, which is one reason why this virus is being more fatal for minorities getting it.
> 
> Along those lines, I think the reverse of that is why Iceland's numbers are showing as much as 50% of those infected being asymptomatic versus the smaller 25% a lot of doctors are claiming in general, that being a general lack of minority population there, plus lack of poor health conditions.




Friends in Houston. They experienced that last hurricane. They're sane but even they have 3 guns and dogs due to looters. They went into self isolation a few days before I did. We're singing in the streets, they fortified the house.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

@Zardnaar  If this virus does end up being worse in the colder months and milder in the warmer months, isn't New Zealand going to be getting worse, rather than better, seeing as how you are a couple months away from Winter starting? Or does NZ not get the kind of winters the US and EU get?


----------



## Zardnaar

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> @Zardnaar  If this virus does end up being worse in the colder months and milder in the warmer months, isn't New Zealand going to be getting worse, rather than better, seeing as how you are a couple months away from Winter starting? Or does NZ not get the kind of winters the US and EU get?




Milder generally. I'm in the deep South and it's warmer than say the UK. 1-3 days if snow per year. I'm on the coast though, interior and Alpine areas can get cold.

I regard that theory as full of crap. Moscow is cold atm getting wrecked, Spain, Italy, Iran are warm.

On mitigating factor might be the ozone layer over Australia/NZ. We get more UV light.

Heat seems to have no real effect. Anyone pushing that lines an idiot.

I'm looking at deaths per million, testing criteria varies and obviously it's going to miss people.

Big transport hubs and tourism areas seem hardest hit.

If I had to guess New Orleans and Florida are batter up next. I told my friend 22 days ago USA was gonna be 9/11 levels every day for a month. It's not that far off.

My personal best guess was Vietnam War level of casualties in a month or so vs 10 years. Almost halfway there.

 If it gets into Florida's aged community expect Italy and UK levels of badness. 

 I'm leaning towards when not if.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Zardnaar said:


> Heat seems to have no real effect. Anyone pushing that lines an idiot.




Yeah, the only way I have heard high heat maybe having an effect on the virus is if it is combination with high humidity. So a state like Florida could be better off than a state like Arizona. Wet heat versus dry heat.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Yeah, the only way I have heard high heat maybe having an effect on the virus is if it is combination with high humidity. So a state like Florida could be better off than a state like Arizona. Wet heat versus dry heat.



It could also be one of those things you see in lab conditions, but not in the uncontrolled real world.  The reasons the virus falters in a hot & humid lab experiment might be mitigated or negated by other environmental factors.  

Which is why the MDs keep saying “wait and see.”


----------



## Zardnaar

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Yeah, the only way I have heard high heat maybe having an effect on the virus is if it is combination with high humidity. So a state like Florida could be better off than a state like Arizona. Wet heat versus dry heat.




 I wouldn't put money on it.

 Summer will slow the rate for the simple reason it's already killed the most vulnerable and enough of the population will be in hiding regardless of what the governors say. 

 Italys been in lockdown about a month it's starting to slow now. US has around two weeks left minimum in the hardest hit areas and it will ramp up in those states generally in the old Confederacy. 

 Chicago doesn't seem to be having much fun either.


----------



## Zardnaar

Friend shared this with me.









						COVID-19 Data Explorer
					

Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems




					ourworldindata.org
				




 USA is behind the curve atm.


----------



## NotAYakk

It took about 3 weeks to go from 10k deaths to 100k deaths.

At this point, increasing numbers of deaths are going unreported.  But at that growth rate, by the end of April, 1 million deaths.

Now, the current known hotspots are all self isolating.  And it took a month to go from 100k cases to 1M cases.

I suspect the control measures where it is hot right now will bend the curve down.  Then the places where it isn't hot will heat up.

As an exponential curve, the contribution from areas where it is going 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 is currently small.  The areas where it goes from 1000 to 1200 to 1440 contribute more numbers, even as they grow slower in percentages.  So the global curve will flatten; but that is sort of an illusion, because more and more areas will start heating up.

With the usual 20 day delay, those increasingly hot areas will either need to lockdown just as the rest of the world thinks it is beat, or they will explode.

Sweden is an example of this.  They haven't really engaged in serious social distancing, with the theory that their health care system can handle young people getting sick, and asked older people to self isolate.

Their deaths/day are growing at a rate of 20%-25% ... per day.  Except it takes weekends off in Sweden (which it isn't; it just means that their *tracking system* is taking weekends off.  Which means they are probably missing a lot of cases if they are that slack.)

Go here: Sweden Coronavirus: 10,483 Cases and 899 Deaths - Worldometer and scroll down to daily deaths.  Notice that every 7 days there is a massive dip in deaths for 2 days.  Which then ramps up for the week.

If they have a 3.4% mortality rate and infect half the country, they cap out at around 170,000 deaths.  Assuming they are missing half of the deaths due to their slackness, this is 100x more deaths than they have right now.  At +20% deaths/day this takes 25 days.



Spoiler



In a sense, the disease spreads like how rocket ships approach the speed of light.  As you saturate the population, the "cost" to spread climbs.  For a ridiculously simple model, you can set real_infected = population ( 1-1/virtual_infected ).  For virtual_infected far less than the popluation, this is real_infected =~ virtual_infected; but it requires an infinitely large virtual_infected to reach population saturation.

Getting to 50% saturation in this model requires 4 more days than in the more naive model above.  But real people recover and become immune, which bends the curve down moreso with this model than it does with one without herd immunity.



Now as you approach saturation, growth slows, because the virus finds more immune people (or already infected people) when it tries to spread.

Also, your growth rate in deaths is locked in for 20 days after you change policy and behavior.

So we get an interesting experiment out of Sweden over the next month.  If Covid-19 is far less deadly than everyone else thinks it is, or their elder isolation is successful, we learn something.  If not, Sweden becomes awash in corpses.

Note that Sweden's government is being lobbied by doctors to change course, and they have refused to do so, and have refused to release any models saying why they are going this way.  They just state that they are aiming for herd immunity.

They could be right in a few ways.  (1) Covid-19 might be less lethal than we think, (2) they might be protecting their vulnerable better than we think, (3) Covid-19 might be harder to contain than we think, and our social distancing is mostly useless.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> 2) Those airports mean that they start travelling domestically if they return to "business as usual".



IF the airport on the other end decides the trip is "essential travel".  They may turn the plane back in mid-air or refuse the passengers permission to leave the plane while it is refueled to go home.

Marsailles Int'l Airport (France) refused a couple of British rich playboys permission to get out of their plane and go self-quarantine in a villa near Cannes, because attending a party is non-essential travel.  Even after the group leader offered to just pay the fines and proceed on his merry way, and after he insinuated he could offer bribes.  This story has to be getting around in airport-employee circles.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> IF the airport on the other end decides the trip is "essential travel".




I am pretty sure nobody is screening your reason for domestic travel on the _landing_ side.   Find a cite for me if I am incorrect on that.   If nothing else, doing that'd be terribly inefficient.  You should screen for reason for travel before boarding.  



> They may turn the plane back in mid-air or refuse the passengers permission to leave the plane while it is refueled to go home.




Upon what basis do you figure they're going to do this?  What information are they going to have that they wouldn't have when letting you on the plane in the first place?


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> I am pretty sure nobody is screening your reason for domestic travel on the _landing_ side.   Find a cite for me if I am incorrect on that.   If nothing else, doing that'd be terribly inefficient.  You should screen for reason for travel before boarding.
> 
> 
> 
> Upon what basis do you figure they're going to do this?  What information are they going to have that they wouldn't have when letting you on the plane in the first place?



In the case of the USA, the departing state may be fine with travel, the arriving state may not be.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> In the case of the USA, the departing state may be fine with travel, the arriving state may not be.




An airline is going to put a jet in the air without knowing that ahead of time?


----------



## Morrus

Son of the Serpent said:


> My point is that there is a lot of empty space that makes it hard for the virus to travel out from texan populations in multiple directions toward other parts (though not all parts) of the usa.




The Atlantic and Pacific oceans are big empty spaces. Didn’t help. It’s not like the virus flies hundreds of miles by itself; people travel across empty spaces. 

Unless your implication is that people don’t travel to or from Texas.


----------



## Morrus

Zardnaar said:


> I wouldn't put money on it.
> 
> Summer will slow the rate for the simple reason it's already killed the most vulnerable and enough of the population will be in hiding regardless of what the governors say.



It’s a global pandemic. It was summer in the Southern Hemisphere when all this started.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I am pretty sure nobody is screening your reason for domestic travel on the _landing_ side.   Find a cite for me if I am incorrect on that.   If nothing else, doing that'd be terribly inefficient.  You should screen for reason for travel before boarding.
> 
> 
> 
> Upon what basis do you figure they're going to do this?  What information are they going to have that they wouldn't have when letting you on the plane in the first place?



The only example I’ve seen were some rich Brits who chartered a private plane to France- and some helicopters for use IN France- who were turned away after landing but without being allowed to deplane.


----------



## Morrus

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The only example I’ve seen were some rich Brits who chartered a private plane to France- and some helicopters for use IN France- who were turned away after landing but without being allowed to deplane.



They were flying from the UK, but they weren’t British.









						French police turn back private jet of holidaymakers from UK, reports say
					

‘Three luxury helicopters were waiting for them on the tarmac’




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This was sadly predictable:








						Dumped Milk, Smashed Eggs, Plowed Vegetables: Food Waste of the Pandemic
					

In Wisconsin and Ohio, farmers are dumping thousands of gallons of fresh milk into lagoons and manure pits. An Idaho farmer has dug huge ditches to bury 1 million pounds of onions. And in South Florida, a region that supplies much of the Eastern half of the United States with produce, tractors...




					www.yahoo.com
				




TL;DR: pandemic lockdown has cut the food market (approximately) in half, even as people eat at home more.  Recycling the perfectly good food in situ is more efficient & logical than trying to harvest & ship the food to groceries and food shelters that are already at capacity.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Also predictable:








						Coronavirus: Second home-owners 'evading police checkpoint detection by sending luggage ahead'
					

Couriers have reportedly been tasked with transporting luggage for second home-owners.




					www.yahoo.com
				












						The Costly Toll of Not Shutting Down Spring Break Earlier
					

MIAMI -- You could find Beatriz Diaz at this spring's Winter Party Festival in Miami Beach, giving out hand sanitizer.It was early March. She knew the coronavirus was beginning to make its way around the world, but she figured if she kept her hands clean and avoided sweaty people, she would be safe




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Morrus said:


> It’s a global pandemic. It was summer in the Southern Hemisphere when all this started.




 I had friends in Texas ask me that 3 weeks ago. 

 Warmth didn't seem to effect it in Iran and Italy. 

 Australasias weaker ozone layer might help but would put money on it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This was sadly predictable:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dumped Milk, Smashed Eggs, Plowed Vegetables: Food Waste of the Pandemic
> 
> 
> In Wisconsin and Ohio, farmers are dumping thousands of gallons of fresh milk into lagoons and manure pits. An Idaho farmer has dug huge ditches to bury 1 million pounds of onions. And in South Florida, a region that supplies much of the Eastern half of the United States with produce, tractors...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TL;DR: pandemic lockdown has cut the food market (approximately) in half, even as people eat at home more.  Recycling the perfectly good food in situ is more efficient & logical than trying to harvest & ship the food to groceries and food shelters that are already at capacity.




 Something similar happening here in a smaller scale.

 Everything got shut down so fast the government effectively gave two companies a complete duopoly on food. 

 All the smaller shops, restaurants etc that bought produce stopped.
  It's not really harvest time here though except some apples and a little bit in the north. We'll need to plant soon though.

 Some things have already disappeared off the shelves like flour. Plenty of it but they used all the packaging in 4 days.

No yeast either. 

 We did most of the stock up before serious panic buying started. Watched a prepper video of all things and bought some recommendations.

Not going to go hungary here but variety might take a hit.

 Job wise though might be picking food or on a boat after lockdown. Might have to do the same stuff our Great grand parents and grand parents did. 

 Hunting whales isn't an option these days though.

 Country was set up as England's farm. Done crap jobs before, might have to do it again.


----------



## GreyLord

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Yeah, the only way I have heard high heat maybe having an effect on the virus is if it is combination with high humidity. So a state like Florida could be better off than a state like Arizona. Wet heat versus dry heat.




I've heard a lot of media talking about high heat and humidity, but I heard an alternate idea about how humidity actually may be helping it spread.

Looking at various areas it would appear humidity may be spreading it faster than dry areas.  Heat does appear to kill the virus faster (though if that's going to do a lot of good is anyone's guess....one day vs. that of 3-7 days still means the virus is there for a day), but hot and dry may be more hostile to this virus than wet and hot.  This may also be why some humid areas (New York, the South) are suffering more than dryer areas of the Western US.

They are puzzled thus far why it's not hit California cities as hard if not harder than New York, especially as it appeared to get it's start in California in the US.  California can get humid on the coast, but it's nothing compared to how humid the US's east coast gets.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> I've heard a lot of media talking about high heat and humidity, but I heard an alternate idea about how humidity actually may be helping it spread.
> 
> Looking at various areas it would appear humidity may be spreading it faster than dry areas.  Heat does appear to kill the virus faster (though if that's going to do a lot of good is anyone's guess....one day vs. that of 3-7 days still means the virus is there for a day), but hot and dry may be more hostile to this virus than wet and hot.  This may also be why some humid areas (New York, the South) are suffering more than dryer areas of the Western US.
> 
> They are puzzled thus far why it's not hit California cities as hard if not harder than New York, especially as it appeared to get it's start in California in the US.  California can get humid on the coast, but it's nothing compared to how humid the US's east coast gets.




 NYC bigger hub and west coast went into lockdown sooner. 

 On another site most infections seem to be coming out of Europe via China. Other countries banned travel with China early as well.

 They would transit through NY. 

 I've been to the supermarket once in almost 4 weeks. We're getting it drummed into us. Act if you've already have Covid, stay at home and don't go to supermarket unless you really have to.

Total numbers seen to be a factor as well. Per capita Australia and NZ have a lot of tourists but lower numbers total and where they come from seems to be a big factor. 

 I'll see if I can find the link. USA has highest numbers but Europe per capita is beating them. 

 Spain, Italy, France, UK combined have smaller population but way more cases combined. 

 Last I noticed Wyoming has 0 cases. 

 Detroit's not looking good, numbers are starting to ramp up in Alabama for it's size.


----------



## ad_hoc

GreyLord said:


> I've heard a lot of media talking about high heat and humidity, but I heard an alternate idea about how humidity actually may be helping it spread.
> 
> Looking at various areas it would appear humidity may be spreading it faster than dry areas.  Heat does appear to kill the virus faster (though if that's going to do a lot of good is anyone's guess....one day vs. that of 3-7 days still means the virus is there for a day), but hot and dry may be more hostile to this virus than wet and hot.  This may also be why some humid areas (New York, the South) are suffering more than dryer areas of the Western US.
> 
> They are puzzled thus far why it's not hit California cities as hard if not harder than New York, especially as it appeared to get it's start in California in the US.  California can get humid on the coast, but it's nothing compared to how humid the US's east coast gets.




From what I can gather California has a good lockdown and most people are taking it seriously.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

ad_hoc said:


> From what I can gather California has a good lockdown and most people are taking it seriously.




I think that's it - the west coast (both USA and Canada) locked down earlier because we had travellers from China when the news was mostly focused on how it was effecting China. The east coast of both countries weren't screening as thoroughly as we all were when everyone went out and returned during spring break (and earlier). It's not that we don't have travellers to/from Europe on the west coast, but we were already aware and worried about it by the time Europe started getting sick.

Seattle's first case was Jan 20. Vancouver's was Jan 24. San Francisco was the first US city to lockdown. I think it's just that the west coast was ahead of the rest of North America when it came to taking it seriously. Presumably, the same was true of NZ - the kiwis may have had their first case later, but they took it very seriously right away.


----------



## cmad1977

GreyLord said:


> I've heard a lot of media talking about high heat and humidity, but I heard an alternate idea about how humidity actually may be helping it spread.
> 
> Looking at various areas it would appear humidity may be spreading it faster than dry areas. Heat does appear to kill the virus faster (though if that's going to do a lot of good is anyone's guess....one day vs. that of 3-7 days still means the virus is there for a day), but hot and dry may be more hostile to this virus than wet and hot. This may also be why some humid areas (New York, the South) are suffering more than dryer areas of the Western US.
> 
> They are puzzled thus far why it's not hit California cities as hard if not harder than New York, especially as it appeared to get it's start in California in the US. California can get humid on the coast, but it's nothing compared to how humid the US's east coast gets.




It’s because we didn’t funk about when this started. Step by step we(in L.A. anyways) progressively ‘locked down’. Outliers aside... no one here is really flouting the guidelines.


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> I think that's it - the west coast (both USA and Canada) locked down earlier because we had travellers from China when the news was mostly focused on how it was effecting China. The east coast of both countries weren't screening as thoroughly as we all were when everyone went out and returned during spring break (and earlier). It's not that we don't have travellers to/from Europe on the west coast, but we were already aware and worried about it by the time Europe started getting sick.
> 
> Seattle's first case was Jan 20. Vancouver's was Jan 24. San Francisco was the first US city to lockdown. I think it's just that the west coast was ahead of the rest of North America when it came to taking it seriously. Presumably, the same was true of NZ - the kiwis may have had their first case later, but they took it very seriously right away.




First case was Feb 28. It crept up to 5 for a week or so.

Early testing focused travellers and people exposed.

Once they found two cases of community spread we were in lockdown 2 days later. Community spread being they couldn't tie it to travellers/foreigners.

We don't have very many ventilators per capita and a lot were already in use.

PM had friends in UK tell her to lick down now and Italy was a thing.

We're increasing testing numbers and getting declining cases. Government forecast 4000 cases we've got 1200 iirc.

Before lockdown they already quarantined old folks homes and people started self isolation already.

I called my wife's Aunt an idiot for going on cruise early March, she got as far as Australia before she got in a boat and everything fell apart. Managed to get a flight back in a day or two things really went to custard.

Last year, currently around 10 degrees Celsius.

August 2019





Do weather doesn't seem to make a difference. Queenstown is our hotspot, Alpine area not overly warm atm.

 Smaller scale but tourist traps and transit hubs same pattern as north.


----------



## Eltab

I suspect that the after-action report will conclude the term "community spread" was techno-babble to avoid saying "the virus can transmit through the air".


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> I suspect that the after-action report will conclude the term "community spread" was techno-babble to avoid saying "the virus can transmit through the air".




Here it just means they can't trace the source.

Someone in the community has it who hasn't been overseas or had contact with travellers.

If it's airborne you would have a higher number of people. Sounds terrible but Covids very mild as Pandemics go. It's not that fatal not that contagious.

 You don't need to yeah for the hills with your favorite selection of AR-15s. Don't be an idiot either. 
It's not that hard to overwhelm the health care system though that's the problem.

Not that they can do much anyway they can save a few of the worst effected via Ventilators.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Eltab said:


> I suspect that the after-action report will conclude the term "community spread" was techno-babble to avoid saying "the virus can transmit through the air".




I don't think so. Community spread just means that it didn't come directly from a previously known case. It only "transmits through the air" by taking in (symptomatic or not) sick people's recently-breathed water vapour. That's a scientifically different thing than "airborne".


----------



## NotAYakk

"Airborn" means it will fly through (for example) ventilation ducts.

"Breathing" means it is in droplets large enough that they *fall to the ground* (or other surface) and stick to things.

From what I understand, you can make the novel coronovirus airborn by malfunctioning toilets (it is contained in feces sometimes, and the toilet can aerosolize it) or when intubating a person (shoving a breathing tube down someone's throat and pressurizing it).  But these are not normal, everyday events.


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> They are puzzled thus far why it's not hit California cities as hard if not harder than New York, especially as it appeared to get it's start in California in the US.  California can get humid on the coast, but it's nothing compared to how humid the US's east coast gets.




This may matter more than weather:

Californian cities are high in population, but also large in _area_.  So, Californian population density is lower, and that helps control spread.  The New York Metropolitan area has ten of the eleven highest population density incorporated areas in the country.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> This may matter more than weather:
> 
> Californian cities are high in population, but also large in _area_.  So, Californian population density is lower, and that helps control spread.  The New York Metropolitan area has ten of the eleven highest population density incorporated areas in the country.




 Forgot to mention that. Italy also has high density in the north.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> I suspect that the after-action report will conclude the term "community spread" was techno-babble to avoid saying "the virus can transmit through the air".




As others have said - no, this is incorrect.  "Community spread" is an epidemiology term, meaning that a case cannot be traced to a known source.  

Being "airborne" also means something specific, that thankfully does not generally happen with covid-19


----------



## Zardnaar

More food dumping.









						Coronavirus: Waikato's 'Lettuce Man' offloads crop to wild deer during Covid-19 lockdown
					

Ian Kerr used to chase wild deer away from his lettuce crop, now he's feeding them to the animals by the ute load.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Can't sell it, can't give it away. Deer seem happy. 

 Wish lettuce was like that when I harvested it in 1993/94.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Zardnaar said:


> More food dumping. Wish lettuce was like that when I harvested it in 1993/94.




Poor lettuce-man. I wish I could get some of his lettuce. Looks great.


----------



## Zardnaar

SPPS update.
1 more death, elderly man 3rd linked to the same rest home. 5 total. All 5 elderly

19 new cases, 15 confirmed, 4 probable.

4 in ICU


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> Poor lettuce-man. I wish I could get some of his lettuce. Looks great.




 We buy that type, probably not off him. It's nice.


----------



## Hussar

Japan's testing numbers are still ridiculously low.  They've now designated a hotel in my area as a potential temporary hospital.  Yay.  First week of real shut down, but, frankly, it's not really shut down at all.  I went to the supermarket on Saturday and the place was packed.  Made me very nervous.  Will make sure to go at a different time.  

On the bright side, we're still not seeing huge numbers of patients.  So, that's good.  I guess.  It really is quite frightening when I cannot actually be sure the government is deliberately suppressing information.

One of the reasons they are not testing extensively is because of a law in place where all positives MUST be hospitalized.  So, they are deliberately slowing testing so they don't overload the hospitals.


----------



## NotAYakk

Hussar said:


> One of the reasons they are not testing extensively is because of a law in place where all positives MUST be hospitalized.  So, they are deliberately slowing testing so they don't overload the hospitals.



Wow, that is a way to ruin your own plans.  Robbing Peter to pay Paul.


----------



## Lwaxy

The virus has killed less people than the flu so far and has, at least in Europe, prevented many flu deaths due to the isolation rules. Maybe we should distance more every flu season. If not for the lockdowns,we would have a lot more deaths and dying though. 

I'm classified as high risk due to all my many pre-existing conditions,and it seems when people talk about everyone who has been dying has a known or unknown pre-existing condition and thus not to worry, I feel like people not only devalue the lives of sick people, but also disregard the fact that many more people have pre-existing problems they do not even know about.


----------



## GreyLord

Lwaxy said:


> The virus has killed less people than the flu so far and has, at least in Europe, prevented many flu deaths due to the isolation rules. Maybe we should distance more every flu season. If not for the lockdowns,we would have a lot more deaths and dying though.
> 
> I'm classified as high risk due to all my many pre-existing conditions,and it seems when people talk about everyone who has been dying has a known or unknown pre-existing condition and thus not to worry, I feel like people not only devalue the lives of sick people, but also disregard the fact that many more people have pre-existing problems they do not even know about.




Something else I have been wondering about.  With all the lockdowns, stay at homes, and other items we are following I imagine car traffic is extremely low on the roads (also why oil has had it's struggles with their companies recently).

I wonder if car accident related deaths are likewise dropped to a much lower number recently.


----------



## Lwaxy

Yes they have,down to less than 30'% in my area and less than 10% where I used to live. The virus has also saved about 10k people in China alone who would usually die during the season due to air pollution, mostly people with asthma and obstructive pulmonary diseases. I can't find the source right now for this though. I was surprised reading this, it shows how less we value live and the environment over profit.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

GreyLord said:


> Something else I have been wondering about.  With all the lockdowns, stay at homes, and other items we are following I imagine car traffic is extremely low on the roads (also why oil has had it's struggles with their companies recently).
> 
> I wonder if car accident related deaths are likewise dropped to a much lower number recently.



Almost everything* has dropped.  The car accidents, shootings, etc.  Covid-19 is almost the only things ERs are seeing.

Law of Unintended Consequences: medical professionals who AREN’T on the front lines of the pandemic are facing salary cuts because their specialties are becoming less and less profitable.



* domestic assaults and similar issues are up, though


----------



## Hussar

NotAYakk said:


> Wow, that is a way to ruin your own plans.  Robbing Peter to pay Paul.




Oh, it's bloody insane.  See, Japan doesn't actually have a CDC.  As in a separate body, funded by the government, staffed by scientists whose job it is to combat diseases.  No, instead, Japan has bureaucrats in charge of science, with little or no actual science background, and often responsible to their political parties.  

Oh, yeah, it really inspires confidence in the government's handling of things when you flat out KNOW that the people making all the decisions actually have zero science background.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> Oh, it's bloody insane.  See, Japan doesn't actually have a CDC.  As in a separate body, funded by the government, staffed by scientists whose job it is to combat diseases.  No, instead, Japan has bureaucrats in charge of science, with little or no actual science background, and often responsible to their political parties.
> 
> Oh, yeah, it really inspires confidence in the government's handling of things when you flat out KNOW that the people making all the decisions actually have zero science background.



PREACH!


----------



## Zardnaar

And there goes our tourism industry.









						Auf Wiedersehen, jet: Lufthansa A380's stunning Sky Tower fly-by
					

The pilot of the final repatriation flight treated Auckland to a lap of the city, as the Sky Tower shone in the colours of the German flag.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Last plane out as such apart from the odd charter plane.


----------



## Deset Gled

Lwaxy said:


> Yes they have,down to less than 30'% in my area and less than 10% where I used to live. The virus has also saved about 10k people in China alone who would usually die during the season due to air pollution, mostly people with asthma and obstructive pulmonary diseases. I can't find the source right now for this though. I was surprised reading this, it shows how less we value live and the environment over profit.




I don't think it has as much to do about valuing life as it does to being able to draw the line.

When someone dies of COVID19, we have a test that can prove it, we can tally the numbers, and we can show clear cause and effect.

When someone dies of an asthma attack, you can say that air quality was a factor.  And you can say that genetics was a factor.  And access to long term vs. emergency health care was a factor.  And their personal exercise regimen and BMI was a factor.  When you can't draw a hard, direct, black line from the death to a single cause, you end up with ... statistics.


----------



## FrozenNorth

U


Dannyalcatraz said:


> I don’t think you could pass a tracking program in the USA and have it survive a Constitutional challenge without an actual amendment.



Unfortunately, I think you could “Inter arma, enim silent leges” (in times of war, the laws fall silent).

Or to put it another way, as I understand the American Constitution, there are few restraints on widescale invasion of privacy, so long as it isn’t the government doing so.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A private, opt in commercial product would be legal.  We have things like that already- your mobile devices have GPS “location services” and such.  We’ve already seen researchers use that data tracking spring breakers from Florida to their homes to see how they correlated with Covid-19 outbreaks.

I was talking about programs directly run and routinely accessed by government agencies, such as has been recently seen in other countries.  It may be a powerful tool for organizations like the CDC, EPA, NIH, etc., but it would almost certainly fail any legal pushback.  An Amendment could make the tool available, but the process  of getting it passed and ratified would take at least a decade.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Some historical perspective: on Covid-19:








						It's difficult to grasp the projected deaths from Covid-19. Here's how they compare to other causes of death
					

The numbers can seem catastrophic, overwhelming, and difficult for the human mind to grasp: What do 60,000 — or even 240,000 — deaths look like?




					www.statnews.com
				




Some potentially good news:








						FDA clears N95 decontamination process that could clean up to 4 million masks per day
					

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has provided an emergency use authorization (EUA) for a decontamination process provided by company Advanced Sterilization Products (ASP) that could see as many as 4 million N95 respirators per day sterilized for re-use.  This decontamination process...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I was talking about programs directly run and routinely accessed by government agencies, such as has been recently seen in other countries.  It may be a powerful tool for organizations like the CDC, EPA, NIH, etc., but it would almost certainly fail any legal pushback.  An Amendment could make the tool available, but the process  of getting it passed and ratified would take at least a decade.




I would also point out that there is no specific right to privacy in the constitution.  IIRC amendments have been discussed a handful of times but never formally voted on.  

From a pragmatic standpoint, this means that any tracking program attempted in the US would quite possible but very complicated. As you mention, a court process to approve it could take a decade, but it's also possible that acting to block it could take over a year (when it's hopefully no longer needed). Effectiveness in the interim would depend largely on cooperation at the state and local levels. And, and we have unfortunately seen in the US so far, this often ends up being a political fight rather than one of logic, science, or even philosophy.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> I would also point out that there is no specific right to privacy in the constitution.  IIRC amendments have been discussed a handful of times but never formally voted on.




The existence of a right to privacy- while not explicit- is pretty much settled constitutional law.  It’s a “penumbral” right, one that, if it didn’t exist, would make certain explicit rights worthless.



> And, and we have unfortunately seen in the US so far, this often ends up being a political fight rather than one of logic, science, or even philosophy.




Look at any legal system in the world, and you will find tradeoffs between those.  The only question is where the line will be drawn in a particular case.


----------



## NotAYakk

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Some historical perspective: on Covid-19:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's difficult to grasp the projected deaths from Covid-19. Here's how they compare to other causes of death
> 
> 
> The numbers can seem catastrophic, overwhelming, and difficult for the human mind to grasp: What do 60,000 — or even 240,000 — deaths look like?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statnews.com



600 - 2400 is "Pandemic response team was never crippled, stockpiles where built up, and we responded fast": see NZ.

6000 - 24,000 is "Pandemic response team was crippled, but CDC and other agencies proactively responded back in February to this issue".

60,000 - 240,000 is "successfully mitigated it with real, actual wartime levels of effort, starting in March" death rate territory.

600,000 - 2,400,000 is "failed mitigation, reaches herd immunity, but curve was spread out so health care system handled it" territory.

6,000,000 - 24,000,000 is "failed mitigation, health care system collapses" territory.

Talking about the "successful, after extreme measures" case and comparing it to other forms of death is, as far as I am considered, dishonest.  It understates how bad this situation is, and encourages being complacent.

It is like looking at the number of casualties in WW2 after the nukes where dropped, and implying that the nukes didn't have much impact.


> Some potentially good news:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FDA clears N95 decontamination process that could clean up to 4 million masks per day
> 
> 
> The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has provided an emergency use authorization (EUA) for a decontamination process provided by company Advanced Sterilization Products (ASP) that could see as many as 4 million N95 respirators per day sterilized for re-use.  This decontamination process...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



Yep.

Cheap and plentiful tests are the next ray of hope.  Then a vaccine or effective proven treatment.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Some potentially good news:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FDA clears N95 decontamination process that could clean up to 4 million masks per day
> 
> 
> The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has provided an emergency use authorization (EUA) for a decontamination process provided by company Advanced Sterilization Products (ASP) that could see as many as 4 million N95 respirators per day sterilized for re-use.  This decontamination process...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




Not far from me, in a now-closed K-mart building, they've set up one of these beasts - it can decontaminate _80,000 N95 masks a day_. Each mask can go through the process 5 to 10 times. Use will be available for free to any hospital or first-responder organization in the state.





__





						Battelle | It Can Be Done
					

Battelle is a global research and development organization committed to science and technology for the greater good. At Battelle, it can be done.




					www.battelle.org


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The existence of a right to privacy- while not explicit- is pretty much settled constitutional law.  It’s a “penumbral” right, one that, if it didn’t exist, would make certain explicit rights worthless.




But as a "penumbral law" (looked that one up ), isn't that pretty limited in scope?  My understanding is that right to privacy is only a thing in very limited circumstances.  You have privacy in your home (covered by search and seizure laws, etc) and you have privacy with your personal information (HIPPA).  But you have no real right to privacy when you are in public.

Obviously I'm glossing over a lot of the details (both broad and minutiae, and especially with regards to civil law, which isn't directly applicable here).  But at the end of the day, anyone can be filmed in public without giving consent, and the police can do things like scan license plates or track when you leave and enter your home without a warrant; they just can't search you or follow you inside without one.  That's the same sort of information that could be collected by the government to help track COVID.  There's plenty of allowance to watch movement of people between buildings in a town, along roads between cities, or any other form of regional transit.

Also, just to be clear, I'm not arguing this is morally right or wouldn't get eventually tossed out.  I'm just saying that I think the laws are gray/loose enough to allow something like this to happen on a temporary basis.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> 600 - 2400 is "Pandemic response team was never crippled, stockpiles where built up, and we responded fast": see NZ.
> 
> 6000 - 24,000 is "Pandemic response team was crippled, but CDC and other agencies proactively responded back in February to this issue".
> 
> 60,000 - 240,000 is "successfully mitigated it with real, actual wartime levels of effort, starting in March" death rate territory.
> 
> 600,000 - 2,400,000 is "failed mitigation, reaches herd immunity, but curve was spread out so health care system handled it" territory.
> 
> 6,000,000 - 24,000,000 is "failed mitigation, health care system collapses" territory.
> 
> Talking about the "successful, after extreme measures" case and comparing it to other forms of death is, as far as I am considered, dishonest.  It understates how bad this situation is, and encourages being complacent.
> 
> It is like looking at the number of casualties in WW2 after the nukes where dropped, and implying that the nukes didn't have much impact.
> 
> Yep.
> 
> Cheap and plentiful tests are the next ray of hope.  Then a vaccine or effective proven treatment.




Funny you mention nukes.  I had to do an essay on it at uni.

Gets back to my bad, worse, awful example earlier.

Drop nukes. 110-150k die. Hope Japan surrenders

Don't drop nukes 100-200k die per week just in China alone. Hope Japan surrenders.

Invade Japan 500k-1 million Americans die, millions of Japanese die. Force Japan to surrender.

Bad, worse, awful no matter what you pick people gonna die.

 There's scenarios where the herd immunity plan is going to look rational and the best of a lot of bad options.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

This is how the virus spreads:









						How a Premier U.S. Drug Company Became a Virus 'Super Spreader'
					

BOSTON -- On the first Monday in March, Michel Vounatsos, chief executive of the drug company Biogen, appeared in good spirits. The company's new Alzheimer's drug was showing promise after years of setbacks. Revenues had never been higher.Onstage at an elite health care conference in Boston,




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

And apparently this is an issue in Canada, as well as the US:









						Coronavirus closes meat plants in Canada and the United States as world's largest pork producer warns of shortages
					

Here are some facilities that have shut or reduced production




					business.financialpost.com


----------



## Zardnaar

You guys are getting where we were 2-3 weeks ago on a different forum.

Pre Covid

The polite way of saying it by the time summer rolls around more than a few Americans are gonna get to play the dodge the lingering Covid as they get to wait in breadlines and soup kitchens.

I read history, did some economic papers. Things are falling apart faster than 1929.









						Great Depression - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




Best case scenario somewhere between the above and GFC of 2008. Here the government converted a stadium to a food bank. That was a week ago.

They've point blank told us things are gonna get worse for an indeterminate amount if time.

Hell when this started our PM did a US style presidential speech. That's practically unheard of here. She had a picture of Michael Savage behind her, he's the WW2 NZ equivalent of FDR. Message sent.

They're trying to avoid panic but they've been invoking the war years both directly and indirectly.

It's not going to be can people I know play D&D it's more going to be like do people I know have enough to eat. Or am I going to have enough to eat.

 She spent most of yesterdays daily update tamping down questions of business as usual post lockdown.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> But at the end of the day, anyone can be filmed in public without giving consent




The "in public" is relevant.

An element of this is the _expectation_ of privacy.  I have an expectation of privacy in my own home, for example, but I have no such expectation when out in the town square.  Unless your application can selectively disregard contacts in places where there's an expectation of privacy, it has a problem.  And the device has no real way of knowing when that expectation exists.

This is why the Google and Apple approach has to be voluntary - you have to opt in to the violation of your privacy.  If it becomes a requirement, it is an abridgement of rights.  This makes the inclusion of features for this on the OS level... an issue that will need close examination.  Users have to be able to easily turn it off.


----------



## NotAYakk

There are a pile of precident that, given a compelling government interest, rights (and especially derived rights) can be infringed to the least they can to fullfill the interest.

So tracking and contacting everyone exposed to the coronovirus seems like the kind of thing that would survive scrutiny, even if not voluntary.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> So tracking and contacting everyone exposed to the coronovirus seems like the kind of thing that would survive scrutiny, even if not voluntary.




And if it were limited to people who had contact, that'd be fine.  That is normal contact tracing.

But we are potentially talking about tracking _everyone, at all times_ and then using that data for contact tracing after the fact.  That there's nothing fundamentally keeping those who hold the data from tracking on any other metadata must also be considered in its Constitutionality.


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> An element of this is the _expectation_ of privacy.  I have an expectation of privacy in my own home, for example, but I have no such expectation when out in the town square.  Unless your application can selectively disregard contacts in places where there's an expectation of privacy, it has a problem.  And the device has no real way of knowing when that expectation exists.




There are lots of ways to work around this.

First, I probably should have been more clear, I'm not exclusively talking about this being a cell phone app.  A simple camera network reading license plates on roads, highways, and public parking areas would be just as useful for many applications.  And in the US most of these cameras already exist; they're just not being used for this purpose.  Add in information from security check points in public buildings like airports and hospitals, and you've got even more data.  Add in sci-fi level facial recognition and you've got more data than you could process.

On a phone app, though, there are still a lot of work-arounds with varying levels of grayness as to their morality and/or legality.  The most obvious one being that software simply could selectively disregard information in places where there's an expectation of privacy.  It's possible the phone may not know if something is public or private in certain inbetween areas, but it will also know when it's definitely in public areas such as the street or public buildings.  

Alternately, just lower the resolution of the data.  If your location voxel is larger than your house, it's implicit that it's not taking private data from inside your house.  But you'll still be able to get plenty of useful tracking data even at low resolution.

Another option: don't continuously track a phone.  Just place "checkpoints" at multiple places in public areas.  Any time a phone is near the checkpoint, it connects and checks in.  Since the checkpoints are only in public areas, there is no expectation of privacy.  Still delivers plenty of data.  This one also wouldn't require a phone.  Conspiracy theorists have been talking about systems like this built into ID cards and credit cards and even dollar bills for decades.  With RFID tags being reality instead of sci-fi, this is easier than ever.

The thesis of all this, which is moving farther and farther away from COVID19 as I type more examples, is that there are ways that the government could get large amounts of tracking data.  The legal and technological barriers exist, but are only minor obstacles if someone had the proper motivation.


----------



## Zardnaar

We're looking at cellphone tracking in my SPPS.

No constitution but we have constitutional law. Constitutional head of state QE2.

Next time I sing God Save the Queen I think I'll do it with a bit more gusto. Wish succession laws could skip a generation. Nothing's perfect.

Things move a bit faster.

Mass shooting. Semi automatics banned 3 days later.

Covid community transmission, lockdown 2 days later.

Stimulus package about 3 days after that.

Friends small business got 3 months wage subsidy already of 30k.

We trust our government more without one than the US does with one. Health department and police are basically running the country the polititians just sign the paperwork and checks.

Local government set up the foodbank in stadium, goverments signed the check.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This will surprise nobody familiar with the drugs being tested or who have listened to the experts who were:








						Small Chloroquine Study Halted Over Risk of Fatal Heart Complications
					

A small study in Brazil was halted early for safety reasons after coronavirus patients taking a higher dose of chloroquine developed irregular heart rates that increased their risk of a potentially fatal heart arrhythmia.Chloroquine is closely related to the more widely used drug hydroxychloroquine.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This will surprise nobody familiar with the drugs being tested or tp who have listened to the experts who were:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Small Chloroquine Study Halted Over Risk of Fatal Heart Complications
> 
> 
> A small study in Brazil was halted early for safety reasons after coronavirus patients taking a higher dose of chloroquine developed irregular heart rates that increased their risk of a potentially fatal heart arrhythmia.Chloroquine is closely related to the more widely used drug hydroxychloroquine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




Who would have thunk it?

 Anyone got a meme of the statue of liberty crying with a facemask?


----------



## Hussar

Deset Gled said:


> There are lots of ways to work around this.
> 
> First, I probably should have been more clear, I'm not exclusively talking about this being a cell phone app.  A simple camera network reading license plates on roads, highways, and public parking areas would be just as useful for many applications.  And in the US most of these cameras already exist; they're just not being used for this purpose.  Add in information from security check points in public buildings like airports and hospitals, and you've got even more data.  Add in sci-fi level facial recognition and you've got more data than you could process.
> 
> /snip
> Another option: don't continuously track a phone.  Just place "checkpoints" at multiple places in public areas.  Any time a phone is near the checkpoint, it connects and checks in.  Since the checkpoints are only in public areas, there is no expectation of privacy.  Still delivers plenty of data.  This one also wouldn't require a phone.  Conspiracy theorists have been talking about systems like this built into ID cards and credit cards and even dollar bills for decades.  With RFID tags being reality instead of sci-fi, this is easier than ever.
> 
> The thesis of all this, which is moving farther and farther away from COVID19 as I type more examples, is that there are ways that the government could get large amounts of tracking data.  The legal and technological barriers exist, but are only minor obstacles if someone had the proper motivation.




The technological barriers might only be minor, but, the legal barriers are a LOT stronger than I think you appreciate.  Number one, most of those roads are not federal.  They are state, or even county (provincial or county in Canada), meaning that the federal government has zero rights to monitor traffic cameras (for example) to track individuals.  While I'm sure that traffic camera data is used for some purposes, I really, really doubt it would survive any challenge if you were actually tracking individuals.  Remember, you cannot even require travel papers within the country.  Police have zero right to ask you for identification without probably cause.  Police, while they might be able to randomly check your license plate, would have a serious issue if they were surveilling you without a warrant or probable cause for any length of time.

The chance for abuse of this information is massive.  The security you'd need around this information is incredible and you'd have to trust that, for effectively perpetuity, people in government positions would be free of any sort of improperiety.  There are all sorts of business and governmental agencies that would pay all the monies for access to this information.


----------



## Deset Gled

Hussar said:


> The technological barriers might only be minor, but, the legal barriers are a LOT stronger than I think you appreciate.  Number one, most of those roads are not federal.  They are state, or even county (provincial or county in Canada), meaning that the federal government has zero rights to monitor traffic cameras (for example) to track individuals.  While I'm sure that traffic camera data is used for some purposes, I really, really doubt it would survive any challenge if you were actually tracking individuals.  Remember, you cannot even require travel papers within the country.  Police have zero right to ask you for identification without probably cause.  Police, while they might be able to randomly check your license plate, would have a serious issue if they were surveilling you without a warrant or probable cause for any length of time.




I think the legal barriers are a lot grayer than you think.

New Jersey stores your plate information for 5 years every time you drive by one of their cameras, and they are one of the few states with a law that says they have to eventually delete it.  Many states use data "pooled into regional sharing systems".

On the other side of the country, here's a video of officers in Denver literally pulling up personal info on every car that drives past an intentionally placed cruiser.

True, people like the ACLU are fighting this.  But right now, there's nothing stopping police from simply putting a number of cars in strategic locations, taking the plate from every car that drives past, and giving that info to the feds.  And this is without even bringing up the automatic tolling system.



> The chance for abuse of this information is massive.  The security you'd need around this information is incredible and you'd have to trust that, for effectively perpetuity, people in government positions would be free of any sort of improperiety.  There are all sorts of business and governmental agencies that would pay all the monies for access to this information.




No disagreement with you on that point.  It's a little scary.

Also, it's common for  businesses to use the same tools and information.[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

OTOH, @Deset Gled, Texas barely uses most of their traffic cameras because they violate the state constitution in numerous ways, so they’re mostly there for real-time traffic data.  No more tickets via camera.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> But as a "penumbral law" (looked that one up ), isn't that pretty limited in scope?  My understanding is that right to privacy is only a thing in very limited circumstances.  You have privacy in your home (covered by search and seizure laws, etc) and you have privacy with your personal information (HIPPA).  But you have no real right to privacy when you are in public.
> 
> Obviously I'm glossing over a lot of the details (both broad and minutiae, and especially with regards to civil law, which isn't directly applicable here).  But at the end of the day, anyone can be filmed in public without giving consent, and the police can do things like scan license plates or track when you leave and enter your home without a warrant; they just can't search you or follow you inside without one.  That's the same sort of information that could be collected by the government to help track COVID.  There's plenty of allowance to watch movement of people between buildings in a town, along roads between cities, or any other form of regional transit.
> 
> Also, just to be clear, I'm not arguing this is morally right or wouldn't get eventually tossed out.  I'm just saying that I think the laws are gray/loose enough to allow something like this to happen on a temporary basis.




I’m a contracts lawyer, mainly, but even I can see the big problem with tracking has to do with freedom of assembly rights and the intersecting right to privacy.  If the government can figure out where you are, they know who you are with.  If they know THAT, they can curtail your right to free assembly “for reasons”.

The thing is there’s all kinds of case law that limits the ability of the government to collect that kind of data on precisely those issues.  All kinds of organizations and private individuals have successfully fought to keep their list of known associates private, unless and until the government can show a legitimate reason for doing so AND obtaining a warrant for gathering such info.  Some of those laws DO have exigent circumstances exceptions, but not all, and those that do are narrowly construed against the government.

A government tracking system would need t be “always on” to be of any real use.  To satisfy current law, such data would have to be stored in an “inaccessible black box“ unless and until a warrant was obtained.

Even if that passed a sniff test and made it into law, the first instant that black box was breached, it’s likely the law would be challenged and invalidated.  How would the government prove that it could prevent future breaches?  (It can’t.)

So, in order to have a legal and effective tracking tool like this, you’d need a very carefully drafted Amendment negating the need for warrants to access the data.

And honestly, I don’t see that happening.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m a contracts lawyer, mainly, but even I can see the big problem with tracking has to do with freedom of assembly rights and the intersecting right to privacy.  If the government can figure out where you are, they know who you are with.  If they know THAT, they can curtail your right to free assembly “for reasons”.
> 
> The thing is there’s all kinds of case law that limits the ability of the government to collect that kind of data on precisely those issues.  All kinds of organizations and private individuals have successfully fought to keep their list of known associates private, unless and until the government can show a legitimate reason for doing so AND obtaining a warrant for gathering such info.  Some of those laws DO have exigent circumstances exceptions, but not all, and those that do are narrowly construed against the government.
> 
> A government tracking system would need t be “always on” to be of any real use.  To satisfy current law, such data would have to be stored in an “inaccessible black box“ unless and until a warrant was obtained.
> 
> Even if that passed a sniff test and made it into law, the first instant that black box was breached, it’s likely the law would be challenged and invalidated.  How would the government prove that it could prevent future breaches?  (It can’t.)
> 
> So, in order to have a legal and effective tracking tool like this, you’d need a very carefully drafted Amendment negating the need for warrants to access the data.
> 
> And honestly, I don’t see that happening.




 USA
 Give me liberty or give me death.

NZ
Have fun with the death part.

 13 colonies wanna rejoin the Commonwealth?


----------



## Mallus

Zardnaar said:


> USA
> Give me liberty or give me death.



In reality...

USA
Give me liberty or give me death.
<faces actual death>
Help us, federal government, you’re our only hope!


----------



## tomBitonti

Deset Gled said:


> But as a "penumbral law" (looked that one up ), isn't that pretty limited in scope?  My understanding is that right to privacy is only a thing in very limited circumstances.  You have privacy in your home (covered by search and seizure laws, etc) and you have privacy with your personal information (HIPPA).  But you have no real right to privacy when you are in public.
> 
> Obviously I'm glossing over a lot of the details (both broad and minutiae, and especially with regards to civil law, which isn't directly applicable here).  But at the end of the day, anyone can be filmed in public without giving consent, and the police can do things like scan license plates or track when you leave and enter your home without a warrant; they just can't search you or follow you inside without one.  That's the same sort of information that could be collected by the government to help track COVID.  There's plenty of allowance to watch movement of people between buildings in a town, along roads between cities, or any other form of regional transit.
> 
> Also, just to be clear, I'm not arguing this is morally right or wouldn't get eventually tossed out.  I'm just saying that I think the laws are gray/loose enough to allow something like this to happen on a temporary basis.




There are other limitations.  For example, continuous, 24 hour surveillance is not allowed without a warrant.  There is precedence on this in re police putting a tracker on a suspects car.  (Although, this is a limited protection if most public locations perform surveillance.)

Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Zardnaar

Mallus said:


> In reality...
> 
> USA
> Give me liberty or give me death.
> <faces actual death>
> Help us, federal government, you’re our only hope!




 Yeah pretty much. We had some think tank here that qualified for assistance. 

 "We'll never take government money"

 Poo hits the fan splattering the room.

 Takes a handout.


----------



## ccs

Mallus said:


> In reality...
> 
> USA
> Give me liberty or give me death.
> <faces actual death>
> Help us, federal government, you’re our only hope!




Well then we're all screwed.


----------



## Mallus

ccs said:


> Well then we're all screwed.



I’m trying to be optimistic!

(my wife covers the pessimism)


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> Well then we're all screwed.




 Of things go well you might have a chance post January.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This will surprise nobody familiar with the drugs being tested or who have listened to the experts who were:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Small Chloroquine Study Halted Over Risk of Fatal Heart Complications
> 
> 
> A small study in Brazil was halted early for safety reasons after coronavirus patients taking a higher dose of chloroquine developed irregular heart rates that increased their risk of a potentially fatal heart arrhythmia.Chloroquine is closely related to the more widely used drug hydroxychloroquine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




It doesn't surprise me, but it does sadden me that this got rejected so quickly. Even if it wasn't THE fix, I was hoping it might have been a sometimes/right situation fix.


----------



## Zardnaar

Daily government update in my SPPS.

4 more dead, 9 total,6 from same rest home.
17 new cases

Probably peaked/contained.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Looks like IHME has raised their projections for cumulative US covid deaths from 61k to 69k, with the usual big uncertainties and "first wave" qualifier.


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Of things go well you might have a chance post January.




I'll have a chance post Jan.   Both medically & financially. 
But it'll be _despite_ the <insert vile expletives here/very stable genius/Republicans/Democrats> in Washington.


----------



## ad_hoc

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Looks like IHME has raised their projections for cumulative US covid deaths from 61k to 69k, with the usual big uncertainties and "first wave" qualifier.




It looks like New York is starting to recover so we will probably see a big dip in death rate for a time.

I'm expecting other states like Florida and Texas to have big outbreaks soon though. Things like that executive order in Texas to get people back out are just not going to go well.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> There are lots of ways to work around this.




Let us note that, "this," stands for, "the guarantees of what we consider to be fundamental rights."

"There are lots of ways to work around the guarantees of what we consider to be fundamental rights," doesn't sound good to me.


----------



## The Green Hermit

ad_hoc said:


> It looks like New York is starting to recover so we will probably see a big dip in death rate for a time.
> 
> I'm expecting other states like Florida and Texas to have big outbreaks soon though. Things like that executive order in Texas to get people back out are just not going to go well.




I agree with you. My heart hurts for the people that live there.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The Green Hermit said:


> It doesn't surprise me, but it does sadden me that this got rejected so quickly. Even if it wasn't THE fix, I was hoping it might have been a sometimes/right situation fix.



The drugs in question had known potential side effects of cardiac arrest and blindness under certain circumstances...from the very first dose.

So absent really substantially positive indicators that it worked for Covid-19, it wasn’t like to get anything more than a emergency approval.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Which is why I am not surprised. I was still hoping that there was a chance of it getting an emergency/dire situations only approval, though.


----------



## NotAYakk

Sweden reported 20 deaths yesterday.  I was like "wtfbbq", then checked; monday is a holiday.  So Covid-19 took the day off, like it did every weekend for the last month in Sweden.

In related news, USA official death count is 23,640.  1 day away from 25k.  I should go back and see how well I pegged it.

Death rate is a tad under heart attacks/cancer now; it peaked as the #1 cause of death in the USA for a few days last week (and was undercounted; dozens to hundreds of people are dying from covid 19 before theynget tested every day).


----------



## FrogReaver

U.S. Population 330 million
U.S. Coronavirus Deaths to date 23,640
U.S. Deaths per day for yesterday 1,535

Europe (UK, Spain, France, Italy, Germany) Population 324 million
Europe (UK, Spain, France, Italy, Germany) Coronavirus deaths to date 67,711
Europe (UK, Spain, France, Italy, Germany) Deaths per day for yesterday 2,576

Perspective helps.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

FrogReaver said:


> ...Perspective helps.




I don't think anyone is disputing that the US is doing relatively well in deaths per population when compared to Europe. (So far! Hopefully it will stay that way!). While the overall US response was pretty bad (most of the world dropped the ball, really) it wasn't as bad as Italy & Spain (and it looks like France & UK aren't far behind). Of course, it would have been worse if it weren't for Italy & Spain showing us all how NOT to do it. Poor folks.


----------



## Ogre Mage

Interesting article in _Fortune_ -- 



> Looking for examples of true leadership in a crisis? From Iceland to Taiwan and from Germany to New Zealand, women are stepping up to show the world how to manage a messy patch for our human family. Add in Finland, Iceland and Denmark, and this pandemic is revealing that women have what it takes when the heat rises in our Houses of State. Many will say these are small countries, or islands, or other exceptions. But Germany is large and leading, and the UK is an island with very different outcomes. These leaders are gifting us an attractive alternative way of wielding power. What are they teaching us?




What do countries with the best coronavirus responses have in common? Women leaders.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ogre Mage said:


> Interesting article in _Fortune_ --
> 
> 
> 
> What do countries with the best coronavirus responses have in common? Women leaders.




NZ was the first country in the world to Grant universal sufferage in 1893.

We set another record I think. World's first matriarchal police state

Head of state female.
Governor general female
Prime minister female.

First female leader rolled the sitting PM, got slaughtered at the polls replaced with another female the first elected female PM.

Voted for both, the first one was horrible though. She only lasted a year or so and lost the election.


----------



## NotAYakk

Italy showed us the consequence of panicing too late.  By the time this was clear, it was too late for Spain and France.  And on the edge for NYC and UK.

Don't compare your nation to Italy, France and Spain.  Compare it to Taiwan and SK.  Both got threatened earlier and harder, and both successfully stopped it.

I only don't include NZ because it had the luxury of being hit late.

It will be interesting in the medium term.  There will be places where it is endemic, places where it sputters, and places where Covid-19 will be wiped out.  Travelers from more-infected places will be dangerous to less-infected areas.

Do uninfected areas maintain a multi-day quarrentine with tests in order to prevent import?  Do ships on the high seas have to test crew in transit, with protocols if they find an infreted person?


----------



## Zardnaar

Burger King in receivership here. RIP.


----------



## The Green Hermit

receivership?


----------



## Zardnaar

The Green Hermit said:


> receivership?




 Kinda like bankruptcy. Not sure if it's like Chapter 11.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Gotcha. It's just not a term we use in the states.


----------



## Zardnaar

The Green Hermit said:


> Gotcha. It's just not a term we use in the states.




 Yeah they may be able to trade their way out. 

 They got 11 million wage subsidy


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> U.S. Population 330 million
> U.S. Coronavirus Deaths to date 23,640
> U.S. Deaths per day for yesterday 1,535
> 
> Europe (UK, Spain, France, Italy, Germany) Population 324 million
> Europe (UK, Spain, France, Italy, Germany) Coronavirus deaths to date 67,711
> Europe (UK, Spain, France, Italy, Germany) Deaths per day for yesterday 2,576
> 
> Perspective helps.




Okay. Let's have fun with numbers.

New York State total deaths per million population - 513

Italy deaths per million population - 338

Spain deaths per million population - 380

France deaths per million population - 229

New York State is the epicenter of the world right now. And yes, New York State also has more deaths per day than any other country.

A few states have it under control. With measures not being fully implemented in many states and those states and others ready to lift what measures they have the USA is in for trouble.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> Okay. Let's have fun with numbers.
> 
> New York State total deaths per million population - 513
> 
> Italy deaths per million population - 338
> 
> Spain deaths per million population - 380
> 
> France deaths per million population - 229
> 
> New York State is the epicenter of the world right now. And yes, New York State also has more deaths per day than any other country.
> 
> A few states have it under control. With measures not being fully implemented in many states and those states and others ready to lift what measures they have the USA is in for trouble.




Not really meaningful. 

The comparison you would be looking for would be Northern Italy vs New York State.  Not all of Italy vs New York State.  I don't have numbers on Northern Italy in isolation though - but I'm sure that it's much closer to New York State in terms of per million population as it's where the virus hit hardest in Italy - probably even surpasses New York State's per million population numbers.

I've not followed Spain close enough to know it's hotspots.


----------



## FrozenNorth

Dannyalcatraz said:


> A private, opt in commercial product would be legal.  We have things like that already- your mobile devices have GPS “location services” and such.  We’ve already seen researchers use that data tracking spring breakers from Florida to their homes to see how they correlated with Covid-19 outbreaks.



Please correct my failing memory, but was Facebook ever fined for its misuse of client data?  Again, nothing prevents the government from accessing Facebook’s data by buying access to it, like other institutions.


----------



## FrozenNorth

Umbran said:


> Let us note that, "this," stands for, "the guarantees of what we consider to be fundamental rights."
> 
> "There are lots of ways to work around the guarantees of what we consider to be fundamental rights," doesn't sound good to me.



I think we all agree here.  We just disagree about how optimistic to be about the government saveguarding our civil liberties.


----------



## Zardnaar

You guys have civil liberties atm?

 Novel concept.


----------



## Umbran

FrozenNorth said:


> Please correct my failing memory, but was Facebook ever fined for its misuse of client data?  Again, nothing prevents the government from accessing Facebook’s data by buying access to it, like other institutions.




Oh, several things can prevent the government from using such data.  The government cannot do many things that private companies can. 

Example - the First Amendment keeps the government from restricting your free speech.  But Morrus can do so within the realm of his own website.  

In this case, the Fourth Amendment may apply - protection against unusual search and seizure, and need of warrants for the government to access people's private lives.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrozenNorth said:


> Please correct my failing memory, but was Facebook ever fined for its misuse of client data?  Again, nothing prevents the government from accessing Facebook’s data by buying access to it, like other institutions.



$5Bn.


----------



## tomBitonti

Working from a different direction:

How long (if ever) until the virus is eradicated outside of laboratories?
What proportion of people would need to have resistance to the virus to prevent a new outbreak?
My sense this is that the virus will be with us for at least several years, and for a R0 of 2-3, at least 1/2 or 2/3 of folks would need to have resistance to prevent new outbreaks.

We can hope for a treatment or a vaccine, but the likely alternative is that social distancing will need to continue until most folks have been exposed to the virus, and that current strategies are really to stretch the time until that happens so that heath care is not overwhelmed.

I haven't considered to any great extent what happens if folks who acquire the virus obtain no enduring resistance.

Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Istbor

FrogReaver said:


> U.S. Population 330 million
> U.S. Coronavirus Deaths to date 23,640
> U.S. Deaths per day for yesterday 1,535
> 
> Europe (UK, Spain, France, Italy, Germany) Population 324 million
> Europe (UK, Spain, France, Italy, Germany) Coronavirus deaths to date 67,711
> Europe (UK, Spain, France, Italy, Germany) Deaths per day for yesterday 2,576
> 
> Perspective helps.




Oh so it's not that bad. I can go out and pretend this was all just overreaction. Thanks for showing us all the the correct perspective.


----------



## Morrus

ad_hoc said:


> Okay. Let's have fun with numbers.
> 
> New York State total deaths per million population - 513
> 
> Italy deaths per million population - 338
> 
> Spain deaths per million population - 380
> 
> France deaths per million population - 229
> 
> New York State is the epicenter of the world right now. And yes, New York State also has more deaths per day than any other country.



Well, you can pick and choose population dense spots and compare them to less dense spots. I mean, you could also compare the US as a whole to one badly struck city in Italy, and get the opposite conclusion. You can pick a single house in Iceland where one person lived and sadly died, giving you a figure of a million deaths per million population, declaring that the world epicentre.

A fairer comparison might be New York City vs. London or another equally similarly size/dense city.

In the long run, each situation is unique in terms of population density, geography, mobility, degree of social distancing, age of population, and how far into the pandemic it is. We don't really have the tools to compare them here.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

As I recall, MMR vaccination rates for the USA have _dropped_ to @85%, which is why we’ve had several measles outbreaks in the past few years.

From the CDC:


> The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) analyzed data from two telephone surveys, the National Immunization Survey-Flu (NIS-Flu) and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), to estimate flu vaccination coverage for the U.S. population during the 2018–19 flu season. Vaccination coverage with ≥1 dose of flu vaccine was 62.6% among children 6 months through 17 years, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the 2017–18 flu season and 3.6 percentage points higher than coverage in the 2016–17 season. Flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years was 45.3%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points from the 2017–18 flu season and 2.0 percentage points higher than the 2016–17 season.




I’m thinking we’re going to have to do better with Covid-19- and the rest, too- if we want to avoid repeated major disruptions.

...which reminds me:








						Amid the coronavirus outbreak, China is now also fighting deadly bird flu in chickens
					

In a province near the coronavirus epicenter, China has reported an animal outbreak of the deadly H5N1 bird flu in chickens.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




AFAIK, it’s still just confined to avians at the moment, but it should be noted and monitored.


----------



## Umbran

tomBitonti said:


> Working from a different direction:
> 
> How long (if ever) until the virus is eradicated outside of laboratories?
> What proportion of people would need to have resistance to the virus to prevent a new outbreak




Well, a rough, back-of-the envelope approximation is to note that, each time the susceptible population is halved, you might expect R0 to also be rouhgly halved, effectively.  Outbreaks are usually limited if R0 is below 1.  So, if R0 of covid-19 is, say, 3.5... if half the population is immune, that drops to 1.75.  If there quarters are immune, effective R0 drops to 0.875.

Mind you, R0 is only a guideline and average - you can have an outbreak with lots of folks sick and dying with an R0 less than one thorough super-spreader events, or if demographics make it such that specific communities have immunity, and others do not.



> We can hope for a treatment or a vaccine, but the likely alternative is that social distancing will need to continue until most folks have been exposed to the virus




This needs repetition:  *We currently do not have evidence that exposure gives any lasting immunity to this disease! * There are many in the coronavirus family that do not produce lasting immunity though exposure. So, we cannot expect it here - hope is not a strategy.


----------



## NotAYakk

Dannyalcatraz said:


> As I recall, MMR vaccination rates for the USA have _dropped_ to @85%, which is why we’ve had several measles outbreaks in the past few years.



Measles is more contagious than Covid-19.

It is "airborn" with an R0 of around 15.

Covid-19 is droplets, with an R0 of around 3.


----------



## tomBitonti

Umbran said:


> Well, a rough, back-of-the envelope approximation is to note that, each time the susceptible population is halved, you might expect R0 to also be rouhgly halved, effectively.  Outbreaks are usually limited if R0 is below 1.  So, if R0 of covid-19 is, say, 3.5... if half the population is immune, that drops to 1.75.  If there quarters are immune, effective R0 drops to 0.875.
> 
> Mind you, R0 is only a guideline and average - you can have an outbreak with lots of folks sick and dying with an R0 less than one thorough super-spreader events, or if demographics make it such that specific communities have immunity, and others do not.
> 
> This needs repetition:  *We currently do not have evidence that exposure gives any lasting immunity to this disease! * There are many in the coronavirus family that do not produce lasting immunity though exposure. So, we cannot expect it here - hope is not a strategy.




I set the proportion of the population relative to the R0 value: 1/2 for R0 being 2, 2/3 for R0 being 3.

I'm aware that there is no evidence of lasting immunity.  If there is no lasting immunity, then what?  If there is neither lasting immunity, nor an effective treatment, nor a vaccine?  How many times could a person contract the virus before they succumb to it?  Is the end state here an eventual reduction to only persons inherently resistant to the virus?

Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## ad_hoc

Morrus said:


> Well, you can pick and choose population dense spots and compare them to less dense spots. I mean, you could also compare the US as a whole to one badly struck city in Italy, and get the opposite conclusion. You can pick a single house in Iceland where one person lived and sadly died, giving you a figure of a million deaths per million population, declaring that the world epicentre.
> 
> A fairer comparison might be New York City vs. London or another equally similarly size/dense city.
> 
> In the long run, each situation is unique in terms of population density, geography, mobility, degree of social distancing, age of population, and how far into the pandemic it is. We don't really have the tools to compare them here.




That's my point exactly.

We can all play numberwang if we want to.


----------



## Umbran

tomBitonti said:


> I'm aware that there is no evidence of lasting immunity.  If there is no lasting immunity, then what?
> If there is neither lasting immunity, nor an effective treatment, nor a vaccine?




I don't think anyone really knows the answer to that question.

We should remember that R0 is not _intrinsic_ to the virus - it is a combination of its intrinsic properties and our behaviors - that's what social distancing is all about, effectively reducing R0.

So, if there's no lasting immunity, no effective treatment, no vaccine... then if I must speculate - we go to massive testing and contact tracing to isolate outbreaks and limit their ability to spread?


----------



## FrogReaver

Morrus said:


> Well, you can pick and choose population dense spots and compare them to less dense spots. I mean, you could also compare the US as a whole to one badly struck city in Italy, and get the opposite conclusion. You can pick a single house in Iceland where one person lived and sadly died, giving you a figure of a million deaths per million population, declaring that the world epicentre.
> 
> A fairer comparison might be New York City vs. London or another equally similarly size/dense city.
> 
> In the long run, each situation is unique in terms of population density, geography, mobility, degree of social distancing, age of population, and how far into the pandemic it is. We don't really have the tools to compare them here.




agree.  IMO the US and the 5 big European countries make one of the fairest comparison for now.  It’s not perfect but you pointed out the issue with most comparisons very well.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> That's my point exactly.
> 
> We can all play numberwang if we want to.




what makes you think US vs Europe was a bad comparison?


----------



## tomBitonti

Umbran said:


> I don't think anyone really knows the answer to that question.
> 
> We should remember that R0 is not _intrinsic_ to the virus - it is a combination of its intrinsic properties and our behaviors - that's what social distancing is all about, effectively reducing R0.
> 
> So, if there's no lasting immunity, no effective treatment, no vaccine... then if I must speculate - we go to massive testing and contact tracing to isolate outbreaks and limit their ability to spread?



Which, in the US, leads to (1) the brick wall of invasive contact monitoring, plus (2) social distancing for years, plus (3) massive increases in testing.  The difficulty with testing being asymptomatic spreaders.

(I‘m trying to build a rigorous analytic framework for understanding the likely consequences of the virus.)

Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Umbran

tomBitonti said:


> Which, in the US, leads to (1) the brick wall of invasive contact monitoring, plus (2) social distancing for years, plus (3) massive increases in testing.  The difficulty with testing being asymptomatic spreaders.




There's a lot of contact tracing that can be done with just people that isn't particularly invasive.  You can imagine we might need teams of volunteers that can be trained, and then called up when necessary.  Heck, just put it in National Guard training, and we have thousands of people who can do contract tracing.

Years of social distancing?  Probably not.  I'd expect instead a shorter period of more harsh "shelter at home" measures, with significant narrowing of what is "essential workers".  Coupled with ramped up testing (which is a supply issue, not a technology issue) and contact tracing and you can avoid years of distancing, and replace it with far more targeted quarantines.



> (I‘m trying to build a rigorous analytic framework for understanding the likely consequences of the virus.)




With respect - "rigorous analytic framework" is an epidemiologist's job.  Unless you're going back to school to get a new degree, real rigor will be denied you.

Edit to add:  a nice piece on contact tracing - How Contact Tracing Works And How It Can Help Reopen The Country


----------



## NotAYakk

If you have 1$ at-home tests that take an hour, and a 75% effective contact-tracing plus modest social distancing, you can wipe this thing out in a month or two.

Really.

It has an R0 of 3ish.  Modest social distancing at least halves that, down to 1.5.  75% effective contact tracing means only 0.375 people are infected and untraced for each infected person.  Cheap at-home tests means that even asymptomatic get detected.

Suppose this means that every 3.5 days, 0.5 people are infected for every infected person.  And you start with *100 million* cases.

Every week, 4 times fewer people are newly infected.  14 weeks to 0 people newly infected.

And it gets better, because when you are down to a few 1000, the contact tracing apparatus won't be disassembled and scale down; instead, it will go into overdrive.  Going from 100 million to 10 thousand took the first 7 weeks; so if your contact tracing and isolation doubles in effectiveness with nobody around, it only takes 3.5 weeks to choke off that last 10,000.

Doing this in one region becomes one challenge, but quite doable.

Then you have to do it elsewhere.  You have to restrict travel and test travelers, monitor for new outbreaks from irregular travel, and export the tools and techniques to wipe it out elsewhere.


---

As an aside, there are comments about "diseases don't have high mortality and transmissiblility".  That is the anthropic principle in action.

Diseases on non-extinct species don't have high mortality and transmissiblility.  We have cases of small populations of animals having 90%+ of their species wiped out by a disease.

In the case of a widespread animal, the disease needs high transmissibility, long latency and high lethality, because otherwise local animal populations die out, and then so does the disease (unless it has a carrier it doesn't kill; this is the domestic cat:songbird problem -- we are carriers for the domestic cat who doesn't get killed by it, so cat population can stay high despite songbirds becoming more rare).

Humans have bypassed that "long latency" requirement because of how much we travel.  A disease with a 20 day infection to death, high transmissibility, and high lethality, could wipe out 90%+ of humans on the planet pretty reliably.  The only defence we'd have is our brains (ie, change our behavior so it stops infecting us).









						Pathogen Resistance
					






					xkcd.com


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> As an aside, there are comments about "diseases don't have high mortality and transmissiblility".  That is the anthropomorphic principle in action.




Do you mean "anthropic principle"?



> Diseases on non-extinct species don't have high mortality and transmissiblility.




"High" is a relative term, and we are not particularly consistent at relating "high relative to what?"


----------



## NotAYakk

Yes.  Fixed.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NotAYakk said:


> Measles is more contagious than Covid-19.
> 
> It is "airborn" with an R0 of around 15.
> 
> Covid-19 is droplets, with an R0 of around 3.



My point was that the US is seeing a marked decline (@10 percentage points) in vaccination per capita against measles, and we’re under 50% with flu.  With numbers like those, we’re clearly not in the right mindset in the virus vs vaccine context.  We’ll have to do better than that _in general_ if we want a hypothetical Covid-19 vaccine to reduce its impact to background noise.


----------



## Zardnaar

tomBitonti said:


> I set the proportion of the population relative to the R0 value: 1/2 for R0 being 2, 2/3 for R0 being 3.
> 
> I'm aware that there is no evidence of lasting immunity.  If there is no lasting immunity, then what?  If there is neither lasting immunity, nor an effective treatment, nor a vaccine?  How many times could a person contract the virus before they succumb to it?  Is the end state here an eventual reduction to only persons inherently resistant to the virus?
> 
> Be safe, be well,
> Tom Bitonti




 It means we're back to pre vaccine days. 

 At best you can wipe it out but if it's recurring it's my bad, worse, awful scenario.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> This needs repetition:  *We currently do not have evidence that exposure gives any lasting immunity to this disease! * There are many in the coronavirus family that do not produce lasting immunity though exposure. So, we cannot expect it here - hope is not a strategy.




And a single recent study showed @8% of patients do not form antibodies to Covid-19 at all.  If further research proves they’re right, that would translate into 20m+ people in the USA and EU _each_ presumably lacking immunity even after exposure.


----------



## NotAYakk

I found my prediction post:


NotAYakk said:


> Time travel back two weeks and see if it would be all hype then.
> 
> On Mar 14 there where 75k cases outside china.  Today there are more than 100k cases in the USA.
> 
> It sure seems plausible that in 2 weeks, death counts in the USA will be similar to death counts worldwide, outside of china, today, plus 33%ish.
> 
> As a ballpark number.  So 27k-3k, plus 33% is a plausible 32,000 dead in the USA.  Now this is just a plausible one; my point is going from 75k diagnosed cases to 25k dead in 2 weeks is *typical*.



So we finally hit 25,000 officially dead in USA.  March 28 to April 14; it took 2 weeks and 2 days.

Now, if we assume NYC was undercounting Covid19 dead by 50-200 for a week, that would mean the USA actually hit it 1-3 days earlier.

Still, not bad for a nearly model-free prediction.

The good news: apparently 90% of US citizens in "distancing" states are listening to advice.  This is higher than initial models assumed, so the Covid-19 US epidemic will shrink faster than the initial models predicted.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Re: tracking.

Assuming we don’t succeed in developing a vaccine or treatment in the near future or ever, even the USA will eventually adopt some form of nearly universal monitoring.

I mentioned the path the government would take, but haven’t touched on the most likely path: economics.  Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand” will surely shove any capitalist country- ours included- in that direction.

Why?

The obvious answer is that shutdowns are incredibly damaging to local, state, national and the global economies.  They not only grind things to a halt, they wreck the accuracy of future plans.

A subtler but no less real driver will be the pressure from insurance provides and health care professionals.  Whether you get private or public insurance, those providers will doubtless either jack up your rates or outright limit/deny coverage to those who don’t submit to some kind of tracking.

You might even be denied employment, access to certain businesses, public spaces or buildings.


----------



## NotAYakk

Because I find this completely insane, Sweden:









						Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




Covid-19 continues to take the weekend off in Sweden.  This week it also took a break on Easter Monday!

106 daily deaths april 9,
77 daily deaths april 10, 
17 daily deaths april 11
12 daily deaths april 12
20 daily deaths april 13
117 daily deaths (as yet!  Day not over!) today.

Same thing happened the last 2 weekends.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Re: tracking.
> 
> Assuming we don’t succeed in developing a vaccine or treatment in the near future or ever, even the USA will eventually adopt some form of nearly universal monitoring.
> 
> I mentioned the path the government would take, but haven’t touched on the most likely path: economics.  Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand” will surely shove any capitalist country- ours included- in that direction.
> 
> Why?
> 
> The obvious answer is that shutdowns are incredibly damaging to local, state, national and the global economies.  They not only grind things to a halt, they wreck the accuracy of future plans.
> 
> A subtler but no less real driver will be the pressure from insurance provides and health care professionals.  Whether you get private or public insurance, those providers will doubtless either jack up your rates or outright limit/deny coverage to those who don’t submit to some kind of tracking.
> 
> You might even be denied employment, access to certain businesses, public spaces or buildings.




 Some countries will have to do the herd thing but there's no real payoff.

 Money's going to be tight, depressed and all. Probably more survival of the fittest with massive intervention in the economy. 

Who gets to work and where could become a thing.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> Because I find this completely insane, Sweden:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19 continues to take the weekend off in Sweden.  This week it also took a break on Easter Monday!
> 
> 106 daily deaths april 9,
> 77 daily deaths april 10,
> 17 daily deaths april 11
> 12 daily deaths april 12
> 20 daily deaths april 13
> 117 daily deaths (as yet!  Day not over!) today.
> 
> Same thing happened the last 2 weekends.





 Posted that a few days ago. Per capita Sweden is doing worse than the US. 

Overconfident in their health system and culture.


----------



## Morrus

It looks like on Thursday we’re going to told the UK is getting another 3 weeks of lockdown. There’s a bit of a scandal right now because only hospital deaths are being reported and there are thousands and thousands of care homes with deaths which are not included in the figures. So the death rate is likely much higher than reported.

Still a lot of difficulty getting testing kits. Basically hardly anybody - even front line health workers - is being tested.

Boris is out of hospital and resting at Chequers but he’s not back at work yet. Dominic Raab is still in charge.


----------



## FrozenNorth

FrogReaver said:


> what makes you think US vs Europe was a bad comparison?



The fact that you didn't compare to Europe, you compared it to 5 countries in Europe and just “happened” to include the two countries that were the hardest hit.

Guess what?  Compared to Italy, Spain and the US, my country is also doing pretty well.  I should break out the champagne!


----------



## Istbor

Morrus said:


> It looks like on Thursday we’re going to told the UK is getting another 3 weeks of lockdown. There’s a bit of a scandal right now because only hospital deaths are being reported and there are thousands and thousands of care homes with deaths which are not included in the figures. So the death rate is likely much higher than reported.
> 
> Still a lot of difficulty getting testing kits. Basically hardly anybody - even front line health workers - is being tested.
> 
> Boris is out of hospital and resting at Chequers but he’s not back at work yet. Dominic Raab is still in charge.



I wonder about the reporting as well here. How many are we missing? I don't want to hear the deaths, other than to demonstrate, especially to hold outs among the country, that this is serious and that we need to fight it together to prevent more unnecessary death.


----------



## Zardnaar

Morrus said:


> It looks like on Thursday we’re going to told the UK is getting another 3 weeks of lockdown. There’s a bit of a scandal right now because only hospital deaths are being reported and there are thousands and thousands of care homes with deaths which are not included in the figures. So the death rate is likely much higher than reported.
> 
> Still a lot of difficulty getting testing kits. Basically hardly anybody - even front line health workers - is being tested.




 Crazy. We're not doing a massive amount but per capita it's decent. 

 UK was one of the worst hit outside Italy/Spain. 

I suspect numbers are higher in more than a few placeds due to outright cooked numbers or lacking the systems to accurately record it  vs undercounting. 

 West Europe might have the highest numbers due to the relative effectiveness of counting and honestly presenting the numbers. 

 Ecudor for example was sounding terrible. 

Government here assumed they've missed a few but there hasn't been a run on ICU beds. 

 Lots of talk about getting out of lockdown and post lockdown recovery. 

 Realistically I'm expecting lockdown to be extended by two weeks with a gradual reduction once new cases hit 0.

 They've also done a best case, worst case scenario economically. 13-28% unemployment, Great Depression I think we had 15%.


----------



## FrogReaver

FrozenNorth said:


> The fact that you didn't compare to Europe, you compared it to 5 countries in Europe and just “happened” to include the two countries that were the hardest hit.
> 
> Guess what?  Compared to Italy, Spain and the US, my country is also doing pretty well.  I should break out the champagne!




and the one country that was one of the least hardest hit.


----------



## FrogReaver

FrozenNorth said:


> The fact that you didn't compare to Europe, you compared it to 5 countries in Europe and just “happened” to include the two countries that were the hardest hit.
> 
> Guess what?  Compared to Italy, Spain and the US, my country is also doing pretty well.  I should break out the champagne!




i think the issue you have is the numbers I presented don’t align with the narrative you want to believe.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> and the one country that was one of the least hardest hit.




And that's supposed to make us think that the statistics all just work out?  

Look, it wasn't a well formed comparison.  The less of a big deal you make trying to defend it, the better you end up.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> And that's supposed to make us think that the statistics all just work out?
> 
> Look, it wasn't a well formed comparison.  The less of a big deal you make trying to defend it, the better you end up.




best comparison presented on here as of yet.


----------



## Morrus

FrogReaver said:


> i think the issue you have is the numbers I presented don’t align with the narrative you want to believe.



And it starts to get acrimonious...

Let’s nip that in the bud right now. We’re all in this together.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Sigh. I thought Canada would have learned this from the rest of the world before it happened there too:









						Canadian care homes become coronavirus hotspots
					

Health officials say nearly half of all known coronavirus deaths in Canada are linked to care homes.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Sigh. I thought Canada would have learned this from the rest of the world before it happened there too:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canadian care homes become coronavirus hotspots
> 
> 
> Health officials say nearly half of all known coronavirus deaths in Canada are linked to care homes.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com




 Kept it out of most of them so far.

But








						Coronavirus: Inside Burwood Hospital's Covid-19 ward
					

This place has witnessed six deaths since the day 20 elderly dementia patients arrived. The outlook is bleak for the remaining patients.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> Kept it out of most of them so far.
> 
> But
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: Inside Burwood Hospital's Covid-19 ward
> 
> 
> This place has witnessed six deaths since the day 20 elderly dementia patients arrived. The outlook is bleak for the remaining patients.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz




Wow. And the ward is named GG? That is dark...


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

And for any fans of the San Francisco 49ers, or live in that area, this is a scary "what if" story:









						Did the 49ers' Super Bowl loss save lives in San Francisco?
					

A Wall Street Journal report indicates that the lack of a Super Bowl victory parade may have slowed the spread of coronavirus in San Francisco.




					sports.yahoo.com
				




Can you imagine the potential explosion of cases California could have had if SF had won the Superbowl and had that victory parade?


----------



## Zardnaar

Istbor said:


> Wow. And the ward is named GG? That is dark...




 It's a story that's gonna be repeated around the world.


----------



## tomBitonti

From: US may have to endure social distancing until 2022 if no vaccine is quickly found, scientists predict

"Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available," they wrote in their report. 
"Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024."
Another important factor: Whether people become immune to the new coronavirus after they have been infected. That's not yet known.”

The questions becomes, how to enable folks to continue working while social distancing, and what economic shifts would be necessary?

Also, US just stopped (hopefully just paused) WHO funding. 

Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## NotAYakk

Someone must be looking for WHO to blame.


----------



## Garthanos

We have people with no clue about science in charge who cut funding and fired 700 scientists who were in charge of pandemic response as spite politics .... not quite as bad







Hussar said:


> Oh, it's bloody insane. See, Japan doesn't actually have a CDC. As in a separate body, funded by the government, staffed by scientists whose job it is to combat diseases. No, instead, Japan has bureaucrats in charge of science, with little or no actual science background, and often responsible to their political parties.
> 
> Oh, yeah, it really inspires confidence in the government's handling of things when you flat out KNOW that the people making all the decisions actually have zero science background.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

tomBitonti said:


> The questions becomes, how to enable folks to continue working while social distancing, and what economic shifts would be necessary?
> 
> Be safe, be well,
> Tom Bitonti




In other discussions over the years, I made the observation that there’s a lot of fiction that is set in semi-utopian societies- sometimes they’re even post-scarcity.

You never see fiction set in the transition from what we have now to the societies they posit.

Over the past 20 years, we’ve been seeing the rise of technology that would seem to point in the directions the futurists are predicting.  In 2012, a robotics company unveiled a prototype modular manufacturing robot that could do 200 different tasks, for the same projected 5 year cost as an Indonesian factory worker. 

We’re seeing bigger, longer tests of autonomous automobiles hit the road.

On the computing side, AI programs have gotten to be 60% as good at diagnosing illnesses as actual MDs, according to a couple of studies,

And those companies surely weren’t the only ones with projects like that in the works.

So my guess is we’re going to see the acceleration of technology eliminating the need to work in centralized locations  AND outright eliminating jobs.  IOW, I really think we’re at the dawn of that transitional period nobody ever talks about, and Covid-19 is the catalyst.


----------



## ad_hoc

> *26945 new cases* and *2407 new deaths* in *the United States
> 
> 
> New York City *today has reported *3,778 additional deaths* that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the *death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” *or an equivalent" [source]. We will add these to the New York State total as soon as it is determined whether the historical distribution can be obtained




USA just had its highest death toll today by 400 with 2407 deaths.

3778 additional deaths are thought to be attributed to COVID 19 in New York which haven't been part of the tally so far.


----------



## The Green Hermit

My county finally has enough test kits that anybody showing symptoms can schedule a test at the weekly drive-thru sites. First responders, people that work in a hospital, and those in the at-risk categories still get priority, though, of course.

Of course, part of this excess of kits may be because we have no confirmed cases yet -- except for the guy with a home address here, even though he has been out of state for months. We only count him, because the state tells us we have to, even if he is STILL out of state.


----------



## tomBitonti

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In other discussions over the years, I made the observation that there’s a lot of fiction that is set in semi-utopian societies- sometimes they’re even post-scarcity.
> 
> You never see fiction set in the transition from what we have now to the societies they posit.
> 
> Over the past 20 years, we’ve been seeing the rise of technology that would seem to point in the directions the futurists are predicting.  In 2012, a robotics company unveiled a prototype modular manufacturing robot that could do 200 different tasks, for the same projected 5 year cost as an Indonesian factory worker.
> 
> We’re seeing bigger, longer tests of autonomous automobiles hit the road.
> 
> On the computing side, AI programs have gotten to be 60% as good at diagnosing illnesses as actual MDs, according to a couple of studies,
> 
> And those companies surely weren’t the only ones with projects like that in the works.
> 
> So my guess is we’re going to see the acceleration of technology eliminating the need to work in centralized locations  AND outright eliminating jobs.  IOW, I really think we’re at the dawn of that transitional period nobody ever talks about, and Covid-19 is the catalyst.




This seems likely.  I'll have to think through what I've read to tell which have depicted transitions which aren't completely catastrophic (e.g., Lucifer's Hammer describes a transition, but one which is a total catastrophe).

Maybe history is a reasonable guide?   Any of a number of technologies as well as natural events were very disruptive and caused massive economic shifts.  Is there a difference in how quickly the transition will play out?

If Covid-19 is the catalyst for a transition, we should expect large disruptions as workers are shifted from obsolete areas to new necessary areas.  There remains a big unknown, which is how to do work which requires interaction.  How does one get a hair cut?  Or do maid service?  What happens to workers in worker-dense industries such as poultry or pork processing?

And, there seems to be an even greater trend towards inequality.  Social distancing is much harder for folks who have poor connectivity (the digital divide).  And I imagine Covid-19 outcomes are much better for folks who can afford better health care.  I can imagine the poorer segment of society being left to whether the virus as best they can, with some surviving, and others not.

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

It doesn't really go into the social or economic ramifications, but here's an article that discusses some modeling of future Covid-19 outbreaks as it relates to immunity (or lack thereof).








						New model looks at what might happen if SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay
					

If it’s like related viruses, it could cause seasonal outbreaks for years.




					arstechnica.com
				



The "worst case" implications are not especially rosy.


----------



## Azzy

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In other discussions over the years, I made the observation that there’s a lot of fiction that is set in semi-utopian societies- sometimes they’re even post-scarcity.
> 
> You never see fiction set in the transition from what we have now to the societies they posit.




Star Trek Deep Space nine touched on this with the Bell Riots.



> Over the past 20 years, we’ve been seeing the rise of technology that would seem to point in the directions the futurists are predicting.  In 2012, a robotics company unveiled a prototype modular manufacturing robot that could do 200 different tasks, for the same projected 5 year cost as an Indonesian factory worker.
> 
> We’re seeing bigger, longer tests of autonomous automobiles hit the road.
> 
> On the computing side, AI programs have gotten to be 60% as good at diagnosing illnesses as actual MDs, according to a couple of studies,
> 
> And those companies surely weren’t the only ones with projects like that in the works.
> 
> So my guess is we’re going to see the acceleration of technology eliminating the need to work in centralized locations  AND outright eliminating jobs.  IOW, I really think we’re at the dawn of that transitional period nobody ever talks about, and Covid-19 is the catalyst.




Universal basic income would have to happen at that point.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Azzy said:


> Universal basic income would have to happen at that point.




That’s an idea that will see a lot of pushback.

I’ve had discussions about UBI with some educated people.  Even when I pointed out a version for the USA (designed by economists) that would eliminate whole agencies, shrinking the federal government, while simultaneously being more efficient and help people more than our current system does, they still raised philosophical objections.  When I countered that limited real-world tests of that version of UBI had empirical results contrary to their philosophies’ predictions, they still said they wouldn’t support it.

So I suspect that the USA won’t adopt UBI unless & until there’s no other option.  I predict I’ll be dead by then, and longevity is a family trait from both of my parents
 lineages.


----------



## Zardnaar

tomBitonti said:


> This seems likely.  I'll have to think through what I've read to tell which have depicted transitions which aren't completely catastrophic (e.g., Lucifer's Hammer describes a transition, but one which is a total catastrophe).
> 
> Maybe history is a reasonable guide?   Any of a number of technologies as well as natural events were very disruptive and caused massive economic shifts.  Is there a difference in how quickly the transition will play out?
> 
> If Covid-19 is the catalyst for a transition, we should expect large disruptions as workers are shifted from obsolete areas to new necessary areas.  There remains a big unknown, which is how to do work which requires interaction.  How does one get a hair cut?  Or do maid service?  What happens to workers in worker-dense industries such as poultry or pork processing?
> 
> And, there seems to be an even greater trend towards inequality.  Social distancing is much harder for folks who have poor connectivity (the digital divide).  And I imagine Covid-19 outcomes are much better for folks who can afford better health care.  I can imagine the poorer segment of society being left to whether the virus as best they can, with some surviving, and others not.
> 
> Be Safe, Be Well,
> Tom Bitonti




 They haven't invented a machine yet that can do knife work like a human.







Dannyalcatraz said:


> That’s an idea that will see a lot of pushback.
> 
> I’ve had discussions about UBI with some educated people.  Even when I pointed out a version for the USA (designed by economists) that would eliminate whole agencies, shrinking the federal government, while simultaneously being more efficient and help people more than our current system does, they still raised philosophical objections.  When I countered that limited real-world tests of that version of UBI had empirical results contrary to their philosophies’ predictions, they still said they wouldn’t support it.
> 
> So I suspect that the USA won’t adopt UBI unless & until there’s no other option.  I predict I’ll be dead by then, and longevity is a family trait from both of my parents
> lineages.




 I'm not opposed to the concept but the price tag was unaffordable. No amount of tax hikes would cover it. 

 It also wasn't much, less than you get here on a pension. Similar to the base rate for unemployment.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> I'm not opposed to the concept but the price tag was unaffordable. No amount of tax hikes would cover it.




Depends on where you are.  If your country’s safety net is relatively straightforward, a UBI system might be more trouble than it’s worth in the short run.

The system proposed for the USA, otoh, eliminated or reduced nearly every agency and program associated with our labyrinthine “welfare state”, including numerous investigative and judicial oversight branches.  That prunes thousands of pages of legal code and regulations down to the minimum needed to determine everyone got the right sized check- fewer loopholes, fewer ways to chest, less need for investigation, enforcement and court cases.   Even without raising taxes, reducing the beaurocracy by that much was calculated to result in a net increase in benefit to the recipients.

Of course, that UBI proposal had its own acknowledged flaws.  By reducing EVERYTHING- SocSec, Medicare, Medicaid, WIC, etc. to a monthly check, you’re then depending on the recipients to make good decisions allocating that cash to necessities, not bread & circuses.  If they don’t, you have a subset of citizens once again falling prey to the societal ills all those agencies were ostensibly created to combat.

Since we don’t live in an idealized world, a UBI program like the one proposed probably wouldn’t work.  You’d still need some kind of institutional safety net, even if it’s skeletal in comparison to the current one.  That + UBI = tax hike and/or other budget cuts.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Depends on where you are.  If your country’s safety net is relatively straightforward, a UBI system might be more trouble than it’s worth in the short run.
> 
> The system proposed for the USA, otoh, eliminated or reduced nearly every agency and program associated with our labyrinthine “welfare state”, including numerous investigative and judicial oversight branches.  That prunes thousands of pages of legal code and regulations down to the minimum needed to determine everyone got the right sized check- fewer loopholes, fewer ways to chest, less need for investigation, enforcement and court cases.   Even without raising taxes, reducing the beaurocracy by that much was calculated to result in a net increase in benefit to the recipients.
> 
> Of course, that UBI proposal had its own acknowledged flaws.  By reducing EVERYTHING- SocSec, Medicare, Medicaid, WIC, etc. to a monthly check, you’re then depending on the recipients to make good decisions allocating that cash to necessities, not bread & circuses.  If they don’t, you have a subset of citizens once again falling prey to the societal ills all those agencies were ostensibly created to combat.
> 
> Since we don’t live in an idealized world, a UBI program like the one proposed probably wouldn’t work.  You’d still need some kind of institutional safety net, even if it’s skeletal in comparison to the current one.  That + UBI = tax hike and/or other budget cuts.




 The UBI would barely cover health insurance. 

 I lean more towards 

Germany/Scandinavia/NZ approach.

 Some sort of FDR new new deal gonna be needed soon. I thought our numbers look bad, they're not god awful.

 Debt to GDP ratio
NZ 30%
USA 107%

Think Japan's over 200%.


----------



## MarkB

tomBitonti said:


> How does one get a hair cut?



Back in mid-March when the UK restrictions were first introduced, I was already overdue for a haircut and knew I wasn't likely to get one in the next few months, so I picked up a cordless hair clipper when I did my first essentials shopping run.

Finally plucked up the nerve to use it over Easter weekend, and the results weren't terrible. A bit uneven at the back, but I wouldn't be ashamed to go out in public with it, not that that's likely anytime soon.


----------



## FrozenNorth

tomBitonti said:


> Also, US just stopped (hopefully just paused) WHO funding.



That is monstrous.


----------



## FrozenNorth

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Depends on where you are.  If your country’s safety net is relatively straightforward, a UBI system might be more trouble than it’s worth in the short run.
> 
> The system proposed for the USA, otoh, eliminated or reduced nearly every agency and program associated with our labyrinthine “welfare state”, including numerous investigative and judicial oversight branches.  That prunes thousands of pages of legal code and regulations down to the minimum needed to determine everyone got the right sized check- fewer loopholes, fewer ways to chest, less need for investigation, enforcement and court cases.   Even without raising taxes, reducing the beaurocracy by that much was calculated to result in a net increase in benefit to the recipients.



I think you just hit upon why it would never be adopted.  If it does what it is supposed to do, people might ask whether the tax system could also be overhauled to be simpler, fairer and with fewer loopholes...and that just won’t do!


----------



## Umbran

*Mod Note:*

Folks, watch the politics please.  The _political forces_ against UBI really isn't an appropriate subject matter.


----------



## NotAYakk

Power flows from the barrel of a gun.

Well, sort of.  The barrel of a gun is useless unless you are pointing it at people, and those people are useful.

People being useful can always choose to die rather than consent.  So it is the consent of the useful people that is power, and you can use a gun to attempt to get it.

So power flows from the consent of useful people.

This (one of the reasons) why democracy works (regardless of it being "good", I'm saying "works"); power aligns with electoral power, so you reduce the difference between nominal power and actual power.  This helps prevent the structural forcing of revolution, or inefficient use of force to compel consent of the power of the people.

But in those "utopian" societies, people are no longer useful.  They don't produce anything that a hypothetical dictator (individual or organization) wants or needs.  If they have guns pointed at them, simply wiping them out doesn't *hurt* the people with the guns (materially); in fact, as they seem to _economically_ be little but a drain on the productivity of the society involved, societies that do eliminate their surplus population end up with more "effective" economies.  If that "effective" economy can compete with other economies and defeat, swallow or (memically) infect them, you run into a problem where this system grows, while ones that respect human rights shrink and lose.

In comparison, today when you point your guns at your people and you do wipe them out today, you end up with an economy that is destroyed.  The people produce the wealth, so the consent of the people is the source of power.

So long as human rights hold, UBI solves the over-productivity "problem", but it misaligns both economic and political power with actual power.  So a revolution is only being held at bay by the stability of society, and human-rights-less political system is in a more stable configuration...

---

Now, we can turn this on its head.  For most of human history, power came from food.  Peasants where valuable because they grew food.  A few specialists didn't grow food, and produced something else.  Today, 99% of the population of western economies is not food related.  To someone in the food-dominated era this would be unbelievable.

So maybe we can transition to *some other* kind of value produced by people, and devalue everything machine produced to being trivial in cost.

(I think I stayed clear of political forces here?  I didn't place judgement on any actors.  I tried to just talk about power...)


----------



## UngainlyTitan

@NotAYakk I am afraid I completely disagree with you. Every one that exists in an economy contributes to that economy. They consume goods and services. The only ones that do not contribute are  people that live completely off grid. Ones that grow their own food and make their clothes and houses from stuff they produce themselves. 
The wealthy elite are people and there is only so much room for them. Reduce the number of people in the economy and there is less room at the top. 
A widget factory in Indonesia, that is totally automated is no use unless there are people to buy the product. 
The untimate underpinning of human government is legitimacy. 
Louis the XVI could not clear the streets of Paris with a "whiff of grapeshot" because that was an order he could issue but could not be sure it would be obeyed. Also, it would not solve his underlying problem, the monarchy was bankrupt.  
Napoleon could issue that order because he knew the order would be obeyed, that the people of France were sick of the instability and the tax problem had been solved years before by the revolution.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> So maybe we can transition to *some other* kind of value produced by people, and devalue everything machine produced to being trivial in cost.




Anyone here watch, _The Orville_?  It is Seth McFarlane's Star Trek, and is awesome, and possibly the most... Trekky Trek since TNG.  In it, Earth has become a largely utopian, post-scarcity society.  And, a couple times they reference that, with the invention of matter synthesis and nigh-infinite energy supplies, the concept of normal money for goods produced ceased to make any sense.

But they also note that, "...human ambition didn't vanish.  The only thing that changed is how we quantify wealth.  People still want to be rich, but now being rich means being the best at what you do."

Oh, here's a clip of one discussion of it...


----------



## cmad1977

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In other discussions over the years, I made the observation that there’s a lot of fiction that is set in semi-utopian societies- sometimes they’re even post-scarcity.
> 
> You never see fiction set in the transition from what we have now to the societies they posit.
> 
> Over the past 20 years, we’ve been seeing the rise of technology that would seem to point in the directions the futurists are predicting. In 2012, a robotics company unveiled a prototype modular manufacturing robot that could do 200 different tasks, for the same projected 5 year cost as an Indonesian factory worker.
> 
> We’re seeing bigger, longer tests of autonomous automobiles hit the road.
> 
> On the computing side, AI programs have gotten to be 60% as good at diagnosing illnesses as actual MDs, according to a couple of studies,
> 
> And those companies surely weren’t the only ones with projects like that in the works.
> 
> So my guess is we’re going to see the acceleration of technology eliminating the need to work in centralized locations AND outright eliminating jobs. IOW, I really think we’re at the dawn of that transitional period nobody ever talks about, and Covid-19 is the catalyst.




Just look at Amazon warehouses. Vastly more automated than 10 years ago. 
My friend literally had a rover type robot deliver his order a couple months ago. He walked up to it, used his phone to unlock the box, took his order out and the robot rolled off to do its next task. 
It was a cool video. 
The worst part of all this isn’t the fact that automation is obviously the future for a wide variety of businesses. It’a that some people don’t want to think about the massive effect this has on society and refuse to plan for it.


----------



## Umbran

cmad1977 said:


> The worst part of all this isn’t the fact that automation is obviously the future for a wide variety of businesses. It’a that some people don’t want to think about the massive effect this has on society and refuse to plan for it.




Well, that's kind of assuming people _understand_ the ramifications of change, and can plan for it effectively.

I am not at all sure that's a good assumption.  Humans to date have not been remarkable in our ability to predict the effects of economic change in the long term.


----------



## UngainlyTitan

Umbran said:


> Anyone here watch, _The Orville_?  It is Seth McFarlane's Star Trek, and is awesome, and possibly the most... Trekky Trek since TNG.  In it, Earth has become a largely utopian, post-scarcity society.  And, a couple times they reference that, with the invention of matter synthesis and nigh-infinite energy supplies, the concept of normal money for goods produced ceased to make any sense.
> 
> But they also note that, "...human ambition didn't vanish.  The only thing that changed is how we quantify wealth.  People still want to be rich, but now being rich means being the best at what you do."
> 
> Oh, here's a clip of one discussion of it...



I pretty much agree on the underlying take. Take money as we understand it out of the equation in a post scarcity society and people will still divide on status markers. Though in my view it is as likely to be "be good as extemporising Haikus" and "being the best is some field"


----------



## noko

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Depends on where you are.  If your country’s safety net is relatively straightforward, a UBI system might be more trouble than it’s worth in the short run.
> 
> The system proposed for the USA, otoh, eliminated or reduced nearly every agency and program associated with our labyrinthine “welfare state”, including numerous investigative and judicial oversight branches.  That prunes thousands of pages of legal code and regulations down to the minimum needed to determine everyone got the right sized check- fewer loopholes, fewer ways to chest, less need for investigation, enforcement and court cases.   Even without raising taxes, reducing the beaurocracy by that much was calculated to result in a net increase in benefit to the recipients.
> 
> Of course, that UBI proposal had its own acknowledged flaws.  By reducing EVERYTHING- SocSec, Medicare, Medicaid, WIC, etc. to a monthly check, you’re then depending on the recipients to make good decisions allocating that cash to necessities, not bread & circuses.  If they don’t, you have a subset of citizens once again falling prey to the societal ills all those agencies were ostensibly created to combat.
> 
> Since we don’t live in an idealized world, a UBI program like the one proposed probably wouldn’t work.  You’d still need some kind of institutional safety net, even if it’s skeletal in comparison to the current one.  That + UBI = tax hike and/or other budget cuts.



I think you would end up with an enormous black market.


----------



## Umbran

ardoughter said:


> Though in my view it is as likely to be "be good as extemporising Haikus" and "being the best is some field"




Extemporising haikus _is_ a field.  Do not discount arts.  Some of our most revered (high-reputation) people _today_ are artists, and there's no reason for that to stop in such a system.


----------



## UngainlyTitan

Umbran said:


> Extemporising haikus _is_ a field.  Do not discount arts.  Some of our most revered (high-reputation) people _today_ are artists, and there's no reason for that to stop in such a system.



yes, ok, you got me there but my point is that it most likely will be a thing that everyone will be expected to have some skill at, dancing, playing the violin, or haikus that one will have to be good at along with what ever you do. 
Excelling in Physics or whatever may not have the same cachet.


----------



## Deset Gled

FrozenNorth said:


> That is monstrous.




Yeah, I can't even begin to understand the logic behind that.

The US (or one unnamed individual) disabled our pandemic response team in 2018 as a budget cut.  Countless FEMA positions have been left unfulfilled.  Now the US is basically holding WHO funding hostage.

I can't really say too much more without breaking the politics rule, but holy moley we are doing some terrible long term planning.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Anyone here watch, _The Orville_?  It is Seth McFarlane's Star Trek, and is awesome, and possibly the most... Trekky Trek since TNG.  In it, Earth has become a largely utopian, post-scarcity society.  And, a couple times they reference that, with the invention of matter synthesis and nigh-infinite energy supplies, the concept of normal money for goods produced ceased to make any sense.
> 
> But they also note that, "...human ambition didn't vanish.  The only thing that changed is how we quantify wealth.  People still want to be rich, but now being rich means being the best at what you do."
> 
> Oh, here's a clip of one discussion of it...



I loved that show.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> Yeah, I can't even begin to understand the logic behind that.
> 
> The US (or one unnamed individual) disabled our pandemic response team in 2018 as a budget cut.  Countless FEMA positions have been left unfulfilled.  Now the US is basically holding WHO funding hostage.
> 
> I can't really say too much more without breaking the politics rule, but holy moley we are doing some terrible long term planning.



I will say that- much like what we found out with Hurricane Katrina- the blame game in the US Covid-19 response is like a large onion with many layers.  The good & bad of it go back many years, and (freely mixing my metaphors) the ball was dropped multiple times...by people across the political spectrum.  A prior leader, having used our reserves of masks, etc. as intended nonetheless left office without replenishing that reserve, even though he had ample opportunity.  For all the good he did, that was boneheaded.

But just like the problem is bipartisan, I really think the solutions will be too.  or more accurately, I _hope_ it will.


----------



## ad_hoc

...


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I will say that- much like what we found out with Hurricane Katrina- the blame game in the US Covid-19 response is like a large onion with many layers.  The good & bad of it go back many years, and (freely mixing my metaphors) the ball was dropped multiple times...by people across the political spectrum.  A prior leader, having used our reserves of masks, etc. as intended nonetheless left office without replenishing that reserve, even though he had ample opportunity.  For all the good he did, that was boneheaded.
> 
> But just like the problem is bipartisan, I really think the solutions will be too.  or more accurately, I _hope_ it will.




Obviously, no political party is responsible for COVID19.  The disease doesn't have a political affiliation, no one can predict the future, and things like long term emergency stocking are much more complicated discussions than we can go into here. 

But there is absolutely nothing bipartisan about the things I mentioned above.  No amount of whataboutism justifies cutting WHO funding during a pandemic.


----------



## tomBitonti

MarkB said:


> Back in mid-March when the UK restrictions were first introduced, I was already overdue for a haircut and knew I wasn't likely to get one in the next few months, so I picked up a cordless hair clipper when I did my first essentials shopping run.
> 
> Finally plucked up the nerve to use it over Easter weekend, and the results weren't terrible. A bit uneven at the back, but I wouldn't be ashamed to go out in public with it, not that that's likely anytime soon.



Yeah, haircuts were perhaps not the best example.  I was given hair cuts at home when I was young, and know at least one set of friends which are cutting their own hair for now.
But generally, personal services of this sort will be difficult to provide while maintaining social distancing.  Anyone providing such a service has a would be strong vector for transmitting the virus.
Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Deset Gled

tomBitonti said:


> Yeah, haircuts were perhaps not the best example.  I was given hair cuts at home when I was young, and know at least one set of friends which are cutting their own hair for now.
> But generally, personal services of this sort will be difficult to provide while maintaining social distancing.  Anyone providing such a service has a "high interaction cross section" for transmitting the virus.




Dental care is the example that I'm personally living right now.  I had a procedure scheduled that was cancelled because of the outbreak.  My dentist is currently shut down and is only doing work for dental "emergencies".  I don't have an emergency right now, but I certainly will in the future if I don't get it taken care of eventually.


----------



## Mallus

Umbran said:


> But they also note that, "...human ambition didn't vanish.  The only thing that changed is how we quantify wealth.  People still want to be rich, but now being rich means being the best at what you do."



I kinda love the fact that it's Seth McFarlane who gives the clearest explanation of Star Trek economics (TNG-era and beyond, at least).


----------



## Istbor

tomBitonti said:


> Yeah, haircuts were perhaps not the best example.  I was given hair cuts at home when I was young, and know at least one set of friends which are cutting their own hair for now.
> But generally, personal services of this sort will be difficult to provide while maintaining social distancing.  Anyone providing such a service has a would be strong vector for transmitting the virus.
> Be Safe, Be Well,
> Tom Bitonti



On the note of the hair cut. What are the people who give them supposed to do? The person who does mine had just started doing so out of her new home. Reworked her basement into a licensed salon. Now, it serves no one. And her fiance, a co-owner of a couple of bars/breweries in town is likely facing similar issues. As even if they can do take out food and drink, no doubt the business is not the same. That is then a dual income household basically making nothing, or next to. 

With some unemployment sprinkled in with a grant or handout from the FED, that can keep them going for a little, but off and on for as long as 2022? I can't imagine having to do that. You would need different jobs that are deemed more essential and less likely to close down. It would not be a fun time in life.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That’s an idea that will see a lot of pushback.
> 
> I’ve had discussions about UBI with some educated people.  Even when I pointed out a version for the USA (designed by economists) that would eliminate whole agencies, shrinking the federal government, while simultaneously being more efficient and help people more than our current system does, they still raised philosophical objections.  When I countered that limited real-world tests of that version of UBI had empirical results contrary to their philosophies’ predictions, they still said they wouldn’t support it.
> 
> So I suspect that the USA won’t adopt UBI unless & until there’s no other option.  I predict I’ll be dead by then, and longevity is a family trait from both of my parents
> lineages.



The US is considering a new stimulus package: $2000/month/adult + $500/month/kid until a certain percentage of businesses have been opened back up.


----------



## MarkB

Deset Gled said:


> Dental care is the example that I'm personally living right now.  I had a procedure scheduled that was cancelled because of the outbreak.  My dentist is currently shut down and is only doing work for dental "emergencies".  I don't have an emergency right now, but I certainly will in the future if I don't get it taken care of eventually.



Yeah, amateur self hairdressing I can cope with, but self dentistry not so much.


----------



## Enevhar Aldarion

Deset Gled said:


> Obviously, no political party is responsible for COVID19. The disease doesn't have a political affiliation...




Not in the US, or other Western countries, but a certain political party/ideology in a certain country who suppressed and delayed and lied, and probably paid off the WHO leaders to do the same for them, about the initial outbreak and spread and severity is responsible for things being worse than they should have been.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> Obviously, no political party is responsible for COVID19.  The disease doesn't have a political affiliation, no one can predict the future, and things like long term emergency stocking are much more complicated discussions than we can go into here.
> 
> But there is absolutely nothing bipartisan about the things I mentioned above.  No amount of whataboutism justifies cutting WHO funding during a pandemic.



You’re missing my point.

I’m not engaging in whataboutism.  (BELIEVE me.)  I’m not forgiving The obvious flaws of our current government’s Covid-19 response.

I am simply pointing out that prior administrations also made some bad decisions that are contributing to the current crisis as well.  Failing to replenish the national reserve after depleting it fighting Ebola, HIN1, etc. _is_ a contributing exacerbating factor.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FWIW, if anyone tells you Covid-19 isn’t as dangerous as the seasonal flu...

Flu season lasts about 1/3 of the year.  Even though the seasonal flu can affect someone at any time, it is most active during Dec-March. 

If, arguendo, we assume ALL annual seasonal flu deaths occurred only during flu season, that means the worst year in the US saw @500 deaths per day.

In comparison, the current estimated peak for Covid-19 deaths per day is 2000+-.


----------



## NotAYakk

You don't need the people consuming goods and services in a fundamental way.


Dannyalcatraz said:


> FWIW, if anyone tells you Covid-19 isn’t as dangerous as the seasonal flu...
> 
> Flu season lasts about 1/3 of the year.  Even though the seasonal flu can affect someone at any time, it is most active during Dec-March.
> 
> If, arguendo, we assume ALL annual seasonal flu deaths occurred only during flu season, that means the worst year in the US saw @500 deaths per day.
> 
> In comparison, the current estimated peak for Covid-19 deaths per day is 2000+-.



And that is with massive mitigation measures.

The Covid-19 death rate would be much, much higher without those measures.

It isn't a coincidence that the death rate stops climbing 2-4 weeks after massive mitigation measures are used.


----------



## Umbran

ardoughter said:


> yes, ok, you got me there but my point is that it most likely will be a thing that everyone will be expected to have some skill at, dancing, playing the violin, or haikus that one will have to be good at along with what ever you do.
> Excelling in Physics or whatever may not have the same cachet.




I am not entirely sure that I get what you mean.  It sounds like you mean the entire world will standardize on one thing - extemporaneous haiku, and that no other skills would matter.  If that's what you mean, I am pretty sure that's entirely not the case.

There are two things that we'd probably fall to - things that are _useful_ and things that are _entertaining_.  Be really good at what you do in either of those very broad categories, and you'd be "wealthy" in reputataion.   So, a great chef would have high reputation.  A great engineer would have it.  So would a great songwriter.


----------



## Umbran

Enevhar Aldarion said:


> Not in the US, or other Western countries, but a certain political party/ideology in a certain country ...




*Mod note:*
Dude.  Please.  We are not idiots. And this is not a place where trying to play games around the letter of the law is valid.

 I am done with repeated wagging of fingers.  Apparently, that's not enough.  You're done in this thread.

Anyone else wanna be a wiseacre, and hope the, "But I didn's say exaclty who..." will be a defense?  Just don't.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> I am not entirely sure that I get what you mean.  It sounds like you mean the entire world will standardize on one thing - extemporaneous haiku, and that no other skills would matter.  If that's what you mean, I am pretty sure that's entirely not the case.
> 
> There are two things that we'd probably fall to - things that are _useful_ and things that are _entertaining_.  Be really good at what you do in either of those very broad categories, and you'd be "wealthy" in reputataion.   So, a great chef would have high reputation.  A great engineer would have it.  So would a great songwriter.



Now, imagine a world where all of those skills are done more competently by a robot.

A robot can make better tasting food (like, literally -- let them look at a human making food or the result, and they make stuff that looks better and tastes better in any kind of "blind" taste test).  Similar for engineering and writing songs.

They can even be a personal assistant better -- find things for you to enjoy, organize your life, etc.

Different robots also provides better police services, better accounting oversight, wins at go and chess, can do ballet, etc.

Like literally the only thing that people do better is be meat bags of mostly water.

What more, those robots cost less to build and run than it does to feed a human, in terms of using crop land to grow either human food or energy feedstock for machines.

Now imagine you are a group of people who controls 75% of the wealth (resource rights) of a nation.  You own literally three quarters of the assets, land, etc.  What more, your economic system lets you spend those resources on buying out more rights.  Do you want to use your resources providing for humans who don't do anything useful for you, or do you want to use them for your own (and your family's) enjoyment?

I mean, a crystal palace on top of a snow covered mountain in Florida isn't going to build itself.

And your friend has a taller ice palace.  But, if you arrange the terms just right, you can claim the assets of another 5% of the nation in a mere 10 years through some sneaky contract work.

Sure there are homeless, but is it your responsibility to care for people who lost their social security number?

When the mass of people democratically seem to be about to decide to take your resources away, will you sit back, or are the police forces robots just rented from your firms already?


----------



## Umbran

Mallus said:


> I kinda love the fact that it's Seth McFarlane who gives the clearest explanation of Star Trek economics (TNG-era and beyond, at least).




He has the benefit of having the entirety of Trek history (and discussion of its economy) to derive it from.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

NotAYakk said:


> When the mass of people democratically seem to be about to decide to take your resources away, will you sit back, or are the police forces robots just rented from your firms already?



Given all the human failures you noted, the $64k question is _"How do the police robots feel about all this?"_


----------



## MarkB

Mallus said:


> I kinda love the fact that it's Seth McFarlane who gives the clearest explanation of Star Trek economics (TNG-era and beyond, at least).



It's not really much different than the "we work to better ourselves" explanation that Picard gives in First Contact.


----------



## UngainlyTitan

Umbran said:


> I am not entirely sure that I get what you mean.  It sounds like you mean the entire world will standardize on one thing - extemporaneous haiku, and that no other skills would matter.  If that's what you mean, I am pretty sure that's entirely not the case.
> 
> There are two things that we'd probably fall to - things that are _useful_ and things that are _entertaining_.  Be really good at what you do in either of those very broad categories, and you'd be "wealthy" in reputataion.   So, a great chef would have high reputation.  A great engineer would have it.  So would a great songwriter.



I am perhaps overstating one particular thing, it is more likely to be a suite of things. But not something one can make a living at. Something that also take some effort. A but like being a "gentleman" in the ninetieth century. There one had to be rich but that was not sufficient, one had to know how to dress for dinner, what fork to use, order your wine in French and understand classical phrases and allusions in conversation. 
I also think that there will be multiple cultures and they may have different standards.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Now, imagine a world where all of those skills are done more competently by a robot.




Except... they totally aren't.  Not in the show, not in our real world.  Some folks have this idea that robots will be better at things that entail human experience or creativity. I don't view that as a foregone conclusion. And, even if it is possible, we achieve effective post-scarcity long before that.  

And that's a big point.  The approach to post-scarcity is driven by simple profit motive... but that motive disappears once you've achieved the goal, by definition.  Today, you'd build a songwriting robot because it would free you from having to pay a songwriter.  But... post-scarcity, you already don't have to pay the songwriter.  There is no need for the robot to exist!


----------



## Umbran

MarkB said:


> It's not really much different than the "we work to better ourselves" explanation that Picard gives in First Contact.




I think we can look at youtube today, specifically during this pandemic, and realize that Picard was largely correct.

There's a notion that, if you give people a living for no work, they will sit back and... do nothing, produce nothing, learn nothing.  Surely, some will, but looking at artists whose work is applicable on social media, and you see a whole lot of artists continuing to make art and give it away for free, because their paid channels for expression are closed.  They just go on to create anyway.

Patrick Stewart starts reading Shakespeare's sonnets one a day, just because he thinks it's helpful - living the thing that Picard was talking about!  School musicians record their parts at home, and have them edited together.  John Krazinski starts up the "Some Good News" series on youtube, again, just because people can use good news right now.


----------



## UngainlyTitan

NotAYakk said:


> Now, imagine a world where all of those skills are done more competently by a robot.
> 
> A robot can make better tasting food (like, literally -- let them look at a human making food or the result, and they make stuff that looks better and tastes better in any kind of "blind" taste test).  Similar for engineering and writing songs.
> 
> They can even be a personal assistant better -- find things for you to enjoy, organize your life, etc.
> 
> Different robots also provides better police services, better accounting oversight, wins at go and chess, can do ballet, etc.
> 
> Like literally the only thing that people do better is be meat bags of mostly water.
> 
> What more, those robots cost less to build and run than it does to feed a human, in terms of using crop land to grow either human food or energy feedstock for machines.
> 
> Now imagine you are a group of people who controls 75% of the wealth (resource rights) of a nation.  You own literally three quarters of the assets, land, etc.  What more, your economic system lets you spend those resources on buying out more rights.  Do you want to use your resources providing for humans who don't do anything useful for you, or do you want to use them for your own (and your family's) enjoyment?
> 
> I mean, a crystal palace on top of a snow covered mountain in Florida isn't going to build itself.
> 
> And your friend has a taller ice palace.  But, if you arrange the terms just right, you can claim the assets of another 5% of the nation in a mere 10 years through some sneaky contract work.
> 
> Sure there are homeless, but is it your responsibility to care for people who lost their social security number?
> 
> When the mass of people democratically seem to be about to decide to take your resources away, will you sit back, or are the police forces robots just rented from your firms already?



There are many issues with the scenario above but the biggest is that the elite all control the same kind of assets and their wealth is interchangeable. in reality some people a the top have wealth that depends on feeding the masses. The Walton family that own Walmart for instance. Remove the masses and their wealth disappears. 
That is one issue.

Now, suppose that you have an initial population of 1 million and 75% of the wealth is owned by 10,000. 100 of that 10,000 owns 50%. Now remove the million and then what? Does the 100 of the new elite remove the 9,900 new poor? 100 is not a viable breeding population. If not, what happens when that 10k breeds out to a million with a similar wealth distribution as before the great cull.
One is only elite in the current order, remove or change that order and ones elite status might come into question.
This reminds of comments by players of MMO type games like World of Tanks  where people whine about matchmaking and how they would be better off if they were playing only against similarly skilled players never seeming to realise that if there are so few of this class of players that it would not be viable for the company to run a separate server for the elite and if they were only playing elite players they might not be as elite as they think.


----------



## NotAYakk

I didn't say it was long-term viable.  I simply placed power, declared incentives, and watched it all burn.

"Elites" have led their own society down a path that makes it burn many, many times in history.

The automation revolution is going to be interesting, because in past collapses the middle-class was required to keep the masses of productive people producing.

Ie 4 classes: Ruler, Middle, Worker and Under.  The Middle is defined as the class that enforces the Ruler's economic rules on the Worker, and the Underclass are the "undesirables" who don't produce wealth for the Ruler class.  Automation, in theory, can expand the Underclass to be everyone outside of the Ruler class.  Pacifying the underclass with goods is a decent short-term strategy, but in the medium term isn't stable.

We could in theory expand to "everyone is a Ruler-class, and robots form the Worker class, and no Middle class need exist."  That is the traditional utopia.


----------



## UngainlyTitan

In most cases where the elites have crashed their society, that has resulted in a wholesale replacement of the elite. Mostly be external invaders but occasionally by internal revolution.  Crashing their society was not part of the plan.

As for eliminating the underclass, that is not how humans work. If you have no-one below you, your not elite. You are now a pleb. There is a reason that a lot of revolutionary leaders come from the lower echelons of the elite.


----------



## Zardnaar

ardoughter said:


> There are many issues with the scenario above but the biggest is that the elite all control the same kind of assets and their wealth is interchangeable. in reality some people a the top have wealth that depends on feeding the masses. The Walton family that own Walmart for instance. Remove the masses and their wealth disappears.
> That is one issue.
> 
> Now, suppose that you have an initial population of 1 million and 75% of the wealth is owned by 10,000. 100 of that 10,000 owns 50%. Now remove the million and then what? Does the 100 of the new elite remove the 9,900 new poor? 100 is not a viable breeding population. If not, what happens when that 10k breeds out to a million with a similar wealth distribution as before the great cull.
> One is only elite in the current order, remove or change that order and ones elite status might come into question.
> This reminds of comments by players of MMO type games like World of Tanks  where people whine about matchmaking and how they would be better off if they were playing only against similarly skilled players never seeming to realise that if there are so few of this class of players that it would not be viable for the company to run a separate server for the elite and if they were only playing elite players they might not be as elite as they think.




 I used to play that game. When I joined an elite clan that was number 1 in the US server I got a heap of abuse. 

 Just loaded my clan gold and shot them. Our clan was getting around 20k gold per day.

 The pubbies would moan but there was a huge skill disparity.


----------



## ad_hoc

Remember this site with the projected deaths in the USA at 60k (now 69k)?









						France COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

France Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




They give a range of possible death rates that is very large and yet there are results that are still happening outside of that range.

France was predicted to have its highest death toll 11 days ago at 941.

Today was predicted to be 355 with a range of 129-929.

The actual total was 1438. 50% more than their highest guess.

1438 isn't just an anomaly brought about by a lag of reporting. This is the 6th day they've had above 1k deaths. The site only had 3 days total that had a range of deaths as high as 1k+.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> And that's a big point.  The approach to post-scarcity is driven by simple profit motive... but that motive disappears once you've achieved the goal, by definition.  Today, you'd build a songwriting robot because it would free you from having to pay a songwriter.  But... post-scarcity, you already don't have to pay the songwriter.  There is no need for the robot to exist!



I agree with this...

BUT...

There are reasons to create songwriting AIs beyond the motive of replacing living songwriters.  The most obvious one is to create tools to _assist_ living songwriters.

And of course, genies DON‘T go willingly back into bottles.  Even before we reach post-scarcity- asuming that we do, and that’s not a guarantee- creative professions will be endangered by automation as well.  Tools that CAN replace humans WILL.

Because music, art, and all of that is subjective, most of the audience won’t care whether something was produced by human hands, as long as they find it enjoyable.

Exhibit 1a- AI created music:


Exhibit 1b- Brian Eno’s _Reflection_, available in multiple formats including an app that generates the music infinitely:








						Brian Eno's next album does not end
					

Brian Eno's next album will be available as a generative app, allowing listeners to hear it as an endless, constantly changing stream of sound.




					www.factmag.com
				




Exhibit 2- Christian Seidler’s Matricism:






To explain- Christian Seidler created an evolution of pointilism in which the paint is applied in 3 dimensions.  Dots of colored paint are not just applied side to side on the canvas, but on top of each other.  It is very labor intensive, and he only did about 30 canvasses by hand.  With the help of the UT Austin robotics program (as I recall), he designed a machine which applies the paint for him.  While he still programs the machine on what to paint, there is no reason why an AI couldn’t do something “in his style” once it was taught to do so.


----------



## tomBitonti

ad_hoc said:


> Remember this site with the projected deaths in the USA at 60k (now 69k)?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> France COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
> 
> 
> France Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They give a range of possible death rates that is very large and yet there are results that are still happening outside of that range.
> 
> France was predicted to have its highest death toll 11 days ago at 941.
> 
> Today was predicted to be 355 with a range of 129-929.
> 
> The actual total was 1438. 50% more than their highest guess.
> 
> 1438 isn't just an anomaly brought about by a lag of reporting. This is the 6th day they've had above 1k deaths. The site only had 3 days total that had a range of deaths as high as 1k+.




I don't remember seeing projections on worldometer.  The projections were here:









						IHME | COVID-19 Projections
					

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.




					covid19.healthdata.org
				




Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Morrus

NotAYakk said:


> Now, imagine a world where all of those skills are done more competently by a robot.
> 
> A robot can make better tasting food (like, literally -- let them look at a human making food or the result, and they make stuff that looks better and tastes better in any kind of "blind" taste test).  Similar for engineering and writing songs.




But it becomes about the people not the tasks.

Machines can outperform Olympians. We still want to know who’s the fastest or strongest. It’s about a cultural shift to people being great at what they do.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There are reasons to create songwriting AIs beyond the motive of replacing living songwriters.  The most obvious one is to create tools to _assist_ living songwriters.




That's only if you view "assistant" in the sense of the unpaid intern that just does all the work while the boss gets the credit.



> Because music, art, and all of that is subjective, most of the audience won’t care whether something was produced by human hands, as long as they find it enjoyable.




Art is ultimately about communication, not merely esthetics.  A non-sentient machine cannot intend to communicate anything.

Examples of a coupe of current attempts to make a machine to do a human task is not really an argument that machines _WILL_ replace humans at all tasks.  Currently, making machines to ape human art is really more about learning how to make machines than it is learning how to replace humans.


----------



## NotAYakk

"Real" AI is defined as the AI we cannot yet make.

This means that "Real" AI retreats constantly.

Labeling things as something that can only be done by "Real" AI is hilarious, a joke 50 years old.


----------



## generic

NotAYakk said:


> "Real" AI is defined as the AI we cannot yet make.
> 
> This means that "Real" AI retreats constantly.
> 
> Labeling things as something that can only be done by "Real" AI is hilarious, a joke 50 years old.



The whole idea of organic intellect as in any terms "real" is a human construct.


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> That's only if you view "assistant" in the sense of the unpaid intern that just does all the work while the boss gets the credit.
> 
> 
> 
> Art is ultimately about communication, not merely esthetics.  A non-sentient machine cannot intend to communicate anything.
> 
> Examples of a coupe of current attempts to make a machine to do a human task is not really an argument that machines _WILL_ replace humans at all tasks.  Currently, making machines to ape human art is really more about learning how to make machines than it is learning how to replace humans.




I would love to have an AI that I could train to draw better than me. I would only have to feed it character designs and scripts, and it would draw them all faster than I could. At the very least I would love an AI that applied flat color to line art. (Ok, if it also shaded, that would be better). Anything that would help me produce faster....

A bit on topic, in my country they have announced that we'll be under quarantine until May 17th and May 30th, depending on whether you live on low contagion or high contagion zones. Guess which one I live in? 

On more global news

Coronavirus can survive long exposure to high temperature, a threat to lab staff around world: paper | South China Morning Post 

It seems that summer will do nothing to stop this thing from spreading... (Ok, take it with a grain of salt, because you know... But still, it is possible this will  last more than H1N1 did)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> That's only if you view "assistant" in the sense of the unpaid intern that just does all the work while the boss gets the credit.



In that BBC clip- which I found out is having playback issues- at least one of the artists featured saw the AI as actually pushing her to create things she normally wouldn’t.  

So, in a sense, it IS an unpaid assistant...or more accurately, an unpaid collaborator for her.



> Art is ultimately about communication, not merely esthetics.  A non-sentient machine cannot intend to communicate anything.




While true from a philosophical standpoint, that’s not how a huge section of humanity actually consume/engage with art in the real world.  As a practical matter, they only care if it is enjoyable for them to perceive.  All they need is the surface, the deeper, more cerebral level of engagement is superfluous to them.  My paternal grandfather was one of those- the man had a PhD in education and changed lives, but made no distinction between the work of the old masters and things he could buy for under $50.

Spend any time talking to musicians, and you’ll find the same dynamic as they push back against the assertion some people make that recordings with mass appeal (going multiple platinum) are somehow objectively better than recordings that fail to sell even 100k copies.  $$$ has nothing to do with the inherent value of music, they correctly insist, but that is nonetheless how some feel.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

MoonSong said:


> On more global news
> 
> Coronavirus can survive long exposure to high temperature, a threat to lab staff around world: paper | South China Morning Post
> 
> It seems that summer will do nothing to stop this thing from spreading... (Ok, take it with a grain of salt, because you know... But still, it is possible this will  last more than H1N1 did)



Considering places like Iran, Australia and the like were seeing significant spreading during hot weather, it was not likely that the seasons were going to offer us any significant respite.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> While true from a philosophical standpoint, that’s not how a huge section of humanity actually consume/engage with art in the real world.  As a practical matter, they only care if it is enjoyable for them to perceive.




_shrug_.  An unspecified "huge section" of humanity?  We are now in the realm of speculation, and that probably should have been, "I think enough of humanity doesn't care..."

And we can speculate more - noting that how we engage with art would likely change if we had vastly more time to study and appreciate it.


----------



## ad_hoc

tomBitonti said:


> I don't remember seeing projections on worldometer.  The projections were here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> IHME | COVID-19 Projections
> 
> 
> Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> covid19.healthdata.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Be Safe, Be Well,
> Tom Bitonti




Oh, must have had the wrong link copied. I was looking at both sites at the time.


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> _shrug_.  An unspecified "huge section" of humanity?  We are now in the realm of speculation, and that probably should have been, "I think enough of humanity doesn't care..."




Compare the movies that win Oscars to the movies that have a highest box office numbers.  The former are the ones made to be true art.  The latter are just designed to be enjoyable.  How many people do you know have seen Moonlight, Lala Land, and Manchester by the Sea?  How about Captain America: Civil War, Finding Dory, and Deadpool?  It's a gross generalization (yes, I handpicked a recent year with the really low grossing Best Picture winner), but I think it's also a pretty good approximation of the gap that Danny is talking about.  The numbers support calling that a huge section of humanity.



> And we can speculate more - noting that how we engage with art would likely change if we had vastly more time to study and appreciate it.




Seems to me that social distancing has given people vastly more time to engage with art.  And the most popular show on Netflix is "Tiger King".


----------



## tomBitonti

Umbran said:


> _shrug_.  An unspecified "huge section" of humanity?  We are now in the realm of speculation, and that probably should have been, "I think enough of humanity doesn't care..."
> 
> And we can speculate more - noting that how we engage with art would likely change if we had vastly more time to study and appreciate it.




I’ve found that the more I try art (in my case miniature painting, or selecting frames for art, or wood staining), the more I appreciate art generally.  My admiration and respect for exceptional art has increased tremendously.

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> _shrug_.  An unspecified "huge section" of humanity?  We are now in the realm of speculation, and that probably should have been, "I think enough of humanity doesn't care..."
> 
> And we can speculate more - noting that how we engage with art would likely change if we had vastly more time to study and appreciate it.



Like a bad attorney, I’m arguing from facts not in evidence.   Or more accurately, from anecdotes.  I’ve personally seen/heard/read  about too many people who interact with art and music purely from surfaces.  

One of my friends used to be in charge of decorating buildings for a major technology company.  While they definitely wanted real art on display, he was given little guidance on content beyond it being pretty and matching the color scheme of the area in general.

We acquired our first Seidler due to related circumstances- the prior owner was selling the art in a particular room because it no longer matched the furniture.

And if you’ve read ANY music press, you’d see recording lamenting about how bad popular music has become, drawing contrasts between formulaic platinum selling albums and supremely talented musicians working day jobs just to make ends meet.  One could argue that vapid pop tunes* churned out year after year by groups that are visually and sonically interchangeable actually speak to the souls of the people who buy their albums, but I find that harder to believe than they’re simply just enjoying a catchy beat. 

The most glaring example I ever encountered was when I tuned into an electronic music channel, and for the following 3 hours, every song included the same interrupted/accelerating rhythm break followed by some form of fanfare.  It would be like turning to a blues channel and every song started with “I woke up in the mornin’...”







* don’t get me wrong, I believe there IS such a thing as meaningful pop music.


----------



## ad_hoc

Several East coast states in the USA have formed an alliance and have declared that they are extending their lockdowns until at least May 15th in defiance of Trump.

Apparently West coast states are going to do something similar.

So that is good news for fighting COVID 19 in those regions which are 2 of the most populous in the country (the 3rd being Texas).


----------



## MarkB

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And if you’ve read ANY music press, you’d see recording lamenting about how bad popular music has become, drawing contrasts between formulaic platinum selling albums and supremely talented musicians working day jobs just to make ends meet.



Yeah, but to be fair they've been lamenting that since at least the 80s, probably a few decades longer.


----------



## NotAYakk

(54m, 4.3 trillion GDP): New York (20m), New Jersey (9m), Connecticut (3m), Delaware (1m), Pennsylvania (13m), Rhode Island (1m), and Massachusetts (7m)

(51m, 4 trillion GDP): Washington (7m), Oregon (4m), and California. (40m)

32% of population, 38% of GDP of USA.


----------



## tomBitonti

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Like a bad attorney, I’m arguing from facts not in evidence.   Or more accurately, from anecdotes.  I’ve personally seen/heard/read  about too many people who interact with art and music purely from surfaces.
> 
> One of my friends used to be in charge of decorating buildings for a major technology company.  While they definitely wanted real art on display, he was given little guidance on content beyond it being pretty and matching the color scheme of the area in general.
> 
> We acquired our first Seidler due to related circumstances- the prior owner was selling the art in a particular room because it no longer matched the furniture.
> 
> And if you’ve read ANY music press, you’d see recording lamenting about how bad popular music has become, drawing contrasts between formulaic platinum selling albums and supremely talented musicians working day jobs just to make ends meet.  One could argue that vapid pop tunes* churned out year after year by groups that are visually and sonically interchangeable actually speak to the souls of the people who buy their albums, but I find that harder to believe than they’re simply just enjoying a catchy beat.
> 
> The most glaring example I ever encountered was when I tuned into an electronic music channel, and for the following 3 hours, every song included the same interrupted/accelerating rhythm break followed by some form of fanfare.  It would be like turning to a blues channel and every song started with “I woke up in the mornin’...”
> 
> * don’t get me wrong, I believe there IS such a thing as meaningful pop music.




Eh, I'm tending to think that we are trending down towards _Brave New World_ plus _Fahrenheit 451_, where media is created to continually overwhelm folks, where infotainment is used to infatuate and un-moor rational though.

This is a great read: Which Dystopian Novel Got It Right: Orwell’s ‘1984’ or Huxley’s ‘Brave New World’?



			
				https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/13/books/review/which-dystopian-novel-got-it-right-orwells-1984-or-huxleys-brave-new-world.html said:
			
		

> Huxley believed that his version of dystopia was the more plausible one. In a 1949 letter, thanking Orwell for sending him a copy of “1984,” he wrote that he really didn’t think all that torture and jackbooting was necessary to subdue a population, and that he believed his own book offered a better solution. All you need to do, he said, is teach people to love their servitude. The totalitarian rulers in Huxley’s book do this not by oppressing their citizens but by giving them exactly what they want, or what they think they want — which is basically sex, drugs and rock ’n’ roll — and lulling them into complacency. The system entails a certain Trump-like suspicion of science and dismissal of history, but that’s a price the inhabitants of Huxley’s world happily pay. They don’t mourn their lost liberty, the way Orwell’s Winston Smith does; they don’t even know it’s gone.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> The former are the ones made to be true art.  The latter are just designed to be enjoyable.




There is so much presumed about what constitutes "art" in this "true art" vs "enjoyable" dichotomy that I can't really respond to it in this context.


----------



## Istbor

ad_hoc said:


> Several East coast states in the USA have formed an alliance and have declared that they are extending their lockdowns until at least May 15th in defiance of Trump.
> 
> Apparently West coast states are going to do something similar.
> 
> So that is good news for fighting COVID 19 in those regions which are 2 of the most populous in the country (the 3rd being Texas).




The MidWest did a coalition as well. 
Illinois
Wisconsin
Ohio
Indiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Kentucky

I know my state which is among them extended to the 26th of May our safer at home order.

But it also sounds like the President backed down and said it is up to the states to decide what works best for them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Same thing in Italy now USA.









						Anonymous tip 'led to the discovery of more than a dozen bodies' at US nursing home
					

Anonymous tip leads to discovery of more than a dozen bodies piled up at a New Jersey nursing home overwhelmed by Covid-19 outbreak.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

MarkB said:


> Yeah, but to be fair they've been lamenting that since at least the 80s, probably a few decades longer.



It was true back then, too.

I fully accept tastes differ, but consider how many great jazz musicians depend on European and Asian fanbases and are barely known in the USA, _the birthplace of the genre._

There’s a real hard truth behind the phrase, “big in Japan.”


----------



## Zardnaar

SPPS is down to 8 new cases out of 4200 tests per day.

 2 more deaths in palliative care facilities. Cluster of 20 though.

 Looks like we will go to level 3 which is about the same as everyone else lockdown. 

 Means we can go swimming and get deliveries like pizza, Uber eats etc.


----------



## Azzy

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It was true back then, too.
> 
> I fully accept tastes differ, but consider how many great jazz musicians depend on European and Asian fanbases and are barely known in the USA, _the birthplace of the genre._
> 
> There’s a real hard truth behind the phrase, “big in Japan.”




To be fair, I hate jazz.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Azzy said:


> To be fair, I hate jazz.



Lots of people do.  I’m not talking about personal taste, though, but jazz musicians’ lack of recognition as artists in comparison to even the worst pop bands.

Lets use the imperfect lens of record sales.

According to the RIAA, of the top selling albums in jazz history, only 8 have been certified platinum.  And of those, only 1 went multi platinum.  #6 on the list is a compilation- the soundtrack to Ken Burns’ documentary, _Jazz.  _Of the 92 albums certified Diamond, none are jazz.








						Best-selling Jazz Albums of All Time (RIAA); or "There's No Money in Jazz" - RYM/Sonemic
					

Here is a list of the highest selling jazz (and jazz fusion) albums based on RIAA info.   This list is meant to be informative only...again, based on record sales, and not the opinion of myself or any individual I know of. This is not necessarily a "BEST OF" list of the genre--and certainly not...




					rateyourmusic.com
				




In contrast, there were 4 platinum albums halfway through 2019.

You‘d think that the skill & talent of jazz musicians would translate into sales, but it doesn’t.  Regardless of the music’s intrinsic worth, it isn’t connecting to big audiences.

Sure, there’s more going on.  I was on a trip to Michigan & Illinois when my hosts brought me to a local record store...along with their gaggle of tweenagers.  I bought two of Soundgarden’s earliest releases.  Each little girl bought the latest NKOTB release...one CD for each member of the group, and named for him.

Irrational?  Sure- remember, “fan“ is derived from “fanatic”.  And it’s probably an exception rather than the norm, even within the NKOTB fanbase.  But that kind of behavior not only boosts sales, by doing so, it distorts the lens we were using to compare musicians.

However, it also reveals people not engaging with the music on the basis of its quality, but rather, the celebrity of those who made it.


----------



## GreyLord

It seems that some states are closing their borders, or closing them somewhat.  They have it where you need to report what reasons you have for crossing the state lines (not sure what they do if you have no reason or they don't think the reason is good enough) and basically trying to close the state borders to all but essential business for crossing.


----------



## Istbor

GreyLord said:


> It seems that some states are closing their borders, or closing them somewhat.  They have it where you need to report what reasons you have for crossing the state lines (not sure what they do if you have no reason or they don't think the reason is good enough) and basically trying to close the state borders to all but essential business for crossing.




My guess is turn back and return to your home or face a possible fine.


----------



## Eminence_Grise

My friends and I decided to cancel our road trip from Montreal to Gencon this year.

We don't know what the situation will be in July, or if the border will be opened by then, but we won't take the chance. 

The virus will still be around, and the usual lack of hygiene doesn't bode well for those that will attend (assuming it isn't cancelled).


----------



## Doc_Klueless

Whoops! Wrong thread. Ignore this... if... you ... CAN! Bwuhahahaha.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

GreyLord said:


> It seems that some states are closing their borders, or closing them somewhat.  They have it where you need to report what reasons you have for crossing the state lines (not sure what they do if you have no reason or they don't think the reason is good enough) and basically trying to close the state borders to all but essential business for crossing.



Ugh. I've been anticipating that. Guess I've got no choice but to give up on my interstate relocation plans for the foreseeable future? Ugh.

Is anyone (among the USAians here) aware of a central repository of travel/business/social restrictions by state? I've been looking for something to help with travel/business decisions. Main one I've found is THIS SITE, but to get the details, you still have to slog through dozens of governors' executive orders, etc. It's pretty overwhelming, so if there's a simpler guide out there, I'd love to hear about it.


----------



## Mallus

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Is anyone (among the USAians here) aware of a central repository of travel/business/social restrictions by state?



I'm not aware of any. I'd be surprised if one existed yet. 

I'm just glad I live in the newly-formed Boston-Philadelphia Metropolitan Axis. Or should that be Providence-Rehoboth Beach Metropolitan Axis? Anyway, I've always wanted to live in The Sprawl. I wonder if Amazon is still shipping mirrorshades...


----------



## Umbran

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Ugh. I've been anticipating that. Guess I've got no choice but to give up on my interstate relocation plans for the foreseeable future? Ugh.




They mostly aren't closed borders.  It is more often that people who cross need to self-quarantine for a couple of weeks.  Which may be fine for a relocation - you move... and then sit in place for two weeks like you were going to anyway.  Your issue is merely laying in supplies in your new place, as you aren't supposed to go shopping...


----------



## tomBitonti

Eminence_Grise said:


> My friends and I decided to cancel our road trip from Montreal to Gencon this year.
> 
> We don't know what the situation will be in July, or if the border will be opened by then, but we won't take the chance.
> 
> The virus will still be around, and the usual lack of hygiene doesn't bode well for those that will attend (assuming it isn't cancelled).




Isn't that (or won't that be) cancelled anyways?

Edit: Huh, not yet: Gen Con LLC | Updates on Gen Con and COVID-19

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Umbran said:


> They mostly aren't closed borders.  It is more often that people who cross need to self-quarantine for a couple of weeks.  Which may be fine for a relocation - you move... and then sit in place for two weeks like you were going to anyway.  Your issue is merely laying in supplies in your new place, as you aren't supposed to go shopping...



That would be ideal, to be honest.
But I should clarify: I don't actually have a specific place to move into yet, so I guess it's more than just "relocation". I still have to scout out a locale to live, and then buy a residence. I had started a road trip at the end of January to do just that. But that demands a lot of travel flexibility, so starting out again any time soon just doesn't look realistic at this point.
Meanwhile, I'm doing what I can remotely, but may just abandon the plan entirely to resettle in-state.

Note to self: Next midlife crisis, take into account the possibility of a pandemic.


----------



## ad_hoc

tomBitonti said:


> Isn't that (or won't that be) cancelled anyways?
> 
> Edit: Huh, not yet: Gen Con LLC | Updates on Gen Con and COVID-19
> 
> Be Safe, Be Well,
> Tom Bitonti




They have a contract with the convention centre so they will need to have a mandate to shut down before they can make the decision themselves so they don't lose out for breaking the contract.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Istbor said:


> But it also sounds like the President backed down and said it is up to the states to decide what works best for them.



...only to turn around and stoke certain fires with his new series of “LIBERATE (Insert State Name Here)!” tweets.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ...only to turn around and stoke certain fires with his new series of “LIBERATE (Insert State Name Here)!” tweets.




 Damn he's worse than incompetent.


----------



## Azzy

Zardnaar said:


> Damn he's worse than incompetent.



What was your first clue?


----------



## Hussar

Hey, gear up, he'll probably be around for four more years.


----------



## Imaculata

The mayor in Jaws got reelected too. Just saying.

But yes, he is worse than incompetent. He seems to be doing everything he can to make this worse.

Disband the US epidemic response plan and fire the whole team of experts - check
Deny the virus exists - check
Dismiss the virus as just a flue - check
Wait for months to take any action - check
Delay crucial aid to states - check
Intercept crucial aid on its way to states - check
Delay wellfair to have it signed with his name?! - check
Encourage states to reopen early - check
Play a progaganda video during a huge health crisis - check
Waste billions of dollars on giving the economy a minor spike for 1 hour - check
Want to fire his health expert in a tweet - check
Cut funding for the WHO - check
Lift quarantine before the epidemic is under control - check
Encourage protests against social distancing - check
Forcing out the director of the US agency for vaccine development - check
Encourage unproven medicine that could kill people - check
Suggesting people inject disinfectants into their body -check
Suggest to his staff to do nothing and just let everyone die - check

There's probably many I missed, it is hard to keep track of this much incompetence.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> The mayor in Jaws got reelected too. Just saying.
> 
> But yes, he is worse than incompetent. He seems to be doing everything he can to make this worse.
> 
> Disband the US epidemic response plan and fire the whole team of experts - check
> Deny the virus exists - check
> Dismiss the virus as just a flue - check
> Delay crucial aid to states - check
> Intercept crucial aid on its way to states - check
> Delay wellfair to have it signed with his name?! - check
> Encourage unproven medicine that could kill people - check
> Encourage states to reopen early - check
> Play a progaganda video during a huge health crisis - check
> Waste billions of dollars on giving the economy a minor spike for 1 hour - check
> Want to fire his health expert - check
> Cut funding for the WHO - check
> Lift quarantine before the epidemic is under control - check
> 
> There's probably many I missed, it is hard to keep track of this much incompetence.




 Incompetence would be an improvement.


----------



## Ogre Mage

Here is what the Nalfeshnee Demon occupying the White House has been doing this week:

Sunday:  share a tweet that he should fire Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the country's leading experts on infectious diseases.

Monday:  claim he had "total authority" over the states (which is bulls**t).  Note that a month ago he said "I take no responsibility at all" for the coronavirus crisis.

Tuesday:  halt funding to the WHO in the middle of the pandemic.

Wednesday: threaten to adjourn both Houses of Congress.

Thursday:  the Nalfeshnee "authorized" the states to reopen the country, backing off his earlier claim of "total authority."

Friday:  encourage mass protests of social distancing in states run by Democratic governors.

This is a horror show from The Abyss.  We have 35,000 dead Americans from the coronavirus and about 22 million unemployed.  It is like he is spinning some gigantic wheel of doom to see what random horrible act he will commit next.

Pray for us.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hey Nalfeshnee resent the comparison.


----------



## Ogre Mage

Zardnaar said:


> Hey Nalfeshnee resent the comparison.




Nalfeshnee are normally very intelligent.  But there are always exceptions.  They must be embarrassed by this one.


----------



## Zardnaar

And in some countries they can't test.









						Coronavirus: Ecuador sees massive surge in deaths in April
					

Guayas province, home to the city of Guayaquil, sees nearly 6,000 extra deaths in a two-week period.



					www.bbc.com
				




 At least very well. Here's the herd immunity in action.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

While it’s clear leadership issues in the USA have been laid bare by the ongoing pandemic in ways that will cost lives, we should probably take a couple steps back from the political precipice of politics in this thread.

*****

My Dad has been asked to shift his practice to telemedicine by the new bosses.  It will mean a pay cut, but it will make Mom (and him) feel safer.  He had been thinking about doing so in December anyway, so I’m pretty sure he’s going to agree to that.


----------



## Umbran

Ogre Mage said:


> Here is what the Nalfeshnee Demon occupying the White House has been doing this week:




*Mod Note:*
There have been a bunch of politics warnings in this thread.  

At this point, folks should not expect further warnings.  They should expect to be removed from the thread without comment. 

We recognize how difficult these times are, but this isn't a place for such commentary.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> While it’s clear leadership issues in the USA have been laid bare by the ongoing pandemic in ways that will cost lives, we should probably take a couple steps back from the political precipice of politics in this thread.
> 
> *****
> 
> My Dad has been asked to shift his practice to telemedicine by the new bosses.  It will mean a pay cut, but it will make Mom (and him) feel safer.  He had been thinking about doing so in December anyway, so I’m pretty sure he’s going to agree to that.




I'm surprised it took that long.

I have been talking to my doctors over the phone for the last 6+ weeks. All non-life saving procedures have been cancelled too.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A good read on the timeline we should probably expect on a vaccine:








						My father is a top virologist who believes the coronavirus vaccines won't be ready for distribution until 2021 — here's why
					

"SARS-CoV2 vaccines will not be realistically available for another 12-18 months. And even then, we must be lucky every step of the way."




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Imaculata

That is worrying, but not surpising. Right from the start I've had a strong feeling that a lot of the projections that various governments around the world have been making about vaccines against Corona, have been wildly optimistic. At the rate at which this virus mutates, will it not have become immune to a vaccine once it is finally ready? Will it keep adapting as quickly as the flue does, and keep returning every year? Perhaps this is going to become the new normal, and we should all start settling in? Because I don't think this virus is going away any time soon.


----------



## ad_hoc

Imaculata said:


> That is worrying, but not surpising. Right from the start I've had a strong feeling that a lot of the projections that various governments around the world have been making about vaccines against Corona, have been wildly optimistic. At the rate at which this virus mutates, will it not have become immune to a vaccine once it is finally ready? Will it keep adapting as quickly as the flue does, and keep returning every year? Perhaps this is going to become the new normal, and we should all start settling in? Because I don't think this virus is going away any time soon.




Does it mutate rapidly?

I have read that one of the good things about it is that it isn't likely to.

One of the real problems though is that people might not be building immunity to it or for very long. This is the case with some of the coronaviruses so there is the fear that will occur with this one too.


----------



## Imaculata

Apparently there are already at least 3 variants going around. As for immunity, I heard something about cured patients becoming infected a 2nd time...


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ...only to turn around and stoke certain fires with his new series of “LIBERATE (Insert State Name Here)!” tweets.




Since I have no hope that team mod will call this out.  I figure I will.  This is blantantly political and against the site rules.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> That is worrying, but not surpising. Right from the start I've had a strong feeling that a lot of the projections that various governments around the world have been making about vaccines against Corona, have been wildly optimistic. At the rate at which this virus mutates, will it not have become immune to a vaccine once it is finally ready? Will it keep adapting as quickly as the flue does, and keep returning every year? Perhaps this is going to become the new normal, and we should all start settling in? Because I don't think this virus is going away any time soon.



I mentioned Covid’s mutation rate somewhere upthread, with a link.  

Compared to the rate for influenza viruses, Covid is a Model T next to drag racers.  As of mid March, there were 8 known strains of Covid-19, but they were all very similar.  Because of this, virologists were optimistically suggesting that any treatment or vaccine would likely be effective against all strains, and of long-lasting efficacy.

Of course, there’s hundreds of coronaviruses out there...


----------



## GreyLord

I have heard promising things about remdesivir.

Unfortunately a hedge fund manager promote it to boost the stocks and the company had to come in and tamp things down (but only after they found out about the promotion of the hedge manager, ran it through Public Affairs, and got them to put out a statement which took around 3-4 hours -which may seem like a long time but is actually really fast when you consider how long it can take corporations to respond with Public Affairs sometimes).  This was long enough to do a pump and dump for the hedge fund.

It did not reflect well on the company, but it was not the company itself dumping it's stocks but a hedge fund manager and PR firm.  They tried to squash it and hopes that it was a cure quickly as they are still doing research.

However, the ideas he latched onto were promising.  It is ONLY in a very early stage but it appears to help a LOT with the early cases.  However, it is limited enough in research that they are unwilling to say whether it is a placebo affect or the actual medicine before more analysis is done on what happened (end of April and early May at the earliest for real analysis to be done) and then more widespread testing if the results are positive.

Now, this is not a cure as people would think it is.  It stops the virus from replicating.  This means the virus is still in the person's system, but it will be unable to duplicate itself as easily.  It does not heal the person or cure them, that is still up to the immune system.  It helps keep the disease under control while the immune system is still working.  The patients I think have been taking it for only about a week in the study.  The disease can over a normal course take up to 20-40 days to run it's course so I can understand why they don't know if the patients are actually cured, it's gone into a sort of isolated state and will resurge, or what will happen.  Even then, it was a limited course and they had trouble finding test subjects.

However, if it turns out that this CAN be used as a treatment with a high level of success (and the soonest they might actually know it seems would be June or July and maybe August or September, they still need more testing and a larger test group for a second and third wave of testing and viability) this could be almost as good as a vaccine.  Just like when you get strep you can go to the doctor and get a medicine to help treat it, you could go and get a medicine to treat the COVID.  

We could probably all go out and do our normal thing at that point and if we came down with symptoms early on, go and get the treatment and continue on with our lives.

I HOPE the tests turn out well because this medicine is a tad less intrusive than the other options people have looked at in hope to treat this illness thus far, but...it's too early to know.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The trials on that look promising.  There was also some buzz about a head-lice treatment,








						Can a drug that kills head lice cure COVID-19 patients? It works in a petri dish, but...
					

Can a drug that kills head lice cure COVID-19 patients? It works in a petri dish, but...




					www.chicagotribune.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I don’t recall if I posted this here or not:








						Using blue shop towels in homemade face masks can filter particles 2x to 3x better than cotton, 3 clothing designers discover after testing dozens of fabrics
					

Three clothing makers built their own particle-testing lab to design a better homemade surgical mask.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




I’m posting/reposting as an update.  We have a small supply of masks in our house, and since I’m the person using them- mostly on shopping trips for groceries- they should last a little while.  However, with the uncertainty surrounding the length of the current lockdown and the possibility of future waves of 
Covid-19 outbreaks (or other contagions), we thought it would be a good idea to get out the sewing supplies to make our own.

We’re still considering what we need for the outer layers, but that article convinced us to track down some of these for the inner layer.  Here’s why:



> Inserting two of these towels into an ordinary cotton mask brought filtration up to 93% of particles as small as 0.3 microns, the smallest their machine could test. Meanwhile, the cotton masks filtered 60% of particles at best in their tests, Schempf said.




Well...easier said than done.  I don’t know if everyone had the same idea, but polyester hydro knit towels are kinda hard to find right now.  Maybe people are using them instead of pater towels in their kitchens, etc.

I could find _similar_ products with ease, even from the same manufacturers.  But neither they nor the products from other companies actually listed the materials used, only breakdowns of the amount of recycled material used.

It took me vitiating an Ace, a Lowe’s and 2 Home Depots to find those ones specifically mentioned in the article.

Lowes had them in the website, but didn’t have them anywhere in store.  Apparently, they’re not dealing with the vendor who distributes them anymore.  And one place I found them online didn’t have locations in my state and was selling them in-store only.

For the record, even though they’re normally found in the Cleaning Supplies sections of stores, Home Depot ALSO carried them in the Paint department.  The first location I hit had none, but the second had great big stacks of them in the paint department _only._


----------



## ad_hoc

How effective are cloth masks at blocking and limiting the distance of droplets from the person wearing them?

That is the primary reason why it is good to have a society wearing them.


----------



## tomBitonti

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The trials on that look promising.  There was also some buzz about a head-lice treatment,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Can a drug that kills head lice cure COVID-19 patients? It works in a petri dish, but...
> 
> 
> Can a drug that kills head lice cure COVID-19 patients? It works in a petri dish, but...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.chicagotribune.com




Later in that article a virologist is quoted as saying that they would never think to use the drug to treat Covid-19 because of how toxic the drug is at levels which kill the virus.  (I tried to cut and paste the paragraph here, but Chicago Tribune does something that break select/copy on an IPad.  Bad, CT, Bad!)

I suspect this is the case for a lot of drugs.  Lysol probably kills the virus very effectively, but you don’t want to spray your lungs with that.

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Morrus

ad_hoc said:


> How effective are cloth masks at blocking and limiting the distance of droplets from the person wearing them?
> 
> That is the primary reason why it is good to have a society wearing them.



Yeah, they don’t protect you. They protect people _from_ you. They work when everybody is wearing them.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Imaculata said:


> Apparently there are already at least 3 variants going around. As for immunity, I heard something about cured patients becoming infected a 2nd time...



Possibly with another strain . . .


----------



## Zardnaar

Down to single digits, 9 new cases.. 

 Majority of cases have also recovered. Decision about lockdown level 3 tomorrow.

Some parts of the world are getting the worst of it. 









						The devastating consequences of coronavirus lockdowns in poor countries
					

A one-size-fits-all approach to fighting the virus could lead to even more suffering in the developing world.




					www.vox.com
				




 Basically they can't isolate due to resources. People starving already.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Zardnaar said:


> Some parts of the world are getting the worst of it.
> 
> Basically they can't isolate due to resources. People starving already.




And on top of covid-19, eastern Africa is now bracing for the worst locust swarms in decades:









						Africa's Huge Locust Swarms Are Growing at the Worst Time
					

As coronavirus takes hold and farmers plant crops, the continent faces a new wave of locusts 20 times larger than one earlier this year.




					www.wired.com


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> Apparently there are already at least 3 variants going around.




Note that "variant" does not equate to "will need a different vaccine.  

I believe this was mentioned up-thread, but we are used to thinking about the flu, that needs a new virus every year. That is partly due to change, but more because 1) Vaccine immunity to influenza only lasts about six months, and  2) there are several significantly different viruses and we don't know _which one_ will spread widely in a given year.

Due to differences in genetic structure, the covid-19 virus changes much more slowly than influenza does.


----------



## Umbran

The Green Hermit said:


> Possibly with another strain . . .




Or the same one.  We don't know.  

Ellipses are great for sounding mysterious and increasing tension (so - anxiety), but ellipses indicate a lack of information.  There's enough known stuff to worry about that suggesting completely unproven stuff really isn't constructive.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

tomBitonti said:


> Later in that article a virologist is quoted as saying that they would never think to use the drug to treat Covid-19 because of how toxic the drug is at levels which kill the virus.  (I tried to cut and paste the paragraph here, but Chicago Tribune does something that break select/copy on an IPad.  Bad, CT, Bad!)
> 
> I suspect this is the case for a lot of drugs.  Lysol probably kills the virus very effectively, but you don’t want to spray your lungs with that.
> 
> Be Safe, Be Well,
> Tom Bitonti



True, but that doesn’t fully negate its potential.  It could be a lower, non-toxic dose hampers Covid’s ability to replicate, buying time for the body’s immune system to defeat it.  Perhaps a low dose partnered with other drugs will do the trick.

Maybe research into it will lead to a similar drug that is more effective but less toxic.

...or maybe it’s a complete dead end.  Only time will tell.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> Apparently there are already at least 3 variants going around. As for immunity, I heard something about cured patients becoming infected a 2nd time...



8 strains, last I looked,

There are some reports of patients testing positive after supposedly being declared a Covid-free, but they‘re still trying to figure out exactly why.


----------



## MoonSong

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Of course, there’s hundreds of coronaviruses out there...



I have a personal strain that never leaves me. As soon as my defenses get low I start getting a sore throat and all symptoms vanish the moment I get rest and relax enough. Until the next time I get too little sleep or a very stressful day.


----------



## Hussar

MoonSong said:


> I have a personal strain that never leaves me. As soon as my defenses get low I start getting a sore throat and all symptoms vanish the moment I get rest and relax enough. Until the next time I get too little sleep or a very stressful day.



I call those students.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> Or the same one.  We don't know.
> 
> Ellipses are great for sounding mysterious and increasing tension (so - anxiety), but ellipses indicate a lack of information.  There's enough known stuff to worry about that suggesting completely unproven stuff really isn't constructive.




Same goes for suggesting it may be the same strain.


----------



## Morrus

Imaculata said:


> As for immunity, I heard something about cured patients becoming infected a 2nd time...



There's been a story about 130-ish cases in South Korea going round for about a month now, but it's always that same story and hasn't been replicated anywhere else in the world, and a lot of folks think that's more about the testing kits than actual reoccurrences. Every time it pops up, it's the same report. That said, there's no evidence yet that immunity happens, either. At this early stage, it's hard to tell. We'll know for sure in a few months though. Let's hope so!


----------



## ad_hoc

Morrus said:


> There's been a story about 130-ish cases in South Korea going round for about a month now, but it's always that same story and hasn't been replicated anywhere else in the world, and a lot of folks think that's more about the testing kits than actual reoccurrences. Every time it pops up, it's the same report. That said, there's no evidence yet that immunity happens, either. At this early stage, it's hard to tell. We'll know for sure in a few months though. Let's hope so!




I think the 2nd part is more concerning.

There are various coronaviruses where immunity does not last very long and the fear is that this will be one of them.


----------



## Waller

Oh no. Turns out Angry GM is one of those "your life is worth less than my FREEEEEDOM!" types....


Disappointing. Isn't he a Gamergater too, or am I misremembering?


----------



## ad_hoc

Corrosive said:


> Oh no. Turns out Angry GM is one of those "your life is worth less than my FREEEEEDOM!" types....
> 
> 
> Disappointing. Isn't he a Gamergater too, or am I misremembering?




Zero surprise on that one. He's always turned me off in the way he writes.


----------



## Azzy




----------



## Morrus

Ugh. I don’t really know much about him, but this is unfortunate. 



			
				Angry GM said:
			
		

> But you know what I think is worth risking my life for? Everyone's freedom to choose. So, yeah, I'll go out and make my voice heard in protest against the suspension of American freedom. And if I get sick and die, so be it. Once upon a time, people in this nation believed that it was worth risking a little death to be free.



He’s welcome to risk his own life. The problem is that it’s other people’s’ lives he’s putting at risk. Social distancing isn’t just about yourself.


----------



## ad_hoc

I'm biased here too but a lot of my compassion is going out to the healthcare workers who are risking their lives (and dying) and don't have a choice not to work. 

All these jerks with these protests are disrespecting the people keeping them alive.

That and that it's not a government led shutdown, it's all mandated from health professionals. The people keeping the world alive.


----------



## ad_hoc

The other big factor these 'freedom!' types are ignoring is that if the economy is open then not all people actually have the right to choose.

All the poor people must work.

It's not about freedom, it's about sacrificing the poor (which is business as usual I guess just much more gross now).


----------



## Morrus

Azzy said:


> View attachment 121183



Let’s not elevate this from important safety advice to politics, please. It is important to get the social distancing message out, and to refute dangerous or incorrect safety information like that above, but let’s keep it to that.


----------



## Son of the Serpent

Morrus said:


> Let’s not elevate this from important safety advice to politics, please. It is important to get the social distancing message out, and to refute dangerous or incorrect safety information like that above, but let’s keep it to that.



Point of curiousity.  Did you ban angry gm or azzy?


----------



## The Green Hermit

Morrus said:


> There's been a story about 130-ish cases in South Korea going round for about a month now, but it's always that same story and hasn't been replicated anywhere else in the world, and a lot of folks think that's more about the testing kits than actual reoccurrences. Every time it pops up, it's the same report. That said, there's no evidence yet that immunity happens, either. At this early stage, it's hard to tell. We'll know for sure in a few months though. Let's hope so!



In my neighboring county, in Washington State, the first official case was deemed recovered, released from the hospital, and then declared to be positive again. So it isn't just in South Korea.


----------



## Morrus

Son of the Serpent said:


> Point of curiousity.  Did you ban angry gm or azzy?



We don’t discuss moderation in public. It’s not a pony show. Don’t post in this thread again, please.


----------



## FrogReaver

Azzy said:


> View attachment 121183





The Green Hermit said:


> In my neighboring county, in Washington State, the first official case was deemed recovered, released from the hospital, and then declared to be positive again. So it isn't just in South Korea.




Which could have occurred for any number of reasons.


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> Which could have occurred for any number of reasons.




What are you getting at?

Do you want people to not talk about it at all?

Should we stop our discussions because we don't know the full properties of the virus?


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> What are you getting at?
> 
> Do you want people to not talk about it at all?
> 
> Should we stop our discussions because we don't know the full properties of the virus?




Been down this road not all that long ago.  You all give this big concerned speech about something you don't know any of the properties of and, I say there are other possibilities and then I am the one getting dog piled on dismissing something no one knows anything about. 

I'll tell ya what, if you can bring that up as a possibility to be concerned about then I can bring up the possibility that it's really a big todo about nothing.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> Zero surprise on that one. He's always turned me off in the way he writes.




 He might be partly right though. 
 First cases of starvation are happening in India. 

 People are lining up for food hand outs in America. One article I read was projecting beef shortages in the US.

 Produce is rotting in the ground in various countries. 

 Lockdown does seem to work but you've got to do it early and total. 

 NZ seems to have worked out trajectory was the same as everyone else's then it flattened for a week then declined. It peaked at 89 doubling every two days. 

Testing has doubled since then, last 3 days 9, 15, 8 cases. 

 We went into total lockdown once they found 2 cases of community spread. The partial thing to lockdown lasted 2 days, then another 2 days to full lockdown. 

 USA/UK had that choice back in early February. It they took it around about now they would be similar to NZ on a larger scale. Once Italy did it 11th of March everyone else should have. 

 You're going to do it anyway may as well do it sooner rather than later.


----------



## Zardnaar

And posting in bed at 7:38am. 

I have company.  Random cat picture just because. 





 Someone's enjoying lockdown. Crap at D&D though.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> I have company.  Random cat picture just because.
> 
> View attachment 121190
> 
> Someone's enjoying lockdown. Crap at D&D though.




Stat up a Tabaxi- or a Hound Archon- and see if that tickles kitty’s fancy.

Or maybe a character that has to roll a lot of dice,  Yessssss...dice rolling...


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Stat up a Tabaxi- or a Hound Archon- and see if that tickles kitty’s fancy.
> 
> Or maybe a character that has to roll a lot of dice,  Yessssss...dice rolling...




 If by dice rolling you mean find it under the couch she's good at that. 

 More (mild) disruptions to food.









						Coronavirus: Dairy jobs on offer as Covid-19 lockdown stems flow of migrant workers
					

The dairy industry needs "good, hardworking" Kiwis to fill roles left empty by overseas staff.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Gonna need workers in about a month.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I see you are familiar in the ways of cats!

Somewhere, I gave a picture from my childhood (in the mid-70s) of my two cats storming my castle and wreaking havoc with the plastic knights & horses.  Well, not so much storming as one occupying the courtyard and keeping the other out.

I need to scan it one day...


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I see you are familiar in the ways of cats!
> 
> Somewhere, I gave a picture from my childhood (in the mid-70s) of my two cats storming my castle and wreaking havoc with the plastic knights & horses.  Well, not so much storming as one occupying the courtyard and keeping the other out.
> 
> I need to scan it one day...




 Got 2 of them. Ones on me atm she's very needy and the wife is at work.  Barely sat down for breakfast and yeah.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sweden's herd approach.









						Coronavirus: Parts of Sweden hope to achieve 'herd immunity' for Covid-19 next month
					

The country's experiment with coronavirus restrictions has made it a European outlier - drawing intrigue from around the globe.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




Per capita ten times death of neighboring Finland. 

 Last per capita death rate has increased 50% since last time I posted it.

 They were worse than the USA, now they're up there with UK.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We’re still considering what we need for the outer layers, but that article convinced us to track down some of these for the inner layer.  Here’s why:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Inserting two of these towels into an ordinary cotton mask brought filtration up to 93% of particles as small as 0.3 microns, the smallest their machine could test. Meanwhile, the cotton masks filtered 60% of particles at best in their tests, Schempf said.
Click to expand...



So, there can be an issue with this in the context of a cloth face mask.

Two towels, inside a cotton mask - that's four layers of fabric.  Air is a fluid, and will take the path of least resistance, which, with four layers of fabric, is likely _around the edges of the mask_.  Yes, the mask filters wonderfully... but most of the air is probably no longer going through the filter!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> So, there can be an issue with this in the context of a cloth face mask.
> 
> Two towels, inside a cotton mask - that's four layers of fabric.  Air is a fluid, and will take the path of least resistance, which, with four layers of fabric, is likely _around the edges of the mask_.  Yes, the mask filters wonderfully... but most of the air is probably no longer going through the filter!




It _is _a Maginot Line.  That’s why they compare these more to surgical masks as opposed to the N95s.

But as they’ve been saying- before and after the changing recommendations on wearing masks- it’s less about protecting you than protecting others FROM you.

(Additionally, my personal experience tells me that you’re also not ONLY getting air though the sides.)


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> How effective are cloth masks at blocking and limiting the distance of droplets from the person wearing them?




After a very basic point, that depends on whether you are wearing them properly.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Got 2 of them. Ones on me atm she's very needy and the wife is at work.  Barely sat down for breakfast and yeah.



I think many who have had cats can relate.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> After a very basic point, that depends on whether you are wearing them properly.



Yep!

1) the metal part- if it has one- is meant to go over the nose and you’re supposed to pinch it for a better seal.  It seems a small thing, but you can definitely notice the difference.  If I’m wearing one and forget to pinch, my glasses start fogging quite quickly.

2) you need to cover both your nose and mouth.  In my experience, you need to pull the bottom down under the chin to prevent slippage.

3)  Ideally- and I‘m guilty of this- your facial hair doesn’t protrude under the boundaries of the mask.

4) once you’re mask is properly fitted to your face, avoid touching it as much as possible.  I see people out & about manipulating their masks constantly while eating & drinking on the go.

5) remove it from the rear by the loops or drawstrings, not by grabbing the front.  That way, you don’t contaminate your hands in the process.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> After a very basic point, that depends on whether you are wearing them properly.




 My effort at a home made mask. Old tee shirt with hoodie and beanie.






 Found some normal ones at corner store for $.1.20 each. $8 for 100 ml hand sanitizer.

 Only been to supermarket once in 4 weeks.


----------



## tomBitonti

Anyone know how effective Is one of these:





Would be annoying to wear for very long.  The cartidges are labeled “R51A Chemical cartridge for organic vapors”.  I got this to wear while pulling out fiberglass insulation from my crawl space.  It seemed to be a good way to avoid a lung full of fiberglass filaments.

Problems: I have only the two filter cartridges.  I’d have shave my beard to get a good seal.

Be safe, be well,
‘Tom Bitonti


----------



## Umbran

tomBitonti said:


> Anyone know how effective Is one of these:
> 
> The cartidges are labeled “R51A Chemical cartridge for organic vapors”.




Not an expert, but my quick reading suggest that won't do it. The R51A is for _vapors_ - things that are already a gas.  It needs a dust/mist (DM) or high efficiency (HEPA) filter to prevent transmission of covid-19.






						Approved Particulate Filtering Facepiece Respirators | NPPTL | NIOSH | CDC
					

A listing of NIOSH-Approved Particulate Filtering Facepiece Respirators that health care workers can use to help protect themselves from diseases potentially spread through the air such as SARS or Tuberculosis.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## Zardnaar

South Pacific Police State Update. 

One more week of level 4 lockdown, then dropping to level 3. 

 They're very similar but we can't get takeaways delivered and construction firms can build stuff. 









						Coronavirus: Disappointed NZ businesses have a week to get ready for alert level 3
					

Extending level 4 until Monday night doesn't just add 2 extra business days, truckers say.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Our level 3 is kinda like everyone else's normal lockdown. 

  Level 3 is for two weeks so 3 weeks of lockdown left. 

 Only 8 cases of community transmission contained, Director General of health seems confidant of no community transmission.

 9 news cases today, same as yesterday.

 Level 2 isn't business as usual but schools are open. Schools optional for level 3 due to returning parents .

 Only 500k people are working atm that will double next week.









						New Zealand to ease tough virus lockdown measures next week
					

New Zealand will next week ease some of the world's strictest lockdown measures taken to tackle the novel coronavirus pandemic, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Monday, after a month of tight restrictions slowed the spread of the disease.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Hussar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> /snip
> 
> 3)  Ideally- and I‘m guilty of this- your facial hair doesn’t protrude under the boundaries of the mask.
> /snip




One of the primary reasons that the military makes you stay clean shaven.  Gas masks don't work over bushy beards very well.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> One of the primary reasons that the military makes you stay clean shaven.  Gas masks don't work over bushy beards very well.



Depends on your branch and country,  I knew several of my Dad’s male colleagues and direct reports during his time in the the Army’s medical branch had moustaches or neatly trimmed beards- things like goatees or Van Dykes.  None of the AF guys in the same programs did, though.


----------



## Hussar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Depends on your branch and country,  I knew several of my Dad’s male colleagues and direct reports during his time in the the Army’s medical branch had moustaches or neatly trimmed beards- things like goatees or Van Dykes.  None of the AF guys in the same programs did, though.




Well, yes, this is true.  My brother was stationed at the north pole (Alert) for about 6 months and came back looking like a mountain man.    Navy obviously allows for facial hair as well, depending on your branch.  It's not like you face a lot of gas attacks on a submarine.    Well, at least, not enemy gas attacks.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> 3)  Ideally- and I‘m guilty of this- your facial hair doesn’t protrude under the boundaries of the mask.




We're gonna need a bigger mask


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> We're gonna need a bigger mask




S'okay.  None of those dudes would look appropriate except in some old brass diving helmet anyway.


----------



## Zardnaar

__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com
				




 Puff piece on my she who must be obeyed number 3. I live with the other 2.

 It explains what we did. 

 Turns out it's possible to get sick of canned peaches.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Redirect Notice
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Puff piece on my she who must be obeyed number 3. I live with the other 2.
> 
> It explains what we did.
> 
> Turns out it's possible to get sick if canned peaches.



It’s possible to get sick of anything.

I learned to cook because Mom got sick and was hospitalized for a couple weeks.  When discharged, she was still on bed rest for another week.  During that time, Dad fed me cereal for breakfast, PB&J for school lunches...and PB&J for dinner.  The J was always grape- the only flavor I liked.

“When you get better,” I whispered to her, “_teach me how to cook!”_

Fast forward to my freshman year of college.  I had no car, and our entire campus food service was in the middle of being renovated, and the lone open cafeteria closed at 7PM.   So if i missed dinner there and my more mobile friends were out of touch, I was reduced to eating what I had in my dorm fridge or closet.  Many times, that meant a PB&J.  By the time I finished that first year, I had gone through pounds of the stuff.

I still eat peanut butter, but my appreciation of grape jelly was extinguished that year.  It has been something like 33 years now.

I similarly burned out on white chocolate in about a year.  I only eat it in certain cookies, these days.

I even had a month off of beef after a 4 day binge.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s possible to get sick of anything.
> 
> I learned to cook because Mom got sick and was hospitalized for a couple weeks.  When discharged, she was still on bed rest for another week.  During that time, Dad fed me cereal for breakfast, PB&J for school lunches...and PB&J for dinner.  The J was always grape- the only flavor I liked.
> 
> “When you get better,” I whispered to her, “_teach me how to cook!”_
> 
> Fast forward to my freshman year of college.  I had no car, and our entire campus food service was in the middle of being renovated, and the lone open cafeteria closed at 7PM.   So if i missed dinner there and my more mobile friends were out of touch, I was reduced to eating what I had in my dorm fridge or closet.  Many times, that meant a PB&J.  By the time I finished that first year, I had gone through pounds of the stuff.
> 
> I still eat peanut butter, but my appreciation of grape jelly was extinguished that year.  It has been something like 33 years now.
> 
> I similarly burned out on white chocolate in about a year.  I only eat it in certain cookies, these days.
> 
> I even had a month off of beef after a 4 day binge.




 Been eating oatmeal since January. Sexing it up with blueberries and banana and out of fresh blueberries. 

 Now it's canned peaches, and bought some cornflakes and and rice bubbles. 

 Plan was to avoid the supermarkets as much as possible due to maybe asthma. Only went once in a month.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Been eating oatmeal since January. Sexing it up with blueberries and banana and out of fresh blueberries.
> 
> Now it's canned peaches, and bought some cornflakes and and rice bubbles.
> 
> Plan was to avoid the supermarkets as much as possible due to maybe asthma. Only went once in a month.




Oatmeal I usually keep simple: made with milk, not water, flavored with sugar & cinnamon.

How about a sweetener like honey, maple or agave?  Possibly with nuts?


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Oatmeal I usually keep simple: made with milk, not water, flavored with sugar & cinnamon.
> 
> How about a sweetener like honey, maple or agave?  Possibly with nuts?




 That's what the fruit is for. Been trying to cut down on salt, suger to a lesser extent. 

 It's generally flavored oatmeal. Apple cinnamon, honey, vanilla and blueberries, raspberry etc. Very mild flavor low salt etc.

 Prepared for the worst, got about the best it gets.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I can’t stand salt in my oatmeal, but a lot of places around here cook it with salt.  So the only place I eat oatmeal is at home.

_Grits_, OTOH, are supposed to be salty & buttery. But I’m mildly allergic to corn, so I cant have that as often as I’d like...especially in the current situation.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hmmm...maybe breakfast for dinner tonight.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Hmmm...maybe breakfast for dinner tonight.




 Done that a few times

Checking my daily news.









						Coronavirus: How New Zealand relied on science and empathy
					

New Zealand's virus response was early, strict and compassionate - and it's seeing results.



					www.bbc.com
				




We're popular today.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/20/female-world-leaders-hailed-voices-reason-amid-coronavirus-chaos/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_femaleleaders-515pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans&itid=hp_hp-top-table-main_femaleleaders-515pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
		


 Washington Post as well.


----------



## tomBitonti

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Oatmeal I usually keep simple: made with milk, not water, flavored with sugar & cinnamon.
> 
> How about a sweetener like honey, maple or agave?  Possibly with nuts?



I have mine with walnuts and pecans, and currants. Or replacing the nuts with pumpkin seeds or slivered almonds to mix things up.  I may add honey or salt eventually.  I’d like to try dried blueberries but those are expensive.
Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Umbran

tomBitonti said:


> Or replacing the nuts with ....slivered almonds..




Replacing the nuts with... nuts?

I'm a half-milk, half water kind of guy.  Raisins and brown sugar, or whatever other dried fruit we have in the house.  A bit of jam if dried fruit isn't available.  Just a pinch of salt - without it, the result tastes a bit... flat and tinny.


----------



## Eltab

Being a lousy cook, I let Quaker Oats flavor my oatmeal.  Maple & Brown Sugar is my favorite, broken up with Apple Cinnamon or (rarely) Peaches & Cream.  If they offer a seasonal flavor I'll try a box of that, whatever it happens to be.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Put a handful of craisins in the water before heating it up, no salt. All you need.


----------



## Hussar

I like to cut up apples and raisins in my oatmeal.  

I do miss Rice Krispies though.  Can't get them here.  Breakfast cereal in Japan sucks.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> I like to cut up apples and raisins in my oatmeal.
> 
> I do miss Rice Krispies though.  Can't get them here.  Breakfast cereal in Japan sucks.




 Are they the same as rice bubble? Puffed rice iirc.






 Ricies, Cornflakes Oats, Weetbix. 

 I''ve got a lot of powdered milk to use....

 1 death today, new cases are down to 5. 3 weeks of lockdown left.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Here is a microbiologist’s take on those reports of asymptomatic Covid 19 carriers. The lowdown? The issue has been horribly overblown, and there aren’t many reported cases at all:









						Siouxsie Wiles: Just how widespread is Covid-19 in people with no symptoms?
					

Our brains can play tricks on us.



					thespinoff.co.nz


----------



## Zardnaar

Mikeythorn said:


> Here is a microbiologist’s take on those reports of asymptomatic Covid 19 carriers. The lowdown? The issue has been horribly overblown, and there aren’t many reported cases at all:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Siouxsie Wiles: Just how widespread is Covid-19 in people with no symptoms?
> 
> 
> Our brains can play tricks on us.
> 
> 
> 
> thespinoff.co.nz




 Not overly familiar with that website. 

  There's a lot of sensationalist articles out there. I've been using the BBC/Reuters for international stuff and RNZ for more official NZ stuff.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Zardnaar said:


> Not overly familiar with that website.
> 
> There's a lot of sensationalist articles out there. I've been using the BBC/Reuters for international stuff and RNZ for more official NZ stuff.



The Spinoff’s coverage of Covid-19 has been brilliant. Especially Dr Wiles’ stuff, and Toby Morris’ graphical representations of data. But also their daily data analyses.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mikeythorn said:


> The Spinoff’s coverage of Covid-19 has been brilliant. Especially Dr Wiles’ stuff, and Toby Morris’ graphical representations of data. But also their daily data analyses.




 There's a guy on Reddit in r/Newzealand doing that as well.


----------



## Sadras

Well I have been using this guy, since he seems to put it all into perspective. Seems @Hussar was right a while back about the numbers.

At least there are many silver linings - got to spend more time with my wife and pets, more D&D time and catching up on some good series and movies.


----------



## FrogReaver

I thought this was interesting:

worldometer info



> *Changes in United States Data following the new CDC guidelines on "Case" and "Death" definition*
> Following new CDC guidelines: "*As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include *both confirmed and *probable cases and deaths*. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.
> 
> A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19. A *probable case or death *is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii) meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19" [source]
> 
> This change is a* further example* *of one of the many reasons why the label "confirmed cases" *(used by some to designate total cases) *is incorrect *(see *definitions* for more details). The US CDC (and Worldometer) has always used the label "Total Cases." Canada is another example where the "*total number includes* publicly reported confirmed and* probable cases* [source]
> 
> On April 14, *New York City *reported *3,778 additional deaths* that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the *death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” *or an equivalent" [source].


----------



## Imaculata

Well, these people seem reasonable... Yikes!


----------



## Sadras

Imaculata said:


> Well, these people seem reasonable... Yikes!




What are you talking about? It is definitely an improvement. The original slogan was certain death whereas now COVID-19's lethality is based on probable infections and deaths, miscounts and skewed statistical models.


----------



## Azzy

Imaculata said:


> Well, these people seem reasonable... Yikes!



They want their freedumb.


----------



## FrogReaver

How about someone do something about all the politics in this thread?  Is that too much to ask?


----------



## Lem23

That's not politics, that's just basic stupidity being shown.


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> Well, these people seem reasonable... Yikes!




*Mod Note:*

Can we please not get into mocking people?  Thanks.


----------



## FrogReaver

Lem23 said:


> That's not politics, that's just basic stupidity being shown.




And here is the problem. When a group is making a political protest and you call that group stupid then you’ve entered into the realm of the political.


----------



## Lem23

When people decde that the important thing to do in an epidemic is to gather in large groups and demand thatsocial distancing comes to an end, that's not a political statement, that's a statement of complete idiocy and disdain for the health of themselves and anyone they come into contact with.


----------



## Sadras

Lem23 said:


> When people decde that the important thing to do in an epidemic is to gather in large groups and demand thatsocial distancing comes to an end, that's not a political statement, that's a statement of complete idiocy and disdain for the health of themselves and anyone they come into contact with.




Perhaps the gripe is not so much about social distancing but the lockdown itself. Not everyone agrees with the measures taken by their governments, some do not believe COVID-19 should be considered a pandemic. People in general protest things all the time for one reason or another. We haven't changed that much, pandemic or otherwise.


----------



## Istbor

Sadras said:


> Perhaps the gripe is not so much about social distancing but the lockdown itself. Not everyone agrees with the measures taken by their governments, some do not believe COVID-19 should be considered a pandemic. People in general protest things all the time for one reason or another. We haven't changed that much, pandemic or otherwise.




I am really glad that all of these medical professionals are taking to the streets with their belief that this shouldn't be a pandemic.


----------



## Lem23

Sadras said:


> , some do not believe COVID-19 should be considered a pandemic.




Yes, and those people are idiots, irrespective of whatever politics they espouse.


----------



## Sadras

Istbor said:


> I am really glad that all of these medical professionals are taking to the streets with their belief that this shouldn't be a pandemic.




Plenty of independent medical professionals online provide opposing views if you are able to find them given youtube's new policy of stifling opposing views. One should also not forget the moratorium on medical professionals working at government hospitals from speeking publically - failure to abide could cost them their jobs.


----------



## Sadras

Lem23 said:


> Yes, and those people are idiots, irrespective of whatever politics they espouse.




This is not helpful discourse.


----------



## Lem23

Sadras said:


> Plenty of independent medical professionals online provide opposing views if you are able to find them given youtube's new policy of stifling opposing views. One should also not forget the moratorium on medical professionals working at government hospitals from speeking publically - failure to abide could cost them their jobs.




I'm sorry, but this is complete bollocks, and dangerous to boot. If you (general you, I assume you personally aren't such an idiot) don't think this is a pandemic, that coronavius kills, and that lockdown and social distancing should end, then you're going to be directly responsible for death on a large scale. That's not just idiocy when that opinion continues after being told otherwise, that's wilful stupidity that endangers actual human lives, and even more trrible, you're risking the lives of your friends and loved ones, and will be reponsible for their deaths. Anyone that thinks that way should be ashamed of themselves.


----------



## Sadras

Lem23 said:


> I'm sorry, but this is complete bollocks, and dangerous to boot. If you (general you, I assume you personally aren't such an idiot) don't think this is a pandemic, that coronavius kills, and that lockdown and social distancing should end, then you're going to be directly responsible for death on a large scale. That's not just idiocy when that opinion continues after being told otherwise, that's wilful stupidity that endangers actual human lives, and even more trrible, you're risking the lives of your friends and loved ones, and will be reponsible for their deaths. Anyone that thinks that way should be ashamed of themselves.




The problem with this that in general people do not trust the same sources of information.

EDIT: Especially when those same sources ensures all dissenting views are "stamped out". Authoritarian nations get a bad rap for this kind of behaviour.


----------



## Lem23

Sadras said:


> The problem with this that in general people do not trust the same sources of information.




If only there were several groups of highly trained people who specialise in this, have worked on it all their lives, have conducted research into similar viruses and pandemics, and have experience working with similar cases. And if only they had some kind of common agreement on this. And if only we had a definition of the word epidemic, and data to show whether coronavirus fits that description or not.

Man, if only, eh?


----------



## Deset Gled

Sadras said:


> This is not helpful discourse.




You may be more polite that Lem about, but trying to make some claim that this isn't a pandemic and that there's some kind of disagreement in the medical community about the severity of COVID19 is much less helpful discourse than anything than you might find mildly insulting.  I'd go as far as to say that what you're selling is downright dangerous.


----------



## Sadras

Lem23 said:


> If only there were several groups of highly trained people who specialise in this, have worked on it all their lives, have conducted research into similar viruses and pandemics, and have experience working with similar cases. And if only they had some kind of common agreement on this. And if only we had a definition of the word epidemic, and data to show whether coronavirus fits that description or not.
> 
> Man, if only, eh?




You act as if there is only one voice in all this when I have clearly provided others in the link and I have reflected on censorship which exists on this topic. In South Africa 19 doctors today signed an open letter to the nation's president requesting that he end the lockdown.

I suppose both sides can use this_ There are none so blind as those who will not see._


----------



## FrozenNorth

Sadras said:


> Plenty of independent medical professionals online provide opposing views if you are able to find them given youtube's new policy of stifling opposing views. One should also not forget the moratorium on medical professionals working at government hospitals from speeking publically - failure to abide could cost them their jobs.



No, I get it.  It is a conspiracy.  The fact that there is no evidence is also part of the conspiracy.

Don’t listen to the epidemiologists, listen to some off-brand video by someone who claims to be a doctor and makes you feel intelligent because of course, you saw through the conspiracy.


----------



## Sadras

Deset Gled said:


> You may be more polite that Lem about, but trying to make some claim that this isn't a pandemic and that there's some kind of disagreement in the medical community about the severity of COVID19 is much less helpful discourse than anything than you might find mildly insulting.  I'd go as far as to say that what you're selling is downright dangerous.




Maybe. What is dangerous though is a worldwide lockdown and censorship on voices.


----------



## Sadras

FrozenNorth said:


> No, I get it.  It is a conspiracy.  The fact that there is no evidence is also part of the conspiracy.
> 
> Don’t listen to the epidemiologists, listen to some off-brand video by someone who claims to be a doctor and makes you feel intelligent because of course, you saw through the conspiracy.




If you want to discuss epidemiologists I suggest you look in Dr Ioannides of Stanford.


----------



## Lem23

Sadras said:


> You act as if there is only one voice in all this when I have clearly provided others in the link and I have reflected on censorship which exists on this topic. In South Africa 19 doctors today signed an open letter to the nation's president requesting that he end the lockdown.




There are almost 37,000 medical doctors in South Africa. I'm sure if I started a petition amongst them that claimed that eating cheese cured cancer, I'd be able to persuade 19 of them to sign it. And that's just medical doctors. In other cases like this, oftentimes the "experts" aren't experts in that field, but are instead doctors in subjects like engineering.

Seriously, if you think that this is all a hoax, you're going to be responsible for the deaths of your loved ones and friends. I can't put it any plainer than that. If you're doing this to troll, go and do it in a 4e thread or something rather than one where actual peoples' lives are at risk. If you seriously believe in the crap you've been spouting, against the vasty overwhleming evidence against your position, then please read up on it. Look at the stats on how many people have died so far, and how many more could be affected. If that doesn't change your mind, then at the very least, please stay away from other people rather than put their lives at risk. This may be some weird philosophical hill that you're willing to metaphorically die on for whatever insane reason you've come to this through, but there's an actual, literal, mounting number of dead people, and a lot more people who are likely to die before this is over. Don't add to it.


----------



## Sadras

FrozenNorth said:


> No, I get it.  It is a conspiracy.  The fact that there is no evidence is also part of the conspiracy.
> 
> Don’t listen to the epidemiologists, listen to some off-brand video by someone who claims to be a doctor and makes you feel intelligent because of course, you saw through the conspiracy.




How about the open letter to Chancellor Dr Angela Merkel by Dr Sucharit Bhakdi, Professor Emeritus of Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz.


----------



## Lem23

Sadras said:


> Maybe. What is dangerous though is a worldwide lockdown and censorship on voices.




Are you naughty word kidding? 

Jesus.


----------



## Sadras

Lem23 said:


> There are almost 37,000 medical doctors in South Africa. I'm sure if I started a petition amongst them that claimed that eating cheese cured cancer, I'd be able to persuade 19 of them to sign it. And that's just medical doctors. In other cases like this, oftentimes the "experts" aren't experts in that field, but are instead doctors in subjects like engineering.




There are entire countries that have adopted social distancing but have not opted for lockdown. Is that because all the doctors in those countries aren't so-called 'experts'?

EDIT: Why is it that doctors with dissenting/opposing views get questioned about their credentials but not one voice is raised by MSM regarding the qualifications of Bill Gates?


----------



## Umbran

*Mod Note*
Folks,

This thread exists because there is a worldwide public health crisis in progress, that impacts every one of our users.  It has claimed over 170,000 lives worldwide as of this writing.  As of last week, it was killing more people per week in the US than either heart disease or cancer, making it, for the moment, the leading cause of death in the country.  This has been the death toll despite the distancing measures taken.  Without those measures, the death toll would be far, far worse.  

If you want to dispute any of these facts, it is time for you to leave this thread, or any others related to covid-19.

There's a bunch of stuff people normally do that drastically increases the spread of this disease, and thus the risk of death to a great many people. Gathering in large groups at this time, or engaging in "business as usual" at this time is a major public health hazard.  If you dispute this, it is time for you to leave this thread.

Running out in the middle of busy, fast moving traffic will get you killed, and likely cause high-speed car collisions, possibly hurting or killing many people.  It would be dumb to do this, and you should not be generally be allowed to do this, because of the impact on others.  This is not a political statement, it is acknowledgement of a reality, and risks.  If you cannot agree to this basic statement, then it is time for you to leave this thread.

As far as this discussion is concerned, this logic applies to large gatherings of people at the current time.  Calling it dumb is not politics.  It is an acknowledgement of the risks involved.  If that's a problem for you, it is time for you to leave this thread.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

[Oops! posted as mod posted. I can delete if this violates the mod?]

I've seen a couple reports (some posted upthread) that coronavirus infections could be far more widely spread-- and therefore much less lethal--  than initially thought. I've seen critiques of some of these referencing the questionable reliability of the tests, but even so,  a more than order of magnitude difference from initial estimates is a pretty eye-popping claim.

But my question is: 
*How does this claim square with how the thing has exploded in NYC or Italy, and very clearly overwhelmed medical systems?* How does a new virus that is "only as dangerous as flu" generate such massive numbers of critical patients and deaths?

My point is just this: even if the lethality number is lower than anticipated, there still appears to be _something _about it that makes it worth worrying about. (Sorry, I have exactly zero of the proper vocabulary or knowledge to ask these questions more clearly.)


----------



## Lem23

If it were only Bill Gates saying something, then that would be one thing. With all the world's authorities agreed on the danger of this virus, though, your point is compelte crap, just like the dangerous nonsense you've been peddling here.

Some people on this forum have been grappling with coronavirus. Some are at risk of losing loved ones and friends. A very close friend of mine just lost his daughter (a nurse) to coronavirus. You do realise you're deletediing allover the grief of people like him, right? That the crap you're spouting has an actual effect on the world, and that you, directly, will be responsible for large numbers of deaths if you continue with this idiocy?

Get a deleted grip. Imbecile.

And yes, feel free to report me. At least me aptly describing your deleted ludicrous bulldeleted is only going to lead to your poor feelings being hurt and me possibly getting banned from a roleplaying forum. Your bollocks is getting actual people killed.


----------



## Deset Gled

Sadras said:


> If you want to discuss epidemiologists I suggest you look in Dr Ioannides of Stanford.




Dr. Ioannides has made a lot of statements that we are making choices based on limited information about COVID, which is apparent to anyone who has been paying the slightest bit of attention to the availability of testing for the disease.

More importantly, he thinks it's a pandemic:

"The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from approximately 1 in 6,000 in Germany to 1 in 420 in Spain. "

"Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic. "









						Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters
					

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the relative risk of COVID-19 death in people <65 years old versus older individuals in the general population, to provide estimates of absolute risk of COVID-19 death at the population level, and to understand what proportion of COVID-19 deaths occur in non-elderly people...




					www.medrxiv.org
				




I'm not going to bother looking up any more information for you unless you actually provide evidence for your position instead of just spouting random names.

EDIT: Sorry, didn't see Umbran's post before I posted this.  I'll stop and will remove this post if requested.


----------



## FrozenNorth

Sadras said:


> If you want to discuss epidemiologists I suggest you look in Dr Ioannides of Stanford.



I read him.  On March 17, he stated that the pandemic may have been overblown.  According to his estimate based on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship, there could be only 10,000 deaths in the US, and therefore that these deaths should be weighed against the effect of a longterm lockdown.

As of today, April 21st, there are 42,900 deaths in the US and the rate is not currently dropping. Dr Ionnidis was mistaken.  It happens.

I discovered all this with a 5-minute Google search.  So the question is, why are you spreading out of date misinformation?  Why do you care so much about this that you will argue that protective measures are overblown, but care so little that you won’t verify the information you provide?


----------



## Sadras

Lem23 said:


> If it were only Bill Gates saying something, then that would be one thing. With all the world's authorities agreed on the danger of this virus, though, your point is compelte crap, just like the dangerous nonsense you've been peddling here.
> 
> Some people on this forum have been grappling with coronavirus. Some are at risk of losing loved ones and friends. A very close friend of mine just lost his daughter (a nurse) to coronavirus. You do realise you're shittng all over the grief of people like him, right? That the crap you're spouting has an actual effect on the world, and that you, directly, will be responsible for large numbers of deaths if you continue with this idiocy?
> 
> Get a naughty word grip. Imbecile.
> 
> And yes, feel free to report me. At least me aptly describing your naughty word ludicrous naughty word is only going to lead to your poor feelings being hurt and me possibly getting banned from a roleplaying forum. Your bollocks is getting actual people killed.




I never report I do not think that helps discourse. You and some others here misunderstand me.
I never said that COVID-19 does not exist.  I never said that a COVID-19 infection cannot lead to death. I also never compared it to the common flu. 

My issue is with the stifling of opposing/challenging views - whether they come from epidemiologists, microbiologists, other doctors or non-doctors. Do you take issue with this?


----------



## Deset Gled

Sadras said:


> Not everyone agrees with the measures taken by their governments, *some do not believe COVID-19 should be considered a pandemic*.






Sadras said:


> My issue is with the stifling of opposing/challenging views - whether they come from epidemiologists, microbiologists, other doctors or non-doctors. *Do you take issue with this?*




There is a difference between questioning authority and questioning if a global pandemic is actually a pandemic.  Many of us here know people who have fallen ill or even died as a result of COVID19.  There is no question that the threat is real.  You have crossed the line from legitimate discussion to espousing falsehoods that are literally dangerous.

_Yes.  I take issue with this._


----------



## Morrus

Sadras said:


> Maybe. What is dangerous though is a worldwide lockdown and censorship on voices.



I'm going to be even clearer. DO NOT post in the thread again. I am not going to permit my forum to be used to spread dangerous misinformation which could harm people.


----------



## Imaculata

Umbran said:


> *Mod Note:*
> 
> Can we please not get into mocking people?  Thanks.




I wasn't mocking them. I was pointing out how scary it is to see people defending such a dangerous idea. All it seems to take is a couple of right leaning news anchors to yell "_They are taking away your freedoms_", to get dozens of people rattled to defend an irrational position.

It seems an increasing number of people are convinced that COVID19 is either a hoax, or some evil democrat plot to bash the president. The fact that every country in the world is struggling with thousands of deaths right now, seems to be conveniently ignored by some of these people.

And that worries me a lot.


----------



## Sadras

nvm


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> I wasn't mocking them.




*Mod Note:*
Per The Rules, do not argue with moderation in-thread.  If you feel a need to discuss it, please take it to a private message.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Point of info: “pandemic” has a specific definition.  The situation we are in with 
Covid-19 meets it,


----------



## Dannyalcatraz




----------



## Morrus

Human trials on the U.K. vaccine start on Thuraday.









						Coronavirus: UK vaccine to be trialled on people from Thursday — Sky News
					

Clinical trials of a coronavirus vaccine will begin on people from Thursday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said.




					apple.news


----------



## MoonSong

Dannyalcatraz said:


>



O.O° Ok, I'm shutting in inside the dresser and never going out again...


----------



## FrogReaver

Sadras said:


> This is not helpful discourse.




And just as importantly what he said was against the forum rules


----------



## Eltab

Theo R Cwithin said:


> [Oops! posted as mod posted. I can delete if this violates the mod?]
> 
> I've seen a couple reports (some posted upthread) that coronavirus infections could be far more widely spread-- and therefore much less lethal--  than initially thought. I've seen critiques of some of these referencing the questionable reliability of the tests, but even so,  a more than order of magnitude difference from initial estimates is a pretty eye-popping claim.
> 
> But my question is:
> *How does this claim square with how the thing has exploded in NYC or Italy, and very clearly overwhelmed medical systems?* How does a new virus that is "only as dangerous as flu" generate such massive numbers of critical patients and deaths?
> 
> My point is just this: even if the lethality number is lower than anticipated, there still appears to be _something _about it that makes it worth worrying about. (Sorry, I have exactly zero of the proper vocabulary or knowledge to ask these questions more clearly.)



I'm going to use RPG terms for a moment, hoping to communicate by analogy, not be flippant.
If you are the guy who rolls a '1' on your Corona Save, yes it is dangerous.  If you have any or many of the several risk factors that give you a penalty to your roll, yes it is dangerous.  But some people are looking at it as "Roll better than a '1' on d%?  Yah, hand me the dice.  I can take those odds."  If you and your social circle are all in the 'young healthy' demographic, you aren't a threat to them.  If you think you got it earlier at the "nasty flu bug" level, past experience leads to the conclusion you are Corona-resistant.
All of this may turn out to be false later on.  But right now we have some knowledge to work with and some gaps where we have to 'rule-of-thumb' it and take our best guess (as in the Star Trek IV scene).

The lockdowns and stay-at-home orders are A tool to get a handle on the situation, not THE tool, nor THE ONLY tool, to get a handle on the situation.  To borrow from Jim Collins' book "Good to Great", we need to find a 'both-and' answer, not an 'either-or' answer.  How can we be safe and get work done?  How can we get more people out to be a positive help to relief efforts, to supply chains, to the 1001 things that have to be done, be reinforcements for exhausted personnel?  Instead of telling them that they are dead weight, a danger to everybody around them, useless, unwanted?

My own fear is that the discussion on 'what to do and how to do it?' will turn into a "Who's in charge here?!" contest with Smart People and Trained Professionals ignoring or denouncing all concerns coming from outside their own sphere of knowledge.
We just saw in MI a silly mistake that blew up into a shouting match, when the Governor forbade the sale of garden seeds just as planting season has arrived.  Mother Nature runs on her own schedule, not ours, and getting in the way of that never ends well.  Based on experience with other diseases, I posit the hypothesis that eating fresh fruits and vegetables are an immunobooster and will help slow down the spread by depriving Corona of easy victims.  Lift that ban and encourage otherwise-unoccupied folks to plant gardens; it is something.

There is another ticking timer running in the background that worries me. Weimar Germany's hyperinflation began when the government, for reasons that seemed good at the time, told millions of workers to stay home from work and collect unemployment.  You can read a history hook to see what happened next.  Two years later, money was worthless and everybody was poor. That length of time is too close to "maybe 12 - 18 months to a vaccine, if everything goes well" for my comfort.

The US response to COVID so far has been marked by being taken by surprise at the beginning and flailing at the symptoms since.  Defensive and even passive - fortress mentality - a sense of "hope it will pass" and "somebody else has to do something about it".  I want to see a serious counter-attack on the germs.  Push will all due speed towards a vaccine but having one is not a precondition for action, drugs that work made available for doctors to prescribe, factories Stateside converted or rehabilitated to make the gear we use every day and the biotech we need for research (and treatments and cures and Corona-resistant-boosters).  A real plan to deploy all that idle manpower as an aid in the fight; they may not go back to the old job but doing something that says "I'm a part of this too".  And importantly, something like FDR's ringing clarion call the day after Pearl Harbor: "...with the unbounded determination of our people, until we gain the inevitable victory, so help us God. "


----------



## FrogReaver

Theo R Cwithin said:


> [Oops! posted as mod posted. I can delete if this violates the mod?]
> 
> I've seen a couple reports (some posted upthread) that coronavirus infections could be far more widely spread-- and therefore much less lethal--  than initially thought. I've seen critiques of some of these referencing the questionable reliability of the tests, but even so,  a more than order of magnitude difference from initial estimates is a pretty eye-popping claim.
> 
> But my question is:
> *How does this claim square with how the thing has exploded in NYC or Italy, and very clearly overwhelmed medical systems?* How does a new virus that is "only as dangerous as flu" generate such massive numbers of critical patients and deaths?
> 
> My point is just this: even if the lethality number is lower than anticipated, there still appears to be _something _about it that makes it worth worrying about. (Sorry, I have exactly zero of the proper vocabulary or knowledge to ask these questions more clearly.)




Was New York medical system actually overwhelmed?  All the evidence I'm seeing is that it didn't actually get to that point (thanks to social distancing of course)


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Eltab said:


> I'm going to use RPG terms for a moment, hoping to communicate by analogy, not be flippant.
> If you are the guy who rolls a '1' on your Corona Save, yes it is dangerous.  If you have any or many of the several risk factors that give you a penalty to your roll, yes it is dangerous.  But some people are looking at it as "Roll better than a '1' on d%?  Yah, hand me the dice.  I can take those odds."  If you and your social circle are all in the 'young healthy' demographic, you aren't a threat to them.  If you think you got it earlier at the "nasty flu bug" level, past experience leads to the conclusion you are Corona-resistant.
> All of this may turn out to be false later on.  But right now we have some knowledge to work with and some gaps where we have to 'rule-of-thumb' it and take our best guess (as in the Star Trek IV scene).
> 
> The lockdowns and stay-at-home orders are A tool to get a handle on the situation, not THE tool, nor THE ONLY tool, to get a handle on the situation.  To borrow from Jim Collins' book "Good to Great", we need to find a 'both-and' answer, not an 'either-or' answer.  How can we be safe and get work done?  How can we get more people out to be a positive help to relief efforts, to supply chains, to the 1001 things that have to be done, be reinforcements for exhausted personnel?  Instead of telling them that they are dead weight, a danger to everybody around them, useless, unwanted?
> 
> My own fear is that the discussion on 'what to do and how to do it?' will turn into a "Who's in charge here?!" contest with Smart People and Trained Professionals ignoring or denouncing all concerns coming from outside their own sphere of knowledge.
> We just saw in MI a silly mistake that blew up into a shouting match, when the Governor forbade the sale of garden seeds just as planting season has arrived.  Mother Nature runs on her own schedule, not ours, and getting in the way of that never ends well.  Based on experience with other diseases, I posit the hypothesis that eating fresh fruits and vegetables are an immunobooster and will help slow down the spread by depriving Corona of easy victims.  Lift that ban and encourage otherwise-unoccupied folks to plant gardens; it is something.
> 
> There is another ticking timer running in the background that worries me. Weimar Germany's hyperinflation began when the government, for reasons that seemed good at the time, told millions of workers to stay home from work and collect unemployment.  You can read a history hook to see what happened next.  Two years later, money was worthless and everybody was poor. That length of time is too close to "maybe 12 - 18 months to a vaccine, if everything goes well" for my comfort.
> 
> The US response to COVID so far has been marked by being taken by surprise at the beginning and flailing at the symptoms since.  Defensive and even passive - fortress mentality - a sense of "hope it will pass" and "somebody else has to do something about it".  I want to see a serious counter-attack on the germs.  Push will all due speed towards a vaccine but having one is not a precondition for action, drugs that work made available for doctors to prescribe, factories Stateside converted or rehabilitated to make the gear we use every day and the biotech we need for research (and treatments and cures and Corona-resistant-boosters).  A real plan to deploy all that idle manpower as an aid in the fight; they may not go back to the old job but doing something that says "I'm a part of this too".  And importantly, something like FDR's ringing clarion call the day after Pearl Harbor: "...with the unbounded determination of our people, until we gain the inevitable victory, so help us God. "



Thanks, that's a very thorough overview of the economic concerns. And believe me, as someone who was caught unawares in between jobs and homes by this thing, I'm more than a little stressed about how business fares in coming months, if only for personal reasons.

My question, though, has to do with the medical issue, not economic or policy ones. Specifically, how do these reports that Covid are less lethal than originally thought square with how the pandemic has unfolded in places like NYC or Italy, where the disease slammed the systems in place, quite _unlike_ seasonal flu? 

If those high infection rates are correct, those numbers are suggesting that it's not especially dangerous, yet it also causes big spikes of critical cases? I just don't understand how that can be, and I'm curious to hear an explanation for it.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

FrogReaver said:


> Was New York medical system actually overwhelmed?  All the evidence I'm seeing is that it didn't actually get to that point (thanks to social distancing of course)



I haven't followed it too closely, but my understanding is that at least the mortuaries in NYC were overflowing. That suggests to me that something deadly is afoot.
As for Italy, every report I heard out of there was very grim.


----------



## FrogReaver

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Thanks, that's a very thorough overview of the economic concerns. And believe me, as someone who was caught unawares in between jobs and homes by this thing, I'm more than a little stressed about how business fares in coming months, if only for personal reasons.
> 
> My question, though, has to do with the medical issue, not economic or policy ones. Specifically, how do these reports that Covid are less lethal than originally thought square with how the pandemic has unfolded in places like NYC or Italy, where the disease slammed the systems in place, quite _unlike_ seasonal flu?
> 
> If those high infection rates are correct, those numbers are suggesting that it's not especially dangerous, yet it also causes big spikes of critical cases? I just don't understand how that can be, and I'm curious to hear an explanation for it.




To me it would make sense that the only way New York could keep it's numbers of deaths and cases as high for as long as they have is if alot of people are infected and don't know it and they infect other people that don't know it, etc.  The good news is that they are a little below R0.  The bad news is that their number of new cases are declining much less rapidly than anticipated.  I see no reason why if New York City opened up tomorrow that they wouldn't pick up where they left off.  Alot of that may be population density though.  Which may be why we aren't seeing it spread like expected in small town America.  

Just my guesses.


----------



## FrogReaver

Looks like the U.S. is on pace for the deadliest day of coronavirus so far.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sadras said:


> The problem with this that in general people do not trust the same sources of information.
> 
> EDIT: Especially when those same sources ensures all dissenting views are "stamped out". Authoritarian nations get a bad rap for this kind of behaviour.




 How about facts then?

 NZ has one of the strictist lockdowns. Our curve was the same as everyone else's but then it flattened. 









						Coronavirus: Six new cases and one new death from Covid-19
					

Another death at from Rosewood Rest Home cluster brings toll to 14 alongside six new confirmed cases of coronavirus.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 We have 1 death today with 6 new cases. 

 Death rate is less than 3 per million. 

 8 of those deaths are from the same rest home.  All of them are over 70.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

FrogReaver said:


> I see no reason why if New York City opened up tomorrow that they wouldn't pick up where they left off. Alot of that may be population density though. Which may be why we aren't seeing it spread like expected in small town America.



Yup yup... Population density and contagious disease are a bad, bad combination. I think commuting has a lot to do with it, too. So even rural areas where few people _live_ are still at risk if there's a lot of traffic through, eg. for the agriculture or energy industries.

I'm living in small town Texas myself, and at least in my little neck of the woods, most everyone seems to be taking social distancing pretty seriously, even if there's a little grumbling. I honestly think that has a fair bit to do with the limited spread. But starting yesterday, the governor has decided to let things open up slowly over the next few weeks, so we'll see how it goes. That will be the test, I guess.


----------



## Zardnaar

You probably want stuff in green box.





__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com
				




International stuff I use BBC, Reuters. 

 Red box.

 Nonsense damaging to public discource.
Propaganda/misleading.

 Contains inaccurate/fabricated information.

 So yeah Palmer Report might not be the most reliable source.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> You probably want stuff in green box.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Redirect Notice
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> International stuff I use BBC, Reuters.
> 
> Red box.
> 
> Nonsense damaging to public discource.
> Propaganda/misleading.
> 
> Contains inaccurate/fabricated information.
> 
> So yeah Palmer Report might not be the most reliable source.




Too bad the bias that went into making that chart is front and center.


----------



## FrogReaver

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Yup yup... Population density and contagious disease are a bad, bad combination. I think commuting has a lot to do with it, too. So even rural areas where few people _live_ are still at risk if there's a lot of traffic through, eg. for the agriculture or energy industries.
> 
> I'm living in small town Texas myself, and at least in my little neck of the woods, most everyone seems to be taking social distancing pretty seriously, even if there's a little grumbling. I honestly think that has a fair bit to do with the limited spread. But starting yesterday, the governor has decided to let things open up slowly over the next few weeks, so we'll see how it goes. That will be the test, I guess.




Tennessee and GA and Florida are pretty much doing the same or will be by start of May.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

FrogReaver said:


> Tennessee and GA and Florida are pretty much doing the same or will be by start of May.



Yep. And I _think_ they're all planning to do it by different priorities and schedules? So hopefully, at a minimum, those openings will provide some helpful data for other states, irrespective of individual opinions on the topic.
Like I said: Those openings are the test. Ready or not, here they come.


----------



## Zardnaar

Second supermarket trip in 5 weeks. One in one out.

 Picked the wrong day.  Oh well.


----------



## FrogReaver

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Yep. And I _think_ they're all planning to do it by different priorities and schedules? So hopefully, at a minimum, those openings will provide some helpful data for other states, irrespective of individual opinions on the topic.
> Like I said: Those openings are the test. Ready or not, here they come.




With the delay between how long it will take cases to ramp up and then into deaths - i'm not so sure the data will get there fast enough.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

FrogReaver said:


> With the delay between how long it will take cases to ramp up and then into deaths - i'm not so sure the data will get there fast enough.



That is a disturbingly good point.


----------



## Eltab

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Thanks, that's a very thorough overview of the economic concerns. And believe me, as someone who was caught unawares in between jobs and homes by this thing, I'm more than a little stressed about how business fares in coming months, if only for personal reasons.
> 
> My question, though, has to do with the medical issue, not economic or policy ones. Specifically, how do these reports that Covid are less lethal than originally thought square with how the pandemic has unfolded in places like NYC or Italy, where the disease slammed the systems in place, quite _unlike_ seasonal flu?
> 
> If those high infection rates are correct, those numbers are suggesting that it's not especially dangerous, yet it also causes big spikes of critical cases? I just don't understand how that can be, and I'm curious to hear an explanation for it.



You're welcome, and thank you for the compliment.

The gaps in our knowledge include things that ought to be Top Priority to find out.  One such is the answer to the question "How many people have / had COVID?". So far our testing has been limited and centered around people who come to the hospital.  Naturally this skews the data towards high death rate from infection.  Two studies reporting last weekend went out into cities - one in CA, one in MA - and asked passersby at random to give a blood sample for a survey.  The CA survey found 85 times as many people exposed as they expected.  The MA group found almost 1/3 of the samples had exposure.  The true number of exposed people in the US is likely in the tens of millions (my extrapolation), but the vast majority are no-symptom or "nasty flu" level.  But even if only .001 (one-tenth of one percent) of the total need intensive care, that is 10,000 people in peril of death.

It would be interesting - and likely scary - to build a chart comparing total US cases, deaths, and mortality chance for several diseases, as of this year or last year (whichever has compiled data): common cold, flu, COVID-19, other coronaviruses (if known), West Nile virus, the Spanish Flu in 1919, and the cholera wave of the 1830s.  Also Ebola in W Africa 2016 and the Black Death sweeping Europe 1347-1350.


----------



## Imaculata

Theo R Cwithin said:


> I haven't followed it too closely, but my understanding is that at least the mortuaries in NYC were overflowing. That suggests to me that something deadly is afoot.
> As for Italy, every report I heard out of there was very grim.




Italy had daily military convoys helping out with carrying all the coffins. Yes, it was indeed very grim.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> Italy had daily military convoys helping out with carrying all the coffins. Yes, it was indeed very grim.




 Italy and Spain had staff bail in the old folks homes. 

 Per capita NY state is worse. Sweden's also not doing that well. Turns out business as usual was a bad idea.

  Down side of lockdowns though. 









						Coronavirus: World risks 'biblical' famines due to pandemic - UN
					

The number of people facing starvation could almost double, the World Food Programme warns.



					www.bbc.com
				




 Even if you flatten the curve someone else dies. 30 million starve to death. 

 Bad, worse, awful pick one.


----------



## Zardnaar

3 weeks ago. Sweden lost that bet.

1/4/2020








						Sweden's laissez-faire conronavirus strategy alarms some scientists
					

"The material presented by the public health authorities is weak, even embarrassing," said one professor who is critical of Sweden's strategy.




					www.google.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> 3 weeks ago. Sweden lost that bet.
> 
> 1/4/2020
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sweden's laissez-faire conronavirus strategy alarms some scientists
> 
> 
> "The material presented by the public health authorities is weak, even embarrassing," said one professor who is critical of Sweden's strategy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.com



Sweden is taking a risky path.  Supposedly, they’re trying to get enough Swedes exposed to develop herd immunity.  Problem is, that’s a tactic that works best with vaccines.  That’s because the more contagious the disease, the higher the percentage of your populace needs to be exposed or immunized to achieve the goal of herd immunity.  That’s why the USA has seen outbreaks of measles since our MMR vax rate dipped into the low 80s.

Right now, Covid-19’s R0 is estimated at 3.3 or so, slightly lower than Mumps. (See below.)  If you need 60-70% (guesstimating) of your population to be exposed to get herd immunity to Covid-19, and your country of 4M+ people is currently registering a death rate of 10%, that translates into a few hundred thousand dead.

If I’m not mistaken, that’s a formula England considered and quickly rethought.















						What is Herd Immunity | NOVA |PBS
					

When enough people are immune to a disease, the "herd" protects those who cannot safely receive a vaccine.



					www.pbs.org


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sweden is taking a risky path.  Supposedly, they’re trying to get enough Swedes exposed to develop herd immunity.  Problem is, that’s a tactic that works best with vaccines.  That’s because the more contagious the disease, the higher the percentage of your populace needs to be exposed or immunized to achieve the goal of herd immunity.  That’s why the USA has seen outbreaks of measles since our MMR vax rate dipped into the low 80s.
> 
> Right now, Covid-19’s R0 is estimated at 3.3 or so, slightly lower than Mumps. (See below.)  If you need 60-70% (guesstimating) of your population to be exposed to get herd immunity to Covid-19, and your country of 4M+ people is currently registering a death rate of 10%, that translates into a few hundred thousand dead.
> 
> If I’m not mistaken, that’s a formula England considered and quickly rethought.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 121266
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What is Herd Immunity | NOVA |PBS
> 
> 
> When enough people are immune to a disease, the "herd" protects those who cannot safely receive a vaccine.
> 
> 
> 
> www.pbs.org




 Yeah there deaths per million isn't good.

 They won't hit herd immunity but if they dodge the second wave their approach might look better. 

 At one point per capita they were almost twice as bad as USA.

 More info for NZ
5200 tests daily, roughly 1000/million
1451 cases, 401 active
6 new cases
14 deaths approx 3/million.

 Deliveries to KFC/McDonalds is for Friday drive through only. KFC won't be doing burgers.


----------



## Azzy

Zardnaar said:


> KFC won't be doing burgers.



So, no change then?


----------



## Zardnaar

Azzy said:


> So, no change then?




 They do burgers here. 

 I'm guessing they're doing limited options for drive through.









						Fast food outlets get ready for flood of customers
					

The race for fast food and delivery chains to get ready in time for Tuesday's rush is on - each store putting the work in to get their fridges fully stocked, and their deliveries up and running.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Tuesday. Then in two weeks hopefully something resembling business as usual minus tourists except for the ones stuck here.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Two studies reporting last weekend went out into cities - one in CA, one in MA - and asked passersby at random to give a blood sample for a survey.  The CA survey found 85 times as many people exposed as they expected.  The MA group found almost 1/3 of the samples had exposure.




Citations, please?  Not questioning your honor or anything, but when stuff like this comes around, folks want to look at the thing.


----------



## Azzy

Zardnaar said:


> They do burgers here.



Wow. That's so weird to me as they don't here (or at least in my part of the States).


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sweden is taking a risky path.  Supposedly, they’re trying to get enough Swedes exposed to develop herd immunity.  Problem is, that’s a tactic that works best with vaccines.




Second problem - we don't yet know if natural exposure to the disease actually produces herd immunity for any length of time.  For the flu, immunity (from exposure or vaccine) lasts maybe six months.  For other coronaviruses, immunity varies.  So, this is an extremely risky bet, as they could go through the pain and death and get nothing effective for it.


----------



## Umbran

Azzy said:


> Wow. That's so weird to me as they don't here (or at least in my part of the States).




With so many other fast food burger competitors?  Probably not worth it - burgers will require different equipment in the kitchen just for the burgers...


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> Second problem - we don't yet know if natural exposure to the disease actually produces herd immunity for any length of time.  For the flu, immunity (from exposure or vaccine) lasts maybe six months.  For other coronaviruses, immunity varies.  So, this is an extremely risky bet, as they could go through the pain and death and get nothing effective for it.




the reason we lose flu immunity is because the flu virus mutates quite quickly. If it stayed unmutated our immunity would last much longer.

In reading about common cold vaccines the reason we don’t have one is because there are 50 some strains of common cold floating around.  Some researchers believe the past attempts at vaccines for it were effective for the particular strain they were vaccinating against and that the problem with creating an effective common cold vaccine is more about logistics than the virus or our immune systems.


----------



## Eltab

FrogReaver said:


> the reason we lose flu immunity is because the flu virus mutates quite quickly. If it stayed unmutated our immunity would last much longer.
> 
> In reading about common cold vaccines the reason we don’t have one is because there are 50 some strains of common cold floating around.  Some researchers believe the past attempts at vaccines for it were effective for the particular strain they were vaccinating against and that the problem with creating an effective common cold vaccine is more about logistics than the virus or our immune systems.



One can imagine a doctor telling a parent "Give your child this pill, it's his Common Cold vaccine" and handing over something the size of a granola bar, not a Flintstones Chewable Vitamin.


----------



## Janx

FrogReaver said:


> the reason we lose flu immunity is because the flu virus mutates quite quickly. If it stayed unmutated our immunity would last much longer.
> 
> In reading about common cold vaccines the reason we don’t have one is because there are 50 some strains of common cold floating around.  Some researchers believe the past attempts at vaccines for it were effective for the particular strain they were vaccinating against and that the problem with creating an effective common cold vaccine is more about logistics than the virus or our immune systems.




also, as I read a credible article but can't re-find it, there are zero vaccines for coronaviruses.  It's never been done.

And upper respiratory infections are not ideal candidates for vaccines because your lungs are more like an external facing surface akin to (but not the same as) skin than they are an internal organ where vaccines and all that biomumbo-jumbo operate.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> the reason we lose flu immunity is because the flu virus mutates quite quickly. If it stayed unmutated our immunity would last much longer.




Not necessarily.  Not by a long shot.  That exposure/infection = long immunity is a _myth_.

Infectious diseases interact with our immune systems in various ways.  Not all of them, by a long shot, do so in a way that has use keeping up levels of antibodies that produce immunity for months or years.



> Some researchers believe...




Belief is not a measurement.  Hope is not a strategy.

First, we have to note that "strain" does not equate to "different immune response".  You can have two strains that have the same protein markers for our antibodies to lock onto.  So, "50 strains" does not equate to "need 50 vaccines".

However, for sake of argument, let us assume that there are 50 strains we'd have to tackle separately, and they are all out there. If they create lasing immunity, you should be becoming immune to one strain each time you have a cold!  In the US, in K-12 schools, on average that's probably a couple strains a year - kids are always getting the sniffles.  By the time you are 50, it should be darned near impossible for you to get a cold.

But it isn't.  50-year olds get colds all the time!  That everyone can always seem to catch colds suggests rather strongly that there are significant limits to the immunity coronavirus infection grants.

Edit to add:  Some folks will note that cornoaviruses aren't even the most common cause of colds.  That is correct - rhinoviruses are the more common culprit.  However, even with 90+ serotypes of rhinovirus out there, the argument still holds - if we generally generated lasting immunity to a virus, getting a cold should be difficult by they time you are an adult, because we are _constantly_ exposed to these viruses. 

Ergo, hoping or planning for herd immunity not generated by a vaccine is not wise at this time.


----------



## Deset Gled

In other news, there are regions where organized crime lives up to the "organized" part of their name, and are setting up hotlines and giving out care packages:

Warning - NSFW language used in this address, headline, and article


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

As I mentioned upthread and Umbran just reiterated, post-exposure coronavirus immunity is very variable, lasting years for some and only months for others.  We don’t know yet where Covid-19 falls in the spectrum.


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> Belief is not a measurement.  Hope is not a strategy.
> 
> ...
> 
> Ergo, hoping or planning for herd immunity not generated by a vaccine is not wise at this time.




In general, I agree with your logic.  OTOH, hypotheses and hope are both important things to have.

I'm kind of glad that somebody is trying for herd immunity and testing if it works.  IMNSHO, Sweden is basically taking one for the team here and performing a large scale experiment (admittedly, with a dangerously big sample size).  At least they're getting data.  I'd rather be a part of Sweden's plan (where they at lease have health care) than, let's say, West Virginia's... but I'm happier to be in neither.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> Citations, please?  Not questioning your honor or anything, but when stuff like this comes around, folks want to look at the thing.



Re: "citations"  Are you thinking peer-reviewed articles in a professional journal?  That's more formality than we've had time to go through.  What I have is news articles.  (No links because my web-fu is poor and my mobile device will not cut-and-paste.)  Headlines:


Coronavirus with no symptoms?  Reports suggest many have unknowingly had virus.  By Michelle Farber, the Associated Press
One third of participants in Massachusetts study tested positive for antibodies linked to Coronavirus.  By Peter Farber, Fox News

The second article was published earlier.  The first compiles additional articles (including the CA findings) and appears to contain information from follow-up interviews.  I was not able to find the article on the CA survey which drew my attention.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Re: "citations"  Are you thinking peer-reviewed articles in a professional journal?




I think reputable news sources are sufficient.  There is so much misinformation out there that we really should more actively help each other have more than internet rumors on hand.


----------



## Istbor

Sadras said:


> Plenty of independent medical professionals online provide opposing views if you are able to find them given youtube's new policy of stifling opposing views. One should also not forget the moratorium on medical professionals working at government hospitals from speeking publically - failure to abide could cost them their jobs.



Site these please. As well, I am referring specifically to the current protesters out there gathering up. If you can provide evidence that these groups are consistently made of or backed by relevant medical professionals I am all ears.


----------



## Deset Gled

Istbor said:


> Site these please. As well, I am referring specifically to the current protesters out there gathering up. If you can provide evidence that these groups are consistently made of or backed by relevant medical professionals I am all ears.




I'm guessing you missed it, but Sadras has been dis-invited from posting in this thread, largely as a result of similar unsubstantiated posts.  S/He won't be responding unless you PM them.


----------



## ad_hoc

Deset Gled said:


> In general, I agree with your logic.  OTOH, hypotheses and hope are both important things to have.
> 
> I'm kind of glad that somebody is trying for herd immunity and testing if it works.  IMNSHO, Sweden is basically taking one for the team here and performing a large scale experiment (admittedly, with a dangerously big sample size).  At least they're getting data.  I'd rather be a part of Sweden's plan (where they at lease have health care) than, let's say, West Virginia's... but I'm happier to be in neither.




Sweden now has 1600 cases per million population and 200 deaths per million.

Much higher than Norway or Finland.

In absolute numbers Sweden currently has 1937 deaths compared to Norway's 187 and Finland's 149.

Close to 200 people are currently dying every day.

They made the wrong choice and they should have known better.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Janx said:


> also, as I read a credible article but can't re-find it, there are zero vaccines for coronaviruses.  It's never been done.



I think I mentioned something align those lines.  They believe they were close with SARS, but the disease disappeared, there were several lab accidents and funding dried up before anything concrete developed.

And as I recall, MERS disappeared even faster, but research is ongoing.


----------



## Nagol

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I think I mentioned something align those lines.  They believe they were close with SARS, but the disease disappeared, there were several lab accidents and funding dried up before anything concrete developed.
> 
> And as I recall, MERS disappeared even faster, but research is ongoing.




MERS hasn't vanished.  It's just modestly hard to catch and a primary carrier is camels which tend not to be in day-to-day life in North America..


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Citations, please?  Not questioning your honor or anything, but when stuff like this comes around, folks want to look at the thing.



They were talking about a Stanford study producing those numbers in this LA Times article.








						Hundreds of thousands in L.A. County may have been infected with coronavirus, study finds
					

Hundreds of thousands of L.A. County residents may have been infected with the coronavirus by early April, outpacing total of known cases, report says.




					www.latimes.com
				






> Though the county had reported roughly 1,000 cases in early April, the Stanford researchers estimate the actual number was 48,000 to 81,000.




Related: Covid-19 was killing people in California almost a month before initially believed.  Given its incubation period...








						California says a person who died February 6 had COVID-19, suggesting the first US coronavirus death happened at least 3 weeks earlier than previously thought
					

The US recorded its first coronavirus death on February 28, but new data indicates at least one person died of COVID-19 three weeks prior.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## tomBitonti

Zardnaar said:


> Second supermarket trip in 5 weeks. One in one out.
> 
> Picked the wrong day.  Oh well.



Whole Foods and Trader Joe's, both local markets, are doing that.  Only allowing a person in after a person leaves.  Very definitely, picking a less busy time is advised, so as to cut down on wait time and on the number of folks inside.
A problem that I noted (and which I found extremely irritating) was the number of people not paying enough attention to the distancing guidelines.  One of the few circumstances which was able to raise my ire, which is usually quite hard.
Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Because of circumstances beyond my control, I was forced to make 2 grocery trips in 2 days.  While things are still generally civil- and definitely no brawls or the like- I can see some fraying of nerves.

We’re under a county-wide “masking in public” order, but I did notice people- customers and employees alike- merely paying lip service to the edict by having their chosen barrier dangling impotently around their necks.  Still others didn’t even go that far and were completely unmasked.*  One stood out to me, though.

When one of the store’s developmentally challenged workers tried to point out to the customer that he lacked a mask, the man snappingly replied “I don’t have time, I’m busy!”  “Mr. Busy” was in there as long as I was- 45+ minutes.




* Pay attention to these- they’re the ones who would conceal a zombie bite.


----------



## tomBitonti

ad_hoc said:


> Sweden now has 1600 cases per million population and 200 deaths per million.
> 
> Much higher than Norway or Finland.
> 
> In absolute numbers Sweden currently has 1937 deaths compared to Norway's 187 and Finland's 149.
> 
> Close to 200 people are currently dying every day.
> 
> They made the wrong choice and they should have known better.



Sweden may be ultimately correct with their strategy: If there is no vaccine or treatment, and the only immunity is natural, then it seems likely that _everyone_ will ultimately be exposed and discover, weal or woe, if they have natural resistance.  That would make current strategies effective only to the extent that harm is spread out over time.
Of course, one hopes for an effective treatment, or for a vaccine, or, at least that those who are exposed develop resistance.
I don't think that there has been much of any articulation of how we get from now to a point where Coronavirus is no longer a daily concern.
Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Umbran

tomBitonti said:


> I don't think that there has been much of any articulation of how we get from now to a point where Coronavirus is no longer a daily concern.




They cannot articulate that which is not known.  Authorities _don't know_ if, as a population, we naturally develop herd immunity.  They _don't know_ when/if a vaccine will be available. The only reasonable approach, then, is to watch the number of folks who have it (as best as possible), and when that starts steadily decreasing sufficiently, and they _don't know_ when that will be.

Of course, this plan means there might be resurgence - and that means intermittent periods of social distancing where and when the virus comes back.


----------



## Nagol

tomBitonti said:


> Sweden may be ultimately correct with their strategy: If there is no vaccine or treatment, and the only immunity is natural, then it seems likely that _everyone_ will ultimately be exposed and discover, weal or woe, if they have natural resistance.  That would make current strategies effective only to the extent that harm is spread out over time.
> Of course, one hopes for an effective treatment, or for a vaccine, or, at least that those who are exposed develop resistance.
> I don't think that there has been much of any articulation of how we get from now to a point where Coronavirus is no longer a daily concern.
> Be Safe, Be Well,
> Tom Bitonti




If there is natural immunity then there is a vaccine.  All a vaccine does is present the body a target to instigate immunity.  The potential terror comes if natural immunity is fleeting or only partial.

A secondary success would come from anti-viral medications that can lessen severity in extreme cases.  At least then people would get sick, but be kept out of ICU.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> Sweden now has 1600 cases per million population and 200 deaths per million.
> 
> Much higher than Norway or Finland.
> 
> In absolute numbers Sweden currently has 1937 deaths compared to Norway's 187 and Finland's 149.
> 
> Close to 200 people are currently dying every day.
> 
> They made the wrong choice and they should have known better.




They definitely made the more short term deadly choice.  IMO only time will tell whether that was the right choice though.


----------



## ad_hoc

tomBitonti said:


> Sweden may be ultimately correct with their strategy: If there is no vaccine or treatment, and the only immunity is natural, then it seems likely that _everyone_ will ultimately be exposed and discover, weal or woe, if they have natural resistance.  That would make current strategies effective only to the extent that harm is spread out over time.
> Of course, one hopes for an effective treatment, or for a vaccine, or, at least that those who are exposed develop resistance.
> I don't think that there has been much of any articulation of how we get from now to a point where Coronavirus is no longer a daily concern.
> Be Safe, Be Well,
> Tom Bitonti




I don't know what you're saying.

You think it's a good idea to overload a healthcare system and have a lot of people die because there might not be a treatment or vaccine in the future?

Getting COVID 19 might not even provide you with immunity for long. So you're saying it's worth the risk to infect everyone now and then have them all infected again in 6 months and so on, for what exactly?


----------



## ad_hoc

Here is Canada's model:






Orange is we do nothing.
Green is we do social distancing well.
Blue is we try but don't do a good job.

Orange is over 300 000 dead.
Green is 11 000 to 22 000 dead.


----------



## Zardnaar

tomBitonti said:


> Whole Foods and Trader Joe's, both local markets, are doing that.  Only allowing a person in after a person leaves.  Very definitely, picking a less busy time is advised, so as to cut down on wait time and on the number of folks inside.
> A problem that I noted (and which I found extremely irritating) was the number of people not paying enough attention to the distancing guidelines.  One of the few circumstances which was able to raise my ire, which is usually quite hard.
> Be Safe, Be Well,
> Tom Bitonti




 Security guard in the door here and a max limit on number of people.


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> They definitely made the more short term deadly choice.  IMO only time will tell whether that was the right choice though.




We are already there.


----------



## Nagol

ad_hoc said:


> Here is Canada's model:
> 
> View attachment 121268
> 
> Orange is we do nothing.
> Green is we do social distancing well.
> Blue is we try but don't do a good job.
> 
> Orange is over 300 000 dead.
> Green is 11 000 to 22 000 dead.




My current fear is a new surge coincident with seasonal influenza starting in late November / December pushes everyone back into isolation by Christmas.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> With so many other fast food burger competitors?  Probably not worth it - burgers will require different equipment in the kitchen just for the burgers...




 We don't have all the other burger chains.

 McDs and Burger King are your options. Getting premium small ones. Oh Wendy's is also here now. Good luck finding BK and Wendy's outside the cities though. 

 KFC burgers are decent and it's what I get when I go. Haven't been since December 2017. No point when fish and chip shops do burgers often better


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> We are already there.




No where near.


----------



## ad_hoc

Nagol said:


> My current fear is a new surge coincident with seasonal influenza starting in late November / December pushes everyone back into isolation by Christmas.




Canada is preparing for a 2nd wave.

The plan as I understand it is to keep the state of emergency going for 'many weeks' and then only slowly relax the social distancing strategies province to province with contingencies for a 2nd wave.

Not until there is a vaccine will the emergency plan be fully relaxed.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> Canada is preparing for a 2nd wave.
> 
> The plan as I understand it is to keep the state of emergency going for 'many weeks' and then only slowly relax the social distancing strategies province to province with contingencies for a 2nd wave.
> 
> Not until there is a vaccine will the emergency plan be fully relaxed.




If or more correctly when a second wave arrives I stop being worried about the virus and start being worried about the economy.  That's the point when things really start getting bad IMO.


----------



## Nagol

ad_hoc said:


> Canada is preparing for a 2nd wave.
> 
> The plan as I understand it is to keep the state of emergency going for 'many weeks' and then only slowly relax the social distancing strategies province to province with contingencies for a 2nd wave.
> 
> Not until there is a vaccine will the emergency plan be fully relaxed.



Yeah, I've been paying attention.  Each province has been given the go-ahead to relax on its own terms though.  I suspect social isolation will begin the relax by end of May at current trajectory.  If the surge tails off nicely through the summer, humans being humans will relax and become complacent.  A new surge in November will catch the population off-guard.  Hopefully, those tasked with vigilance won't be and we'll get warning.
I... tend to do poorly in the late winter.  Social isolation would make that period substantially worse.


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> No where near.




No.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> No.




Yes


----------



## ad_hoc

Nagol said:


> Yeah, I've been paying attention.  Each province has been given the go-ahead to relax on its own terms though.  I suspect social isolation will begin the relax by end of May at current trajectory.  If the surge tails off nicely through the summer, humans being humans will relax and become complacent.  A new surge in November will catch the population off-guard.  Hopefully, those tasked with vigilance won't be and we'll get warning.
> I... tend to do poorly in the late winter.  Social isolation would make that period substantially worse.




Yeah, right now the message from all of the politicians I have been following is - 'don't get complacent'.

I imagine that will be hammered home from now until there is a vaccine.

I am grateful that all parties seem to be on the same page about this and are taking things seriously. The plan is to err on the side of caution to avoid the risk of losing all that we have accomplished.

Not only will this save lives but the economy will be much stronger in the end with this plan than with a plan that opens too soon and has everything crash again.


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> Yes




Every time you come in here and just say 'no' to someone's post I'm just going to say 'no' to your post. 

Maybe eventually you'll see that this is not actually adding anything to the conversation.


----------



## Nagol

ad_hoc said:


> Yeah, right now the message from all of the politicians I have been following is - 'don't get complacent'.
> 
> I imagine that will be hammered home from now until there is a vaccine.
> 
> I am grateful that all parties seem to be on the same page about this and are taking things seriously. The plan is to err on the side of caution to avoid the risk of losing all that we have accomplished.
> 
> Not only will this save lives but the economy will be much stronger in the end with this plan than with a plan that opens too soon and has everything crash again.




There's been a bit of sniping at the federal level but so far it is controlled.

The don't get complacent messaging has been around don't break self-isolation yet.  That sort of message will become a really hard sell by August if covid-19 seems to be reasonably well-controlled.  My experience with people suggests memory loses its edge to affect behaviour after about 3-6 months.  By Hallowe'en the population at large will have a fading memory of the spring and have resumed normal behaviour if it is allowed to.  It is hard to affect how a population acts based on a single event.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> Every time you come in here and just say 'no' to someone's post I'm just going to say 'no' to your post.
> 
> Maybe eventually you'll see that this is not actually adding anything to the conversation.




You are the one that started this exchange.  Next time don't start by saying "they are already there" in disagreement to me for pointing out that only time will be able to validate if their strategy was right long term.  That's why you got the tid for tat response treatment from there on.  What you said was no better than "no you are wrong" and I do take offense to that.


----------



## Zardnaar

On another forum someone pointed this out. 

 Whole it's easy to say stay at home and shut everything for 2-3 months not everyone can do that.

 Our cupboards are full and we have a pile of food in the other room and hallway. 

 The average person has a week or two supply of food and a lot of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck without the safety net Europe and Australasia has. 

 There's already food disruptions in the USA,  article I posted early on the BBC 30 million people might starve elsewhere.

 Here if you're completely broke there's welfare and food parcel deliveries. 

 If you're a trapped foreigner there's emergency housing/motel and food parcels available. You also get emergency Covid healthcare. Government bailout was a wage subsidy of $500+ per week conditional on companies paying 80% of their employee hours and there's a public list of companies getting it and how much.

 Unemployment has spiked but it's similar levels to European unemployment in normal times. 

 Easier to say stay at home when worse case scenario you end up in a motel room with someone dropping off food once a week. 

 Things will get worse once the lockdown finishes. Not sure if they'll keep paying for motel rooms although the charities became government funded as well.


----------



## ad_hoc

Nagol said:


> There's been a bit of sniping at the federal level but so far it is controlled.
> 
> The don't get complacent messaging has been around don't break self-isolation yet.  That sort of message will become a really hard sell by August if covid-19 seems to be reasonably well-controlled.  My experience with people suggests memory loses its edge to affect behaviour after about 3-6 months.  By Hallowe'en the population at large will have a fading memory of the spring and have resumed normal behaviour if it is allowed to.  It is hard to affect how a population acts based on a single event.




Yeah, and as their model showed they're expecting the first wave to be over before the start of fall.

I think the real question here is what contingency plans are they going to have for a second wave.

How fast will the reaction be. If measures are relaxed and then put back into place people will notice. And they will have practice from this time.

I also think people will be continuing measures like face masks, physical distancing, hand washing, etc. Those weren't normalized in Canadian society at the start of all of this. It will be in November.


----------



## Zardnaar

I got bored and looked at our food/nation.

 We export something like 80-90% and we're looking at doubling production in the next decade or two.

 87% live in an urban environment. 13% produce most of that food. 13% of 5 million people.

 Theoretically we can feed Australia, ourselves and export elsewhere. Theoretically we can double that so we can theoretically feed 60 odd million people. 

 We're not using the land that efficiently high value meat and bulk dairy. 

 If we switched to potatoes or whatever we can feed even more. 

 Theoretically, probably don't have the labour to harvest crops, or be able to process it for export (canning, drying etc).

 Farms already projecting labour shortages as tourists on working holidays do a lot of orchard, vineyard type work.


----------



## FrogReaver

Nagol said:


> There's been a bit of sniping at the federal level but so far it is controlled.
> 
> The don't get complacent messaging has been around don't break self-isolation yet.  That sort of message will become a really hard sell by August if covid-19 seems to be reasonably well-controlled.  My experience with people suggests memory loses its edge to affect behaviour after about 3-6 months.  By Hallowe'en the population at large will have a fading memory of the spring and have resumed normal behaviour if it is allowed to.  It is hard to affect how a population acts based on a single event.




I would have thought the timeframe closer to 4-6 weeks.


----------



## The Green Hermit

ad_hoc said:


> I think the real question here is what contingency plans are they going to have for a second wave.
> 
> How fast will the reaction be. If measures are relaxed and then put back into place people will notice. And they will have practice from this time.



That and if they will have started to build better Internet/cell phone infrastructure and get tech in the hands of all students.


----------



## ad_hoc

FrogReaver said:


> You are the one that started this exchange.  Next time don't start by saying "they are already there" in disagreement to me for pointing out that only time will be able to validate if their strategy was right long term.  That's why you got the tid for tat response treatment from there on.  What you said was no better than "no you are wrong" and I do take offense to that.




You are wrong.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> You are wrong.




I am right.


----------



## ad_hoc

The Green Hermit said:


> That and if they will have started to build better Internet/cell phone infrastructure and get tech in the hands of all students.




Yeah, as always the poor and vulnerable are hit the hardest.

Not everyone can learn from home.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Fire up your popcorn & get comfy: we’ve got states opening ahead of the schedule recommended by the models the Feds are using- including having a 14-day continuous decline in coronavirus cases before reopening- AND Rick Bright has been removed from his post for applying the scientific method.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/22/coronavirus-latest-news/
		


Hope it works out, but I don’t think it will.


----------



## The Green Hermit

ad_hoc said:


> Yeah, as always the poor and vulnerable are hit the hardest.
> 
> Not everyone can learn from home.



I teach at an Online school and even our students are having more difficulties than normal with this, and our routines/procedures haven't changed all that much.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Fire up your popcorn & get comfy: we’ve got states opening ahead of the schedule recommended by the models the Feds are using- including having a 14-day continuous decline in coronavirus cases before reopening- AND Rick Bright has been removed from his post for applying the scientific method.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/22/coronavirus-latest-news/
> 
> 
> 
> Hope it works out, but I don’t think it will.




 I would but we ate the popcorn 4 weeks ago.

 These were good though.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Fire up your popcorn & get comfy: we’ve got states opening ahead of the schedule recommended by the models the Feds are using- including having a 14-day continuous decline in coronavirus cases before reopening- AND Rick Bright has been removed from his post for applying the scientific method.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/22/coronavirus-latest-news/
> 
> 
> 
> Hope it works out, but I don’t think it will.




It's scary when they're putting pressure on doctors and scientists to support their political narratives.


----------



## Zardnaar

First deaths a lot earlier than thought.









						Coronavirus: First US deaths weeks earlier than thought
					

Two newly identified cases in California are now believed to be the earliest virus deaths in the US.



					www.bbc.com
				




 Means it probably got to the US in January.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

tomBitonti said:


> Sweden may be ultimately correct with their strategy: If there is no vaccine or treatment, and the only immunity is natural, then it seems likely that _everyone_ will ultimately be exposed and discover, weal or woe, if they have natural resistance.  That would make current strategies effective only to the extent that harm is spread out over time.




That’s essentially the long term version of “flattening the curve.”

The thing is, Sweden’s path is, IMHO, unnecessarily risky, gambling with millions of lives against possible losses of hundreds of thousands when stricter social controls are buying time in _other_ countries to develop both vaccines and treatments.

At the very least, some of the oldest methods of anti-virology- using the antibodies, plasma etc., of the survivors to kickstart the immune responses of the unaffected may deliver treatments...but that takes _time_.



> I don't think that there has been much of any articulation of how we get from now to a point where Coronavirus is no longer a daily concern.
> Be Safe, Be Well,
> Tom Bitonti




We’re still in the earliest stages of fighting this monster,  We don’t know how long acquired immunity lasts- if it exists.  We don’t even know the full range effects of Covid-19  on the human body- besides the lungs, we know it affects the brain, the liver, the cardiovascular system- much less HOW, WHY, and for how long.

As the epidemiologist pointed out, there may be effects we might not be able to diagnose for _decades, _making this a nastier virus than we think it is, simply based on mortality rates and virulence.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That’s essentially the long term version of “flattening the curve.”
> 
> The thing is, Sweden’s path is, IMHO, unnecessarily risky, gambling with millions of lives against possible losses of hundreds of thousands when stricter social controls are buying time in _other_ countries to develop both vaccines and treatments.
> 
> At the very least, some of the oldest methods of anti-virology- using the antibodies, plasma etc., of the survivors to kickstart the immune responses of the unaffected may deliver treatments...but that takes _time_.
> 
> 
> 
> We’re still in the earliest stages of fighting this monster,  We don’t know how long acquired immunity lasts- if it exists.  We don’t even know the full range effects of Covid-19  on the human body- besides the lungs, we know it affects the v
> brain, the liver, the cardiovascular system- much less HOW, WHY, and for how long.
> 
> As the epidemiologist pointed out, there may be effects we might not be able to diagnose for _decades, _making this a nastier virus than we think it is, simply based on mortality rates and virulence.




So I get called out when I start talking about a bunch of stuff we don't know about the virus.  How about I call you out for the same.  We don't know hardly any of that so its not better of you to suggest the worst case than it is for me to suggest the best.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That’s essentially the long term version of “flattening the curve.”
> 
> The thing is, Sweden’s path is, IMHO, unnecessarily risky, gambling with millions of lives against possible losses of hundreds of thousands when stricter social controls are buying time in _other_ countries to develop both vaccines and treatments.
> 
> At the very least, some of the oldest methods of anti-virology- using the antibodies, plasma etc., of the survivors to kickstart the immune responses of the unaffected may deliver treatments...but that takes _time_.




I think the worst aspect of it is that as a wealthy nation they have no need to remain open.

They're putting their wants against the consequences of death and trauma.

It's odd to me that of all nations it's Sweden to behave like this. If I had to guess what countries would flaunt the recommendations to enact quarantine protocols Sweden would be at the bottom of my list (but then of course I'm ignorant to the current status of their government).


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> So I get called out when I start talking about a bunch of stuff we don't know about the virus.  How about I call you out for the same.  We don't know hardly any of that so its not better of you to suggest the worst case than it is for me to suggest the best.




 Being to optimistic leads to complacency and that gets people killed.

 Herd immunity for example may end up as the best approach but I wouldn't be using it as my first approach more of a plan B. 

 Sweden's approach might be the best option long term but we don't know. If there's no vaccine and Corvid is recurring then yeah we will have to do that regardless.

 It's not just in terms of overwhelming the hospitals in terms of bed capacity but also buying time to get more beds and ppe for the staff. 

 In Italy for example the doctors and nurses got sick and died. Some committed suicide as well.

 Turns out ventilators don't make a massive difference. 

 Realistically one day numerous nation's might have to start making some crappy choices. Those choices mean that people will die.

 But there might be better choices to make or ways to minimize the downsides of those choices.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> I think the worst aspect of it is that as a wealthy nation they have no need to remain open.
> 
> They're putting their wants against the consequences of death and trauma.
> 
> It's odd to me that of all nations it's Sweden to behave like this. If I had to guess what countries would flaunt the recommendations to enact quarantine protocols Sweden would be at the bottom of my list (but then of course I'm ignorant to the current status of their government).




 Sweden has several things going for it.

1. One of the best social security nets in the world.

2. Cultural/social cohesion.

3. Reasonably high numbers of medical professionals.

There health system hasn't been overwhelmed. 

 Now if there's a second wave a lot of people who have died will die anyway. 

 Sweden was to complacent but they're always high in lists of happiness, least corrupt, best healthcare type nation's. They got complacent.

 Singapore also was complacent but their approach didn't work as well as what people were claiming a month ago. 

 It's also not known if lockdowns the best approach. Short term it saves lives long term idk and you can't really sustain lockdown for more than a few months.

 Without first hand experience people tend to forget about things after a generation.

 One can read about the Spanish flu or Great Depression but it's different than living through it


----------



## tomBitonti

Umbran said:


> They cannot articulate that which is not known.  Authorities _don't know_ if, as a population, we naturally develop herd immunity.  They _don't know_ when/if a vaccine will be available. The only reasonable approach, then, is to watch the number of folks who have it (as best as possible), and when that starts steadily decreasing sufficiently, and they _don't know_ when that will be.
> 
> Of course, this plan means there might be resurgence - and that means intermittent periods of social distancing where and when the virus comes back.



Understood.
But, at least that much could be articulated, with clear


Zardnaar said:


> Being to optimistic leads to complacency and that gets people killed.
> 
> Herd immunity for example may end up as the best approach but I wouldn't be using it as my first approach more of a plan B.
> 
> Sweden's approach might be the best option long term but we don't know. If there's no vaccine and Corvid is recurring then yeah we will have to do that regardless.
> 
> It's not just in terms of overwhelming the hospitals in terms of bed capacity but also buying time to get more beds and ppe for the staff.
> 
> In Italy for example the doctors and nurses got sick and died. Some committed suicide as well.
> 
> Turns out ventilators don't make a massive difference.
> 
> Realistically one day numerous nation's might have to start making some crappy choices. Those choices mean that people will die.
> 
> But there might be better choices to make or ways to minimize the downsides of those choices.




I was just reading this: Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators | Physician's Weekly
Questions about the efficacy of intensive care for Covid-19 patients.

One presumes that hospital care makes a big difference to Covid-19 outcomes.  Does anyone have numbers on this?

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Zardnaar

tomBitonti said:


> Understood.
> But, at least that much could be articulated, with clear
> 
> 
> I was just reading this: Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators | Physician's Weekly
> Questions about the efficacy of intensive care for Covid-19 patients.
> 
> One presumes that hospital care makes a big difference to Covid-19 outcomes.  Does anyone have numbers on this?
> 
> Be Safe, Be Well,
> Tom Bitonti




 From what I've seen if you need a ventilator you're probably screwed anyway. 

10-33% survive varying by country, last I read those numbers may have changed.

 A lot of ventilators are in use in normal times. As of a few years ago 3 people in the USA use iron lungs. 

 I think NZ has around 160, some African countries have a handful I think Liberia has none along with some Pacific Islands. 

 Even if you have them they require training. See previous comment about medical staff being killed.


----------



## Nagol

ad_hoc said:


> I think the worst aspect of it is that as a wealthy nation they have no need to remain open.
> 
> They're putting their wants against the consequences of death and trauma.
> 
> It's odd to me that of all nations it's Sweden to behave like this. If I had to guess what countries would flaunt the recommendations to enact quarantine protocols Sweden would be at the bottom of my list (but then of course I'm ignorant to the current status of their government).




There was an interview with their epidemiologist yesterday...https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01098-x

Apparently part of the problem is they didn't think they had a legal right to order entire cities/regions to close.


----------



## Nagol

tomBitonti said:


> Understood.
> But, at least that much could be articulated, with clear
> 
> 
> I was just reading this: Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators | Physician's Weekly
> Questions about the efficacy of intensive care for Covid-19 patients.
> 
> One presumes that hospital care makes a big difference to Covid-19 outcomes.  Does anyone have numbers on this?
> 
> Be Safe, Be Well,
> Tom Bitonti




Short of receiving oxygen / ventilation, hospital care puts you under observation to check if you need the former.  There aren't any treatments other than mechanical intervention.

Once you need oxygen/ventilation, not receiving it kills you.


----------



## FrogReaver

Nagol said:


> There was an interview with their epidemiologist yesterday...https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01098-x
> 
> Apparently part of the problem is they didn't think they had a legal right to order entire cities/regions to close.




Excellent Article!  Thanks for sharing.


----------



## ad_hoc

Nagol said:


> There was an interview with their epidemiologist yesterday...https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01098-x
> 
> Apparently part of the problem is they didn't think they had a legal right to order entire cities/regions to close.




Wow, blaming the deaths on outbreaks at long term care homes. 

I mean yes. That's a hotspot for deaths and I assume that is the hotspot for deaths in all similar countries. A large amount of the deaths in Canada are in long term care homes. 

I don't see that as an argument against quarantine procedures.

Sweden has 2000 deaths and Finland and Norway each have 150-200. 

I checked the date on that article because I assumed it was out of date, but no, it was written yesterday.

It seems that their approach is that they waited this long to shut things down and now it is too late so might as well ride it out.

The UK originally tried that strategy too right, and now they have the 2nd highest daily death toll in the world (2nd to USA naturally).


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> Wow, blaming the deaths on outbreaks at long term care homes.
> 
> I mean yes. That's a hotspot for deaths and I assume that is the hotspot for deaths in all similar countries. A large amount of the deaths in Canada are in long term care homes.
> 
> I don't see that as an argument against quarantine procedures.
> 
> Sweden has 2000 deaths and Finland and Norway each have 150-200.
> 
> I checked the date on that article because I assumed it was out of date, but no, it was written yesterday.
> 
> It seems that their approach is that they waited this long to shut things down and now it is too late so might as well ride it out.
> 
> The UK originally tried that strategy too right, and now they have the 2nd highest daily death toll in the world (2nd to USA naturally).




 I've been looking at deaths per million. 

 Media likes large numbers, but Sweden's one of the worst hit in the world in terms of per capita. I posted this a week or so ago when their deaths were 122 per million, USA had 66. 

 Best places to self isolate are Rarotonga (0 cases) and other Pacific Islands followed by NZ and Australia.

 Ecudor also looks bad but due to lack of testing and other problems their official numbers don't like to bad but bodies are in the street levels of bad. 

 These guys (laoway86, SerpentZA, ADV China) were also ringing alarm bells in January. They lived in China for over a decade and can read internal Chinese releases and have friends in hospitals as his wife is a Chinese doctor (now in US).

 Note has F bombs.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> Being to optimistic leads to complacency and that gets people killed.
> 
> Herd immunity for example may end up as the best approach but I wouldn't be using it as my first approach more of a plan B.




I guess the question there is how long can an economy be shut down before a large portion of people start not being able to afford essentials.  At that point the cure is worse than the disease - but I'm not sure how long that actually takes.

Speaking globally - any length of an economic shutdown is probably more deadly for poor countries than the virus itself.



> Sweden's approach might be the best option long term but we don't know. If there's no vaccine and Corvid is recurring then yeah we will have to do that regardless.




Sure but every month you shut down also likely means people in your country are that much closer to running out of essentials and it's not like you can just flip a switch and bring the whole economy roaring to life again.



> It's not just in terms of overwhelming the hospitals in terms of bed capacity but also buying time to get more beds and ppe for the staff.




A very good point.  Though I'm not sure how much that is actually happening at least in the U.S.

I'd make an educated guess that at least 1/100 people in the U.S. already have had covid-19.  To reach herd immunity we would be looking at worst case of millions dead.  However, if say 1/20 people have already had it then we are looking at a few hundred thousand dead if we stopped everything right now.  Which really isn't that bad considering current estimates are at like 66,000 but given the last few days of data I expect that projection to increase further.

But perhaps the most important question at this time is how many people have had the virus that haven't yet been documented as having it.



> In Italy for example the doctors and nurses got sick and died. Some committed suicide as well.
> 
> Turns out ventilators don't make a massive difference.
> 
> Realistically one day numerous nation's might have to start making some crappy choices. Those choices mean that people will die.
> 
> But there might be better choices to make or ways to minimize the downsides of those choices.




As in all things, the choices you make to minimize the downsides of 1 thing may amplify the downsides of another thing and at this point we really don't know long term what to be more afraid of.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> I guess the question there is how long can an economy be shut down before a large portion of people start not being able to afford essentials.  At that point the cure is worse than the disease - but I'm not sure how long that actually takes.
> 
> Speaking globally - any length of an economic shutdown is probably more deadly for poor countries than the virus itself.
> 
> 
> 
> Sure but every month you shut down also likely means people in your country are that much closer to running out of essentials and it's not like you can just flip a switch and bring the whole economy roaring to life again.
> 
> 
> 
> A very good point.  Though I'm not sure how much that is actually happening at least in the U.S.
> 
> I'd make an educated guess that at least 1/100 people in the U.S. already have had covid-19.  To reach herd immunity we would be looking at worst case of millions dead.  However, if say 1/20 people have already had it then we are looking at a few hundred thousand dead if we stopped everything right now.  Which really isn't that bad considering current estimates are at like 66,000 but given the last few days of data I expect that projection to increase further.
> 
> But perhaps the most important question at this time is how many people have had the virus that haven't yet been documented as having it.
> 
> 
> 
> As in all things, the choices you make to minimize the downsides of 1 thing may amplify the downsides of another thing and at this point we really don't know long term what to be more afraid of.




 The one size fits all approach doesn't work it seems. 

 What's an option in rich western countries isn't an option in say India. 

 People going hungary is already happening in parts if the world. In the USA you already have people lining up for food. 

 First thing I did 5 weeks ago was busy out some material via Google on the great depression. 

 I wasn't joking when I said Americans are going to be seeing thing they haven't had to deal with since FDR. 

 Sent back a bit further as well both with Spanish Flu and Black Death, Antonine Plague and Justinian. 

 It's not always the virus itself but the break down in food supply, wars etc that kills more people. 
 Let's say lockdown saves 200000 American s the disruption to the world means 30 million die elsewhere. 

 Reality still hasn't really started to hit as it takes a while to run down food and money reserves. Here the government keep food production going along with freight as they count as essential.

 Not sure what the exact unemployment figures are but 60-80% are sitting at home atm that will drop 20% next week.

 500k are working out if a population of 5 million and a workforce of 2.5 million.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

More tigers and housecats  have tested positive: 









						Seven more big cats test positive for coronavirus at Bronx Zoo
					

Following a National Geographic inquiry, the zoo confirms that four more tigers and three lions have the virus. This comes the same day as two pet cats in New York become the first in the U.S. to test positive.




					www.nationalgeographic.com


----------



## Azzy

FrogReaver said:


> So I get called out when I start talking about a bunch of stuff we don't know about the virus.  How about I call you out for the same.  We don't know hardly any of that so its not better of you to suggest the worst case than it is for me to suggest the best.



Blind optimism doesn't help. The "best" is what you hope for. The "worst" is what you actually plan for. Doing otherwise is opening yourself up to failure.


----------



## Zardnaar

Azzy said:


> Blind optimism doesn't help. The "best" is what you hope for. The "worst" is what you actually plan for. Doing otherwise is opening yourself up to failure.




 I prepped for the worst here (Italy). 

 If need be we weren't going to leave the house for two months even to go to the supermarket. Our curve was doubling every two days like everyone else.

 Started stocking up before panic buying and during panic buying bought stuff late at night getting brands and product no one else wanted. Plenty of canned chickpeas I'ma not fussy.


----------



## Eltab

FrogReaver said:


> I guess the question there is how long can an economy be shut down before a large portion of people start not being able to afford essentials.  At that point the cure is worse than the disease - but I'm not sure how long that actually takes.



If my local Public Library had not shut down, my trip this weekend would involve finding the shelf with books about the Great Depression and picking as many books as I can carry that seem to speak towards that point.  Would that there was somebody taking reservations and sending books out via NDA mail or something.

Looking for somebody who can address the public with attitude like Thomas Edison: "I haven't failed {to create an electric light bulb}.  I just found 9,999 ways that didn't work."  But on the 10,000th try ... there was light !


----------



## FrogReaver

Azzy said:


> Blind optimism doesn't help. The "best" is what you hope for. The "worst" is what you actually plan for. Doing otherwise is opening yourself up to failure.




Okay - so worst is it's goina kill us all.  What now?


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Okay - so worst is it's goina kill us all.  What now?




 At the worst I doubt it would kill 1%. In theory you could out right do nothing but there's something else going on. 

 I'll let you draw your on conclusions what that something else is but the polite version is our grand parents were wiser.

 Great depression tldr version.

30% unemployment
Food prices halved
GDP contracted almost 50%
Low inflation
Low interest rates
Run on banks
Soup kitchens
Dust bowl in mid west.

 People sewed their in clothes, dressed in sack clothes, travelled to work on farms in return for small amounts of cash and room and food. Seamstress in family or if you could grow your own food was an advantage.

Plus side they know how to get out of them. Downside several countries are already close to wartime levels of debt.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> So I get called out when I start talking about a bunch of stuff we don't know about the virus.  How about I call you out for the same.  We don't know hardly any of that so its not better of you to suggest the worst case than it is for me to suggest the best.



I really have no idea what you’re talking about re: your posts, but all I’m doing on that quoted post is echoing the points made by virologists and epidemiologists.


----------



## Zardnaar

2 more deaths, 16 total. New cases 3. Was 5 yesterday, 8 in the weekend. 









						Coronavirus: Two deaths, three new Covid-19 cases in New Zealand
					

A further two people have died from coronavirus taking the toll to 16, the Government has confirmed.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 One if them was sick for a month. Youngest victim yet at 62 with pre existing conditions.









						Coronavirus: Grandmother's son and husband were by her side as she died of Covid-19
					

New Zealand's youngest victim of coronavirus was suffering arthritis and taking medication which suppressed her immune system, say her devastated family.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Azzy

FrogReaver said:


> Okay - so worst is it's goina kill us all.  What now?



A) That's not actually the worst case scenario. The dead do not suffer.
B) That's not actually a _realistic_ worst-case scenario given the worst projections.
C) If it were realistic, then behave like it and try to mitigate it as best as possible.

Do you have any other weird flexes that you would like to blithely share with the rest of the class?


----------



## Nilbog

Morrus said:


> Human trials on the U.K. vaccine start on Thuraday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: UK vaccine to be trialled on people from Thursday — Sky News
> 
> 
> Clinical trials of a coronavirus vaccine will begin on people from Thursday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apple.news




I am not a religious person by a long way but I'm praying like never before for this to be successful


----------



## ad_hoc

Nilbog said:


> I am not a religious person by a long way but I'm praying like never before for this to be successful




When the estimates are that a vaccine is 12-18 months away that is because clinical trials take a long time.

Even when they are fast tracked.

A lot of evidence and scrutiny needs to happen before something is mass administered. We don't want to give people something that is worse for them.


----------



## Nilbog

ad_hoc said:


> When the estimates are that a vaccine is 12-18 months away that is because clinical trials take a long time.
> 
> Even when they are fast tracked.
> 
> A lot of evidence and scrutiny needs to happen before something is mass administered. We don't want to give people something that is worse for them.




Oh I know, but really I'm pretty much at wits end and clinging to any little bit of optimism I can.  Good news is in scant supply, so I try to cherish every little I can.


----------



## ad_hoc

Nilbog said:


> Oh I know, but really I'm pretty much at wits end and clinging to any little bit of optimism I can.  Good news is in scant supply, so I try to cherish every little I can.




Fair


----------



## Zardnaar

Nilbog said:


> Oh I know, but really I'm pretty much at wits end and clinging to any little bit of optimism I can.  Good news is in scant supply, so I try to cherish every little I can.




 I got called Mr Doom and Gloom 5 weeks ago. 

 It's iffy on a vaccine full stop. Not anytime soon best case. 

 Got family to prepare for the worst if it's better than that I get a pleasant surprise. If I'm right we're prepared best we can.


----------



## Nilbog

Zardnaar said:


> I got called Me Doom and Gloom 5 weeks ago.
> 
> It's iffy on a vaccine full stop. Not anytime soon best case.
> 
> Got family to prepare for the worst if it's better than that I get a pleasant surprise. If I'm right we're prepared best we can.




I'll be honest, if it's as bad as the worst case scenarios are predicting (lockdown for years, food rationing etc), I think I'd rather be dead. There is living and there is existing. So like I said earlier I'll keep praying for that miracle


----------



## Zardnaar

Nilbog said:


> I'll be honest, if it's as bad as the worst case scenarios are predicting (lockdown for years, food rationing etc), I think I'd rather be dead. There is living and there is existing. So like I said earlier I'll keep praying for that miracle




 I'll pick a large number then. Doom and gloom.

 1 million Americans die. Relative to the population it's WW2 level casualties.

 Throw in a depression. Government's borrow like mad. 

 UK paid their wartime debt off in 2006. War ended 1945. 

  It's stuff our grand parents and great grandparents had to deal with. The greatest generation. 

 Well now it's our turn. Happened to citizens of the ex USSR in the 90's. 

 Like it or not we have to deal with it. I'm unemployed my brothers a pilot he lost his job. 

 We're joking about doing farm work again. Not the way we planned it but he grew up on a farm, I've worked on a farm. 

 Sucks grubbing in mud in 40s and 50s or doing something involving seafood.

 I can cook seafood in a hole dug in the ground and buried Polynesian style. I don't like seafood but if you're hungry enough......


----------



## Nilbog

Zardnaar said:


> I'll pick a large number then. Doom and gloom.
> 
> 1 million Americans die. Relative to the population it's WW2 level casualties.
> 
> Throw in a depression. Government's borrow like mad.
> 
> UK paid their wartime debt off in 2006. War ended 1945.
> 
> It's stuff our grand parents and great grandparents had to deal with. The greatest generation.
> 
> Well now it's our turn. Happened to citizens of the ex USSR in the 90's.
> 
> Like it or not we have to deal with it. I'm unemployed my brothers a pilot he lost his job.
> 
> We're joking about doing farm work again. Not the way we planned it but he grew up on a farm, I've worked on a farm.
> 
> Sucks grubbing in mud in 40s and 50s or doing something involving seafood.
> 
> I can cook seafood in a hole dug in the ground and buried Polynesian style. I don't like seafood but if you're hungry enough......




And I don't disagree, we have to face it and 'hope for the best, prepare for the worst' is as good a mantra to live by as any. 

And I'm glad you have that survivalist instinct, that's good, and I'm sure there are many more like you which is also good. I'm pretty content at the moment, like yourself I'm prepared as best can be, but that doesn't alter the fact that life has to have a modicum of enjoyment to it, I've not seen my girlfriend or my parents for the best part of five weeks now, which again is hardly the greatest hardship suffered, but for how long? 2 more months? Years? 

At what point do we say things have to change, or will we ever? Is this now the new normal, with things we took for granted before, like socialising, a treat that we may only get to experience once in a blue moon? 

For me the hardship isn't in what we are doing now, it's the fact that there doesn't seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel, and everytime there seems to be one is quickly put out


----------



## Zardnaar

Nilbog said:


> And I don't disagree, we have to face it and 'hope for the best, prepare for the worst' is as good a mantra to live by as any.
> 
> And I'm glad you have that survivalist instinct, that's good, and I'm sure there are many more like you which is also good. I'm pretty content at the moment, like yourself I'm prepared as best can be, but that doesn't alter the fact that life has to have a modicum of enjoyment to it, I've not seen my girlfriend or my parents for the best part of five weeks now, which again is hardly the greatest hardship suffered, but for how long? 2 more months? Years?
> 
> At what point do we say things have to change, or will we ever? Is this now the new normal, with things we took for granted before, like socialising, a treat that we may only get to experience once in a blue moon?
> 
> For me the hardship isn't in what we are doing now, it's the fact that there doesn't seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel, and everytime there seems to be one is quickly put out




 History degree I take a longer term view. Things are gonna suck but for me that's just a return to the 80s and 90s after parents separated. 

 I'm remembering stuff from being a Keas  and Cub scouts, army basic etc. Cooking on tin cans or a hangi. Collecting shellfish off the rocks, working on farm and taking a cabbage home for mum. Catching fish off the wharf. 

 Half remembered seeing and cooking lessons at school. Agriculture subject year one of high school. Age 13 picking carrots.

 Looking at back yard and seeing terraces with a glasshouse or child hood gardens. Short term there is no light at end of tunnel.
  Best case we're going back to the 1970s in some ways.

 Anyone promises a quick fix is full of crap.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

My maternal great grandmother lived through the 1918 flu, and was a hell of a character.

My grandparents grew up in the depression, with the added difficulty of being black in the south.  I have seen how the necessity of extreme frugality shapes you.

Regardless of the hardships, people will still be people.  It’s all about how you react & adapt.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

More fun!

Newly recognized symptoms/effects








						A coronavirus patient thought he was recovering. Then doctors found blood clots in his lungs — a new and potentially deadly complication of the virus.
					

"It feels like a toxin is in my body," Michael Reagan, a coronavirus patient who was told he had dozens of blood clots in his lungs, said.




					www.yahoo.com
				




What happens in Vegas...








						Las Vegas Not-So-Politely Declines Mayor’s Bonkers Offer to Become Virus ‘Control Group’
					

Las Vegans on Wednesday trashed Mayor Carolyn Goodman’s suggestion that city residents would love to be a “control group” to see how ending Nevada’s coronavirus lockdown would affect the spread of the new coronavirus.“We would love to be that placebo side so you have something to measure...




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> My maternal great grandmother lived through the 1918 flu, and was a hell of a character.
> 
> My grandparents grew up in the depression, with the added difficulty of being black in the south.  I have seen how the necessity of extreme frugality ships you.
> 
> Regardless of the hardships, people will still be people.  It’s all about how you react & adapt.




 Pretty much. My mother's stories she had and inherited from her grandparents were bad. 

 Met great grandfather in the 80s and he sounded like Darth Vader. Germans gassed him western front WW1.

 Things aren't good but the Germans aren't shooting at me, dropping gas shells on me, or firing V2 rockets at me. I'm not running up Omaha beach or the hill at Monte Casino. No paratroopers dropping on me at Crete, or angry Germans and Italians charging at me lead by Rommel.

 My harbor has quarantine island used during Spanish Flu.  It's called that for a reason.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> More fun!
> 
> Newly recognized symptoms/effects
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A coronavirus patient thought he was recovering. Then doctors found blood clots in his lungs — a new and potentially deadly complication of the virus.
> 
> 
> "It feels like a toxin is in my body," Michael Reagan, a coronavirus patient who was told he had dozens of blood clots in his lungs, said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What happens in Vegas...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Las Vegas Not-So-Politely Declines Mayor’s Bonkers Offer to Become Virus ‘Control Group’
> 
> 
> Las Vegans on Wednesday trashed Mayor Carolyn Goodman’s suggestion that city residents would love to be a “control group” to see how ending Nevada’s coronavirus lockdown would affect the spread of the new coronavirus.“We would love to be that placebo side so you have something to measure...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com




 The Vegas thing made CNN on YouTube. 

 I read the news each day, haven't had a tv reception in years so not used to live news reports.

 My American friends are in Colorado, Ohio, and Houston some interesting stories and reactions.


----------



## Zardnaar

Might get a chuckle.









						NZers more trusting in news outlets than other countries - survey
					

A new report finds New Zealanders have a relatively high trust in news compared to other developed countries, despite "strong concerns" about poor journalism in this country.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 It's why I use BBC and Reuter's a lot.

 The tribal authorities blocked the roads. Tourists weren't happy and it's if dubious legality but the cops were fine with it. 

Zero cases of Covid though. Tourists weren't happy but tough luck.









						Lockdown a chance to live off the land, whānau say
					

Whānau with three generations under one roof have said lockdown has given them time to transfer whakapapa knowledge and return to living off the land.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




Great leap backwards.

 Translation (approx)

Whanau- family
Whakapapa- extended family group
Iwi -tribe
Mokopuna- grandkids
Whare- house


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’m thinking, as things progress and we start reopening our various communities, one of the things that’s going to be found in more stores- including convenience stores- is masks of some sort.  

Maybe HomeEc and similar classes will return to schools* and kids will learn how to make their own, along with basic cooking, etc.

Even the N95 masks will eventually become more (but not commonly) available in the next few years, or perhaps something new that is easier for the regular Joes and Janes to use.



* we are the virus


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m thinking, as things progress and we start reopening our various communities, one of the things that’s going to be found in more stores- including convenience stores- is masks of some sort.
> 
> Maybe HomeEc and similar classes will return to schools* and kids will learn how to make their own, along with basic cooking, etc.
> 
> Even the N95 masks will eventually become more (but not commonly) available in the next few years, or perhaps something new that is easier for the regular Joes and Janes to use.
> 
> 
> 
> * we are the virus




 Probably won't need them. Either we get a vaccine or by the time you can make enough the virus burns itself out.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’m not optimistic about the vaccine being available anywhere near the short end of the estimated timetable.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m not optimistic about the vaccine being available anywhere near the short end of the estimated timetable.




 Neither an I. Pandemics usually burn themselves out simply by killing off the vulnerable. Eventually you run out of vulnerable people. 

  Three charts here were basically.

Lock down early, get it over and done with in 2-3 months. Look out for further flair ups.

Herd immunity. Kill a lot of people up front. Get it over and done with ASAP. 

Some mix of the two. Drags it out to the end of the year assuming no second wave. 

 So Sweden's approach might be better long term less people die.

 Partial reopen Tuesday here, another two weeks for a almost normal. But it's a return to pre mass air travel, tourism, immigration etc. 

 Best case scenario is we can travel to Australia, Singapore, and some Pacific Islands in the near future. Assuming we wipe it out.

 At best only way in will be from similar countries and a rare few exemptions.

 One idea floating around is let some ultra rich in, price is build houses for the poor.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> We are already there.





FrogReaver said:


> No where near.





ad_hoc said:


> No.





FrogReaver said:


> Yes





ad_hoc said:


> You are wrong.





FrogReaver said:


> I am right.




*Mod Note:*
The subject matter of this thread requires significantly greater maturity than either of you is displaying in this exchange.  

Show that maturity, and rather better manners and respect for each other, and everyone in this thread, or your continued participation in this discussion will be at an end.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Neither an I. Pandemics usually burn themselves out simply by killing off the vulnerable. Eventually you run out of vulnerable people.




That's not entirely correct.

The 1918 flu - was the flu.  In general, if you get the flu and live, you develop antibodies to that flu that will protect you for about six months.  The flu is, in this sense, a bit self-limiting.  

The various runs of the black plague were beaten either by changing human behavior, or by killing off so many people the thing couldn't spread any more - nobody was "not vulnerable".

Cholera outbreaks are beaten not by herd immunity, but by enforcing sanitation - again, not about individuals being vulnerable.

The idea of herd immunity is comforting, but does not necessarily hold.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> That's not entirely correct.
> 
> The 1918 flu - was the flu.  In general, if you get the flu and live, you develop antibodies to that flu that will protect you for about six months.  The flu is, in this sense, a bit self-limiting.




citation for that timeframe for flu antibodies please?


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> citation for that timeframe for flu antibodies please?




For vaccines ("VE" = vaccine effectiveness):
"A multiseason (2011–12 through 2014–15) analysis from the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness (U.S. Flu VE) Network found that VE decreased by approximately 7% per month for influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B and 6%–11% per month for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (_21_). VE remained greater than zero for at least 5 to 6 months after vaccination. An analysis of the 2010–11 through 2013–14 seasons noted protection estimates ranging from 54% to 67% during days 0 through 180 postvaccination; estimated VE was not statistically significant during the period between days 181 and 365 (_20_). A third multiseason analysis (2010–11 through 2014–15) conducted in Europe noted a decline in VE to 0% at 111 days postvaccination for influenza A(H3N2) viruses. VE against influenza B viruses decreased more slowly, and VE against influenza A(H1N1) viruses remained roughly stable at 50%–55% through the influenza season (_24_). "

-from the CDC Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices — United States, 2019–20 Influenza Season


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> For vaccines ("VE" = vaccine effectiveness):
> "A multiseason (2011–12 through 2014–15) analysis from the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness (U.S. Flu VE) Network found that VE decreased by approximately 7% per month for influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B and 6%–11% per month for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (_21_). VE remained greater than zero for at least 5 to 6 months after vaccination. An analysis of the 2010–11 through 2013–14 seasons noted protection estimates ranging from 54% to 67% during days 0 through 180 postvaccination; estimated VE was not statistically significant during the period between days 181 and 365 (_20_). A third multiseason analysis (2010–11 through 2014–15) conducted in Europe noted a decline in VE to 0% at 111 days postvaccination for influenza A(H3N2) viruses. VE against influenza B viruses decreased more slowly, and VE against influenza A(H1N1) viruses remained roughly stable at 50%–55% through the influenza season (_24_). "
> 
> -from the CDC Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices — United States, 2019–20 Influenza Season




forgive my ignorance but is vaccine effectiveness and antibodies against flu virus X the same thing?


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> forgive my ignorance but is vaccine effectiveness and antibodies against flu virus X the same thing?




Yah.  The vaccine induces your immune system to produce antibodies.  The vaccine is effective so long as you have enough antibodies to protect you from the virus.

Edit to add - This is one of the places where "detectable" and "effective" matter.  A study or two have claimed they _detected_ antibodies even decades after exposure to some flu strains.  But that doesn't speak to effective immunity.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m thinking, as things progress and we start reopening our various communities, one of the things that’s going to be found in more stores- including convenience stores- is masks of some sort.
> 
> Maybe HomeEc and similar classes will return to schools* and kids will learn how to make their own, along with basic cooking, etc.
> 
> Even the N95 masks will eventually become more (but not commonly) available in the next few years, or perhaps something new that is easier for the regular Joes and Janes to use.
> 
> 
> 
> * we are the virus




I'm sure people will be selling the N95 respirators but they shouldn't be and people shouldn't be buying them.

In order to work properly they must be fit tested then the right ones used. Then they need to be used properly.

Hopefully at some point there will be a coordinated effort to teach people how to properly use masks in general.

I see too many people touching their face while using them.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’m hoping that IF N95s become more available, that availability will be preceeded by a massive increase in production so that those who need them for work will have them in adequate supply AND that there be some kind of tutorials on proper use either available or (ideally) required.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This could also be useful:








						The device one doctor says you should have in COVID-19 fight
					

Coronavirus "kills by silent hypoxia," or low oxygen, Dr. Richard Levitan said.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Eltab

Nilbog said:


> For me the hardship isn't in what we are doing now, it's the fact that there doesn't seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel, and every time there seems to be one it is quickly put out



Amen.

Cue music: Eminem
Well, this looks like a job for me / So everybody just follow me / 'Cause _we all need some encouraging_ / Life would be so empty without me!
End music
(Lyrics in italics slightly edited)

Try using these quotes when somebody tells you discouraging news:

"Always with you it can not be done." - Yoda
"Do not take counsel from your fears." - General George Patton
There is more than one way to skin a cat, even a cat that wants nothing to do with it and refuses to cooperate.  We have to keep looking, keep working on it.  Challenge the naysayers to offer an alternative.  Anybody can sit in a comfy armchair and disparage the efforts made by others, kibbutz and carp and complain.  What IS going to work?
Having an M.D. is a sign that you hold greater responsibility to lead, to work, to seek out a cure - not to prevent action others are making to achieve same.

 "It is not the critic who counts; not the man who who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better.  The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by blood and dust and sweat; who strives valiantly; who errs, who falls short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause. " - Theodore Roosevelt

Also look up the whole paragraph of "The only thing we have to fear is ... fear itself.". It is both applicable and inspiring.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This could also be useful:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The device one doctor says you should have in COVID-19 fight
> 
> 
> Coronavirus "kills by silent hypoxia," or low oxygen, Dr. Richard Levitan said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



That's really interesting. I wonder if people aren't noticing their lower oxygen levels because they're more sedentary during self-isolation?
Seems like a compelling argument for getting some exercise-- not just for the exercise itself, but to monitor how effectively you're breathing under modest exertion.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

My dad is an allergist- a subspecialty of immunology- so he sees people with respiratory deficiencies all day, every day. I’m also a patient.

More than once, people have walked into his office on the verge of being cyanotic: having a bluish cast to their skin due to lack of oxygen.   The reason is kind of like how the (possibly apocrypha) story goes about cooking a frog by putting it in the water and then turning on the heat.  Done right, by the time the frog realizes the water is too hot, it’s too late.

Likewise, conditions that affect your breathing rarely hit you rapidly.  They creep up on you slowly, and you can get in real trouble before you even realize it.  I know from personal experience that if I miss my treatments for a while, I still feel fine even if I’m objectively having measurable, significant drops in my oxygen levels.  And as soon as I’m back on regular treatment for a month, I can look back and realize just how sick I was.  But while I was having the issue, I didn’t notice.

Remember, one of the early myths about Clovis-19 was that if you could hold your breath for 10 seconds, you didn’t have it.


----------



## LuisCarlos17f

Here in Spain this is a total tragicomic disaster. We are ruled by the wrong people. We need face masks but this goverment ask the wrong people, more expensive and worse quality. Medical personal infected by their fault. I suspect they didn't the right brand because they are too corrupt to reject the economic comissions. They had to buy Chinese face masks, when there are lots of companies in Europe.

And also they are behaving like potential dictators. Spain may become a new Venezuela if we don't stop them. The want to use this health crisis to get absolute power. I am afraid then they don't want stop the emergency and they really wish the economic crash to buy cheap and after awaint the good economic years.

And do you know? DEA wants to question some Spanish big fishes, and not only bussinesmen but also important politicians. Our goberment could face a trial for criminal negligence. 

Where I live it is one of the safest zones of the peninsule, but in a nursing home in my own city has died some old people. 

Some day somebody will produce a movie about Pedro Sanchez, our president, because he is the perfect example of a psychopath and toxic boss. He is like the real life version of the character Willie Stark from Robert Pern Warren's book "All the King's Man". 

In the worst health crisis since the Spanish flu a century ago our lives depend on people who wouldn't be hired by a private company.


----------



## FrogReaver

Nearly 3 million New Yorkers have had coronavirus, antibody study suggests


----------



## Umbran

.







FrogReaver said:


> Nearly 3 million New Yorkers have had coronavirus, antibody study suggests




Ugh.  Here's hoping that their adjustment for the selection process was a bit off, so that the total is lower.


----------



## ad_hoc

Here's the story not from Fox News.









						1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest (Published 2020)
					

Accurate antibody testing is a critical tool to determine if the pandemic has slowed enough to begin restarting the economy.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## ccs

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Remember, one of the early myths about Clovis-19 was that if you could hold your breath for 10 seconds, you didn’t have it.




_What!?_  That's absurd, who'd believe that?  Are these idiots signing up for natural selection??  
If it weren't likely hazardous to my health, I'd like to meet them & either A) punch them, B) sell them a bridge I don't own.  Maybe both, & maybe in reverse order.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> .
> 
> Ugh.  Here's hoping that their adjustment for the selection process was a bit off, so that the total is lower.




IMO.. the higher the total the better.


----------



## FrogReaver

ad_hoc said:


> Here's the story not from Fox News.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> Accurate antibody testing is a critical tool to determine if the pandemic has slowed enough to begin restarting the economy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com




Is there anything wrong in the Fox News article?


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> Ugh.  Here's hoping that their adjustment for the selection process was a bit off, so that the total is lower.




I take it as both good and bad news.  On the good side, if immunity holds it means were ahead of the game.  It also means that the effects on non-high-risk people might not be as bad as some models predicted.  OTOH, it's really bad news for high risk populations.


----------



## Deset Gled

FrogReaver said:


> Is there anything wrong in the Fox News article?



Some people (myself included) prefer to not direct any traffic towards them.


----------



## FrogReaver

Deset Gled said:


> Some people (myself included) prefer to not direct any traffic towards them.




LOL


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> Is there anything wrong in the Fox News article?




If Fox News and The New York Times agree, then there's probably not anything wrong in the Fox article.  But in general, relying on one news source leaves you with no error checking.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> IMO.. the higher the total the better.




Depends on what aspect of the issues you're considering.  F'rex, if you are hoping for long-term immunity, yes, more people having it already is good.  If you aren't banking on that, the more people that have it now, the longer it will take to reduce numbers to a point where normalcy can start returning.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Does a positive antibody test generally mean the infection is over and done with? Or does it simply indicate exposure, so any given positive result might either asymptomatic/recovered _or_ a future illness or death?


----------



## Kaodi

Maybe this was addressed somewhere in the last, um, 116 pages, but I have been somewhat surprised that there has not really been an increase in PbP games since this began. Are people just looking ahead, given that these games tend to go longer than the coronavorizon, or is PbP just kinda on the way out when livechat is an option?


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> Yah.  The vaccine induces your immune system to produce antibodies.  The vaccine is effective so long as you have enough antibodies to protect you from the virus.
> 
> Edit to add - This is one of the places where "detectable" and "effective" matter.  A study or two have claimed they _detected_ antibodies even decades after exposure to some flu strains.  But that doesn't speak to effective immunity.




It seems to me there are 2 primary reasons we lose "immunity" to the flu virus (i'd prefer the term resistance)
1.  Our antibody levels become to low to properly fight off the virus again.  Time will do this.  In this case we lose resistance/immunity because we don't keep it.
2.  The flu virus mutates and even though we still have enough antibodies to fight the old variation the new variation is different enough that we are now able to catch it.

I've seen nothing in the articles you cited and your reasoning to believe that losing immunity to the flu in 6 months is more about #1 than #2.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Kaodi said:


> Maybe this was addressed somewhere in the last, um, 116 pages, but I have been somewhat surprised that there has not really been an increase in PbP games since this began. Are people just looking ahead, given that these games tend to go longer than the coronavorizon, or is PbP just kinda on the way out when livechat is an option?



The one PbP I was looking at didn't seem like it was well organized. Since I have never played in that format before, I needed it to be run by somebody that was experienced.


----------



## FrogReaver

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Does a positive antibody test generally mean the infection is over and done with? Or does it simply indicate exposure, so any given positive result might either asymptomatic/recovered _or_ a future illness or death?




My understanding is exposure.  Though you would see number of traditional tested cases be going up if the number of people with it were increasing so I think we already have sufficient evidence to believe the antibody tests mostly represent asymptomatic/recovered.

However, if this possibility wasn't accounted for in the antibody tested subpopulation then I'm not sure how meaningful the results would be.  It probably wouldn't take many people with it that were presymptomatic in that study to greatly lower the estimated number of people that have had it.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> If Fox News and The New York Times agree, then there's probably not anything wrong in the Fox article.  But in general, relying on one news source leaves you with no error checking.




Of course.  That's why I view all - even the ones that don't often share my opinions.


----------



## tomBitonti

FrogReaver said:


> Is there anything wrong in the Fox News article?




The data in the Fox article matches the NY Times article.

There are faults, though, in that the article states a conclusion which cannot be reached from the data.  One generally wouldn't state in such strong language an uncertain conclusion.  In this case, the text "have had"  is too definite, especially since the text is in the main clause of the title, and "suggest" is in a secondary clause.

A key observation which must be emphasized is that the sample population is biased (in a statistical sense): The sample is of persons who are out and about, and one quickly finds an alternate hypothesis to the suggested state percentage, which is that the sample rate overcounts the proportion of positive results because the sample is of a more highly exposed subset of the population.  For example, a household might have just one person who is out and about, while the rest of the household more strictly follows distancing guidelines.

That is just one alternate hypothesis: Testing must be done uniformly across a the state population to really know.

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> Depends on what aspect of the issues you're considering.  F'rex, if you are hoping for long-term immunity, yes, more people having it already is good.




Not just for long term immunity.  The higher the number of people with it - the lower the mortality rate.  If the mortality rate is low enough we no longer have to worry nearly as much about this as much more people can get it and spread it around without causing massive death and overburdening our hospitals.



> If you aren't banking on that, the more people that have it now, the longer it will take to reduce numbers to a point where normalcy can start returning.




I think the more people that already have it the more likely we get to and are able to maintain normalcy.  I say that due to these possibilities.

1.  Possibility of Long term Immunity (6 months+) in more people
2.  Possibility of Shorter term Immunity (Less than 6 months) in more people
3.  Possibility of much lower than previously believed mortality rate (due to vastly more people already having it)

All of these things would be positive possibilities for this to end soon.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Does a positive antibody test generally mean the infection is over and done with? Or does it simply indicate exposure, so any given positive result might either asymptomatic/recovered _or_ a future illness or death?



We don’t know for sure yet.  

There have been reports of people who were declared recovered who have subsequently tested positive again.  There’s a half-dozen or more reasons why this could be, and they’re still trying to sort out the real reason or reasons.


----------



## Nagol

FrogReaver said:


> It seems to me there are 2 primary reasons we lose "immunity" to the flu virus (i'd prefer the term resistance)
> 1.  Our antibody levels become to low to properly fight off the virus again.  Time will do this.  In this case we lose resistance/immunity because we don't keep it.
> 2.  The flu virus mutates and even though we still have enough antibodies to fight the old variation the new variation is different enough that we are now able to catch it.
> 
> I've seen nothing in the articles you cited and your reasoning to believe that losing immunity to the flu in 6 months is more about #1 than #2.




They're testing against the same strains.  No mutation.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Products I have found you should be careful using when wearing masks:

1) breath mints 

2) strongly scented mustache/beard/skin products 

Both can get you a little light headed if you use them too soon before donning your kit.


----------



## Nagol

M


Dannyalcatraz said:


> Products I have found you should be careful using when wearing masks:
> 
> 1) breath mints
> 
> 2) strongly scented mustache/beard/skin products
> 
> Both can get you a little light headed if you use them too soon before donning your kit.



Masks work poorly with facial hair.  It's hard to get and maintain a proper seal.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Of course.  That's why I view all - even the ones that don't often share my opinions.




 That's fine up to a point. I already know what's going to be on Fox or Huffington Post. 

 Main use I find for Fox is how bad is something. If they're not reporting on it or have it in the small print with some other clickbait title it's probably serious if they're downplaying it. 

 Reporters also ask some stupid questions. Our PM point blank answered a question and then they hit her with variants and got the same answer. 

  Also sometimes what's not said and how it's presented matters. When things started she did a US type presidential speech with a photo of our wartime leader. Our equivalent of FDR. Such speeches are very rare here. 

 She was invoking the war years. We're all in this together, look after each other etc. Also not missed was the level of government intervention in the economy. The emergency powers had never been used before. 

 Message sent though the media picked up on it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

My beard & ‘stache- even slightly shaggier than usual, do not protrude to the edges  of the masks we have.


----------



## FrogReaver

Nagol said:


> They're testing against the same strains.  No mutation.



It’s not that I don’t trust you but, citation please?


----------



## Nagol

FrogReaver said:


> It’s not that I don’t trust you but, citation please?












						Decline in influenza vaccine effectiveness with time after vaccination, Navarre, Spain, season 2011/12 - PubMed
					

This study evaluates the influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing laboratory-confirmed cases in Navarre, Spain, in the 2011/12 season in which the peak was delayed until week 7 of 2012. We conducted a test-negative case–control study. Patients with influenza-like illness in hospitals...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				




The timeframe was <100 days and the geographical position was unchanged.  I.e. same strains prevalent.

And another: Waning vaccine protection against influenza A (H3N2) illness in children and older adults during a single season.  - PubMed - NCBI

ETA:  I have no idea how I quoted an old message initially.  Fixed it.


----------



## Nagol

Dannyalcatraz said:


> My beard & ‘stache- even slightly shaggier than usual, do not protrude to the edges  of the masks we have.




I was out yesterday and saw a guy with a beard who had the mask covering the beard, but not his nose and mouth.  I guess the beard was sick and needed the restriction more than he did?


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> Reporters also ask some stupid questions. Our PM point blank answered a question and then they hit her with variants and got the same answer.



The White House Press Corps does that on a daily basis.  For 45 minutes, in one instance.


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> The White House Press Corps does that on a daily basis.  For 45 minutes, in one instance.




 Yeah I stopped watching the daily briefings and just get the condensed version.

 Most of it is the director general of health.  They're sticking his face on tee shirts and he's become a sex symbol for some of the older ladies.

 Older generations had photos of our wartime leader, we found ones in my grandmothers belonging when she passed in 2002. Wouldn't be surprised if Jacinda gets the same treatment.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Nagol said:


> I was out yesterday and saw a guy with a beard who had the mask covering the beard, but not his nose and mouth.  I guess the beard was sick and needed the restriction more than he did?



Maybe his beard was really, really nasty, and he's trying to protect others from it.


----------



## Henry

“Doctor Mike” Varshavski had a really nice, succinct video on antibody tests and on vaccine immunity in general that I enjoyed - it’s pretty much some of the same info being talked about here, including qualitative testing, quantitative testing, and the usefulness of mass testing on a population:


----------



## FrogReaver

Nagol said:


> Decline in influenza vaccine effectiveness with time after vaccination, Navarre, Spain, season 2011/12 - PubMed
> 
> 
> This study evaluates the influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing laboratory-confirmed cases in Navarre, Spain, in the 2011/12 season in which the peak was delayed until week 7 of 2012. We conducted a test-negative case–control study. Patients with influenza-like illness in hospitals...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The timeframe was <100 days and the geographical position was unchanged.  I.e. same strains prevalent.




The first article states: "Most characterized viruses did not match the vaccine strains."  That's contrary to your assertion above.  I see no evidence in that article of whether the vaccine was less effective due to fewer antibodies over time or due to other flu strains prevalent in the area.



> And another: Waning vaccine protection against influenza A (H3N2) illness in children and older adults during a single season.  - PubMed - NCBI
> 
> ETA:  I have no idea how I quoted an old message initially.  Fixed it.




This article also doesn't note whether it's a different strain of influenza A that infected people later in the season than the vaccine was designed to prevent.

Do you have any evidence that actually supports your conclusion.  I find the premise fascinating but I've seen nothing in those articles or anywhere else to confirm it.


----------



## Eltab

Nagol said:


> I was out yesterday and saw a guy with a beard who had the mask covering the beard, but not his nose and mouth.  I guess the beard was sick and needed the restriction more than he did?



 "I gotta find a barber to fix this, how embarrassing"


----------



## Nagol

FrogReaver said:


> The first article states: "Most characterized viruses did not match the vaccine strains."  That's contrary to your assertion above.  I see no evidence in that article of whether the vaccine was less effective due to fewer antibodies over time or due to other flu strains prevalent in the area.
> 
> 
> 
> This article also doesn't note whether it's a different strain of influenza A that infected people later in the season than the vaccine was designed to prevent.
> 
> Do you have any evidence that actually supports your conclusion.  I find the premise fascinating but I've seen nothing in those articles or anywhere else to confirm it.




I'm not going to keep digging through scholarly articles.  Feel free to do your own research.

Immunization Action Coalition says:
How long does immunity from influenza vaccine last?
Protection from influenza vaccine is thought to persist for at least 6 months. Protection declines over time because of *waning antibody levels *and because of changes in circulating influenza viruses from year to year. For persons who require only 1 dose of influenza vaccine for the season, yearly vaccination (i.e. in July and August) is likely to be associated with suboptimal immunity before the end of the influenza season, particularly among older adults.


----------



## FrogReaver

Nagol said:


> I'm not going to dig through the scholarly articles.  Feel free to do your own research.




You were the one with the assertion.



> Here's what the CDC says:
> How long does immunity from influenza vaccine last?
> Protection from influenza vaccine is thought to persist for at least 6 months. Protection declines over time because of *waning antibody levels *and *because of changes in circulating influenza viruses* from year to year. For persons who require only 1 dose of influenza vaccine for the season, yearly vaccination (i.e. in July and August) is likely to be associated with suboptimal immunity before the end of the influenza season, particularly among older adults.




I was able to finally find my answer on google.  Vaccination and antibodies - myDr.com.au

I think this article explains it very well.  Antibodies last weeks.  Memory B Cells last much longer (typically).  When a Memory B Cell detects the virus again the immune response is much quicker which leads to a much better outcome - thus the reason for potentially lifetime immunity to many viruses.

Why does anyone think our typical immune response to covid-19 will be particularly different than normal?  Why will Memory B cells not identify the virus and have the immune system spring into action and protect us for a long time to come?  That's the science part of this discussion I don't get.  I mean I get that it's not proven they will - but there's also nothing to suggest anything about this virus will be vastly different from pretty much every other virus we have ever encountered.

Also of note is that the CDC quote you supplied agrees with me, that VE is a combination of antibodies and virus mutations.  It never says which is actually the cause of VE declining for the flu in 6 months.


----------



## FrogReaver

On a side note:  Is anyone else missing the report a post option?

An example of my screen:  (not that I intended to report this post - just an example)


----------



## ccs

Eltab said:


> The White House Press Corps does that on a daily basis.  For 45 minutes, in one instance.




Yeah and they get any # of different answers, snark, crap that doesn't apply to anything, etc.  It's like pulling the lever on a slot machine.


----------



## FrogReaver

ccs said:


> Yeah and they get any # of different answers, snark, crap that doesn't apply to anything, etc.  It's like pulling the lever on a slot machine.




They could actually ask better questions most the time.  #DeclineOfJournalism


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

FrogReaver said:


> Why does anyone think our typical immune response to covid-19 will be particularly different than normal? Why will Memory B cells not identify the virus and have the immune system spring into action and protect us for a long time to come? That's the science part of this discussion I don't get.



I don't think people believe covid-19 necessarily _is _different. It's just that docs don't know yet, for lack of data. That's the science in action, right now. It's simply too early to tell... hence the great caution.


FrogReaver said:


> but there's also nothing to suggest anything about this virus will be vastly different from pretty much every other virus we have ever encountered.



My understanding is that there _is_ a fair bit of worry that this virus could be a bit nastier than many others. Apparently doctors are seeing that it impacts quite a few of the body's system aside from the lungs, including heart, kidneys, and brain-- even toes. Here's a pretty comprehensive overview of current understanding, about a week old: 




__





						Science | AAAS
					






					www.sciencemag.org


----------



## Eltab

ccs said:


> Yeah and they get any # of different answers, snark, crap that doesn't apply to anything, etc.  It's like pulling the lever on a slot machine.



I think with each Presidential election, not only the occupant of the White House but the individuals who get Press passes inside should change.  I am positive there are more than just 30 journalists who could hold down that job.

For instance having Jim Cramer, who made his career in and around the stock market (and also has journalist experience), asking about the economy would offer meaningful questions that DC Desk Larry would never think of.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> On a side note:  Is anyone else missing the report a post option?





You might want to PM Morrus.


----------



## Umbran

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Does a positive antibody test generally mean the infection is over and done with? Or does it simply indicate exposure, so any given positive result might either asymptomatic/recovered _or_ a future illness or death?




No, not at all.  There is a separate test that detects presence of viral RNA to see if you are currently infected.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> I've seen nothing in the articles you cited and your reasoning to believe that losing immunity to the flu in 6 months is more about #1 than #2.




Some antigen shift is possible, and may account for some of the loss of effectiveness.

However, it is noted in the article I linked that vaccine effectiveness has been seen to drop with time more quickly in older people than in younger people.  That can't be due to antigen shift, or any quality of the virus, but instead must lie in the human immune system, and how those systems in young folks keep it up better than those of older folks.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Reporters also ask some stupid questions. Our PM point blank answered a question and then they hit her with variants and got the same answer.




It isn't stupid.  It is a form of probing, a fairly standard interview technique.  If you ask the same question in different ways, and the answer changes, that is an indication that the subject's story is made up, and they aren't keeping it straight.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> It isn't stupid.  It is a form of probing, a fairly standard interview technique.  If you ask the same question in different ways, and the answer changes, that is an indication that the subject's story is made up, and they aren't keeping it straight.



You see it *a lot* on polls & questionnaires.   I know of one particular political poll that asked the same question 3 different ways, and got 3 answers that were significantly different from each other.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The things you never think of because you are who you are and not someone else:








						Trader Joe's employee who is deaf overcomes struggle to communicate with customers in masks
					

Matthew Simmons praises his coworkers and customers while overcoming communication obstacles put forth by coronavirus safety protocols.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> It isn't stupid.  It is a form of probing, a fairly standard interview technique.  If you ask the same question in different ways, and the answer changes, that is an indication that the subject's story is made up, and they aren't keeping it straight.




And that's your justification of it?  The press aren't interrogators.  They shouldn't be using interrogation techniques to ask questions at a press conference.  It's downright hostile - no matter which political party or individual it's directed at.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> You see it *a lot* on polls & questionnaires.   I know of one particular political poll that asked the same question 3 different ways, and got 3 answers that were significantly different from each other.




Isn't that because they realize that the way they ask questions about your opinions and thoughts and feelings often change regarding how they word the question?  I've typically seen that done and then the score for that parameter was a combined function of all the similar questions.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> Some antigen shift is possible, and may account for some of the loss of effectiveness.
> 
> However, it is noted in the article I linked that vaccine effectiveness has been seen to drop with time more quickly in older people than in younger people.  That can't be due to antigen shift, or any quality of the virus, but instead must lie in the human immune system, and how those systems in young folks keep it up better than those of older folks.




This is a good point - though I would have to look at the study again to make sure it was set up in such a way that such a conclusion could be drawn.  Depending on exact setup it potentially could be attributed solely to young people having better immune systems absent any vaccine provided immunity/resistance.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> And that's your justification of it?  The press aren't interrogators.  They shouldn't be using interrogation techniques to ask questions at a press conference.  It's downright hostile - no matter which political party or individual it's directed at.



IMHO, interrogators is _exactly_ what the press are if they’re doing their job right,  It’s not always appropriate, but sometimes necessary.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> IMHO, interrogators is _exactly_ what the press are if they’re doing their job right,  It’s not always appropriate, but sometimes necessary.




IMO it's never necessary and does more damage than good and to top it off their bias shines through when they only use such methods against 1 political party.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Isn't that because they realize that the way they ask questions about your opinions and thoughts and feelings often change regarding how they word the question?  I've typically seen that done and then the score for that parameter was a combined function of all the similar questions.



That’s one reason.

Other reasons include testing the respondents’ actual understanding of the question asked.  Sometimes, people will answer a question even if they don’t actually understand it.  Sometimes people are unfamiliar with the particular terminology used, but again, would still answer.

To use a nonpolitical example, a pollster might ask:

”How many people has SARS-CoV-2 killed?”

then

”How many people have died from Covid-19?”

then

”How many fatalities have been caused by the novel coronavirus?”

Getting radically different answers to those three question could indicate the efficacy of government healthcare briefings.  It could also be an indicator of what kind of news sources the respondents favor.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> IMO it's never necessary and does more damage than good and to top it off their bias shines through when they only use such methods against 1 political party.



If you think only one party gets to field pointed questions from the press, I can’t help you.

As Umbran pointed out, if journalists using interrogation techniques actually expose the mendacity of elected officials and their agents, that’s a good thing.  It’s one of the fundamental reasons you want to have a free press.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That’s one reason.
> 
> Other reasons include testing the respondents’ actual understanding of the question asked.  Sometimes, people will answer a question even if they don’t actually understand it.  Sometimes people are unfamiliar with the particular terminology used, but again, would still answer.
> 
> To use a nonpolitical example, a pollster might ask:
> 
> ”How many people has SARS-CoV-2 killed?”
> 
> then
> 
> ”How many people have died from Covid-19?”
> 
> then
> 
> ”How many fatalities have been caused by the novel coronavirus?”
> 
> Getting radically different answers to those three question could indicate the efficacy of government healthcare briefings.  It could also be an indicator of what kind of news sources the respondents favor.




I could see legitimate reasons to answer each of those questions differently.  

1.  0, it's the phenomonia that kills them.
2.  current deathcount from X source
3.  current deathcount + all other deaths that would have been prevented had covid-19 not been ongoing.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> If you think only one party gets to field pointed questions from the press, I can’t help you.
> 
> As Umbran pointed out, if journalists using interrogation techniques actually expose the mendacity of elected officials and their agents, that’s a good thing.  It’s one of the fundamental reasons you want to have a free press.




Pointed questions are not an issue.  Repitious questions are.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> I could see legitimate reasons to answer each of those questions differently.
> 
> 1.  0, it's the phenomonia that kills them.
> 2.  current deathcount from X source
> 3.  current deathcount + all other deaths that would have been prevented had covid-19 not been ongoing.



Like I said, the different answers reveal things about the person answering.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Pointed questions are not an issue.  Repitious questions are.



If the answer given is unsatisfactory- which it may be for several reasons- repeating it is perfectly fine.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Like I said, the different answers reveal things about the person answering.




Right, but not in an interrogative sort of way.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Right, but not in an interrogative sort of way.



Let’s just say you and I don’t see eye to eye on that.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> If the answer given is unsatisfactory- which it may be for several reasons- repeating it is perfectly fine.




IMO, not for the reasons we are discussing


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> IMO, not for the reasons we are discussing



See post #2368, this thread.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> See post #2368, this thread.




Rude and uncalled for.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FrogReaver said:


> Rude and uncalled for.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


>




But the question is, can you actually pull off that face??  lol


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The expression & facial hair?  Yes.

The hairdo? That level of polish?  Not on my BEST day...which was probably in 1991.


----------



## FrogReaver

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The expression & facial hair?  Yes.
> 
> The hairdo? That level of polish?  Not on my BEST day...which was probably in 1991.




LOL.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The expression & facial hair?  Yes.
> 
> The hairdo? That level of polish?  Not on my BEST day...which was probably in 1991.




I turned 13 in 91.

 Entire teenage years in 90's. The music....

Mein gott I've turned into my parents. Pass me beer 5. 

Not a bad drop.


----------



## FrogReaver

From Worldometer

"New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a *13.9%* had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9%* actual infection rate *statewide (*21.2% in New York City*), which translates to an estimate of about* 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State *(*10 times more than* the about 270,000 *cases that have been detected and reported officially*). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%"


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> From Worldometer
> 
> "New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a *13.9%* had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9%* actual infection rate *statewide (*21.2% in New York City*), which translates to an estimate of about* 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State *(*10 times more than* the about 270,000 *cases that have been detected and reported officially*). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%"




 As far as pandemics go Covids not that bad. Even in the worst places you have a 99%+ chance of being alright. 

 Didn't get economic collapse 1918/19 that took another decade. If one in 200 M&Ms were poison would you eat M&M?


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> As far as pandemics go Covids not that bad. Even in the worst places you have a 99%+ chance of being alright.
> 
> Didn't get economic collapse 1918/19 that took another decade. If one in 200 M&Ms were poison would you eat M&M?




Every M&M is poision and I still eat them


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> If one in 200 M&Ms were poison would you eat M&M?




If I were a captured spy and my cyanide tooth had fallen out while being arrested?  Maaaaybe...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> I turned 13 in 91.




In 1991, I was in my second semester of my first year of law school, I was still in reasonable shape, and I had _serious _hair.

I dare say, I was within arm’s reach of being sexy...but I rolled a 2 when I grabbed at it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> If I were a captured spy and my cyanide tooth had fallen out while being arrested?  Maaaaybe...




 Peanut and Crispy M&Ms....... 

  Here's it's about one in 300 000 M&Ms.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Peanut and Crispy M&Ms.......
> 
> Here's it's about one in 300 000 M&Ms.



Well, given my mild chocolate allergy, 300k M&Ms wound probably still do me in, sooooo...


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In 1991, I was in my second semester of my first year of law school, I was still in reasonable shape, and I had _serious _hair.
> 
> I dare say, I was within arm’s reach of being sexy...but I rolled a 2 when I grabbed at it.




 I would time shiift back to 2005 if I could. 

 Good money, hair, fit, fun, happy etc. Last hurrah of the 90s bands be as well.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well, given my mild chocolate allergy, 300k M&Ms wound probably still do me in, sooooo...




  I don't eat that many. Better options/ chocolate.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I haven’t had M&Ms for YEARS.  I’m just talking suicide options. 

_Because_ my allergy to chocolate is mild, I haven given it up entirely.  Instead, I stick to my faves: original Toblerone, Lindt Hazlenut, Hershey's with almonds, Reese’s PB cups, Kit Kat bars, truffles from certain chocolatiers, etc. 

And I eat it in small amounts at a time.  A single chocolate bar might last a week.

Edit: haven’t had much in 2020- not a good time to wheeze in public.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I haven’t had M&Ms for YEARS.  I’m just talking suicide options.
> 
> _Because_ my allergy to chocolate is mild, I haven given it up entirely.  Instead, I stick to my faves: original Toblerone, Lindt Hazlenut, Hershey's with almonds, Reese’s PB cups, Kit Kat bars, truffles from certain chocolatiers, etc.
> 
> And I eat it in small amounts at a time.  A single chocolate bar might last a week.
> 
> Edit: haven’t had much in 2020- not a good time to wheeze in public.




 Lindts one of my favourites, Tobelrone is good, Reese's cups are great, Hershey's better than Cadbury now would eat.


----------



## FrogReaver

So how is Sweden faring these days?


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> So how is Sweden faring these days?




Per capita badly last I looked. Worse than USA.


----------



## FrogReaver

I found this interview with Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government very interesting.


Best question he asked: what is the exist strategy to the lockdowns?


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> I found this interview with Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government very interesting.
> 
> 
> Best question he asked: what is the exist strategy to the lockdowns?




Varies by country. Our one is to wipe Covid out. YMMV.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> Varies by country. Our one is to wipe Covid out. YMMV.




Assume you do wipe it out in your country.  Do you think you can keep it out of your country forever?  Or is it mass lockdown every time it resurfaces?


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Assume you do wipe it out in your country.  Do you think you can keep it out of your country forever?  Or is it mass lockdown every time it resurfaces?




The borders are closed. Only people who can get in are residents and citizens mandatory quarantines.

 Assuming you can even get a flight.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> The borders are closed. Only people who can get in are residents and citizens mandatory quarantines.
> 
> Assuming you can even get a flight.



I propose that NZ appoint a civilian position- The Ripley- whose job it is to oversee the admission of people into the country.






> Ripley : Wait a minute. If we let it in, the ship could be infected. You know the quarantine procedure. Twenty-four hours for decontamination.
> 
> Dallas : He could die in twenty-four hours. Open the hatch.
> 
> Ripley : Listen to me, if we break quarantine, we could all die.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> The borders are closed. Only people who can get in are residents and citizens mandatory quarantines.
> 
> Assuming you can even get a flight.




What happens when the borders stopped being closed?


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> What happens when the borders stopped being closed?




 The borders are closed indefinitely until there's a vaccine. 
 Freight can still get in. The tourism industry has ceased to exist. 

 Put it this way if I was married to an American I couldn't get her into the country. If she had residency and could get a flight somehow she could get in.

 You can theoretically get in if you are qualified in a very narrow range of fields.

 A few flights gave also gotten in to pick up people no arrivals though except for a trickle of citizens.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> The borders are closed indefinitely until there's a vaccine.
> Freight can still get in. The tourism industry has ceased to exist.
> 
> Put it this way if I was married to an American I couldn't get her into the country. If she had residency and could get a flight somehow she could get in.
> 
> You can theoretically get in if you are qualified in a very narrow range of fields.
> 
> A few flights gave also gotten in to pick up people no arrivals though except for a trickle of citizens.




You seriously believe your country will keep its borders closed for 2-4 years?  Because that's the likely timeline for a viable vaccine.  Never minding actually producing, distributing and administering it.  And, how do you figure that freight is getting in, but not people?  Someone's gotta drive that boat.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> You seriously believe your country will keep its borders closed for 2-4 years?  Because that's the likely timeline for a viable vaccine.  Never minding actually producing, distributing and administering it.  And, how do you figure that freight is getting in, but not people?  Someone's gotta drive that boat.




The boat crews aren't allowed to disembark. 

 I've worked at the port locally. With cranes etc you don't have to get that close to people. Everything is in container's. Cruise ships were banned pre lockdown.

 Bored. Draw a Kiwi. 









						Pilot plots giant flight radar kiwi over Waikato
					

Over a couple of beers, Scott Montagu sketched out a flight plan that'd bring a little joy to a world awash in coronavirus.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Imaculata

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I propose that NZ appoint a civilian position- The Ripley- whose job it is to oversee the admission of people into the country.




I'll go one step further, and propose that they should appoint Sigourney Weaver herself, with a flamethrower, for that function.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> "New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a *13.9%* had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9%* actual infection rate *statewide...




Oh, you who like questioning methodologies, should note...

They only tested people who were out and about at grocery stores.  Selection bias is one of the most basic issues of statistical sampling.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> This is a good point - though I would have to look at the study again to make sure it was set up in such a way that such a conclusion could be drawn.




Knock yourself out.  Please consider offering yourself up to the various journals as a reviewer.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> IMHO, interrogators is exactly what the press are if they’re doing their job right,  It’s not always appropriate, but *sometimes* necessary.



Emphasis added to get IMHO.


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> Oh, you who like questioning methodologies, should note...
> 
> They only tested people who were out and about at grocery stores.  Selection bias is one of the most basic issues of statistical sampling.



At least is more complete than in my country. Since very little testing is done, the actual authorities have conceded they only detect one in eight cases, so while the official numbers are over 10,000 contagions, there are at least 83,000 in the wild.


----------



## Zardnaar

It's probably a safe bet in most countries the actual numbers are unknown.

They can't even determine the death rate from bodies as they can't keep up in the worst hit areas.


 All you really need to know is stay at home if you can.


----------



## Deset Gled

FrogReaver said:


> Pointed questions are not an issue.  Repitious questions are.




I think a major point is being overlooked here.  One of the main reasons for reporters asking the same question over and over again is that the news outlets all want a clip of their guy asking the question.  Often, it has nothing to do with politics, phrasing, or anything interrogative.  It's just branding for the different news channels.

Interestingly enough, this practice first really became notable in the world of sports.  Nowadays, it's written into athletes contracts that they have to do press conferences and answer inane repeated questions as part of their salary.  But there are some old clips of athletes going off on reporters about "I just answered that!".

Now, the fact that modern political reporting is beginning to resemble sports coverage... that's a longer discussion.


----------



## Umbran

MoonSong said:


> At least is more complete than in my country.




There's a big point to consider here.  In terms of planning and responding to a crisis, what's better - to have little data, but know and acknowledge that fact, or to have some data, and act as if it is representative, when it may not be?


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> There's a big point to consider here.  In terms of planning and responding to a crisis, what's better - to have little data, but know and acknowledge that fact, or to have some data, and act as if it is representative, when it may not be?




seems like there’s a third option.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> seems like there’s a third option.




There are an infinite number of options.  I was comparing two of them.


----------



## FrogReaver

Deset Gled said:


> I think a major point is being overlooked here.  One of the main reasons for reporters asking the same question over and over again is that the news outlets all want a clip of their guy asking the question.  Often, it has nothing to do with politics, phrasing, or anything interrogative.  It's just branding for the different news channels.
> 
> Interestingly enough, this practice first really became notable in the world of sports.  Nowadays, it's written into athletes contracts that they have to do press conferences and answer inane repeated questions as part of their salary.  But there are some old clips of athletes going off on reporters about "I just answered that!".
> 
> Now, the fact that modern political reporting is beginning to resemble sports coverage... that's a longer discussion.




if the goal was to have their face be the one asking the Question that would be okay... but that’s not why they do it.


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> There are an infinite number of options.  I was comparing two of them.




And I was just pointing out that you weren’t comparing the right 2.


----------



## Istbor

FrogReaver said:


> if the goal was to have their face be the one asking the Question that would be okay... but that’s not why they do it.



Oh you are a reporter now too.


----------



## FrogReaver

great article on Sweden. 

Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach 'herd immunity' in weeks


----------



## FrogReaver

Istbor said:


> Oh you are a reporter now too.




No. I’m not that mindless.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> No. I’m not that mindless.




*Mod Note:*
You've made your lack of respect for a great many people abundantly clear.  It is time for you to find a thread in which you can talk to and about folks who you do, in fact, respect.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Re: Sweden--  Here's an article from today on the same topic that goes into a bit more depth, including a few local experts' differing views:








						Scientist behind Sweden's coronavirus strategy says country better prepared for second wave due to not having lockdown
					

The country's public health agency claims its capital Stockholm, where the majority of the cases have been reported, may have already passed the peak of the outbreak.




					www.newsweek.com
				




Also this one (a few days old) comparing and contrasting responses by Sweden and other Scandinavian coutries:








						Sweden has nearly 10 times the number of COVID-19-related deaths than its Nordic neighbors. Here's where it went wrong.
					

Sweden, which has yet to order any lockdown amid the novel coronavirus pandemic, has seen 14,777 COVID-19 cases and 1,580 deaths from the virus.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Re: Sweden--  Here's an article from today on the same topic that goes into a bit more depth, including a few local experts' differing views:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Scientist behind Sweden's coronavirus strategy says country better prepared for second wave due to not having lockdown
> 
> 
> The country's public health agency claims its capital Stockholm, where the majority of the cases have been reported, may have already passed the peak of the outbreak.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsweek.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Also this one (a few days old) comparing and contrasting responses by Sweden and other Scandinavian coutries:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sweden has nearly 10 times the number of COVID-19-related deaths than its Nordic neighbors. Here's where it went wrong.
> 
> 
> Sweden, which has yet to order any lockdown amid the novel coronavirus pandemic, has seen 14,777 COVID-19 cases and 1,580 deaths from the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com




Sweden's population is a lot smaller than USA.

Australia double Sweden's population. Total deaths 79.

NZ half Sweden's population. Deaths 17.

Sweden 2152.









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,898,689 Cases and 2,713,580 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				




For a few days our cases were doubling every two days then it flattened for a week then declined.

Virus doesn't scare me on a personal level. It does for others though.

The but but look at Sweden crowd has shut up though.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Zardnaar said:


> Sweden's population is a lot smaller than USA.
> 
> Australia double Sweden's population. Total deaths 79.
> 
> NZ half Sweden's population. Deaths 17.
> 
> Sweden 2152.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,898,689 Cases and 2,713,580 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> For a few days our cases were doubling every two days then it flattened for a week then declined.



Yeah. That second article I posted notes that Sweden's per capita fatalities are a few times higher than Norway's or Finland's; and even a bit higher that US's. The main positive mentioned was that their economy should be easier to spin back up when they ease their more limited restrictions. 
Whether that makes it "worth it" is a different question that I doubt anyone will honestly be able to answer for quite a while.


----------



## Zardnaar

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Yeah. That second article I posted notes that Sweden's per capita fatalities are a few times higher than Norway's or Finland's; and even a bit higher that US's. The main positive mentioned was that their economy should be easier to spin back up when they ease their more limited restrictions.
> Whether that makes it "worth it" is a different question that I doubt anyone will honestly be able to answer for quite a while.




Sweden's on the short list of countries that will bounce back the best.

We're number 12.

My money would be on Norway though.

If you're Norwegian you've won the genetic lottery. I think they could buy Sweden and they've enough money to make a US president pay attention.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Re: problems with Sweden’s reaching herd immunity in weeks:

1) if Covid-19’s R0 value is as high as they think it is, they need to reach an exposure rate of @60-70% of their population.

2) between the number of asymptomatic carriers and recent revelations as to how long Covid-19 has _actually _been circulating, there are definitely unknowable variables in determining the actual level of exposure.

3) since we don’t even know the strength or duration of post-exposure immunity to Covid-19, “herd immunity” might be essentially worthless, especially considering the number of deaths that would entail.

4) with new short-term effects of infection being unveiled almost weekly and (obviously) no data on long-term effects, aiming for herd immunity via exposure versus inoculation may be unnecessarily risky.

That said, it‘s true that Sweden may ultimately be _mostly _right.  If we don‘t develop any treatments or vaccines for Covid-19 in the near future- or *ever* (coronaviruses are formidable foes for researchers)- humanity won’t have many options beyond accepting occasional disruptions from Covid-19 outbreaks.  But I qualify that with “mostly” because if that is the reality we have to deal with, Sweden’s approach is still probably too laissez faire to be sustainable in the long run.  Adapting to a world where we coexist with Covid-19 will require serious thought about altering the way we all do things.


----------



## ad_hoc

Imagine if New York State didn't put lockdown measures into place and just went with the 'everyone gets it right away' option.

Even if Sweden comes out of this without their entire healthcare system collapsing (which its starting strength helps a lot here) they've still made the wrong decision.

If I bet straight up that I will roll a 20 on a d20 I have made a bad bet, whether the outcome is I roll a 20 or not.

Right now what is up in the air is whether Sweden will be worse off for not having lockdown procedures or whether it will be catastrophic.

They're fortunate enough that it is looking to be the former, but that doesn't mean theirs is a good model.

Saskatchewan is the first Province to create plans for gradual reopening in Canada. They have less than 10 new confirmed cases each day for the past 2 weeks so I think that is reasonable. Even then, they are still not going back to 'business as usual' straight away.


----------



## Zardnaar

Herd immunity is a bad idea.

If you don't mind paying the blood price Sweden's approach might work long term.

Pandemics usually abate when they run out of victims.

If you front load the death toll you have an advantage to recover coming out the other end.

If there's no vaccine every other country has that decision to make.

It's not the approach I would pick but it's one way of dealing with it.

If Covids the new normal the other way of beating it is same way our ancestors did.

So yeah they might not hit immunity numbers but the numbers will go down due to running out of vulnerable people.

It's the second most efficient way of dealing with it assuming you don't mind the death toll.

The other approach is spread it out if containment fails. Still going to have people die but you'll still be dealing with it in October.

At this point containments really only viable in a few countries.

Unknown stuff.

Vaccine
Wave 2 and 3.

Some countries can't lockdown at least efficiently. India, Brazil.

Won't know until 2021 or beyond.


----------



## Zardnaar

Derp. Could be worse.


----------



## Zardnaar

Same as yesterday.
5 new cases one death.

77% recovery rate, 343  active cases.









						Covid-19 update 25 April: Five new cases, one death
					

Today there are five new cases of Covid-19 and a woman in her 70s has died.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




18 deaths total. Doesn't appear to be any community spread.

 Contact tracing seems to work just have to jump on it early.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Herd immunity via inoculation is a good idea.

Herd immunity via exposure is a good idea if you don’t have other options.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Herd immunity via inoculation is a good idea.
> 
> Herd immunity via exposure is a good idea if you don’t have other options.




It's not really an idea then is it? 

It's just what is.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> It's not really an idea then is it?
> 
> It's just what is.




It's a choice, probably not the best choice as your first option.

We've almost eliminated it and Covid barely touched us. Plan is to wait for vaccine.

But if there's no vaccine and the rest of the world is exposed we're gonna look stupid.

We'll have to go through this all over again in a year or two after everyone else has already been through it.

If there is a vaccine yay we did great.

There is also doubt that we can wipe it out. Messaging has changed slightly. Elimination doesn't mean 0 cases.

Might get 0 cases then have a flair up in a month or two.


----------



## ad_hoc

Zardnaar said:


> It's a choice, probably not the best choice as your first option.




'if you have no other options'

If there are no options then there is no choice.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> 'if you have no other options'
> 
> If there are no options then there is no choice.




 Well you have bad choices. You can half ass it and hope for the best.


----------



## ad_hoc

Zardnaar said:


> Well you have bad choices. You can half ass it and hope for the best.




Do you know what you are responding to and why?


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> Do you know what you are responding to and why?




 Yes. Wasn't very clear soz. 

 Sometimes the choice is clear what you have to do but humans are very good at coming up with reasons not to do it. 

 Ideology, blind optimism, faint hope, incompetence etc. 

Always got a choice. Don't always have good options.


----------



## Imaculata

This may have been shared before, but it is still interesting to check out to have an idea how easily germs can spread. This is why you need to be extra careful around others. Social distancing and not touching surfaces with your bare hands, and of course washing your hands thoroughly, all help a lot.

My country has not decided to have everyone wear masks, and I wonder what a difference that would make...


----------



## ad_hoc

Zardnaar said:


> Yes. Wasn't very clear soz.
> 
> Sometimes the choice is clear what you have to do but humans are very good at coming up with reasons not to do it.
> 
> Ideology, blind optimism, faint hope, incompetence etc.
> 
> Always got a choice. Don't always have good options.




Someone said 'is a good idea if you don't have any other options'

I made a tongue in cheek remark meant to be humourous that said 'well if you don't have options it's not really an idea, it's just what is happening'

And now you're going on about choices and ideology? and hope? and whatever?

I actually have no idea what you're trying to say or why it's relevant to me.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Herd immunity via inoculation is a good idea.
> 
> Herd immunity via exposure is a good idea if you don’t have other options.



A vaccine is one form of exposure, in tightly controlled conditions that give the person's immune system the best chance to come out on top.*

The earliest smallpox innoculations involved bringing over somebody who had it, popping a poc, and rubbing the crud that oozed out on somebody else's skin.  Icky and less controlled but it worked.

As a temporary stopgap, we may have to expose otherwise-healthy persons to small quantities of the virus (via a pin-scratch?) and send them home with two weeks' worth of general immuno-boosting stuff (vitamin & mineral pills, instructions to get exercise and eat lots of fresh fruit / veggies, the things that make infecting you a tough proposition for every other virus).  It's scary barely-controlled but it is what we can do while we work on much better.

I'd be really happy if authorities could keep an updated list: these conditions make Coronavirus weak and you strong against it.  Right now the list would almost all have to be marked 'hypothesis' and 'studies under way' but eventually we can mark items 'Proven Effective' ... if such work IS indeed underway.

* I used to work in a hospital.  I had to get a bunch of booster shots for my childhood vaccinations.  After two bad experiences, I scheduled the other shots on Fridays before my weekends off.  So I could be sick and achy at home, not at work.  I always did get on top of it after a day or two.  Campbell's Soups probably loved me, too.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The problems we’re facing, of course are:

1) Coronaviruses are notoriously resistant to the efforts of virologists.  So far, no vaccine has made it through clinical trials for approval for ANY of them.

2) post-exposure immunity/resistance to coronaviruses in general can be limited in strength and duration, and there’s already preliminary indications people might not gain long lasting or strong post-exposure immunity/resistance to Covid-19 in particular.

That all leads to discussions like this:








						Scientists fear the hunt for a coronavirus vaccine will fail and we will all have to live with the 'constant threat' of COVID-19
					

No vaccine for any other form of coronavirus has ever been approved for use, leading some scientists to fear none will be found for COVID-19 either.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The problems we’re facing, of course are:
> 
> 1) Coronaviruses are notor resistant to the efforts of virologists.  So far, no vaccine has made it through clinical trials for approval for ANY of them.
> 
> 2) post-exposure immunity/resistance to coronaviruses in general can be limited in strength and duration, and there’s already preliminary indications people might not gain long lasting or strong post-exposure immunity/resistance to Covid-19 in particular.
> 
> That all leads to discussions like this:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Scientists fear the hunt for a coronavirus vaccine will fail and we will all have to live with the 'constant threat' of COVID-19
> 
> 
> No vaccine for any other form of coronavirus has ever been approved for use, leading some scientists to fear none will be found for COVID-19 either.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com




 If true back to the 1930s. No mass travel, and survival of the fittest if you have preexisting conditions. 

 Or you hope like hell this works.









						Vanquish the Virus? Australia and New Zealand Aim to Show the Way (Published 2020)
					

The two countries, led by ideological opposites, are converging on an extraordinary goal: eliminating the virus. Their nonpolitical approach is restoring trust in democracy.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> 1) Coronaviruses are notoriously resistant to the efforts of virologists.  So far, no vaccine has made it through clinical trials for approval for ANY of them.




... _for humans_.

But, there's coronaviruses that infect canines, felines, and bovines, and there are working vaccines for some of them, for use in animals.  These vaccines are not useful for humans for covid-19, but it isn't like the entire class of coronaviruses have been impervious to the technique.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> ... _for humans_.
> 
> But, there's coronaviruses that infect canines, felines, and bovines, and there are working vaccines for some of them, for use in animals.  These vaccines are not useful for humans for covid-19, but it isn't like the entire class of coronaviruses have been impervious to the technique.



Right, exactly.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Anyone remember this from Season 3 of _The Last Man on Earth _in 2017?


----------



## Azzy

Well, that aged better than expected.


----------



## Imaculata

Southern California beaches right now. They should be posting someone dressed as the grim reaper near the entrances of these beaches. Are people this disconnected from reality?


----------



## ad_hoc

Imaculata said:


> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Southern California beaches right now. They should be posting someone dressed as the grim reaper near the entrances of these beaches. Are people this disconnected from reality?




Here you go



Spoiler


----------



## Imaculata

Haha, I was almost temped to Photoshop that myself, but there you go.


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> Are people this disconnected from reality?




The picture kind of answers that question itself.

One thing humans are really bad at doing is assessing risk from things that are not seen.  They cannot see covid-19.  Recognizing the risk of covid-19 takes a trust and understanding of the statistics.  Changing behavior for the disease requires a certain amount of care of what happens to people you don't know.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> Are people this disconnected from reality?



Millennium hand and shrimp.


----------



## ad_hoc

The USA just hit 1 million confirmed cases and 56 000 deaths.

It looks like their death rate is finally starting to slow, but just as that has started happening a lot of places are re-opening. 

It's going to be catastrophic if things get worse than they were.

I'm thankful the premier of Ontario just announced today that they have a plan for reopening but aren't close to a date yet to start implementing it. I saw the announcement and was afraid that he was going to announce a date.


----------



## Umbran

It looks like the governors of New England and New York are coordinating and planning together in some semblance of recognition that they all impact each other - which may mean we don't start opening until all of us are ready, so we don't start making each other worse.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> The picture kind of answers that question itself.
> 
> One thing humans are really bad at doing is assessing risk from things that are not seen.  They cannot see covid-19.  Recognizing the risk of covid-19 takes a trust and understanding of the statistics.  Changing behavior for the disease requires a certain amount of care of what happens to people you don't know.




I don't think it's that but maybe part psychological.

There's cases from WW2 with people doing really crazy things in places like Berlin in the final days.

Pretend things are normal or to insane.

Here mist people aren't wearing masks. Probably more you can buy them, mist people can't make them and with everything shut you can't but the needed stuff anyway.

You're not getting scenes like ke that at the beach though. The boys in blue will break that up.

Day one of lockdown restrictions relaxing. McDonalds is open first time in almost 5 weeks. Only for drive through though ones still shut.

After the third week if lock down we started getting more complacent as well. The fear/anxiety goes away and you're not as strict when it comes to cleaning.

We were isolating the groceries for three days. Cupboards were full anyway.

Grocery isolation room. Also quarantine room if we got sick.





Probably a failure in planning there somewhere but there's also piles of supplies in the hallway as well.

 More food disruptions. Gonna be people starving but lockdown. Lockdowns good but people somewhere else are gonna starve. 










						Coronavirus: Belgians urged to eat more chips by lockdown-hit potato growers
					

The chips are truly down for Belgium's potato growers, now lacking customers.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> I don't think it's that but maybe part psychological.
> 
> There's cases from WW2 with people doing really crazy things in places like Berlin in the final days.
> 
> Pretend things are normal or to insane.
> 
> Here mist people aren't wearing masks. Probably more you can buy them, mist people can't make them and with everything shut you can't but the needed stuff anyway.
> 
> You're not getting scenes like ke that at the beach though. The boys in blue will break that up.
> 
> Day one of lockdown restrictions relaxing. McDonalds is open first time in almost 5 weeks. Only for drive through though ones still shut.
> 
> After the third week if lock down we started getting more complacent as well. The fear/anxiety goes away and you're not as strict when it comes to cleaning.
> 
> We were isolating the groceries for three days. Cupboards were full anyway.
> 
> Grocery isolation room. Also quarantine room if we got sick.
> 
> View attachment 121453
> 
> Probably a failure in planning there somewhere but there's also piles of supplies in the hallway as well.
> 
> More food disruptions. Gonna be people starving but lockdown. Lockdowns good but people somewhere else are gonna starve.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: Belgians urged to eat more chips by lockdown-hit potato growers
> 
> 
> The chips are truly down for Belgium's potato growers, now lacking customers.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com




Do you have a lot of trouble with mist people down there? Sounds from your post like they are being difficult.


----------



## Zardnaar

Istbor said:


> Do you have a lot of trouble with mist people down there? Sounds from your post like they are being difficult.
> 
> View attachment 121455




No most people are pretty good but the media likes reporting on the idiots.

The figures they used assumed a % of failure to comply.  Late March our curve was doubling every two days, flattened then declined.

There's been a bit of bending of the rules. People stop and chat in the streets but two metres is observed. I can talk to the neighbors from my balcony for example.

 Some people still go for walks in the beach but a lot of people live near them.

Early on the tourists were the big problem. Voluntary isolation failed so they removed to voluntary part and the tourist part.


----------



## MarkB

Zardnaar said:


> We were isolating the groceries for three days. Cupboards were full anyway.



So I've read that coronavirus can persist anywhere from hours to days on different surfaces, but one thing I haven't seen is how refrigeration or freezing affects that. If I buy, say, a packet of frozen chicken that's been surface contaminated and put it in the freezer, would it still be contaminated when I take it out a week later?


----------



## Zardnaar

MarkB said:


> So I've read that coronavirus can persist anywhere from hours to days on different surfaces, but one thing I haven't seen is how refrigeration or freezing affects that. If I buy, say, a packet of frozen chicken that's been surface contaminated and put it in the freezer, would it still be contaminated when I take it out a week later?




No idea that's the flaw we discovered with perishables. We did the best we could then mostly gave up.

Ideally you would grab 60000 calories and head for the hills for a month. Not really feasible for most people/society. I did look into granddad's spot in case the Japanese invaded in WW2. 

They shut down most places anyway so no Amazon packages etc.  They tweaked it later but first week or so couldn't buy bupkids including take aways and delivery.

Even with some restrictions lifted it's roughly the same as say California. Schools are going to partially reopen.


----------



## MarkB

Zardnaar said:


> No idea that's the flaw we discovered with perishables. We did the best we could then mostly gave up.
> 
> Ideally you would grab 60000 calories and head for the hills for a month. Not really feasible for most people/society. I did look into granddad's spot in case the Japanese invaded in WW2.
> 
> They shut down most places anyway so no Amazon packages etc.  They tweaked it later but first week or so couldn't buy bupkids including take aways and delivery.
> 
> Even with some restrictions lifted it's roughly the same as say California. Schools are going to partially reopen.



Yeah, I've got weekly supermarket deliveries booked for the next couple of weeks, and I know the workers wear PPE when selecting items for delivery, but they're selecting from the same shelves that customers are shopping from, so there's always a possibility of contamination. Not an easy risk to manage.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

For the most part, there probably isn’t much risk from your groceries.





__





						Do You Really Have to Disinfect All Groceries Now? An Expert Explains
					

There is no evidence currently that COVID-19 is transmitted by food.




					www.sciencealert.com


----------



## Zardnaar

MarkB said:


> Yeah, I've got weekly supermarket deliveries booked for the next couple of weeks, and I know the workers wear PPE when selecting items for delivery, but they're selecting from the same shelves that customers are shopping from, so there's always a possibility of contamination. Not an easy risk to manage.




They overwhelmed the deliveries here and prioritized old people.

I think that the human brain over rides stuff to enable you to function. At least to done extent. I had a sleepless weekend mid March, everyone else a week or so after that.

I never worried about getting sick from Covid, my wife and her family did. I was cautious but the odds were excellent.

We've had no new cases locally for a week, they can't find any cases of community transmission, and it appears contained.

Some people still don't want to open things up, realistically we have to. Our lockdown level 3 is comparable everyone else's.

If we're lucky we can pretend things are somewhat normal for a month before the wheels fall off the economy in June.

 We gave up on groceries isolation.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Umbran said:


> It looks like the governors of New England and New York are coordinating and planning together in some semblance of recognition that they all impact each other - which may mean we don't start opening until all of us are ready, so we don't start making each other worse.



Meanwhile here in TX...  As of Friday, many businesses can open at 25% capacity. Counties with <=5 cases can open at 50% capacity. Excepted are high-contact businesses like salons, gyms, etc. Any penalties levied by local authorities for not wearing masks are also explicitly forbidden. And other details.








						Gov. Greg Abbott to let restaurants, movie theaters and malls open with limited capacity Friday
					

The businesses must limit occupancy to no more than 25%. Abbott said the state's stay-at-home order "has done its job to slow the growth of COVID-19."




					www.texastribune.org
				



Overall, it's looks like a somewhat more (little-c) conservative plan than, say, Georgia's or Florida's.
Also of note: TX has one of the lowest testing rates in the US. According to IHME projections, we're 3 days past peak deaths per day.

So the next few weeks will be interesting.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Meanwhile here in TX...  As of Friday, many businesses can open at 25% capacity. Counties with <=5 cases can open at 50% capacity. Excepted are high-contact businesses like salons, gyms, etc. Any penalties levied by local authorities for not wearing masks are also explicitly forbidden. And other details.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gov. Greg Abbott to let restaurants, movie theaters and malls open with limited capacity Friday
> 
> 
> The businesses must limit occupancy to no more than 25%. Abbott said the state's stay-at-home order "has done its job to slow the growth of COVID-19."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.texastribune.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Overall, it's looks like a somewhat more (little-c) conservative plan than, say, Georgia's or Florida's.
> Also of note: TX has one of the lowest testing rates in the US. According to IHME projections, we're 3 days past peak deaths per day.
> 
> So the next few weeks will be interesting.



I’m in D/FW, and nobody in THIS house is scampering out the door.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m in D/FW, and nobody in THIS house is scampering out the door.



Yeah, I won't be, either... but I can't say the same for others in this house.
Like I said: it'll be _interesting_.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Yeah, I won't be, either... but I can't say the same for others in this house.
> Like I said: it'll be _interesting_.



Part of it is that, at 52, I’m the YOUNG’N in the house.  Everyone else is over 70.


----------



## Zardnaar

Oops nowheres perfect.









						Coronavirus: Hospitals write off 100,000 incorrectly stored masks during Covid-19 emergency
					

The Capital & Coast and Hutt Valley DHBs have written-off 100,000 face masks from emergency stocks after they fell into disrepair.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




Stock rotation something you learn at McDonalds but bureaucracy. Count boxes and tick checklist. 

Second time this week, 3 new cases. Someone is gonna screw up though.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Part of it is that, at 52, I’m the YOUNG’N in the house.  Everyone else is over 70.



Hehe, I share your relative whippersnappery! I'm 46, and my parents are both 70ish-- adults with their own lives & ideas. And it's their home, whereas I'm the accidental guest who kinda got stuck here by the pandemic. So until I can leave, I suppose the best I can do personally is promise that, if anyone in this house _does_ get it, it's not going to be because of me.


----------



## Zardnaar

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Hehe, I share your relative whippersnappery! I'm 46, and my parents are both 70ish-- adults with their own lives & ideas. And it's their home, whereas I'm the accidental guest who kinda got stuck here by the pandemic. So until I can leave, I suppose the best I can do personally is promise that, if anyone in this house _does_ get it, it's not going to be because of me.




The fear goes away eventually. Wife's patting a driver's dog at work, technically probably shouldn't do that but 0 cases locally now. Wasn't doing that a few weeks ago. 

Still don't pat random animals on the street even if the cat/dog is being obvious about wanting pats.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m in D/FW, and nobody in THIS house is scampering out the door.



Understandably so, you have good reasons.

Other folks, without those particular good reasons but different good reasons of their own, will reach different conclusions of what is best for them to do.


----------



## Zardnaar

Grand reopening.









						Coronavirus: Queues, long waits and traffic management as Kiwis race for fastfood
					

A takeaway fix was the must-have post luxury lockdown, and we were prepared to wait for it.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Hussar

Still waiting for the shoe to drop in Japan.  We've been, more or less, stable for new cases and whatnot for a while now.  I'm going to be teaching my Uni classes remotely, but, we'll see about my other stuff.  Next week is Golden Week here in Japan, more or less a full week of national holidays, and they're pretty firm about everyone staying at home.  

But, again, Japan isn't breaking out the police state at all.  It's all 100% voluntary.  Sigh.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Still waiting for the shoe to drop in Japan.  We've been, more or less, stable for new cases and whatnot for a while now.  I'm going to be teaching my Uni classes remotely, but, we'll see about my other stuff.  Next week is Golden Week here in Japan, more or less a full week of national holidays, and they're pretty firm about everyone staying at home.
> 
> But, again, Japan isn't breaking out the police state at all.  It's all 100% voluntary.  Sigh.



Japan might luck out. Australia didn't do much either early on but has excellent stats.

Air travel hasn't been much if a factor last month.

Some nation's just had more time.

I guess subways and airports in NYC and London were major transmission vectors.

 Virus was probably spreading in January first deaths early February before testing revealed first official numbers.


----------



## Zardnaar

Some light entertainment.

Our director general of health and PM. Context injecting bleech.


His face and her "is it" comment.


----------



## ad_hoc

Quebec is Canada's hardest hit province (twice as bad as Ontario with half the population) and they have announced schools to be reopened on May 11 in rural areas and the 19th in the capital (thankfully not secondary schools though).

So, so much for Canada being on the right track.

At least Ontario (the 2nd hardest hit province) announced today that they do not currently have a date on when to enact their re-opening plan. School closures in Ontario have been extended to at least May 31st.


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Some light entertainment.
> 
> Our director general of health and PM. Context injecting bleech.
> 
> 
> His face and her "is it" comment.




You should post that to the (very stable!) geniuses twitter feed.


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> You should post that to the (very stable!) geniuses twitter feed.




I don't use twitter but falling in love with these two.

His face literally speechless.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Japan might luck out. Australia didn't do much either early on but has excellent stats.
> 
> Air travel hasn't been much if a factor last month.
> 
> Some nation's just had more time.
> 
> I guess subways and airports in NYC and London were major transmission vectors.
> 
> Virus was probably spreading in January first deaths early February before testing revealed first official numbers.




Frankly, it's baffling to me.  I honestly don't understand why we're not hip deep in sick people.  Record (year on year record numbers for the past decade) numbers of Chinese tourists which weren't stopped until well after Wuhan was quarantined.  People packed into public transpo in the cities on a daily basis.  On and on.  But, we're not only not seeing the numbers, but, it looks like we're seeing the beginings of the dawn as well.  Cases have been slowing all over the country.  

No massive testing (Japan is WAYYYY  behind on testing), no lockdown, virtually no actions taken, other than some business closing and the schools closing.  It's baffling.

To be fair, here in the schools, if you test positive for flu, you must stay home for two weeks. We've had classes closed because of flu numbers routinely. So, people are kinda sorta used to reacting to viral infections, but, this is just mind blowing. A bajillion Chinese tourists and nothing. Nobody gets that lucky.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Frankly, it's baffling to me.  I honestly don't understand why we're not hip deep in sick people.  Record (year on year record numbers for the past decade) numbers of Chinese tourists which weren't stopped until well after Wuhan was quarantined.  People packed into public transpo in the cities on a daily basis.  On and on.  But, we're not only not seeing the numbers, but, it looks like we're seeing the beginings of the dawn as well.  Cases have been slowing all over the country.
> 
> No massive testing (Japan is WAYYYY  behind on testing), no lockdown, virtually no actions taken, other than some business closing and the schools closing.  It's baffling.
> 
> To be fair, here in the schools, if you test positive for flu, you must stay home for two weeks. We've had classes closed because of flu numbers routinely. So, people are kinda sorta used to reacting to viral infections, but, this is just mind blowing. A bajillion Chinese tourists and nothing. Nobody gets that lucky.




We discussed it on other forums and the key thing seemed to be transmission to the US via Europe.

It probably hit UK/Europe earlier then across the Atlantic to NYC.

Seattle/California a lot better off.

Same thing happened in Spanish flu some areas lucked out. China maybe contained it well except perhaps a few people who didn't go to Japan.

One would think if it was going to take off in Japan you would be seeing bodies by now regardless of how bad government action is.

Eastern Europe also seems lightly hit. Pacific area also lucked out even with tourism to the islands. Some had 0 Covid like Rarotonga.

Consider. NZ/Ireland.

Population 4.8/4.9 million

Cases 1470/19276
Deaths 18/1087

There's a discussion in Reddit r) NewZealand.

Dublin and Auckland are also similar sizes, population density is 3 times greater in Dublin though.

NZ numbers also look good vs smaller Scandinavian nation's.

We locked down early in numbers here but I think we just had less exposure.

By the time Europe locked down it was to late, they needed to lock down early February mid February at the latest.

Quality of healthcare doesn't seem to be making a massive difference.

It was mist likely spreading in January/February, western type nation's have a larger % of old people and more accurate data collection for deaths. Testing methods and reporting methods are all over the place. Our numbers included probables that later got turned into negatives.

Efficient public transportation is also a factor. It's crap in NZ and USA.

In the Black Plague Poland lucked out.  It happens.

If you have another NZer within 30 metres they're to close.






Next door neighbor is English.






They kept it out if the old folks homes here, half our cases are one location no one died under the age of 62, most were 70+.

Transport hubs, tourist traps, efficient public transport, high population density and older population. Perfect storm.


----------



## briggart

Zardnaar said:


> We discussed it on other forums and the key thing seemed to be transmission to the US via Europe.
> 
> It probably hit UK/Europe earlier then across the Atlantic to NYC.
> 
> Seattle/California a lot better off.
> 
> Same thing happened in Spanish flu some areas lucked out. China maybe contained it well except perhaps a few people who didn't go to Japan.
> 
> One would think if it was going to take off in Japan you would be seeing bodies by now regardless of how bad government action is.
> 
> Eastern Europe also seems lightly hit. Pacific area also lucked out even with tourism to the islands. Some had 0 Covid like Rarotonga.
> 
> Consider. NZ/Ireland.
> 
> Population 4.8/4.9 million
> 
> Cases 1470/19276
> Deaths 18/1087
> 
> There's a discussion in Reddit r) NewZealand.
> 
> Dublin and Auckland are also similar sizes, population density is 3 times greater in Dublin though.
> 
> NZ numbers also look good vs smaller Scandinavian nation's.
> 
> We locked down early in numbers here but I think we just had less exposure.
> 
> By the time Europe locked down it was to late, they needed to lock down early February mid February at the latest.




I don't think that would have been reasonable. At that time Germany had the most detected cases at 16. It's clear now that the virus had been circulating locally for a while before it was detected, but given the info available at that time lockdown was not a sensible option.


----------



## Deset Gled

Hussar said:


> Frankly, it's baffling to me.  I honestly don't understand why we're not hip deep in sick people.  Record (year on year record numbers for the past decade) numbers of Chinese tourists which weren't stopped until well after Wuhan was quarantined.
> ...
> Nobody gets that lucky.




One theory/model is that contagion for things like COVID19 is largely kickstarted by "superspreading events".  That is, things like Biogen's mass infection play a larger role than a steady but smaller trickle of tourists.









						How a Premier U.S. Drug Company Became a Virus ‘Super Spreader’ (Published 2020)
					

Biogen employees unwittingly spread the coronavirus from Massachusetts to Indiana, Tennessee and North Carolina.




					www.nytimes.com
				




If Japan was able to avoid events like this (whether by luck or just generally good, small scale preventative practices), it may have been enough.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

There’s always going to be a random factor in this.  

Viral load- the amount of virus you personally get exposed to- plays a role in if you get sick, and if you do, how sick you get.  Someone getting a few hundred thousand Covid-19 viruses because someone coughed 11 feet from them will likely fare better than the same person walking unprotected into a closed room full of as-yet undiagnosed Covid-19 patients and inhaling billions with each breath.

Similarly, if Japan simply didn’t have many people entering the country from infected areas in the early stages, their efforts would have had better results than a similar country welcoming a big tour group fresh from Wuhan.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Aaaaand clotting:








						Mysterious blood clots are COVID-19's latest lethal surprise
					

After he had spent nearly three weeks in an intensive care unit being treated for COVID-19, Broadway and TV actor Nick Cordero's doctors were forced to amputate his right leg. The 41-year-old's blood flow had been impeded by a clot: yet another dangerous complication of the disease that has been...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Istbor

Maybe the scariest potential complication from this whole mess.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

But, as the article notes- and I’ve actually been wondering for about a week since this first popped up- this could be the underlying cause for a lot of the other problems, like organ failure or the loss of senses.  It might even be the reason why patients on respirators aren’t doing well.

And if there’s one common _cause_, there might be one solution that wipes out or minimizes a bunch of symptoms.


----------



## Istbor

Dannyalcatraz said:


> But, as the article notes- and I’ve actually been wondering for about a week since this first popped up- this could be the underlying cause for a lot of the other problems, like organ failure or the loss of senses.  It might even be the reason why patients on respirators aren’t doing well.
> 
> And if there’s one common _cause_, there might be one solution that wipes out or minimizes a bunch of symptoms.




True I did understand that last bit, that if there is a common thread, that might be a linchpin to making this far less deadly, and also less damaging in general for more severe cases. 

More the thought of getting something like this, and having to have a foot or some fingers removed. Not to mention death, but I mean... if I die I probably won't be as bothered by it as others still alive. Missing parts though, you would have to live with.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Gotcha!

Yeah, that wouldn’t be good at all...but better than the alternative, still.


----------



## Eltab

Hussar said:


> Frankly, it's baffling to me.  I honestly don't understand why we're not hip deep in sick people.
> 
> - snip -
> 
> To be fair, here in the schools, if you test positive for flu, you must stay home for two weeks. We've had classes closed because of flu numbers routinely. So, people are kinda sorta used to reacting to viral infections, but, this is just mind blowing. A bajillion Chinese tourists and nothing. Nobody gets that lucky.



I wonder if the key was in your last paragraph: child gets a flu, is sent home.  That shuts off transmission to the other children.  How many cold/flu cases this winter were really Corona?  If sick adults at work also are sent home (or get a mask, stay by themselves, and such) then again the virus doesn't get a crack at other people.  Or barely gets a fingertip-hold that the immune system can fight off.

As a first impression: you were quarantining the sick and the contagious carriers but did not know it.  Be thankful !


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Whoda thunkit?


> At least 52 people in Wisconsin who said they voted in-person or worked the polls for the US state's April 7 primary election have tested positive for coronavirus, according to the Wisconsin Department of Health Services.
> 
> Several of those people reported other possible exposures as well, Jennifer Miller, a department spokeswoman said.
> 
> The state's decision to hold in-person elections in the middle of a pandemic was roundly criticized by candidates and health experts, and turned into a bitter partisan battle.




Source:  CNN

In other news, Texas’ lockdown orders expire on Friday.  Our numbers are still going up.


----------



## Hussar

Eltab said:


> I wonder if the key was in your last paragraph: child gets a flu, is sent home.  That shuts off transmission to the other children.  How many cold/flu cases this winter were really Corona?  If sick adults at work also are sent home (or get a mask, stay by themselves, and such) then again the virus doesn't get a crack at other people.  Or barely gets a fingertip-hold that the immune system can fight off.
> 
> As a first impression: you were quarantining the sick and the contagious carriers but did not know it.  Be thankful !




Could be I suppose.  Like I said, the scary thing is, no one has any answers.  Are our numbers low because we're not testing?  But, then, we're also not seeing bodies piling up either, so, apparently we haven't had huge outbreaks.  We're probably going to start opening things up next week here as well, but, as I said, the scary thing is there doesn't seem to be any actual explanations forthcoming.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Could be I suppose.  Like I said, the scary thing is, no one has any answers.  Are our numbers low because we're not testing?  But, then, we're also not seeing bodies piling up either, so, apparently we haven't had huge outbreaks.  We're probably going to start opening things up next week here as well, but, as I said, the scary thing is there doesn't seem to be any actual explanations forthcoming.




On another forum a poster in Japan is wondering the same thing. He posts Japanese reports and translates.

Japan has an older population.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> On another forum a poster in Japan is wondering the same thing. He posts Japanese reports and translates.
> 
> Japan has an older population.




Oh, very much.  I think Japan is either equal to or older than Italy on average.  It's a huge problem that's already affecting the country.  To put it in perspective, a Japanese friend of mine happened to go to the same middle school that my daughters go to now.  When he was there, the school was about two times larger.  So, basically, in one generation, the population of children has halved.  Schools are closing all over the place.  And, since Japan refuses to bus students, we've got all sorts of schools with like 6-10 students total.  A full building, full faculty, principal and whatnot, for 10 students.    It's insane and it's only going to get a lot worse.

I've seen predictions of Japan's population dropping to something like half it's current size within the next 30-50 years.  We're talking massive economic collapse if that happens.  Japan's just starting to allow more foreign workers into the country and whatnot, but, it still has pretty much zero immigration.  This is a country that's going to have a serious, serious problem very, very soon.

But, as far as Covid goes, well, you'd think with a geriatric population, the virus would be having a field day.  It's not like Korea managed to escape and, as I said, we had tens of thousands of Chinese tourists hitting the country on a daily basis.  Why we haven't had it worse, no one can say.  

Maybe it is just blind luck.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Oh, very much.  I think Japan is either equal to or older than Italy on average.  It's a huge problem that's already affecting the country.  To put it in perspective, a Japanese friend of mine happened to go to the same middle school that my daughters go to now.  When he was there, the school was about two times larger.  So, basically, in one generation, the population of children has halved.  Schools are closing all over the place.  And, since Japan refuses to bus students, we've got all sorts of schools with like 6-10 students total.  A full building, full faculty, principal and whatnot, for 10 students.    It's insane and it's only going to get a lot worse.
> 
> I've seen predictions of Japan's population dropping to something like half it's current size within the next 30-50 years.  We're talking massive economic collapse if that happens.  Japan's just starting to allow more foreign workers into the country and whatnot, but, it still has pretty much zero immigration.  This is a country that's going to have a serious, serious problem very, very soon.
> 
> But, as far as Covid goes, well, you'd think with a geriatric population, the virus would be having a field day.  It's not like Korea managed to escape and, as I said, we had tens of thousands of Chinese tourists hitting the country on a daily basis.  Why we haven't had it worse, no one can say.
> 
> Maybe it is just blind luck.




Australia leaders did the hey no problem thing for a while. They left things a bit late but the dumb luck thing seems to be helping them as their lockdown us very lax compared to ours and per capita our death toll just passed theirs.

China's a big country as well. If I had to guess a few from Wuhan went to Europe in January or so and it went from there to USA. By the time anyone noticed to late.

Japan has tourists, I'm guessing it's not a lot compared to say Italy and NYC. Not a single government locked down in early February outside of Asia.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

We’re learning more:








						Less-invasive breathing therapies could keep 'significant number' of patients off ventilators
					

A potential ventilator shortage has made building and buying them a national priority to fight COVID-19. But doctors are becoming less concerned.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Istbor

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Whoda thunkit?
> 
> 
> Source:  CNN
> 
> In other news, Texas’ lockdown orders expire on Friday.  Our numbers are still going up.



Yeah. As a resident of Wisconsin, I was pretty disappointed that we had to vote in person, and on that particular day, instead of by mail, or just moving the day further along. I am already working overtime during this which has me stressed(apologies to those currently unemployed), now I have to take even more time off to try and vote, plus be extra careful around everyone? AND they reduced the number of voting locations than would normally be available? 

It was kind of like a slap in the face. 


To your other point, at least New York is starting to come down from the depressing amount of deaths per day. I am really, really hoping other states that this may have hit later don't start picking up the slack.


----------



## MoonSong

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Whoda thunkit?
> 
> 
> Source:  CNN
> 
> In other news, Texas’ lockdown orders expire on Friday.  Our numbers are still going up.



There's still hope. In Argentina they declared expansion of the quarantine some hours before it was bound to expire. People were getting ready to go to work and they suddenly had to return to lock out mode.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

MoonSong said:


> There's still hope. In Argentina they declared expansion of the quarantine some hours before it was bound to expire. People were getting ready to go to work and they suddenly had to return to lock out mode.



Not too likely here.

We had one salon open DAYS earlier than the government said was OK, and so far, the only thing that’s happened was a few warnin and eventually, a TRO.

...which the owner ignored.

We’ve also had several incidents of people simply not wearing their mask- or wearing them improperly- ignoring the orders on THAT.

My great uncle used to say, “A hard head makes for a soft behind.”  I have a feeling that Texas will charge ahead with its plan unless & until it’s clear that the plan isn’t working- IOW, the cases & deaths continue to rise or spike.

I sincerely HOPE I’m wrong, but I‘m not optimistic.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In other news, Texas’ lockdown orders expire on Friday.  Our numbers are still going up.



I just checked the IHME site. They've adjust the peak deaths day for TX from several days ago, to a few days from now. <i>And</i> they haven't yet accounted for the re-opening, afaict.
Interesting times ahead.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’m a practicing Catholic, a food fiend, and a bit of a fop.

I‘ve had to go to Mass on YouTube, haven’t had asian cuisine since February, and frankly, my thinning hair shaggy Afro does NOT fit my image...or my hats.

Ain’t none of that (or other issues) going to convince me to “get back to normal” until Texas’ numbers show signs of the pandemic’s receding.


----------



## ad_hoc

Theo R Cwithin said:


> I just checked the IHME site. They've adjust the peak deaths day for TX from several days ago, to a few days from now. <i>And</i> they haven't yet accounted for the re-opening, afaict.
> Interesting times ahead.




A week ago that site predicted 60 000 deaths in the USA through to August. We're at 60 000 now and they have updated to 72 000.

They're also predicting 5000 in Canada but the Canadian government has predicted 11 000 to 22 000 (though that may be by the end of the pandemic not just the first wave, I'm not sure).

I don't trust it either way. 

They've been wrong on their daily death counts too, even going outside of their quite large ranges.


----------



## Deset Gled

ad_hoc said:


> They've been wrong on their daily death counts too, even going outside of their quite large ranges.




The latest CDC data suggest that everyone is behind with the death counts due to COVID19.









						U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)
					

In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.



					www.nytimes.com
				




Basically, there's a very large gap between the rise of death compared to the average rate, and number of COVID19 deaths reported.  In NYC the difference is only about 15%, which is kind of understandable if you assume they couldn't test everyone and that there are a few non-COVID deaths that are caused by the pandemic.  But in places like Illinois the gap is larger than the number of COVID deaths reported, which is a lot harder to swallow.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

ad_hoc said:


> A week ago that site predicted 60 000 deaths in the USA through to August. We're at 60 000 now and they have updated to 72 000.
> 
> They're also predicting 5000 in Canada but the Canadian government has predicted 11 000 to 22 000 (though that may be by the end of the pandemic not just the first wave, I'm not sure).
> 
> I don't trust it either way.
> 
> They've been wrong on their daily death counts too, even going outside of their quite large ranges.



I've never seen their estimates go outside their (enormous!) error bars. But you and I may well be referring to different countries/districts.

IHME update their model every few days, so all those final counts and peak days change regularly.
I don't _dis_trust the site, because they are pretty up front about methodology and limitations-- the big one being that it seems they assume more compliance with control measures than may be "real". I've also noticed their day-to-day data doesn't line up exactly with worldometer's or JHU's. That said, their overall US numbers have remained fairly close to what has actually happened.

I just try to remember that all these sites have different purposes, and use different sources-- which themselves are only as good as the public health offices' reporting. Given recent allegations that some countries and US states are suppressing covid-19 statistics, I think the bulk of the suspicion should be laid on those reports, not the academic institutions doing the models or visualizations.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Deset Gled said:


> The latest CDC data suggest that everyone is behind with the death counts due to COVID19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com



Finally! I've been waiting for exactly this sort of analysis for the US. Thanks for posting.


----------



## Istbor

I can't read it without signing up for an account. Hurumph.


----------



## Zardnaar

My personal guesstimate was wrong. I fired Vietnam War era casualties around 55k. Wasn't wrong with the 9/11 every 1-3 days estimate. 

 With 320 million people though I guess it's not real on a personal level for most people.


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> My personal guesstimate was wrong. I fired Vietnam War era casualties around 55k. Wasn't wrong with the 9/11 every 1-3 days estimate.
> 
> With 320 million people though I guess it's not real on a personal level for most people.




True, for the most part, something like an attack on us as Americans, or a war we are in, brings more of us together as one.

This however is being seen by many as something happening to New York, as just a natural course of life. No attack, no unifying sentiment. Maybe some bitterness in less affected areas having to sacrifice due some states on the other side of the country suffering.

Kind of like a Tornado or Hurricane. Something that can happen, and while tragic many people have a "you chose to live there so you knew the stakes" kind of mentality. At least speaking for some of the rural areas I grew up in, in my state.

But it isn't that, and shouldn't be that. This is far more wide-spread and REALLY, if it affects one part of the country (let alone the whole world) it does eventually affect your state/county as well.


----------



## Zardnaar

Istbor said:


> True, for the most part, something like an attack on us as Americans, or a war we are in, brings more of us together as one.
> 
> This however is being seen by many as something happening to New York, as just a natural course of life. No attack, no unifying sentiment. Maybe some bitterness in less affected areas having to sacrifice due some states on the other side of the country suffering.
> 
> Kind of like a Tornado or Hurricane. Something that can happen, and while tragic many people have a "you chose to live there so you knew the stakes" kind of mentality. At least speaking for some of the rural areas I grew up in, in my state.
> 
> But it isn't that, and shouldn't be that. This is far more wide-spread and REALLY, if it affects one part of the country (let alone the whole world) it does eventually affect your state/county as well.




The thing I've noticed us "why is the economy falling apart with so few dead".

I know the answer but can't really explain it easily. Bubble go pop.

4 weeks ago it was lock the country down let's do this. Now it's "over it".
Obviously we know it's going in, people are being careful but the panics gone. For most people it's something you read about or see on TV.

Know anyone with Covid. No. Know anyone who's died. No.

It's not stupidly as such I just think brains are wired in such a way that you can't be scared all of the time. You gave to go get food regardless vs starving to death in your cave that's safe. The lion might eat you but you need the food.

And then you have old fashioned stupidity.

Watching this.


Common sense says don't go there. Humans not the best at danger recognition.


----------



## ad_hoc

Istbor said:


> True, for the most part, something like an attack on us as Americans, or a war we are in, brings more of us together as one.
> 
> This however is being seen by many as something happening to New York, as just a natural course of life. No attack, no unifying sentiment. Maybe some bitterness in less affected areas having to sacrifice due some states on the other side of the country suffering.
> 
> Kind of like a Tornado or Hurricane. Something that can happen, and while tragic many people have a "you chose to live there so you knew the stakes" kind of mentality. At least speaking for some of the rural areas I grew up in, in my state.
> 
> But it isn't that, and shouldn't be that. This is far more wide-spread and REALLY, if it affects one part of the country (let alone the whole world) it does eventually affect your state/county as well.




One thing people in rural states often don't realize is that New York pays for their federal funding.

The same thing happens in Canada. A lot of Canada hates/resents Toronto but Toronto is where the money is.


----------



## ad_hoc

Germany started to reopen and the reproduction rate rose from .7 to 1.0

Big warning to the US States which I doubt they will heed.









						Germany’s COVID-19 infection rate increases after easing lockdowns
					

Coronavirus patients in Germany were infecting an average of 0.7 other people before allowing small businesses to reopen earlier this month.




					nypost.com


----------



## Zardnaar

We're slowly reopening. 3 new cases today.

700+ cases of failure to meet level 3 lockdown requirements.

Theoretically eliminated community thread. Theoretically our lockdowns still going and is supposed to be similar to everyone else's.

People took relaxing of restrictions to mean business as usual. Once again the tourists thought they could go on as usual.

  On the flip side others are enjoying lockdown. Some of the idiots rushing out for KFC and McDonalds will be here in a few months.









						Huge demand for food parcels predicted to grow
					

Auckland mayor Phil Goff is expecting the demand for free food parcels to grow as the wage subsidy finishes and more people lose their jobs.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Azzy

ad_hoc said:


> Big warning to the US States which I doubt they will heed.




Unless it greatly impacts the billionaires, it doesn't matter to our government.


----------



## Zardnaar

Azzy said:


> Unless it greatly impacts the billionaires, it doesn't matter to our government.




 Some here wanted to throw the beneficiary s into Mt Ruapehu (volcano) to see if that would make Covid go away. 

 It's not the 1990's anymore so they would ask for volunteers first. Failing that just throw some Maccas and KFC into the crater.

 Might work right?

 Italy 2.0.








						Dozens of bodies found in truck outside of New York funeral home
					

Police were alerted to a bad smell and discovered dozens of bodies inside trucks outside a New York funeral home.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Zardnaar

Japan question from earlier.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia...world/asia&link_location=live-reporting-story[/URL]

 NZ is doing more testing. Not per capita but full stop.


----------



## Imaculata

Azzy said:


> Unless it greatly impacts the billionaires, it doesn't matter to our government.




Sad but true. We've seen several people on US news outlets say that people should simply 'die for the economy', which is mind blowing. I also suspect a bunch of people are trying to heavily benefit from this crisis. There's probably a good reason hydroxychloroquine was being peddled so heavily lately.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Japan question from earlier.
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia...world/asia&link_location=live-reporting-story[/URL]
> 
> NZ is doing more testing. Not per capita but full stop.




Oh, I know.  It's mind blowing.  And, the deaths are also not being tested as well.  Japan doesn't do autopsies on the overwhelming majority of deaths.  It's one of the reasons that Japan's crime rate is so low.  Poison your wife?  Not a problem, she just died because she got sick.  No worries.  

It's truly, truly frightening.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Oh, I know.  It's mind blowing.  And, the deaths are also not being tested as well.  Japan doesn't do autopsies on the overwhelming majority of deaths.  It's one of the reasons that Japan's crime rate is so low.  Poison your wife?  Not a problem, she just died because she got sick.  No worries.
> 
> It's truly, truly frightening.




 Yeah NZ stats don't look so good in some areas but the stats are reasonably honest. 

 In Covid cases we count probables, Belgium counts probable deaths in home deaths. 

 I like Russia. Criticize Putun you accidentally  fall out your apartment window. Build smaller windows accidental drownings in the dishwasher goes up.

 Turkmenistan just bans all mentions of Covid.

 Stats in western Europe reasonably accurate.


----------



## ad_hoc

Imaculata said:


> Sad but true. We've seen several people on US news outlets say that people should simply 'die for the economy', which is mind blowing. I also suspect a bunch of people are trying to heavily benefit from this crisis. There's probably a good reason hydroxychloroquine was being peddled so heavily lately.




Well as usual money will be going to be corporations to 'bail them out'. There could be a conspiracy around hydroxycholorquine but it's more likely that it's just reaching at straws to say something positive.

On the topic of sacrificing people for the economy Trump has ordered that meat processing facilities that closed due to worker sickness and death due to COVID 19 be reopened. His action is to remove liability from the owners so that they are more freely able to put their workers in harm's way. The focus is not on worker safety but legal safety of the owners. 

The same issue is occurring in Canada with meat processing facilities. It is unclear what the Prime Minister is planning to do about it, but I doubt it is going to be that.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

There’s more to the hydro thing than desperation:








						Fox Hydroxychloro-Queen Laura Ingraham Trashes Promising New Treatment
					

Ingraham, who has long touted the unproven anti-malarial drug as a COVID-19 treatment, pooh-poohed a recent study showing promising results for another drug.



					www.thedailybeast.com
				




IOW:

1) a drug with _known _issues- including blindness and possible death from the very first dose- gets touted as a possible treatment/cure.  It gets pushed hard by certain pepole.  Testing starts, but is stopped when those issues crop up again.

2) A newer drug showing actual promise in clinical trials starts emerging as a potential treatment/cure for Covid-19 starts getting some press, and one of the other drug’s cheerleaders badmouths it.


----------



## Olrox17

A month or so ago, when deaths were at their peak here in Italy, some posters scoffed at the idea that the US could get tens up of thousands of deaths. Now it’s the new standard.

It’s so sad that my country’s plight failed to inspire other countries to take precautions in time, and now they are basically where we were before.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

There’s an old saying in the American South: Showin’s better’n tellin’.

The Doubting Thomases of the world have a strong foothold in the USA.  Unfortunately, there’s a subset of them who, unlike their namesake, seem impervious to changing their position when confronted with new data. 

This isn’t new.  In 1980, Isaac Asimov opined:


----------



## Olrox17

Many also believed that the spreading of covid in Italy was due to our authorities being exceptionally incompetent, laughably so. So much arrogance has now been proven wrong and foolish. Sadly.


----------



## Zardnaar

Olrox17 said:


> Many also believed that the spreading of covid in Italy was due to our authorities being exceptionally incompetent, laughably so. So much arrogance has now been proven wrong and foolish. Sadly.




 They did some silly things. 

 I did estimate tens of thousands in USA but got the numbers wrong. I just took Italys numbers and multiplied by 5. 

 When I messaged my American friends Italy was at 3000 dead week later it was 10k. They didn't know about Italy. 

 USA has actually done better per capita so far than a lot of Europe. USA being kinda useless at things like public transportation seems to be an advantage. They're trying hard to catch up though. 

 On a lighter note. We can now order food but social distancing applies. 

 Coffee train and fish and chips via flying fox. 









						Kiwi ingenuity at its finest: The quirky ways businesses have gone contactless
					

Takeaway food and coffees now come via trains, flying foxes and a cat flap, thanks to our famous No.8 wire thinking.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Morrus

Istbor said:


> True, for the most part, something like an attack on us as Americans, or a war we are in, brings more of us together as one.




You've just described _people_, not Americans.


----------



## Morrus

Olrox17 said:


> Many also believed that the spreading of covid in Italy was due to our authorities being exceptionally incompetent, laughably so.




Pretty much everybody in every country is saying the exact same thing about their leaders, with maybe a couple of exceptions like NZ. The first couple of weeks it was less so, but as the pandemic wears on, people are looking for somebody to blame. In many cases they're right.


----------



## Olrox17

Morrus said:


> Pretty much everybody in every country is saying the exact same thing about their leaders, with maybe a couple of exceptions like NZ. The first couple of weeks it was less so, but as the pandemic wears on, people are looking for somebody to blame. In many cases they're right.



I can't honestly scapegoat our government. As soon as covid erupted in China, they blocked all flights from there. When we were hit, the WHO and China were still downplaying the crisis. It wasn't called a pandemic yet. Then we quarantined the entire country, and have been doing so for more than a month now.

Interestingly enough, the political debate in Italy is if the government is being _too_ _careful _right now. The opposition (which is currently mostly composed of far right parties) is advocating for an end of the quarantine, and a reopening of all economic activities, including restaurants.


----------



## Zardnaar

Morrus said:


> Pretty much everybody in every country is saying the exact same thing about their leaders, with maybe a couple of exceptions like NZ. The first couple of weeks it was less so, but as the pandemic wears on, people are looking for somebody to blame. In many cases they're right.




 This. 

 Unfortunately having better leaders wouldn't make a drastic difference. 5-6 weeks ago the Aussies were raving about Jacinda as they were similar to the UK.

 Aussie lucked out but their leader's approval ratings are hitting 68%. Australia got lucky. 

 Jacindas numbers are hitting 87-93% and there's speculation the opposition will roll their leader but no one wants his job. 

 Both countries looked at Italy and Jacinda had friends in UK tell her to lick down now and she closed the borders. 

 Aussie guy to be fair did a reasonable job all things considered, we weren't prepared either just further behind the curve. 

 With 5 times the population Aussie had 10 times the ICU beds as well. Our reserves of PPE weren't the best either some dating from 2007.

 Some local businesses men had contacts in China and aquired 5 planeloads of supplies hiring armed guards to get it. They knew how things work over there.

 Might have a contract but if someone else turns up with cash at the factory door ...

 Also banned flights from China 1 day after the US.

 Didn't want that tourism industry anyway. Queenstown unemployment rate 30%.


----------



## Istbor

Morrus said:


> You've just described _people_, not Americans.




Fair enough. I can only speak for fellow countrymen, and didn't want to rope everyone in on my opinion.


I have heard similar things about remdesivir. From colleagues at work and through my social network. Here's hoping studying this, may lead to a definitive tool for fighting COVID-19.

It is a worry that we start reopening, and just wind up dooming ourselves, and our Summer. 

Also, I have been pretty good at denying my parent's visitation due to this, but definitely getting harder. Our state hasn't been hit as hard, and they hadn't seen me since before they had left to Winter in Texas (now having been back since early April).


----------



## Janx

Here's the other sneaky trick with the re-openings in the US:

once the gov says you aren't forced to close, you lose your government financial support if you choose to stay closed anyway.

This also cascades to the workers.  if your boss says you have to work, and you say "no, it's not safe."  Then you voluntarily quit.  Changing your status for qualifying for unemployment.

The whole thing a is a screwjob for workers and a trap for employers via who funds the unemployment checks if they decide to remain closed.


----------



## Zardnaar

Janx said:


> Here's the other sneaky trick with the re-openings in the US:
> 
> once the gov says you aren't forced to close, you lose your government financial support if you choose to stay closed anyway.
> 
> This also cascades to the workers.  if your boss says you have to work, and you say "no, it's not safe."  Then you voluntarily quit.  Changing your status for qualifying for unemployment.
> 
> The whole thing a is a screwjob for workers and a trap for employers via who funds the unemployment checks if they decide to remain closed.




Read something similar on another forum. 

 We haven't had the collapse in jobs losses yet. USA 26 million, NZ 30k (900k per capita cf USA).

 Wage subsidy is for 3 months and they paid out ASAP and all at once. Friends small business got 30k. 

 They're basically paying you to stay at home. 

 It's gonna suck but it will suck less. Unemployment expected to hit 9-13% but we probably won't melt down. 

 Idk what I'm gonna do post lockdown. Brother lost his job (pilot)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yep,  I’ve seen a lot of restaurant owners complaining about EXACTLY that.

The lifting of restrictions ALSO drastically affects what kind and amount of state and federal aid _business owners_ qualify for, again, a sore spot for restauranteurs who are caught between the Scylla and Charybdis of losing all kinds of supports while not being able to open at capacity without violating social distancing orders and/or endangering patrons and employees.

As pointed out here, the margins on a lot of restaurants are slim enough that they need to run at 85% capacity to stay afloat, and in a lot of states, the orders are restricting them to 25-50% capacity.  The death of 1000 cuts.








						Award-winning chef Andrew Zimmern says restaurants are facing a near-extinction event and pinpoints the real problems in America's supply chain
					

"If we don't backstop restaurants, I believe we are looking at a near-extinction event for them," the acclaimed chef Andrew Zimmern says.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yep,  I’ve seen a lot of restaurant owners complaining about EXACTLY that.
> 
> The lifting of restrictions ALSO drastically affects what kind and amount of state and federal aid _business owners_ qualify for, again, a sore spot for restauranteurs who are caught between the Scylla and Charybdis of losing all kinds of supports while not being able to open at capacity without violating social distancing orders and/or endangering patrons and employees.




 Restaurants gonna be boned. Even if things are open consumer confidence isn't gonna be there. In some cases the money isn't gonna be there. 

 We had 60-80% of the workforce sitting at home still can't quite wipe it out and things are slowly opening up.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yep.  And nobody’s going to want to pay 2-4x the price of pre-lockdown meals, which is what it may take for them to cover rent and taxes. 

(And if property taxes don’t go down, rents won’t either, which will translate into more landlords fighting to NOT have their property zoned for restaurants.)

Some will do better than others.  One of my favorite local Chinese places has had a dead seating area for a couple years now.  BUT if you dine in, you’d see a constant stream of customers doing takeout and delivery drivers from Über Eats, Grubhub, and the like.  Something like 65%+ of their revenue has become takeout.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yep.  And nobody’s going to want to pay 2-4x the price of pre-lockdown meals, which is what it may take for them to cover rent and taxes.
> 
> (And if property taxes don’t go down, rents won’t either, which will translate into more landlords fighting to NOT have their property zoned for restaurants.)
> 
> Some will do better than others.  One of my favorite local Chinese places has had a dead seating area for a couple years now.  BUT if you dine in, you’d see a constant stream of customers doing takeout and delivery drivers from Über Eats, Grubhub, and the like.  Something like 65%+ of their revenue has become takeout.




 It will be a very simple process. The ones that can do take out and have a loyal customer base will survive. The ones that don't won't but there customers will go somewhere else. 

 Really cheap places will survive. Food trucks look good. Tourist trap cities gonna hurt.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Not quite that simple. Some dishes & cuisines really don’t fare well as takeout.

Think about a nice French restaurant, or a good steakhouse.  Add 15 minutes of travel time and you’ve transmogrified a nice dining experience into solid, 24 karat Meh.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not quite that simple. Some dishes & cuisines really don’t fare well as takeout.
> 
> Think about a nice French restaurant, or a good steakhouse.  Add 15 minutes of travel time and you’ve transmogrified a nice dining experience into solid, 24 karat Meh.




 Yeah those places that can't do it won't do well. 

 Cheap stuff and high end stuff should be reasonably ok the stuff in the middle is in trouble. 

 Here for example you can afford fish and chips on welfare. Rich people also eat it as it's a cultural thing. 

 Hipster burger joints though may be in trouble.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not quite that simple. Some dishes & cuisines really don’t fare well as takeout.
> 
> Think about a nice French restaurant, or a good steakhouse.  Add 15 minutes of travel time and you’ve transmogrified a nice dining experience into solid, 24 karat Meh.



IME, the french fries at most sit-down restaurants (Steak'N'Shake) do not do well when you insert a 15-minute drive time between the fryer and the table.  Fast food fries (McDonalds) however hold up ok - but may get cold if they were packed on top.


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> IME, the french fries at most sit-down restaurants (Steak'N'Shake) do not do well when you insert a 15-minute drive time between the fryer and the table.  Fast food fries (McDonalds) however hold up ok - but may get cold if they were packed on top.




 It's why we almost always dine in.

Pizza holds up alright, Uber eats not so much. Chinese and Indian can also be decent delivered. Even then dine in. 

 Schwarma also not to bad if you're quick but it's tasty cold as well


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

...and our houseguest (Master’s degree & former PhD candidate) is openly musing about how suspicious it is that hydrochloraquine- available as a generic- is failing in clinical trials while Gilead‘s remdesivir- still under a patent- is succeeding.

And that’s not the craziest thing she uttered in the same 30 minute window.

I've known this woman 30+years, but it seems more and more like I didn’t know her at all.  Her son has extended an offer to her to come life with him and his family in Florida after the crisis has abated.  I sincerely hope she accepts.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ...and our houseguest (Master’s degree & former PhD candidate) is openly musing about how suspicious it is that hydrochloraquine- available as a generic- is failing in clinical trials while Gilead‘s remdesivir- still under a patent- is succeeding.
> 
> And that’s not the craziest thing she uttered in the same 30 minute window.
> 
> I've known this woman 30+years, but it seems more and more like I didn’t know her at all.  Her son has extended an offer to her to come life with him and his family in Florida after the crisis has abated.  I sincerely hope she accepts.




 Can't fix stupid waste of time trying. 

 I'm considering early retirement age 41. Sell house, fly back here to do seasonal work and go live somewhere dirt cheap like Rarotonga. Or do the same thing somewhere in eastern Europe where the land is dirt cheap and visas are easy to get.

 Work 6-12 weeks a year, drink booze play D&D. Buy farmlet. See what happens.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Can't fix stupid waste of time trying.



Yeah, pretty much not responding to the wackier stuff.

IDK what- if any- kookiness she’s said to Dad, but she’s spouted a few things to Mom that have _her_ worried.  If our houseguest does anything to endanger the household, I’ll flat out “vote her off the island.”

ASAP, of course.  I doubt my folks would kick her out if things were dangerous for a single violation.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yeah, pretty much not responding to the wackier stuff.
> 
> IDK what- if any- kookiness she’s said to Dad, but she’s spouted a few things to Mom that have _her_ worried.  If our houseguest does anything to endanger the household, I’ll flat out “vote her off the island.”
> 
> ASAP, of course.  I doubt my folks would kick her out if things were dangerous for a single violation.




 Just don't send her to Rarotonga.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Just don't send her to Rarotonga.



I don’t think she could afford to go, and I’M not paying for that ticket. 

My one worry about her is that- even if she does accept her son’s invite, she could still boomerang on us.  She has an almost King Lear-esque relationship with her 3 kids, and NONE of them is as good as Cordelia or as evil as Goneril or Regan.

Each has taken her in at some point, and each has either driven or kicked her out- one on a rainy Mother’s Day.  *Because she brought donuts into the house.*


----------



## Zardnaar

Today's update.

1479 cases
 Over 1250 recovered
19 deaths
6 in hospital

3 new cases 










						Live: Three new coronavirus cases confirmed, as warning issued about parties
					

Waitemata DHB staff have tested postive, the Government is giving loans to businesses, and those planning gatherings have been told to rethink.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Interest free loans for small/medium businesses. Idiots decide to party so the Police are gonna be used to remind them we're still in lockdown.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

That’s a great recovery rate!  GO NZ!


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That’s a great recovery rate!  GO NZ!




 Just can't squeeze out those last few cases. They were medical staff.

 They probably missed a few but the hospitals aren't piling up. We can now go to beach and get KFC.

 No new cases locally for about a week.

 Boss bought KFC for the workers and sister in law had Maccas. Enjoyed my oatmeal today with plastic cow milk.

Popular.








						Leaked poll shows big jump for Labour
					

The National Party is on just 29 percent, while Labour is polling at 55 percent, according to the latest survey by Labour's pollster.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I suspect Covid-19 will be one of those that- even with *successful* research into vaccines and treatments- is going to be responsible for a trickle of cases & deaths everywhere in the world.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

If true, good news!








						South Korea says recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again did not relapse: Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'
					

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was worried the virus was reactivating after people recovered, but scientists dismissed the fear.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> If true, good news!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> South Korea says recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again did not relapse: Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'
> 
> 
> The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was worried the virus was reactivating after people recovered, but scientists dismissed the fear.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




 Saw that

 yesterday. That's a best case scenario and it took them 3 months. 

 Vaccines aren't a magic bullet except vs things like Smallpox.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Meanwhile, in Florida...


			https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242050696.html


----------



## ad_hoc

New York death rate is slowly dropping but other states are rising to level out the overall death rate.

I'm worried with states blindly reopening that Florida and Texas are going to be the new hotspots.

It's possible that what happens by June will be worse than anything they've seen so far.

Per capita Florida has similar numbers to Canada right now. 

Quebec, by far the worst hit area in Canada, is reopening schools May 15th which will probably be a disaster. Their reasoning is that 90% of the deaths there are from long term care homes so it's not affecting the general population as much. I hope that reasoning works out.

Thankfully Ontario is maintaining strict lockdowns with a plan announced but no date set. Toronto just locked up High Park where thousands of people come every year to view the cherry blossoms.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Viruses gonna virus.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Tomorrow is Phase 1 opening day for Texas! 






The Dallas Diocese is doing a slow reopening as well.

What could go wrong?








						'And then, boom': Outbreak shows shaky ground as Texas opens
					

Barely a week ago, rural Lamar County could make a pretty good argument for Texas' reopening on Friday.  The mayor of Paris, Texas — a pit stop for drivers passing through to snap a selfie with the city's miniaturized Eiffel Tower — had drive-thru virus testing in the works, just to give locals...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Tomorrow is Phase 1 opening day for Texas!
> 
> View attachment 121586
> 
> The Dallas Diocese is doing a slow reopening as well.
> 
> What could go wrong?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'And then, boom': Outbreak shows shaky ground as Texas opens
> 
> 
> Barely a week ago, rural Lamar County could make a pretty good argument for Texas' reopening on Friday.  The mayor of Paris, Texas — a pit stop for drivers passing through to snap a selfie with the city's miniaturized Eiffel Tower — had drive-thru virus testing in the works, just to give locals...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




 I like reading history. 1928 an interesting year. So is 1932. Novembers interesting.


----------



## ad_hoc

IHME | COVID-19 Projections
					

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.




					covid19.healthdata.org
				




Going back to this site and how wrong they are:

Yesterday they projected 121 deaths in New Jersey with a range of 25-372.

There were 458 deaths.

As of August 4th they are predicting 7246 deaths with a range of 6587 to 9094.

This prediction was made on April 28th.

There are currently 7228 recorded deaths in New Jersey. It only took 2 days for the death count to reach the point they are predicting it will be on August 4th.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> IHME | COVID-19 Projections
> 
> 
> Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> covid19.healthdata.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Going back to this site and how wrong they are:
> 
> Yesterday they projected 121 deaths in New Jersey with a range of 25-372.
> 
> There were 458 deaths.
> 
> As of August 4th they are predicting 7246 deaths with a range of 6587 to 9094.
> 
> This prediction was made on April 28th.
> 
> There are currently 7228 recorded deaths in New Jersey. It only took 2 days for the death count to reach the point they are predicting it will be on August 4th.




NJ isn't much bigger than NZ. 8 vs 5 million. 

Actually watched a video on it. 

 It's about the size geographically of my province.

 I know where a lot is but in my head I struggle to think how big things are in state size or travel times. 

 By that I mean how long would it take to drive from NJ to Connecticut. Family next door as a kid was from Connecticut.


----------



## Imaculata

Meanwhile The Netherlands is now also seeing its share of anti-lockdown protesters along with people protesting against the upcoming 5g network. Because stupid tends to flock together.

We've had a few cases of people setting fire to radio towers, because of dumb rumours that 5g would be some how related to Corona. Not only is this just plain stupid, but we don't even have 5g towers yet! They are all 4g!

Fortunately, there's also some good news. Since today a rapid test has become available for hospitals, which allows them to test someone for Corona in under an hour. But hospitals near where I live are flooded with patients right now. It doesn't help that a large portion of the population in my province is really really stupid and irresponsible.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> Meanwhile The Netherlands is now also seeing its share of anti-lockdown protesters along with people protesting against the upcoming 5g network. Because stupid tends to flock together.
> 
> We've had a few cases of people setting fire to radio towers, because of dumb rumours that 5g would be some how related to Corona. Not only is this just plain stupid, but we don't even have 5g towers yet! They are all 4g!




 Luddites lol. Internet's making people dumber.

 Happy pic. My harbor at this time of year. I think one of the islands is Quarantine Island. 





Not my photo r/NewZealand.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> Meanwhile The Netherlands is now also seeing its share of anti-lockdown protesters along with people protesting against the upcoming 5g network. Because stupid tends to flock together.
> 
> We've had a few cases of people setting fire to radio towers, because of dumb rumours that 5g would be some how related to Corona. Not only is this just plain stupid, but we don't even have 5g towers yet! They are all 4g!


----------



## LuisCarlos17f

I am really furious. My goverment has been buying Chinse sanitary material (face masks or test kits), being more expensive and worse quality. Once a cockroach was found in a sent pack. They don't buy to Spanish companies, with best price and quality, and these are exporting to neighbour countries. Or we are a sattelite dictatorship, our politicians would rather embezzlement to collect commissions, or both. 

Spain is becoming a new Venezuela, a narco-dictatorship. We were warned but I couldn't think this would happen so fast thanks this epidemic.

Someday somebody will produce an action-live movie about the current Spanish goverment as one of the best examples of toxic bosses and all damage these can cause.

Nursing homes weren't allowed to buy EPIs/lab coats. Lots of doctors have been infected by fault of bad sanitary material. 

This goverment is seizing material, but it doesn't distribute them, but waiting in the storehouses. A rich businessmen, Armancio Ortega, donated lots face maks, but discarded by the govement becuase there were according about European rules (lies!).

I am afair they are trying to sabotage the recuperation of the regions ruled by the opposition parties. 

This goverment is going to end in the justice trials. Their actions are, literally, a crime. 

And if the future electoral polls say they are still the favorites, then the alarms should go off and we have to ask international help, because this would be the sign they are getting ready for a new electoral fraude. It is impossible to avoid a hard punishment after this.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Inside a major research effort:








						Inside the Army's 24/7 lab working to develop a unique coronavirus vaccine
					

ABC News was invited inside the Army lab now open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week in pursuit of a coronavirus vaccine.




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not quite that simple. Some dishes & cuisines really don’t fare well as takeout.




Then you change the menu.  Holding static in the face of change is a losing strategy.

Here's a local restaurant that's doing what it needs to do as an example.









						This Massachusetts restaurant innovated in the face of the pandemic, hired 50 employees back
					

Owners of the Rail Trail Flatbread Company and New City Microcreamery are implementing new ideas weekly to attract customers.




					www.masslive.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Then you change the menu.  Holding static in the face of change is a losing strategy.
> 
> Here's a local restaurant that's doing what it needs to do as an example.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This Massachusetts restaurant innovated in the face of the pandemic, hired 50 employees back
> 
> 
> Owners of the Rail Trail Flatbread Company and New City Microcreamery are implementing new ideas weekly to attract customers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.masslive.com



For some cuisines, that’s simply not an option.  

Much of French cuisine uses delicate sauces which won’t travel well.  Soufflés sometimes have trouble making it to the table intact; a ride in your car would be a death sentence.

Seafood has similar issues with travel and reheating.  Overcooking shellfish results is rubbery texture and, in some cases, a change in flavor.  Reheating something like that will yield similar results.

I’m not saying there’s NO solution, just that for certain cuisines, certain dishes, it’s VERY problematic.  Someone WILL figure it out.   Perhaps French restau will triple their prices, and still survive,

Or people will become satisfied with dishes that are “reasonable facsimiles”, as they have with Caesar salads.  (For those who don’t know, the original recipe called for the dressing to be made with anchovies and raw egg.)


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> For some cuisines, that’s simply not an option.




If your _entire cuisine_ is such that it doesn't travel well, first, I think maybe your view of your cuisine is a bit narrow.  Second, you may have to get creative.

I know of one restaurant in downtown Boston that has a challenge - they are down in the business district, with only a very small population of people actually living anywhere nearby them. Their cuisine isn't delicate, but few assembled dishes will fare well after a half hour car ride.

So, they aren't selling their dishes.  They are selling kits to assemble their dishes at home - elements fully cooked, with instructions on how to revive them not just right after arrival, but up to days afterwards.

Viewing your food, or pretty much any aspect of your business, in the same old way does not cut it right now.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> If your _entire cuisine_ is such that it doesn't travel well, first, I think maybe your view of your cuisine is a bit narrow.  Second, you may have to get creative.
> 
> I know of one restaurant in downtown Boston that has a challenge - they are down in the business district, with only a very small population of people actually living anywhere nearby them. Their cuisine isn't delicate, but few assembled dishes will fare well after a half hour car ride.
> 
> So, they aren't selling their dishes.  They are selling kits to assemble their dishes at home - elements fully cooked, with instructions on how to revive them not just right after arrival, but up to days afterwards.
> 
> Viewing your food, or pretty much any aspect of your business, in the same old way does not cut it right now.




True.  Though I think Danny eats fancier than the rest of us


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> True.  Though I think Danny eats fancier than the rest of us




That's probably a fair guess.


----------



## ad_hoc

ad_hoc said:


> Here you go
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 121439





Well this happened:


----------



## Istbor

ad_hoc said:


> Well this happened:




Oh Florida.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

ad_hoc said:


> Well this happened:



I especially like how Death mills around awkwardly in the background after he says his piece. 
Actually... it kinda reminds me of some D&D campaigns I've run.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> If your _entire cuisine_ is such that it doesn't travel well, first, I think maybe your view of your cuisine is a bit narrow.  Second, you may have to get creative.
> 
> I know of one restaurant in downtown Boston that has a challenge - they are down in the business district, with only a very small population of people actually living anywhere nearby them. Their cuisine isn't delicate, but few assembled dishes will fare well after a half hour car ride.
> 
> So, they aren't selling their dishes.  They are selling kits to assemble their dishes at home - elements fully cooked, with instructions on how to revive them not just right after arrival, but up to days afterwards.
> 
> Viewing your food, or pretty much any aspect of your business, in the same old way does not cut it right now.




I’ve been cooking a variety of cuisines for 40 years, some at a pretty high level.

There’s very few classic French dishes I actually cook because many French recipes are either complex and time consuming, or because they require precision I don’t have the time or skill for.  Sometimes all of the above.  There are dishes in French cuisine that require _days*_ of work.

So the idea that you’d sell kits for some of this stuff is...stretching things.

There _is _simpler fare in French cuisine, no doubt.  Julia Child did a couple hundred episodes of her show, mostly centered on teaching French cooking recipes and techniques to average home cooks.

...but that’s typically NOT the stuff you’re finding in the restaurants.

Keeping it simpler, consider sushi or hibachi places, Brazilian churrascarias, or even the great American steakhouses serving things like tomahawk chops and marrow.

Sushi isn’t just fish on Uncle Bens.  And takeout cannot in any way mimic the churrascaria experience,

Hell, just looking at my native cuisine, how many people have the equipment (and skill) to _safely_ fry a turkey or do a cajun seafood boil at home?  _I_ certainly don’t- I leave that to a couple of particular relatives.**

Some of these may not survive in a commercially viable form.  At least, not for Joe Middle Class.


* ditto some of the creole recipes I know,,,and generally don’t mess with anymore.

** who all moved back to Louisiana, the bastiches!


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’ve been cooking a variety of cuisines for 40 years, some at a pretty high level.
> 
> There’s very few classic French dishes I actually cook because many French recipes are either complex and time consuming, or because they require precision I don’t have the time or skill for.  Sometimes all of the above.  There are dishes in French cuisine that require _days*_ of work.
> 
> So the idea that you’d sell kits for some of this stuff is...stretching things.
> 
> There _is _simpler fare in French cuisine, no doubt.  Julia Child did a couple hundred episodes of her show, mostly centered on teaching French cooking recipes and techniques to average home cooks.
> 
> ...but that’s typically NOT the stuff you’re finding in the restaurants.
> 
> Keeping it simpler, consider sushi or hibachi places, Brazilian churrascarias, or even the great American steakhouses serving things like tomahawk chops and marrow.
> 
> Sushi isn’t just fish on Uncle Bens.  And takeout cannot in any way mimic the churrascaria experience,
> 
> Hell, just looking at my native cuisine, how many people have the equipment (and skill) to _safely_ fry a turkey or do a cajun seafood boil at home?  _I_ certainly don’t- I leave that to a couple of particular relatives.**
> 
> Some of these may not survive in a commercially viable form.  At least, not for Joe Middle Class.
> 
> 
> * ditto some of the creole recipes I know,,,and generally don’t mess with anymore.
> 
> ** who all moved back to Louisiana, the bastiches!




Great depression the stuff that survived was the really cheap stuff and high end stuff. 

 Streetfood, popcorn etc. It's not just whayt can be done well for delivery but who has the money.


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> *Streedfood*, popcorn etc. It's not just *want* can be done well for delivery but who *a d* where *gas* the money.



Zard, I think your spellcheck has a virus of its own.


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> Zard, I think your spellcheck has a virus of its own.




 Yeah this phone is a pain.


----------



## Hussar

I would point out though, @Dannyalcatraz that sushi is very much a home delivery food.  There's a whole industry here for home delivering sushi and even the really expensive places will do it.  It is an advantage when, basically, all your dish really is is raw fish and rice with vinegar.  It does travel really well.

Frankly, I think @Imaro has the point of it.  Restaurants need to look at their menus and focus on the stuff that DOES travel well and sell that.  Sure, soufflé's won't travel, but, that's hardly the be all and end all of French food.  

Or, put it another way.  China has thousands of years of food culture.  There are incredibly intricate and difficult Chinese dishes.  But, that's not what you find in an American Chinese restaurant for take out or delivery.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’m not saying sushi can’t be _takeout_- I’ve done that myself- I’m saying sushi doesn’t lend itself to DIY kits...at least in the West.

As for French cuisine, I‘m extremely skeptical that chefs are going to trade off the high-end for the rustic, or even fusion things like croissant sandwiches.  Michelin stars are at stake.  The traditions and knowledge of Le Cordon Bleu are at stake.  There are chefs that can trace their educational roots back generations like a martial arts dojo.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I see good news








						Scientists discover 5 FDA-approved drugs are effective at stopping coronavirus spread in the body
					

A massive global collaboration of scientists has discovered several possible ways we could treat COVID-19.Dozens of researchers have discovered that five existing drugs and a range of other drug compounds are effective at blocking COVID-19 from infecting human cells, they revealed in a study...




					news.yahoo.com
				




I see bad news








						Brazil is letting the coronavirus run wild with little intervention, and the results are strikingly bad
					

Brazil's president has put virtually no measures in place to help prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus. Now it's facing a surge in cases.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I see good news
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Scientists discover 5 FDA-approved drugs are effective at stopping coronavirus spread in the body
> 
> 
> A massive global collaboration of scientists has discovered several possible ways we could treat COVID-19.Dozens of researchers have discovered that five existing drugs and a range of other drug compounds are effective at blocking COVID-19 from infecting human cells, they revealed in a study...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I see bad news
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Brazil is letting the coronavirus run wild with little intervention, and the results are strikingly bad
> 
> 
> Brazil's president has put virtually no measures in place to help prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus. Now it's facing a surge in cases.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




Brazil's one of those countries to keep an eye on. 

 Venezuela would be another. How bad can it get? Well here you go.  Nigeria might be another.

 USA isn't the worst.

Isolation isn't an option in a lot of countries even if they try. Afghanistan is going hungry already. So is India iirc.

 Today's update
 1 death 6 new cases.

 Can't seem to wipe it out in one of the strictist  lockdowns on an island nation with reasonably few cases. 

 We're slowly opening up as well. Don't really have a choice.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m not saying sushi can’t be _takeout_- I’ve done that myself- I’m saying sushi doesn’t lend itself to DIY kits...at least in the West.




I think somewhere a point got lost - doing food as a kit is for dishes that don't travel well assembled.



> As for French cuisine, I‘m extremely skeptical that chefs are going to trade off the high-end for the rustic, or even fusion things like croissant sandwiches.  Michelin stars are at stake.




The Michelin stars won't mean a heck of a lot if the restaurant closes.  And, if the Michelin organization doesn't look at the current situation and say, "You know, we're going to cut folks some slack this year," then they are Grade-A Fancy Jumbo Free Range Organic Jerkbombs, and their opinions on food cease to be compelling.



> The traditions and knowledge of Le Cordon Bleu are at stake.  There are chefs that can trace their educational roots back generations like a martial arts dojo.




That's very nice.  Interestingly, those traditions have managed to survive several devastating wars without falling apart.  They can survive a year off for pandemic.  If you have too much pride to stoop to making a few sandwiches so that your kitchen staff still has jobs in a trying time... maybe the problem isn't the fragility of your traditions.


----------



## Azzy

Istbor said:


> Oh Florida.



Oh, indeed (says the Floridian).

At least this is one of the least embarassing Florida Man stories.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> I think somewhere a point got lost - doing food as a kit is for dishes that don't travel well assembled.
> 
> 
> 
> The Michelin stars won't mean a heck of a lot if the restaurant closes.  And, if the Michelin organization doesn't look at the current situation and say, "You know, we're going to cut folks some slack this year," then they are Grade-A Fancy Jumbo Free Range Organic Jerkbombs, and their opinions on food cease to be compelling.
> 
> 
> 
> That's very nice.  Interestingly, those traditions have managed to survive several devastating wars without falling apart.  They can survive a year off for pandemic.  If you have too much pride to stoop to making a few sandwiches so that your kitchen staff still has jobs in a trying time... maybe the problem isn't the fragility of your traditions.




Pretty much it's adapt or die. Some will adapt and due anyway. 

 We've ordered two premium burgers and tater tots. Just under $30 with two hour wait time on the delivery. 

 We're going to to two local joints once lockdown goes to level two for as long as we can. Used to go once a month h probably kick that up to twice a monthbut there's a limit if we both lose jobs. 

 Beats me what I'ma gonna be doing in 2 months though. 

 Kick that can down the road and worry about it later. Couldn't pay me to be in the USA though.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I think somewhere a point got lost - doing food as a kit is for dishes that don't travel well assembled.



Ah!  I had the wrong end of the stick there!



> The Michelin stars won't mean a heck of a lot if the restaurant closes.  And, if the Michelin organization doesn't look at the current situation and say, "You know, we're going to cut folks some slack this year," then they are Grade-A Fancy Jumbo Free Range Organic Jerkbombs, and their opinions on food cease to be compelling.
> 
> That's very nice.  Interestingly, those traditions have managed to survive several devastating wars without falling apart.  They can survive a year off for pandemic.  If you have too much pride to stoop to making a few sandwiches so that your kitchen staff still has jobs in a trying time... maybe the problem isn't the fragility of your traditions.




I’m not talking short-term.  I have no doubt that _some_ of these establishments are doing their part for both their staff AND their communities Some were being good citizens BEFORE the pandemic.*

I’m saying it takes certain economic and physical realities to make a French restaurant (and other high-end dining experiences) viable as a commercial enterprise as we know it.

And there is a very real chance that Covid-19 will undermine the economics, not just for a year or two, but possibly for the foreseeable future.

The truly high end ones can probably simply raise prices.  The ones people NOT in the top 1% get to enjoy a time or two per year probably can’t.




* I know of one chef who opened what we would call a soup kitchen, but unlike what most of such places look like, HIS is well-litand run like his restaurant.


----------



## Zardnaar

Half our fatalities are from a single rest home in effect a hospice.









						Inside Rosewood: The rest home with over half of NZ's Covid-19 deaths
					

How did the virus get inside Christchurch's Rosewood Rest Home and Hospitals? Was it bad luck? Was the care adequate?




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 More expected.

 Biggest city has had 0 fatalities. 

 That's the dumb luck factor I suppose. 5 weeks ago the biggest hot spot was my province due to a wedding and business conference in one if our tourist traps.

 Dumb luck and population density/tourism seem to be the universal factors.


----------



## Imaculata

ad_hoc said:


> Well this happened:




Wow, I got pretty much what I asked for. This is great.

Now I want a hundred million dollars... 

*(looks around)*

...Nawww!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yay, ‘Murica. 








						City's proclamation requiring face masks in stores and restaurants is amended after threats of violence | CNN
					

An emergency proclamation issued Thursday in Stillwater, Oklahoma, requiring the use of face masks in stores and restaurants was amended Friday after threats of violence.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

In non-sequitur news, the USA has something new to deal with.  








						Invasive 'Murder Hornets' Have Appeared in the United States and Officials Worry They're Here to Stay
					

They attack and destroy honeybee hives, entering a "slaughter phase" where they literally decapitate bees




					time.com


----------



## The Green Hermit

Old news. They've been around for a couple of years.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> City's proclamation requiring face masks in stores and restaurants is amended after threats of violence | CNN
> 
> 
> An emergency proclamation issued Thursday in Stillwater, Oklahoma, requiring the use of face masks in stores and restaurants was amended Friday after threats of violence.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com



The mayor can bemoan the fact that breathalyzers cannot detect Coronavirus, only recent alcohol consumption.
Come to think of it, such a device would address a bunch of bothersome issues and bolster enforcement of 'wear a mask' orders.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yay, ‘Murica.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> City's proclamation requiring face masks in stores and restaurants is amended after threats of violence | CNN
> 
> 
> An emergency proclamation issued Thursday in Stillwater, Oklahoma, requiring the use of face masks in stores and restaurants was amended Friday after threats of violence.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com




So...they can just threaten to hurt people if they don't like laws or rules? 

And they're okay with that?

The thugs must be white.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

It’s not legal, but people get away with that all the time.

Part of that is the simple fact that our courts are backed up enough that, even though the threats may rise to the level of criminality, most DAs are not going to be able to afford to “sweat the small stuff”.  So there are no repercussions.  And a lack of repercussions emboldens the offenders.


----------



## Hussar

Mind blowing.  

I must remember the next time I'm in the states that I can go to a restaurant with no shirt or shoes and then just bully the staff into serving me.  

Good grief.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s not legal, but people get away with that all the time.
> 
> Part of that is the simple fact that our courts are backed up enough that, even though the threats may rise to the level of criminality, most DAs are not going to be able to afford to “sweat the small stuff”.  So there are no repercussions.  And a lack of repercussions emboldens the offenders.




As an outsider it looks like the courts have no problem with the 'small stuff' if the person isn't white.

I'm sure you have a much more informed and lived perspective on that than I do though.

It's still astounding to me that they're all okay with this. Toronto doesn't have mask wearing guidelines in place so I guess I don't know what the actual result would be here but I doubt very much that would be it.

I also saw the story where it was okay that armed thugs stormed a government building threatening to murder a governor.


----------



## Zardnaar

USA not to popular on our social media. Very spicy memes. 

 2 cases more of the same.









						Two new cases of Covid-19 and no deaths
					

The Ministry of Health has announced two new cases of Covid-19, no new probable cases, and no deaths today.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Suffering in my South Pacific Police State.


----------



## MoonSong

Zardnaar said:


> Suffering in my South Pacific Police State.



At least they are competent and are well funded. The local health system in my country was going through a restructuring when this started. Key hospitals are already saturated, and the others are around 85% full. The other day a group of people attacked a hospital in a poor county and managed to get inside, the personal had no protective gear -oh yes, doctors, nurses and other hospital workers have to buy their own masks, gloves and other gear- , and the bodies were stacked on top of each other. The National Guard had to intervene and now is keeping watch of that hospital. 

There's a worry that now these people have gotten exposed to the virus since they were opening body bags. They were filming the whole time!. 

But beyond that, hopefully next weak we'll hit peak contagion rate...


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> At least they are competent and are well funded. The local health system in my country was going through a restructuring when this started. Key hospitals are already saturated, and the others are around 85% full. The other day a group of people attacked a hospital in a poor county and managed to get inside, the personal had no protective gear -oh yes, doctors, nurses and other hospital workers have to buy their own masks, gloves and other gear- , and the bodies were stacked on top of each other. The National Guard had to intervene and now is keeping watch of that hospital.
> 
> There's a worry that now these people have gotten exposed to the virus since they were opening body bags. They were filming the whole time!.
> 
> But beyond that, hopefully next weak we'll hit peak contagion rate...




 Humans!!!!

 Rise of the NZ Empire. We'll enforce or culture on the world. All disputes will be settled via rugby in the hippodrome in Auckland. Bare feet will be mandatory on Sundays. 

Look at my flag and our trained killer attack sheep.









						Laser Kiwi flag
					

Fire the Lazar! designed by James Gray




					nzhistory.govt.nz
				




 We are playing Europa Universalis IV with NZ as a custom nation right?


----------



## ad_hoc

New York State has completed 15 000 randomized antibody tests.

12.3% came back positive. 12.3% of the population is 2.4 million. There have been 24 000 reported deaths. That makes a death rate of 1% though the CDC thinks the real death rate is likely 36 000 so maybe up to 1.5%.

I think that is about where people thought it would be. Then consider that overwhelming the healthcare system would result in a much higher death rate both of COVID 19 and other illnesses and we can see the disaster of the 'let it burn' strategy.

50-70% of the population needs to be immune for herd immunity if I remember correctly so they still have a far way to go (and we don't actually know what sort of immunity being exposed will provide).

57% of people surveyed were white and 7% of them came back with a positive test. That means that white people in New York State are contracting the virus at half the rate of non-white people. 

So that's important to look into.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> New York State has completed 15 000 randomized antibody tests.
> 
> 12.3% came back positive. 12.3% of the population is 2.4 million. There have been 24 000 reported deaths. That makes a death rate of 1% though the CDC thinks the real death rate is likely 36 000 so maybe up to 1.5%.
> 
> I think that is about where people thought it would be. Then consider that overwhelming the healthcare system would result in a much higher death rate both of COVID 19 and other illnesses and we can see the disaster of the 'let it burn' strategy.
> 
> 50-70% of the population needs to be immune for herd immunity if I remember correctly so they still have a far way to go (and we don't actually know what sort of immunity being exposed will provide).
> 
> 57% of people surveyed were white and 7% of them came back with a positive test. That means that white people in New York State are contracting the virus at half the rate of non-white people.
> 
> So that's important to look into.




 Article I read was the poorer suburbs are the hardest hit as they tend to cram in more and more people in a residence. Makes isolation harder and more people to get sick.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Article I read was the poorer suburbs are the hardest hit as they tend to cram in more and more people in a residence. Makes isolation harder and more people to get sick.



That’s one factor in what’s happening in Singapore right now- lots of people (mostly foreigners) crammed together in tight, low quality living spaces are a new hotspot.








						Singapore Seemed to Have Coronavirus Under Control, Until Cases Doubled (Published 2020)
					

The spread suggests that it is unrealistic for the United States, Europe and the rest of the world to return to the way they were anytime soon, even if viral curves appear to flatten.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That’s one factor in what’s happening in Singapore right now- lots of people (mostly foreigners) crammed together in tight, low quality living spaces.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Singapore Seemed to Have Coronavirus Under Control, Until Cases Doubled (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> The spread suggests that it is unrealistic for the United States, Europe and the rest of the world to return to the way they were anytime soon, even if viral curves appear to flatten.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com




Yeah the migrant workers. Apartment living here is a bit of foreign concept. They're throwing $100 million hiring out empty hotels as emergency housing. 

 Motel rooms not ideal but it's better than a box or the street I suppose. Can't self isolate on the street. 

 A few trapped tourists just in camper vans parked up in various places. Some are enjoying it.


----------



## Hussar

They've been doing the hotel thing here for a while.  Again, because of the law, if you test positive, you must be quarantined.  Which means that they had to fill up hotels for those who are more or less asymptomatic or just not all that sick.  Which also means they refuse to test in large numbers because it would quickly overwhelm the system.  

Getting reports now of people having to travel between multiple hospitals just to get the test and being forced to go home without testing in other cases.  Or, the doctor doesn't test, tells the patient, oh, it's just the flu, here's some medicine.  There's a case of that out right now where the guy's son was being absolutely cyber bullied because he caught corona from his dad after his dad was told he didn't have it.

Sigh.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

This is the first weekend of a partial opening here in rural TX, so a lot of little churches have re-opened their doors this morning. My 70-something parents have chosen to attend. _* sigh *_

I'm dreading a spike in cases in a couple weeks, and getting locked down again harder and longer than before. I kind of want to flee while things are relatively open for us here, but that would be counter-productive, I suppose.. .  

On the positive side, the weather is already topping 100°F/37°C, so maybe it will melt the coronavirus away.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Our church is doing limited reopening.  No masses, but they will be holding events with limited attendances- funerals, weddings, those kinds of things.  That way, they can still adhere to the 25% capacity rule and monitor social distancing.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

This particular church is a little bitty one, and sensible I think. The normal congregation is probably smaller than the 25% capacity limit for the building, so the social distancing isn't a problem. It's mostly seniors, though, so that's a concern. On the other hand, church is often the only social outlet for some people--especially elderly-- so I certainly understand the desire to open back up.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

In our case, our church is one of (as I recall) the 5 biggest Catholi churches in the USA, with a total enrollment of something like 25-30k- bigger than many so-called mega churches.

We don’t have a huge arena, though.  Instead, we offer several standard masses, a teen mass, and a couple of Spanish masses spread out ftom Saturday evening through a Sunday evening.  Of course, being Catholic, that means not everyone goes to weekly masses, soooo... _ahem_


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Not good:








						Russia is rapidly becoming one of the world's coronavirus hotspots, and it just reported a record 10,000 new cases in a day
					

A total of 134,687 people are now confirmed to have had coronavirus in Russia, making it the seventh most-infected country on the planet.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not good:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia is rapidly becoming one of the world's coronavirus hotspots, and it just reported a record 10,000 new cases in a day
> 
> 
> A total of 134,687 people are now confirmed to have had coronavirus in Russia, making it the seventh most-infected country on the planet.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




 Talking to Russians in my other forums. They're saying the deathtoll is large. A few non Russians are saying the numbers are massaged. I don't see why they would admit to 100k cases though if they were massaging numbers. 

Health systems not the best but they're a bit more inclined to follow orders, can manufacture and use ventilators and seem to have more masks than the west.

My favorite comment was "we don't normally believe the government but believed them in this for whatever reason". 

 They're used to economic problems every 10 years.


----------



## Eltab

Indiana is opening up churches in the next two weekends.  I forwarded the suggestion to my church admins that the first in-person services be aimed at our elderly / fragile members, since they will have other restrictions on them for longer.  We can be confident after this long quarantine period that they do not have the virus so they cannot infect each other.  Let them see each other, their friends, &c.  The rest of us can wait a week or three longer.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Our houseguest- who still thinks this is a lefty exaggeration/hoax- has a Russian daughter in law. A Muscovite, in fact.  I don’t know that they’ve discussed the pandemic itself, just the possibility of our guest moving in with them post-lockdown.

It will be interesting to see if her D.I.L. can convince her where an MD could not.  Of course, if the D.I.L. is in denial...


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Eltab said:


> Indiana is opening up churches in the next two weekends.  I forwarded the suggestion to my church admins that the first in-person services be aimed at our elderly / fragile members, since they will have other restrictions on them for longer.  We can be confident after this long quarantine period that they do not have the virus so they cannot infect each other.  Let them see each other, their friends, &c.  The rest of us can wait a week or three longer.




I see what you mean, and I think the risk is probably worth it - social isolation is hard on everyone, particularly the elderly - but it's still relatively risky. Definitely better to do in smaller groups, for sure.


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Talking to Russians in my other forums. They're saying the deathtoll is large. A few non Russians are saying the numbers are massaged. I don't see why they would admit to 100k cases though if they were massaging numbers.




Because that IS the massaged #?


----------



## Eltab

FitzTheRuke said:


> I see what you mean, and I think the risk is probably worth it - social isolation is hard on everyone, particularly the elderly - but it's still relatively risky. Definitely better to do in smaller groups, for sure.



Our building has a sanctuary, a "study hall" (sanctuary from before renovation), a grade school gym.  We can pipe sound and video through the building if needed.  It looks like we have the floor space if people must stay in small groups a few steps away from each other.


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> Because that IS the massaged #?




 Maybe not. There's still plain old incompetence or pneumonia misdiagnosed. If it is massaged they're doing a terrible job. 

 They can use drones as well. They caught a rush on hospitals on drones. They're not using mass graves yet and there's no great firewall in Russia. 

Deathtoll probably higher than official figures but it's not overwhelming. 

They also built an emergency hostpital that looks a lot better than the China concrete death boxes.

2-3 weeks ago their lockdown was a joke. Panic Buying started about a week after NZ did it.

 Russian YouTubers went to dachas but that's more if a middle class thing for them.

Not overly exciting but she seems genuine enough compared to others. She has two channels but updates frequently.



 Not very propaganda as far as I can tell. They're not even that nationalistic.

 Found Russian macro lagers are quite decent. No worse than most Eurolagers and a couple are very nice hence interest in Russia. Well casual interest from school and university classes.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In our case, our church is one of (as I recall) the 5 biggest Catholi churches in the USA, with a total enrollment of something like 25-30k- bigger than many so-called mega churches.
> 
> We don’t have a huge arena, though.  Instead, we offer several standard masses, a teen mass, and a couple of Spanish masses spread out ftom Saturday evening through a Sunday evening.  Of course, being Catholic, that means not everyone goes to weekly masses, soooo... _ahem_




I looked up church attendance rates to compare to my area.

Looks like 42% of adult Texans attend church weekly.

In Canada only around 10% of people attend church weekly. That's probably quite a bit lower in Ontario too as Quebec has a large Catholic population and the Conservative provinces like Alberta probably have higher attendance.

None are going to be near America's numbers though.

Even New York is at 29% according to the site I'm looking at.

I can see how that is a huge problem for spread.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yes, indeed.  Especially since so many christian houses of worship tend towards bench seating, in order to maximize capacity,


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A reality check of sorts:








						What happens if a coronavirus vaccine is never developed? It has happened before | CNN
					

As countries lie frozen in lockdown and billions of people lose their livelihoods, public figures are teasing a breakthrough that would mark the end of the crippling coronavirus pandemic: a vaccine.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> They caught a rush on hospitals on drones.




LOL.  I'm sorry, I read this as a "rush on hospitals BY drones" and I was scratching my head as to why drones would be getting sick.    Sorry, being silly.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Sooo...like...it’s been nice knowin’ y’all.

Gov. DeWine: My face mask order went ‘too far’









						Reopening states will cause 233,000 more people to die from coronavirus, according to Wharton model
					

Reopening states amid coronavirus could cause as many as 350,000 people to die by the end of June, according to a new Wharton model.




					finance.yahoo.com
				




Remember the good things about the USA when you talk about us.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sooo...like...it’s been nice knowin’ y’all.
> 
> Gov. DeWine: My face mask order went ‘too far’
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Reopening states will cause 233,000 more people to die from coronavirus, according to Wharton model
> 
> 
> Reopening states amid coronavirus could cause as many as 350,000 people to die by the end of June, according to a new Wharton model.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> finance.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Remember the good things about the USA when you talk about us.




Trump wanted to reopen the border with Canada.

Our prime minister shut that down so quickly.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sooo...like...it’s been nice knowin’ y’all.
> 
> Gov. DeWine: My face mask order went ‘too far’
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Reopening states will cause 233,000 more people to die from coronavirus, according to Wharton model
> 
> 
> Reopening states amid coronavirus could cause as many as 350,000 people to die by the end of June, according to a new Wharton model.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> finance.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Remember the good things about the USA when you talk about us.




 There's good things? At least you're not Australians I suppose. 

 New cases 0. First time in 49 days.









						Live: Dr Ashley Bloomfield warns Kiwis 'not to slacken off now'
					

It's the first time we have no new cases of Covid-19, the director-general of health says.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> There's good things? At least you're not Australians I suppose.




I’ll take it!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Courtesy of our houseguest, the word of the day: “plandemic”, a portmanteau of “planned” and “pandemic”.  You’ll find that in the context of anti-Fauci, anti-Gates, anti-vax, anti-chip and similar rhetoric.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Courtesy of our houseguest, the word of the day: “plandemic”.  You’ll find that in the context of anti-Fauci, anti-Gates, anti-vax, anti-chip and similar rhetoric.




 Earth is flat, tinfoil hat etc?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Not in _her_ case, but...

Generally the government does nothing good for anyone crowd.


----------



## Azzy

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sooo...like...it’s been nice knowin’ y’all.
> 
> Gov. DeWine: My face mask order went ‘too far’
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Reopening states will cause 233,000 more people to die from coronavirus, according to Wharton model
> 
> 
> Reopening states amid coronavirus could cause as many as 350,000 people to die by the end of June, according to a new Wharton model.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> finance.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Remember the good things about the USA when you talk about us.




I am so sick of this cult of ignorance that has infected the US. I'm not sure if the country, as we know it, will continue to exist another 25 years.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Reopening states will cause 233,000 more people to die from coronavirus, according to Wharton model
> 
> 
> Reopening states amid coronavirus could cause as many as 350,000 people to die by the end of June, according to a new Wharton model.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> finance.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Remember the good things about the USA when you talk about us.



Yikes! That article is kinda... word saladalicious. Here's one from closer to the source at Penn State that I think is a bit clearer:








						Penn Wharton Budget Model projects reopening states early could cause up to 233,000 extra deaths | Penn Today
					

The Penn Wharton Budget Model analyzed the health and economic effects of states both partially and fully reopening schools, businesses and restaurants.




					penntoday.upenn.edu
				



edit: Aand a link to the study itself:








						Coronavirus Policy Response Simulator: Health and Economic Effects of State Reopenings — Penn Wharton Budget Model
					

Using an integrated, interdisciplinary modeling approach, this simulator forecasts the state-level health and economic effects of reopening businesses and relaxing stay-at-home orders. This simulator will be updated regularly as new data arrive.




					budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu


----------



## Zardnaar

Azzy said:


> I am so sick of this cult of ignorance that has infected the US. I'm not sure if the country, as we know it, will continue to exist another 25 years.




 Nothing new. Look up luddites. 

 Every now and then say 40-50 years you generally get a transitional event. Depression, war, pandemic, political philosophy etc. 

  Regardless of who wins things change in the next event. 

 Empires come empires go.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz




----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


>




 I remember them late 90s? Sort of a crap joke band and yet they have their juggalos.


----------



## Istbor

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yay, ‘Murica.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> City's proclamation requiring face masks in stores and restaurants is amended after threats of violence | CNN
> 
> 
> An emergency proclamation issued Thursday in Stillwater, Oklahoma, requiring the use of face masks in stores and restaurants was amended Friday after threats of violence.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com




Geez. Imagine people threatening to harm or kill others because the gas station doesn't let you in bare-foot.

I mean, is it annoying to wear a mask? Sure. It isn't an infringement on my personal freedoms though. At least in my opinion. I also don't see it as some sort of conspiracy to 'train' me to obey orders in the future.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> I also do see it as some sort of conspiracy to 'train' me to obey orders in the future.




So, some years ago, two murderous wretches set off a pair of bombs at the Boston Marathon.  

In the manhunt that ensued, authorities asked Bostonians to stay indoors.  And we did, in droves.  The Greater Boston Area became a ghost town.  Streets were more empty then than they are now.

And folks around the nation... shoveled derision and criticism on us for it.  Said we were cowering in fear.  Called us sheep for following orders.  

Nobody outside the Boston area really got this - we were not afraid of these chuckleheads.  Nobody was staying in afraid that the Tsarnaev brothers would get us.  We wanted the rat bastards caught, and we realized that the best way to do that was to stay out of the way of the professionals.  

Sometimes, following orders is the smart way to get what you want done.


----------



## ad_hoc

Istbor said:


> Geez. Imagine people threatening to harm or kill others because the gas station doesn't let you in bare-foot.
> 
> I mean, is it annoying to wear a mask? Sure. It isn't an infringement on my personal freedoms though. At least in my opinion. I also do see it as some sort of conspiracy to 'train' me to obey orders in the future.




You're American right?

The Pledge of Allegiance is the creepiest thing to me. 

It weirds me out whenever I remember that it is a thing. Kids say it every day in school right? Do adults keep saying it?

The whole concept of it is completely offputting to me.

If we want to talk about being trained to obey...that's it.

Not doing what the doctor has told you will save the lives of those around you.


----------



## Istbor

Umbran said:


> So, some years ago, two murderous wretches set off a pair of bombs at the Boston Marathon.
> 
> In the manhunt that ensued, authorities asked Bostonians to stay indoors.  And we did, in droves.  The Greater Boston Area became a ghost town.  Streets were more empty then than they are now.
> 
> And folks around the nation... shoveled derision and criticism on us for it.  Said we were cowering in fear.  Called us sheep for following orders.
> 
> Nobody outside the Boston area really got this - we were not afraid of these chuckleheads.  Nobody was staying in afraid that the Tsarnaev brothers would get us.  We wanted the rat bastards caught, and we realized that the best way to do that was to stay out of the way of the professionals.
> 
> Sometimes, following orders is the smart way to get what you want done.



Lol. That do was meant to be a 'don't'. I will edit.



ad_hoc said:


> You're American right?
> 
> The Pledge of Allegiance is the creepiest thing to me.
> 
> It weirds me out whenever I remember that it is a thing. Kids say it every day in school right? Do adults keep saying it?
> 
> The whole concept of it is completely offputting to me.
> 
> If we want to talk about being trained to obey...that's it.
> 
> Not doing what the doctor has told you will save the lives of those around you.




As above, I goofed and typed do instead of don't. 

I do agree about the pledge of allegiance. While in school (at least grade school, I don't recall whether our high school had us doing it) it was just something you had to do or were supposed to do.

Getting older, if you didn't have to recite it, why both right? It also became clearer as a lite form of indoctrination. I thought it odd that while we have freedom of religion and separation of religion and state, we used a pledge that specifically invokes (or at least implies) a Christian God. I am Catholic, so it wasn't much of blip for me, but as there had been talks and attempts to remove it from everyday use, I was okay with that. 

Why shovel onto others my concept of god to those who choose to believe otherwise? Do onto others and all that. 

Interestingly, I imagine that same folk who threatened violence for having to wear a mask are those who also threatened to pull their children or funding from schools that wanted to leave out the daily pledge. I can at least say I know for a certainty, about those from my home town.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Sometimes, following orders is the smart way to get what you want done.




See also the POTUS’ stretched but not totally off-base metaphor about us being “at war” with the coronavirus.  

Imagine how hard it would have been to win WW1, WW2 or any other major conflict if the people- ESPECIALLY the military- _didn’t_ follow orders.

*****
A picture I WON’T post from one of the protests contains a counterprotester displaying a hilarious slogan that violates ENWorld’s ToS.  The gist: if you think gov’t orders mandating the wearing of masks in public is unconstitutional, the pan so is ANY law forcing people to be clothed.  Ergo, protest naked.

Man had a point.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ad_hoc said:


> It weirds me out whenever I remember that it is a thing. Kids say it every day in school right? Do adults keep saying it?
> 
> The  whole concept of it is completely offputting to me.
> 
> If we want to talk about being trained to obey...that's it.



Its only in public- and a smattering of private (mostly military)- grade schools.  Most adults rarely say it after they leave middle school.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Its only in public- and a smattering of private (mostly military)- grade schools.  Most adults rarely say it after they leave middle school.




I was forced to say a Christian prayer every day in school but that hasn't been a thing since 1988 (well I think my school kept doing it for a couple years after that because small town).


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> Interestingly, I imagine that same folk who threatened violence for having to wear a mask are those who also threatened to pull their children or funding from schools that wanted to leave out the daily pledge. I can at least say I know for a certainty, about those from my home town.




Its a subset of classic conservatism, no question, but also a sentiment shared by elements the far left.  The common thread: distrust of the government.

Which brings me back to a point I made in here weeks ago that some of the tools and practices used by the countries so far doing the best hobs at fighting corvids-19 probably won’t work here in the USA because they depended on trust and obedience to the government. 

Every nation has those who distrust their governments, and in moderation, that’s a good thing.  Especially in more oppressive regimes.  But as a nation, we seem to have a larger percentage of anti-gov types on both ends of our political spectrum than is truly justified.

I mean, we have Anti-vaxxers and white supremacists supporting the same positions.  Strange Bedfellows, indeed.
The Coronavirus Becomes a Battle Cry for U.S. Extremists








						Antivaccination Activists Are Growing Force at Virus Protests (Published 2020)
					

Public health experts fear that their messaging could further harm the country’s response to the pandemic.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ad_hoc said:


> I was forced to say a Christian prayer every day in school but that hasn't been a thing since 1988 (well I think my school kept doing it for a couple years after that because small town).



Smalltown USA is a bit different.  Many are still run by people operating 50+ years behind on constitutional law.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> I remember them late 90s? Sort of a crap joke band and yet they have their juggalos.



Not a fan, myself, but they’ve arguably evolved into much less of a joke and much more of a serious band.  And they have demonstrated time & time again that they love their fans.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> If we want to talk about being trained to obey...that's it.




Yeah, but it doesn't work terribly well... considering that we've been doing that for decades... and still don't follow orders.  So there's that.

Be that as it may, we probably should step away from this line of discussion, because politics.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Its a subset of classic conservatism, no question, but also a sentiment shared by elements the far left.  The common thread: distrust of the government.
> 
> Which brings me back to a point I made in here weeks ago that some of the tools and practices used by the countries so far doing the best hobs at fighting corvids-19 probably won’t work here in the USA because they depended on trust and obedience to the government.
> 
> Every nation has those who distrust their governments, and in moderation, that’s a good thing.  Especially in more oppressive regimes.  But as a nation, we seem to have a larger percentage of anti-gov types on both ends of our political spectrum than is truly justified.
> 
> I mean, we have Anti-vaxxers and white supremacists supporting the same positions.  Strange Bedfellows, indeed.
> The Coronavirus Becomes a Battle Cry for U.S. Extremists
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Antivaccination Activists Are Growing Force at Virus Protests (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> Public health experts fear that their messaging could further harm the country’s response to the pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com




I think anti-science is a big part of it too.

Even our Conservative premier in Ontario is directly following what his health advisors are telling him to do and keeping politics largely out of it. 

He is not doing at all what I thought he would. 

I don't think it's just a matter of trusting the government, I trust the doctors. As long as the government is doing what the doctors say to do I will do it too.

I think a lot of Canadians are that way.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

ad_hoc said:


> I think a lot of Canadians are that way.




I think that's exactly it. Whatever we think of our politicians, we can tell right away if they're listening to doctors, and if they _are_ (which they seem to be), then we will follow what they say. Heck, I know a lot of Canadians who aren't sure that what we're doing is the best thing, but we'll follow doctor's orders _anyway_ because why would you assume you know more than a doctor? Most of us aren't arrogant enough to think we know everything.


----------



## ad_hoc

FitzTheRuke said:


> I think that's exactly it. Whatever we think of our politicians, we can tell right away if they're listening to doctors, and if they _are_ (which they seem to be), then we will follow what they say. Heck, I know a lot of Canadians who aren't sure that what we're doing is the best thing, but we'll follow doctor's orders _anyway_ because why would you assume you know more than a doctor? Most of us aren't arrogant enough to think we know everything.






Spoiler


----------



## NotAYakk

ad_hoc said:


> New York State has completed 15 000 randomized antibody tests.
> 
> 12.3% came back positive. 12.3% of the population is 2.4 million. There have been 24 000 reported deaths. That makes a death rate of 1% though the CDC thinks the real death rate is likely 36 000 so maybe up to 1.5%.
> 
> I think that is about where people thought it would be. Then consider that overwhelming the healthcare system would result in a much higher death rate both of COVID 19 and other illnesses and we can see the disaster of the 'let it burn' strategy.
> 
> 50-70% of the population needs to be immune for herd immunity if I remember correctly so they still have a far way to go (and we don't actually know what sort of immunity being exposed will provide).
> 
> 57% of people surveyed were white and 7% of them came back with a positive test. That means that white people in New York State are contracting the virus at half the rate of non-white people.
> 
> So that's important to look into.



So NYC is ~20% infected.  And we are undercounting Covid-19 deaths by about 1/3 (so 50% more die than the official stats).  (NYC deaths * 1.5) / (NYC population * .2) is 1.2%.

Similar numbers show up in parts of Italy where they think almost everyone was infected -- about 1% death rate.

If herd immunity is at around 50% infected, that is 330 million / 2 * 1% or 1.65 million dead Americans.  Of which about a million actually get diagnosted with Covid-19.

At a lifecycle of 7 days and an R0 of 2, going from 1 million active infected to 165 million infected takes about two months.  Herd immunity is mostly zilch until you hit double-digit percents infected, so we can neglect that.

Herd immunity stops the disease from accelerating at around 1/(R0-1) immune.  But it only causes the disease spread to seriously shrink at around twice that.

Get R0 down to 1.2 and have 50% immune and you end up with 0.6, or each active case spreads to another 1.5 people; you'll note that if 25% of the population are actively infected at that point, that means the virus grows to about 80% infected (50%+25%*1.5) even though it is "stopped"; if your disease was growing super-fast as you approach 50% immune, herd immunity isn't usually enough to stop it; but if there are people who are avoiding infection, they get infected less, and herd immunity can make the more exposed people stop feeding it.

So a herd immunity plan is to make it spread, and when about the millionths US citizen dies you have hit about 33% infected.  At *that point*, restart some measures, this time boosted by herd immunity.  Dead keep piling up and approach 2 million, but decelerate as (a) piles of corpses make people take social distancing more seriously, (b) herd immunity makes half-assed measures more effective, as front-line workers get culled earlier.

And plenty of jobs for mass-grave diggers.  Got a backhoe license?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

How Hair Salons Will Be Transformed by the COVID-19 Pandemic
					

Facing financial strain and an uncertain future, hair-salon owners are working not just to reopen their doors as coronavirus restrictions ease but also to imagine a new future.




					www.yahoo.com
				






> But what could reemergence actually look like in this particular sect of personal care? Since March, Council, an Aveda expert and educator of more than 30 years, has been participating in advisory-board meetings to determine a plan. The primary rules for the Van Michael salons are as follows: Salon volume will be kept at a minimum of 50%, with stylists working at every other station at least six feet apart. Before entry, clients will wait outside and have temperatures checked. Once inside, all stylists will be wearing plastic shields and masks, while clients are required to wear masks. Belongings must be limited to a phone and form of payment—no handbags. Regarding services, there will be no blow-drying to avoid an airflow of germs, and that will also cut down on in-salon time.




If rules like this become the norm, prepare to see a LOT more black women protesting.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Also:








						While most of the US is starting to reopen, a new analysis shows that just 10 states have met even pretty basic standards for testing
					

Data from the Associated Press suggests that most states are not yet prepared to handle COVID-19 without a full lockdown.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

"A Trump administration model projects a rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths in the weeks ahead, up to about 3,000 daily deaths in the U.S. by June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times."









						Coronavirus model projects 134,000 deaths in US, nearly double its last estimate | CNN
					

An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House is now forecasting that 134,000 people will die of Covid-19 in the United States, nearly double its previous prediction.




					www.cnn.com
				






			https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6926-mayhhsbriefing/af7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf#page=1


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> See also the POTUS’ stretched but not totally off-base metaphor about us being “at war” with the coronavirus.
> 
> Imagine how hard it would have been to win WW1, WW2 or any other major conflict if the people- ESPECIALLY the military- _didn’t_ follow orders.
> 
> *****
> A picture I WON’T post from one of the protests contains a counterprotester displaying a hilarious slogan that violates ENWorld’s ToS.  The gist: if you think gov’t orders mandating the wearing of masks in public is unconstitutional, the pan so is ANY law forcing people to be clothed.  Ergo, protest naked.
> 
> Man had a point.




 Or PM invoked the war years. All in this together, team of 5 million,  picture of or equivalent of FDR. 

Things are opening up. Level 3 for a week. They sold 5 weeks worth of takeaway, wife run off her feet at her freight company. 

 Level 2 most things will be allowed to open with limits on capacity. Still not looking good for things like movie theaters, concerts etc. That might be next week. With cases falling to 0-3 per day and most people recovered it appears contained. 

 No gamestore. One was closing down anyway new one didn't open. 

  Economics wise they did a wage subsidy. They paid 500 sonething a week conditional on companies not laying off staff and paying them 80% of their normal pay. 

 They hired out hotel rooms for the homeless and cleared the streets and organized food deliveries. Government funded foodbanks.

 Also 0% loans for small business. A lot won't make it espicially tourism, hospitality. They're talking up domestic tourism but that's a placebo effect. 

 Also looking at expanding the bubble of our borders so Australia and Pacific Islands might be available.

Apparently pneumonia sample from December 27 has been analyzed in Europe was actually Covid. I thought locking down in early February was required but probably to late.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> "A Trump administration model projects a rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths in the weeks ahead, up to about 3,000 daily deaths in the U.S. by June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus model projects 134,000 deaths in US, nearly double its last estimate | CNN
> 
> 
> An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House is now forecasting that 134,000 people will die of Covid-19 in the United States, nearly double its previous prediction.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6926-mayhhsbriefing/af7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf#page=1




There it is.

Yeah, it is taken from this site:









						IHME | COVID-19 Projections
					

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.




					covid19.healthdata.org
				




The one just a couple weeks ago said there would be 60k deaths. I think their new estimate of 134k is around where the previous worst case scenario was.

Well at least they have updated to something which is more in line with what other models are saying.


----------



## NotAYakk

Models are based off of assumptions about behavior.  Change behavior, change the model results.


----------



## ad_hoc

NotAYakk said:


> Models are based off of assumptions about behavior.  Change behavior, change the model results.




Right but when a model is far off of every other model and that is the model that the government is using and advertising it is a bit worrisome I think.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ad_hoc said:


> Right but when a model is far off of every other model and that is the model that the government is using and advertising it is a bit worrisome I think.


----------



## ad_hoc

Well this is it...we have both hit rock bottom and maximum terror.









						Three family members charged in shooting death of security guard who told a customer to put on a face mask
					

Three family members have been charged in the killing of a security guard who told a customer at a Michigan Family Dollar store to wear a state-mandated face mask, officials said on Monday.




					www.cnn.com
				




Oh and this too apparently.









						Michigan man wipes nose on store worker after she asks him to wear a mask
					

A Michigan man was caught on video wiping his nose on a worker at a dollar store after she asked him to wear a mask.Click on Detroit obtained surveillance video of the incident, which occurred in a Dollar Tree store in Holly on Saturday at approximately 1:30 p.m."Here, I’ll use this as a mask,"...




					www.rawstory.com


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> Well this is it...we have both hit rock bottom and maximum terror.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Three family members charged in shooting death of security guard who told a customer to put on a face mask
> 
> 
> Three family members have been charged in the killing of a security guard who told a customer at a Michigan Family Dollar store to wear a state-mandated face mask, officials said on Monday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Oh and this too apparently.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Michigan man wipes nose on store worker after she asks him to wear a mask
> 
> 
> A Michigan man was caught on video wiping his nose on a worker at a dollar store after she asked him to wear a mask.Click on Detroit obtained surveillance video of the incident, which occurred in a Dollar Tree store in Holly on Saturday at approximately 1:30 p.m."Here, I’ll use this as a mask,"...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rawstory.com




 This is just the start. About a month ago the kicked in the door of a store and looted it in Mexico.

 When did USA last have large scale rioting? 1992?


----------



## Zardnaar

Second day in a row 0 new cases. 0 deaths. 

 NZ homeless conditions. Eliminated in about a week. 









						Coronavirus: Former homeless woman says motel has given her hope
					

It may not be the city's most luxurious accommodation, but for Kirsty Fensom the one-bedroom unit is “bliss”.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

More tales from the ER:


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

That is... brutal.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

"Recovery" is not "back to normal" either, I'm afraid:

Lingering and painful: the long and unclear road to coronavirus recovery


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

FitzTheRuke said:


> "Recovery" is not "back to normal" either, I'm afraid:
> 
> Lingering and painful: the long and unclear road to coronavirus recovery



Speaking of recovery, how are you, Fitz? 
Did you ever get a definitive diagnosis? And have you gotten over your illness, whatever it was?


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Speaking of recovery, how are you, Fitz?
> Did you ever get a definitive diagnosis? And have you gotten over your illness, whatever it was?




My experience was very similar like that article. I have been some-sort-of-sick for eight weeks now. Only the first 16 days included fever (day 10 might have been the worst, IIRC). By the time my Canadian province opened up testing to people who weren't hospitalized or connected to known cases, I tested negative. (That was two weeks ago, or six weeks after I first had a fever). 

I'm waiting for them to open up antibody testing to find out if the first 16 day illness was covid or not. Seems likely - if it wasn't then I don't know what it was. At this point, I'm basically just clearing my throat on a regular basis (not quite coughig) clearing some goo. I have a sore chest, but my overall lung capacity doesn't seem too bad. I have headaches now-and-then. Every morning I think I might be better, but most evenings I feel worse again. I think There might be an overall trend toward getting better, but it's hard to tell.  I speak to my doctor by phone regularly. 

I'm pretty sick of being sick, if you'll forgive the bad joke.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

FitzTheRuke said:


> My experience was very similar like that article. I have been some-sort-of-sick for eight weeks now. Only the first 16 days included fever (day 10 might have been the worst, IIRC). By the time my Canadian province opened up testing to people who weren't hospitalized or connected to known cases, I tested negative. (That was two weeks ago, or six weeks after I first had a fever).
> 
> I'm waiting for them to open up antibody testing to find out if the first 16 day illness was covid or not. Seems likely - if it wasn't then I don't know what it was. At this point, I'm basically just clearing my throat on a regular basis (not quite coughig) clearing some goo. I have a sore chest, but my overall lung capacity doesn't seem too bad. I have headaches now-and-then. Every morning I think I might be better, but most evenings I feel worse again. I think There might be an overall trend toward getting better, but it's hard to tell.  I speak to my doctor by phone regularly.
> 
> I'm pretty sick of being sick, if you'll forgive the bad joke.



Ugh, _still_ sick? That's rough, man... Yeah, it certainly sounds similar to what's in that article.  It's a nasty bug by all accounts.  I can well imagine you're 'sick of being sick.' 
Be well!


----------



## Hussar

Well, the PM here in Japan just extended the Stay at Home orders for another month.  Good on him

And, in other news, they are now very seriously talking about changing the Japanese school year to match the rest of the world and start in September.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Hussar said:


> And, in other news, they are now very seriously talking about changing the Japanese school year to match the rest of the world and start in September.




I was wondering where in Japan you were, and I looked at your profile and thought "Fukuoka... why does that sound familiar?" It's because I was in Kitakyushu a year-and-a-half ago. When I go to Japan, I don't normally get too far from Tokyo. 

All of this is, of course, totally off-topic - except to say, "I guess I won't be going back there anytime soon."

... Which is sad, really. I'm overdue.

(I'd also intended to return to New York someday soon, and to visit New Zealand for the first time.)

I think international travel might be out for awhile. Like a year, at least. Not that I would ever have been able to  do anywhere near _all_ of that in a single year, but still... between the pandemic and the draining of all my potential travel-money - it looks like _that's_ all going by the way-side for some time.


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> I was wondering where in Japan you were, and I looked at your profile and thought "Fukuoka... why does that sound familiar?" It's because I was in Kitakyushu a year-and-a-half ago. When I go to Japan, I don't normally get too far from Tokyo.
> 
> All of this is, of course, totally off-topic - except to say, "I guess I won't be going back there anytime soon."
> 
> ... Which is sad, really. I'm overdue.
> 
> (I'd also intended to return to New York someday soon, and to visit New Zealand for the first time.)
> 
> I think international travel might be out for awhile. Like a year, at least. Not that I would ever have been able to  do anywhere near _all_ of that in a single year, but still... between the pandemic and the draining of all my potential travel-money - it looks like _that's_ all going by the way-side for some time.




We're closed up until further notice. There's still theoretically possible to get here. But into the cage you go.

Covid-19: What it's like inside managed isolation


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Silver lining:

1) maybe the near catastrophic impact of .covid-19 will finally convince the (surviving) cruise lines to take public health issues more seriously.

2) maybe surviving airlines will _*remove*_ some seats, making air travel safer AND more comfortable simultaneously.


----------



## Azzy

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Silver lining:
> 
> 1) maybe the near catastrophic impact of .covid-19 will finally convince the (surviving) cruise lines to take public health issues more seriously.
> 
> 2) maybe surviving airlines will _*remove*_ some seats, making air travel safer AND more comfortable simultaneously.



I never took you for an optimist.


----------



## Older Beholder

On a positive note,

I contacted a friend that I grew up with that now lives in Tokyo just to see how he was going (something I've been doing a lot of in the past 2 months).

Turns out that his D&D group had moved online because of isolation, and he invited me to join.
Have played the past 3 Sunday nights and it's one of the few things I look forward to these days.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ex-GOP Lawmaker Joe Walsh Issues Chilling Warning To Fox News Viewers
					

Laura Ingraham told her viewers there was "no real scientific basis" to support social distancing efforts.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Azzy said:


> I never took you for an optimist.



I’m a SPECULATIVE optimist.

(I will say, though, that I predicted Spirit Air would do exactly that on certain routes in an MBA class final paper a few years ago...turned in 30 minutes before they made a public announcement stating exactly that.  Got an A.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Ex-GOP Lawmaker Joe Walsh Issues Chilling Warning To Fox News Viewers
> 
> 
> Laura Ingraham told her viewers there was "no real scientific basis" to support social distancing efforts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




 Evidence exhibit 27 class action lawsuit?


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m a SPECULATIVE optimist.
> 
> (I will say, though, that I predicted Spirit Air would do exactly that on certain routes in an MBA class final paper a few years ago...turned in 30 minutes before they made a public announcement stating exactly that.  Got an A.)




 Cynic is easier.


----------



## Azzy

ModernApathy said:


> On a positive note,
> 
> I contacted a friend that I grew up with that now lives in Tokyo just to see how he was going (something I've been doing a lot of in the past 2 months).
> 
> Turns out that his D&D group had moved online because of isolation, and he invited me to join.
> Have played the past 3 Sunday nights and it's one of the few things I look forward to these days.



Nice. In addition to playing D&D weekly, I've also been playing Neverwinter with a group of friends over the last month. I neverplayed an MMO before this.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hear me out: if the rules for passenger air travel demand the companies fly at partial capacity, the main thing those empty seats are doing is burning more fuel.  Present times excluded, fuel costs are one of the major costs for airlines.

In contrast, taking some seats out saves the airlines from carrying dead weight, letting them carry more _cargo.  _It also lets hem sell the new, improved, more civilixe way to fly, with images of coach passengers experiencing actual leg room...

So they trade dead weight for paid weight, while simultaneously seeming to give us what we’ve been asking for Gor decades.

Yes, such a reconfiguration costs money.  In the short term.  Long term, it could prove to be a competitive advantage.

_Especially_ if the regulation about passenger capacity need to be in place long term.


----------



## Older Beholder

Azzy said:


> Nice. In addition to playing D&D weekly, I've also been playing Neverwinter with a group of friends over the last month. I neverplayed an MMO before this.




That's great. It's good to have something to look forward to at the moment.
I never much got into MMO's, but give me a few more months locked inside and you never know 

As someone that usually DM's just getting to play anything was a win for me.
In the game I joined I'm playing a Yuan-Ti warlock, which means I get to tick off another race I've always wanted to play.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Hear me out: if the rules for passenger air travel demand the companies fly at partial capacity, the main thing those empty seats are doing is burning more fuel.  Present times excluded, fuel costs are one of the major costs for airlines.
> 
> TaIn contrast, taking some seats out saves the airlines from carrying dead weight, letting them carry more _cargo.  _It also lets hem sell the new, improved, more civilixe way to fly, with images of coach passengers experiencing actual leg room...
> 
> So they trade dead weight for paid weight, while simultaneously seeming to give us what we’ve been asking for Gor decades.
> 
> Yes, such a reconfiguration costs money.  In the short term.  Long term, it could prove to be a competitive advantage.
> 
> _Especially_ if the regulation about passenger capacity need to be in place long term.




Prices will go up similar to 70s.

Days off mass cheap air travel over for the short term. Even if everything was open lack of confidence due to Covid, personal finances and some people just won't have the money.

 Don't think my eastern European booze cruise is gonna be happening.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Prices will go up similar to 70s.
> 
> Days off mass cheap air travel over for the short term. Even if everything was open lack of confidence due to Covid, personal finances and some people just won't have the money.
> 
> Don't think my eastern European booze cruise is gonna be happening.



Certainly prices will rise...if they can.  With the global economy the way it is, too big of a price hike could result in the continuing lack of passengers.

in a case like this, the only party that can really manipulate a supply/demand curve would be the airlines.  If they can’t lower their prices enough to fly at the new capacity rules, demand for seats simply won’t rise.  The airlines will have to find new streams of revenue (like cargo) and/or reduce costs (shave plane mass).


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Certainly prices will rise...if they can.  With the global economy the way it is, too big of a price hike could result in the continuing lack of passengers.
> 
> in a case like this, the only party that can really manipulate a supply/demand curve would be the airlines.  If they can’t lower their prices enough to fly at the new capacity rules, demand for seats simply won’t rise.  The airlines will have to find new streams of revenue (like cargo) and/or reduce costs (shave plane mass).




Nah they can operate for the rich. Wasn't that long ago airlines were mostly for the rich.

Ours is looking at becoming domestic only with a government bail out.

 Fuel will be cheap.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Nah they can operate for the rich. Wasn't that long ago airlines were mostly for the rich.
> 
> Ours is looking at becoming domestic only with a government bail out.
> 
> Fuel will be cheap.



You're forgetting part of the equation.  Remember, they’re used to flying first class.

The rich aren’t going to fly in the cramped confines of coach.  If airlines want to cater to the wealthy- at least, those who don’t already have private aircraft- they will have to cater to their expectations.  That means the companies would have yank and upgrade seats anyway.


----------



## Hussar

FitzTheRuke said:


> I was wondering where in Japan you were, and I looked at your profile and thought "Fukuoka... why does that sound familiar?" It's because I was in Kitakyushu a year-and-a-half ago. When I go to Japan, I don't normally get too far from Tokyo.
> 
> All of this is, of course, totally off-topic - except to say, "I guess I won't be going back there anytime soon."
> 
> ... Which is sad, really. I'm overdue.
> 
> (I'd also intended to return to New York someday soon, and to visit New Zealand for the first time.)
> 
> I think international travel might be out for awhile. Like a year, at least. Not that I would ever have been able to  do anywhere near _all_ of that in a single year, but still... between the pandemic and the draining of all my potential travel-money - it looks like _that's_ all going by the way-side for some time.




To be perfectly honest, I am a short distance outside of Kitakyushu.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> You're forgetting part of the equation.  Remember, they’re used to flying first class.
> 
> The rich aren’t going to fly in the cramped confines of coach.  If airlines want to cater to the wealthy- at least, those who don’t already have private aircraft- they will have to cater to their expectations.  That means the companies would have yank and upgrade seats anyway.




 Yeah that's what I mean it will mostly be first class. 

 Economy might still exist, Less flights I guess and it will cost more.


----------



## NotAYakk

A huge percent of airplane travel costs is fuel.  Fuel is now zero in price.

Another huge cost is airplanes.  They have so many some airlines are going to go bankrupt and there are going to be dirt cheap airplanes for sale.

So flight costs are now labour, which there is also a surplus of, plus airport fees, taxes and overhead.

There are _so many crazy crazy_ forces pushing prices around it isn't funny.  Inflationary, deflationary, etc.  You can make a case for nearly any price direction; and you could be right, even if your argument isn't actually why it happened.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> A huge percent of airplane travel costs is fuel.  Fuel is now zero in price.
> 
> Another huge cost is airplanes.  They have so many some airlines are going to go bankrupt and there are going to be dirt cheap airplanes for sale.
> 
> So flight costs are now labour, which there is also a surplus of, plus airport fees, taxes and overhead.
> 
> There are _so many crazy crazy_ forces pushing prices around it isn't funny.  Inflationary, deflationary, etc.  You can make a case for nearly any price direction; and you could be right, even if your argument isn't actually why it happened.




You can make some good guesses.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> You can make some good guesses.



I have two.

Prices go up.
Prices go down.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Cynic is easier.




Yeah, but cynicism generally creates self-fulfilling prophecy.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> A huge percent of airplane travel costs is fuel.  Fuel is now zero in price.




That... does not seem to be true.  Maybe low oil prices have not yet filtered into the aviation fuel business, or low availability of workers under current conditions has increased prices?

In 2015, it appears to be that a gallon of A1 jet fuel apparently cost about $1.70.  Today, it costs about $4.50 per gallon.


----------



## Olrox17

Umbran said:


> That... does not seem to be true.  Maybe low oil prices have not yet filtered into the aviation fuel business, or low availability of workers under current conditions has increased prices?
> 
> In 2015, it appears to be that a gallon of A1 jet fuel apparently cost about $1.70.  Today, it costs about $4.50 per gallon.



I don't know where you got those figures. I found this table:





Price seems to be at 15-years low.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Certainly prices will rise...if they can.  With the global economy the way it is, too big of a price hike could result in the continuing lack of passengers.
> 
> in a case like this, the only party that can really manipulate a supply/demand curve would be the airlines.  If they can’t lower their prices enough to fly at the new capacity rules, demand for seats simply won’t rise.  The airlines will have to find new streams of revenue (like cargo) and/or reduce costs (shave plane mass).



Looks like the business plan is to keep all the seats, and make pasengers pay for the luxury of social distancing:









						Frontier Airlines will let passengers keep their distance—for a fee
					

Securing a seat with no neighbor will come with an extra cost.




					fortune.com


----------



## Olrox17

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Looks like the business plan is to keep all the seats, and make pasengers pay for the luxury of social distancing:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Frontier Airlines will let passengers keep their distance—for a fee
> 
> 
> Securing a seat with no neighbor will come with an extra cost.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> fortune.com



If social distancing becomes a luxury that people have to pay for, the virus will spread like wildfire. Social distancing must be mandatory, not premium.


----------



## MoonSong

Back in March I posted this:


MoonSong said:


> While everybody is locking down and canceling gatherings of people over as little as 5, this happens in the land of the nopal:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mexico Holds Big Music Festival Despite Coronavirus Concerns
> 
> 
> The coronavirus pandemic may have led authorities around the globe to cancel concerts and sporting events, and even shut down daily activities in some places
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnewyork.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GUNS N' ROSES Performs At Mexico City's VIVE LATINO Festival Despite Coronavirus Concerns
> 
> 
> GUNS N' ROSES performed at Mexico City's massive annual music festival Vive Latino Saturday night (March 14) despite thousands of people calling for the event to be canceled in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. At least a dozen of other artists had pulled out of the festival by Saturday...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.blabbermouth.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I can't believe how irresponsible this was, local twitter is using #muerelatino to denounce this.



As I write this, the same complex used to hold this festival -consisting of a relgamentary F1 track and two stadiums- is now being converted into a hospital for Covid patients. Oh and some of the security guards that worked in that event have since developed symptoms and died. No word on some of the people who attended it, but no doubt contagions happened during that festival.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Looks like the business plan is to keep all the seats, and make pasengers pay for the luxury of social distancing:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Frontier Airlines will let passengers keep their distance—for a fee
> 
> 
> Securing a seat with no neighbor will come with an extra cost.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> fortune.com



That probably won’t last, for the reason @Olrox17 stated.


----------



## Umbran

Olrox17 said:


> I don't know where you got those figures.




Well, I now cannot find the page I was looking at when I wrote, so, consider the assertion withdrawn.


----------



## Umbran

Olrox17 said:


> If social distancing becomes a luxury that people have to pay for, the virus will spread like wildfire. Social distancing must be mandatory, not premium.




It isn't like just blocking the middle seat is any use.  If you are going to be sitting there for several hours, the difference between adjacent and 2 feet away isn't going to matter much, in terms of transmission.

And, since asymptomatic transmission is a thing, the temperature checks and asking folks if they have had symptoms (a question they're just going to lie about anyway), are security theater.


----------



## Olrox17

Umbran said:


> It isn't like just blocking the middle seat is any use.  If you are going to be sitting there for several hours, the difference between adjacent and 2 feet away isn't going to matter much, in terms of transmission.
> 
> And, since asymptomatic transmission is a thing, the temperature checks and asking folks if they have had symptoms (a question they're just going to lie about anyway), are security theater.



2 feet probably isn't enough, indeed. 3-4 feet, plus mandatory facemasks, might work.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Well POOP!








						Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus could be more contagious than original
					

A mutation in the novel coronavirus has led to a new strain viewed as more contagious than the virus that emerged from China, according to a new study.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

Olrox17 said:


> 2 feet probably isn't enough, indeed. 3-4 feet, plus mandatory facemasks, might work.




There is a reason why the recommendation for distance in public places is _six feet_.


----------



## Azzy

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Looks like the business plan is to keep all the seats, and make pasengers pay for the luxury of social distancing:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Frontier Airlines will let passengers keep their distance—for a fee
> 
> 
> Securing a seat with no neighbor will come with an extra cost.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> fortune.com



Well, that's about stupid.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Azzy said:


> Well, that's about stupid.



Yep... but not really surprising.


----------



## Zardnaar

Azzy said:


> Well, that's about stupid.




 Not really has to be viable.

Wasn't that long ago air travel was a luxury for the rich or something you would save for. 

 Wife asked me this last night.

 "Can the USA even eliminate Covid". 

 Probably not. 

 I have a sane government here and we got shown three curves. Containment, herd plan, and what most countries are doing. 

 That plan which is half assed isolation drags it out to the end if the year around October. That's wave one it's unknown if you get multiple waves. 

 Personally I don't think lockdowns viable for more than 2-3 months. Because of the economy. 

 By that I don't mean money is more valuable than humans but disruptions to the food supply. Most people can't afford to not work for two-3 months. We're already seeing food shortages, food lines in USA. 

 Covids killed 250k people. Starvation due to Covids disruption is 30 million people. 

 Even if USA locked down now properly and you could enforce it it's still going to take at least 3 months from now to drive the numbers down to around 0. Took 49 days here and we caught it early/behind the cycle and we've had two days of 0 cases I expect we will get more. 

 They shut down everything to do it. I can't see America doing no Walmart, no Amazon, no takeaways, no deliveries. 

 We're also in uncharted waters here. We've got 1929 to look at and the Spanish Flu but the world is a very different place now. Cars and planes existed but they weren't like now. Cars were luxury item for rich, airlines were just getting started. 

 Pandemics seem to last a year or two in a particular area. By the time they develop a vaccine it may have burned itself out.

Things are falling apart faster than 1929 though. There was a smaller depression 1929-20 that kinda primed the pump for 1929 but I suppose you could compare that with the GFC to now I suppose.


----------



## Deset Gled

Zardnaar said:


> Nah they can operate for the rich. Wasn't that long ago airlines were mostly for the rich.




No, they currently, and AFAIK pretty much always have, operate for business travel.  I believe the current statistic is that something like 75% of the airlines profit is from business travel (the percent of business flyers is significantly lower).  Think about it: who do you think actually pays for all those higher fares for last minute travel or shells out $10 for two hours of wi-fi?  The answer is business travelers whose bills are footed by the company.

So the real questions here are: 1) How much money is your company willing to pay to get you from point A to point B?  And 2) How much of a risk is your employer willing to take of you getting COVID and getting a workman's comp claim because of it?

I think most of the latter question is still working it's way through the system.  Questions of whether you can get workman's comp for getting COVID19, how you prove you got it on the job, etc, are still being worked out.


----------



## Zardnaar

Deset Gled said:


> No, they currently, and AFAIK pretty much always have, operate for business travel.  I believe the current statistic is that something like 75% of the airlines profit is from business travel (the percent of business flyers is significantly lower).  Think about it: who do you think actually pays for all those higher fares for last minute travel or shells out $10 for two hours of wi-fi?  The answer is business travelers whose bills are footed by the company.
> 
> So the real questions here are: 1) How much money is your company willing to pay to get you from point A to point B?  And 2) How much of a risk is your employer willing to take of you getting COVID and getting a workman's comp claim because of it?
> 
> I think most of the latter question is still working it's way through the system.  Questions of whether you can get workman's comp for getting COVID19, how you prove you got it on the job, etc, are still being worked out.




 I would put business types in "the rich" category. Company pays the bill and it's tax deductible. 

 There will be less demand short term even if they're allowed to open.

 They're gonna be bleeding money, asking for government bail outs, and a few will go under.


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> I would put business types in "the rich" category. Company pays the bill and it's tax deductible.
> 
> There will be less demand short term even if they're allowed to open.
> 
> They're gonna be bleeding money, asking for government bail outs, and a few will go under.




Ummm... I travel all the time for work and I am by no means "the rich".


----------



## Deset Gled

Zardnaar said:


> I would put business types in "the rich" category. Company pays the bill and it's tax deductible.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Things look like they’re getting...awww _dammit._








						Ammon Bundy Blames Jews For The Holocaust At Idaho Anti-Lockdown Rally
					

The militiaman’s comments, one civil rights activist said, "crossed a moral line."




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Istbor said:


> Ummm... I travel all the time for work and I am by no means "the rich".




 Yes right now that's because air travel is cheap. If it goes back to 1960's or 70s style it won't be as cheap. 
 In real terms I think it's something like half the price iirc. 

That's what I mean. It's not going to be completely unaffordable but you'll think twice about that holiday. Assuming you have a job. 

 They might be able to hold prices down via government bailouts. 

 Cost of oil will be cheap but the price of turning it into gas or jet fuel means the price won't be dirt cheap.

 My brothers a pilot on the 4 engines. His jobs gone and he's not really expecting it back in the next year or two. 

There was a pilot shortage shirt term that's been solved.


----------



## ad_hoc

Deset Gled said:


> View attachment 121738




Non-sequitur to the discussion at hand but if someone wants a laugh and hasn't seen this is, it's pretty good.

Seinfeld plays D&D:



			https://external-preview.redd.it/QqmtHK7WxpcdfA-HfZT9dF9qHAbrOzOS5rFRb-cjb-w.jpg?auto=webp&s=9657347ea66708c6bcf9012214d5fbbcc617bb4f


----------



## Deset Gled

Zardnaar said:


> Yes right now that's because air travel is cheap. If it goes back to 1960's or 70s style it won't be as cheap.
> In real terms I think it's something like half the price iirc.
> 
> That's what I mean. It's not going to be completely unaffordable but you'll think twice about that holiday. Assuming you have a job.
> 
> They might be able to hold prices down via government bailouts.
> 
> Cost of oil will be cheap but the price of turning it into gas or jet fuel means the price won't be dirt cheap.
> 
> My brothers a pilot on the 4 engines. His jobs gone and he's not really expecting it back in the next year or two.
> 
> There was a pilot shortage shirt term that's been solved.




Honestly, none of this makes any sense to me.

The pricing of airfare before the 1970s in the US was completely different because pricing was strictly regulated by the government.  It was a pricing scheme that was designed (and actually worked) to keep pricing down when air travel was new, but basically failed as the industry matured.  No one, not even those discussing a bailout, is talking about a return to the old pricing regulations.

I already think twice about all holidays.  Deciding whether I fly or drive somewhere is based on looking at airfare, and determining if it's worth it vs. driving (or not going at all).

Government bailouts don't hold prices down, they keep companies afloat in times of extreme debt/duress.  If there's no bailout they won't necesarily increase prices, they'll figure out a way to become financially stable or fold (or partially fold, or merge, etc).  Blindly increasing prices in no way guarantees financial stability.

Cost of oil is not what we're discussing at all.

The pilot shortage (in the US at least) has not been short term problem.  It's also not really a shortage so much as it is a combination of training and union issues.  It's also a non-sequitor.  Pilots being out of work now could even make airfare cheaper in the future, as more pilots are available and can't demand higher wages due to a surplus of available workers.


----------



## Zardnaar

Deset Gled said:


> Honestly, none of this makes any sense to me.
> 
> The pricing of airfare before the 1970s in the US was completely different because pricing was strictly regulated by the government.  It was a pricing scheme that was designed (and actually worked) to keep pricing down when air travel was new, but basically failed as the industry matured.  No one, not even those discussing a bailout, is talking about a return to the old pricing regulations.
> 
> I already think twice about all holidays.  Deciding whether I fly or drive somewhere is based on looking at airfare, and determining if it's worth it vs. driving (or not going at all).
> 
> Government bailouts don't hold prices down, they keep companies afloat in times of extreme debt/duress.  If there's no bailout they won't necesarily increase prices, they'll figure out a way to become financially stable or fold (or partially fold, or merge, etc).  Blindly increasing prices in no way guarantees financial stability.
> 
> Cost of oil is not what we're discussing at all.
> 
> The pilot shortage (in the US at least) has not been short term problem.  It's also not really a shortage so much as it is a combination of training and union issues.  It's also a non-sequitor.  If anything, pilots being out of work now will make airfare cheaper in the future, as more pilots are available and can't demand higher wages due to a surplus of available workers.




 The demands not going to be there. Prices will have to go up espicially if they have to carry less people. 

 If they don't have to run at a profit and the can run at a loss and burn government money prices might stay the same. 

 Generally inflation should be low along with interest rates. (1929). 

 If the governments let money printer go brrrr to much though you'll have inflation like 1919/20. 

 I don't think we're gonna have the great depression 2.0 but we're mostly like to have a depression. Hell it's already started.

 Hasn't really started for most people and a few are blindly optimistic. 

 Our expectations are 3 waves of job losses (wave 1 now), with double digit unemployment. Recovery seating 2021/22. 

 Borders are closed for the forseeable future.  We won't be the only ones.


----------



## Istbor

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Things look like they’re getting...awww _dammit._
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ammon Bundy Blames Jews For The Holocaust At Idaho Anti-Lockdown Rally
> 
> 
> The militiaman’s comments, one civil rights activist said, "crossed a moral line."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




Lol what are you today, the doom and gloom patrol? 
First we have a more dangerous strain that may have been discovered, and a racist potato.


----------



## Zardnaar

Istbor said:


> Lol what are you today, the doom and gloom patrol?
> First we have a more dangerous strain that may have been discovered, and a racist potato.




 Realistic.

 I got called doom and gloom when I predicted 9/11 casualties every 1-3 days for a month or two. And yet here we are. 

 I can give you some doom and gloom possibilities if you want.


----------



## Deset Gled

Zardnaar said:


> The demands not going to be there. Prices will have to go up espicially if they have to carry less people.




This is generally correct.  However, what I originally started by pointing out, is that most of that demand is business travel.  You seem to have it in your head that most air travel is for vacations, or by rich people.  It isn't.  If you want to understand what demand there will be for airfare in the future, you need to look at the business needs for it, and what businesses are willing to pay.  Furthermore, businesses are not rich, and travel costs are not a tax deduction.



> Generally inflation should be low along with interest rates. (1929).
> 
> If the governments let money printer go brrrr to much though you'll have inflation like 1919/20.




While I don't necessarily disagree with these statements per se, they have as much context to me as your infatuation with 1970s prices, the cost of fuel, and how many engines are on your brother's plane.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Istbor said:


> Lol what are you today, the doom and gloom patrol?
> First we have a more dangerous strain that may have been discovered, and a racist potato.



What I am is a doctor’s son living in a state opening itself up at a pace faster than the federal guidelines suggest.  So I’m closely monitoring what’s going on here and in similar regions to figure out whet it will be saf*er *to normalize activities.

Right now, I look around, and I can’t help but think of this:


----------



## Zardnaar

Deset Gled said:


> This is generally correct.  However, what I originally started by pointing out, is that most of that demand is business travel.  You seem to have it in your head that most air travel is for vacations, or by rich people.  It isn't.  If you want to understand what demand there will be for airfare in the future, you need to look at the business needs for it, and what businesses are willing to pay.  Furthermore, businesses are not rich, and travel costs are not a tax deduction.
> 
> 
> 
> While I don't necessarily disagree with these statements per se, they have as much context to me as your infatuation with 1970s prices, the cost of fuel, and how many engines are on your brother's plane.




 Perspective. You've ready got people lining up for food and 30 million unemployed. 

 If you can afford an airfare in a depression you're "rich" even if you're not literally a 1% and rolling around in cash. 

 It's also easy to say lockdown when you can stock up on food, work from home and/or take 2-3 months off work. 

 Some countries didn't make that choice. Some countries can't make that choice.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> There is a reason why the recommendation for distance in public places is _six feet_.



Yep!








						Coronavirus: Risk of spread 'up to 30 times higher' at one metre away from infected person rather than two
					

Sir Patrick Vallance emphasised the importance of abiding by the distancing guidelines set out by supermarkets and other essential shops during lockdown.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Look for the helpers!








						This comedian started buying lunch for her sister's ICU unit — now she's feeding thousands on the frontlines
					

Comedian Katie Finn wanted to buy lunch for her sister, an ICU nurse in NYC treating coronavirus patients. Now she's feeding thousands on the frontlines.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> Realistic.
> 
> I got called doom and gloom when I predicted 9/11 casualties every 1-3 days for a month or two. And yet here we are.
> 
> I can give you some doom and gloom possibilities if you want.



Oh me oh me!

So let's play with herd immunity. 0.5% of USA with, say, half of the deaths happening in one month (a peak).

330/200 is 1.6 million, so 800k dead in a month, 200k per week, or 30,000 dead per day.

Now it could get worse.

Pull back social distancing, and every city becomes NYC 2x.  (NYC hit 20%; we are talking 50%-80%+ infection for herd immunity).

On the plus side, only 20k of those 30k will be diagnosed as covid-19 deaths; the rest will die before being diagnosed.

Now the USA has 3 million deaths/year, or about 10,000 per day.  So in the height of the slaughter, 4x the typical deaths will ocdur, and half of all deaths will be attributed to Covid-19.

Yes, that is a 9/11 every morning, another at lunch, another every afternoon, another at dusk, another after dinner, another at bedtime, another at midnight, another when you roll over in bed and half awake up, another when you stumble into the bathroom to pee, another when you wake up.

Then a couple more, or heck a half dozen, for good measure.

Every day for a month.

Gloomy enough yet?

If we assume they still don't lock down in response to that, you hit herd immunity around 90% infection.  That is about 3 million dead in the USA, give or take.

And this happens everywhere that doesn't do NZ or SK style extinguishing.

25-70 million dead worldwide.

And all of this assumes recovered people are (a) fine, (b) immune.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> Oh me oh me!
> 
> So let's play with herd immunity. 0.5% of USA with, say, half of the deaths happening in one month (a peak).
> 
> 330/200 is 1.6 million, so 800k dead in a month, 200k per week, or 30,000 dead per day.
> 
> Now it could get worse.
> 
> Pull back social distancing, and every city becomes NYC 2x.  (NYC hit 20%; we are talking 50%-80%+ infection for herd immunity).
> 
> On the plus side, only 20k of those 30k will be diagnosed as covid-19 deaths; the rest will die before being diagnosed.
> 
> Now the USA has 3 million deaths/year, or about 10,000 per day.  So in the height of the slaughter, 4x the typical deaths will ocdur, and half of all deaths will be attributed to Covid-19.
> 
> Yes, that is a 9/11 every morning, another at lunch, another every afternoon, another at dusk, another after dinner, another at bedtime, another at midnight, another when you roll over in bed and half awake up, another when you stumble into the bathroom to pee, another when you wake up.
> 
> Then a couple more, or heck a half dozen, for good measure.
> 
> Every day for a month.
> 
> Gloomy enough yet?
> 
> If we assume they still don't lock down in response to that, you hit herd immunity around 90% infection.  That is about 3 million dead in the USA, give or take.
> 
> And this happens everywhere that doesn't do NZ or SK style extinguishing.
> 
> 25-70 million dead worldwide.
> 
> And all of this assumes recovered people are (a) fine, (b) immune.




 8 billion people almost on the planet. 

 That numbers still less than the amount starving to death just in the next year or so.

 A 5-10 year depression will probably kill more than that. 

 In effect a lockdown that saves lives in the west kills more people elsewhere. Everything breaks, aid stops flowing, food rots in the ground. We're already seeing this now.

We're playing with numbers but no matter how bad Covid ends up being the disruption will likely kill more people.


----------



## tomBitonti

Umbran said:


> There is a reason why the recommendation for distance in public places is _six feet_.




The suspension duration seems very under-emphasized.  A six foot separation hardly matters if we are walking through recently vacated locations before a cloud has dissipated.  And, do the droplets ever drop out of the air, or are they merely attenuated?

Also, even a very slow air movement would seem to have huge effects.  Distance travelled and dispersion would both be hugely effected.

Plus, do we have a good model yet of the effectiveness of dispersion?  That is, a measure of whether a person gets infected (plus how seriously they are infected, if that matters), based on the concentration of the virus bearing droplets?

This is all sounding like the danger of radiation, for which there is no non-harmful minimum.  There might be no effective prevention of transmission (outside of highly rated masks).  There may be only incrementally better reductions of risk.  One would want to reduce interaction distance and spread factors (masks, gloves), as well as the number of interactions, and would want early detection of infectious individuals.

Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## NotAYakk

No known superspreader event involved anything except ballistic droplets.

This doesn't mean that suspended droplets or surface contact cannot spread it.  But when someone infects dozens or hundreds of people, it was because they spoke/sung/yelled and the target was in front of them and there wasn't an opposing wind (or they where directly downwind).

This is a probability game.  It is likely large balistic droplets are the main source of transmission.  Most spread is from the asymptomatic.  Even crappy masks massively reduce ballistic droplets.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Masks definitely help the infected to not spread it. They are slightly less effective in protecting a victim, but still better than nothing. When both the infected and the not wear masks, it absolutely helps. Don't believe the very strange anti-mask propaganda and think about it: Would doctors and nurses wear masks if they didn't help? No, of course they wouldn't.  It's not 100%, but what in life is?


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

NotAYakk said:


> Even crappy masks massively reduce ballistic droplets.



Not all crappy masks...


Spoiler







Your browser is not able to display this video.


----------



## ad_hoc

This article presents a compelling argument for using homemade cloth masks.

It is true that there isn't enough data to know their effectiveness (or lack thereof) but there is very little cost to wearing them.

This isn't like taking a medication with potentially severe side effects.

Even if cloth masks worn on a societal level were to cause as little as a 10% drop in infection rate that would be huge.



			https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1435.full.pdf


----------



## Zardnaar

Most people here don't use masks not because we're idiots but because you can't buy them. 

 Can't really make them either unless you had the materials on hand as supermarkets sold out of basic things. I tied a t shirt around my face but have only gone to the supermarket 3 times in 7 weeks. 

 Online sales not always an option as they were closed as well early on. If you don't have the right card that's not an option either and the banks are closed. 

 Things are slowly going back to normal. Hand sanitizer turned up in the supermarket today apparently. 

 One more death, two new cases. Last couple of days were 0. 

Wouldn't be surprised to see numbers trend upwards again if we shift to level 2 next week. Death was same rest home as most of the others.

 Found some masks eventually grand total of 5. I don't use them outside but saving them. Don't go anywhere is just easier.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Not all crappy masks...
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 121743



Saw one of a woman in a restaurant who had cut a slit in hers where it covered the mouth, so she could eat.  Like nobody would notice the slit after the gravy residue framed it.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Saw one of a woman in a restaurant who had cut a slit in hers where it covered the mouth, so she could eat.  Like nobody would notice the slit after the gravy residue framed it.



Classic example of human stupidity. Cutting a hole in a mask defeats the purpose of a mask.


----------



## Azzy

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Classic example of human stupidity. Cutting a hole in a mask defeats the purpose of a mask.



Intelligence and Wisdom were their dump stats.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

What makes it worse is that the protests are reopening the country before we even reached the peak of cases and will in the long term make us have to quarantine longer. 
Stay home when the government tells you to stay home. They're advised by professionals, and know better than you do. 
(This pandemic is the perfect reason on why we shouldn't politicize pandemics. It leads to issues with getting help where we need it, and makes people die in a preventable manner.)


----------



## ccs

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Stay home when the government tells you to stay home. They're advised by professionals, and know better than you do.




You're going to have to roll a lot higher on that persuasion check to convince me that the US Govt. (current federal lv at least) knows better than I do.


----------



## Imaculata

ccs said:


> You're going to have to roll a lot higher on that persuasion check to convince me that the US Govt. (current federal lv at least) knows better than I do.




Pretty much this. Doubt everything this government claims, and use your common sense first and fore most. Because it seems painfully obvious that saving lives is not the top priority of this government.


----------



## Hussar

ccs said:


> You're going to have to roll a lot higher on that persuasion check to convince me that the US Govt. (current federal lv at least) knows better than I do.




See, this, this right here, is a MAJOR source of the problem.  Look at countries that are doing ok.  Japan, NZ, Canada seems to be over the hump, etc.  Every one of these countries don't seem to have this giant, "No GUMMINT GONNA TELL ME WHAT TO DO!" approach.  Nor, do they have these very large anti-science groups who have used religion for the past couple of decades as the beat stick for forcing their agendas.  

I'm still frankly baffled why Americans have always seemed to have had this giant hate on for their governments.  You are the richest nation in the world and have been so for over a century.  You haven't had a war on your own soil for over a century.  You lead the world in so many areas.

But, for some reason, everyone wants to blame the government for incompetency.   You don't get to be number one in the world if your government is incompetent.  It always completely baffles me.


----------



## Imaculata

Hussar said:


> But, for some reason, everyone wants to blame the government for incompetency.   You don't get to be number one in the world if your government is incompetent.  It always completely baffles me.




To be fair, how competent or incompetent the US government is, depends wildly on who is currently  in office. US mistrust in their own government is not always unjustified. Right now they are stuck with a president that denies science and the pandemic. I think that is fair reason to not trust who's in charge.

Besides, people also judge their goverment by their actions, and/or inaction.

The US is not alone in this. There are minor protests in the Netherlands right now, and big protests in Spain (or so I've heard). Some protests may be justified, if the government has bungled their Corona response.

Also:



> You don't get to be number one in the world if your government is incompetent.




Its not just incompetence that fuels protests. The ugly side of capitalism, and the notion that the lives of lower income people are expendable and less valuable than the economy itself, are also perfect fuel for resentment and mistrust. Also, the USA is certainly not number one when it comes to health care, which seems pretty important to mention in this discussion.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> See, this, this right here, is a MAJOR source of the problem.  Look at countries that are doing ok.  Japan, NZ, Canada seems to be over the hump, etc.  Every one of these countries don't seem to have this giant, "No GUMMINT GONNA TELL ME WHAT TO DO!" approach.  Nor, do they have these very large anti-science groups who have used religion for the past couple of decades as the beat stick for forcing their agendas.
> 
> I'm still frankly baffled why Americans have always seemed to have had this giant hate on for their governments.  You are the richest nation in the world and have been so for over a century.  You haven't had a war on your own soil for over a century.  You lead the world in so many areas.
> 
> But, for some reason, everyone wants to blame the government for incompetency.   You don't get to be number one in the world if your government is incompetent.  It always completely baffles me.




 They're not number 1 per capita anymore. 

 Even if you cut out the fake country Micro states and Petro states. 

 Throw in the way money is distributed and yeah. 

 To get me to move to the USA is a free green card and six figures.

 Australia is probably one place I would be looking at all things considered.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> To be fair, how competent or incompetent the US government is, depends wildly on who is currently  in office. US mistrust in their own government is not always unjustified. Right now they are stuck with a president that denies science and the pandemic. I think that is fair reason to not trust who's in charge.
> 
> Besides, people also judge their goverment by their actions, and/or inaction.
> 
> The US is not alone in this. There are minor protests in the Netherlands right now, and big protests in Spain (or so I've heard).




 It's an inherent thing systematic to USA. Normally takes several years to turn a USAian into a kiwi.


----------



## Hussar

No, I get that there are issues.  Of course there are.  But, this flat out distrust of the government, when the government says, "Hey, the doctors are telling us to stay at home, so, folks, stay at home" and people just refuse to believe.  I was reading about the boycott Costco movement in the States because Costco insists that patrons wear a mask.  

People were actually trying to claim that this is against their rights.  Sorry, no.  It's really not.  There's nothing in the Constitution that says that a private business cannot tell you to wear something before coming in.  No shirt, no shoes, no service isn't a joke.  One woman actually talked about how wearing a mask had negative health effects because of restrictions of oxygen.  

If your mask is so fine that it restricts oxygen, it's not a mask, it's a plastic bag.  Please don't put that on your head.

And, there is a difference too.  Some countries are protesting bungled government actions in combatting corona virus.  Ok, fair enough.  These chuckleheads are claiming that it's a government conspiracy to take away your rights and turn America into a police state.  

It's mind blowing.

Then again, people here in Japan are pissed off because a local cartoonist (Doremon) had his character tell them that if they stay home and wear their masks, things will be better in the future.  And Doremon knows because he's from the future.  BIt tone deaf maybe, but, sheesh.  People get pissed about the weirdest things.


----------



## Imaculata

Hussar said:


> No, I get that there are issues.  Of course there are.  But, this flat out distrust of the government, when the government says, "Hey, the doctors are telling us to stay at home, so, folks, stay at home" and people just refuse to believe.




I know, it is kind of baffling. People yell about their freedoms because they have to spend a few months socially isolating, when the alternative is death. In this respect I am in total agreement with Cuomo:


----------



## UngainlyTitan

Hussar said:


> No, I get that there are issues.  Of course there are.  But, this flat out distrust of the government, when the government says, "Hey, the doctors are telling us to stay at home, so, folks, stay at home" and people just refuse to believe.  I was reading about the boycott Costco movement in the States because Costco insists that patrons wear a mask.
> 
> snip....



My anecdotal response, is that when I visited the US back in the noughties I was astonished at the amount of stuff thrown at the average American, via TV and other media, through the prism of fear, Politics, perfume, oatmeal.
It was very much "Buy (into) this or be a looser/dead or whatever. I was amazed.

I have also wonder if the fondness for dystopian fiction over the last 20 years or so been somewhat unhelpful.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> No, I get that there are issues.  Of course there are.  But, this flat out distrust of the government, when the government says, "Hey, the doctors are telling us to stay at home, so, folks, stay at home" and people just refuse to believe.  I was reading about the boycott Costco movement in the States because Costco insists that patrons wear a mask.
> 
> People were actually trying to claim that this is against their rights.  Sorry, no.  It's really not.  There's nothing in the Constitution that says that a private business cannot tell you to wear something before coming in.  No shirt, no shoes, no service isn't a joke.  One woman actually talked about how wearing a mask had negative health effects because of restrictions of oxygen.
> 
> If your mask is so fine that it restricts oxygen, it's not a mask, it's a plastic bag.  Please don't put that on your head.
> 
> And, there is a difference too.  Some countries are protesting bungled government actions in combatting corona virus.  Ok, fair enough.  These chuckleheads are claiming that it's a government conspiracy to take away your rights and turn America into a police state.
> 
> It's mind blowing.
> 
> Then again, people here in Japan are pissed off because a local cartoonist (Doremon) had his character tell them that if they stay home and wear their masks, things will be better in the future.  And Doremon knows because he's from the future.  BIt tone deaf maybe, but, sheesh.  People get pissed about the weirdest things.




Technically we're a police state.

 Very velvet glove they're using emergency powers never used before. Someone sued but it got shot down.


----------



## Zardnaar

ardoughter said:


> My anecdotal response, is that when I visited the US back in the noughties I was astonished at the amount of stuff thrown at the average American, via TV and other media, through the prism of fear, Politics, perfume, oatmeal.
> It was very much "Buy (into) this or be a looser/dead or whatever. I was amazed.
> 
> I have also wonder if the fondness for dystopian fiction over the last 20 years or so been somewhat unhelpful.



 That's a large part of it. There's an underlying current of fear in Americans. 

 They get over here and cops don't carry guns, sometimes forget to lock the door etc. 

 They're a lot more high strung but that can kind of applies to everyone that's not kiwi or Aussie.

 Most people are good most of the time but everyone's shaped by the environment they're raised in. 

  It's quite funny watching immigrants struggle with the concept of kiwiana.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> The demands not going to be there. Prices will have to go up espicially if they have to carry less people.




That's... not how supply and demand works.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> 8 billion people almost on the planet.
> 
> That numbers still less than the amount starving to death just in the next year or so.
> 
> A 5-10 year depression will probably kill more than that.




You know that you cannot kill more people than exist, right?


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> Pretty much this. Doubt everything this government claims, and use your common sense first and fore most.




The woman with the cut mask was using her common sense.  The folks protesting in front of state houses to open up businesses are using their common sense.

See how much that helped?


----------



## Umbran

ardoughter said:


> I have also wonder if the fondness for dystopian fiction over the last 20 years or so been somewhat unhelpful.




How much do you figure most of our current issues are caused by people who read more than the back of a cereal box?


----------



## tomBitonti

On the lighter side: Organizers of Portland's Naked Bike Ride encourage participants to carry on by themselves

"The World Naked Bike Ride usually sees thousands of nude cyclists baring it all as they ride through cities around the world. But of course, with the coronavirus pandemic, this year's event will be a little bit different.

While canceled in other cities -- including in St. Louis, London and San Francisco -- the Portland, Oregon, chapter has instead announced that the show must go on, just with a little more social distancing than usual.

Instead of gathering at a set location and time, anyone who wishes to participate are simply encouraged to strip down, hop on, and ride wherever and whenever they'd like, event organizers announced Tuesday."

That's 27-Jun, folks.

Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## UngainlyTitan

Umbran said:


> How much do you figure most of our current issues are caused by people who read more than the back of a cereal box?



Not all dystopian fiction is written


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> Realistic.
> 
> I got called doom and gloom when I predicted 9/11 casualties every 1-3 days for a month or two. And yet here we are.
> 
> I can give you some doom and gloom possibilities if you want.



Sigh. I was just joking Zard. I fully understand the gravity of all this, but chuckled as it just seems to keep rolling out the bad.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> You know that you cannot kill more people than exist, right?




 Yeah I didn't format that right. Meant to say there's 8 billion on planet. Even if you multiply Covid deaths by ten it's probably going to kill less people than starvation due to Covid. 


 We're slowly coming out of lockdown. Can now get takeaways buy not allowed in the shop. They put the eftpos machine on a table outside the door no cash. They hand you a box through a gap in the door.

 Two months of no takeaways. Tried a new spot fish and chip shop that does Malaysian of all things.






 Hot grease approx $18 USD. Fish was Hoki, sweet and sour chicken, chicken fried rice.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> I know, it is kind of baffling. People yell about their freedoms because they have to spend a few months socially isolating, when the alternative is death.



To be 100% fair, the alternative _includes the possibility of_ death.

...plus lung damage

...possible developmental issues

...organ failure

...loss of digits

..stroke and other neurological issues

...and the latest, long-lasting symptoms of unknown duration








						Another cruel COVID-19 trick: Symptoms that won't go away
					

"I think I'm in the clear, but I'm not sure," said a patient with a persistent fever. "It feels never-ending. I am at a loss."




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Deset Gled

Hussar said:


> But, this flat out distrust of the government, when the government says, "Hey, the doctors are telling us to stay at home, so, folks, stay at home" and people just refuse to believe.  ...
> 
> One woman actually talked about how wearing a mask had negative health effects because of restrictions of oxygen.   ... If your mask is so fine that it restricts oxygen, it's not a mask, it's a plastic bag.  Please don't put that on your head.




Can you really call it distrust of the government when the government is creating the mistrust?

It was bizarre to me to learn that Operation Gridlock (the anti-stay-at-home protest) in Michigan was orchestrated by members of the government.  It was started and funded by the Michigan Freedom Fund and the Michigan Conservative Coalition.  The MFF is funded by the DeVos family - that's Betsy DeVos, Secretary of Education.  The MCC was founded by Matt Maddock, a Michigan state Representative.

And our vice president literally walked around the Mayo Clinic last week without a mask.  He said he wanted to be able to talk to people and "look them in the eye and say thank you".  Edit: And it appears that as I am writing this, the president is doing a tour of a plant that makes face masks, without wearing a face mask.  He's is wearing safety glasses, though. 

In conclusion, I would have to say that this isn't really a "distrust of government" thing.  My guess is that it's some mix of an "anti-intellectualism" thing and a "it can't happen here" thing.


----------



## MarkB

Regarding air travel costs, how does travel insurance factor in? I can only assume it's going to be a lot higher, and remain so, while the possibilities of further outbreaks remain high - either that, or policies will specifically exclude many of the expected travel disruptions.


----------



## Istbor

Deset Gled said:


> Can you really call it distrust of the government when the government is creating the mistrust?
> 
> It was bizarre to me to learn that Operation Gridlock (the anti-stay-at-home protest) in Michigan was orchestrated by members of the government.  It was started and funded by the Michigan Freedom Fund and the Michigan Conservative Coalition.  The MFF is funded by the DeVos family - that's Betsy DeVos, Secretary of Education.  The MCC was founded by Matt Maddock, a Michigan state Representative.
> 
> And our vice president literally walked around the Mayo Clinic last week without a mask.  He said he wanted to be able to talk to people and "look them in the eye and say thank you".  Edit: And it appears that as I am writing this, the president is doing a tour of a plant that makes face masks, without wearing a face mask.  He's is wearing safety glasses, though.
> 
> In conclusion, I would have to say that this isn't really a "distrust of government" thing.  My guess is that it's some mix of an "anti-intellectualism" thing and a "it can't happen here" thing.




It definitely hurts messaging when leaders aren't following the suggestions their administration puts out there. It hurts even more then they are not consistent about it. 

Upside gaming wise, I have had a lot of time to think and world build a new setting while my in person group is on break. I am hoping we pick up where we left off, but I would rather be prepared in the event the decision is to start something new.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

The fact that people aren't staying inside isn't a "mistrust in the government" issue, though that may be part of the reason for a smaller group of people. The reason that people aren't staying inside (the main one at least) is because humans are a bunch of selfish jerks that hate being told to do something they don't like, no matter the cost. 

People evolved to be selfish, evolved to let the old and weak die. We eventually developed empathy along the evolutionary tree, but that came later than selfishness. Both help us survive, but people are also lazy and tend to do whatever option takes less effort from them.

The people who are violating stay at home orders and protesting the lockdown aren't patriots or heroes, like they say they are. It's that they're bored and selfish, and would rather go to work and eat out at restaurants than save tens of thousands of lives.


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> The fact that people aren't staying inside isn't a "mistrust in the government" issue, though that may be part of the reason for a smaller group of people. The reason that people aren't staying inside (the main one at least) is because humans are a bunch of selfish jerks that hate being told to do something they don't like, no matter the cost.
> 
> People evolved to be selfish, evolved to let the old and weak die. We eventually developed empathy along the evolutionary tree, but that came later than selfishness. Both help us survive, but people are also lazy and tend to do whatever option takes less effort from them.
> 
> The people who are violating stay at home orders and protesting the lockdown aren't patriots or heroes, like they say they are. It's that they're bored and selfish, and would rather go to work and eat out at restaurants than save tens of thousands of lives.




I don't think this is true.

We are seeing a wide display of behaviours from different cultures.

South Korea is doing a great job of social distancing and wearing masks.

People in Canada are mostly following recommendations and I think more would wear masks if they were more readily available. There are a few who are causing problems.

A lot of people in the USA are being problematic. That said there are areas that are better than others. Most people in New York are being reasonable.

I also disagree with your statement regarding evolution. We humans are very social creatures. What is good for our community is good for us. We can't survive without our community. 

The vast majority of people experience a large amount of empathy. Some more than others and unfortunately some less than others. Those tend to be troublesome. Problematic behaviours also arise from other factors from the environment and socio-economic conditions, etc.

Back to the topic of empathy I think a lot of it comes down to who the person views as being part of their community. Who they relate to and who they have learned (whether mistakenly or not) is an enemy or potential one. 

I think this in part has a lot to do with culture. I believe a society is only as strong as how the more vulnerable are treated. 

Culture also shapes our goals in the world. The accumulation of power is more prevalant in the USA than it is in other wealthy countries whose chief differences are a robust social safety net. That keeps the powerful in check and allows for others to pursue other goals in life such as bettering oneself and supporting others.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The latest installment in Crisis & Cronyism:








						How Kushner's Volunteer Force Led a Fumbling Hunt for Medical Supplies
					

This spring, as the United States faced a critical shortage of masks, gloves and other protective equipment to battle the coronavirus pandemic, a South Carolina physician reached out to the Federal Emergency Management Agency with an offer of help.Dr. Jeffrey Hendricks had longtime manufacturing...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## ccs

Hussar said:


> See, this, this right here, is a MAJOR source of the problem.  Look at countries that are doing ok.  Japan, NZ, Canada seems to be over the hump, etc.  Every one of these countries don't seem to have this giant, "No GUMMINT GONNA TELL ME WHAT TO DO!" approach.  Nor, do they have these very large anti-science groups who have used religion for the past couple of decades as the beat stick for forcing their agendas.
> 
> I'm still frankly baffled why Americans have always seemed to have had this giant hate on for their governments.  You are the richest nation in the world and have been so for over a century.  You haven't had a war on your own soil for over a century.  You lead the world in so many areas.
> 
> But, for some reason, everyone wants to blame the government for incompetency.   You don't get to be number one in the world if your government is incompetent.  It always completely baffles me.




You're right.  Overall we are awesome.

Unfortunately....   
My countries current federal government is incompetent.  It's costing us.  And on this one it'll get more of us (and some of you) killed.   
The doctors & scientists?  I trust them.  But they aren't the ones setting policy over here & the government is NOT heeding their advice.  Or they heed it only as convenient & then half-assed at that.  Hell, our President & VP don't even heed the recommendations of wearing of a mask as they tour hospital/labs & PPE factories.
As for what works?  We can point to several countries.  Are we doing what they are?  Nope.  Quite the opposite, we're opening things up as our #s climb!  We didn't even wait for it to plateau, let alone for it to decline.
ATM?  I _wish_ I were sitting around locked down in NZ or somewhere sane.  Instead I'm here in the land of armed protesters who seem determined to contract/spread disease,  beach going idiots, people shooting each other when asked to wear a mask, & morons who suggest injecting disinfectant as a cure.
My best hope?  Hide out on my farm, see the same 6-8 people/week, & literally out-live a bunch of fools.


----------



## Umbran

Mod Note:

Folks... AGAIN.  Why Americans hate government, and a whole bunch of the rest of this jazz, is really is out of scope.  This is not a "gripe about government" thread.


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> You're right.  Overall we are awesome.
> 
> Unfortunately....
> My countries current federal government is incompetent.  It's costing us.  And on this one it'll get more of us (and some of you) killed.
> The doctors & scientists?  I trust them.  But they aren't the ones setting policy over here & the government is NOT heeding their advice.  Or they heed it only as convenient & then half-assed at that.  Hell, our President & VP don't even heed the recommendations of wearing of a mask as they tour hospital/labs & PPE factories.
> As for what works?  We can point to several countries.  Are we doing what they are?  Nope.  Quite the opposite, we're opening things up as our #s climb!  We didn't even wait for it to plateau, let alone for it to decline.
> ATM?  I _wish_ I were sitting around locked down in NZ or somewhere sane.  Instead I'm here in the land of armed protesters who seem determined to contract/spread disease,  beach going idiots, people shooting each other when asked to wear a mask, & morons who suggest injecting disinfectant as a cure.
> My best hope?  Hide out on my farm, see the same 6-8 people/week, & literally out-live a bunch of fools.




 Looks like our lockdown is ending next week or at least the expectation of it is. 

 Even here I don't think it's viable for to much longer. As soon as the lockdown level was lowered there was a large uptick in people breaking the rules. 

 The fear of Covid isn't there anymore.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Covid-19 isn't going away. Daily deaths will double in June, according to the most recent models. Just because it's summer, it doesn't make the disease go away, despite Trump's comments.


----------



## Zardnaar

Oh we've also got ait of tourists trapped here.

 Some are still enjoying themselves. They're in bubble's in Queenstown or in camper vans parked up near the ocean. 

 Their families have told them may as well wait it out as the supermarkets weren't stripped and Covids not a big deal. 

 If you can't get trapped in NZ or Australia Rarotonga and Samoa have 0 Covid and of you have enough money they would be my places of choice to wait things out. 

 Tourist visa here us good for a year and they're auto extending the for any one stuck (and feeding the ones stuck with no money).


----------



## Azzy

Zardnaar said:


> That's a large part of it. There's an underlying current of fear in Americans.
> 
> They get over here and cops don't carry guns, sometimes forget to lock the door etc.
> 
> They're a lot more high strung but that can kind of applies to everyone that's not kiwi or Aussie.
> 
> Most people are good most of the time but everyone's shaped by the environment they're raised in.
> 
> It's quite funny watching immigrants struggle with the concept of kiwiana.




If I had the cash, I'd move and enjoy the struggle. XD


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Looks like our lockdown is ending next week or at least the expectation of it is.
> 
> Even here I don't think it's viable for to much longer. As soon as the lockdown level was lowered there was a large uptick in people breaking the rules.
> 
> The fear of Covid isn't there anymore.




Yeah, but that's because you've beaten it down to minimal new cases & minimal new deaths.
That isn't the case yet here in the USA.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ccs said:


> I do not hate government
> 
> 
> Yeah, but that's because you've beaten it down to minimal new cases & minimal new deaths.
> That isn't the case yet here in the USA.



Yeah, in the US we haven't even reached the peak yet.


----------



## NotAYakk

NYC deaths are falling.  The rest of the country is increasing deaths in lockstep.

Loverly.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Yeah. People for some reason decided that as soon as we start approaching the most amount of deaths in the country that it's time to reopen everything. You know, if we're going to have the record for deaths in any country, why not go all the way? (Obviously I am sarcastic. I have a soul.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Well went for a walk to pharmacy and back about 5km round trip. 

  Some local cafes are open. All our big box stuff still closed. First time I've gone anywhere apart from supermarket since mid March.






 This is the pharmacy and local medical center. Barricades set up, they just gave me another prescription over the phone. Inhalers were $3 USD for two. Limit of 3 in store at one time, staff will get stuff off the shelf for you. No touching.





 Sanitizer is turning up in supermarkets again. Pharmacy has masks and sanitizer.

1NZD approx 0.63 USD. NZ makes N95 masks and ventilators apparently. 

 Second coffee I've had this year from Cafe. You can't enter the shop. They've blocked the door with a table and set up EFTPOS machine. No contact shopping in lockdown level 3. They've put the cakes/slices/muffins in window. Impulse buy got me.





 2 large coffees and two slices were approx $13 USD. Two coffee shops right near the Pharmacy. 





Chocolate base, cherry, peccan maybe.

Most shops still shut. Sane with banks etc.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Also, people are overreacting to being stuck inside. Sure, it sucks. We all hate it, even us introverts. But you don't have to freaking shoot and murder someone over a face mask! This happened at a store in Michigan, in case you haven't heard.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ...and the latest, long-lasting symptoms of unknown duration
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Another cruel COVID-19 trick: Symptoms that won't go away
> 
> 
> "I think I'm in the clear, but I'm not sure," said a patient with a persistent fever. "It feels never-ending. I am at a loss."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




Yet another article that describes what I've gone through in the past 8 weeks. (Though I don't think I've had a fever for at least 5 of those weeks, maybe 6.) But, MAN... I wonder when I will stop choking on goo.


----------



## MoonSong

FitzTheRuke said:


> Yet another article that describes what I've gone through in the past 8 weeks. (Though I don't think I've had a fever for at least 5 of those weeks, maybe 6.) But, MAN... I wonder when I will stop choking on goo.



Take care of yourself, and get well. I hope you get through this. (But on the discouraging side of things. I live with this particular virus that just comes back whenever my defenses get low. I'm always one bad -or short- night or an incredibly stressful situation away from it coming back.)


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

The main thing that will help us be able to open back up is testing. We need more testing. There's a great new video by John Oliver on youtube on this subject, and why it's key that we get more testing if we want to save the economy.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> NYC deaths are falling.  The rest of the country is increasing deaths in lockstep.




A little too broadly stated.  Within some day to day variation, Boston's deaths are flat, and our cases per day look like they are trending downward.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

A better statement would be, "Deaths overall in the US are rising, along with cases."


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> A better statement would be, "Deaths overall in the US are rising, along with cases."




Yah.  

So, we have had a statistical weirdness related to Covid-19.  As you'd imagine, overall traffic volume is down.  However, at least in my town, traffic _accidents_ are up.  Apparently, those idiots who are on the road are saying, 'Gee, the road's empty!  I can go as fast as I want!' and they then smash into other cars and people, because they forget silly things like physics don't shut down during a pandemic.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

That'sssss. Um. Yeah, this is not good. Strange situations bring out the worst in a lot of people. Idiots get more idiotic an start burning down cell towers because they think viruses are transmitted through 5G networks. (Cell Tower Coronavirus Conspiracy Theory)

People shoot each other because they don't have the decency to put on face masks.

People want someone to blame for ruining their spring/summer plans, so they draft up conspiracy theories, go on protests that make us stay in longer, and blame China, the Government, and basically anything on the current world we're living in.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> People want someone to blame for ruining their spring/summer plans, so they draft up conspiracy theories




I think the psychology of conspiracy theory is a little deeper than that, but yeah, people get dim.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> I think the psychology of conspiracy theory is a little deeper than that, but yeah, people get dim.



Yeah, I'm not saying all conspiracy theories originate from people wanting someone to blame, but I think specifically for Coronavirus theories it is mainly looking for someone to blame.


----------



## Zardnaar

What's that fancy term for people who think they're a lot smarter than they are? Dunning whatever. 

 A lot of conspiracy theorys are people thinking they're smarter than most because they're in on "the truth". 

 I've met a Holocaust denier, flat earther and a 9/11 that were otherwise intelligent people. The flat earther was quite funny as he also believed Mesa were fossilized ancient tree stumps. 
 He was also very good at a lot of life skills, and with his hands.he was a qualified cable installer in construction and maintained power tools and could reassemble almost anything. Also knew his way around a garden and seemed to be a bit of a prepper.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> Yah.
> 
> So, we have had a statistical weirdness related to Covid-19.  As you'd imagine, overall traffic volume is down.  However, at least in my town, traffic _accidents_ are up.  Apparently, those idiots who are on the road are saying, 'Gee, the road's empty!  I can go as fast as I want!' and they then smash into other cars and people, because they forget silly things like physics don't shut down during a pandemic.



Over the weekend I saw an article that CHiPs (CA Highway Patrol) has handed out twice as many tickets for driving 100+ MPH as usual.  (Simultaneously, total tickets written is down.)  I'm waiting to hear that somebody got pulled over for speeding and his speakers were blasting "I - CAN'T - DRIVE - 55 !"


----------



## Jester David

Some conspiracy theories make sense. The labratory theory is a huuuuuuge stretch (and not true) but it's not outside the bounds of logic. But the G5 theory is just dumb and makes zero sense.
Ignoring the fact those frequencies have been used before and that micorwaves at those frequencies are non-ionizing and don't affect living tissue... 5G isn't worldwide. There's no 5G in Canada, but 63,000 cases of Covid-19. 
Correlation doesn't equal causation... _especially when there's not even any correlation_. 

Anyhoo, happy to hear some people are out of lockdown. Still ongoing here in Alberta but is mostly under control. A few more weeks. 
Not that it matters to me. Schools are still closed for the year, so I'm laid off until September when they open up. It's going to be a looooong four months.


----------



## Zardnaar

One new case today, expectations are to ease restrictions next week. Restaurants and stores can reopen with restrictions.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

The city I live in in Washington has more cases than any other region in my state, because people aren't following stay at home orders. Then people justify the deaths by saying, "It's okay, they were old or had pre-existing health conditions". My town is filled with terrible people who are essentially killing people.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

I can't understand anyone who thinks that old people should have less a right to live.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

It’s one thing to make decisions based on pure fantasy.  It is another to reveal your fantastical process to the world.








						Trump's advisers released a 'beyond stupid' mathematical model of coronavirus deaths created in Excel by a controversial economist
					

A slew of economists and public health experts have repudiated Kevin Hassett's model and some argued he bent the data to fit the outcome he desired.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Mikeythorn

AcererakTriple6 said:


> The main thing that will help us be able to open back up is testing. We need more testing. There's a great new video by John Oliver on youtube on this subject, and why it's key that we get more testing if we want to save the economy.



Here in New Zealand the government’s position has been that three things are vital: testing; quarantine of those who test positive and close contacts; and rapid contact tracing. I am wondering how well contact tracing is going in countries with large numbers (eg over 100,000) of cases? Can anyone in one of those countries comment? I have a background in public health, and have done contact tracing myself in the past, and it is massively time-consuming.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Well, THIS is an interesting wrinkle!








						Coronavirus survivors banned from joining the military
					

Recruits who have survived COVID-19 are disqualified from joining up.




					www.militarytimes.com


----------



## Olrox17

Umbran said:


> Yah.
> 
> So, we have had a statistical weirdness related to Covid-19.  As you'd imagine, overall traffic volume is down.  However, at least in my town, traffic _accidents_ are up.  Apparently, those idiots who are on the road are saying, 'Gee, the road's empty!  I can go as fast as I want!' and they then smash into other cars and people, because they forget silly things like physics don't shut down during a pandemic.



That’s insane. Here in Rome, ironically enough, overall deaths are 9% LOWER than last year. Why? First, covid 19 hasn’t hit Rome hard, so that’s not a factor. Second, no traffic accidents, which makes a big, big difference.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Remember where you were when you found out the HIV drug AZT was made from substances found in herring and salmon semen?

Well, llama blood may prove to be key in fighting Covid-19.








						A llama named Winter could be the key to fighting the coronavirus
					

Preliminary research suggests a tiny particle in llama blood can stop the coronavirus.




					www.marketwatch.com


----------



## Imaculata

Zardnaar said:


> What's that fancy term for people who think they're a lot smarter than they are?




Mr President?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> What's that fancy term for people who think they're a lot smarter than they are? Dunning whatever.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> Mr President?



Let’s not go any further down that road, mm’kay?


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


>




 That's it. 

 Learnt that term a few years back when my clan licked down several thousand dollars of in game currency. For a year. 

Took around 8 clans 3 months to dislodge us. Get gude scrubs.


----------



## Mage of Spellford

Interesting comparison between the U.S. and Canada. Take New York out of the equation and the numbers are not as far apart as we would like to believe.




			https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-us-canada-death-rates-1.5553168


----------



## NotAYakk

FitzTheRuke said:


> I can't understand anyone who thinks that old people should have less a right to live.



So there is something called QLY -- quality of life years.

The idea is that if a medical intervention would generate 1 year of bedridden life on average, it is worth 0.9 QLY.  If another medical intervention would generate an average of 60 years of fully mobile and 20 years of bedrest, it is worth 78 QLY.

This is used to pick where the medical system should throw resources.  If someone is dying of 7 different things, and curing one means they die on average 1 month later, and they spend that month in a coma, should we do that intervention or should we cure the cancer in the 14 year old, whose prognosis is a 95% of a full lifespan with no side effects?

The easy answer is "do both", but resources are limited (and often represented by money).  At some level you have to decide between them.

This leads to deciding that the age and health of the person _does_ change the cost:benefit analysis of the medical intervention; or, in less abstract terms, that we "value the life" of an old person less.

What happens when you apply this rule to compare health care resources to non-health-care resources?  How much GDP loss is saving X lives worth?  X million dollars?  X billion dollars?  X trillion dollars?


----------



## NotAYakk

Mage of Spellford said:


> Interesting comparison between the U.S. and Canada. Take New York out of the equation and the numbers are not as far apart as we would like to believe.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-us-canada-death-rates-1.5553168



Sure, but if you are removing the worst-hit US city, can you also take Montreal out?

About 1/3 of Canada's cases have been in Montreal.  It, similar to NYC, has a heavily used subway.


----------



## MoonSong

FitzTheRuke said:


> I can't understand anyone who thinks that old people should have less a right to live.



It is scary. But I have seen lots of people who think like that. Some of them are resentful of the older generation holding -from their point of view- all of the important jobs, all of the wealth and all of the power and can't wait for them to pass away so they can have all of that. It gets disgusting, they call the virus the "boomer remover" with glee and don't care about containing the virus, if anything, they'd rather have it spread even more quickly, so "it does its job". They don't care about getting infected themselves because they think that they will only catch a mild cold. I don't know if these people are resentful with life or hate their parents, or are stunted in their growth with the maturity of a teenager, or are plain psychos.


----------



## FrozenNorth

Mage of Spellford said:


> Interesting comparison between the U.S. and Canada. Take New York out of the equation and the numbers are not as far apart as we would like to believe.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-us-canada-death-rates-1.5553168



How do the numbers look if you take out both New York (as the US flashpoint) and Quebec (the Canadian flashpoint)?

I suspect that the numbers go back to being pretty damning for the US.


----------



## Eltab

Mikeythorn said:


> Here in New Zealand the government’s position has been that three things are vital: testing; quarantine of those who test positive and close contacts; and rapid contact tracing. I am wondering how well contact tracing is going in countries with large numbers (eg over 100,000) of cases? Can anyone in one of those countries comment? I have a background in public health, and have done contact tracing myself in the past, and it is massively time-consuming.



If the US or State governments are doing widespread tests, quarantining the sick, and/or tracing contacts, that effort is a deep dark secret - or (my suspicion) the effort is being squandered by "trying to be strong everywhere at once" and dividing the supplies into penny packets that go to every large city, where they are swallowed up like a drop in a bucket.  We are not getting anywhere - new cases keep arising - even though the entire population was put under quarantine long enough ago to catch asymptomatic carriers and remove them from crowds.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Trump administration buries detailed CDC advice on reopening
					

The Trump administration shelved a document created by the nation's top disease investigators with step-by-step advice to local authorities on how and when to reopen restaurants and other public places during the still-raging coronavirus outbreak.  It was supposed to be published last Friday...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

More fun!








						The coronavirus can be found in semen, raising questions of whether it can be sexually transmitted, new research says
					

New research found that 16% of male patients studied had coronavirus particles in their semen, but it's unclear if it can be sexually transmitted.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ... but don't call me Shirley.




Daily Beast claims to have a copy here:









						Read the CDC Coronavirus Document the White House Didn’t Want You to See
					

The Trump administration might not have wanted you to see these new guidelines for reopening America—but the nation’s top infectious-disease experts did, so maybe take a look.



					www.thedailybeast.com
				




Note: The site is political, the document itself isn't.  Couldn't find a more neutral link.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> If the US or State governments are doing widespread tests, quarantining the sick, and/or tracing contacts, that effort is a deep dark secret - or (my suspicion) the effort is being squandered by "trying to be strong everywhere at once" and dividing the supplies into penny packets that go to every large city, where they are swallowed up like a drop in a bucket.  We are not getting anywhere - new cases keep arising - even though the entire population was put under quarantine long enough ago to catch asymptomatic carriers and remove them from crowds.



We have people protesting masking orders as unconstitutional.  How do you think contact tracing will fly with that segment of the population?


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> More fun!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The coronavirus can be found in semen, raising questions of whether it can be sexually transmitted, new research says
> 
> 
> New research found that 16% of male patients studied had coronavirus particles in their semen, but it's unclear if it can be sexually transmitted.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



Can you tell any difference between the viruses travelling that way, and the viruses you put out in the air by puffing and panting in the meanwhile?


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We have people protesting masking orders as unconstitutional.  How do you think contact tracing will fly with that segment of the population?



"Bad news, sir - your friend has it."
" Does that mean I finally get a test to see if I have it?  About time! ... Er um I mean Get off my lawn! "


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> Can you tell any difference between the viruses travelling that way, and the viruses you put out in the air by puffing and panting in the meanwhile?



Judging by how preliminary the researchers say these findings are, who knows?


----------



## Maxperson

Eltab said:


> If the US or State governments are doing widespread tests, quarantining the sick, and/or tracing contacts, that effort is a deep dark secret - or (my suspicion) the effort is being squandered by "trying to be strong everywhere at once" and dividing the supplies into penny packets that go to every large city, where they are swallowed up like a drop in a bucket.  We are not getting anywhere - new cases keep arising - even though the entire population was put under quarantine long enough ago to catch asymptomatic carriers and remove them from crowds.



Not really.  There are so many "essential" jobs that between large numbers of people still working and having to go to stores and gas stations, that the spread has only been slowed a bit.  We aren't even close to putting the entire population into quarantine, and that's in the states that are reacting the strongest.  In places like Florida and some other states that didn't really close down on time or completely, it's even worse.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Dannyalcatraz said:


> More fun!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The coronavirus can be found in semen, raising questions of whether it can be sexually transmitted, new research says
> 
> 
> New research found that 16% of male patients studied had coronavirus particles in their semen, but it's unclear if it can be sexually transmitted.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




That seems like pretty unimportant semantics - if you're sick, having sex with someone is a surefire way to pass it to them, regardless of HOW. Sweat and breathing are more likely. I mean, all this study is gonna do is to make stupid people think that wearing a condom would make them "safe".


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FitzTheRuke said:


> That seems like pretty unimportant semantics - if you're sick, having sex with someone is a surefire way to pass it to them, regardless of HOW. Sweat and breathing are more likely. I mean, all this study is gonna do is to make stupid people think that wearing a condom would make them "safe".



You’re forgetting to factor in the asymptomatic carriers.  This is a family site, so I’m not going into details, but this IS a potentially a new vector.

And, like other STDs, this could mean it negatively affects fertility.

It could also be a concern for medical facilities that handle semen- in vitro fertility clinics, DNA labs, etc.- depending on the safety measures they currently have in place.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

MoonSong said:


> It is scary. But I have seen lots of people who think like that. Some of them are resentful of the older generation holding -from their point of view- all of the important jobs, all of the wealth and all of the power and can't wait for them to pass away so they can have all of that. It gets disgusting, they call the virus the "boomer remover" with glee and don't care about containing the virus, if anything, they'd rather have it spread even more quickly, so "it does its job". They don't care about getting infected themselves because they think that they will only catch a mild cold. I don't know if these people are resentful with life or hate their parents, or are stunted in their growth with the maturity of a teenager, or are plain psychos.




I don't know how this place handles politics, and I don't want to make a mistake, so I say vaguely the following:

It is my observation that a lot of the hostility that you see (#OKBOOMERVIRUS) is primarily political; it's not about the jobs, or the wealth, but more the belief that an older generation has elected the people that are making this situation worse by lying and ignoring the problem. 

At least, that is my observation. It's more the release of a rage that's been simmering for a while. And that's all I will mention.


----------



## ad_hoc

Mage of Spellford said:


> Interesting comparison between the U.S. and Canada. Take New York out of the equation and the numbers are not as far apart as we would like to believe.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-us-canada-death-rates-1.5553168




What if we take Quebec out?

What if we factor in that 80% of the deaths are in long term care homes?

The biggest change right now is going to be from the states opening up too soon. We're going to see a huge difference I think.


----------



## NotAYakk

Eltab said:


> If the US or State governments are doing widespread tests, quarantining the sick, and/or tracing contacts, that effort is a deep dark secret - or (my suspicion) the effort is being squandered by "trying to be strong everywhere at once" and dividing the supplies into penny packets that go to every large city, where they are swallowed up like a drop in a bucket.  We are not getting anywhere - new cases keep arising - even though the entire population was put under quarantine long enough ago to catch asymptomatic carriers and remove them from crowds.



The US federal government is using a single built-in excel function to predict what the spread of Covid-19 is doing.  The US federal government isn't "trying to be strong everywhere", it is simply being incompetent.

Various state governments pandemic responses where predicated on a CDC that wasn't being incompetent (as was Canada's; Canada's central health agency was planning to coordinate with the CDC.  But the CDC is hamstrung and not doing it.).  They are scrambling to deal with this pandemic with zero to negative federal assistance.

Very few parts of the world have the testing capacity to mass test the population.  Very few parts of the world have a public health infrastructure needed to contact trace positive cases and notify the people who are at risk to get a test.  And this is reasonable; you need a *LOT* of work per positive result to do effective contact tracing in any kind of traditional way.

To do it non-traditionally, you need a central pandemic response that isn't incompetent and has the expertise for this sort of thing.  Not many US states have a full-fledged set of pandemic experts on staff; and, the US federal response is hamstrung by its executive leadership, who is pushing for quack cures and reopening, instead of going to war with it.

Instead, what we have is untraced community spread.  Social isolation can bend R0 -- reproductive number -- down, but it takes a serious and uniform effort to get it under 0.  The US response, patchwork, means that R0 is at or above 1 in most of the country (geographically, and possibly population wise).  Only in areas where the local government saw a disaster coming does it go below 1 (washington state, some areas of california, new york).  And often too late.  NYC is going to hit about 30% infection even with a shutdown.

To extinguish this quickly, you have to shut down *before the 2nd death* ideally, and definitely before the 12th.  Washington got "lucky" in that it killed a bunch of people in an old folks home "early", so they had the political capital to do a shutdown earlier than most areas do.

NYC got unlucky, as apparently the subways meant that their R0 was insanely high, and by the time they responded it was everywhere.

Remember, if it doubles every 4 days and 1% die about 20 days after getting it, by the time the first person died you had 2^5*100 = 3,200 people infected.  And 50 days later with uncontrolled spread 1 million are infected.

NYC had it doubling every 2-3 days instead of every 4 during that period, and did lockdown when around a dozen died.  20/2 is 10, 20/3 is 7, so 2^(7 to 10) * 100 * 12 150k to 1.2 million infected.

It is the places where there are no cases and nobody dead that need to lockdown to prevent this from growing.  Then you need to reduce mobility and start contact tracing every new diagnosted case, and testing everyone with any symptoms whatsoever with a rapid turn-around test.

All of this requires central proactive leadership aimed at wiping out Covid-19, that the USA is lacking.  The US central leadership is complaining that the malls aren't open, not that people are dieing.

With a privately run health care system, it is going bankrupt and the work for this public health measure doesn't come with funding; US health care is paid for by elective surgeries and other low-value high-price stuff, not by a central government that can aim resources at public health prevention.

The individual state model doesn't work well, because if one state says "naughty word it, let them die", the states that don't do that have to shut off travel to those states or their work is for nothing.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Dannyalcatraz said:


> You’re forgetting to factor in the asymptomatic carriers.  This is a family site, so I’m not going into details, but this IS a potentially a new vector.
> 
> And, like other STDs, this could mean it negatively affects fertility.
> 
> It could also be a concern for medical facilities that handle semen- in vitro fertility clinics, DNA labs, etc.- depending on the safety measures they currently have in place.




No I'm not. AFAIK asymptomatic carriers are still contagious if they breathe on you. They're just safER from closer because regular breath doesn't travel as far as coughing does (nor does it have as large moisture particles). Sweat and heavy breathing would still be at least as dangerous from an asymptomatic carrier as their semen.

Your last sentence makes sense though. It might be a concern for them, though I would hope that facilities that handle semen would already do it "cleanly".


----------



## The Green Hermit

Umbran said:


> A little too broadly stated.  Within some day to day variation, Boston's deaths are flat, and our cases per day look like they are trending downward.



 My county (rural SW Washington state) now has 8 confirmed cases and 1 death. The death shouldn't even be counted, though, because he was out of state the entire time, even if this was his home address. All others are connected to one specific outbreak at a seafood packing company, so contact tracing is working and there doesn't seem to be random community spread at this point.

I'm feeling pretty comfortable, but know that it's still out there.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Zardnaar said:


> What's that fancy term for people who think they're a lot smarter than they are? Dunning whatever.
> 
> A lot of conspiracy theorys are people thinking they're smarter than most because they're in on "the truth".
> 
> I've met a Holocaust denier, flat earther and a 9/11 that were otherwise intelligent people. The flat earther was quite funny as he also believed Mesa were fossilized ancient tree stumps.
> He was also very good at a lot of life skills, and with his hands.he was a qualified cable installer in construction and maintained power tools and could reassemble almost anything. Also knew his way around a garden and seemed to be a bit of a prepper.



One of my former students is a flat earther and he's been in fighter jets -- high enough that he can actually SEE the curvature of the earth. Otherwise, though, an intelligent dude. He just likes his tin hats.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Eltab said:


> Over the weekend I saw an article that CHiPs (CA Highway Patrol) has handed out twice as many tickets for driving 100+ MPH as usual.  (Simultaneously, total tickets written is down.)  I'm waiting to hear that somebody got pulled over for speeding and his speakers were blasting "I - CAN'T - DRIVE - 55 !"



Save it for when you're getting pulled over. At least the cop will chuckle as he writes your ticket.


----------



## Zardnaar

People are allowed on roads? 

 They basically banned non essential travel here and going between towns and city's was kinda banned as well. 

 Essential travel mostly to and from work in essential services.


----------



## The Green Hermit

Zardnaar said:


> People are allowed on roads?
> 
> They basically banned non essential travel here and going between towns and city's was kinda banned as well.
> 
> Essential travel mostly to and from work in essential services.



Yep. Roads have never been shut down in the US.


----------



## Zardnaar

The Green Hermit said:


> Yep. Roads have never been shut down in the US.




 Same here you're just not supposed to be on them. 

 Some tribes erected barricades on the roads to stop tourists. 

Cops let them as they had no healthcare facilities in their area beyond the local doctor.

People complained they couldn't go to the beach which they weren't supposed to be. Also the beaches are a food source.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FitzTheRuke said:


> No I'm not. AFAIK asymptomatic carriers are still contagious if they breathe on you.



Like I said, this is a family website.  No details, but there ARE human sexual practices where the male does not have to breathe on his partner.

And according to Johns-Hopkins, 


> *Should I stop going to the gym?*
> As the new coronavirus is spreading, be cautious about all possible exposures, including at the gym or fitness center. *The virus isn’t spread through perspiration (sweat)*, but items touched by many people (barbells, etc.) could pose a risk. In order to practice social and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is best to avoid public places at this time.


----------



## ccs

The Green Hermit said:


> One of my former students is a flat earther and he's been in fighter jets -- high enough that he can actually SEE the curvature of the earth. Otherwise, though, an intelligent dude. He just likes his tin hats.




So how's he explain away what he's seen with his own eyes?


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> ...even though the entire population was put under quarantine...




No, we really haven't been.  We have been under mostly voluntary social distancing, that large numbers of people disregard.   Lay on top of that how many people's jobs are considered "essential" right now, and it is not surprising things have not been more effective.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> People are allowed on roads?
> 
> They basically banned non essential travel here and going between towns and city's was kinda banned as well.
> 
> Essential travel mostly to and from work in essential services.



Yes, US measures are crap.  There is a reason why their epidemic keeps growing.

In areas where it is already going insane they are doing something probably like a level 3 NZ response, which slows it down and starts it shrinking.  Meanwhile, a state away, they'll have people drinking in bars, and people driving from A to B and back again.

So their hot spots don't stay isolated, their hot spots burn longer, and new hot spots are appearing all over the place.

Now, in a given hot spot, they'll put the breaks on it.  So NYC stopped it at about 20% infected.  But soon they'll reopen and it will go up to 30% or 40%, then again, and again.  Meanwhile, other places are blindly wandering towards outbreaks.

With no coordinated federal response of any competence and free movement between areas, I don't see how they will avoid losing the battle.

It is an incoherent and ineffective local responds to a global problem.  They are heading strait for 0.5% population death rate, at least among the poors.  The smarter wealthy are all hiding, and can weather this without face to face contact.

I'd guess 1 - 2 million dead, of which less than 2/3 will be counted as diagnosed Covid-19 cases.  But it will take a while.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Same here you're just not supposed to be on them.



Yeah, in the US, there's definitely less people on the roads in my town, but barely noticeably less. 


Zardnaar said:


> Some tribes erected barricades on the roads to stop tourists.



We should erect barricades in Washington around my town to keep the idiots from leaving my town. There's so many here that it would really be better to keep them inside this city than to let them spread coronavirus to other places in the west coast. Our local newspaper up until this pandemic was well trusted and renowned, but now they're posting articles and stories on people dying, how staying inside is important, and how facemasks protect people, so everyone is calling it "fake news" now. 


Zardnaar said:


> Cops let them as they had no healthcare facilities in their area beyond the local doctor.



Yeah, we don't have anyone who is a tourist to my town (despite the billboard that calls it the Palm Springs of Washington) but this seems reasonable. Sounds like your cops are better than my towns.


Zardnaar said:


> People complained they couldn't go to the beach which they weren't supposed to be. Also the beaches are a good source.



People will complain about any type of change, even one that saves lives. People like whining. 
(What this pandemic is proving to me even more is that America is filled with heartless idiots who'd rather die than lose a bit of money.)


----------



## Istbor

This happened.
President Trump's Personal Valet Tests Positive for Coronavirus


----------



## Deset Gled

ccs said:


> So how's he explain away what he's seen with his own eyes?




Cognitive dissonance.

I don't like calling flat-earthers, sovereign citizens, or anti-vaxxers "conspiracy theorists".  The word "theory" gives them too much credibility.  Thinking the government is monitoring your phone or that a cabal of wealthy individuals controls all the insulin in the world are conspiracy theories; highly unlikely, but theoretically possible.  The ability to straight out deny reality when it stares you in the face by talking loudly and ignoring all evidence contrary to your worldview is something else.


----------



## ad_hoc

Deset Gled said:


> Cognitive dissonance.
> 
> I don't like calling flat-earthers, sovereign citizens, or anti-vaxxers "conspiracy theorists".  The word "theory" gives them too much credibility.  Thinking the government is monitoring your phone or that a cabal of wealthy individuals controls all the insulin in the world are conspiracy theories; highly unlikely, but theoretically possible.  The ability to straight out deny reality when it stares you in the face by talking loudly and ignoring all evidence contrary to your worldview is something else.




My conspiracy theory is that all flat-earthers don't really believe it. They just want to get in on the conspiracy theory lifestyle so they have chosen it to argue for. They're all in on it and at meetings they joke about how fun it is to argue with people.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> My conspiracy theory is that all flat-earthers don't really believe it. They just want to get in on the conspiracy theory lifestyle so they have chosen it to argue for. They're all in on it and at meetings they joke about how fun it is to argue with people.




 Some are true believers.

Yay number 1.








						NZ ranked first in world for Covid-19 response communications
					

A global survey of the public relations industry puts the Ardern government top of the pile.  As New Zealand records its second consecutive day of zero new cases of Covid-19, moving cautiously closer towards the goal of “elimination”, the government has received another international plaudit for t




					thespinoff.co.nz


----------



## ad_hoc

So about that reopening in the states...


----------



## NotAYakk

Should use a guassian with SD or about ~3 and ~9 days lagging.  Gives you a better idea of infections instead of diagnosis rates.  It does mean that the last week or two of information isn't there yet; you can correct for this somewhat by dividing by the area of the guassian in the future, but that over estimates on downturns and under on up (makes things look more flat).

But I guess a 7 day average is simpler to think about.


----------



## Zardnaar

Time to pay the Piper. Drink!!!









						Week in politics: A bad news Budget like no other
					

Analysis - Level 2 relief is just around the corner but there's a tsunami of bad news on the way starting with next week's Budget, writes Peter Wilson.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> My conspiracy theory is that all flat-earthers don't really believe it. They just want to get in on the conspiracy theory lifestyle so they have chosen it to argue for. They're all in on it and at meetings they joke about how fun it is to argue with people.




At least one dude has _died_ (in a self-made steam-powered rocket) over flat Earth theory.  









						Daredevil 'Mad' Mike Hughes Killed In Crash Of Homemade Rocket
					

Mike Hughes promoted himself as believing that the Earth was flat. He launched homemade rockets with the goal of eventually flying to the edge of space to see for himself.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> So about that reopening in the states...
> 
> View attachment 121811




And this is what ""take New York out of the numbers" is about.  It is not about taking out the largest population center, it is about taking out the population center that is behaving in a significantly different manner.  

So, if you are trying to compare your own country to the US, you don't just chuck out the largest city.  You ask whether that largest population center is managing thigs better or worse than the rest of the nation.

And, the weird thing for the US is... while NYC is providing the largest number of cases, it is _performing better_, in that it is pretty clearly on the road to recovery, when other places aren't.


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> At least one dude has _died_ (in a self-made steam-powered rocket) over flat Earth theory.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Daredevil 'Mad' Mike Hughes Killed In Crash Of Homemade Rocket
> 
> 
> Mike Hughes promoted himself as believing that the Earth was flat. He launched homemade rockets with the goal of eventually flying to the edge of space to see for himself.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org



That's different. He was a daredevil that had rocketry as his hobby of choice. He wasn't a flat earther. He conned flat earthers out of their money to finance his increasingly more expensive home-made rockets.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

What is wrong with us?








						New Yahoo News/YouGov coronavirus poll: Almost 1 in 5 say they won't get vaccinated
					

Asked whether they plan to get vaccinated against COVID-19 if and when a vaccine arrives, a majority of Americans say yes. But a significant minority say they won’t get vaccinated or they’re not sure. And that, more than anything else, is what the Yahoo News/YouGov poll found — that Americans...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Istbor

Dannyalcatraz said:


> What is wrong with us?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Yahoo News/YouGov coronavirus poll: Almost 1 in 5 say they won't get vaccinated
> 
> 
> Asked whether they plan to get vaccinated against COVID-19 if and when a vaccine arrives, a majority of Americans say yes. But a significant minority say they won’t get vaccinated or they’re not sure. And that, more than anything else, is what the Yahoo News/YouGov poll found — that Americans...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



That isn't surprising. If people think they can tough it out, either through being young and healthy, already having had it, or are an anti-vaccination proponent.

All of those combined becomes a decent sized group of people. The question is, are they right to feel this way? (probably not in the antivaxxers case)

Random question to keep us sane, how do you feel about Science-Fantasy? I am thinking pretty hard about my new campaign being developed while in lockdown as stemming off of this style.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> That isn't surprising. If people think they can tough it out, either through being young and healthy, already having had it, or are an anti-vaccination proponent.
> 
> All of those combined becomes a decent sized group of people. The question is, are they right to feel this way? (probably not in the antivaxxers case)




"I can tough it out because I am young and healthy," is equivalent to, "I don't care if I happen to pass it to someone else, and they die."  So, that's not really a solid position to take.


----------



## Istbor

Umbran said:


> "I can tough it out because I am young and healthy," is equivalent to, "I don't care if I happen to pass it to someone else, and they die."  So, that's not really a solid position to take.



Oh no, I agree. For that matter, we don't know that catching it brings long term immunity either. Or if it did, that it would also mean you aren't contagious if it is attempting to infect you again. 

I can understand that people would think that way is all.


----------



## Zardnaar

This article is decent with various curves from countries that have squashed Covid.









						Coronavirus: The story of New Zealand’s Covid-19 lockdown, in graphs
					

How we vanquished the virus - but we’re not as unique as we thought



					interactives.stuff.co.nz
				




  Early in our curve was the same as everyone else's. But there's a few other countries no one pays attention to like Croatia. South Korea an obvious one with a population similar to a lot of European countries


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Istbor said:


> This happened.
> President Trump's Personal Valet Tests Positive for Coronavirus



This really surprises me. Not the fact that he has it, but the fact that Trump didn't get it. He didn't wear a mask, would feed Trump his meals, and was essentially Trump's Charlie (you know, from the West Wing), and Trump somehow did not get Coronavirus.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Istbor said:


> That isn't surprising. If people think they can tough it out, either through being young and healthy, already having had it, or are an anti-vaccination proponent.
> 
> All of those combined becomes a decent sized group of people. The question is, are they right to feel this way? (probably not in the antivaxxers case)
> 
> Random question to keep us sane, how do you feel about Science-Fantasy? I am thinking pretty hard about my new campaign being developed while in lockdown as stemming off of this style.



Yes, just because you think that you're immune to it (you're really not) doesn't mean that by going outside you're not killing people! In Italy, people who violated stay at home orders were charged with manslaughter if they were tested positive for Covid-19. We should 100% have something like that in every country.

They're not right to feel that they have the right to go outside. People don't understand that in the US your rights are free to be used as yours until the encroach on another person's rights. Going outside and possibly causing deaths is where you should draw the line. You have a freedom of speech until your speech gets people killed.


----------



## Istbor

AcererakTriple6 said:


> This really surprises me. Not the fact that he has it, but the fact that Trump didn't get it. He didn't wear a mask, would feed Trump his meals, and was essentially Trump's Charlie (you know, from the West Wing), and Trump somehow did not get Coronavirus.



And as well, one of Pence's aids tested positive today. Though not a personal valet. Katie Miller, who definitely (well hopefully) had close contact with Stephen Miller. If there isn't an outbreak there, I will be frankly surprised.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> What is wrong with us?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Yahoo News/YouGov coronavirus poll: Almost 1 in 5 say they won't get vaccinated
> 
> 
> Asked whether they plan to get vaccinated against COVID-19 if and when a vaccine arrives, a majority of Americans say yes. But a significant minority say they won’t get vaccinated or they’re not sure. And that, more than anything else, is what the Yahoo News/YouGov poll found — that Americans...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



There is nothing "wrong" with not wanting to pay for a shot that will accomplish the same thing you achieved the hard way (by getting REALLY sick) for free.  Especially if you have missed two months' pay and counting, and got no money to pay with.

Ask that same poll when people are back working and feel confident about their finances again; the answers will change.
(The answers will also change if the price runs $10 or $150 each, is covered by insurance or not.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Shots are free here, getting flu one on Wednesday. 

 But yeah it's easy to say stay at home if you can afford to. On other forums some are facing homelessness on the streets during a pandemic.

 I have a literal pile of supplies and even in a worst case scenario won't be on the streets in lockdown.

IIRC something like half the USA has around 3 weeks reserve. 

 Lose house vs risk catching Covid.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yes, just because you think that you're immune to it (you're really not) doesn't mean that by going outside you're not killing people! In Italy, people who violated stay at home orders were charged with manslaughter if they were tested positive for Covid-19. We should 100% have something like that in every country.
> 
> They're not right to feel that they have the right to go outside. People don't understand that in the US your rights are free to be used as yours until the encroach on another person's rights. Going outside and possibly causing deaths is where you should draw the line. You have a freedom of speech until your speech gets people killed.



You actually CAN be charged with a crime if you knowingly violate public health ordinances dealing with a disease you have.  Details and penalties vary from state to state, ranging from fines to imprisonment to institutionalization.

Remember, Mary Mallon- aka Typhoid Mary- lived the last 30 years of her life in an island hospital because she had the disease yet wouldn’t stop taking jobs as a nanny/housemaid, in a time when there was no treatment for typhus.

And knowingly having promiscuous unprotected sex after a HIV diagnosis has been used as an aggravating factor in more than one case.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Istbor said:


> Random question to keep us sane, how do you feel about Science-Fantasy? I am thinking pretty hard about my new campaign being developed while in lockdown as stemming off of this style.



Sci-fant is cool in MY book.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> You actually CAN be charged with a crime if you knowingly violate public health ordinances dealing with a disease you have. Details and penalties vary from state to state, ranging from fines to imprisonment to institutionalization.



Yes, it seems like every day we're hearing about another person (barber, pastor) from Texas that's arrested for violating the lockdown, but that's the thing. It's not nationwide. The punishment varies. Federalism falls apart immediately when a pandemic starts, because there should not be different punishments for violating the lockdown in different states. Catching/Spreading coronavirus in different states is not different! It's not the kind of thing that different states should have different policies for, in the case of breaking the lockdown. 

Also, the government knows we need more testing. We need a massive amount of testing. The national government wants us to risk our lives and our health to save the economy, without making sure we can do it safely. If everyone in the government gets testing, we should too.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Federalism falls apart immediately when a pandemic starts, because there should not be different punishments for violating the lockdown in different states.




With respect, no.  Different places are, in fact, different.  You can be outside without a mask in Montana for hours and not see another living soul.  Impossible to do in NYC in the middle of the day.


----------



## MoonSong

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Also, the government knows we need more testing. We need a massive amount of testing. The national government wants us to risk our lives and our health to save the economy, without making sure we can do it safely. If everyone in the government gets testing, we should too.



At least you aren't in the country with the least testing per capita of the OECD. (.1 per thousand people)


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yes, just because you think that you're immune to it (you're really not) doesn't mean that by going outside you're not killing people!




Um... that's not really accurate.  "Going outside" is not that big a deal.  Going _inside_, with people, is the danger.

To borrow from a blog post I came across today:

_"The main sources for infection are home, workplace, public transport, social gatherings, and restaurants. This accounts for 90% of all transmission events. In contrast, infections while shopping appear to be responsible for 3-5% of infections. 

Importantly, of the countries performing contact tracing properly, only a single outbreak has been reported from an outdoor environment (less than 0.3% of traced infections). "_

I present this an an excerpt from a blog post, not an authoritative article.  However, the point is pretty obvious: places where people breathe, speak, shout, sing - where they _exhale a lot_ and linger for long times - that are indoors to keep droplets full of virus hanging around, are the dangerous places.

Outside, in and of itself, is one of the safest places to be - there is so much more air circulation, that droplets are not concentrated enough for you to get enough of them to get sick.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Um... that's not really accurate.  "Going outside" is not that big a deal.  Go8ng _inside_, with people, is the danger.
> 
> To borrow from a blog post I came across today:
> 
> _"The main sources for infection are home, workplace, public transport, social gatherings, and restaurants. This accounts for 90% of all transmission events. In contrast, infections while shopping appear to be responsible for 3-5% of infections.
> 
> Importantly, of the countries performing contact tracing properly, only a single outbreak has been reported from an outdoor environment (less than 0.3% of traced infections). "_
> 
> I present this an an excerpt from a blog post, not an authoritative article.  However, the point is pretty obvious: places where people breathe, speak, shout, sing - where they _exhale a lot_ and linger for long times - that are indoors to keep droplets full of virus hanging around are the dangerous places.
> 
> Outside, in and of itself, is one of the safest places to be - there is so much more air circulation, that droplets are not concentrate enough for you to get enough of them to get sick.



Most of the articles I’ve seen talking about it are zeroing in on interior spaces with worse than average ventilation.

Which, given what Covid-19 is, is not a big surprise.

If that sounds like a point for people who want to reopen beaches, parks and the like, it is.  But there’s a HUGE caveat: you’d still need to maintain social distances to minimize risk from coughing and sneezing.  And so far, people in those spaces are being very inconsistent about that.  Given the inch, they take the mile.  And so far, no city or state has the resources to actually enforce those rules while doing all their other duties.

IOW, while going out on a beach or a park is relatively safe and could do some people a real benefit to their physical AND mental health, too many have abused the privilege for that to be allowed on an honor system.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> If that sounds like a point for people who want to reopen beaches, parks and the like, it is.  But there’s a HUGE caveat: you’d still need to maintain social distances to minimize risk from coughing and sneezing.  And so far, people in those spaces are being very inconsistent about that.  Given the inch, they take the mile.




Yeah.  No crowd is safe at all, inside or out.


----------



## Zardnaar

We're allowed outside but supposed to stay in our own suburbs. 

 Not many wearing masks even weeks ago. Couldn't buy them. 

 People quite good at crossing the road to avoid you though.

 Swedish experiment not doing so good.


----------



## Hussar

Ah for goodness sakes:



			Pachinko: 9 parlors reopen in Tokyo, Osaka
		


Pachinko parlours here are reopening.  For those who have never had the experience, imagine a space about the size of a basketball court, jammed as tightly as it can be with slot machines that pay out in little silver balls that you can then turn back in for prizes.  But, apparently, it's not gambling.    Because that would be illegal in this country.  

Good grief.


----------



## Olrox17

Umbran said:


> Um... that's not really accurate.  "Going outside" is not that big a deal.  Go8ng _inside_, with people, is the danger.
> 
> To borrow from a blog post I came across today:
> 
> _"The main sources for infection are home, workplace, public transport, social gatherings, and restaurants. This accounts for 90% of all transmission events. In contrast, infections while shopping appear to be responsible for 3-5% of infections.
> 
> Importantly, of the countries performing contact tracing properly, only a single outbreak has been reported from an outdoor environment (less than 0.3% of traced infections). "_
> 
> I present this an an excerpt from a blog post, not an authoritative article.  However, the point is pretty obvious: places where people breathe, speak, shout, sing - where they _exhale a lot_ and linger for long times - that are indoors to keep droplets full of virus hanging around are the dangerous places.
> 
> Outside, in and of itself, is one of the safest places to be - there is so much more air circulation, that droplets are not concentrate enough for you to get enough of them to get sick.



Just had a thought. Elevators can be absolute killers. And who’s more likely to take the elevator instead of walking a few flight of stairs? Older people. The ones more at risk of dying from covid.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’ma wait another few *weeks* before I even *THINK *about _trying_ to get a haircut.








						4 states that are reopening — Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Colorado — are not conducting enough coronavirus tests to safely do so, Harvard researchers say
					

The US needs to ramp up testing by nearly 400% in the next week, at a bare minimum, to even think about slowly reopening.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

Olrox17 said:


> Just had a thought. Elevators can be absolute killers




Oh, yeah.  You _might_ be able to get two people in a large elevator 6' apart....



> And who’s more likely to take the elevator instead of walking a few flight of stairs?




A few flights?  Dude, in a city, the buildings are dozens of stories tall.  So try 13, or 20, or 30 flights....

So, one major point of discussion for cities is how do you get people into and out of your building in a safe way.


----------



## Fenris-77

Umbran said:


> Oh, yeah.  You _might_ be able to get two people in a large elevator 6' apart....
> 
> A few flights?  Dude, in a city, the buildings are dozens of stories tall.  So try 13, or 20, or 30 flights....
> 
> So, one major point of discussion for cities is how do you get people into and out of your building in a safe way.



It's a little dissociative how this whole situation has made the previously trivial into things of vital importance.


----------



## Olrox17

Umbran said:


> Oh, yeah.  You _might_ be able to get two people in a large elevator 6' apart....
> 
> 
> 
> A few flights?  Dude, in a city, the buildings are dozens of stories tall.  So try 13, or 20, or 30 flights....
> 
> So, one major point of discussion for cities is how do you get people into and out of your building in a safe way.



Very tall buildings aren’t really widespread in my country, but I’ve been to New York, so yeah, I see what you mean.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> A few flights?  Dude, in a city, the buildings are dozens of stories tall.  So try 13, or 20, or 30 flights....
> 
> So, one major point of discussion for cities is how do you get people into and out of your building in a safe way.



Part of that problem is very American.  When I visited Moscow a while back, I found out that they use elevators a lot less than we do.  A LOT less.

After the Fedoskina (Russian lacquer box) factory tour started by walking up to the 5th floor, several members of my group were asking our guide why we didn’t take the elevator.  There wasn’t one.

In fact, he added, many apartment buildings as high as 20 stories didn’t have elevators for anything but freight- tenants couldn’t use them without the assistance of a building employee.

Sobering, to say the least.


----------



## MoonSong

The underreport of the underreport got underreported. Or how my country's official death toll is half to one third of what the states register, and that isn't even taking into account people who die at home or in transit while looking for a hospital that isn't saturated. Local hospitals are filled to the brim. 








						Cifras ocultas: México desatiende ola de muertes en la capital (Published 2020)
					

Según un análisis hecho por el Times, la cifra de personas que pudieron haber muerto de la COVID-19 en Ciudad de México es más de tres veces la que muestran las cifras federales.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sobering, to say the least.




I am not sure that, "an economy poorly managed for decades failed to make buildings well-designed for humans," is all that sobering a thought.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well things like yeast and hand sanitizer are turning back up. All the supermarket staff have masks, very few customers wearing them. 

 No new local cases for 21 days iirc. Social distancing was decent all things considered. Still only letting a few in at a time.

 Bare essentials. 






 Almost beer o clock and I've got some blood in my alcohol stream. Normally drink about a dozen a month almost weekly in lockdown.

 Czech style pilsner, brewed in Russia by a Danish company, bought in New Zealand.


----------



## Zardnaar

Meanwhile in the USSR VE day. No lockdowns the KGB scared off Covid. 

  World of Tanks the LARP. T-34's in 2020. 



 Even Russia cancelled the parades.


----------



## Azzy

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’ma wait another few *weeks* before I even *THINK *about _trying_ to get a haircut.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 4 states that are reopening — Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Colorado — are not conducting enough coronavirus tests to safely do so, Harvard researchers say
> 
> 
> The US needs to ramp up testing by nearly 400% in the next week, at a bare minimum, to even think about slowly reopening.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




Yeah, it's things like this that make my cynical side tell me I should listen to it all the time.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I am not sure that, "an economy poorly managed for decades failed to make buildings well-designed for humans," is all that sobering a thought.



Sobering in the sense of “How’d you like to do a grocery run for your 20-story walk-up.” sense.  See also taking your dog walkies, late night at the bar, and other scenarios.

I liked some of what I saw in Moscow & St Petersburg, but *that* quashed any notions of staying there long term.


----------



## Hussar

Over a week with no new cases in my ken (province) which feels like good news.  The numbers look like Japan is over the hump.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’ma wait another few *weeks* before I even *THINK *about _trying_ to get a haircut.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 4 states that are reopening — Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Colorado — are not conducting enough coronavirus tests to safely do so, Harvard researchers say
> 
> 
> The US needs to ramp up testing by nearly 400% in the next week, at a bare minimum, to even think about slowly reopening.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



I'm looking for a barber that is making appointments not taking walk-ins.
Before I decide to cut my own hair and end up having to wear a "mask" that covers everything from the neck up.

On the plus side, when I do finally get a haircut I will lose 5 lbs in an hour - without having to go on a diet.


----------



## Fenris-77

I can't fathom the difficulty of a 20 story ascent after a long night at the pub. That, right there, is the stuff of nightmares.


----------



## ccs

Talk about failing that persuasion roll....

_"White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany also backed the administration’s response, saying, “President Trump is committed to a data-driven approach to safely reopening the country. His steadfast leadership has saved American lives, and the American people recognize his leadership.”_ 

Taken from As deaths mount, Trump tries to convince Americans it’s safe to inch back to normal


----------



## Eltab

ccs said:


> - clip -



The local Red Inks are doubtless making a Perception roll against your Stealth Check.


----------



## Zardnaar

Fenris-77 said:


> I can't fathom the difficulty of a 20 story ascent after a long night at the pub. That, right there, is the stuff of nightmares.




 Well most of the old Soviet era apartments are 5 or 9 stories. New ones are talker but it's funny if they don't have lifts. 

 High density apartments don't really exist here. I think in my local the tallest building is 10 stories and it's office space. 

 Whole country is basically a farm, suburb or nature park.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Well most of the old Soviet era apartments are 5 or 9 stories. New ones are talker but it's funny if they don't have lifts.
> 
> High density apartments don't really exist here. I think in my local the tallest building is 10 stories and it's office space.
> 
> Whole country is basically a farm, suburb or nature park.




Makes sense.  You want to keep your sheep as close to the ground as possible.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Makes sense.  You want to keep your sheep as close to the ground as possible.




 Exactly.  Baaaaaa.


----------



## ad_hoc

More of this happening.

I'm not sure if this is just the news but from an outsider it looks like America is unraveling (more than usual).

Things are not going to be good when they get their resurgence in cases. Florida and Texas are the places to watch right now, if they become the next epicenter I think they're going to be in big trouble.









						Woman upset at McDonalds closed dining area shoots at employees, injuring four
					

OKLAHOMA CITY (KOKH) - UPDATE: Police have identified a single suspect, Gloricia Woody, who was forced out of the restaurant by employees. Reports say Woody reentered the restaurant and punched an employee, who sustained a head injury. Police say Woody then fired three rounds from a handgun in...




					ktul.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Closer to my home...




__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com
				




Note: There’s an opening at Thompson & Knight!


----------



## Umbran

ccs said:


> Talk about failing that persuasion roll....
> 
> _"White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany also backed the administration’s response..._




*Mod Note:*

And... failed stealth check!

The subject matter of this thread is important, and complex.  So, the line between what's reasonable and not can be blurry.  But, I'm sorry, this was on the wrong side of it.  This is just plain old political commentary.

And, since repeatedly telling folks "Don't do that" does not seem to work...

@ccs , you will find that, for the next week, you won't be able to post in this thread.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Makes sense.  You want to keep your sheep as close to the ground as possible.






Zardnaar said:


> Exactly.  Baaaaaa.




Guys.  That's enough.  Thanks.


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> Guys.  That's enough.  Thanks.



Sorry, was just trying to inject a little levity.  ((Makes Saving throw vs Posting More Sheep related puns and jokes.))


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Sorry, was just trying to inject a little levity.  ((Makes Saving throw vs Posting More Sheep related puns and jokes.))




 I got used to those puns around 1999 online.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

TJ Maxx in Arkansas






Coffee shop in Colorado





Second wave of Covid-19 begins in 10...9...8...


----------



## Zardnaar

Cases rising in China









						Home - BBC News
					

Visit BBC News for up-to-the-minute news, breaking news, video, audio and feature stories. BBC News provides trusted World and UK news as well as local and regional perspectives. Also entertainment, business, science, technology and health news.




					www.bbc.com
				




 Also another cluster in South Korea


----------



## Zardnaar

Boring type stuff here. Not convinced it's 100% a good idea but our recovered are around 95% and 2 new cases a day seems to be the default.

 Boring type stuff.








						Covid-19: PM Jacinda Ardern reveals staggered move to alert level 2
					

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced a staggered move into level 2 starting on Thursday, with schools and bars reopening later and groups limited to 10 people.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Imaculata

Dannyalcatraz said:


> TJ Maxx in Arkansas
> 
> Coffee shop in Colorado
> 
> Second wave of Covid-19 begins in 10...9...8...




What is wrong with these people? It isn't over yet. We haven't even reached the peak of the epidemic in the USA. Is it worth your life, and the lives of many others, just to get a coffee or some discount clothes?


----------



## Hussar

People just don't believe.  It's that simple.  Decades of popular culture telling everyone that scientists are stupid and experts are idiots has left us with a large swath of the population that just cannot fathom that people know what they are talking about.


----------



## Istbor

Not to mention the Us VS Them political culture that is ever increasing in the USA.

People will just dismiss outright something they sniff as even a little bit aligned with a particular party. That sort of nature is going to come to a head at some point, and perhaps this is it. 

I can't really say much more on it without angering EnWorld Mods so I won't.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

I have a bad feeling about this...


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Ugh. This thing is never going to end.


----------



## Istbor

It is possible that this will be protracted. 

I do feel that our patchwork response in the States at least, may lead to this being an uglier summer. I can at least say that I am very tired of the increase in work that is to be done. Regardless of how well my company is doing during the crisis.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Over the past day or so, I’ve been reading about how uncivilly people have been behaving in various recently reopened food establishments here in the USA.  An ice cream parlor that closed after 1 day (re-reopening a few days later after the loutishness made the news); an Olive Garden besieged on Mother’s Day, etc.

And then this:








						Mark Cuban Hired Secret Shoppers to Evaluate Reopening Businesses and the Results Were Not Good
					

Only 4 percent of businesses were fully compliant.




					www.yahoo.com
				




Yeah, staying home for the near future...


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Over the past day or so, I’ve been reading about how uncivilly people have been behaving in various recently reopened food establishments here in the USA.  An ice cream parlor that closed after 1 day (re-reopening a few days later after the loutishness made the news); an Olive Garden besieged on Mother’s Day, etc.
> 
> And then this:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mark Cuban Hired Secret Shoppers to Evaluate Reopening Businesses and the Results Were Not Good
> 
> 
> Only 4 percent of businesses were fully compliant.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah, staying home for the near future...




Following that link I found this gem of good business.

"Employees at the Dallas locations said management told them that face masks don't fit the restaurant's hospitality mold. "









						Employees at reopened Texas restaurants say managers forbade them from wearing protective masks at work
					

Staff from Hillstone Restaurant Group establishments in Dallas, Texas, said that as locations reopened, they were told to take off their masks.




					www.yahoo.com
				




Yes, killing your customers is a great strategy.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Ugh. This thing is never going to end.



This will not end. 1 in 5 Americans won't get a coronavirus vaccine. If 20% of the population isn't going to immunize themselves to a deadly disease, herd immunity doesn't work. We need to get everyone in america to take a coronavirus vaccine that can safely take a vaccine. There are people in the country who's immune systems are too weak to get vaccines, so it is the duty of everyone else in the country to help save their lives. 

The problem with the US is that it's filled with conspiracy theorizing idiots who won't take a shot that'll save their life. It's like Moses and the staff that could've saved the lives of the people bitten by the fiery serpents. People don't like being told what to do, so they'll purposely do the opposite just because they don't want to be bossed around. 

This will not end until we can somehow force the antivaxxers to take the vaccine.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Here's a video on how we're rushing the process of making a vaccine. Rushing the Vaccine


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ad_hoc said:


> Following that link I found this gem of good business.
> 
> "Employees at the Dallas locations said management told them that face masks don't fit the restaurant's hospitality mold. "
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Employees at reopened Texas restaurants say managers forbade them from wearing protective masks at work
> 
> 
> Staff from Hillstone Restaurant Group establishments in Dallas, Texas, said that as locations reopened, they were told to take off their masks.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, killing your customers is a great strategy.



Saw that one, too.  The employees are NOT happy.


----------



## Azzy

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Saw that one, too.  The employees are NOT happy.



Texas is an anti-union state, isn't it?


----------



## MarkB

Having been re-listening-to the early Expanse audiobooks recently with their descriptions of Belter gesture-based body language due to them spending much of their time in helmets, I did wonder whether we'll start to develop alternate forms of expression to compensate for having half our face covered in public. Maybe there'll be an app for projecting a smile or frown on a smartphone, and you can hold it up over your actual mouth.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

We need a vaccine ASAP, along with some medicine that can treat coronavirus. Unfortunately, people get bored being stuck inside much quicker than it takes to find/make those things.


----------



## Nebulous

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Ugh. This thing is never going to end.



NO. It will end, it will just be a long time. Years.


----------



## Nebulous

In the meantime millions will die from disease and our economic worldwide structure will drastically change from everything we've known the past 50 years.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Nebulous said:


> NO. It will end, it will just be a long time. Years.



I am not completely convinced it will end. I mean, we'll get medicine to make it less effective, make vaccines, and mutate to possibly become less deadly against humans. Eventually it will effect less and less people each year, but millions worldwide will die and it will continue to spread through the world for as long as Americans are stupid and don't get vaccines.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Azzy said:


> Texas is an anti-union state, isn't it?



Last I checked.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Nebulous said:


> In the meantime millions will die from disease and our economic worldwide structure will drastically change from everything we've known the past 50 years.



Yes, our economy will crash worldwide, hundreds of thousands, possibly millions, will die in the United States and even more worldwide, and the world will change dramatically. People will starve. People will suffocate in their own blood. People will have severe inflammation attacks and die. It will continue killing, and most likely never be eradicated, just look at what happened with the Measles, but we must try to get rid of it.


----------



## Hussar

MarkB said:


> Having been re-listening-to the early Expanse audiobooks recently with their descriptions of Belter gesture-based body language due to them spending much of their time in helmets, I did wonder whether we'll start to develop alternate forms of expression to compensate for having half our face covered in public. Maybe there'll be an app for projecting a smile or frown on a smartphone, and you can hold it up over your actual mouth.




Well, as someone who's lived in a country where wearing masks is pretty much standard fare as soon as you so much as sniffle, I can say that, nope, it doesn't really impact expression at all.  Or, heck, there's a significant portion of the world where wearing some form of face covering for a significant chunk of the population has been standard for centuries and, again, it hasn't really impacted body language.


----------



## Zardnaar

Day whatever of lockdown in my South Pacific Police state. 2 more days of lockdown to go. 

0 cases today.









						No new cases of Covid-19 as NZ prepares to enter level 2
					

There have been no new cases of Covid-19 reported in New Zealand as the country prepares to enter alert level 2.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




By recycling bins full of beer bottles and cans. I the grand scene of things it's not a lot less than 1 bottle a day but feels bad. 

Boredom.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I am not completely convinced it will end.




So, perhaps we should take a step back for a second...

It isn't like deadly disease is new to the human race, folks.  Smallpox, polio, measles, mumps, rubella, tuberculosis, black plague, influenza, malaria, HIV... the list goes on and on.

In fact, the only two diseases we have ever successfully eradicated have been smallpox and rinderpest (a disease of cattle, not people).  So, no, this will not end, insofar as this hasn't ended for pretty much any other disease.  But somehow, we manage. 

To be honest, so far there's no specific indication that, long term, SARS-CoV-2 is going to be a particularly intractable beast.  Maybe folks are basing expectations on media, where a disease shows up and _poof!_ by the end of the episode there's a complete cure, and we despair if something magic doesn't happen in the commercial break.  But, folks, do remember - _this disease was first noted only about six months ago! _ It was noted as a new coronavirus in the first week of January, for cryin' out loud!  The fact that no miracle cure has appeared in a mere half-year is no indication at all that there will _never_ be something that does the trick.

Have a bit of patience, folks, before you throw in the towel.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> So, perhaps we should take a step back for a second...
> 
> It isn't like deadly disease is new to the human race, folks.  Smallpox, polio, measles, mumps, rubella, tuberculosis, black plague, influenza, malaria, HIV... the list goes on and on.
> 
> In fact, the only two diseases we have ever successfully eradicated have been smallpox and rinderpest (a disease of cattle, not people).  So, no, this will not end, insofar as this hasn't ended for pretty much any other disease.  But somehow, we manage.
> 
> To be honest, so far there's no specific indication that, long term, SARS-CoV-2 is going to be a particularly intractable beast.  Maybe folks are basing expectations on media, where a disease shows up and _poof!_ by the end of the episode there's a complete cure, and we despair if something magic doesn't happen in the commercial break.  But, folks, do remember - _this disease was first noted only about six months ago! _ The fact that no miracle cure has appeared in a mere half-year is no indication at all that there will _never_ be something that does the trick.
> 
> Have a bit of patience, folks, before you throw in the towel.




 Vaccines aren't 100% effective. Even other normal flu shot is something like 67% effective iirc. 

 Main benefit of lockdown seems to be buying time to get PPE and medical supplies sorted. 

 I don't think you can lock down longer than 2-3 months even in sane countries.

 There's even an element if classism to it. 

 Most jobs can't be done from home. Go broke lose house/job so the middle/upper class can hide.

 We haven't had the collapse USA has had here. It's more if a slow motion train wreck as business after business falls over.

 Longer it goes on more people will either get complacent or ignore the rules. Some won't have a choice.

 Already got online friends looking at living on the street.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Part of why the flu shot is only 67% effective is its tendency to mutate rapidly.  Thankfully, that’s not a trick Covid-19 has learned.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Part of why the flu shot is only 67% effective is its tendency to mutate rapidly.  Thankfully, that’s not a trick Covid-19 has learned.




The other part of why the flu shot is only 67% effective is because the yearly shot is a _guess_ as to which strains are going to spread worldwide.  

Comparisons of SARS-CoV-2 to influenza fall down because influenza behaves very differently from coronaviruses.  Please, folks, learn this, and stop making that comparison.  It is misleading.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Part of why the flu shot is only 67% effective is its tendency to mutate rapidly.  Thankfully, that’s not a trick Covid-19 has learned.




 True but it does mutate. Any vaccine isn't going to be 100% effective.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> It isn't like deadly disease is new to the human race, folks. Smallpox, polio, measles, mumps, rubella, tuberculosis, black plague, influenza, malaria, HIV... the list goes on and on.



It 100% isn't the first deadly disease, but there are things that set Covid-19 apart from all those other diseases. The black plague was a bacteria, which are much less contagious and much more treatable. Malaria has killed just about half of all humans that have ever lived, but is easier to treat as it cannot normally spread human-to-human. Ebola was very deadly but wasn't contagious for a long period of time, and wasn't easily spread.
There are many things that sets Covid-19 apart from all those other diseases. First, it is a coronavirus. There has never been a vaccine made for a coronavirus before that has worked. Second, it is easily spread person-to-person. Third, it is very contagious through the air. Fourth, it has never been exposed to humans before, so no one is naturally immune. Fifth and finally, it attacks the lungs and heart. They are 2 of the most important parts of the body.


Umbran said:


> In fact, the only two diseases we have ever successfully eradicated have been smallpox and rinderpest (a disease of cattle, not people). So, no, this will not end, insofar as this hasn't ended for pretty much any other disease. But somehow, we manage.



Yes, it is very hard to eradicate diseases. Measles was practically eradicated in the United States, but has reemerged when antivaxxers became common. We did eventually develop a vaccine for smallpox. (Also, did you know that both the US and Russian governments have frozen smallpox in storage?) It isn't easy to eradicate diseases, and often they do mutate to become less effective and deadly on humans, but we can't speculate on this. Back when smallpox was a problem, people understood how vaccines could save lives and happily got them when available. Unfortunately, 20% of Americans won't get a Covid-19 vaccine if given the opportunity.


Umbran said:


> To be honest, so far there's no specific indication that, long term, SARS-CoV-2 is going to be a particularly intractable beast. Maybe folks are basing expectations on media, where a disease shows up and _poof!_ by the end of the episode there's a complete cure, and we despair if something magic doesn't happen in the commercial break. But, folks, do remember - _this disease was first noted only about six months ago! _ It was noted as a new coronavirus in the first week of January, for cryin' out loud! The fact that no miracle cure has appeared in a mere half-year is no indication at all that there will _never_ be something that does the trick.



Yes, I'm sure a lot of people think that we'll just be able to miracle up a cure for coronavirus and save lives instantly. The disease has only been around for 6 months, but in that time period we've not found any treatments for it. A lot of people got their hopes up for Hydroxichloroquine, as the POTUS got anxious for a miracle-cure. I'm not saying that we won't get rid of or find a treatment for Coronavirus, but it will take awhile and there'll be stumbles on the path. 


Umbran said:


> Have a bit of patience, folks, before you throw in the towel.



Patience is the key to beating the virus. Patience while quarantining in your homes. Patience to find a cure and not rushing drugs that can kill you. Patience to find a vaccine that works. Patience to making more testing kits that actually work. We should be patient, but we should also plan ahead for future problems, which the government (at least the US government) is failing to do. They're failing to address current problems, and also causing more people to die. If we plan for the antivaxxers, we can possibly beat this.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> True but it does mutate. Any vaccine isn't going to be 100% effective.




You are correct, no vaccine will be 100% effective.  But mutation is only the reason for that in the case of fast-mutating pathogens, which SARS-CoV-2 is not.

So, let us keep this basic for the moment:  Humans vary.  Some people are taller than others. Some are lactose intolerant, others not. There's a variety of facial features in humans.  There's also a variety of immune responses.  Some people's immune systems vastly overreact to a vaccine - they are allergic.  Most people react just enough to get protection, but not so much that they hurt their own bodies.  And some people's bodies under-react, and they are not fully protected by a vaccine.

But that's okay.  This is where herd immunity finally does become relevant.  Herd immunity is not "the herd is 100% immune".  Herd immunity is "enough of the herd is immune that even if a pathogen does infect one member, the chances are that it will not run into another member it can infect before it finishes it's course in its host."  If enough of the herd is immune to bring the pathogen's R0 below 1, then there may be an isolated case now and again, massive breakouts will not be an issue, and we can largely go about our lives.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> There has never been a vaccine made for a coronavirus before that has worked.




Stop right there.   This is factually incorrect.  The veterinary world has vaccines to protect against coronaviruses that infect bovines, felines, and canines.  

And, over at Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, they've had successful phase 1 human trials of a vaccine for MERS-CoV last year. 

Coronaviruses are not some weirdly invulnerable beast.  The fact is that, before SARS and MERS, there was not much call to develop vaccines for coronaviruses that infect humans, as the worst they usually do to us is produce the common cold.  And SARS and MERS, which are deadly, largely stopped being a concern before vaccine research could finish.  

Simply put, we haven't really tried all that hard.


----------



## Istbor

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yes, it is very hard to eradicate diseases. Measles was practically eradicated in the United States, but has reemerged when antivaxxers became common. We did eventually develop a vaccine for smallpox. (Also, did you know that both the US and Russian governments have frozen smallpox in storage?) It isn't easy to eradicate diseases, and often they do mutate to become less effective and deadly on humans, but we can't speculate on this. Back when smallpox was a problem, people understood how vaccines could save lives and happily got them when available. Unfortunately, 20% of Americans won't get a Covid-19 vaccine if given the opportunity.




Whoa, I wouldn't say antivaxxers are common. They are most certainly loud. Common though? No.

We don't know what will happen if/when a vaccine for this comes out. We know some people aren't sure now. Maybe that is due to fear of it rolling out too quickly, or it being too costly on an injured economy or they think that this whole thing still isn't a big deal, and that even if they get it, it will be like a cold or flu. There is still a lot of misinformation, and just hypothesis out there. As things become more clear or certain, we may see a change in that 20%.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> Whoa, I wouldn't say antivaxxers are common. They are most certainly loud. Common though? No.




They are common enough to give us local measles outbreaks again


----------



## Istbor

Umbran said:


> They are common enough to give us local measles outbreaks again




I guess we can agree to disagree on what we individually consider common in a population of 320 million.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> I guess we can agree to disagree on what we individually consider common in a population of 320 million.




With respect, I said "common enough to have a particular effect".  Do you _disagree_ that this effect is happening?  If not, then we are not in disagreement.

Maybe you are assuming that "common enough to have this impact" _also_ means "very common in general"?  Because _I didn't say that_.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Antivaxers are common enough to cause a statistically measurable negative impact on our vaccination levels, resulting in the re-emergence of clusters of infection for diseases like measles.

That’s _problematic._


----------



## Istbor

Umbran said:


> With respect, I said "common enough to have a particular effect".  Do you _disagree_ that this effect is happening?  If not, then we are not in disagreement.
> 
> Maybe you are assuming that "common enough to have this impact" _also_ means "very common in general"?  Because _I didn't say that_.




No I am fully aware that we have had outbreaks after it was declared eliminated in the US. I happened to have mono right around the time an outbreak in my area was happening. They checked for that initially. Then thought it was strep, then called later to tell me to stop taking the antibiotics because it was mono.

I mean common in that, you can walk down the street, asking 10 individuals their stance on vaccines have have 2 or more say they think they are awful and harmful. (I fully understand that the location of this make-believe street could wildly alter the outcome.)

Maybe the movement has really exploded and I have missed it? I certainly see even that small amount is problematic.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

A Harris poll  last June found that 45% of Americans had some degree of "doubt" about vaccines. It's not necessarily full-fledged anti-vaxxery, but it's still a distressingly large amount of pseudo-skepticism nonetheless.








						45 Percent of Surveyed American Adults Doubt Vaccine Safety
					





					www.infectioncontroltoday.com


----------



## Istbor

Theo R Cwithin said:


> A Harris poll  last June found that 45% of Americans had some degree of "doubt" about vaccines. It's not necessarily full-fledged anti-vaxxery, but it's still a distressingly large amount of pseudo-skepticism nonetheless.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 45 Percent of Surveyed American Adults Doubt Vaccine Safety
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.infectioncontroltoday.com





Sure, but then this is in there. Making that title a bit, questionable.

Although 55 percent of Americans don't doubt vaccine safety, 45 percent noted at least one source that caused doubts about the safety of vaccination. The top three doubt-causing sources were online articles (16 percent), past secrets/wrongdoing by the pharmaceutical industry (16 percent) and information from medical experts (12 percent).

The survey also asked Americans to choose a statement that best represented their feelings about vaccine safety and efficacy. While the vast majority (82 percent) chose in favor of vaccines, 8 percent selected responses expressing serious doubt. An additional 9 percent said they were unsure.

Many of those that can point to something that gives them doubt about it, still seem to think that the pros outweigh the cons.


----------



## Deset Gled

Istbor said:


> The survey also asked Americans to choose a statement that best represented their feelings about vaccine safety and efficacy. While the vast majority (82 percent) chose in favor of vaccines, 8 percent selected responses expressing serious doubt. An additional 9 percent said they were unsure.




I was going to say that 82% is still way too low, and that vaccines should be as second nature to people as wearing a seat belt when they're in a car; it's so blatantly easy and important that you should do both without any doubt whatsoever.

Then I did a quick google and learned that about 15% of people don't normally wear seat belts.  

I believe it was George Carlin who said "Think about how stupid the average person is, and they realize half of them are stupider than that."  And Ron White who said "You can't fix stupid".


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Stop right there.   This is factually incorrect.  The veterinary world has vaccines to protect against coronaviruses that infect bovines, felines, and canines.
> 
> And, over at Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, they've had successful phase 1 human trials of a vaccine for MERS-CoV last year.
> 
> Coronaviruses are not some weirdly invulnerable beast.  The fact is that, before SARS and MERS, there was not much call to develop vaccines for coronaviruses that infect humans, as the worst they usually do to us is produce the common cold.  And SARS and MERS, which are deadly, largely stopped being a concern before vaccine research could finish.
> 
> Simply put, we haven't really tried all that hard.



Yes, we haven't really had to try hard before to make one. Sorry I miststated that. I believe a correct revision of my statement would be: "We have never made a safe, successful vaccine for a human-effecting coronavirus. We haven't really had to try that hard before."
Here's an article on this topic, it's about a month old, but still contains relevant information: We've never made a successful vaccine for a coronavirus before. This is why it's so difficult - ABC News


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Here's another article about the percentage of Americans that are antivaxxers/don't trust the safety of vaccines: 


			https://www.washingtonpost.com/


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Even if about 10% of Americans don't get a Covid-19 vaccine, (which current estimates say 20% won't), then in America that's about 33 million people that won't get a vaccine. (66 million in the 20% scenario)

That's nowhere close enough to beat Coronavirus. If between 1 in 10 to 1 in 5 people don't get the vaccine once we have it, Coronavirus isn't going away, especially if we open up schools again. 

My guess is that if we get a working Covid-19 vaccine that we will have to force everyone to either isolate until we've beaten it or take the vaccine. We're not beating it unless we all want to and work together to beat it.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> Maybe the movement has really exploded and I have missed it?




I don't claim to know.  I merely say it is enough to have problematic results.  The absolute numbers, or even percentage of the population, is less an issue than their results on public health.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> I don't claim to know.  I merely say it is enough to have problematic results.  The absolute numbers, or even percentage of the population, is less an issue than their results on public health.



Yes, the exact numbers don't necessarily matter as long as we know the effect it will have on our response to Covid-19. It certainly helps to know how many people won't take a vaccine or don't trust them, but what truly matters is how many people will die if we can't beat the virus.


----------



## Zardnaar

Wife got a flu shot yesterday, I'm getting one today as the doctor offered it for free.

There's a driveway near the doctors and they've set up a drive/walk through. Lockdown ends tomorrow doh.

Covid send extinct locally at least. No new cases for almost a month.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well went to get the ye olde flu shot.

Under normal circumstances this would likely give the health department kittens.

They converted an old garage into a drive through flu jab.






I had the sit down option. Combined it with exercise for a 5km walk.




  Sit in corner option, nurse comes along in PPE and gives you the shot.

Two days in a row no new cases.








						RNZ - NZ News, Current Affairs, Audio On Demand
					

New Zealand's public broadcaster, providing comprehensive NZ news and current affairs, specialist audio features and documentaries.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




4 days total no new cases. Nurse said none locally for 24 days. 93% recovery rate.

South Pacific Police State lockdown ends tomorrow.


----------



## Deset Gled

Deset Gled said:


> I was going to say that 82% is still way too low, and that vaccines should be as second nature to people as wearing a seat belt when they're in a car; it's so blatantly easy and important that you should do both without any doubt whatsoever.
> 
> Then I did a quick google and learned that about 15% of people don't normally wear seat belts.




To continue this conversation with myself, the most recent XKCD seems to directly address this subject:


----------



## Janx

This article crossed my desk about how the populace handled a quake in Alaska vs. how the authorities thought they would handle it:








						Elite Panic vs. the Resilient Populace
					

North America’s strongest recorded earthquake struck just off the Alaskan coast at 5:36 p.m., on March 27, 1964. The shaking from the magnitude 9.2 quake lasted an unimaginable four and




					www.commentarymagazine.com
				




Add to that, part of an interview I heard on NPR's 1A today.  They pointed out that shaming doesn't work (science proved that) so calling people out for not wearing masks or going to the beach wasn't helpful.  And that all or nothing advice like abstinence or stay home completely doesn't work and that they should have come up with guidance that accommodated people taking some risks (like go meet Gramma outdoors and stay six feet apart).


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> They pointed out that shaming doesn't work (science proved that) so calling people out for not wearing masks or going to the beach wasn't helpful.




Direct shaming does not work well outside your own social group - they have to care about what you think in the first place for shaming to be effective.  That either means they know/care about you, or it has to be on a colossal scale of overall public relations, which only famous people and corporate entities typically care about.



> And that all or nothing advice like abstinence or stay home completely doesn't work and that they should have come up with guidance that accommodated people taking some risks




Well, there you run into the fact that the "some risks" are likely too many to flatten the curve.  There are times when reality does not bend to petty human concerns.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> Well, there you run into the fact that the "some risks" are likely too many to flatten the curve.  There are times when reality does not bend to petty human concerns.




I think given that actual people have sex despite being taught abstinence, and that actual people went to actual stores without masks (with their whole family half the time), a guidance that lightened up from "stay home or die" to "fine, wear a mask if you go out, and try to keep it brief, infrequent and distant."

We got people in my county arguing that the county judge had no right to issue an order for people to wear masks or be fined and that all the cops were saying, "yeah, we're not gonna enforce that"

Which loops back to the first article. How they enlisted the public's help and the messaging affects the response.  To my view, the whole social distancing/flatten the curve banked on the idea that there were going to be rule-breakers. It was never realistic to expect 100% compliance.  But getting more people than normal to be careful is what flattens the curve, not crushed it.


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> I think given that actual people have sex despite being taught abstinence, and that actual people went to actual stores without masks (with their whole family half the time), a guidance that lightened up from "stay home or die" to "fine, wear a mask if you go out, and try to keep it brief, infrequent and distant."




So, here you go.  Find and cite an instance of official guidance that said "stay home or die" in the US.  Please.

The guidance Zardnaar had was more stingent than anywhere in the US.  And by his report, folks basically hewed to it, and it worked (He can correct me if that's inaccurate).  In the US, official guidance has been to keep unessential businesses closed, not get to gather in large groups, keep social distance, wear masks, minimize your outings when you can, and so on.  

Consider this - if the public transportation system in the locality is still running, the official guidance is not "stay home or die".  

This discussion of the guidance will not be constructive if the guidance is not described accurately.  Hyperbole is exactly what we do not need to understand the dynamic between people and guidance.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> So, here you go.  Find and cite an instance of official guidance that said "stay home or die" in the US.  Please.



dude, I was being hyperbolic.  It's pretty obvious.

The point is, experts are now talking about how not presenting other options to reduce the risk added to quarrantine fatigue (which they mentioned the Atlantic article, here it is):








						Quarantine Fatigue Is Real
					

Instead of an all-or-nothing approach to risk prevention, Americans need a manual on how to have a life in a pandemic.




					www.theatlantic.com
				




I cannot find a link to the 1A interview or I'd include that which would better explain a concept which I can't seem to convey to you. My fault.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Part of the problem in the USA is that we are a strongly individualistic culture, with a relatively low level of trust in government.  Those were factors epidemiologists noted in particular boded ill for how America would fare in the pandemic.  (I posted a link about that in some of my earliest posts in this thread.)

Simply put, American culture itself undermines some of the strategies that have proven effective in other countries.


----------



## Eltab

Theo R Cwithin said:


> A Harris poll  last June found that 45% of Americans had some degree of "doubt" about vaccines. It's not necessarily full-fledged anti-vaxxery, but it's still a distressingly large amount of pseudo-skepticism nonetheless.



I think the problems with the flu vaccine (trying to hit 5 strains with one bullet, picking the wrong strain, ran out of supply one year) are giving other vaccines a bad rep by association.  
The shots I got as a child were known to work and to keep you healthy, not be a best-guess.

My kids started school as the chickenpox vaccine came available.  I'm not enthused _to push everybody_ to get one, because I know from personal experience there is a workable (but unpleasant) alternative.  But I also won't give anybody grief for putting that in their battery of standard "get my kids ready for school" shots.  It's been long enough since introduction that we know the chickenpox shot works and keeps you healthy.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> So, here you go.  Find and cite an instance of official guidance that said "stay home or die" in the US.  Please.
> 
> The guidance Zardnaar had was more stingent than anywhere in the US.  And by his report, folks basically hewed to it, and it worked (He can correct me if that's inaccurate).  In the US, official guidance has been to keep unessential businesses closed, not get to gather in large groups, keep social distance, wear masks, minimize your outings when you can, and so on.
> 
> Consider this - if the public transportation system in the locality is still running, the official guidance is not "stay home or die".
> 
> This discussion of the guidance will not be constructive if the guidance is not described accurately.  Hyperbole is exactly what we do not need to understand the dynamic between people and guidance.




Jacinda invoked the war years, her public support us through the roof and her and/or the director general of health have been giving daily briefings.

They assumed there would be some rule breakers.

Even here there's a limit. You can order people not to smoke pot but they're still gonna do it.

It's still not 100% what they did was legal but they can sort that out later. The courts were mostly closed anyway. Cultures also different here as well. Very broadly speaking there's traits I notice a lot more in Americans, NW Europeans and say eastern Europe.

One of my best friends is American. He jokes every NZ male knows how to play rugby, perform the haka and drive a forklift.

Well Jacindas the rugby captain and seems to know what she's on about so it pays to listen. The cops were also strict on things. Business fails to comply it just gets shut down.

 Also huge social pressure on the rule breakers.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Eltab said:


> I think the problems with the flu vaccine (trying to hit 5 strains with one bullet, picking the wrong strain, ran out of supply one year) are giving other vaccines a bad rep by association.
> The shots I got as a child were known to work and to keep you healthy, not be a best-guess.
> 
> My kids started school as the chickenpox vaccine came available.  I'm not enthused _to push everybody_ to get one, because I know from personal experience there is a workable (but unpleasant) alternative.  But I also won't give anybody grief for putting that in their battery of standard "get my kids ready for school" shots.  It's been long enough since introduction that we know the chickenpox shot works and keeps you healthy.



I think a lot of the people who don't trust flu vaccines are people who were like "I got the flu shot one year, and still got the flu! What gives?!?!"
I've encountered many people like that who don't truly understand how vaccines or the flu works. The problem with those polls is that they don't actually measure how many people are truly antivaxxers, instead of people who are just unsure about how flu shots work.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

The news hub
					

L’AFP est une agence d’information globale, assurant une couverture rapide, complète et vérifiée des événements de l’actualité comme des thèmes qui façonnent notre quotidien. Avec un réseau de journalistes sans égal, déployé sur 151 pays, l'AFP est en outre un leader mondial de l’investigation nu...




					www.afp.com
				




WHO has said Covid-19 may never go away. We can't predict the future, it may just mutate itself out of existence, but we need to prepare for the worst case scenario.


----------



## Deset Gled

AcererakTriple6 said:


> The news hub
> 
> 
> L’AFP est une agence d’information globale, assurant une couverture rapide, complète et vérifiée des événements de l’actualité comme des thèmes qui façonnent notre quotidien. Avec un réseau de journalistes sans égal, déployé sur 151 pays, l'AFP est en outre un leader mondial de l’investigation nu...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.afp.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WHO has said Covid-19 may never go away. We can't predict the future, it may just mutate itself out of existence, but we need to prepare for the worst case scenario.




That's not as dire as it sounds. At its peak tuberculosis caused roughly 25% of urban deaths. It's never gone away either, and it's something we still actively monitor for. But it's well managed and not something we panic about.


----------



## ad_hoc

The largest outbreaks in the US are now in places who vote heavily Republican.









						New US coronavirus hotspots appear in Republican heartlands
					

Surge in infections in red state towns and rural communities as rise in cases contradicts Trump assertion of rapid decline




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> The largest outbreaks in the US are now in places who vote heavily Republican.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New US coronavirus hotspots appear in Republican heartlands
> 
> 
> Surge in infections in red state towns and rural communities as rise in cases contradicts Trump assertion of rapid decline
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com



I know. My city is one of those areas. We're one of the worst breakouts on all of the West Coast of America.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Deset Gled said:


> That's not as dire as it sounds. At its peak tuberculosis caused roughly 25% of urban deaths. It's never gone away either, and it's something we still actively monitor for. But it's well managed and not something we panic about.



It really depends. We can't make guesses on other diseases' behaviors. Very different cases. We 100% shouldn't panic, some of us are way too scared by our media, but some of us are not scared enough, which is evident by the fact that there are protests going on against the lockdown, and people who think Coronavirus was made by Bill Gates. 

So, yes, don't freak out everyone. That won't help anything, but know that it is a problem and we have to do all that we can to beat this thing.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> The news hub
> 
> 
> L’AFP est une agence d’information globale, assurant une couverture rapide, complète et vérifiée des événements de l’actualité comme des thèmes qui façonnent notre quotidien. Avec un réseau de journalistes sans égal, déployé sur 151 pays, l'AFP est en outre un leader mondial de l’investigation nu...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.afp.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WHO has said Covid-19 may never go away. We can't predict the future, it may just mutate itself out of existence, but we need to prepare for the worst case scenario.



As the saying goes, ”If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.”


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> As the saying goes, ”If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.”



Exactly. 








						WaPo: Trump allegedly asked Fauci if officials could let coronavirus ‘wash over’ US
					

President Trump reportedly asked Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert and a key member of the White House’s coronavirus task force, whether U.S. officials could allow the c…




					thehill.com


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Exactly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WaPo: Trump allegedly asked Fauci if officials could let coronavirus ‘wash over’ US
> 
> 
> President Trump reportedly asked Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert and a key member of the White House’s coronavirus task force, whether U.S. officials could allow the c…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thehill.com



 Generation X F the world. 


 Herd immunity might have to be done the hard way. Wouldn't be my first choice.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Rethinking Herd Immunity and the Covid-19 Response End Game | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
					

Additional data, emerging variants, and new understandings of the disease update our earlier thinking about herd immunity for Covid-19.




					www.jhsph.edu
				




The section titled: *"Why is getting infected with SARS-CoV-2 to “get it over with” not a good idea?" *shows why it's not a good idea to let Covid-19 kill a ton of people.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mean while in sane countries.









						No new cases of Covid-19 reported in New Zealand for third day in row
					

No new cases of Covid-19 have been reported in New Zealand for the third day running, the Health Ministry has confirmed.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




3rd day in a row 0 cases. Lockdown has ended today after 6 weeks. Restrictions on some things, schools open Monday.

Bubble broken with nephew, he got to see granddad today.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Mean while in sane countries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No new cases of Covid-19 reported in New Zealand for third day in row
> 
> 
> No new cases of Covid-19 have been reported in New Zealand for the third day running, the Health Ministry has confirmed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 3rd day in a row 0 cases. Lockdown has ended today after 6 weeks. Restrictions on some things, schools open Monday.
> 
> Bubble broken with nephew, he got to see granddad today.



New Zealand is an example of how to respond to a pandemic correctly, while the USA and Sweden are perfect examples of how to not respond to a pandemic.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> New Zealand is an example of how to respond to a pandemic correctly, while the USA and Sweden are perfect examples of how to not respond to a pandemic.




Home sweet home. Hopefully no more flare ups.

Holidays to Australia, a cruise and to Europe cancelled in this family. 

Our own tourist traps with the tourists could be interesting though.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Home sweet home. Hopefully no more flare ups.
> 
> Holidays to Australia, a cruise and to Europe cancelled in this family.
> 
> Our own tourist traps with the tourists could be interesting though.



I'm a senior, it's a really bad time for this to be happening, for me. Had to cancel my senior trip to Disney World, and all my plans after high school. This pandemic sucks. I wish my government would stop letting people die, and stay closed.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I'm a senior, it's a really bad time for this to be happening, for me. Had to cancel my senior trip to Disney World, and all my plans after high school. This pandemic sucks. I wish my government would stop letting people die, and stay closed.



 Look on the bright side.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Look on the bright side.



Which is?


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Which is?




Cats.

Boring stuff.









						Budget 2020: $50bn rescue fund in 'once in a generation' budget
					

A $50 billion rescue fund sits at the centre of 2020's "once in a generation Budget" as the country braces for the economic carnage promised by Covid-19.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




At the end of it out gdp to debt ratio still gonna be lower than the USAs before Covid started.

Still less proportional to the war years as well.  Gonna suck for a while.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

At least it's a good time to start investing, you know, after the market stops crashing.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> At least it's a good time to start investing, you know, after the market stops crashing.




 I don't have cojones that big. The retirement fund is depressing enough.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Ah. How are things besides that?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This isn’t good.








						A Michigan Barbershop Used Armed Militia To Stop Police From Shutting Them Down
					

Michigan has been one of the hardest hit states in the country during the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer issued strict stay-at-home orders — but not all residents are happy about them. People who disagree with the forced shutdown of many businesses and public spaces...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> WHO has said Covid-19 may never go away.




Well, yeah.  But since we have ever only eradicated _two_ diseases, that's not really saying much.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I'm a senior, it's a really bad time for this to be happening, for me. Had to cancel my senior trip to Disney World, and all my plans after high school. This pandemic sucks. I wish my government would stop letting people die, and stay closed.




May I commend you on your position? Noting that it stinks for you, but it should happen anyway, is more enlightened than many folks are these days.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This isn’t good.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Michigan Barbershop Used Armed Militia To Stop Police From Shutting Them Down
> 
> 
> Michigan has been one of the hardest hit states in the country during the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer issued strict stay-at-home orders — but not all residents are happy about them. People who disagree with the forced shutdown of many businesses and public spaces...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




 Instead of Typhoid Mary we have Covid Karl. 

 Still at that age it could be a self inflicted Darwin Award.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Instead of Typhoid Mary we have Covid Karl.




Given that the video starts with an image of a barber wearing a mask incorrectly - not covering his nose?  Yeah, I dare say....


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Well, yeah.  But since we have ever only eradicated _two_ diseases, that's not really saying much.



Yeah, but it's strong coming from the World Health Organization. A lot of people seem to think that Coronavirus will just go away once we get a vaccine. It's important that those people know that that's not necessarily true. I agree, yes, we might never eradicate it because diseases are hard to eradicate, and it really isn't saying much that a lot of us already knew, but it's important to have this coming from the WHO.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> May I commend you on your position? Noting that it stinks for you, but it should happen anyway, is more enlightened than many folks are these days.



Thank you. I appreciate the appreciation.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Given that the video starts with an image of a barber wearing a mask incorrectly - not covering his nose?  Yeah, I dare say....




It's bad when you plan a holiday to Moldova, Ukraine, Baltic States and Russia because it's safer than USA.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> It's bad when you plan a holiday to Moldova, Ukraine, Baltic States and Russia because it's safer than USA.




Hey, I'm told Riga is lovely.


----------



## Umbran

In good news, while I am waiting for certain sources to update data charts, it sounds like my state just had its first day since March without a covid-19 death.  

While our testing rate has been generally increasing, our positive tests and daily new cases have been slowly dropping since mid April.  If they can just not open us up too quickly, we might be able to beat this thing.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Hey, I'm told Riga is lovely.




It does. Even the rougher parts if the old USSR are completely different to NZ. Less tourists, cheap as well.

Pretty here but seen it all before. Things to do in lockdown. Watch YouTube travel vlogs.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

People have forgotten we’re in a pandemic, not a live-action version of GTA. 


PS: St. Petersburg was wonderful.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> People have forgotten we’re in a pandemic, not a live-action version of GTA.
> 
> 
> PS: St. Petersburg was wonderful.




 Florida or Russia. I'm assuming Russia. 

 I watch YouTuber who lives in SPB.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Florida or Russia. I'm assuming Russia.
> 
> I watch YouTuber who lives in SPB.



Yes, Russia.

Moscow was interesting, but St. Petersburg was a classic taste of old Europe.  The architecture, the museums, the whole feel.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yes, Russia.
> 
> Moscow was interesting, but St. Petersburg was a classic taste of old Europe.  The architecture, the museums, the whole feel.




Moscow is the head but St Petes the heart of Russia.

Amazing architecture.


That time between Covid known about and the lockdowns beginning.

Rough parts of Kyiv


And poor old Moldova.


Stupid lockdowns. Worst parts of Russia make Chernobyl exclusion zone look like holiday camp.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Moscow is the head but St Petes the heart of Russia.



Well put.


----------



## Azzy

Dannyalcatraz said:


> People have forgotten we’re in a pandemic, not a live-action version of GTA.



I'd like to apologize to the rest of the world for Florida.


----------



## Hussar

Well, outside of Tokyo and Osaka and a couple of other areas, we're lifting our state of emergency.  I'm staying closed for the rest of the month - doing online zoom classes with my students, but, it looks like things are going to slowly open up.

And, got the first of my government help money yesterday too.  Not a bad couple of days.


----------



## Istbor

Oof. My state's extended Shelter-at-home was overturned by the State Supreme Court. All but a few counties are now completely 'open'.

Here is a little write-up of a place I grew up around.








						Video shows packed bar less than an hour after 'Safer at Home' order lifted
					

A video showing a packed Wisconsin bar is going viral on Twitter.




					www.channel3000.com
				





On the upshot, after reaching out to my father, it sounds like he won't be going to any bars anytime soon. So that is good. Not a lot to do in small towns sometimes.


----------



## ad_hoc

Man drives SUV into crowd of first responders. Thankfully no one was injured.









						Daily Dispatch
					

Daily News for America's Fire Service




					www.dailydispatch.com


----------



## Umbran

Umbran said:


> In good news, while I am waiting for certain sources to update data charts, it sounds like my state just had its first day since March without a covid-19 death.




Alas, it was the City of Boston, not the whole state.  But, good regardless.


----------



## ad_hoc

Canada is doing pretty well overall.

Active cases (orange) in Ontario are slowly dropping.







All other provinces except Quebec have it well under control.

Quebec is in a similar position to Michigan. About the same population with similar cases and testing only with fewer deaths. 

Active cases continue to rise in Quebec. There are over 25 000 active cases in Quebec compared to around 5500 active cases in the entire rest of the country.

And they're of course the province with the fastest reopening plan. They were scheduled to reopen schools starting this Monday but I think they postponed that thankfully.


----------



## Azzy

ad_hoc said:


> Man drives SUV into crowd of first responders. Thankfully no one was injured.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Daily Dispatch
> 
> 
> Daily News for America's Fire Service
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailydispatch.com



I swear, the US is the Florida of the world.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Azzy said:


> I'd like to apologize to the rest of the world for Florida.



I'd like to apologize to the rest of the world for the USA. We're full of jerks.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Azzy said:


> I swear, the US is the Florida of the world.



True. 100% true. Sad, but true.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

My county has 11.37% of the cases in all of Washington State. We are only 3.3% of the population of the state. We are also overall heavily conservative, and we have a lot of people who are disobeying the shutdown.


----------



## Zardnaar

Seems weird. Even from an economic pov getting back to business as usual would imply getting things sorted ASAP.

 Half adding the lockdown is worse option than herd immunity and effective lockdown.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Seems weird. Even from an economic pov getting back to business as usual would imply getting things sorted ASAP.




The only thing getting back to business as usual implies right now is a ton of folks getting the disease :/


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> The only thing getting back to business as usual implies right now is a ton of folks getting the disease :/



There are a lot of people who are saying that more people will die from starvation if we don't return to work soon, which is true if we do nothing about it. I personally believe that a life is worth any price, so we should do anything we can to prevent more people from dying, which is not what opening up the country will do. Opening the country will only increase deaths. 

We should do anything we can to prevent as many deaths as possible.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> There are a lot of people who are saying that more people will die from starvation if we don't return to work soon, which is true _*if we do nothing about it*_*.*




Emphasis mine.  That is a major, major "if".  It isn't as if we could not work out some ways of securing food supply without just going back to business as usual.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Emphasis mine.  That is a major, major "if".  It isn't as if we could not work out some ways of securing food supply without just going back to business as usual.



Exactly my point. The government has been sending out stimulus checks, but they take too long, the banks can seize them if you have debt, and are not large enough to support Americans through this lockdown. 

We could increase taxes on the uber-wealthy to pay for food. We could make it so it's against the law to be evicted due to not paying for rent. We could find ways to support those who are running out of food, moneys, and homes, but the national government is currently leaving that on the shoulders of the states. 

There are solutions we can do, but it will cause monetary sacrifices. Lives have no price, we should do anything we can to prevent them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Monies not really the problem with did supply.

 In a processing plant you can't do social distancing without cutting production. 

 Similar problem with agriculture in the packing houses etc. 

 Food production and supply was essential here. They closed one plant down and others cut production 50% to space the workers out. 

 This is what I meant about lockdown not being sustainable long term. 

 Most people don't have much idea about supply chains and food production at least on the practical level. 

 Storage is another issue. In normal times a supermarket has around 2-3 days supply, the distribution centers have a few weeks and the warehouses a few months. 

 So yeah USA gonna have food shortages. More in terms of variety not starvation. 

 They're still exporting as well. They can use emergency powers to shut that down though.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Monies not really the problem with did supply.




Oh, money is a problem. The CDC has a whole stack of recommendations that can help control the risk.  But implementation _costs money_.  Proper PPE costs money.  Testing of workers to get sick but asymptomatic people out of the workspace costs money.  Health insurance for workers costs money.  Sick time off for workers costs money. Paying them more to work night shifts if you go to a 24-hour work schedule to maintain capacity while decreasing contact costs money.  Training new people to work those lines costs money.  Increased sanitation at the plant costs money.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Oh, money is a problem. The CDC has a whole stack of recommendations that can help control the risk.  But implementation _costs money_.  Proper PPE costs money.  Testing of workers to get sick but asymptomatic people out of the workspace costs money.  Health insurance for workers costs money.  Sick time off for workers costs money. Paying them more to work night shifts if you go to a 24-hour work schedule to maintain capacity while decreasing contact costs money.  Training new people to work those lines costs money.  Increased sanitation at the plant costs money.




Up to point. Do plants run at capacity for example. Do they run a night shift already etc.

Assuming you had the money things just fall apart. You can't really train up night shift workers over night. Assuming you can recruit them, force your normal workers into night shift etc

There's a definite skill to knife work. And then it raises things like why are we working when the office workers are at home etc.

 Can't do much on a farm at night either.


----------



## ad_hoc

The food and the shelter and the healthcare is there.

Giving someone a hair cut does not produce any of those things.

It's a crisis. When we're talking about money what we're really talking about is how much the government is willing to cut into capitalist's profits.

Other countries are not 'more wealthy' than the USA and are able to supply these things for their citizens for longer periods of time just fine.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Up to point.




Yep.

Given that in the US, we waste about 30% of our meat, poultry, and fish, if we stop wasting it, we can cut production significantly, and still feed everyone quite handily.   

And that's not counting that we eat more of the stuff than we ought to or need to to remain healthy.  

So, government officials may be concerned about cutbacks in meat production, because Billy is used to having 16 ounce steaks, and will be annoyed in November if he can't have them so often.  But I find myself unconvinced that anyone is going to _literally starve_ due to a drop in meat production.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> The food and the shelter and the healthcare is there.
> 
> Giving someone a hair cut does not produce any of those things.
> 
> It's a crisis. When we're talking about money what we're really talking about is how much the government is willing to cut into capitalist's profits.
> 
> Other countries are not 'more wealthy' than the USA and are able to supply these things for their citizens for longer periods of time just fine.




 Money helps with a lot of things. You're still going to restrained by capacity though either in factory, production plant, staffing or even freight. 
 We had a fairly strict lockdown. Most if them are a bit if a joke about a 2.5 in pure terms.

 Obviously food production, distribution etc are essential. 

 Organization is also key. Sweden for example was willing to pay a higher price in blood but things didn't fall apart afaik. 

 You're gonna have a blood price regardless. It was already to late for containment by the time people realized.


----------



## ad_hoc

Zardnaar said:


> Money helps with a lot of things. You're still going to restrained by capacity though either in factory, production plant, staffing or even freight.
> We had a fairly strict lockdown. Most if them are a bit if a joke about a 2.5 in pure terms.
> 
> Obviously food production, distribution etc are essential.
> 
> Organization is also key. Sweden for example was willing to pay a higher price in blood but things didn't fall apart afaik.
> 
> You're gonna have a blood price regardless. It was already to late for containment by the time people realized.




Money is not actually a thing though. The solution to people not being able to afford rent is to suspend rent payments. The shelter doesn't disappear if the tenant didn't cut enough hair to pay the rent.

Sweden is getting hit much much harder than Norway or Finland.

Sweden also has the best healthcare in general in the world and among the best social safety nets. I'm sure their amount of people with pre-existing conditions is much lower than many other countries and the societal infrastructure is there to assist people economically as needed.

Still, they could have avoided thousands of deaths if they actually had a lockdown.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> Money is not actually a thing though. The solution to people not being able to afford rent is to suspend rent payments. The shelter doesn't disappear if the tenant didn't cut enough hair to pay the rent.
> 
> Sweden is getting hit much much harder than Norway or Finland.
> 
> Sweden also has the best healthcare in general in the world and among the best social safety nets. I'm sure their amount of people with pre-existing conditions is much lower than many other countries and the societal infrastructure is there to assist people economically as needed.
> 
> Still, they could have avoided thousands of deaths if they actually had a lockdown.




 You would also have to freeze mortage payments as well.


----------



## ad_hoc

Zardnaar said:


> You would also have to freeze mortage payments as well.




Didn't say you wouldn't.

There are multiple things to be done.

I'm not going to list each and every one of them.


----------



## Hussar

No, but, @ad_hoc it's never quite as cut and dried as all that.  For one, what percentage of rental homes (of whatever stripe) are in need of fairly immediate repair/service?  I mean, the stuff that really can't wait like a water leak.  I have zero idea.  But, again, simply saying, well, renters don't have to pay, owners don't have to pay their mortgages, doesn't always fly.  There's so many interconnected parts that no simple answer is going to work.

Interesting thing in Canada - our PM has just said that they aren't going to worry about fraudulent claims right now - they're going to just pay out and then worry about fraud later.  To me, this seems like the common sense thing to do, but, apparently, it's horrific to various commenters.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Monies not really the problem with did supply.



The reason the most recent stimulus bill was struck down in the American Congress was because of a combination of reasons, but a large part was because it would cast 3 trillion American dollars, which is a ton of money.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

The main two things that we need to do in the USA in order to save lives are:

Have as many people as possible be required to stay home. There are already many states that have implemented stay at home orders, but many of them are easing up restrictions. We need a nationwide order that every who isn't an essential worker must stay home. Also, we need better definition of what an essential worker actually is. In my hometown, audiologists are considered essential, as are tobacco/vape sellers, and marijuana dealers. 
Pay for everyone's food, worldwide, as much as we can. We can pay for it. It will take a lot of money away from those who have more than their fair share. Yes, the economy will continue crashing. Well, it's sad that we'll lose money, but human lives are priceless. 
These will prevent death, which the government is currently not doing, or is doing way too late. The most recent stimulus bill should've passed, it would've helped a lot of people, instead of bailing out multi-billion dollar corporations that have more than enough money to support their workers.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> Money is not actually a thing though. The solution to people not being able to afford rent is to suspend rent payments. The shelter doesn't disappear if the tenant didn't cut enough hair to pay the rent.




Then the person who owns the property doesn't have revenue.  That means they can't do maintenance on the property.  If utilities are part of the rental agreement, those can't be paid.  Insurance on the property can't be paid.  Property taxes also don't get paid if the rent isn't paid, so part of the local government budget disappears.  And if there's a mortgage on teh property, that doesn't get paid - and your lending banks have a cash-flow problem at a time you _really_ want them to be able to make small business loans...

Oh, and property taxes often go into the town's education budget.  That budget is right now going into trying to manage some kind of distance learning for kids - which isn't a planned part of most school's infrastructure, so they are incurring unforseen costs to try to keep kids learning.  Oh, and meal plans - a lot of kids were depending on schools to feed them breakfast and lunch, and they are going hungry without those programs.  So, the schools have often been delivering that food, and burning through their budgets doing it.  And now those budgets are going to be short even more.  Whoops!

You can't just shut off major money flows and not expect to have downstream issues.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> You're still going to restrained by capacity though either in factory, production plant, staffing or even freight.




Did you just miss the part where I said we don't actually need all the capacity we currently have?  In meats, we currently work under and embarrassment of riches, and that leads us to be wasteful and over-consume.  Go ahead, drop capacity.  Prices will rise, we will waste less, and cut portion sizes, but still have enough calories and protein.  

Picking of fresh vegetables will need to be looked at - may need to go with fewer folks in the fields at a given time, and get artificial lighting for shift work there, or some such.  At least they are outdoors, which is _much less_ of an issue in terms of disease spread, as the virus doesn't get concentrated in a closed volume in a field.

Picking and processing of grains does not generally require people shoulder to shoulder, so that's probably manageable.

So, I expect the food supply chain is manageable, if we actually apply our brains.  

The question is whether we do apply our brains.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Did you just miss the part where I said we don't actually need all the capacity we currently have?  In meats, we currently work under and embarrassment of riches, and that leads us to be wasteful and over-consume.  Go ahead, drop capacity.  Prices will rise, we will waste less, and cut portion sizes, but still have enough calories and protein.
> 
> Picking of fresh vegetables will need to be looked at - may need to go with fewer folks in the fields at a given time, and get artificial lighting for shift work there, or some such.  At least they are outdoors, which is _much less_ of an issue in terms of disease spread, as the virus doesn't get concentrated in a closed volume in a field.
> 
> Picking and processing of grains does not generally require people shoulder to shoulder, so that's probably manageable.
> 
> So, I expect the food supply chain is manageable, if we actually apply our brains.
> 
> The question is whether we do apply our brains.




Have you worked on a farm, packing house, warehouse etc.

Night time work is dangerous lots to trip over and it's cold. Artificial lighting only goes so far.

It's virtually impossible to have social distancing on production lines, pack houses etc.

Picking fruit off the trees or vegetables isn't the problem. It's where/how it's processed and sorted.

We cut our production 50% and cycled the workers week in week off. Government wage subsidy.

 Similar problems in the supply chain, canning factories, meatworks etc.

 If they did that 8 weeks ago with total lockdown sure. 

 Realistically your already had two months of half assed lockdowns and disruptions already. You would probably need another 2-3 months if you did it well starting tomorrow. 

 Third world already starting to go hungry as well.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> Then the person who owns the property doesn't have revenue.  That means they can't do maintenance on the property.  If utilities are part of the rental agreement, those can't be paid.  Insurance on the property can't be paid.  Property taxes also don't get paid if the rent isn't paid, so part of the local government budget disappears.  And if there's a mortgage on teh property, that doesn't get paid - and your lending banks have a cash-flow problem at a time you _really_ want them to be able to make small business loans...
> 
> Oh, and property taxes often go into the town's education budget.  That budget is right now going into trying to manage some kind of distance learning for kids - which isn't a planned part of most school's infrastructure, so they are incurring unforseen costs to try to keep kids learning.  Oh, and meal plans - a lot of kids were depending on schools to feed them breakfast and lunch, and they are going hungry without those programs.  So, the schools have often been delivering that food, and burning through their budgets doing it.  And now those budgets are going to be short even more.  Whoops!
> 
> You can't just shut off major money flows and not expect to have downstream issues.




Or you could, you know, tax the ultra rich fairly and not give them extra money when there is a crisis.

Other countries are able to manage just fine. 

What you're saying doesn't have to be the way it is. Everyone else around the world finds America to be ridiculous partly because of Florida but mostly because of this sort of thing.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> Or you could, you know, tax the ultra rich fairly and not give them extra money when there is a crisis.
> 
> Other countries are able to manage just fine.
> 
> What you're saying doesn't have to be the way it is. Everyone else around the world finds America to be ridiculous partly because of Florida but mostly because of this sort of thing.




Broadly speaking he's right. They can just evict or even if they can't they can just refuse new Tennants.

So without rent money will go under and the people probably get evicted anyway.

Or once the freeze ends just Jack the rent up so in effect you're backpaying.

 You also want money being spent in a recession/depression.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

In any _consumer_ based economy, one of the best ways to jumpstart it if it’s flagging is with consumer spending.  You get the money flowing through/out of the hands of economic actors, it’s like a shot of adrenaline.  And the people most likely to spend money are the ones at the base of the economic pyramid.  In the USA, people in the lower economic strata spend spend on average 95%+ of their income- some spending _more_ than they earn, accumulating expensive CC debt in the process.  In contrast, those in the upper percentages save 30% or more of their income.

This is part of why Arthur Laffer’s supply side economics only works under economic conditions that haven’t been seen in the USA since before WW2.  More of the money sent into the hands of the rich is saved, and is thus taken out of circulation.

(That’s also why austerity programs are usually counterproductive.  They take money out of circulation.)

Which is why, unless a large business is *crucial* to the actual economic and strategic well being of the country, they shouldn’t be eligible for bailouts*.  Failure IS an option in true capitalism.  See Adam Smith’s _Wealth of Nations._

Americsn mega-businesses have not only subverted that notion, their salary structures compared to their European and Asian competitors leaves them inherently less able to adapt to changing market conditions...and thus more likely to need a bailout.  As has been put by certain economists, they have have internalized profit while outsourcing risk.

*TL;DR:* the current US pandemic economic recovery programs are poorly designed and lack proper oversight to actually aid a rapid recovery.


* at least, not without LOTS of strings attached.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mein gotta had takeaways for the first time in 2 months. Lockdowns over washed down with a can of Baltika 5.

 Liqour store was open, so variety....

 Needed a haircut in March, now look like a disreputable wookie.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Needed a haircut in March, now look like a disreputable wookie.



I‘m starting to look like a black Bob Ross...with thinning in the front & center. 

I currently have more hair on my head than at any point since 1991, when I got rid of my “Afro-mullet”.

(No pix of me online from that time, but I could have given John Butcher a challenge in a big hair contest...)


----------



## FrozenNorth

ad_hoc said:


> Active cases continue to rise in Quebec. There are over 25 000 active cases in Quebec compared to around 5500 active cases in the entire rest of the country.
> 
> And they're of course the province with the fastest reopening plan. They were scheduled to reopen schools starting this Monday but I think they postponed that thankfully.



As of yesterday indefinitely postponed.  We’ll wait and see.


----------



## FrozenNorth

Hussar said:


> No, but, @ad_hoc it's never quite as cut and dried as all that.  For one, what percentage of rental homes (of whatever stripe) are in need of fairly immediate repair/service?  I mean, the stuff that really can't wait like a water leak.  I have zero idea.  But, again, simply saying, well, renters don't have to pay, owners don't have to pay their mortgages, doesn't always fly.  There's so many interconnected parts that no simple answer is going to work.



Specifically in Canada, the 6 big banks (and some of the independents) have deferred payments for up to 6 months, so it is doable.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> Or you could, you know, tax the ultra rich fairly and not give them extra money when there is a crisis.




Overall tax policy is pretty firmly in the politics realm, and I'm not going there.  If you want to go there, please do it on some other website.



> What you're saying doesn't have to be the way it is.




I'm saying that is the way it is now.  The reality of the moment is here, and you have to operate under it, I'm afraid.  You cannot ignore the present economic systems and flow any more than you can ignore the virus itself.  And in this reality, if you just stop money flowing somewhere, without consideration of the downstream effects, do you figure the impact will land on someone who can handle that, or is it going to screw someone low on the scale?

Yes, the nation could run differently.  But intelligent, well-considered, comprehensive change is rather out of our reach at this moment, for a variety of reasons that, again, are political.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This is part of why Arthur Laffer’s supply side economics only works under economic conditions that haven’t been seen in the USA since before WW2.  More of the money sent into the hands of the rich is saved, and is thus taken out of circulation.




Note that the European way of handling has been sort of supply side - pay the employers to keep employees on the payroll.  The trick is to _control_ how that money is used, rather than to hand a company cash to use as the stockholders and executives want.



FrozenNorth said:


> Specifically in Canada, the 6 big banks (and some of the independents) have deferred payments for up to 6 months, so it is doable.




For a while, if the lender in question is sitting on a bunch of cash so that it doesn't need the income, it can be done.  And if the economic dislocation lasts more than six months (or however long the bank's cash stockpile holds up)... well, it will suck for people with mortgages.

In the end, there are two things to be aware of:

1) Economies work not on the existence of money, but on the _flow_ of money.  If you stop money flowing, you will have a downstream problem, without fail.

2) Whatever the stock market claims, in the end, wealth is based on creating things that people use - goods, services, entertainment, energy, and the like.  Only about one-third of our people can do their jobs from home.  Keeping the others home keeps them from producing wealth, which then keeps money from flowing.

So, what we really need to consider is short to medium term* management techniques for keeping money flowing as efficiently as possible**.  We have to pick them carefully, not glibly.  The techniques used have to take downstream effects into account, or some folks (typically poor ones) will get screwed.

Why we can't seem to effectively do that now is a subject of politics, so here I have to stop.





*Nothing really saves an economy from long-term stoppage.  

**For me, it needs to flow to people who actually need it.  People already sitting on gigantic money sinks are not my personal concern at this time.


----------



## tomBitonti

FrozenNorth said:


> Specifically in Canada, the 6 big banks (and some of the independents) have deferred payments for up to 6 months, so it is doable.



Do you know if that includes a pause on interest?  I don't know if pausing principle payments matters as much as does pausing accrual of interest.  I imagine as long as interest still accrues, there is no loss to the banks.  There might actually be a gain to the banks because of the compounding of interest.
Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Umbran

tomBitonti said:


> Do you know if that includes a pause on interest?  I don't know if pausing principle payments matters as much as does pausing accrual of interest.




The typical approach to this in the student loan market is, "Sure, we can pause your payments while you are out of a job!  We will take the interest you accrue, and _roll it into the principle_."  So, not only do you have to pay that interest, but you then have to pay interest on the interest!  

The typical way to handle this in the mortgage space is to pause payment, and then have you make big balloon payments to make up for not paying interest over a period.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

So my wife works at a salon (currently paused since salons are currently closed by order in my state). A client just asked her if she could get a service done before she goes to the beach (which I might point out are also currently closed). And no joke, the client used the words "_It'll be our little secret._"

I fear it's only going to get worse as the state starts to partially ease restrictions. You can't even get the proper equipment and cleaning supplies to help ensure safety yet.


----------



## tomBitonti

Umbran said:


> The typical approach to this in the student loan market is, "Sure, we can pause your payments while you are out of a job!  We will take the interest you accrue, and _roll it into the principle_."  So, not only do you have to pay that interest, but you then have to pay interest on the interest!
> The typical way to handle this in the mortgage space is to pause payment, and then have you make big balloon payments to make up for not paying interest over a period.



Which, (IMHO), is terrible for the person in debt.  They are just being offered a deeper hole to step into, and are being handed the shovel to dig it.
The loan holders, if they were truly sharing the pain, would offer at least some non-trivial relief.
Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

The economy should be on pause. We don't need a good economy in a time of crisis. What we need is to save lives. We need better testing for everyone in America, which isn't currently available. We need an app that can trace Covid-19, like most succeeding countries have, but Americans don't because we hate invasion of privacy, even if it would save lives. We need to give more money to poor people so that they won't starve to death. We need to pause rent and mortgage payments. We need to take money away from the rich people to feed the poor, if and when it comes to that. My government isn't doing that. We have 86,000 deaths, still rising, and communities and the national government want us to go to work and die for the economy. That cannot be allowed to happen.


----------



## Umbran

tomBitonti said:


> Which, (IMHO), is terrible for the person in debt.  They are just being offered a deeper hole to step into, and are being handed the shovel to dig it.




Yep.  No argument.



> The loan holders, if they were truly sharing the pain...




The loan holder has no particular desire to share the pain.  The financial sector is not driven by compassion.  They are incentivized to keep you paying for longer - the longer you are paying off the loan, the more interest they collect.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> The economy should be on pause. We don't need a good economy in a time of crisis.




Okay, so, here's the problem.  You _can't_ just pause it.  

I grow food.  If I just give it to you for free, I cannot acquire diapers for my baby.  So, I _need_ you to give me something for the food (be it currency or barter).  As soon as that's happening, you have an economy.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Okay, so, here's the problem.  You _can't_ just pause it.
> 
> I grow food.  If I just give it to you for free, I cannot acquire diapers for my baby.  So, I _need_ you to give me something for the food (be it currency or barter).  As soon as that's happening, you have an economy.



Okay, yes, but we need to pause it as much as possible, which is not happening. Farmers keep working and selling as normal, people buy as normal, but the money you get to pay for the food comes from the government if you can't afford to pay for it on your own.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> *TL;DR:* the current US pandemic economic recovery programs are poorly designed and lack proper oversight to actually aid a rapid recovery.




That all depends on what the goal is.

If the goal is to help the majority of people then no it's not working well.

If the goal is to help the wealthy then it is working as planned.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> Okay, so, here's the problem.  You _can't_ just pause it.
> 
> I grow food.  If I just give it to you for free, I cannot acquire diapers for my baby.  So, I _need_ you to give me something for the food (be it currency or barter).  As soon as that's happening, you have an economy.




Here's the thing; again.

Other countries are doing this just fine.

This is like the constant argument of 'public healthcare being impossible to be effective' that Americans keep insisting on.

We know it's possible. Not only is it possible but it is much better. With their wealth and infrastructure American healthcare should be much better than it is, but it isn't because it is privatized.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> This is like the constant argument of 'public healthcare being impossible to be effective' that Americans keep insisting on.



Not Americans in general, about half of them agree with that statement. This pandemic is proving that our healthcare system sucks. I have known this for as long as I have been old enough to understand politics. Healthcare can and should be better in the US, but Republicans don't want to change it.


----------



## Deset Gled

ad_hoc said:


> We know it's possible. Not only is it possible but it is much better.




Possible for intelligent, reasonable people who want to cooperate for the common good?  Sure.  Possible in the current political climate?  I'm skeptical.  And sad.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Deset Gled said:


> Possible for intelligent, reasonable people who want to cooperate for the common good?  Sure.  Possible in the current political climate?  I'm skeptical.  And sad.



Republicans and Democrats can't even agree is saving peoples' lives for the sake of the economy is a good or bad thing.

(Also, people dying isn't good for the economy.)


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> Here's the thing; again.
> 
> Other countries are doing this just fine.












						Germany, Europe's Largest Economy, Enters Recession Due To Coronavirus
					

Germany has seen its biggest quarterly contraction since 2009 when the global financial crisis ravaged the country's economy. Economists expect an even deeper slump in the second quarter.




					www.npr.org
				




So, no, not "just fine". Better than we are?  Probably.

Here's the thing, again - EN World has a No Politics rule.  So, discussion of exactly why we do what we do can only go so far.  You want to discuss it further than that, you'll have to do so on another site.  I'm sorry.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Republicans and Democrats ...




*Mod Note:*

Republicans and Democrats are not really a fitting topic of discussion on a site with a No Politics rule like this one has.

So, please, find something else to talk about.


----------



## Zardnaar

tomBitonti said:


> Which, (IMHO), is terrible for the person in debt.  They are just being offered a deeper hole to step into, and are being handed the shovel to dig it.
> The loan holders, if they were truly sharing the pain, would offer at least some non-trivial relief.
> Be Safe, Be Well,
> Tom Bitonti




Interest rates are very low. Good thing about depressions is interest rates and inflation tend to be low.

  Money printer go brrrrrrr can inflate or devalue things a bit. Or money's fallen slightly due to this.

Every government that's sane is probably going to be making brrrrrrr noises.

 Decade of debt. So far. Our debt ratio was a lot lower than USA though.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ad_hoc said:


> That all depends on what the goal is.
> 
> If the goal is to help the majority of people then no it's not working well.
> 
> If the goal is to help the wealthy then it is working as planned.



I stand by what I said- _only_ helping the wealthy is NOT a recipe for rapid economic recovery.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> *Mod Note:*
> 
> Republicans and Democrats are not really a fitting topic of discussion on a site with a No Politics rule like this one has.
> 
> So, please, find something else to talk about.



Sorry, I'll not continue talking about that.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> Germany, Europe's Largest Economy, Enters Recession Due To Coronavirus
> 
> 
> Germany has seen its biggest quarterly contraction since 2009 when the global financial crisis ravaged the country's economy. Economists expect an even deeper slump in the second quarter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So, no, not "just fine". Better than we are?  Probably.
> 
> Here's the thing, again - EN World has a No Politics rule.  So, discussion of exactly why we do what we do can only go so far.  You want to discuss it further than that, you'll have to do so on another site.  I'm sorry.




The wealthy losing money isn't something I care about.

This is like the paradoxical notion that automation eliminating jobs is a bad thing.

It's only a bad thing because the owners are able to profit more off of it. If we instead used the additional labour provided by the automatons for the benefit of the people it wouldn't be a problem.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> Note that the European way of handling has been sort of supply side - pay the employers to keep employees on the payroll. The trick is to _control_ how that money is used, rather than to hand a company cash to use as the stockholders and executives want.



Which is why I specified *Arthur Laffer’s* version, which is predicated on tax cuts for businesses and wealthy.  Tax cuts, of course, being inherently without control & oversight.  But Laffer’s theory can work ONLY when taxation is so high that it is on the right side of the bell curve.  (Notably, no research has EVER been done on the actual _shape _of Laffer’s curve, so nobody has any idea if it’s even symmetrical.)

Some of the arch-capitalists of the late 19th and early 20th centuries did exactly the same thing European supply side programs do. Henry Ford, for instance, paid above-average wages to his employees in part to grow the market for his own products. Employees with decent salaries would be more likely to buy all kinds of things, including cars. And those who didn’t buy cars would still spend money, some of which would end up in the hands of prospective car buyers.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ad_hoc said:


> The wealthy losing money isn't something I care about.
> 
> This is like the paradoxical notion that automation eliminating jobs is a bad thing.
> 
> It's only a bad thing because the owners are able to profit more off of it. If we instead used the additional labour provided by the automatons for the benefit of the people it wouldn't be a problem.



It’s also a bad thing for certain individual workers.  Like someone who is in the later stages of their working life and would find retraining for a new job difficult or impossible.  Especially if they’re not in a good position to retire.

It could also be disastrous in areas where the local economy is not diversified.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> The wealthy losing money isn't something I care about.



Unfortunately, most of America seems to disagree with you.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s also a bad thing for certain individual workers.  Like someone who is in the later stages of their working life and would find retraining for a new job difficult or impossible.  Especially if they’re not in a good position to retire.
> 
> It could also be disastrous in areas where the local economy is not diversified.




Not if the people are supported.

The job is still getting done. 

The idea that a person needs to be punished because work is no longer required is ridiculous.


----------



## Eltab

tomBitonti said:


> Which, (IMHO), is terrible for the person in debt.  They are just being offered a deeper hole to step into, and are being handed the shovel to dig it.
> The loan holders, if they were truly sharing the pain, would offer at least some non-trivial relief.
> Be Safe, Be Well,
> Tom Bitonti



I have a student loan.  I got a letter in the mail telling me my payments and interest had been stopped (both) until October so I did not have to pay.  When I went to the lender's website to check on making a payment anyways - I am converted to work-from-home - it *wanted to argue me out of doing so.*  As if the lender figured out that payments made during the no-interest period would mean a smaller principal balance later and therefore _less interest income to them in the future_, plus I would finish paying it all off sooner.


----------



## tomBitonti

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s also a bad thing for certain individual workers.  Like someone who is in the later stages of their working life and would find retraining for a new job difficult or impossible.  Especially if they’re not in a good position to retire.
> It could also be disastrous in areas where the local economy is not diversified.



This is all true.  But transitions aren’t the problem.  Transitions are unavoidable.  The problem is how we handle issues from a social policy perspective.
Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ad_hoc said:


> Not if the people are supported.
> 
> The job is still getting done.
> 
> The idea that a person needs to be punished because work is no longer required is ridiculous.



There are people  in this world for whom a job isn’t just about making money.  It is an element of their life that helps determine their sense of self worth.*  For them, becoming unemployed directly and negatively impacts their mental health.  The idea that they would be “supported”- even through benefits they paid for by taxes on the income they earned by the sweat of their brow- is anathema.

i don’t necessarily _agree_ with that mindset, but it exists.



* I count several family members among those numbers


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> (Notably, no research has EVER been done on the actual _shape _of Laffer’s curve, so nobody has any idea if it’s even symmetrical.)



We can be confident that Laffer's curve is not symmetrical.  Of course it begins at (0,0) and climbs steeply to its peak - exact location not known but probably in the range of 10% to 20% tax rates, at a guess - then slopes down where we can place IRL historical data points.  I've figured it would look like a playground slide with the ladder attached to the (0,0) point.

P.S. The house font needs a zero with a slash in it, what I'm seeing in my post looks like the 'night owl' icon.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

tomBitonti said:


> This is all true.  But transitions aren’t the problem.  Transitions are unavoidable.  The problem is how we handle issues from a social policy perspective.
> Be safe, be well,
> Tom Bitonti



Transitions are inevitable, but that doesn’t make them non-problematic.


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Farmers keep working and selling as normal, people buy as normal, but the money you get to pay for the food comes from the government if you can't afford to pay for it on your own.



Weimar Germany tried that, 100 years ago.  They told millions of working people to stay home, not work, and collect unemployment benefits instead.  For reasons that seemed good at the time.  (Look in a history book for more details.)  And they ran the printing presses to provide the money.  The result was a hyperinflation where you would bring in a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread.

That is no solution, it is a dead end.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> We can be confident that Laffer's curve is not symmetrical.  Of course it begins at (0,0) and climbs steeply to its peak - exact location not known but probably in the range of 10% to 20% tax rates, at a guess - then slopes down where we can place IRL historical data points.  I've figured it would look like a playground slide with the ladder attached to the (0,0) point.



We’ve had historical tax rates in the 40%+ range that didn’t conform to the left side Laffer’s curve, so we know the curve’s peak is to the right of that.  Like I said, the last time we actually had tax cuts resulting in increased revenues was when the top marginal rates were dropped from 90%+ to the mid 70%s and then 50%s- right around the end of WW2.


----------



## Zardnaar

Personally I think the top tax rate should be around 40-50%.

It was higher once upon a time but very few people actually paid it. Taxes on luxuries are different.

Once taxes get to high things tend to go the other way. I think serfs in Russia were paying 95% at one point..


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Personally I think the top tax rate should be around 40-50%.
> 
> It was higher once upon a time but very few people actually paid it.



In America, the average millionaire/billionaire actually spends a smaller percentage of taxes than the middle class.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> In America, the average millionaire/billionaire actually spends a smaller percentage of taxes than the middle class.




 I know. I don't think the % matters to much but the amount you can actually extract. 

 Sometimes putting up taxes gets less tax as well as business just shuts up, moves or whatever.


----------



## Jester David

Man, it's extra frustrating as a Canadian. 
Our economy is intertwined with America, so it's in both of our interests if the pandemic is managed and business can resume. But America seems dead set in resuming too soon and too fast, which will likely cause a spike in cases that hurts our economy and extend the duration we have to keep the border closed.
There's this whole extra layer of impotence as we sit and watch things unfold. 

At least we're getting more than a one-time payment. I don't think I would have been able to make rent if I just got $1200 once...


----------



## Zardnaar

Took advantage of post lockdown reopening. Local bakery has reopened. Curry mince pie potato topped and a curry chicken pie with a couple of creamed buns.

One new case in last 5 days, active cases down to 49. No new cases locally last 27 days. One in hospital.

 Express my patriotism going on holiday.









						Glimmer of hope for tourism as NZers plan domestic holidays - survey
					

A survey out today shows more than one million New Zealanders plan to take a domestic holiday in the next seven to 12 months.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Probably be some good deals going and most foreign tourists are gone. Haven't been that way for 20 years as it got turned into a tourist trap.


----------



## Jester David

Don't care much for local coffee shops reopenning. Or bakeries. Or restaurants. Or even barber shops despite my growing scruff. 
But I'm counting the days until spas reopen as I have months of back stress that seriously need massaged.


----------



## Zardnaar

Jester David said:


> Don't care much for local coffee shops reopenning. Or bakeries. Or restaurants. Or even barber shops despite my growing scruff.
> But I'm counting the days until spas reopen as I have months of back stress that seriously need massaged.




 Everythings open with limits in large crowds.

 Apparently Vietnam did well. 

How 'overreaction' made Vietnam a virus success

 Not much testing though.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There are people  in this world for whom a job isn’t just about making money.  It is an element of their life that helps determine their sense of self worth.*  For them, becoming unemployed directly and negatively impacts their mental health.  The idea that they would be “supported”- even through benefits they paid for by taxes on the income they earned by the sweat of their brow- is anathema.
> 
> i don’t necessarily _agree_ with that mindset, but it exists.
> 
> 
> 
> * I count several family members among those numbers




That's why I said 'supported' and not 'funded'.


----------



## ad_hoc

Jester David said:


> Man, it's extra frustrating as a Canadian.
> Our economy is intertwined with America, so it's in both of our interests if the pandemic is managed and business can resume. But America seems dead set in resuming too soon and too fast, which will likely cause a spike in cases that hurts our economy and extend the duration we have to keep the border closed.
> There's this whole extra layer of impotence as we sit and watch things unfold.
> 
> At least we're getting more than a one-time payment. I don't think I would have been able to make rent if I just got $1200 once...




Yeah, we export a lot to the USA and the border is normally heavily used.

There is the added layer of Trump who likes to attack America's allies. He wants the border open which we just cannot have right now. Hopefully he will be busy with other matters and the diplomats can work it out gracefully.

In the end though I am optimistic about Canada. I think we're going to come out of this okay. Well, time will tell for Quebec but the rest of the country seems okay.


----------



## tomBitonti

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Transitions are inevitable, but that doesn’t make them non-problematic.



Certainly, they are problematic.  But they are more problematic in the way that floods are problematic: Unavoidable, but can be prepared for and minimized, and responded to effectively.
Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ad_hoc said:


> That's why I said 'supported' and not 'funded'.



How are you defining “support”?


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> Yeah, we export a lot to the USA and the border is normally heavily used.
> 
> There is the added layer of Trump who likes to attack America's allies. He wants the border open which we just cannot have right now. Hopefully he will be busy with other matters and the diplomats can work it out gracefully.
> 
> In the end though I am optimistic about Canada. I think we're going to come out of this okay. Well, time will tell for Quebec but the rest of the country seems okay.



Is it too late to move to Canada? I knew I should've done it 3.5 years ago.


----------



## Jester David

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There are people  in this world for whom a job isn’t just about making money.  It is an element of their life that helps determine their sense of self worth.*  For them, becoming unemployed directly and negatively impacts their mental health.  The idea that they would be “supported”- even through benefits they paid for by taxes on the income they earned by the sweat of their brow- is anathema.
> 
> i don’t necessarily _agree_ with that mindset, but it exists.
> 
> 
> 
> * I count several family members among those numbers



That was me. 
I'm an elementary school librarian. Which pays just as well as you'd expect for the Venn diagram overlap between a librarian and school professional. But was satisfying and has decent benefits.

But with the school year effectively over, it means I'm unemployed and basically just sitting around my house for another three-and-a-half months.



AcererakTriple6 said:


> Is it too late to move to Canada? I knew I should've done it 3.5 years ago.



It's too late to move and benefit for this disaster, but not too late for the next one.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> The wealthy losing money isn't something I care about.




Recession isn't just the wealthy losing money.  It is about how much wealth is being generated, which impacts how many people companies feel they can have on the payroll - recession means that all those jobs lost short term due to closing for distancing purposes may not come back.  And that's a problem.

Oh, and by they way, do you have any concept of how many _pension plans_ are tied to the stock market?  401k accounts?  Lots of not-so-wealthy people depend upon the general health of the economy to get them through their retirement with something better than a cardboard box as a lifestyle!  

You can't just say "screw the economy, it doesn't matter."  In a 300+ million person society, the economy is important for the welfare of all people.

Yes, there is a class of people who pull huge amounts of money from that economy without actually generating what I'm referring to as wealth, but they are not the only ones who depend on the health of the economy.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> The idea that a person needs to be punished because work is no longer required is ridiculous.




Unfortunately, we are dealing with a culture that is not ready for post-scarcity ideas like Universal Basic Income.  We still have hangups leftover from the age when not pulling your weight in the community was actually a problem for the community.  That isn't changing overnight, and not in the middle of this crisis.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Unfortunately, we are dealing with a culture that is not ready for post-scarcity ideas like Universal Basic Income.  We still have hangups leftover from the age when not pulling your weight in the community was actually a problem for the community.  That isn't changing overnight, and not in the middle of this crisis.




No one's figured out how to pay for a UBI.

Universal welfare at least would give people a shot at paying rent.

Our governments done the right thing and yeah our dollar has taken a hit already.

We've "lost" 20k or so on retirement fund, estimated 50-75k on fall in house values. Expecting share market to tank more.

All the losses are on paper. All you can do is wait it out so not worth stressing out about.
Not anticipating going back to work anytime soon either so home renovation or landscaping time.

Neighbors have lost around 30k on retirement funds.

No more D&D books anytime soon.

 Brothers a pilot. He was one of the first to lose his job. 

 Rent and mortage prices have outstripped welfare payments which are tied to the consumer price index which excludes rent and mortages.


----------



## Hussar

As far as banks not charging for 6 months, that's all very well and good for Canadian banks.  Canadian banks are some of the strongest, most profitable banks in the world.  To the point where Canada maybe not has the best banks in the world, but, is certainly in the top three.

OTOH, for example, in Japan, the banks consistently lose money and have to be bailed out by the government.  Expecting the banks here to not take any money for six months would collapse the economy.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> Unfortunately, we are dealing with a culture that is not ready for post-scarcity ideas like Universal Basic Income.  We still have hangups leftover from the age when not pulling your weight in the community was actually a problem for the community.  That isn't changing overnight, and not in the middle of this crisis.




Something to aspire to after this is all over.

One can hope that this is a wake up call for the issues present in the current system.

That's all I'm saying. That the framing is all backwards. Americans are out there protesting lockdowns when they should be protesting the lack of support from the government.

I understand that people need to get back to work because they aren't being provided with the means to survive. I just think it's unnecessary and barbaric. It's also ultimately self defeating. Prolonging the lockdown just a little more will prevent a lot more damage in the end.

Kind of like how healthcare works. If people can go for check ups for free then they can address potential issues before they end up in the emergency room costing tens of thousands.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Unfortunately, we are dealing with a culture that is not ready for post-scarcity ideas like Universal Basic Income.  We still have hangups leftover from the age when not pulling your weight in the community was actually a problem for the community.  That isn't changing overnight, and not in the middle of this crisis.



See also the Protestant Work Ethic, aka the Calvinist Work Ethic or Puritan Work Ethic, a concept involving theology, economics, sociology and other factors that combined- Voltron-like- into a powerful driver of political policy and how charities structure their methods of helping others.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> No one's figured out how to pay for a UBI.




That’s not _exactly_ true.  It depends on the exact details of the UBI.

There was a version of it posited a few years ago that converted the all tax money earmarked for all kinds of social programs into UBI, eliminating all of the government agencies involved in the administration and oversight of those programs.  Most loopholes involving the sprawling welfare system would be closed.  The only government expansion would be a subsection of the Treasury tasked with the accounting and disbursements.   In terms of dollar value of benefits, this program delivered more benefits to the average recipients than the benefits they got under current law.

It was picked apart by both sides of the political spectrum.

On one side, reducing everything to a simple $$$$/month looked like paying people to do nothing- a big violation of the Protestant Work Ethic.  To that mindset, UBI looks like it encourages social parasitism.  (RW research on this has revealed mixed results.)

On the other, the UBI itself is anti-paternalistic.  UBI depends on recipients taking personal responsibility for how the money is spent, and some current programs were designed to help people who have histories of questionable judgement.  If a program’s key goal is to mitigate the negative societal effects of bad decision making, UBI looks like a recipe for disaster.

For both sides, imagine the fallout from telling your constituents that the entirety of the “welfare system” was being ended.  The resulting clamor would drown out every sentence after that, and the helpful reports you printed detailing the new and improved system would become torches & fuses for Molotov cocktails.

So, even though that version of UBI was technically more efficient, there’s reasons in both sides of American politics that would undermine the political willpower to enact one in the foreseeable future.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> That's all I'm saying. That the framing is all backwards. Americans are out there protesting lockdowns when they should be protesting the lack of support from the government.




I think there is a whole lot more going on around those protests than, "I am not being provided for so let me work."  

Discussion of who "should" be protesting what is... politics.  Discussion of why they protest what they do... politics.  So, I'm not going there.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> I think there is a whole lot more going on around those protests than, "I am not being provided for so let me work."
> 
> Discussion of who "should" be protesting what is... politics.  Discussion of why they protest what they do... politics.  So, I'm not going there.




I specifically avoided certain other reasons for protests because it wasn't what we were talking about and is highly political.

There are obviously more dimensions to things than is reasonable to go through. I try to stick to the subject of what we're talking about. 

In this case it was government providing security of people during a time of crisis.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Americans are freaking idiots, which I can say as an American. My city's newspaper was well trusted before the pandemic, but as soon as it started posting articles on people not staying home, the increasing number of cases in my town, and how many deaths we have, the people who previously read them all the time suddenly turned on them. Every article they post online is immediately bombarded with comments on "Anyone who has a headache is diagnosed with Corona," and "They're lying to make us stay inside. We can't let that happen!"

It's going to take something bit in order to get these people to change their mind about Coronavirus. I'm guessing it'll take someone super important dying of this disease, possibly a government official, but who knows. Maybe they'll come up with more conspiracy theories to explain this death. 

I don't know how you inform the misinformed. How do you convince a stubborn person they're wrong?


----------



## Jester David

On the plus side, my housing situation has been forked of late, as I had to leave the house I was staying in for a crappy apartment. And I'm closer to retirement than I am to the start of my career, so I really want to find a permanent housing solution that I can afford in 20 years.
With the virus tanking everything and hitting housing prices hard in a few months it might be a good time for me to looking at buying something.


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> How do you convince a stubborn person they're wrong?



Leading off the way you did, is not the way to achieve this goal.  That feeds into the cycle of distrust and stubbornness, not break out of it.
You are going to have to take the other folks' interests and complaints and concerns seriously, and address those.  Find a way to fix (or at any rate ameliorate) their pain points, and they will work with you not against you.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Eltab said:


> Leading off the way you did, is not the way to achieve this goal.  That feeds into the cycle of distrust and stubbornness, not break out of it.
> You are going to have to take the other folks' interests and complaints and concerns seriously, and address those.  Find a way to fix (or at any rate ameliorate) their pain points, and they will work with you not against you.



How do you achieve that when they refuse to believe reality, are causing deaths, and don't listen anyway? I am sure they're not going to believe us if we talk nicely to them.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I don't know how you inform the misinformed. How do you convince a stubborn person they're wrong?



This is problem common to a variety of fields.

One ingredient to it is that you’re running into people’s core beliefs about the way things are.  That means you’re challenging _them.  _And the way our brain handles mental/social challenges is the same way it handles physical ones: fight or flight.

So it’s kind of a leading a horse to water thing.


----------



## UngainlyTitan

AcererakTriple6 said:


> It's going to take something bit in order to get these people to change their mind about Coronavirus. I'm guessing it'll take someone super important dying of this disease, possibly a government official, but who knows. Maybe they'll come up with more conspiracy theories to explain this death.
> 
> I don't know how you inform the misinformed. How do you convince a stubborn person they're wrong?



I suspect that anyone who simply disbelieves the news because it does not conform to their version of reality will only change their mind with direct evidence. That is, they get it or someone they know gets it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ardoughter said:


> I suspect that anyone who simply disbelieves the news because it does not conform to their version of reality will only change their mind with direct evidence. That is, they get it or someone they know gets it.



I’ve seen a *lot* of that.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ardoughter said:


> I suspect that anyone who simply disbelieves the news because it does not conform to their version of reality will only change their mind with direct evidence. That is, they get it or someone they know gets it.



Yes, there have been people protesting the shutdown that have caught Covid-19 and regretted protesting, but that's not going to happen to everyone who protests, and if it does, we're already too late. It will either have to effect someone in their personal life, or someone they look up to, so some major celebrity or politician.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

(I mean, there will always be people who won't accept reality no matter what happens. There'll still be conspiracy theorists saying that everyone dying from coronavirus was murdered by Bill Gates or the government, at least in America, and that's how things will be.)


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> How do you achieve that when they refuse to believe reality, *are causing deaths*, and don't listen anyway? I am sure they're not going to believe us if we talk nicely to them.



(emphasis added)
We know from experience that people won't believe you, nor change what they are doing, if you insult them.  
There has to be a different way, to get people to change.  The example of Rev. Martin Luther King comes to mind, although he did have the luxury of not being on any kind of time limit.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Eltab said:


> (emphasis added)
> We know from experience that people won't believe you, nor change what they are doing, if you insult them.
> There has to be a different way, to get people to change.  The example of Rev. Martin Luther King comes to mind, although he did have the luxury of not being on any kind of time limit.



I know. I obviously will not be jerks in their face to them, because that'll just make them become defensive.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> (emphasis added)
> We know from experience that people won't believe you, nor change what they are doing, if you insult them.
> There has to be a different way, to get people to change.  The example of Rev. Martin Luther King comes to mind, although he did have the luxury of not being on any kind of time limit.



Do a search for “rabbi converts Neo-Nazi”, or “black man converts klansmen”.  You’ll find several stories.

The details differ, but one common denominator is that in each case, it took time and a willingness to talk with- not shout at- someone who might be willing to kill you.

It‘s not a path that works all the time.  It’s not a skill or mindset that everyone has.  Even those who DO have that in them may not be able to muster the strength to exercise it every time- all humans have limits.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I don't know how you inform the misinformed. How do you convince a stubborn person they're wrong?




As Danny has noted - how you manage this starts with you recognizing that the issue you have to deal with is not "misinformed".  It is not "stubborn".  The issue is more, "has a different _belief system_". You are engaging in bringing a person to choose to change their fundamental beliefs, the axioms upon which the assumptions of their lives are based, and their decisions made.  That is a tall order.


----------



## Umbran

Hm.  This does not prove that we will be immune, or that a vaccine will be along shortly, but... it gives some hopeful notes.  





__





						Science | AAAS
					






					www.sciencemag.org


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Do a search for “rabbi converts Neo-Nazi”, or “black man converts klansmen”.  You’ll find several stories.
> 
> The details differ, but one common denominator is that in each case, it took time and a willingness to talk with- not shout at- someone who might ge willing to kill you.
> 
> It‘s not a path that works all the time.  It’s not a skill or mindset that everyone has.  Even those who DO have that in them may not be able to muster the strength to exercise it every time- all humans have limits.




This. You can't tell them they're wrong or lecture them.

Takes 1-3 years if immersion in NZ culture to convert an American to a kiwi.

Otherwise it's more a hands on thing. A lot of people want acceptence or someone to hang out with.

We had a gun toting AR-15 young fella from Alabama crying at his good bye party here. Kiwis accepted him and put up with some of his dumber comments when he got off the plane. Had a Maori girlfriend lol. He wasn't racist though just more Freedom!!!

He noticed when he was off his face on acid and pot and a cop (no gun) helped him out and wished him a good night at 3am in town.

NZ cops a lot more casual I suppose. 4:20 protesters have had smoke ups in the police station 0 arrests.

Hands on personal effort and/or remove them from their environment. Had a mate once grew up rough. He would stay the weekend and go home 6 weeks later.

 Posting online and posing on Twitter complete waste of time.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

IDK.  I think any line of communication you can keep open is good.

One of the conversion stories involved the Rabbi fielding phone calls from a single Neo-Nazi tormentor for months.  Somehow, he maintained his calm, and kept talking.

It was ages before they eventually met face to face.

I can’t help but think if those events were moved to sometime in the last few days, the harassment might have included hateful messages via Facebook or other social media.  And I‘d like to think the Rabbi’s calm engagement would still prove as powerful via the Internet as it was over the phone.


----------



## Hussar

Well, my daughter heads back to school tomorrow.  Fingers crossed.  There hasn't been a case in my ken (think province, but, really about the size of a county) for a couple of weeks which makes me feel good.  I know my uni students are going to keep doing online classes until mid July.  Sigh.  Oh, I guess I should mention that this is the beginning of the school year here in Japan, not the end.  

Really, for Japan, the timing was kind of fortunate.  They closed schools a few week early, but, all the exames and other nonsense was already done.  Now they're just starting a bit late and losing some holidays.  Not too bad that way.

Keeping my fingers crossed.


----------



## ad_hoc

I think not tolerating certain behaviours is the best course of action.

If people behave horribly don't be friends with them.

If people don't put up with their behaviour then they need to either change or continue being alone.

You can't force people to change.

The best thing to do instead is to support their victims. Use your energy on supporting the vulnerable people in your community instead.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> I think not tolerating certain behaviours is the best course of action.




So, on EN World, if we tell you that a behavior isn't tolerated, that means a few rather specific things can happen - you can get warning points, be removed from a thread, or banned from the site for some period of time.

More broadly, though, it is not clear what "not tolerating certain behaviors" means.  "Not tolerate" is not a specific course of action.


----------



## Zardnaar

What we did. Washington Post is behind a paywall bit some articles turn up here for free. 









						Covid-19: New Zealand edges back to normal after quashing coronavirus in 49 days
					

The Washington Post reports how New Zealand made it through lockdown to get to level 2.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Only one new case found in last week or so.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> So, on EN World, if we tell you that a behavior isn't tolerated, that means a few rather specific things can happen - you can get warning points, be removed from a thread, or banned from the site for some period of time.
> 
> More broadly, though, it is not clear what "not tolerating certain behaviors" means.  "Not tolerate" is not a specific course of action.




My life isn't a message board.

If someone is being harmful I tell them to stop. If they don't then they're out of my life.

I expect the same from my friends.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> If someone is being harmful I tell them to stop. If they don't then they're out of my life.




Are we talking about the same things?  Because I thought we were talking about people who are stubbornly rejecting the reality of the situation.  So they are not social distancing, refusing to wear masks, and such.

It it all well and good if you sweep such people from your social media circles, and not having them in your life*.   I am all for folks curating who they have in their lives.  But, for all that removal...  they are still out there exhaling on other people.  This stubbornness is making them a public health risk, and they are actively making others into health risks.  

"You may go about what you were doing without my interference!" is not taking a great stand against a bad behavior, is it?  "Stop!  Or... I won't even so much as tell you to stop again!" doesn't seem terribly intolerant.




_I dunno about you, but the only person *physically_ in my life right now is my wife.  So, we are talking about... unfriending them on Facebook and such?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Let me say that my father (MD) had a discussion with our houseguest about some of her decision-making proclamations that were scaring my mother.  I was not privy to what was said.

Personally, if she had followed through on some of what she said she was going to, I’d have advocated shipping her off to one of her kids’ homes, ASAP.

I’ve known her for decades and she’s like family, but it would have been an easy vote for me.  If your need for dining in a restaurant* or being first in line at the hairdresser’s outweighs the concerns your hosts have about contagion, you need to find somewhere else to be.


* few people like restaurant dining as much as my Mom, and she won’t even join me in the car on those nights we’ve done takeout.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> IDK.  I think any line of communication you can keep open is good.




I both agree and disagree with this, depending on the level of discussion you are talking about.

If you want to convince an individual of something, any line of communication you can keep open is good.  If you want to convince a group of something, keeping open lines of communication can serve to legitimize arguments that should be dismissed outright.  

For example, consider people claiming that COVID19 is caused by 5G cell phone towers.  It's so stupid it's beyond any reasonable argument.  But, if you talk about it in a public medium, you're still propagating the information.  If you compare it to legitimate discussions or theories about COVID, you actually lend credibility to what is a patently ridiculous idea.  And by allowing more people to hear about it you give more people a chance to believe it in.  It's a dangerous double edged sword.


----------



## tomBitonti

Umbran said:


> As Danny has noted - how you manage this starts with you recognizing that the issue you have to deal with is not "misinformed".  It is not "stubborn".  The issue is more, "has a different _belief system_". You are engaging in bringing a person to choose to change their fundamental beliefs, the axioms upon which the assumptions of their lives are based, and their decisions made.  That is a tall order.




This PodCast has a section which addresses this point:









						What To Say When A Loved One Shares Pandemic Disinfo | On the Media | WNYC Studios
					

Attempting to heal the harm caused by "Plandemic" and other conspiracy theories.




					www.wnycstudios.org
				




It's one of their shorter, mid-week segments, so a quick listen.

Be safe, be well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Fox has warned its viewers not to take hydroxychloroquine like Trump:








						Fox News Host Warns Viewers After Trump Says He’s Taking Hydroxychloroquine: ‘This. Will. Kill. You.’
					

Moments after President Donald Trump shockingly declared that he has been taking the controversial anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine as preventive treatment for the coronavirus, Fox News host Neil Cavuto warned viewers that the drug could literally kill them.“All right, that was stunning,”...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Statistical Shenanigans in Georgia:

As originally published:

As corrected to chronological order and so forth:

The article








						A 'cuckoo' graph with no sense of time or place shows how Georgia bungled coronavirus data as it reopens
					

Georgia's health department published a "misleading" graph showing a neat decline in coronavirus cases. An updated version shows the truth is messier.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Fox has warned its viewers not to take hydroxychloroquine like Trump:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Fox News Host Warns Viewers After Trump Says He’s Taking Hydroxychloroquine: ‘This. Will. Kill. You.’
> 
> 
> Moments after President Donald Trump shockingly declared that he has been taking the controversial anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine as preventive treatment for the coronavirus, Fox News host Neil Cavuto warned viewers that the drug could literally kill them.“All right, that was stunning,”...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



It is really a bad idea. It can seriously mess up your heart.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> It is really a bad idea. It can seriously mess up your heart.




 If people really want to be stupid let them. 

 It's like smoking pot and shooting up on  heroin. Not a great idea but people still do it.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Statistical Shenanigans in Georgia:
> _[...snip...]_
> The article
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A 'cuckoo' graph with no sense of time or place shows how Georgia bungled coronavirus data as it reopens
> 
> 
> Georgia's health department published a "misleading" graph showing a neat decline in coronavirus cases. An updated version shows the truth is messier.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com



How does anyone think they can get away with something like that? It'd be more honest  to just not release the data under some bogus claim of "state secrets" or something nonsensical like that.

It's _stunning_ the lengths some offices are going to to keep people in the dark.
.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> If people really want to be stupid let them.
> 
> It's like smoking pot and shooting up on  heroin. Not a great idea but people still do it.



The difference between this and heroin and pot is that hydroxichloroquine isn't a drug that makes you high. It doesn't benefit you in basically any way unless you have a disease that it helps for. It does hurt themselves and others, though, as people with Lupus and other diseases that this medicine is used for can't get it as easily as they should. (There is the point of it working as a placebo, possibly, but in that case, just take a sugar pill that won't make your heart explode.)


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> The difference between this and heroin and pot is that hydroxichloroquine isn't a drug that makes you high. It doesn't benefit you in basically any way unless you have a disease that it helps for. It does hurt themselves and others, though, as people with Lupus and other diseases that this medicine is used for can't get it as easily as they should. (There is the point of it working as a placebo, possibly, but in that case, just take a sugar pill that won't make your heart explode.)




If you're stupid enough to do it though.....

Anyone who follows that idea probably likes orange Cheetos. Less fans if orange Cheetos in November is good right?

It's the prime example of Darwin Awards in action.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Sure, it's a stupid way to die: Taking a medicine that doesn't help until your heart is killed by it.
But, also, it could hurt other people who need that medication and no longer have access to it after the POTUS tells people to take it.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Sure, it's a stupid way to die: Taking a medicine that doesn't help until your heart is killed by it.
> But, also, it could hurt other people who need that medication and no longer have access to it after the POTUS tells people to take it.




 Point. IDK how things work exactly but here they're rationing stuff like that and doctors are prescribing ad needed not as wanted which is less of an option.


----------



## Umbran

Theo R Cwithin said:


> How does anyone think they can get away with something like that?




Depends upon what you think "get away with it" means.  

Remember that job one is to get the support of folks who really want to believe the narrative you're putting out.  They do not think critically about the graph.  Such folks _don't look at the dates_.  And by the time they are done looking at it, their mind is already set, and later truth doesn't generally move it.  Confirmation bias is a thing.

The fact that they get called out by opponents later?  Irrelevant!  Opponents are lying!


----------



## Zardnaar

Another day of 0 new cases, 4 older ones reclassified.

1 new case in 7 days.

Might be lonely here though.









						Migration to New Zealand may halt for up to four years - demographer
					

The Covid-19 pandemic may cause a halt in migration to New Zealand for up to four years, a demographer says.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




Gives time for the housing crisis to be fixed combined with the stimulus package rebuild.


----------



## Azzy

Zardnaar said:


> Migration to New Zealand may halt for up to four years - demographer
> 
> 
> The Covid-19 pandemic may cause a halt in migration to New Zealand for up to four years, a demographer says.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gives time for the housing crisis to be fixed combined with the stimulus package rebuild.



Damn! That means it'll be a while before I can seek asylum in Kiwiland.


----------



## Imaculata

While Corona contaminations and deaths were on the decline in Germany, there has been a slight increase in the last few days of both.

Meanwhile the Netherlands are slowly easing the corona rules in light of steep declines. I just hope they are not doing this too early.


----------



## Hussar

Interesting article about Japan's response.  Even though Japan's death rates and infection rates have been as good or better than pretty much anywhere else, there's still this sense that the government dropped the ball.



> On the other hand, Japan’s response has been regarded with suspicion bordering on contempt, with the country’s low death rate – comparable to other successful countries – viewed as a “mystery” at best, or in some cases as evidence of an outright conspiracy.
> 
> 
> This isn’t just the case in the international media. Opinion polling suggests that Japan’s own citizens don’t rate their government’s response to the virus highly. As the University of Toronto’s Philip Lipscy points out, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s approval rating has actually declined during the pandemic, a distinction he shares with only Brazil’s far right president Jair Bolsonaro. An online survey by Singapore’s Blackbox Research and France’s Toluna, meanwhile, showed that Japan’s response to the pandemic was rated the worst in the world by its own citizens – even worse than that in the United States.












						Time to Give Japan Credit for its COVID-19 Response - Tokyo Review
					

While other nations are praised for controlling the virus, Japan's low COVID-19 death toll is often treated as a mystery at best, or even as a conspiracy.




					www.tokyoreview.net
				




Like I've been saying all along, everyone seems to be baffled as to why we aren't knee deep in corpses.  We didn't lock down, we barely slowed down really.  Companies have stayed open.  The trains and public transit never even wobbled.  But, according to the numbers, we've come out of this relatively well.  Certainly comparitively well.  I mean, according to the stats I've seen, we've had less than 800 deaths.  In a country of 120 million, that's pretty damn good.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

One thing I can think of: Japanese people have a history of being a LOT more likely to wear a mask if sick with a respiratory ailment, unasked.  That societal habit may have acted like a big ol’ dam for Covid-19.

Here’s a quote from a 2015 article regardkng mask wearing:


> As Nippon.com explains, Japan’s mask culture started in 1918 during a Spanish flu pandemic, which killed between 257,000 and 481,000 people in Japan. Since then, sales have increased year by year. Now, the country mask companies churn out billions and billions of masks annually.


----------



## Zardnaar

Japan's a lot more coherent culturally and isn't a tourist hotspot. Easier to get people on board.

 Dumb luck with fewer vectors in Oceania it seems and Japan's in a similar boat to NZ, Aussie etc. 

 Lack of testing might also mean the official numbers are low.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Damn it, Florida!









						Coronavirus: As Florida re-opens, COVID-19 data chief gets sidelined and researchers cry foul
					

Researchers fear a wave of data censorship after the manager of Florida's COVID-19 dashboard is removed from her post



					www.floridatoday.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Damn it, Florida!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: As Florida re-opens, COVID-19 data chief gets sidelined and researchers cry foul
> 
> 
> Researchers fear a wave of data censorship after the manager of Florida's COVID-19 dashboard is removed from her post
> 
> 
> 
> www.floridatoday.com




 The Confederacy will rise!!!

Translation anything in those former CSA states doesn't surprise me.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

It’s like the leadership in the South is having a “gaslighting the people” competition.  Florida tries to block coroners from releasing their info, then Georgia manipulates its trend charts to show a fake continuous decline.

”HOLD MY BEER!“ says Florida.

At this rate, MississippI, Texas and Louisiana are going to something very impressive to get a good score from the Russian judge to stay competitive.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Japan's a lot more coherent culturally and isn't a tourist hotspot. Easier to get people on board.
> 
> Dumb luck with fewer vectors in Oceania it seems and Japan's in a similar boat to NZ, Aussie etc.
> 
> Lack of testing might also mean the official numbers are low.



Well, the tourist hotspot thing isn'T really true anymore.  Record setting Chinese tourists arriving yearly.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Personally, Japan has been on my shortening list of countries I want to visit but still haven’t.


----------



## Istbor

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Personally, Japan has been on my shortening list of countries I want to visit but still haven’t.




Yeah I have to agree. I would love to come tour Japan.

Also... Why am I not more surprised by this little snippet from the Fox News article?

_While Cavuto was issuing a dire warning to Fox News viewers about the drug, Fox News host Laura Ingraham has continued to promote the drug as a potential “game-changer” nightly, even as her other colleagues quietly stopped touting hydroxychloroquine in late April after several studies laid doubt as to its efficacy. _

Maybe I thought they were more of a focused team? That such an odd contradiction would even exist.  I mean... a drug that could potentially kill or produce more health complications is certainly a 'game-changer'.


----------



## Azzy

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Damn it, Florida!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: As Florida re-opens, COVID-19 data chief gets sidelined and researchers cry foul
> 
> 
> Researchers fear a wave of data censorship after the manager of Florida's COVID-19 dashboard is removed from her post
> 
> 
> 
> www.floridatoday.com




That's what happens when you elect a corrupt, incompetent, unethical bootlicker. We're really closing in on the guillotine stage, IMO.


----------



## Azzy

Istbor said:


> Yeah I have to agree. I would love to come tour Japan.
> 
> Also... Why am I not more surprised by this little snippet from the Fox News article?
> 
> _While Cavuto was issuing a dire warning to Fox News viewers about the drug, Fox News host Laura Ingraham has continued to promote the drug as a potential “game-changer” nightly, even as her other colleagues quietly stopped touting hydroxychloroquine in late April after several studies laid doubt as to its efficacy. _
> 
> Maybe I thought they were more of a focused team? That such an odd contradiction would even exist.  I mean... a drug that could potentially kill or produce more health complications is certainly a 'game-changer'.



Maybe she has financial stakes in the drug company.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Less fans if orange Cheetos in November is good right?




*Mod Note:*
Suggesting that it would be a good thing if followers of a political candidate would get sick and die is not acceptable.  Aside from the politics aspect, hoping people sicken and die is callous and hateful.

Let's not see anyone do that again in this thread.  I hope that's clear.


----------



## Umbran

Azzy said:


> That's what happens when you elect a corrupt, incompetent, unethical bootlicker.




*Mod Note:*

I have given goodness knows how many warnings about politics.  Your being removed from this discussion should come as no surprise at this point.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Istbor said:


> Yeah I have to agree. I would love to come tour Japan.
> 
> Also... Why am I not more surprised by this little snippet from the Fox News article?
> 
> _While Cavuto was issuing a dire warning to Fox News viewers about the drug, Fox News host Laura Ingraham has continued to promote the drug as a potential “game-changer” nightly, even as her other colleagues quietly stopped touting hydroxychloroquine in late April after several studies laid doubt as to its efficacy. _
> 
> Maybe I thought they were more of a focused team? That such an odd contradiction would even exist.  I mean... a drug that could potentially kill or produce more health complications is certainly a 'game-changer'.



Fox has- from its inception- had an interesting mix of actual journalists and pure opinion commentators...leaning heavily towards the latter.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Some of the psychological and neurological effects sound as bad as the physical ones.








						Demons, spaceships, Pink Floyd: Coronavirus survivor reveals vivid hallucinations and nightmares from 'ICU delirium'
					

Neurologists are warning that delirium, a common condition in ICUs, may be worse for coronavirus patients. One survivor describes the night he felt convinced he was choking to death.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## wicked cool

Theres no talk about Colorado on this. We have The usual southern states that are bashed here and yet no mention of Colorado which is polar opposite politically and is just as open . Theres no talk that all those bad springbreakers didnt get sick or that the nursing homes in many states were not affected like basically 3 Northeast states (90,340 deaths and 28,302 are from New York) ? Is there any talk that the big box stores get to sell all goods and yet until basically recently or not yet many places cant open? Are we saying that Walmart is more responsible than the small craft store or small bookstore?

The Dutch believe that a Mink may have affected a human and all mink farms are getting mandatory testing and that CATS mya be spreading the(CNN) disease

World Bank group is warning that 60 million people (100 countries) could be pushed into extreme poverty (less than 2 US dollars a day)


----------



## Istbor

wicked cool said:


> Theres no talk about Colorado on this. We have The usual southern states that are bashed here and yet no mention of Colorado which is polar opposite politically and is just as open . Theres no talk that all those bad springbreakers didnt get sick or that the nursing homes in many states were not affected like basically 3 Northeast states (90,340 deaths and 28,302 are from New York) ? Is there any talk that the big box stores get to sell all goods and yet until basically recently or not yet many places cant open? Are we saying that Walmart is more responsible than the small craft store or small bookstore?
> 
> The Dutch believe that a Mink may have affected a human and all mink farms are getting mandatory testing and that CATS mya be spreading the(CNN) disease
> 
> World Bank group is warning that 60 million people (100 countries) could be pushed into extreme poverty (less than 2 US dollars a day)




So link an article. That no one has talked about it, is due to a lack of someone bringing it up. If you think we are somehow blind to the fact that New York got blasted by this, you are wrong. It is finally quieting down in that state, while the outbreak continues to move West and South. That is just a matter of course for a viral outbreak. To say nothing of policies or politics. They explode in large packed in communities, and through human movement spread out from there. 

Yeah. There were a bunch of idiot spring breakers. Not all of them young college students. They were able to go to their typical party locations because nothing was done to prevent that. Too much money at stake. 

Hard to talk about mom/pop places vs Walmarts and targets, at least on EnWorld. It is politically charged, and if you have been reading along, you can see that is not acceptable as a topic here.

I am willing to talk about it. Present us a topic, one that preferably won't get us kicked out of thread.


----------



## ad_hoc

Places like Florida and Texas are key to monitor to see the impacts of reopening.

Unfortunately we may not be able to trust the data that they're releasing. 









						Florida scientist says she was fired for refusing to change Covid-19 data 'to support reopen plan'
					

Dr Rebekah Jones says she was fired from Department of Health by the governor after protesting order to censor information




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Yeah, it's one thing to cause deaths by opening the state up, but it's a whole other level of terribleness if you hide the numbers of cases/deaths.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yeah, it's one thing to cause deaths by opening the state up, but it's a whole other level of terribleness if you hide the numbers of cases/deaths.



Which is one of the things many are upset about when China did it,


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Which is one of the things many are upset about when China did it,



There are a few key differences here, though. I'm not defending China, I think they caused a ton of problems and probably could've stopped the disease in its tracks before this pandemic became a problem for other countries, but these are different circumstances. We know how to beat this disease, but the government officials are trying to get us to restart the economy while not telling the truth about how bad the disease is.


----------



## ad_hoc

There are likely a lot of unreported deaths.

In New Jersey, there were about 5,200 excess deaths in the month ending April 11, according to a New York Times analysis, but less than 2,200 reported coronavirus deaths, leaving an unexplained gap of 3,000.

150% more deaths than reported is a huge discrepancy.









						Official U.S. coronavirus death toll may be missing many thousands
					

A confluence of testing shortages, inconsistent death reporting practices and a high concentration of nursing home deaths means the overall fatality number is likely higher.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Yes, at nearly any pandemic we've looked back at in past decades, the amount of deaths from it were significantly higher than our initial estimates. 

This will be true for Covid-19. A lot of people who die are never tested for Covid-19 because we don't normally waste tests on dead people, and if they're old and near to dying anyway, there's not much of a point to test them. (It is beneficial to do so if we want to track the disease, but in a lot of cases, it's just not worth it.)


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yes, at nearly any pandemic we've looked back at in past decades, the amount of deaths from it were significantly higher than our initial estimates.
> 
> This will be true for Covid-19. A lot of people who die are never tested for Covid-19 because we don't normally waste tests on dead people, and if they're old and near to dying anyway, there's not much of a point to test them. (It is beneficial to do so if we want to track the disease, but in a lot of cases, it's just not worth it.)




I wonder if that will be true of Canada.

The death toll here is quite high at 6000 deaths vs 80 000 confirmed cases.

Canada has fallen behind in testing so that could be a cause. Though 80% of all deaths have been in long term care homes so I think those are being accounted for properly, which according to that article is likely a big source of neglected deaths.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)
					

In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.



					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> There are a few key differences here, though. I'm not defending China, I think they caused a ton of problems and probably could've stopped the disease in its tracks before this pandemic became a problem for other countries, but these are different circumstances. We know how to beat this disease, but the government officials are trying to get us to restart the economy while not telling the truth about how bad the disease is.



Respectfully, I disagree. 

Lying to entice your citizens that it is safe to go about their daily business is not significantly different than telling other countries that the disease outbreak is not as bad as it actually is.  They are two faces on the same die.  The political and economic motives are the same.

And arguably, the states’ actions are worse: China lied at the very beginning of the outbreak, operating with very little knowledge about how the disease works.  Since then, we’ve accumulated data from months worth of research by hundreds of scientists around the world.  That means the people who made the decisions to mislead the public did so with much more _knowledge _of the risks they were enticing people to assume.  It’s Mayor Vaughn of Amity Island on a bigger scale.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And arguably, the states’ actions are worse



That is the exact point I was trying to make. They know how bad it is, know how to fix it for the time being, and are still forcing people to work and possibly risk their health and lives. 
China knew they had a disease, and should've done more to stop it, but they didn't have much information, and should not have done what they did. We have a ton more research and information that people are choosing to hide or ignore. China's choices were bad, selfish, and destructive with limited information. Certain states's actions are bad, selfish, destructive, and arguably evil with more information and plans on how to properly open up.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> That is the exact point I was trying to make. They know how bad it is, know how to fix it for the time being, and are still forcing people to work and possibly risk their health and lives.
> China knew they had a disease, and should've done more to stop it, but they didn't have much information, and should not have done what they did. We have a ton more research and information that people are choosing to hide or ignore. China's choices were bad, selfish, and destructive with limited information. Certain states's actions are bad, selfish, destructive, and arguably evil with more information and plans on how to properly open up.




 Problem is they kinda have to open up soon anyway.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Problem is they kinda have to open up soon anyway.



Why do we have to open soon? We can stay inside longer if we play things right.


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Why do we have to open soon? We can stay inside longer if we play things right.



You may have that luxury, but other people do not.  They have to balance multiple competing priorities and do the best they can at it.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Eltab said:


> You may have that luxury, but other people do not.  They have to balance multiple competing priorities and do the best they can at it.



No, the government should and can give everyone that luxury. More stimulus checks, increasing taxes on the uber-rich to pay for food for everyone, negating rent and taxes on those that can't afford it. 

They government isn't doing the best they can to keep the american people safe.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> No, the government should and can give everyone that luxury. More stimulus checks, increasing taxes on the uber-rich to pay for food for everyone, negating rent and taxes on those that can't afford it.
> 
> They government isn't doing the best they can to keep the american people safe.




It's called reality.

We have a well run country and lockdown lasted 7 weeks roughly.

We couldn't have kept it up much longer. A few weeks perhaps.

By June I expect most places reopening to some extent regardless.

We ran out of a few basics. Very light compared to other parts of the world. And we've "defeated" Covid.

 In hindsight assuming a perfect response full lockdown mid February, with something like what we did. 

 But no one was aware in mid February to that extent.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> It's called reality.



Maybe the reality of your country, but in America, we both have the means of prolonging the lockdown, but also the need to do so. We will have many more cases once we fully open up. America didn't even fully lockdown, doesn't still have sufficient testing, and did not properly respond to the pandemic. We can't half-ass the pandemic response, and then say, "It'll be hard to stay locked down, even if it will save lives, but I really like money, so we're opening up."


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Maybe the reality of your country, but in America, we both have the means of prolonging the lockdown, but also the need to do so. We will have many more cases once we fully open up. America didn't even fully lockdown, doesn't still have sufficient testing, and did not properly respond to the pandemic. We can't half-ass the pandemic response, and then say, "It'll be hard to stay locked down, even if it will save lives, but I really like money, so we're opening up."




It's not about money even though those in power are driving their decisions about it.

At the most basic level food still has to be produced and essentials have to be shipped.

Ideally everyone grabs 60000 calories and stays at home for a month.

There's also an element of classism at play. Why should we suffer while the middle class and better hides?

Most jobs can't be done from home. Cabin fever is a thing.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> It's not about money even though those in power are driving their decisions about it.



The people in charge are basing their decisions on money, which makes it the focus. 


Zardnaar said:


> At the most basic level food still has to be produced and essentials have to be shipped.
> 
> Ideally everyone grabs 60000 calories and stays at home for a month.



Ideally, yes, that's what happens, but we do need to produce food and everything else that is 100% necassary for survival. During the US shutdown, tobacco, vape, and marijuana stores stayed open. They're not necessary. 


Zardnaar said:


> There's also an element of classism at play. Why should we suffer while the middle class and better hides?



Yes, there is an element of that at play, especially when the government is trying to force the working class to work in a dangerous environment without healthcare, hazard pay, and enforceable mask rules. 


Zardnaar said:


> Most jobs can't be done from home. Cabin fever is a thing.



Most jobs can't be done from home, but a lot of them are unnecessary or are capable of doing work from home. (Also, cabin fever is troublesome, but will probably not kill people, which opening up will definitely.)


----------



## Umbran

So, folks, let us realize - we here will not solve any of these issues.  We here, will not even have any impact on these issues.  

Feel free to take your thoughts to your elected representatives.  But don't make an argument of it here.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> It's called reality.
> 
> We have a well run country and lockdown lasted 7 weeks roughly.
> 
> We couldn't have kept it up much longer. A few weeks perhaps.
> 
> By June I expect most places reopening to some extent regardless.
> 
> We ran out of a few basics. Very light compared to other parts of the world. And we've "defeated" Covid.
> 
> In hindsight assuming a perfect response full lockdown mid February, with something like what we did.
> 
> But no one was aware in mid February to that extent.




OTOH, @Zardnaar, we never locked down, at least not to the degree you're talking about, have a population density several times higher than New Zealand, and a constant stream of travel to and from China on a daily basis.  Yet, our numbers aren't much different than yours.  Our total deaths was less than a thousand, and we have a population, what, 8 times the size of yours in a geographical area that's pretty similar.  New Zealand and Japan are close in area size.  

So, this whole argument of "WE MUST LOCKDOWN" doesn't really fly.  It's one solution, but, not the only one.  Heck, Japan's freaking out because we lost 3000 jobs this year.    Compared to other countries, we've come through this relatively unscathed.  And, let's not forget China as well.  While they locked down Wuhan, the rest of the country didn't lock down at all.  My student's son lives in Shanghai and they didn't really even notice any difference day to day.  To the point where her son sent HER masks from China.  

My point being, there are other methods.  Chasing clusters, for one, seemed to work for us pretty well.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Hussar said:


> So, this whole argument of "WE MUST LOCKDOWN" doesn't really fly.



It flies when we don't have sufficient tracking, testing, or lockdown of the people who could have or should have.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> My point being, there are other methods.  Chasing clusters, for one, seemed to work for us pretty well.




Just to note - chasing clusters works when the pattern still has discernible clusters.  There's a point at which community spread puts too much noise out to find the signal of clusters, if you will.  It is a strategy for early in the outbreak, or while the outbreak is generally small.  When you have 15,000 dead in one city, it is too late to chase clusters there.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> OTOH, @Zardnaar, we never locked down, at least not to the degree you're talking about, have a population density several times higher than New Zealand, and a constant stream of travel to and from China on a daily basis.  Yet, our numbers aren't much different than yours.  Our total deaths was less than a thousand, and we have a population, what, 8 times the size of yours in a geographical area that's pretty similar.  New Zealand and Japan are close in area size.
> 
> So, this whole argument of "WE MUST LOCKDOWN" doesn't really fly.  It's one solution, but, not the only one.  Heck, Japan's freaking out because we lost 3000 jobs this year.    Compared to other countries, we've come through this relatively unscathed.  And, let's not forget China as well.  While they locked down Wuhan, the rest of the country didn't lock down at all.  My student's son lives in Shanghai and they didn't really even notice any difference day to day.  To the point where her son sent HER masks from China.
> 
> My point being, there are other methods.  Chasing clusters, for one, seemed to work for us pretty well.




Yeah the one size fits all approach isn't required. It's actively causing problems in other parts of the world.

It's an option for reasonably rich western type countries.

In USAs case I would have locked it down NZ style with an element of martial law. A bit more ruthless on the borders though. USA has an awesome military use it to seal the borders. Drones, soldiers, helicopters the lot.

That would disappoint a lot of people though. My bailout would look different to both sides as well but I would happily steal ideas from both.

This is why I can't be a politician. Ruthless pragmatist. This is what needs to be done get it done.

People gonna die regardless go with the result that kills less people. Emergency powers for 3 months. Been done before in the US.

Once containment fails you may as well go full lockdown or herd immunity pick one.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Once containment fails you may as well go full lockdown or herd immunity pick one.



Herd immunity only applies when we have vaccines and as many people vaccinated as possible. Sweden tried herd immunity and we can already see how that turned out. 

Also, the vaccine won't help us get herd immunity if enough people don't take it.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Herd immunity only applies when we have vaccines and as many people vaccinated as possible. Sweden tried herd immunity and we can already see how that turned out.
> 
> Also, the vaccine won't help us get herd immunity if enough people don't take it.




I'll rephrase herd immunity to survival of the fittest.

Multiply Covid deaths by 10 and it's still a fraction of how many people are going to starve to death.

Take some precautions obviously but it's getting to the point things are going to reopen regardless.

 IDK if a 3 month total lockdown is viable now.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Yes, survival of all the people who aren't old or sick. Sounds really nice when you think about it. (I am saying this in the most sarcastic voice possible)

We can make programs to keep people from starving to death in America.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yes, survival of all the people who aren't old or sick. Sounds really nice when you think about it. (I am saying this in the most sarcastic voice possible)
> 
> We can make programs to keep people from starving to death in America.




It's other countries that will starve but America is a major food exporter.

If USA locked down now that's another 3 months. I don't think a 5 month lockdown is viable.

Here our essentials were basically food, freight, pharmacy, and supermarkets. They closed almost everything.

Someone has to do those type of jobs even if you locked down correctly.

Reality right now is you're going to have to reopen come June regardless. Just in time for wave 2.

 America's gonna have food shortages already from what I've been reading.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Apparently, we’re living in a crappy reboot:


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Apparently, we’re living in a crappy reboot:




 Disney?

 There was also a mini depression back then as well.


----------



## LuisCarlos17f

Yesterday I read a new scandal. Bolibia bought Spanish ventilators (machines what help to breath) with a higher price. 









						Bolivia health minister arrested for corruption over ventilators
					

Health Minister Marcelo Navajas was arrested due to the over-priced purchase of coronavirus ventilators




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




Let's imagine your own goverment incaute your things but not to distributite to who needs it more but for who pays more.


----------



## Zardnaar

LuisCarlos17f said:


> Yesterday I read a new scandal. Bolibia bought Spanish ventilators (machines what help to breath) with a higher price.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bolivia health minister arrested for corruption over ventilators
> 
> 
> Health Minister Marcelo Navajas was arrested due to the over-priced purchase of coronavirus ventilators
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Let's imagine your own goverment incaute your things but not to distributite to who needs it more but for who pays more.




Still cheap, I thought they around 50k each.

 0 new cases again. Went to a restaurant dine in. Support the local suburb. Hot butter chicken and a paneer kadai. 

They've set up contact free paywave. Limit on numbers, only 10 per group.

 Sanitizer at the door. They set up everything according to the new regulations. 

 Also a sign in/out book. In case of further outbreaks makes contact tracing easier. Not business as usual but first dine out in about 10 weeks.


----------



## FrozenNorth

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That means the people who made the decisions to mislead the public did so with much more _knowledge _of the risks they were enticing people to assume.  It’s Mayor Vaughn of Amity Island on a bigger scale.



I know we’re not supposed to get political here, but Mayor Vaughn was a DICK!


----------



## seebs

Zardnaar said:


> I'll rephrase herd immunity to survival of the fittest.
> 
> Multiply Covid deaths by 10 and it's still a fraction of how many people are going to starve to death.




What are the assumptions/specifics going into the "are going to starve to death" number? Are you including the usual rate at which people starve in the world anyway, which is pretty high but not really related usually?

All the economic research I've seen on epidemic/pandemic circumstances suggests that longer and stricter restrictions on public gatherings, etcetera, produce dramatically better outcomes both in terms of lives lost and in terms of economic recovery. It turns out dead people don't come back to work.


----------



## ad_hoc

So this is how social distancing is going in Texas.









						Texas’ Post-Quarantine “Go Topless Jeep Weekend” Ends With 189 Arrests, Two Shot
					

Police didn't even bother trying to enforce social distancing.




					god.dailydot.com


----------



## Istbor

I feel like America very much half-butted our approach to 'lockdown'. And unfortunately, imposing a real lockdown now is both too late, and too harmful to the country at large. Had it not been so spotty and varied in timing, I think we would be looking at a different summer. That time has past though, we sort of have to live with those choices now and do what we can.

I mean, the company I work for isn't going back to 'normal' until late August at this point. Sigh. Means more work for me, but we are in the biochemical/medical field so product must flow.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> So this is how social distancing is going in Texas.




If you are arresting 189 people for other reasons, and two people get shot... maybe lack of social distancing isn't really the basic issue at hand.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Umbran said:


> If you are arresting 189 people for other reasons, and two people get shot... maybe lack of social distancing isn't really the basic issue at hand.



That's just how we do social distancing here in Texas. 
Yeehaw!


----------



## Zardnaar

seebs said:


> What are the assumptions/specifics going into the "are going to starve to death" number? Are you including the usual rate at which people starve in the world anyway, which is pretty high but not really related usually?
> 
> All the economic research I've seen on epidemic/pandemic circumstances suggests that longer and stricter restrictions on public gatherings, etcetera, produce dramatically better outcomes both in terms of lives lost and in terms of economic recovery. It turns out dead people don't come back to work.




Earlier in the thread articles were posted.

BBC had one saying the disruptions due to Covid at 30 million. Another poster said 100 million and posted the link.

Another article pointed out the problems of a one size fits all approach of lockdowns. In places like India people will starve.

 It's a sad reality.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> It's a sad reality.



It's sad, but it's not universally true.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

The reality-- of Life in general-- is that what people _can_ do, what they _should_ do, and what they _do_ do are almost never in alignment.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

US could have prevented majority of deaths and cases if it shut down sooner, new model finds
					

The global coronavirus pandemic has brought countries to a standstill. Here's the latest updates on worldwide Covid-19 cases, deaths, government responses, and more.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> It's sad, but it's not universally true.




Some countries can't afford to lock down. India is one such place.

They're in some form of lockdown but people are gonna go hungary/starve.

Brazil and Venezuela as well.

Throw in economic disruption and the west is gonna be broke/short of food themselves.

  There's food rotting in the ground in the UK atm because they don't have the migrants to harvest it, the British don't wanna do it and consumers don't want to pay more to pay the British to do it.

 Everyone just kind of expects someone else to do it and they buy it for cheap.

Similar thing here and US. With lockdowns you either can't harvest it or if you can you can't sell it as the restaurants etc are shut.

Catch 22.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Yes, it's very bad that food is going to waste or that people will starve. But, in America we can prevent this kind of situation, but we're not currently trying to do it. 








						Donald Trump Says U.S. Won’t Close Economy Again, Even If There’s A Second Wave Of Coronavirus
					

President Donald Trump on Thursday said “we are not closing our country” if the U.S. is hit by a second wave of COVID-19. His comments come on the same day that the United States reported another 2…




					deadline.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

I mean, I don't think he has the authority to say that, but you never know with our system of government.


----------



## Lem23

Zardnaar said:


> Nothing new. Look up luddites.




You should look up Luddites. Despite them now being associated with knee-jerk anti-technological groups, the original Luddites (Capital L, as followers of their possibly mythical hero Ned Ludd) were not anti-technology. They were a proto-union, workers who were being mistreated by shop owners, not being paid fairly, and undergoing unsafe practices that could maim or kill them. As a consequence, they first tried to reason with the owners, and wen that failed, went for direct action instead. 

At the time, many factories encompassed large rooms where several owners would have their machines. The Luddites would often disguise themselves, then break into the factories and smash the equipment _of those owners who were treating them unfairly. _They would _not_ smash the equipment of the fair employers. The Luddites stopped their attacks _when unions were made legal_ in England.

If you're interested in learning more about the actual Luddites, start with EP Thompson's excellent _The Making of the English Working Class _which covers their history in some detail. He's also written some articles (as have others) that go into more detail on the Luddites and similar movements if you have access to journal databases.


----------



## Zardnaar

Lem23 said:


> You should look up Luddites. Despite them now being associated with knee-jerk anti-technological groups, the original Luddites (Capital L, as followers of their possibly mythical hero Ned Ludd) were not anti-technology. They were a proto-union, workers who were being mistreated by shop owners, not being paid fairly, and undergoing unsafe practices that could maim or kill them. As a consequence, they first tried to reason with the owners, and wen that failed, went for direct action instead.
> 
> At the time, many factories encompassed large rooms where several owners would have their machines. The Luddites would often disguise themselves, then break into the factories and smash the equipment _of those owners who were treating them unfairly. _They would _not_ smash the equipment of the fair employers. The Luddites stopped their attacks _when unions were made legal_ in England.
> 
> If you're interested in learning more about the actual Luddites, start with EP Thompson's excellent _The Making of the English Working Class _which covers their history in some detail. He's also written some articles (as have others) that go into more detail on the Luddites and similar movements if you have access to journal databases.




 Just as well it's a forum and I used it in it's anti technology context. 

 Since this isn't a university lecture il file it between I already know that/don't care.


----------



## Lem23

Zardnaar said:


> Just as well it's a forum and I used it in it's anti technology context.
> 
> Since this isn't a university lecture il file it between I already know that/don't care.




Oh, don't worry, my university lecture on the subject goes on for about 45 minutes, though that does include a bit on the Captain Swing riots too.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

At Rally, Bexar County Republican Chair Cynthia Brehm Claims Coronavirus Is a Democratic Hoax
					

Just when it appears Bexar County Republican Chairwoman Cynthia Brehm can't crawl any further down a rabbit hole of conspiracy theories, she manages to burrow...




					www.sacurrent.com


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

I know not a _lot_ of people wore masks before covid, but I did see them here and there... and I don't recall all the righteous indignation against those people back then.
This is getting insane, and nasty.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

69% of americans wear masks in public. The people who don't seem to be closer together, packed in groups, probably spreading the disease.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I don’t wish evil on anyone, but the fact that Covid-19 is both dangerous but not OBVIOUSLY dangerous (as compared to diseases with much higher mortality rates) is proving to be a mixed blessing.

If it were moderately more lethal, the anti-mask/anti-vax bunch would either be much smaller and keeping a lower profile, or the issue would be self-correcting as the body count among their numbers would steadily rise.

As things are, only a fraction of those people acting out like that will directly or proximally experience a reality check, so the behavior is unlikely to disappear.

And that’s going to translate into a prolonged initial wave, a larger second wave, and more socioeconomic turmoil.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

If Covid-19 was visible, people would avoid it like the plague that it is. Hypothetical situation:

Say, if everyone who was infected with Covid-19 temporarily became a zombie a couple weeks after being infected, everyone would do all that they could to avoid catching the virus. They'd wear masks, hazmat suits, avoid going out into public, not host Coronavirus parties, get vaccines if possible, not go to work, and so on. Even if it had the same fatality rate, people would have a much harsher response if the problem was visible. 

Just a strange thought I had.


----------



## MarkB

AcererakTriple6 said:


> If Covid-19 was visible, people would avoid it like the plague that it is. Hypothetical situation:
> 
> Say, if everyone who was infected with Covid-19 temporarily became a zombie a couple weeks after being infected, everyone would do all that they could to avoid catching the virus. They'd wear masks, hazmat suits, avoid going out into public, not host Coronavirus parties, get vaccines if possible, not go to work, and so on. Even if it had the same fatality rate, people would have a much harsher response if the problem was visible.
> 
> Just a strange thought I had.



Yeah, but they'd also try to shoot them in the head.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well waited until things got quiet after the initial rush.

For a post Covid world it seems bars and restaurants are quiet. Social distancing rules apply.

Under level two most things are open but shop early or be prepared to line up. They're limiting how many can go into stores at once.

Went to our equivalent of Walmart to get some clothes. Managed to snag a haircut. Social distancing was decent, they've marked out places you can line up etc.

Tourist places are screaming out for support/domestic tourists. Realistically a lot of those Business are doomed.

Public sympathy isn't very high it seems. They've been over charging tourists for years and priced a lot of locals out.

Resort town of Queenstown is projecting 30-50% unemployment. One deal I saw was 7 nights, ski field pass, rental car and meal voucher for $90 USD a day.

1 new case last few days. 2-3 total last week and a half. None locally for something like 35 days.

Not much in the way of mask wearing. Hand sanitizer is back on supermarket shelves, masks can be found if you know where to look. They're kind of expensive.

Haven't had the collapse USA has but unemployment is rising. Long term forecasts are bad for the next couple of years or three but better than say USA.

We're also having to deal with 100k migrant workers. Their visas are expiring, don't qualify for welfare and a lot of the jobs they were in have evaporated.

Little bit of fallout. Prime minister is super popular and with collapsing polls the opposition rolled their leader swapping a conservative right winger for a right of center type with more liberal social views. Hard right/left doesn't work so well in NZ. He botched the Covid response pulling the openup at all costs mentality a few weeks ago which evaporated around 1/3rd of their support. Goneburger. 

Jacindas numbers officially make her the most popular Prime Minister ever at least while they gave done polling.


----------



## Hussar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> 69% of americans wear masks in public. The people who don't seem to be closer together, packed in groups, probably spreading the disease.




Hur hur.  69... hur hur.


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> 69% of americans wear masks in public. The people who don't seem to be closer together, packed in groups, probably spreading the disease.



How do you (generic _you_) know who has it and who does not?  
After two months of isolation, the asymptomatic contagious carriers of March should have given it to their families and either kicked it or seen hospitals by now.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Eltab said:


> How do you (generic _you_) know who has it and who does not?



Sorry, I was making a general statement. People who wear masks spread the disease less often in public. At home, if someone has covid-19, the odds of you catching it are very high.


----------



## Zardnaar

No new cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand for second day in row
					

There have been no new cases of Covid-19 reported in New Zealand in the past 24 hours, for the second day running.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




97% recovery rate. 27 active cases. 1500 total, 1100 or so confirmed. Probables get counted as part of that 1500.

 No one's died for a while. Deathtoll at 21 still. Lockdowns over, some restrictions apply. Think this was first weekend bars were allowed to reopen.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> After two months of isolation, the asymptomatic contagious carriers of March should have given it to their families and either kicked it or seen hospitals by now.




If that were true, the hospitals would not still be seeing hundreds of cases come in.

And, really, the folks who are now refusing to wear masks... how strict do you expect their isolation really was?


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> And, really, the folks who are now refusing to wear masks... how strict do you expect their isolation really was?



Yes, exactly. I'm not aware of any studies that show that people who refuse to wear masks in public are more likely to catch and transmit the disease, but by common sense they should be doing so.


----------



## Zardnaar

How hard are masks to buy in your area? I wore them twice.

Mostly just didn't go anywhere except for walks around the block.

Went to the supermarket 3 time in 7 weeks, ate oats and canned food. Crossed the road about 5 times avoiding people and went to the supermarket at the quiet times avoiding the crowds. Generally late at night or early morning Monday/Tuesday.

Ate a lot of whatever was left on the shelf after they were already picked over.

Sick of oats and tinned peaches being honest.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

In America, most people seem to buy NFL masks or make their own with youtube tutorials.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> In America, most people seem to buy NFL masks or make their own with youtube tutorials.




I managed to find some at a corner store then the Pharmacy.

They were quite expensive. I folded a t shirt up a few times and tied that around the face. Held it in place with a beanie hat and hood.

Mostly just avoided going anywhere where a mask would be required.

 Longer lockdown went on the more complacent we became. Social distancing was pretty good along with washing but stopped being paranoid about the groceries, hand sanitizer etc.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I don’t wish evil on anyone, but the fact that Covid-19 is both dangerous but not OBVIOUSLY dangerous (as compared to diseases with much higher mortality rates) is proving to be a mixed blessing.
> 
> If it were moderately more lethal, the anti-mask/anti-vax bunch would either be much smaller and keeping a lower profile, or the issue would be self-correcting as the body count among their numbers would steadily rise.
> 
> As things are, only a fraction of those people acting out like that will directly or proximally experience a reality check, so the behavior is unlikely to disappear.
> 
> And that’s going to translate into a prolonged initial wave, a larger second wave, and more socioeconomic turmoil.




Or if the US delayed their lockdown 1 more month. It would be completely out of control and people would see it for what it was.

Extreme measures have been taken and with those measures the worst has been averted so they say that there was not much of a threat in the first place.

It seems like no matter what, the bad needs to happen in order for people to see it.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> How hard are masks to buy in your area? I wore them twice.




I have not seen a store with them for sale, but I haven't looked very hard, because my Mom taught me the basics of using a sewing machine, and I made a some when my office switched to working from home back in march.  I'll probably be making another batch of new and improved masks soon.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> For a post Covid world it seems bars and restaurants are quiet. Social distancing rules apply.



Where YOU are, I suppose.  (And good on ya for that.)

On many states where bars opened, they were packed.  In some cases, people were crossing state lines to eat in restaurants.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Where YOU are, I suppose.  (And good on ya for that.)
> 
> On many states where bars opened, they were packed.  In some cases, people were crossing state lines to eat in restaurants.




 First night out as such post lockdown. Limited menu.

 Southern fried chicken burger and IPA. USD $ IPA 3, meal about $16.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> How hard are masks to buy in your area? I wore them twice.



Some local crafters are making reusable cloth masks- and soon, so will we- but buying the typical, over the ear disposable ones is definitely more difficult than it used to be.  Because we’ve been constraining our trips outside of the house, we haven’t exhausted our initial supply of those, and we’ve added to our stash when we could.


----------



## Zardnaar

Kinda weird. Supermarkets now stocking hand sanitizer and walking to car from restaurant.





 50 pack of masks approx $70 USD. 

Haven't been in this area since first week of March.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The discussions I’ve seen about a possible second shutdown reminded me of an old Twilight Zone episode.





__





						The Old Man in the Cave - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

For those wondering about the classless individuals that have been coughing and spitting on/at people, here’s one who was caught, arrested, and charged with at least one felony:




__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com
				




There are more, but I’m just posting this one reminder: it IS illegal, and perpetrators could face jail time & fines.


----------



## Nebulous

I was texting with a female friend last night of out state, she and her husband are swingers (they're mid-50s) and she said they have been going to parties regularly every weekend and have no intention of stopping because of Covid. Building immunity to it through exposure if their plan she says.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> For those wondering about the classless individuals that have been coughing and spitting on/at people, here’s one who was caught, arrested, and charged with at least one felony:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Redirect Notice
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There are more, but I’m just posting this one reminder: it IS illegal, and perpetrators could face jail time & fines.




This was from March 24th.

Here's quite the update:









						George Falcone's Selling of Masks Raises Eyebrows | Law & Crime
					

The pizzeria owner, who faces an ongoing criminal case for allegedly coughing on a supermarket employee, called the police on a Trentonian reporter who was writing about him selling masks from the restaurant.




					lawandcrime.com
				




Back in the quaint times when NJ had 3675 confirmed cases. They now have 156 142 confirmed cases.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Nebulous said:


> I was texting with a female friend last night of out state, she and her husband are swingers (they're mid-50s) and she said they have been going to parties regularly every weekend and have no intention of stopping because of Covid. Building immunity to it through exposure if their plan she says.



Yeah, people don't understand that this isn't how it works. You can't give yourself a "vaccine" to it by being around people with Coronavirus. You'll more likely catch it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ad_hoc said:


> This was from March 24th.
> 
> Here's quite the update:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> George Falcone's Selling of Masks Raises Eyebrows | Law & Crime
> 
> 
> The pizzeria owner, who faces an ongoing criminal case for allegedly coughing on a supermarket employee, called the police on a Trentonian reporter who was writing about him selling masks from the restaurant.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> lawandcrime.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Back in the quaint times when NJ had 3675 confirmed cases. They now have 156 142 confirmed cases.



Dude is a piece of work.


----------



## ad_hoc

We're seeing very low reports of deaths coming from the USA right now.

New cases every day dropped to 20k/day May 10th and have stayed there so new cases aren't really dropping.

Active cases have been steadily climbing. There were 900k active cases on May 1st and now there are 1.14 million.

And yet, death counts have been dropping rapidly. Today saw 500 deaths and yesterday was 600. That's only 2 days so I suppose we will see what tomorrow brings.

With the above numbers I would expect more deaths though.

Do you think with states like Florida controlling and manipulating the information they're giving out we're not seeing the full picture?

If New York is taken out of the data then the rate of infection is still continuing to climb throughout May. Yet, the death count is dropping.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

US always has deep dips in reported numbers on weekends. And today is Memorial Day, so this weekend was three days long. Tomorrow the numbers should hop back up again as reporting agencies return from vacation and play catch up on the stats.


----------



## GreyLord

ad_hoc said:


> We're seeing very low reports of deaths coming from the USA right now.
> 
> New cases every day dropped to 20k/day May 10th and have stayed there so new cases aren't really dropping.
> 
> Active cases have been steadily climbing. There were 900k active cases on May 1st and now there are 1.14 million.
> 
> And yet, death counts have been dropping rapidly. Today saw 500 deaths and yesterday was 600. That's only 2 days so I suppose we will see what tomorrow brings.
> 
> With the above numbers I would expect more deaths though.
> 
> Do you think with states like Florida controlling and manipulating the information they're giving out we're not seeing the full picture?
> 
> If New York is taken out of the data then the rate of infection is still continuing to climb throughout May. Yet, the death count is dropping.




I think Florida is controlling and in ways concealing information.  I think there are other states that are doing this as well.  

I find it a shame that they want things to be their way so badly that they would conceal data that could be used for science and medicine rather than actually admit what may be happening in their states and areas.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> Do you think with states like Florida controlling and manipulating the information they're giving out we're not seeing the full picture?



This is probably likely. Florida (and Georgia) could've just been stupid and got caught. Or, somehow people stopped dying as much for some reason, or are taking longer to die.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

In the USA, we basically have 100,000 deaths as of today. Just 500 less than 100,000 and those numbers are probably higher because many dead people aren't tested.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> And yet, death counts have been dropping rapidly. Today saw 500 deaths and yesterday was 600. That's only 2 days so I suppose we will see what tomorrow brings.
> 
> With the above numbers I would expect more deaths though.
> 
> Do you think with states like Florida controlling and manipulating the information they're giving out we're not seeing the full picture?




Though Theo already mentioned this... no, a dip for a couple days is not evidence of doctoring data.  We must note that getting from the death itself, though a chain of reports, to a graph or data you see, is a chain of human activity.  It has dips on weekends, and often spikes come Monday.

As an example, this is a graph of daily increase in cases in Massachusetts (from WBUR.org, a local NPR station).





It is... really spiky.  You don't want to draw any conclusions from change over a day or two.  You want to look at longer term trends to get an idea of what is happening overall.  In this graph, you see daily variation, but also a long term rise, and then a gradual falling off in new cases.


----------



## ad_hoc

Theo R Cwithin said:


> US always has deep dips in reported numbers on weekends. And today is Memorial Day, so this weekend was three days long. Tomorrow the numbers should hop back up again as reporting agencies return from vacation and play catch up on the stats.




Oh Memorial Day, that makes sense.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> Though Theo already mentioned this... no, a dip for a couple days is not evidence of doctoring data.  We must note that getting from the death itself, though a chain of reports, to a graph or data you see, is a chain of human activity.  It has dips on weekends, and often spikes come Monday.
> 
> As an example, this is a graph of daily increase in cases in Massachusetts (from WBUR.org, a local NPR station).
> View attachment 122290
> 
> It is... really spiky.  You don't want to draw any conclusions from change over a day or two.  You want to look at longer term trends to get an idea of what is happening overall.  In this graph, you see daily variation, but also a long term rise, and then a gradual falling off in new cases.




Yeah, I am used to seeing the spike on Monday which is why I found it odd.

A holiday in the US makes sense.

Still, deaths are trending down in general while cases are not.

I suppose we'll have to see what this week brings.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> Still, deaths are trending down in general while cases are not.




If you are talking nationwide?  There are many possible explanations.  Including:  NYC, California, and Boston and other early areas of breakout are getting a handle on things, and their health care systems are no longer quite as overwhelmed, and care is such that folks aren't dying.

Meanwhile, in other areas, cases are starting to pick up... but people aren't dying... yet.  People don't catch it and die on the same day.  They can take days or weeks to get from reported case to death. 

That's only a demonstrative example - I don't know what's actually happening.


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Or, somehow people stopped dying as much for some reason



What comes to mind immediately is, the newer cases are not nursing home residents, and more likely to get through it (but may take a while) in the end.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Eltab said:


> What comes to mind immediately is, the newer cases are not nursing home residents, and more likely to get through it (but may take a while) in the end.



Possibly combined with hospitals being less crowded, more ventilators, and so on.


----------



## Zardnaar

It's just the way pandemics work. Anyone vulnerable that gets it dies early

Eventually you start running out of vulnerable people so numbers fall. One way or another numbers going to eventually go down.

 If they can keep it out of rest homes that's going to help.

NZ active cases down to 22, 0 new cases. Job losses kicking in now.


----------



## Zardnaar

Somehow the new gamestore opened. Go and have a look tomorrow and support the local economy (beer, Theros, lunch). 

 Patriotic duty to spend.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> It's just the way pandemics work. Anyone vulnerable that gets it dies early




It is a vast oversimplification.  It isn't like the virus gets into a nation, and hits everywhere equally instantaneously, and all the vulnerable people die.  There's some pretty complicated dynamics between the spread of disease through populations over time, and the death rate as it penetrates new areas, which gets more complicated by social distancing efforts and medical care of varying quality.  End result is that you are very likely to see multiple peaks and valleys in the death rate that have little to do with particular vulnerability.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> It is a vast oversimplification.  It isn't like the virus gets into a nation, and hits everywhere equally instantaneously, and all the vulnerable people die.  There's some pretty complicated dynamics between the spread of disease through populations over time, and the death rate as it penetrates new areas, which gets more complicated by social distancing efforts and medical care of varying quality.  End result is that you are very likely to see multiple peaks and valleys in the death rate that have little to do with particular vulnerability.




Absolutely.

80% of the deaths in Canada have happened in long term care homes. 

That is why Canada has such a high death rate compared to the number of confirmed cases.


----------



## Deset Gled

ad_hoc said:


> That is why Canada has such a high death rate compared to the number of confirmed cases.




I posted this link about a month ago, but I think it bears repeating:

*








						U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)
					

In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.



					www.nytimes.com
				



*
Unfortunately, I can't find any story with updated data, probably because the data doesn't exist yet.  It can take months to get this compiled.  Next year this time, we'll be able to compare expected death rate to actually death rate vs. COVID numbers.  Until then, we're just guessing.   And I have to say, the fact that we're still "guessing" about the numbers to this degree disgusts me.


----------



## ad_hoc

Deset Gled said:


> I posted this link about a month ago, but I think it bears repeating:
> 
> *
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *
> Unfortunately, I can't find any story with updated data, probably because the data doesn't exist yet.  It can take months to get this compiled.  Next year this time, we'll be able to compare expected death rate to actually death rate vs. COVID numbers.  Until then, we're just guessing.   And I have to say, the fact that we're still "guessing" about the numbers to this degree disgusts me.












						Opinion | My Mother Died of the Coronavirus. It’s Time She Be Counted. (Published 2020)
					

Not having an accurate, honest, nationwide way to tally Covid-19 cases will only add to the current tragedy.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> And I have to say, the fact that we're still "guessing" about the numbers to this degree disgusts me.




So, haivng computers on all of our desks tends to make us think that getting data from point A to point B should be trivial.  It isn't.  Gathering data from _thousands_ of disparate physical world sources, from people who are, in fact, generally busy with keeping people alive, is not a lickety-split instant task.  

We live in a real world, with practical limitations.


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> So, haivng computers on all of our desks tends to make us think that getting data from point A to point B should be trivial.  It isn't.  Gathering data from _thousands_ of disparate physical world sources, from people who are, in fact, generally busy with keeping people alive, is not a lickety-split instant task.
> 
> We live in a real world, with practical limitations.




I am 100% with you on the practical limitations; I understand that data doesn't come quick and isn't perfect.

The part that am bothered by is that it seems not everyone actually wants the data to exist.  Florida, for instance, is using a different method to classify a death as being caused by COVID19 than the CDC's standard (and different from how they track deaths from the normal flu).  In fact, FL is using a standard that basically guarantees their reported number will be lower.  At that point, it's not a practical limitation, it's willfull misconduct.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

As I noted.

There’s a real disconnect between some leaders and their basic human decency.  There was a WH economic advisor being interviewed the other day who referred to workers as “human capital”.  Classic dehumanization.


----------



## ad_hoc

Well it's Tuesday and we didn't see an increase in reports to make up for the (long) weekend.

Only 700 deaths in the USA were reported today.

Florida reported only 500 new cases and 7 deaths.

To put this into comparative context Florida and Texas both have roughly as many confirmed cases per capita that Canada has.

Florida has almost half as many recorded deaths per capita as Canada. Texas has less than 1/3 as many deaths per capita.

Canada's death count is higher than expected due to long term care deaths but that is still a huge discrepancy.


----------



## Hussar

Considering Florida's demographics, you would kind of expect the death toll to be higher, no?


----------



## Eltab

Hussar said:


> Considering Florida's demographics, you would kind of expect the death toll to be higher, no?



Florida is very proud that they made a point to keep Corona OUT of the nursing homes and retirement communities (like The Villages).  So far, their efforts have been successful.


----------



## ad_hoc

Eltab said:


> Florida is very proud that they made a point to keep Corona OUT of the nursing homes and retirement communities (like The Villages).  So far, their efforts have been successful.












						As Florida nursing home deaths tick upward, widespread testing stalls
					

Universal testing is crucial to containing the virus in elder-care facilities. But Gov. Ron DeSantis says Florida doesn’t have the resources to carry it out.




					www.tampabay.com
				












						Florida governor reopening state while suppressing reporting of COVID-19 deaths
					

The Florida Department of Health is blocking medical examiners from reporting the accurate number of COVID-19 deaths.



					www.wsws.org


----------



## Umbran

And, we should remember that there's a lag between changes in behavior, and results.  So, Memorial Day weekend?  If there are results from that, we'll start seeing it in a week or two...


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> And, we should remember that there's a lag between changes in behavior, and results.  So, Memorial Day weekend?  If there are results from that, we'll start seeing it in a week or two...




We are already almost a month out from when most states started reopening though right?

Ontario, Canada saw their peak of active cases near the end of April at 6000.

It trended down to around 3500 by mid-May.

Stage 1 of reopening when into effect on May 19th. Cases are now trending back up now at 4000 active cases.

I would think that rise in numbers would be from reopening as well as nicer weather and quarantine fatigue. Those numbers make sense to me.

The reported numbers in the USA don't while we are also seeing accounts/accusations of numbers being suppressed or just not counted.

If the USA really is doing well with reopening then that's great but that just doesn't seem likely to me.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> If the USA really is doing well with reopening then that's great but that just doesn't seem likely to me.



I agree. Something doesn't add up, for me at least.


----------



## Zardnaar

0 cases again today with 0 people in hospital.

Borders not exactly open but exemptions have been made. Hollywood seems interested.









						Coronavirus: Film workers among 150 given exemptions to enter NZ amid border lockdown
					

Film workers are among a few thousand people allowed past New Zealand’s closed borders amid the Covid-19 lockdown.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




Getting some pizzas delivered. From Sunday you can have groups of up to 100. Schools are open.

 Campervan rental from $20 USD a day.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> We are already almost a month out from when most states started reopening though right?




"Most states"?  I haven't taken a survey.  And "started reopening" means different things in different places.  In Massachusetts, for example, we only started opening this week, and that does not include the city of Boston itself.

And, Memorial Day was just this weekend.  Its effects, if any, have not been seen yet.


----------



## Eltab

ad_hoc said:


> Florida governor reopening state while suppressing reporting of COVID-19 deaths
> 
> 
> The Florida Department of Health is blocking medical examiners from reporting the accurate number of COVID-19 deaths.
> 
> 
> 
> www.wsws.org



The venom and toxicity dripping out of this Author's pen leads me to believe that he took "Favored Enemy: Republicans".  He doesn't explain what the authorities are doing, how it is different from other States, nor why.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> The venom and toxicity dripping out of this Author's pen leads me to believe that he took "Favored Enemy: Republicans".




Dude.  Look at the name of the website.  You should not be surprised by their take on the matter.  And yes, the world being what it is, one has to be wary of strongly partisan sources of information.



> He doesn't explain what the authorities are doing...




This statement... is incorrect.  He gives several examples of what authorities are doing, and at least generally gives sources.  I quote from the article:

"A _Tampa Bay Times_ report on April 11 showed that the Florida Department of Health’s count of COVID-19 deaths was inaccurate and missing 10 percent of those recorded by medical examiners. "

"The medical examiners list has now been withheld by state officials for nearly two weeks. "

"Dr. Stephen Nelson, the chairperson of Florida’s Medical Examiners Commission, told the _Tampa Bay Times_ that state officials plan to remove causes of death and case descriptions. "

"In March, the _Miami Herald_ reported that the medical examiner’s office in Miami-Dade County was asked to restrict access to its death records. "

Oh, and this article is dated May 1.  To add to that - on May 18th, Florida fired the top data scientist tasked with tracking the epidemic for the state.  She claims it is because she refused to cook the data, the governor says otherwise.









						Florida Governor Defends Firing Of Top Data Scientist
					

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis lashed out about the firing of data scientist Rebekah Jones. DeSantis attacked Jones' claims that she created the state's highly praised COVID-19 dashboard portal.




					www.npr.org
				




That Florida is not doing a good job of reporting on coronavirus in the state seems pretty clear, even if one source of that information is of questionable.

But, Florida is not the only state that may be engaged in some data manipulation.









						6 states might be manipulating COVID-19 data as they reopen, reports suggest — here's what can skew the numbers
					

Several states have been accused of misrepresenting testing capacity and case numbers as well as silencing doctors as they lift coronavirus lockdowns.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> That Florida is not doing a good job of reporting on coronavirus in the state seems pretty clear, even if one source of that information is of questionable.



Yep.  There have been several links to reports regarding the suspect quality of Florida’s official Covid-19 reporting posted in this thread, including a few by me.


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> And, we should remember that there's a lag between changes in behavior, and results.  So, Memorial Day weekend?  If there are results from that, we'll start seeing it in a week or two...



Last weekend, we started having the aftermath of Mother's Day. Lot's of new patients, who got exposed on May 10th. Next week it'll be the result of people organizing "corona-parties", because of course they started doing them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Six days in a row with no new cases. One death from preexisting case taking the total to 22. 12 more recovered active cases 8. Lady who died was 96, had technically recovered but it was decided Covid was a contributing factor.

Went shopping first time in months
Partly to check out new gamestore part lunch part curious.

Seemed more or less normal. Quite a few about. Social distancing rules though. Means the gamestore can't run D&D nights.

Announcement June 22 about going to level 1. With a probable 4 month delay between sessions and the loss of 1 maybe 2 players might start new campaign or play Star Wars D6 until I can recruit a new player.

Covids also interrupted D&D supplies. Store can't get that much early on. He wants to set up AL and get a D&D night up and running.

 Random photo just because.






 Social distancing. Group of 3 is one bubble. Everyone else spaced out in a half circle.


----------



## Hussar

Sigh.  My ken has had about 30 new cases in the past week after a couple of weeks of zero cases.  Bit scary to be honest considering the kids just went back to school.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Sigh.  My ken has had about 30 new cases in the past week after a couple of weeks of zero cases.  Bit scary to be honest considering the kids just went back to school.




Japan iirc? Lack of testing perhaps.

Broke my bubble tonight with the inlaws. Went out to local bar/restaurant.





Kinda quiet but great night. Limited menu.
Went in early, $3 craft beers during happy hour

Dessert. Cookie with icecream.





Staff got 80% of their wage subsidies from government during lockdown. Place filled up later in the night.

Cookie was amazing. Very got similar to a brownie.  In April we lost 34000 jobs scaled up to America levels around 2 million.

Things been better but in the grand scheme of things can't complain. It's not normal but close enough.

Kind of the Sword of Damocles though. Will Covid come back, will the economy collapse?

Eat and drink now tomorrow might be terrible.


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> Lady who died was 96, had technically recovered but it was decided Covid was a contributing factor.




Oooo, that kind of reasonable talk over here in the US could get you classified as a fear-monger or sheep. 

I just had to listen to a friend talking about how someone died in a car accident and had tested positive for COVID-19 so was marked as umong the virus' victims. So that is why the US is doing better than the media claims. All he got from me was a heavy sigh.


----------



## Deset Gled

Istbor said:


> I just had to listen to a friend talking about how someone died in a car accident and had tested positive for COVID-19 so was marked as umong the virus' victims. So that is why the US is doing better than the media claims. All he got from me was a heavy sigh.




I want to live in the alternate reality where testing for COVID is so common for every dead (and live) body that cases like this are the biggest hurdle to accurate data.


----------



## NotAYakk

ad_hoc said:


> Well it's Tuesday and we didn't see an increase in reports to make up for the (long) weekend.
> 
> Only 700 deaths in the USA were reported today.
> 
> Florida reported only 500 new cases and 7 deaths.
> 
> To put this into comparative context Florida and Texas both have roughly as many confirmed cases per capita that Canada has.
> 
> Florida has almost half as many recorded deaths per capita as Canada. Texas has less than 1/3 as many deaths per capita.
> 
> Canada's death count is higher than expected due to long term care deaths but that is still a huge discrepancy.



Assuming you are only getting reliable tests from people who need hospital care, getting sick requires 2-14 days and getting sick enough to go to hospital often another few days.  Then another few days for a test turnaround.

So an increase in exposure over May 22-25 wouldn't start showing up until early June.

This graph:






is amazingballs.  It shows that Covid-19 in wastewater predict diagnosed Covid-19 cases *by a week* with an above 0.9 correlation.

That increase in C19 in wastewater means those people are infected and shedding virus.  And it takes a *week* after they are shedding virus that some subset of them show up, get tested, and the test results come back.

How long it takes to go from initial C19 exposure to shedding C19 out your bum is another question, but it isn't going to be negative days.  

Suppose it takes about 2 days to go from C19 exposure to it coming out your bum.  Then it will take 7 more days for you to be diagnosted.  Thus a 9 day lag.

May 22-25 is May 31 to 34, aka May 31 to June 3rd.

And like most exponential functions, the cost of the new infections isn't just the new infections, but all of the people they'll infect.


----------



## MoonSong

NotAYakk said:


> Assuming you are only getting reliable tests from people who need hospital care, getting sick requires 2-14 days and getting sick enough to go to hospital often another few days.  Then another few days for a test turnaround.
> 
> So an increase in exposure over May 22-25 wouldn't start showing up until early June.
> 
> This graph:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> is amazingballs.  It shows that Covid-19 in wastewater predict diagnosed Covid-19 cases *by a week* with an above 0.9 correlation.
> 
> That increase in C19 in wastewater means those people are infected and shedding virus.  And it takes a *week* after they are shedding virus that some subset of them show up, get tested, and the test results come back.
> 
> How long it takes to go from initial C19 exposure to shedding C19 out your bum is another question, but it isn't going to be negative days.
> 
> Suppose it takes about 2 days to go from C19 exposure to it coming out your bum.  Then it will take 7 more days for you to be diagnosted.  Thus a 9 day lag.
> 
> May 22-25 is May 31 to 34, aka May 31 to June 3rd.
> 
> And like most exponential functions, the cost of the new infections isn't just the new infections, but all of the people they'll infect.



Worse, the thing takes anything from 1 to 3 weeks to show symptoms. So it can take up to a month for a new contagion to be detected. And people are contagious while showing no symptoms.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

MoonSong said:


> Worse, the thing takes anything from 1 to 3 weeks to show symptoms.



..._assuming you’re not among the asymptomatic majority._


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ..._assuming you’re not among the asymptomatic majority._




Yeah, I think people don't often think of the difference between 'pre-symptomatic' and 'asymptomatic'.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ..._assuming you’re not among the asymptomatic majority._




That, of course, is part of the beauty of sewage testing*.  You don't get to individuals, but you get a handle on the community, whether folks are showing symptoms or not.



*That's a phrase nobody expects to see, isn't it?


----------



## Istbor

ad_hoc said:


> Yeah, I think people don't often think of the difference between 'pre-symptomatic' and 'asymptomatic'.




I think many are thinking you get the sniffles or a little sick, so those that do, can simple use their judgement to quarantine. Not realizing that asymptomatic could potentially mean someone not even feeling slightly off, but still contagious.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> I think many are thinking you get the sniffles or a little sick, so those that do, can simple *use their judgement* to quarantine.




(emphasis mine)

Ha!  As if we had evidence that people did that!  Ha, I say!

(Also, our culture is such that those on the lower end of the economic spectrum really don't have the choice to use judgement - if they aren't forced out of work such that unemployment is available, they _have_ to work to put food on the table and keep a roof overhead.)


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> That, of course, is part of the beauty of sewage testing*.  You don't get to individuals, but you get a handle on the community, whether folks are showing symptoms or not.



And it seems reasonable that the amount of Covid-19 RNA you spew into the stew is proportional to how much is coming out your mouth.

Ain't that a beautiful image.  Just let is sit there, and taste it.

Asymptomatic people spread the virus *less* than symptomatic people (per person) and they stop emitting C19 RNA sooner, but they suspect more are transmitted by asymptomatic people (because they don't know to self isolate).  Hence encouraging everyone to wear masks.


----------



## Istbor

Umbran said:


> (emphasis mine)
> 
> Ha!  As if we had evidence that people did that!  Ha, I say!
> 
> (Also, our culture is such that those on the lower end of the economic spectrum really don't have the choice to use judgement - if they aren't forced out of work such that unemployment is available, they _have_ to work to put food on the table and keep a roof overhead.)



Yeah, I felt I was opening myself up with that statement. 

And correct, if your situation is go to work while a little under the weather, or lose your job/have hours cut, it's going to be tough not to choose money that keeps your family going over public safety.


----------



## NotAYakk

Istbor said:


> Yeah, I felt I was opening myself up with that statement.
> 
> And correct, if your situation is go to work while a little under the weather, or lose your job/have hours cut, it's going to be tough not to choose money that keeps your family going over public safety.



Sure, which is why we have generous emergency unemployment insurance, working on a national paid-sick-leave policy, health insurance not connected to your job, and generous loans for companies who don't fire their workers during this pandemic.

Oh wait, you mean the USA.  Well, get rich or die to make the rich richer.  Good luck.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Also, our culture is such that those on the lower end of the economic spectrum really don't have the choice to use judgement - if they aren't forced out of work such that unemployment is available, they _have_ to work to put food on the table and keep a roof overhead.



There was an Indian person who observed a few weeks ago that self-quarantining snd social distancing were luxuries, both in short supply in his country.

They’re not exactly common elsewhere, either.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

This whole year is getting screwed up by Covid-19. Everything's gone to hell in America.


----------



## Eltab

Deset Gled said:


> I want to live in the alternate reality where testing for COVID is so common for every dead (and live) body that cases like this are the biggest hurdle to accurate data.



I want to see the reality that a COVID test is available for say $10 (price of a pregnancy test) on the shelf at any Walgreens / CVS / Rite-Aid / &c, with no need for a prescription first, the thing is reliable, simple enough to be used at home, and provides an answer in a few minutes.

Invent something with most of those features and the general population will solve the problem themselves.


----------



## ad_hoc

Eltab said:


> I want to see the reality that a COVID test is available for say $10 (price of a pregnancy test) on the shelf at any Walgreens / CVS / Rite-Aid / &c, with no need for a prescription first, the thing is reliable, simple enough to be used at home, and provides an answer in a few minutes.
> 
> Invent something with most of those features and the general population will solve the problem themselves.




Or just, you know, free.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Well...this is a surprise.








						The Chinese CDC now says the coronavirus didn't jump to people at the Wuhan wet market — instead, it was the site of a superspreader event
					

We still don't know the origin of the new coronavirus. But according to the Chinese CDC, it isn't the wet market in Wuhan.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




*Summary*: animals are the Wuhan wet market tested negative for Covid-19, and several of the earliest cases had no ties to the wet market or Wuhan whatsoever.  IOW, the odds of Wuhan’s wet market being the point of original infection are approaching zero- they’re thinking what we thought was the initial outbreaks was just a super-spreader event.  The lack of known connections to Wuhan for some of the earliest infections also shoots holes in the lab accident theory.


----------



## Eltab

ad_hoc said:


> Or just, you know, free.



We all wish.  But the staff making the kits expects to be paid, needs lights to see what they are doing, &c - so I'll be content with something easily affordable.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

It still might wind up being like flu shots- free...with insurance.


----------



## ad_hoc

Eltab said:


> We all wish.  But the staff making the kits expects to be paid, needs lights to see what they are doing, &c - so I'll be content with something easily affordable.




There is a way for a society to collect funds in order to pay for things that are for the good of that society.


----------



## Umbran

Yes, but tax policy is not within scope.

Please folks.  Keep it on point.  Thanks.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Eltab said:


> I want to see the reality that a COVID test is available for say $10 (price of a pregnancy test) on the shelf at any Walgreens / CVS / Rite-Aid / &c, with no need for a prescription first, the thing is reliable, simple enough to be used at home, and provides an answer in a few minutes.
> 
> Invent something with most of those features and the general population will solve the problem themselves.



The problem is, Coronavirus tests aren't as easy to determine results for than as pregnancy tests. I imagine if they could be administered by laymen, they would do that.


----------



## Zardnaar

Down to a single active case. No new cases for a week. 








						Covid-19: No new cases in New Zealand for one full week
					

There are no new cases of Covid-19 in the country today and just one active case left, as New Zealand marks a week since the last confirmed case.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				



 Looks like it's all bit wiped out.


----------



## evileeyore

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There was a WH economic advisor being interviewed the other day who referred to workers as “human capital”.  Classic dehumanization.



"Human capital" is an economic term.  It has a specific meaning and while many have mistaken it in a "dehumanizing" manner, that's not how it's meant or how it was used.


----------



## Umbran

evileeyore said:


> "Human capital" is an economic term.  It has a specific meaning and while many have mistaken it in a "dehumanizing" manner, that's not how it's meant or how it was used.




Unless you know the speaker in question, I don't see as you have and greater standing than anyone else to say what was meant.

The fact that it is an economic jargon term does not mean it is not dehumanizing.  If you say "human capital" rather than "people" you are surely removing the fact that they are humans beings with value beyond what they do economically from consideration - that is dehumanizing.  Literally.

If nothing else, if you go on national television, in full knowledge that the entire nation might see it, and you are not aware of how your jargon terms may come across and avoid using them, you are dehumanizing, by displaying your complete lack of care for the audience's _human_ sensibilities.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> Down to a single active case. No new cases for a week.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19: No new cases in New Zealand for one full week
> 
> 
> There are no new cases of Covid-19 in the country today and just one active case left, as New Zealand marks a week since the last confirmed case.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Looks like it's all bit wiped out.



Yay!

Well, "new cases" rarely catches asymptomatic carriers.  But asymptomatic carriers either heal, or they infect someone who becomes symptomatic.  And then contact  tracing - targeted isolation - testing can backtrack and eliminate the asymptomatic.

So "all but".  A week isn't enough to know it is wiped out.

Now the question: are you going to offer refuge to people who are willing to fly in, then quarantine while being tested for 2+ weeks?  Could replace some tourism dollars in the short term!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

evileeyore said:


> "Human capital" is an economic term.  It has a specific meaning and while many have mistaken it in a "dehumanizing" manner, that's not how it's meant or how it was used.



I have a degree in economics.  I know the term.  That it is academic in origins and intended to be used in formal economics does not make it not dehumanizing.  It is, just in a neutral way.

That’s why it’s an economic term not one generally used in _interviews.  _Despite its origins, using it outside of a forum where you can give it proper context leads to bad optics.

In an interview regarding a subject where you already have a context of some people complaining they are being undervalued and sacrificed for the sake of profits, you get _terrible _optics.

I mean, imagine using “human capital” while directly addressing restless strikers.  Do you think the results would calming or inflammatory?


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> Yay!
> 
> Well, "new cases" rarely catches asymptomatic carriers.  But asymptomatic carriers either heal, or they infect someone who becomes symptomatic.  And then contact  tracing - targeted isolation - testing can backtrack and eliminate the asymptomatic.
> 
> So "all but".  A week isn't enough to know it is wiped out.
> 
> Now the question: are you going to offer refuge to people who are willing to fly in, then quarantine while being tested for 2+ weeks?  Could replace some tourism dollars in the short term!




 They are already doing that. Borders not 100% sealed. Some German engineers and Avatar movie production types have made it in. Citizens can also get in although flights might be hard. 

 They're looking at opening up soon with Australia and Pacific Islands. By soon September. 

 Hollywood production also looking at NZ. 

 They may have missed some cases but no one's been admitted en masse, healthcare system was never under any stress.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I have a degree in economics.  I know the term.  That it is academic in origins and intended to be used in formal economics does not make it not dehumanizing.  It is, just in a neutral way.
> 
> That’s why it’s an economic term not one generally used in _interviews.  _Despite its origins, using it outside of a forum where you can give it proper context leads to bad optics.
> 
> In an interview regarding a subject where you already have a context of some people complaining they are being undervalued and sacrificed for the sake of profits, you get _terrible _optics.
> 
> I mean, imagine using “human capital” while directly addressing restless strikers.  Do you think the results would calming or inflammatory?




 It's not what you say but how you say it. 

 Basic communication 101.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> It's not what you say but how you say it.



Eh, it's both. If you say something like, "Old people should die for the economy" like this guy:








						Texas Lt. Governor: Old People Should Volunteer to Die to Save the Economy
					

According to Dan Patrick “lots of grandparents” are willing to sacrifice themselves for the cause.




					www.vanityfair.com
				



It's not always a matter of how you say something. 

(Just a small correction. My point here is that it is what you say and how you say it.)

Human capital is an economic term, which I know from taking an economy class this year. Sure, they should've chosen different language, but doctors don't care much about making people feel good as explaining the situation.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Eh, it's both. If you say something like, "Old people should die for the economy" like this guy:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Texas Lt. Governor: Old People Should Volunteer to Die to Save the Economy
> 
> 
> According to Dan Patrick “lots of grandparents” are willing to sacrifice themselves for the cause.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.vanityfair.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's not always a matter of how you say something.
> 
> (Just a small correction. My point here is that it is what you say and how you say it.)
> 
> Human capital is an economic term, which I know from taking an economy class this year. Sure, they should've chosen different language, but doctors don't care much about making people feel good as explaining the situation.




I prefer ablunt doctor/vet.

  Empathy or the ability to feign it is useful for a politician.

Here the opposition rolled their leader and spent the week scoring own goals and self inflicted wounds.

Jacindas approval ratings through the roof.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

I prefer doctors who tell you exactly what the odds are and the facts, which is way better than any doctor who sugarcoats the problem. The WH economist probably should've explained what they were talking about. In a time of crisis, it's normally best to make sure people know what you're talking about. Confusion and fingerpointing is the opposite of what we need now.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I prefer doctors who tell you exactly what the odds are and the facts, which is way better than any doctor who sugarcoats the problem. The WH economist probably should've explained what they were talking about. In a time of crisis, it's normally best to make sure people know what you're talking about. Confusion and fingerpointing is the opposite of what we need now.




 Yeah difference between doctor and politician.

 Just got the daily update. No new cases.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

3,231 overall confirmed cases in my county in Washington. Only 585 have recovered, and we have 93 deaths. Yesterday, we had 91 deaths, and just over 3,100 cases. 
It's not looking good in my city.


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> 3,231 overall confirmed cases in my county in Washington. Only 585 have recovered, and we have 93 deaths. Yesterday, we had 91 deaths, and just over 3,100 cases.
> It's not looking good in my city.




That's a lot.

How big is the city?

I think the Greater Toronto Area (6 million population) has somewhere around 2600 active cases and it is being treated as a hot spot here as the numbers are starting to climb back up.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> How big is the city?



250,000 people in the county. The largest percentage of people in the county are from my city. That's about 1 in 70 people in my city that have Covid-19.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Nothing wrong with being blunt.  There IS something wrong when you choose your words poorly, inflaming a situation instead of mitigating tensions.

To continue the Doctor/Vet analogy, it’s one thing to say “I’m sorry, but Mary’s condition is terminal.” and quite another to say “Congrats on your impending inheritance- Mary’s a goner for sure!”


----------



## ccs

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Eh, it's both. If you say something like, "Old people should die for the economy" like this guy:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Texas Lt. Governor: Old People Should Volunteer to Die to Save the Economy
> 
> 
> According to Dan Patrick “lots of grandparents” are willing to sacrifice themselves for the cause.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.vanityfair.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's not always a matter of how you say something.




How much do you want to bet that this guy is nowhere near anyone or anything that could possibly expose him to the coronavirus?


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> 3,231 overall confirmed cases in my county in Washington. Only 585 have recovered, and we have 93 deaths. Yesterday, we had 91 deaths, and just over 3,100 cases.
> It's not looking good in my city.




 I see something about reopening in June. 

 Korea has closed schools again. I'm guessing lockdown wasn't that strict.

 I wouldn't reopen until active cases are 0 or so low you know everyone with it and they're in isolation and random testing turns up 0 cases.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ccs said:


> How much do you want to bet that this guy is nowhere near anyone or anything that could possibly expose him to the coronavirus?



Definitely. Like Trump, hiding from Covid-19 in the White House, with testing every day for everyone who works or visits there. I'm sure that Governor is hiding from the virus if he can. People younger than him have died. People younger than I have died, and I'm 18, with asthma.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> I see something about reopening in June.
> 
> Korea has closed schools again. I'm guessing lockdown wasn't that strict.
> 
> I wouldn't reopen until active cases are 0 or so low you know everyone with it and they're in isolation and random testing turns up 0 cases.



Korea did a pretty good job at locking down. They've just had some people who break the rules, and cause more cases. 
I wouldn't open up until it's gone, but that's not going to happen in America.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> To continue the Doctor/Vet analogy...




So, my wife is a veterinarian.  Her practice is dedicated to geriatric and hospice care, and end of life.

You people may be different, but in general, when facing death of a loved one, when the patient or client may be needing to make decisions from a state of anticipatory grief, tact and careful choice of wording is what serves most folks best. 

Vets with her concentration that are blunt don't stay in practice long.  Those that are tactful get 5-star reviews.  Take that for what you will.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> So, my wife is a veterinarian.  Her practice is dedicated to geriatric and hospice care, and end of life.
> 
> You people may be different, but in general, when facing death of a loved one, when the patient or client may be needing to make decisions from a state of anticipatory grief, tact and careful choice of wording is what serves most folks best.
> 
> Vets with her concentration that are blunt don't stay in practice long.  Those that are tactful get 5-star reviews.  Take that for what you will.




 Our vets fairly blunt. People working under him are really nice. He has some amount of tact though just tends towards the clinical side of things. 

 He's been doing it for a while, I guess you would get jaded after 30 odd years.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

One more death today in my county.


----------



## tomBitonti

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Nothing wrong with being blunt.  There IS something wrong when you choose your words poorly, inflaming a situation instead of mitigating tensions.
> 
> To continue the Doctor/Vet analogy, it’s one thing to say “I’m sorry, but Mary’s condition is terminal.” and quite another to say “Congrats on your impending inheritance- Mary’s a goner for sure!”




A thing:  “Terminal” is poor word choice.  A condition can be terminal while having an expected end of life anywhere from hours to months to years.  I had a cat with progressive kidney failure that was in this state.

‘Better: ”Mary’s condition can be treated, but only to partially restore function.  With extensive care, you might extend Mary’s life by several months.  Mary has some discomfort now, but that will become gradually worse.”

Communication has to be specific (enough), and accurate (enough), and spoken to truly be informative without injecting noise.

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Zardnaar

Another day of 0 cases.

Long weekend at local pub for meal. Hand sanitizer everywhere and the waiter was good with making you sign in for tracing or using the app.

For a Monday it's quite busy. Sister in law family went to the resort of Queenstown and it was busier than pre Covid apparently.

Limited to 100 people in pub at once. Might be the last hurrah before things fall apart. Next public holiday is in October after wage subsidy runs out.

D&D is a maybe in 3 weeks.

 Only 600 tests today due to holiday
 Peaked in the 7000+ range.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

tomBitonti said:


> A thing:  “Terminal” is poor word choice.  A condition can be terminal while having an expected end of life anywhere from hours to months to years.  I had a cat with progressive kidney failure that was in this state.



Certainly.

My maternal grandmother was diagnosed with terminal cancer and was told to go home and put her affairs in order.

..._ten years later_, she died on Christmas.

I was just pointing out a difference in how using carefully chosen words in a stressful situation differs from being cavalier with your language.


----------



## GreyLord

So, Dungeon of the Mad Mage was just not working as great for us.  We ended up in Skullport and decided to end it there.  Instead, going for a more narrative system and started on the FFG Star Wars RPG in a campaign.  First session went Great!  Primarily using Edge of Empire with other books open if people want.

We have a Wookie Jedi Apprentice player
A Bounty Hunter
A Smuggler
A Droid Medic
and an Ace Pilot.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

GreyLord said:


> So, Dungeon of the Mad Mage was just not working as great for us.



I've run this! We kind of put it on pause indefinitely, as they leveled up to fast, as I was trying to make the fights interesting.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

So, in my county today, we have another death, and 3,585 cases overall. Keeps going up.


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> So, in my county today, we have another death, and 3,585 cases overall. Keeps going up.




Sounds like quite the outbreak.

Hope you're safe.

Luckily we only have 25 or so cases in my area.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> Sounds like quite the outbreak.
> 
> Hope you're safe.
> 
> Luckily we only have 25 or so cases in my area.



It is a big outbreak. People won't stay home or wear masks. Marijuana dealers are considered essential here, and are still open. 

I'm safe. I've stayed home for 3 months, now. I wish we could be opening up, but these people won't stay home, making me have to longer. 

Lucky.


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> It is a big outbreak. People won't stay home or wear masks. Marijuana dealers are considered essential here, and are still open.
> 
> I'm safe. I've stayed home for 3 months, now. I wish we could be opening up, but these people won't stay home, making me have to longer.
> 
> Lucky.




They're considered essential here too. As well as liquor stores.

Cant just cut people off from the drugs they're accustomed to taking/using.


----------



## NotAYakk

The practical alternative to considering them essential is accepting bootlegging/smuggling.  And that would probably spread it faster than official stores.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> Cant just cut people off from the drugs they're accustomed to taking/using.




Alcohol DTs are not to be sneezed at - they can send you to the hospital.  When this started, the idea of having all the detoxing alcoholics show up just as surges of covid-19 hit was a pretty horrible scenario.


----------



## Deset Gled

NotAYakk said:


> The practical alternative to considering them essential is accepting bootlegging/smuggling.  And that would probably spread it faster than official stores.




I'd also point out that when people try to cut their own hair, they occasionally end up looking goofy for a while.  When people try to make alcohol in their bathtub, they occasionally go blind.

Here in PA, they shut down the liquor stores at the start of quarantine, but beer stores were considered "essential" and stayed open.  I thought that was weird, but no more weird that the fact that PA already requires them to be two different stores (and beer can't be sold at most supermarkets and no convenience stores).


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Pennsylvania's liquor laws are archaic and befuddling, absolutely. It didn't help that their online store was woefully unequipped to handle sales. I just ordered from local distilleries until the stores reopened.



Deset Gled said:


> Here in PA, they shut down the liquor stores at the start of quarantine, but beer stores were considered "essential" and stayed open.  I thought that was weird, but no more weird that the fact that PA already requires them to be two different stores (and beer can't be sold at most supermarkets and no convenience stores).


----------



## Zardnaar

They shut the booze shops here but supermarkets sell beer and wine. 

 They eventually started delivering spirits. 

 Illegal drugs were in short supply as dealers couldn't get supplies under lockdown. 


 One province had booze stores open as they're not allowed to be for profit and count as charities which were essential. 

 Wife works for freight company to the drivers were buying spirits there and supplying friends and family via delivery. 

 All contact free.


----------



## Zardnaar

Might be fully reopening sooner than expected.

0 new cases again, it's been almost two weeks of 0 cases.









						Jacinda Ardern brings forward level 1 decision to next Monday
					

Jacinda Ardern says the country could move to alert level 1 as soon as next week.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Some locals decided to protest in support of events in America. Makes isolation semi pointless.


----------



## tomBitonti

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Certainly.
> 
> My maternal grandmother was diagnosed with terminal cancer and was told to go home and put her affairs in order.
> 
> ..._ten years later_, she died on Christmas.
> 
> I was just pointing out a difference in how using carefully chosen words in a stressful situation differs from being cavalier with your language.




Ah.  I misunderstood the purpose of your example.  I agree 100% with your statement “carefully chosen words ...”

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## GreyLord

AcererakTriple6 said:


> It is a big outbreak. People won't stay home or wear masks. Marijuana dealers are considered essential here, and are still open.
> 
> I'm safe. I've stayed home for 3 months, now. I wish we could be opening up, but these people won't stay home, making me have to longer.
> 
> Lucky.



I do not quite understand this  but the same is going on in our area.  Some store owners opened and dared the police to ticket them, and the police of course did not.  Now our cases are starting to go up exponentially again, though not as high as yours.  We've had several dozen cases in the past week already, up from almost zero the weeks prior.


----------



## cmad1977

GreyLord said:


> I do not quite understand this but the same is going on in our area. Some store owners opened and dared the police to ticket them, and the police of course did not. Now our cases are starting to go up exponentially again, though not as high as yours. We've had several dozen cases in the past week already, up from almost zero the weeks prior.




My freedom to infect others outweighs everything else I guess.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz




----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

GreyLord said:


> I do not quite understand this  but the same is going on in our area.  Some store owners opened and dared the police to ticket them, and the police of course did not.  Now our cases are starting to go up exponentially again, though not as high as yours.  We've had several dozen cases in the past week already, up from almost zero the weeks prior.



Sorry, the layout of that post you were quoting was following the layout of the person i had quoted. I was saying that the person I was quoting was lucky for not having a ton of cases in their area.


----------



## ad_hoc

The state of the pandemic in Canada:

Ontario and Quebec's active case count has plateaued in the last week. With reopening both could rise again at any time but for now it looks fine.

The rest of the country has very few active cases (around 500 total).


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

I heard about that Canadian doctor that spread the disease to a lot of people by traveling.


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I heard about that Canadian doctor that spread the disease to a lot of people by traveling.




Yeah, in New Brunswick.

They had 0 cases for 2 weeks and then bam, a bunch of cases. 

Hopefully they get it back under control.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> Yeah, in New Brunswick.
> 
> They had 0 cases for 2 weeks and then bam, a bunch of cases.
> 
> Hopefully they get it back under control.



Yeah. This circumstance is proof that one person making bad choices can ruin things for a lot more people.


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yeah. This circumstance is proof that one person making bad choices can ruin things for a lot more people.




He was a doctor too which is part of the reason it got so bad.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Yeah. And, Canada has done a pretty good job at handling the pandemic, and then this person came along and decided to screw everyone over.


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yeah. And, Canada has done a pretty good job at handling the pandemic, and then this person came along and decided to screw everyone over.




Yes and no.

Quebec is a mess.

Ontario dropped the ball on testing which is why the national per capita testing is now lagging behind many other countries.

Both provinces are opening up too early. Here is a disgraceful picture of a park in Toronto after park restrictions were lifted. Even the mayor was there and had his mask off. This after months of him scolding people for not following guidelines.

The biggest problem of them all is how hard long term care homes have been hit. 80% of deaths in Canada come from those homes. That is why the death rate is so high compared to the number of cases.


----------



## ad_hoc

California, Texas, and Florida seem to be the states that are picking up steam in number of cases.

California was doing quite well as a well populated state that was hit early. They have a similar population to Canada but had fewer cases until now.

Texas and Florida were both pretty quiet for a long time. 

I think we're beginning to see the effects of reopening. Warmer states might have more of an issue as people have been gathering in the nice weather for longer.


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> And, we should remember that there's a lag between changes in behavior, and results.  So, Memorial Day weekend?  If there are results from that, we'll start seeing it in a week or two...





I think we have the results...









						Coronavirus in Florida: A record 1,419 new cases reported after 1,317 the previous day
					

Florida has reported an increase of 1,419 COVID-19 cases over the past 24 hours after confirming another 1,317 new cases the previous day. It's the highest one-day increase in the state since the start of the pandemic.




					www.local10.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ate in a restaurant for the first time since February, partly out of necessity.  We’re still in partial lockdown here in Tx, so it wasn’t a decision I made on a whim.  I was running some errands when my BP meds kicked in harder than usual, so I needed to find a bathroom AND a meal so I wouldn’t pass out and/or piss myself.  So I hit a little vietnamese chain place on my route.

It was a little odd, being told where to sit and seeing the plastic shielding and all the staff in masks, but also strangely comforting.  These people were taking things seriously and doing what they could.  It wasn’t my favorite pho, but I tipped like it was.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Finally got all the stuff for making reusable cloth masks assembled and ready to go, including some flexible plastic covered metal nose bands...and an additional idea I had.

I went to Joann’s Fabrics and got some Dritz Cord stops like these:








						Cord Locks/Stops - Dritz
					

For neck drawstrings of upper outerwear (jackets, hoodies, etc.) larger than children’s size 12. For waist or hem drawstrings of upper outwear larger than children’s size 16.



					www.dritz.com
				




They’re not the ones I was hoping to get- I wanted a double cord design- but that’s what they had in store, so I bought them. They’re _just _big enough for our plan.

The idea is that, instead of an over the ear design, we’re doing a single cord mask design that uses paracord, tied in back of your head.  But since my Mom is having some shoulder and arm issues, she might have trouble tying a good knot behind her head.  With the cord stops, however, she can pinch, pull, and release for a perfect fit in seconds.


----------



## Zardnaar

If anyone wants disposable masks they are available in New Zealand. There were some N95 ones as well.

A 50 pack was around $80 USD plus postage so idk how that compares or if you can even buy locally. N95s (made in NZ) cost more. 

IDK if shortages are still a thing. I can post them and can trade for D&D books.

Applies to anything in short supply for ENworlders. I'll do it at cost plus postage.

American dollar has gone down, 1 NZD is 0.68 USD I can look locally or you can go to mightyape.co.nz or trademe.co.nz.

Quick and dirty conversion is take 1/3rd off for an approximate price.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Finally got all the stuff for making reusable cloth masks assembled and ready to go, including some flexible plastic covered metal nose bands...




Where'd you find those?  I need to upgrade my masks, as my glasses get fogged something fierce...


----------



## Istbor

Deset Gled said:


> I think we have the results...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus in Florida: A record 1,419 new cases reported after 1,317 the previous day
> 
> 
> Florida has reported an increase of 1,419 COVID-19 cases over the past 24 hours after confirming another 1,317 new cases the previous day. It's the highest one-day increase in the state since the start of the pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.local10.com




Probably my natural pessimism but, I have this lingering suspicion that this will all sneak back in a big way as the 'old news COVID' tries to work its way back into the American news cycle. 

Not saying the other stuff dominating the news isn't important by any means. It is. Just, I worry about stuff sometimes is all. 

I think the 24-hour news cycle was a big mistake.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Where'd you find those?  I need to upgrade my masks, as my glasses get fogged something fierce...







__





						This item is unavailable - Etsy
					

Find the perfect handmade gift, vintage & on-trend clothes, unique jewelry, and more… lots more.




					www.etsy.com


----------



## Deset Gled

Istbor said:


> Probably my natural pessimism but, I have this lingering suspicion that this will all sneak back in a big way as the 'old news COVID' tries to work its way back into the American news cycle.
> 
> Not saying the other stuff dominating the news isn't important by any means. It is. Just, I worry about stuff sometimes is all.




I'm more worried that people will misrepresent the time delay and blame all the new cases on protests and not on reduced restrictions.


----------



## Istbor

Deset Gled said:


> I'm more worried that people will misrepresent the time delay and blame all the new cases on protests and not on reduced restrictions.




I had a similar discussion earlier today with a co-worker. It certainly is possible.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Deset Gled said:


> I'm more worried that people will misrepresent the time delay and blame all the new cases on protests and not on reduced restrictions.



I went to a protest yesterday in my town to support BLM, and I was surprised to see that everyone was wearing a mask, in a town where masks aren't required, and less than half of the population of my city has said that they wear masks. 

Protests can and will spread Covid-19 if they're not properly protected with masks and social distancing.


----------



## Ryujin

ad_hoc said:


> He was a doctor too which is part of the reason it got so bad.




A doctor who lied about why he had to cross the bridge; ie. said "seeing patients" instead of "going shopping."


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dannyalcatraz said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This item is unavailable - Etsy
> 
> 
> Find the perfect handmade gift, vintage & on-trend clothes, unique jewelry, and more… lots more.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.etsy.com



Caveat: since I just got these nose pieces a day or so ago, I obviously haven’t tried them out yet.  But they seem firmer than the ones in the cheapo generic disposable masks we bought to supplement our small stash of noticeably better name-brand disposable masks.  The generics almost refuse to stay in place, but the name-brand ones sit like a well-trained dog.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Protests can and will spread Covid-19 if they're not properly protected with masks and social distancing.




Yeah.  If you have a week with thousands of people gathering, and they aren't protected...

...And they are getting hit with tear gas and such so they are crying coughing, and spewing mucus...

You are apt to get a spike out of that, too.  Spikes in cases for _EVERYONE_!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Spikes in cases for _EVERYONE_!



Everybody dance now!


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Yeah.  If you have a week with thousands of people gathering, and they aren't protected...
> 
> ...And they are getting hit with tear gas and such so they are crying coughing, and spewing mucus...
> 
> You are apt to get a spike out of that, too.  Spikes in cases for _EVERYONE_!



Yeah, tear gas and other unnecessary police brutality in the response to these protests are definitely not helping and keeping people from spreading/catching Covid-19.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Everybody dance now!




More like...


----------



## Zardnaar

Protesting during a pandemic is just stupid IMHO. Guess what's gonna get blamed if there's an uptick in Covid cases.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Protesting during a pandemic is just stupid IMHO. Guess what's gonna get blamed if there's an uptick in Covid cases.



It is getting blamed, but these are getting blamed more than the protests against the shutdown. 

It is stupid that we *have *to protest during a pandemic. It's absolutely idiotic that we have to be doing these protests. It's a bad idea, but have you every tried to delay anger? Ever tried to tell someone that they're not allowed to be angry until it's safe to be angry again? It just doesn't work. People are angry about police brutality now, and if we want anything changed, we're not going to wait until people have forgotten about this problem due to another thing going wrong in 2020. 

Sure, it's likely to increase cases, especially with people packed into crowds by police "kenneling" tactics, and so on, but it's a problem, it's not going away if we wait for it to, and action must be taken now to change this.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This kinda surprised me:

Top: nose piece from deconstructed generic disposable mask

Middle: garbage bag twist tie

Bottom: the nose pieces I bought from Etsy.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Protesting during a pandemic is just stupid IMHO. Guess what's gonna get blamed if there's an uptick in Covid cases.




When would be a convenient time for protesting?  Makes it pretty easy for certain governments to ram through policies when the population is in lockdown.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Protesting during a pandemic is just stupid IMHO.




So, in life you will often find that there are conflicting priorities, important matters that call for mutually exclusive actions, and you have to make choices.  When your biggest issue is, in fact, the disease, then yes, protesting would be stupid.  For some folks, that's not the only big issue in life.  

Maybe the guy who halfway around the world should not pass judgement on what's a valid big issue for others, hm?  Just a suggestion.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’m doing a little pantry cleaning, and, to my great annoyance, I found that one of the shelf-stable Almond milk cartons I bought at the beginning of the Covid-19 grocery hoarding nonsense is expired.

That happens.  Oh well- the other one is good until this September.

Except the expired one has a “Best By” label of_ June 2019._  It was months expired when I bought it.

I accept that it’s partly my fault for not reading labels on BOTH boxes, but I’m still ticked at whomever it is didn’t do their stock rotation job.

(First World Problems.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> So, in life you will often find that there are conflicting priorities, important matters that call for mutually exclusive actions, and you have to make choices.  When your biggest issue is, in fact, the disease, then yes, protesting would be stupid.  For some folks, that's not the only big issue in life.
> 
> Maybe the guy who halfway around the world should not pass judgement on what's a valid big issue for others, hm?  Just a suggestion.




Protesting mostly a waste of time IMHO and has been since the 90's.

It's also often counter productive.


  It's mostly just a way to blow of steam, polititians ignore them for the most part.

The protest they do care about is the ballot box and local government.

The success rate is stupidly low iirc, politics papers at uni said they fail about 75%-90% of the time.

Intellectually I understand, pragmatically there's better things to do with your time that are more effective.


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> Protesting mostly a waste of time IMHO and has been since the 90's.
> 
> It's also often counter productive.
> 
> 
> It's mostly just a way to blow of steam, polititians ignore them for the most part.
> 
> The protest they do care about is the ballot box and local government.
> 
> The success rate is stupidly low iirc, politics papers at uni said they fail about 75%-90% of the time.
> 
> Intellectually I understand, pragmatically there's better things to do with your time that are more effective.



Welcome to the "Most Unpopular Person In This Thread" group!  (We have cookies.).


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Protesting mostly a waste of time IMHO and has been since the 90's.
> 
> It's also often counter productive.



Some are counterproductive, but is also an integral part to American society. I don't want this to turn into a politics debate, but protesting is a right granted by America's first amendment. It is important.


Zardnaar said:


> It's mostly just a way to blow of steam, polititians ignore them for the most part.



Not blow off steam. That's ranting or venting. Protesting is a way to try to catch attention to get things changed.


Zardnaar said:


> The success rate is stupidly low iirc, politics papers at uni said they fail about 75%-90% of the time.



Protests got us the Civil Rights Movement, Women's Right to Vote, and many other changes in America. You're in New Zealand, right? Maybe it hasn't changed much there, but it does change things here. 


Zardnaar said:


> Intellectually I understand, pragmatically there's better things to do with your time that are more effective.



I literally have nothing to do better with my time. The fact that you and I are on this website is proof of this fact.


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> Welcome to the "Most Unpopular Person In This Thread" group!  (We have cookies.).




 Yep don't smash that like button. 

 I'm more interested in what works. Taking to the streets generally doesn't.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> I'm more interested in what works. Taking to the streets generally doesn't.



Any evidence for this?


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Some are counterproductive, but is also an integral part to American society. I don't want this to turn into a politics debate, but protesting is a right granted by America's first amendment. It is important.
> 
> Not blow off steam. That's ranting or venting. Protesting is a way to try to catch attention to get things changed.
> 
> Protests got us the Civil Rights Movement, Women's Right to Vote, and many other changes in America. You're in New Zealand, right? Maybe it hasn't changed much there, but it does change things here.
> 
> I literally have nothing to do better with my time. The fact that you and I are on this website is proof of this fact.




 It also caused a lot of blowback leading to events in the 70s and 80s that ultimately got us here. That blowback destroyed a few things that would be useful over the last 40 years.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Any evidence for this?




I posted a link on another site where things are allowed to be discussed but it's also politics at University where things like that can be studied.

But the success rate if revolutions are bad, street protests even worse.

In America you need the house, presidency, and senate and have a law to clear the supreme court.

To amend the constitution requires 75% of the states to sign off.

The military also doesn't support drastic change putting it mildly.

So to change things you need to win power at the state, local and federal level. Electoral boundaries can get redone every 10years, 2010 was the last time it was done iirc.

Problem is if street protests escalate and others join in you tend to make things a lot worse shirt term.

That's assuming your side wins.

Normally a big event is required. War, depression, government collapse etc.

  What needs to be done and what gets done are two different things. Things are falling apart faster than 1929 and I don't disagree to much with this.
Umair Haque: Is America really screwed?


 I read different experts a d we have our own here


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> The success rate is stupidly low iirc, politics papers at uni said they fail about 75%-90% of the time.




You quote a range so wide as to be useless, likely made up out of thin air, and not compared to a control.  



> Intellectually I understand




Oh?

The issue at hand has a lot to do with comfortable people judging others.

And you are... sitting half a world away, unaffected, judging others.  So, lacking the understanding of that basic irony, I don't feel you understand much of it at all.  

Be that as it may, the effectiveness of protests is not germane to the covid-19 discussion.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> You quote a range so wide as to be useless, likely made up out of thin air, and not compared to a control.
> 
> 
> 
> Oh?
> 
> The issue at hand has a lot to do with comfortable people judging others.
> 
> And you are... sitting half a world away, unaffected, judging others.  So, lacking the understanding of that basic irony, I don't feel you understand much of it at all.
> 
> Be that as it may, the effectiveness of protests is not germane to the covid-19 discussion.




We also wiped out Covid by not doing large scale crowd gatherings using emergency powers.

May as well protest though because containment was a failure anyway.

Not sure how much leeway but there's a lot of systematic failures dating back 40 odd years.

Numbers weren't made up, I can dig up the relevant things if I have to. Failure rates are really high though, espicially for violence.

Also crossed over into revolutions. The links are buried in a locked 1000 response thread on another forum.

We predicted riots back in March. We were two weeks off in the timeline thinking they would start mid June.

Lockdown talks started in January and we had similar conversions in March.


----------



## ad_hoc

Zardnaar said:


> Normally a big event is required. War, depression, government collapse etc.




.................................


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> It also caused a lot of blowback leading to events in the 70s and 80s that ultimately got us here. That blowback destroyed a few things that would be useful over the last 40 years.



I wasn't alive back then, so you're going to have to give specifics.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Numbers weren't made up, I can dig up the relevant things if I have to. Failure rates are really high though, espicially for violence.




Folks have been trying to address these and related issues for decades to centuries.  Since they are as yet unsolved, it is reasonable to say that _all_ failure rates are really high.  So, don't bother to pull up your numbers, as they are not meaningful.  Changing the world is hard.  Duh.

What you continue to fail to recognize is that covid-19 _is not the only problem in the world_.  Folks here have problems you do not.  Your passing judgement on how they prioritize them... is probably not appropriate.

And I will leave it at that.


----------



## 5atbu

Zardnaar said:


> Just as well it's a forum and I used it in it's anti technology context.
> 
> Since this isn't a university lecture il file it between I already know that/don't care.



The Luddites make a really interesting model to build an RPG faction.


----------



## NotAYakk

So, to be extremely clear, the protests have generated results already.









						Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, City Officials Cutting $100 Million-$150 Million From LAPD Budget, Funds To Be Reinvested In Communities Of Color
					

As he began to speak about reforming the LAPD during his Wednesday evening press conference, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti called this an “urgent moment” for the city, “an infle…




					deadline.com
				




LA has cut 100+ million dollars from their police budget and redirected it to community support.

Not calling that a direct result of these protests would be stretching it.

Is that direct result worth the people who will die from Covid-19 spread?  Well, suppose LA's attempt is successful.  And US homicide by cop rates falls to UK per-capita rates times the relative murder rates of the two countries.

That would be almost 1000 people per year saved from death by police officer per year.  So that wouldn't be nothing.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

57 Buffalo Police Resign From Riot Unit In Protest Of Officers' Suspension
					

Two officers were suspended without after they were filmed pushing a 75-year-old protester to the ground.




					www.forbes.com
				




This is a problem. 57 people resign because 2 people got in trouble for assaulting an elderly man.


----------



## cmad1977

AcererakTriple6 said:


> 57 Buffalo Police Resign From Riot Unit In Protest Of Officers' Suspension
> 
> 
> Two officers were suspended without after they were filmed pushing a 75-year-old protester to the ground.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forbes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is a problem. 57 people resign because 2 people got in trouble for assaulting an elderly man.




More loyalty to their uniform than to the people they ‘swore’ to protect.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

cmad1977 said:


> More loyalty to their uniform than to the people they ‘swore’ to protect.



This is why there are protesters. This is why I went protesting. Most cops are good. It's a hard, risky job, but they get power, and they can abuse it. When we try to make it so they can't abuse their power anymore, they complain and turn peaceful protests into riots.


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> This is why there are protesters. This is why I went protesting. Most cops are good. It's a hard, risky job, but they get power, and they can abuse it. When we try to make it so they can't abuse their power anymore, they complain and turn peaceful protests into riots.




First, we shouldn't talk about politics because it is against the board rules.

but since you are making statements like that - no, actually, all cops are bad.

Here are just some of the atrocities they've been committing in the last week. And these are the ones caught on film. They do much worse when they know there are no cameras.

*Mod Edit:* I'm sorry, but that video isn't appropriate, and I had to remove it.  ~Umbran


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> This is a problem. 57 people resign because 2 people got in trouble for assaulting an elderly man.




So, this isn't about the pandemic.

But, there's an element I recently learned about that may be important enough to some to matter.

57 people resigned from their roles on the Emergency Response Team (ERT_, but _NOT_ from the Buffalo Police Department.  Every one of them are still employed by the BPD, as far as I am aware.

As for them resigning "in solidarity"... that may be a bit of a spin.  Because, it seems that just before they resigned, the Buffalo Police Benevolent Society announced that it would _NOT_ be covering fees for legal defense of anyone on the Buffalo ERT or SWAT teams for actions during the protests.









						All officers in the Buffalo Police Emergency Response Team resign from roles on team
					

The entire force of the Buffalo Police Emergency Response Team has resigned as of Friday afternoon, in support of the two officers who were suspended without pay following an incident in Niagara Square on Thursday evening.




					www.wkbw.com
				




So, this may be less about principled "solidarity" than it is about covering themselves from legal repercussions of their actions.


----------



## Umbran

Now, recognizing that I myself was part of the tangent.- we really don't want this turning into a thread about the protests, or cops.  We should probably focus back on the original topic, please and thank you for your patience on the matter.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NotAYakk said:


> So, to be extremely clear, the protests have generated results already.



Yep.

In other parts of the USA, codes of conduct/engagement/use of force are being revised for the first time in decades.  Some are adding civilian review boards to those investigations of incidents involving police use of force.  Some are considering requiring professional licensing for law enforcement officers, expanded basic training (beyond the typical 19 weeks*), and meaningful psych evaluation screening.

Hell, more places are contemplating expanding the kinds of criminal backgrounds that would render one ineligible to become a LEO.

All since the killing-inspired protests began.

That, some would argue, is not just results, but worth the shared risk of an extension of the pandemic crisis.




* among the shortest in 1st world nations


----------



## Olrox17

ad_hoc said:


> actually, all cops are bad



Wow. I'm not from the US, so I don't really have a horse in this race, just watching from far away, but such an all-encompassing, generalizing, sweeping statement can't possibly be true.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Now, recognizing that I myself was part of the tangent.- we really don't want this turning into a thread about the protests, or cops.  We should probably focus back on the original topic, please and thank you for your patience on the matter.



Posted while I was typing.

Agreed- back to our regularly scheduled hand-washing and social distancing!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Olrox17 said:


> Wow. I'm not from the US, so I don't really have a horse in this race, just watching from far away, but such an all-encompassing, generalizing, sweeping statement can't possibly be true.



It isn’t.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I wasn't alive back then, so you're going to have to give specifics.




Can't really say. Rules etc.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> First, we shouldn't talk about politics because it is against the board rules.
> 
> but since you are making statements like that - no, actually, all cops are bad.
> 
> Here are just some of the atrocities they've been committing in the last week. And these are the ones caught on film. They do much worse when they know there are no cameras.



It's not politics, but isn't on topic. We really should get back to the topic of the thread. (It is very clearly not true to say that all cops are bad)

Well, anyway, there are now nearly 2 million cases in the USA. Deaths now are around 111,000. 




__





						coronavirus cases - Google Search
					





					www.google.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Generally I follow the money.









						America is in terminal decline, and that's dangerous for New Zealand
					

OPINION: It's painful to watch such a beautiful country failing to live up to its potential.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




Our debt ratio post Covid is gonna be about 1/3rd USA pre Covid.

Relative to the budget we're spending about half the USA amount.

That amount of debt is similar to WW1/2 levels.


----------



## Morrus

Lets keep this thread to talking about the coronavirus pandemic please folks!


----------



## Zardnaar

Looking at being virus free next week. 









						'Can't quite believe it': New Zealand tiptoes towards elimination of coronavirus
					

With an anonymous woman in Auckland the last confirmed case, scientists expect to be able to declare next week that the nation is virus-free




					www.google.com
				




 All restrictions except border controls. Decision expected 4pm tomorrow effective from Wednesday.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> We also wiped out Covid by not doing large scale crowd gatherings using emergency powers.
> 
> May as well protest though because containment was a failure anyway.
> 
> Not sure how much leeway but there's a lot of systematic failures dating back 40 odd years.
> 
> Numbers weren't made up, I can dig up the relevant things if I have to. Failure rates are really high though, espicially for violence.
> 
> Also crossed over into revolutions. The links are buried in a locked 1000 response thread on another forum.
> 
> We predicted riots back in March. We were two weeks off in the timeline thinking they would start mid June.
> 
> Lockdown talks started in January and we had similar conversions in March.




But, again, and I HAVE to keep pointing this out to you @Zardnaar, I live in a country with nearly 8 times your population, with a population density probably 100 times greater, an easy 40 minute flight from Shanghai and a bit over 2 hours to Beijing, with millions of Chinese tourists arriving on a daily basis before the travel restrictions which weren't implemented until mid-April, where there is NO LOCKDOWN at all.  Legally, the Japanese government cannot lock down the country.  They do not have that power.  The Japanese Constitution does not include a war measures act because Japan's not allowed to go to war with anyone.  There is no Riot Act in Japan.  At best, the government could request that people stay home.

Yet, we've had few deaths and the lowest rates of the G7.  If you remove that cruise ship from the equation, Japan has had about 300 deaths, TOTAL.  

So, you can keep talking about how the New Zealand solution is the best way all you like, but, it's simply not true and it's ignoring facts.  

Or, to put it another way, we've largely wiped out Covid without any emergency powers and a barely noticeable lockdown.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> But, again, and I HAVE to keep pointing this out to you @Zardnaar, I live in a country with nearly 8 times your population, with a population density probably 100 times greater, an easy 40 minute flight from Shanghai and a bit over 2 hours to Beijing, with millions of Chinese tourists arriving on a daily basis before the travel restrictions which weren't implemented until mid-April, where there is NO LOCKDOWN at all.  Legally, the Japanese government cannot lock down the country.  They do not have that power.  The Japanese Constitution does not include a war measures act because Japan's not allowed to go to war with anyone.  There is no Riot Act in Japan.  At best, the government could request that people stay home.
> 
> Yet, we've had few deaths and the lowest rates of the G7.  If you remove that cruise ship from the equation, Japan has had about 300 deaths, TOTAL.
> 
> So, you can keep talking about how the New Zealand solution is the best way all you like, but, it's simply not true and it's ignoring facts.
> 
> Or, to put it another way, we've largely wiped out Covid without any emergency powers and a barely noticeable lockdown.




I don't think there's a one size fits all solution.

Japan's also done very very little testing.

If they randomly tested say 100000 people and see if there's any evidence of community spread. The government was hell-bent on the Olympics going ahead until well into April.

Our early curve was also the same as most nation's. Size doesn't seem to be a major factor other larger nation's have successfully done better. 

 How much early transmission and response to it seems key. 

 There's also dumb luck factor and some nation's have very low numbers due to lack of testing.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I really think long-internalized Japanese customs involving mask wearing for health reasons- and other cultural factors- are major reasons why Japan avoided an Italian-style covidpocalypse.


----------



## Umbran

The most amazing thing about covid-19 is that it has magically transformed everyone into epidemiologists.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I really think long-internalized Japanese customs involving mask wearing for health reasons- and other cultural factors- are major reasons why Japan avoided an Italian-style covidpocalypse.




 I think that's a large reason.

 Gonna get shot online if you bring up cultural factors though. NZs more egalitarian than UK/USA. Prime Minister is the rugby team captain and she sold it as a team effort evoking the war years. Country fell in line in about 4 days.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> The most amazing thing about covid-19 is that it has magically transformed everyone into epidemiologists.




Well they were already all doctors so not a large step.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> The most amazing thing about covid-19 is that it has magically transformed everyone into epidemiologists.



Without even infecting them!

Hey, people in charge of handling these crises are often not much more qualified to handle this than I am.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Without even infecting them!
> 
> Hey, people in charge of handling these crises are often not much more qualified to handle this than I am.




Well for some if them you could replace with a brick and get better results. 

The brick would sit there and do nothing. That's an improvement over some nation's.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> The most amazing thing about covid-19 is that it has magically transformed everyone into epidemiologists.











						Everyone's an Epidemiologist
					






					xkcd.com
				










			https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/everyones_an_epidemiologist_2x.png


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

So it looks like more of Covid-19’s symptoms and deadlier effects are linked to excessive clotting.








						Many of the coronavirus' most mysterious and dangerous symptoms have one thing in common: blood clots. This isn't solely a respiratory infection.
					

Doctors are increasingly seeing blood clotting due to the coronavirus. It can be associated with fatal symptoms like strokes.




					www.yahoo.com
				





They still don’t know _why_ the virus causes clots, and the article points out that sometimes- as in the case of Nick Cordero- the blood thinners used to treat the clotting result in terrible side effects.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

...of course.








						CDC: People are calling poison control after rubbing themselves and their food with bleach to prevent the coronavirus
					

One third of CDC survey respondents engaged in unsafe cleaning practices, like using bleach to clean food.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> So it looks like more of Covid-19’s symptoms and deadlier effects are linked to excessive clotting.



I have got to find an Essential eye doctor: my first pass on this, I thought it read "linked to excessive _clothing_" .


----------



## Janx

Eltab said:


> I have got to find an Essential eye doctor: my first pass on this, I thought it read "linked to excessive _clothing_" .



Same here. I blame auto-correct in my brain.


----------



## ad_hoc

Active cases in Canada peaked on May 30th at 35 000. They have now dropped to 33 600.

Yesterday saw the first day where resolved cases were greater than new cases. 1050 resolved cases vs 700 new cases.

The Rt value has been under 1 for 2 weeks now. The epidemiologists have said that if it stays under 1 for 1 more week it is a sign that the reopening strategy is sound.


----------



## Olrox17

Eltab said:


> I have got to find an Essential eye doctor: my first pass on this, I thought it read "linked to excessive _clothing_" .



So I wasn’t the only one!


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Olrox17 said:


> So I wasn’t the only one!



Me too!


----------



## Zardnaar

Waiting confirmation but it looks like our last case has recovered.

Feb 28th-June 8th. Now we find out if we missed any or if it can recur now it's officially winter/flu season.

Alert level 1 announcement in 3 hours. Social distancing has collapsed anyway. Protests kinda killed it off.

Confirmation









						No active cases and no new cases of Covid-19 in NZ
					

The ministry says they were notified that the remaining case has been symptom free for 48 hours and is regarded as recovered.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> Waiting confirmation but it looks like our last case has recovered.
> 
> Feb 28th-June 8th.
> 
> -snip-
> 
> Confirmation
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No active cases and no new cases of Covid-19 in NZ
> 
> 
> The ministry says they were notified that the remaining case has been symptom free for 48 hours and is regarded as recovered.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz



I'm going to be an optimist:

HOORAY !!!


----------



## ccs

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ...of course.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CDC: People are calling poison control after rubbing themselves and their food with bleach to prevent the coronavirus
> 
> 
> One third of CDC survey respondents engaged in unsafe cleaning practices, like using bleach to clean food.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




That's natural selection at work.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ccs said:


> That's natural selection at work.



And people say evolution doesn't exist. 

(My county just hit 100 deaths)


----------



## ccs

AcererakTriple6 said:


> (My county just hit 100 deaths)




Looks like my own is officially at 102 deaths out of 821 cases & 169 hospitalizations to date.  Datas a couple of days old.


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> Looks like my own is officially at 102 deaths out of 821 cases & 169 hospitalizations to date.  Datas a couple of days old.



Are they only testing sick people in hospital?

We had 22 deaths out of 1500 cases and they tested around 270k over 5% of the population.  That's around 1.5% death rate mostly over 70 with youngest death at 62.


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Are they only testing sick people in hospital?




(shrugs)
Without digging further & then worrying about things I can't really control I couldn't tell you.  
Supposedly here in Ohio we were/are doing quite well.  I presume that this is due in part to 1) being one of the states that did a good job of shutting things down fairly early & fairly completely (we're no NZ, but vs the rest of the USA....), 2) spinning the data in whatever ways seems most advantageous.  They have said that state-wise testing is not where they'd like it to be.

I do think that our re-opening plan was a bit soon , a bit haphazard, & with vague wordings.  
For example:  They opened things up before figuring out important details concerning things like day care.  Strikes me that if you're going to send everyone back to work you should have a plan for what they're supposed to do with their kids 1st.....  
And then there's the idiocy of getting a haircut.  One week, early in the opening, hospitals were allowed to start preforming elective surgeries again.   When the Governor was asked about things like Barbershops the reply was that they were still looking at how to do that safely.  :/   Yes, you could go get cut open in a facility where your Covid odds are guaranteed to be dramatically higher - even if we really are doing better than others - for non-essential reasons.   But you couldn't get a haircut.
Everyones like; The answers you wrap your barber in mask/gloves/gown/constant cleaning & hand washing/limit # of people in the shop at any given time, etc, wear a mask yourself, & touch as few surfaces as possible....
Several weeks later?  Guess what the official answer was?  

And here we are in early June & we have assorted groups starting to sue over the various re-opening details.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ccs said:


> I do think that our re-opening plan was a bit soon



Understatement of the decade. Most health officials warned against it. We opened up while we were hitting the peak of cases. Most places didn't shut down well enough.


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> (shrugs)
> Without digging further & then worrying about things I can't really control I couldn't tell you.
> Supposedly here in Ohio we were/are doing quite well.  I presume that this is due in part to 1) being one of the states that did a good job of shutting things down fairly early & fairly completely (we're no NZ, but vs the rest of the USA....), 2) spinning the data in whatever ways seems most advantageous.  They have said that state-wise testing is not where they'd like it to be.
> 
> I do think that our re-opening plan was a bit soon , a bit haphazard, & with vague wordings.
> For example:  They opened things up before figuring out important details concerning things like day care.  Strikes me that if you're going to send everyone back to work you should have a plan for what they're supposed to do with their kids 1st.....
> And then there's the idiocy of getting a haircut.  One week, early in the opening, hospitals were allowed to start preforming elective surgeries again.   When the Governor was asked about things like Barbershops the reply was that they were still looking at how to do that safely.  :/   Yes, you could go get cut open in a facility where your Covid odds are guaranteed to be dramatically higher - even if we really are doing better than others - for non-essential reasons.   But you couldn't get a haircut.
> Everyones like; The answers you wrap your barber in mask/gloves/gown/constant cleaning & hand washing/limit # of people in the shop at any given time, etc, wear a mask yourself, & touch as few surfaces as possible....
> Several weeks later?  Guess what the official answer was?
> 
> And here we are in early June & we have assorted groups starting to sue over the various re-opening details.




 Yeah I've got a friend in Ohio. The governor was getting positive press not to long ago. Made the news here via the BBC.


----------



## Umbran

The 7 day rolling average of new cases in Massachusetts looks like this:





(graph from public radio station WBUR)


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> The 7 day rolling average of new cases in Massachusetts looks like this:
> 
> View attachment 122657
> (graph from public radio station WBUR)




That is promising.

According to this site there are still 18 000 active cases which is a lot I think for the population.









						United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Yeah I've got a friend in Ohio. The governor was getting positive press not to long ago. Made the news here via the BBC.




Yeah, I heard the BBC piece.  He deserves it.  Overall he's doing a pretty good job.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> According to this site there are still 18 000 active cases which is a lot I think for the population.




The question is how they determine the number of "active" cases.  The page you gave lists a dashboard I'm familiar with as the basis for its numbers, but that dashboard does not give "active cases" - that's not a number the state tracks, because it is not well-defined.  So, your website is deriving that result, and I'd need to know how to comment.

As of two days ago, we had 1,415 cases in hospitals.  

Massachusetts has a population of 6.9 million people.


----------



## Istbor

I have a concern.

While the number of new cases each day in the US seems to be slightly going down (some days spiking back up), it is mostly pretty consistent. ~20k a day. 
The number of deaths though seems to be dropping much more dramatically. 

Does this mean we have a handle on it, and enough space in hospitals to adequately care for our serious cases? Or perhaps we are in for a rise in deaths as well, but haven't hit that time threshold. OR! Even darker are we running low on at-risk people. I don't think the last one, that is just obligatory hyperbole. I would expect we would have had much more death if that were the case. 

I suppose I don't know for sure how to feel. Positive that we are finding our stride in this, or worry that things will take a downturn, or worse, that data is being deliberately manipulated to show that re-opening is the correct choice and is working. 

Apologies, but I can be a bit of a negative Nancy about certain things.


----------



## NotAYakk

Isbor, deaths *lag* infections by about 2 weeks, give or take.

Right now, the "heavy hit" areas pulled off successful distancing (like NYC).  Their numbers are falling.  The "less heavy hit" are making up for it, and have relatively explosive growth; but because we are adding, BIG NUMBER shrinking plus SMALL NUMBER exploding = BIG NUMBER shrinking slowly.

In the hard hit areas, the most vulnerable and exposed got burnt.  The remaining vulnerable are hiding, because they where selected for hiding.  Meanwhile, less serious cases who hid from ERs are getting tested, reducing the rate at which their numbers have fallen.

The future problem lies in either reignition of a hard hit area (NYC is about 25% infected, so it can repeat what happened before if you reopen), or more likely that areas that haven't been hard hit and haven't eliminated the virus continue to have numbers explode.

With deaths lagging infections by 2-3 weeks, and diagnosis lagging infection by a week, deaths are a 3+ week trailing indicator of things getting bad.  And you have to pay attention to *regional deaths*, not national; national deaths are dominated by the areas the virus has done a burn-through wave of.  The next areas likely to burn are ticking up from 1 death per week, to 1 death per day, to 2 deaths per day.  With no effective distancing, and a 3 week lag, if an area has a doubling time of 3 days, that is 7 doublings "baked in"; there could already be enough people infected to be killing 100+ per day even if lockdown was perfect today.

OTOH, if their modest social distancing spreads doubling to 5 days, that is only 4 doublings, or 16x "baked in".  A large swing, and leaves time for policy to change if there is an explosion of cases starting.

NYC burned brightly because it had a crazy spread rate of 2x every 2 days or something.  By the time they hit 1 death/day, there where 10 doublings "backed in" (21/2 = 10.5), or a 1000-fold increase in deaths.

Background *caution* and spread out population gives time for a response to an exploding local epidemic.  And it doesn't have to be perfect for this to be useful -- even if your measures result in Re over 1, so long as an epidemic doesn't sleep its way to 1000s of dead per day, you can choke it off.

Now, what happens if Re floats just above 1?  You get a constant simmer and burn of dead people, but no spikes.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> I have a concern.
> 
> While the number of new cases each day in the US seems to be slightly going down (some days spiking back up), it is mostly pretty consistent. ~20k a day.
> The number of deaths though seems to be dropping much more dramatically.
> 
> Does this mean we have a handle on it, and enough space in hospitals to adequately care for our serious cases?




It can be hard to say - looking at the overall number in such a large country as the US can be misleading.  An overall trend could be level, while it is rising in one place while dropping in another.  Boston, for example, has a stead decline in its number of cases per day.  Meanwhile, Texas and Florida are trending up.  

As others have said - deaths lag behind detected cases. SO, those areas of rising cases are apt to see deaths also rise in the not-too-distant future.



> I suppose I don't know for sure how to feel.




I'd be surprised if you were sure how to feel.  It is a still-developing situation.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

There are definitely areas of the country where cases are falling, but there are also places where they're raising steadily. In my home county, we're still increasing by around 200 cases every day, and we've been on lockdown for more than 3 months now.


----------



## ad_hoc

Right now it looks like California, Texas, and Florida have the highest growth rates. 

California has never hit a peak, it's just growing and up to 2700/day on average right now. The same is true of Texas, steady growth.

Florida spiked early and then had a sharp decline in cases/day. They have ramped back up though and are now at their previous peak and set to go past it.


----------



## NotAYakk

Ontario is down to 240 cases/day, and 90% of them are in one city (Toronto) and 75% of them are medical care (old folks homes included) related.

So 24 cases/day for 8 million (give or take) people (depending on how widely you define "Toronto").  Plus others asymptomatic, of course.

Good news:

Areas with exhaustive contact tracing are finding asymptomatic infected people (people who catch C19 and get better without symptoms), and more importantly, are not finding infections in turn from them.   Presymptomatic people (people who have C19, and before they develop symptoms) are a different story.

So contract tracing based on people with symptoms and positive tests (even a runny nose) should be effective at making Re plummit; have their contacts isolate and get tested.  (By going after their as-yet asymptomatic contacts, we catch presymotomatic people before they start infecting others).

Social distancing and the rise of summer means that traditional colds are dying off; so *everyone* with *any *cold-type symptoms gets tested, you have a good chance of being able to choke this thing off.

Add in modest social distancing (no indoor choir singing!  Masks for service workers!  Working from home when possible!) and ramp up the economy without megadeath.  Maybe.

---

This is one of the reasons behind "flatten the curve".  It bought time. We know more about how it spreads, we have more PPE, we have hospitals that know how to treat it, we have tests to detect it.  Now we can drop Re *more efficiently* than we could in March.

And if we keep Re under 1.0 and this thing dies out.

Now, the number of additional infected during the die out phase is (1/(1-Re)).  So an Re of 0.9 isn't that useful (as we get 10x more infected before it dies out).  An Re of 0.5 means we get 2x more infected, and one of 0.25 means we get 33% more infected.  OTOH, our learning and testing and contact tracing gets better as numbers fall and time passes; so even an Re of 0.9 means it doesn't *get worse* (per day), and if costs are low enough we can sustain that and start applying improved measures.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Out of curiosity, does anyone know if is there's a difference between a "presymptomatic" and an "asymptomatic" case _before_ a person gets sick/better; or is that something that can't be determined until after the case resolves?


----------



## MoonSong

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Out of curiosity, does anyone know if is there's a difference between a "presymptomatic" and an "asymptomatic" case _before_ a person gets sick/better; or is that something that can't be determined until after the case resolves?



I'm not sure... I'm going to ask the one health expert in my life later. Maybe it is that a pre-symptomatic person will show some signs in their body that show the disease is developping while the asymptomatic will be otherwise in perfect health just happens to be contagious?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

MoonSong said:


> I'm not sure... I'm going to ask the one health expert in my life later. Maybe it is that a pre-symptomatic person will show some signs in their body that show the disease is developping while the asymptomatic will be otherwise in perfect health just happens to be contagious?



Pretty much, though some researchers are now suggesting the asymptomatic may be almost non-contagious, and “asymptomatic spread” may in fact be “*pre*symptomatic spread,”

I’m dubious of this in the light of the US Navy’s issues with the virus, but THEY had the complicating factor of tight, enclosed living/working space meaning even the mildly contagious had a greater chance of infecting others.


----------



## Istbor

Umbran said:


> It can be hard to say - looking at the overall number in such a large country as the US can be misleading.  An overall trend could be level, while it is rising in one place while dropping in another.  Boston, for example, has a stead decline in its number of cases per day.  Meanwhile, Texas and Florida are trending up.
> 
> As others have said - deaths lag behind detected cases. SO, those areas of rising cases are apt to see deaths also rise in the not-too-distant future.
> 
> 
> 
> I'd be surprised if you were sure how to feel.  It is a still-developing situation.




Fair. I understand the several week lag time, but maybe let my more recent thoughts override that reality check. Worry that this slow burn we are at could become a flare once again if we grew too complacent. 

I did have my first chance at eating at a restaurant since early this year. Ate outside with ample space from any other groups. There were still some, mostly older folk who had masks for before and after consuming their food. Good that people are still being cautious. 

I believe my county is set to possibly move to phase 2 near the 12th. Much of the rest of the state reopened without much of a plan.


----------



## Umbran

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Out of curiosity, does anyone know if is there's a difference between a "presymptomatic" and an "asymptomatic" case _before_ a person gets sick/better; or is that something that can't be determined until after the case resolves?




In terms of being able to know if you are one or the other?  No.  To casual observation, they are indistinguishable.

Which, of course, is a problem when you are trying to get people to do the right thing.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> There are definitely areas of the country where cases are falling, but there are also places where they're raising steadily. In my home county, we're still increasing by around 200 cases every day, and we've been on lockdown for more than 3 months now.




 American lockdown is very lax. It will reduce the spread but won't choke it off. 

 Read yesterday another meat plant in Utah had around 25% of the staff infected. 

 We spent almost 5 weeks in level 4 lockdown. They closed almost everything. First week it was everything including online stuff. Supermarkets and pharmacy were open along with corner stores as they were essential. Supermarkets operated on one in one out and controlled foot traffic. 

 Then we had 2 weeks of level 3. Contact free takeaways were allowed here. 

 Then a month of level 2. Restaurants we're allowed to reopen with groups up to 10. Then they relaxed the rules to allow groups of 100. Schools reopened and business were allowed to reopen.  You had to sign in at restaurants. 

 Went to level 1 on midnight Monday. Mostly border controls. 

  American lockdowns seem to be our level 2.5. Big box retail didn't reopen until level 2, takeaways and delivery were allowed level 3.


----------



## NotAYakk

Most of Ontario just hit level 2.5 NZ (schools closed, groups of up to 10 allowed outside home, hair salons with PPE, etc).  Toronto and some areas near the USA are excluded.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> American lockdown is very lax. It will reduce the spread but won't choke it off.



Yes, but that's more than a bit of an understatement. A more accurate statement is  "The American lockdown was a disaster that reduced the spread of Covid-19, but was not initiated soon enough or broadly enough to be effective to the point that was needed."


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yes, but that's more than a bit of an understatement. A more accurate statement is  "The American lockdown was a disaster that reduced the spread of Covid-19, but was not initiated soon enough or broadly enough to be effective to the point that was needed."



And we had the complications of misinformed imperfect compliance and deliberate noncompliance.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And we had the complications of misinformed imperfect compliance and deliberate noncompliance.



Oh, and the protests against the lockdown.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yes, but that's more than a bit of an understatement. A more accurate statement is  "The American lockdown was a disaster that reduced the spread of Covid-19, but was not initiated soon enough or broadly enough to be effective to the point that was needed."




That's more like most of the world.

  Each person getting 60 000 calories heading for the hills for a month would help a lot. Not really viable though. They shut down 60%+ of the economy and did a wage subsidy. Subsidy will run out just after the election in September.

Looks like the economy will bounce back faster than expected and the bad parts will be towards the lower end of the doom and gloom scenarios (11%-25% unemployment).

No one really knows. Data from 1918-20 isn't that relevant now.


----------



## Ryujin

NotAYakk said:


> Ontario is down to 240 cases/day, and 90% of them are in one city (Toronto) and 75% of them are medical care (old folks homes included) related.
> 
> So 24 cases/day for 8 million (give or take) people (depending on how widely you define "Toronto").  Plus others asymptomatic, of course.
> 
> Good news:
> 
> Areas with exhaustive contact tracing are finding asymptomatic infected people (people who catch C19 and get better without symptoms), and more importantly, are not finding infections in turn from them.   Presymptomatic people (people who have C19, and before they develop symptoms) are a different story.
> 
> So contract tracing based on people with symptoms and positive tests (even a runny nose) should be effective at making Re plummit; have their contacts isolate and get tested.  (By going after their as-yet asymptomatic contacts, we catch presymotomatic people before they start infecting others).
> 
> Social distancing and the rise of summer means that traditional colds are dying off; so *everyone* with *any *cold-type symptoms gets tested, you have a good chance of being able to choke this thing off.
> 
> Add in modest social distancing (no indoor choir singing!  Masks for service workers!  Working from home when possible!) and ramp up the economy without megadeath.  Maybe.
> 
> ---
> 
> This is one of the reasons behind "flatten the curve".  It bought time. We know more about how it spreads, we have more PPE, we have hospitals that know how to treat it, we have tests to detect it.  Now we can drop Re *more efficiently* than we could in March.
> 
> And if we keep Re under 1.0 and this thing dies out.
> 
> Now, the number of additional infected during the die out phase is (1/(1-Re)).  So an Re of 0.9 isn't that useful (as we get 10x more infected before it dies out).  An Re of 0.5 means we get 2x more infected, and one of 0.25 means we get 33% more infected.  OTOH, our learning and testing and contact tracing gets better as numbers fall and time passes; so even an Re of 0.9 means it doesn't *get worse* (per day), and if costs are low enough we can sustain that and start applying improved measures.




Unfortunately I live in Peel Region, which currently has one of the highest infection rates. In fact a very close Postal Code was specifically mentioned in the list of Postal Codes that Premier Ford didn't want to release. I expect to be a virtual shut-in for another month, though I will have to start doing 2 days a week at work, in downtown Toronto, starting next week.

If only I could convince my gaming buddies to do virtual games.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Ryujin said:


> If only I could convince my gaming buddies to do virtual games.



I know, same.


----------



## Hussar

In other news, please don't gargle with bleach.  

Now, there's a sentence that I never, ever thought I'd have to utter.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Hussar said:


> In other news, please don't gargle with bleach.



Or inject UV light into yourself. It doesn't have to be said, because how are you even going to do it?


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Or inject UV light into yourself. It doesn't have to be said, because how are you even going to do it?




UV light in Australasia is fairly dangerous.


 Haven't figured out how to inject it.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> UV light in Australasia is fairly dangerous.
> 
> 
> Haven't figured out how to inject it.



We need to find a vaccine for UV light now!


----------



## NotAYakk

Apparently gargling with extremely dilute iodine is a Japanese thing, and won't kill ya.  If you are tempted by bleach.  (reseach the concentration they use, don't eyeball it)


----------



## ad_hoc

I tried playing D&D online with the group but I hated it.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> I tried playing D&D online with the group but I hated it.



Same


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Same




 Didn't even bother online. It's a social thing and not everyone had headsets.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

I haven't tried online gaming recently (eg, not during covid), but I have in the past. It was fine, not as nice as face-to-face obviously, but it worked well enough. My main issue as GM was that it increased my prep time.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

I tried online, but most of my group couldn't, and the few PbP campaign threads I started died.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Or inject UV light into yourself. It doesn't have to be said, because how are you even going to do it?




*WITH LASERS!!!1!*


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> *WITH LASERS!!!1!*



That's it, everyone needs to shove a UV laser pointer (does that exist?) up their butt right now. Maybe it will cure Coronavirus! What do you have to lose?


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> That's it, everyone needs to shove a UV laser pointer (does that exist?) up their butt right now. Maybe it will cure Coronavirus! What do you have to lose?




I was thinking more like using fiber optic cable to do it intravenously, but if you want to go the brute force route, that's fine...


----------



## Umbran

Umbran said:


> I was thinking more like using fiber optic cable to do it intravenously, but if you want to go the brute force route, that's fine...




P.S. This somewhat complicated because I know the benefits of medical lasers for many applications.  My wife has one to treat pain and help wound healing and such.  But it's IR, not UV...


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Yeah, UV light is infamous for causing cancer, sunburns, and just generally being terrible. 

Lasers can be good, for possibly shooting down asteroids, some medical procedures, and science, but it's definitely not recommended to shine UV at yourself on purpose.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

AcererakTriple6 said:


> That's it, everyone needs to shove a UV laser pointer (does that exist?) up their butt right now. Maybe it will cure Coronavirus! What do you have to lose?



Well, there's always these, although the delivery system is... _problematic_:








						Ultraviolet Ammunition
					

Ultraviolet ammunition is a type of bullet used by Lycans to kill Vampires. They are hollow bullets filled with a special irradiated fluid that emits ultraviolet light. The bullets first appear when the Lycan Trix uses them to kill the Vampire Rigel. Selene takes a Desert Eagle loaded with the...




					underworld.fandom.com


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> That's it, everyone needs to shove a UV laser pointer (does that exist?) up their butt right now. Maybe it will cure Coronavirus! What do you have to lose?




You just know that's someone's kink somewhere in the world

  Lockdown was basically a 7 week government funded holiday with lots of beer sampling. Binge watched entire seasons, spent more time with wife.

Kinda miss it.

D&D starting up next week at new gamestore. Might be Star Wars, owner is just renting out tables.

Probably more of a meet and greet next week he wants some one shots and organize DMs. Then campaigns after that.

DMs gonna get store credit.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> government funded



Yeah, too bad we didn't have that in America. (Banks were literally taking the money the government was giving them if they had debts.)


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> We need to find a vaccine for UV light now!



Rumor says the Dark Side of the Moon is safe: 3000 km of solid rock between you and the UV light.

But the piped-in music makes you think you are going crazy.
And stay away from that Monolith - radios and anything else with a speaker attached goes crazy for real when they get too close.


----------



## NotAYakk

You know, bullets are way more effective at killing covid-19 in petri dishes than UV light.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> You know, bullets are way more effective at killing covid-19 in petri dishes than UV light.




 I heard nuking a hurricane might work.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

NotAYakk said:


> You know, bullets are way more effective at killing covid-19 in petri dishes than UV light.



The implications of this is just too far.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> I heard nuking a hurricane might work.



Yeah. Radioactive hurricanes!


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yeah. Radioactive hurricanes!




 USSR thought using nukes for civil engineering was a good idea. 

 They have a radioactive crater lake to show for their efforts. 

 Hmmnn there is an adventure in there somewhere


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Rumor says the Dark Side of the Moon is safe: 3000 km of solid rock between you and the UV light.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sigh loved that show. Bad Umbran. Bad.

 Go hang your head in the corner and say 15 hail Gygax's.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> USSR thought using nukes for civil engineering was a good idea.
> 
> They have a radioactive crater lake to show for their efforts.
> 
> Hmmnn there is an adventure in there somewhere



Project Plowshare in the USA was also being planned.

The figured they could blow a new pass through the rocky mountains, and wait a few decades and it'd be safe to travel.

Air test ban treaty did that in.  Which I think was inspired by finding radioactive isotopes in baby teeth?


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan




----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> Project Plowshare in the USA was also being planned.
> 
> The figured they could blow a new pass through the rocky mountains, and wait a few decades and it'd be safe to travel.
> 
> Air test ban treaty did that in.  Which I think was inspired by finding radioactive isotopes in baby teeth?




 USSR actually did it. 

 There's photos from the 50s of US towns near test zones covered in Fallout.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Pretty much, though some researchers are now suggesting the asymptomatic may be almost non-contagious, and “asymptomatic spread” may in fact be “*pre*symptomatic spread,”
> 
> I’m dubious of this in the light of the US Navy’s issues with the virus, but THEY had the complicating factor of tight, enclosed living/working space meaning even the mildly contagious had a greater chance of infecting others.



...and apparently, someone misspoke.








						WHO walks back statement on 'very rare' asymptomatic spread as infectious disease experts say it is 'not accurate'
					

The World Health Organization is walking back a statement made Monday calling asymptomatic spread of coronavirus "very rare."




					www.yahoo.com
				




At this point, it looks like the good doctor was trying to make a distinction between presymptomatic and asymptomatic, and that the former may be more common than the latter.  But as they clarified, _as a practical matter_, that’s a distinction that doesn’t make a difference to the general public.  IOW, it matters to epidemiologists and virologists researching Covid-19, but not so much to those crafting public health responses to it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Busy day. Organized post Covid D&D and post Covid meal out. Granny came out with us for the first time since February, my nephew who is 6 managed to eat an adult sized burger.





They did a steak special to get punters through the door. They're doing steak, fries and a drink for $10 USD so most people ordered that.

They've had the we might have to close speech from the boss but they were busy tonight. Waitress was amazing so I upped her, tipping is rare here but she went above and beyond.




Chicken Wings NZ style





Chicken poppers with habenero sauce.

And I did dessert as well. Patriotic duty to spend money.






Banana loaf with butterscotch sauce and icecream.

Would suck if they have to close. It's one of our favorites. May have had a few to many beers and I scored a free IPA.

 3 course meal for two with 4 beers and a hot chocolate came to around $65 USD for 2 starters, 2 mains (steak)and 2 desserts.

 Eat, drink, be merry and don't think about things to much. I know nushing Colonel Hogan!!!!


----------



## Ryujin

AcererakTriple6 said:


> That's it, everyone needs to shove a UV laser pointer (does that exist?) up their butt right now. Maybe it will cure Coronavirus! What do you have to lose?




Your colon?


----------



## Janx

Ryujin said:


> Your colon?



Probably not the entire thing, I imagine the light wouldn't get that far.  So maybe you'd be left with a semi-colon.


----------



## Zardnaar

Nothing to exciting but a 2 minute clip of my hometown under lockdown couple of months ago. 


Even McDonalds got closed. I avoided the CBD at this time went to the supermarket once or twice a few weeks later.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> ...my nephew who is 6 managed to eat an adult sized burger.




So that’s what...2-4x his body mass?  Impressive!


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> So that’s what...2-4x his body mass?  Impressive!




 It was like a big quarter pounder and massive plate of steak fries. He didn't finish them.

 That was a "kids" meal. Bit bigger than a happy meal.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Janx said:


> Probably not the entire thing, I imagine the light wouldn't get that far.  So maybe you'd be left with a semi-colon.



Hey, Elvis died of constipation. 








						What killed Elvis? 'Gulp' delves into mysteries that go for the gut
					






					www.nbcnews.com
				



.
The colon's important.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> It was like a big quarter pounder and massive plate of steak fries. He didn't finish them.
> 
> That was a "kids" meal. Bit bigger than a happy meal.



Keep feeding him, and he’s gonna keep growing.  Mark my words!


----------



## ad_hoc

California, Texas, Florida, and Arizona are again the big gainers.

This site, which originally predicted, what was it? 60k deaths? And then revised it to 130k deaths recently, well it was just updated again.

Now they are predicting 170k deaths as of Oct 1st.

The scary thing is that they have the curve going upwards on Oct 1st. They're predicting 375 deaths/day August 1st but then 1000 deaths/day Oct 1st (and rising).









						IHME | COVID-19 Projections
					

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.




					covid19.healthdata.org
				





Brazil is now the country with the most amount of new cases and deaths each day. They have 775 000 confirmed cases and have reported that they have conducted 1.2 million tests. 

It stands to reason that the actual amount of sick people there is much higher than their testing capacity can show.

In Canada new cases and deaths continue to drop. There are now only 32 500 active cases, down from a peak of 35 000.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> California, Texas, Florida, and Arizona are again the big gainers.
> 
> This site, which originally predicted, what was it? 60k deaths? And then revised it to 130k deaths recently, well it was just updated again.
> 
> Now they are predicting 170k deaths as of Oct 1st.
> 
> The scary thing is that they have the curve going upwards on Oct 1st. They're predicting 375 deaths/day August 1st but then 1000 deaths/day Oct 1st (and rising).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> IHME | COVID-19 Projections
> 
> 
> Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> covid19.healthdata.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Brazil is now the country with the most amount of new cases and deaths each day. They have 775 000 confirmed cases and have reported that they have conducted 1.2 million tests.
> 
> It stands to reason that the actual amount of sick people there is much higher than their testing capacity can show.
> 
> In Canada new cases and deaths continue to drop. There are now only 32 500 active cases, down from a peak of 35 000.




 Knew Brazil would be a basket case back in March. Lebanon falling apart, they tried the lockdown but had other problems and couldn't really afford it.

 Boring stuff. Study during Covid.









						Coronavirus: Psychologists reveal New Zealand's political shift during lockdown
					

Research reveals how the lockdown changed New Zealanders' political psyche.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Zardnaar

Church I mean rugby is back on. 18000 fans expected. 









						Live sport to return in Dunedin with Highlanders v Chiefs match
					

The Highlanders vs Chiefs this weekend is expected to attract 18,00 people - it'll be the largest gathering since the country entered lockdown.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Research is suggesting that a relatively few "superspreaders" are responsible for most covid-19 transmissions:









						Most COVID cases don’t spread virus—it’s the superspreaders we need to stop
					

Mounting evidence on superspreaders suggests a shift in thinking about social distancing.




					arstechnica.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

(Sorry, I'm not sure if this counts as political, but I'm not making a statement or anything, just giving information to people who aren't aware of this, as it relates to the pandemic.)

So, Trump is starting up rallies again, with crowds of thousands of people, who won't be required to wear masks, and won't social distance. In order to get into these rallies, they have to sign a waiver saying that it is not the Trump campaign's fault if they get Covid-19.


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> (Sorry, I'm not sure if this counts as political, but I'm not making a statement or anything, just giving information to people who aren't aware of this, as it relates to the pandemic.)
> 
> So, Trump is starting up rallies again, with crowds of thousands of people, who won't be required to wear masks, and won't social distance. In order to get into these rallies, they have to sing a waiver saying that it is not the Trump campaign's fault if they get Covid-19.




At least they're acknowledging what they're doing.


----------



## Istbor

ad_hoc said:


> At least they're acknowledging what they're doing.




Yeah. If they want to take on the risk and go, it is their choice really. Just note if you know anyone going, and stay away until the incubation period has past. 

In the end, this is what people may have to do, especially if COVID-19 turns out to be here to stay. Try and be responsible (el oh el) and when they cannot be, everyone else around them may have to pick up that slack.


----------



## ad_hoc

Ontario, Canada has dropped to 3041 active cases.

Today the guidelines now include forming a 'social circle' of up to 10 people who may come closer than 2 metres from each other including hugging.


----------



## ad_hoc

Istbor said:


> Yeah. If they want to take on the risk and go, it is their choice really. Just note if you know anyone going, and stay away until the incubation period has past.
> 
> In the end, this is what people may have to do, especially if COVID-19 turns out to be here to stay. Try and be responsible (el oh el) and when they cannot be, everyone else around them may have to pick up that slack.




There is nothing responsible about an indoor gathering of that size.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> Ontario, Canada has dropped to 3172 active cases as of yesterday.
> 
> Today the guidelines now include forming a 'social circle' of up to 10 people who may come closer than 2 metres from each other including hugging.




 That's basically our bubble concept. UK is starting that idea I think. 

 We weren't allowed to have gatherings of 10 people until alert level 2.


----------



## ad_hoc

Zardnaar said:


> That's basically our bubble concept. UK is starting that idea I think.
> 
> We weren't allowed to have gatherings of 10 people until alert level 2.




Yeah, this is 'phase 2'.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> Yeah. If they want to take on the risk and go, it is their choice really.




The risk, of course, isn't really to the people who go to the rally, you know.  

Statistically speaking - if you get covid-19, _someone else dies_.  Say you get it - you probalby won't need to go to the hospital, and if you do go to the hospital, you will proably survive.  But, if you get it, with an R0 somewhere over 2, you will probably give it to a few people, and they will give it a few people each... and after a couple steps of that, statistically speaking, someone dying becomes a nigh certainty.

So, statistically speaking, if you get covid-19, you are likely to be the cause of someone's death.  You will probably not know this person, or ever know they got sick, but they will die, regardless.


----------



## Hussar

Not shocking that going to a rally requires signing a waiver.  CYA and all that.


----------



## Ryujin

ad_hoc said:


> Ontario, Canada has dropped to 3172 active cases as of yesterday.
> 
> Today the guidelines now include forming a 'social circle' of up to 10 people who may come closer than 2 metres from each other including hugging.




Except for the Greater Toronto-Hamilton area and Lambton (Sarnia), and Essex (Windsor) counties. So I'm still on lock-down.


----------



## ad_hoc

Ryujin said:


> Except for the Greater Toronto-Hamilton area and Lambton (Sarnia), and Essex (Windsor) counties. So I'm still on lock-down.




The 10 person social circle guideline applies to the entire Province.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Istbor said:


> Yeah. If they want to take on the risk and go, it is their choice really. Just note if you know anyone going, and stay away until the incubation period has past.
> 
> In the end, this is what people may have to do, especially if COVID-19 turns out to be here to stay. Try and be responsible (el oh el) and when they cannot be, everyone else around them may have to pick up that slack.



The problem is, they're probably not going to catch it, and only they take the damage from the disease. These are the people who don't wear masks, or socially distance, or protested against the shutdown. They'll be spreading it to other people. 

I would support this statement if their bad decisions only effected themselves, but they're not, they'll increase Covid-19 across the country. There's more than 30,000 of them. If even one percent of them catches Covid-19 (which more will, most likely), that's 300 more people, spreading it to their families and communities across the country.


----------



## Zardnaar

Local team win. 20000 fans crammed into my cities stadium. 

 First major event post Covid. 









						Gatland kicks Highlanders to win over Chiefs
					

The Highlanders have edged the Chiefs 28-27 in tonight's Super Rugby Aotearoa opener, in front of a raucous 20,000-plus crowd in chilly conditions at Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Zardnaar

And 43000 in Auckland. Guess we'll find out the hard way if we missed some Covid.








						First weekend at level 1 draws crowds to rugby - and emergency rooms
					

The first weekend at alert level 1 drew massive crowds of rugby fans to matches in Auckland and Dunedin - but hospital emergency departments across the country also felt the impact of the return to normality.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Hussar

Starting 3rd week of schools being opened.  Had a couple of cases in the province over the weekend, and something like 30 in Tokyo.  Seems to be under control.


----------



## Zardnaar

Meanwhile elsewhere in the world. 









						Slowing the Coronavirus Is Speeding the Spread of Other Diseases (Published 2020)
					

Many mass immunization efforts worldwide were halted this spring to prevent spread of the virus at crowded inoculation sites. The consequences have been alarming.




					www.nytimes.com
				




Other preventable diseases spreading due to Covid.


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> Other preventable diseases spreading due to Covid.



Back around again to 'making hard choices and addressing competing demands' but this time the options are clearly 'some people die from X' or 'some people die from Z' with no room for 'but your concerns are on an altogether lesser plane than mine'.  Ouch.


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> Back around again to 'making hard choices and addressing competing demands' but this time the options are clearly 'some people die from X' or 'some people die from Z' with no room for 'but your concerns are on an altogether lesser plane than mine'.  Ouch.




Said this long time ago. Bad, worse, awful.

It's often not the pandemic that gets you but when everything else breaks. Happened with Spanish Flu, Black Death, Justinian and Antoine plague.


----------



## Istbor

Umbran said:


> The risk, of course, isn't really to the people who go to the rally, you know.
> 
> Statistically speaking - if you get covid-19, _someone else dies_.  Say you get it - you probalby won't need to go to the hospital, and if you do go to the hospital, you will proably survive.  But, if you get it, with an R0 somewhere over 2, you will probably give it to a few people, and they will give it a few people each... and after a couple steps of that, statistically speaking, someone dying becomes a nigh certainty.
> 
> So, statistically speaking, if you get covid-19, you are likely to be the cause of someone's death.  You will probably not know this person, or ever know they got sick, but they will die, regardless.




I agree. My comment was pretty tongue-in-cheek. 

These people ARE out there though. And they will not be going away or distancing. While personal responsibility seems to be a part of American culture, an increasing amount of people put that onus on the other person being the responsible one. So being aware of that fact and staying away from anyone you know that has been part of a protest, gathering, or rally is a good call right now.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> These people ARE out there though. And they will not be going away or distancing. While personal responsibility seems to be a part of American culture




Eh.  I think personal freedom is part of the culture.  That each and every freedom comes with implicit responsibilities seems to be lost on many.  :/


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Brief report; United States, touristy area, rising numbers.

I drove around Saturday night to get a feel for how things were going. The bars were packed. No social distancing. While the waitstaff and employees wore masks, almost none of the tourists/patrons were wearing masks. Streets were crowded, saw people drunk everywhere, some people out cold from the booze on the street (~9pm).

I am not feeling very good about the future.


----------



## ad_hoc

I saw an interview recently with a doctor who said at this point the virus is there to stay in the US until there is a vaccine. 

He said that it's too late for containment via testing and contact tracing in many areas.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> I saw an interview recently with a doctor who said at this point the virus is there to stay in the US until there is a vaccine.




And I saw a piece in the news today about how folks got the Mayan Calendar thing all wrong, and really _the world is going to end on June 21, 2020_!!!1! It quoted tweets from a scientist.

Except, the twitter account in question doesn't exist.  The scientist, apparently, also doesn't exist.  The given analysis was wrong in two ways, but the whole mess got published anyway.

Which is to say "an interview" from "a doctor" doesn't mean much.  

Is the disease going to be obliterated before we get a vaccine?  Probably not, since we have only ever verifiable eradicated two diseases in recorded history.  We wouldn't expect Covid-19 to miraculously be the third.

Will it be keeping us paralyzed trying to control it?  That's a different question.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> And I saw a piece in the news today about how folks got the Mayan Calendar thing all wrong, and really _the world is going to end on June 21, 2020_!!!1! It quoted tweets from a scientist.
> 
> Except, the twitter account in question doesn't exist.  The scientist, apparently, also doesn't exist.  The given analysis was wrong in two ways, but the whole mess got published anyway.
> 
> Which is to say "an interview" from "a doctor" doesn't mean much.
> 
> Is the disease going to be obliterated before we get a vaccine?  Probably not, since we have only ever verifiable eradicated two diseases in recorded history.  We wouldn't expect Covid-19 to miraculously be the third.
> 
> Will it be keeping us paralyzed trying to control it?  That's a different question.




Yes, because I posted that as an argument.

Your snark is really not necessary and is not productive or interesting.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> Other preventable diseases spreading due to Covid.




Mom is kinda in that state of pandemic paralysis.  She hasn’t left the house since the lockdown started, except for going out the front door to see if she could get into my paternal aunt’s SUV (we were car shopping*).  

So while she has made- and kept- several telemedicine appointments, she’s now facing 2 mandatory appointments- one dental, one with her primary care physician (PCP)- and a few optional ones  that must be done in person.  But she hasn’t actually scheduled the appointments yet due to her fears about Covid-19.  Thing is, she needs these appointments to manage her ongoing health issues.  

The PCP appointment is the most crucial.  Her dental health is excellent, but she has numerous chronic health conditions- plus a couple injuries- that need attention.  But to get to her PCP, she’d have to take an elevator ride in a medical building.  All their precautions aside, that’s exactly the kind of enclosed space the virus likes to lurk.

And right now, she fears The Rona more than Diabeetus & Co.






* she hasn’t even peeked into the garage to look at what we bought.


----------



## ad_hoc

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Mom is kinda in that state of pandemic paralysis.  She hasn’t left the house since the lockdown started, except for going out the front door to see if she could get into my paternal aunt’s SUV (we were car shopping*).
> 
> So while she has made- and kept- several telemedicine appointments, she’s now facing 2 mandatory appointments- one dental, one with her primary care physician (PCP)- and a few optional ones  that must be done in person.  But she hasn’t actually scheduled the appointments yet due to her fears about Covid-19.  Thing is, she needs these appointments to manage her ongoing health issues.
> 
> The PCP appointment is the most crucial.  Her dental health is excellent, but she has numerous chronic health conditions- plus a couple injuries- that need attention.  But to get to her PCP, she’d have to take an elevator ride in a medical building.  All their precautions aside, that’s exactly the kind of enclosed space the virus likes to lurk.
> 
> And right now, she fears The Rona more than Diabeetus & Co.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> * she hasn’t even peeked into the garage to look at what we bought.




At this point it's probably actually better to do the appointments sooner rather than later as cases pick up.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ad_hoc said:


> At this point it's probably actually better to do the appointments sooner rather than later as cases pick up.



Probably for that and many other reasons.  But I’m not forcing her out.  No way.  Wouldn’t want her to stroke out because of fear, y’know?


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Probably for that and many other reasons.  But I’m not forcing her out.  No way.  Wouldn’t want her to stroke out because of fear, y’know?



Maybe take her out for a walk around the block on a nice day?  Get her to want to be outside again (and figure out the elevator later).


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mom isn’t much of a neighborhood stroller.  She’s no recluse, mind you- she’s easily the most gregarious of the family (a real Auntie Mame type)- but the last time she went for a walk was with a dog who died 13 years ago.  She barely knows the neighbors.  Her idea of going out is going to dinner, a museum, or an event, not wandering around.


----------



## Eltab

Ah.  Hmm, she needs to break a budding habit, there is a nice new car in the garage, she goes to places not walkabouts ... Does she like ice cream or other "finger foods"?  Take her (well, take everybody) to the drive-thru at Dairy Queen or some place similar, for dessert.
This works better with kids in the car because they get excited and the adults feel it too.

P.S.  Personally, I want an A&W root beer in the frosty mug at the drive-up served to my car window by a waitress on roller skates.  I may be brave or I may be dumb compared to other folks.  I am certain I am nostalgic.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> Ah.  Hmm, she needs to break a budding habit, there is a nice new car in the garage, she goes to places not walkabouts ... Does she like ice cream or other "finger foods"?  Take her (well, take everybody) to the drive-thru at Dairy Queen or some place similar, for dessert.
> This works better with kids in the car because they get excited and the adults feel it too.
> 
> P.S.  Personally, I want an A&W root beer in the frosty mug at the drive-up served to my car window by a waitress on roller skates.  I may be brave or I may be dumb compared to other folks.  I am certain I am nostalgic.



Before Covid-19, dining out was nearly a daily occurrence for her.  Right now?  Not happening, not even at her faves.

We’re in Texas where the numbers are rising quickly again, and only those of us who legitimately HAVE to leave the house- myself included- have actually dined out.  And that always with an eye as to what precautions were being taken.  She’s not interested.

I’ve asked her more than once if she wanted to come along for the ride when we get takeout, but even then, a quick, flat “No!” Is the response.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Before Covid-19, dining out was nearly a daily occurrence for her.  Right now?  Not happening, not even at her faves.
> 
> We’re in Texas where the numbers are rising quickly again, and only those of us who legitimately HAVE to leave the house- myself included- have actually dined out.  And that always with an eye as to what precautions were being taken.  She’s not interested.
> 
> I’ve asked her more than once if she wanted to come along for the ride when we get takeout, but even then, a quick, flat “No!” Is the response.




 Fair enough everyone deals with stuff differently. 

 I read my news on Reuters/BBC and don't watch broadcast TV. 

Watched some CNN the other night at father in laws and I was cracking up at how American public figures sound. 

 Helps avoid anxiety I suppose. That lasted about 2-3 days back in March. Wasn't worried about getting sick myself but more worried about others.

 One of the Americans was talking up things like riots and that. Turns out he wasn't to far wrong.


----------



## Zardnaar

Good while it lasted. 2 new cases imported from the UK.









						Covid-19: Two new cases in New Zealand, both arrivals from UK
					

There are two new cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand, the Ministry of Health has confirmed.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Caught at the borders. 

 Probably means border controls won't be relaxed except with certain countries like Cook Islands.


----------



## ad_hoc

IHME have updated their predictions again from 169k on Oct 1st to 201k deaths in the US.

Scary stuff.









						IHME | COVID-19 Projections
					

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.




					covid19.healthdata.org


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Don’t know if this is technically a relapse, infection by a new strain, or an indicator that exposure to Covid-19 does not convey strong and lasting immunity, but we have one official case of a woman being hospitalized after catching covid-19 for the second time this year.








						Dallas Woman Battling Coronavirus, Again
					

A Dallas woman tested positive for COVID-19 in February, recovered then tested positive again in June.




					www.nbcdfw.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Yet another stupid statement:


			Trump says that 'if we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases' of the coronavirus
		


Obviously, stopping testing doesn't make Coronavirus go away. I can't believe this needs to be said.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yet another stupid statement:
> 
> 
> Trump says that 'if we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases' of the coronavirus
> 
> 
> 
> Obviously, stopping testing doesn't make Coronavirus go away. I can't believe this needs to be said.




 More than a few countries have iffy numbers due to lack of testing.


----------



## Umbran

In my state, the Governor has advised anyone who has been at protests, rallies, marches or demonstrations recently go to one of the several available locations to get tested on the State's dime.


----------



## Zardnaar

Lighter post.
Petitioning UK to declare war on New Zealand (and promptly surrender)









						UK's latest Covid-19 plan: 'Declare war on NZ, then immediately surrender'
					

A petition calls on the British government to declare war on NZ as a Covid-19 strategy.




					www.nzherald.co.nz


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Lighter post.
> Petitioning UK to declare war on New Zealand (and promptly surrender)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> UK's latest Covid-19 plan: 'Declare war on NZ, then immediately surrender'
> 
> 
> A petition calls on the British government to declare war on NZ as a Covid-19 strategy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nzherald.co.nz



That's a hilarious way to try to save your country's lives.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> That's a hilarious way to try to save your country's lives.




 UK does comedy very well.


----------



## GreyLord

I think overall the number of cases right now in the US appears to be holding steady (though I think it is more to do with summer and heat being something that kills it off quicker).  Come Fall, if people continue doing the same stuff there probably will be a massive explosion of cases.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

GreyLord said:


> I think overall the number of cases right now in the US appears to be holding steady (though I think it is more to do with summer and heat being something that kills it off quicker).  Come Fall, if people continue doing the same stuff there probably will be a massive explosion of cases.



Estimated 200,000 deaths in the US by October.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> I think overall the number of cases right now in the US appears to be holding steady (though I think it is more to do with summer and heat being something that kills it off quicker).  Come Fall, if people continue doing the same stuff there probably will be a massive explosion of cases.




 Heat doesn't kill it quicker. Certain types of UV light does. 

 The amount required though is a bigger problem than Covid however.


----------



## Istbor

'Holding steady' in the US appears to be a bit more of a changing in the hot spots for the pandemic. Arizona is a very hot state, and it is finding more and more cases each day at a growing rate. 

This could be due to it being a place so hot most want to stay inside. Or that heat may not play as big of a role as we hope.

Personally, I just think it took time for the spread to make its way there in a big way. Same with other states facing similar upticks. Not to mention a few of those were least concerned about a slow reopening.


----------



## ad_hoc

This is IHME's projected timeline of US deaths. Look at that huge increase in the curve starting in September. If this ends up being accurate and it continues through October and November things will be very bad.

We might end up seeing something similar to the Spanish Flu where the 2nd wave was much worse than the first. I doubt America is willing or able to go into a 2nd lockdown but we will see.






Active cases in Canada continue to decline. Under 30 000 now. 2585 in Ontario which has entered their 2nd phase of reopening.

I'm worried about Quebec which has most of the rest of the active cases and have already opened schools. My mother lives in a tourist area and has already seen license plates from Quebec too which is worrying to say the least.

I'm hoping the US/Canada border remains closed to non-essential travel until there is a vaccine.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

GreyLord said:


> (though I think it is more to do with summer and heat being something that kills it off quicker)



Heat probably doesn't effect it that much. We don't have evidence of it lessening due to heat. (Definitely don't listen to Trump's Coronavirus advice and speculations. If you were, you'd be dead of bleach injection, skin cancer, and so on. Listen to medical experts.)


----------



## Zardnaar

On the heat thing it seems to be working as usual in Brazil, Iran, India etc.

 Also spread fine in Europes summer.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Brazil



Brazil has a ton of cases with many of the same problems that the USA has had with the pandemic, from not shutting down well enough to beat it, hiding number of cases, and so on.


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Brazil has a ton of cases with many of the same problems that the USA has had with the pandemic, from not shutting down well enough to beat it, hiding number of cases, and so on.




Brazil is the fastest growing. 

I think they are likely to overtake the US at some point.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> Brazil is the fastest growing.
> 
> I think they are likely to overtake the US at some point.



It depends on how they handle it. They have less people, but it could happen.


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> It depends on how they handle it. They have less people, but it could happen.




They currently have 930k confirmed cases and only 1.6 million tests.

That's a huge % of positives. 

Untested positive cases are likely going to be very high as they aren't doing enough testing.


----------



## Ulorian - Agent of Chaos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Don’t know if this is technically a relapse, infection by a new strain, or an indicator that exposure to Covid-19 does not convey strong and lasting immunity, but we have one official case of a woman being hospitalized after catching covid-19 for the second time this year.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dallas Woman Battling Coronavirus, Again
> 
> 
> A Dallas woman tested positive for COVID-19 in February, recovered then tested positive again in June.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcdfw.com



I don't know if I'd call this official. No input from an actual doctor... just a reporter speaking to a woman who says she has caught it a second time. Maybe it's true, and the reporting is just sloppy, but at face value, this isn't official.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Ulorian said:


> I don't know if I'd call this official. No input from an actual doctor... just a reporter speaking to a woman who says she has caught it a second time. Maybe it's true, and the reporting is just sloppy, but at face value, this isn't official.




A single case of reinfection is pretty meaningless. For a start, one of those tests could easily have been a false-positive. Secondly, there are always exceptions to the rule when it comes to illness. Having measles is meant to provide lifelong immunity to that disease, but there are a tiny number of people who get it twice. I know, because I was one of those.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mikeythorn said:


> A single case of reinfection is pretty meaningless. For a start, one of those tests could easily have been a false-positive. Secondly, there are always exceptions to the rule when it comes to illness. Having measles is meant to provide lifelong immunity to that disease, but there are a tiny number of people who get it twice. I know, because I was one of those.



Not likely to be false positives- she was tested the first time because she had the classic symptoms- you almost couldn‘t get tested in Texas in February if you didn’t.   In the second case, she had the same symptoms, triggering the second test.

Could she be more susceptible to COVID-19?  Absolutely.  There’s discussio about links between blood types and severity and other factors, and variations in susceptibility based on genetic, environmental, and other factors is pretty common.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

She could have a weakened immune system, have prior health conditions, never truly recovered and just had it get worse suddenly, or any number of these scenarios. The most frightening option, IMO, is that it mutated enough to become a different strain, but this is unlikely.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> She could have a weakened immune system, have prior health conditions, never truly recovered and just had it get worse suddenly, or any number of these scenarios. The most frightening option, IMO, is that it mutated enough to become a different strain, but this is unlikely.



Given that she’s donated plasma twice since recovering from her February diagnosis, it’s unlikely that she simply had COVID-19 all this time.

So far, COVID-19 has proven to be a slow mutator- something driving researchers to believe that if effective treatments can be found, they will likely be effective for all strains.


----------



## ccs

ad_hoc said:


> They currently have 930k confirmed cases and only 1.6 million tests.
> 
> That's a huge % of positives.
> 
> Untested positive cases are likely going to be very high as they aren't doing enough testing.




Maybe the deforestation rate in the Amazon rainforest will slow.


----------



## Zardnaar

It happened. 3 month break Covid and vaguely related to the OP.






 6 players, another group behind them.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> It happened. 3 month break Covid and vaguely related to the OP.
> 
> 6 players, another group behind them.




I know your country is doing great.  But that image makes me cringe at this point.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Whenever in a movie or tv show now I see 2 people not wearing facemasks shake hands and stand close together, I wince and mentally scream at them to move away from each other. 
This pandemic has traumatized me, I think.


----------



## briggart

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Don’t know if this is technically a relapse, infection by a new strain, or an indicator that exposure to Covid-19 does not convey strong and lasting immunity, but we have one official case of a woman being hospitalized after catching covid-19 for the second time this year.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dallas Woman Battling Coronavirus, Again
> 
> 
> A Dallas woman tested positive for COVID-19 in February, recovered then tested positive again in June.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcdfw.com




A possibly comforting news from South Korea: apparently re-lapse cases have very low probability of passing it on to other people, to the point that SK suspended isolation measures for re-positives.









						KDCA
					

KDCA




					www.cdc.go.kr
				




This is ~1 month old but, as far as I understand, it's the current SK policy.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

briggart said:


> A possibly comforting news from South Korea: apparently re-lapse cases have very low probability of passing it on to other people, to the point that SK suspended isolation measures for re-positives.



In this particular scenario, I was less concerned about the issue of contagion than the hell of going through a second illness with Covid-19, as well as the implications of what the various possible reasons for reinfection could mean for how humanity may have to coexist with this virus going forward, absent the discovery of effective treatments.

If, for instance, genetic factors or (non-Covid) pre-existing conditions made her more vulnerable, we’ll handle things differently than if post-exposure immunity to Covid is weak and short in duration.  In the latter case, you’re talking orders of magnitude more people being at risk for reinfection than the former.


----------



## ad_hoc

Looks like the protests are not causing a surge in cases.

Both being outdoors and wearing masks seems to have been mitigating factors.









						It Doesn’t Look Like the Protests Are Causing a COVID-19 Spike
					

Does that mean other outdoor activities are safe?




					slate.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> Looks like the protests are not causing a surge in cases.
> 
> Both being outdoors and wearing masks seems to have been mitigating factors.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It Doesn’t Look Like the Protests Are Causing a COVID-19 Spike
> 
> 
> Does that mean other outdoor activities are safe?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> slate.com



This is great news.


----------



## Zardnaar

Wiping it out lasted about a week.









						One new case of Covid-19 in NZ as new arrival in quarantine tests positive
					

New Zealand has one new case of Covid-19 after a man in his 60s in quarantine after arriving from Pakistan tested positive.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Imported 2 cases from UK and one from Pakistan. 

 Borders aren't 100% sealed, still only a trickle. 

 Turns out quarantine rules weren't followed either. 

 Social distancing collapsed a few weeks ago including in the quarantine facilities. 

 Couple went awol from them. Another couple had permission on compassionate grounds but they both had Covid. 

 They revoked the compassionate grounds thing. 

 That's all it takes I suppose.


----------



## Zardnaar

And oops. 

 Easy as that to screw it up.









						Covid-19 border botch-up: 'Next few days will be crucial'
					

Powerplay -  Public confidence in New Zealand's border controls has been shattered, writes political editor Jane Patterson




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## ad_hoc




----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Yeah. Coronavirus is definitely not done in the US. This is contrary to what some officials are saying.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> Looks like the protests are not causing a surge in cases.




In Massachusetts, the state offered free testing to anyone who was at demonstrations.  They got 1300 or so takers.  roughly 1% tested positive.  Even counting that into our daily new cases, our seven day rolling average of new cases is still dropping (blue is confirmed, red is "suspected", which they started adding recently):


----------



## ad_hoc

Fired Florida Data Scientist Launches A Coronavirus Dashboard Of Her Own
					

Rebekah Jones says she was fired after refusing to manipulate COVID-19 data. Her new portal is a reflection of how contentious coronavirus data has become amid battles over the states' reopening.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Zardnaar

France found some in late December, Italy has pushed back the date to mid December. 









						Coronavirus was already in Italy by December, waste water study finds
					

Scientists say samples from Milan and Turin showed virus traces long before cases were confirmed.



					www.bbc.com
				




 If you can trace it in sewage water odds are it's been around even longer.

 Brazil is getting hit hard now. On another forum one if the posters from Argentina said things are falling apart in Peru our and two other countries in the region. 

 So early transmission and 3 months later things explode?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Well, it’s a small study that only looks at a part of the human immune response, but this isn’t exactly great news:








						Coronavirus antibodies may disappear 2 to 3 months after people recover, a new study found
					

Asymptomatic people had "weaker" immune responses to COVID-19, and 40% of them had no detectable antibodies after a couple of months.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well, it’s a small study that only looks at a part of the human immune response, but this isn’t exactly great news:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus antibodies may disappear 2 to 3 months after people recover, a new study found
> 
> 
> Asymptomatic people had "weaker" immune responses to COVID-19, and 40% of them had no detectable antibodies after a couple of months.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com




Herd immunity probably won't work. 

 I'm wondering if it can "reactivate" after recovery.

Back up to 5 cases. No community spread.









						Two new cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand
					

A couple who have returned to New Zealand from India and were in isolation have tested positive for Covid-19.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> Herd immunity probably won't work.
> 
> I'm wondering if it can "reactivate" after recovery.
> 
> Back up to 5 cases. No community spread.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Two new cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand
> 
> 
> A couple who have returned to New Zealand from India and were in isolation have tested positive for Covid-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz




Hopefully. Depends on if the correct response is stored in Memory T Cells. If my biology is still correct. 

Could take longer for the body to adapt a strong response, or as you like to point out, (bad. worse, awful) may never develop a long-term way to consistently fight the virus. 

I definitely worry about people I know in Florida though. On a good note, they are in one of the counties that didn't rush reopening.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Istbor said:


> I definitely worry about people I know in Florida though.



You should always worry about florida in a crisis.


----------



## Lem23

AcererakTriple6 said:


> You should always worry about florida.




Fixed that for you.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Apparently, there is evidence that- like the viruses that cause Mumps, enterovirus and SARS- COVID-19 can _cause_ diabetes.









						Coronavirus ‘could trigger diabetes in previously healthy people’, experts warn
					

Several cases have suggested that the coronavirus may trigger diabetes in previously healthy individuals, leading experts have suggested.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Lem23 said:


> Fixed that for you.



Yes, that's better.


----------



## Umbran

Hey, my state is doing well.  Like, lowest transmission rate in the nation - Rt currently at 0.67.









						Instagram Founders' Website: Mass. Has Lowest COVID-19 Transmission Rate In The Country
					

The current Rt for the coronavirus in Massachusetts — a measure of a virus's average transmission rate at a given point in time — is estimated at 0.67, according to the website Rt.live, comfortably below the 1.0 threshold that signifies rapid spread.




					www.wbur.org


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

My state is doing very well at limiting the spread of Covid-19, except for about one county. This is the county that I live in. We currently have 138 deaths.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> Hey, my state is doing well.  Like, lowest transmission rate in the nation - Rt currently at 0.67.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Instagram Founders' Website: Mass. Has Lowest COVID-19 Transmission Rate In The Country
> 
> 
> The current Rt for the coronavirus in Massachusetts — a measure of a virus's average transmission rate at a given point in time — is estimated at 0.67, according to the website Rt.live, comfortably below the 1.0 threshold that signifies rapid spread.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wbur.org




The graph on that page is grim. 17 states above 1.1









						Rt COVID-19
					

Up-to-date values for Rt — the number to watch to measure COVID spread.



					rt.live


----------



## ad_hoc

1 month ago:





2 months ago:


----------



## Zardnaar

Still no community transmission but 2 more cases for 10 active cases.

Alldrom overseas.

Aussie started to open up but looks like they're gonna get community spread.









						Covid-19: 'Significant community transmission' likely in Australia state Victoria's new cases
					

Victoria has recorded 17 further cases of coronavirus as two primary schools close in Melbourne's Covid-19 hotspots.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




Wouldn't be surprised to get more community spread.

Looks like the only way to contain it is drive it down to functionally zero and gave strict border controls. And enforce said border controls.

Military here is involved with Quarantine after Ministry of Health dropped the ball.

 They're using the large hotels. Easier to lockdown specific locations I suppose.









						Hotels struggling to make profit despite government spend up
					

Many of New Zealand's largest hotels are filled to capacity, but are hardly making a profit according to an industry expert.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 I'm at the other end of the country but only takes one.


----------



## Hussar

We're down around 50 cases/day (give or take).  The country has largely opened up, schools are open, most businesses and soon amusement parks are opening too.  They're taking the perspective that this is pretty much like any other virus now.  It's in controllable numbers, so, we can relax a bit.  Mask wearing is still nearly universal and most people seem to be taking personal precautions fairly seriously.


----------



## NotAYakk

The Governments of the world needs to put "war on pandemic" on the same scale as "war on drugs".

And yes, this means treating social-distance refusers like street level drug dealers.  People who organize group meetings, like drug kingpins.

(I'm ok with this going either way actually; either "treat the war on drugs as lightly as they are treating pandemic spreaders" or "treat pandemic spreaders very harshly".  I know it won't happen, because pandemic refusers are oftne from the dominant social group, who get treated with kid gloves, while drugs are usually a business done by marginal social groups.)


----------



## MoonSong

My country has been averaging seven hundred deaths per day for the last few days. There is no sign of this slowing down anytime soon.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz




----------



## Eltab

Fired employees telling "what's really going on" should be checked against a third-party source.  Have you ever gone public to say _nice_ things about your ex-boss?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> Fired employees telling "what's really going on" should be checked against a third-party source.  Have you ever gone public to say _nice_ things about your ex-boss?



Except she’s the one who blew the whistle on Florida fudging numbers and producing misleading infographics & charts while she was still employed. As in, graphs released to the public showing a decline in Covid numbers because _the dates had been rearranged to manufacture that false trend_.   After that, Florida huffed and puffed apologies and produced the real trend graphs, whole she quit BECAUSE they were doing this and other stuff.  She decided she didn’t want to be part of the government gaslighting program.


----------



## NotAYakk

That particular employee was running a much lauded website which, as she was fired, had its data censored.

The official reason she was fired was "insubordination", aka disobeying orders.

She then set up a duplicate website without the censored data, the difference being consistent with what she said she was fired for wanting to publish.

She seems pretty forking credible.

Little things, like listing which counties UNDER FLORIDAS OWN RULES shouldn't reopen.


----------



## ad_hoc

Here's Florida getting ready to open up further.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Except she’s the one who blew the whistle on Florida fudging numbers and producing misleading infographics & charts while she was still employed.




Yes.  But an accusation like that needs more than an instagram post supporting it.


----------



## ad_hoc

Former Florida Data Official Rebekah Jones on State Manipulating COVID-19 Data
					

Florida’s COVID-19 cases continue to surge, making it one of the new hotspots in the country. In testimony to Congress this week, Dr. Anthony Fauci said…




					www.wlrn.org
				




ICU:

"Their change in language and reporting doesn’t affect how many beds are available. And to say someone who is in an intensive care unit and doesn’t require intensive care and could essentially be kicked out of an ICU bed, if someone needed it, that kind of situation only happens if the immediate care beds are full. There would be nowhere to kick that person out to. And it’s a really irresponsible way to look at patient level care,” said Jones on Sundial."

Sounds like they are counting ICU beds as 'empty' if they decide that the person doesn't actually need to be in the bed. Hospitals here don't work like that. If a person doesn't need an ICU bed, they don't get one. If they have one, it is because they need it.

On reporting of cases:

"So over the last week or so, several hundred to potentially over a thousand cases have actually been deleted from the DOH data. So now on the home page of my dashboard, I put a special marker for counties where from one day to the next, they actually lost cases. So I make sure that that information is known. It is, unfortunately, the only means that we have of getting confirmed positive information about residents in Florida. We have to work with that. We have to understand its limitations and its nuances. And I've worked really hard to kind of explain those on the dashboard."

Here is Jones' dashboard:





__





						Experience
					






					experience.arcgis.com
				




According to her there are 117 480 positive cases while the official number is at 109 014.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

I hope that she's not correct, but I think it's not unlikely she is telling the truth.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Local news interviewed her and the Florida DOH.  In response to her accusations of data manipulation, the DOH pointed out she relied on unofficial sources for some of her data.

...and for those who remember past pandemic shenanigans, the DOH is probably referring to her use of death reports directly from the regional coroners, which the DOH stopped using in late April.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

The death rates and case rates are definitely higher than what we know, but whether officials are lying about it is not something we can really know at this point.


----------



## GreyLord

The general consensus from what I've seen is that the lady is truthful and that Florida has been hiding the truth in an effort of it's governor to downplay how serious it's become in Florida.  Basically, it's hardcore republicans/conservatives on trying to hide the numbers to convince people to go outside and party and attract tourism vs. independents, liberals, and everyone else who are concerned about lives and living.  It is infuriating.

I feel those who are pushing to retain and keep everything open or reopen everything are actually working against their own best interest and instead of being able to really have people trust going out (or be more like Europe and have faith it's actually decreased in cases), they've created a great deal of distrust which will enlongate the economic difficulties for many.

That's as much as I'll say on it, because it is a HIGHLY political item in my book.

In brighter news, my Edge of Empire Star Wars campaign is moving along nicely.


----------



## Zardnaar

Played session 2 of new campaign. 2 cases in South Island again via imports. 

 All in quarantine so far but creeping closer. No Covid locally for 2+ months.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> Hospitals here don't work like that. If a person doesn't need an ICU bed, they don't get one. If they have one, it is because they need it.




You seem to be missing how situations change with time.  Imagine a hospital in a highly actve covid area...

Person legitimately needs and goes into the ICU.
Over the next seven days, the other beds in the hospital fill with non-ICU patients.
Person who started in the ICU gets somewhat better.  They no longer need the ICU, but there's _nowhere else to put them_. The hospital is full!
What are you going to do, put them out on the sidewalk?

Yes, we are talking about situations where the hospital works at or above capacity.  No, this is not normal.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> You seem to be missing how situations change with time.  Imagine a hospital in a highly actve covid area...
> 
> Person legitimately needs and goes into the ICU.
> Over the next seven days, the other beds in the hospital fill with non-ICU patients.
> Person who started in the ICU gets somewhat better.  They no longer need the ICU, but there's _nowhere else to put them_. The hospital is full!
> What are you going to do, put them out on the sidewalk?
> 
> Yes, we are talking about situations where the hospital works at or above capacity.  No, this is not normal.




That is not what Jones is arguing though.

Jones is not saying that patients who get better are able to come out of ICU. Jones alleges that they are designating some patients falsely as not actually needing to be in ICU (while not actually keeping track of non-ICU beds either).

I'm not making the argument.

Jones is well aware of basic things like this I'm sure. To imply otherwise is an insult to her.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ad_hoc said:


> Jones is not saying that patients who get better are able to come out of ICU. Jones alleges that they are designating some patients falsely as not actually needing to be in ICU (while not actually keeping track of non-ICU beds either).
> 
> I'm not making the argument.
> 
> Jones is well aware of basic things like this I'm sure.



Yep.

IOW, according to Jones, Florida is manipulating the data so that it shows the state has more available space in its ICUs than it actually does, in order to serve the narrative of the numbers trending properly to continue reopening the state.  _Extremely, _malevolently_ c_ynical, if true.

FWIW, according to our local news, Texas is fast approaching capacity for its ICUs (at least in the major cities) as well.  We have days, maybe a week or two.


----------



## ad_hoc

Trump is ending federal funding for testing. 

They really don't want to have public data about this.

The unfortunate thing is that testing isn't just there for people like me who like to look at numbers. It is essential for informing about outbreaks and conducting contact tracing to stop those outbreaks from spreading.

Though some think that it may be too late for even contact tracing (that is, the amount of contact tracing that is needed is far too great than what could be provided) in some areas as community spread widens.









						Trump—After ‘Slow The Testing Down’ Remark—Will End Federal Funding For Testing Sites
					

Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have repeatedly claimed, falsely, that testing accounts for surges of coronavirus cases.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> Trump is ending federal funding for testing.
> 
> They really don't want to have public data about this.
> 
> The unfortunate thing is that testing isn't just there for people like me who like to look at numbers. It is essential for informing about outbreaks and conducting contact tracing to stop those outbreaks from spreading.
> 
> Though some think that it may be too late for even contact tracing (that is, the amount of contact tracing that is needed is far too great than what could be provided) in some areas as community spread widens.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Trump—After ‘Slow The Testing Down’ Remark—Will End Federal Funding For Testing Sites
> 
> 
> Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have repeatedly claimed, falsely, that testing accounts for surges of coronavirus cases.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forbes.com



I hate this. I don't care how you feel about Trump. This was a stupid, selfish move. It's not political, it's purely human decency.


----------



## NotAYakk

The epidemic in the USA could ve defeated.

First you break the country into cells.  In each cell you maintain social distancing.  And you restrict travel between.

Most importantly, you ban large and indoor gatherings.

Next, in urban areas, do wastewater testing.  When there is an RNA spike ramp up restrictions.

Start testing everyone with a sniffle as well.  Pay the company for 24 hour sick leave for sniffles if the employee gets a C19 test.

Add contact tracing apps.  Ping everyone who was near someone positive.

Measure Re as well as you can, constantly, and work out what measures have the best bang for buck.

Eradicate it in some cells.  They become green zones; lighter restrictions, but thicker restrictions coming from yellow zones.

You'll kill it off in a few months.  Manual contact tracing is just the final phase when you have mostly choked it off.

Of course, any politician who needs mass ralleys to make money will object.


----------



## Nagol

NotAYakk said:


> The epidemic in the USA could ve defeated.
> 
> First you break the country into cells.  In each cell you maintain social distancing.  And you restrict travel between.
> 
> Most importantly, you ban large and indoor gatherings.
> 
> Next, in urban areas, do wastewater testing.  When there is an RNA spike ramp up restrictions.
> 
> Start testing everyone with a sniffle as well.  Pay the company for 24 hour sick leave for sniffles if the employee gets a C19 test.
> 
> Add contact tracing apps.  Ping everyone who was near someone positive.
> 
> Measure Re as well as you can, constantly, and work out what measures have the best bang for buck.
> 
> Eradicate it in some cells.  They become green zones; lighter restrictions, but thicker restrictions coming from yellow zones.
> 
> You'll kill it off in a few months.  Manual contact tracing is just the final phase when you have mostly choked it off.
> 
> Of course, any politician who needs mass ralleys to make money will object.




A decent skeleton of a plan for areas that are in any way self-sufficient.  That's... pretty much nowhere in modern states.  Trying cell isolation whilst still importing food, medicine, and other supplies will fail.  Now, the failures may be sparse enough you can control the additional outbreaks.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

NotAYakk said:


> The epidemic in the USA could ve defeated.



It could've been defeated if only we didn't have such a thriving disinformation business here in America.


----------



## NotAYakk

Nagol said:


> A decent skeleton of a plan for areas that are in any way self-sufficient.  That's... pretty much nowhere in modern states.  Trying cell isolation whilst still importing food, medicine, and other supplies will fail.  Now, the failures may be sparse enough you can control the additional outbreaks.



You don't need to interact face to face to transport food, or most supplirs.

Canada is right next to the USA with ridiculously interrtwined supply chains. Shutting down non-essential travel let Canada drop its infection rate independently from the USA.

Covud 19 mostly transmits from talking and breathing.  Not from "being in the area".

The point of cells is to permit local success to happen, and focus interventions where the problem is worse.  You'll get some transmission, so you'll want to keep Re in a clean cell under 1; introduced cases self extinguish instead of explode, but in yellow/red cells you plummit Re down to 0.5 or lower.


----------



## ad_hoc

NotAYakk said:


> The epidemic in the USA could ve defeated.




I just don't think that is true because of the culture.

This is a crisis where everyone needs to work together.

Hopefully some areas will be okay. Ironically, New York State may actually come out of this in relatively good shape.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> Hopefully some areas will be okay. Ironically, New York State may actually come out of this in relatively good shape.




At this point, most of the northeast could probably be okay if they cooperated on it.  MA is doing fine - at this point, we'll be okay if we control major events coming from outside the state.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

At this point, I'm very pessimistic about the outcome of the pandemic in the US. There are still many, many people in my county that refuse to follow social distancing rules, mask wearing rules, and they still deny the existence of the disease and/or the severity.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

It’s worse than that: there are now forged/faked documents floating around that people are using to fraudulently claim they need to be exempted from wearing masks due to illness or medical conditions.  I’ve been telling my friends & family who work in retail and food service that if they are shown such a document, they need to call the police.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Oh, and there's that weird conspiracy theory that masks somehow activate Coronavirus. Anyone heard that one yet?


----------



## Hussar

Just saw one linking masks to satanic ties. Can anyone ‘splain that one to me?


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

There was also this guy:








						Ohio GOP lawmaker says he won't wear a face mask because God doesn't wear one
					

Republican Ohio State Rep. Nino Vitale, who has been a vociferous critic of Republican Gov. Mike DeWine's stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 pandemic, believes wearing a mask to slow the spread of the disease would violate his "Judeo-Christian Principles."In a lengthy Facebook rant flagged...




					www.rawstory.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Oh, and there's that weird conspiracy theory that masks somehow activate Coronavirus. Anyone heard that one yet?



Yeah.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yeah.



It sounds a bit like the Walking Dead to me.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> Just saw one linking masks to satanic ties. Can anyone ‘splain that one to me?



That’s news to me!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> There was also this guy:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ohio GOP lawmaker says he won't wear a face mask because God doesn't wear one
> 
> 
> Republican Ohio State Rep. Nino Vitale, who has been a vociferous critic of Republican Gov. Mike DeWine's stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 pandemic, believes wearing a mask to slow the spread of the disease would violate his "Judeo-Christian Principles."In a lengthy Facebook rant flagged...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rawstory.com



That’s horrible theology on his part.  God probably doesn’t wear suits & ties either.  The logical conclusion to his concept is going around all a-jolly-dangle like Adam & Eve.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s worse than that: there are now forged/faked documents floating around that people are using to fraudulently claim they need to be exempted from wearing masks due to illness or medical conditions.  I’ve been telling my friends & family who work in retail and food service that if they are shown such a document, they need to call the police.




Ugh.

So, interesting note - those documents refer to the ADA - the Americans with Disabilities Act.  That act does _not_ say you need to be served normally.  It says that, when at all possible, the business needs to make "reasonable accommodations" for you.  "Ma'am, please wait here, we'll have one of our staff shop for you / get your meal to go," is a reasonable accommodation.  And trying to pretend you have a disability to get accommodations, when you are not disabled, constitutes fraud.  In the mask case, depending on the legal status on masks in the area, it may also be considered creating a public health hazard.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

The response in America makes me unbearably sad.

What is funny during good times, is tragic now.


----------



## Zardnaar

Bleah. Happy news

Aged 100+ survived Mussolini and corona.









						Coronavirus in Ethiopia: 'Incredible recovery of man aged over 100'
					

Aba Tilahun, who is 114 according to his family, was discharged after two weeks of treatment.



					www.bbc.com
				




  American lockdown wasn't that strict even in New York.

Not at the 2nd wave yet more like 1.5 perhaps.

Random picture just because. My hometown, Southern Alps visible in distance.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> American lockdown wasn't that strict even in New York.




It is starting to seem like "strict lockdown" isn't necessary to get the issue under control in many places.  Semi-strict, and use of masks, may do the trick - that's what we are seeing in MA.  Our rolling 7-day average of new cases has been decreasing for two months, now, and our Rt is down around 0.67.  We have taken some reopening steps, and they have not led to a spike of new cases.

But you really need people to be wearing the gorram masks.


----------



## ad_hoc

Canada just had its lowest one day case increase since mid-March; 111 with 3 deaths.

Ontario recently entered its phase 2 of reopening and is down to 1918 active cases, an amount that continues to drop rapidly despite an increase in testing (though the testing is still behind most competent areas/countries). That is only 131 cases per million population.

Quebec remains the hotspot with 25 845 active cases.


----------



## Istbor

Looks like Florida and Texas are closing bars down.

Yep. Problem here in the states, I believe is the complex nature of our deeply divisive politics at the moment, and that somehow, it was made a good idea to bring wearing a mask into that whole mess.

A relative literally in an angry and frustrated manner asked me why I was wearing a mask when he saw me.

I told him, "I'm not wearing this for me, I'm wearing it for you."

He's over 65 has a list of health issues already. I just can't understand why something like that would get you so incensed.

As to the rumors. I did hear the one about how if you have COVID-19 wearing the mask just makes you sicker, because you are breathing in those COVID germs. I think that was akin to the 'activates' it. Which is just bizarre. If you have COVID, you have it. Full stop. Breathing in your own germs isn't going to activate it past being just mild or asymptomatic. You are already sick.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Istbor said:


> Looks like Florida and Texas are closing bars down.




Barn door.

Horse.


----------



## cmad1977

Istbor said:


> Looks like Florida and Texas are closing bars down.
> 
> Yep. Problem here in the states, I believe is the complex nature of our deeply divisive politics at the moment, and that somehow, it was made a good idea to bring wearing a mask into that whole mess.
> 
> A relative literally in an angry and frustrated manner asked me why I was wearing a mask when he saw me.
> 
> I told him, "I'm not wearing this for me, I'm wearing it for you."
> 
> He's over 65 has a list of health issues already. I just can't understand why something like that would get you so incensed.
> 
> As to the rumors. I did hear the one about how if you have COVID-19 wearing the mask just makes you sicker, because you are breathing in those COVID germs. I think that was akin to the 'activates' it. Which is just bizarre. If you have COVID, you have it. Full stop. Breathing in your own germs isn't going to activate it past being just mild or asymptomatic. You are already sick.




There are an awful lot of people who don’t understand the very basic functions of their own body.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Ugh.
> 
> So, interesting note - those documents refer to the ADA - the Americans with Disabilities Act.  That act does _not_ say you need to be served normally.  It says that, when at all possible, the business needs to make "reasonable accommodations" for you.  "Ma'am, please wait here, we'll have one of our staff shop for you / get your meal to go," is a reasonable accommodation.  And trying to pretend you have a disability to get accommodations, when you are not disabled, constitutes fraud.  In the mask case, depending on the legal status on masks in the area, it may also be considered creating a public health hazard.



Not just fraud, IMHO, but forgery of a government document.  That could be a real wake-up call for some.

(I just noticed today that some wag has created a similar fake card purportedly from the CDC that claims to trump and invalidate the fake ADA cards.  While cute, I’ll have to say that’s every bit as legally risky as the sham mask cards, so don’t make one.)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

cmad1977 said:


> There are an awful lot of people who don’t understand the very basic functions of their own body.



Mentioned WAAAAAAAAY upthread, America has an incredibly deep well of anti-science/anti-intellectual sentiment, especially in the realms of biology, medicine & health.

(And as @Umbran is no doubt thinking, astronomy.)


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not just fraud, IMHO, but forgery of a government document.  That could be a real wake-up call for some.




Technically,  But this is all about conversations with a person on the street trying to be a nozzle.  It is about someone waving a fake card in your face with a fake threat, and countering with an other fake threat to get them to stand down.  Legalistic posturing.

It isn't like any cop and prosecutor you're likely to find are going to engage these laws concerning whether some lady can get a burrito without a mask.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> (And as @Umbran is no doubt thinking, astronomy.)




Yes.  But the grinding of my teeth notwithstanding, getting astronomy wrong can't usually make you a threat to public health.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Yes.  But the grinding of my teeth notwithstanding, getting astronomy wrong can't usually make you a threat to public health.



Well, until they start launching rockets to prove the earth is flat...as some have done.  One got killed that way, as I recall.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This just in: The Rona is a bad mofo.








						Inside the body, the coronavirus is even more sinister than scientists had realized
					

Cells hijacked by the coronavirus grow long, streaming tentacles to reach out to new victims, scientists found. This could complicate the search for a vaccine.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Technically,  But this is all about conversations with a person on the street trying to be a nozzle.  It is about someone waving a fake card in your face with a fake threat, and countering with an other fake threat to get them to stand down.  Legalistic posturing.
> 
> It isn't like any cop and prosecutor you're likely to find are going to engage these laws concerning whether some lady can get a burrito without a mask.



Police & prosecutorial discretion IS a thing, for good and ill.  But consider the states like California, Florida and Texas (where I am) with their rates exploding.  Officials are getting antsy about facing the consequences of their own actions and inactions as the floodwaters of victims rise.  And those officials who have been critical of reopening are doubtless getting angrier in turn.

If shams like this continue, I would not be surprised_ at all_ to see some city or county official in one of those states start arresting and possibly prosecuting people for this, if for no other reason than to set an example.*  Demonstrating the gravity of the situation to “maux-rawns“ who think they’re being clever, but are in reality just drawing out a slo-mo disaster.

My guess is Texas would be first to do so.  I mean, back in the 1990s, we actually had a few arrests for fake IDs and bars losing liquor licenses over underage drinking.




* Especially since the DOJ has started looking into this.  Some of the cards & flyers are using DOJ seals and whatnot.


			Redirecting…


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

I freaking hate Americans now, and I'm one. We've got a serious "education" problem here (Maybe misinformation is better). The people who have spread the conspiracy theories about masks and the messages saying you don't have to be wearing one should be charged with manslaughter, IMHO.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Police & prosecutorial discretion IS a thing, for good and ill.  But consider the states like California, Florida and Texas (where I am) with their rates exploding.  Officials are getting antsy about facing the consequences of their own actions and inactions as the floodwaters of victims rise.  And those officials who have been critical of reopening are doubtless getting angrier in turn.
> 
> If shams like this continue, I would not be surprised_ at all_ to see some city or county official in one of those states start arresting and possibly prosecuting people for this, if for no other reason than to set an example.




Ah.  You live there, so your judgement on this is surely better than mine.  I had figured that the folks there are too fact-resistant for that to be an effect, and that the "liberty or death!" contingent would have such official's heads on a platter.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well, until they start launching rockets to prove the earth is flat...as some have done.  One got killed that way, as I recall.




Suicide by sheer stupidity usually has a limited blast radius.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> * Especially since the DOJ has started looking into this.  Some of the cards & flyers are using DOJ seals and whatnot.




Oh.  Yeah, that's not gonna fly too well.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Ah.  You live there, so your judgement on this is surely better than mine.  I had figured that the folks there are too fact-resistant for that to be an effect, and that the "liberty or death!" contingent would have such official's heads on a platter.



In America, being a "free country" has been the excuse used by many people who don't want to follow the rules for decades now. 

Living in a free country doesn't mean that you get to do whatever the heck you want, it means that you're allowed to do what you want until your rights take away from another person's rights. This absolutely applies to the current situation. You have a right to not wear a mask, at home. In public, you absolutely should wear a mask, just in case your not wearing one kills someone.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Suicide by sheer stupidity usually has a limited blast radius.



They should get a Darwin Award.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> They should get a Darwin Award.




The guy who killed himself apparently was only about half as stupid as we might think.  He picked up Flat-Earthism as a way to get an audience, he was not a true believer.  

He did still believe he could successfully launch and land a self-built pressurized-steam-driven rocket safely, though, which I (and Darwin) would consider a bit of a flaw.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Ah.  You live there, so your judgement on this is surely better than mine.  I had figured that the folks there are too fact-resistant for that to be an effect, and that the "liberty or death!" contingent would have such official's heads on a platter.



Quite the opposite, because the fact-resistance is flowing from the top down. 

When a Dallas-area salon owner reopened her shop despite a county-wide lockdown order and numerous visits from the police, she was arrested, sentenced to 7 days in jail and fined.

...only to have the Governor order her release coupled with the Lt. Governor* paying her fines & court costs. 








						Texas governor amends lockdown and orders salon owner freed from jail
					

The governor's order names the Dallas hairdresser who was jailed on Tuesday for staying open.



					www.bbc.com
				




So it’s no surprise that, given such examples, there are numerous instances of not only people ignoring the various pandemic rules here, but belligerently antagonizing those of us who DO follow the rules.



* the one who said of the risks of reopening Texas’ economy “there are more important things than living and that’s saving this country”.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Quite the opposite, because the fact-resistance is flowing from the top down.
> 
> When a Dallas-area salon owner reopened her shop despite a county-wide lockdown order and numerous visits from the police, she was arrested, sentenced to 7 days in jail and fined.
> 
> ...only to have the Governor order her released coupled with the Lt. Governor* paying her fines & court costs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Texas governor amends lockdown and orders salon owner freed from jail
> 
> 
> The governor's order names the Dallas hairdresser who was jailed on Tuesday for staying open.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So it’s no surprise that, given such examples, there are numerous instances of not only people ignoring the various pandemic rules here, but belligerently antagonizing those of us who DO follow the rules.
> 
> 
> 
> * the one who said of the risks of reopening Texas’ economy “there are more important things than living and that’s saving this country”.



Great post. I hate this nonsense. 

Lives > Money and Objects. Apparently most of America has forgotten this sometime throughout the years.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I went to a mall just the other day- masked*, of course- to pick up some stuff we had left to be serviced at a couple of stores.  Strictly a hit it and quit it run, no shopping.  (We were prevented from pickup in March due to the lockdown.)

I saw good signs, I saw bad signs.

I have to say that at the least, MOST of the people were wearing masks.  Not by a huge margin, let’s call it a simple majority.  And both groups were demographically diverse.

BUT the mall as a whole was sparsely populated, so it’s not like there were huge herds of people wandering around.  Most stores had some kind of occupancy limits and controlled access.  All the employees I saw seemed to be wearing masks...and most of them, correctly.

Some stores were limiting their operating hours- I saw one jewelry store closing up while the mall was hours from closing for the day.  And some stores are still not reopened, like Godiva and Victoria’s Secret.









*


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Great post. I hate this nonsense.
> 
> Lives > Money and Objects. Apparently most of America has forgotten this sometime throughout the years.




Not really it's been that way since the Great American Tax Dodge I mean War of Independence.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I went to a mall just the other day- masked*, of course- to pick up some stuff we had left to be serviced at a couple of stores.  Strictly a hit it and quit it run, no shopping.  (We were prevented from pickup in March due to the lockdown.)
> 
> I saw good signs, I saw bad signs.
> 
> I have to say that at the least, MOST of the people were wearing masks.  Not by a huge margin, let’s call it a simple majority.  And both groups were demographically diverse.
> 
> BUT the mall as a whole was sparsely populated, so it’s not like there were huge herds of people wandering around.  Most stores had some kind of occupancy limits and controlled access.  All the employees I saw seemed to be wearing masks...and most of them, correctly.
> 
> Some stores were limiting their operating hours- I saw one jewelry store closing up while the mall was hours from closing for the day.  And some stores are still not reopened, like Godiva and Victoria’s Secret.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *




Supermarkets here had one in one out rule. Staff on door and you spaced out waiting in line. We went shopping early morning or late at night and avoided busy days.

Most people didn't wear masks as you couldn't buy them until mid to late April.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Not really it's been that way since the Great American Tax Dodge I mean War of Independence.



It wasn't about avoiding taxes, but about Taxation without Representation. 
This is a bit off topic, but I'm sure something changed after the founding of America that caused this strange way of thinking. (strange is putting it lightly)


----------



## Nebulous

I just have to say I'm very disappointed by how many of my fellow americans reject public mask wearing as a violation of their rights of freedom.  The insanity in this country right now is terrifying


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Supermarkets here had one in one out rule. Staff on door and you spaced out waiting in line. We went shopping early morning or late at night and avoided busy days.
> 
> Most people didn't wear masks as you couldn't buy them until mid to late April.



Many stores around here have done that.  Our hardware stores, for instance, have been doing so for months.  Groceries, not so much- they were focusing more on supplying gel and sanitizing wipes for carts & baskets.

Still, neither have been linked to outbreaks here, so far.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> It wasn't about avoiding taxes, but about Taxation without Representation.
> This is a bit off topic, but I'm sure something changed after the founding of America that caused this strange way of thinking. (strange is putting it lightly)



It shows that, despite what we learned in 1918, some of us are making the same damn stupid decisions.  Thus, we prove the adage about repeating history to be true.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> It wasn't about avoiding taxes, but about Taxation without Representation.
> This is a bit off topic, but I'm sure something changed after the founding of America that caused this strange way of thinking. (strange is putting it lightly)




It's always been very plutocratic. Gilded age in the 1800's, outright corrupt presidents etc back then as well. Original sin of slavery, Civil War, reconstruction. 

It was one of the few Democracies as such though.

Inertia sets in after a while though in any country (see Rome onwards). Countries that were great powers but are weaker than what they were have similar problems (Russia, UK, USA).

Or option B. Our ancestors fail all sorts of modern morality tests. They didn't invent social media though.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Many stores around here have done that.  Our hardware stores, for instance, have been doing so for months.  Groceries, not so much- they were focusing more on supplying gel and sanitizing wipes for carts & baskets.
> 
> Still, neither have been linked to outbreaks here, so far.




 I have my suspicions you can't enforce lockdown for more than a few weeks or a couple of months.

 It was hyper vigilant here but as soon as the went to level 2 social distancing collapsed. 

 They wanted two more weeks of level two but pressure/success lead to reopening early and border controls got very lax. 


 Covid free for a week but reimported it from overseas. It's contained atm but wouldn't be surprised if we get community spread. 

 We're back to early March rates but it's Quarantined atm. Some who were released from quarantine are refusing to be tested though.


----------



## CleverNickName

We were making excellent progress, and were well on our way to having a handle on this thing.

And then spring break happened.  Suddenly everyone just decided the pandemic was over because they were tired of it, and gosh we've been cooped up for so long we just deserve a little break, and I need a haircut or whatever.  And our president and governors wouldn't shut up about how quickly they were going to re-open everything, because clearly a healthy stock market is more important than healthy citizens.  And masks, amirite?  What a drag, they are all itchy and cramp my style...how can I court the court-able members of my preferred sex, when I'm dressed like a medical patient?

Well.

Now all of the spring break destination states: Texas, Florida, California, etc., are seeing massive spikes in cases, the shutdown is going to be even longer and even more financially painful, and our leaders are all wringing their hands saying "gosh, what a strange and random quirk of nature _that nobody could have possibly predicted_."

EDIT:  Sorry for the rant.  I'm furious and scared for my immune-compromised mom, who lives in Texas.


----------



## Istbor

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It shows that, despite what we learned in 1918, some of us are making the same damn stupid decisions.  Thus, we prove the adage about repeating history to be true.




Maybe we should have put up some Flu Pandemic statues. I hear that is how some people learn about history now-a-days. 

Florida is looking to break another record high today it seems.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Didn’t _just_ break it, threw it in the fireplace and yelled “*OPA*, beaches!” broke it.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Just to make a point, I'm not getting a haircut until the lockdown ends in my area and Coronavirus is under control. (that is, if that ever happens)


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Not really it's been that way since the Great American Tax Dodge I mean War of Independence.




Yeah, thanks for the insult.  Very endearing.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Just to make a point, I'm not getting a haircut until the lockdown ends in my area and Coronavirus is under control. (that is, if that ever happens)




I am, honestly, extremely surprised about one thing - hairdressers have rather missed an opportunity.

You can buy portable sinks, for like $120 at Home Depot, and free-standing mirrors.  There's no reason you can't set up outdoors.  With masks, that'd bring the risk way down.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> I am, honestly, extremely surprised about one thing - hairdressers have rather missed an opportunity.
> 
> You can buy portable sinks, for like $120 at Home Depot, and free-standing mirrors.  There's no reason you can't set up outdoors.  With masks, that'd bring the risk way down.




I was pondering this just this morning. Could even drive to see whoever you're cutting. One friend said they were considering it, but the recent spikes here have made even that sound a bad idea.

Luckily my cut is just a 6 all over, so my other-half ordered some trimmers for $50 and took off a few months worth this morning.    She didn't trust me to do anything for her hair in return though


----------



## Hussar

Funnily enough, my wife was the same.  Strange that.


----------



## Eltab

Using Indiana as a model, the rural counties could very well be tested fully (somebody in every household, if not every individual), infected individuals quarantined and the healthy released, using the resources now available - also in effect building cordon lines around the cities / counties with the most cases.  Much like the plan described a few pages back.  One rural county near me had single-digit total cases into May, while the urban counties report hundreds each.
But
Good luck finding a medical expert and/or a responsible politician and/or ranking bureaucrat who will stand in front of cameras / microphones to tell the city-dwellers they get taken care of second.

And another thought: the virus has found its way into the "YOU are not the boss of ME!" subculture(s).  It's going to have to burn through them, because no amount of telling them ... well, anything ... is going to change what they decide they want to do.  I'm ticked that the rest of us are going to have to hear lots of very earnest scolds going on and on about what people ought to do but are not actually doing.
And in the social climate of the last few weeks, good luck with "We're going to call the police if you don't..."


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Just to make a point, I'm not getting a haircut until the lockdown ends in my area and Coronavirus is under control. (that is, if that ever happens)



Your barber may be the best "weight-loss diet" you ever tried, by then.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I am, honestly, extremely surprised about one thing - hairdressers have rather missed an opportunity.
> 
> You can buy portable sinks, for like $120 at Home Depot, and free-standing mirrors.  There's no reason you can't set up outdoors.  With masks, that'd bring the risk way down.



I know a few already doing some of that, as part of their mission/ministry to help out people in hospitals, nursing homes, homeless shelters, and so forth.  But the new sanitizing regs are actually slightly harder to cope with* in a mobile setup.




* assuming they’re reading those regs right, of course.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Just to make a point, I'm not getting a haircut until the lockdown ends in my area and Coronavirus is under control. (that is, if that ever happens)



I’m getting pretty shaggy.  

I have confirmed I’m on the schedule for this Wednesday, but with the numbers in Texas starting to illustrate the boneheadedness of our current reopening plan- and how many people are actually following safety guidelines- the Gov has hit pause and closed certain businesses again.  Because of the risk that barbers may be next, I picked up a set of clippers and guards.

Hopefully, I won’t have to engage in any autotopiary, but I can if need be.

And if it does come down to that, I do plan on capturing one more photo of my pandemic ’fro.  The picture I took a while back stunned one of my cousins (she’s a trainee stylist)- she hadn’t seen that much hair on my head since 1992.


----------



## Zardnaar

Snuck in a haircut first week things reopened . 

 Needed one in March kept fobbing it off.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Yeah, thanks for the insult.  Very endearing.




 Twas but a joke/observation. 

  Hard to campaign on more tax in USA yes?


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Twas but a joke/observation.




Ah, the old, "it was just a joke, have a sense of humor" defense. 

You know that's a trash excuse, right?  Did you actually think that would work?



> Hard to campaign on more tax in USA yes?




Doubling down trying to justify it as true does not make it look like you were joking, dude.

The country's got a lot it could be criticized for, both past and present.   But "jokes" from folks who are not actually in the thick of it are not a valid form of criticism.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Ah, the old, "it was just a joke, have a sense of humor" defense.
> 
> You know that's a trash excuse, right?  Did you actually think that would work?
> 
> 
> 
> Doubling down trying to justify it as true does not make it look like you were joking, dude.
> 
> The country's got a lot it could be criticized for, both past and present.   But "jokes" from folks who are not actually in the thick of it are not a valid form of criticism.




It was meant as a joke. If I wanted to insult America let's face it it's to easy.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Eltab said:


> Your barber may be the best "weight-loss diet" you ever tried, by then.



The cheapest as well.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Sneaky bastard!








						Coronavirus Reportedly Detected in Wastewater Samples From March 2019
					

An unpublished study by Spanish virologists suggests the novel coronavirus has been around much longer than we thought, dating as far back as March 2019.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sneaky bastard!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus Reportedly Detected in Wastewater Samples From March 2019
> 
> 
> An unpublished study by Spanish virologists suggests the novel coronavirus has been around much longer than we thought, dating as far back as March 2019.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



Wow. That's crazy. Did it get more deadly, or did they just not notice a bunch of people coughing up blood?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

In the history of infectious diseases, it isn’t too uncommon to find that a pathogen discovered and named in Year X was actually circulating months, years or even decades before.  AIDS, for instance, is now known to have been infecting humans since at least the 1920s.  But it’s symptoms disguised it’s true identity, so it hid in the numbers for cancer, tuberculosis and other afflictions until it was identified in the 1980s.  It wasn’t ID’d until- among other factors- doctors noticed highly improbable clusters of rare diseases and started looking into causes.

It’s possible that COVID-19 has been hiding among the death statistics of supposed flu victims, certain organ failure and stroke victims...not to mention all those who were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms that could be passed off as a “seasonal crud”.  

Hell, a few years ago, everyone in our household was sick at the same time, but none of us had the same symptoms.  We know what happened to Mom- she had a perfect storm of several different minor infections, some blood sugar, anemia and other issues combine to send her to the hospital.  But my Dad and I?  All we know is, despite certain symptoms, neither of us had the flu.  I’m not saying either of us had Covid, but we don’t know what we had, so it’s possible (but not very probable) we did.


----------



## Zardnaar

Back up to 20 cases.









						Four new cases of Covid-19 in NZ in managed isolation
					

New Zealand has picked up four new cases of Covid-19 at the border, with one victim receiving hospital care in Auckland.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




Catching it at the border. 

But....

 Under extreme stress.









						Covid-19: NZ's managed isolation system not broken, but under 'extreme stress' - review
					

A review of the country's managed isolation and quarantine system has found it to be under "extreme stress" and unable to respond to increasing demands as more NZers return home.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 So far it's working. Wouldn't be surprised if something goes wrong.


----------



## Hussar

And, the thing is, comparatively speaking, covid isn't a terribly lethal disease.  Wait, wait, stop typing, I'm not saying it's GOOD.  But, it's not exactly ebola is it?  The overwhelming majority of people who catch Covid, do recover.  Something like what, about 97, 98%?  And, most of the deaths are among older people, where covid looks like pneumonia.  I mean, not to be glib, but, when an 87 year old patient dies of a lung infection, it's not like they're sending in forensic teams to determine cause of death.

What I'm saying is, that yeah, it's entirely possible this disease has been hanging out in the wings.  It  wasn't until it really hit, in Wuhan, China, that people finally took notice of it.


----------



## ad_hoc

It looks like Americans are going to learn about exponential growth.

Florida:

Thursday: 5004
Friday: 8942
Saturday: 9585
Sunday (Today): 10 682

That is alarmingly fast.


----------



## darjr

So many don’t get that exponential growth thing.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s possible that COVID-19 has been hiding among the death statistics of supposed flu victims, certain organ failure and stroke victims...not to mention all those who were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms that could be passed off as a “seasonal crud”.



But even if it was "hiding" at some low level before, there's been a clear year-on-year death excess in 2020, iirc. So  there must have been _some_ significant change with respect to the virus' lethality or contagiousness or _something_.

Man... this epidemiology stuff is _hard!_


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> And, the thing is, comparatively speaking, covid isn't a terribly lethal disease.  Wait, wait, stop typing, I'm not saying it's GOOD.  But, it's not exactly ebola is it?  The overwhelming majority of people who catch Covid, do recover.  Something like what, about 97, 98%?  And, most of the deaths are among older people, where covid looks like pneumonia.  I mean, not to be glib, but, when an 87 year old patient dies of a lung infection, it's not like they're sending in forensic teams to determine cause of death.
> 
> What I'm saying is, that yeah, it's entirely possible this disease has been hanging out in the wings.  It  wasn't until it really hit, in Wuhan, China, that people finally took notice of it.



Yeah, too many “hoaxers” are focused on the lethality of Covid-19, and that doesn’t seem to be its thing.  It only kios something like 1-5% of those it infects.

Problem is, it looks like it’s a crippler.  It wrecks a sizable number of its victims to the point of needing months to recover...assuming the damage isn’t permanent.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Theo R Cwithin said:


> But even if it was "hiding" at some low level before, there's been a clear year-on-year death excess in 2020, iirc. So  there must have been _some_ significant change with respect to the virus' lethality or contagiousness or _something_.
> 
> Man... this epidemiology stuff is _hard!_



My GUESS is either there was some recent mutation that gave it some extra horsepower or we’d been lucky up until 2019 and it hadn’t hit a big pocket of truly vulnerable people.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> And, the thing is, comparatively speaking, covid isn't a terribly lethal disease.  Wait, wait, stop typing, I'm not saying it's GOOD.  But, it's not exactly ebola is it?




So, you have to be very, very careful about what you think of when you say "lethal disease".

In West Africa, over from 2014 to 2016, there were more than 28,600 cases and 11,325 deaths.  If you caught it, your survival was pretty much a coin flip.

However, in the US alone, from January through June, covid-19 has killed 127,000 . In a quarter of the time, Covid-19 has killed _over ten times as many people, and it is nowhere near burned out yet_.  By the measure of how many killed per unit time, covid-19 has been _FORTY TIMES_ worse than that ebola outbreak.

Ebola is more lethal _per case_, so much so that it is self-limiting.  Covid-19 will kill more people _in your population_ more quickly, precisely because it isn't as lethal in each case.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I think Hussar was thinking of case lethality, as most do.

It’s counterintuitive to think of a pathogen with a survival rate of 95%+ as being “dangerous”. It _isn’t _in the colloquial sense, and that feeds the whole “it’s just the flu” narrative.

I forget who did the research, but one of the reasons why military units around the world are using smaller, less intrinsically lethal rounds than in the early days of firearms is that if you kill a soldier, you remove 1 enemy from the battlefield. But if you WOUND a soldier, you remove him _and all of the soldiers trying to get him to safety._

Covid is like that.  It wounds and maims without killing, thereby allowing it to deal more damage to society than those other diseases we instinctively fear.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Here in Texas, we’re getting more examples of how to/how not to lead in a pandemic.

I attend a Catholic Church with a congregation bigger than most so-called megachurches.  We break up services over 2 days to serve them all, instead of having huge numbers praying together.  And we just officially canceled choir practice and service participation until December at the very least.  This was done because numerous choir practice sessions across the USA have been linked to large outbreaks.  We didn’t want to add to that.

Meanwhile, VP Mike Pence visited Robert Jeffress’ First Baptist Church today.  While Pence was masked- a rarity- FBC’s full 100+ member choir performed standing shoulder to shoulder and maskless.  








						As COVID-19 surges in Texas, Pence attends an indoor megachurch service in Dallas
					

Bars are closed again, but Lone Star State churches have no occupancy limits.




					www.motherjones.com


----------



## CleverNickName

You can't really fault Americans for not understanding things like probability, statistics, and exponents.  We have been actively dismantling our public education system for generations.  :-/


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

CleverNickName said:


> You can't really fault Americans for not understanding things like probability, statistics, and exponents.  We have been actively dismantling our public education system for generations.  :-/



As Walt Kelly said via his character, Pogo, “ We have met the enemy, and he is us.”


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> You can't really fault Americans for not understanding things like probability, statistics, and exponents.  We have been actively dismantling our public education system for generations.  :-/




 It's not just America but even in other countries there's a severe lack of life skills in school. 

 We had a course called transition which did cover things post school employment but it was only for one hour a week. 

 Things like compound interest were covered in math class but who really pays attention to math class and they don't relate it back to the real world. 

 We've had a new schools initiative. I had to deliver equipment to the class room.

 Yeah olde individual desks were gone and they had big tables instead with lots of things like bean bags. Open plan type rooms. Not sure if it's better than ye olde desk plus cane and strap enforcement.



 As long as your parents aren't plonkers you can probably skip the first 5 years of school. 
 It's essentially playtime and babysitting and that was 30 years ago here.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Things like compound interest were covered in math class but who really pays attention to math class and they don't relate it back to the real world.



That’s one thing that needs to be taught in the context of MONEY.

One of the things that was part of my MBA program was a tour of the Dallas Cowboys training facility.  Our tour guide only had 2 bosses- Jones and the head coach.  Man had an MBA himself...and one of his jobs was to walk rookies (and anyone else who needed it) through the day-to-day realities of living as a PRO athlete.  For many, this included tutorials in basic banking, because most of the rookieslived in cash and favors, and had never had a bank account.

As he recounted, in HIS first year in the organization, he got a call from one of the rookies to help him get some money.  It seemed America’s Cash Express would not let him cash his _game check_, and he was broke.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That’s one thing that needs to be taught in the context of MONEY.
> 
> One of the things that was part of my MBA program was a tour of the Dallas Cowboys training facility.  Our tour guide only had 2 bosses- Jones and the head coach.  Man had an MBA himself...and one of his jobs was to walk rookies (and anyone else who needed it) through the day-to-day realities of living as a PRO athlete.  For many, this included tutorials in basic banking, because most of the rookieslived in cash and favors, and had never had a bank account.
> 
> As he recounted, in HIS first year in the organization, he got a call from one of the rookies to help him get some money.  It seemed America’s Cash Express would not let him cash his _game check_, and he was broke.




 Yep some if that needs to be in high school IMHO. 

 In middle school and early high school you got the life skills type classes but in the last 3 years you could pick the subjects. 

 If you were a guy you got cooking and sewing classes. The girls got woodworking and metalwork. That went out the window at highschool.

 They're moving away from pass/fail type grades and more the participation type reports which makes it harder to know how good your kids doing. 

 The elite schools have the kids do international standard type tests. 

 They're doing better these days at some things but worse at the basics.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I took a LOT of classes in public (and private) schools that are nearly extinct in parts of the USA  these days- health, social studies, shop, music, art, electronics, home economics... Hell, my PE classes were more varied than some of the stuff my younger cousins went through.

Fortunately, I’ve seen signs that’s a trendbeing reversed.


----------



## MoonSong

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I took a LOT of classes in public (and private) schools that are nearly extinct in parts of the USA  these days- health, social studies, shop, music, art, electronics, home economics... Hell, my PE classes were more varied than some of the stuff my younger cousins went through.
> 
> Fortunately, I’ve seen signs that’s a trendbeing reversed.



Definitely never saw any of these. In my country, the most we could have would be one workshop during middle school. Stuff like typing, clothes making, baking, electrician or mechanical training. While in many places you can choose, most of the time it ends up being segregated by gender and you don't get a choice at all. The school I went to had six options, but most tended to have just two choices, typing for girls and drawing for boys and there was no way around that. 

I think they have health education and introduction to laws in the highschools under the national University, but I went to one under the national Technical College so just pure sciences and some literature for me -I didn't even have to take PE-. I have no idea how different the other highschools -the many trade highschools and the independent ones- are.  And well, I graduated highschool about 15 or so years ago, so things could have changed a lot.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Covid is like that.  It wounds and maims without killing




I understand the point, but worldwide _half a million people_ are dead.  So, really, this wounds and maims _in addition to_ killing.

Which is why I push back on the, "this isn't lethal like Ebola," narrative.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I understand the point, but worldwide _half a million people_ are dead.  So, really, this woulds and maims _in addition to_ killing.
> 
> Which is why I push back on the, "this isn't lethal like Ebola," narrative.



It isn’t lethal like EBola.  It’s a different kind of lethal.

Ebola is a barbarian- you see it coming- and odds are good you will- you _run_.

Covid-19 is a ninja- most of the time you never see it until it’s too late.

And as we’re seeing, a good number of Covid deaths are freaking preventable with simple public health care measures.

Someone on another board I frequent tried to say that- with its low death rate- Covid was a dud.  I pointed out to him we’re still trying to figure out how many ways it harms people...and how badly.   The respiratory disease has now revealed a half dozen potentially lethal tricks, and that’s not even accounting for the potential long-term stuff we won’t know about for a decade or more.


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> I understand the point, but worldwide _half a million people_ are dead.  So, really, this woulds and maims _in addition to_ killing.
> 
> Which is why I push back on the, "this isn't lethal like Ebola," narrative.




Sorry, yeah, I know what you mean @Umbran, and I agree 100%.  I phrased my post badly.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It isn’t lethal like EBola.  It’s a different kind of lethal.




Um.  Yeah.  I already said that some posts back.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

It's dangerous to say "It's not very deadly", because that's what maskless people have been saying for months. I can't count how many times in my senior year when Covid-19 was in the US, people at my school were yelling "IT'S JUST THE FLU!" or "THE FLU HAS KILLED MORE!" even though they ignore how recent Covid-19 was at the time. 

@Hussar, I agree, Covid is less deadly than Ebola, but is much more dangerous. Covid spreads more easily, can spread asymptomatically/presymptomatically (IDK which is correct), and kills differing parts of the population that people are willing to give up as a sacrifice to the economy.


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> It's dangerous to say "It's not very deadly", because that's what maskless people have been saying for months. I can't count how many times in my senior year when Covid-19 was in the US, people at my school were yelling "IT'S JUST THE FLU!" or "THE FLU HAS KILLED MORE!" even though they ignore how recent Covid-19 was at the time.
> 
> @Hussar, I agree, Covid is less deadly than Ebola, but is much more dangerous. Covid spreads more easily, can spread asymptomatically/presymptomatically (IDK which is correct), and kills differing parts of the population that people are willing to give up as a sacrifice to the economy.




From what I have read it can spread through both asymptomatic and presymptomatic people but the spread from presymptomatic people is much more likely.

It doesn't really matter though as what really counts is that anyone could be spreading it without knowing it of course.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The victim demographics are shifting younger.









						As coronavirus spreads to people under 40, it's making them sicker — and for longer — than once thought
					

Once assumed to be safe from the dangers of COVID-19, younger adults share their prolonged struggles with the disease.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Governments looking at making people pay for quarantine. People have been leaving on Holiday and the government spends about $5500 USD per person. 

 EU has added us to the list of safe countries allowed to enter. 

  They're using the hotels as qurantine facilities. 3 meals a day including steak, lamb all the good stuff. 

 However one wag pointed out that you can fly return to Australia for a day trip and get a two week holiday for free all expenses paid. If you can work from home or just want time off it's cheaper than paying rent and living expenses. 

 Since all Covid is currently imported some people still want to go on holiday now. Then you get a free two weeks at nice hotels. 

 They're only using the big chains as well that tourists used to use. They're not exactly throwing you into Bob and Kates backyard rent by the hour hotel. You're not confined to your room either.

 Kinda good news economy wise.









						Domestic economy coming back quicker than expected, finance minister says
					

Grant Robertson has told an online forum that consumer spending and business activity have rebounded since restrictions were lifted.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Expected 9% unemployment, economy running at 95% pre Covid. 

  Very low side of the doom and gloom forecasts. Early days though but better than expected.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> So, you have to be very, very careful about what you think of when you say "lethal disease".
> 
> In West Africa, over from 2014 to 2016, there were more than 28,600 cases and 11,325 deaths.  If you caught it, your survival was pretty much a coin flip.
> 
> However, in the US alone, from January through June, covid-19 has killed 127,000 . In a quarter of the time, Covid-19 has killed _over ten times as many people, and it is nowhere near burned out yet_.  By the measure of how many killed per unit time, covid-19 has been _FORTY TIMES_ worse than that ebola outbreak.
> 
> Ebola is more lethal _per case_, so much so that it is self-limiting.  Covid-19 will kill more people _in your population_ more quickly, precisely because it isn't as lethal in each case.




There was this video game, pandemic or something.  About making a virus and mutating it to try to wipe out all the humans on  the planet.  

What Umbran says here is exactly spot on with the winning strategy.  A virus that is too lethal, too early burns itself out before it can spread.  You want something with a long incubation, so the carriers can spread it.  Then (in the game) mutate to a more lethal version and wipe everybody out.


----------



## Zardnaar

Covids not really deadly enough so it's easy to be "eh whatever" about it. 

 Not saying it's right or wrong it just is. 

 Even in hard hit areas like Italy you've got something like a 99.7%+ chance of not dying. IDK what the latest toll is but 60 million people live in Italy. In some countries with low death rates crossing the road is more dangerous. 

 Something like WW2 killed around 3.5% of the world's population, in some countries almost 1 in 3. Bit more if an impact.

 It's never scared me as such in terms of getting sick and I'm in high risk group due to asthma and inhalers lower your immune system. I am more worried about the state of the world. Indirectly Covid will kill more than getting sick. 

 It's not the black death. Downsides of a history degree you can always find worst examples. 

 You can't lock down for more than a few months. People either get complacent if it goes well or "screw this whatever" if it doesn't.

 What people should do and what people will do are two different things.


----------



## Bedrockgames

I have been playing online almost exclusively now for several years. For me it is simply more convenient for scheduling, but also helpful because of health issues I have. I will say, the first month or so of online play, it didn't feel like real gaming with people there. But that feeling did go away with time. The only way it can become an issue again is if people allow themselves to become distracted with the internet or something while they play (but I have also seen people distracted with their iPhones during play at a live table so it is a problem in both cases, just easier for people to slip into in an online game because people don't see them checking their emails as easily). I would definitely encourage it. It does have its draw backs. I find if you require a table top map to play, and have to use online tools to replicate that, it will slow things down. I prefer theater of the mind, and for theater of the mind, you can run it just like a regular session. One big advantage is you are not limited by your geography. You can find a group for pretty much any game, in any style of play that suits you. You can also try  out styles you might not have an opportunity to see locally.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Janx said:


> There was this video game, pandemic or something. About making a virus and mutating it to try to wipe out all the humans on the planet.



Plague Inc.
I've played it. It was fun. It will forever be broken for me. 


Janx said:


> What Umbran says here is exactly spot on with the winning strategy. A virus that is too lethal, too early burns itself out before it can spread. You want something with a long incubation, so the carriers can spread it. Then (in the game) mutate to a more lethal version and wipe everybody out.



And people predicted this virus, too. Bill Gates, and other scientists:


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> It's not the black death. Downsides of a history degree you can always find worst examples.



Black Death was a bacteria, and would be fairly easy for us to treat in modern days with our anti-biotics and hygiene.


----------



## Bedrockgames

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Black Death was a bacteria, and would be fairly easy for us to treat in modern days with our anti-biotics and hygiene.




I did podcast on this, may be of interest: THE BLACK DEATH (AND OTHER PLAGUE OUTBREAKS)

I think comparing things like this is difficult. In terms of impact, the black death was definitely worse. Obviously though we are much better at managing bacteria today (perhaps in 1,000 years we will be just as good at managing viruses). But we know so little about this virus. We don't really know what the long term impact is, we don't know if it keeps re-activating like herpes or similar viruses. And we don't know what is down the pike in terms of a more lethal strain. Being a virus it is going to be different from the black death. I think best to err on the side of taking a new pandemic like covid seriously. I've known two people who died from it so far. I don't pretend to know the best policy in terms of what we should be doing as a society, however.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Bedrockgames said:


> I did podcast on this, may be of interest: THE BLACK DEATH (AND OTHER PLAGUE OUTBREAKS)
> 
> I think comparing things like this is difficult. In terms of impact, the black death was definitely worse. Obviously though we are much better at managing bacteria today (perhaps in 1,000 years we will be just as good at managing viruses). But we know so little about this virus. We don't really know what the long term impact is, we don't know if it keeps re-activating like herpes or similar viruses. And we don't know what is down the pike in terms of a more lethal strain. Being a virus it is going to be different from the black death. I think best to err on the side of taking a new pandemic like covid seriously. I've known two people who died from it so far. I don't pretend to know the best policy in terms of what we should be doing as a society, however.



That's my point. They're not really comparable. People say that it's not super deadly, and therefore we shouldn't care that much about it. These aren't similar things. Sure, they're deadly diseases that were given to us by other animals, but the similarities end there. Just because it's not as deadly as Black Death or Ebola doesn't mean that we shouldn't care about it. 

I don't know anyone who has died so far, which is incredibly lucky of me, as my county now has more than 7,000 confirmed cases. I'm sorry that you know people who have died from this.


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> Something like WW2 killed around 3.5% of the world's population, in some countries almost 1 in 3. Bit more if an impact.




I think you are underestimating the possible impact of this virus when all is said and done.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> I think you are underestimating the possible impact of this virus when all is said and done.




70-85 million people died in WWII.  It was 3 to 3.5% of the world population, but the population was much smaller.

Those millions died over the course of 7 years.  If we play conservative, that's ten million a year.  So far, covid-19 has killed half a million in roughly half a year.  So, if you think it is going to be like WWII... well, it would need to be ten times worse than what we have seen to date.


----------



## Istbor

Umbran said:


> 70-85 million people died in WWII.  It was 3 to 3.5% of the world population, but the population was much smaller.
> 
> Those millions died over the course of 7 years.  If we play conservative, that's ten million a year.  So far, covid-19 has killed half a million in roughly half a year.  So, if you think it is going to be like WWII... well, it would need to be ten times worse than what we have seen to date.




I am not trying to account for an annual rack-up of WWII. Only that the potential is there to see a similar total when all is said and done. Maybe that takes 7 years, maybe it takes more. I certainly hope we can provide an effective way to fight it. 

However constantly calling back to past events and saying "It's meh", is not a productive way to address a current crisis, in my opinion.


----------



## Eltab

Bedrockgames said:


> But we know so little about this virus. We don't really know what the long term impact is, we don't know if it keeps re-activating like herpes or similar viruses. And we don't know what is down the pike in terms of a more lethal strain.



One of the things that makes me want to climb the walls is that nobody has collected the already-existing research on small-c coronaviruses and done a TV Special (or similar) on what we DO know about how they behave, spread, the typical course of an infection, what kills the viruses after they get in you, what conditions / environments they do or do not like while awaiting another victim, how quickly / slowly they perish in common circumstances (like "on plastic at room temperature"), medicines and treatment regimens that have been tried, measures to make your body more resistant beforehand and be a tough target, how to boost your immune system if you think you've got it, and so on.

It's like the usual news, health, and government agencies all decided "nobody would be interested in any of that.". (Or "COVID-19 is so new and special that nothing else applies."


----------



## Bedrockgames

Eltab said:


> One of the things that makes me want to climb the walls is that nobody has collected the already-existing research on small-c coronaviruses and done a TV Special (or similar) on what we DO know about how they behave, spread, the typical course of an infection, what kills the viruses after they get in you, what conditions / environments they do or do not like while awaiting another victim, how quickly / slowly they perish in common circumstances (like "on plastic at room temperature"), medicines and treatment regimens that have been tried, measures to make your body more resistant beforehand and be a tough target, how to boost your immune system if you think you've got it, and so on.
> 
> It's like the usual news, health, and government agencies all decided "nobody would be interested in any of that.". (Or "COVID-19 is so new and special that nothing else applies."




This is a topic where I've just been deferring to my doctor for reliable advice. My approach is to do what the doc says and to stay in shape, keep my lungs strong in case I do get sick, and make sure I am getting all the nutrients, sunlight, etc that I need (but not going overboard).


----------



## Zardnaar

Istbor said:


> I am not trying to account for an annual rack-up of WWII. Only that the potential is there to see a similar total when all is said and done. Maybe that takes 7 years, maybe it takes more. I certainly hope we can provide an effective way to fight it.
> 
> However constantly calling back to past events and saying "It's meh", is not a productive way to address a current crisis, in my opinion.




 It's not so much that but humans have an ability to keep going even when there's risk. 

 Social distancing seems to be collapsing around the world even in countries that did well. 

 Basically you can't live in a state if constant fear without the threat being immediate and with terrible consequences. 

 That doesn't really happen that much and the odds of dying need to be higher than 0.01%.

 1% of the American population is 3.2 million. 0.1% is 320 000. Current death toll is 120k iirc probably higher by now.

 Some people are idiots, others are just got to get on with it. 

 Humans live on active volcanoes. 

 Ideally everyone gets 60000 calories and bunkers down for a month. Not really viable in most places.


----------



## tomBitonti

Janx said:


> There was this video game, pandemic or something.  About making a virus and mutating it to try to wipe out all the humans on  the planet.
> 
> What Umbran says here is exactly spot on with the winning strategy.  A virus that is too lethal, too early burns itself out before it can spread.  You want something with a long incubation, so the carriers can spread it.  Then (in the game) mutate to a more lethal version and wipe everybody out.




Plague, Inc, (Ndemic Creations) on IOS, is probably what you are thinking of: You craft a pathogen and mutate it as the game progress to adjust factors such as hardiness, symptoms (which affect transmission rates), and resistances.

There is also Pandemic the board game (published by Z-Man Games) but that is a cooperative game where you travel across the globe to suppress, cure, and eradicate several spreading diseases.

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Humans live on active volcanoes.




Oy, I do that.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Oy, I do that.




 Risk assessment and hope for the best

 Our volcanoes bit to active to live on. One of thems a supervolcano iirc went up 2000 odd years ago.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> It's like the usual news, health, and government agencies all decided "nobody would be interested in any of that.". (Or "COVID-19 is so new and special that nothing else applies."




Well, there's a bunch of coronaviruses out there.  Most of them don't cause dangerous pandemics. Ergo, the behavior of "typical" coronaviruses probably shouldn't be used as a gauge.  Distribute "typical" behavior widely, and you may get people making assumptions that don't hold, and we increase the problem.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Even the UNUSUAL coronaviruses- SARS, MERS, etc.- don’t act like Covid-19.


----------



## ad_hoc

Epidemiologist and professor at the University of Toronto recommends the US/Canada border be closed for another 12 months. 

He also believes that it is 'likely' that the disease will sweep through the US until enough people have been infected to achieve herd immunity. In other words, that it is likely too late for containment measures.

I think if some states can protect themselves from travel like Canada will be trying to do with the essential travel over the border, they might be able to contain it.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

It's going to have to be closed for more than 12 months, probably. America is filled with Anti-Maskers, Anti-Vaxxers, and people who don't care about beating the virus.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Not to mention, the doubts being cast on the possibility of actual Covid-19 herd immunity being achievable.


----------



## Zardnaar

In the news yesterday we're not going with reciprocate. 

 EU will let us visit but we're not letting them in. 

 Rarotonga wants us there, the trans Tasman bubble idea has fallen apart with cases in Australia spiking (they reopened to soon). 

 Freight can still go obviously, social distancing easy in that regard as long as people follow the rules. Gonna have bored boat crews though so expect something to go wrong.


----------



## ad_hoc

AcererakTriple6 said:


> It's going to have to be closed for more than 12 months, probably. America is filled with Anti-Maskers, Anti-Vaxxers, and people who don't care about beating the virus.




Yeah, I think that was just an easy way of saying far into the future.

Right now the border agreement needs to be renewed every 30 days and the government won't comment on their intentions until each date.


----------



## Umbran

I'm going to whine a bit....

Dagnabbit!  Where I am, we did it right.  We kept folks home, we apparently didn't open too early.  Even protests and rallies didn't cause a spike.  We are getting ahead of this thing.  

But now, it is all going to go down the frelling drain because of these ... idiots.  All that effort that worked is going to get thrown away.  Cheeses me off so darn much...


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> I'm going to whine a bit....
> 
> Dagnabbit!  Where I am, we did it right.  We kept folks home, we apparently didn't open too early.  Even protests and rallies didn't cause a spike.  We are getting ahead of this thing.
> 
> But now, it is all going to go down the frelling drain because of these ... idiots.  All that effort that worked is going to get thrown away.  Cheeses me off so darn much...



Hey, nothing wrong with whining when idiots start killing people. 

My town/county *never *did the right thing. We shut down too late, too little, and didn't enforce it enough.


----------



## Zardnaar

They banned funerals here for a bit but you could apply for exemptions. Tangi's are also important to the Maori for cultural reasons. 

 But people did obey the rules. Voluntarily isolation was tried for a few days before lockdown didn't work.









						Govt to look at reinstating compassionate leave for those in Covid-19 isolation
					

The government will next week look at the reinstatement of compassionate leave for those in managed isolation. Watch the latest briefing from Minister Megan Woods and Air Commodore Digby Webb here.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Health minister just resigned today due to the cock ups. He's my local MP. Maybe the Air Marshall can do better job. Think I'll split vote for the Greens and retire him. 80 000 tests last two weeks no community spread.

50 odd people who were missed in the testing also refusing to be testing while others are refusing to be contacted. 

 Border controls working for now, wouldn't be surprised if they get breached.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Possible Covid-19/priapism link:









						Coronavirus patient suffers 4-hour erection from blood clot
					

A coronavirus patient in France suffered a four-hour erection due to a blood clot that may have been triggered by the illness, doctors have warned. The 62-year-old man experienced the painful condi…




					nypost.com
				




How them masks lookin’ NOW?


----------



## Zardnaar

Tabloid?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Tabloid?



Reported in more than one source, including this abstract from the NIH.









						Priapism in a patient with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

Thromboembolic complications related to SARS-CoV-2 have been extensively reported. They include deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, ischemic stroke, and acute coronary syndrome. Penile thrombosis has not been reported as a thrombotic complication ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Reported in more than one source, including this abstract from the NIH.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Priapism in a patient with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
> 
> 
> Thromboembolic complications related to SARS-CoV-2 have been extensively reported. They include deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, ischemic stroke, and acute coronary syndrome. Penile thrombosis has not been reported as a thrombotic complication ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov




 I didn't disbelieve it just not familiar with that paper/source. 

 Usually use Washington Post/CNN or LA Times/New York something or other. For USians.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> I didn't disbelieve it just not familiar with that paper/source.
> 
> Usually use Washington Post/CNN or LA Times/New York something or other. For USians.



Ah, sorry!  Yeah, the NY Post is more to the tabloid side of things.  Not so much “DEVIL BABY BORN WITH HORNS!” as sensationalizing the normal and cherry-picking the somewhat outre.


----------



## Hussar

Wow, this article pegs Japan as 2nd safest for covid in Asia Pacific.  









						The next wave: Japan and Asian neighbors walk COVID 'tightrope'
					

Singapore tops safety ranking despite struggle with dormitory clusters




					asia.nikkei.com


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> Back up to 20 cases.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Four new cases of Covid-19 in NZ in managed isolation
> 
> 
> New Zealand has picked up four new cases of Covid-19 at the border, with one victim receiving hospital care in Auckland.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Catching it at the border.
> 
> But....
> 
> Under extreme stress.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19: NZ's managed isolation system not broken, but under 'extreme stress' - review
> 
> 
> A review of the country's managed isolation and quarantine system has found it to be under "extreme stress" and unable to respond to increasing demands as more NZers return home.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So far it's working. Wouldn't be surprised if something goes wrong.



So this is the kind of thing habitual masks can help with.

If it drops spread by 50%, Rf goes from 2.6 to 1.3.  The virus life cycle stays ~4 days.  Before it doubled every 3 days (lg(2)/lg(2.6)*4).  Afterwards, 11 days (lg(2)/lg(1.3)*4).

That huge gap buys time for contact tracing.

Add in "no choirs" etc and you might even get Rf under 1 *before contact tracing kicks in.



Theo R Cwithin said:


> But even if it was "hiding" at some low level before, there's been a clear year-on-year death excess in 2020, iirc. So  there must have been _some_ significant change with respect to the virus' lethality or contagiousness or _something_.
> 
> Man... this epidemiology stuff is _hard!_



It is possible that a single strain mutated.

But covid-19 as we see it was not circulating much before December.  The virus spreads too fast and kills too many people, and gene change tracking has a single source prior to the huge explosion over the world.

We have *floors* on how lethal it is, because there are areas of the world where 1% of the population died in a period of weeks as the epidemic flooded over them.


Dannyalcatraz said:


> I attend a Catholic Church with a congregation bigger than most so-called megachurches.  We break up services over 2 days to serve them all, instead of having huge numbers praying together.  And we just officially canceled choir practice and service participation until December at the very least.  This was done because numerous choir practice sessions across the USA have been linked to large outbreaks.  We didn’t want to add to that.



Your church should be online.

You *JUST CANCELLED CHOIR*?  OMFG, no wonder your state is screwed.

Choirs are mega-spreading events, and up here they have been gone since March.  We currently have single digit positive tests on about 1000 tests/day, and we aren't even talking about opening up *Choirs*.  Church services are indoor gatherings; current rules permit 10 people in a gathering, ideally outdoors, with social distancing.

*You are killing 100,000s of fellow Texans with your current behavior.*

The goal around here is to eliminate Covid-19 so we can go from condition Orange to Yellow and reach stage-3 of reopening.  (The city is Orange on a Green-Yellow-Orange-Red scale for health care resources, and we are on reopening stage 2.  On this scale, you appear to be on the "naughty word it" reopening stage, and inferno health care status)


> Meanwhile, VP Mike Pence visited Robert Jeffress’ First Baptist Church today.  While Pence was masked- a rarity- FBC’s full 100+ member choir performed standing shoulder to shoulder and maskless.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As COVID-19 surges in Texas, Pence attends an indoor megachurch service in Dallas
> 
> 
> Bars are closed again, but Lone Star State churches have no occupancy limits.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.motherjones.com



Yes, his plan is to kill a few million Americans.  Maybe 1, maybe 2, maybe 3.

His behavior is going to do it slightly faster than yours is, but both of your behaviors are on the road to end up with millions dead.

Surrender is always an option, and your federal and state government is aiming for it.  At best, they are making noises about how they give a naughty word, while not giving a naughty word, because giving a naughty word requires doing something.


Zardnaar said:


> Things like compound interest were covered in math class but who really pays attention to math class and they don't relate it back to the real world.



I want to write up the game that teaches compound interest via a "conquest" or "economic expansion" system.

Ramping up the time scale makes compound interest far more obvious, especially if you are facing AI competition that does use it.



Zardnaar said:


> Even in hard hit areas like Italy you've got something like a 99.7%+ chance of not dying. IDK what the latest toll is but 60 million people live in Italy. In some countries with low death rates crossing the road is more dangerous.



There are cities in Italy where over 1% of the population died during the epidemic.

Most of Italy shut down and managed to contain it, so this didn't happen everywhere.


----------



## Janx

NotAYakk said:


> ..good info...snip...
> 
> *You are killing 100,000s of fellow Texans with your current behavior.*




Easy with the "You" finger. Politics.  Suffice it to say we live in a state where we disagree with what people are doing.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> You *JUST CANCELLED CHOIR*?  OMFG, no wonder your state is screwed.
> 
> Choirs are mega-spreading events...




Um... you are... _preaching to the choir_.

Danny's made it very clear over the 180+ pages of the thread that he's quite aware of the effects of the behavior.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NotAYakk said:


> Your church should be online.
> 
> You *JUST CANCELLED CHOIR*?  OMFG, no wonder your state is screwed.
> 
> Choirs are mega-spreading events, and up here they have been gone since March.  We currently have single digit positive tests on about 1000 tests/day, and we aren't even talking about opening up *Choirs*.  Church services are indoor gatherings; current rules permit 10 people in a gathering, ideally outdoors, with social distancing.
> 
> *You are killing 100,000s of fellow Texans with your current behavior.*




Hold up!

You misunderstood (my admittedly unclear initial post) slightly: precisely *because *we were aware that choirs could be megaspreading events, our church choir had been cancelled- along with all in-person masses and other services- since the initial lockdown order.  The cancellation notice that was just sent out marked a decision to cancel choir essentially until 2021, barring marked improvement in the pandemic situation.

As for services themselves, daily mass (at 25% capacity permitted) started when the Gov said it was allowed, and Sunday services (at 25% capacity permitted) started just this past weekend.  No clue as to HOW they're implementing the capacity rules or social distancing during service because I haven’t attended either- our church initiated online mass within a week of the initiation of lockdown, and continues to offer them.

...as do countless other Catholic Churches around the world.  The diocese of Dallas has recently started broadcasting a Sunday service on a local TV station.  Me?  I’ve been watching one out of Toronto since the 3rd week of the lockdown, having previously watched a local one (from elsewhere in the diocese) and a really nice one out of Australia.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Damn it, Alabama!








						Alabama college students are throwing 'COVID parties' where they invite infected people and gamble on who gets sick first, officials say
					

As of Thursday, Alabama reported more than 38,000 coronavirus cases. State health authorities have warned intensive-care-unit beds might run out.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Last cluster about to be closed.








						Live updates: No new Covid cases today; Final cluster to close
					

Yesterday the Ministry of Health said there were 18 active cases




					www.nzherald.co.nz
				




 18 cases left but all imported. No community spread found, almost 10% of the population tested.

6 more Hollywood productions coming plus Avatar 2. One if them is Lord of the Rings TV show.


----------



## ad_hoc

DaniStone said:


> "They put money in a pot and they try to get COVID. Whoever gets COVID first gets the pot," , just wow.




Zombie movies that don't have hordes of people running towards the zombies because they are convinced it is a hoax are not going to seem realistic anymore.


----------



## ad_hoc

US death toll from COVID 19 is likely to be roughly 25% higher than reported. That would put the current death toll at over 160 000.

Some states are under reporting a lot. The study found that California is likely to be under reporting by 40% while Texas and Arizona are over 50%.









						Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is 'a substantial undercount' of actual tally, Yale study finds
					

The 781,000 total deaths in the United States in the three months through May 30 were nearly 19% higher than what would normally be expected, the study said.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

ad_hoc said:


> Zombie movies that don't have hordes of people running towards the zombies because they are convinced it is a hoax are not going to seem realistic anymore.



However... a COVID-type party might be an fun, _a propos_ twist on an opening scene of a zombie horror flick.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Damn it, Alabama!




Trying to steal Forida Man's thunder.


----------



## GreyLord

Minor gripe...

I am torn about all the churches that want to meet, and the skeptical side of me feels it is more over money than religion...especially churches that are trying to start up in places where the pandemic numbers are rising drastically.  

Why would they do this!?  It makes no sense to me if they actually cared about their members.

Makes the skeptic in me feel it's all about money rather than anything dealing with what they teach in general.

Which is odd, because I am actually HIGHLY religious (Christian).  I'm lucky in that my church hasn't started up in this way, taking a far more cautious outlook, but I hear of churches starting up in areas where the virus is spreading like wildfire and it dampens my enthusiasm, and it may even be affecting my faith a bit in religion.

I'm not sure what I'd do if my church decided it was time to meet.  Probably not go until this is all blown over.  It would be a struggle between my personal faith and what they think should be being done.  I consider myself pretty religious, maybe even hardcore religious at times, so having these feelings about churches starting up is dividing me up.

I would think they should know Churches are one of the primary vectors for the spread of disease, and during the spread of a dangerous disease, they tend to be a hotspot of spreading.  We've seen several events where churches have been the hotspot of the spread of members that attend them. 

It probably is that I just do not understand why this is happening and why churches feel they have to meet.  So much simpler to play RPGs online...which I did tonight.

Can't catch a disease from portal or messenger.  Was only about 2 hours long though.  Pretty focused on the game.  One of the current players is a doctor.  He mentioned before we began about seeing when this will all settle down, but that it may be a while before we can see each other in person or hold sessions in person.  He is probably more religious than I am, but he was pretty critical of people ignoring science.  I'm not sure of what is happening as he didn't go into detail, but as things are heating up in my area (pandemic wise) I think he may be experiencing something or some stuff at the hospital that he isn't really talking to us about.


----------



## ccs

It's OK GreyLord.
It doesn't matter what the churches reasons or motivations are.  God can hear you wherever you're at.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Even if, theologically, going to church via YouTube at 4AM is every bit as valid as attending church services at noon down the road, it just doesn’t feel the same.  

I can say that I personally miss the community and communication from attending church in person.  I miss the music.  Like a grade school kid, there are certain people I only see on church grounds, and I miss them.  I even miss seeing & hearing the kids misbehaving- sometimes, they are riotously funny.

 But like I said, I personally won’t be attending live services until things dramatically improve.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> Minor gripe...
> 
> I am torn about all the churches that want to meet, and the skeptical side of me feels it is more over money than religion...especially churches that are trying to start up in places where the pandemic numbers are rising drastically.
> 
> Why would they do this!?  It makes no sense to me if they actually cared about their members.
> 
> Makes the skeptic in me feel it's all about money rather than anything dealing with what they teach in general.
> 
> Which is odd, because I am actually HIGHLY religious (Christian).  I'm lucky in that my church hasn't started up in this way, taking a far more cautious outlook, but I hear of churches starting up in areas where the virus is spreading like wildfire and it dampens my enthusiasm, and it may even be affecting my faith a bit in religion.
> 
> I'm not sure what I'd do if my church decided it was time to meet.  Probably not go until this is all blown over.  It would be a struggle between my personal faith and what they think should be being done.  I consider myself pretty religious, maybe even hardcore religious at times, so having these feelings about churches starting up is dividing me up.
> 
> I would think they should know Churches are one of the primary vectors for the spread of disease, and during the spread of a dangerous disease, they tend to be a hotspot of spreading.  We've seen several events where churches have been the hotspot of the spread of members that attend them.
> 
> It probably is that I just do not understand why this is happening and why churches feel they have to meet.  So much simpler to play RPGs online...which I did tonight.
> 
> Can't catch a disease from portal or messenger.  Was only about 2 hours long though.  Pretty focused on the game.  One of the current players is a doctor.  He mentioned before we began about seeing when this will all settle down, but that it may be a while before we can see each other in person or hold sessions in person.  He is probably more religious than I am, but he was pretty critical of people ignoring science.  I'm not sure of what is happening as he didn't go into detail, but as things are heating up in my area (pandemic wise) I think he may be experiencing something or some stuff at the hospital that he isn't really talking to us about.




 Politics and religion don't tend to mix well. It's why they're banned here and in polite company you don't tend to be to fanatic about it. 

 Watch The Family on Netflix. Carried to far sometimes things can be to fatalistic (God wills it or heavens better).

 So you've got lots of overlapping







Dannyalcatraz said:


> Even if, theologically, going to church via YouTube at 4AM is every bit as valid as attending church services at noon down the road, it just doesn’t feel the same.
> 
> I can say that I personally miss the community and communication from attending church in person.  I miss the music.  Like a grade school kid, there are certain people I only see on church grounds, and I miss them.  I even miss seeing & hearing the kids misbehaving- sometimes, they are riotously funny.
> 
> But like I said, I personally won’t be attending live services until things dramatically improve.




 It's like D&D. The social element is important IMHO. Community bonding etc.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

GreyLord said:


> Minor gripe...
> 
> I am torn about all the churches that want to meet, and the skeptical side of me feels it is more over money than religion...especially churches that are trying to start up in places where the pandemic numbers are rising drastically.
> 
> Why would they do this!?  It makes no sense to me if they actually cared about their members.
> 
> Makes the skeptic in me feel it's all about money rather than anything dealing with what they teach in general.
> 
> Which is odd, because I am actually HIGHLY religious (Christian).  I'm lucky in that my church hasn't started up in this way, taking a far more cautious outlook, but I hear of churches starting up in areas where the virus is spreading like wildfire and it dampens my enthusiasm, and it may even be affecting my faith a bit in religion.
> 
> I'm not sure what I'd do if my church decided it was time to meet.  Probably not go until this is all blown over.  It would be a struggle between my personal faith and what they think should be being done.  I consider myself pretty religious, maybe even hardcore religious at times, so having these feelings about churches starting up is dividing me up.
> 
> I would think they should know Churches are one of the primary vectors for the spread of disease, and during the spread of a dangerous disease, they tend to be a hotspot of spreading.  We've seen several events where churches have been the hotspot of the spread of members that attend them.
> 
> It probably is that I just do not understand why this is happening and why churches feel they have to meet.  So much simpler to play RPGs online...which I did tonight.
> 
> Can't catch a disease from portal or messenger.  Was only about 2 hours long though.  Pretty focused on the game.  One of the current players is a doctor.  He mentioned before we began about seeing when this will all settle down, but that it may be a while before we can see each other in person or hold sessions in person.  He is probably more religious than I am, but he was pretty critical of people ignoring science.  I'm not sure of what is happening as he didn't go into detail, but as things are heating up in my area (pandemic wise) I think he may be experiencing something or some stuff at the hospital that he isn't really talking to us about.



I'm also religious, and my church closed down before our state/county did. We haven't opened up, but have been doing meetings on Zoom or in the family. 
I think a lot of the people who are both anti-maskers also believe that God will protect them from the virus if they meet up, so a lot of churches have been meeting up. Throughout this pandemic there have been many pastors and other church leaders that have gotten in trouble for not closing down, and so on.


----------



## Zardnaar

Better lucky than good?

 Japan









						Coronavirus: Japan's mysteriously low virus death rate
					

Japan had no lockdown, it has an elderly population - so why haven't more people died from Covid-19?



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Aussie was more or less on top of it. One human error cock up.









						Covid-19: Melbourne public housing towers under lockdown
					

Some 3000 of Melbourne's "most vulnerable" residents will be locked in nine public housing estates for at least five days due to a Covid-19 outbreak.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Better lucky than good?




It is smarter to be lucky than it is lucky to be smart.


----------



## Zardnaar

Police and military used in quarantine. Not every one likes it of course.

"What's going on ere then" !!!









						Coronavirus: Woman who escaped managed isolation in Auckland charged for breach
					

Police have laid charges on the woman who absconded from Pullman Hotel this weekend.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




3 new cases today found in quarantine.


----------



## Eltab

My city government cancelled Fourth of July fireworks last weekend, over fears the crowd would turn into a Corona spreader event.
I don't know about anybody else, but there are so many fireworks going off this evening I would suspect people went out and bought enough to make their own show - each.


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> My city government cancelled Fourth of July fireworks last weekend, over fears the crowd would turn into a Corona spreader event.
> I don't know about anybody else, but there are so many fireworks going off this evening I would suspect people went out and bought enough to make their own show - each.




That probably fine. Each bubble can easily do it in their back yard.


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> 3 new cases today found in quarantine.



That is exactly where you want them to be when found, isn't it?


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> That is exactly where you want them to be when found, isn't it?




 Yes it's working as intended so far. Few hiccups. 

 Having Covid reappear wouldn't be a massive shock though.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Better lucky than good?
> 
> Japan
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: Japan's mysteriously low virus death rate
> 
> 
> Japan had no lockdown, it has an elderly population - so why haven't more people died from Covid-19?
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com




Honestly, I think this point in the article pretty much nails it:



> *The government asked, people listened *




I mean, the Japanese government cannot legally enforce a martial law scenario.  When the US wrote the Japanese constitution, it doesn't allow for the military to take that level of action.  They literally do not have a "riot act" to read.  This was done for all sorts of historical reasons that aren't important now.

But, watching my student's absolute horror at the actions of people in the west- going to beaches, not wearing masks, etc. has been very enlightening.  To my students, it's a moral imperative to help others.  To not do so would be morally wrong.  So, the notion of "it's my choice"  doesn't even enter into it.  

While I've got lots of issues with Japanese culture of obedience, once in a while it does work pretty darn well.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

One of my online buddies is in this category:








						Meet the 'long-haulers': A growing chorus of coronavirus patients have had symptoms for more than 100 days
					

A better understanding of these cases could inform future coronavirus treatments, workplace policies, and public-health guidelines.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Honestly, I think this point in the article pretty much nails it:
> 
> 
> 
> I mean, the Japanese government cannot legally enforce a martial law scenario.  When the US wrote the Japanese constitution, it doesn't allow for the military to take that level of action.  They literally do not have a "riot act" to read.  This was done for all sorts of historical reasons that aren't important now.
> 
> But, watching my student's absolute horror at the actions of people in the west- going to beaches, not wearing masks, etc. has been very enlightening.  To my students, it's a moral imperative to help others.  To not do so would be morally wrong.  So, the notion of "it's my choice"  doesn't even enter into it.
> 
> While I've got lots of issues with Japanese culture of obedience, once in a while it does work pretty darn well.




 Yeah I think that's mostly it. That and Asia are better prepared for this type of thing and more inclined to listen. 

 Partly generational as well. At least here.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The new mutation on the block is more contagious, but (thankfully) not any more lethal.  Still, that virulence could still kick up the number of deaths as it spreads further faster.








						A new strain of coronavirus is more infectious but doesn't make people any sicker than before, according to a global study
					

One of the researchers who worked on the study told CNN that the new mutation is "now the dominant form infecting people."




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Yeah I think that's mostly it. That and Asia are better prepared for this type of thing and more inclined to listen.
> 
> Partly generational as well. At least here.




I suppose that's a good point too.  It's not like this is my first rodeo.  I was in Korea during SARS.  I was here for MERS (although that never really came to Japan).  Never minding things like swine and avian flu outbreaks.  

Heck, it was only a couple of years ago we could get US beef again.  They completely stopped importing after a couple of mad cow scares in the States.  Even Aussie beef was off the market for quite a while.


----------



## Zardnaar

And charges laid for breaking quarantine.









						Covid-19: Police charge woman who left Auckland quarantine hotel
					

A woman who climbed a fence to escape a Covid-19 isolation facility last night has been charged.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Not sure what the Covid-19 Public Health Response Act is. Sounds all nice and official.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Apparently Jails and Prisons are having massive outbreaks in the US: 





						john oliver coronavirus prisons - Bing video
					






					www.bing.com


----------



## ad_hoc

Every time I think Florida can't get worse, there is always something new. 









						Florida teen dies after conspiracy theorist mom takes her to church event and tries to treat her with Trump-approved drug: report
					

A Florida mother allegedly took her high-risk teenage daughter to a youth group event at their church, tried treating the girl at home with unproven drugs when she got sick -- and then hailed her as a patriot after she died.Carsyn Davis died June 23, two days after her 17th birthday, after she...




					www.rawstory.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ad_hoc said:


> Every time I think Florida can't get worse, there is always something new.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Florida teen dies after conspiracy theorist mom takes her to church event and tries to treat her with Trump-approved drug: report
> 
> 
> A Florida mother allegedly took her high-risk teenage daughter to a youth group event at their church, tried treating the girl at home with unproven drugs when she got sick -- and then hailed her as a patriot after she died.Carsyn Davis died June 23, two days after her 17th birthday, after she...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rawstory.com



Florida can always get worse. Always.


----------



## Hussar

That news story seems to be missing a part where the mother and the entire church congregation responsible for the "party" are up on manslaughter charges and, at the very least, reckless endangerment.  Is she not going to jail?


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> That news story seems to be missing a part where the mother and the entire church congregation responsible for the "party" are up on manslaughter charges and, at the very least, reckless endangerment.  Is she not going to jail?





One would hope so.

Melbourne in Australia going into 6 week lockdown.

 Bolsowhatshisface in Brazil showing symptoms. 

 Also bubonic Plague in China/Mongolia. 

 Over it cancel 2020?


----------



## Hussar

Yeah, the plague thing is a bit of newspaper spin.  Plague shows up pretty much every year, in nearly every country in the world.  









						Plague Gives Surprises in the First Decade of the 21st Century in the United States and Worldwide
					

Plague is an ancient disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis and transmitted by rodent flea bites that continues to surprise us with first-ever events. This review documents plague in human cases in the 1st decade of the 21st century and updates ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## GreyLord

Hussar said:


> Honestly, I think this point in the article pretty much nails it:
> 
> 
> 
> I mean, the Japanese government cannot legally enforce a martial law scenario.  When the US wrote the Japanese constitution, it doesn't allow for the military to take that level of action.  They literally do not have a "riot act" to read.  This was done for all sorts of historical reasons that aren't important now.
> 
> But, watching my student's absolute horror at the actions of people in the west- going to beaches, not wearing masks, etc. has been very enlightening.  To my students, it's a moral imperative to help others.  To not do so would be morally wrong.  So, the notion of "it's my choice"  doesn't even enter into it.
> 
> While I've got lots of issues with Japanese culture of obedience, once in a while it does work pretty darn well.




I think you nailed it as well, why they had it better (thus far).  The government asked, people listened is exactly what happened.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Hussar said:


> Yeah, the plague thing is a bit of newspaper spin.  Plague shows up pretty much every year, in nearly every country in the world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Plague Gives Surprises in the First Decade of the 21st Century in the United States and Worldwide
> 
> 
> Plague is an ancient disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis and transmitted by rodent flea bites that continues to surprise us with first-ever events. This review documents plague in human cases in the 1st decade of the 21st century and updates ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov



Not only that, but the Bubonic Plague is a bacteria, and we can fairly easily treat it with antibiotics.


----------



## Retreater

I have no plans to resume gaming in person. I have a job that already puts me in a high risk environment, and I'm not willing to tempt fate when it's not necessary. Likely my groups will never get back to regular face to face gaming. It's sad, but I guess this is the new normal. For me it's no restaurants, no local gaming stores. 
This means games that require face to face play - usually in public with strangers (such as wargames like Warhammer) - are just ones I'll have to completely abandon.


----------



## Istbor

We had one week back to in home gaming, when the South rose again. And also our state started to spike. Bleh. Sucks.


----------



## Retreater

Istbor said:


> We had one week back to in home gaming, when the South rose again. And also our state started to spike. Bleh. Sucks.



My state is one of the few that hasn't had a spike yet (especially in the South). I don't plan to contribute to the likely spike on the way.


----------



## ad_hoc

Ontario except Toronto and a couple other regions entered phase 2 of reopening a month ago. Toronto began phase 2 two weeks ago.

Active cases are still on a gradual decline which is great news. 

There are 1766 active cases down from 3939 a month ago and 2127 two weeks ago.


----------



## Ryujin

ad_hoc said:


> Ontario except Toronto and a couple other regions entered phase 2 of reopening a month ago. Toronto began phase 2 two weeks ago.
> 
> Active cases are still on a gradual decline which is great news.
> 
> There are 1766 active cases down from 3939 a month ago and 2127 two weeks ago.




But now we'll have to wait and see what, if any fallout there is from the "no masks" protest on Toronto transit, today. Selfish idiots.









						People take to Toronto streets and subways to protest mandatory face masks
					

Today is the first day that face coverings are officially mandatory in all indoor public spaces in Toronto, and groups of anti-maskers have inevita...




					www.blogto.com


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Not only that, but the Bubonic Plague is a bacteria, and we can fairly easily treat it with antibiotics.




Until it becomes antibiotic-resistant...

Perhaps more importantly, it is generally spread by fleabites, and we know how to control fleas fairly well.


----------



## ad_hoc

Ryujin said:


> But now we'll have to wait and see what, if any fallout there is from the "no masks" protest on Toronto transit, today. Selfish idiots.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> People take to Toronto streets and subways to protest mandatory face masks
> 
> 
> Today is the first day that face coverings are officially mandatory in all indoor public spaces in Toronto, and groups of anti-maskers have inevita...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.blogto.com




The pictures look like the 'protest' is pretty sparse.


There was also a 'protest' of like 20 people a few months ago at Queen's Park regarding the state of emergency.


----------



## ccs

Retreater said:


> This means games that require face to face play - usually in public with strangers (such as wargames like Warhammer) - are just ones I'll have to completely abandon.




For wargaming have you heard of Tabletop Simulator?


----------



## Ryujin

ad_hoc said:


> The pictures look like the 'protest' is pretty sparse.
> 
> 
> There was also a 'protest' of like 20 people a few months ago at Queen's Park regarding the state of emergency.




Certainly seems like it fizzled, compared to the crowd that the organizers seemed to be expecting. The female organizer, in this video, is Letitia Montana. She's the Looney Tune who walked into St. Joe's Hospital, on July 4th, and refused to wear a mask. You might have seen her video of being refused service for it, since it's all over social media (with her being lambasted for being an idiot).









						Woman roasted on social media after refusing to wear mask in Toronto hospital
					

A Toronto woman who refused to wear a mask while seeking treatment at a hospital and was forced out filmed and posted the incident on social media, drawing condemnation from local officials, celebrities and thousands of others.



					toronto.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Hussar

Who goes to emergency without a mask anyway?  I've been in Japan too long.  I forgot that people actually go to the hospital and don't wear masks.  It's just standard policy here.  Mostly because hospitals are full of sick people.  The thinking here is, "Of course you wear a mask to a hospital.  Duh."


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> Who goes to emergency without a mask anyway?  I've been in Japan too long.  I forgot that people actually go to the hospital and don't wear masks.  It's just standard policy here.  Mostly because hospitals are full of sick people.  The thinking here is, "Of course you wear a mask to a hospital.  Duh."




Just listening to an interview with her, that was recorded by a local talk radio guy. (For people who know Toronto radio, it's Jim Richards of NewsTalk 1010). She's a full-on conspiracy nut. Typical "impedes my breathing" garbage and suchlike.









						July 7 - Anti-Mask Protest - NEWSTALK1010
					

Why exactly do people think it's wearing a mask is an infringement on their rights? GUEST - Letitia Montana, anti mask activist




					omny.fm


----------



## Deset Gled

Ryujin said:


> Just listening to an interview with her, that was recorded by a local talk radio guy. (For people who know Toronto radio, it's Jim Richards of NewsTalk 1010). She's a full-on conspiracy nut. Typical "impedes my breathing" garbage and suchlike.




On a personal level, the people who claim masks "impede breathing" or try to claim a similar reason for not wearing one upset me so much more. Someone who refuses to wear a mask as a form of personal expression or other "freedom" reasons may be criminally stupid, but they at least have principles. Lying about some completely fabricated medical nonsense to try and justify it is just so dishonest that I have to believe the people who say it are morally corrupt to a dangerous level.


----------



## Retreater

ccs said:


> For wargaming have you heard of Tabletop Simulator?



I've heard of this, and was just gifted a copy as an early birthday present. But I haven't tried it yet. My computer is set up in the living room (the primary entertainment hub of the household), so I get very little time on the PC.


----------



## Ryujin

Deset Gled said:


> On a personal level, the people who claim masks "impede breathing" or try to claim a similar reason for not wearing one upset me so much more. Someone who refuses to wear a mask as a form of personal expression or other "freedom" reasons may be criminally stupid, but they at least have principles. Lying about some completely fabricated medical nonsense to try and justify it is just so dishonest that I have to believe the people who say it are morally corrupt to a dangerous level.




I've seen at least two people, one a medical doctor and another someone suffering from severe COPD, hook up blood oxygen sensors and throw a mask on, to prove that they have absolutely zero effect upon it. I wish that I could find the one from the person with COPD again because she started with a standard non-medical cloth mask, went to a N95, then up the scale until she had a full dual-filter heavy duty mask on and the monitor didn't drop below a reading of 90 (which is apparently low, but her norm).


----------



## cmad1977

Ryujin said:


> I've seen at least two people, one a medical doctor and another someone suffering from severe COPD, hook up blood oxygen sensors and throw a mask on, to prove that they have absolutely zero effect upon it. I wish that I could find the one from the person with COPD again because she started with a standard non-medical cloth mask, went to a N95, then up the scale until she had a full dual-filter heavy duty mask on and the monitor didn't drop below a reading of 90 (which is apparently low, but her norm).




If only logic, reason and evidence mattered as much as my opinion. 
“Science” is a liberal conspiracy.


----------



## Umbran

cmad1977 said:


> If only logic, reason and evidence mattered as much as my opinion.
> “Science” is a liberal conspiracy.




Right now, that was not anywhere near as funny as you may have wanted it to be...


----------



## cmad1977

Umbran said:


> Right now, that was not anywhere near as funny as you may have wanted it to be...




I’m not laughing. I’m crying.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Until it becomes antibiotic-resistant...
> 
> Perhaps more importantly, it is generally spread by fleabites, and we know how to control fleas fairly well.



Yeah. Super-bugs are scary, but we can "fix" those fairly "easily" as well.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

cmad1977 said:


> I’m not laughing. I’m crying.



It sucks that science doesn't mean anything in the pandemic to a lot of people.


----------



## Cadence

The governor in South Carolina wouldn't put a mask requirement in place, but did encourage cities and businesses to.  I'm in one of the most conservative counties in the state and all four of our cities over 10k people put them in this past week (three just today), and the entire - much more liberal - county across the river put one in last week.  I was pleasantly surprised that the notification on our neighborhood FB group got a lot more happy faces than frowns.

I wonder how much of it was the Governor ending his last talk by threatening to do in all high school and college sports in the state if it didn't start getting a lot better.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yeah. Super-bugs are scary, but we can "fix" those fairly "easily" as well.



How do you figure?


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> How do you figure?



Antibiotics at least have an effect on them. Viruses aren't affected by antibiotics, so maybe I should have said "more easily". 
Also, superbugs normally can be avoided if you take your full prescription of anti-biotics, as well. Superbugs are made by us, so if we limit the way we make them, we can deal with the problem. 
Also, superbugs can be very deadly, but viruses are normally more contagious than bacteria.


----------



## Zardnaar

D&D night tonight at gamestore. Getting through "There is No Honor" Savage Tide Or 1.

Another idiot breaking quarantine. Charges laid.









						One new case of Covid-19 in NZ in isolation visited Auckland supermarket
					

The Health Minister says the country's latest case of Covid-19 will be charged for visiting an Auckland supermarket last night. Watch the latest update here.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




There's an Air Commodore in charge and the have police and members of the armed forces helping monitor the hotels.

 7 weeks of lockdown and these returning idiot caught the stupid bug overseas.


----------



## cmad1977

Umbran said:


> Right now, that was not anywhere near as funny as you may have wanted it to be...




I’m not laughing. I’m crying.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Antibiotics at least have an effect on them. Viruses aren't affected by antibiotics, so maybe I should have said "more easily".
> Also, superbugs normally can be avoided if you take your full prescription of anti-biotics, as well. Superbugs are made by us, so if we limit the way we make them, we can deal with the problem.
> Also, superbugs can be very deadly, but viruses are normally more contagious than bacteria.



Depends on the superbug.  Some of the nastier ones are virtually immune to most of the antibiotics we have, at least, singly.  That’s when they hit you with a “coctail” of antibiotics.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Crap.








						Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage
					

Scientists warned on Wednesday of a potential wave of coronavirus-related brain damage as new evidence suggested COVID-19 can lead to severe neurological complications, including inflammation, psychosis and delirium.




					www.reuters.com
				




This is the first study I’ve seen that supported the virologist’s fears about COVID-19 related brain damage beyond loss of smell & taste.  It’s VERY preliminary, but not comforting.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Also, superbugs normally can be avoided if you take your full prescription of anti-biotics, as well. Superbugs are made by us, so if we limit the way we make them, we can deal with the problem.




That's a huge "if" though.

And multiply resistant staph infections kill 10,000+ people a year in the US.  Overall, drug resistant bacteria are responsible for 35,000 deaths in the US each year.









						The biggest antibiotic-resistant threats in the U.S.
					

Information and data on antibiotic resistance. Download images and graphics, find burden numbers, and learn more about these top threats.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

“Antibiotics: the only class of pharmaceuticals that become less effective the more we use them.”
~ my dermatologist


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Florida, maaaaaan.









						Florida sheriff wins battle with DeSantis administration over coronavirus data
					

Just two days after a Florida sheriff announced the state had abruptly cut him off from data about local coronavirus cases, state health authorities have reversed course.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Istbor

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Florida, maaaaaan.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Florida sheriff wins battle with DeSantis administration over coronavirus data
> 
> 
> Just two days after a Florida sheriff announced the state had abruptly cut him off from data about local coronavirus cases, state health authorities have reversed course.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




Sometimes Florida man does good.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Idahonoooooooo!


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

This pandemic thing is never going to end in the US, is it?


----------



## Cadence

Running a rare errand today and this was a listen on the world service that had a few things I googled for more later: 








						The Inquiry - Why are Covid cases rising in the US? - BBC Sounds
					

Why are Covid cases dramatically increasing in some U.S. states where rates had been low?




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Theo R Cwithin said:


> This pandemic thing is never going to end in the US, is it?



No. It's not, unless Covid-19 just decides to go away, or we crack down much harder on it (we're not anytime soon with people wanting to open up schools, etc).


----------



## Zardnaar

Theo R Cwithin said:


> This pandemic thing is never going to end in the US, is it?




 Not without a full lockdown and closing the borders. Or wait a year or two.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Theo R Cwithin said:


> This pandemic thing is never going to end in the US, is it?



It’s going to last like _Phantom of the Opera _on Broadway. 

“Held Over Two More Months!!!  Catch It While You Can!”


----------



## ccs

Theo R Cwithin said:


> This pandemic thing is never going to end in the US, is it?




Sure it will.  Once it's killed off enough stupid people and, unfortunately, a fair # not-stupid people.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ccs said:


> Sure it will.  Once it's killed off enough stupid people and, unfortunately, a fair # not-stupid people.



Unfortunately, many of the stupid people are less likely to die of the virus.


----------



## Zardnaar

Puff piece.









						How did New Zealand become Covid-19 free?
					

What has been the strategy behind New Zealand's Covid-19 success?



					www.bbc.com
				




  Generally getting 2 cases a day now from returnees.

0.1% failure to comply in Quarantine. 









						Covid-19 isolation escapes: 'These are not prisons, these are hotels' - Health Minister
					

The Health Minister says there are two new cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand, and has defended the managed isolation system, saying the third escape this week did not represent a failure of the system.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Istbor

I like how in that Idaho clip. That sign was like... I'm not anti-mask, just anti-mandated. Though they weren't wearing them when they were just a suggestion either. So...


----------



## NotAYakk

Istbor said:


> I like how in that Idaho clip. That sign was like... I'm not anti-mask, just anti-mandated. Though they weren't wearing them when they were just a suggestion either. So...



"I'm not pro-slavery.  I'm just pro-states rights, like the right for states to make slaves legal, which my ancestors rebelled, fought and died for, whom I am proud of."

It is a long tradition.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Theo R Cwithin said:


> This pandemic thing is never going to end in the US, is it?




Everything ends. 

I think what makes me so sad and unhappy is that some of us sacrificed for nothing. I did all the right things. 

...and now it's roaring back, worse than before.


----------



## Mallus

At this point, I feel like the hospital systems in places like Houston and Miami/Dade could utterly collapse and a significant number of people 20 miles outside of the respective metros would still be calling the severity of the pandemic a media hoax.

Apparently the soaring number of cases isn't enough. Maybe the body count hitting 200K will do the trick?

Things in Philadelphia are about the same as they've been. Social distancing & mask usage is good in our NW Philly neighborhood. Not so good in Old City, where I got my first haircut since, hmmm, February? The salon took my temperature, had me sign a form, followed best practices, etc.

Of course, this was 2 blocks away from the scene where a White bar owner pulled a gun on a Black cyclist who was exhorting outdoor diners/drinkers to socially distance and wear masks (which they weren't), and 2 young White anti-Karens shielded the cyclist with their bodies. This made the national news, right?

On the plus side, it's D&D night! Well, Labyrinth Lord least. I'm going to make a big pot of Inauthentic Liberal Chili and a couple of Boulevardiers (the PA state liquor stores are open & delivering again).


----------



## Cadence

Finally taking a big step, SC governor McMaster announces that to fight COVID-19, bars and restaurants are finally being forced to close...  oh wait, it's to stop serving alcohol after 11:00pm each day.    :-/


----------



## Istbor

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Everything ends.
> 
> I think what makes me so sad and unhappy is that some of us sacrificed for nothing. I did all the right things.
> 
> ...and now it's roaring back, worse than before.




I agree and share the sentiment. Had we all sacrificed a little, at the same time, we may not still be in the thick of this.

One of my friends might try their hand at DMing over the Internet coming up. They suggested the Lost Mines of Phandelver so that is something to look forward to.

Also, my Zealot Barbarian in another Roll20 campaign continues to just wreck face. That Zealous strike is _mean_!


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Cadence said:


> Finally taking a big step, SC governor McMaster announces that to fight COVID-19, bars and restaurants are finally being forced to close...  oh wait, it's to stop serving alcohol after 11:00pm each day.    :-/




Didn't you hear? 

"The 'Rona is just like gremlins; it doesn't turn bad unless you feed it after midnight."

-A scientist, probably.


----------



## ad_hoc

Mallus said:


> Apparently the soaring number of cases isn't enough. Maybe the body count hitting 200K will do the trick?




At this point people are entrenched.

Their identity is linked to the idea that it is fake. It's an ideological issue which to the rest of the world is mind boggling. 

A minimum of 1 million people would need to be counted dead I think.

A really terrible thing about all this is the permanent damage it does to people. Apparently even in asymptomatic people they have seen brain damage through CTScans.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> One of my friends might try their hand at DMing over the Internet coming up. They suggested the Lost Mines of Phandelver so that is something to look forward to.




LMoP is a good intro module.  I hope you have an awesome time playing it!


----------



## Ryujin

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Everything ends.
> 
> I think what makes me so sad and unhappy is that some of us sacrificed for nothing. I did all the right things.
> 
> ...and now it's roaring back, worse than before.




Well if the US goes on the way that they've been going it seems that those of us in Mexico and Canada will end up having some nice pre-owned land to annex, in a year or so.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Ryujin said:


> Well if the US goes on the way that they've been going it seems that those of us in Mexico and Canada will end up having some nice pre-owned land to annex, in a year or so.




Are you saying that land, in America, will be cleared out because the native inhabitants were killed off by disease, allowing others to take it?

....Naw. Couldn't happen.


----------



## Ryujin

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Are you saying that land, in America, will be cleared out because the native inhabitants were killed off by disease, allowing others to take it?
> 
> ....Naw. Couldn't happen.




Wouldn't even involve blankets this time.


----------



## Mallus

Ryujin said:


> Wouldn't even involve blankets this time.



This time it will involve red hats!


----------



## Umbran

Mallus said:


> This time it will involve red hats!




No.  Masks.  Otherwise, rather than giving the remaining natives disease, you'll be catching it from them...


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

I also share the sentiment that my sacrifice was seemingly for nothing. I'm sure it helped a bit, but my area is so screwed that it sucks. I'm going to keep doing all the right things, but it just sucks that so much of my country seemingly cares nothing about the lives of other people.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

He was _sooooooo_ close to getting the science right...









						GOP State Lawmaker: 'I Want To See More People' Get Coronavirus
					

Del Marsh, a state senator in Alabama, said he's “not concerned” with the spike in infections and touted the controversial idea of herd immunity.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Ryujin

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I also share the sentiment that my sacrifice was seemingly for nothing. I'm sure it helped a bit, but my area is so screwed that it sucks. I'm going to keep doing all the right things, but it just sucks that so much of my country seemingly cares nothing about the lives of other people.




At least you're less likely to be a contributing factor, so you can keep a clear conscience, and also protect yourself, and your family at the same time.


----------



## Istbor

Umbran said:


> LMoP is a good intro module.  I hope you have an awesome time playing it!




Agreed. I think it a good short adventure to cut your teeth on. Hopefully he enjoys the role of DM.


----------



## ccs

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Didn't you hear?
> 
> "The 'Rona is just like gremlins; it doesn't turn bad unless you feed it after midnight."
> 
> -A scientist, probably.




Could also be a president of something or other.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ccs said:


> Snarf Zagyg said:
> 
> 
> 
> Didn't you hear?
> 
> "The 'Rona is just like gremlins; it doesn't turn bad unless you feed it after midnight."
> 
> -A scientist, probably.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Could also be a president of something or other.
Click to expand...


I’m seeing hooks for a Modern Horror/Fantasy story arc...


----------



## Zardnaar

Crazy our bubble is essentially the whole country sans done isolation facilities. 

 Apart from border controls business as usual last 6 weeks or so. 

 From memory this is kinda like NY a week or so before they were overwhelmed.


----------



## GreyLord

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Idahonoooooooo!




This is mind boggling.  

Why is the US acting like this (or parts of it).

The most effective thing to get the US to change right now I think is for every other location in the World to ban travel to and from the US, but more than that...ban ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING coming and going from the US until the virus is under control.  That would probably change their tune within 1 or 2 months (hard heads are hard to convince).

If the US says it's about the economy, then shut the economy down and that argument no longer has any legs to stand on.

I'm not sure how to make the US see more sense, and I am unfortunately in the heart of it (as many of us are).


----------



## Hussar

The problem is, we sell far more TO the USA than we buy from them.  There's a reason people talk about trade deficit.  Cutting US imports would hurt the US a lot less than the US cutting our exports in retaliation.  

Sigh.  Tokyo is having a couple of days of big spikes - 200 cases a day after weeks of 40-50 ish.  My area is still seeing half a dozen or so cases a day.  Manageable.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ignore technical issue.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> The problem is, we sell far more TO the USA than we buy from them.  There's a reason people talk about trade deficit.  Cutting US imports would hurt the US a lot less than the US cutting our exports in retaliation.
> 
> Sigh.  Tokyo is having a couple of days of big spikes - 200 cases a day after weeks of 40-50 ish.  My area is still seeing half a dozen or so cases a day.  Manageable.




 Trade war was Great Depression. Emphasize the great part.


----------



## Eltab

Theo R Cwithin said:


> This pandemic thing is never going to end in the US, is it?



When the authorities get around to containing the virus (and locating / quarantining infected people) instead of hassling everybody 'just in case'.


----------



## Eltab

Mallus said:


> This time it will involve red hats!



... or riots.
But EnWorld's rule of No Politics has not been repealed.  So let's turn the conversation away from a finger-pointing contest.


----------



## Eltab

GreyLord said:


> This is mind boggling.
> 
> Why is the US acting like this (or parts of it).
> 
> The most effective thing to get the US to change right now I think is for every other location in the World to ban travel to and from the US, but more than that...ban ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING coming and going from the US until the virus is under control.  That would probably change their tune within 1 or 2 months (hard heads are hard to convince).
> 
> If the US says it's about the economy, then shut the economy down and that argument no longer has any legs to stand on.
> 
> I'm not sure how to make the US see more sense, and I am unfortunately in the heart of it (as many of us are).



i get the frustration, but ...
Most people in the US do not see "what does the rest of the world think?" as something to worry about.  
A world-wide trade boycott will turn into a US drive for more Made in USA products: we can take care of our needs ourselves.

To get a bunch of independent stubborn self-reliant people to change their behavior, you need to show them that making the change is better than current conditions.  Whether that be "trade in your horse and buggy for a Model T" or "wear a mask".


----------



## Janx

GreyLord said:


> This is mind boggling.
> 
> Why is the US acting like this (or parts of it).
> 
> The most effective thing to get the US to change right now I think is for every other location in the World to ban travel to and from the US, but more than that...ban ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING coming and going from the US until the virus is under control.  That would probably change their tune within 1 or 2 months (hard heads are hard to convince).
> 
> If the US says it's about the economy, then shut the economy down and that argument no longer has any legs to stand on.
> 
> I'm not sure how to make the US see more sense, and I am unfortunately in the heart of it (as many of us are).



Why?

Because entities internal and external to the United States benefit from chaos, infection, fear and divisiveness.

It's not hard to be further divided once you see a % of the populist is bigoted nutjobs.  Kinda hard to ignore that.

Meanwhile, cutting off the US.  What do you hope to achieve?  Mask wearing?  Self isolationing?

Don't forget that the USA fought WW2 on two fronts using all its own supplies and manufacturing. We have tons of resources.  Not much manufacturing anymore, but a world quarrantine of the US would encourage us to spin up all that stuff again and make people go to work. Exact opposite effect.

Add to that, resentment against the world.  Worked great for Germany post WW1. By great, I mean that's how evil starts. Got good.


----------



## Nebulous

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I also share the sentiment that my sacrifice was seemingly for nothing. I'm sure it helped a bit, but my area is so screwed that it sucks. I'm going to keep doing all the right things, but it just sucks that so much of my country seemingly cares nothing about the lives of other people.




I know. Beaches are filled, lakes are packed, people not wearing masks left and right.  I don't understand what's going on.  It's out of control and growing worse every day.  I've had a lot of health problems this past year, I almost died in November, I do NOT want this thing as a new health problem, so I'm still quarantined and going stir crazy.


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> Why is the US acting like this (or parts of it).




The answer to this is _heavily_ lodged in US politics since the 1960s, and is thus not really appropriate for these boards.


----------



## Cadence

GreyLord said:


> Why is the US acting like this (or parts of it).






Umbran said:


> The answer to this is _heavily_ lodged in US politics since the 1960s, and is thus not really appropriate for these boards.




If anyone is looking for some off-the-boards summer reading...  In spite of some errors here or there in its 900-or-so pages, I thought Lepore's "These Truths: A History of the United States" gave a fairly lively read through how America came to where it is.  Following up with what various critics have to say about it can probably be used to fill another decent chunk of being-stuck-at-home time.


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> If the US says it's about the economy, then shut the economy down and that argument no longer has any legs to stand on.




The problem being, of course, that the number of people who would become destitute and homeless before action actually had an effect would be very large.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

GreyLord said:


> This is mind boggling.
> 
> Why is the US acting like this (or parts of it).
> 
> The most effective thing to get the US to change right now I think is for every other location in the World to ban travel to and from the US, but more than that...ban ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING coming and going from the US until the virus is under control.  That would probably change their tune within 1 or 2 months (hard heads are hard to convince).
> 
> If the US says it's about the economy, then shut the economy down and that argument no longer has any legs to stand on.
> 
> I'm not sure how to make the US see more sense, and I am unfortunately in the heart of it (as many of us are).



You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it wear a surgical mask to protect the rest of the herd.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> A world-wide trade boycott will turn into a US drive for more Made in USA products: we can take care of our needs ourselves.



Yeahhhh, but that would take a LOT of time, and there are certain resources we really don’t have a lot of, relatively speaking, like lithium (see China) and titanium (see Russia).

Sectors like textiles might turn around quickly, but not high tech.



Janx said:


> Don't forget that the USA fought WW2 on two fronts using all its own supplies and manufacturing. We have tons of resources.  Not much manufacturing anymore, but a world quarrantine of the US would encourage us to spin up all that stuff again and make people go to work. Exact opposite effect.



Currently, we manufacture more in this country than ever before.  Thing is, our factories are extremely automated, so we’re doing that with millions fewer employees.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Eltab said:


> we can take care of our needs ourselves.



We can't even get spring breakers and "freedumb fighters" to do something as simple as wear masks, so I seriously doubt the US could get its shizzle together enough to divorce itself from the world in any way that is even remotely civilized.


----------



## Cadence

Theo R Cwithin said:


> We can't even get spring breakers and "freedumb fighters" to do something as simple as wear masks, so I seriously doubt the US could get its shizzle together enough to divorce itself from the world in any way that is even remotely civilized.




We seem to be very good at tribally reacting when we feel attacked.  Which is great in coming together in WWII and bad when your politicians weaponize 24 hour news and social media to harness lower level tribalism for their own goals.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

Cadence said:


> We seem to be very good at reacting when we feel attacked.  Which is great in coming together in WWII and bad when your politicians weaponize 24 hour news and social media to harness that for their own goals.



That's exactly what's so disheartening about this pandemic: effectively we _are_ being attacked, and so we _are_ in this together. But for whatever reason, the powers that be seem intent on pulling us apart instead of pulling us together to deal with it. 
Maybe it would be different if the virus caused us to explode in spectacular gory fashion or something.


----------



## ad_hoc

GreyLord said:


> This is mind boggling.
> 
> Why is the US acting like this (or parts of it).
> 
> The most effective thing to get the US to change right now I think is for every other location in the World to ban travel to and from the US, but more than that...ban ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING coming and going from the US until the virus is under control.  That would probably change their tune within 1 or 2 months (hard heads are hard to convince).
> 
> If the US says it's about the economy, then shut the economy down and that argument no longer has any legs to stand on.
> 
> I'm not sure how to make the US see more sense, and I am unfortunately in the heart of it (as many of us are).




That's simply not possible with Canada.

20% of Canada's GDP is from exports to the US translating to $400 billion per year.

Canada is the US's top country for exports too. The US exports $300 billion of goods per year to Canada.

The USA has a trade deficit of over $600 billion per year so the numbers make sense.

Can't just shut off $700 billion of trade.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ad_hoc said:


> That's simply not possible with Canada.
> 
> 20% of Canada's GDP is from exports to the US translating to $400 billion per year.
> 
> Canada is the US's top country for exports too. The US exports $300 billion of goods per year to Canada.
> 
> The USA has a trade deficit of over $600 billion per year so the numbers make sense.
> 
> Can't just shut off $700 billion of trade.



You say that NOW.

Just wait until our anti-maskers and Covid-hoaxers start licking our exports...


----------



## ad_hoc

The US pressures Canada to reopen. Canada wants nothing of it.









						Canadians push back as U.S. Congress pressures Canada to reopen shared border
					

As U.S. members of Congress push Canada to reopen its shared border with the United States, Canadians are pushing back — both in government and on social media.



					www.ctvnews.ca
				




In Canadian news Ontario just dropped below 1500 cases, down to 1456. 

That's down 25% since Toronto reopened 2 weeks ago.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Go, Canada!


----------



## ad_hoc

Person attends Covid party, dies.









						30-Year-Old Coronavirus Hoax Theorist Who Attended 'Covid Party' Dies Of Covid-19
					

The 30-year-old patient didn't believe the virus was real




					www.ladbible.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Janx said:


> Why?
> 
> Because entities internal and external to the United States benefit from chaos, infection, fear and divisiveness.
> 
> It's not hard to be further divided once you see a % of the populist is bigoted nutjobs.  Kinda hard to ignore that.
> 
> Meanwhile, cutting off the US.  What do you hope to achieve?  Mask wearing?  Self isolationing?
> 
> Don't forget that the USA fought WW2 on two fronts using all its own supplies and manufacturing. We have tons of resources.  Not much manufacturing anymore, but a world quarrantine of the US would encourage us to spin up all that stuff again and make people go to work. Exact opposite effect.
> 
> Add to that, resentment against the world.  Worked great for Germany post WW1. By great, I mean that's how evil starts. Got good.




 USA has declined to the point they can't refight WW2 again.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

_(So since this is technically also a D&D thread....)_

Is anyone finding that groups are shying away from "plague" as a theme in games they're playing or otherwise aware of?  

I have no input on the matter, as I'm not actively playing. I'm just curious about others' experiences.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> The US pressures Canada to reopen. Canada wants nothing of it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canadians push back as U.S. Congress pressures Canada to reopen shared border
> 
> 
> As U.S. members of Congress push Canada to reopen its shared border with the United States, Canadians are pushing back — both in government and on social media.
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In Canadian news Ontario just dropped below 1500 cases, down to 1456.
> 
> That's down 25% since Toronto reopened 2 weeks ago.




 They'll start figuring it out when USians can't go anywhere.

 Even if places like Florida is open tourism well be down due to Covid/job losses/international restrictions. 


 Technically we can travel but you've got two weeks of Quarantine that you might have to pay for by the time you get back ($249 USD a day).


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Utawwdangit!









						Utah group organizes 'flash mobs' at grocery stores to oppose face masks
					

A Utah group has been organizing what they call flash mobs, where they show up to grocery stores without  face masks.       Caption: KUTV: Kelly Vaughen reports.  The group “Defending Utah” has organized the demonstrations, and said they have plenty more planned for the future. Supporters who...




					kutv.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Theo R Cwithin said:


> _(So since this is technically also a D&D thread....)_
> 
> Is anyone finding that groups are shying away from "plague" as a theme in games they're playing or otherwise aware of?
> 
> I have no input on the matter, as I'm not actively playing. I'm just curious about others' experiences.




I‘m not currently in an active gaming group at the moment.  So speaking only for myself, should I ever run another campaign, “plague” themes won’t automatically be off the table.  If anything, I’ve gotten all new kinds of ideas about how NPCs might react...

That said, I also would treat a plague storyline like anything else potentially controversial- I’d definitely try to figure out if anyone in the group would have a problem with such a theme before I ran it.  And if I misread the room, I wouldn’t push on- scrapping a campaign is better than trampling a friend.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Utawwdangit!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Utah group organizes 'flash mobs' at grocery stores to oppose face masks
> 
> 
> A Utah group has been organizing what they call flash mobs, where they show up to grocery stores without  face masks.       Caption: KUTV: Kelly Vaughen reports.  The group “Defending Utah” has organized the demonstrations, and said they have plenty more planned for the future. Supporters who...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> kutv.com




 Sigh. 

 I thought there were a few sane countries out there but it's a lot fewer than I thought. 

 Numbers going up in Japan and Australia. I think Australia will lick it down ok, Europes reopening to soon IMHO. 

 Went out for breakfast with inlaws today. Father in law is in his 60s not best of health so we wouldn't do it in most if the world. 










 First in the door, they got around 25-30 people 930-10:30 am Sunday morning.

  Everything's open no restrictions. 

 Wonder if that's unique atm. Australia it's regional, not sure about Vietnam. 

 Our local right wingers were pushing for reopening asap using Sweden and Australia as examples. Proportionally Sweden was worse than USA, Aussies still doing well by international standards but has locked down Melbourne and Victoria (Melbourne is in Victoria).

  They rolled the leader of the opposition he became electoral poison.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

I don't know what that breakfast is, but...


----------



## Zardnaar

Theo R Cwithin said:


> I don't know what that breakfast is, but...




 Pancakes, yogurt, berries In a berry compote.

 $8 USD approx. Was very good.

Winter but that's the Pacific ocean in the background.

 In lockdown they were being renovated so reopened post lockdown.


----------



## GreyLord

Theo R Cwithin said:


> _(So since this is technically also a D&D thread....)_
> 
> Is anyone finding that groups are shying away from "plague" as a theme in games they're playing or otherwise aware of?
> 
> I have no input on the matter, as I'm not actively playing. I'm just curious about others' experiences.




I haven't actually thought of running a plague game recently.  Perhaps that's due to the virus, I don't know.  The thought hadn't occurred to me until you mentioned it.

Perhaps I haven't really contemplated it due to the situation today.


----------



## Cadence

Theo R Cwithin said:


> _(So since this is technically also a D&D thread....)_
> 
> Is anyone finding that groups are shying away from "plague" as a theme in games they're playing or otherwise aware of?
> 
> I have no input on the matter, as I'm not actively playing. I'm just curious about others' experiences.




Investigating why an awful illness has infected their entire village (except them; have described the symptoms as stomach affecting and exhausting) is the hook for the game I started running for my 10yo and two of his friends this month.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Eltab said:


> ... or riots.



It's been shown that the protests and riots don't increase the spread of the virus in a significant manner.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> The problem being, of course, that the number of people who would become destitute and homeless before action actually had an effect would be very large.



And other countries have found out ways to avoid this, I'm sure we could in America as well.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Theo R Cwithin said:


> _(So since this is technically also a D&D thread....)_
> 
> Is anyone finding that groups are shying away from "plague" as a theme in games they're playing or otherwise aware of?
> 
> I have no input on the matter, as I'm not actively playing. I'm just curious about others' experiences.



Speaking of this, Explorer's Guide to Wildemount, which was released this year, has a starting adventure levels 1-3 where the players have to cure a disease, possibly getting infected as well. I read that, and immediately vowed to not use it this year, as it's a bit close to home.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Nebulous said:


> I know. Beaches are filled, lakes are packed, people not wearing masks left and right.  I don't understand what's going on.  It's out of control and growing worse every day.  I've had a lot of health problems this past year, I almost died in November, I do NOT want this thing as a new health problem, so I'm still quarantined and going stir crazy.



That sucks. A lot of members of my family are more likely to have a hard time with the disease, I have asthma and so do 2 of my sisters. A few other relatives have diabetes, one has a heart condition, so I've been really careful during this pandemic.


----------



## briggart

Theo R Cwithin said:


> _(So since this is technically also a D&D thread....)_
> 
> Is anyone finding that groups are shying away from "plague" as a theme in games they're playing or otherwise aware of?
> 
> I have no input on the matter, as I'm not actively playing. I'm just curious about others' experiences.



Not really. Spoilers for GoS.



Spoiler



The PCs failed to find Oceanus and the weapons on the Sea Ghost. They figured the council would let them keep the ship and its content so they didn't bother to carefully search the ship. By the time they got back to town, met with the council and were told they were not actually going to get the  ship, a couple of days had passed. They were offered some money for the cargo, but they figured out they could get more by directly selling the cargo, so by nighttime they came up with an excuse to get the two guards posted to the ship to allow them back on for a short time. The plan was for one of them to keep the guards distracted while the other would smuggle part of the cargo.

This time, the PCs found Oceanus, who I decided had died after a few more days without food and water. So they told the guard they found a body, but it looked like he had some kind of disease, and asked the guards to move farther from the ship and keep people away from the dock. They figured this would give them a better chance of stealing some of the cargo. The guards did follow PCs suggestion, but they also warned the council and a few minutes later Eda stormed on the ship with the town cleric on tow, who examined the body and failed to find any disease. The PCs claimed they had never seen a sea elf and assumed that his skin color was a sign of illness, and managed to convince Eda they were on the level. But they were forced to leave the boat.

The incident was closed, but rereading Chapter 1, I noticed one of the Scarlet Brotherhood events:


> Tainted grain delivered by a merchant in league with the Brotherhood leads to an outbreak of plague.




The Brotherhood is now moving on with this, and will spin it to blame it on the body found on the Sea Ghost and the PCs.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> USA has declined to the point they can't refight WW2 again.




Economically speaking, at the start of WWII, we weren't at the point where we could fight WWII either.  Wars that big change things.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> i get the frustration, but ...
> Most people in the US do not see "what does the rest of the world think?" as something to worry about.
> A world-wide trade boycott will turn into a US drive for more Made in USA products: we can take care of our needs ourselves.




Except the life we've come accustomed to is no longer supportable without international trade.  For example, all the electronics that run our current world are dependent on raw materials we don't have much of on US soil.

Coffee.  Imagine asking the US to go without coffee!


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> Coffee.  Imagine asking the US to go without coffee!



I've done that all my life; coffee just doesn't taste good to me.

Americans used to drink tea like ... well like Englishmen ... until the early 1770s.  Then a nasty disagreement sprang up and tea consumption dropped way off.  
I imagine a coffee-supplying nation today trying to use coffee imports as an arm-twister on Americans will just make their product unpopular, not encourage the change they were expecting.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Economically speaking, at the start of WWII, we weren't at the point where we could fight WWII either.  Wars that big change things.




 Not strictly true. UK and French armaments orders had revived US production. When France was defeated the US government took over the orders and was providing lend lease before they entered the war. 

 After that it mostly was just paying for stuff. Except synthetic rubber that was a major new development. 

 The infrastructure was there, they did build some new stuff. That's all gone now the USA can't match WW2 Aluminum iirc even if they came up with the money. 

  They paid Boeing and Ford to produce stuff. They can't build an F22 that fast anymore or even the F35. 

 A tank cost the equivalent of a few hundred thousand dollars, a bomber a couple of million. 

 Back then the biggest oil producer was also the US. Might still be but proportionally speaking it was bigger.

 Pre Covid US debt was over 100% of GDP,  UK was also high. I'll have to find the exact figures but the debt load isn't that far off the war years. 

 UK finished paying off the war in 2006 iirc. 

 The US deficit spending is a lot more limited. NZ went into it with debt of 30% and our government can sustain things for 5-10 years and proportionally be in the spot the US was in March. 

 Unemployment is about half the US, projected to peak around 9%. Right now US is around 13% iirc.

 Basically what they can do is a lot more restrained than say 2008.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> I've done that all my life; coffee just doesn't taste good to me.




Nor me, but the rest of the world seems to run on Starbucks and Dunkin'.



> Americans used to drink tea like ... well like Englishmen ... until the early 1770s.




Yeah, but those habits are 250 years gone now.  And, neither here nor there, because we dont' grow tea in the US either.  So, we'd have to quickly develop a taste for Yaupon, the only known pant native to North America that produces caffeine...


----------



## Hussar

@Zardnaar - the point you seem to forget is that, unlike pre-WWII, the US outspends the entire planet in their military.  By a considerable margin.  All without raising taxes or any sort of austerity program.  

They don't need WWII levels of production because they already far outstrip WWII levels of production.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> @Zardnaar - the point you seem to forget is that, unlike pre-WWII, the US outspends the entire planet in their military.  By a considerable margin.  All without raising taxes or any sort of austerity program.
> 
> They don't need WWII levels of production because they already far outstrip WWII levels of production.




 True it's more of a example of USA being worse off. 

 The depression and war years are the only examples we really have with reliable data to compare with.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Japan is 'shocked' and furious at the US after a major coronavirus outbreak at 2 Marine bases in Okinawa — and says the US is not taking the virus seriously
					

"We now have strong doubts that the US military has taken adequate disease prevention measures," Okinawa governor Denny Tamaki said.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




Apparently, this is us now.


----------



## Hussar

Good grief, I hadn't seen that one.  

There just aren't any words anymore.


----------



## Zardnaar

The one I read earlier in the day. 









						Japan Governor Demands Increased COVID-19 Prevention Measures After 61 U.S. Marines Infected on Okinawa
					

The disclosure of the exact figures came only after Okinawa island's repeated requests to the U.S. military




					time.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

_squueeeak!_


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> _squueeeak!_




 I lost to a plague rats deck once.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’ve created a few ratty decks myself.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’ve created a few ratty decks myself.




 Happier news. Number 1 at the box office. 

 Empire Strikes Back. 









						Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back tops box office again
					

It's the first time in 23 years that the movie has topped the charts.




					www.digitalspy.com
				




No new movies, show old ones.


----------



## Zardnaar

American friend sent me this.









						New Zealand To Quarantine People In Isolation ‘For Months, Maybe Years,’ Epidemiologist Says | The Daily Wire
					






					www.dailywire.com
				




WTF is going in there. Apparently it's a conservative piece. Not familiar with the source. 

We've had 4 people break out of mandatory quarantine out of around 4000.

It's not exactly prison camps you spend 14 days in a motel. Probably boring but steak, lamb, catering look after you.  Costs the government about $8000. Cost to you 0 except two weeks.

 You can leave the country, two weeks Quarantine on reserve. No one's forcing returning NZers to come home but yeah mandatory quarantine. 

 In the article it mentions new cases. Fails to mention they're all imported. 

Compliance is 99.9% atm. Love American news. It's why I use BBC/Reuters.


----------



## Hussar

It's utterly shocking what people will believe.

People would actually rather believe the New Zealand is turning into a police state than any other alternative.   

I bet you could solve the energy crisis if you could hook up Occam to a turbine right now.  He must be spinning in his grave at damn near light speed.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> It's utterly shocking what people will believe.
> 
> People would actually rather believe the New Zealand is turning into a police state than any other alternative.
> 
> I bet you could solve the energy crisis if you could hook up Occam to a turbine right now.  He must be spinning in his grave at damn near light speed.




 Well you could theoretically do it easy enough passing two laws. Well repealing one and passing another.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> American friend sent me this.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Zealand To Quarantine People In Isolation ‘For Months, Maybe Years,’ Epidemiologist Says | The Daily Wire
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailywire.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WTF is going in there. Apparently it's a conservative piece. Not familiar with the source.
> 
> We've had 4 people break out of mandatory quarantine out of around 4000.
> 
> It's not exactly prison camps you spend 14 days in a motel. Probably boring but steak, lamb, catering look after you.  Costs the government about $8000. Cost to you 0 except two weeks.
> 
> You can leave the country, two weeks Quarantine on reserve. No one's forcing returning NZers to come home but yeah mandatory quarantine.
> 
> In the article it mentions new cases. Fails to mention they're all imported.
> 
> Compliance is 99.9% atm. Love American news. It's why I use BBC/Reuters.




There's a widely circulated media bias graph, that seems to be the go-to for many. It rates Daily Wire as being high on factual inaccuracy and far to the Right.









						How biased is your news source? You probably won’t agree with this chart
					

Are we even aware of our biases anymore? If you look at this chart and are convinced your “extreme” source belongs in the middle, you just might be part of...




					www.marketwatch.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> There's a widely circulated media bias graph, that seems to be the go-to for many. It rates Daily Wire as being high on factual inaccuracy and far to the Right.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How biased is your news source? You probably won’t agree with this chart
> 
> 
> Are we even aware of our biases anymore? If you look at this chart and are convinced your “extreme” source belongs in the middle, you just might be part of...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.marketwatch.com




 Yeah I didn't check it this time. Only slightly out if context.


----------



## Istbor

Theo R Cwithin said:


> _(So since this is technically also a D&D thread....)_
> 
> Is anyone finding that groups are shying away from "plague" as a theme in games they're playing or otherwise aware of?
> 
> I have no input on the matter, as I'm not actively playing. I'm just curious about others' experiences.




Eh. I mean, I like a good Grandpappy Nurgle campaign. However, we typically use the game to escape reality for a few hours every two weeks. So I won't be doing anything like this for a while at least.


----------



## Umbran

Theo R Cwithin said:


> Is anyone finding that groups are shying away from "plague" as a theme in games they're playing or otherwise aware of?




Well, my wife's book club has put a hold on books with disease-based plots, including zombies.  And I'd certainly pass on running such a plot, if my game had not just wrapped its campaign.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Ryujin said:


> There's a widely circulated media bias graph, that seems to be the go-to for many. It rates Daily Wire as being high on factual inaccuracy and far to the Right.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How biased is your news source? You probably won’t agree with this chart
> 
> 
> Are we even aware of our biases anymore? If you look at this chart and are convinced your “extreme” source belongs in the middle, you just might be part of...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.marketwatch.com



That graph seems a bit out of date. OANN is quite further than Fox News to the conservative side nowadays. 

It is crazy on what some of the more platforms are telling viewers about the pandemic.


----------



## Ryujin

AcererakTriple6 said:


> That graph seems a bit out of date. OANN is quite further than Fox News to the conservative side nowadays.
> 
> It is crazy on what some of the more platforms are telling viewers about the pandemic.




That article had the 2018 chart. Latest on the site, I believe, is 2019. OAN sits in pretty much the same position; maybe slightly Right of Fox, but with a small amount of fewer factual errors.









						Interactive Chart | Ad Fontes Media
					

Interactive Media Bias Chart® Discover our Interactive Media Bias Chart to see where your favorite news sources fall on the reliability and bias spectrum. Use the search boxes to find sources that aren’t displayed by default. 0 Total sources Use search box to find sources not displayed by...




					www.adfontesmedia.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ryujin said:


> That article had the 2018 chart. Latest on the site, I believe, is 2019. OAN sits in pretty much the same position; maybe slightly Right of Fox, but with a small amount of fewer factual errors.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interactive Chart | Ad Fontes Media
> 
> 
> Interactive Media Bias Chart® Discover our Interactive Media Bias Chart to see where your favorite news sources fall on the reliability and bias spectrum. Use the search boxes to find sources that aren’t displayed by default. 0 Total sources Use search box to find sources not displayed by...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.adfontesmedia.com



Which is still a bit off.  I mean, some of their staff are also employed by the Kremlin’s loudspeaker, Sputnik.  The lost their suit against MSNBC & Maddie for saying they were uttering Russian propaganda.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Which is still a bit off.  I mean, some of their staff are also employed by the Kremlin’s loudspeaker, Sputnik.  The lost their suit against MSNBC & Maddie for saying they were uttering Russian propaganda.



I hadn't heard that before.


----------



## Ryujin

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I hadn't heard that before.




Funny thing about media companies, is they know how to stay out of media.


----------



## Umbran

Okay, folks, can we bring this back around to the plague and gaming, or at lease closer to it, rather than the political leanings of news sources? Thanks.


----------



## Deset Gled

In other news, our school district is in a constant state of flux about planning for the fall.  So far they've released at least two plans for re-opening, and both times they have been partially thrown out in less than a week based off of new guidelines.  I feel like our administrators are doing a legitimately good job, but there's just nothing they can do to keep on top of things at this point.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

My county is still increasing in numbers, we never stopped increasing in numbers or never got a handle on our situation in any way, and we're starting to open up, somehow.


----------



## GreyLord

Deset Gled said:


> In other news, our school district is in a constant state of flux about planning for the fall.  So far they've released at least two plans for re-opening, and both times they have been partially thrown out in less than a week based off of new guidelines.  I feel like our administrators are doing a legitimately good job, but there's just nothing they can do to keep on top of things at this point.




In the US, many of the plans I see are them wanting to force teachers and students back to school.  I expect lawsuits will break out when people catch it from their students and/or people die from catching it from the kids.  May bankrupt a school district or two before they actually realize that it was a bad idea to force people to go to schools full time in the middle of a pandemic.

The bigger irony is that many of these are the anti-maskers that want to proclaim their freedom, but have no qualms about denying others their freedom and wish to force students and teachers into confined closed spaces for hours a day.

Bringing this full circle, Most D&D modules don't seem to have these situations.  Normally, you are the party of adventurers sent to find the cure or to find ingredients to cure the disease which is going around.  The town is having problems and everyone is afraid.  I can't recall adventures where you have people actually denying the disease or trying to go out and get it themselves (or, in zombie movies where you have a group denying that there are undead, or trying to become the undead themselves.  Normally they run screaming from it instead).

Weird dynamic.  I wonder how a module or gaming adventure would run if you had a group of inhabitants as an obstacle to the adventurers in a plague adventure.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> In the US, many of the plans I see are them wanting to force teachers and students back to school.  I expect lawsuits will break out when people catch it from their students and/or people die from catching it from the kids.  May bankrupt a school district or two before they actually realize that it was a bad idea to force people to go to schools full time in the middle of a pandemic.
> 
> The bigger irony is that many of these are the anti-maskers that want to proclaim their freedom, but have no qualms about denying others their freedom and wish to force students and teachers into confined closed spaces for hours a day.
> 
> Bringing this full circle, Most D&D modules don't seem to have these situations.  Normally, you are the party of adventurers sent to find the cure or to find ingredients to cure the disease which is going around.  The town is having problems and everyone is afraid.  I can't recall adventures where you have people actually denying the disease or trying to go out and get it themselves (or, in zombie movies where you have a group denying that there are undead, or trying to become the undead themselves.  Normally they run screaming from it instead).
> 
> Weird dynamic.  I wonder how a module or gaming adventure would run if you had a group of inhabitants as an obstacle to the adventurers in a plague adventure.




In D&D you can murder hobo stuff. Takes care of it


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Preliminary, but ominous.


> The new research based on data from 69 countries, published in the European Heart Journal and commissioned by the British Heart Foundation, found that 55% of 1,261 patients scanned had abnormally functioning hearts.
> 
> Around one in seven patients who were scanned showed "severe abnormalities" which were likely to have a significant impact on their chances of survival and recovery.
> 
> A majority — 901 patients — of those with abnormally functioning hearts had not demonstrated heart problems before, leading the authors of the report to conclude that the coronavirus is responsible for causing heart problems.












						Coronavirus can damage the heart, according to a study which found abnormalities in over half of patients tested
					

A growing field of evidence suggests coronavirus damages not only the heart but also other major organs.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Deset Gled

"Orange County education leaders voted 4 to 1 Monday evening to approve recommendations for reopening schools in the fall that do not include the mandatory use of masks for students or increased social distancing in classrooms amid a surge in coronavirus cases."









						Orange County education leaders want schools to reopen without masks or social distancing
					

The Orange County Board of Education voted 4-1 to reopen school campuses but is leaving the decision up to individual school districts.




					www.latimes.com
				




So, that's happening, I guess.


----------



## Deset Gled

GreyLord said:


> In the US, many of the plans I see are them wanting to force teachers and students back to school.  I expect lawsuits will break out when people catch it from their students and/or people die from catching it from the kids.  May bankrupt a school district or two before they actually realize that it was a bad idea to force people to go to schools full time in the middle of a pandemic.




I don't think any districts will end up being sue-able.  As long as there is a set of "recommendations" from the government at some level and the school districts can show they made an effort to follow the guidelines, they will be legally protected.

Which puts us in the unfortunate scenario where school guidelines and recommendations are being written to protect the government from lawsuits, not to protect the students.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

GreyLord said:


> Weird dynamic. I wonder how a module or gaming adventure would run if you had a group of inhabitants as an obstacle to the adventurers in a plague adventure.



That brings to mind a PF adventure   "Seven Days to the Grave" in _Curse of the Crimson Throne _where, iirc, a plague was spread on magically befouled gold coins. I don't recall much about that particular story, but  I could certainly envision a subtler version of that in which very powerful interests in banking (or politics or criminal orgs or whatever) pitting the health of the townsfolk against the health of the economy (or the power of local temple hierarch or the thieves guild or whatever). 
Layering a deep intrigue onto a slow-burn plague scenario could be interesting....


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

GreyLord said:


> Weird dynamic. I wonder how a module or gaming adventure would run if you had a group of inhabitants as an obstacle to the adventurers in a plague adventure.



Yeah. It's crazy to think about. Real life seems crazier than D&D adventures right now. The townsfolk in a plague adventure are always the victims, not the problem. 

I guess if we want D&D plague adventures to be realistic, we're going to have to make groups of people who insist that the plague isn't real/isn't a big deal.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

”Doubting Thomas” looking down from heaven saying, “Y’all been ragging on me for 2000 years, but now look at you!”


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yeah. It's crazy to think about. Real life seems crazier than D&D adventures right now. The townsfolk in a plague adventure are always the victims, not the problem.
> 
> I guess if we want D&D plague adventures to be realistic, we're going to have to make groups of people who insist that the plague isn't real/isn't a big deal.




Well, so, here's a bit of a difference between what we are experiencing now, and what the pseudo-medieval reaction to plagues we expect to be....

The Black Death killed something more than 25 million people over the course of five years.  Perhaps 30% of the population of Europe died.  It took two centuries for the population to recover.  There was nothing in human knowledge at the time that could be done to stop it.  

Covid-19 has killed something over half a million worldwide over seven months or so.

The difference is that the impact of the Black Death was undeniable.  If you were in it... _a third of the population died in front of you_.  Right now, people dying from covid-19... are not seen. They are someone else, somewhere else, off in the hospital.  You don't see so much as a funeral procession.  It is invisible.  And our cognitive apparatus is not built to take invisible things seriously.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Just remembering...

The best campaign I ever ran was a supers game set in the year 1900 using HERO paired with an expanded version of the setting from Space:1889.  That was for a group in Austin in the mid 1990s.

Just a few years ago- 2014-15, I think- I tried updating that campaign setting by advancing it a decade+ and using Mutants & Masterminds for my group here in Dallas.  It flopped (for a variety of reasons) and ended before it gathered any steam.  But one of the things that was a part of the planned story arc was the outbreak of WW1 and the Spanish Flu...


----------



## Hussar

Well, isn't Tomb of Annihilation based around a plague of sorts?


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Hussar said:


> Well, isn't Tomb of Annihilation based around a plague of sorts?



Not really. There are diseases in it, and there is the Death Curse, but it's not really a plague.


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I guess if we want D&D plague adventures to be realistic, we're going to have to make groups of people who insist that the plague isn't real/isn't a big deal.



The local leadership is "a hydra" - a bunch of people each doing their own thing, not working together.  Use _Dangerous Liasons_ to get a feel for the local nobility: other people (especially lower-class people) are just pawns to be played with.

One noble is all for a lockdown right away in his neighborhood: he wants the plague-ridden peasants off the streets and out of his way when he and his family / entourage get outta town, probably on a breezy day (to "blow away the vapors / miasma")

Two important leaders are more interested in blaming each other for every bad-news item that happens, than in addressing the problem.

The local cleric of the god(dess) of disease is giving out advice for how to catch the plague, not how to stay away from it, because that is what his deity wants.  Folks come to him and ask "What should we do?" and he answers them, ignoring the fact they really mean "What should we do to protect ourselves? "

Somebody has found a treatment - but the hoi-polloi or the rabble don't get to make important decisions or tell The Important People what to do.

Somebody's gonna do it: "It's the halflings / elves / dragonborns / humans fault, they brought it with them!"  (Pick any race / group that is locally a small fraction of the population.)  Maybe a pogrom starts, maybe nobody will show up to be in the middle of an angry mob.

Rumors that sound reasonable are flying: fresh fruits & veggies make you strong to shrug it off, take a bath every day (the muddy river doesn't count), it is a vapor in the air so carrying something that smells strongly (spices or perfumes not troglodytes) will break it up, get sick to your stomach to purge it out of you, chugging beer means you won't feel sick, snake oil cures anything so it will cure this too.  One rumor could even be part of the solution.


----------



## ad_hoc

Ontario with the exception of Toronto (and Hamilton) is entering Stage 3 on Friday. That means everything will be open but masks are mandatory inside in most areas and capacity indoors is greatly reduced.

Toronto entered Stage 2 about 2 weeks late so we will likely be entering Stage 3 in 2 weeks if everything is still going well.


----------



## Zardnaar

ad_hoc said:


> Ontario with the exception of Toronto (and Hamilton) is entering Stage 3 on Friday. That means everything will be open but masks are mandatory inside in most areas and capacity indoors is greatly reduced.
> 
> Toronto entered Stage 2 about 2 weeks late so we will likely be entering Stage 3 in 2 weeks if everything is still going well.




How many active cases? Are you allowed to travel between towns?

 Friend in Houston had 2 days to make her mind up with school. She's got the option of homeschooling. Kids 6 so won't miss to much I guess.


----------



## DollarD

Hussar said:


> Well, isn't Tomb of Annihilation based around a plague of sorts?




I do remember a different DnD plague - the Wailing Death. Technically not in an official adventure - it was in Neverwinter Nights 1, I believe. But its part of the Realms canon nevertheless.

They did quarantine the city, if I remember correctly.


----------



## Janx

Zardnaar said:


> How many active cases? Are you allowed to travel between towns?
> 
> Friend in Houston had 2 days to make her mind up with school. She's got the option of homeschooling. Kids 6 so won't miss to much I guess.



where are people not allowed to travel between towns? How do they control that?

I ask that from Houston where people are driving all the time.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

There were a few countries that did it.  Wasn’t England one?


----------



## Zardnaar

Janx said:


> where are people not allowed to travel between towns? How do they control that?
> 
> I ask that from Houston where people are driving all the time.




When we did lockdown long distance travel was heavily discouraged, police were on the roads, some communities blocked the roads.

Outdoor activities (hunting, fishing, swimming, tramping etc) also banned.

 Australia has Quarantined several buildings.


----------



## Istbor

Man. Had to look up Tramping. I had a very different initial thought on that activity.


----------



## Zardnaar

Istbor said:


> Man. Had to look up Tramping. I had a very different initial thought on that activity.




 Sorry hiking for USians.


----------



## ad_hoc

Apparently USA health data will no longer be sent to the CDC. There is fear that the raw data will no longer be public.









						Trump Administration Strips C.D.C. of Control of Coronavirus Data (Published 2020)
					

Hospitals have been ordered to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all patient information to a central database in Washington, raising questions about transparency.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Umbran

That is, unless the hospitals tell the Administration to go fly a kite, and send it to the CDC anyway.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> That is, unless the hospitals tell the Administration to go fly a kite, and send it to the CDC anyway.



Which they obviously should do. We don't need the government altering the numbers (like from Florida) nationwide now.


----------



## Hussar

Just so I have this right.

Trump has now pulled the US out of WHO.  And is now stripping out the CDC.  Do I have this right?


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Hussar said:


> Just so I have this right.
> 
> Trump has now pulled the US out of WHO.  And is now stripping out the CDC.  Do I have this right?



We still have the CDC if I understand correctly, but the White House is undercutting them.


----------



## Zardnaar

One new case today, 27 total. 

Boring stuff.









						How New Zealand could keep eliminating Covid-19 the border for months to come, even as the coronavirus pandemic worsens
					

Modelling shows the risk of an infectious person slipping through the border undetected is very low - likely to happen only once over the next 18 months.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Ryujin

Well you can't have the CDC disseminating RealFacts™ that contradict the administrations TrueFacts™ at a time like this, can you?


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Trump has now pulled the US out of WHO.




Yep.



> And is now stripping out the CDC.  Do I have this right?




He's forbidding hospitals from sending their covid data to the CDC.  It is as yet unclear whether (or how many) hospitals will follow those directives, or even how much legal power exists to enforce this.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Ryujin said:


> Well you can't have the CDC disseminating RealFacts™ that contradict the administrations TrueFacts™ at a time like this, can you?



You can, but only if you inject bleach first. 

This whole situation is a nightmare. It was 25 states yesterday that had rising cases (as in, more new cases than the amount of new cases they had previously) yesterday. That's half of America that is going the wrong direction.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> This whole situation is a nightmare. It was 25 states yesterday that had rising cases (as in, more new cases than the amount of new cases they had previously) yesterday. That's half of America that is going the wrong direction.




Yeah, our seven-day rolling average is up a smidgen from a low back on the 5th.  

I see my fellow citizens are getting tired of wearing masks, and choosing not to, which is starting to irritate me.  I want to go find a good T shirt that says, "Just wear the darn mask, already" or some other similar piece of wisdom in large, friendly letters to wear when I go out for a walk.

Yes, I know that probably means I'll get punched in the face or shot by some numbnut....


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> I see my fellow citizens are getting tired of wearing masks, and choosing not to, which is starting to irritate me. I want to go find a good T shirt that says, "Just wear the darn mask, already" or some other similar piece of wisdom in large, friendly letters to wear when I go out for a walk.



In my town, practically no one is wearing masks. It's really irritating, and more than just that. It's disgusting. I would buy one of those T-shirts if I could find one. 


Umbran said:


> Yes, I know that probably means I'll get punched in the face or shot by some numbnut....



Seems possible, with how people are acting in America right now. There was that security guard shot because they wouldn't let someone in a store without a mask, there was that couple that pointed a gun at peaceful protesters, and other examples.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Since Gov. Abbot made the masking order statewide- about damn time- compliance has skyrocketed.  Still seeing occasional Karen’s & Kens, but fewer people simply eschewing masks.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Since Gov. Abbot made the masking order statewide- about damn time- compliance has skyrocketed.  Still seeing occasional Karen’s & Kens, but fewer people simply eschewing masks.




First Walmart, and now Target and CVS have also gone to "you must wear a mask in this store".  If Walmart actually enforces, that's apt to give everyone an easier time of it in the long run.


----------



## Istbor

Hussar said:


> Just so I have this right.
> 
> Trump has now pulled the US out of WHO.  And is now stripping out the CDC.  Do I have this right?




It is my understanding as well that the task of collecting the data was given to a private company and will then funnel that data to HHS under Azar who would then either determine who needs the data or present it. That part isn't clear. 

I think it is pretty dumb to add additional moving parts to this, especially as the CDC already has the history and experience of collecting and interpreting the data. A lot of fears that there could be an attempt to step away from transparency, as well as the wisdom in giving the data collection task to a commercial entity.


----------



## Deset Gled

Data is already starting to disappear.  In the face of a global pandemic, this sort of information control and cleansing is abhorrent.



			https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/us-coronavirus-data-has-already-disappeared-after-trump-administration-shifted-control-from-cdc-to-hhs.html


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Deset Gled said:


> Data is already starting to disappear.  In the face of a global pandemic, this sort of information control and cleansing is abhorrent.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/us-coronavirus-data-has-already-disappeared-after-trump-administration-shifted-control-from-cdc-to-hhs.html



It's just a matter of time before they report in daily increases of Covid-19 cases as: "VIRUS IS GONE, STOP TESTING FOR IT!"


----------



## Ryujin

AcererakTriple6 said:


> In my town, practically no one is wearing masks. It's really irritating, and more than just that. It's disgusting. I would buy one of those T-shirts if I could find one.
> 
> Seems possible, with how people are acting in America right now. There was that security guard shot because they wouldn't let someone in a store without a mask, there was that couple that pointed a gun at peaceful protesters, and other examples.




Well if you're serious.....









						Wear your damn mask! Mask by Mynameisparrish
					

Millions of unique designs by independent artists. Find your thing.




					www.redbubble.com


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> First Walmart, and now Target and CVS have also gone to "you must wear a mask in this store".  If Walmart actually enforces, that's apt to give everyone an easier time of it in the long run.




Well when you have people who comment about someone in Wal-Mart not wearing a mask and having a gun pulled on them....









						Florida man who pulled gun on Walmart shopper in mask row identified
					

The Palm Beach County Sheriff's Office says it has questioned a man seen getting into an argument at a Royal Palm Beach store.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Ryujin said:


> Well if you're serious.....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wear your damn mask! Mask by Mynameisparrish
> 
> 
> Millions of unique designs by independent artists. Find your thing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.redbubble.com



Thanks for the link.


----------



## Deset Gled

Ryujin said:


> Well if you're serious.....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wear your damn mask! Mask by Mynameisparrish
> 
> 
> Millions of unique designs by independent artists. Find your thing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.redbubble.com




Lyrics are NSFW (or ENWorld friendly):



Spoiler







Edit - Sorry, forgot it shows inline now, added spoiler tag.


----------



## Istbor

Deset Gled said:


> Lyrics are NSFW (or ENWorld friendly):
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Edit - Sorry, forgot it shows inline now, added spoiler tag.



Awww. I was kind of hoping when he put on the mask he would like... intentionally muffle the lyrics for like a verse or two.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Since Gov. Abbot made the masking order statewide- about damn time- compliance has skyrocketed.  Still seeing occasional Karen’s & Kens, but fewer people simply eschewing masks.



..,and just as I say this, I had to run errands in a neighboring suburb, and saw a LOT more “scarf”laws- groups wandering 50/50 with masks; people wearing theirs like chinstraps or neck warmers, etc.

_sigh_


----------



## Hussar

Are stores in the States and Canada doing this?







Seems to help.


----------



## Ryujin

In Canada, in the area around Toronto, they've mostly erected hard plexiglass shields in front of the cashiers. All the places that I've been to, since the lockdown started are either recommending or mandating the use of debit cards for payment, rather than accepting cash.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> In Canada, in the area around Toronto, they've mostly erected hard plexiglass shields in front of the cashiers. All the places that I've been to, since the lockdown started are either recommending or mandating the use of debit cards for payment, rather than accepting cash.




 That's what they did here and you had to use contact free debit cards.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> It is my understanding as well that the task of collecting the data was given to a private company ...




If I recall correctly, that private company is named.. Palantir.

Yes.  A big data company is named after a device that sounds like it is great for seeing things... but actually has the Eye of the Dark Lord at the other end.  The irony... is so gorram thick...


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Are stores in the States and Canada doing this?




I don't go to too many stores these days, but yes.  CVS, Walgreens, groceries, hardware stores - all have shields between customer and cashier - usually plexiglass.  There's also often some shelving or the like in front of the counter, forcing the customer to stand back a bit.


----------



## Eltab

I see many stores with hard plexiglass between the cashier and the customer.  
In some cases it looks like a bank / gas station anti-theft barriers, in others it looks like it was placed to muffle conversation. 
That photo was the first time I've seen flexible plastic sheeting put up.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> That photo was the first time I've seen flexible plastic sheeting put up.




I've seen such a couple of times.  As you might imagine, there was a bit of a run on the plastics typically used like this, and many suppliers ran out for a while, so stores sometimes had to make do with what they could get.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’ve only seen hard plastic shielding so far.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> If I recall correctly, that private company is named.. Palantir.
> 
> Yes.  A big data company is named after a device that sounds like it is great for seeing things... but actually has the Eye of the Dark Lord at the other end.  The irony... is so gorram thick...



In other leadership news, I’m REALLY looking forward to the outcome of the lawsuit  bet Atlanta’s mayor and Gov. Kemp over mask mandates.  Not just who wins, but WHY will matter.


----------



## Hussar

Eltab said:


> I see many stores with hard plexiglass between the cashier and the customer.
> In some cases it looks like a bank / gas station anti-theft barriers, in others it looks like it was placed to muffle conversation.
> That photo was the first time I've seen flexible plastic sheeting put up.




Yeah, here it's almost all clear plastic sheeting.  Price I imagine being the main factor.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

More games are being played in Georgia.  They’re changing the number ranges assigned to the colors used on their Covid map:


----------



## Zardnaar

Feels bad just at favorite restaurant everything's open no restrictions.

Had 3 craft beers and bother in law bought me this huge cocktail.  IPA, tequila, lime bittter drink but would have again.

 Busy they apparently almost sold out of chicken last night. Crazy busy.  Birthday dinner with family.

1 new case of Covid cf USA 76000.  

Cocktails kicking in hard.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Knock one back for us!


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Knock one back for us!




More than one lol. Home now though.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> More games are being played in Georgia.  They’re changing the number ranges assigned to the colors used on their Covid map:




Must have taken the course "How to Lie in Statistics: 101."


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Must have taken the course "How to Lie in Statistics: 101."




Yeah.

We are, unfortunately, dealing with folks who only understand problems as part of a political process.  They are up against physical processes here.  Misrepresenting the data may make them feel like the voters will be happy with them, but they just don't grok that the people are gong to die, regardless.  The voters are going to note when their friends and family die, no matter their charts.  They can control public opinion for a while, but the reality will catch up with them on this matter.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Yeah.
> 
> We are, unfortunately, dealing with folks who only understand problems as part of a political process.  They are up against physical processes here.  Misrepresenting the data may make them feel like the voters will be happy with them, but they just don't grok that the people are gong to die, regardless.  The voters are going to note when their friends and family die, no matter their charts.  They can control public opinion for a while, but the reality will catch up with them on this matter.




I would replace the word "know" with the word "care", in order to make that statement correct. For such people it's power, that's the only thing that they care about. Some try to sell it to themselves as, "If I don't get elected then I can't do all of the good that i need to do", however, it always seems to devolve unto the quest for that power, rather than the ideal of how it gets used.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> I would replace the word "know" with the word "care"




Given that I didn't use the word "know"... 



> For such people it's power, that's the only thing that they care about.




So, their underlying motivation isn't really material to my point.  What they care about doesn't matter - they will lose it regardless if they ignore the physical processes going on around them.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Given that I didn't use the word "know"...




Translated from the "grok"


----------



## MarkB

Theo R Cwithin said:


> _(So since this is technically also a D&D thread....)_
> 
> Is anyone finding that groups are shying away from "plague" as a theme in games they're playing or otherwise aware of?
> 
> I have no input on the matter, as I'm not actively playing. I'm just curious about others' experiences.



I haven't seen any such games put forward in the latest round of games at our local club (all still being played online).

There was a weekly Let's Play RPG show set in a post-apocalyptic world which I'd been enjoying watching on Twitch, right up to the point where they introduced fighting a serious plague as a major plot-point a couple of months ago. I stopped watching after about an episode of that, and haven't caught up with it since.


----------



## NotAYakk

Ryujin said:


> Must have taken the course "How to Lie in Statistics: 101."



Incompetence is also a possibility.

You make a graph and you assign highest values to red, you'd get the same effect.

Of course, this is really really bad incompetence.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Translated from the "grok"




Ah, I see.  Well, then my point does actually stand.  Because "grok" is not just "know".  It is, "understand _in fullness_".  

Because grokking this is fullness is recognizing the impact of hundreds of thousands of deaths on their own prospects, which are not looking so hot right now.


----------



## Umbran

Want some good news?  Here's some for you.  Hopeful news, at least:

New published research from Renssalaer Ploytech Institute suggests we might, just might, have an effective treatment for Covid-19.  Covid-19 has a "protein spike" that it uses to bind to human cells to infect them.  New study _in vitro_ shows that we already have a drug that binds to that protein spike several orders of magnitude more strongly than human cells do.  This drug is common, safe, cheap-like-water, already mass-produced, well-understood (known mechanisms, minimal and well-known side effects and dosing), and already approved by the FDA for its normal use:  Heparin.

Next step would be to study in cell culture (I strongly suspect this is already underway).  If it works in cell culture, since it is a very well-understood drug, getting into trials as an off-label use could be very quick.

Common FDA-Approved Drug May Effectively Neutralize Virus That Causes COVID-19


----------



## NotAYakk

Oxford study phase 1 trial results are being published.

They are doing phase 2 and phase 3 in parallel.  Phase 1 is "cherry picked humans, testing for negative side effects".  Phase 2 is "demographically representative humans, testing for negative side effects".  Phase 3 is "50 50 placebo vaccine, see if more placebo people get infected".

They are UK based, and UK victory over Covid 19 is slowing them a bit; they are extending the Phase 3 trial to a few hot spots (India, USA).

...

Also, common immunosuppressent drug reducing serious cases (needing vents) by by 79%.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

It's so nice to hear _good_ news now and then!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Also, aforementioned Llama/Alpaca/Camel blood derived therapies also still showing promise!





						COVID-19: Llama-based antibody treatment 'neutralises' virus | BBC Science Focus Magazine
					

Researchers hope the antibodies could eventually be developed as a treatment for patients with severe COVID-19.



					www.sciencefocus.com


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Ah, I see.  Well, then my point does actually stand.  Because "grok" is not just "know".  It is, "understand _in fullness_".
> 
> Because grokking this is fullness is recognizing the impact of hundreds of thousands of deaths on their own prospects, which are not looking so hot right now.




Honestly I don't see the difference, except when it comes to quibbling.


----------



## NotAYakk

I know g_64 is big.  I do not grok how big it is.

I know how to bake cookies.  I do not grok baking cookies.

I know covid 19 risks millions of deaths.  I do not grok what that means.  The scale is just too big.


----------



## Ryujin

NotAYakk said:


> I know g_64 is big.  I do not grok how big it is.
> 
> I know how to bake cookies.  I do not grok baking cookies.
> 
> I know covid 19 risks millions of deaths.  I do not grok what that means.  The scale is just too big.




Sounds like you could substitute "know" into any one of those.


----------



## Retreater

Well, our governor just banned small, outdoor gatherings (larger than 10 people). So that is the second time this year that my wedding got cancelled. We can't even get our immediate families together with 10 people. 
Sorry if this doesn't apply to the conversation here. I'm just feeling really down and had to vent a bit.


----------



## Deset Gled

NotAYakk said:


> Incompetence is also a possibility.
> 
> You make a graph and you assign highest values to red, you'd get the same effect.
> 
> Of course, this is really really bad incompetence.




Normally, I agree that one should never assume malice when incompetence is a possibility.  However, a simple remapping of the colors is not the case here.  Take a look at the ranges and percentages of that graph by color:


Map 1Map 2% Section% Inclusive% Section% Inclusive0​620​13.30%​100.00%​0​949​18.37%​100.00%​621​1070​9.63%​86.68%​950​1555​11.71%​81.61%​1071​1622​11.82%​77.02%​1556​2336​15.10%​69.87%​1623​2960​28.68%​65.18%​2337​3768​27.71%​54.75%​2961​4661​36.47%​36.47%​3769​5165​27.03%​27.03%​

That's not any type of standard normalization or coloring algorithm.   It's simply not mathematically possible.  Manual manipulation for the express purpose of making the maps look the same is literally the only explanation possible for those changes.


----------



## Deset Gled

Retreater said:


> Well, our governor just banned small, outdoor gatherings (larger than 10 people). So that is the second time this year that my wedding got cancelled. We can't even get our immediate families together with 10 people.
> Sorry if this doesn't apply to the conversation here. I'm just feeling really down and had to vent a bit.




This thread is exactly the place for this.

Have you thought about doing a JotP ceremony for now, and just scheduling the party part for later?


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Sounds like you could substitute "know" into any one of those.




You could, but you'd be losing a great deal of connotation.  That is inevitable when you translate from Martian, after all...


----------



## Umbran

Retreater said:


> Sorry if this doesn't apply to the conversation here. I'm just feeling really down and had to vent a bit.




Perfectly acceptable, and you have my sympathies.  

One of my wife's closes friends had to change their wedding plans, and opted for a highly distributed gathering on Zoom instead of waiting.  It was actually far more charming than I would have thought.


----------



## Retreater

Deset Gled said:


> This thread is exactly the place for this.
> 
> Have you thought about doing a JotP ceremony for now, and just scheduling the party part for later?



The plan for two weeks from now was that: just JotP and immediate family and everyone else watching online. But to do it without my parents, brother, sister, and the bride's family just feels wrong. We can't even have our immediate family. 
And what is a wedding if not a communal event. It's my parents accepting us as a couple. Her dad accepting me as a son.


----------



## Hussar

Retreater said:


> The plan for two weeks from now was that: just JotP and immediate family and everyone else watching online. But to do it without my parents, brother, sister, and the bride's family just feels wrong. We can't even have our immediate family.
> And what is a wedding if not a communal event. It's my parents accepting us as a couple. Her dad accepting me as a son.




Aw Retreater. That blows.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Retreater said:


> The plan for two weeks from now was that: just JotP and immediate family and everyone else watching online. But to do it without my parents, brother, sister, and the bride's family just feels wrong. We can't even have our immediate family.
> And what is a wedding if not a communal event. It's my parents accepting us as a couple. Her dad accepting me as a son.



It’s one thing to CHOOSE to do an elopement or Elvis-officiated webcast wedding in Vegas- both done by people I know- but having your preferences denied by circumstances beyond your control really blows.  No easy answers.

The only thing I can think of is something like the military academies and some of our local schools did for graduations.  Book a larger outdoor venue for the wedding and use a PA system of some kind to transmit the sounds to widely spaced tables.

Not ideal, but maybe?


----------



## Umbran

Retreater said:


> And what is a wedding if not a communal event.




Weddings are _two_ things - one is an event where the couple are recognized as a unit by their community.  The other is a legal binding in the eyes of the law.  In times of uncertainty, you may have use of the latter when you can't get the former - like, for healthcare coverage.


----------



## Istbor

Yeah I was going to say. Not all weddings are the same. Some are pragmatic. Just not as common as today's more romanticized version.

Back on topic. Oof...
We had 1100+ new cases yesterday in Wisconsin. It is really hard to slow it down when only a few counties are actually mandating masks and trying to slow this spread, while the rest of the state is still celebrating ending the 'illegal' lockdown.


----------



## Retreater

Istbor said:


> Yeah I was going to say. Not all weddings are the same. Some are pragmatic. Just not as common as today's more romanticized version.
> 
> Back on topic. Oof...
> We had 1100+ new cases yesterday in Wisconsin. It is really hard to slow it down when only a few counties are actually mandating masks and trying to slow this spread, while the rest of the state is still celebrating ending the 'illegal' lockdown.



Yeah. There's very little unity in America. It's sad that we can't come together during a time of crisis.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Retreater said:


> Yeah. There's very little unity in America. It's sad that we can't come together during a time of crisis.



It's especially sad that we seem more divided now than ever before in my life time, and this is the one time we need to be united.


----------



## NotAYakk

Numbers are starting to climb in Ottawa, Canada.  Diagnosed 30-40 per day in a metro area of 1.3 million or so, significantly up from the single-digits it was down to.

Many of the new infections are from people breaking "stage 2" rules and having indoor parties.  We have since moved to "stage 3", which permits bars to reopen.

Not a good trajectory right before school starts.

It feels weird to complain about 30 cases/day.  But on a log scale that is -4.6 per capita, up from -5.2.

Florida on the log scale is -3.3 per capita.  Texas etc is similar.

(An exponential growth curve moves up a log scale at a relatively constant rate, so when dealing with pandemics it can illuminate differences better.)


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> Numbers are starting to climb in Ottawa, Canada.  Diagnosed 30-40 per day in a metro area of 1.5 million or so, significantly up from the single-digits it was down to.
> 
> Many of the new infections are from people breaking "stage 2" rules and having indoor parties.  We have since moved to "stage 3", which permits bars to reopen.
> 
> Not a good trajectory right before school starts.




 Seems obvious management vs elimination doesn't work. 

4 weeks ago Australia was similar to NZ now they're getting 400+ cases a day and there's fear it's spread outside Victoria.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> Seems obvious management vs elimination doesn't work.
> 
> 4 weeks ago Australia was similar to NZ now they're getting 400+ cases a day and there's fear it's spread outside Victoria.



We where on a path to elimination; down to 5ish cases/day in most regions of the province (the size of most countries).

Rf was about 0.5.  If there are 10 undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed, that means we where at ~50 infections/day and we where spotting ~5 of them (the rest would be asymptomatic or barely symtomatic; a factor of 10 is a safety factor).

At a cycle time of 4ish days, that is like 23 days away from 0 real infections/day.  Elimination.

As Rf goes up, so does the number of cycles (pretty fast) to eliminate.

Maybe the government figured a vaccine was coming shortly, so manual elimination wasn't worth it...  or maybe they just decided it wasn't worth rich people's tax dollars to finish the job.


----------



## Nebulous

Retreater said:


> Yeah. There's very little unity in America. It's sad that we can't come together during a time of crisis.



Totally agreed.  And there is rioting in the streets at the same time


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> We where on a path to elimination; down to 5ish cases/day in most regions of the province (the size of most countries).
> 
> Rf was about 0.5.  If there are 10 undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed, that means we where at ~50 infections/day and we where spotting ~5 of them (the rest would be asymptomatic or barely symtomatic; a factor of 10 is a safety factor).
> 
> At a cycle time of 4ish days, that is like 23 days away from 0 real infections/day.  Elimination.
> 
> As Rf goes up, so does the number of cycles (pretty fast) to eliminate.
> 
> Maybe the government figured a vaccine was coming shortly, so manual elimination wasn't worth it...  or maybe they just decided it wasn't worth rich people's tax dollars to finish the job.




A month or so of full lockdown would wipe it out at 5/day. 

 Or bring down so low you can contain it.

 Complacency perhaps. 









						NZ tempts Covid-19 fate by not introducing masks - researchers
					

New Zealand would have seen 990 to 4200 Covid-19 deaths if our losses matched OECD rates, but we're still tempting fate by not introducing masks, experts say.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 No one's wearing masks,I think we have 7 somewhere.


----------



## Umbran

As of August 1st, we have travel restrictions for folks coming into Massachusetts.

If you don't come from a list of low-risk states (at the moment, New England, NY, NJ, and Hawaii) or don't fit a short list of exclusions you need to:

1) File a travel form
2) Either quarantine for 14 days, or submit the results of a negative Covid-19 test.

Fail to do so and you are subject to a fine of $500/day you are not compliant.

No word on the enforcement strategy they intend to use.


----------



## Zardnaar

5 escapes from quarantine. Family thought the rules didn't apply. 

 Boys in blue found them, currently guests of her majesty awaiting charges.









						Five people escape isolation facility in Hamilton
					

A 17-year-old man remains missing after he and four others escaped their isolation hotel in Hamilton tonight.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> As of August 1st, we have travel restrictions for folks coming into Massachusetts.
> 
> If you don't come from a list of low-risk states (at the moment, New England, NY, NJ, and Hawaii) or don't fit a short list of exclusions you need to:
> 
> 1) File a travel form
> 2) Either quarantine for 14 days, or submit the results of a negative Covid-19 test.
> 
> Fail to do so and you are subject to a fine of $500/day you are not compliant.
> 
> No word on the enforcement strategy they intend to use.



I can see where truck drivers and trucking companies are going to be hardest hit.
Followed by whoever is waiting on the cargo carried on those trucks.


----------



## NotAYakk

Eltab said:


> I can see where truck drivers and trucking companies are going to be hardest hit.
> Followed by whoever is waiting on the cargo carried on those trucks.



Get a covid 19 test and keep on trucking.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

NotAYakk said:


> Get a covid 19 test and keep on trucking.



Yeah. Or hand off the trailer to a local driver.


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> I can see where truck drivers and trucking companies are going to be hardest hit.
> Followed by whoever is waiting on the cargo carried on those trucks.




Should be able to do freight contact free or close to it. 

 When we shut everything down truckies still kept going. Some rules just got suspended.


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> As of August 1st, we have travel restrictions for folks coming into Massachusetts., or submit the results of a negative Covid-19 test.
> ...
> No word on the enforcement strategy they intend to use.




This sounds like it probably wouldn't hold up in court. Anything that puts controls on interstate trade is only supposed to happen at the federal level.


----------



## Zardnaar

Our director general of health equivalent to Fauci I suppose. 









						Dr Ashley Bloomfield helps his Centurions XV team win the parliamentary rugby match
					

The director-general of health scored a try in the first half, playing as a flanker for the Centurions XV at Wainuiomata.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 He's a bit popular.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> I can see where truck drivers and trucking companies are going to be hardest hit.




Most of them are likely covered by "workers providing critical infrastructure services" exception (if, for example, they are hauling groceries or other needed stuff), or the "transitory travel exemption" (if they are passing through the state to get somewhere else).


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> This sounds like it probably wouldn't hold up in court.




Did you actually find and read the order? 

If not... take your judgement off to Supposition Canyon, and dump it in the gorge.  It isn't worth the electrons you used to type it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Or, to clarify Umbran’s response, there’s SCOTUS precedent upholding the broad powers of Governors to act in pandemics and even lesser health crises dating back over 100 years.  Border closures and other travel restrictions, quarantines, masking orders, etc. are all within state government powers, assuming those states did not restrict themselves with their own constitutions or other legislation.

See _Compagnie Francaise de Navigation a Vapeur v. Board of Health of State of Louisiana_, _Jacobson v. Massachusetts, Zemel v. Rusk _and others, discussed here:









						Can Governors Close Their Borders to Pandemic Risks?
					

During pandemics, states have well-recognized authority to limit travel within and across their borders.




					www.justsecurity.org


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

It still perplexes me (though, tbh, it doesn't _surprise_ me) that, this many months into the pandemic, the US still doesn't have a top-level clearinghouse of travel information on states' restrictions, dates, form requirements, etc. It would be helpful if some federal agency  was tracking and collating all this stuff as it is released, retracted, extended, expired-- perhaps something like the State Dept's travel advisory pages. 
Bonus XP if this data is offered in an easy-to-use interactive or map format.

And if someone is aware of such a database, could you please point me to it?


----------



## Hussar

I believe the summary of the travel restrictions is:

Stay the #)$) at home.


----------



## Theo R Cwithin

nvm


----------



## Hussar

Jeez, I did mean that as a joke.  I hope he didn't quit the boards because of that.  If so, I'm really sorry.  Just trying to inject a little levity into the conversation.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Jeez, I did mean that as a joke.  I hope he didn't quit the boards because of that.  If so, I'm really sorry.  Just trying to inject a little levity into the conversation.




 Wouldn't worry about it.

Best Korea I mean North Korea reports first case. 









						North Korea on alert over 'first suspected coronavirus case'
					

State media say a defector who returned from South Korea has Covid-19 symptoms.



					www.bbc.com
				




 Leaves Turkmenistan as the last country with more than a million as "virus free".


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> If not... take your judgement off to Supposition Canyon, and dump it in the gorge.  It isn't worth the electrons you used to type it.




Well, that's just rude and completely uncalled for.  There's 0% chance of a reasonable discussion on the topic now.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> Well, that's just rude and completely uncalled for.  There's 0% chance of a reasonable discussion on the topic now.




If an opinion on legality was formed _without reference to the order in question_, we weren't starting with a discussion based on reason.  

Opinions in conflict with reality are largely the reason we are in our current predicament, so I'm rather fed up with them.


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> If an opinion on legality was formed _without reference to the order in question_, we weren't starting with a discussion based on reason.
> 
> Opinions in conflict with reality are largely the reason we are in our current predicament, so I'm rather fed up with them.




Conflating this with conspiracies and refusing to wear masks as a political point is a bit extreme.

I agree with your position about the order. It's just a little far to compare not understanding how state orders work and arguing against the world's doctors after they have had an extensive information campaign to tell people what to do.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> Conflating this with conspiracies and refusing to wear masks as a political point is a bit extreme.




Interestingly, I didn't mention either of those things, so... not really persuasive.

We aren't talking about Damage on a Miss, or some other frivolity.  This is a thing that impacts thousands of lives - indeed, perhaps thousands of _deaths_.  Coming to an opinion without even reading the order is not what I'd call reasonable or responsible.

Coming up on a hundred fifty thousand dead in the US.  That's not extreme enough for you?  How many more dead will it need to be to justify stridency in your eyes?  200K?  Half a million?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

While I understand their concerns of liability and employee safety, I am sorely disappointed that these businesses are taking a non-enforcement approach to masking orders.  Personally, I’d be hiring more security personnel.  (I understand bar bouncers are looking for work...)



			https://www.yahoo.com/walmart-wont-enforce-own-rules-155704382.html


----------



## ad_hoc

Umbran said:


> Interestingly, I didn't mention either of those things, so... not really persuasive.
> 
> We aren't talking about Damage on a Miss, or some other frivolity.  This is a thing that impacts thousands of lives - indeed, perhaps thousands of _deaths_.  Coming to an opinion without even reading the order is not what I'd call reasonable or responsible.
> 
> Coming up on a hundred fifty thousand dead in the US.  That's not extreme enough for you?  How many more dead will it need to be to justify stridency in your eyes?  200K?  Half a million?




I think you're tilting at windmills here.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> I think you're tilting at windmills here.




In the musical, the people pointing out that Quixote is mad... do not turn out to be the heroes of the piece, you know.


----------



## Zardnaar

87 days since we've found community transmission.









						Covid-19: Zero new cases in New Zealand today
					

There are no new cases of Covid-19 in the country today.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




0 cases today, 21 total all in quarantine/isolation. None in hospital.


----------



## Imaculata

A friend of mine was diagnosed with Corona last week. She is in self quarantine right now. She can't see her kid, and the virus drains her of all her energy. It is very unpleasant. She got it from a colleague at work, so now all her co workers need to be in quarantine for at least 2 weeks.

Meanwhile in Belgium cases are again on the rise, and I fear it is only a matter of time before the same thing happens in the Netherlands. The Dutch government is looking into the option of perhaps making masks mandatory; on the street and inside any store. Currently masks are only required in public transport.


----------



## Hussar

Yeah, Japan's in slow burn too.  It's nerve wracking to be honest.  

On the plus side, got me some new half shield masks for classes, which do make pronunciation drills a lot better.  But, still no word on my university classes as to whether we'll be live or online after mid term.


----------



## Zardnaar

Family friends uncle died in Australia. Sister in law was close to him.


----------



## Not a Hobbit

nvm


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

In relatively good news, the Sinclair media group has at least delayed its plan for airing “Plandemic” on its subsidiary stations after significant pushback was received on its social media accounts.









						Sinclair pulls discredited 'Plandemic' researcher's Fauci conspiracy theory from local stations
					

The Sinclair Broadcast Group said Saturday it will postpone and rework a segment it planned to air this weekend that suggested Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, was responsible for the creation of the coronavirus.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

It didn’t take a crystal ball to see this coming.








						The Marlins' COVID-19 outbreak is really bad, and exactly what MLB signed up for
					

The COVID-19 outbreak sidelining the Marlins and creating chaos in baseball is exactly what MLB and the country as a whole signed up for.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In relatively good news, the Sinclair media group has at least delayed its plan for airing “Plandemic” on its subsidiary stations after significant pushback was received on its social media accounts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sinclair pulls discredited 'Plandemic' researcher's Fauci conspiracy theory from local stations
> 
> 
> The Sinclair Broadcast Group said Saturday it will postpone and rework a segment it planned to air this weekend that suggested Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, was responsible for the creation of the coronavirus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com



I wouldn't group that is good news, as much as it is "not bad news".

Maybe that's because I'm a glass empty kind of person, but I generally don't see people failing to do bad things as good.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It didn’t take a crystal ball to see this coming.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Marlins' COVID-19 outbreak is really bad, and exactly what MLB signed up for
> 
> 
> The COVID-19 outbreak sidelining the Marlins and creating chaos in baseball is exactly what MLB and the country as a whole signed up for.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




And why the Toronto Blue Jays are now playing in Buffalo, not Toronto.


----------



## Deset Gled

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I wouldn't group that in good news, as much as it is "not bad news".
> 
> Maybe that's because I'm a glass empty kind of person, but I generally don't see people failing to do bad things as good.




It's like when a James Bond villain (which, IMNSHO, Sinclair totally is) refuses to shoot a dog.  It's not going to make me feel bad for them or change sides, but sometimes it's nice to know that evil has a rock bottom.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> It's like when a James Bond villain (which, IMNSHO, Sinclair totally is) refuses to shoot a dog.  It's not going to make me feel bad for them or change sides, but sometimes it's nice to know that evil has a rock bottom.



Of course, they haven’t chosen to rule out the possibility of airing it in the future, soooo...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ryujin said:


> And why the Toronto Blue Jays are now playing in Buffalo, not Toronto.



Several of the pro sports leagues are doing this kind of thing- they’re sequestering the teams in limited numbers of places so they can control exposure to C19 while letting the athletes play games for money AND our entertainment.

Except, of course, they’re not actually quarantined, only slightly sequestered.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Several of the pro sports leagues are doing this kind of thing- they’re sequestering the teams in limited numbers of places so they can control exposure to C19 while letting the athletes play games for money AND our entertainment.
> 
> Except, of course, they’re not actually quarantined, only slightly sequestered.




The NHL is doing this, in two cities with a great deal of separation and actual security, to keep people from coming and going. The latter is what the Blue Jays lacked in their planning.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Deset Gled said:


> It's like when a James Bond villain (which, IMNSHO, Sinclair totally is) refuses to shoot a dog.  It's not going to make me feel bad for them or change sides, but sometimes it's nice to know that evil has a rock bottom.



Exactly. You don't get an award for not murdering someone. You get an award for stopping a murder, or something that benefits society.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Stupid.
Stupid.
Stupid.








						Chainsmokers Drive-in Hamptons Charity Concert Prompts Investigation
					

The Chainsmokers held a charity fundraiser in the Hamptons at a drive-in Saturday night ... and even with all the precautions, it still looked a little dicey.




					www.tmz.com


----------



## Ryujin

We were (hopefully) going to Stage 3 at the end of this week. Unfortunately things like this keep happening, spiking the infection rate, and putting it off. It doesn't take many people to screw up a whole area. Officials are reporting that the party involved up to *200* people and possible fines are in excess of $100K.


----------



## ad_hoc

Ryujin said:


> We were (hopefully) going to Stage 3 at the end of this week. Unfortunately things like this keep happening, spiking the infection rate, and putting it off. It doesn't take many people to screw up a whole area. Officials are reporting that the party involved up to *200* people and possible fines are in excess of $100K.




That is awful and makes me angry.

However, are you sure the infection rate has spiked?

There are still only 1550 active cases in Ontario. That is up from a week ago but is that a spike? More importantly there are only 509 active cases in Toronto which is actually down from a week ago. 

I think the spike is mostly in the Windsor-Essex area.


----------



## Ryujin

ad_hoc said:


> That is awful and makes me angry.
> 
> However, are you sure the infection rate has spiked?
> 
> There are still only 1550 active cases in Ontario. That is up from a week ago but is that a spike? More importantly there are only 509 active cases in Toronto which is actually down from a week ago.
> 
> I think the spike is mostly in the Windsor-Essex area.




No spike with this one yet, but we won't know about that for 2 weeks anyway. Past incidents are what I was talking about. Even then I shouldn't really have referred to a spike because our local infection rates are just staying higher than they should. People here, in Brampton, can't seem to wrap their heads around the fact that if they don't behave in a reasonable manner, we're just going to keep getting stuck at Stage 2. 

At this point I'm only leaving the house once, maybe twice a week if I need to do a stint at my job in Downtown T.O. and being fastidious about mask wearing, and hand washing/sanitizing. After having pneumonia 5 times in my life, my lungs are basically scar tissue, so I'm not taking any unnecessary chances.


----------



## ad_hoc

ad_hoc said:


> That is awful and makes me angry.
> 
> However, are you sure the infection rate has spiked?
> 
> There are still only 1550 active cases in Ontario. That is up from a week ago but is that a spike? More importantly there are only 509 active cases in Toronto which is actually down from a week ago.
> 
> I think the spike is mostly in the Windsor-Essex area.




For sure, the pandemic is very much not over and is even more of a concern for people in vulnerable populations. People are also only looking at the death rate and not the very large incidence of permanent damage to lungs, cardiovascular system, brain, etc.

I have been going out again. The TTC has mandatory masks which is nice. I went to the Islands on Sunday. Mandatory masks that are enforced on the ferry.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Researchers have broken down C19’s most common early symptoms into 6 clusters, and now believe there is a strong correlation between the 4th, 5th and 6th clusters and a heightened probability of developing more severe symptoms.  If true, this will improve patient triage and monitoring by letting doctors know who is most at risk before more serious complications manifest.








						New study identifies 6 'clusters' of COVID-19 symptoms, could help 'predict' severe cases
					

A new study found that COVID-19 symptoms come in six different “clusters,” which may help predict which patients are more at risk and in need of respiratory support.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## ad_hoc




----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yep.  Not surprising, but still disappointing.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yep.  Not surprising, but still disappointing.



This is the summary of 2020.


----------



## Retreater

Look, the White House magically plateaued all infections. /sarcasm


----------



## Zardnaar

Had a break last week.3 groups this week got a bit noisy.





No Covid or restrictions. 

7 weeks post lockdown, 90 days of no community spread.

  1case in quarantine today iirc.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Keep leading by example.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Keep leading by example.




 Late night in Texas?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Always, for me.  Not much of a sleeper- never have been.

My parents tell me that they were overjoyed to tell my pediatrician that they had finally gotten me sleeping through the night, a full 8 hours.  Shocked, my pediatrician replied that babies were supposed to be sleeping 20 hours a day...


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Always, for me.  Not much of a sleeper- never have been.
> 
> My parents tell me that they were overjoyed to tell my pediatrician that they had finally gotten me sleeping through the night, a full 8 hours.  Shocked, my pediatrician replied that babies were supposed to be sleeping 20 hours a day...



Ha, same. I don't sleep as much as a normal person, even from when I was a baby. 

Coronavirus cases in my county haven't gone down, but we are still opening up. It sucks.


----------



## Retreater

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Ha, same. I don't sleep as much as a normal person, even from when I was a baby.
> 
> Coronavirus cases in my county haven't gone down, but we are still opening up. It sucks.



Mine is going up. Into dangerous levels. Everything is opening up. People don't care at all. My boss laughs at the mandates and thinks this is all hokum science, so she's pressuring us to reopen faster than the guidelines and best practices in our field. Fiancée and I are stuck in the middle of it with no options besides quitting our careers.


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> No Covid or restrictions.
> 
> 7 weeks post lockdown, 90 days of no community spread.
> 
> 1case in quarantine today iirc.




Can I come seek asylum?  There's way too many stupid people all around me here.
Stick me in quarantine for a month.  Just give me a stack of D&D books, feed me, and I promise I won't jump any fences or anything.


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> Can I come seek asylum?  There's way too many stupid people all around me here.
> Stick me in quarantine for a month.  Just give me a stack of D&D books, feed me, and I promise I won't jump any fences or anything.




 Sure. We're going to quarantine you here though. It's kinda like the TV show Survivor. Just a bit colder. 

 It's Auckland (sorta). 









						Auckland Islands - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Sure. We're going to quarantine you here though. It's kinda like the TV show Survivor. Just a bit colder.
> 
> It's Auckland (sorta).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Auckland Islands - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org




Hmm, let me think about that for a moment.
Required to quarantine in a place where people are healthy but I'll need to pack a coat,
VS
Largely self-quarantined in a country full of stupid sick people acting dumber each day.....
(Seriously, it's like we've lost our damned minds over here.)


----------



## JEB

ad_hoc said:


> View attachment 124248




Can you link me to where you got that from? Want to share but know it'll be shot down without a source.


----------



## ad_hoc

JEB said:


> Can you link me to where you got that from? Want to share but know it'll be shot down without a source.




I got it from the internet but you can do it yourself by going here:









						United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




There is a graph half way down the page with daily case counts. Sources for those counts are provided.


----------



## Umbran

ad_hoc said:


> I got it from the internet....




I'm pretty sure everyone figured as much.


----------



## GreyLord

ccs said:


> Hmm, let me think about that for a moment.
> Required to quarantine in a place where people are healthy but I'll need to pack a coat,
> VS
> Largely self-quarantined in a country full of stupid sick people acting dumber each day.....
> (Seriously, it's like we've lost our damned minds over here.)




Yes, sometimes it feels as if I'm a stranger living in a crazy world where people don't even have the same view life and science as I do.

Even in our RPG group we have one individual that sometimes goes on rants at us.  The rest of us keep the peace (so, there's at least 4 others who seem to think like I do, vs. the one who rants at us) so we can just keep gaming, but that one individual doesn't seem to share the same views as we do (they want to meet up in person again rather than meeting electronically...which, while it would be nice, is not really keeping in the idea of safety in today's pandemic environment).

I just wish we'd get a vaccine or something soon so that at least I could get vaccinated against this thing and have a little less worry about all those who want to go infect me that are carrying on around me without masks in the stores and throwing tantrums about those of us trying to stay at home and stay safe.

I have a kid at home and it seems our school district (regardless of the fact that we have record numbers of rising cases in our area now) is going full steam ahead with full time school starting up in less than a month.  At this point I think it's almost guaranteed I'm going to get it because no one really cares about the science or anything else about it in our area.

I feel trapped and given no options.  They have to go to school (or we could get jailed for keeping them home), and the school districts don't want to listen to science (which is odd, considering that they are supposed to be educated).  People talk about freedom, but I feel distinctly that my freedom to choose is not available at this point in time.  I actually feel trapped into a situation because of the actions of those around me.

I've tried to do my part (as I said, still meeting electronically with the gaming groups I'm meeting with.  Used to do a group at the local library for kids and any other who wanted to join, but we stopped that months ago, now go out to the store and stay home for the most part, and even that isn't enough for these people who want to make sure I get this disease!).  I really feel trapped...and I'm not a rogue so no idea how to remove it.


----------



## Istbor

To ease some tension. I did by the Mystic Odyssey of Theros yesterday. The extra special cover no less with the sexy Hydra. So nice. 

Didn't have time to properly crack it open yet though.


----------



## ccs

GreyLord said:


> Yes, sometimes it feels as if I'm a stranger living in a crazy world where people don't even have the same view life and science as I do.
> 
> Even in our RPG group we have one individual that sometimes goes on rants at us.  The rest of us keep the peace (so, there's at least 4 others who seem to think like I do, vs. the one who rants at us) so we can just keep gaming, but that one individual doesn't seem to share the same views as we do (they want to meet up in person again rather than meeting electronically...which, while it would be nice, is not really keeping in the idea of safety in today's pandemic environment).
> 
> I just wish we'd get a vaccine or something soon so that at least I could get vaccinated against this thing and have a little less worry about all those who want to go infect me that are carrying on around me without masks in the stores and throwing tantrums about those of us trying to stay at home and stay safe.
> 
> I have a kid at home and it seems our school district (regardless of the fact that we have record numbers of rising cases in our area now) is going full steam ahead with full time school starting up in less than a month.  At this point I think it's almost guaranteed I'm going to get it because no one really cares about the science or anything else about it in our area.
> 
> I feel trapped and given no options.  They have to go to school (or we could get jailed for keeping them home), and the school districts don't want to listen to science (which is odd, considering that they are supposed to be educated).  People talk about freedom, but I feel distinctly that my freedom to choose is not available at this point in time.  I actually feel trapped into a situation because of the actions of those around me.
> 
> I've tried to do my part (as I said, still meeting electronically with the gaming groups I'm meeting with.  Used to do a group at the local library for kids and any other who wanted to join, but we stopped that months ago, now go out to the store and stay home for the most part, and even that isn't enough for these people who want to make sure I get this disease!).  I really feel trapped...and I'm not a rogue so no idea how to remove it.




How do you feel about a trip to NZ?


----------



## Hussar

Yeah, I can truly understand the frustration.  It absolutely baffles me how wearing a mask became a politicized issue, but, here we are.


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> How do you feel about a trip to NZ?




Borders are basically clisedto non residents/citizens;.

Went into town today. Busy as crap. Saw one mask which was weird. Theros wasn't in yet at gamestore so had some Mexican, Arabic and a pilsner.

With Covid the made the buses free. No contact for payment and they're free until September 1st.

Weird seeing a mask. Gonna stop procrastinating though and get a heap of things done such as doctors visits etc as I'm expecting something to go wrong.

Just passed 3 months of no community spread. Schools have been open for around two months. I think lockdown coincided with Easter and a school holiday so that made it easier.

Ran into some old friends at store and player who missed Wednesdays session hence the pilsner and Arabic.

Decisions decisions I'ma Friday afternoon.






 Spend money the government said.  Support small business as my patriotic duty and erm the Aussie wine Industry and Russian beer industry.


----------



## Hussar

Is that kangaroo poop in a box?


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Is that kangaroo poop in a box?




 Falafel. Deep fried spiced chickpeas.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Good stuff, too.   One of the few ways my Mom voluntarily eats chickpeas.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Good stuff, too.   One of the few ways my Mom voluntarily eats chickpeas.




 We found them roasted in an air fryer works well if you add some flavouring.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Someone may have found the solution to America’s pandemic* woes:


* also obesity, if you do what The L.A. Beast did- eat a 5lb bag in 1:12:49.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz




----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Be Smart | How Well Do Masks Work? | Season 8 | Episode 16 | PBS
					

Wearing a mask is a cheap and easy way to help stop the spread of COVID-19.




					www.pbs.org


----------



## Hussar

Jesus Christ @Dannyalcatraz give me a bit of warning before you post that sort of thing.  My morning coffee just about ended up on the wall.  ROTFLMAO.

"I'm a senior citizen with Alzheimers..."


----------



## Zardnaar

92 days no community transmission. Down to 3000 odd tests per day. Two new cases in quarantine. 22 active cases. 


 Boring stuff 








						Covid-19 update: Two new cases reported in New Zealand today
					

There were two new cases of Covid-19 reported in managed isolation today, while the Health Ministry says it has spoken to a woman who tested positive after travelling from NZ to Australia.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> 92 days no community transmission. Down to 3000 odd tests per day. Two new cases in quarantine. 22 active cases.
> 
> 
> Boring stuff
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19 update: Two new cases reported in New Zealand today
> 
> 
> There were two new cases of Covid-19 reported in managed isolation today, while the Health Ministry says it has spoken to a woman who tested positive after travelling from NZ to Australia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz



Thankfully that's all. Too many people have managed to escape quarantine, I'm sure we're all glad that they haven't passed it on to others.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Thankfully that's all. Too many people have managed to escape quarantine, I'm sure we're all glad that they haven't passed it on to others.




 I'ma expecting something to go wrong.

 The people doing runners are a very small %. Less than 1%.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> The people doing runners are a very small %. Less than 1%.



Did you hear him?  RUN, RUNNER!


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Did you hear him?  RUN, RUNNER!
> View attachment 124367




Haven't seen that movie for years. Liked it as a kid. In the 80's.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> I'ma expecting something to go wrong.
> 
> The people doing runners are a very small %. Less than 1%.



True but it doesn't take much to start the spread again.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> True but it doesn't take much to start the spread again.




 Hence why I'm expecting something to go wrong.

If they announced community spread tomorrow wouldn't be surprised. Ring the doctor tomorrow and gonna try to do various things this week in case of lockdown 2.0.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Hence why I'm expecting something to go wrong.
> 
> If they announced community spread tomorrow wouldn't be surprised. Ring the doctor tomorrow and gonna try to do various things this week in case of lockdown 2.0.



Seems a good idea. 

I think last I heard they were floating the possibility of regional lockdowns, not sure how they'd be able to police that exactly. I also live in Auckland, if any region is gonna be affected in pretty sure it would be here and I really don't want to have to go full on lockdown again.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Seems a good idea.
> 
> I think last I heard they were floating the possibility of regional lockdowns, not sure how they'd be able to police that exactly. I also live in Auckland, if any region is gonna be affected in pretty sure it would be here and I really don't want to have to go full on lockdown again.




Dunedin here. Not really worried about a regional outbreak.

One would think if we had asymptomatic spread would have noticed in last 3 months.

Germany








						Coronavirus: Thousands protest in Berlin against Covid-19 restrictions
					

Massive rally comes as authorities voice increasing concerns about spike in new infections.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




NZ










						Super Rugby: Woman trespassed from Waikato Stadium after latest streaker incident
					

Alarming run of Super Rugby streakers continues with female pitch invader in Hamilton.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 No Covid. Or clothes.


----------



## Hussar

Read that article about the streakers.  That poor bastard in the last story.  Oh man, getting tackled by a rugby player until security comes.  That's gotta hurt.  Be like getting hit by a train.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Read that article about the streakers.  That poor bastard in the last story.  Oh man, getting tackled by a rugby player until security comes.  That's gotta hurt.  Be like getting hit by a train.




Don't streak then lol.


----------



## Zardnaar

20 people over three groups turned up tonight.

Throw in customers plus other gamers it's to loud. Sore throat, slight headache. World's going to hell in a handbasket but....


----------



## R_J_K75

I cant believe that South Dakota is allowing the Sturgis Bike Rally to go on starting this Friday for 10 days.  People are already showing up and theyre expecting about 500,000 people.


----------



## Istbor

R_J_K75 said:


> I cant believe that South Dakota is allowing the Sturgis Bike Rally to go on starting this Friday for 10 days.  People are already showing up and theyre expecting about 500,000 people.



Ooooo, that's pretty dumb. Surely nothing bad will come of it. Bikers are notorious for following rules and health guidelines.


----------



## R_J_K75

Istbor said:


> Ooooo, that's pretty dumb. Surely nothing bad will come of it. Bikers are notorious for following rules and health guidelines.




Im lost for words actually.  So long, Mad Dog, Spike, & Eye Ball and yet we hardly knew you.


----------



## Eltab

Istbor said:


> Bikers are notorious for following rules and health guidelines.



They are also known for thinking they are tough as nails and able to deal with whatever comes their way.


----------



## ccs

R_J_K75 said:


> I cant believe that South Dakota is allowing the Sturgis Bike Rally to go on starting this Friday for 10 days.  People are already showing up and theyre expecting about 500,000 people.




Maybe its some sort of population control experiment?


----------



## R_J_K75

Eltab said:


> They are also known for thinking they are tough as nails and able to deal with whatever comes their way.




When I was 13 I used to hang out at this party house where everyone else was 20-25.  To this day I still dont know why they let me come around.  People came and went all hours of the day and night, keg parties every night. it was just a place to hang out and drink. The two guys that actually lived there were in this "biker club", the "Comancheros".  Oddly enough no one had a bike or colors and every time it was brought up it was always, "oh my bikes in the shop, Im getting it next week, or it almost done; tomorrow I'm getting it back."   After about two or three months of this I walk into the guys house and their sitting on the couch and I start laughing to myself cause him and his girlfriend are sitting on the couch all bloodied and bruised covered head to toe in road rash.  Well he got his bike back the night before and it only took a few hours before he wrecked it and it was "back in the shop", Alas, the "Comancheros" were no more.  To no ones surprise theyre both in jail til this day, probably in the infirmary with COVID-19.  Bikers are bad umkay!!


----------



## R_J_K75

ccs said:


> Maybe its some sort of population control experiment?




I've thought that all along and when this is all over we'll never know the truth of the matter.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> They are also known for thinking they are tough as nails and able to deal with whatever comes their way.




"I'll survive, and I don't care who else dies," says more that you're sociopathic than that you're tough.


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> Maybe its some sort of population control experiment?




 Vault Tech. USA is the vault.


----------



## R_J_K75

Umbran said:


> "I'll survive, and I don't care who else dies," says more that you're sociopathic than that you're tough.




Think the Altamont Speedway incident proved that.


----------



## Deset Gled

116 students quarantined after cases reported when the Mississippi schools open up.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/06/school-coronavirus-outbreak-mississippi/?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark
		


"“Just because you begin to have positive cases, that is not a reason for closing school,” Superintendent Lee Childress said in a Facebook Live broadcast on Tuesday on the school district’s Facebook page. "

*YES IT IS!  *What the heck wrong with you?


----------



## Istbor

R_J_K75 said:


> Think the Altamont Speedway incident proved that.




There were a few problems there. Least of which was having a biker gang be security.

Edit: Had to edit and add that, that is incredible Deset. I mean... when else are you suppose to close at premise schooling? When all your teachers and their subs are too sick or are quarantined? Just wow.

I mean... “We’ve had a good start of school,” Childress said. “We’re going to have some more positive cases. We know that. We know it will happen. We’re going to have to deal with it, and I can assure that we will deal with it and when we impose quarantines on students and staff, we are doing that for a reason.” 

I am trying to recall a time I went to school where within a week 116 students were kept at home or got sick all at once. I am pretty sure if that happened, it wouldn't be business as usual. Then again, that was a different time, and to be fair, that would have been like a 6th of the schools' student body.

I just don't understand.


----------



## Janx

ccs said:


> Maybe its some sort of population control experiment?




It's weird the things that can and cannot be kept secret.

Just read about Wilmington's Lie. in 1898, a town had a racist coup, and for the longer part, they and revisionist history won.

But on the flip side, there's not likely an organized effort to release a virus and make lots of people die.  It's more incompetence and assumption that most of the victims will be people who wouldn't vote for the leaders, so let it run amok.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Janx said:


> It's weird the things that can and cannot be kept secret.
> 
> Just read about Wilmington's Lie. in 1898, a town had a racist coup, and for the longer part, they and revisionist history won.
> 
> But on the flip side, there's not likely an organized effort to release a virus and make lots of people die.  It's more incompetence and assumption that most of the victims will be people who wouldn't vote for the leaders, so let it run amok.



Wilmington is the only place on American soil that we've ever had a coup d'etat, and it was because of racism. 


Deset Gled said:


> 116 students quarantined after cases reported when the Mississippi schools open up.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/06/school-coronavirus-outbreak-mississippi/?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark
> 
> 
> 
> "“Just because you begin to have positive cases, that is not a reason for closing school,” Superintendent Lee Childress said in a Facebook Live broadcast on Tuesday on the school district’s Facebook page. "
> 
> *YES IT IS!  *What the heck wrong with you?



Yeah. That's exactly the reason to close down the schools.


----------



## ccs

Janx said:


> It's weird the things that can and cannot be kept secret.
> 
> Just read about Wilmington's Lie. in 1898, a town had a racist coup, and for the longer part, they and revisionist history won.
> 
> But on the flip side, there's not likely an organized effort to release a virus and make lots of people die.  It's more incompetence and assumption that most of the victims will be people who wouldn't vote for the leaders, so let it run amok.




No no, releasing the virus isn't the plan/experiment.  That's just nature.  Stuff happens.
The experiment I'm joking(?) about is allowing Sturgis to proceed as normal & seeing how many stupid people show up.  They're expecting what, a quarter million attendees?  More?  Nothing will go wrong with this size of gathering.....
You draw in the stupid, you count them, then you track them & see how many get sick/die/survive.  It's a mass Darwin's Award test.  Thinning out the gene pool.

Ideally you'd round them all up before they could leave.  Like a giant roach trap, but for stupid people.  That won't happen though.

Language, please!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

So which do you think will result in the worst C19 outbreak: Sturgis or Georgia’s school system?








						Georgia students punished over photos of crowded school
					

One student received a five-day suspension for sharing a video of her school during dismissal.




					nypost.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> So which do you think will result in the worst C19 outbreak: Sturgis or Georgia’s school system?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Georgia students punished over photos of crowded school
> 
> 
> One student received a five-day suspension for sharing a video of her school during dismissal.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nypost.com




  I'ma guessing school.


----------



## Hussar

From the article said:
			
		

> On Wednesday, Carmona reportedly announced over the intercom that any student found criticizing the school on social media could face disciplinary consequences, BuzzFeed reported.
> 
> 
> Furthermore, in an email to the Associated Press, Paulding County Superintendent Brian Ottot said Tuesday, “Wearing a mask is a personal choice and there is no practical way to enforce a mandate to wear them” — despite having a very clear and enforceable dress code on the district’s website, which bars, among dozens of other style choices, “pants that touch the ground,” “sweatbands” and garments with “frayed ends.”




WTF?  You cannot enforce a mask mandate?  ARE YOU ")%#(%$(#' KIDDING ME?  Schools are one of the few places where it is 100% acceptable to enforce mandates, like it or hate it.  

Gotta love the juxtaposition here though.  "If you exercise your First Amendment right to free speech, you will be punished" but, "While we can totally run roughshod over your rights, we cannot tell you what to wear".  

_headdesk**headdesk**headdesk_


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Hussar said:


> Gotta love the juxtaposition here though. "If you exercise your First Amendment right to free speech, you will be punished" but, "While we can totally run roughshod over your rights, we cannot tell you what to wear".



Yeah, it seems backwards. No, not seems. It is backwards.


----------



## Zardnaar

No constitution seems to be an advantage sometimes.

 All hail her majesty Queen Jacinda erm I mean Elizabeth.


----------



## Umbran

ccs said:


> You draw in the stupid, you count them, then you track them & see how many get sick/die/survive.  It's a mass Darwin's Award test.




This fails one of the more basic conspiracy theory sniff tests - it requires the conspirators to be both competent geniuses, and incompetent fools.

They have to be competent and genius enough to identify and track a quarter million people from all over the nation.

They have to be complete idiots, because they fail the basic understanding that the overwhelming majority of deaths associated with the event will be people _who didn't go to the event_.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> WTF?  You cannot enforce a mask mandate?  ARE YOU ")%#(%$(#' KIDDING ME?  Schools are one of the few places where it is 100% acceptable to enforce mandates, like it or hate it.




Yeah.  The collective roar of every girl's eyes rolling upon hearing that, after being sent home for wearing spaghetti straps, the wrong hairstyle, or shorts that are above the knee, is deafening.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

In one article about Sturgis, a city official was quoted as saying “we can’t just put up roadblocks.”

I’m thinking...how many roads in and out of Sturgis are there?  I mean, most urbanized areas over a certain size do have the material & equipment to substan block ingress & egress.

And the schools that are doing all the handwringing about masks probably have a long history of suspending students for dress code violations...including for clothing expressing speech.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

And a nice illustration of how C19 spreads like a wildfire:


			https://www.yahoo.com/nearly-100-people-ohio-got-110623316.html


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Yeah.  The collective roar of every girl's eyes rolling upon hearing that, after being sent home for wearing spaghetti straps, the wrong hairstyle, or shorts that are above the knee, is deafening.



Yeah. Schools already have dress codes. Adding a mask to the dress code, which would protect the health of the general population, doesn't seem unreasonable when I've seen people sent home/have to be given something to change into for wearing something that only offends the eyes.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yeah. Schools already have dress codes. Adding a mask to the dress code, which would protect the health of the general population, doesn't seem unreasonable when I've seen people sent home/have to be given something to change into for wearing something that only offends the eyes.




You know, thinking on this, there is a kind of logic...

1) People get bloody well shot in retail stores for trying to insist on masks.  Is Mrs. Crabapple supposed to face down some covid-denier with an assault rifle for making little Johnny cover his mouth and nose?

2) Masks are excellent... for short, casual contact.  Wear one in the grocery, or on the street, and you are unlikely to infect a passerby.  This breaks down when you have people in an enclosed space, sharing air.  Kids are in classrooms breathing each other's air for hours and hours - the mask isn't really going to save them.

3) Given 2, _not_ enforcing masks gets them to have an outbreak _quickly_ and the school shut back down, which might actually minimize the impact.


----------



## Cadence

I'm wondering if, as the crisis goes on, if there are a  number of people in health care, medicine, public health, biostatistics and the like who have started getting fed up with everything and are now posting full-throated  conspiracy things...  and their family or friends or colleagues are never going to be able to un-see it.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> 1) People get bloody well shot in retail stores for trying to insist on masks. Is Mrs. Crabapple supposed to face down some covid-denier with an assault rifle for making little Johnny cover his mouth and nose?



If a mask could stop 2 people from getting infected (I'm not going by statistics here, just an example number), who could then infect more people, who would then infect more, until eventually people will die from your infecting these 2 people, someone being shot seems like a lower risk for death than coronavirus infection. It is horrifying that we have to compare these risks here in America. I've only seen a few examples of people being shot over mask-related problems. 

Also, Covid-19 is contagious. Rage-induced shooting rampages don't seem to be. 


Umbran said:


> 2) Masks are excellent... for short, casual contact. Wear one in the grocery, or on the street, and you are unlikely to infect a passerby. This breaks down when you have people in an enclosed space, sharing air. Kids are in classrooms breathing each other's air for hours and hours - the mask isn't really going to save them.



Yeah, masks aren't great in those circumstances. This more illustrates the point that going back to school is a bad idea no matter what the safety measures are more than anything else. It reduces spread, and if the desks are far enough apart, it is more unlikely to spread the virus. I don't know if many (if any) schools will have those precautions. 

Also, maybe if more people wear masks, more will jump on the bandwagon (hasn't seemed to work yet, but who know? Maybe if their kids have to wear masks, some people will start wearing masks?)


Umbran said:


> 3) Given 2, _not_ enforcing masks gets them to have an outbreak _quickly_ and the school shut back down, which might actually minimize the impact.



Or it could lead to just a spread in Coronavirus if they don't close the school down. I don't think the people who are pushing for re-opening schools mid-pandemic will want to stop re-opening just because of an increase in cases. The current increase in cases hasn't done much to stop the opening up.


----------



## Zardnaar

Travel warning for NZ from the US.

United States government issues travel warning for New Zealand due to '23 active cases'

 Not safe here, 23 active cases (in isolation). Moot point anyway borders closed to non residents/citizens.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Also, Covid-19 is contagious. Rage-induced shooting rampages don't seem to be.




Dude, Mrs. Crabapple is already putting her life on the line teaching the little germ-factories.

And you're like, "Okay, she can get shot, too.  That's fine." 



> This more illustrates the point that going back to school is a bad idea no matter what the safety measures are more than anything else.




Yep.



> It reduces spread, and if the desks are far enough apart, it is more unlikely to spread the virus.  I don't know if many (if any) schools will have those precautions.




If your precautions do not reduce the Rt of the virus below 1, you _will_ have an outbreak in the school.  Reducing _some_ is kind of like parachuting the first 10,000 feet, but then free-falling the next 10,000.


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Travel warning for NZ from the US.
> 
> United States government issues travel warning for New Zealand due to '23 active cases'
> 
> Not safe here, 23 active cases (in isolation). Moot point anyway borders closed to non residents/citizens.




Not safe at 23 cases in isolation?  Would that we were all so endangered.....


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> You know, thinking on this, there is a kind of logic...
> 
> 1) People get bloody well shot in retail stores for trying to insist on masks.  Is Mrs. Crabapple supposed to face down some covid-denier with an assault rifle for making little Johnny cover his mouth and nose?
> 
> 2) Masks are excellent... for short, casual contact.  Wear one in the grocery, or on the street, and you are unlikely to infect a passerby.  This breaks down when you have people in an enclosed space, sharing air.  Kids are in classrooms breathing each other's air for hours and hours - the mask isn't really going to save them.
> 
> 3) Given 2, _not_ enforcing masks gets them to have an outbreak _quickly_ and the school shut back down, which might actually minimize the impact.




Except that we do have examples where masking, while not perfect, is working reasonably well.  Japanese kids have been back to school now for three months, with masks in place and some other due dilligence, and, while Japan's rate has been rising recently, it's not rising in the schools.

I mean, open the windows, turn on the air conditioner/fans, and wear the masks.  It is working.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Dude, Mrs. Crabapple is already putting her life on the line teaching the little germ-factories.
> 
> And you're like, "Okay, she can get shot, too. That's fine."



No, obviously it is not fine, but the amount of people who will be shot because of mask-related issues will probably be less than the amount of people who would catch/die from Covid-19 if they hadn't worn masks. 

I'm just saying. If you lower the risk of Covid-19 with the mask, the option of being shot at because of that is not a significant risk to argue against mandating masks in school. 


Umbran said:


> If your precautions do not reduce the Rt of the virus below 1, you _will_ have an outbreak in the school. Reducing _some_ is kind of like parachuting the first 10,000 feet, but then free-falling the next 10,000.



Yeah, I agree with you. The schools in America should not be opening up, especially without mask mandates or social distancing guidelines.


----------



## Zardnaar

Fiji and Taiwan apparently doing good as well. 









						100 days without Covid-19: How NZ got rid of a virus that keeps spreading across the world
					

ANALYSIS: New Zealand is about to mark 100 days without community transmission of Covid-19. Here are the key lessons.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




Friends sell propelled germ factory age 6 in Houston hasn't been to school since March. She is gonna do homeschooling for the forseeable future.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Travel warning for NZ from the US.
> 
> United States government issues travel warning for New Zealand due to '23 active cases'
> 
> Not safe here, 23 active cases (in isolation). Moot point anyway borders closed to non residents/citizens.



It’s almost laughable.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

And more kids & teachers getting sick...








						Within 11 days of schools opening, dozens of students and teachers have gotten COVID-19: 'I truly wish we'd kept our children home'
					

Schools began reopening several weeks ago. Dozens of students and staff have already tested positive for COVID-19.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Also, Covid-19 is contagious. Rage-induced shooting rampages don't seem to be.



Actually, a theory first published in 2015 suggests that they are.








						Mass Shootings Can Be Contagious, Research Shows
					

It may not be a coincidence that several mass shootings took place in one week. Research shows perpetrators are often inspired by media coverage of other shootings.




					www.npr.org


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Travel warning for NZ from the US.
> 
> United States government issues travel warning for New Zealand due to '23 active cases'
> 
> Not safe here, 23 active cases (in isolation). Moot point anyway borders closed to non residents/citizens.



Just walked past the Pullman hotel, group of quarantined returnees there. Still, the US warning seems a little off, it's like "Bro, have you seen what your own country is like? We think it's unsafe for you to come here too."


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Just walked past the Pullman hotel, group of quarantined returnees there. Still, the US warning seems a little off, it's like "Bro, have you seen what your own country is like? We think it's unsafe for you to come here too."




I don't think we have any qurantine down here. They were talking about Queenstown/Dunedin. 

 Queenstown was dropped, they have the rooms but lack ICU units. 

 Americans here seem happy enough along with the various stranded travellers. 

 Long article. 









						How the Pandemic Defeated America
					

A virus has brought the world’s most powerful country to its knees.




					www.theatlantic.com
				




 Basically they spend almost triple we do on healthcare but 25% if it basically disappears. 

 We've got very few ICU beds per capita apparently hence the lockdown. No takeaways for what 5 weeks iirc. Not much of anything.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> No, obviously it is not fine, but the amount of people who will be shot because of mask-related issues will probably be less than the amount of people who would catch/die from Covid-19 if they hadn't worn masks.




Ah, yes, the cold, hard "calculus of death".  You may want to look for a role in government or insurance adjustment.



> I'm just saying. If you lower the risk of Covid-19 with the mask, the option of being shot at because of that is not a significant risk to argue against mandating masks in school.




So, now pretend you are a school principle, and you have to tell that to the teachers you need to come back into the classroom.  Consider how you this will go over with teachers who are already on the verge of quitting over the risk being imposed on them and their families as a requirement of work at a frustrating, highly skilled job for which they are already significantly underpaid.  Do this _after_ talking about the budget cuts, by the way.  Make it the closing point of your address.

I am not of the opinion that it will be taken well at all.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> I mean, open the windows, turn on the air conditioner/fans, and wear the masks.




And, in November, with the windows open, and it is 40 degrees outside?  In January, when it is below freezing?

All the school buildings I used as a kid are still standing and operational.  Not a one of them has a forced-air HVAC system at all, much less one that can produce the air turnover required to significantly reduce the risk of covid spread.


----------



## Umbran

Relevant to this discussion.









						What Matters: I asked for hate mail from teachers and this is what I got
					

When I wrote Wednesday about the crisis of kids not being in school and linked to a story written by a nurse and arguing teachers are essential workers and that kids should be in the classroom, I invited them to email me their hate mail.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> So, now pretend you are a school principle, and you have to tell that to the teachers you need to come back into the classroom.  Consider how you this will go over with teachers who are already on the verge of quitting over the risk being imposed on them and their families as a requirement of work at a frustrating, highly skilled job for which they are already significantly underpaid.  Do this _after_ talking about the budget cuts, by the way.  Make it the closing point of your address.
> 
> I am not of the opinion that it will be taken well at all.




Most of the teachers I know are NOT happy.  Retired ones are saying they’d quit.  Employed ones are saying that sounds like a plan.

Weeks ago, I mentioned that the pandemic might resculpt society.  This is one area in which I’m thinking the probability is high.

I’ve been seeing a lot of online posts from teachers and school admins who are most definitely NOT on board with school reopening plans.   Especially after some of those already opening have had C19 events- one on the very first day of classes.

One I saw recently was an administrator sending out a thank you to all the teachers in his school system who had recently quit instead of work under their state’s reopening plan.  It seems there was a big public meeting in which many parents vocally &amp; loudly urged teachers unwilling to teach classes in person to quit.  So a shitload of them did, along with a bunch of ancillary personnel.

So the admin had to hold _another_ public meeting with parents at which he announced they didn’t have the required staff to reopen for in person classes, so everything was going to be done remotely.

_mic drop
silence_

“Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it.”


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> And, in November, with the windows open, and it is 40 degrees outside?  In January, when it is below freezing?




Or when it’s raining cats & dogs?



> All the school buildings I used as a kid are still standing and operational.  Not a one of them has a forced-air HVAC system at all, much less one that can produce the air turnover required to significantly reduce the risk of covid spread.




The ones my Mom taught in in the 1960s are still in use, after some post-Katrina cleaning.  Given the impoverished nature of Louisiana’s school system, I doubt their HVAC has been significantly upgraded anytime recently.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Retired ones are saying they’d quit.  Employed ones are saying that sounds like a plan.




I'm currently helping/mentoring a Junior High School teacher from the Pacific Northwest to transition out of teaching, and into the commercial job market.  They quit because asking them to teach in person at this stage seems... like betrayal.


----------



## Wasteland Knight

My household strictly quarantining and have been doing so for months.  Plan to do so until there is an effective vaccine or cases in the US have significantly dropped to very small numbers and flatlined.  I fully expect to be WFH from a long time.

if I had a fane going it would have been cancelled (or I would have politely dropped out) a long time ago.

But I haven’t had time for gaming in many years.

However, the funny thing is now that I have so much time on my hands, plus various people I have games with over the years also finding themselves with tons of free time, we decided to try VTT gaming, and I’ll be running a Roll20 game this weekend.

Basically, I went and gathered parts of my old HS and college groups fir a new game.


----------



## Cadence

I'm university faculty and my spouse is on staff. Luckily our building has outside air vented in, windows that open, and water based AC/heat with separate blowers in each room.

She had to start going in twice a week this week (first time since March, had been working from home; alternating days with the person in the next office; no one live Friday).  One person needing help at a time in her office, giant plexiglass shield in front of her desk, masks required.  We bought a nice HEPA filter for her office.  The campus is basically empty for another few weeks. We'll see when the students start coming back.

Half of our faculty are only teaching online. The rest are similar to what I'll have. 75 seat classroom capped at 25 students iirc.  I was going to be streaming the classes live (and making recordings) anyway for our graduate distance program.  I think they said anyone who isn't masking needed it cleared with the disabilities office.  If they hadn't had it look like a lot of our international grad students  would be hosed if we went all virtual, I might have asked to switch to just recorded.  At least they changed that rule eventually.

My son has the option of either doing 6th grade all on line, or 2 days live+3 days online.  Since we can work at home alternating days he's staying home. 

My guess is we won't even get close to Thanksgiving before it's all virtual everywhere.  If so, hopefully it's just a few positive tests leading to mass quarantines and not a bunch of dead teachers, and dead grandparents the kids live with or get day care from.

Really wish everyone could have at least tried over the past few months  (not complete lock down even, just close the high risk places [gyms, bars, crowded places with singing or yelling], mask, use curb-side pick up instead of going in, etc..).  We might have been at a 1% positive rate on tests instead of close to 20% or whatever it is now here -- and these plans might  have had a better chance of working.

Anyway.  One or two nights a week of EDH (Magic) via spelltable and discord, and running 5e on Google meet for my son and two of his friends.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Just for giggles, I looked up the age demographics for NYC and Sturgis.  Median age in NYC: 34.  In Sturgis: 41.

That’s not going to help them any.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Just for giggles, I looked up the age demographics for NYC and Sturgis.  Median age in NYC: 34.  In Sturgis: 41.




Ouch.  That's not going to be pretty. Not only are they older, but that implies spouses and family that are older at home, too.


----------



## Zardnaar

Scientists here looking at the strains. 

 Mostly from the USA, not Asia as it turns out. 









						Otago study reveals origins of NZ Covid cases
					

University of Otago scientists have completed months of detective work to reveal where New Zealand's cases of Covid-19 came from at the height of...




					www.odt.co.nz
				




 Thanks America!

 They haven't managed to track it back further than Feb 28 which was when they first found it. USA had 19 cases apparently on that date.

 All strains made it here though. No new cases found 3 days in a row.  99 days of no community spread. 

 Yesterday they did around 4000 tests, they doing random tests to see if there's undetected community spread a a few scares with overseas positives from people who have left NZ.

 Also testing the flight path of those doing runners from qurantine.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

LA’s mayor threatens to shut off utilities to houses hosting parties amid pandemic.








						LA threatens to shut off utilities at 'super-spreader' house parties after recent mass gatherings amid COVID-19
					

Mayor Eric Garcetti announced the City of Los Angeles would go as far as shutting off utilities to houses hosting parties during the pandemic.




					abc7.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Write up in New England Medical Journal. 



			https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025203


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Write up in New England Medical Journal.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025203


----------



## Zardnaar

17000 fans in stadium, my team lost.









						Crusaders topple Highlanders to win Super Rugby Aotearoa
					

Fast-finishing Crusaders come from behind to beat Highlanders and win the title with a round to spare.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Becoming surreal I suppose. Last place in the world with live crowds?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Preliminary study:

Some coronavirus masks make infection risk worse, scientists find









						Certain face masks may be worse than no mask at all, preliminary Duke study finds
					

By now we all know that N-95 masks are better than surgical masks which are better than cloth masks which are better than a scarf or bandana.




					abc7chicago.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> 17000 fans in stadium, my team lost.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Crusaders topple Highlanders to win Super Rugby Aotearoa
> 
> 
> Fast-finishing Crusaders come from behind to beat Highlanders and win the title with a round to spare.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Becoming surreal I suppose. Last place in the world with live crowds?



Dude, have you not heard of Sturgis?


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Dude, have you not heard of Sturgis?




 I did. Should have said safely lol. 

 What was the turnout there? 250k was being thrown around a d the band Fozzy played. All I know about it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Emergency Covid announcement in 4 minutes.

9.15pm on a Tuesday night.

Prime Minister and Director General of Health. 

 Reddit saying apparently they've found a case of community spread in Auckland, source unknown.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

It ends on the 16th.  Bands I know playing or have already played this year: Smash Mouth, Quiet Riot, Bone Thugs N Harmony, Kenny Wayne Shepard, Buckcherry, Trapt, Molly Hatchet, Night Ranger, Colt Ford, Lit, Reverend Horton Heat, Jackyl, 38 Special and Drowning Pool.

ZZ Top, Willie Nelson, and Lynyrd Skynyrd all withdrew.


----------



## cbwjm

Ah dammit. Its back in NZ outside the controlled quarantine areas. 4 people in one family have registered as positive, unknown source of contact.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Ah dammit. Its back in NZ outside the controlled quarantine areas. 4 people in one family have registered as positive, unknown source of contact.




Auckland level 3 lock down effective tomorrow at noon. Level 2 for us. Schools closed in Auckland and travel restrictions.

Just canceled D&D. Gonna go into town tomorrow soon as it opens. Haircut,  grab some masks.


Got the emergency buzz/siren on the phone


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Auckland level 3 lock down effective tomorrow at noon. Level 2 for us. Schools closed in Auckland and travel restrictions.
> 
> Just canceled D&D. Gonna go into town tomorrow soon as it opens. Haircut,  grab some masks.




I was planning on grabbing some masks this week and then this happened. Might go to a pharmacy tomorrow morning and buy some for the flat.

Thankfully my hairline has led to me using a pair of clippers to do my hair so I don't have to worry about it going crazy if this lockdown extends past Friday (which I'm assuming it will).


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> I was planning on grabbing some masks this week and then this happened. Might go to a pharmacy tomorrow morning and buy some for the flat.
> 
> Thankfully my hairline has led to me using a pair of clippers to do my hair so I don't have to worry about it going crazy if this lockdown extends past Friday (which I'm assuming it will).




 Well our conversation a few days ago was semi prophetic. You get the national alert buzz on your phone?


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Well our conversation a few days ago was semi prophetic. You get the national alert buzz on your phone?



It scared the hell out of me when it went off. I should have been prepared for it considering what was happening. Was in the middle of messaging friends and almost dropped my phone.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Yesterday they did around 4000 tests, they doing random tests to see if there's undetected community spread a a few scares with overseas positives from people who have left NZ.




Would wastewater surveillance give even better coverage than random tests in terms of seeing if it was in a certain area?


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Would wastewater surveillance give even better coverage than random tests in terms of seeing if it was in a certain area?




 IDK. I've read they're looking into it idk if they're doing it.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> It scared the hell out of me when it went off. I should have been prepared for it considering what was happening. Was in the middle of messaging friends and almost dropped my phone.




Yeah I thought my phone crashed or something.

Within the hour.





 If anyone is really bored and this is how communication is done here. 15 minutes.


----------



## Zardnaar

Russians on other forums posted this. 

 Been rushed but might work.









						Coronavirus: Putin says vaccine has been approved for use
					

Russia's president says the vaccine - named Sputnik-V - has passed checks but experts are sceptical.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Within the hour.




... and none of them are wearing masks?  Of course...


----------



## Nebulous

Zardnaar said:


> Russians on other forums posted this.
> 
> Been rushed but might work.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: Putin says vaccine has been approved for use
> 
> 
> Russia's president says the vaccine - named Sputnik-V - has passed checks but experts are sceptical.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com



Interesting.


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> Russians on other forums posted this.
> 
> Been rushed but might work.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: Putin says vaccine has been approved for use
> 
> 
> Russia's president says the vaccine - named Sputnik-V - has passed checks but experts are sceptical.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com



I believe about 20% of what comes out of that guy's face at this point.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Russians on other forums posted this.
> 
> Been rushed but might work.




The Russians have not been following the international standard guidelines for for production, safety, and testing of this vaccine, and it hasn't had Phase 3 trials.  Which means claims to its efficacy should be taken with a grain of salt.  Given the source... maybe an entire salt lick.


----------



## Deset Gled

Update: 826 students under quarantine in Cherokee after possible COVID-19 exposures
					

n the six days that Cherokee County Schools have been in session, the north Georgia district has had to direct 826 students to quarantine due to exposure to COVID-19, along with 42 teachers.




					www.ajc.com
				




My previous post about 116 quarantined students is now an order of magnitude away from the high score.


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> The Russians have not been following the international standard guidelines for for production, safety, and testing of this vaccine, and it hasn't had Phase 3 trials.  Which means claims to its efficacy should be taken with a grain of salt.  Given the source... maybe an entire salt lick.



At least it isn't from China. I'd need a whole pound of sand if that was the case.


----------



## Deset Gled

MoonSong said:


> At least it isn't from China. I'd need a whole pound of sand if that was the case.




Honestly, the US numbers are just as suspect as China's these days.

HHS took over data from the CDC on July 21st (ish), which by an amazing coincidence is also when our national numbers changed from an upward trend to a downward trend.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> ... and none of them are wearing masks?  Of course...




 We didn't use them en masse last time mostly because you couldn't get them. 

Complacency has also set in. I have a few going into town first thing as lockdown doesn't start for another 6 hours.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> The Russians have not been following the international standard guidelines for for production, safety, and testing of this vaccine, and it hasn't had Phase 3 trials.  Which means claims to its efficacy should be taken with a grain of salt.  Given the source... maybe an entire salt lick.




 Yeah similar thoughts. Have doubts it's going to work. Russians are decent at STEM though and have had bioweapons programs for decades. They've taken shortcuts.

 I've got my doubts but it's plausible.


----------



## Cadence

Deset Gled said:


> Honestly, the US numbers are just as suspect as China's these days.
> 
> HHS took over data from the CDC on July 21st (ish), which by an amazing coincidence is also when our national numbers changed from an upward trend to a downward trend.




That's the hospitalization numbers they took over, right?  The death and positive numbers didn't seem too wonky last week when a cousin and I ran a weekly set of graphs to share on FB.

As few posts ago at Blog was about it.


----------



## Nebulous

I think the US needs another mandated country wide lockdown and mask law made official not unlike seatbelt law until this thing is under control.  People won't like that kind of "control" but obviously Americans do not have the ability to protect themselves individually.


----------



## Zardnaar

Nebulous said:


> I think the US needs another mandated country wide lockdown and mask law made official not unlike seatbelt law until this thing is under control.  People won't like that kind of "control" but obviously Americans do not have the ability to protect themselves individually.




It's kind of an Anglo Saxon thing not just America. They're a bit more extreme perhaps.

Reddits been entertaining at least.










 Level 3 lockdown. Similar to level 4 but you can get KFC.


----------



## Umbran

Nebulous said:


> I think the US needs another mandated country wide lockdown and mask law made official not unlike seatbelt law until this thing is under control.




To be clear, the US doesn't need "another", because we never had these in the first place.


----------



## Nebulous

Umbran said:


> To be clear, the US doesn't need "another", because we never had these in the first place.



Yes, that's right.  To say another would be incorrect.  But I've seen the videos; there are so many hundreds of thousands of anti-maskers, I don't even think law would help unless the fines were very strict.


----------



## Ryujin

Nebulous said:


> Yes, that's right.  To say another would be incorrect.  But I've seen the videos; there are so many hundreds of thousands of anti-maskers, I don't even think law would help unless the fines were very strict.




Try to enforce something like that, scrupulously, and you'd likely have riots in the "Freedom or Death" States (mostly, but not all "fly-over" States).


----------



## Zardnaar

Nebulous said:


> Yes, that's right.  To say another would be incorrect.  But I've seen the videos; there are so many hundreds of thousands of anti-maskers, I don't even think law would help unless the fines were very strict.




It's more enforcement vs harshness of penalty IMHO.

6:57an, national alert reminder in cellphones. It's quite shrill lol. Been awake since 5:20.


----------



## Zardnaar

Wear a mask she said. Went to Pharmacy at 8:33am, website said they opened at 8:30. Sold out already except for two double packs of N-95 at $10 a pack.

 Big box retail pulled them from the shelf last night presumably for their staff.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Wear a mask she said. Went to Pharmacy at 8:33am, website said they opened at 8:30. Sold out already except for two double packs of N-95 at $10 a pack.
> 
> Big box retail pulled them from the shelf last night presumably for their staff.



I was able to by a box of 50 from my local pharmacy for people in my flat. Final box.

Currently waiting for the midday alert message stating lockdown is now in effect


----------



## Zardnaar

What part of Auckland are you in? 

I've got a grand total of 9 masks. Managed to find a few for sale but gave them to father in law.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> What part of Auckland are you in?
> 
> I've got a grand total of 9 masks. Managed to find a few for sale but gave them to father in law.



I'm in Newmarket, so central. Hoping that the afflicted haven't spent time in the CBD recently but who knows.

Thought they'd do another alert to remind us that lockdown had started but I guess the morning wakeup was all they needed.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> I'm in Newmarket, so central. Hoping that the afflicted haven't spent time in the CBD recently but who knows.
> 
> Thought they'd do another alert to remind us that lockdown had started but I guess the morning wakeup was all they needed.




 I liked Newmarket when I was up there. Gamestore still there?


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> I liked Newmarket when I was up there. Gamestore still there?



Not that I'm aware of, do you recall where in newmarket they were located? I've wandered all over Newmarket, so most likely it is gone.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Ryujin said:


> Try to enforce something like that, scrupulously, and you'd likely have riots in the "Freedom or Death" States (mostly, but not all "fly-over" States).



We had a "lockdown", in the loosest sense of the term, earlier this year and there were protests, but no riots. I don't think there would be riots, just more idiots protesting the lockdown.


----------



## Ryujin

AcererakTriple6 said:


> We had a "lockdown", in the loosest sense of the term, earlier this year and there were protests, but no riots. I don't think there would be riots, just more idiots protesting the lockdown.




Where are you? There have already been heavily armed "protesters", objecting to stay-at-home and mask orders. That's just one set away.









						Hundreds of armed anti-mask protesters gather in Ohio
					

A large anti-mask protest clashed with a Black Lives Matter counter-protest outside the Ohio statehouse in Columbus on Saturday as Ohio coronavirus cases continue to rise.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Ryujin said:


> Where are you? There have already been heavily armed "protesters", objecting to stay-at-home and mask orders. That's just one set away.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hundreds of armed anti-mask protesters gather in Ohio
> 
> 
> A large anti-mask protest clashed with a Black Lives Matter counter-protest outside the Ohio statehouse in Columbus on Saturday as Ohio coronavirus cases continue to rise.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk



I knew about this, but those aren't riots. If there were riots against government enforced guidelines and laws, that would be a different scenario, altogether.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Not that I'm aware of, do you recall where in newmarket they were located? I've wandered all over Newmarket, so most likely it is gone.




 I can't recall street names. It was an area with shops the main area idk. 

 It was funny they ask you what suburb you're from. Was basically a polite way of asking how much you earn lol. 

 Panic shopping down here. Still got stuff from last time (pasta, rice canned goods etc). 

 If it goes sideways in gonna blame the French!!!


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> I can't recall street names. It was an area with shops the main area idk.
> 
> It was funny they ask you what suburb you're from. Was basically a polite way of asking how much you earn lol.
> 
> Panic shopping down here. Still got stuff from last time (pasta, rice canned goods etc).
> 
> If it goes sideways in gonna blame the French!!!



Pretty sure the game store is gone, I'm sure if have found it a long time ago if it was still there. 

Apparently a bit of panic buying here as well. I decided to avoid the local supermarket this morning, not worth the trouble.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Pretty sure the game store is gone, I'm sure if have found it a long time ago if it was still there.
> 
> Apparently a bit of panic buying here as well. I decided to avoid the local supermarket this morning, not worth the trouble.




 Yeah it was 14 odd years ago.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

We’re having some possible panic buying as well: rice, one particular store brand of diet soft drink, fancy sliced breads, and thin cut pork chops were all scarce or completely gone from the shelves of the Kroger closest to me.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We’re having some possible panic buying as well: rice, one particular store brand of diet soft drink, fancy sliced breads, and thin cut pork chops were all scarce or completely gone from the shelves of the Kroger closest to me.




Disruptions in supply chain maybe? They were predicting shortages a few months back.

Takes a while to run down existing stocks.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Probably a bit of both.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Probably a bit of both.




Unemployment money running out buy food?

They were looking at making masks mandatory but then it was pointed out you can't really buy them.

Mandatory for planes, beat it before without them round two.

 Also who you know. Wife bought a 50 pack through her work.


----------



## Imaculata

It also seems a lot of improvized masks don't work at all, as we probably all suspected. Wrapping a scarf around your mouth is not the same as wearing an actual mask.

Meanwhile Brussels has made facemasks mandatory in all public places.

However, some recreational facilities in Europe don't think human lives are as important as making money. Well known theme parks such as Parc Asterix do a half-arsed job at enforcing social distancing, and even make it impossible on some rides. While Disneyland Paris and the Efteling keep an empty car between riders on most of its attractions, Parc Asterix in France loads its attractions to full capacity. So you could find yourself in a water ride with total strangers, who also take their masks off during the ride, like these unfortunate souls:


And this is just one example. In fact, that whole video is a full of examples of social distancing and masks not being enforced on any of the rides. Why would people even go to a themepark right now? If anything, people should be avoiding places with lots of people. And yet the Dutch beaches are also crowded right now. People are so stupid.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Humans aren’t as smart as we like to think we are.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Humans aren’t as smart as we like to think we are.




Speak for yourself I'm a cynic. We're overly evolved self aware monkey's with nukes and social media.

 Nukes are probably safer.


----------



## Hussar

Welp, we had a bit of a hump here in Japan over July and into August, but, it looks like it's plateaued out and cases are falling again.

Again, I have no friggin' idea why Japan isn't swimming in corpses, but, apparently we're not.  It's frankly terrifying.  I've been teaching live f2f classes since May now as have most of my non-university colleagues and, well, it appears that things are fairly well under control.  Sure, we're not New Zealand, but, it's not exactly a runaway problem.

Went out to a new restaurant with the family yesterday.  First time I've sat down in a restaurant in months.  Felt fantastic.  Great roast beef sandwich too.  

On the plus side, was talking to my folks in Canada.  When the quarantine lifts, they're advertising round trip flights Toronto to Tokyo for 500 USD.  With guaranteed cancellation.  O.O  I've never seen that particular flight for less than 2 grand with discounts.  Hell, the domestic flight from Tokyo to here is about 300 USD.  LOL.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Speak for yourself.  We're overly evolved self aware monkey's with nukes and social media.




You don't seem to be contradicting him in the slightest.

Humans are still frequently dominated by cognitive pathways that aren't rational, and people with agendas have learned to manipulate that.


----------



## Deset Gled

Imaculata said:


> Why would people even go to a themepark right now?




As usual, the USA raises the bar on stupidity and violence.









						Police: Couple Punches 17-Year-Old Sesame Place Employee Who Asked Them To Wear Masks
					

The employee was rushed to the hospital and underwent surgery on his jaw.




					philadelphia.cbslocal.com


----------



## Istbor

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We’re having some possible panic buying as well: rice, one particular store brand of diet soft drink, fancy sliced breads, and thin cut pork chops were all scarce or completely gone from the shelves of the Kroger closest to me.




Have not seen a return of that yet here, but we are not in the same situation Texas is. My state has been pretty consistent ever since 'reopening' however. I suppose that is what happens when only part of the state enacts mandatory indoor mask wearing for a couple of months while the rest doesn't believe there is any problem (a little hyperbole there).


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> As usual, the USA raises the bar on stupidity and violence.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Police: Couple Punches 17-Year-Old Sesame Place Employee Who Asked Them To Wear Masks
> 
> 
> The employee was rushed to the hospital and underwent surgery on his jaw.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> philadelphia.cbslocal.com



Yep!




__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yep!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Redirect Notice
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.com



My god.  What is wrong with people?

I sincerely hope there's a way someone can get a lawsuit out of that.


----------



## Cadence

Smoothed daily deaths in different parts of the US through 8/10/2019.  Each of the five US regions used in the graphs has a population similar to that of France.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> My god.  What is wrong with people?




See previous note about humans and cognitive paths that are not entirely rational.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Deset Gled said:


> My god. What is wrong with people?



Right now, it seems like everything is wrong with people.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Right now, it seems like everything is wrong with people.




Only people have the ability to have a concept of right and wrong.  So, only people can be wrong.  Everything else just... is what it is.

This moment of existential philosophy brought to you by... Hypnotoad!


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Only people have the ability to have a concept of right and wrong.  So, only people can be wrong.  Everything else just... is what it is.
> 
> This moment of existential philosophy brought to you by... Hypnotoad!



Nice insight (and weird frog). I agree that only people (and maybe aliens) are wrong, and that seems blatantly apparent during the pandemic.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Nice insight (and weird frog).




Go watch Futurama.  It often plays on SYFY, and is available on Hulu, I believe.  You will thank Hypnotoad.



> I agree that only people (and maybe aliens) are wrong...




Note I said people, not "humans".  Aliens can be people.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Aliens and artificial life forms may or may not be “people”, but any that are may well be just as messed up as we are.  Albeit possibly in ways we’ll never experience.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Albeit possibly in ways we’ll never experience.



Well, this happened earlier this year.


----------



## Zardnaar

13 new cases today plus one in isolation.

They're communicating to the public where they've been and to come forward to get tested.

Mandatory isolation ie supervised this time round. Last time they asked.

All linked to previous people so one cluster total.


----------



## Imaculata

Umbran said:


> This moment of existential philosophy brought to you by... Hypnotoad!




ALL GLORY TO THE HYPNOTOAD!


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> 13 new cases today plus one in isolation.
> 
> They're communicating to the public where they've been and to come forward to get tested.
> 
> Mandatory isolation ie supervised this time round. Last time they asked.
> 
> All linked to previous people so one cluster total.



It's looking more and more likely that Auckland is going to remain in level 3 lockdown after Friday.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> It's looking more and more likely that Auckland is going to remain in level 3 lockdown after Friday.




Unofficially apparently it's gonna be 4 soon.

Brothers slumming it up on the North Shore. Rang him up to see if he needed masks but apparently you can buy them. He was a pilot but has been unemployed since March.

But yeah until they've traced a the links gonna be level 3 at least.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Unofficially apparently it's gonna be 4 soon.
> 
> Brothers slumming it up on the North Shore. Rang him up to see if he needed masks but apparently you can buy them.
> 
> But yeah until they've traced a the links gonna be level 3 at least.



Would not surprise me if it does go to level 4. Both high school and uni students have been found with the virus, that doesn't bode well for containing the spread. 

Got a message from my GP to book in advance if I'm coming in for a test. Sounds like they're worried they're going to be rushed with people wanting them


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Would not surprise me if it does go to level 4. Both high school and uni students have been found with the virus, that doesn't bode well for containing the spread.
> 
> Got a message from my GP to book in advance if I'm coming in for a test. Sounds like they're worried they're going to be rushed with people wanting them




 Gonna get a haircut tomorrow, did the doctor last week and I'll see about dentist.

 I suspect by tomorrow or day after well gave a better idea. 

 Everything leaks here. Information was on Reddit before Jacinda did her thing. 

 Wife's job usually knows what's happening in advance just by what's going where.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Gonna get a haircut tomorrow, did the doctor last week and I'll see about dentist.
> 
> I suspect by tomorrow or day after well gave a better idea.
> 
> Everything leaks here. Information was on Reddit before Jacinda did her thing.
> 
> Wife's job usually knows what's happening in advance just by what's going where.



I'm waiting for the briefing tomorrow afternoon to more or less confirm what everyone already knows. Not looking forward to another few weeks of lockdown, but it is what it is.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> I'm waiting for the briefing tomorrow afternoon to more or less confirm what everyone already knows. Not looking forward to another few weeks of lockdown, but it is what it is.




You were right about where it would happen. Predictable enough.

  My sister's in small town east Otago. They dodged Covid entirely, starting to get homesick lol.

Told my brother to sell his McMansion and come South. He's planning on doing that when he retires anyway.

Retire in Waitaki lol. Not much to do unless you like the great outdoors.

 Seen this?









						1pm Daily Update (TV Series 2020– ) - IMDb
					

1pm Daily Update: With Ashley Bloomfield, Jacinda Ardern, The Team of 5 Million, Alan Wendt. Set in a dystopian world where autocratic and populist leaders are in charge of the USA, China, UK, Brazil and many other nations. 1pm Daily Update takes place in the imaginary island nation of New...




					m.imdb.com
				




  Season 2. My favorite comment "due to fan backlash the leader of the opposition has been recast".


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> You were right about where it would happen. Predictable enough.
> 
> My sister's in small town east Otago. They dodged Covid entirely, starting to get homesick lol.
> 
> Told my brother to sell his McMansion and come South. He's planning on doing that when he retires anyway.
> 
> Retire in Waitaki lol. Not much to do unless you like the great outdoors.
> 
> Seen this?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 1pm Daily Update (TV Series 2020– ) - IMDb
> 
> 
> 1pm Daily Update: With Ashley Bloomfield, Jacinda Ardern, The Team of 5 Million, Alan Wendt. Set in a dystopian world where autocratic and populist leaders are in charge of the USA, China, UK, Brazil and many other nations. 1pm Daily Update takes place in the imaginary island nation of New...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> m.imdb.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Season 2. My favorite comment "due to fan backlash the leader of the opposition has been recast".



Haha, this is brilliant. I like the summaries on the episodes and the what will happen in tomorrow's episode "Will Auckland go into Level 4 or stay for a couple weeks in Level 3. Will the reporters ask dumb as questions? Find out in the much anticipated mid season finale."


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Haha, this is brilliant. I like the summaries on the episodes and the what will happen in tomorrow's episode "Will Auckland go into Level 4 or stay for a couple weeks in Level 3. Will the reporters ask dumb as questions? Find out in the much anticipated mid season finale."




Yeah it's quite good.

Reading some other stuff. Seems aircrew weren't isolated properly and they only tested about 1/3 of people that others assumed were tested.

Aircrew don't interact with Australians for example but they do with the passengers from Aussie.

Bus drivers to qurantine facilities not tested either.

So border leaks looking likely.

 Yesterday the IMDB thing was season 2 of NZs favorite TV show is back. Went up within the hour of Jacindas speech.


----------



## Zardnaar

Emergency supplies. 





 Found 100 facemasks as well.


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> See previous note about humans and cognitive paths that are not entirely rational.




To deny the problems caused by COVID19 is irrational.

To refuse to wear a mask in public is irrational and apathetic to the plight of others.

To order those who you supervise to not wear a mask is beyond irrational and apathetic; it is domineering and narcissistic.

To refuse to let people into a building you control if they wear a mask is beyond domineering; it's malicious to those that are at serious health risk.

To do all this as a person with government authority is straight up Evil.  With a capital E.


----------



## Zardnaar

They looked at making masks mandatory here but there's no real way to enforce it and the government would probably have to supply them. 

 Right now they're recommended for when social distancing isn't possible.

 Virtually no one using them at the supermarket yesterday but the social distancing was good and staff had them. 

 We're at a lower alert level though than Auckland. Just don't go anywhere where I need them them. Canceled all the social stuff like D&D. 

 Businesses have sanitizer and QR codes displayed.


----------



## cbwjm

I'll be wearing a mask when I go to the supermarket, for my morning coffee and walk I tend not to take one, not really interacting with anyone, everyone is more or less playing keep away.


----------



## Imaculata

I wish people would wear masks over here. I seem to be the only one doing it, and when I go to the supermarket, people look at me like I am some kind of alien. Mask are easily available here, so there is no excuse.


----------



## Hussar

It baffles me when people claim you can't enforce masks.  Umm, we enforce shoes and shirts.  What's the difference?


----------



## Imaculata

Masks are being enforced in public transport here. If you refuse to wear a mask, they'll kick you off the train. But your local underpaid casheer is not willing to get spat at and get punched in the face, for telling you to wear a mask at the local supermarket.


----------



## Zardnaar

Boring stuff. Took Jacinda 5 hours to lock Auckland down.

7 new cases today, 23000 tests done (previous best was 7800).

5 million masks on hand, 3 million sent to Auckland.

Our personal stockpile is 109 masks plus home made ones. Downloaded the QR ap today. 

No D&D for 3 weeks under level 2, at the gamestore at least. Private games are ok.

Uptake on masks has been patchy. Didn't use them last time that much so countries not used to it.

Last time more evenly distribution ethnically, 80% Pasifika (50% Pacific Islanders, 30% Maori).

Compulsory supervised isolation this time around. Two weeks in a 4 or 5 star hotel not of your choice. Unlimited catering though.


----------



## Cadence

Contact tracing... American style:








						14 States Make Contact Tracing Data Public. Here's What They're Learning
					

The information includes details on where transmission is happening most. If more states shared this widely, it could shape policy and save lives, health researchers say.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> It baffles me when people claim you can't enforce masks.  Umm, we enforce shoes and shirts.  What's the difference?




There are a couple differences:

1) Shoes and shirts are already the norm.  So, policing that is generally policing a very rare event, not a common one.

2) Folks _get assaulted_ when they try to enforce mask use in the US.


----------



## Ryujin

Put the contact tracing app on my phone, on Friday. Phone was at 100% in the morning. Down to 60% by lunch, because it turned on everything that I turn off in order to save battery. I'll likely turn it on the rare days that I leave the house, like this Monday when I have to go in to work in downtown Toronto, but it's going to be off the rest of the time.

I usually get 2-3 days on a charge.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Hussar said:
> 
> 
> 
> It baffles me when people claim you can't enforce masks.  Umm, we enforce shoes and shirts.  What's the difference?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There are a couple differences:
> 
> 1) Shoes and shirts are already the norm.  So, policing that is generally policing a very rare event, not a common one.
> 
> 2) Folks _get assaulted_ when they try to enforce mask use in the US.
Click to expand...


_Technically, _the impediments to masking order enforcement enforcement are all sociopolitical or- as Umbran points out- fear of assault.  AND all the liabilities that go with that.


----------



## Nebulous

Did anyone see that Dr. Fauci and Matthew McConaughey  interview the other day?  I thought it was very interesting.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I read it.  It was...alright, alright, alright.


----------



## cbwjm

Just got back from my local supermarket here in Auckland, majority of people were wearing a mask. This was my first time wearing one so I got to experience the joy of my glasses fogging up all the time, wasn't too bad when I was in the supermarket where it was warmer than outside though.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Just got back from my local supermarket here in Auckland, majority of people were wearing a mask. This was my first time wearing one so I got to experience the joy of my glasses fogging up all the time, wasn't too bad when I was in the supermarket where it was warmer than outside though.




 I've worn them a grand total of twice. 

 Generally just avoid situations requiring them. Translation don't go anywhere or do anything except walking around the block.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> I've worn them a grand total of twice.
> 
> Generally just avoid situations requiring them. Translation don't go anywhere or do anything except walking around the block.



That's what i normally do, go for a walk, grab a coffee from a cafe, most are well set up for social distancing, then wander around Auckland domain.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> That's what i normally do, go for a walk, grab a coffee from a cafe, most are well set up for social distancing, then wander around Auckland domain.




 We've got more options down here, I just avoid crowds. 

 In lockdown early Monday and Tuesday or late in rise days was a good time. 

 Ended up eating the left over brands no one else liked.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

How Covid Sends Some Bodies to War With Themselves
					

MANY COVID-19 PATIENTS MAY BE DYING FROM THEIR IMMUNE RESPONSE TO THE VIRUS, NOT FROM THE VIRUS ITSELF. CAN SCIENCE FIGURE OUT HOW TO SAVE THEM?Back in April, as the pandemic was cresting over New York, Iris Navarro-Millan, a physician at Weill Cornell Medicine in Manhattan, treated a Covid-19...




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Anti-mask protest in Broward:


			https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article244994110.html
		


Some of the protesters’ comments reminded me of:


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Anti-mask protest in Broward:
> 
> 
> https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article244994110.html
> 
> 
> 
> Some of the protesters’ comments reminded me of:




 Getting them here as well, but masks aren't mandatory. 

 Government more centralized here though and can move alot faster. 

 Mandatory quarantines now not just at the border. Get Covid you get transferred to a hotel or whstever.

 Air Marshall is working with the police and military to "encourage" you to stay. If you flee you get charged.


----------



## Hussar

Ok, someone explain this to me and please, type slowly because I certainly am having trouble wrapping my head around this.

Protesters in Florida are calling this a massive government over reach and rights violation.  Ok.  Fair enough.  I disagree, but, let's say they're right.  How can they then also be marching in favor of Trump?  After all, he's the president.  If there were government over reaches and rights violations, he's the one who is doing it.

What is the logic here.  What is the A to B to C because, I'm just not seeing it.  How do you protest federal government policies at the same time support the sitting president?  How does that work?


----------



## billd91

Hussar said:


> Ok, someone explain this to me and please, type slowly because I certainly am having trouble wrapping my head around this.
> 
> Protesters in Florida are calling this a massive government over reach and rights violation.  Ok.  Fair enough.  I disagree, but, let's say they're right.  How can they then also be marching in favor of Trump?  After all, he's the president.  If there were government over reaches and rights violations, he's the one who is doing it.
> 
> What is the logic here.  What is the A to B to C because, I'm just not seeing it.  How do you protest federal government policies at the same time support the sitting president?  How does that work?




Identity politics. They embrace a particular partisan identity that allows them to square that circle without having to actually think it through and sort out the contradictions.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Ok, someone explain this to me and please, type slowly because I certainly am having trouble wrapping my head around this.
> 
> Protesters in Florida are calling this a massive government over reach and rights violation.  Ok.  Fair enough.  I disagree, but, let's say they're right.  How can they then also be marching in favor of Trump?  After all, he's the president.  If there were government over reaches and rights violations, he's the one who is doing it.
> 
> What is the logic here.  What is the A to B to C because, I'm just not seeing it.  How do you protest federal government policies at the same time support the sitting president?  How does that work?




Might also be a state mandate not federal.

Election here delayed a month since Auckland's in lockdown. Was scheduled for Sep 19.

If anyone wants to compare responses first 5 minutes maybe.

 She normally reassures and works her way up to the bad news.


----------



## Eltab

Hussar said:


> Ok, someone explain this to me and please, type slowly because I certainly am having trouble wrapping my head around this.
> 
> Protesters in Florida are calling this a massive government over reach and rights violation.  Ok.  Fair enough.  I disagree, but, let's say they're right.  How can they then also be marching in favor of Trump?  After all, he's the president.  If there were government over reaches and rights violations, he's the one who is doing it.
> 
> What is the logic here.  What is the A to B to C because, I'm just not seeing it.  How do you protest federal government policies at the same time support the sitting president?  How does that work?



The health mandates are issued by State and/or County officials, not Federal. 

And the pre-existing toxic partisanship was not set aside in the face of a new and different problem.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Protesters in Florida are calling this a massive government over reach and rights violation.  Ok.  Fair enough.  I disagree, but, let's say they're right.  How can they then also be marching in favor of Trump?  After all, he's the president.




I will warn folks about politics.  However, I think we can answer this in-bounds....

Mask mandates and stay at home orders and limits on business occupancy and all are coming from Governors and States, not the Federal Government.  They are protesting their local government action, not federal government action.


----------



## Zardnaar

Anti lockdown protest here.






Difference from last time they're having to quash social media rumors. 

Election delayed one month. Opposition played political fun and games and they plummeted in the polls (46% to 25-32%)

US playbook doesn't seem to work so well.


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> Anti lockdown protest here.
> 
> View attachment 124765
> 
> Difference from last time they're having to quash social media rumors.
> 
> Election delayed one month. Opposition played political fun and games and they plummeted in the polls (46% to 25-32%)
> 
> US playbook doesn't seem to work so well.



Sorry, I'm from America. I can't tell an anti-mask protest without at least one Trump 2020 or Don't Tread On Me sign.

To me this just looks like a group of people hanging out in a plaza.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> To me this just looks like a group of people handing out in a plaza.




I daresay it may well be.  This isn't just a poor anti-mask protest.  It is just a poor protest, in general.  If folks cannot tell what you're protesting by looking at you, there's not a whole lot of point to protesting.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

From the Texas Medical Association, a chart of relative risks of C19 exposure:





Dubai is deploying COVID-sniffing dogs at points of entry, like airports.  (Claimed accuracy rate over 90%.)








						Dubai International Airport Becomes the First to Deploy Coronavirus-sniffing Dogs
					

The coronavirus-sniffing canines are hard at work at Dubai International Airport, testing samples from travelers visiting the country. Test results, which are said to have a 92 percent accuracy rate, are returned in less than a minute.




					www.travelandleisure.com
				




Also, Israeli scientists may have developed a 95% accurate, lightning fast C19 test.  If true, this could be a profound game changer:








						In trial, Israeli gargle test gives COVID results in 1 second, at 95% accuracy
					

Championing it as instant, cheap and reliable, innovators at Israel’s largest hospital say their invention could become the world’s standard COVID screening method




					www.timesofisrael.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Istbor said:


> Sorry, I'm from America. I can't tell an anti-mask protest without at least one Trump 2020 or Don't Tread On Me sign.
> 
> To me this just looks like a group of people hanging out in a plaza.




Apparently they got 15-20 people later on.

Going for part 2 this weekend.


----------



## Haffrung

I'm not sure I agree with going to a movie being a highest risk activity. This is my experience from taking the family to Jurassic Park last week:

1. Buy tickets online.

2. Arrive at multiplex. Zero people in lobby except one staff member at the one food concession open. 

3. Walk into theatre and sit in assigned seats. Five other people are in the theatre (a group of two and a group of three), seated far away from us.

4. As movie starts, a staff member with a notepad records where we were all sitting, presumably to clean the seats after the movie.

5. Leave theatre by external exits, encountering no other people. 

All the spaces we were in had high ceilings and open space. At no point were we closer than 20 ft to any other people. I'm confident it was far safer than shopping at mall, eating at a restaurant, or going to a public pool.


----------



## billd91

Haffrung said:


> I'm not sure I agree with going to a movie being a highest risk activity. This is my experience from taking the family to Jurassic Park last week:
> 
> 1. Buy tickets online.
> 
> 2. Arrive at multiplex. Zero people in lobby except one staff member at the one food concession open.
> 
> 3. Walk into theatre and sit in assigned seats. Five other people are in the theatre (a group of two and a group of three), seated far away from us.
> 
> 4. As movie starts, a staff member with a notepad records where we were all sitting, presumably to clean the seats after the movie.
> 
> 5. Leave theatre by external exits, encountering no other people.
> 
> All the spaces we were in had high ceilings and open space. At no point were we closer than 20 ft to any other people. I'm confident it was far safer than shopping at mall, eating at a restaurant, or going to a public pool.




I think you have to read the chart with the assumption that those activities would be "as normal" rather than as socially distanced as you experienced. Normally, with a decent movie, you're going to have a lot more people in the seats and a lot closer. Same with the bar, religious services, sporting event, etc.


----------



## Haffrung

billd91 said:


> I think you have to read the chart with the assumption that those activities would be "as normal" rather than as socially distanced as you experienced. Normally, with a decent movie, you're going to have a lot more people in the seats and a lot closer. Same with the bar, religious services, sporting event, etc.




But the chart itself says "Please assume that participants in these activities are following currently recommended safety protocols when possible."


----------



## Umbran

Haffrung said:


> But the chart itself says "Please assume that participants in these activities are following currently recommended safety protocols when possible."




Currently recommended safety protocols will probably have more than 10 people in the theater.


----------



## Zardnaar

Boring economic stuff.








						Covid-19: Should NZ go Sweden's way?
					

ANALYSIS: Pundits want to see New Zealand ditch its elimination goal in favour of a Sweden-style herd immunity strategy. What would that look like?




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




Tldr

Wiping it out and using targeted lockdowns economically better than herd immunity.

Favorite picture of the day. Some idiot put a campaign sign up with Jacinda and Hitler on it.

And then proceeded to put the swastika the wrong way round on the sign. Genius.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I found this pretty interesting.  NPR looked at how contact tracing results are being presentedto the public in different states.









						14 States Make Contact Tracing Data Public. Here's What They're Learning
					

The information includes details on where transmission is happening most. If more states shared this widely, it could shape policy and save lives, health researchers say.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Imaculata

This week the Dutch prime minster announced that there has been an increase in the number of cases once again. So he advises people to not have gatherings of 6 or more people at home. No more private parties and family gatherings.

Obviously this is not something that can be enforced, and I suspect a ton of people are simply going to ignore it. And yet the mandatory self isolation duration has been shortened.

So wait, let me get this straight. Cases are on the rise, and thus we relax the rules?

The Dutch Outbreak Management Team has advised the government to reverse the relaxing of the Corona rules, but so far it doesn't look like that will be happening. There will be some local additional rules in places like Amsterdam, where there has been a steep increase of cases.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This looks promising for dealing with C19 in the long-term.








						We now have the best evidence yet that everyone develops long-term coronavirus immunity after infection — and it's not just about antibodies
					

Research shows that COVID-19 patients — including those with asymptomatic or mild cases — develop T cells that can fight the virus if it returns.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Janx

At this point, we do the social bubble thing.  Identify a few like-minded friends who generally keep decent isolation and mask wearing and visit each other.  Not 100% safe, but lower risk than what the people whining about mask wearing and ignoring the advisories are doing.  Helps keep people from going feral.


----------



## Zardnaar

Back up to 105 active cases, seems confined to Auckland. 









						Covid-19: Nine new community cases in NZ
					

There are nine new cases of Covid-19 in the community in New Zealand and two in the country's managed isolation and quarantine facilities, Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield has revealed.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Went for walk today found this.


----------



## Zardnaar

Suffering here.









						Kiwis' hilarious response to overseas critic calling locked-down NZ 'hellhole'
					

Kiwis have responded to NZ being called a 'hellhole' with wit and sarcasm.




					www.nzherald.co.nz
				




As you can see the countries falling apart.

12 days since the new cases. Peaked at 13
a day, today we had 1.

IDK of that counts as flattening the curve as the cases fluctuate each day.

But yeah mandatory qurantine this time anyway.  You get to suffer in a 4 or 5 star hotel with catering. Costs the government around $280 (US approx $ $190-200) a day per person.

They've managed to contain it in Auckland so far.


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Suffering here.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kiwis' hilarious response to overseas critic calling locked-down NZ 'hellhole'
> 
> 
> Kiwis have responded to NZ being called a 'hellhole' with wit and sarcasm.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nzherald.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As you can see the countries falling apart.
> 
> 12 days since the new cases. Peaked at 13
> a day, today we had 1.
> 
> IDK of that counts as flattening the curve as the cases fluctuate each day.
> 
> But yeah mandatory qurantine this time anyway.  You get to suffer in a 4 or 5 star hotel with catering. Costs the government around $280 (US approx $ $190-200) a day per person.
> 
> They've managed to contain it in Auckland so far.




Oh, if only we could all live in such a Hellhole. 

Meanwhile, here in Ohio....


			Ohio GOPers Draft Impeachment Articles Against Governor DeWine, Say His COVID Orders Violate 'Civil Liberties'
		

Yes, THAT's what needed!  Impeach the guy who is doing a pretty decent job of trying to keep us alive.


----------



## Garthanos

ccs said:


> Oh, if only we could all live in such a Hellhole.
> 
> Meanwhile, here in Ohio....
> 
> 
> Ohio GOPers Draft Impeachment Articles Against Governor DeWine, Say His COVID Orders Violate 'Civil Liberties'
> 
> 
> Yes, THAT's what needed!  Impeach the guy who is doing a pretty decent job of trying to keep us alive.



They want to emulate Florida I guess... with its stellar numbers


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> Oh, if only we could all live in such a Hellhole.
> 
> Meanwhile, here in Ohio....
> 
> 
> Ohio GOPers Draft Impeachment Articles Against Governor DeWine, Say His COVID Orders Violate 'Civil Liberties'
> 
> 
> Yes, THAT's what needed!  Impeach the guy who is doing a pretty decent job of trying to keep us alive.




 Derp.









						Opinion: Populism from Brexit and Trump playbooks enters New Zealand election campaign
					

Opinion - Covid-19 might have been challenging for populist governments, but that hasn't stopped populist strains emerging in the run-up to the general election, Robert Patman writes.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Hasn't worked so far. 

 7 cases today. Shrugs.


----------



## Garthanos

"To date, there are few signs that many New Zealand voters will be tempted by a politics-first, science-second approach during the Covid-19 crisis. Politicians who take this approach run the risk of a backlash."

Wish I was confidently able to say there would be a backlash here.

My county had 175 new cases last week with 3,641 total cases but only 19 deaths for the US we are still doing better than most.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> "To date, there are few signs that many New Zealand voters will be tempted by a politics-first, science-second approach during the Covid-19 crisis. Politicians who take this approach run the risk of a backlash."
> 
> Wish I was confidently able to say there would be a backlash here.
> 
> My county had 175 new cases last week with 3,641 total cases but only 19 deaths for the US we are still doing better than most.




Our two opposition leaders kinda shut up and are singing a different tune this week.

Their internal polling must be terrible they collapsed to 25-32% support, other side was polling 60-65%.

We got told there would be more cases point blank.

Honesty.








						Jacinda Ardern says 2020 has been 'frankly terrible' as Auckland lockdown extended
					

Masks made mandatory on public transport across New Zealand as coronavirus cases continue to rise




					www.google.com
				




 Point blank "2020 frankly terrible".


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> We got told there would be more cases point blank.
> 
> Honesty.



We got told it would vanish in a little bit and summer might kill it and that masks made you look weak and all kinds of miracle cures... hell our leadership even said listen to this person (who talks about demon possessions) and we have some of the best science and the most fear of it in the world.

We got told 173k dead was a "success story"


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> We got told it would vanish in a little bit and summer might kill it and that masks made you look weak and all kinds of miracle cures... hell our leadership even said listen to this person (who talks about demon possessions) and we have some of the best science and the most fear of it in the world.




Thought you said you were from a small country.

On another forum I've started a thread about do you trust your government.

I voted yes for NZ, there's one more yes vote for Japan the rest are no.
10 countries never got Covid (legit) but it's like the Survivor TV show locations (Vanuatu, Samoa, Palau, Micronesia, Cook Islands).

Jacinda got informed at 4pm, lockdown announced emergency broadcast 9:15pm.

The car was out if the bag before she announced on Reddit and if you were paying attention the previous week or two it was no surprise. Few near misses, eventually something was gonna hit.

 Took care of various things 4-5 days earlier, doctors visit, pharmacy etc. Then you just wait initial madness out and go shopping quiet times.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Thought you said you were from a small country.
> 
> On another forum I've started a thread about do you trust your government.
> 
> I voted yes for NZ, there's one more yes vote for Japan the rest are no.
> 10 countries never got Covid (legit) but it's like the Survivor TV show locations (Vanuatu, Samoa, Palau, Micronesia, Cook Islands).
> 
> Jacinda got informed at 4pm, lockdown announced emergency broadcast 9:15pm.
> 
> The car was out if the bag before she announced on Reddit and if you were paying attention the previous week or two it was no surprise. Few near misses, eventually something was gonna hit.
> 
> Took care of various things 4-5 days earlier, doctors visit, pharmacy etc. Then you just wait initial madness out and go shopping quiet times.



Surprisingly, I think in Auckland that almost everyone has fallen into the habit of lockdown in that no one is really out panic buying. Queues are short, shelves are well stocked. It's almost like everyone realised that they don't need enough toilet paper to last them until the end of the year.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Thought you said you were from a small country.



Sorry, County is a sub unit of state we are basically one moderate city the numbers I gave were for people in walking distance of my house ... the County is in the State of Nebraska in the Country of the US


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Surprisingly, I think in Auckland that almost everyone has fallen into the habit of lockdown in that no one is really out panic buying. Queues are short, shelves are well stocked. It's almost like everyone realised that they don't need enough toilet paper to last them until the end of the year.




 Yeah the panic buying didn't last long. 

 Even first time round a few things ran out but the shelves didn't get stripped. At least not here.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Sorry, County is a sub unit of state we are basically one moderate city the numbers I gave were for people in walking distance of my house ... the County is in the State of Nebraska in the Country of the US




 Oh I misread county as country. 

 If Auckland was in USA it would be 8th largest city iirc. Hawaii with 1/3rd the population as NZ and similar advantages has done worse.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> On another forum I've started a thread about do you trust your government.



The answer is about as far as I can throw it. Which can be given more meaning than it sounds. My local government is pretty good my state government stucks pretty bad and my federal government is tied up in terrifying degrees of evil and nonsense by a deranged idiot and his fan club well... the picture just isn't pretty.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> If Auckland was in USA it would be 8th largest city iirc. Hawaii with 1/3rd the population as NZ and similar advantages has done worse.




Does Aukland not have a lot of suburbs, or do the US and New Zealand count metro areas differently.

The listing I found for the city I find is 1.47 million and the metro area is 1.64 million. That would be the 8th largest city (displacing San Diego), but only the 38th largest metro area (displacing Providence). The entire North Island is listed at 3.76 million, which would put it as the 15th largest metro area in the US (displacing Seattle).

Anyway, it doesn't change how much NZ is outperforming the US on COVID containment.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> The answer is about as far as I can throw it. Which can be given more meaning than it sounds. My local government is pretty good my state government stucks pretty bad and my federal government is tied up in terrifying degrees of evil and nonsense by a deranged idiot and his fan club well... the picture just isn't pretty.




 I've never voted in local body Elections lol. Missed voting nationally once where it was a blowout year. Think we played D&D that day and forgot it was election day.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Does Aukland not have a lot of suburbs, or do the US and New Zealand count metro areas differently.
> 
> The listing I found for the city I find is 1.47 million and the metro area is 1.64 million. That would be the 8th largest city (displacing San Diego), but only the 38th largest metro area (displacing Providence). The entire North Island is listed at 3.76 million, which would put it as the 15th largest metro area in the US (displacing Seattle).
> 
> Anyway, it doesn't change how much NZ is outperforming the US on COVID containment.




Not really. NZ city sizes usually just count the main metro area.

Suburbs in NZ usually the parts if the city not in the CBD or central area.

I live in the suburbs, the CBD is about 4km away.

Technically city limits do cover surrounding area but it's mostly academic not day to day use.

I think Dunedin technically is/was bigger than Auckland but 99% of it is farmland , Bush and forest and the small towns aren't regarded as suburbs.

They're very spread out/green. Concrete jungle not so much.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> I've never voted in local body Elections lol. Missed voting nationally once where it was a blowout year. Think we played D&D that day and forgot it was election day.



I do all the voting pretty much always have but that makes me a minority in my country.


----------



## Zardnaar

Auckland from the air. 


 Not really built up the CBD area is a blip of tall buildings around 6:50 mark.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> I do all the voting pretty much always have but that makes me a minority in my country.




Difference in rates isn't that much between our countries. Yours was something like 66%, ours 75% iirc.

Oops it was 79.8% that was a good turnout though.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Difference in rates isn't that much between our countries. Yours was something like 66%, ours 75% iirc.
> 
> Oops it was 79.8% that was a good turnout though.



Presidential only every hits the 66 percent I think local is less but would have to look it up.
Also Mid terms are like 40 percent here (these do not include the President)


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Presidential only every hits the 66 percent I think local is less but would have to look it up.
> Also Mid terms are like 40 percent here




We don't have midterms but the terms are 3 vs 4 years.

Local elections turnout is abysmal I think it's something like 10-20%.

Local body very pale and male but people don't vote, the ones that do tend to be boomers. It's really easy to vote as well no one does though.

 I don't vote local but don't complain about it either.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Local elections turnout is abysmal I think it's something like 10-20%.



Ackkkkk there is terrible... midterms are when we get local and state level generally speaking a lot of things rolled into one.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Ackkkkk there is terrible... midterms are when we get local and state level generally speaking a lot of things rolled into one.




The local council's just really have to collect the trash and keep the water running.

There's no great policy or achievement they can really do. The bureaucracy runs the country for the most part.

I can only name 1 city councilor as I met him (assclown) and the major is some youngish fella who's a greenie his name eludes me atm.

14000 votes cast out of 120k people plus a few more in the surrounding area. His opponent was said ass clown and the Greens are popular at the local university and some students voted and he won with a few thousand votes.


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> On another forum I've started a thread about do you trust your government.




The further away from my local lv, the more my answer becomes NO.
And at the federal lv that no applies even when I agree with/support/like them.
The current batch on top?  To put it very mildly? I do not agree with/support/like them.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The FDA report on the benefits of convalescent plasma therapy was apparently grossly overstated according to many scientists, including those who did the study.









						FDA 'Grossly Misrepresented' Blood Plasma Data, Scientists Say
					

At a news conference Sunday announcing the emergency approval of blood plasma for hospitalized COVID-19 patients, President Donald Trump and two of his top health officials cited the same statistic: that the treatment had reduced deaths by 35%.Trump called it a "tremendous" number. His health




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Istbor

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The FDA report on the benefits of convalescent plasma therapy was apparently grossly overstated according to many scientists, including those who did the study.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FDA 'Grossly Misrepresented' Blood Plasma Data, Scientists Say
> 
> 
> At a news conference Sunday announcing the emergency approval of blood plasma for hospitalized COVID-19 patients, President Donald Trump and two of his top health officials cited the same statistic: that the treatment had reduced deaths by 35%.Trump called it a "tremendous" number. His health
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com




I have suspected as November draws near, that the US will amplify it's rush to find the silver bullet to COVID-19. It is going to be... interesting...


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The FDA report on the benefits of convalescent plasma therapy was apparently grossly overstated according to many scientists, including those who did the study.



More of trump's pushing nonsense ... anyone really expecting much after recommendations we listen to the one with a history of talking incubus/succubus possessions?

Yes the President recommend this person and it's utter insanity.


----------



## ccs

Garthanos said:


> More of trump's pushing nonsense ... anyone really expecting much after recommendations we listen to the one with a history of talking incubus/succubus possessions?
> 
> Yes the President recommend this person and it's utter insanity.




Well at least convalescent plasma therapy has some degree of credibility & limited success elsewhere to it.  It's not nonsense on the lv of drinking bleach & inserting UV light....


----------



## Garthanos

ccs said:


> Well at least convalescent plasma therapy has some degree of credibility & limited success elsewhere to it.  It's not nonsense on the lv of drinking bleach & inserting UV light....



yes its not voodoo dolls I suppose... it is from back in the 1900s


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> The local council's just really have to collect the trash and keep the water running.
> 
> There's no great policy or achievement they can really do. The bureaucracy runs the country for the most part.
> 
> I can only name 1 city councilor as I met him (assclown) and the major is some youngish fella who's a greenie his name eludes me atm.
> 
> 14000 votes cast out of 120k people plus a few more in the surrounding area. His opponent was said ass clown and the Greens are popular at the local university and some students voted and he won with a few thousand votes.



I'm not even 100% on who the mayor of Auckland is... I tend not to vote local either, I just don't have enough information for an informed vote and I tend to be too lazy to look for it.


----------



## Retreater

At my annual physical this morning, the doc said "1.5 years" until we can even start to think about normal. 
I believe her, even if I am less optimistic.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> I'm not even 100% on who the mayor of Auckland is... I tend not to vote local either, I just don't have enough information for an informed vote and I tend to be too lazy to look for it.




 Phil Goff?

 I know my mayor's face, I just don't recall his name. 

 I think mayor's in US are a bit more important with control over police.

 That's all centralized government funded here.


----------



## Zardnaar

Retreater said:


> At my annual physical this morning, the doc said "1.5 years" until we can even start to think about normal.
> I believe her, even if I am less optimistic.




 It's what I figure. One way or another things should improve end of 2021 or in 2022. 
 My panic phase lasted about two days in March, sat down with the wife and laid out what's probably gonna happen.


----------



## Hussar

Something to remember when you start comparing elections between countries is that the Americans elect EVERYONE.  NZ, like Canada, is parlimentary isn't it?  We don't even elect our PM directly.  Just vote for your local MP. 

But, we certainly don't elect our police chief, school superintendent or the host of elected positions that the Americans do.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Phil Goff?
> 
> I know my mayor's face, I just don't recall his name.
> 
> I think mayor's in US are a bit more important with control over police.
> 
> That's all centralized government funded here.



You're probably right, I know he was mayor but wasn't sure if he still was.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Something to remember when you start comparing elections between countries is that the Americans elect EVERYONE.  NZ, like Canada, is parlimentary isn't it?  We don't even elect our PM directly.  Just vote for your local MP.
> 
> But, we certainly don't elect our police chief, school superintendent or the host of elected positions that the Americans do.




 Proportional, we do vote on local MP but it doesn't matter in terms of who forms the parliament or even whose it it to some extent. 

 It pretty much just guarantees that individual makes it in.  The parties select the leaders in a variety of ways and the parties write the party lists. 

 Local MP can matter for strategic voting but that's only one Electorate atm


----------



## Eltab

Garthanos said:


> Presidential only every hits the 66 percent I think local is less but would have to look it up.
> Also Mid terms are like 40 percent here (these do not include the President)



I regularly get to read local post-midterm newspaper articles bemoaning the 20% (1 in 5) show-up-to-vote rate. 
On the plus side, I do show up and vote, so it's like my vote counts 5 times as much.
OTOH, I have to vote in uncontested elections to raise my "I voted for the winner" rate above 50% ...


----------



## Cadence

Hussar said:


> Something to remember when you start comparing elections between countries is that the Americans elect EVERYONE.  NZ, like Canada, is parlimentary isn't it?  We don't even elect our PM directly.  Just vote for your local MP.
> 
> But, we certainly don't elect our police chief, school superintendent or the host of elected positions that the Americans do.




I think most of America doesn't get to elect the police chief or local school district superintendent.  I think they do elect the county sheriff and the local school board (who picks the superintendent) and the city council and mayor  (who pick the police chief), and the county coroner and treasurer and assessor, and maybe some judges and magistrates, and then we get to the state level ...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Re: convalescent plasma therapy

This is an established treatment that has a historically shown varying degrees of effectiveness versus a wide range of pathogens.  So it’s not junk science and snake oil. 

The C19 study itself showed it does have some pronounced effects against the bug...in certain patients...within a certain time window.  The problem is the WH hype machine.  Looking beyond the small demographic group who got CPT withkn the therapeutic time window, the _overall_ positive effect of the therapy across the board was only 3-4 percentage points.

Sooooo, not a silver bullet, but also not a sham, either.  It’s a tool that will be useful to some but not all C19 patients.


----------



## Hussar

Cadence said:


> I think most of America doesn't get to elect the police chief or local school district superintendent.  I think they do elect the county sheriff and the local school board (who picks the superintendent) and the city council and mayor  (who pick the police chief), and the county coroner and treasurer and assessor, and maybe some judges and magistrates, and then we get to the state level ...




Sorry, I didn't get the exact terms right.  My point is, you guys vote for a whole host of positions that those of us who live in parliamentary countries don't.  Heck, compared to Canada, we don't vote for anyone really.  Your local MP at the federal level, your local MPP at the provincial level, and your local mayor/reeve/whatever at the municipal level.

That's it.  That's the sum total of the people we vote for in Canada.  Our senators are appointed, not elected. Our PM isn't directly elected, but is simply the leader of whatever party wins the election.  Judges?  Nope.  Police officers of any stripe?  Nope.   Vote for my school board?  Nope.  You guys elect SO MANY people.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Re: convalescent plasma therapy



The concept is also intuitively obvious even to amateurs.  One story early on in NYC featured a middle-aged recovered Corona patient who was looking for a blood bank or plasma donor organization, reasoning "I must be full of antibodies now and I want to help the folks that are still sick."

One of the tragedies of this pandemic has been seeing enthusiastic amateurs told in effect 'go home and let the experts handle this' instead of accepting their offers and finding ways they can help.


----------



## Umbran

And folks... this thread isn't about voting and government forms.  It is about gaming and a disease.

That's a sentence I don't think I ever wanted to say.  But there it is.  Can we bring it back around, please and thanks?


----------



## Cadence

Hussar said:


> Sorry, I didn't get the exact terms right.  My point is, you guys vote for a whole host of positions that those of us who live in parliamentary countries don't.  Heck, compared to Canada, we don't vote for anyone really.  Your local MP at the federal level, your local MPP at the provincial level, and your local mayor/reeve/whatever at the municipal level.




Was just trying to emphasize your point and not nit pick.     Luckily I don't think we elect dog catcher (anymore?).


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> The concept is also intuitively obvious even to amateurs.  One story early on in NYC featured a middle-aged recovered Corona patient who was looking for a blood bank or plasma donor organization, reasoning "I must be full of antibodies now and I want to help the folks that are still sick."
> 
> One of the tragedies of this pandemic has been seeing enthusiastic amateurs told in effect 'go home and let the experts handle this' instead of accepting their offers and finding ways they can help.



Well, to be fair, the techs and other personnel at blood banks aren’t necessarily thinking in those terms.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> One of the tragedies of this pandemic has been seeing enthusiastic amateurs told in effect 'go home and let the experts handle this' instead of accepting their offers and finding ways they can help.




That's not a tragedy.  That's a safeguard.

This is a common thing, not at all limited to this epidemic - folks saying, "I wanna help!" and then doing something that is not in the least bit helpful.  You see it a lot in disaster relief.  People try to donate physical goods - toilet paper, bottled water, or whatever they've seen on the internet is "what they need".  Doing that in, say, NJ, and expecting the aid organization to gather, inventory, manage, ship it cross country, and distribute random physical goods - many of which are bulky and cheap and _could be sourced near the disaster at lesser cost_ is woefully inefficient.  It is distinctly not helpful, and would increase the cost of relief efforts without increasing positive impact.  The relief organizations tell folks plainly - if you want to help, here is where you can donate.  But they still usually wind up with mounds of physical goods.

Random donation of plasma to... someone, is not helpful.  And the people at the blood bank are busy taking blood and distributing it to help surgical and injury patients.  It is not their job or their expertise to take plasma for this one specific use, and to then go looking for someone who is doing such research, who may be across the country such that shipping the plasma there is not economical, or even possible in appropriate time to keep the plasma usable.

I laud the enthusiasm.  But whether you are aiding disaster relief, covid-19 epidemic woes, or just your friend who has a health issue, your job is to _ask_ what is needed, and do that.  An amateur's preconceived notion of what is helpful is not reliably useful.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> That's not a tragedy.  That's a safeguard.
> 
> This is a common thing, not at all limited to this epidemic - folks saying, "I wanna help!" and then doing something that is not in the least bit helpful.  You see it a lot in disaster relief.  People try to donate physical goods - toilet paper, bottled water, or whatever they've seen on the internet is "what they need".  Doing that in, say, NJ, and expecting the aid organization to gather, inventory, manage, ship it cross country, and distribute random physical goods - many of which are bulky and cheap and _could be sourced near the disaster at lesser cost_ is woefully inefficient.  It is distinctly not helpful, and would increase the cost of relief efforts without increasing positive impact.  The relief organizations tell folks plainly - if you want to help, here is where you can donate.  But they still usually wind up with mounds of physical goods.
> 
> Random donation of plasma to... someone, is not helpful.  And the people at the blood bank are busy taking blood and distributing it to help surgical and injury patients.  It is not their job or their expertise to take plasma for this one specific use, and to then go looking for someone who is doing such research, who may be across the country such that shipping the plasma there is not economical, or even possible in appropriate time to keep the plasma usable.
> 
> I laud the enthusiasm.  But whether you are aiding disaster relief, covid-19 epidemic woes, or just your friend who has a health issue, your job is to _ask_ what is needed, and do that.  An amateur's preconceived notion of what is helpful is not reliably useful.




This cash is often useful.


----------



## Zardnaar

Interesting story from Aussie. 









						What it's like to fly into Australia right now
					

Quarantined in a luxury hotel room for 14 days, a CNN photojournalist shares his experiences of returning to Australia, which has some of the world's strictest Covid-19 border control measures.



					edition.cnn.com
				




 Quarantine.


----------



## Garthanos

Cadence said:


> I think most of America doesn't get to elect the police chief or local school district superintendent.



Police Chief would be great we need more reason for police to serve the citizens ... 
I am definitely picking out school district administration but they rarely seem to run opposed so it doesn't feel like it is accomplishing much


----------



## Umbran

*Mod Note:*

Let me try this again:  *This thread is not about voting or government forms.*  Please bring it back around on topic.  Thank you.


----------



## Cadence

The latest news at our University: Two USC sorority houses quarantined after students test positive for coronavirus

but everything else is chugging along:




__





						COVID-19 Dashboard - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) | University of South Carolina
					





					sc.edu
				




It feels like UofSC (35k students, 6k employees) was a bit more realistic than some campuses about expecting a sizable number of infections right about this week and next and then to hopefully hold that steady by tracing and quarantining. We'll see if they guessed that right... and hopefully don't get any deaths -- and if they'll stay open when it gets to several hundred cases at any one time.

For the courses, a lot are just on-line, and I don't think there are many that are just in person without an on-line option. Both of mine have the option (they asked folks to keep the in-class if at all possible when it looked like the feds were clamping down on international students). The room is usually 72 seat. Since it's department controlled the University itself didn't do anything about labeling the seats like it did in rooms the registrar controls, so I took out 30 desks (hid them in a lab room), put a bunch against the wall, and spaced out the capacity this semester of 25. Only 7-9 have been coming live to one, and none to the other (ventilation comes in by piping from the roof, AC is chilled water in room, and the windows open).  The spacing in some other rooms seems a foot or two less.






One of the bigger local game shops has been allowing folks to come in and play for a while.  The mostly MtG one I used to frequent has had a few evenings with a handful of tables open, but hasn't really pushed it yet.   Thank goodness for Spelltable and Discord for paper MtG and a couple different on-line options for D&D.


----------



## Retreater

Cadence said:


> One of the bigger local game shops has been allowing folks to come in and play for a while. The mostly MtG one I used to frequent has had a few evenings with a handful of tables open, but hasn't really pushed it yet. Thank goodness for Spelltable and Discord for paper MtG and a couple different on-line options for D&D.




At this point, I'm unwilling to get together for any face to face games with strangers. I am testing the waters (against my better judgment) for a face to face with my closest friends a month from now, because it will likely be a few years before we get the opportunity again (due to babies, moving to different cities, etc.) Regular game nights are something that I just am not likely to do anymore. Going to a local store to play with strangers, not going to be doing that again, probably ever. 

We aren't out of this, not by a long shot. I am luckily able to play online and have more gaming opportunities than I know what to do with. 

I have stopped following the local brewery and pubs on social media, because they are all acting like "this isn't a big deal" and it angers me. I will not go to restaurants, community concerts, etc. I do not trust the organizers, I do not trust the public.


----------



## Cadence

Retreater said:


> At this point, I'm unwilling to get together for any face to face games with strangers. I am testing the waters (against my better judgment) for a face to face with my closest friends a month from now, because it will likely be a few years before we get the opportunity again (due to babies, moving to different cities, etc.) Regular game nights are something that I just am not likely to do anymore. Going to a local store to play with strangers, not going to be doing that again, probably ever.
> 
> We aren't out of this, not by a long shot. I am luckily able to play online and have more gaming opportunities than I know what to do with.
> 
> I have stopped following the local brewery and pubs on social media, because they are all acting like "this isn't a big deal" and it angers me. I will not go to restaurants, community concerts, etc. I do not trust the organizers, I do not trust the public.




We haven't done any eating out or face-to-face visits* with others in person since March -- and mostly getting curbside instead of going in to shop and only getting carry-out food we could reheat first. (*Annual vacation to see some family in August, but they were the at risk ones, and everyone we saw had been playing safer than most and had already been seeing each other, and we didn't have any of the more distant relatives that would be over most years come by. I still angsted about it.)

While I'm certainly avoiding gaming with others now, I hope it isn't too far into the spring when it gets back down under 1% with tracing finally and/or we get a vaccine with reasonable uptake -- I'm anxious to get back to face to face gaming, eating out, happy hour, and my little one being in school and playing with friends!  I know my son is tired of us doing MtG pre-releases at home instead of with the shop regulars and the masses that just come in for those.


----------



## Retreater

Cadence said:


> I hope it isn't too far into the spring when it gets back down under 1% with tracing finally and/or we get a vaccine with reasonable uptake



I don't think the divisions of the country will allow that to happen, even if a vaccine were discovered, widely available, and adopted by enough people (which are all huge "ifs"). I'm of the negative opinion that this is the end of America, certainly as a world power. It will likely linger on as a plague state for a few years before complete collapse.


----------



## Cadence

Retreater said:


> I don't think the divisions of the country will allow that to happen, even if a vaccine were discovered, widely available, and adopted by enough people (which are all huge "ifs"). I'm of the negative opinion that this is the end of America, certainly as a world power. It will likely linger on as a plague state for a few years before complete collapse.




I wouldn't bet against you. I guess the question will be what happens when some states and/or school districts start requiring it. I'm choosing to remain cautiously optimistic. We'll see what happens in November.  I just wish there was an economic and geographical buffer between the US and Canada as a non-seriously-considering-it-yet fall-back.


----------



## Retreater

Cadence said:


> I just wish there was an economic and geographical buffer between the US and Canada as a non-seriously-considering-it-yet fall-back.



Honestly, I think you'll get it when the U.S. splits again. I don't see another way around it given the divisions in our country. 
But this is traipsing too close to political discussion on my end, so I'll end that line of thought there.
Just suffice it to say, I don't think it will become "safe" to game with strangers, attend conventions, or do any hobby gaming in years (in America). And so long as America keeps botching its response, I don't know if the rest of the world will be safe in doing it either.


----------



## Zardnaar

Gamestores open here but can't game in person atm. 

 Missed 3 sessions so far.


----------



## ccs

Retreater said:


> Just suffice it to say, I don't think it will become "safe" to game with strangers, attend conventions, or do any hobby gaming in years (in America).




With strangers?  Probably not for a good long while.  Conventions?  Definitely not for the foreseeable future.  A buddy & I nominally have GenCon penned into our 2021 schedule, but we'll just have to see what things look like a year from now on that.

ANY hobby gaming (in America) though?  That's stretching it a bit.  
In my group?  Pretty much the riskiest thing any of us are doing is hitting the grocery store every few weeks.  Still alive, not sick....

+ There's no-one protesting/marauding in our area, we're not in a warzone, there's no nuclear fallout ash, no zombies, and - if you want to believe the Govt. #s - the areas Covid #s are fairly low. 
So we figure we're pretty safe getting together for pizza, beer, & a game or two each week.
Now were any of those conditions to change....


----------



## Retreater

ccs said:


> + There's no-one protesting/marauding in our area, we're not in a warzone, there's no nuclear fallout ash, no zombies, and - if you want to believe the Govt. #s - the areas Covid #s are fairly low.
> So we figure we're pretty safe getting together for pizza, beer, & a game or two each week.
> Now were any of those conditions to change....



Part of it is our decision to go all virtual is my wife's. She considers herself a member of the at-risk population. Both of us also work in fairly high contact fields with exposure to a lot of kids and families. The other considerations are a player who already has high anxiety about in-person interactions (agorophobia?), people who have to commute an hour to come to the game (convenience factors?), the fact that automation really helps in the systems we play, and that we're able to game much more frequently because of our work schedules (playing on weeknights for a few hours instead of committing to big biweekly games on the weekend). 
What I miss the most is the casual hangouts, the character-based interactions (it pretty much devolves into all combat on a grid when we do the VTT), and the tactile feel of miniatures and terrain I've amassed and painted. 
But the safety of all concerned, the convenience of more regular games, etc., all outweigh the other aspects for now.


----------



## Umbran

ccs said:


> ANY hobby gaming (in America) though?  That's stretching it a bit.




I have a small (4-person) D&D group I play with.  We span only two houses, and are all doing proper social distancing and the like.  In my area case numbers came down around the 4th of July, and since then we've been meeting in a back yard, with proper distance between us.  As the daytime temperatures drop below 70F or so, we'll have to go back to Roll20, I expect.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I have a small (4-person) D&D group I play with.  We span only two houses, and are all doing proper social distancing and the like.  In my area case numbers came down around the 4th of July, and since then we've been meeting in a back yard, with proper distance between us.  As the daytime temperatures drop below 70F or so, we'll have to go back to Roll20, I expect.



Or play around a campfire...


----------



## Zardnaar

Lives vs economy false choice it seems. 





__





						Saving lives or UK economy from Covid a 'false choice', MPs warn | Coronavirus | The Guardian
					

Study finds UK has one of highest excess death rates with worst projected hit to economy




					amp.theguardian.com


----------



## Hussar

Welp, just got my marching orders.  My next half uni classes will be taught through Zoom again.  It's a bit weird to be honest.  The kids are all back in school - elementary through high school - but the universities are all over the place.  Fortunately my uni was a bit ahead of the curve and had already had an online learning platform in place (Moodle) which meant that switching to purely online classes wasn't a huge jump.

On the plus side, despite the schools being open for the past three months, there haven't been large outbreaks in the country.  But, they are doing pretty well - students are wearing their masks, rooms are being kept open (that's standard anyway, many of the schools here lack air conditioning anyway) and they're being pretty careful about distancing and stuff.


----------



## Cadence

They just updated our University stats through Tuesday (school has 35k students if they were all here, 6k staff).  97 new cases that one day (bringing the total active cases to 189).   The positive rate for students from 8/21 to 8/25 was 8.8% (1,754 tested)  and 0% for employees (181 tested).     12.6% of the on campus quarantine space is currently in use.  COVID-19 Dashboard - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) | University of South Carolina

Article in the local paper quotes the university president as saying:

In a town hall with students and parents, university president Bob Caslen said that given the rate of positive tests the school observed in students who stayed on campus over the summer, these latest figures were “predicted.”

“We recognize it is also serious, but it is in line with what he had predicted and what he had planned for. And quite frankly at 189 (active cases), we’re very fortunate that we’re not seeing numbers that some of our other peer universities and campuses are seeing,” Caslen said.

He warned, however, that off-campus parties were still an issue — USC officials were called and helped break up four parties at the Granby Mills apartment complex this weekend, Caslen said.

 “If you are found in an investigation to have hosted a party, you will be suspended. And if you are found in an investigation to have broken isolation or quarantine, you will be suspended. And we’re very serious about that, and based on due process, if that’s the situation, we will take that appropriate action,” Caslen warned.

https://www.thestate.com/article245278745.html  (possible pay wall).


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> They just updated our University stats through Tuesday (school has 35k students if they were all here, 6k staff).  97 new cases that one day (bringing the total active cases to 189).   The positive rate for students from 8/21 to 8/25 was 8.8% (1,754 tested)  and 0% for employees (181 tested).     12.6% of the on campus quarantine space is currently in use.  COVID-19 Dashboard - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) | University of South Carolina
> 
> Article in the local paper quotes the university president as saying:
> 
> In a town hall with students and parents, university president Bob Caslen said that given the rate of positive tests the school observed in students who stayed on campus over the summer, these latest figures were “predicted.”
> 
> “We recognize it is also serious, but it is in line with what he had predicted and what he had planned for. And quite frankly at 189 (active cases), we’re very fortunate that we’re not seeing numbers that some of our other peer universities and campuses are seeing,” Caslen said.
> 
> He warned, however, that off-campus parties were still an issue — USC officials were called and helped break up four parties at the Granby Mills apartment complex this weekend, Caslen said.
> 
> “If you are found in an investigation to have hosted a party, you will be suspended. And if you are found in an investigation to have broken isolation or quarantine, you will be suspended. And we’re very serious about that, and based on due process, if that’s the situation, we will take that appropriate action,” Caslen warned.
> 
> https://www.thestate.com/article245278745.html  (possible pay wall).




 Your University has more cases than my country. Damn.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Your University has more cases than my country. Damn.




Dude, over here we have _a million more_ cases of Covid-19 than you have people in your entire country!


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> Dude, over here we have _a million more_ cases of Covid-19 than you have people in your entire country!




I'm presuming my University is a lot smaller than his country though :-(


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> I'm presuming my University is a lot smaller than his country though :-(




Your university's population would make it one of the top 15 urban areas in his country.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Your university's population would make it one of the top 15 urban areas in his country.




Wouldn't be to far off it falls off hard outside of 1-6 locations.

 My university only 20k.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> Your university's population would make it one of the top 15 urban areas in his country.






Zardnaar said:


> Wouldn't be to far off it falls off hard outside of 1-6 locations.




Our state only has 263k more people than NZ (about 5% off) so that's pretty close.  For yesterday:

SC:  44 new death reports (2,573 total),  605 new case reports (60,089 reported active - but not sure I trust that, and the testing is pretty sparse)
NZ: 0 new deaths (22 total), 5 new cases (134 reported active)

Blech. If the US booted SC (and no other states), we'd have been the 18th most deaths in a country yesterday (just below Spain). And a huge chunk of the state doesn't take it seriously.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Coronavirus cases linked to Sturgis Motorcycle Rally found in 8 states
					

More than 100 cases have been found in Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming and the Dakotas.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## Cadence

Three more frat/sorority houses under quarantine at my University (making 5 total) - Three additional Greek Village houses at UofSC quarantined due to COVID


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Coronavirus cases linked to Sturgis Motorcycle Rally found in 8 states
> 
> 
> More than 100 cases have been found in Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming and the Dakotas.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com



I wish I could say that I was surprised, but I really am not. Stupids gonna stupid.


----------



## Deset Gled

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I wish I could say that I was surprised, but I really am not. Stupids gonna stupid.




These days there are many times when I wonder "who's going to get sued for this BS?", but the Sturgis rally has me particularly eager for the first suit to land.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Three more frat/sorority houses under quarantine at my University (making 5 total) - Three additional Greek Village houses at UofSC quarantined due to COVID




I follow the BBC and Reuters but they don't cover the local stuff so well.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> I follow the BBC and Reuters but they don't cover the local stuff so well.




I'd be kind of worried if they covered all of the top 100 or so Universities in the US regularly


----------



## Cadence

Well, my post a while ago with news from this morning didn't age well.  Today's afternoon announcement doubled the number of cases on campus (191 new ones) and had four frat/sor organizations suspended (in addition to the five previously quarantined).  If it keeps up they'll go all virtual.  Which won't do that much since 80% of the students live off campus.









						USC develops closing plans after COVID-19 cases double: 'Will pull the plug if I have to'
					

University of South Carolina President Bob Caslen has asked his staff to consider closing the state's largest college after COVID-19 cases doubled in a day.




					www.postandcourier.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Well, my post a while ago with news from this morning didn't age well.  Today's afternoon announcement doubled the number of cases on campus (191 new ones) and had four frat/sor organizations suspended (in addition to the five previously quarantined).  If it keeps up they'll go all virtual.  Which won't do that much since 80% of the students live off campus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> USC develops closing plans after COVID-19 cases double: 'Will pull the plug if I have to'
> 
> 
> University of South Carolina President Bob Caslen has asked his staff to consider closing the state's largest college after COVID-19 cases doubled in a day.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.postandcourier.com




Damn. 

 5 new cases, 7 in qurantine via overseas returnees. 

 Slowly driving the curve towards 0 again, figure another month.

 Aucklands coming out of level 3 lockdown this weekend I think.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Damn.
> 
> 5 new cases, 7 in qurantine via overseas returnees.
> 
> Slowly driving the curve towards 0 again, figure another month.
> 
> Aucklands coming out of level 3 lockdown this weekend I think.




Lockdown? We've got one of the two counties, and four of the five biggest cities in the other, with mask ordinances... that could get you something like a $25 fine if they actually enforce it.  :-/


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Lockdown? We've got one of the two counties, and four of the five biggest cities in the other, with mask ordinances... that could get you something like a $25 fine if they actually enforce it.  :-/
> 
> View attachment 125187




 One lady just got 14 days jail breaking quarantine.





Quite like this.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Lives vs economy false choice it seems.



Yes take fast appropriate response to the pandemic and the economy barely burps.  Hedge things around like some morally bankrupt idiot who doesn't believe in science and both go down the tubes.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

In almost every discipline, prevention is easier and cheaper than remediation.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Yes, mitigation is better than dealing with a disaster (like this one).


----------



## Cadence

And it keeps getting worse.  210 new cases yesterday, bringing total active cases on campus to 553 and employees up to 4.  On campus quarantine space is 35.1% filled. The student positive rate was 13.4%, but I'm guessing a lot of those were folks chosen through contact tracing.


----------



## cbwjm

It's a difficult time for universities. Students still want to progress their degree, universities still want to teach their courses. Some can easily make the switch to online, like the majority of arts courses, but others have labs that require equipment that can't be transferred to online. 

Still most staff and students here in Auckland seem to be adapting to the changes. Many students prefer lectures to be online, but they do feel like they are missing out with online tutorials, they miss that interaction with lecturers and other students. 

Covid has actually lead to changes in teaching at the University of Auckland that will continue post covid with hybrid teaching. We we quite lucky in that we had upgraded to a more robust lecture recording system which has really helped.


----------



## Cadence

cbwjm said:


> Covid has actually lead to changes in teaching at the University of Auckland that will continue post covid with hybrid teaching. We we quite lucky in that we had upgraded to a more robust lecture recording system which has really helped.




I've been teaching online for a bunch of years now for some courses (usually live studio classroom, synchronous video, and recorded video all from the same lecture), and some of the new tech gotten just this past year has really made it easier!


----------



## Retreater

Our local schools just announced they will have all kids PreK to 8th grade return to in-person classes. Guess they buckled under the pressure from parents and the rest of the community, because there is 0 backing from science that our county (one of the biggest hit in our state) is anywhere near being in the clear. 
Stuff like this is why I doubt our country's resolve to do anything about this.
Is it better elsewhere in the world? Is anyone getting back to "normal" yet? All I've been reading are more outbreaks when people think they're out of the woods.


----------



## Cadence

Retreater said:


> Our local schools just announced they will have all kids PreK to 8th grade return to in-person classes. Guess they buckled under the pressure from parents and the rest of the community, because there is 0 backing from science that our county (one of the biggest hit in our state) is anywhere near being in the clear.
> Stuff like this is why I doubt our country's resolve to do anything about this.
> Is it better elsewhere in the world? Is anyone getting back to "normal" yet? All I've been reading are more outbreaks when people think they're out of the woods.




We live in one of the most conservative counties in South Carolina, and all the districts here gave the option of either all virtual or two-days in/three-days virtual (alternating MTh or TF).  I'm always amazed (and horrified) when other states in the US try to make us look reasonable by comparison.


----------



## Zardnaar

Retreater said:


> Our local schools just announced they will have all kids PreK to 8th grade return to in-person classes. Guess they buckled under the pressure from parents and the rest of the community, because there is 0 backing from science that our county (one of the biggest hit in our state) is anywhere near being in the clear.
> Stuff like this is why I doubt our country's resolve to do anything about this.
> Is it better elsewhere in the world? Is anyone getting back to "normal" yet? All I've been reading are more outbreaks when people think they're out of the woods.




 South Island NZ, or anywhere outside Auckland. 

 Schools, restaurants etc have been open since May. 

 Last death was April or May. 

 Mother in law's birthday tonight, going out to restaurant for it with 4 generations so grandma is coming with us. 

 It's not normal normal but probably about the closest. No D&D at gamestores but home games are fine. 

 It's not 100% risk free but they haven't found any Community spread outside Auckland.


----------



## Umbran

cbwjm said:


> It's a difficult time for universities. Students still want to progress their degree, universities still want to teach their courses. Some can easily make the switch to online, like the majority of arts courses, but others have labs that require equipment that can't be transferred to online.




There's a financial component to this as well.  Housing money is not an inconsiderable chunk of University finances.  If students aren't in the dorms, paying for housing, part of the budget goes good bye.


----------



## cbwjm

Umbran said:


> There's a financial component to this as well. Housing money is not an inconsiderable chunk of University finances. If students aren't in the dorms, paying for housing, part of the budget goes good bye.



Some Unis are worse than others. We're lucky in that we have a large amount of funding from the government, we make uo additional costs in domestic and international student fees, no international students means we have lost a fair amount. Worse in Australia though, international student fees make up to 40% of their annual budget, many aren't doing so well with large lay-offs.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Some Unis are worse than others. We're lucky in that we have a large amount of funding from the government, we make uo additional costs in domestic and international student fees, no international students means we have lost a fair amount. Worse in Australia though, international student fees make up to 40% of their annual budget, many aren't doing so well with large lay-offs.




Still some down here, idk how things are overall though.

Polytech, uni, dental school and hospital rebuild lots of government money relative to the size.

Apparently Wellington best place to be followed by Dunedin with Auckland near the bottom. In terms of economy going bottoms up.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

As someone who would be physically attending college right now if not for the pandemic, I understand that college kids want to physically be in college, for various reasons, but I'm not as stupid as the masses of college-age kids seem to be. I put my life on hold because of this pandemic, because I knew that if I didn't, people might die because of it. It's frustrating to do what human decency requires of you, and then looking and seeing thousands of people like you not doing the things they should. 

And not only is it disappointing and frustrating to see this happening, it's infuriating. The longer we have in-person colleges, the more the virus will spread. The more the virus spreads, the longer the pandemic continues. The longer the pandemic continues, the longer I cannot attend college normally. 

2020 is really quite a time to be alive.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Still some down here, idk how things are overall though.
> 
> Polytech, uni, dental school and hospital rebuild lots of government money relative to the size.
> 
> Apparently Wellington best place to be followed by Dunedin with Auckland near the bottom. In terms of economy going bottoms up.



Not surprised Auckland isn't at the top. When out walking you see a lot of small businesses closed. This 2nd lockdown was so sudden that it impacted a lot of them negatively, they had no time to prepare.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Not surprised Auckland isn't at the top. When out walking you see a lot of small businesses closed. This 2nd lockdown was so sudden that it impacted a lot of them negatively, they had no time to prepare.




Yeah they need a bit more than the wage subsidy.

Something like an emergency rent payout.

Place we're going to tonight we're busy, level 2 hit and quiet again.

 Eventually people will just stop complying or they need to close the airports to returnees. Running out of houses down here as well.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Someone I know (sorta) just revealed she, her husband and her brother in law are all recovering from C19.  All of them are in the high-risk age range.  She was completely honest with me about how they were all firmly in the “it’s a a Democratic hoax” camp until they got it.

Each one came damn near death in the hospital at least once, and now, like converts to most ideas, they are EXTREMELY vocal about how & why they changed their minds.

Stay safe, y’all.


----------



## ccs

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Someone I know (sorta) just revealed she, her husband and her brother in law are all recovering from C19.  All of them are in the high-risk age range.  She was completely honest with me about how they were all firmly in the “it’s a a Democratic hoax” camp until they got it.
> 
> Each one came damn near death in the hospital at least once, and now, like converts to most ideas, they are EXTREMELY vocal about how & why they changed their minds.
> 
> Stay safe, y’all.




180k+dead (even if some of the #s might be suspect) here in the USA alone & God knows how many more suffering is a Hell of a hoax.  
Though I'm glad they survived, I hope the converts feel sufficiently stupid.


----------



## Umbran

ccs said:


> 180k+dead (even if some of the #s might be suspect) here in the USA alone & God knows how many more suffering is a Hell of a hoax.




A lot of people have trouble accepting things they cannot see, especially when it implies they should take actions they'd rather not take, or means accepting they were wrong.  Those 180K people?  Who says they died?  How many of them have you seen with your own eyes?  I have seen none.... so maybe they don't exist at all.  Maybe the dead are a fiction.


----------



## Imaculata

@Umbran is right. Just the other day I noticed a sticker with the text that covid19 is a hoax in my neighborhood, pasted on a traffic sign... in a neighborhood that has several victims of covid19 (including my nextdoor neighbor). But the people putting up these stupid stickers and flyers with their conspiracy theories didn't bother to talk to any of those people. They might as well not exist to them. There are victims of covid all around them, but that doesn't make a difference to these conspiracy theorists, because they have their eyes firmly closed.


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Someone I know (sorta) just revealed she, her husband and her brother in law are all recovering from C19.  All of them are in the high-risk age range.  She was completely honest with me about how they were all firmly in the “it’s a a Democratic hoax” camp until they got it.
> 
> Each one came damn near death in the hospital at least once, and now, like converts to most ideas, they are EXTREMELY vocal about how & why they changed their minds.
> 
> Stay safe, y’all.



Its a meme in action "republicans have problems with things until they personally are affected"


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> A lot of people have trouble accepting things they cannot see, especially when it implies they should take actions they'd rather not take, or means accepting they were wrong.  Those 180K people?  Who says they died?  How many of them have you seen with your own eyes?  I have seen none.... so maybe they don't exist at all.  Maybe the dead are a fiction.




180k/320million means a lot of people not personally effected or know anyone who was.

They managed to get about 200 to turn out for a protest yesterday.

They used an American flag

Free speech (NZ has no constitutional right to free speech).

MAGA (Make Ardern Go Away).

Cops didn't do much but they didn't do much for BLM either or when the 4:20 crowd did a smoke in at the police station.

During the war years we had some if the strictist censorship in the allies and they used to quarantine people on offshore islands.

Maybe go back to the 1940s and revoke some tax exempt status for some churches.

 Fix stupid the hard way.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> Its a meme in action "republicans have problems with things until they personally are affected"




*Mod Note:*
Now, how about we not go down the partisan route here, so that Danny or I don't have to boot people from the thread?  Please and thank you.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

There’s a Biblical proverb that has been paraphrased many times over the centuries that applies very well to the COVID-hoax conspiracy theorists:

”There are none so blind as those who will not see.”

(Of course, they’re probably saying much the same about us, sooooo...)


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s a Biblical proverb that has been paraphrased many times over the centuries that applies very well to the COVID-hoax conspiracy theorists:
> 
> ”There are none so blind as those who will not see.”
> 
> (Of course, they’re probably saying much the same about us, sooooo...)




 I'm reasonably sure there's some quotes and anecdotes in there about plague as well.


----------



## Retreater

Zardnaar said:


> I'm reasonably sure there's some quotes and anecdotes in there about plague as well.



If it was written before modern science and germ theory, it shouldn't be used as a source for policy during a pandemic. Unfortunately, I live in a theocracy ruled by people who do literally want to see the end of the world.


----------



## Zardnaar

Retreater said:


> If it was written before modern science and germ theory, it shouldn't be used as a source for policy during a pandemic. Unfortunately, I live in a theocracy ruled by people who do literally want to see the end of the world.




 I think there's something in there about social distancing.


----------



## Cadence

The Pandemic and a High Elf Druid get Ask Amy to address D&D: Ask Amy: It's at the bottom of this link, or see excerpt below.




	
		Dear Amy: I'm glad you are suggesting online games for people to play to keep in touch with others during this pandemic. Please include the game Dungeons and Dragons, which has made a re-emergence in the last few years.

There are many different platforms for people to play online with other people. You can find beginner groups where an experienced game or dungeon master can help you establish your game or even lead your game. There are online videos to teach you the rules and how to play and build characters.

It's a great way to meet new people, have a lot of fun, and use creative and strategic skills.

Many famous people have been opening up about playing Dungeons and Dragons for years. Even Dame Judi Dench has been known to play while on movie sets! — Elanorel, High Elf Druid
		
	




	
		Dear High Elf Druid (I’ve been waiting my entire career to address a letter thus): Thank you so much for your suggestion. If D&D entertains Dame Judi, it should be good enough for the rest of us.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Here’s an excerpt of the script from “2020“, a movie by Uwe Boll.  Screenplay by Tommy Wiseau.









						Hundreds of protesters gather against new flu vaccine mandate in Massachusetts
					

Hundreds of people gathered Sunday to protest a new flu vaccine mandate for Massachusetts students, enacted as school districts prepare to reopen during the coronavirus pandemic. At the demonstration in front of the Massachusetts State House in Boston, protesters -- some of them children -- held...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Lockdown ended today and they're failing hard at social distancing already. 









						Watch: Playful dolphins frolic with swimmers in stunning close encounter off Waiheke Island
					

Torrens Roose-Butcher captured the amazing scenes at Oneroa Beach.




					www.tvnz.co.nz


----------



## Garthanos

My county just had its third highest increase in cases last week (333) ... this due to outbreaks in University and the Prison


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Lockdown ended today and they're failing hard at social distancing already.




We had more big failures right after the two huge days of positives were reported...   






And it was picked up in the wider media... Yahoo-AU: 'Perfect storm for virus': Uni student's terrible excuse after pool party busted


----------



## Janx

Zardnaar said:


> Lockdown ended today and they're failing hard at social distancing already.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Watch: Playful dolphins frolic with swimmers in stunning close encounter off Waiheke Island
> 
> 
> Torrens Roose-Butcher captured the amazing scenes at Oneroa Beach.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tvnz.co.nz



Ah crap!  Now the dolphins are gonna get Covid.  What is wrong with people? Stay home. Stay away from dolphins. Wear your scuba mask.


----------



## Zardnaar

Janx said:


> Ah crap!  Now the dolphins are gonna get Covid.  What is wrong with people? Stay home. Stay away from dolphins. Wear your scuba mask.




 Heh you got it. 

 Pre Covid how about Orca? 


 Well apparently mask use on public transport day 1 under new rules was good. 

 $300 ($210 USD approx) fine if you don't wear one though. Voluntary doesn't work so well.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Heh you got it.
> 
> Pre Covid how about Orca?
> 
> 
> Well apparently mask use on public transport day 1 under new rules was good.
> 
> $300 ($210 USD approx) fine if you don't wear one though. Voluntary doesn't work so well.




I've been caught by needing a mask, not trying to get on a bus but I've gone for a long walk and then realised I forgot a mask and had to walk home. To be fair I probably need the exercise. I do need to get in the habit of taking a mask with me though.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> I've been caught by needing a mask, not trying to get on a bus but I've gone for a long walk and then realised I forgot a mask and had to walk home. To be fair I probably need the exercise. I do need to get in the habit of taking a mask with me though.




 Yeah we're not used to it even moreso down here. 

 I just avoid going anywhere we need them. Got used to using the phone app. 

 On Saturday night all of our family was pulling phones out of pockets to use the QR code. No one wore masks though not that we have to anyway. 

 If we had an out break would use them more. I don't think we've seen a local case since April maybe May idk. 

 Half expecting Queenstown to get some cases now.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Lockdown ended today and they're failing hard at social distancing already.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Watch: Playful dolphins frolic with swimmers in stunning close encounter off Waiheke Island
> 
> 
> Torrens Roose-Butcher captured the amazing scenes at Oneroa Beach.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tvnz.co.nz



All those poor dolphins gonna get humanitis.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

cbwjm said:


> I've been caught by needing a mask, not trying to get on a bus but I've gone for a long walk and then realised I forgot a mask and had to walk home. To be fair I probably need the exercise. I do need to get in the habit of taking a mask with me though.



I’ve found hanging one by the ear loop on a button can help.  Also, the pocket clip on a pen or telescoping pointer (another handy tool, these days) can secure a mask by the loop as well.


----------



## Zardnaar

With 1/17 the population about X4 as many cases. 









						Coronavirus: The Pacific disaster looming on New Zealand's doorstep
					

OPINION: Our Pacific neighbour has one of the fastest-growing outbreaks in the world, equivalent to the Bay of Plenty region having 465 Covid-19 cases.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 French Polynesia thought tourism was a good idea. 

 10 nation's currently Covid free. All in the Pacific (Vanuatu, Samoa, Palau, Micronesia etc).


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> I've been caught by needing a mask, not trying to get on a bus but I've gone for a long walk and then realised I forgot a mask and had to walk home. To be fair I probably need the exercise. I do need to get in the habit of taking a mask with me though.




Present for you.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Present for you.
> 
> View attachment 125347



Hopefully not going to be like Aang from avatar the last airbender. "When NZ needed him most, he vanished."


----------



## cbwjm

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’ve found hanging one by the ear loop on a button can help.  Also, the pocket clip on a pen or telescoping pointer (another handy tool, these days) can secure a mask by the loop as well.



I'm thinking of leaving some next to my wallet and phone. I never (well, hardly ever) forget those so that should remind me. The problem is that the box is in the main dining room so that the flat members can access them. When I leave, I don't typically go through there.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Yeah we're not used to it even moreso down here.
> 
> I just avoid going anywhere we need them. Got used to using the phone app.
> 
> On Saturday night all of our family was pulling phones out of pockets to use the QR code. No one wore masks though not that we have to anyway.
> 
> If we had an out break would use them more. I don't think we've seen a local case since April maybe May idk.
> 
> Half expecting Queenstown to get some cases now.



With the flood of Aucklanders resuming their holidays in Queentown, you may be right.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> With the flood of Aucklanders resuming their holidays in Queentown, you may be right.




 Yeah and if anyone gets stuck in Queenstown guess where they'll send them?


----------



## Cadence

Janx said:


> Ah crap!  Now the dolphins are gonna get Covid.  What is wrong with people? Stay home. Stay away from dolphins. Wear your scuba mask.




I read this as a joke first... but holy crap, they just might. :-/

"Reindeer, dolphins most at risk for COVID-19, study finds. What about other animals?"


			https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article245313350.html


----------



## Janx

Cadence said:


> I read this as a joke first... but holy crap, they just might. :-/
> 
> "Reindeer, dolphins most at risk for COVID-19, study finds. What about other animals?"
> 
> 
> https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article245313350.html



Sadly it was meant as a joke, though I suspected it could be an possibility.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> All those poor dolphins gonna get humanitis.




The suffix "-itis" typically means inflammation or swelling.  Like, tonsilitis is a swelling of the tonsils.

So, dolphins are going to to get "swelling of the human"?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> The suffix "-itis" typically means inflammation or swelling.  Like, tonsilitis is a swelling of the tonsils.
> 
> So, dolphins are going to to get "swelling of the human"?



Unfortunately, yes.


----------



## Hussar

Considering how ... frisky ... dolphins can be, I REALLY don't want to know what a swelling of the human looks like.


----------



## Zardnaar

Fairly unlikely the Dolphins get Covid in NZ anyway.


----------



## Zardnaar

Slowly driving the numbers down 2.0. 

Five new cases of Covid-19, three in community - Bloomfield

3 cases in community, peaked at 13. Took a week or two to flatten the curve was hitting around 9-13, then 5-9 now it's down to a handful each day. 

 No one died on round 2 kinda expecting 1-2. Didn't get into an old folks home this time around. 

 If there's no more flair ups about a month to eliminate I suppose. Probably 2 more weeks of level 2.


----------



## Cadence

On campus quarantine space 60% full... and that's an ugly positive rate for the last 3 days...


----------



## Cadence

A weekly update of the situation in the US (number crunching by a cousin using the values at covidtracking.com).  Plots are 7-day smoothed running averages, and the five regions are within a few million of each other, from 62.8 million in West Central to 67 milllion in North Central).


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Treatable, but not trivial:









						Penn State athletic doctor clarifies myocarditis comments, issues apology for causing 'confusion'
					

Penn State's director of athletic medicine relayed the data in a meeting with the school board this week.




					sports.yahoo.com


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Treatable, but not trivial:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Penn State athletic doctor clarifies myocarditis comments, issues apology for causing 'confusion'
> 
> 
> Penn State's director of athletic medicine relayed the data in a meeting with the school board this week.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sports.yahoo.com




There isn't a thing we learn about COVID-19 that isn't really effing scary. But this does underscore the fact that the Big 10 acted in their athletes' best interests (for once) in putting off the fall season (and further shame on Nebraska, Iowa, and Ohio State - sorry - THE Ohio State for voting against the postponement).


----------



## Garthanos

Cadence said:


> A weekly update of the situation in the US (number crunching by a cousin using the values at covidtracking.com).  Plots are 7-day smoothed running averages, and the five regions are within a few million of each other, from 62.8 million in West Central to 67 milllion in North Central).



So many deaths in the yellow and so few tests...


----------



## Zardnaar

1 case yesterday in the community. Looks like it's contained.

If these travel bubble go ahead with the islands next year thinking of sitting out winter in Rarotonga or Fiji/Palau.

Apparently Mongolia has done well.


----------



## cbwjm

Sucks but NZ has had another death, man in his 50s at Middlemore hospital in Auckland.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Sucks but NZ has had another death, man in his 50s at Middlemore hospital in Auckland.




Youngest one yet, previous was 62. First death since May iirc.

Edit. 98 days.

3 more community cases, 2 in qurantine.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Youngest one yet, previous was 62. First death since May iirc.
> 
> Edit. 98 days.



The US has head plenty much younger and 3 of the deaths in my city are younger than that (though none under 40 here so far)


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> The US has head plenty much younger and 3 of the deaths in my city are younger than that (though none under 40 here so far)





Starting to become a bit surreal. Hawaii with 1/3rd the population, island, Polynesians had 9000 cases.

Roughly same population as Auckland. We're roughly 1000 miles from Auckland apart from job losses it's not really a thing


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Starting to become a bit surreal. Hawaii with 1/3rd the population, island, Polynesians had 9000 cases.
> 
> Roughly same population as Auckland. We're roughly 1000 miles from Auckland apart from job losses it's not really a thing



The state of Florida  a place I used to live...  all by itself has worse numbers than most countries in the world AND yesterday had more deaths than my entire state has had the entire duration.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> The state of Florida  a place I used to live...  all by itself has worse numbers than most countries in the world AND yesterday had more deaths than my entire state has had the entire duration.




 It's Florida.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> It's Florida.



It's Governor is a close follower of the one propagating nonsense and miracle cures in DC


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> It's Governor is a close follower of the one propagating nonsense and miracle cures in DC




I was trying to be polite.


----------



## Cadence

Idiocy at a local bar (not too far from FL, just GA in between us and them).  The video at the top is something else, but there's one in a tweet in the middle of the article.  A friend who saw the video noted that the misting fan blowing on everyone seems like a nice touch... for maximizing spread.


			https://www.thestate.com/news/local/article245489815.html
		



The University has rented rooms in a local hotel to add more quarantine space.








						University adds quarantine rooms, talks about quarantine process
					

The university has again added quarantine and isolation rooms, bringing the total number of beds to 560, Stacey Bradley, the senior associate vice president for student affairs and academic support, said.




					www.dailygamecock.com
				




And Saliva testing is paused because a lab staffer became sick


			https://www.thestate.com/news/local/education/article245463325.html


----------



## Cadence

Our university apparently waits until close of day Friday to update our University dashboard (I think the capacity % is given new rooms they just acquired from a hotel).


----------



## Eltab

Based on discussion above and national news stories (and a family member's very different experience at a small college), I can see colleges with off-campus housing to tell those students to move on-campus ... where some adults can keep an eye on them.

I expect crackdowns on "Party U" fraternities / sororities, presently followed by "campus is dry" policies for student housing.


----------



## ccs

Eltab said:


> Based on discussion above and national news stories (and a family member's very different experience at a small college), I can see colleges with off-campus housing to tell those students to move on-campus ... where some adults can keep an eye on them.
> 
> I expect crackdowns on "Party U" fraternities / sororities, presently followed by "campus is dry" policies for student housing.




Except that there's places doing the exact opposite of that & closing housing as dorms & on-campus housing become infected.

So all you'll have is a chaotic mess with people dashing back & forth....


----------



## Cadence

Eltab said:


> Based on discussion above and national news stories (and a family member's very different experience at a small college), I can see colleges with off-campus housing to tell those students to move on-campus ... where some adults can keep an eye on them.




I'd guess most large campuses only have room for something like 1/3rd to 1/2 of their student body on campus - so there's no place to move them too...




ccs said:


> Except that there's places doing the exact opposite of that & closing housing as dorms & on-campus housing become infected.
> 
> So all you'll have is a chaotic mess with people dashing back & forth....




Here so far they have room to quarantine folks on campus (who lived their already) and not send them home.  The folks off campus are supposed to quarantine themselves (I bet we can all guess how well that will work).


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

In case you missed it, POTUS’ latest “outsider“ medical expert, Dr. Atlas, is a radiologist who favors herd immunity...and gets some of his stats from the same  place Trump does- from thin air.  Get your salt licks ready, you’re going to need many grains.



> Atlas said a better comparison was of “excess mortality,” a measure of how many more people died during a period of time than had been expected to, based on historical patterns.
> 
> “Europe has done 38 percent worse than the United States in excess mortality,” he said. “No one talks about this.”
> 
> Trump and Republicans have repeatedly asserted in recent weeks that excess mortality in Europe is 40 percent higher than that in the United States. The principal problem with this assertion is that it is not true. Trump appears to have simply made up the statistic, and a fact check of the claim by the Annenberg Public Policy Center found it to be false.
> 
> It is not clear where the 38 percent figure cited by Atlas comes from.











						Trump's new coronavirus adviser uses made-up statistics and false claims to praise White House pandemic response
					

In recent days, Dr. Scott Atlas has eclipsed Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx as Trump’s most visible, and presumably trusted, coronavirus adviser.




					www.yahoo.com
				












						President Trump's New COVID-19 Adviser Is Making Public Health Experts Nervous
					

Dr. Scott Atlas is a radiologist from Stanford with some unorthodox ideas about managing the pandemic. The White House says his thinking is just what's needed, but scientists aren't so sure.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

An interesting hypothesis that, if true, unlocks some potential treatment (not cures) for several of C19’s symptoms.








						A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged
					

A closer look at the Bradykinin hypothesis




					elemental.medium.com


----------



## gepetto

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In case you missed it, POTUS’ latest “outsider“ medical expert, Dr. Atlas, is a radiologist who favors herd immunity...and gets some of his stats from the same  place Trump does- from thin air.  Get your salt licks ready, you’re going to need many grains.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Trump's new coronavirus adviser uses made-up statistics and false claims to praise White House pandemic response
> 
> 
> In recent days, Dr. Scott Atlas has eclipsed Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx as Trump’s most visible, and presumably trusted, coronavirus adviser.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> President Trump's New COVID-19 Adviser Is Making Public Health Experts Nervous
> 
> 
> Dr. Scott Atlas is a radiologist from Stanford with some unorthodox ideas about managing the pandemic. The White House says his thinking is just what's needed, but scientists aren't so sure.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org





Except that IS true. Our average age of covid death is 78. Average life expectancy is 78.5 here. Pretty much everyone who it got was going to die this year anyway and its only costing half a year of life on average. 

Nearly everyone who is killed or seriously harmed is in thier 70s or later with 2 or more serious co-morbities.

If not for media hype causing government over reactions nobody would have even noticed there was a new flu virus here. The actual viruses impact on the life of the average person would have been less then that of a normal flu season.


----------



## Garthanos

gepetto said:


> Pretty much everyone who it got was going to die this year anyway and its only costing half a year of life on average.



50 percent of the deaths in my county alone are 20 years below expected life span your numbers are BS.

Language, please.


----------



## Cadence

gepetto said:


> Except that IS true. Our average age of covid death is 78. Average life expectancy is 78.5 here. Pretty much everyone who it got was going to die this year anyway and its only costing half a year of life on average.
> 
> Nearly everyone who is killed or seriously harmed is in thier 70s or later with 2 or more serious co-morbities.
> 
> If not for media hype causing government over reactions nobody would have even noticed there was a new flu virus here. The actual viruses impact on the life of the average person would have been less then that of a normal flu season.




We wouldn't have noticed somewhere between 105,000 to 220,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19... and that's after shutting things down!?!

(Excess death #s at Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 )


----------



## Garthanos

Cadence said:


> We wouldn't have noticed somewhere between 105,000 to 220,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19... and that's after shutting things down?
> 
> (Excess death #s at Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 )




Yup 18 percent higher than normal and that includes the effect of reducing contact ... places without doing that get about 5 times the deaths as those that do it fairly well... it would be more like twice as many deaths as typical in a given year without doing something.

Bad bad math


----------



## Cadence

gepetto said:


> nobody would have even noticed




But once you do notice...
From Officer Down Memorial Page for the United States for 2020


----------



## Garthanos

Pretending we don't have a national disaster only makes things worse.


----------



## Zardnaar

QR codes in businesses. Basically use it whenever you go somewhere.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> QR codes in businesses. Basically use it whenever you go somewhere.
> View attachment 125626



My covid diary seems to be mostly cafes. Nice when sign in works straight away, other times it takes a while and you need to move your phone around until the angle is just right.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> My covid diary seems to be mostly cafes. Nice when sign in works straight away, other times it takes a while and you need to move your phone around until the angle is just right.




We only really go out for family dinners, well breakfast today.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> We only really go out for family dinners, well breakfast today.




Done carryout or drive through (things we could reheat at home)... but haven't actually eaten in a restaurant since middle of March.  :-(


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Done carryout or drive through (things we could reheat at home)... but haven't actually eaten in a restaurant since middle of March.  :-(




Covid barely got here last time round. 
 Wife's family whenever someone has a birthday they pick a restaurant.

 Including partners it means we tend to go out every month for an event and we tend to dine out every 2-4 weeks.

Students keep things very cheap. $15-25 gets you something very nice.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Covid barely got here last time round.




I eagerly await it going down here so we can start doing it again!  On the other hand, our household budget is doing great eating at home.


----------



## Umbran

gepetto said:


> Except that IS true. Our average age of covid death is 78. Average life expectancy is 78.5 here. Pretty much everyone who it got was going to die this year anyway and its only costing half a year of life on average.




That is an almost a perfectly incorrect reading of the statistics.

The truth of the matter can be better seen when you look at Excess Deaths - deaths per week above what is expected for the period.  Starting in April, the US has had 5% or more deaths per week than is expected - often more like 25% more.  The below graph is from the CDC, and shows weekly deaths in the US back to the start of 2017.  Anything above the red line is, statistically speaking, clearly in excess.  There's a peak back around Jan 2018, with the swine flu that season.  And then you see a whole lot starting in April 2020.  

So, it is pretty clear that we have a whole bunch of people dying this year that _would not otherwise have died_.  We are currently 200,000+ in excess deaths already, and the year isn't done yet.


----------



## Warpiglet-7

It sucks.  We have not done any D&D.  I played with my kid—-did a few encounters and made his character but that is it.

I won’t get political and don’t care what other people do.  I really don’t! Until it effects others.

went to a game store, masked up, socially distanced.  Hand sanitizer after I walked out.  Take the pain now people.  It won’t be forever unless we make it forever.

I’m in the US.  Pretty conservative honestly but reality is reality. I work in a healthcare setting and I see the positive results and talk with the doctors myself.  Unless my colleagues are all in a secret society I don’t know about this sh*t is real and not good.

we probably should get savvy with the online D&D for a while...


----------



## billd91

gepetto said:


> Except that IS true. Our average age of covid death is 78. Average life expectancy is 78.5 here. Pretty much everyone who it got was going to die this year anyway and its only costing half a year of life on average.




That is not how life expectancy works.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

gepetto said:


> Except that IS true. Our average age of covid death is 78. Average life expectancy is 78.5 here. Pretty much everyone who it got was going to die this year anyway and its only costing half a year of life on average.
> 
> Nearly everyone who is killed or seriously harmed is in thier 70s or later with 2 or more serious co-morbities.
> 
> If not for media hype causing government over reactions nobody would have even noticed there was a new flu virus here. The actual viruses impact on the life of the average person would have been less then that of a normal flu season.



Besides the fact that you're minimizing the 188,000+ American deaths that have happened in 8 months, you're also incorrect about this being overreaction.

This virus can permanently damage your heart, lungs, and brain. This virus is much more fatal than the flu, and the pandemic has caused much, much more damage to the average person than a flu season would.

(Also, the word is comorbidity, and people with other conditions have no less of a right to live. I've had trouble breathing my whole life, and that doesn't make me any less valuable to society.)

Edit: I forgot to point out that the permanent damage to heart, lungs, and brain are in cases where you are *asymptomatic*. This effects/can effect *everyone *who is infected.


----------



## Garthanos

Last week we had more cases than any week prior in my county ... it's definitely getting worse.


----------



## ccs

gepetto said:


> Except that IS true. Our average age of covid death is 78. Average life expectancy is 78.5 here. Pretty much everyone who it got was going to die this year anyway and its only costing half a year of life on average.
> 
> Nearly everyone who is killed or seriously harmed is in thier 70s or later with 2 or more serious co-morbities.
> 
> If not for media hype causing government over reactions nobody would have even noticed there was a new flu virus here. The actual viruses impact on the life of the average person would have been less then that of a normal flu season.




Awful lotta extra dead people outside typical flu seasons all over the world all at once....
Bunches of survivors with all manner of ongoing new problems they didn't have before....

I think it'd get noticed.


----------



## Hussar

We had a spike at the beginning of August, no particular reason why, but, things have been trending downwards again on a weekly basis.  It's entirely possible due to better testing.  No one really seems to know.  But, again, our schools have been open this whole time (other than a week or so off in August) and, other than masking, virtually no government lockdown.

People just actually doing their due diligence.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> We had a spike at the beginning of August, no particular reason why, but, things have been trending downwards again on a weekly basis.  It's entirely possible due to better testing.  No one really seems to know.  But, again, our schools have been open this whole time (other than a week or so off in August) and, other than masking, virtually no government lockdown.
> 
> People just actually doing their due diligence.




Think schools closed about 5 weeks here. 

That approach won't work so well elsewhere. Cultural reasons (you can't tell me what to do).

6 months ago found out we make a type of ventilator. Turns out they're the ones that are better to use vs entubing ones. 








						F & P Healthcare's making millions and saving lives
					

The New Zealand company making the machines keeping Covid patients alive is cashing in big-time from the pandemic, but says it also feels huge responsibility.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This will be interesting:








						A Brooklyn couple was pulled off a New York City ferry in handcuffs after they refused to wear masks
					

The husband and wife were issued summonses for disorderly conduct after refusing the captain's orders to put on a mask or disembark, the NYPD said.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




In order to prevail in a lawsuit against the ferry, they will have to prove that they had some kind of condition that prevents them from wearing masks.  Seeing as how they refused to do so when that revelation would have prevented the arrest, I’m not sure this one will see the other side of a dismissal.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This will be interesting:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Brooklyn couple was pulled off a New York City ferry in handcuffs after they refused to wear masks
> 
> 
> The husband and wife were issued summonses for disorderly conduct after refusing the captain's orders to put on a mask or disembark, the NYPD said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In order to prevail in a lawsuit against the ferry, they will have to prove that they had some kind of condition that prevents them from wearing masks.  Seeing as how they refused to do so when that revelation would have prevented the arrest, I’m not sure this one will see the other side of a dismissal.




I am also curious how this will play with HIPAA.  The whole "became verbally abusive toward passengers and crew members" may be enough to work around it.  But AFAIK, the act of claiming "I have a medical condition" without providing proof of said condition hasn't made it's way through the courts yet.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> I am also curious how this will play with HIPAA.  The whole "became verbally abusive toward passengers and crew members" may be enough to work around it.  But AFAIK, the act of claiming "I have a medical condition" without providing proof of said condition hasn't made it's way through the courts yet.



Because HIPAA doesn’t apply at all.  Anyone trying to assert a HIPPA claim in court as a defense against a masking order will quickly hear a gavel come down after the other side asks for a directed verdict, accompanied by the judge’s comment,  “It is so ordered.”

HIPAA prevents anyone from disclosing a person’s medical conditions without that person’s permission or knowledge or the permission or consent of their legal guardian or representative.  It doesn’t mean the patient can’t be asked to disclose a medical condition.

Furthermore, HIPPA expressly permits the _involuntary_ disclosure of private health information for 12 reasons:

When required by law
Public health activities
Victims of abuse or neglect or domestic violence
Health oversight activities
Judicial and administrative proceedings
Law enforcement
Functions (such as identification) concerning deceased persons
Cadaveric organ, eye, or tissue donation
Research, under certain conditions
To prevent or lessen a serious threat to health or safety
Essential government functions
Workers compensation
1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 & 10 could all apply in a public health crisis such as the C19 pandemic.

Those who assert otherwise are either confused as to the nature and purpose of the law or are telling big fat ones.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> HIPAA prevents anyone from disclosing a person’s medical conditions without that person’s permission or knowledge or the permission or consent of their legal guardian or representative.  It doesn’t mean the patient can’t be asked to disclose a medical condition.




Yes.  Misunderstanding HIPPA is right up there with misunderstanding the 1st Amendment.

The idea is that your doctor, or someone else with a legitimate use for your medical data, cannot release that data to a third party without consent.  So, for example, the people who make your physicians records-management software can't go selling patient data to Google.  

If you are trying to claim special status, you have to disclose what gives you that status.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> _Good stuff_




To start with by laying this out on the table, I 100% agree that these people should be locked up, and that law enforcement should be able to enforce mask laws.  I also don't believe these people actually had a medical condition that would prevent them from wearing masks, and I personally do not really believe there is any medical condition that prevents someone from wearing a mask.  I totally and completely _want _things to play out exactly as you describe them.  That being said, I do not have the faith in the legal system that you do.  

The basic problem, IMNHO, is that once someone says "I have a medical condition" I think the law is on their side that they don't have to provide information with what that condition is.  Specifically addressing your reasons:

1.  I don't know that the laws in question require disclosure.  The one in PA (where I live) was a governor's decree, definitely doesn't include provisions for it.  People are required to disclose things like abuse and gun shot wounds, but there is no language in the mask mandates about disclosure of  conditions.  I don't know what laws would apply on a boat in NY.

2. 4. 5. and 7.  To the best of my knowledge these are exceptions that deal with a health care provider turning over information to law enforcement.  In this case, there was no care provider being questioned, so they wouldn't be applicable.  Now, if the people had said "I have a condition, I'm being treated at XYZ Doctor's office for it", this would allow the cops to check with the doctor.  But there's nothing requiring the people to give this information.

7. and 10. Are the ones that would really apply in this case.  The problematic part is that everything I have read about this (IANAL) uses the term "imminent threat".  E.g, the medical issue must be imminent threatening others.  If the people who refuse to mask are asymptomatic, I don't know if they could legally be considered an imminent threat (again, my personal opinion differing from the law).  Also, statements from certain high profile government officials might lend credence to the threat not being so imminent.

Furthermore, in PA there are actually laws that protect you from requiring disclose your medical conditions.  The cases that I know of are are probably based on ADA requirements rather than HIPAA, but I know that establishments are specifically not allowed to ask people about medical conditions with regards to service dogs or wheelchairs.  Basically, an establishment cannot bar you from using medically required aids and is extremely limited in what questions they can ask about them; they can ask what service or needs you have, but are expressly barred from asking you what the underlying medical condition is.  I don't know if the same laws that protect people who are using medical aids could protect people who refuse to use medical aids.

At the end of the day, I'm really curious because I don't know of any case law yet that actually upholds these mask laws.  In every case that I've seen locally, the real charge is for trespassing or disturbing the peace, or something similar.  I really want to see a case about mask laws make it through the legal system to see how it plays out.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> ... I personally do not really believe there is any medical condition that prevents someone from wearing a mask.




There are some.  A mask may be contraindicated for someone with emphysema, asthma, or COPD, for example. However, such people are _also_ at significantly higher risk if they happen to get covid-19, and probably should not be out in crowds these days anyway.  

And, if they can spare the breath to yell at you about it... they probably don't have such a condition.  :/



> That being said, I do not have the faith in the legal system that you do.




I think Danny's point was that _HIPPA, specifically_ does not apply as a defense.



> The basic problem, IMNHO, is that once someone says "I have a medical condition" I think the law is on their side that they don't have to provide information with what that condition is.




In general, if you want special treatment for a condition, you do need to provide proof you have that condition.  Just _claiming_ it is not sufficient.  



> Furthermore, in PA there are actually laws that protect you from requiring disclose your medical conditions.  The cases that I know of are are probably based on ADA requirements rather than HIPAA, but I know that establishments are specifically not allowed to ask people about medical conditions with regards to service dogs or wheelchairs.




That is different, in that 1) neither wheelchairs nor service dogs pose significant health threat to anyone else.  And, 2) under the ADA, if you _falsely_ claim to need them, and get special treatment, you are guilty of fraud, and possibly other offenses.

Also, and this is important, the ADA does _NOT_ say you get to do what you want because you have a disability.  It states that particular providers of services must make _reasonable accommodations_ for you.  So, if you can't ride the bus, we have to get you another ride.  If you cannot go into an establishment to shop, they may take a list and do your shopping for you, and so on.  

Hint - "reasonable" accommodations do not include raking a risk of death by COVID-19.  Direct threat of harm is specifically one of the things the ADA does _not_ require anyone to take to give you service.


----------



## Zarathon

Pros and Cons of Virtual Conventions:
Disclaimer, I went virtual, partly just to experience it.  I like XP.

Cons:
1.  Can't get away fully and I could break up my convention experience with work, lawn mowing, and wife aggro.
2.  Dropping into a game isn't always clear how to do at the virtual cons.
3.  Missing out on the meat-space camaraderie.

Pros:
1.  I don't have to smell anyone.
2.  I can go to more cons because it's all in front of my computer.
3.  Folks seem to be a little more relaxed and rested.  Maybe because they got to sleep in their own bed that night.


----------



## Istbor

Zarathon said:


> Pros and Cons of Virtual Conventions:
> Disclaimer, I went virtual, partly just to experience it.  I like XP.
> 
> Cons:
> 1.  Can't get away fully and I could break up my convention experience with work, lawn mowing, and wife aggro.
> 2.  Dropping into a game isn't always clear how to do at the virtual cons.
> 3.  Missing out on the meat-space camaraderie.
> 
> Pros:
> 1.  I don't have to smell anyone.
> 2.  I can go to more cons because it's all in front of my computer.
> 3.  Folks seem to be a little more relaxed and rested.  Maybe because they got to sleep in their own bed that night.




What con was it?


----------



## Zarathon

Istbor said:


> What con was it?



Well, to be totally transparent, it started with GaryCon, where I started helping folks out on the helpdesk to get their audio sorted, finding where they should be, both players and DMs.  

Then, at Virtual KoboldCon, I was more involved with helping out, DMed, and played. The highlight was doing a zoom with Luke Gygax, Zach Glazer, Stephan Porkorny, and many others in a VIG event.

And at that point, I was kinda hooked. I ended up working Con of Champions, EQP Con, Founders and Legends 3, and soon a couple others such as Virtual Greyhawk Con and Autumn Revel.

VGHC:





						Virtual Greyhawk Con 2020
					






					tabletop.events
				




AR:





						Autumn Revel I
					






					tabletop.events
				




Autumn Revel is Luke's 3rd con this year (VGC, F&L3, and now AR) and they are looking for GMs. I had a great time at his previous 2 cons, playing and gaming.

One of the most fun games I've played in was with this Canadian fellow I met named Cam Henderson. He was super in-demand at Virtual GenCon (but I had played with him in a special one-off because of scheduling). He's running his intensely-RP game at VGHC next and there's still seats, so if you are free, I highly recommend it:





						Improvised Adventure: Greyhawk
					






					tabletop.events
				




So, I tried it and loved it. Your mileage may vary. If nothing else, you can always watch the free streams of the cons. VGHC's has some really fun streams planned:





						Channel Guide
					






					tabletop.events
				




Is there a thread we have here where I could post active/happening virtual cons?  I kinda poked around, but didn't see it and I'm aware of 3 or 4 cons that are coming up that have _something_ going on.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> The basic problem, IMNHO, is that once someone says "I have a medical condition" I think the law is on their side that they don't have to provide information with what that condition is.




Umbran did a pretty good job of covering your points of inquiry.  I may be able to shed a bit more light.



> 1.  I don't know that the laws in question require disclosure.  The one in PA (where I live) was a governor's decree, definitely doesn't include provisions for it.  People are required to disclose things like abuse and gun shot wounds, but there is no language in the mask mandates about disclosure of  conditions.  I don't know what laws would apply on a boat in NY.




It’s not going to be in the mask mandate- it’s already in the overarching federal & state statutes and even case law.  Public health laws have been interpreted as being pretty firm.  Mary Mallon- a.k.a. Typhoid Mary- was institutionalized *for the last 30 years of her life* in a medical facility on an island off of NYC, essentially because she repeatedly ignored public health orders designed to keep her from spreading her disease.  Many of the people she infected didn’t know her background, but SHE did.  And kept ignoring the orders anyway.



> 2. 4. 5. and 7.  To the best of my knowledge these are exceptions that deal with a health care provider turning over information to law enforcement.  In this case, there was no care provider being questioned, so they wouldn't be applicable.  Now, if the people had said "I have a condition, I'm being treated at XYZ Doctor's office for it", this would allow the cops to check with the doctor.  But there's nothing requiring the people to give this information.




As Umbran pointed out, if you’re asserting a legal claim, you have to provide proof.  That’s basic stuff.  For example, if you’re being age carded when purchasing alcohol or requesting admissions to a concert at a bar, you don’t HAVE to provide proof, but if you don’t, you can legally be turned away.  They don’t have to take your word for it, and if they do, they face fines and license forfeiture...even if you’re being truthful.  (Those penalties are not dependent on your truthfulness, but on their requirements of due diligence.)

And if you bring suit agains the bar or liquor store for denying your service despite your being of legal age, the very first question YOU will be asked is “Did you provide proof of your age.  If the answer is “No.”, the gavel will bang and you’ve just lost your case.



> 7. and 10. Are the ones that would really apply in this case.  The problematic part is that everything I have read about this (IANAL) uses the term "imminent threat".  E.g, the medical issue must be imminent threatening others.  If the people who refuse to mask are asymptomatic, I don't know if they could legally be considered an imminent threat (again, my personal opinion differing from the law).  Also, statements from certain high profile government officials might lend credence to the threat not being so imminent.




In a pandemic where a significant disease vector is asymptomatic transmission- such as it is with C19- asymptomatic transmission will rise to the legal requirement of “immanence” in almost any court of initial jurisdiction.  Any court that doesn’t follow the science on that will likely get their findings overruled by a higher court.

Relying on the opinion statements of government officials is of little to no value.  If you try that with a tax case, for example, even relying on a written opinion by an IRS agent will be insufficient to protect you in a tax case if the opinion is found to be erroneous as a matter of law.



> Furthermore, in PA there are actually laws that protect you from requiring disclose your medical conditions.  The cases that I know of are are probably based on ADA requirements rather than HIPAA, but I know that establishments are specifically not allowed to ask people about medical conditions with regards to service dogs or wheelchairs.  Basically, an establishment cannot bar you from using medically required aids and is extremely limited in what questions they can ask about them; they can ask what service or needs you have, but are expressly barred from asking you what the underlying medical condition is.  I don't know if the same laws that protect people who are using medical aids could protect people who refuse to use medical aids.




Besides the caveat Umbran pointed out, In most cases, federal law trumps state law.  Someone relying on a state law to override federal disclosure requirements is playing Russian roulette with only one bullet removed from the revolver.

Not only that, but even the ADA has provisions regarding legal involuntary disclosure of a patient’s conditions (though most of the defining thereof is in case law).
http://www.adagreatlakes.org/Public...entiality_Requirements_Under_the_ADA_2018.pdf



> At the end of the day, I'm really curious because I don't know of any case law yet that actually upholds these mask laws.  In every case that I've seen locally, the real charge is for trespassing or disturbing the peace, or something similar.  I really want to see a case about mask laws make it through the legal system to see how it plays out.




The base charge is almost always going to be trespassing or disturbing the peace because the person making the claim is doing so in a place of business- a.k.a. someone else’s private property- and those are the most common grounds for ejection.  They break down like this:

Trespass: refusing to leave the premises after not complying with the property owner’s (or legal representatives) lawful request that you obey the store’s terms of service or leave

DTP: making a big verbal and/or physical ruckus about wearing the mask and/or being asked to leave

Part of the reason you haven’t seen any cases based in a HIPPA assertion or similar defense is that lawyers are burdened with a mandate that their pleadings in a case not be frivolous.  If their pleadings don’t pass the court’s sniff test, that could definitely get them rebukes, less leeway on their next appearance before that judge (IOW, the next client’s representation- regardless of identity, may be affected), fines, and, if bad enough, official censure from the bar.

So if a client wants to try a HIPAA defense in one of these cases, and can’t convince their lawyer, that lawyer is not going to plead it.  If the client insists, the lawyer will probably not take the case.  Or if already engaged, will try to resign.

Because of this, you’re extremely unlikely to EVER see a HIPPA defense in any of these anti-mask cases.

And the case law support?  Well, there’s over 115 years of SCOTUS-level precedent on the power of public health orders.  Masking laws aren’t even mid-tier problematic- some of those were challenged during the Spanish Flu.  They failed.

*****
*EDIT*: _Jacobsen v. Massachusetts _in 1905 dealt with the much more physically invasive- and thus, legally, requiring greater justification- matter of mandatory vaccination and _re_vaccination orders. The court ruled that the smallpox epidemic played a huge factor in the decision, saying the widespread smallpox outbreak justified a general rule for vaccination, saying the state was working to protect public health and safety.

If the state can order you to get an injection, forcing you to wear a mask is kid stuff.

And private businesses can likewise insist on masks as a condition of entry.  Those “No shirt, no shoes, no service” signs are perfectly legal and enforceable...and originally based in state & federal public health regs,  Heck, even non-health related dress codes are enfoceav as long as they’re not discriminatory in nature or enforcement.


----------



## Zardnaar

Not sure how the law here works but voluntary mask use didn't have a high uptake. 

 Last day of lockdown there was some anti lockdown protest and the cops didn't do much. They also didn't do much when BLM did their bigger March back in lockdown 1.0. 

 Turns out a lot of our mandatory stuff is more strongly suggested.


----------



## Cadence

A huge drop in active cases in just four days!??!

Turns out that active cases includes "is presumed positive based on symptoms and/or close contact with a known positive COVID individual".  Guessing that was a lot of tests that cleared people, and/or a lot of quarantines  that finished pretty much all at once?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Sturgis Motorcycle Rally linked to 20% of US coronavirus cases in August: researchers
					

Nineteen percent of the 1.4 million new coronavirus cases in the U.S. between Aug. 2 and Sept. 2 can be traced back to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally held in South Dakota, according to researchers from San Diego State University's Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Election next month. Under level 3 they suspended campaigning and the election.





__





						Jacinda Ardern begins New Zealand election tour at parents' house so they can babysit | Jacinda Ardern | The Guardian
					

New Zealand prime minister starts campaign with a sleepover at the ‘folks’ in the small rural town of Morrinsville




					amp.theguardian.com
				



Level two they can with social distancing. No D&D at gamestores until level 1 although home games are fine.


----------



## Hussar

Yeah, I gotta admit I'm blown away by people losing their naughty word on stores for requiring masks to be served.  And then trying to claim that it isn't lawful.  

Dude, it's a private buisiness.  I can insist that customers wear blue shirts if I want to.  It's my business.  You don't like it, GTFO.  

The funny thing is, I have a sneaking suspicion that the same folks that lose their minds in line at Walmart are the ones who insist that companies have the right to serve whomever they choose when it comes to ... erm... other issues.


----------



## billd91

Hussar said:


> Yeah, I gotta admit I'm blown away by people losing their naughty word on stores for requiring masks to be served.  And then trying to claim that it isn't lawful.
> 
> Dude, it's a private buisiness.  I can insist that customers wear blue shirts if I want to.  It's my business.  You don't like it, GTFO.
> 
> The funny thing is, I have a sneaking suspicion that the same folks that lose their minds in line at Walmart are the ones who insist that companies have the right to serve whomever they choose when it comes to ... erm... other issues.




That last bit hits the nail on the head. They think it’s fine to discriminate against others (for something illegitimate), not themselves (for something legitimate). Lack of privilege is for ”someone else” not them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Does USA not have laws about banning refusing service?

 Here you can refuse service legally. A gamestore couldn't kick out one of the more pungent players. At least the owner didn't want to try. 

 Once in a blue moon you hear a horror story though.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Does USA not have laws about banning refusing service?
> 
> Here you can refuse service legally. A gamestore couldn't kick out one of the more pungent players. At least the owner didn't want to try.
> 
> Once in a blue moon you hear a horror story though.



Yes we do.   You can refuse service to anyone for any LEGAL reason.

So you can refuse service to Rabbi O’Malley on the basis of being a drunk, a forger, a check bouncer, disruptive, unsanitary, or the like, but not for being Jewish, a religious convert, black, or lesbian.*





* in some states


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yes we do.   You can refuse service to anyone for any LEGAL reason.
> 
> So you can refuse service to Rabbi O’Malley on the basis of being a drunk, a forger, a check bouncer, disruptive, unsanitary, or the like, but not for being Jewish, a religious convert, black, or lesbian.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> * in 43 states




Ah here I believe you have to get a trespass order. 

 A lot of people don't actually know the law. For example some shops here have a sign along the lines of "we reserve the right to search your bags". 

 What they don't mention is you can reserve the right to refuse them and they are not allowed to restrain you in any way even if a staff member or security guard saw you steak something. 

 Basically you just walk off. Still not a great idea as behind the scenes they have photos etc via store security cams. 

 They can call the police but you more or less have to be there or parking lot to get caught. 

 Turns out during lockdown they can't legally stop you protesting either.


----------



## Eltab

Cadence said:


> A huge drop in active cases in just four days!??!
> 
> Turns out that active cases includes "is presumed positive based on symptoms and/or close contact with a known positive COVID individual".  Guessing that was a lot of tests that cleared people, and/or a lot of quarantines  that finished pretty much all at once?



If a bunch of people got it - or were detected to have it - all at once, their three-week quarantine would finish all at once. 
Maybe you are looking at (finally) an effective effort to cure patients and restrain the germs.


----------



## Istbor

Cadence said:


> A huge drop in active cases in just four days!??!
> 
> Turns out that active cases includes "is presumed positive based on symptoms and/or close contact with a known positive COVID individual".  Guessing that was a lot of tests that cleared people, and/or a lot of quarantines  that finished pretty much all at once?




Food for thought. Throughout this whole thing US numbers are always showing pretty low during Holidays and weekends, especially Sundays. I would wait to see if this is a real trend downward, or if this was a "no one in the office doing the reporting" type of thing.

Edit: Though I understand your information is much more specific. I don't know how much of what I stated would be a factor on reporting for just that university.


----------



## Cadence

Istbor said:


> Food for thought. Throughout this whole thing US numbers are always showing pretty low during Holidays and weekends, especially Sundays. I would wait to see if this is a real trend downward, or if this was a "no one in the office doing the reporting" type of thing.
> 
> Edit: Though I understand your information is much more specific. I don't know how much of what I stated would be a factor on reporting for just that university.




I'm used to that for reports of new cases (the local media made a big deal out of one of the types of tests going off-line because of a staff member illness).  The one ghat got me here was that it was the active ones.


----------



## MoonSong

This is bad news









						COVID-19 Vaccine Trial Paused Due To Illness In Volunteer
					

AstraZeneca, which is working with the University of Oxford, hasn't said what the illness is. It will try to determine whether the illness is related to the vaccine, or just a chance event.




					www.npr.org
				




My country had put a lot of money into this, which doesn't bode very well. Now Putin has threatened offered to flood the country  share thirty million doses of the poorly tested Sputnik vaccine by November.


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sturgis Motorcycle Rally linked to 20% of US coronavirus cases in August: researchers
> 
> 
> Nineteen percent of the 1.4 million new coronavirus cases in the U.S. between Aug. 2 and Sept. 2 can be traced back to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally held in South Dakota, according to researchers from San Diego State University's Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxnews.com




The group that did that study are not however epidemiologists so their interpretation of the data is subject to being confirmed...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Garthanos said:


> The group that did that study are not however epidemiologists so their interpretation of the data is subject to being confirmed...



Even if they had been, confirmation from other researchers would be ideal.


----------



## MoonSong

Garthanos said:


> The group that did that study are not however epidemiologists so their interpretation of the data is subject to being confirmed...



I still can't believe they went ahead with Sturgis, it is official every biker has secretly a death wish.


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Even if they had been, confirmation from other researchers would be ideal.



Agreed even scientifically capable and fully in their field is subject to that.


----------



## Garthanos

MoonSong said:


> I still can't believe they went ahead with Sturgis, it is official every biker has secretly a death wish.



A rather balanced online doctor who goes as ZDoggMD is pretty certain that the estimates in general are low and outlines why... my brain let it go out a window


----------



## billd91

MoonSong said:


> I still can't believe they went ahead with Sturgis, it is official every biker has secretly a death wish.




And it may be costing about $12 billion in public health resources. But, hey, as long as the Sturgis, SD locals got their slice of the pie, it's all good, right? That's the thinking going into these decisions. If it costs the whole of us or the country $12 billion, that's so remote that it's abstract. It might as well not even exist. And that's the problem - people making these bad decisions think so individualistically that they can't seem to grasp the broader implications of what it does to us as a whole.
And that applies to protesting pandemic restrictions, demanding that the Big 10 reinstate the football season, and all that other crap that just puts the public health at risk.


----------



## Hussar

Now, apparently, we have anti-maskers here in Japan, despite these wingnuts probably wearing masks all their lives.  Grrrr.









						Pilot makes unscheduled landing after passenger refuses to wear face mask
					

People in Japan are seething with anger at the selfishness of the anti-masker.




					soranews24.com


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> If it costs the whole of us or the country $12 billion, that's so remote that it's abstract. It might as well not even exist. And that's the problem - people making these bad decisions think so individualistically that they can't seem to grasp the broader implications of what it does to us as a whole.




And you're putting it in terms of money.

Let's note that covid-19 has a roughly 3% mortality rate in the US.  So, if Sturgis is responsible for 250,000 cases, it is then responsible for the 7,500 deaths that are statistically likely to ensue.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In a pandemic where a significant disease vector is asymptomatic transmission- such as it is with C19- asymptomatic transmission will rise to the legal requirement of “immanence” in almost any court of initial jurisdiction.  Any court that doesn’t follow the science on that will likely get their findings overruled by a higher court.




I want to believe this.



> Besides the caveat Umbran pointed out, In most cases, federal law trumps state law.  Someone relying on a state law to override federal disclosure requirements is playing Russian roulette with only one bullet removed from the revolver.




1.  The multibillion dollar marijuana industry in the US disagrees with you.

2.  Do you actually think the current federal government would even consider stepping in to _uphold_ a law requiring masks?  From what I can see, the feds are one of the biggest sources of the fight against requiring them.



> Not only that, but even the ADA has provisions regarding legal involuntary disclosure of a patient’s conditions (though most of the defining thereof is in case law).
> http://www.adagreatlakes.org/Public...entiality_Requirements_Under_the_ADA_2018.pdf




Everything I read in my skim through that doc was about employer/employee relationships.  Stores/customers/etc are a different case.  Check out these two examples:




__





						ADA 2010 Revised Requirements: Service Animals
					

The ADA Home Page provides access to Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) regulations for businesses and State and local governments, technical assistance materials, ADA Standards for Accessible Design, links to Federal agencies with ADA responsibilities and information, updates on new ADA...



					www.ada.gov
				







__





						Frequently Asked Questions | FTA
					

Paratransit EligibilityHow is paratransit eligibility determined?If an individual is eligible for ADA paratransit in their place of residence, does that individual have the right to u




					www.transit.dot.gov
				




Places like stores and service providers are actually forbidden from asking for proof of a medical condition that requires accommodations like service dogs or wheelchairs.  Just claiming it is completely sufficient.  AFAIK, this has never been challenged in the court for masks, but I suspect it will go the same way.

It is unfortunate that years of work to make the world more fair to people disabilities has created a number of backdoors for those that want to abuse the system.  And while there may be theoretical penalties for individuals who falsely claim special treatment, the risk is larger for companies that don't want to risk accidentally denying special treatment when asked.



> The base charge is almost always going to be trespassing or disturbing the peace because the person making the claim is doing so in a place of business- a.k.a. someone else’s private property- and those are the most common grounds for ejection.  They break down like this:
> ...
> And private businesses can likewise insist on masks as a condition of entry.  Those “No shirt, no shoes, no service” signs are perfectly legal and enforceable...and originally based in state & federal public health regs,  Heck, even non-health related dress codes are enfoceav as long as they’re not discriminatory in nature or enforcement.




This is the part that I find terrifying on a personal level.  If I'm in a store and someone else refuses to wear a mask, there's little I can do personally to make them wear it.  I could call the police and report it.  But if the base charge needs to be trespassing or disturbing the peace, I'm relying on the store to ask the person to don a mask.  If the store decides they don't want to get involved, there's nothing I can do.  That's why I firmly believe we need much stricter mask laws; the current ones just don't cut it.



> If the state can order you to get an injection, forcing you to wear a mask is kid stuff.




The anti-vax movement is working very hard to prevent this exact thing, and they're having a depressing amount of success with it.

I do admire your positive thinking in all this, I just don't share it.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> 1.  The multibillion dollar marijuana industry in the US disagrees with you.




No, it doesn't.  There's simply enough profit in it for them to take the risk.  



> 2.  Do you actually think the current federal government would even consider stepping in to _uphold_ a law requiring masks?  From what I can see, the feds are one of the biggest sources of the fight against requiring them.




The Federal government _cannot_ uphold a State law, order, or ordinance.  Not their jurisdiction.



> Places like stores and service providers are actually forbidden from asking for proof of a medical condition that requires accommodations like service dogs or wheelchairs.  Just claiming it is completely sufficient.




You're missing the point.  The question is not whether the store can ask for proof, as we were talking about what happens in court.

John doesn't want to wear a mask.  Jane owns a small market.  John comes to the store, without a mask.  Jane, following local ordinances, orders and policies, says John cannot enter.  John claims an ADA exemption.  

Jane doesn't have to ask for proof.  She doesn't have to (and indeed, cannot legally) allow John inside the store.  She offers John accommodation - give her a list of what's needed and she'll have someone gather the items and bring them out.  John, being a putz, raises a fuss, and the thing ends up in court in one of many possible ways.

_THE COURT_ asks John on what basis he claims the ADA exemption.  Now, John does have to prove that he actually has a relevant condition.  If he does not, his entire case is fraudulent, and John himself is in deep kimchee.


----------



## Zardnaar

Biggest cluster now linked to church. Police broke up a service during lockdown.

 75 million dollars a day to lick Auckland down in lost activity.

 School student had Covid so they shut the entire school down for the week.









						Bloomfield warns of ‘flashing orange’ alert as Auckland church cluster grows
					

The sub-cluster is linked it to a church meeting held in lockdown and members who 'don't accept the science'.



					thespinoff.co.nz


----------



## Garthanos

We had 9 sororities going into quarantine each with 4 or 5 cases all since Aug 23 ... yeh boom sororities are a bad idea right now. And the USA is kind of too.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> We had 9 sororities going into quarantine each with 4 or 5 cases all since Aug 23 ... yeh boom sororities are a bad idea right now. And the USA is kind of too.




 Well it's a month today since Covid 2.0.

 It's about 10% of the size of 1.0, 2 deaths total so far.  Peaked at 13 cases a day they've hammered it down to 2-5 cases a day. 

 Takes about a month to get that last trickle down to 0. Might take slightly longer due to things like churches and it's getting harder to get people to comply.

 Mostly the US style evangelical churches that prey on the Pasifika community's.


----------



## Cadence

Garthanos said:


> We had 9 sororities going into quarantine each with 4 or 5 cases all since Aug 23 ... yeh boom sororities are a bad idea right now. And the USA is kind of too.




I had to check.  We were up to 12 quarantined Greek Houses (out of 20 possible iirc) on September 4th.  :-/


----------



## billd91

Cadence said:


> I had to check.  We were up to 12 quarantined Greek Houses (out of 20 possible iirc) on September 4th.  :-/




Two of the big dorms on the UW-Madison campus have just been quarantined. That's over 2200 students. All of the kids are being tested in them - one's got a 10% positive rate, the other 17%... so far.
The whole campus has shifted to the next 2 weeks strictly online.


----------



## Garthanos

billd91 said:


> The whole campus has shifted to the next 2 weeks strictly online.



That much is sanity


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> 75 million dollars a day to lick Auckland down




BEST typo of the thread.


----------



## Cadence

Garthanos said:


> That much is sanity




Once the students are on campus, (for at least here) I'm not sure going all on-line matters that much. 

The vast majority of classes are either already all on-line or have the option (which most students seem to be taking), the capacity in rooms is 1/3 to 1/2 usual with seats blocked out, the AC is chilled water by room, and the wearing of masks and santiation is enforced.  Unless they're locked down in their dorm rooms, I wonder if a lot of them have less space while watching on couches next to each other or in their apartment common areas?


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Once the students are on campus, (for at least here) I'm not sure going all on-line matters that much.
> 
> The vast majority of classes are either already all on-line or have the option (which most students seem to be taking), the capacity in rooms is 1/3 to 1/2 usual with seats blocked out, the AC is chilled water by room, and the wearing of masks and santiation is enforced.  Unless they're locked down in their dorm rooms, I wonder if a lot of them have less space while watching on couches next to each other or in their apartment common areas?




 Way it works here level 3 they close them level 1 or 2 open. 

 They're not fans of half and half.

 Jacindas been nominated for nobel prize. According to another site her and Greta are the odds on favorite to win. 

 She's the poster child but it's really the director general of health doing things. She doing her job on the communicating/empathy part.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> 1.  The multibillion dollar marijuana industry in the US disagrees with you.




The defining “shadow” power of the executive branch is discretion, usually in the context of how or IF a law is enforced.  That’s why a cop doesn’t HAVE to jail you for an offense if they have a reason not to.  In the case of state decriminalization of MJ, discretion  is being used not to enforce federal drug laws in those states...for now.  Because, make no mistake, they still could.



> 2.  Do you actually think the current federal government would even consider stepping in to uphold a law requiring masks?  From what I can see, the feds are one of the biggest sources of the fight against requiring them.




We’ve already had discussions on the quality of federal and state leadership in this country and others in this thread.  Let’s leave that lie.

And as Umbran correctly points out, most public health orders are implemented and enforced at the state level.  Barring some truly exotic fact situations- like, perhaps one state suing another over strictness or laxity of their handling the pandemic- the feds have no jurisdiction over state orders.



> Everything I read in my skim through that doc was about employer/employee relationships.  Stores/customers/etc are a different case.  Check out these two examples:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ADA 2010 Revised Requirements: Service Animals
> 
> 
> The ADA Home Page provides access to Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) regulations for businesses and State and local governments, technical assistance materials, ADA Standards for Accessible Design, links to Federal agencies with ADA responsibilities and information, updates on new ADA...
> 
> 
> 
> www.ada.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Frequently Asked Questions | FTA
> 
> 
> Paratransit EligibilityHow is paratransit eligibility determined?If an individual is eligible for ADA paratransit in their place of residence, does that individual have the right to u
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.transit.dot.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Places like stores and service providers are actually forbidden from asking for proof of a medical condition that requires accommodations like service dogs or wheelchairs.  Just claiming it is completely sufficient.  AFAIK, this has never been challenged in the court for masks, but I suspect it will go the same way.




There’s critical differences.

First of all, things like wheelchairs and service dogs are explicitly covered under a variety of laws and case law as aids to help the differently abled.  And since service dogs are the only universally recognized service animals in the USA, there HAS been pushback against those claiming non-canine service animals.  Inquiries into those have NOT been disallowed, with victories for the businesses beginning to accumulate.  Remember the airline’s disallowing the boarding a claimed emotional support peacock from one of its flights in 2018?  They won.  So did the airline that wouldn’t allow a passenger to fly with his emotional support pig in 2014.

Second, as pointed out before, masking orders fall under public health rules, not aids to the disabled.  It’s a completely different set of laws.  And far more onerous and invasive PH orders have been upheld by the SCOTUS.



> This is the part that I find terrifying on a personal level.  If I'm in a store and someone else refuses to wear a mask, there's little I can do personally to make them wear it.  I could call the police and report it.  But if the base charge needs to be trespassing or disturbing the peace, I'm relying on the store to ask the person to don a mask.  If the store decides they don't want to get involved, there's nothing I can do.  That's why I firmly believe we need much stricter mask laws; the current ones just don't cut it.




It doesn’t NEED to be a trespassing charge, that’s just the retailer’s trump card.  As was done in 1918, if there is a masking order in place, you could simply report a violation to the authorities.

Now, whether they’re going to ENFORCE the order is another matter entirely.  There’s at least one sheriff in Ohio who has publicly stated he won’t enforce such ordinances and actually ordered his deputies to go about their duties unmasked.  Similarly, sheriffs in Denton, Houston, Montgomery, Gillespie, Upshur, Kerr, Gregg, Nacogdoches and Panola counties in Texas have likewise refused to enforce the Governor’s masking order, citing “unenforceability” and logistical issues.  So far as I know, none of those 10 LEOs has gotten any kind of reprimand.

Plus, in certain circumstances, the person claiming the exemption goes a little too far.  While I haven’t seen any reports lately, for a while, there were several people trying to support their flouting the regs with documents claiming to be from the ADA and other agencies.  Some went as far as to include replicas of those agencies’ official seals on the documents.  All of these are, of course, forgeries of federal documents.  That’s a felony.

Others tried similar documents with entirely fake agencies and seals.  That’s fraud.

In those cases, I advised anyone involved to get photos of the individuals ad get some contact info (if possible) and contacting the police.



> The anti-vax movement is working very hard to prevent this exact thing, and they're having a depressing amount of success with




They’ve had some success convincing some of the general public that it’s a fight they can win, yes.  But no case has gone to court, mostly for reasons already stated.

And even if such a case goes to court, the force of _stare decisis _behind a 115 year old branch of case law is considerable.  Not many judges are going to want to buck that, even if they don’t agree.  They’re going to want something solid to hang their robes on.  So far, there really hasn’t been anything noteworthy in terms of a novel legal argument.


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> They’ve had some success convincing some of the general public that it’s a fight they can win, yes.  But no case has gone to court, mostly for reasons already stated.



Anti-vaxxers seem lucky that vaccination has not been declared a fundamental health need leaving them charged with criminal neglect wrt their children


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s critical differences.
> 
> First of all, things like wheelchairs and service dogs are explicitly covered under a variety of laws and case law as aids to help the differently abled.  And since service dogs are the only universally recognized service animals in the USA, there HAS been pushback against those claiming non-canine service animals.  Inquiries into those have NOT been disallowed, with victories for the businesses beginning to accumulate.  Remember the airline’s disallowing the boarding a claimed emotional support peacock from one of its flights in 2018?  They won.  So did the airline that wouldn’t allow a passenger to fly with his emotional support pig in 2014.
> 
> Second, as pointed out before, masking orders fall under public health rules, not aids to the disabled.  It’s a completely different set of laws.  And far more onerous and invasive PH orders have been upheld by the SCOTUS.
> ...
> And even if such a case goes to court, the force of _stare decisis _behind a 115 year old branch of case law is considerable.  Not many judges are going to want to buck that, even if they don’t agree.  They’re going to want something solid to hang their robes on.  So far, there really hasn’t been anything noteworthy in terms of a novel legal argument.




I understand that there's critical differences.  However, I think the ADA (and HIPAA, and a few other things) are the novel legal arguments that can be used against that 115 year old case law.  I don't know of any cases that pit these against each other.

Also, as a side note, the reason that the "emotional support animal" cases you mention turned out that way is because emotional support animals are not recognized as service animals under the ADA.   They are two critically different things;  IIRC, dogs and miniature horses are the only animals that can be classified as actual service animals (although I saw a documentary about monkeys possibly doing the job too). I don't know of any case where a company has tried to block an actual service animal and won. The issue of masks would be much more akin to making accomodations for wheelchairs, oxygen, etc.



> Now, whether they’re going to ENFORCE the order is another matter entirely.  There’s at least one sheriff in Ohio who has publicly stated he won’t enforce such ordinances and actually ordered his deputies to go about their duties unmasked.  Similarly, sheriffs in Denton, Houston, Montgomery, Gillespie, Upshur, Kerr, Gregg, Nacogdoches and Panola counties in Texas have likewise refused to enforce the Governor’s masking order, citing “unenforceability” and logistical issues.  So far as I know, none of those 10 LEOs has gotten any kind of reprimand.




Its the LEOs that won't enforce it and _don't_ make public statements that scare me more.  I'd rather know what I'm dealing with up front.  Also, I recognize that there's a little irony in me talking about how these orders might not be enforceable, but complaining about cops that feel the same way.  However, I'm a random guy spouting internet armchair opinions about how the courts might rule, they're the ones that are supposed to be taking action to protect the public.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> I understand that there's critical differences.  However, I think the ADA (and HIPAA, and a few other things) are the novel legal arguments that can be used against that 115 year old case law.  I don't know of any cases that pit these against each other.




You seem to persist in misunderstanding those laws.  It is entirely unclear upon what basis you feel they are a hindrance.  Neither one of them poses any barrier to local mask ordinances.

There is already a solid precedent - disabled parking permits*.   If you use a wheelchair, for example, you have to make an application for a permit/plate to allow you to park in handicapped parking.   On that form, you _must reveal_ to your state what condition you have that requires it, and your doctor has to certify the fact that you have this condition, and that it calls for an accommodation.

This has passed muster with HIPPA and the ADA since the very beginning.  There is no legal issue with the government requiring a person with a disability to actually tell the government about that disability when they interact with that government concerning their disability!  If you want a special accommodation, you do at some point need to prove you need it.  Maybe not to a store owner, but to the government.



> IIRC, dogs and miniature horses are the only animals that can be classified as actual service animals (although I saw a documentary about monkeys possibly doing the job too).




Dogs and miniature horses are the only animals that qualify under the ADA.  State and local ordinances may allow other animals.  And, you can do what you want in your own home.  You can have a monkey do things for you if you want at home, but you cannot file an ADA complaint against a restaurant for not allowing it in their place of business.

"Emotional support" animals don't count, in large part because service animals are defined as being trained to do tasks for the person.  While having an animal's companionship may well be mood-stabilising for many people, merely existing near you is not a "task", and typically requires no special training of the animal.



> I don't know of any case where a company has tried to block an actual service animal and won. The issue of masks would be much more akin to making accommodations for wheelchairs, oxygen, etc.




Then, you have to remember that the ADA has the word "reasonable" all over the place.  They need to make _reasonable_ accommodation.  And that doesn't necessarily mean "the specific accommodation desired by the disabled person."  So, for example, an old building may have only narrow, steep staircases.  Typically, that could call for an elevator as an accommodation.  However, if the architecture cannot support an elevator, or the cost of installation would be too high, the business may not be required to put one in. 

And, the ADA very _specifically and explicitly_ does not count, "put employees or patrons at risk of harm," as reasonable. If there are employees present who are deathly allergic to dogs, you may not be allowed to bring in your service animal, for example.

So, in the middle of a pandemic, you cannot insist on entering a place of business without a mask. That puts other patrons at risk, and is not supported by the ADA.  At all.  The ADA specifically excludes this kind of behavior.  So, I don't see why you think it becomes a defense of that behavior.




*as what we are effectively discussing is a "go out in public without a mask" permit..


----------



## Ryujin

I feel like my Region will be dropping back to Stage 2, at the least. The entire Province had something like 184 new cases over the course of two days, this week. Of those, over 40% were from just the city in which I live, which is roughly 3% of the Province's population.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The ADA is designed to let the differently abled individuals get about their lives independently, including mandates for things like wheelchair accessibility.  Furthermore, the ADA has particular clauses that say it does not supersede regulations designed to inhibit the spread of disease.  IOW, by its own terms, It doesn’t apply at all.



> Nothing in this subchapter shall require an entity to permit an individual to participate in or benefit from the goods, services, facilities, privileges, advantages and accommodations of such entity where such individual poses a direct threat to the health or safety of others. The term "direct threat" means a significant risk to the health or safety of others that cannot be eliminated by a modification of policies, practices, or procedures or by the provision of auxiliary aids or services.




Additionaly, private clubs are immune to the requirements of the ADA (as they are to many other laws).  So if you’re trying this legal argument against a retailer like Sam’s or Costco, you’ve got an additional hurdle to surmount.

HIPAA is designed to let patients prevent unauthorized use of their medical info by persons to whom it is given.  But there’s that problematic “need to know” and “reasonable accommodations“ language to get by, in addition to the trespass laws.  As Umbran has pointed out, if you’re making this legal claim, you have to provide evidence of it.  You could refuse to provide such evidence at the store, but that means we go back to the default setting of private property: they don’t have to let you in.

Masking orders and similar PH regs are to protect the general welfare of the citizenry, and have been strongly supported in case law.  of the three legal regimes here, it’s the big dog.  It’s a VERY big dog.

Back in the 70s (as I recall) a different kind of masking order was being challenged on religious grounds.  A particular (lucative and highly desired) job required a mask to protect the employees.  Some employees who wanted the jobs had religious practices that prevented them from cutting their facial hair, and facial hair compromised the effectiveness of the masks.  The employees lost.  Even a claim of religious discrimination was insufficient to defeat the masking requirement.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Anti-vaxxers seem lucky that vaccination has not been declared a fundamental health need leaving them charged with criminal neglect wrt their children




 Not sure how it works in the USA but here our Bill if Rights Act 1990 specifically gives you the right to refuse treatment. 

 They might be able to make it difficult to refuse. For example. 

1. A job could require vaccination as part of the health and safety requirements. 

2. Vaccination is required to access government benefits etc. 

  Yesterday we had 1 new case. Active cases declining, original outbreak basically wiped out new stuff linked to church.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Not sure how it works in the USA but here our Bill if Rights Act 1990 specifically gives you the right to refuse treatment.




We don't think we have a single blanket law on the matter.

There are cases where a guardian who refuses to allow a child to be treated may be considered abusing the child, and have the choice taken from them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> We don't think we have a single blanket law on the matter.
> 
> There are cases where a guardian who refuses to allow a child to be treated may be considered abusing the child, and have the choice taken from them.




 Ah. They can change it here with an act of parliment. That only requires a simple majority in parliment. 

 They've also decleared an emergency using some law from 1956 but it's never been tested.

 There's talk of making disinformation illegal but once again that's a violation of that act. 

 Election next month, the odds of the opposition winning is 0.1% apparently and Jacinda is the most popular PM ever. 

 She's on track to win an outright majority of the popular vote (hasn't happened since 1951). She'll have a mandate to basically do whatever the hell she wants.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The ADA is designed to let the differently abled individuals get about their lives independently, including mandates for things like wheelchair accessibility.  Furthermore, the ADA has particular clauses that say it does not supersede regulations designed to inhibit the spread of disease.  IOW, by its own terms, It doesn’t apply at all.
> 
> "Nothing in this subchapter shall require an entity to permit an individual to participate in or benefit from the goods, services, facilities, privileges, advantages and accommodations of such entity where such individual poses a direct threat to the health or safety of others. The term "direct threat" means a significant risk to the health or safety of others that cannot be eliminated by a modification of policies, practices, or procedures or by the provision of auxiliary aids or services."




First, just as with our discussion of "immanence" earlier, there is not a clear ruling that an asymptomatic person would constitute a "direct threat".  You and I both think they _should_, but that has never been legally defined or ruled on.  It's not that I'm saying you're wrong, I'm just saying it's an opinion we both share, and I don't trust the rest of the world to agree with us.

Second, the hypothetical store/service/place could theoretically provide a number of auxiliary aids and services to eliminate the risk.  A greater degree of distancing, providing an alternate barrier, etc.  What you just quoted is exactly why the store can't simply tell a person to wear a mask or leave (without offering alternatives; if they claim they have a disability; insert qualifier here).



> If you’re making this legal claim, you have to provide evidence of it.  You could refuse to provide such evidence at the store, but that means we go back to the default setting of private property: they don’t have to let you in.




I'm not disagreeing with you about facts on this, I'm disagreeing with the process.  A store can't ask for proof of a disability.  Police can't force you to give proof of a disability.  A police officer won't remove someone from private property without a complaint from the store.

So, if a person refuses to wear mask but is otherwise well behaved, what happens?  A store has to follow strict guidelines on what questions they're allowed to ask, offer alternatives, and then ask them to leave.  If they ask the wrong questions they can get sued.  If they believe the person is lying about a disability, they can kick them out anyway.  But if that person is telling the truth, they can be sued.  If that person is lying, the store can be sued anyway, and the store will have to wait until the case goes to court to find out if their suspicions about lying are correct.  Or, the minimum wage employee can just shrug and walk away.  I think that's why you only hear about cases of people being arrested for disorderly or drunken conduct.  People who refuse to wear masks but otherwise control themselves can skirt the law with near zero risk of being called out for it.

This discussion reminds me of a joke:  I was standing at a crosswalk one day with another man.  My light tuned green, but cars kept coming so I couldn't cross.  The man say to me "You know, you can start walking.  The law says they have to stop.".  I say "The law won't protect me if they don't".  



> Back in the 70s (as I recall) a different kind of masking order was being challenged on religious grounds.  A particular (lucative and highly desired) job required a mask to protect the employees.  Some employees who wanted the jobs had religious practices that prevented them from cutting their facial hair, and facial hair compromised the effectiveness of the masks.  The employees lost.  Even a claim of religious discrimination was insufficient to defeat the masking requirement.




Employer/employee relationship, not a business/customer one.  Where the risks were more clearly defined and no possible safety workarounds were identified.  And, since it was religious and not a disability, the ADA didn't apply.


----------



## Cadence

Thoughts put together by a legal research staff at a place that does ada work: Disability Issues Brief: The ADA and Face Mask Policies


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Cadence said:


> Thoughts put together by a legal research staff at a place that does ada work: Disability Issues Brief: The ADA and Face Mask Policies



Good document.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> First, just as with our discussion of "immanence" earlier, there is not a clear ruling that an asymptomatic person would constitute a "direct threat".  You and I both think they should, but that has never been legally defined or ruled on.  It's not that I'm saying you're wrong, I'm just saying it's an opinion we both share, and I don't trust the rest of the world to agree with us.




In all likelihood, there isn’t going to be a new ruling on “immanence”- that ship sailed with the declaration of epidemic/pandemic in the context of this particular disease.  Asymptomatic transmission of C19 is a major known disease vector- that fact won’t be lost on any judge.



> Second, the hypothetical store/service/place could theoretically provide a number of auxiliary aids and services to eliminate the risk.  A greater degree of distancing, providing an alternate barrier, etc.  What you just quoted is exactly why the store can't simply tell a person to wear a mask or leave (without offering alternatives; if they claim they have a disability; insert qualifier here).




I think you’re misunderstanding the dynamics of what’s going on. 

First, the laws of private property- the first of which is the right of exclusion- means precisely that a store can have a dress code that bars entry to those who don’t comply with it.  If they make a mask part of their terms and conditions of entry, they don’t have to let you in.  If you claim a disability that would grant you an exception, they STILL don’t have to let you in as long as they have other “reasonable accommodations” such as online shopping, a personal shopper to do your shopping for you, curbside service, etc.  Thing is, a “reasonable accommodation” isn’t necessarily the accommodation you want.  _They still don’t have to let you in._

Second, if they’re a private club- the aforementioned Sam’s and Costcos of the world- the ADA has less power over them.  And they can simply revoke your membership (for any reason as long as it isn’t an illegal one or disallowed by the membership agreement).

Third, their position is further reinforced by governmental masking orders and other public health regs, which have greater legal force historically than things like the ADA.



> I'm not disagreeing with you about facts on this, I'm disagreeing with the process.  A store can't ask for proof of a disability.  Police can't force you to give proof of a disability.  A police officer won't remove someone from private property without a complaint from the store.




As previously stated, public health regulations are the ones with the greater force of law behind them.  As noted in the brief Cadence linked to: “Based upon the CDC guidance, a business or government agency may require customers to wear a face mask to limit the spread of COVID-19. “

The ADA & HIPPA statutes and case law carve out “need to know” exceptions on inquiries into a person’s medical history.  Since businesses are the metaphorical front line of enforcing those orders, their need to know who needs accommodation means that you can be asked if your anti-mask rationale has an underlying medical reason in order to enforce said orders.  But as noted, even if you have such a reason, _they don’t have to permit you entry_.  In fact, in places where the masking orders are strongest, they may not legally be permitted to do so.



> So, if a person refuses to wear mask but is otherwise well behaved, what happens?  A store has to follow strict guidelines on what questions they're allowed to ask, offer alternatives, and then ask them to leave.  If they ask the wrong questions they can get sued.




While that’s true, such a suit is unlikely to succeed under current conditions, e.g. the declaration of pandemic.  Defending the suit would not be a trivial cost, but the odds of successful defense would be virtually assured, given the “need to know” exception and government orders in place.  Hell, there’s even a chance a court would toss the lawsuit as frivolous.



> If they believe the person is lying about a disability, they can kick them out anyway.  But if that person is telling the truth, they can be sued.




Same as above.



> If that person is lying, the store can be sued anyway, and the store will have to wait until the case goes to court to find out if their suspicions about lying are correct.  Or, the minimum wage employee can just shrug and walk away.  I think that's why you only hear about cases of people being arrested for disorderly or drunken conduct.  People who refuse to wear masks but otherwise control themselves can skirt the law with near zero risk of being called out for it.




Can?  Sometimes.  But it’s very fact dependent.

Depends on how stores choose to enforce policy.  There’s numerous videos of otherwise orderly anti-maskers being denied entry or escorted out from stores around the USA.  My aunt works in a private retail club where even peaceful anti-maskers have had their memberships revoked...along with everyone else on the account.



> Employer/employee relationship, not a business/customer one.  Where the risks were more clearly defined and no possible safety workarounds were identified.  And, since it was religious and not a disability, the ADA didn't apply.






Where the standard of duty was higher, and the claim was based on a strongly defended constitutional right.  IOW, the company had to meet a higher level of justification for their denial than would a company trying to enforce a masking order based on their dress code and/or a government masking order.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Not sure how it works in the USA but here our Bill if Rights Act 1990 specifically gives you the right to refuse treatment.



So you say failing to provide for your kids healthcare cannot result in them taken away? It sure can here.   Refusing treatment for treatable illnesses for your child on many things can result in you losing custody of them as a repercussion if they are still alive or jail when they arent.

I have heard some arguing that many poor people aware of that implicit possibility is why so few are anti vaxxers and that it is all privileged karen's and kens who anti-vaxx.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I think you’re misunderstanding the dynamics of what’s going on.
> 
> ...which have greater legal force historically...
> ...
> While that’s true, such a suit is unlikely to succeed ...
> ...
> Can?  Sometimes.  But it’s very fact dependent.
> ...
> Depends on how...




I think you're misunderstanding the difference between understanding and agreeing.  I understand the points you are making.  I simply don't agree with your faith that things will turn out the way they're supposed to.  I cite the case of Murphy v. 2020 as evidence.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> So you say failing to provide for your kids healthcare cannot result in them taken away? It sure can here.   Refusing treatment for treatable illnesses for your child on many things can result in you losing custody of them as a repercussion if they are still alive or jail when they arent.
> 
> I have heard some arguing that many poor people aware of that implicit possibility is why so few are anti vaxxers and that it is all privileged karen's and kens who anti-vaxx.




 If you're outright neglecting kids then yes social services can intervene. 

 Refusing a vaccine doesn't fall under that. 

 It gets murky with say parents refusing treatment for kids. There are laws but I'm not a lawyer. 

 NZ judges fall a bit more in the spirit of the law than the letter though. 

  For example the mandatory qurantine isn't strictly mandatory as they can't enforce it as such. They can at the border. 

 There's an anti mask/restrictions protest planned for tomorrow. People are like why are the cops not stopping it since it's going to violate the 100 person gathering limit. 

 The cops did nothing when BLM protested during lockdown either breaking the lockdown rules. 






						New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990 No 109 (as at 01 July 2013), Public Act Contents – New Zealand Legislation
					






					www.legislation.govt.nz
				




 Parts 11, 15,16.

 As written the cops can't really enforce much.


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In all likelihood, there isn’t going to be a new ruling on “immanence”- that ship sailed with the declaration of epidemic/pandemic in the context of this particular disease.  Asymptomatic transmission of C19 is a major known disease vector- that fact won’t be lost on any judge.




I would *like* to believe so, but the Wisconsin Supreme Court keeps disabusing me of that notion. Even now, while we're seeing record levels of positive tests (for WI) and the UW-Madison is quarantining whole dorms with thousands of students, they slapped a temporary injunction on Dane County's declaration that schools have to use distance learning for grades 3-12. While it might make sense to review the county's powers over schools in the county from a legal sense, the temporary injunction is going to allow schools to bring kids of all levels back for face-to-face learning. A smarter move, one that recognized asymptomatic transmission is a major vector, would have left the order in place so as to not let the horse out of the barn, so to speak.
Seriously, I can't underline strenuously enough how much judicial partisanship/politicking can derange their decisions.


----------



## Zardnaar

The Make Aotearoa Great Again (MAGA) crowd out in Auckland. 






 Time to turn in my Kiwis can't be this stupid card. They're even using American symbols lol.

 One of the nutjob parties waving their signs around. Sub 1% doesn't get you into parliment even with proportional representation. 

  Wonder if bulldozing Auckland into the Hauraki Gulf is a good idea?


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> Second, the hypothetical store/service/place could theoretically provide a number of auxiliary aids and services to eliminate the risk.




They could.   But they don't _have to_.  They are not bound by the ADA, or anything else, to offer you the accommodation you request.  They merely have to give you a _reasonable_ one.  



> What you just quoted is exactly why the store can't simply tell a person to wear a mask or leave (without offering alternatives; if they claim they have a disability; insert qualifier here).




Um, would you go back and please check where anyone _other than you_ suggested that course of action for the business?  Because, I'm pretty sure you won't find it.  Which would mean that you are engaged in a strawman argument.  Maybe bring yourself around to what we are actually saying, hm?  Thanks. 



> So, if a person refuses to wear mask but is otherwise well behaved, what happens?




"I'm terribly sorry, but there's current orders/regulations about wearing masks in public places.  We have to ask you to remain outside the building.  How might we otherwise meet your needs?"

The store doesn't actually have to ask you any questions about what your health issue is.  It is irrelevant, a boogeyman.  



> If they ask the wrong questions they can get sued.




Having spoken with a friend of mine who works in disability rights, this is not quite correct.

Technically, they can ask.  What they cannot do is _require an answer_ as a condition of service.  If they ask, "Sir, could you tell me what your issue is, so that I can help you better?" they are not subject to suit.  If they say, "Prove to me that you need that service dog, or you cannot come in!" then they are in trouble.



> If that person is lying, the store can be sued anyway, and the store will have to wait until the case goes to court to find out if their suspicions about lying are correct.  Or, the minimum wage employee can just shrug and walk away.




You _continue to miss_ how this is not an all-or-nothing, give them full service or none situation.  "Sir, if you can give me a list of the goods you need, I'll get one of our staff to gather them up and bring them out to you," is a perfectly reasonable accommodation for retail services.  So is, "Please see our website for ordering."  And so on.  

I really suggest you not continue to miss this.

If lawsuit is your boogeyman, there's a couple points to hit:

1) There's a limit to how much this suit is worth.   They cannot bleed you dry for this, and in fact, unless a pattern of behavior of not accommodating people with disabilities is established.  A first offense generally gets you a warning and orders to change your policies or establishment to deal with the issue properly.  So, one yahoo will generally get you a visit from a bureaucrat, not a hundred thousand dollars in the hole.

2) With a mask order in place, if the proprietor lets someone in without a mask, they technically suffer legal exposure from _everyone else on the premises_, who is now being put at risk.  If any of them come down with covid-19, they have grounds for a civil suit.  If anyone _dies_ and that is connected to your establishment where you didn't follow the rules, now you may even have a wrongful death suit on your hands.

Thank you, the threat that a yutz trying to weaponize the ADA is paltry compared to the _millions_ you may be on the hook for in a wrongful death suit.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> If you're outright neglecting kids then yes social services can intervene.



As I said the difference is a decision to rule/declare that not vaccinating is indeed neglecting and not providing fundamental healthcare. I am not saying they have done this... just that the step is not really that huge  Tetanus and Rabies can you picture an anti-vaxxers kids there are some horrible ways to die and these are what they withhold protection from. 

It almost seems like Munchausens by proxy.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> As I said the difference is a decision to rule/declare that not vaccinating is indeed neglecting and not providing fundamental healthcare. I am not saying they have done this... just that the step is not really that huge  Tetanus and Rabies can you picture an anti-vaxxers kids there are some horrible ways to die and these are what they withhold protection from.
> 
> It almost seems like Munchausens by proxy.




New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990 No 109 (as at 01 July 2013), Public Act 11 Right to refuse to undergo medical treatment – New Zealand Legislation

 "Everyone has the right to refuse any medical treatment"

 Unlike the US constitution it's easy enough to change at least in theory.

 Same bill specifically let's you worship and associate in public hence why the cops can't do much about protests and breaking rules in lockdown.

 Not sure how they're enforcing qurantine rules.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

billd91 said:


> I would *like* to believe so, but the Wisconsin Supreme Court keeps disabusing me of that notion. Even now, while we're seeing record levels of positive tests (for WI) and the UW-Madison is quarantining whole dorms with thousands of students, they slapped a temporary injunction on Dane County's declaration that schools have to use distance learning for grades 3-12. While it might make sense to review the county's powers over schools in the county from a legal sense, the temporary injunction is going to allow schools to bring kids of all levels back for face-to-face learning. A smarter move, one that recognized asymptomatic transmission is a major vector, would have left the order in place so as to not let the horse out of the barn, so to speak.
> Seriously, I can't underline strenuously enough how much judicial partisanship/politicking can derange their decisions.



One thing to remember about most judges, be they partisan hacks or scrupulously ethical neutrals is that the orders they issue are going to be defined and constrained by the arguments made before them by the appearing parties and the evidence those parties present to support their assertions.*  Make a big enough mistake in your presentation- or accumulate enough minor ones- and a case that SHOULD have gone one way will go the other.



* hyperpartisan hacks are a different story.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Zardnaar said:


> New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990 No 109 (as at 01 July 2013), Public Act 11 Right to refuse to undergo medical treatment – New Zealand Legislation
> 
> "Everyone has the right to refuse any medical treatment"
> 
> Unlike the US constitution it's easy enough to change at least in theory.
> 
> Same bill specifically let's you worship and associate in public hence why the cops can't do much about protests and breaking rules in lockdown.
> 
> Not sure how they're enforcing qurantine rules.




The Bill of Rights can be trumped by any other piece of legislation if need be. But only after the draft has passed through a special committee appointed by the Ministry of Justice, and that committee agrees (I was once part of a team that drafted a Bill and had to take it before that committee - twice). For example the Mental Health Act allows for compulsory treatment in specific circumstances. The Health Act can also require compulsory incarceration in the case of infectious illnesses. Pre-Covid I recall a case where a guy with TB ended up in prison because he kept leaving hospital while infectious.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mikeythorn said:


> The Bill of Rights can be trumped by any other piece of legislation if need be. But only after the draft has passed through a special committee appointed by the Ministry of Justice, and that committee agrees (I was once part of a team that drafted a Bill and had to take it before that committee - twice). For example the Mental Health Act allows for compulsory treatment in specific circumstances. The Health Act can also require compulsory incarceration in the case of infectious illnesses. Pre-Covid I recall a case where a guy with TB ended up in prison because he kept leaving hospital while infectious.




 True they can get around it if they have to. 

 Our cops are reasonably laid back though. In Dunedin the 4:20 crowd occupied the cop shop for a smoke up. No arrests. 

 They don't really break up protests or anything. Don't carry guns or riot gear.

Coronavirus: More than a thousand turn out for anti-lockdown rally in Auckland

 There's one in the photo.

 Been to some epic street parties down here they should have broken up.


----------



## Hussar

Garthanos said:


> As I said the difference is a decision to rule/declare that not vaccinating is indeed neglecting and not providing fundamental healthcare. I am not saying they have done this... just that the step is not really that huge  Tetanus and Rabies can you picture an anti-vaxxers kids there are some horrible ways to die and these are what they withhold protection from.
> 
> It almost seems like Munchausens by proxy.




Just to nitpick - you don't get vaccinations for Tetanus or Rabies unless you have a specific reason for getting them.  It's not a general vaccination.  At least, I know Rabies isn't.  Tetanus isn't in Canada.  (I know, because I needed tetanus shots after an accident.  Thankfully didn't need rabies shots.  Yikes those are brutal).

And, on the point about Bills of Rights and things like that, I imagine New Zealand is similar to Canada in that our Bill of Rights (Charter of Rights in Canada) is based on British Common Law (IIRC - that's the right term.  Damn, it's been a long time since I studied this) which means that your rights are kind of inverse to how they are elucidated in the States.  IOW, in Canada (and I imagine NZ is the same) you have the right to do whatever the hell you want, except what the Charter says you can't do.  So, we automatically have the right to bear arms, for example, even though that will never be specified in our Charter.  Our Charter has nothing to say about what rights you have, just what limitations there are on them.  

It's a different approach and it makes comparisons between countries a bit difficult.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Just to nitpick - you don't get vaccinations for Tetanus or Rabies unless you have a specific reason for getting them.  It's not a general vaccination.  At least, I know Rabies isn't.  Tetanus isn't in Canada.  (I know, because I needed tetanus shots after an accident.  Thankfully didn't need rabies shots.  Yikes those are brutal).
> 
> And, on the point about Bills of Rights and things like that, I imagine New Zealand is similar to Canada in that our Bill of Rights (Charter of Rights in Canada) is based on British Common Law (IIRC - that's the right term.  Damn, it's been a long time since I studied this) which means that your rights are kind of inverse to how they are elucidated in the States.  IOW, in Canada (and I imagine NZ is the same) you have the right to do whatever the hell you want, except what the Charter says you can't do.  So, we automatically have the right to bear arms, for example, even though that will never be specified in our Charter.  Our Charter has nothing to say about what rights you have, just what limitations there are on them.
> 
> It's a different approach and it makes comparisons between countries a bit difficult.




 I had to you for flu vaccine in lockdown. 

 Nurse had PPE on and had to sit in a chair in an old garage.

 May as well have used me as a dart board. 

 Looks like our Bill of Rights is more the Bill of Suggestions. Not that I distrust the government can't really complain in that regard. 

 There's talk of making malicious lies illegal. No idea how they'll make that work.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> "Everyone has the right to refuse any medical treatment"



(I am pretty sure this is fairly common here too even without it being constitutionally defined). However the laws I am talking about are those about child welfare ie those about caretaker Neglect and child endangerment and abuse laws.  And refusing "needed" medical treatment is defined as neglect/abuse (sometimes prosecuted the same here)


Hussar said:


> Just to nitpick - you don't get vaccinations for Tetanus or Rabies unless you have a specific reason for getting them.  It's not a general vaccination.  At least, I know Rabies isn't.  Tetanus isn't in Canada.  (I know, because I needed tetanus shots after an accident.  Thankfully didn't need rabies shots.  Yikes those are brutal).



Yes I picked them as examples where it seems most likely one could say not providing these would OBVIOUSLY be neglect of needed treatment or abuse as they can be done after the fact. Rabies always is but in the states Tetanus is not it's done preemptively and "required" and lasts well over 10 years, I see them as a potential starting point legally. The fear of the "evil" vaccine is not necessarily going to distinguish. 

In the US all 50 states have laws that require school children to be vaccinated against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis ; hepatitis (HBV); measles and rubella (MMR vaccine); polio (IPV vaccine); and varicella (chickenpox). The laws allowing non-medical exemptions are problematic. 

The current state of affairs has people doing lawsuits against parents who did not vaccinate their children who subsequent fell ill and infected others. So its basically civil court pressure instead of being treated as neglect.

 If a parent does not comply with a school’s policy, the child will not be allowed to attend, and the parent can then be arrested for the child’s truancy. So many anti-vaxxers choose to homeschool their children (difficulties doing this may also be why its well off people who anti-vaxx it is a "first world" problem )

So the law is really isn't protecting these children in the current form I think it should.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> There's talk of making malicious lies illegal. No idea how they'll make that work.



Put the us president in the penitentiary that would LOL 

There are already some lies which are illegal here at least Libel/Slander are.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Put the us president in the penitentiary that would LOL
> 
> There are already some lies which are illegal here at least Libel/Slander are.




 We've really only got one outright fruit loops in parliment and I think he will be unemployed in about a month. If I lived in that Electorate I would do a split vote to get rid of him. 

 They tried the crazy approach lite but the more or less semi sane opposition bleed support out and are below 30% in the polls and have a 0.1% chance of winning apparently. 

Sub 30% is a long way from 51% with proportional. 

 Terms like landslide, most popular leader ever, first time since 1951, are being thrown around. 

 Play fun and games with Covid don't get rewarded. Maybe they'll delay the election again. Give the nutters more time to enjoy the taste of shoe leather.


----------



## Cadence

Hussar said:


> Just to nitpick - you don't get vaccinations for Tetanus or Rabies unless you have a specific reason for getting them.  It's not a general vaccination.  At least, I know Rabies isn't.  Tetanus isn't in Canada.  (I know, because I needed tetanus shots after an accident.  Thankfully didn't need rabies shots.  Yikes those are brutal).




Tetanus boosters are recommended every 10 years (although it looks like recent studies show the effects might last longer). Here if you don't know if you had one or when it was, they'll give you another after an accident just in case. As @Garthanos notes, the tetanus one is bundled with several others for children.

Doing our genealogies, I think there were at least two relatives a few generations back who died by tetanus in various parts of the family.


----------



## Garthanos

billd91 said:


> Seriously, I can't underline strenuously enough how much judicial partisanship/politicking can derange their decisions.



Recent railroading into office of partisan judges by the Senate 100s of them is doubly terrifying


----------



## MoonSong

Yesterday the official death toll in my country surpassed 70,000. And I say official because only people dying in hospitals are counted. And yesterday was a very lethal day with over 700 deaths when previous days averaged in the 500 deaths. And yesterday was also the first day in a while I left the house by foot. I couldn't believe how many people weren't wearing the masks properly and how many more were wearing nothing. I'm frustrated with the poor leadership, with a president that refuses to wear a mask or endorse wearing one -or even worry about the emergency, he has gone so far as to imply the dead had a moral failling or somehow deserved it for being corrupt- and the spineless bootlicking stooges that keep enabling him. There are words that could express the frustration and fear I feel about this, but they are in Spanish and they would break the grandma rule so I'm not going to tell them.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> Yesterday the official death toll in my country surpassed 70,000. And I say official because only people dying in hospitals are counted. And yesterday was a very lethal day with over 700 deaths when previous days averaged in the 500 deaths. And yesterday was also the first day in a while I left the house by foot. I couldn't believe how many people weren't wearing the masks properly and how many more were wearing nothing. I'm frustrated with the poor leadership, with a president that refuses to wear a mask or endorse wearing one -or even worry about the emergency, he has gone so far as to imply the dead had a moral failling or somehow deserved it for being corrupt- and the spineless bootlicking stooges that keep enabling him. There are words that could express the frustration and fear I feel about this, but they are in Spanish and they would break the grandma rule so I'm not going to tell them.




 Mexico? I've got an Argentinian poster translating news from the area on another site. He's not sure o impressed with his government either.


----------



## Cadence

School update.  Active cases are way down.


----------



## Zardnaar

Very slight easing of border restrictions. 

 Partners of Kiwis from Australia and a few other countries can get in. Not sure what the other countries are apart from Aussie but maybe Singapore and  some of the dominion's and Pacific Islands.

10% of qurantine to be used for highly skilled workers if reelected. 









						Immigration changes: Landscape shifts for workers, visitors and employers
					

Analysis - No fewer than five announcements in the last week have changed the immigration landscape for some workers, visitors and employers, Gill Bonnett writes.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Cadence

Active cases at the University are way down (but so is the number of tests being done).  Quarantine space is less than 20% used (after being near 80 a bit over a week ago). 

The City of Columbia extends the face mask ordinance into November:


			https://www.thestate.com/news/local/article245755510.html
		


Some folks are unhappy with that:


			https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article245747590.html
		


Will be playing yet another MtG prerelease at home with my (now) 11yo.


----------



## Zardnaar

Several days of 0 or 1 new case per day in the community. Few more caught in qurantine.

  Going to level ,1 on Monday, D&D next week. Under current rules can do home games but not at store.

0 new cases community. 1 in qurantine,1 death.









						Man dies from Covid-19 in Waikato Hospital, one new case at border
					

Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield says the man's whānau asked him to tell NZ coronavirus is 'so real' and to be vigilant and cautious.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Zardnaar

Official numbers released today. GDP down by 12.2%. Election next month. Unemployment up next decade gonna suck.





 Prime minister in a crowd. She's the one with the phone.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Official numbers released today. GDP down by 12.2%. Election next month. Unemployment up next decade gonna suck.
> 
> View attachment 126312
> 
> Prime minister in a crowd. She's the one with the phone.



That picture makes me feel claustrophobic.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> That picture makes me feel claustrophobic.




 Not touchy feely or just been a while?


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> Not touchy feely or just been a while?



The pandemic in the US a nightmare. If that picture were happening in the US, the next few weeks there'd be a surge of cases. No social distancing, no masks. I have 2020 PTSD, but without the "post" part.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> The pandemic in the US a nightmare. If that picture were happening in the US, the next few weeks there'd be a surge of cases. No social distancing, no masks. I have 2020 PTSD, but without the "post" part.




 We don't have to worry about Covid to much but they expect the border to be closed until 2022, 10 years of crap economy and there's a housing crisis that's been going for a few years but has got absurd.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> We don't have to worry about Covid to much but they expect the border to be closed until 2022, 10 years of crap economy and there's a housing crisis that's been going for a few years but has got absurd.



Yeah. I'm jealous that you guys can do stuff like that.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yeah. I'm jealous that you guys can do stuff like that.




 I'm jealous you can buy a house in America for less than half a million dollars.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Zardnaar said:


> I'm jealous you can buy a house in America for less than half a million dollars.



Depends on where you live.


----------



## Garthanos

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Depends on where you live.



175k acterage in my city


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Depends on where you live.




Here it's more or less everywhere. Whole countries turning into California or Seattle.

Last I looked we had 17000 houses left total and with Covid 40000 kiwis have returned.

At that rate probably gonna be full up by the end of the year. Nurses for example are going to struggle in the cities and that's where the hospitals are.

 Even in the boondocks our equivalent of the rust belt it's still several hundred thousand dollars. I think that place had prices go up 27% in 3 months.

 That's the cheapest part of the country. Covid borrowing money is essentially free and it's been building over the last decade or two.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> 175k acterage in my city




Even with the currency difference that's less than 300k NZD. You probably couldn't get anything locally at that price, at $280k USD you can get a do'er upper.

  And I live in the cheap city. Aucklands basically double that.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Even with the currency difference that's less than 300k NZD. You probably couldn't get anything locally at that price, at $280k USD you can get a do'er upper.
> 
> And I live in the cheap city. Aucklands basically double that.



an old gramma house can be acquired for 75k usd here  The 175k is kind of a nice house in my opinion. We did not have a housing crisis here unlike the coast


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> an old gramma house can be acquired for 75k usd here  The 175k is kind of a nice house in my opinion. We did not have a housing crisis here unlike the coast




You wouldn't get a house here for that price. Maybe a section with a ruin in rural NZ falling apart.

If you went to the worst part of the country and don't mind gang members or a meth house next door I think the absolute cheapest you can find is about $140k and that was a year ago.

Job losses starting, if you have job, own house or bought one a few years ahead. It's rough on the young and anyone ending up on welfare.

 It's our version of the US stock market I suppose as a side effect of Covid and government stimulus.


----------



## Cadence

@Zardnaar  - 195 sq.meters, almost 1 acre lot, 5 miles from state capital around $225k.  But don't worry, our politicians are desperately trying to figure out how to blow up our economy...  (with destroying the global climate as a back-up).

Is there any talk there of a glut of certain kinds of houses (especially bigger more expensive ones) when the baby boomers start dying in greater numbers?

---

In COVID related things, looks like the kids doing all virutal learning (instead of 2 days in school 3 days out) get no elective courses (so just math, English, social studies, and science).  They're still having high school and middle school sports though, just with limited seating.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> @Zardnaar  - 195 sq.meters, almost 1 acre lot, 5 miles from state capital around $225k.  But don't worry, our politicians are desperately trying to figure out how to blow up our economy...  (with destroying the global climate as a back-up).
> 
> Is there any talk there of a glut of certain kinds of houses (especially bigger more expensive ones) when the baby boomers start dying in greater numbers?
> 
> ---
> 
> In COVID related things, looks like the kids doing all virutal learning (instead of 2 days in school 3 days out) get no elective courses (so just math, English, social studies, and science).  They're still having high school and middle school sports though, just with limited seating.




NZ houses not usually that size. 195 so.metres is a large house. Houses probably more like 100-130 sq.metres.

  Boomers getting blamed but if they die off their kids probably inherit. No inheritance or capital gains tax. Not really going to put vastly more houses on the market.

With border closures they figured it would relieve pressure but now there's kiwis coming back either fleeing Covid or job losses so come home.

 They're relaxing the border rules do non citizen partners can enter soon although you would assume they will move into existing households.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> NZ houses not usually that size. 195 so.metres is a large house. Houses probably more like 100-130 sq.metres.
> 
> Boomers getting blamed but if they die off their kids probably inherit. No inheritance or capital gains tax. Not really going to put vastly more houses on the market.




We spent a generation or two or three in the US buying bigger things for ourselves and not building infrastructure or a vaguely even economic playing field.

From 1920 to 1940 the average new house was around 1100 sq ft, so approx. 100 sq. m
By 1975 we were up to 150 sq. m, and by 2015 up to 250 sq. m







For the inheritence, what do the kids do with the house when it's in a quickly shrinking town or small city in the midwestern US and they live 100+ miles away?  Some cities have purchased and  torn down entire mostly-vacant neighborhoods over the past decade to turn into green space.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Official numbers released today. GDP down by 12.2%. Election next month. Unemployment up next decade gonna suck.
> 
> View attachment 126312
> 
> Prime minister in a crowd. She's the one with the phone.



What! Where is the social distancing!


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

cbwjm said:


> What! Where is the social distancing!



They don't need it. That's New Zealand.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Even with the currency difference that's less than 300k NZD. You probably couldn't get anything locally at that price, at $280k USD you can get a do'er upper.
> 
> And I live in the cheap city. Aucklands basically double that.



Go live out somewhere really inconvenient in a terrible run down house and you can get something for less than 100k, but why would you want to? 

I remember looking at houses in Turua where I grew up, small town (if you can use the term town) and house prices were ridiculous, I think 600k+


----------



## cbwjm

AcererakTriple6 said:


> They don't need it. That's New Zealand.



I know, I live there. There are social distancing regulations in place but really only Auckland (where I live) has to worry about it.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Go live out somewhere really inconvenient in a terrible run down house and you can get something for less than 100k, but why would you want to?
> 
> I remember looking at houses in Turua where I grew up, small town (if you can use the term town) and house prices were ridiculous, I think 600k+




I grew up in Oamaru. Last I looked they were hitting $400k.

Some interesting conversations on r/new Zealand about rent and house prices. I think Westport was the last "cheap" town left.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Official numbers released today. GDP down by 12.2%. Election next month. Unemployment up next decade gonna suck.
> 
> View attachment 126312
> 
> Prime minister in a crowd. She's the one with the phone.



picture makes me hopeful... that things like that can be real still


----------



## GreyLord

Zardnaar said:


> I grew up in Oamaru. Last I looked they were hitting $400k.
> 
> Some interesting conversations on r/new Zealand about rent and house prices. I think Westport was the last "cheap" town left.




That's actually not bad for much of the US (there is the midwest where prices are dirt low, but in much of the US prices seem to go for an average size home between 250K-350K.  That's around 268K USD if the conversion on google is right.

If you live more towards where the population of the US lives though, that's cheap as well.  House prices in the urban areas of California are going for 1-2 million for an average sized house when I was looking out there, and in Urban cities elsewhere houses are going for 400K-500K USD where I was looking (which appears to be around 600-750K in New Zealand money? according to google conversions).

I suppose it's all about location, location, location.


----------



## Hussar

Heh.  You guys have no idea what housing prices are like.  I live in a small town in the poorest part of Japan (Kyushu) and a 15 year old 3 bedroom house on a tiny lot runs about 300k USD.  In the cities?  Good luck.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Heh.  You guys have no idea what housing prices are like.  I live in a small town in the poorest part of Japan (Kyushu) and a 15 year old 3 bedroom house on a tiny lot runs about 300k USD.  In the cities?  Good luck.




100 year old house in my city. May or may not have insulation. Big section though.

They thought due to Covid prices go down. They're surging instead.





That big house top and middle sold not to long ago. Think it went for $740k ($518k U SD approx). 

 That red brick ones like that are popular. Not sure how much it would go for but won't be cheap. Unless you're from Auckland. Probably built 60s or 70s.


----------



## Imaculata

The other week my family held a family weekend in a house that they had rented, but I politely declined. That many people together in one house, even with social distancing, is a blatant disregard for the rules. I thought my family would be smarter than that.

This week my mother is celebrating her birthday at a cafe with lots of people, and again I politely declined. But now the emotional blackmail starts. _"Oh, I would be really disappointed if you didn't show up"_. She's ignoring the Corona rules, and I'm the bad guy?! It pisses me off. It is like everyone wants everyone else to make the sacrifices, but oh no, not our birthday party.

For crying out loud, it is only one year. Just one year! Just stay inside and don't do social gatherings. How hard can that be?!


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> The other week my family held a family weekend in a house that they had rented, but I politely declined. That many people together in one house, even with social distancing, is a blatant disregard for the rules. I thought my family would be smarter than that.
> 
> This week my mother is celebrating her birthday at a cafe with lots of people, and again I politely declined. But now the emotional blackmail starts. _"Oh, I would be really disappointed if you didn't show up"_. She's ignoring the Corona rules, and I'm the bad guy?! It pisses me off. It is like everyone wants everyone else to make the sacrifices, but oh no, not our birthday party.
> 
> For crying out loud, it is only one year. Just one year! Just stay inside and don't do social gatherings. How hard can that be?!




 What we did in lockdown (wife's family all live in same suburb they grew up in) is we walked around to the houses to "visit" but they stayed on the porch and we stayed at the gate and talked over the fence.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

All of this talk of housing prices...


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> All of this talk of housing prices...




 Heh even I get that and I'm not a trekkie.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> The other week my family held a family weekend in a house that they had rented, but I politely declined. That many people together in one house, even with social distancing, is a blatant disregard for the rules. I thought my family would be smarter than that.
> 
> This week my mother is celebrating her birthday at a cafe with lots of people, and again I politely declined. But now the emotional blackmail starts. _"Oh, I would be really disappointed if you didn't show up"_. She's ignoring the Corona rules, and I'm the bad guy?! It pisses me off. It is like everyone wants everyone else to make the sacrifices, but oh no, not our birthday party.
> 
> For crying out loud, it is only one year. Just one year! Just stay inside and don't do social gatherings. How hard can that be?!



We’re planning our holiday meals...with social distancing in mind.  

Usually, our house is the center for the big gatherings.  We’re centrally located, and, at the risk of sounding like a braggart, I’m a damn good cook.  Big gatherings, I get to show off.  This year’s uninvited guest has changed all that.  We’re still planning on me doing some serious cooking, but there will be NO gathering.  

Instead, starting tomorrow, I will begin cooking some of the side dishes we’d usually serve for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and to a lesser extent, New Years, and packaging them up in the freezer in moderately sized bundles.*  And some of those frozen sides will be delivered to the houses of our usual invitees.

On the day of the actual holidays, we’ll take some out, thaw, and eat, along with a moderate sized bird or some such.

Hopefully, those that can do so will reciprocate.




* No full menu plan as yet, but tomorrow’s dish is turnip greens.  Other likely suspects include maque choux, mirliton, and oyster dressing


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We’re planning our holiday meals...with social distancing in mind.
> 
> Usually, our house is the center for the big gatherings.  We’re centrally located, and, at the risk of sounding like a braggart, I’m a damn good cook.  Big gatherings, I get to show off.  This year’s uninvited guest has changed all that.  We’re still planning on me doing some serious cooking, but there will be NO gathering.
> 
> Instead, starting tomorrow, I will begin cooking some of the side dishes we’d usually serve for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and to a lesser extent, New Years, and packaging them up in the freezer in moderately sized bundles.*  And some of those frozen sides will be delivered to the houses of our usual invitees.
> 
> On the day of the actual holidays, we’ll take some out, thaw, and eat, along with a moderate sized bird or some such.
> 
> Hopefully, those that can do so will reciprocate.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> * No full menu plan as yet, but tomorrow’s dish is turnip greens.  Other likely suspects include maque choux, mirliton, and oyster dressing




 I have severe doubts in your ability to cook. Please send samples to prove otherwise to. 

Lazy chunky monkey
123 Eat Now Street
Dunedin 
NZ

 I suggest expedited air freight tyvm (ducks). Chartered private jet can also work.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> I have severe doubts in your ability to cook. Please send samples to prove otherwise to.
> 
> Lazy chunky monkey
> 123 Eat Now Street
> Dunedin
> NZ
> 
> I suggest expedited air freight tyvm (ducks). Chartered private jet can also work.



Do you know the airspeed velocity of a laden duck?


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Do you know the airspeed velocity of a laden duck?




 Not off the top of my head no. 

  Today's numbers

0 new cases, 4th day running

Total Active cases 70
Community cases 37
Hospital 4
ICU 0

 Looks like Vietnam has also done well 2.0.


----------



## Hussar

Spiking a bit here, but, still hovering around the 500 mark.  Considering the population density, I think that's pretty much what they're shooting for.  Manageable cases.


----------



## Cadence

Not D&D, but yet another MtG prerelease at home... this time in the long break between the 11 yo's virtual classes.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Do you know the airspeed velocity of a laden duck?



If it is laden with gear, then check its normal carrying capacity and the encumbrance rules (hopefully there is an implied formula involved).

If it is laden with stuffing, then velocity = 0.


----------



## billd91

Imaculata said:


> The other week my family held a family weekend in a house that they had rented, but I politely declined. That many people together in one house, even with social distancing, is a blatant disregard for the rules. I thought my family would be smarter than that.
> 
> This week my mother is celebrating her birthday at a cafe with lots of people, and again I politely declined. But now the emotional blackmail starts. _"Oh, I would be really disappointed if you didn't show up"_. She's ignoring the Corona rules, and I'm the bad guy?! It pisses me off. It is like everyone wants everyone else to make the sacrifices, but oh no, not our birthday party.
> 
> For crying out loud, it is only one year. Just one year! Just stay inside and don't do social gatherings. How hard can that be?!




For some people, it's extremely hard.
But you could always return the emotional blackmail with _"Oh, I would be really disappointed if you died of COVID-19."_


----------



## Cadence

Doomed...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Cadence said:


> Doomed...


----------



## Deset Gled

Cadence said:


> Doomed...




A game I sometimes play is "Who's the stupidest person in this video?"

Normally, a person who says "The normal flu is worse than COVID" starts out in the lead.  But in this case it's a kid who has clearly not been given a chance to know any better (I believe the phrase would be "Bless his heart" in Tennessee vernacular).

The principal who isn't wearing a mask and blames the governor is up there.  As a person of authority, he should be taking responsibility for keeping his students safe instead of passing the buck.

The grandma who says masks are the tools of child molesters was really going for gold.  But then the woman who compared wearing a mask to the fate of Eric Garner* swooped in.  Those two are neck-and-neck in the battle of co-opting real issues for their own idiocy.

But throughout all that, you also have to think back to the first person you see: the reporter, who is pointedly not wearing a mask.  I guess it's nice that she didn't have a sign or shout slogans on camera, but it's hard to imagine a less impartial way to cover the event.

So in the end, who wins the game?  No one.  We all lose.

*Edit: Sorry, should be George Floyd.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Deset Gled said:


> A game I sometimes play is "Who's the stupidest person in this video?"
> 
> Normally, a person who says "The normal flu is worse than COVID" starts out in the lead.  But in this case it's a kid who has clearly not been given a chance to know any better (I believe the phrase would be "Bless his heart" in Tennessee vernacular).
> 
> The principal who isn't wearing a mask and blames the governor is up there.  As a person of authority, he should be taking responsibility for keeping his students safe instead of passing the buck.
> 
> The grandma who says masks are the tools of child molesters was really going for gold.  But then the woman who compared wearing a mask to the fate of Eric Garner swooped in.  Those two are neck-and-neck in the battle of co-opting real issues for their own idiocy.
> 
> But throughout all that, you also have to think back to the first person you see: the reporter, who is pointedly not wearing a mask.  I guess it's nice that she didn't have a sign or shout slogans on camera, but it's hard to imagine a less impartial way to cover the event.
> 
> So in the end, who wins the game?  No one.  We all lose.



Gosh, this year is so crazy. Can someone finish Jumanji? I'm tired of playing this nightmare game.


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Can someone finish Jumanji? I'm tired of playing this nightmare game.



The folks in the video above are trying to rig a roll of the dice to reach FINISH without triggering another over-the-top chaos event.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Eltab said:


> The folks in the video above are trying to rig a roll of the dice to reach FINISH without triggering another over-the-top chaos event.



What's next, we all start growing tails, and this becomes Planet of the Monkeys?


----------



## Istbor

Cadence said:


> Doomed...




My favorite is the woman equating George Floyd having a literal knee being pressed against the back of his neck, to being forced to wear a mask, which she was presently not being forced to wear.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Istbor said:


> My favorite is the woman equating George Floyd having a literal knee being pressed against the back of his neck, to being forced to wear a mask, which she was presently not being forced to wear.



Whenever I see someone claim that they can't breath with a mask on, I just want to shout at them that doctors and nurses often have to wear masks for hours straight, and we don't see them dropping dead of asphyxiation because of it.


----------



## Istbor

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Whenever I see someone claim that they can't breath with a mask on, I just want to shout at them that doctors and nurses often have to wear masks for hours straight, and we don't see them dropping dead of asphyxiation because of it.




Yeah. I mean... I should be dead right now right? I have had to wear a mask while working for months now. How am I still alive even!?!


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Instead, starting tomorrow, I will begin cooking some of the side dishes we’d usually serve for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and to a lesser extent, New Years, and packaging them up in the freezer in moderately sized bundles.*  And some of those frozen sides will be delivered to the houses of our usual invitees.




We have a similar idea here.  We normally hae an "Orphan's Thanksgiving" for folks who couldn't be with family or other loved ones for the holiday. It is perhaps the highlight of my wife's year, the event she is most enthusiastic about.  Of course, this year, that's not happening.

So, we'll be cooking, and packing up, Thanskgiving dinner for friends, and either having them come and pick up or I'll deliver them.


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> What's next, we all start growing tails, and this becomes Planet of the Monkeys?



That hunter who was chasing Robin Williams' character - a whole safari of 'em - hunting people because they are "looking for a new challenge".


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Eltab said:


> That hunter who was chasing Robin Williams' character - a whole safari of 'em - hunting people because they are "looking for a new challenge".



Those genetically engineered mosquitos that are being released grow super huge, start sucking blood, and spread more diseases?


----------



## Hussar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Those genetically engineered mosquitos that are being released grow super huge, start sucking blood, and spread more diseases?




A bit too close to the truth for comfort there:









						Michiganders urged to stay indoors as officials race to stop the spread of a dangerous mosquito-borne disease | CNN
					

Not only are Michigan health officials dealing with the coronavirus, but they're also trying to contain the spread of a rare mosquito-borne disease.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Those genetically engineered mosquitos that are being released grow super huge, start sucking blood, and spread more diseases?



_Gamma World_ thought of that (minus the disease part) back in 1980.  They are overdue.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Hussar said:


> A bit too close to the truth for comfort there:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Michiganders urged to stay indoors as officials race to stop the spread of a dangerous mosquito-borne disease | CNN
> 
> 
> Not only are Michigan health officials dealing with the coronavirus, but they're also trying to contain the spread of a rare mosquito-borne disease.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> edition.cnn.com





Eltab said:


> _Gamma World_ thought of that (minus the disease part) back in 1980.  They are overdue.



Great. That sounds great. Thanks 2020


----------



## Imaculata

Can this year get any worse? When does Godzilla show up?


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> Can this year get any worse? When does Godzilla show up?




 Silence!!!!!

 Pessimist outlook pandemic into depression into war into nuclear bomb detonation.


----------



## ccs

Imaculata said:


> Can this year get any worse?




Yes.  Yes it can.

Personally I have "Politicians in Nov." on my Bingo card.


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> Yes.  Yes it can.
> 
> Personally I have "Politicians in Nov." on my Bingo card.




  Got a spare for me? 

 I'm playing bingo next month. My cards reasonably good though. 

  2020 an improvement over 2018 personally but that's just me.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Imaculata said:


> Can this year get any worse?



Easily. Don't tempt the fates, or aliens might invade.


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Easily. Don't tempt the fates, or aliens might invade.



This year we've had such a string of bad luck, we should be due for a break*:  
We will get the aliens from _War of the Worlds_ and their weakness will be COVID.

* Lifted from _Hunt for Fed October_


----------



## Imaculata

I made the difficult decision to not meet with my mother for an undetermined time. This news will land hard with her so shortly before her birthday, but it is the best thing to do at the time. I care deeply about the people around me, and I don't want to put them at risk. There are people in my street who can barely walk after 'recovering' from COVID. This is a scary disease that leaves people with permanent damage to their muscles. If certain people in my life don't take it serious enough, it is dangerous for me and those I care about, to hang out with them. If she believes it is fine to have parties and be in one space with large amounts of people, then I can't trust her to behave carefully elsewhere. And that puts me and my friends at risk.


----------



## Zardnaar

All restrictions removed in about 3.5 hours.
 Functionally business as usual. 

0 cases today, think we had 2 in last week or so.









						Cabinet agrees to move Auckland to level 2 and rest of New Zealand to level 1
					

Auckland is to move to Covid alert level 2 at 11.59pm on Wednesday and the rest of the country will shift to level 1 tonight, PM Jacinda Ardern has announced.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Auckland still at level 2.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> I made the difficult decision to not meet with my mother for an undetermined time. This news will land hard with her so shortly before her birthday, but it is the best thing to do at the time. I care deeply about the people around me, and I don't want to put them at risk. There are people in my street who can barely walk after 'recovering' from COVID. This is a scary disease, and if certain people in my life don't take it serious enough, it is dangerous for me and those I care about, to hang out with them. If she believes it is fine to have parties and be in one space with large amounts of people, then I can't trust her to behave carefully elsewhere. And that puts me and my friends at risk.



You made the right- though clearly difficult- choice.  Your priorities in order.

My barber of the past decade+ lost his brother to C19, and passed on going to the funeral because he knew others with the virus were going.  He’s just had a kid with his 2nd wife- no way in hell he was going to jeopardize his newborn.


----------



## Imaculata

Dannyalcatraz said:


> My barber of the past decade+ lost his brother to C19, and passed on going to the funeral because he knew others with the virus were going.  He’s just had a kid with his 2nd wife- no way in hell he was going to jeopardize his newborn.




Incredible. That is such a difficult choice to make, but clearly also the right call.


----------



## Ryujin

This continues to be the worst timeline.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> This continues to be the worst timeline.




This is like daring the cosmos to make it _even worse_.  "Oh, you think this is bad?  Try _this_...!"

Our issues this year are almost entirley of our own collective making.  If this is the worst timeline, it is our own darned fault.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> This is like daring the cosmos to make it _even worse_.  "Oh, you think this is bad?  Try _this_...!"
> 
> Our issues this year are almost entirley of our own collective making.  If this is the worst timeline, it is our own darned fault.



That's the worst part of it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

What I’m hearing is that I shouldn’t launch my Kickstarter for asteroid-attracting magnets, then.

Or start selling my cursed sarcophagus dowsing rods.


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> What I’m hearing is that I shouldn’t launch my Kickstarter for asteroid-attracting magnets, then.
> 
> Or start selling my cursed sarcophagus dowsing rods.




yeah, might want to hold off on those for a quarter or two.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> What I’m hearing is that I shouldn’t launch my Kickstarter for asteroid-attracting magnets, then.
> 
> Or start selling my cursed sarcophagus dowsing rods.




Depends on how karmically aligned those items are...


----------



## ccs

Dannyalcatraz said:


> What I’m hearing is that I shouldn’t launch my Kickstarter for asteroid-attracting magnets, then.




That sounds like exactly what I need!  
I'll let you know where to ship it so it can get to work.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Now, whether they’re going to ENFORCE the order is another matter entirely.  There’s at least one sheriff in Ohio who has publicly stated he won’t enforce such ordinances and actually ordered his deputies to go about their duties unmasked.  Similarly, sheriffs in Denton, Houston, Montgomery, Gillespie, Upshur, Kerr, Gregg, Nacogdoches and Panola counties in Texas have likewise refused to enforce the Governor’s masking order, citing “unenforceability” and logistical issues.  So far as I know, none of those 10 LEOs has gotten any kind of reprimand.




Add Utah County (Utah) to the list.









						Utah County Sheriff: 'The issue for me is not the mask. It is the approach.'
					

The Utah County Sheriff took to Facebook to give a deeper explanation about prior statements that he will not have his deputies arrest people for violating mask mandates, should any such mandates be ordered. On Sunday, Sheriff Mike Smith responded to a question on Facebook that asked:




					kutv.com


----------



## Eltab

Gasp - the Sheriff wants the Public Health Authorities to address a contagious disease!  Who'd'a thunk?


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> Add Utah County (Utah) to the list.




There's a major hole in this guy's argument...

"Smith went on to say that wearing facial masks is a health issue, a community issue, and should be addressed as such. He said, "It should not be criminalized.""

So, the Sheriff has missed a point - we have laws concerning health issues.  If a restaurant does not keep to minimum health or safety standards it gets closed down, and fines are assessed.  This can be up to and including law enforcement officers coming in and ejecting people from the premises and chaining the doors shut and even taking people to jail.

On top of this, this isn't just a "health issue", it is a health _crisis_. The departments that normally handle community health issues are not staffed to handle full-population crises, because such crises are not common. Would the sheriff be so kind as to hand over much of his budget and personnel so that those areas can be staffed, and his people out enforcing codes, orders, and regulations without guns? I'll be happy to have those staff shifted on a temporary basis!


----------



## Cadence

Eltab said:


> Gasp - the Sheriff wants the Public Health Authorities to address a contagious disease!  Who'd'a thunk?




If only the health authorities had the power and budget to enforce things against individuals?  (In most states, do they even have the manpower to inspect restaurants and the like as often as they're supposed to?).

He did sound pretty reasonable in an interview a few months ago: Utah County Sheriff's Office outlines policy changes during civil unrest | Local News | heraldextra.com

Reading the article does have me wondering how bike safety training fits in to budgets and the like.


----------



## Eltab

Cadence said:


> If only the health authorities had the power and budget to enforce things against individuals?



More like, if only they had the motivation and a plan - even a generic skeleton of a plan - and the decision to follow it.  We've been getting policies that have not been used in living memory, which are not working as expected (which may be why nobody has used them in a century).

After all the spending due to Corona and the unpleasant side-effects of our mis-aimed response, I cannot take seriously "but no budget!" - what DID you spend all that money on?  

Six months and counting of grandstanding and berating the public but doing nothing to separate out the sick from the healthy, I don't have any more sympathy for the usual bureaucratic excuses for nonperformance.  If the public health authorities haven't figured it out by now, they can quit (or be fired) and be replaced with somebody who comes to their job interview equipped with a plan.


----------



## Cadence

Eltab said:


> More like, if only they had the motivation and a plan - even a generic skeleton of a plan - and the decision to follow it.  We've been getting policies that have not been used in living memory, which are not working as expected (which may be why nobody has used them in a century).
> 
> After all the spending due to Corona and the unpleasant side-effects of our mis-aimed response, I cannot take seriously "but no budget!" - what DID you spend all that money on?
> 
> Six months and counting of grandstanding and berating the public but doing nothing to separate out the sick from the healthy, I don't have any more sympathy for the usual bureaucratic excuses for nonperformance.  If the public health authorities haven't figured it out by now, they can quit (or be fired) and be replaced with somebody who comes to their job interview equipped with a plan.




It's almost like the local health agencies depend on the state and county councils for funding and have no mechanism to get money on their own?

Separate out? You mean like giving people 14 day quarantines and asking for testing and in many places having no one to force either to happen?


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> We've been getting policies that have not been used in living memory, which are not working as expected (which may be why nobody has used them in a century).




With respect, the issue is not with the policies.  If we actually wore masks*, and actually kept group gatherings down, and did so systematically, all evidence is that we'd already be well under control, and would probably have prevented 100,00+ deaths.

But, we didn't.  Too many people could not bring themselves to do this, and so we still have issues.



*The post office even had a plan to make sure every household had masks!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> With respect, the issue is not with the policies.  If we actually wore masks*, and actually kept group gatherings down, and did so systematically, all evidence is that we'd already be well under control, and would probably have prevented 100,00+ deaths.
> 
> But, we didn't.  Too many people could not bring themselves to do this, and so we still have issues.
> 
> 
> 
> *The post office even had a plan to make sure every household had masks!



Yep.

Japan has an older population, much higher population density, and no lockdown, just largely non-mandatory orders for closing businesses. Japan didn’t test like the WHO recommended. They didn’t close their borders like other success stories like NZ.

But Japan asked people to take care, stay away from crowded places, wear masks (90%+ compliance rate) and wash their hands - and by and large, that is exactly what most people have done.. Result? .8 deaths per 100k population. We’re sitting at 38.6 deaths per 100k population.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Japan has an older population, much higher population density, and no lockdown, just largely non-mandatory orders for closing businesses. Japan didn’t test like the WHO recommended. They didn’t close their borders like other success stories like NZ.
> 
> But Japan asked people to take care, stay away from crowded places, wear masks (90%+ compliance rate) and wash their hands - and by and large, that is exactly what most people have done.. Result? .8 deaths per 100k population. We’re sitting at 38.6 deaths per 100k population.




Japan had experience from the bird flu and swine flu and learned how to social distance, wear masks, and promote infrastructure to minimize the problem (e.g. better ventilation, etc).

The USA had the ebola scare and learned how to politicize it.


----------



## MoonSong

Dannyalcatraz said:


> But Japan asked people to take care, stay away from crowded places, wear masks (90%+ compliance rate) and wash their hands - and by and large, that is exactly what most people have done.. Result? .8 deaths per 100k population. *We’re sitting at 38.6 deaths per 100k population.*



I wish my country was that low (currently sitting at 60+ per 100k).

Edit: Seriously, I had expected we'd reach 75k deaths by Friday. However, after hearing today's report, it is likely we'll reach those tomorrow. T-T


----------



## Cadence

The weather really switched this past weekend (went from overnight lows from 63 to 76 to being in the 50s, and my sinuses rebelled on Monday.  Headache, drainage, a bit of a cough... the usual, but also extra aches and being tired.  I woke up Tuesday and still felt bleh, so I cancelled my in person class (teach Tuesday/Thursday).  Felt better throughout Tuesday, but then in the evening meh.  So, this AM go to schedule a COVID test through the University.

Web-page says to schedule a tele-health apt first.
Go to on-line page to do that, says I can't.
Find a tele-health consent form to sign.
Now it gives a message that says to call.
Call the appointment line, and apparently its set up for students who know what service group they're in.
Call the main health line, same thing.
Finally find a COVID hotline on a different page and call. 
Talk to a nurse and need to wait for call back on appt.
Got call back, and getting ready to drive in for test.  I assume its not, but what students want to be in class with a coughing/snorting instructor.

Anyway, cases at the University are down again (the high point was 1400 active cases at once and over 70% of quarantine space being used):


----------



## Istbor

Here the governor just extended the state mandate out to November. 

We have been seeing an uptick in cases, that's for sure. However, I have 100% been to places in my state where the pandemic doesn't exist and you won't see a mask anywhere. 

It is a decidedly creepy feeling. Especially when you have been living in a city where most are trying to follow mask wearing practices.


----------



## Garthanos

The dumbasses here in spite of the recent trend of more deaths are talking about sending kids to school instead of keeping it half in half out... I am pissed off my daughter does not need to be a vector.


----------



## Cadence

Garthanos said:


> The dumbasses here in spite of the recent trend of more deaths are talking about sending kids to school instead of keeping it half in half out... I am pissed off my daughter does not need to be a vector.




I keep checking what state you're in to see if its the same one.  It's not.


----------



## Garthanos

Cadence said:


> I keep checking what state you're in to see if its the same one.  It's not.



Republican State...


----------



## Eltab

Northeast Indiana, Corona cases by county:

County,  Current cases,  Cumulative total
Adams.                   1.            245
Allen (Ft. Wayne)  34.          6029
Dekalb.                   1.            470
Huntington.            0.            222
Kosciusko.             4.          1202
LaGrange.              0.            631
Noble.                     6.           891
Steuben.                 1.           370
Wabash.                 1.            261
Wells.                      0.           248
Whitley.                   1.           252

(formatting looks fine until I hit Send then the spaces collapse together)

We are supposed to believe that none of the counties have the resources to do contact tracing, broad-scale testing, isolation facilities, or take any of the other steps that would put COVID in their rear-view mirror for keeps.  Nor can they find the resources nor can they ask each other - or the State - for help.


----------



## ccs

Eltab said:


> Northeast Indiana, Corona cases by county:
> 
> County,  Current cases,  Cumulative total
> Adams.                   1.            245
> Allen (Ft. Wayne)  34.          6029
> Dekalb.                   1.            470
> Huntington.            0.            222
> Kosciusko.             4.          1202
> LaGrange.              0.            631
> Noble.                     6.           891
> Steuben.                 1.           370
> Wabash.                 1.            261
> Wells.                      0.           248
> Whitley.                   1.           252
> 
> (formatting looks fine until I hit Send then the spaces collapse together)
> 
> We are supposed to believe that none of the counties have the resources to do contact tracing, broad-scale testing, isolation facilities, or take any of the other steps that would put COVID in their rear-view mirror for keeps.  Nor can they find the resources nor can they ask each other - or the State - for help.




I bet they have resources for other things though.


----------



## Umbran

ccs said:


> I bet they have resources for other things though.




Municipalities are not generally free to move money around any way they please.  It isn't like you or I, who have one bank account and we spend it as we need it.


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> I keep checking what state you're in to see if its the same one.  It's not.




There's a surfeit of dumb*sses pretty much everywhere.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> There's a surfeit of dumb*sses pretty much everywhere.



Yeah. I live in Washington, which overall has dealt with pandemic control better than some. Unfortunately, my county and other more eastern regions of my state refused for the longest time to do simple things, like mask mandates, shut down unessential businesses, ban large gatherings and the like. This caused a rise in cases in our areas for a long time, until we finally started putting those in place months after the other regions of the state. 

Surprise, surprise. Only a few weeks after my city forced people to wear masks in public, our cases and deaths started plummeting. It's not like anyone could've predicted that


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Yeah. I live in Washington, which overall has dealt with pandemic control better than some. Unfortunately, my county and other more eastern regions of my state refused for the longest time to do simple things, like mask mandates, shut down unessential businesses, ban large gatherings and the like. This caused a rise in cases in our areas for a long time, until we finally started putting those in place months after the other regions of the state.
> 
> Surprise, surprise. Only a few weeks after my city forced people to wear masks in public, our cases and deaths started plummeting. It's not like anyone could've predicted that


----------



## ccs

Umbran said:


> Municipalities are not generally free to move money around any way they please.  It isn't like you or I, who have one bank account and we spend it as we need it.




I'm well aware of that.  But there's still things that can be done other than sticking your municipal head in the sand, shrugging, & hoping it just passes by.


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> I'm well aware of that.  But there's still things that can be done other than sticking your municipal head in the sand, shrugging, & hoping it just passes by.




 Blame MAD magazine. Wot me worry.


----------



## Hussar

Just a point about masking in Japan.  It's actually a fair bit longer than just the avian flu.  That didn't actually hit here all that hard.  But, ever since the Spanish Flu back a hundred years ago, they kept up the tradition of wearing masks.  And, back home, you get the flu, you stay home a day or two and go back to work, no biggie.  Here, you get the flu, you stay home from school, mandatory, two weeks.  If enough students catch the flu, they shut the school down.  They treat the flu really seriously here.  Far more than we ever did.


----------



## Umbran

ccs said:


> I'm well aware of that.  But there's still things that can be done other than sticking your municipal head in the sand, shrugging, & hoping it just passes by.




And actually admit how many things in the budget aren't that necessary?  Are you mad?

Or, perhaps in most places more accurately, there really isn't a whole lot of buffer in the budget.  The world is expensive, and moving money means that someone's losing out big time.  And, come election day, that's what they'll remember.

If you aren't actually a good enough leader to get your people agreeing on what needs to be done, doing a thing can be career suicide.


----------



## Istbor

Umbran said:


> And actually admit how many things in the budget aren't that necessary?  Are you mad?
> 
> Or, perhaps in most places more accurately, there really isn't a whole lot of buffer in the budget.  The world is expensive, and moving money means that someone's losing out big time.  And, come election day, that's what they'll remember.
> 
> If you aren't actually a good enough leader to get your people agreeing on what needs to be done, doing a thing can be career suicide.



Yeah. You could end up like that Lt. Governor from Ohio that got booed for telling fellow Republicans to maybe where a mask if asked. He even had some Trump masks to offer up.

I am not sure that really helped his career, even if it was the correct thing to try. In my opinion.

Who knows though in today's short attention spam world he might be just fine.

Meanwhile, my state just trashed the old record for most new cases in a day.

And I am expected to go to a gender reveal party this weekend? In a place I know most people completely ignore the pandemic. Already tried to convince my vulnerable parents this was a bad idea. Sigh...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Some still understand that a politician‘s first duty is to serve his constituents well, not getting re-elected.  And sometimes, that means saying or doing unpopular things.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/09/24/covid-parents-school-wisconsin/


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/09/24/covid-parents-school-wisconsin/




I really hate what certain political views have done to my state. These two counties are among the wealthiest in the state, their education levels should be good... then you look at how they vote and it becomes disturbingly clear.


----------



## Garthanos

billd91 said:


> I really hate what certain political views have done to my state. These two counties are among the wealthiest in the state, their education levels should be good... then you look at how they vote and it becomes disturbingly clear.



I have a state where if you look at how they vote on issues you see a solid amount of caring for people as as whole and when you see the pattern in the vote its for people who care the least, it is a question of tradition.


----------



## Imaculata

Istbor said:


> And I am expected to go to a gender reveal party this weekend? In a place I know most people completely ignore the pandemic. Already tried to convince my vulnerable parents this was a bad idea. Sigh...




After a gender reveal party started a huge fire in California again this year, maybe gender reveal parties should simply be banned. They are dumb anyway.



Dannyalcatraz said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/09/24/covid-parents-school-wisconsin/




That is simply criminal. Those parents should go to jail.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> After a gender reveal party started a huge fire in California again this year, maybe gender reveal parties should simply be banned. They are dumb anyway.




 Good luck with that. Sure it contravenes various laws in numerous countries.


----------



## ccs

Imaculata said:


> After a gender reveal party started a huge fire in California again this year, maybe gender reveal parties should simply be banned. They are dumb anyway.
> 
> 
> 
> That is simply criminal. Those parents should go to jail.




If there's any justice they've burned up their own house etc in the process & then their insurance company refused to pay.


----------



## Imaculata

ccs said:


> If there's any justice they've burned up their own house etc in the process & then their insurance company refused to pay.




We can only hope. Lighting a smokebomb during a severely dry season, in a dry grassy area, just to reveal if your kid is a boy or a girl, is so dumb. How did this become a thing? Those affected by the fire might be able to sue them for their reckless behavior, but how much money can they reasonably get from them?

And this isn't even the first time a gender reveal party goes horribly wrong and results in a lot of damage. Can people just stop doing this? Who cares if it is a boy or a girl?! That does not need a party.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ccs said:


> If there's any justice they've burned up their own house etc in the process & then their insurance company refused to pay.



People can and do get fines & jail time for carelessly or deliberately starting fires, especially in states prone to having wildfire issues.  I suspect if they know the ”who”, charges will follow.


----------



## ccs

Dannyalcatraz said:


> People can and do get fines & jail time for carelessly or deliberately starting fires, especially in states prone to having wildfire issues.  I suspect if they know the ”who”, charges will follow.




And I hope for that for them as well.


----------



## Ryujin

The "gender reveal fire" resulted in the death of at least one person; a senior US Forest Service fire fighter. Fines and charges are in order.


----------



## Eltab

Imaculata said:


> After a gender reveal party started a huge fire in California again this year, maybe gender reveal parties should simply be banned. They are dumb anyway.



No, that's over-doing it.  Baby showers and such have existed since forever.   People get excited when a baby is on the way; no problem with that.
The dumb part is "go outside and create a spectacle for the world to see".  A personalized jack-in-the-box would make the point for the party attendees to find out, just fine.


----------



## Ryujin

Eltab said:


> No, that's over-doing it.  Baby showers and such have existed since forever.   People get excited when a baby is on the way; no problem with that.
> The dumb part is "go outside and create a spectacle for the world to see".  A personalized jack-in-the-box would make the point for the party attendees to find out, just fine.




Not to mention using an incendiary device during a burn ban.


----------



## Imaculata

Eltab said:


> No, that's over-doing it.  Baby showers and such have existed since forever.




Exactly, so why do we need yet another party just to announce the baby's sex?  We already celebrate when people are expecting a baby, and when a baby is born. Why do we need a third, especially if so many stupid (and deadly) things are being done for the occasion?


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> Exactly, so why do we need yet another party just to announce the baby's sex?




So, actual answer?  The original point was to have a party that had an element that would go over well on social media.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Imaculata said:


> After a gender reveal party started a huge fire in California again this year, maybe gender reveal parties should simply be banned. They are dumb anyway.



They are. The child who ended up having the first gender reveal party for them is transgender, further proving that the parties are stupid.


----------



## Cadence

Felt good enough to come in yesterday to make up for my missed class Tuesday (thought it was just change of weather allergies late Monday but more aches than usual), but took the COVID test Wednesday AM and hadn't heard back yet.  Results came back this AM, all good, and I'm back in to catch up on work.


----------



## Cadence

RE: ADA and masks

A little clarification might be coming in at least one case...








						Woman Tased, charged with trespassing for refusing to leave after mask incident at middle school football game
					

Logan police said one of the women, identified as Alecia Kitts, was asked to put on a mask by Officer Chris Smith, who is the school resource officer.




					www.wltx.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> Exactly, so why do we need yet another party just to announce the baby's sex?  We already celebrate when people are expecting a baby, and when a baby is born. Why do we need a third, especially if so many stupid (and deadly) things are being done for the occasion?




 People like them, personally I'm very bah humbug. 

 "Congratulations you achieved something pretty much every mammal can do". 

 I mean coming up to 8 billion humans.

 Followed by once it's older. 

 "Get back to me once you can talk". 

 Babies pretty much are self propelled poo factories that cry.

 Kids seem to like me though as I'll keep them entertained either via old toys I kept or old school activities such as "the great outdoors". Nieces and nephews love it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Posted in r/Australia and reposted in r/NewZealand. 






 Outside of Victoria/Melbourne they're almost as good as us

  ANZACS since 1915.

  I liked it anyway.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Meanwhile, in Florida...








						Florida governor signs order clearing restaurants and bars to fully open | CNN
					

The Florida governor emphasized the impact the move will have on restaurants and bars, which can now operate at 100 percent capacity. "There will not be limitations, from the state of Florida," DeSantis said.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Meanwhile, in Florida...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Florida governor signs order clearing restaurants and bars to fully open | CNN
> 
> 
> The Florida governor emphasized the impact the move will have on restaurants and bars, which can now operate at 100 percent capacity. "There will not be limitations, from the state of Florida," DeSantis said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com




 Ours got their clearance on Monday to run at 100%. Before that limited to 100.

 Local place tonight bar was essentially deserted. Had 2 people in it while the restaurant part was 75% or so full. 

 Often they're hanging off the rafters.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Ours got their clearance on Monday to run at 100%. Before that limited to 100.




The difference is that you have very little going on, and in Florida that announcement came a day after Florida set a record for daily deaths in the state.

As you repeatedly remind folks that you're basically safe and happy, the Americans are looking at 200K dead, and the Europeans are looking at rising case numbers.  You want to keep that in mind, as you are at risk of looking... inappropriately smug.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’d say appropriately smug.  He’s in one of the countries where leadership and general populace are working (largely) together.

We, OTOH, have a 3-Ringed Cat Circus overseen by a mix of Border Collies and drunken monkeys.


----------



## Imaculata

Meanwhile in the Netherlands, we've been unable to do enough testing for a long time, because the people in charge have close financial ties to local hospital labs, and didn't want to hire German robot labs (that are much better equiped for mass testing).

For your entertainment, check out this wonderful summary of this circus of incompetence, by Dutch comedy show Zondag met Lubach (with subtitles).


(In short: The Dutch Outbreak Management Team (OMT) and our minister of health have severely let us down, and their incompetence has resulted in the loss of thousands of lives.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> The difference is that you have very little going on, and in Florida that announcement came a day after Florida set a record for daily deaths in the state.
> 
> As you repeatedly remind folks that you're basically safe and happy, the Americans are looking at 200K dead, and the Europeans are looking at rising case numbers.  You want to keep that in mind, as you are at risk of looking... inappropriately smug.




 It's why I don't put daily updates only when something new happens.


----------



## Retreater

Just curious if any mainland, continental country is really "out of it" yet? (Comparing isolated nations doesn't seem fair.) It seems like nations that handled it well at the beginning are all slipping back into the dangerous territory. My state here in the US was commended for doing excellent at the start, we eased the restrictions eventually, and we're breaking records for deaths and infections nearly every day now. And I don't know if it's because of bad leadership, people not wanting to follow the mandates, or just that this virus is going to spread to everyone eventually anyway.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> Meanwhile in the Netherlands, we've been unable to do enough testing for a long time, because the people in charge have close financial ties to local hospital labs, and didn't want to hire German robot labs (that are much better equiped for mass testing).
> 
> For your entertainment, check out this wonderful summary of this circus of incompetence, by Dutch comedy show Zondag met Lubach (with subtitles).
> 
> 
> (In short: The Dutch Outbreak Management Team (OMT) and our minister of health have severely let us down, and their incompetence has resulted in the loss of thousands of lives.)



That’s some serious Conan O’Brien hair!

Nice clip, too- sad AND funny.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Retreater said:


> Just curious if any mainland, continental country is really "out of it" yet? (Comparing isolated nations doesn't seem fair.) It seems like nations that handled it well at the beginning are all slipping back into the dangerous territory. My state here in the US was commended for doing excellent at the start, we eased the restrictions eventually, and we're breaking records for deaths and infections nearly every day now. And I don't know if it's because of bad leadership, people not wanting to follow the mandates, or just that this virus is going to spread to everyone eventually anyway.



AFAIK, no.  All the countries that share borders with others have some kind of ongoing issues.  But you can see marked differences between them based on policy & population compliance, like Sweden vs its neighbors.

Truth is, though, unless & until scientists give us some solid treatments and/or an actual vaccine, public health measures- masks, hand washing, distancing and (if needed) quarantines & lockdowns- are the only real weapons we have in this fight.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> AFAIK, no.  All the countries that share borders with others have some kind of ongoing issues.  But you can see marked differences between them based on policy & population compliance, like Sweden vs its neighbors.
> 
> Truth is, though, unless & until scientists give us some solid treatments and/or an actual vaccine, public health measures- masks, hand washing, distancing and (if needed) quarantines & lockdowns- are the only real weapons we have in this fight.




 Last I looked Vietnam, Cambodia, Mongolia were doing well.

 Latin America hot mess, USA not the worst per capita.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Last I looked Vietnam, Cambodia, Mongolia were doing well.
> 
> Latin America hot mess, USA not the worst per capita.



“Well“, yes.  But they’re not quite as good as places like your home.  And because they’re not islands, they’re going to have more issues controlling the entry of infected travelers.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> “Well“, yes.  But they’re not quite as good as places like your home.  And because they’re not islands, they’re going to have more issues controlling the entry of infected travelers.




 They never really closed the international airports. 

 USA could have restricted entry and send troops and drones to the border. 

 Almost 800 billion a year on military may as well use it.


----------



## Cadence

UofSC continues down, from the high of 1400 earlier in the semester...
Some is probably due to those with mild symptoms avoiding testing, but the positive percent seems good.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’d say appropriately smug.




There's an appropriate level of smug in the face of 200,000 dead?  Would Miss Manners agree with that?


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> “Well“, yes.  But they’re not quite as good as places like your home.  And because they’re not islands, they’re going to have more issues controlling the entry of infected travelers.




I think some might be better. IDK how good the testing is but yeah very few deaths.

Haven't looked for a few weeks though.

Vietnam.









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,898,689 Cases and 2,713,580 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				




Fewer cases than NZ, slightly more deaths vastly bigger population.

97 million people 0.4 deaths per million (NZ is 5).

1 million tests done.

Cambodia 15 million people 0 deaths from the look of it.

Vietnam also kept a British expat on life support linger than they would in the UK, he would have died back home.

 Seems to fit the criteria of large mainland population and very few cases/deaths.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> There's an appropriate level of smug in the face of 200,000 dead?  Would Miss Manners agree with that?



To be fair, Miss Manners would probably frown on ANY level of smug.  Best to keep that private.

OTOH, she’s human, soooooo...

And, TBF, our body count is largely due to purely avoidable reasons, so those who are doing it right have some justification in looking down their noses at us.  Especially considering the smugness _we_ usually project on the world stage.

As was once written:


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> To be fair, Miss Manners would probably frown on ANY level of smug.  Best to keep that private.
> 
> OTOH, she’s human, soooooo...
> 
> And, TBF, our body count is largely due to purely avoidable reasons, so those who are doing it right have some justification in looking down their noses at us.  Especially considering the smugness _we_ usually project on the world stage.
> 
> As was once written:




I posted an Australian cartoon. There was a context others might not get. How countries tend to see themselves.

USA American exceptionalism (we're great)
Australia. Aussie battler (fight/don't give up)
NZ number 8 fencing wire. (Fix it yourself)

The cartoon had an Aussie batter playing cricket. Batter/battler.

I thought it would be suitably mild to post.

I can't really post some of the other stuff being printed in newspapers and online. Aussies post in NZ reddit and vice versa.

 Aussies are blunt.


----------



## Hussar

Retreater said:


> Just curious if any mainland, continental country is really "out of it" yet? (Comparing isolated nations doesn't seem fair.) It seems like nations that handled it well at the beginning are all slipping back into the dangerous territory. My state here in the US was commended for doing excellent at the start, we eased the restrictions eventually, and we're breaking records for deaths and infections nearly every day now. And I don't know if it's because of bad leadership, people not wanting to follow the mandates, or just that this virus is going to spread to everyone eventually anyway.




In addition Korea is doing well.  China apparently is doing well but, frankly, I can't really trust anything they are saying.

But, yeah, East and Southeast Asia have seemed to manage the crisis fairly well, and, a considerably lot better than Europe and North America.


----------



## Zardnaar

If you had the money being stuck in Palau/Samoa/Vanuatu/Micronesia etc wouldn't be to bad. Cheap living costs just get drunk on a tropical island for the rest of 2020 kava optional. If you have seen the TV show Survivor the Covid free nation's are basically location shoots.

Kava is an aquired taste, not a fan personally.

  Vietnam in the right spot wouldn't be to bad.


----------



## ccs

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Meanwhile, in Florida...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Florida governor signs order clearing restaurants and bars to fully open | CNN
> 
> 
> The Florida governor emphasized the impact the move will have on restaurants and bars, which can now operate at 100 percent capacity. "There will not be limitations, from the state of Florida," DeSantis said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com




Oh Florida  Man....


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ccs said:


> Oh Florida  Man....



"Florida Man Elected as Governor" probably isn't on the website.


----------



## Imaculata

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Meanwhile, in Florida...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Florida governor signs order clearing restaurants and bars to fully open | CNN
> 
> 
> The Florida governor emphasized the impact the move will have on restaurants and bars, which can now operate at 100 percent capacity. "There will not be limitations, from the state of Florida," DeSantis said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com




It is probably fair to say that no one had high hopes for Florida. They are after all the capital of crazy.

But how do nearby states deal with this? Can a US state close their borders to another state?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> It is probably fair to say that no one had high hopes for Florida. They are after all the capital of crazy.
> 
> But how do nearby states deal with this? Can a US state close their borders to another state?



Yep.  It’s happened during this pandemic.


----------



## ssvegeta555

Zardnaar said:


> I think some might be better. IDK how good the testing is but yeah very few deaths.
> 
> Haven't looked for a few weeks though.
> 
> Vietnam.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,898,689 Cases and 2,713,580 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Fewer cases than NZ, slightly more deaths vastly bigger population.
> 
> 97 million people 0.4 deaths per million (NZ is 5).
> 
> 1 million tests done.
> 
> Cambodia 15 million people 0 deaths from the look of it.
> 
> Vietnam also kept a British expat on life support linger than they would in the UK, he would have died back home.
> 
> Seems to fit the criteria of large mainland population and very few cases/deaths.



I know Vietnam tests a lot and are very quick to act. Granted, sometimes they go too overboard like quarantine an entire city block or hospitals with any cases or relation to a case. No one in, no one out for 14 days.

Regardless, testing and tracing is very good from what my fiancee has said (she lives in Ho Chi Minh City). When she flew up to Ha Noi for a business trip last month she got tested once at each airport and filled out forms for contact tracing info. Filled out a form at the hotel too.

Vietnam has recently opened up their international airports for foreign visitors but only from select countries that has handled the pandemic well like South Korea, Singapore, and Japan. But it could be for only Vietnamese citizens (or foreigners married to one) heading back home. I'm not quite sure. However when they exit the plane they have to wear full body protective suits, get tested and then head to quarantine. They get tested again after a few days and if both tests were negative after 5 days or so of quarantine they're free to enter. Seems a bit surreal to be honest.

Before their second wave in late July, they had less than a 100 cases all told and no deaths. Not sure on the exact numbers now, 1,000 I think, but they had a few deaths. The first death was big news over there. So far I believe they've been case free for a while.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And, TBF, our body count is largely due to purely avoidable reasons, so those who are doing it right have some justification in looking down their noses at us.....




I would like to note the irony here.

Someone, trying to prevent a bit of harm, says, "Hey, maybe you should alter your behavior a bit."  Sure, it is a minor inconvenience, but might avoid bad results for some.

And, rather than, "Okay, that's fair."  We get rationalization and deflection?  

Bit of the world writ small, and an interesting meta-text.


----------



## Eltab

Retreater said:


> Just curious if any mainland, continental country is really "out of it" yet? (Comparing isolated nations doesn't seem fair.) It seems like nations that handled it well at the beginning are all slipping back into the dangerous territory. My state here in the US was commended for doing excellent at the start, we eased the restrictions eventually, and we're breaking records for deaths and infections nearly every day now. And I don't know if it's because of bad leadership, people not wanting to follow the mandates, or just that this virus is going to spread to everyone eventually anyway.



If COVID can hang out in animals or on plants, we are kidding ourselves by pulling the FIRE alarm over every case.  Modifying Merlin in Excalibur:  "The virus is everywhere.  The virus is on everything. "  The question is more _What can we do to make normal immune systems tough enough to stomp down the virus before it reaches contagious stage?_


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> If COVID can hang out in animals or on plants, we are kidding ourselves by pulling the FIRE alarm over every case.




My wife's a veterinarian, and keeps up with such things - at this time, as compared to passing human-to-human, animals are a negligible source of covid-19 infections.  If you work with animals that are kept in close proximity with people (like, you're a veterinarian), then there's precautions to be taken.  But you should worry more about whether Fido's owner is wearing a mask than about Fido.

Covid-19 hanging around on plants in your environment is similarly not an issue to worry about.  Food items that have been handled by humans still ought to be washed, but you aren't going to catch it from the oak tree in your yard, or someone's lawn.


----------



## Istbor

Imaculata said:


> After a gender reveal party started a huge fire in California again this year, maybe gender reveal parties should simply be banned. They are dumb anyway.
> 
> 
> 
> That is simply criminal. Those parents should go to jail.




They are dumb. And this was for my future nephew. Understood as another venue to get some more gifts or money from people you know. Luckily, most of the people didn't come. And some that were invited didn't come because they actually tested positive.

Luckily one of those being my cousin, has only experienced lost of taste, as the worst symptom.

A cousin that is part of my normal in person group. So putting some validity on why we haven't held a session since the outbreak.


----------



## Istbor

Cadence said:


> RE: ADA and masks
> 
> A little clarification might be coming in at least one case...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Woman Tased, charged with trespassing for refusing to leave after mask incident at middle school football game
> 
> 
> Logan police said one of the women, identified as Alecia Kitts, was asked to put on a mask by Officer Chris Smith, who is the school resource officer.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wltx.com




Personally, if I had asthma, going to a football game during a pandemic without my own protection is probably the last thing I am going to be doing. That being besides the numerous ways it was stated that masks were required.

I mean... she was told to leave. I guess she thought she was calling the officer's bluff? That worked out well for her.


----------



## Eltab

Imaculata said:


> Can a US state close their borders to another state?



Early on when NYC became a raging hotspot, Rhode Island tried to shut off the flow of NYC'ers going "on vacation" (actually fleeing the epidemic).  Since the first go at a Corona test kit had fizzled, nobody knew who had it or who did not.  RI roadblocked the Connecticut border - look at a map to see why - and turned back all cars with NY license plates.  That lasted about a day because _the CT authorities_ complained; traffic jams and they didn't want maybe-contagious-carriers either.  Under pressure from both States' governors, the RI Governor gave in.

That is what really trying to "stop the spread" would look like.  And how people reacted to it.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> That is what really trying to "stop the spread" would look like.  And how people reacted to it.




There are other ways.

Massachusetts has a list.  If your state is on the list*, you can travel to MA freely.  If you are not, you have to file papers, and either quarantine or get a negative test.  If you do not comply, you get a fine of $500 per day you are not in compliance. 

Now, it doesn't stop you at the border, but the financial risk of sticking around when you shouldn't is severe.  They probably don't catch you immediately - which means that fine may be several thousand dollars when all is said and done.  It has apparently been a good policy for preventing certain forms of travel that we really don't want to deal with at the moment.

*there are currently only 9 states on the list.


----------



## Zardnaar

Some Germans decided to enter the country via boat. 

 Currently guests of her majesty and getting sent back to Germany. 









						German yachties jailed until flight on Thursday
					

Jacob Kraus, Sophia Ulbrich and Hans Borner were in custody in Auckland after they arrived in Opua from Tahiti in breach of border restrictions last Friday.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Hussar

Heh.  To be fair, they DID isolate before entering the country.


----------



## Deset Gled

Istbor said:


> Personally, if I had asthma, going to a football game during a pandemic without my own protection is probably the last thing I am going to be doing. That being besides the numerous ways it was stated that masks were required.
> 
> I mean... she was told to leave. I guess she thought she was calling the officer's bluff? That worked out well for her.




This is another one that I learned about and am keeping on eye on:









						Walmart Customer Accuses Chain of Discrimination Over Designated COVID-19 Shopping Hours
					

She has asked a judge for class certification for the suit.




					footwearnews.com
				




At first glance, seems like someone seeking out a paycheck.  The details do look interesting, though (assuming you believe some key things from the  plaintiff's side).


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Heh.  To be fair, they DID isolate before entering the country.




 There's several hundred yachets wanting to sail here to dodge storm season in the pacific. 

 French polynesia wasn't doing to good with Covid. 

 Let one in and yeah.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> At first glance, seems like someone seeking out a paycheck.  The details do look interesting, though (assuming you believe some key things from the  plaintiff's side).




I'm guessing the facts of the matter are probably fairly clear-cut.  They probably are immune suppressed, and they probably weren't allowed into the store.

The questions are in what that _means_ in terms of interpretting whether the practice is discriminatory.  I'm going to guess that it won't be found to be discrimination. Both Walmart and the state have a clear interest in keeping more people safe.  Just taking people's word for it defeats the purpose of the policy, but having highly qualified personnel do it would be too high a practical burden.  Sorry, but in the overall health crisis, quick and dirty may be acceptable.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I'm guessing the facts of the matter are probably fairly clear-cut.  They probably are immune suppressed, and they probably weren't allowed into the store.
> 
> The questions are in what that _means_ in terms of interpretting whether the practice is discriminatory.  I'm going to guess that it won't be found to be discrimination. Both Walmart and the state have a clear interest in keeping more people safe.  Just taking people's word for it defeats the purpose of the policy, but having highly qualified personnel do it would be too high a practical burden.  Sorry, but in the overall health crisis, quick and dirty may be acceptable.



The plaintiff claims to have diabetes and some form of cancer, so probably IS immunocompromised.

In all likelihood, the security guards have been advised that such people are to be considered admissible during C19 shopping hours- both afflictions are explicitly mentioned in all the similar policies I’ve seen here in Texas.

If those diseases were part of the policy- and the guards *weren’t* briefed- that’s an administrative failure and the retailer will probably lose.

If those diseases weren’t part of the policy, that’s something that could go either way, depending on how the court views the store’s standard vs state and federal guidelines.

If those diseases were part of the policy and the guards were briefed, but the plaintiff provided no form of proof if asked, that’s probably a loss for the plaintiff. The guards would qualify under the law as personnel with a “need to know” a person’s health info in order to implement the policy.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> There's several hundred yachets wanting to sail here to dodge storm season in the pacific.
> 
> French polynesia wasn't doing to good with Covid.
> 
> Let one in and yeah.




Was only half serious.  How long does it take to sail from French Polynesia to NZ?  I mean, if it's more than 2 weeks, then they've already done their isolation before they arrived.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Was only half serious.  How long does it take to sail from French Polynesia to NZ?  I mean, if it's more than 2 weeks, then they've already done their isolation before they arrived.




 No idea. 

 They did ask, got told no came anyway. 

 The main thing is there's several hundred of them (300 iirc) and the dint want to deal with all of them I suppose. They've been wanting to come here for weeks to basically dodge storm season. It's not like they're stuck at sea just various islands. The qurantine facilities were near capacity. 

 Americans with kiwi partners can now get in. They relaxed the rules a few weeks ago. 









						Escape to NZ: Managed isolation 'a welcome plush purgatory'
					

OPINION: Leif Wauters leaves the US far behind and embraces 14 days in "confined comfort" on arrival back into NZ.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Played D&D tonight now it's back to level 1. First time since August 5th. Shop had 25 turn up, 5 groups of five. 

 Ordered Rime of Frostmaiden.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> If those diseases were part of the policy and the guards were briefed, but the plaintiff provided no form of proof if asked, that’s probably a loss for the plaintiff. The guards would qualify under the law as personnel with a “need to know” a person’s health info in order to implement the policy.




And that's where I expect it will be.  Who carries around a "proof I have cancer" card?


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> If those diseases weren’t part of the policy, that’s something that could go either way, depending on how the court views the store’s standard vs state and federal guidelines.




I'd also throw "How they treated other people" into the mix of questions.  If they let a bunch of people in without questioning them, or accepted the explanations of others without requiring proof, but singled this person out without a good reason, it could be a problem for the store.  Of course, an arguement about what a good reason would be for singling her out would then follow.

Trying to make it a class action suit does smell odd to me, though.  Without more info it's hard to tell if that's a legit thing, or just trying to raise the stakes of the lawsuit (possibly hunting for a better lawyer or for a better settlement).


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> Trying to make it a class action suit does smell odd to me, though.  Without more info it's hard to tell if that's a legit thing, or just trying to raise the stakes of the lawsuit (possibly hunting for a better lawyer or for a better settlement).




Yeah.  There's a legal difference between "I have an issue, and they did not properly follow their policy" and "their policy is discriminatory in general".


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> And that's where I expect it will be.  Who carries around a "proof I have cancer" card?



There are ways.

Depends on what treatment (if any) they’re on, but they’re probably going to have some kind of meds for appetite enhancement or the like.  Some carry a miniature pharmacy.

Maybe an appointment card with an oncologist.  Or have them CALL your oncologist.

Chemo can cause hair loss, and a lot of people suffering that will wear head coverings...which doesn’t conceal the missing brows or lashes that may also occur.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> I'd also throw "How they treated other people" into the mix of questions.  If they let a bunch of people in without questioning them, or accepted the explanations of others without requiring proof, but singled this person out without a good reason, it could be a problem for the store.  Of course, an arguement about what a good reason would be for singling her out would then follow.
> 
> Trying to make it a class action suit does smell odd to me, though.  Without more info it's hard to tell if that's a legit thing, or just trying to raise the stakes of the lawsuit (possibly hunting for a better lawyer or for a better settlement).



The Devil is ALWAYS in the details.

If the _plaintiff_ acted in such a way or said something that seemed suspect to the security guards, that might have led to the “singling out”.

Coincidence could play a factor: “Doesn’t X over there look like that anti-masker who was on the local news last night?”

Hell...what if the plaintiff IS an anti-mask activist who ALSO happens to have cancer & “the sugars”?


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There are ways.




Yes.  But, I am guessing that none of them were used _in this case_ - plaintiff probably just told them, and gave no supporting evidence, and was refused.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Yes.  But, I am guessing that none of them were used _in this case_ - plaintiff probably just told them, and gave no supporting evidence, and was refused.



Agreed...which makes me suspicious.

Most cancer patients I know- and I unfortunately have known quite a few- have the office number of their oncologist or at least their primary MD stored on their phone or on their pill vial.  A quick call would solve the issue.

But if you are unwilling or unable to expend that minimal effort to prove your eligibility?  Well, we’re back to “reasonable accommodations“, which, as noted, isn’t neccisarily the accommodation you want.


----------



## Zardnaar

Last night's efforts, gamestore owner took a picture.






Covid alert levels got dropped.

He's organising events every night alternating between games and charging for the tables but it's store credit.

DMs get a bit more so picked up Theros and a PHB almost free. Extra two tables from pre lockdown. 

12 cases today all in qurantine at the border. 10 were from India. Looks like community spread is eliminated again 2.0.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Most cancer patients I know- and I unfortunately have known quite a few- have the office number of their oncologist or at least their primary MD stored on their phone or on their pill vial.  A quick call would solve the issue.




Found the filing info and a couple of documents: Docket for MCKNIGHT-NERO v. WALMART, INC., 1:20-cv-01541 - CourtListener.com

If we believe the plaintiff: "The security guard stated that he understood, but that the Walmart instructed him to allow only “seniors” to enter the store".  The plaintiff (and police officers, at one point) also asked to speak to a manager but were denied.  If we only listen to the plaintiff's side of things, sounds like something Walmart might want to settle. 

OTOH, there's wiggle room in the story for Walmart's side to have some different details.  Looks like Walmart filed boilerplate motions to dismiss, extend, etc.  As a non-lawyer, the motion (and timing) to make it a class action change looks to me like an effort by the plaintiff to say "settle with me now, or I'll cost you lots of legal fees".


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Well, you can’t just file a lawsuit as a class action.  The class has to be approved by a court.  The bar isn‘t trivial, but neither is it set super high.  The court has to believe that there’s some evidence of a pattern of behavior or circumstances that make a class action is the best route for the legal system to take.

And the line about the police dismissing the necessity of proving her disability via her handicap plates is interesting as well.  If true, it gives some we to her claim- it’s a demonstration that she was willing to try to provide some kind of proof that she met the entry standards.  Add that to the manager’s non-appearance when the police asked to talk to him/her... 

Not looking too good, Wallyworld.

OTOH, everything is being held up pending Wal-Mart’s Motion to Dismiss, which had enough ooomph behind it that it wasn’t immediately ruled on.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well well well El Presidente huh?


----------



## Imaculata

It was long overdue. But don't expect this to change his tune about Corona. The POTUS probably receives the best medical care in the world, but wouldn't it be a plottwist if he simply died from it right before the election?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I don’t know if it will affect HIS position- I doubt it will- but I have to wonder about those who still think this is a hoax.  I mean, will they finally grok that the pandemic is REAL, or will they simply shift conspiracy theories?  

Will the First Couple’s illness be evidence to them that C19 is real...but created in a lab as a weapon that has now been successfully deployed in the White House?


----------



## briggart

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I don’t know if it will affect HIS position- I doubt it will- but I have to wonder about those who still think this is a hoax.  I mean, will they finally grok that the pandemic is REAL, or will they simply shift conspiracy theories?
> 
> Will the First Couple’s illness be evidence to them that C19 is real...but created in a lab as a weapon that has now been successfully deployed in the White House?



They clearly sold out to Big Pharma!11!!!!


----------



## ccs

Oh, darn.  Look an idiot just caught CVd19.  
Hope it doesn't kill 'em.


----------



## ccs

Imaculata said:


> It was long overdue. But don't expect this to change his tune about Corona. The POTUS probably receives the best medical care in the world, but wouldn't it be a plottwist if he simply died from it right before the election?




Yeah, that'd throw a wrench in things.
What does happen if the incumbent candidate dies just before the vote?  I don't think they ever covered this when I was in school.


----------



## Eltab

ccs said:


> Yeah, that'd throw a wrench in things.
> What does happen if the incumbent candidate dies just before the vote?  I don't think they ever covered this when I was in school.



The Vice-President becomes President upon the sitting President's death.
He also in effect becomes his Party's Presidential candidate for the election.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I don’t know if it will affect HIS position- I doubt it will- but I have to wonder about those who still think this is a hoax.  I mean, will they finally grok that the pandemic is REAL, or will they simply shift conspiracy theories?
> 
> Will the First Couple’s illness be evidence to them that C19 is real...but created in a lab as a weapon that has now been successfully deployed in the White House?



Conversely, 
If President Trump takes hydrochloroquine and kicks his case of COVID in a few days, will the lockdown advocates realize there are better ways to beat an epidemic than persecuting the healthy while letting the infected roam free?


----------



## ccs

Eltab said:


> The Vice-President becomes President upon the sitting President's death.
> He also in effect becomes his Party's Presidential candidate for the election.




I'm sure there's more involved in the second part.


----------



## ccs

Eltab said:


> Conversely,
> If President Trump takes hydrochloroquine and kicks his case of COVID in a few days, will the lockdown advocates realize there are better ways to beat an epidemic than persecuting the healthy while letting the infected roam free?




You mean like locking the infected up for the good of the rest of us?


----------



## CapnZapp

Eltab said:


> Conversely,
> If President Trump takes hydrochloroquine and kicks his case of COVID in a few days, will the lockdown advocates realize there are better ways to beat an epidemic than persecuting the healthy while letting the infected roam free?



If Trump easily kicks the disease that would be a disaster for logic- and evidence based responses.


----------



## Ryujin

CapnZapp said:


> If Trump easily kicks the disease that would be a disaster for logic- and evidence based responses.




And given that most people either have no, or minor symptoms, that is very likely. He also gets almost daily medical care (unlike the vast majority of Americans) so, despite being in at least two at-risk groups, he'll quite likely have few issues.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> If President Trump takes hydrochloroquine ...




It is unlikely that he will take hydroxychloroquine.  Lack of evidence that it is effective aside, the FDA has cautioned against its use for covid-19, due to its  increased risk of heart arrhythmia, blood disorders, and liver and kidney damage.  Giving such a drug to an overweight 74 year old world leader who may have had a cardiac or stroke event in the past few years would be highly irresponsible medicine, and likely be a career ender if anything goes wrong.



> will the lockdown advocates realize there are better ways to beat an epidemic than persecuting the healthy while letting the infected roam free?




In a word?  No.  

In more words: No, because one man having a mild case when we already know most cases are mild proves nothing.  His additional mild case doesn't change the picture at all for anyone listening to statistics and epidemiology.  His one case is statistically insignificant.


----------



## Cadence

Lawyers and Law Enforcement in my home town :-/









						Pritzker: State Police will be in Rockford region to enforce COVID-19 rules
					

Governor’s statement comes in response to packed meeting, sheriff’s declaration that businesses should have "no fear" of coronavirus




					www.rrstar.com


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> ...will the lockdown advocates realize there are better ways to beat an epidemic than persecuting the healthy while letting the infected roam free?




I think this needs to be revisited.

The people we know are infected don't go free.  They self-quarantine.  There have been 7.3 million known infected people in the US, and we don't have appropriate facilities to forcibly quarantine them, nor infrastructure to properly care for them in a centralized manner.  And if you thought people can raise a stink about asking them to wear masks, imagine what what would happen if you started stuffing them in poorly managed covid-camps.

Meanwhile, dealing with the people we already know are infected is a _reactive_ strategy.  The person has already caught the disease, and already had a chance to spread it, before you know they are infected.  Lockdowns are a _proactive_ strategy, dealing with the possible spread before it happens, rather than after.


----------



## CapnZapp

Umbran said:


> In more words: No, because one man having a mild case when we already know most cases are mild proves nothing. His additional mild case doesn't change the picture at all for anyone listening to statistics and epidemiology. His one case is statistically insignificant.



I believe Trump will take every opportunity to brag about defeating the disease and use himself as an argument to further downplay the very real pandemic.

Your arguments are of course sound and logical, but that won't stop him.

The possibility of a fully recovered Trump that insinuates only Liberals die from this conspiracy makes me shake my head...


----------



## Retreater

CapnZapp said:


> I believe Trump will take every opportunity to brag about defeating the disease and use himself as an argument to further downplay the very real pandemic.
> 
> Your arguments are of course sound and logical, but that won't stop him.
> 
> The possibility of a fully recovered Trump that insinuates only Liberals die from this conspiracy makes me shake my head...



He probably doesn't even actually have it. Just wants to brag about beating it and that it's "not a big deal."


----------



## Ryujin

Retreater said:


> He probably doesn't even actually have it. Just wants to brag about beating it and that it's "not a big deal."




Unfortunately this presents as a very real possibility, given the massive number of falsehoods that he has already spouted.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

CapnZapp said:


> I believe Trump will take every opportunity to brag about defeating the disease and use himself as an argument to further downplay the very real pandemic.
> 
> Your arguments are of course sound and logical, but that won't stop him.
> 
> The possibility of a fully recovered Trump that insinuates only Liberals die from this conspiracy makes me shake my head...



It depends on the nature of his recovery.  If he’s a “long hauler“ or has things go wrong like myocarditis, lung damage, etc., he won’t really have anything to crow about.


----------



## Eltab

ccs said:


> You mean like locking the infected up for the good of the rest of us?



That is what a quarantine is.


----------



## Eltab

CapnZapp said:


> If Trump easily kicks the disease that would be a disaster for logic- and evidence based responses.



This would be more evidence to add to the existing shelf-full. 
When improved techniques become available, shall we spurn them because "that's not the way we've been doing it"?


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> I think this needs to be revisited.
> 
> The people we know are infected don't go free.  They self-quarantine.



Umm, more or less.  

The people we don't know are infected is the problem the Authorities refuse to address in any meaningful manner.  Widespread testing?  Too hard or too expensive or can't get good enough tests or don't know where to start.  Containment lines around hotspots (around NYC instead of RI, see above)?  Horrors!
We just proved that universal lockdowns are not a meaningful response, due to collateral damage and because  - contrast to say pioneer days - no man is a self-suffient island, we have to interact with each other to get the needs of life.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ehhh, all we’ve proven is that, when people don‘t take the basic precautions, the advanced responses are less effective than they could be.


----------



## Mallus

If the US had the case- and death counts we did in the Spring, I could _almost_ see this news as a ploy, a legit October Surprise. But now? With over 200,000 dead and no end in sight, heading into flu season? “I beat it in week, it’s no big deal” won’t go over well with the voters the Trump campaign is aggressively targeting, ie suburban voters like the ones in Montgomery County here in PA.

Also, sending thoughts and prayers to the White House. “Arioch! Arioch! Blood and souls...”


----------



## Umbran

Retreater said:


> He probably doesn't even actually have it. Just wants to brag about beating it and that it's "not a big deal."




1) Hope Hicks, and at least two other cases have shown up in the White House  Plus the President of Notre Dame after attending a Rose Garden Ceremony with the president without masks, and the RNC Chair who was with the president last week have tested positive.  While that all could still be coincidental, it starts looking less so the more cases show up.

2) So, he's taking himself off the campaign trail a month from the election, and bringing focus on how badly we've been handling the pandemic under his leadership... so he can brag?


----------



## billd91

Retreater said:


> He probably doesn't even actually have it. Just wants to brag about beating it and that it's "not a big deal."




He probably has it - there are too many close calls for too long. He couldn't dodge a COVID-19 bullet forever. However, that still doesn't preclude him from drawing the wrong conclusions if he ends up with a mild case and recovers in short time. If that happens, he'll try to leverage it as much as he can no matter how many other people have died.

That said, his credibility *is* questionable, so I can't shut the door on it being bogus yet. But it might not just be a gambit for him to use for his electoral gain. It could also be spun into a means of saving face in the event of impending loss. Defeat would no longer be, "his fault" as he might see it. Rather, he got sick - circumstances defeated him, not Biden.

It is unfortunate his credibility is so bad since it breeds this degree of cynicism.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> It is unlikely that he will take hydroxychloroquine. Lack of evidence that it is effective aside, the FDA has cautioned against its use for covid-19, due to its increased risk of heart arrhythmia, blood disorders, and liver and kidney damage. Giving such a drug to an overweight 74 year old world leader who may have had a cardiac or stroke event in the past few years would be highly irresponsible medicine, and likely be a career ender if anything goes wrong.



He already was taking hydroxychloroquine earlier this year. If he still supports using it, which he hasn't made any remarks saying that he is against it, I don't see the possibility of him taking it being completely out the window for him.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> He already was taking hydroxychloroquine earlier this year. If he still supports using it, which he hasn't made any remarks saying that he is against it, I don't see the possibility of him taking it being completely out the window for him.




1) He _said_ he was taking it, but provided no proof.  If we question whether he actually has the disease, we should question if he ever took the drug at all.
2) Back on May 19th, when he said this, the FDA had an open emergency use authorization for the drug for people hospitalized with the disease. In June, the FDA has withdrew the authorization, and the WHO, Novartis, and NIH all stopped their trials.  

Giving what would now be considered both off-label and "experimental" treatment to the President of the United States in a health crisis is probably a career ender if something goes wrong.


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> 1) He _said_ he was taking it, but provided no proof.  If we question whether he actually has the disease, we should question if he ever took the drug at all.




It wasn't just Trump that said it - so did his physician Cmdr Sean Conley. That said, we are aware that he has had his doctors do and write things that may not have been strictly true. So, again, a credibility gap has us second-guessing whether he has been on it or not. If Trump still believes in the treatment, I'd bet his doctor would prescribe it, FDA approval or no.


----------



## Zardnaar

I doubt he would fake it. 

Down in the polls and trailing a month out from the election.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> If Trump still believes in the treatment...




I don't think we have evidence he ever really _believed_ in it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> I doubt he would fake it.
> 
> Down in the polls and trailing a month out from the election.



Faked or not, reporting he recovered could provide a boost in his polling, like it did for Boris Johnson.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Faked or not, reporting he recovered could provide a boost in his polling, like it did for Boris Johnson.




Boris has a different public persona. He deliberately cultivates the lovable buffoon thing while Trump's more erm Trump.

I don't think he's faking it but wouldn't surprise me put it that way.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Boris has a different public persona. He deliberately cultivates the lovable buffoon thing while Trump's more erm Trump.
> 
> I don't think he's faking it but wouldn't surprise me put it that way.



Sorry, my bad- I didn’t complete my thought.  I don’t think Trump’s polling would actually improve, but it might re-energize his base.  IOW, more of them would vote.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sorry, my bad- I didn’t complete my thought.  I don’t think Trump’s polling would actually improve, but it might re-energize his base.  IOW, more of them would vote.




 I think that's already there due to SCOTUS.


----------



## Umbran

Okay, folks, while his health may be relevant, how about we avoid discussing how many folks will vote for him, please and thanks.


----------



## CleverNickName

If the worst should happen, so close to the election, I think that there would be a lot of pressure to delay or reschedule the election.  I don't know if that is a thing that can happen or not (I'm not an expert on US politics), but I can definitely see a lot of people wanting to do so.

EDIT: woops, sorry Umbran.  I just now saw your post.


----------



## Umbran

CleverNickName said:


> If the worst should happen, so close to the election, I think that there would be a lot of pressure to delay or reschedule the election.




The election _has already started_.  People have already cast votes.  I don't see how delay or reschedule is feasible.


----------



## Mallus

Our PA mail in ballots arrived this week. We’re going to drop them off in person next week.


----------



## CleverNickName

@Umbran That's true...I hadn't thought of that.


----------



## Umbran

CleverNickName said:


> @Umbran That's true...I hadn't thought of that.




On top of that, while you could imagine both houses of Congress and the President all agreeing* to move the election date (which is set in federal law), the end date of the President's term is set _in the Constitution_ (the 20th Amendment).  It isn't a thing they can just choose to move on short notice.


*I admit, it requires quite an imagination.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Yeah, the election is definitely happening when it currently is scheduled for. 

Quite a bit of Trump's other staff members and others he's been meeting with recently have also tested positive recently. This is certainly going to impact things on a large scale in the country, especially now that he's been hospitalized.


----------



## Imaculata

Well, news update, Trump has been rushed to hospital. According to some reports, he is struggling to breath and suffering severe fatigue. Some of this reporting is contradicted by what his campaign team is saying, but why should we believe anything they say at this point?

Later on he tweeted that he was doing okay, after receiving an experimental drug. We'll see where this goes. It is no secret that the president's health wasn't great even before catching this disease, and he's also of elderly age. I've seen what this illness does to people around me. Even people who 'recover' from Covid, don't recover entirely. They may suffer from low energy for the rest of their lives, and especially the elderly suffer a lot. Some people I know can barely walk after 'recovering' from the disease. So it is quite possible that even if Trump recovers, he will suffer after effects like most people I've seen. Ironic, given how often he calls Biden low energy and sleepy.


----------



## CapnZapp

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It depends on the nature of his recovery. If he’s a “long hauler“ or has things go wrong like myocarditis, lung damage, etc., he won’t really have anything to crow about.



Yes, not to wish a fellow human harm, but just about the best commercial for taking the disease seriously among Trump followers must surely be to see your Commander in Chief get it rough.

This is NOT a veiled wish for him to die. Just a wish he doesn't luck out and gets to remain delusional about the pandemic.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

CapnZapp said:


> Yes, not to wish a fellow human harm, but just about the best commercial for taking the disease seriously among Trump followers must surely be to see your Commander in Chief get it rough.
> 
> This is NOT a veiled wish for him to die. Just a wish he doesn't luck out and gets to remain delusional about the pandemic.



Thing is, I don’t know that he’s actually delusional (in the colloquial sense) about C19.  Part of me think that the mental health care professionals who violated some of the guidelines of their professions over the past few years to claim Trump is a “malignant narcissist“ may be spot in.

IOW, he may know full well that C19 is dangerous.  But as long as he’s the POTUS and has his hands on all the levers of power, he doesn’t care about the big picture for little people- which is to say, pretty much anyone else except MAYBE his daughter.


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> Well, news update, Trump has been rushed to hospital. According to some reports, he is struggling to breath and suffering severe fatigue. Some of this reporting is contradicted by what his campaign team is saying, but why should we believe anything they say at this point?




The fact that we have video of him fairly comfortably walking off Marine One on arrival at the hospital?



> Later on he tweeted that he was doing okay, after receiving an experimental drug.




The experimental drug is a mixture of antibodies, by the way.


----------



## Imaculata

Umbran said:


> The fact that we have video of him fairly comfortably walking off Marine One on arrival at the hospital?




I'm less inclined at this point to believe anything positive regarding how Trump presents himself in public. He wants to look healthy while the cameras are pointed at him. I'm pretty sure he's been instructed as such by his team.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> I'm less inclined at this point to believe anything positive regarding how Trump presents himself in public. He wants to look healthy while the cameras are pointed at him. I'm pretty sure he's been instructed as such by his team.



I understand the sentiment, but if you’re _really_ sick with something affecting your cardio-pulmonary system, you’re not going to be walking normally. Thing is, as we know, C19 affects different people differently. The onset of symptoms can be gradual or as sudden as an avalanche.

So it’s possible Trump walked into the hospital normally, and a few hours later, be experiencing some alarming symptoms.


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> He wants to look healthy while the cameras are pointed at him. I'm pretty sure he's been instructed as such by his team.




Yeah, yeah, I understand that.  

The fact remains that _he was able to do so_.  Puts a bit of an upper bound on how bad off he is.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Yeah, yeah, I understand that.
> 
> The fact remains that _he was able to do so_.  Puts a bit of an upper bound on how bad off he is.



I agree with @Dannyalcatraz. He may have been fine going to the hospital, but this virus can quickly take a bad turn.


----------



## Mallus

Let's review what we know about the US President's health.

1. He has COVID-19.
2. On Friday he was taken to Walter Reed Medical Center.
3. He walked to and disembarked from Marine One under his own power. He was not in apparent physical distress.
4. He has, historically, gone to some lengths to portray his health as excellent.

Add all of these thing together and it's reasonable to believe a) there are serious concerns about the President experiencing a rapid decline, and more importantly b) the President acknowledges this, or perhaps even fears this, thus his willingness to leave the White House.

I imagine the conversation that convinced him to go went something like this: "Yes, Mr. President it looks bad if you go to the hospital. But you can walk to the chopper now. It will look a lot worse if you're wheeled out or carried out strapped to gurney tomorrow."

Also, here's an interesting article from the Atlantic about COVID spread, cluster patters, and the importance of backwards contract tracing: This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic.


----------



## Garthanos

Mallus said:


> 4. He has, historically, gone to some lengths to portray his health as excellent.



And to pretend a trip to the hospital during which they put Pence on standby was just a "check up" so he is not inclined to fake being ill and more like the opposite.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> He may have been fine going to the hospital, but this virus can quickly take a bad turn.




Yes.  That's probably why they took him there - not because he was bad a the time, but so that he'd be right there if/when it did go bad, instead of half an hour or more away from top-notch medical care.

However, I don't see any really solid sources saying that he was definitively on supportive oxygen, or the like.  Until I see a rusted news source reported, I'm taking such claims with a grain of salt.

There is the added point that, really, knowing or not doesn't matter.  He's now in a black box.  He'll come out, or not.  He'll be reasonably okay, or not.  Until that resolves, it doesn't really impact us, nor can we impact it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well he might get what he want and be president for life.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> There is the added point that, really, knowing or not doesn't matter.  He's now in a black box.  He'll come out, or not.  He'll be reasonably okay, or not.  Until that resolves, it doesn't really impact us, nor can we impact it.



Schrodinger’s President.


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Schrodinger’s President.




Trouble is, we’ve been gaslit so many times by his administration that this is the normal state of things.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Schrodinger’s President.



I know that's meant as a jest, but that's actually pretty accurate to the situation. I don't think the chances of him dying are 50/50, but it's a high enough percent that I wouldn't be surprised with any outcome. We'll just have to check Twitter every hour or so to collapse the superposition.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Will the First Couple’s illness be evidence to them that C19 is real...but created in a lab as a weapon that has now been successfully deployed in the White House?




Damn it!









						DeAnna Lorraine says Trump catching Covid could be considered an assassination attempt by China
					

The London Economic - Seth Rogan said she has "accomplished the tough task of being the dumbest montherf*cker out here". - Politics




					www.thelondoneconomic.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Damn it!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DeAnna Lorraine says Trump catching Covid could be considered an assassination attempt by China
> 
> 
> The London Economic - Seth Rogan said she has "accomplished the tough task of being the dumbest montherf*cker out here". - Politics
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thelondoneconomic.com


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Damn it!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DeAnna Lorraine says Trump catching Covid could be considered an assassination attempt by China
> 
> 
> The London Economic - Seth Rogan said she has "accomplished the tough task of being the dumbest montherf*cker out here". - Politics
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thelondoneconomic.com



Recklessness or negligence more than attempted murder ... but times the tens of millions of cases (and counting) worldwide.  There are plenty of people with reason to think dark thoughts at the Chinese leadership.


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Well he might get what he want and be president for life.




A classic example of "Be carefull what you wish for"?


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> A classic example of "Be carefull what you wish for"?




 Yep. I think he'll be right. Mostly because of my inherent cynicism.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Recklessness or negligence more than attempted murder ... but times the tens of millions of cases (and counting) worldwide.  There are plenty of people with reason to think dark thoughts at the Chinese leadership.




That is some of the most egregious thinking I can imagine. 

I mean, the argument is that China didn't control it, so they are at fault.  But, every other nation on Earth had warning... but it is like only New Zealand has gotten a handle on it?  China's at fault for failing to do what... basically nobody was able to do. 

That's like sentencing someone to jail for failing to be able to single-handedly lift a car off an accident victim.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> That is some of the most egregious thinking I can imagine.
> 
> I mean, the argument is that China didn't control it, so they are at fault.  But, every other nation on Earth had warning... but it is like only New Zealand has gotten a handle on it?  China's at fault for failing to do what... basically nobody was able to do.
> 
> That's like sentencing someone to jail for failing to be able to single-handedly lift a car off an accident victim.



Go back and look at the articles describing how the virus got out of the city of Wuhan and where it popped up next.  (Hint: international airport hub cities)
The contrast between this world-wide pandemic and the West African outbreak of Ebola - another very spreadable disease - is striking.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Eltab said:


> Go back and look at the articles describing how the virus got out of the city of Wuhan and where it popped up next. (Hint: international airport hub cities)



Any extremely contagious virus in the first bit of the pandemic will have more cases in the international airport hub cities than anywhere else. That's kind of how contagious diseases work, they go where the people go. 


Eltab said:


> The contrast between this world-wide pandemic and the West African outbreak of Ebola - another very spreadable disease - is striking.



Ebola was very contagious, but wasn't airborne or nearly as contagious as Covid-19, was less/not contagious in the asymptomatic stage of having contracted it, and the Ebola-outbreak was easier to control than the current pandemic-causing virus.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’ll just remind everyone of this:



Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sneaky bastard!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus Reportedly Detected in Wastewater Samples From March 2019
> 
> 
> An unpublished study by Spanish virologists suggests the novel coronavirus has been around much longer than we thought, dating as far back as March 2019.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




To paraphrase, subsequent studies have revealed Covid-19 was circulating in Europe 9 months before the Wuhan outbreak occurred.  We don’t know why it wasn’t causing problems like it has since then, but unless there was a significant mutation unique to the Wuhan outbreak that made it more dangerous, C19 was already circulating in humans. IOW, the pandemic itself was probably inevitable regardless of how China reacted. 

(Maybe not as BAD a pandemic, but still unavoidable.)

Here’s the Reuters article referenced in the Yahoo report.








						Coronavirus traces found in March 2019 sewage sample, Spanish study shows
					

Spanish virologists have found traces of the novel coronavirus in a sample of Barcelona waste water collected in March 2019, nine months before the COVID-19 disease was identified in China, the University of Barcelona said on Friday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Hussar

Eltab said:


> Umm, more or less.
> 
> The people we don't know are infected is the problem the Authorities refuse to address in any meaningful manner.  Widespread testing?  Too hard or too expensive or can't get good enough tests or don't know where to start.  Containment lines around hotspots (around NYC instead of RI, see above)?  Horrors!
> We just proved that universal lockdowns are not a meaningful response, due to collateral damage and because  - contrast to say pioneer days - no man is a self-suffient island, we have to interact with each other to get the needs of life.




That's a very American view.

You need to start looking at the countries that are SUCCESSFUL, not utter failures, and emulate what they are doing.


----------



## briggart

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’ll just remind everyone of this:
> 
> 
> 
> To paraphrase, subsequent studies have revealed Covid-19 was circulating in Europe 9 months before the Wuhan outbreak occurred.  We don’t know why it wasn’t causing problems like it has since then, but unless there was a significant mutation unique to the Wuhan outbreak that made it more dangerous, C19 was already circulating in humans. IOW, the pandemic itself was probably inevitable regardless of how China reacted.
> 
> (Maybe not as BAD a pandemic, but still unavoidable.)
> 
> Here’s the Reuters article referenced in the Yahoo report.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus traces found in March 2019 sewage sample, Spanish study shows
> 
> 
> Spanish virologists have found traces of the novel coronavirus in a sample of Barcelona waste water collected in March 2019, nine months before the COVID-19 disease was identified in China, the University of Barcelona said on Friday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com



My understanding is that there's a lot of uncertainty regarding the Spanish study. While it's now clear that the virus was circulating outside of China already in November-December 2019, the Spanish results seems incompatible with a lot of evidence for the virus having originated in Fall 2019. Still this doesn't change the overall point that already by the time China realized that a new virus was going around, that virus had already spread internationally.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

briggart said:


> My understanding is that there's a lot of uncertainty regarding the Spanish study. While it's now clear that the virus was circulating outside of China already in November-December 2019, the Spanish results seems incompatible with a lot of evidence for the virus having originated in Fall 2019. Still this doesn't change the overall point that already by the time China realized that a new virus was going around, that virus had already spread internationally.



I haven’t seen much pushback on the Spanish findings.  (Not saying they don’t exist.)

There have been a couple of observational studies claiming there were spikes in  anomalous patterns of what we now know to be C19 symptoms in places like Los Angeles in December 2019.  The researchers themselves admit they have no evidence beyond the medical records, though- any samples taken were not kept.


----------



## briggart

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I haven’t seen much pushback on the Spanish findings.  (Not saying they don’t exist.)
> 
> There have been a couple of observational studies claiming there were spikes in  anomalous patterns of what we now know to be C19 symptoms in places like Los Angeles in December 2019.  The researchers themselves admit they have no evidence beyond the medical records, though- any samples taken were not kept.




The Spanish study came out a couple of weeks after a similar Italian study which found covid traces in wastewater in December 2019, but not in samples before that going back a couple of years. I asked to a biologist friend if it was possible that also in Italy covid was circulating back in spring 2019 and we missed it. He said that these tests look for specific portion of DNA from a virus, not the full DNA sequence. Given that DNA traces are small, they first need to artificially replicate any such DNA, and this process introduces some errors, so there is always the possibility that what was found comes from a related virus that is compatible with sars-cov-2 within the uncertainty given by these replication errors. Combined with the fact that similar studies show it took 1-2 months between traces of virus starting to appear in wastewater and large scale epidemic, he found unlikely that the virus stayed dormant in Spain for almost a year without either leaving traces in the environment or in the medical history of patients. 

But I don't have any background in biology, so any gross error in the above is likely me misunderstanding/misremembering what I was told.


----------



## Garthanos

When Trump disbanded the pandemic response team it was not a US "only" thing but an international one, he undermined global ability to proactively fend off pandemics in 2018. We obviously cannot know the full degree that this might have helped but it really was not just the US that his actions harmed but everyone. Ebola was being fought before it reached our shores.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> The contrast between this world-wide pandemic and the West African outbreak of Ebola - another very spreadable disease - is striking.




Ebola has an R0 of 1.5 to 1.9, fairly comparable to common influenza at 0.9 to 2.

Common colds typically have an R0 of 2 to 3

Covid-19, however, has an R0 of 2 to 6.

Measels, mumps, and chicken pox, by comparison, have an R0 of 10 or higher.  So, no, ebola isn't highly spreadable, as these things go.  It is at the _lower end_ of the range of spreadability - which is good, because if it were not, we'd be dead.

Ebola is very, very dangerous to an individual - if you get it, you have like a 50% chance of dying (the death rate varies widely, outbreak to outbreak, but 50% is in the middle of the range).  Case mortality rate for covid-19 is more like 3%.

So, individuals are _more scared_ of ebola.  However, because it spreads much more, covid-19 is far more deadly to a population.  

Again, I note - China did not have the benefit of foreknowledge. Covid-19 has spread in Wuhan before anyone knew it existed.  So, they had issues controlling it.  Everyone else in the world had warning.  And still they couldn't/didn't control it.  

And remember - most of the Covid-19 in the US didn't come directly from China.  It came through Europe.  So, there's lots of folks in-between us and the source.

I understand that folks want someone to blame, especially someone other than themselves.  But trying to blame China, when we have had even worse management of it, is hardly fair.


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> Ebola has an R0 of 1.5 to 1.9, fairly comparable to common influenza at 0.9 to 2.
> 
> Common colds typically have an R0 of 2 to 3
> 
> Covid-19, however, has an R0 of 2 to 6.
> 
> Measels, mumps, and chicken pox, by comparison, have an R0 of 10 or higher.  So, no, ebola isn't highly spreadable, as these things go.  It is at the _lower end_ of the range of spreadability - which is good, because if it were not, we'd be dead.
> 
> Ebola is very, very dangerous to an individual - if you get it, you have like a 50% chance of dying (the death rate varies widely, outbreak to outbreak, but 50% is in the middle of the range).  Case mortality rate for covid-19 is more like 3%.
> 
> So, individuals are _more scared_ of ebola.  However, because it spreads much more, covid-19 is far more deadly to a population.
> 
> Again, I note - China did not have the benefit of foreknowledge. Covid-19 has spread in Wuhan before anyone knew it existed.  So, they had issues controlling it.  Everyone else in the world had warning.  And still they couldn't/didn't control it.
> 
> And remember - most of the Covid-19 in the US didn't come directly from China.  It came through Europe.  So, there's lots of folks in-between us and the source.
> 
> I understand that folks want someone to blame, especially someone other than themselves.  But trying to blame China, when we have had even worse management of it, is hardly fair.



I'm sorry, but actively suppressing information about the virus while stockpiling vital PPE and other medical supplies is not exactly what I'd call mismanagement.


----------



## Deset Gled

MoonSong said:


> I'm sorry, but actively suppressing information about the virus while stockpiling vital PPE and other medical supplies is not exactly what I'd call mismanagement.




I honestly don't know if you're being critical of China, the USA, or both.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> I honestly don't know if you're being critical of China, the USA, or both.


----------



## Umbran

MoonSong said:


> I'm sorry, but actively suppressing information about the virus while stockpiling vital PPE and other medical supplies is not exactly what I'd call mismanagement.




Yeah.  This is a "people who live in glass houses should not throw stones" thing.


----------



## ccs

Eltab said:


> Recklessness or negligence more than attempted murder ... but times the tens of millions of cases (and counting) worldwide.  There are plenty of people with reason to think dark thoughts at the Chinese leadership.




Speaking of the reckless & negligent....


			'Interesting journey': Donald Trump drives by supporters outside Walter Reed, claims progress in another video
		


WTF is wrong with this guy?  100% certain that he has a very contagious & potentially lethal virus and STILL intentionally having contact with more than the minimum # people required....


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ccs said:


> Speaking of the reckless & negligent....
> 
> 
> 'Interesting journey': Donald Trump drives by supporters outside Walter Reed, claims progress in another video
> 
> 
> 
> WTF is wrong with this guy?  100% certain that he has a very contagious & potentially lethal virus and STILL intentionally having contact with more than the minimum # people required....



I’ve seen articles citing anonymous sources within the presidential Secret Service detail that many of those agents are extremely frustrated with Trump’s disregard for safety protocols.  In short, he’s risking their well-being unnecessarily, and they don’t like it.


----------



## Umbran

ccs said:


> WTF is wrong with this guy?




I am terribly sorry to say that a proper answer to that question would likely violate this site's rules on politics.


----------



## ccs

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’ve seen articles citing anonymous sources within the presidential Secret Service detail that many of those agents are extremely frustrated with Trump’s disregard for safety protocols.  In short, he’s risking their well-being unnecessarily, and they don’t like it.




I don't doubt it.
And you'd think simple self-preservation would be an incentive to take very good care of guys who's job is taking bullets etc for you if needed.  Mistreat them &, weather intentionally or sub-consciously, they might not move as fast in an emergency....
(almost any D&D player could explain this to him via the 1e Charisma chart or the 3x/PF Leadership feat - you gotta keep that Loyalty score up.)

And then there's anyone he "visited" in the hospital & everyone their connected to.


----------



## MoonSong

This thing keeps hitting close to home. My great uncle passed away yesterday. We weren't close, but still he was essentially the patriarch of the family. I respected him and looked up to him -my father was named after him-. I feel for my grandma and my great aunt, (just the last month my great aunt lost her husband, and my aunt -her daughter- was hospitalized because of Covid and still has sequels. My aunt is barely a few years older than me.)

I can't really comprehend how things are going, and I'm more and more scared every day for everybody close to me. I'm also increasingly angrier at people who keep denying how dangerous this is (and/or keep treating this as if it was simply culling the old and the ill and it is ok because they are full of the Malthusian Kool-aid and have no empathy for these they deem undesirable). Yes, my great uncle was 90, but he was very healthy. He was in top condition, had good habits and exercised regularly. He was in better shape -and health- at 90 than many in their twenties. He didn't have a "preexisting condition". He was by no means at death's door, if not for this he could have easily made it to a hundred years while still remaining active and self-reliant.

I don't know how to feel, I'm torn between sadness, worry and anger. (Am I wadgry?) Sorry for the rant


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

@MoonSong 

Sounds justified to me.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

There’s an ad campaign in my market for the shingles vaccine, with the tag line, “Shingles doesn’t care.”  In it, that line is the response to people from a variety of demographics extolling the good things in their lives- their health, their family, their job, their hopes for the future.

I wonder if we’ll see something in the if/when of C19.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ccs said:


> Speaking of the reckless & negligent....
> 
> 
> 'Interesting journey': Donald Trump drives by supporters outside Walter Reed, claims progress in another video
> 
> 
> 
> WTF is wrong with this guy?  100% certain that he has a very contagious & potentially lethal virus and STILL intentionally having contact with more than the minimum # people required....



I cannot facepalm enough on this guy's behavior with this virus. Fails to control it nationwide, fails with testing and contact tracing, pushes us to open up with absolutely no change in treatment/vaccine, refuses to wear a mask or have people around him wear masks or social distance so he finally catches the stupid virus, and then when he has the virus he refuses to take precautions against spreading it to other people. At this point it's like he's trying to give the virus to as many people as possible. 

I never thought there would be a second Typhoid Mary, but here I am proven wrong once again by this dumpster fire year.


----------



## Deset Gled

The CDC is finally acknowledging that the virus can be airborne:









						CDC revises coronavirus guidance to acknowledge that it spreads through airborne transmission
					

"CDC's recommendations remain the same based on existing science and after a thorough technical review of the guidance," the agency said.




					www.cnbc.com
				




Of course, they posted this before and _someone_ made them retract it.  I guess whoever made them retract it isn't in a place to stop them anymore.  Hmm, wonder who that could be.


----------



## Deset Gled

Another update, Trump is leaving Walter Reed.









						'Don't Be Afraid Of It': Trump Dismisses Virus Threat As He Returns To White House
					

President Trump had been at Walter Reed since Friday evening for coronavirus treatment. In a tweet, he said, "Don't be afraid of Covid." The White House physician would not comment on the remarks.




					www.npr.org
				




This is his tweet: "I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!"

I just... I mean... I can't... Please make it stop.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Deset Gled said:


> Another update, Trump is leaving Walter Reed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'Don't Be Afraid Of It': Trump Dismisses Virus Threat As He Returns To White House
> 
> 
> President Trump had been at Walter Reed since Friday evening for coronavirus treatment. In a tweet, he said, "Don't be afraid of Covid." The White House physician would not comment on the remarks.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is his tweet: "I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!"
> 
> I just... I mean... I can't... Please make it stop.







(About the nonsense in the tweet.)


----------



## Garthanos

Deset Gled said:


> I just... I mean... I can't... Please make it stop.



Steroids can give a high 



ccs said:


> WTF is wrong with this guy?



Narcissistic Disorder


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> Well he might get what he want and be president for life.




Oof. Yeah. Maybe he used a Monkey Paw or a magic lamp.

Regarding his comments. The US does have really good medical staff and treatments. If you are fortunate enough to be able to afford them. And if you are the leader of the US? You certainly are getting a tier above what the average citizen is experiencing in care. It rings very tone deaf. Though that could be his campaign slogan at this point.


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s an ad campaign in my market for the shingles vaccine



My Doc says that the new one is very very good.


----------



## Eltab

MoonSong said:


> This thing keeps hitting close to home. My great uncle passed away yesterday. We weren't close, but still he was essentially the patriarch of the family. I respected him and looked up to him -my father was named after him-. I feel for my grandma and my great aunt, (just the last month my great aunt lost her husband, and my aunt -her daughter- was hospitalized because of Covid and still has sequels. My aunt is barely a few years older than me.)
> 
> I can't really comprehend how things are going, and I'm more and more scared every day for everybody close to me. I'm also increasingly angrier at people who keep denying how dangerous this is (and/or keep treating this as if it was simply culling the old and the ill and it is ok because they are full of the Malthusian Kool-aid and have no empathy for these they deem undesirable). Yes, my great uncle was 90, but he was very healthy. He was in top condition, had good habits and exercised regularly. He was in better shape -and health- at 90 than many in their twenties. He didn't have a "preexisting condition". He was by no means at death's door, if not for this he could have easily made it to a hundred years while still remaining active and self-reliant.
> 
> I don't know how to feel, I'm torn between sadness, worry and anger. (Am I wadgry?) Sorry for the rant



My condolences for your loss. 
I wish I could say or do something that would actually help.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> Another update, Trump is leaving Walter Reed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'Don't Be Afraid Of It': Trump Dismisses Virus Threat As He Returns To White House
> 
> 
> President Trump had been at Walter Reed since Friday evening for coronavirus treatment. In a tweet, he said, "Don't be afraid of Covid." The White House physician would not comment on the remarks.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is his tweet: "I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!"



This is completely congruent with everything else in his public life.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This is completely congruent with everything else in his public life.



That's depressingly accurate.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

He's going to be fine and somehow spin it as "COVID is NOTHING" and "I'm the toughest person EVER for surviving" as if those two things aren't mutually exclusive. Just you watch.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

FitzTheRuke said:


> He's going to be fine and somehow spin it as "COVID is NOTHING" and "I'm the toughest person EVER for surviving" as if those two things aren't mutually exclusive. Just you watch.



If he ends up being fine (which he probably will be), he will definitely do both of those things. He might even say it's a hoax, again.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump checked out of Walter Reed AMA because he’s still at great risk, but he feel illness = weakness.  

Remember, Herman Cain “felt fine” after 4 weeks, and it still got him.  Myocarditis and increased odds of having a stroke to known, relatively common side effects of C19.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Remember, Herman Cain “felt fine” after 4 weeks, and it still got him.



I just looked up how old Herman Cain is/was. He was 74 when he died, the same age as Trump now.


----------



## cbwjm

Woooo! Auckland is joining the rest of NZ and moving to level 1 which means we will feel almost normal again. No more having to wear a mask on public transport, but I think I might still throw one on for my flight to Wellington this Friday morning.


----------



## Garthanos

cbwjm said:


> Woooo! Auckland is joining the rest of NZ and moving to level 1 which means we will feel almost normal again. No more having to wear a mask on public transport, but I think I might still throw one on for my flight to Wellington this Friday morning.



I am currently considering masks a new perhaps seasonal garb any time one has even a mild cough ... not exactly temporary


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Woooo! Auckland is joining the rest of NZ and moving to level 1 which means we will feel almost normal again. No more having to wear a mask on public transport, but I think I might still throw one on for my flight to Wellington this Friday morning.




Now you get to play with the rest of the country.

I've got a hankering to see some sights up north. Waiheke Island, Hot Water Beach.

Mount Aspiring also tempting. With sod all tourists checking out the old haunts in Central Otago is also tempting.


----------



## cbwjm

Garthanos said:


> I am currently considering masks a new perhaps seasonal garb any time one has even a mild cough ... not exactly temporary



They seem to be coming into fashion around the world. I've seen articles and stores with masks as fashion items, it's crazy how it is taking off, but also good that it's taken off since depending on the severity of the virus in your area a mask may be required.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Now you get to play with the rest of the country.
> 
> I've got a hankering to see some sights up north. Waiheke Island, Hot Water Beach.
> 
> Mount Aspiring also tempting. With sod all tourists checking out the old haunts in Central Otago is also tempting.



This also means northland is no longer cut off from the rest of the country. I guess they haven't been since level 3, but during level 3 they were unable to easily interact with the rest of the country since main arteries were through Auckland.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> This also means northland is no longer cut off from the rest of the country. I guess they haven't been since level 3, but during level 3 they were unable to easily interact with the rest of the country since main arteries were through Auckland.




 Any small airports up there?


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Any small airports up there?



There are some so that would be an option, not sure how easy it would be to charter a plane or if there are regular flights though.


----------



## Dioltach

Garthanos said:


> I am currently considering masks a new perhaps seasonal garb any time one has even a mild cough ... not exactly temporary



I've seen masks with built-in earmuffs.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Some interesting Monday-morning quarterbacking from a few medical professionals regarding the reported details of Trump’s treatment.









						'That makes no sense': Doctors say Trump is either getting overtreated for the coronavirus, which could be risky, or is more seriously ill than we know
					

The decision to give the president steroids raises questions about how severe his coronavirus infection is, doctors say.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Imaculata

Everything about this is bizarre. They hurry him to a hospital, and he is put on emergency oxygen. His staff is then instructed to lie about the president being put on oxygen. Shortly afterwards he is released from hospital and even walks around without a mask claiming he is totally fine? That is not how this works. The POTUS might get the best medical help in the world, but they are not wizards.

Plus, there is the fact that Trump himself says he is totally healthy, so obviously the opposite must be true.

Maybe he insisted on the heavy treatment himself? Or he insisted on being treated at the White House in secret? Either way, all of his staff are going to be infected now, and there are going to be more books about this in the near future. This whole circus is just begging for more lucrative book deals for anyone involved.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> Everything about this is bizarre. They hurry him to a hospital, there are rumours of emergency oxygen being administered, and shortly afterwards he is released from hospital and even walks around without a mask claiming he is totally fine? That is not how this works. The POTUS might get the best medical help in the world, but they are not wizards.
> 
> Plus, there is the fact that Trump himself says he is totally healthy, so obviously the opposite must be true.
> 
> Maybe he insisted on the heavy treatment himself? Or he insisted on being treated at the White House in secret? Either way, all of his staff are going to be infected now, and there are going to be more books about this in the near future.



At this point, I don’t think he’s bluffing about having C19.  There’s at least one video announcement that he made where there’s a bad edit mid sentence, and it looks (to me and others) like it was because of coughing.

And there’s this one:

That’s not a man breathing easily or normally.  It’s taking conscious effort.

...which just means that the real question is how sick is he?

According to the speculating MDs, those are some serious meds he’s on.  Which means he’s either sicker than he’s willing to admit to the general public or he’s ordered overtreatment.

There are a great many doctors in the world, but the ones who work at
Walter Reed are- IMHO- less likely to be the kind to order treatments not indicated by a patient’s illness but rather by the patient‘s demands.  Even if that person is Pres. #45.

My weathervane?  Watch Mike Pence.


----------



## Imaculata

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There are a great many doctors in the world, but the ones who work at
> Walter Reed are- IMHO- less likely to be the kind to order treatments not indicated by a patient’s illness but rather by the patient‘s demands.  Even if that person is Pres. #45.




Here's a hypothetical scenario: What if he is seriously ill, and the doctors tell him that he should stay in the hospital under constant observation? Instead, the president stubbornly insists to be released from hospital, and to be given whatever aggressive medication they can to make him 'look' healthy, and to then to be treated at the White House.

Could the president order his medical staff to do something like this? And would they do it when told to?

*EDIT:* According to the Washington Post, apparently the president was getting bored from being at the hospital.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

That’s what I’m getting at.  Most doctors will push treatment boundaries _for certain reasons/short time periods/to meet certain theraputic goals.  _Ethical ones won’t do that to make a patient happy.

So while Trump might _order_ a treatment, MDs at Walter Reed would be less likely than average to kowtow to his whims or desires just to make him happy or ease his boredom.

If, however, his order was within their Venn Diagram of possible options, they might fo what he asked.  Hell- he’s already on experimental therapies.  That’s pushing boundaries right there.

Otherwise, he’s as free as any patient to check himself out of the hospital AMA.*





* Against Medical Advice


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> He's going to be fine and somehow spin it as "COVID is NOTHING" and "I'm the toughest person EVER for surviving" as if those two things aren't mutually exclusive. Just you watch.




Took off his mask, turned around, and walked into the White House. While contagious. I sure wouldn't want to be a White House staffer right now.


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> Everything about this is bizarre. They hurry him to a hospital, and he is put on emergency oxygen.




I would like you to note the emotionally loaded words - "hurry", "emergency".  The emotional connotation of these words may not match how the things went down.



> His staff is then instructed to lie about the president being put on oxygen.




Dude.  How often are his staff _not_ instructed to at least bend the truth?  



> Maybe he insisted on the heavy treatment himself?




Overtreatment of high-profile patients is sometimes a thing - either at their insistence, or because being the doctor who killed the patient due to undertreatment does not look good on the resume, if you know what I mean...


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Ethical ones won’t do that to make a patient happy.




The overwhelming majority of doctors are not treating the leader of the US, with this kind of personality.

If it is Monday-morning QB-ing to second guess the treatment, it is just as much to second-guess the doctor-patient dynamic.  

And, Dr Conley formally works for the White House Medical Unit, a branch of the White House Military Unit, not for Walter Reed Medical Center.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Took off his mask, turned around, and walked into the White House. While contagious. I sure wouldn't want to be a White House staffer right now.




I am left wondering at the Reckless Endangerment suits that could come out of this.  Folks in the White House are generally considered "essential workers", but that doesn't mean their working conditions are allowed to be that dangerous.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> I am left wondering at the Reckless Endangerment suits that could come out of this.  Folks in the White House are generally considered "essential workers", but that doesn't mean their working conditions are allowed to be that dangerous.




With all of the stuff that's currently in the queue, I think that Trump will be in court well into his 90s.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> And, Dr Conley formally works for the White House Medical Unit, a branch of the White House Military Unit, not for Walter Reed Medical Center.



This closing point was probably your most solid.  I had forgotten who he was: Dr. Sean Conley- licensed to kill.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I am left wondering at the Reckless Endangerment suits that could come out of this.  Folks in the White House are generally considered "essential workers", but that doesn't mean their working conditions are allowed to be that dangerous.



Unfortunately, a lot of legislation has loopholes made to specifically exclude what happens on Capitol Hill.  (Funny how that happens.)  Not sure if OSHA regs, etc. are among them, but I wouldn’t be surprised.  

That said, it’s possible that a court could find such an exclusionary clause to be unenforceable (on several grounds) and allow a case to proceed.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Unfortunately, a lot of legislation has loopholes made to specifically exclude what happens on Capitol Hill.  (Funny how that happens.)  Not sure if OSHA regs, etc. are among them, but I wouldn’t be surprised.
> 
> That said, it’s possible that a court could find such an exclusionary clause to be unenforceable (on several grounds) and allow a case to proceed.




How much immunity will extend to his extracurricular activities could also be an exciting round of litigation.  I haven't been keeping tabs on his exact whereabouts for the past months, but this president is known to spend a lot of time away from the White House (e.g. golfing, resorts, etc).  Could someone be sued for reckless endangerment by an unwitting guest or an employee at a country club that he visits on the weekend?  Will it make a difference if he owns that club, that he hasn't properly removed himself from running a number of his companies, or if the government has invested in infrastructure there?  A lot of these are untested questions, because no president has been allowed to do the things Trump has done.


----------



## tomBitonti

Background: I was reading the CNN Corona virus live stream today (06-Oct-2020), and read the following:

"Coronavirus testing in the US is still lagging, but Fauci says we're better off than we were a few months ago", from CNN’s Health Shelby Lin Erdman









						White House blocks FDA on Covid-19 vaccine guidance: New York Times report
					

The coronavirus pandemic has brought countries to a standstill. In many places, as countries reopen, Covid-19 cases are on the rise. Follow here for the latest.




					www.cnn.com
				




The article continues:


> The Abbott test, which received an Emergency Use Authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration in August, returns test results in 15 minutes. The company says the test is 97% accurate in detecting positives and 98.5% accurately identifying people who are not infected. Abbott had trouble with accuracy in one of its previous coronavirus tests.



I was interested in how those accuracy numbers translate into false negative and false positive test results.

First, there is a question of the meaning the "accuracy" percentages.  I found this, which indicates that the numbers are likely "positive percentage agreement" (PPA) and "negative percentage agreement" (NPA) values, since the numbers very closely match this published chart of test results:

"Abbott rides to the rescue with $5 Covid-19 test"








						Abbott rides to the rescue with $5 Covid-19 test
					

The BinaxNow antigen test is fast and acceptably accurate – but above all, cheap.




					www.evaluate.com
				



"Abbott reports positive and negative percent agreement"
"Accuracy of FDA-authorised antigen tests"

Date of EUACompanyTestPPANPASize*Aug 26AbbottBinaxNow*97.1%**98.5%*102Aug 18LumiraDxLumiraDx97.6%96.6%257Jul 2Beckton DickensonBD Veritor84%100%226May 8QuidelSofia Sars96.7%100%209
* Suspected positive sample size

To understand what "positive percentage agreement" and "negative percentage agreement" mean, I found the following:

"Statistical Guidance on Reporting Results from Studies Evaluating Diagnostic Tests"


			https://www.fda.gov/media/71147/download
		


And the answer is ... complicated.  PPA and NPA are measure of how well a test results match a non-standard reference test.  Without knowing the accuracy of the reference test, understanding the Abbott test results is difficult.  If the reference test was 100% accurate, then the PPA and NPA are percentage measurements of sensitivity and specificity.  But, if the reference test is less than 100% accurrate, the PPA and NPA may indicate a lesser or a greater accuracy.  For example, the test which is being compared to the reference test might agree with the reference test where the reference test is accurate, and dis-agree where the references test is inaccurate.

The FDA has this to say:


> Comparing a new test to a non-reference standard does not yield true performance.  If the new test is better than the non-reference standard, the agreement will be poor.  Alternatively, the agreement could be poor because the non-reference standard is fairly accurate and the new test is inaccurate.  There is no statistical solution to determining which scenario is the true situation.



In any case, labeling PPA and NPA as "accuracy" seems quite incorrect.

As an aside, two other values which are described by the FDA text are "sensitivity" and "specificity":

Sensitivity refers to how often the test is positive when the condition of interest is present
Specificity refers to how often the test is negative when the condition of interest is absent
Although of only small value -- given the uncertainty of the meaning of the Abbot PPA and NPA values, I took the values as measuring "accuracy" and determined the proportion of false results for different virus distributions.  That is, for populations with 90%, 50%, 10%, 1%, 0.1%, and 0.01% infected individuals:

Populations descriptions:

PercentageProportionNumber of PersonsUninfected10% 1/10100,000Infected90% 9/10900,000Total100%10/101,000,000 Uninfected50% 5/10500,000Infected50% 5/10500,000Total100%10/101,000,000 Uninfected90% 9/10900,000Infected10% 1/10100,000Total100%10/101,000,000 Uninfected99% 99/100990,000Infected1%  1/10010,000Total100%100/1001,000,000 Uninfected99.9% 999/1000999,000Infected0.1%   1/10001,000Total100.0%1000/10001,000,000 Uninfected99.99% 9999/10000999,900Infected0.01%    1/10000100Total100.00%10000/100001,000,000
Working through the numbers, I obtained the following test accuracy results.  Here "accuracy" means "Upon obtaining a test result, what is the chance that that result is correct?"

Unsurprisingly, as the proportion of the population which is infected drops, the number of false positives dominates the "infected" results, leading to increasingly worse accuracy.


Population Percent InfectedPercent True Uninfected ResultsPercent True Infected Results90%87.8%99.7%50%98.5%97.0%10%99.8%78.5%1%99.98%24.9%0.1%99.998%3.1%0.01%99.9998%0.327%

Calculations:



		Code:
	

Uninfected:     10%       ( 1/10)   100,000  U  97,000 I   3,000
Infected:       90%       ( 9/10)   900,000  U  13,500 I 886,500
Total:         100%       (10/10) 1,000,000  U 110,500 I 889,500 (U 87.8% I 99.7%)

Uninfected:     50%       ( 5/10)   500,000  U 485,000 I  15,000
Infected:       50%       ( 5/10)   500,000  U   7k500 I 492,500
Total:         100%       (10/10) 1,000,000  U 492k500 I 507,500 (U 98.5% I 97.0%)

Uninfected:     90%       ( 9/10)   900,000  U 873,000 I  27,000
Infected:       10%       ( 1/10)   100,000  U   1,500 I  98,500
Total:         100%       (10/10) 1,000,000  U 874,500 I 125,500 (U 99.8% I 78.5%)

Uninfected:     99%     ( 99/100)   990,000  U 960,300 I  29,700
Infected:        1%     (  1/100)    10,000  U     150 I   9,850
Total:         100%     (100/100) 1,000,000  U 960,450 I  39,550 (U 99.98% I 24.9%)

Uninfected:   99.9%   ( 999/1000)   999,000  U 969,030 I  29,970
Infected:      0.1%   (   1/1000)     1,000  U      15 I     985
Total:       100.0%   (1000/1000) 1,000,000  U 969,045 I  30,955 (U 99.998% I 3.1%)

Uninfected:  99.99% ( 9999/10000)   999,900  U 969,903.0 I 29,997.0
Infected:     0.01% (    1/10000)       100  U       1.5 I     98.5
Total:      100.00% (10000/10000) 1,000,000  U 969,904.5 I 30,095.5 (U 99.9998% I 0.327%)


Any errors in the above are my own.

Tom Bitonti


----------



## Eltab

That sounds like a reason to run field tests: pick some rural county with 1-5 patients at one end of the spectrum and some city with a continuing flow of patients at the other.  Order say 200,000 tests each ($1M, yes) and set up the needed Excel spreadsheets.  Track everybody who took the tests for three weeks.  We get a confirmation of their accuracy (or not) vs IRL instead of vs the current standard.


----------



## tomBitonti

Eltab said:


> That sounds like a reason to run field tests: pick some rural county with 1-5 patients at one end of the spectrum and some city with a continuing flow of patients at the other.  Order say 200,000 tests each ($1M, yes) and set up the needed Excel spreadsheets.  Track everybody who took the tests for three weeks.  We get a confirmation of their accuracy (or not) vs IRL instead of vs the current standard.




Haha, that's peanuts.  I'm expecting test budgets to run into the 10's of billions.  Figure: For USA alone, 330 million people times $10 to $100 cost to test each person one or more times (on average) gives $3.3 to $33 billion in testing costs.  (Billion in the US sense: 10 to the 9'th).

Tom Bitonti


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> How much immunity will extend to his extracurricular activities could also be an exciting round of litigation.  I haven't been keeping tabs on his exact whereabouts for the past months, but this president is known to spend a lot of time away from the White House (e.g. golfing, resorts, etc).  Could someone be sued for reckless endangerment by an unwitting guest or an employee at a country club that he visits on the weekend?  Will it make a difference if he owns that club, that he hasn't properly removed himself from running a number of his companies, or if the government has invested in infrastructure there?  A lot of these are untested questions, because no president has been allowed to do the things Trump has done.



It’s a question I can’t give a good answer to.

Reason: most of the stuff you’re asking about isn’t covered by federal law, but state law.  Nearly anywhere else in the country, state prosecutors & civil attorneys could be on him like white on rice (eventually) for that stuff.  But DC is it’s own little pocket, and ya legal system is an odd checkerboard.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Just saw this, and had a knowing, rueful chuckle.


----------



## ccs

Ah, 2020 keeps on giving:
A global pandemic,
wrecked/disrupted economies
Australia & California/the western USA on fire,
Murder Hornets,
protests & riots,
_&^_ stupid people furthering the pandemic,
Politicians,
potential meteor strike
more politicians,

And now the _whales_ are attacking us!  _Not that we don't deserve it, but still.... really?_








						A pod of 'crazy' killer whales is launching coordinated attacks on boats, terrifying the sailors and baffling scientists
					

Orcas are ramming sailboats along the Spanish and Portuguese coasts in an unprecedented display of aggressive behavior.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ccs said:


> Ah, 2020 keeps on giving:
> A global pandemic,
> wrecked/disrupted economies
> Australia & California/the western USA on fire,
> Murder Hornets,
> protests & riots,
> _&^_ stupid people furthering the pandemic,
> Politicians,
> potential meteor strike
> more politicians,
> 
> And now the _whales_ are attacking us!  _Not that we don't deserve it, but still.... really?_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A pod of 'crazy' killer whales is launching coordinated attacks on boats, terrifying the sailors and baffling scientists
> 
> 
> Orcas are ramming sailboats along the Spanish and Portuguese coasts in an unprecedented display of aggressive behavior.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com



Who ever wrote this season of Earth was throwing in all the clichés. Of course just a month before the election the POTUS catches a super contagious, very dangerous disease. And of course he's dumb enough to pretend like it's nothing. And of course within a day of Election Day an asteroid will be passing by. 

There is so much going wrong that makes this feel like I'm living in a crappy TV show that can't think of anything original, so they just pile up every possible calamity into just the span of one year. Thanks 2020.


----------



## MoonSong

ccs said:


> Ah, 2020 keeps on giving:
> A global pandemic,
> wrecked/disrupted economies
> Australia & California/the western USA on fire,
> Murder Hornets,
> protests & riots,
> _&^_ stupid people furthering the pandemic,
> Politicians,
> potential meteor strike
> more politicians,
> 
> And now the _whales_ are attacking us!  _Not that we don't deserve it, but still.... really?_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A pod of 'crazy' killer whales is launching coordinated attacks on boats, terrifying the sailors and baffling scientists
> 
> 
> Orcas are ramming sailboats along the Spanish and Portuguese coasts in an unprecedented display of aggressive behavior.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com



You forgot more hurricanes than we had names for.


----------



## ccs

MoonSong said:


> You forgot more hurricanes than we had names for.




Considering all the languages & words in the world, we really didn't run out of names for them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Community spread eliminated 2.0.









						Covid-19: Have we really 'squashed' the Auckland cluster? There's a 'very high likelihood'
					

With no remaining community cases, experts are hopeful - but say coronavirus is a problem we have to keep on solving.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				





Not technically Covid free again due to imported cases but they're in qurantine. D&D night so off to do that.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ccs said:


> Considering all the languages & words in the world, we really didn't run out of names for them.



I’m sure that you know that they generate a list that they work from.  But your response makes me think about some of the possibilities.  On the one hand, the names could be rude, political, numerous, disgusting, etc., but given how dangerous they are, the unintended consequences.

Who would evacuate from Hurricane Cuddles?  How would you feel if you lost all your worldly possessions to Hurricane Taco?


----------



## ccs

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m sure that you know that they generate a list that they work from.  But your response makes me think about some of the possibilities.  On the one hand, the names could be rude, political, numerous, disgusting, etc., but given how dangerous they are, the unintended consequences.
> 
> Who would evacuate from Hurricane Cuddles?  How would you feel if you lost all your worldly possessions to Hurricane Taco?




Well, those would be examples of poor word/name choices.
But you know what?  So is a name like Dolly.  Not very frightening sounding that one.  Now Hurricane Githyankee.....  Or Tropical Storm Hydra....

And yes, I know how they generate & rotate their naming list.  I think it's stupid.  At the very least it's short sighted.  Especially in the here & now and going forward.  I mean, 1) it doesn't take much effort to expand each of the letters by say +3 names. 2) There's plenty of names out there & 3) predictions are that things will keep worsening.  So maybe it's time to revise the naming protocols.


----------



## Dioltach

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Who would evacuate from Hurricane Cuddles?




That actually sounds scary. "I'm here, now WHO WANTS A CUDDLE?"


----------



## Hussar

I keep forgetting you folks keep naming your storms.  We just number the Typhoons here.  This year's been fairly mild on this side of the Pacific.  Typhoon 14 is headed our way this weekend.  Last one was a bit of a doozy but, this one's supposed to be not so bad.

And, happily, Fukuoka Prefecture is under 500 cases.  Woot.  Not bad for a population of a touch over 5 million.  And, now we have the Go Go Japan campaign starting to jump start tourism in the country.  They are bound and determined to have the Olympics here next year.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Just saw this, and had a knowing, rueful chuckle.




Et tu, Michael?


----------



## Umbran

ccs said:


> Considering all the languages & words in the world, we really didn't run out of names for them.




And heck, we can make up names if we have to.  Like, Hurricane YouGottaBeKiddingMe.  And, Hurricane SeriouslyEnoughAlready


----------



## Mallus

I'm am eagerly awaiting hurricane Alpha-Omega (will it be radioactive? why not, it's 2020!). 

Probably because we don't own property in Florida or along the Gulf Coast. And because my wife and I watched way too many SyFy Channel disaster movies.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mallus said:


> I'm am eagerly awaiting hurricane Alpha-Omega (will it be radioactive? why not, it's 2020!).
> 
> Probably because we don't own property in Florida or along the Gulf Coast. And because my wife and I watched way too many SyFy Channel disaster movies.




 Don't say that I think they mentioned nuking a hurricane. 

 Our glorious leader. 






 Election just over a week.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Don't say that I think they mentioned nuking a hurricane.
> 
> Our glorious leader.
> 
> ...
> 
> Election just over a week.




I don't know if there's anyone else on the boards from New Zealand, however, the "no politics" rule isn't just "no US politics".  Your elections are not really something for discussion here.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

More clarity on neck gaiters AND a second study focused solely on them.  More research is needed, but the authors of the (still unpublished, so not replicated or peer reviewed) new study indicates the number of layers (2 is better, 3 is best) and- to a certain extent- materials matter more than actual mask type.  Some of the multilayer gaiters were as effective or more effective than more traditional mask types.

If these results stand up to scientific scrutiny, that could be a boon to people with genuine mask comfort or acquisition issues.









						Neck gaiters can protect against spreading COVID-19, study finds
					

“Fighting this pandemic requires us to encourage everyone to wear face coverings, and excluding a very popular face covering is a mistake," one of the study's authors told Yahoo Life.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Don't say that I think they mentioned nuking a hurricane.




Well, "they" (scientists) many decades ago.  And discarded it.
But to be fair they considered nukes/radiation for a great many impractical things.

More recently just one.  Who probably still thinks it'd be a good idea....


----------



## Hussar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> More clarity on neck gaiters AND a second study focused solely on them.  More research is needed, but the authors of the (still unpublished, so not replicated or peer reviewed) new study indicates the number of layers (2 is better, 3 is best) and- to a certain extent- materials matter more than actual mask type.  Some of the multilayer gaiters were as effective or more effective than more traditional mask types.
> 
> If these results stand up to scientific scrutiny, that could be a boon to people with genuine mask comfort or acquisition issues.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Neck gaiters can protect against spreading COVID-19, study finds
> 
> 
> “Fighting this pandemic requires us to encourage everyone to wear face coverings, and excluding a very popular face covering is a mistake," one of the study's authors told Yahoo Life.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



Ok, not quite up to speed here, but, someone finds a mask uncomfortable, but, this is ok?  Buh?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> Ok, not quite up to speed here, but, someone finds a mask uncomfortable, but, this is ok?  Buh?



Most masks are secured by loops over the ears.*  Those _can_ become abrasive, especially if you have to wear them a long time or have to adjust them frequently due to fit.**  It’s a common enough issue that improvised and commercial loop anchors exist that draw the loops away from the ears to the back of your head.

Add to that, I’ve seen people wearing masks + eyeglasses + earrings + AirPods...  that’s a lot of work for a pair of cartilaginous protuberances.

A gaiter, OTOH, is kind of like pulling a turtleneck sweater up over your face.




* I’m doing mine a bit differently, with a lanyard with a locking slider

** I don’t usually have problems, but I have had a few disposable masks that just refused to stay in place.


----------



## Hussar

To be fair, we've gotten away with these sort of half mask things here - sort of a half plastic shield that goes upward from your chin to just past your nose.  All the folks on the TV are wearing these things and apparently, they are good enough:


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> To be fair, we've gotten away with these sort of half mask things here - sort of a half plastic shield that goes upward from your chin to just past your nose.  All the folks on the TV are wearing these things and apparently, they are good enough:




For you folks, maybe.  I don't think they'd be found to be sufficiently protective here.


----------



## Deset Gled

Hussar said:


> Ok, not quite up to speed here, but, someone finds a mask uncomfortable, but, this is ok?  Buh?




IMNSHO, gaiters are also so much more convenient.  On the occasions I've been at my office, I can throw a gaiter on in the morning and basically forget about it.  When I sit at my computer, I pull it down and am comfortable.  When I go get a cup of coffee, I pull it up.  Ditto for hiking.  I'm walking along a trail in solitude (or with my family), my gaiter is down; I hear someone walking in the distance, I pull it up.

Compare that to a mask.  Every time I need to put it on (either in the office, getting out of the car, hiking, etc) I have to do the awkward dance of "Where did I put that thing down?"  Is it in my pocket?  On the desk?  Then I have to get it on, adjust the nose piece, use two hands, etc.  Also, I can't count the number of times I've stepped out of my door (or car, or wherever) and only thought about the mask 2 seconds afterward, then scrambled back to get it.  The gaiter prevents all of that and makes it a simple part of my oh-so-fashionable ensemble.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> IMNSHO, gaiters are also so much more convenient.




The problem being that most of them are only one layer, and they are often of knit fabrics that don't actually stop you from emitting droplets into the air around you very well.  It's like tying a bandana around your face - pretty convenient, but the fabric is too thin, and the fit usually not good enough to serve this purpose.

It isn't the garment's fault - they weren't originally intended for this use.  So, you have to go out of your way to get one that fits the current needs.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> For you folks, maybe.  I don't think they'd be found to be sufficiently protective here.



Almost certainly not, here, because they do nothing about aerosolization. Clear full-face shields are used by surgeons, and occasionally other hospital staff, to protect against spray. The pictured mask does pretty much nothing.

A designer that I know, through his bad habit of throwing away vast amounts of money on motorcycle racing, is going to soon be doing a crowdfunding campaign for a N95 style mask that uses a front clear plastic shield, with a perimeter filter design. I'd be comfortable wearing something like that.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> For you folks, maybe.  I don't think they'd be found to be sufficiently protective here.



Yeah- they might stop or redirect what we emit by normal respiration, but yelling, singing, coughing or sneezing will mostly be unimpeded.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> The problem being that most of them are only one layer, and they are often of knit fabrics that don't actually stop you from emitting droplets into the air around you very well.



That was a major point of the study.

The researchers recommended either buying multilayer gaiters or doubling up on the single layer ones via folding.


----------



## Istbor

Can we talk about how the President of the United States of America who tested positive and received treatment for COVID-19 last week, is now still planning on making two in-person rallies this weekend?


----------



## Deset Gled

Istbor said:


> Can we talk about how the President of the United States of America who tested positive and received treatment for COVID-19 last week, is now still planning on making two in-person rallies this weekend?




Please allow me to respond with emoji.


----------



## tomBitonti

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Most masks are secured by loops over the ears.*  Those _can_ become abrasive, especially if you have to wear them a long time or have to adjust them frequently due to fit.**  It’s a common enough issue that improvised and commercial loop anchors exist that draw the loops away from the ears to the back of your head.



I was thinking that there should be a product which was a padded ring to put around ones ears, that would cushion thin mask straps.  This seems to be an easy to make product and an easily solved problem.  Actually, there are hair ties which might do the job as is.
Be safe, be well,
Tom B


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Istbor said:


> Can we talk about how the President of the United States of America who tested positive and received treatment for COVID-19 last week, is now still planning on making two in-person rallies this weekend?



And is also claiming that he is immune and that he found yet another miracle cure! Why!?!?


----------



## Umbran

tomBitonti said:


> I was thinking that there should be a product which was a padded ring to put around ones ears, that would cushion thin mask straps.




Most folk don't have a whole lot of depth behind their ears in which to put padding along with the ear strap of the mask.

The simplest solution seems to be a short strap with a large coat button on each end.  The strap goes across the back of your head, and the ear loops go around the button instead of your ears.  Problem solved.  My wife crocheted a bunch of these for friends who have to wear masks all day at the start of this.

There are professionally made variations on the concept as well...









						The 6 Best Face Mask Extenders to Make Your Face Covering More Comfortable
					

These are the best face mask extenders from Amazon and Etsy to make wearing a cloth covering more comfortable—plus, how they can make it easier to follow CDC guidelines.




					www.health.com


----------



## Istbor

AcererakTriple6 said:


> And is also claiming that he is immune and that he found yet another miracle cure! Why!?!?



Might have to do with a certain CEO being a member of a certain person's Westchester, New York golf club. Or that the company got a fat government grant through operation warp speed. 

Supposedly this certain someone also had stock in that treatment as well as others being used heavily for the current health crisis (but has had that for some time now).

Unsurprisingly the company's stock surged after Monday. 

If none of that fuels some conspiracy theories, I'll buy a hat and eat it.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Most folk don't have a whole lot of depth behind their ears in which to put padding along with the ear strap of the mask.
> 
> The simplest solution seems to be a short strap with a large coat button on each end.  The strap goes across the back of your head, and the ear loops go around the button instead of your ears.  Problem solved.  My wife crocheted a bunch of these for friends who have to wear masks all day at the start of this.
> 
> There are professionally made variations on the concept as well...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The 6 Best Face Mask Extenders to Make Your Face Covering More Comfortable
> 
> 
> These are the best face mask extenders from Amazon and Etsy to make wearing a cloth covering more comfortable—plus, how they can make it easier to follow CDC guidelines.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.health.com


----------



## Garthanos

Deset Gled said:


> Please allow me to respond with emoji.



Consolation he may have had it for a longer time and was already spreading it... 35 of his inner circle so to speak now sporting it.


----------



## Umbran

Hey, Spidey really can cling to anything!
Good movie reference too!  Several stars!


----------



## MoonSong

I don't think this was mentioned before:






						Homepage | TV6 News
					

With the help of the technology behind the cryptocurrency, the sale of…



					tv6.news
				




So, the English vaccine not only caused some safety issues, it's possible it doesn't fully work.... Or he was in the placebo group.

Speaking of vaccines, have those of you in the Northern hemisphere taken this year's flu shot yet?


----------



## Umbran

MoonSong said:


> So, the English vaccine not only caused some safety issues, it's possible it doesn't fully work.... Or he was in the placebo group.




No vaccine is 100% effective.  And, the placebo group needs to be large enough to get a solid estimate of how many people who got the vaccine should have gotten sick.  And, if nobody in the placebo gets sick, you cannot actually measure the effectiveness of the vaccine.  Thus, the fate of one person in the trial tells you _absolutely nothing_ about the real effectiveness.


----------



## Garthanos

MoonSong said:


> Speaking of vaccines, have those of you in the Northern hemisphere taken this year's flu shot yet?



Absolutely ... whether people take vaccine is in the top 5 long life correlations they have found. (exercise isn't even that high)


----------



## MoonSong

Garthanos said:


> Absolutely ... whether people take vaccine is in the top 5 long life correlations they have found. (exercise isn't even that high)



Getting it was a nightmare this year. It took us three attempts to find a place with it. The health ministry didn't plan properly. They had the same number of doses as last year, and neglected to consider more people would want to vaccinate this season because of the pandemic. This is just one of the many logistics problems they've had. I worry about the time there is an actual vaccine for corona, because our local equivalent of the FDA has been subsumed into another agency -essentially losing independence and budget-. Did I mention that agency is directed by a lawyer instead of a medical doctor?  My biggest fear is they rubber stamping a poorly tested Russian or Chinese vaccine just to make the problem go away.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Planning on taking Mom for her vaccination today, and will get mine when she does.


----------



## Garthanos

D&D ... I mean hanging out with friends in one fashion or another is also high on the long life correlations


----------



## Garthanos

MoonSong said:


> So, the English vaccine not only caused some safety issues, it's possible it doesn't fully work.... Or he was in the placebo group.



The one I was following seemed safe enough they arent sure about whether it works "for real" or "for how long", but there were positive indications like inducing antibody response


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Assuming an effective, safe C19 vaccine can be made affordably, I’m not too concerned about the duration of its protection.  I get 3 allergy injections every 2 weeks.  It’s not a big deal if we needed annual or even monthly C19 boosters, IMHO.

And no, I do not like needles.  I’ve been on that injection regimen for decades, and I still can’t look when it’s being done.


----------



## MarkB

MoonSong said:


> Speaking of vaccines, have those of you in the Northern hemisphere taken this year's flu shot yet?



Yes, last Tuesday. I'm pleased to say that my local GP surgery had things well in hand. They contacted me with a selection of available dates for a walk-through vaccination service, provided a convenient appointment time and clear instructions - patients were to turn up wearing masks and with their arm bare ready for the jab.

When I arrived, I found that the whole thing was set up outdoors in their carpark. They'd used tape and bollards to mark out separate paths for the under 65s and over 65s vaccines, and the staff administering them were set up under gazebos. It was a simple round trip in and out, and I was one of only two patients going through at the time, the other coming in around 30 seconds after me.


----------



## Retreater

America will be ten years behind, at least.


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> And is also claiming that he is immune and that he found yet another miracle cure! Why!?!?



A moment to consider that, after you fight off a disease, your immune system is charged up to destroy any more of that germ / virus that comes into contact with you.  "Immunity" but after the fact.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Eltab said:


> A moment to consider that, after you fight off a disease, your immune system is charged up to destroy any more of that germ / virus that comes into contact with you.  "Immunity" but after the fact.



Yes, afterwards. Trump is not in the "afterwards" period of his fight with Coronavirus. You do typically get some kind of immunity to a disease after you recover from it (there are exceptions to this for individual people and diseases). 

It is frustrating to see the leader of my country who is still obviously fighting with a deadly disease claim that the medicines he took were a "miracle cure" that he wants to give to everyone. And this isn't even the first time he's done it, for goodness sakes!


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Assuming an effective, safe C19 vaccine can be made affordably, I’m not too concerned about the duration of its protection.  I get 3 allergy injections every 2 weeks.  It’s not a big deal if we needed annual or even monthly C19 boosters, IMHO.
> 
> And no, I do not like needles.  I’ve been on that injection regimen for decades, and I still can’t look when it’s being done.



I am confident it will happen eventually middle to late next year was the best un politically motivated most reasonable estimate I heard for us to have it in the US.


Eltab said:


> A moment to consider that, after you fight off a disease, your immune system is charged up to destroy any more of that germ / virus that comes into contact with you.  "Immunity" but after the fact.



Potential damage from Covid Heart/Lung/Kidney/Vascular and Brain. Your immune system learns specialized karate against a new target but if your body and even the resources to fight other diseases are ripped to shreds by the first encounter and in fact many diseases remain resident (see Shingles) and Trumpster hasn't had it long enough to be done with his first case.  The not getting torn up is why vaccines are awesome.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yep.  Just because you fight off the respiratory effects in a couple weeks, you’re not out of the woods yet.  Myocarditis, increased stroke risk...there’s all kinds of lingering potential aftereffects.


----------



## Zardnaar

Covid goneburger 2.0. 









						Bledisloe Cup photo stuns sporting world
					

The series opener thrilled rugby fans, but it's been much more divisive in the USA.




					www.nzherald.co.nz
				




  Rugby again. Not a fan of rugby.


----------



## Imaculata

It baffles me how many people are simply in denial of what is going on. Some people carry on with their lives as if there is not a deadly pandemic that thrives through gatherings of large crowds.

Over in the Netherlands, I feel it is slowly starting to sink in that perhaps people should be taking it more serious. I am seeing more and more people wearing a mask at the supermarket, when a few weeks ago I was the only one.

And yet just the other week, the police had to shut down countless of illegal parties throughout the country.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> It baffles me how many people are simply in denial of what is going on. Some people carry on with their lives as if there is not a deadly pandemic that thrives through gatherings of large crowds.
> 
> Over in the Netherlands, I feel it is slowly starting to sink in that perhaps people should be taking it more serious. I am seeing more and more people wearing a mask at the supermarket, when a few weeks ago I was the only one.
> 
> And yet just the other week, the police had to shut down countless of illegal parties throughout the country.




 Read this earlier in the day. 



			https://www.bbc.com/news/world-54482905
		


  Heading into flu season up north.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Read this earlier in the day.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-54482905
> 
> 
> 
> Heading into flu season up north.



Because of everyone washing hands more often and social distancing, we have had far fewer serious cases of the flu than normal, a positive of the pandemic. If other countries up north are doing the same, I'd expect similar results.


----------



## Cadence

MoonSong said:


> Speaking of vaccines, have those of you in the Northern hemisphere taken this year's flu shot yet?




The local CVS pharmacy has them.  This weekend was the first time I'd been inside the store in ages because if COVID.  Less than a half dozen customers in the entire store and none at the pharmacy part.  (The drive through was non-stop busy).

My son got one at a regular doctors appointment a few weeks ago for something else.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Because of everyone washing hands more often and social distancing, we have had far fewer serious cases of the flu than normal, a positive of the pandemic. If other countries up north are doing the same, I'd expect similar results.




I got the flu shot  n May iirc. Skipped getting a cold this year but allergies kicked in early.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> I got the flu shot  n May iirc. Skipped getting a cold this year but allergies kicked in early.



My allergies have been a bit nasty recently too... and with the amount of COVID19 around it makes them scarier.


----------



## cbwjm

Garthanos said:


> My allergies have been a bit nasty recently too... and with the amount of COVID19 around it makes them scarier.



A problem with allergies in the current climate. Even if you're 100% certain you're covid free, you really don't want to be sneezing.


----------



## Garthanos

cbwjm said:


> A problem with allergies in the current climate. Even if you're 100% certain you're covid free, you really don't want to be sneezing.



Nod and It's not like I can get fast tests every day and choose not to like the corona president in chief so that I will actually BE certain.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

'I Feel Like I Have Dementia': Brain Fog Plagues COVID Survivors
					

After contracting the coronavirus in March, Michael Reagan lost all memory of his 12-day vacation in Paris, even though the trip was just a few weeks earlier.Several weeks after Erica Taylor recovered from her COVID-19 symptoms of nausea and cough, she became confused and forgetful, failing to...




					news.yahoo.com
				




_This_ scares me.  I’ve known people with disease-related aphasia or memory loss, and even experienced something like this when on post-surgical drugs.  I was functionally illiterate for most of a year because I couldn’t read print smaller than you’d see in a street sign.


----------



## Dioltach

For those with allergies: try rubbing Vaseline up your nostrils. It prevents the irritants from irritating and triggering your sneeze reflex. (I developed hayfever about 18 months ago, and now I use Vaseline whenever I go outside for any length of time.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Dioltach said:


> For those with allergies: try rubbing Vaseline up your nostrils. It prevents the irritants from irritating and triggering your sneeze reflex. (I developed hayfever about 18 months ago, and now I use Vaseline whenever I go outside for any length of time.)




 Doctor put me on inhalers earlier in the year so ignored anti hystemines. 

  Started itching in August as we had warm winter. 

 Usually just suck it up. Pine pollen was really bad this year though.


----------



## Imaculata

Dannyalcatraz said:


> 'I Feel Like I Have Dementia': Brain Fog Plagues COVID Survivors
> 
> 
> After contracting the coronavirus in March, Michael Reagan lost all memory of his 12-day vacation in Paris, even though the trip was just a few weeks earlier.Several weeks after Erica Taylor recovered from her COVID-19 symptoms of nausea and cough, she became confused and forgetful, failing to...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _This_ scares me.  I’ve known people with disease-related aphasia or memory loss, and even experienced something like this when on post-surgical drugs.  I was functionally illiterate for most of a year because I couldn’t read print smaller than you’d see in a street sign.




This sounds some what familiar. After my father underwent surgery for bowel cancer, he caught a nasty lung infection in the hospital. They kept him in an artificial coma for a while, but afterwards he wasn't the same. He was delirious for a while, and even to this very day he is more forgetful than before. He also seems more somber than before the operation, and has trouble reading books (his favourite hobby) for long stretches of time.

If a mere lung infection can do that to a person, I can imagine something as nasty as COVID doing a lot worse.

There was a local news report in my province just a few days ago, about a former contender for the strongest man of the Netherlands. This is a guy who has always been in superior health, until he caught COVID. Now even a few minutes of walking leaves him out of breath. It is as if he has only 40% of his normal lung capacity.


"Strongest man, struck down by corona". No subtitles unfortunately. He does say that he's making minor progress every day. He says he is shocked to hear people around him suggest that he's getting paid to put up some kind of act.


----------



## Umbran

Dioltach said:


> For those with allergies: try rubbing Vaseline up your nostrils. It prevents the irritants from irritating and triggering your sneeze reflex. (I developed hayfever about 18 months ago, and now I use Vaseline whenever I go outside for any length of time.)




Not quite correct, on two counts.

1) For most of us, the point of entry of airborne allergens into our system is up on the mucus membranes high in the nasal passages, beyond where you can (or should) shove a vaseline-covered finger.

2) There are two ways you generate sneezes - particulates you inhale physically irritate the surfaces of those upper membranes, or the allergic biochemical cascade response causes inflammation and mucus production, which then stimulates sneezing.  The former of these may be a reaction to _any particulates_, and is not technically an allergic response.

Vaseline up the nose does the same job mucus does - it traps particulates before they can reach those upper membranes.  However, be aware that, since it is _not_ mucus, the body does not necessary expel the resulting particulate-ladened goo in the same way, and you may be trapping a bunch of dust, mold and bacterial spores up in the nice warm, damp environment of your nose where they may choose to grow.

I am glad you have not had issues with sinus infections resulting from this, but it isn't a recommended treatment for allergies.


----------



## Garthanos

My allergy symptoms are virus, primarily sinus drain triggering a cough although it does not last and mostly antihistamines do treat it well but once in a while it runs very strong and is fatiguing and with the poor sleep I have been getting even more so.  In a sense too similar.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Got mine on Friday. The reaction...was not fun. Aches, chills, and and nausea. I was actually playing D&D when it hit and had to excuse myself and log off. Twenty minutes later, I was throwing up. So far, everyone I've talked to has mentioned that the side effects this year were particularly rough. I was fairly useless the next day, but the day after that I was fine and went for a nice long walk.



MoonSong said:


> Speaking of vaccines, have those of you in the Northern hemisphere taken this year's flu shot yet?


----------



## FitzTheRuke

We're only just able to start getting our vaccinations this week, by appointment, and there's quite long wait times (they expect double the normal number of people getting it; normally you just walk into a pharmacy and say you want it).


----------



## Protonicmass

Umbran said:


> Not quite correct, on two counts.
> 
> 1) For most of us, the point of entry of airborne allergens into our system is up on the mucus membranes high in the nasal passages, beyond where you can (or should) shove a vaseline-covered finger.
> 
> 2) There are two ways you generate sneezes - particulates you inhale physically irritate the surfaces of those upper membranes, or the allergic biochemical cascade response causes inflammation and mucus production, which then stimulates sneezing.  The former of these may be a reaction to _any particulates_, and is not technically an allergic response.
> 
> Vaseline up the nose does the same job mucus does - it traps particulates before they can reach those upper membranes.  However, be aware that, since it is _not_ mucus, the body does not necessary expel the resulting particulate-ladened goo in the same way, and you may be trapping a bunch of dust, mold and bacterial spores up in the nice warm, damp environment of your nose where they may choose to grow.
> 
> I am glad you have not had issues with sinus infections resulting from this, but it isn't a recommended treatment for allergies.



Wait a minute... Is this thread actually allowed to exist? I thought politics and religion were out of the question, arguing about COVID doesn't seem like a good discussion for a gaming forum.


----------



## Protonicmass

FitzTheRuke said:


> We're only just able to start getting our vaccinations this week, by appointment, and there's quite long wait times (they expect double the normal number of people getting it; normally you just walk into a pharmacy and say you want it).



• The vaccines shouldn't be rushed. We don't know what's in them, we don't know the long-term consequences, and for all we know the side effects could be worse than the disease.


----------



## Deset Gled

Protonicmass said:


> • The vaccines shouldn't be rushed. We don't know what's in them, we don't know the long-term consequences, and for all we know the side effects could be worse than the disease.



I believe he was talking about the yearly flu vaccine.


----------



## Protonicmass

Deset Gled said:


> I believe he was talking about the yearly flu vaccine.



Which flu?


----------



## Protonicmass

Deset Gled said:


> I believe he was talking about the yearly flu vaccine.



Ahh, that one. Sorry dude, but vaccines are like e-cigs to your immune system.


----------



## Deset Gled

Protonicmass said:


> Which flu?





Protonicmass said:


> Ahh, that one. Sorry dude, but vaccines are like e-cigs to your immune system.



Are you OK?


----------



## Garthanos

Ralif Redhammer said:


> Got mine on Friday. The reaction...was not fun. Aches, chills, and and nausea. I was actually playing D&D when it hit and had to excuse myself and log off. Twenty minutes later, I was throwing up. So far, everyone I've talked to has mentioned that the side effects this year were particularly rough. I was fairly useless the next day, but the day after that I was fine and went for a nice long walk.



No side effects here at all for any of my family or friends...


----------



## Istbor

Protonicmass said:


> Ahh, that one. Sorry dude, but vaccines are like e-cigs to your immune system.



What?


----------



## Protonicmass

Deset Gled said:


> What?



It's just that getting a vaccine for the flu, the normal one, is a foolish decision.


----------



## Deset Gled

Protonicmass said:


> It's just that getting a vaccine for the flu, the normal one, is a foolish decision.



1.  No.

2.  You are aware that there isn't a COVID-19 vaccine yet, right?


----------



## Protonicmass

Deset Gled said:


> 1.  No.
> 
> 2.  You are aware that there isn't a COVID-19 vaccine yet, right?



1. Yes.

2. Oh, there is probably a dozen vaccines, they just haven't been fully tested or released yet.


----------



## Protonicmass

Deset Gled said:


> 1.  No.
> 
> 2.  You are aware that there isn't a COVID-19 vaccine yet, right?



I'm not saying that nobody can ever get a vaccine, or that all vaccines are bad, or that the creation of vaccines was harmful. But

1. Most vaccines are made from aborted babies.
2. Side effects! A lot of vaccines just aren't worth it.
3. Sometimes, you need to just soldier through a disease, like I do with the flu. Your body will build antibodies, and strengthen your immune system. If you vaccinate, your body will never learn to fight it.


----------



## Umbran

Protonicmass said:


> Wait a minute... Is this thread actually allowed to exist? I thought politics and religion were out of the question, arguing about COVID doesn't seem like a good discussion for a gaming forum.




The virus dosn't give a fetid dingo's kidney what political party you're part of.


----------



## Protonicmass

Umbran said:


> The virus dosn't give a fetid dingo's kidney what political party you're part of.



I knew that, thank you for the kind words.


----------



## Protonicmass

Umbran said:


> The virus dosn't give a fetid dingo's kidney what political party you're part of.



What I meant was, whether it was an appropriate topic. According to the rules. Politics starts up heated arguments. Religion starts up heated arguments. So it would seem that the pandemic, which effects some badly, and some not at all, might be given the same treatment.


----------



## Umbran

Protonicmass said:


> 1. Most vaccines are made from aborted babies.




There's at least five vaccines that are being developed using cell lines developed from fetal tissue, yes.  But do note that the two lines being used were started in 1972 and 1985, and cultured since that time.  These cell lines are older than many of our posters.  They are not using _recent_ tissues for development or production.  That's not how the process works.



Protonicmass said:


> 2. Side effects! A lot of vaccines just aren't worth it.




Commonly available vaccines do not have common side effects that are worse than the diseases they prevent.  You may find an occasional individual who turns up to be allergic.  And vaccines activate your immune system, so sometimes you'll feel some symptoms associated with that process.  But vaccines are tested for safety.  



Protonicmass said:


> 3. Sometimes, you need to just soldier through a disease, like I do with the flu. Your body will build antibodies, and strengthen your immune system. If you vaccinate, your body will never learn to fight it.




You have this _exactly_ backwards.

A vaccine presents useful proteins from a virus to your immune system.  An effective vaccine teaches your immune system how to fight the disease, build its antibodies and teach its immune system cells, just like the virus were present (or better, in some cases) without having to actually catch the disease!  This is the _entire purpose_ of a vaccine.


----------



## Umbran

*Mod Note:*

It turns out that Protonicmass here was an alt account for someone banned from the boards several times over.  They'll not be continuing in this discussion, or any others.  We advise you to not reply to their contributions.


----------



## Cadence

So, our local district started off with either having:  (a) 2 days on 3 virtual or (b) all 5 virtual.   Beginning November 12th they're hoping to have some of the grades (including the one directly impacting our family) go back to 5-day a week live.  This hinges on the state DHEC (Department of Health and Environmental Control) having our county rated low at the board meeting on the 27th this month, and staying there until it starts.

Luckily, our state health folks seem to be not being coerced into doing anything with the numbers (the governor just ignores them if he wants to do something else, and has foisted most things onto the municipalities for decision making) and our state numbers aren't horrific (rt.live has had us sub-1 since late June, and our new cases have been pretty steady since mid August (a bit under 1k/day) with deaths treanding down since July. The 35k University in town is down to 46 active cases (doing about 3k tests per week) from a peak of around 1400. 

So, if we were New Zealand we'd have all been on total lockdown for a while... but at least we don't seem to be Wisconsin. My son isn't particularly amused about going back - but I'm not sure how much of that is worry and how much is the comfort of being home. (He's enjoyed going to scouts live the last two weeks - outside, or heavily ventilated garage, everyone in masks, <10 people). 

Anyway, the D&D with his friends is staying on-line.
Our FLGS has started opening three nights a week for MtG (limited seating, masks).  I've been in to buy, but am playing that online too.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Protonicmass said:


> I'm not saying that nobody can ever get a vaccine, or that all vaccines are bad, or that the creation of vaccines was harmful. But
> 
> 1. Most vaccines are made from aborted babies.
> 2. Side effects! A lot of vaccines just aren't worth it.
> 3. Sometimes, you need to just soldier through a disease, like I do with the flu. Your body will build antibodies, and strengthen your immune system. If you vaccinate, your body will never learn to fight it.



1) Factually incorrect.  Most are made from killed or weakened versions od the pathogen they are designed to fight against.

2) While side effects exist, vaccines have to go through multiple phases of testing to reach the public.  Dangerous ones don’t make it, generally, unless there are _long term_ effects that wouldn’t have shown up during the relatively short test period OR due to interactions with other substances that couldn’t be simulated under lab conditions.

3) Factually incorrect.  See #1 above- the nature of most vaccines dictates the very mechanism by which most vaccines work is by training the body to produce antibodies against a given pathogen.


----------



## AlastortheExecutioner

Umbran said:


> *Mod Note:*
> 
> It turns out that Protonicmass here was an alt account for someone banned from the boards several times over.  They'll not be continuing in this discussion, or any others.  We advise you to not reply to their contributions.



Jeez, now I'm getting banned for getting banned for getting banned for getting banned for getting banned for getting banned.
I thought you said I'd only get banned if I disregarded the mod notes!
EDIT: For getting banned for getting banned for getting banned...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Some people can’t take a hint.


----------



## Umbran

AlastortheExecutioner said:


> Jeez, now I'm getting banned for getting banned for getting banned for getting banned for getting banned for getting banned.
> I thought you said I'd only get banned if I disregarded the mod notes!
> EDIT: For getting banned for getting banned for getting banned...




*Mod Note:*

Yep.  Once you have had an account permanently banned, you, the person, are no longer welcome to post here.  Making alternate accounts to subvert a ban is not allowed.


----------



## Istbor

Cadence said:


> So, our local district started off with either having:  (a) 2 days on 3 virtual or (b) all 5 virtual.   Beginning November 12th they're hoping to have some of the grades (including the one directly impacting our family) go back to 5-day a week live.  This hinges on the state DHEC (Department of Health and Environmental Control) having our county rated low at the board meeting on the 27th this month, and staying there until it starts.
> 
> Luckily, our state health folks seem to be not being coerced into doing anything with the numbers (the governor just ignores them if he wants to do something else, and has foisted most things onto the municipalities for decision making) and our state numbers aren't horrific (rt.live has had us sub-1 since late June, and our new cases have been pretty steady since mid August (a bit under 1k/day) with deaths treanding down since July. The 35k University in town is down to 46 active cases (doing about 3k tests per week) from a peak of around 1400.
> 
> So, if we were New Zealand we'd have all been on total lockdown for a while... but at least we don't seem to be Wisconsin. My son isn't particularly amused about going back - but I'm not sure how much of that is worry and how much is the comfort of being home. (He's enjoyed going to scouts live the last two weeks - outside, or heavily ventilated garage, everyone in masks, <10 people).
> 
> Anyway, the D&D with his friends is staying on-line.
> Our FLGS has started opening three nights a week for MtG (limited seating, masks).  I've been in to buy, but am playing that online too.



I am a Wisconsinite and this cut me deep. 

Trying hard to keep my parents sticking to guidelines. I think the length of time is wearing on my father, not to mention more and more peer pressure to treating it like nothing too serious. 

A big reason I left the rural part of my state.


----------



## Cadence

Istbor said:


> I am a Wisconsinite and this cut me deep.



It's not your fault.  Y'all started spiking during our annual family vacation up there at end of July.
(Although the nine of us were masked when in town, had isolated pretty well before the trip, used curbside for groceries when we could, and were mostly in our cabins or the lake, maybe the virus took moral support from having some folks from higher infection areas?  That was my cousin's theory anyway).


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> Trying hard to keep my parents sticking to guidelines. I think the length of time is wearing on my father, not to mention more and more peer pressure to treating it like nothing too serious.




I don't envy you that.

"215,000 people are dead, Dad.  It is the third biggest killer in the country this year - heart disease, cancer, then covid-19.  Wear the damned mask."


----------



## Garthanos

Protonicmass said:


> It's just that getting a vaccine for the flu, the normal one, is a foolish decision.



Incorrect thousands of lives are saved and the flu is a heart traumatizer which has a significant impact on life spans. My brother died a month after having the flu of a heart attack he let the flu go on way to long without treatment and never had the vaccine but my anecdotes and others are naughty word. And the science stands.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> *Mod Note:*
> 
> Yep.  Once you have had an account permanently banned, you, the person, are no longer welcome to post here.  Making alternate accounts to subvert a ban is not allowed.



Thank you and Good riddance they were spreading dangerous bull pucky.

Language, please.


----------



## Garthanos

Garthanos said:


> No side effects here at all for any of my family or friends...



Oh I forgot the one side effect... not getting our system brutalized by the flu.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Garthanos said:


> Incorrect thousands of lives are saved and the flu is a heart traumatizer which has a significant impact on life spans. My brother died a month after having the flu of a heart attack he let the flu go on way to long without treatment and never had the vaccine but my anecdotes and others are naughty word. And the science stands.



One of my Dad’s patients- a 20-something derrick-worker in the Gulf of Mexico and all-around cool dude- got the seasonal flu.  His flu became pneumonia.  The virus then migrated to his heart, damaging it.

He died waiting for a heart transplant.

Edit: I should clarify, this happened in the 1980s, and I still miss this dude.  He was one of the coolest adults I knew back then.


----------



## MoonSong

Ralif Redhammer said:


> Got mine on Friday. The reaction...was not fun. Aches, chills, and and nausea. I was actually playing D&D when it hit and had to excuse myself and log off. Twenty minutes later, I was throwing up. So far, everyone I've talked to has mentioned that the side effects this year were particularly rough. I was fairly useless the next day, but the day after that I was fine and went for a nice long walk.



I felt like I was getting sick, -weakness, low pressure, headache and need to sleep- it could be a reaction to the vaccine, or perhaps that I had just had very little sleep in the previous days. (Again, finding it this year was an odyssey that ended up disrupting my sleep schedule.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Got my flu shot in May during lockdown. Got it in the garage next door to the health clinic. They set up a drive through. 






 One in at a time if they even allowed you through the door. 

 Played D&D tonight had the loudest and biggest group right beside me. Turnout was 30 over 5 groups. Owner said it's a better turn out than magic. 

 Bought this last week. 





 He charges $5 a head, player gets $2 store credit DM gets $3. Everyone turned up 5 players. 

 Basically get the books half price/free now. 

 Noisy but had a battle on a ghost ship that sunk once they killed the wight captain. 

 Fighter and Paladin almost managed to drag a cannon off the front of the ship. Made 2/3 of the required DC 25 rolls and failed the third roll by 1.


----------



## Imaculata

I've never had a flu shot in my entire life. I have always relied on my immune system to deal with it on its own. Perhaps I should get a shot this year, but the idea of visiting a hospital for it (a place with a lot of potential covid carriers) frightens me.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> I've never had a flu shot in my entire life. I have always relied on my immune system to deal with it on its own. Perhaps I should get a shot this year, but the idea of visiting a hospital for it (a place with a lot of potential covid carriers) frightens me.




 I'm not sure if I've ever had the flu. I've had heavy colds but not other flu symptoms so idk.


----------



## Janx

Imaculata said:


> I've never had a flu shot in my entire life. I have always relied on my immune system to deal with it on its own. Perhaps I should get a shot this year, but the idea of visiting a hospital for it (a place with a lot of potential covid carriers) frightens me.



They hand them out like candy at pharmacies and normal doctor's offices in Texas.  Where do you live that only a hospital can administer a flu shot?


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> I've never had a flu shot in my entire life. I have always relied on my immune system to deal with it on its own. Perhaps I should get a shot this year, but the idea of visiting a hospital for it (a place with a lot of potential covid carriers) frightens me.




In the US, you don't typically go to a hospital to get a flu vaccine.  The vaccine is offered at major drug stores (like Walgreens, CVS, etc) and your local doctor's office.


----------



## Janx

I waited 3 hours to vote yesterday. And of course the red shirt marine corp blowhard in front of us talked the whole time. And at one point he noted how everybody started spaced apart and by the end we much closer together, see how it's all a nothing.

That's the problem with stupid people. They see something and reach the wrong conclusion because they don't think deeper.

Humans are social creatures.  Left to their own devices they will form communities and bunch up. The fool assumed he was seeing a sign that the virus was no big deal.  Instead of knowing that the virus was a serious problem if humans got together in larger enough masses for long enough they'd bunch up and increase the chances of spreading.

So, hopefully we won't get it, but if I do, at least I negated that guy's vote.


----------



## Garthanos

Imaculata said:


> I've never had a flu shot in my entire life. I have always relied on my immune system to deal with it on its own. Perhaps I should get a shot this year, but the idea of visiting a hospital for it (a place with a lot of potential covid carriers) frightens me.



Got my shot outside a grocery store (they have a drug store)


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> I'm not sure if I've ever had the flu. I've had heavy colds but not other flu symptoms so idk.



In my 20s I thought I was literally going to die... it was horrific and not at all cold like. I usually get over things very quickly but sheesh.,  Most self diagnosed flu is actually mild food poisoning.


----------



## Eltab

I've never gotten a flu shot because I'm young and strong and indestructible - and other folks need it more than me.  Not bragging, I just expect that the corner drug store, chicken soup, and good sleep will keep me functional.
As I get older I can see that it is going to take more ... potent ... measures to keep me going, when I catch something.


----------



## billd91

Eltab said:


> I've never gotten a flu shot because I'm young and strong and indestructible - and other folks need it more than me.  Not bragging, I just expect that the corner drug store, chicken soup, and good sleep will keep me functional.
> As I get older I can see that it is going to take more ... potent ... measures to keep me going, when I catch something.



This is the attitude that makes it harder to control diseases and pandemics. *You* may be willing to just rely on your own health and immune system, but is there any consideration for the people around you that you could potentially infect? People who may have to rely on herd immunity because they are more vulnerable than you?


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> I'm not sure if I've ever had the flu. I've had heavy colds but not other flu symptoms so idk.




Me and the other half got the flu two years ago and it maimed the second half of a planned Christmas trip.   Nothing but lying in bed feeling like death warmed over for half a week. 

Part of it is that we visit a lot of older family on the trips too, so there's a second reason for getting one for us.


----------



## MoonSong

Eltab said:


> I've never gotten a flu shot because I'm young and strong and indestructible - and other folks need it more than me.  Not bragging, I just expect that the corner drug store, chicken soup, and good sleep will keep me functional.
> As I get older I can see that it is going to take more ... potent ... measures to keep me going, when I catch something.



Herd immunity is important. Some in my family are in vulnerable groups, so I vaccinate to keep them healthy. (I would probably vaccinate anyway since I have a history of respiratory disease. I used to have asthma-like attacks when I was younger)


----------



## Ryujin

Garthanos said:


> In my 20s I thought I was literally going to die... it was horrific and not at all cold like. I usually get over things very quickly but sheesh.,  Most self diagnosed flu is actually mild food poisoning.



Many years back I was diagnosed with the Texas "A" Strain Flu. (H3N2 apparently) It was 2 weeks of being stuck in bed, pretty much unable to take care of myself, with symptoms that I won't share out of respect for everyone's lunch. Definitely not fun and I didn't feel right again for more than a month. Flu can be very serious business.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

I'm not getting a flu vaccine this year. There's not really much of a reason to for my family. We've been staying home for months, almost never meeting with other people. The likelihood of us getting the flu this year is extremely unlikely, and even if we did, no one is overly vulnerable to the regular flu.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I'm not getting a flu vaccine this year. There's not really much of a reason to for my family. We've been staying home for months, almost never meeting with other people. The likelihood of us getting the flu this year is extremely unlikely, and even if we did, no one is overly vulnerable to the regular flu.




In terms of risk management, this is... not a wise way to think about it, either for your personal health, or the community at large.

The flu vaccine is cheap and safe.  Both the flu and covid are generally common and easy to catch.  And if you have one, the added risk to you from the other skyrockets.

Meanwhile, your current risk mitigation can be entirely breached by unforeseen circumstance, leaving you without any other defense.  But once you've gotten the flu vaccine, that protection is yours for the season, and cannot be taken away.

Layered defense is far superior.  Unless you are allergic, arguments that the flu vaccine isn't a good idea are hard to come by.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’m don‘t remember if I posted this before:








						A potentially overlooked factor in Sweden's coronavirus strategy: more than half of households consist of just 1 person
					

Crowded homes matter to coronavirus transmission, since they give the virus more opportunities to spread.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




Sweden has a secret weapon in the fight against C19 (and other diseases with similar spreading methods) hidden in their demographics: more than 50% of their households are single person.  That means average Swedes are functionally quarantining themselves @1/3 of the day, regardless of whatever other safety measures they are taking.


----------



## MarkB

Umbran said:


> In terms of risk management, this is... not a wise way to think about it, either for your personal health, or the community at large.
> 
> The flu vaccine is cheap and safe.  Both the flu and covid are generally common and easy to catch.  And if you have one, the added risk to you from the other skyrockets.
> 
> Meanwhile, your current risk mitigation can be entirely breached by unforeseen circumstance, leaving you without any other defense.  But once you've gotten the flu vaccine, that protection is yours for the season, and cannot be taken away.
> 
> Layered defense is far superior.  Unless you are allergic, arguments that the flu vaccine isn't a good idea are hard to come by.



I resemble that. I've been isolating since March, and intend to do so until the situation improves, but I did get my flu vaccine as a precaution.

And then a day later, I tripped and fell, badly bruising my arm, and had to go to hospital this week for a precautionary x-ray.

And then my shower broke down and I'll have a plumber in tomorrow morning to replace it.

Life throws curve balls, and there's no telling when something will happen that makes a mockery of all your preparations.


----------



## cmad1977

Umbran said:


> *Mod Note:*
> 
> It turns out that Protonicmass here was an alt account for someone banned from the boards several times over. They'll not be continuing in this discussion, or any others. We advise you to not reply to their contributions.




Haha. Someone must have been particularly lonely and sad to make up an alt account. 

Not sure how desperate for attention someone would have to be to go through all that effort but... thanks for cleaning up the riff raff.


----------



## ccs

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I'm not getting a flu vaccine this year. There's not really much of a reason to for my family. We've been staying home for months, almost never meeting with other people. The likelihood of us getting the flu this year is extremely unlikely, and even if we did, no one is overly vulnerable to the regular flu.




Well thats a foolish line of thinking.
I mean, at least one of you is venturing out to the grocery store....  guess what?  So's everyone else.  Even sick/unknowingly infected people.
All you need to do is come in contact with one & get unlucky.
Just wait until something around the house seriously breaks & you need a repairman.  Whats he bringing besides tools???
Ok, so you & yours aren't in much danger of actual death-by-flu if you do catch it.  But do you really want to lay about sick as dogs infecting each other?
Just go get your flu shot.


----------



## MarkB

ccs said:


> Well thats a foolish line of thinking.
> I mean, at least one of you is venturing out to the grocery store....  guess what?  So's everyone else.  Even sick/unknowingly infected people.
> All you need to do is come in contact with one & get unlucky.
> Just wait until something around the house seriously breaks & you need a repairman.  Whats he bringing besides tools???
> Ok, so you & yours aren't in much danger of actual death-by-flu if you do catch it.  But do you really want to lay about sick as dogs infecting each other?
> Just go get your flu shot.



Plus there's also the unlucky possibility of getting infected by the flu and COVID-19 simultaneously. I'm guessing that would be very much not a good time.


----------



## Umbran

Because it is sometimes hard to see the forest for the trees...

The following is a graph of the seven-day average of new cases per day in the US over time.  On this graph, Day 0 is roughly the beginning of March.  Day 60 is the beginning of May.  Day 120 is the beginning of July, and day 180 is the beginning of September.


----------



## Imaculata

A friend of mine just "recovered" from COVID, after six months of being extremely sick, being in the hospital, and lots of medication. She still isn't the same. Extreme exhaustion, sweating, and high heart rate for just walking a few steps. Terrifying.


----------



## Wishbone

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I'm not getting a flu vaccine this year. There's not really much of a reason to for my family. We've been staying home for months, almost never meeting with other people. The likelihood of us getting the flu this year is extremely unlikely, and even if we did, no one is overly vulnerable to the regular flu.




I got a flu shot because 1) it is extremely easy to get a flu shot in the US (its free at your local CVS), 2) I'd rather not get sick or get anyone else sick, and 3) the cost of having soreness in my arm for a few hours seems like an easy tradeoff to mitigate that risk. Hell, I got a few snacks while I was there too.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

I bought myself a big bag of candy corn while I was at it.



Wishbone said:


> I got a flu shot because 1) it is extremely easy to get a flu shot in the US (its free at your local CVS), 2) I'd rather not get sick or get anyone else sick, and 3) the cost of having soreness in my arm for a few hours seems like an easy tradeoff to mitigate that risk. Hell, I got a few snacks while I was there too.


----------



## Umbran

Ralif Redhammer said:


> I bought myself a big bag of candy corn while I was at it.




Because the pain of the shot wasn't enough to show Ralif Redhammer is tough!  He puts himself through... candy corn!


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> Because the pain of the shot wasn't enough to show Ralif Redhammer is tough!  He puts himself through... candy corn!



But I like candy corn.  Making orc and vampire teeth...

Also, did not get any candy when I got my flu shot.  Kinda bummed now.


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> But I like candy corn.




Good sir, in life we all have burdens we must bear.  This is yours.


----------



## MoonSong

Today my country reached over 85,000 official casualties. I'm almost sure neither of my grand uncles are accounted for. (Though there are also official estimates of over 96,000)

At the current rate, we could be reaching 100,000 official deaths by December. All of it in just 9 months.


----------



## Zardnaar

Interesting read. TLDR don't copy Sweden.









						The Swedish COVID-19 Response Is a Disaster. It Shouldn’t Be A Model for the Rest of the World
					

Sweden's unique approach to the pandemic has drawn interest from other countries. But the data are clear: it's largely been a failure.




					time.com


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Interesting read. TLDR don't copy Sweden.



Horrible isn't it. Sacrifice the elderly is NOT a civilized choice and 5 times as bad of death rate per capita as nearby countries of similar culture and population density  I looked into that a short while back


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Interesting read. TLDR don't copy Sweden.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Swedish COVID-19 Response Is a Disaster. It Shouldn’t Be A Model for the Rest of the World
> 
> 
> Sweden's unique approach to the pandemic has drawn interest from other countries. But the data are clear: it's largely been a failure.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> time.com



Thanks for posting that- it’s the article that prompted me to post the thing about their demographics.  I meant to post it as well, and just forgot.


----------



## Umbran

Flu shot acquired.  

Was rewarded by the universe with seeing this very nerdy vehicle in the parking lot.  Look closely at the Jeep logo...


----------



## Istbor

That person has my instant respect.


----------



## Umbran

Istbor said:


> That person has my instant respect.



I thought folks here would appreciate it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Flu shot acquired.
> 
> Was rewarded by the universe with seeing this very nerdy vehicle in the parking lot.  Look closely at the Jeep logo...
> 
> View attachment 127543




 I love this.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A 14yo girl in my area won $25k from 3M for developing a possible C19 treatment.








						Texas teen wins $25,000 for creating possible treatment for COVID-19
					

A 14-year-old Texas teen won $25,000 for creating a potential treatment for the coronavirus, according to 3M.




					www.ksat.com


----------



## Zardnaar

I won't go into any great detail but rewarded for Covid response. 









						Election 2020: Jacinda Ardern - 'We will be a party that governs for every New Zealander'
					

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern received a rapturous reception when she walked on stage at the Auckland Town Hall this evening, after New Zealand gave the Labour Party its greatest support in at least 50 years.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Landslide. I'll leave it there but yeah Covid was the big thing.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> I won't go into any great detail but rewarded for Covid response.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Election 2020: Jacinda Ardern - 'We will be a party that governs for every New Zealander'
> 
> 
> Labour leader Jacinda Ardern received a rapturous reception when she walked on stage at the Auckland Town Hall this evening, after New Zealand gave the Labour Party its greatest support in at least 50 years.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Landslide. I'll leave it there but yeah Covid was the big thing.



We may be heading a landslide for a sort of inverse reason apparently the guy who fired the pandemic response team, threw away their plan and tried like hell to defund the cdc, (functionally recalling scientists from other countries) even before subsequently pretending it wasn't so bad and politicizing response to it and pushing against the best practices may get a repercussion.  Of note our prior two high office holders a republican and a democrat actually improved our and the world's ability to respond to the pandemic.  Some of us at least hope that the guy who takes no responsibility will be held responsible.


----------



## Umbran

*Mod Note:*

Folks...

You remember that, a couple hundred pages back, some folks got banned from the thread, and got vacations from the site, over politics in this discussion?  If not, please consider yourselves reminded.  Thanks.


----------



## MoonSong

Well, good(¿?) news. Turns out my great uncle was actually accounted for. His test came positive a few days after the funeral. So, at least he is in the books I guess? 

I mean, it is one less grievance with the health ministry and their poor handling of this all. Just one...


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

MoonSong said:


> Well, good(¿?) news. Turns out my great uncle was actually accounted for. His test came positive a few days after the funeral. So, at least he is in the books I guess?
> 
> I mean, it is one less grievance with the health ministry and their poor handling of this all. Just one...



That's good for making sure all the deaths get counted, but I'm sorry he died.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

No one that I personally know has died of the coronavirus (yet), but my cousin's grandmother did die a few weeks back from this virus. Her son (my cousin's father) was (is?) an anti-masker and pushing for my county to open up since late April. I know it sounds awful, but I really hope that he learned something from this.


----------



## cbwjm

Another community transmission case in NZ, hoping it doesn't turn into another lockdown for us. Coronavirus: One new community case of Covid-19 in Auckland.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Another community transmission case in NZ, hoping it doesn't turn into another lockdown for us. Coronavirus: One new community case of Covid-19 in Auckland.




 I fully expect more cases. Hopefully they can nip it in the bud asap and avoid lockdowns.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> I fully expect more cases. Hopefully they can nip it in the bud asap and avoid lockdowns.



Hopefully. Close contacts are already isolated, just depends if he interacted with any people as he travelled between Napier and Auckland and if the places he did have co tact with are able to sterilise everything he may have been in contact with


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Hopefully. Close contacts are already isolated, just depends if he interacted with any people as he travelled between Napier and Auckland and if the places he did have co tact with are able to sterilise everything he may have been in contact with




 I think what will happen is where possible they will lock down individuals and families vs whole cities. 

 Crazies got throughout rejected last night as well. 

 Like it or not Auckland's fairly critical for the country. I would be more surprised if there's no further outbreaks. 

 Met my first person who knew someone with Covid. Our usual waitress is from the UK and her brother back home got it.


----------



## Imaculata

Update on my friend's condition: 

She used to love going hiking, but now she can't walk a few steps without being out of breath, her head being covered in sweat, and her heart going nuts. She's walking around with a heart monitor and getting medication. I asked her if she is noticing day to day improvements, but honestly, she's not. (Got to appreciate Dutch directness. If you ask a Dutch person how they are feeling, they will be brutally honest with you.)

Each day has its ups and downs, but there is not a feeling she is improving at all. She must have gotten it at her poorly ventilated office in Ireland, which still operates as if nothing is going on. At least she can work from home now. Meanwhile the office continues with the bare minimum of caution: some social distancing and screens between desks, but still poorly ventilated. So many of her colleagues have gotten sick too. I don't know if this is how most businesses in Ireland deal with this pandemic.


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> I think what will happen is where possible they will lock down individuals and families vs whole cities.
> 
> Crazies got throughout rejected last night as well.
> 
> Like it or not Auckland's fairly critical for the country. I would be more surprised if there's no further outbreaks.
> 
> Met my first person who knew someone with Covid. Our usual waitress is from the UK and her brother back home got it.



One of my cousins got Covid and while he didn't need to be hospitalized, is one of those unfortunates that has been having recurring effects for going on 5 months now.


----------



## Umbran

Sympathy for your friends and relatives.  Those things suck.

This is an aspect of it all that we don't really see the statistics for - we have cases and death as the headliners, but not much about instances of longer-term disability.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> I think what will happen is where possible they will lock down individuals and families vs whole cities.
> 
> Crazies got throughout rejected last night as well.
> 
> Like it or not Auckland's fairly critical for the country. I would be more surprised if there's no further outbreaks.
> 
> Met my first person who knew someone with Covid. Our usual waitress is from the UK and her brother back home got it.



That seems more likely, I think last update Bloomfield mentioned that they weren't considering lockdowns yet so that's good news. Hopefully this cluster is contained. 

I met anyone who's had someone affected by covid yet. The benefit of our fast lockdown i guess. So far no one has mentioned overseas relatives. Makes me wonder if this is why people don't believe in the pandemic, they don't know anyone affected by it so they don't think its real.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> That seems more likely, I think last update Bloomfield mentioned that they weren't considering lockdowns yet so that's good news. Hopefully this cluster is contained.
> 
> I met anyone who's had someone affected by covid yet. The benefit of our fast lockdown i guess. So far no one has mentioned overseas relatives. Makes me wonder if this is why people don't believe in the pandemic, they don't know anyone affected by it so they don't think its real.




 Back in March or April I looked at Italy and multiplied the numbers by ten. 

 Italy has a population of 60 million. 

 Even with the X10 number that's something like one in a thousand deaths. 

 It's where Peru is at. 

 So the odds are excellent the average person doesn't know anyone who died. 

 In USA maybe 2% confirmed to have it, I'm not sure what the exact number is right now as I stopped checking a while ago. 

 In NZ it functionally doesn't exist you hear about it in the media. Our waitress was the first person I met who personally knew anyone with it. And that's in the UK. 

 Media is all over it, I don't watch the news I just read Reuters/BBC and a few other sites like RNZ. Satellite dish got knocked a decade or so ago and we use internet all the time anyway. 

   So basically you don't see it, don't experience it and don't know anyone who has so it kind of falls into the category of starving children in Africa. You know it happens but you don't see it, experience it or know anyone who has. 

 That's going to vary by what country you are in of course.

 The rest is conspiracy type stupity online that is quite rare in real life. We've good 19000 morons here out of 5 million.


----------



## Mikeythorn

I hope this doesn’t stray into politics, but I thought this 4 minute interview was a great example of how to deal with Covid conspiracy theorists.

By way of context, the person being interviewed is a New Zealand politician who was thrown out of his (mainstream) party and so joined a pandemic denying, 5G fearing, anti-vacc political outfit instead (and which attracted the 19000 moron votes Zardnaar mentioned above).


----------



## Zardnaar

Mikeythorn said:


> I hope this doesn’t stray into politics, but I thought this 4 minute interview was a great example of how to deal with Covid conspiracy theorists.
> 
> By way of context, the person being interviewed is a New Zealand politician who was thrown out of his (mainstream) party and so joined a pandemic denying, 5G fearing, anti-vacc political outfit instead (and which attracted the 19000 moron votes Zardnaar mentioned above).




 Without looking Tova O'Brien.


----------



## Imaculata

Mikeythorn said:


> I hope this doesn’t stray into politics, but I thought this 4 minute interview was a great example of how to deal with Covid conspiracy theorists.



Wow, that guy is a massive creep. Makes my skin crawl. Good on that interviewer for holding his feet to the fire so much.

To quote one of the twitter replies:

_"It felt a little like an obituary with live quotes from the deceased."_


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mikeythorn said:


> I hope this doesn’t stray into politics, but I thought this 4 minute interview was a great example of how to deal with Covid conspiracy theorists.



OMG.

At times, I swear she was measuring him up to see if she could make a coat out of him as she lined up another swing with her rhetorical club.

Probably won’t change any minds, but that was a thing of beauty.

And I don’t think that style would work well in current day USA.  We’ve already got people wearing shirts suggesting the lynching of journalists.  A young, female journalist getting confrontational with an American analog of that fellow would just play into their narrative.


----------



## Zardnaar

I just got around to watching that interview not to long ago. 

 Ouch. 

 I read about it this morning but wife injured herself hospital etc. 

 Kia kaha!


----------



## Istbor

Mikeythorn said:


> I hope this doesn’t stray into politics, but I thought this 4 minute interview was a great example of how to deal with Covid conspiracy theorists.
> 
> By way of context, the person being interviewed is a New Zealand politician who was thrown out of his (mainstream) party and so joined a pandemic denying, 5G fearing, anti-vacc political outfit instead (and which attracted the 19000 moron votes Zardnaar mentioned above).



I wish that I could just 'take a rest' if the future of my entire career in my industry was suddenly washed. Must be nice to have that parachute.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And I don’t think that style would work well in current day USA.  We’ve already got people wearing shirts suggesting the lynching of journalists.  A young, female journalist getting confrontational with an American analog of that fellow would just play into their narrative.



The style wouldn't work in the US because the guy would just constantly interrupt the reporter, talk over her, and generally not allow her to speak.


----------



## Zardnaar

Deset Gled said:


> The style wouldn't work in the US because the guy would just constantly interrupt the reporter, talk over her, and generally not allow her to speak.




 Stop the interview and send them home. 

 They're the ones wanting access to the media.


----------



## CleverNickName

Looks like the numbers in the US are surging again.  We are already getting 50K+ new cases per day, give or take, just like we were the _last _time we had a surge in cases (July).  Texas is now the second-most infected state, and it's poised to be the first by the end of the week.

I wonder why we haven't heard anything about it.  What else could possibly be more important than thousands of people dying every day?


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> Looks like the numbers in the US are surging again.  We are already getting 50K+ new cases per day, give or take, just like we were the _last _time we had a surge in cases (July).  Texas is now the second-most infected state, and it's poised to be the first by the end of the week.
> 
> I wonder why we haven't heard anything about it.  What else could possibly be more important than thousands of people dying every day?




 Found out yesterday my friends in Houston her husband got Covid. He's all good, caught it off his sister. 

 Went to birthday event and someone didn't say they were sick otherwise they wouldn't have gone. 

 A lapse I suppose but they've been taking precautions since March and I suppose at some point you have to live your life.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Went to birthday event and someone didn't say they were sick otherwise they wouldn't have gone.




Depending on people to be honest and tell you if they are sick fails because:
1) People are often not honest.
2) Even when they are honest, they may not know they are sick to tell you.

So, this was not a wise move.



Zardnaar said:


> I suppose at some point you have to live your life.




Or die trying.  Or, perhaps worse, cause someone else to die because you just can't be bothered anymore.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

To be fair, though, perpetual vigilance is not realistic.  That’s why vaccines are the holy grail of prevention.

I may have mentioned before, my Dad had a C19 scare in his medical practice.  it happened due to people- himself included- getting a little too complacent.  Fortunately, everyone tested negative.

He’s an MD with an MPH.  His training is similar to Fauci’s.  He has drummed into me the dangers of respirator illnesses- and how to avoid them- since I was old enough to understand.

And he _still _got lax.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Stop the interview and send them home.
> 
> They're the ones wanting access to the media.



Some reporters here are starting to do exactly that.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Depending on people to be honest and tell you if they are sick fails because:
> 1) People are often not honest.
> 2) Even when they are honest, they may not know they are sick to tell you.
> 
> So, this was not a wise move.
> 
> 
> 
> Or die trying.  Or, perhaps worse, cause someone else to die because you just can't be bothered anymore.




 Well she said they made a mistake, they've got a 6 year old and she missed her birthday. 

 We did it for 7 weeks, they've been doing it 7 months. 

 They don't live in a great part of Houston and experienced looting in Katrina so 6 months locked up with guns (because of the looting experience) I suppose eventually you take a risk and get burned. 

 Rough neighborhood.

  They stayed in Maine for a bit but had to go home eventually.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> To be fair, though, perpetual vigilance is not realistic.




To be fair, in general we are doing such a craptastic job of it that the claim that we are vigilant at all, much less constantly, is verging on laughable.



Dannyalcatraz said:


> I may have mentioned before, my Dad had a C19 scare in his medical practice.  it happened due to people- himself included- getting a little too complacent.  Fortunately, everyone tested negative.
> 
> He’s an MD with an MPH.  His training is similar to Fauci’s.  He has drummed into me the dangers of respirator illnesses- and how to avoid them- since I was old enough to understand.
> 
> And he _still _got lax.




There's an interesting point here, in that I am sure that they have maintained constant vigilance on things like hygiene and sharps safety just fine.

But, leaving that aside, maintaining constant vigilance in an every day, day-after-day work context is different than the choice of whether to go to a one-time party event.  I may be wrong, but we can probably bet good money that folks weren't wearing masks or keeping distance at that party.  This makes it less a matter of having gotten lax at some point of procedure, and much more about making a willful choice to take a risk.

As has been said several times over in this thread - take that risk, and have it fail, and you are likely to kill someone.  Probably not yourself, but someone.  

Pardon me if I lack sympathy for the poor person who got covid while making a willful choice like that.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> To be fair, though, perpetual vigilance is not realistic.  That’s why vaccines are the holy grail of prevention.
> 
> I may have mentioned before, my Dad had a C19 scare in his medical practice.  it happened due to people- himself included- getting a little too complacent.  Fortunately, everyone tested negative.
> 
> He’s an MD with an MPH.  His training is similar to Fauci’s.  He has drummed into me the dangers of respirator illnesses- and how to avoid them- since I was old enough to understand.
> 
> And he _still _got lax.




To go back to an earlier discussion, this is the reason why I continue to promote the use of gaiters*.  While gaiters may not always be as good as other masks in all situations, they have the huge benefit that they can be integrated into life very easily.  People will take a mask off when they're alone and leave it behind; a gaiter stays with you.  When people get lax over time, we need solutions that can become second nature.  

See also: painted dots on the floor in checkout lines to show you what 6' looks like, easily accessible anti-bac stations, and parking lots designed for curb-side pickup.

*Obviously, I'm also a fan of gaiters that are multi layered, the correct material, etc.


----------



## Mallus

CleverNickName said:


> What else could possibly be more important than thousands of people dying every day?



Emails?


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> To be fair, in general we are doing such a craptastic job of it that the claim that we are vigilant at all, much less constantly, is verging on laughable.
> 
> 
> 
> There's an interesting point here, in that I am sure that they have maintained constant vigilance on things like hygiene and sharps safety just fine.
> 
> But, leaving that aside, maintaining constant vigilance in an every day, day-after-day work context is different than the choice of whether to go to a one-time party event.  I may be wrong, but we can probably bet good money that folks weren't wearing masks or keeping distance at that party.  This makes it less a matter of having gotten lax at some point of procedure, and much more about making a willful choice to take a risk.
> 
> As has been said several times over in this thread - take that risk, and have it fail, and you are likely to kill someone.  Probably not yourself, but someone.
> 
> Pardon me if I lack sympathy for the poor person who got covid while making a willful choice like that.




 Mind me asking what you do for a living and what your social circle of friends are?

 My friends in Houston are blue in a sea of red, ethnic minorities blue collar job where the majority of the clients for their small business are Afro American.

 Kids been home schooled since March, they live in nice house bad neighbourhood and have experienced looting before hence owning 3 guns and they're not gun rights fanatics. 

Their friends and family don't have white collar work from home jobs where they can have expanded bubbles with others who can live in expanded bubbles outside hotspots. 

 I've been joking they should move here since 2006 but it's not really viable even if they got a visa and we're willing to leave behind family and friends. 

 6 months of that and yeah. Even with the best of intentions I don't think you can be hyper vigilant 100% of the time. 

 They're not crazies just human.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Mind me asking what you do for a living and what your social circle of friends are?




I haven't been part of any extended bubbles.  I have had very little in-person social interaction in the past seven months.



Zardnaar said:


> They're not crazies just human.




I didn't say they were crazies.  I said that that seemed to have willfully chosen to take the risk - in a place where, by yoru description, they shoudl know the covid-rates were not good, and knew full well others present weren't and hadn't been following guidelines, and so I am not terribly sympathetic.  If you choose to jump in a pool that you can see is full of alligators, I am not going to extend much sympathy if you get bit.

If your job _requires_ you to have contact, I have tons of sympathy.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> I haven't been part of any extended bubbles.  I have had very little in-person social interaction in the past seven months.
> 
> 
> 
> I didn't say they were crazies.  I said that that seemed to have willfully chosen to take the risk - in a place where, by yoru description, they shoudl know the covid-rates were not good, and knew full well others present weren't and hadn't been following guidelines, and so I am not terribly sympathetic.  If you choose to jump in a pool that you can see is full of alligators, I am not going to extend much sympathy if you get bit.
> 
> If your job _requires_ you to have contact, I have tons of sympathy.




 It's easy to claim if you're privledge enough to live in a nice area or are in certain cultures. 

 Family is a big thing in some cultures and  if you live in an area were lootings and shootings are a thing I imagine it's harder to be perfect.

 I assume you're aware the virus had impacted non whites and low income suburbs harder?

 They're not poor as such but can't isolate in a nice house with all the amenities with similar neighbours.

 Gangs are a thing there so after 6 months you take a break and that's when things can go wrong.

 I'm guessing you haven't experienced looting and live in an area where you have a 2 metre fence and have dogs and guns for security because Murica?


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> I didn't say they were crazies.  I said that that seemed to have willfully chosen to take the risk - in a place where, by yoru description, they shoudl know the covid-rates were not good, and knew full well others present weren't and hadn't been following guidelines, and so I am not terribly sympathetic.  If you choose to jump in a pool that you can see is full of alligators, I am not going to extend much sympathy if you get bit.
> 
> If your job _requires_ you to have contact, I have tons of sympathy.




I know numerous people who have sent their kids back to school.  Some live in areas that don't support great remote options.  Some can't stay home with the kids full time.  Some have kids that are at a critical age for socialization and hands on learning, and they decided the risk of long term isolation during the formative years was a greater long term risk than COVID.  Some feel that sports are their kid's best chance at getting into a good college.

I don't agree with the choices of any of these parents.  I am upset that the world isn't taking the proper steps to end the pandemic, and these parents are part of the problem.  But I still have the capacity to feel for them if they get sick (or, god forbid, die).  Perhaps a bit of empathy on your part, rather than sympathy, would go a long way.


----------



## Cadence

It feels like its all degrees.

Do you decontaminate all of your packages you get and not get any carry out food? If not, you could be safer, right? (I mean, the risks are small, but not zero).

My son is going back to scouts - its outside or in a garage with a garage door and side door open and everyone masked, with 10 or fewer people. That more virus dangerous than keeping him home non-stop and less dangerous than having him go play unmasked at a bunch of friends houses (this is his first time with any friends here since March except for RC boating from opposite sides of a 30' pool, and one spaced out hike by the river in the summer).

With all three groups having isolated pretty well for months, this summer nine of us met on an annual family trip to a cabin. Our trio didn't go in any restaurants driving the 20 hours and slept in the car instead of a hotel. Thats more virus dangerous than seeing no one for nine months but less bad than having stopped along the way, or staying with anyone who hadn't been being cautious, or staying with a big group.

Assuming the party wasn't 25 people (or whatnot) crammed in a house all unmasked, I definitely feel bad for them after they'd been locked down for so long  :-(         And even if it was a stupidly big group being incautious, I assume we've all done something inane at some point in our lives, and most of us have been lucky enough not to die or be disabled from it.  On the other hand, the folks who regularly do it... at some point it is all on them  (and the easier life is for them otherwise, the sooner and more blame I give them).


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> It feels like its all degrees.
> 
> Do you decontaminate all of your packages you get and not get any carry out food? If not, you could be safer, right? (I mean, the risks are small, but not zero).
> 
> My son is going back to scouts - its outside or in a garage with a garage door and side door open and everyone masked, with 10 or fewer people. That more virus dangerous than keeping him home non-stop and less dangerous than having him go play unmasked at a bunch of friends houses (this is his first time with any friends here since March except for RC boating from opposite sides of a 30' pool, and one spaced out hike by the river in the summer).
> 
> With all three groups having isolated pretty well for months, this summer nine of us met on an annual family trip to a cabin. Our trio didn't go in any restaurants driving the 20 hours and slept in the car instead of a hotel. Thats more virus dangerous than seeing no one for nine months but less bad than having stopped along the way, or staying with anyone who hadn't been being cautious, or staying with a big group.
> 
> Assuming the party wasn't 25 people (or whatnot) crammed in a house all unmasked, I definitely feel bad for them after they'd been locked down for so long  :-(         And even if it was a stupidly big group being incautious, I assume we've all done something inane at some point in our lives, and most of us have been lucky enough not to die or be disabled from it.  On the other hand, the folks who regularly do it... at some point it is all on them  (and the easier life is for them otherwise, the sooner and more blame I give them).




 I've got another mate in California and he's running scouts doing something similar there out in the Sierra Nevadas. 

 He loves the outdoors, has been to NZ loves hiking etc. 

 Is it ideal probably not. He's taking precautions is it 100% safe? Probably not. 

 Even with the best intentions though eventually you gotta do something.


----------



## CleverNickName

Mallus said:


> Emails?



I know right?
Honestly at this point I don't know whether to laugh or cry.


----------



## Cadence

On the other hand, some people just aren't even trying at all...



			https://www.thestate.com/news/local/article246560473.html
		


I was hoping that the positivity rate on campus would stay vaguely low through Thanksgiving. (Granted a lot of these folks have probably already been skipping testing if they have mild symptoms).


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> OMG.
> 
> At times, I swear she was measuring him up to see if she could make a coat out of him as she lined up another swing with her rhetorical club.
> 
> Probably won’t change any minds, but that was a thing of beauty.
> 
> And I don’t think that style would work well in current day USA.  We’ve already got people wearing shirts suggesting the lynching of journalists.  A young, female journalist getting confrontational with an American analog of that fellow would just play into their narrative.



She did tear into his actions, better than political adversaries do in the US.


----------



## CleverNickName

Well the news here in my own country might be silent about the surge in Covid-19 cases, but at least the BBC is paying attention.
(TW: US Politics)








						Coronavirus: New Covid-19 cases rising rapidly across US
					

Cases are rising in 48 states, and infections hit about 70,000 for the first time since July.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> Well the news here in my own country might be silent about the surge in Covid-19 cases, but at least the BBC is paying attention.
> (TW: US Politics)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus: New Covid-19 cases rising rapidly across US
> 
> 
> Cases are rising in 48 states, and infections hit about 70,000 for the first time since July.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com




 Back in March I gave links to the BBC, Reuter, RNZ and the health department advice to some American friends. 

 One didn't know about Italy and then France. 

 She was a manager in USA aged care company. 

 BBC is usually reasonably good for free source.


----------



## Garthanos

stair steps to death


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> To be fair, in general we are doing such a craptastic job of it that the claim that we are vigilant at all, much less constantly, is verging on laughable.



Oh, abso-freakin-lutely!

Another data point to consider for those dealing with C19 deniers: our oven died after 22 years this weekend.  So we’ve been shopping for a new one the last few days, and we have found there is a shortage.  Of ALL brands, foreign and domestic.  C19-related manufacturing slowdowns are causing parts shortages and assembly line slowdowns.

The odds that _every_ appliance retailer, manufacturer, and/or their parts maker in the US market is conspiring to affect the election are so improbable that it isn’t even worth considering,


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Cadence said:


> On the other hand, some people just aren't even trying at all...
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.thestate.com/news/local/article246560473.html
> 
> 
> 
> I was hoping that the positivity rate on campus would stay vaguely low through Thanksgiving. (Granted a lot of these folks have probably already been skipping testing if they have mild symptoms).



I’ve been watching- and occasionally sharing- articles about campus life & C19.  I didn’t have high hopes...and I did’t go to a “party school”. 

Then I saw the bodycam footage of the student who was “quarantining “ after a positive test getting busted by the cops for hosting a house party in excess of the state’s group gathering size cap.


----------



## Garthanos

I live near a university and nope they might as well be labeled COVID19 hot spot they pull these young people in from all over and pack them in buildings together  then they wander down town in clusters without masks.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Oh, abso-freakin-lutely!
> 
> Another data point to consider for those dealing with C19 deniers: our oven died after 22 years this weekend.  So we’ve been shopping for a new one the last few days, and we have found there is a shortage.  Of ALL brands, foreign and domestic.  C19-related manufacturing slowdowns are causing parts shortages and assembly line slowdowns.
> 
> The odds that _every_ appliance retailer, manufacturer, and/or their parts maker in the US market is conspiring to affect the election are so improbable that it isn’t even worth considering,




 Fake news and/or your oven is a deep fake. 

 To prove otherwise send a sample of your delicious.........

 This stuff predates the internet, as a kid there was a book named Chariot of the Gods. Basically Aliens built everything.

 It's people who are smart enough to think but not smart enough to say I don't know or academics who don't know either and don't want to admit it so they make something up and later on they get challenged and it's a conspiracy about aliens/who built what etc. 

 Kinda the origins of this kinda stuff fueled by social media these days.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> This stuff predates the internet, as a kid there was a book named Chariot of the Gods. Basically Aliens built everything.
> 
> It's people who are smart enough to think but not smart enough to say I don't know or academics who don't know either and don't want to admit it so they make something up and later on they get challenged and it's a conspiracy about aliens/who built what etc.




There is an racist element to it as well.  Because... note that all the structures claimed to be made by aliens... are not European*.  If you aren't white, you obviously couldn't have built it yourself.  You needed alien help.


*Stonehenge being the one exception - folks still say aliens built that.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> There is an racist element to it as well.  Because... note that all the structures claimed to be made by aliens... are not European*.  If you aren't white, you obviously couldn't have built it yourself.  You needed alien help.
> 
> 
> *Stonehenge being the one exception - folks still say aliens built that.




 That as well, Amazon has a show called Archeo. They had Great Zimbabwe featured. 

 Turns out it was plugged into trading networks and they've found Chinese/Indian/Egyptian goods there so they were likely trading gold for luxuries via Kilwa and Zanzibar. 

 Lake Titicaca, Teotihuacan, Nazca lines and a few other places as well.

 Also all on Archeo. Good show.

 Gotta be aliens!!


----------



## Garthanos

We even have instructions on pyramids and adjacent buildings describing how they made pyramids including wetting of the sand the blocks were slid on, sorry no aliens required just smart ancestors being given the credit they are due.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> We even have instructions on pyramids and adjacent buildings describing how they made pyramids including wetting of the sand the blocks were slid on, sorry no aliens required just smart ancestors being given the credit they are due.




 A lot if early archeologists were more plunderers. 
. And they usually zeroed in on what would have been the CBD in ancient times. It's where all the monuments are I suppose and big civic buildings. 

 They're also not engineers and have no idea what stone weighs. 

 Some of those "200 ton" blocks are a lot lighter and could be moved with ancient cranes or muscle power.

 Great grandad's book on Spanish Flu useful today. People just stop using skills due to invention.


----------



## cbwjm

Garthanos said:


> We even have instructions on pyramids and adjacent buildings describing how they made pyramids including wetting of the sand the blocks were slid on, sorry no aliens required just smart ancestors being given the credit they are due.



Not only that, but if aliens came and gave us instructions on how to build pyramids, why did they give us the wrong information which led to the bent pyramid. Seems like a space faring civilisation wouldn't make such a basic mistake.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Not only that, but if aliens came and gave us instructions on how to build pyramids, why did they give us the wrong information which led to the bent pyramid. Seems like a space faring civilisation wouldn't make such a basic mistake.




 Fake news pyramid is perfectly straight. Deep fakes. 

5G betrayed the Pharoah.


----------



## Umbran

cbwjm said:


> Seems like a space faring civilisation wouldn't make such a basic mistake.




1) Loads of people don't follow the directions.

2) "Hahahaha!  Lookit the silly primates, doin' it wrong!  Aren't they funny?"


----------



## MarkB

Umbran said:


> 1) Loads of people don't follow the directions.
> 
> 2) "Hahahaha!  Lookit the silly primates, doin' it wrong!  Aren't they funny?"



3) Alien aesthetics. Maybe they like the occasional bent pyramid to offset the uniformity.


----------



## Umbran

MarkB said:


> 3) Alien aesthetics. Maybe they like the occasional bent pyramid to offset the uniformity.



Or, more generally,

3) Who said they all had to be straight?


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> Or, more generally,
> 
> 3) Who said they all had to be straight?




... said Bortus.


----------



## Umbran

Bortus has one of the best character arcs.


----------



## MoonSong

All this talk of stuff reminded me of the widower who started doing megalithic building as a hobby. He managed to do a lot of stuff by himself using only the most basics of tools.


----------



## MoonSong

Deset Gled said:


> To go back to an earlier discussion, this is the reason why I continue to promote the use of gaiters*.  While gaiters may not always be as good as other masks in all situations, they have the huge benefit that they can be integrated into life very easily.  People will take a mask off when they're alone and leave it behind; a gaiter stays with you.  When people get lax over time, we need solutions that can become second nature.
> 
> See also: painted dots on the floor in checkout lines to show you what 6' looks like, easily accessible anti-bac stations, and parking lots designed for curb-side pickup.
> 
> *Obviously, I'm also a fan of gaiters that are multi layered, the correct material, etc.



This, I love scarves. I have lots of them. If I tie one behind my neck it stays in place for hours.  However I feel safer with a mask, and my city/country has a warm weather almost year round, so a scarf or gaiter would be very impractical at anytime but winter. Besides with mask usage as low as it is, I need all protection I can muster. However it looks like an option for colder places.


----------



## Umbran

MoonSong said:


> This, I love scarves. I have lots of them. If I tie one behind my neck it stays in place for hours.  However I feel safer with a mask, and my city/country has a warm weather almost year round, so a scarf or gaiter would be very impractical at anytime but winter. Besides with mask usage as low as it is, I need all protection I can muster. However it looks like an option for colder places.



Most scarves are not woven/knitted tightly enough to stop the relevant droplets, I'm afraid.  This is the same argument against most gaiters - they don't serve the purpose.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> All this talk of stuff reminded me of the widower who started doing megalithic building as a hobby. He managed to do a lot of stuff by himself using only the most basics of tools.




I've seen that or something similar to it. He just uses leveridge, balance points and swivels to manipulate 25 ton blocks by himself. 

 A lot of very intelligent people have got no idea about how things work in the real world. Doesn't been they're stupid just outside their specialty they're no better than anyone else. 

 Worked in a farm 20+ years ago. Most people got no practical idea how food is produced and distributed. 

 I have no idea how to fix an internal combustion engine.


----------



## MarkB

Zardnaar said:


> I've seen that or something similar to it. He just uses leveridge, balance points and swivels to manipulate 25 ton blocks by himself.
> 
> A lot of very intelligent people have got no idea about how things work in the real world. Doesn't been they're stupid just outside their specialty they're no better than anyone else.



Reminds me of an old (possibly apocryphal) story of the scientists who came up with ridiculous calculations of the amount of calories kangaroos must need to consume in order to hop around everywhere. They based their working on a simple calculation of how much energy would be required to lift a mass equal to that of an adult kangaroo up to their average bounce height, multiplied by their observed number of bounces within a specified period.

All very neat, but totally failing to take into account that kangaroos' legs operate as the equivalent of leaf-springs, storing up most of that energy on the downward arc to be re-used in the next upward bound.


----------



## Zardnaar

MarkB said:


> Reminds me of an old (possibly apocryphal) story of the scientists who came up with ridiculous calculations of the amount of calories kangaroos must need to consume in order to hop around everywhere. They based their working on a simple calculation of how much energy would be required to lift a mass equal to that of an adult kangaroo up to their average bounce height, multiplied by their observed number of bounces within a specified period.
> 
> All very neat, but totally failing to take into account that kangaroos' legs operate as the equivalent of leaf-springs, storing up most of that energy on the downward arc to be re-used in the next upward bound.




 My favorite one is Romans couldn't lift these large blocks in top of pedestals. They weighed 25-50 tons. 

 Then they found pictures of Romans using cranes and for the larger blocks three cranes.

 Or when they built a road in Morocco, the Engineer was proud of himself then they found a Ronan inscription basically saying "U Marcus .... built this road" and they built the modern road over the ancient Roman one.

 They've recent found Roman ruins deep in Saudi Arabia, the border at one point was deep into Nabatea. 

 Basically they make conclusions on incomplete information.


----------



## cbwjm

One of my favourite things is that since the invention of writing* people have been leaving graffiti about how awesome they are, or insults about their least favourite gladiators. Shows us that people haven't really changed all that much over millennia; ancient peoples would have been tweeting if they had the technology.

*Or maybe since the invention of cave paintings.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> One of my favourite things is that since the invention of writing* people have been leaving graffiti about how awesome they are, or insults about their least favourite gladiators. Shows us that people haven't really changed all that much over millennia; ancient peoples would have been tweeting if they had the technology.
> 
> *Or maybe since the invention of cave paintings.




 It's basically saying "I was here". 

 Prostitute in Pompeii cost about the same as a loaf of bread. Thanks to graffiti.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> I've seen that or something similar to it. He just uses leveridge, balance points and swivels to manipulate 25 ton blocks by himself.
> 
> A lot of very intelligent people have got no idea about how things work in the real world. Doesn't been they're stupid just outside their specialty they're no better than anyone else.
> 
> Worked in a farm 20+ years ago. Most people got no practical idea how food is produced and distributed.
> 
> I have no idea how to fix an internal combustion engine.



On one hand we have the people saying that only aliens could have helped ancient cultures build megalithic structures.

On the other hand we've got a little guy who built the Coral Castle by himself and some random dude who demonstrates to the Mythbusters build team how to lift such blocks by rocking them back and forth, with his body weight, and using shims to raise them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> On one hand we have the people saying that only aliens could have helped ancient cultures build megalithic structures.
> 
> On the other hand we've got a little guy who built the Coral Castle by himself and some random dude who demonstrates to the Mythbusters build team how to lift such blocks by rocking them back and forth, with his body weight, and using shims to raise them.




 Aliens!!!

 It's like the pyramids. Can humans cut a block of stone the size of the pyramids? Yes. 
 Anything beyond that is just a question of logistics and organization.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> It's basically saying "I was here".
> 
> Prostitute in Pompeii cost about the same as a loaf of bread. Thanks to graffiti.



Those were home made bread loaves hand mixed and kneaded and so on not these factory made loaves


----------



## Janx

Zardnaar said:


> Aliens!!!
> 
> It's like the pyramids. Can humans cut a block of stone the size of the pyramids? Yes.
> Anything beyond that is just a question of logistics and organization.



Add a cup of racism to the mix as the narrative of "had to be aliens" was really a function of "us white people don't know how to make a pyramid without our technology so the brown people must've had alien help."


----------



## Ryujin

Janx said:


> Add a cup of racism to the mix as the narrative of "had to be aliens" was really a function of "us white people don't know how to make a pyramid without our technology so the brown people must've had alien help."



There's admittedly a fair bit to that but there's also a lot of, "We couldn't do it in a week without a steam shovel, so no one could do it ever" going on. People today can't think in terms of generational projects, because they're stuck on the instant gratification thing. There seems to be a fair bit of evidence that sites like Stonehenge were created in sort of layers; growing outward as time went on. Hell, for some of the "Aliens!" comments you'd think they believed Rome built their roads and aqueducts over a weekend, by getting the Emperor's buddies together over beer & BBQ.


----------



## MoonSong

Ryujin said:


> Hell, for some of the "Aliens!" comments you'd think they believed Rome built their roads and aqueducts over a weekend, by getting the Emperor's buddies together over beer & BBQ.



Ironically, this could have been how Stonehenge was built.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

MoonSong said:


> Ironically, this could have been how Stonehenge was built.



I just had a vision of some semi-drunk, grunting Romans stacking the stones with excessive use of power and modified simple machines as a tall Scotsman peeks over Hadrian’s Wall* giving the Gaelic equivalent of “Howdy, neighbor!”





* yes, I know it’s not anywhere near, but...


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I just had a vision of some semi-drunk, grunting Romans stacking the stones with excessive use of power and modified simple machines as a tall Scotsman peeks over Hadrian’s Wall* giving the Gaelic equivalent of “Howdy, neighbor!”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> * yes, I know it’s not anywhere near, but...



Two Scotsmen quietly taking bets with each other how long before one of the stones falls over and if some guy tries to catch it before it hits the ground.


----------



## Eltab

Hmm, the Space Aliens really loved the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere, but wouldn't touch Europe or North America.  Its like they were a bunch of snobs, or they didn't appreciate the possibilities for Winter Olympic sports during the Ice Age.  Such close-minded folks.


----------



## Eltab

Garthanos said:


> I live near a university and nope they might as well be labeled COVID19 hot spot they pull these young people in from all over and pack them in buildings together  then they wander down town in clusters without masks.



Family member away at college - the students _are_ being kept on campus - reports a roommate, on the swim team, was part of a contact trace of somebody else (another swimmer?  I'm not sure) who might have got it.  "We'll get back to you when their test comes back."  Nobody in the room gets any sleep that night of course.  Next day news returns: test was negative, go on with your life.  Nothing like an emotional yo-yo to go along with midterms.

The school administration just was handed on a silver platter the motivation to find out how long Coronaviruses can survive in chlorinated water.  All they have to do is organize the study and dip a few gallons out of the pool.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mouthwash could 'inactivate' human coronaviruses that cause infections like the common cold
					

Certain mouthwashes can break the membrane of coronaviruses, rendering them inactive. But scientists say more research is still needed.




					www.yahoo.com
				




In a followup study inspired by prior research, it looks like certain mouthwashes may inactivate coronaviruses in the mouth and throat.  C19 was *NOT *part of the test, but the researchers noted that all coronaviruses have very similar membranes- the very structure the mouthwashes compromise, and by doing so, inactivate the coronaviruses.  Once the viruses get past the mouth/throat, mouthwashes would be ineffective.

While they said that more research is needed, the researchers indicated that use of these products is a low-risk prophylactic against infection.


----------



## Maxperson

cbwjm said:


> Not only that, but if aliens came and gave us instructions on how to build pyramids, why did they give us the wrong information which led to the bent pyramid. Seems like a space faring civilisation wouldn't make such a basic mistake.



I don't know.  You should see some of the stuff I end up with after following Ikea instructions.  That pyramid could have been user error and not the alien's fault.


----------



## Zardnaar

Bent pyramid was bent by Gou'Ald mothership don't you guys know anything?


----------



## briggart

Janx said:


> Add a cup of racism to the mix as the narrative of "had to be aliens" was really a function of "us white people don't know how to make a pyramid without our technology so the brown people must've had alien help."



There's a bit more than that. The three pyramids at Giza are among the first being built. We know of several (10-15?) later pyramids which are all smaller and/or collapsed, which fit the narrative of "aliens came, help us build the pyramids, left, and we were never able to build something like that on our own".


----------



## briggart

Eltab said:


> Two Scotsmen quietly taking bets with each other how long before one of the stones falls over and if some guy tries to catch it before it hits the ground.



"Let's build an henge or two."

Edit: NSFW
Edit2: Fixed link. Doh!
Edit3: Funny vid, but not grandma friendly.


----------



## Zardnaar

Here we go again?









						Infectious Covid-19 case visited Auckland pub on Friday night - ARPHS
					

People who visited a Greenhithe pub last week are being asked to self-isolate and get tested for Covid-19 after an infected person went there.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Umbran

briggart said:


> There's a bit more than that. The three pyramids at Giza are among the first being built. We know of several (10-15?) later pyramids which are all smaller and/or collapsed, which fit the narrative of "aliens came, help us build the pyramids, left, and we were never able to build something like that on our own".




And, if thre's one thing we _fail_ to successfully teach, it is that, "fits the narrative," is not, "evidence."


----------



## Garthanos

briggart said:


> There's a bit more than that. The three pyramids at Giza are among the first being built.



"Among the first" -? Poppy poo we have a world wide progression of smaller pyramids building up to and improving on the ones before the biggest ones


----------



## MoonSong

Garthanos said:


> "Among the first" -? Poppy poo we have a world wide progression of smaller pyramids building up to and improving on the ones before the biggest ones



Well, not exactly. The progression was from mastabas (sorry I don't know the exact name in English), to layered mastabas to step pyramids, to the malformed pyramid to the true pyramids. (which includes the Giza pyramids) Then, after the fourth pyramid -not in Giza- they couldn't gather enough resources to build that big again, but smaller pyramids kept being build during the old kingdom and in Nubia. Then they stopped because there are more advanced architectonic techniques that allow for other kind of high-rise structures while being less material-intensive.


----------



## Umbran

MoonSong said:


> Well, not exactly. The progression was from mastabas (sorry I don't know the exact name in English)




There isn't a separate English word for them, iirc.

And, before all the pyramids were the ziggurats of Mesopotamia.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Here we go again?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Infectious Covid-19 case visited Auckland pub on Friday night - ARPHS
> 
> 
> People who visited a Greenhithe pub last week are being asked to self-isolate and get tested for Covid-19 after an infected person went there.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz



We seem to be in a two steps forward, one step back situation with this pandemic.


----------



## Deset Gled

cbwjm said:


> We seem to be in a two steps forward, one step back situation with this pandemic.



That's probably frustrating for you.  But it's a darn enviable problem to have from those of us in the US.  We seem to have the number of steps reversed.


----------



## briggart

Garthanos said:


> "Among the first" -? Poppy poo we have a world wide progression of smaller pyramids building up to and improving on the ones before the biggest ones



I understood the comment I was replying to as referring to the Egyptian pyramids. Clearly depending on what kind of structure we consider pyramids, there are definitely older examples. But as @MoonSong pointed out, you can clearly see the increased understanding and innovations that allowed to move from mastabas to the Giza pyramid in the 150 years or so at the end of the Third Dynasty/beginning of Fourth Dynasty. Most other structures considered today as pyramid-like are younger than the Giza pyramid, the most notable exception are the ziggurats. But I think most of those older than the Giza pyramids are either smaller or in significantly worse state, so again the Giza pyramids stand out (to me) as an amazing feat of engineering. I mean they were the tallest artificial structure for 4000 years or so.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> And, before all the pyramids were the ziggurats of Mesopotamia.



But then, ziggurats were found to be hazardous to people’s health...


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> We seem to be in a two steps forward, one step back situation with this pandemic.




 Oh well see what happens. Hopefully no more lockdowns.


----------



## cbwjm

Deset Gled said:


> That's probably frustrating for you.  But it's a darn enviable problem to have from those of us in the US.  We seem to have the number of steps reversed.



Half of the people in the US seem to be walking in the opposite direction.


----------



## Garthanos

cbwjm said:


> Half of the people in the US seem to be walking in the opposite direction.



30 percent


----------



## cbwjm

Garthanos said:


> 30 percent



While that is better than 50%, 30% of the population ignoring the pandemic is still a crazy high number


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> While that is better than 50%, 30% of the population ignoring the pandemic is still a crazy high number




Did you not know that?

Europe's brewing up again. Idiocracy in some places, arrogance and complacency in other eg " we've got the best health care in the world".


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Did you not know that?
> 
> Europe's brewing up again. Idiocracy in some places, arrogance and complacency in other eg " we've got the best health care in the world".



I knew there was a large number, hard to hide from what's happening in the states at the moment.


----------



## MarkB

cbwjm said:


> Half of the people in the US seem to be walking in the opposite direction.



And in the UK we seem to be struggling to decide which direction is 'forward'.


----------



## Zardnaar

Subscribed to Washington Post for a month just to see if anything interesting happens in USA early November. 

 Start clicking on links.









						Trump Accuses New Zealand’s Prime Minister of Competently Handling the Coronavirus to Get Reëlected
					

Trump called Jacinda Ardern’s use of public-health measures to mitigate the pandemic’s impact “a sleazy political move like you wouldn’t believe.”




					www.newyorker.com
				




 Satire btw. #nzhellhole.


----------



## Umbran

In the City of Boston, public schools opened for students one month ago.  As of today, they are going back to all remote classes.


----------



## billd91

One of the schools in the county north of mine has had to go all virtual *twice* since the start of the school year. Considering what I know of the area (I grew up not too far away), I'm not really surprised.


----------



## CleverNickName

It seems like most of the people here in the United States just got tired of it and simply _decided_ the pandemic was over.

Except it isn't over.  The virus doesn't care about how bored or frustrated you are with it.  It doesn't care about how many weeks you've had to spend indoors with your children, and it doesn't care about the economy or the election either.  It's still out there, still spreading, still killing people, and we still don't have a vaccine....and grown adults are acting like petulant children over the bare minimum precautions like "stay home" and "wear a mask."


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Not “most”, just a sizable minority, too many of whom are in positions that amplify their utterances.


----------



## CleverNickName

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not “most”, just a sizable minority, too many of whom are in positions that amplify their utterances.



Yeah, I know.  It just _seems _like most.

Of course, the virus doesn't care about the majority either.  It only needs a handful of bad actors to spread, and even 1% is far more than enough (especially when they are spread out across such a large area, and largely unchecked, untracked, and untested.)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FWIW, I was reading about similar anti-public health measures in the past.  I was, of course, familiar with the parallels between our current situation and the 1918 flu.

Today, I learned that similar behavior occurred while the world was ramping up its fight against *SMALLPOX*.









						Covid-19 anti-vaxxers use century-old arguments | CNN
					

As we get closer to an effective vaccine for Covid-19, we should expect to see a renewed push of disinformation and vocal resistance from the anti-vaccination movement.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

CleverNickName said:


> Yeah, I know.  It just _seems _like most.
> 
> Of course, the virus doesn't care about the majority either.  It only needs a handful of bad actors to spread, and even 1% is far more than enough (especially when they are spread out across such a large area, and largely unchecked, untracked, and untested.)



You forgot unapologetically unconcerned.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> FWIW, I was reading about similar anti-public health measures in the past.  I was, of course, familiar with the parallels between our current situation and the 1918 flu.
> 
> Today, I learned that similar behavior occurred while the world was ramping up its fight against *SMALLPOX*.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19 anti-vaxxers use century-old arguments | CNN
> 
> 
> As we get closer to an effective vaccine for Covid-19, we should expect to see a renewed push of disinformation and vocal resistance from the anti-vaccination movement.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com




To be fair, when the smallpox vaccine was created germ theory was still in it's infancy.  Heck, homeopathy was once legitimately considered as an alternative to germ theory.  Lots of details like sterilization, preservative chemicals, and proper storage were still being worked out; getting a vaccine was a bit riskier than it is today.

Nowadays, people are a lot more educated and have access to much better scientific resources.  I mean, it's not like there are still companies selling "homeopathic medicine" based off of science that was proved wrong 150 years ago, right?


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> Nowadays, people are a lot more educated and have access to much better scientific resources.  I mean, it's not like there are still companies selling "homeopathic medicine" based off of science that was proved wrong 150 years ago, right?




_snrk_.  Okay, that's funny.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Satire btw. #nzhellhole.



So many things which you would expect to be satire these days are so not distant from a truth.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Deset Gled said:


> Nowadays, people are a lot more educated and have access to much better scientific resources. I mean, it's not like there are still companies selling "homeopathic medicine" based off of science that was proved wrong 150 years ago, right?



Sometimes, less is more, right?   

I can't believe that homeopathy is still a thing.


----------



## Garthanos

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Sometimes, less is more, right?
> I can't believe that homeopathy is still a thing.



The us government finally decided they cannot make claims of efficacy in advertisements....


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> To be fair, when the smallpox vaccine was created germ theory was still in it's infancy.  Heck, homeopathy was once legitimately considered as an alternative to germ theory.  Lots of details like sterilization, preservative chemicals, and proper storage were still being worked out; getting a vaccine was a bit riskier than it is today.
> 
> Nowadays, people are a lot more educated and have access to much better scientific resources.  I mean, it's not like there are still companies selling "homeopathic medicine" based off of science that was proved wrong 150 years ago, right?



Did you catch the part where one of the most vocal and visible antivax activists at the time *had been vaccinated for smallpox*?


> Published by a leading anti-vaccinationist, Dr. Alexander M. Ross, this pamphlet was widely circulated during the smallpox epidemic of 1885 in Montréal, as public health officials were seeking to increase vaccination coverage.
> Ross seized on the opportunity of increased health measures to gain authority, notoriety and personal fame. He painted himself the hero of his own story, the "only doctor; who had dared to doubt the fetish" of vaccination. Despite this, it was discovered that he had been recently vaccinated during the epidemic, a fact that was gleefully reported by the major newspapers at the time.



The STONES on that guy!


----------



## briggart

At least this happened.




I think they have since removed the tweet (this was back in March).


----------



## Zardnaar

Each flag represents Covid victim USA.





__





						Live Webcam | Multivista Construction Documentation
					





					webcampub.multivista.com


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Did you catch the part where one of the most vocal and visible antivax activists at the time *had been vaccinated for smallpox*?



Parents saner than themselves...


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> Parents saner than themselves...



No.  He'd been vaccinated not as a child by his parents, but at age 53, _during a smallpox epidemic_ in which he'd been arguing against vaccination!


----------



## Zardnaar

Be interesting to see what others think. Communication seems key. 

 This clip is pointing out we've become a bit complacent once alert levels get lowered. 

 More including it because the start of it has shop windows where QR codes are displayed and it's day to day operations. 


 I read alot of news but don't generally watch the news mostly because we haven't had a TV reception last decade or so and use the internet for everything line that.

 It's 4 minutes I suppose you could contrast it with home. Saw some CNN last week at father in law's as he still watches normal TV.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Well...

Because of literal technical difficulties, we won’t be following through on our holiday food distribution plan.  We probably won’t be able to get replacement appliances until sometime in December, so my ability to cook stuff in big batches is somewhat impaired until further notice.

In addition, Dad just got off the phone a few minutes ago: one of his employees has lost her sense of smell and tested positive on a preliminary quick test.  So he’s making up and initiating self-quarantine.  I was just in his office 2 days ago, so I may be following suit, even though I wasn’t anywhere near the employee in question.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well...
> 
> Because of literal technical difficulties, we won’t be following through on our holiday food distribution plan.




That's crummy.  It sounded like you were looking forward to it.



Dannyalcatraz said:


> I was just in his office 2 days ago, so I may be following suit, even though I wasn’t anywhere near the employee in question.



That's even crummier.  Take care of yourself, dude!


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> No.  He'd been vaccinated not as a child by his parents, but at age 53, _during a smallpox epidemic_ in which he'd been arguing against vaccination!



Wow that is funny levels of hypocrisy indeed.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> Wow that is funny levels of hypocrisy indeed.




By today's standards?  Pshaw!  He wasn't even hardly trying!


----------



## Thomas Shey

CleverNickName said:


> It seems like most of the people here in the United States just got tired of it and simply _decided_ the pandemic was over.
> 
> Except it isn't over.  The virus doesn't care about how bored or frustrated you are with it.  It doesn't care about how many weeks you've had to spend indoors with your children, and it doesn't care about the economy or the election either.  It's still out there, still spreading, still killing people, and we still don't have a vaccine....and grown adults are acting like petulant children over the bare minimum precautions like "stay home" and "wear a mask."




This is the inherent problem with the fact modern medicine has managed to make serious aerosol spread illnesses virtually a thing of the past for more than half a century (and you can argue a century); there's no cultural understanding of what an epidemic really means, and how seriously you need to take it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> This is the inherent problem with the fact modern medicine has managed to make serious aerosol spread illnesses virtually a thing of the past for more than half a century (and you can argue a century); there's no cultural understanding of what an epidemic really means, and how seriously you need to take it.




 Outside Asia anyway. Europeans got a bit complacent imho since they have the "best health care systems in the world".

 On other forums posters from Argentina and Switzerland are saying they're getting surges there is 

 Hearing about Spain etc on the news other nations not so much.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> Outside Asia anyway. Europeans got a bit complacent imho since they have the "best health care systems in the world".




Fair enough.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> That's crummy.  It sounded like you were looking forward to it.
> 
> 
> That's even crummier.  Take care of yourself, dude!



Yeah.  I love to cook for people.  That‘s why we have pots up to 30qts in this house!

Basically, as far as my plans go, Halloween is cancelled.  Thanksgiving is cancelled.  Christmas may be cancelled, depending on a variety of factors.

And not just for our gifting plans, either.  Besides the turkey, several of the dishes I cook this time of year depend on using the oven.  ESPECIALLY the bread puddings I make to give to the neighbors.  I have other appliances that I can bake in, but I don’t know that they’re built to handle the AMOUNT of cooking I’d be wanting to do.  I definitely don’t need to start a house fire by overworking a tabletop cooking device.

Still, as a low point for the year, it’s pretty much just a dip, relatively speaking.  Hopefully, this is as bad as it gets for us.


----------



## MoonSong

Speaking of food, there's something that keeps bothering me. Specially after I went to get some supplies today. You see, every other product is now labeled with black stickers that warn "this has too much sugar", "this has too much sodium" and so on. Normally I wouldn't really mind them being there, (Though I worry they have already lost their kick since they are everywhere), what bothers me is why they are there. You see, the official narrative about having so many deaths is not that this is a deadly virus that we have failed to control, with next to no testing and negligible contact tracing, extreme triage in our underfunded and now undersupplied public hospitals -they basically reject anybody under 60 until they get so sick that there's nothing to do, basically people are checked in just to die-, data manipulation to justify premature reopenings of different states, and lack of a national mandate for wearing facemasks -and low usage of them, let alone correct usage-.

No it is nothing of the sort, instead this is a mild virus that is killing everybody because we eat and drink so much sugars and fats, so obviously we need to warn the people no to eat these things and nobody else will die! These black stickers are saving everybody's lives! /s 

In short, they are scapegoating food for the failure to have a proper and opportune response to the pandemic and they are wasting precious money and time on black stickers that don't even have the desired effect just to show they are doing something.


----------



## CleverNickName

MoonSong said:


> In short, they are scapegoating food for the failure to have a proper and opportune response to the pandemic and they are wasting precious money and time on black stickers that don't even have the desired effect just to show they are doing something.



Sounds like they are scapegoating you, for not eating the proper diet and buying the proper products and etc.  You failed to take care of yourself, you see, and therefore you are liable for any and all consequences.  Ugh.


----------



## Garthanos

Being overweight is way far down on the normal correlations to a shortened life span ... even the amount of blaming most people do by calling being overweight unhealthy is perhaps exaggerating a statistically small element compared to do you have friends and even are you one who interacts with strangers or even do you get the flu vaccine. So my thought is be careful about societies "health craze" that is less driven by real science than those exploiting standards of beauty than most people think. The typical health consequences seem less than people think. That its danger is exaggerated by COVID19 is one of those situational ugh's.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Being overweight is way far down on the normal correlations to a shortened life span ... even the amount of blaming most people do by calling being overweight unhealthy is perhaps exaggerating a statistically small element compared to do you have friends and even are you one who interacts with strangers or even do you get the flu vaccine. So my thought is be careful about societies "health craze" that is less driven by real science than those exploiting standards of beauty than most people think. The typical health consequences seem less than people think. That its danger is exaggerated by COVID19 is one of those situational ugh's.




If same thing happened here a week 
orv two ago. 

  Some Americanisms turned up during election campaign and weigh came up subcontract it's your fault if you're fat. 

 The two leaders however as re a bit portly themselves and it went over like a wet fart. 

 USA news subscribed to Washington Post. Europe more using BBC. 

 Can't explain it put it that way.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mom & I were finally able to get our flu shots today.  We had to wait for the “over 65“ serum to be back in stock for her.  The pharmacist on duty gave a damn good shot, too...and I let her know.  People in jobs like that too rarely get complemented on their hard-earned skills.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> USA news subscribed to Washington Post. Europe more using BBC.
> 
> Can't explain it put it that way.



American Fan of BBC here, but the key is don't get stuck on any single source.  
 /just saying


----------



## Cadence

Garthanos said:


> American Fan of BBC here, but the key is don't get stuck on any single source.
> /just saying




Right now I use BBC world service on satellite radio and the google news aggregator.

I wish there was an easy way to toggle between usual google news and a version justing using the sources in the upper green box of Home - Ad Fontes Media


----------



## Garthanos

Cadence said:


> Right now I use BBC world service on satellite radio and the google news aggregator.
> 
> I wish there was an easy way to toggle between usual google news and a version justing using the sources in the upper green box of Home - Ad Fontes Media



Indeed my favorites are all in there NYT, Forbes, BBC, PBS, CNN (web) with the Hill/Politico somewhat.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> American Fan of BBC here, but the key is don't get stuck on any single source.
> /just saying




 BBC is fairly good. I use them, Reuters, sometimes Al Jazeera for ME stuff, couple of local sites for NZ stuff. 

 Washington Post useful for political stuff like polling in certain states which we don't really get here. I'll watch CNN at father in law's place.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> BBC is fairly good. I use them, Reuters, sometimes Al Jazeera for ME stuff, couple of local sites for NZ stuff.
> 
> Washington Post useful for political stuff like polling in certain states which we don't really get here. I'll watch CNN at father in law's place.



538 usually has some good polling things if you haven't checked it out before.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> 538 usually has some good polling things if you haven't checked it out before.




 I'm familiar with it. I don't check it but others often reference it or put it in articles so I get it indirectly I suppose.


----------



## Zardnaar

Four Months of lockdown. 0 cases 0 deaths. 

 Well done Aussie. Melbourne is a big city as well, 5 million people 112 days of lockdown.









						Victoria records no new coronavirus cases for first time in more than four months
					

Victoria records zero new cases of coronavirus in the past 24 hours and zero deaths, as Melburnians prepare for a significant easing of restrictions from Wednesday.




					www.abc.net.au
				




 First place to drive it down that low with that many cases. Lockdowns expensive but Tasmania (75 days 0 cases) is performing the best out of the Aussie states.

 3.6 cases 14 day average in Melbourne, 0.2 in Victoria.

7 cases of unknown origin.


----------



## MoonSong

This morning, the local authorities finally recognized they have been undercounting deaths, and thus that there are 50k additional deaths by Covid.  So, we are at 130k+ deaths so far. Now, actually including these in the official records seems to be a whole different affair.


----------



## Garthanos

MoonSong said:


> This morning, the local authorities finally recognized they have been undercounting deaths, and thus that there are 50k additional deaths by Covid.  So, we are at 130k+ deaths so far. Now, actually including these in the official records seems to be a whole different affair.



Possibly the best estimate is the difference between actual and expected deaths (which does not usually massively vary from year to year and can be tuned based other things)


----------



## Eltab

Update on an old side-thread:
I have student loans which have been in Forebearance since the lockdowns.  I have been making payments anyway.  Since I can redirect the money however I like, everything went to the smallest loan.  This day I received the "Paid In Full" letter for that loan.

One down two to go.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Update on an old side-thread:
> I have student loans which have been in Forebearance since the lockdowns.  I have been making payments anyway.  Since I can redirect the money however I like, everything went to the smallest loan.  This day I received the "Paid In Full" letter for that loan.
> 
> One down two to go.




That's cool!  Way to go!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> Update on an old side-thread:
> I have student loans which have been in Forebearance since the lockdowns.  I have been making payments anyway.  Since I can redirect the money however I like, everything went to the smallest loan.  This day I received the "Paid In Full" letter for that loan.
> 
> One down two to go.



Bravo!


----------



## ssvegeta555

Eltab said:


> Update on an old side-thread:
> I have student loans which have been in Forebearance since the lockdowns. I have been making payments anyway. Since I can redirect the money however I like, everything went to the smallest loan. This day I received the "Paid In Full" letter for that loan.
> 
> One down two to go.




Congrats! Keep at it, wipe those off the face of the Earth.  I did the same with my loans, just aggressively dumping money into them, even more so during the pandemic. Highest interest loan getting the bulk with only minimum payments on the rest. Just paid off all my students in full last month. I'm glad that stuff is behind me now. Huge sigh of relief. About the only good thing that happened in 2020 for me lol


----------



## Zardnaar

Home Covid test. During lockdown I bought 2 weeks worth of booze 3 times one week!!!!


----------



## Zardnaar

Do not come here under any circumstances.

#nzhellhole. 









						'Terrifying new response': US host's bizarre take on Kiwi Covid strategy
					

Fox News host shared an old Jacinda Ardern clip and spoke of 'quarantine camps'.




					www.nzherald.co.nz
				



 Avoid at all costs.


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> Do not come here under any circumstances.
> 
> #nzhellhole.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'Terrifying new response': US host's bizarre take on Kiwi Covid strategy
> 
> 
> Fox News host shared an old Jacinda Ardern clip and spoke of 'quarantine camps'.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nzherald.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Avoid at all costs.



I guess that depends. Is the Capital of Rohan still there?


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Do not come here under any circumstances.
> 
> #nzhellhole.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'Terrifying new response': US host's bizarre take on Kiwi Covid strategy
> 
> 
> Fox News host shared an old Jacinda Ardern clip and spoke of 'quarantine camps'.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nzherald.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Avoid at all costs.



Give my family a place to bunk AND quarantine for a couple of weeks while I send resumes


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Do not come here under any circumstances.
> 
> #nzhellhole.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'Terrifying new response': US host's bizarre take on Kiwi Covid strategy
> 
> 
> Fox News host shared an old Jacinda Ardern clip and spoke of 'quarantine camps'.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nzherald.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Avoid at all costs.



"... television host in the US has spread misinformation about New Zealand's response to the Covid-19 pandemic..."

Don't take this too personally.  Television hosts here spread misinformation about everything.  LIke, they'll argue poodles aren't dogs if it'll get them screen time.


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> Do not come here under any circumstances.
> 
> #nzhellhole.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'Terrifying new response': US host's bizarre take on Kiwi Covid strategy
> 
> 
> Fox News host shared an old Jacinda Ardern clip and spoke of 'quarantine camps'.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nzherald.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Avoid at all costs.



You should invite her down for a guided tour.


----------



## Garthanos

That particular station is by the way an "entertainment" / rightwing propaganda outlet that calls itself a news station. Then argues in court that their listeners cannot sue them over harmful misinformation because they should not be expecting accuracy.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Garthanos said:


> That particular station is by the way an "entertainment" / rightwing propaganda outlet that calls itself a news station. Then argues in court that their listeners cannot sue them over harmful misinformation because they should not be expecting accuracy.




I believe technically they've only made that argument about their opinion programming.  Of course the line they draw between that and their news programming is sometimes, shall we say, rather fine.


----------



## Ryujin

Thomas Shey said:


> I believe technically they've only made that argument about their opinion programming.  Of course the line they draw between that and their news programming is sometimes, shall we say, rather fine.



It was stated in a specific judgment, with respect to what weight should be given to Tucker Carlson ("none"), over his commentary. When you lie enough that a judge states on the record that no one should believe anything that you say, you've got issues.

His latest statements, regarding certain documents that they've been touting heavily over the last couple of weeks, are right up there with, "The dog ate my homework."


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> That particular station is by the way an "entertainment" / rightwing propaganda outlet that calls itself a news station. Then argues in court that their listeners cannot sue them over harmful misinformation because they should not be expecting accuracy.




 I know.


----------



## billd91

Ryujin said:


> It was stated in a specific judgment, with respect to what weight should be given to Tucker Carlson ("none"), over his commentary. When you lie enough that a judge states on the record that no one should believe anything that you say, you've got issues.



Maybe? But that's not going to matter to the Fox viewers. They'll still eat it up and it'll still, effectively, brainwash the viewers. And that's their goal. It's not to "inform". It's to produce a public oriented to their viewpoints. It's doesn't matter if they use the truth to do it or not.


----------



## Ryujin

billd91 said:


> Maybe? But that's not going to matter to the Fox viewers. They'll still eat it up and it'll still, effectively, brainwash the viewers. And that's their goal. It's not to "inform". It's to produce a public oriented to their viewpoints. It's doesn't matter if they use the truth to do it or not.



Of course. It feeds into their conspiracy theory laden minds' confirmation bias.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> It was stated in a specific judgment, with respect to what weight should be given to Tucker Carlson ("none"), over his commentary. When you lie enough that a judge states on the record that no one should believe anything that you say, you've got issues.
> 
> His latest statements, regarding certain documents that they've been touting heavily over the last couple of weeks, are right up there with, "The dog ate my homework."




Which supports what I said, no?  Carlson is one of their commentators, not part of the news division proper.  The issue is, of course, that when you have a large and extremely slanted commentator group that interacts with the news division, the line gets super muddy (and that's over and above what goes on with the way the news division chooses to present what it does).


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> His latest statements, regarding certain documents ...




Are not covid-19 related, so, can we please leave them outside?  Thanks.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Are not covid-19 related, so, can we please leave them outside?  Thanks.



I didn't go into any depth on them for precisely that reason.


----------



## Istbor

Ugh. Come home state... catch the drift that COVID-19 is still a thing. 

Daily cases rising pretty high here atm.


----------



## CleverNickName

Yeah, we added 91,530 new cases of Covid-19 in the U.S. _yesterday alone.  _We added more cases in a single day than we did in almost the entire first quarter of year 2020.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Yeah, my state (Washington) has generally been following the trend of the whole US, having increases of cases in both of the first two US waves. Now, at the start of the "third" wave (in reality, we never finished either of the first two), our cases are rising yet again:




__





						washington covid cases - Google Search
					





					www.google.com
				








__





						us covid cases - Google Search
					





					www.google.com
				




By these two graphs, we've been doing pretty well in comparison to most of the rest of the country, but definitely have failed to control it when compared to most European countries, New Zealand, and so on (it is also difficult to get control of a pandemic if you don't have the support of the president, if legislature isn't passed to help mitigate the spread when it's needed, and when there aren't travel restrictions between states, etc).


----------



## Garthanos

50 percent of those tested today in my county were positive ....


----------



## Hussar

The worst part about that whole NZ hellhole thing is I've seen people, people who I thought were pretty smart and thoughtful actually buying the stories.  It's mind boggling.  When did expertise become so discredited?

I mean, I have a buddy who just sent me a masking is bad for you propaganda piece.  Very well made, lots of backup research and all that.  Gotta give mad props for that.  But, on one hand we've got every doctor on the frigging planet, whose job it is to keep people healthy, telling us to put on the damn mask and wear it and on the other hand, there's this guy, no medical training at all, just a decent sense of film making and access to Google Scholar.  Why in hell do people continuously fall for this?  It's so frustrating - it's like people aren't even speaking the same language anymore.

Mask Facts - The Model Health Showthemodelhealthshow.com


----------



## CleverNickName

Just use a mask, people.
It's not like they're asking you to use THAC0 rules.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Hussar said:


> The worst part about that whole NZ hellhole thing is I've seen people, people who I thought were pretty smart and thoughtful actually buying the stories.  It's mind boggling.  When did expertise become so discredited?




When people began associating it with "ivory tower elites".  There's been elements in many places that have been downgrading science for some time now.  As I saw a post reference on FB earlier today "Everyone likes what science gives them; but nobody likes that it keeps asking questions."



Hussar said:


> I mean, I have a buddy who just sent me a masking is bad for you propaganda piece.  Very well made, lots of backup research and all that.  Gotta give mad props for that.  But, on one hand we've got every doctor on the frigging planet, whose job it is to keep people healthy, telling us to put on the damn mask and wear it and on the other hand, there's this guy, no medical training at all, just a decent sense of film making and access to Google Scholar.  Why in hell do people continuously fall for this?  It's so frustrating - it's like people aren't even speaking the same language anymore.




When something feeds into people's biases, its much easier for them to get on board.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> There's been elements in many places that have been downgrading science for some time now.




There has been a strong streak of anti-intellectualism in the US since at least the 1700s.  Our immigrant ancestors were generally not the educated sort, you know.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> There has been a strong streak of anti-intellectualism in the US since at least the 1700s.  Our immigrant ancestors were generally not the educated sort, you know.



Especially due to the strong Christian/Protestant origins of the US.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> There has been a strong streak of anti-intellectualism in the US since at least the 1700s.  Our immigrant ancestors were generally not the educated sort, you know.




Yeah, but it had been quite some time since it was quite so--formalized--as its been in the last couple decades.  I write it off to the conclusions of scientific consensus becoming quite as inconvenient to certain financial and social interests as they have.


----------



## Hussar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Especially due to the strong Christian/Protestant origins of the US.



That's not particularly fair.  Some of the greatest thinkers in history have been Christian and/or closely tied to various churches.  

But, yeah, we've gone in the 20th and now 21st century, from "Science will fix everything" to "Science doesn't know nothing".  It's rather frightening.  

I see it with my students.  My Japanese students will proudly tell me every time a Japanese person wins a Nobel prize.  It's front page news.  They are very pro-science here.  Which leaves them utterly bemused by Western reactions.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Especially due to the strong Christian/Protestant origins of the US.



That's.. an over-simplification. 

But, after typing an answer, I recognize how far afield from the subject of the pandemic the discussion gets if I elucidate.  So, I won't


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Hussar said:


> That's not particularly fair. Some of the greatest thinkers in history have been Christian and/or closely tied to various churches.



Oh, definitely. I'm not saying Christianity and science are incompatible by any means. And definitely not all aspects of it. Copernicus worked closely with the Catholic Church, who supported his discoveries. 


Umbran said:


> That's.. an over-simplification.
> 
> But, after typing an answer, I recognize how far afield from the subject of the pandemic the discussion gets if I elucidate.  So, I won't



Yes, sorry. Didn't mean to derail things or oversimplify it. There is a complex history between the two, and I merely meant that as a generality. I should have been more clear. Back on topic, though.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Especially due to the strong Christian/Protestant origins of the US.




 Not really the protestants were heavily involved in university's etc. Anglican church iirc owned them. 

 Literacy was also quite high in the UK. 

 NZ, Aussie similar immigrants Canada as well.

 I have some theories, we got more Scots proportionally for example and the Scottish enlightenment was a thing.


----------



## Garthanos

The first US penny had the motto "Liberty parent of science and industry"


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Especially due to the strong Christian/Protestant origins of the US.



The Puritans of Massachusetts started a college as soon as they had teens old enough to attend.

I know the Virginia colony took longer than that - but then again the colony started off as a 'get rich quick' effort and almost starved themselves out.


----------



## Eltab

Called it: the virus is spreading in communities that do not take orders from anybody.

(This should be a link)
foxnews.com/us/antifa-coronavirus-portland-popsicle-party-report
Short version in case the link fails:
Protesters in Portland OR were exposed to Corona by a group supplying food.  Nobody involved thinks they should quarantine themselves, "wear a mask" is sufficient.


----------



## briggart

Eltab said:


> Called it: the virus is spreading in communities that do not take orders from anybody.
> 
> (This should be a link)
> foxnews.com/us/antifa-coronavirus-portland-popsicle-party-report
> Short version in case the link fails:
> Protesters in Portland OR were exposed to Corona by a group supplying food.  Nobody involved thinks they should quarantine themselves, "wear a mask" is sufficient.



Actually, from the same link you posted:

"The twitter account said that they are both quarantining and urged those who participated in the events to “wear ya damn mask” and get tested for COVID-19."

So both people affected are quarantining. The issue is that they were handling food the day before they tested positive, so they are urging people who received food the previous day to make sure to wear a mask and get tested. That doesn't strike me as "no need to quarantine".


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Update: Dad’s second test came back negative.  Two potential exposures, two bullets dodged.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Update: Dad’s second test came back negative.  Two potential exposures, two bullets dodged.



That's good news.


----------



## Eltab

briggart said:


> So both people affected are quarantining. The issue is that they were handling food the day before they tested positive, so they are urging people who received food the previous day to make sure to wear a mask and get tested. That doesn't strike me as "no need to quarantine".



More than two people are affected - the rest of the attendees at Resistdance were exposed.  No peer pressure to stay out of circulation until each person can find out for certain, one way or the other.  "Wear a mask" is being treated as if doing so confers both personal and group immunity.

And - to my larger point - if OR declares a blanket lockdown, will state police be sending the protesters home?


----------



## CleverNickName

I live in Portland Oregon...downtown, about 9 blocks from the courthouse and Justice Center.   So I feel I should tell you something:  any link with "fox" in the URL should be taken with an immense grain of salt.


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> I live in Portland Oregon...downtown, about 9 blocks from the courthouse and Justice Center.   So I feel I should tell you something:  any link with "fox" in the URL should be taken with an immense grain of salt.




 Barely qualifies as infotainment. 

 Australia seems to have eliminated it. 3 month lock down in Melbourne. Melbourne has 4 or 5 million people. 






 UK into 4 week lockdown.


----------



## Garthanos

CleverNickName said:


> I live in Portland Oregon...downtown, about 9 blocks from the courthouse and Justice Center.   So I feel I should tell you something:  any link with "fox" in the URL should be taken with an immense grain of salt.



yup they have been pointed out earlier in thread as not qualifying as much better than a rumor mill (I will admit rare exception situations)


----------



## Zardnaar

Somewhat interesting economic data. 

 NZ not doing great economically but better than a lot of places. Tourism's hit hard. 

Locally though barely effected. 









						Dunedin bucks benefit trend
					

The number of New Zealanders accessing benefits during the September 2020 quarter is showing a marked increase on last year, but Dunedin and the Southern region appear to be bucking the trend.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 No Covid since around May and dodged lockdown 2.0 for the most part. 

  Primary industries University, port. 

 Arguements coming out of Europe about the economy seem to be stupid. If people don't want to go out/losing jobs it's not gonna matter to much if stuff stays open.

  Stop/start lockdowns idk but it took Aussie 3 months of lockdowns to wipe it out in a big city. Spread there due to a lot of screw ups in qurantine process.


----------



## MarkB

England going into lockdown, just as Wales emerges from theirs. Feels like the government finally giving in to the inevitable given how cases have been rising. Can't help feeling it'd have been a lot more effective if they'd pulled their finger out and actually coordinated a lockdown strategy with Scotland and Wales.

Covid-19: English lockdown may last beyond 2 Dec, says Gove


----------



## Deset Gled

For those of you in the US, we included some COVID pumpkins in our socially distanced Halloween display this year. Note how the masked pumpkin is happy, but the unmasked pumpkin is sick/dead.


----------



## Bagpuss

Haven't played face to face since the national lockdown in March. Moved online and have been playing using Roll20. Actually gaming more now than before the lockdown as I am running an additional game for friends from work.

Considering another national lockdown has started I don't see us playing face to face for the foreseeable future, being realistic I doubt it will be before spring next year or the vaccine is available.

Legally the area I'm in went into Tier 3 before the national lock down, I think there was one weekend where we could have met under the (stupid pointless) rule of six, before the Tier 3 restrictions meant we couldn't.

So far as a Player we have been doing Curse of the Crimson Throne using Pathfinder, the GM isn't as up to speed with Roll20 as I am, doesn't use many macros, hasn't put NPCs/Monsters in a proper linked tokens, but manages just rolling the dice and adding the modifiers he has on the book in front of him. Works okay if not as smooth as having everything ready.

Me on the other hand...

I've run Lost Mine of Phandelver (5E D&D), for the new group, the Lightless Beacon (CoC), and Sunless Citadel and Forge of Fury (5E D&D) for my existing group, using modules that were available for free. Modules are great as they have a lot of stuff already done for you, but it is still worth watching some Youtube tutorials and sorting out some macros of your own to speed stuff up.

I then converted The Vanishing Conjurer for Call of Cthulhu 7th Ed, for my new group, might run it for my old group when we stop Curse of the Crimson Throne for a bit. Here's the Corkboard towards the end of the scenario.





I'm currently setting up my existing Pendragon Campaign, and the new CoC Children of Fear scenario, ready to run them at some point. I think the range of games Roll20 supports is what keeps me with it, I'm certain other Virtual Tabletops are probably better if you are just focused on 5E, but I know Roll20 now and it has character sheets for a load of games where as other VTs are more limited.


----------



## Nilbog

Yep as we move into another national lockdown I've come to the realisation that it'll be 8 months at best before we can game face to face. 

I'm trying to get my pf2e campaign up and running in foundry, but I can't decide if I'd be better off starting from scratch as it's been such a long time since we played it. Either way I need to get something ready as I think our current DM is due a break. I find prepping online games a lot more arduous than the normal stuff, it feels like you have to have far more stuff ready in advance whereas face to face it was easier to wing it


----------



## Bagpuss

Nilbog said:


> I find prepping online games a lot more arduous than the normal stuff, it feels like you have to have far more stuff ready in advance whereas face to face it was easier to wing it




Yeah if your use to just being able to open an NPC/Monster sheet or click on a macro to do attacks, it becomes a pain if you haven't already got that critter available, so you need to do stuff manually. Worse if you need to load a token in first as well.

The more you create the more you have available (at least so long as you can import and export between your games), but from games with a rapid levelling mechanic like D&D/Pathfinder, monsters you've prepared at level 1 aren't much good against a level 5 party, and a useless when they get double figures. Flatter games like CoC, you can keep reusing Cultists, Deep Ones and the like.


----------



## Azuresun

MarkB said:


> England going into lockdown, just as Wales emerges from theirs. Feels like the government finally giving in to the inevitable given how cases have been rising. Can't help feeling it'd have been a lot more effective if they'd pulled their finger out and actually coordinated a lockdown strategy with Scotland and Wales.
> 
> Covid-19: English lockdown may last beyond 2 Dec, says Gove




The actual _scientists_ were telling them to do this a month and a half earlier, but Johnson ridiculed the idea. Schools and universities (where the virus is spreading fastest) stay open, because why the hell not?

In the UK, it's probably vaccine or nothing, people just can't behave themselves.


----------



## Bagpuss

Azuresun said:


> In the UK, it's probably vaccine or nothing, people just can't behave themselves.




Might help if they had some clear guidance, rather than a series of half measures, and a government that ignores it's own guidance.


----------



## Azuresun

Bagpuss said:


> Might help if they had some clear guidance, rather than a series of half measures, and a government that ignores it's own guidance.




I kind of despair of _everyone_ at this point. You don't need detailed government guidelines to know that "throw a street party the night before restrictions increase" is a dumb idea, but the government handling has indeed been deeply inept, lurching between inactivity and confusing, exception-riddled guidelines based on a strategy of "don't do anything that might make us unpopular until it becomes unavoidable (and some other European country has already done it)". Heck, a month and a half ago, Johnson was mocking the opposition leader for calling for a lockdown across the school half-term, which would have been much less disruptive than what's coming up.


----------



## MarkB

Azuresun said:


> I kind of despair of _everyone_ at this point. You don't need detailed government guidelines to know that "throw a street party the night before restrictions increase" is a dumb idea, but the government handling has indeed been deeply inept, lurching between inactivity and confusing, exception-riddled guidelines based on a strategy of "don't do anything that might make us unpopular until it becomes unavoidable (and some other European country has already done it)". Heck, a month and a half ago, Johnson was mocking the opposition leader for calling for a lockdown across the school half-term, which would have been much less disruptive than what's coming up.



What's scary is that he keeps pushing the message of "if we can get through this you'll all be able to see your friends and families at Christmas" even as the situation worsens. I fear that whatever good may be done this month through the lockdown will be thoroughly undone next month.


----------



## Azuresun

MarkB said:


> What's scary is that he keeps pushing the message of "if we can get through this you'll all be able to see your friends and families at Christmas" even as the situation worsens. I fear that whatever good may be done this month through the lockdown will be thoroughly undone next month.




Yeah, we're basically doomed to be treading water until a vaccine comes along.

Funny tangent--I read _Danse Macabre_ recently, Stephen King's non-fiction book about the horror genre, and I remember that either he or somebody he was quoting described horror as "a force that destroys the bonds between people". And that  really sums up this virus, doesn't it?


----------



## Janx

Azuresun said:


> Yeah, we're basically doomed to be treading water until a vaccine comes along.
> 
> Funny tangent--I read _Danse Macabre_ recently, Stephen King's non-fiction book about the horror genre, and I remember that either he or somebody he was quoting described horror as "a force that destroys the bonds between people". And that  really sums up this virus, doesn't it?



I thought he was describing the Great Divider.


----------



## Eltab

Bagpuss said:


> Might help if they had some clear guidance, rather than a series of half measures, and a government that ignores it's own guidance.



And if Officialdom had a goal "kill the germs".  
One EnWorlder a while back had a thread about things to do "while Corona prowls the streets" which pithily describes the messed-up situation actually created.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Bagpuss said:


> Yeah if your use to just being able to open an NPC/Monster sheet or click on a macro to do attacks, it becomes a pain if you haven't already got that critter available, so you need to do stuff manually. Worse if you need to load a token in first as well.
> 
> The more you create the more you have available (at least so long as you can import and export between your games), but from games with a rapid levelling mechanic like D&D/Pathfinder, monsters you've prepared at level 1 aren't much good against a level 5 party, and a useless when they get double figures. Flatter games like CoC, you can keep reusing Cultists, Deep Ones and the like.




This is why you get a wide variety of attitudes about how hard prep is on VTT; if, like me, you just use the VTT for maps and tokens (and keep a bunch of those pre-available) you have a lot less overhead than if you have to have virtual sheets, macros and what-all.


----------



## Cadence

The dashboard for the University will show someone in our not-too-far off part of the building at work as a positive case next week.  :-/

Wishing well for their family, and hoping that the time I was in an adjacent room last week wasn't long enough for it to spread.


----------



## Zardnaar

American expat over here. 

 Some erm swearing.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Poop.


----------



## Eltab

There was a similar story about mink farms in Utah, about a month ago.
At least the mink can't just go running all over the landscape.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Poop.




 They knew about the links back in April. 

 Fur farming?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yup.

But from what I understand, it takes a while to confirm or establish a strong possibility that a strain of a virus found in animals can jump to other animals, including humans.


----------



## Janx

Zardnaar said:


> They knew about the links back in April.
> 
> Fur farming?



Based on Danny's pic, if I was a rich snob, I would only want top shelf minks used for my furred products.  Steering wheel covers, coats, underwear, etc.  Why would I settle for mink fur that's been peed/pooped on by the upper levels?


----------



## Hussar

Apropos of nothing, just the mink thing got me remembering.

My grandmother was quite ill for a long time and then got better.  ((Long, involved story, that is not important to this anecdote))  Anyway, my grandfather, for lack of a better word was... frugal with his rather large pension and investments.  Anyway, when my grandmother got better she was talking one day with my aunt.

Grandmother:  Y'know, I would rather like a mink coat.
Aunt:  Mom, that's gorgeous.  But, you know, it's really expensive.
Grandmother:  Yes, I know.  But, your father's has money.  I can spend it now.
Grandfather:  _Choking noises from the kitchen._

That story always made me giggle.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dad is now facing his 3rd exposure from a previously undiagnosed patient.  Feels reasonably confident he’ll test negative, though- nobody in the practice was around the patient without a mask.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Dad is now facing his 3rd exposure from a previously undiagnosed patient.  Feels reasonably confident he’ll test negative, though- nobody in the practice was around the patient without a mask.




 Walk in off the street or appointment only?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Appointment only.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Dad is now facing his 3rd exposure from a previously undiagnosed patient.  Feels reasonably confident he’ll test negative, though- nobody in the practice was around the patient without a mask.




So, your dad (and doctors, and... like, everyone) might be happy to hear about this coming down the pike - an AI that can tell if you have covid from the sound of your cough, _before you show symptoms_.  









						Artificial intelligence model detects asymptomatic Covid-19 infections through cellphone-recorded coughs
					

An artificial intelligence model can detect people who are asymptomatic with Covid-19, through cellphone-recorded coughs. The work was led by Brian Subirana and colleagues at the MIT Auto-ID Lab.




					news.mit.edu


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Appointment only.




 Ah nice. I got a drive through flu vaccine shot in an old garage they set up for drive through.

 Nurse had all the PPE, face shield not mask. 

 That was during lockdown. If it was feasible I got the impression they would dartboard me.


----------



## Hussar

@Umbran - I saw that article too. That is WAY cool.  I wonder if they will be able to app it.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> I wonder if they will be able to app it.




That does seem to be the plan:

_"The team is working on incorporating the model into a user-friendly app, which if FDA-approved and adopted on a large scale could potentially be a free, convenient, noninvasive prescreening tool to identify people who are likely to be asymptomatic for Covid-19. A user could log in daily, cough into their phone, and instantly get information on whether they might be infected and therefore should confirm with a formal test."_

You can imagine signs going up all over the place, "Green Cov-Cough result needed for entry."


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> So, your dad (and doctors, and... like, everyone) might be happy to hear about this coming down the pike - an AI that can tell if you have covid from the sound of your cough, _before you show symptoms_.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Artificial intelligence model detects asymptomatic Covid-19 infections through cellphone-recorded coughs
> 
> 
> An artificial intelligence model can detect people who are asymptomatic with Covid-19, through cellphone-recorded coughs. The work was led by Brian Subirana and colleagues at the MIT Auto-ID Lab.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.mit.edu



THAT could be a game changer for C19...and potentially for other things that affect the respiratory system!  

(Assuming that there are enough distinctions between cough types, consistent across a wide variety of variables, of course.)


----------



## Hussar

Although, thinking about it, coughing on your phone is one way germs get spread.  People need to observe good phone hygiene.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Bad news from the vaccine front:









						A public health nightmare: Mutated coronavirus strain could hit vaccine hopes
					

It was the news virologists had been dreading. Ever since the Chinese authorities released the full genetic code of SARS-CoV-2 in January, scientists have closely monitored any hint that the virus was mutating. This is because a genetically stable virus presents a stationary target at which the...




					www.yahoo.com
				








__





						Vir Biotechnology Publishes New Research Characterizing Variation in the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein and Virulence of a Prevalent Immune Evasion Variant, N439K | BioSpace
					

Vir Biotechnology Publishes New Research Characterizing Variation in the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein and Virulence of a Prevalent Immune Evasion Variant, N439K - read this article along with other careers information, tips and advice on BioSpace




					www.biospace.com
				




TL;DR- the first article describes that the Danish mutation has several key changes that could make finding a vaccine to it more difficult.  The second article describes yet another mutation (N439K) discovered by the University of Glasgow present in several countries- including the USA- provokes the creation of antibodies that are not as long lasting as those from other strains.


----------



## Garthanos

Hussar said:


> Although, thinking about it, coughing on your phone is one way germs get spread.  People need to observe good phone hygiene.



my wife uses my phone occasionally but honestly if any of the people who touch my phone are infected ... it wont be by phone that we transfer.


----------



## Eltab

Hussar said:


> Although, thinking about it, coughing on your phone is one way germs get spread.  People need to observe good phone hygiene.



My phone is attached to the wall by a cord, so it cannot get out where anybody else could cough on it.  Olde-school tech FTW !


----------



## Hussar

Eltab said:


> My phone is attached to the wall by a cord, so it cannot get out where anybody else could cough on it.  Olde-school tech FTW !



Might be a little tricky to put an app on that phone though.


----------



## Eltab

Hussar said:


> Might be a little tricky to put an app on that phone though.



The app can go on the other end of the connection.  Data is data.  I may have to pay for the doctor with his analysis program to get a "translate from unusual format" subroutine though...


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> The app can go on the other end of the connection.  Data is data.  I may have to pay for the doctor with his analysis program to get a "translate from unusual format" subroutine though...




Or the just set up a tablet with the app and an external mike on it that tests you at the office - if it comes back positive, you're now there for covid-testing, and the staff knows to be on point with the precautions with you.


----------



## Hussar

Eltab said:


> The app can go on the other end of the connection.  Data is data.  I may have to pay for the doctor with his analysis program to get a "translate from unusual format" subroutine though...




That might be a bit trickier though, depending on how good your phone and your phone line is.  There's no way it's going to have the quality that directly inputting will.  I don't know how sensitive the detection has to be.  One would think that the clearer the sound, the more accurate the determination though.


----------



## Eltab

Hussar said:


> That might be a bit trickier though, depending on how good your phone and your phone line is.  There's no way it's going to have the quality that directly inputting will.  I don't know how sensitive the detection has to be.  One would think that the clearer the sound, the more accurate the determination though.



Yah, the first problem to work out is "how is Corona cough different from flu cough different from "I have allergies" cough different from ... ? 

I was raking leaves in my yard and got some of the 'leaf dust' up my nose.  If the test program could hear me and misdiagnoses the racket I was making, do I get an ambulance pulling up to my house?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Or the just set up a tablet with the app and an external mike on it that tests you at the office - if it comes back positive, you're now there for covid-testing, and the staff knows to be on point with the precautions with you.



I was thinking at the doors to bars, restaurants, gyms and the like.


----------



## Hussar

Well, they already have cameras that tell your temperature, so, yeah, I could see that.  I can't enter the kindergarten I teach at without standing in front of that sensor every time.  Maybe not the most effective thing, but, it does seem to be working here.  Japan has gotten around the worst of things.  

News from near my hometown though just makes me shake my head:



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/2-000-people-march-through-aylmer-ont-to-protest-covid-19-health-measures-1.5794265
		


Sigh.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Well, they already have cameras that tell your temperature, so, yeah, I could see that.  I can't enter the kindergarten I teach at without standing in front of that sensor every time.  Maybe not the most effective thing, but, it does seem to be working here.  Japan has gotten around the worst of things.
> 
> News from near my hometown though just makes me shake my head:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/2-000-people-march-through-aylmer-ont-to-protest-covid-19-health-measures-1.5794265
> 
> 
> 
> Sigh.




 Covid fatigue eventually people just stop cooperating. 

 Half expecting lockdown 3.0 as we've had a few near misses last few days. In the lead up to 2.0 similar things started to happen.

 I suspect each one is gonna get harder to enforce.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I was thinking at the doors to bars, restaurants, gyms and the like.




Yep, that too and hair salons, small shops, etc.



Hussar said:


> Well, they already have cameras that tell your temperature, so, yeah, I could see that.  I can't enter the kindergarten I teach at without standing in front of that sensor every time.  Maybe not the most effective thing...




Oh, sorry, but temperature sensors are security theater.  I mean, yes, you want to keep folks who have fevers out, but on the whole, the thing is being spread by folks who don't have a fever - they are asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic.  

That's the cool thing about this sensor - folks who are otherwise asymptomatic apparently _do_ have some upper-respiratory changes that nobody notices, but come out in the sound of the cough.


----------



## Zardnaar

Personally I don't think it will work but worth trying. 

 Things like temperature checks and people going around disinfectanting streets are theatrics to reassure the public.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Potential good news!








						Pfizer says early analysis shows its Covid-19 vaccine is more than 90% effective | CNN
					

Drugmaker Pfizer said Monday an early look at data from its coronavirus vaccine shows it is more than 90% effective -- a much better than expected efficacy if the trend continues.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Potential good news!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pfizer says early analysis shows its Covid-19 vaccine is more than 90% effective | CNN
> 
> 
> Drugmaker Pfizer said Monday an early look at data from its coronavirus vaccine shows it is more than 90% effective -- a much better than expected efficacy if the trend continues.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com



There are 11 vaccines that are in the process of doing their early effectiveness testing 90 percent is good news though... and this specifically is also good news for the Mariana vaccine as they both use similar technology.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

But wait!  There’s more!  Pence tried to claim Pfizer’s announcement as a victory for the administration‘s Warp Speed program, only to be quickly and publicly fact-checked:



> Dr Kathrin Jansen, Pfizer’s head of vaccine development, told the New York Times: “We were never part of the Warp Speed ... We have never taken any money from the U.S. government, or from anyone.”












						Pence breaks silence to take credit for Pfizer vaccine - and drugs company immediately denies Trump involved
					

Mike Pence has broken his post-election silence to trumpet the Trump administration’s backing of a new coronavirus vaccine - only for the company to immediately point out that their vaccine had nothing to do with the government.  Pfizer announced on Monday morning that their Covid-19 vaccine was...




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Garthanos

The great thing about it is that they are not beholden to government aid.... they can benefit the whole of humanity without people like Trump / Pence getting in the way. That was one of the fears about the Warp Speed program that it would be a political bowling ball which meant it would only be applied where a politician allowed.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dannyalcatraz said:


> But wait!  There’s more!  Pence tried to claim Pfizer’s announcement as a victory for the administration‘s Warp Speed program, only to be quickly and publicly fact-checked:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pence breaks silence to take credit for Pfizer vaccine - and drugs company immediately denies Trump involved
> 
> 
> Mike Pence has broken his post-election silence to trumpet the Trump administration’s backing of a new coronavirus vaccine - only for the company to immediately point out that their vaccine had nothing to do with the government.  Pfizer announced on Monday morning that their Covid-19 vaccine was...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com



...and, for the record, several Trump acolytes are using their social media pulpits to amplify Pence’s...”claim”.


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ...and, for the record, several Trump acolytes are using their social media pulpits to amplify Pence’s...”claim”.



yes it is nonsense. I have no expectations of anything else from this lame duck administration


----------



## billd91

Garthanos said:


> yes it is nonsense. I have no expectations of anything else from this lame duck administration



Yeah, the bungling isn't going to suddenly turn into competence. I still expect him to fire Fauci (or try to if he doesn't have direct power to do so).
I'm waiting to see him also complain about Biden's COVID-19 task force as trying to exert presidential powers before actually being president. But it just underscores the difference, for me, between someone who wants to *DO* the job and someone who wants to *HAVE* (or cling to) the job.
Frankly, we need more of the former than the latter to deal with the pandemic.


----------



## Imaculata

billd91 said:


> Yeah, the bungling isn't going to suddenly turn into competence. I still expect him to fire Fauci (or try to if he doesn't have direct power to do so).




He can try, but Biden can simply rehire him. So would Trump even bother? I guess in a last fit of rage, he could fire everyone around him as he's dragged kicking and screaming from the White House.

But both Biden and Obama have already stated publically that Fauci is the only competent person remaining in the administration who can help get the epidemic under control. It would reflect really badly on Trump to do so right before he leaves office. I'm relieved (like most of the world I suspect) regarding the election results. Biden is America's best chance in getting this epidemic under control.

And now for your entertainment, another gem from Dutch satirical show "Zondag met Lubach". Be sure to put down your drink first.

*Mod Edit:* Video removed.  This thread is not about politics.  ~Umbran


----------



## Zardnaar

Even with competent leadership idk how to fix that. Vaccine maybe. 

 Took Australia 3 months of lockdown to wipe out Covid in Melbourne, 7 and 5 weeks here with vastly smaller numbers. 

 Technically Aussie and NZ are allied with USA (ANZUS) but Biden could cast summon allies and parachute Jacinda and Ashley in with the entire Australian army to help with 4 trillion dollars and idk if that would work. 

 Marshall Plan after WW2 is peanuts in comparison.

 Still gotta start somewhere.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

@Imaculata

Don‘t underestimate the appeal and power of spite.  Firings and protest resignations in a few branches have already begun.  Fauci and Birx could be on his enemies list. 

After all, what’s the worst blowback from indulging his baser instincts Trump could suffer at this point?


----------



## Umbran

*Mod Note:*
Folks,

Please back off from the politics.  Thank you.


----------



## Zardnaar

Someone didn't study for their exams. 









						University of Auckland believes online threat to spread Covid-19 at exams is not genuine
					

A screenshot is circulating online of a threat to spread the virus during exams.




					www.tvnz.co.nz
				




 Last threat like this was tracked to Brazil. 

 Plenty of knuckle draggers doing BComs though thinking they're Uber mensch. 

 Shouldn't be to hard to catch just leave out a bag of Doritos and a copy of Mein Kampf under a net.


----------



## Eltab

Would the jerk in question be able to read the book?


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> Would the jerk in question be able to read the book?




 If at University yes.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Update on the realities behind the potential C19 vaccines and therapeutics:









						Experts caution against getting overexcited about COVID-19 vaccine, treatment news
					

“There are no magic wands or bullets here,” one expert tells Yahoo Life. “COVID-19 is not going away.”




					www.yahoo.com
				




Long story short- all of the stuff coming down the pipe looks promising, but each also presents RW challenges for actual use, such as limited shelf life and rigorous storage/shipping requirements, or dosing that is difficult to administer.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Long story short- all of the stuff coming down the pipe looks promising, but each also presents RW challenges for actual use, such as limited shelf life and rigorous storage/shipping requirements, or dosing that is difficult to administer.




I would think that it is a bit of a miracle that folks have been able to generate things that work after only a few months - expecting it to be optimized for use in the general populace on industrial scales would be a bit much to ask.


----------



## Henry

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Update on the realities behind the potential C19 vaccines and therapeutics:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Experts caution against getting overexcited about COVID-19 vaccine, treatment news
> 
> 
> “There are no magic wands or bullets here,” one expert tells Yahoo Life. “COVID-19 is not going away.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Long story short- all of the stuff coming down the pipe looks promising, but each also presents RW challenges for actual use, such as limited shelf life and rigorous storage/shipping requirements, or dosing that is difficult to administer.



Honestly, those kinds of problems don’t worry me terribly, because STEMies are fiendishly clever when you give them a definitive problem to solve.  doesn’t matter if it takes a few billion dollars and a truckload of volunteers to do it in the most convoluted fashion possible the first time around, they’ll get it done when the time comes.

The hardest part will honestly come from fighting mistrust and misinformation. 1.2 million people dead, and you still have (at best) misinformed and (at worst) outright trolls out there still talking about “Shamdemics” and posting stock photos of babies as “children lost to vaccines”; as if they are the cognoscenti instead of the idiots riding bicycles on tightropes that they are.

Sorry, I just got off of a YouTube video talking about this stuff and it’s made me REALLY testy.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I would think that it is a bit of a miracle that folks have been able to generate things that work after only a few months - expecting it to be optimized for use in the general populace on industrial scales would be a bit much to ask.



No question!

But it’s also good to get a reality check to know that- if nothing else changes- we won’t be getting C19 vaccines or therapies as easily as an annual flu shot or chemotherapy.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Henry said:


> Honestly, those kinds of problems don’t worry me terribly, because STEMies are fiendishly clever when you give them a definitive problem to solve.  doesn’t matter if it takes a few billion dollars and a truckload of volunteers to do it in the most convoluted fashion possible the first time around, they’ll get it done when the time comes.
> 
> The hardest part will honestly come from fighting mistrust and misinformation. 1.2 million people dead, and you still have (at best) misinformed and (at worst) outright trolls out there still talking about “Shamdemics” and posting stock photos of babies as “children lost to vaccines”; as if they are the cognoscenti instead of the idiots riding bicycles on tightropes that they are.
> 
> Sorry, I just got off of a YouTube video talking about this stuff and it’s made me REALLY testy.



Some of the problems presented are definitely nontrivial.  The therapy they discussed looks good, but it’s limited as to who can take it, and as an IV administered chemical, will require a big investment in physical plant and personnel to administer to statistically significant numbers of patients.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Someone didn't study for their exams.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> University of Auckland believes online threat to spread Covid-19 at exams is not genuine
> 
> 
> A screenshot is circulating online of a threat to spread the virus during exams.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tvnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Last threat like this was tracked to Brazil.
> 
> Plenty of knuckle draggers doing BComs though thinking they're Uber mensch.
> 
> Shouldn't be to hard to catch just leave out a bag of Doritos and a copy of Mein Kampf under a net.



Used to work in uni of Auckland exams, not the first time we've had crack like this spouted by students. Last one joked about a bomb threat but was more easily found out. Think his older sister was not amused by being worn by the armed offenders squad in the early hours.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Used to work in uni of Auckland exams, not the first time we've had crack like this spouted by students. Last one joked about a bomb threat but was more easily found out. Think his older sister was not amused by being worn by the armed offenders squad in the early hours.




 Covid 3.0?









						Mayor Phil Goff on latest Auckland CBD Covid-19 case
					

Workers in Auckland's CBD are being asked to stay at home on Friday if at all possible as Health authorities race to find the source of a new community case of Covid-19. A woman in her 20s returned a positive test on Thursday, but has no apparent connection with overseas travel, the border, or...




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Covid 3.0?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mayor Phil Goff on latest Auckland CBD Covid-19 case
> 
> 
> Workers in Auckland's CBD are being asked to stay at home on Friday if at all possible as Health authorities race to find the source of a new community case of Covid-19. A woman in her 20s returned a positive test on Thursday, but has no apparent connection with overseas travel, the border, or...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz



That patient’s manager is as rock as a box of dumbs.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That patient’s manager is as rock as a box of dumbs.




 They're claiming they weren't told. 

 See what happens.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Covid 3.0?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mayor Phil Goff on latest Auckland CBD Covid-19 case
> 
> 
> Workers in Auckland's CBD are being asked to stay at home on Friday if at all possible as Health authorities race to find the source of a new community case of Covid-19. A woman in her 20s returned a positive test on Thursday, but has no apparent connection with overseas travel, the border, or...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz



Yep, idiot manager and everything and now it's likely that we are locked down again.


Zardnaar said:


> They're claiming they weren't told.
> 
> See what happens.



From the 1pm briefing, the staff member apparently told their manager and the manager said come in anyway. At least I get to sleep in tomorrow.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Yep, idiot manager and everything and now it's likely that we are locked down again.
> 
> From the 1pm briefing, the staff member apparently told their manager and the manager said come in anyway. At least I get to sleep in tomorrow.




 I don't think they'll lock down unless they find a heap of new cases.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> I don't think they'll lock down unless they find a heap of new cases.



Maybe not, overnight testing shows it might be linked to a known cluster. Guess I'll find out today what's happening.


----------



## Ryujin

Well it's seriously looking like my Region is going to be going back into lockdown again, soon. People just can't seem to follow basic direction and Diwali is on Saturday (my city is roughly 45% South Asian and Diwali is huge), so another spike is expected. Fun.









						Ontario reports more than 1,500 new cases of COVID-19, highest number on record
					

New COVID-19 cases in Ontario continue to surge with more than 1,500 new infections logged.



					toronto.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Thomas Shey

I regular get Time Magazine's COVID briefing e-mail newsletter, and let me tell you, the U.S. state summaries of case risings the last week has been more than a little disconcerting.  Even in places that have some kind of handle on it its going upward, and a couple of the Midwest states have been spiking on rises of more than 64 per hundred thousand.


----------



## CleverNickName

News outlets here are reporting that 1600 people are being hospitalized per day on average, and that mobile morgues are being set up in Texas.  Currently the State of Texas alone has more cases of Covid-19 than the entire _country_ of Italy.

It's not even noon, and already we've passed 110,000 new cases for today.  They are predicting 200,000 new cases _per day_ as early as next week.

So much for "flattening the curve."  It looks like Americans got tired of Covid-19 so we just decided it was over.  Or we decided it was all a political stunt, or that it was all a hoax or "liberal conspiracy," as if a friggin' _virus _was a stranger on the Internet that they could argue with.  I mean, hundreds of thousands of people have died but whatever, nothing anybody can do about that, these things happen, anyway did you hear about Trump's latest lawsuit?

It's frustrating to live in a country where people are so enamored with "free speech" that they think their opinions are equally valid as science, that they stop listening as soon as they hear something they don't like.  People (and elected officials) in America treat facts and safety guidelines like a pick-and-choose salad bar, to the ruin of all.

Damn it.


----------



## Thomas Shey

The line I always heard was "You have a right to your own opinion, but not a right to your own facts."  But because of events in the last few years people are prone to not accepting facts that don't fit with the narrative they've developed, and once that happens (and people decide they're fit to judge what's true and false more than professionals in the field), chaos has really won far more than any civil unrest can do.


----------



## Umbran

And we like to think humans are "intelligent".  Sure.  _sigh_


----------



## Janx

It's an example where free speech hurts us. One could easily argue that restricting speech is bad, but the reality is, having it wide open has been weaponized and allowed the stupid and the evil to win.  Youtube can make someone a flat-earther in 3 weeks due to how it leads a viewer to more extreme content.  Blocking all forms of false content and content producers would nip that in the bud. If anybody spreading falsehoods about Covid got shutdown, we'd have more compliance with guidelines.

Would that be a terrible world?   Turns out the one where everybody  is allowed to say anything isn't working out because Somebody is actively using that against us. Might be time to settle for "Kind of Free" speech.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Maybe not, overnight testing shows it might be linked to a known cluster. Guess I'll find out today what's happening.




1pm briefing season 3. NZs favorite show. 

 How about South Island becomes independent? We'll take Jacinda, you can have Judith? Deal? We have cookies (Cookie time factory).


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> News outlets here are reporting that 1600 people are being hospitalized per day on average, and that mobile morgues are being set up in Texas.  Currently the State of Texas alone has more cases of Covid-19 than the entire _country_ of Italy.
> 
> It's not even noon, and already we've passed 110,000 new cases for today.  They are predicting 200,000 new cases _per day_ as early as next week.
> 
> So much for "flattening the curve."  It looks like Americans got tired of Covid-19 so we just decided it was over.  Or we decided it was all a political stunt, or that it was all a hoax or "liberal conspiracy," as if a friggin' _virus _was a stranger on the Internet that they could argue with.  I mean, hundreds of thousands of people have died but whatever, nothing anybody can do about that, these things happen, anyway did you hear about Trump's latest lawsuit?
> 
> It's frustrating to live in a country where people are so enamored with "free speech" that they think their opinions are equally valid as science, that they stop listening as soon as they hear something they don't like.  People (and elected officials) in America treat facts and safety guidelines like a pick-and-choose salad bar, to the ruin of all.
> 
> Damn it.




 Europe's not doing any better. Different reasons perhaps. 

 Complacency might get us. The old "she'll be right".


----------



## billd91

Janx said:


> Would that be a terrible world?   Turns out the one where everybody  is allowed to say anything isn't working out because Somebody is actively using that against us. Might be time to settle for "Kind of Free" speech.



It's not like disinformation hasn't been a problem since long before free speech was a concept - history's full of atrocities committed because people got a bad notion in their heads. It's just that modern society and tools make it really easy to spread.

The US has a bigger problem than unregulated speech on social media - or at least we have it worse than a lot of other places. We've got this attitude that a person really is some kind of island and they can ignore any public restriction whether well-intentioned, well-reasoned, or well-constructed just because they *feel like it*. And it's killing us in *so* many ways.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> 1pm briefing season 3. NZs favorite show.
> 
> How about South Island becomes independent? We'll take Jacinda, you can have Judith? Deal? We have cookies (Cookie time factory).



On behalf of the North Island, I'm going to have to decline taking Judith. Maybe we can ship her off to Stuart Island.

I know we have the Chelsea sugar factory, could be the basis for trade between the north and south islands. Cookie time needs to get sugar from somewhere.


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> Would that be a terrible world?   Turns out the one where everybody  is allowed to say anything isn't working out because Somebody is actively using that against us. Might be time to settle for "Kind of Free" speech.




Or, actually put an effort into teaching people some critical thinking skills.  



billd91 said:


> The US has a bigger problem than unregulated speech on social media - or at least we have it worse than a lot of other places. We've got this attitude that a person really is some kind of island and they can ignore any public restriction whether well-intentioned, well-reasoned, or well-constructed just because they *feel like it*. And it's killing us in *so* many ways.




Make that critical thinking, and a hefty dose of civics courses.


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> 1pm briefing season 3. NZs favorite show.
> 
> How about South Island becomes independent? We'll take Jacinda, you can have Judith? Deal? We have cookies (Cookie time factory).



Looks like we need to wait another hour for the update. Way to keep us in suspense.

The student was also on AUT campus while infections, only around 10 minutes or so, so low-risk of infection for casual contacts but still I'd be worried if I was around there at the time.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> On behalf of the North Island, I'm going to have to decline taking Judith. Maybe we can ship her off to Stuart Island.
> 
> I know we have the Chelsea sugar factory, could be the basis for trade between the north and south islands. Cookie time needs to get sugar from somewhere.




 Touche. Can't do that to Stewart Island. I think the Auckland's are uninhabited.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Looks like we need to wait another hour for the update. Way to keep us in suspense.
> 
> The student was also on AUT campus while infections, only around 10 minutes or so, so low-risk of infection for casual contacts but still I'd be worried if I was around there at the time.




 Reddit saying it's linked to defense force cluster. Guess we'll find out with 2pm update. 

 Wonder who comes out, Ashley it's serious, Jacinda lockdown?


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Reddit saying it's linked to defense force cluster. Guess we'll find out with 2pm update.
> 
> Wonder who comes out, Ashley it's serious, Jacinda lockdown?



I think the article said the minster of health and another doctor. Though who knows, Jacinda and Ashley might pop out and be all "Surprise! It's lockdown 3.0!"


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> I think the article said the minster of health and another doctor. Though who knows, Jacinda and Ashley might pop out and be all "Surprise! It's lockdown 3.0!"




 Did you ever by into what she is about to say by how she's tied her hair?


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> Did you ever by into what she is about to say by how she's tied her hair?



I didn't even realise that was a thing. Is it like if she has it tied back she's about to drop another lockdown?


----------



## cmad1977

CleverNickName said:


> News outlets here are reporting that 1600 people are being hospitalized per day on average, and that mobile morgues are being set up in Texas. Currently the State of Texas alone has more cases of Covid-19 than the entire _country_ of Italy.
> 
> It's not even noon, and already we've passed 110,000 new cases for today. They are predicting 200,000 new cases _per day_ as early as next week.
> 
> So much for "flattening the curve." It looks like Americans got tired of Covid-19 so we just decided it was over. Or we decided it was all a political stunt, or that it was all a hoax or "liberal conspiracy," as if a friggin' _virus _was a stranger on the Internet that they could argue with. I mean, hundreds of thousands of people have died but whatever, nothing anybody can do about that, these things happen, anyway did you hear about Trump's latest lawsuit?
> 
> It's frustrating to live in a country where people are so enamored with "free speech" that they think their opinions are equally valid as science, that they stop listening as soon as they hear something they don't like. People (and elected officials) in America treat facts and safety guidelines like a pick-and-choose salad bar, to the ruin of all.
> 
> Damn it.




It’s not that we “got over it” it’s that a very particular group of people sharing a particular political ideology refused to do the bare minimum to protect the lives of other Americans.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

cmad1977 said:


> It’s not that we “got over it” it’s that a very particular group of people sharing a particular political ideology refused to do the bare minimum to protect the lives of other Americans.



In part because wearing a mask and washing your hands isn’t the same kind of heroic fantasy fuel as camoflage flak vests and AR-15s.  The heroism involved is too mundane and ho-hum.


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> I didn't even realise that was a thing. Is it like if she has it tied back she's about to drop another lockdown?




 Something like that. I wasnt to convinced.


----------



## cmad1977

Umbran said:


> Or, actually put an effort into teaching people some critical thinking skills.
> 
> 
> 
> Make that critical thinking, and a hefty dose of civics courses.




The issue with teaching critical thinking/basic logic in school(and it should be a required high school course) is that kids then go home and ask their parents questions that their parents are t equipped to answer. Parents get mad, complain.... 
and there goes critical thinking.


----------



## CleverNickName

I'm trying really hard to avoid talking about politics, but don't put this on our schools or our teachers.  They aren't the ones who failed us.


----------



## Deset Gled

CleverNickName said:


> I'm trying really hard to avoid talking about politics, but don't put this on our schools or our teachers.  They aren't the ones who failed us.



Indeed.  Many studies have started to show that older people are simply more susceptible to misinformation.  The exact reasons for this remain unclear, but education and availability to information don't seem to be the biggest factors.

Combine that with a major media group (I'm just going to say it: Fox News) that actively markets misinformation to older people, and you have a recipe for trouble.


----------



## Umbran

cmad1977 said:


> The issue with teaching critical thinking/basic logic in school(and it should be a required high school course) is that kids then go home and ask their parents questions that their parents are t equipped to answer. Parents get mad, complain....
> and there goes critical thinking.




When the kids can ask questions the parents cannot answer... that is called "progress".  That is, in fact, the goal.   And yes, parents have been complaining about progress for time immemorial - but that doesn't stop it.


----------



## Umbran

CleverNickName said:


> I'm trying really hard to avoid talking about politics, but don't put this on our schools or our teachers.




That we, as a culture, are not strong on critical thinking is empirically true.  Nobody has spoken about fault.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> When the kids can ask questions the parents cannot answer... that is called "progress".  That is, in fact, the goal.   And yes, parents have been complaining about progress for time immemorial - but that doesn't stop it.



“Dad, where does fire come from?”


----------



## Eltab

Well, it looks like the folks that complained " we you aren't locked down enough" are going to try try again.  Even though no other contagious disease has been fought by putting the entire population into impromptu isolation wards.

It's like the authorities would rather do anything than get into the field, find out who is infected, and restrict _them_ until treated and cured.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> “Dad, where does fire come from?”



Lightning strikes, son.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> It's like the authorities would rather do anything than get into the field, find out who is infected, and restrict _them_ until treated and cured.




Congratulations.  You just invented contact tracing.  It is, in fact, happening.

It is a fine technique when the numbers are still small.  Back in January, or in Early Spring, or even in the lull around early July, it might have worked.  But, it becomes intractable at scale, and it ceases to be effective in situations of frequent and broad community spread. On November 11th alone, the US picked up over 140K cases.  The workforce required to follow up on each of those and actually be sure ALL the contacted people test and quarantine simply doesn't exist.  And even if they did, when we are picking up that many new known cases each day, the reservoir of unkown cases is also large. Following up on the known cases does not reveal all the unknown cases that will cotinue spreading the disease.

When the number of unknown cases gets too large, contact tracing is simply _too darn slow_ to stem the tide, and other measures are needed.

The "authorities" that matter here is the Federal government.  States, not being able to print money, have resources too restricted to mount this on their own.  And the Administration has spent its efforts in denial and deflection - so, yes, they would rather do anything than actually deal with the issues.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Even with competent leadership idk how to fix that. Vaccine maybe.
> 
> Took Australia 3 months of lockdown to wipe out Covid in Melbourne, 7 and 5 weeks here with vastly smaller numbers.
> 
> Technically Aussie and NZ are allied with USA (ANZUS) but Biden could cast summon allies and parachute Jacinda and Ashley in with the entire Australian army to help with 4 trillion dollars and idk if that would work.
> 
> Marshall Plan after WW2 is peanuts in comparison.
> 
> Still gotta start somewhere.



There is a slightly more moderate middle here.  

You are never, ever going to be able to enforce a lockdown in the States such as NZ had.  It just isn't feasible.  Never minding we're talking, what, ten times the population spread over an area several times larger.  It's just not going to work.  You have to remember, there are individual STATES that are larger than New Zealand.  Combined with various other issues, such as a serious lack of social welfare net in the US, unless you're willing to let large numbers of people starve to death, the kind of lockdown that NZ practiced just isn't going to happen.

OTOH, I live in a country where things are largely back to normal.  Travel is unrestricted, and nothing is really closed.  Yes, we are having about 500 cases a day.  In a country of 120 million?  That's acceptable, no?  Remember, Japan's had less than 2000 deaths, in a population that is extremely susceptible to Covid.  

If people would simply accept some minor restrictions - limit gatherings for a month or so, wear the damn mask, that sort of thing - Canada and the US would have solved this already.  

How the hell wearing a mask got turned into a partisan political statement is just the most baffling thing I've ever seen.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> When the kids can ask questions the parents cannot answer... that is called "progress".  That is, in fact, the goal.   And yes, parents have been complaining about progress for time immemorial - but that doesn't stop it.




 At university







Hussar said:


> There is a slightly more moderate middle here.
> 
> You are never, ever going to be able to enforce a lockdown in the States such as NZ had.  It just isn't feasible.  Never minding we're talking, what, ten times the population spread over an area several times larger.  It's just not going to work.  You have to remember, there are individual STATES that are larger than New Zealand.  Combined with various other issues, such as a serious lack of social welfare net in the US, unless you're willing to let large numbers of people starve to death, the kind of lockdown that NZ practiced just isn't going to happen.
> 
> OTOH, I live in a country where things are largely back to normal.  Travel is unrestricted, and nothing is really closed.  Yes, we are having about 500 cases a day.  In a country of 120 million?  That's acceptable, no?  Remember, Japan's had less than 2000 deaths, in a population that is extremely susceptible to Covid.
> 
> If people would simply accept some minor restrictions - limit gatherings for a month or so, wear the damn mask, that sort of thing - Canada and the US would have solved this already.
> 
> How the hell wearing a mask got turned into a partisan political statement is just the most baffling thing I've ever seen.




 Asia seems to be coping the best. 

 More experience with SARs, mask wearing and cultural I suppose.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Oops.








						Covid-19 outbreak strikes first cruise to resume sailing in the Caribbean
					

A handful of passengers aboard SeaDream 1 have tested positive for Covid-19. It's the first cruise to resume sailing in the Caribbean.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Hussar

Heh.  We always kind of snickered at folks wearing masks here before.  It's such a good idea.  It was never about preventing a disease, but, about preventing spread.  If you were sick, you whacked on a mask so you didn't give your bugs to other folks.  

And, largely, it works.  I mean, you've got subways here, jammed to the rafters, day after day, and we're still not anywhere near an emergency.  Say what you like, it does work.

On a side note, I took my daughter to the doctor today for a cold (just a cold thankfully), and, between waiting maybe 30 seconds to see the doctor, and the entire thing costing me 20 bucks between the consult and the perscription meds, I have to admit, Japan's really got it's health care system locked down.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Heh.  We always kind of snickered at folks wearing masks here before.  It's such a good idea.  It was never about preventing a disease, but, about preventing spread.  If you were sick, you whacked on a mask so you didn't give your bugs to other folks.
> 
> And, largely, it works.  I mean, you've got subways here, jammed to the rafters, day after day, and we're still not anywhere near an emergency.  Say what you like, it does work.
> 
> On a side note, I took my daughter to the doctor today for a cold (just a cold thankfully), and, between waiting maybe 30 seconds to see the doctor, and the entire thing costing me 20 bucks between the consult and the perscription meds, I have to admit, Japan's really got it's health care system locked down.




I thought no kids are free here for doctor's visits. I don't have the discount card cost me around $30 and ,$3.50 for prescription. 

 4 inhalers
Blood test
Checkup
Blood pressure check

 Flu vaccine (free)

 Was basically a follow up. Got two inhalers for my $3.50 and the refills were included. Dodged all the bugs this year. 

 They ran out of some drugs though because Covid.


----------



## cmad1977

Umbran said:


> When the kids can ask questions the parents cannot answer... that is called "progress". That is, in fact, the goal. And yes, parents have been complaining about progress for time immemorial - but that doesn't stop it.




Right. Explain that to the parents when little Timmy asks question like...
“Mommy... if god is good, and omnipotent AND omniscient.... then why.....”

And that type of question arises when you teach logic that EXPLICITLY avoids the topic of religion.


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In part because wearing a mask and washing your hands isn’t the same kind of heroic fantasy fuel as camoflage flak vests and AR-15s.  The heroism involved is too mundane and ho-hum.



The other thing is that the heroic fantasy with the camo flak vests and AR-15s generally remains safely a fantasy. They aren't actually called upon to *do* anything and they can continue to "play" hero in their heads or by walking into a Culvers with an AR-15 strapped on.

Wearing a mask, washing hands, socially distancing - all of those require somewhat inconvenient changes in real behavior.


----------



## Umbran

cmad1977 said:


> Right. Explain that to the parents when little Timmy asks question like...
> “Mommy... if god is good, and omnipotent AND omniscient.... then why.....”
> 
> And that type of question arises when you teach logic that EXPLICITLY avoids the topic of religion.




I mean, setting aside how I suggested _critical thinking_, not just "logic"....

That question is hardly the domain of logic.  It will come up at some point of great loss, tragedy, or injustice anyway.  And it is not like faith systems are not prepared with answers.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Researchers have identified the presence of autoantibodies as a possible reason why some patients get sicker from C19 than others.








						Why Covid-19 kills certain patients, especially men, revealed in 'breakthrough finding'
					

Research shows Covid-19 patients with life-threatening illness have antibodies that disable key immune system proteins called interferons.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Oops.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19 outbreak strikes first cruise to resume sailing in the Caribbean
> 
> 
> A handful of passengers aboard SeaDream 1 have tested positive for Covid-19. It's the first cruise to resume sailing in the Caribbean.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com



I mean, that was bound to happen. Did we not learn from the last time this happened?


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I mean, that was bound to happen. Did we not learn from the last time this happened?




 Surprised they're even doing them. 

 There's talk here of starting cruises up again but it's coastal only with vague plans to include Australia and the South Pacific. 

 Cook Islands, Fiji , Samoa etc also seeing what's happening in French Polynesia and Guam so don't seem to crazy.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Sweden is changing strategies because their initial one did not yield the desired results.








						Sweden has admitted its coronavirus immunity predictions were wrong as cases soar across the country
					

Sweden's chief epidemiologist has admitted that the country is experiencing a second wave of coronavirus as cases and deaths from the disease surge.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sweden is changing strategies because their initial one did not yield the desired results.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sweden has admitted its coronavirus immunity predictions were wrong as cases soar across the country
> 
> 
> Sweden's chief epidemiologist has admitted that the country is experiencing a second wave of coronavirus as cases and deaths from the disease surge.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




 For a while people were pushing Sweden's strategy. 

 Even early on though per capita they were losing more than USA. 

 They did take less of an economic hit but easily explained by higher levels of government spending pre Covid anyway. 
 Norway or Finland probably doing about the best you can in Europe. 

 Germany not doing so well now either despite positive press 6 months ago. 

 Italy and Spain were just earlier along in the transmission cycle. AFAIK it jumped from Spain early on into places like Ecuador and Peru. Things were dire in Ecuador early on as well.

 Seems they took the earlier we're doing better approach and kept doing it.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Janx said:


> It's an example where free speech hurts us. One could easily argue that restricting speech is bad, but the reality is, having it wide open has been weaponized and allowed the stupid and the evil to win.  Youtube can make someone a flat-earther in 3 weeks due to how it leads a viewer to more extreme content.  Blocking all forms of false content and content producers would nip that in the bud. If anybody spreading falsehoods about Covid got shutdown, we'd have more compliance with guidelines.
> 
> Would that be a terrible world?   Turns out the one where everybody  is allowed to say anything isn't working out because Somebody is actively using that against us. Might be time to settle for "Kind of Free" speech.




On the other hand, restricting speech for "the public good" has a sufficiently dodgy history its hard for me to get on board that one, either.  Its about as intrinsically corrupting a tool as possibly can exist.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Or, actually put an effort into teaching people some critical thinking skills.





This would be my inclination.

Unfortunately, there's a few too many people who find critical thinking skills a threat to the ideology they have, and have made it policy to present them as suspect, so...


----------



## Mikeythorn

Thomas Shey said:


> On the other hand, restricting speech for "the public good" has a sufficiently dodgy history its hard for me to get on board that one, either.  Its about as intrinsically corrupting a tool as possibly can exist.



This is very much a tangent, but I keep hearing statements like this and they really annoy me. Lots of countries, including my own, have laws restricting speech for the public good and they work fine - and have worked fine for very long periods of time. Sure, you can find dodgy cases of restriction of speech at various points of world history, but you can also point to anti-hate speech laws in most of the Western world that function effectively and provide important protections for vulnerable people.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Mikeythorn said:


> This is very much a tangent, but I keep hearing statements like this and they really annoy me. Lots of countries, including my own, have laws restricting speech for the public good and they work fine - and have worked fine for very long periods of time. Sure, you can find dodgy cases of restriction of speech at various points of world history, but you can also point to anti-hate speech laws in most of the Western world that function effectively and provide important protections for vulnerable people.




Except we're not talking about hate speech.  We're talking about conspiracy theories and misinformation.  

And once you're allowed to block that, I have absolutely no faith in things being labelled "misinformation" that are simply awfully inconvenient for the people in control of the process.  And I don't know of a single place that has the ability to do that where its not been abused.  Do you?


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> Except we're not talking about hate speech.  We're talking about conspiracy theories and misinformation.




To keep this _in bounds_ and not going down the general political route...

If that misinformation is relevant to public health, that's a real problem.  If you spread misinformation about covid-19 _and someone dies_, well, then there's dead people out there.  That's right, at this point, the misinformation that you put in quotes to make is seem questionable _can kill people_.

So consider that.  Your right to free speech has limits.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> To keep this _in bounds_ and not going down the general political route...
> 
> If that misinformation is relevant to public health, that's a real problem.  If you spread misinformation about covid-19 _and someone dies_, well, then there's dead people out there.  That's right, at this point, the misinformation that you put in quotes to make is seem questionable _can kill people_.
> 
> So consider that.  Your right to free speech has limits.




I absolutely agree.  I'm just noting that any general attempt to address the tendency for misinformation to propagate through modern digital channels is fraught, and simply solutions to it are even more fraught.  But the fact facts about COVID-19 have become political is idiocy of the first water.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> I'm just noting that any general attempt to address the tendency for misinformation to propagate through modern digital channels ...




... is really beyond the topic of this thread.  This is a thread about Covid-19.  For reasons of our no-politics rule, we should avoid talking about the "general attempt".


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ND’s Gov is changing tactics (about damn time):








						North Dakota governor changes tack and issues mask mandate
					

After months of resisting ordering the people of North Dakota to wear masks and limit the size of gatherings, the state's Republican governor relented in an effort to stem a coronavirus surge that is among the worst in the U.S. and that threatens to overwhelm the state's hospitals. Gov. Doug...




					finance.yahoo.com
				




And of course...


> Rick Becker, a Republican state representative who is a plastic surgeon and who owns two bars in downtown Bismarck, said Saturday that he will refuse to wear a mask and that he suspects many others in the conservative state will protest the “draconian” directive.
> 
> “The electorate is going to be split,” Becker said. “People who want the government to take care of them will be happy.”


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ND’s Gov is changing tactics (about damn time):
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> North Dakota governor changes tack and issues mask mandate
> 
> 
> After months of resisting ordering the people of North Dakota to wear masks and limit the size of gatherings, the state's Republican governor relented in an effort to stem a coronavirus surge that is among the worst in the U.S. and that threatens to overwhelm the state's hospitals. Gov. Doug...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> finance.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And of course...




 News here was saying South Dakota was getting a 50-68% positive rate on their testing. 

 I've been using ABC on youtube for American stuff while father in law uses CNN. 

 Been expecting this since sturgess so maybe Covid doesn't spread as fast as I thought.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> ... is really beyond the topic of this thread.  This is a thread about Covid-19.  For reasons of our no-politics rule, we should avoid talking about the "general attempt".




Entirely fair.


----------



## Bohandas

I have to say, if I haven't already, that all this has certainly made it a lot easier to envision the size of one grid square


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

More reality checks on C19 vaccination in the USA:








						I Was a Military COVID Planner. The Vaccine Rollout Is Going to Be a Nightmare.
					

No matter how you feel about Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential race and his touted plans to embrace science over magical thinking in fighting the coronavirus, we’re stuck with a simple reality.The incoming administration will inherit one of the most daunting challenges any president has...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Ryujin

As predicted, it happened. Fines are supposed to start at C$10,000.00.









						Fines issued in Brampton for large Diwali gatherings
					

"They never exceeded numbers that were allowed inside the Gurdwara, but outside, because of people wlaking up from the neighbourhood and cars driving up, it created a crowded scene which is not permissible."




					www.iheartradio.ca


----------



## Zardnaar

Moderna a vaccine 95% effective. 



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/16/covid-moderna-vaccine/
		










						Home - BBC News
					

Visit BBC News for up-to-the-minute news, breaking news, video, audio and feature stories. BBC News provides trusted World and UK news as well as local and regional perspectives. Also entertainment, business, science, technology and health news.




					www.bbc.com
				




 And if anyone want a comparison in messaging today's interview in NZ.

 Apparently the Russians took the pfizer number and added 2% to its effectiveness number. Not sure how reliable that is Russian poster mentioned it so grain of salt.


----------



## tomBitonti

Zardnaar said:


> Moderna a vaccine 95% effective.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/16/covid-moderna-vaccine/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Home - BBC News
> 
> 
> Visit BBC News for up-to-the-minute news, breaking news, video, audio and feature stories. BBC News provides trusted World and UK news as well as local and regional perspectives. Also entertainment, business, science, technology and health news.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And if anyone want a comparison in messaging today's interview in NZ.
> 
> Apparently the Russians took the pfizer number and added 2% to its effectiveness number. Not sure how reliable that is Russian poster mentioned it so grain of salt.



Aside:  what is with the color palette in that video?  Pink, orange, plum, blue...  I think it’s a very nice set of colors, but have not see it before in a news broadcast.

Anyways, carry on!  Be safe and well,
Tom Bitonti


----------



## Zardnaar

Nurse in South Dakota. 

Patients denying they have Covid up until death. 



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/16/south-dakota-nurse-coronavirus-deniers/#comments-wrapper


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yeah, saw that online and later, her interview on CNN.  Reminds me of things I‘ve seen in horror films.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yeah, saw that online and later, her interview on CNN.  Reminds me of things I‘ve seen in horror films.




  I don't have CNN. 

 Watch very little broadcast stuff. A few US famous people sound a bit funny to me as Im not used to audio.

 I'll probably cancel WaPo soon.only got it for election coverage.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Anyone who understands anything about the logistics of vaccine distribution knew that no matter how fast they got a functional one in, it was going to be kind of a nightmare.  The Pfizer one just complicates this because of the refrigeration issues, but just the ampule issue was going to complicate it.

This is why I've been telling people who aren't high risk to expect it not to even be an option for them until at least the middle of next year.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Been expecting this since sturgess so maybe Covid doesn't spread as fast as I thought.



Sturgiss sent large numbers of people after they gathered in small spaces and breathed each others spital sans masks all around the country when they went home so the locations of their outbreaks were national even more than local.


----------



## Garthanos

Thomas Shey said:


> Anyone who understands anything about the logistics of vaccine distribution knew that no matter how fast they got a functional one in, it was going to be kind of a nightmare.  The Pfizer one just complicates this because of the refrigeration issues, but just the ampule issue was going to complicate it.
> 
> This is why I've been telling people who aren't high risk to expect it not to even be an option for them until at least the middle of next year.



I think your guess on timing is about right but I think another recently announced one (I have had my eye on the Moderna too) based on the same technology purports to require less extreme refrigeration


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Sturgesd sent large numbers of people after they gathered in small spaces and breathed each others spital sans masks all around the country when they went home so the locations of their outbreaks were national even more than local.




 True but most came from a handful of states.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> True but mist came from a handful of states.



maybe most... but








						Revved by Sturgis Rally, COVID-19 infections move fast, far
					

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) — The hundreds of thousands of bikers who attended the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally may have departed western South Dakota, but public health departments in multiple states are trying to measure how much and how quickly the coronavirus spread in bars, tattoo shops and...




					apnews.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> maybe most... but
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Revved by Sturgis Rally, COVID-19 infections move fast, far
> 
> 
> SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) — The hundreds of thousands of bikers who attended the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally may have departed western South Dakota, but public health departments in multiple states are trying to measure how much and how quickly the coronavirus spread in bars, tattoo shops and...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com




 Le suck. 

  Not 100% sure but a big difference with USA is fear and anxiety. 

 Due to social media and US pop culture dominance spreads around the world. 

Could be wrong but that's my theory.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

My great uncle died today of Covid-19. I had never met him, and know next to nothing about him, but it's still too close for comfort.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Garthanos said:


> I think your guess on timing is about right but I think another recently announced one (I have had my eye on the Moderna too) based on the same technology purports to require less extreme refrigeration





Yeah.  But it doesn't help the glassware problem.


----------



## Garthanos

AcererakTriple6 said:


> My great uncle died today of Covid-19. I had never met him, and know next to nothing about him, but it's still too close for comfort.



Sorry for your loss, I lost my 99 year old uncle (mine I knew but wasn't close to) recently to COVID too


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Le suck.
> Not 100% sure but a big difference with USA is fear and anxiety.
> Due to social media and US pop culture dominance spreads around the world.
> Could be wrong but that's my theory.



The culture seems the most infectious thing we have other than covid. In a culture where having healthcare is unguaranteed, and more people per capita are incarcerated than anywhere in the world and a major political party actually said their opposition will "kill god". Yeh there is fear in this here pond it is actively exploited too.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> The culture seems the most infectious thing we have other than covid. In a culture where having healthcare is unguaranteed, and more people per capita are incarcerated than anywhere in the world and a major political party actually said their opposition will "kill god". Yeh there is fear in this here pond it is actively exploited too.




 It's a recurring theme I've noticed in American expat videos. 

 Not the only ones I've noticed it elsewhere. Hard to describe it's like an edge or something.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> It's a recurring theme I've noticed in American expat videos.



We also have a fondness for happy endings if you are looking for cultural movie elements... for instance Harry Potter had too many dead Weasley Family members for most of the USA crowd.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> We also have a fondness for happy endings if you are looking for cultural movie elements... for instance Harry Potter had too many dead Weasley Family members for most of the USA crowd.




 Think I've seen a grand total of 1 Harry Potter film. 

 Our films tend towards politically Incorrect comedy or drama/social commentary. 

 Read: cheap.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Think I've seen a grand total of 1 Harry Potter film.
> 
> Our films tend towards politically Incorrect comedy or drama/social commentary.
> 
> Read: cheap.



So the explanation does not work as well as it might


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Think I've seen a grand total of 1 Harry Potter film.
> 
> Our films tend towards politically Incorrect comedy or drama/social commentary.
> 
> Read: cheap.



My point might be maybe the happy ending bit is hope ...over fear


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

In 2016, the US was considered to be one of the best prepared nations in the world for dealing with a pandemic in terms of personnel, plans, and stockpiles of various materials.

But something epidemiologists pointed out as one of our biggest weaknesses was the strong cultural trend towards *individuality*. And _that _got weaponized.


----------



## Hussar

Was watching a bit on the news about how Africa has responded so well to the pandemic.  They basically pointed to recent other outbreaks, and how pretty much every country already had infrastructure in place to deal with things.  All of Africa has had something like 40000 deaths.  That's pretty damn impressive.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> In a culture where having healthcare is unguaranteed, and more people per capita are incarcerated than anywhere in the world and a major political party actually said their opposition will "kill god".




*Mod Note:*

Dude.  Pretty blatant politics.  Not cool.


----------



## Maxperson

Hussar said:


> Was watching a bit on the news about how Africa has responded so well to the pandemic.  They basically pointed to recent other outbreaks, and how pretty much every country already had infrastructure in place to deal with things.  All of Africa has had something like 40000 deaths.  That's pretty damn impressive.



Scientists don't really know why Africa has fewer deaths.





__





						Science | AAAS
					






					www.sciencemag.org


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> Was watching a bit on the news about how Africa has responded so well to the pandemic.  They basically pointed to recent other outbreaks, and how pretty much every country already had infrastructure in place to deal with things.  All of Africa has had something like 40000 deaths.  That's pretty damn impressive.



Also of note, that death toll is in the context of outbreaks of even nastier diseases in some of those countries.  Instead of collapsing, they HANDLED it.

Pretty embarrassing for the USA.


----------



## Istbor

They definitely have to deal with the Ebola, so I am sure that helps a little with taking things seriously and having systems in place, or at least that mindset. 

They also have a pretty young population.


----------



## Not a Hobbit

Eh forget it. You're not worth it.


----------



## Istbor

Scott Powell said:


> Eh forget it. You're not worth it.



Weird flex...


----------



## Not a Hobbit

The comment was edited. But thanks.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Istbor said:


> They definitely have to deal with the Ebola, so I am sure that helps a little with taking things seriously and having systems in place, or at least that mindset.
> 
> They also have a pretty young population.



Plus Lassa fever and others, and also, a margin for error approaching zero.


----------



## Janx

I read a recent thread by a dude who got covid and wow.

Has it not occurred to folks that getting other people sick might be an actionable item in a court of law?

If you post hot-headed stuff on Nextdoor and shoot the kid who was stealing stuff from your car, you'll be nailed for pre-meditation.

If you post that you ignored precautions and don't care, it's just a matter of time before the contact tracers map out the path of the virus that killed somebody. There's gonna be a reckoning and the lawyers are gonna get rich.


----------



## Istbor

Scott Powell said:


> The comment was edited. But thanks.



No I saw the original. Still stands... weird...



Janx said:


> I read a recent thread by a dude who got covid and wow.
> 
> Has it not occurred to folks that getting other people sick might be an actionable item in a court of law?
> 
> If you post hot-headed stuff on Nextdoor and shoot the kid who was stealing stuff from your car, you'll be nailed for pre-meditation.
> 
> If you post that you ignored precautions and don't care, it's just a matter of time before the contact tracers map out the path of the virus that killed somebody. There's gonna be a reckoning and the lawyers are gonna get rich.




Let's hope it never comes to that. I also think that would be a hard thing to really prove and wouldn't really help the nation to heal.


----------



## Zardnaar

Janx said:


> I read a recent thread by a dude who got covid and wow.
> 
> Has it not occurred to folks that getting other people sick might be an actionable item in a court of law?
> 
> If you post hot-headed stuff on Nextdoor and shoot the kid who was stealing stuff from your car, you'll be nailed for pre-meditation.
> 
> If you post that you ignored precautions and don't care, it's just a matter of time before the contact tracers map out the path of the virus that killed somebody. There's gonna be a reckoning and the lawyers are gonna get rich.




Problem is proving who you got it from.

We've had a few 14 day sentences handed down for people doing runners from qurantine facilities. 

 You still have to do you 14 days in a catered 4 star hotel then you get another 14 days as a guest of her majesty in one of our fine incarceration facilities. God save the Queen!!!!

It's kinda voluntary. Don't want to do it don't come to NZ. Fairly simple.


----------



## Deset Gled

Istbor said:


> Let's hope it never comes to that. I also think that would be a hard thing to really prove and wouldn't really help the nation to heal.




I'm hoping it comes to that very soon.  Some people cannot be made to care about the wellbeing of others or to listen to reason.  But I believe a rather large percentage of those people would listen to "if your actions cause harm to someone it will cost you money or time in jail".  The nation cannot heal until the rot is removed.


----------



## Zardnaar

Deset Gled said:


> I'm hoping it comes to that very soon.  Some people cannot be made to care about the wellbeing of others or to listen to reason.  But I believe a rather large percentage of those people would listen to "if your actions cause harm to someone it will cost you money or time in jail".  The nation cannot heal until the rot is removed.




 What they've done in the past is just cut off funding to intransigent states. 

 "You can do what you want but so can we with the funding". 

 So they can't make an individual state do anything but the state can't force the feds to pay for stuff either.


----------



## Deset Gled

Zardnaar said:


> What they've done in the past is just cut off funding to intransigent states.
> 
> "You can do what you want but so can we with the funding".
> 
> So they can't make an individual state do anything but the state can't force the feds to pay for stuff either.



To avoid breaking the "no politics" rule, let's just say that federal funding is a little more complicated over here in the USA.


----------



## Bedrockgames

Theater of the mind by Discord or Skype has been working great for us during the pandemic.


----------



## Istbor

More familiar with Discord, and I can see the ability to easily post images and media as a handy feature in something like that.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Yeah, at least in the U.S., proving that a case of COVID came from a specific source well enough for a court of law would be a hard row to hoe.  Especially since erratic or effectively contrarian responses are so common.  Even if you can show that person X who you came in contact with had it, it'd probably be easy to question whether you had contact with two or twenty other people who had or could have had it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> Yeah, at least in the U.S., proving that a case of COVID came from a specific source well enough for a court of law would be a hard row to hoe.  Especially since erratic or effectively contrarian responses are so common.  Even if you can show that person X who you came in contact with had it, it'd probably be easy to question whether you had contact with two or twenty other people who had or could have had it.




 Yes you can't prove it even if it's the same strain and you have lab proof. 

  Borders closed so they're pushing internal tourism. Cheesy and cringy but it's pushing nostalgia buttons as well. 



 Not sure if others would laugh or cry. It's aimed at internally but some here might find it entertaining.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Even if you can’t prove a person is the source of another’s infection, the intentional or reckless spreading of disease is still an offense in most states.  And as I recall, all they gave to do is prove knowing disregard of the law- like firing a gun within city limits- without proving harm to an individual.

So all those people crowing in print, on the internet, radio or TV about how they won’t follow the rules have already opened themselves up for legal action if they ever test positive and don’t modify their behavior.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Even if you can’t prove a person is the source of another’s infection, the intentional or reckless spreading of disease is still an offense in most states.  And as I recall, all they gave to do is prove knowing disregard- like firing a gun within city limits- w




 Criminal or civil?

 I was thinking if they were getting sued for liability.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Criminal or civil?
> 
> I was thinking if they were getting sued for liability.



Civil has much easier proof standards at least here


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Criminal or civil?
> 
> I was thinking if they were getting sued for liability.



Both.

People have gone to jail for spreading venereal diseases, including HIV.  And Mary Mallon- aka Typhoid Mary- spent the last 30 years of her life confined to an island quarantine hospital for disregarding orders regarding her spreading of disease.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Both.
> 
> People have gone to jail for spreading venereal diseases, including HIV.  And Mary Mallon- aka Typhoid Mary- spent the last 30 years of her life confined to an island quarantine hospital for disregarding orders regarding her spreading of disease.




 Typhoid Mary was a long time ago. 

 USA in 1919 closed things and wore masks. 

 They knew the basics on social distancing as well.

 There were books published after the Spanish Flu that are still relevant now.


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> If you post that you ignored precautions and don't care, it's just a matter of time before the contact tracers map out the path of the virus that killed somebody. There's gonna be a reckoning and the lawyers are gonna get rich.




Oh, no.  Not at this point.  There's broad community spread.  Contact tracing is great for managing risk, but it is not conclusive for a court of law to eliminate reasonable doubt that you didn't get it elsewhere.

For this to hold up in court, I would imagine you'd need very specific circumstances - like, the victim had contact _only_ with the defendant.  They didn't go to the supermarket or drug store where someone else might have coughed or the like.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Oh, no.  Not at this point.  There's broad community spread.  Contact tracing is great for managing risk, but it is not conclusive for a court of law to eliminate reasonable doubt that you didn't get it elsewhere.
> 
> For this to hold up in court, I would imagine you'd need very specific circumstances - like, the victim had contact _only_ with the defendant.  They didn't go to the supermarket or drug store where someone else might have coughed or the like.



add a highly specific strain of the virus and we are talking


----------



## Zardnaar

Gah less than useful. I'm guessing pandemics weren't a big thing in 1990. 





__





						New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990 No 109 (as at 01 July 2013), Public Act – New Zealand Legislation
					






					www.legislation.govt.nz
				




Part 11. Part 13 and 14 also inconvenient. 

 Kinda wondered how the government got away with things in the war years and polio.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Gah less than useful. I'm guessing pandemics weren't a big thing in 1990.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990 No 109 (as at 01 July 2013), Public Act – New Zealand Legislation
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.legislation.govt.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Part 11. Part 13 and 14 also inconvenient.
> 
> Kinda wondered how the government got away with things in the war years and polio.



Well, the War Measures Act (or whatever name is used in a specific country) is all it takes to remove pretty much all your civil rights.  One emergency act of parliament and we become a totalitarian state.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> add a highly specific strain of the virus and we are talking




Or a very specific act, like, "He spat on my face, and told me he was giving me covid..."


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Well, the War Measures Act (or whatever name is used in a specific country) is all it takes to remove pretty much all your civil rights.  One emergency act of parliament and we become a totalitarian state.



 Yeah could theoretically be done.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Gah less than useful. I'm guessing pandemics weren't a big thing in 1990.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990 No 109 (as at 01 July 2013), Public Act – New Zealand Legislation
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.legislation.govt.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Part 11. Part 13 and 14 also inconvenient.
> 
> Kinda wondered how the government got away with things in the war years and polio.



This depends on how courts interpret things.

For one thing, section 15, on the _manifestation_ of belief is more inconvenient than 13 or 14 - which are just about what you say and think and believe.  15 covers actions.

But, Section 5 says, "_Subject to section 4, the rights and freedoms contained in this Bill of Rights may be subject only to such reasonable limits prescribed by law as can be demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society._"

Keeping lots of folks from dying (via moderate means like "wear a mask" and "stay at home for a while") is probably justified in a free and democratic society.  "And take this shot," may also be called for in such instances, as failing to do so infringes on the other guy's right to not get sick and die.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> This depends on how courts interpret things.
> 
> For one thing, section 15, on the _manifestation_ of belief is more inconvenient than 13 or 14 - which are just about what you say and think and believe.  15 covers actions.
> 
> But, Section 5 says, "_Subject to section 4, the rights and freedoms contained in this Bill of Rights may be subject only to such reasonable limits prescribed by law as can be demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society._"
> 
> Keeping lots of folks from dying (via moderate means like "wear a mask" and "stay at home for a while") is probably justified in a free and democratic society.  "And take this shot," may also be called for in such instances, as failing to do so infringes on the other guy's right to not get sick and die.




 Yeah it's a potential court case poo storm. 

 It's not like the US constitution but theoretically it can be changed by an act of parliment so you only need 51%.
If I think it was put in there for Jehovah Witnesses who don't believe in some things like blood transfusions.

They also don't vote and refuse to serve in the military so they're consistent I suppose.


----------



## NotAYakk

The good news: the world is on the cusp of beating a respiratory plague.  Two ~95% effective vaccines with nearly no side effects racing ahead, and many more on the way.

Watch this:

Quick testing is ramping up; using it at population-level might help.  It seemed to at that US university who tried it (2 tests per student/teacher per week, and normal classes).

The nose-spray that makes an animal model immune for ~24 hours is also interesting.

The sad news: the US great plains states are in deep trouble.

The bad news: Turns out covid 19 likes the fall/winter.  So places that don't want to surrender may have to go through another wave of lockdown to keep it under control.

Up here in Ontario, the number of cases is up, things aren't looking great for the fall/winter.

But when I go to a chart comparing us to US states, there is literally 1 US state with fewer cases than us (Hawaii) per capita.

Manitoba just made selling non-essential goods inside a store a crime.  They border the US great plains, and supply chains cross the (otherwise mostly closed) border.  But with the Dakotas playing "I think we can kill more people with Covid-19 than Manhatten did" chicken right over the international border, I'm worried about my relatives there.

Nationally, apparently Canada pre-bought more doses of vaccine per capita than any other country in the world.  Go us I guess.  National health-care system plus a dumpster fire just south of the border.

---

Gaming continues online.  I had some fun making every PC a heroforge screenshot.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Or a very specific act, like, "He spat on my face, and told me he was giving me covid..."



Given the unreliability of witnesses a video there of.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> The good news: the world is on the cusp of beating a respiratory plague.  Two ~95% effective vaccines with nearly no side effects racing ahead, and many more on the way.
> 
> Watch this:
> 
> Quick testing is ramping up; using it at population-level might help.  It seemed to at that US university who tried it (2 tests per student/teacher per week, and normal classes).
> 
> The nose-spray that makes an animal model immune for ~24 hours is also interesting.
> 
> The sad news: the US great plains states are in deep trouble.
> 
> The bad news: Turns out covid 19 likes the fall/winter.  So places that don't want to surrender may have to go through another wave of lockdown to keep it under control.
> 
> Up here in Ontario, the number of cases is up, things aren't looking great for the fall/winter.
> 
> But when I go to a chart comparing us to US states, there is literally 1 US state with fewer cases than us (Hawaii) per capita.
> 
> Manitoba just made selling non-essential goods inside a store a crime.  They border the US great plains, and supply chains cross the (otherwise mostly closed) border.  But with the Dakotas playing "I think we can kill more people with Covid-19 than Manhatten did" chicken right over the international border, I'm worried about my relatives there.
> 
> Nationally, apparently Canada pre-bought more doses of vaccine per capita than any other country in the world.  Go us I guess.  National health-care system plus a dumpster fire just south of the border.
> 
> ---
> 
> Gaming continues online.  I had some fun making every PC a heroforge screenshot.




 Ouch. I think we orebought 1.5 million doses and pumped money into 3 of the vaccine candidates. 

 Light at the end if the tunnel, economy performing better than expected along with government debt.

 South Dakota. 









						South Dakota is grappling with the nation's highest positivity rate. This Covid-19 widow wants a mask mandate
					

Chris and John Bjorkman bought their home in De Smet, South Dakota, less than a year ago. The couple, who celebrated their 39th anniversary last June, thought they would spend the rest of their lives together on the idyllic land, home to the "Little House on the Prairie" Laura Ingalls homestead.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

And a restaurant worker in Nebraska got fired for violating company policy of posting video on social media of what happened during her shift- in this case, their governor (maskless) wandering around gladhanding & doing photo ops with anyone who wanted a keepsake of the encounter.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/19/pete-ricketts-maskless-video-fired/
		


She absolutely violated company policy, but in the light of the realities of the pandemic, does not regret her actions.  I predict there will be a GoFundMe check headed her way.

I _also _expect this story won’t die quickly, seeing as how Gov. Ricketts & his wife were exposed to COVID on the 10th, and were supposed to be quarantining until the 22nd. 








						Nebraska Gov. Ricketts and first lady exposed to coronavirus
					

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts and first lady Susanne Shore have gone into quarantine after both were exposed to a person with the coronavirus, the governor's spokesman announced...




					apnews.com


----------



## MoonSong

Ok, last night the official record of deaths in my country finally reached 100k. Mind you this doesn't include the 20k+ deaths they admitted not counting a few weeks back. Or the 206k+ deaths that some estimates do...


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And a restaurant worker in Nebraska got fired for violating company policy of posting video on social media of what happened during her shift- in this case, their governor (maskless) wandering around gladhanding & doing photo ops with anyone who wanted a keepsake of the encounter.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/19/pete-ricketts-maskless-video-fired/
> 
> 
> 
> She absolutely violated company policy, but in the light of the realities of the pandemic, does not regret her actions.  I predict there will be a GoFundMe check headed her way.
> 
> I _also _expect this story won’t die quickly, seeing as how Gov. Ricketts & his wife were exposed to COVID on the 10th, and were supposed to be quarantining until the 22nd.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nebraska Gov. Ricketts and first lady exposed to coronavirus
> 
> 
> OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts and first lady Susanne Shore have gone into quarantine after both were exposed to a person with the coronavirus, the governor's spokesman announced...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com




Ricketts is an anti-science one in general he was offering the university scientists funding if they avoided and or ignored evidence supporting climate change.... the university in not so few of words said ahem "no"

I am from Nebraska


----------



## Garthanos

MoonSong said:


> Ok, last night the official record of deaths in my country finally reached 100k. Mind you this doesn't include the 20k+ deaths they admitted not counting a few weeks back. Or the 206k+ deaths that some estimates do...



expected deaths this year compared to previous years may be the most accurate measure (the decrease in flu deaths due make even that a low estimate)

The US basically has half again more Covid19 deaths than typically estimated.


----------



## MoonSong

Garthanos said:


> expected deaths this year compared to previous years may be the most accurate measure (the decrease in flu deaths due make even that a low estimate)
> 
> The US basically has half again more Covid19 deaths than typically estimated.



It is more complicated than just excess deaths. We have to discount collateral deaths. Like people who died because they lost their job, or insurance, or couldn't get medical treatment because of triage or a shortage of medical supplies.


----------



## Garthanos

MoonSong said:


> It is more complicated than just excess deaths. We have to discount collateral deaths. Like people who died because they lost their job, or insurance, or couldn't get medical treatment because of triage or a shortage of medical supplies.



Deaths because they couldn't get treatment because of the medical system being overwhelmed I would say is very much caused by the disease (amalgamated with really poor response to the disease) the death count would be lower if it was never over-whelmed... ie there are definitely complexities but we are undoubtedly under estimated regardless really poor testing being the obvious reason.


----------



## Zardnaar

Border qurantine costing 2.4 million dollars a day. 

 Still cheaper than lockdowns and/or having economy melt down. 










						Managed isolation, quarantine costing $2.4m a day, figures show
					

Managed isolation and quarantine is costing about $2.4 million a day, figures released to RNZ show, and Cabinet is due to consider long-term funding options before the end of the year.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> Deaths because they couldn't get treatment because of the medical system being overwhelmed I would say is very much caused by the disease




In a sort of moral sense, perhaps.  When we total up the human cost after this is over, yes.  In the same way that refugees who don't die by violence are still part of the human cost of a war.

But, when you are talking medically, in terms of what you have to actually do to stop this disease, no, definitely not.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> But, when you are talking medically, in terms of what you have to actually do to stop this disease, no, definitely not.



When you are talking about the urgency of stopping the disease definitely so.


----------



## Zardnaar

Bali not doing so good. 

 Estimated 80% unemployment and starvation.









						Covid-19: Bali faces its biggest crisis as coronavirus leaves hundreds starving
					

The Indonesian island is reeling. People are starving, unable to pay the bills, and afford essentials. 80% are believed to be unemployed.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Lebanon also looking very grim. Multiple reasons there Covid and explosion being final straw.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> When you are talking about the urgency of stopping the disease definitely so.




_Maybe_ so.  In terms of getting through to a person who _doesn't want_ to accept your point, someone who is looking for any excuse to not believe you, it can very much look like you are trying to pad the numbers.  It gives them a point to argue on, a wedge they can stick in your presentation that allows them to feel justified in dismissing you entirely.

A better approach is "these X people are killed by the virus (in a direct biological sense) and these Y people are killed by the ancillary effects of our being in a pandemic (the healthcare system being overloaded, folks losing jobs/insurance, folks avoiding health care, etc)."


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Always be situationally aware.  Read the room so you can tailor your argument to suit the needs of your audience.


----------



## Cadence

100k.  New high score.  








						Coronavirus (COVID-19) Hospitalizations
					

On this page, we provide daily-updated data on hospitalizations and intensive care (ICU) admissions due to COVID-19. Our hospital & ICU data is collected from official sources and collated by Our World in Data. The complete list of country-by-country sources is available on GitHub.




					ourworldindata.org


----------



## Umbran

Yeah.  The holiday season is going to be ugly this year.


----------



## Thomas Shey

And the full impact of Thanksgiving hasn't even hit yet, most likely.


----------



## MarkB

Umbran said:


> Yeah.  The holiday season is going to be ugly this year.



Having the first vaccine approved in the UK before Christmas seemed like great timing, but I'm starting to think it's the opposite. It won't be rolled out in sufficient volumes to cover much of the country before next year, but the fact that it's now "here" is likely to mean that people abandon even the reduced level of precautions they would have taken over the holiday.


----------



## Thomas Shey

MarkB said:


> Having the first vaccine approved in the UK before Christmas seemed like great timing, but I'm starting to think it's the opposite. It won't be rolled out in sufficient volumes to cover much of the country before next year, but the fact that it's now "here" is likely to mean that people abandon even the reduced level of precautions they would have taken over the holiday.




This seems depressingly possible.


----------



## Umbran

Correct.  

Imagine that on Thanksgiving day, there's a wave of people being exposed.

On average, folks exposed will start to show symptoms 5 days after exposure.  (It is a wide range - 2 to 14 days).  They'll start being contagious... basically this week and into next week (a couple days before they might show symptoms.


----------



## Zardnaar

Getting close to 9/11 every day numbers.


----------



## Umbran

MarkB said:


> Having the first vaccine approved in the UK before Christmas seemed like great timing, but I'm starting to think it's the opposite.




I believe all the current vaccines we are looking at have a two-dose regimen, and it also takes time after the second dose for immunity to become established.  I think it is supposed to be about six weeks from injection to reliable protection (I should double check on that).  So, to be protected or X-mas, you'd probably have needed to have gotten the shot in mid-November.

Here in the US, they are talking about rolling out to health care and elderly first, expanding to less at-risk populations as time goes on.  The population at large may be getting protected in mid to late spring?


----------



## Thomas Shey

And from what I understand, its not even entirely clear that the vaccines are producing immunity per se; its clear they've had very good results at completely suppressing symptoms, but its not equally clear whether the beneficiaries can't still be shedding virii.

I'd also be shocked whether most of the U.S. population (not counting those who resist) will be getting innoculated before--May?  Possibly even a little later.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> And from what I understand, its not even entirely clear that the vaccines are producing immunity per se; its clear they've had very good results at completely suppressing symptoms, but its not equally clear whether the beneficiaries can't still be shedding virii.
> 
> I'd also be shocked whether most of the U.S. population (not counting those who resist) will be getting innoculated before--May?  Possibly even a little later.




 From March iirc. First vaccines this month there will only be a few million though.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> From March iirc. First vaccines this month there will only be a few million though.




Which is why I said "most".


----------



## MarkB

Umbran said:


> Here in the US, they are talking about rolling out to health care and elderly first, expanding to less at-risk populations as time goes on.  The population at large may be getting protected in mid to late spring?



That's what they're aiming for here too, but the only vaccine approved so far in the UK is the Pfizer one, and the need for extreme refrigeration is imposing some logistical problems when it comes to distribution. We'll have to see how fast it can be rolled out.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Cadence said:


> 100k.  New high score.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus (COVID-19) Hospitalizations
> 
> 
> On this page, we provide daily-updated data on hospitalizations and intensive care (ICU) admissions due to COVID-19. Our hospital & ICU data is collected from official sources and collated by Our World in Data. The complete list of country-by-country sources is available on GitHub.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ourworldindata.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 129520



Gosh, America is so screwed. I wish we would just social distance. I have. I feel like I'm back in school doing a team project, but I'm the only kid in the team project doing any work. Except, this is a life-death situation, which makes it even more depressing and infuriating.

(I know other people are doing the same things I am, but not nearly enough people who are doing what they should be.)


----------



## Garthanos

MarkB said:


> That's what they're aiming for here too, but the only vaccine approved so far in the UK is the Pfizer one, and the need for extreme refrigeration is imposing some logistical problems when it comes to distribution. We'll have to see how fast it can be rolled out.



The non-pfizer ones are so far not quite reporting the effectiveness of the pfizer one.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Garthanos said:


> The non-pfizer ones are so far not quite reporting the effectiveness of the pfizer one.



Moderna, you mean?


----------



## Garthanos

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Gosh, America is so screwed. I wish we would just social distance. I have. I feel like I'm back in school doing a team project, but I'm the only kid in the team project that did any work. Except, this is a life-death situation, which makes it even more depressing and infuriating.
> 
> (I know other people are doing the same things I am, but not nearly enough people who are doing what they should be.)



Great analogy


----------



## Garthanos

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Moderna, you mean?



No I think Moderna is similar tech as Pfizer with a similar limit...


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Moderna, you mean?




 There's a UK one as well. And Sputnik of course.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

See, this is why the US is calling it operation warp speed.

It has two parts. First, the vaccine.

Then, a time machine so we can go back in time and vaccinate people before, um, the virus came. Because it takes a while to administer the vaccine, and it's usually two parts. 

Okay, we need a third part.

We also need to go back in time before they need to be vaccinated in order to educate people so that they don't refuse vaccines. Because we can't have a large number of objectors, given that the vaccines aren't 100% effective. Not to mention that with a two-part vaccine that has some side effects, a lot of people might not show up for a second dose.


Ugh. We just need better people.


----------



## Thomas Shey

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Moderna, you mean?




There's also Astra-Zeneca and the Chinese vaccine.  Theoretically Sputnik, too, but I'm not sure anyone trusts that one at all.


----------



## Zardnaar

Snarf Zagyg said:


> See, this is why the US is calling it operation warp speed.
> 
> It has two parts. First, the vaccine.
> 
> Then, a time machine so we can go back in time and vaccinate people before, um, the virus came. Because it takes a while to administer the vaccine, and it's usually two parts.
> 
> Okay, we need a third part.
> 
> We also need to go back in time before they need to be vaccinated in order to educate people so that they don't refuse vaccines. Because we can't have a large number of objectors, given that the vaccines aren't 100% effective. Not to mention that with a two-part vaccine that has some side effects, a lot of people might not show up for a second dose.
> 
> 
> Ugh. We just need better people.




 This is why I became a cynic in the 90's. 

 When people do the right thing you get a pleasant surprise. When they don't you avoid the disappointed. 

 I don't really get disappointed much.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> There's also Astra-Zeneca and the Chinese vaccine.  Theoretically Sputnik, too, but I'm not sure anyone trusts that one at all.




 Got some Russian posters on another thread. They're going to take Sputnik just not first in line. 

 Also jokes about volunteering and "Russian volunteering".


----------



## Cadence

My optimistic bound is most things open in the US by start of June.  My pessimistic is everything open by end of June but 50% of the folks won't have bothered with the vaccine and all of the lawsuits will be about whether schools and employers can require it.



Garthanos said:


> No I think Moderna is similar tech as Pfizer with a similar limit...



I believe moderna can survive in a normal freezer for 30 days.


----------



## Cadence

For the US, one of the things that hasn't gotten as much comment as I thought it might in the media are officer and related deaths from COVID 19.  I wonder what the overlap is of those who think COVID numbers are inflated/hoax in general and those who generally have pro-officer things at the top of their agenda.  (There were 130 total deaths through November last year; 2 of the ones below are December this year.  Numbers from odmp.org ).


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> And from what I understand, its not even entirely clear that the vaccines are producing immunity per se; its clear they've had very good results at completely suppressing symptoms, but its not equally clear whether the beneficiaries can't still be shedding virii.




So, because biology is incredibly complicated, we need to talk about the difference between infection, and disease.   In many North American bat populations, infection with the virus that causes rabies is endemic - pretty much every bat you come across is likely to be infected.  However, bats _show no symptoms_ of rabies. 

If we want to be picky (and here, it pays to be so), the disease is not the infection, but a collection of symptoms - often called a "syndrome" - caused by that infection.  The virus we are dealing with is SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2), and the disease is covid-19 (Coronavirus Disease - 2019).  So, technically speaking, we can talk about immunity to infection, and immunity to the disease separately.

The basic test for efficacy of a vaccine is a test for whether you get the disease.  The vaccine typically manages this by reducing the viral load down to levels such that it cannot cause disease.  This usually means that your viral load is also low enough that you cannot effectively transmit the virus.  The fact of the matter is that it is terribly uncommon for a vaccine to make you immune to the disease, but also infectious. 

However, when a scientist says something is "not entirely clear" that usually means they haven't _SPECIFICALLY_ tested that scenario, which would require an entirely different testing regimen.   So, the scientist, being totally truthful, can't tell you for absolute certainty that you aren't shedding virus, because they've been busy testing whether it will make you sick.  The fact that they haven't tested that specific issue does not mean there's any real concern around it in terms of the health benefits of the vaccine.


----------



## Garthanos

Thomas Shey said:


> There's also Astra-Zeneca and the Chinese vaccine.  Theoretically Sputnik, too, but I'm not sure anyone trusts that one at all.



Astra Zeneca was the one I was thinking of  


Cadence said:


> I believe moderna can survive in a normal freezer for 30 days.



I thought it took higher freezing rates too but that is good to read (I verified)


----------



## billd91

MarkB said:


> Having the first vaccine approved in the UK before Christmas seemed like great timing, but I'm starting to think it's the opposite. It won't be rolled out in sufficient volumes to cover much of the country before next year, but the fact that it's now "here" is likely to mean that people abandon even the reduced level of precautions they would have taken over the holiday.



That's been going through my mind as well. And I'd be a lot more worried about it if it weren't for the fact that about half the US seems to have defaulted to a "eff it" attitude already. It seems hard to imagine we haven't hit bottom yet, though I suppose there's always a chance that we hit bottom and start digging.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Okay, we need a third part.




Profit!


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Okay, we need a third part.



I thought the third part was this:


Snarf Zagyg said:


> We just need better people.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> So, because biology is incredibly complicated, we need to talk about the difference between infection, and disease.   In many North American bat populations, infection with the virus that causes rabies is endemic - pretty much every bat you come across is likely to be infected.  However, bats _show no symptoms_ of rabies.
> 
> If we want to be picky (and here, it pays to be so), the disease is not the infection, but a collection of symptoms - often called a "syndrome" - caused by that infection.  The virus we are dealing with is SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2), and the disease is covid-19 (Coronavirus Disease - 2019).  So, technically speaking, we can talk about immunity to infection, and immunity to the disease separately.
> 
> The basic test for efficacy of a vaccine is a test for whether you get the disease.  The vaccine typically manages this by reducing the viral load down to levels such that it cannot cause disease.  This usually means that your viral load is also low enough that you cannot effectively transmit the virus.  The fact of the matter is that it is terribly uncommon for a vaccine to make you immune to the disease, but also infectious.
> 
> However, when a scientist says something is "not entirely clear" that usually means they haven't _SPECIFICALLY_ tested that scenario, which would require an entirely different testing regimen.   So, the scientist, being totally truthful, can't tell you for absolute certainty that you aren't shedding virus, because they've been busy testing whether it will make you sick.  The fact that they haven't tested that specific issue does not mean there's any real concern around it in terms of the health benefits of the vaccine.



Yes, so it is very likely that 95% immunity to the *disease* will lead to a large amount of reduction in *passing the disease on* to other people.

Covid 19 seems to have a large variation in its spreading.  Most people spread the disease to 1 or fewer people.  Some people spread it to 10, 100 or even 1000 people directly.  Those "super spreaders" *seem* to have driven the early part of the spread.  Take SK, where a single person was responsible for the entire 2nd wave of disease.

Suppose the disease is 50% likely to make you nearly completely non-infectious, and 90% likely to prevent you from being a super-spreader.

Toss on modest amounts of public mask use, and the disease could wipe itself out pretty quickly, even before universal inoculation.

(of course, the disease could also mutate in response to this huge selection pressure, so we aren't out of the woods yet).

---

The best thing coming out of this is that we now know how to make a vaccine from genetic data in under a year.  And for at least a while, funding that kind of infrastructure will be in vogue.

Covid-19 could have been smallpox bad (clean-field smallpox has an insane fatality rate; entire civilizations where wiped out by it), and we can still run into a smallpox-bad disease in the future.  The ability to turn vaccinations around rapidly will have high value.

As a toy model, if we assume that the chance of an epidemic starting is roughly proportional to the number of people alive times the time they are alive (ie, each minute of the day, everyone has roughly the same chance of being patient zero for a new epidemic).  We can check this model against "lesser" epidemics we have spotted over the last few decades (SARS-1, MERS, various flus).  Then we can expect our highly interconnected world plus huge population will lead to new epidemics with higher frequency.

I read some SF about a post-antibotics future.  In it, populations where sessile and defensive, not allowing people to move around, in order to block disease vectors.  You'd trade, but you'd trade with sterilized stuff.

Biotech can help us avoid that future.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Cadence said:


> My optimistic bound is most things open in the US by start of June.  My pessimistic is everything open by end of June but 50% of the folks won't have bothered with the vaccine and all of the lawsuits will be about whether schools and employers can require it.




It might be an open question with employers, but Jacobson v. Massachusetts seems to suggest it can be done by the state, and that was with a vaccine a lot more dangerous than these likely are.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> It might be an open question with employers, but Jacobson v. Massachusetts seems to suggest it can be done by the state, and that was with a vaccine a lot more dangerous than these likely are.



 Employment law and things like access to healthcare can be used to pressure people. 

  Health and safety workplace law. Alit of human rights only apply in your private life. 

 Basically you can wear what you want for example but your boss can make you wear safety equipment or fire your ass. 

 Sure you don't have to wear it but they don't have to employ you either. 

 Also outside of various categories the boss can legally discriminate against you for all sorts of stupid reasons. 

 They don't like the colour of your shoes tough luck. No Covid vaccination tough luck. 

  Apply that logic to things like childcare, schooling, access to benefits, healthcare etc they can do a fair bit of legal arm twisting.

 Someone posted an old polio vaccination thing from the 1960s on Reddit. Basically you didn't get a choice.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> Employment law and things like access to healthcare can be used to pressure people.
> 
> Health and safety workplace law. Alit of human rights only apply in your private life.
> 
> Basically you can wear what you want for example but your boss can make you wear safety equipment or fire your ass.
> 
> Sure you don't have to wear it but they don't have to employ you either.
> 
> Also outside of various categories the boss can legally discriminate against you for all sorts of stupid reasons.
> 
> They don't like the colour of your shoes tough luck. No Covid vaccination tough luck.
> 
> Apply that logic to things like childcare, schooling, access to benefits, healthcare etc they can do a fair bit of legal arm twisting.
> 
> Someone posted an old polio vaccination thing from the 1960s on Reddit. Basically you didn't get a choice.




That's likely the legal case I referenced.  

And honestly, health-related rules make a hell of a lot more sense than half of what employers are allowed to do.  Its just that when its "You have to take this injection which can entirely possibly have some effect on some parts of the populace" it gets...sticky.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> That's likely the legal case I referenced.
> 
> And honestly, health-related rules make a hell of a lot more sense than half of what employers are allowed to do.  Its just that when its "You have to take this injection which can entirely possibly have some effect on some parts of the populace" it gets...sticky.




 Yeah the constitution doesn't seem to state one way or another and USA is fairly pro employer so it depends on how many corporations want to do that and court cases. 

  There's a few work around here and it's easy enough to change the law theoretically anyway if the "if but"  doesn't hold up.


----------



## Hussar

Just saw this one come across my feed a few days ago.  Sheesh.  For those who aren't Canadian, CSIS is our version of the CIA.









						CSIS accuses Russia, China and Iran of spreading COVID-19 disinformation - National | Globalnews.ca
					

The pandemic has 'deepened fissures between authoritarian states and Western liberal democracies,' a declassified CSIS report said.




					globalnews.ca


----------



## Goliath Coins

Obviously I hope the vaccine is effective and saves many lives.  But from just a gamer's view (which is very small in perspective in the scheme of people's lives), I hope it allows Gen Con to happen this year.


----------



## ccs

Mythic Nation said:


> Obviously I hope the vaccine is effective and saves many lives.  But from just a gamer's view (which is very small in perspective in the scheme of people's lives), I hope it allows Gen Con to happen this year.




And if I can't attend GC?  Then I hope that it's because they canceled it, not that I was unable to attend or felt it an unwise trip.  That way my unbroken attendance streak remains unbroken.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

As I understand, the Pfizer vaccine requires super-cold refrigeration, Moderna’s can be stored in medical refrigerator temps, but AstraZenica’s can be kept in standard refrigeration systems.  Possibly even a run of the mill ice chest.

If hat gives AZ’s vaccine a significant advantage in portability to rural areas. Some counties here in Texas don’t have a single MD, and the nearest medical facilities are over 250 miles away.

Now imagine trying to vaccinate people outside of first-world nations. 

Ultimately, that could make it the most important of the three for fighting the pandemic globally.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> As I understand, the Pfizer vaccine requires super-cold refrigeration, Moderna’s can be stored in medical refrigerator temps, but AstraZenica’s can be kept in standard refrigeration systems.  Possibly even a run of the mill ice chest.
> 
> If hat gives AZ’s vaccine a significant advantage in portability to rural areas. Some counties here in Texas don’t have a single MD, and the nearest medical facilities are over 250 miles away.
> 
> Now imagine trying to vaccinate people outside of first-world nations.
> 
> Ultimately, that could make it the most important of the three for fighting the pandemic globally.




 There's a town in Texas up near Oklahoma and it's 800 miles from anywhere iirc. Saw a video about vaccine logistics. Might be 800 miles from Houston or Dallas.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

I dearly miss going to cons, but figure that all the cons in the first half of next year are right out. Gen Con is a possibility, but still a slim one. Too many people are too invested in not following safety measures and science, alas.



Mythic Nation said:


> Obviously I hope the vaccine is effective and saves many lives.  But from just a gamer's view (which is very small in perspective in the scheme of people's lives), I hope it allows Gen Con to happen this year.


----------



## MarkB

Ralif Redhammer said:


> I dearly miss going to cons, but figure that all the cons in the first half of next year are right out. Gen Con is a possibility, but still a slim one. Too many people are too invested in not following safety measures and science, alas.



Plus, gaming conventions couldn't be a much more ideal environment for the proliferation and spreading of a cold/flu-like virus if they had been scientifically designed for that purpose.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Might be 800 miles from Houston or Dallas.




Texas is big, sure, but even it has its limits - 801 miles long, and 773 miles wide.  The only way to be that far from a major city in Texas is to not be in Texas.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Texas is big, sure, but even it has its limits - 801 miles long, and 773 miles wide.  The only way to be that far from a major city in Texas is to not be in Texas.




 Yeah may have been kilometres. It's right up near the oklahoma panhandle. 

 Article was about vaccine distribution.

 Can't find the article but it was this county. 









						Lipscomb County, Texas - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Yeah may have been kilometres. It's right up near the oklahoma panhandle.
> 
> Article was about vaccine distribution.




And yes, there are remote places in Texas.  But it isn't like Houston and Dallas are the only cities in the state.  You've got Amarillo and Lubbock up in the panhandle, and they're both 200K and more in population.  Sure, they aren't NYC or Chicago, but they aren't chopped liver, either.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

#4071 
Looks like the D/FW Metroplex is slated to get @250,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine by mid-December. That’s enough to vaccinate about 1/60th of the area’s population. Right now, they’re hammering out who will be first in line.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> And yes, there are remote places in Texas.  But it isn't like Houston and Dallas are the only cities in the state.  You've got Amarillo and Lubbock up in the panhandle, and they're both 200K and more in population.  Sure, they aren't NYC or Chicago, but they aren't chopped liver, either.




 Bigger than where I live it's only 120k. 

 I like small places as well always worth a look.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A survey of epidemiologists had some interesting answers.









						How 700 Epidemiologists Are Living Now, and What They Think Is Next
					

Even with coronavirus vaccines on the way, many epidemiologists do not expect their lives to return to pre-pandemic normal until most Americans are vaccinated. In the meantime, most have eased up on some precautions -- now going to the grocery store or seeing friends outdoors, for example -- but...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> #4071
> Looks like the D/FW Metroplex is slated to get @250,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine by mid-December. That’s enough to vaccinate about 1/60th of the area’s population. Right now, they’re hammering out who will be first in line.




As of Dec. 1, the CDC recommendation is: "_When a COVID-19 vaccine is authorized by FDA and recommended by ACIP, vaccination in the initial phase of the COVID-19 vaccination program (Phase 1a) should be offered to both 1) healthcare personnel and 2) residents of long-term care facilities._"


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> As of Dec. 1, the CDC recommendation is: "_When a COVID-19 vaccine is authorized by FDA and recommended by ACIP, vaccination in the initial phase of the COVID-19 vaccination program (Phase 1a) should be offered to both 1) healthcare personnel and 2) residents of long-term care facilities._"



Right, but they also have to sort out WHICH personnel & residents will be first.  After all, as someone on another board pointed out, he is a healthcare professional who already had COVID-19.  

OTOH, people have reportedly gotten it twice, and we still don’t know how long post-infection immunity lasts.

Given all that, he was questioning whether he even needed a vaccination _at this point.  Does he need to be among the first?_

Plus, we might have over 125k people who are healthcare workers or in long-term care.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Texas is big, sure, but even it has its limits - 801 miles long, and 773 miles wide.  The only way to be that far from a major city in Texas is to not be in Texas.




Yeah, Houston is only something like 1500 miles from _Los Angeles_.


----------



## NotAYakk

Canada's vaccine priority rules (advice, as healthcare is provincial).

It is amusing to hear people talk about how small Texas is.  And "remote" is also funny.  I bet those remote communities have roads that reach most of the way to them that can be driven most of the year!

So Canada is going to boost the priority of remote communities for vaccination, because remote means remote up here.


----------



## Hussar

Here in Japan, they just announced that all vaccinations will be 100% free.  But, yeah, they're still working out the order of battle, same as everywhere else.

Makes sense.  Long term care workers and the highest at risk are first in line.  I mean, to be honest, I can wait.  It's not like the world will end if I don't teach English tomorrow.


----------



## Eltab

Mythic Nation said:


> Obviously I hope the vaccine is effective and saves many lives.  But from just a gamer's view (which is very small in perspective in the scheme of people's lives), I hope it allows Gen Con to happen this year.



And all the other Cons !

In no small part, because people no longer fear being around each other.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Here in Japan, they just announced that all vaccinations will be 100% free.




That is the stated intent of the incoming administration here in the US as well.


----------



## Eltab

Hussar said:


> Here in Japan, they just announced that all vaccinations will be 100% free.  But, yeah, they're still working out the order of battle, same as everywhere else.
> 
> Makes sense.  Long term care workers and the highest at risk are first in line.  I mean, to be honest, I can wait.  It's not like the world will end if I don't teach English tomorrow.



I can "go second" (or third or hundredth or ...) because I already had it and so expect to fight off other encounters with Virus before reaching 'contagious' stage.  And because I am middle aged so other people are more fragile than me; they can step ahead In line.


----------



## Luminous

This thread isn't talking about D&D anymore...


----------



## Luminous

Umbran said:


> "215,000 people are dead, Dad.  It is the third biggest killer in the country this year - heart disease, cancer, then covid-19. Wear the damned mask."



I absolutely care about people's lives. And since this _obviously_ isn't working, we should be looking for a different solution than wearing _the damned mask_.


----------



## Luminous

Can I tell a secret?


Spoiler: Secret






Spoiler: Very Secret






Spoiler: Incredibly Secret






Spoiler: There's nothing wrong with saying it, I should have free speech.



I have never worn a mask, this entire time, this entire pandemic. I've gone about my daily life. And nobody's told me not to. I can walk into a restaurant, into a doctor's office, into the theater, into the park. And I'm fine, just like everyone else I brush past.
Once, I had it. And I have never had it since.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Luminous said:


> I absolutely care about people's lives. And since this _obviously_ isn't working, we should be looking for a different solution than wearing _the damned mask_.



It would be working better if more than 50% of Americans were actually wear them, socially distanced, and washed their hands. 

See Japan.  As mentioned more than once in this thread, they have an older population, a higher population density, their lockdowns were not as broad and were largely voluntary.  By those facts, you’d expect them to be worse off than we are.

Instead, our death rate was @30x higher than theirs.

Why?  Because their masking rate is over 90% and their population takes hand-washing seriously.

No joke- before the *astounding* Pfizer and Moderna vaccine efficacy results were announced, leaders of the CDC & other organizations told us that masks at @70% reduction rates would likely remain more effective than any vaccine from a public health perspective.  And that’s _still_ mostly true.

As for looking for other solutions...what do you think the global drive for vaccines and therapies is all about?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Luminous said:


> Can I tell a secret?
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Secret
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Very Secret
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Incredibly Secret
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: There's nothing wrong with saying it, I should have free speech.
> 
> 
> 
> I have never worn a mask, this entire time, this entire pandemic. I've gone about my daily life. And nobody's told me not to. I can walk into a restaurant, into a doctor's office, into the theater, into the park. And I'm fine, just like everyone else I brush past.
> Once, I had it. And I have never had it since.



Now we know who to suspect is hiding a bite in a zombie apocalypse scenario.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It would be working better if more than 50% of Americans were actually wear them, socially distanced, and washed their hands.
> 
> See Japan.  As mentioned more than once in this thread, they have an older population, a higher population density, their lockdowns were not as broad and were largely voluntary.  By those facts, you’d expect them to be worse off than we are.
> 
> Instead, our death rate was @30x higher than theirs.
> 
> Why?  Because their masking rate is over 90% and their population takes hand-washing seriously.
> 
> No joke- before the *astounding* Pfizer and Moderna vaccine efficacy results were announced, leaders of the CDC & other organizations told us that masks at @70% reduction rates would likely remain more effective than any vaccine from a public health perspective.  And that’s _still_ mostly true.
> 
> As for looking for other solutions...what do you think the global drive for vaccines and therapies is all abou




 In lockdown 1.0 you couldn't get masks so social distancing was used. 

 But yeah if in USA I would be using them assuming they're available.


----------



## Umbran

Luminous said:


> I absolutely care about people's lives. And since this _obviously_ isn't working, we should be looking for a different solution than wearing _the damned mask_.




The fact of the matter is that, when people do wear the masks, it does work.  It has failed as a strategy because some people refuse to cooperate, and actively undermine the strategy.  These people are actively taking part in activities that put their friends and neighbors and coworkers in danger.  

And, we _ARE_ looking for other solutions.  There are vaccines coming.  But the research takes time.  The manufacturing and distribution takes time.  The masks are the thing we can do in the short term to keep people from dying.

You quoted a post of mine, in which I noted that 215,000 people were dead.  That was 3 weeks ago.  The dead now number 279,000.  So.. TWENTY THOUSAND PEOPLE EACH WEEK have died.

You can wear the damn mask.



Luminous said:


> "There's nothing wrong with saying it, I should have free speech."




The guarantees of freedom of speech are protections from the government.  Not the judgement of your peers, in private spaces.  You can say it - but others are just as free to tell you that you're being an idiot.

And, so there's no misunderstanding - this is a line you haven't crossed yet, but you should know as this is your first day - Morrus owns the place, and he has no patience for pandemic misinformation.  



Luminous said:


> I have never worn a mask, this entire time, this entire pandemic. I've gone about my daily life. And nobody's told me not to. I can walk into a restaurant, into a doctor's office, into the theater, into the park. And I'm fine, just like everyone else I brush past.
> Once, I had it. And I have never had it since.




How nice for you.  I don't expect you'll want to hear what the statistical repercussions of those behaviors were.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> The fact of the matter is that, when people do wear the masks, it does work.  It has failed as a strategy because some people refuse to cooperate, and actively undermine the strategy.  These people are actively taking part in activities that put their friends and neighbors and coworkers in danger.
> 
> And, we _ARE_ looking for other solutions.  There are vaccines coming.  But the research takes time.  The manufacturing and distribution takes time.  The masks are the thing we can do in the short term to keep people from dying.
> 
> You quoted a post of mine, in which I noted that 215,000 people were dead.  That was 3 weeks ago.  The dead now number 279,000.  So.. TWENTY THOUSAND PEOPLE EACH WEEK have died.
> 
> You can wear the damn mask.
> 
> 
> 
> The guarantees of freedom of speech are protections from the government.  Not the judgement of your peers, in private spaces.  You can say it - but others are just as free to tell you that you're being an idiot.
> 
> And, so there's no misunderstanding - this is a line you haven't crossed yet, but you should know as this is your first day - Morrus owns the place, and he has no patience for pandemic misinformation.
> 
> 
> 
> How nice for you.  I don't expect you'll want to hear what the statistical repercussions of those behaviors were.




 This free speech doesn't protect you from social pressure including job loss. 

 The concept dates from when the king could kill you for insulting him. It was very arbitrary what the insult was. 

 A french knight got the death penalty for having sex with two of the king's sisters iirc

 The king here is Morrus. His house his rules he is the DM. If he rules you have to use blue text well blue it up baby.

 His knights/enforcers are Umbran and Danny aha he if the delicious cooking.


----------



## NotAYakk

Luminous said:


> I absolutely care about people's lives. And since this _obviously_ isn't working, we should be looking for a different solution than wearing _the damned mask_.



Sure.  The alternative is a lot of people die.

It is a lot like stabbing someone with a knife.  The alternative to not stabbing.someone with a knife is that the person shot has a good chance of death.

With initial treatment, the death rate was about 1% of infected (varies eith demographics), and treatment advances have seemed to about half that death rate since then.

Areas where people distance and wear a mask and cut off areas that don't see the virus not soread, so fewer people die.

As you remove some of that, infection rates go up, and more people die.  Cause, effect.

Starting this month, an alternative is starting to trickle in.  My best guess is 1/300 of the population of the covud-plague-heavy zones will die in the USA from covid 19 before vaccination stops it.

Areas of the world where infection control works will see closer to 1/3000 dead, about 10x less, or better.

Tracking down which of the 1000s of people in your country you may have killed by not wearing a mask is hard.  On average, a each covid unsafe person only kills about 1 in 30, give or take.  A good stab with a kitchen knife follwed by rapid  paramedic help is probably about that deadly.

Most people who stab random strangers with knives in hospitals then run away and don't get caught are not described as "respecting life" by credible people.

But the anti-mask movement in most countries is the majority people, so responding to their actions to the scale of the consequences is not permitted.  So we pretend it is a legitimate difference of opinion.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> Sure.  The alternative is a lot of people die.
> 
> It is a lot like stabbing someone with a knife.  The alternative to not stabbing.someone with a knife is that the person shot has a good chance of death.
> 
> With initial treatment, the death rate was about 1% of infected (varies eith demographics), and treatment advances have seemed to about half that death rate since then.
> 
> Areas where people distance and wear a mask and cut off areas that don't see the virus not soread, so fewer people die.
> 
> As you remove some of that, infection rates go up, and more people die.  Cause, effect.
> 
> Starting this month, an alternative is starting to trickle in.  My best guess is 1/300 of the population of the covud-plague-heavy zones will die in the USA from covid 19 before vaccination stops it.
> 
> Areas of the world where infection control works will see closer to 1/3000 dead, about 10x less, or better.
> 
> Tracking down which of the 1000s of people in your country you may have killed by not wearing a mask is hard.  On average, a each covid unsafe person only kills about 1 in 30, give or take.  A good stab with a kitchen knife follwed by rapid  paramedic help is probably about that deadly.
> 
> Most people who stab random strangers with knives in hospitals then run away and don't get caught are not described as "respecting life" by credible people.
> 
> But the anti-mask movement in most countries is the majority people, so responding to their actions to the scale of the consequences is not permitted.  So we pretend it is a legitimate difference of opinion.




 I think our death rates more like 1 in 70 but the overall deathtoll has been negligible.

 Only had half the ICU beds of Australia hence going hard and early. Bit more ambulance at top of cliff than the bottom.

 Plan was to buy time for vaccine but kinda eliminated it. Over achieved.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Luminous said:


> Can I tell a secret?
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Secret
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Very Secret
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Incredibly Secret
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: There's nothing wrong with saying it, I should have free speech.
> 
> 
> 
> I have never worn a mask, this entire time, this entire pandemic. I've gone about my daily life. And nobody's told me not to. I can walk into a restaurant, into a doctor's office, into the theater, into the park. And I'm fine, just like everyone else I brush past.
> Once, I had it. And I have never had it since.



"I don't wash my hands after pooping. Nobody tells me to."
"I don't cover my nose and mouth when I sneeze in public. Nobody tells me to."
"I don't cover an open wound when it's bleeding. Nobody tells me to."
"I don't throw my trash in a trash can, I just drop it on the ground. Nobody tells me to."

I'm always surprised in zombie movies how people act in ways that so obviously put themselves and others in danger. Luminous, you are showing just how realistic these movies actually are!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Vaccine distribution update: some- but not all- of our hospitals will be getting it in the first wave getting the Pfizer vaccine, followed by certain critical patients.  Pharmacies, second-tier healthcare facilities and others will have to wait.  As things stand, my Father is not on the list for getting vaccinated NOW, but expects to be no later than the second wave.

Also, it seems the Moderna shows pretty high immunity lasting 3 months or so.  If the Pfizer vaccine- made using a similar method- is likewise induced strong but short lived immune responses, the predictions of C19 being a pathogen we’ll be dealing with annually are probably accurate.


----------



## Umbran

BookTenTiger said:


> "I don't wash my hands after pooping. Nobody tells me to."
> "I don't cover my nose and mouth when I sneeze in public. Nobody tells me to."
> "I don't cover an open wound when it's bleeding. Nobody tells me to."
> "I don't throw my trash in a trash can, I just drop it on the ground. Nobody tells me to."




In this case, we can add...

"I drive while drunk.  Nobody tells me not to."


NotAYakk said:


> With initial treatment, the death rate was about 1% of infected (varies eith demographics), and treatment advances have seemed to about half that death rate since then.




Overall, the US has had 14.6 million cases, and 281,000 deaths (the reported number went up since my previous post earlier tonight!).

That's an overall mortality rate more like 2%.  Yes, that's including the period earlier this year when hospitals were getting swamped.  But, guess what?  They're getting swamped again.  Advances in treatment will fail when cases overwhelm the healthcare system.

Reports I've seen recently for the US give the virus a reproductive number around 4 when folks ignore safety precautions like masks and social distancing.

If someone gets it, they will probably survive.  But if we treat them like a statistically average case they'll give it to four people.  If they're likewise ignoring safety, each of them will give it to 4 more (adding 16, bringing the total to 20).  Those 16 will each infect four more (adding 64, to a total of 84).  One of those people dies.  The 64 each infect 4 (adding 256, bringing the total to 340 infected.)  At this point, with that 2% mortality rate, six people are probably dead.

Each of those generations take about a week.  If they die, they probably do so within a month of getting sick.  So, if you walk around unprotected, and get covid... statistically speaking, within two months, you may be fine, but six other people are dead.


----------



## Luminous

NotAYakk said:


> Sure.  The alternative is a lot of people die.
> 
> It is a lot like stabbing someone with a knife.  The alternative to not stabbing.someone with a knife is that the person shot has a good chance of death.
> 
> With initial treatment, the death rate was about 1% of infected (varies eith demographics), and treatment advances have seemed to about half that death rate since then.
> 
> Areas where people distance and wear a mask and cut off areas that don't see the virus not soread, so fewer people die.
> 
> As you remove some of that, infection rates go up, and more people die.  Cause, effect.
> 
> Starting this month, an alternative is starting to trickle in.  My best guess is 1/300 of the population of the covud-plague-heavy zones will die in the USA from covid 19 before vaccination stops it.
> 
> Areas of the world where infection control works will see closer to 1/3000 dead, about 10x less, or better.
> 
> Tracking down which of the 1000s of people in your country you may have killed by not wearing a mask is hard.  On average, a each covid unsafe person only kills about 1 in 30, give or take.  A good stab with a kitchen knife follwed by rapid  paramedic help is probably about that deadly.
> 
> Most people who stab random strangers with knives in hospitals then run away and don't get caught are not described as "respecting life" by credible people.
> 
> But the anti-mask movement in most countries is the majority people, so responding to their actions to the scale of the consequences is not permitted.  So we pretend it is a legitimate difference of opinion.



Yeah, right!


----------



## Luminous

Umbran said:


> In this case, we can add...
> 
> "I drive while drunk.  Nobody tells me not to."
> 
> 
> Overall, the US has had 14.6 million cases, and 281,000 deaths (the reported number went up since my previous post earlier tonight!).
> 
> That's an overall mortality rate more like 2%.  Yes, that's including the period earlier this year when hospitals were getting swamped.  But, guess what?  They're getting swamped again.  Advances in treatment will fail when cases overwhelm the healthcare system.
> 
> Reports I've seen recently for the US give the virus a reproductive number around 4 when folks ignore safety precautions like masks and social distancing.
> 
> If someone gets it, they will probably survive.  But if we treat them like a statistically average case they'll give it to four people.  If they're likewise ignoring safety, each of them will give it to 4 more (adding 16, bringing the total to 20).  Those 16 will each infect four more (adding 64, to a total of 84).  One of those people dies.  The 64 each infect 4 (adding 256, bringing the total to 340 infected.)  At this point, with that 2% mortality rate, six people are probably dead.
> 
> Each of those generations take about a week.  If they die, they probably do so within a month of getting sick.  So, if you walk around unprotected, and get covid... statistically speaking, within two months, you may be fine, but six other people are dead.



Well look at you, the god of statistics, who never lies.
I could've given you a logical retort but I just have to give my own insult once in a while.


----------



## Zardnaar

This is gonna end well.


----------



## Luminous

Zardnaar said:


> This is gonna end well.



Just like always.


Spoiler


----------



## Zardnaar

Luminous said:


> Just like always.
> 
> 
> Spoiler




 I think the moral of the story is if people bothered putting in minimal amount of effort short term you could have fun now.


----------



## Luminous

Umbran said:


> In this case, we can add...
> 
> "I drive while drunk.  Nobody tells me not to."
> 
> 
> Overall, the US has had 14.6 million cases, and 281,000 deaths (the reported number went up since my previous post earlier tonight!).
> 
> That's an overall mortality rate more like 2%.  Yes, that's including the period earlier this year when hospitals were getting swamped.  But, guess what?  They're getting swamped again.  Advances in treatment will fail when cases overwhelm the healthcare system.
> 
> Reports I've seen recently for the US give the virus a reproductive number around 4 when folks ignore safety precautions like masks and social distancing.
> 
> If someone gets it, they will probably survive.  But if we treat them like a statistically average case they'll give it to four people.  If they're likewise ignoring safety, each of them will give it to 4 more (adding 16, bringing the total to 20).  Those 16 will each infect four more (adding 64, to a total of 84).  One of those people dies.  The 64 each infect 4 (adding 256, bringing the total to 340 infected.)  At this point, with that 2% mortality rate, six people are probably dead.
> 
> Each of those generations take about a week.  If they die, they probably do so within a month of getting sick.  So, if you walk around unprotected, and get covid... statistically speaking, within two months, you may be fine, but six other people are dead.



NOW I will give the logical retort you guys always love.

First, an analysis of what you are saying:
"I don't wash my hands after pooping. Nobody tells me to."
"I don't cover my nose and mouth when I sneeze in public. Nobody tells me to."
"I don't cover an open wound when it's bleeding. Nobody tells me to."
"I don't throw my trash in a trash can, I just drop it on the ground. Nobody tells me to."
Well that's lovely.
You are comparing (not wearing a mask) to not washing my hands after I naughty word, stabbing someone with a knife, driving drunk...
I am not doing it _because_ nobody tells me to; I don't care. I simply refuse, _unless_ I am forced to wear one, and everybody else doesn't confront me, because they understand.
I am not anti-mask, I simply do not wear one. The experts that_ I_ have consulted, including a doctor, say there is no need anyway. For this virus, though other viruses might come up where it would be both necessary and effective.
What matters is where you get your information. And most people here are not looking in good places.


----------



## Luminous

Umbran said:


> That is the stated intent of the incoming administration here in the US as well.



Holy crap.


----------



## Luminous

Luminous said:


> Meets his Doominous.





Umbran said:


> That is the stated intent of the incoming administration here in the US as well.



I think Mr. Umbran has a misunderstanding about United States politics; his statement was completely political, but also subtle.
I will discuss and correct his misunderstanding of the U.S political system.
I believe he is talking about


Spoiler: Political, but funny, although the funniness is not the point.



THIS


 incoming administration.
He seems to believe that a certain presidential candidate whose name is Trumalimunumaprzure Bedikefcare is actually the President-elect. This is misinformation. A brief outline for the actual electoral process is described.

Voting : The citizens of America vote for a presidential candidate. -
Debates : Major presidential candidates answer questions to explain what they believe. -
Votes are counted: After votes are submitted they are scanned and added to Presidential Candidate's total number of votes. -
Electoral College Convenes : A compromise between Democracy and a Republic. A group of 538 people from across the nation vote for a president and vice President based on the votes of the people. This has not yet happened, and will occur on December 14th. After a candidate has been certified *by the Electoral College*, he can then be called the President-elect.
An inauguration is held to appoint the President-elect on January 20th, and the President-elect can then be called the President. If a President is inaugurated, it will take serious legal action to overturn the election results.


----------



## Zardnaar

Luminous said:


> I think Mr. Umbran has a misunderstanding about United States politics; his statement was completely political, but also subtle.
> I will discuss and correct his misunderstanding of the U.S political system.
> I believe he is talking about
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Political, but funny, although the funniness is not the point.
> 
> 
> 
> THIS
> 
> 
> incoming administration.
> He seems to believe that a certain presidential candidate whose name is Trunalimunumprazure Bedikefcare is actually the President-elect. This is misinformation. A brief outline for the actual electoral process is described.
> 
> Voting : The citizens of America vote for a presidential candidate. -
> Debates : Major presidential candidates answer questions to explain what they believe. -
> Votes are counted: After votes are submitted they are scanned and added to Presidential Candidate's total number of votes. -
> Electoral College Convenes : A compromise between Democracy and a Republic. A group of 538 people from across the nation vote for a president and vice President based on the votes of the people. This has not yet happened, and will occur on December 14th. After a candidate has been certified *by the Electoral College*, he can then be called the President-elect.
> An inauguration is held to appoint the President-elect on January 20th, and the President-elect can then be called the President. If a President is inaugurated, it will take serious legal action to overturn the election results.




 Technically you are correct. Technically you just broke the rules.


----------



## Luminous

Zardnaar said:


> Technically you are correct. Technically you just broke the rules.



Actually Bedikefcare broke the rules.


----------



## Luminous

Zardnaar said:


> Technically you are correct. Technically you just broke the rules.



So did Mr. Umbran.


----------



## Zardnaar

Luminous said:


> So did Mr. Umbran.




 Mods set the rules though. There's a little bit of leeway on topics such as this but generally only in very broad terms and as it relates to the pandemic.


----------



## Luminous

Zardnaar said:


> Mods set the rules though.



And then they break their own rules.


----------



## Zardnaar

Luminous said:


> And then they break their own rules.




 In very broad terms on this thread there's a bit more leeway. 

 For example "Jacinda Ardern passes legislation about vaccine distribution". 

 She's a politician, it's related to the pandemic. I'm not shilling for her though or anyone else.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Zardnaar said:


> In very broad terms on this thread there's a bit more leeway.
> 
> For example "Jacinda Ardern passes legislation about vaccine distribution".
> 
> She's a politician, it's related to the pandemic. I'm not shilling for her though or anyone else.



Don't feed the troll, Zardnaar.


----------



## Luminous

BookTenTiger said:


> Don't feed the troll, Zardnaar.



Meanie! I'm no troll.


----------



## Luminous

Zardnaar said:


> In very broad terms on this thread there's a bit more leeway.
> 
> For example "Jacinda Ardern passes legislation about vaccine distribution".
> 
> She's a politician, it's related to the pandemic. I'm not shilling for her though or anyone else.



Then how am I breaking the rules? Someone didn't have accurate information, I explained how it actually happens.
I own it, I said something political that didn't relate to the pandemic. I see it all the time


----------



## Zardnaar

Luminous said:


> Then how am I breaking the rules?




 Tone and arguing against basic common sense stuff. 

 Mask use isn't the be all and end all mask use here was crap even in lockdown 1.0. 

 But social distancing and everything else was very good but some places aren't doing that either.


----------



## Luminous

Zardnaar said:


> Tone and arguing against basic common sense stuff.
> 
> Mask use isn't the be all and end all mask use here was crap even in lockdown 1.0.
> 
> But social distancing and everything else was very good but some places aren't doing that either.



Wait a minute... you were calling me out on politics!


----------



## Zardnaar

Luminous said:


> Wait a minute... you were calling me out on politics!




 Not really it's up to you what you're doing.  I'm not going to lecture you or whatever. That's on you. 

 Merely pointing out the unspoken assumption's one can get away with.


----------



## Luminous

Zardnaar said:


> But social distancing and everything else was very good but some places aren't doing that either.



I really didn't want to keep arguing about this. But social distancing has ruined the economy, MSNBC (!) reports that 100,000 small businesses across the country will file for bankruptcy and never come back. Because of the government's mishandled war on COVID-19.


----------



## Luminous

Luminous said:


> I really didn't want to keep arguing about this. But social distancing has ruined the economy, MSNBC (!) reports that 100,000 small businesses across the country will file for bankruptcy and never come back. Because of the government's mishandled war on COVID-19.



Does anybody want a 6-week lockdown to sign the deal?


----------



## Zardnaar

Luminous said:


> I really didn't want to keep arguing about this. But social distancing has ruined the economy, MSNBC (!) reports that 100,000 small businesses across the country will file for bankruptcy and never come back. Because of the government's mishandled war on COVID-19.




 Want me to put up my counter stats? All things considered we're doing great. 

 The countries that half assed it are doing worse than the countries that didn't or wiped it out. 

  Economists here said the worst case scenario was rolling lockdowns. Do nothing you collapse your healthcare system, do rolling lockdowns your economy takes a hit. 

 Consumers have to spend money, they're not going to do that regardless if you do nothing. 

 It's why after 9/11 or virtually every other disaster the president encourages people to spend.


----------



## Zardnaar

Luminous said:


> Does anybody want a 6-week lockdown to sign the deal?




 We did 7 weeks, Victoria in Australia did 12 weeks, Wuhan did 12 weeks.

 That was proper lockdown not this half assed US or Europe "lockdowns". Couldn't even get food delivered.


----------



## Luminous

Zardnaar said:


> We did 7 weeks, Victoria in Australia did 12 weeks, Wuhan did 12 weeks.



And it better not happen again!


----------



## Luminous

Zardnaar said:


> Want me to put up my counter stats? All things considered we're doing great.
> 
> The countries that half assed it are doing worse than the countries that didn't or wiped it out.
> 
> Economists here said the worst case scenario was rolling lockdowns. Do nothing you collapse your healthcare system, do rolling lockdowns your economy takes a hit.
> 
> Consumers have to spend money, they're not going to do that regardless if you do nothing.
> 
> It's why after 9/11 or virtually every other disaster the president encourages people to spend.



Mr. Zardnaar, "Doing Great" is not stats. My refutations of several- not all- Coronavirus regulations is not "half-assed."
 Slovania declared Coronavirus OVER. And they have no masks, no 6 feet apart, and no more deaths than the direct and indirect effects of a lockdown would give.


----------



## Luminous

Luminous said:


> Mr. Zardnaar, "Doing Great" is not stats. My refutations of several- not all- Coronavirus regulations is not "half-assed."
> Slovania declared Coronavirus OVER. And they have no masks, no 6 feet apart, and no more deaths than the direct and indirect effects of a lockdown would give.



Look at the stats: 
This entire time, Slovenia has had 81,349 cases and 1,592 deaths. Their approach - perhaps it should be called "herd immunity"sounds pretty good to me.


----------



## Luminous

Zardnaar said:


> That was proper lockdown not this half assed US or Europe "lockdowns". Couldn't even get food delivered.



I misread that as "no social distancing is half-assed." I agree with you, there should've been a hard and *real* lockdown of significantly affected areas (such as New York) in the U.S.
As soon as the pandemic hit. Now it's too late for a lockdown.


----------



## Zardnaar

Luminous said:


> Look at the stats:
> This entire time, Slovenia has had 81,349 cases and 1,592 deaths. Their approach - perhaps it should be called "herd immunity"sounds pretty good to me.




 Last I looked we had 25 dead and around 1600 cases. Everything's open no restrictions except at the border. 

 The plan was sit it out and wait for vaccine. 

 Cost is harder to say but proportionally it's been a fraction of what the US has paid without the death toll and our populations a little bit bigger than Slovenia. 

  We do have some geographical advantages but one can compare numbers with Guam, Ireland, French Polynesia, Hawaii or even individual US states.
I think we've had half the numbers of Guam with 30 times the population.


----------



## Luminous

Zardnaar said:


> Last I looked we had 25 dead and around 1600 cases. Everything's open no restrictions except at the border.
> 
> The plan was sit it out and wait for vaccine.
> 
> Cost is harder to say but proportionally it's been a fraction of what the US has paid without the death toll and our populations a little bit bigger than Slovenia.
> 
> We do have some geographical advantages but one can compare numbers with Guam, Ireland, French Polynesia, Hawaii or even individual US states.
> I think we've had half the numbers of Guam with 30 times the population.



That's how it should go. The people I most feel sorry for, apart from the dead, are those that are ruined into poverty by guidelines supposed to help them.
Which is why few restrictions is the best approach, and many countries have found it (including yours it seems).


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Luminous said:


> I am not anti-mask, I simply do not wear one. The experts that_ I_ have consulted, including a doctor, say there is no need anyway. For this virus, though other viruses might come up where it would be both necessary and effective.
> What matters is where you get your information. And most people here are not looking in good places.



I live with an immunologist.  I get to read- and have posted- stuff from the WHO, the CDC, JAMA, Lancet, and other peer reviewed sources. Everything I see says one thing about masks: they work.  And they go into great detail why they work.

Others here have done likewise, again from reputable sources.

You are claiming multiple sources saying something apparently completely different.  I’m curious as to what sources you’re looking at that are pushing against a lot of thoroughly researched science.

It’s not that anti-masker guy in Oregon who got his medical license yanked a day or so ago, is it?


----------



## Zardnaar

Luminous said:


> That's how it should go. The people I most feel sorry for, apart from the dead, are those that are ruined into poverty by guidelines supposed to help them.
> Which is why few restrictions is the best approach, and many countries have found it (including yours it seems).




 I said months ago on this very thread Covids going to puncture more than a few people's ideological positions. 

 On one side it's going to be on how things are funded, taxed, and healthcare. 

 On the other it's going to be freedom of movement and beliefs around immigration. 

 For example with the borders closed some industries are offering 10-25"% higher wages plus bonuses and perks. Wanna pick fruit at $25 an hour, free accommodation and $1000-$2000 signing bonus?

 $300 usd for a day's work unskilled Labour. Haven't seen that for long time. Australia's offering even more they're trying to hire kiwis to go over there.


----------



## Luminous

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I live with an immunologist.  I get to read- and have posted- stuff from the WHO, the CDC, JAMA, Lancet, and other peer reviewed sources. Everything I see says one thing about masks: they work.  And they go into great detail why they work.
> 
> Others here have done likewise, again from reputable sources.
> 
> You are claiming multiple sources saying something apparently completely different.  I’m curious as to what sources you’re looking at that are pushing against a lot of thoroughly researched science.
> 
> It’s not that anti-masker guy in Oregon who got his medical license yanked a day or so ago, is it?



I thought I was finished arguing...
Whatever. To hell with your reputable sources.


----------



## Luminous

Either way, I have little interest in the scientific explanation of how masks work, although it is the least harmful method of social distancing.
I care more about economic fallout, and people's freedom.
Benjamin Franklin once said: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
And don't tell me I'm stabbing someone in the back, I've already gone through this for like the past 2 pages.


----------



## Luminous

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It would be working better if more than 50% of Americans were actually wear them, socially distanced, and washed their hands.



Mr. Danny, social distancing has tried and failed. Don't blame it on Americans.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Luminous said:


> Slovania declared Coronavirus OVER. And they have no masks, no 6 feet apart, and no more deaths than the direct and indirect effects of a lockdown would give.



This is not true.

As of mid-November, they’re currently closing non-essential stores and shutting down public transportation due to a surge in C19 numbers.


> Face masks must be worn in all public spaces unless exercising alone. Restaurants and bars must close, with only takeaway services permitted. There is also a ban on all events, rallies, weddings, and religious ceremonies, and gyms and sports facilities for recreational sports have also closed.






> A 30-day nationwide state of emergency was enacted on October 19, due to a rapid rise of COVID-19 cases. On October 20, a nightly curfew was placed in effect from 21:00 to 06:00 (local time) nationwide. All movement outside of residences during the curfew hours are restricted for reasons of work, emergencies, and urgent family assistance. A ban on travel between regions remains, excluding for work, healthcare, and emergency situations.












						Slovenia: Authorities tighten COVID-19 restrictions from November 12 /update 16
					

Slovenian authorities tighten COVID-19 restrictions for two weeks from November 12; follow government directives




					www.garda.com


----------



## Luminous

Slovania, Sparewenia, perhaps I mixed a name up.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Luminous said:


> Mr. Danny, social distancing has tried and failed. Don't blame it on Americans.



It didn’t fail because it was never properly performed.


----------



## Zardnaar

Luminous said:


> Mr. Danny, social distancing has tried and failed. Don't blame it on Americans.




 I'm not going to point fingers or lay blame but put it this way the US response was no surprise. 

 Europe and the UK was a bit more of a surprise.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It didn’t fail because it was never properly performed.




 This.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Luminous said:


> Slovania, Sparewenia, perhaps I mixed a name up.



Perhaps you should do a quick check and figure out what country- if any- you mean.

(Given that the COVID figures you cited- “81,349 cases and 1,592 deaths”- matched up pretty much perfectly with Slovenia, I’m not too inclined to think you made an error of identifying the country, but rather, believe you have either mistakenly or intentionally misrepresented their actual reactions.)


----------



## Luminous

And I bet all you'll hear on January 21st is that Americans are all doing what they're supposed to do, always staying six feet apart, and wearing masks.
 I've said it a million times, _there is no "properly performed."_ It does not help, and even if it does, it is not worth it, I am tired of walking in this circle.


----------



## Luminous

Dannyalcatraz said:


> (Given that the COVID figures you cited matched up pretty much perfectly with Slovenia, I’m not too inclined to think you made an error of identifying the country, but rather, believe you have either mistakenly or intentionally misrepresented their actual reactions.)



I looked up the cases to see if I was right, but like I said I might have mixed up the country. Just goes to say, neither my mysterious countries (it's virtually the same way in Scandinavia) or Slovenia are doing _bad_.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Luminous said:


> I thought I was finished arguing...
> Whatever. To hell with your reputable sources.



And there it is!


----------



## Zardnaar

Luminous said:


> And I bet all you'll hear on January 21st is that Americans are all doing what they're supposed to do, always staying six feet apart, and wearing masks.
> I've said it a million times, _there is no "properly performed."_ It does not help, and even if it does, it is not worth it, I am tired of walking in this circle.




Our cases for today. 








						Covid-19 update: No new cases in New Zealand today
					

There have been no new cases of Covid-19 reported in New Zealand today, the Health Ministry has confirmed.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




0.

RNZ the source is kinda like the BBC.

 Some people miss lockdown. Whole country was more or less on same page, more time with family.


----------



## Luminous

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And there it is!



Yay! Glad we've all come to an agreement. Bye-bye! See you when the masks are down and the smiles are up!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Luminous said:


> And I bet all you'll hear on January 21st is that Americans are all doing what they're supposed to do, always staying six feet apart, and wearing masks.
> I've said it a million times, _there is no "properly performed."_ It does not help, and even if it does, it is not worth it, I am tired of walking in this circle.



I live in Texas.  There is no way in hell Americans will all fall in line because Biden asked nicely.  So the first sentence there is a fantasy.

The second is a denial of reality- a task improperly performed cannot be used as an an indicator that the task is ineffective, regardless of its results. That’s bad science; that’s bad logic, no matter how many times you say it.

Your coda hearkens back to the hoary old doctor joke, “My arm hurts when I do this.” _gestures_ “Then you should stop doing that.”


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Luminous said:


> Yay! Glad we've all come to an agreement. Bye-bye! See you when the masks are down and the smiles are up!



No agreement.  Just disappointment.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I live in Texas.  There is no way in hell Americans will all fall in line because Biden asked nicely.  So the first sentence there is a fantasy.
> 
> The second is a denial of reality- a task improperly performed cannot be used as an an indicator that the task is ineffective, regardless of its results. That’s bad science; that’s bad logic, no matter how many times you say it.
> 
> Your coda hearkens back to the hoary old doctor joke, “My arm hurts when I do this.” _gestures_ “Then you should stop doing that.”




 Americans don't really fall in line unless battleships blow up in Hawaii or planes crash in NYC. 

 Europe's disappointed me more, different expectations.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Luminous said:


> Just goes to say, neither my mysterious countries (it's virtually the same way in Scandinavia) or Slovenia are doing _bad_.



Compared to the USA?  Nope, but then, who is?

But by their own metrics, they’re concerned enough that they’re enacting the very kinds of measures you claimed they weren’t.  IOW, _they think they’re doing badly enough that emergency measures are required._


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Americans don't really fall in line unless battleships blow up in Hawaii or planes crash in NYC.



Sad but very close to accurate.


----------



## Hussar

Luminous said:


> I absolutely care about people's lives. And since this _obviously_ isn't working, we should be looking for a different solution than wearing _the damned mask_.



See, the reason it isn't working is because of people like you who ignore the rules, for whatever reason, and then pretend that it's the mask mandate that's failing.  I wonder how many people you potentially murdered when you had Covid-19 and were asymptomatic before your symptoms presented.  How does it feel knowing that you murdered potentially dozens of people?  I'm honestly curious.

I live in a country where we have tops, 2500 cases a day.  That's it.  The entire country of 125 MILLION, is pretty much Covid free because people actually listened to the doctors, stayed home, wore their masks and, oh look, life is largely back to normal, and we've had less total dead than you have in a day.

It's utterly mind boggling that people would blame the masks and the mandates and not themselves.

I understand this is a topic that lends itself to volatility and emotional reactions, but lets try to keep it from being personal.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Researchers have found that a particular kind of blood test already used to test efficacy of other vaccines may also be used to test the efficacy of C19 vaccines.  This could mean a cheaper, faster way to test the other C19 vaccines in development, giving us a broader and deeper arsenal in fighting this pandemic.









						Could a Blood Test Show if a COVID-19 Vaccine Works?
					

A new study in monkeys suggests that a blood test could predict the effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccine -- and perhaps speed up the clinical trials needed to get a working vaccine to billions of people around the world.The study, published Friday in Nature, reveals telltale blood markers that...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## MarkB

Deleted - already said by many others.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> In this case, we can add...
> 
> "I drive while drunk.  Nobody tells me not to."
> 
> 
> Overall, the US has had 14.6 million cases, and 281,000 deaths (the reported number went up since my previous post earlier tonight!).
> 
> That's an overall mortality rate more like 2%.  Yes, that's including the period earlier this year when hospitals were getting swamped.  But, guess what?  They're getting swamped again.  Advances in treatment will fail when cases overwhelm the healthcare system.



About 1% of actually infected.  2% of diagnosed would mean you missed about half of those infected, it doesn't disprove it.

But you actually miss more than 75% of those infected.  About half of the US infections have been in the last 2 months, and most of those in the last few weeks.  The dead just aren't dead yet.

The 1% value is useful when you ask "why don't we just let everyone get sick".

Now this varies with demographics of the region.  USA is going to have a lower deathnrate than Italy; it has a younger population.



Umbran said:


> Reports I've seen recently for the US give the virus a reproductive number around 4 when folks ignore safety precautions like masks and social distancing.
> 
> If someone gets it, they will probably survive.  But if we treat them like a statistically average case they'll give it to four people.  If they're likewise ignoring safety, each of them will give it to 4 more (adding 16, bringing the total to 20).  Those 16 will each infect four more (adding 64, to a total of 84).  One of those people dies.  The 64 each infect 4 (adding 256, bringing the total to 340 infected.)  At this point, with that 2% mortality rate, six people are probably dead.



Except most people infected get infected late in the outbreak, with fewer people left to be infected, and if they managed to avoid infection the outbreak would probably infect the people they would have infected a few minutes, hours or days later.

Early prevention in an outbreak cut short by vaccination change the math hugely.  Then shaving infections off the chain saves many lives.

Similarly, one plague spreader in an area of responsible people has their effects blunted by the work of other people.

Max marginal deaths (per plague spreader) then happens in a population that is half assing plague spreading, as each spreader accellerates the plague just enough to harvest the most dead people before vaccination.


----------



## Morrus

Luminous said:


> I am not anti-mask, I simply do not wear one. The experts that_ I_ have consulted, including a doctor, say there is no need anyway. For this virus, though other viruses might come up where it would be both necessary and effective.
> What matters is where you get your information. And most people here are not looking in good places.



Do _not_ use this site to spread false and dangerous health information. If you do so again, you will be asked to leave.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Our cases for today.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19 update: No new cases in New Zealand today
> 
> 
> There have been no new cases of Covid-19 reported in New Zealand today, the Health Ministry has confirmed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 0.
> 
> RNZ the source is kinda like the BBC.
> 
> Some people miss lockdown. Whole country was more or less on same page, more time with family.



Yup when people actually follow appropriate rules and that includes speed limits, stop signs, not being intoxicated while driving we get fewer deaths, seems like a pattern


----------



## NotAYakk

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Researchers have found that a particular kind of blood test already used to test efficacy of other vaccines may also be used to test the efficacy of C19 vaccines.  This could mean a cheaper, faster way to test the other C19 vaccines in development, giving us a broader and deeper arsenal in fighting this pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Could a Blood Test Show if a COVID-19 Vaccine Works?
> 
> 
> A new study in monkeys suggests that a blood test could predict the effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccine -- and perhaps speed up the clinical trials needed to get a working vaccine to billions of people around the world.The study, published Friday in Nature, reveals telltale blood markers that...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



Which eould mean testing _safety_ is sufficient, speeding up other vaccines.  (safety is still lots of work, but effectiveness requires finding areas with an active outbreak and waiting for a statistical difference between the two groups.  Hard, and harder when you need to compare it to "best practices" without harming your test subjects...)


----------



## Luminous

Dannyalcatraz said:


> No agreement.  Just disappointment.



I unwatched this thread and am still getting notifications. And since all of you keep wanting an answer to the same questions, and vice versa, it is damned annoying.


----------



## Luminous

And to be clear, my preferences are not just based on health.


----------



## Umbran

Luminous said:


> Meanie! I'm no troll.




*Mod Note:*

Yes you are.  That's enough of this thread for you.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Except most people infected get infected late in the outbreak, with fewer people left to be infected...




We are, alas, nowhere near that point yet.  Even if we are generous on how many infections we don't ever detect, on the order of 10% of the country has been infected.  There's still plenty of people left to get sick and die.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> We are, alas, nowhere near that point yet.  Even if we are generous on how many infections we don't ever detect, on the order of 10% of the country has been infected.  There's still plenty of people left to get sick and die.



There are many areas of the USA that are far, far past 10% infected.

Deaths are a reliable lagging indicator of Covid-19 infection.

Look at areas with 0.1% already dead to Covid-19 and deaths/day approaching 2% of existing deaths.  If we presume deaths lag infections by about a month, that means you are seeing a death rate from the infection rate 1 month ago.  If 0.5% total death rate, multiply by 200x.  So 0.1% death rate with 2% day-over-day growth in deaths means on the order of 40% *already* infected.

This isn't "diagnosed", but should rougly include asymptomatic people.

Without aggressively quarantining the red zones, this will spill over to areas that haven't decided to sacrifice their population.

You can see it spread here in this gif:


That is 1 months spread.  Dark green is under 0.02% diagnosed over last 2 weeks.  Dark purple is over 2% diagnosed over last 2 weeks (a factor of over 100x).  The plague lands spread like a stain, as aggressive border control isn't occurring; areas that "do the right thing" get dragged down by the plague carriers driving over county lines.

Areas with outbreaks are going to undercount infected more than areas without, because testing gets overwealmed, and who wants to go to a testing center for a 4 hour lineup with a sniffle when 50% of the people in line will test postive to Covid-19.


----------



## Eltab

Thank you for providing some data to support my own thought: containment lines, not lockdowns, stop spreading diseases in their tracks.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NotAYakk said:


> Which eould mean testing _safety_ is sufficient, speeding up other vaccines.  (safety is still lots of work, but effectiveness requires finding areas with an active outbreak and waiting for a statistical difference between the two groups.  Hard, and harder when you need to compare it to "best practices" without harming your test subjects...)



The article specifically points out why this was an efficacy test, namely, hat they saw distinct differences between the test groups in levels of post-exposure infection as predicted by the blood test,.


----------



## Imaculata

One of my D&D friends seems to have fallen so deep down the covid conspiracy rabbithole, that he has severed ties with us, unfriended us on social media and Steam, and left our D&D group. All because we told him he was wrong. In his last message to us he proudly proclaimed to be part of the resistance, and that he'll refuse any and all measures against the epidemic. This happened just today as I'm writing this.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> One of my D&D friends seems to have fallen so deep down the covid conspiracy rabbithole, that he has severed ties with us, unfriended us on social media and Steam, and left our D&D group. All because we told him he was wrong. In his last message to us he proudly proclaimed to be part of the resistance, and that he'll refuse any and all measures against the epidemic. This happened just today as I'm writing this.




 I'm not really friends with most of my group. I suspect one if them leans that way but hasn't gone that far down the hole and I'm not 100% sure.


----------



## monsmord

Imaculata said:


> One of my D&D friends seems to have fallen so deep down the covid conspiracy rabbithole, that he has severed ties with us, unfriended us on social media and Steam, and left our D&D group. All because we told him he was wrong. In his last message to us he proudly proclaimed to be part of the resistance, and that he'll refuse any and all measures against the epidemic. This happened just today as I'm writing this.



I'm really sorry you're left dealing with that. I went through something similar during the 2016 US elections. It was tough, still haunts me a bit, but in the end I'm much better off, and that's without the extra layer of pandemic/health concerns. I hope you'll be able to look back with a "that sucked but it's better this way" hindsight; you're probably at least a little better off without that sort of irrationality in your circle.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> One of my D&D friends seems to have fallen so deep down the covid conspiracy rabbithole, that he has severed ties with us, unfriended us on social media and Steam, and left our D&D group. All because we told him he was wrong. In his last message to us he proudly proclaimed to be part of the resistance, and that he'll refuse any and all measures against the epidemic. This happened just today as I'm writing this.



We’ve got someone close to our family who is in Conspiracyland as well, in more than one way, but we still communicate.  She actually pushed back on medical science to my Dad on a couple occasions.

I find it stunning.  I have read it’s a coping mechanism, and other explanations, but when I see it up close, it still boggles my mind.


----------



## Imaculata

There's simply no reasoning with people who have allowed themselves to be swallowed by the social media feedback loop which endlessly regurgitates more conspiracies back at them. Heck, I even invited my friend to meet my neighbor who recovered from the virus. But he is not interested in things that contradict his new found religeon, if that is the right term.


----------



## Zardnaar

Derp. Let's be honest no big surprise. 









						Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani admitted to hospital with Covid-19
					

Rudy Giuliani has been leading the Trump campaign's legal challenges to the 2020 election results.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Looking for some economic stuff for comparison. 









						'No more trees to sell': Christmas shoppers out in force, retailers say
					

Christmas trees, clothing, toys and garden supplies - people are spending up, while stocks start to dwindle.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




Basically the country is going nuts post lockdown. My wife works in logistics and it's been the busiest she can remember and has been since May when lockdown ended. 

 Tourism and hospitality has taken a hit but a side effect of closed borders is NZ domestic tourism our dollars aren't being spent elsewhere. 

 Unemployment hit 5.3% it was projected to hit 9-10%. Government deficit was half projections. 

  However we have our own problems. The impact of Covid has landed on people. 

 Negative effects. 

 House prices has surged along with rent. This is causing big social problems. Side effect of cheap interest rates. Our house tripled in value, cousins and nedhews priced out. 

 Women and Maori have been disproportionately effected due to job losses. Hospitality and tourism employ a lot more women for example. Men tend to work in primary industries translation farming and related industries (ports, meat works etc). 

 Shortage of workers as well. 









						Lack of NZ workers an issue for orchardists with Covid restrictions
					

An apple exporter in the Hawke's Bay has told the government an advertising campaign to attract 300 New Zealand workers received more than 200 applications, but only 55 people got jobs.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




  No lockdowns, community spread etc economy is doing relatively well. In the grand scheme of things it's a good problem to have I suppose.

 Borders likely shut until 2022 and Qantas has said no vaccination no flight.  I expect others to do the same.


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I find it stunning.  I have read it’s a coping mechanism, and other explanations, but when I see it up close, it still boggles my mind.



Society has left a lot of us feeling we have no control over our lives ... some seem to want to forcibly take that back even when it means self injury... (or the more horrific hurting of others)


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Absolutely. Just thinking about the crowded hallways of Gen Con gives me literal nightmares.

One thing I hope comes out of this is that when it's over, in the U.S. it becomes the socially-accepted thing to just wear a mask when you've got any sort of respiratory illness. Other countries were already doing that. I can't count the number of times at cons that I've shown up to an event and someone has been free-air snorking and snuffling.



MarkB said:


> Plus, gaming conventions couldn't be a much more ideal environment for the proliferation and spreading of a cold/flu-like virus if they had been scientifically designed for that purpose.


----------



## NotAYakk

Ralif Redhammer said:


> Absolutely. Just thinking about the crowded hallways of Gen Con gives me literal nightmares.
> 
> One thing I hope comes out of this is that when it's over, in the U.S. it becomes the socially-accepted thing to just wear a mask when you've got any sort of respiratory illness. Other countries were already doing that. I can't count the number of times at cons that I've shown up to an event and someone has been free-air snorking and snuffling.



The death rate from the seasonal flu in Australia this "winter" was amazingly low.


----------



## Garthanos

NotAYakk said:


> The death rate from the seasonal flu in Australia this "winter" was amazingly low.
> 
> View attachment 129747



Thinking that is highly expected


----------



## Umbran

Ralif Redhammer said:


> One thing I hope comes out of this is that when it's over, in the U.S. it becomes the socially-accepted thing to just wear a mask when you've got any sort of respiratory illness.




Given that we can't seem to get enough people to wear masks when it will clearly save lives, I fear this is wishful thinking.



Garthanos said:


> Society has left a lot of us feeling we have no control over our lives ... some seem to want to forcibly take that back even when it means self injury... (or the more horrific hurting of others)




That's a partial explanation for the behavior, but I don't think it fully explains the resistance to reality involved, especially given the political polarization also involved.

For the latter, we can also look in part to some basic human psychology - when we take a position, we put an emotional stake in the ground.  to overcome that emotional stake requires getting over two hurdles:

1) Social - being wrong has social capital impact.  Folks will go a long way to deny being wrong to avoid loss of face, especially if the belief is tied up in the social circle.  Today, disagreements with a particular belief can get you ostracized from some groups.

2) Personal - when you are wrong, there's an issue you have to confront, in _why_ were you wrong. That requires self-examination, and likely self-correction. This can require changing an entire world-view, which is _HARD_. It is often easier to deny to great lengths than to self-examine and change one's own belief system.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Given that we can't seem to get enough people to wear masks when it will clearly save lives, I fear this is wishful thinking.
> 
> 
> 
> That's a partial explanation for the behavior, but I don't think it fully explains the resistance to reality involved, especially given the political polarization also involved.



It is my best Steel Man I can conjure for it... 


Umbran said:


> For the latter, we can also look in part to some basic human psychology - when we take a position, we put an emotional stake in the ground.  to overcome that emotional stake requires getting over two hurdles:
> 
> 1) Social - being wrong has social capital impact.  FOlks will go a long way to deny being wrong to avoid that social impact
> 2) Personal - when you are wrong, there's an issue you have to confront, in _why_ were you wrong.  That requires self-examination, and likely self-correction.  Very few people are on board for soul-searching and changing their ways.  People will literally go to war over things to avoid admitting the reality.



Leadership was what lead a lot of people into this anti-reality trap inspite of people denying the power of leadership (insert Warlords are not  realistic argument or maybe we will just keep it abstract).  Which is why its actually important to have good leadership which actually tries to support the truth (leaders can be fear driven and that is a problem too)


----------



## MarkB

Umbran said:


> Given that we can't seem to get enough people to wear masks when it will clearly save lives, I fear this is wishful thinking.
> 
> 
> 
> That's a partial explanation for the behavior, but I don't think it fully explains the resistance to reality involved, especially given the political polarization also involved.
> 
> For the latter, we can also look in part to some basic human psychology - when we take a position, we put an emotional stake in the ground.  to overcome that emotional stake requires getting over two hurdles:
> 
> 1) Social - being wrong has social capital impact.  Folks will go a long way to deny being wrong to avoid loss of face, especially if the belief is tied up in the social circle.  Today, disagreements with a particular belief can get you ostracized from some groups.
> 
> 2) Personal - when you are wrong, there's an issue you have to confront, in _why_ were you wrong. That requires self-examination, and likely self-correction. This can require changing an entire world-view, which is _HARD_. It is often easier to deny to great lengths than to self-examine and change one's own belief system.



And a degree of comfort / laziness. Given a choice between an explanation that will require them to change their ways and one which will allow them to continue as they are, people will find any excuse possible to go with the latter.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Alas, a true point.



Umbran said:


> Given that we can't seem to get enough people to wear masks when it will clearly save lives, I fear this is wishful thinking.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> The death rate from the seasonal flu in Australia this "winter" was amazingly low.
> 
> View attachment 129747




 Same thing happened here. 

 Didn't even get a cold this year.


----------



## NotAYakk

It may become an urban/rural thing.  Or even become a norm in many subcultures; don't wear a mask when sick, get told off by your coworkers and boss.

Elsewhere, get made fun of for wearing a mask while sick.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> That's a partial explanation for the behavior, but I don't think it fully explains the resistance to reality involved, especially given the political polarization also involved.
> 
> For the latter, we can also look in part to some basic human psychology - when we take a position, we put an emotional stake in the ground.  to overcome that emotional stake requires getting over two hurdles:
> 
> 1) Social - being wrong has social capital impact.  Folks will go a long way to deny being wrong to avoid loss of face, especially if the belief is tied up in the social circle.  Today, disagreements with a particular belief can get you ostracized from some groups.
> 
> 2) Personal - when you are wrong, there's an issue you have to confront, in _why_ were you wrong. That requires self-examination, and likely self-correction. This can require changing an entire world-view, which is _HARD_. It is often easier to deny to great lengths than to self-examine and change one's own belief system.



That tracks with what I was taught in my alternative dispute resolution psych classes.  It’s why we’re trained to avoid certain questions- both in kinds and in word choice- we don’t want the parties to perceive our efforts at managing the process as a personal attack.

And- just like with the pandemic contrarians- occasionally you DO get someone who takes a statement of fact or extant law as somehow personal.  When that happens, it’s highly probable the process will fail, at least in the short term.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cheese defense. We missed a couple of slices but the idea accounts for that.


----------



## Istbor

Zardnaar said:


> View attachment 129762
> 
> Cheese defense. We missed a couple of slices but the idea accounts for that.



Not a huge fan of Swiss but I approve this cheesy message.


----------



## Hussar

I said this before, but, so much of the anti-masking movement is an offshoot of how western cultures have made expertise a bad word.  Doesn't really matter what the issue happens to be.  If you have years of experiences and education, you don't know anything.  But, you're an average guy on the street with zero experience and education?  Oh, hell, you know everything there is to know on the topic.  

Doesn't matter if it's climate change, social issues or now Covid, it's the same story over and over again.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> I said this before, but, so much of the anti-masking movement is an offshoot of how western cultures have made expertise a bad word.  Doesn't really matter what the issue happens to be.  If you have years of experiences and education, you don't know anything.  But, you're an average guy on the street with zero experience and education?  Oh, hell, you know everything there is to know on the topic.
> 
> Doesn't matter if it's climate change, social issues or now Covid, it's the same story over and over again.




 It's because of ideology. One group tends to ignore hard science the other soft sciences.

 Gone from A+B=C to C ergo everything =C.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> It's because of ideology. One group tends to ignore hard science the other soft sciences.
> 
> Gone from A+B=C to C ergo everything =C.



Not thinking it is clear cut
Anti GMO and believes in crystal healing and thinks maybe the placebo effect is "real" magic.
On the other hand anti-climate change and anti-mask, sometimes anti-evolution and anti-gender dysphoria.

Anti nuclear  and anti-vaccine you might be either turns out  though it started on the left.

Not even thinking it is well defined... there are Mormons who practice "witchcraft" which would be considered very right wing in genera but at the same time every herbalism etc on their plate are lefty fairy tale source material.


----------



## Garthanos

a little ditty anti-vaxxers on left of me climate changers deniers on the right and me stuck in the middle with science.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Not thinking it is clear cut
> Anti GMO and believes in crystal healing and thinks maybe the placebo effect is "real" magic.
> On the other hand anti-climate change and anti-mask, sometimes anti-evolution and anti-gender dysphoria.
> 
> Anti nuclear  and anti-vaccine you might be either turns out  though it started on the left.
> 
> Not even thinking it is well defined... there are Mormons who practice "witchcraft" which would be considered very right wing in genera but at the same time every herbalism etc on their plate are lefty fairy tale source material.




 I would say we need a third way but that term got hijacked a few decades ago.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Hussar said:


> I said this before, but, so much of the anti-masking movement is an offshoot of how western cultures have made expertise a bad word.  Doesn't really matter what the issue happens to be.  If you have years of experiences and education, you don't know anything.  But, you're an average guy on the street with zero experience and education?  Oh, hell, you know everything there is to know on the topic.
> 
> Doesn't matter if it's climate change, social issues or now Covid, it's the same story over and over again.



This is sadly true.


----------



## Zardnaar

Real effect of 2020. Skipped this phase when younger. The recycling bin. 






 Recycling a lot more.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> herbalism etc




There's herbalism, and then there's herbal medicine.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> There's herbalism, and then there's herbal medicine.



The Mormon Witches I am talking about are related by marriage and do cupping and a whole slew of wildly weird woo woo... the most sane of them is just a trained massage therapist (which has scientific foundation and is not woo)


----------



## ccs

Imaculata said:


> One of my D&D friends seems to have fallen so deep down the covid conspiracy rabbithole, that he has severed ties with us, unfriended us on social media and Steam, and left our D&D group. All because we told him he was wrong. In his last message to us he proudly proclaimed to be part of the resistance, and that he'll refuse any and all measures against the epidemic. This happened just today as I'm writing this.




Well then, Good Luck to the dumb ass.


----------



## Janx

Imaculata said:


> One of my D&D friends seems to have fallen so deep down the covid conspiracy rabbithole, that he has severed ties with us, unfriended us on social media and Steam, and left our D&D group. All because we told him he was wrong. In his last message to us he proudly proclaimed to be part of the resistance, and that he'll refuse any and all measures against the epidemic. This happened just today as I'm writing this.



I'm sorry for your loss.


----------



## Istbor

Imaculata said:


> One of my D&D friends seems to have fallen so deep down the covid conspiracy rabbithole, that he has severed ties with us, unfriended us on social media and Steam, and left our D&D group. All because we told him he was wrong. In his last message to us he proudly proclaimed to be part of the resistance, and that he'll refuse any and all measures against the epidemic. This happened just today as I'm writing this.



I have lost some friends in this way. Not during this time-frame mind you, in the past. More due to religion and then hypocrisy. 

While it does initially suck, I think it is something you can grow to appreciate. Cutting stuff out of your life like that can really reduce some stress. I know my friend was hard to deal with near the end, and caused us a lot of additional stress. Once he cut himself off from everyone, things were less tense and we could breath and have fun again without having to worry about odd rantings. 

I feel like this may make me sound like a jerk, as he was a friend, but really it is good to be rid of that drama. 

Meanwhile, in COVID land... been seeing a lot of email come through of people who work onsite testing positive. Pretty sure I work in a different building, and as of yet have cleared every weeks test with negative. Just interesting, noticing the increase even here were we try to be cautious.


----------



## Deset Gled

Hussar said:


> I said this before, but, so much of the anti-masking movement is an offshoot of how western cultures have made expertise a bad word.  Doesn't really matter what the issue happens to be.  If you have years of experiences and education, you don't know anything.  But, you're an average guy on the street with zero experience and education?  Oh, hell, you know everything there is to know on the topic.




Oddly, the job world in the US seems to have gone the exact opposite: many places refuse to hire anyone that isn't an "expert".  The growing trend is that you need to be certified to do a large number of basic jobs.  And more places than ever refuse to do job training - they will only hire experienced workers.  A lot (but not all) of the "job shortages" you read about aren't cases where there aren't people who want the job, its that the company/industry/government have very strict hiring standards but refuse to give pay that matches.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> A lot (but not all) of the "job shortages" you read about aren't cases where there aren't people who want the job, its that the company/industry/government have very strict hiring standards but refuse to give pay that matches.



Someone forwarded a listing to me the other day that was looking for candidates with master‘s degrees.  Pay was $15/hr.

(I predicted that position would be empty a while...but with the job market being as nasty as it is right now, someone might see that as a life preserver.)


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Someone forwarded a listing to me the other day that was looking for candidates with master‘s degrees.  Pay was $15/hr.
> 
> (I predicted that position would be empty a while...but with the job market being as nasty as it is right now, someone might see that as a life preserver.)



In parts of the research world where postdoc work is common, it's not uncommon for PhDs to earn similar amounts.  For them, at least, it's generally considered to be part of their education.  Still kinda hard for some of the serious academics to live through, though.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> In parts of the research world where postdoc work is common, it's not uncommon for PhDs to earn similar amounts.  For them, at least, it's generally considered to be part of their education.  Still kinda hard for some of the serious academics to live through, though.




And now you see one of the major reasons Ieft academia.


----------



## Zardnaar

Academia often doesn't pay that well, you get paid for your passion really. A lot of art degrees for example. 

 $15 an hour you get more than that picking fruit here it's close to minimum wage. 

 There's some well paying jobs out there not requiring degrees most people just don't think about them or think they're below them. 

 Joke in the 90s was the dumb ones went to university. Outside of a few degrees it's not much of a joke assuming you had some sort of plan.

 To many art, accounting, law degrees not enough tradesmen's, STEM of engineers. 

 American expat friend bureaucrat got salty when his friend driving forklift got 50% more than he did or his wage was what I got 15 years ago in a factory.


----------



## NotAYakk

A problem with trades is that they are very physical jobs.  And when you are 50 years old, the physical part of the job is much harder than when you where 20.  Meanwhile, desk jobs might kill you (from sitting down and not moving enough), but when your body starts to suck you can still do them.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> To many art, accounting, law degrees not enough tradesmen's, STEM of engineers.



I did my degree in the 80s before things got naughty word ton expensive, Computer Science major with minor in Art and Physics and I am now a Software Engineer/Developer. I could have probably gotten an Math major and another minor with very little effort.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> I did my degree in the 80s before things got naughty word ton expensive, Computer Science major with minor in Art and Physics and I am now a Software Engineer/Developer. I could have probably gotten an Math major and another minor with very little effort.




 It was free back then caveat being harder to get into. 

 I did an art degree waste of money oops. Another guy I knew assaulted a teacher, got expelled now a multi millionaire go figure.

  It's still cheap/easy here but there's only around 8/10 degrees worth much otherwise might be better off not going. 

  We've ended up with a heap of educated people who are intelligent but haven't quite figured out their degree isn't worth anything in the real world. 

 Best ones are various engineering degrees followed by the usual suspects (medicine, some STEM etc).


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Garthanos said:


> I did my degree in the 80s before things got naughty word ton expensive, Computer Science major with minor in Art and Physics and I am now a Software Engineer/Developer. I could have probably gotten an Math major and another minor with very little effort.



When I got my undergraduate degree, I was just 3 classes short of 2 bachelor.  As it was, I had 2 majors and had a whole bunch of minors.

ummmm...


----------



## Istbor

Dannyalcatraz said:


> When I got my undergraduate degree, I was just 3 classes short of 2 bachelor.  As it was, I had 2 majors and had a whole bunch of minors.
> 
> ummmm...



Yep. Two Bachelors and one associate degree myself. Not really using one of those Bachelors or the associate.  :S


----------



## Hussar

Yeah, if I had to do it over again, I would have gone to trade school and not bothered with uni.  Complete waste of money that I was pretty much required to do because of education inflation (particularly in Canada where some 85-90% of people hold some sort of post secondary education).  Bank tellers in Canada require a degree.  Heck, my brother was recruiting for the Canadian Forces and they pretty much required a degree before you could enlist.  Everyone else got stuck on year long waiting lists to maybe get a position in one opened up.

It is pretty frustrating.


----------



## Garthanos

Hussar said:


> Yeah, if I had to do it over again, I would have gone to trade school and not bothered with uni.  Complete waste of money that I was pretty much required to do because of education inflation (particularly in Canada where some 85-90% of people hold some sort of post secondary education).  Bank tellers in Canada require a degree.  Heck, my brother was recruiting for the Canadian Forces and they pretty much required a degree before you could enlist.  Everyone else got stuck on year long waiting lists to maybe get a position in one opened up.
> 
> It is pretty frustrating.



I think education is bigger than getting a job. That said I want more jobs to require a degree like for instance the police force ... instead of highschool grads with guns require a degree and provide appropriate undergrad course lists college level psychology and law etc.  Personally I would do my education over again I would do biology and genetics because it seems awesome.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Yeah, if I had to do it over again, I would have gone to trade school and not bothered with uni.  Complete waste of money that I was pretty much required to do because of education inflation (particularly in Canada where some 85-90% of people hold some sort of post secondary education).  Bank tellers in Canada require a degree.  Heck, my brother was recruiting for the Canadian Forces and they pretty much required a degree before you could enlist.  Everyone else got stuck on year long waiting lists to maybe get a position in one opened up.
> 
> It is pretty frustrating.




 Yeah in hindsight I'm thinking the same. Trade school. Or military/police. 

 Used to game with an Australian. He got one of the last great contracts. 

 Joined army at 18, ended up on 6 figures, did his 20 years retired at 38 collecting pension at 80% of his wages. 

 Spends his time playing video games and building pizza ovens and enjoying time with his wife.


----------



## cbwjm

Garthanos said:


> I think education is bigger than getting a job. That said I want more jobs to require a degree like for instance the police force ... instead of highschool grads with guns require a degree and provide appropriate undergrad course lists college level psychology and law etc. Personally I would do my education over again I would do biology and genetics because it seems awesome.



Astrobiology seems to be a growing field that i think I'd be interested in, that or astrophysics. No idea what kind of job I'd end up with if doing that but I'm sure it'd be fascinating.


----------



## NotAYakk

My brother did an astrophysics undergrad.  Decided too many snart people where in physics, went and got an MBA and did well in business.


----------



## Garthanos

NotAYakk said:


> My brother did an astrophysics undergrad.  Decided too many snart people where in physics, went and got an MBA and did well in business.



My physics minor was an accident not something I was over invested in (as a profession) but the concept of quantum physics fascinated me.... as did astronomy so it rather just sort of happened.


----------



## Umbran

Here's a nice little description of how the mRNA coronavirus vaccines do their job.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Here's a nice little description of how the mRNA coronavirus vaccines do their job.




 Problem is this video won't convince anyone. 

 Doesn't really matter if it's right, wrong pink purple. 

 You need to appeal to emotion not logic. 

  I'm just gonna use whatever one the government procures myself.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Problem is this video won't convince anyone.




You know what?  You are almost certainly wrong.  Absolute statements have very little place when discussing human behavior.  

Will it, on its own, convince millions?  No.  Might it (or the information contained) be useful for someone to help a loved one get over the hump of decision?  Maybe.

And that maybe is what matters - it may help someone in someone's family to accept it, if they can speak confidently on how it really works.  

Stop trying to discard tools in people's arsenals, Zardnaar.  Doing that is actively unhelpful.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> You know what?  You are almost certainly wrong.  Absolute statements have very little place when discussing human behavior.
> 
> Will it, on its own, convince millions?  No.  Might it (or the information contained) be useful for someone to help a loved one get over the hump of decision?  Maybe.
> 
> And that maybe is what matters - it may help someone in someone's family to accept it, if they can speak confidently on how it really works.
> 
> Stop trying to discard tools in people's arsenals, Zardnaar.  Doing that is actively unhelpful.



And one family converted to doing it can convert another.

One kid who thinks themselves rational watches this, and goes from apprehensive to cautiously optimistic.

One family whose daughter is now cautiously optimistic tells their friends, with pride, "my smart kid says it is safe".

One stubborn dude decides it is safe, and tells people who pass around conspiracy theories that they are idiots.

If your goal is "this SOLVES EVERYTHING" then everything is hopeless.

If your goal is one, small, step, towards, the, better, then everything is approachable.

People aren't turned into conspiracy theory idiots overnight.  They are repeatedly groomed by aggressive media that makes them more and more susceptible to the next step, one step at a time.

Modern media algorithms treat that growing susceptibility to conspiracy theory nonsense as a growing preference on the part of the consumer, and feed them the next step automatically in order to keep them engaged, watching and sometimes clicking on ads.

Producers of this content spew out stuff, and get immediate feedback on what works and what doesn't with real time viewer counts, and are paid money when it works.

Fighting to rescue someone far down a rabbit hole is hard, but there are many more people on the edge of those rabbit holes than at the bottom.


----------



## Eltab

My mobile device does not play nice with videos 
If he is working with high-school biology and chemistry, staying away from the slogans of the year, his efforts will be a step forward.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> You know what?  You are almost certainly wrong.  Absolute statements have very little place when discussing human behavior.
> 
> Will it, on its own, convince millions?  No.  Might it (or the information contained) be useful for someone to help a loved one get over the hump of decision?  Maybe.
> 
> And that maybe is what matters - it may help someone in someone's family to accept it, if they can speak confidently on how it really works.
> 
> Stop trying to discard tools in people's arsenals, Zardnaar.  Doing that is actively unhelpful.




 Got to remember anyone who would benefit from that video has already been banned from the thread. 

 You're preaching to the converted basically. 

The people who need to see it won't and even if they do they're not that inclined to believe it in the 1st place. 

 Videos not wrong or a thing but in addition to being right you need to figure out how to communicate it to people who need to hear it.


----------



## MarkB

Zardnaar said:


> Got to remember anyone who would benefit from that video has already been banned from the thread.



But their friends and family haven't.

The more people who see it, the more who can pass it on.


----------



## NotAYakk

I can guarantee you that there are (a) people who are waffling, (b) people who may waffle in the future, or (c) people who know wafflers reading this thread.

That video being shared here is worth it for any of those reasons.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Or to put things succinctly, we can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.  A very useful maxim, and one the videos a good example of.  It won’t convince many, but it will convince *some.  *And that some will convince others.  Etc.

Another relevant example is the AstraZeneca vaccine itself.  Supposedly, it’s only 70% effective- pretty good as vaccines go, but definitely not as gaudily potent as the Pfizer and Moderna ones.  But it’s much easier to transport and store, is cheaper to produce, and can be made faster to boot.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Or to put things succinctly, we can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.  A very useful maxim, and one the videos a good example of.  It won’t convince many, but it will convince *some.  *And that some will convince others.  Etc.
> 
> Another relevant example is the AstraZeneca vaccine itself.  Supposedly, it’s only 70% effective- pretty good as vaccines go, but definitely not as gaudily potent as the Pfizer and Moderna ones.  But it’s much easier to transport and store, is cheaper to produce, and can be made faster to boot.




70% is roughly what normal flu vaccine effectiveness is iirc.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> 70% is roughly what normal flu vaccine effectiveness is iirc.



In a good year, but it’s been as low as 40% when some things happen, like we get a strain that mutates more than normal.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In a good year, but it’s been as low as 40% when some things happen, like we get a strain that mutates more than normal.




 Yeah the one I got in May I think they said it was 65% effect. 

 Felt like a human dart board due to getting it in lockdown with social distancing. Sat on a chair in an old garage next door to the doctors building. 

 Told the nurse to use a slingshot not fussy.


----------



## MarkB

The early reports of allergenic issues with the Pfizer vaccine are worrying, not so much in themselves, but because they'll doubtless be used as fuel for the "vaccines are bad/dangerous" misinformation.


----------



## Garthanos

NotAYakk said:


> If your goal is "this SOLVES EVERYTHING" then everything is hopeless.
> 
> If your goal is one, small, step, towards, the, better, then everything is approachable.



There are people that will be influenced by one path and others who may be influenced by another even some things i am not fond of like mockery may actually help some to realize the false praise they are getting from the in group is false praise (and mockery is an emotional tactic).  This example is broader than just towards the subject at hand. 



NotAYakk said:


> People aren't turned into conspiracy theory idiots overnight.  They are repeatedly groomed by aggressive media that makes them more and more susceptible to the next step, one step at a time.



Once they are prone to conspiracy theories it seems like a drug like fix, many of these followers swallow large amounts of nonsense in a serial fashion. The sense of being "in the know" and special combined with a need for everything to be under somebody's control (even if it is a big bad) makes them feel more secure than the idea of things just happening will he nill he.


----------



## Garthanos

MarkB said:


> The early reports of allergenic issues with the Pfizer vaccine are worrying, not so much in themselves, but because they'll doubtless be used as fuel for the "vaccines are bad/dangerous" misinformation.



Their number seems markedly low compared to the  number who have already received without reaction


----------



## NotAYakk

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Or to put things succinctly, we can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.  A very useful maxim, and one the videos a good example of.  It won’t convince many, but it will convince *some.  *And that some will convince others.  Etc.
> 
> Another relevant example is the AstraZeneca vaccine itself.  Supposedly, it’s only 70% effective- pretty good as vaccines go, but definitely not as gaudily potent as the Pfizer and Moderna ones.  But it’s much easier to transport and store, is cheaper to produce, and can be made faster to boot.



And another option could be AstraZeneca followed by a Pfizer/Moderna dose (or vice versa); if that is 95% effective, it stretches the supply.


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Problem is this video won't convince anyone.



Don't see why not.  Afterall people have been convinced of crap by far less.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Another relevant example is the AstraZeneca vaccine itself.  Supposedly, it’s only 70% effective- pretty good as vaccines go, but definitely not as gaudily potent as the Pfizer and Moderna ones.  *But it’s much easier to transport and store, is cheaper to produce, and can be made faster to boot.*



(Emphasis added)

This is a good thing; getting a real handle on this disease will involve tools that people can acquire easily and/or use themselves, not require somebody else acting as a gatekeeper.


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Another relevant example is the AstraZeneca vaccine itself.  Supposedly, it’s only 70% effective- pretty good as vaccines go, but definitely not as gaudily potent as the Pfizer and Moderna ones.  But it’s much easier to transport and store, is cheaper to produce, and can be made faster to boot.



Yes though anywhere standard refrigeration is available might prefer the 94% ones from Moderna.

Another factor we do not know yet duration of protection expectancy it could be a year like the flu or even as awesome ass MMR vaccines.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Garthanos said:


> Yes though anywhere standard refridgeration is available might prefer the 90+ ones from Moderna
> 
> Yes though anywhere standard refrigeration is available might prefer the 94% ones from Moderna.
> 
> Another factor we do not know yet duration of protection expectancy it could be a year like the flu or even as awesome ass MMR vaccines.



My understanding- and please correct me if I’m wrong- is that Moderna’s vaccine is stable for 30 days at standard refrigerator temps.  Anything longer requires colder storage.

In contrast, AZ’s vaccine is stable for 6 _months_ at those temps. That’s a significant difference, especially in the developing world or rural areas of more affluent nations.

It could be even more important if C19 turns out to be a virus we have to live with like the flu, with annual shots or other periodic boosters.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> And another option could be AstraZeneca followed by a Pfizer/Moderna dose (or vice versa); if that is 95% effective, it stretches the supply.




I don't believe those are interchangable.  Certainly, that protocol has not been tested for safety and efficacy, and has not been green-lit by the FDA (or anyone else).

Edit to add:  The Pfizer/Moderna vaccine deliver mRNA to your cells in a lipid coating.  The AstraZeneca vaccine is using a segment of SARS-COV-2 RNA put in a modified virus.  Both induce a cell to make the spike protein from SARS-COV-2, and from that the body initiates an immune response, but they aren't the same, and you can't just swap one for another because it seems convenient.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> The AstraZeneca vaccine is viral-vector.  They are not interchangeable.



So, the point of both the mRNA and the viral-vector is to get the immune system to recognize Covid-19 proteins and kick the crap out of Covid-19.

mRNA works by using your own cells as a bioreactor.  The mRNA slides into your cells (it is wrapped in a fragile lipid package do allow that to happen).  Your cell starts producing the (utterly useless) spike protein.  Your body reacts to the foreign protein and bam, immune response.

The AZ vaccine has a modified chimpanzee virus with RNA that includes "make a spike protein".  This virus is very bad at infecting humans, but it can do a bit.  So it is injected, it infects some of your cells, and tries to make more chimpanzee virus... and while it is as it, it also makes some of the spike protein.

But because it is so so bad at infecting humans, our body wipes it out really quickly.  But it also (hopefully) picks up on that spike protein and learns "spike protein bad!"

The downsides of the AZ live vaccine include that (a) if the person is already immune to that chimpanzee virus, it won't work (this can happen if some other unrelated virus has similar antigens), (b) the person is immune to the chimpanzee virus afterwards, so it cannot be used for this technique ever again.

But in *both cases* the end goal is exposing the immune system to that spike protein and generating an immune response to it.

The double-exposure idea is that if you are exposed to a virus once, your body cleans it up and might not *remember* it as important.  When primed by one exposure, the second exposure goes into overdrive ("that wasn't just a one off thing, we are under attack!  All hands, prepare to repel future boarders!")

As *both* are trying to do the same thing, it is plausible they can work together.

One possible reason the AZ Chimp virus trick might not work is that that Chimp virus is really, really crappy at infecting humans.  So the second dose might get wiped out before it can make any spike proteins, as the immune system is primed from the *first* dose to repel it.

(This could explain why a half dose followed by a full dose could be more effective; don't prime the immune system as hard against the Chimp virus, and the 2nd invasion gets as far as making spike proteins).

But we could flip this.  Give the AZ vaccine.  Then the mRNA virus, which doesn't illicit an immune response from the Chimp virus component of the AZ vaccine, ensuring a robust immune response to the spike protein.

I am not a biologist.  This is not meant to be a convincing argument.  It is mainly meant to say why it is plausible that two different vaccine technologies could work together.

---

The AZ vaccine's big advantage is that it is far, far more stable than the mRNA ones.

You could imagine giving someone the AZ vaccine in the field, and get them to come back in 4 weeks to get the mRNA one at a lab; half as much travel as otherwise.

But if the half-dose full-dose of the AZ vaccine is almost as effective as the mRNA one (we can't be certain due to possibility of p-hacking), then doing two passes in the field might still be better.

Also, we are getting so many different vaccine technologies coming down the pipe.  Worrying about the quirks of the first 3 might be obsolete in a few weeks.  Still, it is fun.


----------



## Zardnaar

Are you gonna get a choice if vaccines? I assume our government will aquire some, they'll be free and you get what's available.


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In contrast, AZ’s vaccine is stable for 6 _months_ at those temps. That’s a significant difference, especially in the developing world or rural areas of more affluent nations.
> 
> It could be even more important if C19 turns out to be a virus we have to live with like the flu, with annual shots or other periodic boosters.



Not doubting that AZ may well be the godsend for those developing areas I wonder if the higher quality might be THE difference between needing boosters and not needing them


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> As *both* are trying to do the same thing, it is plausible they can work together.




So, "it is plausible" and, "they can just start doing that" are not the same thing.  It would take at least several months more testing - that protocol would need its own Phase III trials, at least.  By the time that is complete, the other vaccines will be up in full production swing, and there should be no need to "stretch" the supply.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> ... I wonder if the higher quality might be THE difference between needing boosters and not needing them




So, first off, it isn't necessarily "higher quality".  Remember - the reported efficacy of the AZ vaccine is an average of two different dosing regimens.  One of those, alone, seemed to be 90% effective, but it wasn't a large enough part of the Phase III study to just lay claim to that number.

It may be that, with the right regimens, the three vaccines are basically equivalent in efficacy.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NotAYakk said:


> So, the point of both the mRNA and the viral-vector is to get the immune system to recognize Covid-19 proteins and kick the crap out of Covid-19.
> 
> mRNA works by using your own cells as a bioreactor.  The mRNA slides into your cells (it is wrapped in a fragile lipid package do allow that to happen).  Your cell starts producing the (utterly useless) spike protein.  Your body reacts to the foreign protein and bam, immune response.
> 
> The AZ vaccine has a modified chimpanzee virus with RNA that includes "make a spike protein".  This virus is very bad at infecting humans, but it can do a bit.  So it is injected, it infects some of your cells, and tries to make more chimpanzee virus... and while it is as it, it also makes some of the spike protein.
> 
> But because it is so so bad at infecting humans, our body wipes it out really quickly.  But it also (hopefully) picks up on that spike protein and learns "spike protein bad!"
> 
> The downsides of the AZ live vaccine include that (a) if the person is already immune to that chimpanzee virus, it won't work (this can happen if some other unrelated virus has similar antigens), (b) the person is immune to the chimpanzee virus afterwards, so it cannot be used for this technique ever again.
> 
> But in *both cases* the end goal is exposing the immune system to that spike protein and generating an immune response to it.
> 
> The double-exposure idea is that if you are exposed to a virus once, your body cleans it up and might not *remember* it as important.  When primed by one exposure, the second exposure goes into overdrive ("that wasn't just a one off thing, we are under attack!  All hands, prepare to repel future boarders!")
> 
> As *both* are trying to do the same thing, it is plausible they can work together.
> 
> One possible reason the AZ Chimp virus trick might not work is that that Chimp virus is really, really crappy at infecting humans.  So the second dose might get wiped out before it can make any spike proteins, as the immune system is primed from the *first* dose to repel it.
> 
> (This could explain why a half dose followed by a full dose could be more effective; don't prime the immune system as hard against the Chimp virus, and the 2nd invasion gets as far as making spike proteins).
> 
> But we could flip this.  Give the AZ vaccine.  Then the mRNA virus, which doesn't illicit an immune response from the Chimp virus component of the AZ vaccine, ensuring a robust immune response to the spike protein.
> 
> I am not a biologist.  This is not meant to be a convincing argument.  It is mainly meant to say why it is plausible that two different vaccine technologies could work together.
> 
> ---
> 
> The AZ vaccine's big advantage is that it is far, far more stable than the mRNA ones.
> 
> You could imagine giving someone the AZ vaccine in the field, and get them to come back in 4 weeks to get the mRNA one at a lab; half as much travel as otherwise.
> 
> But if the half-dose full-dose of the AZ vaccine is almost as effective as the mRNA one (we can't be certain due to possibility of p-hacking), then doing two passes in the field might still be better.
> 
> Also, we are getting so many different vaccine technologies coming down the pipe.  Worrying about the quirks of the first 3 might be obsolete in a few weeks.  Still, it is fun.



I was watching a couple of MDs & pharma types discussing the various vaccines- I believe it was on CNN- and someone asked about getting the Pfizer shot and following up with the Moderna shot instead of the second Pfizer injection.

They first offered the caveat that there was zero research on doing something like that, then continued.  Although they are similar, and no one thought it would be dangerous to do do, not one member of the panel thought that would be truly effective.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Are you gonna get a choice if vaccines? I assume our government will aquire some, they'll be free and you get what's available.




Maybe?  

In early phases, I suspect it will be "take what you can get" because supply will be stretched to the limit.  But for those of us who get it late in phase 3 of the vaccination plan, maybe there will be choice.  

But, most probably have no reason to exercise choice - this year, there were a few flu vaccines available, and you could request one over another.  But most just walk into their provider and say, "I want a flu shot" and get one.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

For the first time I can recall, there were some slowdowns in flu vaccinations because they were making distinctions between the standard one and the one for 60+go’s.  That caused a delay for both of my parents.

I don’t recall any other choices, though.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> They first offered the caveat that there was zero research on doing something like that...




And no company has incentive to do that research.  Why would Pfizer want to test AstraZeneca's product... and end up selling less of their own product as a result?  You'd have to wait for purely academic research to answer the question.

I ran across an analogy (so, imperfect) but it may make some sense.  Consider it like scent-training a dog.  Say you want to teach a dog to recognize and find things treated with mint extract.  You start training them on peppermint.  You do _not_, halfway through training, switch to spearmint.  They are both mints, very similar scents.  And once fully trained, a dog trained on Peppermint might find Spearmint as well.  But, if you switch it up halfway through, the slight differences may mean the dog doesn't know exactly what it is supposed to be looking for, and finds neither of them particularly well.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> For the first time I can recall, there were some slowdowns in flu vaccinations because they were making distinctions between the standard one and the one for 60+go’s.  That caused a delay for both of my parents.
> 
> I don’t recall any other choices, though.




My CVS had, I think, the higher dose for 60+, a standard (tri-valent, IIRC?) and another option (might have been bi-valent or quadri-valent).


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> So, first off, it isn't necessarily "higher quality".  Remember - the reported efficacy of the AZ vaccine is an average of two different dosing regimens.  One of those, alone, seemed to be 90% effective, but it wasn't a large enough part of the Phase III study to just lay claim to that number.
> 
> It may be that, with the right regimens, the three vaccines are basically equivalent in efficacy.



You're right. That makes it a bit preliminary and I remember reading it sounded sketchy the way its efficacy was described. Well here is hoping.

Speaking of vaccines and having unexpected impact.
There have been indications that people who have the flu vaccine recently have significantly better chances in not having severe cases and similarly the reason someone with a recent MMR vaccine. (this latter may be why kids tend to have milder cases)


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> You're right. That makes it a bit preliminary and I remember reading it sounded sketchy the way its efficacy was described. Well here is hoping.




In my reading, it has seemed less "sketchy" and more simply unexpected.



> Speaking of vaccines and having unexpected impact.
> There have been indications that people who have the flu vaccine recently have significantly better chances in not having severe cases...




Yeah.  The discussion of that I've seen is that the data isn't conclusive, but suggestive.

The most often proposed explanation has been that, if you had one of those vaccines recently, your immune system is somewhat more active in a way that helps keep down covid-19, too.  Possibly an unexpected bonus.

Folks ought to get the flu vaccine anyway, but this is a nice icing on the cake of motivations to do so.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The AZ oddity probably has something to do with having a sweet spot for dosing.  Too much, and maybe it works as poorly as too little.


----------



## Zardnaar

Germany not doing so good along with Russia. 









						Covid: Record deaths in Germany and Russia
					

Germany is facing calls for a second lockdown before Christmas.



					www.bbc.com
				



 No surprise for Russia but Germany was doing well earlier in year. 

 Hubris/complacency?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’ve seen anti-mask protests in the UK.  Maybe a similar root cause in Germany?


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’ve seen anti-mask protests in the UK.  Maybe a similar root cause in Germany?




Article says regional authorities. 

 Countries like Germany and Sweden tend to be in lists of best healthcare in the world type things and I guess they though they would be alright. 

 Throw in EU open borders, usual population whatever and perhaps a generation divide multiple levels.


----------



## CleverNickName

The first person to receive the vaccine in New York City is a nurse named Sandra Lindsay.  Last time I checked, the plan is to prioritize health care workers, the elderly, and those with high-risk medical conditions, then make it available to the general public by the end of the first quarter 2021.  I'm happy to hear that there is an end in sight.

But I don't think that things will ever go back to the way they were before the pandemic.  My gaming group is now heavily-invested in digital books, subscription fees, and audio-visual equipment.  We might be meeting up for the occasional face-to-face gaming session, but I think those will become the rare exception instead of the norm going forward.  _And I'm happy about that._  It's so much easier to game now...just log on, play some D&D, and then log off.  Nobody has to find a babysitter, nobody has to drive across town, nobody's spouse has to deal with a house full of rowdy nerds well into the wee hours of the morning.

How about you?  What Covid-19 changes are you hoping to keep, even after the pandemic is over?


----------



## BookTenTiger

CleverNickName said:


> The first person to receive the vaccine in New York City is a nurse named Sandra Lindsay.  Last time I checked, the plan is to prioritize health care workers, the elderly, and those with high-risk medical conditions, then make it available to the general public by the end of the first quarter 2021.  I'm happy to hear that there is an end in sight.
> 
> But I don't think that things will ever go back to the way they were before the pandemic.  My gaming group is now heavily-invested in digital books, subscription fees, and audio-visual equipment.  We might be meeting up for the occasional face-to-face gaming session, but I think those will become the rare exception instead of the norm going forward.  _And I'm happy about that._  It's so much easier to game now...just log on, play some D&D, and then log off.  Nobody has to find a babysitter, nobody has to drive across town, nobody's spouse has to deal with a house full of rowdy nerds well into the wee hours of the morning.
> 
> How about you?  What Covid-19 changes are you hoping to keep, even after the pandemic is over?



I am SHOCKED by how much better gaming online fits the needs of my group and myself. I still really really miss the face to face hanging out and gabbing around the table, but not having to drive anywhere has been incredible. I used to commute 45 minutes for one game, and while that's not too far getting home at 11:30 and setting my alarm for 6 was never fun.


----------



## Thomas Shey

We probably will go back pretty close to our original approach with one group; they kind of prefer getting together anyway, and there are some advantages (even though I've been using a VTT for maps and tokens and such for years now) in not depending on Internet consistency.

The other group is less clear.  Two players were remoting in already; two of the three that weren't have, at least currently, dropped out.  If they don't come back its not clear single player coming over to our house will find it worthwhile rather than just skipping with remote.

And like both of the above posters say, when it runs late, there's definitely something to be said for logging off, putting the dogs to bed and hitting it ourselves.


----------



## Umbran

CleverNickName said:


> How about you?  What Covid-19 changes are you hoping to keep, even after the pandemic is over?




Gaming-wise?  Not much.  One of my players has significant anxiety issues with video-presence, so we haven't been playing.  I expect that the online games I picked up will dissolve when the people can actually have time out in the world.

The folks I work for have been considering down-sizing the office space that we haven't been using.  I won't mind much if they go with a new space that is closer to home, as I've gotten rather used to not having a commute to work.

My wife and I have gotten a lot more strict on our meal-planning.  I expect that's going to stick around a while.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Gaming-wise?  Not much.  One of my players has significant anxiety issues with video-presence, so we haven't been playing.  I expect that the online games I picked up will dissolve when the people can actually have time out in the world.




I gather sound-only was off the table?


----------



## Hussar

I do kinda wish my uni academic writing class would stay online.  It's such a better medium for teaching writing than face to face.  So many tools for demonstrating effective writing rather than constantly dragging in some photocopies and a powerpoint presentation.  I mean, 99% of my lectures are Powerpoint presentations anyway, why not just do them over Zoom?


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> I gather sound-only was off the table?




A _lot_ of people have attention drift in audio-only games/meetings.  It was a confict we haven't been able to resolve.  I may try something after the holidays, because we are looking at another half-year before folks could get together reasonably.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

I think that it will still be a while before my "home" group returns to in-person gaming, but we may, once everyone is vaccinated. We haven't talked about it, though.

Now, my former open table at a local gaming cafe may stay online. The gaming cafe has been closed since March, and it remains unknown if they will even reopen on the other side of this. And even then, I wouldn't be comfortable running there until the case number is as near zero as possible. Even if I'm vaccinated at that point, if there's still a risk for other people, I wouldn't want other people to be put at risk as a result of my game.



CleverNickName said:


> How about you?  What Covid-19 changes are you hoping to keep, even after the pandemic is over?


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> A _lot_ of people have attention drift in audio-only games/meetings.  It was a confict we haven't been able to resolve.  I may try something after the holidays, because we are looking at another half-year before folks could get together reasonably.




I can see that, even if my personal observation has been that I've seen plenty of that in-person, so I doubt it'd be much better with video remotely, but different people are different.


----------



## Hussar

Honestly, when I first started online VTT gaming, video and voice wasn't really an option.  So, we were text only.  So long as folks have a reasonably decent typing speed, it's surprising how much fun that can be.  We had everyone with different colors and fonts.  When you don't have to do any acting, people REALLY dive into characterizing and role playing.  Sure, I can't do an accent to save my life with my voice, but, my half-ogre barbarian can *Ta' li' dis.  *

Even had some scripts for converting speech into different languages, and, once, a script for the character who had his tongue cut out.  Tons of fun.


----------



## Imaculata

My group is using audio only, via Discord, while using roll20 to run the game. It works fine, but the 3.5 math is a bit more of a hassle when you have to do it online. We use macros, but it still is a bit cumbersome.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Hussar said:


> Honestly, when I first started online VTT gaming, video and voice wasn't really an option.  So, we were text only.  So long as folks have a reasonably decent typing speed, it's surprising how much fun that can be.  We had everyone with different colors and fonts.  When you don't have to do any acting, people REALLY dive into characterizing and role playing.  Sure, I can't do an accent to save my life with my voice, but, my half-ogre barbarian can *Ta' li' dis.  *
> 
> Even had some scripts for converting speech into different languages, and, once, a script for the character who had his tongue cut out.  Tons of fun.




I'll note that some of my absolute best roleplaying has been in text-only environments.  But it does take some getting used to, and is beyond some people's functional capabilities to keep up with the text chain.  Its honestly the only reason I don't run my VTT games that way.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Imaculata said:


> My group is using audio only, via Discord, while using roll20 to run the game. It works fine, but the 3.5 math is a bit more of a hassle when you have to do it online. We use macros, but it still is a bit cumbersome.




Can you unpack why you think so?  Honestly, the only mechanical thing I've found problematic in online play is games with card play.


----------



## Imaculata

Thomas Shey said:


> Can you unpack why you think so?  Honestly, the only mechanical thing I've found problematic in online play is games with card play.




Well, at higher levels there are a lot of possible attack bonuses and damage bonuses. Typing that all manually slows down play. We've tried simplifying it with macros, but that leads to numerous question boxes (flanking: yes/no, power attack: yes/no, 2nd attack: yes, no, etc.). The character sheets in roll20 can automate this a bit, but the character sheets for 3.5 have bugs in them, which we frequently run into.


----------



## Istbor

Well one of them was going on well before the pandemic struck, so I think that game will persist as it always has. Voice over a separate medium (currently discord) and playing via Roll20. 

I know my in person group is itching to get back into play, and while we have done a couple really short stints of other adventures online, I know a couple of them simply want to get together and hang out while playing like we had done prior. It is still going to be a long haul until that point. 

I am sure some things will stay the same going forward, in gaming and in the rest of the world, I am just not sure yet which will be sticking in there. I am excited to find out.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Imaculata said:


> Well, at higher levels there are a lot of possible attack bonuses and damage bonuses. Typing that all manually slows down play. We've tried simplifying it with macros, but that leads to numerous question boxes (flanking: yes/no, power attack: yes/no, 2nd attack: yes, no, etc.). The character sheets in roll20 can automate this a bit, but the character sheets for 3.5 have bugs in them, which we frequently run into.




Ah, I always forget a lot of people are assuming the mechanics is direction entered into the VTT in one fashion or another rather than just handled manually and the output shown.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Yeah, I've played in some online games where the interface really got in the way of the game (Looking at you Fantasy Grounds). I run things fairly bare bones with Discord & the Avrae bot (though some players do opt for full D&D Beyond integration), and even then we still stumble on a command now and then.

My wife just found out she had a possible Covid exposure at the salon she works for. A client tested positive after an appointment about a week ago. Fortunately, both of them were wearing masks and my wife also had a PPE on. Still, she has to cancel all her appointments for a while and schedule a Covid test.


----------



## Eltab

Ralif Redhammer said:


> My wife just found out she had a possible Covid exposure at the salon she works for. A client tested positive after an appointment about a week ago. Fortunately, both of them were wearing masks and my wife also had a PPE on. Still, she has to cancel all her appointments for a while and schedule a Covid test.



Hopefully her immune system beat off however much she was exposed to, the test comes back clear, and this will turn out to be a 'false alarm'.


----------



## Imaculata

Yeah, I hope she is alright and remains so.


----------



## Zardnaar

Covid-19: Melbourne towers lockdown 'breached human rights'
					

A rushed lockdown of nine tower blocks in Melbourne due to an outbreak of coronavirus breached human rights laws, an ombudsman has found.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Melbourne lockdown breached human rights. 

 But it worked so.....

 And for economic arguements against lockdowns. 









						GDP jump of 14 per cent completes NZ's 'V'-shaped recovery
					

Stats NZ reports a record rise in economic activity in the September quarter.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 New projections are after Covid we will have less debt to gdp, unemployment etc than a few countries before Covid. 

  Australia has had some cases of community spread but apparently their economy is doing reasonably alright as well despite China's fun and games.

 Vaccinations starting next year looks like we're gonna use 3 of them plus help out a few of out Pacific neighbours. 









						Govt secures another two Covid-19 vaccines, PM says every New Zealander will be able to be vaccinated
					

The government has secured another two vaccines, enough for every New Zealander and its Pacific partners, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Avatar 2&3 more or less done filming here as well.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Thanks for the well-wishing! She spoke with her doctor today and they said as long as she (and by extension, me) isolates for ten days (only three more to go at this point), as long as she's not showing symptoms (which so far, she isn't), she should be fine, no test required. Since it just dumped nine inches of snow on our city and the roads are a mess, it's not like going anywhere is all that appealing right now anyway.

Let me take this occasion to reiterate: wear a mask, people. If my wife gets out of this scot-free, it is likely because both parties were masked up.



Eltab said:


> Hopefully her immune system beat off however much she was exposed to, the test comes back clear, and this will turn out to be a 'false alarm'.






Imaculata said:


> Yeah, I hope she is alright and remains so.


----------



## GreyLord

Once me and the groups I play with are all vaccinated, as long as it works for awhile, I am absolutely going to get back together with them to play over the table.  It's one of the things I'm completely looking forward to.  Gaming online works, but I just miss the game table a LOT.

That said, I'll probably keep some of the digital items we've picked up for reference while in this pandemic, but overall, I want to get back to in person gaming.

PS: Not sure, but depending on how soon and what's going on, if everyone get's vaccinated but it's still unclear how long the vaccinations will last, we might see how it goes if we meet social distancing and wearing masks...not sure how that will feel though.


----------



## Thomas Shey

GreyLord said:


> PS: Not sure, but depending on how soon and what's going on, if everyone get's vaccinated but it's still unclear how long the vaccinations will last, we might see how it goes if we meet social distancing and wearing masks...not sure how that will feel though.





Do you actually have the interior space to make that work?  That'd be the problem with most people even if they wanted to do that right now.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Not too practical in the northern hemisphere _right now,_ but there’s nothing wrong with setting up some folding chairs & TV trays on the lawn and do socially distant gaming that way.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not too practical in the northern hemisphere _right now,_ but there’s nothing wrong with setting up some folding chairs & TV trays on the lawn and do socially distant gaming that way.




In principal I agree, but the couple times I've tried it over the years, wind became an issue.  Maybe if you're in a place that's dry but doesn't have much wind.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> In principal I agree, but the couple times I've tried it over the years, wind became an issue.  Maybe if you're in a place that's dry but doesn't have much wind.




 Can't really do it here unless shaded. Even without the wind the sun will blister you.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> Can't really do it here unless shaded. Even without the wind the sun will blister you.




Parts of the year its that way here, too.  We get pretty mild springs and falls, but--wind.  Not constant, but common enough to be an issue.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Good point.  Forgot about wind.  But then again, all of my character sheets have been electronic for more than a decade, now.  

Wind could still turn pages, of course, but a good clip-on bookmark or a paperweight could take care of that.

Critters & precipitation, OTOH...


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Good point.  Forgot about wind.  But then again, all of my character sheets have been electronic for more than a decade, now.
> 
> Wind could still turn pages, of course, but a good clip-on bookmark or a paperweight could take care of that.
> 
> Critters & precipitation, OTOH...




 Hole in ozone layer over Australia/NZ. 15 minutes can burn you, I've blistered my skin before. 

 Heatwave this week hit 35 Celsius in parts.


----------



## Imaculata

The Dutch government just announced a new lock down, as a response to their own inability to get the epidemic under control. The lockdown means all none essential businesses will need to close down till januari, and people are discouraged (but not mandated) to limit their none essential travel. All schools will close, and parents will need to homeschool their kids. But, here's the kicker, churches will remain open! Yes, why close a none essential service that has people gathering on a large scale, when you've already f'd up so massively? And still only advises, not mandates?

Our prime minister announced his new weak lockdown amidst loud protests outside his building, which were audible during his speech. This prompted a well known Dutch satirical website to report that he may have accidentally left Rollercoaster Tycoon on during his speech.


----------



## ccs

Thomas Shey said:


> Do you actually have the interior space to make that work?  That'd be the problem with most people even if they wanted to do that right now.



I could make that work.  I have a big old Victorian era farmhouse (and the farm to go with it)




My living room (everything just left of the ugly double storm doors) is bigger than some people entire apartments.  We could easily be 6+ ft away from each other. 
My place is not at all the most central location though.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not too practical in the northern hemisphere _right now,_ but there’s nothing wrong with setting up some folding chairs & TV trays on the lawn and do socially distant gaming that way.



Once it got warm in Massachusetts, this is what one group I play with did.  The group comes from only two households, and we kept distance.  Wind was in issue on one session.  A couple of times we had ty reschedule because of rain.  But, overall, it worked pretty well.


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> The Dutch government just announced a new lock down, as a response to their own inability to get the epidemic under control.




The government, alone, cannot get the epidemic under control.  We are seeing that play out painfully here in the US.



Imaculata said:


> But, here's the kicker, churches will remain open! Yes, why close a none essential service that has people gathering on a large scale, when you've already f'd up so massively? And still only advises, not mandates?




Sometimes, law gets in the way of what appears to be a smart move.  In the US, for example, trying to close churches tends to open your orders up to legal challenges, which nobody needs.



Imaculata said:


> Our prime minister announced his new weak lockdown amidst loud protests outside his building, which were audible during his speech.




So, yeah, this is what I mean when I say the government alone cannot defeat the epidemic, at least not in a nominally free country.  If folks are going to fight against the attempts to control the epidemic, those attempts are apt to fail.

Humans are very, very good at acting against their own best interests.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Good point.  Forgot about wind.  But then again, all of my character sheets have been electronic for more than a decade, now.
> 
> Wind could still turn pages, of course, but a good clip-on bookmark or a paperweight could take care of that.
> 
> Critters & precipitation, OTOH...




I run to the digital too, but then that starts to get into the issue of power supply; I don't actually have much that'd last the duration of most games I run without exterior power.

Fortunately, rain is only something we have to deal with a fairly small part of the year here.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Imaculata said:


> The Dutch government just announced a new lock down, as a response to their own inability to get the epidemic under control. The lockdown means all none essential businesses will need to close down till januari, and people are discouraged (but not mandated) to limit their none essential travel. All schools will close, and parents will need to homeschool their kids. But, here's the kicker, churches will remain open! Yes, why close a none essential service that has people gathering on a large scale, when you've already f'd up so massively? And still only advises, not mandates?




Well, if its anything like the U.S., because the pushback on the part of churches and people supporting them is a constant fight.  Its enough of an uphill battle with outdoor dining.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> The government, alone, cannot get the epidemic under control.  We are seeing that play out painfully here in the US.
> 
> 
> 
> Sometimes, law gets in the way of what appears to be a smart move.  In the US, for example, trying to close churches tends to open your orders up to legal challenges, which nobody needs.
> 
> 
> 
> So, yeah, this is what I mean when I say the government alone cannot defeat the epidemic, at least not in a nominally free country.  If folks are going to fight against the attempts to control the epidemic, those attempts are apt to fail.
> 
> Humans are very, very good at acting against their own best interests.




 Australia violated human rights in its lockdown apparently. Nothing overly cruel just made people stay in a tower. 

 Government here just over rode the local council. 









						Commissioner for Tauranga as councillors' pleas to stay in charge prove futile
					

Tauranga City councillors suggested a Crown manager and observer should oversee their work. Nanaia Mahuta wasn't having it.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 She also hand picked her cabinet which hadn't been done since 1938. 

  As far as I can tell our human rights act isn't really worth the paper it's written on, Australia never been super great at it. 

 Useful in a pandemic though.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Government here just over rode the local council.




Yes, and then, by and large, folks _obeyed_ the orders, did they not?

In the end that's the key - not the government, but the people _accepting and complying_.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Yes, and then, by and large, folks _obeyed_ the orders, did they not?
> 
> In the end that's the key - not the government, but the people _accepting and complying_.




 Pretty much they obeyed yes. I don't tend to blame polititian to much (unless they pull a 180). They're just a reflection of the Electorate.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> The government, alone, cannot get the epidemic under control.  We are seeing that play out painfully here in the US.



The government in the us shouted mixed messages from day one... hardly a good example


----------



## GreyLord

Thomas Shey said:


> Do you actually have the interior space to make that work?  That'd be the problem with most people even if they wanted to do that right now.



Yes, I do.

I have an expandable table normally a 6x4, but can be expanded to a 6x12 that could seat 6 people spaced out 6 feet apart.  I have a few rooms that are 20x30 in size, which while it doesn't allow 500 sq feet per person, it does allow for 6 foot spacing between people.  With masks on, and vaccinated, hopefully that fulfills most of the ideas (less than 10 people meeting, 6 foot spacing and masks).  

I suppose if worst comes to worst, one of my friends has a garage which is a 2000 foot garage with a 20 foot ceiling, which gives a lot of space for at least 4 people if we wanted 500 feet available...if that's how we wanted to do it.



Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not too practical in the northern hemisphere _right now,_ but there’s nothing wrong with setting up some folding chairs & TV trays on the lawn and do socially distant gaming that way.




This too, hadn't thought about that, but it would work


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

One man is on a mission to identify the masks that offer the best protection from COVID-19. Here's what he found.
					

Aaron Collins is helping Americans find high-quality face masks that will protect them and others from COVID-19 without taking supplies away from frontline medical workers.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## MarkB

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not too practical in the northern hemisphere _right now,_ but there’s nothing wrong with setting up some folding chairs & TV trays on the lawn and do socially distant gaming that way.



Aside from not having a lawn myself, I'm not sure I'd be up to sharing our gaming shenanigans with every neighbour in hearing range.


----------



## Umbran

Ugh.

I've mentioned before that my wife is a veterinarian.  She runs a house-call-only practice, which I have to say has been a challenge with covid.  For the spring, summer, and winter, she's been doing medicine outside, which is awkward, but has functioned.  Now, there's a foot of snow on the ground, which makes that a real challenge.

when deciding who was an "essential worker" in terms of reopening and getting back to work, our state classified Veterinarians in with agricultural workers as "necessary".  But, in terms of getting vaccinated... she's ranked down at the bottom (with me - I'm an officer-worker type, and can and do work from my house).

Other states have figured out that veterianrians are health care workers, and need to be vaccinated early. But Massachusetts? Nope. _sigh_.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Umbran said:


> Ugh.
> 
> I've mentioned before that my wife is a veterinarian.  She runs a house-call-only practice, which I have to say has been a challenge with covid.  For the spring, summer, and winter, she's been doing medicine outside, which is awkward, but has functioned.  Now, there's a foot of snow on the ground, which makes that a real challenge.
> 
> when deciding who was an "essential worker" in terms of reopening and getting back to work, our state classified Veterinarians in with agricultural workers as "necessary".  But, in terms of getting vaccinated... she's ranked down at the bottom (with me - I'm an officer-worker type, and can and do work from my house).
> 
> Other states have figured out that veterianrians are health care workers, and need to be vaccinated early. But Massachusetts? Nope. _sigh_.



My partner is an infectious disease doctor taking consultations and going into the hospital this week to work with COVID patients.

She is somehow in the B category for the vaccine.

???


----------



## Eltab

Brazilian President Bolansaro took up then fumbled an opportunity:
He was going to get vaccinated first.  He had had COVID a while ago, and said that he could wait because he had antibodies.  So far so good.  

Alas he did not announce that he would donate his shot to a charitable case, but instead created some kind of hyperbolic complaint about lawsuits and alligators.
(I suspect the translation from Portugese to English did him no favors and compounded the foot-in-mouth event.)


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Garthanos said:


> The government in the us [] ... hardly a good example




Yes.


(edit: there is a sense of sadness and frustration that comes when one's individual efforts are not matched within the community, and knowing that the efforts within the community are consistently undermined by the government. I wonder about our continued capacity to solve issues that require collective action, when something like a pandemic can prove so divisive instead of uniting us against a common threat.)


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Ugh.
> 
> I've mentioned before that my wife is a veterinarian.  She runs a house-call-only practice, which I have to say has been a challenge with covid.  For the spring, summer, and winter, she's been doing medicine outside, which is awkward, but has functioned.  Now, there's a foot of snow on the ground, which makes that a real challenge.
> 
> when deciding who was an "essential worker" in terms of reopening and getting back to work, our state classified Veterinarians in with agricultural workers as "necessary".  But, in terms of getting vaccinated... she's ranked down at the bottom (with me - I'm an officer-worker type, and can and do work from my house).
> 
> Other states have figured out that veterianrians are health care workers, and need to be vaccinated early. But Massachusetts? Nope. _sigh_.




That's dumb as a box of rocks.


----------



## Garthanos

Snarf Zagyg said:


> I wonder about our continued capacity to solve issues that require collective action, when something like a pandemic can prove so divisive instead of uniting us against a common threat.)



 It was leveraged into divisiveness by straight up lies which were then followed up with erratic reinforcement, leadership really does mean something


----------



## Istbor

Didn't sleep well. Work was stupid busy, and on top of that I read about a new possible COVID-19 strain that is supposedly more infectious. I am going to be looking into this more to see what happens. And trust in some of the experts that think our efforts with the vaccine will not be thwarted.

2020 is not pulling any punches.


----------



## Garthanos

Istbor said:


> Didn't sleep well. Work was stupid busy, and on top of that I read about a new possible COVID-19 strain that is supposedly more infectious. I am going to be looking into this more to see what happens. And trust in some of the experts that think our efforts with the vaccine will not be thwarted.
> 
> 2020 is not pulling any punches.



in the UK I think it was.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Garthanos said:


> in the UK I think it was.




Yes.  The early information is that it seems to spread better but there's no reason to believe that it'll not be effected by the vaccines, but the story is still developing.


----------



## Zardnaar

Last I heard it's already in other nations outside UK.  Australia was one of them.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Last I heard it's already in other nations outside UK.  Australia was one of them.




CNN currently says: 
_"As well as the UK, the variant has also been detected in Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands and Australia, according to the WHO.

Australia has identified two cases of the variant in a quarantined area in Sydney and Italy has also identified one patient infected with the variant."_


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> CNN currently says:
> _"As well as the UK, the variant has also been detected in Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands and Australia, according to the WHO.
> 
> Australia has identified two cases of the variant in a quarantined area in Sydney and Italy has also identified one patient infected with the variant."_




 Sounds similar to what I read two days ago. Just couldn't remember the other nations. 

 It's expected to reach here.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/12/20/new-covid-mutation-uk/
		


 Similar list and a maybe in South Africa.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Oof, just found out someone I work with got a positive COVID test. I was with them on campus last week, though I didn't have much contact, so I don't think I'm at much risk. Still, I'm batting down the hatches as much as possible. The woman is pregnant, too, so I hope she is asymptomatic!


----------



## Istbor

Garthanos said:


> in the UK I think it was.



Heard that too. Had read it might have also been in South Africa, and recall seeing something like Umbran's list as well. I am crossing my figures that there isn't something too divergent out there.

I simply want the quickest safest path to seeing my D&D buddies again. Not to mention and end to all this extra work the pandemic has saddled me with. @.@


----------



## MarkB

The government here in the UK has been really ham-handed about handling the pandemic over the past few months. There's no real co-ordination between England, Wales and Scotland even though we share open borders, and they forged ahead with their yes-you-can-all-visit-your-relatives plan for Christmas despite serious spikes in cases. With the new variant of the virus, they've basically had to admit that their three-tier system of threat levels is broken, by inventing a whole new fourth tier.

If this new strain is as infectious as reported, I don't see us having any choice but to go into a full lockdown in the style of the one introduced in March, probably for multiple months - though no doubt they'll try to put off actually doing it until after the holidays if they can. Combine that with the import/export chaos caused by Brexit negotiations, now exacerbated by Europe closing their borders with us, and we'll probably see some serious shortages real soon now. The news announcers made a special point of telling us that there's no need to start panic buying, which means that people will probably immediately start panic buying.


----------



## ccs

MarkB said:


> . The news announcers made a special point of telling us that there's no need to start panic buying, which means that people will probably immediately start panic buying.




The smart people have probably already started stockpiling.


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> The smart people have probably already started stockpiling.




 Started didn't finish. 

 Just in case. Watched a prepper video so rotating food stock and keeping more canned food on hand.

 Local toilet paper factory donates the factory seconds to charity to sell so bought that.


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Started didn't finish.
> 
> Just in case. Watched a prepoer video so rortating food stock and keeping more canned food on hand.
> 
> Local toilet paper factory donates the factory seconds to charity to sell so bought that.



Yep.  
Food wise I'm good for 4-6 months.  Here in Nov/Dec I've been quietly stocking up my pantry & filling an industrial size freezer 
And this coming week I'll be laying in the usual years worth of dry goods - the toilet paper, laundry soap, etc etc etc. (I HATE shopping for this stuff throughout the year.  The only thing different here is I'm about 3 weeks ahead of when I usually do that bulk shopping.)

The only reason I'll have to go food/supply shopping in the near future is for the truly perishable stuff or if I want something different.


----------



## GreyLord

Well, I've heard all transport too and from the UK is in trouble currently, and pictures have been posted of Dover/Kent and the enormous lines there...almost all freight (trucks which have things they are carrying).

France has apparently agreed to relax the restrictions, but it appears it will still be rough getting the traffic through in a timely manner.

Hope everyone has food enough and ready for any delays.  Stay Safe and healthy everyone.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Yeah, the data coming out now seems to suggest that was probably an overreaction, but it was a decision made when no one was too clear on how much of an additional problem the new strain was, so its mostly understandable.


----------



## Garthanos

Thomas Shey said:


> Yeah, the data coming out now seems to suggest that was probably an overreaction, but it was a decision made when no one was too clear on how much of an additional problem the new strain was, so its mostly understandable.



So far I have read medical types say the vaccines "might" still cover the new strain but too soon to be certain.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> So far I have read medical types say the vaccines "might" still cover the new strain but too soon to be certain.




Dr Fauci has noted it is more like "probably".  Vaccines produce "polyclonal" antibody response - meaning that it doesn't produce a single kind of antibody, but several different ones.  The new strain has to change enough to get past several of the antibodies produced before the vaccine loses effectiveness.

Now, that can happen, so he's not saying we are off scott free yet, but the odds are good the current vaccines will still be effective.


----------



## Thomas Shey

The phrasing I'd seen was "We have no reason to believe at this time that the vaccines will not be effective against this strain, too."  Which doesn't translate into certainty, obviously, but does mean it'd be the unexpected case.  In particular, from what I understand, unless the spike proteins are significantly different, it should maintain at least some efficacy.

As I've noted before, though, this is a developing story.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

And with other vaccines in the pipeline, odds are decent that one will be effective enough.

I have to say, it’s a big win for science for developing the first *proven* vaccine against a coronavirus.  Especially in the light of at least 1-2 others getting approval and possibly more on the way.   (The one for SARS didn’t get released because the disease vanished before deployment.)  That could bode well for fighting coronaviruses in the future.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Dr Fauci has noted it is more like "probably".  Vaccines produce "polyclonal" antibody response - meaning that it doesn't produce a single kind of antibody, but several different ones.  The new strain has to change enough to get past several of the antibodies produced before the vaccine loses effectiveness.
> 
> Now, that can happen, so he's not saying we are off scott free yet, but the odds are good the current vaccines will still be effective.



Nods and as evidence for most vaccines we already have like the Flu they will reduce the impact/danger even when they arent good enough to prevent the problem


----------



## embee

MarkB said:


> Aside from not having a lawn myself, I'm not sure I'd be up to sharing our gaming shenanigans with every neighbour in hearing range.




Just get creative...

Come on down to my suburban homestead. 

I'll put some logs in the firepit and we can all do a theater of the mind Icewind Dale session. Shouldn't be too much of a problem. We have owls and we have bears but we don't have owlbears.


----------



## ccs

embee said:


> Just get creative...
> 
> Come on down to my suburban homestead.
> 
> I'll put some logs in the firepit and we can all do a theater of the mind Icewind Dale session. Shouldn't be too much of a problem. We have owls and we have bears but we don't have owlbears.




How about freezing weather & snow?


----------



## embee

ccs said:


> How about freezing weather & snow?



Oh we most definitely have that. 

But, on the upside, it makes brewing sahti easy, knowing I can just put the wort kettle into a snow bank to chill.


----------



## Zardnaar

One in a thousand RIP.









						One in 1,000 Americans have died from Covid-19
					

More than 330,000 people in the US have died from coronavirus




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Garthanos

I like D&D because in it my enemies are ameniable to direct address via sword work


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The vaccines cannot be produced fast enough, considering the things we’re finding C19 can do to people.  A new possible addition: causing psychosis, even in those with otherwise mild symptoms. Research is still ongoing, but they note that post-infection psychosis has been a symptom in some other viral diseases, like the 1918 flu, MERS and SARS.









						Small Number of COVID Patients Develop Severe Psychotic Symptoms
					

Almost immediately, Dr. Hisam Goueli could tell that the patient who came to his psychiatric hospital on Long Island this summer was unusual.The patient, a 42-year-old physical therapist and mother of four young children, had never had psychiatric symptoms or any family history of mental...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Istbor

Sometimes Danny I wish your posts were just a bad dream. 

This is one of those posts.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Istbor said:


> Sometimes Danny I wish your posts were just a bad dream.



You & me both.


----------



## Garthanos

Watched a video pointing out that epidemiologists do not consider this "the big one" but rather just a smaller taste of the possible.


----------



## ccs

Garthanos said:


> Watched a video pointing out that epidemiologists do not consider this "the big one" but rather just a smaller taste of the possible.




Yep, just wait for the sequel...


----------



## Imaculata

Zardnaar said:


> One in a thousand RIP.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> One in 1,000 Americans have died from Covid-19
> 
> 
> More than 330,000 people in the US have died from coronavirus
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.independent.co.uk




And the numbers didn't have to be this high. I wish all the people responsible would be helt accountable for this, including all the state governors following the Jaws playbook.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dad’s probably getting his first injection this weekend.  

And coincidentally, a 5th (6th?) vaccine is getting human trials happening just down the road in Fort Worth, run by some researchers he knows.  He’s not in the loop, so I doubt he’ll get any inside info, but if he does, I’ll pass along anything I can.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Damn it.  I hope the district attorneys in that jurisdiction are rabid bulldogs.


----------



## Imaculata

You have got to be kidding! They spoiled the vaccines on purpose?! To what end?!


----------



## Garthanos

Imaculata said:


> You have got to be kidding! They spoiled the vaccines on purpose?! To what end?!



could be anti-vaxxers who knows rationality is not pervasive.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Damn it.  I hope the district attorneys in that jurisdiction are rabid bulldogs.




Hm.  What do you get them on, though?  Destruction of property?  Reckless endangerment?

Wait to see if any of the 500 or so people whose vaccines are delayed by this gets covid-19, then nail him on some form of attempted manslaughter?


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Hm.  What do you get them on, though?  Destruction of property?  Reckless endangerment?
> 
> Wait to see if any of the 500 or so people whose vaccines are delayed by this gets covid-19, then nail him on some form of attempted manslaughter?



I'd think "destruction of property", as you said, which is a Class A misdemeanor.

_"Class A misdemeanors, the most serious misdemeanor crimes in Wisconsin, are punishable by up to 9 months in jail, a fine of up to $10,000, or both jail and a fine. Theft of property worth less than $2,500 is a Class A misdemeanor. (Wis. Stat. § 939.51 (2019).)"_


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> I'd think "destruction of property", as you said, which is a Class A misdemeanor.
> 
> _"Class A misdemeanors, the most serious misdemeanor crimes in Wisconsin, are punishable by up to 9 months in jail, a fine of up to $10,000, or both jail and a fine. Theft of property worth less than $2,500 is a Class A misdemeanor. (Wis. Stat. § 939.51 (2019).)"_




Pfizer is charging $20 per dose.  There were something like 500+ doses in those vials, so that was some $10K worth of stuff destroyed.  In Wisconsin (following your link), that's a Class H or G Felony - imprisonment for no more than 6 or 10 _years_ respectively.


----------



## Imaculata

Considering the health crisis, I hope they demand the maximum sentence. People's lives depend on getting these vaccines as soon as possible.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Pfizer is charging $20 per dose.  There were something like 500+ doses in those vials, so that was some $10K worth of stuff destroyed.  In Wisconsin (following your link), that's a Class H or G Felony - imprisonment for no more than 6 or 10 _years_ respectively.



It would be nice to see someone who did something that evil get the charge and conviction that they truly deserve. Given the way that things generally seem to go, however, a plea deal for the misdemeanor would be far more likely.

... unless this gets serious national attention. Can we somehow make this get serious national attention?


----------



## BookTenTiger

BookTenTiger said:


> My partner is an infectious disease doctor taking consultations and going into the hospital this week to work with COVID patients.
> 
> She is somehow in the B category for the vaccine.
> 
> ???



Good news, she got an email yesterday to sign up for her first shot!

Now we will find out how long it'll take for me as a teacher to get my first shot.

We have always joked that between myself as an elementary school teacher and my partner as an Infectious Disease Doctor, we would either be the first to go in a pandemic or the only ones immune. Now I just feel lucky we were not exposed before the true spread of COVID was publicly known.


----------



## Istbor

Imaculata said:


> You have got to be kidding! They spoiled the vaccines on purpose?! To what end?!



Apologies, some of my fellow Wisconsinites are not all there on good days. 

Knowing what I know about people in the more conservative or rural areas of the state, this sadly isn't as shocking as it should be.


----------



## Istbor

Some people just don't believe this is a big deal. I can't count how often the discussion instead turns to how damaging the lockdowns are to people compared to the disease. There is no real talk about how really, both are terrible. 

I also often hear people, either sarcastically or not, talk about how funny it is that no one has died of old age this year. So essentially doubts that what we see as COVID deaths are actually accurate, but instead inflated. 

It is difficult to address those positions or thoughts without others seeing it as an attack of what they believe though as well. Of course people have died of old age or heart attacks this year. Maybe it would help if it is explained that COVID was the reason the body got to that state that the person died, or break it down in some way about how a person may have died due to internal bleeding, but it was that bus that smacked them that 'killed' them.  Once you start down that road though, you can see some people just shutdown, and no longer wish to listen. They have their ideas on the matter, and they are concrete.


----------



## Ryujin

Istbor said:


> Some people just don't believe this is a big deal. I can't count how often the discussion instead turns to how damaging the lockdowns are to people compared to the disease. There is no real talk about how really, both are terrible.
> 
> I also often hear people, either sarcastically or not, talk about how funny it is that no one has died of old age this year. So essentially doubts that what we see as COVID deaths are actually accurate, but instead inflated.
> 
> It is difficult to address those positions or thoughts without others seeing it as an attack of what they believe though as well. Of course people have died of old age or heart attacks this year. Maybe it would help if it is explained that COVID was the reason the body got to that state that the person died, or break it down in some way about how a person may have died due to internal bleeding, but it was that bus that smacked them that 'killed' them.  Once you start down that road though, you can see some people just shutdown, and no longer wish to listen. They have their ideas on the matter, and they are concrete.



One of the things that was floating around social media, a few months back, was a claim that only something like 7,500 people had "actually" died of Covid-19, because the people pushing that agenda discounted anyone with _ANY_ sort of co-morbidity at all. If I have high blood pressure and could live for the next 20 years with medication, but get taken down by Covid, then it's Covid that killed me. If I'm 80 years old and generally healthy, but get Covid and die, it wasn't old age that killed me. Some people refuse to accept that sort of simple logic, because it's an affront to their deeply held beliefs.


----------



## billd91

Ryujin said:


> . Some people refuse to accept that sort of simple logic, because it's an affront to their deeply held beliefs.



Trouble is, many of those “deeply held beliefs” tend to flip and flop depending on the political stands of the partisan groups with which they identify. So it’s often less about deeply held beliefs as much as tightly held identities.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Hm.  What do you get them on, though?  Destruction of property?  Reckless endangerment?
> 
> Wait to see if any of the 500 or so people whose vaccines are delayed by this gets covid-19, then nail him on some form of attempted manslaughter?



My Crim Law professor was a rabid bulldog.  His motto was charge people with the most aggressive thing you could justify and work down from there.  My guess is *he’d* start with a bunch of charges of attempted murder, given the context of the pandemic.

It depends on mostly on Wisconsin law, of course, but there’s also 18 U.S. Code § 670.Theft of medical products.








						18 U.S. Code § 670 -  Theft of medical products
					






					www.law.cornell.edu
				




Note here:


> (b)Aggravated Offenses.—An offense under this section is an aggravated offense if—
> (1)
> the defendant is employed by, or is an agent of, an organization in the supply chain for the pre-retail medical product; or
> (2)the violation—
> (A)
> involves the use of violence, force, or a threat of violence or force;
> (B)
> involves the use of a deadly weapon;
> (C)
> results in serious bodily injury or death, including serious bodily injury or death resulting from the use of the medical product involved; or
> (D)
> is subsequent to a prior conviction for an offense under this section.



Max penalty of 20 years in jail and $1M fine For the aggravated offense.  Not clear as to how one calculates the number of offenses, here, though.  Is it per overall act?  Per vial?  Per DOSE?

(I could research this, but its literally someone else’s job, and we’ll find out eventually.)


----------



## Mikeythorn

Istbor said:


> I also often hear people, either sarcastically or not, talk about how funny it is that no one has died of old age this year. So essentially doubts that what we see as COVID deaths are actually accurate, but instead inflated.



No-one dies of “old age”, legally at least. The mechanism of death must be included on a death certificate - and certainly in New Zealand the law requires that this has to be a specific disease or injury (or a combination of either). I imagine most parts of the world have the same requirements.


----------



## billd91

Current developments in the vaccine destruction case:








						Pharmacist Arrested, Accused Of Destroying More Than 500 Moderna Vaccine Doses
					

The now-fired hospital employee later said he knew "that people who received the vaccinations would think they had been vaccinated against the virus when in fact they were not," investigators said.




					www.npr.org
				




There’ve been weirdly politicized pharmacists in the state before trying to get legal exceptions for filling prescriptions they don’t like (read as involving female fertility control and you’re on the money). I take a *dim* view of those shenanigans and hope they throw as big a book as they can justify at him.


----------



## Umbran

Mikeythorn said:


> No-one dies of “old age”, legally at least.




Excellent point.  "Old age" is not a disease.  People die of heart failure, kidney failure, cancer, lung disease, from infections their bodies don't fight off, and so on.  But no doctor writes "old age" on a death certificate.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

billd91 said:


> Current developments in the vaccine destruction case:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pharmacist Arrested, Accused Of Destroying More Than 500 Moderna Vaccine Doses
> 
> 
> The now-fired hospital employee later said he knew "that people who received the vaccinations would think they had been vaccinated against the virus when in fact they were not," investigators said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There’ve been weirdly politicized pharmacists in the state before trying to get legal exceptions for filling prescriptions they don’t like (read as involving female fertility control and you’re on the money). I take a *dim* view of those shenanigans and hope they throw as big a book as they can justify at him.



I note that 57 people were given injections from that batch, and that officials were charging him with adulterating a pharmaceutical among other things.

I know that past cases involving adulterated cancer meds have resulted in serious jail time and billions in fines under federal laws- others in addition to the one I cited before.  His offense won’t get into those stratospheric regions, but he’s definitely facing serious state (and probably federal) jail time and fines,

And if any of the 57 die from C19?  I predict ruinous wrongful death suits.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> One of the things that was floating around social media, a few months back, was a claim that only something like 7,500 people had "actually" died of Covid-19, because the people pushing that agenda discounted anyone with _ANY_ sort of co-morbidity at all. If I have high blood pressure and could live for the next 20 years with medication, but get taken down by Covid, then it's Covid that killed me. If I'm 80 years old and generally healthy, but get Covid and die, it wasn't old age that killed me. Some people refuse to accept that sort of simple logic, because it's an affront to their deeply held beliefs.




Yeah, people really aren't clear on the idea of co-morbidities.  It was instructive over the years to look at the difference between the death certificates of my parents.  My father had basically one cause; if there were any other that were a factor, they were considered trivial.  My mother, on the other hand, had a primary cause, and about a half dozen other things listed.

_But that did not mean the primary cause was incorrect._  It just meant the others contributed to the problem.  That's the whole reason some people are at more risk from COVID than others.


----------



## NotAYakk

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
		


That is interesting.  Know the "52% effective after first shot" thing?

They basically measured every infection from the moment you got the shot to the time you got the 2nd shot.  Almost all of those infections occurred in the first week and a half.

If you look at the actual graph there is a really clear bend at 12 days:




in both mRNA vaccine trials.

The 2nd dose was given at 21 or 28 days.  If the vaccine became effective at day 10, and utterly ineffective before then (as the above suggests), and infections where pretty linear over that period, that 52% gives us:

[ (10 * K) + (21-10)*(E*K) ] / (21 * K) = 0.52

where K is the baseline infection rate and E is how effective the vaccine is (lower is better).

Solving for E we get:

(10 * K) + (21-10)*(E*K)   = 0.52 * (21 * K)
10 + (21-10)*E   = 10.92
(11)*E   = 0.92
E = 0.08
ie, 92% effective.

To find out where the point where it is actually 90%+ effective is going to require more stats math than I know, but the point of this isn't that it *is* 90%+ effective after a week and a half, but rather that it is very plausible that this is true. What more, it is more than plausible that by 2 weeks it is 90%+ effective.

what more, those are the *diagnosed days* -- typically people don't get a positive test until 3-5 days after infection.

Which means that the mRNA vaccines might be hitting 90%+ effectiveness within a week after being injected.

There is also no apparent change in the slope (in either vaccine trial) after 21 or 28 days.  Quote plausibly the 2nd shot might not be needed, or it might be needed to extend protection.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Quote plausibly the 2nd shot might not be needed, or it might be needed to extend protection.




So, let us be clear: *there is NOTHING in that data set to suggest the second dose isn't necessary.*   The fact that the vaccine seem to have started working well quickly does _NOT_ imply that at all, because our immune system is known to have a two-stage process.  Early efficacy in no way suggests long-lasting efficacy in humans.

As an analogy - the human immune system typically works like a multi-stage rocket.  Yes, the first stage is very effective, and gets you high up.  But it doesn't get you to orbit, and you fall back down... unless you have a second stage to complete the trip.

In biology terms - after a first shot, the body typically makes antibodies, but these last a few weeks, and are often not replaced.  With a second dose, the body figures out that the invader means business, and longer lasting antibodies and cell memory are engaged.

They would need to do a separate trial, with only one injection, to learn if that is effective.  They very specifically didn't do that, _because_ our immune systems have that two-stage response.  Given the risks involved, they tested the way they knew was mostly likely to give highest, longest-lasting efficacy.  Other regimens are not supported at this time.

Speculation that a second dose is not necessary is actually kind of dangerous.  It may lead to folks not bothering to get the second shot and having their immunity fail.  Or, they may start engaging in dumb@ss conspiracy theorizing about the second shot.  Please don't push that speculation around.

In the future, when we are beyond the current crisis, that can be tested, and maybe that'll make the vaccine regimen for future generations simpler.  But for now, don't suggest that one vaccination is okay. The science does not support that at this time.


----------



## NotAYakk

Sure, but right now people are making decisions between protecting half as many people and reserving enough for a 2nd dose for everyone.

If we are at all certain we need 2 doses to generate immunity, reserving half makes sensr.

If we are not, then relying on supply chains (which can fail) to deliver the 2nd dose is the winning move.

I am saying it is very likely we get near full protection before the 2nd dose, and it is even plausible that the 2nd dose *might* be not needed; this is only _plausible_, and relying in it is a bad idea outside of emergencies.

OTOH, with thatbeing plausible, it would mean getting doses into people's arms even if we cannot guarantee 95%+ second dose tracking is a good plan.

But if there was a randomized trial to get only 1 dose, starting today, and track who gets covid 19, I'd enroll.

Vaccinating 7 billion people is a serious logistcal challenge.  The possibility of doing it with.only 1 injection would make it insanely easier.


----------



## Eltab

Another way to look at this is, if you are not in a 'high risk for disastrous complications' category, if you wait to get your second shot so others can get their first shot (and you schedule your second shot for when the rush is over), you are not committing a mortal sin against society.


----------



## Ryujin

I seem to recall numbers suggesting that the second dose, in both cases, bumped the efficacy from something in the neighbourhood of 60%, to approx. 95%. Ballparking from memory, so please don't hold me to those exact numbers.


----------



## NotAYakk

Ryujin said:


> I seem to recall numbers suggesting that the second dose, in both cases, bumped the efficacy from something in the neighbourhood of 60%, to approx. 95%. Ballparking from memory, so please don't hold me to those exact numbers.



Yes, but as I just found out, they worked out the effectiveness by including the first 10-12 days of little to no protection with the rest of the pre-injection 2 period.

The graph makes it extremely unlikely that your chance is uniform over the pre-vaccine period.  The fact that both mRNA vaccines have similar graphs with similar inflection points...

I mean, we aren't *dead certain* here.  We haven't done the trials.

And no, you shouldn't defer the 2nd dose if you get the first either, not unless (a) you are part of a trial or (b) something goes wrong with supply lines.  There is still a (collective) risk; if it is less effective, it could lead to evolution pressure on the virus to learn to bypass the vaccine.


----------



## Eltab

NotAYakk said:


> And no, you shouldn't defer the 2nd dose if you get the first either, not unless (a) you are part of a trial or (b) something goes wrong with supply lines.  There is still a (collective) risk; if it is less effective, it could lead to evolution pressure on the virus to learn to bypass the vaccine.



If that was reacting to my comment above?
Option (b) has already happened: several States did not in fact have the prep work done to provide more than a trickle of vaccinations and their supply is backing up in the warehouses.  <Insert here not-EnWorld-compliant comment about clogging the front of their lines with non-healthcare-related categories>


----------



## Garthanos

Eltab said:


> If that was reacting to my comment above?
> Option (b) has already happened: several States did not in fact have the prep work done to provide more than a trickle of vaccinations and their supply is backing up in the warehouses.  <Insert here not-EnWorld-compliant comment about clogging the front of their lines with non-healthcare-related categories>



Yeh all of my warehoused supply not being used is basically not for anyone's mom to here


----------



## NotAYakk

Eltab said:


> If that was reacting to my comment above?
> Option (b) has already happened: several States did not in fact have the prep work done to provide more than a trickle of vaccinations and their supply is backing up in the warehouses.  <Insert here not-EnWorld-compliant comment about clogging the front of their lines with non-healthcare-related categories>



Sure, but that only kicks in in 3-4 weeks; hopefully their government stops being idiotic and gets vaccines into people more efficiently.

Up here in Ontario, we are expected 80k-100k doses per week soon, and we are only giving out a few 1-2k of vaccines per day.  Things are going to get interesting.  (We need to break 11k-14k *per day* to handle the incoming supply).

By April we are expecting about a million doses per week, that requires 140k doses _per day_ administered.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

And- since there are several other vaccines still in development and/or human trials- there’s a possibility that one of _those_ may be a single dose treatment.


----------



## Eltab

Garthanos said:


> Yeh all of my warehoused supply not being used is basically not for anyone's mom to here



One opinion article observes that Walgreens, CVS, Rite-Aid, and similar drug store chains already have the capability to distribute and administer medications on the desired scale, nationwide; why re-invent the wheel when the Government could write a contract or three?  Some (not all) stores have a med clinic inside and that would be a way to get the process moving.


----------



## NotAYakk

Do they have -70 degree freezers, the ability to track who got the vaccine, and capable of prioritizing who gets it?


----------



## MarkB

NotAYakk said:


> Do they have -70 degree freezers, the ability to track who got the vaccine, and capable of prioritizing who gets it?



And security systems capable of fending off both anti-vaxxer nutcases and "me first" queue jumpers?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NotAYakk said:


> Do they have -70 degree freezers, the ability to track who got the vaccine, and capable of prioritizing who gets it?



Not all of them, for sure.

OTOH, as has been noted, the Dippin’ Dots ice cream chain apparently DOES have such low-temp freezers, and could easily be part of a patriotic corporate response to supporting the push for mass vaccinations.

I know I would love to go to a mall (plenty of parking, large, air-conditioned indoor space) to get an injection, especially if a little treat were part of the deal. 

What a PR coup that would be.  At least as good as the beer & soda makers delivering clean water to tornado/hurricane struck areas, or distilleries making hand sanitizer.


----------



## Eltab

NotAYakk said:


> Do they have -70 degree freezers, the ability to track who got the vaccine, and capable of prioritizing who gets it?



Ingenuity (see Danny's post above) can solve the first question.  CVS &c already dispense prescriptions, so tracking who should / did get their shots is already built into their capability.


----------



## Mallus

Aren't the big pharmacy chains already involved in the US distribution plan??


----------



## Eltab

MarkB said:


> And security systems capable of fending off both anti-vaxxer nutcases and "me first" queue jumpers?



A quick check of the Yellow Pages can get you multiple security companies that will provide your site(s) a uniformed security officer or two (armed if need be) for say a month's duration.
Remember back in March pre-lockdowns, when the hospitals cried out for ventilators and masks, and Corporate America came to their aid?  (At the time I called this response the spirit of the Arsenal of Democracy.)   I am convinced that the prospect of ending this torment will create a similar response to identified needs.


----------



## Garthanos

Mallus said:


> Aren't the big pharmacy chains already involved in the US distribution plan??



no idea that there is a a "US" plan... we have the guy who takes no responsibility at the top and a bunch of vaccines not reaching people.


----------



## Mallus

Eltab said:


> Remember back in March pre-lockdowns, when the hospitals cried out for ventilators and masks, and Corporate America came to their aid?



I seem to recall a mad scramble for PPE, states competing against one another (which disadvantages smaller, poorer states, natch), and skyrocketing prices.


----------



## Mallus

Garthanos said:


> no idea that there is a a "US" plan... we have the guy who takes no responsibility at the top and a bunch of vaccines not reaching people.



Of course there was a plan! In it you'll find all those really ambitious vaccination targets we're failing to meet written down...


----------



## Garthanos

Mallus said:


> Of course there was a plan! In it you'll find all those really ambitious vaccination targets we're failing to meet written down...



We are going to have people thinking the US needs some sort of pitty party....


----------



## Eltab

Mallus said:


> I seem to recall a mad scramble for PPE, states competing against one another (which disadvantages smaller, poorer states, natch), and skyrocketing prices.



The glass is half empty?
OTOH, I remember Ford and GM converting unused production lines to make ventilators inside of a month.  Vera Bradley and hundreds of at-home seamstresses making masks - enough to cover dire need.  And recognition that outsourcing was not such an awesome policy after all, because no supply and no flexibility.


----------



## Hussar

MarkB said:


> And security systems capable of fending off both anti-vaxxer nutcases and "me first" queue jumpers?



Well, in Canada, we're using the armed forces to handle security.  They actually called up the army for this.  :wow:  In Canada?!?!  Good grief.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> OTOH, I remember Ford and GM converting unused production lines to make ventilators inside of a month.




That was good.



> Vera Bradley and hundreds of at-home seamstresses making masks - enough to cover dire need.




These were good for normal folks at home who needed masks to go to the grocery.  They weren't suitable for medical personnel who needed PPE.


----------



## Ryujin

Mallus said:


> I seem to recall a mad scramble for PPE, states competing against one another (which disadvantages smaller, poorer states, natch), and skyrocketing prices.



In addition, half a million masks that were destined for Canada, were embargoed at the US border. That was half of the shipment. The other half were released.

There's currently a very good documentary showing on Prime: "Totally Under Control." It follows the pandemic from December 2019, though to the early Fall of 2020.


----------



## Garthanos

Eltab said:


> The glass is half empty?
> OTOH, I remember Ford and GM converting unused production lines to make ventilators inside of a month.  Vera Bradley and hundreds of at-home seamstresses making masks - enough to cover dire need.  And recognition that outsourcing was not such an awesome policy after all, because no supply and no flexibility.



Yes people try... but leadership (or lack thereof) and proper organization and management  can be and have obviously been of dramatic impact as has how consistent you try to follow scientific guidelines even as those developed and improved.


----------



## ccs

Umbran said:


> These were good for normal folks at home who needed masks to go to the grocery.  They weren't suitable for medical personnel who needed PPE.



Well hopefully it helped relieve some of the scramble for true PPE.  If we all don't need N95 grade masks just to go to the grocery store....


----------



## Deset Gled

Eltab said:


> The glass is half empty?
> OTOH, I remember Ford and GM converting unused production lines to make ventilators inside of a month.  Vera Bradley and hundreds of at-home seamstresses making masks - enough to cover dire need.  And recognition that outsourcing was not such an awesome policy after all, because no supply and no flexibility.




While I'm not an expert, I'm pretty sure the problem is that manufacturing the -70 freezers is more akin to the N95 mask manufacturing problem than the ventilator problem.  

Even normal fridges require special chemicals and a vacuum process to manufacture.  I'm pretty sure a -70 system is exponentially more complicated and has a lot more safety issues.  If you can't get the right chemicals, if you aren't properly set up to handle the toxicity or environmental issues, or if you don't have the right tech to deal with the vacuum process, it may not be a simple matter of converting production lines.  That's where a lot of the talk about Dipping Dots comes it; they're one of the few companies with the right production base to even consider repurposing.


----------



## Istbor

Deset Gled said:


> While I'm not an expert, I'm pretty sure the problem is that manufacturing the -70 freezers is more akin to the N95 mask manufacturing problem than the ventilator problem.
> 
> Even normal fridges require special chemicals and a vacuum process to manufacture.  I'm pretty sure a -70 system is exponentially more complicated and has a lot more safety issues.  If you can't get the right chemicals, if you aren't properly set up to handle the toxicity or environmental issues, or if you don't have the right tech to deal with the vacuum process, it may not be a simple matter of converting production lines.  That's where a lot of the talk about Dipping Dots comes it; they're one of the few companies with the right production base to even consider repurposing.



Not to mention that some of this will likely require certifications. While not impossible, those can take time. Especially depending on the use and laws surrounding the handling of the product. Maybe you could whip up a production facility in a month, but if there are strict certifications involved with the product, and the environment in which the product is made, you can hit time sinks. 

This is only coming from some of me experience from biochemical manufacturing, as they sometimes call for freezers this cold. All of that space and tech has to be certified, and we only use the freezers, not make them.


----------



## Garthanos

I have used n95 I find them actually easier to use properly than the other lesser ones (they fit nicely and actually seem to breath well), also they tend to remain in good shape longer


----------



## NotAYakk

Hussar said:


> Well, in Canada, we're using the armed forces to handle security.  They actually called up the army for this.  :wow:  In Canada?!?!  Good grief.



Modern western militaries are *mainly* logistics engines.

They are also subject-matter experts on killing things and blowing things up.  But there isn't much call for that in Canada nowadays.  For Canada's military to do things, it needs to do things on the far end of the world along ridiculous length supply chains.

They need to be able to build bases, move goods, organize people, and execute operations on a large scale.  They need to move supplies of varying danger, fragility, etc.

There isn't much call for expertise in massive logistical operations being performed "out of thin air" on short schedules outside of the military.

This is why using the military for tsunami relief and the like is also useful.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> While I'm not an expert, I'm pretty sure the problem is that manufacturing the -70 freezers is more akin to the N95 mask manufacturing problem than the ventilator problem.




It is not my understanding that the major issue of the moment is "there is no freezer to put vaccine in when it gets there".  If you have information to the contrary, I'd like to see a cite I can refer to.

At the moment, the issue seems to be that there is no _plan_ for distribution.  It seems that no cogent listing of "which facility gets which batch of vaccine when" was ever produced.

The Pfizer production facility in Kalamazoo in which the final steps of vaccine production are done is _LITERALLY_ across the street from the Kalamazoo-Battle Creek International Airport, btw, so shipping should be fairly easy. 



Spoiler: spoiler for tall image


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> It is not my understanding that the major issue of the moment is "there is no freezer to put vaccine in when it gets there".  If you have information to the contrary, I'd like to see a cite I can refer to.
> 
> At the moment, the issue seems to be that there is no _plan_ for distribution.  It seems that no cogent listing of "which facility gets which batch of vaccine when" was ever produced.




It's absolutely not "the major issue of the moment".  All of the biggest hot spots and first stage distribution plans start in metropolitan areas.  All the cities have access to cold storage, and have the transportation available to move the vaccine as needed.

It's a major issue to consider in any serious long term distribution plan.  A large number of rural areas don't have access to the type of freezers needed.  And at longer distances, transporting the vaccine at proper temperature also becomes an issue.  Here's few articles I found that mention the problem in a quick google:









						'We're being left behind': Rural hospitals can't afford ultra-cold freezers to store the leading Covid-19 vaccine
					

Large urban hospitals are rushing to buy expensive ultra-cold freezers to store what's likely to be the first approved Covid-19 vaccine. But most rural hospitals can't afford these high-end units.




					www.statnews.com
				











						As vaccine rollout looms, so do big questions around supply chains
					

Experts call the logistics of getting doses into the hands of distributors a "phenomenally critical" challenge – and not one that's easily solved.




					www.healthcareitnews.com
				











						Covid-19 Vaccines Are Slow to Reach Rural America
					

Communities far from cities, many with the highest coronavirus infection rates in the U.S., face challenges including storage, staffing and vaccine skepticism.




					www.wsj.com
				




Freezer access is exactly the type of long term planning that the federal government should have been handling months ago.  Before the FDA ever approved the vaccine, this was a known problem.  The fact that freezer discussion isn't an immediate part of the distribution plan just highlights how short sighted and fundamentally useless our current planning is.


----------



## Ryujin

I would think that places that can manufacture "dry ice" would be of assistance in storage and the same dry ice can be used for shipping. Then again it's only one of the current two vaccines that requires very low temp storage. Use it in urban areas, where the freezers are available, and use the other in more rural regions.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> All the cities have access to cold storage, and have the transportation available to move the vaccine as needed.




Do remember, there's not one "the vaccine".  There are two, with different storage requirements.  Rural areas that don't have access to the extremely low temperatures needed for the Pfizer vaccine can use Moderna's, which needs only normal freezer temps.  Heck, the Moderna vaccine can be keep at household refrigerator temps for a month - and it shouldn't be sitting aroudn that long without going into anyone's arm right now anyway.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

And AstraZeneca’s can be stored at temperatures generated by a cold stare of disapproval, so it has that going for it.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And AstraZeneca’s can be stored at temperatures generated by a cold stare of disapproval, so it has that going for it.



'Tis the season when we could borrow some otherwise-unused Good Humor ice cream trucks to drive that brand vaccine shots to Out-in-the County Med Clinic.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FWIW, Dad got his first injection of the Moderna vaccine on Saturday.  So far, the only side effect is a bit of fatigue.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> 'Tis the season when we could borrow some otherwise-unused Good Humor ice cream trucks to drive that brand vaccine shots to Out-in-the County Med Clinic.



“I’ll have a Cherry Bomb aaaaaand...a COVID vaccine injection.”


----------



## ccs

Umbran said:


> It is not my understanding that the major issue of the moment is "there is no freezer to put vaccine in when it gets there".  If you have information to the contrary, I'd like to see a cite I can refer to.
> 
> At the moment, the issue seems to be that there is no _plan_ for distribution.  It seems that no cogent listing of "which facility gets which batch of vaccine when" was ever produced.
> 
> The Pfizer production facility in Kalamazoo in which the final steps of vaccine production are done is _LITERALLY_ across the street from the Kalamazoo-Battle Creek International Airport, btw, so shipping should be fairly easy.
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: spoiler for tall image
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 130934




Does this lack of a plan here in the USA surprise you in any way?

AT BEST the three ring circus of incompetence in charge hasn't taken any of this seriously since before it started.
At worst....

So why would they have a plan?


----------



## GreyLord

It actually sort of upsets me at the incompetence.  Supposedly over 15 million doses have been shipped, but less than 1/5 of those have actually been administered.

By the time they even get close to administering it, the batch will be BAD.  It's better to simply open it up and get as many doses in as many people as possible than to let the batch go bad because you simply are not administering it!


----------



## Janx

GreyLord said:


> It actually sort of upsets me at the incompetence.  Supposedly over 15 million doses have been shipped, but less than 1/5 of those have actually been administered.
> 
> By the time they even get close to administering it, the batch will be BAD.  It's better to simply open it up and get as many doses in as many people as possible than to let the batch go bad because you simply are not administering it!



your complaint ignores the logistics of having enough nurses to inject people.  Having enough doors and fences to organize recipients.


----------



## MarkB

Janx said:


> your complaint ignores the logistics of having enough nurses to inject people.  Having enough doors and fences to organize recipients.



Sure, but all of that could have been organised well in advance of the vaccines becoming available. It's not as though the logistical requirements were a mystery before then.


----------



## Umbran

ccs said:


> Does this lack of a plan here in the USA surprise you in any way?




Not in the slightest. 

I was merely noting that lack of freezers was probably not the thing for us to be concerned about first.


----------



## Umbran

MarkB said:


> Sure, but all of that could have been organised well in advance of the vaccines becoming available. It's not as though the logistical requirements were a mystery before then.




Not a mystery... _if_ you have experience in moving large numbers of people through a process.  Make no mistake, vaccinating _the entire country_ within a few months is no small feat of logistics.  The like has not been attempted in a century.  The planning required is massive... and wasn't done.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Not a mystery... _if_ you have experience in moving large numbers of people through a process.  Make no mistake, vaccinating _the entire country_ within a few months is no small feat of logistics.  The like has not been attempted in a century.  The planning required is massive... and wasn't done.



Pretty much this.  It’s another symptom of leadership failure.

While the 1st vaccine DOES have some esoteric requirements, and the 2nd is slightly better, the 3rd is standard fare as vaccines go, and other trials look promising.  So transport and storage issues, while not insignificant, are shaping up to be relatively minor concerns.

The logistics of actually having the personnel to administer the injections is a different issue.  Not any old schmoe can deliver a shot.  They have to be trained professionals.  They also have to be bonded in many states, and be HIPAA compliant.  For some rural areas, unless they bus the recipients into areas to get injections (2 times in one month), they’re going to have to be shipped in, just like the vaccine itself, and that means food & lodging...for at least a month.

Given the...*tumult*...surrounding vaccination itself, there will have to be security provided to safeguard both the vaccine and healtcare professionals.  The people providing said security will require the same accommodations as the health care workers.

Security requirements for equipment may also limit viable venues for mobile treatment clinics.

And since the Moderna vaccine (and probably others as well) requires a wait time of 15-30 minutes post injections to monitor for early-onset side effects like allergic reactions, you need to have sufficient space for people to congregate pre and post injections while maintaining social distancing.  IOW, drive-through injection sites aren’t too likely.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Also, in case you missed it, someone is trolling the 5g chip conspiracy believers HARD:









						Conspiracy theorists share schematic for “5G chip” they claim is implanted in COVID-19 vaccines – only it's actually for the Boss Metal Zone
					

As soon as it's your turn, you'll have op-amps and 1n4148 diodes injected straight into your bloodstream, apparently




					www.guitarworld.com
				




This isn't some obscure piece of gear.  This is a fairly common, mass-produced product that has been in the market for decades and achieved a certain amount of infamy in music circles.  Literally hundreds of thousands if not millions of people recognize that circuit on sight.

Also, a veterinarian posted this picture showing a comparison between a vaccination needle, a meddle used for chipping animals and a ballpoint pen (for scale).  The point: a chip would not fit in a vaccine needle, and most people would likely notice the unusually large syringe being used if a chip were actually being injected.






Of note, someone used this picture to try to debunk the chip conspiracy theory.  Unfortunately, the attempt was unsuccessful.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Of note, someone used this picture to try to debunk the chip conspiracy theory.  Unfortunately, the attempt was unsuccessful.




Unfotunately, all the conspiracy nuts have to do is say, "No, those aren't for _micro_chips_.  Micro_chips are _microscopic_!  Duh!" and they are off to the races.


----------



## CleverNickName

It's so dumb it makes my head hurt.  Nevermind that nanotechnology is years away from being able to do what the conspiracy theorists fear it will do.  That's a whole other topic; these people are _next level _paranoid.

I mean, why are they so worried about having a microchip track them everywhere they go, and log everything they do? They already paid Samsung or Apple hundreds of dollars for a _real, tangible_ microchip that tracks everywhere they go, that lets them _willingly _log everything they do onto numerous social media platforms in real-time.  Seems like their worry is misplaced.


----------



## Umbran

CleverNickName said:


> I mean, why are they so worried about having a microchip track them everywhere they go, and log everything they do?




Honest answer?  A combination of a feeling of lack of control of their world, plus the Dunning-Kruger effect.  The idea that you at least _know the secret_ helps soothe the first.  The second means you don't know that secret is stupid.


----------



## Ryujin

CleverNickName said:


> It's so dumb it makes my head hurt.  Nevermind that nonotechnology is years away from being able to do what the conspiracy theorists fear it will do.  That's a whole other topic; these people are _next level _paranoid.
> 
> I mean, why are they so worried about having a microchip track them everywhere they go, and log everything they do? They already paid Samsung or Apple hundreds of dollars for a _real, tangible_ microchip that tracks everywhere they go, that lets them _willingly _log everything they do onto numerous social media platforms in real-time.  Seems like their worry is misplaced.



They already give more information that that Samsung device provides, with every post they make to social media. South Park did an episode on that particular dichotomy.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Honest answer?  A combination of a feeling of lack of control of their world, plus the Dunning-Kruger effect.  The idea that you at least _know the secret_ helps soothe the first.  The second means you don't know that secret is stupid.



It is also a group membership thing. I call it the I want to feel special and in the know group but you are right there is a desire for things to be under somebody's control even if it has to be some evil impossibility.  With a tad of desire for life to be exciting in a way they understand and reality is too complex.


----------



## Istbor

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Also, in case you missed it, someone is trolling the 5g chip conspiracy believers HARD:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Conspiracy theorists share schematic for “5G chip” they claim is implanted in COVID-19 vaccines – only it's actually for the Boss Metal Zone
> 
> 
> As soon as it's your turn, you'll have op-amps and 1n4148 diodes injected straight into your bloodstream, apparently
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.guitarworld.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This isn't some obscure piece of gear.  This is a fairly common, mass-produced product that has been in the market for decades and achieved a certain amount of infamy in music circles.  Literally hundreds of thousands if not millions of people recognize that circuit on sight.
> 
> Also, a veterinarian posted this picture showing a comparison between a vaccination needle, a meddle used for chipping animals and a ballpoint pen (for scale).  The point: a chip would not fit in a vaccine needle, and most people would likely notice the unusually large syringe being used if a chip were actually being injected.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Of note, someone used this picture to try to debunk the chip conspiracy theory.  Unfortunately, the attempt was unsuccessful.



Not a fan of needles so not going to lie, that vaccine needle still terrifies me even if it is too 'small' for a microchip.


----------



## billd91

Istbor said:


> Not a fan of needles so not going to lie, that vaccine needle still terrifies me even if it is too 'small' for a microchip.



I can understand that. There are people who never really shake that fear. But I have to say that, thanks to improvements in needles and their sharpness, immunizations and other shots are *SO* much better than when I was a kid, heck, so much better than 25 years ago.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Unfotunately, all the conspiracy nuts have to do is say, "No, those aren't for _micro_chips_.  Micro_chips are _microscopic_!  Duh!" and they are off to the races.



Pretty much nailed it!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Istbor said:


> Not a fan of needles so not going to lie, that vaccine needle still terrifies me even if it is too 'small' for a microchip.



I really dislike needles.  Not phobic levels of fear & hate, but measurably more than the Average Joe. 

But because I have allergies and take meds requiring monitoring things in my blood levels, I’ve had to come to an understanding with the pokey bastards.  Basically, *I don’t look.*


----------



## MarkB

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I really dislike needles.  Not phobic levels of fear & hate, but measurably more than the Average Joe.
> 
> But because I gave allergies and take meds requiring monitoring things in my blood levels, I’ve had to come to an understanding with the pokey bastards.  Basically, *I don’t look.*



I can handle needles when it comes to injections, but I really hate getting blood tests, due to a couple of instances when it took over ten tries for them to find a vein.


----------



## Ryujin

MarkB said:


> I can handle needles when it comes to injections, but I really hate getting blood tests, due to a couple of instances when it took over ten tries for them to find a vein.



As someone who feels it every time that I get bitten by a mosquito, I hate needles. 

A recent health issue resulted in me having to get a CAD Pump, for a couple of weeks, and I ended up being "used for practice" by a relatively new nurse. Missed in the arm. Went through both sides of the vein in the back of my hand and the swelling/bruise only faded a few days ago (it had been almost a month). Having to constantly worry whether or not you're going to get the line that's attached to the pump and goes into your arm hung up on something, and yanked out, doesn't improve one's aversion to needles, either.


----------



## Thomas Shey

When trying to engage with people who have spun up conspiracy theories, a combination of apophenia and social reinforcement goes a long way.
​


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I really dislike needles.  Not phobic levels of fear & hate, but measurably more than the Average Joe.
> 
> But because I gave allergies and take meds requiring monitoring things in my blood levels, I’ve had to come to an understanding with the pokey bastards.  Basically, *I don’t look.*



I've gotten enough shots and blood tests throughout my (relatively short) life that I no longer have an aversion to needles. I do hate getting allergy shots and vaccinations, though. My arm always swells up and has a huge welt for a few days.


----------



## billd91

I used to volunteer at blood drives as a Boy Scout, so watching needles doesn’t bother me... even when used on me. I have hard veins to hit so once they were moving the needle around under my skin trying to hit it. The nurse was saying “Don’t look” but I did. Bruised like a mother but I gave that pint!


----------



## Eltab

This will take time, of course, that has not been available yet:
Can these vaccines be given via the polio-type sugar cubes, or via an inhaler like Primatine Mist?

Kicking around ideas for the future.  (I don't care for - and do not watch myself getting - shots either.)


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I've gotten enough shots and blood tests throughout my (relatively short) life that I no longer have an aversion to needles. I do hate getting allergy shots and vaccinations, though. My arm always swells up and has a huge welt for a few days.



I worked at a hospital for a while, and had to get booster shots for ... well, about everything.  After the first couple left me wanting to crawl into bed and not come out until a few days later (or chicken soup was offered), I scheduled the rest of the shots on the Fridays before my weekends off.


----------



## Zardnaar

I watch needles don't care. 

 Microchips would be a bonus tbh. Injecte with the whole phone.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

My shots horror story:  as a 7 year old military dependent, I had to get all of my vaccinations up to date when we moved to Germany.  Shortly before the move, my medical records were lost.  So I had to get ALL of my vaccinations all over again.  Knowing my dislike of needles, my parents didn’t tell me until we got to the actual room.

It took one orderly across my legs, one at my waist, one on each arm, and one giving the actual injections to complete the task.


----------



## Thomas Shey

When I was young, I had chronic tonisillitus; I got so many shots I developed a raging hate on for them.  And I've notoriously throughout my life had some, shall we say, serious adrenaline reactions to some things.  My first sign of this was when they strapped me down to give me a shot when I was six and _I broke the strap_.

(I'm still more than a little belonephobic, but I can get around it by just not looking for the most part.)


----------



## Imaculata

I once had to give a blood sample, and the doctor decided that the intern should do it. I am not fond of needles, but as long as they get it over with quickly, I'm fine. The intern failed to find my vein over 20 times, before I passed out. When I came to, my first words were:

"Please tell me you got it!"


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Re: logistics

Sometimes, stuff happens.  Fortunately, the mess was discovered in time to take action.









						After a freezer filled with Covid-19 vaccines broke, a California hospital scrambled to administer more than 800 doses in about 2 hours | CNN
					

When a freezer that was used to store the Moderna Covid-19 vaccine at a Northern California hospital broke, officials soon realized they only had about two hours to administer the more than 800 doses that were inside.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Can these vaccines be given via the polio-type sugar cubes, or via an inhaler like Primatine Mist?




Unlikely.  The polio vaccine could use those routes because it is an inactive virus vaccine.  So, the stuff is robust enough to enter the body like the virus would.  These vaccines are not as robust, physically, and probably can't be administered that way.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Re: logistics
> 
> Sometimes, stuff happens.  Fortunately, the mess was discovered in time to take action.




Barely.  

The thing is, in those two hours, they administered more vaccine in all the time from Dec 18th to that point.

Thus proving that it isn't that they _cannot_ administer the vaccine quickly.  One hospital source managed hundreds of shots an hour!  It'd be good to know what the holdup is.


----------



## Maxperson

Man.  Double whammy here in Los Angeles.  Covid is way out of control and the state/county can't get their acts together to actually vaccinate people.


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> Thus proving that it isn't that they _cannot_ administer the vaccine quickly.  One hospital source managed hundreds of shots an hour!  It'd be good to know what the holdup is.



For the most part, the holdup is deciding who gets it.  In this emergency, there wasn't enough time for any politicians to get involved.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> For the most part, the holdup is deciding who gets it.  In this emergency, there wasn't enough time for any politicians to get involved.




Politicians shouldn't really be involved in the decision of who gets it first.  That's a health science question, imho.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Microchips would be a bonus tbh. Injecte with the whole phone.



direct internet connection to my brain is on my list but that wont be some injected thing


----------



## Thomas Shey

Maxperson said:


> Man.  Double whammy here in Los Angeles.  Covid is way out of control and the state/county can't get their acts together to actually vaccinate people.




And we haven't even probably hit the peak of the post-holiday cases yet, certainly not the New Years triggered ones.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Politicians shouldn't really be involved in the decision of who gets it first.  That's a health science question, imho.




In the end, that'd still end up being connected to politicians, just ones where a  lot of them had "Doctor" in front of their names.  Resource allocation decisions are never free of politics.


----------



## Garthanos

Thomas Shey said:


> Resource allocation decisions are never free of politics.



This


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> Resource allocation decisions are never free of politics.




Fine, but then we need to recognize the difference between politics and Politics.


----------



## MarkB

In the UK we've gone the route of getting the first round of injections out ASAP, with the second set to be deployed as-and-when, despite the WHO advising that this hasn't been shown to be effective.

The exponential spread of the virus is definitely starting to feel more palpable. One of the members of our D&D club is currently hospitalised in the local COVID ward, and another is awaiting the results of a self-test kit.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I suspect the initial holdup was- as noted- politics/decision making/sorting of would-be patients into an orderly queue for receiving the injection.  Vaccine triage, if you will.  All of that goes out the window when you’re on the clock and it’s use it or lose it time.

I haven’t seen the distribution regs in person, but there may well be legal penalties for incorrect order of administration of injections, and that would definitely slow things down if they’re severe enough.


----------



## Imaculata

The Dutch government is the last out of all EU countries to start vaccinations, thanks to even more incompetence by our minister of health. Considering the group I'm in, I won't be eligible for the vaccine until somewhere in March or April.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Fine, but then we need to recognize the difference between politics and Politics.




While not unfair, I'm not sure the distinction is quite as sharp as I think you do here.


----------



## Thomas Shey

MarkB said:


> In the UK we've gone the route of getting the first round of injections out ASAP, with the second set to be deployed as-and-when, despite the WHO advising that this hasn't been shown to be effective.
> 
> The exponential spread of the virus is definitely starting to feel more palpable. One of the members of our D&D club is currently hospitalised in the local COVID ward, and another is awaiting the results of a self-test kit.




If the new strain has as much additional infectiousness as has been reported, its hard to see how it couldn't.


----------



## CleverNickName

And now apparently there is a new strain of avian flu in India. 








						Bird flu: India to cull poultry amid fears of virus
					

Avian flu has so far been detected in wild geese, crows and ducks in various parts of the country.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## ccs

CleverNickName said:


> And now apparently there is a new strain of avian flu in India.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bird flu: India to cull poultry amid fears of virus
> 
> 
> Avian flu has so far been detected in wild geese, crows and ducks in various parts of the country.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com



Oh good, the sequel begins....


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ccs said:


> Oh good, the sequel begins....



We seriously don't need a second pandemic right now. Things are chaotic as it is.


----------



## ccs

AcererakTriple6 said:


> We seriously don't need a second pandemic right now. Things are chaotic as it is.



What we need & what we get might not be the same.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

ccs said:


> What we need & what we get might not be the same.



Unfortunately true. I do hope that this new bird flu scare isn't anything serious, but we need caution.


----------



## NotAYakk

So if we accept that in 1918 health care sucked, and that people going to an ICU today just died, and that malnutrition was way more common...

1918 flu only killed 0.5% of US citizens.  Covid 19 puts 2%-5% of the infected in the ICU.

Measures that merely suppress covid wipe out the seasonal flu.

A new flu strain is almost certainly less dangerous than covid 19.  Even a return of a 1918 scale flu wouldn't be as big.

It might even just go extinct without us noticing.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

As viruses go, flus are nasty, and avian flus are among the nastiest in the family.  Very contagious.  Very durable.  Very prone to mutation.  Saying it would be less dangerous than C19 is as problematic a comparison as calling C19 just another flu.

Let’s assume the new avian flu was essentially identical to the 1918 variant.  You’re looking back at stats from 100 years ago, but important things have changed.  While our practice & science of medicine have improved, so has the speed of travel.  A person infected with the flu today could be spreading it on the other side of the world tomorrow.  That was impossible in 1918.


----------



## ccs

NotAYakk said:


> So if we accept that in 1918 health care sucked, and that people going to an ICU today just died, and that malnutrition was way more common...
> 
> 1918 flu only killed 0.5% of US citizens.  Covid 19 puts 2%-5% of the infected in the ICU.
> 
> Measures that merely suppress covid wipe out the seasonal flu.
> 
> A new flu strain is almost certainly less dangerous than covid 19.  Even a return of a 1918 scale flu wouldn't be as big.
> 
> It might even just go extinct without us noticing.



Maybe.  
But we just played a round of such wishful thinking this time last year.....  Hasn't turn out so well.
How about this time we take things more seriously & see how that works?


----------



## Eltab

ccs said:


> How about this time we take things more seriously & see how that works?



If there is another epidemic, we won't have Nixon to kick around any more.
So when the plans do not work out as envisioned, will the "experts" use data from past experience to change adapt and (we hope) improve The Plan, or will they stand on the sidelines, point fingers at each other / everybody else, and complain?


----------



## ccs

A bit of the 1st & probably a lot of the latter.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Let’s assume the new avian flu was essentially identical to the 1918 variant.  You’re looking back at stats from 100 years ago, but important things have changed.  While our practice & science of medicine have improved, so has the speed of travel.  A person infected with the flu today could be spreading it on the other side of the world tomorrow.  That was impossible in 1918.



Another highly relevant thing has changed: population density.  The US, for example, has tripled in population since 1918.  That means three times as many people to get sick...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> If there is another epidemic, we won't have Nixon to kick around any more.
> So *when* the plans do not work out as envisioned, will the "experts" use data from past experience to change adapt and (we hope) improve The Plan, or will they stand on the sidelines, point fingers at each other / everybody else, and complain?



I believe the word ”if” would be more accurate here.  

There _was_ a pandemic plan.  It was not followed.  Some leaders incited their followers to do the exact opposite of what medical experts advised.

Where such advice was actually followed, better results followed.

And the thing is, the recommendations for a flu epidemic are essentially identical to those for C19.  I seriously doubt those who pooh-poohed things like masking, distancing and hygiene orders will be any more inclined to follow them for Pandemic 2: Electric Boogaloo.  (In fairness, part of that is due to the fact that the 2009 swine flu pandemic was pretty mild.)

Even if the current avian flu outbreak never reaches American shores, at some point, another serious flu (or coronavirus or something worse) pandemic WILL happen and WILL affect our citizenry.  Then we’ll find out whether people have the wisdom to follow the advice of highly trained and educated medical professionals.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Another highly relevant thing has changed: population density.  The US, for example, has tripled in population since 1918.  That means three times as many people to get sick...



I meant to mention that and my brain farted.  Thanks for filling that particular gap!


----------



## Hussar

Although, to be fair, if proper measures are taken, population density doesn't seem to be a big contributing factor.  I mean, Japan has what, ten times the population density of the US and only 1% of the deaths?  It just freaks me out to watch how poorly the West has handled all of this.  It's just so mind boggling that, in Canada, we've had 16000 plus deaths and people are STILL protesting mask mandates.  

It really is discouraging.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> Although, to be fair, if proper measures are taken, population density doesn't seem to be a big contributing factor.  I mean, Japan has what, ten times the population density of the US and only 1% of the deaths?  It just freaks me out to watch how poorly the West has handled all of this.  It's just so mind boggling that, in Canada, we've had 16000 plus deaths and people are STILL protesting mask mandates.
> 
> It really is discouraging.



They had that low percentage largely because- as noted- they masked and practiced stepped-up hygiene, generally speaking.  Had we done likewise, we would have had hundreds of thousands more Americans still breathing air.

I mean, we’re still trying to get the percentage of Americans who wash their hands after using the bathroom over 60%.









						Y’all Nasty: CDC Confirms People Aren’t Washing Their Hands After Using the Bathroom
					

It’s cold and flu season, which means entire offices are being taken down by the germs and bugs that people pass around because they are not exercising even the most basic office and germ prevention etiquette.




					www.theroot.com
				




Add to that the probability that a Japanese person will stay home from work when contagious Vs Americans who would do likewise.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Add to that the probability that a Japanese person will stay home from work when contagious Vs Americans who would do likewise.




Hr.  I mean, I have a well-paid, salaried job.  I have sick days, and a really lenient work-from-home policy to fall back on.  Lots of other folks, not so much.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Hr.  I mean, I have a well-paid, salaried job.  I have sick days, and a really lenient work-from-home policy to fall back on.  Lots of other folks, not so much.



No question, that’s not an option everyone has.  An Indian politician made that point months ago regarding lockdowns & quarantines in his country.

But in Japan- a country much more like ours, economically- you’re _expected_ to stay home when and if you can, or mask & glove up if you can’t.  And for the most part, that’s what happens.  It’s a wholly different set of expectations, up and down the societal strata.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I believe the word ”if” would be more accurate here.



I stand by "when".
No plan survives contact with the enemy.

And if what we implemented _was_ a medically-derived plan, it suffered gaping flaws that non-experts saw early on (pat self on back):
Little effort to contact trace unless the patient became Intensive Care serious.  
Did not distinguish between sick and healthy.  
Did not separate the sick from the healthy, nor put containment lines around areas known to be affected to prevent carriers from spreading it more widely.  
No research (or findings ignored) into immunobooster activities that would help civilians fend off exposure.  
Lockdowns had not been used against any other epidemic for a century; why was this the proper strategy and not another?  
The potential economic and psychological side-effects of universal lockdowns not taken seriously - and led straight to a violation of Hippocrates' maxim "First, do no harm" when they became actual effects.

 Hmph, I'm bleeding over from the plan to stubbornly refusing to adapt it as circumstances dictated, I'll stop now.


----------



## ccs

Eltab said:


> I stand by "when".
> No plan survives contact with the enemy.
> 
> And if what we implemented _was_ a medically-derived plan, it suffered gaping flaws that non-experts saw early on (pat self on back):
> Little effort to contact trace unless the patient became Intensive Care serious.
> Did not distinguish between sick and healthy.
> Did not separate the sick from the healthy, nor put containment lines around areas known to be affected to prevent carriers from spreading it more widely.
> No research (or findings ignored) into immunobooster activities that would help civilians fend off exposure.
> Lockdowns had not been used against any other epidemic for a century; why was this the proper strategy and not another?
> The potential economic and psychological side-effects of universal lockdowns not taken seriously - and led straight to a violation of Hippocrates' maxim "First, do no harm" when they became actual effects.
> 
> Hmph, I'm bleeding over from the plan to stubbornly refusing to adapt it as circumstances dictated, I'll stop now.



12% of a plan....  Winging it works in a sci-fi movie.  Not so much in a real life crisis.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> I stand by "when".
> No plan survives contact with the enemy.
> 
> And if what we implemented _was_ a medically-derived plan, it suffered gaping flaws that non-experts saw early on (pat self on back):
> Little effort to contact trace unless the patient became Intensive Care serious.
> Did not distinguish between sick and healthy.
> Did not separate the sick from the healthy, nor put containment lines around areas known to be affected to prevent carriers from spreading it more widely.
> No research (or findings ignored) into immunobooster activities that would help civilians fend off exposure.
> Lockdowns had not been used against any other epidemic for a century; why was this the proper strategy and not another?
> The potential economic and psychological side-effects of universal lockdowns not taken seriously - and led straight to a violation of Hippocrates' maxim "First, do no harm" when they became actual effects.
> 
> Hmph, I'm bleeding over from the plan to stubbornly refusing to adapt it as circumstances dictated, I'll stop now.



You can’t say a plan ”failed“ that most of the country did not even approach reasonable implementation of it.  And considering it “medically derived” when a good portion of our leadership either downplayed it or considered it a hoax is stretching things a bit.

The actual instructions from healthcare pros DID distinguish between the healthy and the sick, hence things like contact tracing.

Putting aside the time it took to devise tests to diagnose C19 in the first place, separating the sick from the healthy is problematic when @30% of the afflicted are asymptomatic for the bulk or entirety of their infectious period.  By the time we could ID the infected with any accuracy, C19 was pretty much endemic.  Simply putting up containment lines of barricades and road blocks would have been futile.

Similarly futile would be advocating immune boosting practices beyond what MDs typically advise of their patients.  This was a novel pathogen.  Even perfectly healthy people‘s immune systems could be overwhelmed because virtually nobody’s immune system had prior exposure to It.*

Lockdowns were used for this pandemic because _we had no vaccines or viable treatments for C19_ AND no way to diagnose those with C19 until they had been infectious for some time.  Also, if you look at the past 100 years of global responses to epidemics, you WILL see the use of lockdowns and mass quarantines for diseases like Ebola.

Epidemiologists DID acknowledge and openly discuss the economic and mental health care aspects of the lockdowns.  Some of the more...colorful commentators noted you can’t have a functioning economy if too many people are dead & dying.  (C19’s mortality rate hadn’t yet been calculated as a global average.)  And I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen reminder PSAs to check on friends and family to see how they handling things.

And if you think the Hippocratic Oath’s admonition about doing no harm is all encompassing and absolute, you must have SERIOUS problems with modern medical practice and pharmacology in general.







* Researchers have found that a small percentage of people exposed to some of the cold-causing coronaviruses had a slightly better immune response than those who hadn’t.


----------



## Hussar

And, frankly, the plan DID work.  That's what we mean when we talk about places like Japan.  The politicians got out of the way as much as they could and let the scientists do their jobs.  I remember one of my students commenting after watching American news that he was totally baffled as to why Trump and other politicians were on the news all the time.  What's the point of paying all those doctors if you're not going to use them?


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> And if what we implemented _was_ a medically-derived plan, it suffered gaping flaws that non-experts saw early on (pat self on back):




So, that patting yourself on the back - over 360,000 people are dead.  The self-righteous glee in that patting is inappropriate.

From there on - calling what was implemented a "medically derived plan" reads like sophistry to pat yourself on the back, while ignoring the actual events so you can claim intellectual credit.  This was a "medically derived plan" in the same way that homeopathic treatments are "derived" from real medicine.

There was a group of folks whose job it was to plan for events like this.  They did their jobs, and had plans.  The Powers that Be dismissed them, and discarded their plan.  From there on, there was no real plan, medically derived or otherwise.  There were some holding actions driven by what few people with sense were left could cajole people into taking.

Do not again refer to this as a "plan", like it was set up and faithfully executed.  We were not allowed that.

I have no sense of humor regarding people self-aggrandizing on the bodies of the dead.


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> I have no sense of humor regarding people self-aggrandizing on the bodies of the dead.




This is ad hominem.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Yeah, calling things a failure of the plan, when the actual recommendations were routinely ignored or modified because they didn't fit someone's political, social or economic agenda is more than a little off.


----------



## CleverNickName

It's still a failure, whether it's a "failure of the plan" or a "failure of the leadership."  There's more than one failure mode here, and the virus doesn't really care about the nuances between them.


----------



## Thomas Shey

CleverNickName said:


> It's still a failure, whether it's a "failure of the plan" or a "failure of the leadership."  There's more than one failure mode here, and the virus doesn't really care about the nuances between them.




Makes a hell of a difference if you're trying to fix it for next time though--and don't doubt for a moment there'll be a next time.


----------



## NotAYakk

So where I live now has 0.5% of the population having their first shot. (Well not my town; but the province.  Other parts of the province are harder hit, so got more doses earlier)









						Track every COVID-19 vaccine given in Canada. Our tracker outlines every dose delivered on what's been a long journey
					

Tracking progress of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout across Canada.




					www.thestar.com
				




I'm still worried that we need to hit 200k/day by summer.  But every day the death rate of Covid 19 is gonna drop as the vulnerable are protected.

In other news, the trials are wrapping up, and people who got the placebo are being offered real doses right away.


----------



## CleverNickName

Thomas Shey said:


> Makes a hell of a difference if you're trying to fix it for next time though--and don't doubt for a moment there'll be a next time.



Not really, though.  A failure anywhere in the system is a total failure of the system.  People are looking at it like it's a simple matter of finding the weakest link in a chain and strengthening it, but that's a poor analogy.  A better one is a balloon being popped by a variety of different-sized pins.  It doesn't matter _which _pin, because any single one of them will pop it just as effectively as any other.

Of course I'm exaggerating...the spread of the virus _can_ be limited, the curve can be flattened, measures can be taken.  But they aren't the targets we should be aiming for.  Total elimination of failures in any system is impossible, but that isn't a reason to abandon the effort.  I'm just saying that we need to give equal weight to all of the failures that we have observed, look for others that we might have missed, and then work to eliminate them equally.


----------



## NotAYakk

CleverNickName said:


> Not really, though.  A failure anywhere in the system is a total failure of the system.  People are looking at it like it's a simple matter of finding the weakest link in a chain and strengthening it, but that's a poor analogy.  A better one is a balloon being popped by a variety of different-sized pins.  It doesn't matter _which _pin, because any single one of them will pop it just as effectively as any other.



Sure, but even that is a lesson.

Take that balloon and turn it into a bag of smaller balloons.  Now just as many pins, but most of the balloon stays intact, instead of one popping it.

If a central government cannot be relied upon to provide a reasonable response, then form smaller cells to defend against a pandemic.  And plan to shut down travel better between cells (strongly) in order to prevent failure of a neighbour from causing you to fail.

This may require prep.  And only some places will do it.  But it is a take home lesson.

This pandemic was beatable.  We saw multiple countries do it.  Some had geographic and delay of introduction advantages, others did not.  Identify what stopped your area from winning; determine costs of addressing it.


----------



## Zsong

You guys are freaking terrifying.


----------



## CleverNickName

It IS freaking terrifying.

4,100 people died from Covid-19 in America yesterday alone.  That makes it the second-deadliest singe day in America...I think only the Galveston Hurricane beats it, and probably not for long.  (The Battle of Antietam: 3600 people. 9/11: 2,977 people.  Pearl Harbor: 2,400 people.)  There is no sign of it slowing.  We average thousands of deaths every single day here.

Also in America alone, over a quarter-million new cases were reported yesterday as well (260,973).  This is the highest number of cases reported in a single day here.  Of any virus, ever.

And it's incredibly frustrating to see all of this happening in real-time, watching our lawmakers talk about it like it's not a problem, refusing to follow the example set by other countries.  It's not like we _don't know what to do, _we just don't want to do it.  Our lawmakers are just standing around pointing fingers, more concerned about being re-elected and staying wealthy than they are about literally saving lives.

Sorry for the rant; I'm gonna go take some aspirin.


----------



## Deset Gled

Zsong said:


> You guys are freaking terrifying.




I'll bite.  The world is terrifying.  Anything specific bother you here?


----------



## Deset Gled

CleverNickName said:


> And it's incredibly frustrating to see all of this happening in real-time, watching our lawmakers talk about it like it's not a problem, refusing to follow the example set by other countries.  It's not like we _don't know what to do, _we just don't want to do it.  Our lawmakers are just standing around pointing fingers, more concerned about being re-elected and staying wealthy than they are about literally saving lives.




Our lawmakers are actively and deliberately lighting other fires to draw attention away from COVID.


----------



## Thomas Shey

CleverNickName said:


> Not really, though.  A failure anywhere in the system is a total failure of the system.  People are looking at it like it's a simple matter of finding the weakest link in a chain and strengthening it, but that's a poor analogy.  A better one is a balloon being popped by a variety of different-sized pins.  It doesn't matter _which _pin, because any single one of them will pop it just as effectively as any other.
> 
> Of course I'm exaggerating...the spread of the virus _can_ be limited, the curve can be flattened, measures can be taken.  But they aren't the targets we should be aiming for.  Total elimination of failures in any system is impossible, but that isn't a reason to abandon the effort.  I'm just saying that we need to give equal weight to all of the failures that we have observed, look for others that we might have missed, and then work to eliminate them equally.




Doesn't change the fact you need to know where the failures are to address it; if you think its a medical system failure and are working on that, and its a problem of political will, you're working the wrong problem.


----------



## Umbran

CleverNickName said:


> Not really, though.  A failure anywhere in the system is a total failure of the system.




If your brakes fail, that is a failure of the car.  However, the car's fuel injection system is not guilty by association of being in the same car.  When the brakes are the known and demonstrated problem, ranting about spark plugs is misplaced focus.


----------



## Zsong

Deset Gled said:


> I'll bite.  The world is terrifying.  Anything specific bother you here?



Just how everyone runs and cowers from it. One out of every 7 people in the 19th century died of tuberculosis. And then there was measles, whooping cough, small pox, wars and more.  I think we have raised a society of cowards that will be let authoritarians lock them up while their livelihoods are being destroyed and we are put into another Great Depression. That’s my opinion of these reactions to the pandemic.


----------



## MarkB

Zsong said:


> Just how everyone runs and cowers from it. One out of every 7 people in the 19th century died of tuberculosis. And then there was measles, whooping cough, small pox, wars and more.  I think we have raised a society of cowards that will be let authoritarians lock them up while their livelihoods are being destroyed and we are put into another Great Depression. That’s my opinion of these reactions to the pandemic.



When you're more worried about your own livelihood than someone else's life, that isn't courage.


----------



## Deset Gled

Deleted.


----------



## CleverNickName

I'm having trouble articulating, which happens when I'm emotional.

I'm trying to say that any failure in a virus control plan will lead to an outbreak, so if the goal is to stop outbreaks you have to focus on preventing _all _failures.  To borrow the car analogy, imagine if a crash would occur no matter what failed on the car....brake pads would be just as vital as the radio in that case, and it would be silly to argue for better radios while ignoring every other system.

I don't know how to build a fail-proof car, and I know that there is only so much that can be done.  I'm trying to suggest that all known failures be addressed with equal fervency.  Pointing fingers doesn't really work here.

Anyway, that's what I was trying to get across.  I'll move on.


----------



## Umbran

Zsong said:


> Just how everyone runs and cowers from it.




It has killed 360,000 people in the US.  More than one in a thousand.  Right now, it is killing more than 3,000 people per day.  And that's with what meager protections we have in place.  You want us to do _less_?


----------



## NotAYakk

Zsong said:


> Just how everyone runs and cowers from it. One out of every 7 people in the 19th century died of tuberculosis. And then there was measles, whooping cough, small pox, wars and more.  I think we have raised a society of cowards that will be let authoritarians lock them up while their livelihoods are being destroyed and we are put into another Great Depression. That’s my opinion of these reactions to the pandemic.



Yes, and know what else the 19th century was?  Really poor.

And part of that poverty was because ... of death by disease.

There are places that said "whatever, we'll stay open" ... their GDP fell by *more* than places that took it seriously, and more people died.

Now, until around this moment in time, defeating Covid-19 would be impossible.  Even 10 years ago - maybe even 5 - we'd lack the technology to do it.

So cowards who surrender to it, and say "we might as well let people die, not my problem" are sort of understandable.  They lack the courage and vision to see we *can* beat this pandemic.

And parts of the world have beaten it.  Your part of the world, maybe not, but that isn't because it wasn't worth the effort or whatever.  Maybe your part of the world maybe just wasn't *good enough* to pull off victory.  Losers... well, they lose.  Often they then tell a story about how their loserhood is great.

Not to say that having lots of dead meant you are a loser; you could have been ambushed by it before we had a clue what to do, like NYC, Wuhan or Italy; of course, SK also got ambushed about as early.  Or you could lack the economic strength to pull off what was needed (note that relatively poor economies seemed to have pulled it off (Vietnam, and some parts of Africa, for example)).

You can take pride in your failure, or you can learn from it and become a better place.  Because this isn't going to be the last pandemic.  And the next one might be worse.

Parts of the word hit hard by SARS (a previous pandemic we stopped dead before millions died) where much more ready for this one.  Because they had the courage and fortitude and foresight to actually have plans, then to execute plans, and then to beat it.

...

To be clear, I'm not running and cowering from it.  I'm protecting everyone else by staying distant.  Especially in the early parts of the pandemic, my personal risk from it was *really low*, but the collective risk from letting it spread *was just as bad* as now.

We have math.  We know the costs of letting it run loose -- about 1% of the world dead, as hospitals are overrun.  We know the costs of letting it slow burn -- about 0.5% dead, as about half of those who would have died are saved by health care.  Right now Canada is fighting to end with 0.1% dead, saving the lives of about 300,000 people over the alternative of surrender.  Other places pulled off basically 0% dead.

I personally think those lives where worth my crappy year.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> We have math.  We know the costs of letting it run loose -- about 1% of the world dead, as hospitals are overrun.  We know the costs of letting it slow burn -- about 0.5% dead, as about half of those who would have died are saved by health care.  Right now Canada is fighting to end with 0.1% dead, saving the lives of about 300,000 people over the alternative of surrender.  Other places pulled off basically 0% dead.
> 
> I personally think those lives where worth my crappy year.




To put some numbers on this...

The US population is about 330 million people.  As we currently understand it, to hit herd immunity and finally stop the pandemic, we'd need about 80% of the population to have gotten it.  That's about 264 million people who would have to get sick.

At a 1% fatality rate, that's two and a half million dead.  If it happens in a big rush, the death rate rises to more like 2% as health care services get overwhelmed.  Which results in 5 million people dead.

Thank you.  I will take some lean years and inconvenience over 5 million of my fellow citizens dead.  That's not cowering.  That's just recognizing those 5 million people matter.  Economics can be managed.  Dead cannot.


----------



## Mallus

Zsong said:


> Just how everyone runs and cowers from it. One out of every 7 people in the 19th century died of tuberculosis. And then there was measles, whooping cough, small pox, wars and more.



Yes. And at some point in history the average human life expectancy was below 30. At one point we were all subsistence farmers. Before that, hunter-gatherers.

Were you trying to make a point applicable to life now (in a developed country like the US)?


----------



## Zsong

Umbran said:


> It has killed 360,000 people in the US.  More than one in a thousand.  Right now, it is killing more than 3,000 people per day.  And that's with what meager protections we have in place.  You want us to do _less_?



That’s a nothing number and a fraudulent number.  There are 7 billion people on the planet. Tuberculosis was far worse and people went out and took care of their families.


----------



## CleverNickName

Zsong said:


> That’s a nothing number and a fraudulent number.  There are 7 billion people on the planet. Tuberculosis was far worse and people went out and took care of their families.



Nothing is zero.
360K is infinitely higher than nothing.

You want to make a point about percentages and history, but suggesting that hundreds of thousands of lives are "nothing" isn't the way to do it.


----------



## Zsong

CleverNickName said:


> Nothing is zero.
> 360K is infinitely higher than nothing.
> 
> You want to make a point about percentages and history, but suggesting that hundreds of thousands of lives are "nothing" isn't the way to do it.



I am saying the number is fraudulent and exaggerated. And is being used to take away our freedoms and rights and property while politicians are drunk with power and big corporations are getting wealthy and destroying small businesses. And people are losing their homes and livelihoods.


----------



## Garthanos

We have a plague rat who wants the freedumb to kill others with their dangerous behavior


----------



## CleverNickName

Zsong said:


> I am saying the number is fraudulent and exaggerated. And is being used to take away our freedoms and rights and property while politicians are drunk with power and big corporations are getting wealthy and destroying small businesses. And people are losing their homes and livelihoods.



The data does not support this.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zsong said:


> I am saying the number is fraudulent and exaggerated. And is being used to take away our freedoms and rights and property while politicians are drunk with power and big corporations are getting wealthy and destroying small businesses. And people are losing their homes and livelihoods.



It is probably an undercount of how many died.

In every serious outbreak, they sort of run out of time to test people who die before they get to hospital.  We saw this in Italy, we saw this in Washington, we saw this in NYC.

The US population growth rate is the lowest it has been since the 1918 flu.  These aren't phantom deaths.

Right now, 0.2% of everyone in the Dakotas is dead from Covid 19.

On top of this, dozens of countries are seeing piles of dead people.  Doctors from all over the world are witnessing overpacked wards with people dieing from Covid.

How big of a conspiracy do you think this is that is exagerrating it?  Is it 90% of medical professionals, every major world power, every department of health, every epidemiologist?  Because *that is what it would take to fake this*.

The deaths from covid 19 are underestimated, because we know people die from it in ways that aren't "catch pneumonia and die".  The deaths we catch are mostly those.

I mean:



how in the world would you FAKE THAT.


----------



## Zsong

CleverNickName said:


> The data does not support this.



Who’s data. Fauci, world health organization, bill gates.


----------



## CleverNickName

Zsong said:


> Who’s data. Fauci, world health organization, bill gates.



If you don't know data from conjecture or rumor, this conversation can't even start.


----------



## Thomas Shey

CleverNickName said:


> I'm having trouble articulating, which happens when I'm emotional.
> 
> I'm trying to say that any failure in a virus control plan will lead to an outbreak, so if the goal is to stop outbreaks you have to focus on preventing _all _failures.  To borrow the car analogy, imagine if a crash would occur no matter what failed on the car....brake pads would be just as vital as the radio in that case, and it would be silly to argue for better radios while ignoring every other system.
> 
> I don't know how to build a fail-proof car, and I know that there is only so much that can be done.  I'm trying to suggest that all known failures be addressed with equal fervency.  Pointing fingers doesn't really work here.
> 
> Anyway, that's what I was trying to get across.  I'll move on.




I think this assumes all failure points are equally frequent and equally important.  I don't think that's supportable.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> To put some numbers on this...
> 
> The US population is about 330 million people.  As we currently understand it, to hit herd immunity and finally stop the pandemic, we'd need about 80% of the population to have gotten it.  That's about 264 million people who would have to get sick.
> 
> At a 1% fatality rate, that's two and a half million dead.  If it happens in a big rush, the death rate rises to more like 2% as health care services get overwhelmed.  Which results in 5 million people dead.
> 
> Thank you.  I will take some lean years and inconvenience over 5 million of my fellow citizens dead.  That's not cowering.  That's just recognizing those 5 million people matter.  Economics can be managed.  Dead cannot.




Probably worse; if you completely overwhelm the medical system, besides saveable COVID cases dying, you also lose people who you'd normally save at risk from other causes because they don't get treated as promptly or properly as they could be.  That's bound to already happened to some degree, we just don't know how to attach proper numbers to it.


----------



## CleverNickName

Thomas Shey said:


> I think this assumes all failure points are equally frequent and equally important.  I don't think that's supportable.



Yeah, that's the assumption I am making.  But I'm also assuming "failure" means "outbreak," too, which makes the first assumption more supportable (but still not perfect).  Failure is hard to describe for some folks, too.  Some people only consider a plan to have failed if the stock market drops by a certain number of points, for example.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zsong said:


> Who’s data. Fauci, world health organization, bill gates.




Do they need to come pile the bodies in front of your door before you believe it?


----------



## Thomas Shey

CleverNickName said:


> Yeah, that's the assumption I am making.  But I'm also assuming "failure" means "outbreak," which not everyone agrees on either.  Some people only consider a plan to have failed if the stock market drops by a certain number of points, for example.




I'm arguing a failure of the medical process is more severe but less likely, and a failure of the politics is more likely if less severe (only because if you don't know how to properly address the problem, it doesn't much matter if you have the will to or not, but if you know how, even the lack of political will will leave the tools for at least _some_ people to take precautions).


----------



## Zsong

Thomas Shey said:


> Do they need to come pile the bodies in front of your door before you believe it?



It’s just the flu. A bad flu year. That’s it.


----------



## Morrus

Zsong said:


> Who’s data. Fauci, world health organization, bill gates.



Don’t post in this thread again. Don’t spread harmful false health information. Don’t use my site to spread harmful conspiracy theories.


----------



## Zsong

Morrus said:


> Don’t post in this thread again. Don’t spread harmful false health information. Don’t use my site to spread harmful conspiracy theories.



You are an idiot. And a destroyer of lives.


----------



## Morrus

Folks, Zsong has left us (again, apparently; gonna need to clean up a few alts). Please do not reply to those comments.


----------



## billd91

Zsong said:


> It’s just the flu. A bad flu year. That’s it.



FYI for everyone: A bad flu year is 60,000 deaths. An average one is 35,000. 360,000 deaths is *not* a bad flu year by a long shot.


----------



## cmad1977

Zsong said:


> It’s just the flu. A bad flu year. That’s it.




You can always tell who the incel is.


----------



## Mallus

billd91 said:


> FYI for everyone: A bad flu year is 60,000 deaths. An average one is 35,000. 360,000 deaths is *not* a bad flu year by a long shot.



But 6x = x (where x <> 0) in the math of the brave and free!


----------



## CleverNickName

I read about science/fact deniers all the time, and they never really seem real to me.  Flat-earthers, Antivaxers, Illuminati watchers, they all just sound so laughable, like a comedy bit or a cartoon.  "Surely nobody actually _believes_ that rhetoric," I'll chuckle to myself.  And then I meet one in real life and have to do a double-take.


----------



## NotAYakk

billd91 said:


> FYI for everyone: A bad flu year is 60,000 deaths. An average one is 35,000. 360,000 deaths is *not* a bad flu year by a long shot.



And we can actually detect and distinguish between influenza and covid-19.

So the thing is nobody is rational.  "Rational" people are at best people who have as psrt of their self image that they are rational, so feel discomfort when confronted with rational arguments that disagree with their behaviours or beliefs.

But really, people are a near random collection of habits and beliefs.  And irrational habits or beliefs?  They don't really harm you that much.  You don't end up dead very often from believing false things; so long as you mosey along and mostly do things that other people around you do (plus a bit of random crap), you'll do fine, ish.

Thing is, deciding what to do "rationally" is insanely hard.  Nobody is actually smart enough to do it.  And even people who think they are rational?  They can be hacked with "rational" arguments that lead to false conclusions.  Being "rational" can make you a mark, because you just exposed your OODA loop.

What more, as luck (of birth, skills, or habits) tends to matter much more than "rational" does, it doesn't even correlate with *power*.

The bigest sanction 90/100 people will get from being a flat earther is a social one.  Hell, it would only be marginally harder to learn how to fly a plane as a true flat earther believer; just compartamentalize the job from your beliefs.

So you got this bundle of random behaviour, and people actively hacking you with belief systems that make you feel good and make you a mark for the next one.


----------



## ccs

CleverNickName said:


> I read about science/fact deniers all the time, and they never really seem real to me.  Flat-earthers, Antivaxers, Illuminati watchers, they all just sound so laughable, like a comedy bit or a cartoon.  "Surely nobody actually _believes_ that rhetoric," I'll chuckle to myself.  And then I meet one in real life and have to do a double-take.




At least with the Illuminate watcher types they MIGHT actually be seeing {something}.  After all, there ARE people who're plotting things, acting suspicious, etc.  Add in a dose of imagination &/or crazy on the viewers end &....


----------



## Imaculata

Thomas Shey said:


> Probably worse; if you completely overwhelm the medical system, besides saveable COVID cases dying, you also lose people who you'd normally save at risk from other causes because they don't get treated as promptly or properly as they could be.  That's bound to already happened to some degree, we just don't know how to attach proper numbers to it.




To give an example of this, the mother of a good friend of mine recently had to be rushed to hospital for an operation. Due to how much covid had overwhelmed the hospital, they had to set priorities and determine how urgent this operation was. Doctors determined that it was urgent enough to get her into surgery immediately, but many other patients have to wait. Covid has overwhelmed the hospitals so much, that people could (and will) simply die from having delays of their operation.

After the operation, there were complications. Although the operation itself was succesful, she experienced internal bleeding afterwards. A new operation had to be scheduled amidst this crisis. Normally they'd get you under the knife again asap, but that simply wasn't possible this time around. She had to wait a few days.

She's alright though. Everything went fine. But it is easy to see how simple delays like that can cost lives.


----------



## Imaculata

Thomas Shey said:


> Do they need to come pile the bodies in front of your door before you believe it?




I tried to explain this to my covid-conspiracy crazy friend. I showed him pictures of the military convoys in Italy carrying all the bodies. But there is no reasoning with people consumed by this cult. 

According to a Dutch nurse, and I quote:

'They are so far down the rabbit hole that they'll keep insisting that "it's just a flue" as they are on ventilators and breath their final breath. It is horrific.'


----------



## Hussar

Zsong said:


> Just how everyone runs and cowers from it. One out of every 7 people in the 19th century died of tuberculosis. And then there was measles, whooping cough, small pox, wars and more.  I think we have raised a society of cowards that will be let authoritarians lock them up while their livelihoods are being destroyed and we are put into another Great Depression. That’s my opinion of these reactions to the pandemic.



Yup.  Took centuries for it to kill that many people.  In a single year, Covid-19 has killed 1% of the US population.  One year.  With the best modern medicine on the planet.  

Say we step back and do nothing.  So, in 10 years, Covid-19 will surpass the total deaths of Tuberculosis.  

And this is a good thing?    You figure losing 10% of your population in 10 years won't devastate your country?


----------



## Hussar

The Boss said:
			
		

> Folks, Zsong has left us (again, apparently; gonna need to clean up a few alts). Please do not reply to those comments.




Sorry @Morrus.  Didn't see this until after I posted.  :'(


----------



## NotAYakk

Hussar said:


> Yup.  Took centuries for it to kill that many people.  In a single year, Covid-19 has killed 1% of the US population.  One year.  With the best modern medicine on the planet.
> 
> Say we step back and do nothing.  So, in 10 years, Covid-19 will surpass the total deaths of Tuberculosis.
> 
> And this is a good thing?    You figure losing 10% of your population in 10 years won't devastate your country?



It is currently between 0.1% and 0.2%, not 1%.

In areas where it mass infects it hits around 1%.

Death rates have fallen.  Apparently mostly because doctors are no longer trying crazy treatments en mass, and just accepting a large fraction of people on vents die; with crazy treatments, more died.  And I think they found like 1 or 2 non-garbage treatments. (The next time you have some expert talk about novel treatments remember this.  Doctors are people, and they want to do _something_ to prevent death, so they try.  And often it fails.  When about 50% death is baseline, it is *hard* to tease out if your intervention helped or hindered.)

Manhatten is well passed 30% infected, but short of 100%.  Dakotas are also up there now; they are approaching 0.2% total population dead with only a modest slow down in death rates.

Vaccinations should reduce death rates faster than it does infection rates, as we innoculate the vulnerable first.  So hopefully the next wave (in places where the first stopped) won't be as deadly.


----------



## briggart

Hussar said:


> Yup.  Took centuries for it to kill that many people.  In a single year, Covid-19 has killed 1% of the US population.  One year.  With the best modern medicine on the planet.
> 
> Say we step back and do nothing.  So, in 10 years, Covid-19 will surpass the total deaths of Tuberculosis.
> 
> And this is a good thing?    You figure losing 10% of your population in 10 years won't devastate your country?



Minor nitpicking, it has killed about 1.5% of the infected, corresponding to ~ 0.1% of total US population. Not that this changes anything about the gravity of the situation.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> So the thing is nobody is rational.  "Rational" people are at best people who have as psrt of their self image that they are rational, so feel discomfort when confronted with rational arguments that disagree with their behaviours or beliefs.




My understanding of the neuro- and cognitive sciences say this is not quite right.  It'd be more accurate to say that people can be rational, but they have to work at it and don't always manage it.



NotAYakk said:


> Thing is, deciding what to do "rationally" is insanely hard.  Nobody is actually smart enough to do it.




Sure we are.  The issue isn't one of being "smart enough".  It is about being aware what it going on inside your head, and purposefully setting up patterns to avoid traps.  You might consider that, in fact, each of us is of two minds.  They speak with the same voice, though, so it can be hard to distinguish them if you aren't careful.

The human brain has a set of structures collectively called the "limbic system".  It is responsible for regulating your endocrine system, processing your response to emotional stimuli, and reinforcing behavior.  For our purposes, you may consider this the "Oh sh*t, jaguar!" portion of your brain.  It isn't precisely illogical, so much as it is based on getting you a fast response based on only small bits of information.  When there is, in fact, a jaguar in the tall grass, you want the limbic system, as it gets you the fear response you need to rev up your adrenaline and get your feet moving.  When there may be a jaguar, the cost of being wrong is small, compared to the value of being right, so the limbic response is useful and appropriate.

You also have structures in your brain that can process cold, clear logic very well.  But they are glacially slow compared to the limbic system.  By the time you have processed a rational response, the limbic system has already gotten its answer out there, and you're already acting on it.  

Also relevant for our discussion - the limbic system does not differentiate between physical and social threats.  Someone coming at you with a club is not all that different from a person about to cause you great loss of face, from the limbic standpoint.

Our collective problem being that there are very few jaguars any more.  For modern life, we really want the reasoned response that is so often drowned out or colored by the limbic response.  And, we can get it, but it takes practice to filter out the nonsense, and anyone can occasionally fail.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Imaculata said:


> To give an example of this, the mother of a good friend of mine recently had to be rushed to hospital for an operation. Due to how much covid had overwhelmed the hospital, they had to set priorities and determine how urgent this operation was. Doctors determined that it was urgent enough to get her into surgery immediately, but many other patients have to wait. Covid has overwhelmed the hospitals so much, that people could (and will) simply die from having delays of their operation.
> 
> After the operation, there were complications. Although the operation itself was succesful, she experienced internal bleeding afterwards. A new operation had to be scheduled amidst this crisis. Normally they'd get you under the knife again asap, but that simply wasn't possible this time around. She had to wait a few days.
> 
> She's alright though. Everything went fine. But it is easy to see how simple delays like that can cost lives.




I live in Los Angeles County; when you hear about ambulances driving around for hours and paramedics treating people outside the hospital because they just can't wait any longer, you know its gotten pretty bad.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Imaculata said:


> I tried to explain this to my covid-conspiracy crazy friend. I showed him pictures of the military convoys in Italy carrying all the bodies. But there is no reasoning with people consumed by this cult.
> 
> According to a Dutch nurse, and I quote:
> 
> 'They are so far down the rabbit hole that they'll keep insisting that "it's just a flue" as they are on ventilators and breath their final breath. It is horrific.'




Yeah, I've heard of that sort of thing from doctors in the U.S.  Its become so much of their world view that they cling to it until literally the end.


----------



## Thomas Shey

NotAYakk said:


> Vaccinations should reduce death rates faster than it does infection rates, as we innoculate the vulnerable first.  So hopefully the next wave (in places where the first stopped) won't be as deadly.




Might get lost in the noise given the new strain though; if the infection rate is 70% greater (the number I've seen quoted) but the death rate once infected is the same, its going to take a little bit before you get much net gain there.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

My sister-in-law (a nurse) just got her first Covid vaccine shot. Super-excited for her, but she did have a nasty reaction - a brief spike in fever up to 104. Thankfully it was brought down to 99 with some aspirin. 

My brother apparently also qualifies for earlier vaccination, much to his surprise (he's a psychologist). Me, as an IT worker, I figure I'm going to be waiting a good long while.


----------



## cmad1977

Thomas Shey said:


> I live in Los Angeles County; when you hear about ambulances driving around for hours and paramedics treating people outside the hospital because they just can't wait any longer, you know its gotten pretty bad.




We’re literally triaging people in the streets. “But it’s a hoax!”


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> My understanding of the neuro- and cognitive sciences say this is not quite right.  It'd be more accurate to say that people can be rational, but they have to work at it and don't always manage it.




One of the biggest parts is working against confirmation bias.  That can be an uphill fight.

(Good discussion of limbic response, by the by).


----------



## Thomas Shey

cmad1977 said:


> We’re literally triaging people in the streets. “But it’s a hoax!”




Conspiracy thinking is a powerful drug.  Once you decide that people really are doing massive manipulations of process and hiding it successfully, its a very hard position to crack because its self-reinforcing, and then confirmation bias does the rest.


----------



## Umbran

I've heard two useful things to remember:

1) You cannot awaken a person who is not asleep. 

2) You cannot reason a person out of a position they did not come into by reason.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> Sure we are.  The issue isn't one of being "smart enough".  It is about being aware what it going on inside your head, and purposefully setting up patterns to avoid traps.  You might consider that, in fact, each of us is of two minds.  They speak with the same voice, though, so it can be hard to distinguish them if you aren't careful.
> 
> The human brain has a set of structures collectively called the "limbic system".  It is responsible for regulating your endocrine system, processing your response to emotional stimuli, and reinforcing behavior.  For our purposes, you may consider this the "Oh sh*t, jaguar!" portion of your brain.  It isn't precisely illogical, so much as it is based on getting you a fast response based on only small bits of information.  When there is, in fact, a jaguar in the tall grass, you want the limbic system, as it gets you the fear response you need to rev up your adrenaline and get your feet moving.  When there may be a jaguar, the cost of being wrong is small, compared to the value of being right, so the limbic response is useful and appropriate.
> 
> You also have structures in your brain that can process cold, clear logic very well.  But they are glacially slow compared to the limbic system.  By the time you have processed a rational response, the limbic system has already gotten its answer out there, and you're already acting on it.
> 
> Also relevant for our discussion - the limbic system does not differentiate between physical and social threats.  Someone coming at you with a club is not all that different from a person about to cause you great loss of face, from the limbic standpoint.
> 
> Our collective problem being that there are very few jaguars any more.  For modern life, we really want the reasoned response that is so often drowned out or colored by the limbic response.  And, we can get it, but it takes practice to filter out the nonsense, and anyone can occasionally fail.



I'm not certain what you mean by logic here.  If you mean "anything that isn't a reflex", well sure.

I'm talking about logic, like correct lines of reason from explicitly assumed facts following assumed correct rules resulting in a sound conclusion.

I know people who did PHDs in proof theory, where they try to make formal mathematical proofs to be *actually sound*, and it is hard.  Even in the strange atmosphere of formal mathematics, basically *everyone uses shortcuts* and cheats with heuristics and skipping steps.

Sometimes those skipped steps are valid, and sometimes they are not.

Bubbling up from there, you can "rationally" decide X or Y, but that "rational" decision is at _best_ *rationalized*.  Ie, you can produce a "rational justification" for your decision, *that decision wasn't made based off a logical deduction*.

And, at _best_, because your self image is "I am rational", someone else presenting an argument using the language of rationality will generate cognitive dissonance, and make you uncomfortable with your decision, and you might accept *their* "rational justification" to change your behavior.

But you almost certainly *did not* actually determine if their argument was actually sound or not, because I've seen what it actually takes to determine if a chain of logic is sound, and I don't believe you are doing that.

You _rationalized_ it was sound at best.  You where convinced to build an argument to yourself in the language of rationality that justified your change of position.

Believing you are rational, and believing that rational argument can change your actions, means that you are predisposed to listen to arguments framed as rational, and if you ignore them you may experience cognitive dissonance.  So it isn't *nothing*.  But it doesn't mean "your actions are based off cold, clear logic".  Almost all of your actions are based off heuristics and feelings; *at best* those heuristics and feelings can be modified by certain kinds of rational-language arguments and self discipline, and you can generate a plausible "rationalization" for your heuristics and feelings after the fact.

And even if you decided to turn your decision in an area into an algorithm -- say, take a bunch of resumes and score them using as close to objective criteria as you can, enter the results in a spreadsheet, and calculate points -- the criteria and calculation choices you make in turn aren't going to be based off pure cold logic almost certainly.  And if they are, then the base for those in turn won't be based off pure cold logic.

Actually building a pure cold logic chain to make even the simplest decision in the most constrained environment is insanely hard.  And what you get out of it isn't "this is true", but a conditional claim which you have to use heuristics to map over to "pretty much true", like "assuming model X is consistent, and my association between the formal symbols and what I consider counting numbers is sound, then there is an infinite number of primes".

So no, nobody is smart enough to do that for their actions.   You can use the self image of "rationality" to iterate on your heuristics and feelings, but the cost of actually making decisions and acting on pure logic is crazy.

---

This does mean it is possible to reason a person out of a position they did not come to by reason, *if they consider themselves to be reasonable*.  But it isn't easy, because every rational reason-based argument you have ever made is full of holes, because every such argument is full of holes.  And the ones that aren't are so large that you can't hold them in your head all at once, *and* contain things that aren't holes that look like holes.

Rational arguments are arguments some people are predisposed to listen to.  Agreeing on the value of Rational arguments can be done *without* believing that you are rational.

The problem with believing you are rational is that it means your actions are rational, which can sort of excuse you from being responsible for your actions.  Engineers disease is when you are an expert in one area, and you hold "I'm smart, so my decisions must be right and rational" once you convince yourself of something (often outside of your area of expertise).

Ie, the trap can look like this: As a rational person, your rational decision that racism isn't real (or whatever) is rational.  And as a smart person, your rational belief is more right than others.  People arguing the other side just aren't as smart and rational as you.

If you instead decide "I am not rational", believe that you should listen to rational arguments in order to improve yourself, but accept that many of your actions aren't going to be rational.  When someone comes at you with a poisonous rational argument, you can explicitly know "there is a danger in exposing my OODA loop, and this person might be attacking me with this", and try to avoid the trap.

For example, if someone gave me an unassailable rational argument to do something particularly horrible, I wouldn't judge it only on the soundness of the argument.  I'd consider the possibility my ability to understand the argument is imperfect (because I'm not a cold logic machine, and I as a human suck at it), and consider the possibility that someone is weaponizing rational arguments against me.


----------



## MarkB

Thomas Shey said:


> I live in Los Angeles County; when you hear about ambulances driving around for hours and paramedics treating people outside the hospital because they just can't wait any longer, you know its gotten pretty bad.



In London the mayor has declared a state of emergency due to critical shortage of hospital places, and they're drafting in firefighters to drive the ambulances.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> I'm not certain what you mean by logic here.  If you mean "anything that isn't a reflex", well sure.
> 
> I'm talking about logic, like correct lines of reason from explicitly assumed facts following assumed correct rules resulting in a sound conclusion.




Yep.  That's fine.  I'm a physicist, and have had far more training than most on formal logic.  A bit later we will have to talk about the differences between logical and reasonable/rational, but we can start here.



NotAYakk said:


> I know people who did PHDs in proof theory, where they try to make formal mathematical proofs to be *actually sound*, and it is hard.  Even in the strange atmosphere of formal mathematics, basically *everyone uses shortcuts* and cheats with heuristics and skipping steps.




Sure.  And in physics we use approximations.  However, what you are missing there is the differences in the level of complexity of the logic required by a formal mathematician and a typical person in day-to-day life.  You don't need to be able to solve Fermat's Last Theorem in order to make a reasoned choice about whether to get your kids vaccinated.



NotAYakk said:


> Bubbling up from there, you can "rationally" decide X or Y, but that "rational" decision is at _best_ *rationalized*.  Ie, you can produce a "rational justification" for your decision, *that decision wasn't made based off a logical deduction*.




So, here's the kicker - how did you come to that conclusion?  By your own posit, at _best_ your own position on this is rationalized - a veneer you have placed on what is really either an emotional stance or the result of a cognitive shortcut.  Your stance, by your own assertion, _cannot_ be logical.

Therefore, your position cannot be trusted, now can it?


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> Sure.  And in physics we use approximations.  However, what you are missing there is the differences in the level of complexity of the logic required by a formal mathematician and a typical person in day-to-day life.  You don't need to be able to solve Fermat's Last Theorem in order to make a reasoned choice about whether to get your kids vaccinated.



Yes, deciding to get your kids vaccinated using pure rationality is insanely harder than solving Fermat's Last Theorem using pure rationality.

We just _don't do it_ when deciding to get your kids vaccinated or not.  We use heuristics (including beliefs) and habits, and we are influenced to change those based on arguments and information.  Those who believe themselves rational take pride in their ability to be able to rationalize their choices, and often in listening to rationally-framed arguments and information.  So they are sometimes ore amenable to those kinds of arguments and information.



Umbran said:


> So, here's the kicker - how did you come to that conclusion?  By your own posit, at _best_ your own position on this is rationalized - a veneer you have placed on what is really either an emotional stance or the result of a cognitive shortcut.  Your stance, by your own assertion, _cannot_ be logical.
> 
> Therefore, your position cannot be trusted, now can it?



If you hold that the only positions that can be trusted are those grounded in purely rational arguments, then nothing can be trusted.

That position is an artifact of believing that you are able to express, understand and evaluate purely rational arguments about reality, and only those arguments can be trusted.

And yes, my position is _rationalized_.  You aren't seeing a proof that I'm right.  You are seeing a rationalization for my position.  This rationalization may be persuasive to you.  And rational arguments back?  I often find them persuastive as well, *even if I don't believe I made decisions rationally*.

I think that believing I make decisions rationally doesn't match observations, it doesn't match observations I have of other people, and from what little I understand of how people think, it doesn't match either.  I also find that people having pride that "they are rational" is not that uncommon, and the belief (to me) seems to explain behavior better than them actually being rational.

I make rational arguments to myself all the time, and I find rational arguments persuasive (even ones I use on myself!), and sometimes I attempt (with limited success) to change my heuristics and habits based on them.  This *may* result in some of my actions moving in a way that is somehow objectively rational, but I don't have that much faith in it.

But if someone gives me a rational argument why I should, I dunno, torture and kill a bunch of babies?  *I don't care* if the logic of the argument is unassailable.  I might listen in order to determine if my guess is that they are plausibly going to follow through, and then attempt to prevent it.

And far less extreme rational arguments are going to run into similar "tripwire" heuristics.

Someone who believes they are a rational person might run into cognitive dissonance that "but the logic was unassailable that I should do the horrible thing".  I think that is a trap.


----------



## Garthanos

NotAYakk said:


> It is currently between 0.1% and 0.2%, not 1%.



2 percent of those cases classified as resolved in my county are deaths...  and we have very solid medical that is not near overwhelmed yet.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> 2 percent of those cases classified as resolved in my county are deaths...  and we have very solid medical that is not overwhelmed yet



I think one of you may be talking about % of cases, ane the other talking about % of population.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> I think one of you may be talking about % of cases, ane the other talking about % of population.



sure however if we see the thing occurring over many years the cases without the controls we are putting on it now == the population especially with upcoming even more contagious versions (an overwhelmed medical system is 5 to 10 percent on death rates)


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Yes, deciding to get your kids vaccinated using pure rationality is insanely harder than solving Fermat's Last Theorem using pure rationality.




So, now we get into the difference between logic and being rational/reasonable.

Absolute, pure, unadulterated Vulcan logic has few places in modern life, for one simple reason - logic ultimately requires you to know the actual (and absolute) values of variables.  If you include so much as a rounding error in pure logic, the thing can fall apart.  We lack such complete knowledge of our universe, so pure logic is denied us in most practical matters.  It is a Star Trek fiction.

We can, however, be _reasonable_.  Being reasonable is being fairly logical, but with some boundaries around what inputs and results you accept to handle the fact that logic isn't everything.

It is very, very easy to come to a _reasonable_ conclusion about vaccination, while Fermat's Last Theorem is very difficult.


----------



## CleverNickName

CleverNickName said:


> 4,100 people died from Covid-19 in America yesterday alone.  That makes it the second-deadliest singe day in America...I think only the Galveston Hurricane beats it, and probably not for long.
> ...
> Also in America alone, over a quarter-million new cases were reported yesterday as well (260,973).  This is the highest number of cases reported in a single day here.  Of any virus, ever.



America broke both of these records again yesterday (4,207 dead and 279,154 new cases in America.)  On a list of the Top Ten Deadliest Days in America, eight of them are from Covid-19.  The surprise attack on Pearl Harbor doesn't even make the top 20 anymore.

Still no new policies have been implemented, and there has been no new guidance from our leaders.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> So, now we get into the difference between logic and being rational/reasonable.
> 
> Absolute, pure, unadulterated Vulcan logic has few places in modern life, for one simple reasons - logic ultimately requires you to know the actual (and absolute) values of variables.  If you include so much as a rounding error in pure logic, the thing can fall apart.  We lack such complete knowledge of our universe, so pure logic is denied us in most practical matters.  It is a Star Trek fiction.



I can do logic on things when I don't require the actual and absolute values of variables.

You draw different conclusions based on that fact than you could with the actual and absolute values of variables.


Spoiler



To digress...

Hell -- Constructive Analysis | E. Bishop | Springer -- here is a branch of mathematics where we do away with the law of excluded middle and a few other axioms, and we get a pretty good argument that all provable theorems also produce what they claim exists.

Due to the restrictions on the operations we are allowed to do, there are things you cannot prove in this branch that you could prove in more classical analysis, like the intermediate value theorem.

In classical analysis, if you have a continuous function defined on a closed interval such that it is less than 0 at the start, and greater than 0 at the end, we can prove that there is a point in the middle where its value is 0.

In the above constructive analysis we cannot prove it; instead, we can prove that for any non-zero window of precision we want, we can find an value between the start and the end that maps at least *that close to 0.*

Here we have a version of formal analysis that embraces and accepts imprecision and the limits of our ability to reason about infinities concretely.  Now, while it is a "fun" read, it turns out some mad science physicist types have gone off and used it to form an alternative construction of relativistic models of the big bang and generated an irreversible arrow of time from it, which is neat; basically, there isn't enough room in the universe early on for the arrow of time to go backwards into it.  Pop sci version: Does Time Really Flow? New Clues Come From a Century-Old Approach to Math.


In any case, yes, Spock isn't what I'm talking about.

It is possible to do logical rational reasoning based off incomplete and error prone data.  It is just *hard*.

Formal logic is insanely easier; the difference is that formal logic there is *some hope* of spotting errors.  Because of that, they actually attempt to avoid errors.  And people working in relatively formal logic *still* use heuristics rather than actually provably correct steps, except as an academic exercise by logicians (and occassionally such exercises find errors in arguments).

In comparison, in everyday reasoning, errors in deduction are basically impossible to eliminate; beyond that, the raw amount of state it takes to reason about a non-trivial conjecture is so ridiculously huge that if you think you are reasoning without pencil and paper, you aren't; you are (again) applying heuristics.  If it is an area of expertise, you are probably using heuristics to reduce the complexity of the problem down to what your experience has told you are relevant details; if it isn't, you are using heuristics to reduce the complexity of the problem down to irrelevant details.



Umbran said:


> We can, however, be _reasonable_.  Being reasonable is being fairly logical, but with some boundaries around what inputs and results you accept to handle the fact that logic isn't everything.
> 
> It is very, very easy to come to a _reasonable_ conclusion about vaccination, while Fermat's Last Theorem is very difficult.



Naw, Fermat's Last Theorem is easy to have a reasonable conclusion about.  It remains a bunch of symbols on the page.

It is plausible to actually *check* and have *expertise* in knowing if the proof of Fermat's Last Theorem is valid, and for that expertise in turn to be objectively and clearly checked. I mean, I haven't _done_ that, but I think I know how hard it is to find out if someone is blathering nonsense about mathematics (my technique involves a ladder of trust basically).


Spoiler



On the subject of vaccination; hell, on the subject of "does the sun come up tomorrow" -- that is so insanely hard to have expertise on it isn't funny, compared to formal mathematics.

Math is only hard because it is so easy, we have built insane constructs on it, and those insane constructs keep on seeming to generate interesting truths.

So *we don't even try*. We hand wave heuristics around. Some more hand wavey than others.

I use a heuristic that people who are expert epidemiologists probably aren't clueless about epidemiology.  Also, that there are going to be better statisticians than me looking at the papers involved.   When I run into statistical claims in popular media about anti virus effectiveness, I do napkin math to see if they are plausible; if I find a mistake, I'll iterate on the assumption that the communication was fuzzy.

Does that work?  I don't know.  I haven't build a model of if my napkin math is worth the credibility I put in it (I probably lack the expertise to know if I'm a statistical idiot, most people do; heuristically, I have evidence I am not, but again... I know I have been an idiot about subjects I didn't think I was an idiot on in the past, so why presume I'm not an idiot today?)

Down that infinite regress, I just drop it (unless I feel bored).  Why?  Heuristics.  I wasted time on that kind of iteration before.


----------



## Garthanos

never mind that ;p


----------



## Eltab

CleverNickName said:


> America broke both of these records again yesterday (4,207 dead and 279,154 new cases in America.)  On a list of the Top Ten Deadliest Days in America, eight of them are from Covid-19.  The surprise attack on Pearl Harbor doesn't even make the top 20 anymore.
> 
> Still no new policies have been implemented, and there has been no new guidance from our leaders.



in the US, there currently is _nobody_ from whom the bureaucracy will accept orders if given (this has been true since Election Day).  So we run on autopilot for another two weeks.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> I can do logic on things when I don't require the actual and absolute values of variables.




Now you are just contradicting yourself.

First, the _best_ one can do is rationalize.  But now you can do logic.  Your discussion is not cogent or consistent, so I'm not going to engage with it further.  Have a good weekend.


----------



## NotAYakk

I can do logic.  I can do symbol manipulation, check proofs, and with low fidelity and lots of effort connect those symbols to things in the world.

But I can't live my life rationally, because rational decision making is insanely expensive.

You have to use heristics and habits to determine your actions, both immediatly and in aggregate.

And anyone thinking they are making their decisions rationally is fooling themselves.  At best they can produce rationalizations for their actions, and adapt their actions when convinced by rational sounding arguments.

I don't see the contradiction.  My issue is that the problem is intractible; I don't believe anyone is that smart.

Maybe I'm wrong and all of these people claiming to be "rational" are actually amazingly smarter than I can understand.

More likely they are using "rational" to mean something I am not.  So my model is that they have heuristics and habits and beliefs and an ability to rationalize, and a  self image that they are "rational" so when confronted with arguments framed as "rational" feel they should be persuaded by them.

And they call that "being rational".

But I could be wrong.


----------



## Imaculata

I think being rational just means you are willing to listen to the arguments of others with an open mind, and are willing to move on your position if the arguments are strong enough. A rational person in my view, is someone who is willing to change their mind, and admit that their previously helt beliefs were wrong. They are a person not completely entrenched in their opinion, and open to logic.

Of course even a rational person can be convinced by irrational or flawed arguments.


----------



## ccs

NotAYakk said:


> But I could be wrong.




You most definitely are.


----------



## Eltab

Imaculata said:


> I think being rational just means you are willing to listen to the arguments of others with an open mind, and are willing to move on your position if the arguments are strong enough. A rational person in my view, is someone who is willing to change their mind, and admit that their previously helt beliefs were wrong. They are a person not completely entrenched in their opinion, and open to logic.
> 
> Of course even a rational person can be convinced by irrational or flawed arguments.



And a rational person will go check claims made in an argument against the state of the real world.
Claim 1 "The sky is blue"
Claim 2 "The sky is grey"
Rational "Let's look out a window."


----------



## Thomas Shey

Of course it helps if you can _get_ to a window.


----------



## MarkB

Thomas Shey said:


> Of course it helps if you can _get_ to a window.



And, of course, two people looking out of windows in two different places might get different results. The one in an overcast area will see a different colour than the one on a clear day.


----------



## billd91

MarkB said:


> And, of course, two people looking out of windows in two different places might get different results. The one in an overcast area will see a different colour than the one on a clear day.



And then there’s partly cloudy ambiguity. “Well, it looks kinda blue-gray.”


----------



## Ryujin

And then there's the debate about confusing one thing (sky) with a feature of that thing (clouds).


----------



## MarkB

Ryujin said:


> And then there's the debate about confusing one thing (sky) with a feature of that thing (clouds).



Can't see the sky for the clouds. All too often the case here in England.


----------



## Hussar

Really, the conspiracy stuff has been bubbling up for about a decade now.  Remember when we had conspiracies about the US president's nationality?  People actually believe that.  How many investigations of Hillary Clinton that turn up nothing and we still get sizable numbers of "Lock Her Up" and "I just don't trust her" even today.  Anti-vaxxing that is based on science that has been long debunked.  

Thing is, it doesn't matter how much proof you bring to the table. It doesn't matter how rational your arguments are.  People are predisposed to believing stuff and poking holes in that is like trying to stick pins in concrete.  

We've had decades of the erosion of public trust in science, expertise has been treated as clueless elitism.  And this has been going on since the 80's.  It's not really surprising, in hindsight, to see how much of an impact this has had.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Really, the conspiracy stuff has been bubbling up for about a decade now.  Remember when we had conspiracies about the US president's nationality?  People actually believe that.  How many investigations of Hillary Clinton that turn up nothing and we still get sizable numbers of "Lock Her Up" and "I just don't trust her" even today.  Anti-vaxxing that is based on science that has been long debunked.
> 
> Thing is, it doesn't matter how much proof you bring to the table. It doesn't matter how rational your arguments are.  People are predisposed to believing stuff and poking holes in that is like trying to stick pins in concrete.
> 
> We've had decades of the erosion of public trust in science, expertise has been treated as clueless elitism.  And this has been going on since the 80's.  It's not really surprising, in hindsight, to see how much of an impact this has had.




 It's the interwebs. Basically you can't use facts on people's beliefs. In extreme cases even if they can see what's going on with their own eyes. 

 Getting that South African and English variety in qurantine now.

Covid-19: UK variant raises risk of community transmission - Baker

  As expected. Still using the Covid app but we're basically role playing the old normal for the most part.

 Trying to talk the family into trying something new for the camping trip. No tourists as such.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Remember when we had conspiracies about the US president's nationality? People actually believe that.




Some do, and others don't.

You cannot awaken someone who is not asleep - a great many knew full well that it was false, but repeated the narrative because it served their purposes.  Repeating that narrative means that most normal folks feel the need to dispute the facts.  But the person knows it is a lie, so the facts were not relevant, making it largely invulnerable armor.  

You cannot reason a person out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - the people who did believe that, despite evidence, are holding that position because it resonates with their fears or preferred worldview.  You cannot address their position without approaching the emotional underpinnings.  And you generally cannot do that with a stranger.


----------



## Garthanos

The foundations of science fear ummm never mind it branches out of what polite company wants to discuss/cover.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> Some do, and others don't.
> 
> You cannot awaken someone who is not asleep - a great many knew full well that it was false, but repeated the narrative because it served their purposes.  Repeating that narrative means that most normal folks feel the need to dispute the facts.  But the person knows it is a lie, so the facts were not relevant, making it largely invulnerable armor.
> 
> You cannot reason a person out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - the people who did believe that, despite evidence, are holding that position because it resonates with their fears or preferred worldview.  You cannot address their position without approaching the emotional underpinnings.  And you generally cannot do that with a stranger.



this is pretty much a viral infection of the mind.


----------



## Imaculata

Bit of a rough start of the week for me. Got called at 2 in the middle of the night. Whenever you get a call like that, it can't be good news, and it wasn't. My dad had been rushed to the hospital and had to under go immediate surgery for a cerebral haemorrhage (bleeding in the brain). Apparently he was able to call the emergency number, so they got to him in time. Several horrible hours later me and my sister got word that the operation was a success.

Due to Corona however, visiting someone in the hospital is a bit different now. Only 1 visitor is allowed at a time, and you must be in good health (no cough) and be wearing a mask obviously. Due to all the hospitals being overloaded with covid patients now, he had to be relocated to a hospital in a different city, when seconds can be a matter of life and death. The hospitals also have to move entire departments around, just to keep covid patients separated. 

I think I mentioned a while ago how covid can cause deaths among regular patients simply due to delays. I never thought I'd be thrown into just that kind of situation with a member of my family.

He is doing well though, so that's a relief. They got to him in time, and immediately got him into surgery. The hospital is specialized in neuro surgery, so that's a blessing.


----------



## Hussar

Oh my god @Imaculata .  That's brutal.  I hope that everything continues to go well.  All the best, kindest thoughts for you and yours.


----------



## Hussar

Well, it appears that the other shoe has finally dropped in Japan.  Skyrocketing infection rates, hospitals heading to being overwhelmed.  This is what everyone has been bracing for for the past year.  Here's to hoping.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Well, it appears that the other shoe has finally dropped in Japan.  Skyrocketing infection rates, hospitals heading to being overwhelmed.  This is what everyone has been bracing for for the past year.  Here's to hoping.




The new, more infectious strain first seen in the UK?


----------



## Eltab

Imaculata said:


> Bit of a rough start of the week for me. Got called at 2 in the middle of the night. Whenever you get a call like that, it can't be good news, and it wasn't. My dad had been rushed to the hospital and had to under go immediate surgery for a cerebral haemorrhage (bleeding in the brain). Apparently he was able to call the emergency number, so they got to him in time. Several horrible hours later me and my sister got word that the operation was a success.
> 
> Due to Corona however, visiting someone in the hospital is a bit different now. Only 1 visitor is allowed at a time, and you must be in good health (no cough) and be wearing a mask obviously. Due to all the hospitals being overloaded with covid patients now, he had to be relocated to a hospital in a different city, when second can be a matter of life and death. The hospitals also have to move entire departments around, just to keep covid patients separated.
> 
> I think I mentioned a while ago how covid can cause deaths among regular patients simply due to delays. I never thought I'd be thrown into just that kind of situation with a member of my family.
> 
> He is doing well though, so that's a relief. They got to him in time, and immediately got him into surgery. The hospital is specialized in neuro surgery, so that's a blessing.



I really want to give this post multiple emojis, ending with a thumbs-up.

Hope your dad recovers soon.


----------



## Garthanos

Most recent articles I seen indicate they have found evidence the vaccines will work with at least one of the
new strains.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Tangential to the news about the pandemic, Moderna is trying to develop vaccines for Nipah, HIV and the seasonal flu using the mRNA technique.









						Moderna is developing three new mRNA-based vaccines for seasonal flu, HIV and Nipah virus
					

Moderna, the biotech company behind one of the two mRNA-based vaccines currently being rolled out globally to stem the tide of COVID-19, has announced that it will pursue development programs around three new vaccine candidates in 2021.  Moderna's development and clinical trial of its COVID-19...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> The new, more infectious strain first seen in the UK?



Ours apparently came from Brazil.  But, no, it's more the fact that the government wanted business to get back into swing, brought out some travel incentives for domestic travel, and it blew up in their faces.  They're reading the emergency powers acts for most of the country now.  Not that that holds a lot of power in Japan - they can ask politely for people to stay home and that's about as far as it goes.  Some prefectures are offering monetary incentives to businesses to close early.  Nothing anywhere near as draconian as what we're seeing out of Canada right now.

And, yup, it can get strange:








						Husband on leash breached Quebec's Covid curfew
					

Canadian police fined the couple, who were trying to exploit curfew rules that allow dog-walking.




					ca.news.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Ours apparently came from Brazil.  But, no, it's more the fact that the government wanted business to get back into swing, brought out some travel incentives for domestic travel, and it blew up in their faces.




Oof.  My sympathies and empathy.  My state, despite having had some of the worst initial outbreak, seemed to get a handle on it and now... we do not.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

An article published in the journal Science posits that- once enough adults have been exposed to C19 either via infection or vaccination- the virus will be endemic but ultimately no more problematic than its cold-causing cousins.  They predict that it will be more like childhood diseases than a world stopper.









						The Future of the Coronavirus? An Annoying Childhood Infection
					

As millions are inoculated against the coronavirus, and the pandemic's end finally seems to glimmer into view, scientists are envisioning what a postvaccine world might look like -- and what they see is comforting.The coronavirus is here to stay, but once most adults are immune -- following...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> An article published in the journal Science posits that- once enough adults have been exposed to C19 either via infection or vaccination- the virus will be endemic but ultimately no more problematic than its cold-causing cousins.  They predict that it will be more like childhood diseases than a world stopper.




That posit seems based on the idea that we develop very long lasting immunity from either having it or vaccination.  That'd be a great thing, but I don't think it is supported by data yet.


----------



## Janx

Just learned that one of my friends has it (from up Nort, so no direct risk, though he was gonna ship me something...)

He picked it up from one of his co-workers.  Now 3/4 of them tested positive, and the one that didn't is running a 104 temperature (meaning, he's just bad at taking tests).  That's the entire work team, so nothing is getting repaired for  two weeks.  MN says if you don't have a temp after 2 week quarrantine you can go back to work (sounds dumb, why not make them take a test again).

The good news for my friend is he says it's pretty mild, a cough (i heard it).  He feels about 85%. He said the other guys seem to have it worse. He's ambulatory and able to play his new x-box (staying quarantined).

Wash your hands
Wear a mask
keep your co-workers away with a 6 foot pipe


----------



## MarkB

A friend of mine had an acute enough case that he was admitted to hospital last week. He's back home now, but as a result of the strain placed on his pancreas, he now has type 1 diabetes. There's hope that as he more fully recovers it may reduce to type 2.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> That posit seems based on the idea that we develop very long lasting immunity from either having it or vaccination.  That'd be a great thing, but I don't think it is supported by data yet.



It certainly seems to.  Either that, or there’s an assumption that there would be an ongoing annual vaccination program, a la the seasonal flu.

Either way, I’m hoping the paper itself contains a bit more evidence.


----------



## moriantumr

MarkB said:


> A friend of mine had an acute enough case that he was admitted to hospital last week. He's back home now, but as a result of the strain placed on his pancreas, he now has type 1 diabetes. There's hope that as he more fully recovers it may reduce to type 2.




I hope your friend does get better. Diabetes does not really downgrade from type 1 as that means he no longer produces insulin. Type 2 may vary in how bad it is depending on various factors, but it mostly means that they do not respond to insulin as well as they would normally.


----------



## Umbran

moriantumr said:


> I hope your friend does get better. Diabetes does not really downgrade from type 1 as that means he no longer produces insulin.




Yes, but if that happens because of some other type of disease or stress, sometimes it can start doing so again.  So, maybe some hope.


----------



## Umbran

My Congressional Representative is having a phone-based town hall meeting tonight about covid policy and vaccinations.  I'll be dialing in to hear what's going on.


----------



## Umbran

Umbran said:


> My Congressional Representative is having a phone-based town hall meeting tonight about covid policy and vaccinations.  I'll be dialing in to hear what's going on.




The call was mostly to address vaccine efficacy and safety.  Nothing monumental.


----------



## JEB

Pretty good explanation of how you could get the vaccine, but still potentially become an asymptomatic spreader: Can vaccinated people still spread COVID-19? Here’s what we know.

Seems to me that if you follow both shots with an antibody test, and you're producing both necessary types, you're in the clear. (And even if you don't have both antibodies, better to wind up with an asymptomatic case than a symptomatic one. Just means you can't visit Grandma until she gets her vaccination, too.)


----------



## BookTenTiger

I'm experiencing an interesting intersection of policy and politic (lower-case p, I promise) in my school district. I work in a _very _wealthy county, but a few schools (like the one I work in) have a much higher proportion of low-income families than others. In a meeting about vaccines, the superintendent of schools for our county said they would be rolling out vaccines for teachers and staff in alphabetical order by school name. You can tell they picked this in order to be "fair." But there's a big difference between fair and equitable!

One of my coworkers spoke up in a meeting with the superintendent of schools and challenged this, saying it would be better to find another factor (say, number of students with who receive free-or-reduced lunch) to prioritize schools by. After all, we know from multiple studies that low-income families are more likely to live in generational housing, work front-line jobs, and be more susceptible to catching and spreading COVID. Apparently the superintendent was, as they say, shook.

We will see what happens! But I am so proud of my coworker for speaking out. Theoretically I will start getting the vaccine this month or next.


----------



## Imaculata

My father is still holding on for dear life, as a sudden lung infection caused serious complications (no covid though). He seems stable for the moment, but every night I fear I'll receive a call from the hospital.

He's been moved back to the Intensive Care, which is overloaded with work due to covid. I can tell by the looks on people's faces that everyone is really tired and being pushed to the breaking point. I feel for them.

The dreadful handling of the covid response has just caused the fall of the current Dutch cabinet, among other things. It is just a complete embarassment, and I hope a lot of law suits follow.


----------



## Deset Gled

BookTenTiger said:


> In a meeting about vaccines, the superintendent of schools for our county said they would be rolling out vaccines for teachers and staff in alphabetical order by school name. You can tell they picked this in order to be "fair." But there's a big difference between fair and equitable!




I see nothing fair or equitable in using alphabetical order for something like this.  Good for your coworker for challenging it.  Extra points for doing it in a meeting, double points if the meeting was public.


----------



## Umbran

BookTenTiger said:


> You can tell they picked this in order to be "fair." But there's a big difference between fair and equitable!




Yeah.  Unfortunately, a lot of people aren't ready for equitable :/



BookTenTiger said:


> One of my coworkers spoke up in a meeting with the superintendent of schools and challenged this, saying it would be better to find another factor (say, number of students with who receive free-or-reduced lunch) to prioritize schools by. After all, we know from multiple studies that low-income families are more likely to live in generational housing, work front-line jobs, and be more susceptible to catching and spreading COVID. Apparently the superintendent was, as they say, shook.




That took some bravery.  Bully and good luck to them!


----------



## Zardnaar

Deset Gled said:


> I see nothing fair or equitable in using alphabetical order for something like this.  Good for your coworker for challenging it.  Extra points for doing it in a meeting, double points if the meeting was public.




 It avoids resentment I suppose. 

 The rich schools get it it's unfair, poor schools get it the rich gets salty. 

 Is it strictly fair? No but it shouldn't upset to many people (them vs us).


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Is it strictly fair? No but it shouldn't upset to many people (them vs us).




If risk isn't randomly distributed, but the vaccine is, that means a bunch of folks who don't need it as badly will get it, and a bunch of folks who really ought to have it, won't.

Getting sick when it could be prevented should upset folks.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> If risk isn't randomly distributed, but the vaccine is, that means a bunch of folks who don't need it as badly will get it, and a bunch of folks who really ought to have it, won't.
> 
> Getting sick when it could be prevented should upset folks.




 You're never gonna be able to have a perfect/fair system and it will have to be to reality. 

  Personally I figured frontline health people should get it first but some countries  priorities are old people. 

  Prioritizing it on socio economic status is going to lead to more us vs them type stuff so alphabetically while not perfect is fair enough IMHO in the scenario outlined by the poster.

It avoids the I got it and you didn't effect in the same school and I guess it's easier to vaccinate schools all at once school by school.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Zardnaar said:


> You're never gonna be able to have a perfect/fair system and it will have to be to reality.
> 
> Personally I figured frontline health people should get it first but some countries  priorities are old people.
> 
> Prioritizing it on socio economic status is going to lead to more us vs them type stuff so alphabetically while not perfect is fair enough IMHO in the scenario outlined by the poster.



Man I've just got to disagree with you very strongly. You are prioritizing "not angering people" over helping people who need it most. In any policy discussion, equity means helping those who need the most help first.


----------



## Zardnaar

BookTenTiger said:


> Man I've just got to disagree with you very strongly. You are prioritizing "not angering people" over helping people who need it most. In any policy discussion, equity means helping those who need the most help first.




 In theory I agree with you but I do live in a country where schools get ranked by deciles and access to things like student allowances are also income based. 

 It's quicker and easier to do alphabetically I suppose than try and work out who gets what and people get inventive with work around. 

 So yeah pragmatic reasons as well. Rock on up to school vaccinate move onto next one.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Zardnaar said:


> In theory I agree with you but I do live in a country where schools get ranked by deciles and access to things like student allowances are also income based.
> 
> It's quicker and easier to do alphabetically I suppose than try and work out who gets what and people get inventive with work around.
> 
> So yeah pragmatic reasons as well. Rock on up to school vaccinate move onto next one.



Again I've got to disagree. The county has all the data on the schools, it takes as much time to list them alphabetically as to list them by the number of students receiving free or reduced price lunch (the usual indicator of low-income households). So it doesn't take any more time, it just takes a conscience.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> You're never gonna be able to have a perfect/fair system and it will have to be to reality.




Nobody's asking for perfection.  

And, not being able to reach perfection is no excuse for not trying to be better.  Using an arbitrary assignment scheme, when some folks are demonstrably at significantly higher risk, is shabby.



Zardnaar said:


> It avoids the I got it and you didn't effect in the same school




Please go back and read again - we are talking about vaccinating school _faculty and staff_, not the students.


----------



## Zardnaar

BookTenTiger said:


> Again I've got to disagree. The county has all the data on the schools, it takes as much time to list them alphabetically as to list them by the number of students receiving free or reduced price lunch (the usual indicator of low-income households). So it doesn't take any more time, it just takes a conscience.




 I've already seen arguements on other forums if people complaining about who gets what and when. 

 Alphabetically is fair in terms of who gets what and when without anyone getting to salty about it. 

 Unless your name start with Z but who cares about them.?


----------



## Umbran

BookTenTiger said:


> So it doesn't take any more time, it just takes a conscience.



It takes a conscience, some forethought, and some bravery and willingness to tell entitled folks to please wait their turn.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Alphabetically is fair...




As was noted - "fair" is not equivalent to "equitable".  Or even "smart".


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Nobody's asking for perfection.
> 
> And, not being able to reach perfection is no excuse for not trying to be better.  Using an arbitrary assignment scheme, when some folks are demonstrably at significantly higher risk, is shabby.
> 
> 
> 
> Please go back and read again - we are talking about vaccinating school _faculty and staff_, not the students.




  I would argue everyone being somewhat happy with a certain amount of buy in is required. 

 At the end if the day you need someone saying here's what we're doing and how we're doing it in a way people will understand and not get to salty about.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> As was noted - "fair" is not equivalent to "equitable".  Or even "smart".




 It's smart because people will understand it.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Zardnaar said:


> I've already seen arguements on other forums if people complaining about who gets what and when.
> 
> Alphabetically is fair in terms of who gets what and when without anyone getting to salty about it.
> 
> Unless your name start with Z but who cares about them.?



Cool.

So I'm not just someone on a forum, I am a teacher in a school working with students from low income households in a county that is debating how to distribute its vaccines to the teachers and staff members of the schools.

I hope you weigh my experience in this discussion a little more strongly than some people complaining on other forums.

Fair is not the same thing as equitable. If two houses are on fire, and one has a family trapped inside, which one should firefighters approach first?

If two schools need to vaccinate their staff, and one school has a larger portion of low-income families more at risk of the virus, which school should receive vaccines first?


----------



## Zardnaar

BookTenTiger said:


> Cool.
> 
> So I'm not just someone on a forum, I am a teacher in a school working with students from low income households in a county that is debating how to distribute its vaccines to the teachers and staff members of the schools.
> 
> I hope you weigh my experience in this discussion a little more strongly than some people complaining on other forums.
> 
> Fair is not the same thing as equitable. If two houses are on fire, and one has a family trapped inside, which one should firefighters approach first?
> 
> If two schools need to vaccinate their staff, and one school has a larger portion of low-income families more at risk of the virus, which school should receive vaccines first?




 In America? 

 Isn't a lot of problems there over who gets what and how? 

 This sidesteps that, it's not a country big on equitable it seems. 

 Ideal world you are right, lmk next time you wake up in an ideal world.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Zardnaar said:


> In America?
> 
> Isn't a lot of problems there over who gets what and how?
> 
> This sidesteps that, it's not a country big on equitable it seems.
> 
> Ideal world you are right, lmk next time you wake up in an ideal world.



Yes and I am pointing out a situation in which my co-workers are attempting to make the world a little more equitable and ideal.

Dude, I don't know what point you are trying to make here, but this really seems like the time when you should be listening and asking questions instead of asserting your opinion on a situation you are obviously not familiar with.


----------



## Zardnaar

BookTenTiger said:


> Yes and I am pointing out a situation in which my co-workers are attempting to make the world a little more equitable and ideal.
> 
> Dude, I don't know what point you are trying to make here, but this really seems like the time when you should be listening and asking questions instead of asserting your opinion on a situation you are obviously not familiar with.




 I thought alphabetically was a brilliant system relative to how they've been doing things so far. 

 I'm surprised they're not charging to line up, the line runs past a cheeseburger stand and they have rules saying you can't line up and/or they make it hard to line up. 

  Not cynical at all with the USA just when you think they can't do any worse they manage to surprise you.


----------



## Thomas Shey

BookTenTiger said:


> Man I've just got to disagree with you very strongly. You are prioritizing "not angering people" over helping people who need it most. In any policy discussion, equity means helping those who need the most help first.




That may be, but if you cook up resentment enough that those resenting how you're doing it throw blocks into process, you can end up just meaning even _less_ of the people who need it get it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> That may be, but if you cook up resentment enough that those resenting how you're doing it throw blocks into process, you can end up just meaning even _less_ of the people who need it get it.




 Better way of saying what I was thinking.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> It takes a conscience, some forethought, and some bravery and willingness to tell entitled folks to please wait their turn.




More to the point, it requires that said entitled folks don't have enough ability to make a stink about it that it causes active harm.  Which particularly when it comes to how things are managed  at _schools_ is a big "if".


----------



## BookTenTiger

Thomas Shey said:


> That may be, but if you cook up resentment enough that those resenting how you're doing it throw blocks into process, you can end up just meaning even _less_ of the people who need it get it.



So are you saying we should prioritize those with means over those who need the most help so that those with means are placated and won't get in the way?

I think it's a much better idea to convince those in charge (say, the Superintendent of Schools) to create equitable policies since, you know, it's their job to lead and communicate policy.

Which is what we are doing here.


----------



## Zardnaar

BookTenTiger said:


> So are you saying we should prioritize those with means over those who need the most help so that those with means are placated and won't get in the way?
> 
> I think it's a much better idea to convince those in charge (say, the Superintendent of Schools) to create equitable policies since, you know, it's their job to lead and communicate policy.
> 
> Which is what we are doing here.




 For me it's vaccinating as many people as possible as fast as possible. 

 How that is done I'm not to fussed on the details.


----------



## Thomas Shey

BookTenTiger said:


> So are you saying we should prioritize those with means over those who need the most help so that those with means are placated and won't get in the way?




How in the world did you get that from what I said?  What I said was that there's reasons to use a neutral distribution method that isn't ideal in terms of getting the vaccine to the people who need it most if it also doesn't build resentment in those who can interfere with the process.  How you read that as my saying what you say above, I don't even vaguely understand unless you're trying to set me up as a villain here.



BookTenTiger said:


> I think it's a much better idea to convince those in charge (say, the Superintendent of Schools) to create equitable policies since, you know, it's their job to lead and communicate policy.
> 
> Which is what we are doing here.




And I'm saying that people like that are often particularly vulnerable to pressure because of how they're chosen and who has the ability to compel them in a lot of places.  If that's not true in the schools you're used to, you're lucky IME.


----------



## briggart

BookTenTiger said:


> So are you saying we should prioritize those with means over those who need the most help so that those with means are placated and won't get in the way?
> 
> I think it's a much better idea to convince those in charge (say, the Superintendent of Schools) to create equitable policies since, you know, it's their job to lead and communicate policy.
> 
> Which is what we are doing here.



From a pragmatic point of view, what is the timescale for vaccinating all the school staff in the area? If it's a matter of few days (I guess we are talking about few thousand people) I don't think it makes a significant difference and depending on the logistics of your vaccination program  (e.g. vaccine and medical staff are sent to the schools, instead of having vaccination centers where people need to show up on a given day to get a shot) a change in schedule could lead to delays.


----------



## GreyLord

Personally I think it's all screwed up how they are handing it out.

In MY OPINION...

It should be delivered based UPON RISK FACTORS.

The more at risk someone is of dying from the Disease should determine what priority they have of getting it AFTER the medical personnel.

If you have a 20 year old grocery clerk, in theory, they may get the vaccine LONG before a 63 year old with COP-D and a heart condition...

Or if you have a 22 year old teacher they may get the vaccine LONG before a 64 year old with diabetes and high blood pressure.

Etc...etc...etc.

Which makes absolutely NO SENSE to me.

ANOTHER Factor though...how about those who refused to wear a mask, regardless of risk factor. 

You could have that 63 year old above who refused to ever wear a mask, social distance, and somehow by the grace of all has not yet gotten the virus...

Why should they be rushed to get it when perhaps a 50  year old who has HIV but has isolated for MONTHS now, worn a mask and did their best to social distance when they had to go out (to get groceries for example) will have to wait?

There's a bunch of how we are rolling it out that does not make a ton of sense if we are talking about fair and equitable here...

But I suppose there are smarter minds than I that are working how to distribute it in the best manner.


----------



## Eltab

Compare NY's vaccination plan to say TX's: too many 'who goes first' factors do not create equitable, they create delay.  We already have too much "see how much I care!?  why don't you care?" going on (see mask debate) and it is not helpful.

 if we are going school-by-school, then alphabetical -or- pull names from a hat -or- roll dice -or- have all the Gym teachers run a 100 yd dash.  If you want to get deeper into individual risk factors then you have to schedule individual not group appointments.

Do not turn the Perfect into the enemy of the Good.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Ew ew ew, I am done with this conversation and regret bringing it up here. I will reserve my energy and word for fighting racism in my county's school system. For those who have spoken against distributing vaccines to schools with the most vulnerable populations, I hope you do some more thinking about what is fair and what is equitable. If you have questions feel free to DM me, but I am done here.


----------



## Umbran

BookTenTiger said:


> So are you saying we should prioritize those with means over those who need the most help so that those with means are placated and won't get in the way?




I don't think he's saying we _should_ do that.  Merely that sometimes standing up to powerful people can cost you your job.  It takes bravery to risk losing your job in the middle of a pandemic.

Standing up to them is the right thing to do, but it can be hard.

Edit:  I just realized something else - that administrator could now be between a rock and a hard place, which would explain being "shook" as you said.  Rich parents with influence can cost them their job, but a clear notice that some attempt at equitable distribution is required might actually signal legal responsibility - they or the district may have some legal risk now.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> I don't think he's saying we _should_ do that.  Merely that sometimes standing up to powerful people can cost you your job.  It takes bravery to risk losing your job in the middle of a pandemic.
> 
> Standing up to them is the right thing to do, but it can be hard.




Its not only that, but that it can, in practice, produce a perverse result where those who need it most actually get it _later_, because things get bogged down by administrative or legal challenges.  Its absolutely not beyond those working of privilege to do that sort of thing if they they get it in their head that they're actively being pushed to the back of the queue.

I've never even suggested that "alphabetically" or "by lottery" is the best way to do it, but I think you want to make sure you don't get worse outcomes while trying to get better, and at least in some school districts I'm familiar with in the U.S. I can absolutely believe that could be what would happen here.  If time wasn't an issue I'd be much more prone to suggesting fighting it out.



Umbran said:


> Edit:  I just realized something else - that administrator could now be between a rock and a hard place, which would explain being "shook" as you said.  Rich parents with influence can cost them their job, but a clear notice that some attempt at equitable distribution is required might actually signal legal responsibility - they or the district may have some legal risk now.




Well, that's the damned if you do, damned if you don't part, though at least now that he's been challenged on it he might have some legal/political ammunition for doing it the more appropriate way.


----------



## Ryujin

In the city where I live, there is an area that has disproportionately high infection rates. This area has an odd dichotomy as it's a newer housing development with million dollar+ homes, but a high concentration of lower paid "essential" workers. This town has a long tradition of being a place where new immigrants settle and we have a significantly higher South Asian population than Caucasian population. The homes that I mentioned are frequently multi-generational. You can have three or four generations of family living under the same roof, getting by with many people paying into the mortgage. In this way the families are able to completely pay off a house in relatively short order and then purchase another, thereby getting a leg-up in life. Because of this, whole households are easily exposed to Covid-19.

I would (and do) heartily endorse people in this area being put at the front of the line, even over people like myself who have several possible comorbidities. I can isolate, for the most part, with very limited need to leave my home for supplies, or the rare occasion that I am required to work on-site. They don't have that luxury and are potentially exposed on a daily basis, in turn exposing their loved ones (including parents too old to work). It just seems logical to me.


----------



## Deset Gled

Zardnaar said:


> Alphabetically is fair in terms of who gets what and when without anyone getting to salty about it.





Zardnaar said:


> It's smart because people will understand it.




It's smart because the psuedo-randomness makes people think it's fair, when it's trivial for those in charge to manipulate the outcome.

Choosing any system like this gives the appearance of randomness.  But the outcome of any such system is 100% known ahead of time.  Thus, those in power can choose which "random" system they want, and effectively choose the results.  In D&D terms, it would be like letting your wizard roll 5d6 for each of their fireballs at the start of the session, letting them know how many hit points the monster has, then allowing them to choose which of their 5d6 rolls they want to use against each enemy.  Sure, there was a random dice roll at some point, but the player will always pick the fireball with the exact damage the need to win each encounter, easily manipulating to get outcome they want.

In the situation BTT gives, the superintendent could have chosen by alphabetical name of the school, alphabetical name of the principal, by age of the building, distance from the center of town, or any other system to _appear _random, but at the end of the day they were knowingly choosing which schools got the vaccine first and which got it last. There was nothing actually random about the order. Anyone who thought it was fair because of randomness was being played, and that's well before you even get into the discussion of whether or not random distribution is actually equitable.


----------



## Zardnaar

Deset Gled said:


> It's smart because the psuedo-randomness makes people think it's fair, when it's trivial for those in charge to manipulate the outcome.
> 
> Choosing any system like this gives the appearance of randomness.  But the outcome of any such system is 100% known ahead of time.  Thus, those in power can choose which "random" system they want, and effectively choose the results.  In D&D terms, it would be like letting your wizard roll 5d6 for each of their fireballs at the start of the session, letting them know how many hit points the monster has, then allowing them to choose which of their 5d6 rolls they want to use against each enemy.  Sure, there was a random dice roll at some point, but the player will always pick the fireball with the exact damage the need to win each encounter, easily manipulating to get outcome they want.
> 
> In the situation BTT gives, the superintendent could have chosen by alphabetical name of the school, alphabetical name of the principal, by age of the building, distance from the center of town, or any other system to _appear _random, but at the end of the day they were knowingly choosing which schools got the vaccine first and which got it last. There was nothing actually random about the order. Anyone who thought it was fair because of randomness was being played, and that's well before you even get into the discussion of whether or not random distribution is actually equitable.




 It's not random but it simple enough for people to understand and know when they get it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

In some research pulling together an array of things noted before, a group at Leicester University along with the ONS has noted that approximately 1/3 of all C19 patients have a return visit to the hospital within 5 months, and 1/8 of those who do, die.  Those deaths are related to known C19 induced side effects like organ damage and diabetes.  With the current standard for cutting off point recording Covid deaths being 28 days after a positive test, this may indicate C19 has a mortality rate that is higher than previously thought.  

Until further information is gathered, the takeaway is probably that you _really_ need to monitor your health closely after a bout of Covid.








						Almost a third of recovered Covid patients return to hospital in five months and one in eight die
					

Almost a third of recovered Covid patients will end up back in hospital within five months and one in eight will die, alarming new figures have shown. Research by Leicester University and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found there is a devastating long-term toll on survivors of severe...




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Deset Gled

Zardnaar said:


> It's not random but it simple enough for people to understand and know when they get it.




Were discussing the availability of medical supplies to low income schools.  You don't care if it's fair, equitable, or random as long as it's simple enough for them to understand? 

That's deplorable.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> That's deplorable.




I'm not really a fan of plans that disregard real risks, but... can we keep the rhetoric a little less volatile, please and thanks.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

While I agree that it’s not the best plan, there is something to be said for a course of action that is _perceived _to be fair in its simplicity if it avoids the real-world consequences of politicization and non-compliance.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> there is something to be said for a course of action that is _perceived _to be fair in its simplicity if it avoids the real-world consequences of politicization and non-compliance.




Yeah, but it doesn't seem to have managed the goal.

The problem in this instance being, as has already been noted, that an impartial process, when imposed upon an inequitable starting situation, has _predictably_ inequitable results.

Since that result is predictable, that means the plan _ISN'T_ actually impartial.  The inequitable result is _chosen_ implicitly, which is not impartial at all.


----------



## Umbran

A friend of mine, the owner of one of the area's FLGSs, is now in the hospital with covid-19.

Wear your damn masks.  Keep distant.  Don't make people sick.  Don't die.


----------



## Deset Gled

Deleted.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Yeah, but it doesn't seem to have managed the goal.
> 
> The problem in this instance being, as has already been noted, that an impartial process, when imposed upon an inequitable starting situation, has _predictably_ inequitable results.
> 
> Since that result is predictable, that means the plan _ISN'T_ actually impartial.  The inequitable result is _chosen_ implicitly, which is not impartial at all.



I was thinking more of the perceptions of those who have been a consistent thorn in the side of anti-Covid efforts thus far.  You know, the Dunning-Kreuger clique.

Even if the plan has predictable inequities, it still may be more effective than a fairer plan if it gets the nonconformists to conform.


----------



## Zardnaar

Deset Gled said:


> Were discussing the availability of medical supplies to low income schools.  You don't care if it's fair, equitable, or random as long as it's simple enough for them to understand?
> 
> That's deplorable.




 I'm for whatever works. It's a plan that's an improvement over USA has been doing. 

 I learnt at a young age the world isn't fair or equitable and I live in a country that has better social security net.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Yeah, but it doesn't seem to have managed the goal.
> 
> The problem in this instance being, as has already been noted, that an impartial process, when imposed upon an inequitable starting situation, has _predictably_ inequitable results.
> 
> Since that result is predictable, that means the plan _ISN'T_ actually impartial.  The inequitable result is _chosen_ implicitly, which is not impartial at all.



People miss that...  very badly


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> I'm for whatever works.




Well, that's the question, isn't it.  Does it work?  I mean, if the plan doesn't target those with the most risk, does it work?  



Zardnaar said:


> I learnt at a young age the world isn't fair or equitable and I live in a country that has better social security net.




So, "The world isn't fair, you guys are particularly bad at it, and _STOP TRYING TO DO BETTER_."

Maybe your advice on the matter isn't very good.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> So, "The world isn't fair, you guys are particularly bad at it, and _STOP TRYING TO DO BETTER_."



For the school superintendant, what is Job One?
He doesn't have the resources to fix the past history of wrongs done. 
He does have the resources to get his staff vaccinated.

When the schools can re-open, _those underprivileged children can get the education that will let them break the cycle_.

This event - arrival of a vaccine for the disease that turned the world upside down - is supposed to be a happy time and a step into a more-hopeful future.  Why are you so determined to make it into a/another point of grudge and suspicion and resentment?


----------



## Garthanos

Eltab said:


> When the schools can re-open, _those underprivileged children can get the education that will let them break the cycle_.



If they and their loved ones are not being killed first... by the inequity some people want to ignore.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> If they and their loved ones are not being killed first... by the inequity some people want to ignore.




Not so much ignore but getting extra money is fiendishly hard in the USA so deficit spending is usually used.

 Not the way I would run a country but ideal vs reality is a thing.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Not so much ignore but getting extra money is fiendishly hard in the USA so deficit spending is usually used.



In this case we are talking about where to allocate vaccines first within areas with individually trackable case rates actually... and it can be done as applying the bandage directed at the wound it does not need to be couched in the other economic factors and such which caused this to be the case.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> In this case we are talking about where to allocate vaccines first within areas with individually trackable case rates actually... and it can be done as applying the bandage directed at the wound it does not need to be couched in the other economic factors and such which caused this to be the case.




 The powers that be made a plan. Not best plan but it's a plan. 

  More jabby jabby.


----------



## Eltab

Garthanos said:


> If they and their loved ones are not being killed first... by the inequity some people want to ignore.



The school system is not being given enough vaccines to vaccinate the students.
The school system is not being given enough vaccines to vaccinate the students' families.
The school system has been given enough vaccines to vaccinate the school staff.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> The school system has been given enough vaccines to vaccinate the school staff.




Probably not.  The school system probably hasn't been given vaccines at all.  School systems in the US don't generally have staff trained in administering vaccines.  They don't generally have the freezers required to store these vaccines either. 

By the sound of it, the school system is probably being told that a vaccine clinic will be coming through schools in some order, or the staff must be organized to come through some other facility.


----------



## moriantumr

My wife, a high school teacher, was informed that they could sign up for the vaccine, which they don’t have enough for all to receive. She would then have to travel 35 minutes to where they would give it to her, between 9 and 4, during a school day, which they are required to take a personal leave day to go and get a vaccine. Oh, and they will not guarantee that they would give the second injection.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Why are you so determined to make it into a/another point of grudge and suspicion and resentment?




I'm not.  

First, take the context - vaccine administration has been slow.  I'd be unsurprised to learn that may be weeks or months before they get through all the staff of the school system.  If it takes one weekend to go through all of them, then I retract my disagreement.  

I am noting that, given the bottlenecks in administering vaccines, the school system should be prioritizing the order in which their staff gets them - highest risk first. If this is, as you say, all about getting the schools back open for the kids, what I'm saying will get the schools of the kids most in need open sooner, with more of the teachers and staff healthy.  Doing this in a smart order is directly aligned with the educational mission.

Further, I note that using an alphabetical order is a fairly transparent indication that they aren't doing this.  The blatant lack of consideration from people whose job it is to consider these things is a problem.

And, let us repeat, this would have been _DIRT SIMPLE_.   It isn't like we are saying they need to start a multi-month research project.  The school system should already have the data, already makes decisions based on the same data.  They _already know_ which schools have more economically underprivileged kids.  If they don't, they are incompetent, and deserve jeers anyway. 

You folks seem to be arguing that the institution in charge of educating kids can be allowed to be stupid itself!


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Logistics and the allocation of scarce resources, not to mention public health in general, used to be something the United States was a leader at.

....while the rollout of a number of different vaccines, each with different protocols, would necessarily be difficult, watching how badly it has unfolded has been eye-opening.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Logistics and the allocation of scarce resources, not to mention public health in general, used to be something the United States was a leader at.




Oh, the expertise still exists.  We just didn't apply it.  My understanding is that the plans of the Pandemic Response Team had this sort of thing covered.  



Snarf Zagyg said:


> ...watching how badly it has unfolded has been eye-opening.




Yes - the lesson learned is that if you don't apply yourself, an exceptional past will stay in the past.


----------



## BookTenTiger

My mom got her first vaccine yesterday! I cannot wait for my family to get vaccinated, though my brother and his wife will probably be far lower down on the priority list. My brother and sister in law, niece and nephew, and mom and dad have all been bubbling, but I've been keeping myself out of the bubble to keep them safe (especially when my partner has been working with COVID patients). It has been emotionally difficult.

@Imaculata any updates on your dad? I've been thinking of you.


----------



## Imaculata

BookTenTiger said:


> @Imaculata any updates on your dad? I've been thinking of you.




They have lowered his medication, which should wake him up. But so far, that isn't happening. He still requires a lot of oxygen, which is also not a very good sign. They'll be making a CT scan of his lungs today. Tomorrow me and my sister will learn more after a long talk with the doctor. I am preparing myself for bad news. Your thoughts and worries however are appreciated.

Just a heads up for all you smokers out there. If you ever get a lung infection like my dad did, all those years of ruining your lungs will come to haunt you... as it has now with my dad.

Edit: It's not looking good for my dad. I don't think this tale is going to have a happy end.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This vaccination thing may take a while...








						All 4 nurses in a Kansas county's health department refused to give out COVID-19 vaccines
					

The health department administrator shared debunked vaccine misinformation as part of their reasoning.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## cmad1977

Imaculata said:


> They have lowered his medication, which should wake him up. But so far, that isn't happening. He still requires a lot of oxygen, which is also not a very good sign. They'll be making a CT scan of his lungs today. Tomorrow me and my sister will learn more after a long talk with the doctor. I am preparing myself for bad news. Your thoughts and worries however are appreciated.
> 
> Just a heads up for all you smokers out there. If you ever get a lung infection like my dad did, all those years of ruining your lungs will come to haunt you... as it has now with my dad.
> 
> Edit: It's not looking good for my dad. I don't think this tale is going to have a happy end.




I’m sorry you have to go through this.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Probably not.  The school system probably hasn't been given vaccines at all.  School systems in the US don't generally have staff trained in administering vaccines.  They don't generally have the freezers required to store these vaccines either.
> 
> By the sound of it, the school system is probably being told that a vaccine clinic will be coming through schools in some order, or the staff must be organized to come through some other facility.




In fact, the head of the Los Angeles County school system is trying to convince the state that they can administer vaccines (I gather they've had flu clinics before) and the nursing staff can watch for abreactions.  I don't know how true it is, but it doesn't seem self-evidently impossible, given pharmacies to a lot of that.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> You folks seem to be arguing that the institution in charge of educating kids can be allowed to be stupid itself!




My argument has been, simply put, that some of the structural forces at play damn near force them to be stupid on occasion, and this isn't the only place.  Schools are the ultimate example of organizations that are serving multiple conflicting masters.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Logistics and the allocation of scarce resources, not to mention public health in general, used to be something the United States was a leader at.
> 
> ....while the rollout of a number of different vaccines, each with different protocols, would necessarily be difficult, watching how badly it has unfolded has been eye-opening.




If we had anything resembling a standard protocol in play, it wouldn't be nearly as bad.  But we didn't.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Imaculata said:


> Just a heads up for all you smokers out there. If you ever get a lung infection like my dad did, all those years of ruining your lungs will come to haunt you... as it has now with my dad.




This was how it played out with my mother many years ago, too.


----------



## CleverNickName

I think we were just talking about this.
Covid vaccine: WHO warns of 'catastrophic moral failure'​(Source: BBC News)


----------



## Imaculata

Unfortunately my dad passed away this monday. Now we have to figure out how to hold a safe funeral during covid times...


----------



## Deset Gled

Imaculata said:


> Unfortunately my dad passed away this monday. Now we have to figure out how to hold a safe funeral during covid times...




Sorry for your loss.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Imaculata said:


> Unfortunately my dad passed away this monday. Now we have to figure out how to hold a safe funeral during covid times...



I'm so sorry to hear that Imaculata.


----------



## Eltab

Imaculata said:


> Unfortunately my dad passed away this monday. Now we have to figure out how to hold a safe funeral during covid times...



My condolences.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Sorry to hear about that Imaculata.  Good luck on finding a way to celebrate his life under these trying times.


----------



## Garthanos

I have missed a lot of celebrations of life. Including Weddings whose ceremonies were delayed. Stay safe everyone.


----------



## CleverNickName

I'm sorry, @Imaculata .  That's terrible news, and you have my condolences.
I lost my own dad back in 2008 after a years-long battle with cancer.


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> Unfortunately my dad passed away this monday. Now we have to figure out how to hold a safe funeral during covid times...




Sympathies and peace to you and yours.  That's rough.


----------



## ccs

Imaculata said:


> Unfortunately my dad passed away this monday. Now we have to figure out how to hold a safe funeral during covid times...



Many condolences.


----------



## Greg K

Imaculata said:


> Unfortunately my dad passed away this monday. Now we have to figure out how to hold a safe funeral during covid times...



My condolences to you and your family.


----------



## Greg K

Everyone, please take precautions. Yesterday, I was discharged to go home after having been admitted to the hospital on December 14 with Covid and spending two and a half  weeks in the hospital followed by nearly three weeks in a nursing home.

  The week prIor to admittance, it was initially thought that i had an upper respiratory infection,  because I took all the proper precautions and rarely left the house other than to buy food, walk the dog,  or attend medical appointmemts. It was only when I began running a fever while on antibiotics that Covid was suspected and I was given a Covid test. Three days later,  the same day I received my positive test results. I was rushed to the ER with Covid, pneumonia,  and acute respiratory failure with hypoxia.

    Several days after admittance, I learned that I had been on death's door and the doctors were unsure they could save me- covid and stress of my body fighting to survive caused other complications on top of the repiratory failure.

  Covid is serious.  Thankfully, I am still alive. Many have not been so lucky. Yet, despite being alive. I am  still on meds,  using a walker, and waiting for both temporary in home care and to see a specialist to find out if there is permanent damage to some organs (looking over the diagnoses and a med, I am unsure if I now also have a permanent condition that can lead to an over production of blood platelets).

   Please, take precautions and be safe


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Sounds like you’re slowly emerging from Hell.  Stay strong, and if you can, let us know how things are going fo you.  Your struggles may help someone else.


----------



## Dioltach

Doctors in the UK are recommending people use an oximeter three times a day to measure their oxygen levels. Apparently one of the big mysteries of COVID is that people's oxygen levels are dropping without them noticing until it's too late. Full article on the BBC: Covid: How a £20 gadget could save lives - BBC News


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dioltach said:


> Doctors in the UK are recommending people use an oximeter three times a day to measure their oxygen levels. Apparently one of the big mysteries of COVID is that people's oxygen levels are dropping without them noticing until it's too late. Full article on the BBC: Covid: How a £20 gadget could save lives - BBC News



I’m not surprised.  Humans are surprisingly durable. My father has had patients walk into his offices who were borderline cyanotic* who claimed they were “just fine”.


* not related to current events


----------



## Argyle King

It's interesting to hear/witness the wide variety of Covid effects.

I know some people who have died. I also know some people who said they barely noticed having it.


----------



## billd91

Dioltach said:


> Doctors in the UK are recommending people use an oximeter three times a day to measure their oxygen levels. Apparently one of the big mysteries of COVID is that people's oxygen levels are dropping without them noticing until it's too late. Full article on the BBC: Covid: How a £20 gadget could save lives - BBC News



Yes, this can be a challenging one because the body adapts. My wife had a health incident a number of years ago that was scary. She was dealing with some chronic anemia that pretty much cratered her hemoglobin levels - when she finally got that tested, the doctors noted the panic low result and called her in to the ED for a transfusion. She had no idea she was having so much trouble or at so much risk because the body can adapt and your feelings and perceptions adapt to the new, even if declining, normal as long as it is gradual enough. 
We're all just frogs in the slowly heating pot.


----------



## MoonSong

@Imaculata, I'm sorry for your loss. Hugs and prayers. I have lost two relatives to this bug, and they weren't as close as a father.

Good and bad news locally for me. Bad news, the number of contagions is so severe that the mayor has decreed all markets have to close, starting Monday. Honestly,  I'm not surprised. The number of people not wearing masks and even eating in the local market is staggering. I guess that's why we can't have nice things anymore. 

Good news? The Federal Government has finally opened the door for local Governments and businesses to import vaccines directly. This is good because 1) I can hope to get vaccinated this year, and 2) I'll have an option not to take the Cancino vaccine -which I have serious doubts about, but will likely end up being the one applied in mass by the Government because it is cheap. -, 3) There was a fear that they would use vaccines as a way to pressure people during the elections this year. I guess that they had to admit there was no way they would be able to pay for a hundred million vaccines and administer them efficiently.

Also there was a scare with my sister. Her immediate boss was diagnosed this week, but she is fine. Thankfully she is fine.


----------



## Imaculata

> I'll have an option not to take the Cancino vaccine -which I have serious doubts about, but will likely end up being the one applied in mass by the Government because it is cheap.




In Dutch we have a saying: "Goedkoop is duurkoop".

Which means (roughly translated) "Buying cheap is paying a high price". If you buy things on the cheap, you get what you paid for, and you may end up paying more in the end.


----------



## Umbran

In my state, they have opened up to all "Phase 1" vaccine recipients.  We don't have a hard start date, but we are expected to go to Phase 2 in early February.


----------



## Dioltach

Dioltach said:


> Doctors in the UK are recommending people use an oximeter three times a day to measure their oxygen levels. Apparently one of the big mysteries of COVID is that people's oxygen levels are dropping without them noticing until it's too late. Full article on the BBC: Covid: How a £20 gadget could save lives - BBC News



The oximeter I'd ordered yesterday just arrived. I tried it, and it said 98%. Just goes to show what I've always suspected: I'm full of bull!

("Oxi", get it? Sounds like "ox", as in "bull". I crack myself up sometimes.)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A dad joke, to be sure!


----------



## Eltab

Dioltach said:


> The oximeter I'd ordered yesterday just arrived. I tried it, and it said 98%. Just goes to show what I've always suspected: I'm full of bull!
> 
> ("Oxi", get it? Sounds like "ox", as in "bull". I crack myself up sometimes.)



You are only 2% short of being a complete gas (as in something that causes laughter).  Just a little bit more to go !


----------



## Zardnaar

One case in community we got an emergency broadcast at 4pm. 

 Last outbreak outside qurantine was in August. 










						29 locations woman with Covid-19 visited revealed
					

The Ministry of Health says a probable case of Covid-19 in the community is a reminder of how tricky the virus is, as it releases a list of 29 locations the woman visited.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Looks like they're on to it.


----------



## Ryujin

Regional and international shipping via Canada Post is taking a hit, due to a large Covid-19 outbreak at a local sorting facility. This place is a little over a 15 minute drive from my place and is how most of my parcels and Amazon purchases are handled. It's a 3 shift, 24/7 facility, now with one less shift.









						350 Canada Post employees at Mississauga, Ont. facility sent home to self-isolate as cases continue to rise
					

A group of employees who work the same shift at a Canada Post facility in Mississauga have been sent home and advised to isolate to prevent further spread of COVID-19 as the number of cases at the site continues to climb.



					toronto.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Researchers testing extant pharmaceuticals’ efficacy vs C19 have found that a cancer drug that may be MUCH more effective than remdesivir.









						Cancer drug is 27.5 times more effective at treating COVID-19 than remdesivir, study suggests
					

Researchers reported Monday in the journal Science that a drug developed to fight multiple myeloma has proved 27.5 times more effective at treating COVID-19 than remdesivir in laboratory studies with infected human lung and kidney cells. The drug, Aplidin or Plitidepsin, was also effective at...




					www.yahoo.com
				




It’s still preliminary, but looks promising.


----------



## Zardnaar

Something you read about but a video. 


 Americans moving to NZ going through qurantine. Not as strict as Aussie, they can't leave the rooms or chose their food.

 Technically he's a kiwi, NZ father but raised in USA. NZ has birthright citizenship if one parent is a citizen it's how he got in. US wife afaik.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Fighting C19 in America is going to take a looooooooooooooong time.








						Dodger Stadium's COVID-19 vaccination site temporarily shut down after protesters gather at entrance
					

The demonstrators included members of anti-vaccine and far-right groups.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Fighting C19 in America is going to take a looooooooooooooong time.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dodger Stadium's COVID-19 vaccination site temporarily shut down after protesters gather at entrance
> 
> 
> The demonstrators included members of anti-vaccine and far-right groups.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.latimes.com




 WP keeps track. 



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/
		


 24 million so far.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> 24 million so far.




So, it would _REALLY_ help if you said what there were 24 million of.

As of this writing, there are 26 million people in the US who we can confirm have had covid-19.  There a re some 19 million who have gotten one shot of vaccine.  Of that 19, about 3 million have gotten a second dose of their vaccine.


----------



## GreyLord

Zardnaar said:


> Something you read about but a video.
> 
> 
> Americans moving to NZ going through qurantine. Not as strict as Aussie, they can't leave the rooms or chose their food.
> 
> Technically he's a kiwi, NZ father but raised in USA. NZ has birthright citizenship if one parent is a citizen it's how he got in. US wife afaik.




Room service in a Hotel for 2 weeks.  If you had Covid-19, that would suck.  If you didn't, but were just quarantined...that would actually be pretty nice.  Pack some books, an Xbox or Playstation, and a computer and you have a vacation in the making.

For those who don't mind staying in a room with that stuff for an extended period of time it could be a GREAT vacation.  I'd be one of those probably.

For those who hate being indoors and would go stir crazy, they probably would hate it though.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> Room service in a Hotel for 2 weeks.  If you had Covid-19, that would suck.  If you didn't, but were just quarantined...that would actually be pretty nice.  Pack some books, an Xbox or Playstation, and a computer and you have a vacation in the making.
> 
> For those who don't mind staying in a room with that stuff for an extended period of time it could be a GREAT vacation.  I'd be one of those probably.
> 
> For those who hate being indoors and would go stir crazy, they probably would hate it though.




 Yeah families are allowed to drop off things like playstations. 

 Irs mostly 4 and 5 star hotels with catering and to pick your food. Mostly it's free as well unless you leave for less than 3 months. 

 Early on it got pointed out it's cheaper to fly to Australia for 1 hour, return and spend your time in permanent isolation than pay rent in Auckland.

 If you try that now you have to pay,around 3k.


----------



## Thomas Shey

I looked at the one picture and said "So there's a balcony so I can relieve my tendency toward claustrophobia; past that, it depends on how ,much food options I have, and other than that I hang out with my wife, read and play computer games.  Not exactly torture."

But then, I'm a guy who likes to walk and swim sometimes, but is otherwise kind of a cave troll and not all that personally social, so I'm not everyone.


----------



## Zardnaar

Captain Tom Morgan died of Covid
 Hmmn can't link to BBC. 


 The economic arguements used against lockdowns seem to be full of crap. 









						Unemployment fell to 4.9% in December quarter
					

The rate of unemployment fell to 4.9 percent in the three months ended December, down from 5.3 percent in the previous quarter.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




  Unemployment fell instead of going up, deficit also came in a lot smaller than expected. 









						Government deficit $543m less than forecast
					

Official figures show the government's deficit was $4.3 billion for the five months ended November, $546 million less than forecast in the December fiscal update.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 PM arguement last year was the economy is the people and controlling Covid was better option.

 Been some leaks in qurantine. 


 Contact traced and contained in a few days. Complaints about not being able to get through. Capacity and logistics 100 000 people have made it through qurantine.

 Probably won't get vaccines until second half of year. Early preorders made last March/April should be plenty assuming no disruptions. Think they're going to help out various Pacific Island nations with the excess.


----------



## Garthanos

"The economic arguments used against lockdowns seem to be full of crap." 
Yes they are full of crap if one is paying attention.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Though I should note (and I don't know to what degree this is or isn't true in NZ) that the ways of counting unemployment in the U.S. are dodgy as hell and chronically understate it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> Though I should note (and I don't know to what degree this is or isn't true in NZ) that the ways of counting unemployment in the U.S. are dodgy as hell and chronically understate it.




It's undercounted by a little bit due to the way the data is counted. 

 Basically if you're not on welfare you don't get counted. 

 Usually we normally get rated very high on things like accurate government data, security, accuracy etc.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Basically if you're not on welfare you don't get counted.




In the US, we don't have a mechanism to accurately know who is working or who is not, except through the unemployment insurance system. If you aren't collecting unemployment, we don't know if you are working, have decided to retire, or have taken up some other activity such that you don't intend to work.  

Unfortunately, the unemployment insurance system misses some types of workers - like self-employed folks, and many cash-basis workers.  For another, a person can only collect unemployment for so much time before it cuts off.

So, yes, we under-count.  We have some estimates of how much we miss by, but, we simply don't have a way to check every person, constantly.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> In the US, we don't have a mechanism to accurately know who is working or who is not, except through the unemployment insurance system. If you aren't collecting unemployment, we don't know if you are working, have decided to retire, or have taken up some other activity such that you don't intend to work.
> 
> Unfortunately, the unemployment insurance system misses some types of workers - like self-employed folks, and many cash-basis workers.  For another, a person can only collect unemployment for so much time before it cuts off.
> 
> So, yes, we under-count.  We have some estimates of how much we miss by, but, we simply don't have a way to check every person, constantly.




 I'm not 100% sure how it's counted here but I think it's based on welfare. 

 We have universal system but not everyone qualifies eg if you lose your job but your partner doesn't you're unemployed but won't get counted afaik.

 It's not perfect or 100% fair.


----------



## Imaculata

The grandmother of a close friend of mine just got diagnosed with Covid. She is one of the sweetest people in the world that I know, but she also has astma, so that doesn't bode well for her. She is suffering from a lot of headaches, coughing, and has trouble breathing. I really hope she pulls through.


----------



## Zardnaar

Never really looked into the ins and outs much until this week for qurantine.


 Short video. Living the high life in a 4.5 star hotel. 

 The nitty gritty. 

 With tourism essentially collapsed (internal tourism, a few leftovers from last year, people stuck here and a trickle of foreigners) the government is using hotels for qurantine. 100 000 people have made it through qurantine.

  How it works. 

 You arrive in the country and you get escorted from the plane to a bus by the military (no guns). You get bussed to a hotel, in some cases they may fly you to a different city such as Christchurch or Rotorua. You don't get the choice of hotel. 

 You get to spend 14 days in qurantine. You get tested for Covid at least twice day 3 and 11 afaik (could be wrong on the exact day). 

 If you break the rules your stay gets reset back to day 1. If you really break the rules (break out of the qurantine) the police come day hi and you get to do qurantine as a guest of her majesty's in one of our fine prisons. Out of 100k 9 people decided to try this all got caught. 

You're allowed to exercise in the carpark. There is catering so you can pick from a preselected menu. From this video they're eating better than I am. 

 They ring you up each day for a chat to see if you're doing alright and if you need anything. Helps break the boredom I suppose. 

 Friends and family can visit but you have to stay separated and talk through the fence. They can drop off food, video game consoles etc. 

 Alcohol is provided I think it's something like a six pack or a bottle of wine or two per day. More than I drink anyway (about a six pack/week if that). 

The cost is mostly free the government pays for it unless you leave the country and return in 3 months eg a holiday. Then it's around $3000 ($2000 USD) odd dollars. You can apply for an exemption eg family emergency in Australia. They're not so willing to pay for holidays. 

 Bit of a crapshoot to get back in as well. Been some hiccups along the way, outbreak last August as Covid slipped through. Qurantine also wasn't run so well early on but they brought the military in.

 Trending on social media here. 









						US tourists on expiring visa desperate to stay until they can get vaccinated
					

The self-sustaining visitors fear for their lives if they're sent back to their virus-riddled homeland.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 General opinion is let them stay if they can support themselves.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Fighting C19 in America is going to take a looooooooooooooong time.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dodger Stadium's COVID-19 vaccination site temporarily shut down after protesters gather at entrance
> 
> 
> The demonstrators included members of anti-vaccine and far-right groups.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.latimes.com



A very loooooooooooooong time.








						Iowa Democrat wears jeans on House floor to protest lack of mask mandate
					

House Speaker Pat Grassley has said he can't require lawmakers to wear masks on the House floor, but Democrats have pointed out that jeans are banned.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> A very loooooooooooooong time.




It will, but it doesn't have to.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> It will, but it doesn't have to.



I’m betting on 1 part benign mutation and one part behavioral changes.  Maybe a bit of a silver lining with C19 having burned its way through the Indian population that HASN’T had their immune systems tempered by the endemic pathogens.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m betting on 1 part benign mutation and one part behavioral changes.  Maybe a bit of a silver lining with C19 having burned its way through the Indian population that HASN’T had their immune systems tempered by the endemic pathogens.




 In just over a month around 25 million vaccinated. 

 I assume that can be ramped up and/or vaccine production needs to be ramped up. 

 Looking at a year maybe to get to 240 million at the current rate (which should speed up).

 70% is here immunity? 

 We're assuming 2021 is a washout for the most part borders closed until Jan 2022 minimum. 

 Vaccine was never gonna be the miracle get back to normal in 3 months.

 Positives got vaccine faster than anticipated.

 27.5 million vaccinated according to Washington Post.


----------



## Zardnaar

Emergency rations sent to USA. Friend in Houston father died in Mexico City of Covid.






 She said they're basically they're letting old people die. She knew he was doomed once he was admitted. 

 Gave them a few weeks and daughter and hubby like NZ chocolate.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’m sure the gesture will be appreciated.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m sure the gesture will be appreciated.




 Yeah what do you do? US isn't the worst in the world.


----------



## Umbran

I've been reading a bit, watching vaccine rollout, and it seems that some reasons for it beign slow (and, by the way, by no means is it only slow in the US - other "First world" countries are also botching it) is coming into focus.

You can focus on getting needles into arms, and be efficient, or you can focus on _only_ putting needles in the correct arms, and slow yourself down.  We have this phase structure, and the hoops you have to go through to make really sure that only those who are supposed to get the shot in the current phase is slowing us down tremendously, and causing significant waste of time and vaccine.

I understand that there's a great desire for equity and propriety in distribution.  And maybe if smart people had been able to work real planning for, say, the six months leading up to the vaccines being ready, we might have that.  But the infrastructure to quickly and smoothly enforce equity and propriety were not put in place, so now we stumble.  We might get better outcomes by rolling up vaccine clinics and having people stroll thorugh neighborhoods with bullhorns telling folks, "Okay, come over to the parking lot with your ID and your sleeves rolled up, people, and let's get it done!!"


----------



## Dioltach

Umbran said:


> I've been reading a bit, watching vaccine rollout, and it seems that some reasons for it beign slow (and, by the way, by no means is it only slow in the US - other "First world" countries are also botching it) is coming into focus.



No kidding, At the rate we're going in the Netherlands, I'll get mine somewhere between 3 and 6 years from now.


----------



## Istbor

Makes me almost feel bad to say that I got my first shot of Pfizer last week. I was very lucky in that respect. 

No real ill effects like fatigue. Arm hurt a bit after but that is pretty normal. Both my parents have gotten their first shots (both over 65, and one with other health concerns in the mix). 

That, and I am an uncle now, so a pretty eventful week. 

Makes one feel guilty for those having a rougher time of it. Or those that opposite of me had a terrible week last week. I'll just hope that some good times come to others that really need it right now. 

Not sure how some people can't even muster hope for others, though.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> I've been reading a bit, watching vaccine rollout, and it seems that some reasons for it beign slow (and, by the way, by no means is it only slow in the US - other "First world" countries are also botching it) is coming into focus.



Canada is definitely one of those countries. We got the initial response to the virus essentially right, if somewhat delayed, in most of the country. (Quebec is always its own thing.) The vaccine rollout, however, has been completely botched. it's just plain not being acquired, let alone disseminated, despite several early standing agreements.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I've been reading a bit, watching vaccine rollout, and it seems that some reasons for it beign slow (and, by the way, by no means is it only slow in the US - other "First world" countries are also botching it) is coming into focus.
> 
> You can focus on getting needles into arms, and be efficient, or you can focus on _only_ putting needles in the correct arms, and slow yourself down.  We have this phase structure, and the hoops you have to go through to make really sure that only those who are supposed to get the shot in the current phase is slowing us down tremendously, and causing significant waste of time and vaccine.
> 
> I understand that there's a great desire for equity and propriety in distribution.  And maybe if smart people had been able to work real planning for, say, the six months leading up to the vaccines being ready, we might have that.  But the infrastructure to quickly and smoothly enforce equity and propriety were not put in place, so now we stumble.  We might get better outcomes by rolling up vaccine clinics and having people stroll thorugh neighborhoods with bullhorns telling folks, "Okay, come over to the parking lot with your ID and your sleeves rolled up, people, and let's get it done!!"



Steady work for carnival barkers!

TBH, no reason not to take a hybrid approach.  Some distribution via targeted cueing; some via walk-in.  Especially with some people out there aggressively chasing vaccinations by scouring media and waiting to see if “leftovers” are available at this or that location.


----------



## Zardnaar

Bureaucratic inertia in action. 

 Americans transitioning to Antarctica. They've already done isolation and they don't have to do it again coming back from Antarctica. 

They're allowed to have a couple of days off and look around Christchurch but not allowed to stay. 









						Hundreds of 'cashed-up', Covid-free Americans cannot holiday in New Zealand after Antarctic posting
					

They have money in their pockets and are Covid-free. But hundreds of Americans cannot holiday in New Zealand on their way home from Antarctica.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 One would think common sense would apply.


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> I've been reading a bit, watching vaccine rollout, and it seems that some reasons for it beign slow (and, by the way, by no means is it only slow in the US - other "First world" countries are also botching it) is coming into focus.
> 
> You can focus on getting needles into arms, and be efficient, or you can focus on _only_ putting needles in the correct arms, and slow yourself down.  We have this phase structure, and the hoops you have to go through to make really sure that only those who are supposed to get the shot in the current phase is slowing us down tremendously, and causing significant waste of time and vaccine.
> 
> I understand that there's a great desire for equity and propriety in distribution.  And maybe if smart people had been able to work real planning for, say, the six months leading up to the vaccines being ready, we might have that.  But the infrastructure to quickly and smoothly enforce equity and propriety were not put in place, so now we stumble.  We might get better outcomes by rolling up vaccine clinics and having people stroll thorugh neighborhoods with bullhorns telling folks, "Okay, come over to the parking lot with your ID and your sleeves rolled up, people, and let's get it done!!"



I think the issue is that health organizations are treating this vaccine like the influenza vaccine -or a typical vaccine- when they should be treating it like the smallpox vaccine in the 70's. Everybody getting one, with brigades going door to door and stations being set in plazas and public transport. Since there aren't enough doses yet, they are following a typical triage pattern, but this virus doesn't follow typical patterns. It is like with temperature checks. These are very good at controlling influenza, but very bad at controlling this one.

Edit: I know it from experience. Temperature controls did wonders with H1N1 -I live in the epicenter of that epidemic, we were quarantined for two months, but things got better quickly-. But they did diddly squat to control the international spread of this thing.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> I think the issue is that health organizations are treating this vaccine like the influenza vaccine -or a typical vaccine- when they should be treating it like the smallpox vaccine in the 70's. Everybody getting one, with brigades going door to door and stations being set in plazas and public transport. Since there aren't enough doses yet, they are following a typical triage pattern, but this virus doesn't follow typical patterns. It is like with temperature checks. These are very good at controlling influenza, but very bad at controlling this one.
> 
> Edit: I know it from experience. Temperature controls did wonders with H1N1 -I live in the epicenter of that epidemic, we were quarantined for two months, but things got better quickly-. But they did diddly squat to control the international spread of this thing.




Temperature checks and people in bio hazard suits going around sanitizing stuff is mostly visual optics for government's to say "see we are doing something". 

Neither matters a lick of beans.


----------



## Umbran

MoonSong said:


> Since there aren't enough doses yet, they are following a typical triage pattern, but this virus doesn't follow typical patterns.




Um, yes, the virus follows typical patterns for a virus, as much as there is a "typical pattern".  The behavior of the thing in the population is pretty well-understood at this point.  I think you might misunderstand the purpose of using the triage model.  

The vaccine distribution is not intended to target those most likely to _catch_ the virus.  It is not intended to somehow blunt the spread with targeted vaccination.  With wide community spread, that's not possible.  In this situation, you only slow the virus by generally vaccinating the population - picking one demographic or the other won't change the overall number of infections now.

The triage model is to protect those _most likely to die_ if they get sick, then those whose labor is most necessary for communities to continue functioning.  Those of us who are more likely to survive a bout of the thing, and who won't stop basic infrastructure if we get sick, can wait.  

Now, as to what "health organizations" are doing.  There are no particularly broad "health organizations" that have capability to manage such things in the US.  Period.  This required a unified approach by the Federal government, with which State level resources could interface.  Without that Federal-level plan, the thing ends up a wasteful circus.



MoonSong said:


> It is like with temperature checks. These are very good at controlling influenza, but very bad at controlling this one.




Temperature checks work with influenza because a person is apt to be contagious for at most a day before they show flu symptoms.  Temperature checks are security theater for covid-19, because you can be contagious for several days before you develop a fever, if you ever develop a fever at all.  Asymptomatic spread makes temperature checks for covid-19 nigh worthless.


----------



## Zardnaar

Interesting video. 



 I knew Israel was doing well but they're best in world. 

USA is doing better than a few places. 

 Anyone know if The Guardian is a good source. Not to familiar with them relative to BBC/NBC/CNN/Reuters.


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> The triage model is to protect those _most likely to die_ if they get sick, then those whose labor is most necessary for communities to continue functioning. Those of us who are more likely to survive a bout of the thing, and who won't stop basic infrastructure if we get sick, can wait.



Yes, of course. What I mean is that the deceases caused by this virus skirt a bit younger than with influenza. With influenza the curve is basically exponential, with this thing the curve is normal, getting as much people in their fifties and forties as people in their seventies and sixties. Yet -at least in my country- they are distributing the vaccine as if it was the influenza, disproportionally targeting people over 65.  They aren't even accounting for people with other diseases that have proven to be very lethal when catching Covid -like diabetes-. Like I said they are still stuck in the influenza mindset, treating this as if it was influenza, it is not, and that is why this triage isn't working.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> Anyone know if The Guardian is a good source. Not to familiar with them relative to BBC/NBC/CNN/Reuters.




I've found them fairly reliable on other topics.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> One would think common sense would apply.



Bwahahahah then usans such as myself are doomed. We have people in congress who think jewish space lasers are starting fires in california.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Bwahahahah then usans such as myself are doomed. We have people in congress who think jewish space lasers are starting fires in california.




Personally I was hoping for one if the microchip vaccines. 5G mind control one would be great. 

 Preferably purple or blue. 

  Hell they can inject me with the whole damn iPhone.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Personally I was hoping for one if the microchip vaccines. 5G mind control one would be great.
> 
> Preferably purple or blue.
> 
> Hell they can inject me with the whole damn iPhone.



Ah but you know its not the congress woman's fault because "they" let her believe this nonsense. Our country is truly doomed.


----------



## MoonSong

Zardnaar said:


> Personally I was hoping for one if the microchip vaccines. 5G mind control one would be great.
> 
> Preferably purple or blue.
> 
> Hell they can inject me with the whole damn iPhone.



Local response: "They gave water to kids with cancer instead of chemo to save a buck. Do you think this miser penny pinching Government is going to spend billions of dollars on mind control chips?"


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Why The Pandemic Is 10 Times Worse Than You Think
					

Not everyone gets tested. A new model estimates how many infections are missed because of this and how many people are actively shedding the virus. The results lend urgency to the vaccine race.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> Ah but you know its not the congress woman's fault because "they" let her believe this nonsense. Our country is truly doomed.




Politics.  Let's wander away from that please and thanks.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Currently pushing Mom in her wheelchair through a vaccination line.  Moving quickly!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Back home now. The site worked like a well-oiled machine. In the time it took me to type my post about being in line (with just my left thumb) while getting a temp check and pushing Mom’s chair, we were 90% of the way through the initial line. That got us to filling out the paperwork.

Second station was checking the details on the paperwork, which took just minutes.

Third stop was another room, where we rolled right up to a pair of technicians, one who administered the shot (Phizer vaccine), one who did all the inventorying and making sure Mom had an appointment for her 2nd shot,

After 15 minutes of waiting in a seating area to guard against possible early-onset negative reactions to the shot, we were on the way back to the car. All told, 30-40 minutes.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Back home now. The site worked like a well-oiled machine. In the time it took me to type my post about being in line (with just my left thumb) while getting a temp check and pushing Mom’s chair, we were 90% of the way through the initial line. That got us to filling out the paperwork.
> 
> Second station was checking the details on the paperwork, which took just minutes.
> 
> Third stop was another room, where we rolled right up to a pair of technicians, one who administered the shot (Phizer vaccine), one who did all the inventorying and making sure Mom had an appointment for her 2nd shot,
> 
> After 15 minutes of waiting in a seating area to guard against possible early-onset negative reactions to the shot, we were on the way back to the car. All told, 30-40 minutes.



That is great to hear!!!


----------



## ccs

Well, Covid has claimed another victim. 
While on a business trip in Michigan 3 weeks ago my uncle started to feel really poorly.  For his 71st birthday he checked himself into a local hospital, was diagnosed with both Covid & pneumonia.
Last week he had to be sedated & put on a ventilator. 
We got the call yesterday morning (2/8/21) that he'd died.

Now we get to deal with retrieving him, a funeral, & all.

My, quite serious, suggestion was to have him cremated there in Michigan, retrieve his very easy to transport _& sterilized_ ashes, and hold a proper service when conditions improve.
His sons didn't really like that idea.  
One of them is insistent upon having calling hours.  Maybe we can talk him out of that.  At the very least he's going to feel even worse when virtually no one shows up. 

The real tragedy here (other than having his last meal consist of hospital meatloaf)?  
My uncle didn't need to be on this trip.  Everything he was doing he could've handled remotely.  And both the company that he worked for & the client were completely fine with that.  As well as even being willing to delay things a few weeks so that he could've gotten round one of a vaccination (my state is rolling it out by age brackets & at 70/71 he'd have been in the 2nd or 3rd weeks worth of people).
On top of that?  He's old, he's had heart surgery in the last 18 months, he's prone to getting pneumonia, he's out there trekking through states where infection rates are running rampant, & he's coming in contact with God knows how many potential sources of infection.
My brother & I are like _"Why?  Why would you do that?  Why take that pointless amount of risk?"_
But he insisted on doing this stuff in person as much as possible....
And to quote my Aunt _"He never thought he'd get it."_
He left home 4 weeks ago Covid free (he was tested the day before he left).   Now we're having a funeral.


----------



## Imaculata

My condolences.


----------



## Eltab

ccs said:


> Well, Covid has claimed another victim.
> While on a business trip in Michigan 3 weeks ago my uncle started to feel really poorly.  For his 71st birthday he checked himself into a local hospital, was diagnosed with both Covid & pneumonia.
> Last week he had to be sedated & put on a ventilator.
> We got the call yesterday morning (2/8/21) that he'd died.
> 
> Now we get to deal with retrieving him, a funeral, & all.
> 
> My, quite serious, suggestion was to have him cremated there in Michigan, retrieve his very easy to transport _& sterilized_ ashes, and hold a proper service when conditions improve.
> His sons didn't really like that idea.
> One of them is insistent upon having calling hours.  Maybe we can talk him out of that.  At the very least he's going to feel even worse when virtually no one shows up.
> 
> The real tragedy here (other than having his last meal consist of hospital meatloaf)?
> My uncle didn't need to be on this trip.  Everything he was doing he could've handled remotely.  And both the company that he worked for & the client were completely fine with that.  As well as even being willing to delay things a few weeks so that he could've gotten round one of a vaccination (my state is rolling it out by age brackets & at 70/71 he'd have been in the 2nd or 3rd weeks worth of people).
> On top of that?  He's old, he's had heart surgery in the last 18 months, he's prone to getting pneumonia, he's out there trekking through states where infection rates are running rampant, & he's coming in contact with God knows how many potential sources of infection.
> My brother & I are like _"Why?  Why would you do that?  Why take that pointless amount of risk?"_
> But he insisted on doing this stuff in person as much as possible....
> And to quote my Aunt _"He never thought he'd get it."_
> He left home 4 weeks ago Covid free (he was tested the day before he left).   Now we're having a funeral.



My condolences.


----------



## Umbran

Oh, man, that's awful.  Peace to you and yours.


----------



## Garthanos

Damn that sucks....


----------



## Deset Gled

Garthanos said:


> Damn that sucks....



Sorry to hear that, ccs.


----------



## Mind of tempest

you guys hear the grim news?


----------



## Deset Gled

Mind of tempest said:


> you guys hear the grim news?



Remember kids, only YOU can stop click bait!


----------



## Mind of tempest

Deset Gled said:


> Remember kids, only YOU can stop click bait!



apparently were looking at dealing with new strains till 2030.


----------



## Deset Gled

Mind of tempest said:


> apparently were looking at dealing with new strains till 2030.



That's not as bad as it's sounds, nor is it unexpected.  COVID19 is, itself, jut a new strain of an old disease.  Most viruses are.  Realistically, we're looking at new strains of coronavirus for the rest of our existence.  In all of human history, we've only managed to eradicate 2 diseases: smallpox and rinderpest.

Now, what those new strains will look like is an interesting question.  But not one that can be answered a decade in advance.


----------



## Mind of tempest

Deset Gled said:


> That's not as bad as it's sounds, nor is it unexpected.  COVID19 is, itself, jut a new strain of an old disease.  Most viruses are.  Realistically, we're looking at new strains of coronavirus for the rest of our existence.  In all of human history, we've only managed to eradicate 2 diseases: smallpox and rinderpest.
> 
> Now, what those new strains will look like is an interesting question.  But not one that can be answered a decade in advance.



life tends to be depressing so going with the worst case seems likely.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Mind of tempest said:


> life tends to be depressing so going with the worst case seems likely.




That's not how viral mutation works though; you'll get various strains with various traits, and the most successful are not necessarily the most problematic.


----------



## Mind of tempest

Thomas Shey said:


> That's not how viral mutation works though; you'll get various strains with various traits, and the most successful are not necessarily the most problematic.



your right, it is more my perspective that life tends towards depressing so I take it that it will be new flavours of unpleasent.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Mind of tempest said:


> your right, it is more my perspective that life tends towards depressing so I take it that it will be new flavours of unpleasent.




Its always easy to find reasons (sometimes good ones) to be pessimistic, but its just as likely to produce false assumptions as its opposite.


----------



## Mind of tempest

Thomas Shey said:


> Its always easy to find reasons (sometimes good ones) to be pessimistic, but its just as likely to produce false assumptions as its opposite.



true just never found reasons to be optimistic.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> That's not how viral mutation works though; you'll get various strains with various traits, and the most successful are not necessarily the most problematic.




Yes.  "Success" in viral terms is generally, "makes the most copies of itself."  Killing the host tends to limit the number of copies of you that get made.  So, selection tends to lead to greater ubiquity, but lesser severity.
This is how we get the "common cold" - they are all over the place, everybody gets them, but they are no big deal.


----------



## Mind of tempest

Umbran said:


> Yes.  "Success" in viral terms is generally, "makes the most copies of itself."  Killing the host tends to limit the number of copies of you that get made.  So, selection tends to lead to greater ubiquity, but lesser severity.
> This is how we get the "common cold" - they are all over the place, everybody gets them, but they are no big deal.



that does not mean it will get to that state quickly or ever.


----------



## Umbran

Mind of tempest said:


> that does not mean it will get to that state quickly or ever.




Insofar as trends are not guarantees, that's true.  And certainly, given that we are annoyed when pizza takes too long to show up, it won't happen "quickly" on our terms.  But quickly, maybe even lightning speed, in evolutionary terms.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The Vaccine Had to Be Used. He Used It. He Was Fired.
					

The Texas doctor had six hours. Now that a vial of COVID-19 vaccine had been opened on this late December night, he had to find 10 eligible people for its remaining doses before the precious medicine expired. In six hours. Scrambling, the doctor made house calls and directed people to his home...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The Vaccine Had to Be Used. He Used It. He Was Fired.
> 
> 
> The Texas doctor had six hours. Now that a vial of COVID-19 vaccine had been opened on this late December night, he had to find 10 eligible people for its remaining doses before the precious medicine expired. In six hours. Scrambling, the doctor made house calls and directed people to his home...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



Hopefully, if convened, the grand jury will do the right thing and refuse to indict. Otherwise, this does smack of being racially motivated...


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Insofar as trends are not guarantees, that's true.  And certainly, given that we are annoyed when pizza takes too long to show up, it won't happen "quickly" on our terms.  But quickly, maybe even lightning speed, in evolutionary terms.




 One can look at previous pandemics. They seem to hang around for around 3 years. 

 They generally seem to mutate into less deadly variants.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> One can look at previous pandemics. They seem to hang around for around 3 years.




The number of useful historical examples, though, is small, making the trend a bit difficult to be sure of.  And (we can hope) this time around is different, as other pandemics did not have such successful vaccine development programs.

News this morning is that Pfizer and Moderna have both increased and stepped up their delivery schedules - it is expected they'll deliver enough vaccine for 300 million Americans by May


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> The number of useful historical examples, though, is small, making the trend a bit difficult to be sure of.  And (we can hope) this time around is different, as other pandemics did not have such successful vaccine development programs.
> 
> News this morning is that Pfizer and Moderna have both increased and stepped up their delivery schedules - it is expected they'll deliver enough vaccine for 300 million Americans by May



around 2 months sooner than previously


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> around 2 months sooner than previously




Yeah.  They started with a July estimate, moved back to June, and now to May.  So there's a good hope that everyone is vaccinated by mid-summer or so.

Oh, and a cite for this news:  Biden Announces Deal For 200 Million More COVID-19 Vaccines


----------



## Garthanos

Thomas Shey said:


> That's not how viral mutation works though; you'll get various strains with various traits, and the most successful are not necessarily the most problematic.



The more successful tend to be less deadly... they can still have horrible linger effects


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> The more successful tend to be less deadly... they can still have horrible linger effects




Nobody is saying that the thing is going to become negligible.  Merely that chances are over time it will get better for humans, rather than worse.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Garthanos said:


> The more successful tend to be less deadly... they can still have horrible linger effects




To an extent; counterselection is usually for early mortality, but you can absolutely get something like AIDS which is successful and still lethal, it just takes a while (barring modern drug treatments).  But that still, in practice, tends select out a fair number of really bad infections over time; its just not a certainty that, as you say, it'll avoid long-term effects.

Or, a long-winded way of saying what Umbran says above.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> The number of useful historical examples, though, is small, making the trend a bit difficult to be sure of.  And (we can hope) this time around is different, as other pandemics did not have such successful vaccine development programs.
> 
> News this morning is that Pfizer and Moderna have both increased and stepped up their delivery schedules - it is expected they'll deliver enough vaccine for 300 million Americans by May



There’s also a few notable counterexamples, like smallpox and bubonic plague.  Neither evolved into less deadly forms.  One, we used vaccination to eradicate in the wild, and the other we changed our behavior in order to minimize its impact on us (PLUS developed treatments to survive it).

See also anthrax, SARS, MERS, ebola, Marburg, Lhasa, and Hantavirus.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> One, we used vaccination to eradicate in the wild, and the other we changed our behavior in order to minimize its impact on us (PLUS developed treatments to survive it).
> 
> See also anthrax, SARS, MERS, ebola, Marburg, Lhasa, and Hantavirus.




Yep.  Humans can, if they have their heads screwed on straight, adapt behavior and/or technology much more quickly than viruses change.  That's kind of the point of having the big brain.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s also a few notable counterexamples, like smallpox and bubonic plague.  Neither evolved into less deadly forms.  One, we used vaccination to eradicate in the wild, and the other we changed our behavior in order to minimize its impact on us (PLUS developed treatments to survive it).
> 
> See also anthrax, SARS, MERS, ebola, Marburg, Lhasa, and Hantavirus.




 Modern bubonic plague is a lot less deadly than the black death to the point that they're wondering if it's the same thing. 

  Doesn't quite match up as we only have descriptions of its effects. It doesn't spread as rapidly either that might be partly because of modern hygiene. 

 But it still lingers on in parts of the world lacking those facilities. 

  There were further outbreaks of plague after the black death but it didn't kill one in three. Accounts of the plague in Roman times also indicate it was worse. 

 And it's not like hygiene really improved much until the late 19th centy.

 But we'll still be dealing with Covid until 2022 minimum.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> But we'll still be dealing with Covid until 2022 minimum.




I think you need to define who you mean by "we" and "dealing with" for that to be a meaningful statement.

If "we" is "the world", then yes.  There will be places the vaccines haven't reached yet.  If "we" is "your town", then covid-19 may be a practical non-issue before summer's end.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> I think you need to define who you mean by "we" and "dealing with" for that to be a meaningful statement.
> 
> If "we" is "the world", then yes.  There will be places the vaccines haven't reached yet.  If "we" is "your town", then covid-19 may be a practical non-issue before summer's end.




 We I meant at the government level. Going to take years for tourism for example to recover. 

 Probably have to ask some hard questions here and there about a lot if things.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Modern bubonic plague is a lot less deadly than the black death to the point that they're wondering if it's the same thing.
> 
> Doesn't quite match up as we only have descriptions of its effects. It doesn't spread as rapidly either that might be partly because of modern hygiene.
> 
> But it still lingers on in parts of the world lacking those facilities.
> 
> There were further outbreaks of plague after the black death but it didn't kill one in three. Accounts of the plague in Roman times also indicate it was worse.
> 
> And it's not like hygiene really improved much until the late 19th centy.
> 
> But we'll still be dealing with Covid until 2022 minimum.



While we actually have effective treatments for it now, public health is the real key. PH in general has saved more lives than medicine ever will. With the plague, differences in public health measures- better hygiene, better rat control, anti-flea measures, contact tracing, etc.- are significant barriers to rapid spread. 

Hell, every outbreak in the USA- about 7 per year- gets significant local news coverage, usually including all kinds of warnings about how to avoid getting or spreading it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> While we actually have effective treatments for it now, public health is the real key. PH in general has saved more lives than medicine ever will. With the plague, differences in public health measures- better hygiene, better rat control, anti-flea measures, contact tracing, etc.- are significant barriers to rapid spread.
> 
> Hell, every outbreak in the USA gets significant local news coverage, usually including all kinds of warnings about how to avoid getting or spreading it.




More outside USA. The common belief is it's less deadly than it used to be because it's never been repeated and the records indicate slightly different symptoms. 

 I think it originated in Myanmar/NE India. May have been that perfect storm as well conditions, mutations maybe more than one pathogen. 

 Common flu may be the remnants of Spanish Flu from 100 years ago. 

 3 years seems to be the longer lasting pandemics anyway. Obviously long term effects extend beyond that.


----------



## Garthanos

Thomas Shey said:


> To an extent; counterselection is usually for early mortality, but you can absolutely get something like AIDS which is successful and still lethal, it just takes a while (barring modern drug treatments).  But that still, in practice, tends select out a fair number of really bad infections over time; its just not a certainty that, as you say, it'll avoid long-term effects.



yeh one could say aids is a horrible long term effect of the less lethal direct effects of the virus.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> Yep.  Humans can, if they have their heads screwed on straight, adapt behavior and/or technology much more quickly than viruses change.  That's kind of the point of having the big brain.



Mmmm, brainzzzz


----------



## Thomas Shey

Garthanos said:


> yeh one could say aids is a horrible long term effect of the less lethal direct effects of the virus.





That's the gig here.  Mutation, essentially, rolls the dice for new traits, and then selection picks the versions of an organism that does best, reproductively speaking out of them.  Virii and other microorganisms have rapid life cycles, so you get to see the process in realtime in a way that a lot of other organisms do that too slowly to do.

All other things being equal, host mortality increases are counterselected for.  That's true even of things like AIDS; a host that lived out its whole life as a virus generating factory would be more beneficial to reproduction of the organism than one that doesn't.  But once the survival time is long enough relative to the virus life-cycle, that selection pressure is minor, whereas other elements may be stronger.

That's why really quick-kill diseases are rare; they can take down the host before it even gets a chance to spread the disease, and the counter-selection there is stronger the shorter the time frame is.  The longer it takes, the more other reproductively benign traits start to weigh in more than that.

But this still tells you why "super deadly and super quick diseases" aren't really common; its a poor reproduction strategy, and that quickly selects away from it, and the selection away from deadly diseases never really _stops_. Its just the effect on slower-killing diseases can be kind of weak.


----------



## Zardnaar

Beaking news.  Three cases out of qurantine. 









						Recap: Auckland moves to Covid-19 Level 3, rest of NZ to Level 2
					

Auckland has now entered Covid-19 alert level 3, and the rest of NZ level 2, after three members of a family who travelled widely tested positive. Authorities say they are yet to "put a ring around" the cases.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 One of the family connected to airport. See how will contact tracing works.


----------



## Zardnaar

3 day lockdown in NZ, Level 3 Auckland level 2 everywhere else. 

 Level 3 closes most things but takeaways with distancing is allowed, level 2 you can dine out with distancing and limits on numbers in stores.


----------



## MoonSong

Good News, today, my parents got their first shot. Hopefully they won't have issues to get the second one in April. I feel relieved and happy for them.


----------



## Garthanos

My nephews covid diagnosis was a false positive so my mother has not been exposed so those are good news of a sort.


----------



## Imaculata

A crazy anti covid group, who call themselves Virus Delussion, managed to get the evening curfew overturned in the Dutch courts this week. So the Dutch government is scrambling to get that curfew extended again.

I am not a fan of the curfew either, but I'd rather not ever be caught on the same side of any Covid related issue as that group of crazy conspiracy nutcases. This is a group that helps spread dangerous misinformation about the virus.

However, I've heard such groups are hardly a rare sight at the moment.


----------



## Zardnaar

Three day lockdown end. One more death from Covid (unrelated to current leak). 

 Was the UK variant looks like they got it early with the contact tracing.

 The boring stuff.


----------



## ccs

Imaculata said:


> A crazy anti covid group, who call themselves Virus Delussion,



Sounds like just the group my barber would like to belong to.  They taking international applications by chance?


----------



## Thomas Shey

Unfortunately, the covidiots and antivaxers have formed a devil's marriage here.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> Unfortunately, the covidiots and antivaxers have formed a devil's marriage here.




 Thought they were on in the same?


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Thought they were on in the same?




There is some overlap, but no, they are different beasts.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> There is some overlap, but no, they are different beasts.




 True that. 10% don't want vaccine here 20% vaccine shy (maybe take it), 70% plan on taking it.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> True that. 10% don't want vaccine here 20% vaccine shy (maybe take it), 70% plan on taking it.



The last I saw for here were... 40% are begging for a shot in the arm.  40% are not against vaccines in general, but shy about this one for various reasons, and 20% reject the idea.

Luckily, if we reach that 80%, that's enough to reach herd immunity with the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Yeah, there are people who perfectly willing to believe COVID is real, but think vaccines in general or these in particular are harmful.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ya ta hey!









						What the Navajo Nation’s successful COVID vaccine rollout can teach the rest of the country
					

The Navajo Nation is one of the hardest-hit populations in the U.S. when it comes to COVID-19. But a highly successful vaccine rollout is starting to change all that.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Garthanos

Thomas Shey said:


> Unfortunately, the covidiots and antivaxers have formed a devil's marriage here.



yeh they are philosophic peas in a pod, lack willingness to do even the most basic preventative measures to stop horrid diseases over a fundamental distrust in science.


----------



## ccs

Garthanos said:


> yeh they are philosophic peas in a pod, lack willingness to do even the most basic preventative measures to stop horrid diseases over a fundamental distrust in science.



One would think high #s of these types would be among the 1st victims of things like a pandemic.....


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

ccs said:


> One would think high #s of these types would be among the 1st victims of things like a pandemic.....



Pathogens don’t follow movie karma, though.


----------



## Umbran

ccs said:


> One would think high #s of these types would be among the 1st victims of things like a pandemic.....




As we have said, several times over in this thread - covid 19 is the disease where, if you get it, the most likely result is _SOMEONE ELSE DIES_.


----------



## cmad1977

ccs said:


> One would think high #s of these types would be among the 1st victims of things like a pandemic.....




Well... look for videos from nurses in hard hit areas and you’ll hear plenty of stories about people denying their condition on their deathbed.


----------



## cmad1977

Umbran said:


> As we have said, several times over in this thread - covid 19 is the disease where, if you get it, the most likely result is _SOMEONE ELSE DIES_.




This too.


----------



## MoonSong

Ok, this is kind of ridiculous, kind of infuriating, and kind of how can we care anymore. One of the most populated municipalities in the country -which has about the highest death toll- was going to open six vaccination centers. Two opened yesterday, and four more were to be opened today. Everything seemed very organized and planned, the they made an announcement at the literal eleventh hour (a few minutes before midnight!) that well, these extra centers weren't going to be opened. They made the announcement via internet at the time when most people had already gone to sleep to rise early to get in queue or were already there doing queue. Al lot of elder people staying in line at night, in the winter for naught because the ones organizing couldn't be bothered to make official announcements based on reality (They didn't have enough time to train all of the people doing the vaccination).

There is a local saying that translates "I don't even know whether to laugh or to cry anymore..." this applies...


----------



## Thomas Shey

I know in L.A. County they've suffered from the Midwest U.S. weather meaning that the vaccine supplies have temporarily just flat out dried up.  The response to this was to pretty suddenly close all the planned events for same, with some distinct missteps when it came to notifying people.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well USA despite the American media you're not doing that bad relatively speaking it seems with vaccinations. 

Israel seems to be leading the pack, Canada and Europe not doing as well as one would expect. As usual poorer countries screwed.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Well USA despite the American media you're not doing that bad relatively speaking it seems with vaccinations.



We started at a pretty bad point under purchasing for one thing but utter lack of planning up till just a short bit ago...


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Well USA despite the American media you're not doing that bad relatively speaking it seems with vaccinations.




The US, overall to date has administered about 19.5 doses of vaccine per 100 people.  Interestingly, West Virginia seems to be leading the pack, with nearly 26 doses per 100 people.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> The US, overall to date has administered about 19.5 doses of vaccine per 100 people.  Interestingly, West Virginia seems to be leading the pack, with nearly 26 doses per 100 people.



WV how extraordinarily against stereotype.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> WV how extraordinarily against stereotype?




For a bit of a discussion of why...









						Why West Virginia's Winning The Race To Get COVID-19 Vaccine Into Arms
					

To get vaccines into long-term care facilities, West Virginia was the only state to opt out of a federal partnership with CVS and Walgreens. Instead, a network of smaller pharmacies got a jump-start.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> For a bit of a discussion of why...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why West Virginia's Winning The Race To Get COVID-19 Vaccine Into Arms
> 
> 
> To get vaccines into long-term care facilities, West Virginia was the only state to opt out of a federal partnership with CVS and Walgreens. Instead, a network of smaller pharmacies got a jump-start.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org



Thanks not totally trivial reasons. Small enough operation that the government can manage it instead of farming it to corporations.


----------



## BookTenTiger

San Francisco has finally made vaccines available to teachers! I just got my first shot today! I couldn't stop smiling!!!


----------



## Zardnaar

Anywhere do USA state by state per capita breakdown? Want to check some online claims.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Anywhere do USA state by state per capita breakdown? Want to check some online claims.












						See How Vaccinations Are Going in Your County and State
					

See where doses have gone, and who is eligible for a shot in each state.



					www.nytimes.com
				












						How are the COVID-19 vaccine and booster campaigns going in your state?
					

The U.S. is striving to vaccinate as many people as possible against COVID-19 — and keep them up-to-date with boosters. But some states are lagging behind. See how yours is faring.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> See How Vaccinations Are Going in Your County and State
> 
> 
> See where doses have gone, and who is eligible for a shot in each state.
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How are the COVID-19 vaccine and booster campaigns going in your state?
> 
> 
> The U.S. is striving to vaccinate as many people as possible against COVID-19 — and keep them up-to-date with boosters. But some states are lagging behind. See how yours is faring.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org




 Sorry I meant per capita cases/death rate.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Sorry I meant per capita cases/death rate.












						Cumulative COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
					

The Kaiser Family Foundation website provides in-depth information on key health policy issues including Medicaid, Medicare, health reform, global health, HIV/AIDS, health insurance, the uninsured …




					www.kff.org
				












						COVID Data Tracker
					

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.



					covid.cdc.gov
				












						State-by-state look at the number of coronavirus deaths compared to confirmed cases in the U.S.
					

Track the latest numbers on deaths in U.S. states and territories. Updated daily.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Cumulative COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
> 
> 
> The Kaiser Family Foundation website provides in-depth information on key health policy issues including Medicaid, Medicare, health reform, global health, HIV/AIDS, health insurance, the uninsured …
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.kff.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID Data Tracker
> 
> 
> CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
> 
> 
> 
> covid.cdc.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> State-by-state look at the number of coronavirus deaths compared to confirmed cases in the U.S.
> 
> 
> Track the latest numbers on deaths in U.S. states and territories. Updated daily.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com




 Cheers there's a method to my madness.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well checked this guy's claims he is comparing California to Florida. He returned to USA after living in Kyiv Ukraine last 5 years. With side trips to places like Iran. 

 You read about it on the news or watch it but it's a bit different like this. 


 San Francisco

 Miami Dade?

 Basically very similar levels of Covid related deaths and Florida has a much larger population of old people. 

  Outsider looking in California has been inconsistent with the lock downs. The mom and pop type stores are screwed while the bigger ones are fine. I'm guessing help from the state or federal is limited. 

 Florida is doing social distancing from the look of it. Watched some other videos of Venice Beach California. It's just sad you read about it bit harder seeing it.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Zardnaar said:


> Well checked this guy's claims he is comparing California to Florida. He returned to USA after living in Kyiv Ukraine last 5 years. With side trips to places like Iran.
> 
> You read about it on the news or watch it but it's a bit different like this.
> 
> 
> San Francisco
> 
> Miami Dade?
> 
> Basically very similar levels of Covid related deaths and Florida has a much larger population of old people.
> 
> Outsider looking in California has been inconsistent with the lock downs. The mom and pop type stores are screwed while the bigger ones are fine. I'm guessing help from the state or federal is limited.
> 
> Florida is doing social distancing from the look of it. Watched some other videos of Venice Beach California. It's just sad you read about it bit harder seeing it.



It is a rule of mine to not watch YouTube videos of random judgmental strangers.

If you want my experience living in SF, and having a partner who works in Infectious Disease at UCSF, let me know!


----------



## Zardnaar

BookTenTiger said:


> It is a rule of mine to not watch YouTube videos of random judgmental strangers.
> 
> If you want my experience living in SF, and having a partner who works in Infectious Disease at UCSF, let me know!




 He doesn't judge just walks around and let's you form your own opinions. Mostly he talks to people on the street. 

 You had a rally a few weeks ago and can legally shoplift up to $950 of stuff?

 That's why I was checking stuff I googled some other stuff was interested how accurate it is. I don't expect anyone to watch the lot.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Zardnaar said:


> He doesn't judge just walks around and let's you form your own opinions. Mostly he talks to people on the street.
> 
> You had a pro life rally a few weeks ago and can legally shoplift up to $950 of stuff?



I have no idea what you mean by that. Again, I'm not watching a video called "Why SF is SO BAD Now us" and has the words "SAD REALITY" on it.

(By the way, this is the _second _thread that I've seen you posting critical stuff about California. What's the deal Zardnaar???)

I personally did not participate in or hear about a pro life rally, though they do happen in SF. In fact, I once participated in a Women's Rights March that took place one hour after a Pro Life Rally took place. That's what I like about the city!

As for shoplifting? I have no idea! I have not seen anything about that in the local news or heard anything about it myself.

I do know that because SF started self isolating early, we have been able to keep COVID numbers down. And now that even more people are getting vaccinated, businesses are starting to open again to both inside and outside seating. (The local small family-owned restaurants have been doing very well during the pandemic due to all the to-go orders, by the way.)

Anything else you want to know about pandemic life in SF?


----------



## Zardnaar

BookTenTiger said:


> I have no idea what you mean by that. Again, I'm not watching a video called "Why SF is SO BAD Now us" and has the words "SAD REALITY" on it.
> 
> (By the way, this is the _second _thread that I've seen you posting critical stuff about California. What's the deal Zardnaar???)
> 
> I personally did not participate in or hear about a pro life rally, though they do happen in SF. In fact, I once participated in a Women's Rights March that took place one hour after a Pro Life Rally took place. That's what I like about the city!
> 
> As for shoplifting? I have no idea! I have not seen anything about that in the local news or heard anything about it myself.
> 
> I do know that because SF started self isolating early, we have been able to keep COVID numbers down. And now that even more people are getting vaccinated, businesses are starting to open again to both inside and outside seating. (The local small family-owned restaurants have been doing very well during the pandemic due to all the to-go orders, by the way.)
> 
> Anything else you want to know about pandemic life in SF?




  During lockdown I was watching videos on the former USSR, he lived in Ukraine and moved back to the USA and has spent 8 months doing a lot of California videos where he is based. 

 That's why I get a lot of California ones. USSR-Ukraine-Iran-California as that's where he has gone. 

 National news here is also heavily focused on big picture type stuff, Washington Post Politics and ABC whatever the hot topic if the day is. You don't see much person on the street type stuff or architecture except things like NYC skyline. 

 I like the art deco stuff for example don't really get that here at least locally. It's Victorian/Edwardian or post 1969s modernism or whatever it's called. 

 My Europe trip got cancelled due to Covid curious about how various towns and cities around the world work good bad and ugly.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’ve made my appointment for my first c19 vaccination for this coming Tuesday morning.


----------



## Deset Gled

Garthanos said:


> WV how extraordinarily against stereotype.



Of course, last March West Virginia claimed to have the lowest cases of COVID in the country.  The reason for this claim was that they straight up denied and lied about positive cases:









						How one woman fought to get her husband tested while her state was applauded for having no coronavirus | CNN
					

How one woman fought to get her husband tested while her state was applauded for having no coronavirus cases.




					www.cnn.com
				




Given that history, I'm inclined to take any statistics that come out of that state with at least a few grains of salt.


----------



## GreyLord

Umbran said:


> Cumulative COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
> 
> 
> The Kaiser Family Foundation website provides in-depth information on key health policy issues including Medicaid, Medicare, health reform, global health, HIV/AIDS, health insurance, the uninsured …
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.kff.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID Data Tracker
> 
> 
> CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
> 
> 
> 
> covid.cdc.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> State-by-state look at the number of coronavirus deaths compared to confirmed cases in the U.S.
> 
> 
> Track the latest numbers on deaths in U.S. states and territories. Updated daily.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com



Some of those raise more questions for me than they answer...

Such as, it seems odd when comparing the number of cases in Washington and the deaths there to the number of cases in Utah and the Deaths there...it seems...disportionate.

I had understood Washington was doing better than others (such as Idaho or Florida for example) but comparisons seem to indicate that the percentages of deaths in Washington is pretty high comparably (deaths per 100K).  Did one of the maps forget to add a place value (Washington appeared to have something like 340K cases and almost 5K deaths, while Utah had a similar number but only around 1.8K deaths...something seems off to me on that...same with Idaho though they have something closer to Washington numbers, you go right next door and Oregon has a higher percentage of deaths again...I know things can be somewhat random but it seems off.  The West Coast supposedly had better testing than many other places.

Something seems to be going on in the Northern Western portion of the US because deaths per 100K seem to be lower (Idaho, Utah, Montana) and that doesn't make much sense to me.  Statistically, it just seems to raise my eyebrows and I wonder what exactly is going on to make them so immune (they still have deaths, but the percentages seem to be lower to me at a casual glance than elsewhere).  Compared to the South (Georgia, Florida, Alabama and Mississippi) they are absolutely outstanding, like that's where you want to go to avoid dying from this.

Any explanation or ideas of the disparity of death rates.  I can't imagine it's due to testing numbers, as testing is NOT THAT bad in most of those states, and is even considered to be better than others in states close to them (California and Washington are supposed to be doing stellar in their testing efforts compared to the rest of the US for example from what I've heard).

It just seems strange to me looking at the numbers on the charts.

Edit:  Looking at another one of the charts on your links, it brings other questions...the percentage of deaths is all over the place and the crazy thing is that the areas which seem to have better technology and healthcare are some of the ones with the higher death percentages.  Do you think that some of the states are not reporting the deaths correctly or something?  I have no idea what is going on but those percentages go from .5% to almost 3%, which is a crazy wide disparity between states.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> Some of those raise more questions for me than they answer...
> 
> Such as, it seems odd when comparing the number of cases in Washington and the deaths there to the number of cases in Utah and the Deaths there...it seems...disportionate.
> 
> I had understood Washington was doing better than others (such as Idaho or Florida for example) but comparisons seem to indicate that the percentages of deaths in Washington is pretty high comparably (deaths per 100K).  Did one of the maps forget to add a place value (Washington appeared to have something like 340K cases and almost 5K deaths, while Utah had a similar number but only around 1.8K deaths...something seems off to me on that...same with Idaho though they have something closer to Washington numbers, you go right next door and Oregon has a higher percentage of deaths again...I know things can be somewhat random but it seems off.  The West Coast supposedly had better testing than many other places.
> 
> Something seems to be going on in the Northern Western portion of the US because deaths per 100K seem to be lower (Idaho, Utah, Montana) and that doesn't make much sense to me.  Statistically, it just seems to raise my eyebrows and I wonder what exactly is going on to make them so immune (they still have deaths, but the percentages seem to be lower to me at a casual glance than elsewhere).  Compared to the South (Georgia, Florida, Alabama and Mississippi) they are absolutely outstanding, like that's where you want to go to avoid dying from this.
> 
> Any explanation or ideas of the disparity of death rates.  I can't imagine it's due to testing numbers, as testing is NOT THAT bad in most of those states, and is even considered to be better than others in states close to them (California and Washington are supposed to be doing stellar in their testing efforts compared to the rest of the US for example from what I've heard).
> 
> It just seems strange to me looking at the numbers on the charts.
> 
> Edit:  Looking at another one of the charts on your links, it brings other questions...the percentage of deaths is all over the place and the crazy thing is that the areas which seem to have better technology and healthcare are some of the ones with the higher death percentages.  Do you think that some of the states are not reporting the deaths correctly or something?  I have no idea what is going on but those percentages go from .5% to almost 3%, which is a crazy wide disparity between states.




 I'm guessing it's how stats a collected and reported. 

 There's been quite a few places that are poorer doing better than richer places. Apparently Serbia is doing better than the EU. Vietnam and Thailand have done well. 

 Something similar in the states perhaps and demographics. Florida for example is older than most states. 

 Probably a combination of multiple things. International stats are guidelines only something similar between states I'm guessing.


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> Such as, it seems odd when comparing the number of cases in Washington and the deaths there to the number of cases in Utah and the Deaths there...it seems...disportionate.




There are _many_ ways to look at data, and if you are looking across different sources, you must be careful to note what you are looking at from each source.  You get different information depending on whether you look at absolute numbers of cases and deaths, cases and deaths per 100K population, and deaths per case, for example.



GreyLord said:


> I had understood Washington was doing better than others (such as Idaho or Florida for example) but comparisons seem to indicate that the percentages of deaths in Washington is pretty high comparably (deaths per 100K).  Did one of the maps forget to add a place value (Washington appeared to have something like 340K cases and almost 5K deaths, while Utah had a similar number but only around 1.8K deaths...something seems off to me on that...




So, you expected some similarity?  

These states each have different population densities, different income distributions, different cultures, different government responses, and different healthcare availability, all of which should impact case numbers and mortality in different ways.  Now, with that in mind, ask yourself why you expect them to be similar?



GreyLord said:


> I know things can be somewhat random but it seems off.




It is not "random".  It is dependent on many variables.  Not the same thing at all.




GreyLord said:


> The West Coast supposedly had better testing than many other places.
> 
> Something seems to be going on in the Northern Western portion of the US because deaths per 100K seem to be lower (Idaho, Utah, Montana) and that doesn't make much sense to me.




Lower _than what_?  You should always explicitly state what you are comparing to... because often you'll find that what you are really comparing it to is your own expectations - and your expectations aren't worth squat.  Sorry.  Mine aren't worth much either.  Nobody's are.

By the CDC data, you have Washington and Oregon with 64 and 52 deaths per 100K.  Then Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming with around 100 to 130 per 100K.  Then North and South Dakota with 180-210 per 100K.  The numbers sort of rise as you go east from the coast.  Why?  I dunno.  Maybe it is access to healthcare?  Maybe the average income drops as you go from the coast towards the interior?  Maybe the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota set the Dakotas up for a nasty result?  Maybe the government response got worse, or the number of people who chose to wear masks got worse?  

We'd need far more information to pinpoint _WHY_ these things are different. 



GreyLord said:


> It just seems strange to me looking at the numbers on the charts.




Humans invented statistics because our native ability to guess how numbers should be... sucks.  Badly.  Do not trust how it "seems" to you.  Human feelings about such things are strongly based on whether the numbers match some preconceived notion or preferred narrative.  Those notions and narratives probably don't have to have anything to do with the realities of the virus, or varying conditions across a nation of 300 million people.



GreyLord said:


> Do you think that some of the states are not reporting the deaths correctly or something?  I have no idea what is going on but those percentages go from .5% to almost 3%, which is a crazy wide disparity between states.




And I return to... Massachusetts is not a whole lot like Utah.  So, why should the numbers be similar?


----------



## Thomas Shey

Also, note that there's commonly assumed in the medical community to, contrary what some would tell you, under reporting of deaths related to COVID may be common.  Its often hard to tell because cause-of-death reporting is often more art than science when multiple co-morbidities are involved.


----------



## Horwath

Thomas Shey said:


> Also, note that there's commonly assumed in the medical community to, contrary what some would tell you, under reporting of deaths related to COVID may be common.  Its often hard to tell because cause-of-death reporting is often more art than science when multiple co-morbidities are involved.



Hmm, in Croatia it might be the opposite, if you are positive to COVID and you die, most probably it will be marked as cause of death.

We are even running jokes that it is now perfect time to shoot someone as long as they are COVID positive, "acute lead poisoning" might just be marked as co-morbidity.

Add in the complete cluster-frakk with purchasing orders of vaccines and you got a real show going on.

Can't wait enough for my shot so we can end this "#%$"$#"!!


----------



## Garthanos

Thomas Shey said:


> Also, note that there's commonly assumed in the medical community to, contrary what some would tell you, under reporting of deaths related to COVID may be common.  Its often hard to tell because cause-of-death reporting is often more art than science when multiple co-morbidities are involved.



Yeh the easiest right now estimate is to compare expected totals (which are actually pretty predictable) with resultant death totals the difference indicates we are under reporting by about half.... ie if we have reported 500 thousand the actual number is 750 thousand


----------



## GreyLord

Garthanos said:


> Yeh the easiest right now estimate is to compare expected totals (which are actually pretty predictable) with resultant death totals the difference indicates we are under reporting by about half.... ie if we have reported 500 thousand the actual number is 750 thousand



Yes, this is where it gets really wierd at some of the Stats of the States.

Utah for example is the extreme on most of the things posted above...

It has a .5% mortality there?????

Yes, that's big, but I have a REALLY hard time thinking that Massachussetts has 500% or 5X the mortality rate that Utah does.

The initial number may see small, but when taking in the factors something seems REALLY wierd...like MASSIVE under-reporting, refusal to cooperate or to accept cause of death, etc.

Looking at the numbers, that's what I'm afraid some of the states in the US may be doing.  It's why I pointed out Washington and California because I expect, all things even, that they probably are a little more honest and less influenced by what I will say (for the sake of the forum) erroneous uneducated pressure from some very unscientific voice.  Thus, their reporting I think may be a little bit more honest and reliable.  Same with many of the North Eastern states.  

Of course, if this is true and the numbers are masked, how are we even going to know the actual approximate numbers of those that ACTUALLY died from the disease in the US?


----------



## Garthanos

GreyLord said:


> Of course, if this is true and the numbers are masked, how are we even going to know the actual approximate numbers of those that ACTUALLY died from the disease in the US?



which is why I mentioned total deaths which is not dependent on cause of death determined or on most of the influences you mentioned


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> Yes, this is where it gets really wierd at some of the Stats of the States.
> 
> Utah for example is the extreme on most of the things posted above...
> 
> It has a .5% mortality there?????
> 
> Yes, that's big, but I have a REALLY hard time thinking that Massachussetts has 500% or 5X the mortality rate that Utah does.
> 
> The initial number may see small, but when taking in the factors something seems REALLY wierd...like MASSIVE under-reporting, refusal to cooperate or to accept cause of death, etc.
> 
> Looking at the numbers, that's what I'm afraid some of the states in the US may be doing.  It's why I pointed out Washington and California because I expect, all things even, that they probably are a little more honest and less influenced by what I will say (for the sake of the forum) erroneous uneducated pressure from some very unscientific voice.  Thus, their reporting I think may be a little bit more honest and reliable.  Same with many of the North Eastern states.
> 
> Of course, if this is true and the numbers are masked, how are we even going to know the actual approximate numbers of those that ACTUALLY died from the disease in the US?




 The stars are guidelines only.


----------



## Deset Gled

Zardnaar said:


> The stars are guidelines only.



I'm going to pretend this isn't a typo.


----------



## Garthanos

Deset Gled said:


> I'm going to pretend this isn't a typo.



I am insisting it be at least a typo ... with sarcasm a runner up


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> Yeh the easiest right now estimate is to compare expected totals (which are actually pretty predictable) with resultant death totals the difference indicates we are under reporting by about half.... ie if we have reported 500 thousand the actual number is 750 thousand




So.. no.  I mean, you may be able to _blame_ most of that excess on covid, but you cannot rely on much of that excess to be people who actually had the disease.

That overage will include people who were fearful of going to the doctor's office or hospital, didn't get treatment, and died as a result.  It includes people who tried to get treatment, but the overtaxed healthcare system couldn't fully support them at a critical moment.  And people who lost jobs or health insurance, so they couldn't afford medications or nutrition.  It includes people for whom isolation was so bad for them that they turned to drugs and overdosed, or committed suicide.  And goodness knows how many other things.

So, while the existence of covid-19 probably contributed or caused the death in some moral sense, this does not feed into the mortality numbers in terms of your "risk of death if you catch covid".


----------



## Thomas Shey

Horwath said:


> Hmm, in Croatia it might be the opposite, if you are positive to COVID and you die, most probably it will be marked as cause of death.




People claim this in a lot of places.  Once you dig into it, it turns out most such "overcounts" are people outside the medical community that don't understand how co-morbidity listings work (i.e., someone can have heart disease, die of a heart attack, but the COVID is still clearly the culprit because they had the heart disease managed until COVID came along).  This doesn't mean some sloppy bookkeeping isn't sometimes done, but when you see people claiming its a serious factor, take it with a grain of salt).



Horwath said:


> We are even running jokes that it is now perfect time to shoot someone as long as they are COVID positive, "acute lead poisoning" might just be marked as co-morbidity.
> 
> Add in the complete cluster-frakk with purchasing orders of vaccines and you got a real show going on.
> 
> Can't wait enough for my shot so we can end this "#%$"$#"!!




Well, for nearly everyone's shot.  After all, you can have the vaccine and still be a potential spreader, though it'll reduce your viral load.

[As an aside, hey, first time I've seen a Croat gamer anywhere; that's where my mother's family came from, though when she was alive I never paid quite enough attention to know what area thereof).


----------



## Thomas Shey

Garthanos said:


> which is why I mentioned total deaths which is not dependent on cause of death determined or on most of the influences you mentioned




The only thing you need to do there is account for some knock-on effects from the pandemic first, such as the increase in suicides.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> So, while the existence of covid-19 probably contributed or caused the death in some moral sense, this does not feed into the mortality numbers in terms of your "risk of death if you catch covid".



it does not in an an absolute sense because there indeed can be some other causes but we are talking half as many who were identified ... AND with the piss poor testing in the US how many were just not tested and not identified as such... those are likely a significantly larger number.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> it does not in an an absolute sense because there indeed can be some other causes but we are talking half as many who were identified ... AND with the piss poor testing in the US how many were just not tested and not identified as such... those are likely a significantly larger number.




Sure, but... do I need to repeat myself about how human _feelings_ about what the numbers _should_ be are not reliable.  At all?  That we feel they are likely a larger number, we _should not rely on that without evidence_.


----------



## Zardnaar

Deset Gled said:


> I'm going to pretend this isn't a typo.




 Autocorrect stats are only a guideline. Not perfect but don't have anything better so you ye what you've got.


----------



## Garthanos

Thomas Shey said:


> The only thing you need to do there is account for some knock-on effects from the pandemic first, such as the increase in suicides.



suicide rate in my state and nationally went down ....


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Sure, but... do I need to repeat myself about how human _feelings_ about what the numbers _should_ be are not reliable.  At all?  That we feel they are likely a larger number, we _should not rely on that without evidence_.



I did not say why it was likely... we do have more than feelings about that. For instance suicide rates where I live went from 14.7 to 14.3... from 2019 to 2020 and we can gather evidence the us overall suicide rate is also down continuing the trend from 2019 being lower than 2018. So while it remains possible that more people did commit suicide than might have without covid it also seems likely its not some huge spike nor responsible for the increase in expected deaths.


----------



## Garthanos

Basically I have seen a doctor go and debunk most of the projected alternative causes for the rise in deaths compared to the expected.   We had expected rates by those causes too giving a baseline change there.  (with overwhelmed hospitals still being mostly covid).

However I have been reading right now our cases are dropping significantly after the first of the year at a rate that was not expected so something else is happening too.


----------



## Garthanos

positive testing rates from early january till now in a local county ... they were expecting a rise after the first from what I recall.


----------



## Garthanos

derp


----------



## Eltab

Speculation: better protection of most vulnerable + large (but still not well-defined) number of previous asymptomatic cases + deploying vaccine(s) = fewer "defenseless targets" for the virus, so it is slowing down because it has to _work_ to claim each 'new' victim.


----------



## Garthanos

Eltab said:


> Speculation: better protection of most vulnerable + large (but still not well-defined) number of previous asymptomatic cases + deploying vaccine(s) = fewer "defenseless targets" for the virus, so it is slowing down because it has to _work_ to claim each 'new' victim.



I am just hoping that trend keeps it up.


----------



## Zardnaar

Announcement 9pm on a Saturday night after cabinet has had emergency meeting not good. You know it's bad when it's Jacinda and Director General of Health. 

Edit. 









						Live: Auckland moves to Covid-19 alert level 3 for seven days, rest of NZ to Level 2
					

Covid-19 alert level 3 restrictions in Auckland come into force for seven days from 6am Sunday. There are two new community Covid cases - and several locations where the virus could have spread.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Community spread unknown source. 

7 day lockdown for Auckland level 3. 
7 day level 2 rest of country.

 Rules not followed.


----------



## Dioltach

Zardnaar said:


> Rules not followed.



In the Netherlands, not following the rules is the norm. And then people want to sue the government to ease the restrictions. If they want to sue the government for anything, it should be for not being tough enough and dragging the whole thing out.

(After spending nearly my whole life here, I've discovered that a key element in the Dutch mentality is "I'm a firm believer in rules, but when they do and do not apply to me personally is for me to decide.")


----------



## Zardnaar

Dioltach said:


> In the Netherlands, not following the rules is the norm. And then people want to sue the government to ease the restrictions. If they want to sue the government for anything, it should be for not being tough enough and dragging the whole thing out.
> 
> (After spending nearly my whole life here, I've discovered that a key element in the Dutch mentality is "I'm a firm believer in rules, but when they do and do not apply to me personally is for me to decide.")




 That's human/ hypocrisy. 

 Think it works that way all around the world.


----------



## MarkB

I got my first jab with the Pfizer vaccine today at lunchtime. It was the first time I'd actually driven in months - I had to call the AA out in the morning to get my car going because the battery was flat. The NHS clinic was well organised, with plentiful staff shepherding everyone down the line through vaccination to a 15-minute wait on well-spaced chairs and then back out a different exit. No significant side effects so far.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mom got her second inoculation today.  MUCH bigger crowd than when she got the first one on Superbowl Sunday. And we were *still* back in our car 45 minutes later,

I’m sorta looking forward to using that same facility Tuesday morning when I go for my first shot.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Mom got her second inoculation today.  MUCH bigger crowd than when she got the first one on Superbowl Sunday. And we were *still* back in our car 45 minutes later,
> 
> I’m sorta looking forward to using that same facility Tuesday morning when I go for my first shot.




  Americans doing a lot better than a lot of countries with vaccinations.


----------



## Zardnaar

More information. 









						Covid-19: Angry Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern tongue lashes Covid-19 cases for 'letting down' team of five million
					

Covid-19 rule breakers have let down the "team of five million", an increasingly angry Jacinda Ardern says.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 1.6 million on people locked down because one person decided to sleep with one of of the Covid cases from qurantine leak. Knowing they had Covid. 

 Then got it himself and spent the week going to work, gym and restaurants while infectious. 

 67 million dollars a day to lock down Auckland for 7 days. UK variant. 

 May be the most expensive individual dumbass in the nations history.

 Kia friggin kaha.

 Edit. Context. They thought they had unknown community spread. It's been linked back to previous leak via undisclosed contact. 

 If it was disclosed they probably wouldn't lock down.


----------



## Janx

Zardnaar said:


> More information.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19: Angry Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern tongue lashes Covid-19 cases for 'letting down' team of five million
> 
> 
> Covid-19 rule breakers have let down the "team of five million", an increasingly angry Jacinda Ardern says.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 1.6 million on people locked down because one person decided to sleep with one of of the Covid cases from qurantine leak. Knowing they had Covid.
> 
> Then got it himself and spent the week going to work, gym and restaurants while infectious.
> 
> 67 million dollars a day to lock down Auckland for 7 days. UK variant.
> 
> May be the most expensive individual dumbass in the nations history.
> 
> Kia friggin kaha.
> 
> Edit. Context. They thought they had unknown community spread. It's been linked back to previous leak via undisclosed contact.
> 
> If it was disclosed they probably wouldn't lock down.



charge that guy for the expense and medical bills then.   if he can't afford it, harvest his organs for science or a lifetime of full time community service.


----------



## Zardnaar

Janx said:


> charge that guy for the expense and medical bills then.   if he can't afford it, harvest his organs for science or a lifetime of full time community service.




Going by socialedia hung drawn and quartered. 

 Problem is if you punishm people they're not going to come forward or co operate.


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> 1.6 million on people locked down because one person decided to sleep with one of of the Covid cases from qurantine leak. Knowing they had Covid.
> 
> Then got it himself ...



In this guy's defense:
One of Dr. Fauci's early foot-in-mouth moments (last April), he suggested that a one-night-stand with a complete stranger would have an acceptably low risk of catching Covid yourself.

End tongue-in-cheek.


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> In this guy's defense:
> One of Dr. Fauci's early foot-in-mouth moments (last April), he suggested that a one-night-stand with a complete stranger would have an acceptably low risk of catching Covid yourself.
> 
> End tongue-in-cheek.




 Our version of Fayci has become a sex symbol. 

 And his mug is turning up on posters etc.

 Wouldn't be surprised if he wins sexiest man if the year type award and they stick a Sir in front of his name.


----------



## Hussar

What the ....? 









						Japan asks China to stop anal COVID-19 tests on Japanese citizens
					

The Japanese government has requested China not to subject Japanese citizens entering the country to anal COVID-19 tests after receiving complaints of "psychological distress" from some of them, according to the top government spokesman




					english.kyodonews.net


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> What the ....?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Japan asks China to stop anal COVID-19 tests on Japanese citizens
> 
> 
> The Japanese government has requested China not to subject Japanese citizens entering the country to anal COVID-19 tests after receiving complaints of "psychological distress" from some of them, according to the top government spokesman
> 
> 
> 
> 
> english.kyodonews.net




 It's China humiliation of Japanese is probably fun.


----------



## Hussar

I’m kinda wondering how you test for a respiratory infection with an anal swab. I’ll admit to talking out my ass but sheesh.


----------



## billd91

Hussar said:


> I’m kinda wondering how you test for a respiratory infection with an anal swab. I’ll admit to talking out my ass but sheesh.



Same reasons places are finding that testing sewage is a good indicator of COVID-19 spread in communities.








						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.




					www.cdc.gov
				




On the other hand, it's kind of rich Japan complaining about the treatment of Japanese citizens in China given the utterly ferocious human rights abuses the Japanese army inflicted on China in the 20th Century.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> I’m kinda wondering how you test for a respiratory infection with an anal swab. I’ll admit to talking out my ass but sheesh.




Nausea and vomiting are not uncommon symptoms - the virus is only mostly a respiratory disease.   Watching sewage output has been a decent tool in prediction areas that will have a spike in cases.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> On the other hand, it's kind of rich Japan complaining about the treatment of Japanese citizens in China given the utterly ferocious human rights abuses the Japanese army inflicted on China in the 20th Century.




Yeah, but dude, the people they are swabbing now were not responsible for those acts - most of them weren't alive at the time.  Continuing grudges for generations is not a viable option with a planetary population nearing 8 billion


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> Yeah, but dude, the people they are swapping now were not responsible for those acts - most of them weren't alive at the time.  Continuing grudges for generations is not a vialbe option with a planetary population nearing 8 billion



Yeah, but dude, successive Japanese governments have been consistently resistant to fully acknowledging their historical behavior - so Japanese government complaints are still pretty rich. They could learn to use a bit more humility in relationships with other Asian countries who suffered under IJA/IJN boots.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> Yeah, but dude, successive Japanese governments have been consistently resistant to fully acknowledging their historical behavior- so Japanese government complaints are still pretty rich. They could learn to use a bit more humility in relationships with other Asian countries who suffered under IJA/IJN boots.




This is as far as I will go on this topic, due to politics:  China's own human rights history does not support them getting shirty about these things.  People in glass houses should not throw stones... or shove swabs where the moon don't shine.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> This is as far as I will go on this topic, due to politics:  China's own human rights history does not support them getting shirty about these things.  People in glass houses should not throw stones... or shove swabs where the moon don't shine.




 I won't go into any great detail but it's China. They probably have special tests for the Japanese. 

 I'm guessing it's a humiliation thing.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> I'm guessing it's a humiliation thing.




Yeah.  We get that.  I'm just dispelling the idea that China's got any moral high ground to blame the Japanese for not apologizing.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Yeah.  We get that.  I'm just dispelling the idea that China's got any moral high ground to blame the Japanese for not apologizing.




 It's China they don't care about the moral high ground except in internal propaganda.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> It's China they don't care about the moral high ground except in internal propaganda.



Yeah.  I was talking to someone here, Zardnaar.  But thanks.


----------



## Umbran

Meanwhile, the Governor of Texas announcing that he's doing away with all restrictions and the mask mandate.

Texas, being all the kinds of stupid at once.  Sorry, Danny.  Get vaccinated quick, you're gonna need it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Just had that conversation with h my friend in Houston. From March 10. 

 Not sure on current situation in Texas by that ICU beds, numbers etc.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Meanwhile, the Governor of Texas announcing that he's doing away with all restrictions and the mask mandate.
> 
> Texas, being all the kinds of stupid at once.  Sorry, Danny.  Get vaccinated quick, you're gonna need it.



Accurate description, to be sure.. This is testing my personal resolve against wishing ill on my fellow humans...

That said, I DID get Pfizer injection #1 this morning.  Total time out of my day, including travel: 90 minutes.  So far, the injection site on my arm feels like a toddler tried to punch my arm.  I’ve had worse reactions from flu shots.  Hell...I’ve Id worse reactions from ALLERGY shots.  

(So far.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Accurate description, to be sure.. This is testing my personal resolve against wishing ill on my fellow humans...
> 
> That said, I DID get Pfizer injection #1 this morning.  Total time out of my day, including travel: 90 minutes.  So far, the injection site on my arm feels like a toddler tried to punch my arm.  I’ve had worse reactions from flu shots.  Hell...I’ve Id worse reactions from ALLERGY shots.
> 
> (So far.)




I think that's the one I want. 

 What I'll get is whatever is available when I go I suppose.


----------



## MarkB

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That said, I DID get Pfizer injection #1 this morning.  Total time out of my day, including travel: 90 minutes.  So far, the injection site on my arm feels like a toddler tried to punch my arm.  I’ve had worse reactions from flu shots.  Hell...I’ve Id worse reactions from ALLERGY shots.



Yeah, since I had the Pfizer jab on Saturday my side effects have been relatively mild. I have an ache around the injection site that _technically_ exists, in that I'm aware of it when I choose to take note of it, but most of the time it's so mild I don't notice it.

What I have noticed are periodic headaches. For the last couple of days they've come around like clockwork - I'm absolutely fine through the morning, but around 1:30-2pm it starts kicking in - headache and feverish feeling, but no elevated temperature.

But it's nothing that some paracetamol can't handle, and today was milder than yesterday, so I don't expect it will persist much longer.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I have a super mild headache that may or may not be relar to my vaccination.  It feels exactly like a mild version of the ones I get from my allergies, and I’ve been sneezing snd sniffling more this past week.  Heck, I sneezed so hard before breakfast this morning I wrenched my shoulder.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

From an article about Gov. Abbott’s declaration:



> On a related note, Houston, Texas' largest city, is the one city in the United States to have reported finding at least one case of every known variant of the coronavirus, which are believed to be more transmissible and have experts on the alert for another uptick in cases as they become the dominant sources of infection. It's unlikely Houston is actually alone in this regard, but it's still cause for concern.
> 
> Texas is also lagging behind in vaccinating its population, which is the second largest in the nation. Only Utah and Georgia have slower per capita vaccination rates.




The article also noted Mississippi beat us to the punch on ending sensible, science-driven precautions.


----------



## GreyLord

It looks like it could be a LOOONG time until I get a vaccination.  It looks like I am lower on the lists (no health issues that flag me for being a priority, not over 65...yet...etc).  Meanwhile, my area hasn't had many people wearing masks or doing social distancing for a while.  You wouldn't even know that there was a pandemic going on from how most are acting except that the death rate has risen significantly for older folks over the past year.  It makes me nervous even going to the store...and I have to go to the store every so often.

Wish I could get the vaccine sooner...but I expect that it's going to be a while at the rate it's currently occurring.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> I won't go into any great detail but it's China. They probably have special tests for the Japanese.
> 
> I'm guessing it's a humiliation thing.



Oh, no, they're even handed about it.  American citizens get the same treatment.  









						China denies requiring anal swabs from US diplomats
					

US media claims diplomats were made to undergo anal swabs to test for coronavirus.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Oh, no, they're even handed about it.  American citizens get the same treatment.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China denies requiring anal swabs from US diplomats
> 
> 
> US media claims diplomats were made to undergo anal swabs to test for coronavirus.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com




 Yeah but America is another country on the CCP poo list. 

 Are they doing it to everyone or just the usual suspects (Australia, Taiwan, USA, Japan etc)?


----------



## Umbran

Folks, Chinese swabbing policy's not really the point of the thread.  Can we move on, please and thank you?


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> I think that's the one I want.
> 
> What I'll get is whatever is available when I go I suppose.



Pfizer or Moderna are probably the best ones though both take two shots.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Pfizer or Moderna are probably the best ones though both take two shots.




 The government put money into 4 vaccines and preordered them as well March last year. 

 All 4 came up though so theoretically they have an over supply. 

 Ordering and receiving are two different things though. Found that out the hard way last March but minimised it before things fell apart ( panic buying etc).


----------



## Zardnaar

More D&D related than Covid. 

 One if the local DMs is organizing a D&D event for school kids on Facebook. $15 usd a night. Her ideas kinda cool. 





__





						Quarantine Island Kamau Taurua – Quarantine Island Kamau Taurua Community (Incorporated) – Kaitiaki of Quarantine Island Kamau Taurua
					






					quarantineisland.org.nz
				




Used in the last pandemic. Seems thematically appropriate.

 Because of Covid they're encouraging people to support local businesses in the tourism sector. 

 I want to go play some D&D there.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> The government put money into 4 vaccines and preordered them as well March last year.
> 
> All 4 came up though so theoretically they have an over supply.
> 
> Ordering and receiving are two different things though. Found that out the hard way last March but minimised it before things fell apart ( panic buying etc).



Here they didnt really put money into any vaccine because you know ....


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Here they didnt really put money into any vaccine because you know ....




 55.5 million vaccinated according to Washington Post. 

 Doing better than a lot of places. Barely started here but don't really need much atm and that's more of a supply issue. 

 I would be amazed if I get one in the next 3 months, surprised if faster than 6 months and disappointed if it's not done by January. 

 But other countries need it en masse sooner. Probably cause other problems as well.


----------



## Istbor

Have been off the site for a couple weeks. My girlfriend passed, not COVID but was in the hospital. Had been lucky through work to get my shot earlier than expected. 

Second Pfizer shot punched back a bit. Was sick for a day. Had a fever and spent some time shivering uncontrollably. Though was told it hits younger different than older recipients. For my parents the first shot was harder on them then the second.


----------



## billd91

My condolences, Istbor.


----------



## ccs

Some good news here in Ohio (USA).  
Our governor just opened vaccinations up to those 50+ (as well as some others with assorted medical conditions, etc).  Means this Thur. I can start looking for a vaccination.


----------



## Zardnaar

Government has secured a big order if the pfizer vaccine enough for everyone in the country. 

 Side effect of the Covid bailouts is the housing crisis has gone from terrible to dumpster fire. My young cousins rent is double some friends in Europe, a house in one of our worst suburbs went for close to half a million USD. 

 And I live in the cheap part of the country.   Close to 20% rises or 40% in specific areas.  My brother can sell his house and buy one freehold in San Francisco or LA.

 No Covid since May locally but the young ones gonna be homeless at this rate.

 World's most popular leader useless domestically. Sit back and eat more jellybeans.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> No Covid since May locally but the young ones gonna be homeless at this rate.



damn


----------



## GreyLord

Housing prices are rising at an absolute insane rate all over in many nations, Europe and the US included.  I'm looking at it and cannot figure out why it's rising so rapidly and vastly in the past year.

Houses are almost 2x the price in my area from last year.  My property taxes are starting to be of a concern to me, if housing continues to rise at this rate I won't even be able to afford the property taxes where I live in a decade!

Have no idea what I'd do then.  It feels like a terrible way to kick out long term residents.

I think I blame uninhibited greed on why they are rising like this, because I have no other explanation.


----------



## JEB

GreyLord said:


> I think I blame uninhibited greed on why they are rising like this, because I have no other explanation.



I believe it's because the demand has skyrocketed, with folks no longer wanting/needing to live in cities and moving elsewhere. Houses are getting snapped up left and right in my area, despite them being much more expensive than a few years ago...


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> Housing prices are rising at an absolute insane rate all over in many nations, Europe and the US included.  I'm looking at it and cannot figure out why it's rising so rapidly and vastly in the past year.
> 
> Houses are almost 2x the price in my area from last year.  My property taxes are starting to be of a concern to me, if housing continues to rise at this rate I won't even be able to afford the property taxes where I live in a decade!
> 
> Have no idea what I'd do then.  It feels like a terrible way to kick out long term residents.
> 
> I think I blame uninhibited greed on why they are rising like this, because I have no other explanation.




 We had highest population growth rate in OECD. 

 With Covid alot of NZers decided to return home bringing families 100000 last year. Right before Covid 25000 people in a month. 

Share markets all over the place, low interest rates and free money to borrow essentially. 

 Government essentially guaranteed loans with bailout and perfect storm. And a few thousand either stuck here or they don't want to go home.

 10000 rentals 73% of them in 3 locations, Covid dodgers, investors, high population growth,  red tape etc perfect storm.


----------



## billd91

JEB said:


> I believe it's because the demand has skyrocketed, with folks no longer wanting/needing to live in cities and moving elsewhere. Houses are getting snapped up left and right in my area, despite them being much more expensive than a few years ago...



Part of the issue is demand, driven by long years of low interest rates in the wake of the Great Recession, part of it is speculation (housing flippers), and part of it is politics.


----------



## BookTenTiger

billd91 said:


> Part of the issue is demand, driven by long years of low interest rates in the wake of the Great Recession, part of it is speculation (housing flippers), and part of it is politics.



We got to actually negotiate for a lower rent in our SF apartment because of all the folks moving.


----------



## Hussar

Canada and NZ are both in the same massive housing bubble.  It will burst, eventually, but, for the forseeable future?  Wow, whodathunk that my 1300 square foot house that I'm in the process of buying here in Japan would actually be on the cheap end of the scale.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Canada and NZ are both in the same massive housing bubble.  It will burst, eventually, but, for the forseeable future?  Wow, whodathunk that my 1300 square foot house that I'm in the process of buying here in Japan would actually be on the cheap end of the scale.




 Difference is the government/reserve bank has essentially guaranteed it.


----------



## Maxperson

BookTenTiger said:


> We got to actually negotiate for a lower rent in our SF apartment because of all the folks moving.



Down from 10k a month to 9500?    That city is spensive.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Maxperson said:


> Down from 10k a month to 9500?    That city is spensive.



Insanely expensive. My partner is a doctor at UCSF so it's where we live!

That said, you cannot beat the access to amazing food.


----------



## Maxperson

BookTenTiger said:


> Insanely expensive. My partner is a doctor at UCSF so it's where we live!
> 
> That said, you cannot beat the access to amazing food.



I know.  The corporate office for my wife's work was down there for a while.  She used to travel there for executive meetings and loved all the good food places.  I've always wanted to go to that floating restaurant at the pier, but the one time we had reservations it started raining pretty hard and we just took off.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Maxperson said:


> I know.  The corporate office for my wife's work was down there for a while.  She used to travel there for executive meetings and loved all the good food places.  I've always wanted to go to that floating restaurant at the pier, but the one time we had reservations it started raining pretty hard and we just took off.



If you know the right areas you can get lunch for under $5.00. There's a Chinese bakery where I get two mushroom chicken buns and a black sesame bun for dessert for $3.80.

Of course, I have to buy a cheap lunch because half my paycheck goes to rent!


----------



## Zardnaar

BookTenTiger said:


> If you know the right areas you can get lunch for under $5.00. There's a Chinese bakery where I get two mushroom chicken buns and a black sesame bun for dessert for $3.80.
> 
> Of course, I have to buy a cheap lunch because half my paycheck goes to rent!




 Cheapest lunch here is around $3.50 usd. 

 That's a pizza from dominos or pizza hut or a piece of fish and some chips. Maybe a pie. 

 Double that for McDonald's combo.

 Assuming you don't make it. My lunch normally around a dollar I suppose. If I buy it $10 usd.


----------



## Zardnaar

Extreme case here. Side effect of Covid and not bailout. 









						Wellington's median house price soars to $1.1m, while Porirua jumps by $273,000 in one month
					

For first home buyers in Porirua that missed out a new home last month, buying has just got more than a quarter of a million dollars tougher.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 House prices up by $273000 in a month. 

 It's also nationwide so unlike America you can really relocate anywhere else. There's bad, worse and terrible.

 Think prices but a million dollars in some snakkcuty of around 50k.

 Government didn't outright say it but they basically guaranteed house prices wouldn't fall and they were already bad pre Covid.


----------



## Dioltach

Here in the Netherlands there are a number of reasons why property prices are rising so fast.

The first is that interest rates are low. Banks are eager to lend money, because otherwise they have to pay interest on it to the ECB. So although the rules for borrowing are stricter than they have been, once you have a loan it's much more affordable. At the same time, people are looking for safe places to put their cash. Savings essentially lose you money: even without negative interest rates, inflation means that your money loses value (and despite the ECB's idea that low interest rates will encourage people to spend more and boost the economy, people are hoarding their cash because of the uncertainty that this creates). So real estate is a guaranteed way to make your money work for you.

Another problem here is that there's a shortage of available homes. Not only is the population growing, and like I said more and more people are buying real estate as a long-term investment, younger people apparently all want to live alone, not with a partner. So this effectively doubles the number of first-time buyers and renters, so twice the demand for a dwindling supply.

On another note, more related to the actual topic of the thread: the Janssen vaccine (Johnson & Johnson) was developed a stone's through away from my house. Less than a kilometre as the crow flies. And another company almost next door to it is producing the Oxford vaccine. Can I claim credit for them?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

It’s still not clear why, but the UK strain of C19 is proving to be deadlier than most of the other mutations.  The GOOD news is that this strain seems to be just as vulnerable to the vaccines as the original virus.

People infected with the coronavirus variant found in the UK are up to 64% more likely to die than those with other strains


----------



## Zardnaar

Paris heading into a month long lockdown. 









						Paris goes into lockdown as COVID-19 variant rampages
					

France imposed a month-long lockdown on Paris and parts of the north after a faltering vaccine rollout and spread of highly contagious coronavirus variants forced President Emmanuel Macron to shift course.




					www.reuters.com
				




Brazil now number 1 for most daily cases.


----------



## GreyLord

I got my first shot of the vaccine today.  Another one of my gaming group got their first shot last Wednesday.  After we get our second shot that will be two ready for in person, but still have several more to go before we can all get together.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

I just got the Johnson and Johnson Vaccine today. I feel so relieved and happy. This has been a hard year. I hope everyone stays safe and is able to get their shot(s) when they become available to them.


----------



## Maxperson

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I just got the Johnson and Johnson Vaccine today. I feel so relieved and happy. This has been a hard year. I hope everyone stays safe and is able to get their shot(s) when they become available to them.



My wife and I got our first Pfizer shots during this last week.


----------



## CapnZapp

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I just got the Johnson and Johnson Vaccine today. I feel so relieved and happy. This has been a hard year. I hope everyone stays safe and is able to get their shot(s) when they become available to them.



Where I live it's likely another two month's wait before I can rejoin society, so heartfelt congrats. At least the J&J vaccine (or the Janssen vaccine as it will be known locally) was approved the other day.


----------



## Zardnaar

Vaccines just started locally two days ago. 









						Getting a jab at the mall: Dunedin Covid-19 vaccination centre opened
					

And on the seventh day, the first southern Covid-19 vaccination centre opened. In just a week, from planning to the start of business, Southern...




					www.odt.co.nz
				




 They've hired a store in mall with cardboard cubicles. Supply is main problem. Hoi polloi probably won't be able to get any until June or so.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

My wife and I just got our first Pfizer shot. I will be glad to feel less anxiety on the rare times I'm out in the world, and eventually get to go out and do things again.


----------



## Mallus

We got our first doses of the Moderna vaccine yesterday. So by mid-May most of my friends will be fully vaccinated. Plans can resume for the 50th birthday party for my friend-since-high school who will turn 51 before it happens. Maybe play an in-person session of D&D!

Vague vacation plans have already been discussed and plans to get tickets for the Met's Akhnaten in the Spring of 2022. My wife & I aren't really in any rush to rush out and do things. We'll see close friends, travel locally, wait and what happens with the variants. We'll feel more comfortable out and about once more of the country (and world) is vaccinated.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A new vaccine is entering human trials.  If effective, it’s main strength could be it’s created using a very cheap process that can be used even in lower-tech countries.  This would mean a vaccine that would be cheap to produce in the billions of doses- potentially key in getting the bulk of humanity their first vaccinations AND a potent weapon if C19 becomes endemic, requiring periodic booster shots.









						Researchers Are Hatching a Low-Cost Coronavirus Vaccine
					

A new vaccine for COVID-19 that is entering clinical trials in Brazil, Mexico, Thailand and Vietnam could change how the world fights the pandemic. The vaccine, called NVD-HXP-S, is the first in clinical trials to use a new molecular design that is widely expected to create more potent...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

With the phased rollout of vaccines in Massachusetts, roughly a million people became eligible to get the shot yesterday.

The state has a program for pre-registering for an appointment at one of their mass vaccinations sites1, so everyone knows that eventually, they can get a shot.  But that queue is awful long.  So, predictably, the Vaccination Appointment Hunger Games begin.  Obsessive refreshing of websites, twitter feeds devoted to alerting when 10 appointment slots open up in a doctor's office across the state, and all.  Intense competition for small numbers of slots as they open up...

But then, social media _actually does its darned job_, for once.  My wife posts, "Okay, so now my husband is looking for an appointment..."  Within minutes, a friend we haven't seen in ages pings us that a pediatric center nearby has been missed by all the aggregation sites, and that it has a ton of appointments available.  And, voila, I have an appointment for this weekend.


----------



## Whizbang Dustyboots

Yep, I got vaccinated after a trade group I follow on Twitter said my job now qualifies. I had an appointment set up less than half an hour later and received my vaccine 13 hours after seeing that tweet.


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> But then, social media _actually does its darned job_, for once.  My wife posts, "Okay, so now my husband is looking for an appointment..."  Within minutes, a friend we haven't seen in ages pings us that a *pediatric center* nearby has been missed by all the aggregation sites, and that it has a ton of appointments available.  And, voila, I have an appointment for this weekend.



And if you're a good boy, you'll get a sucker after getting your immunization.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

billd91 said:


> And if you're a good boy, you'll get a sucker after getting your immunization.



Which is what _actually_ contains the mind control devices...


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Which is what _actually_ contains the mind control devices...




"Device" may be a bit inaccurate.  After all, as they say, there's a sucker born every minute...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’m old enough to remember when banks gave out suckers to kids, probably to exert pressure on parents to be loyal customers.  I was one of those kids, and _definitely _told my parents where to bank* so I know they’re a potent mind control technology. 





* based in part on the quality of the suckers.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m old enough to remember when banks gave out suckers to kids, probably to exert pressure on parents to be loyal customers.  I was one of those kids, and _definitely _told my parents where to bank* so I know they’re a potent mind control technology.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> * based in part on the quality of the suckers.



If they wanted ot convince the parents, instead of the kid, the bank would give them a toaster


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m old enough to remember when banks gave out suckers to kids, probably to exert pressure on parents to be loyal customers.  I was one of those kids, and _definitely _told my parents where to bank* so I know they’re a potent mind control technology.




I'm old enough that I have trouble remembering the last time I physically walked into a bank.

Or maybe it's that it was sometime before COVID, and all of the before-time gets hazy.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


> I'm old enough that I have trouble remembering the last time I physically walked into a bank.
> 
> Or maybe it's that it was sometime before COVID, and all of the before-time gets hazy.



I stil go into banks on occasion because I’m a lazy goof who doesn’t like to carry change...or sort it later.  So, if nothing else, I use their automated coin sorting machines.

(We also have a safe deposit box, but don’t visit it all that often.)

I’m also not a fan of drive-throughs of any sort, so if I have ANY business that requires my presence at the bank, I’m going in, more likely than not,


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> If they wanted ot convince the parents, instead of the kid, the bank would give them a toaster




In the post-Battlestar Galactica world, that becomes interesting....


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

As reported earlier, the AstraZenica vaccine had some dangerous reaction problems that resulted in some countries halting its use while they figured out what was going on.  They eventually found a way to _treat _but not prevent the reactions.  Now they know that the reactions are caused by a rare form of blood clotting, but not WHY the vaccine is causing those clots.  Still, with 44 cases out of 9 million doses administered, the rewards outweigh the risks, and studies are ongoing to reduce that risk as much as possible.









						Clear link between AstraZeneca vaccine and rare blood clots in brain, EMA official tells paper
					

There is a link between AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine and very rare blood clots in the brain but the possible causes are still unknown, a senior official for the European Medicines Agency (EMA) said in an interview published on Tuesday.  However, the EMA later said in a statement that its...




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## CleverNickName

billd91 said:


> And if you're a good boy, you'll get a sucker after getting your immunization.



It's true!  I got a sucker AND a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles bandage for my first dose of the vaccine.  (I had to ask for both, though.)


----------



## Garthanos

CleverNickName said:


> It's true!  I got a sucker AND a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles bandage for my first dose of the vaccine.  (I had to ask for both, though.)



all I got was a bandage and not even a sense a needle entered... ie damn tiny needle and no nerves hit... also no symptoms.


----------



## Umbran

I actually have stickers to give to whatever healthcare provider I'm dealing with when I get my shot.


----------



## Zardnaar

Government announced the trans Tasman bubble yesterday. 









						Australia and New Zealand to start quarantine-free travel
					

Both nations have contained Covid outbreaks and maintained very low or near-zero infection rates.



					www.bbc.com
				



 Basically qurantine free travel with Australia and NZ. Just in time for ANZAC day. 

 Surge in bookings in Queenstown








						Australians quick to book Queenstown accommodation ahead of trans-Tasman bubble
					

South Island businesses are rejoicing over news the trans-Tasman bubble will soon be opening.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Talk of Pacific bubble as well basically opening the borders to the South Pacific islands (Fiji, Samoa, Cook Islands etc).


----------



## MoonSong

Happy news, more and more people in my life are getting vaccinated. Sad news, I've just learned today that a teacher (and Friend) passed two weeks ago. This thing keeps getting worse by the day. 

Oh yeah, also turns out that the sanitary emergency is about to cause an hydric crisis in the Capital City. The water supply is enough to sustain the population, but not the population in sanitary emergency mode. All of the extra hand-washing, laundry and disinfection is consuming way more water than is available...


----------



## Zardnaar

Trans Tasman travel bubble opens tonight. Border reopens partially in 3 minutes. 


 Basically qurantine free travel both ways between Australia and New Zealand. 

One week to ANZAC day as well. No international flights into Queenstown for 387 days.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Good luck!


----------



## Zardnaar

Reunions, honeymooners, stranded people returning home.









						Live: Trans-Tasman bubble opens between NZ and Australia - tearful reunions expected
					

Emotions were high as Australians and New Zealanders made use of the first day of the trans-Tasman bubble. Look back on RNZ's live coverage here.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Garthanos

had my second vaccine shot no symptomatics on this one either...


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> had my second vaccine shot no symptomatics on this one either...




Good on both counts!

I had my first a week and a half or so back.  My arm ached a little.  A couple hours later, I felt what I can only call lassitude.  Every part of me was _heavy_.  I took a nap.  When I woke, I took some acetaminophen.  An hour or so after that I was basically fine.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Good on both counts!
> 
> I had my first a week and a half or so back.  My arm ached a little.  A couple hours later, I felt what I can only call lassitude.  Every part of me was _heavy_.  I took a nap.  When I woke, I took some acetaminophen.  An hour or so after that I was basically fine.



I did not even count the slight arm ache but no energy loss no general aches no nothing to speak of , she didnt magically miss all nerves like the first nurse managed.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

One of my cousins got his first shot today- don’t know which one- and apparently, it‘s hitting him hard.  Probably staying home from work tomorrow at the very least.


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> One of my cousins got his first shot today- don’t know which one- and apparently, it‘s hitting him hard.  Probably staying home from work tomorrow at the very least.



From what I have read that may be "good news" as that may mean your cousin really needed it and its doing it's thing.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I agree, but I also fear it may make him gunshy for the followup.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Good on both counts!
> 
> I had my first a week and a half or so back.  My arm ached a little.  A couple hours later, I felt what I can only call lassitude.  Every part of me was _heavy_.  I took a nap.  When I woke, I took some acetaminophen.  An hour or so after that I was basically fine.



After getting my first shot, last week, I felt absolutely nothing for that day. The following morning it felt like I had a muscle strain in my shoulder. Lifting my arm to shoulder height, or above, made it ache. Lasted roughly 3 days and no other symptoms.


----------



## Janx

Second shot done a couple days ago.  No effects other than slightly sore where they stabbed me.


----------



## NotAYakk

Getting my shot tomorrow.

In response to the vaccine export bans, I'm wondering if countries should simply stop respecting patent protection for any and all medicines not made within the country as a matter of national security.

You can even scale it.  Like 50% of the medicine has to be made domestically to have patent protection with mandatory licensing, and if 200% of domestic supply is local you are free of the mandatory licensing requirement.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> You can even scale it.  Like 50% of the medicine has to be made domestically to have patent protection with mandatory licensing, and if 200% of domestic supply is local you are free of the mandatory licensing requirement.




200%?  Like, they _massively_ over-produce locally?


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> 200%?  Like, they _massively_ over-produce locally?



Yes.

If you produce at least 50% of local demand, you get patent protection for that medicine, but with mandatory licensing.  So the country can buy the medicine from 3rd party countries, paying you a fixed amount for the doses.  The doses you produce locally need not be consumed locally; quite possibly you will want better profits than the mandatory licensing permits you to capture.

If you produce twice enough for local demand, you no longer have mandatory licensing.  This will involve exporting, or hell making it and burying it.  I don't care what you do with it.

The national security reason is pretty simple; countries have proven willing to shut down trade in an emergency.  This endangers national security and the safety of the population.

It isn't *safe* to depend on imported medicine.

So if you want to have any patent protection, have factories that are local that can't be shut down by emergencies, so we have guaranteed local supply.  If not, then we will import from nations that violate your patents we do not recognize, or let locals produce it without patent protection.

And if you want full protection, produce enough locally that if we need more in an emergency we can claim it.

Naturally there are issues, like 50% of all of the supplies needed by the supply chain.

You could permit some parts to be handled by stockpiles.  If you stockpile, say, 2 years of supply in the country you might be excused from producing that supply locally.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> So if you want to have any patent protection, have factories that are local that can't be shut down by emergencies, so we have guaranteed local supply.




Um... you know that "can't be shut down by emergencies" is literally impossible in a pandemic, right?  Drug manufacture is highly skilled labor.  If your people get sick, your facility shuts down.

Also, it ignores the global nature of trade today.  The end-factory has a long supply chain of tools and materials needed to make vaccines.  Day-to-day, it is not necessary, nor in the company's best interests, to limit to local suppliers for all elements. 

This, ultimately, is an issue of risk management.  What one often finds is that mandates like this are not worth the company's effort to meet - keeping up a huge cost to be prepared for an event that may or may not happen at some unspecified future date is not typically cost effective.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Still, he has a point.  There’s a certain amount of vulnerability you can minimize (not eliminate) with strategic planning.  That’s one reason why the Feds were willing to float the Big 3 some bailout money during the previuos recession- jobs aside, that kept valuable technology and infrastructure operational within the country’s borders.*

So building up a stockpile of vaccines and/or production facilities makes sense.  Maybe not 200%, but somewhere between 75-115% might not be unreasonable, dependi on a variety of factors.

And if the propellerheads at the University of Glascow- or elsewhere-actually succeed in perfecting 3D pharmaceutical production to human-safe levels, that will increase supply safety wherever it can operate.








						New "Chemical MP3 Players" could lead to Spotify network of on-demand 3D printed drugs
					

A study on 3D printed drugs, published in a new paper published today in the journal Science, could lead to a ‘Spotify for chemistry’




					www.3dprintingmedia.network
				






* Sure, if China decided to stop selling us lithium or the Russians stopped selling us titanium, there’d be problems, but we wouldn’t be *completely* devoid of auto manufacturers (and all the other technologies and industries that supply and support them)


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> So building up a stockpile of vaccines and/or production facilities makes sense.  Maybe not 200%, but somewhere between 75-115% might not be unreasonable, dependi on a variety of factors.




But... you can't.  I mean, you don't know what the next thing will be.  You don't know what mitigation will come first - vaccine, drug treatment, vector eradication... and what form it would take.  The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines both use new technology that hasn't been ever been approved for use in a vaccine before!  How on Earth do you stockpile for drugs using unforeseen technology?

And, of course, everything we are talking about has an expiry date, so we are not talking about a one-time expenditure to create a stockpile.  We are talking about a permanent cost of maintaining a stockpile.  Of materials to make enough of... any possible treatment?   Think about that for a moment.

Yes, there are things that should be stockpiled - PPE, for example, and common materials used for supportive care, like respirators.  And there are other long-term actions that can be taken - every national guard unit should be trained to deploy to support and assist medical personnel in case of pandemic. The pandemic plans that we had that were scuttled by the prior administration need to be put back in place.  And overall, we need a long-term plan to foster public support for public health, because above and beyond all the worst issue we faced in this was people who wouldn't comply with regulation to quell the pandemic.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> But... you can't.  I mean, you don't know what the next thing will be.  You don't know what mitigation will come first - vaccine, drug treatment, vector eradication... and what form it would take.  The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines both use new technology that hasn't been ever been approved for use in a vaccine before!  How on Earth do you stockpile for drugs using unforeseen technology?
> 
> And, of course, everything we are talking about has an expiry date, so we are not talking about a one-time expenditure to create a stockpile.  We are talking about a permanent cost of maintaining a stockpile.  Of materials to make enough of... any possible treatment?   Think about that for a moment.
> 
> Yes, there are things that should be stockpiled - PPE, for example, and common materials used for supportive care, like respirators.  And there are other long-term actions that can be taken - every national guard unit should be trained to deploy to support and assist medical personnel in case of pandemic. The pandemic plans that we had that were scuttled by the prior administration need to be put back in place.  And overall, we need a long-term plan to foster public support for public health, because above and beyond all the worst issue we faced in this was people who wouldn't comply with regulation to quell the pandemic.



The USA is currently engaged in an embargo of vaccines.

Anyone depending on the USA for health care supplies should stop doing so if they donpt want to be naughty word in the next pandemic.

It is true the result ,ight be "pharma companies don't buold factories locally".  In which case you pirate all the drugs and don't pay for reseach costs.  And get local factories anyhow.

Or maybe they build factories locally and capture those profits.  Their choice.

2 of the vaccines where bleeding edge.  The other ones where not.

Relying on another nation for emergency healthcare supplies is a danger to national security.

If you have trade that doesn't shut down in an emergency, that is one thing.  So having your factories somewhere else inside the EU is safe if you are in it.

Does this mean decoupling from global trade networks for health care supplies?  Quite possibly.

The USA is not worth the risk to deoend on when your national security is at stake.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> The USA is currently engaged in an embargo of vaccines.
> 
> Anyone depending on the USA for health care supplies should stop doing so if they donpt want to be naughty word in the next pandemic.
> 
> It is true the result ,ight be "pharma companies don't buold factories locally".  In which case you pirate all the drugs and don't pay for reseach costs.  And get local factories anyhow.
> 
> Or maybe they build factories locally and capture those profits.  Their choice.
> 
> 2 of the vaccines where bleeding edge.  The other ones where not.
> 
> Relying on another nation for emergency healthcare supplies is a danger to national security.
> 
> If you have trade that doesn't shut down in an emergency, that is one thing.  So having your factories somewhere else inside the EU is safe if you are in it.
> 
> Does this mean decoupling from global trade networks for health care supplies?  Quite possibly.
> 
> The USA is not worth the risk to deoend on when your national security is at stake.




 What else you gonna do, EU restricting exports, Chinese one is argueably useless, Russians can't supply their one in enough quanties. 

 And only a relative few countries could manufacture the vaccines very few can develop one mostly EU/USA and Russia.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> But... you can't.  I mean, you don't know what the next thing will be.  You don't know what mitigation will come first - vaccine, drug treatment, vector eradication... and what form it would take.  The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines both use new technology that hasn't been ever been approved for use in a vaccine before!  How on Earth do you stockpile for drugs using unforeseen technology?
> 
> And, of course, everything we are talking about has an expiry date, so we are not talking about a one-time expenditure to create a stockpile.  We are talking about a permanent cost of maintaining a stockpile.  Of materials to make enough of... any possible treatment?   Think about that for a moment.
> 
> Yes, there are things that should be stockpiled - PPE, for example, and common materials used for supportive care, like respirators.  And there are other long-term actions that can be taken - every national guard unit should be trained to deploy to support and assist medical personnel in case of pandemic. The pandemic plans that we had that were scuttled by the prior administration need to be put back in place.  And overall, we need a long-term plan to foster public support for public health, because above and beyond all the worst issue we faced in this was people who wouldn't comply with regulation to quell the pandemic.



It may not be possible to meaningfully stockpile any of the C19 vaccines at all, in which case you make sure you at least stockpile the non-perishable components and equipment needed to make it. 

If the equipment is general/multipurpose and not specialized, you set aside extra parts or even whole units so you don’t need to start from scratch or have to make binary production choices between those other uses and C19 vaccine production if & when.

(This is something the Feds are too good at: we’re currently sitting at 30+ years of spare parts on our current main battle tank, for instance...and still making more.  See also strategic reserves of oil, PPE and so forth.)

OTOH, if the predictions about C19 becoming endemic and requiring periodic booster shots, the “stockpile” wouldn’t NEED to last all that long or be that big.   Just like hospitals have excess beds beyond their “capacity” as a guard against catas need- thank goodness for THAT- you’d just maintain a rotating stockpile big enough to guard against spikes,


----------



## Eltab

NotAYakk said:


> Getting my shot tomorrow.
> 
> In response to the vaccine export bans, I'm wondering if countries should simply stop respecting patent protection for any and all medicines not made within the country as a matter of national security.
> 
> You can even scale it.  Like 50% of the medicine has to be made domestically to have patent protection with mandatory licensing, and if 200% of domestic supply is local you are free of the mandatory licensing requirement.



Dumping patent protection for foreign-invented goods is a recipe for 'no more shared research'.  But some kind of emergency clause - which is resistant against 'permanent emergency' abuse - that says something like "local factories can reverse-engineer and produce patented goods, payment for such to be made to the patent holder within a year" might serve to protect both supplier and consumer interests.


----------



## NotAYakk

Eltab said:


> Dumping patent protection for foreign-invented goods is a recipe for 'no more shared research'.  But some kind of emergency clause - which is resistant against 'permanent emergency' abuse - that says something like "local factories can reverse-engineer and produce patented goods, payment for such to be made to the patent holder within a year" might serve to protect both supplier and consumer interests.



You misunderstand.  It doesn't matter where it is invented.  It just matters where it is manufactured.

As evidenced by this pandemic, materials needed for national security reasons *cannot be made in another country*.  And health care is national security, and when a pandemic hits, the other country will shut off your supplies.

Canada had to literally threaten to black out half of Maine to keep PPE supplies going (it was a very, very polite threat; the fact that Canada powers half of maine was mentioned as part of the high integration of US and Canadian health care systems.  Maine was mentioned because there where 2 hospitals powered by Canadian power there), but lacking a sufficient leverage the USA banned all exports of the vaccines Canada purchased.

Canada is aware we share a bed with a drunk elephant.

Canada isn't currently making a fuss over that, as we have reason to believe that the effects of that delay will be a few months long, and we have enough supplies from the EU to vaccinate the most vulnerable.  (The EU, unlike the USA, did not shut down vaccine exports; if it had, Canada would be naughty word).  Currently Canada is importing AZ vaccine from the USA; mRNA ones are not being allowed to be exported.  Canada's mRNA vaccines come from Europe.

Canada sold off its ability to produce vaccines under a previous government to save a bit of money.  It is rebuilding again; but with the continued threat to global supply lines, Canada should make it a matter of national security.  We'll have domestic manufacturing again by november, part of the plan to deal with the possibility of more embargos.  And this plan should be what every other nation on the planet with enough wealth to afford it should do.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> What else you gonna do, EU restricting exports, Chinese one is argueably useless, Russians can't supply their one in enough quanties.
> 
> And only a relative few countries could manufacture the vaccines very few can develop one mostly EU/USA and Russia.



Oh, to be clear, Canada has the technology to develop a vaccine.  Maybe a bit slower than a superpower, but the knowledge is here.

We where working with China of all places to finish and manufacture one.  They cut off contact, and took the research.  It was worth a shot, I suppose.  (Currently, Canada is having a diplomatic spat with China over a little thing of an extradition treaty with the USA; but the shut down of contact was probably mostly vaccine nationalism here.)

It just lacks the ability to manufacture it in any quantities.  10 years ago it could have, but today, it isn't practical.

Canada is a strange country.  It has the technology and materials to make nuclear bombs, but does not out of principle.  (One of the problems with the CANDU reactor design is that it can be "easily" modified to make weapons grade fissionables.  Oops.)  Also, Canada isn't very good at rocketry.  And moose don't carry bombs far.

If, say, even the flu vaccines Canada uses where made in country, retooling that to produce a AZ could have been viable, and the national security threat of vaccine hording wouldn't have been a problem.  (Not mRNA; mRNA is new tech, but in under 10 years I suspect flu vaccines may be made using mRNA tech)


----------



## Garthanos

NotAYakk said:


> If, say, even the flu vaccines Canada uses where made in country, retooling that to produce a AZ could have been viable, and the national security threat of vaccine hording wouldn't have been a problem.  (Not mRNA; mRNA is new tech, but in under 10 years I suspect flu vaccines may be made using mRNA tech)



They are talking a viable HIV vaccine using that tech too.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

> As evidenced by this pandemic, materials needed for national security reasons cannot be made in another country.



Just from a raw materials standpoint, this is pretty much impossible.  Lithium and titanium are 2 pretty important substances for high-tech gear.  The USA isn’t in the top 6 producers for either one.  Russia is for titanium; China is on both short lists.

Top Titanium Producing Countries




__





						Top six lithium-producing countries around the world in 2019
					

A handful of countries dominate the market for producing lithium - a mineral that has grown in stature in recent years due to its use in batteries.




					www.nsenergybusiness.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Just from a raw materials standpoint, this is pretty much impossible.  Lithium and titanium are 2 pretty important substances for high-tech gear.  The USA isn’t in the top 6 producers for either one.  Russia is for titanium; China is on both short lists.
> 
> Top Titanium Producing Countries
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Top six lithium-producing countries around the world in 2019
> 
> 
> A handful of countries dominate the market for producing lithium - a mineral that has grown in stature in recent years due to its use in batteries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nsenergybusiness.com




 Pretty much. 

 USA can't refight WW2 in terms of production. It's not any better in any of the other "western" nations.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It may not be possible to meaningfully stockpile any of the C19 vaccines at all, in which case you make sure you at least stockpile the non-perishable components and equipment needed to make it.




Yeah, but you don't even know if the next pandemic threat will be covid-19, or any coronavirus at all!

Humans have a habit of looking at a recent disaster, and coming to the conclusion that we need to prepare for something pretty much the same - and then finding out that the next disaster has little relation, making the preparations ineffective.  Broadly speaking, we should expect the next disease issue will be something random that we haven't seen before.  We will need new pushes on developments of vaccines _or other treatments_, because there is absolutely no guarantee that there will be an effective vaccine.  Beyond the very basics of biochemistry, we aren't going to be able to predict what will be necessary to fight it.

And honeslty, on that score, we haven't actually done badly anyway.  In this pandemic, vaccine production has gone about as well as can be expected, worldwide.  That has not been our failure point.  The point on which we most failed, globally, was on public health measures to hold off the worst of the spread.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Yeah, but you don't even know if the next pandemic threat will be covid-19, or any coronavirus at all!
> 
> Humans have a habit of looking at a recent disaster, and coming to the conclusion that we need to prepare for something pretty much the same - and then finding out that the next disaster has little relation, making the preparations ineffective.  Broadly speaking, we should expect the next disease issue will be something random that we haven't seen before.  We will need new pushes on developments of vaccines _or other treatments_, because there is absolutely no guarantee that there will be an effective vaccine.  Beyond the very basics of biochemistry, we aren't going to be able to predict what will be necessary to fight it.
> 
> And honeslty, on that score, we haven't actually done badly anyway.  In this pandemic, vaccine production has gone about as well as can be expected, worldwide.  That has not been our failure point.  The point on which we most failed, globally, was on public health measures to hold off the worst of the spread.



May not be corona but the odds of it being airborne and well responded to with lock downs, masks and distancing seems rather high


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Yeah, but you don't even know if the next pandemic threat will be covid-19, or any coronavirus at all!
> 
> Humans have a habit of looking at a recent disaster, and coming to the conclusion that we need to prepare for something pretty much the same - and then finding out that the next disaster has little relation, making the preparations ineffective.  Broadly speaking, we should expect the next disease issue will be something random that we haven't seen before.  We will need new pushes on developments of vaccines _or other treatments_, because there is absolutely no guarantee that there will be an effective vaccine.  Beyond the very basics of biochemistry, we aren't going to be able to predict what will be necessary to fight it.
> 
> And honeslty, on that score, we haven't actually done badly anyway.  In this pandemic, vaccine production has gone about as well as can be expected, worldwide.  That has not been our failure point.  The point on which we most failed, globally, was on public health measures to hold off the worst of the spread.



In my mind, I was taking as given that the epidemiologists’ assertion that C19 was like to become endemic, and that strongly influenced my response.  But you’re 100% right that the next pathogen to blow up might be something  else entirely.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Garthanos said:


> May not be corona but the odds of it being airborne and well responded to with lock downs, masks and distancing seems rather high



And flus and coronaviruses top the list of respiratory ailments of concern.


----------



## NotAYakk

I am thinking that mRNA tech might mean the end of the flu.  We can print out variant vaccines faster with it.  And the price per dose is already low, and could get lower.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Yeah, but you don't even know if the next pandemic threat will be covid-19, or any coronavirus at all!
> 
> Humans have a habit of looking at a recent disaster, and coming to the conclusion that we need to prepare for something pretty much the same - and then finding out that the next disaster has little relation, making the preparations ineffective.  Broadly speaking, we should expect the next disease issue will be something random that we haven't seen before.  We will need new pushes on developments of vaccines _or other treatments_, because there is absolutely no guarantee that there will be an effective vaccine.  Beyond the very basics of biochemistry, we aren't going to be able to predict what will be necessary to fight it.
> 
> And honeslty, on that score, we haven't actually done badly anyway.  In this pandemic, vaccine production has gone about as well as can be expected, worldwide.  That has not been our failure point.  The point on which we most failed, globally, was on public health measures to hold off the worst of the spread.



There are two additional human traits, that play into a lack of preparedness.

Humans are bad at telling the difference between _actual_ risk and _perceived_ risk, so we tend to (at least personally) prepare for the wrong things. It's why so many people refuse to take a vaccine, with a 1/100,000 negative result, but instead will risk a disease that has a 1/1000 negative outcome. I wish that I could remember who wrote a scholarly book about this very thing, just a few years back, because I would very much like to read it.

Humans, culturally, seem to have a short memory. After SARS and MERS, there was a great deal of preparation made against the possibility of a pandemic in the near future. Labs were opened in likely hotspots (one of which was an almost prophetic choice). Larger organizations made plans for things like working remotely. (My university, for example, invested in a large number of IP phone 'kits' that could be used on home broadband connecitons.) A few years later all of that is gone, like chaff in a high wind.


----------



## MarkB

Ryujin said:


> There are two additional human traits, that play into a lack of preparedness.
> 
> Humans are bad at telling the difference between _actual_ risk and _perceived_ risk, so we tend to (at least personally) prepare for the wrong things. It's why so many people refuse to take a vaccine, with a 1/100,000 negative result, but instead will risk a disease that has a 1/1000 negative outcome. I wish that I could remember who wrote a scholarly book about this very thing, just a few years back, because I would very much like to read it.



That seems like a variation of the Trolley Problem. Psychologically, the risk that you take by not acting feels more attractive than the one you take by acting, because you're not actively choosing it and therefore aren't responsible for it.


----------



## Ryujin

MarkB said:


> That seems like a variation of the Trolley Problem. Psychologically, the risk that you take by not acting feels more attractive than the one you take by acting, because you're not actively choosing it and therefore aren't responsible for it.



To a degree, I suppose, but it's not on a conscious level.


----------



## Zardnaar

MarkB said:


> That seems like a variation of the Trolley Problem. Psychologically, the risk that you take by not acting feels more attractive than the one you take by acting, because you're not actively choosing it and therefore aren't responsible for it.




 I've seen variations of that arguement online in regards to ww2.

 Do XYZ ABC die. 

Do nothing more people due but you can blame the other side as it isn't you making that decision.


----------



## Garthanos

Ryujin said:


> There are two additional human traits, that play into a lack of preparedness.
> 
> Humans are bad at telling the difference between _actual_ risk and _perceived_ risk, so we tend to (at least personally) prepare for the wrong things. It's why so many people refuse to take a vaccine, with a 1/100,000 negative result, but instead will risk a disease that has a 1/1000 negative outcome. I wish that I could remember who wrote a scholarly book about this very thing, just a few years back, because I would very much like to read it.



Risk assessment is not high on our skill tree.... we seem to desperately want agency (ie a person to blame) for our risk.


----------



## Hussar

And... someday they'll finally start rolling out vaccines here in Japan.  Sigh.

Now here was a new experience.   My uni classes that I teach are still being done by remote.  I'm in my office at home doing the class and about half or three quarters of my students are in the classroom at the university.    Can someone please explain the logic on this.  It just makes my head hurt.

Granted, I'm from Ontario, and ANYTHING right now seems better than what's going on there.  Good grief.


----------



## Bedrockgames

MarkB said:


> That seems like a variation of the Trolley Problem. Psychologically, the risk that you take by not acting feels more attractive than the one you take by acting, because you're not actively choosing it and therefore aren't responsible for it.



My wife just got her vaccine, still seeing when and if I will get mine. But I think it is more than the trolley problem. I will likely get the vaccine after weighing the risks with my doctor (I have three autoimmune diseases). But I think the x factor here is we don’t know the long term side effects the vaccines may have because they are new. So people are weighing not just the very small known risk, but the unknown risk when they decide


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> And... someday they'll finally start rolling out vaccines here in Japan.  Sigh.
> 
> Now here was a new experience.   My uni classes that I teach are still being done by remote.  I'm in my office at home doing the class and about half or three quarters of my students are in the classroom at the university.    Can someone please explain the logic on this.  It just makes my head hurt.
> 
> Granted, I'm from Ontario, and ANYTHING right now seems better than what's going on there.  Good grief.



You’re the the product.  The administration is protecting you.  If you can’t work, they can’t charge for your expertise.

The students are the market.  One disappears, another will replace her.


----------



## Hussar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> You’re the the product.  The administration is protecting you.  If you can’t work, they can’t charge for your expertise.
> 
> The students are the market.  One disappears, another will replace her.



The truly brutal thing is, it's only the universities here.  ALl the other schools, from pre-school to high school have been back in session since last May without any real issue.  It's truly bizarre.


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> And... someday they'll finally start rolling out vaccines here in Japan.  Sigh.
> 
> Now here was a new experience.   My uni classes that I teach are still being done by remote.  I'm in my office at home doing the class and about half or three quarters of my students are in the classroom at the university.    Can someone please explain the logic on this.  It just makes my head hurt.
> 
> Granted, I'm from Ontario, and ANYTHING right now seems better than what's going on there.  Good grief.



You're not wrong about Ontario. I'm in Brampton, which is the current Covid hotspot, with a 22.4% positivity rate. That's double the Provincial average, which is also currently at its highest point. Unfortunately there are still far too many people who are ignoring the rules and the rules aren't being enforced, in any meaningful way. The one bright point is that more people are getting vaccinated now.


----------



## Hussar

Ryujin said:


> You're not wrong about Ontario. I'm in Brampton, which is the current Covid hotspot, with a 22.4% positivity rate. That's double the Provincial average, which is also currently at its highest point. Unfortunately there are still far too many people who are ignoring the rules and the rules aren't being enforced, in any meaningful way. The one bright point is that more people are getting vaccinated now.



Oh, dude, I feel you.  My blood pressure just spikes every time I check the local papers back home.  What was it?  Aylmer?  Yeah, those guys are actually not that far from where I grew up.  I am just ... I'm going to use the word gobsmacked here even though I'm not British just because it's the best word I can think of.  The blinding stupidity is so disheartening.


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> Oh, dude, I feel you.  My blood pressure just spikes every time I check the local papers back home.  What was it?  Aylmer?  Yeah, those guys are actually not that far from where I grew up.  I am just ... I'm going to use the word gobsmacked here even though I'm not British just because it's the best word I can think of.  The blinding stupidity is so disheartening.



Yeah, Aylmer. Wish that I could comment more, but rules are rules.

In the early days of the lockdown, there were people having 200-300 person house parties in Air BNBs, in this area. One of my co-workers, who is big in the local ballroom dancing crowd told me that people are renting out warehouses in order to hold events for 100-200 people. 

We'd likely be out of this mess already, if people would just follow the rules. Brampton has a lot of multi-generational homes with a bunch of people working essential service jobs, to pay their enormous mortgages, and I understand how that initially drove our local numbers higher. I just don't get these people who aren't operating under those constraints, but continue to make things rough for the rest of us.


----------



## billd91

Hussar said:


> The truly brutal thing is, it's only the universities here.  ALl the other schools, from pre-school to high school have been back in session since last May without any real issue.  It's truly bizarre.



That might change once the strains hitting younger people make their way into the country.


----------



## Ryujin

Great. They announced an outbreak at one of our residences. From 2 weeks ago. Fortunately I haven't been working in that building for a couple of months now, on my rare trips on-site. That's going to impact a bunch of the Facilities Management workers though.


----------



## Umbran

One of the next hurdles in the US is going to be vaccine hesitancy.  









						Vaccine Hesitancy for COVID-19: State, County, and Local Estimates
					

To support state and local communication and outreach efforts, ASPE developed state, county, and sub-state level predictions of hesitancy rates using the most recently available federal survey data, the Household Pulse Survey from May 26-June 7, 2021. This page includes an interactive map, a pdf...




					aspe.hhs.gov
				




Here in MA, less than 10% of the population (most counties are between 6% and 8%) is hestiant to get the vaccine, which is _frikkin' awesome_.  

Wyoming, however, has hesitancy up around 30%, which is probably enough to prevent establishment of herd immunity.


----------



## Garthanos

My county is the least hesitant in Nebraska also ranks high in education == coincidence? nyeh
County Name: Lancaster County, Nebraska
Estimated hesitant: 16.58%
Estimated strongly hesitant: 8.17%
Social Vulnerability Index (SVI): 0.3 (Low Vulnerability)
Ability to handle a COVID-19 outbreak (CVAC): 0.12 (Very Low Vulnerability)
Percent adults fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (as of 03/30/21): 21.3%


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Wyoming, however, has hesitancy up around 30%, which is probably enough to prevent establishment of herd immunity.



Cuts that one out of my vacation plans


----------



## Ryujin

@Hussar - That incident you mentioned in Aylmer? Well, it turns out that two of the "attendees" were off duty Toronto Police officers, who were arguing with the Aylmer Police abut police procedure. There's video of the incident and it's under review by Toronto Police Services, for possible disciplinary action.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> One of the next hurdles in the US is going to be vaccine hesitancy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Vaccine Hesitancy for COVID-19: State, County, and Local Estimates
> 
> 
> To support state and local communication and outreach efforts, ASPE developed state, county, and sub-state level predictions of hesitancy rates using the most recently available federal survey data, the Household Pulse Survey from May 26-June 7, 2021. This page includes an interactive map, a pdf...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> aspe.hhs.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Here in MA, less than 10% of the population (most counties are between 6% and 8%) is hestiant to get the vaccine, which is _frikkin' awesome_.
> 
> Wyoming, however, has hesitancy up around 30%, which is probably enough to prevent establishment of herd immunity.




Yeah, here in California we're chunkin' along pretty good too.  I suspect we'll start hitting diminishing returns in the number of people who are in a hurry to get it soon.  The only good thing is early polling seems to suggest that a disproportionate number of the resistant are away from dense areas of population.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Thomas Shey said:


> Yeah, here in California we're chunkin' along pretty good too.  I suspect we'll start hitting diminishing returns in the number of people who are in a hurry to get it soon.  The only good thing is early polling seems to suggest that a disproportionate number of the resistant are away from dense areas of population.



I’m thinking with that dynamic, we may see some rural, vaccine-hesitant counties & states experiencing occasional “quarantines” similar to those in 2020 over the next few years as they continue to have bigger than average C19 spikes.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m thinking with that dynamic, we may see some rural, vaccine-hesitant counties & states experiencing occasional “quarantines” similar to those in 2020 over the next few years as they continue to have bigger than average C19 spikes.




Some rural, vaccine-hesitant counties... and the entire states of Wyoming, North, and South Dakota.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yep.

I have to say...m honestly surprised a Texas.  For all the obviously strong streak of..._”independence“..._I’m seeing most of the people here are still taking the pandemic seriously.  Most are still going masked, despite Gov. Abbot’s ending of protective measures.  Only a few businesses have taken down their pandemic signage.

A lot of buffets still operating as such require masks AND gloves to go the rough the line.  And yes, they supply them if you don’t have your own.  Hell, some of my favorite family-owned restaurants here are still delivery/take-out only.


----------



## Hussar

Here's a lovely tidbit.  My town apparently, according to the town hall anyway, has 9000 senior citizens living in it.  The town requested 3000 shots.  They received 1000.  

They basically had a, first come, first serve feeding frenzy and 8000 residents having no idea when the next round is coming.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Here's a lovely tidbit.  My town apparently, according to the town hall anyway, has 9000 senior citizens living in it.  The town requested 3000 shots.  They received 1000.
> 
> They basically had a, first come, first serve feeding frenzy and 8000 residents having no idea when the next round is coming.




 Well they opened the travel bubble here earlier in the week to great fanfare. 

 Demand was a lit less than anticipated and flights got cancelled. 

 And there's been another Covid leak in west Australia so no travel bubble there. Our friends kids went to Perth to see dad. 

 And there's going to be a concert soon and they're anticipating 50000 people's. We've had it good comparatively but sometimes makes you wonder.

 I wouldn't be travelling anywhere overseas until 2022 at the earliest, probably late 2022 and I wouldn't be allowing concerts that size.


----------



## Janx

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yep.
> 
> I have to say...m honestly surprised a Texas.  For all the obviously strong streak of..._”independence“..._I’m seeing most of the people here are still taking the pandemic seriously.  Most are still going masked, despite Gov. Abbot’s ending of protective measures.  Only a few businesses have taken down their pandemic signage.
> 
> A lot of buffets still operating as such require masks AND gloves to go the rough the line.  And yes, they supply them if you don’t have your own.  Hell, some of my favorite family-owned restaurants here are still delivery/take-out only.



there's a few more unmasked in my local HEB.  Kroger is worse for that.  But yeah, every place I've been has still got the signage up.  Which admittedly is a short list of places.


----------



## Ryujin

Janx said:


> there's a few more unmasked in my local HEB.  Kroger is worse for that.  But yeah, every place I've been has still got the signage up.  Which admittedly is a short list of places.



Here, we have signage up for 25% maximum capacity in even critical businesses and non critical are curbside only. Makes getting into somewhere like Wal-Mart difficult unless, like me, you prefer to go at 7:00am when the place is a ghost town even during better times.


----------



## NotAYakk

Got first vaccination dose.  Turns out from a factory with QC issues, but ya gotta do what ta gotta do.


----------



## Zardnaar

Public holiday +school holiday+weekend few Aussie accents floating around with the travel bubble. 






 Giraffe feeding time.

 My favorite Aussie quote of the day "where's the Kangaroos".


----------



## Zardnaar

With international acts basically unavailable it's sent this band into the stratosphere. World's biggest live act atm. 









						Six60 at Eden Park: 50,000 fans flock to Auckland stadium for inaugural concert
					

It was the closing of the Six60 Saturdays country-wide tour, and the beginning of a new era for the hallowed ground.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




50k at a concert.


 See if Aucklands to in lockdown in 2 weeks.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> With international acts basically unavailable it's sent this band into the stratosphere. World's biggest live act atm.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Six60 at Eden Park: 50,000 fans flock to Auckland stadium for inaugural concert
> 
> 
> It was the closing of the Six60 Saturdays country-wide tour, and the beginning of a new era for the hallowed ground.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 50k at a concert.
> 
> 
> See if Aucklands to in lockdown in 2 weeks.



It could boost transmission by 1000x.

 Of course 1000x 0 is 0.


----------



## Deset Gled

NotAYakk said:


> Got first vaccination dose.  Turns out from a factory with QC issues, but ya gotta do what ta gotta do.



If it makes you feel better, in 2021 more US citizens have been have been killed by gender reveal parties than by the COVID vaccine.  As long as you can stay away from any overly excited expecting parents, you should be safe.


----------



## NotAYakk

Deset Gled said:


> If it makes you feel better, in 2021 more US citizens have been have been killed by gender reveal parties than by the COVID vaccine.  As long as you can stay away from any overly excited expecting parents, you should be safe.



Oh yes, I took it eyes open.

---









						Michigan's COVID Wards Are Filling Up With Younger Patients
					

ROYAL OAK, Mich. — At Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, in one of America’s worst coronavirus hot spots, entire units are still filled with COVID-19 patients. People weak with the virus still struggle to sit up in bed. And the phone still rings with pleas to transfer patients on the verge of death...




					news.yahoo.com
				




So apparently B117 is starting to hit the USA like it already is hitting Ontario.

B117 is what caused the UK to panic around Christmas.  In environments that had Covid under control (reproduction under 1), it spreads faster and basically doubles every week.  It is 60% more lethal, and tends to make younger people much sicker than the baseline strain.

It is believed it was incubated in an immunocompromised person; the covid evolved to reproduce better and evade the immune system.  Human immune systems usually win when they get a fingerprint of an infection; in immunocompromised people, it stumbles along, and the virus had time to adapt in multiple ways.  It then spread from there.  (This is the general theory of most of the variants of concern, because they have _too many_ mutations all at once).

Vaccines tend to protect against variants of concern less well.  Both mRNA and protein-based vaccines are being tested that specifically target the variants.

India is also experiencing a B117 wave; it also has another variant which isn't dominant there but biologists think is extra concerning.

In an old folks home where 50% of staff and like 90% of residents where vaccinated, B117 was 8 times as likely to infect an unvaccinated as vaccinated, but vaccinated people died and got very sick from it; in comparison, baseline covid 19 killing someone vaccinated is under a one-in-a-million event.

---

In related news, someone did a comparison of death rates from 1918 flu and covid 19 in NYC, and covid 19 was deadlier in almost every metric.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> In an old folks home where 50% of staff and like 90% of residents where vaccinated, B117 was 8 times as likely to infect an unvaccinated as vaccinated, but vaccinated people died and got very sick from it; in comparison, baseline covid 19 killing someone vaccinated is under a one-in-a-million event.




So, we absolutely need to remember something.  The most effective vaccines are 90-95% effective.

95% _IS NOT 100%_!

I mean, really, we are all D&D players here, right?  5% is exactly the chance for a standard critical hit!  Roll the dice enough times, and covid can still roll a 20.

Closed in with a population pool like an old folks home is like standing in the middle of a horde of goblins, each of them taking cracks at you.  No stuff, every once in a while, someone rolls a critical.


----------



## Disgruntled Hobbit

Umbran said:


> I mean, really, we are all D&D players here, right?  5% is exactly the chance for a standard critical hit!  Roll the dice enough times, and covid can still roll a 20.



I'm somewhat disturbed that you went with critical hit when "natural 1" and fumble was right there


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> So, we absolutely need to remember something.  The most effective vaccines are 90-95% effective.
> 
> 95% _IS NOT 100%_!
> 
> I mean, really, we are all D&D players here, right?  5% is exactly the chance for a standard critical hit!  Roll the dice enough times, and covid can still roll a 20.
> 
> Closed in with a population pool like an old folks home is like standing in the middle of a horde of goblins, each of them taking cracks at you.  No stuff, every once in a while, someone rolls a critical.



In this case they where 88% effective against infection, but unlike against baseline covid did not prevent serious disease and death.

Against baseline covid, every western vaccine is 99%+ protection against serious illness and death.

Also note none of the vaccines where tested head to head.  We do not know if 80% effective is better or worse than 96%, because they where tested in different populations with different variants and different testing criteria.  But all of them made serious illness and death just vanish.  Except B117 violates that protection.


----------



## Ryujin

Disgruntled Hobbit said:


> I'm somewhat disturbed that you went with critical hit when "natural 1" and fumble was right there



I'm thinking "Die-Die.club" here. "Did everyone eat the stew?"


----------



## CapnZapp

These numbers - 96% or 72% or what have you - I find uninteresting.

Yes they represent protection from getting sick (infected) and I realize that's what important from the pandemic angle.

But for me I'm not worried about getting a bit sick for a week.

To me, the BY FAR MOST IMPORTANT MEASURE is the protection against severe disease and death.

Basically, protection against having to visit the hospital.

Any vaccine that prevents hospitalization is good enough for me.

That's the important number and it frustrates me it isn't what people are talking about.


----------



## Ryujin

CapnZapp said:


> These numbers - 96% or 72% or what have you - I find uninteresting.
> 
> Yes they represent protection from getting sick (infected) and I realize that's what important from the pandemic angle.
> 
> But for me I'm not worried about getting a bit sick for a week.
> 
> To me, the BY FAR MOST IMPORTANT MEASURE is the protection against severe disease and death.
> 
> Basically, protection against having to visit the hospital.
> 
> Any vaccine that prevents hospitalization is good enough for me.
> 
> That's the important number and it frustrates me it isn't what people are talking about.



And the more important number, overall, is the point at which we hit "herd immunity" as, after that, individual resistance largely becomes statistically immaterial.


----------



## Umbran

Disgruntled Hobbit said:


> I'm somewhat disturbed that you went with critical hit when "natural 1" and fumble was right there




For two reasons:
1) Critical fumbles are not actually in the rules.
2) It really is less like you or the vaccine fumbling, and more about the virus getting that one lucky shot.  The critical hit metaphor is just more apt.



NotAYakk said:


> In this case they where 88% effective against infection, but unlike against baseline covid did not prevent serious disease and death.
> 
> Against baseline covid, every western vaccine is 99%+ protection against serious illness and death.
> 
> Also note none of the vaccines where tested head to head.  We do not know if 80% effective is better or worse than 96%, because they where tested in different populations with different variants and different testing criteria.  But all of them made serious illness and death just vanish.  Except B117 violates that protection.




So, if you are going to note the differences in studies, then we really need to make it plain - the events at one group home are not statistically significant.  It is not a properly randomized sample, with control.  The numbers in a single group living site are statistically small compared to the testing overall.  And, most importantly, since we are talking about events at a particular location, there is the possibility that there was some other influence on that community that changed the numbers. 

Especially when this is particular incident is to us... a bit apocryphal.  I mean, I haven't seen a reliable news story about it or anything.

So, while this may be of some concern, it _IS NOT_ grounds to say the vaccine is not effective against B117.  That conclusion is premature.


----------



## NotAYakk

CapnZapp said:


> These numbers - 96% or 72% or what have you - I find uninteresting.
> 
> Yes they represent protection from getting sick (infected) and I realize that's what important from the pandemic angle.
> 
> But for me I'm not worried about getting a bit sick for a week.
> 
> To me, the BY FAR MOST IMPORTANT MEASURE is the protection against severe disease and death.
> 
> Basically, protection against having to visit the hospital.
> 
> Any vaccine that prevents hospitalization is good enough for me.
> 
> That's the important number and it frustrates me it isn't what people are talking about.



And that (protection against hospitalization) is near 100% against the baseline strain from every vaccine.

It appears _not_ to be near 100% for the variants.  It is still good, but not nearly perfect protection.

Now, it would be surprising if Covid didn't seem to spread much better from people with higher viral loads, and the vaccines reduce viral loads; I don't think we've found a variant it is ineffective against, just less effective.  And vaccination seems to be reducing transmission in the real world, where Israel's mass vaccination was seeing drop offs in infected of non-vaccinated.

Herd immunity's impact is hyperbolic -- the divisor of transmission is a factor of 1/(1-transmission reduction).  If your vaccine is 80% effective at reducing transmission (whoop!) and you have 30% coverage, that divides R by 1.3.  Which is more than dominated by social distancing/mask wearing in impact.

If you hit 70% coverage with 80% effectiveness, the R divisor becomes 2.3.  An R divisor of 2.3 turns an exponential outbreak that doubles every week -- think Italy or NYC in March -- into the number of infected petering off.

At 90% coverage and 80% effectiveness, the R divisor becomes 3.6.

And 80% effectiveness is out-of-my-ass.  If it is closer to 95% (ie, reduction in transmission in proportion to reduction in symptoms), the R divisor is 6.9.

A disease with a 4 day cycle that had an R number of 4 would go from 10 infections to 10 million under 2 months, way faster than Covid 19.  And an R number of 4 divided by 6.9 is 0.6.  A virus with a 0.6 R number goes from 1 million active infections to 10 in about 100 days (plus time for the last infected to recover); it is choked off and killed.

Annoyingly, it is the product of "willing to wear masks and not sing inside with each other" times "actually willing to take vaccine" that determines how fast you kill off Covid 19.  And the derp seems to correlate.


----------



## CapnZapp

Not sure if you intended to continue my argument only to immediately undercut it, by doing exactly what I argued against, which is to discuss other stuff than what I brought up... but let me do that thing too:


Ryujin said:


> And the more important number, overall, is the point at which we hit "herd immunity" as, after that, individual resistance largely becomes statistically immaterial.



You are exactly right except herd immunity is probably just an illusion and the important number overall for me is the percentage of not getting hospitalized, not getting a hose shoved down my throat, not being put in a medical coma, and not dying.

You assume this disease is going away which it most likely is not, and we will have to keep getting vaccinated for the foreseeable future. So... to make my point again: _it is the percentage against severe disease and death we should be discussing._


----------



## CapnZapp

NotAYakk said:


> And that (protection against hospitalization) is near 100% against the baseline strain from every vaccine.



That's my point!

Throwing around numbers like 86% only make people go "waitaminit - 92 is larger than 86 so I refuse the 86 vaccine, I must have the 92 one!" 

A much more useful bit of consumer information is "all vaccines are 99%"! 

Note: this is more of a worldwide perspective. In the U.S. you basically only use the two effective ones, so there this particular point is moot. (Instead you have fools refusing vaccines altogether, which is a different story) 

But in lots of countries, it's just tragic to see people refusing a vaccine because of its effectiveness against infection when it is its effectiveness against severe disease that to me is entirely obviously the much more relevant number.


----------



## Ryujin

CapnZapp said:


> Not sure if you intended to continue my argument only to immediately undercut it, by doing exactly what I argued against, which is to discuss other stuff than what I brought up... but let me do that thing too:
> 
> You are exactly right except herd immunity is probably just an illusion and the important number overall for me is the percentage of not getting hospitalized, not getting a hose shoved down my throat, not being put in a medical coma, and not dying.
> 
> You assume this disease is going away which it most likely is not, and we will have to keep getting vaccinated for the foreseeable future. So... to make my point again: _it is the percentage against severe disease and death we should be discussing._



Nope, that's not what I'm thinking about at all. I suspect that this will be around, at least for a while. What I am considering, however, is that the variants so far appear to be handled by the vaccines, to a greater or lesser degree. Getting to herd immunity means that we might be able to kill this thing off, in the long term, in the same way that Smallpox isn't exactly common anymore. That the severity of the disease is reduced, also, is a handy byproduct.


----------



## CapnZapp

Ryujin said:


> Nope, that's not what I'm thinking about at all. I suspect that this will be around, at least for a while. What I am considering, however, is that the variants so far appear to be handled by the vaccines, to a greater or lesser degree. Getting to herd immunity means that we might be able to kill this thing off, in the long term, in the same way that Smallpox isn't exactly common anymore. That the severity of the disease is reduced, also, is a handy byproduct.



Sharply reducing cases is obviously a good thing, not least because it gives the virus fewer opportunities to mutate.

But getting there will not happen quickly. I mean, when do you think 80-90% of Africa is vaccinated? (Heck, when do you think 80-90% of America is?!)

And for the record - "Never" is one depressingly likely answer. So...

The number I want to focus on is the protection against severe disease


----------



## Zardnaar

I don't want the AZ one but I don't think we're using it anyway. 

 Never really been worried about getting sick even a year ago it's everything else that I was worried about (others getting sick, collapse etc). 

 Planned trip to Europe probably canceled permeantly as there's going to be a few who don't vaccinate.


----------



## Hussar

Never minding things like private schools in Miami.  :/









						Miami private school won't employ teachers who get the Covid-19 vaccine
					

Centner Academy is basing its decision on information that has already been debunked.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## NotAYakk

AZ vaccine is less dangerous than driving to work.


Hussar said:


> Never minding things like private schools in Miami.  :/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Miami private school won't employ teachers who get the Covid-19 vaccine
> 
> 
> Centner Academy is basing its decision on information that has already been debunked.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com



The derp is strong


----------



## Istbor

You know... while I am loving, LOVING not going on FaceBook anymore. I do unfortunately miss out on things like, people believing vaccines can be 'shed' onto other people. 

That's like the craziest thing I have heard.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> I don't want the AZ one but I don't think we're using it anyway.




Because of blood clots?  This displays the usual human failure to understand risk.

The AZ vaccine was associated with one death per million uses.

In 2018 in New Zealand, driving led to about 8 deaths for every 100,000 people. Ergo, driving is _80 times more likel_y to kill you than the AZ vaccine.  But you still drive, right?


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> Because of blood clots?  This displays the usual human failure to understand risk.
> 
> The AZ vaccine was associated with one death per million uses.
> 
> In 2018 in New Zealand, driving led to about 8 deaths for every 100,000 people. Ergo, driving is _80 times more likel_y to kill you than the AZ vaccine.  But you still drive, right?



To be fair, you spend more time driving than getting injected.  

In a week, driving (or walking near a road) is only 1.5x deadlier than getting the AZ vaccine.  Less so if you aren't a 17 year old male, who drive up the driving death rates.

OTOH, AZ vaccine gives you a superpower.  Driving just gets you groceries.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Just got my second Pfizer shot on Monday. Tuesday was spent feeling like hot garbage. Today, I'm just tepid garbage. Worth it, though.


----------



## TheAlkaizer

I haven't been doing too good lately. I resumed taking appointments with my psychologist. We've talked about alot of stuff. But mainly about being socially isolated during the pandemic and also lacking creative outlets outside of work. Made me realize that TTRPGs played a bigger role in my life balance.


----------



## Cadence

One week after my second Pfizer dose.  In another week I might join the lunch group that was around for almost two decades pre-pandemic again.  Everyone else in it is older and so has had the ability to have their second dose for the recommended time for a while.   Only side effects for me was about two hours of headache the second day after.  In late May, I'm also looking to have a cookout and play cards with a small group  MtG players who have all been fully vaccinated.

So far SC supposedly has 41.2% of the age 15+ (even though vaccine is only 16+) with one vaccine, and 30.2% completed. One big free site in the state is shutting down due to lack of demand :-/   I wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of others do so shortly.    My son won't be able to get it until a month into the fall semester, assuming the approval is lowered to 12 years old.  Based on the 16-24 age group, I'm not optimistic many of his classmates will get it.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> To be fair, you spend more time driving than getting injected.




I think the point still stands - you drive for a year in NZ, the risk is 80x higher than getting the shot once.  To make them equal, you need to drop your driving to about 1% of what it usually is.  So, instead of driving every day, you only drive four days a year - once per quarter or thereabouts.


----------



## MarkB

Umbran said:


> I think the point still stands - you drive for a year in NZ, the risk is 80x higher than getting the shot once.  To make them equal, you need to drop your driving to about 1% of what it usually is.  So, instead of driving every day, you only drive four days a year - once per quarter or thereabouts.



That's very nearly as much driving as I've done in the last year, thanks to shielding and home deliveries.


----------



## Maxperson

CapnZapp said:


> That's my point!
> 
> Throwing around numbers like 86% only make people go "waitaminit - 92 is larger than 86 so I refuse the 86 vaccine, I must have the 92 one!"
> 
> A much more useful bit of consumer information is "all vaccines are 99%"!
> 
> Note: this is more of a worldwide perspective. In the U.S. you basically only use the two effective ones, so there this particular point is moot. (Instead you have fools refusing vaccines altogether, which is a different story)
> 
> But in lots of countries, it's just tragic to see people refusing a vaccine because of its effectiveness against infection when it is its effectiveness against severe disease that to me is entirely obviously the much more relevant number.



When it comes to the Moderna and the Pfizer, I agree with you.  However, given the rates of nasty damage to lungs in even asymptomatic victims of Covid, I don't want to catch it at all.  The keep me out of the hospital and alive aspect is great, but only as a back-up to not getting it in the first place.  I would have turned down the Johnson and Johnson for that reason.


----------



## Garthanos

NotAYakk said:


> AZ vaccine is less dangerous than driving to work.



humans are poor at risk assessment for all our brains do well... this is not one of them.


----------



## Garthanos

Maxperson said:


> When it comes to the Moderna and the Pfizer, I agree with you.



Indeed the Moderna and Pfizer do not even actually expose you to the virus...


----------



## Garthanos

The Johnson and Johnson Vaccine also did not expose you to live virus ... and is also non-propagating - I could not have convinced my mother to get it if it did.
How the Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Works


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Because of blood clots?  This displays the usual human failure to understand risk.
> 
> The AZ vaccine was associated with one death per million uses.
> 
> In 2018 in New Zealand, driving led to about 8 deaths for every 100,000 people. Ergo, driving is _80 times more likel_y to kill you than the AZ vaccine.  But you still drive, right?




 Na it's not that Pfizer one is 95% AZis what 70%? Crossing the road is more dangerous than Covid here. 

  I would use AZ if it was the only option.

 I'll pretty much use whatever the doctors says but as it turns out I'm not a fan of pain killers.

 The more microchips, mind control devices etc in the vaccine the better. Beam me up Scotty. Weeeeee


----------



## CapnZapp

Maxperson said:


> When it comes to the Moderna and the Pfizer, I agree with you.  However, given the rates of nasty damage to lungs in even asymptomatic victims of Covid, I don't want to catch it at all.  The keep me out of the hospital and alive aspect is great, but only as a back-up to not getting it in the first place.  I would have turned down the Johnson and Johnson for that reason.



Not sure if you mean "I would have taken Moderna before J&J" or if you mean "I would rather go unvaccinated than take J&J".

If the first, fair enough.


----------



## Maxperson

CapnZapp said:


> Not sure if you mean "I would have taken Moderna before J&J" or if you mean "I would rather go unvaccinated than take J&J".
> 
> If the first, fair enough.



Here in California it's not a matter of, "I would rather go unvaccinated than take J&J."  It's, "I would rather get Moderna or Pfizer than J&J and if one place had J&J, I would just make an appointment somewhere else and get one of the others."


----------



## Zardnaar

You get a choice?

 Last I heard I think we have vaccinated 3%. That was around a week ago.

 Not that we really need it ASAP other nations should take priority eg India.


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> You get a choice?
> 
> Last I heard I think we have vaccinated 3%. That was around a week ago.
> 
> Not that we really need it ASAP other nations should take priority eg India.



We have many places offering vaccine shots.  So yeah, we can call around and get the one we want pretty easily.


----------



## Whizbang Dustyboots

Zardnaar said:


> Na it's not that Pfizer one is 95% AZis what 70%? Crossing the road is more dangerous than Covid here.



Well, assuming that more virus isn't carried into the country when things open up more in the future. Right now, India is passing the virus back and forth like crazy, due to the lack of vaccine and densely packed cities. We're going to have plenty of variants around. Fingers crossed the current vaccines slow the new variants down. The good news is that developing updated vaccines will be far easier than it was in the past.


----------



## Whizbang Dustyboots

.


----------



## CapnZapp

Maxperson said:


> Here in California it's not a matter of, "I would rather go unvaccinated than take J&J."  It's, "I would rather get Moderna or Pfizer than J&J and if one place had J&J, I would just make an appointment somewhere else and get one of the others."



Phew


----------



## Ryujin

Whizbang Dustyboots said:


> Well, assuming that more virus isn't carried into the country when things open up more in the future. Right now, India is passing the virus back and forth like crazy, due to the lack of vaccine and densely packed cities. We're going to have plenty of variants around. Fingers crossed the current vaccines slow the new variants down. The good news is that developing updated vaccines will be far easier than it was in the past.



The city that I live in has something like a 46% South Asian population and the Federal Government wasn't doing a lot to curtail international flights. This likely plays a role in why we were something like 3x the Provincial average positivity rate, last week. Hopefully things will start to normalize a bit.

Some of the things that have been making the news show that the rules have been pretty meaningless. I can recall reading that an American CEO made something like three flights, back and forth to Canada, during lockdown when only essential travel was supposed to be permitted by air. Clearly, having money makes someone "essential."


----------



## Garthanos

The US now indeed has an abundance of vaccine options making up for previous issues I suppose.


----------



## Cadence

Garthanos said:


> The US now indeed has an abundance of vaccine options making up for previous issues I suppose.




Unfortunately we have an abundance of people with no interest in those options too...  :-/


----------



## Zardnaar

Whizbang Dustyboots said:


> Well, assuming that more virus isn't carried into the country when things open up more in the future. Right now, India is passing the virus back and forth like crazy, due to the lack of vaccine and densely packed cities. We're going to have plenty of variants around. Fingers crossed the current vaccines slow the new variants down. The good news is that developing updated vaccines will be far easier than it was in the past.




 Yeah they closed the border to India full stop. 

 Half of the qurantine cases were from India.


----------



## CapnZapp

Poor countries might not get vaccine for two years.









						Poorer countries might not get vaccinated until 2023
					

This inequality is baked into every step of the vaccine manufacturing process.




					www.vox.com


----------



## hopeless

Had my first jab a little under a month ago, my mum has had her second jab so here's hoping things improve from now on.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Yeah they closed the border to India full stop.
> 
> Half of the qurantine cases were from India.



India is way out of control horror zone style. The seemed to have been really lucky early on but they seem to have not taken it seriously


----------



## NotAYakk

Garthanos said:


> India is way out of control horror zone style. The seemed to have been really lucky early on but they seem to have not taken it seriously



India is catching up on Brazil, statistics wise.

Similarly, nationalist governments who bluster about strength and not do much of use.

It is a pattern.

Nationalist governments like using governments for their goals, but don't like making a government that actually does things for its own people.  And protecting the people from a pandemic requires lots of work from a central authority aimed at helping its own people.


----------



## Garthanos

NotAYakk said:


> India is catching up on Brazil, statistics wise.
> 
> Similarly, nationalist governments who bluster about strength and not do much of use.
> 
> It is a pattern.
> 
> Nationalist governments like using governments for their goals, but don't like making a government that actually does things for its own people.




If you can get people shouting "Yay team" somehow you do not need to actually do anything.



NotAYakk said:


> And protecting the people from a pandemic requires lots of work from a central authority aimed at helping its own people.



like this


----------



## Bedrockgames

CapnZapp said:


> Poor countries might not get vaccine for two years.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Poorer countries might not get vaccinated until 2023
> 
> 
> This inequality is baked into every step of the vaccine manufacturing process.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.vox.com




A good reason why we should have reformed the pharmaceutical industry when signs like their role in the opioid crisis and Shkreli's shenanigans (which others were doing too) emerged.


----------



## NotAYakk

In this case, if governments are willing to spend a few billion dollars on helping poorer countries get vaccines faster, I'm sure the pharma companies will send vaccines there instead of to the richer countries.

naughty word, at this point, letting the vaccines be exported to countries actually willing to put them into people's arms would result in more people at risk being vaccinated.

Mordana/Pfizer are both hard vaccines to produce; it is new tech.  Now, removing patent protection on the new tech would encourage other people to figure out how to produce it profitably at a lower price, but the per-dose costs don't look insanely high at this point.

AZ and J&J are trying to ramp up their production as fast as possible, and every dose is being snapped up whenever vaccine nationalism lets the vaccines actually reach people.

This isn't a pharma problem.  It is a "who pays for it" problem mostly, with a dash of nationalism to spice things up.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> F---, at this point...











NotAYakk said:


> Now, removing patent protection on the new tech would encourage other people to figure out how to produce it profitably at a lower price, but the per-dose costs don't look insanely high at this point.




Working out how to produce it at lower cost is a development effort - that takes time, likely months to years.  While in the long run it is helpful, in the sort run it'd increase time and cost to get stuff in people's arms.  Also, Moderna and Pfizer vaccines require deep refrigeration, that makes them incredibly had to work with in many places - these are not vaccines you want in areas with weak infrastructure, even if the cost per dose came down some

There are legal issues to removing patent protection - it isn't a thing the government can do on a whim, and doing so would freak the ever loving frak out of every technology company in the nation.  A government trying to unilaterally remove patent protection probably means lawsuits, because no company wants their rights ripped away.  And you should not expect the court precedent to go the way you want.  While the courts _might_ decide that a form of "eminent domain" may be exerted for a crisis in the US... we do not now have a crisis of production in the US.  And I don't think there's a precedent for asserting such government rights on behalf of people of other nations.


----------



## Bedrockgames

NotAYakk said:


> This isn't a pharma problem.  It is a "who pays for it" problem mostly, with a dash of nationalism to spice things up.




My criticism wasn't exclusive to pharmaceutical companies. I think there is a lot that rich countries should be doing here well. But I think focusing only on the role of wealthy countries and ignoring the profit motive among pharmaceutical companies, and dismissing things like ending the patent protection, really plays into the hands of greedy corporations that are positioning themselves to get richer and stronger off a pandemic that effects people from every country, every level of society and shouldn't be about making money


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> Working out how to produce it at lower cost is a development effort - that takes time, likely months to years.  While in the long run it is helpful, in the sort run it'd increase time and cost to get stuff in people's arms.  Also, Moderna and Pfizer vaccines require deep refrigeration, that makes them incredibly had to work with in many places - these are not vaccines you want in areas with weak infrastructure, even if the cost per dose came down some



In practice, working out how to produce something at a lower cost generally comes from producing more of it and doing small scale optimizations, while under pressure to reduce costs.

See What Is Wright's Law | Learning Curve of Innovation -- make more of stuff, and in almost every industry, price drops.  There has to be an incentive to actually capture such efficiencies.

Right now, due to IP law, there is little incentive in any company besides Phizer and Morderna to try to make the tricky lipid wrapping process of mRNA vaccines cheaper, and setting up a factory in places that grant them patent monopolies to try to do that isn't going to be viable.  OTOH, the AZ/JJ/NV and even the Chinese and Russian vaccines are alternatives to the mRNA ones, so there is some price pressure on M/Pf.  And places that don't respect US IP monopolies are trying to scale up mRNA based vaccines as well.

So there is hope that the costs will plummet.



Umbran said:


> There are legal issues to removing patent protection - it isn't a thing the government can do on a whim, and doing so would freak the ever loving frak out of every technology company in the nation.  A government trying to unilaterally remove patent protection probably means lawsuits, because no company wants their rights ripped away.  And you should not expect the court precedent to go the way you want.  While the courts _might_ decide that a form of "eminent domain" may be exerted for a crisis in the US... we do not now have a crisis of production in the US.  And I don't think there's a precedent for asserting such government rights on behalf of people of other nations.



No, this is what governments do.  They set the rules that determine what the legal issues are.  And governments determine what lawsuits are allowed.

There is precident that they can retroactively increase the length of protection under the IP statute, and the US supreme court said "this is completely up to congress".  It would be very strange if congress had nearly complete authority to extend the duration of patents and trademarks and dismissed all recourse from people harmed by that, and very limited ability to reduce the durations.  But I guess corporations are people and money is free speech, so who knows what the SCOTUS will come up with next.

Many nations already have exceptions for bio pharmaceutical patents, including mandatory licensing, including for domestic use.  OTOH, the USA usually places IP law demands in international trade treaties, which can bind other countries even if there is no domestic justification for the monopoly granted.

I don't see the incentive for the USA to do this.  Pharma are good campaign contributors, and the USA has enough domestic manufacturing they can vaccinate their population.  But the US-led world order that came out of the cold war is sort of limping along with blood leaking out at this point; maybe it will get bandaged up, or maybe not.

And IP law only holds if the benefits outweigh the costs.



Bedrockgames said:


> My criticism wasn't exclusive to pharmaceutical companies. I think there is a lot that rich countries should be doing here well. But I think focusing only on the role of wealthy countries and ignoring the profit motive among pharmaceutical companies, and dismissing things like ending the patent protection, really plays into the hands of greedy corporations that are positioning themselves to get richer and stronger off a pandemic that effects people from every country, every level of society and shouldn't be about making money



India, as I understand it, isn't paying much attention to international patents for domestic consumption.

The mRNA ones are tricky enough that nobody but the inventors can make them yet.  But AZ/JJ and the like are more traditional.

AZ in particular is producing the doses at basically cost; after paying for new factories, of course.  The deal was that Oxford found a 2nd or 3rd tier pharma manufacturer who was willing to become much larger in exchange for producing a pile of vaccine that wasn't going to make them money directly; instead, they'll have goodwill and a much larger manufacturing base, which they can use to produce _other_ stuff.

The medicines are really being priced for "we want it to be low enough that everyone on the planet uses ours", and the raw number of alternatives is also huge at making everyone keeps prices down.  If one cost 10x as much as another, the other one will get used.

Right now, the prices are pretty insanely low, considering that the real problem is *total supply* not price per dose.


----------



## Bedrockgames

There has been a lot of good news coverage in the AP about how it is more than a supply issue, how greed and patents are in fact a hurdle when it comes to vaccines and pharmaceutical companies. But way above my pay grade. Not going to debate you but definitely think the past behavior of big pharma indicates we should be extremely sjeptucal about what their messaging on the supply issue (and that doesn’t mean rich countries can’t also be taken to task for not sharing the vaccine: greed of country, greed of corporation, both are bad things here)


----------



## Garthanos

NotAYakk said:


> The mRNA ones are tricky enough that nobody but the inventors can make them yet.  But AZ/JJ and the like ar



Trickier to distribute too... but seem fast to make if you have the tech (and maybe adjust to new diseases)


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Right now, due to IP law, there is little incentive in any company besides Phizer and Morderna to try to make the tricky lipid wrapping process of mRNA vaccines cheaper, and setting up a factory in places that grant them patent monopolies to try to do that isn't going to be viable.




I think we are talking past each other.  Incentive or not, funding or not, making improvements _TAKES TIME_.  It isn't like you remove the IP restriction, and next week there's a flood of cheap Pfizer-type vaccine on the market!  There would likely be _months_ of spin up time before anyone else can make it at scale at all, and more months before they could actually improve the process, especially because major process change probably requires a new round of testing and certification for use.

If we lifted the IP restriction today, I don't think we'd see much improvement in cost until 2022.  If, say, India's current predicament is the motivator, this is not a viable solution.



NotAYakk said:


> No, this is what governments do.  They set the rules that determine what the legal issues are.  And governments determine what lawsuits are allowed.




If you aren't living in a dictatorship, the government has limits.  And, at least here, "the government" is not one entity.  It is at least three.  And one of them has the specific job of checking whether the other two are out of bounds.  



NotAYakk said:


> There is precident that they can retroactively increase the length of protection under the IP statute, and the US supreme court said "this is completely up to congress".




There's very little legal similarity between broadly extending rights, and cancelling rights to specific items.

We aren't talking about a general change to IP law.  We are talking about cancelling IP rights on two specific items.  This amounts to the government annexing (some would say, "stealing") Pfizer's and Moderna's property.  There are already Constitutional limits on government seizure of property, you know.  It is in the 5th Amendment - "...nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation."

The Congress alone is not going to change the Constitution for the vaccine.  

If the US government wants to remove the IP protection from these vaccines, they will have to buy them, at fair market value.


----------



## Zardnaar

Short term even if you did forcibly buy the you might bite yourself in the ass. 

 Would the vaccines have been deviled as fast if the companies couldn't make bank on them? 

 IP should probably expire after the death of the creator or 25 years. You can only IP a brand eg McDonalds not the products.. 

 Means the corporations etc have to invent new stuff all the time instead of milking stuff for generations.


----------



## Zardnaar

9 border workers fired for refusing vaccines.









						Covid-19: Nine Customs border workers fired after refusing jab
					

“It’s been very, very unpleasant, very unprofessional, and it’s devastating," a sacked worker says.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 By law you can refuse a vaccine but it's not covered in employment law. 

 Basically similar to wear what you want (in private) but the boss can make you wear a uniform or fire your ass. 

 You can't refuse work boots and hi vis vest either on job sites so there's also that.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> IP should probably expire after the death of the creator or 25 years. You can only IP a brand eg McDonalds not the products..



The Brand is a matter of Trademark and separate from copyright which is also separate from patents which are the actual methods used.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> By law you can refuse a vaccine but it's not covered in employment law.
> 
> Basically similar to wear what you want (in private) but the boss can make you wear a uniform or fire your ass.
> 
> You can't refuse work boots and hi vis vest either on job sites so there's also that.



I think in practice employers can fire you for almost any random STUFF they want to we have in the US a few explicit exceptions that can often be very difficult to prove.

Language, please.


----------



## Hussar

While I approve of the move to fire folks that refuse to get vaccinated, there's no way that any politician is going to try to make this a law.  It is a pretty hefty violation of rights, regardless of how justified, and sets a really, really scary precedence.

I mean, if I can fire you for not getting a medical treatment, where does that end?  Will employers now require vaccination lists before hiring?  How invasive into your privacy can they get?  Do existing issues like, say, diabetes, allow employers to refuse to hire or fire an employee?  After all, someone with diabetes is far more likely to have problems than someone without.

IANAL, but, that's a pretty terrifying concept.  I get the public safety argument, but the existence of things like that school in Miami, shows that employers are not medical professionals and are potentially wrong about the risks involved.  Not to be a douche here, but, what are the odds of an unvaccinated worker spreading coronavirus?  I don't know, and I'm pretty sure that most people don't either. Which is different from, say, wearing a hardhat, where we can calculate the odds - or, rather, the odds have already been calculated by someone somewhere.  

While a large part of me applauds them for taking a stand against people refusing the vaccine, the implications and precedence makes my skin crawl.


----------



## Mikeythorn

I don’t think it is too different from any other safety requirement. A builder who refused to wear a hard hat on a demolition site shouldn’t be permitted on the site. A worker dealing with the public who is not vaccinated should not be dealing with the public. If neither are able to do their job, then neither should be expected to retain that job.


----------



## Cadence

Hussar said:


> While I approve of the move to fire folks that refuse to get vaccinated, there's no way that any politician is going to try to make this a law.  It is a pretty hefty violation of rights, regardless of how justified, and sets a really, really scary precedence.




For the US...

Isn't the law in many states currently "at-will" employment,  where you can be fired for any reason that isn't related to being in a protected class or doesn't violate the contract you were hired under?   Not getting vaccinated for religious or medical reasons would be protected, is any other reason?

In any case, some states have some required immunizations for hospital employees, for example: State Immunization Laws for Healthcare Workers and Patients | CDC

I guess we'll see if it being an emergency use authorization matters when someone sues about losing a job over it.  Some hospitals in TX, for example, have required it: Hospitals, Colleges Requiring COVID-19 Vaccination .


----------



## Garthanos

Cadence said:


> Not getting vaccinated for religious or medical reasons would be protected, is any other reason?



If I suddenly decide my religion says I have to have my hair rainbow colored  (this is what anti-vaxxers have done the equivalent of starting a new religion where they make that a feature) is firing me for having rainbow colored hair then firing for religious reasons?


----------



## Hussar

Garthanos said:


> If I suddenly decide my religion says I have to have my hair rainbow colored  (this is what anti-vaxxers have done the equivalent of starting a new religion where they make that a feature) is firing me for having rainbow colored hair then firing for religious reasons?



If you can prove in a court of law that your religion says that you have to have rainbow colored hair, then, yes, it would.  Note, hair issues have come up in Canada before.  See Baltej Singh Dhillon, for an example.
​


----------



## Cadence

Garthanos said:


> If I suddenly decide my religion says I have to have my hair rainbow colored  (this is what anti-vaxxers have done the equivalent of starting a new religion where they make that a feature) is firing me for having rainbow colored hair then firing for religious reasons?



While the SCOUTS has said it isn't there business to judge the sincerity of folks religious beliefs, no one quickly jumped to the defense in Cavanaugh v. Bartelt in Nebraska about Pastafarianism (and I'm really disappointed it didn't get pushed up higher to get SCOTUS to formally say some things aren't protected and the courts decide, or that everything is protected - especially since one of the birefs in Masterpiece Cakeshop cited it).


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> If you can prove in a court of law that your religion says that you have to have rainbow colored hair, then, yes, it would.  Note, hair issues have come up in Canada before.  See Baltej Singh Dhillon, for an example.
> ​



Just make sure that you skip his more recent escapades and only look at the news stories from the late '80s. The newer reports on him have nothing to do with the turban issue.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> If I suddenly decide my religion says I have to have my hair rainbow colored  (this is what anti-vaxxers have done the equivalent of starting a new religion where they make that a feature) is firing me for having rainbow colored hair then firing for religious reasons?




 Religion here is specifically covered by laws preventing discrimination. 

 Easiest get around is health and safety rules.


----------



## Eltab

Mikeythorn said:


> I don’t think it is too different from any other safety requirement. A builder who refused to wear a hard hat on a demolition site shouldn’t be permitted on the site. *A worker dealing with the public who is not vaccinated should not be dealing with the public.* If neither are able to do their job, then neither should be expected to retain that job.



If the worker got immunity the natural way (caught the virus and kicked it) then that worker need not be vaccinated.  Give the employee a Corona-antibody test to make sure.  If they are full of antibodies, get off their back.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Eltab said:


> If the worker got immunity the natural way (caught the virus and kicked it) then that worker need not be vaccinated.  Give the employee a Corona-antibody test to make sure.  If they are full of antibodies, get off their back.



That seems reasonable in most circumstances. The original case being talked about originated in New Zealand though, so that case almost certainly could not be made by the sacked workers.


----------



## Zardnaar

It's kind of hard to get fired here.  Generally theft and assault will do it, or whatever else the the employee defines as serious misconduct in the contract. 

Certain categories the employer can't opt out of eg gender, sexuality, politics, religion. 

 Easiest way is to fire someone is health and safety so the vaccine can be treated as safety equipment. 

 The government can't force you to take the vaccine, neither can your employer. 

 You can't force your employer to retain you if you don't follow the rules.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> You can't force your employer to retain you if you don't follow the rules.



That, again, is a sticky, sticky issue.  Particularly if it is actually a religious issue.  Like NZ, it's hard to get fired in Canada.  And, let's be honest here, in an organization as large as border guards, there surely must be desk jobs that aren't regularly facing the public where the mask mandate is not as much of an issue.  I doubt this is quite as cut and dried as you're making it out to be.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> That, again, is a sticky, sticky issue.  Particularly if it is actually a religious issue.  Like NZ, it's hard to get fired in Canada.  And, let's be honest here, in an organization as large as border guards, there surely must be desk jobs that aren't regularly facing the public where the mask mandate is not as much of an issue.  I doubt this is quite as cut and dried as you're making it out to be.




 Religion is covered by employment law. 

 Things not specifically covered the employer can put in the contract and they can easy require the vaccine as part of the job requirements. 

 My wife's aunt got vaccinated today and it's essentially mandatory for her (or find a new job). She works in an old folks home.  

 Much like free speech the government can't muzzle you but your boss can. I can walk down the street in a Nazi uniform bit I can't refuse to wear the uniform at McDonald's. 

 At least without going through the disciplinary process. I can get kicked off a job site for not wearing hi vis vest or steelcap boots. 

 Bill if Rights covers refusing a vaccine but they can amend that easy enough, make exceptions if required and in any event it doesn't cover employment law. 

 Simple act of parliament could also revoke that law if required. They just need a simple majority and they have that winning an outright majority last year due to Covid response basically. 

 Reading the article I posted they can dispute the firing bit they're still gone at best they get a payout and you can't really sue here. Well you can but even if you win you're not going to make megabucks and you still have no job.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> While I approve of the move to fire folks that refuse to get vaccinated, there's no way that any politician is going to try to make this a law.  It is a pretty hefty violation of rights, regardless of how justified, and sets a really, really scary precedence.
> 
> I mean, if I can fire you for not getting a medical treatment, where does that end?




You cannot fire me for not getting a medical treatment.  You can (and should) fire me if I am willfully a health threat to my coworkers and customers.


----------



## Garthanos

Eltab said:


> If the worker got immunity the natural way (caught the virus and kicked it) then that worker need not be vaccinated.  Give the employee a Corona-antibody test to make sure.  If they are full of antibodies, get off their back.



From all I have read we arent even sure whether the "natural way" really works for generating immunity (though it most likely will)


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> If the worker got immunity the natural way (caught the virus and kicked it) then that worker need not be vaccinated.




It isn't that simple, especially as variants begin to crop up.  Current CDC advice is that those who have had the disease should still be vaccinated.



> Give the employee a Corona-antibody test to make sure.  If they are full of antibodies, get off their back.




The antibody tests we have do not measure, gauge, or otherwise indicate immunity.


----------



## Ryujin

I thought of starting a new thread for this question, but it didn't seem right when this one already existed. How is everyone maintaining their sanity, more than a year into this mess? What hobbies have you been practicing? Have you been making use of online gaming tools? Other things?


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> I thought of starting a new thread for this question, but it didn't seem right when this one already existed. How is everyone maintaining their sanity, more than a year into this mess? What hobbies have you been practicing? Have you been making use of online gaming tools? Other things?




Before covid, I was running my usual game (a campaign whose end coincidentally aligned with lockdowns anyway), and playing in on D&D game.

Now, I'm playing in 3 D&D games and one Fate Accelerated game online, and I'm not running anything.  Roll20, Owlbear Rodeo, Discord and Zoom (in various combinations) have been the toolsets of choice.

My household income has been pretty secure in all this, so I have spread some money around to smaller game companies, picking up sets of rules and absorbing them for possible post-covid use.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Before covid, I was running my usual game (a campaign whose end coincidentally aligned with lockdowns anyway), and playing in on D&D game.
> 
> Now, I'm playing in 3 D&D games and one Fate Accelerated game online, and I'm not running anything.  Roll20, Owlbear Rodeo, Discord and Zoom (in various combinations) have been the toolsets of choice.
> 
> My household income has been pretty secure in all this, so I have spread some money around to smaller game companies, picking up sets of rules and absorbing them for possible post-covid use.



That's the sort of thing that I've been wondering about: Does the current world situation mean that it's easier to game, online, than it was to try and get the group together physically? Despite having many of the resources that you mention (Discord, Roll20, Fantasy Grounds/FGUnity), I've not been playing. I have, however, picked up a few rule sets to play around with, most notably the second edition of Demon Hunters and the new releases of TORG, both of which are pretty cinematic in style, though in markedly different ways.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> That's the sort of thing that I've been wondering about: Does the current world situation mean that it's easier to game, online, than it was to try and get the group together physically?




Not in my experience.   In the past, the one game I ran and the one I played in ran pretty reliably.  Now, I am plying in four games, but none of them are as reliable as my in-person games were.  I think I wind up in, on average, about the same number of sessions per week actually running.


----------



## MarkB

Ryujin said:


> I thought of starting a new thread for this question, but it didn't seem right when this one already existed. How is everyone maintaining their sanity, more than a year into this mess? What hobbies have you been practicing? Have you been making use of online gaming tools? Other things?



I've always been a bit of a loner, stay at home for most of my holiday time, and don't have much in the way of friends outside our local gaming groups. I've had a couple of downer days, but for the most part it's been


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> You cannot fire me for not getting a medical treatment.  You can (and should) fire me if I am willfully a health threat to my coworkers and customers.



I'm pretty sure employers don't have to employ anyone who hasn't gotten the vaccine. Medical procedure is not a protected status. The issue is that with HIPAA, they can't require employees to tell them if they've gotten the vaccine or not, so they would have no way of knowing.

And then there are places like this cropping up now. 









						How a Miami School Became a Beacon for Anti-Vaxxers
					

MIAMI — A fifth-grade math and science teacher peddled a bogus conspiracy theory Wednesday to students at Centner Academy, a private school in Miami, warning them that they should not hug parents who had been vaccinated against the coronavirus for more than five seconds because they might be...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Ryujin

MarkB said:


> I've always been a bit of a loner, stay at home for most of my holiday time, and don't have much in the way of friends outside our local gaming groups. I've had a couple of downer days, but for the most part it's been



I get the loner thing. I'm pretty introverted. It's easier to talk to people who are a continent away, than who are in easy driving distance. Might be why I have so many friends on the west coast of the US, when I live in Toronto


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> The issue is that with HIPAA, they can't require employees to tell them if they've gotten the vaccine or not, so they would have no way of knowing.




I believe this is inaccurate.  HIPAA is generally about how the various people who have your health information can manage it.  So, HIPAA says that your doctor or insurance company cannot tell your employer your status without your express permission.  It does not regulate whether your employer can require you, yourself, to show your vax card.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Maxperson said:


> I'm pretty sure employers don't have to employ anyone who hasn't gotten the vaccine. Medical procedure is not a protected status. The issue is that with HIPAA, they can't require employees to tell them if they've gotten the vaccine or not, so they would have no way of knowing.



Employers can indeed ask about symptoms, C19 vaccination status, and related questions.  But they also have to safeguard that information- there are strict limits to how and with whom they can share such info.

(Caveat: if the employee overshares information with the employer, the employer isn’t required to toss/disregard such information.  The employer must still treat it with the same safeguards as the employee’s other information, though.)









						Can my employer legally ask if I received the COVID-19 vaccine?
					

(ABC4) – The COVID-19 pandemic has, in the words of Greg Skordas, a lawyer in Salt Lake City, “created all kinds of special circumstances and special exceptions to the rules that we&#82…




					www.abc4.com
				






COVID-19: What Employers Need to Know About HIPAA





__





						What You Should Know About COVID-19 and the ADA, the Rehabilitation Act, and Other EEO Laws | U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission
					

INTRODUCTION  Technical Assistance Questions and Answers - Updated on December 14, 2021.




					www.eeoc.gov
				






> A.8. May employers ask all employees physically entering the workplace if they have been diagnosed with or tested for COVID-19? (9/8/20; adapted from 3/27/20 Webinar Question 1)
> Yes. Employers may ask all employees who will be physically entering the workplace if they have COVID-19 or symptoms associated with COVID-19, and ask if they have been tested for COVID-19. Symptoms associated with COVID-19 include, for example, fever, chills, cough, and shortness of breath. The CDC has identified a current list of symptoms.
> An employer may exclude those with COVID-19, or symptoms associated with COVID-19, from the workplace because, as EEOC has stated, their presence would pose a direct threat to the health or safety of others. However, for those employees who are teleworking and are not physically interacting with coworkers or others (for example, customers), the employer would generally not be permitted to ask these questions.
> A.9. May a manager ask only one employee—as opposed to asking all employees—questions designed to determine if she has COVID-19, or require that this employee alone have her temperature taken or undergo other screening or testing? (9/8/20; adapted from 3/27/20 Webinar Question 3)
> If an employer wishes to ask only a particular employee to answer such questions, or to have her temperature taken or undergo other screening or testing, the ADA requires the employer to have a reasonable belief based on objective evidence that this person might have the disease. So, it is important for the employer to consider why it wishes to take these actions regarding this particular employee, such as a display of COVID-19 symptoms. In addition, the ADA does not interfere with employers following recommendations by the CDC or other public health authorities regarding whether, when, and for whom testing or other screening is appropriate.
> 
> (Edit)
> 
> A.11. What may an employer do under the ADA if an employee refuses to permit the employer to take his temperature or refuses to answer questions about whether he has COVID-19, has symptoms associated with COVID-19, or has been tested for COVID-19? (9/8/20; adapted from 3/27/20 Webinar Question 2)
> Under the circumstances existing currently, the ADA allows an employer to bar an employee from physical presence in the workplace if he refuses to have his temperature taken or refuses to answer questions about whether he has COVID-19, has symptoms associated with COVID-19, or has been tested for COVID-19. To gain the cooperation of employees, however, employers may wish to ask the reasons for the employee’s refusal. The employer may be able to provide information or reassurance that they are taking these steps to ensure the safety of everyone in the workplace, and that these steps are consistent with health screening recommendations from CDC. Sometimes, employees are reluctant to provide medical information because they fear an employer may widely spread such personal medical information throughout the workplace. The ADA prohibits such broad disclosures. Alternatively, if an employee requests reasonable accommodation with respect to screening, the usual accommodation process should be followed; this is discussed in Question G.7.
> 
> (Edit)
> 
> K.3. Is asking or requiring an employee to show proof of receipt of a COVID-19 vaccination a disability-related inquiry? (12/16/20)
> No.  There are many reasons that may explain why an employee has not been vaccinated, which may or may not be disability-related.  Simply requesting proof of receipt of a COVID-19 vaccination is not likely to elicit information about a disability and, therefore, is not a disability-related inquiry.  However, subsequent employer questions, such as asking why an individual did not receive a vaccination, may elicit information about a disability and would be subject to the pertinent ADA standard that they be “job-related and consistent with business necessity.”  If an employer requires employees to provide proof that they have received a COVID-19 vaccination from a pharmacy or their own health care provider, the employer may want to warn the employee not to provide any medical information as part of the proof in order to avoid implicating the ADA.


----------



## Janx

related to HIPAA, I am surprised OSHA hasn't weighed in on Covid.  It sure seems like they'd be required to mandate a safe working environment which includes masks for everybody and six foot gaps, etc.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> I believe this is inaccurate.  HIPAA is generally about how the various people who have your health information can manage it.  So, HIPAA says that your doctor or insurance company cannot tell your employer your status without your express permission.  It does not regulate whether your employer can require you, yourself, to show your vax card.
> 
> 
> For some employers, there can be a hitch in that they may not have the require mechanisms in place to protect that information once they've given it to you.  But that's a separate issue.



Yeah.  I've been looking at it and you can ask for it, but it's a two-edged sword.  You can't ask about disabilities, and the answer you get can give you information you aren't allowed to ask for.  This is especially true if you ask follow-up questions like why haven't they gotten the vaccine. 

What's also interesting is that they are saying that there's a possibility that if your work requires vaccination and you get it, then the vaccination is work related and any side effects might fall under Workers Compensation if they are bad enough.


----------



## MarkB

Maxperson said:


> Yeah.  I've been looking at it and you can ask for it, but it's a two-edged sword.  You can't ask about disabilities, and the answer you get can give you information you aren't allowed to ask for.  This is especially true if you ask follow-up questions like why haven't they gotten the vaccine.



In Europe and the UK this sort of thing is covered by the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and it can be a real tight-rope for companies to walk in order to ensure that the information is accessible by those who need it, but unavailable elsewhere in the company. Especially with all the online tools these days that are designed to make it easier for colleagues and departments to communicate and share data.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> What's also interesting is that they are saying that there's a possibility that if your work requires vaccination and you get it, then the vaccination is work related and any side effects might fall under Workers Compensation if they are bad enough.




Documenting such for worker's comp would probably be difficult, as the basic side-effects are transient.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> Documenting such for worker's comp would probably be difficult, as the basic side-effects are transient.



Yeah.  I think they're talking about the rarer side effects.


----------



## billd91

Janx said:


> related to HIPAA, I am surprised OSHA hasn't weighed in on Covid.  It sure seems like they'd be required to mandate a safe working environment which includes masks for everybody and six foot gaps, etc.



I'm not surprised. OSHA takes its marching orders from the White House as part of the Department of Labor. In the Biden administration, we might see something come out of OSHA, but it will be months before it can be implemented. 
Certain types of presidents, not saying who, aren't exactly the types to push regulations on businesses, even if in the interests of worker health...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Janx said:


> related to HIPAA, I am surprised OSHA hasn't weighed in on Covid.  It sure seems like they'd be required to mandate a safe working environment which includes masks for everybody and six foot gaps, etc.



They have, in tems of how C19 relates to workplace safety in general.  Nothing specific to just COVID, though.





__





						Protecting Workers: Guidance on Mitigating and Preventing the Spread of COVID-19 in the Workplace | Occupational Safety and Health Administration
					






					www.osha.gov


----------



## Zardnaar

In America isn't it easier to fire people eg if your boss doesn't like the colour of your shoelaces?

Here they can ask to see your ACC history  which documents your injuries basically since your were born. I applied for a job and it had a fractured finger from 1992 high school on it. 

 You don't have to provide it but they don't have to hire you either. It's basically so you can't hide injuries relevant to job. I've had cases were people have gone I can't do xyz which is fine up to a point but when 2/4 start doing it and you have to do 3 times the work I just said if you can't do it leave. 

 Similar issue on other jobsite hired an older guy who couldn't physically do much and another new hire was off two weeks in due to her wrists. At that point you stop covering for people.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> In America isn't it easier to fire people eg if your boss doesn't like the colour of your shoelaces?



It varies, State to State. In "Right to Work" States you can fire people for nothing at all. In other words you can pretty much fire someone for anything, as long as you aren't obvious about it being an explicitly disallowed reason. At least that's how I view it from the outside, looking in.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> In America isn't it easier to fire people eg if your boss doesn't like the colour of your shoelaces?




That depends on where you are, and what your contractual relationship with the employer is like.  



Zardnaar said:


> Here they can ask to see your ACC history  which documents your injuries basically since your were born. I applied for a job and it had a fractured finger from 1992 high school on it.
> 
> You don't have to provide it but they don't have to hire you either.




In the US, the Americans with Disabilities Act (a.k.a. the ADA) places strict limitations on what an employer can ask.   In general, they can ask if you are able to complete job-relevant tasks, like, "Can you regularly lift loads of 50 pounds?" if they expect you to be working in a warehouse.  But they do not get to see general lists of medical records.

Note that in the US, there is _no such thing_ as centralized medical data, no one master list of your medical history that anyone can refer to.  Your information is scattered among the various medical facilities you may have visited in your life, and the various insurance companies you have used.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> It varies, State to State. In "Right to Work" States ...




I think you mean "Employment at will".  We should note that "Employment at will" is a sort of default state - in any such state, you may still have a contract (especially in a union shop) that requires giving cause for dismissal.

"Right to work," in the US is a doctrine that a worker's union cannot place employment restrictions on non-union employees - most commonly, they cannot require non-union employees pay fees to the union, even if the non-union employee benefits from the collective bargaining of the union.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> I think you mean "Employment at will".  We should note that "Employment at will" is a sort of default state - in any such state, you may still have a contract (especially in a union shop) that requires giving cause for dismissal.
> 
> "Right to work," in the US is a doctrine that a worker's union cannot place employment restrictions on non-union employees - most commonly, they cannot require non-union employees pay fees to the union, even if the non-union employee benefits from the collective bargaining of the union.



I keep hearing the terms "At Will Employment" and "Right to Work" used essentially interchangeably. I don't know if that's legally or doctrinally correct. I do know that it should more appropriately be called something like "Right to Fire", because that's essentially what it is. It's not like a worker has ever been required to give a legal reason to quit their job.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> I keep hearing the terms "At Will Employment" and "Right to Work" used essentially interchangeably.




Yeah, well, people get sloppy.  In the broader world, "Right to work" is a more positive thing about human rights.  Folks have a right to make a living, basically.  Unfortunately in the US, the term got co-opted in the power struggles between employers and unions.  Further than that, and the discussion probably gets political, and union history isn't what the thread's about.



Ryujin said:


> I don't know if that's legally or doctrinally correct. I do know that it should more appropriately be called something like "Right to Fire", because that's essentially what it is. It's not like a worker has ever been required to give a legal reason to quit their job.




While in current practice, it comes out a lot like "right to fire", in historical context we should not underestimate the ability of a wealthy employer to find a way to bludgeon employees if allowed to do so.  If you do not establish that a worker does actually have a right to leave a job, then employees who try to go to, say, a competitor, could be legally harassed.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> In America isn't it easier to fire people eg if your boss doesn't like the colour of your shoelaces?



Or they think your toes are too long.... by and large in most states the idea of workers being protected seems mostly myth.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Or they think your toes are too long.... by and large in most states the idea of workers being protected seems mostly myth.




 Ah a lot harder to fire someone here. There's a disputes tribunal that sides with the employee around 70% of the time. 

 You can't get fired on the spot at least without the risk of having to pay out. 

 If a boss cares about mandatory vaccinations they can add it to the health and safety guidelines or the government can mandate it for certain professions or public sector type jobs. 

 US presidents more powerful internationally at least from government pov not military, Primeministers seem to have more power internally if they can convince their party to go along with it.


----------



## Hussar

Well that’s part and parcel of the parliamentary system and how strong party whips are. In Canada we basically elect four year dictatorships.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Well that’s part and parcel of the parliamentary system and how strong party whips are. In Canada we basically elect four year dictatorships.




They used emergency laws here from the 1950's and rushed some laws through. 

 PMs also done some thing that haven't been done since 1938. 

 People kinda forget that when push comes to shove.....


----------



## Hussar

Emergency powers acts can’t permanently alter constitutions.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Emergency powers acts can’t permanently alter constitutions.




 We don't have a constitution. Pretty much everything can be changed with a simple act of parliament even if it was illegal.


----------



## CapnZapp

Wasn't there a law where Parliament forbade a new election before five years had passed, unless two thirds voted to hold an early election?

And when the new PM wanted a pop election (or whatever it's called) they simply changed the law to add "every five years or next Thursday whichever is closest"... (paraphrasing) which only required a simple majority!


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> Well that’s part and parcel of the parliamentary system and how strong party whips are. In Canada we basically elect four year dictatorships.



Except when there's a minority government. Then we seem to actually get reasonable leadership, because everyone is too scared to upset the apple cart.


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> Wasn't there a law where Parliament forbade a new election before five years had passed, unless two thirds voted to hold an early election?
> 
> And when the new PM wanted a pop election (or whatever it's called) they simply changed the law to add "every five years or next Thursday whichever is closest"... (paraphrasing) which only required a simple majority!




 What country are you referring to?


----------



## Umbran

Hey, folks?  This is now politics.  Let us collectively walk away from that, please and thank you.


----------



## Deset Gled

Ryujin said:


> That's the sort of thing that I've been wondering about: Does the current world situation mean that it's easier to game, online, than it was to try and get the group together physically? Despite having many of the resources that you mention (Discord, Roll20, Fantasy Grounds/FGUnity), I've not been playing. I have, however, picked up a few rule sets to play around with, most notably the second edition of Demon Hunters and the new releases of TORG, both of which are pretty cinematic in style, though in markedly different ways.




My D&Ding has increased during the pandemic.  Before COVID I had an in-person gaming group, but our get-togethers were irregular.  The pandemic dissolved that group.  But I then became part of a Roll20 group that meets every week.  The end result is that my gaming is much more regular and frequent.  One of my kids is also now in a virtual D&D campaign that was started by another parent to increase socialization.


----------



## Ryujin

Deset Gled said:


> My D&Ding has increased during the pandemic.  Before COVID I had an in-person gaming group, but our get-togethers were irregular.  The pandemic dissolved that group.  But I then became part of a Roll20 group that meets every week.  The end result is that my gaming is much more regular and frequent.  One of my kids is also now in a virtual D&D campaign that was started by another parent to increase socialization.



I was wondering if that might not be the case for some people. My own usual group hasn't gotten together in more than 5 years now, because life got in the way. It became impossible for most to get together on a regular basis and things just sort of fell apart. Back then I even set up a computer for remote access via Skype, with camera, so that two of the players who could only be remote at the time would have a virtual "seat" at the table. Two sessions and they were pretty much done, despite the remote access working very well.

I did mis speak earlier, when I said that I hadn't been playing at all. There were a couple of months, December through January, in which I was playing via Roll20 with some folks I met on the Zombie Orpheus Discord channel. The DM was from Cannes, FR and the other two players were from Knoxville, TN, US. Made for some pretty interesting sessions but, unfortunately, the DM travels a fair bit for work and things have fallen by the wayside.


----------



## Cadence

Ryujin said:


> I thought of starting a new thread for this question, but it didn't seem right when this one already existed. How is everyone maintaining their sanity, more than a year into this mess? What hobbies have you been practicing? Have you been making use of online gaming tools? Other things?




On-line has made it easy to get a game going for my 11yo and two of his friends (in person with driving in a non-COVID year might have been trouble).  Google meet.

Got back into a D&D for the first time in quite a while.   Discord (Avrae) and zoom for sharing a map and video/audio.  The players are in multiple states so this game wouldn't have fired without the on-line things.  

MtG has been saved by not-quite-weekly commander games using zoom (video) and discord (sound).  [Spelltable didn't work well].  Really miss being able to go to the shop for that.


----------



## Ryujin

Cadence said:


> On-line has made it easy to get a game going for my 11yo and two of his friends (in person with driving in a non-COVID year might have been trouble).  Google meet.
> 
> Got back into a D&D for the first time in quite a while.   Discord (Avrae) and zoom for sharing a map and video/audio.  The players are in multiple states so this game wouldn't have fired without the on-line things.
> 
> MtG has been saved by not-quite-weekly commander games using zoom (video) and discord (sound).  [Spelltable didn't work well].  Really miss being able to go to the shop for that.



Zoom has been a minor saviour in these times. I haven't been able to visit the West Coast, however, I've been able to meet with friends there via Zoom. I have a witchy friend there who does occasional meets on the Celtic festival days, and such. Usually just 4-8 of us for an hour or two.


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Employers can indeed ask about symptoms, C19 vaccination status, and related questions.  But they also have to safeguard that information- there are strict limits to how and with whom they can share such info.
> 
> (Caveat: if the employee overshares information with the employer, the employer isn’t required to toss/disregard such information.  The employer must still treat it with the same safeguards as the employee’s other information, though.)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Can my employer legally ask if I received the COVID-19 vaccine?
> 
> 
> (ABC4) – The COVID-19 pandemic has, in the words of Greg Skordas, a lawyer in Salt Lake City, “created all kinds of special circumstances and special exceptions to the rules that we&#82…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.abc4.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19: What Employers Need to Know About HIPAA
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What You Should Know About COVID-19 and the ADA, the Rehabilitation Act, and Other EEO Laws | U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission
> 
> 
> INTRODUCTION  Technical Assistance Questions and Answers - Updated on December 14, 2021.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.eeoc.gov



I read this article today.  









						Can you be fired for refusing to get a COVID-19 vaccine? America is about to find out
					

A court date on an early test is coming up later in May, and that's just one of several lawsuits making their way through the system.




					www.marketwatch.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Maxperson said:


> I read this article today.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Can you be fired for refusing to get a COVID-19 vaccine? America is about to find out
> 
> 
> A court date on an early test is coming up later in May, and that's just one of several lawsuits making their way through the system.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.marketwatch.com



I tried following the link, but it didn’t work for me.


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I tried following the link, but it didn’t work for me.



Weird.  I clicked it in your quote of my post and it worked for me just fine.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Maxperson said:


> Weird.  I clicked it in your quote of my post and it worked for me just fine.



Weirder still- it’s working for me, now.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> I read this article today.




The article says it put the guy in an "impossible position".  Says his was an "informed medical position".  What malarkey.  

You want a job in public safety?  Then you have to act in accordance with the needs of public safety - which includes public health.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The case will probably depend on whether the emergency approval process of the C19 vaccines is considered legally equivalent to the regular vaccine approval process.  That’s the only hole I see in the case.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> The article says it put the guy in an "impossible position".  Says his was an "informed medical position".  What malarkey.
> 
> You want a job in public safety?  Then you have to act in accordance with the needs of public safety - which includes public health.



I agree.  It will be interesting to see how the case plays out, though.


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The case will probably depend on whether the emergency approval process of the C19 vaccines is considered legally equivalent to the regular vaccine approval process.  That’s the only hole I see in the case.



I've heard that a lot of the reason it moved so quickly was that 1) a lot of research had been done on Covid vaccines prior to the pandemic, so they had a strong base of work to jump off of for Covid 19, and 2) that the emergency process let them perform a whole lot of red tape steps that would normally have to be done sequentially, simultaneously, so they saved a ton of time there as well.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Pretty much. 

Even though no coronavirus vaccine had progressed all the way through the regular process to approval, the vaccine prototypes for SARS and MERS were very far along when the diseases retreated from view.  Those formulas and that science gave researchers advantages starting the mRNA vaccine research for C19.

Plus, there had been a LOT of discussion about how to handle pandemics between the major world governments.  Some of the ideas- like temporary or permanent abatement of relevant international IP laws in regards to vaccine research- had been floated before.  Others about sharing research/production tech, etc. probably got aggressively asserted as being best in the big picture.

(Note: I do NOT know the details of what was actually agreed to.)

So, with the scientists having a bit of a head start, and the politicians figutin out how to grease the skids- or at least, how to get certain barriers out of the way- we’ve never been in a better position to develop vaccines faster.  At least, for the major outbreaksl. Orphan drugs will probably still exist,


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> So, with the scientists having a bit of a head start, and the politicians figutin out how to grease the skids- or at least, how to get certain barriers out of the way- we’ve never been in a better position to develop vaccines faster.  At least, for the major outbreaksl. Orphan drugs will probably still exist,




As a purely practical matter, removing patent protections may "grease the skids" this time1.  However, I think doing so removes the most powerful incentive drug companies have to engage in development.  Next time (and there will be a next time) they will be less inclined to bother with rapid development of time-critical drugs.


1. Whether it actually would speed matters is open for debate - the supply chain for tools and materials may collapse if a bunch of other producers enter the market.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> As a purely practical matter, removing patent protections may "grease the skids" this time1.  However, I think doing so removes the most powerful incentive drug companies have to engage in development.  Next time (and there will be a next time) they will be less inclined to bother with rapid development of time-critical drugs.



I think you would be correct if the drug companies were funding it all themselves.  AstraZeneca got more than a billion dollars in aid from the U.S. government to develop their vaccine.  Other companies received huge amounts as well.  Without having to front the titanic money investment in developing the drugs, they will still reap huge profits and that's all that really matters to them.  If we do the same next time, so will they.


Umbran said:


> 1. Whether it actually would speed matters is open for debate - the supply chain for tools and materials may collapse if a bunch of other producers enter the market.



I don't think they will collapse.  They'll go to their limit, though, and then the smaller producers who can't pay to have their product moved will fail.  The bigger companies will get their product out and the rest won't.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> I think you would be correct if the drug companies were funding it all themselves.  AstraZeneca got more than a billion dollars in aid from the U.S. government to develop their vaccine.  Other companies received huge amounts as well.




Pfizer being a major exception - they didn't take any money for development, only pre-orders for production.

That they took government money does not mean they didn't also heavily invest their own resources - so we shouldn't speak as if this meant it was free for the biotech firms in question.

Government funding isn't new, or specific to this vaccine.  Governments put investment into all sorts of technology development, all the time.  It is a regular part of doing business in technology development.  These funds are handed out _with agreement on who owns the IP attached_.  So, these companies took the money and engaged in work with expectations about the future results, and is part of the balance sheets that drive their choices.

There's a Vaderesque, "I am altering the deal. Pray I do not alter it any further," to this.



Maxperson said:


> I don't think they will collapse.  They'll go to their limit, though, and then the smaller producers who can't pay to have their product moved will fail.  The bigger companies will get their product out and the rest won't.




So, let me be clear what I mean by "collapse".  If seven companies try to draw on supplies for three different components that aren't up to it, you are likely to have the issue that _none_ of the companies get all of what they need for all the components.  Company 1 gets all of component A they need, but B gets poached by company 2, and so on.  This means that all the companies become highly _inefficient_ at production.  High levels of production requires planned, balanced sourcing and consumption of elements.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> Pfizer being a major exception - they didn't take any money for development, only pre-orders for production.
> 
> That they took government money does not mean they didn't also heavily invest their own resources - so we shouldn't speak as if this meant it was free for the biotech firms in question.
> 
> Government funding isn't new, or specific to this vaccine.  Governments put investment into all sorts of technology development, all the time.  It is a regular part of doing business in technology development.  These funds are handed out _with agreement on who owns the IP attached_.  So, these companies took the money and engaged in work with expectations about the future results, and is part of the balance sheets that drive their choices.
> 
> There's a Vaderesque, "I am altering the deal. Pray I do not alter it any further," to this.



Hmm.  I hadn't seen the new yesterday and thought that patent protection removal was something agreed to as part of the money given.  Yeah, I don't agree with the way this is being done.  


Umbran said:


> So, let me be clear what I mean by "collapse".  If seven companies try to draw on supplies for three different components that aren't up to it, you are likely to have the issue that _none_ of the companies get all of what they need for all the components.  Company 1 gets all of component A they need, but B gets poached by company 2, and so on.  This means that all the companies become highly _inefficient_ at production.  High levels of production requires planned, balanced sourcing and consumption of elements.



I didn't understand that you meant pre-production and not post production, but I don't think it matters to my argument.  Companies say 1-3, the largest, will pay more to get all of components A, B and C that they need and companies 4-7 will not be able to get much at all. The big fish will make out well and the smaller fish will suffer.


----------



## Ryujin

This is the second lockdown, at least, for this same shift. They just don't learn. A massive amount of our international mail/parcels go through this sorting facility, during this very overnight shift, so it has a huge impact. "Retirement party." Great.









						Retirement party held at Mississauga Canada Post plant during major Ontariowide COVID-19 case surge  | Globalnews.ca
					

"This is incredibly irresponsible. If they (Canada Post) had a house party, it would be no different -- we'd be over there and ticketing it," Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie said.




					globalnews.ca


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> Hmm.  I hadn't seen the new yesterday and thought that patent protection removal was something agreed to as part of the money given.  Yeah, I don't agree with the way this is being done.
> 
> I didn't understand that you meant pre-production and not post production, but I don't think it matters to my argument.  Companies say 1-3, the largest, will pay more to get all of components A, B and C that they need and companies 4-7 will not be able to get much at all. The big fish will make out well and the smaller fish will suffer.




My point is that no, that's not how materials flow.  They don't pre-organize to go to the people who have more money.

You can see this, for example, with Personal Protective Equipment - when demand for masks, gloves, face shields, and such suddenly rose, it was _NOT_ the case that the hospitals with more money could get what the needed, and the others didn't.  It turned out that pretty much everyone wound up short.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Based on prior discussions on the topic, I believe the IP waiver is intended to be a temporary measure.  It’s designed to decentralize production away from developed nations to poorer ones, in order to let them produce their own stockpiles, and mitigate the problem of “vaccine hoarding” by producer nations.  That gets us out of the pandemic stage more quickly, and with fewer mutations to combat, so the theory goes.

Once we’re past the imminent crisis, the waiver is terminated, and non-authorized production has to end.

Of course, genies don’t neccessarily go back into their bottles that easily...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Addendum:

I’m not a patents guy- copyright was my thing- _but as I recall_, the major IP treaties had provisions under which vital technologies (like pharmaceuticals) could be used without permission/license in extreme cases while bypassing patent laws.  But those clauses take time and money to successfully invoke.  And in a pandemic, both of those are rarer commodities.

So these IP waivers are not without precedent.  Really, they’re just bypassing a lot of procedural steps.

(Again, the caveat, I may be misremembering or the laws may have changed.)


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m not a patents guy- copyright was my thing- _but as I recall_, the major IP treaties had provisions under which vital technologies (like pharmaceuticals) could be used without permission/license in extreme cases while bypassing patent laws.  But those clauses take time and money to successfully invoke.  And in a pandemic, both of those are rarer commodities.




Okay, that's consistent with what I heard bout talks with the WTO.

May be for naught, as the EU wasn't yet behind this measure anyway.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mom dislikes the fit of regular masks and isn’t all that comfy in the N95s either.  To her, the regular masks fit too close to her mouth, etc.

So I picked up The Cool Turtle mask inserts for her to try.  





						Amazon.com: Cool Turtle Mask Enhancer As Seen On TV, Keeps You Cool & Dry All Day, Reduces Friction — Face Mask Inner Support Frame Helps You Breathe Easier — Washable & Fits Men and Women, One Size, Green : Home & Kitchen
					

Buy Cool Turtle Mask Enhancer As Seen On TV, Keeps You Cool & Dry All Day, Reduces Friction — Face Mask Inner Support Frame Helps You Breathe Easier — Washable & Fits Men and Women, One Size, Green on Amazon.com ✓ FREE SHIPPING on qualified orders



					www.amazon.com
				




Verdict: they’re crap.  Their “one size fits all” claim is laughable at best.  At 5’7”, I’m not a particularly large human.  The insert only covered both nose &amp; mouth as long as I didn’t open my mouth.  Say one word, and either it slipped down off my nose or the bottom wound up inside my lower lip.  They’re not necessary, but the little clips that attached to the folds of a paper mask would not stay in place- attach the second one, the first would pop off.


----------



## Ryujin

gerasimus said:


> We once tried to get together on Skype in 2011, but no one liked the connection, no one liked the sound - everything was terrible, you know. In 2015, they also tried to get together, but already in a voice chat in DC. It also turned out to be stupid: no one could follow the dice falls, whether the person was lying, everyone did not trust each other, during the game, everyone argued a lot, and the master can not calm anyone down. It's better to play face-to-face, with jokes, drinks, and the ability to draw something, when each of us can add notes on the map. Of course, we threw photos into Discord, but it wasn't like that. So I was very, very upset to realize that the pandemic had ruined all the role-playing games, and we started to gather a lot less. I found out on dndguide.net, are there special platforms for the game where you can watch the dice fall or set it up in the game, can you create rooms, secret chats, can you set up a map, etc. I always want everything to be natural and to be preserved.



Using a virtual tabletop, like Roll20 or Fantasy Grounds, removes a lot of the distrust aspect from playing. You're rolling virtual dice that are based on your character template, with at the very least the DM being able to see how the numbers were generated. The calculations are built in and all that has to occasionally be done, is situational modifiers. There's no, "I rolled a critical! (WinkWink)" going on.


----------



## Umbran

gerasimus said:


> It also turned out to be stupid: no one could follow the dice falls, whether the person was lying, everyone did not trust each other, during the game, everyone argued a lot, and the master can not calm anyone down.




If you are in such a place of distrust where there's fear of cheating and arguing... the communication platform may not be the root issue.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ryujin said:


> Using a virtual tabletop, like Roll20 or Fantasy Grounds, removes a lot of the distrust aspect from playing. You're rolling virtual dice that are based on your character template, with at the very least the DM being able to see how the numbers were generated. The calculations are built in and all that has to occasionally be done, is situational modifiers. There's no, "I rolled a critical! (WinkWink)" going on.



While I’m no fan of gaming via telepresence- never tried it, TBH- I think those platforms sound pretty reasonable.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> If you are in such a place of distrust where there's fear of cheating and arguing... the communication platform may not be the root issue.





DMing for my 11yo's friends there have been... some... concerns.   So I started having them roll on Roll Dice With Friends     I think the question mark in the group has gotten better with the temptation.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> While I’m no fan of gaming via telepresence- never tried it, TBH- I think those platforms sound pretty reasonable.



Things have come a long way since apps like OpenRPG, in which rolls had to be manually made up, and such. I ran a few sessions (D20 Modern) via that way back when, using a home made server with TeamSpeak, as the host. From my end it was a bit of a nightmare doing prep. Manual creation and scaling of maps, making text docs to copy/paste attack and skill rolls from for NPCs, and the like.

I've been a player in a Roll20 D&D 5e campaign (Curse of Strahd) and a Fantasy Grounds Pathfinder 1e campaign (Way of the Wicked). The materials for both were available in the applications, so not much extra work was needed. There's even a deal between Smiteworks (the creator of Fantasy Grounds) and Drive ThruRPG that if you buy the physical product and it's available in FG, you get something like 50% off the electronic version for use in that. I believe the opposite is also true.

I haven't used either as a DM yet but, given how much I enjoyed using FG, I went in on their Kickstarter for the Unity Engine based version, with an "Ultimate" license (allows hosting of other non licensees at no charge, ability to save data, etc.). Might do the same sort of thing with Roll20, if I'm ever in a position to be running again. 

Like I said, the tools are far better now. Also, specifically because of Covid-19, the tools for online group chat are much more accessible now. More people have cameras/mics/headsets. You can play like you're practically in the same room, barring internet outages.


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> DMing for my 11yo's friends there have been... some... concerns.   So I started having them roll on Roll Dice With Friends     I think the question mark in the group has gotten better with the temptation.




Sure.  I think my point still stands that the platform isn't the thing that causes distrust.  

Whether there's good reasons to play in that state is a separate, case-by-case question.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A little more on the IP waivers.








						Moderna's CEO said he 'didn't lose a minute of sleep' over the US support for waiving patents for COVID-19 vaccines
					

Pharmaceutical companies usually guard their intellectual property closely. But Stéphane Bancel said a waiver wouldn't affect the company financially.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> A little more on the IP waivers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Moderna's CEO said he 'didn't lose a minute of sleep' over the US support for waiving patents for COVID-19 vaccines
> 
> 
> Pharmaceutical companies usually guard their intellectual property closely. But Stéphane Bancel said a waiver wouldn't affect the company financially.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




Yeah, the limitations on making the stuff are not unexpected.  I can see why Moderna would be unconcerned.


----------



## Umbran

So, new guidance from the CDC, that folks who are vaccinated can for the most part go about their business unmasked, indoors and outdoors, with a small number of caveats.

And it looks like this guidance has given many people a yawning pit of fear in their guts.  We think, "But... as a practical manner that means people who are not vaccinated can lie about it, and go unmasked!  They'll spread the disease!  We're hosed!"

Any time news gives you that yawning pit of fear, is the moment you should stop, breathe, and think.

Consider: Think about the kind of yob who would lie so they could go without a mask.  This person... is a shmuck.  These aren't people who have dutifully and effectively followed mask protocols so far, are they?  No.  They are people who have already been ignoring masking every chance they can get.  They are the ones _already spreading the disease_, aren't they?

That would mean that this guidance really doesn't add appreciable risk.  The number of folks who won't get vaccinated, but who do and will dutifully follow masking guidance is probably very small, and those would be the only added new risk.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Still gonna mask up for a while.  Leading by example; keeping my paranoid Mom at ease.  Etc.


----------



## JEB

Umbran said:


> So, new guidance from the CDC, that folks who are vaccinated can for the most part go about their business unmasked, indoors and outdoors, with a small number of caveats.
> 
> And it looks like this guidance has given many people a yawning pit of fear in their guts.  We think, "But... as a practical manner that means people who are not vaccinated can lie about it, and go unmasked!  They'll spread the disease!  We're hosed!"
> 
> Any time news gives you that yawning pit of fear, is the moment you should stop, breathe, and think.
> 
> Consider: Think about the kind of yob who would lie so they could go without a mask.  This person... is a shmuck.  These aren't people who have dutifully and effectively followed mask protocols so far, are they?  No.  They are people who have already been ignoring masking every chance they can get.  They are the ones _already spreading the disease_, aren't they?
> 
> That would mean that this guidance really doesn't add appreciable risk.  The number of folks who won't get vaccinated, but who do and will dutifully follow masking guidance is probably very small, and those would be the only added new risk.



The problem is that before, if you were wearing a mask, and the infectious yob was also required to wear a mask, it was incredibly unlikely you would get it from them after an encounter. But now, you might still be wearing a mask, but the infectious yob won't be, so your protection is lessened just that little bit. And if you choose to listen to CDC's guidance and go out without a mask yourself, and encounter the equally maskless yob, you might find out you're one of the unlucky folks whose vaccination wasn't good enough.

Plus, anything that encourages the continued spread of the disease ups the chances of a new strain being bred that can get around the current vaccine.

Not really seeing the upside of this CDC guidance. We should all be wearing masks until community spread is no longer a danger.


----------



## Umbran

JEB said:


> The problem is that before, if you were wearing a mask, and the infectious yob was also required to wear a mask, it was incredibly unlikely you would get it from them after an encounter.




That hasn't changed.  If fully vaccinated, you are incredibly unlikely to get it from them after the encounter. If you do get it, it is even more unlikely that you'll end up in the hospital. And it is unlikely that you'll spread it to anyone else.  Doubly so if they are also vaccinated.

Basically, what this is telling us is that, except in the _most_ crowded enclosed placed (like public transit), the protection of vaccine turns out to make the mask superfluous.



JEB said:


> Plus, anything that encourages the continued spread of the disease ups the chances of a new strain being bred that can get around the current vaccine.




And... you figure somehow the CDC has suddenly _forgotten_ how disease works?  You figure they didn't account for this before issuing guidance?



JEB said:


> Not really seeing the upside of this CDC guidance. We should all be wearing masks until community spread is no longer a danger.




So, here's the thing the CDC can do, that us duffers at home cannot - define what "no longer a danger" actually is, and who is actually subject to that risk, and who isn't.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Still gonna mask up for a while.  Leading by example; keeping my paranoid Mom at ease.  Etc.




Yep.  Mask or no, I'm not going to be eating indoors in a restaurant any time soon.  Or going to a movie theater, or getting on public transportation.  Or even going to a crowded outdoor entertainment.  I'm still going to wear a mask when I go to the grocery or other store, and I'll be keeping those trips to a minimum.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I* _have_ eaten at restaurants, and but for one post-vaccination occasion, all of the restaurants seemed to be taking things seriously.

For instance, none of them allowed adjacent seating.  Many had even removed tables to increase spacing.  And- while ultimately, it may have been “pandemic theatre”- cleaning was vigorous.

In addition, the Indian buffet required the use of AND supplied masks & gloves. 

Plus, I have been going right at opening for a lot of my visits.  Risks are lower when you’re one of the only 4-5 customers in the place.



* all but a couple excursions were solo.


----------



## Cadence

From a greedy standpoint I know I'd personally be a lot happier about everything if my child were one year older or if the vaccine was approved down to 11 instead of 12...

Ate at a restaurant in person (outside) two weeks ago for the first time in over a year.  I thought everyone in the long-time lunch group had had both doses kick in, but one person had only had one so far.  

Funeral this week, so was inside two funeral homes and some restaurants eating while on the road, and stayed in two different hotels.  I think most folks had their two doses (all of the older ones did anyway).   It was interesting to see how different states and hotels had different takes on masking, and that how the customers and staff acted had little to know connection to what the signs on the doors said.  I can't imagine what the planning would have been like f the death (near 100 yo and about as peaceful as it can be) had been before vaccination had been wide open for almost two months.


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> That hasn't changed.  If fully vaccinated, you are incredibly unlikely to get it from them after the encounter. If you do get it, it is even more unlikely that you'll end up in the hospital. *And it is unlikely that you'll spread it to anyone else. * Doubly so if they are also vaccinated.




We're still waiting on the science about that.  In the meantime, I don't have to worry about getting sick from your hypothetical shmuck.  But I do still need to be concerned about passing it from that schmuck to my unvaccinated children, my friend on chemotherapy, and anyone else who is medically prevented from taking the vaccine.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> We're still waiting on the science about that.




Insofar as published, peer reviewed studies, yes, we are still waiting.  However, the CDC can, will, and does work off preliminary data as well.

The basic question at hand is this: in creation of the vaccines, the basic test of effectiveness was "prevent you from becoming ill", meaning, showing symptoms.  It left open the question of whether a vaccinated person could be infected, but not be ill, and thus possibly spread the virus.

In early April, the CDC published a preliminary report, tracking health care workers, first responders, and other front line personnel. 

_"Among unvaccinated participants, 1.38 SARS-CoV-2 infections were confirmed by reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) per 1,000 person-days. In contrast, among fully immunized (≥14 days after second dose) persons, 0.04 infections per 1,000 person-days were reported, and among partially immunized (≥14 days after first dose and before second dose) persons, 0.19 infections per 1,000 person-days were reported. Estimated mRNA vaccine effectiveness for prevention of infection, adjusted for study site, was 90% for full immunization and 80% for partial immunization. These findings indicate that authorized mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are effective for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection, regardless of symptom status, among working-age adults in real-world conditions."_

The results were simple - the vaccines are not just 90%+ effective at keeping you from getting ill, they are 90%+ effective at keeping you from getting infected at all.  And if you are not infected at all, you cannot spread the virus.

It is now a month later, and as far as I can find, subsequent data has only supported this result.  The data is still preliminary, because the rate of infection is terribly low, and in very technical statistics, that leads to a broad confidence interval around that 90%.

And, now here's a place where human understanding of risk typically fails us.  Once you have a method that is highly effective as preventing infection/transmission, layering on more methods only adds marginal benefit. 

If you have two, independent methods of prevention, that are each 50% effective, if you use them both, the result is about 75% effective, which seems like a good deal.

If you have two independent methods of prevention, one is 90% effective, and the other is 50% effective, the result is about 95% effective.

Now, let us apply what that effectiveness really means.  A 90% effective vaccine does not mean it leaves you with a 10% chance of getting covid.  It means your chance of getting covid is 90% less than if you were not vaccinated.

Broadly speaking, the chance of catching covid is on the order of 1% per exposure.  A 90% effective prevention reduces that to 0.1% chance.  A 95% effective prevention reduces that to 0.05% chance per exposure.

So, basically, adding the mask only drops the chance of transmission by _five hundredths of a percent_.

That's a small change in probability, down in the level of experimental error where it is apt to be wiped out by other factors, such as to be meaningless.

That is not to say you should not wear a mask.  I support anyone who wants to wear a mask.   I will be happy if my state retains its "masks must be worn indoors in public places" mandate.  I'm going to continue avoiding certain venues, and wearing masks myself.


----------



## Deset Gled

Umbran said:


> Insofar as published, peer reviewed studies, yes, we are still waiting.




Just so you are aware, your recomendations are the opposite of what my children's health care professional says on the matter:





__





						Questions and Answers about COVID-19 Vaccines | Children's Hospital of Philadelphia
					

Have questions about COVID-19 and the vaccines? Check out a compilation of dozens of common questions we have received.




					www.chop.edu
				




"Does a vaccinated person present a risk to an unvaccinated family member in the same house?

Vaccinated people do not shed virus as a result of vaccination. Neither the mRNA nor the adenovirus vaccines are composed of live viruses, so there is no infectious virus to spread from a vaccinated person to someone else.

But we do not yet know if a vaccinated person who encounters the virus can still experience what is referred to as “asymptomatic infection.” An asymptomatic infection occurs when a person is exposed to the virus in the community and the virus can still replicate in their body, but they don’t have symptoms because their immune system stifles the infection as a result of vaccination. In this scenario, the person could potentially spread the virus without even knowing they are infected. While it is not anticipated that vaccinated individuals will be likely to spread the virus even if they experience asymptomatic infection, this has not yet been shown to be the case. Therefore, we need to practice caution until we know for certain.

Given that families and friends will not all be vaccinated yet, vaccinated individuals should continue to follow public health guidance when they are out in the community to decrease the chance of introducing the virus in the home through asymptomatic infection."

I understand that your conclusions are hopeful.  It is highly likely that you will be proven correct some time next month, next week, or even tomorrow.  But when I have to choose between preliminary data from some guy on the internet and the recomendations of my kid's doctor, I listen to the doctor.


----------



## CapnZapp

Umbran said:


> So, new guidance from the CDC, that folks who are vaccinated can for the most part go about their business unmasked, indoors and outdoors, with a small number of caveats.
> 
> And it looks like this guidance has given many people a yawning pit of fear in their guts. We think, "But... as a practical manner that means people who are not vaccinated can lie about it, and go unmasked! They'll spread the disease! We're hosed!"
> 
> Any time news gives you that yawning pit of fear, is the moment you should stop, breathe, and think.
> 
> Consider: Think about the kind of yob who would lie so they could go without a mask. This person... is a shmuck. These aren't people who have dutifully and effectively followed mask protocols so far, are they? No. They are people who have already been ignoring masking every chance they can get. They are the ones _already spreading the disease_, aren't they?
> 
> That would mean that this guidance really doesn't add appreciable risk. The number of folks who won't get vaccinated, but who do and will dutifully follow masking guidance is probably very small, and those would be the only added new risk.



If you go out into society you _will_ be exposed.

If you're vaccinated you're relying on the vaccine to protect you.

If you're unvaccinated you really should never go inside any building except your own home. If you need to meet people, do it outdoors (and not in crowds). Don't shop, period. 

My point is that nothing changes to any appreciable degree. The presence of "fake" unmasked people won't change this calculus.

If you're vaccinated you will still in the end rely on the vaccine to protect you, and if you're not you're still gambling your life.


----------



## CapnZapp

JEB said:


> The problem is that before, if you were wearing a mask, and the infectious yob was also required to wear a mask, it was incredibly unlikely you would get it from them after an encounter. But now, you might still be wearing a mask, but the infectious yob won't be, so your protection is lessened just that little bit. And if you choose to listen to CDC's guidance and go out without a mask yourself, and encounter the equally maskless yob, you might find out you're one of the unlucky folks whose vaccination wasn't good enough.
> 
> Plus, anything that encourages the continued spread of the disease ups the chances of a new strain being bred that can get around the current vaccine.
> 
> Not really seeing the upside of this CDC guidance. We should all be wearing masks until community spread is no longer a danger.



Masks primary job is reducing the number of people YOU infect. Not help you avoid infection.

Since it's unreasonable to expect Average Joe to keep isolating even after getting vaccinated, the only reasonable conclusion that thosr unlucky few the vaccine can't help will probably get the disease.

In a country where the clear majority gets immunized you could hope the disease levels would sink to insignificant levels, but it is fairly clear the US isn't going to be one of those countries.

I guess I'm saying there's no point in maintaining your caution since in the end you either trust the vaccine to keep you safe or endure a semi-permanent isolation.

Not that I'm telling you how to react. Just saying that for most people, there likely is no practical alternative to re-entering society once vaccinated.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> I understand that your conclusions are hopeful.  It is highly likely that you will be proven correct some time next month, next week, or even tomorrow.  But when I have to choose between preliminary data from some guy on the internet and the recomendations of my kid's doctor, I listen to the doctor.




Dude.  My "some guy on the internet" is _*the Center for Disease Control*_.

I am not recommending any particular action.  I am explaining the guidance from the CDC, and why they give it, so that folks can make informed choices.


----------



## Umbran

And, here's an additional study from the CDC, which they just posted on the 14th.  This seems to have been the basis for the new mask recommendations.

Relevant quote:
_"Interim analyses indicated that the VE of a single dose (measured 14 days after the first dose through 6 days after the second dose) was 82% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 74%–87%), adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, and underlying medical conditions. The adjusted VE of 2 doses (measured ≥7 days after the second dose) was 94% (95% CI = 87%–97%)."_

@Deset Gled - This information became available on the 14th.  We would not expect individual health care providers and professionals to have even started reconsidering their recommendations yet.  But then, we should hope and expect the CDC to be ahead of the folks doing the day-to-day care.  It is kind of their job to be.

An overall review of this is available from CNN: What made CDC decide to say fully vaccinated people don't need masks?


----------



## Hussar

Well, it will likely be September before I get my poke.  Sigh.  One of my students is a lung surgeon at the local hospital.  The hospital where they accept Covid patients.  The north of 60 year old doctor student just got his first shot THIS WEEK.  

Very, very much not happy with Japan right now.


----------



## cmad1977

Hussar said:


> Well, it will likely be September before I get my poke. Sigh. One of my students is a lung surgeon at the local hospital. The hospital where they accept Covid patients. The north of 60 year old doctor student just got his first shot THIS WEEK.
> 
> Very, very much not happy with Japan right now.




Oof. Fly out to Los Angeles twice and you’ll be good to go.


----------



## MarkB

I got my second jab on Thursday morning. Pfizer, no appreciable side effects.


----------



## Mistwell

From New York Times. "Few vaccinated people become infected with the virus, and transmission seems rarer still; and the vaccines appear to be effective against all known variants of the coronavirus...Other recent studies confirm that people who are infected after vaccination carry too little virus to infect others, said Florian Krammer, a virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai."


----------



## Hussar

And the Olympics are full speed ahead. It’s only going to get a lot worse here.


----------



## Bedrockgames

Mistwell said:


> From New York Times. "Few vaccinated people become infected with the virus, and transmission seems rarer still; and the vaccines appear to be effective against all known variants of the coronavirus...Other recent studies confirm that people who are infected after vaccination carry too little virus to infect others, said Florian Krammer, a virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai."




People will lie about whether they are vaccinated. The recommendation effectively means everyone can go places without a mask


----------



## Mistwell

Bedrockgames said:


> People will lie about whether they are vaccinated. The recommendation effectively means everyone can go places without a mask



This still is not an argument for a person who is vaccinated to wear a mask because they might infect others. That's what Desert Gled is arguing because his pediatrician told him that. That information WAS the best we knew up until recently. However the new evidence coming out answers that question. No, you're not risk of transmission if you're vaccinated. Even if you get an asymptomatic dose of it yourself as a vaccinated person you won't then transmit it to others. 

It also means that if your entire D&D group is vaccinated, or even if everyone except one person is vaccinated, then you can get together without masks.


----------



## Umbran

Bedrockgames said:


> People will lie about whether they are vaccinated. The recommendation effectively means everyone can go places without a mask




Probably.  And the CDC undoubtedly knows that.  They will have crunched the numbers before giving the guidance.  Crunching such numbers is, in fact, part of their job.

Conscientious people will continue to wear masks until they get vaccinated.

Unconscientious people... were already going unmasked in large numbers.  Which probably makes the point moot.


----------



## Mistwell

From NPR
“"The vast majority of the data that's coming out — and what we're seeing anecdotally on the ground, taking care of patients — is that individuals who get COVID after they've been vaccinated, as long as they're not immunocompromised, they get really mild disease and they have such low viral loads that they're not passing it on to their family members," Landon says.”


----------



## JEB

Umbran said:


> Unconscientious people... were already going unmasked in large numbers. Which probably makes the point moot.



Before, the guidance was that folks should generally wear masks, vaccinated or not, unless you're around other vaccinated folks (or at your own risk). This also gave backing to local authorities, businesses, etc. to have masks required. So folks who didn't wear masks in public stood out.

Now, a lot more folks will be maskless in public, so it'll be basically impossible to tell the difference between "unmasked because vaccinated" and "unvaccinated and never wanted to mask in the first place". And businesses etc. will be under pressure to drop restrictions (though odds are many will keep them for staff).


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> Probably.  And the CDC undoubtedly knows that.  They will have crunched the numbers before giving the guidance.  Crunching such numbers is, in fact, part of their job.
> 
> Conscientious people will continue to wear masks until they get vaccinated.
> 
> Unconscientious people... were already going unmasked in large numbers.  Which probably makes the point moot.



Already here in California Trader Joes which was requiring everyone to be masked, including those who otherwise would not wear them, has said that they will not require masks for anyone vaccinated, but won't check to make sure that anyone not wearing a mask has proof of vaccination.  

I think in the midwest what you say is more accurate.  Here the anti-vaxxers who all wore masks when they went inside, will now take them off.


----------



## Maxperson

Mistwell said:


> “"The vast majority of the data that's coming out — and what we're seeing anecdotally on the ground, taking care of patients — is that individuals who get COVID after they've been vaccinated, as long as they're not immunocompromised, they get really mild disease and they have such low viral loads that they're not passing it on to their family members," Landon says.”



How immunocompromised? Is diabetes enough?


----------



## Umbran

JEB said:


> Now, a lot more folks will be maskless in public, so it'll be basically impossible to tell the difference between "unmasked because vaccinated" and "unvaccinated and never wanted to mask in the first place". And businesses etc. will be under pressure to drop restrictions (though odds are many will keep them for staff).




I understand that.

The CDC understands that.

How many times does this need to be repeated?  None of this is novel.  You have not uncovered some loophole that the best minds in epidemiology somehow failed to consider.

A thing _we_ really ought to consider - this thread has, for a year now, been loaded with gripes about people _ignoring the science_.  But now, when what the science says doesn't fit our non-expert opinions, we reject it?  Here we are, quoting the CDC reports, the New York Times and other reputable news sources, but... nope.  Not accepted.  We construct justifications why the people who know and do the science every day... are wrong.  

We, as a world, have been working through a year of anxiety and pressure.  We had expectations.  Things that defy our expectations cause more anxiety.  And that anxiety... results in just the patterns I noted above.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Detecting at least *some* of the anti-maskers will be easy enough- wear a mask in their presence, and theyll be struggling NOT to confront you.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The NY Yankees had a cluster of players & personnel who seem to have had breakthrough C19 cases, but from what I’ve seen on the story, there’s nobody suggesting any of the passed it along to anyone else, including each other.  IOW, despite the cluster, its coincidental.

In addition, all of the cases seem to be mild or asymptomatic.









						New York Yankees say 8 vaccinated members tested positive for Covid-19. Here's how that could happen | CNN
					

The single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine was 72% effective against Covid-19 among US trial participants and 85% effective against severe Covid-19. But even if you get Covid-19 after being vaccinated, your symptoms will likely be far less severe.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> I understand that.
> 
> The CDC understands that.
> 
> How many times does this need to be repeated?  None of this is novel.  You have not uncovered some loophole that the best minds in epidemiology somehow failed to consider.
> 
> A thing _we_ really ought to consider - this thread has, for a year now, been loaded with gripes about people _ignoring the science_.  But now, when what the science says doesn't fit our non-expert opinions, we reject it?  Here we are, quoting the CDC reports, the New York Times and other reputable news sources, but... nope.  Not accepted.  We construct justifications why the people who know and do the science every day... are wrong.
> 
> We, as a world, have been working through a year of anxiety and pressure.  We had expectations.  Things that defy our expectations cause more anxiety.  And that anxiety... results in just the patterns I noted above.




 CDC and some if the people in it have said some fairly stupid things along with Fauci. 

For me it has no relevance not American and our Director General if Health and Ministry of Health seems a bit more clued up. 

 My American friends have essentially said you're not going to be able to tell whose vaccinated or not and now the shops aren't going to bother enforcing mask wearing in a country with fairly minimal civic duty towards your fellow humans. 

 Even if they required the vaccination cards you can buy them in eBay.


----------



## JEB

Umbran said:


> A thing _we_ really ought to consider - this thread has, for a year now, been loaded with gripes about people _ignoring the science_. But now, when what the science says doesn't fit our non-expert opinions, we reject it? Here we are, quoting the CDC reports, the New York Times and other reputable news sources, but... nope. Not accepted. We construct justifications why the people who know and do the science every day... are wrong.



While I take your point, I'd also point out that early in the pandemic, the CDC and other health authorities told us not to wear face masks... but later changed their mind and endorsed them. What if they change their mind again, too late to stop other negative consequences of this policy?

There's also a world of difference between questioning health advice that's inconvenient for individuals but protective of the populace at large, and questioning health advice that's convenient for individuals but increases risk to the populace at large.

I understand the deep desire for folks to get back to a semblance of normalcy... but even if the science doesn't strictly require it, I think it would have been wiser to continue recommending masking, until we reached peak immunization numbers. It's not a big thing to ask of people, and it could significantly increase our odds of keeping Covid under control. But it's too late now...


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The NY Yankees had a cluster of players & personnel who seem to have had breakthrough C19 cases, but from what I’ve seen on the story, there’s nobody suggesting any of the passed it along to anyone else, including each other.  IOW, despite the cluster, its coincidental.




And, even if they had passed it among themselves, their situation as an athletic team - sharing spaces of intense physical workouts for long periods, over weeks, for example - make them a rather particular case that would not speak to the day-to-day action of most folks.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> And, even if they had passed it among themselves, their situation as an athletic team - sharing spaces of intense physical workouts for long periods, over weeks, for example - make them a rather particular cases that would not speak to the day-to-day action of most folks.



They were also all using Johnson and Johnson, and it's only 65% effective at keeping people from getting the virus.


----------



## KainGuru

In terms of Covid and gaming - what a total BS year. My experience has, being a font line worker in the UK, going into lockdown at work March 2020, having to shield when at home so as not to bring the virus into work or vice versa, last saw  2 of my gaming group 3 months ago for the first time since March 2020 - at the from the bottom of their steps because they their mother lives with them and she's high risk. Another member of our gaming group unexpectedly died (not covid) which meant, due to limited funeral attendance numbers, seeing one other member of our group since March 2020. Due to the front line demands of covid at work not taking any annual leave for over 12 months (nowhere to go even if I did) and being too stressed when not at work to arrange any online substitute gaming - and the lack of gaming, as my usual stress reliever, making everything a s**t cake. BUT I did finish my 28mm scale SeaGhost, prep a one Judge Dredd/Alien mash up One Shot for when 'we' can all meet again and printed a s**t ton of scenery for my, still unplayed because it was released during lockdown, copy of the Judge Dredd Miniatures Game.

So, in summation, a bad year for gaming for many. 

.... and now the UK is being prepped for more bad news as the India variant starts to become  problematic .... smart money (as an inside word from the Health Dept epidemiologists) says we are going to get another surge of infections in about 2 weeks for many reasons too long to list.

TL;DR: blurgh, just needed to vent somewhere


----------



## Maxperson

I might have bought an airplane ticket for this had I known about it earlier and they said yes of course.  









						Romanians Can Receive COVID-19 Vaccines at 'Dracula's Castle'
					

The legendary location is now home to a no-appointment-needed vaccination center




					time.com


----------



## DollarD

Well, I got my first jab on Friday - AstraZeneca via the COVAX programme here in Africa. 

Felt a bit under the weather on Saturday, but fine afterwards. About 50% (3) of our gaming group has gotten the first dose already.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yip yip yip yip yip yip yip yip
Sha na na na, sha na na na na
Sha na na na, sha na na na na
Sha na na na, sha na na na na
Sha na na na, sha na na na na
Yip yip yip yip yip yip yip yip
Mum mum mum mum mum mum
Get a jab, sha na na na, sha na na na na


----------



## Hussar

KainGuru said:


> In terms of Covid and gaming - what a total BS year. My experience has, being a font line worker in the UK, going into lockdown at work March 2020, having to shield when at home so as not to bring the virus into work or vice versa, last saw  2 of my gaming group 3 months ago for the first time since March 2020 - at the from the bottom of their steps because they their mother lives with them and she's high risk. Another member of our gaming group unexpectedly died (not covid) which meant, due to limited funeral attendance numbers, seeing one other member of our group since March 2020. Due to the front line demands of covid at work not taking any annual leave for over 12 months (nowhere to go even if I did) and being too stressed when not at work to arrange any online substitute gaming - and the lack of gaming, as my usual stress reliever, making everything a s**t cake. BUT I did finish my 28mm scale SeaGhost, prep a one Judge Dredd/Alien mash up One Shot for when 'we' can all meet again and printed a s**t ton of scenery for my, still unplayed because it was released during lockdown, copy of the Judge Dredd Miniatures Game.
> 
> So, in summation, a bad year for gaming for many.
> 
> .... and now the UK is being prepped for more bad news as the India variant starts to become  problematic .... smart money (as an inside word from the Health Dept epidemiologists) says we are going to get another surge of infections in about 2 weeks for many reasons too long to list.
> 
> TL;DR: blurgh, just needed to vent somewhere



Honestly, and I'm sure you've heard this before, but, online gaming is a pretty good way to go.  There are so many options to choose from.  Whether the big boys like Roll20 or Fantasy Grounds or things like Virtual Tabletop and Astra something or other.  There's just a whole shopping load of virtual tabletops out there now that are really quite good.

Talk about a change from a few years ago where it was basically three choices - Maptools, Roll20 and Fantasy Grounds.


----------



## KainGuru

Hussar said:


> Honestly, and I'm sure you've heard this before, but, online gaming is a pretty good way to go.  There are so many options to choose from.  Whether the big boys like Roll20 or Fantasy Grounds or things like Virtual Tabletop and Astra something or other.  There's just a whole shopping load of virtual tabletops out there now that are really quite good.
> 
> Talk about a change from a few years ago where it was basically three choices - Maptools, Roll20 and Fantasy Grounds.



I'm okie with roll20, I've been to few virtual cons in the past. It's that the other players have never used it and I can't go round to their's to set it up for them


----------



## GreyLord

JEB said:


> While I take your point, I'd also point out that early in the pandemic, the CDC and other health authorities told us not to wear face masks... but later changed their mind and endorsed them. What if they change their mind again, too late to stop other negative consequences of this policy?
> 
> There's also a world of difference between questioning health advice that's inconvenient for individuals but protective of the populace at large, and questioning health advice that's convenient for individuals but increases risk to the populace at large.
> 
> I understand the deep desire for folks to get back to a semblance of normalcy... but even if the science doesn't strictly require it, I think it would have been wiser to continue recommending masking, until we reached peak immunization numbers. It's not a big thing to ask of people, and it could significantly increase our odds of keeping Covid under control. But it's too late now...



This is my worry...right here.

I am wondering if this is what they really want, or if they are using it as a bone to try to tempt the dogs that refuse to get vaccinated as a lure to get them to vaccinate.

Basically saying...if you get vaccinated you don't have to worry about being pressured to wear a mask anymore...it's a benefit that you can have...etc...etc...etc.

So...while I am hopeful, I think I'll give it a few weeks to see if there are any changes, and if it stays the same, then go unmask completely.


----------



## Janx

y'know, I enjoyed not getting a cold or flu or pretty much anything last year.  And my masks are awesome.  So given how unwashed most of the unwashed masses are, I'm prolly gonna stick with it, because Covid isn't the only crud on the shopping cart handle.


----------



## Umbran

Massachusetts plans on rolling back most of its covid restrictions at the end of May, and is expecting to end the State of Emergency in the middle of June.









						Mass. To Ease Mask Mandate, Lift All Other COVID Restrictions May 29; End State Of Emergency June 15
					

Baker declared a state of emergency on March 10, 2020 to deal with the coronavirus that was just beginning to surge across the planet and his administration's restrictions.




					www.wbur.org


----------



## Hussar

Janx said:


> y'know, I enjoyed not getting a cold or flu or pretty much anything last year.  And my masks are awesome.  So given how unwashed most of the unwashed masses are, I'm prolly gonna stick with it, because Covid isn't the only crud on the shopping cart handle.



Funnily enough, this is the reason that most people seem to point to for why Japan isn't getting buried under a mountain of cases.  It's so deeply ingrained in people that when you have so much as a sniffle, you wear a mask to protect other people that getting nearly universal masking in Japan was actually pretty easy.

And, honestly, it worked to a fair degree.  We've never had lockdown.  Even though they're talking extending emergency measures here, all that means is public buildings are closed.  The schools are open - my daughters haven't missed a single day of school this year.  Heck, even before Covid, they would close the school during flu season if the number of cases got high enough.  That didn't happen this year.  Which, as someone who teaches children, not getting sick repeatedly was actually kinda nice.


----------



## Zardnaar

Good news sort of on the microscale. 


 First tourists in Rarotonga in 14 months. 297 including a medical team from NZ to help with vaccinations. Travel bubble extended from Aussie/NZ/ Rarotonga. 

 I think some of the small pacific islands dodged Covid altogether last I heard around 8 of them. 

  Reads like a Survivor TV show location guide. They don't really have the facilities to deal with Covid and some places like French Polynesia, Guam and Hawaii got hit hard.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Reads like a Survivor TV show location guide. They don't really have the facilities to deal with Covid and some places like French Polynesia, Guam and Hawaii got hit hard.




Hawaii got hit hard?

The US, as a whole, has had about 33 million cases, 587,000 deaths in a population of about 328 million people.  About 10% of the population has had covid, and about 0.2% of the poopulation has died.

Hawaii has had 34,247 cases, in a population of about 1.4 million people.  About 2% of their population has had covid.  And they've had all of 489 deaths - or 0.03%.  Their case and death rates are much lower than what we've seen elsewhere.  

So, statistically with the disease, Hawaii has done well compared to the rest of the country.  The economic impact, however, may be more notable.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Hawaii got hit hard?
> 
> The US, as a whole, has had about 33 million cases, 587,000 deaths in a population of about 328 million people.  About 10% of the population has had covid, and about 0.2% of the poopulation has died.
> 
> Hawaii has had 34,247 cases, in a population of about 1.4 million people.  About 2% of their population has had covid.  And they've had all of 489 deaths - or 0.03%.  Their case and death rates are much lower than what we've seen elsewhere.
> 
> So, statistically with the disease, Hawaii has done well compared to the rest of the country.  The economic impact, however, may be more notable.



I suspect the comment was in regards to their tourist industry- a major driving economic factor for all of those places.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I suspect the comment was in regards to their tourist industry- a major driving economic factor for all of those places.




With "facilities to deal with covid" in the same sentence, it isn't clear.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

True.


----------



## Zardnaar

Relative to other Pacific island areas proportionally Hawaii was hit hard relative to the Covid free nation that never got it or NZ that eliminated it. The Covid free ones closed the borders. 

 They're all reliant on tourism (Samoa, Palau Hawaii, French Polynesia). 

 The smaller nations don't really have the facilities to deal with Covid, NZ/Hawaii.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Relative to other Pacific island areas proportionally Hawaii was hit hard relative to the Covid free nation that never got it or NZ that eliminated it.




That just means you don't really know what "hard" is in the medical sense.  The US, on average, had _five to ten times_ more deaths per capita than Hawaii.  Hawaii, to my understanding, didn't have their hospitals overwhelmed.  Only 492 people died.  They didn't need to bring in refrigerated trucks to act as temporary storage for the dead.  And right now, India's doing even worse.  

Heck, my _county_ which has a population of 1.6 million (just a bit more than the state of Hawaii, had 7 times more deaths than Hawaii.

So, medically, no Hawaii didn't get hit hard, thank goodness.  To suggest they did is disrespect to those who are having it far, far worse.

Economically, yeah, this was surely a blow to the state.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> That just means you don't really know what "hard" is in the medical sense.  The US, on average, had _five to ten times_ more deaths per capita than Hawaii.  Hawaii, to my understanding, didn't have their hospitals overwhelmed.  Only 492 people died.  They didn't need to bring in refrigerated trucks to act as temporary storage for the dead.  And right now, India's doing even worse.
> 
> Heck, my _county_ which has a population of 1.6 million (just a bit more than the state of Hawaii, had 7 times more deaths than Hawaii.
> 
> So, medically, no Hawaii didn't get hit hard, thank goodness.  To suggest they did is disrespect to those who are having it far, far worse.
> 
> Economically, yeah, this was surely a blow to the state.




 It's relative though. Small places like Guam have had more cases than my country. 

 Basically can compare case numbers in the various pacific islands with other Pacific islands. 

Relative to French Polynesia/Hawaii/Guam the other places had 0 deaths, 0 cases in some instances. 

 494 is over double what an earthquake here killed (pop 5 million vs 2.7) and around half of what Australia lost (population 25 million). That Earthquake proportionaly killed more people than 9/11. 

 It might not be much compared to mainland USA but it's not close to normal.


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> Hawaii got hit hard?
> 
> The US, as a whole, has had about 33 million cases, 587,000 deaths in a population of about 328 million people.  About 10% of the population has had covid, and about 0.2% of the poopulation has died.
> 
> Hawaii has had 34,247 cases, in a population of about 1.4 million people.  About 2% of their population has had covid.  And they've had all of 489 deaths - or 0.03%.  Their case and death rates are much lower than what we've seen elsewhere.
> 
> So, statistically with the disease, Hawaii has done well compared to the rest of the country.  The economic impact, however, may be more notable.



To be fair, being hit less hard than the mainland of the United States isn't exactly anything to brag about.  LOTS of places were less effected than the US.  "Hit less hard than the US" is a very low bar.  

It's annoying too.  So many of my friends and family back in Canada are looking at how the US is now starting to open up and are demanding that we do the same, even though we haven't had the vaccination rates that the US has had, are still having very high infection rates in some areas and STILL have people refusing to take proper precautions.  It's really a recipe for disaster.

I think if I were Canada, I'd wait a few weeks after the US starts relaxing restrictions to see if they were right or not before I'd start relaxing north of the border.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

People out there are reviving the false claim that HIPPA prevents anyone from asking about your medical history, including vaccination status.  This was false then, and is still so today.  They can’t FORCE you to reveal that information, but they can exclude you from the premises if you do not.









						Fact check: Businesses can legally ask if patrons have been vaccinated. HIPAA does not apply.
					

A false claim contends it is illegal under HIPAA to ask about vaccination status. Legal experts agree HIPAA does not apply. Asking is legal.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

And in other cheery news...









						New Coronavirus Detected In Patients At Malaysian Hospital; The Source May Be Dogs
					

A previously unknown novel coronavirus capable of infecting people has been discovered in Borneo, says a team of researchers from Duke University.




					www.npr.org
				




According to this article, a canine coronavirus is currentl being found in a certain percentage of pneumonia patients the doctors examined.  They cannot say at this time of the virus is actually causing the pneumonia- which would make it the 8th coronavirus to affect humans- or if it’s presence is coincidental.  They also point out that they do not know how the patients carrying this virus got infected, but believe they have NOT gotten it from other humans.  IOW, they suspect that- for now- it is strictly jumping from infected canines to vulnerable humans.

They also noted that there is a mutation in this virus similar to ones found in SARS, MERS, and COVID which may be key in better suiting it to survive in humans.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> To be fair, being hit less hard than the mainland of the United States isn't exactly anything to brag about.  LOTS of places were less effected than the US.  "Hit less hard than the US" is a very low bar.




Strike that.  Reverse it.  He's comparing to New Zealand.  Saying you got hit harder than _some of the least-affected places on the globe_ is not saying you got hit hard.  



Zardnaar said:


> It might not be much compared to mainland USA but it's not close to normal.




Hawaii's death rate was about 4% higher than normal due to covid.  That is, in fact, not far from normal.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Strike that.  Reverse it.  He's comparing to New Zealand.  Saying you got hit harder than _some of the least-affected places on the globe_ is not saying you got hit hard.
> 
> 
> 
> Hawaii's death rate was about 4% higher than normal due to covid.  That is, in fact, not far from normal.



And (unfortunately) probably well within annual statistical deviation.


----------



## CleverNickName

My wife and I are fully vaccinated, and it's been more than 2 weeks since our last shot.  Mask requirements are relaxing in our state, and businesses are still starting to open.  But we aren't relaxing.  We still work from home, we still stay home whenever we can, and when that's not possible we still wear masks and practice social distancing.  We have no desire to stop anytime soon.

And it's not fear or paranoia, at least not for me...it's anger, resentment.  Relaxing the mask requirement should be a relief, but two minutes on social media reminds us that we still can't trust our fellow citizens to do what's right for the sake of public health.  We have learned that there are people here who value their own comfort and convenience (and bottom lines) over the lives and safety of strangers, and it makes it really hard to want to associate with them.

Dinner at home with a handful of my close friends?  Sure!

Restaurant full of strangers?  Pass.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> And (unfortunately) probably well within annual statistical deviation.




For the nation overall, it seems that the normal variation in death rate is about +/- 2%.  So, covid represents a 20% increase in the death rate overall in the nation, which is huge.

In a smaller, sub-population, you should expect that variation can increase, but the state's population is large enough that its own rate should be pretty stable.  So, it may be within the normal variation, but not by much.


----------



## GreyLord

So, it appears the US had a preliminary estimate of the actual COVID-19 deaths (I think from last year).  It is done the same way that the Flu Deaths are calculated each year.

PRELIMINARY (that means that it could go up or down, it's not the final estimate, that won't be done for months, if not years) numbers seem to indicate over 900,000 actual deaths in the US from Covid-19.  Much higher than the official count...even the current official count.

That is if I heard correctly on it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

GreyLord said:


> So, it appears the US had a preliminary estimate of the actual COVID-19 deaths (I think from last year).  It is done the same way that the Flu Deaths are calculated each year.
> 
> PRELIMINARY (that means that it could go up or down, it's not the final estimate, that won't be done for months, if not years) numbers seem to indicate over 900,000 actual deaths in the US from Covid-19.  Much higher than the official count...even the current official count.
> 
> That is if I heard correctly on it.



Wouldn’t exactly be a surprise- many experts have been saying all along that the official counts were off...to the low side.  Some claimed the undercount could be off by 1/3 to 1/2.

...and that’s with us being relatively accurate.  Some countries _still _have insufficient testing to have reasonable estimates of infection or death rates.  And some in India are claiming the official numbers are 1/10 of reality.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> So, it appears the US had a preliminary estimate of the actual COVID-19 deaths (I think from last year).  It is done the same way that the Flu Deaths are calculated each year.
> 
> PRELIMINARY (that means that it could go up or down, it's not the final estimate, that won't be done for months, if not years) numbers seem to indicate over 900,000 actual deaths in the US from Covid-19.  Much higher than the official count...even the current official count.
> 
> That is if I heard correctly on it.




 In most countries the official numbers are known cases only. Seems reasonable the numbers are estimates only.


----------



## Hussar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Wouldn’t exactly be a surprise- many experts have been saying all along that the official counts were off...to the low side.  Some claimed the undercount could be off by 1/3 to 1/2.
> 
> ...and that’s with us being relatively accurate.  Some countries _still _have insufficient testing to have reasonable estimates of infection or death rates.  And some in India are claiming the official numbers are 1/10 of reality.



Japan is in this boat.  Just had a smaller testing in my city and 8% positive rate or something like that.  Who knows if they are even close to telling the truth.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Japan is in this boat.  Just had a smaller testing in my city and 8% positive rate or something like that.  Who knows if they are even close to telling the truth.




So, there's no one generic "testing" - what the testing rate is/should be, and what the rate ultimately means, depends entirely on the population you are choosing to test, and why.  "Smaller testing," can easily indicate a smaller group that, by selection, is much higher in rate than the general populace, for example.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> So, there's no one generic "testing" - what the testing rate is/should be, and what the rate ultimately means, depends entirely on the population you are choosing to test, and why.  "Smaller testing," can easily indicate a smaller group that, by selection, is much higher in rate than the general populace, for example.



Yeh the meaning is really all over the place. Here I get the impression without symptoms testing is almost never done. (although before surgery is an exception)


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Japan is in this boat.  Just had a smaller testing in my city and 8% positive rate or something like that.  Who knows if they are even close to telling the truth.




 Are the hospitals filling up with people?


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> Yeh the meaning is really all over the place. Here I get the impression without symptoms testing is almost never done. (although before surgery is an exception)




There are times when it makes sense, like when you are trying to monitor a population.  For example, here in Massachusetts, at the various higher-education campuses, they've done frequent testing of students and staff, to try to get on top of any outbreaks that might occur.  They have done so many as to skew results if you just dump that data in with the rest of the testing in the state.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> There are times when it makes sense, like when you are trying to monitor a population.  For example, here in Massachusetts, at the various higher-education campuses, they've done frequent testing of students and staff, to try to get on top of any outbreaks that might occur.  They have done so many as to skew results if you just dump that data in with the rest of the testing in the state.



Oh it definitely makes sense to densely test, in order to track and stop spread but test ANYBODY who may have contacted someone with the disease makes sense. And yes the different testing params of contributing groups of data also confuse matters as well.  This is not simple stuff


----------



## BookTenTiger

Today was the first day since March 2020 that no new patients with COVID were admitted to hospitals in San Francisco!

California also announced a complete reopening on June 15, although of course it will vary county to county. There seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel!


----------



## Zardnaar

Found official government data. I stoped paying attention to numbers a few months ago. 

 Quarantine




__





						Managed isolation and quarantine data | Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment
					

Data and statistics about managed isolation and quarantine in New Zealand.




					www.mbie.govt.nz
				




 Total Stats





__





						COVID-19: Current cases
					

Information about confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand.




					www.health.govt.nz
				




 Virtually no deaths from quarantine even with the Covid positives most if not all were community deaths.

 A few countries still essentially blocked.









						Restrictions on travel from very high risk countries
					

From 11:59PM NZST on Wednesday 28 April 2021, only NZ citizens and their immediate family may travel here from Brazil, India, Pakistan and Papua New Guinea.




					www.immigration.govt.nz
				




 Residents  of NZ from other countries can still come along with a trickle of those who can get visas.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Are the hospitals filling up with people?



No, fortunately.  It is pretty frightening though that it's almost certain that Japan is downplaying things as hard as possible in order to keep the Olympics afloat.  But, then again, I say, "almost certain" without any real evidence.  But, again, since the government controls here over the media are so strong, and the flow of information is so top down and accepted as being okay that it's top down without really any questioning of those in positions of authority, that it's so hard to have any faith at all in the system.

I mean, good grief, the local news here has been dominated by a couple of Vietnamese workers that stole a couple of pigs and had a barbecue.  O.O  This was a half hour expose on my local station.  You can see what I'm talking about when it's really hard to believe anything that's coming down the pipeline.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The loss of your sense of smell due to COVID is a relatively minor symptom, but it’s ripples can drastically change one’s quality of life, and may be linked to depression.  And for some of those who get their sense back, it is disordered.









						'Life-altering:' As millions cope with smell loss from COVID-19, researchers find new explanations and possible treatments
					

Smell loss afflicts the majority of COVID-19 patients. A new understanding is emerging about what causes it, and eventually, how it might be treated.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

German scientist believes he's found solution to blood clots linked to AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccines
					

German scientist believes he's found solution to blood clots linked to AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccines




					news.yahoo.com
				




Basically, a researcher has claimed to figure out why some of the C19 vaccines are causing clots, AND he believes he knows what needs to be done to reformulate the ven to avoid this problem.  Apparently, J&J has contacted him for a consultation.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Choose your international travel locations carefully.  Things are still ugly out there:








						Vietnam detects highly contagious new coronavirus variant as infections surge
					

Vietnam's Health Ministry announced Saturday that it had detected a highly transmissible new variant of the coronavirus that has helped fuel a recent wave of covid-19 infections in the country. Genetic sequencing indicated that the new variant was a mix of the coronavirus strains first detected...




					www.yahoo.com
				




They note that non-pharmaceutical measures seem to be less effective with this one because of its virulence and increased rate of reproduction.  Translation: it is easier to catch, and needs a lower viral load to successfully infect someone,


----------



## Whizbang Dustyboots

I think a lot of folks in the US are going to freak out when cold/flu/COVID season rolls around, these variants migrate north, much like seasonal influenza, and at least partial restrictions come back.


----------



## ssvegeta555

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Choose your international travel locations carefully. Things are still ugly out there:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Vietnam detects highly contagious new coronavirus variant as infections surge
> 
> 
> Vietnam's Health Ministry announced Saturday that it had detected a highly transmissible new variant of the coronavirus that has helped fuel a recent wave of covid-19 infections in the country. Genetic sequencing indicated that the new variant was a mix of the coronavirus strains first detected...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They note that non-pharmaceutical measures seem to be less effective with this one because of its virulence and increased rate of reproduction. Translation: it is easier to catch, and needs a lower viral load to successfully infect someone,



I was hoping to fly out there perhaps October or something. Vietnam was in talks a month and a half ago to slowly open up allowing fully vaccinated individuals to visit. I haven't been able to see my fiance since her country closed down in March of last year. We're planning to get married but looks like it'll be delayed again perhaps to next year if this keeps up. We can always wait. I'm just more concerned about her.

My fiance lives in Ho Chi Minh City and she's telling me the whole city will in lockdown starting midnight. Essential travel only. Her building might be disinfected because there's someone rumored to have covid was in her building recently. But if someone with covid was there, I'd think it'll be fully locked down instead. Her sister's entire district was quarantined today, no one can come out. This all happened within 24 hours.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> They note that non-pharmaceutical measures seem to be less effective with this one because of its virulence and increased rate of reproduction.  Translation: it is easier to catch, and needs a lower viral load to successfully infect someone,




Yeah, this is how contagions generally develop/evolve - they tend to increase in virulence, but decrease in leathality.


----------



## Umbran

ssvegeta555 said:


> Her building might be disinfected because there's someone rumored to have covid was in her building recently. But if someone with covid was there, I'd think it'll be fully locked down instead.




As we find more and more that transmissions from surfaces isn't really a thing, disinfecting _the building_ becomes less and less of an issue.


----------



## Umbran

Whizbang Dustyboots said:


> I think a lot of folks in the US are going to freak out when cold/flu/COVID season rolls around, these variants migrate north, much like seasonal influenza, and at least partial restrictions come back.




Yeah, well, freak-out bars are low these days.  

I'm kind of expecting that booster shots and periodic restrictions and masking will be required for a long time.


----------



## Wyldekarde

I miss playing face-to-face games but here, we personally still have it suspended. It doesn't help that the country where I'm at has not totally lifted quarantine procedures and I predict will still be ongoing for the rest of the year at the minimum. Quarantine has not been lifted at all since it started last year so we're now over 1 year in a quarantine state.  Even though we can go out, I still keep to strict mask always (and face shields) as they are required here and I definitely keep social distancing strictly. 

On a good note though, finding games now for me as a GM who never gets to play has been improving. I can now join pickup games from many international groups active on discord while using VTTs as a medium. I normally use Astral Tabletop but I've also started using Talespire which is pretty fun.


----------



## ssvegeta555

Umbran said:


> As we find more and more that transmissions from surfaces isn't really a thing, disinfecting _the building_ becomes less and less of an issue.



Yeah, it was just a rumor she overheard. No one came by to disinfect anything. But a person living in the room below hers could've been exposed from a co-worker and if the test results are positive, I wouldn't be surprised if they quarantined the whole building. So that's fun...


----------



## Cadence

Our LGS has been open two days a week with pretty small groups for a while (not me).  They were open for FNM for MtG this Friday for the first time since early 2020 and apparently had quite a turn out.  

I couldn't make it, too busy cleaning house to have three friends over for a cookout and some EDH tonight.  (Last one to have second shot had it kick in a few weeks ago).


----------



## Umbran

So, having been largely isolated and anxious about human contact for a year and more takes its toll.

I have a player for whom the thought of being around people again has generated so much stress that he can't come to the table yet.  He's having problems just leaving his house.  

And this is a guy I've known for years - he's not typically fragile.  I feel so bad for him.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> So, having been largely isolated and anxious about human contact for a year and more takes its toll.
> 
> I have a player for whom the thought of being around people again has generated so much stress that he can't come to the table yet.  He's having problems just leaving his house.
> 
> And this is a guy I've known for years - he's not typically fragile.  I feel so bad for him.



I may have mentioned my extreme introversion paying dividends before...

But Mom is my polar opposite, and would eat out almost daily.  She’s been vaccinated since early March, but still hasn’t managed to muster the courage to go anyplace besides MD appointments and other necessary errands.  No in-restaurant dining.  Sometimes, I drive her around town a bit instead of returning directly home.

But she seems to be coming around.  She actually dropped her mask around her neck at the other day.  (Everyone was vaccinated and we were there to get her watch repaired and get some links removed.)


----------



## MarkB

Umbran said:


> Yeah, well, freak-out bars are low these days.
> 
> I'm kind of expecting that booster shots and periodic restrictions and masking will be required for a long time.



The next several months will be the first real test. Until now, variants of the virus have developed based upon whether they can out-compete the original for infection rates. But now that multiple countries have significant immunised populations, this is when we may start seeing variants cropping up on the basis of their resistance to the vaccines.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I was reading an article about the pandemic in which the people crunching the numbers said they tell a tale of 2 Americas.  Among the vaccinated, numbers are dropping greatly,  Among the unvaccinated, numbers have remained stagnant.

The first is to be expected- effective vaccines are effective.  But it’s interesting that the vaccinated are acting as something of a firebreak, in that the numbers for the unvaccinated _aren’t getting worse.  _(Or, possibly, the virus has reached some kind of critical point in its spread in which it is operating at peak efficiency in regards to its life cycle.)

They did note that the nastier variants could change all of that.


----------



## BookTenTiger

I had (vaccinated) friends over for the first time last night for dinner and a movie! This summer I should be able to put together an in-person gaming group again.

Here in San Francisco, we only have four COVID cases in the hospital, and they are all old cases- in other words, no new transmissions. There is light at the end of the tunnel!!!


----------



## Lwaxy

We can't even get vaccinated yet, my country has messed up badly. I'm risk group 2 and still no idea how long before I can get my first shot.


----------



## Grendel_Khan

Lwaxy said:


> We can't even get vaccinated yet, my country has messed up badly. I'm risk group 2 and still no idea how long before I can get my first shot.



Sorry to hear it. Which country (see Germany in your bio but not sure that's where you are now)?


----------



## Zardnaar

Argentina online aquintence following news in South America mentioned this.









						Covid: Peru more than doubles death toll after review
					

Peru now has the highest number of deaths in the world in relation to the size of its population.



					www.google.com
				




 Peru basically doubled it's official death toll and then some due to undercounting. Now has highest per capita death toll in the world.

 Locally not much has changed. Outbreaks in parts of Australia have had officials chasing down arrivals from Australia that didn't need to qurantine and travel bubble to Victoria (Australian state) has closed.

 Still can't get a vaccine not in priority group but more of the in laws have got one due to age. No hurry I suppose.

 Capital with no social distancing filmed by Canadians "stuck" here pre Covid. They just roll over the visas for anyone who got here pre Covid.


----------



## MarkB

The UK's daily deaths from COVID figure showed zero deaths today for the first time since the start of the pandemic.


----------



## Zardnaar

MarkB said:


> The UK's daily deaths from COVID figure showed zero deaths today for the first time since the start of the pandemic.




 That's great.


----------



## Lwaxy

Grendel_Khan said:


> Sorry to hear it. Which country (see Germany in your bio but not sure that's where you are now)?



Yeah, Germany, in a part with very few doctors to boot.


----------



## Istbor

Been very strange. mask mandate for the county lifted this week. Though businesses are still free to require it if they choose. 

While most people where I work, that are expected to be onsite are vaccinated, it still just... _feels_ odd to not walk about these halls without one. I know some people are really looking forward to this Summer, but I have mixed feelings. For other reasons, the summer seems like it is going to be pretty hollow. 

But I am a pessimist.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

One of the reasons you try to reach “herd immunity” is to protect those who can’t be vaccinated and/or have suppressed immune systems,  Here’s one example of what could happen:









						A woman with HIV had the coronavirus for 216 days. The virus mutated at least 30 times inside her.
					

Scientist detected 32 virus mutations in the woman's body, including some seen in variants of concern. It's unclear if she passed on any of them.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Cadence

16 people for Thursday night modern (MtG) this week.

First in-store pre-release in ages this weekend.  My son isn't hold enough to be vaccinated, but played at a side table in a mask with a fan blowing from behind him.  He was ecstatic to be able to be there.


----------



## Zardnaar

Outbreaks in various "safe" countries last month or so. Vietnam, Taiwan, Fiji, Singapore 



			Redirect Notice
		


Vietnam's variant hybrid of UK and Indian variants. 









						Vietnam detects a suspected new coronavirus variant that's a hybrid of the UK and India strains | CNN
					

Vietnam's health ministry has detected a suspected new coronavirus variant which it said appears to be a hybrid of two highly transmissible strains.




					www.google.com
				





  Still reasonably low in the grand scheme of things. Taiwan has gone from virtually no deaths up to 400+. Vietnam around 57 iirc.


----------



## Umbran

And, to help with that long tail of vaccinations, my state has gone into the vaccine lottery business.
Five fully vaccinated people ages 18+ will each  win $1 million.
Five fully vaccinated people ages 12-17 will each win a college scholarship for $300,000.

You have to register and be able to provide proof of vaccination to win, of course.  Registration opens July 1st.


----------



## Horwath

Umbran said:


> And, to help with that long tail of vaccinations, my state has gone into the vaccine lottery business.
> Five fully vaccinated people ages 18+ will win $5 million.
> Five fully vaccinated people ages 12-17 will win a college scholarship.
> 
> You have to register and be able to provide proof of vaccination to win, of course.  Registration opens July 1st.



Do not know really what to say about this.

Do we really have so little trust in science?

I had Covid and got 1st dose of Moderna, waiting 2 weeks for 2nd one.
In Croatia we also have, cannot find a nicer word; but some kind of collective stupidity about vaccination. 
We have more than enough vaccines for everyone to get one shot at least, but we are at 40% one dose and about 17% both doses.

People here whining about clubs not working and bars and restaurants only working until 24h, but when you ask them about getting vaccinated, most say that they wont do it.
Well, how exactly do you thing this will end, you st%#$"# &$#$ ?!?!

Wish that government just puts in 1000€ fine for anyone refusing vaccination without valid medical reasons.


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> Do not know really what to say about this.
> 
> Do we really have so little trust in science?




I totally get where you are coming from with this, but in Massachusetts, that's not the issue.  Our actual vaccine hesitance rates are _ludicrously_ low - on the order of only 5%.  About two-thirds of our population is at least partially vaccinated.  And our rate for people completing the course and getting the second shot is over 95% as well.

Instead, we have two other basic problems about getting to that final third:

1) Folks who are elderly, don't have cars, have to work several jobs or long hours, etc, are hard to get to come in for vaccines.  The state is working on this issue by slowly shutting down the big centralized mass-vaccination centers (that were very efficient, but you had to drive to), and putting the resources towards getting vaccines into local areas - into pharmacies, doctor's offices, running mobile vaccine clinics, and so on, to make it _convenient_, targeting those communities with lower vaccination rates.

2) Getting some of these people off their butts.  Especially men, aged 20-40.  They look at the world, see case rates plummeting, see restrictions lifting, think they are macho, and decide that they don't need to bother.

The lottery is mostly about the second issue - folks who just need that little bit more motivation.  Apparently in Ohio, their lottery did a good job motivating just that demographic.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> And, to help with that long tail of vaccinations, my state has gone into the vaccine lottery business.
> Five fully vaccinated people ages 18+ will win $5 million.
> Five fully vaccinated people ages 12-17 will win a college scholarship.
> 
> You have to register and be able to provide proof of vaccination to win, of course.  Registration opens July 1st.



hmm, $5 million vs. college scholarship?

Give me the $5 million and I'll decide on my own education path.

if you truly got $5 mil (taxes on prizes or payout schedules are weird), that's a $100K salary for 50 years. 

Surely outside of Harvard, one can go to college for less than that a year.

It's like they're screwing young people over on this prize.  Adults can retire, you get to work hard.


----------



## Hussar

Screwing over young people?  The hell you say.  No, no one would ever screw over the younger generation.


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> hmm, $5 million vs. college scholarship?




Sorry, no.  That was a typo.  5 people in $1 million each.

The scholarships are $300,000.


----------



## Horwath

Umbran said:


> The scholarships are $300,000.



Damn.

when do you pay up your scholarship debt? In pension?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Onset of parosmia- a disruption of the senses of smell and taste- has been linked to C19.  The afflicted sense smells and flavors of things OTHER than what they are actually smelling or tasting.  Imagine (as one interviewee related) all fruit tasted like soap.

And apparently, it is long lasting.  The people interviewed for this article all suffered this as a symptom of Covid, and have experienced this disorder for over a year.








						Distorted, Bizarre Food Smells Haunt COVID Survivors
					

Marcel Kuttab first sensed something was awry while brushing her teeth a year ago, several months after recovering from COVID-19. Her toothbrush tasted dirty, so she threw it out and got a new one. Then she realized the toothpaste was at fault. Onions and garlic and meat tasted putrid, and...




					www.yahoo.com
				




I think that of all the non-lethal effects of Covid infection, THIS is one that would hurt me most.


----------



## Zardnaar

Second year in a row of very little flu. 


 Unexpected side effect of Covid/MiQ. Don't think I've even had a cold since 2019.


----------



## Mirtek

Lwaxy said:


> Yeah, Germany, in a part with very few doctors to boot.



Find that hard to believe. We're at >50% with 1st dose and ~26% already fully done.

If there's no doctor there should be a central vaccination centre within 100km

We entered unrestricted access last week because there not even enough group 3 left without that they justify to continue going by priorisation.

We had a slower start than we could have had but right now we catched up in terms of first and second doses to where only a very few countries are farther ahead (only 5 countries with more total doses and some of those have a much bigger population)


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> Sorry, no.  That was a typo.  5 people in $1 million each.
> 
> The scholarships are $300,000.



that's a bit better, but given that there's less testing on <18s, they ought to be due the $1mil and the grups can get $300K.

Ageism goes both ways.  Young folks want the moolah!


----------



## Cadence

Janx said:


> that's a bit better, but given that there's less testing on <18s, they ought to be due the $1mil and the grups can get $300K.
> 
> Ageism goes both ways.  Young folks want the moolah!



Would the parents actually control the young one's money if they got it right now? (I guess it could be put it in a time delayed account that would let them take it out for a short list of emergencies).


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> that's a bit better, but given that there's less testing on <18s, they ought to be due the $1mil and the grups can get $300K.
> 
> Ageism goes both ways.  Young folks want the moolah!




I'm sorry, but your analysis seems to have suffered a mathematics failure.  

The 12-17 year range is less than 10% of the population of the state.  They thus present a smaller portion of the risk pool, but they are still getting about 23% of the funds in this plan.  

Effectively, the young folks are already getting _twice as much money_ as the older folks under this plan. So, you know, slow your judgement roll.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> I'm sorry, but your analysis seems to have suffered a mathematics failure.
> 
> The 12-17 year range is less than 10% of the population of the state.  They thus present a smaller portion of the risk pool, but they are still getting about 23% of the funds in this plan.
> 
> Effectively, the young folks are already getting _twice as much money_ as the older folks under this plan. So, you know, slow your judgement roll.




Motivational money is best targeted at those who need the most motivation, right?  I'm guessing hesitant parents are really hard to motivate about their kids (or can the 12-15 yo get the jab without a parent?).


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> I'm sorry, but your analysis seems to have suffered a mathematics failure.
> 
> The 12-17 year range is less than 10% of the population of the state.  They thus present a smaller portion of the risk pool, but they are still getting about 23% of the funds in this plan.
> 
> Effectively, the young folks are already getting _twice as much money_ as the older folks under this plan. So, you know, slow your judgement roll.



That just gives each minor a higher chance of winning compared to the adult population. The individual winners are still getting shafted, by comparison. It’s still a nice benefit and worth pursuing, but I still think it’s a weirdly unbalanced offering.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> That just gives each minor a higher chance of winning compared to the adult population.




Each minor has about 8x the chance of winning _and_ the program has over twice the funds per kid in the population than per adult. Proportionately speaking the overall pot for kids is twice the size of the pot for adults.



billd91 said:


> The individual winners are still getting shafted, by comparison.




In raw dollar amount, you might think so, but... it means the kid will likely enter the working population with a college education, and no debt to speak of.  That is a _huge_ benefit.  

I will likely be paying off my student loans until I die.  I have friends who got through school without debt, and they've _already retired_, because they could save far more than I could.


----------



## Horwath

Umbran said:


> Each minor has about 8x the chance of winning _and_ the program has over twice the funds per kid in the population than per adult. Proportionately speaking the overall pot for kids is twice the size of the pot for adults.
> 
> 
> 
> In raw dollar amount, you might think so, but... it means the kid will likely enter the working population with a college education, and no debt to speak of.  That is a _huge_ benefit.
> 
> I will likely be paying off my student loans until I die.  I have friends who got through school without debt, and they've _already retired_, because they could save far more than I could.



you can spin it any way you want, but 1.000.000 is 3 scholarships and lots of change.

That is free college degree, a house, so no rent money and very good car without credit line for it. And no worries for life expenses while you study. Talk about a head start.


----------



## billd91

Horwath said:


> you can spin it any way you want, but 1.000.000 is 3 scholarships and lots of change.
> 
> That is free college degree, a house, so no rent money and very good car without credit line for it. And no worries for life expenses while you study. Talk about a head start.



And what if the kid isn't planning on going to college? Do they get nothing? Do they get the $300,000 (substantially less than the $1 million).


----------



## MarkB

billd91 said:


> And what if the kid isn't planning on going to college? Do they get nothing? Do they get the $300,000 (substantially less than the $1 million).



The prizes are only going to a total of ten people across the entire state. Not exactly mass inequity.


----------



## Cadence

billd91 said:


> And what if the kid isn't planning on going to college? Do they get nothing? Do they get the $300,000 (substantially less than the $1 million).




If you just give them the cash...


Cadence said:


> Would the parents actually control the young one's money if they got it right now? (I guess it could be put it in a time delayed account that would let them take it out for a short list of emergencies).




And for some of the kids, do they actually have any say in the matter?


Cadence said:


> Motivational money is best targeted at those who need the most motivation, right?  I'm guessing hesitant parents are really hard to motivate about their kids (or can the 12-15 yo get the jab without a parent?).


----------



## MoonSong

Wow, all this talk and to think that I technically get paid to attend college. (I just had to be born on the right place, to the right parents, talk the right dialect and work in the right place) 

A bit back on topic, if you got vaccinated and didn't get an immediate reaction, you can still get a reaction weeks later. It happened to me, I basically had a miniature episode with Covid-like symptoms. Good thing it was only a reaction. I wouldn't want to catch the real thing.


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> you can spin it any way you want, but 1.000.000 is 3 scholarships and lots of change.




So, it isn't about "spin".  It is about having a different perspective.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> And what if the kid isn't planning on going to college? Do they get nothing? Do they get the $300,000 (substantially less than the $1 million).




To be honest, I am not really so invested at looking free gifts in the mouth to have dug into the terms that deeply.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Unless the Covid lottery laws were written up in such a way as to make the awards non-transferrable, a winner could make a broad range of altruistic or profitable actions with the money awarded.


----------



## Deset Gled

billd91 said:


> And what if the kid isn't planning on going to college? Do they get nothing? Do they get the $300,000 (substantially less than the $1 million).




There's another component to this: taxes.  If the scholarship is set up properly, it is likely that the winner would not have to pay taxes on it.  Everyone that wins the money, however, will owe a large chunk of that prize to the government.  This is another reason why winning a $300k scholarship is potentially better than winning $1M cash.

If someone wins a scholarship but opts not to go to college, it is likely that they can convert the $300k from scholarship money to fungible money, and will probably pay a tax to do so.

Also, going back to your earlier question, in PA when a minor wins a large some of cash it is given to their legal guardian.  Putting the prize as a scholarship is one way to guarantee the parents can't take control of the prize.  I suspect this is similar in MA.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Each minor has about 8x the chance of winning _and_ the program has over twice the funds per kid in the population than per adult. Proportionately speaking the overall pot for kids is twice the size of the pot for adults.
> 
> 
> 
> In raw dollar amount, you might think so, but... it means the kid will likely enter the working population with a college education, and no debt to speak of.  That is a _huge_ benefit.
> 
> I will likely be paying off my student loans until I die.  I have friends who got through school without debt, and they've _already retired_, because they could save far more than I could.




Boomers here got free university then pulled the ladder up on Gen X. 

 Then the Millennials got interest free loans so my generation got it the hardest.  You only pay about 20-25% though. 

 Boomers also got the cheap housing and free everything so there's a few salty over that.


----------



## Zardnaar

Horwath said:


> you can spin it any way you want, but 1.000.000 is 3 scholarships and lots of change.
> 
> That is free college degree, a house, so no rent money and very good car without credit line for it. And no worries for life expenses while you study. Talk about a head start.




 Around 50% tax. That buys a cheap house here. A million dollars might get you an above average house in one of our more expensive city you need around 2 million for a really nice house.


----------



## cmad1977

Zardnaar said:


> Second year in a row of very little flu.
> 
> 
> Unexpected side effect of Covid/MiQ. Don't think I've even had a cold since 2019.




My kids pediatrician said he hasn’t seen many/any sick kids for over a year.


----------



## Zardnaar

cmad1977 said:


> My kids pediatrician said he hasn’t seen many/any sick kids for over a year.




 Nice. 

 No surprise travel bubble hasn't done much for tourism. 


 People don't travel as much it seems even if they can. 

 Usually an over priced tourist trap. Now just overpriced.


----------



## ccs

Zardnaar said:


> Nice.
> 
> No surprise travel bubble hasn't done much for tourism.
> 
> 
> People don't travel as much it seems even if they can.
> 
> Usually an over priced tourist trap. Now just overpriced.



So all those adds for NZ travel I see on TV aren't working?

I stream all the CW Arrowverse superhero shows as one big 3-4hr block each week from their site.  It's free, but comes with adds.  I see NZ travel commercials _at least_ once/episode, & often several.


----------



## Zardnaar

ccs said:


> So all those adds for NZ travel I see on TV aren't working?
> 
> I stream all the CW Arrowverse superhero shows as one big 3-4hr block each week from their site.  It's free, but comes with adds.  I see NZ travel commercials _at least_ once/episode, & often several.




 Apparently not. Think we get the same ads on YouTube. That and Rarotonga ads. Tourism getting it rough but a counter argument has been that it's productivity is so low that you're better off doing anything else. And traveling NZers spend more money elsewhere. 









						New Zealand economy grows 1.6% in latest quarterly data
					

The economy has rebounded more strongly than expected as strong domestic spending and building offset the loss of international tourism.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Tourism's getting it rough but overall economy is growing. Shrugs.


----------



## CapnZapp

Dannyalcatraz said:


> One of the reasons you try to reach “herd immunity” is to protect[/URL]



Sure, except any country where a third of people listens to politicians that are either too ignorant, too stupid, too greedy or just too arrogant to take the pandemic seriously and actively tell people to get vaccinated will never reach herd immunity...

...know any such countries...?


----------



## Umbran

*Mod Note:*

How about we step back from the politics, please and thank you folks.


----------



## Lwaxy

Mirtek said:


> Find that hard to believe. We're at >50% with 1st dose and ~26% already fully done.
> 
> If there's no doctor there should be a central vaccination centre within 100km



We are at 48/23%. However, it is unclear who those vaccinated people are - they must be mostly old, sicker than me, needed personnel or tricked their way to the front line. Or maybe it works better in cities. It does not help to have a vaccination center when they don't get enough doses. We have been waiting for along time, when we should have been done weeks ago due to our priority status. My doc is still working her way throughj old and sick people not able to get to the center.

Finally,we got our first doses yesterday morning, as a surprise drop-in because others could not make it due to the heat. The center could do at least twice times as many people, if they had enough material. Most of the cabins didn't get use.


----------



## Mirtek

Lwaxy said:


> We are at 48/23%. However, it is unclear who those vaccinated people are



As of the 18th we're at 50.1/29.6 and it's exactly known who each of those people is. The RKI monitors and publishes daily.

Group 3 was opened start of May because the number of group 2 still un-vaccinated was too neglible to justify holding back group 3. It's now free for all since two weeks as the number of group 3 still un-vaccinated was too neglible to justify upholding any kind priorisation order anymore.

You must be facing a very localized issue. Are you by chance in Sachsen? They're at last spot with 44.7/29.8 which must be due to an usual high rate of people not being interested.


----------



## Lwaxy

Too neglible? Of my very substancial wider family, by today it is only the older ones, me and 2 cousins who got vaccinated, and the older part of us are mostly group 2. 

We are in RLP. The rest of my family is in Sachsen, SH and BW. 

The RKI knows but I don't. We were among the first to register. We are among the last in group 2 to receive a shot it feels. So I wonder why this is, the people at the center couldn't answer.


----------



## Eltab

Deset Gled said:


> There's another component to this: taxes.  If the scholarship is set up properly, it is likely that the winner would not have to pay taxes on it.  Everyone that wins the money, however, will owe a large chunk of that prize to the government.  This is another reason why winning a $300k scholarship is potentially better than winning $1M cash.



Lottery winnings are taxed like regular income (hourly wages).  The winners are going to get a special one-time visit to the top tax bracket.  It would be a good idea if they put the money in the bank until next April 15th, in case the IRS decides they owe another big dollop.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Besides studying lotteries & the like, I’ve actually had some people close to me experience major windfalls.  I’ve learned there’s all kinds of things you SHOULD do if you experience a major windfall, but most people don’t.  

Besides accounting for taxes, you should divide the “fortune” into distinct pools: some for fun, some for necessities, some for investment, and if it’s your nature, some for charities.  (Which, if possible, should be distributed directly to the charity to avoid taxation issues.)


----------



## Hussar

Just got interesting news here in Japan.  Apparently, they are going to vaccinate large company workers first (after the older folks of course).  So, anyone who doesn't work for a major corporation gets to sit at the back of the bus and wait until the "important" folks go first.

I'm not bitter at all.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Just got interesting news here in Japan.  Apparently, they are going to vaccinate large company workers first (after the older folks of course).  So, anyone who doesn't work for a major corporation gets to sit at the back of the bus and wait until the "important" folks go first.
> 
> I'm not bitter at all.




 Gotta look after the zaibatsu.


----------



## MoonSong

Hussar said:


> Just got interesting news here in Japan.  Apparently, they are going to vaccinate large company workers first (after the older folks of course).  So, anyone who doesn't work for a major corporation gets to sit at the back of the bus and wait until the "important" folks go first.
> 
> I'm not bitter at all.



Reminds me on how in my country the private doctors, dentists and nurses are yet to be vaccinated, but some tv and radio station workers have been already. Every Gov has its own priorities and they will be illogical and out of touch more often than not...

Bad news at home, this week we had a surge in new cases and there was the case of a patient who died of Covid despite being completely vaccinated -or at least the official version is that he was fully vaccinated, there are many reports of people just being led to believe they have been vaccinated when they haven't-


----------



## Zardnaar

Carrot and stick. Here comes the stick. 









						Doctors spreading misinformation about Covid-19 may lose their job - Medical Council
					

The Medical Council is warning doctors spreading misinformation about the Covid-19 pandemic and the vaccination rollout that it could cost them their jobs.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Basically doctors doing conspiracy theory type stuff may have their medical license revoked.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Carrot and stick. Here comes the stick.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Doctors spreading misinformation about Covid-19 may lose their job - Medical Council
> 
> 
> The Medical Council is warning doctors spreading misinformation about the Covid-19 pandemic and the vaccination rollout that it could cost them their jobs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Basically doctors doing conspiracy theory type stuff may have their medical license revoked.



sounds appropriate to me... they are cash grabbing off loons.


----------



## Mirtek

Lwaxy said:


> Too neglible? Of my very substancial wider family, by



  yes, that's whx they opened up for the next group in line, as the current group was a done as could be reasonably hoped for. Simply not enough left to justify holding up the next group in line anymore.


Lwaxy said:


> today it is only the older ones, me and 2 cousins who got vaccinated, and the older part of us are mostly group 2.



 In my wider family everybody who wanted to by now has at very least a date, majority have at least first shot and many already their second. Including group 4 people

Today we sat with 8 colleagues in the canteen and everybody had at least one dose, three of us are already done. All group 3, although the last two just got their first last Thursday 


Lwaxy said:


> We are in RLP. The rest of my family is in Sachsen, SH and BW.



 i am in RLP too, beautiful Westerwald, as much rural coutryside as you can get in RLP.


Lwaxy said:


> The RKI knows but I don't. We were among the first to register. We are among the last in group 2 to receive a shot it feels. So I wonder why this is, the people at the center couldn't answer.



 Whats your responsible Center? Ours is Hachenburg and group three colleagues who registered early may, as soon as group three was accepted, got dates offered already (last one took 8.5 weeks before receiving her invitation and by now has declined it to due her local doctor being faster)

I registered early may too but withdraw before they ever replied with an invitation due to my family doctor in our small village even having received enough doses to start vaccinating his patients .

Got second shot on 14th. Nothing for 26h then a nasty rash spreading from the vaccinated arm accross the chest all the way down to the second arm for a day and then all fine again. No problems before after the first dose.


----------



## Lwaxy

Ours is Simmern, and we didn't even hear anything from them until a few days before.We were lucky to be able to take it on such a short notice because we have workers in and around the house and couldn't leave them alone. I find it all very messy around here.


----------



## Zardnaar

Capital moving to alert level 2. 

 No cases just the possibility. Traveler from Australia using the qurantine free bubble tested positive for Covid after visiting. Linked to Sydney outbreak. 

 Aussies notifified the authorities once test was confirmed. 

 Video version if anyone cares.


----------



## Garthanos

I like hearing about contact tracing and similar things that ahem I think we hardly ever see in the US.


----------



## Cadence

Garthanos said:


> I like hearing about contact tracing and similar things that ahem I think we hardly ever see in the US.




Do a lot of universities in the US have wastewater testing?  I think ours does, but I don't  remember ever seeing them publish what they found.


----------



## Garthanos

Cadence said:


> Do a lot of universities in the US have wastewater testing?  I think ours does, but I don't  remember ever seeing them publish what they found.



I do not know the prevalence but universities do seem to be the main ones engaged with it





						SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Wastewater Testing
					

Learn how scientists from around the world are monitoring the community-level spread of SARS-CoV-2 through wastewater testing.



					www.bio-rad.com
				




The general public does not really hear about it either though


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> I like hearing about contact tracing and similar things that ahem I think we hardly ever see in the US.




Contact tracing has little benefit in times of broad community spread.   



Cadence said:


> Do a lot of universities in the US have wastewater testing?  I think ours does, but I don't  remember ever seeing them publish what they found.




I don't think a lot of universities in the US have wastewater systems separate from the municipalities in which they reside.  And while officials do use wastewater testing as a guide to where hotspots are going to develop, I don't know there's a lot of benefit to individuals in publishing details.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> I don't think a lot of universities in the US have wastewater systems separate from the municipalities in which they reside.  And while officials do use wastewater testing as a guide to where hotspots are going to develop, I don't know there's a lot of benefit to individuals in publishing details.




Now I need to check ours.  I'm guessing they just take samples as it leaves the building.

Is the benefit for the wastewater testing results a lot different than giving the aggregated results of the individual tests?  (We got weekly campus updates on that).


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> Is the benefit for the wastewater testing results a lot different than giving the aggregated results of the individual tests?  (We got weekly campus updates on that).




That would depend on the number of individual tests.  Wastewater testing allows you to test a large area without need to deal with individuals.  It is terribly convenient that way.

If you are weekly testing everyone on campus, that would surely be better than wastewater testing.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> That would depend on the number of individual tests.  Wastewater testing allows you to test a large area without need to deal with individuals.  It is terribly convenient that way.
> 
> If you are weekly testing everyone on campus, that would surely be better than wastewater testing.



It was once a month testing of all faculty (and in theory all students) on campus in the middle of the pandemic.  (Fewer before the infrastructure was in place, and fewer once this past summer and all the vaccines hit).


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> It was once a month testing of all faculty (and in theory all students) on campus in the middle of the pandemic.  (Fewer before the infrastructure was in place, and fewer once this past summer and all the vaccines hit).




Okay, then I would not be surprised if they also did wastewater testing.  That's infrequent enough to leave gaps that wastewater tests could help fill.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> I like hearing about contact tracing and similar things that ahem I think we hardly ever see in the US.




 Yeah they got 7000/day tests fairly quickly. Think our best was 20k/day. They also closed down the travel bubble with the Australian states with outbreaks. 

 We've canceled all plans on foreign travel anyway. Maybe Rarotonga depending on how things go. 

 Leaving is easy enough getting back is hard and all the quarantine facilities are booked out until November then it's Christmas time. 

 Getting stuck in Rarotonga not the worst thing lol.


----------



## Zardnaar

This is our Gamenight location this week. 






  Derp.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Showoff!


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Showoff!



Gamestore owner showing off on Facebook. Yu GI Oh beat D&D and Magic events in turnout.  

Flesh and Blood also seems popular locally.


----------



## Imaculata

Getting my first shot tomorrow. Finally! I heard some people come down with pretty heavy side effects, especially after the 2nd shot; it can make you really sick. Guess I'll have to see for myself.

Meanwhile there are large groups of covid conspiracy loons and anti-vaxers in my province. It is just frustrating to see so much distrust of science and of the government. As if we haven't beaten a deadly desease with vaccinations before, and as if there is any reason for so many governments across the world to willfully tank their economy. It makes me so angry.

Part of me wishes natural selection would sort this out, but there are also a lot of innocent immuno-compromised people at risk because of these jerks.


----------



## J.Quondam

I got my second shot almost exactly three months ago. (!!)
Re: the second dose - Yeah, mine (I had the Pfizer one) was unpleasant but not _too_ bad. Overall, i felt vaguely fatigued and a little achy all over on the day after the shot-- more or less similar to my usual reaction to a flu shot. For me the worst part was just that the site of the shot in my arm ached/stung for several days, then felt better for a few days, then ached again for a few more days.

I got the vaccine so early because I'm in one of those (US) counties with a large  anti-vaxxer population of the, umm, "politically motivated" sort. Authorities opened up access to the shots because they were so desperate to get _anybody_ to take them so the stuff wouldn't just rot. I'm grateful I was in the right place, right time and managed to get vaxxed so early. But it's incredibly frustrating now to see so many folks elsewhere still waiting on theirs, while ignoramuses here are proudly proclaiming _"See, no vaccine, and I didn't get the covid!"_ like they're so much smarter than the medical establishment. I guess time will tell if they're also smarter than these new nastier covid variants slowly worming their way into the country.


----------



## CapnZapp

Getting shot #2 next week here.

It's incredibly frustrating to have even normally intelligent friends apparently succumbing to pandemic fatigue and declaring the situation over.

It's not. It really isn't. Not even in high vaccinated countries.

Delta plus appears to spread faster than people can get vaccinated, and the race nobody's talking about - how to improve the vaccines to stop tomorrow's strains - has already begun.

I am sad and angry to have to face the realization it's not just "people" that are stupid and ignorant, it's people I _know_, people i thought to be intellectual and reasonable...


----------



## J.Quondam

CapnZapp said:


> I am sad and angry to have to face the realization it's not just "people" that are stupid and ignorant, it's people I _know_, people i thought to be intellectual and reasonable...



I feel your pain. Much of my family -- well educated people -- fall into that category.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> I am sad and angry to have to face the realization it's not just "people" that are stupid and ignorant, it's people I _know_, people i thought to be intellectual and reasonable...




So, my apologies if I am preaching to the choir...

It is often not about being stupid or ignorant.  It is about how human cognition is not free of its emotional drives.  And after a year of this crap, the emotional drives can be very, very strong.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> So, my apologies if I am preaching to the choir...
> 
> It is often not about being stupid or ignorant.  It is about how human cognition is not free of its emotional drives.  And after a year of this crap, the emotional drives can be very, very strong.




 That and Covid fatigue. 

 It's not really viable for the majority of people to social distance for 3 years or whatever. 

 Covids not that deadly as fair as pandemics go it's not like the streets are filling up with dead people. You don't really see the direct effects unless it's your family.

 Throw in that humans tend to be terrible at risk assessment (let's live on this volcano) and yeah.


----------



## Hussar

Oy, I live on a volcano.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Oy, I live on a volcano.




 How active though? We had tourists killed because they thought visiting an active volcano was a good idea.


----------



## Zardnaar

Border closed with Australia. 









						Covid-19 in Australia: Case numbers grow, virus in five states, as NZ closes the border
					

Find out where are the outbreaks are happening across the ditch, and what Australian states are introducing restrictions.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Sydney going into a two week lockdown. 

  Level 2 extended 48 hours. 









						Full coverage: Wellington to remain at Covid-19 alert level 2 for additional 48 hours
					

Masterton health worker tests negative for Covid after earlier false-positive result, as alert level 2 is extended across the Wellington region for an additional 48 hours.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 No new cases found  the passenger from Australia infected partner upon return to Oz. No one's know is traveling anyway.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> That and Covid fatigue.




"Covid fatigue" is part and parcel of what I'm talking about.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> "Covid fatigue" is part and parcel of what I'm talking about.




 Yeah even with the best on intentions people will make mistakes or get sick of things. I don't judge to harshly. 

 Complacency is universal also with outbreaks and near misses in the "safe" countries.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> Part of me wishes natural selection would sort this out, but there are also a lot of innocent immuno-compromised people at risk because of these jerks.



Reports from across the USA indicates that natural selection IS starting to sort things out in a statistically significant way.  Hospitals are reporting 95%+- of all new C19 hospitalizations and deaths are of unvaccinated people.  And that has been correlated with states and counties that are Republican led and/or rural, because they have lower vaccination rates coupled with high levels of vaccine hesitancy.

IOW, the people getting sick and dying are in places where vaccination rates are low, are likely to remain so, and are least able to cope with spikes.  With Delta on the rise, it’s very possible such regions could face crippling spikes of dangerous & lethal infections_…in the areas responsible for huge portions of the national food supply._


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Zardnaar said:


> This is our Gamenight location this week.
> 
> View attachment 138848
> 
> Derp.




No fair! I own a game store and I can't even THINK about having people play here until probably September, in the absolute EARLIEST.


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> No fair! I own a game store and I can't even THINK about having people play here until probably September, in the absolute EARLIEST.




 Limited capacity pick up only?


----------



## Imaculata

The Netherlands is starting to drop all covid restrictions. We haven't had any covid deaths in a while, but considering not everyone is fully vaccinated yet, it seems a few months too early to me.


----------



## ccs

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Reports from across the USA indicates that natural selection IS starting to sort things out in a statistically significant way.  Hospitals are reporting 95%+- of all new C19 hospitalizations and deaths are of unvaccinated people.  And that has been correlated with states and counties that are Republican led and/or rural, because they have lower vaccination rates coupled with high levels of vaccine hesitancy.
> 
> IOW, the people getting sick and dying are in places where vaccination rates are low, are likely to remain so, and are least able to cope with spikes.  With Delta on the rise, it’s very possible such regions could face crippling spikes of dangerous & lethal infections_…in the areas responsible for huge portions of the national food supply._



Man, that could almost be a James Bond villains plot.


----------



## Imaculata

Yay, got my first shot! What a relief. It is quite an event. Like waiting in line at a themepark, but the ride is all over before you know it and the giftshop sucks.


----------



## cmad1977

Here in Los Angeles I’m kind of stuck wondering “should I wear a mask?” I mean… we’re told we don’t NEED to… but my rule is that if employees in retail locations have to wear a mask I’ll wear a mask. Seems disrespectful to waltz into a store unmasked when all the help is wearing one.


----------



## Janx

cmad1977 said:


> Here in Los Angeles I’m kind of stuck wondering “should I wear a mask?” I mean… we’re told we don’t NEED to… but my rule is that if employees in retail locations have to wear a mask I’ll wear a mask. Seems disrespectful to waltz into a store unmasked when all the help is wearing one.



Wearing one is not going to hurt you.  and the mask does reduce catching (or spreading) all sorts of stuff, not just covid.


----------



## Ryujin

Got my second jab almost a week ago and won't have to go in for work, until a week from now, so should be as fully protected as I can be. A relief, however, I'll still be masking as it's mandated. 

The day after the second shot (both Moderna) I felt like I had been punched repeatedly in the shoulder, as I had with the first, but also developed other muscle aches. These persisted for almost 3 days. Fine now.


----------



## cmad1977

Janx said:


> Wearing one is not going to hurt you. and the mask does reduce catching (or spreading) all sorts of stuff, not just covid.




Yeah, I’m gonna be using a mask even after all this comes to an end(if). Like, at this point if I’m feeling sick why wouldn’t I wear one? Who goes out and breathes on people when they’re sick anymore? How rude.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

cmad1977 said:


> Here in Los Angeles I’m kind of stuck wondering “should I wear a mask?” I mean… we’re told we don’t NEED to… but my rule is that if employees in retail locations have to wear a mask I’ll wear a mask. Seems disrespectful to waltz into a store unmasked when all the help is wearing one.



A good rule of thumb, IMHO, is to wear one indoors when there's going to be a lot of people around (shopping is a good example) but don't bother outdoors or away from crowds. That should do it.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

cmad1977 said:


> Yeah, I’m gonna be using a mask even after all this comes to an end(if). Like, at this point if I’m feeling sick why wouldn’t I wear one? Who goes out and breathes on people when they’re sick anymore? How rude.



Oh yeah, and if you're sick even a little. Wear a mask then for sure!


----------



## Cadence

cmad1977 said:


> Here in Los Angeles I’m kind of stuck wondering “should I wear a mask?” I mean… we’re told we don’t NEED to… but my rule is that if employees in retail locations have to wear a mask I’ll wear a mask. Seems disrespectful to waltz into a store unmasked when all the help is wearing one.




I'd been doing that... but then at one of our local grocery stories over the past month the masked percent has seemed to randomly go between 20% and 90% depending on who was working!


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> Contact tracing has little benefit in times of broad community spread.



There is a contact tracing system of sorts in my city. Too bad we don't trust the Gov enough to use it.


----------



## Imaculata

Ryujin said:


> The day after the second shot (both Moderna) I felt like I had been punched repeatedly in the shoulder, as I had with the first, but also developed other muscle aches. These persisted for almost 3 days. Fine now.




My arm hurts after my first shot of Pfizer. It feels like having a bruise on your arm. Other than that, no side effects.


----------



## MoonSong

Imaculata said:


> My arm hurts after my first shot of Pfizer. It feels like having a bruise on your arm. Other than that, no side effects.



It's not that simple. I thought at first the worst was a minor migraine the day after. But I got a covid-like episode about two weeks after the shot. And that hurt a lot.


----------



## Imaculata

Yikes. Good to know.


----------



## Ryujin

MoonSong said:


> There is a contact tracing system of sorts in my city. Too bad we don't trust the Gov enough to use it.



There is a Covid-19 tracing app in Canada and I started using it, however, it turned on everything it could on my phone; Bluetooth, NFC, you name it. It also was written poorly in that it demanded access to pretty much everything, instead of just what it needed. As a result my phone was burning through a charge so quickly that it wouldn't last a day at work, making the app worse than useless, in my opinion.


----------



## Imaculata

I wouldn't trust any app made by my government. They are notoriously incompentent, and about 20 years behind on internet security. It is kind of like putting your granny in charge of your phone's security.


----------



## Zardnaar

I don't think our app requires any details. 

 Use of it isn't very high though except when there's a leak or scare.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Imaculata said:


> My arm hurts after my first shot of Pfizer. It feels like having a bruise on your arm. Other than that, no side effects.



My bruise from the Johnson and Johnson vaccine lasted nearly a week, and I could barely move my arm the first two days. My other symptoms only lasted the first day after the shot, though.


----------



## Cadence

AcererakTriple6 said:


> My bruise from the Johnson and Johnson vaccine lasted nearly a week, and I could barely move my arm the first two days. My other symptoms only lasted the first day after the shot, though.




My first pfizer had basically nothing (except my imagination in the minutes after), the second I had a headache the second day for an hour or two.

On the other hand, I definitely had some arm pain for a few days after my first shingles shot earlier this summer...


----------



## Hussar

One of my students just had her second shot.  Here in Japan, masking has always been pretty much universal and it's been very common to mask up when you have a sniffle even before all this.  But, I asked her if she'd go out without her mask, since she doesn't actually need it, and she said, "No, too many people will look at me funny."  

Kinda similar to how folks here who aren't in cities that are under emergency measures, won't travel because their license plates have the same prefecture name as the city.    My doctor student was lamenting he couldn't travel despite having his shots and not being in an emergency location just because of his license plates.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Hussar said:


> One of my students just had her second shot.  Here in Japan, masking has always been pretty much universal and it's been very common to mask up when you have a sniffle even before all this.  But, I asked her if she'd go out without her mask, since she doesn't actually need it, and she said, "No, too many people will look at me funny."
> 
> Kinda similar to how folks here who aren't in cities that are under emergency measures, won't travel because their license plates have the same prefecture name as the city.    My doctor student was lamenting he couldn't travel despite having his shots and not being in an emergency location just because of his license plates.



Ah, the Japanese. Taking community-mindedness to the next level! (This is meant with all the love of a friendly gaijin. I've been there several times.)


----------



## ccs

I got the Moderna version.
My 1st shot?  Several hours later I got the munchies really bad.  It was as if I'd smoked half a bag of pot.
My 2nd shot?  Nothing.  Then the next day I woke up with my shoulder aching a bit.
And that was that.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

I had Moderna too. Sore arm. That's it. Haven't had my second yet, but I'll probably wind up with Pfizer. Don't expect anything from that either.


----------



## Imaculata

Shouldn't you be getting the same vaccine for your second shot? I'm not sure if a 2nd shot with a different vaccine will even work.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Imaculata said:


> Shouldn't you be getting the same vaccine for your second shot? I'm not sure if a 2nd shot with a different vaccine will even work.




The mRNA vaccines (Moderna and Pfizer) are considered pretty much interchangeable by many health authorities (they basically do the same thing). The main reason to match them, as far as I know, is because if you had little-to-no side effects from your first shot, you are considered very safe for your second (if you get the same one) whereas it's not certain if you'd have a potential reaction to a different shot. That said, there's still no reason to think that you _would_ have a reaction to a different vaccine, it's just not known for sure. At any rate, doctors in my country believe that it's safe to mix them, and will give me whatever is available at the time (of those two, not any other ones). I know a number of people who have had both vaccines.


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> The mRNA vaccines (Moderna and Pfizer) are considered pretty much interchangeable by many health authorities (they basically do the same thing). The main reason to match them, as far as I know, is because if you had little-to-no side effects from your first shot, you are considered very safe for your second (if you get the same one) whereas it's not certain if you'd have a potential reaction to a different shot. That said, there's still no reason to think that you _would_ have a reaction to a different vaccine, it's just not known for sure. At any rate, doctors in my country believe that it's safe to mix them, and will give me whatever is available at the time (of those two, not any other ones). I know a number of people who have had both vaccines.



In Canada there's also a bit of mix-&-match going on because of supply issues and the problems with acceptance of the AstraZeneca vaccine, elsewhere. Given the number of Canadians to travel to the United States regularly and their lack of acceptance of that vaccine, many Canadians are receiving a mRNA vaccine as their second dose.


----------



## Not a Hobbit

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Reports from across the USA indicates that natural selection IS starting to sort things out in a statistically significant way.  Hospitals are reporting 95%+- of all new C19 hospitalizations and deaths are of unvaccinated people.  And that has been correlated with states and counties that are Republican led and/or rural, because they have lower vaccination rates coupled with high levels of vaccine hesitancy.
> 
> IOW, the people getting sick and dying are in places where vaccination rates are low, are likely to remain so, and are least able to cope with spikes.  With Delta on the rise, it’s very possible such regions could face crippling spikes of dangerous & lethal infections_…in the areas responsible for huge portions of the national food supply._



Never mind.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Damn.  Don’t put your masks away yet.  The WHO is recommending a return to mask mandates because of Delta. 








						‘Bringing back mask mandate is a good idea’: doctor on Delta variant
					

The World Health Organization’s decision to encourage those who are fully vaccinated to wear masks as a result of the highly transmissible delta variant is ‘a good idea,’ according to University of Arizona College of Medicine-Phoenix’s Dr. Shad Marvasti.




					finance.yahoo.com
				




Here’s why:


> Preliminary findings by Israeli health officials found that about half of adults infected by the Delta variant in the country were fully vaccinated, the Wall Street Journal reported, and as it stands now, the Delta variant is likely causing about 90% of new infections in Israel.


----------



## Imaculata

Called it!

The Netherlands lifted mask requirements, and of course this means everyone immediately stops wearing masks. But not everyone is even fully vaccinated yet, and covid variants have already been spotted. So I've been keeping my mask on, and resumed all other covid safety measures.

But it seems that much like when this all started, people are mostly wearing masks because they have to, and not to protect themselves or others.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

TBH, despite being fully vaccinated, I’ve continued to mask up.  Partly out of concern for a breakthrough infection.  Partly to ease Mom’s concerns.  Partly to lead by example.

Now it looks like concern #1 is more concrete.


----------



## Zardnaar

Got a text message today saying I'm in the next group. Phrased like "our records show". 

 I guess my records from the doctor or pharmacy went to the local health board and I qualify for group 3 along with my wife's cousin who is 21. 

 So apparently I'll get invited for vaccine sometime in July. If I have a choice late July or early July is better. 

 Assuming we have vaccines they're about to run out same day more doses are scheduled to arrive.


----------



## CapnZapp

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Damn. Don’t put your masks away yet. The WHO is recommending a return to mask mandates because of Delta.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ‘Bringing back mask mandate is a good idea’: doctor on Delta variant
> 
> 
> The World Health Organization’s decision to encourage those who are fully vaccinated to wear masks as a result of the highly transmissible delta variant is ‘a good idea,’ according to University of Arizona College of Medicine-Phoenix’s Dr. Shad Marvasti.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> finance.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Here’s why:



Just a general observation - statistics is hard.

If everybody is vaccinated, then of course many cases will be vaccinated people. The question the quote does not address is: how many cases? (Per Capita)


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> If everybody is vaccinated, then of course many cases will be vaccinated people. The question the quote does not address is: how many cases? (Per Capita)




Google's vax stats say about 57% of Israeli citizens are fully vaccinated, and about 61% have had at least one dose of vaccine.  The Population is about 9 million people.

In May, in Israel, the 7 day average number of new cases was below 50.  As of June 27, it had tripled to nearly 150 per day.

The article notes that half the cases they see are vaccinated people.  If the vaccine was fully effective, that would be zero.  It is was completely ineffective, it would be around 60%.  So, vaccinated people are not seeing a whole lot of protection.

This is possibly due to their own behavior - vaccinated folks thinking they are perfectly safe getting themselves strong exposures that blow past their vaccine protections.  Thus the advice to mask up again.


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> TBH, despite being fully vaccinated, I’ve continued to mask up.  Partly out of concern for a breakthrough infection.  Partly to ease Mom’s concerns.  Partly to lead by example.
> 
> Now it looks like concern #1 is more concrete.



The mask doesn't help you with #1, though, unless everyone is wearing one.  Masks do very little to stop Covid from coming in, outside of the N95 masks anyway.  The primary use of masks is to stop/slow outgoing droplets laden with virus.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Google's vax stats say about 57% of Israeli citizens are fully vaccinated, and about 61% have had at least one dose of vaccine.  The Population is about 9 million people.
> 
> In May, in Israel, the 7 day average number of new cases was below 50.  As of June 27, it had tripled to nearly 150 per day.
> 
> The article notes that half the cases they see are vaccinated people.  If the vaccine was fully effective, that would be zero.  It is was completely ineffective, it would be around 60%.  So, vaccinated people are not seeing a whole lot of protection.




Anyone know what vaccine is in use there?  That seems--out of keeping--with data from other places, even about Delta.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> Anyone know what vaccine is in use there?  That seems--out of keeping--with data from other places, even about Delta.




The Lancet says they use Pfizer.


----------



## Maxperson

The Delta Variant seems to hit the partially vaccinated much harder than fully vaccinated people.  I wonder what percentage of vaccinated Delta victims in Israel had only one dose. Below are the numbers from England.

"Out of the 92,029 total infections attributed to delta, almost 20,000 were recorded in people who had received one dose of a Covid vaccine (both before and following 21 days after a first dose) and 7,235 infections were confirmed in people who had received two doses."









						Young, unvaccinated, over 50 or just had one dose? You're most at risk from the Covid delta variant
					

Data has been released in England showing just how far the delta variant has spread — and which groups are most vulnerable to the mutation.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Thomas Shey

Well, that's just really odd then.  Unless the "new cases" is counting anyone who tests positive at all, in which case, well, I haven't heard any of the vaccines being noted as preventing that completely; they just keep the viral count down to the point its not particularly meaningful to the person involved (which is why vaccinated individuals can still be infectious, though usually much less so).


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> Well, that's just really odd then.  Unless the "new cases" is counting anyone who tests positive at all





Yes, we are talking "cases", not "hospitalizations" or the like.  The effectiveness of the vaccines was primarily tested against "getting sick", meaning showing serious symptoms.  So, it may be those cases are people who are themselves perfectly safe.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Yeah, at that point that's not ultimately that surprising, given everything.


----------



## Imaculata

Seems wise to continue disinfecting your hands after going outside, avoiding large crowds, and maintaining social distance.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> Seems wise to continue disinfecting your hands after going outside, avoiding large crowds, and maintaining social distance.




Turns out it's good for everything else as well. 

 Mostly no flu two years running.


----------



## Mirtek

In Europe there's argument that mixing might even be better for resulting protection, due to it causing recognition of a wider range of spike proteins.

AFAIK there's not yet officially recommend to mix but it's already not seen as being problematic


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> Turns out it's good for everything else as well.
> 
> Mostly no flu two years running.




A number of sources I've seen suggest that the frequent masking hasn't hurt here, either.


----------



## GreyLord

With the breakthrough cases in Israel, do we know how serious they are in those that are vaccinated but still getting the Virus.

That's something I'd be extremely interested in knowing.  Whether vaccinations makes it so the viral load is reduced to the point where you have almost no symptoms (a day or two with a runny nose...maybe) to mild symptoms (not so good, this includes the loss of taste and smell) to serious symptoms (hospitalization).

If it is the first, I would feel a lot safer as the area I live in is very anti-vax at the moment with probably 30% of the population being vaccinated.  My and our group of gaming friends are all vaccinated at this point (and planning on gaming over the next week in person for the FIRST time in a LONG while (indeed, since the beginning of this thread), but considering the others around me in my community, I am very concerned about what I should or should not look at trying to do now that I am vaccinated.


----------



## Thomas Shey

It can reach any of those, though serious symptoms among the vaccinated are very rare--but the Law of Large Numbers applies.


----------



## Ryujin

Thomas Shey said:


> It can reach any of those, though serious symptoms among the vaccinated are very rare--but the Law of Large Numbers applies.



As does the law of random chance. Get a large enough sample group and "bad things" (tm) will happen by utter coincidence. I've lost track of the number of times I have been reported by clients for taking down the network, just because I happened to walk by a network riser.


----------



## Imaculata

I'm not sure if any of you watch the Late Show with Stephen Colbert. But Jon Stewart made an appearance a few weeks ago, where he started spreading conspiracy theories about covid being created in a lab. As much as I enjoy him as a comedian, it was painful to watch, and full of fallacies. But I fear his comedic rant is easily accepted by a gullible audience. We don't need more of this right now. It is especially surprising coming from him. I thought he was smarter than that.

For those of you who missed it. He basically said that it can't be a coincidence that covid arose in the same region as a Chinese covid lab. Thus supporting the conspiracy theory that covid was created in a Chinese lab. He compared it to a chocolate spill happening near a chocolate factory.

Of course the fallacies here are obvious. Just because there are a lot of whale-watching tourists near a bunch of whales, does not mean tourists caused the whales to appear. Obviously you would put a lab to study covid variants, in a location where covid is often found. Plus there are many kinds of covid. Just because someone is studying tigers, does not mean they are responsible when there is a sudden series of panther attacks in the same region.

As of yet Jon Stewart has not apologised for his ill informed and dangerous rant. At least, as far as I know.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Imaculata said:


> I'm not sure if any of you watch the Late Show with Stephen Colbert. But Jon Steward made an appearance a few weeks ago, where he started spreading conspiracy theories about covid being created in a lab. As much as I enjoy him as a comedian, it was painful to watch, and full of fallacies. But I fear his comedic rant is easily accepted by a gullible audience. We don't need more of this right now. It is especially surprising coming from him. I thought he was smarter than that.
> 
> For those of you who missed it. He basically said that it can't be a coincidence that covid arose in the same region as a Chinese covid lab. Thus supporting the conspiracy theory that covid was created in a Chinese lab. He compared it to a chocolate spill happening near a chocolate factory.
> 
> Of course the fallacies here are obvious. Just because there are a lot of whale-watching tourists near a bunch of whales, does not mean tourists caused the whales to appear. Obviously you would put a lab to study covid variants, in a location where covid is often found. Plus there are many kinds of covid. Just because someone is studying tigers, does not mean they are responsible when there is a sudden series of panther attacks in the same region.
> 
> As of yet Jon Steward has not apologised for his ill informed and dangerous rant. At least, as far as I know.




I find your post hyperbolic. As far as I know they haven't proven any theory yet.
Could you please provide a link where the wild theory has been proven to be irrefutable such as finding an animal possessing the virus?

We do not have an animal and it is close to two years - whereas in previous outbreaks animals were indeed found. But we do have a lab in the area that was doing gain of function research on corona viruses and there has been video footage of bats in such lab.

Also it is Stewart not Steward.


----------



## Not a Hobbit

Imaculata said:


> As much as I enjoy him as a comedian, it was painful to watch, and full of fallacies. But I fear his comedic rant is easily accepted by a gullible audience. We don't need more of this right now. It is especially surprising coming from him. I thought he was smarter than that.



This is John Stewart's entire career. 
It actually is Stephen Colbert's as well.


----------



## Zardnaar

Not a Hobbit said:


> This is John Stewart's entire career.
> It actually is Stephen Colbert's as well.




 Not a fan of either one. I have liked some of Stephen Colbert's work though so I like him better. 

 I can't imagine watching either one on a regular basis. Problem is if you watch a lot diminishing returns sets in.


----------



## Horwath

Imaculata said:


> I'm not sure if any of you watch the Late Show with Stephen Colbert. But Jon Steward made an appearance a few weeks ago, where he started spreading conspiracy theories about covid being created in a lab. As much as I enjoy him as a comedian, it was painful to watch, and full of fallacies. But I fear his comedic rant is easily accepted by a gullible audience. We don't need more of this right now. It is especially surprising coming from him. I thought he was smarter than that.
> 
> For those of you who missed it. He basically said that it can't be a coincidence that covid arose in the same region as a Chinese covid lab. Thus supporting the conspiracy theory that covid was created in a Chinese lab. He compared it to a chocolate spill happening near a chocolate factory.
> 
> Of course the fallacies here are obvious. Just because there are a lot of whale-watching tourists near a bunch of whales, does not mean tourists caused the whales to appear. Obviously you would put a lab to study covid variants, in a location where covid is often found. Plus there are many kinds of covid. Just because someone is studying tigers, does not mean they are responsible when there is a sudden series of panther attacks in the same region.
> 
> As of yet Jon Steward has not apologised for his ill informed and dangerous rant. At least, as far as I know.



I did not watch Late Show, but how is suggesting that a virus is created in a lab is dangerous?

What else did he stated?

Did he also suggest to people that they should not get vaccinated? Because, that WOULD be stupid and dangerous.

"Lab" theory is the same as "bat" theory. One may be more plausible than other, but there is no concrete 100% evidence to prove or disprove either.


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> I'm not sure if any of you watch the Late Show with Stephen Colbert. But Jon Steward made an appearance a few weeks ago, where he started spreading conspiracy theories about covid being created in a lab.




I felt a bit bad for Colbert on that one.  He's there trying to quietly note reasonable possibilities, while tryong to not cheese off the guest who is viewed highly positive by his audience, and really got Colbert his start.



AnotherGuy said:


> I find your post hyperbolic. As far as I know they haven't proven any theory yet.
> Could you please provide a link where the wild theory has been proven to be irrefutable such as finding an animal possessing the virus?




If they came up with an animal, all you'd have to say is, "well, the virus got released from the lab, and it made its way into an animal!"

One issue with Stewart's piece was his repeated "It is in the _NAME_!  The Wuhan Coronavirus Lab!"  In fact, the lab is the Wuhan Institute of Virology.  They do study coronaviruses at the lab, but they also study a lot of other things, and "coronavirus" does not appear in the name. If Stewart can't even get that fact straight, when it is _the emotional core of his argument_, the rest of his assertion ought to be thought of skeptically.

The key to understanding the issue requires understanding of genetics - viruses constructed in labs wind up pretty distinctive from wild viruses in their genetic structure.  SARS-COV-2 looks like a wild virus, not a man-made one.



AnotherGuy said:


> We do not have an animal and it is close to two years - whereas in previous outbreaks animals were indeed found.




That last is not correct.  They did not find _the same strain_ of SARS that infects humans in the animal population.  What they found was that coronaviruses exist in the bat population, and that the reservoir of viruses found in one cave had all the genetic pieces that existed in SARS, such that the virus likely came from there, possibly with a civet as a go-between bats and humans.

The other thing to note is that the cave the SARS virus likely came from is in Yunnan province.  The SARS outbreak started in Hunan province 900 miles to the to the east!  It was like having the cave in Ohio, but the epidemic starting in Connecticut!  Where we humans first notice the disease in humans, and where the virus actually comes from, can be widely separated.

Ergo, there's no particular reason to think this came from the lab just because the first cases were reported nearby.



AnotherGuy said:


> But we do have a lab in the area that was doing gain of function research on corona viruses and there has been video footage of bats in such lab.




Well, duh.  The SARS epidemic came up in 2002.  Researchers from the WVI, along with others, started searching for the source of the virus in 2005.  If you are going to study a virus that comes from bats, you will want bats around!  They sampled thousands of bats, and came up with over 300 strains of coronaviruses in bats from all around China.


----------



## Zardnaar

" But the economy". 

 Most if us know it's a lie. Earlier in the week it came out the economy has recovered to pre Covid levels, unemployment is trending down to under 4%.









						Covid-19: New Zealand ranks second in 'return to normal' ranking
					

A survey by The Economist magazine shows Hong Kong, New Zealand leading the way in returning to normal during the pandemic.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Number two beaten by Hong Kong.


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> I did not watch Late Show, but how is suggesting that a virus is created in a lab is dangerous?




Dude, at even the _suggestion_, violence against Asians of all sorts in the US has risen markedly since the pandemic began.


----------



## Horwath

Umbran said:


> Dude, at even the _suggestion_, violence against Asians of all sorts in the US has risen markedly since the pandemic began.



Violence is caused by stupidity, not what one comedian said.

Virus is chinese in origin.
And I highly doubt that some racist will care if the outbreak was caused by some guy cooking a bat or being bit by bat or some researcher not closing the test vial properly.

They see a person from any part of east Asia and they think that it's THE person from Wuhan directly responsible for pandemic.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Umbran said:


> The key to understanding the issue requires understanding of genetics - viruses constructed in labs wind up pretty distinctive from wild viruses in their genetic structure.  SARS-COV-2 looks like a wild virus, not a man-made one.




That _looks like_ is doing a lot of heavy lifting for you when in fact there were several studies last year (from Australia and Europe) which identified markers of genetic manipulation. Add to that a certain email a certain someone received last year and what you have is it _looks like _there is more to this story.



Umbran said:


> That last is not correct.  They did not find _the same strain_ of SARS that infects humans in the animal population.  What they found was that coronaviruses exist in the bat population, and that the reservoir of viruses found in one cave had all the genetic pieces that existed in SARS, such that the virus likely came from there, possibly with a civet as a go-between bats and humans.




Well, that may mean there may have been previous lab breakouts which we do have history thereof. Our-god complex will ensure we keep making the same mistakes.



Umbran said:


> The other thing to note is that the cave the SARS virus likely came from is in Yunnan province.  The SARS outbreak started in Hunan province 900 miles to the to the east!  It was like having the cave in Ohio, but the epidemic starting in Connecticut!  Where we humans first notice the disease in humans, and where the virus actually comes from, can be widely separated.
> 
> Ergo, there's no particular reason to think this came from the lab just because the first cases were reported nearby.




Ergo there is no particular reason to think this did not come from a lab because the first cases were reported nearby.



Umbran said:


> Well, duh.  The SARS epidemic came up in 2002.  Researchers from the WVI, along with others, started searching for the source of the virus in 2005.  If you are going to study a virus that comes from bats, you will want bats around!  They sampled thousands of bats, and came up with over 300 strains of coronaviruses in bats from all around China.




Perhaps you missed the tweet by Peter Daszak (the WHO investigator) who claimed there were no bats in the Wuhan lab. That is understandable since he did afterall delete it when intel proved him to be a liar.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Horwath said:


> Virus is chinese in origin.




Geographically yes, but if it were a lab outbreak then the blame would, at the very minimum, lie on both governments.


----------



## Horwath

AnotherGuy said:


> Geographically yes, but if it were a lab outbreak then the blame would, at the very minimum, lie on both governments.



Well OFC, why would anyone blame anyone else than CCP for this. Either the release(if it is true), but certanly the coverup after it and downplaying of numbers.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Horwath said:


> Well OFC, why would anyone blame anyone else than CCP for this. Either the release(if it is true), but certanly the coverup after it and downplaying of numbers.




What I meant was, it is now known that EcoHealth Alliance funded this type of research in Wuhan and the NIH gave million-dollar grants to EcoHealth Alliance. It is also known that this research was once more approved by NIH in 2017
(since it being stopped in 2014).

If it were a lab leak, you would suspect there would be a cover-up, in whatever form, from both the CCP and the NIH (i.e. part of US government). History is full of governments and large corporates covering up mistakes or transgressions. 

We are far from Starfleet (prior the introduction of Section 31).


----------



## Umbran

AnotherGuy said:


> That _looks like_ is doing a lot of heavy lifting for you when in fact there were several studies last year (from Australia and Europe) which identified markers of genetic manipulation. Add to that a certain email a certain someone received last year and what you have is it _looks like _there is more to this story.




These unnamed studies and "certain someone" claims are core rumor-mongering behaviors. 

Cites from reliable news sources, or you can fold it five ways and toss your implications on the compost heap with the rest of the barn sweepings.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Umbran said:


> These unnamed studies and "certain someone" claims are core rumor-mongering behaviors.
> 
> Cites from reliable news sources, or you can fold it five ways and toss your implications on the compost heap with the rest of the barn sweepings.



I could say the same about your _looks like _comment.


----------



## Umbran

AnotherGuy said:


> I could say the same about your _looks like _comment.




Sorry, but you started with the assertion about lab origins first.  Onus of prof is on the one who makes the assertion. My onus is to meet or exceed your support, which at the moment is unsupported conspiracy theorizing.


----------



## Maxperson

Imaculata said:


> I'm not sure if any of you watch the Late Show with Stephen Colbert. But Jon Steward made an appearance a few weeks ago, where he started spreading conspiracy theories about covid being created in a lab. As much as I enjoy him as a comedian, it was painful to watch, and full of fallacies. But I fear his comedic rant is easily accepted by a gullible audience. We don't need more of this right now. It is especially surprising coming from him. I thought he was smarter than that.
> 
> For those of you who missed it. He basically said that it can't be a coincidence that covid arose in the same region as a Chinese covid lab. Thus supporting the conspiracy theory that covid was created in a Chinese lab. He compared it to a chocolate spill happening near a chocolate factory.
> 
> Of course the fallacies here are obvious. Just because there are a lot of whale-watching tourists near a bunch of whales, does not mean tourists caused the whales to appear. Obviously you would put a lab to study covid variants, in a location where covid is often found. Plus there are many kinds of covid. Just because someone is studying tigers, does not mean they are responsible when there is a sudden series of panther attacks in the same region.
> 
> As of yet Jon Steward has not apologised for his ill informed and dangerous rant. At least, as far as I know.



He went too far in declaring it to absolutely be from the facility, but it's not a conspiracy theory to think that it could be from the facility.  There's a significant chance that it did, which is why many people, including highly respected scientists and governments are looking hard at it right now.


----------



## CleverNickName

Maxperson said:


> He went too far in declaring it to absolutely be from the facility, but it's not a conspiracy theory to think that it could be from the facility.  There's a significant chance that it did, which is why many people are looking hard at it right now.



I wouldn't call it a "significant" chance without significant evidence.


----------



## Maxperson

CleverNickName said:


> I wouldn't call it a "significant" chance without significant evidence.



We don't know that it came from the wild any more than we know that it came from the facility.  Yet people are all hog wild to declare it to be natural and not manmade.  What's good for the goose is good for the gander. 

In a facility dedicated to the coronaviruses, where they went to study bats in caves with masks unworn not long prior to the outbreak(which China lied about and said didn't happen), members of the facility all came down sick and had to go to the hospital right before the virus began spreading through Wuhan.  There's enough circumstantial evidence to absolutely think it could have come from the facility. Even if it's only a 5% or 10% chance that it did, that's very significant.


----------



## CleverNickName




----------



## Zardnaar

I don't think there's evidence of genetic tampering last I heard and the only westerner there an Australian said it was reasonable place to be in regards to safety etc. 

 No one knows for certain where it came from and there's also samples in Europe dating a lot earlier than Wuhan but not sure if there's any more news on them. 

 It's a fairly crap bio weapon as well if it was man made. At the worst plain old incompetence probably. Not helped by obfuscation and general realities of the CCP.

 If you make a claim it's also on you to provide evidence if need be. Vs an opinion. The joke maybe in bad taste it's been a crap year laughter helps perhaps.


----------



## Maxperson

CleverNickName said:


>



Yep, just like multiple governments and many scientists.


----------



## Imaculata

Horwath said:


> I did not watch Late Show, but how is suggesting that a virus is created in a lab is dangerous?




Do we need any more examples this year that spreading misinformation and conspiracy theories can have dangerous outcomes?


----------



## Maxperson

Imaculata said:


> Do we need any more examples this year that spreading misinformation and conspiracy theories can have dangerous outcomes?



It's neither misinformation, nor a conspiracy theory, though, to believe that the Wuhan facility is a very possible source of the Covid 19 and that it needs to be looked into.


----------



## GreyLord

Maxperson said:


> He went too far in declaring it to absolutely be from the facility, but it's not a conspiracy theory to think that it could be from the facility.  There's a significant chance that it did, which is why many people, including highly respected scientists and governments are looking hard at it right now.




This is what I've heard as well.

What I'm about to say is NOT political, but simply restating what I've heard and read.  I'll post an older, but good story on it below from NPR.

Initially, the international community did NOT want to say anything about where it may have come from.  They needed China's cooperation in order to do the actual investigation.  President Trump (at the time the US President) decided to blame China and say it came from a Lab.  This was probably based on intelligence he received at the time or reports regarding suspicions that this was the origins of the virus.  Instead of keeping it quiet in order to help insure the ability to do a true investigation into the virus's orgins, he broadcasted his accusations of this publically.

This made China uncooperative.  This made doing an actual investigation impossible.  If it came from a Lab or had origins in the Lab, the investigators no longer had the access to actually find out.  In fact, this hindered their investigation into the origins of the Virus almost impossible on all fronts, from figuring if it came from a natural source, where that sources, was, or any other theory.  

Thus, they have NO hard evidence (or did not) on it's origins because they were not really allowed into China to do a full investigation in the manner which they would have to figure out the mystery.  This means, at this time, we still do not know where the virus actually originated from, though there are suspicions on several fronts.

Relations with China also makes it a sensitive matter to investigate.

NPR Theory that COVID Came from a Lab takes New Life


----------



## Ryujin

I don't know that people are going "all hog wild" to declare that it's a natural virus. That's simply the default, unless something else can be definitely proven.


----------



## CleverNickName

Maxperson said:


> It's neither misinformation, nor a conspiracy theory, though, to believe that the Wuhan facility is a very possible source of the Covid 19 and that it needs to be looked into.



But "possible" doesn't mean the same thing as "probable" or "likely," and people tend to blur them together.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> I don't know that people are going "all hog wild" to declare that it's a natural virus. That's simply the default, unless something else can be definitely proven.



And in most cases we don't have China lying about their covid numbers(well, yes we do), have a Covid research facility at ground zero, have China lying about researches going to study covid viruses in bats not long before the pandemic started, find pictures of said scientists there not long before the pandemic started with said scientists not wearing protective masks, and then have some of those scientists hospitalized in November of 2019 for an illness.

We can't just accept the default and ignore the very real possibility that it came from the research facility.


----------



## Maxperson

CleverNickName said:


> But "possible" doesn't mean the same thing as "probable" or "likely," and people tend to blur them together.



Sure, but possible in this case isn't super long odds, either.  It's significant enough that the idea needs to be investigated fully.


----------



## CleverNickName

Maxperson said:


> Sure, but possible in this case isn't super long odds, either.  It's significant enough that the idea needs to be investigated fully.



Again, "significant possiblility" requires significant evidence.  While I agree an investigation is warranted, right now we have little more than coincidence.


----------



## Ryujin

Maxperson said:


> And in most cases we don't have China lying about their covid numbers(well, yes we do), have a Covid research facility at ground zero, have China lying about researches going to study covid viruses in bats not long before the pandemic started, find pictures of said scientists there not long before the pandemic started with said scientists not wearing protective masks, and then have some of those scientists hospitalized in November of 2019 for an illness.
> 
> We can't just accept the default and ignore the very real possibility that it came from the research facility.



Have you been following China, like, at all? They lie about everything, to improve their international profile. They've been doing it for longer than I've been alive. Floods are never as deadly as you might think. Uprisings are never put down with an iron fist. And diseases are never as virulent, nor deadly as you expect. 

Ignore? No, but jumping to the opposite conclusion isn't a rational position either. A virus, bacteria, fungus is presumed to be of natural origin, until it is known not to be. No, inquiry doesn't stop there, but huge leaps in logic aren't a responsible path.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> Have you been following China, like, at all? They lie about everything, to improve their international profile. They've been doing it for longer than I've been alive. Floods are never as deadly as you might think. Uprisings are never put down with an iron fist. And diseases are never as virulent, nor deadly as you expect.



Heh.  Why do you think I said, (well,  yes we do) in response to them lying about illness numbers. 


Ryujin said:


> Ignore? No, but jumping to the opposite conclusion isn't a rational position either. A virus, bacteria, fungus is presumed to be of natural origin, until it is known not to be. No, inquiry doesn't stop there, but huge leaps in logic aren't a responsible path.



I agree, which is why I said Stewart went too far.  This instance is not like all of the others for the reasons I laid out above.  In this unique case we can't presume one way or the other.


----------



## Eltab

Wow.  No wonder the US and Western response to this epidemic has been so messed up: "If I don't like the conclusions drawn from the facts you present, you must be Wrong!". As if any one person can set Truth or Falsehood.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Just to be 100% clear, based on what is known from news releases and reports from the scientific community:

1) it is possible (but not probable) that C19‘s initial “outbreak” is due to an accidental exposure associated with the Wuhan laboratory.  Accidents DO happen, and that lab has had research personnel sickened by unintended exposure to other viruses they were working with.

2) it is possible (but highly improbable) thar C19 as it was initially introduced was a manipulated/weaponized virus.  Multiple researchers have looked at C19, and declared it did not look like an unnatural coronavirus.


----------



## Ryujin

Maxperson said:


> Heh.  Why do you think I said, (well,  yes we do) in response to them lying about illness numbers.
> 
> I agree, which is why I said Stewart went too far.  This instance is not like all of the others for the reasons I laid out above.  In this unique case we can't presume one way or the other.



I disagree with your conclusions. There is, in fact, a default position. It's that an organism is naturally occurring, until there is conclusive proof to the contrary, as I stated previously.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> I disagree with your conclusions. There is, in fact, a default position. It's that an organism is naturally occurring, until there is conclusive proof to the contrary, as I stated previously.



Sure, there can be a default, but if the default ignores unique circumstances, then it shouldn't be the default.  Defaulting to natural with the reasonable doubt caused by the research facility and all the facts surrounding it, is a mistake.  If your default can cause you to miss or ignore the truth, it's wrong.


----------



## Zardnaar

The counter point is if you were going to weaponize a virus Covids a weak candidate. 

 Generally they get an existing whatever and try modify it to make it more resilient eg anthrax. 

 So I lean heavily into not man made or tampered with. There's just better (worse)  things to weaponize.


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> The counter point is if you were going to weaponize a virus Covids a weak candidate.
> 
> Generally they get an existing whatever and try modify it to make it more resilient eg anthrax.\



Weaponizing a virus is pretty dumb and I think China is aware of that.  Everyone knows that viruses mutate like mad, so even if you had the vaccine for what you created, it would eventually mutate and could easily wipe you as well.


Zardnaar said:


> So I lean heavily into not man made or tampered with. There's just better (worse)  things to weaponize.



You don't need to be weaponizing a virus in order to tamper with it.  I can easily envision a situation where they were trying to change it to make it harmless and had an accident.


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> Weaponizing a virus is pretty dumb and I think China is aware of that.  Everyone knows that viruses mutate like mad, so even if you had the vaccine for what you created, it would eventually mutate and could easily wipe you as well.
> 
> You don't need to be weaponizing a virus in order to tamper with it.  I can easily envision a situation where they were trying to change it to make it harmless and had an accident.




 Accident maybe probably not a bioweapon or deliberate.


----------



## Ryujin

Maxperson said:


> Sure, there can be a default, but if the default ignores unique circumstances, then it shouldn't be the default.  Defaulting to natural with the reasonable doubt caused by the research facility and all the facts surrounding it, is a mistake.  If your default can cause you to miss or ignore the truth, it's wrong.



Not if you employ the Scientific Method and questions aren't proof. The more wild the claim, the more need for _rigorous_ investigation.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> Not if you employ the Scientific Method and questions aren't proof. The more wild the claim, the more need for _rigorous_ investigation.



Science doesn't assume an answer the way a default does.  By all means, question and test both possibilities.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> Not if you employ the Scientific Method and questions aren't proof. The more wild the claim, the more need for _rigorous_ investigation.











						Lab leak theory, once 'political dynamite,' gains credibility in new study
					

The release of a scientific paper that was long in finding a publisher has given greater credibility to a theory that until recently was taboo: that the coronavirus could have emerged from a laboratory.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Maxperson said:


> Weaponizing a virus is pretty dumb and I think China is aware of that.  Everyone knows that viruses mutate like mad, so even if you had the vaccine for what you created, it would eventually mutate and could easily wipe you as well.



I have had to explain to people that you wouldn’t release an infectious bioweapon into the wild- even on a test run- until you had some kind of antidote/treatment/vaccine.  Not just because of mutation, but because  bioweapons cannot easily be targeted.  Once you have one person sick, it’s free to spread anywhere its combination of attributes will let it.  IOW, it’s too random to be safely deployed.

The response I got was something along the lines of the Chinese have too many people to care.

While it’s true, the current regime is cavalier about the value of human life, they’re not complete idiots.  They understand a weaponized contagion could affect people they don’t want dying.  (Like themselves.)


----------



## Thomas Shey

Yeah, for the most part, bioweapons are not only evil, but dumb.  Anything that spreads easily is also too damn hard to control.


----------



## Imaculata

Maxperson said:


> Lab leak theory, once 'political dynamite,' gains credibility in new study
> 
> 
> The release of a scientific paper that was long in finding a publisher has given greater credibility to a theory that until recently was taboo: that the coronavirus could have emerged from a laboratory.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com




First of all... Yahoo News? Really?

But second, they still don't provide any evidence to link the outbreak of Corona To a lab.


----------



## Maxperson

Imaculata said:


> First of all... Yahoo News? Really?



You think that changes anything?


Imaculata said:


> But second, they still don't provide any evidence to link the outbreak of Corona To a lab.



The science involved in that study shows that it is unlikely to have come from nature.  But hey, if you want to ignore science because Yahoo and because no direct link to lab, go for it.


----------



## Imaculata

Maxperson said:


> You think that changes anything?
> 
> The science involved in that study shows that it is unlikely to have come from nature.  But hey, if you want to ignore science because Yahoo and because no direct link to lab, go for it.



But that is not enough. You actually need to show evidence that the virus-from-a-lab hypothesis is true. That which is proposed without evidence, can be disregarded without evidence. Just because you've shown other roots of the virus to be unlikely, does not mean that you've provided evidence for what remains. This is also often referred to as the Sherlock Holmes fallacy.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Umbran said:


> Sorry, but you started with the assertion about lab origins first.  Onus of prof is on the one who makes the assertion. My onus is to meet or exceed your support, which at the moment is unsupported conspiracy theorizing.




I didn't start anything.
A comment was made as if the position was irrefutable and that Jon Stewart was far left field. My comments merely illustrated that a lab-designed virus was plausible given all the circumstantial evidence available.

I managed to find these articles relating to the Australian study of 2020 I was referring to








						Australian researchers see virus design manipulation
					

A forthcoming Australian scientific study concludes that the coronavirus causing the global pandemic contains unique properties suggesting it was manipulated in a Chinese laboratory and was not the result of a natural occurrence.




					www.washingtontimes.com
				











						Coronavirus may have been a ‘cell-culture experiment’ gone wrong
					

EXCLUSIVE: The coronavirus that has become a world-wide pandemic may have been created in “cell-culture experiment” in a laboratory, according to prominent scientists who have conducted ground-breaking research into the origins of the virus.   Flinders University Professor Nikolai Petrovsky’s...




					www.skynews.com.au
				




I distinctly remember there were 2 others I saw last year - I cannot recall if they were British, French or Finnish that came to similar conclusions. Sadly I do not have the time to battle against google's algorithms to find them.


----------



## Zardnaar

AnotherGuy said:


> I didn't start anything.
> A comment was made as if the position was irrefutable and that Jon Stewart was far left field. My comments merely illustrated that a lab-designed virus was plausible given all the circumstantial evidence available.
> 
> I managed to find this article relating to the Australian study of 2020
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Australian researchers see virus design manipulation
> 
> 
> A forthcoming Australian scientific study concludes that the coronavirus causing the global pandemic contains unique properties suggesting it was manipulated in a Chinese laboratory and was not the result of a natural occurrence.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.washingtontimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I distinctly remember there were 2 others I saw last year - I cannot recall if they were British, French or Finish that came to similar conclusions.




 Still doesn't prove anything though. 

  We just don't know so can't rule out or confirm anything and Best China's government is obscuring everything for that reason.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Zardnaar said:


> Still doesn't prove anything though.
> 
> We just don't know so can't rule out or confirm anything and Best China's government is obscuring everything for that reason.



I didn't say it proves anything - I'm merely stating that studies (scientific data) exist which reflect the opposite of a naturally occurring virus.


----------



## Zardnaar

AnotherGuy said:


> I didn't say it proves anything - I'm merely stating that studies (scientific data) exist which reflect the opposite of a naturally occurring virus.




 Glorified speculation. 

 I'm not gonna care if someone says its possible as we can't rule it out. 

 But there's lots of plausible scenarios we can't rule out not helped by Best China government.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Zardnaar said:


> Glorified speculation.
> 
> I'm not gonna care if someone says its possible as we can't rule it out.
> 
> But there's lots of plausible scenarios we can't rule out not helped by Best China government.




Well that's nice of you Zardnaar dismissing a study by a Professor of Medicine, along with decades long titles, accomplishments and accolades under his belt including a history of developing vaccines, as _glorified speculation. _

Some of you below may find the below article interesting given the rather dismissive views we have clearly seen growing in the last year and a half.
_








						Beijing's useful idiots - UnHerd
					

Science journals have encouraged and enforced a false Covid narrative




					unherd.com
				



_
He also has an interesting and honest conversation on Discernable. I'm not familiar with the interviewer whom I'm speculating is an Australian podcaster. I'm only 20 minutes in so far.


----------



## Zardnaar

AnotherGuy said:


> Well that's nice of you Zardnaar dismissing a study by a Professor of Medicine, along with decades long titles, accomplishments and accolades under his belt including a history of developing vaccines, to _glorified speculation. _




 Did he confirm it?  No. 

 There's other professionals with different opinions. 

 I'm not dismissing the possibility but there's multiple possibilities unless something has changed recently. 

  Has it been proved? No. Possible yes.

 I'm well aware of Beijings useful idiots but it's beyond the topic and against the rules.


----------



## Ryujin

Maxperson said:


> Science doesn't assume an answer the way a default does.  By all means, question and test both possibilities.



Actually yes, it does. When you have an existing and well tested theory that explains something it then becomes the default, until something else can better explain it.


----------



## Maxperson

Imaculata said:


> But that is not enough. You actually need to show evidence that the virus-from-a-lab hypothesis is true. That which is proposed without evidence, can be disregarded without evidence. Just because you've shown other roots of the virus to be unlikely, does not mean that you've provided evidence for what remains. This is also often referred to as the Sherlock Holmes fallacy.



Okay. First, you have scientific evidence that it's unlikely to be natural. Second, you at ground zero you have a coronavirus research facility. Third, circumstantial evidence is in fact evidence, so all of those things I mentioned before, including it being a coronavirus research facility is evidence.  Just not direct evidence.  Fourth, just because you have other extremely longshot possibilities, like another country planting the virus at that location, doesn't mean that it's reasonable to doubt that it came from the Wuhan facility.

Assuming the science in that study is accurate, do you have any other reasonable explanation other than the research facility to explain how the virus started there?


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> Actually yes, it does. When you have an existing and well tested theory that explains something it then becomes the default, until something else can better explain it.



No.  If it becomes the assumed answer, nothing else will ever better explain it.  You're always going to assume that you are already correct. Only by not assuming the answer do you continue to question the theory when new circumstances come up..............................like all the circumstantial evidence surrounding the Wuhan research facility.  Since we have all this new evidence, the theory needs to be questioned for this pandemic to see if there is a better explanation.


----------



## Ryujin

Maxperson said:


> No.  If it becomes the assumed answer, nothing else will ever better explain it.  You're always going to assume that you are already correct. Only by not assuming the answer do you continue to question the theory when new circumstances come up..............................like all the circumstantial evidence surrounding the Wuhan research facility.  Since we have all this new evidence, the theory needs to be questioned for this pandemic to see if there is a better explanation.



If that was the case we would still assume that 'germs' were spontaneously generated in dirt.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> If that was the case we would still assume that 'germs' were spontaneously generated in dirt.



It's only because of that being the case that we don't.  Otherwise dirt would be the default for germ generation.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> No.  If it becomes the assumed answer, nothing else will ever better explain it.  You're always going to assume that you are already correct. Only by not assuming the answer do you continue to question the theory when new circumstances come up




Yeah, but it is okay (in fact, generally necessary) to do that until you have evidence or reason to do otherwise. 

I mean, right now, there's this assumption that Covid-19 came from the wild.  Some folks question that.  Maybe they'll find evidence that it was from a lab, and _that_ will become the assumption.  By your logic we must spend effort questioning that, because "irrefutable proof" does not exist in the scientific world.  Lather, rinse, repeat, and the investigation into where it came from _never ends_, because whatever the solution of the moment is assumed must be questioned.  

Thus, this argument is not practical - it is an endless, unproductive loop.  We cannot spend all our time questioning each and every thing we already think we know.  At some point, we have to move on, and wait for a reason or evidence to question.



Maxperson said:


> Since we have all this new evidence, the theory needs to be questioned for this pandemic to see if there is a better explanation.




The question of where it come from is primarily a_ quest for blame_.  Assigning blame will not lead to better health outcomes for the populace at this point.  Assigning blame will not correct economic dislocations that have occurred - indeed, the search for blame can easily worsen economic impacts if it increases international tensions.

It took _years_ after the original SARS crisis before they found the likely source of the virus.  If we ever do find the source of SARS-COV-2, we should expect it to take similar amounts of time, no matter if it were natural or engineered.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> Yeah, but it is okay (in fact, generally necessary) to do that until you have evidence or reason to do otherwise.
> 
> I mean, right now, there's this assumption that Covid-19 came from the wild.  Some folks question that.  Maybe they'll find evidence that it was from a lab, and _that_ will become the assumption.  By your logic we must spend effort questioning that, because "irrefutable proof" does not exist in the scientific world.  Lather, rinse, repeat, and the investigation into where it came from _never ends_, because whatever the solution of the moment is assumed must be questioned.
> 
> Thus, this argument is not practical - it is an endless, unproductive loop.  We cannot spend all our time questioning each and every thing we already think we know.  At some point, we have to move on, and wait for a reason or evidence to question.



I'm not suggesting we question everything we think we already know.  In THIS circumstance, there is significant circumstantial evidence that casts enough doubt on the natural origin theory to challenge it and require that we spend the effort to look at the research facility with much more scrutiny and to look for evidence of it being from the wild.

We can't just assume that it's from the wild.


Umbran said:


> The question of where it come from is primarily a_ quest for blame_.  Assigning blame will not lead to better health outcomes for the populace at this point.  Assigning blame will not correct economic dislocations that have occurred - indeed, the search for blame can easily worsen economic impacts if it increases international tensions.



I disagree, at least in part.  I'm sure there are many who want to find blame.  Others just want to know where and how it originated.  While it may increase international tensions if it is proven to be from the research facility, that's not reason enough to ignore the possibility that it came from there.


Umbran said:


> It took _years_ after the original SARS crisis before they found the likely source of the virus.  If we ever do find the source of SARS-COV-2, we should expect it to take similar amounts of time, no matter if it were natural or engineered.



I agree.  I'm just saying that 1) it's not some crackpot conspiracy theory to think that the research facility could have been responsible, and 2) That we should be looking hard at both nature and the facility as possible sources.


----------



## Ryujin

Maxperson said:


> It's only because of that being the case that we don't.  Otherwise dirt would be the default for germ generation.



Then why would natural production be the default, ongoing, if it was not? I'm sorry, but your argument holds no water.


----------



## Imaculata

Maxperson said:


> Assuming the science in that study is accurate, do you have any other reasonable explanation other than the research facility to explain how the virus started there?




That is literally the Sherlock Holmes fallacy.


----------



## J.Quondam

The most vexing thing about this particular case is that the Chinese government will not be forthcoming in any investigations into covid's origins. So no matter what actual scientists determine, that government's intransigence _alone_ will leave the door open to any supposed "reasonable doubt" on the issue. And so it will never be "sufficiently" resolved for conspiracy theorists speculationists.

Not that it _ever_ is for those predisposed to such thinking, of course.


----------



## Maxperson

Imaculata said:


> That is literally the Sherlock Holmes fallacy.



And that's the Fallacy Fallacy.  So what.  Can you answer the question?

Edit.  The irony here is that you are the one committing the Holmesian Fallacy, not me.  The Holmesian Fallacy says, "When some explanation is believed to be true on the basis that alternate explanations are impossible, yet not all alternate explanations have been ruled out."  

I'm saying that there is circumstantial evidence that shows that we should look at the research facility closer, not that it's true that it came from the research facility.  I'm literally NOT ruling out anything or declaring either of them impossible. You on the other hand are declaring the possibility of the research facility being the origin a conspiracy theory(ruling it out as impossible) and saying that the natural theory is true.


----------



## Zardnaar

I don't think anyone's ruling out that the virus escaped from a lab or was man made. 

 But there's no definitive proof either.  On any of the three main ideas (natural, manmade, natural but lab leak).

 Natural is the leading contender atm.


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> I don't think anyone's ruling out that the virus escaped from a lab or was man made.
> 
> But there's no definitive proof either.  On any of the three main ideas (natural, manmade, natural but lab leak).
> 
> Natural is the leading contender atm.



Maybe.  If that study I linked is true, then natural would be behind lab leak.  Of course studies are often flawed and the research would need to be verified/duplicated before I would trust it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> Maybe.  If that study I linked is true, then natural would be behind lab leak.  Of course studies are often flawed and the research would need to be verified/duplicated before I would trust it.




 There's multiple studies though. Is it plausible yes but beyond that.


----------



## Eltab

A Court will look at the following kinds of evidence:
Eyewitness 
Documentary 
Corroborating - third party sources that buttress individual facts from the above
Scientific - third party work that independently draws the same conclusions as the eyewitnesses and documents
Rebuttal - on what basis can we claim "that's not right"?
Profile - this individual has the attributes of the person who could do it
Fingerprint - not always literal, this person and only this person did it
Body / Missing Body - items that must exist for the charge to be true and have been (or have not been) produced
Circumstantial - additional supporting facts

The evidence in a case leads to an objective truth: the answer to the question "What happened? ".

P.S.  Of note in the context of an Internet forum, "Shoot the messenger" is not a form of evidence.


----------



## Umbran

AnotherGuy said:


> I didn't say it proves anything - I'm merely stating that studies (scientific data) exist which reflect the opposite of a naturally occurring virus.




So, let us look at this, with critical thinking engaged:

_"Nikolai Petrovsky, the lead researcher, said his team suspects human manipulation in Wuhan because of the unmatched ability of the virus’ protruding spike to infect human cells."_

So, by description the study says, "this virus is too good at infecting humans to be natural."  I've perused the preprint on arXiv, and that's about the depth of the argument.   The abstract of the paper, in which you are supposed to give the basic conclusions, doesn't say, "so this is probably manmade".  It says, in effect, "this virus is surprisingly well-adapted to humans."  No statement of artificial origin even appears in the abstract!

The conclusion of the paper is basically, "We don't know how this happened" and so they _posit_ that it may have been done in the laboratory.  The paper _does not actually present any specific evidence_ that it was made in a lab - they merely speculate that it is a possibility that should be looked into.

So, I'm sorry, but for purposes of this discussion, the paper is merely an opinion.


----------



## Imaculata

Maxperson said:


> And that's the Fallacy Fallacy.  So what.  Can you answer the question?
> 
> Edit.  The irony here is that you are the one committing the Holmesian Fallacy, not me.  The Holmesian Fallacy says, "When some explanation is believed to be true on the basis that alternate explanations are impossible, yet not all alternate explanations have been ruled out."




No, I quoted you. You said, do you have any other explanation? That's the Sherlock Holmes fallacy.

"When you have eliminated all which is impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

A famous quote, and also a famous error in thinking. The idea that 'it must be this thing', because I've ruled out every other thing I could think of.

Imagine a murder at a mansion, where everyone but the butler has an alibi and could not have commited the murder. Does that mean the butler did it? No, of course not. You still need actual evidence to prove that he did it, plus a motive and a murder weapon. Plus more importantly, you haven't ruled out the unknown. It could have been the gardener, who wasn't on the list of suspects. It could even have been the dog, however improbable.

The case for the lab origin is worse than that though. You have no evidence, just conjecture, and you haven't ruled out any of the other possible causes, including the most likely one: natural. Nor have you ruled out unknown causes. You have at best a weak motive. Yes, I don't trust the Chinese government either. They certainly would be willing to do something like this and lie about it. But you need a lot more than that to make it a more likely answer than the natural origin explanation. Evidence, for a start.

Pointing at 'a' Corona lab and saying it was somewhere in the same gigantic province as the Covid 19 outbreak, is not evidence.


----------



## Maxperson

Imaculata said:


> No, I quoted you. You said, do you have any other explanation? That's the Sherlock Holmes fallacy.



No it isn't.  I'm asking for possibilities, not truths.  YOU are the only one using that fallacy here.


Imaculata said:


> "When you have eliminated all which is impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."



Yep!  I've eliminated nothing.   You on the other hand have eliminated(incorrectly) the research facility by labeling it a conspiracy theory.


Imaculata said:


> The case for the lab origin is worse than that though. You have no evidence, just conjecture, and you haven't ruled out any of the other possible causes, including the most likely one: natural. Nor have you ruled out unknown causes. You have at best a weak motive. Yes, I don't trust the Chinese government either. They certainly would be willing to do something like this and lie about it. But you need a lot more than that to make it a more likely answer than the natural origin explanation. Evidence, for a start.



Once again, there is in fact evidence.  Circumstantial evidence is evidence.


----------



## CleverNickName

Maxperson said:


> Once again, there is in fact evidence.  Circumstantial evidence is evidence.


----------



## Imaculata

Maxperson said:


> Yep!  I've eliminated nothing.   You on the other hand have eliminated(incorrectly) the research facility by labeling it a conspiracy theory.



I have dismissed it until there is actual evidence supporting it. Until that time, there is no reason to give it any thought.

Do you have actual evidence?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Clarification: circumstantial evidence IS evidence.  There are murder convictions that have been won entirely on the basis of circumstantial evidence.  But you need a LOT of it to do so.

The circumstantial evidence for C19 being bioengineered in the Wuhan lab is so poor as to be virtually nonexistent.

The circumstantial evidence for C19 being natural but accidentally released from the Wuhan lab is stronger, given the lab’s actual track record with other viruses.  But it’s still pretty weak overall, given that none of the other lab accidents in Wuhan* resulted in the exposures of more than a handful of people- an indication that they generally take effective action when an accidental exposure occurs.  It would be extremely unusual for an exposure to be dealt with so poorly that it resulted in a global pandemic.

And so, as they say, an extraordinary claim requires extraordinary proof.  So far, that’s lacking.






* this lab has prior experience handling SARS, MERS, and other coronaviruses, so it isn’t like COVID would be completely alien to them.  They knew very well what they were dealing with.


----------



## Ryujin

Maxperson said:


> No it isn't.  I'm asking for possibilities, not truths.  YOU are the only one using that fallacy here.
> 
> Yep!  I've eliminated nothing.   You on the other hand have eliminated(incorrectly) the research facility by labeling it a conspiracy theory.
> 
> Once again, there is in fact evidence.  Circumstantial evidence is evidence.



Circumstantial evidence is what makes my clients think that I killed their network connection. Because I walked past the network riser. In and of itself, it's pretty meaningless.


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Clarification: circumstantial evidence IS evidence.  There are murder convictions that have been won entirely on the basis of circumstantial evidence.  But you need a LOT of it to do so.
> 
> The circumstantial evidence for C19 being bioengineered in the Wuhan lab is so poor as to be virtually nonexistent.
> 
> The circumstantial evidence for C19 being natural but accidentally released from the Wuhan lab is stronger, given the lab’s actual track record with other viruses.  But it’s still pretty weak overall, given that none of the other lab accidents in Wuhan* resulted in the exposures of more than a handful of people- an indication that they generally take effective action when an accidental exposure occurs.  It would be extremely unusual for an exposure to be dealt with so poorly that it resulted in a global pandemic.



Right.  I'm not arguing that it came from the research facility.  I'm arguing that right now there's enough circumstantial evidence that it warrants a good investigation into the facility, not dismissal like @Imaculata is doing. Not that either one of us would be doing the investigating, but it's certainly not a conspiracy theory to recognize the very valid possibility that it came from the lab.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> Circumstantial evidence is what makes my clients think that I killed their network connection. Because I walked past the network riser. In and of itself, it's pretty meaningless.



See the post by Dannyalcatraz. It was a good one.  People get convicted of everything up to and including murder based on nothing but circumstantial evidence.


----------



## Ryujin

Maxperson said:


> See the post by Dannyalcatraz. It was a good one.  People get convicted of everything up to and including murder based on nothing but circumstantial evidence.



Sure they do. When it's *overwhelming*.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> Sure they do. When it's *overwhelming*.



And before that, they investigate based on less.  That's how they find the rest................or not if it doesn't exist, but they don't know until they do the in depth investigation.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> And before that, they investigate based on less.  That's how they find the rest................or not if it doesn't exist, but they don't know until they do the in depth investigation.




So... what's the goal of this investigation?   The scientific relevance is, in the short to medium term, minimal.  It will not actually lead us to better understanding of SARS-COV-2.  It will not generate better outcomes for patients.  It will not change the socio-economic situation in the world caused by the impact of the pandemic on our not-terribly-resilient systems.

I restate - this investigation looks like a blame game.  For that, we need to consider the costs vs the benefits. If we find it came from the lab, the costs will include increased violence against out own citizens of Asian descent, and increased tension between China and the US.  The benefit needs to be worth beatings, murders, and increase of consumer costs for goods pretty much across the board.

Better be a really good benefit.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> So... what's the goal of this investigation?   The scientific relevance is, in the short to medium term, minimal.  It will not actually lead us to better understanding of SARS-COV-2.  It will not generate better outcomes for patients.  It will not change the socio-economic situation in the world caused by the impact of the pandemic on our not-terribly-resilient systems.
> 
> I restate - this investigation looks like a blame game.  For that, we need to consider the costs vs the benefits. If we find it came from the lab, the costs will include increased violence against out own citizens of Asian descent, and increased tension between China and the US.  The benefit needs to be worth beatings, murders, and increase of consumer costs for goods pretty much across the board.
> 
> Better be a really good benefit.



Indeed. As I read your first paragraph I was framing a reply that read like the second paragraph, which you had obviously made redundant


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> Better be a really good benefit.




I can't imagine what that benefit could be. 

Meanwhile, efforts could be better spent figuring out how to prevent this sort of thing from happening again. One thing that would help is _better communication_ (which I would argue pointing fingers works directly against that goal).


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> I can't imagine what that benefit could be.
> 
> Meanwhile, efforts could be better spent figuring out how to prevent this sort of thing from happening again. One thing that would help is _better communication_ (which I would argue pointing fingers works directly against that goal).




Yeah.  Greater cooperation, communication, and transparency in the world medical community focused on infectious disease would help no matter the source of covid-19, so I'd expect it to be a pretty good target.


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> I can't imagine what that benefit could be.
> 
> Meanwhile, efforts could be better spent figuring out how to prevent this sort of thing from happening again. One thing that would help is _better communication_ (which I would argue pointing fingers works directly against that goal).



At this point any perceived 'benefit' would seem to be negative. A couple of days ago I was watching a pretty well known Canadian magazine/investigative journalism show called "W5" (think "60 Minutes", in US terms, but tends to concentrate on a single issue for the entire programme). They were specifically discussing incidents of anti-Asian racism, in Canada, related to Covid-19. Vancouver, a city not really known for racist incidents and with a high Asian population, is statistically 'leading' Canada in racist incidents against Asians. Vancouver is very "Left Coast", so think in terms of a Canadian Seattle. Trying to place blame only serves to heighten this idiotic racism.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> At this point any perceived 'benefit' would seem to be negative. A couple of days ago I was watching a pretty well known Canadian magazine/investigative journalism show called "W5" (think "60 Minutes", in US terms, but tends to concentrate on a single issue for the entire programme). They were specifically discussing incidents of anti-Asian racism, in Canada, related to Covid-19. Vancouver, a city not really known for racist incidents and with a high Asian population, is statistically 'leading' Canada in racist incidents against Asians. Vancouver is very "Left Coast", so think in terms of a Canadian Seattle. Trying to place blame only serves to heighten this idiotic racism.



Better to bury the truth and capitulate to the racists, than to seek the truth and fight the racism I suppose.  For some I suppose it's all about blame.  For others it's about seeking the truth.  Hell, if I wanted to find ways to blame China, there's a lot going on worth blame.  Rights violations, concentration camps, genocide...  I don't need a virus to lay blame on China if that's what I want to do.


----------



## Imaculata

Maxperson said:


> See the post by Dannyalcatraz. It was a good one.  People get convicted of everything up to and including murder based on nothing but circumstantial evidence.




Sometimes wrongfully, when the circumstantial evidence is weak... which it is for the lab hypothesis.


----------



## Maxperson

Imaculata said:


> Sometimes wrongfully, when the circumstantial evidence is weak... which it is for the lab hypothesis.



Okay, but so what.  Nobody here is suggesting we convict the lab on this evidence.


----------



## Ryujin

Maxperson said:


> Better to bury the truth and capitulate to the racists, than to seek the truth and fight the racism I suppose.  For some I suppose it's all about blame.  For others it's about seeking the truth.  Hell, if I wanted to find ways to blame China, there's a lot going on worth blame.  Rights violations, concentration camps, genocide...  I don't need a virus to lay blame on China if that's what I want to do.



You can seek the truth, while simultaneously not being inflammatory about it. The way that the issue is being dealt with, currently, smacks of witch hunt to me.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> You can seek the truth, while simultaneously not being inflammatory about it. The way that the issue is being dealt with, currently, smacks of witch hunt to me.



I agree.  We should be seeking the truth in ways that aren't inflammatory. Unfortunately, politics is always involved at that level.


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> Better to bury the truth and capitulate to the racists, than to seek the truth and fight the racism I suppose.  For some I suppose it's all about blame.  For others it's about seeking the truth.  Hell, if I wanted to find ways to blame China, there's a lot going on worth blame.  Rights violations, concentration camps, genocide...  I don't need a virus to lay blame on China if that's what I want to do.




 Uness they deliberately released a bioweapon (which I very highly doubt) I don't care to much on Covids origins atm.

And if you really have a beef with China (more specifically the CCP) there's plenty of ammo. That's beyond the scope of these forums though.

 Social medias not really the place to have that conversation though.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Umbran said:


> So, let us look at this, with critical thinking engaged:
> 
> _"Nikolai Petrovsky, the lead researcher, said his team suspects human manipulation in Wuhan because of the unmatched ability of the virus’ protruding spike to infect human cells."_
> 
> So, by description the study says, "this virus is too good at infecting humans to be natural."  I've perused the preprint on arXiv, and that's about the depth of the argument.   The abstract of the paper, in which you are supposed to give the basic conclusions, doesn't say, "so this is probably manmade".  It says, in effect, "this virus is surprisingly well-adapted to humans."  No statement of artificial origin even appears in the abstract!
> 
> The conclusion of the paper is basically, "We don't know how this happened" and so they _posit_ that it may have been done in the laboratory.  The paper _does not actually present any specific evidence_ that it was made in a lab - they merely speculate that it is a possibility that should be looked into.
> 
> So, I'm sorry, but for purposes of this discussion, the paper is merely an opinion.




I think this is very much a simplistic view of the study given all the trouble they went to by using a high-performance computer aimed to help identify any intermediate animal vector that may have played a role in transmitting a bat virus to humans with the results showing that SARS-CoV-2 bound to ACE2 on human cells more tightly than any of the 12 tested animal species, including bats and pangolins and that if one of the animal species tested was the origin, it would normally be expected to show the highest binding to the virus.

It is also peculiar that it took so long to have such a _harmless study_ published for peer-review. Only recently when you had the flip flopping of key characters and organisations were studies like this seeing the light.

Then you have Dr Ashley informing congressman Jim Jordon that the Chinese had quite publicly said in their 2011 declaration of biological weapons that they were working on synthetic biology and gain of function using the serial passage of evolutionary or convolutional technology approaches.

For some this and the other circumstantial evidence, financial interests of various parties, along with the behaviour of the media, makes the lab-leak a much stronger hypothesis than the zoonosis. I guess for Jon Stewart too.


----------



## Eltab

When eyewitnesses turn up dead of not-natural causes;
When documents are destroyed, or are not found in their assigned depository, or access to the depository is denied;
That too is circumstantial evidence.   

This happens with Mafia cases and gang cases.  It can also happen with official-sponsored cover ups.


----------



## Umbran

AnotherGuy said:


> I think this is very much a simplistic view of the study given all the trouble they went to




So, the trouble they went through is fine science.  But, I'm sorry, it _ISN'T ABOUT_ the lab-origin hypothesis.  

I will repeat - there is _NO DATA_ in there that directly speaks to lab origin.  At all.  Anyone who told you it was misrepresented the work.



AnotherGuy said:


> It is also peculiar that it took so long to have such a _harmless study_ published for peer-review. Only recently when you had the flip flopping of key characters and organisations were studies like this seeing the light.




Oh, for cryin' out loud.  Your evidence is... it took a long time?  Really?  As if you know how long a study of this should take to come to fruition, when the work is being done in the middle of a pandemic?  The virology people have been _kinda busy_, you know.

When you start getting into characterizing it as "harmless" - so, let me guess... "THEY didn't want you to see this study at all!"  Did I get that right?  With all-caps on THEY?  

You can keep your conspiracy theories.  Thoroughly unconvincing.  Come back with actual science, or some real evidence, not a bunch of things you can put on a corkboard and run yarn between to make it look like it hangs together.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> This happens with Mafia cases and gang cases.  It can also happen with official-sponsored cover ups.




*Mod Note:*
Okay - this "official-sponsored coverup" conspiracy theorizing is over the line.

This thread has been founded on getting actual information to people.  This is not actual information.  This is fearmongering.  We won't have this any more than we will have anti-vax crud.  

Next person who brings conspiracy theory nonsense in here will be banned from the thread.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hmmn. 









						How to spot Covid-19 misinformation
					

Purveyors are making big bucks




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## GreyLord

Back to RPGs....

Well, we got together for the 4th this weekend and created characters and started an adventure for the first time in a long time this weekend.  Will travel and meet up at my place this following week to continue our marathon of playing as a group.  

Hopefully we can get enough playtime together before the Delta variant takes a strong hold in the nation and forces a possibility of us all living our rpg lives online once more.


----------



## Imaculata

We're all waiting for our 2nd shot, and until we all have it, we play online via Roll20. But on the up side, I'll soon be playing in a full 5e campaign for the first time. Lets see what this 3.5 player has been missing out on.


----------



## AnotherGuy

@Umbran, as a person in the field of science, what are your thoughts on this 9 minute clip between the Weinsteins and Bill Maher, specifically on their understanding about the virus. I'm assuming that you are familiar with the Weinsteins.


----------



## Umbran

AnotherGuy said:


> @Umbran, as a person in the field of science, what are your thoughts on this 9 minute clip between the Weinsteins and Bill Maher, specifically on their understanding about the virus. I'm assuming that you are familiar with the Weinsteins.




Bill Maher is not what I'd call a solid journalist - his lead in, "It'd almost be conspiracy thinking to say it didn't start in the lab," is playing right into cognitive biases.

I am familiar with the scientists.  That they invoke "that's not how science works," given their stance on Ivermectin is _laughable_.  Ivermectin is a drug used for killing parasites - commonly heartworms in dogs and intestinal worms in cattle.  They were supporting use of Ivermectin against covid-19 based on _no evidence_.  Over 16 studies have been done on Ivermectin's use on this disease, none of which show significant signs of better patient outcomes.

Oh, the "we might expect a lab virus to do things wild viruses might not do..." That is such bullpucky.  Evolution is what it is, the origin of the beast doesn't matter once it is in the wild, the forces on it are the same at that point.

The process they are talking about with viruses becoming less potent over time is a real one, but only on _evolutionary timescales_, decades, centuries, and millennia, not over the course of a single year.  Over the short term, you see a "drunkard's walk" through all sorts of possibilities, some of which may well be worse.

And, overall, we see no _data_ presented.  We have two people asserting things without support, which comes off as "appeal to authority" to me, but then they allow key points to be mis-represented in their presentation.  I am not convinced.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

While Delta is the current big bad bully, Lambda is making a name for itself, too.








						There’s yet another COVID strain spreading. Here’s what you should know about the Lambda variant
					

The World Health Organization (WHO) has added the COVID Lambda variant to its list of coronavirus variants of interest, meaning it could be more contagious.




					fortune.com


----------



## Imaculata

Now that the Netherlands has lifted the mask requirements, instantly I am the only person at my local supermarket wearing one. It seems most people in general only wear a mask because they have to, and not because it will protect themselves or others.

When this whole thing began, long before masks were mandated, I was the first person in my neighborhood to wear one. People looked at me funny, like I was some kind of weirdo. As soon as the requirement dropped (a few weeks ago), gone were the masks, and the social distancing, and the cleaning of hands and shopping carts.

But just because the requirements have been lifted, does not mean the risk is gone. The Delta variant has made its way to the Netherlands, and has already infected countless people. And a lot of adults in the Netherlands have not had their second shot yet, if they are vaccinated at all. So they are at best about 20% protected. Do people care so little about their own health or that of others?

But again it seems I am the odd one out. Yesterday I saw only one woman at the supermarket also wearing a mask. Everyone else was walking around maskless, brushing up against each other, and talking up close. It was an ff'ing nightmare. And again they look at me like I'm the weirdo for wearing my mask, disinfecting my cart (and scrubbing the handles with a paper towel), and wearing plastic gloves. If you care about your own health, why would you not take every precaution possible until you're at least fully vaccinated?


----------



## Mirtek

It's all a matter of risk perception. Even with Delta the risk for healthy adult below a certain age is not that high.

So it comes down to how high you rate the risk that you may not be as healthy as you think you are (and an infection will be bad due to a hidden factor you were not aware that you already suffered it all along) and the general risk of being one of the few unlucky that are hit hard despite really being healthy. 

At work we had the mask requirement accidentally lifted for a day due to an unfortunately worded mail from risk council. Immediately 95% of us went maskless. Next day they send a ne message fixing their announcement


And yeah, each to their own, but gloves,  scrubbing and disinfecting are overkill. Spread by smear infection is all but meaningless for Covid

Especially since you are not actually disinfecting anything. Look at the instructions on the stuff. Just rubbing it with a towel wetted with it or spraying it on a surfacing and than rubbing it of won't do anything. It requires a few minutes to do it's work, otherwise you might just as well use water.


----------



## Mirtek

BTW in German (and AFAIK all of EU) it's now the official recommendation to Mix vaccines. 

So if you got Astra at your first shot, you will get Moderna or Pfizer for your second


----------



## CapnZapp

Mirtek said:


> It's all a matter of risk perception. Even with Delta the risk for healthy adult below a certain age is not that high.



I assume you're talking about vaccinated young(ish) adults. If so, then yes - the vaccine reduces the risks to background levels (i e. as long as you take your yearly covid shot for the foreseeable future, you ought not to worry)

Among unvaccinated COVID-19 remains a plague that poses a _considerable_ risk - not just of death and hospitalization, but of permanent reduced life quality due to complications that simply fly under the radar ("long-term covid").

Claiming anything less is just irresponsible.


----------



## Mirtek

CapnZapp said:


> I assume you're talking about vaccinated young(ish) adults. If so, then yes - the vaccine reduces the risks to background levels (i e. as long as you take your yearly covid shot for the foreseeable future, you ought not to worry)
> 
> Among unvaccinated COVID-19 remains a plague that poses a _considerable_ risk - not just of death and hospitalization, but of permanent reduced life quality due to complications that simply fly under the radar ("long-term covid").
> 
> Claiming anything less is just irresponsible.



That depends entirely on where you draw the line for "considerable".

Long/Post Covid has no clear definition and reported high rates (up to 20%) are only with those definitions that include a broad range of symptons that are not very severe and/or not that long.

There are definitions that arrive at high rates by including having minor symptons after 5 weeks which mostly vanish after 8-10 weeks. E.g if your sense of taste had not fully recovered after 6 weeks, but is fully fine since 9 weeks after, you're included in some long covid Definitions.

The more severe and more permanent cases (up to being wrecked for life) exist too, but fortunately those are much more rare.


----------



## Horwath

Imaculata said:


> Do people care so little about their own health or that of others?



Yes they do, but I would say that people just simply had it with this s#$t.

You get numb to danger and bad news after certain amount and that is it.
Especially if nothing happens to you and still media and politician talk about Covid 24/7.

I am not saying that there in no danger. There is. Just saying that people ignore Covid rules and recommendations because they had enough of everything.

I had positive antigen test result several months ago. Without any symptoms, yet I got both Moderna shot just to be on the safe side. And to not infect any members of my family.

Also, I was in Denmark for Croatia-Spain Euro2020 match last week, and no one wear masks there. Anywhere. And the stadium was packed.
I only had to have mask on the flight in and out of Copenhagen.


----------



## Mirtek

Also for the majority of people who are yet wearing masks it's clear that they do it only as a chore they must do rather than something they want to do simply by watching how they don/doff them and handle them inbetween.

Graping them full frontal with the full hand  and crumpling them into a pocket just like this. Either they do not understand how masks work or they simply only wear masks because they have to, and only because they have to 

Then you have some people that are outright hilarious. E.g. during the last small heatwave i Was standing in line for ice cream. One person in the whole line actually wore those rubber OP glooves.

When she got her cone, and was passing by the still waiting queue the melting ice cream started to drip on her gloove.

Any she just licked it off her glooved hand! Lady WTF are you taking the trouble to wear these things if you lick them?!


----------



## Umbran

Mirtek said:


> Graping them full frontal with the full hand  and crumpling them into a pocket just like this. Either they do not understand how masks work or they simply only wear masks because they have to, and only because they have to




If getting covid via fomid is "all but meaningless" then how they handle the mask is irrelevant.


----------



## Mirtek

Umbran said:


> If getting covid via fomid is "all but meaningless" then how they handle the mask is irrelevant.



It is. But it shows that most people only follow rules because those are the rules and happily leave the masks off as soon it's no longer mandatory.

Do you know any example of a significant large part of people wearing masks somwhere it's not required? Everywhere in  europe where it's no longer required the masks fly off in the blink of an eye. All pandemic the issue has even been with enforcing masks rather than the reverse.

Those crumbled masks being fished out of the trouser pocket also have all their sides rubbed against each other and whatever got stopped on their outside is also on their inside and breathed in next time.  Mostly the common viruses and molds


----------



## Umbran

Mirtek said:


> Do you know any example of a significant large part of people wearing masks somwhere it's not required?




Yeah.  My local grocery stores.  Whole Foods more than Stop and Shop, but in either one here, I will often see a majority of folks wearing masks, even when it is no longer required.


----------



## CleverNickName

Umbran said:


> Yeah.  My local grocery stores.  Whole Foods more than Stop and Shop, but in either one here, I will often see a majority of folks wearing masks, even when it is no longer required.



Same here in Portland.  The mask requirements have been lifted, but people still wear them on public transit, in grocery stores, and in restaurants (myself included.)  But we're all a bunch of granola-eating tree hugging lefties anyway.  According to my family back in the South, we're not "real Americans" up here.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

CleverNickName said:


> Same here in Portland.  The mask requirements have been lifted, but people still wear them on public transit, in grocery stores, and in restaurants (myself included.)  But we're all a bunch of granola-eating tree hugging lefties anyway.  According to my family back in the South, we're not "real Americans" up here.



North of you in Canada (Vancouver) it's pretty much the same. Only a very small per cent are quick to give up their masks in indoor public places, and those tend to be quite vocal, unpopular, and clearly brainwashed by conspiracy media. _Most_ people (IMO without a formal poll), even if they themselves aren't fond of masks (or particularly worried about Covid) will wear their masks to keep others comfortable and happy.


----------



## Maxperson

Mirtek said:


> Also for the majority of people who are yet wearing masks it's clear that they do it only as a chore they must do rather than something they want to do simply by watching how they don/doff them and handle them inbetween.
> 
> Graping them full frontal with the full hand  and crumpling them into a pocket just like this. Either they do not understand how masks work or they simply only wear masks because they have to, and only because they have to
> 
> Then you have some people that are outright hilarious. E.g. during the last small heatwave i Was standing in line for ice cream. One person in the whole line actually wore those rubber OP glooves.
> 
> When she got her cone, and was passing by the still waiting queue the melting ice cream started to drip on her gloove.
> 
> Any she just licked it off her glooved hand! Lady WTF are you taking the trouble to wear these things if you lick them?!



The primary purpose of masks is to stop outgoing Covid, not incoming Covid.  Unless you have one of the N95? P95?(I can never remember the number) masks, they are almost useless for stopping Covid from getting in to you.  That's why it's so important for everyone to wear masks.  Studies show that if everyone is wearing a mask, spread drops by around 70%.

Getting it by contact and then touching your eyes and mouth is also unlikely.  It can happen, but by far the primary method of getting it is airborne.  The CDC has been saying this for a long time now.  It's the same with ingestion.  You don't catch it through your stomach, it needs to get into your lungs.


----------



## Cadence

The staff stopped wearing masks at the local (Columbia, SC) bagel shop  a few weeks ago (although sometimes they would just pull them up when customers came in).  The sandwich place near my office just stopped recently.

Started playing lunch time MtG in person once a week at the nearby middle-eastern restaurant again last month.  They still have the mask sign up, and this was the first time I've seen customers inside without one waiting for carry out.   :-(    All three of us playing are vaccinated and the sitting area is really empty.  Tired of getting stomped on in our social/75% games I put my pretty reasonable Sigarda Voltron deck back together.  It still has a good chance of being way too much in a 3 player game.  Needless to say the player who cast Zur's Weirding right after I cast her on Turn 5 wasn't happy to see me reveal the Hyena Umbra, Daybreak Coronet, and Winds of Rath in my hand.

In any case, I generally mask in places now if I see the staff or a few customers doing it.  At least one Food Lion (grocery store) employee has been masked each time I've gone in, but the %  seems to be going down.  Customer masking seems random there.


----------



## Cadence

Horwath said:


> Yes they do, but I would say that people just simply had it with this s#$t.
> 
> You get numb to danger and bad news after certain amount and that is it.
> Especially if nothing happens to you and still media and politician talk about Covid 24/7.
> 
> I am not saying that there in no danger. There is. Just saying that people ignore Covid rules and recommendations because they had enough of everything.




In the south-eastern US I'd give more credence to that explaining things more if there weren't so many people who were "numb" almost immediately (claiming masks didn't work, various cures worked, it was a hoax, the deaths weren't real, the schools should be full capacity, students shouldn't be wearing masks, claiming no evidence the vaccines work, boss ordering staff not to wear masks, having large unmasked gatherings, governors reinforcing some of those messages, etc...).   

I certainly believe the folks who've actually been being careful over the past year are tired of it, I know I am and have slacked off some!   It feels like something else from a lot of others here in the land of  43% vacc rate (of those age 12+)  when the centers started shutting down from lack of interest well over a month ago.


----------



## Mirtek

Maxperson said:


> The primary purpose of masks is to stop outgoing Covid, not incoming Covid.  Unless you have one of the N95? P95?(I can never remember the number) masks, they are almost useless for stopping Covid from getting in to you.  That's why it's so important for everyone to wear masks.  Studies show that if everyone is wearing a mask, spread drops by around 70%.



That was the official stance until November (I think that was November). Since then FFP2 is mandatory and the community mask that were hailed with exactly your argumentation for the last 9 months were decried everywhere as useless excercise


----------



## Maxperson

Mirtek said:


> That was the official stance until November (I think that was November). Since then FFP2 is mandatory and the community mask that were hailed with exactly your argumentation for the last 9 months were decried everywhere as useless excercise



I'm not sure what you mean here.  The community masks are not a useless exercise, they just work one way, not both.


----------



## Mirtek

Maxperson said:


> I'm not sure what you mean here.  The community masks are not a useless exercise, they just work one way, not both.



According to the german Corona Schutzverordnung which was done during our third wave, they are insufficient and you do no longer comply with the Maskenpflicht if you are wearing one and will be treated as if wearing no mask at all as far as penalties go. And how quickly the messages boards shifted over to this stance


----------



## Maxperson

Mirtek said:


> According to the german Corona Schutzverordnung which was done during our third wave, they are insufficient and do no longer comply with the Maskenpflicht.



According to several studies conducted by multiple countries, everyone wearing them reduced transmission by about 70%.


----------



## Mirtek

Maxperson said:


> According to several studies conducted by multiple countries, everyone wearing them reduced transmission by about 70%.



Tell that to the german government (who also were vehemently against any requirement to wear masks at all for app. the first 2 months)


----------



## Maxperson

Mirtek said:


> Tell that to the german government (who also were vehemently against any requirement to wear masks at all for app. the first 2 months)



I'm not German and they probably wouldn't listen to me.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Got my second shot today! And I _did_ get Moderna, like my first one, in spite of them warning me that they _might_ swap it out for Pfizer. I guess they just wanted people to be ready to take whatever is available (though they had Pfizer going around too - I think it was just in case of shortages that didn't happen).


----------



## MoonSong

Cadence said:


> I certainly believe the folks who've actually been being careful over the past year are tired of it, I know I am and have slacked off some! It feels like something else from a lot of others here in the land of 43% vacc rate (of those age 12+) when the centers started shutting down from lack of interest well over a month ago.



I don't know, sometimes I get bored of it, but then I look at so many irresponsible people and I remember that I don't want to bring home the bug. I'm vaccinated, several of my loved ones aren't yet.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

We’re close to 50% fully vaxed in Dallas county, with 80% at least half vaxed or having actually being ill with C19.

And with the nastier variants circulating, I have no problem masking up still.  I’ve forgotten my mask a few times- less than 1/week- but never for longer than a few minutes.

Besides C19, my allergies have been brutal this year, so it’s a lot better *optics* to cough, etc. while masked than un.


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We’re close to 50% fully vaxed in Dallas county, with 80% at least half vaxed or having actually being ill with C19.
> 
> And with the nastier variants circulating, I have no problem masking up still.  I’ve forgotten my mask a few times- less than 1/week- but never for longer than a few minutes.
> 
> Besides C19, my allergies have been brutal this year, so it’s a lot better *optics* to cough, etc. while masked than un.



Yeah.  I know the feeling.  I have cough variant asthma and bad allergies.  The combination gives me a cough for about 6-7 months out of the year..............................for the last 27 years or so.  Even with the mask on, I've gotten a LOT of looks.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’ve probably said it before, but it bears repeating: going forward from after the pandemic ends or society reaches some kind of equilibrium with it, I’m going to adopt the Japanese standard for masking.  If I have anything I suspect may be contagious, the mask will be on.  (possibly if my allergies are acting up, too.)


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’ve probably said it before, but it bears repeating: going forward from after the pandemic ends or society reaches some kind of equilibrium with it, I’m going to adopt the Japanese standard for masking.  If I have anything I suspect may be contagious, the mask will be on.  (possibly if my allergies are acting up, too.)




I will probably try this as well, but I'm not sure how it will play out.  It used to be that you could get kicked out of a bank for wearing a mask, and many other (US) business were not happy with people wearing masks for security reasons.  I know places like Disney had "no masks if you're over ~12 years old" rules.  We could see some interesting transitions.


----------



## CapnZapp

Far too much focus on masks here for my liking.

People don't like wearing masks. People won't wear masks indefinitely.

Let's instead focus on vaccinations, and acknowledge that getting riled up about people not wearing masks is a distraction from the real issue: getting vaccinated.

The end analysis is: soon richer countries can claim that anyone that wants the vaccine has had the opportunity to get it.

At this stage the question needs to be asked: who's the restrictions and limitations for?

At a certain point (and it is soon arriving) the conclusion will be that society should stop protecting those that didn't take the vaccine and get back to normal. 

More bluntly: if you get hospitalized because you weren't vaccinated, that's on _you_.

Meanwhile society will drop restrictions - and masks - and move on. This isn't yet public policy, but it will be - sooner than you think.

So get vaccinated. Now.

(Again, only addressing you if you're from a privileged country where vaccinations are readily available. The above does NOT apply to struggling countries around the world)


----------



## Maxperson

CapnZapp said:


> Far too much focus on masks here for my liking.
> 
> People don't like wearing masks. People won't wear masks indefinitely.
> 
> Let's instead focus on vaccinations, and acknowledge that getting riled up about people not wearing masks is a distraction from the real issue: getting vaccinated.
> 
> The end analysis is: soon richer countries can claim that anyone that wants the vaccine has had the opportunity to get it.
> 
> At this stage the question needs to be asked: who's the restrictions and limitations for?
> 
> At a certain point (and it is soon arriving) the conclusion will be that society should stop protecting those that didn't take the vaccine and get back to normal.
> 
> More bluntly: if you get hospitalized because you weren't vaccinated, that's on _you_.
> 
> Meanwhile society will drop restrictions - and masks - and move on. This isn't yet public policy, but it will be - sooner than you think.
> 
> So get vaccinated. Now.
> 
> (Again, only addressing you if you're from a privileged country where vaccinations are readily available. The above does NOT apply to struggling countries around the world)



The problem here is that in England, out of the last 90kish(going from memory) cases of Covid, close to 21k had at least 1 dose of the vaccine, and about 7k were fully vaccinated.  The Delta variant isn't leaving the vaccinated untouched, so it's not just the anti-vaxers who will be hit by this.


----------



## JEB

CapnZapp said:


> At this stage the question needs to be asked: who's the restrictions and limitations for?



Folks who _can't_ get vaccinated (as opposed to won't), to include kids under 12. Folks who had weak immune responses to the vaccine.



CapnZapp said:


> At a certain point (and it is soon arriving) the conclusion will be that society should stop protecting those that didn't take the vaccine and get back to normal.
> 
> More bluntly: if you get hospitalized because you weren't vaccinated, that's on _you_.



Besides the point @Maxperson raised... the longer the virus spreads unchecked among any sizeable section of the population, the more likely it is to develop mutations that get past our current vaccines. Which could wind up sending everyone right back where we were in 2020.

So we need to find ways to persuade enough vaccine-hesitant folks to change their minds, until we can get to herd immunity and the spread is controllable. Incentives, like lotteries, are one approach. Another would have been to keep mask mandates until the percentage of folks fully vaccinated hit herd immunity levels... a percentage which most parts of the world are very far from achieving (and even the U.S. is frustratingly short).


----------



## Horwath

JEB said:


> Folks who _can't_ get vaccinated (as opposed to won't), to include kids under 12. Folks who had weak immune responses to the vaccine.
> 
> 
> Besides the point @Maxperson raised... the longer the virus spreads unchecked among any sizeable section of the population, the more likely it is to develop mutations that get past our current vaccines. Which could wind up sending everyone right back where we were in 2020.
> 
> So we need to find ways to persuade enough vaccine-hesitant folks to change their minds, until we can get to herd immunity and the spread is controllable. Incentives, like lotteries, are one approach. Another would have been to keep mask mandates until the percentage of folks fully vaccinated hit herd immunity levels... a percentage which most parts of the world are very far from achieving (and even the U.S. is frustratingly short).



plenty of anti-vaccination "special persons" in Croatia also.

Longer this goes, more I am for compulsory vaccination or just giving out €1000 fines for everyone that refuses vaccination without VALID medical reason(allergies, compromised immune system, etc).


----------



## Zardnaar

Horwath said:


> plenty of anti-vaccination "special persons" in Croatia also.
> 
> Longer this goes, more I am for compulsory vaccination or just giving out €1000 fines for everyone that refuses vaccination without VALID medical reason(allergies, compromised immune system, etc).




 Illegal or against construction constitutional law in many places.


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> Illegal or against construction constitutional law in many places.



I know that. 
However, it is illegal until voted in as legal.


----------



## Umbran

JEB said:


> Besides the point @Maxperson raised... the longer the virus spreads unchecked among any sizeable section of the population, the more likely it is to develop mutations that get past our current vaccines. Which could wind up sending everyone right back where we were in 2020.




This goes especially for the immune-compromised.

Most folks have a case of covid, and are then done with it.  There's "long-covid".  But there's _also_ the problem of those with weakened immune systems that never quite clear the infection, and it is in these individuals that variants are most likely to arise.  They are also typically among the folks who can't get vaccinated.

So, we really need to vaccinate everyone we can, to protect those who cannot, because those who cannot are the ones most likely to generate a variant that might evade the vaccine.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> The Delta variant isn't leaving the vaccinated untouched...




Well, no, it isn't.  We wouldn't expect it to - no vaccine is perfect protection.

It does not help that folks who get vaccinated tend to then resume risky behaviors that many unvaccinated people still avoid.


----------



## AnotherGuy

JEB said:


> Besides the point @Maxperson raised... the longer the virus spreads unchecked among any sizeable section of the population, the more likely it is to develop mutations that get past our current vaccines. Which could wind up sending everyone right back where we were in 2020.



That's what a French virologist was warning of earlier this year (maybe even as far back as end of 2020) - the risk of a vaccine-resistant virus, similar to super-bugs.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Well, my second vaccination is kicking my butt. Had a high fever all night. Seem pretty okay now though, if a bit weak. I'd call that a worthwhile trade-off to be doing my part, though. I don't think the goal is necessarily to have _no_ side-effects - as long as the side-effects just involve discomfort. I can handle discomfort.


----------



## Maxperson

AnotherGuy said:


> That's what a French virologist was warning of earlier this year (maybe even as far back as end of 2020) - the risk of a vaccine-resistant virus, similar to super-bugs.



I've seen mixed articles about the Lambda variant being more resistant to the vaccines.  Waiting to see how that turns out.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Yeah.  My local grocery stores.  Whole Foods more than Stop and Shop, but in either one here, I will often see a majority of folks wearing masks, even when it is no longer required.




And of course a lot of them still _do_ require it.


----------



## Maxperson

FitzTheRuke said:


> Well, my second vaccination is kicking my butt. Had a high fever all night. Seem pretty okay now though, if a bit weak. I'd call that a worthwhile trade-off to be doing my part, though. I don't think the goal is necessarily to have _no_ side-effects - as long as the side-effects just involve discomfort. I can handle discomfort.



I'm sorry to hear that.  Some of my friends got hit hard like that.  My wife and I were blessed to just have sore arms for a few days.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> This goes especially for the immune-compromised.




This part of the reason I'm sticking with masking most places, even though both I and my wife have had both shots.

_Because I'm not the only damn person out there._

And at least some of those are people who for one reason or another don't actually have a choice about getting protected.  This can include people who are dependent on various kinds of vac-resistant people to get it done and people who can't do it for medical reasons.  These aren't the whole of the people who are unvaccinated--but you know what, even when it comes to them, I don't feel a need to make medical personnel deal with yet one more person dying on their watch right now (I was briefly hospitalized earlier this year, and talking to some of the nurses and other staff while I was there about it brought home just how ugly this has been for them).



Umbran said:


> Most folks have a case of covid, and are then done with it.  There's "long-covid".  But there's _also_ the problem of those with weakened immune systems that never quite clear the infection, and it is in these individuals that variants are most likely to arise.  They are also typically among the folks who can't get vaccinated.
> 
> So, we really need to vaccinate everyone we can, to protect those who cannot, because those who cannot are the ones most likely to generate a variant that might evade the vaccine.




And that's a thing, too.  Minimizing the breeding ground to the extent you can is kind of a moral obligation, and since you can't make other people get vaccinated, you can at least try to make it matter less that they didn't.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Maxperson said:


> I'm sorry to hear that.  Some of my friends got hit hard like that.  My wife and I were blessed to just have sore arms for a few days.



A sore arm is all I got from Shot#1.  Maybe I should have taken it easy, but I went right to work after getting my 2nd dose, and I lugged heavy boxes around for 8 hours. Who knows, it could have happened to me either way. I was _freezing_ in the night (and it's really _really_ not cold here). Teeth chattering cold. Not so bad now, though. 

Thanks for the well-wishes!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

‘Those deaths were preventable’: Unvaccinated parts of country are driving the pandemic now
					

Virtually all deaths from COVID-19 in the U.S. are now among people who have not received a coronavirus vaccine. And those deaths are highly concentrated in counties — many of them in the Midwest and Southeast — where vaccination rates are precariously low.




					www.yahoo.com
				




At this point:

1) Delta is the dominant strain and is accointing for most of the new infections in the USA.
2) 99.5% of C19 deaths are people who were not vaccinated.


----------



## CapnZapp

Maxperson said:


> The problem here is that in England, out of the last 90kish(going from memory) cases of Covid, close to 21k had at least 1 dose of the vaccine, and about 7k were fully vaccinated. The Delta variant isn't leaving the vaccinated untouched, so it's not just the anti-vaxers who will be hit by this.



Not sure why you decided to begin your reply with "the problem" as if you're arguing with me or against my points.

Okay, is my response.


----------



## CapnZapp

JEB said:


> So we need to find ways to persuade enough vaccine-hesitant folks to change their minds, until we can get to herd immunity and the spread is controllable. Incentives, like lotteries, are one approach. Another would have been to keep mask mandates until the percentage of folks fully vaccinated hit herd immunity levels... a percentage which most parts of the world are very far from achieving (and even the U.S. is frustratingly short).



Very commendable.

None of that's going to happen, though.

(Unless there's a mutation that renders the vaccine obsolete, our countries will just tough it out)


----------



## CapnZapp

AnotherGuy said:


> That's what a French virologist was warning of earlier this year (maybe even as far back as end of 2020) - the risk of a vaccine-resistant virus, similar to super-bugs.



Except how practically useless such a warning is.

After all, unless there's a practical course of action we can take, all we can do is shrug and hope for the best.


----------



## Zardnaar

Apparently there's been a balls up here. They sent out 1.7 million texts saying you can get a vaccine sometime in July. 

 The big problem being they don't have 1.7 million doses of vaccine. 

 Oops. 

  Australia has been one of the better countries to be on with Covid but the current outbreak in areas apparently is outpacing contact tracing and it's the delta variant.

  Various labour shortages continues, nurses going on strike and Aussies are trying to recruit said nurses (they pay a lot more). 

 Side effect of the Covid bailouts house prices went up 25% last year. Cheap in parts of my city it hit 40%


 Said nurses get paid more, better conditions less hours and cheaper cost of living. 

 Already short staffed and there's some other normal virus that missed it's yearly rounds last year but seems to be double strength this year filling up the hospitals.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

CapnZapp said:


> Except how practically useless such a warning is.
> 
> After all, unless there's a practical course of action we can take, all we can do is shrug and hope for the best.



Not useless at all.

While vaccine hesitancy is a thing, it’s mostly confined to a minority of the populations of nations with a pretty good supply of vaccines.

The REAL problem lies in those nations that have low vaccination rates mainly because they can’t get vaccines.  Unless and until those nations get their vaccination rates up where the front-runners are now, C19 mutations will continue to erupt from their populations.  While most mutations won’t be any more dangerous than the current crop (and most will be LESS so), a “superbug” could emerge at any time.

IOW, the pandemic won’t really end until we’re ahead of C19 on ALL fronts.

So, _as a practical matter_, ensuring those less developed nations get sufficient amounts of vaccines- including the ability to manufacture them in their own regions- is the proper course of action.

Looking further into the future, it’s probably in our long-term best interests as a species to continue to fund and even expand research into emergent pathogens in less developed nations.


----------



## Maxperson

CapnZapp said:


> Not sure why you decided to begin your reply with "the problem" as if you're arguing with me or against my points.
> 
> Okay, is my response.



Because it was an argument against your points.  With very significant numbers of vaccinated people coming down with the Delta variant, you can't just say, "Well, just let those who aren't vaccinated deal with it.  They had the choice and refused."  Those unvaccinated people will be giving Covid to a significant number of people who did the right thing and got the vaccine.


----------



## Zardnaar

Side effect of last year's Covid lockdowns.  It also eliminated all the other seasonal viruses that do the rounds. 

 So this year getting hit that much harder. 









						New Zealand children falling ill in high numbers due to Covid ‘immunity debt’
					

Doctors say children haven’t been exposed to range of bugs due to lockdowns, distancing and sanitiser and their immune systems are suffering




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> With very significant numbers of vaccinated people coming down with the Delta variant...




Let us be clear about something - you say 90K cases.  21K were partially vaxxed, and 7K were fully vaxxed.

That comes to a vaccine that was about 75% protective when partial, and 93% effective when fully vaccinated.  Back of the envelope, that's right about where we'd expect.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> Let us be clear about something - you say 90K cases.  21K were partially vaxxed, and 7K were fully vaxxed.
> 
> That comes to a vaccine that was about 75% protective when partial, and 93% effective when fully vaccinated.  Back of the envelope, that's right about where we'd expect.




That's about what I'd expect for the non-variants, so that seems good news.


----------



## DollarD

Umbran said:


> Let us be clear about something - you say 90K cases.  21K were partially vaxxed, and 7K were fully vaxxed.
> 
> That comes to a vaccine that was about 75% protective when partial, and 93% effective when fully vaccinated.  Back of the envelope, that's right about where we'd expect.




That works out to 62K unvaccinated people infected. If you then compare to the vaccinated numbers, you get 66% protective when partially vaccinated, and 88% when fully vaccinated. 

Still good numbers for the vaccines. I'm still 4 weeks out to my second dose, and the Delta variant is running wild in our communities here. The healthcare system here is overwhelmed now, and we're seeing almost a doubling of our natural mortality rate in Namibia.


----------



## Umbran

DollarD said:


> That works out to 62K unvaccinated people infected.




Eh, you would want to check the _actual_ data, rather than remembered numbers to do that, as some will report in a way that can double-count the fully-vaccinated.


----------



## Mirtek

A super bug could arise anywhere at any time. Even if we reach heard immunity and beyond, it could still arise in any of those few who could not get vaccinated or whose vaccination failed at the critical moment.

That's no ground to keep the current restrictions forever.

At one point C19 will be just one more common illnesses that kills a couple 100 to low thousand people each year. Mostly unvaccinated but also quite a few vaccinated as well.

People want to visit sport events, concerts, clubs, carnivals, etc. And not at only 25% capacity while having to stay 1.5m apart and wearing masks.

The % of supporters is falling steadily in Germany. If the government had allowed the arenas to be filled to full capacity for the european championship, it would have sold out no problem.

Pressure is rising and politicans are giving in all iver the country.

Even brothels are already allowed to re-open since July (yeah, I am sure the contact tracing there will go really well), and that's really a move I find too much too soon. Although to be fair it was also seen as legally difficult to deny their reopening unless a lot other stuff would have to keep closed too (fair treatment and stuff)


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Eh, you would want to check the _actual_ data, rather than remembered numbers to do that, as some will report in a way that can double-count the fully-vaccinated.



I had to explain that to someone recently. Something like 75% with first vaccination and 42% with both, thinking that meant everyone was pretty much vaccinated already. "You realize that totals over 100% if taken that way, right?"


----------



## Thomas Shey

Mirtek said:


> A super bug could arise anywhere at any time. Even if we reach heard immunity and beyond, it could still arise in any of those few who could not get vaccinated or whose vaccination failed at the critical moment.
> 
> That's no ground to keep the current restrictions forever.




You can get hit by a car when interacting with the street anytime, but that doesn't make no difference between using a crosswalk and looking both ways and walking across the middle with your eyes close.  The fact a lot of people have lost the thread on this doesn't make ignoring the consequences of the unvaccinated any less stupid.


----------



## Umbran

Mirtek said:


> A super bug could arise anywhere at any time. Even if we reach heard immunity and beyond, it could still arise in any of those few who could not get vaccinated or whose vaccination failed at the critical moment.
> 
> That's no ground to keep the current restrictions forever.




We were speaking of England a moment ago, so... your attitude above is ignoring a very basic matter - rising case numbers.
In May, England was down to under 2000 new cases a day.  Now, they are back up to 25,000 new cases a day.  A tenfold increase in cases in eight weeks _IS_ a reason to have restrictions in place.








Mirtek said:


> At one point C19 will be just one more common illnesses that kills a couple 100 to low thousand people each year. Mostly unvaccinated but also quite a few vaccinated as well.




"Eventually, all will be well, so chuck it all to the wind, and let folks die now," doesn't seem a solid position.



Mirtek said:


> People want to visit sport events, concerts, clubs, carnivals, etc. And not at only 25% capacity while having to stay 1.5m apart and wearing masks.




People are really, really bad at understanding risk.  People cannot visit sporting events, concerts, and clubs if they are dead.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

So I can make a general report.

Having been fully vaccinated for a while (I received both the Pfizers in April), I was out and about recently, hence my three-week sabbatical.

A few thoughts-

1. It must be so obnoxious to people in other countries, knowing that in the US we have all of this vaccine that people _won't take_, while they don't have any. I can't even.

2. I attended a concert. It ... was ... awesome. But here's the thing- it was 5,000 people, Enclosed space. No social distancing. A lot of drinking. No masks. And a LOT OF SINGING AT FULL VOLUME. I know what the vaccination rates. I know ... I KNOW ... that there were people, probably a lot of people, in that crowd that weren't vaccinated. 

I can't imagine that this is going to continue going well. I hope I'm wrong.


----------



## Mirtek

Umbran said:


> People are really, really bad at understanding risk.  People cannot visit sporting events, concerts, and clubs if they are dead.



Most people don't die. A few people out of a large total number might be a lot people, but relatively speaking 99% of the party crowd won't die. 90% of them won't even experience a serious case - and that's of those that even catch it in the first place.  Death/serious cases below the age of 60 are nearly nil in Germany. 

England has the arenas filled and the streets and pubs filled to the brim with people ignoring any restrictions that may still be in place after each english soccer victory and while the cases are on the rise, the people are OK with it. Of course not all people, but quite a lot people


----------



## Cadence

Mirtek said:


> Most people don't die. A few people out of a large total number might be a lot people, but relatively speaking 99% of the party crowd won't die. 90% of them won't even experience a serious case - and that's of those that even catch it in the first place.  Death/serious cases below the age of 60 are nearly nil in Germany.
> 
> England has the arenas filled and the streets and pubs filled to the brim with people ignoring any restrictions that may still be in place after each english soccer victory and while the cases are on the rise, the people are OK with it. Of course not all people, but quite a lot people




Most people not dying worked for.the US. I mean, what's 500k excess deaths among well fed and entertained countrymen. 

:-/


----------



## Mirtek

Cadence said:


> Most people not dying worked for.the US. I mean, what's 500k excess deaths among well fed and entertained countrymen.
> 
> :-/



CDC even says 600k when I look at your chart right now. And of those 474k were aged 65+

So get those vaccinated ASAP if you don't already have done so and if the tweens want to take their risks by going out to party, it's their choice


----------



## Cadence

Mirtek said:


> CDC even says 600k when I look at your chart right now. And of those 474k were aged 65+
> 
> So get those vaccinated ASAP if you don't already have done so and if the tweens want to take their risks by going out to party, it's their choice



I'd rather they weren't given the choice (the same as for many other diseases.with compulsory vaccinations here), but I guess until the vaccine is "fully approved" by the FDA we're stick with a mass.of variant generators.


----------



## Mirtek

Cadence said:


> I'd rather they weren't given the choice (the same as for many other diseases.with compulsory vaccinations here), but I guess until the vaccine is "fully approved" by the FDA we're stick with a mass.of variant generators.



I'd prefer mandatory vaccination too, but given the legal difficulties (not to speak of public oppinion) we have here in Germany I don't want to even imagine what an uphill battle that must be in the USA


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Most people not dying worked for.the US. I mean, what's 500k excess deaths among well fed and entertained countrymen.
> 
> :-/




 Can't be on *alert" all of the time. Humans don't function that way. 

 Bread and circuses.


----------



## Umbran

Mirtek said:


> Most people don't die.




"Eh, it won't kill _most_ people, so we should just ignore it.  Those people who do die, well, too friggin' bad for them!"

Sorry.  You get the benefit of living in a community of millions, and a world of billions.  Along with the benefits come some responsibiliteis to do some bare minimums to look out for each other.

Plus, the death toll could have been (and still could be, if we are collectively stupid) much, much worse.  As it was, we managed to largley keep our health care systems just under the point of collapse.  The death toll is like 1%... _IF_ they have proper medical assistance and support.  It goes up, waaay up, if victims don't have that support. 

Do not be fooled by the results you saw in Germany.  Germany didn't have its healthcare system collapse, because restrictions on people kept the numbers down.  To see more what it is really capable, we can look at Peru - covid-19 at its peak there killed 2.5 people per day per 100K in the population.  Triple the rate seen in Germany.

Imagine that Germany's healthcare system gets really swamped, and you reach Peruvian levels of deaths.  That would be 2000 people dead in Germany alone each day.  Across the EU, that would be over 10,000 people dying _per day_.

Sure, "it won't kill most people".  But if we are dumb, that "not most" still becomes quite the pile of corpses.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Can't be on *alert" all of the time. Humans don't function that way.
> 
> Bread and circuses.




I totally feel for everyone who for a year masked in public, didn't eat out, avoided large gatherings, minimized smaller ones, minimized going in stores, and then got the vaccine as soon as they were able. And especially for those who had their lives turned upside down by changes in schooling and jobs and not being able to visit sick relatives.  And those with folks at home with compromised immune systems who can't get the vaccine.

And then there are those who weren't on "alert' much at all,  who whined from the get go in spite of only masking when threatened with being kicked from the store, fought against any school safety procedures, regularly gathered with friends unmasked, often went to larger things if allowed, and heaped enough skepticism on everything that even if you hear they go the vaccine you're kind of surprised they bothered.   

:-/


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> "Eh, it won't kill _most_ people, so we should just ignore it.  Those people who do die, well, too friggin' bad for them!"
> 
> Sorry.  You get the benefit of living in a community of millions, and a world of billions.  Along with the benefits come some responsibiliteis to do some bare minimums to look out for each other.
> 
> Plus, the death toll could have been (and still could be, if we are collectively stupid) much, much worse.  As it was, we managed to largley keep our health care systems just under the point of collapse.  The death toll is like 1%... _IF_ they have proper medical assistance and support.  It goes up, waaay up, if victims don't have that support.
> 
> Do not be fooled by the results you saw in Germany.  Germany didn't have its healthcare system collapse, because restrictions on people kept the numbers down.  To see more what it is really capable, we can look at Peru - covid-19 at its peak there killed 2.5 people per day per 100K in the population.  Triple the rate seen in Germany.
> 
> Imagine that Germany's healthcare system gets really swamped, and you reach Peruvian levels of deaths.  That would be 2000 people dead in Germany alone each day.  Across the EU, that would be over 10,000 people dying _per day_.
> 
> Sure, "it won't kill most people".  But if we are dumb, that "not most" still becomes quite the pile of corpses.




 I think Germany had the highest numbers of nurses per Capita in the world. And one if the best health systems in one of the richest countries it's consistently ranked top ten, USA normally somewhere in the 20's. 

 In Ecuador Covid also overwhelmed the funeral services. Cardboard coffins in the street for army to pick up. Unofficially they may have been worse than Peru (April-June last year). 

 One reason we went so hard is we had half the ICU beds here than Australia. They're bigger on prevention here (read cheap).


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> I totally feel for everyone who for a year masked in public, didn't eat out, avoided large gatherings, minimized smaller ones, minimized going in stores, and then got the vaccine as soon as they were able. And especially for those who had their lives turned upside down by changes in schooling and jobs and not being able to visit sick relatives.  And those with folks at home with compromised immune systems who can't get the vaccine.
> 
> And then there are those who weren't on "alert' much at all,  who whined from the get go in spite of only masking when threatened with being kicked from the store, fought against any school safety procedures, regularly gathered with friends unmasked, often went to larger things if allowed, and heaped enough skepticism on everything that even if you hear they go the vaccine you're kind of surprised they bothered.
> 
> :-/




 Humans are social creatures. Here the lockdowns were harder in single people. 

 Spend 7 weeks with your family vs 7 weeks alone. There were cases of new couples who had been togather a week or two doing lockdown togather vs being alone.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Humans are social creatures.




One that bogles me is last week, a family was driving through several states from the SE US to NE US, and was going through NYC.  There were a few things they wanted to see in the city, but couldn't because those places required masks and they didn't have theirs.   

How do you go on a cross country trip these days without having them just in case?  And does no one in NYC have them for sale?


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> One that bogles me is last week, a family was driving through several states from the SE US to NE US, and was going through NYC.  There were a few things they wanted to see in the city, but couldn't because those places required masks and they didn't have theirs.
> 
> How do you go on a cross country trip these days without having them just in case?  And does no one in NYC have them for sale?




 Several possibilities. Are masks readily available, they forgot, don't care etc.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Several possibilities. Are masks readily available, they forgot, don't care etc.




It just seemed strange to me that they'd think that they wouldn't run in to some places on a trip through multiple states that would asked folks to wear them.  

In DC the other week I thought it was interesting to see how some places didn't seem to care while another required them unless seated and had a place to give information to help with contact tracing if needed.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> I think Germany had the highest numbers of nurses per Capita in the world. And one if the best health systems in one of the richest countries it's consistently ranked top ten, USA normally somewhere in the 20's.




Yep.  But any system made primarily of humans can be overwhelmed.  That's the point.  If you are stupid, that best-in-the-world will not save you.  Nobody's _invulnerable_.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> It just seemed strange to me that they'd think that they wouldn't run in to some places on a trip through multiple states that would asked folks to wear them.
> 
> In DC the other week I thought it was interesting to see how some places didn't seem to care while another required them unless seated and had a place to give information to help with contact tracing if needed.




 Yeah becoming surreal here. Keep waiting for the penny to drop. Sword of Damocles. 

  It's like an in off switch. No one cares flicks switch and it's all on.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Yep.  But any system made primarily of humans can be overwhelmed.  That's the point.  If you are stupid, that best-in-the-world will not save you.  Nobody's _invulnerable_.




 It's not because they're stupid it's because they're human. Complacency best case scenario and we'll yeah. 

 I have about 0 faith in my fellow humans so didn't expect much to start with. Europe surprised me rest if world not so much.


----------



## Eltab

Just think how much angst could be avoided if there were a well-supported effort to get treatment medicines for COVID up and running.  Something as effective as Contac or Nyquil or the 'store-brand' generics thereof are at dealing with the common cold.  Maybe based on the (limited) research done on hydroxychloroquine or ivermectin before those were shouted down over not being a silver bullet cure - or working from some biochemical I'm not aware of that kills COVID viruses and/or boosts the human immune system to do same.  Medicines intended to be distributed in the same way as those name brands mentioned above, so they can be near-universally available in the least amount of time and at an affordable price.


----------



## Cadence

Eltab said:


> Just think how much angst could be avoided if there were a well-supported effort to get treatment medicines for COVID up and running.



They're not looking for those!?!?



Eltab said:


> Medicines intended to be distributed in the same way as those name brands mentioned above, so they can be near-universally available in the least amount of time and at an affordable price.



In the US vaccine is free and it's going bad in the fridges because the half the country who hasn't had it doesn't want it.  Say they did find a new cure.  The FDA would presumably have to say it only had preliminary approval anyway for a few years?  Would all of the folks who don't take vaccine for that reason not take that either?


----------



## Deset Gled

Eltab said:


> Just think how much angst could be avoided if there were a well-supported effort to get treatment medicines for COVID up and running.  Something as effective as Contac or Nyquil or the 'store-brand' generics thereof are at dealing with the common cold.




The short answer is that the treatment you are looking for doesn't actually exist.  Things like OTC medications do absolutely noting to actually attack a virus.  They just treat the symptoms and make you feel better about it while your body's immune system does it's thing.

We did go through a huge phase of working on treatments at the beginning of this.  Remember the rush for ventilators?  That's the Nyquil equivalent for COVID19.


----------



## Mirtek

Umbran said:


> do some bare minimums to look out for each other.



And we're way beyond that bare minimum and have been for quite some time already. This level will not be upheld forever.

Like it or not but many countries are already dropping their anti C19 meassures by a lot. And public preassure is mounting for even more. And a huge lot of people jump on any new freedom immediately and also way too many just take freedoms that are not yet in concordance with local C19 laws anyway as soon as they see the enforcement flagging.

Just take a look at the Euro 2020 final tomorrow, both at what you'll see in the arena and what will happen outside and in either Rome or London, depending on the outcome. I am going on a limb here and take the bet that you will not see many masks or disctancing and probably not even the police trying to disolve anything but outright riots.

In Germany the  pedestrian zones and malls and promenades were filled to the brim during good wheather and as soon as masks were no longer mandatory outside they vanished from 95% of the faces. Despite what earlier surveys about voluntarily wearing masks said. Talk about attitude behaviour gap I guess. And people demand more and more. The voices for a total end of mask requirement even inside are getting more and getting louder. I don't see it survive past September in Germany and that's a late estimate. August as an end for almost all that's still in place is in demand too. And after opening even brothels, it does indeed seem silly to hold onto the rest of it any longer.

What if Omicron or Pi or Sigma come along and actually mutated to a degree that the current vaccines are all finally ineffective against it? Do you think people will accept to go back to April 2020 C19-alert-level and just wait until we get an updated vaccine and can start from square 1 all over again with actually getting it into the people?

All the pretended solidarity with the poorer countries is already dropping just like the masks are. Germany busily  securing thrid doses for all citizens while giving a token donation of way too few doses to countries who aren't even anywhere near getting a first dose for their citizens. And it's not was if the rest of the rich world is looking much better in this


----------



## Mirtek

Cadence said:


> And then there are those who weren't on "alert' much at all,  who whined from the get go in spite of only masking when threatened with being kicked from the store, fought against any school safety procedures, regularly gathered with friends unmasked, often went to larger things if allowed, and heaped enough skepticism on everything that even if you hear they go the vaccine you're kind of surprised they bothered.



Well, a few of those have paid for this (with severe C19), but the vast, vast majority got away with nothing happening to them and that just strengthened their conviction to have been right all along. Will make them even more entrenched in their position the next time.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Mirtek said:


> Well, a few of those have paid for this (with severe C19), but the vast, vast majority got away with nothing happening to them and that just strengthened their conviction to have been right all along. Will make them even more entrenched in their position the next time.




I bet they also weren't people who had family members or friends get severe cases.  If they were, they lack humanity in the first place that they can't see its not all about them.

(Also, given the numbers in the U.S. at least "vast majority" is doing an awful lot of heavy lifting there.)


----------



## Mirtek

Thomas Shey said:


> I bet they also weren't people who had family members or friends get severe cases.



This I would include under "paid for it"


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> This I would include under "paid for it"




 In Germany is it a government message thing or Covid fatigue after a year, social media etc?


----------



## Mirtek

Zardnaar said:


> In Germany is it a government message thing or Covid fatigue after a year, social media etc?



Both I guess. 

We of course have covid fatigue. Even though our restrictions have been relatively easy compared to other countries, it's taking it's toll on the people.

We got really well through the first two waves here, might actually more fitting to call them "splashes" rather than waves only for the third one to become our first "real" wave.

And our government is continuously moving the goal post.

We finally (mostly) left the "4-6 weeks November lockdown to break the third wave" in !May!

It was originally sold to the public as meassure to "save christmas", obviously people got more and more disgruntled with it still not being lifted at Easter and beyond

As far as goals went it was at first to prevent collapse of health care system. After this was clearly averted it became to get the incidence under 50. Once this was reached it suddenly became to get it under 35. Now that we're way below 10 it's all about reaching heard immunity through vaccination rate. 

This started to be communicated with a goal of getting 70% vaccinated. Now Delta is being cited as why this goal has to be moved to 85% instead. Unfortunately 85% may very well be impossible with our local anti-vacc crackheads and now people are doubly unhappy because they fear here's no chance of it ever being reached.

And we actually have election year BTW, so all parties are already having a nervous eye toward end of September. 

So we're seeing more and more restrictions lifted despite the newest goals not being reached.

Still people and a growing number of politicians, are demading a total end of all remaining restrictions as soon as everybody received at least an offer for vaccination. Whoever didn't take it just has to live with the risks and those who just could not get one have to hope that we have enough of a heard immunity by then.

Those demands started from the right wing parties, but are now also repeated from central parties too


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> Both I guess.
> 
> We of course have covid fatigue. Even though our restrictions have been relatively easy compared to other countries, it's taking it's toll on the people.
> 
> We got really well through the first two waves here, might actually more fitting to call them "splashes" rather than waves only for the third one to become our first "real" wave.
> 
> And our government is continuously moving the goal post.
> 
> We finally (mostly) left the "4-6 weeks November lockdown to break the third wave" in !May!
> 
> It was originally sold to the public as meassure to "save christmas", obviously people got more and more disgruntled with it still not being lifted at Easter and beyond
> 
> As far as goals went it was at first to prevent collapse of health care system. After this was clearly averted it became to get the incidence under 50. Once this was reached it suddenly became to get it under 35. Now that we're way below 10 it's all about reaching heard immunity through vaccination rate.
> 
> This started to be communicated with a goal of getting 70% vaccinated. Now Delta is being cited as why this goal has to be moved to 85% instead. Unfortunately 85% may very well be impossible with our local anti-vacc crackheads and now people are doubly unhappy because they fear here's no chance of it ever being reached.
> 
> And we actually have election year BTW, so all parties are already having a nervous eye toward end of September.
> 
> So we're seeing more and more restrictions lifted despite the newest goals not being reached.
> 
> Still people and a growing number of politicians, are demading a total end of all remaining restrictions as soon as everybody received at least an offer for vaccination. Whoever didn't take it just has to live with the risks and those who just could not get one have to hope that we have enough of a heard immunity by then.
> 
> Those demands started from the right wing parties, but are now also repeated from central parties too




 Ah gotcha. We had our Covid election last year except it backfired on the open up types. 

 There's no real plan  beyond borders are closed indefinitely

 Calls to discuss said plan are getting louder probably because there's an upwards pressure bon wages.

  So it's the other way round here. People want vaccines but can't get them (70% want them, 20% shy, 10% no). You can leave but getting back might be hard.


----------



## Eltab

Cadence said:


> In the US vaccine is free and it's going bad in the fridges because the half the country who hasn't had it doesn't want it.  Say they did find a new cure.  The FDA would presumably have to say it only had preliminary approval anyway for a few years?  Would all of the folks who don't take vaccine for that reason not take that either?



If the word came out that drinking a cup of Chai Tea and taking 100mg of Vitamin D every day (to make something up) would serve as immunoboosters against COVID, people would think "I can do that at breakfast, easy" and empty the store shelves of both.
But the source announcing that discovery matters.  Dr. Fauci saying so is going to get the same disgruntled reaction as his other statements get - but if the word came from a hospital that has been treating patients for the whole past year-plus ... those doctors / nurses will be presumed to know what they are talking about; they were right there to see in person how it worked.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Eltab said:


> If the word came out that drinking a cup of Chai Tea and taking 100mg of Vitamin D every day (to make something up) would serve as immunoboosters against COVID, people would think "I can do that at breakfast, easy" and empty the store shelves of both.
> But the source announcing that discovery matters.  Dr. Fauci saying so is going to get the same disgruntled reaction as his other statements get - but if the word came from a hospital that has been treating patients for the whole past year-plus ... those doctors / nurses will be presumed to know what they are talking about; they were right there to see in person how it worked.




You're an optimist.  I've seen people outright accuse hospital personnel of lying.  They're better people than I am, because I'd been hard pressed not to punch them in the face.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Thomas Shey said:


> You're an optimist.  I've seen people outright accuse hospital personnel of lying.  They're better people than I am, because I'd been hard pressed not to punch them in the face.



Yeah.  Over the past year, I’ve seen numerous hospital nurses and MDs talking about how they got cursed the hell out by mortally ill patients who were given a Covid diagnosis.  Some denied the reality of the disease literally to their dying breaths.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hmmmn.


----------



## CapnZapp

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not useless at all.
> 
> While vaccine hesitancy is a thing, it’s mostly confined to a minority of the populations of nations with a pretty good supply of vaccines.
> 
> The REAL problem lies in those nations that have low vaccination rates mainly because they can’t get vaccines.  Unless and until those nations get their vaccination rates up where the front-runners are now, C19 mutations will continue to erupt from their populations.  While most mutations won’t be any more dangerous than the current crop (and most will be LESS so), a “superbug” could emerge at any time.
> 
> IOW, the pandemic won’t really end until we’re ahead of C19 on ALL fronts.
> 
> So, _as a practical matter_, ensuring those less developed nations get sufficient amounts of vaccines- including the ability to manufacture them in their own regions- is the proper course of action.
> 
> Looking further into the future, it’s probably in our long-term best interests as a species to continue to fund and even expand research into emergent pathogens in less developed nations.



This post is written as if I argued against any of your very logical arguments...

Was I saying we should not give less developed countries vaccines, for instance? No.

I was saying that a warning needs to come with a practical course (or change) of action. Just worrying about the current state of affairs is not news.

Yes, a superbug can erupt. No, we probably can't defeat covid much faster than we're already doing, and politicians are very very good at just straight up ignoring theoretical threats. People are just going to ignore "cry wolf" type of warnings.

It's like with climate warnings. Do they work? Immeasurably slowly compared to how heat domes and 50 degree Celsius summers get people's attention. Warnings that basically only exist so "we could say told you so" only frustrate me.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Warnings don’t just serve to say “I told you so!”  Some people actually take them to heart.  And the more that do, the better off we are.


----------



## CapnZapp

Maxperson said:


> Because it was an argument against your points.  With very significant numbers of vaccinated people coming down with the Delta variant, you can't just say, "Well, just let those who aren't vaccinated deal with it.  They had the choice and refused."  Those unvaccinated people will be giving Covid to a significant number of people who did the right thing and got the vaccine.



Good luck shutting down society indefinitely then. You come across as surreally out of touch if you sincerely believe people will keep isolating or use masks.

French scientists recently predicted we would need 95% vaccination rates to defeat Delta. The US will never reach those levels, unless you get Republican leaders to agree to mandatory vaccinations - either "voluntarily" or involuntarily when you're thrown in prison.

I'm not claiming the moral high ground here. I'm just saying that humanity _will_ be split into two parts - those that vaccinate (and keep vaccinating for the indeterminate future) and those that don't.

I further predict that the factor that reduces the latter group will not primarily be information campaigns (or free lottery tickets!). Instead it will be death and hospitalization. If all your loved ones die horribly you'd at least think it challenges your vaccine hesitancy, but that's probably just wishful thinking.

But I guess I should get back to my point:

I do not believe society will wait for the vaccine hesitators to change their mind before dropping restrictions. Because that will mean permanent restrictions.


----------



## CapnZapp

Umbran said:


> Let us be clear about something - you say 90K cases.  21K were partially vaxxed, and 7K were fully vaxxed.
> 
> That comes to a vaccine that was about 75% protective when partial, and 93% effective when fully vaccinated.  Back of the envelope, that's right about where we'd expect.



And to repeat something ad nauseam:

Unless I'm mistaken this report (like so many others) keep discussing "get sick" as opposed to "be well".

But I care much much more about the statistics about death and hospitalization.

A number like "93% effective" (or 88% etc) might be interesting to immunologists, but I care about the number that tells me if the vaccine will keep me out of the ICU. For the life of me I can't understand why the news are so obsessed with the way less interesting number...


----------



## CapnZapp

Thomas Shey said:


> You can get hit by a car when interacting with the street anytime, but that doesn't make no difference between using a crosswalk and looking both ways and walking across the middle with your eyes close.  The fact a lot of people have lost the thread on this doesn't make ignoring the consequences of the unvaccinated any less stupid.



Nobody is arguing with you on that point. 

It's just that there are some mightily unrealistic hopes for how people are going to react. People are -apparently- stupid, ignorant and selfish. The number of conspiracy theorists and anti-vaxxers will remain higher than needed for the virus to keep circulating. 

I wish I could add "unless your country is enlightened enough" but I've lost hope even my own country belongs to that club... 

It is extremely obvious total lockdowns (the kind where police drags you away if you violate curfews) are the only thing that works against COVID. The frustration in seeing politicians drag their feet time and time again, and only impose ineffectual restrictions way past the time they would have been truly effective has made for an excruciating year and a half. Observing seemingly intellectual friends downplay and dismiss the pandemic. Basically seeing society taking EVERY CHANCE to act as if the pandemic didn't exist.

Basically, the only regimes equipped to actually defeat COVID are the truly authoritarian ones. I'm all for democracy, but apparently that means your freedom to infect and kill others is a sacred liberty...


----------



## Zardnaar

Jacindas an authoritarian!!

Crap I voted for her twice. Damn commie authortarian.


----------



## Maxperson

CapnZapp said:


> Good luck shutting down society indefinitely then. You come across as surreally out of touch if you sincerely believe people will keep isolating or use masks.
> 
> French scientists recently predicted we would need 95% vaccination rates to defeat Delta. The US will never reach those levels, unless you get Republican leaders to agree to mandatory vaccinations - either "voluntarily" or involuntarily when you're thrown in prison.



Herd immunity happens at less than 95%. Right now about 91% of Americans are vaccinated against Measles, which is more contagious than even Delta Covid, and we still have herd immunity against it.  Occasionally a small outbreak happens among the fools that didn't get it. One panel of French scientists warning "that as many as 95% of people *might* need to be vaccinated" doesn't mean a whole lot on its own.  I'll wait to see what other scientists say.


----------



## CapnZapp

Maxperson said:


> Herd immunity happens at less than 95%. Right now about 91% of Americans are vaccinated against Measles, which is more contagious than even Delta Covid, and we still have herd immunity against it. Occasionally a small outbreak happens among the fools that didn't get it. One panel of French scientists warning "that as many as 95% of people *might* need to be vaccinated" doesn't mean a whole lot on its own. I'll wait to see what other scientists say.



I'm no doctor, so please don't get fixated on any specific number.

Besides, you missed the point. The number doesn't matter. What matters is if it is higher than the percentage of people that can be persuaded to vaccinate.

So whatever the actual percentage is, is very likely much higher than the percentage we can attain, at least in countries with actively destructive political leaders.

And to be clear: that specifically means to not get fixated on any given number.

In some countries the hope of reaching this number actually lives. But not in enough countries to matter, or in the really big countries.

USA is the main obstacle here. Despite having every resource and opportunity, the US will very likely fail.

Of course if you believe the number is lower than the number of anti-vaxxers, Republicans, conspiracy theorists, and what not, then you are welcome to argue that. I honestly envy you and wish I could hope I was wrong and you were right.


----------



## Mirtek

CapnZapp said:


> but apparently that means your freedom to infect and kill others is a sacred liberty...



Or seeing it the other round: the risk of getting an infect that may kill you is just part of the price of freedom.

The Bundestagspräsident (president of the parliament ) said the following in an interview:

" Aber wenn ich höre, alles andere habe vor dem Schutz von Leben zurückzutreten, dann muss ich sagen: Das ist in dieser Absolutheit nicht richtig. Grundrechte beschränken sich gegenseitig. Wenn es überhaupt einen absoluten Wert in unserem Grundgesetz gibt, dann ist das die Würde des Menschen. Die ist unantastbar. Aber sie schließt nicht aus, dass wir sterben müssen."

"But when I hear that everything else has to step back before the protection of life, then I have to say: This is not correct as such an absolute. Fundamental rights are restricting each other. If there is any absolute value at all in our constiturion, then its the human dignity. It's inviolable. But it does not mean that we won't die".


I am not allowed to punch you in the face. But that doesn't mean I have to walk with my arms tied to my side lest the swing of my arms while walking somehow accidentally hits you.

There's a point when me harming you is due to such an indirect cause as that you have to bear me being me being allowed to do it.


----------



## Thomas Shey

CapnZapp said:


> Basically, the only regimes equipped to actually defeat COVID are the truly authoritarian ones. I'm all for democracy, but apparently that means your freedom to infect and kill others is a sacred liberty...




Even they aren't; the difference is that the flaws there involve inability to acknowledge error.


----------



## CapnZapp

Mirtek said:


> Or seeing it the other round: the risk of getting an infect that may kill you is just part of the price of freedom.
> 
> The Bundestagspräsident (president of the parliament ) said the following in an interview:
> 
> " Aber wenn ich höre, alles andere habe vor dem Schutz von Leben zurückzutreten, dann muss ich sagen: Das ist in dieser Absolutheit nicht richtig. Grundrechte beschränken sich gegenseitig. Wenn es überhaupt einen absoluten Wert in unserem Grundgesetz gibt, dann ist das die Würde des Menschen. Die ist unantastbar. Aber sie schließt nicht aus, dass wir sterben müssen."
> 
> "But when I hear that everything else has to step back before the protection of life, then I have to say: This is not correct as such an absolute. Fundamental rights are restricting each other. If there is any absolute value at all in our constiturion, then its the human dignity. It's inviolable. But it does not mean that we won't die".
> 
> 
> I am not allowed to punch you in the face. But that doesn't mean I have to walk with my arms tied to my side lest the swing of my arms while walking somehow accidentally hits you.
> 
> There's a point when me harming you is due to such an indirect cause as that you have to bear me being me being allowed to do it.



Sorry I have no time for crap like this.

Please don't elevate the stupid selfish behavior of neanderthals to angelic ideals.

I commend your posts for helping me put up a counterpoint to the theoretically scientific best courses of action that completely ignores how people act in real life, but democracy can and do violate the rights of its citizens on a routine basis, and everybody agrees that is just as it should be.

Arguing _this_ should not be one of those cases is just stupid. When the only thing that works is instructing the police to prevent you from going to the shopping center (or a nightclub etc), then obviously that is what we should do.


----------



## CapnZapp

Thomas Shey said:


> Even they aren't; the difference is that the flaws there involve inability to acknowledge error.



True.


----------



## Maxperson

Mirtek said:


> Or seeing it the other round: the risk of getting an infect that may kill you is just part of the price of freedom.



Freedoms stop at harm to others.  You are not free to drive a car through the middle of a preschool, or even drive 150 miles an hour through a neighborhood.  You are not free to hurl a baseball into a crowd as hard as you can.  


Mirtek said:


> I am not allowed to punch you in the face. But that doesn't mean I have to walk with my arms tied to my side lest the swing of my arms while walking somehow accidentally hits you.



Which is a False Equivalence to Covid.  Refusal to wear the masks when necessary is more like the above driving 150mph down a surface street.  It's recklessly dangerous and if you should hit someone accidentally, you are directly at fault.


Mirtek said:


> There's a point when me harming you is due to such an indirect cause as that you have to bear me being me being allowed to do it.



It's not all that indirect, though.  We have a very deadly virus that is contagious before it ever starts to show symptoms and if if you are not symptomatic at all, so if you have it, and it's very contagious, you WILL give it to others.  This isn't like a normal flu or cold.


----------



## Mirtek

Maxperson said:


> Freedoms stop at harm to others.  You are not free to drive a car through the middle of a preschool, or even drive 150 miles an hour through a neighborhood.  You are not free to hurl a baseball into a crowd as hard as you can.



Yet I am allowed to drive my car despite the fact that as soon as I turn the key I add another miniscule part to the air polution that as a whole kills thousands each year in Europe.



> . Refusal to wear the masks when necessary is more like the above driving 150mph down a surface street.
> [...] It's not all that indirect, though.



That's for the courts to decide and at least tin Germany quite a few C19 regulations have been overruled by courts due to going too far, even though they would have certainly been effective.

Fact is that your right not to be hurt only goes so far and does not demand absolute submission of anyone else. There's a point below which you have to accept that anothers action simply run contrary but are allowed nevertheless.

Being forced to wear mask may, at a certain point in immunization, or worst case after the realization that this goal may forever be out of reach, be part of those.

That will differ from country to country based on it's specific laws and in Germany at least the requirment for maks is swaying and may very well fall soon.



> if you have it



 And even at the height of our worst wave we never had more than 0.5% of the population actually having it at once. So 99.5% have been restricted on a "just in case" basis as a prevention meassure and critics have been questioning this stretching of the law form day 1.

Now given the contagious and tricky nature of C19 it may seem reasonable, but it still leaves a sour tast in many people mouths. We're not locking up everybody just as prevention meassure in case they might become a bank robber after all.


----------



## Maxperson

Mirtek said:


> Yet I am allowed to drive my car despite the fact that as soon as I turn the key I add another miniscule part to the air polution that as a whole kills thousands each year in Europe.



There's a big difference between that and infecting several people directly with Covid.


Mirtek said:


> That's for the courts to decide and at least tin Germany quite a few C19 regulations have been overruled by courts due to going too far, even though they would have certainly been effective.



No it isn't.  The Courts have no ability to decide whether or not that analogy fits.  Nor do they create law, so any potential punishments would have to come from the legislature first.


Mirtek said:


> Fact is that your right not to be hurt only goes so far and does not demand absolute submission of anyone else. There's a point below which you have to accept that anothers action simply run contrary but are allowed nevertheless.



Nobody has asked or demanded submission from people during the entirety of Covid, so...


Mirtek said:


> Being forced to wear mask may, at a certain point in immunization, or worst case after the realization that this goal may forever be out of reach, be part of those.



So nobody and no country grants absolute freedom.  You aren't losing freedoms by having to wear a mask.  You already are required to wear clothing in public, so why aren't you complaining about lost freedoms there?


Mirtek said:


> And even at the height of our worst wave we never had more than 0.5% of the population actually having it at once. So 99.5% have been restricted on a "just in case" basis as a prevention meassure and critics have been questioning this stretching of the law form day 1.



You act as if *4 million* people is inconsequential.


Mirtek said:


> Now given the contagious and tricky nature of C19 it may seem reasonable, but it still leaves a sour tast in many people mouths. We're not locking up everybody just as prevention meassure in case they might become a bank robber after all.



And when they start locking you up for Covid, get back to me.  Having to wear a mask doesn't even begin to come close to being the same as being imprisoned.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> A number like "93% effective" (or 88% etc) might be interesting to immunologists, but I care about the number that tells me if the vaccine will keep me out of the ICU. For the life of me I can't understand why the news are so obsessed with the way less interesting number...




Because they express pretty much the same thing.  And, in fact, the _real_ number is 1) not a universal number, and is highly situation-dependent, and 2) likely to mislead people into risky action, because they don't understand odds and risk worth a good gosh-darn.

If they say it is 93% effective, that means you are 93% _less likely_ to get it than a similar person in the same circumstances.  And by "get it" they don't mean "become infected and detectable by some particular test".  They mean, "become symptomatic", actually get sick.

But how likely is that, exactly?  There are too many variables for anyone to tell you that.  The more abstract number can be found in statistics over large groups, the detailed version for an individual cannot be.


----------



## Umbran

Mirtek said:


> Yet I am allowed to drive my car despite the fact that as soon as I turn the key I add another miniscule part to the air polution that as a whole kills thousands each year in Europe.




Logical fallacy:_  Tu quoque_ (aka Whataboutism)  "You say this is true for X.  But what about Y?" 

Lack of consistency with other matters doesn't say anything about this one matter.  Yes, you are allowed to add to pollution. And maybe that's wrong too, but that is beside the point under consideration here.


----------



## Mirtek

> No it isn't. The Courts have no ability to decide whether or not that analogy fits. Nor do they create law, so any potential punishments would have to come from the legislature first.



 The courts ultimately watch that the legislative does follow the laws which are of of prime importance, and one of those is the proportionality of new laws. And quite a few C19 rules passed by the legislature were taken back by the courts because they were ruled to be disproportionate. Just because it would reduce C19 risks doesn't mean that everything can be done.



Maxperson said:


> You act as if *4 million* people is inconsequential.



That's the total. But they were not all infected at the same time. The height was ~320k at once being infected.



> Lack of consistency with other matters doesn't say anything about this one matter.



 Actually it does. At least in German law. That's one of the common reasons why certain C19 rules were revoked by courts. Because the lack of consistency with similar matters was ruled to be arbitrariness and that's not legal


----------



## Zardnaar

Government actually surveyed people's thoughts. 









						New Zealand is done thinking about Covid-19, finds government study
					

The country is over Covid and just wants nice lie down and a rest.



					thespinoff.co.nz
				




 People want to travel (during pandemic wtf). Easy to leave getting back might be difficult.

 There's diminishing returns on lockdowns and compliance.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

C19 has found itself in the sweet spot of the minds of modern humanity.  Currently, it’s between being contagious and dangerous enough for a sizeable number of people to recognize it as a threat, but also not being dangerous enough that each person infected is at a serious personal risk of death or long term disability, so another largish group is somewhat more cavalier to its actual threat level.


----------



## Zardnaar

Australia has had first Covid related death in 10 months. 









						Australia: New South Wales confirms first Covid-related death in 10 months
					

A woman in her 90s died in Sydney, as state officials warn of a surge in new infections.



					www.bbc.com
				




 Currently in lockdown, delta variant 5 million people in Sydney iirc.

Most of the reasonably safe places have had breakouts last few weeks (Taiwan, Vietname, Fiji, Australia).


----------



## CapnZapp

Umbran said:


> Because they express pretty much the same thing.  And, in fact, the _real_ number is 1) not a universal number, and is highly situation-dependent, and 2) likely to mislead people into risky action, because they don't understand odds and risk worth a good gosh-darn.
> 
> If they say it is 93% effective, that means you are 93% _less likely_ to get it than a similar person in the same circumstances.  And by "get it" they don't mean "become infected and detectable by some particular test".  They mean, "become symptomatic", actually get sick.
> 
> But how likely is that, exactly?  There are too many variables for anyone to tell you that.  The more abstract number can be found in statistics over large groups, the detailed version for an individual cannot be.



I am not sure this is correct.

I have seen reports that give significantly different numbers for "getting infected" (the state most important for transmitting the disease) and "getting hospitalized or otherwise seriously inconvenienced" (the state most important for the individual).

On the order of perhaps 85% and 98% respectively for a vaccine that's reported at 85% but really protects 98% against serious complications.

The reason I'm frustrated with news sources is that while the first number is arguably more important for humanity as a whole, the news never make that prioritization any other time, so why now? News are sold to individuals, why not report the important number for the reader?!


----------



## CapnZapp

Zardnaar said:


> Australia has had first Covid related death in 10 months.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Australia: New South Wales confirms first Covid-related death in 10 months
> 
> 
> A woman in her 90s died in Sydney, as state officials warn of a surge in new infections.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Currently in lockdown, delta variant 5 million people in Sydney iirc.



Less then 10% fully vaccinated. Ouch.

I truly believed Australia was one of the rich industrialized countries. I would have guessed roughly half the population (and certainly every 90-year old!) was fully or partially vaccinated... Do you know what the reason is?



> Most of the reasonably safe places have had breakouts last few weeks (Taiwan, Vietname, Fiji, Australia).



There are no safe places.


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> Less then 10% fully vaccinated. Ouch.
> 
> I truly believed Australia was one of the rich industrialized countries. I would have guessed roughly half the population (and certainly every 90-year old!) was fully or partially vaccinated... Do you know what the reason is?
> 
> 
> There are no safe places.




  NZs reasonably safe

 Reason we don't have high vaccination rates is vaccine availability. Buying thems not the problem. 

 Other nations also need them more as well. Plus we're helping out several small states.









						Covid-19: Weeks of training for contactless delivery of Pfizer jabs to virus-free Tokelau
					

The naval vessel will deliver Tokelau's Pfizer vaccines - enough supply to jab its entire eligible population.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Is it a communication thing overseas? US/UK media more sensationalist from what I've seen/read. 


Government's always been (reasonably) clear about goals and strategy. It's over when it's over.


----------



## Hussar

CapnZapp said:


> Less then 10% fully vaccinated. Ouch.
> 
> I truly believed Australia was one of the rich industrialized countries. I would have guessed roughly half the population (and certainly every 90-year old!) was fully or partially vaccinated... Do you know what the reason is?
> 
> 
> There are no safe places.



I wish we were half here in Japan.  I believe that we're at 25% for the first shot.  

I get to make a reservation tomorrow for my first shot.  Not actually go mind you.  Just make the reservation.  Actual time to be announced.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> I have seen reports that give significantly different numbers for "getting infected" (the state most important for transmitting the disease) and "getting hospitalized or otherwise seriously inconvenienced" (the state most important for the individual).




Of course you are seeing different numbers, because asymptomatic infection is a thing.  Preventing _all infection_ was not the measure of effectiveness in development of the vaccines, though.  And preventing transmission was not measured in development at all.  The vaccines are extremely good at keeping you out of the hospital, very good at keeping you from getting sick.  They also happen to be good at keeping you from getting infected at all, and preventing transmission (which are only slightly related).



CapnZapp said:


> The reason I'm frustrated with news sources is that while the first number is arguably more important for humanity as a whole




Because it is significantly harder to do.  It calls for finding thousands of vaccinated people (a representative sample of the population - across all ages, sexes, races, socio-economic classes, and so on), and following up with them to do tests at frequent and regular intervals, when they have no other reason to interact with the healthcare system.  You need a similar population to test "don't get sick", but follow up can be done on the phone.

Plus, it is only _arguably_ the most important number.  "You don't get sick" is an excellent number.  It includes "you don't die" and "you don't wind up in the hospital" as well as "you don't go on a ventilator", for example, all of which is extremely relevant to society when looking at a pandemic - it basically means "you will be no burden to the healthcare system", which is a major concern to a system facing greter volume than it can handle.



CapnZapp said:


> News are sold to individuals, why not report the important number for the reader?!




Oh, while "don't get infected" is arguably most important to society, it is NOT the most important to the individual.  Individuals don't give a rat's patoot if they get infected - they care about getting seriously sick or dying.


----------



## CapnZapp

Zardnaar said:


> Reason we don't have high vaccination rates is vaccine availability. Buying thems not the problem.



Sorry but several European countries are at 50% fully vaccinated.

Just saying that if vaccine availability is lower for you, the EU, the US and the UK did something your government did not.

My surprise was because I had a fuzzy notion AUS and NZ are at similar levels of industrial capacity, vaccine purchasing power and what not.

10% is more akin to a much MUCH less developed country than I took AUSNZ to be. Naturally I wondered if there was consensus around the reason. 

I don't know, complacency due to the successful travel bubble, leaders not taking the pandemic seriously or whatnot.

I don't know, which is why I'm asking


----------



## CapnZapp

Umbran said:


> Of course you are seeing different numbers, because asymptomatic infection is a thing. Preventing _all infection_ was not the measure of effectiveness in development of the vaccines, though. And preventing transmission was not measured in development at all. The vaccines are extremely good at keeping you out of the hospital, very good at keeping you from getting sick. They also happen to be good at keeping you from getting infected at all, and preventing transmission (which are only slightly related).
> 
> 
> 
> Because it is significantly harder to do. It calls for finding thousands of vaccinated people (a representative sample of the population - across all ages, sexes, races, socio-economic classes, and so on), and following up with them to do tests at frequent and regular intervals, when they have no other reason to interact with the healthcare system. You need a similar population to test "don't get sick", but follow up can be done on the phone.
> 
> Plus, it is only _arguably_ the most important number. "You don't get sick" is an excellent number. It includes "you don't die" and "you don't wind up in the hospital" as well as "you don't go on a ventilator", for example, all of which is extremely relevant to society when looking at a pandemic - it basically means "you will be no burden to the healthcare system", which is a major concern to a system facing greter volume than it can handle.
> 
> 
> 
> Oh, while "don't get infected" is arguably most important to society, it is NOT the most important to the individual. Individuals don't give a rat's patoot if they get infected - they care about getting seriously sick or dying.



My point is because of vaccines with a reported percentage of maybe 75% or 80%.

In Pfizer's case, the difference between a figure of maybe 96% and 99% (examples, I don't know the precise numbers) is so little that the population regards them as essentially the same.

But when a vaccine percentage number like 80% gets bandied about in the press I want to shout "the interesting number is 98%!!"

Yes 80% intuitively comes across as low. But it is also not relevant.

It has only contributed to scepticism against Astra Zeneca, for instance.

It would have been infinitely more valuable if the general public got the choice between 98% and 99%.

I'm not talking about blood clots. Just generally venting my frustration at the press using a number that isn't important, basically.


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> Sorry but several European countries are at 50% fully vaccinated.
> 
> Just saying that if vaccine availability is lower for you, the EU, the US and the UK did something your government did not.
> 
> My surprise was because I had a fuzzy notion AUS and NZ are at similar levels of industrial capacity, vaccine purchasing power and what not.
> 
> 10% is more akin to a much MUCH less developed country than I took AUSNZ to be. Naturally I wondered if there was consensus around the reason.
> 
> I don't know, complacency due to the successful travel bubble, leaders not taking the pandemic seriously or whatnot.
> 
> I don't know, which is why I'm asking




 EU and USA manufacture vaccines we don't. 

 Government's can block exports or directly or indirectly pressure the manufacturers to supply them first. 

 Australia is running ads for vaccinations you can't get while here they think by the end of the year you can get one.

 Other countries need the vaccines more as well. Downside is if delta gets out of control.

 Australia richer than NZ and I think the average Australian household is richer than USA (not GDP per Capita). Better wealth distribution.

  So it's mostly supply issues and perhaps mono vaccine option due to the way healthcare is funded/applied. They selected Pfizer here that's your only option.


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> EU and USA manufacture vaccines we don't.



That lack can be fixed.

It would not be a bad thing if some wealthy nation not normally thought of as "cutting edge of technology" were to start research into "what medicines kill viruses?"  It looks like we are going to face animal-to-human transmission of something new every decade or so.  Having a solid foundation of options - which need not be optimised - available at need would be a plus.


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> That lack can be fixed.
> 
> It would not be a bad thing if some wealthy nation not normally thought of as "cutting edge of technology" were to start research into "what medicines kill viruses?"  It looks like we are going to face animal-to-human transmission of something new every decade or so.  Having a solid foundation of options - which need not be optimised - available at need would be a plus.




True it's an example of the last 40 years though. Race to the bottom outsource where it's cheaper. 

 But then something goes wrong (war, disaster, plague etc) and yeah local manufacturing makes a lot of sense. 

  Catch 22 though healthcare here is "free" but underfunded comparatively so they're always looking for cheap solutions (read as imported).


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> True it's an example of the last 40 years though. Race to the bottom outsource where it's cheaper.
> 
> But then something goes wrong (war, disaster, plague etc) and yeah local manufacturing makes a lot of sense.




In some cases its simply impractical, though.  Some things require sufficiently specialized and dedicated facilities that, while there's enough demand for their services to justify their existence, there isn't enough to justify it in every single country.  And of course with some things it doesn't solve the problem of raw material supply (both of these are issues with current generation IC chips).


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Thomas Shey said:


> In some cases its simply impractical, though.  Some things require sufficiently specialized and dedicated facilities that, while there's enough demand for their services to justify their existence, there isn't enough to justify it in every single country.  And of course with some things it doesn't solve the problem of raw material supply (both of these are issues with current generation IC chips).



Not every country, no.  But on all continents?  Certainly.  Probably even in “regions“ of a certain size.

If nothing else, a distributed production network would make things cheaper in the developing world, and would also serve as a redundant safeguard if something nasty got out.  For example, if the vaccine for Pathogen X was only manufactured in the USA, and suddenly, the USA was struggling with a virulent, deadly mutation of Pathogen X, the rest of the world would be scrambling to make their own production facilities.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> That lack can be fixed.




Not on short timescale it cannot.  The mRNA vaccines use new processes that aren't run of the mill chemistry for everyone.  Building the facilities and training up the skills can take years.  While building for the future is excellent, we also have to deal with the world we have at the moment.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not every country, no.  But on all continents?  Certainly.  Probably even in “regions“ of a certain size.
> 
> If nothing else, a distributed production network would make things cheaper in the developing world, and would also serve as a redundant safeguard if something nasty got out.  For example, if the vaccine for Pathogen X was only manufactured in the USA, and suddenly, the USA was struggling with a virulent, deadly mutation of Pathogen X, the rest of the world would be scrambling to make their own production facilities.




 There's that old saying armchair generals look at tactics/strategy actual generals look at logistics. 

 The average person doesn't really know anything about that behind the scenes they just want to go and buy whatever but don't really know how things get from A to B.  

 I think Australia is looking at manufacturing vaccines but by the time the can set everything up Covids already going to be either over or they've vaccinated everyone who wants one anyway. 

 The only real advantage is for annual vaccinations with the health systems in Australasia securing supply vs more disruptions

 There's a shortage of shipping containers world wide and shipping. I think we have a few empty containers but other disruptions mean they're piling up in ports. 

 One semi serious joke is it might be better to export empty containers than fill them up. 

 The obvious shortage is PS5, new Xboxes and computer chips but iirc you had trouble buying new appliances for example. 

 Wife works for logistics company and I've worked at poets so gave a rough idea how things work behind the scenes.

 Let's build a factory simple here's a billion dollars. 

Finding a location
Buying the location
Hiring architects
Resource consents
Aquiring the equipment
Shortage of tradespeople
Shortage of materials
Multiple companies involved (probably around 11-12 minimum)
Etc

 Hete they looked at building qurantine facilities eta was 3+ years. So they used motels. Now they're looking at buying motels outright it's not like they're needed for tourism.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Tangentially, I’ve been talking about using empty hotels and office buildings to help with the homeless & immigrant/refugee crises.

Lots of underutilized buildings out there, all over the world.  I mean, has anyone done anything with the abandoned Cuidad Real airport in Spain?


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Tangentially, I’ve been talking about using empty hotels and office buildings to help with the homeless & immigrant/refugee crises.
> 
> Lots of underutilized buildings out there, all over the world.  I mean, has anyone done anything with the abandoned Cuidad Real airport in Spain?




 No idea. I think Top Gear filmed a episode there. They used it for a race track. 

 We're kinda full up building wise. Half a million USD to buy something vaguely nice in most places. Almost double that if you like the "best" cities. 

 Or you go and live in Christchurch only 400-450k usd there. Government officials got predictions severely wrong.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> We're kinda full up building wise. Half a million USD to buy something vaguely nice in most places. Almost double that if you like the "best" cities.




I think he's more talking about real estate that _isn't_ traditional housing.  Like, unused airports, unused office space, and so on.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> I think he's more talking about real estate that _isn't_ traditional housing.  Like, unused airports, unused office space, and so on.




Shortage of all of that as well.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Not on short timescale it cannot.  The mRNA vaccines use new processes that aren't run of the mill chemistry for everyone.  Building the facilities and training up the skills can take years.  While building for the future is excellent, we also have to deal with the world we have at the moment.




This is true with other cases of advanced tech production, too.  I was looking at the run-up time for modern chip scribing facilities and its pretty appalling.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I think he's more talking about real estate that _isn't_ traditional housing.  Like, unused airports, unused office space, and so on.



Yep.

There’s a multi-story hotel that has been empty for something like 25 of the last 30 years.  It reopened as a hotel a decade or so ago, but it quickly closed again. 10+ stories, on a bus route, fenced in doing nothing.  Use eminent domain and use it to house the homeless or similarly disadvantaged people.  Not only do you have lockable, climate controlled rooms with indoor plumbing, those buildings have gyms, business centers, and kitchens.  Those could be used for the services those people will need, all on premises, possibly including jobs or training.

We’ve got all kinds of empty or emptying buildings here, including enclosed shopping malls.  Something like that could become an enclosed condo community- turn the big anchor store duites into things like schools, urgent care clinics, entertainment venues, child care, etc.

For me, the catalyst for the idea came when someone pointed out that a hotel The Beatles had stayed in one trip to Dallas had been converted to a prison.  I’d been in there to talk to clients, and hadn’t a clue.

Then someone else purchased a high-rise office building near downtown Dallas and turned it into an upscale assisted living community 20 or so years ago.


----------



## CapnZapp

Zardnaar said:


> EU and USA manufacture vaccines we don't.
> 
> Government's can block exports or directly or indirectly pressure the manufacturers to supply them first.
> 
> Australia is running ads for vaccinations you can't get while here they think by the end of the year you can get one.
> 
> Other countries need the vaccines more as well. Downside is if delta gets out of control.
> 
> Australia richer than NZ and I think the average Australian household is richer than USA (not GDP per Capita). Better wealth distribution.
> 
> So it's mostly supply issues and perhaps mono vaccine option due to the way healthcare is funded/applied. They selected Pfizer here that's your only option.



I would be much less complacent and more mad at my government than you if I knew my country was just as rich as the US, or the UK, or maybe Sweden... yet vaccine availability was comparable to perhaps Brazil or India (that's just a guess).

So I guess I am looking for answers beyond obvious replies like "supply". Supply was a hot issue in the US or the EU too - but here we are, with the most important half of the population vaccinated.

Your other answers are fine. Still feel much more could have been done and that you're letting your government off the hook too easily. A 10% vaccination rate would from my (fully vaccinated) perspective (I'm 50 years old) be considered a complete failure - not even 90-year olds! - and a huge scandal that ought to force the government out of office.

Oh well. I guess you have (re)learnt the lesson of relying on supply from distant America and Europe (something tells me this isn't the first time you hear of this...)

I'm not saying this to needle more answers out of you. Just wanted to explain why I might have come across as weirdly insistent. I was just having issues calibrating my perspective. Thank you and have a good day!


----------



## CapnZapp

Eltab said:


> It looks like we are going to face animal-to-human transmission of something new every decade or so.



You say it like it's a new phenomenon.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> No idea. I think Top Gear filmed a episode there. They used it for a race track.
> 
> We're kinda full up building wise. Half a million USD to buy something vaguely nice in most places. Almost double that if you like the "best" cities.
> 
> Or you go and live in Christchurch only 400-450k usd there. Government officials got predictions severely wrong.



In Toronto, Canada, with the fact that many who are currently working from home will never return to on-site work, there will soon be a glut of unused office space in the downtown core.


----------



## CapnZapp

Thomas Shey said:


> In some cases its simply impractical, though.  Some things require sufficiently specialized and dedicated facilities that, while there's enough demand for their services to justify their existence, there isn't enough to justify it in every single country.



While that is true, we're neither discussing rocket science nor "every single country". 

Researching the specific vaccine formula might be rocket science, but mass-producing vaccines is not. 

And in this case we're discussing "every single continent" only. Not every single country.

Edit: ninja'd


----------



## CapnZapp

Umbran said:


> Not on short timescale it cannot.  The mRNA vaccines use new processes that aren't run of the mill chemistry for everyone.  Building the facilities and training up the skills can take years.  While building for the future is excellent, we also have to deal with the world we have at the moment.



I believe we are all aware that we're not discussing fixing the current pandemic in this regard, but the next one.

It is sheer neglect that is the reason there isn't a vaccine plant in or near Australia. Maybe it wouldn't have been able to produce mRNA vaccines, but it sure could have produced a vaccine like AstraZeneca.

Heck, even a (very) small country like Sweden is talking about setting up shop. And that's a country _within_ the richest club in the world!

The biggest scandal in the EU is that the UK beat them - a country that just left the EU... To billions of people, coming in the top 3 is an unattainable dream... here coming "dead last" out of that top 3 meant the top EU leadership had to scramble for damage control...


----------



## CapnZapp

Anyhoo...

The biggest news lately is that health officials can't hide their irritation with Pfizer who's already past that first annoying "supply the world with even ONE shot" headache and well into "sell a third shot to the richest 10%" mode... 

Comirnaty was projected to be the best-selling medicine EVER, all categories. No naughty word, as Sherlock would say (if he could devise a way around the word filter, at least)...


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Shortage of all of that as well.




In the US, we are looking at having a lot of it. The pandemic has taught companies that 
1) While it does help for folks to be in the office, they don't need to do it 5 days a week to stay productive.
2) they can save a lot of money if they don't buy office space with the assumption that everyone is always there.

The commercial real estate business is apt to take a hit from this.  Finding alternate uses for the buildings is not a bad idea.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Use eminent domain and use it to house the homeless or similarly disadvantaged people.




Without going too far into politics, I think it's safe to say that the idea of using eminent domain (in the US) for this is going to be messy as all heck.  You'd need to have the government outright purchase it to avoid complications.  Even then, you're guaranteed to get a ton of NIMBY backlash.  It sounds terrible (because it is), but the US has a long history of only wanting these services if they're far away.



Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not kinky do you have lockable,


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> You'd need to have the government outright purchase it to avoid complications.




Um.. that is Eminent Domain.  Eminent Domain requires the government to pay fair market value for the real estate they are taking.  The power is in how the current owner doesn't get a choice in selling.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Deset Gled said:


>



Damn you, AutoCorrect!  (Or my own fat fingers and inattention.)

That “kinky” was supposed to be “only…


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That “kinky” was supposed to be “only…




"Kinky you can prevent forest fires..."

Seems like it works well enough.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Um.. that is Eminent Domain.  Eminent Domain requires the government to pay fair market value for the real estate they are taking.  The power is in how the current owner doesn't get a choice in selling.




 They haven't used that here since the 1970's or 80's. They paid above market value and built new homes for the people effected. 

 I think the last few left had to be dragged off by cops as dynamite was blowing the hills apart to build a dam so their homes were gonna be underwater. 

 They passed the resource management act here 1991 which essentially stops big developers taking land. 

 Downside is it let's the NIMBYs block any development espicially in inner city suburbs. 

 As an added bonus any house built before the 1920's can get heritage protection. 

 Throw in the fact virtually no one (old people mainly) voted in local body elections and we have a lot of councils whose main jobs involve gumming up development, subsidizing things like stadiums and avoid putting up rates and running down infrastructure. 

 Net result is the capital has had erupting sewage pipes, one city had its council sidelined by the central government and appoint commissioners to run the city (on a huge public funds salary of course. Plus expenses). 

 Net result  housing crisis due to 25% population growth since 2004 and average house price approaching a million dollars. I live in the cheap part of the country it's only around 650k so it's all good. . 

 And the Covid bail out side effect poured gasoline on a bonfire in terms of affordable housing. And returning kiwis who decided NZ isn't that bad to live with Covid raging.

 And of course the boomers worked really hard to buy their property 1-3 years seasonal work freehold house.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well apparently Pfizer has confirmed 1.5 million vaccines for August. 

 Goal is vaccinate most by end of the year.


----------



## CapnZapp

I'm sure this has been brought up before but this pandemic reminds me of a cool illustrated space battles book where the story has Terra invaded by mysterious strangers with powerful tech suppression emitters.



Spoiler



Turns out the inexplicable aggression was from a remote human colony that had been afflicted with some kind of terrible fungal plague, and for some reason Terra had unwittingly destroyed their vaccine supply.

If aliens had bombed our Pfizer plants we would strike back too...


----------



## Eltab

CapnZapp said:


> I'm sure this has been brought up before but this pandemic reminds me of a cool illustrated space battles book where the story has Terra invaded by mysterious strangers with powerful tech suppression emitters.
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> Turns out the inexplicable aggression was from a remote human colony that had been afflicted with some kind of terrible fungal plague, and for some reason Terra had unwittingly destroyed their vaccine supply.
> 
> If aliens had bombed our Pfizer plants we would strike back too...



Authored by Stewart Cowley?
IIRC the title is _Great Space Battles_.


----------



## billd91

Deset Gled said:


> Without going too far into politics, I think it's safe to say that the idea of using eminent domain (in the US) for this is going to be messy as all heck.  You'd need to have the government outright purchase it to avoid complications.  Even then, you're guaranteed to get a ton of NIMBY backlash.  It sounds terrible (because it is), but the US has a long history of only wanting these services if they're far away.



The NIMBY issue is going to be a big deal. Ideally, you don’t want too much concentration of these resources because that leads to concentration of the problems and dysfunctions that poverty, dislocation, and chronic homelessness cause. It’s better to spread these resources out into more diverse economic areas with better public services and less stress, which also increases the NIMBY backlash.
But suboptimal is better than utterly lacking. I would just hope that public services would be sufficiently included rather than just packing in people.


----------



## MoonSong

Speaking of unfortunate facts of life. Turns out that not only it is very hard to get a vaccination certificate in my country, there is also a black market where they make counterfeit ones. Yikes, it is hard enough to get vaccinated and prove it while dealing with vaccine doubters and outright antivaxers. Now this very hard to get document is useless because of course the counterfeiters made it useless.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

8 fully vaccinated healthcare workers who went to a Vegas pool party got COVID-19 with mild symptoms - and at least 7 caught the Delta variant, a report said
					

The healthcare workers had symptoms similar to allergies or a cold and chose to get tested, a hospital CEO told the Las Vegas Review-Journal.




					www.yahoo.com
				




Edit: Bright side- as has been oft predicted by the MDs, it is noted that the ones who were fully vaccinated experienced mild symptoms, even though 7 had contracted the Delta variant.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

MoonSong said:


> Speaking of unfortunate facts of life. Turns out that not only it is very hard to get a vaccination certificate in my country, there is also a black market where they make counterfeit ones. Yikes, it is hard enough to get vaccinated and prove it while dealing with vaccine doubters and outright antivaxers. Now this very hard to get document is useless because of course the counterfeiters made it useless.



I’ve seen reports of fake vaccination schemes (usually to redirect the real stuff elsewhere) in India and Brazil.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> Speaking of unfortunate facts of life. Turns out that not only it is very hard to get a vaccination certificate in my country, there is also a black market where they make counterfeit ones. Yikes, it is hard enough to get vaccinated and prove it while dealing with vaccine doubters and outright antivaxers. Now this very hard to get document is useless because of course the counterfeiters made it useless.




 What took Mexico so long? You've been able to buy some real US ones on eBay months ago. 

 Just fill them in yourself.


----------



## CapnZapp

Sweden issues certificates with a QR code, so when the inspector scans it they're sent to the official online record. I'm sure it's possible to register fake entries, but at least it's more than a piece of paper and you're supposed to just take the signature as genuine. (What is it with the ass-backwards infatuation with easily-faked IDs and diplomas in the US? We're not living in the nineteenth century any more!)

If you ask me why the EU isn't having a standardized protocol I have no clue.


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> Sweden issues certificates with a QR code, so when the inspector scans it they're sent to the official online record. I'm sure it's possible to register fake entries, but at least it's more than a piece of paper and you're supposed to just take the signature as genuine. (What is it with the ass-backwards infatuation with easily-faked IDs and diplomas in the US? We're not living in the nineteenth century any more!)
> 
> If you ask me why the EU isn't having a standardized protocol I have no clue.




 Not a bad idea. 

 Won't be able to trust documents.


----------



## MoonSong

CapnZapp said:


> Sweden issues certificates with a QR code, so when the inspector scans it they're sent to the official online record. I'm sure it's possible to register fake entries, but at least it's more than a piece of paper and you're supposed to just take the signature as genuine. (What is it with the ass-backwards infatuation with easily-faked IDs and diplomas in the US? We're not living in the nineteenth century any more!)
> 
> If you ask me why the EU isn't having a standardized protocol I have no clue.



That's the problem, the fake ones pass even That test. They are indistinguishable from the real thing.


----------



## CapnZapp

MoonSong said:


> That's the problem, the fake ones pass even That test. They are indistinguishable from the real thing.



Not sure how to reply.

If you are asserting you know for a fact Swedish "covidbevis.se" have been hacked already I appreciate it. It would be interesting to learn your source though.

Or perchance you completely missed the point? The looks of the document doesn't matter. The document and its QR code could be printed on toilet paper for all anyone's going to care. My whole point why I even brought it up is that US-style easily forged documents is 19th century tech and basically a joke. 

I'm certainly not saying the style of certificate discussed here is bullet-proof but as far as I can tell we instead have a QR code (in your mobile, or on that roll of toilet paper) pointing the officer to an active online government database where the person's vaccination data can be validated, so you'd have to either inject false entries into the official database or spoof an entire site and just hope the officer can't be bothered to certify he's at the right site. Which is complicated by the fact the certificate is only valid for 90 days, then you need to update your document, which (again to the best of my knowledge) means data is pulled from the national health registry, an covid certification entry is created, and you're given a document whose QR code points to it for the benefit of, not you, but the customs officer in the country you're trying to enter.


----------



## MoonSong

CapnZapp said:


> Not sure how to reply.
> 
> If you are asserting you know for a fact Swedish "covidbevis.se" have been hacked already I appreciate it. It would be interesting to learn your source though.
> 
> Or perchance you completely missed the point? The looks of the document doesn't matter. The document and its QR code could be printed on toilet paper for all anyone's going to care. My whole point why I even brought it up is that US-style easily forged documents is 19th century tech and basically a joke.
> 
> I'm certainly not saying the style of certificate discussed here is bullet-proof but as far as I can tell we instead have a QR code (in your mobile, or on that roll of toilet paper) pointing the officer to an active online government database where the person's vaccination data can be validated, so you'd have to either inject false entries into the official database or spoof an entire site and just hope the officer can't be bothered to certify he's at the right site. Which is complicated by the fact the certificate is only valid for 90 days, then you need to update your document, which (again to the best of my knowledge) means data is pulled from the national health registry, an covid certification entry is created, and you're given a document whose QR code points to it for the benefit of, not you, but the customs officer in the country you're trying to enter.



I was talking about my country. We have the same kind of system, with a QR code that connects to a gov. database to verify authenticity. And the fake certificates do it too.


----------



## CapnZapp

MoonSong said:


> I was talking about my country. We have the same kind of system, with a QR code that connects to a gov. database to verify authenticity. And the fake certificates do it too.



Got it.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> I was talking about my country. We have the same kind of system, with a QR code that connects to a gov. database to verify authenticity. And the fake certificates do it too.




 What that means is countries where government databases are not secure will likely join lists of banned countries. 

 Our government had lists of red zone countries where you were not allowed to enter the country full stop unless you're a citizen. 

 I think Brazil, India and 3 other countries were on that list.


----------



## J.Quondam

Seems we've got not just fake covid certs, but also fake covid pills here in the US now.








						Feds arrest CA homeopath for selling COVID pellets, fake CDC vaccine cards
					

Homeopath: "It is like an energy medicine... made from the disease particles themselves."




					arstechnica.com


----------



## Thomas Shey

That had already happened before at least twice as I recall; its just not as big an issue here as some other places.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> What that means is countries where government databases are not secure




Depending on the system you may not need to hack the database.  You may just need someone to have leaked a range of ID numbers that have been set to "vaxxed=true".


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Depending on the system you may not need to hack the database.  You may just need someone to have leaked a range of ID numbers that have been set to "vaxxed=true".




 That's still part of what I mean about secure. 

 If one knows someone or fan bribe the civil service in a widespread fashion it will make travel that much harder I guess.


----------



## Cadence

Politicization of COVID in the US live...

Just heard another parent at summer camp talking on the phone.  "Yeah, we were going to go to New York last April and had tickets for everything.  Then the  Chinese let that virus out of their lab."  (With some hate in his voice.  There was an expletive too, but I don't remember if it was before the nationality or virus).


----------



## J.Quondam

Cadence said:


> Politicization of COVID in the US live...
> 
> Just heard another parent at summer camp talking on the phone.  "Yeah, we were going to go to New York last April and had tickets for everything.  Then the  Chinese let that virus out of their lab."  (With some hate in his voice.  There was an expletive in his voice, but I don't remember if it was before the nationality or virus).



Meanwhile, how many outbreaks have we had here in the US just in the last few weeks amongst the vast unvaxxed masses thanks to parents sending their kids to summer/church camp? I can recall at least three.


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> Meanwhile, how many outbreaks have we had here in the US just in the last few weeks amongst the vast unvaxxed masses thanks to parents sending their kids to summer/church camp? I can recall at least three.




The 4th of July was a couple of weeks ago - just about long enough that spread that weekend will start showing up about now...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Also in the USA…

A friend of ours got vaccinated _despite _2 MDs telling her not to.  Worse, there was just an article in one of the *peer reviewed* pediatric journals that got retracted today because a LOT of pediatricians raised an uproar about blatant misinformation within it.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> The 4th of July was a couple of weeks ago - just about long enough that spread that weekend will start showing up about now...




Which it has been in California at least.


----------



## Cadence

Was happy to see that at least half the folks at an arts supply store and a kitchen utensil/home decorating store had masks the other day.  I wonder if it was higher than some places because most of the customers were female.

At the game shop for the pre-release there were 9 people in the shop, all the adults were vaccinated, they spread out to play, and one sitting across from us put on his mask when they saw my son wearing one.


----------



## Zardnaar

Qurantine system here seems to be holding up vs Delta at least for now. 


 You get a menu and there's a limit if 1 bottle if wine or 4 beers per day. To even get into the qurantine system you need a negative test. 

 You get tested twice while in quarantine so 3 tests total.

 AFAIK they bus you to the qurantine with the military involved.

 The reasonably few vaccines available went to the border workers first. Refusal has lead to some job losses and fines.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Here’s an article from The Atlantic detailing what’s going on in Missouri:









						Delta Is Driving a Wedge Through Missouri
					

For America as a whole, the pandemic might be fading. For some communities, this year will be worse than last.




					www.theatlantic.com
				




Essentially, some of the hospitals are experiencing surges in patient loads comparable to what they did in some of the worst parts of 2020.  Delta is spreading faster contact tracers can work.  It’s like a sequel to a horror movie.

In addition, there was this reality check:



> “I don’t think people get that once you become sick enough to be hospitalized with COVID, the medications and treatments that we have are, quite frankly, not very good,” says Howard Jarvis, the medical director of Cox South’s emergency department. Drugs such as dexamethasone offer only incremental benefits. Monoclonal antibodies are effective only during the disease’s earliest stages. Doctors can give every recommended medication, and patients still have a high chance of dying. The goal should be to stop people from getting sick in the first place.




Things are trending similarly in Arkansas.









						In Undervaccinated Arkansas, Covid Upends Life All Over Again
					

While much of the nation tiptoes toward normalcy, the coronavirus is again swamping hospitals in places like Mountain Home, in a rural county where fewer than one-third of residents are vaccinated.




					www.nytimes.com
				




Hospitalizations have quadrupled since May.

The article notes that several of the patients who have survived hospitalization are still more afraid of the vaccine than the virus.  “It’s still too new.” one said, “It’s like an experiment.”  This after being hospitalized, unable to breathe unassisted.


----------



## Zardnaar

Got a text saying I'm eligible for vaccine and a code plus link. 

 Went to the local health board basically follow the questions by pressing the buttons. 

 Then pick two dates and locations for preferred time and location. 

 11.15 am August 5th. Jab the bastard in she'll be right. Strategically chosen for lunch in town afterwards.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> 11.15 am August 5th. Jab the bastard in she'll be right. Strategically chosen for lunch in town afterwards.



Wise decision!


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Wise decision!




 Normally yeah after this week I think I want home cooked for the next month. 

 Last time got a filling at the dentist I skipped the pain relief on a filling so I could have lunch afterwards. The Dentist was about 50 yards from an Arabic restaurant. 

 I stand by my decision.


----------



## AnotherGuy

CapnZapp said:


> I believe we are all aware that we're not discussing fixing the current pandemic in this regard, but the next one.
> 
> It is sheer neglect that is the reason there isn't a vaccine plant in or near Australia. Maybe it wouldn't have been able to produce mRNA vaccines, but it sure could have produced a vaccine like AstraZeneca.
> 
> Heck, even a (very) small country like Sweden is talking about setting up shop. And that's a country _within_ the richest club in the world!
> 
> The biggest scandal in the EU is that the UK beat them - a country that just left the EU... To billions of people, coming in the top 3 is an unattainable dream... here coming "dead last" out of that top 3 meant the top EU leadership had to scramble for damage control...




Actually there is an Australian vaccine in the works - it is just not getting the necessary funding and the same level of blanket immunity the oligarch-companies like the big 4 are being blessed with. There are a lot of politics behind the scenes the general public are not privy to.


----------



## Zardnaar

Oops. 









						Covid: Is China's vaccine success waning in Asia?
					

Thailand and Indonesia's switch to other Covid jabs has raised questions about Chinese vaccines.



					www.bbc.com
				




  Chinese vaccines not so effective in SEA. No real surprise. 

 The Cuban ones look more effective for the cheaper options.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Zardnaar said:


> Chinese vaccines not so effective in SEA. No real surprise.



This seems mildly inappropriate...


----------



## Zardnaar

AnotherGuy said:


> This seems mildly inappropriate...




 They've had low efficiency rates for months. It's not exactly new. 

Some tested have had 0% efficiency completely useless.

 Last few weeks








						Six vaccinated countries have high Covid infection rates. Five of them rely on Chinese vaccines
					

Vaccines made in China face rising doubts about their efficacy, compounded by a lack of data on their protection against the more transmissible delta variant.




					www.google.com
				












						1.4 billion doses later, China warms to using mRNA COVID vaccines
					

After long promoting their local options, China may finally approve the BioNTech jab.




					www.google.com
				












						Explainer: Are Chinese COVID-19 shots effective against the Delta variant?
					

Many countries from China to Indonesia and Brazil rely heavily on Chinese vaccines to inoculate their people against COVID-19, but there are growing concerns about whether they provide enough protection against the Delta variant, first identified in India.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## J.Quondam

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The article notes that several of the patients who have survived hospitalization are still more afraid of the vaccine than the virus. “It’s still too new.” one said, “It’s like an experiment.” This after being hospitalized, unable to breathe unassisted.



My  are like this, too.

_"I'm just waiting for more information." _​_"What information specifically are you waiting for?"_​_"Well, umm. . . ."_​
What they're waiting for is "approval" from the pundits of their tribe. The stupidity of their politics is just sickening, scary, and infuriating.


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> What they're waiting for is "approval" from the pundits of their tribe.




Maybe.  For some (I hope not too high) number it may be too late for that.  They've been so steeped in fear and distrust that even approval won't move them.


----------



## J.Quondam

Umbran said:


> Maybe.  For some (I hope not too high) number it may be too late for that.  They've been so steeped in fear and distrust that even approval won't move them.



I hope you're wrong, but I fear you're right. My father always "knows better" than the experts when their advice conflicts with his worldview. If covid doesn't get him, Dunning-Kruger might.


----------



## CapnZapp

You could always supply them with the "information" that is descriptions on what it is like to die from Covid.

Covid is a horrible nasty disease and it turns your final days and weeks into a nightmare akin to drowning except it takes days and not minutes.

Even the worst imaginable side effect* from a vaccine is far preferable to succumbing from Covid.

Or even surviving serious Covid.

*) And yes, that includes getting a fatal allergic reaction.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Maybe.  For some (I hope not too high) number it may be too late for that.  They've been so steeped in fear and distrust that even approval won't move them.



Not only that, but they have overlooked that most of those warning them against vaccines_ have themselves been vaccinated._

Which doesn’t surprise me.  In classic “there’s nothing new under the sun”, an article I read months ago pointing out parallels between prior pandemics and this one, there was an MD who got vaccinated against whatever it was, and kept publishing Op-Eds about the dangers of vaccinations to scare people away from them.

I would love to learn what kind of mind drives that kind of mendacity.


----------



## Deset Gled

J.Quondam said:


> My parents here in Texas are like this, too.




Sorry to hear you're fighting that battle.  It sucks.

I have a friend who's a nurse.  She was one of the first to get the vax in the state.  Meanwhile, her parents haven't been vaccinated, and own a restaurant.  Over the course of lockdown she had to cut her kids off from their grandparents because of concerns about quarantine procedures, which lead to related political fights, family members blocking each other on social media, and a lot of hurt feelings.  It was complicated and painful.  The relationship is still strained.  But her parents never relented; they kept the restaurant open, and they never got the vax.

Late last week, her mother was hospitalized with COVID (might be a variant, I'm not sure).  There's no amount of "I told you so" that feels comforting when a person you love could die.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I would love to learn what kind of mind drives that kind of mendacity.




A mind with some form of vested interest, or course.  Hypocrisy comes easy for folks who can make money, fame, or political hay out of the contention.


----------



## J.Quondam

Deset Gled said:


> Sorry to hear you're fighting that battle.  It sucks.
> 
> I have a friend who's a nurse.  She was one of the first to get the vax in the state.  Meanwhile, her parents haven't been vaccinated, and own a restaurant.  Over the course of lockdown she had to cut her kids off from their grandparents because of concerns about quarantine procedures, which lead to related political fights, family members blocking each other on social media, and a lot of hurt feelings.  It was complicated and painful.  The relationship is still strained.  But her parents never relented; they kept the restaurant open, and they never got the vax.
> 
> Late last week, her mother was hospitalized with COVID (might be a variant, I'm not sure).  There's no amount of "I told you so" that feels comforting when a person you love could die.



That's so sad. It's awful that so many families and friendships are being torn up by this, and largely because of the greed and cynicism of the predators spewing the disinformation.
All  I can do, I suppose, is try not to be too angry at loved ones, and just be there for them if worse comes to worst. And hopefully others in the same boat can find their own way through it, as well.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> A mind with some form of vested interest, or course.  Hypocrisy comes easy for folks who can make money, fame, or political hay out of the contention.



True, and I know that in general.

But when I see one like the MD I mentioned- someone who not only knows the dangers of the contagion, the promise of the vaccines, AND have taken an oath to act in the public interest while doing no harm- it’s hard to divine why they’d act in such a way.  

I mean, op-ed pieces don’t pay.  Dead patients don’t book appointments.  Etc.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> But when I see one like the MD I mentioned- someone who not only knows the dangers of the contagion, the promise of the vaccines, AND have taken an oath to act in the public interest while doing no harm- it’s hard to divine why they’d act in such a way.
> 
> I mean, op-ed pieces don’t pay.  Dead patients don’t book appointments.  Etc.




I could only guess.  But down by you, personal emotional investment in the political haymaking seems a likely possibility.


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> True, and I know that in general.
> 
> But when I see one like the MD I mentioned- someone who not only knows the dangers of the contagion, the promise of the vaccines, AND have taken an oath to act in the public interest while doing no harm- it’s hard to divine why they’d act in such a way.
> 
> I mean, op-ed pieces don’t pay.  Dead patients don’t book appointments.  Etc.



No, but their homeopathic side-businesses might pay.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

billd91 said:


> No, but their homeopathic side-businesses might pay.



I had not considered the quackery side-hustle as a possibility.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Not only that, but they have overlooked that most of those warning them against vaccines_ have themselves been vaccinated._
> 
> Which doesn’t surprise me.  In classic “there’s nothing new under the sun”, an article I read months ago pointing out parallels between prior pandemics and this one, there was an MD who got vaccinated against whatever it was, and kept publishing Op-Eds about the dangers of vaccinations to scare people away from them.
> 
> I would love to learn what kind of mind drives that kind of mendacity.This afternoon CNN talking heads have been beside themselves, reporting over the revelations that Fox Network personnel have "vaccine passports"


----------



## Ryujin

billd91 said:


> No, but their homeopathic side-businesses might pay.



And you can likely make more as a traveling lecturer to the unwashed masses, than you can as a second rate GP. It's sad but there are evil people in every walk of life, and some are in positions to speak with some authority on a subject, in a way that can do a lot of harm.


----------



## Zardnaar

Damn from the sounds of it I could make my own vaccine. Instead of Sputnik V I'll call it Baltika 7. You can take it orally.




  Possible side effects include nausea and headaches. It's Russian. 

 I'll name my business Quack McQuacker from Scamville NZ.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hey!  Baltika is decent enough beer!

Waitaminit…using Baltika to combat Corona?  GENIUS!


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Hey!  Baltika is decent enough beer!
> 
> Waitaminit…using Baltika to combat Corona?  GENIUS!




 Scary thing is it's not the worst treatment out there. 

 In Nigeria or Kongo a faith healer is selling a Covid cure-all laced with petrol. Well it gets prescribed for everything really.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Good news, bad news:








						What Rising Covid Cases Could Mean for Investors
					

The economic impact could be blunted, though the true scope of this wave remains to be see.




					www.barrons.com
				




The UK is reporting a higher percentage of breakthrough infections in the current wave of cases, mostly due to Delta.  However, much as like elsewhere, the breakthrough cases are presenting with milder symptoms and almost no hospitalizations.


> U.K. government scientists say that a single vaccine dose is 35% effective at protecting against all symptomatic disease caused by the Delta variant, and two doses are 79% effective. Efficacy against hospitalization is far higher, at 96% after two doses.
> 
> Taken together, that suggests that vaccinated people may be contracting the virus in growing numbers, though they are far less likely to experience the worst outcomes from the disease. What’s more, they may be less likely to even know they’re infected.
> That could have economic implications as the Delta-induced wave spreads to the U.S.




It was noted by one researcher interviewed for the article that because of the milder symptoms of breakthrough cases, they expect C19 cases are being more undercounted than before- 1 in 10-20 being counted as opposed to 1 in 3-4.  Those people may continue to work, shop, etc. normally despite being infected: 


> That could indicate that this wave may have a more limited economic effect than earlier waves of the virus, as the U.S. economy shifts to a reality in which Covid-19 in a constant, low-level threat.
> In some parts of the U.S., however, where vaccination rates are low, this wave may be as bad or worse as any other. In Arkansas, for example, where only 35% of the population is fully vaccinated, hospitalizations are up 77%.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Good news, bad news:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What Rising Covid Cases Could Mean for Investors
> 
> 
> The economic impact could be blunted, though the true scope of this wave remains to be see.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.barrons.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The UK is reporting a higher percentage of breakthrough infections in the current wave of cases, mostly due to Delta.  However, much as like elsewhere, the breakthrough cases are presenting with milder symptoms and almost no hospitalizations.
> 
> 
> It was noted by one researcher interviewed for the article that because of the milder symptoms of breakthrough cases, they expect C19 cases are being more undercounted than before- 1 in 10-20 being counted as opposed to 1 in 3-4.  Those people may continue to work, shop, etc. normally despite being infected:




 Kind of good news. Viruses seem to get less deadly via mutations. 

 The less deadly more contagious variants are best from an evolutionary pov.


----------



## CapnZapp

Zardnaar said:


> Kind of good news. Viruses seem to get less deadly via mutations.
> 
> The less deadly more contagious variants are best from an evolutionary pov.



That may be true but can't be read from the quoted reports.

That Delta isn't likely to kill the fully vaccinated does not mean it is less lethal.

In fact, as I understand it is not just more contagious (which all by itself leads to more deaths). It actually is more aggressive. 

So much so that some researchers have suggested it should be understood as a new separate pandemic, instead of "just another wave" of COVID-19.

We're just lucky the virus made the same mistake as most D&D villains: attacking with lower-leveled troops first, so the heroes have just enough time to level up before the final showdown.

(Yes that was inexcusably flippant, but we ARE on a RPG board after all...)


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> That may be true but can't be read from the quoted reports.
> 
> That Delta isn't likely to kill the fully vaccinated does not mean it is less lethal.
> 
> In fact, as I understand it is not just more contagious (which all by itself leads to more deaths). It actually is more aggressive.
> 
> So much so that some researchers have suggested it should be understood as a new separate pandemic, instead of "just another wave" of COVID-19.
> 
> We're just lucky the virus made the same mistake as most D&D villains: attacking with lower-leveled troops first, so the heroes have just enough time to level up before the final showdown.
> 
> (Yes that was inexcusably flippant, but we ARE on a RPG board after all...)




 Understandable. I'm assuming the pandemic will last 3 years or so and Covid will mutate to something Les dangerous. 

 Kinda like the moden flubis the remnants of the  last pandemic from 1917-20.

 Some of the experts here are saying don't expect a return to the old normal for 5 years.


----------



## CapnZapp

Yeah, well, were not there yet.

That might happen.

Then again, it might not.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> That may be true but can't be read from the quoted reports.




And, we wouldn't expect it to, either.  That viruses tend to become less deadly is an _evolutionary_ phenomenon.  It happens over evolutionary timescales - decades, centuries, and millennia.  It is not a thing that happens over a year.



CapnZapp said:


> That Delta isn't likely to kill the fully vaccinated does not mean it is less lethal.
> 
> In fact, as I understand it is not just more contagious (which all by itself leads to more deaths). It actually is more aggressive.




I don't think "aggressive" is a well-defined biological term in this context.  

The Delta variant has a higher rate of transmission than previous strains.  Preliminary research I've read suggests this is not due to some improvement in spike proteins or the like.  Apparently, the Delta variant does this by keeping itself physically the same, but _reproducing more quickly_ in early parts of the infection.  We are all aware that with covid-19, a person can be infectious for a few days before they show symptoms.  Apparently, for Delta, the viral load a person can carry in their nasal passages during that asymptomatic period is up to a _thousand times higher_ than with previous strains.  During this early period, when people with Delta talk, sing, cough, or sneeze, the droplets emitted are carrying a much larger dose of virus, making infecting someone else more likely.

This explains why the disease symptoms do not seem to be more deadly, and why the vaccines still work.  Delta has changed its reproductive pattern, but not changed much else.


----------



## Zardnaar

First time since pandemic started a military ship has visited. 

 They're letting the Canadians skip qurantine. They're vaccinated and have been at sea for 17 days. 









						'Risk is being minimised' - Canadian navy crew allowed shore leave
					

The navy says it is safe to allow shore leave for more than 250 sailors from a visiting Canadian navy frigate without having to go through managed isolation.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Can't see to many nations allowed to do that outside of the dominion's.


----------



## Zardnaar

Travel bubble popped. For 8 weeks.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/07/23/travel-suspended-new-zealand-australia-delta/
		


 Last month or so Aussies been struggling with rising case numbers. Delta variant.

Come home in the next week is the advice for stranded travellers.

 Apparently they have some AZ vaccines then switched to Pfizer but didn't secure a supply of Pfizer and mixed messaging.  Eg telling people to go get vaccinated when none are available.


----------



## GreyLord

I found this humorous but relevant.


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> True, and I know that in general.
> 
> But when I see one like the MD I mentioned- someone who not only knows the dangers of the contagion, the promise of the vaccines, AND have taken an oath to act in the public interest while doing no harm- it’s hard to divine why they’d act in such a way.
> 
> *I mean, op-ed pieces don’t pay.  Dead patients don’t book appointments.  Etc.*



They seem to be realizing that.  Hannity pled for people to get the vaccine, but then Carlson came on and said don't do it.  Another FOX show had one host saying get the vaccine and gave not dying as a good reason to do it and then the guy next to her saying something, "But it's their choice."  FOX itself requires all of its workers to be vaccinated.  At least some of them are turning.


----------



## J.Quondam

Maxperson said:


> They seem to be realizing that.  Hannity pled for people to get the vaccine, but then Carlson came on and said don't do it.  Another FOX show had one host saying get the vaccine and gave not dying as a good reason to do it and then the guy next to her saying something, "But it's their choice."  FOX itself requires all of its workers to be vaccinated.  At least some of them are turning.



Well, at least now I understand why so many folks say, _"It's all so confusing, I just don't know who to believe!"_
Of course, they never blame their media bubbles for that confusion.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> They seem to be realizing that.  Hannity pled for people to get the vaccine, but then Carlson came on and said don't do it.  Another FOX show had one host saying get the vaccine and gave not dying as a good reason to do it and then the guy next to her saying something, "But it's their choice."  FOX itself requires all of its workers to be vaccinated.  At least some of them are turning.




They are an interesting case.

Fox already won the case that no reasonable person could take Tucker Carlson seriously.  So, he can continue blathering nonsense and is basically going to be untouchable.  That argument probably won't hold for the rest of the organization, though.

We've been told, just before their about-face, there was some discussion between the White House and Fox News.  We can only imagine what that contained.  

What FOX does is covered by First Amendment rights (or enough that government intervention would be a minefield).  However, that still leaves them civil liability to consider.  Informing FOX of the models of future progress of the pandemic.... 

"We aren't going to touch you.  But we are pretty sure that someone in the next hundred thousand or more deaths can make a good case you are culplable... and we will not lift a finger to stop the class action suit that results," might be very convincing.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Also, enough of their followers might wake up and/or die that it begins to affect their bottom line.  By which I mean, Fox, the GOP and the states themselves.

Dead farmers don’t farm, they don’t vote, don’t watch Fox/OAN/NewsMax, and they don’t get counted in the census.  If that isn’t obvious, Missouri is in the process of positioning itself to be an example to the rest.

I mean, imagine the GOP trying to explain how they not only lost certain elections, but also had some of their congressional seats evaporate due to population decline.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Also, enough of their followers might wake up and/or die that it begins to affect their bottom line.




Huh.  I hadn't thought of that.  Some of the states at risk are rural, with low populations, such that loss of a statistically relevant number of voters is a possibility.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Huh.  I hadn't thought of that.  Some of the states at risk are rural, with low populations, such that loss of a statistically relevant number of voters is a possibility.



I'm not sure that this is likely to happen. I live in an extremely rural and conservative county in Washington State that only makes up about 3% of the state, population-wise, but we've had around 1/12th of all the Covid-19 deaths in the state (a little under 500 deaths in the county, a little over 6,000 deaths in the state), and our vaccination rate is slowing down a ton and seems to be levelling off at about 50.5% of the population here. We're also mostly opened up.

In a county that's population is over 250,000, I don't think that 500 deaths is going to affect many election results, especially since the 500ish people that died are almost definitely a mixture of Republican and Democratic voters.

It may be different in some other parts of the country, and as less and less people get vaccinated, Conservative deaths from the pandemic are likely to rise, but I don't see it becoming anywhere near the levels that would be required to make any significant population-based political difference, and even if it did, I don't see Fox and similar networks changing their "gameplan" anytime soon.

I feel the need to point out that I don't wish harm on anyone, regardless of their political leanings. I'm simply more able/"comfortable" (that's not really the right word, but I'm not sure what is) than most people are to get into the "cold, hard numbers and facts of death". If I could prevent these deaths from happening, I would. Sorry if this seems a bit callous.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> Huh.  I hadn't thought of that.  Some of the states at risk are rural, with low populations, such that loss of a statistically relevant number of voters is a possibility.



My gaming group was discussing it last night and that was the leading theory for the change of heart that some of those at FOX are experiencing.


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> My gaming group was discussing it last night and that was the leading theory for the change of heart that some of those at FOX are experiencing.




 My theory is the behind the scene executives aren't totally crazy and Murdoch himself is old. 

 His kids influence benind the scenes.

 Threats of lawsuits and advertising as well.


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> Huh.  I hadn't thought of that.  Some of the states at risk are rural, with low populations, such that loss of a statistically relevant number of voters is a possibility.



It's going to take another 10 years before that's felt with the next census, though. That might as well be never for the short term focus that I expect will apply.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Certainly it’s a long term and unlikely possibility, but with the perfect storm…

Missouri hasn’t hit 35% vaccination as a state, as I recall.  The counties being hit gardesare on the lower end of that scale.

Delta is hitting Missouri hard- some of the hospitals in those rural counties are already turning patients away.

Masking & vaccinations have been so politicized, even some people who have survived a hospitalization are refusing the safety measures because “it’s what THEY want”.

All of which could lead to a nasty domino effect as the pandemic drags on and sick people have to be transported farther and farther to receive treatment.


----------



## J.Quondam

billd91 said:


> It's going to take another 10 years before that's felt with the next census, though. That might as well be never for the short term focus that I expect will apply.



I've got no idea if those deaths will actually prove to statistically significant for turnout numbers, but the timing _does_ coincide with 2020-based redistricting which is happening now. 
I suppose it _might_ potentially have an effect on "cracking" part of "packing and cracking" tactics to spread out voters of different political stripes?


----------



## Zardnaar

Can insurance companies refuse to pay for treatment if you refuse vaccinations?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Can insurance companies refuse to pay for treatment if you refuse vaccinations?



AFAIK, no.


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I'm not sure that this is likely to happen.




Well, North Dakota and South Dakota have abotu _one tenth_ the population of Washington State, and thus are rather more susceptible to statistical issues.

But, no, outright loss by population reduction removing voters is unlikely, I admit.

Loss of elections by, "Lots of our people died, and we blame you for it," is more plausible.  While Danny does raise examples of folks who get covid and die, denying the disease to the grave, I don't think that's the typical response.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> It's going to take another 10 years before that's felt with the next census, though. That might as well be never for the short term focus that I expect will apply.




No, I'm not talking about census-driven allotment of seats in Congress by population.  I'm talking about people who are anti-vax just losing elections because they are seen as responsible for people dying.  Up until now, folks could deny that the vaccines worked.  That may well become an untenable position.

And that's all I'll say on the politics angle here.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Well, North Dakota and South Dakota have abotu _one tenth_ the population of Washington State, and thus are rather more susceptible to statistical issues.
> 
> But, no, outright loss by population reduction removing voters is unlikely, I admit.
> 
> Loss of elections by, "Lots of our people died, and we blame you for it," is more plausible.  While Danny does raise examples of folks who get covid and die, denying the disease to the grave, I don't think that's the typical response.




 Favorite one I've seen was a series of tweets over 6 weeks.

1. Mocks vaccines

2. Mocks Covid.

3. I've caught Covid due to preexisting breathing problems had to have conversation about what to do if I go on a ventilator.

4. (different person) I regret to inform everyone XYZ has passed away.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yeah, my point about elections was twofold:

1) losses due to people reactions negatively to the way the GOP handled C19 (and other issues)

2) a possible long term consequence of states losing of seats in congress due to actual population loss.

The second is dependent on factors like proximity of a state to the upper or lower bounds of how seats are calculated, how many people they lose to deaths, how long the pandemic ravages those less-protected regions, as well as consequences of population migration.

That’s a LOT of variables.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yeah, my point about elections was twofold:
> 
> 1) losses due to people reactions negatively to the way the GOP handled C19 (and other issues)
> 
> 2) a possible long term consequence of states losing of seats in congress due to actual population loss.
> 
> The second is dependent on factors like proximity of a state to the upper or lower bounds of how seats are calculated, how many people they lose to deaths, how long the pandemic ravages those less-protected regions, as well as consequences of population migration.
> 
> That’s a LOT of variables.




Article over here was saying it's deliberate. 

 Trash the economy and in 2022...... 

  It's not going to kill enough voters in the "right" places being morbid. No not advocating just saying. 

 And in other countries they won't be going to the polls anytime soon eg Australia and UK. 

 Tldr think you can argue it either way. The Covid election thing caused a landslide here last year but it's going to vary by country and when the punters go to the polls.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> Huh.  I hadn't thought of that.  Some of the states at risk are rural, with low populations, such that loss of a statistically relevant number of voters is a possibility.



Depends on where the cases actually are.  We saw in Los Angeles, the Sheriff announced he was not going to persecute the restaurants any more - the next weekend his officers busted a block party with almost 1/3 of the partygoers COVID-positive.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

BTW, I wasn’t exaggerating:


----------



## Zardnaar

Didn't think you were.


----------



## Zardnaar

Anti lockdown protests in Australia. 









						Australia Covid: Arrests at anti-lockdown protests
					

Thousands take to the streets in Sydney, with further protests in Melbourne and Brisbane.



					www.bbc.com
				




About half the country is locked down. Sydney has spent 4 weeks in lockdown and cases are still rising.
 Sydney population around 5 million iirc.


----------



## MoonSong

Dannyalcatraz said:


> AFAIK, no.



But they could bump the premiums?


----------



## Maxperson

Eltab said:


> Depends on where the cases actually are.  We saw in Los Angeles, the Sheriff announced he was not going to persecute the restaurants any more - the next weekend his officers busted a block party with almost 1/3 of the partygoers COVID-positive.



I live in Los Angeles as well.  That was more posturing than anything else. It's the City/County that sends inspectors to see if people are violating and issue fines, not the Sheriff.


----------



## Umbran

MoonSong said:


> But they could bump the premiums?




That's probably not a good precedent to set.  Health insurance in the US is already not friendly to the consumers.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> That's probably not a good precedent to set.  Health insurance in the US is already not friendly to the consumers.



And there'd be the problem of having to differentiate between people who _don't want_ to get vaccinated, and the ones that _can't _get vaccinated due to health issues.


----------



## Ryujin

AcererakTriple6 said:


> And there'd be the problem of having to differentiate between people who _don't want_ to get vaccinated, and the ones that _can't _get vaccinated due to health issues.



And the insurance companies already don't like those people with other health problems, so likely wouldn't care to differentiate.


----------



## Zardnaar

AcererakTriple6 said:


> And there'd be the problem of having to differentiate between people who _don't want_ to get vaccinated, and the ones that _can't _get vaccinated due to health issues.




 My theory was Covid must be costing the insurance companies a bomb so they would be lobbying and/or trying to find out how to avoid paying out. 

 Eg add a clause to your policy "if you're unvaccinated without a medical reason they won't pay for treatment".


----------



## Umbran

AcererakTriple6 said:


> And there'd be the problem of having to differentiate between people who _don't want_ to get vaccinated, and the ones that _can't _get vaccinated due to health issues.




Eh.  Health insurance companies have to keep that kind of information around all the time, so that's not the real barrier.

Not setting a precedent for them to make you pay more is the barrier we _want_ to have there.  Especially because, and I cannot emphasize this enough, you're basically saying that, while you were stupid, we may force you to not have health insurance over this.  Which means that if _something else_ happens to you, you may lose your house, or even your life.  No, not doing that.  Keep the moral high ground.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The dominoes are starting to fall in rural Florida.









						Florida tops the nation in new COVID cases. As they spike in its rural Big Bend, many still fear the vaccine more.
					

As new COVID cases in Florida surge, residents in its rural Big Bend, where vaccination rates are extremely low, are quickly falling ill.




					www.yahoo.com
				





> Peddie and other paramedics often must transport patients to larger, better equipped hospitals. The closest is an hour-drive away, in the state capital, Tallahassee. A worsening or prolonged surge could further strap the counties' one small hospital and emergency staff.



Several of the counties mentioned have vax rates under 30%, and have 1-2 ambulances serving a single hospital.  If things get out of control, collapse is a real possibility.  They have almost no room for error.


----------



## GreyLord

Umbran said:


> Eh.  Health insurance companies have to keep that kind of information around all the time, so that's not the real barrier.
> 
> Not setting a precedent for them to make you pay more is the barrier we _want_ to have there.  Especially because, and I cannot emphasize this enough, you're basically saying that, while you were stupid, we may force you to not have health insurance over this.  Which means that if _something else_ happens to you, you may lose your house, or even your life.  No, not doing that.  Keep the moral high ground.




Part of it is that the rest of us who have been doing what we should are SOOOO extremely tired of those who flaunt denial in our face.

Insurance companies may hesitate to cover you if you murder someone else and get hurt in the process, or if you purposefully expose yourself to a live volcano and jump into the lava, or if you jump off tall buildings in a single bound and fall flat on the ground and manage to survive.

They raise premiums if you smoke, if you drink, if you do other things like that (or have in the past).  Using those as precedence, and as this pandemic is far more widespread and there is a proven way (right now with the variant that are prevalent at least) to help avoid it...not sure what the excuse really is NOT to raise premiums or refuse to pay out for those who are purposefully endangering theirs and everyone else's health.


----------



## GreyLord

GreyLord said:


> Part of it is that the rest of us who have been doing what we should are SOOOO extremely tired of those who flaunt denial in our face.
> 
> Insurance companies may hesitate to cover you if you murder someone else and get hurt in the process, or if you purposefully expose yourself to a live volcano and jump into the lava trying to also splash it on anyone else nearby for no other reason than you thought it would be fun, or if you jump off tall buildings in a single bound and fall flat on the ground and manage to survive.
> 
> They raise premiums if you smoke, if you drink, if you do other things like that (or have in the past).  Using those as precedence, and as this pandemic is far more widespread and there is a proven way (right now with the variant that are prevalent at least) to help avoid it...not sure what the excuse really is NOT to raise premiums or refuse to pay out for those who are purposefully endangering theirs and everyone else's health.


----------



## Zardnaar

LA man who mocked Covid-19 vaccines dies of virus
					

Stephen Harmon, who opposed getting vaccinated, has died after a month-long struggle with the virus.



					www.bbc.com
				




 Man mocking Covid.

 Australia anti lockdown protests. Man punched a police horse. The horse bit him and he's been charged with animal cruelty. 

 5000 people contacted police identifying the protesters as well. 


 Horse is ok and recieved gifts.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Australia anti lockdown protests. Man punched a police horse. The horse bit him and he's been charged with animal cruelty.




Why’d they charge the horse?  He was just defending himself.  And is it really animal cruelty if a human gets bitten?


> Horse is ok and recieved gifts.




Ohhhh…that’s very different.  Nevermind.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Why’d they charge the horse?  He was just defending himself.  And us it really animal cruelty if a human gets bitten?
> 
> 
> Ohhhh…that’s very different.  Nevermind.




Video showed it. He punched the horse then later on his fingers got bitten. Around the 1:00 mark.

 Main thing though. Horse is ok don't panic.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> My theory was Covid must be costing the insurance companies a bomb so they would be lobbying and/or trying to find out how to avoid paying out.
> 
> Eg add a clause to your policy "if you're unvaccinated without a medical reason they won't pay for treatment".



At a guess, the costs to fight this in court would be astronomical.  Because you KNOW the second that an insurance company tried to do it, it would be up before the courts in an instant.  Between the actual costs of fighting the case, and the social costs, I imagine that most insurance companies would rather just not jump into that pool right now.

Fun fact - 80% of the US olympic team was vaccinated.  20% weren't and they have already had one case resulting in the Gymnastics team leaving the olympic village and getting a hotel nearby.  None of these people had to quarantine.  

I wonder what the percentages are on other teams.


----------



## Imaculata

This mass stupidity is truly astounding. Almost every doctor in the world is telling us to take the virus serious and get vaccinated, and yet there are still huge crowds of people who think they know better. That guy in the video who recovered from covid, and yet still refuses to get the vaccine, is especially maddening. It makes you want to reach through the screen and smack some sense into him.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> This mass stupidity is truly astounding. Almost every doctor in the world is telling us to take the virus serious and get vaccinated, and yet there are still huge crowds of people who think they know better. That guy in the video who recovered from covid, and yet still refuses to get the vaccine, is especially maddening. It makes you want to reach through the screen and smack some sense into him.




 Yep 3500 out of 5 million. 









						Sydney anti-lockdown protest chaos as NSW Covid-19 crisis deteriorates
					

Thousands of anti-lockdown protesters breached Covid-19 restrictions and gathered in Sydney's CBD, on the same day a record 163 new infections were announced in the state.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Not sure if the Aussie set the record with a 3 month lockdown of a 5 million person city outside of an authoritarian state. 

 But it's gonna be harder and harder to lockdown as they become more frequent. 

 And most countries don't bother anymore.


----------



## Greg K

Maxperson said:


> My gaming group was discussing it last night and that was the leading theory for the change of heart that some of those at FOX are experiencing.



I was speculating on this too with some people just the other day.


----------



## Zardnaar

Vietnam 3000 cases in a year. 90000 since April. Going into lockdown.


----------



## J.Quondam

Imaculata said:


> This mass stupidity is truly astounding. Almost every doctor in the world is telling us to take the virus serious and get vaccinated, and yet there are still huge crowds of people who think they know better. That guy in the video who recovered from covid, and yet still refuses to get the vaccine, is especially maddening. It makes you want to reach through the screen and smack some sense into him.




Well...









						Large study finds COVID-19 is linked to a substantial deficit in intelligence
					

People who have recovered from COVID-19 tend to score significantly lower on an intelligence test compared to those who have not contracted the virus, ...




					www.psypost.org


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> Part of it is that the rest of us who have been doing what we should are SOOOO extremely tired of those who flaunt denial in our face.




I understand that.  I am tired too.

But, vengeance is not a valid public policy.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I understand that.  I am tired too.
> 
> But, vengeance is not a valid public policy.



But…but...but…it worked in ROME!


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> But…but...but…it worked in ROME!



 Well they kept things ticking over for hundreds of years up to two millennium depending on how you count it. 

 Looks like we gonna screw it up in 2-300 years. There's a whiff of the 4th century going on wonder if 410 is to far away. 

 I've been practicing my latin. Nova Romanum Imperium Zealandia.


----------



## Maxperson

J.Quondam said:


> Well...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Large study finds COVID-19 is linked to a substantial deficit in intelligence
> 
> 
> People who have recovered from COVID-19 tend to score significantly lower on an intelligence test compared to those who have not contracted the virus, ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.psypost.org



It does cause brain damage, so that makes sense.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Maxperson said:


> It does cause brain damage, so that makes sense.



Exactly the kind of thing virologists were worried about when the first reports of loss of taste & smell surfaced.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Exactly the kind of thing virologists were worried about when the first reports of loss of taste & smell surfaced.



And exactly why I facepalm every single time I hear someone say "young people don't even get _that _sick! Why does it matter if they catch Covid-19!?!?".


----------



## J.Quondam

Maxperson said:


> It does cause brain damage, so that makes sense.



And now that vaccines are widely available in the US, the dumb anti-vaxxers are at increased risk of becoming even dumber.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

J.Quondam said:


> And now that vaccines are widely available in the US, the dumb anti-vaxxers are at increased risk of becoming even dumber.



Which seems nearly impossible to me. How can it get dumber than "vaccines shed and make women near then infertile!!!"? (I'm going to regret asking this in the future, aren't I?)


----------



## Maxperson

J.Quondam said:


> And now that vaccines are widely available in the US, the dumb anti-vaxxers are at increased risk of becoming even dumber.



Honestly, if it wasn't for the risk of the virus mutating in one of them and becoming a threat to me and mine, I wouldn't care if they Darwin themselves or make themselves dumber.  Their stupidity poses a significant and unacceptable risk to the rest of us, though, so something has to change.


----------



## Maxperson

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Which seems nearly impossible to me. How can it get dumber than "vaccines shed and make women near then infertile!!!"? (I'm going to regret asking this in the future, aren't I?)



Hah!  When I got my vaccine I had a friend who jokingly told me that he was worried about the microchips and asked me if I got 5G yet.  I laughed and told him no, but I had been kidnapped by aliens 3 times.


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> Hah!  When I got my vaccine I had a friend who jokingly told me that he was worried about the microchips and asked me if I got 5G yet.  I laughed and told him no, but I had been kidnapped by aliens 3 times.




 I want those vaccines with the microchips. Government's paying for them get enough free iPhone right? 

 Then I can let everyone online know I have an iphone.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Maxperson said:


> Hah!  When I got my vaccine I had a friend who jokingly told me that he was worried about the microchips and asked me if I got 5G yet.  I laughed and told him no, but I had been kidnapped by aliens 3 times.



In a world where aliens did exist and did regularly kidnap people (and then release them for some reason), that would actually be semi-believable. One guy was struck by lightning 7 times in his life in the space of 15 years (before eventually committing suicide), so if you had his luck (or lack thereof) in this theoretical world, that could actually be a conceivable possibility.


----------



## Maxperson

While we're on the subject of me and vaccine humor, when my wife was pregnant we went to the OBGYN for a routine visit.  While there we were told that we have to get some sort of vaccine against something infants are susceptible to(can't remember the name) and should talk to the receptionist on the way out.  Dutifully we went to the receptionist when the appointment ended and the receptionist asked us if we wanted to get the vaccine.  Mustering as serious a face as I could manage I said, "But.....................I don't want to catch autism."  The poor woman's mouth worked itself for a few seconds before she blurted out, "It.........it doesn't work that way!"  That was as long as I could keep a straight face and I laughed as I said, "I know."


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Remember the discussion of quacks profiting from disinformaion?  Well, the #1 spreader of C19 lies is a Florida osteopath who has made over $100m by casting doubt on mainstream medic and supplying the market with his own remedies.









						The Most Influential Spreader of Coronavirus Misinformation Online
					

SAN FRANCISCO — The article that appeared online Feb. 9 began with a seemingly innocuous question about the legal definition of vaccines. Then over its next 3,400 words, it declared coronavirus vaccines were “a medical fraud” and said the injections did not prevent infections, provide immunity...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Remember the discussion of quacks profiting from disinformaion?  Well, the #1 spreader of C19 lies is a Florida osteopath who has made over $100m by casting doubt on mainstream medic and supplying the market with his own remedies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Most Influential Spreader of Coronavirus Misinformation Online
> 
> 
> SAN FRANCISCO — The article that appeared online Feb. 9 began with a seemingly innocuous question about the legal definition of vaccines. Then over its next 3,400 words, it declared coronavirus vaccines were “a medical fraud” and said the injections did not prevent infections, provide immunity...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




 You could put that in the duck thread.


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> How can it get dumber than "vaccines shed and make women near then infertile!!!"? (I'm going to regret asking this in the future, aren't I?)



In about 9 months, expect a rash of lawsuits involving birth defects - most of which have straightforward explanations involving long-understood causes, a few of which are more complicated, and a sensationalized handful which have medical researchers stumped.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> In about 9 months, expect a rash of lawsuits involving birth defects - most of which have straightforward explanations involving long-understood causes, a few of which are more complicated, and a sensationalized handful which have medical researchers stumped.



…probably because of incomplete info.


----------



## ssvegeta555

Zardnaar said:


> Vietnam 3000 cases in a year. 90000 since April. Going into lockdown.



Damn, didn't think it skyrocketed that high already and I don't think that's anywhere near peak yet. And they will impose thst 6 pm curfew in Ho Chi Minh City tonight. Some strict lockdowns over there.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The USA & UK: still very much like relatives.  So very much the same.









						Anti-vaxx conspiracy theorist tells rally that healthcare workers fighting COVID could face Nuremberg-style trials
					

Thousands gathered in London's Trafalgar Square to protest COVID-19 vaccinations, with conspiracy theorists comparing them to Nazi-era medical trials.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The USA & UK: still very much like relatives.  So very much the same.




The apple does not fall far from the tree.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> The apple does not fall far from the tree.




 More like an Australian apple planted seeds.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> More like an Australian apple planted seeds.




Um, no.  The US didn't get its nonsense (or its apples) from Australia.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Um, no.  The US didn't get its nonsense (or its apples) from Australia.




 Murdoch's an Aussie. His media is doing the same crap there as USA and UK.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Murdoch's an Aussie. His media is doing the same crap there as USA and UK.



Man’s got a point.  Gives a different meaning to ”fruit of the poisonous tree”.

Though, TBF, Murdoch didn’t really plant those seeds.  He certainly has maintained those orchards brilliantly, though.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Man’s got a point.  Gives a different meaning to ”fruit of the poisonous tree”.
> 
> Though, TBF, Murdoch didn’t really plant those seeds.  He certainly has maintained those orchards brilliantly, though.




 It's always been there smoldering away but he is pouring gasoline on it. 

 His father tried to get a general fired back in WW1 and was trying to influence things 1915. Said general was the best the Aussies had and one of the best in WW1. Said general had Jewish ancestry.

 Family legacy. 

 Slightly more subtle in Aussie but not by much.  In LNP areas of Auzzie "Sneaky viruses overwhelms XYZ". 

 In Labour areas "incompetent premiers F's up again". Paraphrased of course. 


 Despite the lockdowns in the Labour areas reducing the curve, 4 weeks in numbers still increasing in the LNP states eg NSW. 

 Same play book essentially.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Murdoch's an Aussie. His media is doing the same crap there as USA and UK.




Our issues are far older than Murdoch.


----------



## J.Quondam

Yeah, and one of the US's biggest and oldest issues is that can/will do little about people like Murdoch.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Our issues are far older than Murdoch.




 Some are but there's a lot of problems similar in many countries where USAisms don't apply. 

 Murdoch and co are the symptom not the disease.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Murdoch and co are the symptom not the disease.




That is exactly my point.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> That is exactly my point.




 I read up on his dad. Rupert was raised by an arch reactionary in his own time who grew up in the Victorian Age. Married kinda late in life and got sidelined in WW2 due to complaints he was that bad.

 WW1 seemed to be the foundation the empire was built on.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Went to the InterGem Gem & Jewelry show this weekend- first I’d attended sine late 2019/early 2020.  I only went to day 1 of 3 (Friday) because of relatives coming to town, a veterinary emergency, and an abundance of caution.

While I was masked up the whole show, most of the vendors and attendees were not.  Event staff and security were masked.  

Even if it were not for the family & pet factors, I’m not sure I would have attended another day.  Saturday & Sunday would have had much bigger crowds, and if the masking percentages had remained the same, I would expect bad things to happen.  (See also, the Delta variant.)

I post this to provide context for the upcoming Cons I’ve seen others mentioned.  Hopefully, our hobby can do better.


----------



## Zardnaar

Pretty much waiting for a screw upat the border with delta. 

 8 days to go to jabby jabby.  Assuming there's no screw ups. 

 The numbers were 70/20/10 for yes/maybe/no for vaccines. Apparently that's now 80% yes.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I post this to provide context for the upcoming Cons I’ve seen others mentioned.  Hopefully, our hobby can do better.




I suspect you're optimistic, but then, as I've noted, the last year has done nothing for my perception of human nature.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’m in the Dallas area- one of the more liberal areas of the state- and things have generally been quiet.  But we still have our fair share of anti vax/mask noise,

I guess I was hoping to cajole Con organizers, staff and attendees into being better.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Putting a celebrity’s face on a problem coming back again:








						Ruby Rose Hospitalized After Surgical Complications, Tearfully Says She Was Rejected from ERs
					

“It's just… it doesn't need to be this hard for everyone,” Ruby Rose said, before encouraging people to get their COVID-19 vaccine




					www.yahoo.com
				




TL;DR- hospitals are getting slammed by C19 patients again in such numbers as to endanger the health of the uninflected because they can’t get into the ERs or admitted into hospitals.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Apparently the CDC has decided that the exhaled viral load from vaccinated carriers isn't appreciably different from unvaccinated.  Given its abundantly clear that the symptoms and outcomes are radically different, I'm wondering how that even works; you'd think if the immune system is beating things down enough to positively impact outcomes it'd be reducing the load, too.


----------



## Ryujin

Thomas Shey said:


> Apparently the CDC has decided that the exhaled viral load from vaccinated carriers isn't appreciably different from unvaccinated.  Given its abundantly clear that the symptoms and outcomes are radically different, I'm wondering how that even works; you'd think if the immune system is beating things down enough to positively impact outcomes it'd be reducing the load, too.



Unless the body is much more capable of fighting the virus in the bloodstream, than it is in the sinus cavity.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> Apparently the CDC has decided that the exhaled viral load from vaccinated carriers isn't appreciably different from unvaccinated.




Not quite.

As I noted above, with the Delta variant, viral loads in the upper respiratory tract are _orders of magnitude higher_ than with the original strain, even though symptoms are not much worse. So, with Delta, the exhaled vial loads may still be much lower for vaccinated people, but that may not be low enough to prevent spread.

Also, while masks are mostly there to keep your viral particles in, it has been clearly shown that properly wearing a mask does give you some protection against incoming particles.  The vacine works well, but it isnt' perfect, and layering this protection helps keep you safe from breakthrough infection.

Also, it has become obvious that there's value in _normalizing mask-wearing_.  Most places cannot enforce "only unvaccinated need to wear masks".  They can enforce "everyone wears a mask".  So, there's value in telling vaccinated people to wear masks, if only because that increases the number of unvaccinated mask-wearers, too.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> Not quite.
> 
> As I noted above, with the Delta variant, viral loads in the upper respiratory tract are _orders of magnitude higher_ than with the original strain, even though symptoms are not much worse. So, with Delta, the exhaled vial loads may still be much lower for vaccinated people, but that may not be low enough to prevent spread.
> 
> Also, while masks are mostly there to keep your viral particles in, it has been clearly shown that properly wearing a mask does give you some protection against incoming particles.  The vacine works well, but it isnt' perfect, and layering this protection helps keep you safe from breakthrough infection.
> 
> Also, it has become obvious that there's value in _normalizing mask-wearing_.  Most places cannot enforce "only unvaccinated need to wear masks".  They can enforce "everyone wears a mask".  So, there's value in telling vaccinated people to wear masks, if only because that increases the number of unvaccinated mask-wearers, too.



isn't that basically what we been saying the whole.  Wear a mask. It's simpler than doing math.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Not quite.
> 
> As I noted above, with the Delta variant, viral loads in the upper respiratory tract are _orders of magnitude higher_ than with the original strain, even though symptoms are not much worse. So, with Delta, the exhaled vial loads may still be much lower for vaccinated people, but that may not be low enough to prevent spread.




What I said was what the article I was reading indicated: that there was no meaningful difference.  That doesn't mean it was accurate, but I didn't misrepresent it.



Umbran said:


> Also, while masks are mostly there to keep your viral particles in, it has been clearly shown that properly wearing a mask does give you some protection against incoming particles.  The vacine works well, but it isnt' perfect, and layering this protection helps keep you safe from breakthrough infection.




Really?  All of the latter day material I saw on the subject indicated that the incoming protection from most masks was trivial in most cases (which does not make this true with all masks, just the ones most people are using).



Umbran said:


> Also, it has become obvious that there's value in _normalizing mask-wearing_.  Most places cannot enforce "only unvaccinated need to wear masks".  They can enforce "everyone wears a mask".  So, there's value in telling vaccinated people to wear masks, if only because that increases the number of unvaccinated mask-wearers, too.




This I agree with completely.  The various honor-system rules about vaccinated versus unvaccinated struck as making a massive misjudgment of human nature.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> Unless the body is much more capable of fighting the virus in the bloodstream, than it is in the sinus cavity.




That was the only thing I could think of, but it seemed--odd.


----------



## CleverNickName

Thomas Shey said:


> The various honor-system rules about vaccinated versus unvaccinated struck as making a massive misjudgment of human nature.



That's a very generous way to say it.  I would have phrased it more like


----------



## Thomas Shey

I try not to let my cynicism of my fellow humans spill out too strongly or there'd be no end of it.


----------



## CapnZapp

To return to the topic I discussed a few pages ago. The fact that it is unrealistic to think masks is the answer. Keeping masks and other restrictions just to chiefly save the lives of unvaccinated will soon become untenable. 

_Please note:_ While the practical suggestion in the end might sound similar ("drop restrictions"), this is a completely different argument than the ignorant "let's skip restrictions entirely and just pretend there is no pandemic" and comes from a very different angle.

First off I completely agree the idea to only require masks for unvaccinated is ridiculous and needs to die pronto. Either everybody needs to wear a mask or you can forget about it. In the short term, I have no issue with masking.

No, the real issue is that you would need masking as long as so many remain unvaccinated. Which in practice means so long it could as well mean "forever".

There will come a time and it will come soon when society decides to dump those that _could_ have gotten the vaccine but decided against it. This will be a time where restrictions are lifted, masking is gone, and society returns to normal. 

_Except with a lot of deaths among unvaccinated._

As long as the unvaccinated doesn't clog the healthcare system completely (making other care unavailable for the vaccinated) this will be considered acceptable. They made their choice, they need to "live" with it.



Here's just a single article I think is representative:









						Opinion | It’s Time to Rethink What the ‘End’ of the Pandemic Looks Like
					

Adjustments to our Covid-19 mindset could do wonders as we face down the virus in the months ahead.




					www.politico.com
				




Note the way the author veils his conclusions instead of saying them clearly and outright. It's still a bit too early to suggest dropping masks outright.


----------



## Hussar

It is kinda interesting how different countries have approached masking.  Masking was a think here in Japan long before covid.  Heck, it was a thing here long before SARS.  The point was always, "I have a social responsiblity not make other people sick with my germs."  Makes a lot of sense in a country with a population density like China or Japan.  

I imagine there are all sorts of papers that could be written on the topic.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> It is kinda interesting how different countries have approached masking.  Masking was a think here in Japan long before covid.  Heck, it was a thing here long before SARS.  The point was always, "I have a social responsiblity not make other people sick with my germs."  Makes a lot of sense in a country with a population density like China or Japan.
> 
> I imagine there are all sorts of papers that could be written on the topic.



I’ve actually used Japan’s C19 data to push back against anti-maskers of various flavors in other contexts.  The fact that a country with an older, more densely packed population than the USA and had no real lockdown has a mortality rate about 1/50th of ours says VOLUMES about the efficacy of masks and personal hygiene measures.

It’s often a conversation ender.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Maxperson said:


> Honestly, if it wasn't for the risk of the virus mutating in one of them and becoming a threat to me and mine, I wouldn't care if they Darwin themselves or make themselves dumber.  Their stupidity poses a significant and unacceptable risk to the rest of us, though, so something has to change.



I didn't know this, does the virus mutate only in the non-vaccinated? Can anyone share a link please to the study.


----------



## Horwath

AnotherGuy said:


> I didn't know this, does the virus mutate only in the non-vaccinated? Can anyone share a link please to the study.



I am not sure by how much, but as virus lives longer in unvaccinated person, it multiplies more times and every time a virus multiplies in host cell, there is a chance for mutation.


----------



## Maxperson

AnotherGuy said:


> I didn't know this, does the virus mutate only in the non-vaccinated? Can anyone share a link please to the study.



No, but in the vaccinated it has vastly smaller numbers of viral load, which means a much, much smaller chance of mutation and even if it does mutate, a much, much smaller chance of being passed out of the body.  And then if everyone else vaccinated, a much smaller chance of being picked up by the other person.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Horwath said:


> I am not sure by how much, but as virus lives longer in unvaccinated person, it multiplies more times and every time a virus multiplies in host cell, there is a chance for mutation.




Yeah, its not so much a binary does/doesn't as a probability thing.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Any infected host provides an opportunity to mutate.

Speaking of which, a variant from South America has popped up in Florida.


----------



## CleverNickName

We were doing so well, and then they lifted the restrictions.

If only there was a way we could have known what would happen every time we lifted the restrictions.

OH WAIT


----------



## Thomas Shey

Honestly, even the restrictions lifting would have probably been okay if there were significantly less vax resistants.


----------



## Zardnaar

Australia deploying the army to enforce lockdown come Monday. 

Covid in Sydney: Military deployed to help enforce lockdown


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> Australia deploying the army to enforce lockdown come Monday.
> 
> Covid in Sydney: Military deployed to help enforce lockdown


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Bad news, good news: most of the people- nearly 80%- in a recent outbreak in MA were vaccinated.  And most of the infected displayed symptoms. 89% of the infected tested positive for the Delta variant.

However, there were only 5 hospitalizations, with one death.  

So, while Delta may be causing a much higher percentage of breakthrough infections, the vaccines are still keeping people out of the hospitals.









						No deaths, few hospitalizations, but 74% of those testing positive for COVID-19 in Massachusetts outbreak were vaccinated
					

A federal investigation into a COVID-19 outbreak earlier this month in a Massachusetts county that's home to Cape Cod found that 74% of the 469 infections...




					www.marketwatch.com


----------



## CapnZapp

Zardnaar said:


> Australia deploying the army to enforce lockdown come Monday.
> 
> Covid in Sydney: Military deployed to help enforce lockdown



I like it!


----------



## Thomas Shey

Of course that story is missing some important elements like the fact "symptoms" is doing some heavy lifting (after all, fatigue and a cough are symptoms).  It'd also be helpful to know if the people hospitalized had any co-morbidities; 4 out of five being vaccinated seems unusually high for that level of breakthrough (though, of course, the sample size isn't so big it can't just be a luck of the draw thing).


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yesterday, it was reported that Dee Snyder (Twisted Sister frontman) and several of his family members contracted Covid despite being fully vaccinated.*  They suspect their exposure probably occurred at a trip to one of the Disney parks, where they allege- despite posted signs indicating the park was operating within CDC & local protocols- no protocol enforcement actually occurred.

They didn’t have any _glaring_ signs of exposure, just a long-lasting “crud” that led Dee to get tested, just in case.

So I suspect that most of the people in the MA case had similarly mild symptoms, and the ones who got hospitalized DID have comorbidities, or at least, other risk factors not mentioned.

Which goes with other reports ive seen saying, essentially, Delta is more contagious (more likely to infect someone), but apparently not more dangerous (to the individuals infected).




* I’d link a story, but Dee _does_ like to drop his F-bombs…


----------



## Thomas Shey

Yeah, that'd make more sense, given everything else I've seen on the subject.  I don't think that article was exactly the best piece of medical reporting I've ever seen (not that science and medical reporting aren't, to be charitable, pretty hit or miss at the best of times), and I think it may give an impression that probably we don't need to be giving people.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yesterday, it was reported that Dee Snyder (Twisted Sister frontman) and several of his family members contracted Covid despite being fully vaccinated.*  They suspect their exposure probably occurred at a trip to one of the Disney parks, where they allege- despite posted signs indicating the park was operating within CDC & local protocols- no protocol enforcement actually occurred.
> 
> They didn’t have any _glaring_ signs of exposure, just a long-lasting “crud” that led Dee to get tested, just in case.
> 
> So I suspect that most of the people in the MA case had similarly mild symptoms, and the ones who got hospitalized DID have comorbidities, or at least, other risk factors not mentioned.
> 
> Which goes with other reports ive seen saying, essentially, Delta is more contagious (more likely to infect someone), but apparently not more dangerous (to the individuals infected).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> * I’d link a story, but Dee _does_ like to drop his F-bombs…




 Best case I suppose is a more contagious Covid varient that's not that lethal. 

 We're still going to be dealing with Covid come 2023.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Some virologists and epidemiologists believe I t’s highly possible Covid will become endemic- as in, something we’ll have to deal with every year from now on, like colds and influenza.

The _real_ question is HOW we will deal with it.  By that, I mean what measures will be required _and_ how seriously the population takes Covid itself.  Too many years like 2020 & 21, and…well…it could get ugly.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Some virologists and epidemiologists believe I t’s highly possible Covid will become endemic- as in, something we’ll have to deal with every year from now on, like colds and influenza.
> 
> The _real_ question is HOW we will deal with it.  By that, I mean what measures will be required _and_ how seriously the population takes Covid itself.  Too many years like 2020 & 21, and…well…it could get ugly.




 Well that's what's gonna happen. Beats me why people ever thought it would be done in a year or so once vaccines rolled out.


----------



## Eltab

Corona-19 is now subject to natural selection.  It will become more like the other coronaviruses found in nature.  Eventually it will affect large groups of people about the same as cold / flu viruses do: most get sniffles or aches, some need a few days' bed rest, a few develop on to bronchitis or pneumonia, a handful die.

What I do expect to change dramatically (but for the better) is medicine to kill the virus and fortify natural immune system function.  Cough drops and sneeze suppressants (so you don't blow germs all over the room) with active antiviral agents would address the greatest problem with COVID.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

It never *stopped* being subject to natural selection.

As for the rest…people forget that influenza_ is a killer_.  Most versions of it are not as deadly as the 1918 strain, but one of the main reasons for that is modern medicine.  Seasonal influenza kills 10-30k people a year in the USA...with most people getting vaccinations.  (Some of which are less effective than the ones we have for C19.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Not many get flu shots here as part of their day to day life. Maybe if your job pays for it or if you're older. 

 Got a free one last year and had them in previous years.

 What me worry?









						If civilization collapses, researchers say, try to be in one of these five countries
					

Let’s hope the scenario stays hypothetical.




					www.zmescience.com
				




 More cops plus incoming military no one turned up for more anti lockdown protests. 









						Sydney anti-lockdown protest fears ease as no-one turns up
					

After last weekend's anti-lockdown protests saw thousands of people descend on Sydney's city centre, fears of a repeat fizzled this afternoon, but the prospect still caused major disruption.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Mass vaccinations just starting now. 








						Covid-19 mass vaccination event continues in Auckland
					

Vaccinators at a mass clinic in Auckland hope to get through about 11,500 bookings today and tomorrow.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Assuming no balls up Thursday for me.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It never *stopped* being subject to natural selection.



The COVID virus came from a lab, where it was subject to *artificial* selection.


----------



## CapnZapp

Eltab said:


> The COVID virus came from a lab, where it was subject to *artificial* selection.



Reported.


----------



## Horwath

Eltab said:


> The COVID virus came from a lab, where it was subject to *artificial* selection.



Even if it did, it will still follow natural selection when it is in nature.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> The COVID virus came from a lab, where it was subject to *artificial* selection.



*Do not spread pandemic misinformation in this thread or anywhere on this site.*

1) There is NO evidence that any gain-of-function research was done on C19.  This has been debunked more than once by scientists from various countries

2) Whether C19’s jump into humans came from an environmental exposure or an accidental exposure due to a lab accident at Wuhan is unknown at this time,

3) C19 has been subject to natural selection since it first arose in nature like every other coronavirus, and has continued so to be since it’s jump into humans.


----------



## Mirtek

Dannyalcatraz said:


> with most people getting vaccinations.  (Some of which are less effective than the ones we have for C19.)



Do "most" people get vaccinations against influenza in the US? Last stats I saw for Germany are that less than 30% take the offered vaccination against influenza each season


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mirtek said:


> Do "most" people get vaccinations against influenza in the US? Last stats I saw for Germany are that less than 30% take the offered vaccination against influenza each season



In 2018-2019, @63% of kids and 45% of adults got their flu vaccines in the USA.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Corona-19 is now subject to natural selection.






Dannyalcatraz said:


> It never *stopped* being subject to natural selection.




Note that as long as we are significantly mucking about in the spread of the virus, either with vaccines or our own behaviors, that selection isn't entirely "natural".

And, even with the short generations times of the virus, evolution isn't a matter of years - it is decades to centuries.  Evolution is something you see and recognize only in retrospective.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Note that as long as we are significantly mucking about in the spread of the virus, either with vaccines or our own behaviors, that selection isn't entirely "natural".
> 
> And, even with the short generations times of the virus, evolution isn't a matter of years - it is decades to centuries.  Evolution is something you see and recognize only in retrospective.




I gather you're distinguishing evolution from selection?  Because you _absolutely_ selection in microorganisms faster than that. The history of syphilis is pretty instructive in that regard.


----------



## Mirtek

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In 2018-2019, @63% of kids and 45% of adults got their flu vaccines in the USA.



That's impressive. People in Germany just seem to not care. Admittely I never got mine until it was offered at work. Just once a year knock on a door I pass by daily anyway. If I had to make an extra appointment at my doctor and go there in my free time, I wouldn't bother to get it too


----------



## Zardnaar

Might be a balls up in my vaccine appointment. Found out today you're supposed to get a confirmation message which I didn't get. Did get a message saying your XYZ has expired but ignore this message if you have already made an appointment. 

 Have to ring the phone number and check if I actually have said appointment I thought I did.


----------



## Imaculata

Just got my 2nd shot.

Now with my newly acquired magnetic powers, I will rule the world!


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> Just got my 2nd shot.
> 
> Now with my newly acquired magnetic powers, I will rule the world!




 Aww I wanted the super powers. 

 Failing that I'll settle for the free microchips for an iphone.

 Smug face "I've got an iphone".


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mirtek said:


> That's impressive. People in Germany just seem to not care. Admittely I never got mine until it was offered at work. Just once a year knock on a door I pass by daily anyway. If I had to make an extra appointment at my doctor and go there in my free time, I wouldn't bother to get it too



I was actually surprised to see our number so low…which, given how the CURRENT vaccination push is going, probably shouldn’t have been a surprise.

After all, if you’re insured, it’s free, and is available in doctors offices and pharmacies of all kinds.  Including the ones in grocery stores.  It may be easier to get a flu shot in the USA than a complicated cup of coffee at Starbucks.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Might be a balls up in my vaccine appointment. Found out today you're supposed to get a confirmation message which I didn't get. Did get a message saying your XYZ has expired but ignore this message if you have already made an appointment.
> 
> Have to ring the phone number and check if I actually have said appointment I thought I did.



Good luck with that!


----------



## Zardnaar

Easier to get a flu shot vs a good cup of Starbucks coffee?


----------



## CapnZapp

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In 2018-2019, @63% of kids and 45% of adults got their flu vaccines in the USA.



Wow.

Where I live flu shots are a thing only the elderly do. I wouldn't have known about it (before the pandemic that is) if my mother hadn't said she started having them five years ago or so, and she's past 80.

Since yearly shots is exceedingly likely to be a thing for everybody now, I'm sure we'll eventually get a combo shot against all of it...


----------



## CapnZapp

Zardnaar said:


> Easier to get a flu shot vs a good cup of Starbucks coffee?



I believe it. I have found Starbucks coffee far too-roasted-but-too-thin at-the-same-time if that makes sense.


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> I believe it. I have found Starbucks coffee far too-roasted-but-too-thin at-the-same-time if that makes sense.




 Failed in Aussie not doing well here. 

  I think the standard shot here is a USA double. Nation of coffee tweakers. 

 If Delta gets in here and spreads we're kinda screwed 7 ways to Sunday. 









						Covid-19: How would Aotearoa cope with a Delta outbreak?
					

Aotearoa's best bet if Delta were to emerge in the community would be a rapid shift to "alert level 4 on steroids", data modelling expert says.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 RSV did a number. 

  Single case in the wild will be another lockdown. Level 4 everything is closed except for essential services (food production, freight energy etc). No food deliveries or takeout either.


----------



## Mirtek

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I was actually surprised to see our number so low…which, given how the CURRENT vaccination push is going, probably shouldn’t have been a surprise.
> 
> After all, if you’re insured, it’s free, and is available in doctors offices and pharmacies of all kinds.  Including the ones in grocery stores.  It may be easier to get a flu shot in the USA than a complicated cup of coffee at Starbucks.



Beide the gap in insurance between USA and Germany (almost impossible to not be insured here) that explains it. Here you can only get it from a doctor, not in pharmacies and certainly not in grocery stores (which in Germany are not even allowed to sell any meds).

And with a doctor here you either have a fixed appointmemt made far in advance or you may go to one of there walk in periods, but then you might very well have to wait an hour or more until you're up.

So unless your company has it's own doctor for employees to be visited during work, it requires a focused effort to get the shot.

At least it's free for anyone and most insurances actually reward you for doing it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Not sure how I got the flu vaccine last year. It was free though. Think I went to doctor for something else and got offered the vaccine. Needles don't bother me so got it in lockdown in a garage basically.


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> Easier to get a flu shot vs a good cup of Starbucks coffee?



There's no such thing as good coffee. Foul stuff.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Easier to get a flu shot vs a good cup of Starbucks coffee?



certainly is here


----------



## Garthanos

Maxperson said:


> There's no such thing as good coffee. Foul stuff.



boiled bean juice... echk huh.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mirtek said:


> Beide the gap in insurance between USA and Germany (almost impossible to not be insured here) that explains it. Here you can only get it from a doctor, not in pharmacies and certainly not in grocery stores (which in Germany are not even allowed to sell any meds).
> 
> And with a doctor here you either have a fixed appointmemt made far in advance or you may go to one of there walk in periods, but then you might very well have to wait an hour or more until you're up.
> 
> So unless your company has it's own doctor for employees to be visited during work, it requires a focused effort to get the shot.
> 
> At least it's free for anyone and most insurances actually reward you for doing it.



The ubiquity of flu shots- including availability as a walk-in- actually predates our change in insurance coverag via the ACA, commonly called Obamacare.  (Where I live, at least.)  So again, our numbers are disappointingly at odds with my expectations.

And to clarify, shot dispensaries are not in any old grocery store, but rather, in those that have a pharmacy in them.

I must say that I’m a tad surprised that something as safe as a basic flu shot requires a doctor’s appointment in Germany, but that mayhave many reasons, including variations in pharmacist training.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

More on Delta, breakthrough infections and why shots & masks matter:









						COVID: Breakthrough Cases Surge Among San Francisco Hospital Staff
					

San Francisco could be the next Bay Area city to issue an indoor mask mandate amid a COVID case surge that has included over 200 vaccinated health care professionals at hospitals.




					sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com
				




This many breakthrough infections in 2 hospitals is going to have a domino effect on the level of care available for EVERY patient going into those facilities.

Simply put: reduce the number of vectors, reduce the number of infections.  Reduce the number of infections, reduce the strain on the healthcare system.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well my appointments for vaccines are still good but the confirmation messages are kind of your ticket. 

 Got through on the phone straight away and got a booking number which can also be used. Jabby jabby in 4 days.

 For flu vaccines technically they're free but the visit to the doctor isn't. Apparently there's a shortage of doctors and appointments can be a pain. Never had any trouble locally but that might be because of the medical school.


----------



## AnotherGuy

> Dr. Lukejohn Day of S.F. General said all of these cases were contracted outside the hospital since strict PPE protocols are still in place inside.
> 
> “Our PPE requirements have not changed since the beginning of the pandemic. We have always adhered to them so strictly we have not had any patient-to-staff or staff-to-patient transmissions,” Dr. Day told KPIX.
> 
> He expected that, through the pandemic, 10 to 20 percent of his staff would be sickened by COVID-19 but, between safety protocols and vaccines, that has not happened.
> 
> “We didn’t see that for the first couple of surges and I think that was really due to the sheltering in place that was in effect through San Francisco and the Bay Area,” Dr. Day said.




This level of surety is unparalleled.
Not even a little skepticism on his part given asymptomatic shedding.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AnotherGuy said:


> This level of surety is unparalleled.
> Not even a little skepticism on his part given asymptomatic shedding.



Yeah, a little too confident, especially considering in 2020- as posted some pages back- at least one virologist claims to have contracted C19 via his _eyes _on a cross-country flight since all of the other major probable pathways were properly shielded while traveling.  (Even then, ocular contraction of C19 was a known, if rare, possibility.)

_And that was with a less contagious strain._


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yeah, a little too confident, especially considering in 2020- as posted some pages back- at least one virologist claims to have contracted C19 via his _eyes _on a cross-country flight since all of the other major probable pathways were properly shielded while traveling.  (Even then, ocular contraction of C19 was a known, if rare, possibility.)
> 
> _And that was with a less contagious strain._




 Seems more likely a mask failed or wasn't used.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Nah, he had his mask & gloves on.  And he mentioned _then_ ocular transmission was a known transmission path.  And if you look, there’s lots of articles mentioning it as a possible but rare way to catch C19


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Nah, he had his mask & gloves on.  And he mentioned _then_ ocular transmission was a known transmission path.  And if you look, there’s lots of articles mentioning it as a possible but rare way to catch C19




 Masks are to stop you infecting other yes? 

 And they're not 100% effective either afaik they just help was what I thought. 

 If delta gets out here there goes the game night and dining out. Mmmnnn pasta.


----------



## CapnZapp

Dannyalcatraz said:


> More on Delta, breakthrough infections and why shots & masks matter:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID: Breakthrough Cases Surge Among San Francisco Hospital Staff
> 
> 
> San Francisco could be the next Bay Area city to issue an indoor mask mandate amid a COVID case surge that has included over 200 vaccinated health care professionals at hospitals.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This many breakthrough infections in 2 hospitals is going to have a domino effect on the level of care available for EVERY patient going into those facilities.
> 
> Simply put: reduce the number of vectors, reduce the number of infections.  Reduce the number of infections, reduce the strain on the healthcare system.



Not sure what the takeaway is here...?

If you merely wanted to say "wear your mask and take the shot" then sure. That's entirely fine.

But in the longer run? 

I wonder when the "freedom" that is being able to not choose to take the vaccine will be shut down. Allowing people to remain unvaccinated is a luxury we just might realize we can't afford.


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> Not sure what the takeaway is here...?
> 
> If you merely wanted to say "wear your mask and take the shot" then sure. That's entirely fine.
> 
> But in the longer run?
> 
> I wonder when the "freedom" that is being able to not choose to take the vaccine will be shut down. Allowing people to remain unvaccinated is a luxury we just might realize we can't afford.




 They can't really enforce that in the states and its against the law here. Good luck changing the US constitution. 

 They can indirectly pressure you eg no vaccine no job. 

 They can theoretically change the law here a lot easier than the USA but to do so is unprecedented.


----------



## CleverNickName

Zardnaar said:


> Good luck changing the US constitution.



It's happened before.  Twenty-seven times, in fact.








						Twenty-seventh Amendment to the United States Constitution - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> It's happened before.  Twenty-seven times, in fact.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Twenty-seventh Amendment to the United States Constitution - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org




 Yes and last time was 1970's iirc. 

 Can anyone get 75% consensus these days to do so? 

 Good luck with that.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Mirtek said:


> That's impressive. People in Germany just seem to not care. Admittely I never got mine until it was offered at work. Just once a year knock on a door I pass by daily anyway. If I had to make an extra appointment at my doctor and go there in my free time, I wouldn't bother to get it too




I usually either get it done when I've got a doctor's appointment anyway, or make one at the local pharmacy.


----------



## CapnZapp

Zardnaar said:


> They can't really enforce that in the states and its against the law here. Good luck changing the US constitution.
> 
> They can indirectly pressure you eg no vaccine no job.
> 
> They can theoretically change the law here a lot easier than the USA but to do so is unprecedented.



Laws are words on paper.

That only works until civilization breaks down.


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> Laws are words on paper.
> 
> That only works until civilization breaks down.




 If that happens getting vaccinated won't be much of a concern.


----------



## DNDElise

GreyLord said:


> This is a little off topic, but I think considering recent events, very pertinent to D&D and the current situation in the world.
> 
> I was looking for something dealing with COVID 19 and couldn't find a forum to put it in, but considering the subject, this may be the best forum to think about this.
> 
> Currently in many cities there are fears of a rising virus.  Viruses normally spread exponentially, meaning that one sick individual infects several others and so forth.  With the rising numbers of ill, at what point do you consider cancelling your weekly (or bi-weekly) group?
> 
> Would you cancel it over illness fears?  If so, at what point do you decide to cancel?  Do you wait for the government to cancel schools and non-essentials?  Do you wait for longer...do you cancel before that?
> 
> If you are in one of the hotspots, what are you doing now?  If you are under quarantine, how do you get your gaming fix on?
> 
> Is it ethical to continue gaming if they say avoid non-essential contact with other people, for example if you are in Northern Italy in one of the hotspots currently?
> 
> Microsoft has instituted that many should work from home at this point.  There are many gamers there.  Should we be gaming more online rather than in person?  I'm not a big fan of gaming online and rather face to face over a table.
> 
> When should we start avoiding the game stores...and won't that hurt the FLGS if they lose business for a week?
> 
> The bigger question we had recently is that there has been the flu bug going around in the community.  We are lucky we have no COVID reported currently in our area (though with how it's been handled I'm pretty sure it's in the wild in my country and there are probably dozens of unconfirmed cases if not more).  I had a person panic out today because another person was coughing right beside them.  Most likely it is the flu (and we are all rather healthy...I think...so even if we get it I think we are okay) rather than the COVID 19 because, as I said, no confirmed cases in the area, but it sparked an interesting discussion on the Corona virus and what should be done.
> 
> With one of my groups I am a co-DM and basically the Co-Leader if we go by that.  I'm not quite as hardcore as the other co-leader of the group.  I'm leaning that if schools cancel, we should cancel...maybe before.  I'm not sure at what point to call the game and say...hey people...we aren't meeting anymore until this entire thing blows over.  I'm somewhat concerned.  For some reason (remember, no confirmed cases in our area) the stores are now out of toilet paper and sanitizer (Luckily I bought some recently).  People are panicking already and I'm thinking perhaps we should stop meeting for a while until this blows over.  The other co-leader is pretty hardcore though.  I'm not sure if they would cancel regardless of any situation (I'm thinking they had the flu and gave it to at least one other player).
> 
> Does anyone have thoughts or plans on this.  What happens if they put your area under quarantine or restricted mobility (don't go out unless one has to, distance between people, etc).  Anyone already enacting a plan regarding this situation in their home city?
> 
> How do you balance between running your game and the fears currently out there of a rising pandemic?  I suppose that's the core question.  Statistically, currently, the risk still seems low to me, but with how viruses spread that could change very quickly.  I don't want to shut down gaming prematurely, but at the same time I don't want our group to become the plague bearers of the area (I think our area is currently very low risk, but I'm not sure of the future).



I would keep an eye on your community's numbers and hospitals. Our city has a dashboard which gives us the numbers and level of threat. Our hospitals are at capacity now and our threat level has gone up, so we have been staying in until the numbers go back down. Before the big surge we were going to the flgs about once a week. 

If the numbers get too high, virtual gaming is an option. Zoom voice and video for D&D and TTRPGs and Table Top Simulator on Steam and using another platform for voice is also a solution. Hope all is well and stay safe!


----------



## Thomas Shey

Yeah, we moved to gaming via Maptool and Skype/Discord more than a year ago and haven't shifted back yet.  It isn't problem free, but its workable.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Masks are to stop you infecting other yes?
> 
> And they're not 100% effective either afaik they just help was what I thought.
> 
> If delta gets out here there goes the game night and dining out. Mmmnnn pasta.



Masks are about 70% effective.  And they do help prevent transmission more out than in- I suspect because the droplets closer to the source of emission are larger.

But I’m not going to quibble with a virologist on this.  Perhaps there’s some info not being revealed in the article about him that led him to conclude it was ocular transmission.  Perhaps the way it manifests in its earliest stages is the giveaway.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Good luck changing the US constitution.




Your knowledge of US Constitutional case law seems a bit lacking.



Zardnaar said:


> They can indirectly pressure you eg no vaccine no job.




*States can compel vaccination*.  This was settled by the SCOTUS over a century ago.  Jacobson v. Massachusetts, in which Jacobson tried to argue that compulsory vaccination (against smallpox, in 1904) was unconstitutional, and the court found that, in the interest of public health, the states have the right to compel vaccination.

From that decision:
_"...in every well ordered society charged with the duty of conserving the safety of its members the rights of the individual in respect of his liberty may at times, under the pressure of great dangers, be subjected to such restraint, to be enforced by reasonable regulations, as the safety of the general public may demand" 

"...[r]eal liberty for all could not exist under the operation of a principle which recognizes the right of each individual person to use his own [liberty], whether in respect of his person or his property, regardless of the injury that may be done to others."_

This precedent already justifies the mask mandates, enforced business closings, and other pandemic control efforts.  It has been referenced over and over since 1904 (like, in the 1918 flu pandemic, etc).  This is pretty solid precedent, and why the courts have roundly rejected challenges to the various state measures already in place.

The problems facing compulsory vaccination in the US are not legal, but political.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Masks are about 70% effective.  And they do help prevent transmission more out than in- I suspect because the droplets closer to the source of emission are larger.
> 
> But I’m not going to quibble with a virologist on this.  Perhaps there’s some info not being revealed in the article about him that led him to conclude it was ocular transmission.  Perhaps the way it manifests in its earliest stages is the giveaway.





Umbran said:


> Your knowledge of US Constitutional case law seems a bit lacking.
> 
> 
> 
> *States can compel vaccination*.  This was settled by the SCOTUS over a century ago.  Jacobson v. Massachusetts, in which Jacobson tried to argue that compulsory vaccination (against smallpox, in 1904) was unconstitutional, and the court found that, in the interest of public health, the states have the right to compel vaccination.
> 
> From that decision:
> _"...in every well ordered society charged with the duty of conserving the safety of its members the rights of the individual in respect of his liberty may at times, under the pressure of great dangers, be subjected to such restraint, to be enforced by reasonable regulations, as the safety of the general public may demand"
> 
> "...[r]eal liberty for all could not exist under the operation of a principle which recognizes the right of each individual person to use his own [liberty], whether in respect of his person or his property, regardless of the injury that may be done to others."_
> 
> This precedent already justifies the mask mandates, enforced business closings, and other pandemic control efforts.  It has been referenced over and over since 1904 (like, in the 1918 flu pandemic, etc).  This is pretty solid precedent, and why the courts have roundly rejected challenges to the various state measures already in place.
> 
> The problems facing compulsory vaccination in the US are not legal, but political.




 1904 was a long time ago though. I'm well aware of it's political but we're not allowed to discuss it to much. 

 Would you like to test that precedent in the current make up of the supreme court? 

 The court can also reverse previous decisions afaik yes?


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> 1904 was a long time ago though.




You say that as if it matters to the law or the court. That's not how it has operated, to date, even with the current seated justices.



Zardnaar said:


> Would you like to test that precedent in the current make up of the supreme court?




As if what _I_ want is relevant here?  We are discussing the law, not my preferences.



Zardnaar said:


> The court can also reverse previous decisions afaik yes?




It is possible, but the current court has not shown the zeal to overturn precedent that many seem to expect given the court's composition.  It is almost as if the members of the court are aware that if they get into the precedent-flipping business, they will eliminate any chance for establishing a lasting legacy, as their own rulings will become targets for later flipping.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> It is possible, but the current court has not shown the zeal to overturn precedent that many seem to expect given the court's composition.  It is almost as if the members of the court are aware that if they get into the precedent-flipping business, they will eliminate any chance for establishing a lasting legacy, as their own rulings will become targets for later flipping.




I read an interesting article analyzing the current court that says one of the things that confounds people is that there's actually a two-dimensional split on it; besides the tradition political one, its also split among people who are strong on precedent and those who aren't, and the two splits don't line up.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Your knowledge of US Constitutional case law seems a bit lacking.
> 
> 
> 
> *States can compel vaccination*.  This was settled by the SCOTUS over a century ago.  Jacobson v. Massachusetts, in which Jacobson tried to argue that compulsory vaccination (against smallpox, in 1904) was unconstitutional, and the court found that, in the interest of public health, the states have the right to compel vaccination.
> 
> From that decision:
> _"...in every well ordered society charged with the duty of conserving the safety of its members the rights of the individual in respect of his liberty may at times, under the pressure of great dangers, be subjected to such restraint, to be enforced by reasonable regulations, as the safety of the general public may demand"
> 
> "...[r]eal liberty for all could not exist under the operation of a principle which recognizes the right of each individual person to use his own [liberty], whether in respect of his person or his property, regardless of the injury that may be done to others."_
> 
> This precedent already justifies the mask mandates, enforced business closings, and other pandemic control efforts.  It has been referenced over and over since 1904 (like, in the 1918 flu pandemic, etc).  This is pretty solid precedent, and why the courts have roundly rejected challenges to the various state measures already in place.
> 
> The problems facing compulsory vaccination in the US are not legal, but political.



I’ve mentioned _Jacobsen_ more than once.  Still good law.  So far.

And those judges- at ANY level- who are weak on stare decisis have a flawed understanding of the nature of their job.  Overturning cases on a whim instead of solid legal rationales means a judicial system mired in relitigation of contentious issues to the point of irrelevance.


----------



## J.Quondam

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’ve mentioned _Jacobsen_ more than once.  Still good law.  So far.
> 
> And those judges- at ANY level- who are weak on stare decisis have a flawed understanding of the nature of their job.  Overturning cases on a whim instead of solid legal rationales _*means a judicial system mired in relitigation of contentious issues to the point of irrelevance.*_



I'll go out on a limb here and guess that there are ideologues who see this bolded part as a feature, not a bug.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> I read an interesting article analyzing the current court ...




Yeah.  I think that deep analysis of the court is off-topic for the thread, but the point that the court does not simply make rulings along the traditional political lines is sufficient for the needs of this discussion.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

J.Quondam said:


> I'll go out on a limb here and guess that there are ideologues who see this bolded part as a feature, not a bug.



_Blinders of Idiocy_ would be a great cursed artifact, don‘t you think?


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> You say that as if it matters to the law or the court. That's not how it has operated, to date, even with the current seated justices.
> 
> 
> 
> As if what _I_ want is relevant here?  We are discussing the law, not my preferences.
> 
> 
> 
> It is possible, but the current court has not shown the zeal to overturn precedent that many seem to expect given the court's composition.  It is almost as if the members of the court are aware that if they get into the precedent-flipping business, they will eliminate any chance for establishing a lasting legacy, as their own rulings will become targets for later flipping.




 And what you gonna do if 120 million people or whatever go with civil disobedience as option 1 or if various states and cities declear sanctuary cities and states?


----------



## Garthanos

No shirt no shoes no mask no service , your kid does not get into school without vaccine and cannot use the public library and so on and so forth. Lots of little laws.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> No shirt no shoes no mask no service , your kid does not get into school without vaccine and cannot use the public library and so on and so forth. Lots of little laws.




 That requires the local authorites to enforce it.  If you get entire cities or states going nuh uh.....


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

If we get huge numbers of people being disobedient- civilly or not- the USA will become one of the best C19 breeding ponds in the world.

And our economy will suffer for it,

Which will mean the world will suffer for it…for a lot of reasons.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> If we get huge numbers of people being disobedient- civilly or not- the USA will become one of the best C19 breeding ponds in the world.
> 
> And our economy will suffer for it,
> 
> Which will mean the world will suffer for it…for a lot of reasons.




This isn't happening now? They could make vaccines mandatory theoretically I doubt they will as they can't really enforce it (see war on drugs, gun control etc).

 Smaller scale here during lockdown they had the BLM protests followed by anti vaccine protests and cops did nothing. 

 1. Cops generally don't care about protests in terms of breaking then up. 

2. Neither of them were breaking the law.

3. The emergency powers used were from 1952 and never used or tested in the courts. 

 Lots of potential there for egg on face if that law used from the 1950's is thrown out by the courts. 

 Courts here generally go with the spirit of the law or whatever the government of the day says it means.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> That requires the local authorites to enforce it.  If you get entire cities or states going nuh uh.....



cities of some scale in the US already do pretty good on things like masks being now required in our local school system (but not in Florida/Missouri and some other ahem locations)


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Garthanos said:


> cities of some scale in the US already do pretty good on things like masks being now required in our local school system (but not in Florida/Missouri and some other ahem locations)




Florida Man knows that the best vaccine for covid is meth. And a pet gator. Ol’ Sam will chomp them covids!


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> cities of some scale in the US already do pretty good on things like masks being now required in our local school system (but not in Florida/Missouri and some other ahem locations)




 That's what I'm getting at certain areas won't do it. 

 If Biden orders it and they don't comply (which they won't let's face it) he gets made to look weak and ineffective. 

 No politician anywhere is going to volunteer to do that. Some pull it off all by themselves though.

 They might do it indirectly via employment law or federal agencies employment or on a smaller scale eg border workers or whatever.


----------



## Garthanos

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Florida Man knows that the best vaccine for covid is meth. And a pet gator. Ol’ Sam will chomp them covids!



Florida man my favorite super villain.



Zardnaar said:


> That's what I'm getting at certain areas won't do it.
> 
> If Biden orders it and they don't comply (which they won't let's face it) he gets made to look weak and ineffective.
> 
> No politician anywhere is going to volunteer to do that. Some pull it off all by themselves though.
> 
> They might do it indirectly via employment law or federal agencies employment or on a smaller scale eg border workers or whatever.



There are a number of places that are very very dependent on federal handouts and rather generally the ones most likely to be this way... there are leverage pieces in play


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Florida man my favorite super villain.
> 
> 
> There are a number of places that are very very dependent on federal handouts and rather generally the ones most likely to be this way... there are leverage pieces in play



 True but that requires playing hardball and gets back to what I said about indirect pressure. 

 Hasn't really been done since FDR? 

 Theoretically some things need done here as well but it's been 4-5 generations since it was last done.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> That requires the local authorites to enforce it.  If you get entire cities or states going nuh uh.....




Then you've got a bigger problem than COVID noncompliance.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> True but that requires playing hardball and gets back to what I said about indirect pressure.
> Hasn't really been done since FDR?



FDR was willing to checkmate the opposition to the betterment of the general welfare.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> FDR was willing to checkmate the opposition to the betterment of the general welfare.




 Yep but that was also a different time. 

 Can't serve 4 terms anymore, 40 odd years where they could checkmate the powers wanting to dismantle it etc.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> Then you've got a bigger problem than COVID noncompliance.




 I wasn't talking about revolts just they take the concept of sanctuary cities and apply it to their own beliefs. It's not letting me you can round up tens of millions of non complying citizens and vaccinate them. 

 Law says one thing people do something else. Drugs are illegal right?


----------



## Thomas Shey

Edit: This is landing well in politics, but I'll just say you're comparing apples to oranges there, Zardnaar and leave it at that.  The two situations are not comparable in law.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> Edit: This is landing well in politics, but I'll just say you're comparing apples to oranges there, Zardnaar and leave it at that.  The two situations are not comparable in law.




 I'm saying the law is irrelevant if you can't enforce it. 

 Going by what we've seen last year or so the anti vaxxers won't obey. 

 And does anyone here believe they will make vaccines mandatory? 

 Not saying they shouldn't but that they won't and even if they do enforcement will be impossible.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> I'm saying the law is irrelevant if you can't enforce it.




Then use two cases of states breaking the law in your examples.  I think you believe you did, but you didn't.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> Then use two cases of states breaking the law in your examples.  I think you believe you did, but you didn't.




 Probably can't due to the rules of the forums. City level not state. 

 I'm also arguing hypothetically. I think it's a moot point due to I doubt they will make vaccines mandatory any time soon.


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> Masks are to stop you infecting other yes?
> 
> And they're not 100% effective either afaik they just help was what I thought.
> 
> If delta gets out here there goes the game night and dining out. Mmmnnn pasta.



If everyone is wearing a mask, there's approximately a 70% reduction in transmission.


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> If everyone is wearing a mask, there's approximately a 70% reduction in transmission.




 Still leaves a 30% gap. 

Not claiming wearing mask is useless but there's a big obvious explaination here.


----------



## Mirtek

That's why Germany requires medical masks since our 3rd wave and community masks are no longer enough to be in line with c19 rules


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Still leaves a 30% gap.
> 
> Not claiming wearing mask is useless but there's a big obvious explaination here.



But a 30% gap across the board would have gotten us to a point near herd immunity…for the earliest strains of the virus.

With the transmissibility of Delta?  Yeeeeeeaaaaaaaahhhhhhh…


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> And what you gonna do ...




You do realize that this is hypothetical?  The law, regulation, or order to enact this does not currently exist.  So there's no real telling what the consequences might be.

In the landmark case in 1904, there was a fine for not getting vaccinated.  "You refuse to do what's necessary to support public health, so we will take money to help pay for the repercussions of your thick-headedness," seems appropriate.

"Sanctuary" status or protests mean very little if the Federal government wants to tax you for not being vaccinated.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Umbran said:


> You do realize that this is hypothetical?  The law, regulation, or order to enact this does not currently exist.  So there's no real telling what the consequences might be.
> 
> In the landmark case in 1904, there was a fine for not getting vaccinated.  "You refuse to do what's necessary to support public health, so we will take money to help pay for the repercussions of your thick-headedness," seems appropriate.




More importantly, I don't think that there will be government-level mandatory vaccinations.

Instead, you will just see continuing "ratcheting up" of the pressure from private parties and regulation to get vaccinated.

On the regulation side, you have NYC just mandating vaccines for indoor restaurants, gyms, and performances (plays, concerts, etc.).
On the private side, you have increasing numbers of employers and venues requires vaccination.

At a certain point, if you want to participate in public life in many states, you will need to be vaccinated- I am sure that universities and schools will have those requirements, you will need it to travel, and so on.

...of course, given polarization, it may be that you will have certain states (FLORIDA MAN RUNS ON METH, NOT MASKS) that push back and pass laws that try to prevent private requirements for masking and vaccination. 

Ugh. If someone had said, one year ago, "Hey, there are going to be widely available vaccines for every single person in the US for COVID." I would have been overcome with joy (and, admittedly, somewhat shocked). But if they had told me, "But the problem will be that people will refuse to take them, so COVID will just keep comin' back" I might have cried.


....and schools are starting up. And this is the summer. So very tired of this.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Mirtek said:


> That's why Germany requires medical masks since our 3rd wave and community masks are no longer enough to be in line with c19 rules




Do you actually have enough of a supply to make that work?  Even if you could convince everyone in the U.S., we don't have close to enough of those.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> More importantly, I don't think that there will be government-level mandatory vaccinations.
> 
> Instead, you will just see continuing "ratcheting up" of the pressure from private parties and regulation to get vaccinated.




I agree.  Federal mandates for vaccination aren't coming soon.  We might see greater federal pressure after, say a million people have died.


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> Still leaves a 30% gap.
> 
> Not claiming wearing mask is useless but there's a big obvious explaination here.



All that's ever been claimed by the experts, though, is that masks need to be worn because they help reduce transmission by a lot.  Perfection hasn't been claimed.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> All that's ever been claimed by the experts, though, is that masks need to be worn because they help reduce transmission by a lot.  Perfection hasn't been claimed.




Yes, but this discussion was about a _particular individual person_ getting covid.  And since a normal cloth mask isn't foolproof, the hospital official claiming surety that the issue wasn't PPE failure is dubious...

Unless that hospital's protocols included using (K)N-95 masks, which are a lot better than standard cloth.  I wouldn't find it implausible that the odds of ocular transmission were higher than it getting through an N-95....


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> You do realize that this is hypothetical?  The law, regulation, or order to enact this does not currently exist.  So there's no real telling what the consequences might be.
> 
> In the landmark case in 1904, there was a fine for not getting vaccinated.  "You refuse to do what's necessary to support public health, so we will take money to help pay for the repercussions of your thick-headedness," seems appropriate.
> 
> "Sanctuary" status or protests mean very little if the Federal government wants to tax you for not being vaccinated.



As with other things, it does become a bit of an issue if local government isn't onboard. They simply don't have enough law enforcement at the Federal level to enforce edicts in every city and town, so it effectively becomes moribund.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> As with other things, it does become a bit of an issue if local government isn't onboard.




The IRS is _extremely_ adept at getting at your money without any need of involvement from local law enforcement.  

Not that federal mandates are likely any time soon, but there are ways to implement them without needing to get into physical policing.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> The IRS is _extremely_ adept at getting at your money without any need of involvement from local law enforcement.
> 
> Not that federal mandates are likely any time soon, but there are ways to implement them without needing to get into physical policing.



the IRS has the advantage of being much like Rome; all roads lead to it.


----------



## Mirtek

Thomas Shey said:


> Do you actually have enough of a supply to make that work?  Even if you could convince everyone in the U.S., we don't have close to enough of those.



They were rare in early to mid 2020, but since autumn there's plenty of supply.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Mirtek said:


> They were rare in early to mid 2020, but since autumn there's plenty of supply.



Well, that's a difference; even now we likely don't have anything like the required amount.


----------



## Cadence

Message from our University president today:



> Dear Students, Faculty and Staff,
> 
> Last week, I authorized face coverings for our university community because my top priority is the safety and health of our students, faculty and staff. During my training in epidemiology, there was a maxim about transmissible diseases like COVID-19 that stated, “No one can be safe until everyone is safe.” I also remember the eradication of smallpox in 1980 through vaccination, as well as the effective vaccine control of polio, measles, mumps, rubella and other serious illnesses when I was a child. There were some side effects to the vaccines, as there are with every medication, but without doubt vaccines have saved millions of lives. Because vaccination cannot be required in South Carolina, I felt that face coverings would go a long way in preventing the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19, which is highly contagious, on campus. I did not think that the law precluded this action.
> 
> Yesterday, the University of South Carolina received a legal opinion from S.C. Attorney General Alan Wilson stating that the General Assembly intended to prohibit public universities from requiring the wearing of masks in their buildings. In light of this opinion, the university will not require anyone to wear face coverings in our buildings, except when in university health care facilities and when utilizing campus public transportation, effective August 3. We continue to strongly encourage the use of face coverings indoors, except in private offices or residence hall rooms or while eating in campus dining facilities.
> 
> I deeply respect all persons’ rights to make their own choices, and I respect our federal and state governments’ roles in guiding our university. I remain committed to encouraging all Gamecocks to wear face coverings and to get vaccinated for the benefit of themselves and others.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Harris Pastides*


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Yes, but this discussion was about a _particular individual person_ getting covid.  And since a normal cloth mask isn't foolproof, the hospital official claiming surety that the issue wasn't PPE failure is dubious...
> 
> Unless that hospital's protocols included using (K)N-95 masks, which are a lot better than standard cloth.  I wouldn't find it implausible that the odds of ocular transmission were higher than it getting through an N-95....




If we’re talking about the virologist, his mask was indeed a N-95


----------



## Maxperson

I just got word that two gaming buddies(not from my main group) have come down with Covid and one is in the hospital. Both did not get the vaccine.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> I just got word that two gaming buddies(not from my main group) have come down with Covid and one is in the hospital. Both did not get the vaccine.




So sorry to hear.  That stinks.


----------



## Garthanos

Maxperson said:


> I just got word that two gaming buddies(not from my main group) have come down with Covid and one is in the hospital. Both did not get the vaccine.



It's unfortunate issue, it took quite a bit to get my mother to have hers... I imagine it would be harder to influence friends even.


----------



## Maxperson

Garthanos said:


> It's unfortunate issue, it took quite a bit to get my mother to have hers... I imagine it would be harder to influence friends even.



Yes.  Especially since there were religious and possible political reasons for their decision.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> Yes, but this discussion was about a _particular individual person_ getting covid.  And since a normal cloth mask isn't foolproof, the hospital official claiming surety that the issue wasn't PPE failure is dubious...
> 
> Unless that hospital's protocols included using (K)N-95 masks, which are a lot better than standard cloth.  I wouldn't find it implausible that the odds of ocular transmission were higher than it getting through an N-95....



... Maybe the individual remembers being coughed on, and getting spittle in his eye.

That would be a pretty likely reason for transmission if that happened.


----------



## Garthanos

Maxperson said:


> Yes.  Especially since there were religious and possible political reasons for their decision.



pretty sure religions really never mention vaccinations.... until a bunch of antivaxxers made their own 20 seconds ago religion with that purpose.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Garthanos said:


> pretty sure religions really never mention vaccinations.... until a bunch of antivaxxers made their own 20 seconds ago religion with that purpose.



Within many faiths, there are teachings about “the mark of the beast” or man not changing what the divine hath wrought, etc., without a lot of specificity.

’Cause just like modern legislators, the people who wrote those down knew too much specificity in drafting rules meant it was easier to find loopholes to them.  In a sense, vaguer is better in some cases.  So there’s rules against cutting hair, or not cutting hair, against piecing or tattoos, what & when you can or cannot eat, what you can or cannot wear, and so forth.

Couple that with things like prophesies and so forth, and anything new and scary can be designated as against XYZ’s religion.


----------



## Ryujin

Garthanos said:


> pretty sure religions really never mention vaccinations.... until a bunch of antivaxxers made their own 20 seconds ago religion with that purpose.



It's an extension of the same interpretations that bar several from receiving transfusions so yeah, they already existed.


----------



## Garthanos

Decided not going there was a better idea...


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> pretty sure religions really never mention vaccinations....




*Mod Note:*
Religion folks?  Remember the rules?  So, we are going to drop this line of discussion.  Thanks.


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Within many faiths, there are teachings about “the mark of the beast” or man not changing what the divine hath wrought, etc., without a lot of specificity.
> 
> ’Cause just like modern legislators, the people who wrote those down knew too much specificity in drafting rules meant it was easier to find loopholes to them.  In a sense, vaguer is better in some cases.  So there’s rules against cutting hair, or not cutting hair, against piecing or tattoos, what & when you can or cannot eat, what you can or cannot wear, and so forth.
> 
> Couple that with things like prophesies and so forth, and anything new and scary can be designated as against XYZ’s religion.



Edit: Nevermid.  Just saw the mod post.


----------



## GreyLord

Well, I'm am very glad I am vaccinated.  People in my area are not really vaccinated all that much in any great percentage.  Thus far, I don't think it's hit high numbers, but it's coming (and coming fast...we can't evade the massive rise in cases all around us.  The city nearby has had a major spike, we've just been luck thus far, but with all the unvaccinated, it cannot be long).

I believe the deaths unofficially (not the official numbers) of Covid deaths in the US already number over 1 million (not that anyone is talkinga bout it...and these are preliminary numbers that won't be finalized for over a year from now anyways).

My group is talking about going on hiatus once again just to be on the cautious side (and we are all vaccinated!  This is really unfair that we are even talking about this because some others don't care enough about others or themselves to get vaccinated in the first place) and going online again.  We JUST STARTED meeting in person again and we are thinking about going online again!?

This really sucks for anyone who has tried their best to keep the rules and do their best to be safe.  It really stinks.  I really liked meeting in person for RPGs...and I hate that the situation has risen so quickly that we may be going online again.  It's just not...the same.

We need to make a decision this weekend I feel (cases are rising dramatically in communities all around us and I think it's only a matter of time before it hits us hard)...and I think it's going to be the choice to go online completely again.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Zardnaar said:


> And does anyone here believe they will make vaccines mandatory?



Yes.


----------



## Zardnaar

Jabby Mc Jab Jab done. No side effects but I think I have a new favorite song. 



 In other news the qurantine system is booked out to around November. Economy is growing and unemployment is down to 4%. Upward pressure on wages. 










						Labour market predicted to be strong as immigration slows - recruiter
					

A student job recruiter says these are unprecedented times for the labour market, as youth unemployment drops and job listings soar.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Keep waiting for the penny to drop.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz




----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The SARS at night
Hides in plain sight
_* clap _* * _clap _* * _clap _* * _clap *_
Deep in the heart of Texas!

A few weeks ago, the Catholic Diocese of Dallas set a reopening date of August 15th to end the dispensation for attending mass and for all the faithful to return to live services.  No overarching rules were given to the individual parishes- each church would decide how to to handle the concerns of distancing, masking, etc.

Sooooo…with Delta raging across Texas now- coupled with Gov. Abbot’s order preventing municipalities and government branches from issuing their own orders- some of us are questioning the wisdom of proceeding with that plan, and should be reconsidered.  That in mind, Mom (75yo, lifelong Catholic) sent a carefully worded email to our bishop asking for guidance last night.  We shall see…


----------



## Zardnaar

Mass vaccinations starting now. Better late than never. 

NZers 'embracing the vaccine': Nearly 1 million active bookings

 One site put through 11000 in one day. One I went to was in the mall they converted a department store.

 Ant vaxxers down to 9%. Current theory here is rather than bombard them with facts etc more one on one work emphasis community seems to work better convincing them.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Ant vaxxers down to 9%. Current theory here is rather than bombard them with facts etc more one on one work emphasis community seems to work better convincing them.




That's not at all surprising.  I'm glad you've got folks working that angle.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> That's not at all surprising.  I'm glad you've got folks working that angle.




 Alot of ads targeting those groups and the mass vaccination in Auckland was in the target area. 

 They're also rolling out mobile vaccines for rural areas so the farmers can Access them easier. 









						Thousands expected at NZ's first rural mass Covid-19 vaccination clinic
					

Thousands of people are expected to turn up to New Zealand's first rural mass Covid-19 vaccination event at Stratford today and tomorrow.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




  Some people have managed to skip the line as some areas are using leftovers if people bturn up. 

  Basically you book on your phone or ring them up. Had to scan in and sanitize the hands and join the line. Took about ten minutes of waiting then had to sit for 20 minutes.

 You get a fold out brochere with what to expect and possible side effects. You get the choice of Pfizer, Pfizer or Pfizer. It's almost idiot proof.

Hope I got the extra microchips. Gotta collect that free iphone.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Remember the suggestion that anti-vaxxers should have to pay more for insurance, etc.?  Some were worried about the precepts it might set.

Well, apparently that precedent has already been set with other risky behaviors BESIDES use of tobacco or alcohol.  Sooooo…


> Health insurers already do charge more to people who smoke and are permitted in many states to exclude coverage when injuries arise from illegal acts or under the influence of drugs – including alcohol.











						Don't want the COVID-19 vaccine? Then pay the full cost if you land in the hospital
					

Standing up for your belief in personal responsibility means being willing to bear the consequences. Otherwise it’s just cheap talk.




					www.marketwatch.com


----------



## Cadence

K-12 starts here again in a bit over a week.  State law prevents requiring masks (but the district changed the dress code to allow them at least, and will still go virtual if over 5% of the students test positive).  A friend from PA said some parents there were saying they'd lie and send their kids to school with positive tests anyway, so bleh.     Pondering virtual options for a semester (state has some, district doesn't).


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Happy to say my kids are fully vaccinated! In fact, my entire extended family is (barring one crazy uncle who lives an hour away). He says that his reasoning is that his now-deceased wife (unrelated long time poor health) once got sick from a flu shot, is why he won't get the vaccine. No amount of explaining how that has so very little in relation to HIM getting a covid-vaccine... Not to mention that he will never be invited to visit his own mother (94 and a germaphobe _before_ this pandemic). None of that has helped him.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well, apparently that precedent has already been set with other risky behaviors BESIDES use of tobacco or alcohol.  Sooooo…



Okay, so there's that.  

In my state, at least, this would still need governmental cooperation - right now, in MA, insurance companies are _required_ to pay for covid-related expenses (in full, IIRC - if you are insured in MA, hospital treatment for covid can't bankrupt you).  That would have to change before such a plan comes into effect.


----------



## J.Quondam

Cadence said:


> some parents were saying they'd lie and send their kids to school with positive tests anyway,



 
Some people in this country really need to "enjoy" some serious consequences for their grotesque view of their own rights and responsibilities.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

J.Quondam said:


> Some people in this country really need to "enjoy" some serious consequences for their grotesque view of their own rights and responsibilities.




Unfortunately, that's not how it works. 

It's like the vaccination/mask thing. I've been so many places and seen that they "require" masks for the unvaccinated. 

... I know what the numbers are. I know that a good number of the people aren't vaccinated. In fact, that strategy can't work, because there is almost a perfect correlation between the people who refuse to get vaccinated, and those who refuse to mask.


----------



## J.Quondam

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Unfortunately, that's not how it works.
> 
> It's like the vaccination/mask thing. I've been so many places and seen that they "require" masks for the unvaccinated.
> 
> ... I know what the numbers are. I know that a good number of the people aren't vaccinated. In fact, that strategy can't work, because there is almost a perfect correlation between the people who refuse to get vaccinated, and those who refuse to mask.



Yeah, I know. I'm just venting frustration, not seriously suggesting a strategy.
Like everyone else not blinkered by the disinformation bubble, I just wish we'd get past the entitlement mentality and get our collective shizzle together, like what @Zardnaar has been relating about New Zealand. It's way past time to just git 'er done!*
But we won't, because America is what it is.

_* I can say that. I'm a Texan._


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The C19 policies in Texas are a mess, moreso for the schools.  Besides Abbot’s masking policy ban, there’s also the policy that says sending kids home  if they test positive is _optional.  _Some parents at school meetings on the news were in tears.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The C19 policies in Texas are a mess, moreso for the schools.  Besides Abbot’s masking policy ban, there’s also the policy that says sending kids home  if they test positive is _optional.  _Some parents at school meetings on the news were in tears.




Florida says, "Hold my beer meth."

From what I understand, Florida's main Covid-19 policy is to pretend that they are the Outback Restaurant of states.
"Hey, c'mon down, no rules, just right."


----------



## CleverNickName

Thanks to low vaccination rates and pushback on mask mandates, it looks like Oregon is heading for another lockdown.  This is going to make things even harder for the local businesses that depend on foot traffic and in-person purchases.  Ironically, the people most responsible for the new lockdown are the ones who will be the most negatively-impacted.  SMH


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Florida says, "Hold my beer meth."
> 
> From what I understand, Florida's main Covid-19 policy is to pretend that they are the Outback Restaurant of states.
> "Hey, c'mon down, no rules, just right."



There’s a reason FL & TX are leading the charge into the Valley of Death.


----------



## Cadence

I just want...

(1) The vaccine approval for under 12 to be soon and school to be virtual until then
(2) No variants to show up that regularly evade the vaccine effect for serious symptoms
(3) Much of the rest of the world to be even 1/4 as fortunate as the US in terms of vaccine availability

I wish I thought I'd get any of those three.


----------



## Cadence

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s a reason FL & TX are leading the charge into the Valley of Death.




Speaking of Florida...  
Texas looks to be about a week and a half behind.
(from COVID Data Tracker )


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s a reason FL & TX are leading the charge into the Valley of Death.



And it's a darned-sight more than just "The 600."


----------



## Umbran

I know people, smart people, good people, not anti-vaxx types, who live in Florida and Texas.

What I cannot for the life of me understand is why they _stay_ there.


----------



## J.Quondam

Umbran said:


> I know people, smart people, good people, not anti-vaxx types, who live in Florida and Texas.
> 
> What I cannot for the life of me understand is why they _stay_ there.



I've discovered that home is home, and moving isn't easy.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I know people, smart people, good people, not anti-vaxx types, who live in Florida and Texas.
> 
> What I cannot for the life of me understand is why they _stay_ there.



Well, I have to say that in many (non-pandemicy) ways, life here is pretty good.  In the cities at least.  We have really good and growing ethnic p/cultural/cuisine diversity.  Access to a broad variety of arts & sports at all levels- unless you’re talking something ultra-niche, if it’s available anywhere in the USA, we have it here.  Sure, summers are hot and we get droughts & tornadoes, but we don’t have to shovel snow.

And additionally for folks like me and my Dad…we’re also licensed in Texas, and don’t want to have to jump through our professions’ respective hoops to be licensed elsewhere.  In fact, he gave up his license for Louisiana (our home state) a while back.

Are there things I miss from other regions of the country?  Most definitely.  Before I became so deeply rooted here, I looked into returning to the Sea-Tac area, moving to San Francisco or Chicago, or trying out someplace new like Miami, NYC Boston, etc.  But for a variety of reasons, I never made a move like that.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sure, summers are hot and we get droughts & tornadoes...




... and when it is too hot or too cold, don't expect to have things other people take for granted, like electricity...

Admittedly, I haven't lived through it all, but... if my local government cannot provide basic infrastructure or public health... that seems like a sign to get the heck out of Dodge.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well, I have to say that in many (non-pandemicy) ways, life here is pretty good.  In the cities at least.  We have really good and growing ethnic p/cultural/cuisine diversity.  Access to a broad variety of arts & sports at all levels- unless you’re talking something ultra-niche, if it’s available anywhere in the USA, we have it here.  Sure, summers are hot and we get droughts & tornadoes, but we don’t have to shovel snow.
> 
> And additionally for folks like me and my Dad…we’re also licensed in Texas, and don’t want to have to jump through our professions’ respective hoops to be licensed elsewhere.  In fact, he gave up his license for Louisiana (our home state) a while back.
> 
> Are there things I miss from other regions of the country?  Most definitely.  Before I became so deeply rooted here, I looked into returning to the Sea-Tac area, moving to San Francisco or Chicago, or trying out someplace new like Miami, NYC Boston, etc.  But for a variety of reasons, I never made a move like that.



I've become quite fond of the SeaTac area, over the last few years. Mountains within an hour's drive away. Oceanfront out the door. At this point I think that I might also have more friends there, than I do in the Toronto area. If I was to move somewhere, that would likely be where I'd go.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> I know people, smart people, good people, not anti-vaxx types, who live in Florida and Texas.
> 
> What I cannot for the life of me understand is why they _stay_ there.




 Never under estimate the appeal of warm weather.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Never under estimate the appeal of good weather.




Good weather?  Given that it was the weather that took down the power grid, both in summer and winter, leaving folks without cooling or heating, I'm not sure that description is appropriate at this point.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> I know people, smart people, good people, not anti-vaxx types, who live in Florida and Texas.
> 
> What I cannot for the life of me understand is why they _stay_ there.



When you asked them, what did they say?


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Good weather?  Given that it was the weather that took down the power grid, both in summer and winter, leaving folks without cooling or heating, I'm not sure that description is appropriate at this point.




 My sister tried to talk my brother into visiting with his kids. Sibling reunion take the kids up the Waitaki Valley and into the Alps. In winter. 

 He declined "it's to cold". Gotten soft in his old age turned into a jafa (just another bleep Aucklander". 

 Mild winter this year it's hardly even freezing.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> I know people, smart people, good people, not anti-vaxx types, who live in Florida and Texas.
> 
> What I cannot for the life of me understand is why they _stay_ there.




When I moved to South Carolina 20+ years ago it was the butt of a lot of jokes, in a lot of bad news, and at the very bottom of a bunch of lists.  I'm amazed at how many states worked really hard over the next two decades to make us look better... even though we haven't particularly changed.

[And we're still under 2 hours to the coast, under 2 hours to the mountains, the flowers start blooming in February, and folks from Florida laugh when you say you think it's hot here.]


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> When you asked them, what did they say?




I don't talk with them frequently enough for this to be a topic of conversation.  When you only speak to friends once in a very long while, you prioritize what you discuss.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> When I moved to South Carolina 20+ years ago it was the butt of a lot of jokes, in a lot of bad news, and at the very bottom of a bunch of lists.  I'm amazed at how many states worked really hard over the next two decades to make us look better... even though we haven't particularly changed.
> 
> [And we're still under 2 hours to the coast, under 2 hours to the mountains, the flowers start blooming in February, and folks from Florida laugh when you say you think it's hot here.]




 Is there a big difference between north and south Carolina? 

 Watch a YouTube video on a city in North Carolina and it reminded me of NZ a little and housing is a lot cheaper. Looked mild but not to hot. It was up near the mountains around 100k population.


----------



## Zardnaar

Rural mass vaccination around 33 people every 10 minutes. 









						Taranaki residents relieved, pleased to be vaccinated against Covid-19
					

Hundreds line up for the country's first rural mass Covid-19 vaccination event in Stratford today.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




  Farms, farms more farms and still more farms if one is bored. Article has a nice boring photo of a waiting area.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> ... and when it is too hot or too cold, don't expect to have things other people take for granted, like electricity...
> 
> Admittedly, I haven't lived through it all, but... if my local government cannot provide basic infrastructure or public health... that seems like a sign to get the heck out of Dodge.



No question, the power grid has gotten worse over the past decade.  You know, since the previous massive winter power outage.

OTOH, our house has excellent LoS for potentially going solar, which we’re seriously looking at.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ryujin said:


> I've become quite fond of the SeaTac area, over the last few years. Mountains within an hour's drive away. Oceanfront out the door. At this point I think that I might also have more friends there, than I do in the Toronto area. If I was to move somewhere, that would likely be where I'd go.



One of my best summers as a kid was spent on a road trip up & down the pacific coast in the 1970s.  Hit a couple theme parks.  Saw some whales as we drove, and some incredible totem poles.  Ate lots of seafood. Bought seashells at little stores in little towns.


----------



## GreyLord

Umbran said:


> I know people, smart people, good people, not anti-vaxx types, who live in Florida and Texas.
> 
> What I cannot for the life of me understand is why they _stay_ there.




Many reasons...

1.  NO snow...most of the time.

2.  NO SNOW...most of the time

3.  NO SNOW...MOST OF THE TIME.

Oh...and

4.  Beaches with lots of sun and surf

5.  It rains and waters your grass.  You never have to water grass (but you DO have to mow at least weekly during spring/summer/fall), it grows naturally.  You just have to worry about weeds.

6.  NO SNOW...

Unfortunately, part of my family hates the allergies...and they had a LOT Of allergies in Florida...


----------



## FitzTheRuke

I get NO SNOW (most of the time) too, and I live in Canada! (And if I WANT SNOW, it's about 45 minutes to the nearest ski slope, where we DO have snow).

Normally, I have to put up with a lot of rain in trade for mild seasons, but that seems to be changing. I mean, I live in a rainforest, and it's finally raining today after whatisit nine or ten weeks? Gonna see some happy plants today.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> I know people, smart people, good people, not anti-vaxx types, who live in Florida and Texas.
> 
> What I cannot for the life of me understand is why they _stay_ there.



Because it's where my stuff is. And the container holding my stuff is almost paid off. And selling that to move will set me back 20 years because prices have gone up everywhere.

Also, if every good man fled because the majority seemed to choose evil, then evil would most certainly win.


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> Because it's where my stuff is.




Okay, admittedly, I am finding I care less and less about physical stuff as time goes on.  There's a lot of stuff in my house, but if much of it went away... well, it is just _stuff_.  I have a hard time giving it the priority others do.



Janx said:


> Also, if every good man fled because the majority seemed to choose evil, then evil would most certainly win.




Yeah, that sounds good, until you start thinking about tactical situations, and the Alamo.  If one is not _smart_ about their choices, they lose anyway.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

And a legal consideration is starting to become more relevant:








						If your employer fires you because you won't get the COVID vaccine, don't expect to collect unemployment
					

'This could lead to tens of thousands of people across the United States without work or access to unemployment benefits because they refuse to get...




					www.marketwatch.com


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> Yeah, that sounds good, until you start thinking about tactical situations, and the Alamo.  If one is not _smart_ about their choices, they lose anyway.



Like the Easter Rising in Ireland, losing that siege at the Alamo ultimately enabled the Texians to win the war. So there's the tactical and personal decision, and then there's strategic long view. I'm not advocating martyrdom, but sometimes a tactical disadvantage pays off.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> Okay, admittedly, I am finding I care less and less about physical stuff as time goes on.  There's a lot of stuff in my house, but if much of it went away... well, it is just _stuff_.  I have a hard time giving it the priority others do.
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah, that sounds good, until you start thinking about tactical situations, and the Alamo.  If one is not _smart_ about their choices, they lose anyway.



well, the Stuff bit was a Tick joke, but the house is almost paid off.  And I got a good deal on it 20 years ago that even though the value doubled if I sold it, that money as a down payment would leave me owing more than the original mortgage meaning I'd be paying much more  than I do now, for much, much longer.

As to the other part, that strays into politics.  But consider, if I leave, because I am privileged enough to do so, that's one less vote standing in unison with the disadvantaged who can't leave. That don't sit right with me. So I'll take the same risks they're stuck with and do my civic duty. Because like it or not, this is where my stuff is.


----------



## Janx

billd91 said:


> Like the Easter Rising in Ireland, losing that siege at the Alamo ultimately enabled the Texians to win the war. So there's the tactical and personal decision, and then there's strategic long view. I'm not advocating martyrdom, but sometimes a tactical disadvantage pays off.



Also, are we talking me voting, general Covid-ness, or the likes of January 6 happening all over.  I got a plan for the latter because I saw the signs. They were in my neighbor's yards.


----------



## Garthanos

GreyLord said:


> Many reasons...
> 
> 1.  NO snow...most of the time.



When I lived in Florida I missed crisp Nebraska mornings...  but I did learn I could tan.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Garthanos said:


> When I lived in Florida I missed crisp Nebraska mornings...  but I did learn I could tan.




I can't. No matter what I do.


----------



## Zardnaar

I can tan I just don't since I was a kid. 

 Good ol hole in ozone layer 15 minutes outside can burn you.


----------



## Eltab

FitzTheRuke said:


> I can't. No matter what I do.



I don't tan, or there is a very short window during which I am tan.
I just burn.  The first tickle / itch I feel, it's already too late.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Is there a big difference between north and south Carolina?
> 
> Watch a YouTube video on a city in North Carolina and it reminded me of NZ a little and housing is a lot cheaper. Looked mild but not to hot. It was up near the mountains around 100k population.




Temperature wise SC averages about 5 degrees warmer than NC, which is enough to give us alligators in, say, 1/3rd of the state.

Size wise SC is roughly 1/2 the area and 1/2 the population of NC.  NC has the research triangle universities of UNC, NCState, and Duke which is a huge difference.  Politically, our legislature seems to be a bit less extreme as a group lately, but our governor is a D and theirs is an R.

Housing in my area of central SC had been about $95-$115 per square foot until recently... it's gone crazy the past few months.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Temperature wise SC averages about 5 degrees warmer than NC, which is enough to give us alligators in, say, 1/3rd of the state.
> 
> Size wise SC is roughly 1/2 the area and 1/2 the population of NC.  NC has the research triangle universities of UNC, NCState, and Duke which is a huge difference.  Politically, our legislature seems to be a bit less extreme as a group lately, but our governor is a D and theirs is an R.
> 
> Housing in my area of central SC had been about $95-$115 per square foot until recently... it's gone crazy the past few months.




 25% in one-year crazy? 

 Covid bailouts along with some statements from the PM poured gasoline onto a raging fire. 

  So yeah housing crisis got a lot worse with Covid.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> 25% in one-year crazy?
> 
> Covid bailouts along with some statements from the PM poured gasoline onto a raging fire.
> 
> So yeah housing crisis got a lot worse with Covid.



The automatic estimate site has ours up about 15% (of course it had just recovered from the 2008 crash late last year).  Some other areas sound like they've gone completely crazy with some combination of lack of new housing starts (lumber costs), millennials getting to home buying stage, microscopic interest rates, and a raft of people with too much money starting to buy multiple houses as investments using cash.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> The automatic estimate site has ours up about 15% (of course it had just recovered from the 2008 crash late last year).  Some other areas sound like they've gone completely crazy with some combination of lack of new housing starts (lumber costs), millennials getting to home buying stage, microscopic interest rates, and a raft of people with too much money starting to buy multiple houses as investments using cash.




 Millennials here can't buy without bank of mum and dad. 

 2008 barely effected things here housing been going up since 2003/4 or so. 

 But hit critical mass last 5 years or so where they doubled in price. 15-25% tax free gains per year. 

 Think our house tripled in price less than ten years. 

  Now with Covid related supplies shortages and inflation I don't see that changing anytime soon. 

 Average price is around double the UK price last I looked and on social media people are looking at USA for cheap housing as Australia same things happening. 

 Other side effect is people aren't selling. If you sell up and it takes you six months to find a new house you might end up paying an extra 100k.

 Google tells me the average house is 820k so 600k in USD. In the capital and Auckland add another couple of hundred grand. 

 Think we're just gonna renovate but idk how that will work with Covid shortages.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

I just sold a 1000 sq ft two bedroom condo for $650K (Canadian which translates to $518K USD or $740K NZD for Zard). Our real estate is crazy.


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> I just sold a 1000 sq ft two bedroom condo for $650K (Canadian which translates to $518K USD or $740K NZD for Zard). Our real estate is crazy.




 Vancouver? I know parts of Canada are going crazy. 

  Cheap loans plus better gains than sharemarket.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Zardnaar said:


> Vancouver? I know parts of Canada are going crazy.
> 
> Cheap loans plus better gains than sharemarket.




A suburb of Vancouver, yes. (Much more expensive IN town).  I've been reading a book on how our housing prices are jacked up by the Pacific international heroin trade, of all things. (Not surprising, really, but kinda sad). EDIT: For reference, so that makes more sense, it's because the Triads are laundering money by buying real estate, not because my city is a drug ghetto.


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> A suburb of Vancouver, yes. (Much more expensive IN town).  I've been reading a book on how our housing prices are jacked up by the Pacific international heroin trade, of all things. (Not surprising, really, but kinda sad). EDIT: For reference, so that makes more sense, it's because the Triads are laundering money by buying real estate, not because my city is a drug ghetto.




 I knew Vancouver was expensive. 

 Aucklands 1.1 million ($770 k usd) average. Think my suburb is $680k (500k usd). In a city of 120k.

 Overseas though you can move somewhere cheaper. Small towns here are going for $280k+ and the absolute cheapest (NZ boondocks Appalachian equivalent) is still 200k+ usd. 

 A grand total of 3% of the population live there and if you don't mind 2000mm+ of rain a year.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FitzTheRuke said:


> I just sold a 1000 sq ft two bedroom condo for $650K (Canadian which translates to $518K USD or $740K NZD for Zard). Our real estate is crazy.



Yet another reason to live in Texas: even our pricey real estate is cheaper.  I live in one of the upper middle class suburbs of Dallas, and $520k will get you a house somewhere around 2200sq ft.

There are suburbs here where that will get you closer to 5000 sq ft.

(There are also suburbs here where that will get you living in someone’s pool cabana…)


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yet another reason to live in Texas: even our pricey real estate is cheaper.  I live in one of the upper middle class suburbs of Dallas, and $520k will get you a house somewhere around 2200sq ft.
> 
> There are suburbs here where that will get you closer to 5000 sq ft.
> 
> (There are also suburbs here where that will get you living in someone’s pool cabana…)




 My friend in Houston made me cry. She's not in the best neighborhood but Houston seems cheap . Nicer areas are about half the price than here.

 Grass is always greener if you cashed up that's great but you would have to work and save at the local conditions if you're not/young. 

 With Covid leaving is easy enough. Returning is a lit harder.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> My friend in Houston made me cry. She's not in the best neighborhood but Houston seems cheap . Nicer areas are about half the price than here.
> 
> Grass is always greener if you cashed up that's great but you would have to work and save at the local conditions if you're not/young.
> 
> With Covid leaving is easy enough. Returning is a lit harder.



Dooooon’t even think about a move to Houston.  To be clear, there’s lots of nifty things going on in that city, but their zoning laws are among the most relaxed in the state.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Dooooon’t even think about a move to Houston.  To be clear, there’s lots of nifty things going on in that city, but their zoning laws are among the most relaxed in the state.




 I'm not lol. But yeah probably gonna have a brain drain here post Covid. Or next year.


----------



## J.Quondam

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Dooooon’t even think about a move to Houston.  To be clear, there’s lots of nifty things going on in that city, but their zoning laws are among the most relaxed in the state.




What? You mean being constantly worried that your home might become  sandwiched between a stripmall, a hospital, and a refinery _doesn't_ appeal to you???


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> ...and a raft of people with too much money starting to buy multiple houses as investments using cash.




In many places in the US, there's people, and more usually companies, buying up homes for use as Air B&B properties.


----------



## Zardnaar

I think the nice looking city was Asheville in North Carolina. One of my online gaming mates was in NC and some kiwis post Covid were asking about nice places to move to in the states that weren't LA, NYC etc.


----------



## J.Quondam

Umbran said:


> In many places in the US, there's people, and more usually companies, buying up homes for use as Air B&B properties.



Yeah. And that seems to be part of what's pushing up rents alongside housing prices in a lot of places.

People in the bottom half of the economy are just screwed. 
And those who can't just relocate on a whim are even more so.


----------



## Zardnaar

J.Quondam said:


> Yeah. And that seems to be part of what's pushing up rents alongside housing prices in a lot of places.
> 
> People in the bottom half of the economy are just screwed.
> And those who can't just relocate on a whim are even more so.




Here it's unsustainable population growth (25% in 15 years or so) followed by the usual problems (Airbnb, red tape, NIMBYism etc) and Covid relief. 

 And no capital gains tax. 

 Joke here is my house earned more than me last year tax free. 

 Of course if you bought your property years ago ka-ching. 

 Throw in post Covid effects. 

 In latest news another USA billionaire who "invested" 10 million three months ago got residency and accessed hospital services for family. He was holed up in Fiji.









						Larry Page applied for $10m NZ residency three months before medevac flight
					

Page's residency application came three months before he came to NZ on a medevac flight for his child.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Basically if you're rich enough you can skip the line and get around border controls.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> In many places in the US, there's people, and more usually companies, buying up homes for use as Air B&B properties.



I was just reading an article a couple weeks ago about certain venture capital firms buying up houses all over the place, sometimes whole neighborhoods at a time.  They’re often bidding hundreds of thousands over asking price.  Their goal is turning homes into rentals.*  Doing this:

1) shrinks the market for affordable single family houses by reducing supply and distorting future asking prices.  Home ownership gets placed further out of reach for more people.
2) drives up property tax rates, hurting homeowners and smaller multi-property owners in those neighborhoods, which may force them to sell.  I know people in each category facing this- so far, none have been forced to sell.






* as the old joke goes, “Here comes the neighborhood!”


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I was just reading an article a couple weeks ago about certain venture capital firms buying up houses all over the place, sometimes whole neighborhoods at a time.  They’re often bidding hundreds of thousands over asking price.  Their goal is turning homes into rentals.*  Doing this:
> 
> 1) shrinks the market for affordable single family houses by reducing supply and distorting future asking prices.  Home ownership gets placed further out of reach for more people.
> 2) drives up property tax rates, hurting homeowners and smaller multi-property owners in those neighborhoods, which may force them to sell.  I know people in each category facing this- so far, none have been forced to sell.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> * as the old joke goes, “Here comes the neighborhood!”




 We don't really have the corporations doing it but larger investors. Something like two thirds of housing is bought up by investors. 

 They can't really drive up local taxes though. Rates are set by the councils who try to keep them low as possible. 

 Isn't it easier in USA to build though hypothetically keeping prices down? Young ones here don't believe me when I say the same things happening in UK/USA/Canada/Australia.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> We don't really have the corporations doing it but larger investors. Something like two thirds of housing is bought up by investors.
> 
> They can't really drive up local taxes though. Rates are set by the councils who try to keep them low as possible.
> 
> Isn't it easier in USA to build though hypothetically keeping prices down? Young ones here don't believe me when I say the same things happening in UK/USA/Canada/Australia.



Even here, supplies are finite. 

When we built our house in 1997, there was both a concrete shortage AND a labor shortage.  It added months to construction time.*  That’s _without_ any major storms happening near enough to further sap available building supplies for effecting repairs.






* Awkwardly, the house we were vacating and put on the market sold in just a few days.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Even here, supplies are finite.
> 
> When we built our house in 1997, there was both a concrete shortage AND a labor shortage.  It added months to construction time.*  That’s _without_ any major storms happening near enough to further sap available building supplies for effecting repairs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> * Awkwardly, the house we were vacating and put on the market sold in just a few days.




 In 90's I remember being told not to go to trade school. 

 These days they're creaming it. I just look at the ratios sisters house was 3 years (1993)average income, ours was 5,  now it's 12.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

We just got news that a close friend’s daughter and son-in-law are both hospitalized with Covid, in a rural hospital in or near the reservation, God help them. So she may be pressed into taking care of her young teenaged grandkids. From hearing only one side of the conversation, it seems like the boy may be mask-averse. (No idea if that’s from his parents, or what little sis is thinking.)

His nana is in her 70s, and has a buttload of afflictions. His grandpa is fighting stomach cancer. Mom told her to double mask *before* chewing off his metaphorical, rightfully pointing out if they (the grandparents) get sick, the kids will be up naughty word creek.

And after THAT call ended, she looked at me and said she’s probably not going to mass, dispensation or not, Bishop changing his mind or not. She’s also talking about not letting Dad or me go, either. Nevermind that- even on normal Sundays- I’m farther from the altar than almost any other attendee.

This from a woman who, as a kid, walked herself to & from Church at times when her mom lapsed from practice and couldn’t be bothered. _I’ve never met this lady._


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> Isn't it easier in USA to build though hypothetically keeping prices down?



Depends on where in the US you look.  California's permitting process has been made into a bundle of red tape and fees and delays.  Indiana in contrast a developer can pretty much buy the next farm along a road into town, plat it as a subdivision, get the permitting OK, and start building (big expensive) homes.
There does seem to be a 'entry barrier' for single-family starter homes.  XL mansions are buildable once you have lined up a wealthy patron to buy it.  Apartment buildings have almost Most Favored Habitation status.  But something modest-sized, for empty-nesters or newlyweds?  Few and far between.
And of course letting only a few new houses be built for the market increases price for existing houses when lots of new people want to move into town.


----------



## Thomas Shey

I don't know where you're at where its easier to build apartments than tract housing, but its not most parts of California.


----------



## Cadence

Thomas Shey said:


> I don't know where you're at where its easier to build apartments than tract housing, but its not most parts of California.



It feels like it's at least as easy in any South Carolina city where the zoning allows it...


----------



## J.Quondam

Eltab said:


> Depends on where in the US you look.  California's permitting process has been made into a bundle of red tape and fees and delays.  Indiana in contrast a developer can pretty much buy the next farm along a road into town, plat it as a subdivision, get the permitting OK, and start building (big expensive) homes.
> There does seem to be a 'entry barrier' for single-family starter homes.  XL mansions are buildable once you have lined up a wealthy patron to buy it.  Apartment buildings have almost Most Favored Habitation status.  But something modest-sized, for empty-nesters or newlyweds?  Few and far between.
> And of course letting only a few new houses be built for the market increases price for existing houses when lots of new people want to move into town.



Yeah, the lack of small homes is really frustrating for anyone looking to either start out or downsize. Seems any existing modest home is either rotted away ("needs TLC!"), or are eyepoppingly overpriced in chic neighborhoods. And ask about smaller (say, <1000sqft) homes in a newer developments? LoL! There's just no incentive for developers to build "cozy" homes when they can _spend a little_ more to build a bigger place that they can _sell for a lot_ more.

For a huge and growing segment of the population, the hope of being a homeowner has been absolutely murdered. And it's getting to where even renting a place that isn't trash is becoming an unachievable dream for many in the bottom half.


----------



## Zardnaar

J.Quondam said:


> Yeah, the lack of small homes is really frustrating for anyone looking to either start out or downsize. Seems any existing modest home is either rotted away ("needs TLC!"), or are eyepoppingly overpriced in chic neighborhoods. And ask about smaller (say, <1000sqft) homes in a newer developments? LoL! There's just no incentive for developers to build "cozy" homes when they can _spend a little_ more to build a bigger place that they can _sell for a lot_ more.
> 
> For a huge and growing segment of the population, the hope of being a homeowner has been absolutely murdered. And it's getting to where even renting a place that isn't trash is becoming an unachievable dream for many in the bottom half.




 Similar here there's no money in building small homes. The extra cost of the materials is marginal relative to other costs eg connecting electricity and water. 

 Unlike USA you can't move somewhere that much cheaper unless you don't mind moving way out into the boon docks.


----------



## Cadence

Gaming friend with an ill (non-Covid) family member tried to use the local ER.  The three closest hospitals are over capacity.  Mercifully their condition improved while waiting and they'll use their family practitioner.


----------



## J.Quondam

Zardnaar said:


> Unlike USA you can't move somewhere that much cheaper unless you don't mind moving way out into the boon docks.



Such a nice side effect of all those fancy new billionaires neighbors of yours, heh.

But yeah, you're basically right: there _are_ some relatively inexpensively markets here in the US. Problem is, they're inexpensive for a reason: namely because few people actually want to move there. 
But those are also exactly the sorts of places I'm looking at moving to, so we'll see.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Isn't it easier in USA to build though hypothetically keeping prices down?




If you want to put a house in the middle of nowhere, a hundred miles from any job, sure, you can do that cheap.  But the urban areas are already built up to (and somewhat beyond) the carrying capacity for the infrastructure around them.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Just found out that, while the aforementioned friend’s daughter is in the hospital, she does not have a room yet. She’s stuck in an ER bay because of there being no rooms left.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> If you want to put a house in the middle of nowhere, a hundred miles from any job, sure, you can do that cheap.  But the urban areas are already built up to (and somewhat beyond) the carrying capacity for the infrastructure around them.




Honestly, it usually comes down to the two out of three thing: A place that's reasonably priced, that's anywhere even halfway nice, and that's conveniently positioned.  Pick two.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Just found out that, while the aforementioned friend’s daughter is in the hospital, she does not have a room yet. She’s stuck in an ER bay because of there being no rooms left.




Let's just say I was _super_ glad that when I had my atrial fibrillation event a few months ago, I had it happen _after _vaccination was picking up and before _Delta_.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> If you want to put a house in the middle of nowhere, a hundred miles from any job, sure, you can do that cheap.  But the urban areas are already built up to (and somewhat beyond) the carrying capacity for the infrastructure around them.



There's still quite a bit of land within 20 miles of most of the metro areas in central South Carolina.  Whether the infrastructure is good for as many as we need is an entirely different matter...


----------



## Cadence

Any news on how quick it should be to make variant vaccines for Covid  (if they can) like they do annually for the flu? (Hopefully quicker than for the flu?)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Cadence said:


> Any news on how quick it should be to make variant vaccines for Covid  (if they can) like they do annually for the flu? (Hopefully quicker than for the flu?)



Nothing hard & fast.

So far, all the data suggests that the major vaccines- IOW, not Sinovax- are still mostly effective Vs all known variants.  And current research suggests that boosters of the same formulas will shore up the body’s immune responses even in cases where the variants are showing a bit of resistance.

More to the point, though, the speed at which a vaccine could be developed against a variant that is truly resistant to the current formulas- singularly or in “cocktails”- would depend greatly on WHY the mutations are resistant.


----------



## Hussar

On the housing thing - I just bought a house here in Japan.  Nice two story 1200 square foot house (or thereabouts).  House is about 15 years old.  My parents house in Southern Ontario, 30 km from London (for those who know the area), is just shy of 50 years old and in a tiny podunk town of about 1000 people.  Just sold for nearly double what I paid for my house here in Japan.  :wow:  The housing market in Ontario is ludicrous.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> If you want to put a house in the middle of nowhere, a hundred miles from any job, sure, you can do that cheap.  But the urban areas are already built up to (and somewhat beyond) the carrying capacity for the infrastructure around them.




 I'm talking about something like a state capital or a town 5000-50000. 

 Somewhere you can get a job but options are limited. My hometown pop 13k a house is around 280k usd(about 70k when I left in 2000). 

 Where I was born (4-5k) is approaching 700k usd. The absolute cheapest you could find was 140k a year or two ago not sure what that would cost now. That's our version of West Virginia ex coal mining country.


----------



## GreyLord

There are several reasons why housing has gone up.

ONE that hits an unpopular nerve is the moratorium on evictions in certain places.  I am against kicking people out usually, but there are times when it gets extreme.

For example, I have a small two bedroom house I'd LOVE to get rid of.  I can't.  I had renters.  That's not a problem normally, but they haven't paid me any money for rent since March 2020.  Furthermore, they haven't paid utilities.  AS, even if it is signed up in their name, the utilities reflect on my property, I have been paying for THEIR utilities and getting no rent or money from them for over a year and a half.  There was a brief stint I discussed with the Lawyers on evicting them recently, but it's in questionable waters after an extension by the CDC.

Love to sell it...but can't.  

I think there are actually a LOT Of people in a similar boat as I am.  This has limited housing...a LOT more than usual as well.

IT is ONE factor which is also causing a housing squeeze (obviously not the ONLY reason by far, there are also not enough houses, lumber shortage, etc).

This is unpopular to talk about though, but with normal rentals and evicting if people don't pay, it opens up areas and inspires landlords to do improvements to property.  I have ZERO incentives to build more units or even sell the one I have with the current situation, plus, I'm spending the money I could have used to build other units or houses on other property on the one I already have since right now it's a money sink (I still have to pay taxes on it, and in addition, as I noted, I'm paying utilities and other items in it's upkeep, such as also having to ensure it's lawn is mowed and kept up since I don't want it turning into a wilderness).

It's not nice to evict people, I don't think it should be done in general or normal circumstances.  Even normally I'll give people a 3-6 month grace period, but this situation exceeds a LOT else.

AS I said, it's not the ONLY reason for a housing squeeze by far, but it is a contributing factor when many of the places that would be normally freed up are not freed up.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> There are several reasons why housing has gone up.
> 
> ONE that hits an unpopular nerve is the moratorium on evictions in certain places.  I am against kicking people out usually, but there are times when it gets extreme.
> 
> For example, I have a small two bedroom house I'd LOVE to get rid of.  I can't.  I had renters.  That's not a problem normally, but they haven't paid me any money for rent since March 2020.  Furthermore, they haven't paid utilities.  AS, even if it is signed up in their name, the utilities reflect on my property, I have been paying for THEIR utilities and getting no rent or money from them for over a year and a half.  There was a brief stint I discussed with the Lawyers on evicting them recently, but it's in questionable waters after an extension by the CDC.
> 
> Love to sell it...but can't.
> 
> I think there are actually a LOT Of people in a similar boat as I am.  This has limited housing...a LOT more than usual as well.
> 
> IT is ONE factor which is also causing a housing squeeze (obviously not the ONLY reason by far, there are also not enough houses, lumber shortage, etc).
> 
> This is unpopular to talk about though, but with normal rentals and evicting if people don't pay, it opens up areas and inspires landlords to do improvements to property.  I have ZERO incentives to build more units or even sell the one I have with the current situation, plus, I'm spending the money I could have used to build other units or houses on other property on the one I already have since right now it's a money sink (I still have to pay taxes on it, and in addition, as I noted, I'm paying utilities and other items in it's upkeep, such as also having to ensure it's lawn is mowed and kept up since I don't want it turning into a wilderness).
> 
> It's not nice to evict people, I don't think it should be done in general or normal circumstances.  Even normally I'll give people a 3-6 month grace period, but this situation exceeds a LOT else.
> 
> AS I said, it's not the ONLY reason for a housing squeeze by far, but it is a contributing factor when many of the places that would be normally freed up are not freed up.




 Watched a YouTube video on this pretty much exact same situation. People just stopped paying rent even if they didn't lose their jobs.


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> There's still quite a bit of land within 20 miles of most of the metro areas in central South Carolina.  Whether the infrastructure is good for as many as we need is an entirely different matter...




Well, consider - I live within 8 miles of downtown Boston.  Back when I had to go into the office every day, my trip home from work could be an hour and a half.  My wife, who drives all around the area to make house calls, has many days where going 10 miles takes her over an hour.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> Well, consider - I live within 8 miles of downtown Boston.  Back when I had to go into the office every day, my trip home from work could be an hour and a half.  My wife, who drives all around the area to make house calls, has many days where going 10 miles takes her over an hour.



Cities in SC are at a bit different scale than Boston/NY/LA/Chicago/etc...


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> Cities in SC are at a bit different scale than Boston/NY/LA/Chicago/etc...




Greater Los Angeles area population ~ 18 million.
Greater Chicago area population ~ 9.5 million.
Greater NYC area population ~ 20 million
...
Greater Boston area population ~ 5 million

And if we only talk about the city proper, there are 20 US cities larger than Boston - including Columbus, OH, and Charlottte, NC.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> Greater Los Angeles area population ~ 18 million.
> Greater Chicago area population ~ 9.5 million.
> Greater NYC area population ~ 20 million
> ...
> Greater Boston area population ~ 5 million
> 
> And if we only talk about the city proper, there are 20 US cities larger than Boston - including Columbus, OH, and Charlottte, NC.




Are housing prices more based on the MSA than just the city proper?

Our three big MSAs in South Carolina are...
Greenville-Anderson 921k  (131.3/km^2)
Columbia 840k (87.6/km^2)
Charleston 805k (120.0/km^2)

By MSA population
#11 Boston-Cambridge 4.8 mil (540.1/km^2)
#22 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia 2.6 mil (182.1/km^2)
#32 Columbus 2.1 mil (171.1/km^2)

Looking at it, I wonder how much the population density has to do with it (it feels like it should matter some).  A site had the ranking for 2017 for that as follows (with the 2019 cost of living ranking from tax foundation in parentheses)

1 LA-Long Beach-Anaheim 1,046 (11)
2 NY-Newark-Jersey City 929  (7)
3 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward 706 (2)
4 Urban Honolulu 632 (4) 
5 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk 581 (9)
6 New Haven-Milford 551 (not top 15)
7 Boston-Cambridge-Newton 519 (14)
8 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin 512 (not top 15)
9 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington 506 (not top 15)

Most expensive cost of living in 2019 also included
San Jose #1, Santa Cruz #3, Napa #5, Santa Rosa #6, Vallejo #8, Oxnard #12, San Diego #13, ... so obviously being in California is a big effect too


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> Are housing prices more based on the MSA than just the city proper?




So, when you first use a term, maybe don't use just the acronym - I presume you mean "Metropolitan Statistical Area".  

I think housing prices are dependent on many things, and in complicated ways.  I expect simple heuristics that hold up to scrutiny would be hard to come by.



> By MSA population
> #11 Boston-Cambridge 4.8 mil (540.1/km^2)
> #22 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia 2.6 mil (182.1/km^2)
> #32 Columbus 2.1 mil (171.1/km^2)
> 
> Looking at it, I wonder how much the population density has to do with it (it feels like it should matter some).




I'm sure it does, but not in a simple way.   It also pay to be _very_ careful when considering MSAs, as they are not created equal.

For example - for Boston, you name "Boston-Cambridge" and "Boston-Cambridge-Newton".  Those are three adjacent towns, but we must be clear that the actual MSA they are talking about is in no way limited to those towns.  That MSA includes almost the entire eastern half of the state of Massachusetts and two counties in New Hampshire!  This is _NOT_ a region with all the same housing prices.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dallas/Fort Worth is one of the USA’s larger metropolitan areas, both in terms of population and sprawl.  But as you examine property values across the few dozen cities covering 4 counties that make it up, you’ll see HUGE variations.  

Like I said before, my family lives in an upper middle class neighborhood in one of the suburbs.  There are places in D/FW where we could have literally twice as much house and land as we do right now.  There are also places where our house’s price wouldn’t get you a pool house on your property.


----------



## J.Quondam

Location! Location! Location!


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> So, when you first use a term, maybe don't use just the acronym - I presume you mean "Metropolitan Statistical Area".



Doh!  I should have, and you are correct on what I meant.  



Umbran said:


> I think housing prices are dependent on many things, and in complicated ways.  I expect simple heuristics that hold up to scrutiny would be hard to come by.



Certainly.  It just felt like there is probably some populations where an area starts to accrue a lot of things (big mass transit, suburbs of over 100k themselves, multiple corporate headquarters, etc...)  where they start to act differently from the things smaller than them.  So I'd guess Boston is more similar in many Dynamics to cities 2 or 3 times its size than those 1/5th its size. 



Umbran said:


> I'm sure it does, but not in a simple way.   It also pay to be _very_ careful when considering MSAs, as they are not created equal.
> 
> For example - for Boston, you name "Boston-Cambridge" and "Boston-Cambridge-Newton".  Those are three adjacent towns, but we must be clear that the actual MSA they are talking about is in no way limited to those towns.  That MSA includes almost the entire eastern half of the state of Massachusetts and two counties in New Hampshire!  This is _NOT_ a region with all the same housing prices.



I'm guessing the entire MSA should have been generically named Boston-Cambridge-Newton (not sure if I or the web-site left the name off).  

It feels like a city of x population with open country around it would have very different real estate dynamics than a city of x population with another 2x or more people surrounding it. 

Cities themselves vary greatly in terms of housing prices as well...  but folks still talk about the housing prices of cities in general.   It is sometimes interesting to see how different cities have grown based on annexing or not annexing everything around them (some MSAs are mostly the city, here in Columbia the city proper is only about 1/6th of the total).


----------



## Cadence

@Umbran @Dannyalcatraz  One of the things I'm always curious about is how much of the famour/touristy/"good" stuff in the big cities the people living there take advantage of (museums, pro-sports teams, theaters, etc...).  It fells like some folks do hit all those things, but a lot of others would find everything they use (well, except often the same job or same high prices) in a city 1/10th the size.   Do y'all take advantage of a lot of those things in Boston and DFW?  (I sometimes wondered if kids in my hometown 70 miles west of Chicago saw some of the museums in Chicago on field trips a lot more than the people who lived right their).


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> (some MSAs are mostly the city, here in Columbia the city proper is only about 1/6th of the total).




I think we need to reiterate - the MSAs (at least, those created by the Census Bureau) are not created using some criteria that's in some way predictable or even-handed, such that you can expect comparisons to mean something.  They are created in a fairly arbitrary manner for convenience for the Census Bureau.

(I did some work for the Census Bureau back in 2010, which is how I know).


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> I think we need to reiterate - the MSAs (at least, those created by the Census Bureau) are not created using some criteria that's in some way predictable even-handed, such that you can expect comparisons to mean something.  They are created in a fairly arbitrary manner for convenience for the Census Bureau.




The rules seem necessarily (?) arbitrary like those for many types of clusterings (starting page 37249), but it looks like they're all determined using those rules.  And they do admit up front it's done for ease of doing statistical things.


			https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2010-06-28/pdf/2010-15605.pdf
		


I was surprised that New England got its own special things things (using towns instead of counties, with CT and RI having no county governments apparently).

Anyway, this has zoomed off topic from the thread now now, but for anyone who hadn't run into them before, a brief overview of Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the US is at








						Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA): Definition and Uses
					

Metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) are delineated by the U.S. OMB as having at least one urbanized area with a minimum population of 50,000.




					www.investopedia.com
				




with a list of the 392 current MSAs at








						Metropolitan statistical area - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Cadence said:


> @Umbran @Dannyalcatraz  One of the things I'm always curious about is how much of the famour/touristy/"good" stuff in the big cities the people living there take advantage of (museums, pro-sports teams, theaters, etc...).  It fells like some folks do hit all those things, but a lot of others would find everything they use (well, except often the same job or same high prices) in a city 1/10th the size.   Do y'all take advantage of a lot of those things in Boston and DFW?  (I sometimes wondered if kids in my hometown 70 miles west of Chicago saw some of the museums in Chicago on field trips a lot more than the people who lived right their).



Speaking only for myself & those closest to me, I’ve been to several of the museums & galleries (multiple times).  I’ve attended dance, theatrical and classical, jazz, opera (and other genres) concerts in several of the cities‘ main halls.  Add to that 2 Lollapalooza festivals (back when it traveled) and countless other festival, venue, club and open air rock concerts.  I’ve attended games for the Cowboys, the Burn (now F.C. Dallas), the Stars, Texas-OU weekend, The Cotton Bowl and even some HS championship football.

And that’s just in D/FW. I did likewise when living in Austin and San Antonio, including SXSW.  Hell, I did road trips up & down I-35 to do things like see bands I liked (Dread Zeppelin) or work on certain projects (The Lennox Lecture series).


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> If you want to put a house in the middle of nowhere, a hundred miles from any job, sure, you can do that cheap.  But the urban areas are already built up to (and somewhat beyond) the carrying capacity for the infrastructure around them.



That has become quite an issue in the Greater Toronto (an Hamilton) area of Ontario, Canada. Areas that were previously industrial or century old housing tracts have been converted to apartment buildings. Now it can take a half an hour to get from your home to a main street, before you're even getting on your way to work. Not to mention how the water/waste systems are over taxed.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Cadence said:


> @Umbran @Dannyalcatraz  One of the things I'm always curious about is how much of the famour/touristy/"good" stuff in the big cities the people living there take advantage of (museums, pro-sports teams, theaters, etc...).  It fells like some folks do hit all those things, but a lot of others would find everything they use (well, except often the same job or same high prices) in a city 1/10th the size.   Do y'all take advantage of a lot of those things in Boston and DFW?  (I sometimes wondered if kids in my hometown 70 miles west of Chicago saw some of the museums in Chicago on field trips a lot more than the people who lived right their).




I _say_ that I can "head up a mountain for skiing in the winter" but I haven't done so since I was a kid (when it was free, as opposed to now, when it's expensive). I used to go sailing, too. My wife used to ride horses. All of these things are now priced out of our privilege level (which I would still count as pretty privileged). Heck, I even stopped going camping because it costs too much and you have to book it many months in advance. (I just can't decide if I will want to go camping on a certain weekend in July when it's still March!)

I also haven't been to any of the local museums since I was a kid, nor do I frequent the beaches. I _do_ occasionally see live productions, but only once a year or so. Generally I'm too busy and/or can't justify the expense. On the other hand, I do all that tourist stuff when I travel. (Bringing us back to the pandemic of the thread - I don't know when I will ever travel again, sadly. I mean, I _will_ as soon as it seems reasonable to do so, but I'm not getting on a plane any time soon, y'know?)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

One of the best experiences I ever had in a museum was when I took two teenage cousins who had NEVER been to one.  They grew up “in the hood” in New Orleans.

So there they were, running from exhibit to exhibit- not together, of course-  in the Dallas Museum of Fine Art, calling to each other to see this or that.  Chasing them around was exhausting as a football practice.

But to this day, they visit the museums with their wives and kids almost every time they come to town.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Appendix: a college buddy of mine was from NYC; went to the diplomat’s school. When we asked him about things like the Statue of Liberty, etc., he said he’d never done any of the touristy things.


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> I _say_ that I can "head up a mountain for skiing in the winter" but I haven't done so since I was a kid (when it was free, as opposed to now, when it's expensive). I used to go sailing, too. My wife used to ride horses. All of these things are now priced out of our privilege level (which I would still count as pretty privileged). Heck, I even stopped going camping because it costs too much and you have to book it many months in advance. (I just can't decide if I will want to go camping on a certain weekend in July when it's still March!)
> 
> I also haven't been to any of the local museums since I was a kid, nor do I frequent the beaches. I _do_ occasionally see live productions, but only once a year or so. Generally I'm too busy and/or can't justify the expense. On the other hand, I do all that tourist stuff when I travel. (Bringing us back to the pandemic of the thread - I don't know when I will ever travel again, sadly. I mean, I _will_ as soon as it seems reasonable to do so, but I'm not getting on a plane any time soon, y'know?)



Might I make a suggestion, for when everything is open again? The Rio Theatre, on Broadway and Commercial, in Vancouver, plays host to "The Critical Hit Show"; a live D&D experience much like the shows at GenCon. Actors, playing their characters, on stage and with audience participation. They just had their 9th anniversary, albeit via their Twitch stream rather than live, but they'll hopefully be back up and running sooner, rather than later. It's the brainchild of Eric Fell.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Ryujin said:


> Might I make a suggestion, for when everything is open again? The Rio Theatre, on Broadway and Commercial, in Vancouver, plays host to "The Critical Hit Show"; a live D&D experience much like the shows at GenCon. Actors, playing their characters, on stage and with audience participation. They just had their 9th anniversary, albeit via their Twitch stream rather than live, but they'll hopefully be back up and running sooner, rather than later. It's the brainchild of Eric Fell.



I know the Rio (used to live on the Drive, 20 years ago) but I have never watched live gaming. Though I might enjoy it (and so might my kids, who are teens) my wife would never be interested.. I could take the kids... I will consider it, thanks!


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> I know the Rio (used to live on the Drive, 20 years ago) but I have never watched live gaming. Though I might enjoy it (and so might my kids, who are teens) my wife would never be interested.. I could take the kids... I will consider it, thanks!



If you've ever watched the web series that hosts "Ulrick's" music video then Joanna, who plays the Elf Barbarian in "Standard Action", is part of the cast for "The Critical Hit Show."


----------



## Zardnaar

Interesting listening to various stories sounds like Aucklands problems. 

 Where I live it's 5-10 minutes drive to work, Half hour to one hour drive to camping ten minutes to the beach. Three hours to the mountains.

 Comparing notes to friends in larger places mostly you do the same stuff. Work, send kids to school, watch Netflix. 

 The larger centers are better for things like concerts or sport events but if you don't care about them. 

 Shops seem mostly the same difference is the scale and high end luxury items.

 Funny thing is talking to some of the people in bigger cities they seem to expect the smaller ones are out in the boon docks. Jobs even pay similar unless you're in corporate type ones. Friends got salty when she found out I gotta paid more than her, half the rent twice the size apartment. Her sister and father visted and confirmed it lol. 

 I don't really regard Boston as a large city.  It's smaller than Auckland but I know it's pricey because it's in New England or close enough. 

 There's a lot less variety in prices here though. Dunedin my city is more expensive than Christchurch at around 1/3rd the size but it's almost half the price of Aucklands average. Christchurch is the cheapest city though. 

 But even the average town is around 280k and up. Idk how much Boise Idaho costs or state capitals in places like Iowa cost. Or how available jobs are but once again depends on what you want/expect. 

 Here you can get a 6 figure job in a small town eg engineer working for the local council. You might have a better life on 60k somewhere smaller than 100k in Auckland. 

 100k isn't regarded as enough to buy a house in Auckland though you need to be a DINK and that's almost double the average wage so yeah.

 If you don't like the great outdoors though wrong country perhaps.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sell house in Auckland move somewhere cheap like London. 









						Here's what Auckland's median house price can buy around the world
					

Your $1.14m could nab you a French château, a classic Tuscan farmhouse or even your own slice of an award-winning Melbourne apartment block.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Sell my house here and buy two in Pittsburgh. How good or bad is Pittsburgh?

 Vancouver seems worse.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Sell house in Auckland move somewhere cheap like London.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Here's what Auckland's median house price can buy around the world
> 
> 
> Your $1.14m could nab you a French château, a classic Tuscan farmhouse or even your own slice of an award-winning Melbourne apartment block.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sell my house here and buy two in Pittsburgh. How good or bad is Pittsburgh?
> 
> Vancouver seems worse.




Coming from a city in the midwestern US, PIttsburgh feels like a nice, big midwestern US city with spectacular terrain.  It has a nice aviary, professional sports, and a few universities.

A $1mil US does really well down here in parts of the south east...









						311 Porth Cir, Lexington, SC 29072 | Zillow
					

Zestimate® Home Value: $873,600. 311 Porth Cir, Lexington, SC is a single family home that contains 2,178 sq ft and was built in 1996. It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.    The Zestimate for this house is $873,600, which has increased by $5,829 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate for...




					www.zillow.com
				












						400 Riverchase Way, Lexington, SC 29072 | Zillow
					

Zestimate® Home Value: $613,200. 400 Riverchase Way, Lexington, SC is a single family home that contains 6,480 sq ft and was built in 1987. It contains 4 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms.    The Zestimate for this house is $613,200, which has decreased by $6,139 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate...




					www.zillow.com
				




I tried to find more, but it was hard to find many that cost that much...   Those are a bit of a drive (35 min for the first/ 20 for the second) from the state capital building/University.  This condo is a few minutes.









						100 Sunset Blvd APT 1003, West Columbia, SC 29169 | Zillow
					

Zestimate® Home Value: $690,000. 100 Sunset Blvd APT 1003, West Columbia, SC is a condo home that contains 3,300 sq ft. It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.    The Zestimate for this house is $776,800, which has decreased by $5,752 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate for this home is...




					www.zillow.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Coming from a city in the midwestern US, PIttsburgh feels like a nice, big midwestern US city with spectacular terrain.  It has a nice aviary, professional sports, and a few universities.
> 
> A $1mil US does really well down here in parts of the south east...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 311 Porth Cir, Lexington, SC 29072 | Zillow
> 
> 
> Zestimate® Home Value: $873,600. 311 Porth Cir, Lexington, SC is a single family home that contains 2,178 sq ft and was built in 1996. It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.    The Zestimate for this house is $873,600, which has increased by $5,829 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate for...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.zillow.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 400 Riverchase Way, Lexington, SC 29072 | Zillow
> 
> 
> Zestimate® Home Value: $613,200. 400 Riverchase Way, Lexington, SC is a single family home that contains 6,480 sq ft and was built in 1987. It contains 4 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms.    The Zestimate for this house is $613,200, which has decreased by $6,139 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.zillow.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I tried to find more, but it was hard to find many that cost that much...   Those are a bit of a drive (35 min for the first/ 20 for the second) from the state capital building/University.  This condo is a few minutes.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 100 Sunset Blvd APT 1003, West Columbia, SC 29169 | Zillow
> 
> 
> Zestimate® Home Value: $690,000. 100 Sunset Blvd APT 1003, West Columbia, SC is a condo home that contains 3,300 sq ft. It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.    The Zestimate for this house is $776,800, which has decreased by $5,752 in the last 30 days. The Rent Zestimate for this home is...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.zillow.com




 Yeah this is why some NZers are looking at USA to move. Outside the hotspots you still have cheap housing. 

 Whole country is hotspot here. A small town house is similar to the average UK price. Can you get something half decent in the US for 200-300k USD? 

 Aucklands absurd but so are the smaller centers relative to their size. 25% hike last year due to cheap borrowing. 

 We pay about $50 a week in rates to local council. Cousin pays $390 a week on a one bedroom flat.

 More price spikes expected if the border reopens. If you want to disfe Covid and can get a visa don't bother unless you're a DINK on good money or have half a million+ or so in the bank.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Whole country is hotspot here. A small town house is similar to the average UK price. Can you get something half decent in the US for 200-300k USD?



Ours is in the middle of that price  range. Five miles from the university and state capital, one mile from the botanical garden/zoo, ok schools.  2,100 sq ft (not counting basement), 3 br, 2 ba, inground pool, and a nice wooded yard.  Of course it's 50 years old and it's South Carolina.  Being South Carolina the pay is less than some of the more expensive cities, and with under a million people  in the metro area there is less room to be picky... but if you can work from home for a big city company that would give you some nice spending money.  (Being the US, a big thing is a job that provides health insurance, and being SC right now the hospitals are overflowing with COVID).


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Ours is in the middle of that price  range. Five miles from the university and state capital, one mile from the botanical garden/zoo, ok schools.  2,100 sq ft (not counting basement), 3 br, 2 ba, inground pool, and a nice wooded yard.  Of course it's 50 years old and it's South Carolina.  Being South Carolina the pay is less than some of the more expensive cities, and with under a million people  in the metro area there is less room to be picky... but if you can work from home for a big city company that would give you some nice spending money.  (Being the US, a big thing is a job that provides health insurance, and being SC right now the hospitals are overflowing with COVID).




 Yeah I've looked at the Carolinas pre Covid. What people tend to forget though is you have to work in local conditions to buy said house so comparing prices directly is difficult unless you own freehold I suppose. 

 St Petersburg Russia is cheap I'ma off. Average Russian wage a fraction of our minimum wage.

 Grass is always greener right?


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> Do y'all take advantage of a lot of those things in Boston and DFW?




When not in covid-times, you mean?  Heck yeah!

I'm not a sports fan, but.. come on - we have the New England Patriots, the Red Sox, the Celtics, and the Bruins.  Darned tootin' a lot of folks take advantage of the sports scene around here.

My wife and I are fans of live theater, especially musical theater.  Most years we are downtown several times to catch Broadway shows coming through, or concerts in some of the smaller venues.  We also have the American Reparatory Theater, which does a lot of experimental stuff, and initial runs of things that will eventually go to Broadway.  Except for pandemic times, we are on Boston Commons every year to watch Shakespeare.

We regularly have memberships to Zoo New England, and make occasional trips to the Aquarium, the Museum of Science when they have a cool exhibit or movie showing.  We went with friends to the Museum of Fine Arts a little while before Covid hit, and the Isabella Gardner Museum has cool aspects of both art museum and garden.

This past year we took advantage of several properties managed by The Trustees (of Reservations) - they manage and maintain many public garden areas in Massachusetts, which we used for pretty places to go for open-air walks distanced from others during the pandemic.  There's also the Boston Public Gardens we go walking in fairly often.  We go to the Arnold Arboretum a couple times a year - the lilac collection they have is amazing around Mother's Day.  I could smell them a quarter mile away through my mask this year.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Yeah I've looked at the Carolinas pre Covid. What people tend to forget though is you have to work in local conditions to buy said house so comparing prices directly is difficult unless you own freehold I suppose.
> 
> St Petersburg Russia is cheap I'ma off. Average Russian wage a fraction of our minimum wage.
> 
> Grass is always greener right?



The sending kids off to college in a cheaper city (just buy them a house instead of paying for a dorm), retiring in a cheaper city (use that money that would let you retire in an expensive city to buy a house just as big and have multiples of that money to party), or work remotely (and live a few levels above where similar jobs in that city would be) seem the ways to game it.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> I don't really regard Boston as a large city.  It's smaller than Auckland but I know it's pricey because it's in New England or close enough.




I mean, yes, it is in New England.  No, that's not why the real estate is pricey.  There's lots of New England that isn't pricey.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> I mean, yes, it is in New England.  No, that's not why the real estate is pricey.  There's lots of New England that isn't pricey.




 Well you've got MIT, Harvard etc. 

 That area of the states is pricey in general. Gilmore Girls. 

@Cadence

 Just did a quick price check on 3 rural towns 13k-30k populations from here to Christchurch. This is the cheap part of the country. Median price is $280k USD. 

 Those are basically farming hub towns.

 Cheapest city only went up 20% last year.









						House price pressure in NZ’s cheapest city for real estate - Christchurch
					

Affordable Christchurch is seeing more million-dollar-plus residential sales but agents say you can still buy a good house for around half that...




					www.odt.co.nz
				




 Cheap only 380k USD.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

So the boxoffice for _Suicide Squad_ was terribly disappointing.

And I can't help but think- who is going to see it in theaters? I watched in on HBOMax, but I feel like (where I am right now) things are burning. 

And it's so weird, because it seemed like just yesterday (actually, it was the middle of June) when things were so good- vaccinations, openings, etc., that I was able to travel. And now? Hunkering down again. All because we have a ton of vaccines here _that people can't be bothered to take_. Which is beyond frustrating. 

It's the rake scene in the Simpsons, except we know the rakes are there, and we keep stepping on them on purpose, over and over again. 

(As for the housing situation- I saw that firsthand at the end of last year; people were buying houses unseen, and companies were snapping up houses as investment properties. In my area, a lot of families that have lived here for generations have left because they were offered insane amounts of money; properties that cratered in 2007-2011 are selling for much more than the prior height, and a friend of mine that had been looking for a house has been unable to purchase a property.)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Update: after being moved from the ER to the hospital chapel, our friend’s daughter was finally given a room.

…her husband’s room, at HIS request, after they discharged him with an O2 supply.

She hadn’t been fed in @24 hours.

Related report: all the hospital beds between where we are in TX and where THEY are in OK (3+hrs away) are full.


----------



## Ryujin

Snarf Zagyg said:


> So the boxoffice for _Suicide Squad_ was terribly disappointing.
> 
> And I can't help but think- who is going to see it in theaters? I watched in on HBOMax, but I feel like (where I am right now) things are burning.
> 
> And it's so weird, because it seemed like just yesterday (actually, it was the middle of June) when things were so good- vaccinations, openings, etc., that I was able to travel. And now? Hunkering down again. All because we have a ton of vaccines here _that people can't be bothered to take_. Which is beyond frustrating.
> 
> It's the rake scene in the Simpsons, except we know the rakes are there, and we keep stepping on them on purpose, over and over again.
> 
> (As for the housing situation- I saw that firsthand at the end of last year; people were buying houses unseen, and companies were snapping up houses as investment properties. In my area, a lot of families that have lived here for generations have left because they were offered insane amounts of money; properties that cratered in 2007-2011 are selling for much more than the prior height, and a friend of mine that had been looking for a house has been unable to purchase a property.)



That's kind of the point. It was apparently supposed to be a theatre only release and the simultaneous online release has cannibalized box office receipts. For more info check out the "Black Widow" thread.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Ryujin said:


> That's kind of the point. It was apparently supposed to be a theatre only release and the simultaneous online release has cannibalized box office receipts. For more info check out the "Black Widow" thread.




I am quite aware of the cannibalization debate (and subsequent lawsuit*). This isn't just about cannibalization.

The box offices have dropped precipitously since Black Widow (July 9-11) for weekends. From $120 million box office to this weekend's $64 million.

Based upon that, and my anecdotal observations, I would assume that there is a sizeable percentage of people that might have been willing to go in early July, that isn't currently. I know that my opinion has shifted dramatically in the last month. 


*TimeWarner apparently reached agreements with the main principals regarding "simultaneous release" and guarantees that Disney choose not to do w/r/t Scarlet Johannsen- hence the difference in approach and response.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Zardnaar said:


> Vancouver seems worse.




My parents live right in the heart of Vancouver. In 1980, they paid $67 thousand for their three bedroom, _one_ bathroom house on a big corner lot (they have a huge vegetable garden). My dad currently pays more in property taxes than he used to in mortgage payments. Their house is valued at 3.8 million! Which might be great if they wanted to move, but they don't. (If they sold it, it would be torn down and a very large house with a coach house would be built in its place.) My dad used to joke that he was a millionaire (in assets), but he couldn't afford to retire. (He worked it out and he's retired now).


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Update: after being moved from the ER to the hospital chapel, our friend’s daughter was finally given a room.
> 
> …her husband’s room, at HIS request, after they discharged him with an O2 supply.
> 
> She hadn’t been fed in @24 hours.
> 
> Related report: all the hospital beds between where we are in TX and where THEY are in OK (3+hrs away) are full.




Yeah.  The people of several states have been... poorly served by their state governments.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Based upon that, and my anecdotal observations, I would assume that there is a sizeable percentage of people that might have been willing to go in early July, that isn't currently. I know that my opinion has shifted dramatically in the last month.




I think you're right. I went to see Black Widow in the theatre, but I watched Suicide Squad on HBOMax. Both because I'm more willing to go out for Marvel (they usually do a better job) and because the Delta variant became a bigger concern during those few weeks. I think we were down to only a few hundred cases when I went to see BW. Now we're back to something like 400 per _day_ again. And that's with close to 80% of the adult population vaccinated. (My figures might be off, I haven't looked at them lately).

Still, enough to make a reasonable person a little more concerned.


----------



## J.Quondam

Umbran said:


> Yeah.  The people of several states have been... poorly served by their state governments.



And the "Understatement of the Year" Award goes to...!


----------



## Istbor

My mother asked me if I was coming down to Texas this year to see them. That would be likely in Jan or Feb. I had to tell her that so far out it is impossible to tell what the fall and winter will be like and whether I would be willing to travel and have to take so much time off work, not only for the stay there, but the screening time after getting back, before I can actually go in to work.  

Both parents are vaccinated, and are 'Winter birds', though I am honestly still pretty concerned with them wanting to head down into the possible fire zone that Texas could be in the fall/winter.


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> My parents live right in the heart of Vancouver. In 1980, they paid $67 thousand for their three bedroom, _one_ bathroom house on a big corner lot (they have a huge vegetable garden). My dad currently pays more in property taxes than he used to in mortgage payments. Their house is valued at 3.8 million! Which might be great if they wanted to move, but they don't. (If they sold it, it would be torn down and a very large house with a coach house would be built in its place.) My dad used to joke that he was a millionaire (in assets), but he couldn't afford to retire. (He worked it out and he's retired now).



When we moved where I now live, 50 years ago, you could get a semi-detached house for $15,000 and a detached for maybe $25,000. No, those aren't typos   Now this city might as well be part of Toronto and the same detached, single story homes are going for upwards of $800K.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Ryujin said:


> When we moved where I now live, 50 years ago, you could get a semi-detached house for $15,000 and a detached for maybe $25,000. No, those aren't typos   Now this city might as well be part of Toronto and the same detached, single story homes are going for upwards of $800K.



My grandmother still lives in a house that she paid $4000 (interest free!) for in 1948. It would be about $2.8 million now, if I am up on that neighborhood.


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> My grandmother still lives in a house that she paid $4000 (interest free!) for in 1948. It would be about $2.8 million now, if I am up on that neighborhood.



Real estate: 'Cause they ain't making any more of it


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> It's the rake scene in the Simpsons, except we know the rakes are there, and we keep stepping on them on purpose, over and over again.




Well, part of the issue is that, broadly speaking, if you step on the rake, someone else gets hit with it.

The nation's population is 328 million or so.  There have been 2.5 million people hospitalized with covid.  That's about 1 in 160 people.  So, the chances that someone you're really close to has been in the hospital for this aren't great.  It is all at a distance, and so for many people it hasn't seemed very real.


----------



## Cadence

Navigating the fun of last minute on-line charter school sign up after the rise of delta and failure of adjustment at our state level make it too uncomfortable to send our student to the neighborhood school for the month and a half before he's fully vaxxed.   Here's hoping the universe at large settles down for him to come back after either a quarter or semester.


----------



## GreyLord

FitzTheRuke said:


> My parents live right in the heart of Vancouver. In 1980, they paid $67 thousand for their three bedroom, _one_ bathroom house on a big corner lot (they have a huge vegetable garden). My dad currently pays more in property taxes than he used to in mortgage payments. Their house is valued at 3.8 million! Which might be great if they wanted to move, but they don't. (If they sold it, it would be torn down and a very large house with a coach house would be built in its place.) My dad used to joke that he was a millionaire (in assets), but he couldn't afford to retire. (He worked it out and he's retired now).




Yes, this is the type of thing that really burns me.  There should be laws that they can never make you pay more in property tax than what your mortgage payments were....ever.

IT's terrible for those on retirement incomes and fixed incomes.  You buy a home hoping to have it into your senior years, and then you end up paying more on a fixed income in property taxes than you were paying on it's mortgage when you were working.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

It's Free Comic Book Day this Saturday, so we're faced with the prospect of a busy comic store. The best I can think of is to only allow 10-15 people in the 2000 sq ft store at a time (masks required). Any other ideas on controlling traffic? (A few local stores have opted to skip it).


----------



## Cadence

GreyLord said:


> Yes, this is the type of thing that really burns me.  There should be laws that they can never make you pay more in property tax than what your mortgage payments were....ever.
> 
> IT's terrible for those on retirement incomes and fixed incomes.  You buy a home hoping to have it into your senior years, and then you end up paying more on a fixed income in property taxes than you were paying on it's mortgage when you were working.



I'm all for keeping folks in their houses in their senior years - or to stop families from being removed at younger ages due to gentrification, or to stop ancestral land from being lost because of increasing value! 

Unfortunately, I think, a lot of the plans I hear around here for doing that seem more like they're designed to help folks who just don't want to pay taxes but still want to reap all the profits when they sell.  So, I wonder about doing  something like giving people a choice on how they want the tax changes to be done - either (a) as usual (regular reappraisals with a % increase limit), or (b) deferred to something like the next time the house is sold to someone outside the family.  So, if the senior wants the house to be sold when they die to give their kids a huge amount of money (either they or the kids selling), then they should pay the increased taxes on it as they go.  If they don't care if it's passed on, then they don't ever have them increase, and maybe the house goes to the city to be sold to recoup those taxes when they pass away.  That avoids the things where if you just have the older generation get a fixed tax rate forever, then the younger generations and those who had to move for some reason pay for all of the public services.  (In a place where property taxes do that, anyway).


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> I'm all for keeping folks in their houses in their senior years - or to stop families from being removed at younger ages due to gentrification, or to stop ancestral land from being lost because of increasing value!
> 
> Unfortunately, I think, a lot of the plans I hear around here for doing that seem more like they're designed to help folks who just don't want to pay taxes but still want to reap all the profits when they sell.  So, I wonder about doing  something like giving people a choice on how they want the tax changes to be done - either (a) as usual (regular reappraisals with a % increase limit), or (b) deferred to something like the next time the house is sold to someone outside the family.  So, if the senior wants the house to be sold when they die to give their kids a huge amount of money (either they or the kids selling), then they should pay the increased taxes on it as they go.  If they don't care if it's passed on, then they don't ever have them increase, and maybe the house goes to the city to be sold to recoup those taxes when they pass away.  That avoids the things where if you just have the older generation get a fixed tax rate forever, then the younger generations and those who had to move for some reason pay for all of the public services.  (In a place where property taxes do that, anyway).




 Are taxes calculated on the value of the property? 

 Contributing factor here is the local councils keep rates low and there's no capital gains tax. 

If you bought in the 90's for 100-200k and sell now for 1.5-2 million it's tax free. 

The rates paid to the local council do go up but successive councils have kept them as low as possible while racking up debt. 

 The government has put togather a 2.5 billion dollar bailout but is looking at merging things.

 So you have large sections with old villas on them built pre 1940's within walking distance of the CBD now worth millions of dollars. Population has increased 60%bsince 1980 or so but they haven't really built any new infrastructure since then either at least in terms of what's needed. 

 Ney result some areas have century+ old pipes which break a lot. One council got overruled by central government and they sidelined them with appointed officials to run the city (at huge expense the city pays for). 

 Of course the various councils like gumming up the works for development, virtually no one votes in local body elections (10% turnout iirc). 

 I had a friend who's father was tied in with the local business roundtables. Essentially they picked the major basically by going "well boys who wants to run this time".

 So basically deregulation in 80's combined with unsustainable population growth = big mess. 

 My younger D&D players basically said they're screwed and ones a medical student and doctors aren't exactly poor. 

 One person was asking for advice on where/how to buy with a 150k deposit. He needed 40% deposit and there's virtually no where you can buy at 350k.

 Of course if you have a spare 3 million dollars (or 30) you can visit in December, get residency in January and gain access to healthcare by March.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Are taxes calculated on the value of the property?




It varies from state to state (and by locale within some states).  In SC it's based on the value of the property if you just purchased it.  Every 5 or 10 (?) years it is reassessed based on similar nearby properties.  The amount of reassessment has a limit (15%?).  Property taxes pay for all the local things - school, city (fire, police, trash), county, parks, etc...  Well, it used to pay for the schools but then iirc they put in a 1% sales tax on everything (well, not houses or expensive cars) that makes up for it).



Zardnaar said:


> Contributing factor here is the local councils keep rates low and there's no capital gains tax.



Each city/district/county here sets their own, although the state keeps wanting to take that power away.  Capital gains is federal (and in some states affects state taxes).


----------



## J.Quondam

It just nuts. I wish housing was just considered "homes" instead of "investment". That attitude on the part of policy-makers (and I guess the interests that own them) is killing society for regular folks. I mean _so many people_ now have literally no hope of getting in or moving on or whatever they aspire to, even if they do everything "right."
It's just _nuts_.


----------



## Cadence

J.Quondam said:


> It just nuts. I wish housing was just considered "homes" instead of "investment". That attitude on the part of policy-makers (and I guess the interests that own them) is killing society for regular folks. I mean _so many people_ now have literally no hope of getting in or moving on or whatever they aspire to, even if they do everything "right."
> It's just _nuts_.



When it was horrible after WWII the government went out and set up a program to build houses for the returning veterans (didn't they do similar for educating them and providing them healthcare?).


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> When it was horrible after WWII the government went out and set up a program to build houses for the returning veterans (didn't they do similar for educating them and providing them healthcare?).




 Yeah and the schools were in better condition. 

 It was the first time the hoi polloi got to enter university en masse.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> It varies from state to state (and by locale within some states).  In SC it's based on the value of the property if you just purchased it.  Every 5 or 10 (?) years it is reassessed based on similar nearby properties.  The amount of reassessment has a limit (15%?).  Property taxes pay for all the local things - school, city (fire, police, trash), county, parks, etc...  Well, it used to pay for the schools but then iirc they put in a 1% sales tax on everything (well, not houses or expensive cars) that makes up for it).
> 
> 
> Each city/district/county here sets their own, although the state keeps wanting to take that power away.  Capital gains is federal (and in some states affects state taxes).




Most things here are central government funding. 

 Your rates pay for things like water, trash collection, parks, council owned assets, utilities, corporate welfare I mean stadium etc.


----------



## Eltab

GreyLord said:


> Yes, this is the type of thing that really burns me.  There should be laws that they can never make you pay more in property tax than what your mortgage payments were....ever.
> 
> IT's terrible for those on retirement incomes and fixed incomes.  You buy a home hoping to have it into your senior years, and then you end up paying more on a fixed income in property taxes than you were paying on it's mortgage when you were working.



I like the policy that 'the taxable value of your house is the price you bought it for'.  Because in Indiana, after the voters put a property tax rate cap into the State Constitution, assessed property values started climbing - just about as fast as the rates had used to be rising.


----------



## Cadence

Eltab said:


> I like the policy that 'the taxable value of your house is the price you bought it for'.  Because in Indiana, after the voters put a property tax rate cap into the State Constitution, assessed property values started climbing - just about as fast as the rates had used to be rising.



I'm not sure what the benefit is of having the young new home owners and people who move paying for everything. [Edit: I can see saving the elderly, but why those in the peak of their earning years?]  Could that even essentially trap people in their houses since the new house (that might be equal in value to what they got from selling their last, long time owned one) would have vastly higher property taxes since they bought it for the new higher price?


----------



## Zardnaar

Well the growth this quarter has slowed from 29% to only 18%. It mean it takes 4 years for your house to double in value instead of 2.5. last year it was 26%.

 Only 4.3 growth rate a month instead of 6.6%. Won't somebody feel for the mom and pop investors!!!!. 









						House price growth eases across all major regions
					

House price growth has eased for the third month in a row suggesting efforts to cool the market may be working.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 That's not an annual rate but monthly. Last quarter only 8.9% gains in three months. 

 Average price was only $952000. All you have to do is save a 200000+ deposit by age 25, 30 year mortgage and then 10 years to save to retirement.

Perfectly reasonable it's only just under $650000 usd get cracking.


----------



## Eltab

Cadence said:


> I'm not sure what the benefit is of having the young new home owners and people who move paying for everything. [Edit: I can see saving the elderly, but why those in the peak of their earning years?]  Could that even essentially trap people in their houses since the new house (that might be equal in value to what they got from selling their last, long time owned one) would have vastly higher property taxes since they bought it for the new higher price?



You seem to think that property taxes stop coming when the mortgage is paid off?  I do not understand something in your background assumptions.


----------



## Cadence

Eltab said:


> You seem to think that property taxes stop coming when the mortgage is paid off?  I do not understand something in your background assumptions.



I don't think I assumed that.  Which one of my cases made it seem so?  I can try to clarify

In the case with a house purchased for 1X and now worth 6X, the current way most places work is to have it taxed based on 6X (or something trailing that but going up every reassessment cycle).  The proposal I was commenting on would have them pay taxes on 1X.  Say they own their house (so only payments are tax on 1X, insurance on 6X, and utilities) want to move to a similar house somewhere else.  (To simplify, assume no realtor fees). They would now need to pay tax on 6X, insurance on 6X, and utilities.  If the tax rate is bad, they're getting it all now.  I can imagine the tax on 5X more keeping someone from being able to move.

I have no problem with the person who just wants to spend the last of their days paying 1X in property tax to stay there.  But I'm not sure why their kids should inherit the 6X house without having to pay back all the years of tax on 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6X the neighbors who moved in later had to pay.

The proposal has the person in their mid 50s near maximum earnings with the kids out of the house living somewhere for only property tax on 1X while the new family that moved in to a similar house is paying property tax on 6X with lower earnings. I'm not sure why the well off 50 year old needs to pay less.


----------



## Imaculata

FitzTheRuke said:


> It's Free Comic Book Day this Saturday, so we're faced with the prospect of a busy comic store. The best I can think of is to only allow 10-15 people in the 2000 sq ft store at a time (masks required). Any other ideas on controlling traffic? (A few local stores have opted to skip it).




Put some colored tape on the floor to create a flow of one way traffic in the store. You can also use the tape to indicate the distance people should keep from one another.

Also, since people tend to touch a lot of stuff in a comicbook store, provide a way for people to disinfect their hands, and/or disinfect things people touch. Having comicbooks in plastic would make this easier. Then you can spray disinfectant on things afterwards.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

‘I Am Legend’ screenwriter responds to conspiracy theory about vaccines turning people into zombies
					

Akiva Goldsman is here to remind anti-vaxxers that zombies are made up.




					www.yahoo.com
				





Apparently, some people are conflating parts of the Will Smith version of _I Am Legend_ with the RW coronavirus pandemic.  And doing so in ways that not only demonstrate problems distinguishing reality from fiction, but also a fundamental misunderstanding of the actual plot of the movie. 

The fear is that the vaccines can cause something akin to zombi-ism, just Ike they think it did in the movie.  Except…the movie is clear- the “zombies” were created by a bioengineered virus, not the vaccine mentioned in the movie.


----------



## Hussar

J.Quondam said:


> It just nuts. I wish housing was just considered "homes" instead of "investment". That attitude on the part of policy-makers (and I guess the interests that own them) is killing society for regular folks. I mean _so many people_ now have literally no hope of getting in or moving on or whatever they aspire to, even if they do everything "right."
> It's just _nuts_.



Well, I live in that type of setup.  A house here is straight line depreciated over 20 years.  IOW, after 20 years, your house is worth zero.  Most people, if they buy a lot with a 20+ year old house on it, bulldoze the house and build a new one.  Basically, no one ever buys more than one house in their lifetime because, like a car, it's always a net loss.  The land holds its value reasonably well, but, considering Japanese inflation is about 0.001% per year, it's not really changing a whole lot year on year.  

I know right now that the house I just bought three months ago will be worthless by the time I retire.  It's not a nice feeling.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Well, I live in that type of setup.  A house here is straight line depreciated over 20 years.  IOW, after 20 years, your house is worth zero.  Most people, if they buy a lot with a 20+ year old house on it, bulldoze the house and build a new one.  Basically, no one ever buys more than one house in their lifetime because, like a car, it's always a net loss.  The land holds its value reasonably well, but, considering Japanese inflation is about 0.001% per year, it's not really changing a whole lot year on year.
> 
> I know right now that the house I just bought three months ago will be worthless by the time I retire.  It's not a nice feeling.




  Are they cheap though?


----------



## Janx

Cadence said:


> I don't think I assumed that.  Which one of my cases made it seem so?  I can try to clarify
> 
> In the case with a house purchased for 1X and now worth 6X, the current way most places work is to have it taxed based on 6X (or something trailing that but going up every reassessment cycle).  The proposal I was commenting on would have them pay taxes on 1X.  Say they own their house (so only payments are tax on 1X, insurance on 6X, and utilities) want to move to a similar house somewhere else.  (To simplify, assume no realtor fees). They would now need to pay tax on 6X, insurance on 6X, and utilities.  If the tax rate is bad, they're getting it all now.  I can imagine the tax on 5X more keeping someone from being able to move.
> 
> I have no problem with the person who just wants to spend the last of their days paying 1X in property tax to stay there.  But I'm not sure why their kids should inherit the 6X house without having to pay back all the years of tax on 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6X the neighbors who moved in later had to pay.
> 
> The proposal has the person in their mid 50s near maximum earnings with the kids out of the house living somewhere for only property tax on 1X while the new family that moved in to a similar house is paying property tax on 6X with lower earnings. I'm not sure why the well off 50 year old needs to pay less.



here in the land of Texas, once I get to be OldEnough, property taxes freeze.  That number is 65 or some higher number I can only hope to aspire to. Like very retiremed old people age.  Haven't looked it up.

Definitely not 50, and I can assure you, the rate has gone up, year over year from when I was a younger home owner to the much, much closer to 50 home owner.  A punk buying a home now is paying the same interest I am.


----------



## Cadence

Janx said:


> here in the land of Texas, once I get to be OldEnough, property taxes freeze.  That number is 65 or some higher number I can only hope to aspire to. Like very retiremed old people age.  Haven't looked it up.



Doing that at some high enough age seems better to me than having them kicked to the street.  


Janx said:


> Definitely not 50, and I can assure you, the rate has gone up, year over year from when I was a younger home owner to the much, much closer to 50 home owner.  A punk buying a home now is paying the same interest I am.



I've refinanced three times since we bought our place 10+ years ago.  And looking back at the interest rates my parents originally had... yeesh!


----------



## billd91

Eltab said:


> I like the policy that 'the taxable value of your house is the price you bought it for'.  Because in Indiana, after the voters put a property tax rate cap into the State Constitution, assessed property values started climbing - just about as fast as the rates had used to be rising.



It didn't work so well for California. Their education system suffered *badly *after Prop 13.


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> It just nuts. I wish housing was just considered "homes" instead of "investment".




So, for a moment, I want to break out the differences between "cost", "price" and "value".

Cost is how much it takes to create a thing.  Price is how much you can sell the thing for.  Value is how much a thing is worth.

Value is incredibly subjective.  For everyday people their home is _incredibly_ valuable.  Nothing with that high a value, and such a high cost will not also have a high economic value.

If our physical environment, biology, psychology, and/or culture were different, maybe homes would not have so high a value, but we are somewhat prisoners of who and what we are.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> It didn't work so well for California. Their education system suffered *badly *after Prop 13.




Yeah.  Folks complain about property taxes being high.  But... you all realize that money gets used for a lot of important things. Most towns get their education budgets out of property taxes, for example.

It is reasonable to say that we don't want to pay more than our fair share of taxes, but... stuff needs to get paid for.  Policies that generally reduce the amount of property taxes paid mean you don't get other stuff you depend on.


----------



## Deset Gled

Ryujin said:


> Real estate: 'Cause they ain't making any more of it




I think this was meant to be a joke, but my understanding is that this is literally the problem.  We, as a people, stopped making as many new homes last year.  We're starting to make more, but there are lots of parts shortages (lumber got a lot of attention, but it's not the only one) and labor issues.  The end result is that demand is much greater than supply.



Cadence said:


> folks who just don't want to pay taxes but still want to reap all the profits



Just quoting this.  No particular reason.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Hussar said:


> I know right now that the house I just bought three months ago will be worthless by the time I retire.  It's not a nice feeling.




Correct me if I'm wrong about any of this (I have friends who live in Japan and I've been there six or seven times) - As a gaijin, you don't ever even have the option of owning the _land_, you just have the rights to the house and its use?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Janx said:


> here in the land of Texas, once I get to be OldEnough, property taxes freeze.  That number is 65 or some higher number I can only hope to aspire to. Like very retiremed old people age.  Haven't looked it up.
> 
> Definitely not 50, and I can assure you, the rate has gone up, year over year from when I was a younger home owner to the much, much closer to 50 home owner.  A punk buying a home now is paying the same interest I am.



As I recall from discussions with my folks, 65 is indeed the magic number.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FitzTheRuke said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong about any of this (I have friends who live in Japan and I've been there six or seven times) - As a gaijin, you don't ever even have the option of owning the _land_, you just have the rights to the house and its use?



That’s not unheard of.  I believe Mexico has a similar rule.


----------



## Ryujin

Deset Gled said:


> I think this was meant to be a joke, but my understanding is that this is literally the problem.  We, as a people, stopped making as many new homes last year.  We're starting to make more, but there are lots of parts shortages (lumber got a lot of attention, but it's not the only one) and labor issues.  The end result is that demand is much greater than supply.



It both was and wasn't a joke. I was paraphrasing Mark Twain:  "Buy land, they're not making it anymore".


----------



## Cadence

New student convocation is on, bring your parents, pack the coliseum!  (And don't worry, the state says we can't require masks or immunizations).


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yet another reason to live in Texas: even our pricey real estate is cheaper.  I live in one of the upper middle class suburbs of Dallas, and $520k will get you a house somewhere around 2200sq ft.
> 
> There are suburbs here where that will get you closer to 5000 sq ft.
> 
> (There are also suburbs here where that will get you living in someone’s pool cabana…)



We just spent $940k last year here in Los Angeles for 2700.  It's pricy here as well.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Maxperson said:


> We just spent $940k last year here in Los Angeles for 2700.  It's pricy here as well.




_Average _(just average) price of a house in my area has gone from $580k (2015) to 800k (now). 

But single family homes went from 700k to 1 million in the same time. More impressively, they went from $900k _at the beginning of this year_ (2021) to July, which is an increase of 100k in this time. On _average_. That's not just "expensive subdivisions." 

And even that's understating the market. It's driven by cash- people who want to buy with financing? Ha. Good luck with that. I knew someone who secured financing for up to $1.2 million, and they've been shut out of the market completely. They cannot compete with people (or ... entities) swooping in and offering cash. At that level.


----------



## Cadence

Snarf Zagyg said:


> _Average _(just average) price of a house in my area has gone from $580k (2015) to 800k (now).
> 
> But single family homes went from 700k to 1 million in the same time. More impressively, they went from $900k _at the beginning of this year_ (2021) to July, which is an increase of 100k in this time. On _average_. That's not just "expensive subdivisions."
> 
> And even that's understating the market. It's driven by cash- people who want to buy with financing? Ha. Good luck with that. I knew someone who secured financing for up to $1.2 million, and they've been shut out of the market completely. They cannot compete with people (or ... entities) swooping in and offering cash. At that level.



The trick feels like it would be to get pay like your area's, in a place like cost of living like my area's....  (well, trick for helping oneself).


----------



## Maxperson

Snarf Zagyg said:


> _Average _(just average) price of a house in my area has gone from $580k (2015) to 800k (now).
> 
> But single family homes went from 700k to 1 million in the same time. More impressively, they went from $900k _at the beginning of this year_ (2021) to July, which is an increase of 100k in this time. On _average_. That's not just "expensive subdivisions."
> 
> And even that's understating the market. It's driven by cash- people who want to buy with financing? Ha. Good luck with that. I knew someone who secured financing for up to $1.2 million, and they've been shut out of the market completely. They cannot compete with people (or ... entities) swooping in and offering cash. At that level.



Yep.  We got lucky to get ours. We had been losing out on house after house after house.  Once we got this one and were doing the final walk-through, we asked the other agent why we were picked and found out that we only got it because the former owners were racist


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Cadence said:


> The trick feels like it would be to get pay like your area's, in a place like cost of living like my area's....  (well, trick for helping oneself).




...and that's what remote working is for ... supposedly.

Thing is, it doesn't work like that, does it? A lot of jobs can't be remote all the time. Or even some of the time.

And even if you are lucky enough to have one of those jobs, there is a reason that desirable places are desirable. Temperature, schools, beaches (or mountains/wildlife), proximity to culture ... those sorts of quality of life things.

Still, I think there will be an increasing number of people who take advantage of the lower-cost areas to live. I mean... at some point they have to, right?

(FWIW, this insane housing market has caused a lot of people to finally "cash in."  Which means that we are losing a lot of the basic "services" that you need. Teachers, firefighters, police, waiters, retail workers? They need a place to live, too.)


----------



## Maxperson

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Still, I think there will be an increasing number of people who take advantage of the lower-cost areas to live. I mean... at some point they have to, right?



We had a small vacation on Catalina for a few days last week and we were talking to a couple from Sacramento.  The husband was saying the people are fleeing the high priced Bay area to buy homes in Sacramento now that they can work from home.


----------



## Cadence

Cadence said:


> New student convocation is on, bring your parents, pack the coliseum!  (And don't worry, the state says we can't masks or immunizations).
> 
> View attachment 142025



Follow up.  A few hours after getting the e-mail about the new student convocation, this was part of the follow-up...


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The fear is that the vaccines can cause something akin to zombi-ism, just Ike they think it did in the movie.  Except…the movie is clear- the “zombies” were created by a bioengineered virus, not the vaccine mentioned in the movie.




Though it was created for a medical purpose; specifically as a cancer cure.

But that's still pretty worlds apart from what people are presenting it as.

(They're also more like rough and tumble vampires than zombies (no surprise given the book) but that's neither here nor there).


----------



## Thomas Shey

billd91 said:


> It didn't work so well for California. Their education system suffered *badly *after Prop 13.




A big part of that had to do with the fact it also applied to commercial property.


----------



## Zardnaar

Snarf Zagyg said:


> ...and that's what remote working is for ... supposedly.
> 
> Thing is, it doesn't work like that, does it? A lot of jobs can't be remote all the time. Or even some of the time.
> 
> And even if you are lucky enough to have one of those jobs, there is a reason that desirable places are desirable. Temperature, schools, beaches (or mountains/wildlife), proximity to culture ... those sorts of quality of life things.
> 
> Still, I think there will be an increasing number of people who take advantage of the lower-cost areas to live. I mean... at some point they have to, right?
> 
> (FWIW, this insane housing market has caused a lot of people to finally "cash in."  Which means that we are losing a lot of the basic "services" that you need. Teachers, firefighters, police, waiters, retail workers? They need a place to live, too.)




 Similar thing here. The nurses, teachers etc get paid the same regardless of where they live. So if you're over the age of say 35 and live in a small town and bought a decade+ ago you're all good. 

 If not you're kinda screwed although DINK (double income no kids) might pull it off in a smaller town. 

 A friend and his sister bought there own houses but mum and dad had to act as guarantors. He went from his parents place in one of our best suburbs to living in one of the worst. 

 Nice enough house and the suburb wasn't that bad but his friend on similar income without the bank of mum and dad is screwed.

 We did it without bank of mum and dad by virtue of being born earlier. If you did everything right around age 32 is the last time you could do it yourself without parental help although I'm sure exceptions exist. 

 And by doing everything right decent job out of school or uni DINK by age 22 and save like hell. 

 In reality it's more like age 35 or 40.

 New middle class has pets most rentals now no pets.


----------



## Zardnaar

One of the cheapest places in the country. 









						The sad price of New Zealand's soaring housing market
					

Homes are being snapped up after less than a week on the market in Kaikohe, driving out families who were renting, and sometimes have nowhere else to go.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




Avg income $19000 ($13-14k) half minimum wage. Translation welfare. Population 4000. 

 Avg price 291000 around $200k usd. 

 14 years average income ratio. And that's pretty much the cheapest one can find.


----------



## J.Quondam

Zardnaar said:


> One of the cheapest places in the country.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The sad price of New Zealand's soaring housing market
> 
> 
> Homes are being snapped up after less than a week on the market in Kaikohe, driving out families who were renting, and sometimes have nowhere else to go.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Avg income $19000 ($13-14k) half minimum wage. Translation welfare. Population 4000.
> 
> Avg price 291000 around $200k usd.
> 
> 14 years average income ratio. And that's pretty much the cheapest one can find.



What about rents? Are they tracking upward with prices, or are those getting unaffordable, too?


----------



## Eltab

billd91 said:


> It didn't work so well for California. Their education system suffered *badly *after Prop 13.



Ooh, an opportunity to discuss politics!

I'll content myself with the observation that US schools are among the most highly-funded in the world - but every dollar of school tax goes through many hoops and siphons before some pennies and nickles reach the classroom.


----------



## Zardnaar

J.Quondam said:


> What about rents? Are they tracking upward with prices, or are those getting unaffordable, too?




 Rents have exploded assuming you can find one. First home buys are competing with investors competing with the government competing with Airbnb. 

 Net result is less rentals.

  Also depends where you live but if you can find a rental you're paying through the nose for it.  

 Only way to get cheap rent. 

1. Mates rates/bank of mum and dad. 

2. Old rental agreements with kind landlord. 

3. Erm subsidizing rent in erm kind which is apparently happening.


----------



## J.Quondam

Zardnaar said:


> Rents have exploded assuming you can find one. First home buys are competing with investors competing with the government competing with Airbnb.
> 
> Net result is less rentals.
> 
> Also depends where you live but if you can find a rental you're paying through the nose for it.



Okay, yeah. About what I figured. Same here in the hot markets, and getting worse most everywhere else.


----------



## Zardnaar

J.Quondam said:


> Okay, yeah. About what I figured. Same here in the hot markets, and getting worse most everywhere else.




 It's hot everywhere though you can't really relocate. 

 It's been building since 2003/4 got bad about 5 years ago raging dumpster fire now.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Update:



> In light of the recent surge in COVID cases and concern about the spread of the Delta variant, Bishop Edward Burns has postponed reinstating the requirement for Catholics to attend Mass in person in the Diocese of Dallas. The dispensation which waived this requirement had been scheduled to end on Sunday, August 15, 2021. Masses will continue to take place; however, the obligation to attend remains lifted.
> 
> According to Bishop Burns the decision will be reviewed frequently as more information becomes available.  “This decision has not been made lightly as we all desire to get beyond the ongoing effects of this pandemic.  We will continue to monitor this situation closely and as soon as we are safely able to do so, we will get back to normal.”
> 
> Bishop Burns went on to remind those who decide to attend Mass in-person that masks are expected to be worn, especially in Dallas County.




For those who don’t speak Catholicese: although masses will resume 08/15/21, parishioners in the Diocese of Dallas will NOT be required to attend.


----------



## J.Quondam

Zardnaar said:


> It's hot everywhere though you can't really relocate.
> 
> It's been building since 2003/4 got bad about 5 years ago raging dumpster fire now.



The curse of living in a small, beautiful island nation that everyone with $$$ wants to move to.


----------



## Zardnaar

J.Quondam said:


> The curse of living in a small, beautiful island nation that everyone with $$$ wants to move to.




 Yeah competting with the rich for housingand wages are crap compared to cost of living. Mostly just housing really but you pay an island tax for existing.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Yeah competting with the rich for housingand wages are crap compared to cost of living. Mostly just housing really but you pay an island tax for existing.




The US is part of a really, really big Island, doesn't have quite the tax for existing (except for healthcare), and could use more smart people...


----------



## J.Quondam

Cadence said:


> The US is part of a really, really big Island, doesn't have quite the tax for existing (except for healthcare), and could use more smart people...



I'd be happy to settle for fewer dumb people.  
Or at least fewer covid/mask/vax deniers.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> The US is part of a really, really big Island, doesn't have quite the tax for existing (except for healthcare), and could use more smart people...




 Most of the US stuff is a distraction. Same problems in NZ, Aussie, Canada, USA, UK, Russia, China, hell even North Korea. It's not even political but you can see it in real time atm. 

  Same reasons.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> Yeah.  Folks complain about property taxes being high.  But... you all realize that money gets used for a lot of important things. Most towns get their education budgets out of property taxes, for example.
> 
> It is reasonable to say that we don't want to pay more than our fair share of taxes, but... stuff needs to get paid for.  Policies that generally reduce the amount of property taxes paid mean you don't get other stuff you depend on.



If a massive portion of it wasn't public employee pensions, it might be somewhat tolerable.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> If our physical environment, biology, psychology, and/or culture were different, maybe homes would not have so high a value, but we are somewhat prisoners of who and what we are.



I think supply and demand is most of it.  Here in SoCal we keep getting more and more people, but the housing isn't being built as fast as the increase.  Regulation is stifling much of the growth we need in that sector.  As a result, we routinely have several people putting in bids at and over asking price on pretty much every house sold.  That's driving prices up very rapidly.


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> I think supply and demand is most of it.  Here in SoCal we keep getting more and more people, but the housing isn't being built as fast as the increase.  Regulation is stifling much of the growth we need in that sector.  As a result, we routinely have several people putting in bids at and over asking price on pretty much every house sold.  That's driving prices up very rapidly.




 You kind of expect California, Seattle, NYC to be crazy though with house prices.


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> You kind of expect California, Seattle, NYC to be crazy though with house prices.



It has become MUCH crazier in the past few years.


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> It has become MUCH crazier in the past few years.




 Yeah here everyone's like NZ sucks it's so expensive yada yada. 

 They don't believe you same thing is happening in US, UK, Aussie etc. 

 Wages higher perhaps (that's debatable depending). IDK if you could relocate to a state capital for example in Idaho/Iowa/Kentucky or whatever and get a decent job.


----------



## Cadence

Just about 1 in 10,000 Floridians entering the hospital with COVID daily.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> If a massive portion of it wasn't public employee pensions, it might be somewhat tolerable.




Of course, those public employees aren't exactly pulling in the big bucks while they are working.  That pension is part of their compensation they depend on, just like others depend on their private sector retirement funds.  



Maxperson said:


> I think supply and demand is most of it.




That's... pretty much what I said, laying out what "demand" we are talking about here - the _value of a home_.  I mean, I hope nobody here has had to but... imagine having to go a year or more without a home.  That's the value we are talking about, and thus the demand.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> That's the value we are talking about, and thus the demand.



Imagine the demand if people who could somehow always afford $1400 to rent an apartment were able to get a loan for a house that was 500 sq.ft. bigger than their apartment but costs $200 less a month (even including taxes and insurance) -- instead of being told they need to save 20% first while trying to pay off student loans and the like.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> Of course, those public employees aren't exactly pulling in the big bucks while they are working.  That pension is part of their compensation they depend on, just like others depend on their private sector retirement funds.



We can't afford it.  The current pension liability is somewhere around 80k for every taxpayer in the state.  They should invest in 401k like everyone else.


Umbran said:


> That's... pretty much what I said, laying out what "demand" we are talking about here - the _value of a home_.  I mean, I hope nobody here has had to but... imagine having to go a year or more without a home.  That's the value we are talking about, and thus the demand.



Yeah.  It would be nice if California could stop getting in its own way and allow enough housing to be build.


----------



## Cadence

Maxperson said:


> We can't afford it.  The current pension liability is somewhere around 80k for every taxpayer in the state.  They should invest in 401k like everyone else.



Is part of that the accounting change a few years (decade now?) ago that required the pension funds to have more put aside?

In any case, the pensions and promises of COLAs is part of what had justified the low salaries for state employees in places like Illinois.  There, it feels like a big part of it it wasn't the promised pensions that were the problem (although the COLA promise seems inane), it was that the state (in the form of generations of elected officials as chosen by generations of voters voters) that went for tax cut after tax cut instead of paying for things.

It feels like a lot of corporations did something similar - didn't almost all of them formerly have pensions?  They escaped in many cases by arranging bankruptcy restructurings that lined the executives pockets but nuked the pension funds.

In any case the states have already promised the pensions to those who worked for the state for them instead of higher salaries.  If the citizens of the state can't pay what they owe through tax dollars, then why should these workers be the only ones to suffer while the others who didn't work for the state and got paid more get to keep all of their 401ks?

For future employees?  Sure, a 401k or 403b with matching funds equivalent to whatever the state originally was going to put towards the pension seems fair.  Instead the matching funds are less to help bail out the pension funds, so that the new employees get less later on to make sure the already or near retired get the full thing.


----------



## Maxperson

Cadence said:


> Is part of that the accounting change a few years (decade now) ago that required them to have more put aside?



It's either not sufficient by a long shot or the money is being taken by the legislature for other things.


Cadence said:


> In any case, that pensions and promises of COLAs is part of what has justified the low salaries for state employees in places like Illinois.  There, it feels like a big part of it it wasn't the promised pensions that were the problem (although the COLA promise seems inane), it was that the state (the elected officials as chosen by the voters) who went for tax cut after tax cut instead of paying for things.



California has 340k+ employees making 100k+ a year.  And many in the 200k+, 300k+ and even 400k+ ranges.  We give high salaries AND pensions.


----------



## Cadence

Maxperson said:


> It's either not sufficient by a long shot or the money is being taken by the legislature for other things.




We had a candidate for governor in IL once who ran on needing a tax increase to pay for all the things the voters wanted (like, well, schools).  Of course they got slaughtered by the candidate who promised no tax increases.  Of course, a while in, they had to raise taxes.

One of my biggest pet peeves are folks who want a tax cut or tax increase who can't say specifically what they want to cut out of the budget or fund new.  Here we went years hearing "there has to be room for an across the board 4% cut"... with no regard to how many previous years that was said or to the population growing or, well, anything related to reality.



Maxperson said:


> California has 340k+ employees making 100k+ a year.  And many in the 200k+, 300k+ and even 400k+ ranges.  We give high salaries AND pensions.




I'm sure some are being overpaid.  What are those making 100k+ doing?   Experienced state college professors in a variety of fields in some states make less than some of their fresh Ph.D. students do starting in their first jobs (and some of those private colleges give some great free tuition perks for the kids that many public schools don't).  What are the lawyers the state needs making compared to what lawyers of similar experience make in the private sector?  The doctors?  Those overseeing agencies of 1,000s of employees with 9 figure budgets?  (I won't ask about the high school and college football and basketball coaches).  What should a teacher with a masters and 20 years experience in an expensive area make?  If the state needs workers in a building in an expensive area, how much does it cost for the worker to even live within a reasonable commute?  [Edit:  Wow 340k employees is a big number!]

(Here for a long time there was a ruckus every year about how many state employees made $50k or more.  $50k!?!?  Wtf should folks with advanced degrees and years of experience and managerial responsibility make.)


----------



## Maxperson

Cadence said:


> We had a candidate for governor in IL once who ran on needing a tax increase to pay for all the things the voters wanted (like, well, schools).  Of course they got slaughtered by the candidate who promised no tax increases.  Of course, a while in, they had to raise taxes.
> 
> One of my biggest pet peeves are folks who want a tax cut or tax increase who can't say specifically what they want to cut out of the budget or fund new.  Here we went years hearing "there has to be room for an across the board 4% cut"... with no regard to how many previous years that was said or to the population growing or, well, anything related to reality.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm sure some are being overpaid.  What are those making 100k+ doing?   Experienced state college professors in a variety of fields in some states make less than some of their fresh Ph.D. students do starting in their first jobs (and some of those private colleges give some great free tuition perks for the kids that many public schools don't).  What are the lawyers the state needs making compared to what lawyers of similar experience make in the private sector?  The doctors?  Those overseeing agencies of 1,000s of employees with 9 figure budgets?  (I won't ask about the high school and college football and basketball coaches).  What should a teacher with a masters and 20 years experience in an expensive area make?  If the state needs workers in a building in an expensive area, how much does it cost for the worker to even live within a reasonable commute?  [Edit:  Wow 340k employees is a big number!]
> 
> (Here for a long time there was a ruckus every year about how many state employees made $50k or more.  $50k!?!?  Wtf should folks with advanced degrees and years of experience and managerial responsibility make.)



50k is what our junior college professors make.  The average CSU professor salary is $112k.  The average UC professor makes 214K.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> We had a candidate for governor in IL once who ran on needing a tax increase to pay for all the things the voters wanted (like, well, schools).  Of course they got slaughtered by the candidate who promised no tax increases.  Of course, a while in, they had to raise taxes.
> 
> One of my biggest pet peeves are folks who want a tax cut or tax increase who can't say specifically what they want to cut out of the budget or fund new.  Here we went years hearing "there has to be room for an across the board 4% cut"... with no regard to how many previous years that was said or to the population growing or, well, anything related to reality.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm sure some are being overpaid.  What are those making 100k+ doing?   Experienced state college professors in a variety of fields in some states make less than some of their fresh Ph.D. students do starting in their first jobs (and some of those private colleges give some great free tuition perks for the kids that many public schools don't).  What are the lawyers the state needs making compared to what lawyers of similar experience make in the private sector?  The doctors?  Those overseeing agencies of 1,000s of employees with 9 figure budgets?  (I won't ask about the high school and college football and basketball coaches).  What should a teacher with a masters and 20 years experience in an expensive area make?  If the state needs workers in a building in an expensive area, how much does it cost for the worker to even live within a reasonable commute?  [Edit:  Wow 340k employees is a big number!]
> 
> (Here for a long time there was a ruckus every year about how many state employees made $50k or more.  $50k!?!?  Wtf should folks with advanced degrees and years of experience and managerial responsibility make.)



 Easy explaination. 

 Minimum wage worker makes what 16k in the US or low paid 20k? Doing some crap job. Or waitressing counting on tips.

50k worker gets to sit in a nice office probably not doing anything to demanding and gets double the low paid workers. And has better job security plus benefits etc. 

Here the numbers change but the sentiment is the same. White collar government service jobs often don't require that much hard work relative to breaking your balls doing XYZ. 

 Minimum wage here though has been increasing faster so some of those public servants working in the bureaucracy are barely getting paid more than minimum wage when they used to get an extra 10k or so. 


 They also have thing like an hour long lunch break if required or a lot easier to finish an hour earlier or whatever and if they're on salary their pay doesn't even take a hit.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Cadence said:


> We had a candidate for governor in IL once who ran on needing a tax increase to pay for all the things the voters wanted (like, well, schools).  Of course they got slaughtered by the candidate who promised no tax increases.  Of course, a while in, they had to raise taxes.



See also Mike Dukakis’s presidential campaign.


----------



## Zardnaar

I've seen one candidate win since 1996 campaigning on more taxes. That was in 1999. Said tax was repealed post 2008 when they lost.

What I'm finding amusing atm is some of those people now wondering why some things are falling apart. Sometimes complaining about tax still. 

 Makes me wonder how they think things work. Niece will likely need to go to uni in a few years but housing costs alone are gonna hurt. 

 Already had the "she can live with you" joke.


----------



## Zardnaar

If you're not familiar with geography guess where the cities are?









						Buyers beware: Reserve Bank about to take 'larger hose' to housing market
					

The days of loading up with debt could be numbered.




					www.nzherald.co.nz


----------



## Ryujin

Maxperson said:


> We can't afford it.  The current pension liability is somewhere around 80k for every taxpayer in the state.  They should invest in 401k like everyone else.



When it comes to the Public Sector we employees give up things like maximum earning potential in exchange for greater perceived job security, benefits, and a pension. We give up the extra cash for those retirement investments, because our employer is effectively doing that for us.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> 50k is what our junior college professors make.  The average CSU professor salary is $112k.  The average UC professor makes 214K.




Broadly in the US, 75% of academic teaching jobs are not tenure track positions these days.  40% of faculty are adjunct professors, effectively part-time employees.

About a third of adjunct professors get paid below the poverty line in the US.  Surveying found that the median per-course pay was about $2,700.  If the adjunct has a workload like a full time employee, that works out to about $24,000 per year.

Mind you, these adjuncts are usually the ones with the most actual teaching experience.

Academia is kind of screwed up.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Broadly in the US, 75% of academic teaching jobs are not tenure track positions these days.  40% of faculty are adjunct professors, effectively part-time employees.
> 
> About a third of adjunct professors get paid below the poverty line in the US.  Surveying found that the median per-course pay was about $2,700.  If the adjunct has a workload like a full time employee, that works out to about $24,000 per year.
> 
> Mind you, these adjuncts are usually the ones with the most actual teaching experience.
> 
> Academia is kind of screwed up.



 Minimum wage here but less. 

 Sister in law is a low level employee at the University she does it for the hours and lifestyle. 

 Basically when the students are on holiday she really has a 5 hour working week.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> When it comes to the Public Sector we employees *give up things like maximum earning potential* in exchange for greater perceived job security, benefits, and a pension. We give up the extra cash for those retirement investments, because our employer is effectively doing that for us.



They aren't giving it up here in California.  We pay them very well.  And it's breaking us.  We cannot afford these pensions.  When every taxpayer owes around 80k for underfunded pensions already and it's getting worse by the minute, something has to change.  I guarantee you that with what we pay, the jobs would be filled if it was a 401k instead of a pension.


----------



## Cadence

Maxperson said:


> They aren't giving it up here in California.  We pay them very well.  And it's breaking us.  We cannot afford these pensions.  When every taxpayer owes around 80k for underfunded pensions already and it's getting worse by the minute, something has to change.  I guarantee you that with what we pay, the jobs would be filled if it was a 401k instead of a pension.




Here they changed the retirement years/age (no more just needing 18 years regardless.of.service), upped the contribution (but not benefits), and are pushing the 401k-ish version. Seemed reasonable to me.

No desire at all to do similar for the police iirc. Do they only need 25 years?


----------



## Ryujin

Maxperson said:


> They aren't giving it up here in California.  We pay them very well.  And it's breaking us.  We cannot afford these pensions.  When every taxpayer owes around 80k for underfunded pensions already and it's getting worse by the minute, something has to change.  I guarantee you that with what we pay, the jobs would be filled if it was a 401k instead of a pension.



Then there were some serious screw-ups in either compensation, the setting up for/saving of the pensions. Compensation likely needs to be high, because of location, so I think that's out. I would hazard a guess that it's the latter. Too many people seem to like the idea of raiding funds that are "just sitting around", then complaining after the much needed money has been spent.

My own pension fund is fully funded but, because on limits in investment earnings placed on them, there was a time when they weren't. Markets fluctuate and if a fund isn't allowed to grow in the green times, it will starve in the drought.


----------



## Cadence

An area school district started a week or two earlier than most.  100+ positive in the first week.  5% of school population is in quaranteen.



			https://www.thestate.com/news/coronavirus/article253437359.html


----------



## Maxperson

Cadence said:


> Here they changed the retirement years/age (no more just needing 18 years regardless.of.service), upped the contribution (but not benefits), and are pushing the 401k-ish version. Seemed reasonable to me.
> 
> No desire at all to do similar for the police iirc. Do they only need 25 years?



here you can retire at 50 if you have 5 years service credit.  55 otherwise.


----------



## Cadence

Maxperson said:


> here you can retire at 50 if you have 5 years service credit.  55 otherwise.



Here's what they put in in South Carolina for those wanting the pension (instead of 401k type plan).  It still lets some folks retire pretty young - but it's at least it's 6 years more working than before.  And most of those who could start at 22 wouldn't be the higher paying jobs since they probably wouldn't have a degree.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> Broadly in the US, 75% of academic teaching jobs are not tenure track positions these days.  40% of faculty are adjunct professors, effectively part-time employees.



I'm always amazed how the use of adjunct faculty varies from department to department within a University, between disciplines, and between Universities of the same tier.  I've been blessed that the temporary faculty we use in our department are mostly those with other full time jobs (or those who don't want one) who pick up the teaching slot for extra money.  It's appalling to see how many folks (including some good friends on FB) have to cobble things together just to scrape by


----------



## Ryujin

Cadence said:


> Here's what they put in in South Carolina for those wanting the pension (instead of 401k type plan).  It still lets some folks retire pretty young - but it's at least it's 6 years more working than before.  And most of those who could start at 22 wouldn't be the higher paying jobs since they probably wouldn't have a degree.
> 
> View attachment 142068



For me, the earliest that I can go is determined by the "80 factor"; age at least 60, with 20+ years of service. By that I can retire in two years, with full pension. I work in a Canadian university.


----------



## Cadence

Ryujin said:


> For me, the earliest that I can go is determined by the "80 factor"; age at least 60, with 20+ years of service. By that I can retire in two years, with full pension. I work in a Canadian university.



I had to make the choice to either go with the state pension or an optional 403b stock plan when hired.  One is immediately vested in the 403b, but only got your principal back from the state plan if you left to early (10 years?  something before it was clear one would have tenure I think).  So my "pension" is whatever the market does with my stock and bond choices.  I need the years in I think to buy the healthcare when I retire.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Cadence said:


> I had to make the choice to either go with the state pension or an optional 403b stock plan when hired.  You were immediately vested in the 403b, but only got your principal back from the state plan if you left to early (10 years?  something before it was clear one would have tenure I think).  So my "pension" is whatever the market does with my stock and bond choices.  I need the years in I think to buy the healthcare when I retire.




Quick primer (for the US):

"Pensions" can be categorized in one of two ways in the US:
1. Defined Benefit. ("DB")
2. Defined Contribution. ("DC")

DBs are what people normally think of as "pensions." At some point in the future (retirement), you will get an amount that will be determined ahead of time; either a dollar figure ($200 a month) or some amount as determined by a plan (salary and years of service is a common one).

DCs aren't ... well they aren't really pensions. Usually they are just retirement plans, often tax-preferred. Think of 401k and 403b. The employee, employer, or both put money in and at some point in the future, the employee gets the money (with investment gains). 


The specific issues when it comes to DBs are pretty simple- they are much better for most employees. DCs effectively offload retirement risk from the employer to the employee (and often from the employer to the government). Most people consistently don't put enough into the DCs to effectively support themselves in retirement.

_However, _DBs have their own issues as well. The primary issue is the Wimpy issue- "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today." When bargaining over the terms and conditions of wages, employees like to get security down the road. They will forego present money for that security. But on the other side, employers need to be careful. It's easy to promise money that the current employer will never pay- that's a problem for the next CEO (or governor) 30 years from now. Without careful attention, both sides will rationally bargain up higher DBs because it benefits them. 

But then the future comes, and the people who gave up present wages for future benefits will get screwed because the future employers will either declare bankruptcy to avoid obligations (private) or seek to undo their obligation (public sector). Which means that more people clamor for DCs, which, again, are a much worse option for the majority of people. Not all- they are great if you are already well off. But most people. 

... none of this having to do much with either COVID or TTRPGs, but it is quite fascinating!


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

So moving it back to COVID, there has been a spate of articles recently about how the Delta variant has really changed the picture, with the R0 going from 2-3 (Covid Classic, you know, like Coke Classic) to a R0 of between 5 and 9.

Which is, um, more.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Which is, um, more.




Yep.  I suspect the "Delta blues" will come to mean something different in the coming months.


----------



## Umbran

And that makes me think of something completely else...

You know what's wrong with pop music today?  I mean, aside from how I'm old and therefore it is terrible?

It isn't made for people to _sing along_ to it.  And that means that with all these months and months and months of shared covid experience, none of these mega-pop stars that make a bazillion dollars for every release can make a song about it that we can all fully share.  And that's a darned shame.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Umbran said:


> Yep.  I suspect the "Delta blues" will come to mean something different in the coming months.




I'm trying to be optimistic, but I'm getting frustrated. I'm getting frustrated with people. I can't help but feel that if more people had been taking this seriously, had gotten their vaccinations earlier (or at all), then we wouldn't be having such a problem.

It feels like we are living in one of those heavy-handed Star Trek episodes, where they come across a planet where the solution to the problem they are having is obvious, yet they will not accept the solution because of (racism, cultural taboo, mumbledy jumbledy reasons).


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> And that makes me think of something completely else...
> 
> You know what's wrong with pop music today?  I mean, aside from how I'm old and therefore it is terrible?
> 
> It isn't made for people to _sing along_ to it.  And that means that with all these months and months and months of shared covid experience, none of these mega-pop stars that make a bazillion dollars for every release can make a song about it that we can all fully share.  And that's a darned shame.



You're not wrong. All that we have left for storytelling music might well be Country and even that is being Autotuned and voice synthed away.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Ryujin said:


> You're not wrong. *All that we have left for storytelling music might well be Country* and even that is being Autotuned and voice synthed away.




I mean .... have you heard of this music called hip hop (rap)? Apparently, there are lyrics and everything. 

I hear the kids might be into it.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> And that makes me think of something completely else...
> 
> You know what's wrong with pop music today?  I mean, aside from how I'm old and therefore it is terrible?
> 
> It isn't made for people to _sing along_ to it.  And that means that with all these months and months and months of shared covid experience, none of these mega-pop stars that make a bazillion dollars for every release can make a song about it that we can all fully share.  And that's a darned shame.



"Kids Place Live" on Sirius/XM satellite radio in the States still has a bunch of singable things come out.

It also has a bunch of radio stations from previous decades for us fogeys.


----------



## Ryujin

Snarf Zagyg said:


> I mean .... have you heard of this music called hip hop (rap)? Apparently, there are lyrics and everything.
> 
> I hear the kids might be into it.



Sure have. I'd call that more rhythmic chanting, than singing though. Give me Motown, any day.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Cadence said:


> "Kids Place Live" on Sirius/XM satellite radio in the States still has a bunch of singable things come out.
> 
> It also has a bunch of radio stations from previous decades for us fogeys.




Has there ever been a time when a Dua Lipa track came on and you didn't sing?

That album has more bangers than Shohei Ohtani eating at a British pub.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> I mean .... have you heard of this music called hip hop (rap)? Apparently, there are lyrics and everything.
> 
> I hear the kids might be into it.




I'm not talking about, say, EDM (which, I admit, generally sounds to me like a Transformer got hold of a bad burrito).

But, the mere _existence_ of lyrics isn't enough.  I'm talking about songs constructed so you can _sing along_.

For rap music, there's a problem - speed.  You can't get a crowd of people cogently signing along to rap, any more than you can get them signing along to Gilbert and Sullivan's "I am the Very Model of a Modern Major General".  The lyric of the tune is sung by _one person_, because even the slightest mismatch in cadences turns it into an incomprehensible mess.


----------



## Cadence

Ryujin said:


> Sure have. I'd call that more rhythmic chanting, than singing though. Give me Motown, any day.




For a short shining while this summer I was able to return to my daily routine at the local bagel shop for breakfast.  Where, not only is it almost always possible to get a jalapeno bagel with sausage, egg, and pepperjack, a small fruit cup, and an unsweet tea, but where there was also generally music from the mid 70s through the 80s being played.  Why did everything go musically south after my childhood radio listening years!  (I would also happily take most of Motown and select scatterings from the 60s, early 70s, and 90s).


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Ryujin said:


> Sure have. I'd call that more rhythmic chanting, than singing though. Give me Motown, any day.




In fairness, that might be best when your singing voice has been described as, "Strangled Drunken Parrot."


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> You're not wrong. All that we have left for storytelling music might well be Country and even that is being Autotuned and voice synthed away.




Country isn't all that far from the blues and folk roots in terms of its structure and pace for most songs, such that you can sing along to it.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Umbran said:


> I'm not talking about, say, EDM (which, I admit, generally sounds to me like a Transformer got hold of a bad burrito).
> 
> But, the mere _existence_ of lyrics isn't enough.  I'm talking about songs constructed so you can _sing along_.
> 
> For rap music, there's a problem - speed.  You can't get a crowd of people cogently signing along to rap, any more than you can get them signing along to Gilbert and Sullivan's "I am the Very Model of a Modern Major General".  The lyric of the tune is sung by _one person_, because even the slightest mismatch in cadences turns it into an incomprehensible mess.




Is it possible that there is an overlap between "songs I can sing to" and "music from my childhood and teen years," and that there is quite a bit of music that the teens of today are singing to?

I mean, based on my anecdotal observations (and/or TikTok) it would seem that the youth of today are doing nothing other than dancing and singing to contemporary music (and occasionally sea shanties).

The Youth! That's all they do, you know- just drive around listening to raps and shooting all the jobs.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> I'm trying to be optimistic, but I'm getting frustrated. I'm getting frustrated with people. I can't help but feel that if more people had been taking this seriously, had gotten their vaccinations earlier (or at all), then we wouldn't be having such a problem.




Loads of people were misled into taking the wrong things seriously.  Wearing a mask?  Not a serious inconvenience.  

It can be said that the key to dealing with the pandemic really lay in caring about people beyond your own personal experience.  And there's loads of folks who have been taught they shouldn't give a fig about them.



Snarf Zagyg said:


> It feels like we are living in one of those heavy-handed Star Trek episodes, where they come across a planet where the solution to the problem they are having is obvious, yet they will not accept the solution because of (racism, cultural taboo, mumbledy jumbledy reasons).




Those who do not study Trek are doomed to repeat it.  Trek has a morality play structure for a reason.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Umbran said:


> Those who do not study Trek are doomed to repeat it.




So ... what you're saying is that JJ Abrams never studied Trek before making the reboot movies?

_thinking _Yep, checks out.


----------



## Ryujin

Cadence said:


> For a short shining while this summer I was able to return to my daily routine at the local bagel shop for breakfast.  Where, not only is it almost always possible to get a jalapeno bagel with sausage, egg, and pepperjack, a small fruit cup, and an unsweet tea, but where there was also generally music from the mid 70s through the 80s being played.  Why did everything go musically south after my childhood radio listening years!  (I would also happily take most of Motown and select scatterings from the 60s, early 70s, and 90s).



I'm planning on watching "Summer of Soul", on Star, over the weekend to get my fix.


----------



## Zardnaar

Best music of all time is generally whatever you were listening to when you were a teen. 

 Good modern music seems to be coming out of Europe now. Unless you like K-Pop.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> (and occasionally sea shanties).




Interesting that you should mention that.  Because that's what I'm talking about.

Sea shanties (note the root word - _chant_) are originally work songs  They are designed to help a group of people who must act in unison do so.  The Wellerman isn't exactly a classic chanty, but it is close enough to that root to have similar structure.  The song is _BUILT_ to have a group of people able to execute it together with ease.  That's its actual purpose, its _raison d'être._

The same is true for folk music, which, when combined with the blues, gets us country music.  This is music designed for anyone with a fiddle or a banjo or guitar to sit down, and have the entire room signing.

A great deal of pop (and hip-hop) is designed to _showcase the skill_ of the lead vocalist.  There's good cultural and business reasons for that, but one result is that, broadly speaking, the genres become difficult for J. Q. Public to follow along with respectably, because they don't have that skill.

And I submit that's why the shared musical phenomenon was a shanty, and not a tune by the big pop stars of today.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Best music of all time is generally whatever you were listening to when you were a teen.




To be 100% clear.  I'm not actually knocking anyone's music, or saying modern music is bad.  And I sure am not arguing that modern music isn't successful.  

I'm saying it isn't suited to this one particular purpose.

Can anyone here get the difference there?  "Not good for this purpose," does not equal, "bad".  Or is that too easy to lose here.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Umbran said:


> A great deal of pop (and hip-hop) is designed to _showcase the skill_ of the lead vocalist.  There's good cultural and business reasons for that, but one result is that, broadly speaking, the genres become difficult for J. Q. Public to follow along with respectably, because they don't have that skill.




I think you underestimate the ability of John Q. Public to overestimate his skill.


----------



## Janx

Ryujin said:


> You're not wrong. All that we have left for storytelling music might well be Country and even that is being Autotuned and voice synthed away.



What the flying butt nugget are you talking about?

Iron Maiden is STILL writing songs about stories and stuff, without auto-tune.

Rime of the Ancient Mariner
Empire of the Clouds
Paschendale
Gates of Montsegur
Alexander the Great

to name a few.  Every album.

Then there's the steampunks.
The Lisps have a whole album 'Futurity' set in Abe lincoln time with a machine to end all war

The Mechanisms have The Bifrost Incident (and other albums).  The Ratatosk Express has arrived 80 years late and everybody on board is dead.  Inspector Edda has to solve the case.

I don't know where you buy your radio crack, but you are missing out on the good stuff.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Interesting that you should mention that.  Because that's what I'm talking about.
> 
> Sea shanties (note the root word - _chant_) are originally work songs  They are designed to help a group of people who must act in unison do so.  The Wellerman isn't exactly a classic chanty, but it is close enough to that root to have similar structure.  The song is _BUILT_ to have a group of people able to execute it together with ease.  That's its actual purpose, its _raison d'être._
> 
> The same is true for folk music, which, when combined with the blues, gets us country music.  This is music designed for anyone with a fiddle or a banjo or guitar to sit down, and have the entire room signing.
> 
> A great deal of pop (and hip-hop) is designed to _showcase the skill_ of the lead vocalist.  There's good cultural and business reasons for that, but one result is that, broadly speaking, the genres become difficult for J. Q. Public to follow along with respectably, because they don't have that skill.
> 
> And I submit that's why the shared musical phenomenon was a shanty, and not a tune by the big pop stars of today.



... or the skill of the audio tech 

And with respect to Sea Shanties, as with Marching Cadence, the chorus is the unifying factor. You don't need to know the other words. Hell, you can make them up on the fly like with a Rap Battle, but the chorus must be known. (Former resident of Nova Scotia, born in New Brunswick  )

Soon May the Kittyman Come


----------



## Ryujin

Janx said:


> What the flying butt nugget are you talking about?
> 
> Iron Maiden is STILL writing songs about stories and stuff, without auto-tune.
> 
> Rime of the Ancient Mariner
> Empire of the Clouds
> Paschendale
> Gates of Montsegur
> Alexander the Great
> 
> to name a few.  Every album.
> 
> Then there's the steampunks.
> The Lisps have a whole album 'Futurity' set in Abe lincoln time with a machine to end all war
> 
> The Mechanisms have The Bifrost Incident (and other albums).  The Ratatosk Express has arrived 80 years late and everybody on board is dead.  Inspector Edda has to solve the case.
> 
> I don't know where you buy your radio crack, but you are missing out on the good stuff.



Sure, there are still the outliers, but what you usually hear on the radio isn't that. In the late '60s/early '70s it was wall to wall storytelling.

But yeah, I also listen to other stuff. Thing is that much of it hearkens back to even earlier times.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Snarf Zagyg said:


> I think you underestimate the ability of John Q. Public to overestimate his skill.



See any karaoke bar in the world NOT in a major music city.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> And that makes me think of something completely else...
> 
> You know what's wrong with pop music today?  I mean, aside from how I'm old and therefore it is terrible?
> 
> It isn't made for people to _sing along_ to it.  And that means that with all these months and months and months of shared covid experience, none of these mega-pop stars that make a bazillion dollars for every release can make a song about it that we can all fully share.  And that's a darned shame.



On this particular tangent, let me introduce Rick Beato: musician, producer, educator. The more you know music, the more you get what he‘s talking about.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

As it so happens, my Dad & I have been going to the same barber for 10+ years now. Every year, Dad reminds him of the dangers of the seasonal flu, etc., and of course, he added C19 to the list. Every year, our barber refused to get vaxxed.

2 weeks ago, he cancelled my appointment, citing feeling off after an early AM dental appointment & aborted workout.

Went back in yesterday for my haircut, and he’s in there wearing one of the N95 masks Dad gave him. He said he didn’t merely have a bad reaction to the dental meds, he had been diagnosed with Covid. He got lucky: he wasn’t hospitalized, but he really felt like crap for 10+ days. He told me to tell Dad that- as soon as he was cleared to do so (approx. 90 days), he was getting his Covid shot. AND his flu shot when they become available. AND his Shingrix shot.

Basically, he got juuuuuust sick enough to overcome his lifetime of qualms about vaccinations.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> This is music designed for anyone with a fiddle or a banjo or guitar to sit down, and have the entire room signing.



I'm pretty sure Auto-correct got to that last word, but it does bring up the image of a bunch of deaf people at a specialized bar / concert venue using sign language to join in and accompany the band.


----------



## Imaculata

Speaking of which, the other week I saw a concert where the lead vocalist had an interpreter for the deaf standing on stage. And this interpreter was able to keep up with the speed of the song some how, and able to repeat in sign language whatever bad word came out of the lead vocalist's mouth. Maybe more bands should do this.


----------



## Deset Gled

Imaculata said:


> Speaking of which, the other week I saw a concert where the lead vocalist had an interpreter for the deaf standing on stage. And this interpreter was able to keep up with the speed of the song some how, and able to repeat in sign language whatever bad word came out of the lead vocalist's mouth. Maybe more bands should do this.




Peter, Paul, and Mary did this for part of a concert I saw in the 90s.

Of course, SNL were also pioneers with their news for the hearing impaired.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> Speaking of which, the other week I saw a concert where the lead vocalist had an interpreter for the deaf standing on stage. And this interpreter was able to keep up with the speed of the song some how, and able to repeat in sign language whatever bad word came out of the lead vocalist's mouth. Maybe more bands should do this.



I’ve seen it happen a few times.  I think it’s cool.


----------



## Mirtek

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Update:
> 
> 
> 
> For those who don’t speak Catholicese: although masses will resume 08/15/21, parishioners in the Diocese of Dallas will NOT be required to attend.



Required? Wow, the churches in Germany would get laughed in the face if they tried that


----------



## Ryujin

Deset Gled said:


> Peter, Paul, and Mary did this for part of a concert I saw in the 90s.
> 
> Of course, SNL were also pioneers with their news for the hearing impaired.



I'm guessing that people don't remember Garret Morris, or more would find that funny


----------



## Janx

Ryujin said:


> Sure, there are still the outliers, but what you usually hear on the radio isn't that. In the late '60s/early '70s it was wall to wall storytelling.
> 
> But yeah, I also listen to other stuff. Thing is that much of it hearkens back to even earlier times.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> I'm pretty sure Auto-correct got to that last word, but it does bring up the image of a bunch of deaf people at a specialized bar / concert venue using sign language to join in and accompany the band.




Not auto-correct.  Just a typo.  I'll own it 

There are some really awesome American Sign Language interpreters out there who specialize in interpreting for musical performances.


----------



## TheAlkaizer

I mentioned a few months ago how the pandemic made me realize how much tabletop are an integral part of my social habits. I also had no interest in playing online. So it's been a very boring year and a half.

But, a few weeks ago I resumed the Starfinder campaign I had started before the pandemic. Two sessions so far. It's been a ton of fun.

But I'm also so, so happy as things seem to come back to normal. I had two groups (close friends and coworkers) that asked me to DM something for them. I've got about a dozen new TTRPG games on my shelves that I've been wanting to try, so I'll most likely nudge them towards that if they're willing.

It just feels so good to get back into it and not to worldbuild or create content int oblivion.


----------



## Cadence

I had somehow missed this until it showed up in our local paper that our state is also not tracking this now.  So, mild breakthrough cases in the vaccinated aren't being tracked by the US CDC anymore, but hospitalizations and deaths are.  I mean, I understand that just tracking positives is more work and has lots of data issues (they have to decide to get tested, etc...), but still...  it makes the statistician side of me want to go yell at people (if that were safe to do).









						CDC under fire for decision to limit tracking of Covid-19 cases in vaccinated people
					

The agency’s decision to limit its reporting of breakthrough cases has prompted wide variation in how states keep tabs on them.




					www.politico.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mirtek said:


> Required? Wow, the churches in Germany would get laughed in the face if they tried that



It’s one of the differences between Catholicism and most protestant branches, including Lutheranism- the dominant denomination in Germany.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

I read something just now that I had to post here-

_Something I’ve noticed in recent years that Wu didn’t get into is that readers desire precision in metaphors and analogies, even though metaphor is — by definition! — not supposed to be taken literally. People seem much more interested in taking analogies apart, identifying what doesn’t work, and discarding them rather than — more generously and constructively IMO — using them as the author intended to better understand the subject matter. *The perfect metaphor doesn’t exist because then it wouldn’t be a metaphor.*_

(h/t kottke.org)

This was posted as an observation about the pandemic, but this also encapsulates, perfectly, a feeling I've had when having discussions on the internet. A truly good metaphor or analogy can be used to illuminate; they are the perfect mechanism when you are trying to explain something in order to get a concept across.

But far too often, internet discussions are not conversations and are not viewed (by many people) as an attempt to understand something, but instead as attempt to battle it. So instead of attempting to see the utility (even if limited) of the analogy, all the effort is put into rubbishing it because ... the analogy is not, and cannot be, the same as whatever is being discussed. _sigh_


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> This was posted as an observation about the pandemic, but this also encapsulates, perfectly, a feeling I've had when having discussions on the internet. A truly good metaphor or analogy can be used to illuminate; they are the perfect mechanism when you are trying to explain something in order to get a concept across.




It is my observation that metaphors are useful primarily a tool for _instruction_, rather than discussion.  In instruction, the metaphor can be used to introduce a broad concept, followed with further detail, which eventually supplants that introduction in the student's mind.  In discussion, however, the speaker is not positioned to follow with sufficient detail before the other participants engage - the metaphor does not get supplanted, and the discussion becomes about the metaphor, instead of the following details that never came about.

The most effective use of metaphor is in literature, in which the audience never gets to interrogate the author about it. 



Snarf Zagyg said:


> But far too often, internet discussions are not conversations and are not viewed (by many people) as an attempt to understand something, but instead as attempt to battle it.




In the real world, folks typically enter a discussion to present their conclusions, rather than to reach a conclusion.

Internet discussion are conversations - but they are not the Socratic method that we might pretend them to be.  This is expected - the Socratic method is better in theory than in practice.  It fails when the speakers become attached to their positions, which is nearly always.


----------



## Janx

Snarf Zagyg said:


> I read something just now that I had to post here-
> 
> _Something I’ve noticed in recent years that Wu didn’t get into is that readers desire precision in metaphors and analogies, even though metaphor is — by definition! — not supposed to be taken literally. People seem much more interested in taking analogies apart, identifying what doesn’t work, and discarding them rather than — more generously and constructively IMO — using them as the author intended to better understand the subject matter. *The perfect metaphor doesn’t exist because then it wouldn’t be a metaphor.*_
> 
> (h/t kottke.org)
> 
> This was posted as an observation about the pandemic, but this also encapsulates, perfectly, a feeling I've had when having discussions on the internet. A truly good metaphor or analogy can be used to illuminate; they are the perfect mechanism when you are trying to explain something in order to get a concept across.
> 
> But far too often, internet discussions are not conversations and are not viewed (by many people) as an attempt to understand something, but instead as attempt to battle it. So instead of attempting to see the utility (even if limited) of the analogy, all the effort is put into rubbishing it because ... the analogy is not, and cannot be, the same as whatever is being discussed. _sigh_



hmm, I wonder if this is an American culture thing.  

Japan, China, is chock full of zen koans, cryptic sayings, and metaphor.  Do they lose their minds over metaphor like we do?

Ask "What is the sound of one hand clapping" and they go meditate.  We sit around flapping our fingers into our palms and grin at how clever we are.


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> Ask "What is the sound of one hand clapping" and they go meditate. We sit around flapping our fingers into our palms and grin at how clever we are.




Not at all.  Those traditions are strongly in the teacher/student mode.  The teacher asks, 'What is the sound of one hand clapping," and then _sends the student go and meditate_ on it instead of allowing the student to pose inquiries.

On these boards, nobody takes the student role.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Umbran said:


> It is my observation that metaphors are useful primarily a tool for _instruction_, rather than discussion.  In instruction, the metaphor can be used to introduce a broad concept, followed with further detail, which eventually supplants that introduction in the student's mind.  In discussion, however, the speaker is not positioned to follow with sufficient detail before the other participants engage - the metaphor does not get supplanted, and the discussion becomes about the metaphor, instead of the following details that never came about.




I don't agree with this, but only because you are using _discussion _as a synonym for _argument. _

Instruction (or learning) does not have to be from the position of principal/agent or teacher/student. Instead, it often works well in a multi-modal approach ... assuming people that are engaged are listening.

In real life (as you later put it), I have many discussions with people in which I both instruct and learn; the internet tends to disfavor this type of discussion. Most people eschew learning in favor of argument.


----------



## J.Quondam

Snarf Zagyg said:


> I read something just now that I had to post here-
> 
> _Something I’ve noticed in recent years that Wu didn’t get into is that readers desire precision in metaphors and analogies, even though metaphor is — by definition! — not supposed to be taken literally. People seem much more interested in taking analogies apart, identifying what doesn’t work, and discarding them rather than — more generously and constructively IMO — using them as the author intended to better understand the subject matter. *The perfect metaphor doesn’t exist because then it wouldn’t be a metaphor.*_
> 
> (h/t kottke.org)
> 
> This was posted as an observation about the pandemic, but this also encapsulates, perfectly, a feeling I've had when having discussions on the internet. A truly good metaphor or analogy can be used to illuminate; they are the perfect mechanism when you are trying to explain something in order to get a concept across.
> 
> But far too often, internet discussions are not conversations and are not viewed (by many people) as an attempt to understand something, but instead as attempt to battle it. So instead of attempting to see the utility (even if limited) of the analogy, all the effort is put into rubbishing it because ... the analogy is not, and cannot be, the same as whatever is being discussed. _sigh_



I think the perfect metaphor for this is like when druids wear metal armor.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> Not at all.  Those traditions are strongly in the teacher/student mode.  The teacher asks, 'What is the sound of one hand clapping," and then _sends the student go and meditate_ on it instead of allowing the student to pose inquiries.
> 
> On these boards, nobody takes the student role.



you know, it's funny you say that, because between this side-topic here and in the What If, there are countless threads on EN World over the last 20 years where I was wrong and you changed my mind.  From simple facts to philosophical stances.

I learn stuff from you all the smurfing time.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Snarf Zagyg said:


> I read something just now that I had to post here-
> 
> _Something I’ve noticed in recent years that Wu didn’t get into is that readers desire precision in metaphors and analogies, even though metaphor is — by definition! — not supposed to be taken literally. People seem much more interested in taking analogies apart, identifying what doesn’t work, and discarding them rather than — more generously and constructively IMO — using them as the author intended to better understand the subject matter. *The perfect metaphor doesn’t exist because then it wouldn’t be a metaphor.*_
> 
> (h/t kottke.org)
> 
> This was posted as an observation about the pandemic, but this also encapsulates, perfectly, a feeling I've had when having discussions on the internet. A truly good metaphor or analogy can be used to illuminate; they are the perfect mechanism when you are trying to explain something in order to get a concept across.
> 
> But far too often, internet discussions are not conversations and are not viewed (by many people) as an attempt to understand something, but instead as attempt to battle it. So instead of attempting to see the utility (even if limited) of the analogy, all the effort is put into rubbishing it because ... the analogy is not, and cannot be, the same as whatever is being discussed. _sigh_



This is also true of hyperbole. It's an _intended_ exaggeration for effect. People on the internet tend to treat it like it is a bad thing (in and if itself and not just when used poorly) and _intentionally_ call it out and argue with it, even when knowing full well that it was intended as an exaggeration. In my mind  if both parties know what is being said, then there is no sense in arguing about _how_ it's said. (Within reason, of course).


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> I don't agree with this, but only because you are using _discussion _as a synonym for _argument. _




No, I am not.  I note that you might be falling into the very mode you are regretting in the post.  How do I know?  You are _telling_ me what I mean, rather than _asking_ for clarification with an open mind. 



Snarf Zagyg said:


> Instruction (or learning) does not have to be from the position of principal/agent or teacher/student.




I would say Learning does not have to be in that form.  Instruction largely does.  Instruction implies an instructor, and an instructee.  There's ways to learn that aren't being instructed.

And this, by the way, is why metaphor doesn't work well in discussion.  Our dance here around definitions is equivalent to dancing around a metaphor finding out what the speaker meant by it, and disagreeing over bits.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Umbran said:


> No, I am not.  I note that you might be falling into the very mode you are regretting in the post. .




uh huh.

I just posted a quote that I thought reflected on how disagreeable discussions on the internet are, and the first thing you did was disagree with it.

I may appreciate the irony differently than you do.


----------



## Hussar

FitzTheRuke said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong about any of this (I have friends who live in Japan and I've been there six or seven times) - As a gaijin, you don't ever even have the option of owning the _land_, you just have the rights to the house and its use?




This is not true. Foreign people can buy land in Japan just fine.


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> Not at all. Those traditions are strongly in the teacher/student mode. The teacher asks, 'What is the sound of one hand clapping," and then _sends the student go and meditate_ on it instead of allowing the student to pose inquiries.
> 
> On these boards, nobody takes the student role.




Well I’m Japanese education it would be far more likely for the teacher to give you the one true answer that the student must not question and must be able to rote repeat perfectly. 

Please don’t get me started about the state of Japanese education.


----------



## Hussar

Note if you don’t mind living in the countryside and you have kids it is entirely possible to get a free house and land in Japan. 

When you have a serious aging population problem and your population is predicted to drop in about half in the next generation, all sorts of new problems crop up.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Hussar said:


> This is not true. Foreign people can buy land in Japan just fine.




Huh. I guess I was misinformed. So you _can_ do it, but the more reasonable option (cost-wise) is to buy the house without the land, even though it depreciates?


----------



## Hussar

FitzTheRuke said:


> Huh. I guess I was misinformed. So you _can_ do it, but the more reasonable option (cost-wise) is to buy the house without the land, even though it depreciates?




As far as I know, you’re describing a condominium set up. Which is possible but is almost never a house. 

Remember this system is based on the idea that a house is not an investment. You buy that one house in your lifetime and, baring rare cases, you will die in that house, your children will sell the land. The land generally holds its value. 

But the house is worth nothing in 20 years.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Hussar said:


> As far as I know, you’re describing a condominium set up. Which is possible but is almost never a house.
> 
> Remember this system is based on the idea that a house is not an investment. You buy that one house in your lifetime and, baring rare cases, you will die in that house, your children will sell the land. The land generally holds its value.
> 
> But the house is worth nothing in 20 years.




I think I may have misunderstood  you before. I thought you were suggesting that in Japan you would regularly buy a house separate from buying the land (like how a condo works here in Canada or the 'States). I got the impression that things worked more differently there than they apparently do.

Houses are rarely worth a dime compared to the price of the land. My parents house (that I mentioned earlier) is considered worthless, in spite of its nice 100-year old hardwood floors. It's the land that's worth all the money.

Still, as they aren't sold separately, you're always buying the land when you buy a stand-alone house.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Note if you don’t mind living in the countryside and you have kids it is entirely possible to get a free house and land in Japan.
> 
> When you have a serious aging population problem and your population is predicted to drop in about half in the next generation, all sorts of new problems crop up.




 Seen that on YouTube. 

 Free house if you're willing to move to a town and live there for 15 years.


----------



## Imaculata

So, the Dutch government has just stated their goal of lifting all Covid rules by September 20th. This includes the requirement for masks in public transport and the need to keep 1,5 meters distance. I wonder if they are not making yet another deadly mistake.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FWIW, I can do a one-handed “clap”.  It’s a quick snap of the wrist that makes a soft clapping sound as the tips of the middle and ring fingers strike the base of my thumb.

Zen types find it inordinately annoying…


----------



## CapnZapp

Utter folly.

I live in a country where the restrictions are lax and the general feeling is "the pandemic is over" myself.

I feel your pain. If anything it seems possible Delta is unstoppable, even among countries with access to the vaccine and the authorial organization needed to do proper lock-downs. ️


----------



## Zardnaar

Delta comparison. 

 Sydney NSW in Australia. 









						NSW has no chance of Covid-19 elimination now - Expert
					

NZ professor warns Australian Delta variant outbreak may be beyond control, as regional NSW goes into lockdown.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Cases keep rising despite "restrictions" that aren't that restrictive nor enforced that hard. 

 The rest of Australia seems on top of it. The local premier (think governor) seems useless. 

Melbourne similar size almost eliminated delta it seems. 

Australia had really good numbers last year or so with around 900 deaths for 25 million people or so. 

 Not looking good though. They've done 8 and 12 week lockdowns, Melbourne spent three months in lockdown not "lockdown".

 Same country different states cities with around 5 million inhabitants.

 Murdoch media the three main channels are Fox news light and 2 wannabe Fox news light. And he owns a good chunk of the other media as well.

 Compare with the Capital. 









						Australian capital Canberra goes into snap lockdown
					

The one-week lockdown comes after Canberra recorded its first case of Covid-19 for more than a year.



					www.bbc.com
				




 First case in a year. And Australia not doing great with vaccines tldr supply issues. 









						What's gone wrong with Australia's vaccine rollout?
					

The country has been far slower than others including the UK and the US to immunise its population.



					www.bbc.com
				




 In other news Australia still sucks at Rugby. 









						All Blacks vs Wallabies: New Zealanders run up record score to tuck away Bledisloe
					

Ian Foster's men hit top form at Eden Park on Saturday night to run up their biggest score over the Aussies.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> Note if you don’t mind living in the countryside and you have kids it is entirely possible to get a free house and land in Japan.
> 
> When you have a serious aging population problem and your population is predicted to drop in about half in the next generation, all sorts of new problems crop up.



I watched a number of Youtube videos about an Australian who did exactly that. There are a fair number of rural properties that are inherited by the children then just basically left to rot, because the children want to live in the city. As a result you can acquire the property for the outstanding taxes which can be a tiny amount, or a substantial amount. Due to the bureaucracy involved this particular individual didn't know how much it was going to cost until he was actually in the middle of the process and it was somewhat more than expected.


----------



## Cadence

Ryujin said:


> I watched a number of Youtube videos about an Australian who did exactly that. There are a fair number of rural properties that are inherited by the children then just basically left to rot, because the children want to live in the city. As a result you can acquire the property for the outstanding taxes which can be a tiny amount, or a substantial amount. Due to the bureaucracy involved this particular individual didn't know how much it was going to cost until he was actually in the middle of the process and it was somewhat more than expected.



Is it Italy where some towns are paying people to move there and live in (nearly) free property?

A few years ago were some cities in the Midwestern US buying up blocks of vacant housing and turning it in to green space? 

Feels like there could be something that would be a start to helping the homeless or folks at the borders if there are a lot of empty houses...


----------



## Deset Gled

Cadence said:


> Is it Italy where some towns are paying people to move there and live in (nearly) free property?
> 
> A few years ago were some cities in the Midwestern US buying up blocks of vacant housing and turning it in to green space?
> 
> Feels like there could be something that would be a start to helping the homeless or folks at the borders if there are a lot of empty houses...




While I appreciate the good intentions, I think there are very few times in history where "relocating the undesirables" like this has ended well.


----------



## Cadence

Deset Gled said:


> While I appreciate the good intentions, I think there are very few times in history where "relocating the undesirables" like this has ended well.



It feels like even while some cities were leveling property that they still had people without homes.  And if you have refugees or large numbers immigrating for safety concerns, they need a place somewhere. (The "start" was in my post because obviously a lot more than just a house is needed, but it feels potentially better than a tent city, for example. Without extra support we do have plenty of examples of how public housing can be done really badly though).


----------



## Ryujin

Cadence said:


> Is it Italy where some towns are paying people to move there and live in (nearly) free property?
> 
> A few years ago were some cities in the Midwestern US buying up blocks of vacant housing and turning it in to green space?
> 
> Feels like there could be something that would be a start to helping the homeless or folks at the borders if there are a lot of empty houses...



A couple of years ago there was a town in either New Brunswick or Nova Scotia, Canada, that was offering free homes to people who relocated there, if they met certain criteria.

I'm with Deset Gled on the "relocating the undesirables" thing. Integrating people into existing communities seems to work far better at elevating people out of poverty. Creating artificial communities like that tends to result in engineered slums. For use as interim housing? Sure, but not as a long term solution.


----------



## Cadence

Ryujin said:


> A couple of years ago there was a town in either New Brunswick or Nova Scotia, Canada, that was offering free homes to people who relocated there, if they met certain criteria.
> 
> I'm with Deset Gled on the "relocating the undesirables" thing. Integrating people into existing communities seems to work far better at elevating people out of poverty. Creating artificial communities like that tends to result in engineered slums. For use as interim housing? Sure, but not as a long term solution.




No argument against that.

It feels like the people who need the most support need the best locations in terms of being close to lots of opportunities and services.  Which means the places for them to live are competing with the folks with lots of $.  I'm not sure how to fix that without burning the entire system down.

I don't think most places would even be happy with  legal requirements for every neighborhood to have a certain percent of affordable/subsidized housing.  And if they were, a lot of that housing won't be close to where the people who could use it are or want to be (as suburbs without a ton of jobs nearby or in states hundreds of miles away).


----------



## J.Quondam

_A propos_ of something, probably:









						Zillow, Other Tech Firms Are in an ‘Arms Race’ To Buy Up American Homes
					

"iBuyers" are gearing up to grow massively in the coming years, with unforeseen consequences for the U.S. housing market.




					www.vice.com


----------



## Cadence

J.Quondam said:


> _A propos_ of something, probably:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zillow, Other Tech Firms Are in an ‘Arms Race’ To Buy Up American Homes
> 
> 
> "iBuyers" are gearing up to grow massively in the coming years, with unforeseen consequences for the U.S. housing market.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.vice.com




Reminds me that I need to write a letter to my state, county, and city reps about considering different zoning/tax classifications to head some of this off locally.  

I just wish there was a nice way to balance the desire to have affordable housing for purchases by families, the need for some rental houses for families, and the need for some people to rent a house in the short term (newly inherited, etc...), with everything else.


----------



## J.Quondam

Yeah, me too.  But a very wise person once said:


Cadence said:


> I'm not sure how to fix that without burning the entire system down.



I find myself agreeing.  I mean, I understand all the competing interests: tenants, landlords, home owners, homeless, debtors, creditors. It's not a tidy situation, and while I'd love to see everyone integrated into the system in a legitimate way, I also don't want to see anyone doing okay ending up shafted. (Well, except the predatory ubercapitalist institutions for which a "home" is just a figure on a ledger, instead of a biological necessity for human beings. Those profiteers can go [_censored_].)
There's just too much inequality right now and no clear way to correct it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

J.Quondam said:


> _A propos_ of something, probably:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zillow, Other Tech Firms Are in an ‘Arms Race’ To Buy Up American Homes
> 
> 
> "iBuyers" are gearing up to grow massively in the coming years, with unforeseen consequences for the U.S. housing market.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.vice.com



That’s a small tangent off of what I was talking about earlier- the venture capital companies buying up houses to make rental properties.  At least Zillow, et alia are putting the homes back on the SALE market, not retaining them as rentals.


----------



## J.Quondam

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That’s a small tangent off of what I was talking about earlier- the venture capital companies buying up houses to make rental properties.  At least Zillow, et alia are putting the homes back on the SALE market, not retaining them as rentals.



Yeah, for the time being. Done right, this approach _could_ really simplify homebuying, especially for people new to the market or who want a really streamlined process.

BUT... that streamlining works across the board. One especially soulless quote from that article was this:


> That would be welcome news for people like Alex Villacorta, the co-founder and chief data officer of ResiShares, an investment management company focused on residential real estate. “If they can get enough inventory flow, they’ll end up being a marketplace for investors,” said Villacorta. “We would be more than happy to buy in bulk off of them.”
> “We can take 100 here, 50 there, 25 there and build out a portfolio basically overnight,” Villacorta continued. “I can see a world where there’s a lot more institutional buying out there and if you're in that space, you’re probably working with Zillow.”



"Inventory flow." "Portfolio." The bulk realestate "space." And exactly zero regard for housing as "homes" for real human beings. It's just straight-up profit potential. If these investment institutions start offering Zillow, et al, more money than regular buyers, there's no way Zillow, et al, won't be all over that.
The vultures are already licking their chops over this.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

J.Quondam said:


> There's just too much inequality right now and no clear way to correct it.



Well…there’s lots of ideas, some of which have gotten tested in the real world.  But a lot of them- even when proven to be effective or at least better than the current situations- run afoul of powerful people’s self-interests, widely held beliefs about poverty and people work ethics, misconceptions about who actually needs what, actual costs, and so forth.

To illustrate just one aspect: I've mentioned Dad is an MD.  He’s done well, financially.  Contrary to what many would expect, he actually wishes we had a single payer system because a lot of the current regime in the USA involves insurance companies paying him less than his services cost him.  Sometimes not at all.  And because of the tax laws, he cannot write off “bad debt” on his taxes like other businesses can.  This means that there are certain patients he could be helping that he can’t afford to.  And it’s not just his specialty, either- the MDs who performed life saving procedures on his mother a few years ago were literally compensated 10¢ on the dollar, with no recourse for any other compensation from other sources.  How many of us could stay in business if you were only paid at a 90% discount?


----------



## briggart

Cadence said:


> Is it Italy where some towns are paying people to move there and live in (nearly) free property?



They were paying people mostly in the sense that if you bought one of these houses you would be exempt from local property taxes for a number of years, and the houses could be bought for few euros but none of these were in livable conditions, so you would need to spend tens of thousands of euros in renovation. These houses are usually in the poorer parts of the country, where for generations people had been leaving to look for work elsewhere, leaving a lot of properties to basically crumble. The goal of these plans is mainly to attract (foreign) tourists who can afford a vacation home in the hopes of boosting the local economy and allowing local people to find jobs without having to emigrate.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sydney Australia. 
 9 weeks of lockdown (sorta) more military being deployed and fines of $3000 for breaking the rules. 









						Australia: New South Wales 'in worst ever Covid situation'
					

While case numbers are relatively low, the Australian state's premier has warned of a Covid surge.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dominoes falling in Arkansas:








						Arkansas hospital exec says health care workers are walking off the job amid spike in COVID-19 cases
					

Health care workers in Arkansas are starting to walk off the job as instances of short staffing and burnout continue to increase in the state.




					thehill.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Re: housing incentives 








						Move here, get paid: Small towns offer up to $20K just to get you to live there, work remotely
					

A number of small towns are dangling up to $20,000 to lure remote workers and boost their economies. Incentives are up as more people work from home.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Re: housing incentives
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Move here, get paid: Small towns offer up to $20K just to get you to live there, work remotely
> 
> 
> A number of small towns are dangling up to $20,000 to lure remote workers and boost their economies. Incentives are up as more people work from home.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




 Meanwhile here the cities have priced people out and $280k USD or so is a cheap house in a small town. 









						'Zombie towns' get new lease of life as 'hostile' cities force residents out
					

The South Waikato was once labelled a zombie as population and jobs declined. Now there's hundreds of new houses being built and business is growing.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Spent time last night with potential migrant looking at living costs. He wants to migrate to small town NZ from Argentina.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’m not one for wishing ill upon others, but…I _really_ hope this guy gets a spot in hell.









						An Indiana doctor's COVID-19 comments went viral. They were also full of misinformation.
					

Dr. Dan Stock, a doctor from Greenfield, spread misinformation about masks at a school board meeting in Indiana. It went viral.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## J.Quondam

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m not one for wishing ill upon others, but…I _really_ hope this guy gets a spot in hell.




And it's spread _everywhere_:









						Misinformation at public forums vexes local boards, big tech
					

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — There are plenty of places to turn for accurate information about COVID-19. Your physician. Local health departments. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control. But not, perhaps, your local government's public comment session.




					apnews.com
				




Wingnut propaganda is a hell of a drug.


----------



## Rabulias

There ought to be a way to revoke medical licensing for doctors who spout nonsense that runs counter to public health (not to mention truth). It seems there are few consequences for lying about things like this, and many incentives to feed the subculture that believes these things.


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> Wingnut propaganda is a hell of a drug.




It is _comforting_ in a way the truth isn't, unfortunately.


----------



## Ryujin

Rabulias said:


> There ought to be a way to revoke medical licensing for doctors who spout nonsense that runs counter to public health (not to mention truth). It seems there are few consequences for lying about things like this, and many incentives to feed the subculture that believes these things.



That sort of thing does occasionally (though very rarely) happen. Complaints to the particular medical registrar can result in loss of license, if the situation is extreme enough. It's more common in the case of things like falsified studies, as with discredited UK physician Andrew Wakefield and his study about vaccines causing autism, which was published in The Lancet, then retracted after it was found that his data had been falsified, or at the very least misrepresented. And still, to this day, this study is raised by anti-vaxxers as "proof."


----------



## Zardnaar

You have no mechanism to strip licence's?


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> You have no mechanism to strip licence's?




Medical licensing is handled on a state-by-state basis.  Broadly speaking, unless the doctor _directly_ harms someone, it will be hard for them to lose their license.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Medical licensing is handled on a state-by-state basis.  Broadly speaking, unless the doctor _directly_ harms someone, it will be hard for them to lose their license.




 Thought it would be something like that. 

 Do they get trained to the same standards or does that vary by state as well? Not including the "better" med schools due to economic factors.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Do they get trained to the same standards or does that vary by state as well? Not including the "better" med schools due to economic factors.




So, _training_ is dependent on what school you go to.  Once out of school, you get licensed to practice in a particular State, and you take their licensing exam.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> So, _training_ is dependent on what school you go to.  Once out of school, you get licensed to practice in a particular State, and you take their licensing exam.




 Ah got it. I was just wondering if they set the requirements as we at med school.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The laws for stripping a MD of his state license vary greatly, and many jurisdictions require multiple MDs go on the record to substantiate the severity of the accused doctor’s actions.  That’s a tall order.

There’s almost always a loophole of sorts, but it’s a doozy: a legal finding of malpractice that results in serious injuries or death.  

But again, barring said misconduct being obvious even to a layman, you’ll need MDs to prove that in court.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Texas update:

1) In Dallas county, we are down to only 25 ICU beds.

2) The TxSuppCt ruled against Gov. Abbot’s order banning masking mandates


----------



## Hussar

FitzTheRuke said:


> I think I may have misunderstood  you before. I thought you were suggesting that in Japan you would regularly buy a house separate from buying the land (like how a condo works here in Canada or the 'States). I got the impression that things worked more differently there than they apparently do.
> 
> Houses are rarely worth a dime compared to the price of the land. My parents house (that I mentioned earlier) is considered worthless, in spite of its nice 100-year old hardwood floors. It's the land that's worth all the money.
> 
> Still, as they aren't sold separately, you're always buying the land when you buy a stand-alone house.



Yes, well, a hundred years to depreciate a house seems considerably more reasonable than 20.   

But, no, it's the same in Japan.  You buy the land and the house.  Thing is, here the land price is about double the price of your house, whereas in North America, that's usually the reverse, or even less in a lot of places.  Like I said, if you buy a 25 year old house, you are pretty much expected to bulldoze it and rebuild a new house, whereas in Canada, a 25 year old house isn't even considered old.

As far as the "free housing" thing goes, again, it's so much to do with Japan's birthrate.  They know the crash is coming and they're desperate to do anything to stop it.  When you lose half your population in a generation, your country falls apart.  And, when you have nearly zero immigration to offset falling birthrates, as Japan does, that population decline is going to go into freefall very soon.  Towns dying all over the country has been going on for a while and it's only accellerating.  Not a surprise that Italy, with it's really low birthrate, is facing the same issues.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Yes, well, a hundred years to depreciate a house seems considerably more reasonable than 20.
> 
> But, no, it's the same in Japan.  You buy the land and the house.  Thing is, here the land price is about double the price of your house, whereas in North America, that's usually the reverse, or even less in a lot of places.  Like I said, if you buy a 25 year old house, you are pretty much expected to bulldoze it and rebuild a new house, whereas in Canada, a 25 year old house isn't even considered old.
> 
> As far as the "free housing" thing goes, again, it's so much to do with Japan's birthrate.  They know the crash is coming and they're desperate to do anything to stop it.  When you lose half your population in a generation, your country falls apart.  And, when you have nearly zero immigration to offset falling birthrates, as Japan does, that population decline is going to go into freefall very soon.  Towns dying all over the country has been going on for a while and it's only accellerating.  Not a surprise that Italy, with it's really low birthrate, is facing the same issues.




 So 25% population growth in 15 years or so is alot?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Texas update:
> 
> 1) In Dallas county, we are down to only 25 ICU beds.
> 
> 2) The TxSuppCt ruled against Gov. Abbot’s order banning masking mandates



Aaaaaand apparently, #2 is incorrect.  The news outlet I was listening to at the time had it wrong- there isn’t a final ruling, but there are TROs issued against Dallas and Bexar counties until the other cases can be heard.

…and the counties are going ahead anyway.


----------



## J.Quondam

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Aaaaaand apparently, #2 is incorrect.  The news outlet I was listening to at the time had it wrong- there isn’t a final ruling, but there are TROs issued against Dallas and Bexar counties until the other cases can be heard.
> 
> …and the counties are going ahead anyway.



r Bizarro World makes more sense than Texas.


----------



## Scars Unseen

My ex-wife was asking if I would plan a trip to take my daughter to visit family back in the US (I currently live in Japan).  I honestly wish I could, since it would allow me to visit some dear friends and maybe even get some D&D time in, but especially since my family is in Texas...  absolutely not.  Not until the pandemic is actually _over,_ and I thanks to people like Abbot and people who buy into their bunk, I have zero confidence that's going to happen anytime soon.


----------



## Zardnaar

Scars Unseen said:


> My ex-wife was asking if I would plan a trip to take my daughter to visit family back in the US (I currently live in Japan).  I honestly wish I could, since it would allow me to visit some dear friends and maybe even get some D&D time in, but especially since my family is in Texas...  absolutely not.  Not until the pandemic is actually _over,_ and I thanks to people like Abbot and people who buy into their bunk, I have zero confidence that's going to happen anytime soon.




 Tony Abbot?


----------



## Scars Unseen

Zardnaar said:


> Tony Abbot?



The very same (oops at misspelling Abbott, the governor of Texas).


----------



## Zardnaar

Scars Unseen said:


> The very same (oops at misspelling Abbott, the governor of Texas).




 I'm a bit vague on the intricacies of Aussie and Canadian political types but figured it was him.


----------



## Scars Unseen

Zardnaar said:


> I'm a bit vague on the intricacies of Aussie and Canadian political types but figured it was him.



Just to clarify, I was joking in that last response.  My post was referring to Greg Abbott, the current governor of the great plaguelands of Texas.  In retrospect, I'm wondering if we should just ban all Abbotts to be safe.


----------



## Zardnaar

Scars Unseen said:


> Just to clarify, I was joking in that last response.  My post was referring to Greg Abbott, the current governor of the great plaguelands of Texas.  In retrospect, I'm wondering if we should just ban all Abbotts to be safe.




Ah rgr got it derp. Just been slumming it in the land of the long white sheep erm cloud.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

So in my news today, we have a close friend of the family who can't get a port put in for their cancer treatment because that's an elective treatment, and they can't do any elective surgeries due to staff and room shortages due to COVID.

It sucks, because I hear people talk about "elective" procedures like it's plastic surgery, but it's not. This has profound ripple effects throughout the healthcare system.

(For that matter, one of my partner's good friends is a nurse that lives in a major city. He quit his job last month because he couldn't take another wave.)


----------



## Cadence

When you spend quite a while rearranging the University classroom of 54 desks you'll be using (30 or so for the COVID Capacity, 15 or so labeled not to use to allow for spatial distancing, and 4 that would be over regular capacity) to have actual spacing... only to find out afterwards that there isn't supposed to be any spatial distancing and the stickers should come off those 15.

Glad my class is only up to 25 live and is taped for the rest (or those of the 25 who want to watch from home).  

----

As far as the K-12 schools - apparently our district isn't offering a virtual option because the state says we can only have 5% in the district virtual and it would be a nightmare fighting off lawsuits about who got in and who didn't, and we don't have new ventilation systems because why would that be in a budget.  (Of note, we've known for a long time the state budget proviso said we couldn't have a mask requirement.  As for the budget, the state apparently has a $1.7 billion surplus somehow - I'm guessing they'll push for tax cuts).


----------



## Ryujin

Cadence said:


> When you spend quite a while rearranging the University classroom of 54 desks you'll be using (30 or so for the COVID Capacity, 15 or so labeled not to use to allow for spatial distancing, and 4 that would be over regular capacity) to have actual spacing... only to find out afterwards that there isn't supposed to be any spatial distancing and the stickers should come off those 15.
> 
> Glad my class is only up to 25 live and is taped for the rest (or those of the 25 who want to watch from home).
> 
> ----
> 
> As far as the K-12 schools - apparently our district isn't offering a virtual option because the state says we can only have 5% in the district virtual and it would be a nightmare fighting off lawsuits about who got in and who didn't, and we don't have new ventilation systems because why would that be in a budget.  (Of note, we've known for a long time the state budget proviso said we couldn't have a mask requirement.  As for the budget, the state apparently has a $1.7 billion surplus somehow - I'm guessing they'll push for tax cuts).



At this point it sounds like the only in person classes we'll be having, are likely to be the ones that require labs. There are some regulatory organization tests that require in person invigilating, too, but that seems to be about all we know at this point about classes. One other thing we know is that staff/faculty/students will be required to divulge their vaccination status. Double vaccinated and you're clear to come on campus. Not vaccinated or refuse to divulge, and you're going to be tested. No idea what the "divulge" means at this point (official documentation or just a personal attestation), but that's the lay of the land for Fall semester.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> At this point it sounds like the only in person class we'll be having, are likely to be the ones that require labs. There are some regulatory organization tests that require in person invigilating, too, but that seems to be about all we know at this point about classes.




My wife is a veterinarian.  Done with school, but requires Continuing Education every year.

The state _has not significantly changed_ the CE requirements to fit the current situation.  There is plenty of online CE available, but, the state only allows a limited amount of that to count.  For the rest, the CE must be "interactive" - the student must be able to ask questions or otherwise interact with the speakers.  Normally, this isn't a problem.  She just goes to a conference once a year to pick up her CE...

The conference  she'd normally go to is in three weeks.  In _Florida_.  And the organizers can't even bring themselves to require masks!  While they had a virtual conference last year, not this year*.  My wife has had to hunt down one of the few conferences that does meet the requirements, but much of the material will be busywork that doesn't relate to her pratice.  




*For reasons - in general, the contracts with conference centers and hotels put the organizers on the hook not just for conference room rentals, but often for minimum amounts of concessions and booked hotel rooms.  There was an agreement to postpone last year, but they aren't allowed to postpone again.  The organizers are on the hook for $100,000+.  Veterinarians are cancelling anyway, and this may bankrupt the organization.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ditto most licensed professions.


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Texas update:
> 
> 1) In Dallas county, we are down to only 25 ICU beds.
> 
> 2) The TxSuppCt ruled against Gov. Abbot’s order banning masking mandates



And there's also this.









						Texas county judge issues dire warning about ICU beds for children
					

'Your child will wait for another child to die.' The Dallas County judge issued a dire warning as COVID cases and hospitalizations surge.




					abc7chicago.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Maxperson said:


> And there's also this.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Texas county judge issues dire warning about ICU beds for children
> 
> 
> 'Your child will wait for another child to die.' The Dallas County judge issued a dire warning as COVID cases and hospitalizations surge.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abc7chicago.com



Despite his edicts generally being in accord with CDC guidelines, he’s not universally beloved in Dallas county.


----------



## Hussar

Good grief.  @Umbran, seriously?  We have a national conference for teachers here in Japan in November and they just announced it will be 100% virtual.  They had hoped to be hybrid, but, with the way things are here, they're not taking the risk.  And Japan really hasn't done all that badly overall.  Yeah it isn't fantastic right now, but, sheesh, it's nothing like what you guys have had to deal with.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hmmmn doh. Only matter of time.









						As it happened: Covid-19 community case in Auckland
					

New Zealand is getting ready to enter its first national lockdown in more than a year tonight.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 They've found a case of community spread outside of qurantine. 

  Press conference at 6pm around 2 hours away. I'm guessing lockdown for Auckland level 2 for everyone else. Next Covid jab is next week.


----------



## Zardnaar

NZ into level 4 lockdown for 3 days nationwide. 7 days in Auckland and the Coromandel. 

 On a single case. 









						Covid-19: NZ moves to alert level 4 from midnight after positive man travels to Coromandel
					

All of New Zealand has moved into alert level 4 after a new community Covid-19 case emerged in Auckland.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				












						Covid-19 community case: Nationwide level 4 lockdown
					

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced an alert-level 4 lockdown starting at 11.59pm tonight for seven days in Auckland and Coromandel, and three days elsewhere.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Level 4 is essential services only basically fuel, medical, transport, food production and supermarkets. Travel between towns and cities verboten.

 All retail, restaurants, take aways and delivery are closed. 60% of the country is being closed on 6 hours notice. 

 Vaccinations paused for 48 hours.

 National lockdown round 2, round 4 for Auckland. 

 Australia used as an example of why it's straight to level 4.

Key messaging points. 

Be kind, considerate follow the rules and go hard and early vs Covid. Assume it's delta.




 NZ rallies around the flag locally by heading to the bottle store. They don't count as essential.



 Newbs.


----------



## Cadence

School started yesterday for K-12 in the area, and the local university starts Thursday.  Unlike NZ our current COVID mitigation strategy is that the largest city in the area and county containing it put in mask mandates that violate state law and so might not last long, planning to have classes/schools go virtual when they get to 5% positives, and depending on people to do the right thing.

The two counties here have about 700k combined population.  In 2020, Richland voted 68.4% Biden, Lexington voted 64.2% Trump.  Almost equal vaccination rates of around 57.5% for those age 12+.


----------



## Garthanos

Cadence said:


> The two counties here have about 700k combined population.  In 2020, Richland voted 68.4% Biden, Lexington voted 64.2% Trump.  Almost equal vaccination rates of around 57.5% for those age 12+.



my county is 75 percent for 16+


----------



## J.Quondam

My county  at 39% with at least one dose, of which 33% is fully vaxxed.


----------



## Garthanos

J.Quondam said:


> My county in Texas is at 39% with at least one dose, of which 33% is fully vaxxed.



I live in a fairly well educated cosmopolitan (for its size) capital city it has its perks.


----------



## Deset Gled

Our school board votes next Monday to determine if there will be a masking mandate in schools next year.  Last day to sign up for the cyber school option is Tuesday.


----------



## Not a Hobbit

..................


----------



## Cadence

Not a Hobbit said:


> So despite your attempts to make this political, it is pretty obvious that there are dumbasses wearing both red and blue.



I even pointed out both the red and blue counties in my locale had essentially the same % vaxxed...


----------



## Not a Hobbit

...........


----------



## J.Quondam

(deleted)


----------



## Garthanos

hmmmmm


----------



## cbwjm

Zardnaar said:


> NZ into level 4 lockdown for 3 days nationwide. 7 days in Auckland and the Coromandel.
> 
> On a single case.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19: NZ moves to alert level 4 from midnight after positive man travels to Coromandel
> 
> 
> All of New Zealand has moved into alert level 4 after a new community Covid-19 case emerged in Auckland.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19 community case: Nationwide level 4 lockdown
> 
> 
> Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced an alert-level 4 lockdown starting at 11.59pm tonight for seven days in Auckland and Coromandel, and three days elsewhere.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Level 4 is essential services only basically fuel, medical, transport, food production and supermarkets. Travel between towns and cities verboten.
> 
> All retail, restaurants, take aways and delivery are closed. 60% of the country is being closed on 6 hours notice.
> 
> Vaccinations paused for 48 hours.
> 
> National lockdown round 2, round 4 for Auckland.
> 
> Australia used as an example of why it's straight to level 4.
> 
> Key messaging points.
> 
> Be kind, considerate follow the rules and go hard and early vs Covid. Assume it's delta.
> 
> View attachment 142293
> 
> NZ rallies around the flag locally by heading to the bottle store. They don't count as essential.
> 
> View attachment 142294
> 
> Newbs.



Now up to 5 cases, all in Auckland. Spread from the hospital.

I had a "never again" amount of alcohol last night so I should be set for the lockdown.


----------



## Garthanos

J.Quondam said:


> My county in Texas is at 39% with at least one dose, of which 33% is fully vaxxed.



 Does that 33 percent mean 33 percent of the 39 (13 percent over all) or does it mean 6 percent didnt get their second dose? Guess it does not matter but a full one in three not following through seems a high number


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Garthanos said:


> Only 1/3 of those who got the vaccine actually followed through is not good even on those getting it that seems odd.




That could include people who received one dose recently and have not yet received their second dose. But yeah, it is my understanding that there has been some lack of follow through.


----------



## J.Quondam

Garthanos said:


> Does that 33 percent mean 33 percent of the 39 (13 percent over all) or does it mean 6 percent didnt get their second dose? Guess it does not matter but a full one in three not following through seems a high number



Ugh, sorry for the confusion. Bad phrasing on my part! It's that second one you said there. That is:
33% fully vaxxed
6% partially vaxxed
61% not vaxxed


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Now up to 5 cases, all in Auckland. Spread from the hospital.
> 
> I had a "never again" amount of alcohol last night so I should be set for the lockdown.




 Students packed out the bottle store down here with half an hour of the announcement. 

 Only drunk the one can last night. Might test a few more tomorrow just to double check they're not poisonous.


----------



## J.Quondam

Zardnaar said:


> Students packed out the bottle store down here with half an hour of the announcement.
> 
> Only drunk the one can last night. Might test a few more tomorrow just to double check they're not poisonous.



Wise move. Alcohol is antiseptic, probably kills covid.
Better safe than sorry!


*** Just to be 100% clear:  This is only a joke! Drinking alcohol is absolutely _*not*_ a medically-accepted way to protect oneself from Covid-19.


----------



## Cadence

J.Quondam said:


> Wise move. Alcohol is antiseptic, probably kills covid.
> Better safe than sorry!



Tastier than bleach that I've heard some recommend!!!


----------



## Cadence

So, our University had a mask mandate.

The Attorney General for the State said it was illegal.

The law in question was in a budget proviso and said: “A public institution of higher learning, including a technical college, may not use any funds appropriated or authorized pursuant to this act to require that its students have received the COVID-19 vaccination in order to be present at the institution’s facilities without being required to wear a facemask. This prohibition extends to the announcement or enforcement of any such policy.”

Today the State Supreme Court Unanimously said: “[T]he proviso clearly prevents state-supported institutions of higher education from using funds from the 2021-2022 appropriations to fund efforts requiring only unvaccinated individuals to wear face masks.”

Two days before class starts, we again have a mask requirement on campus.


----------



## Eltab

J.Quondam said:


> Wise move. Alcohol is antiseptic, probably kills covid.
> Better safe than sorry!



Proven true a while back: gargling with Listerine (which has diluted alcohol) meant you had no COVID in your mouth / breath afterwards.
I never did hear how fast the virii return, though.

And IMHO Listerine tastes better than beer (except original-flavor Listerine, which is tied with Pabst Blue Ribbon beer for "tastes worst").


----------



## Eltab

Cadence said:


> Tastier than bleach that I've heard some recommend!!!



Well, _anything_ is tastier than bleach ...


----------



## Cadence

Eltab said:


> Well, _anything_ is tastier than bleach ...



I haven't had bleach, but I have had gin.  Are you sure?


----------



## Eltab

Cadence said:


> I haven't had bleach, but I have had gin.  Are you sure?



I won't tell the whole story here (too much set-up) but a family member of mine was told to open the liquor storage "closet" at work one Monday morning and see what that reeking liquid coming under the door was ... Several cases of gin had fallen over and shattered.  Sometime over the weekend.  The closet was full of gin fumes.  They feel ill at the scent of gin, to this day.


----------



## Garthanos

J.Quondam said:


> Ugh, sorry for the confusion. Bad phrasing on my part! It's that second one you said there. That is:
> 33% fully vaxxed
> 6% partially vaxxed
> 61% not vaxxed



thanks clarity is important even the fancy charts don't always say what people think they do.


----------



## Zardnaar

J.Quondam said:


> Wise move. Alcohol is antiseptic, probably kills covid.
> Better safe than sorry!
> 
> 
> *** Just to be 100% clear:  This is only a joke! Drinking alcohol is absolutely _*not*_ a medically-accepted way to protect oneself from Covid-19.




 Gonna test that theory out. Third time this week I've bought a two week supply!! Russian beer what doesn't kill you....

 Up to 7 cases now it's delta and it's from Australia.









						Covid-19 recap: church, Auckland malls, cinema among nearly 70 locations of interest, 10 confirmed Delta cases
					

There are now nearly 70 locations of interest going back two weeks linked to 10 confirmed cases of the Delta variant, including large gatherings at a church, university, restaurants and bars.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Season 3 of the 1pm daily briefing has started.


----------



## J.Quondam

Zardnaar said:


> Up to 7 cases now it's delta and it's from Australia.



I re-read three times before I figured out you weren't talking about cases of beer.
Na zdorovye!


----------



## Mallus

Ahem… Pabst is a perfectly fine crisp inexpensive American lager and gin is a staple food used to make proper martinis.

I have spoken.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> Proven true a while back: gargling with Listerine (which has diluted alcohol) meant you had no COVID in your mouth / breath afterwards.
> I never did hear how fast the virii return, though.
> 
> And IMHO Listerine tastes better than beer (except original-flavor Listerine, which is tied with Pabst Blue Ribbon beer for "tastes worst").



As I remember, the article posted the alcohol based formula for Listerine was effective vs C19, as were a few other alcohol based oral antiseptics.  Don’t recall if they tested the non-alcohol formulas.

Personally, I’ve keen using the alcohol-based Listerine for decades now, and see no reason to change.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Cadence said:


> I haven't had bleach, but I have had gin.  Are you sure?




I mean, you need gin to make a good martini.

Snarf‘s foolproof perfectly dry martini recipe-

1. Take 3 shots of chilled gin. 
2.Pour into cocktail glass. 
3. Whisper the word “vermouth” over the glass while looking at a jar of olives.*
4 Drink before gin gets warm. 
5:  Repeat steps 1-4 until you forget what gin tastes like. 


*For a Gibson, look at a jar of cocktail onions.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Proven true a while back: gargling with Listerine (which has diluted alcohol) meant you had no COVID in your mouth / breath afterwards.




Yes... but your nose is still there, doing all this breathing and sneezing and stuff....

Unless you intend to _SNORT LISTERINE_ (or beer, or gin, etc.) maybe this is not the best anti-covid plan.


----------



## J.Quondam

Dannyalcatraz said:


> As I remember, the article posted the alcohol based formula for Listerine was effective vs C19, as were a few other alcohol based oral antiseptics.  Don’t recall if they tested the non-alcohol formulas.
> 
> Personally, I’ve keen using the alcohol-based Listerine for decades now, and see no reason to change.




I know pleasant breath doesn't hurt anything, but - just for the record - Listerine itself cautions against reading too much into the "mouthwash vs covid" research.






						Listerine Usage Guidelines and COVID-19 Outbreak | LISTERINE®
					

Read about the intended use of Listerine, and help your family, loved ones and community flatten the curve of COVID-19.




					www.listerine.com


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> I know pleasant breath doesn't hurt anything, but - just for the record - Listerine itself cautions against reading too much into the "mouthwash vs covid" research.




Because, and I cannot stress this enough, _SNORTING LISTERINE_.


----------



## J.Quondam

Umbran said:


> Because, and I cannot stress this enough, _SNORTING LISTERINE_.



Classy people use a neti pot.


----------



## Umbran

Not a Hobbit said:


> ..................



*Mod Note:*
Okay, folks, what was posted upthread was an error in judgement.  

Following such an error with further errors does not constitute a wise move on anyone's part.  

So, let's knock it off, and move forward already.


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> Classy people use a neti pot.




Once you have Listerine up your nose, I daresay your ability to do anything classy will be drastically hampered for some time.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Once you have Listerine up your nose, I daresay your ability to do anything classy will be drastically hampered for some time.



I, for one, do not desire burning blue boogers.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

J.Quondam said:


> I know pleasant breath doesn't hurt anything, but - just for the record - Listerine itself cautions against reading too much into the "mouthwash vs covid" research.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Listerine Usage Guidelines and COVID-19 Outbreak | LISTERINE®
> 
> 
> Read about the intended use of Listerine, and help your family, loved ones and community flatten the curve of COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.listerine.com



I suspect, from my personal use of it when gagling, is that it somewhat reduces pathogen loads by the inherent antiseptic properties of the alcohol and its active ingredients, but also that it thins the mucous in the throat to the point that some of what may be lurking simply gets flushed away when you spit.  

So, a chemical and a mechanical reason for it to be effective.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I, for one, do not desire burning blue boogers.




You get to pick your favorite color of burning sinus pain.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> You get to pick your favorite color of burning sinus pain.
> View attachment 142331



I picked blue because I‘m a Cool Mint dude 4evah.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The C19 ripple effect:








						Man shot 6 times waits more than a week for surgery after hospital is overwhelmed by covid
					

Joel Valdez isn't in the hospital for covid-19, but he's feeling its effect. For 10 days, Valdez has been in a hospital bed at Ben Taub Hospital in Houston awaiting surgery after he was shot six times outside a grocery store as an unlucky bystander to a domestic dispute.Subscribe to The Post...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> Because, and I cannot stress this enough, _SNORTING LISTERINE_.



That unfortunately, would not be the most bizarre anti-covid idea put forth in the last year or so.  I'm not even sure it makes third place.


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I, for one, do not desire burning blue boogers.



But think of the super damage attack you'd have when you blow!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Having had Listerine up my nose- involuntarily!- it is an experience I do NOT care to repeat!  Even for Truth, Justice, and the American Way!


----------



## Garthanos

Maxperson said:


> That unfortunately, would not be the most bizarre anti-covid idea put forth in the last year or so.  I'm not even sure it makes third place.



way down on the list I agree


----------



## Ryujin

A little while back there was an online trend of people dumping vodka in their eyes. The nasal cavity seems tame by comparison.


----------



## Zardnaar

Waste of vodka.


----------



## Zardnaar

Yay my city made the news. 


9:30 mark. 

 5 arrests Covidiots at anti lockdown protests. Not to bright some protested outside the cop shop. Oi oi oi whats going on 'ere with u miserable lot ? Date with her majesty's judges.

  Cops were somewhat lenient last time but they're invoking the health act this time around. Few protesters isn't 3000+ in a mob. 

 Mandatory masks in essential services from midnight.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> That unfortunately, would not be the most bizarre anti-covid idea put forth in the last year or so.  I'm not even sure it makes third place.




Oh, I know.  I just think there's a certain levity in repeating (in all caps - it is important) _SNORTING LISTERINE_ that such discussions sometimes sorely need.


----------



## Cadence

Simpson's paradox example for vaccine efficacy.  (Twitter thread has link to where the numbers are from and two typo corrections in the graphic that don't change the story).

Link to Prof. Jeffrey S. Morris on Twitter




Link to Prof. Jeffrey S. Morris on Twitter


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Oh, I know.  I just think there's a certain levity in repeating (in all caps - it is important) _SNORTING LISTERINE_ that such discussions sometimes sorely need.



For me, at least, it certainly conjures memories of a Pat Travers song:


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> Simpson's paradox example for vaccine efficacy.




Yeah, I ran into this independently  - it seems a good breakdown of the issue, and demonstrates how science reporting can go wrong.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Tx update:

1) Travis county is down to 3 available ICU beds.

2) The Paris ISD has- for now- circumvented Gov. Abbot’s mask mandate ban by redrafting their school dress codes to include masks.


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Tx update:
> 
> 1) Travis county is down to 3 available ICU beds.
> 
> 2) The Paris ISD has- for now- circumvented Gov. Abbot’s mask mandate ban by redrafting their school dress codes to include masks.



No shirt no shoes no masks ... no service


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> Yes... but your nose is still there, doing all this breathing and sneezing and stuff....
> 
> Unless you intend to _SNORT LISTERINE_ (or beer, or gin, etc.) maybe this is not the best anti-covid plan.



I wonder if an effective treatment (to at least make you safe to be around, for say the time it takes to get into a doctor's office) could be improvised by using Listerine in a vaporizer, to create the fumes that clear your nose.


----------



## Zardnaar

Went to supermarket in lockdown. First time worn a mask in a year. 100% mask use. Avoid the rush in first 36 hours.

 Half sloshed on emergency Baltika 7. Wife an essential worker but got a couple of days off using annual leave. Kinda enjoy lockdown my secret shame. 

Family time and binge watching TV with booze and chocolate. Got salted caramel chocolate, choc mint cookies and chocolate fingers biscuits.

 Idiots panic buying stockpile masks, toilet paper etc. Nice stockpile of that stuff from last year. 

 Life is good.


----------



## Hussar

Well, got my second shot today.  No pain at all this time.  It's been about 5 hours.  Seems good.

Noticed something really, really weird.  Watched the Lochdown Grand Tour episode last night.  They were touring Scotland (SOOOO want to go).  But, then it hit me how this was so different from Japanese TV.  No masks.  The presenters were never shown wearing masks.  On all Japanese TV shows that are in the Reality TV vein, all news shows, anything other than straight up dramas, EVERYONE wears a mask 100% of the time.  Every news presenter, every talking head, everyone. 

It was such a weird thing for me to watch TV like this, since I don't usually watch a lot of reality TV type stuff.  I mostly watch dramas, so, fine.  But, seeing presenters without face shields is just weird.  Then I noticed it on that other show I watch on Netflix here - Car Masters Rust to Riches - that show where they take old clunkers and turn them into really cool cars.  I thought I was watching something filmed a few years ago - not unusual here, since stuff can take a while to make it to Japanese Netflix.  But, then they started talking about how Covid was affecting their plan to take a car to auction.  And I realized, that the whole season, they were meeting with clients, working together, everything and not a mask in sight.

You guys are weird.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Well, got my second shot today.  No pain at all this time.  It's been about 5 hours.  Seems good.
> 
> Noticed something really, really weird.  Watched the Lochdown Grand Tour episode last night.  They were touring Scotland (SOOOO want to go).  But, then it hit me how this was so different from Japanese TV.  No masks.  The presenters were never shown wearing masks.  On all Japanese TV shows that are in the Reality TV vein, all news shows, anything other than straight up dramas, EVERYONE wears a mask 100% of the time.  Every news presenter, every talking head, everyone.
> 
> It was such a weird thing for me to watch TV like this, since I don't usually watch a lot of reality TV type stuff.  I mostly watch dramas, so, fine.  But, seeing presenters without face shields is just weird.  Then I noticed it on that other show I watch on Netflix here - Car Masters Rust to Riches - that show where they take old clunkers and turn them into really cool cars.  I thought I was watching something filmed a few years ago - not unusual here, since stuff can take a while to make it to Japanese Netflix.  But, then they started talking about how Covid was affecting their plan to take a car to auction.  And I realized, that the whole season, they were meeting with clients, working together, everything and not a mask in sight.
> 
> You guys are weird.




 UK no one gives a crap. 

 Weird for us in that regard as well. I suppose if your bubble is the production crew..... 

 Wasn't a great Top Gear/Grand Tour even. Think I liked the last one better Reunion.


----------



## Hussar

Yeah, you can kinda tell they're winding down.  Very much a last gasp.  I really don't think they'll be doing any more.  Man, James May looked OLD in that show.  Sheesh.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Yeah, you can kinda tell they're winding down.  Very much a last gasp.  I really don't think they'll be doing any more.  Man, James May looked OLD in that show.  Sheesh.




 Yeah very formulaic and meh. 

 TG after they left sucked then kinda got decent with Matte Blanc. 

 Clarksons Farm was good.


----------



## Zardnaar

@cbwjm season 3 reviews are coming in. 









						Reviews: 1pm Daily Update - IMDb
					

Reviews: 1pm Daily Update




					m.imdb.com


----------



## cbwjm

Ha


Zardnaar said:


> @cbwjm season 3 reviews are coming in.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Reviews: 1pm Daily Update - IMDb
> 
> 
> Reviews: 1pm Daily Update
> 
> 
> 
> 
> m.imdb.com



Haha, I love these!


----------



## Zardnaar

cbwjm said:


> Ha
> 
> Haha, I love these!




 Yeah the comments section is funny. "Set in a dystopian future...".


----------



## Cadence

Trying to resist the urge to swear at the small number of unmasked students in the hallways.  Successful so far.


----------



## Garthanos

Cadence said:


> Trying to resist the urge to swear at the small number of unmasked students in the hallways.  Successful so far.



I atleast have an isolated corner office when I do go into work, mostly working from home. Everyone here is confirmed vaccinated I believe so there is that.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Seriously, I have to wonder how anyone expects this to go well right now.  Even if Delta isn't harder for youngsters to resist proportionate to what earlier versions were, its more communicable overall, so its going to be hopping around amidst them like crazy, and we still don't have vaccines for those under 13 even if people were smart about getting it done.  Add in the fact vaccinated people have a shorter but apparently just as contagious spreading period when they get a breakthrough case, and how is this possibly going to go well?


----------



## Ryujin

One of my co-workers just decided to retire. The university recently announced that everyone, staff, faculty, and students, must declare their vaccination status in order to come on campus, or they must be tested every time. This guy refuses to get vaccinated. The university has been paying for his Uber/Lyft/taxi on any days that he has to go on-site (typically just once a week). With us going back to multiple times on-site a week for the Fall semester and the covering of parking/transportation costs being dropped, he decided that it's easier to just retire. We've also got another guy who is going to retire in a couple of months, but hasn't told management yet. They both do the same job and there's no one else in our group who does, so things will soon be falling apart.


----------



## Garthanos

Thomas Shey said:


> Seriously, I have to wonder how anyone expects this to go well right now.  Even if Delta isn't harder for youngsters to resist proportionate to what earlier versions were, its more communicable overall, so its going to be hopping around amidst them like crazy, a*nd we still don't have vaccines for those under 13 *even if people were smart about getting it done.  Add in the fact vaccinated people have a shorter but apparently just as contagious spreading period when they get a breakthrough case, and how is this possibly going to go well?



this right there....


----------



## Thomas Shey

Garthanos said:


> this right there....




Yeah.  Back before Delta, this might have landed in acceptable risk, but now?  I just can't see it.

About the only hope we really have in this situation is the signs in some places that have already had it elsewhere that Delta burns hot but fast, but there's a price to pay for that and I wonder how many people are _really_ willing that we pay it?


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> and we still don't have vaccines for those under 13




Just because accuracy of information matters - it isn't like they are developing entire new vaccines for this age group.  They have to run trials for safety and efficacy and dosage for the vaccines we already have.









						A Shot Against COVID For Kids Under 12 — Your Questions Answered
					

A COVID-19 vaccine for children younger than 12 is not yet available, but research is well underway and the first shot for some kids in this age group is expected in the fall, doctors say.




					www.npr.org
				




Meanwhile, on the other edge of the spectrum from DeSantis and Abbott, there's Washington State - Teachers need to be fully vaccinated by October 18th, or may lose their jobs.









						Teachers In Washington State Must Get Fully Vaccinated — Or They Could Be Fired
					

The mandate, effective Oct. 18, applies to all K-12 teachers and staff in the state. The news comes as states around the country grapple with rising cases and the return of in-person schooling.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Just because accuracy of information matters - it isn't like they are developing entire new vaccines for this age group.  They have to run trials for safety and efficacy and dosage for the vaccines we already have.




Yeah, that's fair; I should have said "We still don't have authorization to use any of the vaccines for people under 13."


----------



## Garthanos

Accuracy is always important... technically correct is the only correct


----------



## Zardnaar

Sister in law got her first vaccine shot today. Formal Friday is a thing for some reason. She went along in an evening gown and tiara. Lockdown her favorite presenter was doing baking in a formal dress lol. 

 Second shot for me next Thursday.


----------



## Hussar

Thomas Shey said:


> Yeah, that's fair; I should have said "We still don't have authorization to use any of the vaccines for people under 13."



Well, and, let's be fair, the requirements and safety issues involved in vaccinating children are far, far more stringent than adults.  And rightfully so.  Sure, if that vaccine increases your risk of cancer in thirty years, well, for an adult, that's pretty acceptable.  Not so much for a 13 year old.  So, yeah, it's going to take time to develop childhood vaccines.

I wonder if any breakthroughs in vaccines are being made that will have broader applications?  Like a childhood flu vaccine that protects you like a Polio vaccine does.  I have no idea.  Just thinking out loud.


----------



## Hussar

BTW, just to mention since I said I got my second shot yesterday.  This one hurts a lot less.  My first one, I was pretty darn sore for about 24 hours.  This one, a bit of stiffness and that's about it.  Pretty happy to be honest.


----------



## Zardnaar

Bit stuck here in lockdown.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Bit stuck here in lockdown.
> View attachment 142439



What are the best Riesling and Gewurtz from down there?


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> What are the best Riesling and Gewurtz from down there?




 No idea I'm not a big wine drinker. I can drink the sweet bubbly Aussie stuff. 

 I'll ask the sister in law she loves the grape juice.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> No idea I'm not a big wine drinker. I can drink the sweet bubbly Aussie stuff.
> 
> I'll ask the sister in law she loves the grape juice.




I don't drink much wine either (we have some at Thanksgiving sometime, and then at Christmas).  Red's make me sneezy, but those two are usually pretty sweet whites.  For over here, Chateau St. Michelle has a good one of each, and Fetzer makes a good Gewurtz.  That's about the extent of my wine knowledge?


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> I don't drink much wine either (we have some at Thanksgiving sometime, and then at Christmas).  Red's make me sneezy, but those two are usually pretty sweet whites.  For over here, Chateau St. Michelle has a good one of each, and Fetzer makes a good Gewurtz.  That's about the extent of my wine knowledge?




 More than mine. 

She doesn't drink Gewurtz saind a company called Mt Difficulty makes a great Riesling. 

 Think we're famous for Sauvignon Blanc and Aussie wines are popular for some other types.

Hmn near where I was born. Basically "Rohan". 









						Mt Difficulty Cellar Door and Winery | Activity in Central Otago, New Zealand
					

Mt Difficulty Wines is located in Bannockburn, well within an hour's drive of both Queenstown and Wanaka. The Cellar Door is known as much for its dramatic views of rugged rock and thyme landscapes as it is for its stylish wine.




					www.newzealand.com


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> I wonder if any breakthroughs in vaccines are being made that will have broader applications?  Like a childhood flu vaccine that protects you like a Polio vaccine does.  I have no idea.  Just thinking out loud.




Well, in general, the mRNA technology will allow us to create vaccines for some other diseases much more quickly than before.


----------



## Zardnaar

Lockdown lvl4. Everything shuts. Under 2 minute clip.


1.5 million people not doung much in our biggest city.


----------



## Rabulias

Zardnaar said:


> Lockdown lvl4. Everything shuts. Under 2 minute clip.
> 
> 
> 1.5 million people not doungmuch in our biggest city.



Actually they _are _doing something, something very important: putting the hard stop to Covid spread.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Well, in general, the mRNA technology will allow us to create vaccines for some other diseases much more quickly than before.



Aaaand, from what I’ve read, it may also generate vaccines for diseases that have so far proven to be elusive to researchers’ best efforts.


----------



## Hussar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Aaaand, from what I’ve read, it may also generate vaccines for diseases that have so far proven to be elusive to researchers’ best efforts.



One could hope that something of long lasting benefit comes out of this.


----------



## Cadence

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Aaaand, from what I’ve read, it may also generate vaccines for diseases that have so far proven to be elusive to researchers’ best efforts.



One of the talks is using the mRNA technology for cancer vaccines.  First patient dosed in BioNTech Phase II trial of mRNA cancer vaccine


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Things are getting ugly in The South.
Doctors in North Texas considered taking COVID-19 patients’ vaccination status into account when determining who gets ICU beds








						Over 20,000 Mississippi students under quarantine after 1st week of school
					

More than 20,000 students across Mississippi are in quarantine after the first week of in-person classes.  Mississippi, which has the lowest vaccination rate among all states -- about 34%, according to state data -- is reeling from rising COVID-19 cases and the highly transmissible delta...




					www.yahoo.com
				





			https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/08/20/dan-patrick-covid-african-americans/


----------



## Janx

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Things are getting ugly in The South.
> Doctors in North Texas considered taking COVID-19 patients’ vaccination status into account when determining who gets ICU beds
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Over 20,000 Mississippi students under quarantine after 1st week of school
> 
> 
> More than 20,000 students across Mississippi are in quarantine after the first week of in-person classes.  Mississippi, which has the lowest vaccination rate among all states -- about 34%, according to state data -- is reeling from rising COVID-19 cases and the highly transmissible delta...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/08/20/dan-patrick-covid-african-americans/



simple triage ethics under limited resources.  Vax'd folks have better chances. Unvaxxed folks are high risk terrorists taking up resources from stage 4 cancer patients.

They made their bed. They can die in it. At home.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Things are getting ugly in The South.




Sometimes I am so happy about where I live.  It isn't perfect but... the governor has put in a vaccination mandate for all State workers - the legislature is working on the extension of the program that will allow those workers do get vaccinated by effectively giving them some extra paid sick days to get shots.

The Mayor of Boston has instituted a mask mandate for all indoor public places in the city starting next week, iirc.

A mask mandate for all K-12 students is going to be voted on Tuesday, expected to pass, and will run until October 1, with considering extensions at that point.



Janx said:


> They made their bed. They can die in it. At home.




And, if they were independent, that'd be fine.  But those deaths are going to have knock-on effects throughout the nation.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Janx said:


> simple triage ethics under limited resources.  Vax'd folks have better chances. Unvaxxed folks are high risk terrorists taking up resources from stage 4 cancer patients.
> 
> They made their bed. They can die in it. At home.



Oh, I understand triage & medical ethics.  This situation is complicated.  In neither do you get the luxury of making value judgments over the morality of your patients into account.  So a “terrorist” and a “saint” should be evaluated on the nature of their respective afflictions, not on who they are.

It’s _further_ complicated by the optics of this discussion in the context of the politicized “us vs them” response to the pandemic here in TX and elsewhere.  This could get people *shot*.  As in, with bullets.


----------



## Garthanos

Vaccine hesitant coworker caught covid.


----------



## J.Quondam

Half the admins at my brother's kids' school have developed covid. Small  town, pretty much no one wears mask. Because of course they won't. At another school in the vicinity, a kid showed up at school knowing he had covid (not sure if the parents knew or not), and now a dozen students are in quarantine.
These "freedumb" folks who risk getting other people's kids sick are _*absolutely vile*_. Sorry, not sorry. They are.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

J.Quondam said:


> Half the admins at my brother's kids' school have developed covid. Small Texas town, pretty much no one wears mask. Because of course they won't. At another school in the vicinity, a kid showed up at school knowing he had covid (not sure if the parents knew or not), and now a dozen students are in quarantine.
> These "freedumb" folks who risk getting other people's kids sick are _*absolutely vile*_. Sorry, not sorry. They are.




My report from family that called today is this:

Local high school this week: 
79 positive kids.
4 positive teachers.
6 positive staff.

...and the high school has the lowest rates in the district. The nearby middle school has 13 positive teachers and they aren't reporting the kids this week.


----------



## J.Quondam

It's infuriating.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

J.Quondam said:


> It's infuriating.




It's infuriating because it doesn't have to be this way. 

I can't even imagine how infuriating it is to the people in other countries who are looking at us going through this and saying, "Wow, it must be nice to have so much vaccine around that you guys are complaining about all the people that just won't get vaccinated."


----------



## Garthanos

Snarf Zagyg said:


> ...and the high school has the lowest rates in the district. The nearby middle school has 13 positive teachers and they aren't reporting the kids this week.



High schoolers here I expect have highish vaccination rates AND are required to wear masks on top of that.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Garthanos said:


> High schoolers here I expect have highish vaccination rates AND are required to wear masks on top of that.




I mean .... yeah. That's how it _should be._


----------



## Garthanos

Here is some form our school system "
The number of positive COVID-19 cases at LPS Aug. 12-19 was four. This includes students and staff testing positive who have been in LPS buildings anytime 48 hours prior to the time of symptoms being exhibited or the positive test was taken. These are cases where LPS has done investigation of potential exposure to others and contact tracing in the school district setting. This also includes all positions and district locations, which refers to school buildings and non-school locations such as Operations, Transportation, District Office and Distribution.

The current number of LPS staff directed to be in self-isolation or in quarantine as of Wednesday, Aug. 19 at 4 p.m. is 35. The number includes staff who are self-isolating due to exhibiting symptoms or have been notified of a high-risk contact with COVID-19, and those who have tested positive for COVID-19 and have been directed to quarantine. This also includes all positions and district locations, which refers to school building and non-school locations such as Operations, Transportation, District Office and Distribution.


----------



## Cadence

One of our local schools in the first week of class had an (apparently mandatory) assembly in the gym...









						School District Five says Chapin High School assembly violated district COVID guidelines
					

The district is on Level Orange which limits capacities in arenas, gyms, and auditoriums.




					www.wistv.com
				




Will report the infection rates for that school when they're updated for the next few weeks (whether they go up or not).


----------



## Cadence

Meanwhile, one state over, a friend's relative has it.  Still breathing, but fever and unable to keep food down for several days.  Local hospital is apparently almost a half day wait in the waiting room unless there is trouble breathing.


----------



## Zardnaar

Snarf Zagyg said:


> It's infuriating because it doesn't have to be this way.
> 
> I can't even imagine how infuriating it is to the people in other countries who are looking at us going through this and saying, "Wow, it must be nice to have so much vaccine around that you guys are complaining about all the people that just won't get vaccinated."




 Yep our mass vaccination started end of July. 

 First roll up roll out place locally I just found out about an hour ago. 

 Mask mandate came down from high 24 hours after delta arrived.


----------



## Garthanos

They arent reporting what classes / ages or schools the cases are in just the over all picture.


----------



## Garthanos

Snarf Zagyg said:


> I mean .... yeah. That's how it _should be._



Nebraska at least in the bigger cities have a rather practical response I think to a lot of things.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Yep our mass vaccination started end of July.
> 
> First roll up roll out place locally I just found out about an hour ago.
> 
> Mask mandate came down from high 24 hours after delta arrived.



Meanwhile in some states the school districts are fighting to require masks...





and in others they're fighting against requiring them...


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Meanwhile in some states the school districts are fighting to require masks...
> 
> View attachment 142472
> and in others they're fighting against requiring them...
> 
> View attachment 142473




Yeah every three years we essentially elect a dictator with no constitutional restraints. The few ones can be rewritten with 51% support.

 Cultural mores are the only thing really restraining them.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Zardnaar said:


> Yeah every three years we essentially elect a dictator with no constitutional restraints. The few ones can be rewritten with 51% support.
> 
> Cultural mores are the only thing really restraining them.



That is really not true. New Zealand is a Parliamentary democracy, which means the PM doesn’t actually have much power - Parliament does. Which is why the latest lockdown didn’t happen when the PM wanted it to - but instead it was imposed after Cabinet sat around the table and reached agreement that this was the right thing to do.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mikeythorn said:


> That is really not true. New Zealand is a Parliamentary democracy, which means the PM doesn’t actually have much power - Parliament does. Which is why the latest lockdown didn’t happen when the PM wanted it to - but instead it was imposed after Cabinet sat around the table and reached agreement that this was the right thing to do.




 Our PMs have a lot of power domestically espicially if they have the support of their party. 

Current one  is the most powerful since 1938. We had one declear war on Germany and parliament backed them after the fact. 

 If your party has a majority and supports the PM they can more or less do whatever the hell they want. Rewrite the law check, rewrite constitutional law check, become a republic check, fire the governor general check declear  state of emergency check, dissolve parliament check, remake the civil service check etc. 

 Right now current PM has a deathgrip on her party they're more or less completely dependent on her personal popularity. They have an absolute majority in a proportional system.

She personally appointment the cabinet which hasn't been done since 1938. The courts tend to look to parliament to clarify what they meant with the law.

 I'm not worried but see the problem theoretically? The police arrested anti lockdown protesters for violating the health act whatever that is.


----------



## Ryujin

If they're going to a Hollywood guy then they could choose worse. If it was Ronald D Moore everyone would secretly be a Dalek.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Zardnaar said:


> Our PMs have a lot of power domestically espicially if they have the support of their party.
> 
> Current one  is the most powerful since 1938. We had one abitrarily declear war on Germany and parliament backed them after the fact.
> 
> If your party has a majority and supports the PM they can more or less do whatever the hell they want. Rewrite the law check, rewrite constitutional law check, become a republic check, fire the governor general check declear  state of emergency check, dissolve parliament check, remake the civil service check etc.
> 
> Right now current PM has a deathgrip on her party they're more or less completely dependent in her personal popularity.
> 
> She personally appointment the cabinet which hasn't been done since 1938. The courts tend to look to parliament to clarify what they meant with the law.



But she has that “death grip” because she is popular and making popular decisions. If her polling were to drop, then the party can dump her and she could do nothing about it. Her “power” is a phantom thing, that really is nothing more than Cabinet and the party choosing to stand behind her today. That certainly doesn’t make her a dictator.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mikeythorn said:


> But she has that “death grip” because she is popular and making popular decisions. If her polling were to drop, then the party can dump her and she could do nothing about it. Her “power” is a phantom thing, that really is nothing more than Cabinet and the party choosing to stand behind her today. That certainly doesn’t make her a dictator.




 No but in practice she can do whatever vshe wants until election time as long as her party supports her
 There's no constitution, supreme court, Senate etc to gum up the works. I trust her but a neferious populist could easily abuse the system.

 The governor general can theoretically fire he as well but she can appoint them as well and fire them as well.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well the good news. 

56000 vaccine doses done in aday. 
46000 Covid tests. 

 Waiting for the bad news. 21 new cases up from 11 previous day.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Zardnaar said:


> No but in practice she can do whatever vshe wants until election time as long as her party supports her
> There's no constitution, supreme court, Senate etc to gum up the works. I trust her but a neferious populist could easily abuse the system.
> 
> The governor general can theoretically fire he as well but she can appoint them as well and fire them as well.



But that is all not true, and not at all how Parliament works. I am currently writing a Cabinet paper at work. That will go to the relevant Minister who is likely to ask questions and for different options to be considered. When the Minister agrees, he/she will take it to Cabinet. Cabinet Ministers will debate it, and may ask an official (probably my boss) to answer questions. If Cabinet is unanimous in agreement, they will ask us to write a law to bring the recommendations into effect. The proposed law will have to go back to Cabinet for approval and then gets its first reading and vote in the House. That law will then be refined by a Select Committee that includes representatives from all the major parties, who may tweak it and who will almost certainly consult the general public, before sending it back to the House for further debate before it becomes the law of the land.

The only steps that are easier with a majority government are the decisions at Cabinet (no NZ First to torpedo everything) and the debates and votes in the House. The PM herself will have next to zero involvement in the entire process. Because that it how our system of government is intended to work - by means of consensus within Cabinet, the House and Select Committee, rather than at the whim of any one person.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mikeythorn said:


> But that is all not true, and not at all how Parliament works. I am currently writing a Cabinet paper at work. That will go to the relevant Minister who is likely to ask questions and for different options to be considered. When the Minister agrees, he/she will take it to Cabinet. Cabinet Ministers will debate it, and may ask an official (probably my boss) to answer questions. If Cabinet is unanimous in agreement, they will ask us to write a law to bring the recommendations into effect. The proposed law will have to go back to Cabinet for approval and then gets its first reading and vote in the House. That law will then be refined by a Select Committee that includes representatives from all the major parties, who may tweak it and who will almost certainly consult the general public, before sending it back to the House for further debate before it becomes the law of the land.
> 
> The only steps that are easier with a majority government are the decisions at Cabinet (no NZ First to torpedo everything) and the debates and votes in the House. The PM herself will have next to zero involvement in the entire process. Because that it how our system of government is intended to work - by means of consensus within Cabinet, the House and Select Committee, rather than at the whim of any one person.




 Yep but if that party and PM were in cahoots and didn't care what anyone thought they can essentially do whatever's legal yes? 

 And they can write the laws to make something legal yes? 

 I'm guessing you don't remember Muldoon or what the wartime prime ministers got away with.

 They're using the health act which was written in 1956.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Zardnaar said:


> Yep but if that party and PM were in cahoots and didn't care what anyone thought they can essentially do whatever's legal yes?
> 
> And they can write the laws to make something legal yes?



No. Not if those laws might result in a breach of the Bill of Rights, or the requirements of an international treaty to which we  are a signee, or if there were even a couple of backbench MPs in the party who chose to vote against.

Sorry for the derail, but it seriously annoys me when people claim that our system of government is in any way dictatorial - or even that the Prime Minister holds any sort of presidential-style powers. It is simply not true.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mikeythorn said:


> No. Not if those laws might result in a breach of the Bill of Rights, or the requirements of an international treaty to which we  are a signee, or if there were even a couple of backbench MPs in the party who chose to vote against.
> 
> Sorry for the derail, but it seriously annoys me when people claim that our system of government is in any way dictatorial - or even that the Prime Minister holds any sort of presidential-style powers. It is simply not true.




Domestically she has more power than a president. 






						Health Act 1956 No 65 (as at 13 December 2021), Public Act – New Zealand Legislation
					






					www.legislation.govt.nz
				




 That's just the emergency powers the DG of Health has. 

 There's been arrests for violating the health act. Which violates the Bill of Rights which can get suspended if they invoke emergency powers. 

It doesn't really matter they can rewrite the bill of rights act anyway with a simple parliamentary majority. 

 The context of the conversation was in the USA they're arguing about mask mandates. Our one came down from high in around 24 hours. 

 In the USA constitution can be changed with 75% of the states support. 

 Our human rights act and bill of rights can easily be suspended via the health act or other legislation. 

 And even if they couldn't they can be rewritten by the government of the day if they have the numbers. 

 Which she has. 

 Basically a lit of the assumptions we take for granted can easily be revoked by parliament with a simple majority. 

 Of course they don't but that comes down to societies mores and norms not law.

 In  USA terms imagine if any sitting President could rewrite the constitution with a simple bill in the house and the Senate and supreme court doesn't matter. 

 Well that's what we have here.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Again, none of that is true. Yes, the Health Act delegates a lot of power - _to a Medical Officer of Health in very limited circumstances_. The PM has no special powers. And, speaking as somebody who has actually been an officer given powers under the Health Act, while those powers are considerable - there are also lots of limits on them. Note the opening clause ”…if authorised by the Minister”. A MOH can have those powers whipped away in the instant by the Minister, not to mention that a MOH is an employee of a District Health Board - and can be sacked or suspended from the role if they abuse their powers.

And as for the Bill of Rights, while certain rights can be suspended in extreme circumstances (eg, a pandemic), that has to be approved by the Ministry of Justice’s BORA committee (note, that means neutral officials appointed by the State Services Commission, not politicians).


----------



## Zardnaar

Mikeythorn said:


> Again, none of that is true. Yes, the Health Act delegates a lot of power - _to a Medical Officer of Health in very limited circumstances_. The PM has no special powers. And, speaking as somebody who has actually been an officer given powers under the Health Act, while those powers are considerable - there are also lots of limits on them. Note the opening clause ”…if authorised by the Minister”. A MOH can have those powers whipped away in the instant by the Minister, not to mention that a MOH is an employee of a District Health Board - and can be sacked or suspended from the role if they abuse their powers.
> 
> And as for the Bill of Rights, while certain rights can be suspended in extreme circumstances (eg, a pandemic), that has to be approved by the Ministry of Justice’s BORA committee (note, that means neutral officials appointed by the State Services Commission, not politicians).




 Yep but a lot of that is based on trust. 

 What if a PM appointed a compliant cabinet and abused the emergency powers. 

 They could ram through anything they liked. What if they rewrote the emergency powers or the bill of rights act?

 There's nothing stopping them if they have a compliant parliament. 

 Public protest hasn't mattered since 1981. 

 NZ always scores high in things like corruption and trust in government. That's cultural though not from a legal PoV. Parliament can pass any law they like if they have the numbers or rewrite/repeal any law they don't like. 

 Look at the protests already about Jacinda abusing her powers. I'm not worried about her or even a theoretical abuse of power but by USA terms we elect a dictator. 

 USA has emergency powers but they can and will be challenged in the supreme court. 

 There's no real constitutional restraints on parliament here and the courts and police tend to look to parliament on clarification on intent and the spirit of the law is often used vs the letter.

 It would be very easy from a legal PoV to turn NZ into an outright authortarian state. The only checks and balances on parliament is parliament itself.


----------



## Mikeythorn

I don’t know what you want me to say here. The goalposts keep moving. You said we elect a dictator every 3 years in New Zealand. I pointed out that this is not in any way true. Now you are talking about the powers held by a majority government (very rare under an MMP voting system) passing any law they want (they can’t, they can only propose laws - the politically neutral Governor-General can refuse to enact them) and the lack of a written constitution (which does have cons, it means change can happen quickly - but it also has even more significant benefits, it means change can happen quickly).  

We could carry on this debate, but there doesn’t seem to be much point - and it is probably a huge thread jack anyway. So I am tapping out.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mikeythorn said:


> I don’t know what you want me to say here. The goalposts keep moving. You said we elect a dictator every 3 years in New Zealand. I pointed out that this is not in any way true. Now you are talking about the powers held by a majority government (very rare under an MMP voting system) passing any law they want (they can’t, they can only propose laws - the politically neutral Governor-General can refuse to enact them) and the lack of a written constitution (which does have cons, it means change can happen quickly - but it also has even more significant benefits, it means change can happen quickly).
> 
> We could carry on this debate, but there doesn’t seem to be much point - and it is probably a huge thread jack anyway. So I am tapping out.




 No I'm pointing out it's not hard to do whatever they like. 

 Prime minister appoints the governor general and can fire the GG.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Just. No.

Let‘s get back to the pandemic. Cases here are still on the rise, and Delta is going to be a real test for the ability of lockdowns and masking to _eliminate_ Covid again. I am still feeling optimistic, but some of the spread we have already seen here (people standing in a hallway when a door to a room containing an infected person was open for 3-5 seconds) does leave me with some doubt. I will feel much happier once I get my first shot on Thursday.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Our PMs have a lot of power domestically espicially if they have the support of their party.
> 
> Current one  is the most powerful since 1938. We had one declear war on Germany and parliament backed them after the fact.
> 
> If your party has a majority and supports the PM they can more or less do whatever the hell they want. Rewrite the law check, rewrite constitutional law check, become a republic check, fire the governor general check declear  state of emergency check, dissolve parliament check, remake the civil service check etc.
> 
> Right now current PM has a deathgrip on her party they're more or less completely dependent on her personal popularity. They have an absolute majority in a proportional system.
> 
> She personally appointment the cabinet which hasn't been done since 1938. The courts tend to look to parliament to clarify what they meant with the law.
> 
> I'm not worried but see the problem theoretically? The police arrested anti lockdown protesters for violating the health act whatever that is.



Do you not have provinces?  Our Constitution cannot be ammended without all the premiers agreeing.  As in, you have to get all 10 premiers (Canada has 10 provinces) to sign of on any Contitutional change.  And it must be unanimous.  And, frankly, the PM has zero power to force the issue with any provinces.  Last time around, it was PEI, a province with about 100000 people who stopped Constitutional changes for the entire country.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Do you not have provinces?  Our Constitution cannot be ammended without all the premiers agreeing.  As in, you have to get all 10 premiers (Canada has 10 provinces) to sign of on any Contitutional change.  And it must be unanimous.  And, frankly, the PM has zero power to force the issue with any provinces.  Last time around, it was PEI, a province with about 100000 people who stopped Constitutional changes for the entire country.




 Provinces yes but with no power in the parliament process beyond the local representative.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mikeythorn said:


> Just. No.
> 
> Let‘s get back to the pandemic. Cases here are still on the rise, and Delta is going to be a real test for the ability of lockdowns and masking to _eliminate_ Covid again. I am still feeling optimistic, but some of the spread we have already seen here (people standing in a hallway when a door to a room containing an infected person was open for 3-5 seconds) does leave me with some doubt. I will feel much happier once I get my first shot on Thursday.




 Bad faith prime minister fires the governor general or wins an election promising NZexit and declears the country a republic. Or just withholds consent or nominates a stooge. In practice the queen just selects whoever gets nominated.

  A governor general has never exercised their power either unlike Australia. A determined PM could easily sideline the GG or campaign on republicanism. 

  I don't see it happening anytime soon main point is domestically our PM has a lot more power than US president or Australian or Canadian PM or the UK PM. She doesn't have to deal with a senate, constitution, supreme court, governor's, premiers, house of Lords or the queen.


----------



## Zardnaar

Anti lockdown protesters on Sydney Australia clashing with riot police. 


 8 weeks of lockdown extended another 4 weeks. They've half assed it though and haven't flattened the curve with cases doubling every few weeks. 

  Local premier not good.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Bad faith prime minister...




*Mod Note:*
Hey, dude.  The guy has requested a change of topic. Enough.  Move on.


----------



## Cadence

Planning my son's second virtual birthday party in a row.  Hopefully in the spring we'll be comfortable doing a "halfy birthday party" in person.


----------



## Zardnaar

Laughed at for going into lockdown with 1 case found. 

 One became 11 then another 11, then 21 etc. 35 new cases today total 100+.









						Covid-19 update: 35 new community cases ahead of alert level announcement
					

There are 35 new community cases of Covid-19 ahead of the government's alert level announcement this afternoon.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Good ol delta.









						Exclusive poll: Resounding popular support for decision to take NZ into strict lockdown
					

The verdict on: the government response; the National Party response; and the decision to go into level four lockdown.



					thespinoff.co.nz
				




 Popular response though. We've been told to expect increasing cases for the next week or so then hopefully flatten the curve. 

  Locally might reopen in afew days to some extent.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cops being serious about lockdown.



 $1000 fine rough.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Just reading a report from southeast of me: Houston is effectively out of beds, and hospitals are sending patients to Louisiana and Utah.


----------



## Zardnaar

Waiting for our favorite lockdown show to start in 38 minutes. The 1pm daily briefing. 

 They've made a bingo card drinking game based on what the PM says.


----------



## billd91

To Utah from Houston? That's a heck of a transfer.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

billd91 said:


> To Utah from Houston? That's a heck of a transfer.



We’re running out of beds all over Texas.

I was reading someone posting about their kid (in another state) passed out the car, unable to go into the hospital for his chemotherapy.  One of the responses to that post was someone from here in the Dallas  area claiming they had to set their own kid’s broken arm and jerry rig a temporary cast for a week because they were denied entry into an overrun facility.

Hearsay?  Yeah.  Internet fable?  Possibly.   But I have enough friends and family in the D/FW medical community that are telling me similarly grim tales that I find it believable.

You may also recall my tale about our friends in Oklahoma.  The daughter was sent home a couple days ago with clots in her lungs because the physicians on staff at the reservation hospital told her she’d be safer THERE than in their facility.  That’s _insane_…but that’s what’s happening.

And now we’re seeing people deny transfusions if the blood came from vaccinated donors.  *EDIT*: AND the ivermectin idiocy.

I try not to wish evil upon others, but my faith and morals are being sorely tested.  So much of this death & suffering is completely unnecessary…


----------



## Zardnaar

X rated anti Covid messaging. 









						‘Spread your legs’: New Zealand makes hay with Covid minister’s gaffe
					

Chris Hipkins delivered some light relief from Covid news with an x-rated health advice slip-up




					www.theguardian.com
				




 Minister said spread your legs instead of stretch your legs. 

 Kinda funny when the PM is saying go hard go early.


----------



## Hussar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ivermectin idiocy



I made the mistake of googling this.  Hadn't heard this particular bit of idiocy.  I don't even know where to start.  

Here, I have a broken wrist, rub some aloe vera on it and it will be all better.  WTF?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

From what I understand, ivermectin entered the arena because of two things:

1) an MD working in Southeast Asia started using the _*human*_ formulation of ivermectin to kill off parasites in his patients to strengthen their immune responses to other pathogens, including C19. Because this was a moderate success (according to him and a few others)…

2) someone else claimed to do a study on using ivermectin (a dewormer/anti-parasitic) to combat C19 (a virus) itself.  The study was published, but was immediately attacked by readers who noted all kinds of anomalies (test subject ages, test subject death dates, etc.) that led to the paper being withdrawn.

Of course, through the lens of the conspiracy theorists and others suspicious of the vaccines, this withdrawal was seen as “censorship“ in the service of “Big Pharma‘s” interests, and some have started taking the _*veterinary*_ formulation of the drug .


----------



## CapnZapp

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We’re running out of beds all over Texas.
> 
> I was reading someone posting about their kid (in another state) passed out the car, unable to go into the hospital for his chemotherapy. One of the responses to that post was someone from here in the Dallas area claiming they had to set their own kid’s broken arm and jerry rig a temporary cast for a week because they were denied entry into an overrun facility.
> 
> Hearsay? Yeah. Internet fable? Possibly. But I have enough friends and family in the D/FW medical community that are telling me similarly grim tales that I find it believable.
> 
> You may also recall my tale about our friends in Oklahoma. The daughter was sent home a couple days ago with clots in her lungs because the physicians on staff at the reservation hospital told her she’d be safer THERE than in their facility. That’s _insane_…but that’s what’s happening.
> 
> And now we’re seeing people deny transfusions if the blood came from vaccinated donors. *EDIT*: AND the ivermectin idiocy.
> 
> I try not to wish evil upon others, but my faith and morals are being sorely tested. So much of this death & suffering is completely unnecessary…



This happened in Italy (and many other places, repeatedly) right at the start of the pandemic.

Some politicians don't lift their gaze one inch.


----------



## Cadence

Got my son signed up for COVID Vax later this week when he turns 12.  I wonder if there will be a mini-rush of those who were waiting for it to have official FDA approval. 

The VAMS system over here that some places need you to register at requires a different e-mail for each registrant.  I'm picturing how obnoxious this will be when families with several kids need to create multiple new e-mail addresses just to sign them up.  Luckily a lot of places are just walk-in or use a different system.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Of course, through the lens of the conspiracy theorists and others suspicious of the vaccines, this withdrawal was seen as “censorship“ in the service of “Big Pharma‘s” interests, and some have started taking the _*veterinary*_ formulation of the drug .




And generating poison control calls which end up... you guessed it, at the hospitals.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

So I see something like this ...









						Dying in the Name of Vaccine Freedom
					

You might want to take a deep breath or do a couple of laps around the house before watching this video about a community in the




					kottke.org
				




And I ask myself, how does this even happen?

And then I see something like this ...









						Study: Evolution now accepted by majority of Americans
					

The level of public acceptance of evolution in the United States is now solidly above the halfway mark, according to a new study based on a series of national public opinion surveys conducted over the last 35 years.  "From 1985 to 2010, there was a statistical dead heat between acceptance and reje



					news.umich.edu
				




And I'm like ... yep, checks out.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> So I see something like this ...




Powerful stuff, that.

The _infuriating_ thing is that these people are all about personal freedom, but...
1) They are really only about their own freedom - if someone else makes a personal choice, they will not be kind about it.
2) They do not acknowledge that freedoms come with attendant responsibilities.  

There may have been a time when Americans woudl coe together in times of crisis, and care for one another.  That time is not now.


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> There may have been a time when Americans woudl coe together in times of crisis, and care for one another.  That time is not now.



If only the coronavirus would, I don't know, bomb Pearl Harbor or something...


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Powerful stuff, that.
> 
> The _infuriating_ thing is that these people are all about personal freedom, but...
> 1) They are really only about their own freedom - if someone else makes a personal choice, they will not be kind about it.
> 2) They do not acknowledge that freedoms come with attendant responsibilities.
> 
> There may have been a time when Americans woudl coe together in times of crisis, and care for one another.  That time is not now.



Weren't you aware that their person freedom extends to telling _you_ what to do?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> There may have been a time when Americans woudl coe together in times of crisis, and care for one another.  That time is not now.



I mentioned waaaaaaay upthread that I had a glimmer of hope when Trump tried to cast himself as analogous to a wartime president in dealing with the pandemic, thinking he’s going to suggest it’s time for Americans to pull together,  You know, typical wartime presidential rhetoric.  He was *so* close.

Aaaand he did the opposite.

Anywho, that OpEd vid was depressing, but not surprising.  Bad understanding of science, bad theological arguments, bad understanding of rights vs duties- stuff I’m seeing in my personal circle of family and (former) friends.  It was all there.  As I listened,  I had all the counter arguments at my mental fingertips, knowing full well how ineffective they are.  My personal experiences with that were pretty much predicted by my training in mediation.  It’s nigh impossible to convince someone to change someone’s position when it has become virtually synonymous with their personal identity.  And that’s where we are.

There was an article I wish I could find now.  Another OpEd piece, this, written by someone who suggested that the way to handle stuff like this is to treat it like an evangelical opportunity.  Don’t use facts, work on emotions.  Etc.  The writer made a lot of good points.


----------



## Imaculata

You are not alone in your anger and frustration. Reddit has a topic called the HermanCainAward, for a list of articles of people dying from covid right after refusing vaccination (sort of like the Darwin awards, but for covid deniers and anti vaxers). And it might seem improper to make fun of people dying, until you realize how these people also cause the deaths of others and allow the epidemic to spread, and then a whole lot of sympathy goes out the window.

Like this one woman who attended an anti-vax rally, the day after her husband died from covid. You'd think such a tragedy would be a wake up call, and you'd be wrong.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s nigh impossible to convince someone to change someone’s position when it has become virtually synonymous with their personal identity.  And that’s where we are.




Precisely.



Dannyalcatraz said:


> There was an article I wish I could find now.  Another OpEd piece, this, written by someone who suggested that the way to handle stuff like this is to treat it like an evangelical opportunity.  Don’t use facts, work on emotions.  Etc.  The writer made a lot of good points.




Or, well, use the vernacular of the time.  Set aside some vaccine, rebrand it Hyrdroxiverzinc or soemthing, and say, "Friends!  Here's the stuff that They don't want you to know about!  Big Pharma and the FDA don't want to talk about it, but it will SPERCHARGE your immune system, and make covid fears a thing of the past...."

(Note intentional misspelling of "supercharge".  It adds folksy verisimilitude.)


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Weren't you aware that their person freedom extends to telling _you_ what to do?



I need an emoji that combines:


and


----------



## cmad1977

billd91 said:


> If only the coronavirus would, I don't know, bomb Pearl Harbor or something...




Yeah… 600,00 dead isn’t worth it.

Gotta destroy property.


----------



## CleverNickName

cmad1977 said:


> Yeah… 600,00 dead isn’t worth it.
> 
> Gotta destroy property.



As we've learned in Portland last year, property is far more important than people.  Apparently.


----------



## Umbran

cmad1977 said:


> Yeah… 600,00 dead isn’t worth it.
> 
> Gotta destroy property.




Actually, yes.  Some humans have a problem extending beyond mere proximal empathy.  Same reason they won't wear masks or get vaccinated.  In reality, those are measures to be kind to their fellow humans, and they just can't concieve needing to do things for people they don't know, especially if those people are Them, the outgroup.

_sigh_.  And we wonder what The Great Filter might be?


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Or, well, use the vernacular of the time.  Set aside some vaccine, rebrand it Hyrdroxiverzinc or soemthing, and say, "Friends!  Here's the stuff that They don't want you to know about!  Big Pharma and the FDA don't want to talk about it, but it will SPERCHARGE your immune system, and make covid fears a thing of the past...."
> 
> (Note intentional misspelling of "supercharge".  It adds folksy verisimilitude.)



Needs more "XTREME!" in the marketing.


----------



## Umbran

cmad1977 said:


> Yeah… 600,00 dead isn’t worth it.
> 
> Gotta destroy property.




Or maybe... cost taxpayer dollars?  It looks like hospitalization of unvaccinated folks cost the US over $2 billion in just June and July this year.









						Unvaccinated COVID-19 hospitalizations cost billions of dollars - Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker
					

COVID-19 vaccines have been free and broadly available to adults in all states and the District of Columbia since mid-April 2021, meaning adults in the U.S. have generally been able to be fully vaccinated for COVID-19 since late May 2021 if receiving a two-dose vaccine. COVID-19 vaccines are...




					www.healthsystemtracker.org


----------



## CapnZapp

billd91 said:


> If only the coronavirus would, I don't know, bomb Pearl Harbor or something...



- Coronavirus?

- Forget him, he's rolling...


----------



## J.Quondam

Umbran said:


> _sigh_.  And we wonder what The Great Filter might be?



How depressing that good ol' fashioned "selfish azzhattery"  could be a universal biological constant.


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> How depressing that good ol' fashioned "selfish azzhattery"  could be a universal biological constant.




But... terribly plausible.  Being merely the functional result of typical evolution -high technology requires large numbers of sentient creatures.   Truly large population densities of sentient creatures doesn't happen until some base technology is created, which is typically _after_ the fundamental psychology of the creature is set - so that fundamental psychology has some form of a Dunbar Number, set as some low multiple of the number of individuals a small tribal group might typically contain.  It may be in the hundreds, but not in the tens of thousands.

Your chance to reach the stars is predicated on a species developing empathy far outside its Dunbar Number.  If you don't, you don't go to space, because just around where you develop the technology to go to space, your people wind up too entangled in internecine struggles to go further.  This point may also correspond to the point where the population is sufficiently large to seriously impact planetary ecology.

Basically - you have to be very lucky for your people to become interested enough in the collective welfare that a transition to space is possible.


----------



## Mallus

CapnZapp said:


> - Coronavirus?
> 
> - Forget him, he's rolling...



I'd prefer John Blutarsky to some of the Senators we have now.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> But... terribly plausible.  Being merely the functional result of typical evolution -high technology requires large numbers of sentient creatures.   Truly large population densities of sentient creatures doesn't happen until some base technology is created, which is typically _after_ the fundamental psychology of the creature is set - so that fundamental psychology has some form of a Dunbar Number, set as some low multiple of the number of individuals a small tribal group might typically contain.  It may be in the hundreds, but not in the tens of thousands.
> 
> Your chance to reach the stars is predicated on a species developing empathy far outside its Dunbar Number.  If you don't, you don't go to space, because just around where you develop the technology to go to space, your people wind up too entangled in internecine struggles to go further.  This point may also correspond to the point where the population is sufficiently large to seriously impact planetary ecology.
> 
> Basically - you have to be very lucky for your people to become interested enough in the collective welfare that a transition to space is possible.



So the only thing that's keeping us from the future predicted by "Idiocracy" is Covid?


----------



## embee

Well, my daughter, after missing all of kindergarten, has her class schedule for 1st grade. 

On the one hand, I'm excited to walk her to school next week. 

On the other hand, I know it's going to be short-lived. One of the high schools in our school system just suspended its football program indefinitely after 6 players tested positive for COVID. Yesterday alone, 4 different high schools reported new cases. These are all cases in vaccinated teenagers. Meaning it's almost certainly Delta. 

At my temple, a Board member said that her family, all vaccinated, went on vacation. They're now quarantined at home because 5 out of 6 of them have Delta. 

My wife's cousin is a high school teacher and he's just waiting for the "hybrid" order, which he thinks will probably be before October. 

Personally, I think we're in the eye of the hurricane. I think once school starts in full, things will get bad again. 

I hope I'm wrong.


----------



## Garthanos

cmad1977 said:


> Yeah… 600,00 dead isn’t worth it.
> 
> Gotta destroy property.



Remember things are more important than people. /sarcasm


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> So the only thing that's keeping us from the future predicted by "Idiocracy" is Covid?




I haven't seen Idiocracy, so I can't really say.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> I haven't seen Idiocracy, so I can't really say.



Trailer, for the basics.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Or, well, use the vernacular of the time.  Set aside some vaccine, rebrand it Hyrdroxiverzinc or soemthing, and say, "Friends!  Here's the stuff that They don't want you to know about!  Big Pharma and the FDA don't want to talk about it, but it will SPERCHARGE your immune system, and make covid fears a thing of the past...."
> 
> (Note intentional misspelling of "supercharge".  It adds folksy verisimilitude.)



Even if that worked, I’d ge so concerned that the NEXT pandemic after the well-intentioned duplicity were revealed, the fact of the trickery would be rhetorical fuel for the paranoia factories.

”They lied to us then.  How do we know they’re not lying now?”


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I haven't seen Idiocracy, so I can't really say.



The smarter you are, the darker a comedy it is.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Trailer, for the basics.




Got it.  Then, no.  Having a lid on your species'/culture's/world's development does not imply regression to stupidity.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Got it.  Then, no.  Having a lid on your species'/culture's/world's development does not imply regression to stupidity.



Additional to the trailer, the premise is that stupid people breed like rabbits and smart people are more measured and cautious, so natural selection works against intelligence.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Additional to the trailer, the premise is that stupid people breed like rabbits and smart people are more measured and cautious, so natural selection works against intelligence.




So, that fails a bit of a sniff test in several ways, but, whatever.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> So, that fails a bit of a sniff test in several ways, but, whatever.



It's not a documentary, it's a comedy


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ryujin said:


> Additional to the trailer, the premise is that stupid people breed like rabbits and smart people are more measured and cautious, so natural selection works against intelligence.






Umbran said:


> So, that fails a bit of a sniff test in several ways, but, whatever.



Yeah.  

To get there, you start with average family size decreasing as annual household income increases (statistically proven in the USA,) and then conflate intelligence and earnings (not causally linked at all).


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> So, that fails a bit of a sniff test in several ways, but, whatever.




I don't know. I mean, long-term, sure, it fails. But short-term, in a society that features that very scenario (with "smart" people choosing to not have kids while "stupid" people have truckloads) - it does cause for some unfortunate short-term "evolution". (An oxymoron, of course!)

On the MAIN topic, our Provincial Government is bringing back mandatory indoor masking tomorrow, which will be good for my store because I've been getting tired of arguing with people over it. (We kept mandatory masks in my store in spite of "mandatory" being lifted for "recommended" - a distinction that caused many anti-maskers to declare that masks were "over") But now with Delta on the Rise, we're back to square whatever. 

The more interesting news is the announcement that they are making a smartphone app for proof-of-vaccination. As of September 3, you will have to PROVE vaccination to be allowed into Restaurants, Theatres, Sporting Events, etc. 

You can imagine how well that has gone down with the Canadians who take their social cues from watching too much American TV...


----------



## Zardnaar

62 cases today.  On the plus side it's not exponential growth but haven't flattened to curve yet. 

  Lockdown on 1 case up to 210 now so that 1 was just the first one found.









						Covid-19 outbreak: 20,000 contacts identified
					

More than 20,000 contacts in the Auckland outbreak have now been identified, Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield has confirmed.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> It's not a documentary, it's a comedy




So, the thread's pretty solidly founded in getting people accurate medical science information.  I really don't care if it is a comedy, pointing out its flawed biology is pretty on-message for this discussion.


----------



## Retreater

So I guess GenCon is still happening? (Just thinking about this because some of my friends have tickets.)
At this point, I haven't played D&D in person since March 2020. Our one and only in-person game day was a couple boardgames in the early summer. 
We're looking at postponing our wedding reception again, from November (the original date was going to be April 2020). 
Anybody got hope to share?


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> I don't know. I mean, long-term, sure, it fails. But short-term




Natural selection isn't a short-term process.



FitzTheRuke said:


> , in a society that features that very scenario (with "smart" people choosing to not have kids while "stupid" people have truckloads) - it does cause for some unfortunate short-term "evolution".




So, you mistake natural selection for cultural norms, and are, I think, making loose use of "stupid" such that it confuses the issue.  

Most of the people we are ever so tempted to call stupid (even I fall to the temptation now and again) are of perfectly normal intellectual potential.  We, as a nation and culture, have allowed that potential to go untrained and untapped.  They are "stupid" because we who should have known better have allowed them to fall through the cracks, and left them vulnerable to manipulation.


----------



## GreyLord

For those of you in places where they are have quarantines and such still going on, be grateful that they have that at least.

In my area they refuse to test anyone unless they are at the hospital, no one tells anyone if any of the students test positive, and nothing is going to happen except to treat it as nothing happened, even if teachers and students start dying of it, they are hard set on treating Covid-19 as if it's not happening.

They are not going to quarantine, and I think they've outlawed masks being mandated at the school, as well as dozens of other rules to try to pretend there is no Covid-19 anymore.

Worst of the worst situations here where I'm at.

At least I got vaccinated, that may be my only protection overall from the mass insanity in my area.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> Natural selection isn't a short-term process.
> 
> So, you mistake natural selection for cultural norms, and are, I think, making loose use of "stupid" such that it confuses the issue.
> 
> Most of the people we are ever so tempted to call stupid (even I fall to the temptation now and again) are of perfectly normal intellectual potential.  We, as a nation and culture, have allowed that potential to go untrained and untapped.  They are "stupid" because we who should have known better have allowed them to fall through the cracks, and left them vulnerable to manipulation.




I'm not mistaking anything for anything. I didn't create the joke. There's a reason why it's a tongue-in-cheek "theory".  The point is only that the "intellectual" is NOT breeding, while the "dumb hick" is having large families, and the "reverse-darwinism" joke is there, wrong or not. It's not supposed to be taken absolutely literally.

Personally, I think the joke is elitist... but I still find it somewhat amusing.


----------



## Retreater

GreyLord said:


> At least I got vaccinated, that may be my only protection overall from the mass insanity in my area.



That's what we've got here too. And our local hospital has 20% of their ventilators with fully vaccinated people. We're doing our best, cancelling every plan we can. My wife is trying to get a job to work from home.
Stuff's bad, folks. Be careful.


----------



## Umbran

Retreater said:


> So I guess GenCon is still happening?




Ugh.  I look at the Sturgis Rally, and the state of South Dakota now, and shudder.

GenCon (and, in fact, every convention) is in a pickle.  They've booked dates, and signed some very expensive contracts.  For many organizations, having done that, cancelling the convention simply isn't an option.  If the Governors of the States in which they occur don't take action that forces the contracts to be void, the organizer's are on the hook for that money.  It stinks.



Retreater said:


> Anybody got hope to share?




The Massachusetts Board of Education has voted to allow the Education Commissioner to institute a mask mandate for students K-12, at least until October.  The mandate is contingent on the vaccination rate in the school - if a school can demonstrate that 80% of the students and staff are vaccinated, then those who are vaccinated may be allowed to skip masking.  Those who remain unvaccinated will need to keep wearing masks.  

Our Governor has put forth a mandate that all state workers be vaccinated by mid-October.   The legislature is working on authorizing paid leave to allow those employees to take a couple days to get the vaccine and deal with side effects (and the state budget has a surplus - we can afford to give them the days).  A couple of unions are giving some pushback, but it doesn't look like they'll have much public support.  

Which is to say, not everywhere is full of stupid.  That's a source of hope.


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> I'm not mistaking anything for anything. I didn't create the joke. There's a reason why it's a tongue-in-cheek "theory".




It sure sounds like Idiocracy is a retelling of Kornbluth's, 1951 story "The Marching Morons".  While Kornbluth was being satirical, he was leveraging _REAL_ eugenics theories of the early to mid 20th century.  

Just a few posts above this, we have a post noting that the US _only just recently_ passed the point where the majority of the population believes in evolution.  We have been constantly talking about how backwards some folks are.  

And your follow on sure seemed to be using the "tongue in cheek" theory to talk about possible real short-term events.  So, really pardon me if I don't see you as carrying on a joke.  In this context, it is tragic, not comic.  Please don't expect me to have a sense of humor about bad biology in this thread.  It ain't happening.


----------



## Zardnaar

Potential exploit not really viable in most cases but some of you may have friends who could do it.

 1. You can apply for a critical skills exemption visa to enter New Zealand. Translation you're a qualified healthcare provider.

2. From NZ you can reach the Cook Islands. Season 13 of Survivor was filmed there. 

3. Cook Islands reached 96.7% vaccination rates. 








						Cook Islands achieves over 90 percent vaccination coverage
					

The Cook Islands government has vaccinated more than 90 percent of its eligible population against Covid-19.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




4. Cook Islands has 0 cases of Covid borders are closed to everyone not from NZ.

5. Cost of living in CI is cheap. You could probably semi retire for under $10 USD a year or take a paycut for local wages. 

6. Spend the next 2-3 years semi retired or retired in tropical paradise with some of the friendliest people in the world.

 7. Once Covid is dealt with one way or another go live wherever.

 Have discussed this with my wife. Sell overpriced NZ house retire before age 50.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> It sure sounds like Idiocracy is a retelling of Kornbluth's, 1951 story "The Marching Morons".  While Kornbluth was being satirical, he was leveraging _REAL_ eugenics theories of the early to mid 20th century.



To a certain point, it sort of is.  But having experienced both, I think it’s more likely the screenwriting team, etc. may have heard the title & a synopsis at best.  There’s a commonality of core issues, but they quickly diverge.  The movie focuses a LOT more on the broad comedic elements.


----------



## Hussar

Rage.

That's all I can feel now.  Just angry all the time.  

I'm so tired of being angry.









						Japan to name and shame hospitals that refuse Covid-19 patients
					

Move follows death of a baby born last week to an infected woman forced to give birth at home after being turned away from ‘several’ hospitals.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

There’s another showdown brewing in Florida.  Like Gov. Abbott in Texas, Gov. DeSantis issued orders against mask mandates and vaccine passports.

Well, Disney has decided you’re not getting in one of their cruise ships without a vaccine passport.  And Florida is one of their major port states.  Oh yeah, plus they have amusement parks there, too.  IOW, Disney, a large American company and a major force in Florida’s economy is basically telling DeSantis to take a hike.

So the big question is: how much will he try to flex on the House of Mouse?  If he can’t force Disney to comply, his executive orders fall apart; the bans cannot hold.

The slouching rough beast heading his way looks very mouselike…


----------



## Imaculata

DeSantis is a monster, for deliberately and knowingly help spread the virus and cause more deaths, just to earn a few points with his political base. But then again, that is not a big surprise given some of his other behavior relating to covid.

On a different note, theme parks!

Three weeks after getting my 2nd shot, I visited my favourite themepark to get a healthy dose of fun. Masks are still required in public transport in the Netherlands, but as soon as I came into the park, I was the only one out of many hundreds of people to occasionally mask up in queues.

I heard one guy behind me even mock me for wearing a mask, to score points with his girlfriend. She must be so happy to be in a relationship with a selfish moron. I'm not wearing a mask to protect myself. I'm wearing one to protect people around me. Even if I'm fully vaccinated, I could still be carrying the virus and spreading it to others. So masks may no longer be mandated, but I'm choosing to care for others. But apparently that makes me a weirdo among hundreds of self absorbed selfish pricks.

No exaggeration. I was the only one wearing a mask in a crowded themepark!

The park at least tried to keep people safe. There were screens to divide the queues, and lines painted on the ground to indicate social distance... which everyone ignored. Everyone, young and old, were just huddled together like this was just like any other day at a themepark and like no harm could come to them (or others, if they bothered to care). The repeated reminders by the park to maintain social distance fell on deaf ears and were ignored by all. Kudos to the park, for bringing back voice actors to rerecord lines for covid, and to also do so in English... and to bother to make it rhyme!

Unrelated, but special mention of that guy in line in front of me who ordered hotdogs for his whole family. I hope your rollercoaster crashes and burns! Don't you just hate it when it's almost your turn to order, and the person in front of you just makes a huuuge order, and now you have to wait forever to order your one hotdog. I can't stand it. I guess that makes me a little selfish too. XD


----------



## Zardnaar

Just read some of the emergency powers being used here
 Somehow I don't think they would fly in USA. They can't forcibly vaccinate you as I understand it.  What they can do. 

1. Restrict all travel wherever they want. 
2. They can force you to qurantine. 
3. They can shut down any business they like. 
4. They can requisition vehicles from the public. 
5. They can close or destroy buildings and livestock.  This includes your house (if it's unsanitary). 
6. They can make you get tested. 

 They do have to pay compensation the amount sorted out in district court and it's final. 

 A lot of the wording though is "as he sees fit". 

Section 70 if anyone is bored. 



			https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1956/0065/latest/whole.html


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well, Disney has decided you’re not getting in one of their cruise ships without a vaccine passport.  And Florida is one of their major port states.




DeSantis had already (preliminarily) lost that fight against Norwegian Cruise Line.  That probably does a lot to support Disney in this.




Dannyalcatraz said:


> So the big question is: how much will he try to flex on the House of Mouse?  If he can’t force Disney to comply, his executive orders fall apart; the bans cannot hold.




His ban on mask mandates in schools is also in trouble. Two counties have defied him.  His basic tool for enforcement seems to be to withhold pay from administrators who impost mask mandates.  However, there's a _huge_ chunk of Federal covid relief money for schools that hasn't been used, and that the feds can disburse any way they want, including to cover any wages that DeSantis withholds.

On top of that, the ACLU is suing the state of Georgia over such a ban on mask mandates, and the Federal Department of Education has made noises about investigating such bans as being possible civil rights violations.  A free basic education is a civil right, and making parents choose between that education and their kids' safety may not pass muster.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> DeSantis had already (preliminarily) lost that fight against Norwegian Cruise Line.  That probably does a lot to support Disney in this.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> His ban on mask mandates in schools is also in trouble. Two counties have defied him.  His basic tool for enforcement seems to be to withhold pay from administrators who impost mask mandates.  However, there's a _huge_ chunk of Federal covid relief money for schools that hasn't been used, and that the feds can disburse any way they want, including to cover any wages that DeSantis withholds.
> 
> On top of that, the ACLU is suing the state of Georgia over such a ban on mask mandates, and the Federal Department of Education has made noises about investigating such bans as being possible civil rights violations.  A free basic education is a civil right, and making parents choose between that education and their kids' safety may not pass muster.




 Wouldn't banning masks violate freedom of expression in the constitution?


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Wouldn't banning masks violate freedom of expression in the constitution?




Possibly, depending on context.  But, to be clear, the Governor of Florida didn't ban masks.  He banned _requiring_ masks.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Possibly, depending on context.  But, to be clear, the Governor of Florida didn't ban masks.  He banned _requiring_ masks.




 One would expect reality to intrude. Companies like making money. 

 Can't do that if your customers/staff are dead/broke/scared etc.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> One would expect reality to intrude.




You expect... _reality_... to intrude?


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> You expect... _reality_... to intrude?




 Not really I was being polite. GoP and Fox do care about money though.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Not really I was being polite. GoP and Fox do care about money though.




Commenting on particular political entities is probably not appropriate.  But we can note that the pandemic has not significantly impacted the bottom line for the rich donor class of folks.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Commenting on particular political entities is probably not appropriate.  But we can note that the pandemic has not significantly impacted the bottom line for the rich donor class of folks.




 Some donors thanks to corporate bailouts. 

 Bit some of those donors actually have to sell stuff eg Disney instead of finance/tech.

 Are Plutocrats 1 & 2 acceptable terms?


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> We, as a nation and culture, have allowed that potential to go untrained and untapped.  They are "stupid" because we who should have known better have allowed them to fall through the cracks, and left them vulnerable to manipulation.



I'm not sure what we can do to prevent that.  We have a representative system and they are electing people to represent them that believe the same way they do.  That's how people like to vote.  That applies to school districts as well, and those districts determine the school curriculums for those areas. 

That's the big issue we're fighting.  We can and do get the information to them that masks help and the vaccine is a good thing, but their elected leadership that thinks the way that they do is telling them that what we are saying is wrong.  It's no surprise that they believe their elected(and trusted) leadership over what the rest of us are saying.  Frustrating, but no surprise.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> I'm not sure what we can do to prevent that.




To prevent what's happening now, action needed to be taken a generation ago - those people needed to be armored against irrationality when they were young.  You and I cannot fix the "stupid" of today.  It is our responsibility to fix the stupid of tomorrow.  But that's getting into possible government policy, which really isn't the point of the thread.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> To prevent what's happening now, action needed to be taken a generation ago - those people needed to be armored against irrationality when they were young.  You and I cannot fix the "stupid" of today.  It is our responsibility to fix the stupid of tomorrow.  But that's getting into possible government policy, which really isn't the point of the thread.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> In this context, it is tragic, not comic.




Yes, that is the point. Some things that are amusing are not "HaHa" funny. Sometimes they are sad-funny. Sigh.

I think you entirely misunderstood my intent, but I'll leave it at that.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Here’s one of several articles talking about some of the problems with the ivermectin study.









						A major ivermectin study has signs suggestive of scientific fraud
					

Ivermectin has been promoted as a miracle cure for COVID-19. One of the main studies used to support this claim has signs suggestive of scientific fraud.




					youcanknowthings.com


----------



## Cadence

District one over from ours (with around 27k students total iirc).  









						Over 300 Lexington 1 students test positive for COVID-19
					

As of Aug. 25, 305 students and 56 staff members have tested positive.




					www.wistv.com


----------



## Cadence

Parent at a SC school board meeting..









						South Carolina parent tells school board CDC has plan to use COVID to develop Nazi-style ‘concentration camps’
					

A South Carolina parent told the Greenville County School Board the CDC is considering using the coronavirus pandemic to develop Nazi-style "concentration camps," and wanted to know if the board would "comply" with the health agency's alleged order.There is no evidence that the CDC is creating...




					www.rawstory.com
				




Rumour has it that the one just north of us had a person who was even worse, but I don't have confirmation the video for it is real.


----------



## Deset Gled

Cadence said:


> Parent at a SC school board meeting..



"Now, we know that concentration camps are something that the Nazis did," she continued, "but it can come here at any moment and we need to be aware that they can call it something other than a 'concentration camp.' 

I'd love hear George Takei's response to this.


----------



## CleverNickName

Deset Gled said:


> "Now, we know that concentration camps are something that the Nazis did," she continued, "but it can come here at any moment and we need to be aware that they can call it something other than a 'concentration camp.'
> 
> I'd love hear George Takei's response to this.



Ooof, I know right?  Talk about selective studies in U.S. history...


----------



## Cadence

Verified the worse about COVID and COVID restrictions at one in the public comment section at a school board meeting.  **Warning: Virulent racist/anti-Semitic conspiracies presented at school board meeting*"

It"s somewhere about 1h07 into the original iirc.  Makes some of the other blathering seem not quite as inane by comparison.  Here's the whole thing.








						LR5 COVID precautions met with outraged parents at school board meeting
					

During the open forum portion of the meeting, the board was met by push back from a number of parents.




					www.wistv.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Cadence said:


> Verified the worse one at a school board meeting.  **Warning: Virulent racist/anti-Semitic conspiracies presented at school board meeting*"
> 
> It"s somewhere about 1h07 into the original iirc.  Makes some of the other blathering seem not quite as inane by comparison.  Here's the whole thing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> LR5 COVID precautions met with outraged parents at school board meeting
> 
> 
> During the open forum portion of the meeting, the board was met by push back from a number of parents.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wistv.com



Adrenochrome?  Rothschilds?


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Adrenochrome?  Rothschilds?



I've heard a few conspiracy theories in my day, but the Phoenecian connection is a new one for me.


----------



## J.Quondam

You know the covid is bad when even the _NRA_ cancels a conference _in Texas_.









						NRA cancels annual meeting, citing surging COVID-19 cases in Texas
					

The National Rifle Association has canceled its annual meeting scheduled next month for Houston amid surging COVID-19 cases in Texas.




					www.upi.com


----------



## CleverNickName

I overheard a couple of people on the construction site talking about the Delta variant and the rising numbers of cases.  


Spoiler: Not sure if this is too political for the thread so I'm wrapping it with spoiler tags



One of the fellows said that he was _actually glad _to see the number of Covid-19 cases going up, and he hoped they kept rising even more to "pay us back" for mistreating our former president.  The other guy agreed, saying "let's see if Uncle Joe can do any better."


  I can't even.


----------



## Zardnaar

Government propaganda here. 



 Useless messaging I know. Just got second vaccine shot. No side effects except for a slight buzzing. Just assuming thats the microchips communicating with the mothership. 

 Mask use pretty good only seen 3 people not wearing them and they're not anywhere near anyone else.  

 Usually avoid the CBD but that's where the vaccine location. My cunning plan to get lunch after the vaccine shot failed. Everything is closed except the supermarkets. 

 Panic buying seems to be not a thing but noticed the expensive flour sold out. Exact same flour in a different bag half the price plenty of that. It gets bagged same place exact same flour. 

 Probably bought by the same people who get iPhones.


----------



## Deset Gled

Cadence said:


> Verified the worse about COVID and COVID restrictions at one in the public comment section at a school board meeting.




Here's a guy that stripped at a school board meeting to make the point that we all have to follow rules even if we don't love them, and that if a school can enforce a dress code, they can enforce a mask mandate:



We're living in a time where the naked guy at the school board meeting _is the sane one_.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The ivermectin idiocy gets worse:








						Washington County Jail gaining national attention after inmates receive anti-parasite drug to treat COVID-19
					

The jail, along with a local doctor, is being questioned about using Ivermectin, a deworming medication, to treat COVID-19 symptoms.




					www.5newsonline.com
				




If those prisoners didn’t consent, with full information, there’s a HUGE ethical and legal mess getting ready to be unleashed.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

CleverNickName said:


> I overheard a couple of people on the construction site talking about the Delta variant and the rising numbers of cases.
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Not sure if this is too political for the thread so I'm wrapping it with spoiler tags
> 
> 
> 
> One of the fellows said that he was _actually glad _to see the number of Covid-19 cases going up, and he hoped they kept rising even more to "pay us back" for mistreating our former president.  The other guy agreed, saying "let's see if Uncle Joe can do any better."
> 
> 
> I can't even.



Martin Luther, in a letter responding to the question of how a Christian should respond to a plague* mentioned- among other things- people secretly keeping their infected status secret and intentionally exposing others in the supernatural belief it would somehow cure them.  I’m certain he would react to the “concealed bite” trope in zombie horror fiction with rueful understanding.



* it’s a long but fascinating read, and includes admonitions to take medicines, avoid places where your presence is not vital, and not to put God to the test. 








						Martin Luther: Whether One May Flee From A Deadly Plague
					

Read in full the famous reformer’s advice on Christian faithfulness amid pandemics like the coronavirus.




					www.christianitytoday.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Texas Gov. Abbott - who recently tested positive for COVID-19 - issues executive order blocking vaccine mandates
					

Gov. Greg Abbott's new executive order blocks governments from making COVID-19 vaccines mandatory, even if they're fully approved by the FDA.




					www.yahoo.com
				




I’m trying to figure out exactly how high a mountain of corpses he wants.


----------



## Zardnaar

68 cases today yesterday was 62. Curve might be flattening. All the new cases are linked to existing ones. 

Over 80k vaccines done around 1.5% of the population done in 1 day similar to yesterday numbers. 

 American expats arrived 6 months ago. 


 Slight differences. Lady threw up at the vaccine center. They managed to get her to area set aside for it and something to throw up in. 

Got to go motherships calling.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Sturgis: majority unvaccinated & unmasked attendees leading to huge spike in cases
Lollapaooza: attendees 90% vacc & masking required.   No major spike in cases.









						Warnings About the Sturgis Rally Have Come Tragically True
					

Photo Illustration by The Daily Beast / Photos GettyIn western South Dakota’s Meade County, more than one in three COVID-19 tests are currently returning positive, and over the last three weeks, seven-day average case counts have increased by 3,400 percent. This exponential growth in cases is...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sturgis: majority unvaccinated & unmasked attendees leading to huge spike in cases
> Lollapaooza: attendees 90% vacc & masking required.   No major spike in cases.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Warnings About the Sturgis Rally Have Come Tragically True
> 
> 
> Photo Illustration by The Daily Beast / Photos GettyIn western South Dakota’s Meade County, more than one in three COVID-19 tests are currently returning positive, and over the last three weeks, seven-day average case counts have increased by 3,400 percent. This exponential growth in cases is...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




 So like last year?


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sturgis: majority unvaccinated & unmasked attendees leading to huge spike in cases
> Lollapaooza: attendees 90% vacc & masking required.   No major spike in cases.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Warnings About the Sturgis Rally Have Come Tragically True
> 
> 
> Photo Illustration by The Daily Beast / Photos GettyIn western South Dakota’s Meade County, more than one in three COVID-19 tests are currently returning positive, and over the last three weeks, seven-day average case counts have increased by 3,400 percent. This exponential growth in cases is...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



The "live free or die" crowd (sorry New Hampshire) haven't considered that it might be "live free _and_ die."


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Sturgis: majority unvaccinated & unmasked attendees leading to huge spike in cases
> Lollapaooza: attendees 90% vacc & masking required.   No major spike in cases.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Warnings About the Sturgis Rally Have Come Tragically True
> 
> 
> Photo Illustration by The Daily Beast / Photos GettyIn western South Dakota’s Meade County, more than one in three COVID-19 tests are currently returning positive, and over the last three weeks, seven-day average case counts have increased by 3,400 percent. This exponential growth in cases is...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



The Lollapalooza thing had me worried for a bit - I had bought tickets to take my teen to their first, real concert (21 Pilots, btw) on Labor Day weekend at Milwaukee's Summerfest. But the venue is requiring the same basic precautions as Lollapalooza and is also open air so I'm a little relieved. It's a risk - but one that we are mitigating as much as we can while still participating with Summerfest's help.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> So like last year?



_Exactly _like last year, according to the local health pros.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ryujin said:


> The "live free or die" crowd (sorry New Hampshire) haven't considered that it might be "live free _and_ die.”



“…and take some other with you.”


----------



## Cadence

One of the elementary schools in our district must have hit the 5% threshold (or run out of teachers/staff)  It's going virtual for two weeks.  Classes started the 16th.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well 9 days ago they found a single case. Lockdown. Now have 300+ cases in two cities. 
On the plus side lockdown outside those cities us going down to level 3 and contact tracers seem to be on it.


----------



## Umbran

So, a judge has ruled that Florida Governor DeSantis overstepped his authority - the State has a constitutional requirement to offer safe and secure schools for learning, so DeSantis' order is unconstitutional.

Or, in other words, he can go pound sand.









						Florida Judge Throws Out Gov. Ron DeSantis' Order Prohibiting School Mask Mandates
					

The judge said DeSantis overstepped his authority when he ordered schools not to require masks for students. COVID-19, especially the delta variant, is spreading rapidly across the Florida.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Ryujin said:


> The "live free or die" crowd (sorry New Hampshire) ....




So, today's fun thought.

Just think about the people making those license plates! That's gotta suck.

(sorry, couldn't resist the joke ... way too depressing right now to think about COVID ... the head doctor of the local hospital just said he was so frustrated with the sheer stupidity of the local/state government that we was about to quit, so ... yeah. Good times!)


----------



## Cadence

If my son weren't already virtual for the semester (a state-wide charter), he would be now for at least a while.  Our local middle school has gone virtual too -- joining one of the grade schools.

The district wide numbers earlier this week were changing pretty quickly:

*[District] TOTAL REPORTED AS OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AUGUST 26*
_Staff cases: 28
Student cases: 144_

*[District] TOTAL REPORTED AS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AUGUST 25*
_Staff cases: 16
Student cases: 133_

As of yesterday, the middle school (6th-8th grade) that closed was reporting:

*NORTHSIDE MIDDLE SCHOOL*
_Confirmed positive staff cases: 4
Confirmed positive student cases: 17_









						Northside Middle on temporary remote instruction
					

The remote period -- a result of the impact of COVID on students, staff and school operations -- starts Aug. 30. With new DHEC guidelines, students are now scheduled to return to in-person learning on campus on Sept. 7.




					nms.lex2.org


----------



## Cadence

Cadence said:


> If my son weren't already virtual for the semester (a state-wide charter), he would be now.  Our local middle school has gone virtual too -- joining one of the grade schools.
> 
> The district wide numbers earlier this week were changing pretty quickly:
> 
> *[District] TOTAL REPORTED AS OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AUGUST 26*
> _Staff cases: 28
> Student cases: 144_
> 
> *[District] TOTAL REPORTED AS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AUGUST 25*
> _Staff cases: 16
> Student cases: 133_
> 
> As of yesterday, the middle school (6th-8th grade) that closed was reporting:
> 
> *NORTHSIDE MIDDLE SCHOOL*
> _Confirmed positive staff cases: 4
> Confirmed positive student cases: 17_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Northside Middle on temporary remote instruction
> 
> 
> The remote period -- a result of the impact of COVID on students, staff and school operations -- starts Aug. 30. With new DHEC guidelines, students are now scheduled to return to in-person learning on campus on Sept. 7.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nms.lex2.org



In a nearby district,  "Centerville Elementary School in Gilbert will shift to online instruction for two weeks after the number of students with diagnosed cases of COVID-19, COVID-like symptoms or an exposure to someone with the virus added up to 41% of the student body. Fifteen percent of staff are also currently excluded from school."


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

@Umbran 

I thought your wife (among others) might enjoy this:


----------



## J.Quondam

I don't _want_ to believe that civilization is utterly doomed, but recent times have _seriously_ tested my optimism.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I was looking elsewhere at the postings of someone who “infiltrated” an antivax group that was going “all-in” on ivermectin.  He posted several messages of members who were metaphorically and literally s******g themselves.  Many had soiled themselves in public and were concerned that this might not be normal.

One of the respondents to his post noted it was even worse than he implied, saying that people from that group (and other similar ones) who had taken ivermectin were now asking about “ropeworms”, and advised not to Google the term- results would be NSFW.

When asked what “ropeworms” were, that poster revealed it was images of people who had sloughed off their intestinal linings and thought they were some kind of parasite, and were hoping somebody could ID them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I was looking elsewhere at the postings of someone who “infiltrated” an antivax group that was going “all-in” on ivermectin.  He posted several messages of members who were metaphorically and literally s******g themselves.  Many had soiled themselves in public and were concerned that this might not be normal.
> 
> One of the respondents to his post noted it was even worse than he implied, saying that people from that group (and other similar ones) who had taken ivermectin were now asking about “ropeworms”, and advised not to Google the term- results would be NSFW.
> 
> When asked what “ropeworms” were, that poster revealed it was images of people who had sloughed off their intestinal linings and thought they were some kind of parasite, and were hoping somebody could ID them.




 Not a lot of sympathy. 

 82 cases today passing the 400 mark. At this rate it's gonna be worse than the main outbreak last year which peaked at 89. 

 They're hoping it peaks in the next few days.


----------



## Warpiglet-7

My kid got sent home from school today due to proximity to yet another ‘case.’  Listen I like to drink beer, drive fast cars (gonna get another
One!) but my freedom to be stupid (make good use of it!) ends where it infringes on others.

get your damn shot so we can all hang out at heavy metal concerts, church, bars and GAMING  Tables again (color me frustrated).

we got everyone but my youngest two vaccinated…as soon as they can…


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I thought your wife (among others) might enjoy this:





Edit to add:  I mean... I mean... 

Dudes, you think a vaccine is dangerous so... you eat _horse goo from a tractor store_?  This _MAKES SENSE_ to you?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Their chosen cures may actually start racking up a higher bodycount than Covid itself.


----------



## Cadence

It feels like "the unvaxxed are killing veterans" would be motivational to some who need motivating to do it.  I don't think it will matter.









						Veteran dies of treatable illness as COVID fills hospital beds, leaving doctors "playing musical chairs"
					

The surge in new COVID cases is putting an enormous strain on hospitals, jeopardizing patients who cannot get the medical attention they need because of a lack of space.




					www.cbsnews.com


----------



## Hussar

Was watching Qi - a fun fact show from England, and David Mitchell's comment - the problem with these fake cures isn't that they kill the disease.  They do.  But, they have a rather serious side effect in killing the human too.  I'm paraphrasing but, it's a great line.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Their chosen cures may actually start racking up a higher bodycount than Covid itself.




 Expect the worst then lower that expectation.

 Officially bored now. Day 11 lockdown idk.


----------



## Retreater

Cadence said:


> It feels like "the unvaxxed are killing veterans" would be motivational to some who need motivating to do it.  I don't think it will matter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Veteran dies of treatable illness as COVID fills hospital beds, leaving doctors "playing musical chairs"
> 
> 
> The surge in new COVID cases is putting an enormous strain on hospitals, jeopardizing patients who cannot get the medical attention they need because of a lack of space.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cbsnews.com



I think there is nothing now that will motivate the unvaccinated: FDA-approval, free and easy access, begging from family/doctors/politicians/ celebrities/faith leaders.

The only thing that has a chance now is hitting them with fines, risk losing employment, removing their kids from school, etc. 

Waiting until COVID passes might be an option. Maybe it will mutate into a less threatening variant. Maybe we can achieve enough of a herd immunity against those lesser strains that when the bigger ones come around, we'll either have enough immunity to protect us or the issue won't be as politicized.

Like most other areas of life, I have no faith in that, but I do have hope.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I was looking elsewhere at the postings of someone who “infiltrated” an antivax group that was going “all-in” on ivermectin.  He posted several messages of members who were metaphorically and literally s******g themselves.  Many had soiled themselves in public and were concerned that this might not be normal.
> 
> One of the respondents to his post noted it was even worse than he implied, saying that people from that group (and other similar ones) who had taken ivermectin were now asking about “ropeworms”, and advised not to Google the term- results would be NSFW.
> 
> When asked what “ropeworms” were, that poster revealed it was images of people who had sloughed off their intestinal linings and thought they were some kind of parasite, and were hoping somebody could ID them.



Tractor Supply: Your one stop shop.


----------



## Warpiglet-7

Cadence said:


> It feels like "the unvaxxed are killing veterans" would be motivational to some who need motivating to do it.  I don't think it will matter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Veteran dies of treatable illness as COVID fills hospital beds, leaving doctors "playing musical chairs"
> 
> 
> The surge in new COVID cases is putting an enormous strain on hospitals, jeopardizing patients who cannot get the medical attention they need because of a lack of space.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cbsnews.com



If all the stuff I have seen this about tops my list of unnecessary and sad.  Real patriotic USA.  Can you imagine losing a loved one to something that treatable?  And all that probably follows tons of worry about the over one getting home from deployments.


----------



## Eltab

Retreater said:


> I think there is nothing now that will motivate the unvaccinated: FDA-approval, free and easy access, begging from family/doctors/politicians/ celebrities/faith leaders.
> 
> The only thing that has a chance now is hitting them with fines, risk losing employment, removing their kids from school, etc.



Persecutions and belittlings will accomplish nothing.  Doing what hasn't worked yet, only more of it and trying harder, is not going to change their minds to think maybe this time things will improve.

What will help is a serious ego-busting change: fire the highly-credentialed but no-longer-credible leadership that brought us the existing "stop the spread" plan.  Acknowledge that "the experts have determined" is such a turn-off that a whole block of people don't listen or care.  From now on we have to think about 'what can people use at home, themselves, to deal with COVID?'

Knock off "but this time it's different!", tell the CDC &c bureaucracy to find the plans that were used to successfully contain and defeat other contagious diseases; adapt those plans to current circumstances.  
Shut down the One True Way-ism surrounding the vaccines.  
Order research into existing medicines that treat viruses and their symptoms (like DayQuil and other 'fights flu-like symptoms' off-the-shelf purchases) to learn what they can do to help vs COVID.  
Start development of the obvious use-at-home tools (like a reliable Coronavirus-19 detection kit) that let people find out what _their_ condition is.  
Ask other countries what they are doing that we haven't done and how it worked / didn't (India was using human-dose Ivermectin last year; did they stop, and if so why?).  
Acknowledge that we might find dead-ends and things that only help for a while, and be willing to course-correct when necessary.  
Accept data from the field in real time, knowing it will start off rough-draft and get better with experience, instead of waiting months for perfectly-conducted clinical studies to be published - and be permanently weeks or months behind the conditions people are living through now.

In short, quit trying to prove Who's The Boss and get serious about doing Medicine.  
We need a large toolbox full of techniques and methods and gear that gain public trust.  The best way to gain said trust is when people see "this is working"; then they will support The Plan instead of fighting (or ignoring) it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Reinstate that old rule revoked in the 80's about media ethics would help.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> Knock off "but this time it's different!", tell the CDC &c bureaucracy to find the plans that were used to successfully contain and defeat other contagious diseases; adapt those plans to current circumstances.




In prior pandemics, what worked was masking, contact tracing, distancing & quarantines, more attention to hygiene, and vaccinations, the bulk of which are currently held in low regard by far too many.


Eltab said:


> Shut down the One True Way-ism surrounding the vaccines.



They’re the best weapon we have against viral pathogens in general, and C19 in particular



Eltab said:


> Order research into existing medicines that treat viruses and their symptoms (like DayQuil and other 'fights flu-like symptoms' off-the-shelf purchases) to learn what they can do to help vs COVID.



That’s been done since day 1.  That’s part of why the C19 vaccines we have  were so quickly developed- the research on them grew out of the research on SARS & MERS.




> Start development of the obvious use-at-home tools (like a reliable Coronavirus-19 detection kit) that let people find out what _their_ condition is.



Big Pharma has been on that for a while.



> Ask other countries what they are doing that we haven't done and how it worked / didn't (India was using human-dose Ivermectin last year; did they stop, and if so why?).



Other countries have tried:
1) stricter lockdowns.  Won’t work here- some likely to resist with deadly force.
2) mandatory contact tracing apps.  Constitutional issues and distrust of government are barriers here- we would likely need an actual constitutional amendment to get that off the ground. 
3) aiming for natural herd immunity.  Completely ineffective.
4) relying on personal responsibility.  Their societies are more communal and less individualistic than ours.
5) stricter border controls.  That worked for smaller island nations, we have too many large, unpatrolled/unpatrollable sections of our border to be effective.

As for India and Ivermectin, while it is true that the drug has certain antiviral properties, there are problems with adopting its use for treating C19.  First of all, as I understand it, its known antiviral properties are not as good as other actual antivirals- they’re more like a n unintended beneficial side effect.  

Second, thErie’s a world of difference between the human formulation of Ivermectin and the veterinary version.  And it’s the latter that people are grabbing off the shelves and essentia poisoning themselves with.

Third, the reason why India is using it is because of its main use as an anti-parasitic.  A huge number of Indian Covid patients also have parasitic afflictions which will depress their immune system.  Treating these patients with ivermectin gets rid of the parasites and gives them a better chance of fighting off Covid with their body’s basic immune system, supplemented by whatever else their MDs and public health measures can throw at it.



> Acknowledge that we might find dead-ends and things that only help for a while, and be willing to course-correct when necessary.



This is standard operating procedure.



> Accept data from the field in real time, knowing it will start off rough-draft and get better with experience, instead of waiting months for perfectly-conducted clinical studies to be published - and be permanently weeks or months behind the conditions people are living through now.



That runs contrary to a host of legal and ethical issues, both domestic and internationally.


----------



## J.Quondam

Eltab said:


> We need a large toolbox full of techniques and methods and gear that gain public trust.  The best way to gain said trust is when people see "this is working"; then they will support The Plan instead of fighting (or ignoring) it.



This so-called lack of trust exists in _one_ hyper-propagandized, obnoxiously loud, and willfully ignorant segment of society. Most of the public already is on board, and has been for quite some time. That's why there's such strong majority support for policies like vaccine mandates and masking in businesses and schools.

Unfortunately that very special segment of society vehemently flouts commonsense guidelines, trusts random facebook posts over actual medical experts, and is apparently completely untroubled by filling up ICUs with their own dying corpses. They happily attend superspreader events, back anti-science legislation, and poison themselves with random substances-- all because they "don't trust" the people who are trying to help them!

This very special segment of society is a legitimate menace to society at this point, and i simply don't care about their feelings or concerns anymore. They've a had _over a year and a half_ to get over it! Sorry, but I'm tired of keeping _my_ life on hold, while they have their tantrums. I'm tired of them, and I'm tired of hearing how persecuted and misunderstood they pretend to be. I mean I've been doing my part to help get this pandemic over and done with, but those very special people-- and the cynical politicians and "news" profiteers that that pander to them-- keep getting in the way. Why?

It's way past time for them to fix themselves, because clearly the rest of _civilized_ society can't do it for them.
When are THEY going to finally step up? When are THEY going to finally exhibit the responsibilities that come along with their precious freedoms?


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> From now on we have to think about 'what can people use at home, themselves, to deal with COVID?'
> 
> ...
> 
> In short, quit trying to prove Who's The Boss and get serious about doing Medicine.




If you are serious about dong Medicine... then "what you can use at home" is wear a mask, wash your hands, don't go where there are large numbers of people, and get vaccinated.

That's it.


----------



## Mallus

Eltab said:


> Persecutions and belittlings will accomplish nothing.  Doing what hasn't worked yet, only more of it and trying harder, is not going to change their minds to think maybe this time things will improve.
> 
> What will help is a serious ego-busting change: fire the highly-credentialed but no-longer-credible leadership that brought us the existing "stop the spread" plan.  Acknowledge that "the experts have determined" is such a turn-off that a whole block of people don't listen or care.  From now on we have to think about 'what can people use at home, themselves, to deal with COVID?'
> 
> Knock off "but this time it's different!", tell the CDC &c bureaucracy to find the plans that were used to successfully contain and defeat other contagious diseases; adapt those plans to current circumstances.
> Shut down the One True Way-ism surrounding the vaccines.



I’ve got a better idea.

Let them eat horse dewormer.


----------



## CleverNickName

Dannyalcatraz said:


> @Umbran
> 
> I thought your wife (among others) might enjoy this:



I'm gonna go out on a limb here.   That fellow never went to med school at all, did he?


----------



## Umbran

CleverNickName said:


> I'm gonna go out on a limb here.   That fellow never went to med school at all, did he?




The dude in that video  is _completely correct_.  There's lots of medications you cannot use in an animal that's intended for human consumption, as many meds linger in the body for some time.

I'm doing a headdesk over the woman misreading the sentence.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> The dude in that video  is _completely correct_.  There's lots of medications you cannot use in an animal that's intended for human consumption, as many meds linger in the body for some time.



And, FWIW, that’s for both medical AND legal reasons.


----------



## CleverNickName

I don't disagree; it just seemed the sort of question you would want to ask a doctor.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

CleverNickName said:


> I don't disagree; it just seemed the sort of question you would want to ask a doctor.



What question?  The simple fact is, she really misread the label.


----------



## Hussar

Eltab said:


> /snip
> 
> In short, quit trying to prove Who's The Boss and get serious about doing Medicine.
> We need a large toolbox full of techniques and methods and gear that gain public trust.  The best way to gain said trust is when people see "this is working"; then they will support The Plan instead of fighting (or ignoring) it.



But, we are getting serious about doing Medicine.  It's never, ever been about trying to prove "who's the boss". That's the line the anti-vaxxer crowd wants people to accept.  That it's about "personal freedoms" and the like.  It has never, EVER been about that.  Mask mandates, stay at home orders, whatever, have NOTHING to do with curbing personal freedoms and everything to do with trying to save lives.

It's absolutely astonishing to me that anyone would seriously think that the government actually _wants _to curb freedoms and whatnot.  Do people not realize that most governments are commiting political suicide right now?  Other than maybe New Zealand anyway.    Ask Ontario how they feel about their Premier.  Or Canada what they think of Trudeau.  Good grief, anti-vaxxers were so violent that Trudeau actually had to cancel a public meeting a day or so ago.  In CANADA??!?!  Good grief, we had a PM who called out the freaking army, stripped away every Canadians rights and enacted the War Measures Act and had less hostility than what Trudeau is facing now. 

We HAVE the public trust.  Overwhelmingly do we have the public trust.  Every single poll shows that people are getting vaccinated, in very large numbers, and support (to some degree anyway) mask mandates and various other things that the governments have had to do.  This isn't about gaining trust.  This is about finally addressing the elephant in the room that has been simmering for decades - a very insular, very defensive and very, very wrong group of the population that has rejected anything approaching science in favor of whatever naughty word that makes them feel better about the world.  

To be very, very blunt about it, this is the West's version of extremists.  They are violent.  They are not interested in anything approaching conciliation and they are radicalized.

There is almost no difference between these people and any other radical extremists you care to name.


----------



## CleverNickName

I promise, I'm not trying to insult the fellow in the video (or anyone, for that matter.)  The point I'm trying to address is that misinformation on the internet doesn't spring up suddenly overnight, like a mushroom...it's usually carefully cultivated.  Usually by "internetainers" and "content creators" trying to generate clicks.

The lady in the video is perfectly comfortable discussing medication with (presumably) a stranger on the Internet.  Not only that, she is comfortable with recording herself doing it.  On a social media platform.  _From her car._  And whether the fellow is right or wrong, this lady (and possibly any others who watch the TikTok) will now equate his opinion with that of a medical professional.

Why isn't this lady having this discussion with her doctor?  Why discuss medication with some guy on the internet instead?  Why _that guy _in particular?  Why was it recorded and distributed over social media?  All of this is just...weird.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> But, we are getting serious about doing Medicine.  It's never, ever been about trying to prove "who's the boss". That's the line the anti-vaxxer crowd wants people to accept.  That it's about "personal freedoms" and the like.  It has never, EVER been about that.  Mask mandates, stay at home orders, whatever, have NOTHING to do with curbing personal freedoms and everything to do with trying to save lives.
> 
> It's absolutely astonishing to me that anyone would seriously think that the government actually _wants _to curb freedoms and whatnot.  Do people not realize that most governments are commiting political suicide right now?  Other than maybe New Zealand anyway.    Ask Ontario how they feel about their Premier.  Or Canada what they think of Trudeau.  Good grief, anti-vaxxers were so violent that Trudeau actually had to cancel a public meeting a day or so ago.  In CANADA??!?!  Good grief, we had a PM who called out the freaking army, stripped away every Canadians rights and enacted the War Measures Act and had less hostility than what Trudeau is facing now.
> 
> We HAVE the public trust.  Overwhelmingly do we have the public trust.  Every single poll shows that people are getting vaccinated, in very large numbers, and support (to some degree anyway) mask mandates and various other things that the governments have had to do.  This isn't about gaining trust.  This is about finally addressing the elephant in the room that has been simmering for decades - a very insular, very defensive and very, very wrong group of the population that has rejected anything approaching science in favor of whatever naughty word that makes them feel better about the world.
> 
> To be very, very blunt about it, this is the West's version of extremists.  They are violent.  They are not interested in anything approaching conciliation and they are radicalized.
> 
> There is almost no difference between these people and any other radical extremists you care to name.




 Last I looked Australian prime minister not to popular either. It's not about saving people but serving the plutocrats but I think they can't even to prretend to care for the middle class. 

  Today's numbers 83 (82 yesterday) 511 cases, 32 in hospital 2 stable in ICU. 

 They thought it would peak in 8-10 days this is 11 or 12 I forget. Compliance is getting harder so diminishing returns.

 Vaccine number two had the option to wait another 3 weeks for ideal results but idk if they will have supplies in 3 weeks or what things will be like in 5 weeks once it takes effect. 1.8% of the population getting vaccinated daily.


----------



## Hussar

CleverNickName said:


> I promise, I'm not trying to insult the fellow in the video (or anyone, for that matter.)  The point I'm trying to address is that misinformation on the internet doesn't spring up suddenly overnight, like a mushroom...it's usually carefully cultivated.
> 
> The lady in the video is perfectly comfortable discussing medication with (presumably) a stranger on the Internet.  Not only that, she is comfortable with recording herself doing it.  On a social media platform.  And whether the fellow is right or wrong, this lady (and possibly any others who watch the TikTok) will now equate his opinion with that of a medical professional.
> 
> Why isn't this lady having this discussion with her doctor?  Why discuss medication with some guy on the internet instead?  Why _that guy _in particular?  Why was it recorded and distributed over social media?  All of this is just...weird.



Well, see, I think this gets right to the heart of the issue.  Talking to a doctor or medical professional is equated with random guy on the internet. 

I had an argument with a friend some time ago about masking.  He was kinda/sorta on the fence about the need for masks.  This was fairly early days into the pandemic, so, fair enough.  My response was, "Well, every doctor on the planet is saying to wear a mask.  I think they know what they are talking about."  His response was to link some exercise Youtuber's research where he had created a very slick, very professional video "debunking" masks.  Even had links to peer reviewed journals and whatnot.  

My response was, "Who do you believe?  The guy whose business model is based on getting you to click links and thus is strongly motivated to create controversy or every doctor on the planet?"  

And his response was, "Well, we should listen to both sides."

To me, there aren't two sides here.  There's one side - wear a (expletive) (Your Mother Is a Big Hippo) mask.  End of story.  Full stop.  But, people have become so trained to suspect expertise, to take the other side just because and ignore evidence that it's almost impossible to have a real conversation.  How can you talk to someone who refuses to even accept your basic premises?


----------



## J.Quondam

Hussar said:


> There is almost no difference between these people and any other radical extremists you care to name.



I'll just leave this here:


Spoiler: news item












						Taliban ban on jabs may trigger COVID-19 spike
					

The Taliban’s hostility to vaccinations may trigger a COVID-19 spike in Afghanistan, say medical experts.




					www.scidev.net


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Last I looked Australian prime minister not to popular either. It's not about saving people but serving the plutocrats but I think they can't even to prretend to care for the middle class.
> 
> Today's numbers 83 (82 yesterday) 511 cases, 32 in hospital 2 stable in ICU.
> 
> They thought it would peak in 8-10 days this is 11 or 12 I forget. Compliance is getting harder so diminishing returns.
> 
> Vaccine number two had the option to wait another 3 weeks for ideal results but idk if they will have supplies in 3 weeks or what things will be like in 5 weeks once it takes effect. 1.8% of the population getting vaccinated daily.



Yeah, but, let's be honest here.  Your WORST day would be most country's BEST.  I'm in the same boat.  My students were talking about how Japan is so dangerous right now.  And, yup, we're having our worst days right now.  ((And, then there's the question of honesty in the reporting which is a separate issue))  But, again, Japan's worst days, right now, are equal to Canada's cases right now.  And Canada has 1/4 the population, probably 1/100th the population density and has vaccinated FAR more than Japan has.  

Good and bad are pretty relative.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Yeah, but, let's be honest here.  Your WORST day would be most country's BEST.  I'm in the same boat.  My students were talking about how Japan is so dangerous right now.  And, yup, we're having our worst days right now.  ((And, then there's the question of honesty in the reporting which is a separate issue))  But, again, Japan's worst days, right now, are equal to Canada's cases right now.  And Canada has 1/4 the population, probably 1/100th the population density and has vaccinated FAR more than Japan has.
> 
> Good and bad are pretty relative.




  Yeah I'm not sure how this one's gonna go. Take vaccine now worry later.


----------



## Hussar

J.Quondam said:


> I'll just leave this here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Taliban ban on jabs may trigger COVID-19 spike
> 
> 
> The Taliban’s hostility to vaccinations may trigger a COVID-19 spike in Afghanistan, say medical experts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.scidev.net



Yeah, I was trying REALLY, REALLY hard not to use the "T" word.  I had to rewrite that post about three times to avoid it.   

((Gack, I'm trying so, so very hard not to dive into politics here.   Sorry if I'm going too far.))


----------



## J.Quondam

Hussar said:


> Yeah, I was trying REALLY, REALLY hard not to use the "T" word.  I had to rewrite that post about three times to avoid it.
> 
> ((Gack, I'm trying so, so very hard not to dive into politics here.   Sorry if I'm going too far.))



Yeah, good point. I've spoilered the headline it in my post.
And, mods, apologies; i can delete if it crosses the line.


----------



## Umbran

CleverNickName said:


> I don't disagree; it just seemed the sort of question you would want to ask a doctor.



If you are medicating a food animal, you should have already asked a doctor about the medicine you are giving that animal. 

Reminding people of simple grammar does not require the intervention of a doctor.

If you are trying to somehow claim that the horse goo you bought at the feed store isn't actually for horses, and is instead for humans, then you very much want to be in contact with a lawyer, rather than a doctor.


----------



## Umbran

CleverNickName said:


> I promise, I'm not trying to insult the fellow in the video (or anyone, for that matter.)  The point I'm trying to address is that misinformation on the internet doesn't spring up suddenly overnight, like a mushroom...it's usually carefully cultivated.  Usually by "internetainers" and "content creators" trying to generate clicks.
> 
> The lady in the video is perfectly comfortable discussing medication with (presumably) a stranger on the Internet.




I am pretty sure you have _completely_ misidentified what is going on in that video.  I see no sign hose two people are not having a real time conversation.  

More likely - One woman recorded a video of reading that label - the clip probably only has a small segment of her presentation.  The gent then took that video, clipped down to that bit, added his thoughts, and released it as a sort of response.


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> And, mods, apologies; i can delete if it crosses the line.




Let's just all drop it and we can move forward, hey what?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> I am pretty sure you have _completely_ misidentified what is going on in that video.  I see no sign hose two people are not having a real time conversation.
> 
> More likely - One woman recorded a video of reading that label - the clip probably only has a small segment of her presentation.  The gent then took that video, clipped down to that bit, added his thoughts, and released it as a sort of response.



Bingo!

She’s attempting to put forth a video containing the idea that ivermectin is a medication intended for humans, presumably to prove that its use by humans to fight Covid isn’t completely idiotic.

The man has made a response video (in which he quoted a portion of her video) to illustrate that her entire premise is based on an extremely flawed misreading of the label.


----------



## Zardnaar

Day 12 Orr 13 of lockdown. First time since the first case we have had declining numbers 53 (83 yesterday).

 Someone enjoys lockdown.


 Getting tag teamed. 



Covid conspiracy protests. Big turnout of 1. 









						NZ COVID-19 conspiracy group in disarray after almost nobody turns up to anti-lockdown protest
					

"I was there, only to see an empty Aotea Square, bar one man holding a placard and a few Nazis."




					www.newshub.co.nz


----------



## Hussar

Cute cat.  (I had to edit my first comment as the joke was too easy and a bit too risqué for Eric's Grandma).


----------



## Zardnaar

Ok







Hussar said:


> Cute cat.  (I had to edit my first comment as the joke was too easy and a bit too risqué for Eric's Grandma).




It's 2 of the little muppets.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

First, all of my thoughts are going out to the people of Louisiana and surrounding areas. I was up all night watching that, and I can't imagine having to deal with the natural disaster on top of a pandemic on top of it being during the anniversary of Katrina; the PTSD from that alone ... if you're in an area that has to regularly deal with natural disasters of that type, you just get sinking feeling.

...and it seems like more and more of this country is prone to natural disasters, doesn't it?

In today's terrible pandemic news, a person I know and her daughter are "out with the COVID" which seems like a frighteningly common occurrence recently. Overall numbers in some places are worse than at the prior peak, yet ... no one is doing anything? 

It's bizarre. I feel like so many people have made a collective decision to say, "Eff it." The people that have been vaccinated are just wishing a pox (quite literally) upon the unvaccinated, and the unvaccinated* just don't care about other people, and together, no one is doing anything. _shrug_ 

*The ones by choice. Words cannot express how difficult this must be to people who are unable to get vaccinated.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

@Snarf Zagyg

I don’t think anywhere on earth is free from catastrophic natural disasters.  I was born in NOLA (hurricanes, floods), we moved to the PacNW (earthquakes, volcanoes, blizzards) and for half my life and counting, I’ve lived in one place or another in Tornado Alley.

That said, you couldn’t PAY me to live on the side of an active volcano like Mt. Etna.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Dannyalcatraz said:


> @Snarf Zagyg
> 
> i don’t think anywhere on earth is free from catastrophic natural disasters.  I was born in NOLA (hurricanes, floods), we moved to the PacNW (earthquakes, volcanoes, blizzards) and for half my life and counting, I’ve lived in one place or another in Tornado Alley.




As a general matter, I agree. I think I remember reading, a while ago, about where to live in the US if you didn't want to have any natural disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes, flooding, tornadoes, etc. etc.) and it was some place in Connecticut? 

....but, for reasons I think we are all likely familiar with, it does seem like the _severity and/or occurrence_ of extreme weather events has been on the upswing, whether it's wildfires due to drought or rapidly intensifying hurricanes.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> ...and it seems like more and more of this country is prone to natural disasters, doesn't it?




In a sense, there's no such thing as a natural disaster.  Everything we term a "natural disaster" is really just a natural event that we didn't prepare for.  The disaster isn't of nature, but our own choices.



Snarf Zagyg said:


> It's bizarre. I feel like so many people have made a collective decision to say, "Eff it." The people that have been vaccinated are just wishing a pox (quite literally) upon the unvaccinated, and the unvaccinated* just don't care about other people, and together, no one is doing anything. _shrug_




For the bulk of us, there isn't anything constructive that we can do.  The solutions are known.  The solutions are available.  There's nothing that we, as individual citizens, can do to induce them to accept and utilize these solutions.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

There’s also the rise of the 24 hour news cycle and the ubiquity of smart phones that put more info at our fingertips. 

My 75yo Mom is fond of telling me that, in her childhood & young adulthood, she had no inkling as to how long hurricanes lasted.  They got hit, the power would go out, and by the time it was restored, the system had moved on or dissipated.  And you wouldn’t find out about damage or casualties in the detail we get today.


----------



## Maxperson

Snarf Zagyg said:


> First, all of my thoughts are going out to the people of Louisiana and surrounding areas. I was up all night watching that, and I can't imagine having to deal with the natural disaster on top of a pandemic on top of it being during the anniversary of Katrina; the PTSD from that alone ... if you're in an area that has to regularly deal with natural disasters of that type, you just get sinking feeling.



So yesterday I got a call from a buddy that I haven't talked to in about 2 years, since he moved to Baton Rouge.  He was like, "Hey man.  So I'm at my in-laws house and the eye of the hurricane is almost here.  The winds making a really neat sound outside and I thought it would make a good soundtrack for a D&D game and thought I would call you." My immediate response was, "Are you okay?  Did they want you to get out of there?" and he kept talking about how if I ever saw a track of high winds I should buy it.  

51 years of life and I've never been on the phone with someone who was literally in the middle of a hurricane and the topic being pushed was not.....................the hurricane. Kinda threw me off a bit.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s also the rise of the 24 hour news cycle and the ubiquity of smart phones that put more info at our fingertips.
> 
> My 75yo Mom is fond of telling me that, in her childhood & young adulthood, she had no inkling as to how long hurricanes lasted.  They got hit, the power would go out, and by the time it was restored, the system had moved on or dissipated.  And you wouldn’t find out about damage or casualties in the detail we get today.




That's true, in some ways.

But ... if you've been in one of the areas affected, then you know that the media coverage of the damage usually goes away quickly - there's always something bright, shiny, and new. 

But if you're there, you're still dealing with the power loss, the reconstruction, the lack of potable water, for weeks or months or even years afterwards. Maybe it's just losing power. Maybe it's losing your house or your neighborhood. 

There's a big difference between living through a Michael, or an Irma, or a Katrina, or an Andrew, or a Sandy, or  a Maria, or a Harvey and seeing it reported on the media. 

And if you have, you don't wish that on anyone else.


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That said, you couldn’t PAY me to live on the side of an active volcano like Mt. Etna.



LOL And I have a story about that as well...

Around 4 or 5 years ago my mother was visiting my wife and I and at one point she says, "I was talking to some people last week and I have an opportunity to buy property on the side of Mt. Vesuvius.  Do you think I should?"  My wife and I paused at that and were like, "Italy is a nice place and all, but don't you think there might be better places to buy a house?"  My mother responded, "But those other places are a lot more expensive." to which we replied, "Yes, there's a reason for that.  Pompei!"

Edit: it might have been next to and not on the mountain, but still...


----------



## Umbran

I read an interesting bit today, relevant to those folks who are getting covid, or their loved ones are getting covid, and going to the hospital, and still they _refuse_ to accept the dire nature of the situation.  The behavior we are seeing (and it's remedy) are well known... in the study of confidence games, fraud and grift.

There comes a time in every scam in which the victim figures out that they've been had.  But the most common behavior is not to report the scam to authorities and add information to bring the grifter to justice.  No - most victims keep their moths shut... because it is embarrassing.

It is deeply, profoundly, and indeed identity-challengingly embarassing.  Fraud generally depends on making you feel like you are making the smart and right choice that others won't make.  You identify as a shrewd individual, but the grift reveals you to be... just an ordinary, easily-fooled mark.

The mark has two choices - accept the loss, or reject the fact that it was all a grift.  Up to the moment of this choice, the mark is a victim, and we can have some empathy for that.  However, they remain on the hook for their choice at this point, ethically speaking.  But, many choose to reject that there was a grift, and that's dangerous, because it perpetuates the grift to others.

Society, then, has two basic choices -
1) Deliver appropriate social consequences for their anti-social behavior.  Refuse to be around them, and make it clear why, and reject the narrative of being a victim - focus instead on asking what they are doing to prevent needless harm.  This is what most of us think of when we consider dealing with these issues.  However, it is a road filled with direct conflict.

2) Employ what in the study of fraud is called a "cooler".  The cooler's job is not to absolve the mark, or allow them to view themselves as victims.  The cooler helps them _redefine themselves_ in a way that reconciles to reality and allows them to move forward. 

Those of us outside the mark's community cannot act as coolers.  The mark doesn't give a fetid dingo's kidney if they have the respect of random people on the internet.    They have communities that matter to them, that they use to define their role in the world - sometimes called "reference groups" - groups the mark refers to when they consider who they are.  Church communities, for example, are often reference groups.  The cooler needs to be a face from such a group.

Early on, the work of coolers is often rejected - we have seen some members of Congress who have tried to move beyond the fraud narrative be rejected, for example.  But the more coolers you have, the more they become difficult to ignore.  The job of society, in this case, becomes to find the coolers, and support them.  Allow them to help their communities redefine themselves to be something that no longer embraces the con.

Edit to add:  Here's an example of a cooler -


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> As a general matter, I agree. I think I remember reading, a while ago, about where to live in the US if you didn't want to have any natural disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes, flooding, tornadoes, etc. etc.) and it was some place in Connecticut?




Yeah, but... note how Connecticut just got dumped on by Henri - it did something like $8 to $12 billion in damage.

Which we don't hear about, but that supports your point about how the news cycle moves on.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Umbran said:


> Yeah, but... note how Connecticut just got dumped on by Henri - it did something like $8 to $12 billion in damage.




I went back and looked up what I vaguely recalled-it was Storrs, Connecticut. This was back in 2005 (my, how time flies!).

It was the best place to avoid death from natural disaster. 









						Where to hide from Mother Nature.
					

Human beings are self-absorbed creatures, so the response to Hurricane Katrina has naturally included some hand-wringing over the question: "Could...




					slate.com
				




You may or may not agree with their methodology.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> You may or may not agree with their methodology.




I can simply note that in the era dominated by climate change, we can expect nowhere to be safe from events that have been historically rare.  Past events will not be a good predictor of future events.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> I can simply note that in the era dominated by climate change, we can expect nowhere to be safe from events that have been historically rare.  Past events will not be a good predictor of future events.




 In the USA I figured safest place would be inland on a hill in a geographically stable place not beside a river. Somewhere in the NE Appalachia through to Vermont.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> In the USA I figured safest place would be inland on a hill in a geographically stable place not beside a river. Somewhere in the NE Appalachia through to Vermont.



Except in Vermont, you have very, very cold winters.  Bitterly cold.  The first ice storm that lasts a few days, and people start dying.  This has happened in the recent past.  

Then again, I live about 100 km from the world's largest volcano calderra, so, who am I to talk.  And yup, active volcano.  I was actually up there once when it vented.  Just gas, nothing poisonous, but, does make you beat feat in a hurry when you see a jet of steam about the size of a 747 come blasting out of a volcano.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Except in Vermont, you have very, very cold winters.  Bitterly cold.  The first ice storm that lasts a few days, and people start dying.  This has happened in the recent past.




And then, there was Hurricane Irene... 








						Hurricane Irene - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Ryujin

In Ontario, Canada there are now 70% of children between 12 and 17 years of age fully vaccinated and 80% who are at least partially vaccinated. School starts back up after Labour Day. I';m still thinking that Delta will see things shut down again within the month, but I'm a pessimist of the "hope for the best, but plan for the worst" type.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Except in Vermont, you have very, very cold winters.  Bitterly cold.  The first ice storm that lasts a few days, and people start dying.  This has happened in the recent past.
> 
> Then again, I live about 100 km from the world's largest volcano calderra, so, who am I to talk.  And yup, active volcano.  I was actually up there once when it vented.  Just gas, nothing poisonous, but, does make you beat feat in a hurry when you see a jet of steam about the size of a 747 come blasting out of a volcano.




 OK west Virginia then and Eastern Kentucky. Yea ha. Think moved away from one of the safest spots here but shaky isles lots of fault lines and volcanoes up north.

 Woot 49 cases (53 yesterday) today second day in a row of a decline.


----------



## Cadence

Monday update for our district of somewhere between 8,500 and 9k students across 14 schools:

*STUDENT TOTALS REPORTED AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON, AUGUST 30*
_Active positive students: 160
Active quarantine students: 1,278_

*STAFF TOTALS REPORTED AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON, AUGUST 30*
_Staff positive cases: 22
Staff excluded: Not available_

Two middle schools and one grade school have gone all virtual.









						Latest tally of COVID-19 cases in Lexington Two schools
					

See district cases reported in our schools among students and staff, plus read student COVID protocols here




					www.lex2.org
				




Someone in a middle school in a neighboring district reports that their daughter was to be notified if they were supposed to go in to quarantine.  The school nurse was behind in calling because 9 different classrooms, the football team, and 5 school busses were all supposed to quarantine.


----------



## Cadence

New umbers from that neighboring district of 27k students:


----------



## Zardnaar

Interesting fact check on vaccine's.


----------



## Mirtek

Dannyalcatraz said:


> @Snarf Zagyg
> 
> I don’t think anywhere on earth is free from catastrophic natural disasters.  I was born in NOLA (hurricanes, floods), we moved to the PacNW (earthquakes, volcanoes, blizzards) and for half my life and counting, I’ve lived in one place or another in Tornado Alley.



Maybe no place is guaranteed 100% free, but in some those where they seem like much more usual occurrences than on other places.

Central Europe seems pretty stable. Yes, we unfortunately had the flood just recently, but such disasters are so rare, it's still seen and talked about as a century event (with discussion on whether climate change will increase the likelyhood to once every few decades).

But to having parts of the country being called "Tornade Alley" or preparing for "Hurricane Season" because well, it sucks but it's a season is something that's only known from the new as something happening far way. Not something you actually expect every year


----------



## Hussar

I keep seeing this Invermectine (sp) thing going on in the news and I just ... I just... words fail me.  

Just when I think we've hit rock bottom stupidity.  The absolute nadir of thought, people rise up, say, "hold my beer" and show me that nope, we have not yet plumbed the depths of blinding stupidity.

I can't even begin to wrap my head around the mindset that thinks this.


----------



## Mirtek

Hussar said:


> I keep seeing this Invermectine (sp) thing going on in the news and I just ... I just... words fail me.
> 
> Just when I think we've hit rock bottom stupidity.  The absolute nadir of thought, people rise up, say, "hold my beer" and show me that nope, we have not yet plumbed the depths of blinding stupidity.
> 
> I can't even begin to wrap my head around the mindset that thinks this.



Well, at least that falls under medicine, just one that should not be taken by humans.

In that light I say the bottom still belongs to the people ingesting chlorine bleach (and not just since Covid)


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> I can't even begin to wrap my head around the mindset that thinks this.




So, I read a little into the history of this to inform myself.  To state that history, I must mention some groups with political affiliations for people to understand the course of events.



Spoiler: with that disclaimer, the history...



There was a study, because early in the pandemic, they studied everything as a possible treatment.  No problem there.  It got a positive result that ivermectin worked against covid, but the statistics of the study were really weak, so that the result didn't really count.

There was another study, which looked like it had much better statistics... until you look at the data, and it starts looking very much like that data was fraudulently fabricated.  But, it was a study, with positive results.

Then comes the bit that drove the popularity of ivermectin as a covid treatment.  A group called "America's Frontline Doctors," founded by Simone Gold1, started pushing an untested cocktail containing hydrocychlorquine.  They held a press conference hosted and funded by a group called the American Tea Party Patriots, in which one of their main speakers was Stella Immanuel2.  

Later in the pandemic, they set up a website called SpeakWithAnMD, which provided telehealth medical consultations (for $90 + cost of drugs) - the workflow to get to a consultation _started_ with the question of which drug you wanted - hydroxychlorquine or ivermectin...



1. Simone Gold is politically active, and was arrested for entering the Capitol building on Jan 6.

2. Stella Immanuel is a doctor who has claimed gynecological problems come from having sex dreams of incubi and succubi.  She has claimed space alien DNA is used in medical treatments, that reptilian spirits and extraterrestrials run the US government, that the Illuminati are using witches to destroy the world though Harry Potter and Hannah Montana, and that scientists are creating a vaccine to stop people from being religious.



So, in a nutshell, for the general population, the mindset comes from the fact that someone they trust (because they match in political leanings) is telling them this is good for them, and everyone else is lying.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’ve been reading blurbs here & there about how deeply some of this stuff goes.  It’s jaw dropping.

Onesimus- a slave gifted to Cotton Mather (the one & only) by his congregants- is the one who talked about the African practice we call variolation as a ward against smallpox.  That helped Boston escape the worst ravages of an outbreak and made Ben Franklin a believer and was a factor in George Washington ordering his troops to be treated.  That set in motion a cycle of acceptance and pushback on the efficacy and purported dangers of public health anti-contagion efforts in the USA.

Fast forward to today, and we’re definitely in one of the troughs.  As I learned today, the whole thing on ivermectin “ropeworms”* was presaged by people doing coffee enemas experiencing this effect YEARS ago.  They didn’t learn ir accept the truth then, and survived to pass this misinformation along to other benighted souls.

Then there’s that whole disconnect of seeking treatment for COVID symptoms from the very people who were not to be trusted on vaccinations.  And fighting- sometimes literally- the healthcare workers when the COVID diagnosis is delivered.





* a reminder: “rope worms” are actually sloughed off intestinal lining


----------



## J.Quondam

Dannyalcatraz said:


> * a reminder: “rope worms” are actually sloughed off intestinal lining



Thanks, but that traumatized me enough the first time you mentioned it, I hadn't forgotten it.


----------



## Rabulias

J.Quondam said:


> Thanks, but that traumatized me enough the first time you mentioned it, I hadn't forgotten it.



Yeah, without a ::shudder:: emoji, this will have to do:


----------



## Cadence

Today's South Carolina Update as reported by The State newspaper:



> The Department of Health and Environmental Control reported 86 COVID-related deaths, bringing the statewide death toll to 10,684. It was the highest single-day death total reported since Feb. 14, when the agency recorded 87 COVID-related deaths.
> 
> The agency also added 5,152 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday. That brings the state’s COVID-19 case count to more than 740,000 [since the start of the pandemic].
> 
> At least 29,217 COVID-19 tests were conducted around the state for the new cases reported on Wednesday, with 17.3% coming back positive. At least 53.6% of the new cases reported were people aged 30 and under.
> 
> Children 10 and younger make up 16.2% of the new cases on Wednesday, while 24.1% of the cases were attributed to people between the ages of 11 and 20.  At the earlier height of the pandemic between December and February, only 5.8% of positive cases were kids 10 and under.






			https://www.thestate.com/news/coronavirus/article253922693.html
		


Note: South Carolina's population is estimated to be just 200k larger than New Zealand's (5.1 million vs. 4.9 million).


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Today's South Carolina Update as reported by The State newspaper:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.thestate.com/news/coronavirus/article253922693.html
> 
> 
> 
> Note: South Carolina's population is estimated to be just 200k larger than New Zealand's (5.1 million vs. 4.9 million).




 We has 75 cases yesterday. 

 Colorado very similar population and size.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> We has 75 cases yesterday.
> 
> Colorado very similar population and size.



Us having 12 more deaths reported than you had cases pretty much sums it all up.


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> So, in a nutshell, for the general population, the mindset comes from the fact that someone they trust (because they match in political leanings) is telling them this is good for them, and everyone else is lying



Well, sure, I can follow the train of events.  

What I cannot fathom is being so tied to politics that you will choose to believe people based on it.  I mean, I'll freely admit to being pretty left leaning.  Sure.  Guilty as charged.  But, that doesn't mean that I actually accept everything someone says just because I happen to buy into their economic policies.  It's the same thing with people who share memes on Facebook.  The first thing I do is hit up something like Snopes whenever I see a claim that is suspect.  But, people still regurgitate the same things over and over again.  My brother just posted a meme from 2001 :shock: about gun control in Australia, completely oblivious to the fact that not only were the claims totally bogus, but, were bogus twenty years ago.  

Like I said, just when folks seem to have hit rock bottom stupidity...


----------



## Zardnaar

Bought my first coffee in several weeks lockdown restrictions eased locally. Had to go to the supermarket and the cafes etc can do contact free takeaways. 

 May have bought a carrot cake that was basically a huge muffin.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> @Snarf Zagyg
> 
> I don’t think anywhere on earth is free from catastrophic natural disasters.  I was born in NOLA (hurricanes, floods), we moved to the PacNW (earthquakes, volcanoes, blizzards) and for half my life and counting, I’ve lived in one place or another in Tornado Alley.
> 
> That said, you couldn’t PAY me to live on the side of an active volcano like Mt. Etna.




As a Californian, I joke that the East Coast gets all the wind and the water, and we get all the earth and the fire.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> In the USA I figured safest place would be inland on a hill in a geographically stable place not beside a river. Somewhere in the NE Appalachia through to Vermont.




I think you need to account for both droughts and blizzards too, which those places are not immune to.


----------



## Ryujin

Thomas Shey said:


> I think you need to account for both droughts and blizzards too, which those places are not immune to.



And ice storms, for that matter.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> And ice storms, for that matter.




I'm an Angelino, so all that business of solid water falling from the sky blurs together to me. 

(Though we do get hail once in a while, but not like what places that get _real_ hail get).


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> I think you need to account for both droughts and blizzards too, which those places are not immune to.




 I think my criteria were. 

1. At least 10km from an active volcano.
2. No major fault lines nearby. 
3. At least 10m above any nearby rivers. 
4. Convenient hill nearby if coastal. 
5. No extreme weather. 
6. No offshore volcanos or shelves that can generate tsunami's.


----------



## Zardnaar

Boring stuff. I don't recommend watching much more than 2-10 minutes but it's for comparison purposes. We get these almost daily


49 cases today only 7 were community spread as such. Of those 7 cases they had 9 points of contact mostly supermarkets. 

Basic idea is break the transmission chains. And clear communication.

 Luna's not so good at social distancing. Mask use not to bad.


----------



## Garthanos

Courts told him his tirade against masks in schools was not legal I read 







Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s another showdown brewing in Florida. Like Gov. Abbott in Texas, Gov. DeSantis issued orders against mask mandates and vaccine passports.
> 
> Well, Disney has decided you’re not getting in one of their cruise ships without a vaccine passport. And Florida is one of their major port states. Oh yeah, plus they have amusement parks there, too. IOW, Disney, a large American company and a major force in Florida’s economy is basically telling DeSantis to take a hike.
> 
> So the big question is: how much will he try to flex on the House of Mouse? If he can’t force Disney to comply, his executive orders fall apart; the bans cannot hold.
> 
> The slouching rough beast heading his way looks very mouselike…


----------



## GreyLord

Just a heads up...on disasters...

Lightning likes to strike the tallest object around...though not limited to just that, it's more attracted to the highest object than to other objects...

Tornadoes like to hit the top of hills and skip from top to top.  They can go down somewhat, but generally skip over valleys more than hill tops.  Hill top houses in tornado country may not be the smartest thing.  Of course there's always the chance they get winding through a valley as well...so...

Hope you have a deep enough tornado cellar or basement...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Garthanos said:


> Courts told him his tirade against masks in schools was not legal I read



And he’s not changing his rhetoric or course of action.  Basically, contempt of court on Florida’s daily news.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Oh, and by the way, say hello to Mu.








						The WHO is tracking a new COVID-19 variant called Mu that might be able to evade immunity from vaccines and previous infections
					

The WHO says the Mu variant is now in 39 countries, and has a "constellation of mutations" that might allow it to evade vaccine immunity.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Oh, and by the way, say hello to Mu.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The WHO is tracking a new COVID-19 variant called Mu that might be able to evade immunity from vaccines and previous infections
> 
> 
> The WHO says the Mu variant is now in 39 countries, and has a "constellation of mutations" that might allow it to evade vaccine immunity.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




 Mostly in South America iirc

 Kick in the love spuds. Maybe delta being so virulent has positive side effect


----------



## Ryujin

Thomas Shey said:


> I'm an Angelino, so all that business of solid water falling from the sky blurs together to me.
> 
> (Though we do get hail once in a while, but not like what places that get _real_ hail get).



An ice storm is something a bit different. The water isn't solid when it's falling, but it certainly becomes solid when it hits. The weight of the ice damages trees, brings down power lines, and is just generally crappy for everyone. (Image source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ice-storm-1998-1.4469977 )


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

In order to combat the pandemic, and/or the rise of various scary variants that are all Greek to me ... (quick- is "Tonight we dine in hell" from a movie, or Taco Bell's latest advertising slogan?), I have decided to take the following steps:

1. Cower in whimpering fear.

2. Drink.  

3. Curse the gods.

4. Provide handy guides to bingeable viewing as we all prepare for the inevitable-








						Snarf's Superior Syllabus for Binge Viewing: New Lockdown Edition (Part 1)
					

Delta delta delta, can Snarf help ya help ya help ya?  That's right, as we round the bend toward Labor Day in the United States, Labour Day in Upper United States (sometimes referred to as, uh, Canadia?) and September in the remainder of the god-forsaken parts of the world that believe...




					www.enworld.org
				




5. Donate money to good causes to combat the feeling of helplessness.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> An ice storm is something a bit different. The water isn't solid when it's falling, but it certainly becomes solid when it hits. The weight of the ice damages trees, brings down power lines, and is just generally crappy for everyone. (Image source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ice-storm-1998-1.4469977 )




Oh, I knew it was different (though not the details) it was mostly just noting that Los Angeles isn't completely unknown to solid water falling from the sky, but a lot of fine details that are routine knowledge elsewhere can be kind of opaque to local natives who may have never seen it in their lives (I've encountered snow and hail for example going up in the mountains, but sleet is nothing but a theoretical idea to me).


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> Oh, I knew it was different (though not the details) it was mostly just noting that Los Angeles isn't completely unknown to solid water falling from the sky, but a lot of fine details that are routine knowledge elsewhere can be kind of opaque to local natives who may have never seen it in their lives (I've encountered snow and hail for example going up in the mountains, but sleet is nothing but a theoretical idea to me).




New Englanders have seventeen words for various forms of solid water falling from the sky...
... a dozen of them break the Grandma rule.


----------



## Cadence

Yesterday around noon the provost announced classrooms would start getting HEPA filters.  It was worth a two-minute interruption this morning...


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> New Englanders have seventeen words for various forms of solid water falling from the sky...
> ... a dozen of them break the Grandma rule.



You should hear the Quebecois and ALL of them break the Grandma Rule, though they are frequently also used by Quebecois grandmothers


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> You should hear the Quebecois and ALL of them break the Grandma Rule, though they are frequently also used by Quebecois grandmothers




Yeah, but Quebec gets something like 124 inches of snow a year.  I image they think of "snow" as a four letter word.

Yes, I'm aware the French for snow is _neige_, and has five letters. That's the joke, silly people.


----------



## Cadence

Columbia, SC school mask mandate shot down by state supreme court for going against budget proviso that barred any state provided funds from having anything to do with it.  I'm waiting for someone to point out that TX might have found a way to have citizen enforcers of things...



			https://www.thestate.com/news/coronavirus/article253913798.html


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Yeah, but Quebec gets something like 124 inches of snow a year.  I image they think of "snow" as a four letter word.
> 
> Yes, I'm aware the French for snow is _neige_, and has five letters. That's the joke, silly people.



I’m sure the bilingual Québécois use the English word “snow” as a curse word.

As in “French french french french french *SNOW* french french french!”

(Pardon my French.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Who speaks French anymore?


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> I'm waiting for someone to point out that TX might have found a way to have citizen enforcers of things...




Yeah, I don't expect many to try that route until the Texas law is tested.  The topic it deals with aside, it raises issues of "legal standing" that may not pass muster, and that even folks who like that law may not want to see made into precedent once they think it through.

You know how as GMs, we say, what's good for the PCS is good for the monsters?  This holds here.  For example, it is possible that a well-worded variation on the theme could allow, say, every citizen of a state to sue oil companies for damages from climate change, and not be responsible for the legal fees if they lose.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m sure the bilingual Québécois use the English word “snow” as a curse word.
> 
> As in “French french french french french *SNOW* french french french!”
> 
> (Pardon my French.)



You should hear New Brunswick "French" some time. At least half English


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> Yeah, I don't expect many to try that route until the Texas law is tested.  The topic it deals with aside, it raises issues of "legal standing" that may not pass muster, and that even folks who like that law may not want to see made into precedent once they think it through.
> 
> You know how as GMs, we say, what's good for the PCS is good for the monsters?  This holds here.  For example, it is possible that a well-worded variation on the theme could allow, say, every citizen of a state to sue oil companies for damages from climate change, and not be responsible for the legal fees if they lose.




And they could do it without having to pay any costs if they lose (if they follow the TX model).  I'm waiting for NY, IL, or CA to rush a gun law through modeled after it (just to get the SCOTUS to take the whole issue up faster).


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Ryujin said:


> You should hear New Brunswick "French" some time. At least half English



My favourite multilingual story is when I was training in a martial art in Japan. I made friends with some nice Mexicans, and we decided to train together the next class. It went something like this:

"You training solo or with amigos?"

"Solo."

"So you wanna meet at the dojo manana to train?"

"Hai, so desu. Let's meet at the dojo manana. It'll be mucho genki."


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> My favourite multilingual story is when I was training in a martial art in Japan. I made friends with some nice Mexicans, and we decided to train together the next class. It went something like this:
> 
> "You training solo or with amigos?"
> 
> "Solo."
> 
> "So you wanna meet at the dojo manana to train?"
> 
> "Hai, so desu. Let's meet at the dojo manana. It'll be mucho genki."



My favourite is when I worked in the parking lot of the Toronto airport. We were told that no one could park on the roof, unless literally everything else was full. We would constantly have people take the chains down so that they could go up there to watch the planes. Pedestrian traffic was fine; just not cars.

So I go up there on my regular walk of the lot and see that the chain is down. There's a high-dollar car with Quebec plates, parked up there, and a guy in a suit is watching the planes. I went up to him and asked him to move his car. He puts on a crap eating grin and (in Quebecois) tells me that I should go somewhere and fornicate with myself. I replied (in English) that was a physical impossibility and he still had to move his car. Surprised Pikachu face, before that was a thing, 20 seconds of staring back and forth, then he got into his car and drove off the level.


----------



## Rabulias

Cadence said:


> And they could do it without having to pay any costs if they lose (if they follow the TX model).  I'm waiting for NY, IL, or CA to rush a gun law through modeled after it (just to get the SCOTUS to take the whole issue up faster).



I would love to see a similar model used to sue people for spreading lies and disinformation, whether about diseases or elections.


----------



## Zardnaar

Today's cases 28 seems to be heading down last few days. 

  15 days of lockdown so far I think.

 Wasn't pretty taking the recycling bin out with beer and wine bottles.


----------



## Eltab

Rabulias said:


> I would love to see a similar model used to sue people for spreading lies and disinformation, whether about diseases or elections.



That would have the salutary side-effect of getting rid of "My opponent is a monster and a jerk!" political ads.  Make the politicians explain "I am an awesome guy / gal because" ... hopefully they can complete that sentence.


----------



## Cadence

Our local school district is going with the state health organization and bucking the governor...









						Lexington Two mask requirement expires
					

The temporary measure expired on October 31, though masks will still be required for bus riders, in keeping with a federal health requirement




					www.lex2.org


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Man that Delta is bad. We are at nearly 80% of 12+ vaccinated and we _still_ have daily cases near as high as at peak pre-vaccine. Of course _most_ of the cases are unvaccinated, (but not all.) I shudder to imagine what it would be like without the vaccines.


----------



## Thomas Shey

FitzTheRuke said:


> Man that Delta is bad. We are at nearly 80% of 12+ vaccinated and we _still_ have daily cases near as high as at peak pre-vaccine. Of course _most_ of the cases are unvaccinated, (but not all.) I shudder to imagine what it would be like without the vaccines.




There's been some indications cases may be even bad among the vaccinated, its just that among them its much, much more likely to be mild or even asymptomatic.  I was just hearing a news story about a hospital that tests regularly that found at the peak something like 95% of their vaccinated workers detected as COVID-positive at one point or another.  However _none_ of them showed  a severe enough case to need to be hospitalized themselves, and the majority only knew they had COVID because o the tests.

This is probably related to the apparent situation that even vaccinated individuals tend to develop COVID colonies in their nasal passages (which is why they can still be infectious) given how COVID testing is normally done.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Thomas Shey said:


> There's been some indications cases may be even bad among the vaccinated, its just that among them its much, much more likely to be mild or even asymptomatic.  I was just hearing a news story about a hospital that tests regularly that found at the peak something like 95% of their vaccinated workers detected as COVID-positive at one point or another.  However _none_ of them showed  a severe enough case to need to be hospitalized themselves, and the majority only knew they had COVID because o the tests.
> 
> This is probably related to the apparent situation that even vaccinated individuals tend to develop COVID colonies in their nasal passages (which is why they can still be infectious) given how COVID testing is normally done.



This is probably an oversimplification, but it sounds like a lot of vaccinated people are effectively immune (as long as their own immune systems are strong enough) but they can carry it around in their sinuses and test positive for it from there. It makes sense that even if quite a few vaccinated are getting it, the numbers would point to the unvaccinated, who are getting worse symptoms (and therefore more tests) more frequently.


----------



## J.Quondam

FitzTheRuke said:


> This is probably an oversimplification, but it sounds like a lot of vaccinated people are effectively immune (as long as their own immune systems are strong enough) but they can carry it around in their sinuses and test positive for it from there. It makes sense that even if quite a few vaccinated are getting it, the numbers would point to the unvaccinated, who are getting worse symptoms (and therefore more tests) more frequently.



You know, I really wouldn't be too surprised if the unvaxxed knuckleheads (and their vile "information" sources) start accusing the vaccinated people of being the "real" spreaders.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

_They already have_.  We’re “sloughing off virus” because of the vaccines, therefore unsafe to be around, thus, justifying our exclusion from certain businesses and events.


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> This is probably an oversimplification, but it sounds like a lot of vaccinated people are effectively immune (as long as their own immune systems are strong enough) but they can carry it around in their sinuses and test positive for it from there.




Immunity isn't an all-or-nothing thing.

This is a place to remember the difference between infection and illness.  With the vaccine, some folks can still get infected, but those infections do not cause much illness - meaning, you don't have significant symptoms.  In such a breakthrough case, isn't that you just "test positive" - you _are infected_, and contagious.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> Immunity isn't an all-or-nothing thing.
> 
> This is a place to remember the difference between infection and illness.  With the vaccine, some folks can still get infected, but those infections do not cause much illness - meaning, you don't have significant symptoms.  In such a breakthrough case, isn't that you just "test positive" - you _are infected_, and contagious.



Right. I get that. It's what used to be termed "carriers". It's not that they're not infected, it's just that they're not bothered by being infected - the "lucky" ones.

I keep arguing with one of my old best friends on Facebook who keeps posting anti-vax memes while saying that he's "Not anti-vax" but just "asking questions". I just said to him, "So ask questions in your own words and stop spreading _intended misinformation_". Sigh.


----------



## Thomas Shey

FitzTheRuke said:


> This is probably an oversimplification, but it sounds like a lot of vaccinated people are effectively immune (as long as their own immune systems are strong enough) but they can carry it around in their sinuses and test positive for it from there. It makes sense that even if quite a few vaccinated are getting it, the numbers would point to the unvaccinated, who are getting worse symptoms (and therefore more tests) more frequently.




That's pretty much my take on it, too.

I mean, honestly, if you're vaccinated and don't work in an environment where you get tested regularly, and catch Delta but because of your vaccination you have no symptoms or such mild ones you write it off to allergies, how would you know?


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> _They already have_.  We’re “sloughing off virus” because of the vaccines, therefore unsafe to be around, thus, justifying our exclusion from certain businesses and events.




Which, of course, requires either an extremely confused or deliberately malign understanding of how even killed virus vaccines work, let along the fact at least the majority of the COVID vaccines _are not killed virus_ drugs.


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> I keep arguing with one of my old best friends on Facebook who keeps posting anti-vax memes while saying that he's "Not anti-vax" but just "asking questions". I just said to him, "So ask questions in your own words and stop spreading _intended misinformation_". Sigh.




Ooof.  That's a pain.  The last person I ran into who went that route I had to tell, "If you are just asking questions, why aren't you listening to the answers?  If you are arguing, you aren't asking."


----------



## Garthanos

FitzTheRuke said:


> Man that Delta is bad. We are at nearly 80% of 12+ vaccinated and we _still_ have daily cases near as high as at peak pre-vaccine. Of course _most_ of the cases are unvaccinated, (but not all.) I shudder to imagine what it would be like without the vaccines.



Well what is the vaccination rate in Florida... hmmmm


----------



## Ryujin

Thomas Shey said:


> Which, of course, requires either an extremely confused or deliberately malign understanding of how even killed virus vaccines work, let along the fact at least the majority of the COVID vaccines _are not killed virus_ drugs.



Even otherwise intelligent people are being flim-flammed. I tried to explain why the claim that people's bloodstreams were being clogged with reproduced "viral spikes" from the mRNA vaccines wasn't possible, only to have a dozen or more usually reasonable people shout me down "because articles!" I just withdrew from the conversation.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Immunity isn't an all-or-nothing thing.
> 
> This is a place to remember the difference between infection and illness.  With the vaccine, some folks can still get infected, but those infections do not cause much illness - meaning, you don't have significant symptoms.  In such a breakthrough case, isn't that you just "test positive" - you _are infected_, and contagious.



And even those are ahem within predicted effects like the top 20 to 6 percent ... people act like the vaccine not always fully protecting is a surprise or some failed promise.  "You said I would be immune" they call it immunization all the old vaccines worked that way.  /sigh


----------



## J.Quondam

Ryujin said:


> Even otherwise intelligent people are being flim-flammed. I tried to explain why the claim that people's bloodstreams were being clogged with reproduced "viral spikes" from the mRNA vaccines wasn't possible, only to have a dozen or more usually reasonable people shout me down "because articles!" I just withdrew from the conversation.



Ugh, that's the worst: _"I researched it on the internet!"_

Honestly, I doubt most are being truly flim-flammed. Many of these people -- _especially_ the "otherwise intelligent" ones -- are doing it intentionally, perhaps to save face and/or maybe just to toe the party line, peer-pressure, or whatever. The problem with the brightest wingnuts is that they often know enough, and are confident enough, to delude themselves into convincing themselves that they're right. And then that spreads to those who thrust them.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Here’s one of the big reasons why the USA is in the situation it is in, vis a vis the pandemic:








						Tucker Carlson Says People Who Try to Limit the Spread of COVID-19 Should Be 'Punished' (Video)
					

Fox News host also supports forging documents in order to avoid being vaccinated against the deadly illness




					www.thewrap.com
				




Summary: Tucker Carlson- one of the most watched people in American Media- went on air calling for the punishment of those who want to impose and enforce anti-pandemic measures while simultaneously claiming falsifying Covid vaccination records is not a crime.

For the record, earlier in the pandemic:


> The FBI urging the public to not post photos of your vaccine card to social media websites pointing to "personal information could be stolen to commit fraud."
> 
> In a statement the FBI categorized the unauthorized use of an official government agency's seal (such as HHS or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)) as a crime. Citing this as an act that could be "punishable under Title 18 United States Code, Section 1017, and other applicable laws," and added "do not buy fake vaccine cards, do not make your own vaccine cards, and do not fill-in blank vaccination record cards with false information."




So, not only is he using his power as a media titan to resist efforts to shorten the pandemic and fight Covid, he is making bald-faced lies about the legality of certain actions.

This is NOT an uneducated man.  This is a privileged sociopath in a position of power.


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This is NOT an uneducated man.  This is a privileged sociopath in a position of power.



And the defense that Fox gave to the courts that no reasonable person would believe Carlson and that he has no credibility flies right in the face of what they actually expect of him.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Here’s one of the big reasons why the USA is in the situation it is in, vis a vis the pandemic:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tucker Carlson Says People Who Try to Limit the Spread of COVID-19 Should Be 'Punished' (Video)
> 
> 
> Fox News host also supports forging documents in order to avoid being vaccinated against the deadly illness
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thewrap.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Summary: Tucker Carlson- one of the most watched people in American Media- went on air calling for the punishment of those who want to impose and enforce anti-pandemic measures while simultaneously claiming falsifying Covid vaccination records is not a crime.
> 
> For the record, earlier in the pandemic:
> 
> 
> So, not only is he using his power as a media titan to resist efforts to shorten the pandemic and fight Covid, he is making bald-faced lies about the legality of certain actions.
> 
> This is NOT an uneducated man.  This is a privileged sociopath in a position of power.



Given that Fox has enforced a "must be vaccinated in order to work" mandate, it's also highly probable that Carlson is fully vaccinated, himself. So why all of the FUD? _Because it makes him money!_ I keep forgetting the difference between psychopath and sociopath but yeah, one of those.


----------



## J.Quondam

Ryujin said:


> I keep forgetting the difference between psychopath and sociopath but yeah, one of those.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Here’s one of the big reasons why the USA is in the situation it is in, vis a vis the pandemic:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tucker Carlson Says People Who Try to Limit the Spread of COVID-19 Should Be 'Punished' (Video)
> 
> 
> Fox News host also supports forging documents in order to avoid being vaccinated against the deadly illness
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thewrap.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Summary: Tucker Carlson- one of the most watched people in American Media- went on air calling for the punishment of those who want to impose and enforce anti-pandemic measures while simultaneously claiming falsifying Covid vaccination records is not a crime.
> 
> For the record, earlier in the pandemic:
> 
> 
> So, not only is he using his power as a media titan to resist efforts to shorten the pandemic and fight Covid, he is making bald-faced lies about the legality of certain actions.
> 
> This is NOT an uneducated man.  This is a privileged sociopath in a position of power.



 Apparently he has been vaccinated himself.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

I have found this to be helpful…

It’s not safe for work (language)

EDIT- Apparenty, I can't even link to it, given the url has a naughty word! The more you know.

It's on the McSweeney's front page. 









						McSweeney’s Internet Tendency
					






					www.mcsweeneys.net
				




The article is _Oh my effing god, get the effing vaccine already, you effing effs._


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ryujin said:


> Given that Fox has enforced a "must be vaccinated in order to work" mandate, it's also highly probable that Carlson is fully vaccinated, himself. So why all of the FUD? _Because it makes him money!_ I keep forgetting the difference between psychopath and sociopath but yeah, one of those.



Not probable- *necessary*.  Remember, he just did a stint broadcasting from Hungary.  He had to be vaccinated to make that trip.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

billd91 said:


> And the defense that Fox gave to the courts that no reasonable person would believe Carlson and that he has no credibility flies right in the face of what they actually expect of him.




That's just... I can't even. Man, I hate that guy.


----------



## Zardnaar

20 new cases today with one death (27 total). 90 year old women died. 

 Looks like we might be in single numbers again 1 case of delta bloomed into 700+.


----------



## Hussar

So, we're currently in our worst wave yet of virus.  Yet, the government wants to start easing travel restrictions as early as October.  

Oh, and just had our first confirmed case of Mu.  

I think I'm going back to bed now.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Hussar said:


> So, we're currently in our worst wave yet of virus.  Yet, the government wants to start easing travel restrictions as early as October.
> 
> Oh, and just had our first confirmed case of Mu.
> 
> I think I'm going back to bed now.



Dare I ask... what is Mu?


----------



## J.Quondam

FitzTheRuke said:


> Dare I ask... what is Mu?



The Mu variant of covid.








						Health officials "keeping a very close eye" on COVID-19 Mu variant
					

The World Health Organization has dubbed Mu a "variant of interest," but the U.S. says it is not "an immediate threat" for the time being.




					www.cbsnews.com


----------



## FitzTheRuke

J.Quondam said:


> The Mu variant of covid.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Health officials "keeping a very close eye" on COVID-19 Mu variant
> 
> 
> The World Health Organization has dubbed Mu a "variant of interest," but the U.S. says it is not "an immediate threat" for the time being.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cbsnews.com



Oh I figured as much, I guess I meant "what's its deal compared to the others". (I'll check out your link for the answer). 

Aside: Why'd they jump all the way to Mu? Or have they already identified Epsilon to Lambda, but those variants aren't worth talking about, being relative wimps?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FitzTheRuke said:


> Oh I figured as much, I guess I meant "what's its deal compared to the others". (I'll check out your link for the answer).



Basically, vaccines may not be as effective against it.


----------



## J.Quondam

FitzTheRuke said:


> Oh I figured as much, I guess I meant "what's its deal compared to the others". (I'll check out your link for the answer).



AH, okay. Yeah, so far as I understand, it's just a potential big one they're watching out for. It's new, so it might not respond to the treatmetns we've developed.

edit: Yeah, what @Dannyalcatraz  said!


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Basically, vaccines may not be as effective against it.





J.Quondam said:


> AH, okay. Yeah, so far as I understand, it's just a potential big one they're watching out for. It's new, so it might not respond to the treatmetns we've developed.




Just what we need!


----------



## Cadence

So, we get one to practice with masking, but don't need the masks quite as much for younger folks.  Then we get one that really needs masks for lots of folks, but the vaccine and another treatment (if you can get it) help.   I wish I thought all that practicing with masking and distancing meant folks in the US would just do it when a variant that really need it comes around...


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Basically, vaccines may not be as effective against it.






FitzTheRuke said:


> Just what we need!




To be clear, "_But there isn't a lot of clinical data to suggest that. It is mostly laboratory in vitro data," he added. "...We don't consider it an immediate threat right now._"


----------



## nedjer

Like most of those commenting on virology these days the closest I have to a relevant qualification is my Cycling Proficiency Test, but it well.

When hospitals are overflowing with people with a group loyalty/ lack of critical thinking skills that requires them to gorge on horse medicine that causes the shitters, delirium and blindness . . . seems a fair bet that's an act of faith and trying to read papers/ journals to keep up with the woo will only lead to them sharpening their own counter arguments. Imo point at vaccine successes, link to medical advice and exit stage left.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

nedjer said:


> When hospitals are overflowing with people with a group loyalty/ lack of critical thinking skills that requires them to gorge on horse medicine that causes the shitters, delirium and blindness . . .



But Joe Rogen used it to cure his case of covid in only 3 days!

 (That's my sarcasm, although a lot of people seem to believe it)


----------



## nedjer




----------



## Mallus

FitzTheRuke said:


> But Joe Rogen used it to cure his case of covid in only 3 days!



He’s the American Jesus! May God have mercy on our souls…


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Mallus said:


> He’s the American Jesus! May God have mercy on our souls…



I want to give you a laugh reaction, (I came close) but it's really not funny, is it?


----------



## Eltab

FitzTheRuke said:


> But Joe Rogen used it to cure his case of covid in only 3 days!
> 
> (That's my sarcasm, although a lot of people seem to believe it)



Rogan took a cocktail of stuff (including ivermectin and an antibody treatment).  _Something_ in there helped him kick COVID quickly ... but from only one data point we cannot tell which ingredient(s).


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Eltab said:


> Rogan took a cocktail of stuff (including ivermectin and an antibody treatment).  _Something_ in there helped him kick COVID quickly ... but from only one data point we cannot tell which ingredient(s).




No. You don't know that anything in there did anything.

It's entirely possible and likely that his particular case of COVID _would have happened in exactly the same way _in the absence of this "cocktail."

This is what is so frustrating about these claims; he could've just eaten a chocolate bar, and said, "Hey, look all you gullible people, CHOCOLATE cures the COVID!" 

It's why actual science relies on things like double-blind studies, and not individual claims.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> No. You don't know that anything in there did anything.
> 
> It's entirely possible and likely that his particular case of COVID _would have happened in exactly the same way _in the absence of this "cocktail."




Correct.  What Rogan says about his personal experience is an anecdote.  An anecdote is not meaningful data.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> Correct.  What Rogan says about his personal experience is an anecdote.  An anecdote is not meaningful data.



In particular because we have no way of knowing if any of his claims are remotely true at all. I'm not calling Rogen a liar, necessarily, but his whole schtick isn't exactly done out of the goodness of his heart, is it? It's all about the likes/clicks/follows/etc (AKA the $).


----------



## J.Quondam

FitzTheRuke said:


> In particular because we have no way of knowing if any of his claims are remotely true at all. I'm not calling Rogen a liar, necessarily, but his whole schtick isn't exactly done out of the goodness of his heart, is it? It's all about the likes/clicks/follows/etc (AKA the $).



This.
Anything said by a commentator / pundit / op-ed journalists / etc is immediately suspect, since their livelihood is entirely based on saying what their audience _wants_ to hear. If they didn't do that, after all, they wouldn't be successful opinionators.

ETA: Of course, good such journalists cite reliable sources, and amplify information from real experts rather than snake-oil salesmen. It's the quality of those sources that make the difference between good, truthful punditry and the cynical, dishonest crap.


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This is NOT an uneducated man.  This is a privileged sociopath in a position of power.



Perfect characterization


----------



## Garthanos

FitzTheRuke said:


> Oh I figured as much, I guess I meant "what's its deal compared to the others". (I'll check out your link for the answer).
> 
> Aside: Why'd they jump all the way to Mu? Or have they already identified Epsilon to Lambda, but those variants aren't worth talking about, being relative wimps?



yes Lamda has been around a while...


----------



## Garthanos

FitzTheRuke said:


> I'm not calling Rogen a liar, necessarily,



Oh bite the bullet man... it's pretty established. (LOL)


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> It’s not safe for work (language)



 Written by a woman with no more f-s to give, because she put them all in the essay.  Every last one of them.  She even went into he pantry, and found a old jar of f-s, and sprinkled them all over the piece.


----------



## Garthanos

Snarf Zagyg said:


> No. You don't know that anything in there did anything.
> 
> It's entirely possible and likely that his particular case of COVID _would have happened in exactly the same way _in the absence of this "cocktail."
> 
> This is what is so frustrating about these claims; he could've just eaten a chocolate bar, and said, "Hey, look all you gullible people, CHOCOLATE cures the COVID!"
> 
> It's why actual science relies on things like double-blind studies, and not individual claims.



Oooooh so wonderful your response, _Bowing profusely_


----------



## Imaculata

So this happened in Canada...


----------



## Ryujin

Imaculata said:


> So this happened in Canada...



Yes, we have our idiots as well.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Ryujin said:


> Yes, we have our ipadiots as well.



We do. We've been having anti-vax-protests in Vancouver that have been picketing hospitals, including stopping ambulances from being able to get through to emergency, harassing nurses, and getting in the way of cancer patients trying to get their chemo. It's disgusting.

One of the many dumb things about it is, the freaking Hospitals have nothing to do with pandemic policy! Go picket parliament, you dumbasses! Leave the people who are trying to help (or trying to get help) alone!


----------



## Garthanos

Ryujin said:


> Yes, we have our idiots as well.



The us just seems to have more


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Garthanos said:


> The us just seems to have more



US has more EVERYTHING. But yes. I hate to say it, but I feel that we (Canada) wouldn't even HAVE anti-vaxers if we weren't constantly consuming US media (aka propaganda).


----------



## J.Quondam

Yeah, the propaganda is _really_ out of control.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

FitzTheRuke said:


> US has more EVERYTHING. But yes. I hate to say it, but I feel that we (Canada) wouldn't even HAVE anti-vaxers if we weren't constantly consuming US media (aka propaganda).




In fairness, y'all have made us poor Americans believe that every vaguely-futuristic city and/or DC-universe city looks like Vancouver or Toronto.


----------



## Garthanos

FitzTheRuke said:


> US has more EVERYTHING. But yes. I hate to say it, but I feel that we (Canada) wouldn't even HAVE anti-vaxers if we weren't constantly consuming US media (aka propaganda).



about half of our populous thinks politics == entertainment AND loyalty is the greatest virtue.


J.Quondam said:


> Yeah, the propaganda is _really_ out of control.



ever since a president said wait we have to quash the fairness doctrine its preventing propaganda, it has been very bad


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Garthanos said:


> The us just seems to have more



It’s “farce” of numbers.


----------



## Ryujin

Snarf Zagyg said:


> In fairness, y'all have made us poor Americans believe that every vaguely-futuristic city and/or DC-universe city looks like Vancouver or Toronto.



Or even just the posh stuff. I think that the Xavier School for Gifted Children was Casa Loma, which is a mansion in Toronto. It was definitely the scene where Lucas Lee (Chris Evans) was shooting his movie in "Scott Pilgrim vs. The World."

My film making friends are pretty annoyed at how many times Vancouver fills in for Seattle


----------



## Ryujin

Garthanos said:


> about half of our populous thinks politics == entertainment AND loyalty is the greatest virtue.
> 
> ever since a president said wait we have to quash the fairness doctrine its preventing propaganda, it has been very bad



When courts rule that people who appear on cable _news_ channels can't be held to a standard of truth in reporting, there's a definite issue.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ryujin said:


> When courts rule that people who appear on cable _news_ channels can't be held to a standard of truth in reporting, there's a definite issue.



Well, one loophole is that Fox News, despite its name, isn’t purely news.  Neither are any of the other 24hr news channels.

I should point out that i think Fox & Tucker got off lightly in that case.  I don’t think Fox’s attorneys’ assertion that legally, “no reasonable person” would believe him passes a sniff test.  

Either that, or they’ve just provided the core winning argument for vastly scaling up the USA’s mental health care system.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well, one loophole is that Fox News, despite its name, isn’t purely news.  Neither are any of the other 24hr news channels.



And the problem, there, is the lack of clear delineation between what is news, and what is opinion on those "news channels."


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Either that, or they’ve just provided the core winning argument for vastly scaling up the USA’s mental health care system.




Well, we could ALL use some scaling up of mental heath care. I mean, we always could since the dawn of time, but now is no exception. Perhaps moreso than, say, 20+ years ago. Is it weird that the 90's seem like the most relaxed decade looking back? I think it's weird.


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> Well, we could ALL use some scaling up of mental heath care. I mean, we always could since the dawn of time, but now is no exception. Perhaps moreso than, say, 20+ years ago. Is it weird that the 90's seem like the most relaxed decade looking back? I think it's weird.



In Toronto, we still have people roaming the streets and homeless as a result of decisions made in the '90s. We could _definitely_ use some ramping-up for mental health services.


----------



## Garthanos

Federal mental health care facilities were also closed by I think the same president so... ahem.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Ryujin said:


> In Toronto, we still have people roaming the streets and homeless as a result of decisions made in the '90s. We could _definitely_ use some ramping-up for mental health services.



Except the ones that back-packed their way out here to live on _our_ streets! (I am entirely sympathetic to them - at least they can survive the winter here). We closed our facilities around that time too, and turfed patients out onto the streets. I honestly think that mental health is the number one thing that we (as a society) should be putting far more money/time/attention into. We're failing hard on it.


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> Except the ones that back-packed their way out here to live on _our_ streets! (I am entirely sympathetic to them - at least they can survive the winter here). We closed our facilities around that time too, and turfed patients out onto the streets. I honestly think that mental health is the number one thing that we (as a society) should be putting far more money/time/attention into. We're failing hard on it.



I don't think that many made there way there, from here, though there's surely a little migration. Major cities like Vancouver and Toronto tend to draw people from the surrounding areas, due to opportunities and population density. I've met people on Toronto's streets from as far away in Ontario as Thunder Bay, North Bay, and Ottawa, though I've also run into more than a few from various parts of the United States over my 20+ years working in the downtown core. A place like Sudbury just doesn't have the facilities for the homeless that a place like Toronto does, just by virtue of the tax base.


----------



## Umbran

Folks.  Politics.  Please.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Folks.  Politics.  Please.



Apologies. I thought that the conversation was general enough to avoid specific politics. Stepping back.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Apologies. I thought that the conversation was general enough to avoid specific politics. Stepping back.




Someone blamed a particular President for things that are not directly related to Covid or gaming.  That's a sign of being off the rails.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Someone blamed a particular President for things that are not directly related to Covid or gaming.  That's a sign of being off the rails.



I missed that. Got it.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> Someone blamed a particular President for things that are not directly related to Covid or gaming.  That's a sign of being off the rails.




Oh yeah, I guess we encouraged that. Sorry. For a second there I thought you were saying that calling for better mental health support was political (though I suppose in some circles...)

(That was a joke that was probably a little political itself. I'll cut it out now, I promise!)


----------



## Zardnaar

Had a look at reddit for recovering Q anon types or people knowing them. 

 Completely crazy mostly lacking here. Generally avoid social media very limited subreddits eg Stellaris or Fallout 4 or r/New Zealand. 

Avoid Twitter like the plague. 

 It's just easier.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Zardnaar said:


> Had a look at reddit for recovering Q anon types or people knowing them.
> 
> Completely crazy mostly lacking here. Generally avoid social media very limited subreddits eg Stellaris or Fallout 4 or r/New Zealand.
> 
> Avoid Twitter like the plague.
> 
> It's just easier.




"Avoid Twitter like the because it's a plague."


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Snarf Zagyg said:


> "Avoid Twitter like the because it's a plague."



Which is why I’ve kept 6+ feet away from it at all possible times, and wash my hands in the event of unavoidable contact.


----------



## Zardnaar

Twitter seems pointless for me. Life's supposed to be fun.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Which is why I’ve kept 6+ feet away from it at all possible times, and wash my hands in the event of unavoidable contact.



I generally want to rinse my eyes in event of contact, given that Twitter is a visual medium.


----------



## Zardnaar

20 cases today country is dropping to level 2 so stuff can reopen. 

 Except Auckland which is level 4. Level 3 is social distancing in things like restaurants. Level 4 not much is open.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

So... our provincial government is implementing a "vaccine passport" where you will have to show proof of at least one shot (via a phone app) to enter a restaurant, theatre, cinema, sporting event, etc.

There is a LOT of pushback against this. The reasonable complaint (as a FLGS owner, I understand this one) is that it is left up to the individual business/event to enforce it. (Which means, among other things, that an 18-year old usher at the movies may have to explain to an adult anti-vaxxer why he can't go to Bond until he takes his shot.)

Personally, I applaud the intent, but I dunno how well it's gonna work out. (Myself, I might consider allowing D&D or Friday Night Magic back in the store, using the passport, but that will depend on overall case counts heading back down, which right now, they are not what I'd call good, even with a high vaccination rate.)


----------



## Hussar

Watched the closing ceremonies for the Paraolympics last night.  Beautiful show.  But, what got me was toward the end, they handed things off to Paris where they are running the 2024 Paraolympics.  It was so surreal.

In Japan, every.. single... person was masked.  No crowd in attendance, the stadium was empty save for the performers and the athletes.  ((And, well, the small army of television crew and whatnot, you get the point))  Switch to Paris and there's a crowd of tens of thousands all jammed together near the Eiffel tower, and not a single mask to be seen.

Or, this past weekend, my tiny village hometown of Ailsa Craig, Ontario had a car show for classic cars.  Beautiful cars.  Couple of thousand people in attendance.  Not a single mask to be seen.

Are people seriously that stupid?  I can't even...  I have students whose faces I've never actually seen.  They started at my school after the Pandemic started and we've been 100% masked up ever since.  I wear a face shield still and usually a mask in class.  

Words fail me.  I cannot begin to understand the mindset here.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Hussar said:


> Watched the closing ceremonies for the Paraolympics last night.  Beautiful show.  But, what got me was toward the end, they handed things off to Paris where they are running the 2024 Paraolympics.  It was so surreal.
> 
> In Japan, every.. single... person was masked.  No crowd in attendance, the stadium was empty save for the performers and the athletes.  ((And, well, the small army of television crew and whatnot, you get the point))  Switch to Paris and there's a crowd of tens of thousands all jammed together near the Eiffel tower, and not a single mask to be seen.
> 
> Or, this past weekend, my tiny village hometown of Ailsa Craig, Ontario had a car show for classic cars.  Beautiful cars.  Couple of thousand people in attendance.  Not a single mask to be seen.
> 
> Are people seriously that stupid?  I can't even...  I have students whose faces I've never actually seen.  They started at my school after the Pandemic started and we've been 100% masked up ever since.  I wear a face shield still and usually a mask in class.
> 
> Words fail me.  I cannot begin to understand the mindset here.




I feel sorry for Japan when it comes to the Olympics. It's hard enough to see a positive return on investment with those games at the best of times, which these were not. I hope they didn't get completely screwed. 

As far as the masks go... yeah. Japan is just so much better at caring about one's place in their community than most large countries. We _nearly_ got there, and then everyone got sick of it. One of the mistakes the government made was, when things were starting to look better, they told everyone that masks were now optional. They have since backtracked (most provinces went through something like this, AFAIK) but it was too late. Many people do not want to put the masks back on. Almost worse than they didn't want to put them on in the first place.

I never stopped having masks manditory in my store, which caused some trouble during the "optional" phase - but I feel pretty vindicated on that stance now that we've backtracked. (Not that I'm happy about having to backtrack. I'd be much happier if we could actually move forward at this point!)


----------



## Zardnaar

Mandatory masking here with level 2+. 

 Can remove them to eat and drink. 

No D&D lvl2+ unlike last level 2. Even if we could we would have to wear them Andi don't think I want to DM for hours doing that. 

 100% mask use at supermarket don't really see them outside walking around the neighborhood. 

 Went for a walk over mild early spring night. Approx 3.6kms to stretch the legs. Peaceful in lockdown. 






 Was dark by the time we got home.


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> Watched the closing ceremonies for the Paraolympics last night.  Beautiful show.  But, what got me was toward the end, they handed things off to Paris where they are running the 2024 Paraolympics.  It was so surreal.
> 
> In Japan, every.. single... person was masked.  No crowd in attendance, the stadium was empty save for the performers and the athletes.  ((And, well, the small army of television crew and whatnot, you get the point))  Switch to Paris and there's a crowd of tens of thousands all jammed together near the Eiffel tower, and not a single mask to be seen.
> 
> Or, this past weekend, my tiny village hometown of Ailsa Craig, Ontario had a car show for classic cars.  Beautiful cars.  Couple of thousand people in attendance.  Not a single mask to be seen.
> 
> Are people seriously that stupid?  I can't even...  I have students whose faces I've never actually seen.  They started at my school after the Pandemic started and we've been 100% masked up ever since.  I wear a face shield still and usually a mask in class.
> 
> Words fail me.  I cannot begin to understand the mindset here.



A friend from France decided it was time to get out, a couple of months back, and headed to North Africa where the numbers were better. He sent me pictures of how the streets in his city looked and even then there were crowds, but no masks.


----------



## nedjer




----------



## Cadence

A recent state law says state funds can't be used for masking enforcement at the schools.  The local school district passed a masking order anyway last week.  The city stepped up today to deal with the funding issue.






						West Columbia Provides Grant to Lexington School District Two for COVID-19 Prevention – City of West Columbia
					






					westcolumbiasc.gov


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Back in 2020, a virologist suggested that a big reason pediatric cases of Covid were relatively rare was because so many kids were actually kept out of school, not some innate resistance to the virus.  That virologist may have been correct.








						Nearly 252,000 children in US test positive for COVID-19 amid back-to-school season
					

As millions of students return to classrooms, the U.S. is now facing its most significant pediatric COVID-19 surge yet.




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## Imaculata

I don't know why everyone has been pretending like children are immune to covid. That seemed nonsensical to me right from the start of this epidemic. If anything, I would expect children to be superspreaders, and just as vulnerable as anyone else.


----------



## Zardnaar

15 cases today vaccinating 1.5 % of the population per day. My area has hit 70% 1 jab. Better late start than never I suppose. First day partial reopening after three weeks if lockdown. Aucklands still on level 4 lockdown. 









						Covid-19: New Zealand's vaccine roll-out explained in 10 charts, and compared with the rest of the world
					

EXPLAINER: More than half of the country has now had a single dose of the vaccine. But that doesn't tell the full story.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> I don't know why everyone has been pretending like children are immune to covid. That seemed nonsensical to me right from the start of this epidemic. If anything, I would expect children to be superspreaders, and just as vulnerable as anyone else.



Well, it’s precisely because there were so few pediatric cases- especially serious ones- in 2020, compared to other age demographics.  But as the virologist warned, that low number was likely due to factors that others were ignoring.

That kind of thinking happens all the time.  Sweden looked at its initial lower numbers and thought they were doing fine without lockdowns and relatively light measures.  Eventually, though, their numbers changed radically worse than their neighboring countries.  It turns out one probable reason why is that a whopping 52% of Swedish adults live alone.  That means they had an unaccounted-for natural pandemic “firebreak“ by spending less time in close quarters with others.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sweden's numbers per Capita were worse than USA at one point. 

 Not sure on numbers now.


----------



## CapnZapp

Sweden relaxed it's restrictions just the other day. 

Scandinavia generally is close to 70% vaccinations (adults 16+ years of age).

Still doesn't mean this thing is close to being over, if for no other reason _there's a whole frickin' world out there!_


----------



## CapnZapp

Zardnaar said:


> Sweden's numbers per Capita were worse than USA at one point.
> 
> Not sure on numbers now.



It is true that when Sweden suffered its worst wave the US happened to enjoyed relative calm, making those numbers possible if not exactly representative for the overall handling of the pandemic.

Not having one of our major parties actively trying to keep people stupid and uninformed does help in the long run, though, and the difference in cases nowadays is stark.


----------



## Thomas Shey

The last information I've seen I had still seems to suggest serious cases among children are, proportionate to infection numbers, pretty low.  Its just that now many more children are getting infected, so the overall number of really sick children is much, much higher.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> The last information I've seen I had still seems to suggest serious cases among children are, proportionate to infection numbers, pretty low.  Its just that now many more children are getting infected, so the overall number of really sick children is much, much higher.




So, CNN this morning is reporting that in the US at the moment, 26.8% of weekly new cases are children.

That the kids may be not having quite so bad a time with the disease is nice, but as they get sick they still represent a large reservoir of the virus - so while the kids won't die, people around them will.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yup.


----------



## nedjer

Masks are vital, as it's an airborne virus, but wait a sec that means ventilation is also vital. All the more so when inconsiderate people refuse to wear masks. So how come we have The War of the Masks, but no Invasion of the Windmills?

Oh that's right, sorry, how could I forget, we'd be decimated by wind cancer. All those fans and open windows just waiting to oxygenate us. Don't know why kids are allowed to walk around with those handheld windmills.


----------



## nedjer

While Covid is beyond serious one of the ways to encourage fewer zombies is to stick a bit of gallows' humour in your feeds.


----------



## nedjer

Your usually great biker mate wants to turn up without a mask and is looking grumpy. You could offer a ticking-off and banish them or go for the old one-two.


----------



## Umbran

nedjer said:


> While Covid is beyond serious one of the ways to encourage fewer zombies is to stick a bit of gallows' humour in your feeds.




Sometimes, the choice is to either laugh, or cry.


----------



## nedjer

2/2 if Wilson can rise to the occasion I'm sure we can.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> So, CNN this morning is reporting that in the US at the moment, 26.8% of weekly new cases are children.
> 
> That the kids may be not having quite so bad a time with the disease is nice, but as they get sick they still represent a large reservoir of the virus - so while the kids won't die, people around them will.




Absolutely.  I've just seen some people talk about Delta like it hits children harder than other versions proportionately, and that doesn't seem to be true; it just hits _everyone_ more often, so the absolute numbers are going to be higher.


----------



## Thomas Shey

nedjer said:


> 2/2 if Wilson can rise to the occasion I'm sure we can.
> View attachment 143466




If there's any dog that could figure out a way to work from home, its a border collie.


----------



## nedjer

Working from home is maybe a key defence against permaCovid. Urban spaces offering pedestrianisation, outings, flats, . . . can make cash. Ferrying people packed into cubicles in and out every day is a Covid factory. The cumulative costs of enabling working from home where practical are much lower than the costs of allowing variant after variant.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

nedjer said:


> Working from home is maybe a key defence against permaCovid. Urban spaces offering pedestrianisation, outings, flats, . . . can make cash. Ferrying people packed into cubicles in and out every day is a Covid factory. The cumulative costs of enabling working from home where practical are much lower than the costs of allowing variant after variant.




You know, I thought that was a great idea, so I've been doing a lot of the whole "working from home."

Lately I've been getting some pushback. Apparently, you're supposed to work from your own home, and not strangers' homes. 

Pity. Some people had really good food in their fridge!


----------



## Zardnaar

nedjer said:


> Working from home is maybe a key defence against permaCovid. Urban spaces offering pedestrianisation, outings, flats, . . . can make cash. Ferrying people packed into cubicles in and out every day is a Covid factory. The cumulative costs of enabling working from home where practical are much lower than the costs of allowing variant after variant.




 It's really only a solution for white collar type jobs. A lot of blue collar ones can't wfh. 

 So yeah I can see that rapidly becoming us vs them(moreso).


----------



## J.Quondam

Zardnaar said:


> It's really only a solution for white collar type jobs. A lot of blue collar ones can't wfh.
> 
> So yeah I can see that rapidly becoming us vs them(moreso).



A lot of those blue collar ones are being rapidly automated out of existence, too.


----------



## Zardnaar

J.Quondam said:


> A lot of those blue collar ones are being rapidly automated out of existence, too.




 Up to a point. 

 I think a lot of middle class and upper class are clueless about the behind the scenes stuff they seem to think factories or mining or something. 

 It's more all the service jobs, truck drivers, port workers, forklift drivers. 

 Until they invent droid a lot of that can't be animated.


----------



## Cadence

Our small city and the one next to it (combined population of 32k) both put in mask mandates over the last two days at the request of the nearest hospital.   The state capital across the river is getting ready to vote on one.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Honestly, from what I've heard, its like _some_ white-collar jobs are easier, potentially at least, to automate out of existence than _some _of the blue collar ones.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Thomas Shey said:


> Honestly, from what I've heard, its like _some_ white-collar jobs are easier, potentially at least, to automate out of existence than _some _of the blue collar ones.



Law is an obvious one. In the past firms needed a huge collection of junior lawyers to search through case law possibly relevant to a case and contained in thick paper volumes stored on shelf after shelf. Now they need one senior lawyer and an online subscription to Lexis Nexis.


----------



## J.Quondam

Zardnaar said:


> Up to a point.
> 
> I think a lot of middle class and upper class are clueless about the behind the scenes stuff they seem to think factories or mining or something.
> 
> It's more all the service jobs, truck drivers, port workers, forklift drivers.
> 
> Until they invent droid a lot of that can't be animated.



Give it time. At least here in the US, sounds like the pandemic has accelerated some companies' adoption of tech to reduce the number of workers in hospitality, retail, transport, agriculture, warehousing, etc. Stuff that's been in the works for years anyway. Won't be overnight, but i suspect the pandemic will end up shortening the life left for blue-collar jobs in at least a few industries.


----------



## Eltab

nedjer said:


> Masks are vital, as it's an airborne virus, but wait a sec that means ventilation is also vital. All the more so when inconsiderate people refuse to wear masks. So how come we have The War of the Masks, but no Invasion of the Windmills?
> 
> Oh that's right, sorry, how could I forget, we'd be decimated by wind cancer. All those fans and open windows just waiting to oxygenate us. Don't know why kids are allowed to walk around with those handheld windmills.



UV light kills viruses, at least the airline commercial showing how they clean the seats between flights thinks so.

Any bar / tavern / restaurant that wants to rig UV lights on the ceiling and run the test (explaining what they are up to and asking for volunteers from the public) could offer sunscreen to the guests and have a Hawaii or tropical theme to the menu.


----------



## CleverNickName

Eltab said:


> UV light kills viruses, at least the airline commercial showing how they clean the seats between flights thinks so.
> 
> Any bar / tavern / restaurant that wants to rig UV lights on the ceiling and run the test (explaining what they are up to and asking for volunteers from the public) could offer sunscreen to the guests and have a Hawaii or tropical theme to the menu.



Those would have to be intense UV bulbs to be able to disinfect tabletops all the way from the ceiling!

At any rate, UV lamps would be a hard *nope* from me (and other skin cancer survivors.)


----------



## Hussar

Well, there's a couple of issues for blue collar jobs.  One, obviously, is the Covid angle, but also, the push for a living level minimum wage is also a huge incentive for companies to figure out how to automate their workforce.  The whole "Self-checkout" system that is gaining a lot of momentum is a sign of this.

I think we're about to see a lot more of "self checkout" and "self service" style restaurants, shopping malls and stores in the very near future.


----------



## J.Quondam

Hussar said:


> Well, there's a couple of issues for blue collar jobs.  One, obviously, is the Covid angle, but also, the push for a living level minimum wage is also a huge incentive for companies to figure out how to automate their workforce.  The whole "Self-checkout" system that is gaining a lot of momentum is a sign of this.
> 
> I think we're about to see a lot more of "self checkout" and "self service" style restaurants, shopping malls and stores in the very near future.



Yeah, I think covid just pushed up the time-frame on a lot of inevitable developments in labor (for fair compensation) and in business (for cost cutting). I just hope society at large manages to adapt as quickly as businesses do.
LoL.


----------



## niklinna

J.Quondam said:


> Give it time. At least here in the US, sounds like the pandemic has accelerated some companies' adoption of tech to reduce the number of workers in hospitality, retail, transport, agriculture, warehousing, etc. Stuff that's been in the works for years anyway. Won't be overnight, but i suspect the pandemic will end up shortening the life left for blue-collar jobs in at least a few industries.



Oh, I went to a cinnamon roll shop the other week and instead of being able to tell a human being what I wanted, I had to deal with an awful automated kiosk with crap UI, which of course other people had been pawing all over (to put this comment slightly on topic). One reset due to said crap UI, and several inquiries for personal info that should have nothing to do with getting a simple snack later, I walked awy from the kiosk and out of the shop. (I also avoid self-checkout at stores because of multiple hassles and screwups by the oh-so-efficient technology.)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I mention it from time to time, here and there…but there is so much Sci-Fi that takes place in a post-scarcity setting, but I cannot think of one where an author closely examines the process of transitioning into such a world from one like our present day.  That period is a bunch of Handwavium.

And we’re living in that glossed over part right now.

In 2012, a robotics company introduced a prototype modular robot that could be configured to do 200 different manufacturing tasks, with a purchase price and 5 year cost of operations equivalent to 5 years wages for an Indonesian factory worker.

A few years ago, medical diagnostic AI programs were averaging about 60% of the accuracy of trained physicians.

Every year, we’re seeing more automation in automobiles, and the big commercial jets pretty much fly themselves but for takeoffs and landings.

Nobody’s job is safe.  I mean, we have a long way to go, but the pace of change is accelerating.  

(FWIW, I don’t use self-checkout either, mainly because they routinely misbehave for me.  Don’t know why, but I seem to be a problem for certain technologies, like fingerprint readers, touch screens and sometimes, motion detectors.)


----------



## J.Quondam

Eltab said:


> UV light kills viruses, at least the airline commercial showing how they clean the seats between flights thinks so.
> 
> Any bar / tavern / restaurant that wants to rig UV lights on the ceiling and run the test (explaining what they are up to and asking for volunteers from the public) could offer sunscreen to the guests and have a Hawaii or tropical theme to the menu.




Sounds like the accepted practice for UV sterilization would be to install it in the ventilation, which would keep it off the patrons. No idea how much that would cost a restaurant, though.









						UV Lights and Lamps: Ultraviolet-C Radiation, Disinfection, and Corona
					

Answers to frequently asked questions about ultraviolet-C (UVC) lamps and lights to disinfect the home or similar spaces from COVID-19.




					www.fda.gov


----------



## nedjer

Zardnaar said:


> It's really only a solution for white collar type jobs. A lot of blue collar ones can't wfh.
> 
> So yeah I can see that rapidly becoming us vs them(moreso).




True but there are a cluster of causes there and white collar workers with time might contribute either way. Everyone has the climate and Covid to deal with and if we can't make something of the easier ways of transitioning we sure ain't going to make sudden jumps.


----------



## J.Quondam

niklinna said:


> Oh, I went to a cinnamon roll shop the other week and instead of being able to tell a human being what I wanted, I had to deal with an awful automated kiosk with crap UI, which of course other people had been pawing all over (to put this comment slightly on topic). One reset due to said crap UI, and several inquiries for personal info that should have nothing to do with getting a simple snack later, I walked awy from the kiosk and out of the shop. (I also avoid self-checkout at stores because of multiple hassles and screwups by the oh-so-efficient technology.)



Yeah, they're pretty janky. (Though I've use grocery store self-checkouts for years now, and haven't had one screw up in quite a long while.) Anyway, the trend I've seen lately is doing it all via smartphone app, even in restaurant. Scan a QR code to bring up the menu, order, and someone brings it out to you. Cuts out the need for shared kiosks.

Main point is just that, yeah, tech is always screwy, at first.  Then it gets fixed, and becomes the norm. 
Remember when laser scanners were first used in grocery stores? Those things _never_ worked! But now they're everywhere, and no one thinks twice about them.


----------



## Cadence

One of the middle schoolers in our virtual d&d game announced he had tested positive today. Hoping his family all stays healthy!


----------



## Maxperson

Cadence said:


> One of the middle schoolers in our virtual d&d game announced he had tested positive today. Hoping his family all stays healthy!



It's tearing through schools right now.









						New study paints dire picture for unmasked, unvaxxed kids
					

A new study on COVID-19 transmission done by researchers at Georgia Tech University and North Carolina State University paints a dire picture for students who go to school unmasked and unvaccinated.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Cadence

Maxperson said:


> It's tearing through schools right now.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New study paints dire picture for unmasked, unvaxxed kids
> 
> 
> A new study on COVID-19 transmission done by researchers at Georgia Tech University and North Carolina State University paints a dire picture for students who go to school unmasked and unvaccinated.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com




Several of the local middle schools are closed (or just re-opened), along with a grade school or two and a high school or two.  :-(

Our district of just under 9,000 students just had two middle schools and a grade school come out of shut-down iirc.  It currently has 153 positives and 756 in quarantine.  This district, and one of the cities in its boundaries just teamed up to put in a mask mandate and a funding mechanism that should get around the state law blocking them (by disallowing any state funds to be used).


----------



## Maxperson

Cadence said:


> Several of the local middle schools are closed (or just re-opened), along with a grade school or two and a high school or two.  :-(
> 
> Our district of just under 9,000 students just had two middle schools and a grade school come out of shut-down iirc.  It currently has 153 positives and 756 in quarantine.  This district, and one of the cities in its boundaries just teamed up to put in a mask mandate and a funding mechanism that should get around the state law blocking them (by disallowing any state funds to be used).



I live in California and it's unfortunate, but none of the schools will even think of shutting down before the upcoming election.


----------



## cmad1977

Maxperson said:


> It's tearing through schools right now.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New study paints dire picture for unmasked, unvaxxed kids
> 
> 
> A new study on COVID-19 transmission done by researchers at Georgia Tech University and North Carolina State University paints a dire picture for students who go to school unmasked and unvaccinated.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com




I don’t wanna speak too soon but LAUSDs numbers have dropped steadily since the start of school.


----------



## Maxperson

cmad1977 said:


> I don’t wanna speak too soon but LAUSDs numbers have dropped steadily since the start of school.



LAUSD has 1620 current active cases.  And god knows how many students in quarantine over them.  There are around 460,000 students.


----------



## Mage of Spellford

If white collar workers think they are safe they are in for a big shock.

We've already seen how easy it is to outsource to countries that have lower salaries and no benefits. Just wait until some of the AI systems currently in development come online. Skynet is fiction, these intelligent systems that will replace everything from editors to lawyers even to doctors so far as diagnostics are concerned are real and we are on the cusp of deployment.

The reality is that corporations and society at large is going to have some tough decisions to make about how we go forward because the days of earning a wage in any discipline are numbered. Office workers can very easily be replaced, probably even easier than blue collar workers were in the nineties.


----------



## cmad1977

Maxperson said:


> LAUSD has 1620 current active cases. And god knows how many students in quarantine over them. There are around 460,000 students.




Which is down from 3600 at the start of the year.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Eltab said:


> UV light kills viruses, at least the airline commercial showing how they clean the seats between flights thinks so.
> 
> Any bar / tavern / restaurant that wants to rig UV lights on the ceiling and run the test (explaining what they are up to and asking for volunteers from the public) could offer sunscreen to the guests and have a Hawaii or tropical theme to the menu.




UV light intense enough to have a significant impact is actually unsafe to expose human skin to.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mage of Spellford said:


> If white collar workers think they are safe they are in for a big shock.
> 
> We've already seen how easy it is to outsource to countries that have lower salaries and no benefits. Just wait until some of the AI systems currently in development come online. Skynet is fiction, these intelligent systems that will replace everything from editors to lawyers even to doctors so far as diagnostics are concerned are real and we are on the cusp of deployment.
> 
> The reality is that corporations and society at large is going to have some tough decisions to make about how we go forward because the days of earning a wage in any discipline are numbered. Office workers can very easily be replaced, probably even easier than blue collar workers were in the nineties.




 If everyone is screwed would they vote for parties making automation illegal?


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Here's MY (admittedly first world) pandemic problem:

I bought a preconstructed three-bedroom condo (four years ago) to give my kids their own rooms (they were sharing, and they're teenagers now). Delay after delay hit our build _before_ the pandemic, and the pandemic has made it worse. And worse. Anyway, they said they'd be done by the end of July. So we sold our two-bedroom. They missed the end of July, but told us "for sure" they'd finish by the end of August. We were able to push-up our move out day until August 15. Well...

As you know THAT came and went. They now say "Maybe October?"

The hold-up is apparently some parts for one of the elevators. They can't source it, for whatever reason, and in spite of 99% of the building being finished, the City won't sign-off on occupancy until it's done-done.

So... I have been living (plus wife, two-teenagers, and golden retriever) in the back of my Comic Store. One room. No shower. No kitchen. (We have an instant pot, a toaster, and a microwave, and a beer fridge).

I think I might go insane in a week or two. We'll see.

(I admit, as far as problems go, and what with people dying in the world, my troubles are lightweight. Privileged, even. I recognise it, absolutely. Still sucks, though!)


----------



## Zardnaar

13 cases today and day one off school reopening outside of Auckland. 

  Nephew didn't want to go I suppose he enjoyed his 3 weeks off.


----------



## Thomas Shey

FitzTheRuke said:


> (I admit, as far as problems go, and what with people dying in the world, my troubles are lightweight. Privileged, even. I recognise it, absolutely. Still sucks, though!)




That sort of packing in is going to be unpleasant for almost anyone, certainly anyone not used to it.


----------



## Umbran

Mage of Spellford said:


> We've already seen how easy it is to outsource to countries that have lower salaries and no benefits. Just wait until some of the AI systems currently in development come online.




The flip side is that "AI/automation will replace everyone in 20 years" has been a fear for... 40 years or so.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> If everyone is screwed would they vote for parties making automation illegal?




That's a great question for a website that focuses on politics.  Which this one does not.


----------



## Ryujin

Maxperson said:


> I live in California and it's unfortunate, but none of the schools will even think of shutting down before the upcoming election.



The Toronto Catholic School Board said, straight-up, that they will not be allowing polling stations in their schools for the upcoming Federal Election. That's going to make it pretty tough to find alternates quickly enough, but it's a completely understandable position. You can't have random strangers walking around a school during a pandemic.


----------



## billd91

Ryujin said:


> The Toronto Catholic School Board said, straight-up, that they will not be allowing polling stations in their schools for the upcoming Federal Election. That's going to make it pretty tough to find alternates quickly enough, but it's a completely understandable position. You can't have random strangers walking around a school during a pandemic.



Understandable, but closing polling sites is also a tactic of voter suppression if they don't replace them with readily accessible alternatives. That's been a BIG problem here in the US. Fortunately, absentee voter pushes helped in the last cycle, but there are groups pushing to curtail those as well.


----------



## Ryujin

billd91 said:


> Understandable, but closing polling sites is also a tactic of voter suppression if they don't replace them with readily accessible alternatives. That's been a BIG problem here in the US. Fortunately, absentee voter pushes helped in the last cycle, but there are groups pushing to curtail those as well.



Sorry, didn't mean to start an aside that's political. More about controlling outbreaks among school aged children.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Sorry, didn't mean to start an aside that's political. More about controlling outbreaks among school aged children.




So, I don't know how it is done in Canada, but in the US, when a school is used as a polling place, the kids are not allowed in the section of the building being used for polling, and the voters are not allowed to just wander around where the students are.  There is no mixing to speak of, so it is not an issue for controlling outbreaks.

California not closing its schools before the election is all about the political impact of closing them.


----------



## billd91

Ryujin said:


> Sorry, didn't mean to start an aside that's political. More about controlling outbreaks among school aged children.



Unfortunately, we can't trust the Catholic schools to avoid being political around here. They've been fighting some of the county's efforts to control the pandemic in my area.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

billd91 said:


> Unfortunately, we can't trust the Catholic schools to avoid being political around here. They've been fighting some of the county's efforts to control the pandemic in my area.



While the Pope has generally been on board with most pandemic public health measures, it’s not universal.  Some of our dioceses in America have been very proactive and cooperative with the general fight against Covid.  Others have been sanctuaries for plague rats.


----------



## J.Quondam

Umbran said:


> So, I don't know how it is done in Canada, but in the US, when a school is used as a polling place, the kids are not allowed in the section of the building being used for polling, and the voters are not allowed to just wander around where the students are.  There is no mixing to speak of, so it is not an issue for controlling outbreaks.
> 
> California not closing its schools before the election is all about the political impact of closing them.



Polling site administration varies a _lot_ by state and district. In my last county, every elementary and middle school kicked out polling sites for reasons of covid, despite the fact that public and the students don't mix. And wisely so, imo, since the divider between the polling site and the rest of the school in many older buildings was sometimes nothing more than a line of masking tape or something.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> So, I don't know how it is done in Canada, but in the US, when a school is used as a polling place, the kids are not allowed in the section of the building being used for polling, and the voters are not allowed to just wander around where the students are.  There is no mixing to speak of, so it is not an issue for controlling outbreaks.
> 
> California not closing its schools before the election is all about the political impact of closing them.



Actually wander, no, but they have to walk to the area in which polling is occurring. In the two schools where I usually vote that's the gymnasium/multi-purpose room, which is at the back of the school. You have to go through a fair bit of the school to get there, by default, and they've never seemed to get it into their heads that both gyms have REAR ACCESS fire doors. I went to one of these schools, a lifetime ago, and it would be simple in that school to use one rear door for entry and the other for exit, in order to maintain social distancing.


----------



## Maxperson

J.Quondam said:


> Polling site administration varies a _lot_ by state and district. In my last county, every elementary and middle school kicked out polling sites for reasons of covid, despite the fact that public and the students don't mix. And wisely so, imo, since the divider between the polling site and the rest of the school in many older buildings was sometimes nothing more than a line of masking tape or something.



Here in California they put the polling place in one of the auditoriums that opens up to or very near the outside of the school, so contact isn't going to happen.


----------



## Ryujin

billd91 said:


> Unfortunately, we can't trust the Catholic schools to avoid being political around here. They've been fighting some of the county's efforts to control the pandemic in my area.



In Ontario, Canada, funding for Catholic schools by government is guaranteed under the British North America Act. Yes, a document dating back to 1867, at Confederation. It has been a (pardon the pun) royal mess since then. On the other hand, by court ruling, you don't have to be Catholic in order to attend the Catholic board schools.


----------



## J.Quondam

Maxperson said:


> Here in California they put the polling place in one of the auditoriums that opens up to or very near the outside of the school, so contact isn't going to happen.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Actually wander, no, but they have to walk to the area in which polling is occurring. In the two schools where I usually vote that's the gymnasium/multi-purpose room, which is at the back of the school. You have to go through a fair bit of the school to get there, by default, and they've never seemed to get it into their heads that both gyms have REAR ACCESS fire doors. I went to one of these schools, a lifetime ago, and it would be simple in that school to use one rear door for entry and the other for exit, in order to maintain social distancing.




Yeah, around here, they'd use that rear entrance.  

I expect we have greater distrust of random adults interacting with unsupervised kids.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> The flip side is that "AI/automation will replace everyone in 20 years" has been a fear for... 40 years or so.



Even so, automation probably more a question of “when”, not “if” for an increasing number of jobs.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Yeah, around here, they'd use that rear entrance.
> 
> I expect we have greater distrust of random adults interacting with unsupervised kids.



Generally speaking, when the schools here are used to host political events, it’s either after hours or classes are cancelled.  And access to most of the buildings is severely limited.

Public libraries, OTOH, not so much.


----------



## J.Quondam

We used to have polling sites in grocery stores. Covid put the kibosh on that.

eta: However, when covid first shut down a lot of restaurants, music venues, hotel, etc, quite a lot of those places opened up their facilities for polling last year, which was nice of them! That has largely ended, though, now that businesses are largely back open.


----------



## Zardnaar

Some of these stories are odd for me. They use schools here as polling locations but it's a Saturday and you can vote early two weeks out from election. 

  I voted last year in Covid alert levels and they spaced everything out.

 Basically pupils and public don't mix. 

 Nephew was a bit upset schools reopened yesterday.


----------



## J.Quondam

Not surprised it sounds odd. Voting in the US is a hodge-podge of rules, systems, and priorities. It's all run by the states, with little federal authority. 
It's something of  a mess-- some states more so than others.


----------



## Zardnaar

J.Quondam said:


> Not surprised it sounds odd. Voting in the US is a hodge-podge of rules, systems, and priorities. It's all run by the states, with little federal authority.
> It's something of  a mess-- some states more so than others.




 I know the big picture stuff just not the itty gritty of what's involved on the ground.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

What will _really_ surprise Americans about our Candadian Federal Election - the Election was announced August 15 and we go to the polls September 20. A month of campaigning is all they get!


----------



## Eltab

I've seen churches and schools used as polling places.  In both cases, one end of the building was used for voters (gym at school or cafeteria at church).  A closed doorway or a long empty hallway marked "Please Do Not Enter" were between the guests and the normal occupants.  Tuesday is not the busy day for church, and the kids / teens were down in their classrooms.  No idea how the school handled lunchtime or recess.  Although (in a normal year) a Civics or Government class could take advantage to visit the polls and talk to the folks working there.


----------



## billd91

FitzTheRuke said:


> What will _really_ surprise Americans about our Candadian Federal Election - the Election was announced August 15 and we go to the polls September 20. A month of campaigning is all they get!



I would just about kill for that kind of efficiency in our electoral system.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

billd91 said:


> I would just about kill for that kind of efficiency in our electoral system.



Personally, I _like_ having enough time for _committed_ journalists to dig up dirt that matters.


----------



## J.Quondam

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Personally, I _like_ having enough time for _committed_ journalists to dig up dirt that matters.



Problem is that too many voters don't care about the dirt and just vote for "their guy" anyway.
Committed journalism only seems to matter to thoughtful, serious voters. But "thoughtful" and "serious" don't really apply to tens of millions of American voters. _Those_ voters "do their own research" and are perfectly happy with bombastic, bias-confirming yellow journalism... which, of course, is why they do idiotic stuff like refusing vaccine in favor of chowing down on horse meds.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> I would just about kill for that kind of efficiency in our electoral system.




Yes, well, note that the entirety of Canada has the population of... California.  About 11% of the US population.

It is not clear that such speed is possible or desirable when you scale the population up that much.


----------



## Cadence

In local news, our Governor announced he will 'fight them to the gates of hell' after Biden announces new vaccine mandates.   Fighting COVID or to keep schools and hospitals open is apparently a different matter.


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> Yes, well, note that the entirety of Canada has the population of... California.  About 11% of the US population.
> 
> It is not clear that such speed is possible or desirable when you scale the population up that much.



The UK has twice the population of Canada - still does it in 25 working days once they call the election. I'm quite willing to extend a bit to incorporate the primary season, but our election process is overly long and drawn out and requires too much money. It badly needs reform. There's no reason it can't be completed within 3 months other than lack of political will to reform the system.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> There's no reason it can't be completed within 3 months other than lack of political will to reform the system.




And that's the point where we stop in the discussion.


----------



## Zardnaar

Unvaccinated 10 times more likely to require hospitalization and 11 times more likely to die. 



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/09/10/moderna-most-effective-covid-vaccine-studies/
		


 Moderna best vaccine in real world conditions. Pfizer second best. 

Here we get a choice of Pfizer, Pfizer or Pfizer.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Eh, the fact that Pfizer is second best doesn't mean it isn't perfectly functional.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Availability is often one of the best attributes a thing can have.


----------



## CleverNickName

Thomas Shey said:


> Eh, the fact that Pfizer is second best doesn't mean it isn't perfectly functional.




Modera > Pfizer >> no vaccine at all > horse medicine


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

CleverNickName said:


> Moderna > Pfizer >> no vaccine at all > horse medicine



I got J&J. I don't regret getting the first vaccine that was available for me to take, but I do wish that I'd gotten Pfizer or Moderna.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Yeah, honestly the step between "not vaccinated" and almost any of the big name vaccines (even some of the lesser ones) is big enough it worth doing.


----------



## Eltab

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I got J&J. I don't regret getting the first vaccine that was available for me to take, but I do wish that I'd gotten Pfizer or Moderna.



You might be better off in the long run: Pfizer and Moderna degrade over time - hence the need for booster shots.  But I haven't yet heard anything about J&J also needing boosters.


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> Unvaccinated 10 times more likely to require hospitalization and 11 times more likely to die.



That seems to vary.  Here in Los Angeles the unvaccinated outnumber the vaccinated in the hospitals 25 or 29 to 1.


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> Yeah, around here, they'd use that rear entrance.
> 
> I expect we have greater distrust of random adults interacting with unsupervised kids.




Well these are catholic schools in Canada. Random adults interacting with unsupervised kids is pretty standard apparently.


----------



## Hussar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Even so, automation probably more a question of “when”, not “if” for an increasing number of jobs.




And, let’s not forget just how much labour has been automated in the last forty years. 

We’ve replaced a Lot of workers already.


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> Yes, well, note that the entirety of Canada has the population of... California. About 11% of the US population.
> 
> It is not clear that such speed is possible or desirable when you scale the population up that much.




Japan does it in about a month.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> And, let’s not forget just how much labour has been automated in the last forty years.
> 
> We’ve replaced a Lot of workers already.



Yep.  People talk about America’s declining manufacturing output.  What many don’t realize is that we’re outproducing the peaks of the 1970s…with a fraction of the workforce.


----------



## Mirtek

Zardnaar said:


> If everyone is screwed would they vote for parties making automation illegal?



And then they themselves order the cheap products imported from those countries that did not.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well has family gathering today with wife's family. Couldn't do it in level 3 and 4 lockdown. 4 weeks of each other's company for the most part. 

 Everyone hugged me bleah so I told them to make it last until Christmas. Not much of a hugger (except her grandma). 

  Wife over indulged with her sister hooking into the cider. Oops.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> The UK has twice the population of Canada - still does it in 25 working days once they call the election.




Yes, but note that the UK and Japan are both parliamentary systems, rather than presidential.  The Prime Minister doesn't have to try to earn votes from private citizens throughout the country.


----------



## J.Quondam

The US also has primaries-- the elections held several months before the "real" one to narrow the field. That primary season stretches out the whole campaign that much more. And the dates on those primaries aren't set in stone; they've been moving earlier for decades.

The other big issue is unlimited money in campaigns, obviously. Once bounded by limited public funds, campaigning has become a multibillion-dollar industry today. There's a clear interest on the part of certain businesses (and the party associates who generally lead them) to stretch the pain out as long as possible.* If all that money was limited by law, that would starve campaigns, and act to concentrate most of it nearer to the actual election when it would do most good.


_* There's also the question of what happens to unused campaign funds. Left over pots of cash can be very, umm, "enticing"._


----------



## billd91

J.Quondam said:


> The US also has primaries-- the elections held several months before the "real" one to narrow the field. That primary season stretches out the whole campaign that much more. And the dates on those primaries aren't set in stone; they've been moving earlier for decades.
> 
> The other big issue is unlimited money in campaigns, obviously. Once bounded by limited public funds, campaigning has become a multibillion-dollar industry today. There's a clear interest on the part of certain businesses (and the party associates who generally lead them) to stretch the pain out as long as possible.* If all that money was limited by law, that would starve campaigns, and act to concentrate most of it nearer to the actual election when it would do most good.
> 
> 
> _* There's also the question of what happens to unused campaign funds. Left over pots of cash can be very, umm, "enticing"._



And the earlier you declare a campaign, the sooner you can use the campaign‘s funds to cover legal expenses. Hence, Trump’s declaration of his re-election campaign so early. That’s also part of the corruption in our system. We have, effectively, a 600 day presidential election super-marathon, and then some people wonder why voters get sick of it and disengage.


----------



## CleverNickName

billd91 said:


> We have, effectively, a 600 day presidential election super-marathon, and then some people wonder why voters get sick of it and disengage.



Unfortunately, the system is functioning exactly as it is intended to function:  more money, fewer voters.


----------



## Eltab

I would prefer "regional primaries" (such as Super Tuesday) over the current schedule.  Indiana (votes in May) rarely has competitive primaries, due to previous candidate attrition.  2016 was an exception; I was tempted to visit all four major candidates' rallies near me, buy a trinket-souvenir from each, and mount them on a plaque.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Soooo, how ‘bout them vaccines?


----------



## J.Quondam

They'd be better if you could get them with sprinkles on top!
I wrote a letter to CDC to that effect, but they've callously cold-shouldered me so far.


----------



## niklinna

Well I did just read about how the mRNA vaccines' benefits start to fade after six months or so, and I'm coming up on that. Wondering when I'll be hearing something more formal about booster shot programs.


----------



## cmad1977

I’m glad LAUSD mandated vaccinations for students 12+.
Seems like San Francisco schools haven’t had a major outbreak.


----------



## Mikeythorn

niklinna said:


> Well I did just read about how the mRNA vaccines' benefits start to fade after six months or so, and I'm coming up on that. Wondering when I'll be hearing something more formal about booster shot programs.



As I understood the reporting around this, the benefit in terms of “preventing infection” drops after six months (with Pfizer 95% effectiveness drops to 80%), but the benefit in terms of “preventing serious illness” is still there. In other words, after six months you do risk getting Covid, but the risk of getting seriously ill as a result remains very low. I do think the way the story has been covered has not really been clear enough on that latter point.


----------



## Zardnaar

I have a theory. Rename the Moderna vaccine to something else and market as cattle vitamin supplement or something. Zardocon or whatever. 

 Don't give it away but charge money for it. Put a disclaimer on it saying that Zardocon absolutely cannot be used for Covid treatment.


----------



## cmad1977

Zardnaar said:


> I have a theory. Rename the Moderna vaccine to something else and market as cattle vitamin supplement or something. Zardocon or whatever.
> 
> Don't give it away but charge money for it. Put a disclaimer on it saying that Zardocon absolutely cannot be used for Covid treatment.




Add in something like 
“Joe Biden and his cabal say this doesn’t work!”


----------



## Imaculata

About a month ago some guy was selling a cure for 5G, and I can't help but be a little bit jealous that I didn't think of that.

Also, some folk are selling ordinary usb sticks as anti-5G devices. Stroke of genius.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> I have a theory. Rename the Moderna vaccine to something else and market as cattle vitamin supplement or something. Zardocon or whatever.
> 
> Don't give it away but charge money for it. Put a disclaimer on it saying that Zardocon absolutely cannot be used for Covid treatment.



Spitballing names…

CoQanon21
HydroCoDone
SueDaFeds
Cofefe19


----------



## nedjer

Horse Paste Rapid Delivery System and charged them $20 a shot.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Spitballing names…
> 
> CoQanon21
> HydroCoDone
> SueDaFeds
> Cofefe19



I'm thinking "Covfefe 45" an put it in a malt liquor bottle.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Today's update of stupidity:

The local doctor heading up COVID-19 efforts has been targeted and people have attacked his computer system (disabling it with a virus) along with sending spam, threatening emails, and constant harassing phone calls.

His sin? He said that Joe Rogan and ivermectin was malarkey. 

Good times!


----------



## J.Quondam

Just to drive home the point of the failures of covidiocy:








						As COVID cases rise, so do hospital-related infections
					

Overcrowding from COVID care is allowing infections to rise again.




					arstechnica.com
				



By taking up hospital space, covidiots not only are making it harder for people with other illnesses to get the treatment they need, but they're also boosting the odds that that everyone who _does_ end up in hospital _get even sicker_, because so many patients are packed in so tight.
--
And a propos of nothing probably... For the first time since the pandemic began, I needed to visit a medical facility last week. At the clinic, roughly 4 in 5 of the check-ins that I overheard were covid-related. Sitting in the waiting room among coughing people,


_* So far, no covid!_


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Looking forward to my flu shot (when available) and getting the shingrix stab, too.


----------



## Thomas Shey

J.Quondam said:


> Just to drive home the point of the failures of covidiocy:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As COVID cases rise, so do hospital-related infections
> 
> 
> Overcrowding from COVID care is allowing infections to rise again.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> arstechnica.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> By taking up hospital space, covidiots not only are making it harder for people with other illnesses to get the treatment they need, but they're also boosting the odds that that everyone who _does_ end up in hospital _get even sicker_, because so many patients are packed in so tight.
> --
> And a propos of nothing probably... For the first time since the pandemic began, I needed to visit a medical facility last week. At the clinic, roughly 4 in 5 of the check-ins that I overheard were covid-related. Sitting in the waiting room among coughing people, I found myself thinking, _It's going to suck BAD if I get covid* on top of shingles.**
> 
> 
> * So far, no covid!
> ** Shingles is _really_ unpleasant._




Gods above, I can't even imagine that combination, and kind of don't want to.


----------



## Ryujin

J.Quondam said:


> Just to drive home the point of the failures of covidiocy:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As COVID cases rise, so do hospital-related infections
> 
> 
> Overcrowding from COVID care is allowing infections to rise again.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> arstechnica.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> By taking up hospital space, covidiots not only are making it harder for people with other illnesses to get the treatment they need, but they're also boosting the odds that that everyone who _does_ end up in hospital _get even sicker_, because so many patients are packed in so tight.
> --
> And a propos of nothing probably... For the first time since the pandemic began, I needed to visit a medical facility last week. At the clinic, roughly 4 in 5 of the check-ins that I overheard were covid-related. Sitting in the waiting room among coughing people, I found myself thinking, _It's going to suck BAD if I get covid* on top of shingles.**
> 
> 
> * So far, no covid!
> ** Shingles is _really_ unpleasant._



Thanks for reminding me. Now that I have the Covid vaccinations well out of the way, I need to book in for the Shingles vaccine. Fortunately, my employer covers it, and I got luck with my first bout not being too bad.


----------



## nedjer

The media will report and in some cases condemn an incident, but never quite get round to the root causes of social and political media fuelling misinformation by presenting so-called 'debate' in the name of 'balance'. There is no debate over the climate crisis, just look out the window; there is no debate over what prevents Covid, just look at where it's under control; there is no debate over whether or not doctors and nurses are a good idea, because even anti-vaxxers turn to them once their lungs start seizing up.

Be good if they could show me a show where all the anti-vaxxer attacks on doctors and consequences of Covid bed-blocking are brought together and discussed in terms of the medical impacts on service delivery. No insert from Senator Loads O' Loot or plucky young stars of The Activist. We need less strictly dancing and more strictly facts.


----------



## niklinna

That Lucifer, ignoring social distancing. (Which should've been called "physical distancing" but has that ship ever sailed.)


----------



## Cadence

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Looking forward to my flu shot (when available) and getting the shingrix stab, too.



My second shingles shot is in January.  Need to start thinking of the flu one.


----------



## J.Quondam

Oh look! No baby deliveries, thanks to covidiots:








						New York hospital to 'pause' delivering babies after staffers quit rather than get vaccinated
					

The Lewis County Health System is working on "contingency plans" in case it faces more mass resignations that put other essential services at risk.




					www.yahoo.com
				



I still can't fathom how _healthcare workers_, of all people, can be antivaxxers. How do people like that even get hired to work in the medical field in the first place?


----------



## Eltab

J.Quondam said:


> Oh look! No baby deliveries, thanks to covidiots:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New York hospital to 'pause' delivering babies after staffers quit rather than get vaccinated
> 
> 
> The Lewis County Health System is working on "contingency plans" in case it faces more mass resignations that put other essential services at risk.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I still can't fathom how _healthcare workers_, of all people, can be antivaxxers. How do people like that even get hired to work in the medical field in the first place?



If you fire big chunks of your medical staff in the middle of a pandemic, the idiot is not the staff.


----------



## Cadence

Eltab said:


> If you fire big chunks of your medical staff in the middle of a pandemic, the idiot is not the staff.



If big chunks of your medical staff doesn't care about spreading the pandemic or becoming patients themselves or passing on the message to others not to care... kind of feels like the staff might be in on the inanity too?  

Anyway, getting back to jobs that won't be automated and pay a lot, how much are travelling nurses making now?


----------



## Ryujin

J.Quondam said:


> Oh look! No baby deliveries, thanks to covidiots:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New York hospital to 'pause' delivering babies after staffers quit rather than get vaccinated
> 
> 
> The Lewis County Health System is working on "contingency plans" in case it faces more mass resignations that put other essential services at risk.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I still can't fathom how _healthcare workers_, of all people, can be antivaxxers. How do people like that even get hired to work in the medical field in the first place?



Prior to Covid I had a bit of a Facebook debate with someone claiming to be a "virologist", who pointed to an incident in Quebec in which a small town's population was involved in a measles outbreak (IIRC), when the population was reported to be 100% vaccinated. "SEE?! Vaccines don't work!", he said, clearly not understanding either the concept of "less that 100% effectiveness", nor "denying fuel to the fire." I have my doubts that he had any medical or scientific credentials, whatsoever.


----------



## J.Quondam

Eltab said:


> If you fire big chunks of your medical staff in the middle of a pandemic, the idiot is not the staff.



In the middle of a pandemic, medical staff who refuse vaccination* are idiots.


_* And-- despite what they say-- they're refusing vaccination on purely _political_ grounds, which makes it extra-feces-smearingly idiotic._


----------



## Mirtek

J.Quondam said:


> In the middle of a pandemic, medical staff who refuse vaccination* are idiots.
> 
> 
> _* And-- despite what they say-- they're refusing vaccination on purely _political_ grounds, which makes it extra-feces-smearingly idiotic._



True, but there are times you need the idiots anyway.


----------



## J.Quondam

Mirtek said:


> True, but there are times you need the idiots anyway.



Indeed. And that is sad commentary on the state of modern civilization.


----------



## niklinna

Eltab said:


> If you fire big chunks of your medical staff in the middle of a pandemic, the idiot is not the staff.



You may have missed that the article is about staff quitting, not being fired. I wish them luck in their new careers; clearly they've been working in the wrong one for them.


----------



## Eltab

Cadence said:


> If big chunks of your medical staff doesn't care about spreading the pandemic or becoming patients themselves or passing on the message to others not to care... kind of feels like the staff might be in on the inanity too?



Are you sure the problem is "the staffers don't care"?  Somebody interviewed the staff to find out what the problem is and got that answer?  Or is this - yet again - applying a hasty generalization to other people without bothering to acquire knowledge?


----------



## Eltab

J.Quondam said:


> In the middle of a pandemic, medical staff who refuse vaccination* are idiots.



If they are proposing an alternative course of action to attain a desirable goal - such as "no patient exposed to COVID while in hospital" - then giving them an either-or choice which excludes their suggested option is still being dumb.  The medical staff is trained professionals with experience around patients.  We should treat them like it.


----------



## J.Quondam

Eltab said:


> If they are proposing an alternative course of action to attain a desirable goal - such as "no patient exposed to COVID while in hospital" - then giving them an either-or choice which excludes their suggested option is still being dumb.  The medical staff is trained professionals with experience around patients.  We should treat them like it.



But what of the the large majority of medical workers in the same facility who _are_ vaccinated? Presumably they too are trained professionals with experience around patients.
Given that vaccination is the consensus recommendation of the medical establishment, it would seem that some of these staffers are decidedly more professional that others.


----------



## Cadence

Eltab said:


> Are you sure the problem is "the staffers don't care"?  Somebody interviewed the staff to find out what the problem is and got that answer?  Or is this - yet again - applying a hasty generalization to other people without bothering to acquire knowledge?




Did I read correctly they were still allowing medical exemptions?

I would be kind of surprised if there were 30 folks there that  belonged to the Church of Christ Scientist, or Dutch Reformed Church, or other religion that has a standing policy of being against vaccines.  If they were,  I would hope the hospital could find them a non-patient facing position in the meantime.  If that's the reason then I apologize.

I'm guessing most of it is for reasons that I'd lump with the others I gave previously. "A recent American Nurses Association survey found nearly 12% of nurses do not plan to get vaccinated, with most citing concerns about safety or doubts that immunization is necessary. " I mean, I'm sure there are some who are against a lot of things in general (and not just COVID) from masks to prevent things to doing certain kinds of paperwork to certain treatments. Don't particularly care.

Haven't found a good survey separating the CNAs from the RNs from the Nurse Practitioners.


----------



## Hussar

Eltab said:


> If they are proposing an alternative course of action to attain a desirable goal - such as "no patient exposed to COVID while in hospital" - then giving them an either-or choice which excludes their suggested option is still being dumb.  The medical staff is trained professionals with experience around patients.  We should treat them like it.



But, that's not even feasible.  "You can't treat anyone while there is a potential COVID patient in the hospital"?  What's the point of being a nurse at that point?

There are basic requirements for all jobs.  And, if I need a permit to go to a restaurant or take an airplane, then I sure as hell do not want to be treated by a nurse who hasn't had vaccinations.  

Are nurses not required to have had their childhood immunizations?  Would the hospitals employing them not have access to those records?  

It's rather horrifying to think that there are nursing staff out there who have not been immunized for things like Polio and whatnot.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mirtek said:


> True, but there are times you need the idiots anyway.



You _*really*_ don‘t need people who increase the probability of disease vectoring in a hospital overwhelmed with patients.

…or any other time, TBH.


----------



## Mirtek

Dannyalcatraz said:


> You _*really*_ don‘t need people who increase the probability of disease vectoring in a hospital overwhelmed with patients.
> 
> …or any other time, TBH.



This hospital seems to do, otherwise they would not have to just shut down certain areas.

In RL you very often do not have the staff you want and have to make do with the staff you have.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mirtek said:


> This hospital seems to do, otherwise they would not have to just shut down certain areas.
> 
> In RL you very often do not have the staff you want and have to make do with the staff you have.



They’re a real liability to the hospital, both in the medical AND legal sense.

If unvaccinated personnel were ever connected to a patient’s, visitor’s, or co-worker’s serious illness or death, even a _mediocre_ plaintiff’s attorney could win a big settlement.  A good one could financially ruin them.

Think of it like this: imagine a short-staffed bank that hired someone with a record of arrests- or worse, convictions- for theft or larceny shortly before a bunch of stuff went missing from some safe deposit boxes.

Perhaps you’ve heard of Mary Mallon, a.k.a. Typhoid Mary?  She worked as a live-in cook, spreading typhoid to thise she worked for.  Despite being quarranti twice, she kept trying to work as a cook.  Eventually, she was arrested and institutionalized for the last 20-30 years of her life.  Now, imagine a modern version of her going through a temp agency to get similar work.  If they knew she was a risk, they’d be exposed to liability.


----------



## Zardnaar

Think they could still pull a Typhoid Mary here. Read the Health act 1965 and they give the director general very broad powers. 

 And it supercedes the human right and bill of rights act.

 Section 70 interesting read. 



			https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1956/0065/latest/whole.html


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Think they could still pull a Typhoid Mary here. Read the Health act 1965 and they give the director general very broad powers.
> 
> And it supercedes the human right and bill of rights act.
> 
> Section 70 interesting read.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1956/0065/latest/whole.html



What do you mean "pull a Typhoid Mary"?  Who is "They?"

Mary Mallon was a horrible human being.  She absolutely knew what she was doing and was deliberately doing it.  

But, yeah, today if an employer knowingly employed someone like that, they're just opening themselves up to all sorts of litigation.  

Will be an interesting fall out of the anti-vax crowd when they can actually pin someone for the source of an infection.  Imagine a pre-school anti-vax teacher who has one of the students die.  The parents are going to absolutely crucify everyone involved.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> What do you mean "pull a Typhoid Mary"?  Who is "They?"
> 
> Mary Mallon was a horrible human being.  She absolutely knew what she was doing and was deliberately doing it.
> 
> But, yeah, today if an employer knowingly employed someone like that, they're just opening themselves up to all sorts of litigation.
> 
> Will be an interesting fall out of the anti-vax crowd when they can actually pin someone for the source of an infection.  Imagine a pre-school anti-vax teacher who has one of the students die.  The parents are going to absolutely crucify everyone involved.




Here they could still theoretically lock some up and throw away the key going by what I posted above. 
 We don't have a constitution and a lot of the rights are more like guidelines with exceptions.

 It's the first time they've actually used said powers since the law was written. In 1956.


----------



## Hussar

Well, no, you have a Westminister system.  Which means you have all rights save the ones a Constitution would withhold from you.  Under English common law practices, you don't actually need an American style constitution to have rights.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Well, no, you have a Westminister system.  Which means you have all rights save the ones a Constitution would withhold from you.  Under English common law practices, you don't actually need an American style constitution to have rights.




 I posted the link above what they can actually do once an emergency is decleared (they did March 2020). 

 There's a court case here coming up here about defence force personal protesting about mandatory vaccinations. Basically get vaccinated or lose job. 

 1. The relevant legislation just says they can't force you to get vaccinated. Doesn't say they have to employ you though. 

2. There's an exception in the bill of rights clause. 

3. They can rewrite the bill of rights anyway with a parliamentary majority (they won absolute majority last year in election with proportional system)

4. The health act supercedes the various rights acts. 

 So basically I don't see the court case winning. 

  Context Aucklands spent 4 weeks in level 4 lockdown rest of the country is level 2. There's complaints along the lines of "they can't take away our rights". 

 Well actually they can its right there in black and white. At least when it comes to Covid response. They can restrict travel, close down business and destroy buildings with no ifs or buts (they have to pay compensation though). 

 Hypothetically they can declear a business failing to comply with restrictions as unsanitary and close it down and/or destroy the building. 

 And there's all sorts of other things covered and alot of it is "as he sees fit".

 It's funny when the local Covidiots are quoting American rights from the tv/internet.


----------



## Umbran

nedjer said:


> The media will report and in some cases condemn an incident, but never quite get round to the root causes of social and political media fuelling misinformation by presenting so-called 'debate' in the name of 'balance'.




So, the major media outlets I see haven't been supporting such faux-balance discussion of covid for a long time.  The media is now rather polarized - either they are completely anti-vax and anti-mask, or they recognize the need and no longer give platform to those that don't, except to show where harm is done.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Well, no, you have a Westminister system.  Which means you have all rights save the ones a Constitution would withhold from you.  Under English common law practices, you don't actually need an American style constitution to have rights.




*Mod Note:*
Folks, enough politics.  This is not about gaming, or covid. Drop it, now.


----------



## J.Quondam

On gaming and covid... 
I recently finally got my hands on _Van Richten's Guide to Ravenloft_. I don't have much of a background in the material, since i skipped the setting in previous editions, so aside from Barovia, it's all new to me! I'm reading it in little chunks every night before I sleep. For the most part, i'm enjoying it. 

Last night, I got to the section on Richemulot, the domain of plague. Strangely for me, I found myself vaguely discomfited by the concept of the place. Of course I've heard of others becoming upset about references to epidemics in movies or books or whatnot, but this was the first time something like that happened to me in some small way.


----------



## niklinna

J.Quondam said:


> On gaming and covid...
> I recently finally got my hands on _Van Richten's Guide to Ravenloft_. I don't have much of a background in the material, since i skipped the setting in previous editions, so aside from Barovia, it's all new to me! I'm reading it in little chunks every night before I sleep. For the most part, i'm enjoying it.
> 
> Last night, I got to the section on Richemulot, the domain of plague. Strangely for me, I found myself vaguely discomfited by the concept of the place. Of course I've heard of others becoming upset about references to epidemics in movies or books or whatnot, but this was the first time something like that happened to me in some small way.



Torg Eternity, a game with separate parts of the world exhibiting different genre tropes, debuted with their Pan-Pacifica cosm feature a "contagion" that basically imitates a zombie plague. They've been releasing cosm-specific sourcebooks and this will be the last...with the contagion much less prominent, last I heard.


----------



## Ryujin

niklinna said:


> Torg Eternity, a game with separate parts of the world exhibiting different genre tropes, debuted with their Pan-Pacifica cosm feature a "contagion" that basically imitates a zombie plague. They've been releasing cosm-specific sourcebooks and this will be the last...with the contagion much less prominent, last I heard.



Having played the original TORG for several years, back when it first came out, I've been collecting the sourcebooks as they came out. Orrorsh has always been my least favourite Cosm in which to play, even before that little gem.


----------



## niklinna

Ryujin said:


> Having played the original TORG for several years, back when it first came out, I've been collecting the sourcebooks as they came out. Orrorsh has always been my least favourite Cosm in which to play, even before that little gem.



Oh, yeah, I didn't even think to mention corruption—another plague-like thing in Torg's horror-genre cosm. It's such a lame mechanic (lose a point of Charisma, go below 5 you become an NPC) that could have been handled in an interesting & compelling way, and when the community said as much, the designers doubled down. "Corruption is _eternal_" (italics original, they wanted to be sure you got that), ooh scary, hm wait I'll just roll up a new character.

Wouldn't real life be cool if you could just roll up a new body when you got Covid (or whatever)? [Alas, the answer is probably no.]

But for the record, I've been playing in a Torg Eternity group since just before Covid dropped and really enjoying it in spite of all the rough edges.


----------



## Ryujin

niklinna said:


> Oh, yeah, I didn't even think to mention corruption—another plague-like thing in Torg's horror-genre cosm. It's such a lame mechanic (lose a point of Charisma, go below 5 you become an NPC) that could have been handled in an interesting & compelling way, and when the community said as much, the designers doubled down. "Corruption is _eternal_" (italics original, they wanted to be sure you got that), ooh scary, hm wait I'll just roll up a new character.
> 
> Wouldn't real life be cool if you could just roll up a new body when you got Covid (or whatever)? [Alas, the answer is probably no.]
> 
> But for the record, I've been playing in a Torg Eternity group since just before Covid dropped and really enjoying it in spite of all the rough edges.



I haven't had the chance to play yet, as my usual group has gone with the four winds, but I enjoy reading the stuff. When playing in Orrorsh, in the original game, I would always make up a new character, just for that, rather than using one of my long term characters. Roughly 50% of the time I would end up playing a Martyr Card and saving the day, when things went pear shaped. Had much more fun playing my dual .45 cal wielding Mystery Man, my Elven Monk, or my last character, a minimally cybered-up mutant Pain Weapon wielder from Tharkold.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

If antivaxxer antics at vaccination centers continues to escalate, some regions may be forced to call up the national guard.









						County mandates security at Colorado vaccine clinics after reports of fireworks attack and slashed signs
					

Roving central Colorado with three vans, pop-up tents and folding chairs, public health workers in Jefferson County set out this spring to get coronavirus vaccines to the people who were hardest to reach. They brushed off heckling from passersby who sometimes yelled that covid-19 was a hoax or...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Well in lockdown noticed a cat hanging about. Suspected he was a stray. 

 Went door knocking post lockdown, flyers, FB lost and found pets and no luck. No one knows anything.

 Think he's young bit thin no microchip and he isn't neutered. Snuck in through the cat door. 




 Would you trust this face?

 Sister in law is gonna adopt him. Their kiitty crossed the rainbow bridge a few months ago and she missed having a cat during lockdown. Poor little blighter didn't time his arrival right. If he turned up earlier he could have had a home sooner. 

 Been feeding the little tyke he seems to be used to the concept of regular food.


----------



## niklinna

Make sure you get him his covid vax so he's microchipped! ;-)


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> There's a court case here coming up here about defence force personal protesting about mandatory vaccinations. Basically get vaccinated or lose job.



In the US we can mention that George Washington by fiat declared something similar to the troops.


----------



## cmad1977

Garthanos said:


> In the US we can mention that George Washington by fiat declared something similar to the troops.




Clearly our founding fathers didn’t believe in freedums.


----------



## J.Quondam

So today one particularly loud and cranky antivaxxer at a convenience store didn't think it was funny when I mentioned that vaccine microchips come with a free Windows 11 upgrade.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> In the US we can mention that George Washington by fiat declared something similar to the troops.




And, how everyone in the Army already gets a half-dozen mandatory vaccinations in basic training, plus others later as you deploy into various areas of the world...


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> It's funny when the local Covidiots are quoting American rights from the tv/internet.



Our freedom of speech gets misquoted a lot ... and interpreted to mean what it categorically doesn't too


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> Our freedom of speech gets misquoted a lot ... and interpreted to mean what it categorically doesn't too




 We have the same right here but it's mostly a set of guidelines with a BUT clause. 

  Essentially they can suspend them "in a fair and democratic" way translation whatever parliament passes. 

 Historically we've had 3 or 4 powerful PMs. One DoWed Germany and parliament oked it after the fact iirc.

  So yeah a lot more powerful domestically if they choose to use said powers. A lot of it is more social mores and customs vs legal.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> And, how everyone in the Army already gets a half-dozen mandatory vaccinations in basic training, plus others later as you deploy into various areas of the world...



..*and yet*, at least one LTC (in the Signal Corp, apparently) tendered his resignation because he didn’t want the Covid vaccination mandated by the Pentagon, surrendering his pension and a whole bunch of benefits.

I haven’t heard of the resolution of his case yet, and what level of discharge he’ll be granted.









						Army refuses to say whether officer’s resignation letter citing ‘Marxist takeover of the military’ is real
					

"I regretfully — yet resolutely — tender my resignation."




					taskandpurpose.com


----------



## Maxperson

cmad1977 said:


> Clearly our founding fathers didn’t believe in freedums.



They did, but forcing troops to be inoculated and shutting down Boston due to smallpox until inoculations arrived showed that they placed the health of all above the freedom to kill your neighbors with a disease.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> And, how everyone in the Army already gets a half-dozen mandatory vaccinations in basic training, plus others later as you deploy into various areas of the world...



And how the Supreme Court made a ruling in 1905 supporting the state's right to force everyone to be vaccinated or face a fine.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Garthanos said:


> In the US we can mention that George Washington by fiat declared something similar to the troops.




Military personnel have had mandatory vaccination since as long as I can remember anyway.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ..*and yet*, at least one LTC (in the Signal Corp, apparently) tendered his resignation because he didn’t want the Covid vaccination mandated by the Pentagon, surrendering his pension and a whole bunch of benefits.
> 
> I haven’t heard of the resolution of his case yet, and what level of discharge he’ll be granted.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Army refuses to say whether officer’s resignation letter citing ‘Marxist takeover of the military’ is real
> 
> 
> "I regretfully — yet resolutely — tender my resignation."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> taskandpurpose.com




From what I know of how the military considers officers with that attitude, I suspect it was "Don't let the door hit you on the--"


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Usually military personnel, by necessity, don't have a problem with Doing What They Are Told to Do.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Thomas Shey said:


> From what I know of how the military considers officers with that attitude, I suspect it was "Don't let the door hit you on the--"



“…brass”?


----------



## Garthanos

Thomas Shey said:


> Military personnel have had mandatory vaccination since as long as I can remember anyway.



Also maybe the freedum to harm others was not what was valued by these activists that have become figure heads?


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> We have the same right here but it's mostly a set of guidelines with a BUT clause.



Most every freedom is limited in some fashion. First that freedom of speech we have is designed to limit government. (not private organizations, facebook or twitter or whomever are not required to host your nonsense).  And if your speech can be reasonably considered a call to action to perform an illegal act it is considered, illegal itself.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Garthanos said:


> Most every freedom is limited in some fashion. First that freedom of speech we have is designed to limit government. (not private organizations, facebook or twitter or whomever are not required to host your nonsense).  And if your speech can be reasonably considered a call to action to perform an illegal act it is considered, illegal itself.



Though I will note it was probably not foreseen that a big part of the channels of speech would end up being controlled by private entities; it wasn't even close to as true at that period.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> Though I will note it was probably not foreseen that a big part of the channels of speech would end up being controlled by private entities; it wasn't even close to as true at that period.




It was _absolutely_ as true.  They certainly weren't _government_ entities controlling communications at the time. The private entities were newspapers, and book printers, and private individuals standing on boxes in the square reading from pamphlets.  

What could not be foreseen was the sheer volume and speed of communication, and its relative anonymity, not that the means were privately controlled.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> It was _absolutely_ as true.  They certainly weren't _government_ entities controlling communications at the time. The private entities were newspapers, and book printers, and private individuals standing on boxes in the square reading from pamphlets.




It was not prohibitively expensive to be a pamphleteer, nor to produce a private newspaper as well distributed as anything away from a big city.  There is no equivelent of either now.



Umbran said:


> What could not be foreseen was the sheer volume and speed of communication, and its relative anonymity, not that the means were privately controlled.




I still disagree.  There's a pretty important matter of degree when most of the means of communication for the whole country, if not the globe, is controlled by, in practice 3-5 people, and trying to wedge into that by a new player is all but impossible.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> It was not prohibitively expensive to be a pamphleteer, nor to produce a private newspaper as well distributed as anything away from a big city.  There is no equivelent of either now.




So, you seem to be using "private entities" to mean "flipping huge entity", which is inaccurate.  

Depending on your definitions, "private entity" means either "not owned by the government" or "not owned by the government or traded on the stock market". 

Back in the 1770s, the government didn't own any much of anything in communications.  And the Stock Market in New York City didn't open until 1792 - so it was _all_ private entities back in the day.


----------



## Cadence

Dannyalcatraz said:


> ..*and yet*, at least one LTC (in the Signal Corp, apparently) tendered his resignation because he didn’t want the Covid vaccination mandated by the Pentagon, surrendering his pension and a whole bunch of benefits.
> 
> I haven’t heard of the resolution of his case yet, and what level of discharge he’ll be granted.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Army refuses to say whether officer’s resignation letter citing ‘Marxist takeover of the military’ is real
> 
> 
> "I regretfully — yet resolutely — tender my resignation."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> taskandpurpose.com



Some follow up on Twitter makes it seem he either quit or was planning on quitting last year, and mention a problem with the dates in the letter.  If not fake, seems like requiring vaccines could do wonders for thinning out folks the armed forces might like gone anyway.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> So, you seem to be using "private entities" to mean "flipping huge entity", which is inaccurate.
> 
> Depending on your definitions, "private entity" means either "not owned by the government" or "not owned by the government or traded on the stock market".
> 
> Back in the 1770s, the government didn't own any much of anything in communications.  And the Stock Market in New York City didn't open until 1792 - so it was _all_ private entities back in the day.




Yet the government had a lot of practical ways to block speech that no private entity did on the scale relevant at the time.  Now a number of private organizations have as much or more power to do that.

Look, I'm not saying there's no good reason for Facebook or Twitter to ever block someone.  I just think in practice its disingenuous to suggest the power they have in terms of controlling communication these days is any less than the governments.  Its probably, in practice, more.  And being private entities does not make that a bit less terrifying, nor intrinsically less harmful than China's ability to do so.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> I just think in practice its disingenuous to suggest the power they have in terms of controlling communication these days is any less than the governments.  Its probably, in practice, more.




So, there's a major difference here.  Facebook can remove you from the platform.  That is annoying.

Governments can seize your assets, jail you, or even execute you.

When you think about whether a company has more power to control what you say than a government, remember the term "prison camp".   And no, I am not overstating the case.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> So, there's a major difference here.  Facebook can remove you from the platform.  That is annoying.
> 
> Governments can seize your assets, jail you, or even execute you.
> 
> When you think about whether a company has more power to control what you say than a government, remember the term "prison camp".   And no, I am not overstating the case.




No, but I also don't think you're talking about the ability to infringe speech, but a much broader thing.  In that context, I do really think companies have more power now than the government.  _In that context_.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Thomas Shey said:


> No, but I also don't think you're talking about the ability to infringe speech, but a much broader thing.  In that context, I do really think companies have more power now than the government.  _In that context_.




Well... companies have more power to block your "free" speech in the arenas that they control. Which to a lot of people are very important arenas indeed. But that's just a perception. If you get kicked off of Facebook/Instagram/Twitter/Whatever you still have full rights to speak freely. Just not on those platforms. They matter very little in the grand scheme of things, but they can be very important to any individual who sees them as important.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Umbran said:


> And, how everyone in the Army already gets a half-dozen mandatory vaccinations in basic training, plus others later as you deploy into various areas of the world...



Sure, but given the new tech of these jabs and the fact that long term testing has not been done and they are still deemed experimental, I'm not so sure you can discount their hesitancy and equate them to jabs of old - which have gone through the standard testing process and are not deemed experimental. Details matter.


----------



## Hussar

AnotherGuy said:


> Sure, but given the new tech of these jabs and the fact that long term testing has not been done and they are still deemed experimental, I'm not so sure you can discount their hesitancy and equate them to jabs of old - which have gone through the standard testing process and are not deemed experimental. Details matter.



Let's not forget though, those old vaccines which went through "standard testing" of the time, wouldn't even come close to the level of scrutiny that these vaccines have.  Virtually none of the vaccines of the past century, in their original form, would get FDA approval.  The ability to test something from 1920, say, compared to 2020 isn't even close.  Think about it, Pasteur tested his rabies vaccine on a child.  O.O

When people talk about something being "deemed experimental", by and large they don't have a clue what they are talking about.


----------



## Cadence

AnotherGuy said:


> Sure, but given the new tech of these jabs and the fact that long term testing has not been done and they are still deemed experimental, I'm not so sure you can discount their hesitancy and equate them to jabs of old - which have gone through the standard testing process and are not deemed experimental. Details matter.



Doesn't the current shot from Pfizer now have the full FDA approval many were clamoring for?

Hasn't the general tech been in development for like 20 years?

I'm less annoyed  with folks not wanting unapproved experimental things if they're consistent about it. Are any essential oils or food supplements actually tested and approved (or have we made it illegal to require that)?  A huge number of things we hope will be good cancer treatments are unapproved in the US.  Various things like horse paste interact with COVID haven't had full studies done for side effects treating COVID even if the drug is approved for other things, right? And have the immuno therapies for COVID touted in Florida, for example, gotten full approval yet?  Waiting to see everyone wanting approval rushed when the first experimental mRNA vaccines look like they might work for cancer and are being large scale human tested.  If one can wait five years to get a shot to protect your fellow people, maybe they can wait at the end of the line for the cancer treatment to (I assume it won't be cheap and there will be a big line of folks wanting it).


----------



## AnotherGuy

Cadence said:


> Doesn't the current shot from Pfizer now have the full FDA approval many were clamoring for?



As I understand it the shot for Pfizer does not have full FDA approval, but the BioNtech-Phizer one (Cormirnaty) which is not in the market yet does. I stand to be corrected but the original one is still within the rest of experimental shots.



Cadence said:


> Hasn't the general tech been in development for like 20 years?



And yet it still has not gone through all the necessary clinical trials. Development period means little - this is Moderna's first vaccine and you can only call it successful because of the experimental pass.



Cadence said:


> I'm less annoyed  with folks not wanting unapproved experimental things if they're consistent about it. Are any essential oils or food supplements actually tested and approved (or have we made it illegal to require that)?  A huge number of things we hope will be good cancer treatments are unapproved in the US.  Various things like horse paste interact with COVID haven't had full studies done for side effects treating COVID even if the drug is approved for other things, right? And have the immuno therapies for COVID touted in Florida, for example, gotten full approval yet?  Waiting to see everyone wanting approval rushed when the first experimental mRNA vaccines look like they might work for cancer and are being large scale human tested.  If one can wait five years to get a shot to protect your fellow people, maybe they can wait at the end of the line for the cancer treatment to (I assume it won't be cheap and there will be a big line of folks wanting it).



I cannot comment on all that - but as far as I understood protecting your fellow people in this pandemic were the people with comorbidities and elderly, not the teenagers and young adults Big Pharma wants to milk for more profits. And I just wish ONE doctor from government, if they really gave a rat's ass about health, had gotten onto the TV and said this is what you should be doing to protect yourself, what vitamins you should be taking or how much sun you should be getting a day.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Hussar said:


> Let's not forget though, those old vaccines which went through "standard testing" of the time, wouldn't even come close to the level of scrutiny that these vaccines have.  Virtually none of the vaccines of the past century, in their original form, would get FDA approval.  The ability to test something from 1920, say, compared to 2020 isn't even close.  Think about it, Pasteur tested his rabies vaccine on a child.  O.O



If we have to go back to 1920 to make a comparison for a debate sure. But the PCR test, the mRNA tech and all of that has been around for the last 20-30+ years. We can even go to 1969 where mankind landed on the moon, and yet we are struggling with that Van Allen Belt now. I would not be so quick to just write off our past knowledge of science and study.



Hussar said:


> When people talk about something being "deemed experimental", by and large they don't have a clue what they are talking about.



I guess they could have used another word/phrase to better clarify what they meant then by experimental.


----------



## Cadence

AnotherGuy said:


> As I understand it the shot for Pfizer does not have full FDA approval, but the BioNtech-Phizer one (Cormirnaty) which is not in the market yet does. I stand to be corrected but the original one is still within the rest of experimental shots.




One of the top results on Google when looking for the two names together explains they're the same and why there is confusion.  








						You asked, we answered: Are Pfizer's Comirnaty and BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines the same or different?
					

I've heard that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said Pfizer's Comirnaty and BioNTech formulas are distinctly different in their vaccine approval letter. Is that true?




					www.nebraskamed.com
				






AnotherGuy said:


> And yet it still has not gone through all the necessary clinical trials. Development period means little - this is Moderna's first vaccine and you can only call it successful because of the experimental pass.




The flu vaccine is a different formulation every year...




AnotherGuy said:


> I cannot comment on all that - but as far as I understood protecting your fellow people in this pandemic were the people with comorbidities and elderly, not the teenagers and young adults Big Pharma wants to milk for more profits. And I just wish ONE doctor from government, if they really gave a rat's ass about health, had gotten onto the TV and said this is what you should be doing to protect yourself, what vitamins you should be taking or how much sun you should be getting a day.




The NIH guidelines on how vitamins seem to work for it Supplements Summary Recommendations | COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines

CDC info on being outside in general (on a page about skin cancer) Are There Benefits to Spending Time Outdoors? | Skin Cancer | CDC


----------



## AnotherGuy

Cadence said:


> One of the top results on Google when looking for the two names together explains they're the same and why there is confusion.
> https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/y...imply formally,and chemically the same thing.



Right, so the 'new shots' will be labelled Comirnaty, which legally have FDA approval, which likely have yet to be released everywhere as vaccines centres are likely still using up their old stock of Pfizer which, again legally, do not have FDA approval, but only EUA (Emergency Use Approval).



Cadence said:


> The flu vaccine is a different formulation every year...



Are you comparing Covid to the Flu? I thought it was a big no-no to describe this as a bad flu although the epidemiologist Professor Ioannidis doesn't seem to think so.
To be fair there was an Israeli doctor last year that did say that if the flu is a 1 out of 10 in terms of seriousness, then Covid-19 would be a 2.



Cadence said:


> The NIH guidelines on how vitamins seem to work for it Supplements Summary Recommendations | COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines
> 
> CDC info on being outside in general (on a page about skin cancer) Are There Benefits to Spending Time Outdoors? | Skin Cancer | CDC



Shockingly bad but not surprising, particularly when there are multiple studies around the world reflecting those particular set of vitamins do assist against Covid-19. As for the 2nd article provided - linking spending time outdoors to skin cancer because everything one does has to be viewed at the extreme to give the perception that it doesn't work. It is a great marketing and misdirecting ploy.

Imagine we did that with everything, we just showcase the extremes to downplay the benefits - like drinking water, brushing one's teeth, combing one's hair, playing sport...etc


----------



## billd91

FitzTheRuke said:


> Well... companies have more power to block your "free" speech in the arenas that they control. Which to a lot of people are very important arenas indeed. But that's just a perception. If you get kicked off of Facebook/Instagram/Twitter/Whatever you still have full rights to speak freely. Just not on those platforms. They matter very little in the grand scheme of things, but they can be very important to any individual who sees them as important.



You do, like you always have. Yet there's a big difference between speaking your mind on a street corner and having an amplifying platform. It's a difference that a legalistic approach can't really fix - some people have always had more power with their speech than others because of those platforms (usually acquired by money).


----------



## Cadence

AnotherGuy said:


> Right, so the 'new shots' will be labelled Comirnaty, which legally have FDA approval, which likely have yet to be released everywhere as vaccines centres are likely still using up their old stock of Pfizer which, again legally, do not have FDA approval, but only EUA (Emergency Use Approval).




No.  They're the same.  They both have full approval for those 16+.









						Fact check: FDA has fully approved Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine
					

Claims that Pfizer's vaccine is not fully approved for the majority of Americans are wrong.



					www.usatoday.com
				






AnotherGuy said:


> Are you comparing Covid to the Flu? I thought it was a big no-no to describe this as a bad flu although the epidemiologist Professor Ioannidis doesn't seem to think so.
> To be fair there was an Israeli doctor last year that did say that if the flu is a 1 out of 10 in terms of seriousness, then Covid-19 would be a 2.




No, I'm giving an example of how approvals are viewed on vaccines.  Some people might think that vaccines that are identical but have different names need separate approval, even though ones that have their formulation changed every year are just fine (which I think they are).



AnotherGuy said:


> Shockingly bad but not surprising, particularly when there are multiple studies around the world reflecting those particular set of vitamins do assist against Covid-19.



My guess is that either the rigor and size of those studies wasn't enough for an official recommendation yet, or that the studies hadn't undergone formal review.   (Whereas the Pfizer vaccine one had those and did).  I think I have some posts upthread with the excess mortality in the US last year from COVID and it's a lot bigger than the difference between a small and big flu season, for example:






						Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
					

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.




					www.cdc.gov
				






AnotherGuy said:


> As for the 2nd article provided - linking spending time outdoors to skin cancer because everything one does has to be viewed at the extreme to give the perception that it doesn't work. It is a great marketing and misdirecting ploy.




It was the first CDC page that came up.  The page I linked starts with "Spending time outdoors can improve overall health and wellness. The outdoors offers many opportunities to be physically active. Time outdoors may also promote mental health and stress reduction. While enjoying the benefits of being outdoors, people can decrease skin cancer risk from too much UV exposure by using sun protection." with a link to a page on physical activity and its benefits.  It then notes "Having little or no sun exposure may put a person at risk for low levels of vitamin D, but too much UV exposure from the sun or artificial sources can increase risk of skin cancers and eye disease. "

Here's a CDC blogpost from 2017 pushing outdoor activities: Step it up outdoors |  Blogs | CDC.

Iirc cities were asked(?)/required(?) to have public parks and outdoor activity space during some pandemics in the early 1900s?


----------



## Umbran

AnotherGuy said:


> Sure, but given the new tech of these jabs and the fact that long term testing has not been done and they are still deemed experimental...
> Details matter.




Before you claim that details matter, you must have your details correct, and you do not.  The details are that these are not "experimental".  That is not what "emergency use authorization" means.  And, in fact, the Pfizer vaccine now has full FDA approval, and in no way, shape, or form can be considered "experimental".   Moderna will get their full authorization shortly.  

The spectre of long-term side effects is born out of ignorance.  You know what has _proven_ long-term effects?  Covid-19.  The most prominent covid-19 side effect is frelling _DEATH_.  So don't give me nonsense about supposed side effects.  

Vaccine misinformation is not acceptable on this site.    Take that drek elsewhere.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

AnotherGuy said:


> Right, so the 'new shots' will be labelled Comirnaty, which legally have FDA approval, which likely have yet to be released everywhere as vaccines centres are likely still using up their old stock of Pfizer which, again legally, do not have FDA approval, but only EUA (Emergency Use Approval).




Just to be clear- when you got called out on your misinformation, you doubled down.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Virtually none of the vaccines of the past century, in their original form, would get FDA approval.  The ability to test something from 1920, say, compared to 2020 isn't even close.




You know what wouldn't pass FDA approval these days?  Aspirin.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> You know what wouldn't pass FDA approval these days?  Aspirin.



Would it pass for prevention of heart attacks but not for pain relief?


----------



## Umbran

AnotherGuy said:


> Right, so the 'new shots' will be labelled Comirnaty, which legally have FDA approval, which likely have yet to be released everywhere as vaccines centres are likely still using up their old stock of Pfizer which, again legally, do not have FDA approval, but only EUA (Emergency Use Approval).




Dude, it is the _same product_, they just have a commercial name for it now.

Goodness gracious, it is like you meet a guy named Robert, someone steps up to call him Bob, and you ask to see his driver's license again, because you aren't sure who he is.



AnotherGuy said:


> Are you comparing Covid to the Flu?




No, he isn't.  He's talking about vaccine authorizations, using a common and safe vaccine as an example.

 You are filled with misinformation, and will no longer be posting in this thread.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Umbran said:


> You know what wouldn't pass FDA approval these days?  Aspirin.




Maybe- probably as OTC.

But it fell under GRAS/E when they reviewed.


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> Would it pass for prevention of heart attacks but not for pain relief?




If I recall correctly, it fails on pain relief due to gastric side-effects at the proper dose for pain relief.

Even today, it is iffy for heart attacks - the FDA doesn't recommend its use for such unless you have already had a heart attack, meaning your risk is elevated to the point where the drug side effect risks are acceptable.


----------



## Umbran

*Mod Note:*
Someone just got booted from the thread for spreading covid and vaccine misinformation.  No, we will not tolerate such on this site.


----------



## Maxperson

AnotherGuy said:


> I cannot comment on all that - but as far as I understood protecting your fellow people in this pandemic were the people with comorbidities and elderly, not the teenagers and young adults Big Pharma wants to milk for more profits. And I just wish ONE doctor from government, if they really gave a rat's ass about health, had gotten onto the TV and said this is what you should be doing to protect yourself, what vitamins you should be taking or how much sun you should be getting a day.



Vaccinating the kids and young adults(who can die from this) IS about protecting people with pre-existing conditions and the elderly.  Those kids and young adults can spread Covid to the others if they catch it.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> No, but I also don't think you're talking about the ability to infringe speech, but a much broader thing.




No, I'm pointing out what the framers of the Constitution were actually worried about.  They were concerned with the power of the State falling on people for BadWrongSpeech.  They were not concerned with whether John Q. Public could speak on the particular platform he wanted.



Thomas Shey said:


> In that context, I do really think companies have more power now than the government.  _In that context_.




I think you are conflating "disallowing use of a particular platform" with "infringement of speech".  This suggests a presupposition of _entitlement to platform_ which is guaranteed... nowhere.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> No, I'm pointing out what the framers of the Constitution were actually worried about.  They were concerned with the power of the State falling on people for BadWrongSpeech.  They were not concerned with whether John Q. Public could speak on the particular platform he wanted.




But yet I'll note they did stop at preventing punishment for speech, but infringing it all.  Because at the time, the only force big enough to do that meaningfully was government.



Umbran said:


> I think you are conflating "disallowing use of a particular platform" with "infringement of speech".  This suggests a presupposition of _entitlement to platform_ which is guaranteed... nowhere.




When, in practice, almost all meaningful speech is constrained by the chokepoints of a very limited number of platforms, I'm arguing there's not much meaningful difference.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Thomas Shey said:


> But yet I'll note they did stop at preventing punishment for speech, but infringing it all.  Because at the time, the only force big enough to do that meaningfully was government.




This is moving far afield of the topic, so I will only briefly address this. From a historical perspective, this is incorrect for the following reasons:
1. At the founding, there was a robust debate as to whether the First Amendment applied to only restrictions on speech (what we would call prior restraints), or also applied to punishments after you spoke. This issue was left unsettled for some time.
2. In addition, this was a specific restraint on the federal government; it did not apply to the states until much later. While some states protected speech, many did not.
3. Finally, almost everything people think about the First Amendment is the product of 20th Century judges; even through the late 19th Century, it was considered unexceptional for the government to restrict speech (for example, censorship by the post office).


Regardless of any of this, Umbran is correct- having a private platform not carry your message doesn't meaningfully restrict your ability to speak. Choose a different platform.

EDIT- to move it back to the topic, it would be a shame if SnarfBook was forced to carry Covid Misinformation because I had to "both sides" everything, regardless of what I wanted.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Edit: I think I'm going to drop this because, barring the question of barring misinformation (which I'm not hostile to no matter who's doing it) its manifestly offtopic for this thread.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> But yet I'll note they did stop at preventing punishment for speech, but infringing it all.  Because at the time....




At the time, there was no legal framework of what did and did not constitute "punishment" for them to apply such a concept in the document.  

Indeed, I just removed someone from this thread for spreading misinformation.  Was I "punishing" them, or I was I protecting the community from dangerous nonsense and acrimony from the arguments that would ensue if I had not?  



> When, in practice, almost all meaningful speech...




You do not have the right to "meaningful" speech.  You do not have a right to access some number of ears or eyes to listen to you.  You do not have the right of people listening to you at all.  Finding a platform is _your_ problem.  You seem to confuse the right of free speech to the right of access to audience of your choosing, and no, you do not have that, and that was never intended by the framers of the Constitution.

Edit:  Sorry, I was writing while you were bowing out.  I'll leave this out of a desire to not pretend things didn't happen.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Thomas Shey said:


> As I said, I have no problem with the idea you want to limit misinformation spread to the public woe; I just think (and nothing I've read here has changed my mind) that the ability to limit speech in the modern period is far more in the hands of private individuals than it has been in the past, and to act like that's somehow more acceptable seems to take a peculiar attitude toward what the point in limits on the government doing the same is.  But whether those limits are sometimes necessary (as they are here) is orthogonal to that.




This is entirely incorrect.

The ability to speak to a large audience, even a worldwide one, is much greater than it has ever been.

When, prior to the last decade or so, would a person normally be able to get an audience that is not just local, but national or international?

And to be clear- people aren't banned from the internet. There are numerous platforms; including numerous social media platforms, not to mention the ability to easily publicize your own information on your own site.

Quite simply, people today are complaining that they don't have the unfettered right to access global audiences however and whenever they want on private platforms. Which is something! I am quite sure that if someone argued, for example, that they were being denied free speech because, in 1970, CBS wasn't putting them on their nightly news to spew their opinions with Walter Cronkite, the thought would have been appropriately rubbished.

The fact that the crazy conspirator is able to do more than just scream at clouds in the local park due to modern technology doesn't mean that they have no speech rights- far from it.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Edit: Let myself be dragged back in, changed my mind.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Edit:  Sorry, I was writing while you were bowing out.  I'll leave this out of a desire to not pretend things didn't happen.




That's fair when I edited it after the fact.


----------



## cmad1977

AnotherGuy said:


> Sure, but given the new tech of these jabs and the fact that long term testing has not been done and they are still deemed experimental, I'm not so sure you can discount their hesitancy and equate them to jabs of old - which have gone through the standard testing process and are not deemed experimental. Details matter.




This isn’t accurate at all.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

To be clear: mRNA vaccine tech is @20 years old. The only thing “experimental” about it is the efficacy of new vaccines using the technology, not the tech itself.

Right now, it’s being adopted as THE industry standard going forward in large part because of the speed with which new & effective vaccines can be created.  Some in the pharma world have declared older methodologies functionally “dead” or “dying”.  Another plus is their decreased odds of harmful side effects compared to old tech vaccines using killed or weakened viruses.

It’s also showing promise as a method by which we can produce vaccines for pathogens that have- thus far- eluded scientists’ attempts to create vaccines to.  This- plus its speed- can also potentially aid in fighting viruses that mutate rapidly (influenza) or combat diseases that affect so few people that they’re not “economically feasible“ to develop vaccines for- the so called orphan diseases.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Dannyalcatraz said:


> To be clear: mRNA vaccine tech is @20 years old. The only thing “experimental” about it is the efficacy of new vaccines using the technology, not the tech itself.
> 
> Right now, it’s being adopted as THE industry standard going forward in large part because of the speed with which new & effective vaccines can be created.  Some in the pharma world have declared older methodologies functionally “dead” or “dying”.  Another plus is their decreased odds of harmful side effects compared to old tech vaccines using killed or weakened viruses.
> 
> It’s also showing promise as a method by which we can produce vaccines for pathogens that have- thus far- eluded scientists’ attempts to create vaccines to.  This- plus its speed- can also potentially aid in fighting viruses that mutate rapidly (influenza) or combat diseases that affect so few people that they’re not “economically feasible“ to develop vaccines for- the so called orphan diseases.




Sounds awesome. I look forward to what we discover about it in the future. With over three billion people having taken the various COVID vaccines at this point, I just don't understand how anyone could consider them "untested" anymore. That's a LOT of testing.


----------



## Cadence

FitzTheRuke said:


> Sounds awesome. I look forward to what we discover about it in the future. With over three billion people having taken the various COVID vaccines at this point, I just don't understand how anyone could consider them "untested" anymore. That's a LOT of testing.




I think it comes down to using the "right" news sources.


----------



## J.Quondam

Cadence said:


> I think it comes down to using the "right" news sources.



Pretty charitable way of saying "angry canned ham with a radio show".


----------



## Zardnaar

Free speech thing is also context. When the constitution was written you could still get imprisoned for "insulting vtge king". Extreme cases death and the charge was very broad. 

 I think a French knight got executed for "insulting the king" and he slept with the king's sisters. 

 1776: you still had absolute monarchs in Europe. All it does is protect you from the government not your fellow citizens reactions. Or employers reaction.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> To be clear: mRNA vaccine tech is @20 years old. The only thing “experimental” about it is the efficacy of new vaccines using the technology, not the tech itself.
> 
> Right now, it’s being adopted as THE industry standard going forward in large part because of the speed with which new & effective vaccines can be created.  Some in the pharma world have declared older methodologies functionally “dead” or “dying”.  Another plus is their decreased odds of harmful side effects compared to old tech vaccines using killed or weakened viruses.
> 
> It’s also showing promise as a method by which we can produce vaccines for pathogens that have- thus far- eluded scientists’ attempts to create vaccines to.  This- plus its speed- can also potentially aid in fighting viruses that mutate rapidly (influenza) or combat diseases that affect so few people that they’re not “economically feasible“ to develop vaccines for- the so called orphan diseases.



Unfortunately there are still some people who can't understand that we no longer give people Cow Pox, in order to protect them from Small Pox.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> I think it comes down to using the "right" news sources.




  Heh yeah we have the broadcasting standards authority here. You can complain to them about what gets screened. 

 No Murdoch media for some strange reason. Most news I find is sensationalist to various degrees. Boring doesn't get views I suppose.

 I like DW on YouTube.

 Cuba using its own vaccines. Mostly tried and true technology but they're vaccinating toddlers from age 2+. First on world.


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> "angry canned ham with a radio show".




_yoink_ this phrase...


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Most news I find is sensationalist.




News is expensive to produce, what with all the reporters who have to go to far-flung locations.  And the news is in competition with _every other media_ for eyeballs.  If they did it straight, it wouldn't get viewership, and wouldn't be here at all.

You know what tends to improve the quality of news, and reduce misinformation?  Robustly funded, but independent, public radio/news.  Things like NPR in the US.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> _yoink_ this phrase...




It is a brilliant phrase. 

 In lockdown started looking after this thing. 




 Stray, starving etc. He yowls a bit outside but is a more reliable source than angry ham. He's getting rehomed tonight. Things to do in lockdown.


----------



## Zardnaar

Meanwhile in 1918.Sound familiar?


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Meanwhile in 1918.Sound familiar?
> 
> View attachment 143909



The "obey cheerefully the rules..." part tends to get the backs up of certain people.


----------



## Cadence

Ogden, Utah Standard on 6 Dec1918




San Francisco Chronicle on 22 Oct 1918


----------



## Garthanos

Yup and such a simple thing... my country is full of primitives faking modernity, that would be right at home a hundred years ago


----------



## FitzTheRuke

You won't find me saying bad things about the vaccines, but sometimes I just gotta laugh. 

Here's a line from a news article in Canada under the headline "Pfizer, Moderna COVID-19 vaccines get full Health Canada approval — and new names!"

"Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine will now be known as “Comirnaty,” Health Canada wrote. Moderna’s, meanwhile, has been dubbed “Spikevax” and AstraZeneca’s will be called “Vaxzevria.”"

WTH? ... Vaxzevria? Is that a planet in an old Sci-Fi pulp? LOL.


----------



## J.Quondam

__





						Medicine names
					

Medicine name generator. 10,000's of names are available, you're bound to find one you like.



					www.fantasynamegenerators.com


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Meanwhile in 1918.Sound familiar?




_Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose._


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> Yup and such a simple thing... my country is full of primitives faking modernity, that would be right at home a hundred years ago




We are apes with smartphones.


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> "Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine will now be known as “Comirnaty,”




And, this at least has an origin: Comirnaty is an agglomeration of the words “Covid-19 immunity” and “mRNA,” the latter indicating the technology that makes the vaccine work. As a whole, the word is intended to evoke “community.”


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> And, this at least has an origin: Comirnaty is an agglomeration of the words “Covid-19 immunity” and “mRNA,” the latter indicating the technology that makes the vaccine work. As a whole, the word is intended to evoke “community.”



Sure, that's how they came up with it. Still looks like gibberish on the page. Of course, nearly ALL medicines are named like this. I find it mildly silly, is all. YMMV.


----------



## Thomas Shey

And there genuinely _is_ a problem with trademark-capable names being, well, heavily used up.  Its why so many drugs sound like SF names now.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> And, this at least has an origin: Comirnaty is an agglomeration of the words “Covid-19 immunity” and “mRNA,” the latter indicating the technology that makes the vaccine work. As a whole, the word is intended to evoke “community.”



To me, it sounds like it the name was this girl’s idea:


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Thomas Shey said:


> And there genuinely _is_ a problem with trademark-capable names being, well, heavily used up.  Its why so many drugs sound like SF names now.



_raises hand
_
I have named at least one PC that saw action after something in my medicine cabinet.  Klor-Khan was a 1/2 Orc bounty Hunter (Ranger with Humans & Orcs as favored enemies).  Klor-Con is a brand name for potassium supplements.

Ambien the Enchanter works, too.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A Kentucky court refused to direct a hospital to administer ivermectin to treat a Covid-infected man at the behest of his wife (a nurse of some kind).  In the decision, the court took note of the law that prevents the admission of junk science into evidence.  Similar laws exist in most US jurisdictions.  (Each has its own standards for distinguishing junk science from the real deal, of course.)








						She demanded a hospital treat her husband's covid-19 with ivermectin. A judge said no.
					

After her husband was infected with the coronavirus and entered an intensive care unit this month, Angela Underwood pushed the Louisville hospital that was treating him to administer ivermectin, the deworming drug some people have used to treat or prevent covid-19 in recent months. She sued...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> _raises hand
> _
> I have named at least one PC that saw action after something in my medicine cabinet.  Klor-Khan was a 1/2 Orc bounty Hunter (Ranger with Humans & Orcs as favored enemies).  Klor-Con is a brand name for potassium supplements.
> 
> Ambien the Enchanter works, too.




 1E mate had Barbarian named Voltaran (spelling?).

 I think you mentioned this first? 









						Idaho hospitals begin rationing health care amid COVID surge
					

BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Idaho public health leaders announced Tuesday that they activated “crisis standards of care” allowing health care rationing for the state's northern hospitals because there are more coronavirus patients than the institutions can handle.




					apnews.com
				




 Triage by any other name?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Yep.  Crisis triage.

Noting for clarity: nowhere in that article does it say that a patient’s unvaccinated status will be taken into account.  That’s conforming to my understanding of medical ethics standards.

Instead, they ask (again) for people to mask up and get vaccinated, as well as to avoid/cut back on a bunch of risky behaviors.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yep.  Crisis triage.
> 
> Noting for clarity: nowhere in that article does it say that a patient’s unvaccinated status will be taken into account.  That’s conforming to my understanding of medical ethics standards.
> 
> Instead, they ask (again) for people to mask up and get vaccinated, as well as to avoid/cut back on a bunch of risky behaviors.




 They seemed to be pussyfooting around it but non vaccinated generally get it worse so they didn't outright state it. 

  Also the article said they quietly announced it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> They seemed to be pussyfooting around it but non vaccinated generally get it worse so they didn't outright state it.
> 
> Also the article said they quietly announced it.



What I meant was- contrary to the desires I’ve seen around the Internet- they’re not altering triage procedures to deprioritize the willfully unvaccinated.  IOW, even though some would like to see it happen, they’re not “punishing” the antivaxxers by putting them at the end of the line.

Which is consistent with general medical ethics practices.  _Yes_, antivaxxers are materially contributing to their own problems via their choices, but so are a lot of people who wind up seeking health care services.

For example: I overeat, causing me issues with weight, joint pain and hypertension.  In addition, I have mild food allergies, but I don’t avoid those foods in my diet.  I’m voluntarily contributing to conditions that could negatively affect my health.

So are people who drink too much, do drugs, practice parkour, skateboard, drive without seatbelts, etc.


----------



## Cadence

Dannyalcatraz said:


> What I meant was- contrary to the desires I’ve seen around the Internet- they’re not altering triage procedures to deprioritize the willfully unvaccinated.  IOW, even though some would like to see it happen, they’re not “punishing” the antivaxxers by putting them at the end of the line.
> 
> Which is consistent with general medical ethics practices.  _Yes_, antivaxxers are materially contributing to their own problems via their choices, but so are a lot of people who wind up seeking health care services.
> 
> For example: I overeat, causing me issues with weight, joint pain and hypertension.  In addition, I have mild food allergies, but I don’t avoid those foods in my diet.  I’m voluntarily contributing to conditions that could negatively affect my health.
> 
> So are people who drink too much, do drugs, practice parkour, skateboard, drive without seatbelts, etc.




There are certain places where there are punishments on the insurance end.  Our state health insurance plan charges more for smokers, for example (they might have an out if they actively participate in a smoking cessation program).  The key there is probably hitting a tipping point where the majority are against the behavior though.


----------



## Cadence

Will not be doing the upcoming MtG Midnight Hunt pre-release in person (unlike the last one a few months ago where delta wasn't full out yet).  Son's second shot will have had its full kick in a couple weeks from now, so in plenty of time for the Crimson Vow one in November.  So we'll probably hit that one assuming everyone is as happy to mask as they were last time.

Planning last spring, we were hoping that this fall we'd finally be able to take a trip to meet his grandparents halfway in TN this fall (after missing the last two trips in the spring when we'd usually do it).   We wouldn't be hanging out close to others or in big groups, but my worry is hospital space if something non-COVID goes bad with one of their health condition.  The way they're going, I'm not sure it will be down.  (Looks like Florida, for example, is finally getting back down to the worst they were last spring).


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> There are certain places where there are punishments on the insurance end.




Yep.

Folks do need to consider the consequences of that too, though.  If someone is unvaccinated, and can't afford the extra charge, they will lose their insurance.   If they need major health services _of any kind_ (not just for covid) then they are going to get hit with a _massive_ bill... and become among those people who lose their homes and all due to medical bankruptcy.  

Someone doesn't get vaccinated - are you ready to make them, and their family, their kids and grandma, who have no strong part in the decisions - homeless and jobless for that?  Because it'll happen.

There are no simple answers when people are dumb _en masse_.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> Yep.
> 
> Folks do need to consider the consequences of that too, though.  If someone is unvaccinated, and can't afford the extra charge, they will lose their insurance.   If they need major health services _of any kind_ (not just for covid) then they are going to get hit with a _massive_ bill... and become among those people who lose their homes and all due to medical bankruptcy.
> 
> Someone doesn't get vaccinated - are you ready to make them, and their family, their kids and grandma, who have no strong part in the decisions - homeless and jobless for that?  Because it'll happen.
> 
> There are no simple answers when people are dumb _en masse_.




I think here the smoking penalty in SC is just $25 per month as an insurance surcharge.  Delta is $200/month for not having the COVID shot.

I wonder what the overlap is between those against universal health care and those against getting vaccinated is.   (Not enough to want a response and derail the thread into politics though).  Even so I'm not saying they should get that harsh of a punishment even if they're asking for it.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> What I meant was- contrary to the desires I’ve seen around the Internet- they’re not altering triage procedures to deprioritize the willfully unvaccinated.  IOW, even though some would like to see it happen, they’re not “punishing” the antivaxxers by putting them at the end of the line.
> 
> Which is consistent with general medical ethics practices.  _Yes_, antivaxxers are materially contributing to their own problems via their choices, but so are a lot of people who wind up seeking health care services.
> 
> For example: I overeat, causing me issues with weight, joint pain and hypertension.  In addition, I have mild food allergies, but I don’t avoid those foods in my diet.  I’m voluntarily contributing to conditions that could negatively affect my health.
> 
> So are people who drink too much, do drugs, practice parkour, skateboard, drive without seatbelts, etc.



I find that rather interesting, given the number of cases in which I have heard of motorcyclists being given less than stellar treatment, in hospital ERs, because they choose a "dangerous" passtime. A friend, who was both an ER doctor and a motorcycle racer, at the time, documented how his own hospital was de prioritizing motorcyclists who were brought into the hospital, along with the various "murdercycle" and "donorcycle" jokes made by staff. I haven't seen any actual scholarly studies on such things, but it would be interesting to see a statistical analysis on whether Covid patients who are not vaccinated do actually receive a different level of treatment, medical ethics notwithstanding.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Cadence said:


> There are certain places where there are punishments on the insurance end.  Our state health insurance plan charges more for smokers, for example (they might have an out if they actively participate in a smoking cessation program).  The key there is probably hitting a tipping point where the majority are against the behavior though.



Exactly.  I mentioned something like that before.  

And insurance companies can do that because it’s not unethi in their field- they’re not healthcare providers, they’re financial institutions.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ryujin said:


> I find that rather interesting, given the number of cases in which I have heard of motorcyclists being given less than stellar treatment, in hospital ERs, because they choose a "dangerous" passtime. A friend, who was both an ER doctor and a motorcycle racer, at the time, documented how his own hospital was de prioritizing motorcyclists who were brought into the hospital, along with the various "murdercycle" and "donorcycle" jokes made by staff. I haven't seen any actual scholarly studies on such things, but it would be interesting to see a statistical analysis on whether Covid patients who are not vaccinated do actually receive a different level of treatment, medical ethics notwithstanding.



There’s the old saw about calling them “organ donors” as well.

Thing is, there’s lots of stories about that, but no clear evidence that it actually happens.  I suspect a lot of it is tall/cautionary tales that circulate in every ER in the world.


----------



## Cadence

Ryujin said:


> I find that rather interesting, given the number of cases in which I have heard of motorcyclists being given less than stellar treatment, in hospital ERs, because they choose a "dangerous" passtime. A friend, who was both an ER doctor and a motorcycle racer, at the time, documented how his own hospital was de prioritizing motorcyclists who were brought into the hospital, along with the various "murdercycle" and "donorcycle" jokes made by staff. I haven't seen any actual scholarly studies on such things, but it would be interesting to see a statistical analysis on whether Covid patients who are not vaccinated do actually receive a different level of treatment, medical ethics notwithstanding.




I can't imagine the frustration of spending much of one's time helping folks who are sick/injured/whatnot because of self inflicted things or doing things that were more dangerous or having something that one would be completely blamed for in uncharitable moments - drunk driver in an accident, obese person with a heart attack, self administered  drug overdose, unvaxed person with covid, child shot with unsecured gun, hurt while texting while driving, thrown from car without seatbelt, helmet less bicycler injury, someone elderly fell of their roof - even if the fault might not be the person doing it or there were quite possibly extenuating circumstances the health care worker didn't know about.  Especially if a lot of your other cases seem completely unfair like the person hit by the drunk driver, or the infant not buckled in by their parents, or someone shot in a robbery, or the juvenile cancer patient...  

They of course are supposed to just help everyone equally with no reactions.  Sometimes I'm glad they just don't all quit.  I wonder what percent would get pulled if we had a device to sense lesser performance due to blaming the patient (as opposed to things like exhaustion).  And I wonder if the difference in care is enough to make programs to help healthcare workers overcome those judgements a thing that should happen? (Is it something that could be part of programs to reduce errors?).


----------



## Thomas Shey

Though if it gets bad enough to get into actual triage, there's probably going to be some de-facto bias against the unvaccinated simply because the numbers tell you they're less likely to recover than those that are, though it may not be presented that way (it'll be cloaked in prognosis values and such, but its still going to lean against the unvaccinated because of the realities).  I'm not sure to what degree its gotten down to full blown triage yet, though.


----------



## Hussar

Terrifying thought.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Triage, when traced back to its original meaning, is kind of a terrifying term.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s the old saw about calling them “organ donors” as well.
> 
> Thing is, there’s lots of stories about that, but no clear evidence that it actually happens.  I suspect a lot of it is tall/cautionary tales that circulate in every ER in the world.



The ER in question was the closest urgent care facility to a race track.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s the old saw about calling them “organ donors” as well.




Especially in New Hampshire, where helmets are optional.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

I just spent about an hour arguing with an anti-vax customer (I've known him for 25 years, as a customer, so I thought it was worth engaging... like a fool.) It _was_ interesting, if futile. I learned the main difference between "us" and "them" (IMO):

They don't understand _Hanlon's Razor_. "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity".

The main difference in our perspectives is that he thinks that people are malicious enough to organize on a global scale to use a (in his words) relatively minor outbreak a bid to seize power.

I think, sure, they'll probably use this pandemic to try what they can to make money/power grab/yadda yadda, but generally feebly and obviously, and not nefariously (and there's NO WAY, IMO that anyone could have _created_ the pandemic for this purpose). There's just no way. People are too foolish to pull off something like that.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Conspiracy thinking in general always requires swallowing a degree of coordination and control that simultaneously assumes massive ability, massive malice, and a striking degree of pettiness all at once.


----------



## billd91

Thomas Shey said:


> Conspiracy thinking in general always requires swallowing a degree of coordination and control that simultaneously assumes massive ability, massive malice, and a striking degree of pettiness all at once.



Sure, but is also soothes them in the sense that they feel someone or thing is in active control of the situation. Even though it‘s not them in charge, it makes the situation seem less insane and chaotic. Plus, they get to play the victim card so nothing is their fault.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FitzTheRuke said:


> I just spent about an hour arguing with an anti-vax customer (I've known him for 25 years, as a customer, so I thought it was worth engaging... like a fool.) It _was_ interesting, if futile. I learned the main difference between "us" and "them" (IMO):
> 
> They don't understand _Hanlon's Razor_. "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity".
> 
> The main difference in our perspectives is that he thinks that people are malicious enough to organize on a global scale to use a (in his words) relatively minor outbreak a bid to seize power.
> 
> I think, sure, they'll probably use this pandemic to try what they can to make money/power grab/yadda yadda, but generally feebly and obviously, and not nefariously (and there's NO WAY, IMO that anyone could have _created_ the pandemic for this purpose). There's just no way. People are too foolish to pull off something like that.



It’s not that they can’t grasp Hanlon’s Razor.  Many do- usually when their “side“ is being accused of something.  There’s more going on.

A big part is projecting.  There’s a lot of people thinking, “That’s what I would do (or have done) in ____________ situation, therefore, that is what THEY are doing.”  Or to put it differently, they have seen what can be achieved with malice by “their guys”, so they assume Hanlon’s Razor does not apply or is simply not true more often than not.  IOW, there’s a rejection of the Razor’s predictive value.

Dig deeper, and the same applies to Occam’s Razor.  Using _that_ tool shreds most conspiracy theories, but again, the Razor’s value is outright dismissed.

(Of course, Razors are *tools*, not *proofs*, so…)

There’s even some studies showing predispositions to certain ways of thought correlated to (not necessarily caused by) structural differences in the brains of conservatives and liberals.








						Conservative and Liberal Brains Might Have Some Real Differences
					

Scanners try to watch the red-blue divide play out underneath the skull




					www.scientificamerican.com


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> A Kentucky court refused to direct a hospital to administer ivermectin to treat a Covid-infected man at the behest of his wife (a nurse of some kind).  In the decision, the court took note of the law that prevents the admission of junk science into evidence.  Similar laws exist in most US jurisdictions.  (Each has its own standards for distinguishing junk science from the real deal, of course.)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> She demanded a hospital treat her husband's covid-19 with ivermectin. A judge said no.
> 
> 
> After her husband was infected with the coronavirus and entered an intensive care unit this month, Angela Underwood pushed the Louisville hospital that was treating him to administer ivermectin, the deworming drug some people have used to treat or prevent covid-19 in recent months. She sued...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



There was a similar case in Ohio where a judge reversed a prior court order that had instructed a hospital to administer that drug.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> I think here the smoking penalty in SC is just $25 per month as an insurance surcharge.  Delta is $200/month for not having the COVID shot.
> 
> I wonder what the overlap is between those against universal health care and those against getting vaccinated is.   (Not enough to want a response and derail the thread into politics though).  Even so I'm not saying they should get that harsh of a punishment even if they're asking for it.




 Just to be clear the insurance companies are charging you an extra 200 a month for no jab?


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Just to be clear the insurance companies are charging you an extra 200 a month for no jab?



In that case it is the airline charging it to their employees  - but the airline is in the employees health insurance provider.  (The company is self insured/self funded with a company hired to administer the insurance plan).


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

So data is starting to show up that there ARE real world differences in the long term efficacy of the various vaccines.








						Big gap between Pfizer, Moderna vaccines seen for preventing COVID hospitalizations
					

Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine does a significantly better job of preventing COVID-19 hospitalizations compared with Pfizer's shot.




					www.yahoo.com
				




Personally, I had the Pfizer shot, so my risk will be slightly higher than for my Dad, who got the Moderna injection.  OTOH, I’m not too concerned because 77% is better than some flu vaccines- late in the season, some can drop to under 50% efficacy,


----------



## Cadence

Dannyalcatraz said:


> So data is starting to show up that there ARE real world differences in the long term efficacy of the various vaccines.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Big gap between Pfizer, Moderna vaccines seen for preventing COVID hospitalizations
> 
> 
> Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine does a significantly better job of preventing COVID-19 hospitalizations compared with Pfizer's shot.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Personally, I had the Phizer shot, so my risk will be slightly higher than for my Dad, who got the Moderna injection.  OTOH, I’m not too concerned because 77% is better than some flu vaccines- late in the season, some can drop to under 50% efficacy,



I want to go look up the updated stats on the extra occurrence of side effects of various magnitudes.  (How many expected days of being bed ridden as a side effect is an extra 5% of protection from hospitalization worth?  Is it worth the time out for a booster to avoid that?  Is the entire discussion just feeding some segment of anti-vaxers?)

Also want to look up how the study controlled for who got which. Did some choose Pfizer due to side effect talk, for example.


----------



## ad_hoc

FitzTheRuke said:


> I just spent about an hour arguing with an anti-vax customer (I've known him for 25 years, as a customer, so I thought it was worth engaging... like a fool.) It _was_ interesting, if futile. I learned the main difference between "us" and "them" (IMO):
> 
> They don't understand _Hanlon's Razor_. "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity".
> 
> The main difference in our perspectives is that he thinks that people are malicious enough to organize on a global scale to use a (in his words) relatively minor outbreak a bid to seize power.
> 
> I think, sure, they'll probably use this pandemic to try what they can to make money/power grab/yadda yadda, but generally feebly and obviously, and not nefariously (and there's NO WAY, IMO that anyone could have _created_ the pandemic for this purpose). There's just no way. People are too foolish to pull off something like that.




It's weird that so many conspiracy theories come down to what capitalists do in the open. There is no need for a conspiracy there, people are just doing it.

Though often in these 'power grab/global dominance' conspiracies it is rooted in anti-Semitism whether the conspiracists know the history of their conspiracy or not.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

ad_hoc said:


> It's weird that so many conspiracy theories come down to what capitalists do in the open. There is no need for a conspiracy there, people are just doing it.
> 
> Though often in these 'power grab/global dominance' conspiracies it is rooted in anti-Semitism whether the conspiracists know the history of their conspiracy or not.




I agree. Even the tendency to equate their loss of "freedom" to the current government being "nazis" (or at least "nazi-like", smacks of anti-Semetism to me. Like, we're not even close to that. I think if you can go there you show a fundamental lack of understanding of (or perhaps belief in?) the Holocaust.

I'm not saying that there's not unfavorable agendas at play or that the methods we are using to combat the pandemic are all, always, wholly altruistic... but still, the main goal here is to end the pandemic, not oppress people. It's not the same thing at all. Not even over the horizon.


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> I agree. Even the tendency to equate their loss of "freedom" to the current government being "nazis" (or at least "nazi-like", smacks of anti-Semetism to me. Like, we're not even close to that. I think if you can go there you show a fundamental lack of understanding of (or perhaps belief in?) the Holocaust.
> 
> I'm not saying that there's not unfavorable agendas at play or that the methods we are using to combat the pandemic are all, always, wholly altruistic... but still, the main goal here is to end the pandemic, not oppress people. It's not the same thing at all. Not even over the horizon.



There's a reason why Godwin's Law exists. Just saying


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Ryujin said:


> There's a reason why Godwin's Law exists. Just saying




Yes. I suppose I count as having perpetrated the principle, even if I was only trying to counter the ridiculous analogy.


----------



## Imaculata

Ryujin said:


> There's a reason why Godwin's Law exists. Just saying



Yeah, I consider it an example of that. When people no longer have solid arguments, they often invoke Godwin's Law, and at that point all discussion is over really.


----------



## Ryujin

Imaculata said:


> Yeah, I consider it an example of that. When people no longer have solid arguments, they often invoke Godwin's Law, and at that point all discussion is over really.



Though remarking upon Godwin's Law does not, itself, Godwin a thread.

Some people just have to extend an arguement to absolute ridiculous levels, beyond any and all reason, in order to try and win the internets.

Not talking about you, @FitzTheRuke. Just speaking about the same people that you were. "Do you agree with Nazis?! Because if that's your stance on this, then you agree with Nazis!!!!" Except, of course, when the conversation is about actual Nazis.


----------



## Rabulias

To some folks, I think they think of Nazis like the "Soup Nazi" from _Seinfeld_ or "Grammar Nazis" correcting their writing. To them a Nazi = "a person who does not let me do what I want."


----------



## Mirtek

Thomas Shey said:


> Though if it gets bad enough to get into actual triage, there's probably going to be some de-facto bias against the unvaccinated simply because the numbers tell you they're less likely to recover than those that are, though it may not be presented that way (it'll be cloaked in prognosis values and such, but its still going to lean against the unvaccinated because of the realities).  I'm not sure to what degree its gotten down to full blown triage yet, though.



Only under equal circumstances. The data, at least in Germany, shows that the unvaccinated otherwise healthy 20-years old is still more likely to recover than the 65-years double vaccinated with a breakthrough infection.

And even under equal circumstances there may be no more differences. Being fully vaccinated massively reduces the risk of the 65-years old to develop a case so bad that he ends up in intensive care. But once he still got it so bad that he needs intensive care his chances may be about the same as the unvaccinated 65-years old in the bed next to him. That he might be the only fully vaccinated among 20 unvaccinated is a good statistic for vaccination in general, but unfortuntely no longer relevant for him personally.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Mirtek said:


> Only under equal circumstances. The data, at least in Germany, shows that the unvaccinated otherwise healthy 20-years old is still more likely to recover than the 65-years double vaccinated with a breakthrough infection.




I suspect if you peel out the 65 year olds with other co-morbidities you'll find that's not true.  At least it hasn't been in the studies I've seen account for it (its just that, unsurprisingly, 65 year olds are much more likely to have one or more co-morbidities).



Mirtek said:


> And even under equal circumstances there may be no more differences. Being fully vaccinated massively reduces the risk of the 65-years old to develop a case so bad that he ends up in intensive care. But once he still got it so bad that he needs intensive care his chances may be about the same as the unvaccinated 65-years old in the bed next to him. That he might be the only fully vaccinated among 20 unvaccinated is a good statistic for vaccination in general, but unfortuntely no longer relevant for him personally.




Again, doesn't seem true in the casework I've seen; being vaccinated helps the whole way up the process, because it influences exactly how bad it'll get at every point in the line.  Naturally, if you're in the ICU it may be the difference becomes subtle, but keep in mind that's not the first point triage is going to occur; in some places that's going to go all the way back to being hospitalized at all.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

I spoke to a customer yesterday who works as a radiologist at a local hospital. He says that 100% of the current hospitalizations (at his hospital - he's not speaking for elsewhere but it illustrates a point) are people who are totally unvaccinated. They lost a 29 year old this week who had no known previous health issues. Sad.

He said vaccinated people are occasionally brought in, having caught it, but are usually fine enough to be sent home quickly.

That's one person's perspective for what it's worth.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> I want to go look up the updated stats on the extra occurrence of side effects of various magnitudes.  (How many expected days of being bed ridden as a side effect is an extra 5% of protection from hospitalization worth?  Is it worth the time out for a booster to avoid that?  Is the entire discussion just feeding some segment of anti-vaxers?)
> 
> Also want to look up how the study controlled for who got which. Did some choose Pfizer due to side effect talk, for example.




 I would have chosen Moderna if I had a choice but they went all in on Pfizer. Either way those two were my first picks. 

  Last two weeks we'e been hovering around 13-30 cases a day and woke up today to learn that they've found Covid outside Auckland. 

 I think this is week 5 of level 4 lockdown for Auckland. Apparently there's been more breaches this time around and lockdown fatifue is a thing. 

  Announcement in 8 hours or so.


----------



## Cadence

Our school district  (one of the few in the state requiring masks) has around 8,900 students and is down to:
77 student cases + 338 quarantined
5 staff cases + 2 quarantined

Two nearby unmasked districts:
One has about 3x the size with 277 student cases (2,865 quarantined) and 50 staff (56 quarantined)
One has about 2x the size with 161 student cases (871 quarantined) and 25 staff (15 quarantined).


The University requires masks but has a surprisingly low vaccination rate.  64% of students, 64% of staff, 74.8% of faculty.  With around 33,000 students it is down to:
367 student cases
19 for faculty and staff.


----------



## J.Quondam

Overheard some antivaxxers this morning talking about an article they read about a child unable to have a surgery because "the hospitals are too obsessed with the stupid coronavirus."
Say what? 

This nasty, willful stupidity is so wearisome. I don't know how (or even _if_) to confront this idiocy anymore.


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> I don't know how (or even _if_) to confront this idiocy anymore.




Confronting idiocy has limited immediate beneficial effect on the idiot in question.  So then we get into context as a gauge for when and how to engage.


----------



## niklinna

Info about a book published just before the big C dropped – The Psychology of Pandemics

"All this has happened before, and all this will happen again."


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Confronting idiocy has limited immediate beneficial effect on the idiot in question.  So then we get into context as a gauge for when and how to engage.



Like Twain said, "Never argue with an idiot. They'll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience." On the other hand if you can maintain the high ground and there are sufficient witnesses, you might make educational use of such a person as counter-example.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> On the other hand if you can maintain the high ground and there are sufficient witnesses, you might make educational use of such a person as counter-example.




Yeah, but so many people lose the first part of that - maintaining the high ground.


----------



## J.Quondam

Unfortunately, maintaining the high ground isn't especially helpful when completely surrounded by well-armed loons, as one tends to be in those benighted places where idiocy is deeply woven into the local political cultural fabric.


----------



## Zardnaar

Our local looms aren't that bad or at least there's not enough of them.


----------



## Thomas Shey

If you're in the wrong place here, you can find virtually everyone you run into is one when it comes to COVID, or is at least faking it by keeping their head low.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> If you're in the wrong place here, you can find virtually everyone you run into is one when it comes to COVID, or is at least faking it by keeping their head low.




 Doesn't get rewarded here politically. One bunch tried a US approach went from 47% 2017 to 21% few days ago in a poll. 

 I won't go into to many gritty details but they pulled the UK/US/Sweden Covid approach last year and got slaughtered during the election.


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> Unfortunately, maintaining the high ground isn't especially helpful when completely surrounded by well-armed loons, as one tends to be in those benighted places where idiocy is deeply woven into the local political cultural fabric.




Well, this was in the context of making an educational example out of said loon - seems like that wouldn't apply in the situation you describe.


----------



## Umbran

And, about loons - the state of Alabama's death rate has exceeded its birth rate due to covid.  









						Covid deaths push Alabama past grim milestone: A shrinking population
					

“Our state literally shrunk in 2020,” state health officer Dr. Scott Harris said.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## Umbran

And, I have just put my main in-person gaming group on hold again - one of them has unvaccinated kids at home, and that raises risks all around with Delta.  We'll be keeping watch on the state's numbers every couple of weeks to judge if getting together is a good idea.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> And, about loons - the state of Alabama's death rate has exceeded its birth rate due to covid.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid deaths push Alabama past grim milestone: A shrinking population
> 
> 
> “Our state literally shrunk in 2020,” state health officer Dr. Scott Harris said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com



I have a friend who works in a government agency in Alabama, who is required to do face-to-face meetings with clients in order to evaluate them. No work from home solution possible. She did everything right; double-vaxxed, mask, social distancing... She still ended up getting Covid because she just couldn't avoid contact with infected people (vaccines not being 100% effective). Fortunately it ended up hitting like a mild flu, so was practically a two week vacation.


----------



## Hussar

Heh, just had a conversation with a buddy who insisted that Pfizer and whatnot isn't a "vaccination" because they are not using the actual virus like you do with other types of vaccines.  Kept going on about positive and negative spikes or some such.  

I'll admit, I didn't quite understand everything he was saying, mostly because frankly, I haven't really kept up with things as well as maybe I should have.  The doctors say take the vaccine (or whatever) and I take it.  They tell me to wear a mask, I wear a mask.  What's the point of having experts in the field that spend years and years and more years studying this stuff if you're going to question everything they say?  Particularly when I know beyond a shadow of a doubt he didn't understand what they were saying and was just parroting.  

I wonder if people do the same sort of thing with everything in their lives.  Do people argue with their mechanic to the point of insisting that their mechanic (and every other mechanic they go to) is conspiring to damage their car?  When their toilet backs up and the plumber comes and says you need to do X, Y and Z, and after a second opinion that says the same thing, do people just live in their own feces?  

Or, is it we are only supposed to distrust people who went to university?  It just baffles me endlessly.


----------



## Thomas Shey

I've absolutely seen people who will assume that mechanics are ripping them off and charging for things they don't need, in addition to things they do.

People have a great distrust in general for being at the mercy of people who understand things they don't.  The COVID situation just has added a lot of social and political weight on top of that.


----------



## Retreater

Well my wife and I just officially postponed our wedding reception (again - for the third time). Looking at July '22, for something originally planned for April '20.  
Not only have we already have gotten married, but we've also bought a house and gone on our honeymoon before we've had the reception.
But to bring it back to gaming, the thought of ever getting together in-person to roll physical dice at an actual table seems impossible. My state is at its worse place since the pandemic started. Vaccines are wearing off, giving us about two months of "normal." No evidence it's going to get any better.


----------



## cmad1977

Retreater said:


> Well my wife and I just officially postponed our wedding reception (again - for the third time). Looking at July '22, for something originally planned for April '20.
> Not only have we already have gotten married, but we've also bought a house and gone on our honeymoon before we've had the reception.
> But to bring it back to gaming, the thought of ever getting together in-person to roll physical dice at an actual table seems impossible. My state is at its worse place since the pandemic started. Vaccines are wearing off, giving us about two months of "normal." No evidence it's going to get any better.




Nightmare. My states on top of it seemingly. Something like… 1200 cases in the schools with a population of almost 700k students and staff. A handful of cases at my kids elementary school but no linked cases or spread.


----------



## Umbran

How to put this delicately?

Resistance to getting vaccinated may well earn you a Darwin Award.









						Evidence Links COVID-19 Infections to Erectile Dysfunction - News & Guts Media
					

Evidence is mounting that erectile dysfunction is one of the symptoms of long Covid. The phenomenon was identified by Italian researchers in April, when they discovered that COVID-19 was associated with a six-fold increase in developing erectile dysfunction. Urologist weren’t surprised by the...




					www.newsandguts.com


----------



## cmad1977

Umbran said:


> How to put this delicately?
> 
> Resistance to getting vaccinated may well earn you a Darwin Award.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Evidence Links COVID-19 Infections to Erectile Dysfunction - News & Guts Media
> 
> 
> Evidence is mounting that erectile dysfunction is one of the symptoms of long Covid. The phenomenon was identified by Italian researchers in April, when they discovered that COVID-19 was associated with a six-fold increase in developing erectile dysfunction. Urologist weren’t surprised by the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsandguts.com




Not to mention a Herman Caine Award.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> How to put this delicately?
> 
> Resistance to getting vaccinated may well earn you a Darwin Award.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Evidence Links COVID-19 Infections to Erectile Dysfunction - News & Guts Media
> 
> 
> Evidence is mounting that erectile dysfunction is one of the symptoms of long Covid. The phenomenon was identified by Italian researchers in April, when they discovered that COVID-19 was associated with a six-fold increase in developing erectile dysfunction. Urologist weren’t surprised by the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsandguts.com


----------



## Rabulias

A little levity for our tragedy:





Hopefully it will get the point (pun intended) across to some people!


----------



## Thomas Shey

If that's real, that's one funeral home owner with a really dark sense of humor.


----------



## Ryujin

Thomas Shey said:


> If that's real, that's one funeral home owner with a really dark sense of humor.



It's real. I've seen other pictures of it, elsewhere.


----------



## J.Quondam

Spotted this comic a little while ago:


Spoiler


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I don’t recall anyone posting this here:

TL; DR: Florida’s newly appointed Surgeon General has decided parents will decide if their kids with COVID diagnoses will quarantine or not.  Said appointee was part of that group one of whose members postulated COVID was caused by “demon seed”.

IOW, DeSantis appointed a known quack to spearhead/be the fall guy for Florida’s future actions during the pandemic.  

This is evil puppetry indeed.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

J.Quondam said:


> Spotted this comic a little while ago:
> 
> 
> Spoiler
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 144240



I've heard a bunch of different metaphors and analogies for it, and I like this one, but I think the best one is comparing them to mandated seatbelts. 

Seatbelts aren't foolproof. They won't save your life 100% of the time, but they save thousands of lives every year. Sometimes things can go wrong and they hurt or even kill people, but they're overwhelmingly a good thing. Seatbelts have been mandated for decades now, and almost all of us have gotten used to it and not claimed that it was some assault on your "freedoms". No one has a religious belief that allows them to not wear their seatbelt. And now that they've been mandated for longer than most of us have been alive, the majority of the people that die in car accidents are the ones that didn't just simply buckle up. 

You may not know someone that died because they didn't wear their seatbelt, but you probably know someone that was saved because they wore won. I know that I was, back when my mother got in a car accident when she was pregnant with me. 

Vaccines are like seatbelts. They're not foolproof. If you have severe allergic reactions, are immunosuppressed, or have other health conditions, the vaccine might actually harm you if you get it, just like seatbelts occasionally trap passengers inside vehicles. Mandating seatbelts and vaccines is nothing new, and isn't taking away your freedom, because your freedom only goes so far (it stops at the line of "taking away someone else's freedoms", which death is included in). They're both simple things that can protect you and those around you (wearing your own seatbelt won't protect others most of the time, but it can, especially if an accident would send you flying at other people). People that get vaccinated, just like people who wear seatbelts, are far less likely to die in an accident/from the virus than those that don't do the simple precaution. 

If you're pro-seatbelt-mandates, through the same logic, you should also be pro-vaccine-mandates.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I actually do know someone who certainly was saved by a seatbelt.  He wore them sporadically: he chose so to to on his way home during a break in college back in the 1980s.

Traveling up I35 from San Antonio to Dallas, his car hydroplaned under a semi.  The belt kept him in the driver’s seat, the only part of the car not turned into a pancake.  He got out of the car- with his new removable car stereo- before the first responders arrived.  They thought he was a bystander, and started asking if he knew where the bodies were.

AFAIK, he’s still wearing them every time.


----------



## Imaculata

My mother's life was saved by seatbelts AND airbags.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

…come to think of it, my mom & I were in the middle of a 4 car hit-and-run chain reaction collision in which my Volvo  popped a wheelie, landing in the trunk of the taxi in front of us.  Seatbelts kept us in place, and the crumple zones did their job.  

Oddly, the airbags did NOT deploy.

Hilariously, as I’m calling 911, phoning Dad to let him know what happened, etc., Mom was in a verbal loop, repeating “Un-F******-believable!” again and again for 10 minutes or so.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> It's real. I've seen other pictures of it, elsewhere.




It is real, in that the truck is a real physical object that exists.  The images are not photoshopped.

However, there's no sign yet that an actual "Wilmore Funeral Home" exists as a business.









						Did a Funeral Home Advertise Using the Slogan 'Don't Get Vaccinated'?
					

Photographs of a truck advertising "Wilmore Funeral Home" in North Carolina emerged in September 2021. But who was really behind the campaign?




					www.snopes.com


----------



## Mallus

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I don’t recall anyone posting this here:
> 
> TL; DR: Florida’s newly appointed Surgeon General has decided parents will decide if their kids with COVID diagnoses will quarantine or not.  Said appointee was part of that group one of whose members postulated COVID was caused by “demon seed”.



Is that a typo? Is it supposed to read "New Florida Witchfinder General"?


----------



## briggart

Thomas Shey said:


> If that's real, that's one funeral home owner with a really dark sense of humor.



Not sure if that one is real, but this one definitely is:





 
First one reads: "No to masks, No to social distancing"
Second one is:"Don't get vaccinated, we're ready to handle a pandemic"


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A window into the near future of fighting pandemics:









						The next pandemic is already happening – targeted disease surveillance can help prevent it
					

Sustained surveillance for disease outbreaks at global hot spots may be the key to preventing the next pandemic. MR.Cole_Photographer/Getty ImagesAs more and more people around the world are getting vaccinated, one can almost hear the collective sigh of relief. But the next pandemic threat is...




					news.yahoo.com
				




Also, a ruling in one of the early employee liberties vs vaccine mandates goes to the employers:








						U.S. court upholds hospital employee COVID-19 vaccine rule in test case
					

A federal judge on Friday ruled that a Cincinnati, Ohio-area healthcare provider could require its employees get vaccinated against COVID-19 or risk losing their job, in what appears to be the first ruling of its kind for a private employer in the United States.  The employees of St. Elizabeth...




					finance.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Also, a ruling in one of the early employee liberties vs vaccine mandates goes to the employers:




In Massachusetts, the Governor has instituted a vaccine mandate for government workers - including the state police.  The state police union pushed back on that, and a judge has told them to shove it and get vaccinated already.









						Judges Denies State Police Bid For Injunction On Vaccine Mandate
					

The decision leaves unvaccinated troopers with just days to get their first dose of the Pfizer vaccine or face potential disciplinary action, including the loss of their job, when they are not fully vaccinated by mid-October.




					www.wbur.org
				




The real annoying thing here was that one of the things they wanted was to allow testing instead of vaccination, but then if any officer had to leave the force due to covid, or died of it, it would be treated as a "line of duty" death an injury, which makes a difference in benefits.

So, they recognize that it can maim or kill, and want benefits for it, but don't want to get vaccinated.  Sheesh.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

You can’t have your cake and breathe it, too.


----------



## Hussar

Meanwhile in Canada:



			
				Ottawa Citizen said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, anyone hoping to make the argument that businesses have a duty to accommodate their choice not to get vaccinated on human rights grounds should take a look at the Ontario Human Rights Commission’s new policy statement on COVID-19 vaccine mandates and proof-of-vaccination certificates.
> 
> “OHRC’s position is that a person who chooses not to be vaccinated based on personal preference does not have the right to accommodation under the (Human Rights Code),” the commission wrote.
> 
> While “creed” is a protected ground under the code, which an unvaccinated person could try to argue their choice not to get the shot falls under, “the OHRC is not aware of any tribunal or court decision that found a singular belief against vaccinations or masks amounted to a creed within the meaning of the Code.”
> 
> Further, the commission writes, “personal preferences or singular beliefs do not amount to a creed for the purposes of the Code.”




This should be interesting.









						COVID-19: Ontario eases restrictions on indoor, outdoor event venues; Province reports 727 new cases, 65 in Ottawa
					

The seven-day average in Ontario is now 655 daily cases.




					ottawacitizen.com


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> Meanwhile in Canada:
> 
> 
> 
> This should be interesting.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19: Ontario eases restrictions on indoor, outdoor event venues; Province reports 727 new cases, 65 in Ottawa
> 
> 
> The seven-day average in Ontario is now 655 daily cases.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ottawacitizen.com



I'm already seeing people start to get their backs up about the "proof of vaccination status" bit. Right now the only proof that we have is to show the form we received when vaccinated, either in print or via email, as proof as no "passport" system currently exists. As the university where i work is requiring either proof of vaccination or ongoing screening via test, I had to send that information in. One of my co-workers who had recent health issues, but refused to get vaccinated, actually retired over the issue.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Meanwhile, in Idaho, Governor Brad Little said he would fine businesses with over 100 employees if they enacted a mask mandate.

Its almost like the Mayor in _Jaws_ told people they could only go swimming if they wore swimsuits of freshly butchered meat.

In other Covid news, people in NY who are fired for refusing to be vaccinated will not be eligible for unemployment benefits in most cases.  However:



> New York is unique from most states in that “a worker who refuses an employer’s directive to get vaccinated may be eligible for [unemployment insurance] in some cases if that person’s work has no public exposure and the worker has a compelling reason for refusing to comply with the directive,” according to the state Department of Labor’s website.


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Meanwhile, in Idaho, Governor Brad Little said he would fine businesses with over 100 employees if they enacted a mask mandate.
> 
> Its almost like the Mayor in _Jaws_ told people they could only go swimming if they wore swimsuits of freshly butchered meat.



Because when you're facing rationing health care, you want to double-down on COVID risk. The stupidity of some people and their politics.








						Idaho hospitals begin rationing health care amid COVID surge
					

BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Idaho public health leaders announced Tuesday that they activated “crisis standards of care” allowing health care rationing for the state's northern hospitals because there are more coronavirus patients than the institutions can handle.




					apnews.com


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> You can’t have your cake and breathe it, too.




And, following up on this one -

When questioned about the threat of folks quitting the State Police, the Massachusetts Governor said, "We'll have to continue to work hard with our folks at the Mass. State Police and our folks in the Legislature to make sure that we fund classes and that we recruit aggressively to refill the ranks." 

So, yeah, not putting up with it.

Edit to add:  So, in the original reporting on this issue, it was said that "dozens" of officers were prepared to hand in their resumes.  In rhetoric, that became scores and hundreds.  Turns out... there's _ONE_ known documented case of an officer resigning over this.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> And, following up on this one -
> 
> When questioned about the threat of folks quitting the State Police, the Massachusetts Governor said, "We'll have to continue to work hard with our folks at the Mass. State Police and our folks in the Legislature to make sure that we fund classes and that we recruit aggressively to refill the ranks."
> 
> So, yeah, not putting up with it.
> 
> Edit to add:  So, in the original reporting on this issue, it was said that "dozens" of officers were prepared to hand in their resumes.  In rhetoric, that became scores and hundreds.  Turns out... there's _ONE_ known documented case of an officer resigning over this.



Turns out that even though a lot of people say "I'd rather lose my job than get vaccinated!!!", when it actually comes down to it, the vast majority realize how much it sucks to lose your job and instead get the vaccine (while grumbling about it, of course). 

It feels like I should be angry about them being so selfish and prideful, but I'm just happy that more people are getting vaccinated.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Tangential: Got my flu shot and shingrix vaccines yesterday.  Only side effect so far is the shingrix injection site feels like I got bro-punched in the upper arm.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Tangential: Got my flu shot and shingrix vaccines yesterday.  Only side effect so far is the shingrix injection site feels like I got bro-punched in the upper arm.



I got that feeling from the Moderna vax, both times. I didn't think that you were supposed to get other vaccines around the same time as the Covid vax?


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

When people say, “It’s my choice to vaccinate. Who am I hurting?”

A lot of people. You are hurting a lot of people.


----------



## J.Quondam

Antivaxxers are becoming so threatening in some locales that healthcare workers have to carry panic buttons for their own safety.









						Health workers get panic buttons as COVID deniers get violent
					

Overworked health workers face jeers, harassment, attacks amid wave of cases.




					arstechnica.com
				




Why in hell are those freedummies so damn _broken_?


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> Why in hell are those freedummies so damn _broken_?




You want an honest answer to this?  I have probably spoken on this somewhere upthread, but after 400 pages over a year and a half, we shouldn't expect anyone to remember..

The basic answer to this is that humans beings aren't nearly so rational as they like to think.  

It would not be inaccurate to say that humans really have two different cognitive systems.  One is logical, and it is pretty slow.  The other is fast, but associated with emotion and memory, rather than much rational analysis.  This second system is there for making snap decisions, from back when we needed to feel fear when we saw a jaguar in the brush, or anger when we had to fight, and so on.

The problem is that this emotional system is also largely sub-conscious.  So, when you get some stimulus or information, the emotional system responds _first_, and then your logical systems chime in and, without realizing it, humans generally pick among the rational responses the one that _most closely matches_ their emotional responses.

And, unfortunately, we don't usually recognize this is happening.  Which means that someone who knows what they are doing can manipulate us.


----------



## niklinna

Umbran said:


> And, unfortunately, we don't usually recognize this is happening. Which means that someone who knows what they are doing can manipulate us.



And with modern social media giving such people an unprecedently tight feedback loop to refine their techniques....


----------



## billd91

niklinna said:


> And with modern social media giving such people an unprecedently tight feedback loop to refine their techniques....



And don’t forget a propaganda outlet stoking the emotional system.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ryujin said:


> I got that feeling from the Moderna vax, both times. I didn't think that you were supposed to get other vaccines around the same time as the Covid vax?



I don’t know for sure.  However, since I got my C19 (Phizer) back in March, I’m well clear.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> You want an honest answer to this?  I have probably spoken on this somewhere upthread, but after 400 pages over a year and a half, we shouldn't expect anyone to remember..
> 
> The basic answer to this is that humans beings aren't nearly so rational as they like to think.
> 
> It would not be inaccurate to say that humans really have two different cognitive systems.  One is logical, and it is pretty slow.  The other is fast, but associated with emotion and memory, rather than much rational analysis.  This second system is there for making snap decisions, from back when we needed to feel fear when we saw a jaguar in the brush, or anger when we had to fight, and so on.
> 
> The problem is that this emotional system is also largely sub-conscious.  So, when you get some stimulus or information, the emotional system responds _first_, and then your logical systems chime in and, without realizing it, humans generally pick among the rational responses the one that _most closely matches_ their emotional responses.
> 
> And, unfortunately, we don't usually recognize this is happening.  Which means that someone who knows what they are doing can manipulate us.



You said it once before, but it bears repeating…


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Snarf Zagyg said:


> When people say, “It’s my choice to vaccinate. Who am I hurting?”
> 
> A lot of people. You are hurting a lot of people.



I read that one earlier today.


----------



## Imaculata

I think another part of the problem is that we have all underestimated the danger that anti vaxers and conspiracy theorists pose. We should have been taking it a lot more serious, because a lot of them are dangerous zealots.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Imaculata said:


> I think another part of the problem is that we have all underestimated the danger that anti vaxers and conspiracy theorists pose. We should have been taking it a lot more serious, because a lot of them are dangerous zealots.




It seems that their propaganda has infected the minds of many otherwise reasonable people to "ask questions" and "wait and see". There's a group of people that I don't entirely blame for being vaccine hesitant - they are just scared because they've read or heard too much BS. Then there are the originators of the BS. THOSE guys I don't forgive.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

My Dad- an MD- just got an email about this from the state medical society a few days ago.









						Instead of just getting vaccinated, anti-vaxxers are drinking iodine antiseptic
					

Another ineffective treatment for COVID-19 is being promoted in anti-vaccine and science-skeptical circles.First there was hydroxychloroquine, then ivermectin; now, according to multiple reports, some Americans are gargling and/or ingesting the iodine-based liquid Betadine to prevent COVID-19 —...




					www.rawstory.com
				




So far, there aren’t many cases here in Texas, but they wanted healthcare providers to be aware of the situation.


----------



## Hussar

I know this is probably too political, but, at what point do "protesters" become "terrorists"?  

The radicalization of Canada and America is a truly, truly terrifying thing to see.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Hussar said:


> I know this is probably too political, but, at what point do "protesters" become "terrorists"?



Not sure. But "actively working to harm others" is probably pretty close to that line. 


Hussar said:


> The radicalization of Canada and America is a truly, truly terrifying thing to see.



It's even worse when you've seen your friends and family members fall into the trap and endanger themselves and others for their personal "freedumbs". I haven't talked with almost anyone from my father's side of the family (including my father) in 2 years now because of this (the issue existed before, Covid-19 and the pandemic just compounded it).


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> I know this is probably too political, but, at what point do "protesters" become "terrorists"?
> 
> The radicalization of Canada and America is a truly, truly terrifying thing to see.




 When they start using violence for fear/political goals.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Merck is seeking emergency use approval of its new ORAL antiviral against Covid-19.









						Merck says its new Covid pill reduces the risk of hospitalization, death by half for some patients
					

Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics will seek emergency authorization for their drug, which they say could have “a profound impact in controlling the pandemic.”




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> I know this is probably too political, but, at what point do "protesters" become "terrorists"?




Legally or in the moral/ethical sense?

Legally, the US Code defines domestic terrorism as activities that...

involve acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the United States or of any State;
appear to be intended—
to intimidate or coerce a civilian population;
to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or
to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and

occur primarily within the territorial jurisdiction of the United States;


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> Legally or in the moral/ethical sense?
> 
> Legally, the US Code defines domestic terrorism as activities that...
> 
> involve acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the United States or of any State;
> appear to be intended—
> to intimidate or coerce a civilian population;
> to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or
> to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and
> 
> occur primarily within the territorial jurisdiction of the United States;



That's a pretty clear and classic definition, but a counter I'd seen to recent years is this:

Terrorism is what rich men call a poor man's tactics.  because rich men can afford armies and bombs, and poor men can't. And calling it terrorism lets them incite the people against the poor men.

Now I don't think that makes it right, but I do keep that thought in mind. Because what else has the poor man got for an option in a war against a government? Especially when you consider what conditions might place yourself in making war against a perceived oppressor. Remember January 6th and what if they'd won.


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> That's a pretty clear and classic definition, but a counter I'd seen to recent years is this:
> 
> Terrorism is what rich men call a poor man's tactics.




What part of, "Legally or in the moral/ethical sense?" failed to register?


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> What part of, "Legally or in the moral/ethical sense?" failed to register?



Rules of morality and ethics are generally a shield for the powerful because they keep the powerful from being targeted by tactics that are "unfair", "unchivalrous", "cowardly", basically anything that doesn't follow their own methods which leverage their own power advantage. This is why almost every group that fights a bigger power in asymmetric warfare is typically branded as terrorists. 

Terrorism is pretty much always a loaded and politically controversial definition. Even the one you cite can be used to brand rioters targeting their oppressors or aiming to pressure the government as terrorists.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> Rules of morality and ethics are generally a shield for the powerful




There are so many points to unpack there - like conflating the rules themselves with the enforcement of same - and almost all of them are about politics, so... no thanks, I'm not biting.



billd91 said:


> Terrorism is pretty much always a loaded and politically controversial definition. Even the one you cite can be used to brand rioters targeting their oppressors or aiming to pressure the government as terrorists.




Yeah, well, let us not pretend that it is possible to design systems that _cannot_ be abused.  Furthermore, let us not blame the system for what are, ultimately, abuses by people.  

I mean, you're a gamer - we have a term "rules lawyer" for a reason.


----------



## Filthy Lucre

billd91 said:


> Rules of morality and ethics are generally a shield for the powerful because they keep the powerful from being targeted by tactics that are "unfair", "unchivalrous", "cowardly", basically anything that doesn't follow their own methods which leverage their own power advantage. This is why almost every group that fights a bigger power in asymmetric warfare is typically branded as terrorists.
> 
> Terrorism is pretty much always a loaded and politically controversial definition. Even the one you cite can be used to brand rioters targeting their oppressors or aiming to pressure the government as terrorists.



So, you're saying that "might makes right", are you not?


----------



## billd91

Filthy Lucre said:


> So, you're saying that "might makes right", are you not?



In many cases, it does because might makes the rules, passes the laws, and is most capable of enforcing them (and then, somehow denies that they break their own rules whenever it suits them). It's no surprise that social standards of behavior are put in place by powerful people and that adhering to those standards keeps the powerful in their place. You see it everywhere from patriarchal dress codes in schools to pressure to not talk about salaries at work to rules of warfare.

Ultimately, it's complex. But if you want to fight power, you probably need to get dirty because you lack the power to fight them at the same level.
And that's more than enough politics for one day.


----------



## Filthy Lucre

billd91 said:


> In many cases, it does because might makes the rules, passes the laws, and is most capable of enforcing them (and then, somehow denies that they break their own rules whenever it suits them). It's no surprise that social standards of behavior are put in place by powerful people and that adhering to those standards keeps the powerful in their place. You see it everywhere from patriarchal dress codes in schools to pressure to not talk about salaries at work to rules of warfare.
> 
> Ultimately, it's complex. But if you want to fight power, you probably need to get dirty because you lack the power to fight them at the same level.
> And that's more than enough politics for one day.



So, this would imply that these powerful people are justified in using whatever tactics they have at their disposal to enact their will. As long as you accept that, given what I've seen you say, no one can ever use a moral justification. If you say that "No, powerful people aren't justified in using whatever tactics they want" you'd need to explain why you're able to suss out this distinction, but when someone tries to suss out a distinction between morally permissible and morally impermissible violence THAT distinction is conveniently just an artifact of an unjust power structure.


----------



## billd91

Filthy Lucre said:


> So, this would imply that these powerful people are justified in using whatever tactics they have at their disposal to enact their will. As long as you accept that, given what I've seen you say, no one can ever use a moral justification.



They *always *feel they're justified. Whether or not people agree with that is a different question. What people are going to do about it if they feel they are not justified is yet another. The universe doesn't care who's right.


----------



## Filthy Lucre

billd91 said:


> They *always *feel they're justified. Whether or not people agree with that is a different question. What people are going to do about it if they feel they are not justified is yet another. The universe doesn't care who's right.



No, according to you they *are* justified - because might makes right, as you've already said. Either it's a metaphysical principle, in which case it would always hold for everything; OR it's just a practical fact of life. The latter of course would mean that you would have to reneg on your earlier position that the weak are not bound to act in morally permissible ways.


----------



## BookTenTiger

If this is too political, please let me know!

I've been reading articles about "red Covid" (Covid deaths are much higher now in Republican-voting states and counties) and it makes me think about how we as a country treat inequality. For example, there is supposed to be intervention when there is, say, lead in the drinking water. I wonder if we are going to have to develop a new concept of "information inequality" in order to solve this problem.


----------



## Filthy Lucre

BookTenTiger said:


> If this is too political, please let me know!
> 
> I've been reading articles about "red Covid" (Covid deaths are much higher now in Republican-voting states and counties) and it makes me think about how we as a country treat inequality. For example, there is supposed to be intervention when there is, say, lead in the drinking water. I wonder if we are going to have to develop a new concept of "information inequality" in order to solve this problem.



The problem will solve itself ;D


----------



## BookTenTiger

Filthy Lucre said:


> The problem will solve itself ;D



I'm not sure this kind of judgment is useful. As much as I may disagree with the politics of communities who are refusing vaccines, celebrating their deaths isn't helpful.

I think a lot of people in these communities are victims of false information. While we have always known that disinformation can be damaging, but I think we are truly seeing now how deadly it can be. I'm hoping this helps us see misinformation as an equality issue, not just a partisan issue.


----------



## Filthy Lucre

BookTenTiger said:


> I'm not sure this kind of judgment is useful. As much as I may disagree with the politics of communities who are refusing vaccines, celebrating their deaths isn't helpful.
> 
> I think a lot of people in these communities are victims of false information. While we have always known that disinformation can be damaging, but I think we are truly seeing now how deadly it can be. I'm hoping this helps us see misinformation as an equality issue, not just a partisan issue.



I'm not "celebrating" their deaths - I just don't care.

I may be more pessimistic on this issue than you are: I do not believe this divide we're seeing can be bridged, *ever*. Victims of false information or not, there are certain communities that are clearly more susceptible to it than others and I do not believe there is anything we can do to change people's predispositions.


----------



## Umbran

BookTenTiger said:


> I've been reading articles about "red Covid" (Covid deaths are much higher now in Republican-voting states and counties) and it makes me think about how we as a country treat inequality. For example, there is supposed to be intervention when there is, say, lead in the drinking water. I wonder if we are going to have to develop a new concept of "information inequality" in order to solve this problem.




The observed pattern is not the result of fundamental lack of access or opportunity - these folks have as much access to CNN, Reuters, and NPR as they do to Fox News, and nothing is preventing them from choosing differently.  So isn't very analogous to most inequalities we see, and the usual approaches to inequality do not apply.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Filthy Lucre said:


> I'm not "celebrating" their deaths - I just don't care.
> 
> I may be more pessimistic on this issue than you are: I do not believe this divide we're seeing can be bridged, *ever*. Victims of false information or not, there are certain communities that are clearly more susceptible to it than others and I do not believe there is anything we can do to change people's predispositions.



So just to be clear, putting a winky face after talking about people you don't agree with dying is usually interpreted as celebrating their death.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Umbran said:


> The observed pattern is not the result of fundamental lack of access or opportunity, and so isn't very analogous to most inequalities we see, and so the usual approaches to inequality do not apply.



The fact that COVID deaths are tracking along political lines makes me wonder if we do need to treat this as an equity issue, though. If higher death rates are linked to a lack of a resource (information or education), at what point does it become analogous with other inequalities?

I don't have any finalized ideas about this, but I think it's interesting to think about, and also perhaps a more humane approach.


----------



## Filthy Lucre

BookTenTiger said:


> So just to be clear, putting a winky face after talking about people you don't agree with dying is usually interpreted as celebrating their death.



You can be amused by something and not celebrate it. And to even couch this in terms of 'agreement' is absurd and dishonest. This isn't a "disagreement" about whether 5e or 3.5 is the best edition of D&D. It's over objective, demonstrable facts.

When people who huff bleach to own the libs die, it's funny. That doesn't mean I think that they *deserved *to die, or that I'm *glad *that they're dead.


----------



## Umbran

BookTenTiger said:


> The fact that COVID deaths are tracking along political lines makes me wonder if we do need to treat this as an equity issue, though. If higher death rates are linked to a lack of a resource (information or education), at what point does it become analogous with other inequalities?




We should note, "linked to," and, "is caused by" are not equivalent, and that can muddy the question of how to deal with the issue.  Correlation does not imply causation, and all that.

Anyone who can watch FOX News can watch CNN, and so on - so it is not a matter of lack of the information resource.  

What analysis I have seen suggests that economic status and education levels (which are not independent) are not strong predictors here.  Yes, we get the image in media of uneducated folks not getting vaccinated, but that's anecdotal, and ignores how many uneducated or lower-income folks _do_ get vaccinated, when the vaccines are made available.

That leaves the strong suggestion that "freedumb" as it has been called here, is mostly a political problem, and not an access issue.


----------



## Cadence

BookTenTiger said:


> So just to be clear, putting a winky face after talking about people you don't agree with dying is usually interpreted as celebrating their death.




A lot of stories about schadenfreude in the media lately...









						It's not that weird to feel schadenfreude when COVID-deniers get COVID
					

Media scolds are lambasting a forum that celebrates COVID skeptics getting COVID. They're missing the bigger picture




					www.salon.com
				












						Is it immoral if you feel schadenfreude about Trump’s Covid-19?
					

The ethics of feeling smug about another’s misfortune, explained.




					www.vox.com
				












						After a COVID skeptic falls to the disease, people ask an awkward question: Should we care?
					

As the COVID-19 deaths now occur almost exclusively among the unvaccinated, who certainly were forewarned, a hardness is seeping into society, writes Danny Westneat. "The pandemic ... is making me a colder and more callous person," one reader notes.




					www.seattletimes.com


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> A lot of stories about schadenfreude in the media lately...




So, as we look at this, we should remember that it isn't just simple schadenfreude.  

Generally speaking, the people we are talking about aren't _just_ rejecting vaccines now, for example.  They have broadly been resisting and eschewing any and all approaches to controlling the issue - masking, avoiding group gatherings, lockdowns, and so on.  So, these people are not just victims.  They are not just victims of their own bad choices.  Many of us, and our families, and our economic situations, are victims of their choices.  The entire pandemic would have been under better control if not for their recalcitrance.  A great many of the nearly 700K deaths in the US were _preventable_, but for them.

Basically, in aggregate, they have been committing a kind of assault against the rest of us.  Pardon us if we don't care much when they commit assault against _themselves_ too.


----------



## Filthy Lucre

Umbran said:


> So, as we look at this, we should remember that it isn't just simple schadenfreude.
> 
> Generally speaking, the people we are talking about aren't _just_ rejecting vaccines now, for example.  They have broadly been resisting and eschewing any and all approaches to controlling the issue - masking, avoiding group gatherings, lockdowns, and so on.  So, these people are not just victims.  They are not just victims of their own bad choices.  Many of us, and our families, and our economic situations, are victims of their choices.  The entire pandemic would have been under better control if not for their recalcitrance.  A great many of the nearly 700K deaths in the US were _preventable_, but for them.
> 
> Basically, in aggregate, they have been committing a kind of assault against the rest of us.  Pardon us if we don't care much when they commit assault against _themselves_ too.



And here you thought we weren't going to get along.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Filthy Lucre said:


> And here you thought we weren't going to get along.



Umbran's generally very reasonable, if a little lecture-y (I mean it with all love, Umbran!)


----------



## J.Quondam

Looks like they're having some pretty decent success developing drugs to treat covid directly. In a strange pop cultural twist, they're naming it after Thor's Hammer, Mjolnir.








						Meet molnupiravir, Merck’s Thor-inspired pill that hammers COVID
					

In Phase III trial, the drug smashed hospitalization and death rate by about half.




					arstechnica.com
				



As these sorts of treatments come out,  it will be interesting to see if antivaxxers (or their political media manipulators) accept them or avoid them, because reasons.


----------



## Umbran

Filthy Lucre said:


> And here you thought we weren't going to get along.




And here, you thought it was personal.


----------



## Eltab

J.Quondam said:


> Looks like they're having some pretty decent success developing drugs to treat covid directly.
> 
> As these sorts of treatments come out,  it will be interesting to see if antivaxxers (or their political media manipulators) accept them or avoid them, because reasons.



One of the problems we face is distrust (often earned) of Experts Telling People What To Do, so a product you can buy when you find out you were exposed and take at home without having to get Official Permission first, will be a good thing.

If this can be advertised to the public in the same vein as "take your vitamins" (One-A-Day, Flintstones, Geritol), it will help break the current dysfunctional cycle.


----------



## Zardnaar

Survived 1918 flu, fascists in Italy WW2, Covid gets her aged 105. 









						Woman who survived 1918 flu, world war succumbs to Covid-19
					

Primetta Giacopini's life was packed with love, loss and adventure spanning two continents. Now it has ended as it began - in a pandemic.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




  Looks like Covid containment here is failing. Cases aren't skyrocketing but to many unknown cases turning up and people aren't following the rules. 

 Seems to have gotten into the gangs and homeless elements. Vaccination rates also slowed as everyone who wants one has gotten it I suppose. Wife got her second shot last night. 

 Went from around 25% to 80% in a couple of months for first jab,second jab rates not as high die to the 3-6 week wait between jabs. 

 Aucklands spend two months in lockdown but this is the 4th one for them diminishing returns sets in.


----------



## J.Quondam

Eltab said:


> One of the problems we face is distrust (often earned) of Experts Telling People What To Do, so a product you can buy when you find out you were exposed and take at home without having to get Official Permission first, will be a good thing.
> 
> If this can be advertised to the public in the same vein as "take your vitamins" (One-A-Day, Flintstones, Geritol), it will help break the current dysfunctional cycle.



I could be mistaken, but I think this particular med would be prescription only, at least at first?  If so, the deniers will still have to deal with the experts. 
I suspect it will boil down to whether antivaxxers' get permission from their trusted* political pundits to take the "untrusted" experts at face value and accept the treatment. Unfortunately, if there's any hint that this could be politically convenient for the wrong people, I won't be surprised if there continue to be a lot of refuseniks.

_* pretty much always unearned._


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> I could be mistaken, but I think this particular med would be prescription only, at least at first?




Indeed.  With an emergency use authorization, you'll need a prescription, and will only be able to get it if you have tested positive and are under a doctor's care. 



J.Quondam said:


> Unfortunately, if there's any hint that this could be politically convenient for the wrong people, I won't be surprised if there continue to be a lot of refuseniks.




Well, in this case, the drug isn't a _preventative_.  By description, it is administered only once you already have the disease.  So, refusing this isn't making you more of a direct threat to others - just the indirect threat of burden to the healthcare system when you need hospitalization.


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> Legally or in the moral/ethical sense?
> 
> Legally, the US Code defines domestic terrorism as activities that...
> 
> involve acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the United States or of any State;
> appear to be intended—
> to intimidate or coerce a civilian population;
> to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or
> to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and
> 
> occur primarily within the territorial jurisdiction of the United States;



My point was a bit more rhetorical than this, but, sure.  So, can someone explain to me how these people are not terrorists.  Other than the really, REALLY big elephant in the room?


----------



## Garthanos

BookTenTiger said:


> I'm not sure this kind of judgment is useful. As much as I may disagree with the politics of communities who are refusing vaccines, celebrating their deaths isn't helpful.
> 
> I think a lot of people in these communities are victims of false information. While we have always known that disinformation can be damaging, but I think we are truly seeing now how deadly it can be. I'm hoping this helps us see misinformation as an equality issue, not just a partisan issue.



Not just false information ... poor distribution of valuable tools like the vaccines. Access is far worse in red states


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> So, can someone explain to me how these people are not terrorists.




I have to admit that I am not sure which "these people" you mean now.  Could you be more specific?


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> My point was a bit more rhetorical than this, but, sure.  So, can someone explain to me how these people are not terrorists.  Other than the really, REALLY big elephant in the room?



 Being a jackass or assaulting people doesn't make you a terrorist as such. 

 Might be violating other laws.


----------



## Zardnaar

Local Covidiots. 









						Hundreds break lockdown rules to protest restrictions
					

Police say there have been no arrests or infringements issued after more than 1000 people turned up to an anti-lockdown protest in Auckland's domain arranged by Destiny Church leader Brian Tamaki.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Trained in USA "prosperity doctrine" BS preys on pasifika. Guess what groups getting infected the most with the worst health outcomes?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> One of the problems we face is distrust (often earned) of Experts Telling People What To Do, so a product you can buy when you find out you were exposed and take at home without having to get Official Permission first, will be a good thing.
> 
> If this can be advertised to the public in the same vein as "take your vitamins" (One-A-Day, Flintstones, Geritol), it will help break the current dysfunctional cycle.



As pointed out, this is going to be by prescription only _at least _until it gets full approval.  And even then, it may not become OTC for years.  Or ever,


----------



## Imaculata

Another thing we are seeing worldwide, is a lot of the vaccine hesitancy occuring in strong religious communities. And sometimes we even see churches encouraging their members not to get vaccinated.

I think governments need to take a stronger stance against that, and simply pull their tax exempt status for doing that.


----------



## Zardnaar

That's my theory to. Removal of tax exemption. 

 Here theoretically they can shut the churches down if there's an outbreak there. 

 They haven't really used the carrot or stick approach though so keep kinda muddling along.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mmmmm…I don’t think there’s enough meat on that particular bone to get enough votes to strip tax exempt status from anyone’s house of worship.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Mmmmm…I don’t think there’s enough meat on that particular bone to get enough votes to strip tax exempt status from anyone’s house of worship.




 Government here could theoretically do it. 

 Big upriar on social media as the cops basically don't break up protests here and they were in lockdown. 

 There's a petition to arrest him and it's been reveled he basically doesn't pay tax  but received wage subsidy and those wages of course tithe to the church. 


 And today Covids leaked out of Auckland. They're pushing the get vaccinated message hard now I doubt they can contain it. 

 First dose vaccines are 79% locally 83% with 55% double dosed locally. Mostly that 6 week wait between shots. 

 90% is the magic number they want. Subcontext is less aroha and cuddles more stick with vaccine passports and the national airline has made vaccines mandatory if you want to travel internationally.

 Mask use is mandatory in stores. Only saw kids ignoring it today.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Lady came into my comic store thursday with two kids in tow... one little girl kept coughing and coughing and the little boy was sneezing and coughing. (I thought for a second he was going to take his mask off to sneeze). They were touching EVERYTHING.

It was probably NOT Covid, but come on, lady... no one is comfortable with you dragging your sick kids into their place of work.


----------



## Mikeythorn

FitzTheRuke said:


> Lady came into my comic store thursday with two kids in tow... one little girl kept coughing and coughing and the little boy was sneezing and coughing. (I thought for a second he was going to take his mask off to sneeze). They were touching EVERYTHING.
> 
> It was probably NOT Covid, but come on, lady... no one is comfortable with you dragging your sick kids into their place of work.



I am facing a similar dilemma to that lady today.  My 6-year old daughter has had a bad cough for about a week. She is otherwise fine, and was scheduled to start her first day of school holiday care today.  She is super excited about it, and burst into tears when I told her she may not be able to go. She certainly doesn’t have Covid (there is none here at the moment) and has no other symptoms. My theory is that it is seasonal. It is spring here and the cough’s arrival coincided with me developing different hay fever symptoms. A couple of years ago I would not have thought twice about letting her go. As of right now, I honestly don’t know what I am going to do*.  Anyway. I guess I am just trying to say that sometimes those decisions can be really hard as a parent. 

* Actually, having finished this message I have now decided to call the programme lead and have a chat to her about it.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Mikeythorn said:


> I am facing a similar dilemma to that lady today.  My 6-year old daughter has had a bad cough for about a week. She is otherwise fine, and was scheduled to start her first day of school holiday care today.  She is super excited about it, and burst into tears when I told her she may not be able to go. She certainly doesn’t have Covid (there is none here at the moment) and has no other symptoms. My theory is that it is seasonal. It is spring here and the cough’s arrival coincided with me developing different hay fever symptoms. A couple of years ago I would not have thought twice about letting her go. As of right now, I honestly don’t know what I am going to do*.  Anyway. I guess I am just trying to say that sometimes those decisions can be really hard as a parent.
> 
> * Actually, having finished this message I have now decided to call the programme lead and have a chat to her about it.




Oh, I'm sympathetic! The first day of school my son, who is 14 and vaccinated, had a runny nose. Like lots-of-tissues runny. I had to tell him that he couldn't go. Some of it is overkill, sure, but we've got to be pretty strict with ourselves right now, for people's comfort. He may not have spread covid, but if he spread his cold, even that is potentially a lot of people who might get sick enough to go get themselves tested (in the very least of adding burden to the healthcare system).


----------



## Mirtek

Hussar said:


> I know this is probably too political, but, at what point do "protesters" become "terrorists"?
> 
> The radicalization of Canada and America is a truly, truly terrifying thing to see.



In Germany a man got angry that he was denied buying cigarettes at a gas station whithout wearing a mask, so he drove home, picked up a mask and a gun, drove back and killed the 20-year old cashier in cold blood.


----------



## Hussar

Mirtek said:


> In Germany a man got angry that he was denied buying cigarettes at a gas station whithout wearing a mask, so he drove home, picked up a mask and a gun, drove back and killed the 20-year old cashier in cold blood.



And, the unfortunate truth is these kinds of things have been happening for quite a while.  When they have to escort nurses out of a freaking hospital because of safety concerns, there's something SERIOUSLY wrong with people.  

So many political rants I want to go on right now.  I really do appreciate the rules here that stop me from doing that.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> In Germany a man got angry that he was denied buying cigarettes at a gas station whithout wearing a mask, so he drove home, picked up a mask and a gun, drove back and killed the 20-year old cashier in cold blood.




 I've got aate who works in a service station. He tells customers to put a mask on if required but doesn't push it as it's not worth the aggro. 

 His funniest story was a student raiding the masks for customers. He called him out on it and his response was "how else well I get into the bottlestore?".


----------



## GreyLord

Imaculata said:


> Another thing we are seeing worldwide, is a lot of the vaccine hesitancy occuring in strong religious communities. And sometimes we even see churches encouraging their members not to get vaccinated.
> 
> I think governments need to take a stronger stance against that, and simply pull their tax exempt status for doing that.




I think this is what it really is...it's not access to information for these people.  They have the same information available to them as everyone else does.  

It's what they CHOOSE to BELIEVE.  It is more akin to religion than other things, but as it has not been recognized as much being related to this type of thought process, they can go to the extremes.  In that light, it's not even like mainstream religions...most of which have actually endorsed vaccinations, but like the extreme fanatical cult that occasionally pop up where the members do things that are unbelievable to most of the world.

Except, because it's not recognized as a similar thing, people think it is more acceptable to be a part of the extreme thought processes, the same that encourage the type of belief system that fuels extremist cults.

In that light, it's not really religion as we know it, or information availability, but a way of thinking that garners people into a more fanatical cult like stance.

This is why we get people who may even KNOW the evidence, but even after knowing it, even as they die of it sometimes, refuse to accept that reality...because it's not what they BELIEVE and hence they cannot accept something that goes counter to a fanatical fantasy that they uphold.


----------



## Zardnaar

Number fairly static but they're relaxing restrictions. To many people not following the rules. 

 I suspect delta will be out and about in a few weeks. Less restrictions translation "go see friends and family". 

 Still none where I live and our vaccination rates are some of the highest in the country.

 Could be interesting stopped watching the daily updates weeks ago just get the tldr version from family. 

 Think people just gave up.


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> This is why we get people who may even KNOW the evidence, but even after knowing it, even as they die of it sometimes, refuse to accept that reality...because it's not what they BELIEVE and hence they cannot accept something that goes counter to a fanatical fantasy that they uphold.




So, we should note that it is more than just how they BELIEVE in a fantasy, and can't let it go.

That fantasy is tied to their peronal sense of _identity_.  Asking them to change their minds on covid is often equivalent to asking them to reconsider who they are as a person.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> So, we should note that it is more than just how they BELIEVE in a fantasy, and can't let it go.
> 
> That fantasy is tied to their peronal sense of _identity_.  Asking them to change their minds on covid is often equivalent to asking them to reconsider who they are as a person.




They would have to admit that they were duped into believing a fantasy, and that's just embarrassing. No one likes to be proven to be a fool.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FitzTheRuke said:


> They would have to admit that they were duped into believing a fantasy, and that's just embarrassing. No one likes to be proven to be a fool.



It’s actually worse than that.

Like Umbran said, this has become a matter of _identity._  For them, accepting their fantasy has been debunked could be as disruptive to their sense of self as finding out their ancestors didn’t come over on the Mayflower, the family fortune was built on illegal arms sales, or granny was a madame in Las Vegas.

It’s not just, “Ooops, I was wrong.”, it’s “My world is coming undone.”  It’s the psychological equivalent of a roundhouse blow from the reigning heavy champion of the world.


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> They would have to admit that they were duped into believing a fantasy, and that's just embarrassing. No one likes to be proven to be a fool.




There's an element of that, too.  But consider the next step, the  broader implications...

If you are wrong about this, _what else_ is linked to it that you might also be wrong about?  If you're into these ideas, you probably went to a couple of specific places to get information, and you probably believed them on those things too.  But now all those sources, and _all the things you believed from them_, become suspect.

It goes from the embarassment about being a fool, to being oh, crap, everything you know is wrong very quickly.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s actually worse than that.
> 
> Like Umbran said, this has become a matter of _identity._  For them, accepting their fantasy has been debunked could be as disruptive to their sense of self as finding out their ancestors didn’t come over on the Mayflower, the family fortune was built on illegal arms sales, or granny was a madame in Las Vegas.
> 
> It’s not just, “Ooops, I was wrong.”, it’s “My world is coming undone.”  It’s the psychological equivalent of a roundhouse blow from the reigning heavy champion of the world.



We of Highlands descent have a pretty simple way of handling this; we start by admitting that our ancestors were recalcitrant horse and cattle thieves, then move on from there. Doesn't work for everyone, but it helps overall


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> There's an element of that, too.  But consider the next step, the  broader implications...
> 
> If you are wrong about this, _what else_ is linked to it that you might also be wrong about?  If you're into these ideas, you probably went to a couple of specific places to get information, and you probably believed them on those things too.  But now all those sources, and _all the things you believed from them_, become suspect.
> 
> It goes from the embarassment about being a fool, to being oh, crap, everything you know is wrong very quickly.




Yeah... then you also have not just "I did a foolish thing" but "I AM a fool" and "I have always been a fool".

No wonder they cling so hard.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Ryujin said:


> We of Highlands descent have a pretty simple way of handling this; we start by admitting that our ancestors were recalcitrant horse and cattle thieves, then move on from there. Doesn't work for everyone, but it helps overall



Must be my Scottish side. I always assume that I've probably made a massive mistake recently (without knowing what it is) and that my ancestors accomplished nothing of note. Of course, I'm Canadian, so I'm also very sorry for whatever I've done!


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> Must be my Scottish side. I always assume that I've probably made a massive mistake recently (without knowing what it is) and that my ancestors accomplished nothing of note. Of course, I'm Canadian, so I'm also very sorry for whatever I've done!



Canadian, of Scottish roots, and every time I read one of the stories out of "The Book of the Clans" I feel like I should call someone and apologize too


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> Yeah... then you also have not just "I did a foolish thing" but "I AM a fool" and "I have always been a fool".
> 
> No wonder they cling so hard.




Well, my point is that it then is beyond the shame of foolishness.  It becomes about literally not knowing what "knowledge" you hold true can be trusted.  That's a psychologically deeper issue than shame.

It isn't, "Oh, I've been a fool."  It becomes "Well... who the heck am I if all this stuff is wrong?"


----------



## Rabulias

Umbran said:


> Well, my point is that it then is beyond the shame of foolishness.  It becomes about literally not knowing what "knowledge" you hold true can be trusted.  That's a psychologically deeper issue than shame.
> 
> It isn't, "Oh, I've been a fool."  It becomes "Well... who the heck am I if all this stuff is wrong?"



So what brings this about more in some people than others? I know we all have it to some degree or another, but I have changed my mind about many significant things over the years, and it has not caused even a minor identity crisis for me. Is there a root cause or other signs that signals this tendency?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

An interesting little article discussing C19’s 2 month surge/decline/surge cycle.  They note that this cycle maintained itself through changes in human behavior, seasons, vaccinations and other variables.









						Trying to Make Sense of COVID's Mysterious 2-Month Cycle
					

COVID-19 is once again in retreat. The reasons remain somewhat unclear, and there is no guarantee that the decline in caseloads will continue. But the turnaround is now large enough — and been going on long enough — to deserve attention. Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times...




					www.yahoo.com
				




Towards the end, there’s also this tidbit:


> Eventually, immunity will become widespread enough that another wave as large and damaging as the delta wave will not be possible. “Barring something unexpected,” said Dr. Scott Gottleib, a former Food and Drug Administration commissioner and author of “Uncontrolled Spread,” a new book on COVID, “I’m of the opinion that this is the last major wave of infection.”




Note, he’s not contradicting many virologists’ assertion that C19 is likely endemic at this point, but rather, he things we’re approaching a point in global society where major, dangerous outbreaks may be a thing of the past.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Rabulias said:


> So what brings this about more in some people than others? I know we all have it to some degree or another, but I have changed my mind about many significant things over the years, and it has not caused even a minor identity crisis for me. Is there a root cause or other signs that signals this tendency?



I don’t know that it’s present MORE in some than others, but it may rather be that some of those beliefs are more easily challenged than others.

If the 5-generations old story about your family’s noble roots in europe are wrong, it’s not going to be easy to prove that without some quality research.  Most people won’t even challenge that.  So, barring extraordinary circumstances, the erroneous belief is unlikely to be challenged.  _Ever_.

But if something new gets absorbed into your idea of self, and it happens to be newsworthy and actively challenged by others?  Things can get ugly very quickly.  A classic example happens when there is a schism in a family because XYZ belief system is supposedly a cult.  People sever lifelong bonds over things like this…sometimes with “extreme prejudice.”

As for the signposts?  Look for strong beliefs that should not/cannot be challenged.  Emotional overreaction to the the belief being challenged- “OVER” being key.  Mania regarding the belief.


----------



## Janx

Rabulias said:


> So what brings this about more in some people than others? I know we all have it to some degree or another, but I have changed my mind about many significant things over the years, and it has not caused even a minor identity crisis for me. Is there a root cause or other signs that signals this tendency?



Fear.  One group of people test high for it.  it shows in their politics and the kind of things they support.


----------



## Ryujin

Rabulias said:


> So what brings this about more in some people than others? I know we all have it to some degree or another, but I have changed my mind about many significant things over the years, and it has not caused even a minor identity crisis for me. Is there a root cause or other signs that signals this tendency?



That might be because you evolved your point of view for yourself, rather than having an "alternate reality" slap you across the face like an iced haddock.


----------



## Umbran

Rabulias said:


> So what brings this about more in some people than others?




So, as I understand it, it isn't really that some people are more vulnerable to it than others - as you say, everyone is.  What we are seeing is many people struck by it on the same topic.



Rabulias said:


> ...I have changed my mind about many significant things over the years, and it has not caused even a minor identity crisis for me. Is there a root cause or other signs that signals this tendency?




The first question to ask is how deeply those things really mattered to you.  The second question is how many other things were linked to it that also really mattered to you.  The third is how many decisions have you made based on those items that you'd regret if you change your mind.

Like, if you were a dedicated iPhone person for years, you might resist the idea that Android phones are better.  And, sure, you're bought into the Apple sphere of influence on many apps and services, and changing would be a hassle.  But, you know, changing just means a different phone, different apps.  There's no real consequence for your prior choice, or changing.  So, you might just change your mind, and find Android to be better.

But, if you've been listening to Some News for six years, and they told you covid was a hoax and to not get vaxxed.  They also told you a lot of other things, though, that you bought into.  And, well, if you came to change your mind, that probably means that some of your voting choices _actually hurt people_ who didn't deserve it....  

What's easier at that point - Changing your mind, or sticking your fingers in your ears and loudly singing, "LALALALALA!  I AM NOT LISTENING!!!1!"?


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> Fear.  One group of people test high for it.  it shows in their politics and the kind of things they support.




My understanding is there's actually another thing they test high for - disgust.  It is the emotion of _safety_.  Disgust keeps you away from spoiled food and disease.  It also keeps your social in-group in line.  When you misbehave, and your social group turns their back on you, they aren't scared of you - they are disgusted with you.

When you hear someone saying that some out-group is dirty, diseased, or sexually perverted, that's not fear talking, that's disgust.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> My understanding is there's actually another thing they test high for - disgust.  It is the emotion of _safety_.  Disgust keeps you away from spoiled food and disease.  It also keeps your social in-group in line.  When you misbehave, and your social group turns their back on you, they aren't scared of you - they are disgusted with you.
> 
> When you hear someone saying that some out-group is dirty, diseased, or sexually perverted, that's not fear talking, that's disgust.



good point, though I think fear can be traced back in there.

groups that practice shaming or shunning, are in effect using fear.  You don't go against the group or you'll be out.  That's scary.

It's just as easy also to disguise fear as disgust. Ex. all those strongly homophobic ranters who later turn out to be gay. It's an overcompensating mechanism.

Disgust strikes me as a form of false bravado.  In the Covid conversation, these people are calling anyone who urged caution, masking, vaccination cowards.  When in fact, it was THEY who were afraid, and in fact fear was used to incite them.  Fear of losing rights, as if it's an actual slippery slope to go from wearing a mask to not being able to read the bible. Fear is embedded in all the memes that built this up.


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> It's just as easy also to disguise fear as disgust.




In the eyes of a duffer, yes.  Real human behavior experts can tell the difference.



Janx said:


> Disgust strikes me as a form of false bravado.




It really isn't.  False bravado does not make you throw up at the thought of eating something with worms in it.


----------



## Garthanos

Ryujin said:


> We of Highlands descent have a pretty simple way of handling this; we start by admitting that our ancestors were recalcitrant horse and cattle thieves, then move on from there. Doesn't work for everyone, but it helps overall



My father of Scottish descent also went with the horse thief angle but looking back they were a major sept of the Skene Clan centered near Amberdene and our name is even now on air ports.


----------



## J.Quondam

Janx said:


> good point, though I think fear can be traced back in there.
> 
> groups that practice shaming or shunning, are in effect using fear. You don't go against the group or you'll be out. That's scary.



I think this counts for a lot of it, especially in enclaves where the belief is widespread among the population, as is in a lot of rural areas.

Even if someone might be otherwise equipped to confront reality and reject an untrue belief, they might be considerably less likely to do so if their family, neighbors, coworkers, church groups, etc, all profess that same belief. In a small, insular locale where political affiliation might run to 80% or 90% or even more, the risk of ostracization is a terrifying prospect. Heck some people are freaked out just by getting unliked on FB.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> Like, if you were a dedicated iPhone person for years, you might resist the idea that Android phones are better.  And, sure, you're bought into the Apple sphere of influence on many apps and services, and changing would be a hassle.  But, you know, changing just means a different phone, different apps.  There's no real consequence for your prior choice, or changing.  So, you might just change your mind, and find Android to be better.




The number of logical fallacies to that kind of thinking are adding up - Now you've got the Sunk Cost Fallacy to go with Occam and Hanlon's Razors (discussed previously).


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> My understanding is there's actually another thing they test high for - disgust.  It is the emotion of _safety_.  Disgust keeps you away from spoiled food and disease.  It also keeps your social in-group in line.  When you misbehave, and your social group turns their back on you, they aren't scared of you - they are disgusted with you.
> 
> When you hear someone saying that some out-group is dirty, diseased, or sexually perverted, that's not fear talking, that's disgust.



They have done studies on that difference in how easily someone is disgusted vs political leaning and discovered they can take rotten meat pictures and use neural scans with like 95 percent accuracy what group they are likely to profess.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Garthanos said:


> They have done studies on that difference in how easily someone is disgusted vs political leaning and discovered they can take rotten meat pictures and use neural scans with like 95 percent accuracy what group they are likely to profess.




That IS interesting.


----------



## Garthanos

FitzTheRuke said:


> That IS interesting.



I take it as implying a physiological difference (but that is probably a hypothesis awaiting a "how"... aka not real solid science lol)


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Garthanos said:


> I take it as implying a physiological difference (but that is probably a hypothesis awaiting a "how"... aka not real solid science lol)



Then you gotta factor in the old nature vs nurture. Obviously, what makes a person is BOTH - but how much does brainwashing teaching/parenting factor into it?


----------



## Garthanos

FitzTheRuke said:


> Then you gotta factor in the old nature vs nurture.



Teaching a more extreme disgust reaction at rotten meat? ALMOST always relating to that other stuff.... just seems really really odd. Chicken and egg


----------



## Garthanos

They bred foxes based on low fear response to humans and in just a few generations physiological changes occurred they started getting doglike physical features... floppy ears and the like.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Garthanos said:


> Teaching a more extreme disgust reaction at rotten meat? ALMOST always relating to that other stuff.... just seems really really odd. Chicken and egg




Sure. It's not so much "Look at this rotten meat. You should find this foul!" kind of teaching, but more kids-watching-adults-react, and deciding that they will react that way too. My daughter was born a picky eater. My son was not. But he watched her decide that things were yucky enough to become picky over time. Now she's grown into an adventuresome eater (she'll at least try "weird" things - this she learned from me - I'll eat _anything_ once. If it's good I'll eat it again!) while he still only likes to eat his "favourite" things. That's learned behavior.

(Of course, this also shows how much folly parenting can actually be - I have actively _taught_ them to be experimental eaters. So far that only worked on _one_ of them.)


----------



## niklinna

Garthanos said:


> They bred foxes based on low fear response to humans and in just a few generations physiological changes occurred they started getting doglike physical features... floppy ears and the like.



Oh it wasn't doglike—it was _domesticated_. Pigs, horses, other domesticated animals have similar physiological features that their wild cousins don't! Fascinating stuff.


----------



## Garthanos

FitzTheRuke said:


> Sure. It's not so much "Look at this rotten meat. You should find this foul!" kind of teaching, but more kids-watching-adults-react, and deciding that they will react that way too. My daughter was born a picky eater. My son was not. But he watched her decide that things were yucky enough to become picky over time. Now she's grown into an adventuresome eater (she'll at least try "weird" things - this she learned from me - I'll eat _anything_ once. If it's good I'll eat it again!) while he still only likes to eat his "favourite" things. That's learned behavior.
> 
> (Of course, this also shows how much folly parenting can actually be - I have actively _taught_ them to be experimental eaters. So far that only worked on _one_ of them.)



Yes but now WHY is there an association with thinking loyalty is the primary virtue and believing lies like trickle down economics is a functional thing?


----------



## Garthanos

niklinna said:


> Oh it wasn't doglike—it was _domesticated_. Pigs, horses, other domesticated animals have similar physiological features that their wild cousins don't! Fascinating stuff.



Nods I brought up to point towards physical elements being connected with personality features. (in this case fear possibly paralleling disgust)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Garthanos said:


> My father of Scottish descent also went with the horse thief angle but looking back they were a major sept of the Skene Clan centered near Amberdene and our name is even now on air ports.



Soooo…you were PLANE thieves?  Got it!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Took mom for her booster shot today.  Got one myself.


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> The number of logical fallacies to that kind of thinking are adding up - Now you've got the Sunk Cost Fallacy to go with Occam and Hanlon's Razors (discussed previously).




Being tied into the Apple sphere isn't Sunk Cost.  For example, if you get another iPhone, most of your old apps can be installed on your new phone at no extra cost.  Move to Android, and you will have to find, and purchase, new applications, and so on.

If there's _future_ work on one, but not the other, it isn't about sunk costs.

That said, sure, there's tons of logical fallacies in human behavior.  What, you were of the opinion that our species was... rational, or something?


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> They bred foxes based on low fear response to humans and in just a few generations physiological changes occurred they started getting doglike physical features... floppy ears and the like.




If you are talking about what I expect you are, that's not quite what happened.  It was a fairly famous Russian experiment to breed _domesticated_ foxes - not specifically low fear response (that's too specific a trait to breed for), but tameness, which isn't exactly the same thing.

What they got wasn't actually doglike physical features.  What they got was a fox that retained many traits of puppyhood later into life.  One upshot of this was that their coats changed, mostly ruining the breed for farming purposes.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> If you are talking about what I expect you are, that's not quite what happened.  It was a fairly famous Russian experiment to breed _domesticated_ foxes - not specifically low fear response (that's too specific a trait to breed for), but tameness, which isn't exactly the same thing.
> 
> What they got wasn't actually doglike physical features.  What they got was a fox that retained many traits of puppyhood later into life.  One upshot of this was that their coats changed, mostly ruining the breed for farming purposes.



However, they- or their successors in interest- are currently running an exotic pet business selling those domesticated foxes.


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Soooo…you were PLANE thieves?  Got it!



Them's called hijackers.


----------



## niklinna

Umbran said:


> If you are talking about what I expect you are, that's not quite what happened.  It was a fairly famous Russian experiment to breed _domesticated_ foxes - not specifically low fear response (that's too specific a trait to breed for), but tameness, which isn't exactly the same thing.
> 
> What they got wasn't actually doglike physical features.  What they got was a fox that retained many traits of puppyhood later into life.  One upshot of this was that their coats changed, mostly ruining the breed for farming purposes.



Here we go: Domesticated silver fox – Wikipedia


----------



## Maxperson

New Zealand finally throws in the towel.



			https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-10-04/new-zealand-admits-it-can-no-longer-get-rid-of-coronavirus


----------



## Hussar

Ryujin said:


> Canadian, of Scottish roots, and every time I read one of the stories out of "The Book of the Clans" I feel like I should call someone and apologize too



Considering recent information become more public in Canada in the past six months or so, I feel like we probably should all be calling someone and apologizing.


----------



## Hussar

In this discussion about why people think this way or that, there's all sorts of factors as well.

My whole life I've been told that global warming was real, it's coming and it's going to be bad.  And, everything I was told is coming true.  But, you still have all sorts of folks resisting the narrative.  Trying to get a carbon tax passed in Canada has been an incredibly divisive thing.  If you believe that climate change isn't real, you don't have to change any of your behavior.  But, if you accept that it's real, then you have to accept that you can't do certain things and you have to pay for certain things.  

Heck, I'll take something personal - dieting.  I know I should eat better.  My whole life I've been fat.  It's not like I don't know that it's bad for me or I'm ignorant of the facts.  I just didn't care.  Until, unfortunately, it caught up with me and now bread, pasta and rice are things I can only look at and admire from afar.    But, there's lots of people who don't stop.  I mean, if Type 2 Diabetes isn't going to stop someone, that's some serious cognitive dissonance going on.  

You can rationalize just about anything if you really want to.

((On the plus side, I have dropped 25 kg since last May, so, I have actually managed to do a bit about my problems.  I'm trying at least.))


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> If you are talking about what I expect you are, that's not quite what happened.  It was a fairly famous Russian experiment to breed _domesticated_ foxes - not specifically low fear response (that's too specific a trait to breed for), but tameness, which isn't exactly the same thing.



it was low fear of humans which is definitely how they selected at first (and later lower aggression towards the humans providing for them ie hierarchic obedience? perhaps)... and yes that all was their running definition for domestication ie taming.


Umbran said:


> What they got wasn't actually doglike physical features.



May have been neotenous but the show I saw didnt mention that element but they very much would be identified as dog like traits and included floppy ears and changing tails and sometimes spotted fur and similar


----------



## Garthanos

niklinna said:


> Here we go: Domesticated silver fox – Wikipedia



the article definitely mentions dog-like morphology.
Just as lower fear response to humans were mentioned in the program I saw with regards to their selective breeding.


----------



## Zardnaar

13.8% unvaccinated locally. 25.8% single dose. 









						Jab rates among best, but hurdles remain
					

Vaccination rates in the South are among the best in New Zealand for meeting the threat of Covid-19, but a challenge looms in reaching rural areas....




					www.odt.co.nz
				





 Cities big enough to have the amenities I like, small enough for that big town feel that avoids the problems of various places.


----------



## Retreater

Was just reading on CNN about the study in Israel about Pfizer dropping to 20% (or less) effectiveness in a matter of months (while still being 90% against serious illness or death). At this point I'm about to just give up on this ever being over or improving beyond where it is right now.


----------



## Cadence

Retreater said:


> Was just reading on CNN about the study in Israel about Pfizer dropping to 20% (or less) effectiveness in a matter of months (while still being 90% against serious illness or death). At this point I'm about to just give up on this ever being over or improving beyond where it is right now.




47% after 6 months vs. infection in the first study that popped up for me.  I do wonder in some of these studies how they control for the vaccinated probably being more likely to distance and mask in many places.

Would almost be surprised at this point if we don't start getting annual boosters for COVID mixed in with the annual flu shots.  

If the infection rate is cut in half and the serious illness rate is cut to a tenth, does that push it into just another thing like the flu?


----------



## Retreater

Cadence said:


> 47% after 6 months vs. infection in the first study that popped up for me.  I do wonder in some of these studies how they control for the vaccinated probably being more likely to distance and mask in many places.
> 
> Would almost be surprised at this point if we don't start getting annual boosters for COVID mixed in with the annual flu shots.
> 
> If the infection rate is cut in half and the serious illness rate is cut to a tenth, does that push it into just another thing like the flu?



Here's the article link:








						Studies confirm waning immunity from Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine | CNN
					

Two real-world studies published Wednesday confirm that the immune protection offered by two doses of Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine drops off after two months or so, although protection against severe disease, hospitalization and death remains strong.




					www.cnn.com
				




They mentioned that it's possible that vaccinated folks were possibly less likely to mask and social distance because of the protection the vaccine offered. But really, who knows without a long-term study of the behaviors of the individuals?

I think that at this point, "annual" boosters isn't going to cut it - not for Pfizer anyway, because it wanes too quickly. Also, it's not sustainable to give out seasonable boosters just to keep the protection above 50%, especially when some developing nations don't have wide access to any vaccines, and considering the cost of producing and administering the vaccines.

And remember, if this follows last year's pattern, summer is supposed to be the low infection period, with a big ramp up in fall and winter. So it's probably going to be getting much, much worse - especially now that our vaccine effectiveness is dwindling to a statistical improbability.


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> 47% after 6 months vs. infection in the first study that popped up for me.  I do wonder in some of these studies how they control for the vaccinated probably being more likely to distance and mask in many places.




The article I read on this today noted that the observed lack of effectiveness may be due to the vaccinated _RELAXING_ caution, and going to places where they'd get greater exposure as a result.



Cadence said:


> If the infection rate is cut in half and the serious illness rate is cut to a tenth, does that push it into just another thing like the flu?




If we cut the death rate by a factor of 10, then it comes in at the upper end of how many the flu kill each year.  So, a naive estimate would suggest that might be okay.

However, that leaves out the issue of "long covid", which is suffered by nearly a third of those who get it.  That would make covid rather more costly than the flu - people down for months instead of a week or so.

Also, you know how one of the prime symptoms of covid is loss of sense of smell?  That's troubling.  Current studies suggest that while the virus itself doesn't infect the brain, the widespread inflammatory processes it kicks off in the body do also take place in the brain - which seems to lead to long-term or permanent chemical and physical impacts on the brain, and possible loss of function - loss of memory, depression, fatigue, and the like.

So, the level that we find 'acceptable" may be lower than that of the flu.


----------



## niklinna

Has anybody seen info on getting different vaccines? Say you got Moderna, and now it's six months later. Do you get a booster of Moderna, or get a J&J?


----------



## Janx

niklinna said:


> Has anybody seen info on getting different vaccines? Say you got Moderna, and now it's six months later. Do you get a booster of Moderna, or get a J&J?



I haven't seen it official, but since the two-shot protocol was same-same, I'd expect the booster to be the same.  If nothing else because each vendor tests it that way for sure.

So Moderna+Moderna, then a Moderna booster.

While it could be different than that, this seems the simplest.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Today's thought:

People who are just asking questions, just don't want answers.


----------



## niklinna

Mm, I should have given the question more thought. A booster would by definition be of the same vaccine. I'm wondering about what happens if you just get a different vaccine. I haven't heard of any studies about that, but I have heard about the different qualities of the different vaccines. So, I can imagine that getting two different vaccines (not at the same time!) might be a good thing. Or, even with a time gap,  it could cause problems!


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> I haven't seen it official, but since the two-shot protocol was same-same, I'd expect the booster to be the same.  If nothing else because each vendor tests it that way for sure.
> 
> So Moderna+Moderna, then a Moderna booster.
> 
> While it could be different than that, this seems the simplest.




I don't believe there's been any solid testing on the efficacy of cross-brand boosters at this point.  That doesn't mean it won't work, but there's no study behind it yet.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> I don't believe there's been any solid testing on the efficacy of cross-brand boosters at this point.  That doesn't mean it won't work, but there's no study behind it yet.



that's part of why I assumed they'd stick to same.

Though one could argue, if one brand faded off sooner than others, and the patient waited "longer", they might just reset the clock and use a different brand to start over.

But that's just me speculating.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

There have been reports of people getting “whatever” injection they could get, resulting in _individuals_ having mixed vaccines, but there’s no scientific data.  I suspect _someone_ is doing research on that, though, just for pragmatic reasons if nothing else.

If Covid is truly endemic, certain regions WILL run out of particular vaccines at some point.  And people will continue to move around the world.  If our immune systems react radically differently to the various vaccines, we NEED to know if someone who got AZ this year can be protected by “boosters” of J&J or Moderna or whatever going forward, or if they’ll be starting from scratch.


----------



## Zardnaar

niklinna said:


> Has anybody seen info on getting different vaccines? Say you got Moderna, and now it's six months later. Do you get a booster of Moderna, or get a J&J?




 Last I read Moderna was the best vs Delta but I can't recall the duration of effectiveness.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Last I read Moderna was the best vs Delta but I can't recall the duration of effectiveness.




Is the biggest difference between Moderna and Pfizer the dose (which possibly explains the differences in side effects and effectiveness)?


----------



## Hussar

My wife got Moderna and was sick as a dog for a couple of days. Still felt crappy for about a week.  Me and my daughter both got Pfizer and were a bit sore for a day and that was about it.  

One does hope that the oral medicine coming out will be effective.  Certainly a heck of a lot easier to spread.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Is the biggest difference between Moderna and Pfizer the dose (which possibly explains the differences in side effects and effectiveness)?




 No idea. I just looked at the numbers not that we get a choice here. It's Pzizer or Pfizer. 

 It was my first choice a while ago but eh.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> My wife got Moderna and was sick as a dog for a couple of days. Still felt crappy for about a week.  Me and my daughter both got Pfizer and were a bit sore for a day and that was about it.
> 
> One does hope that the oral medicine coming out will be effective.  Certainly a heck of a lot easier to spread.



Well, my understanding is that Merck’s pill is a _treatment _for those who get COVID, as opposed to a preventative like a vaccine.

Importantly, the pill’s mechanism for combatting COVID could be risky.  It’s probably going to remain in limited, regulated circulation for quite a while after it gets approved.








						Merck’s Covid Pill Could Pose Serious Risks, Scientists Warn
					

Researchers say the drug could integrate itself into patients' DNA, theoretically  leading to cancer. Merck says its tests show that isn't an issue.




					www.google.com


----------



## Eltab

Janx said:


> Though one could argue, if one brand faded off sooner than others, and the patient waited "longer", they might just reset the clock and use a different brand to start over.



Tangent:
With several tens of millions of COVID-vaccinated people to survey, a straightforward question could be asked:  When did you get your shots, and how far apart were they?  Please get an effectiveness test and report those results.
Most childhood vaccines that require two-plus shots are given 3 or 6 or 12 months apart, and they 'stick' for the long term.  The current difficulty might be rooted in the two-to-six week schedule between shots being used.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well the got the cases down to 12 or so. Creeping up now and cases outside Auckland. 

 So how bad is it in sane US states and what's considered a good vaccination rates?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I think 2 of our states are at or approaching 80% with at least their first injection.  Beyond that?  _Pbbbbbbtttt!_


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I think 2 of our states are at or approaching 80% with at least their first injection.  Beyond that?  _Pbbbbbbtttt!_




 First jabs Nationally 77.9, local 86.8, suburb 84.7

 Double 62.8% 58.3% local.

 As of two days ago. One place hit 101% (population figures slightly wrong). 

 Locally I think it's over 80% first jab but that's the highest in nation but that's changing ever day. 

 Trying to work out what to expect.


----------



## Janx

Eltab said:


> Tangent:
> With several tens of millions of COVID-vaccinated people to survey, a straightforward question could be asked:  When did you get your shots, and how far apart were they?  Please get an effectiveness test and report those results.
> Most childhood vaccines that require two-plus shots are given 3 or 6 or 12 months apart, and they 'stick' for the long term.  The current difficulty might be rooted in the two-to-six week schedule between shots being used.



Could be, but that's well outside my range for safe, ignorant, speculation. Experts (people who actually work with that stuff) figured out that schedule, who am I, to question it? Such questioning, particularly during this time of lying propaganda to get folks to not vaccinate undermines the efforts to save lives.


----------



## Retreater

Zardnaar said:


> So how bad is it in sane US states and what's considered a good vaccination rates?



My state is pretty bad. Our vaccination rate is around 56% of eligible people. Our infection rate has been 10%. It's the worst we've ever been, but at least it's plateauing. 
Our governor was praised at the start of the pandemic for how he handled it, but the naysayers got in and factions are taking away his authority. Now it's running rampant and unchecked. He's forbidden from issuing any more mandates and is basically only a mouthpiece to beg people every day to get vaccines and be responsible. 
If anything else is going to be legislated in my state, it must come from the U.S. federal government. Otherwise, I don't know what the death count is going to look like.  
The vaccine is only good for so long. Maybe if enough people can get it at the same time, this will go away (instead of mutating).


----------



## Thomas Shey

California, where I live, is apparently doing at least as well as anyone: 72% have at least one dose, 59% are fully vaccinated.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Most childhood vaccines that require two-plus shots are given 3 or 6 or 12 months apart, and they 'stick' for the long term.  The current difficulty might be rooted in the two-to-six week schedule between shots being used.




With respect, it isn't like those making these vaccine are unaware of other protocols.  But everyone seems to be an immunology expert these days...

When we say "covid is not the flu" we don't mean that just in terms of how it is a nastier disease.  It is literally not the same kind of virus.  In terms of taxonomic classification, covid is not the flu in the same way that your dog is not a clam - they are of different _phylum_ classification.

Measels, Covid, and Mumps are all different, on sort of the same level as dogs, clams, and starfish are different.  So, no, there is no silver bullet to generate long-lasting vaccine efficacy against them all.  Dosing farther apart is not magical.  It is merely the effective pattern for some diseases.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> California, where I live, is apparently doing at least as well as anyone: 72% have at least one dose, 59% are fully vaccinated.



Here in Massachusetts, we have 73% at least partial, 66% full.

When speaking of boosters and long-lasting vaccine effectiveness, we should note that the news isn't all bad.  Pfizer's efficacy against infection drops as time goes on.  Its efficacy against _hospitalization and death_ seems to stay very high.

So, in a personal sense folks are still pretty safe.  The issue is that the pool of infected people may grow.

But also note that, at the moment, the pool of infected people in the US _is not growing_.  It has been dropping notably since the start of September.  The case curve in MA is pretty typical:


Spoiler: The green line is the rolling 7-dayaverage of cases per day










This seems to be a bit of a pattern for covid - a surge comes in for a couple of months, and then recedes.  Why is not yet known - it may be something about the virus, or it may be something about human action in the face of the virus.


----------



## J.Quondam

I thought this was a good overview of the difference between immunity by natural infection and by vaccination. 









						No, your antibodies are not better than vaccination: An explainer
					

Infection does offer some immune protection—but it's unreliable compared with vaccines.




					arstechnica.com
				




The TL;DR, of course, is _*get vaxxed, even if you've already had covid*_.
.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Here in Massachusetts, we have 73% at least partial, 66% full.
> 
> When speaking of boosters and long-lasting vaccine effectiveness, we should note that the news isn't all bad.  Pfizer's efficacy against infection drops as time goes on.  Its efficacy against _hospitalization and death_ seems to stay very high.
> 
> So, in a personal sense folks are still pretty safe.  The issue is that the pool of infected people may grow.
> 
> But also note that, at the moment, the pool of infected people in the US _is not growing_.  It has been dropping notably since the start of September.  The case curve in MA is pretty typical:
> 
> 
> Spoiler: The green line is the rolling 7-dayaverage of cases per day
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 145011
> 
> 
> 
> This seems to be a bit of a pattern for covid - a surge comes in for a couple of months, and then recedes.  Why is not yet known - it may be something about the virus, or it may be something about human action in the face of the virus.



Yep, that’s the pattern I mentioned a few days ago.

The thing is, I was listening to some MDs discuss C19’s pattern in the context of 2 previous pandemics (2009 & 1918) that had similar patterns.  One thing they noted was that about this time in their waves, experts predicted more surges…that didn’t come.  The rates rose a bit, but didn’t spike, and thereafter stayed low.  The educated guess is that- while herd immunity hadn’t been reached- enough people had been exposed to make a true spike essentially impossible,

They were thinking we at that same point with Covid right now.  Enough have been exposed or vaccinated that we’re past the worst. (Barring a horror-show mutation, of course.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Just wondering what Covids gonna do with more or less intact set of fresh victims. Vaccination rates seem higher and it's around 94% with the older crowd. 

 With decking death rates you've already had Las years deaths so it's running out of easy marks.

 Last night they locked down another regiin due to uncooperative spreader. Social media is saying prostitute. 

 So in Auckland it leaked into the homeless and gangs and spread from there. And we have some of the lowest ICU numbers in the OECD.

Turns out running things down for 40 years is a bad idea.


----------



## Garthanos

J.Quondam said:


> I thought this was a good overview of the difference between immunity by natural infection and by vaccination.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No, your antibodies are not better than vaccination: An explainer
> 
> 
> Infection does offer some immune protection—but it's unreliable compared with vaccines.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> arstechnica.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The TL;DR, of course, is _*get vaxxed, even if you've already had covid*_.
> .



Perfect TL;DR


----------



## Maxperson

Moderna has been using their vaccine out of the hands of poor countries in order to make more money.









						Moderna, Racing for Profits, Keeps COVID Vaccine Out of Reach of Poor
					

Moderna, whose coronavirus vaccine appears to be the world’s best defense against COVID-19, has been supplying its shots almost exclusively to wealthy nations, keeping poorer countries waiting and earning billions in profit. After developing a breakthrough vaccine with the financial and...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> Moderna has been using their vaccine out of the hands of poor countries in order to make more money.




Did anyone expect differently?  

Moderna is not a big-time pharma company - prior to the covid vaccine, they were a research shop developing the mRNA technology.  The covid vaccine is their first, and still only, commercial product, and its revenue will dry up when the pandemic recedes.  They have an opportunity at a year or two of windfall*, and will try to maximize that opportunity.  


*In this case, windfall on the order of _6000% increase_ in revenue year-over year. They were not a billion-dollar revenue company before the vaccine.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

I don't have a problem with it _if_ they put a lot of it back into their research and not just split it up among their top 5 shareholders. (I'm not so anti-capitalist that I mind them sharing _some_ of it among themselves, but I object to _all_ (or even _most_) of it.)

I have no problem with people getting rich, but I draw the line before it gets to _uber-rich_.


----------



## Deset Gled

Maxperson said:


> Moderna has been using their vaccine out of the hands of poor countries in order to make more money.
> 
> ...
> 
> About 1 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine have gone to countries that the World Bank classifies as low income. By contrast, 8.4 million Pfizer doses and about 25 million single-shot Johnson & Johnson doses have gone to those countries.




Don't most low-income countries prefer the J&J version because it only requires one dose?  In many areas of the world (including parts of the US), a second visit with a doctor is a major barrier to vaccination.

I'm not saying if other claims about Moderna are or aren't true.  Just that one set of numbers doesn't tell the whole story.


----------



## Maxperson

Deset Gled said:


> Don't most low-income countries prefer the J&J version because it only requires one dose?  In many areas of the world (including parts of the US), a second visit with a doctor is a major barrier to vaccination.
> 
> I'm not saying if other claims about Moderna are or aren't true.  Just that one set of numbers doesn't tell the whole story.



That's probably true, which would explain why Johnson & Johnson has delivered 3x more doses to those countries than Pfizer has.  Pfizer, though, wasn't called out.  Probably because it has 8x the doses delivered to poor countries that Moderna has.  Moderna has delived 1 million, Pfizer 8.something million and Johnson & Johnson 25 million.


----------



## Garthanos

Deset Gled said:


> Don't most low-income countries prefer the J&J version because it only requires one dose?  In many areas of the world (including parts of the US), a second visit with a doctor is a major barrier to vaccination.



It is looking like its significantly better to subsequently get a pfizer/moderna shot after getting the J&J one I read.


Deset Gled said:


> I'm not saying if other claims about Moderna are or aren't true.  Just that one set of numbers doesn't tell the whole story.


----------



## Garthanos

Retreater said:


> My state is pretty bad. Our vaccination rate is around 56% of eligible people. Our infection rate has been 10%. It's the worst we've ever been, but at least it's plateauing.



Our vacc rate in my county of eligible age 12 plus is higher than 70% 

I should be eligible for the booster shot sometime soon I hope


----------



## niklinna

Garthanos said:


> It is looking like its significantly better to subsequently get a pfizer/moderna shot after getting the J&J one I read.



Where did you read that? I already got moderna though...dunno if getting a J&J after that would be helpful.


----------



## Garthanos

niklinna said:


> Where did you read that? I already got moderna though...dunno if getting a J&J after that would be helpful.



This is one place I think ... I may have seen it somewhere else originally. 









						J&J Covid vaccine recipients can get supplemental Pfizer or Moderna dose in San Francisco
					

J&J recipients can make a special request to get a "supplemental dose" of an mRNA vaccine, San Francisco health officials said Tuesday in a statement to CNBC.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## niklinna

Garthanos said:


> This is one place I think ... I may have seen it somewhere else originally.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> J&J Covid vaccine recipients can get supplemental Pfizer or Moderna dose in San Francisco
> 
> 
> J&J recipients can make a special request to get a "supplemental dose" of an mRNA vaccine, San Francisco health officials said Tuesday in a statement to CNBC.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com



Huh. I would have expected a follow-on of Moderna/Pfizer to be the full two-dose protocol. Curious. In any case, not a study of efficacy, just lots of people wanting to do this.


----------



## Eltab

Deset Gled said:


> Don't most low-income countries prefer the J&J version because it only requires one dose?  In many areas of the world (including parts of the US), a second visit with a doctor is a major barrier to vaccination.



IIRC, J&J requires only normal freezing temperatures, not a super-deep freeze.  If it can be preserved and effective in a level of cold that can be supplied by packing in dry ice, that is a leg up for distribution to places where electricity (and freezers) are scarce.


----------



## Eltab

FitzTheRuke said:


> I don't have a problem with it _if_ they put a lot of it back into their research ...



Moderna already has their next R&D project: make the protection stick long-term. 

And they do owe their lab teams some hefty bonuses.  Imho.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Eltab said:


> Moderna already has their next R&D project: make the protection stick long-term.
> 
> And they do owe their lab teams some hefty bonuses.  Imho.




Agreed. Like I said, I have no problem with anyone getting paid. I just don't like it when ALL the money gets taken away by some rich guy at the top. If the massive profits go back into research (with some bonusses all around for a job well done) then the system is working like it ought to. They can make profits again the next time they come up with something worthwhile - I have no issue with that!


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> Pfizer, though, wasn't called out.




The measure that makes sense is probably not the absolute number of doses, but the _fraction_ of doses manufactured that have gone to poorer countries.

Also, we would want to look at the manufacturing cost of each.  If Pfizer does it cheaper, they can cut the price and still realize the same profits.

Because, let us not kid ourselves that Pfizer isn't making a mint on this - they took in $3 billion in covid vaccine revenue in the first three months of 2021, and _$9 billion in vaccine sales in the second quarter_.  Which suggests to me that Pfizer is selling a lot more than Moderna, so they darned well ought to be making more available to poor countries than Moderna.


----------



## Zardnaar

Big vaccine push on. Nationwide 82/58% 1st/2nd dose vaccine and there's a mass vax event for Saturday. 

 Aucklands hit 87% single dose where the outbreak mostly is. 63% double dosed. 43 cases today. 

  Boring stuff. 

 If you're super keen the first 5 minutes or so is the important part.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

LOTS of interesting things on the horizon!

Several new therapeutics on the horizon.  In addition to Merck’s pill, AstraZeneca’s new monoclonal antibody therapy promises up to a whole year of protection   Neither, researchers point out, are a substitute for vaccination, because they’re not preventative.  









						New treatments offer hope with vaccines for 'interlocking benefits' against COVID-19
					

COVID-19 vaccines offer the best protection against severe illness and death, but new antibody and antiviral treatments offer "interlocking benefits."




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This article on Merck’s new antiviral pill has a nice pros & cons section at the end:








						Are new COVID antiviral pills a pandemic game changer?
					

The easy-to-administer treatments could soon become a potent tool in the fight against coronavirus, but a variety of obstacles may limit their effectiveness.




					www.yahoo.com
				




Looks like the biggest stumbling blocks are its price ($700) and a somewhat narrow therapeutic window- it has to be administered before severe symptoms manifest.  

This small window of opportunity means that for it to be most effective, we need accurate, rapid tests for diagnosing COVID, and an acceptance of contact tracing.  I suspect solutions to the former will come in the relatively near future, while the latter will be more problematic.  Still, one thing that might sway contact tracing skeptics is that some researchers believe that administering the pill to asymptomatic people who have been in contact with someone diagnosed with COVID may be functionally similar to getting vaccinated.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This small window of opportunity means that for it to be most effective, we need accurate, rapid tests for diagnosing COVID, and an acceptance of contact tracing.  I suspect solutions to the former will come in the relatively near future, while the latter will be more problematic.  Still, one thing that might sway contact tracing skeptics is that some researchers believe that administering the pill to asymptomatic people who have been in contact with someone diagnosed with COVID may be functionally similar to getting vaccinated.



Fully agree about the first point.  Something that tells you "You do / don't have COVID" while being as easy inexpensive and reliable as a pregnancy test, would go a long way toward controlling the germ - and address the 'Expert's blessing required' bottleneck problem.

A medicine pack to take when your friends at work have caught COVID, if presented like a "COVID-formulated One-A-Day" (or Geritol or Flintstones based on age), would address one of the big gaps in our response to date: something that can be easily worked into daily routine.

I saw in a grocery a 'Healthy You' liquid vitamin that was mostly covered with a standard label "not endorsed by the FDA to treat any disease" but featured Zinc and Vitamin D as chief ingredients ... so we know what the intended purpose of that product _really_ is.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> Fully agree about the first point.  Something that tells you "You do / don't have COVID" while being as easy inexpensive and reliable as a pregnancy test, would go a long way toward controlling the germ - and address the 'Expert's blessing required' bottleneck problem.
> 
> A medicine pack to take when your friends at work have caught COVID, if presented like a "COVID-formulated One-A-Day" (or Geritol or Flintstones based on age), would address one of the big gaps in our response to date: something that can be easily worked into daily routine.
> 
> I saw in a grocery a 'Healthy You' liquid vitamin that was mostly covered with a standard label "not endorsed by the FDA to treat any disease" but featured Zinc and Vitamin D as chief ingredients ... so we know what the intended purpose of that product _really_ is.



I’m not sure it will be OTC any time soon.  You’d probably need to see a doctor first, for the near future.  And that means some kind of contact tracing.

Eventually, though, if/when it becomes available OTC, you might be able to get it at an institution’s on-site dispensary out of their first-aid kit.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Fully agree about the first point.  Something that tells you "You do / don't have COVID" while being as easy inexpensive and reliable as a pregnancy test, would go a long way toward controlling the germ - and address the 'Expert's blessing required' bottleneck problem.




I'm sorry, folks, but at $700, your insurance company is _NOT_ going to cover it based on a self-test. The self-test, at best, tells you you need to see a physician immediately if you want this drug.


----------



## Zardnaar

If it gets approved here go see doctor $3.50 USD prescription.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> If it gets approved here go see doctor $3.50 USD prescription.




Hooray?


----------



## Mirtek

Umbran said:


> I don't believe there's been any solid testing on the efficacy of cross-brand boosters at this point.  That doesn't mean it won't work, but there's no study behind it yet.



There must be some. At least the German RKI, and I also believe the EU EMA, changed the recommendation to follow a first shot of AZ with a second shot of Pfizer or Moderna. It's seen has being more effective. They changed the official recommendation in July or August already


----------



## Umbran

Mirtek said:


> There must be some.




All the data I have read about has been small scale, preliminary stuff. 

Do remember, we are only now getting to a time where folks would be considering boosters, much less for there to be valid large-scale studies of cross-brand booster efficacy.



Mirtek said:


> At least the German RKI, and I also believe the EU EMA, changed the recommendation to follow a first shot of AZ with a second shot of Pfizer or Moderna. It's seen has being more effective. They changed the official recommendation in July or August already




So, I'd need a reference to know - but that sounds like a change to the possible _initial vaccine protocol_, not to boosters.  Different use cases, need to be studied differently.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Canada has apparently been doing mix & match vaccinations for a month or so, and their numbers are still good.  Based on the Canadian “experiment”, other countries are considering that going forward.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Canada has apparently been doing mix & match vaccinations for a month or so, and their numbers are still good.  Based on the Canadian “experiment”, other countries are considering that going forward.



We've been doing it for a lot longer than a month. We started it months ago in the summer. I nearly had a mix myself but the week I went for my 2nd they got more Moderna so I wound up with two of that. My whole family had 2 of Pfizer. I am the odd one out.


----------



## Zardnaar

The had a super vaccine weekend here and set a new record of 120k vaccines in a single day (population. 5 million). 

 Daily cases slowly increasing 60 cases today. Aucklands spent around 2 months in lockdown. 

  No Covid locally but waiting for that penny to drop in next few weeks. 

  All immediate friends and family now double shot. 82.3% single shot iirc 63.6 both shots.

 They made it a large social event with food, pasifika entertainment, food and grocery give aways etc.


----------



## Hussar

Yay for my city.  Population a tad under a million and no new cases for three days.  Total cases since the start of things, 10000 (ish).  Not too bad.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Canada has apparently been doing mix & match vaccinations for a month or so, and their numbers are still good.  Based on the Canadian “experiment”, other countries are considering that going forward.



It seems to have been more of an issue with availability of certain vaccines, than any sort of planned "experiment." The concern was to make sure that as many people as possible got _something_. There was also more than a little concern that one of the vaccines that we have been given was not recognized by the US and, therefore, would not permit people who were "fully vaccinated" with that vaccine to travel to the US.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ryujin said:


> It seems to have been more of an issue with availability of certain vaccines, than any sort of planned "experiment." The concern was to make sure that as many people as possible got _something_. There was also more than a little concern that one of the vaccines that we have been given was not recognized by the US and, therefore, would not permit people who were "fully vaccinated" with that vaccines to travel to the US.



Hence the quotation marks.

But fortunately, pragmatism hasn’t seemed to hurt the actual patients!


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Hence the quotation marks.
> 
> But fortunately, pragmatism hasn’t seemed to hurt the actual patients!



No, in this case it seems it may have been a bit of a happy accident.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Hussar said:


> Yay for my city.




Kitakyushu! Hey, I've been there! Nice place. IIRC that's where I had some really, really good scallops.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> I'm sorry, folks, but at $700, your insurance company is _NOT_ going to cover it based on a self-test. The self-test, at best, tells you you need to see a physician immediately if you want this drug.



If this drug pans out - or whatever does pan out - it is not going to be an 'orphan drug'; it will be going to mass market.  It won't stay highly-expensive.

And as a matter of setting expectations, 'people can buy it off the shelf like you do aspirin' is far better than 'here are an obstacle course's worth of hoops you have to jump through to get some.'


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> If this drug pans out - or whatever does pan out - it is not going to be an 'orphan drug'; it will be going to mass market.  It won't stay highly-expensive.




Um.  Insulin.  'Nuff said.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Um.  Insulin.  'Nuff said.



The US sad excuse for a medical system sucks...


----------



## niklinna

Umbran said:


> Um.  Insulin.  'Nuff said.



And epi-pens.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well they're prepping us here for larger numbers as numbers keep rising. 

 94 cases yesterday we've been told to expect hundreds soon. 

 PM basically admitted they changed course because people weren't following the rules in lockdown anyway. Aucklands gonna spend 11 weeks minimum in lockdown and it's there 4th one. 

 Joke here is once Covid hits the Capital expect shorter lockdowns. Politicians will still want their lattes.


----------



## Ryujin

Got my digital proof of vaccination yesterday in Ontario, Canada. The Provincial Government routinely under estimates the server load that their websites are going to receive (the site for scheduling vaccinations was continually crashing when it was launched) and this was no exception. Monday was the first day that requests were open to all, rather than scheduled by birth month. On Monday I got in the queue behind roughly 20K other people and when I had my turn, after about 20 minutes of waiting, I filled in all of my information and then after another 5 minute wait, was unceremoniously kicked off the server. On retry I found a queue of more than 200K, with a listing that the server was "paused." Yesterday it took literally 2 minutes to complete the process.


----------



## Umbran

We are expecting booster shots for J&J and Moderna vaccines to be authorized for at least the elderly and high-risk in the near future (possibly today), and possibly that your booster won't need to be the same type of vaccine as your original shot.

I've seen a preprint of a _small_ study that at least suggests that mix-and-matching booster with your original vaccination is effective, though it noted that it was small enough to not be able to compare regimens.  They couldn't say whether a person who got Pfizer for an initial vaccination would be better off with another vaccine for their booster, just that any other vaccine would give benefits.

*Update:* The FDA did give authorization for mix-and-match booster shots today.  This means they find it safe and effective.  The CDC will meet tomorrow about their guidance as to who should be seeking boosters, and when.


----------



## Zardnaar

Is Delta less deadly than last year's strains? Sample size might be to small here but iirc we had around 1500 cases and 23 deaths. 

 Delt I think we're around 2000 cases and deaths are now 28 and I think some of them were in smaller leaks so Delta killed maybe 2-3 people. 

 Doomsday scenario was 80k dead here but I had severe doubts on that. Proportionally 5-10k seemed more likely. 

 Deltas different though plus vaccines. Looking at excess deaths from last year we had 400 less. Skipped flu season 2020/2021.


----------



## Deset Gled

Zardnaar said:


> Is Delta less deadly than last year's strains?




Delta is known to be more transmittable, which means it can affect more people, and thus cause more deaths.  Last I read, the statistics are still out on whether it's more likely to kill once someone contracts it.  Part of the reason it's harder to tell is because the death rate is highly dependent on rates of vaccination and availability of health services (i.e. ventilators, ICU beds, etc), not just the virus itself.


----------



## Umbran

Deset Gled said:


> Delta is known to be more transmittable, which means it can affect more people, and thus cause more deaths.  Last I read, the statistics are still out on whether it's more likely to kill once someone contracts it.  Part of the reason it's harder to tell is because the death rate is highly dependent on rates of vaccination and availability of health services (i.e. ventilators, ICU beds, etc), not just the virus itself.




Yeah, "is it less deadly?" is a complicated question, if only because whether you die depends a lot on what hospital resources are available.

An easier to use metric is that once you have the delta variant, you are not any more likely to need to go to the hospital than with the original strain.  Delta is more transmissible, so barring vaccination, for the same human behaviors you'll get more infected people, but their individual chances of needing hospitalization are no greater.


----------



## Umbran

Other covid news today:

The White House coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients has said that the administration has prepared for the hopeful authorization of vaccines for children ages 5-11, having purchased vaccines and packaged supporting supplies for easy deployment to pediatricians, hospitals, and all.  With this came news that such authorization may be coming in the next couple of weeks.  









						The U.S. is ready to roll out the COVID vaccine once it's approved for kids age 5-11
					

The White House says the U.S. has enough doses for the country's 28 million kids age 5 to 11 and has laid out a plan to get them inoculated as soon as the vaccine is authorized for the age group.




					www.wbur.org
				




Additionally, a study suggests that natural immunity may not last very long, and that those who are unvaccinated may expect to catch covid every 16-17 months!   One study does not mean it is true, but it is an eventuality worth considering









						Unvaccinated people should expect to catch COVID-19 every 16 months
					

“Our results are based on average times of waning immunity across multiple infected individuals.”




					thehill.com


----------



## NotAYakk

Delta is probably more deadly.  But in the ballpark 1.5x to 2x not 10x.

But if you vaccinate the 5% most vulnerable of the population, covid is more like 10x less deadly.  Vaccinate more, biasing towards most vulnerable, and its lethality rate drops.

In Alberta, the Texas of Canada, fully vaccinated (AZ+mRNA or mRNA x2) 80 year olds are safer than 20 year old unvaccinated people.

There are lots.of studies now showing Viral Vector is noticably weaker than mRNA, but VV+mRNA srcond dose is about as good as double mRNA.  (this makes sense, as immunith to the vector makes the 2nd dose less effective).

My city just hit 90% of age 12+ with at least one dose (lowest rate 20-40 at under 80%).  We have indoor dining (vaccine passport, modest spacing), churches/etc with 50 people in them, schools are open and at 80%+ of pre covid in person, and Delta's Rf is a smidge under 1.

More and more people are using n95/kn95 masks.

As a full vaccination drops delta infection 10x or so, and 95 masks (even crappily worn) also 10, the end is nigh.  Elementary is currently a source of spread, which will stop once we vaccinate them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Fruit glut due to Covid hitting exports. 

 Avocados 9 cents each (6.3 US cents approx).









						Nine-cent avocados: Glut leads to low prices - but it's not so flash for growers
					

A glut of avocados this year has led in extraordinarily low prices at the supermarket, despite growers not being able to make any money.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

In Texas, the Texas of America, we’re in the process of voting on a slate of constitutional amendments, one of which I mention because it is germane to this discussion.  Basically, the proposal is to prohibit  the state government or any subdivision thereof from restricting religious services.  As in, the state, county or municipalities would be constitutionally barred from limiting religious services in any way.*  That means no government-imposed mask mandates or limitations on gathering sizes could be applied to houses of worship during an epidemic/pandemic. *

And apparently, in the entire history of the state, only one proposed amendment has been defeated at the polls.

IOW, as bad as Texas handled a pandemic this time around, we’re laying the groundwork to do even worse the next time,


----------



## Janx

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In Texas, the Texas of America, we’re in the process of voting on a slate of constitutional amendments, one of which I mention because it is germane to this discussion.  Basically, the proposal is to prohibit  the state government or any subdivision thereof from restricting religious services.  As in, the state, county or municipalities would be constitutionally barred from limiting religious services in any way.*  That means no government-imposed mask mandates or limitations on gathering sizes could be applied to houses of worship during an epidemic/pandemic. *
> 
> And apparently, in the entire history of the state, only one proposed amendment has been defeated at the polls.
> 
> IOW, as bad as Texas handled a pandemic this time around, we’re laying the groundwork to do even worse the next time,



and nobody knows that's on the ballot. Which is how they pull that crap.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> IOW, as bad as Texas handled a pandemic this time around, we’re laying the groundwork to do even worse the next time,




I was reading an opinion piece from the New York Times today, which was lauding one official for speaking straight about mix-and-match vaccines a few months ago - "treating the public like they can handle uncertainty and nuance".

Which, obviously, we can't, as seen above.  Health officials can't speak to the public like intelligent adults unless we are willing to behave like intelligent adults.


----------



## NotAYakk

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In Texas, the Texas of America, we’re in the process of voting on a slate of constitutional amendments, one of which I mention because it is germane to this discussion.  Basically, the proposal is to prohibit  the state government or any subdivision thereof from restricting religious services.  As in, the state, county or municipalities would be constitutionally barred from limiting religious services in any way.*  That means no government-imposed mask mandates or limitations on gathering sizes could be applied to houses of worship during an epidemic/pandemic. *
> 
> And apparently, in the entire history of the state, only one proposed amendment has been defeated at the polls.
> 
> IOW, as bad as Texas handled a pandemic this time around, we’re laying the groundwork to do even worse the next time,



Look on the bright side.

A religion that believes in union rights who wants to have a meeting blocking entrance into a factory cannot be restricted from doing so.  A religion that believes that the state has no legitimacy can hold services blocking the government from meeting in the government's meeting place.  A religion that believes private property is unethical can hold meetings in the private residences of Texas state government representatives.

It could be a funny trainwreck.

(And of course, such interpretations will be blocked; this is about a back door bypass of the "establishment of religion" in Texas, not about religious freedom.  It is about giving correct religions are given special rights with a thin veneer of not being the government supporting certain religions with special rights.)


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> (And of course, such interpretations will be blocked;




Not necessarily.  I can think of at least one organization that has challenged such things successfully.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NotAYakk said:


> Look on the bright side.
> 
> A religion that believes in union rights who wants to have a meeting blocking entrance into a factory cannot be restricted from doing so.  A religion that believes that the state has no legitimacy can hold services blocking the government from meeting in the government's meeting place.  A religion that believes private property is unethical can hold meetings in the private residences of Texas state government representatives.



All of your examples are already covered and permitted by existing law.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Janx said:


> and nobody knows that's on the ballot. Which is how they pull that crap.



It’s worse than that: it-and all the other proposals have been in the print & tv news.

The _wording_ of Prop3 on the ballot, however, is vague as hell, almost like a weaksauce plagiaristic version of the Federal laws regarding separation of church & state and freedom of religion.  In the context of a Bible Belt state that has had numerous and ongoing acrimonious disputes between state, county and municipal politicians on how to handle C19, it’s another cynical “pro-virus” move at the state level.


----------



## Mallus

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The _wording_ of Prop3 on the ballot, however, is vague as hell, almost like a weaksauce plagiaristic version of the Federal laws regarding separation of church & state and freedom of religion.  In the context of a Bible Belt state that has had numerous and ongoing acrimonious disputes between state, county and municipal politicians on how to handle C19, it’s another cynical “pro-virus” move at the state level.



Is it worded worse than in the Texas law that gave us the "teach both sides of the Holocaust" kerfuffle?


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Mallus said:


> Is it worded worse than in the Texas law that gave us the "teach both sides of the Holocaust" kerfuffle?



Wait, sorry, what? Was that seriously a thing?!?!


----------



## niklinna

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Wait, sorry, what? Was that seriously a thing?!?!











						Texas School Administrator to Teachers: Teach "Opposing" Sides of the Holocaust
					

The comments came just a few days after the district reprimanded a teacher for having an anti-racist book.




					truthout.org


----------



## J.Quondam

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Wait, sorry, what? Was that seriously a thing?!?!



"Was"?
LoL, nope! This was barely a week ago. It still _*is*_ a thing.


----------



## Umbran

I think the Texas "opposing sides" thing is rather out of scope for a discussion of Covid-19 and gaming, folks.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> I think the Texas "opposing sides" thing is rather out of scope for a discussion of Covid-19 and gaming, folks.




You're right, of course, but it _does_ give some context for why it's so difficult to get people to cooperate, even when the stakes are high. People just really are _all kinds_ of difficult.


----------



## MoonSong

FitzTheRuke said:


> You're right, of course, but it _does_ give some context for why it's so difficult to get people to cooperate, even when the stakes are high. People just really are _all kinds_ of difficult.



It is human nature, not just a matter of political sides, as seen by that time WoW became an unintentional outbreak simulator:









						What a WoW virtual outbreak taught us about how humans behave in epidemics
					

Revisiting a seminal 2007 paper modeling WoW's Corrupted Blood incident.




					arstechnica.com
				












						Corrupted Blood incident - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Zardnaar

New framework. Red/orange/green rates tied to vaccine levels (double dosed). 

 Basically hit 90% vaccine rates no lockdowns. 

 Some sort of vaccine passport as well. No vaccine no service. 









						Govt reveals its Covid-19 Protection Framework
					

The government has announced details of its Covid-19 Protection Framework, involving the roll-out of a 'traffic-light' system once all DHBs hit 90 percent full vaccination rates.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 See what happens though once Covid spreads more.

DHB= District Health Board. 

 Few places are hitting 90% for first dose.


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s worse than that: it-and all the other proposals have been in the print & tv news.
> 
> The _wording_ of Prop3 on the ballot, however, is vague as hell, almost like a weaksauce plagiaristic version of the Federal laws regarding separation of church & state and freedom of religion.  In the context of a Bible Belt state that has had numerous and ongoing acrimonious disputes between state, county and municipal politicians on how to handle C19, it’s another cynical “pro-virus” move at the state level.



We've been grappling with this is Wisconsin too, not at the level of pushing an amendment yet, but with a high court tending toward looking at the separation of church and state as meaning the church has special privileges to avoid *any* sort of regulation, including public health and safety regulations about crowd size. Too many on the SCOTUS are inclined to go that way as well.


----------



## Umbran

*Mod Note:*
Folks, this thread is not, and will not become, a discussion of the separation of church and state.  Please bring it back around.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> New framework. Red/orange/green rates tied to vaccine levels (double dosed).
> 
> Basically hit 90% vaccine rates no lockdowns.
> 
> Some sort of vaccine passport as well. No vaccine no service.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Govt reveals its Covid-19 Protection Framework
> 
> 
> The government has announced details of its Covid-19 Protection Framework, involving the roll-out of a 'traffic-light' system once all DHBs hit 90 percent full vaccination rates.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> See what happens though once Covid spreads more.
> 
> DHB= District Health Board.
> 
> Few places are hitting 90% for first dose.



NZ is doing a good job of getting people vaccinated looks like.  Already past 90% first dose (I assume of those eligible?  Or adults?) in some areas.

Good on you.

...

In Ontario, the vaccine passport is needed for non-essential indoor activities; bars, restaurants, gyms.  It is your vaccine reciept, or a barcode that is a key into a central Database that gives the validator your name and I think DOB.

...

My city finally hit 90% first dose like a week ago, and we had a huge head start on you folk.

Or second dose is closer to 90%, but your looks like it will catch up (due to the 4+ week delay).

Note that your relative rush with 2nd doses means that boosters are more likely to be useful; there is evidence that a delay between 1st and 2nd makes the 2nd more effective.

...

At 90% one dose and like ~84% fully vaccinated (age 12+), vaccine passport for indoor use, schools open with modest masking (they eat indoors and take off their masks to do so, modest filtering of air), indoors requiring masks, indoor gathering capped at 10-50, and probably 5%-10% infected over pandemic, we are seeing a virus spread of under 1.0 (number of people newly sick per day is flat or down).

Kids appear to be spreading delta reasonably well despite their lower chance of symptoms.  So getting age 5-11 vaccinated at 90%+ and a few more percentage points on the rest of the population (age 20-40 has a low vaccine rate still, and low compliance rate on social distancing, those horny kids), and we are looking good.

The nasty part is that Delta is so virulent, if we relax restrictions it will burn its way through the unvaxxed population.  And we don't have the health care capacity to provide ICU vents for all of the people who get sick, even with 95% age 70+ vaccinated and 80%+ of other ages.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> NZ is doing a good job of getting people vaccinated looks like.  Already past 90% first dose (I assume of those eligible?  Or adults?) in some areas.
> 
> Good on you.
> 
> ...
> 
> In Ontario, the vaccine passport is needed for non-essential indoor activities; bars, restaurants, gyms.  It is your vaccine reciept, or a barcode that is a key into a central Database that gives the validator your name and I think DOB.
> 
> ...
> 
> My city finally hit 90% first dose like a week ago, and we had a huge head start on you folk.
> 
> Or second dose is closer to 90%, but your looks like it will catch up (due to the 4+ week delay).
> 
> Note that your relative rush with 2nd doses means that boosters are more likely to be useful; there is evidence that a delay between 1st and 2nd makes the 2nd more effective.
> 
> ...
> 
> At 90% one dose and like ~84% fully vaccinated (age 12+), vaccine passport for indoor use, schools open with modest masking (they eat indoors and take off their masks to do so, modest filtering of air), indoors requiring masks, indoor gathering capped at 10-50, and probably 5%-10% infected over pandemic, we are seeing a virus spread of under 1.0 (number of people newly sick per day is flat or down).
> 
> Kids appear to be spreading delta reasonably well despite their lower chance of symptoms.  So getting age 5-11 vaccinated at 90%+ and a few more percentage points on the rest of the population (age 20-40 has a low vaccine rate still, and low compliance rate on social distancing, those horny kids), and we are looking good.
> 
> The nasty part is that Delta is so virulent, if we relax restrictions it will burn its way through the unvaxxed population.  And we don't have the health care capacity to provide ICU vents for all of the people who get sick, even with 95% age 70+ vaccinated and 80%+ of other ages.




They were recommending six weeks between doses. But they're pushing it asap now. 

 We have half the ICU capacity here than other OECD nations they're big on prevention.

 90% is single dose.


----------



## Zardnaar

Bit of regionalism going on here. First case found in the South Island since 2020. 









						'The wake-up call the South Island needed': Covid-19 in Blenheim is South's first community case since 2020
					

It's hoped unvaccinated people go get a jab after news of the first South Island community case in nearly a year.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Social media " ha ha suck it might encourage the South Island to get vaccinated". 

 Blenheims vaccination rate 90%/76% single/double rates. 

  At 90% no lockdowns or restrictions.


----------



## Zardnaar

Auckland hit 90% today first dose, 75% double dosed. 

 Country overall 86%/70%.









						Covid-19: Auckland hits 90 per cent first doses, 75 per cent fully vaccinated
					

Aucklanders have something to celebrate this weekend - a 90 per cent first dose rate.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> They were recommending six weeks between doses. But they're pushing it asap now.
> 
> We have half the ICU capacity here than other OECD nations they're big on prevention.
> 
> 90% is single dose.



We did like 3 months between doses in Canada initially (if I remember right), except the most vulnerable.

Then we accelerated the schedule as more doses became available and delta hit.

High vaccine coverage not only lowers ICU and Death rates, but also lowers transmission; if you are 10x less likely to catch it (which is the ballpark for a fully vaccinated person against delta), you can't spread it if you don't catch it.  (Once you catch it you are just as infectious, but probably for a shorter window on average).


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> (Once you catch it you are just as infectious, but probably for a shorter window on average).




This is still in question, but there's growing evidence that it may not be true.

Early statements that people with breakthrough infections were "just as infectious" were based on viral counts in the nasal passages - where were still frighteningly high, even in vaccinated people showing little in way of symptoms.

However, more studies are coming out of actual transmission from vaccinated people, and they are not as high as we'd expect for those viral counts.  The current best explanation of this is that while there's still a lot of virus in the nasal passages, there's also high antibody concentrations there - so virus may be present, but so coated with antibodies as to be ineffective.

These aren't what I'd call dependable results, though, and there are many details to be studied, so keep wearing your masks, and all that.


----------



## Mirtek

Zardnaar said:


> New framework. Red/orange/green rates tied to vaccine levels (double dosed).
> 
> Basically hit 90% vaccine rates no lockdowns.
> 
> Some sort of vaccine passport as well. No vaccine no service.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Govt reveals its Covid-19 Protection Framework
> 
> 
> The government has announced details of its Covid-19 Protection Framework, involving the roll-out of a 'traffic-light' system once all DHBs hit 90 percent full vaccination rates.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> See what happens though once Covid spreads more.
> 
> DHB= District Health Board.
> 
> Few places are hitting 90% for first dose.



Denmark abandoned all Covid meassures with their "freedom day" in early september when they were at ~85% of eligible people (~73 is meassuring total population). Since the end of Semptember their rate of daily new infections per 100k has been skyrocketing and is not again nearing all time high.

136/100k as of 20th of October, with 173/100k being their all time high, despite the rate of fully vaccinated people have also climbed by another 2% (of total population)

90% of all eligible isn't that much higher than Denmark is now, so looking at the meassures (or rather lack of meassures) on those three levels, I fear you can expect a huge increase in cases in NZ by until end of winter. Silver lining is that most would not be severe for the infected


In Germany there was a club party with 380 guests admitting only fully vaccinated or recovered people. 81 confirmed infections among them. The certificates of the infected have been check by the authorities and they were all valid, so it's not just the club not enforcing the rules correctly.

Also a small ring of cerficate fakers has been busted, who were selling fake vaccation certificates for 350 EUR a piece. The authorities are not able to actually track and void the certificates that they have already sold, due to the way the database is set up due to data privacy restrictions.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

I think it's "funny" how many people I've seen that complain "vaccine passports destroy our privacy rights!"... on social media.  Hey gang, you've destroyed your own privacy by even being ON social media!


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> Denmark abandoned all Covid meassures with their "freedom day" in early september when they were at ~85% of eligible people (~73 is meassuring total population). Since the end of Semptember their rate of daily new infections per 100k has been skyrocketing and is not again nearing all time high.
> 
> 136/100k as of 20th of October, with 173/100k being their all time high, despite the rate of fully vaccinated people have also climbed by another 2% (of total population)
> 
> 90% of all eligible isn't that much higher than Denmark is now, so looking at the meassures (or rather lack of meassures) on those three levels, I fear you can expect a huge increase in cases in NZ by until end of winter. Silver lining is that most would not be severe for the infected
> 
> 
> In Germany there was a club party with 380 guests admitting only fully vaccinated or recovered people. 81 confirmed infections among them. The certificates of the infected have been check by the authorities and they were all valid, so it's not just the club not enforcing the rules correctly.
> 
> Also a small ring of cerficate fakers has been busted, who were selling fake vaccation certificates for 350 EUR a piece. The authorities are not able to actually track and void the certificates that they have already sold, due to the way the database is set up due to data privacy restrictions.




 Here I think the passport is going to be electronic linked to government database via your phone. 

 Anyone here with half a brain has figured out there's gonna be an upsurge in cases. 

 I've got a vest and worst case scenario number. 90% is going to be hard to hit in some locations but there's a get out of jail review for November. 

 Theory is they'll open at 85% or whatever if need be. Christmas/summer holidays over new years etc. 

 Aucklands been locked down since August and people won't tolerate it for much longer. Even the non nutters are sick of it. 

 And people have worked out there's very little consequences if you do break the rules except if you organize demonstrations of a couple of thousand people. 

 Even then the guy who did that broke bail organized another one and got bail again so go figure.


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> I think it's "funny" how many people I've seen that complain "vaccine passports destroy our privacy rights!"... on social media.  Hey gang, you've destroyed your own privacy by even being ON social media!




You have destroyed much of your own privacy by having a modern browser and smartphone, even.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> You have destroyed much of your own privacy by having a modern browser and smartphone, even.




Yeah, I've made the joke a few times with people that "they" (whoever that is) don't need to inject us with microchips. (Hold up a phone.) We're carrying them around in our pockets!


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> Yeah, I've made the joke a few times with people that "they" (whoever that is) don't need to inject us with microchips. (Hold up a phone.) We're carrying them around in our pockets!




 After my second shot I found the reception from the mothership improved heaps!!!!.

 I wanted all the vaccine shots so I could build an iPhone. Then I can say (in smug voice) "I've got an iPhone".


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> Yeah, I've made the joke a few times with people that "they" (whoever that is) don't need to inject us with microchips. (Hold up a phone.) We're carrying them around in our pockets!



Always reminds me of the episode of South Park in which both Cartman and Alec Baldwin got social media brain implants.


----------



## MoonSong

Uff. We have been one week in "green" -which only means that official numbers are on a sustained downward slide and thus restrictions are on the least restrictive they'll be-, and I've already seen mask usage in my community plummet... People really seem to want to get sick.  

Anywaay, I'm sure we'll be back to being closed after Good Weekend (our country's version of Black Friday)


----------



## Hussar

It is so weird watching football from the States.  Full stadiums and barely a mask to be seen.  Then I watch sports here in Japan and no one, other than the athletes, are unmasked, and the athletes, as soon as they finish whatever they are doing, mask up.  It's just so automatic.

I mean, I live in a city of close to a million and we're averaging 9 cases a day now.  We never closed restaurants.  We never shut down schools.  About the only thing that closed were the bars after 8 pm.  And even that was only for a month.

It's just all so bloody frustrating.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> It is so weird watching football from the States.  Full stadiums and barely a mask to be seen.  Then I watch sports here in Japan and no one, other than the athletes, are unmasked, and the athletes, as soon as they finish whatever they are doing, mask up.  It's just so automatic.
> 
> I mean, I live in a city of close to a million and we're averaging 9 cases a day now.  We never closed restaurants.  We never shut down schools.  About the only thing that closed were the bars after 8 pm.  And even that was only for a month.
> 
> It's just all so bloody frustrating.




 Different cultures with emphasis on collective responsibility. 

 Here the Asian community is the highest vaxxed demographic in the country ranging from 95% up to 98%. 

 That was a few weeks ago.

 Vax rates are also good indicators of how much people trust the government. They're very low in parts of Eastern Europe.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Different cultures with emphasis on collective responsibility.
> 
> Here the Asian community is the highest vaxxed demographic in the country ranging from 95% up to 98%.
> 
> That was a few weeks ago.
> 
> Vax rates are also good indicators of how much people trust the government. They're very low in parts of Eastern Europe.



Oh, for sure.  I get that.  Doesn't mean I have to like it though.

I wonder what people think, if they care at all, how history will judge them.  I mean, we look at people like Mary Malone as horrible monsters.  She was a mass murderer who lived out most of her life behind bars and is now synonymous with idiocy and plague.  

Do people really think that history is going to exonerate them?


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Oh, for sure.  I get that.  Doesn't mean I have to like it though.
> 
> I wonder what people think, if they care at all, how history will judge them.  I mean, we look at people like Mary Malone as horrible monsters.  She was a mass murderer who lived out most of her life behind bars and is now synonymous with idiocy and plague.
> 
> Do people really think that history is going to exonerate them?




 Who knows. Might not matter in the grand scheme of things.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Do people really think that history is going to exonerate them?




I don't know that most of them care about the opinion of history all that much.  Of those that have considered it, their attitude probably falls into the realm of, "if you disagree with me, it is because of a personal flaw on your part."  If history doesn't agree with them, history is wrong, written by their enemies.


----------



## NotAYakk

There being a history is a winning condition at this point.

---

So the parent of a good friend of my kid is being vaccine hesitant.  They don't have it; they want "more research", and their parent had a vaccine injury (of which there are like 12 serious ones in the entire country?).

My kid asked their kid if they are getting vaccinated, and the other kid was like "maybe", and my kid was "maybe we can't be friends anymore". :'(

I found out about it because their kid told their parent, and their parent sent an email to my spouse.

So, that is a thing.


----------



## Hussar

I mean, what do people expect?  If you have vaccinated your kids and whatnot, how happy are you going to be if your kids go to play at someone's house that you know has never been vaccinated?  It's going to be a real issue.  People who choose not to get vaccinated should be aware that that choice will have a lot of consequences.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> People who choose not to get vaccinated should be aware that that choice will have a lot of consequences.




But... consequences are for other people!


----------



## Eltab

Hussar said:


> I mean, what do people expect?  If you have vaccinated your kids and whatnot, how happy are you going to be if your kids go to play at someone's house that you know has never been vaccinated?



I would be unhappy with the vaccine manufacturer(s) for selling product that does not actually allow me to stop 'walking on eggshells' about catching the germ.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Eltab said:


> I would be unhappy with the vaccine manufacturer(s) for selling product that does not actually allow me to stop 'walking on eggshells' about catching the germ.



Man, I get tired of people thinking that because the vaccines are not 100% perfect, then they're crap. A thing can be an amazing work of genius and still not be perfect.


----------



## Garthanos

NotAYakk said:


> My kid asked their kid if they are getting vaccinated, and the other kid was like "maybe", and my kid was "maybe we can't be friends anymore". :'(



A solid response...


----------



## Hussar

Eltab said:


> I would be unhappy with the vaccine manufacturer(s) for selling product that does not actually allow me to stop 'walking on eggshells' about catching the germ.



Wait... what?

No vaccine works like that.  You don't catch measles because you alone are vaccinated.  You don't catch it because EVERYONE is vaccinated.  That's the whole issue with the anti-vaccination movement.  Not that it's dangerous to their own children, that's a somewhat separate issue.  It's that their children are now a danger to everyone around them.

Do people actually believe that vaccinations mean that you can never get sick?


----------



## J.Quondam

Eltab said:


> I would be unhappy with the vaccine manufacturer(s) for selling product that does not actually allow me to stop 'walking on eggshells' about catching the germ.



A vaccine doesn't prevent someone from "catching the germ."  It decreases the odds of getting ill or experiencing more serious symptoms than you might otherwise. It helps fight off the germ more effectively, and it can make you less contagious, but the virus _can_ still get inside a body. 
It's not like a vaccine sews someone's mouth and nostrils shut to keep out the virus.

Admittedly, though, a vaccine that sowed misinformation peddlers mouths shut _would_ be pretty sweet!


----------



## Hussar

I saw a meme on Facebook the other day that showed a kindergarten teacher with like three kids, all sitting on the floor and all masked.  A bunch of my friends were talking about how sad the picture looked.  I was just shaking my head.  Here we are, teaching children social responsibility and caring for others, all those "values" that folks keep insisting aren't being taught in school, and the very same people that are touting how great homeschooling is, are ignoring the fact that this is EXACTLY what we should be teaching children. :boggle:


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> I would be unhappy with the vaccine manufacturer(s) for selling product that does not actually allow me to stop 'walking on eggshells' about catching the germ.




With respect, dude, _NOTHING_ in biology and medicine work like that.  There are no silver bullets.


----------



## niklinna

Eltab said:


> I would be unhappy with the vaccine manufacturer(s) for selling product that does not actually allow me to stop 'walking on eggshells' about catching the germ.



Well, if _you and the people around you_ got vaccinated, you wouldn't have to walk on eggshells, because you'd all have some resistance to the germ reproducing in your cells, and it wouldn't be able to propagate as well (not "at all"—that isn't how vaccines or the immune system work).


----------



## Cadence

Hussar said:


> I saw a meme on Facebook the other day that showed a kindergarten teacher with like three kids, all sitting on the floor and all masked.  A bunch of my friends were talking about how sad the picture looked.  I was just shaking my head.  Here we are, teaching children social responsibility and caring for others, all those "values" that folks keep insisting aren't being taught in school, and the very same people that are touting how great homeschooling is, are ignoring the fact that this is EXACTLY what we should be teaching children. :boggle:



According to others, a relative of mine vented on social media about how upset one of their children was having to go to school masked.  I wonder if the child caught the attitude from the parent, because I'm virtually certain the parent would have expressed said attitude in front of the child regularly.


----------



## Zardnaar

Vaccines to me are like a seatbelt. Seatbelts don't guarantee you won't die but they reduced the odds. 

 Or steel capped safety boots. Won't stop your foot being crushed in a press but will protect your toes from falling objects.


----------



## cmad1977

Eltab said:


> I would be unhappy with the vaccine manufacturer(s) for selling product that does not actually allow me to stop 'walking on eggshells' about catching the germ.




Not understanding the very basics of vaccines at this point is inexcusable. At this point your ignorance is deliberate.


----------



## cmad1977

Hussar said:


> I saw a meme on Facebook the other day that showed a kindergarten teacher with like three kids, all sitting on the floor and all masked. A bunch of my friends were talking about how sad the picture looked. I was just shaking my head. Here we are, teaching children social responsibility and caring for others, all those "values" that folks keep insisting aren't being taught in school, and the very same people that are touting how great homeschooling is, are ignoring the fact that this is EXACTLY what we should be teaching children. :boggle:




Dude. We explained to my daughter two years ago (she was… almost 5) why we wear a mask and she just said “oh. Ok.” She’s never complained once. It’s like kids are taught in want to care about one another. Can’t have that!


----------



## Umbran

cmad1977 said:


> At this point your ignorance is deliberate.




Please don't make it personal.  Thanks.


----------



## Umbran

cmad1977 said:


> Dude. We explained to my daughter two years ago (she was… almost 5) why we wear a mask and she just said “oh. Ok.” She’s never complained once. It’s like kids are taught in want to care about one another. Can’t have that!




From what I've seen, kids have had darn little problem adjusting to masks.  I am sure there are a couple, but by and large, kids do just fine.


----------



## billd91

Hussar said:


> I saw a meme on Facebook the other day that showed a kindergarten teacher with like three kids, all sitting on the floor and all masked.  A bunch of my friends were talking about how sad the picture looked.  I was just shaking my head.  Here we are, teaching children social responsibility and caring for others, all those "values" that folks keep insisting aren't being taught in school, and the very same people that are touting how great homeschooling is, are ignoring the fact that this is EXACTLY what we should be teaching children. :boggle:



You know, it's possible to do something and still lament that you have to do it. I don't care if people think it's "sad" as long as they continue to do it. I'm inconvenienced by wearing a mask - I don't like doing it. But I do it because it's the right thing to do. I can still grumble about it.


----------



## niklinna

billd91 said:


> You know, it's possible to do something and still lament that you have to do it. I don't care if people think it's "sad" as long as they continue to do it. I'm inconvenienced by wearing a mask - I don't like doing it. But I do it because it's the right thing to do. I can still grumble about it.



Aye, but there's a difference between "it's a shame we have to do this to protect one another" and "you can't tread on my rights you commies!"


----------



## Zardnaar

Well on social media a hikoi (walk) of 12000 was planned to storm the barricades at Auckland. The cops would be overwhelmed. They used cars instead of walking. 

 They were to push through into Northland and end up at the maraes (Maori meeting house).

 I think it's so they could play the racist card if stopped. 

 Around 50-100 turned up the cops told them to bugger off and they went and sat in a field beside the road. 

 Maori protocol to enter a Marae is to be invited and the elders etc made it clear they didn't want them blaming anti vaxxers and other groups not grass root organizations. 

 Of course they also use the united tribes flag every protest uses that these days I suppose it's for legitimacy purposes perhaps.









						Protesters 'continue to put the wider community at risk' - police
					

Occupants of a car and a bus deliberately parked to obstruct traffic on SH1 only moved out of the way this afternoon after "lengthy engagement with police".




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Even if they got through the cops they may run into some of the local iwi boys. Good luck with that.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> From what I've seen, kids have had darn little problem adjusting to masks.  I am sure there are a couple, but by and large, kids do just fine.



I can attest to this. My mother is an elementary school music teacher, and started teaching music in elementary schools towards the beginning of the pandemic. She teaches around a dozen classes in her school district and has had very little problems getting kids to wear masks at school. 

They can definitely handle it. In some cases, they can do so better than many adults, as kids are often more adaptable to new circumstances.


----------



## Hussar

billd91 said:


> You know, it's possible to do something and still lament that you have to do it. I don't care if people think it's "sad" as long as they continue to do it. I'm inconvenienced by wearing a mask - I don't like doing it. But I do it because it's the right thing to do. I can still grumble about it.



Fair enough.  And, I suppose, at this point, it's kinda hard to separate a grumble from the outright opposition of masking.  IOW, I may have over reacted.    Would certainly not be the first time.  

I guess it was the point how the bunch of them were so happy that they homeschooled their kids so they weren't being forced to wear masks.  Just sort of hit the wrong chord for me.

I walked home from work last night, ten o'clock at night, not a person on the street (I live in a fairly small town), and I forgot my mask.  Got about a third of the way home before I kinda twigged on it and felt so weird to walk the rest of the way.  It's like when you're a kid and you have to wear pants for the first time after wearing shorts for a couple of months.  That sort of, "Hrm, something's not quite right" feeling.


----------



## billd91

Hussar said:


> I walked home from work last night, ten o'clock at night, not a person on the street (I live in a fairly small town), and I forgot my mask.  Got about a third of the way home before I kinda twigged on it and felt so weird to walk the rest of the way.  It's like when you're a kid and you have to wear pants for the first time after wearing shorts for a couple of months.  That sort of, "Hrm, something's not quite right" feeling.



Wait… I have to wear *pants*? (Says the guy who has been working from home for over 18 months)


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> Wait… I have to wear *pants*? (Says the guy who has been working from home for over 18 months)




When I started working from home, I gave myself a rule - no "going to work" without pants that require a belt. So, cargo shorts are allowed, but sweatpants are not.


----------



## Marc_C

Umbran said:


> When I started working from home, I gave myself a rule - no "going to work" without pants that require a belt. So, cargo shorts are allowed, but sweatpants are not.



For me its the shoes. Formal leather shoes are a must to get the correct office vibe at home, even if I'm wear a t-shirt and jeans.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> When I started working from home, I gave myself a rule - no "going to work" without pants that require a belt. So, cargo shorts are allowed, but sweatpants are not.



Huh. I been wearing my PJs for the last decade.

Very comfy now.


----------



## Ryujin

Janx said:


> Huh. I been wearing my PJs for the last decade.
> 
> Very comfy now.



They might need a wash. Just sayin',


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> Huh. I been wearing my PJs for the last decade.




To each their own.


----------



## Zardnaar

Woke up this morning with wife dripping an F bomb at 6am. 

 Two cases of Christchurchwhich us 4 hours north of where I live. That feeling you get just waiting for Covid to arrive. 

 What me worry?.




 Sun's out could be worse.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Pandemic silver lining: public health anti-COVID measures like masking, distancing, and more rigor in hand washing seems to have driven one of the major influenza strains into extinction.  So far this year, no instances of that strain have been cultured from humans.









						COVID Pandemic May Have Driven a Flu Strain Into Extinction
					

One of the four flu strains -- B/Yamagata -- included in annual flu shots appears to have fallen off the radar.




					www.webmd.com


----------



## Zardnaar

New social media campaign to storm the barricades into Auckland. 

 Last time 15000 brave souls signed up. IRL about 50 turned up. 

 This time around 1000 brave souls are apparently gonna try. 

 Figure 5 will turn up.


----------



## Imaculata

Meanwhile in the Netherlands, cases are skyrocketing. We're back to where we were, with the entire country colored red.

The people here think that if you ignore an epidemic, that it will go away. No one is masking, everyone is carrying on with life as usual. If history has taught us anything, then they are going to find that they are very VERY wrong.


----------



## niklinna

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Pandemic silver lining: public health anti-COVID measures like masking, distancing, and more rigor in hand washing seems to have driven one of the major influenza strains into extinction.  So far this year, no instances of that strain have been cultured from humans.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID Pandemic May Have Driven a Flu Strain Into Extinction
> 
> 
> One of the four flu strains -- B/Yamagata -- included in annual flu shots appears to have fallen off the radar.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.webmd.com



And that's with poor compliance! Imagine what we could do if we could get everybody on protocol together for a couple weeks. (Yes, I realize what a stupendously difficult thing that would be.)


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

niklinna said:


> And that's with poor compliance! Imagine what we could do if we could get everybody on protocol together for a couple weeks. (Yes, I realize what a stupendously difficult thing that would be.)



Reminds me of a What If? about trying to eradicate the common cold by just isolating everyone from each other for a few weeks. (I couldn't find it on his site, just google "XKCD What If Common Cold" to find it.)


----------



## Hussar

Woot!  A bit of good news.  Broke our previous record.  4 days now without a new case:


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Woot!  A bit of good news.  Broke our previous record.  4 days now without a new case:




 Calm before storm my city. Probably more community spread up north than the numbers indicate. Covid for Christmas or within a week shrugs.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

niklinna said:


> And that's with poor compliance! Imagine what we could do if we could get everybody on protocol together for a couple weeks. (Yes, I realize what a stupendously difficult thing that would be.)



Growing up in a medical household, I’ve gotten to hear my Dad’s frustration at the annual death toll for seasonal influenza every year.  Despite the vaccines and simple health care measures that hinder its spread, it‘s still one of the biggest causes of preventable deaths there is.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Growing up in a medical household, I’ve gotten to hear my Dad’s frustration at the annual death toll for seasonal influenza every year.  Despite the vaccines and simple health care measures that hinder its spread, it‘s still one of the biggest causes of preventable deaths there is.



Yeah. One thing I hope remains a part of normal life after the pandemic is wearing a mask if you're symptomatic and have to leave your house for school or work. It could clearly have a huge impact on the flu season every year, but with how many antimaskers exist right now for Covid-19, it probably won't be as common as it should be. 

(Heck, people should just stay home when they're sick. I have no idea why so many people go to work or send their kids to school when they're sick, but they really shouldn't.)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Heck, people should just stay home when they're sick. I have no idea why so many people go to work or send their kids to school when they're sick, but they really shouldn't.



“Money.”  That’s the word you’re looking for.

In our American system, if you don’t have childcare, paid sick leave, and the like, not going to school/work when sick is a luxury.  Add to that a dash of “keeping up with the Joneses”, and you have an interesting intersection for economics and public health.

Personally, going forward, if I’m in a position where I’m sick and have to go out, I’m masking up.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Dannyalcatraz said:


> “Money.”  That’s the word you’re looking for.
> 
> In our American system, if you don’t have childcare, paid sick leave, and the like, not going to school/work when sick is a luxury.  Add to that a dash of “keeping up with the Joneses”, and you have an interesting intersection for economics and public health.



That's definitely a major part of it, but I know people that still send their sick children to school even when they're old enough to stay home by themselves.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

AcererakTriple6 said:


> That's definitely a major part of it, but I know people that still send their sick children to school even when they're old enough to stay home by themselves.



True, true.


----------



## Ryujin

AcererakTriple6 said:


> That's definitely a major part of it, but I know people that still send their sick children to school even when they're old enough to stay home by themselves.



Some people are just selfish. Can't remember if I've mentioned this in the thread before but years ago a co-worker came to work with a serious fever, because he didn't want to miss the departmental holiday lunch. It was a buffet and took place on a Friday in December. The following Monday half of the staff, including myself, were out sick. We were out for a week. The following Monday the other half of the staff went out sick for a week. Only one person out of 150 was in both weeks and he was sick as a dog while working, so obviously also shouldn't have come in.

If you're sick, stay at home.


----------



## niklinna

Ryujin said:


> Some people are just selfish. Can't remember if I've mentioned this in the thread before but years ago a co-worker came to work with a serious fever, because he didn't want to miss the departmental holiday lunch. It was a buffet and took place on a Friday in December. The following Monday half of the staff, including myself, were out sick. We were out for a week. The following Monday the other half of the staff went out sick for a week. Only one person out of 150 was in both weeks and he was sick as a dog while working, so obviously also shouldn't have come in.
> 
> If you're sick, stay at home.



I hope that selfish person got some stern feedback about what they did to their co-workers.


----------



## Ryujin

niklinna said:


> I hope that selfish person got some stern feedback about what they did to their co-workers.



He was a manager so fallout was minimal, at best.


----------



## Hussar

I might be showing my age here, but, I was raised that unless you were dying, you went to work/school because that's the right thing to do.

Of course now, in hindsight, I realize how bad that POV is.    But that whole work ethic thing gets in the way sometimes.


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> I might be showing my age here, but, I was raised that unless you were dying, you went to work/school because that's the right thing to do.
> 
> Of course now, in hindsight, I realize how bad that POV is.    But that whole work ethic thing gets in the way sometimes.



I was raised the same way and it took me quite a while to realize two things: 

1) The "work yourself to death" mentality comes from the employer, not the employee.
2) Working when sick is counter productive, as it ultimately impacts productivity, by serving to take out other workers.


----------



## J.Quondam

Ryujin said:


> I was raised the same way and it took me quite a while to realize two things:
> 
> 1) The "work yourself to death" mentality comes from the employer, not the employee.
> 2) Working when sick is counter productive, as it ultimately impacts productivity, by serving to take out other workers.



... which makes it bizarre that so many employers _still_ haven't figured figure out #2, so they keep on pressuring workers per #1.


----------



## Hussar

Get's even more fun when you're the sole proprietor and employee.  

It's not even my boss telling me to go to work.  It's me telling my &%'#$($%% self.  

((Well, my wife tells me that I'm the boss and she lets me tell other people that anyway...))


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Get's even more fun when you're the sole proprietor and employee.
> 
> It's not even my boss telling me to go to work.  It's me telling my &%'#$($%% self.
> 
> ((Well, my wife tells me that I'm the boss and she lets me tell other people that anyway...))




 You're not infecting anyone else in that scenario. Unless it's customer facing I suppose. 

 I'm sure most of us have probably gone to work sick for whatever reason. Usually because of lack of sick days or boss expects you to/chews you out if you phone in sick.

 Covid they doubled sick days from 5 to 10 think my wife has something like 40 banked in. I used to get 8 before they increased to 10.


----------



## Eltab

If your employer as policy keeps minimal possible staff, taking a day off (sick, vacation, doctor appointment, whatever) equals coming back to two days' worth of work awaiting you.  Because nobody else has the time to spare from their workload to carry some of yours.
If you have a 72-hour bug, you get to dig yourself out of that hole for a week.


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> ... which makes it bizarre that so many employers _still_ haven't figured figure out #2, so they keep on pressuring workers per #1.




It just goes to show how ingrained ideas can continue in the face of data.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> If your employer as policy keeps minimal possible staff, taking a day off (sick, vacation, doctor appointment, whatever) equals coming back to two days' worth of work awaiting you.  Because nobody else has the time to spare from their workload to carry some of yours.
> If you have a 72-hour bug, you get to dig yourself out of that hole for a week.




The father of modern Quality Assurance was  Dr. William Edwards Deming.  He was an engineer and statistician, and the understanding of the impact of many of our mistaken polices are grounded in his work.

One rule he found to hold runs as follows:  Any system to do work has some maximum normal capacity.  But, if you regularly run a system at above about 80% of its maximum capacity, the system will degrade to the point where its new maximum is _below_ that 80%.  And it turns out this holds no matter what the systems is built from - machines or people.  

The inability to take sick days is an example of this.  Since everyone else is working at 100% capacity, nobody has slack time to pick up your work, and you become a bottleneck if you aren't present.  

The problem is that managers and executives don't usually read Deming.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I got exposed to this concept in undergrad economics and reintroduced to it in an MBA program.  And even my profs noted how few people they worked with (in other capacities) grasped that concept.

I will also note that my econ profs- literally the men and women who wrote the textbooks being used to teach the field around the world, testifying before Congress, etc.- were also quick to debunk the work of Arthur Laffer, but were clearly not listened to on that, either.

IOW, there’s a long standing tradition of people ignoring good, solid economic research.  Sometimes up to the point of disaster.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> IOW, there’s a long standing tradition of people ignoring good, solid economic research.  Sometimes up to the point of disaster.




Among other things, there's a fairly strong pressure on leaders of all sorts to NEVER admit that they were wrong.  To change the policy would be admitting the old policy was bad, and they were a bad leader to have that policy.


----------



## MoonSong

Well, in my country taking a sick day is easier, because of worker protections, but it is still a nightmare. You can't be fired for taking a sick day, but you need a doctor's note from one of the two national healthcare providers (depending on whether you work for the government or in the private sector). It is free, and you don't need an appointment, but if you don't have an appointment you need to take a number to see a doctor. And getting a number means having to wait in line with lots of other sick people, outdoors with cold weather, at 5 or 6 in the morning,  all while you are feeling too sick for work. Needles to say I haven't taken a sick day ever, but thankfully I haven't been sick enough that I couldn't work.

 (Reminds me that I need to settle my healthcare paperwork. I haven't had to, because I prefer to go to private practitioners. They are kind of affordable without insurance, and are less overworked. How affordable? Medical tourism is a big deal here. Many Americans book a vacation to here, stay a few days, have their surgery done, recover and go home for far less than it would cost in the US. Or at least pre-pandemic)


----------



## Zardnaar

Here you don't need a medical certificate until day 3. 

 I think the boss can ask for one but they have to pay for it. They never do as the doctor will usually sign something.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A good, if longish, read about how coronaviruses operate in humans and why certain researchers are predicting not only that COVID will be endemic, but _also_ that it may become more like the common cold (a minor nuisance) than the disease we’ve been fighting since 2019.

It should be noted that they recommend vaccination as the quickest path to that possibility.


----------



## Maxperson

First case in Tonga.  A traveler from New Zealand tested positive.









						Tonga's main island locks down after 1st virus case found
					

Tonga's main island will go into lockdown for a week after the South Pacific nation reported its first case of the coronavirus, the government said Monday.  The far-flung archipelago identified its first virus case last week, after a traveler arriving from New Zealand tested positive and...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> A good, if longish, read about how coronaviruses operate in humans and why certain researchers are predicting not only that COVID will be endemic, but _also_ that it may become more like the common cold (a minor nuisance) than the disease we’ve been fighting since 2019.
> 
> It should be noted that they recommend vaccination as the quickest path to that possibility.




Yes.  They also note that this process can take years - it is essentially generational.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Went to church in person for the first time since March of 2020 this Sunday.  Among other things, I got this mixed bag of a story: 

Our church’s music director and his whole family got Covid.  The parents were both vaccinated, as I recall, but one of the kids came home with it, and infected everyone else.  Despite being vaccinated, the music director still got very sick, so they gave him a monoclonal antibody treatment- probably residemivir.

According to him, he felt GREAT after the treatment was completed.  In fact, he felt better 15 minutes after treatment than he did at church a week later when I saw him.  He’s still having ups & downs, but many more ups than downs.


----------



## Cadence

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Went to church in person for the first time since March of 2020 this Sunday.  Among other things, I got this mixed bag of a story:
> 
> Our church’s music director and his whole family got Covid.  The parents were both vaccinated, as I recall, but one of the kids came home with it, and infected everyone else.  Despite being vaccinated, the music director still got very sick, so they gave him a monoclonal antibody treatment- probably residemivir.
> 
> According to him, he felt GREAT after the treatment was completed.  In fact, he felt better 15 minutes after treatment than he did at church a week later when I saw him.  He’s still having ups & downs, but many more ups than downs.



The first week we went back (about a month ago) almost everyone was masked.  The second week it was odd -- there were about a dozen individuals/couples/families that weren't... but as mass went on 2/3rds or so of them gradually masked up. I'm kind of wondering if the priest was staring them down or something, because otherwise I couldn't tell why they changed.

The church my son's old cub-scout pack met at had the pastor and his wife both pretty sick for a while (I think they both recovered).  The one for my son's current boy scout troop had similarly.  The former church has a daycare center and so masks are enforced in parts of the building/parts are closed off.  For the later, some members were grousing about not being able to do more things just minutes after saying how the pastor was sick.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

New research cited by the CDC concldes both vaccine-induced and exposure-induced immunity to COVID last at least 6 months, but that vaccines boost the immune system more overall.









						CDC finds immunity from vaccines is more consistent than from infection, but both last at least six months
					

It's a question that scientists have been trying to answer since the start of the pandemic, one that is central to the rancorous political debates over coronavirus vaccine policies: How much immunity does someone have after recovering from a coronavirus infection, and how does it compare with...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## MoonSong

Dannyalcatraz said:


> New research cited by the CDC concldes both vaccine-induced and exposure-induced immunity to COVID last at least 6 months, but that vaccines boost the immune system more overall.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CDC finds immunity from vaccines is more consistent than from infection, but both last at least six months
> 
> 
> It's a question that scientists have been trying to answer since the start of the pandemic, one that is central to the rancorous political debates over coronavirus vaccine policies: How much immunity does someone have after recovering from a coronavirus infection, and how does it compare with...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



I hope it is the case. My Dad was hospitalized yesterday -turns out he needs a minor surgery, now when I say minor I mean it can be done via laparoscopy, but it risk complications if this isn't done soon enough- and it worries me that he could get exposed to Covid -along with everything else you can catch while in the hospital-. At least I can be less worried since he has had both doses of AZ already.  But seriously, I'm worried they could delay the surgery too much. Earlier this year my cousin died because of complications caused by a delayed surgery. Because she didn't get the surgery on time -due to Covid patients keeping beds and resources tied-, she developed complications, was on a coma for a while and seemed to be recovering when her heart just gave up.

At least we are in "Green" which means few beds have Covid patients, and hopefully they won't delay the surgery too much. We'll know later today if they will schedule as an emergency procedure or if they will schedule it as a regular surgery.


----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> Yes.  They also note that this process can take years - it is essentially generational.



like, five, ten, twenty years? More? A large enough number to not mean much to our short attention spans?


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> The father of modern Quality Assurance was  Dr. William Edwards Deming.  He was an engineer and statistician, and the understanding of the impact of many of our mistaken polices are grounded in his work.
> 
> One rule he found to hold runs as follows:  Any system to do work has some maximum normal capacity.  But, if you regularly run a system at above about 80% of its maximum capacity, the system will degrade to the point where its new maximum is _below_ that 80%.  And it turns out this holds no matter what the systems is built from - machines or people.
> 
> The inability to take sick days is an example of this.  Since everyone else is working at 100% capacity, nobody has slack time to pick up your work, and you become a bottleneck if you aren't present.
> 
> The problem is that managers and executives don't usually read Deming.




Or alternatively, can't internalize it enough to effect their decision-making.  Its abundantly clear there's a strong mimetic element in business that finds slack in employee usage just intolerable, no matter how much they intellectually know its necessary.


----------



## Istbor

AcererakTriple6 said:


> That's definitely a major part of it, but I know people that still send their sick children to school even when they're old enough to stay home by themselves.



Probably because their parents made them do it when they were young. We really have a habit of, "Well I did it when I was a kid, and look how I turned out!" Or, "That's how it has always been done."


----------



## Mirtek

J.Quondam said:


> A vaccine doesn't prevent someone from "catching the germ."



That's also not what he said. It doesn't need to prevent you from ever catching the germ to do enough for you to no longer have to walk on eggshells.

If the vaccine is decreasing the chance to get it enough coupled with when this fails also enough decreasing the chance that it will get serious , then there's no reason to be worried to play with your un-vaccinated friends. 

The remaining danger they potentially mean to you is then just a random everyday risk of life then and risk to stay away from them. Might as well stay away from playing with them because you might fall from the tree that you try to climb together

If it's still so bad that you have to be warry around your un-vaccinated friends, then the combined effect of making it less likely (not need to become impossible) to catch it coupled with making it less likely (again no one asks for making it impossible) to get seriously sick, are obviously not yet big enough


----------



## Mirtek

AcererakTriple6 said:


> Reminds me of a What If? about trying to eradicate the common cold by just isolating everyone from each other for a few weeks. (I couldn't find it on his site, but this is the basic premise.)



That got me interested, I like to read XKCD. Google actually quickly brings it up. However it's not on their website but was only in one of their books. Since the link leads to a scan of 8 pages from the book on Imgur, I am not sure it's something that should be posted here.

Just google "what if xkcd common cold" and you should get directly to Imgur or maybe to a 2 year old reddit thread that then has the link to Imgur.

For those who just want the end result of XKCDs musing (which included consulting experts from the university of Queensland) is that no, it would not work. Total distancing for ~10 days should be enough to completely eliminate it in all humans with a normal immune system, but it would survive in humans with weakened immune systems (can apparently survice for years in peoples with particular weak immune systems, e.g. those dependent on supressing their immune systems after having received transplants) and from them it would once again sweep through humanity


----------



## J.Quondam

Mirtek said:


> That's also not what he said. It doesn't need to prevent you from ever catching the germ to do enough for you to no longer have to walk on eggshells.
> 
> If the vaccine is decreasing the chance to get it enough coupled with when this fails also enough decreasing the chance that it will get serious , then there's no reason to be worried to play with your un-vaccinated friends.
> 
> The remaining danger they potentially mean to you is then just a random everyday risk of life then and risk to stay away from them. Might as well stay away from playing with them because you might fall from the tree that you try to climb together
> 
> If it's still so bad that you have to be warry around your un-vaccinated friends, then the combined effect of making it less likely (not need to become impossible) to catch it coupled with making it less likely (again no one asks for making it impossible) to get seriously sick, are obviously not yet big enough



_Most_ people aren't going to get very sick from it, if at all, not even infected unvaxxed people. But that's not the point. 
The point is that infection goes both ways. One can and should be as concerned about giving the disease as getting it, vaxxed or not.
It's just common courtesy and consideration of others' well-being. That's the difference between being a civilized human being and being a selfish one.


----------



## Mirtek

J.Quondam said:


> Infection goes both ways. One can and should be as concerned about giving the disease as getting it, vaxxed or not.
> It's just common courtesy and consideration of others' well-being. That's the difference between being a civilized human being and being a selfish one.



Yes, but that's the choice of the friends who decided they want to be un-vaccinated. If they decided that they are fine to live with the risk, I may voice my concern once, but at the end of the day respect their choice.

If they decide they are not afraid to meet with me despite them being un-vaccinated and the high enough security of the vaccination makes me comfortable to meet with them despite them being un-vaccinated, then I see no reason not to meet with them.

I would definately not be like "I am confident enough in my safety due to the vaccination, but I am now going to protect you from yourself because I do not accept your acceptance of the risk of being un-vaccinated"

The spouse of a good childhood friend is un-vaccinated by choice. Didn't stop us from having a wine tasting last Saturday. I also have a co-worker who is not vaccinated, since we are not allowed to just all sit together at lunch at work, we just go eat together outside.

Statistically there are probably even more people in my circle which are not vaccinated, I just only happen to know it for sure of these two. I am not afraid of either of them or the unknown others.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well death toll here is still very low. Most of the ones requiring hospital care are unvaccinated. 

  Big difference is age. They vaccinated the older ones first and the older groups have some of the highest vaccine rates in the country (beaten by Asians maybe?). 

 Basically they're trying to buy time to get vaccinated rates up around 90%. 
 Around 2-5% don't get a second shot for various reasons.


----------



## J.Quondam

Mirtek said:


> Yes, but that's the choice of the friends who decided they want to be un-vaccinated. If they decided that they are fine to live with the risk, I may voice my concern once, but at the end of the day respect their choice.
> 
> If they decide they are not afraid to meet with me despite them being un-vaccinated and the high enough security of the vaccination makes me comfortable to meet with them despite them being un-vaccinated, then I see no reason not to meet with them.
> 
> I would definately not be like "I am confident enough in my safety due to the vaccination, but I am now going to protect you from yourself because I do not accept your acceptance of the risk of being un-vaccinated"



Ah, now I understand that you're talking specifically about the context of a gaming group. I missed that before. 
Of course, let people game with whomever they want, I guess. There's no accounting for taste, after all.  

As for me, though, I will not game with antivaxxers. I'm done with their willful ignorance and arrogance. If that means I don't get to play, so be it.*  No gaming is better than gaming with @#&%#s.

_* I currently live in rural Texas, so yes, i'm pretty lonely. _


----------



## Zardnaar

I suspect 2 of my group don't want the vaccine for whatever reason. They haven't directly said. 

 One left though for a new job (best player as well). 

It's a moot point anyway as the campaign is defunct atm. I'll probably advertise for some new players vaccines required.


----------



## Cadence

Got my booster today.  There were a bunch of appointments available for 1st, 2nd, or 3rd shot.  

Guy in front of me somewhere else was joking how he went into a grocery store with a Zorro mask on and laughed at the people who were upset.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Got my booster today.  There were a bunch of appointments available for 1st, 2nd, or 3rd shot.
> 
> Guy in front of me somewhere else was joking how he went into a grocery store with a Zorro mask on and laughed at the people who were upset.




 That's kinda funny. 

 I've been thinking of a Mandalorian costume or the snake armor costume from Assassin's Creed Odyssey as you can wear a mask under them.


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> like, five, ten, twenty years? More? A large enough number to not mean much to our short attention spans?




Not specifically known.  We have some measure on how long protection against SARS-COV-2 infection in general lasts.  We are less sure how long protection against very serious disease lasts, and how repeated vaccination and/or infection extend that.  And it is that latter protection that turns covid-19 from a thing that kills 5 million worldwide in under 2 years, into more like a common cold.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Not specifically known.  We have some measure on how long protection against SARS-COV-2 infection in general lasts.  We are less sure how long protection against very serious disease lasts, and how repeated vaccination and/or infection extend that.  And it is that latter protection that turns covid-19 from a thing that kills 5 million worldwide in under 2 years, into more like a common cold.



…in no small part because human behavior is the big X factor.

The longer C19 vaccination gets politicized, the longer it will take to reach “annual nuisance”  levels.

Ditto the rate at which the world’s poorest countries are able to vaccinate their populations, which pretty much requires the richer ones to lend a helping hand. 

In both cases, “enlightened self-interest” would be a positive thing, but alas, it’s also a bit too rare.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> …in no small part because human behavior is the big X factor.
> 
> The longer C19 vaccination gets politicized, the longer it will take to reach “annual nuisance”  levels.
> 
> Ditto the rate at which the world’s poorest countries are able to vaccinate their populations, which pretty much requires the richer ones to lend a helping hand.
> 
> In both cases, “enlightened self-interest” would be a positive thing, but alas, it’s also a bit too rare.




 My theory is those countries volunteering to be a petri dish might end up doing the world a favour. Some delta variant hopefully mutate to something less deadly.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> That's kinda funny.
> 
> I've been thinking of a Mandalorian costume or the snake armor costume from Assassin's Creed Odyssey as you can wear a mask under them.



I went for "Steampunk Bad Guy."


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> I went for "Steampunk Bad Guy."




 Could also pass as S&M gimp


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Could also pass as S&M gimp



You're not the first to say that


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> In both cases, “enlightened self-interest” would be a positive thing, but alas, it’s also a bit too rare.




Yeah.  It comes down to how humans suck at risk assessment.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> My theory is those countries volunteering to be a petri dish might end up doing the world a favour. Some delta variant hopefully mutate to something less deadly.



It has to be less deadly, more virulent, _and_ confer immunity against other strains.

The reason why Delta is displacing other strains is not because they mutated into Delta.  It is because Delta is out-competing them.  The other strains are being beat back by NPI and vaccination and the people they try to infect already being infected by Delta.

Non-Delta level strains are completely crippled by the vaccine; almost nobody develops symptoms and they spread it really poorly.  Delta is only slowed down by the vaccines.

---

Hockey league in province for elderly had a massive outbreak including at least one death.  Everyone was vaccinated.

Heavy breathing in cold arena without external air exchange and filtering.  It wasn't just people who played against each other, the entire league caught it.

There is currently a battle in the infection control branch of medicine.

On one hand, there is the droplet and fomite side.  These are the people who say "stay 2 m apart", "use plexiglass barriers", "wash hands and surfaces frequently".

On the other, aerosol.  These are the people who say "interact outdoors", "be well ventilated", "wear masks, n95 or medical grade ideally", "install air filters".

The fomite side has the advantage of being easier to do.  Fixing ventilation problems is hard in legacy buildings.  The problem is that it looks like they are wrong.

The belief that respiratory illness spreads via ballistic droplets and fomites, and only rarely via airborn transmission, looks like a 50+ year old error caused by the fact that TB requires 5 nm particles to reach the bottom of your lungs and infect people.  Particles larger than 5 nm get caught in the upper respiratory tract.

And while the work showed that particles up to 100 nm where reasonably well airborn, that 5 nm limit -- which tells you what you need to filter out to stop TB from spreading -- got picked up in the literature, and it became dogma that "airborn transmission occurs with 5 nm and under particles", instead of "airborn transmission of TB occurs with 5 nm and under particles".

Covid 19 5 - 100 nm particles (of saliva) can stay airborn for quite a long time, and it appears that they are the primary method of transmission.  To prevent transmission, you need to ventilate or filter the particles out of the air, and wear masks to keep them out of people's upper respiratory tract.  Have a room without air exchange, and the infectious particles will float right around a plexiglass shield, and far further than 2 m.

Buy HEPA filter systems.  Or make your own; there are some really cool custom builds that involve a box fan, some tubing, and cheap filter material.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> That's kinda funny.
> 
> I've been thinking of a Mandalorian costume or the snake armor costume from Assassin's Creed Odyssey as you can wear a mask under them.



I think he did it because the Zorro mask covers the eyes but not the nostrils or mouth. 

A theme mask that did cover the full face would definitely be amusing.


----------



## Rabulias

Zardnaar said:


> I've been thinking of a Mandalorian costume or the snake armor costume from Assassin's Creed Odyssey as you can wear a mask under them.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> It has to be less deadly, more virulent, _and_ confer immunity against other strains.
> 
> The reason why Delta is displacing other strains is not because they mutated into Delta.  It is because Delta is out-competing them.  The other strains are being beat back by NPI and vaccination and the people they try to infect already being infected by Delta.
> 
> Non-Delta level strains are completely crippled by the vaccine; almost nobody develops symptoms and they spread it really poorly.  Delta is only slowed down by the vaccines.




This is put in a way that may be misleading.  

Delta wins because when other strains bring a squad, Delta brings a batallion.  Delta simply out-breeds other strains, and your immune system gets swamped by sheer dose.



NotAYakk said:


> On one hand, there is the droplet and fomite side.  These are the people who say "stay 2 m apart", "use plexiglass barriers", "wash hands and surfaces frequently".
> 
> On the other, aerosol.  These are the people who say "interact outdoors", "be well ventilated", "wear masks, n95 or medical grade ideally", "install air filters".




I don't believe these are accurate descriptions.



NotAYakk said:


> The belief that respiratory illness spreads via ballistic droplets and fomites, and only rarely via airborn transmission, looks like a 50+ year old error caused by the fact that TB requires 5 nm particles to reach the bottom of your lungs and infect people.  Particles larger than 5 nm get caught in the upper respiratory tract.




Okay, I'm sorry, but you seem to making a bit of a hash of terms.

"Droplet" is anything over about 5 micrometers.  "Aerosol" is just a small droplet (under about 50 micrometers).  The effective difference between "droplet" transmission and "aerosol" in this context is the length of time the drops stay in the air.  Any droplet over 100 micrometers falls out of the air in seconds.  From there, the smaller the drop, the longer the hang time.  

The vast majority of SARS-COV-2 transmission _is by droplet_.  The pattern of spread we see in Covid-19 in the population is not consistent with aerosol droplets that stay in the air for more than about a half an hour.   And, the vast majority of cases are still from folks you were in close immediate contact with - you are both present and within about 6 feet of each other.




NotAYakk said:


> Covid 19 5 - 100 nm particles (of saliva) can stay airborn for quite a long time




"Quite a long time," is relative, and too vague to be useful.  The empirical relevant period for covid-19 seems to typically be seconds to half an hour.  If Joe has covid, and you enter the space they were in two hours before, your chances of getting sick from Joe are miniscule. 

One caveat - this does not hold for spaces that have been permeated with the stuff.  If Joe's been in his living room coughing all day, you want to wait substantially longer before you treat that space as safe.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> Okay, I'm sorry, but you seem to making a bit of a hash of terms.
> 
> "Droplet" is anything over about 5 micrometers.  "Aerosol" is just a small droplet (under about 50 micrometers).  The effective difference between "droplet" transmission and "aerosol" in this context is the length of time the drops stay in the air.  Any droplet over 100 micrometers falls out of the air in seconds.  From there, the smaller the drop, the longer the hang time.
> 
> The vast majority of SARS-COV-2 transmission _is by droplet_.  The pattern of spread we see in Covid-19 in the population is not consistent with aerosol droplets that stay in the air for more than about a half an hour.   And, the vast majority of cases are still from folks you were in close immediate contact with - you are both present and within about 6 feet of each other.




There was a show earlier this year (I thought on the BBC world service) about how artificial and unhelpful the hard cutoffs for droplet/aerosol/airborne/etc... are.  I can't find the original though :-(









						For Scientists Who Study Virus Transmission, 2020 Was A Watershed Year
					

When Linsey Marr looks back at the beginning of 2020, what strikes her is how few people in the world really understood how viruses can travel through the air.




					www.kuow.org


----------



## Eltab

I just found a book at my local Public Library: _Uncontrolled Spread_ by Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former FDA Commissioner.

Only a chapter in.  So far his thesis is that bureaucratic inertia was at the root of the COVID failure.  As to personalities, he is an equal-opportunity critic.


----------



## Zardnaar

In happier news. In lockdown found a stray cat. Looked after him for a bit and sister in law adopted him. 



 Not 100% sure he might be happy.

 Educated guess we'll be opening up for Christmas regardless of the numbers. 





__





						Labour support down and Government Confidence Rating drops to lowest since Jacinda Ardern became PM in 2017 - Roy Morgan Research
					






					www.roymorgan.com
				




 Aucklands spent something like 21 weeks (or more) off and on in lockdown. People are over it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Fine lookin’ kitty!


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Fine lookin’ kitty!




 Yeah he is a photogenic little sod. SIL said "not having a cat in lock down was rough". Their kitteh passed a few months ago aged 17+. 

 Was kind of expecting to be in lockdown around about now.


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> This is put in a way that may be misleading.
> 
> Delta wins because when other strains bring a squad, Delta brings a batallion.  Delta simply out-breeds other strains, and your immune system gets swamped by sheer dose.
> 
> 
> 
> I don't believe these are accurate descriptions.
> 
> 
> 
> Okay, I'm sorry, but you seem to making a bit of a hash of terms.
> 
> "Droplet" is anything over about 5 micrometers.  "Aerosol" is just a small droplet (under about 50 micrometers).  The effective difference between "droplet" transmission and "aerosol" in this context is the length of time the drops stay in the air.  Any droplet over 100 micrometers falls out of the air in seconds.  From there, the smaller the drop, the longer the hang time.
> 
> The vast majority of SARS-COV-2 transmission _is by droplet_.  The pattern of spread we see in Covid-19 in the population is not consistent with aerosol droplets that stay in the air for more than about a half an hour.   And, the vast majority of cases are still from folks you were in close immediate contact with - you are both present and within about 6 feet of each other.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> "Quite a long time," is relative, and too vague to be useful.  The empirical relevant period for covid-19 seems to typically be seconds to half an hour.  If Joe has covid, and you enter the space they were in two hours before, your chances of getting sick from Joe are miniscule.
> 
> One caveat - this does not hold for spaces that have been permeated with the stuff.  If Joe's been in his living room coughing all day, you want to wait substantially longer before you treat that space as safe.



All this discussion about the time a space remains contagious makes me utter a bitter hysterical laughter. They are in the process of reopening schools, and the first thing they say is "We are taking measures! We are thoroughly cleansing all surfaces!" as if the real danger of infection was a building that has been closed for close to two years!


----------



## Umbran

MoonSong said:


> All this discussion about the time a space remains contagious makes me utter a bitter hysterical laughter. They are in the process of reopening schools, and the first thing they say is "We are taking measures! We are thoroughly cleansing all surfaces!" as if the real danger of infection was a building that has been closed for close to two years!




Security theater is a thing.  My point about when a space becomes safe is on the order of hours to days, not weeks and more.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> Security theater is a thing.  My point about when a space becomes safe is on the order of hours to days, not weeks and more.



My favorite was at the height of it here when the unmasked folks at the grocery store would meticulously wipe down the handles on the carts.


----------



## J.Quondam

Cadence said:


> My favorite was at the height of it here when the unmasked folks at the grocery store would meticulously wipe down the handles on the carts.



This time a year ago, a big part of my job was to oversee "decontamination" of public sites our group had temporarily occupied. It mainly consisted of having a contractor walk around the space with a misting machine to spray a  weak bleach solution on everything-- usually several days after we'd used the space and it had already opened back up.  

But to be fair, it _*was*_ a very fancy misting machine

I'm sure someone's brother-in-law made an absolute killing off selling that health security theater to us.


----------



## MoonSong

Cadence said:


> My favorite was at the height of it here when the unmasked folks at the grocery store would meticulously wipe down the handles on the carts.



At least it accomplishes something. I mean supermarket carts never get washed or cleaned?

As for other security theater, temperature controls. The thermometer does little to no help in detecting cases. Ok, it can filter some cases, but a negligible amount. It got even worse with the stupid internet rumors about the thermometer hurting the brain or stuff. Since they started, people started taking the reading on the wrist instead of the head or neck. Which makes a borderline useless measure even more useless. You can very easily manipulate the temperature in your hand. It is already 0.1-0.2 degrees colder than your head, more so if you just washed your hands. Security theater...


----------



## Hussar

MoonSong said:


> At least it accomplishes something. I mean supermarket carts never get washed or cleaned?
> 
> As for other security theater, temperature controls. The thermometer does little to no help in detecting cases. Ok, it can filter some cases, but a negligible amount. It got even worse with the stupid internet rumors about the thermometer hurting the brain or stuff. Since they started, people started taking the reading on the wrist instead of the head or neck. Which makes a borderline useless measure even more useless. You can very easily manipulate the temperature in your hand. It is already 0.1-0.2 degrees colder than your head, more so if you just washed your hands. Security theater...



Wait, what?

You don't have staff cleaning off shopping carts?  Seriously?  Good grief.  Please tell me you at least have alcohol spritzers at the door for your hands.

I wipe down every surface in my school after every class with an alcohol wipe.  My school's never been so clean.


----------



## MoonSong

Hussar said:


> Wait, what?
> 
> You don't have staff cleaning off shopping carts?  Seriously?  Good grief.  Please tell me you at least have alcohol spritzers at the door for your hands.
> 
> I wipe down every surface in my school after every class with an alcohol wipe.  My school's never been so clean.




I mean, they get cleaned now! but I don't think they were ever cleaned at any point before March last year...


----------



## Eltab

MoonSong said:


> people started taking the reading on the wrist instead of the head or neck. ... You can very easily manipulate the temperature in your hand. It is already 0.1-0.2 degrees colder than your head, more so if you just washed your hands.



Or if you have low blood pressure and your hands are cold all the time anyway.

Good thing nobody is trying to aim a temperature scanner at my naturally near-freezing-cold feet...


----------



## Umbran

Meanwhile, in positive news.

Pfizer is seeing good results in testing of a new anti-viral drug (named "Paxlovid"), reducing the likelihood of hospitalization or death from covid-19 by 89% in patients in high risk groups. It shows good results when administered within 5 days of showing symptoms, which is extremely promising*.

Pfizer says that they are going to apply for emergency use authorization.

For the curious, the drug is a protease inhibitor.  Initially developed for HIV and Hepatitis C treatment, a protease inhibitor... inhibits proteases.  A protease is an enzyme that cuts proteins apart - in replication, many viruses make large proteins that get cut apart before assembly into a new virus.  So, this drug prevents new viruses from being assembled, by stopping the creation of some of the necessary parts.

This drug started its life in HIV treatment.  Nearly 20 years ago, in the SARS epidemic, Pfizer began modifying it into a new drug that would work against coronaviruses.  SARS died out too quickly to bring the drug to market, but Pfizer didn't forget about it, and went back to work when covid-19 reared its head.









						Pfizer says its COVID-19 pill cuts disease's worst risks by 89%
					

Based on the strength of the trial's results, Pfizer says it will ask the FDA for emergency use authorization rather than enroll more people for clinical trials.




					www.wbur.org
				





*Some antivirals are only effective if administered very early in the course of an infection - sometimes, by the time a person feels symptoms and gets tested, it is too late to use them.  Thankfully, this seems to not be the case here.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’m yoinking that post virtually unchanged to share with others elsewhere.  Thanks!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Also saw the news that _another_ company- Merck, as I recall- has developed its own anti-viral pill to fight COVID, possibly already authorized for emergency use in the UK.  Early results show it reduced the chances of a COVID-infected person developing serious symptoms *89%*.  That’s _stunningly_ good.

While it can’t stop infections- it’s a therapeutic (not preventative) pharmacological product- it could SERIOUSLY cut the death rate and risks of long-term side effects.  For rural areas, urban blighted areas, developing nations, and other places like refugee camps or post-disaster regions, that might mean the difference between manageable outbreaks and being overwhelmed.


----------



## Zardnaar

206 cases today woot. Covid for Christmas!!!. First time 200+ cases.









						Covid-19 update: 206 new community cases reported today
					

There have been a record 206 new community cases of Covid-19 reported in New Zealand today, as the total number of vaccinations in this country tops 7 million.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Decided to get in on the anti vax scam erm market. My cats can make healing crystals. They smell a bit but that fades over a few days. That just means they're working.  

 Hey if they're willing to take invermectin.....


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> 206 cases today woot. Covid for Christmas!!!. First time 200+ cases.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19 update: 206 new community cases reported today
> 
> 
> There have been a record 206 new community cases of Covid-19 reported in New Zealand today, as the total number of vaccinations in this country tops 7 million.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Decided to get in on the anti vax scam erm market. My cats can make healing crystals. They smell a bit but that fades over a few days. That just means they're working.
> 
> Hey if they're willing to take invermectin.....



Hey, that's the same number of cases that Japan had yesterday.  

They are finally opening the airports to those with work visas, but, still no tourists.  I can leave the country and come back though now.  That's good.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Hey, that's the same number of cases that Japan had yesterday.
> 
> They are finally opening the airports to those with work visas, but, still no tourists.  I can leave the country and come back though now.  That's good.




 I suspect we will go same way as Australia. Climb up to 1000+ hopefully fall back. Think there's been 2 more deaths probably Covid related with almost 50% more cases. 

 Difference from last year seems to be age group of the mostly unvaccinated getting sick. It's a lit lower.


----------



## Zardnaar

All District Health Boards in Auckland have hit 90% first vaccination rates. 









						Counties Manukau pushes all of Auckland over 90% first vaccinations
					

Counties Manukau DHB has hit a 90 percent target for Covid-19 vaccine first doses, bringing all of Tāmaki Makaurau over the line for first doses.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




90% second doses is the magic number before restrictions are eased. 

 The 3 DHBs 1st/2nd doses.

Auckland 95%/87%
Waitemata 92%/83%
Counties Manukau 90%/80%

 20% was the rate in August (vaccine availability issues).

 Deaths are up to 31cases total 7400. 









						New Zealand COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

New Zealand Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




 23 deaths were in the 1st outbreak so with triple the cases since then 8 deaths. 

 It's like vaccines work or something. Wonder if my Itteh Bitteh Kitteh "healing crystals" would be popular with that final 5-10%.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Last night was a personal milestone of sorts: Mom went to a social gathering outside of the house for the first time since Feb. 2020.  She’s been to medical appointments and the grocery, of course, but this is the first time she’s been out and attending a gathering for a few hours.

The occasion that got her out was a 50th wedding anniversary & vow renewal celebration of some friends of ours.  Even though SHE RSVPed for the family, I was worried she might back out at the last minute or have a panic attack because she’s balked at going back to in-person church services or even into restaurants (for takeout) as recently as last week.

Sooooo…she may have turned the corner on this, at last.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Hmmm.... one of my employee's roommate has been diagnosed with covid.

Everyone (including the roommate) is double-vaxxed. I'd worry about it less if the employee hadn't been suggesting that she felt she was "coming down with something" on Friday. She's been tested, but we haven't heard back quite yet. If she's positive, I guess we ALL go get tested.

My little comic and game store only has 5 employees. All of us (or even most of us) having to isolate will be a serious blow to business.

I'm feeling a little low-energy and have a little tickle in my throat, but I'm hoping that's all pychosomatic from stress. We'll see, I guess.


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> I'm feeling a little low-energy and have a little tickle in my throat, but I'm hoping that's all pychosomatic from stress. We'll see, I guess.




I'll keep fingers crossed for you that there's nothing serious for you and your folks.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> I'll keep fingers crossed for you that there's nothing serious for you and your folks.



Thank you. She tested negative, thank God. She's going to stay at her mom's while her roommate is in isolation. We always wear masks and don't tend to stand anywhere near each other, so we should all be good.


----------



## GreyLord

FitzTheRuke said:


> Thank you. She tested negative, thank God. She's going to stay at her mom's while her roommate is in isolation. We always wear masks and don't tend to stand anywhere near each other, so we should all be good.




It's funny, when you think you may be sick you start to think you are feeling sick...even if you really aren't sometimes.

Of course, other times you really are sick.  It's a weird dynamic.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

GreyLord said:


> It's funny, when you think you may be sick you start to think you are feeling sick...even if you really aren't sometimes.
> 
> Of course, other times you really are sick.  It's a weird dynamic.



Yep. It's the Nocebo Effect (opposite of the Placebo Effect) that causes that.


----------



## Mirtek

Zardnaar said:


> 90% second doses is the magic number before restrictions are eased.



Denmark just revoked their freedom day, which they announced after 86% of the eglible population was vaccinated. The freedom lasted ~2 month and now they are at a infektion rate of 263/100k. I fear 90% won't make much of a difference

In Germany it's a mess right now. Some states are in full panic mode and preparing 2G (vaccinated or recovered) for just about everything beyond going to work, while mine just revoked any and all covid meassures for outside events. No testing, no contact tracing, no masks and no distancing required anymore. 

To be fair it was already decided weeks ago that the restrictions would fall today, the situation back then was different. I am still suprised they went through with it, I was fully expecting a last minute announcement that the restrictions would not be lifted as planned.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> Denmark just revoked their freedom day, which they announced after 86% of the eglible population was vaccinated. The freedom lasted ~2 month and now they are at a infektion rate of 263/100k. I fear 90% won't make much of a difference
> 
> In Germany it's a mess right now. Some states are in full panic mode and preparing 2G (vaccinated or recovered) for just about everything beyond going to work, while mine just revoked any and all covid meassures for outside events. No testing, no contact tracing, no masks and no distancing required anymore.
> 
> To be fair it was already decided weeks ago that the restrictions would fall today, the situation back then was different. I am still suprised they went through with it, I was fully expecting a last minute announcement that the restrictions would not be lifted as planned.




 The reason is people stopped complying anyway. 

 They had to many cases of unknown origin so may as well open up.

 They've indicated Aucklanders going to  be allowed to travel regardless by Christmas/new years.

 It's got nothing to do with polling at all.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Covid vaccine holdouts are caving to mandates — then scrambling to 'undo' their shots
					

In a TikTok video that has garnered hundreds of thousands of views, Dr.




					www.yahoo.com
				




_deep sigh_


----------



## Umbran

Meanwhile, in news we don't need, SARS-COV-2 is showing up in white tailed deer, in large numbers.

It doesn't appear to harm the deer - they don't get sick from it.  However, they may serve as carriers.  If they can pass it back to humans (which is not yet proven) then they may serve as a reservoir such that eradication in North America becomes nigh impossible.









						How SARS-CoV-2 in American deer could alter the course of the global pandemic
					

Scientists have evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is circulating in white-tailed deer in the U.S. They say the findings could essentially dash any hopes of eliminating the virus in the U.S. — and the world.




					www.wbur.org


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Covid vaccine holdouts are caving to mandates — then scrambling to 'undo' their shots
> 
> 
> In a TikTok video that has garnered hundreds of thousands of views, Dr.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _deep sigh_



I'd like to think that somewhere in this multiverse, there is a reality where these people are functioning adults. I'm just sad it's not this reality.


----------



## Deset Gled

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Covid vaccine holdouts are caving to mandates — then scrambling to 'undo' their shots
> 
> 
> In a TikTok video that has garnered hundreds of thousands of views, Dr.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _deep sigh_




I heard the best way to "undo" the vaccine was to get directly injected with COVID.  But in order to not get sick, it needs to be a specially engineered, weakened form of the virus.  For best results, my spiritual leader says you should get this shot a couple weeks after your 1st vaccine injection, and probably another one about 9 months later to make sure it takes.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Meanwhile, in news we don't need, SARS-COV-2 is showing up in white tailed deer, in large numbers.
> 
> It doesn't appear to harm the deer - they don't get sick from it.  However, they may serve as carriers.  If they can pass it back to humans (which is not yet proven) then they may serve as a reservoir such that eradication in North America becomes nigh impossible.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How SARS-CoV-2 in American deer could alter the course of the global pandemic
> 
> 
> Scientists have evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is circulating in white-tailed deer in the U.S. They say the findings could essentially dash any hopes of eliminating the virus in the U.S. — and the world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wbur.org



This seems like a cosmic joke: putting a large reservoir of COVID into a critter that will be in relatively close proximity to the folks currently least likely to be vaccinated or agree with the science.

@Umbran, I bet your wife is utterly THRILLED by this,


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> Meanwhile, in news we don't need, SARS-COV-2 is showing up in white tailed deer, in large numbers.
> 
> It doesn't appear to harm the deer - they don't get sick from it.  However, they may serve as carriers.  If they can pass it back to humans (which is not yet proven) then they may serve as a reservoir such that eradication in North America becomes nigh impossible.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How SARS-CoV-2 in American deer could alter the course of the global pandemic
> 
> 
> Scientists have evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is circulating in white-tailed deer in the U.S. They say the findings could essentially dash any hopes of eliminating the virus in the U.S. — and the world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wbur.org



I heard this on NPR the other day. Apparently, in the study during the Winter surge of Covid-19, *80% of the deer* that they tested (which was a fairly small sample group, to be fair) *tested positive for SARS-COV-2* (it says that in the article you linked, but it's something I distinctly remember from when I heard it). If they are carriers, that could be _really_ bad.


----------



## Garthanos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Covid vaccine holdouts are caving to mandates — then scrambling to 'undo' their shots
> 
> 
> In a TikTok video that has garnered hundreds of thousands of views, Dr.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _deep sigh_



That is hilarious...


----------



## Garthanos

Deset Gled said:


> I heard the best way to "undo" the vaccine was to get directly injected with COVID.  But in order to not get sick, it needs to be a specially engineered, weakened form of the virus.



better yet don't do it that way just inject a protein initiation something involving I don't know ribonucleic something or other that has never actually been alive and will only sort of seem to be the virus. That ought to fool the vaccine.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> That is hilarious...




Sure, hilarous, until folks start taking hospital beds because they give themselves full-body borax burns.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Sure, hilarous, until folks start taking hospital beds because they give themselves full-body borax burns.



But it's fab, it must be safe especially if it is "lemon freshened"

People are letting themselves die for their tribalism.
​


----------



## Garthanos

I have reached the laugh or cry stage.


----------



## J.Quondam

Garthanos said:


> I have reached the laugh or cry stage.



Yeah, me too. It's frustrating, but that's pretty much the only option now.


----------



## Zardnaar

Elimination hasn't been an option since about March 2020. 

  I'm going with 2-4 years and it will burn itself out/mutate into something less dangerous and/or kill off all it can.

 Basically like every other virus humanity has dealt with.

 Even if you eliminated it from North America (yeah right) there's places like India still.


----------



## Mirtek

Umbran said:


> such that eradication in North America becomes nigh impossible.



Wait, are you guys on the other side of the pond still holding on to the thought of eradicating it in North America?

No one, really no one in all of Europe still entertains dreams of eradication in Europe being even remotely possible. Everybody agrees that it will become endemic with a couple of hundred - thousand cases per country every season. And that is the best case that everybody is aiming for by pushing vaccinations

Covid is accepted to be here to stay forever


----------



## Umbran

Mirtek said:


> Wait, are you guys on the other side of the pond still holding on to the thought of eradicating it in North America?




One _always_ holds on to hope.


----------



## Zardnaar

Auckland DHB hit 95% first dose and 6000 doses short of 90% double dose. 

 Problem bbeing even with reasonably few cases the hospitals already stretched. 

Auckland DHB first to surpass 95 percent  first doses for eligible population

 Still no cases locally more or waiting for it to arrive.

  And local rent a mob. Three months in lockdown up there. 

Covid-19: Anti-lockdown protesters take to roads for latest action against restrictions


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> One _always_ holds on to hope.




 Ima cynic. Never disappointed. If something goes right you get a pleasant surprise.


----------



## Eltab

Deset Gled said:


> I heard the best way to "undo" the vaccine was to get directly injected with COVID.



... by eating undercooked venison?


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Ima cynic. Never disappointed. If something goes right you get a pleasant surprise.




Sure.  But cynicism (at least, by the modern meaning of that term) rather restricts the ability to fully engage to make things better - cynicism tends towards self-fulfilling prophecy.



Eltab said:


> ... by eating undercooked venison?




"I got rid of the vaccine, but now I have trichinosis.  Totally worth it!"
--someone, somewhere.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Sure.  But cynicism (at least, by the modern meaning of that term) rather restricts the ability to fully engage to make things better - cynicism tends towards self-fulfilling prophecy.
> 
> 
> 
> "I got rid of the vaccine, but now I have trichinosis.  Totally worth it!"
> --someone, somewhere.




 I leanmore towards not making things worse. 

 Seems even that's a tall order these days.


----------



## Hussar

Ok, for those of us who are a bit slower than the rest of the class, why would reservoirs of Covid 19 in deer matter?  It's not like we have much contact with deer, by and large - they aren't going to breathe on us and, while I suppose urine or feces are around, I don't think Covid spreads that way.  If you hunt deer, again, it's not breathing on you, by and large, and, you're going to cook it pretty carefully - certainly enough to kill anything nasty in there.  

So, I'm not following the chain here.

I could see if something like cows could be infected that it would be a huge problem.  But deer?  Is this actually going to matter?


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> I leanmore towards not making things worse.




If that's enough for you, well, that's you.  That isn't enough for me.  I don't think we have the luxury of cynicism.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> If that's enough for you, well, that's you.  That isn't enough for me.  I don't think we have the luxury of cynicism.




 More into what works or what you can achieve. 

 Ideals are a luxury really. No point having ideals without power. 

 And most of the current problems boil down to money and power. 

 Ideals also backfire leading to disillusionment.


----------



## Eltab

Hussar said:


> Ok, for those of us who are a bit slower than the rest of the class, why would reservoirs of Covid 19 in deer matter?  It's not like we have much contact with deer, by and large - they aren't going to breathe on us and, while I suppose urine or feces are around, I don't think Covid spreads that way.  If you hunt deer, again, it's not breathing on you, by and large, and, you're going to cook it pretty carefully - certainly enough to kill anything nasty in there.
> 
> So, I'm not following the chain here.
> 
> I could see if something like cows could be infected that it would be a huge problem.  But deer?  Is this actually going to matter?



Deer keep getting into urban areas and being hit by cars "near the edge of town", not just out in the countryside / deep in a forest.  The chance of exposure to COVID after hitting a deer is currently even smaller than the "struck by lightning" probability range but still a possible event.

Now for the headache questions:
How did the deer get COVID?
Are there other animals it has jumped to?


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> Deer keep getting into urban areas and being hit by cars "near the edge of town", not just out in the countryside / deep in a forest.  The chance of exposure to COVID after hitting a deer is currently even smaller than the "struck by lightning" probability range but still a possible event.
> 
> Now for the headache questions:
> How did the deer get COVID?
> Are there other animals it has jumped to?




 Doesn't really matter with the amount of human spread. Moot point.


----------



## billd91

Hussar said:


> Ok, for those of us who are a bit slower than the rest of the class, why would reservoirs of Covid 19 in deer matter?  It's not like we have much contact with deer, by and large - they aren't going to breathe on us and, while I suppose urine or feces are around, I don't think Covid spreads that way.  If you hunt deer, again, it's not breathing on you, by and large, and, you're going to cook it pretty carefully - certainly enough to kill anything nasty in there.
> 
> So, I'm not following the chain here.
> 
> I could see if something like cows could be infected that it would be a huge problem.  But deer?  Is this actually going to matter?



If your assumption is correct and we don't have much contact with deer, how are they getting it/did they get it? Clearly, there was some transmission to the deer population before they started spreading it among themselves and that suggests they either got it from contact with humans or some other animal that also got it from humans. And that raises the question can they spread it back via the same route?

It's true, this isn't the same as diseases spread back and forth between humans and domesticated animals - there the contact is much more consistent and frequent. But deer often do come pretty close to environments with people such as in rural communities where members, of course, often travel to more urban environments... 

In any event, having multiple reservoirs of COVID out there in different animal species isn't exactly a thrilling development.


----------



## Mirtek

Eltab said:


> Now for the headache questions:
> How did the deer get COVID?
> Are there other animals it has jumped to?



Didn't some lions or tigers get infected in a zoo? So if they can get it, household cats should be able to get it too, shouldn't they?

So maybe from cat to deer?

Also if cats can get it, forget about deer. We'll have our unlimited reservoir right there.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> Didn't some lions or tigers get infected in a zoo? So if they can get it, household cats should be able to get it too, shouldn't they?
> 
> So maybe from cat to deer?
> 
> Also if cats can get it, forget about deer. We'll have our unlimited reservoir right there.




 Mirtek how reliable is DW news? I've been watching that on YouTube about your country and Covid.


----------



## Mirtek

Zardnaar said:


> Mirtek how reliable is DW news? I've been watching that on YouTube about your country and Covid.



I don't really watch DW, but I would rate it as very reliable. It's the channel our public broadcasting made to inform viewers from foreign countries and the public broadcasting in Germany is generally seen as the most reliable news you can get.

We do have private stations, but none of their news comes even close to the viewer rates of the news on public broadcasting.

They're the reason why prime time TV in Germany starts at 20:15, because 20:00 - 20:15 is time of the Tagesschau and no channel dares to try to compete with that.

A short summary of Germany at the moment: It's a complete s##tshow. Infections rates are the highest we ever had and vaccinated and anti-vaccination crowds are at each other throats worse than ever before.

We're pretty close to getting a 2G rule (only vaccinated or revovered) for just about everything except work and public transport (to get to work) and even there 3G (vaccinated, recovered or negatively tested within the last 24h) seems to not be far off.

Currently christmas markets are still officially allowed, but I fully expect them to be officially cancelled before ever having the chance to open. Many local organizers are already cancelling on their own,  trying to get of of existing contracts and avoid making any new contracts before they'll be forced to cancell anything anyway.

My state, RLP, actually entered the lastest round of relaxing restrictions last Monday. Currently there are no requirements anymore for any outside gatherings and events. No masks, no distance, no contract tracing, no testing, nothing at all. Now it was set in motion weeks ago that those new relaxed regulation would take effect on November 8th and back then the situation didn't look nearly as dire as it does now. 

However I was still surprised that they did actually allow the regulation to take effect as planned instead of revoking it at the last minute.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

@Hussar 

There’s actually more deer/human interaction than many people realize.

Besides their incursions into urbanized areas- often lured by feeders- deer are one of the most commonly hunted animals in the USA, both for trophies, as edible game, and in some areas, as pests.  (See urban feeders, above.)

If deer become a significant long term reservoir for COVID, even if it doesn’t quickly mutate in them, they’ll still be in close proximity with humans who- demographically speaking- will more probably be unvaccinated.

But that’s not even the real issue.  As you note, for the most part, we dont get that close to living deer, so the odds of direct deer=>human transmission would be low.  

The thing is, all of the coronaviruses known to affect humans have had their “origins” traced back to reservoirs in rats or bats (hence the reason for the lab in Wuhan).  But most of those aren’t believed to be direct zoonotic transmissions from rats/bats to humans, but rather via other (often unidentified) animals acting as vectors.

So if deer become a significant COVID reservoir, the risk of other animals that may interact with them carrying it to US increases greatly. Which means even if we managed to knock it down to virtually untraceable amounts in humans, there would always be a significant risk of a new outbreaks.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> I don't really watch DW, but I would rate it as very reliable. It's the channel our public broadcasting made to inform viewers from foreign countries and the public broadcasting in Germany is generally seen as the most reliable news you can get.
> 
> We do have private stations, but none of their news comes even close to the viewer rates of the news on public broadcasting.
> 
> They're the reason why prime time TV in Germany starts at 20:15, because 20:00 - 20:15 is time of the Tagesschau and no channel dares to try to compete with that.
> 
> A short summary of Germany at the moment: It's a complete s##tshow. Infections rates are the highest we ever had and vaccinated and anti-vaccination crowds are at each other throats worse than ever before.
> 
> We're pretty close to getting a 2G rule (only vaccinated or revovered) for just about everything except work and public transport (to get to work) and even there 3G (vaccinated, recovered or negatively tested within the last 24h) seems to not be far off.
> 
> Currently christmas markets are still officially allowed, but I fully expect them to be officially cancelled before ever having the chance to open. Many local organizers are already cancelling on their own,  trying to get of of existing contracts and avoid making any new contracts before they'll be forced to cancell anything anyway.
> 
> My state, RLP, actually entered the lastest round of relaxing restrictions last Monday. Currently there are no requirements anymore for any outside gatherings and events. No masks, no distance, no contract tracing, no testing, nothing at all. Now it was set in motion weeks ago that those new relaxed regulation would take effect on November 8th and back then the situation didn't look nearly as dire as it does now.
> 
> However I was still surprised that they did actually allow the regulation to take effect as planned instead of revoking it at the last minute.




 Yeah a few people here don't seem to believe me when I say Europe's having issues. 

 Housing crisis plus inflation but it's happening world wide although the housing crisis is the worst here. 

 Also been watching DW documentaries. I know what's happening Covid related in Romania but idk who the captain of the all blacks is (NZ rugby team).

 Things are t as bad here in a lot of ways but ideas from certain areas of the world eg between Canada and Mexico arrive here on social media.

 Couple of white trash stoner types I know from high school have gone down the anti vax rabit hole. 30 odd years of smoking pot and they weren't that bright back in 94.


----------



## Hussar

Ok. That makes sense. I can see that. Deer is sick passes to something else that passes to humans.


----------



## Zardnaar

Deer introduced pest here. Can't shoot em fast enough. Venison pie and burgers are a thing go figure.


----------



## Ryujin

Urban exposure to deer, while not really usual, does in fact happen. Here are a couple of incidents in the Toronto area. I couldn't find the one in which a full grown deer was Tazered by police within view of the university at which I work.









						Caught on camera: Deer runs through window of downtown Oshawa bar
					

Surveillance camera footage shows the moment a deer ran straight into a downtown Oshawa bar.



					toronto.ctvnews.ca
				








__





						CityNews
					






					toronto.citynews.ca
				












						Doe-eyed deer are being spotted in random places all over Toronto
					

It may be the biggest city in Canada, but Toronto's connections to nature are never far away, and some residents have been getting first-hand encou...




					www.blogto.com


----------



## Umbran

Mirtek said:


> Didn't some lions or tigers get infected in a zoo? So if they can get it, household cats should be able to get it too, shouldn't they?
> 
> So maybe from cat to deer?
> 
> Also if cats can get it, forget about deer. We'll have our unlimited reservoir right there.




Note - My wife is a veterinarian, who has been keeping up with such matters.

You speak as if there's "Completely immune" and "catch and pass it easily", and that's not an accurate model at all.

There have been cases where felines of various sorts (and dogs) have become infected with SARS-COV-2.  But they are _exceedingly rare_.  And, as far as I am aware, there are no known cases of housecats getting it where they were not living in the home of someone who had active covid-19.  Transmission from housepet to human is also rare.  

Veterinary medicine has been paying close attention to this - housepets do not comprise a significant pool of virus.


----------



## Umbran

So, about deer...

How do deer get it?  Well, many of the deer in the articles above were _farm-raised _(most deer meat you can buy is not wild hunted, folks!) and so had frequent contact with humans.  And on farms, wild deer do often come by and interact with farmed deer through fences.

Also, wild deer do rummage through human trash - a deer getting into trash loaded with used tissues, and you have possible infection.

A major point to make is that we do not know if these deer can pass it back to humans.  These deer were not tested by nose-swab, so the data does not directly indicate presence in the upper respiratory tract, or what levels it is present there in the deer - the droplet-based transmission we see in human transmission may not be a thing for deer.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> So, about deer...
> 
> How do deer get it?  Well, many of the deer in the articles above were _farm-raised _(most deer meat you can buy is not wild hunted, folks!) and so had frequent contact with humans.  And on farms, wild deer do often come by and interact with farmed deer through fences.
> 
> Also, wild deer do rummage through human trash - a deer getting into trash loaded with used tissues, and you have possible infection.




I'm surprised a lot of "house cats" wouldn't have similar problems, with the large number of them in the states that are let roam the neighborhoods, neighborhoods right next to large feral colonies (often moving from a bowl and one house to a bowl at another).



Umbran said:


> A major point to make is that we do not know if these deer can pass it back to humans.  These deer were not tested by nose-swab, so the data does not directly indicate presence in the upper respiratory tract, or what levels it is present there in the deer - the droplet-based transmission we see in human transmission may not be a thing for deer.



A zoo lost three snow leopards due to complications.  Is there anything about cats that's vastly different from people that a symptomatic one wouldn't have it in their respiratory tract?  (I know little enough of human anatomy let alone cat).









						Three snow leopards at Nebraska zoo die from COVID-19 complications
					

The snow leopards, Ranney, Everest and Makalu, tested positive for COVID after some exhibited symptoms last month.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> I'm surprised a lot of "house cats" wouldn't have similar problems, with the large number of them in the states that are let roam the neighborhoods, neighborhoods right next to large feral colonies (often moving from a bowl and one house to a bowl at another).




Well, yes - this is why your veterinarian vaccinates your animal against things that it is vulnerable to!  This is why, in most of the US, if you have a dog or cat you are legally required to vaccinate it against rabies.

But, dogs and cats just are not terribly vulnerable to SARS-COV-2.  For whatever reason - protein structures, pH, or whatever - cats and dogs rarely catch it.  They just aren't good hosts for the virus.



Cadence said:


> A zoo lost three snow leopards due to complications.  Is there anything about cats that's vastly different from people that a symptomatic one wouldn't have it in their respiratory tract?  (I know little enough of human anatomy let alone cat).




There's loads of things that are different between dogs and cats and humans.  This is why many of the things in your medicine cabinet are toxic to Rover and Fluffy, and why there aren't many diseases your animals can get that they can share with you, and vice versa.


----------



## Zardnaar

Covid why me worry? 





 Wait until I evolve thumbs bwa ha ha. Gonna eat ur eyeballs!!!!


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Gonna eat ur eyeballs!!!!




Nah.  Eyeball-eating is a bird thing - what with those long, narrow beaks.  Cats are more interested in your muscle tissue.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Playing indoor hockey with your eyeballs, OTOH, would be a very cat thing to do.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Nah.  Eyeball-eating is a bird thing - what with those long, narrow beaks.  Cats are more interested in your muscle tissue.





Dannyalcatraz said:


> Playing indoor hockey with your eyeballs, OTOH, would be a very cat thing to do.




 Yup. Cats are (insert profanity here). They're actually trying to kill you. 

 1. When they sit on your chest they're trying to crush you (not heavy enough). 

2.  Human pincushion. Trying to claw you to death. Claws are to small. 

3. Rubbing up against your legs. Actually trying to foot trip you resulting in hard impact on the ground. 

 Etc. 

 True story honest. If you collapsed a dog would go get help. Eventually the cat will eat your eyeballs. Humans are just to stupid to figure it out.

 Cats (or dolphins) will rule the world.


----------



## NotAYakk

Hussar said:


> Ok, for those of us who are a bit slower than the rest of the class, why would reservoirs of Covid 19 in deer matter?  It's not like we have much contact with deer, by and large - they aren't going to breathe on us and, while I suppose urine or feces are around, I don't think Covid spreads that way.  If you hunt deer, again, it's not breathing on you, by and large, and, you're going to cook it pretty carefully - certainly enough to kill anything nasty in there.
> 
> So, I'm not following the chain here.
> 
> I could see if something like cows could be infected that it would be a huge problem.  But deer?  Is this actually going to matter?



Animal resivours for a disease make full eradication much much harder.

One could imagine a vaccine 10x as effectuve and a cheap instant test allowing us to track down and eliminate covid 19 from humans worldwide.  But if there are animal resivours this becomes harder.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Booster report-

So, I'm not technically in the category for an approved booster. But (as they say) I'm close enough for horseshoes, hand grenades, and "Dude, I have to deal with unvaccinated members of the public AND with kids." 

So I received the booster this weekend (Pfizer). It's been more than 6 months since I received the second dose. 

Notes-

1. They did not ask for proof of eligibility for the booster. They didn't even ask at all. 

2. Some people have complained about side effects, and every person is different. This was my easiest one- arm sore the next day and a little tired. I had already arranged to completely relax both the day of and the next day, so I was pleasantly surprised.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Yup. Cats are (insert profanity here). They're actually trying to kill you.




I know folks think this is funny, but... no, they aren't.  

And, I know this will sound like a wet blanket, but maintaining the refrain that cats are a-holes actually gives cover to people who get bad behavior from cats because they treat them in ways that are inappropriate for the cat.  

Sorry, but my wife has to go out today and will likely have to perform a euthanasia due to neglect - so today I'm not terribly tolerant of the position that the cats are the bad ones in human-cat relationships.


----------



## Umbran

So, if anyone here still needs a reason to stay on top of their vaccination and boosters, here it is:

A study of studies which indicates that about half (54% the study found) of people who get covid-19 experience some form of "long covid" symptoms lasting six months or more.









						Short- and Long-term Rates of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection
					

This systematic review estimates organ system–specific frequency and evolution of postacute sequelae of COVID-19 infection.




					jamanetwork.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

My family is still working on getting one of my cousins vaccinated,  He’s not exactly anti-vax, nor is he a conspiracy nut, but his distrustful  attitude towards white America is just shy of paranoid.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> My family is still working on getting one of my cousins vaccinated,  He’s not exactly anti-vax, nor is he a conspiracy nut, but his distrustful  attitude towards white America is just shy of paranoid.




 They've had similar thing here in Auckland and the lowest vax rates in the country (not Auckland). They're "only" something like 74% vaxxed. Best areas are 90% double vax and 95% single. 

Asians are something like 95/98%. 

  Vaccine passports went up today system overloaded. I'll wait a day or two for the paperwork online. 

 They're QR codes linked to the DHB databases so yeah have fun forging that. 

 Vaccine mandates also took effect from Monday. Last minute rush from the get vaxxed or no job lot. They lost a few teachers but don't know the exact numbers yet 1-3% perhaps.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> There's loads of things that are different between dogs and cats and humans.  This is why many of the things in your medicine cabinet are toxic to Rover and Fluffy, and why there aren't many diseases your animals can get that they can share with you, and vice versa.



Or heck, even just plain ole chocolate or grapes.


----------



## Zardnaar

1309/80000 staff stood down due to vaccine mandates in the health sector. 









						Waikato biggest loser as doctors, nurses and midwives stood down across country
					

District health boards are operating without 470 nurses because they have not been vaccinated.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 470 of them were nurses (30k total). They're not fired yet but are on that path. Maybe a few thought the government would blink. They didn't.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> 1309/80000 staff stood down due to vaccine mandates in the health sector.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Waikato biggest loser as doctors, nurses and midwives stood down across country
> 
> 
> District health boards are operating without 470 nurses because they have not been vaccinated.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 470 of them were nurses (30k total). They're not fired yet but are on that path. Maybe a few thought the government would blink. They didn't.



Wish that the government of Ontario, Canada hadn't blinked. We need to be vaxxed to walk into a restaurant, but health care workers don't need to be in order to walk into a hospital?!


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> Wish that the government of Ontario, Canada hadn't blinked. We need to be vaxxed to walk into a restaurant, but health care workers don't need to be in order to walk into a hospital?!




 Well theyay pay a price later but they've got two years to next election and the pattern should hold.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> My family is still working on getting one of my cousins vaccinated,  He’s not exactly anti-vax, nor is he a conspiracy nut, but his distrustful  attitude towards white America is just shy of paranoid.




I can't say I'd blame him.

Hopefully he'll get the point that this isn't a white America thing - seven billion doses of vaccines have been given, and 3.2 billion people are now fully vaccinated worldwide.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> I can't say I'd blame him.
> 
> Hopefully he'll get the point that this isn't a white America thing - seven billion doses of vaccines have been given, and 3.2 billion people are now fully vaccinated worldwide.




I thought I understood the why of folks not wanting to get a treatment because the government/politicians/business folks said to and they don't trust them for well justified reasons with a long history.  But I'm stuck on how the fact that all of the people doing the telling lined up to get the treatment first, and that all groups on the country are pretty much being told to get it, doesn't change the dynamic.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Cadence said:


> I thought I understood the why of folks not wanting to get a treatment because the government/politicians/business folks said to and they don't trust them for well justified reasons with a long history.  But I'm stuck on how the fact that all of the people doing the telling lined up to get the treatment first, and that all groups on the country are pretty much being told to get it, doesn't change the dynamic.



Think of it like the poison goblet/glass gambit: just because THEY took a sip doesn’t mean you’re getting the same stuff.  Or that they’re not protected some other way.

But even with that, my Dad (and all of us) are vaxxed & boosted with Pfizer or Moderna.  (And Dad came out of a program designed by Fauci…as one of the top students, might I add).  His current GF _and_ her daughter are at increased risk.

And STILL, my cousin balks.


----------



## Ryujin

Cadence said:


> I thought I understood the why of folks not wanting to get a treatment because the government/politicians/business folks said to and they don't trust them for well justified reasons with a long history.  But I'm stuck on how the fact that all of the people doing the telling lined up to get the treatment first, and that all groups on the country are pretty much being told to get it, doesn't change the dynamic.



There are historical reasons for this distrust that we can't really go into on this forum, because of the rules. The distrust is warranted specifically because of what @Dannyalcatraz mentioned, above.


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> I thought I understood the why of folks not wanting to get a treatment because the government/politicians/business folks said to and they don't trust them for well justified reasons with a long history.  But I'm stuck on how the fact that all of the people doing the telling lined up to get the treatment first, and that all groups on the country are pretty much being told to get it, doesn't change the dynamic.




If I understand what you are saying, here's a key element...

If you don't trust them... how do you trust that you are getting the same treatment they did?


----------



## Cadence

Ryujin said:


> There are historical reasons for this distrust that we can't really go into on this forum, because of the rules. The distrust is warranted specifically because of what @Dannyalcatraz mentioned, above.



I think I understand at least a few of the historical incidents pretty well (and hence understand why there would certainly be distrust).  It was the "poison goblet" idea that had never occurred to me.



Umbran said:


> If I understand what you are saying, here's a key element...
> 
> If you don't trust them... how do you trust that you are getting the same treatment they did?



I was going to ask if there were folks who would go to a different neighborhood (where they assumed folks would get the real thing) to get it then, but they'd still have to trust that the giver wouldn't switch it on them when they saw them in line.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> My family is still working on getting one of my cousins vaccinated,  He’s not exactly anti-vax, nor is he a conspiracy nut, but his distrustful  attitude towards white America is just shy of paranoid.




Well, not like there isn't some history there.


----------



## NotAYakk

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And STILL, my cousin balks.



Imagine not understanding the world.  And not understanding why you don't understand it.

You don't understand airplanes.  And when someone tries to explain it to you, it comes out as nonsense.  Complicated nonsense.

You do understand your lived experience.  You get on a plane and end up somewhere else.  You don't grasp aerodynamics, and you only trust that planes work because you know people who flew on planes, and most of them aren't dead.  You are still more than a bit terrified of them, because the news keeps on talking about crashes.

You don't understand taxes.  You are annoyed by the numbers on your paycheck.  You do things your boss tells you to do, because they have social power over you, and you have learned that direct defiance against people with social power over you ends poorly.  Sometimes you can't resist.  But often you sublimate it into using social power on those weaker than you.

You have learned that when your bank account goes too low, bad things happen.  So when you see it going down, you cut back on spending.  And when it goes up, you are told to do some savings.  But you also like spending it on cool naughty word.  And leases are awesome, because you can get stuff without having numbers in your bank account.

Maybe you have gone to school, and picked up an area of expertise.  In that area, you have learned best practices.  You have memorized enough domain-specific math to be competent in that domain.  Maybe you know the basics of amortization as it applies to real estate or business good purchases.  Maybe you are even an engineer, and know how to do differential equations and component analysis to determine stress on load bearing members.  You sometimes apply these techniques elsewhere.  But in areas you aren't an expert, you assume you are either equally qualified, or the other people are spewing naughty word.

And now we have this pandemic.

You can't see it.  People using science you don't understand are telling you to do annoying things that seem to have no effect.  People who act like you are saying it is naughty word.

Societies reaction to the pandemic was informed by the nature of exponential curves and forecasts by experts.  We didn't do a lockdown in California (or whatever) because of what was happening there, but because of Italy and NYC and a *prediction* of what would happen in California if we didn't.

Even today, the "sensible" responses are based off of abstract reasoning and trust in the models of experts and the assumption that what goes wrong elsewhere would go wrong here.  They aren't direct responses to concrete local events.

Opposing that is "common sense" (concrete, local, personal experience based), and as you repeat your "common sense" position it becomes a matter of opposing it because you are on the other side of the argument.

This is why messaging and preparation is key to getting a high uptake of something like vaccines to work.  "It actually works" only convinces a certain percentage of the population.

Parents get kids vaccinated more out of "common sense", it is the way things work, not out of an understanding of the arguments about why vaccination is a good idea.


----------



## Janx

NotAYakk said:


> Imagine not understanding the world.  And not understanding why you don't understand it.
> 
> You don't understand airplanes.  And when someone tries to explain it to you, it comes out as nonsense.  Complicated nonsense.
> 
> You do understand your lived experience.  You get on a plane and end up somewhere else.  You don't grasp aerodynamics, and you only trust that planes work because you know people who flew on planes, and most of them aren't dead.  You are still more than a bit terrified of them, because the news keeps on talking about crashes.
> 
> You don't understand taxes.  You are annoyed by the numbers on your paycheck.  You do things your boss tells you to do, because they have social power over you, and you have learned that direct defiance against people with social power over you ends poorly.  Sometimes you can't resist.  But often you sublimate it into using social power on those weaker than you.
> 
> You have learned that when your bank account goes too low, bad things happen.  So when you see it going down, you cut back on spending.  And when it goes up, you are told to do some savings.  But you also like spending it on cool naughty word.  And leases are awesome, because you can get stuff without having numbers in your bank account.
> 
> Maybe you have gone to school, and picked up an area of expertise.  In that area, you have learned best practices.  You have memorized enough domain-specific math to be competent in that domain.  Maybe you know the basics of amortization as it applies to real estate or business good purchases.  Maybe you are even an engineer, and know how to do differential equations and component analysis to determine stress on load bearing members.  You sometimes apply these techniques elsewhere.  But in areas you aren't an expert, you assume you are either equally qualified, or the other people are spewing naughty word.
> 
> And now we have this pandemic.
> 
> You can't see it.  People using science you don't understand are telling you to do annoying things that seem to have no effect.  People who act like you are saying it is naughty word.
> 
> Societies reaction to the pandemic was informed by the nature of exponential curves and forecasts by experts.  We didn't do a lockdown in California (or whatever) because of what was happening there, but because of Italy and NYC and a *prediction* of what would happen in California if we didn't.
> 
> Even today, the "sensible" responses are based off of abstract reasoning and trust in the models of experts and the assumption that what goes wrong elsewhere would go wrong here.  They aren't direct responses to concrete local events.
> 
> Opposing that is "common sense" (concrete, local, personal experience based), and as you repeat your "common sense" position it becomes a matter of opposing it because you are on the other side of the argument.
> 
> This is why messaging and preparation is key to getting a high uptake of something like vaccines to work.  "It actually works" only convinces a certain percentage of the population.
> 
> Parents get kids vaccinated more out of "common sense", it is the way things work, not out of an understanding of the arguments about why vaccination is a good idea.



to add to this, there are evil people actively creating propaganda to encourage doing the wrong thing specifically to cause chaos and harm. So the "You" in your story is someone susceptible to that.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Imagine not understanding the world.  And not understanding why you don't understand it.




Um... explaining to Danny why an African American might not trust the American healthcare system is, as they saying goes, teaching your grandmother to suck eggs.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> Um... explaining to Danny why an African American might not trust the American healthcare system is, as they saying goes, teaching your grandmother to suck eggs.



Sorry, I wasn't trying to directly address that subgroup.  My apologies Danny.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz




----------



## Janx

Umbran said:


> Um... explaining to Danny why an African American might not trust the American healthcare system is, as they saying goes, teaching your grandmother to suck eggs.



good point, my reply wasn't even thinking of that as I hadn't seen Danny's pretty clear post the reply I replied to was for. totally different.  Sorry Danny.


----------



## Thomas Shey

And just in case it wasn't clear, mine was intended more as sympathy for the cousin in this case (something I have for very few of the vaccine resistant).


----------



## Zardnaar

You lot haven't seen photos of the incomparable Danny he of the awesome doggos, purveyor of fine cooking and sandwhiches?

 Best I can do is a duck thread and seeing if beer is a Covid preventative!!.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

S’allright, y’all.  It’s not like I have an avatar or anything else declaring my PoC ID other than a few posts which explicitly mention it, buried in my tens of thousands of other posts.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> S’allright, y’all.  It’s not like I have an avatar or anything else declaring my PoC ID other than a few posts which explicitly mention it, buried in my tens of thousands of other posts.




Yeah, but in my case I got it by implication of how your original phrasing in the post about your cousin was.  I just think it was possible to read what I responded with like I thought you didn't already know it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz




----------



## Janx

So to sum up, it turns out people have varying reasons for being anti-vax, some of it based on legitimate concern.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Janx said:


> So to sum up, it turns out people have varying reasons for being anti-vax, some of it based on legitimate concern.




Uhm.  "Legitimate" can be argued, but at least some of the concerns come from understandable places.


----------



## J.Quondam

Thomas Shey said:


> Uhm.  "Legitimate" can be argued, but at least some of the concerns come from understandable places.



Exactly. A rational decision can still be a bad decision.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

So, speaking of bad decision making, certain American leaders have gone from anti-COVID vaccine to full on pro-pathogen.









						GOP opposition to vaccine mandates extends far beyond Covid-19
					

For months, Republicans have railed against Covid-19 vaccine mandates. More recently, though, right-wing state legislators have floated proposals to ban requirements for all immunizations — not just coronavirus.




					www.statnews.com
				




TL;DR: in several states, they’re trying to roll back mandates for most or ALL vaccines- mumps, measles, polio, etc.

I’m trying to decide which of these sayings is true:

1) “It’s always darkest before the dawn.” (Optimistic original version), OR

2) “It’s always darkest before it goes pitch black..” (Pessimistic version)


----------



## Hussar

There are just no words.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> There are just no words.




Oh, there are words.  They are not fit on these boards for due to our language and no-politics rules.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> So, speaking of bad decision making, certain American leaders have gone from anti-COVID vaccine to full on pro-pathogen.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GOP opposition to vaccine mandates extends far beyond Covid-19
> 
> 
> For months, Republicans have railed against Covid-19 vaccine mandates. More recently, though, right-wing state legislators have floated proposals to ban requirements for all immunizations — not just coronavirus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TL;DR: in several states, they’re trying to roll back mandates for most or ALL vaccines- mumps, measles, polio, etc.
> 
> I’m trying to decide which of these sayings is true:
> 
> 1) “It’s always darkest before the dawn.” (Optimistic original version), OR
> 
> 2) “It’s always darkest before it goes pitch black..” (Pessimistic version)




I've seen certain groups referred to elsewhere as Nergal cultists (a W40K reference to the god of disease apparently), and prior to this I thought that was (not inaccurate) hyperbole.  Now I'm not even sure its hyperbole.


----------



## MoonSong

Soeaking of other vaccines. enworlder in the North Hemisphere, have you had the flu shot yet?  (I just had it yesterday)


----------



## Umbran

MoonSong said:


> Soeaking of other vaccines. enworlder in the North Hemisphere, have you had the flu shot yet?  (I just had it yesterday)




Not yet.  I get my covid booster tomorrow, and the current recommendation I've been given is to not get them at the same time.  I was expecting to pop down to my local drug store to get a flu shot a few days afterwards.


----------



## Mallus

We got our flu shots last weekend. Will probably get COVID boosters within a week or two.


----------



## J.Quondam

I'll get my covid booster early next week, then flu probably the following week? 
I'll follow whatever advice the medical peeps give when I ask during the booster.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Not yet, but I'm looking into it.


----------



## MoonSong

Umbran said:


> Not yet.  I get my covid booster tomorrow, and the current recommendation I've been given is to not get them at the same time.  I was expecting to pop down to my local drug store to get a flu shot a few days afterwards.



I wish the booster was an option for me. but I'll have to do with the one dose Chinese shot that put me to bed for two days. At least except from my cousin and a couple of friends, everybody else I care for had a better one...


----------



## billd91

I got both my COVID booster and flu shot at the end of October. Got the on the same day.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> I got both my COVID booster and flu shot at the end of October. Got the on the same day.




Yeah, it seems like the guidance has changed - a few weeks ago my wife got her booster and flu shot at the same time.  I'm going to the same place, but they no longer allow people to schedule both at once.


----------



## Thomas Shey

MoonSong said:


> Soeaking of other vaccines. enworlder in the North Hemisphere, have you had the flu shot yet?  (I just had it yesterday)




Weeks ago at this point.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Not yet.  I get my covid booster tomorrow, and the current recommendation I've been given is to not get them at the same time.  I was expecting to pop down to my local drug store to get a flu shot a few days afterwards.




Interesting.  The CVS I went to for my booster Wednesday was offering dual vaccine appointments.  I'm guessing this is one of those things there's differences of opinion on.


----------



## Cadence

MoonSong said:


> Soeaking of other vaccines. enworlder in the North Hemisphere, have you had the flu shot yet?  (I just had it yesterday)




Full family got flu shots several weeks to a bit over a month ago, and the two of us old enough to got the COVID boosters.  (The 12yo got his first COVID shot on his bday at the end of summer and finished up on schedule).


----------



## Deset Gled

Thomas Shey said:


> Interesting.  The CVS I went to for my booster Wednesday was offering dual vaccine appointments.  I'm guessing this is one of those things there's differences of opinion on.




I got both at the same time earlier this week.  Took about 36 hours to not feel terrible. I recommend spreading them out if that's a problem for you, but honestly it was probably better for me to have both at once because I would have just procrastinated about getting the flu shot otherwise.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Deset Gled said:


> I got both at the same time earlier this week.  Took about 36 hours to not feel terrible. I recommend spreading them out if that's a problem for you, but honestly it was probably better for me to have both at once because I would have just procrastinated about getting the flu shot otherwise.




Like I said, I had my flu vax weeks ago; this was just the booster.

Mind you, I may have had some extra fatigue yesterday from that, but if so, it wasn't severe and didn't seem as strong as after the second regular dose.


----------



## Mannahnin

Flu a few weeks ago.  Covid booster about 90 minutes ago.  Got Pfizer to go with my Moderna.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Poke-A-Man!  Gotta collect them all!

The only vaccination I have left on 2021’s schedul is my 2nd shingrix shot.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Thomas Shey said:


> I've seen certain groups referred to elsewhere as Nergal cultists (a W40K reference to the god of disease apparently), and prior to this I thought that was (not inaccurate) hyperbole.  Now I'm not even sure its hyperbole.



Yep.  My Dad (MD) is rightfully pissed off, but Mom is simply horrified.  She keeps coming back to it every few hours.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Poke-A-Man!  Gotta collect them all!
> 
> The only vaccination I have left on 2021’s schedul is my 2nd shingrix shot.



That's one I get to skip because I'm in the rare case of never having had chicken pox (this came up when my wife did have an outbreak of shingles about a year ago.  Lemme tell you how fun it can be trying to find the adult chicken pox vaccine during a pandemic...)


----------



## Ryujin

Thomas Shey said:


> That's one I get to skip because I'm in the rare case of never having had chicken pox (this came up when my wife did have an outbreak of shingles about a year ago.  Lemme tell you how fun it can be trying to find the adult chicken pox vaccine during a pandemic...)



Surprisingly, dead easy here. I just have to schedule an appointment (actually two, I think). Covered by my employee health plan too.


----------



## Umbran

Well, I guess I won't be getting a booster tomorrow.  I made the appointment days ago, and they just called me to tell me that their systems erroneously opened up several hundred appointments that they don't have product or staff to fulfill.  So, I go back to the drawing board trying to find an appointment.

Of course, the state just opened up booster availability to everyone, so... I don't expect to have great luck.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> I've seen certain groups referred to elsewhere as Nergal cultists (a W40K reference to the god of disease apparently), and prior to this I thought that was (not inaccurate) hyperbole.  Now I'm not even sure its hyperbole.




 I don't play WH40K but get the reference. I've been calling then plague rats. 

 Small minority here but loud. 

 Can't really say my thoughts or reasonings but the polite version it's the culmination of the post Vietnam era.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> Surprisingly, dead easy here. I just have to schedule an appointment (actually two, I think). Covered by my employee health plan too.




I wouldn't have expected it to be hard either, but neither my doctor nor any of the local pharmacies had it or an easy way to get it; I finally found a nearby medical clinic that had it.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Well, I guess I won't be getting a booster tomorrow.  I made the appointment days ago, and they just called me to tell me that their systems erroneously opened up several hundred appointments that they don't have product or staff to fulfill.  So, I go back to the drawing board trying to find an appointment.
> 
> Of course, the state just opened up booster availability to everyone, so... I don't expect to have great luck.




Where are you located?  In California apparently supply for boosters has radically exceeded demand, even though the state made it available to all adults a few weeks ago.


----------



## Mirtek

I got my flu shot back in September and will get my Covid booster as close to the end of my 6 month period as possible. I hope still this year, but since my 6 month would be over 14th of December I may not get if before everything goes into holiday mode.


----------



## Zardnaar

Singapore gonna make unvaccinated pay. Personally I would bother cancelling critical services just put the unvaccinated in a tent outside.

 They gave a very high % vaccinated as well not sure what ones they used though or when. 6% unvaccinated.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> Where are you located?




Massachusetts.  I suspect the demand for boosters will be pretty brisk.

I'll find one somewhere. It'll just take a bit of effort.  

There's a silver lining - my wife had gotten knocked pretty hard by her booster, and while she very much wants me fully vaccinated, she is also depending on me to do the Thanksgiving shopping this weekend, and was concerned that if I got floored by it, the plans would end up higgledy-piggledey. 

Not that I'd had a terribly strong reaction to the first two - sore arm and needed a nap.  But, you know, when there is a plan, there's worry.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Frankly, from what I understand, the underutilization in California is a serious disappointment to the people managing it.  I was being a bit conservative myself since both I and my wife are borderline cases (we're both on the obese side, I'm 64 and she's 45 and pre-diabetic) and I didn't want to be a potential dose that could go to people who hadn't been vaccinated _at all_ yet.

But if its just sitting around and on the clock anyway--well, why the hell not?

It appears to have flipped a bit between us; the second dose I reacted a bit stronger than she did to, the booster she may have reacted a bit stronger than I did, but for both of us it just added up to some extra fatigue.


----------



## J.Quondam

Got my Pfizer booster yesterday. Aside from the usual sore arm and a little ongoing groppiness, it's been fine-- nowhere near as bad as the second dose. 
I completely forgot to ask about flu, though.


----------



## Garthanos

J.Quondam said:


> Got my Pfizer booster yesterday. Aside from the usual sore arm and a little ongoing groppiness, it's been fine-- nowhere near as bad as the second dose.
> I completely forgot to ask about flu, though.



There is a very high correlation between longer life spans and getting the flu vaccine.  (correlation != causation but... in this case there is some established causative components).


----------



## Cadence

Garthanos said:


> There is a very high correlation between longer life spans and getting the flu vaccine.  (correlation != causation but... in this case there is some established causative components).



Given that dead people can't get it anymore it kind of makes sense there'd be a correlation between the number of years someone got the flu vaccine and how long they lived ;-)

In other news, it's trending up again


----------



## J.Quondam

Garthanos said:


> There is a very high correlation between longer life spans and getting the flu vaccine.  (correlation != causation but... in this case there is some established causative components).



I didn't know that, but it makes intuitive sense.
I'll get my flu shot next week after the holiday. Family's not doing any get-togethers and I've got _zero_ intention of going out into the shopping crowds, so I'm not too worried about it. 

(And to be honest, I'll take flu over a cold any day. Ugh, I _hate_ colds. Now _that's _the seasonal shot I hope gets developed soon!)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Cadence said:


> Given that dead people can't get it anymore it kind of makes sense there'd be a correlation between the number of years someone got the flu vaccine and how long they lived ;-)
> 
> In other news, it's trending up again
> 
> View attachment 147220



Despite our bishop declaring an end to the attendance dispensation effective post-Christmas, my (immunologist) father has declared he’s not going back if the upward trend continues.  Mom will likely follow his lead, and I’m not going to be the loner on this.

 Faith is a big thing for us.  The man was literally an altar boy.  His father was (briefly) in seminary school.  Mom walked to & from church as a young teen when her mom lapsed.  We have clergy in the family- mostly nuns.

So for them to disagree with a bishop on this is, to me, pretty telling.


----------



## Mannahnin

NH has more than doubled our case positivity rate again over the last month, from around 4% to 9.4% now, which is higher than it's been at any time during the entire pandemic.

My hospital has been basically at capacity and intermittently in Divert status (telling ambulances to go elsewhere) for the last week or two.

I've resumed wearing a mask at the gym, and never stopped in stores and other public indoor spaces.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> There is a very high correlation between longer life spans and getting the flu vaccine.  (correlation != causation but... in this case there is some established causative components).




Getting flu vaccines likely also correlates with better access to and utilization of preventative healthcare - as in people who get flu vaccines probably more likely get yearly checkups and stuff.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> Massachusetts.  I suspect the demand for boosters will be pretty brisk.
> 
> I'll find one somewhere. It'll just take a bit of effort.
> 
> There's a silver lining - my wife had gotten knocked pretty hard by her booster, and while she very much wants me fully vaccinated, she is also depending on me to do the Thanksgiving shopping this weekend, and was concerned that if I got floored by it, the plans would end up higgledy-piggledey.
> 
> Not that I'd had a terribly strong reaction to the first two - sore arm and needed a nap.  But, you know, when there is a plan, there's worry.



My first shot was sore arm and oddly enough, a surge of energy.  The second shot was just a sore arm.  The booster, though, gave me a sore arm, some slight nausea and a general out of sorts feeling for the first day.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> My first shot was sore arm and oddly enough, a surge of energy.  The second shot was just a sore arm.  The booster, though, gave me a sore arm, some slight nausea and a general out of sorts feeling for the first day.




Which all amounts to, who the heck knows how it'll go?

After the cancellation of my booster, I have a new one scheduled in a week and a half, along with a flu shot.


----------



## Mirtek

Getting my booster on the 18th.

I am hoping for Moderna to complement my two doses of Pfizer, but ultimately I have to take what will be in the week that I am scheduled.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Well, this is just lovely if it ends up being true: A new Covid-19 variant could show immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility, South African scientists warn


----------



## Ryujin

Thomas Shey said:


> Well, this is just lovely if it ends up being true: A new Covid-19 variant could show immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility, South African scientists warn



Sounds like EU is going to be blocking flights from South Africa. If not already, then soon.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> Sounds like EU is going to be blocking flights from South Africa. If not already, then soon.



America should as well, but Fauci says we will be examining info on it first.  The problem with that is that by the time we finish examining the information on it, if we need to shut down it will be too late.  For new variants travel should be shut down immediately, and then study to see when we should reopen the travel.


----------



## MoonSong

Maxperson said:


> America should as well, but Fauci says we will be examining info on it first.  The problem with that is that by the time we finish examining the information on it, if we need to shut down it will be too late.  For new variants travel should be shut down immediately, and then study to see when we should reopen the travel.



America should suspend all flights ASAP and "force" key trade partners to follow suit... I mean it is the only way. The ones in charge of my country aren't going to do it themselves otherwise. u.u


----------



## Eltab

Maxperson said:


> America should as well, but Fauci says we will be examining info on it first.  The problem with that is that by the time we finish examining the information on it, if we need to shut down it will be too late.  For new variants travel should be shut down immediately, and then study to see when we should reopen the travel.



Per Dr. Gottlieb's (prior FDA Commissioner) book, a lot of the US public health bureaucracy is rear-view-mirror oriented, not future-oriented.   Taking action to prevent an upcoming problem is unfamiliar territory, but analysis after the fact is their forte.


----------



## J.Quondam

Maxperson said:


> America should as well, but Fauci says we will be examining info on it first.  The problem with that is that by the time we finish examining the information on it, if we need to shut down it will be too late.  For new variants travel should be shut down immediately, and then study to see when we should reopen the travel.



If we do examine it, it takes too long, and people get sick and die. If we don't "examine" it, it's "unscientific" and/or too "tyrannical."
Either way, someone somewhere is "playing politics" with the pandemic.
Damned if we do, damned if we don't.
It's maddening.


----------



## Maxperson

J.Quondam said:


> If we do examine it, it takes too long, and people get sick and die. If we don't "examine" it, it's "unscientific" and/or too "tyrannical."
> Either way, someone somewhere is "playing politics" with the pandemic.
> Damned if we do, damned if we don't.
> It's maddening.



I don't care about politics when it comes to something like the pandemic.  My view is that if one way saves lives and people are going to be upset either way it goes, go the way that saves lives. It's a really easy decision.


----------



## J.Quondam

Maxperson said:


> I don't care about politics when it comes to something like the pandemic.  My view is that if one way saves lives and people are going to be upset either way it goes, go the way that saves lives. It's a really easy decision.



Oh, I absolutely agree. Unfortunately, the decision-makers, lobbyists, media talking heads, etc, do not.
Hence the mess we're in!


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> For new variants travel should be shut down immediately, and then study to see when we should reopen the travel.




But, "new variants" come up all the time. Constantly, because anything with the slightest genetic difference is, technically speaking, a new variant.  Like, statistically, every person who gets covid probably produces a new variant. If you shut down travel for every new variant, then travel is shut down permanently.  If you trigger on every single new variant, you will be paralyzed.

So, we need some other threshold for a new variant that we need to be concerned about.  But, evaluating the threat presented is complicated, and requires some judgement by experts... which is what you have now.

Edit to add:  And oh, look, after consideration, the US is stopping travel to some African nations of this.  Almost like the system works as intended!

And, interestingly, they are calling this one Omicron.  If they've been naming sequentially, then, and the one we've generally hearing about has been Delta, that means there have been ten other variants named since Delta, but that turned out to not be a big deal.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> Well, this is just lovely if it ends up being true: A new Covid-19 variant could show immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility, South African scientists warn




So, let us be very clear.  The article says it "could show immune evasion..." and that sounds scary.  But in the next words it says, "it is _too soon to tell_". (emphasis mine)

That "could" does a huge amount of heavy lifting.  It is not, "We have preliminary evidence that suggests this to be true".  It is merely, "this is theoretically possible."  It is a line intended to raise anxiety, likely worded that way to get you to keep coming back to the news source to learn more - in other words, clickbait.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

One of my cousins literally just returned from a missionary trip to South Africa.  She’s fully vaxed- in fact, that was a prerequisite for going in the mission- and feeling fine, but she’s still going to self-quarantine for a couple of weeks, just to be sure.


----------



## Mannahnin

Umbran said:


> And, interestingly, they are calling this one Omicron.  If they've been naming sequentially, then, and the one we've generally hearing about has been Delta, that means there have been ten other variants named since Delta, but that turned out to not be a big deal.



Yup. I remember specifically hearing about Lambda being inferior compared to Delta and being unable to compete against it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well we need that more virulent less fatal strain.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> So, let us be very clear.  The article says it "could show immune evasion..." and that sounds scary.  But in the next words it says, "it is _too soon to tell_". (emphasis mine)
> 
> That "could" does a huge amount of heavy lifting.  It is not, "We have preliminary evidence that suggests this to be true".  It is merely, "this is theoretically possible."  It is a line intended to raise anxiety, likely worded that way to get you to keep coming back to the news source to learn more - in other words, clickbait.




Do note the "if" in my post.

The issue is that there's apparently a large number of mutations on the spike protein head, which is where you expect problems to come in.  Doesn't mean they will--they've been looking at cases for less than a week now if I understand it--but with the numbers of such, this is the kind of variant you'd expect to be a problem, if you're going to get one, with immune responses.

Which could well end up meaning nothing, but its also absolutely the case where you don't want to wait around long enough to be sure to take precautions.

(To be clear, this is not me disagreeing with your point on your prior post that you have to have some line you reach before you start early reactions, but this does not, on the face of it, seem a routine variant).


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Umbran said:


> And, interestingly, they are calling this one Omicron.  If they've been naming sequentially, then, and the one we've generally hearing about has been Delta, that means there have been ten other variants named since Delta, but that turned out to not be a big deal.




I love it. Omicron.

I think we need to move away from the Greek and just go full-on Transformers. Next one should be Optimus Prime.

If COVID is going to kill me, at least I should be taken out by some kind of awesome variant. I'm holding out until the John Wick variant.


----------



## Eltab

Snarf Zagyg said:


> I love it. Omicron.
> 
> I think we need to move away from the Greek and just go full-on Transformers. Next one should be Optimus Prime.
> 
> If COVID is going to kill me, at least I should be taken out by some kind of awesome variant. I'm holding out until the John Wick variant.



The variant that kills you* should be known as the Megatron variant.

The Optimus Prime variant will be the one that, once you get it, your antibodies fight off every other variant with no further ado.
Because, well, hero.

* generic _you_ not you personally


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Eltab said:


> The variant that kills you* should be known as the Megatron variant.
> 
> The Optimus Prime variant will be the one that, once you get it, your antibodies fight off every other variant with no further ado.
> Because, well, hero.
> 
> * generic _you_ not you personally




Oh … you assume I’m a hero. 

That’s sweet!


----------



## Mallus

We're closing in on the Alpha-Omega variant, aren't we?


----------



## Ryujin

Maxperson said:


> America should as well, but Fauci says we will be examining info on it first.  The problem with that is that by the time we finish examining the information on it, if we need to shut down it will be too late.  For new variants travel should be shut down immediately, and then study to see when we should reopen the travel.



I heard on the radio, this afternoon, that Canada has already blocked flights originating in several southern African nations.


----------



## Maxperson

Mallus said:


> We're closing in on the Alpha-Omega variant, aren't we?



I think Phi Beta Kappa is next.


----------



## Hussar

Well, of course, they'll shut down flights to Africa.  They can do that without triggering all the political fallout that they would if they cancelled flights from wh... other nations.  

Then again, Japan has closed its airports for two years now.  We can fly out and return, but, no tourist visas have been approved since early 2001.  Some student visas are now being processed, finally, but the backlog is insane.  Same with work visas.

It utterly baffles me that other countries haven't had their airports closed.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Well, in some cases where you have seaports and land routes, its at least of questionable value unless done selectively.  Airports allow the fastest transition, but they aren't the only way.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Also…my mistake, I thought the Diocese of Dallas’s personal attendance dispensation ended on December 28.  Actually, it ends November 28.  So we’re going to try to attend services tomorrow.

But besides my error on the timing, the decision not to attend during a spike remains unchanged.


----------



## Mirtek

Too late anyway. It's in the Netherlands and Germany already.

We can be pretty sure it's also in our neighbors, just not yet noticed amidst the buzz of all other daily infections


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> Well, in some cases where you have seaports and land routes, its at least of questionable value unless done selectively.  Airports allow the fastest transition, but they aren't the only way.




Well, the only way to be _absolutely_ sure is to hermetically seal your country.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Well, the only way to be _absolutely_ sure is to hermetically seal your country.




I'm just saying that there's cases where it gets more and more pointless unless you're going to do really strong border controls in other ways.  At least something like Japan or England is an island, and you have the case of, I believe its Iceland, which really only has a single port of entry.

But a lot of Europe or the U.S. its really kind of a joke.


----------



## GreyLord

It can still slow it down for time to respond.  One or two people starting the spread is still a slower spread than 200 or 300...and that is less than 1000 or 2000 coming into your nation.

The goal of closing the border isn't to stop it, but slow it down for time to determine a response.

As for the Omnicron variant, that time could result in seeing if it is more or less lethal than other strains (it would be great if it were far less lethal, even if it is more contagious.  In many diseases, when they become more contagious they also become less lethal, but not always.  We can only hope it is less lethal with this variant...hopefully).

If it is just as lethal or more so...that is concerning and where new actions may have to be taken after it is seen what it does after a few weeks.


----------



## Thomas Shey

That's absolutely true in a case where its not already propagated (as is the case with Omicron), but in cases where the country is blocked off for months its absolutely pointless; the number of people bringing it in area smaller than the number within the area spreading it.


----------



## Ryujin

I'm holding out for Omicron Seti III.


----------



## Rabulias

I have a feeling that Omicron is likely widely dispersed around the world already, including here in the US. No evidence to cite, just a gut feeling based on past Covid reports here. IMO, we need to ramp up testing here a lot to monitor Covid's development and progress more.


----------



## Ryujin

Rabulias said:


> I have a feeling that Omicron is likely widely dispersed around the world already, including here in the US. No evidence to cite, just a gut feeling based on past Covid reports here. IMO, we need to ramp up testing here a lot to monitor Covid's development and progress more.



you're probably right. The real question is, "Is Covid-19 more like seeing a mouse or a cockroach in your house?" If you see a mouse, then there are 20 more that you don't see, but if you see a roach, there are hundreds more.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> Well, the only way to be _absolutely_ sure is to *hermetically seal* your country.



As complete aside, I still can't hear that without thinking of Carnac the Magnificent and his mayonnaise jar.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> I'm holding out for Omicron Seti III.



I thought about that this morning when I read some of the news on the variant.


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> As complete aside, I still can't hear that without thinking of Carnac the Magnificent and his mayonnaise jar.




And I can't write it without thinking of the Order of Hermes from _Mage: The Ascension_.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> That's absolutely true in a case where its not already propagated (as is the case with Omicron), but in cases where the country is blocked off for months its absolutely pointless; the number of people bringing it in area smaller than the number within the area spreading it.




We should note:  Omicron was _first detected and isolated_ in South Africa.  That does not tell us where it originated.  It could easily have come to South Africa from elsewhere, and they were just the first ones to have noted it was an unknown strain.


----------



## Zardnaar

It's been found in UK.


----------



## Maxperson

I'm not surprised that it has been found on other continents.  The way the virus works with people becoming contagious before symptoms strike, it's almost impossible to contain.  

I also agree with @Umbran that it might not have originated in South Africa.  It was discovered about 2 weeks ago and is already making up as many as 90% of the new cases in South Africa.  That's a very, very rapid spread if it just originated there a few weeks ago.


----------



## Zardnaar

Omicron in Australia. 









						Covid-19: Two arrivals test positive for Omicron strain in New South Wales
					

NSW Health has reported two overseas arrivals have tested positive for the new strain of the Covid-19 virus known as Omicron.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Good news perhaps?









						South African doctor who raised alarm about omicron variant says symptoms are ‘unusual but mild’
					

Dr Angelique Coetzee noticed otherwise healthy patients showing unusual symptoms and worries how the new variant might hurt the elderly




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




Mild symptoms.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Getting flu vaccines likely also correlates with better access to and utilization of preventative healthcare - as in people who get flu vaccines probably more likely get yearly checkups and stuff.



and perhaps even living in cities.  Those who live nearer hospitals and medical facilities get to them for emergencies quicker and have longer life spans. And those in the cities may also feel the immediacy of more people they need to protect themself from disease more.  Even strong correlations may occur from a lot of different routes. Guess that mostly counts as better access.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> I'm holding out for Omicron Seti III.




Even better - Omicron Persei 8


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Even better - Omicron Persei 8
> View attachment 147437



I think that I'll take the "make happy" infection over the "eating humans" infection, thankya verra much


----------



## Zardnaar

Oz and NZ highest levels if trust in science. 









						Trust in scientists soared in Australia and New Zealand during Covid pandemic, poll finds
					

Gallup survey reveals the two countries have the world’s highest levels of trust in scientists, with 62% saying they trust them ‘a lot’




					www.theguardian.com
				




It's not universal though. 










						Popular journalist and staunch anti-vaxxer dies of Covid-19
					

Asked if he was vaccinated, Auckland man Rex Warwood said: "You're not sticking that s... in me." Weeks later, he was dead.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 NZs first Herman Cain award. His Facebook feed full of the usual anti vax bilge.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> Oz and NZ highest levels if trust in science.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Trust in scientists soared in Australia and New Zealand during Covid pandemic, poll finds
> 
> 
> Gallup survey reveals the two countries have the world’s highest levels of trust in scientists, with 62% saying they trust them ‘a lot’
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com



My trust in our government plummeted through the ground...


----------



## Hussar

Well, Japan just cut all visas now.  No one enters the country.  Full stop.

Sheesh.  We have apparently had an Omicron case - apparently a diplomat from Namibia who had had both of his shots.   

On the plus side, we've had a full week of under 100 new daily cases nationwide.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> My trust in our government plummeted through the ground...




I didn't have any faith in yours to begin with no offense intended. It's a very small list of those I do trust. Taiwan, some SEA, some Scandinavian places, various 
Pacific micronations. Australia and Canada to some extent. That's almost it.


----------



## Garthanos

Zardnaar said:


> I didn't have any faith in yours to begin with no offense intended.



I suppose I had assumptions about self interest preventing some of the idiocy... but nope.


----------



## Zardnaar

Garthanos said:


> I suppose I had assumptions about self interest preventing some of the idiocy... but nope.




 I read a lot of history. I often wondered why some places (eg Rome, Byzantines, Assyrian, Sassanids) fell apart when basic self preservation should have prevented it. 

 Now I understand.


----------



## Imaculata

At least this new variant has a cool theme song.

Also, I suggest instead of Transformers names, we name any new variants after Resident Evil boss monsters.

I await the Nemesis variant.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> At least this new variant has a cool theme song.
> 
> Also, I suggest instead of Transformers names, we name any new variants after Resident Evil boss monsters.
> 
> I await the Nemesis variant.




 Nemesis is also a MtG setting.


----------



## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> I suppose I had assumptions about self interest preventing some of the idiocy... but nope.




Oh, everyone's acting in their self-interest.  However, what we need is people acting in _enlightened_ self-interest, which is not the same thing.


----------



## Zardnaar

Got my vaccine passport today. Took around 5 minutes on the phone. 
 Basically had to enter birth certificate details which is linked to my medical records. Downloads an app to your phone or you can print it off. 

 Hospitality type jobs have to have all staff vaccinated and check the passport of only do contactless takeaways. 

  2 places at least in my province have closed and ones going with contactless.

 Rules are changing tomorrow. Local council requires the passports for facilities so with summer coming up that includes pools, museums, stadium, etc.

 Also applies for the great outdoors.








						People will need to be fully vaccinated to book Doc huts, campsites
					

People will need to be fully vaccinated against Covid-19 to be able to stay in Department of Conservation huts and campsites from 15 December. This...




					www.odt.co.nz


----------



## CapnZapp

The European Union is FINALLY considering making vaccination mandatory!

So.

Many.

Lives.

That would have been saved if this was done nine months ago...

In other words, yes, you have a right to be a selfish idiot.

But not when it kills the people around you and brings medical services to it's knees.


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> The European Union is FINALLY considering making vaccination mandatory!
> 
> So.
> 
> Many.
> 
> Lives.
> 
> That would have been saved if this was done nine months ago...
> 
> In other words, yes, you have a right to be a selfish idiot.
> 
> But not when it kills the people around you and brings medical services to it's knees.




 It's actually against the law here to make it mandatory. Rates are creeping up around 90% and they can do a lot of arm twisting.


----------



## DollarD

Hussar said:


> Well, Japan just cut all visas now.  No one enters the country.  Full stop.
> 
> Sheesh.  We have apparently had an Omicron case - apparently a diplomat from Namibia who had had both of his shots.
> 
> On the plus side, we've had a full week of under 100 new daily cases nationwide.




Well, please accept my apologies from Namibia. We've yet to identify a Omicron case, and have been averaging less than 10 cases identified per day. No idea where that diplomat was traveling beforehand. 

Though just yesterday we saw a spike to 45 cases for the day, an 84% increase from the day before. The Ministry of Health notes that so far Omicron hasn't been detected here.


----------



## CapnZapp

Zardnaar said:


> It's actually against the law here



You have my condoleances.


----------



## Mirtek

Zardnaar said:


> It's actually against the law here to make it mandatory. Rates are creeping up around 90% and they can do a lot of arm twisting.



It's also highly controversal whether the EU actually has the right to meddle in that aspect of their member states. I doubt that anything will come out of this, just some EU politician wanting to make the news


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> It's also highly controversal whether the EU actually has the right to meddle in that aspect of their member states. I doubt that anything will come out of this, just some EU politician wanting to make the news




 Yeah sems to be an individual state thing.


----------



## Hussar

DollarD said:


> Well, please accept my apologies from Namibia. We've yet to identify a Omicron case, and have been averaging less than 10 cases identified per day. No idea where that diplomat was traveling beforehand.
> 
> Though just yesterday we saw a spike to 45 cases for the day, an 84% increase from the day before. The Ministry of Health notes that so far Omicron hasn't been detected here.



Sorry.  I totally did not mean that to sound like I was blaming anyone.  I mean, this guy apparently had his vaccinations, is a diplomat, so, it's kinda understandable that he'd be traveling.  Absolutely no pointing fingers here at all.


----------



## Zardnaar

Went and visited a mate. Kinda of an anti vaxxer but he is getting the shot. 

 Lots of stuff going on but he's basically destroying his life.

 In other news vaccination rate apparently hit 97% to n Auckland the anti vax Facebook page is having a meltdown. My favorite one has realized they will lose job/visa and have to leave NZ. Was oblivious to the vaccine mandate coming into effect today.


----------



## Eltab

Update to an old post:
I have been making payments on my school loans, even though they are in Forbearance, to take advantage of 0% interest rates.  _I just paid off the second of three loans_.  With the extra cash this frees up, I should be able to finish off the last loan (even with interest turned on again) in a calendar year.


----------



## BookTenTiger

I know this is an unpopular, wild opinion, but I'm going to say it anyways.

I'm really tired of COVID and wish it, and its variations, were all gone.


----------



## Umbran

BookTenTiger said:


> I'm really tired of COVID and wish it, and its variations, were all gone.




So say we all.


----------



## Zardnaar

Rent a mob waving flags supporting Mr Meathead. 









						Covid-19: 'Shameless and very misguided' - Newmarket protesters cost local stores
					

An anti-vaxx protest that shut down the centre of Newmarket in Auckland may have cost local businesses hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost customers, says the local business association.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## CapnZapp

Omicron is cutting through the vaccinated like a hot knife through butter.

For the life of me I cannot understand why you would willingly attend conferences, dinners, parties or go shopping in person.

This pandemic has truly shattered my belief in humans as a reasonably logical and intellectual species.

People are stupid. Monstrously stupid. Dangerously and selfishly unthinking.

We're not even talking animal level of intelligence here. More like smart as a zombie.


----------



## GreyLord

CapnZapp said:


> Omicron is cutting through the vaccinated like a hot knife through butter.
> 
> For the life of me I cannot understand why you would willingly attend conferences, dinners, parties or go shopping in person.
> 
> This pandemic has truly shattered my belief in humans as a reasonably logical and intellectual species.
> 
> People are stupid. Monstrously stupid. Dangerously and selfishly unthinking.
> 
> We're not even talking animal level of intelligence here. More like smart as a zombie.




I had heard it was a big hitter in South Africa, but thought they were still studying it elsewhere and no conclusions had been made yet.

I know a few cases have been found in other nations, but I hadn't heard anything more than that yet.  Is there something more I haven't heard of?

(This could hit close to home for me as with vaccinations and such and the Delta variant finally dying down a little bit, I am supposed to be a Best Man at a wedding today in a few hours.  We'll be wearing masks and social distancing, as it's probably been one of the safer times to actually hold the wedding finally.  Just curious as if this was a bad idea for us to do this at this time).


----------



## Mirtek

CapnZapp said:


> For the life of me I cannot understand why you would willingly attend conferences, dinners, parties or go shopping in person.



Because being alive is more than just not being dead. Might as well not leave my home ever again, because a tile could drop on me or a car could run me over. On the other hand most accidents happen at home, so ...


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> Omicron is cutting through the vaccinated like a hot knife through butter.




I think that's a bit of an overstatement.  As of this morning, the World Health Organization reports _ZERO_ deaths so far from Omicron.  There are a little over 20 known cases in the US, only some of those are of vaccinated people, and they are all mild symptoms.



Mirtek said:


> Because being alive is more than just not being dead. Might as well not leave my home ever again, because a tile could drop on me or a car could run me over.




And, if it were just about you, that'd be fine.  But remember - statistically, it is still true that if you get covid, it is likely that _someone else dies_.  This isn't just about personal risk, it is about being a risk to other people who didn't get a say as to whether you were going to go to a convention or something.


----------



## Zardnaar

I'm not worried about omicron might even make me less worried if it's more infectious less deadly it's a good thing. 

 Used vaccine passport for first time. Local breakfast place requested a look.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> I'm not worried about omicron might even make me less worried if it's more infectious less deadly it's a good thing.
> 
> Used vaccine passport for first time. Local breakfast place requested a look.



Used mine a couple of times, over the last two days, visiting my mother in hospital. I have to demonstrate that I'm double vaxxed to see her, but the care staff don't. That's mind boggling.


----------



## RangerWickett

Something a podcast mentioned today that I hadn't considered: the Omicron variant didn't originate in a South Africa, so the reactions to have travel bans to there are kinda perverse. 

What it looks like happened is that it originated elsewhere, and it just happened to be from a case in South Africa that researchers isolated the genome and shared their findings. Other countries might also have had cases and not shared the info. The researchers in South Africa potentially saved thousands of lives by not keeping the data to themselves, but their country gets rewarded with travel bans because policy makers don't understand the research process.

It's a good reminder that we should be cautious of our assumptions.


----------



## Zardnaar

RangerWickett said:


> Something a podcast mentioned today that I hadn't considered: the Omicron variant didn't originate in a South Africa, so the reactions to have travel bans to there are kinda perverse.
> 
> What it looks like happened is that it originated elsewhere, and it just happened to be from a case in South Africa that researchers isolated the genome and shared their findings. Other countries might also have had cases and not shared the info. The researchers in South Africa potentially saved thousands of lives by not keeping the data to themselves, but their country gets rewarded with travel bans because policy makers don't understand the research process.
> 
> It's a good reminder that we should be cautious of our assumptions.




 Better to be safe than sorry. It's already out there can always open the borders later.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> Used mine a couple of times, over the last two days, visiting my mother in hospital. I have to demonstrate that I'm double vaxxed to see her, but the care staff don't. That's mind boggling.




 Those workers were some of the first to be included in vaccine mandate.


----------



## Hussar

Just saw in the UK, that they are requiring PCR tests within 48 hours AFTER arriving in the UK by flight, and you need to self-quarantine until the results are known.

WTF?  You can travel to your countries without a PCR test before getting on the plane?  The more I keep reading about the lack of restrictions in other countries the more horrified I get.  We haven't been able to enter the country without a PCR test in two years.  And that's everyone, citizen or not.  No PCR test, they don't even let you on the plane if that plane is going to Japan.

What the hell is wrong with other countries. This should have been standard practice a year ago.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Those workers were some of the first to be included in vaccine mandate.



Not in the Province of Ontario, in Canada. Here they passed a mandate that health care workers had to be vaccinated or would be fired, however, when they say how many health care workers were refusing, the government blinked and dropped the mandate.


----------



## RangerWickett

Zardnaar said:


> Better to be safe than sorry. It's already out there can always open the borders later.



The 1918 Flu was commonly called the Spanish Flu because all the other countries that got it were at war and so they censored reporting on the pandemic. Spain was neutral, and so it was the only country openly talking about the disease, and so everyone assumed it started there.

If the US in 1918 had implemented a travel ban against Spain to try to stop the disease from 'arriving,' it would have done nothing, since the epidemic had one of its earliest (perhaps FIRST) outbreaks in a military base in Kansas.

There wasn't a travel ban back then, but if the US _had_ wanted a travel ban, it could have banned folks from its own country leaving and spreading the flu. Or, more justly, it could have implemented restrictions on _all_ foreign travel, recognizing that by the time you detect a pattern of an epidemic, it's probably already spreading all over the place, and it's naive to pretend otherwise.

Today, we could fund ubiquitous testing at both ends of international journeys, maybe with an added one day isolation for visitors from places with known community spread of a variant of concern.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> So say we all.



This is the way.


----------



## Maxperson

CapnZapp said:


> Omicron is cutting through the vaccinated like a hot knife through butter.
> 
> For the life of me I cannot understand why you would willingly attend conferences, dinners, parties or go shopping in person.
> 
> This pandemic has truly shattered my belief in humans as a reasonably logical and intellectual species.
> 
> People are stupid. Monstrously stupid. Dangerously and selfishly unthinking.
> 
> We're not even talking animal level of intelligence here. More like smart as a zombie.



People are saying that Omicron's obscene infection rate coupled with it's mild symptoms(no deaths yet), might reduce the severity of the pandemic as it takes over.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Hussar said:


> Just saw in the UK, that they are requiring PCR tests within 48 hours AFTER arriving in the UK by flight, and you need to self-quarantine until the results are known.
> 
> WTF?  You can travel to your countries without a PCR test before getting on the plane?  The more I keep reading about the lack of restrictions in other countries the more horrified I get.  We haven't been able to enter the country without a PCR test in two years.  And that's everyone, citizen or not.  No PCR test, they don't even let you on the plane if that plane is going to Japan.
> 
> What the hell is wrong with other countries. This should have been standard practice a year ago.




The UK's handling of COVID is, on the whole, not appreciably better than the U.S. during the first year.  Maybe worse.


----------



## Eltab

RangerWickett said:


> Something a podcast mentioned today that I hadn't considered: the Omicron variant didn't originate in a South Africa, so the reactions to have travel bans to there are kinda perverse.



If I were in a southern Africa government, I would have announced an inbound travel ban except for medical personnel, and shut off outbound travel until I can figure out who has what.
Nobody else is going to have the resources to help me out if they get inundated with their own problems at home.


----------



## Zardnaar

RangerWickett said:


> The 1918 Flu was commonly called the Spanish Flu because all the other countries that got it were at war and so they censored reporting on the pandemic. Spain was neutral, and so it was the only country openly talking about the disease, and so everyone assumed it started there.
> 
> If the US in 1918 had implemented a travel ban against Spain to try to stop the disease from 'arriving,' it would have done nothing, since the epidemic had one of its earliest (perhaps FIRST) outbreaks in a military base in Kansas.
> 
> There wasn't a travel ban back then, but if the US _had_ wanted a travel ban, it could have banned folks from its own country leaving and spreading the flu. Or, more justly, it could have implemented restrictions on _all_ foreign travel, recognizing that by the time you detect a pattern of an epidemic, it's probably already spreading all over the place, and it's naive to pretend otherwise.
> 
> Today, we could fund ubiquitous testing at both ends of international journeys, maybe with an added one day isolation for visitors from places with known community spread of a variant of concern.




 I'm aware just saying rapid closing of borders can help until things become clearer. 

It may be to late but it might not be. 

  Worked for multiple countries with reasonably small death tolls.


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> People are saying that Omicron's obscene infection rate coupled with it's mild symptoms(no deaths yet), might reduce the severity of the pandemic as it takes over.




 Omnicron might be the solution. 

 Generally these things last around 3 years and the virus mutates into something less deadly. 

  See every plague ever.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Generally these things last around 3 years and the virus mutates into something less deadly.
> 
> See every plague ever.




That is deeply and seriously incorrect.  

Measles, rabies, polio, malaria, actual plague (which has three forms - bubonic, pneumonic, and septicemic - all caused by the same organism), and smallpox - none of these has mutated into something less deadly.  Malaria still kills 400,000 people a year.  The rest have been beaten back by improved hygiene and/or vaccination.  We can AIDS to this list, and ebola as well, come to think of it.

It is floated that covid-19 might go this route, because it looks like others cornonaviruses have in the past.  And yes, this seems to happen to influenza strains.  But is it _NOT_ a general, predictable behavior that we can depend on.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> That is deeply and seriously incorrect.
> 
> Measles, rabies, polio, malaria, actual plague (which has three forms - bubonic, pneumonic, and septicemic - all caused by the same organism), and smallpox - none of these has mutated into something less deadly.  Malaria still kills 400,000 people a year.  The rest have been beaten back by improved hygiene and/or vaccination.  We can AIDS to this list, and ebola as well, come to think of it.
> 
> It is floated that covid-19 might go this route, because it looks like others cornonaviruses have in the past.  And yes, this seems to happen to influenza strains.  But is it _NOT_ a general, predictable behavior that we can depend on.



The only reason Ebola’s death rate droped from 90%+ to something around 50% is due to the worlds first Rw deployment of an mRNA vaccine.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> That is deeply and seriously incorrect.
> 
> Measles, rabies, polio, malaria, actual plague (which has three forms - bubonic, pneumonic, and septicemic - all caused by the same organism), and smallpox - none of these has mutated into something less deadly.  Malaria still kills 400,000 people a year.  The rest have been beaten back by improved hygiene and/or vaccination.  We can AIDS to this list, and ebola as well, come to think of it.
> 
> It is floated that covid-19 might go this route, because it looks like others cornonaviruses have in the past.  And yes, this seems to happen to influenza strains.  But is it _NOT_ a general, predictable behavior that we can depend on.




 Trying to be an optimist. Media likes sensationalism with new Covid varieties. Remember Mu? 

 In any event what else  can one do? Already vaccinated and more or less avoiding big events. Avoiding plague pits and plague rats. Just watching it creep down the Island expect delta to be here by Christmas.


----------



## briggart

RangerWickett said:


> Something a podcast mentioned today that I hadn't considered: the Omicron variant didn't originate in a South Africa, so the reactions to have travel bans to there are kinda perverse.
> 
> What it looks like happened is that it originated elsewhere, and it just happened to be from a case in South Africa that researchers isolated the genome and shared their findings. Other countries might also have had cases and not shared the info. The researchers in South Africa potentially saved thousands of lives by not keeping the data to themselves, but their country gets rewarded with travel bans because policy makers don't understand the research process.
> 
> It's a good reminder that we should be cautious of our assumptions.



My understanding is that we don't know where it came from, and we don't have conclusive evidence showing it did not originated in southern Africa. The first cases detected were in Botswana and South Africa within a couple of days from each other, and most of the early cases detected outside of Africa could be linked to travel to Africa which, combined with the reported high transmission rate, suggests it came from that part of the globe.


----------



## CapnZapp

Maxperson said:


> People are saying that Omicron's obscene infection rate coupled with it's mild symptoms(no deaths yet), might reduce the severity of the pandemic as it takes over.



Key word: "might"

Not saying this applies to you, but if you're willing to bet your life (as well as the lives of your relatives, and the lives of those patients that don't get care because hospitals are swamped), you are exemplifying my previous post.


----------



## Mirtek

Umbran said:


> And, if it were just about you, that'd be fine.  But remember - statistically, it is still true that if you get covid, it is likely that _someone else dies_.  This isn't just about personal risk, it is about being a risk to other people who didn't get a say as to whether you were going to go to a convention or something.



That's brings it back to the gernal issue of how much compliance can be required.

If we take it to the extreme, we're killing each other (or at least someone) just by reading/posting here on Enworld. The polution from the energy that we're consuming here becoming part of the overall pollution that is causing the premature deaths of ~9 millionen people each year (depending on which static you prefer).

At the end of the day the local laws are the standard to which we are required to adhere and they do set the bars how much we're allowed to hurt each other. And we are hurting each other just by existing, it's only a matter which degree is currently deemed acceptable.

As long it's legally allowed to go to full cinemas, bars, clubs, restaurants, then I will do so as I please. As will million others.

Friday me and some pals had a great night out, scheduled shortly because we were concerned it to be the last opportunity before the new restrictions are in force on Saturday. 

Technically all bars, clubs, etc. can still open in Germany, but since Saturday you also need a negative test <24h even if fully vaccinated. Many locations are now closing on their own because they just see no way that enough vaccinated people will bother with the logistics of that (self tests don't count, a certified testcenter is required) to get the minimum number of people needed to just break even.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Trying to be an optimist.




Maybe don't say stuff that is flatly not true to support your optimism, hm?


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Maybe don't say stuff that is flatly not true to support your optimism, hm?




 Should have stuck an IMHO on it. I think that's the way it's gonna end up. 

 Could be wrong.


----------



## Hussar

Mirtek said:


> Friday me and some pals had a great night out, scheduled shortly because we were concerned it to be the last opportunity before the new restrictions are in force on Saturday.



See, I just don't get that.

"It's not illegal, so, I'll do what I please" just seems wrong.  I live in a country where there are no mandates, the laws haven't really stepped in at all.  Bars had to close early for a couple of months was about it.  And that was only bars.  Restaurants were fine.  

Which means I could go out for a really, really good steak last Friday with a few students for lunch and not be terribly concerned.  We masked up the entire time except when eating.  The servers and the chef were masked 100% of the time.  Everyone on the street was masked.  It's just what you do.  

Needing the government to tell me not to do something before I'll actually do the right thing is bad.


----------



## Ryujin

Well, anyway, here's hoping that Omicron is the Cow Pox of Covid.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> See, I just don't get that.
> 
> "It's not illegal, so, I'll do what I please" just seems wrong.  I live in a country where there are no mandates, the laws haven't really stepped in at all.  Bars had to close early for a couple of months was about it.  And that was only bars.  Restaurants were fine.
> 
> Which means I could go out for a really, really good steak last Friday with a few students for lunch and not be terribly concerned.  We masked up the entire time except when eating.  The servers and the chef were masked 100% of the time.  Everyone on the street was masked.  It's just what you do.
> 
> Needing the government to tell me not to do something before I'll actually do the right thing is bad.



There’s whole books written about individualistic vs communalist if societies.  The USA and Japan are often cited as the polar examples.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s whole books written about individualistic vs communalist if societies.  The USA and Japan are often cited as the polar examples.




 Pretty much. 

 We're somewhere in the middle here but still inherited the "don't tell me what to do" and binge drinking aspects of British culture.


----------



## J.Quondam

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s whole books written about individualistic vs communalist if societies.  The USA and Japan are often cited as the polar examples.



The last few years have left me believing that huge swaths of the US have strayed far beyond "individualistic society" and into unabashed "cult of me, myself, and i" territory.
I imagine that applies to certain other countries, as well, but this is the one I know.


----------



## Mallus

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s whole books written about individualistic vs communalist if societies.  The USA and Japan are often cited as the polar examples.



I’m not sure ‘individualistic’ describes us anymore. Getting more of an ‘ornery death cult’ vibe.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Hussar said:


> See, I just don't get that.
> 
> "It's not illegal, so, I'll do what I please" just seems wrong.  I live in a country where there are no mandates, the laws haven't really stepped in at all.  Bars had to close early for a couple of months was about it.  And that was only bars.  Restaurants were fine.
> 
> Which means I could go out for a really, really good steak last Friday with a few students for lunch and not be terribly concerned.  We masked up the entire time except when eating.  The servers and the chef were masked 100% of the time.  Everyone on the street was masked.  It's just what you do.
> 
> Needing the government to tell me not to do something before I'll actually do the right thing is bad.



Some people seem to conflate "legality" with "morality" quite often. Whether or not something's legal doesn't determine whether or not it's right to do that thing. And illegal things are sometimes entirely harmless, or even potentially beneficial. I mean, the fact that there are hundreds of countries, all with different legal systems (even more if you count the different states in the USA, and other countries with similar systems, like Canada and Australia), kinda proves that legality and morality aren't synonymous.


----------



## Mirtek

Hussar said:


> Everyone on the street was masked.  It's just what you do.



Here almost no one on the street it masked except in the limited areas where it's required. If you go through a shopping street or pedestrian zone you see masks doffed the moment people step outside of a shop. And usually just graped with the full hand and then crumpled into the pocket until needed again, so it's pretty clear no one if truly concerned about something that might be on that mask

That's start of Karneval season in Cologne less than 1 month ago.

(And yes, there is  discussion and agitation about events like these in Germany)


----------



## Hussar

I know.  I see it on TV and whatnot.  It just absolutely baffles me.  And frustrates me to no end.  I WANT to travel again.  I'm sick to death of this crap.  I haven't been further than 100 km from my house in two freaking years.  And it never seems to end because people simply refuse to do simple things.  Grrr.


----------



## Imaculata

Same thing here in the Netherlands. People only mask up if it is required. As soon as the mandate is gone, so are the masks and all the social distancing.

The Dutch government has made such a mess of things. They dropped all rules for a few months for no good reason, and instantly everyone except me stopped masking up. I even saw a guy at the supermarket coughing none stop, over pretty much everything, and no mask. It made me furious, and I regret not speaking my mind. No one seems to care about anyone except themselves. And whereever I go, I see anti-vaxer stickers on traffic lights and signs, about how "the government is lying to us". Fortunately, there are also people that take that anti-vax crap down.


----------



## Mirtek

So the rule requiring that vaccinated people need a certified test less than 24h old to enter any Restaurant/bar/etc. is already crumbling after being in effect for just 2 days.

Even before it took effect the first state diverged by announcing that it would not be required of people who already have the booster. A 2nd state followed within mere hours of the first ones announcement. 

This morning I heard another state is already dropping the test requirement for all vaccinated people,  even without booster

So the state governments were crying for a federal conference to harmonize rules for weeks, only to immediately disgard the commonly agreed rules within days.

Sad fact: this has happened multiple times over the course of the pandemic.

I wonder why the central government even bothers to meet with the state governments anymore. It's s waste of time and tax money


----------



## Umbran

Mirtek said:


> so it's pretty clear no one if truly concerned about something that might be on that mask





And, for the most part, there's no need to be.  Unless you are wearing a KN-95 or better, the mask is far better at protecting the public from you, than protecting you from the public.


----------



## Umbran

Got my Moderna booster and flu shot this morning.  Hoping side effects will be minimal.


----------



## Umbran

New York City has decided to stop screwing around:

_"All private sector employers in New York City will now be required to implement a Covid-19 vaccine mandate by December 27, the city's mayor Bill De Blasio announced Monday."_









						New York City to mandate Covid vaccines for all private sector workers
					

All private sector employers in New York City will now be required to implement a Covid-19 vaccine mandate by December 27, the city's mayor Bill de Blasio announced Monday.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Mikeythorn

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s whole books written about individualistic vs communalist if societies.  The USA and Japan are often cited as the polar examples.



Pulitzer-prize winning historian David Hackett-Fischer wrote a wonderful book called “Fairness and Freedom” about how differences in the way New Zealand and the US were settled led to very different ethical outlooks. One of the central theses is that everyone regards both fairness and freedom as important, but that when those two principles come into conflict (and the pandemic is providing some great examples of that) then societies generally choose one as being the most important. He examines why many in the US tend to choose freedom, while many in NZ choose fairness. His rationales are truly fascinating, and certainly had the ring of truth to them from my perspective (as a New Zealander who has spent time in the US).

For example, one of his rationales is the landscape. If you were a settler in the US and you had a failing out with other people, you could just head a bit further west. If you were a settler in New Zealand you were part of a fairly homogenous community (Scots in Dunedin, English in Wellington, Irish in Auckland) locked into one location by mountains or the sea, so couldn’t afford to fall out with anybody - instead you had no choice but to be part of the community.


----------



## Umbran

Mikeythorn said:


> Pulitzer-prize winning historian David Hackett-Fischer wrote a wonderful book called “Fairness and Freedom” about how differences in the way New Zealand and the US were settled led to very different ethical outlooks.




Yes, but, that seems to have been published in 2012.  I think the behavior of many in the US is more dominated by recent deliberate politics than general philosophies.  The politics might be taking advantage of the philosophy, but we'd probably have had much less of an issue without the politics.


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> Yes, but, that seems to have been published in 2012.  I think the behavior of many in the US is more dominated by recent deliberate politics than general philosophies.  The politics might be taking advantage of the philosophy, but we'd probably have had much less of an issue without the politics.



Maybe? But the politics reflect differences in the broader American society, not just partisanship, that were around in 2012 as well.
Moreover, people being anti-mask mandates isn’t new. They cropped up in the 1918 influenza pandemic too.


----------



## CleverNickName

The effects that politics (and political affiliation) have had on this pandemic cannot be overstated in America.

I had an argument with my brother this weekend about the Covid-19 vaccines.  "They need to stop calling it a 'vaccine'," he said.  "Vaccines _cure _an illness, like measles and smallpox, and (the Covid-19 vaccine) doesn't cure anything!  They need to start calling it a 'shot,' like they do for the flu shot every year, because it's giving people the wrong impression."  I tried to explain how vaccines work, and how Covid-19 is different from influenza or measles, but he was having none of it.  All of his sources were to the contrary.

This is a real argument that I had with an intelligent, educated, close family relative.  We grew up in the same household, went to the same school. The biggest difference between us is political: he is a Conservative and I'm not.  Unfortunately, that distinction makes a huge difference in the types of information he is exposed to, the "experts" he is willing to listen to, and the advice he is encouraged to follow.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Umbran said:


> Yes, but, that seems to have been published in 2012.  I think the behavior of many in the US is more dominated by recent deliberate politics than general philosophies.  The politics might be taking advantage of the philosophy, but we'd probably have had much less of an issue without the politics.



But where did those politics come from? I think the points made in the book are still relevant today, as current politics seems to be amplifying philosophical viewpoints that were already deeply baked in 100 years and more ago. Eg, many modern views around gun ownership seem to be an evolution of much older ideas.


----------



## Umbran

Mikeythorn said:


> But where did those politics come from?




So, I can't really answer this on these boards.  But I don't expect the politics originated in an _honest expression_ of the philosophy.  And that's all I'll say about that.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Umbran said:


> So, I can't really answer this on these boards.  But I don't expect the politics originated in an _honest expression_ of the philosophy.  And that's all I'll say about that.



EDIT: [Example using Nazis deleted]

EDIT: and in a feeble attempt to make this relevant to the thread, I think some of the current anti-vax sentiment may well have its root in mistrust of government and authority - which is also something that can be traced to earlier roots.


----------



## Baron Opal II

CleverNickName said:


> I had an argument with my brother this weekend about the Covid-19 vaccines.  "They need to stop calling it a 'vaccine'," he said.  "Vaccines _cure _an illness, like measles and smallpox, and (the Covid-19 vaccine) doesn't cure anything!  They need to start calling it a 'shot,' like they do for the flu shot every year, because it's giving people the wrong impression."  I tried to explain how vaccines work, and how Covid-19 is different from influenza or measles, but he was having none of it.  All of his sources were to the contrary.




FWIW, all vaccines have breakthrough cases.


----------



## Ryujin

CleverNickName said:


> The effects that politics (and political affiliation) have had on this pandemic cannot be overstated in America.
> 
> I had an argument with my brother this weekend about the Covid-19 vaccines.  "They need to stop calling it a 'vaccine'," he said.  "Vaccines _cure _an illness, like measles and smallpox, and (the Covid-19 vaccine) doesn't cure anything!  They need to start calling it a 'shot,' like they do for the flu shot every year, because it's giving people the wrong impression."  I tried to explain how vaccines work, and how Covid-19 is different from influenza or measles, but he was having none of it.  All of his sources were to the contrary.
> 
> This is a real argument that I had with an intelligent, educated, close family relative.  We grew up in the same household, went to the same school. The biggest difference between us is political: he is a Conservative and I'm not.  Unfortunately, that distinction makes a huge difference in the types of information he is exposed to, the "experts" he is willing to listen to, and the advice he is encouraged to follow.



The really sad thing is that those "alternate sources" (see also "alternate facts") exist. I had a little disagreement with some otherwise intelligent people who cited sources stating that the partial spike protein used in the mRNA vaccines reproduces in the body, causing clotting, "... because that's how it works." I just put down my 'knife' and backed away slowly.


----------



## Ryujin

Baron Opal II said:


> FWIW, all vaccines have breakthrough cases.



Some years back I had a debate with an anti-vaxxer who claimed to be a virologist. He cited a case in Quebec in which the entire population of a town was vaccinated against measles  (fully 100% coverage), however, there was a measles outbreak among the vaccinated. It was a town of a few thousand and there were something like 20-30 cases. Yup, sounds about right, but he was using it to claim that vaccines aren't effective.


----------



## J.Quondam

Ryujin said:


> Some years back I had a debate with an anti-vaxxer who claimed to be a virologist. He cited a case in Quebec in which the entire population of a town was vaccinated against measles  (fully 100% coverage), however, there was a measles outbreak among the vaccinated. It was a town of a few thousand and there were something like 20-30 cases. Yup, sounds about right, but he was using it to claim that vaccines aren't effective.



The most pernicious lies are the ones based on a grain of truth.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

CleverNickName said:


> I had an argument with my brother this weekend about the Covid-19 vaccines.  "They need to stop calling it a 'vaccine'," he said.  "Vaccines _cure _an illness, like measles and smallpox, and (the Covid-19 vaccine) doesn't cure anything!  They need to start calling it a 'shot,' like they do for the flu shot every year, because it's giving people the wrong impression."  I tried to explain how vaccines work, and how Covid-19 is different from influenza or measles, but he was having none of it.  All of his sources were to the contrary.



Yeeks.

Vaccines don’t CURE anything because they’re not therapeutics.  They prevent you from contacting an illness or reduce the severity of your symptoms, but they will not be administered if you’re suffering from that illness.  And sometimes, not if you’re sick from ANY illness.

(Which, of course, makes them the same kind of pharmaceutical as a flu shot.)

Last I checked, current practice is that you have to wait 90 days to receive a Covid vaccination after you’ve been diagnosed as having it.  Not a cure, to be certain.


----------



## Umbran

Mikeythorn said:


> At the risk of Godwining the debate




1) This is not a debate.  A couple of opinions have been raised.  That doesn't make it a debate.
2) Next time, resist the urge to mention Nazis.  Just, don't.  It isn't worth it.


----------



## Mikeythorn

Apologies. I am happy to go back and delete the comment.


----------



## Zardnaar

Double vax rates hit 90% in Southern DHB. 

 University is bringing in vaccine mandates for students. 









						University of Otago brings in sweeping vaccine mandate
					

The University of Otago has confirmed Covid-19 vaccinations, or government-approved exemptions, will be compulsory for all staff, students,...




					www.odt.co.nz


----------



## Hussar

It's been weird here.  The universities have been mostly closed to students for the past two years.  Only in this last semester have students come back, and even then, I'm still teaching remotely.  None of hte other schools are like this.  My kids haven't missed a day since April 2020.  But uni?  Closed tight.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Hussar said:


> It's been weird here.  The universities have been mostly closed to students for the past two years.  Only in this last semester have students come back, and even then, I'm still teaching remotely.  None of hte other schools are like this.  My kids haven't missed a day since April 2020.  But uni?  Closed tight.




Don't remember where you're at, Hussar, but universities are actually at higher risk in some ways than elementary schools in the U.S. because you're liable to have students coming in from vastly separated areas.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mikeythorn said:


> Pulitzer-prize winning historian David Hackett-Fischer wrote a wonderful book called “Fairness and Freedom” about how differences in the way New Zealand and the US were settled led to very different ethical outlooks. One of the central theses is that everyone regards both fairness and freedom as important, but that when those two principles come into conflict (and the pandemic is providing some great examples of that) then societies generally choose one as being the most important. He examines why many in the US tend to choose freedom, while many in NZ choose fairness. His rationales are truly fascinating, and certainly had the ring of truth to them from my perspective (as a New Zealander who has spent time in the US).
> 
> For example, one of his rationales is the landscape. If you were a settler in the US and you had a failing out with other people, you could just head a bit further west. If you were a settler in New Zealand you were part of a fairly homogenous community (Scots in Dunedin, English in Wellington, Irish in Auckland) locked into one location by mountains or the sea, so couldn’t afford to fall out with anybody - instead you had no choice but to be part of the community.




 Way I understand it is more who went where. More Scots came to NZ proportionally. Scotland had very progressive and educated enlightenment. 

 By 19th century standards. 

 In America they kind of recreated the aristocracy. Big plantations and landed gentry in all but name. Here they broke up the big landowners in the 19th century. 

 More egalitarian, social laboratory for the UK.

 Most of the other differences are basic things like how schools and cities are funded. More centralised and due to how things are funded we don't really have rust belt type areas and the regions are reasonably prosperous.


----------



## Cadence

Not gaming wise, but I get the fun with the Cub Scout pack (1st-5th grade) I'm running of deciding how to bring up what to do about masks.  As of December 1st the council (scout governing body for our part of the state) changed to not requiring masks  and just recommending them for the unvaxxed.   Not many cases in the local schools at all, Omicron hadn't hit yet when they probably decided on it,  and we're in a conservative county in a conservative state so I'm not surprised.  It was just nice not having to personally be the one requiring it before. I didn't bring up the change in council policy to the other parents yet since we only had last nights meeting and one more next Monday until the new year.

This fall we had one family stop coming and another not join because of the mask requirement.  I'm guessing a few just saw it was required by the council and so it doesn't grate on them, but if we keep it just on my say so it might.   And if we get rid of it and either Omicron is bad or the case count goes up we'll lose some others.  (Not sure how many are vaxxed/unvaxxed, so hopefully won't lose any of them or their family members in the RIP sense).  Bleh.


----------



## Mannahnin

My sympathies, Cadence.

NH was hit relatively lightly by the first two waves, and folks got complacent.  So now in this new spike, naturally, we have the highest per capita new case rate.  :/  Our Governor definitely won't put a mask mandate back on since he lifted it in April (ahead of other New England states).  Complacency and politics.  Fighting a disease shouldn't be a matter for partisanship.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Way I understand it is more who went where. More Scots came to NZ proportionally. Scotland had very progressive and educated enlightenment.
> 
> By 19th century standards.
> 
> In America they kind of recreated the aristocracy. Big plantations and landed gentry in all but name. Here they broke up the big landowners in the 19th century.
> 
> More egalitarian, social laboratory for the UK.
> 
> Most of the other differences are basic things like how schools and cities are funded. More centralised and due to how things are funded we don't really have rust belt type areas and the regions are reasonably prosperous.



Well, there's other issues as well.  The fact that your country is smaller than some US states does make centralization somewhat easier.  Never minding less than a tenth of the population.  

People tend to forget just how freaking big the US is.  Not just in area, but, population.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Well, there's other issues as well.  The fact that your country is smaller than some US states does make centralization somewhat easier.  Never minding less than a tenth of the population.
> 
> People tend to forget just how freaking big the US is.  Not just in area, but, population.




 One can still look at smaller areas of the states NZ similar in size to Colorado. 

 There's some systematic problems in USA that basically can't be fixed. It's not the usual suspects that are popular online but basic things like infrastructure. 

 Can't be to judgemental though the disfunction here is a different flavour but it exists. Basically boils down to 40 years of don't do anything significant and kick that can down the street. 

  They're running out of street though. 
 Half expecting a Greek style meltdown next year or localized GFC. Still haven't really had anything resembling a riot since 1981.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> There's some systematic problems in USA that basically can't be fixed. It's not the usual suspects that are popular online but basic things like infrastructure.




Our infrastructure issues are eminently fixable.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Our infrastructure issues are eminently fixable.




 Some of it is bridges etc. 

 But the way suburban sprawl happens seems to be unfixable except on a hypothetical level. 

 Basically you would have to change your society fundamentallu from the ground up. That's not gonna happen anytime soon. 

 Things like roads and bridges are doable and the work required on the Mississippi, ports things like that while big ticket items are comparatively easy if expensive.

 I'm talking about how your cities run and are funded. Not just the rust belt but California, Seattle, Midwest. How the local governments expand them issue consents etc. 

 Could you fix it theoretically yes but I put it on par with rewriting your constitution, changing your culture more or less over night, world peace, getting your vax rae up to 90%  or NZ militarizing and annexing California.


----------



## Hussar

You point to California.  California's economy absolutely dwarfs your entire country's GDP.  Granted, it dwarfs pretty much everyone's but, sure.  

I get the notion of flinging poop at Americans.  Hey, I'm Canadian.  This is virtually a national pastime for us.  But, for all the things you certainly can poop on the Americans for, this seems like a really strange one.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> You point to California.  California's economy absolutely dwarfs your entire country's GDP.  Granted, it dwarfs pretty much everyone's but, sure.
> 
> I get the notion of flinging poop at Americans.  Hey, I'm Canadian.  This is virtually a national pastime for us.  But, for all the things you certainly can poop on the Americans for, this seems like a really strange one.




 It's not a size thing but with Covid response it's cultural. 

 You can't fix that in a hurry. 

 You can't eliminate Covid in the USA because of well everything. Even if you had the political will and buy in you have skid row in LA and Tenderloin in SF. 

 It's systematic and tied into fundamentals of the country. 

 Covids causing my country to go to the cliff edge as well but once again I don't think they can do anything about it because if the fundamentals.

This was 6 months ago. 









						NZ has 'most bubbly house market' in the world, according to Bloomberg
					

Real estate prices around the world are flashing bubble warnings and New Zealand is at the top of the list, according to Bloomberg Economics.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




Last 3 months average house price went up $114k, 30% overalll.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> But the way suburban sprawl happens seems to be unfixable except on a hypothetical level.




Folks say "surburban sprawl is a problem", without recognizing two things - 1) that "the problem of suburban sprawl" is nto, in fact, one single problem, but a constellation of issues that have been associated with suburban living, many of which are nt so much problems as value judgements, and 2) that _any way_ you try to house tens of millions of people raises issues.  Urban sprawl is also a problem.  Having everyone housed only in rural areas is also a problem.  So, this is glib, poorly defined, and is not specifically an American problem.

There is no way to meet basic needs on the scale of human populations - housing, food, power, clothing - that doesn't raise difficulties.  However, difficulties could be mitigated by intelligently chosen modest changes.



Zardnaar said:


> Basically you would have to change your society fundamentallu from the ground up. That's not gonna happen anytime soon.




Sorry, Zardnaar - but most of the things people point to as "problems of suburban (or urban) sprawl" are basically legacies of uninformed zoning laws.  Update zoning laws with new understanding of urban planning, and the issues will work themselves out over time.



Zardnaar said:


> Could you fix it theoretically yes but I put it on par with rewriting your constitution, changing your culture more or less over night




So, if you just drop the entirely unnecessary "overnight" bit that you unilaterally imposed for no discernible reason - and recognize that societal change is a generational thing - the impossibility vanishes in a puff of smoke.

Since you didn't actually define the problem you're speaking of clearly, it is very, very easy to assess the difficulty as beyond reach.  Come back with well defined, specific issues, and then maybe we can talk.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Folks say "surburban sprawl is a problem", without recognizing two things - 1) that "the problem of suburban sprawl" is nto, in fact, one single problem, but a constellation of issues that have been associated with suburban living, many of which are nt so much problems as value judgements, and 2) that _any way_ you try to house tens of millions of people raises issues.  Urban sprawl is also a problem.  Having everyone housed only in rural areas is also a problem.  So, this is glib, poorly defined, and is not specifically an American problem.
> 
> There is no way to meet basic needs on the scale of human populations - housing, food, power, clothing - that doesn't raise difficulties.  However, difficulties could be mitigated by intelligently chosen modest changes.
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry, Zardnaar - but most of the things people point to as "problems of suburban (or urban) sprawl" are basically legacies of uninformed zoning laws.  Update zoning laws with new understanding of urban planning, and the issues will work themselves out over time.
> 
> 
> 
> So, if you just drop the entirely unnecessary "overnight" bit that you unilaterally imposed for no discernible reason - and recognize that societal change is a generational thing - the impossibility vanishes in a puff of smoke.
> 
> Since you didn't actually define the problem you're speaking of clearly, it is very, very easy to assess the difficulty as beyond reach.  Come back with well defined, specific issues, and then maybe we can talk.



I'm up to trying arcologies out, so that we can stop converting our best farmland to lawns. They have issues too, but odds are we'd be able to feed people.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ryujin said:


> I'm up to trying arcologies out, so that we can stop converting our best farmland to lawns. They have issues too, but odds are we'd be able to feed people.



From what I read, humanity currently produces enough food annually to feed everyone.  The root causes of hunger are largely political and logistical.  We waste a lot of it by letting it spoil in our refrigerators and pantries.  Some spoils because it can’t get to market on time…or profitably.  Some food doesn’t get to market because it’s not aesthetically pleasing. Some donated food gets refused, for a variety of reasons, some foolish, some malicious.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Ryujin said:


> I'm up to trying arcologies out, so that we can stop converting our best farmland to lawns. They have issues too, but odds are we'd be able to feed people.



Lawns are honestly _terrible_, invasive things.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FitzTheRuke said:


> Lawns are honestly _terrible_, invasive things.



They way most do them?*  Yeah, probably.

But there’s ways to make them better.  Some people around here have xeriscaped their properties in beautiful ways.  A few houses around here have gone the opposite route, and have planted their properties to the ppint that it almost looks like a forest.  Their heating bills must be tiny, compared to their neighbors 




* including ours, for the most part, so I’m not preaching from a place of moral superiority


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> From what I read, humanity currently produces enough food annually to feed everyone.  The root causes of hunger are largely political and logistical.  We waste a lot of it by letting it spoil in our refrigerators and pantries.  Some spoils because it can’t get to market on time…or profitably.  Some food doesn’t get to market because it’s not aesthetically pleasing. Some donated food gets refused, for a variety of reasons, some foolish, some malicious.



Being able to use farmland (or greenhouses) immediately adjacent to the population centre handles a lot of the issues involved with food. the amount of food that goes bad in supermarkets and restaurants that gets tossed out is rather horrifying. If your fresh stock was a 20 minute request away though...


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> Lawns are honestly _terrible_, invasive things.




There are some really nice wildflowers native to New England, that at full height still don't violate most lawn ordinances.  I have been considering the possibility of turning my lawn into a meadow.  Unfortunatley, the process of getting the decades of grass _out_ of the lawn is at least two of: long, ugly, and expensive.


----------



## Ryujin

Moss is also a viable option. Far less water consumption.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Being able to use farmland (or greenhouses) immediately adjacent to the population centre handles a lot of the issues involved with food. the amount of food that goes bad in supermarkets and restaurants that gets tossed out is rather horrifying. If your fresh stock was a 20 minute request away though...




So, shortening travel time reduces shipping costs (though, if you are using greenhouses, you are replacing shipping with other costs), and can improve ripenesss of your food.  It does not address the waste issues, because that is primarily about how human customers interact with grocery stores, restaurants, and their refrigerators.  

The "ugly produce" line is, as I understand it, far overstated.  The folks who can and process vegetables will be more than happy to take your ugly tomatoes.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Moss is also a viable option. Far less water consumption.




Moss doesn't do well in full sunlight.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Unfortunatley, the process of getting the decades of grass _out_ of the lawn is at least two of: long, ugly, and expensive.



Goats (I think) will eat greenery down to the dirt.  There’s a growing number of businesses that use goats to “mow” lawns and green spaces- check your local phone book!

After they crop the hell out of it, give your lawn a good tilling.

(I had to do the opposite with he backyard of our previous house.  Lots of bare dirt under big trees, with soil hard as clay.  I used a hoe and pitchfork to manually break up the dirt and then reseeded it with a low-light tolerant grass.  Damn near killed myself, DID kill the tools.)


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Goats.




Alas, not being zoned for livestock, that would lead to ugly, long, and expensive legal issues


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I edited above- I was thinking more of “goat rental.”

The owners bring the goats in for the day, take ‘em home full.


----------



## CleverNickName

Rent-A-Goat is awesome.  They are excellent for clearing brambles, thorns, blackberries, and ivy off of steep slopes, where mechanical removal would be very difficult and expensive.  They set up a temporary fence around the area, lock a few goats inside, and leave them for a few days.  For large areas, they deploy a whole herd, complete with goat herders...450 goats can clear an acre a day, according to the website.  All the brambles are completely gone, roots and all, and the goats are fat and happy.

My company has used them in the past to clear out blackberry brambles from an abandoned house.  It had an overgrown,  steeply-sloped backyard (nearly a 1:1 slope) with old lumber, appliances, and other junk all tangled up in it.  Rent A Goat came by, set up a temporary chain link fence, and put five goats inside with a little pop-up shelter and water trough.  By the end of the week, that slope was _completely barren._  And fertilized.  It would have taken twice as long, and cost twice as much, to clear that backyard otherwise.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> After they crop the hell out of it, give your lawn a good tilling.




That won't do it.  More accurately, it would require several seasons - the space has been lawn for approximately a century.  The soil itself is _loaded_ with seeds and viable root systems.  Converting it requires either scraping off and replacing the topsoil, or keeping it barren (and likely covered) for a couple of seasons to deal with seeds and regrowth.


----------



## Mannahnin

Ryujin said:


> Being able to use farmland (or greenhouses) immediately adjacent to the population centre handles a lot of the issues involved with food. the amount of food that goes bad in supermarkets and restaurants that gets tossed out is rather horrifying. If your fresh stock was a 20 minute request away though...



Thankfully not as much gets wasted as some folks think.  Supermarkets operate on too narrow profit margins to throw much out.  Chickens getting close to the sell-by date get repurposed as rotisserie, "ugly" vegetables get used to make ready-to-eat salsas, guacamole, (etc.)  where the appearance doesn't matter.  Other "bad" produce gets fed to livestock or plowed back into the fields, etc.










						A scientist on the myth of ugly produce and food waste
					

Startups Misfits Market and Imperfect Produce say they’re rescuing food that would otherwise be wasted. Sarah Taber is calling naughty word.




					www.vox.com


----------



## CleverNickName

Umbran said:


> That won't do it.  More accurately, it would require several seasons - the space has been lawn for approximately a century.  The soil itself is _loaded_ with seeds and viable root systems.  Converting it requires either scraping off and replacing the topsoil, or keeping it barren (and likely covered) for a couple of seasons to deal with seeds and regrowth.



Ooof.  Yeah, the goats can't help you with the seeds in the soil.  (They will dig out and devour any viable root systems, though.  I've seen them uproot tree saplings.)  You'd need to put down a heavy mulch or plastic sheeting for a whole year to smother and rot the seeds that are left behind.  Or you could go the easy route:  let those seeds sprout, then bring in the goats again before they reseed themselves.


----------



## Ryujin

CleverNickName said:


> Ooof.  Yeah, the goats can't help you with the seeds in the soil.  (They will dig out and devour any viable root systems, though.  I've seen them uproot tree saplings.)  You'd need to put down a heavy mulch or plastic sheeting for a whole year to smother and rot the seeds that are left behind.  Or you could go the easy route:  let those seeds sprout, then bring in the goats again before they reseed themselves.



I've seen them eat license plates and bumper shrouds off cars. My car, to be specific. They would do a pretty thorough job in all but that particular case.


----------



## Umbran

CleverNickName said:


> let those seeds sprout, then bring in the goats again before they reseed themselves.




So, two seasons of my suburban lawn being mud, plastic, and goats.

I don't think my neighbors would be amused.

My wife would like the goats, though.  If we could get some cute pygmy goats for it (it isn't a big lawn) she'd be absolutely thrilled.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> So, two seasons of my suburban lawn being mud, plastic, and goats.
> 
> I don't think my neighbors would be amused.
> 
> My wife would like the goats, though.  If we could get some cute pygmy goats for it (it isn't a big lawn) she'd be absolutely thrilled.



They ARE cute little bastards!

(And every bit as goat-y as their larger cousins.)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Speaking of relatives…

Apparently, omicron has a half-brother:








						So-Called “Stealth” Omicron Offshoot Identified By Scientists In Three Countries
					

Scientists have identified a new Covid-19 lineage responsible for a number of recent Covid cases in South Africa, Australia and Canada that displays “many of the defining mutations of B.1.1.529 (Omicron) [but does] not have the full set. These cases also have “a number of their own unique...




					www.yahoo.com
				




Only 7 cases discovered so far, but it apparently is different enough from omicron that it evades the variant-specific tests being used to find omicron.


----------



## CleverNickName

Umbran said:


> So, two seasons of my suburban lawn being mud, plastic, and goats.
> 
> I don't think my neighbors would be amused.



No.  They certainly would not.  Goats REEK, and they are noisy as hell.  And like you said earlier, you might have to fight with zoning restrictions, homeowner's associations, _poachers,_ you name it.

But there are benefits: a xeriscape yard means a lower water bill, healthier soil, and less of your weekends spent on lawn maintenance.  So YMMV, obviously.

How did we get on the subject of goats?  Sorry, didn't mean to derail the thread.  Here's a majestic goat mini, to get things back on topic:





_His name is Champ, he has +6 to his ram attack, and does double damage if he charges._


----------



## Umbran

CleverNickName said:


> But there are benefits: a xeriscape yard means a lower water bill, healthier soil, and less of your weekends spent on lawn maintenance.  So YMMV, obviously.




Well, to my understanding, "xeriscape" usually applies to arid climates, which suburban Massachusetts isn't.  

The meadow is the New England equivalent - hardy plants, need no fertilizer, are native to the area so they generally live just fine with normal rainfall.

Or, I could just let the Concord grapes take over, which they totally will if I let them.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Well, to my understanding, "xeriscape" usually applies to arid climates, which suburban Massachusetts isn't.
> 
> The meadow is the New England equivalent - hardy plants, need no fertilizer, are native to the area so they generally live just fine with normal rainfall.
> 
> Or, I could just let the Concord grapes take over, which they totally will if I let them.



…then begin your private wine label/grape preserve company on the side.


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> Lawns are honestly _terrible_, invasive things.




 English kind of invented them but they have the weather to support it. 

 Putting lawns in desert areas that are short of water.......

 I never water mine as it's wet enough here.

 Interesting take on them.


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> Rent-A-Goat is awesome.  They are excellent for clearing brambles, thorns, blackberries, and ivy off of steep slopes, where mechanical removal would be very difficult and expensive.  They set up a temporary fence around the area, lock a few goats inside, and leave them for a few days.  For large areas, they deploy a whole herd, complete with goat herders...450 goats can clear an acre a day, according to the website.  All the brambles are completely gone, roots and all, and the goats are fat and happy.
> 
> My company has used them in the past to clear out blackberry brambles from an abandoned house.  It had an overgrown,  steeply-sloped backyard (nearly a 1:1 slope) with old lumber, appliances, and other junk all tangled up in it.  Rent A Goat came by, set up a temporary chain link fence, and put five goats inside with a little pop-up shelter and water trough.  By the end of the week, that slope was _completely barren._  And fertilized.  It would have taken twice as long, and cost twice as much, to clear that backyard otherwise.




That is brilliant.


----------



## CapnZapp

People, this thread is supposed to be about the pandemic.

Now get your goats off my lawn!


----------



## Imaculata

It's flu season, which means every cough means it 'could' be covid, and even mild flu symptoms are super scary.

I took two covid self tests due to feeling rather ill this week, and having to cough constantly. But both came out negative, thank Zeus. Having to stick cuetips up your nose is a bit uncomfortable. But I want to make sure that friends and family are safe, so I'll gladly make that sacrifice.


----------



## Ryujin

CapnZapp said:


> People, this thread is supposed to be about the pandemic.
> 
> Now get your goats off my lawn!



It's a metaphor.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Imaculata said:


> It's flu season, which means every cough means it 'could' be covid, and even mild flu symptoms are super scary.
> 
> I took two covid self tests due to feeling rather ill this week, and having to cough constantly. But both came out negative, thank Zeus. Having to stick cuetips up your nose is a bit uncomfortable. But I want to make sure that friends and family are safe, so I'll gladly make that sacrifice.



I've had five or six of those tests in the past year. So far so good.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Thought I'd post a link to this-








						Omicron’s Explosive Growth Is a Warning Sign
					

We don’t know how severe Omicron is, but we do know it’s spreading very fast.




					www.theatlantic.com
				




Preliminary data on Omicron shows, according to the article- 

"In other words, Omicron is spreading in highly immune populations as quickly as the original virus did in populations with no immunity at all."

In addition, "Protection against infection after two doses is not looking very good."

The good news (!!!) is that there doesn't seem to be much conclusive data that its particularly severe, and "Two doses plus infection or three doses get people to a higher baseline of neutralizing antibodies, which can better withstand the erosion from Omicron."

Ugh.


----------



## Umbran

From Pfizer:
"Wednesday, December 08, 2021 - 06:54am

_Preliminary laboratory studies demonstrate that three doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine neutralize the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529 lineage) while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers _
_Data indicate that a third dose of BNT162b2 increases the neutralizing antibody titers by 25-fold compared to two doses against the Omicron variant; titers after the booster dose are comparable to titers observed after two doses against the wild-type virus which are associated with high levels of protection_
_As 80% of epitopes in the spike protein recognized by CD8+ T cells are not affected by the mutations in the Omicron variant, two doses may still induce protection against severe disease_
_The companies continue to advance the development of a variant-specific vaccine for Omicron and expect to have it available by March in the event that an adaption is needed to further increase the level and duration of protection – with no change expected to the companies’ four billion dose capacity for 2022"_






						Pfizer and BioNTech Provide Update on Omicron Variant | Pfizer
					

Preliminary laboratory studies demonstrate that three doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine neutralize the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529 lineage) while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers Data indicate that a third dose of BNT162b2 increases the neutralizing antibody...




					www.pfizer.com


----------



## Zardnaar

What's the latest on boosters? Every 6 months? 
I'm got my shots in August I think the 6 months is in February.


----------



## Mannahnin

Yes, six months is pretty much the latest word for the mRNA vaccines.  Folks who've gotten J&J who don't have a precluding allergy (like Polyethylene glycol_) _are also recommended to get an mRNA shot after two months.

I got mine here at the hospital a bit after that.  Mixed it up; Pfizer to go with my Moderna series.  Sorely tempted to go hunting a J&J to add to my set.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Umbran said:


> From Pfizer:
> "Wednesday, December 08, 2021 - 06:54am




That was linked-to in the article. Part of the "Two doses plus infection or three doses get people to a higher baseline of neutralizing antibodies, which can better withstand the erosion from Omicron."

As always- get vaccinated. Get your booster. Follow public health announcements. But given the stalling in both vaccination rate and in people getting boosters, this is not a welcome development.


----------



## J.Quondam

Mannahnin said:


> I got mine here at the hospital a bit after that.  Mixed it up; Pfizer to go with my Moderna series.  Sorely tempted to go hunting a J&J to add to my set.



It's like Pokemon: Gotta catch 'em all!


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

BBC Today-









						Omicron: Three vaccine doses key for protection against variant
					

UK scientists say two doses of a Covid vaccine are not enough to stop you catching the Omicron variant.



					www.bbc.com
				




Conforming what people have been seeing, dramatic drop off from two doses*, some drop off with the booster.

GET YOUR BOOSTER.


*Still no data on severity. Hoping it's milder!


----------



## Zardnaar

3 shots ha. Newbs. Real men get 10!!









						Covid-19: Man receives up to 10 vaccines in one day
					

The man is believed to have been paid for the jabs and to have visited several vaccination centres. Health officials are "very concerned", and are investigating.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Breed em tough down here. By tough I mean stupid.


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> 3 shots ha. Newbs. Real men get 10!!
> 
> Breed 'em tough down here. By tough I mean stupid.



That is either crazy, or crazy like a fox.


----------



## Mirtek

Umbran said:


> From Pfizer:
> "Wednesday, December 08, 2021 - 06:54am
> 
> _Preliminary laboratory studies demonstrate that three doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine neutralize the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529 lineage) while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers _
> _Data indicate that a third dose of BNT162b2 increases the neutralizing antibody titers by 25-fold compared to two doses against the Omicron variant; titers after the booster dose are comparable to titers observed after two doses against the wild-type virus which are associated with high levels of protection_
> _As 80% of epitopes in the spike protein recognized by CD8+ T cells are not affected by the mutations in the Omicron variant, two doses may still induce protection against severe disease_
> _The companies continue to advance the development of a variant-specific vaccine for Omicron and expect to have it available by March in the event that an adaption is needed to further increase the level and duration of protection – with no change expected to the companies’ four billion dose capacity for 2022"_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pfizer and BioNTech Provide Update on Omicron Variant | Pfizer
> 
> 
> Preliminary laboratory studies demonstrate that three doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine neutralize the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529 lineage) while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers Data indicate that a third dose of BNT162b2 increases the neutralizing antibody...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.pfizer.com



On the other hand: Sieben junge Deutsche infizieren sich in Südafrika trotz Dritt-Impfung

Short english summary: 7 germans on a trip through South Africa all catched Omikron. All 7 of them were fully vaccinated and boostered:

1-5: 2xPfizer + Pfizer Booster
6: 2x Pfizer + Moderna Booster
7: 1x Astra / 1x Pfizer + Pfizer Booster

They got their booster between 5-10 month after their second initial shot and all of them were boostered between 1-2 month ago as of the the time they catched their breakthrough infections (among the earliest people in Germany to receive boosters)

Wolfgang Preiser from Stellenbosch University near Kapstadt, member of the team that identified Ominkron told the Tagesspiegel: _"We're currently seeing a lot of breakthrough infections. What we did not know is that even a booster mit Pfizer does not prevent it"_

Original:_ „Durchbruchsinfektionen sehen wir gerade sehr viele. Was wir nicht wussten ist, dass auch eine Booster-Impfung mit Biontech/Pfizer das nicht verhindert“, _erklärte Preiser gegenüber dem Tagesspiegel.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> On the other hand: Sieben junge Deutsche infizieren sich in Südafrika trotz Dritt-Impfung
> 
> Short english summary: 7 germans on a trip through South Africa all catched Omikron. All 7 of them were fully vaccinated and boostered:
> 
> 1-5: 2xPfizer + Pfizer Booster
> 6: 2x Pfizer + Moderna Booster
> 7: 1x Astra / 1x Pfizer + Pfizer Booster
> 
> They got their booster between 5-10 month after their second initial shot and all of them were boostered between 1-2 month ago as of the the time they catched their breakthrough infections (among the earliest people in Germany to receive boosters)
> 
> Wolfgang Preiser from Stellenbosch University near Kapstadt, member of the team that identified Ominkron told the Tagesspiegel: _"We're currently seeing a lot of breakthrough infections. What we did not know is that even a booster mit Pfizer does not prevent it"_
> 
> Original:_ „Durchbruchsinfektionen sehen wir gerade sehr viele. Was wir nicht wussten ist, dass auch eine Booster-Impfung mit Biontech/Pfizer das nicht verhindert“, _erklärte Preiser gegenüber dem Tagesspiegel.




 More concerned about death and severity.


----------



## Mirtek

Zardnaar said:


> More concerned about death and severity.



Of those 7 there are 6 under 30 and the 7th is 39. 

Judging purely on their age, without any knowledge of other specific conditions, a non-severe course of a disease would be the expectation even if they had catched the original or delta strain while being fully unvaccinated.

I fear we have to wait until older people catch Omikron to see whether it's more severe than Delta


----------



## GreyLord

I think there is a VAST difference of climates in the world and even the United States.  In Florida and the South east US, you don't have to water anything.  Your grass just grows on it's own (or at least that was my experience).  It just grows without anything else.  You have to mow it at least once a week during the spring, summer, and early fall just to keep pace with how quickly it grows!

Not everyplace uses extra water to water lawns (except for those people who I think must be transplants from the west because you see them watering their lawn with sprinklers and wonder...WHY!?

Now, in the Western US it's a lot drier and people waste a TON of water on their lawns, but it's not like that everyplace.

I was under the impression that Umbran was in the Northeastern US and that the Northeastern US was a lot like the Southeast regarding lawncare and such.

On the vaccine stuff, I had the Moderna vaccine.  It showed a remarkably higher resistance to the virus than Pfizer at the 6 month mark, is it also recommended to be taken after 6 months absolutely, or is there a longer grace period?


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> On the vaccine stuff, I had the Moderna vaccine.  It showed a remarkably higher resistance to the virus than Pfizer at the 6 month mark, is it also recommended to be taken after 6 months absolutely, or is there a longer grace period?




The current recommendation is a booster after 6 months of either Pfizer or Moderna.


----------



## Umbran

Mirtek said:


> Short english summary: 7 germans _*on a trip through South Africa*_ all catched Omikron.



(emphasis mine)

No vaccine protection is perfect.  While these folks may have been vaccinated, most of South Africa isn't - under a quarter of the population is fully vaccinated!

So, yes, if you go about your business like nothing is wrong, and metaphorically s_teep yourself in a bath of virus for a prolonged period_, yes, you are still going to catch it! 

Being vaccinated is not a free pass to engage in risky behavior.


----------



## Imaculata

One has to wonder what kind of an idiot goes on a trip around the world through some of the world's least vaccinated countries during a time of a deadly epidemic, when they don't need to.


----------



## J.Quondam

Imaculata said:


> One has to wonder what kind of an idiot goes on a trip around the world through some of the world's least vaccinated countries during a time of a deadly epidemic, when they don't need to.



Honestly, if I was young and still in globetrotting mode like I used to be, I'd be pretty upset to be stuck at home-- apparently indefinitely-- unable to see the world. 
It's a dumb thing to do, yes, but I absolutely understand it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> One has to wonder what kind of an idiot goes on a trip around the world through some of the world's least vaccinated countries during a time of a deadly epidemic, when they don't need to.




 I wouldn't bother myself buts it's more due to not being able to reliably return. 

 But yeah we've been doing more diestic tourism. The usual tourist traps are a timewarp back to the 1980's. 

 Going camping in January mates been hiking in the Alps and Fiordland more.


----------



## CleverNickName

My brother in law just tested positive for Covid-19.  I don't know his vaccination status, but I _do_ know that he's a conservative, asthmatic smoker with a history of sharing misinformation on his social media feed.   If he did get vaccinated, it was likely under protest.  He's on a wait list for some kind of "antibodies infusion," I'm told.


----------



## Zardnaar

Numbers got up to 200 odd but gave fallen back to 63 a day. 

 Auckland plague rats get to leave next week and the tourist places are gonna be busy so here comes Covid.


----------



## Imaculata

J.Quondam said:


> Honestly, if I was young and still in globetrotting mode like I used to be, I'd be pretty upset to be stuck at home-- apparently indefinitely-- unable to see the world.
> It's a dumb thing to do, yes, but I absolutely understand it.




That's why MMO's were invented. XD


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> That's why MMO's were invented. XD




 Grand Strategy Games by Paradox.


----------



## Eltab

CleverNickName said:


> My brother in law just tested positive for Covid-19.  I don't know his vaccination status, but I _do_ know that he's a conservative, asthmatic smoker with a history of sharing misinformation on his social media feed.   If he did get vaccinated, it was likely under protest.  He's on a wait list for some kind of "antibodies infusion," I'm told.



Good hopes sent to him.
The 'asthmatic smoker' is the part to be worried about.  His lungs already have a tough hill to climb, before catching anything else.
Per the "Tested +itive" thread, zinc and vitamin D pills help your body fight against COVID.

To look up the antibody infusion, you will probably have to add the term "Florida" or "DeSantis", since he's been working hardest to make it available.  This is a real treatment that really does kill COVID virus and give the patient a leg up against them.

On the horizon: a research test of an antibody nose spray works for more than just the flu virus they were investigating; it offered protection vs other flu viruses too.  The researchers think this happens because they stimulated nasal cells that have to defend against whatever you breathe in.  If this transfers, a similar spray vs any one COVID variant would help against any other COVID variant.  But it will be a while before this is ready - the test uses mice.
(I'll have to get a link, I know this description is vague.)


----------



## Mirtek

So Omikron is already behind 20% of new infections in GB and 44% in the London area. Expected to be the dominant strain in the capital area within the next 48h.

Don't think that what's anybody had in mind when we wanted to finally get rid of Delta 









						Britain reports first death with Omicron coronavirus variant
					

At least one person has died in the United Kingdom after contracting the Omicron coronavirus variant, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday, the first publicly confirmed death globally from the swiftly spreading strain.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Umbran

Mirtek said:


> So Omikron is already behind 20% of new infections in GB and 44% in the London area. Expected to be the dominant strain in the capital area within the next 48h.
> 
> Don't think that what's anybody had in mind when we wanted to finally get rid of Delta
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Britain reports first death with Omicron coronavirus variant
> 
> 
> At least one person has died in the United Kingdom after contracting the Omicron coronavirus variant, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday, the first publicly confirmed death globally from the swiftly spreading strain.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com




If 20% of new infections are Omicron, but there's only one death... that may be precisely what we want to finally get rid of Delta.  If it is less harmful, and pushes other variants out, that's a good thing.


----------



## Mirtek

Let's hope it stays this way. In Germany the death toll usually trails the new infections by 14-20 days. One way or another, we'll know soon. Keep fingers crossed


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> If 20% of new infections are Omicron, but there's only one death... that may be precisely what we want to finally get rid of Delta.  If it is less harmful, and pushes other variants out, that's a good thing.




I think you're on to something. It's a bit too soon to tell for sure, but Omicron could (hopefully) wind up a "good thing" - if people generally survive it, and it grants resistance to other strains after you recover from it, especially if it spreads like it seems to, it could, if I understand things correctly, help to slow the spread of other variants.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> If 20% of new infections are Omicron, but there's only one death... that may be precisely what we want to finally get rid of Delta.  If it is less harmful, and pushes other variants out, that's a good thing.




 So basically what I said weeks ago?


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> So basically what I said weeks ago?




If you will recall, what I objected to was the idea that "every" plague went this way, or that we could depend on things going this way.  Neither of those points was correct.

But, good job making the lives of millions of people about you.  Classic.


----------



## Rabulias

Zardnaar said:


> So basically what I said weeks ago?





Umbran said:


> If you will recall, what I objected to was the idea that "every" plague went this way, or that we could depend on things going this way.  Neither of those points was correct.



And even if Omicron turns out to be less deadly/harmful and supplants the Delta variant, the next variant (Pi, I would think, but they may skip that one... ) might be worse and push Omicron out of the arena.

Even if Omicron turns out to be Covid's swan song (I doubt it), as long as people disregard best medical practices, in the next pandemic we will go through this stuff all over again.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> If you will recall, what I objected to was the idea that "every" plague went this way, or that we could depend on things going this way.  Neither of those points was correct.
> 
> But, good job making the lives of millions of people about you.  Classic.




 I said it before then. 

 But if I say it's "good" people gonna jump down my throat. 

 That's the off ranp from Covid though as elmination isn't viable and vaccination rates are to low.

 Sucks for the individuals but plagues generally burn out. We're still here was my main point from previous comment. 

 Context I read up on various plagues last year in March (Justinian, Black, Spanish Flu). 

  Hopefully the worst will more or less be done by March 2023.


----------



## Zardnaar

Local anti vaxxer nurse making terrorist type threats. 









						Dunedin nurse referred to Nursing Council over online threats to attack vaccination buses
					

A Dunedin nurse has been referred to a professional conduct committee by the Nursing Council after posting threats against medical professionals involved in the Covid-19 vaccine rollout.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Complete with the crazy eyes and her mates clogging up the CBD. Big turnout. 

 Problem for her is she works as some sort of consultant for a government department (ACC). And she has violated some sort of ethics thing nurses sign. 

  Apparently she sorry blaming fear.


----------



## Mirtek

Zardnaar said:


> Local anti vaxxer nurse making terrorist type threats.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dunedin nurse referred to Nursing Council over online threats to attack vaccination buses
> 
> 
> A Dunedin nurse has been referred to a professional conduct committee by the Nursing Council after posting threats against medical professionals involved in the Covid-19 vaccine rollout.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Complete with the crazy eyes and her mates clogging up the CBD. Big turnout.
> 
> Problem for her is she works as some sort of consultant for a government department (ACC). And she has violated some sort of ethics thing nurses sign.
> 
> Apparently she sorry blaming fear.



That's serious! These Dúnedain are bad motherf####. You do not want them as enemies


----------



## Mirtek

Looks like Denmark is overtaking UK in the race who will be the first nation that has Omicron as the dominant strain in it's capital. The danish SSI expects it to become dominant in the Kopenhagen area within this week

On the bright side I got my booster today. I expect a fourth shot with a Omicron modified formular before June. Anyone wants to bet?

Down side is we're having african leaders complaining the western "vaccine-egoism" of treating their citizens to a third shot while they struggle to offer their's a first shot. Can't say that they're wrong with this complaint.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> Looks like Denmark is overtaking UK in the race who will be the first nation that has Omicron as the dominant strain in it's capital. The danish SSI expects it to become dominant in the Kopenhagen area within this week
> 
> On the bright side I got my booster today. I expect a fourth shot with a Omicron modified formular before June. Anyone wants to bet?
> 
> Down side is we're having african leaders complaining the western "vaccine-egoism" of treating their citizens to a third shot while they struggle to offer their's a first shot. Can't say that they're wrong with this complaint.




 Depends on what the supply is like. 

 Export vaccines while leaving yourselves short isn't gonna go down well anywhere. 

 If there's excess vaccines available export away.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well Aucklands hit 90% vaccination rates. 

Covid-19: Counties Manukau DHB hits 90% fully vaccinated target 

 And they're reopening today. Been in lockdown since August. 









						Auckland borders reopen: Travellers rejoice as they resume work, reunite with family
					

Auckland travellers say they are thrilled to be able to see their family and work mates outside the region again as the city's hard borders lifted today.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Spoke with a guy I know he's a bit salty about the current leadership (he supported them btw not the usual anti Jacinda brigade). He's lost about 35k in the hole and wasn't in Auckland. Others are 6 figures in the red. 

 That's with 0 cases of Covid. It's also turned out that the health advice said restrictions outside Auckland weren't needed and the messaging has been inconsistent and poorly applied. 

 Eg going by their own guidelines based on hospitals being overwhelmed they still used restrictions. Then wondered why people stopped following the rules.


----------



## MoonSong

The state I live in has shown it first confirmed endogenous case of Omicron. At least my parents have just had their third dose and I can feel at peace for them.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> The state I live in has shown it first confirmed endogenous case of Omicron. At least my parents have just had their third dose and I can feel at peace for them.




 Mexico iirc?


----------



## JEB

Mirtek said:


> Down side is we're having african leaders complaining the western "vaccine-egoism" of treating their citizens to a third shot while they struggle to offer their's a first shot. Can't say that they're wrong with this complaint.



Per _The Atlantic_, while delays in getting vaccine supplies were absolutely an issue early on, it sounds more like vaccine hesitance is the major roadblock, in African countries and everywhere else.

What’s Really Behind Global Vaccine Hesitancy


----------



## Zardnaar

JEB said:


> Per _The Atlantic_, while delays in getting vaccine supplies were absolutely an issue early on, it sounds more like vaccine hesitance is the major roadblock, in African countries and everywhere else.
> 
> What’s Really Behind Global Vaccine Hesitancy




 Can't force it in most countries.

 I was wrong not just Auckland we hit 90% overall double jabbed. 









						Jacinda Ardern says country has hit 90 per cent fully vaccinated and 'bloody deserves' a holiday, in final speech of the year
					

In her last speech of the year, Jacinda Ardern announces country has hit 90 per cent milestone for Covid vaccine double doses.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Some areas hitting 95-97%. Got to use vaccine passport today so inconvenient if you're not vaxxed if you like a social life.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Export vaccines while leaving yourselves short isn't gonna go down well anywhere.
> 
> If there's excess vaccines available export away.




Estimates I have seen say that there will be about 12 billion doses of vaccine manufactured this year.

So, yeah, no real chance of the US leaving itself short there.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Estimates I have seen say that there will be about 12 billion doses of vaccine manufactured this year.
> 
> So, yeah, no real chance of the US leaving itself short there.



The real issue seems to be getting enough arms to put those doses in, before they expire.


----------



## Cadence

Stupid headline and write-up of the day:  Cornell University reports more than 900 Covid-19 cases this week. Many are Omicron variant cases in fully vaccinated students



> "Virtually every case of the Omicron variant to date has been found in fully vaccinated students, a portion of whom had also received a booster shot," said Vice President for University Relations Joel Malina in a statement.




which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, because you can read a couple paragraphs down that...



> Cornell's overall vaccination rate among students is 97%.




because as stated a few paragraphs later:



> The school has a mandatory vaccination policy for students, with exemptions for religious or medical issues.




And it might have been nice to have this higher up too...



> "While I want to provide reassurance that, to date, we have not seen severe illness in any of our infected students,


----------



## Ryujin

Cadence said:


> Stupid headline and write-up of the day:  Cornell University reports more than 900 Covid-19 cases this week. Many are Omicron variant cases in fully vaccinated students
> 
> 
> 
> which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, because you can read a couple paragraphs down that...
> 
> 
> 
> because as stated a few paragraphs later:
> 
> 
> 
> And it might have been nice to have this higher up too...



It doesn't have quite the same click-bait worthiness if you don't bury at least _some_ of the facts.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> The real issue seems to be getting enough arms to put those doses in, before they expire.




 That and paying for it.


----------



## MoonSong

Zardnaar said:


> Mexico iirc?



Thanks for remembering!


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> That and paying for it.



If it's going to expire anyway, give it to someone who needs it before it does. It's sunk cost either way, so might as well be philanthropic.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> If it's going to expire anyway, give it to someone who needs it before it does. It's sunk cost either way, so might as well be philanthropic.




 I suspect the chokepoint is logistics.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> If it's going to expire anyway, give it to someone who needs it before it does. It's sunk cost either way, so might as well be philanthropic.




In this context, there'd be an ocean between the vaccine and the person who needed it...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> In this context, there'd be an ocean between the vaccine and the person who needed it...



True.

OTOH, I’ve read of First Nations communities donating their unused vaccines to surrounding communities when it was feasible.

And MONTHS ago, there was that MD who went around injecting people with first doses from a vial that was half used, but expiring in an hour or two.  He actually got in trouble for that because he didn’t follow the guidelines, and was instead putting shots in arms of anyone unvaccinated he could find.  He was later cleared of being punished because it was deemed that he had acted ethically, given the situation.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> In this context, there'd be an ocean between the vaccine and the person who needed it...



We can get fruit to Canada, from South America, before it goes bad. We could at least take a shot.


----------



## Mirtek

Just something I consider funny in light of the recent argument about WotC removing mentions of 'brothel' with the latest Errata









						Brothel Offers Vaccines With Benefits in Free Sex for the Vaxxed Campaign
					

A “sauna club” is offering 30-minute vouchers with “lady of their choice” with every COVID vaccine put into an arm.



					www.thedailybeast.com
				




If german brothels foolow suit I may have gotten my booster too early


----------



## Not a Hobbit

....................................


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> We can get fruit to Canada, from South America, before it goes bad. We could at least take a shot.




The transport and storage needs of the vaccine are much different from those of fruit.  We are talking temps of -76F and below.

Not to mention that you can't just supply the vaccine - you have to have people trained to handle it at the destination.

And we are not talking about a shot.  We are talking about hundreds of millions of doses of vaccines, that have to be administered twice over a month, and then again six months later for a booster.  That's not like shipping pineapples, that's a commitment to medical services.

Which is not to say it cannot be done.  But doing it isn't a simple one-off drop of a box of avocados.


----------



## MoonSong

Just to pile up on logistics. My country has had ridiculously and painfully slow vaccination progress rates. Yet, we are way ahead in comparison with the rest of Latin America. I wish we could have the brigades om the streets like back when they made thw campaign against smallpox, but there are just not enough doses, syringes and the world is a huge place.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> The transport and storage needs of the vaccine are much different from those of fruit. We are talking temps of -76F and below.
> 
> Not to mention that you can't just supply the vaccine - you have to have people trained to handle it at the destination.



The logistics of this is why I firmly believe the J&J vaccines- and the new pills from a couple of pharma corps- will play an outsized role in the future of handling COVID.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> The transport and storage needs of the vaccine are much different from those of fruit.  We are talking temps of -76F and below.
> 
> Not to mention that you can't just supply the vaccine - you have to have people trained to handle it at the destination.
> 
> And we are not talking about a shot.  We are talking about hundreds of millions of doses of vaccines, that have to be administered twice over a month, and then again six months later for a booster.  That's not like shipping pineapples, that's a commitment to medical services.
> 
> Which is not to say it cannot be done.  But doing it isn't a simple one-off drop of a box of avocados.




It seems odd on page 2 of https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/pfizer/downloads/storage-summary.pdf  that the Pfizer one can stay refrigerated longer (a month) than it can stay in a normal freezer (two weeks)?  (Or am I misreading?)


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Cadence said:


> It seems odd on page 2 of https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/pfizer/downloads/storage-summary.pdf  that the Pfizer one can stay refrigerated longer (a month) than it can stay in a normal freezer (two weeks)?  (Or am I misreading?)




It means that you can store it in a freezer for up to two weeks, and after that put in in the fridge for up to 31 days.

Use of the freezer extends the theoretical "shelf-life" of the vaccine.


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> It seems odd on page 2 of https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/pfizer/downloads/storage-summary.pdf  that the Pfizer one can stay refrigerated longer (a month) than it can stay in a normal freezer (two weeks)?  (Or am I misreading?)




It is a little more complicated than that, because from the freezer it can be returned to deep-freeze, but once you thaw it, there is no going back.


----------



## CleverNickName

Got my third vaccine (the "booster") the other day.  I didn't really have any side effects at all from the first two injections, but that third one was a doozy and left me tired, achy, and queasy for about 12 hours afterward.  It was nothing that soup and ibuprophen couldn't fix, but it was surprising given my history with the other Covid-19 vaccines.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The logistics of this is why I firmly believe the J&J vaccines- and the new pills from a couple of pharma corps- will play an outsized role in the future of handling COVID.




J&J has its place.  But, initial studies are showing it faces similar losses of effectiveness against Omicron as other vaccines, but it starts off worse to begin with - the end result is it being "nearly worthless" against Omicron.  More study is needed, but I'm expecting J&J may need to go back to the drawing board to stay relevant.

The anti-virals you take once you've got covid, however, are not dependent on the shape of the spike protein, so they still show a lot of promise.


----------



## Rabulias

MoonSong said:


> I wish we could have the brigades om the streets like back when they made thw campaign against smallpox, but there are just not enough doses, syringes and the world is a huge place.



Another logistical wrinkle is there are a lot more people in the world now compared to the 1960s and 1970s (like twice as many).


----------



## Umbran

I don't want to jinx this, but...

My wife and I usually take a vacation in the wintertime.  We didn't last year, for obvious reasons.
This year, we planned one back some time ago, because things started looking good.  Now, we are nervous.

I checked, however, and at the moment, our intended destination has roughly 10% of the case rate, per capita, that my home area does.  If that holds, it'll be safer to go on vacation than to stay home!

Knock on frikken wood!


----------



## Eltab

Cadence said:


> ... Stupid headline ...



The really stupid headline will come next week:
Cornell Students Finish Semester, Go Home For Holidays 

Including any students who were exposed but not sick.  Instead of getting them tested before allowing them to depart.  Keep the infected _on campus_ and cure them.  _Then_ they can go home for the remaining holiday.


----------



## GreyLord

Umbran said:


> I don't want to jinx this, but...
> 
> My wife and I usually take a vacation in the wintertime.  We didn't last year, for obvious reasons.
> This year, we planned one back some time ago, because things started looking good.  Now, we are nervous.
> 
> I checked, however, and at the moment, our intended destination has roughly 10% of the case rate, per capita, that my home area does.  If that holds, it'll be safer to go on vacation than to stay home!
> 
> Knock on frikken wood!




If it's Florida, just know that there are agencies that flat out lie about the numbers.  Florida numbers are unreliable...but our death count (as in all deaths, not just those attributed to Covid-19...look at excess deaths compared to 2019 for example) actually sort of shows what really is happening.


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> If it's Florida...




Nope.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

GreyLord said:


> If it's Florida, just know that there are agencies that flat out lie about the numbers.  Florida numbers are unreliable...but our death count (as in all deaths, not just those attributed to Covid-19...look at excess deaths compared to 2019 for example) actually sort of shows what really is happening.




C'mon, Umbran is not going to risk going to _Florida_ (of all places). He's no fool!


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Including any students who were exposed but not sick.  Instead of getting them tested before allowing them to depart.  Keep the infected _on campus_ and cure them.  _Then_ they can go home for the remaining holiday.




The University does not have the authority to do that.


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> He's no fool!




I have my moments.  

I have a friend who is _moving to Florida_.  I find that hard to fathom, even from the context that the House of Mouse is pretty much his favorite place on the planet.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> I have my moments.
> 
> I have a friend who is _moving to Florida_.  I find that hard to fathom, even from the context that the House of Mouse is pretty much his favorite place on the planet.




It's a point of pride, and perhaps shame, for me that I have never been to Disneyland. Or -World, for that matter.


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> It's a point of pride, and perhaps shame, for me that I have never been to Disneyland. Or -World, for that matter.




I find the park's good for one visit a decade or so, for me.  The cruise line has been a miracle, up until covid-times.  Now... it'll be some time before I'm getting on a boat.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> I find the park's good for one visit a decade or so, for me.  The cruise line has been a miracle, up until covid-times.  Now... it'll be some time before I'm getting on a boat.




I had an Alaskan cruise booked when Covid hit. (My first ever attempt at a cruise). It took me six months to get my money back, and I don't think I'll ever want to try it again. Shame. I love the sea.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Umbran said:


> I find the park's good for one visit a decade or so, for me.  The cruise line has been a miracle, up until covid-times.  Now... it'll be some time before I'm getting on a boat.



The summer of 2019 my family took an Alaskan cruise, which will probably be my last time being on a cruise ship for multiple decades. We had also planned a trip to Disney World in Florida for March of 2020, because my sister worked there for their Disney-college program and we got some free tickets as a benefit. We almost went, back before we knew how big of a problem Covid was going to be, but as the news eventually came out we (wisely) decided against it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

FitzTheRuke said:


> It's a point of pride, and perhaps shame, for me that I have never been to Disneyland. Or -World, for that matter.



The few times I’ve been were some of the best times I’ve ever spent at amusement parks.

As a kid, I got to see an early live performance of the Muppets, as well as another by Japanese Kodo drummers.

A decade+ later, had a blast at the just-recently-opened EPCOT.


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> I had an Alaskan cruise booked when Covid hit. (My first ever attempt at a cruise). It took me six months to get my money back, and I don't think I'll ever want to try it again. Shame. I love the sea.




I'm sorry you had that experience. 

Allow me to regale you with my experience with Disney Cruise Line service...


Spoiler: This is way tangential from the thread topic, but what the heck



Some years back now, my wife and I had booked a Disney cruise.  We were flying from Boston to Orlando the same day the cruise left the port - get off the plane, get on a bus, get on the boat - Disney handles the luggage, even.

Three days before there was a major snowstorm in the Northeast.  By the time we had to fly the airport was clear, but planes and people still weren't where they needed to be, so flights were running with major delays.  We couldn't afford much of a delay or the boat wouldn't be there.  There was also a mother and daughter on our flight, getting on the same boat.

We started to get nervous.  But, we discovered that Disney had a weirdly specific phone dedicated to, "I am flying to Florida to get on a Disney cruise, and weather has delayed my flight."  We called it, and informed them what ship we were supposed to get on, what flight we were on, and so forth.  They asked us to keep them updated - while they could get our flight information, the systems often had a lag in reporting.  (Or so they said - I am half of the opinion that the goal there was to allow the customer to feel like they are _doing something_, and have some control in a stress-laden situation.)  We called them every half-hour or so.

We did finally take off, but very late - after when we nominally could have gotten on the boat.  Disney told us to hold on but that, at worst, they'd arrange that we meet the boat at the first island stop, and we could spend the intervening day at the parks, if we wanted.  But really, we should hold on, they would see what they could do.

And then we saw the Power of the Mouse.

This was after 9/11.  People without tickets did _not_ get beyond security to meet you at the gate.  Except, Disney had someone.  They whisked the four of us off to a bus (a big coach, the size of a Greyhound bus) that was waiting just for us.  That took us to the terminal that was empty except for the staff needed to handle our paperwork, because everyone else was already on board...

...But they had _held the entire ship for a half-hour_, just for the four of us.

We also happened to get the last two all-week access passes to the adults-only spa area on that trip. 

It was a really great vacation.


----------



## billd91

FitzTheRuke said:


> It's a point of pride, and perhaps shame, for me that I have never been to Disneyland. Or -World, for that matter.



For most of my life, I hadn’t had the opportunity. We went to closer parks instead (Great America, which has good roller coasters, so don’t feel too sorry for me). But I finally went and took my kids.

And Disney *DOES* hospitality. And now I get why people are repeat visitors about their Disney trips


----------



## Imaculata

I've been to Disneyland in California and to Disneyland Paris. Both were great experiences. But I'm staying away from themeparks right now, because I've noticed people don't really take masking all that serious. Especially when you're in a queue for a ride, people just take their masks off, and don't keep adequate distance. It's not worth my health or life.


By the way, I saw this piece about a day in the ICU, and what fantastic journalism.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Imaculata said:


> I've been to Disneyland in California and to Disneyland Paris. Both were great experiences.




I think it was Malthus who first remarked that there is a certain inevitability to things. For example-

If you go to Disney World, you will go on the Small World ride. Because you kind of have to. And when you do, there is a 100% chance that the ride will get stuck.

Which will lead to the following observation:

For the first minute or two, the song will continue to be charming.
For the next minute or two, the song will no longer be charming, but will at least provide the comfort of nostalgia.
Following that, the song will begin to echo and make your soul to its rhythms, burrowing within and combining with the creepy ethnic stereotypes whirling around you to form some kind of apocalyptic hell.
Somewhere around minute 10, the hallucinations start. You will realize that not only is the world small, but so is the boat. This is bat country, and you need to escape.

Shortly thereafter, you will learn that the Disney secret police are large, burly, and overly-serious when it comes to their "Don't get out of the boat, sir" orders.

...or so I hear.


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> But I'm staying away from themeparks right now, because I've noticed people don't really take masking all that serious.





Or, bringing it around to gaming - conventions.  Pax Unplugged and Worldcon.  Tons of stories of folks going improperly masked.  

I saw one description go by of a woman wearing a mask with a zipper, that she opened when she talked.  It is as if she completely failed to understand the point, after a year and a half and more of this.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Well, I will say there seem to be an enormous amount of people who still are under the impression your mask protects you (which is either untrue or negligible) rather than other people.

Of course some of the ones not wearing them may understand that all too well...


----------



## Cadence

Thomas Shey said:


> Well, I will say there seem to be an enormous amount of people who still are under the impression your mask protects you (which is either untrue or negligible) rather than other people.




Do you have a favorite CDC/NIH/euro-equivalent link saying the N95 protection is negligible for the wearer?  (Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has links to papers and makes it sound like it still has some effect in protecting the wearer that goes beyond negligible -- even if there is a lot more protection going the other way).

In any case, if everyone masked and the spread decreased it kind of does protect everyone...



Thomas Shey said:


> Of course some of the ones not wearing them may understand that all too well...



I'm not sure how much understanding is going on...


----------



## Mannahnin

Thomas Shey said:


> Well, I will say there seem to be an enormous amount of people who still are under the impression your mask protects you (which is either untrue or negligible) rather than other people.





Cadence said:


> Do you have a favorite CDC/NIH/euro-equivalent link saying the N95 protection is negligible for the wearer?  (Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has links to papers and makes it sound like it still has some effect in protecting the wearer that goes beyond negligible -- even if there is a lot more protection going the other way).
> 
> In any case, if everyone masked and the spread decreased it kind of does protect everyone...



An N95, at least a properly fit-tested one which actually seals, does indeed protect the wearer.  But almost no one is wearing a fit-tested N95 in public.  They're mostly wearing cloth or surgical masks, or occasionally K-N95s or even full N95s which just haven't been fit-tested and so don't have a proper seal.

Non-fit-tested masks DO provide at least a little protection for the wearer, but it's pretty minor. The degree of protection varies depending on the thickness and material of the mask, and how well-fitted it is.  Which is also true of its ability to catch your own respiratory droplets to protect others, but that efficacy is substantially greater than the degree to which it protects you.  Both are aided by distancing, which reduces the amount of viral load either party is exposed to, though if you're in an enclosed area with an infected person for an extended period (say, an hour+), distancing isn't much help.

So you're both basically right- masks are primarily to reduce our own viral dispersal if we are pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers, with only a secondary role of offering us some minor protection against viral spread from others.  This is somewhat distinct from how the fit-tested masks and eye protection worn by frontline healthcare providers are indeed primarily for their own safety.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Cadence said:


> Do you have a favorite CDC/NIH/euro-equivalent link saying the N95 protection is negligible for the wearer?




Most people aren't wearing N95s.  Even I don't and I take this a hell of a lot more seriously than most people.

And in terms of protecting everyone--but it doesn't have any direct contribution to protecting _the wearer_; group benefit is way too vague for many people.



Cadence said:


> I'm not sure how much understanding is going on...




Probably not a lot, but I'd be willing to bet with some people if the primary benefit of _them_ wearing a mask isn't to protect _them_, they don't care.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Mannahnin said:


> An N95, at least a properly fit-tested one which actually seals, does indeed protect the wearer.  But almost no one is wearing a fit-tested N95 in public.  They're mostly wearing cloth or surgical masks, or occasionally K-N95s or even full N95s which just haven't been fit-tested and so don't have a proper seal.
> 
> Non-fit-tested masks DO provide at least a little protection for the wearer, but it's pretty minor. The degree of protection varies depending on the thickness and material of the mask, and how well-fitted it is.  Which is also true of its ability to catch your own respiratory droplets to protect others, but that efficacy is substantially greater than the degree to which it protects you.




IIRC, the whole issue with masks and public guidance was that at first, they were trying to preserve N95 masks (and similar) for front-line and health care workers, and because of supply issues didn't want people hoarding them. Which is why we started with the confusion about even wearing masks.

Then they realized that wearing any kind of mask (such as cloth) would protect others, so people starting wearing masks because we had mask requirements, but a lot of them didn't understand those subtle distinctions (plus, yay capitalism, every business started selling cloth masks to people). 

Now there are sufficient supplies of N95 masks, but the messaging has been so messed up for so long people either aren't wearing masks, or are just wearing their supply of cloth masks as needed.


----------



## Ryujin

Mannahnin said:


> An N95, at least a properly fit-tested one which actually seals, does indeed protect the wearer.  But almost no one is wearing a fit-tested N95 in public.  They're mostly wearing cloth or surgical masks, or occasionally K-N95s or even full N95s which just haven't been fit-tested and so don't have a proper seal.
> 
> Non-fit-tested masks DO provide at least a little protection for the wearer, but it's pretty minor. The degree of protection varies depending on the thickness and material of the mask, and how well-fitted it is.  Which is also true of its ability to catch your own respiratory droplets to protect others, but that efficacy is substantially greater than the degree to which it protects you.  Both are aided by distancing, which reduces the amount of viral load either party is exposed to, though if you're in an enclosed area with an infected person for an extended period (say, an hour+), distancing isn't much help.
> 
> So you're both basically right- masks are primarily to reduce our own viral dispersal if we are pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers, with only a secondary role of offering us some minor protection against viral spread from others.  This is somewhat distinct from how the fit-tested masks and eye protection worn by frontline healthcare providers are indeed primarily for their own safety.



I'm still wearing reusable, washable, multi-layer cloth masks for the most part. I was offered N95 testing but if you have facial hair it won't seal properly, so that wasn't a possibility when the test was offered. (I didn't have a razor in my back pocket.) Also, the N95 masks we stocked at the time weren't the best/best fitting in the world. Some who went through with the fitting tests aren't bothering to use them. We've got some 3M on order that should be much better but, given that classes are still likely to be remote until at least the end of January (expecting an announcement soon), it's likely still not a pressing issue.


----------



## Mannahnin

Snarf Zagyg said:


> IIRC, the whole issue with masks and public guidance was that at first, they were trying to preserve N95 masks (and similar) for front-line and health care workers, and because of supply issues didn't want people hoarding them. Which is why we started with the confusion about even wearing masks.
> 
> Then they realized that wearing any kind of mask (such as cloth) would protect others, so people starting wearing masks because we had mask requirements, but a lot of them didn't understand those subtle distinctions (plus, yay capitalism, every business started selling cloth masks to people).
> 
> Now there are sufficient supplies of N95 masks, but the messaging has been so messed up for so long people either aren't wearing masks, or are just wearing their supply of cloth masks as needed.



Yes, there was some of that, for sure.  

Plus a couple of real clinical factors. 1. That Covid simply has a significantly higher rate of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission than we've seen from previous coronaviruses.  2. That the Western medical establishment has in general been less-sold, historically, on the value of general masking (compared to Asia, for example), figuring that the general public is bad at wearing them and likely to contaminate them through carelessness and significantly compromise their value.  Once we learned how common asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission are with this disease, the value of masks became more obvious.

But yeah, N95s definitely give better protection both ways, and are worth getting.  I had a small supply last year and specifically wore them in heightened-risk situations.  Especially when I'd be in a crowd and unable to distance, like at protests (especially before we had good data on how much being outdoors mitigates risk).


----------



## Cadence

Mannahnin said:


> with only a secondary role of offering us some minor protection against viral spread from others




It would be fun to have a table of what the saving throw bonus would be for various safety things (motorcycle helmets, seat belts, air bags, n95 masks, etc.)...

...  if nothing else we'd fill a thread with arguing about the scenarios used.


----------



## Mannahnin

Cadence said:


> It would be fun to have a table of what the saving throw bonus would be for various safety things (motorcycle helmets, seat belts, air bags, n95 masks, etc.)...
> 
> ...  if nothing else we'd fill a thread with arguing about the scenarios used.



You might enjoy the microcovid risk calculator.  



			https://www.microcovid.org/


----------



## Ryujin

Cadence said:


> It would be fun to have a table of what the saving throw bonus would be for various safety things (motorcycle helmets, seat belts, air bags, n95 masks, etc.)...
> 
> ...  if nothing else we'd fill a thread with arguing about the scenarios used.



Back when the "Aftermath" RPG came out, I thought that they overrated the protection of motorcycle helmets. I took an older one to my favourite plinking location and put a .44 hollow point through it. Might as well have been made of cardboard.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Might as well have been made of cardboard.




Yes, well, it is intended to protect your head from pavement, not bullets.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Yes, well, it is intended to protect your head from pavement, not bullets.



Obviously, but the Aftermath rules implied otherwise. Trust me; I'm well acquainted with the construction and purpose of motorcycle gear


----------



## Zardnaar

I'm pretty good with my mask wearing. I don't usually wear it walking down the street unless I'm in town. 

 Use is close to 100% in the local supermarkets and generally avoid the shops.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> Back when the "Aftermath" RPG came out, I thought that they overrated the protection of motorcycle helmets. I took an older one to my favourite plinking location and put a .44 hollow point through it. Might as well have been made of cardboard.




Range matters more with penetration on most guns than almost any game system accounts for.  There's also some big differences in how well various weapons penetrate versus how they do damage (some relatively small caliber rounds will punch through armor that will often do pretty trivial damage unless they hit a vital organ, while some bladed weapons will rip you up pretty good but have really substandard penetration).  Even Aftermath wasn't going to go down that rabbit hole, so the armor values are sort of averages against a lot of different things.


----------



## Umbran

Okay, folks.  SARS-COV-2 is not a bullet.  If you want to argue over ballistics, take it to another thread, please.


----------



## Ryujin

Noted. Post deleted.


----------



## Imaculata

Another issue that is underreported, is the effects of all the medication after 'recovery' from covid.


Just when you thought the worst was behind you. Note that deliriums are not just a risk for covid patients. It can affect anyone that is put into a coma.


----------



## Zardnaar

Went to bakery and frozens shop. 

 Mask use was 100% even though both places don't have to use vaccine passport. 

 You get the odd asshat in the media but seems fairly good locally.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Tomorrow, we’ll be going to our 4th(?) mass.  There haven’t been a masked majority at any sofa, so I’m glad Mom & Dad have been joining me in the narthex, basically away from everyone.

(Masked, of course.)


----------



## Mirtek

In Germany those cloth/community masks were forbidden month ago.

You are required at least a surgical mask and in some states you are required to wear FFP2 or you are considers unmasked and fined accordingly / denied entrance, even if you are wearing a cloth mask.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> In Germany those cloth/community masks were forbidden month ago.
> 
> You are required at least a surgical mask and in some states you are required to wear FFP2 or you are considers unmasked and fined accordingly / denied entrance, even if you are wearing a cloth mask.




 Here they're fine, I think our ones use triple layers. 

 Generally I use surgical masks anyway and store them at home and in the car so if I forget they're not to far away.

 Using a bandana or whatever is semi useless. 

 Social distancing here. 






 Met a cool dog though.


----------



## Hussar

I don't even know what an n95 mask looks like.  No one wears them here - well maybe medical professionals?  Here, it's just the standard disposable masks.  But, everyone wears one 100% of the time.  I went for a walk at 6:30 in the morning the other day, not a person around, walking up the local mountain trail, and I still masked up.

I have students that I've never actually seen their face, despite being in the same room with them week after week for the past two years.  

It utterly baffles me how people STILL haven't gotten the message.  Oh, and Japan now has a rate of about 100-200 cases per day.  For the entire country.  My ken (state) has been single digits or zero cases for two months now.  

It's really frustrating.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> I don't even know what an n95 mask looks like.  No one wears them here - well maybe medical professionals?  Here, it's just the standard disposable masks.  But, everyone wears one 100% of the time.  I went for a walk at 6:30 in the morning the other day, not a person around, walking up the local mountain trail, and I still masked up.
> 
> I have students that I've never actually seen their face, despite being in the same room with them week after week for the past two years.
> 
> It utterly baffles me how people STILL haven't gotten the message.  Oh, and Japan now has a rate of about 100-200 cases per day.  For the entire country.  My ken (state) has been single digits or zero cases for two months now.
> 
> It's really frustrating.




 Different culture.


----------



## Hussar

Really?  It's that different?  Look, it took three pandemics hitting this country in the last 20 years to get things to where they are.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Really?  It's that different?  Look, it took three pandemics hitting this country in the last 20 years to get things to where they are.




 Danny posted the differences a while ago. 

 One can look at the differences between Aussie/Canada/NZ/UK/USA responses let alone Japan.


----------



## GreyLord

I wear N95s.  Fitted correctly they are supposed to stop 95% of all particles...and because of that actually DO provide protection.

I also have another which is far more drastic (normally made for chemicals) which is N100 rated.  It stops ALL particles...but I look like Bane if I wear it.  So...I don't wear that one normally.


----------



## GreyLord

Mannahnin said:


> You might enjoy the microcovid risk calculator.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.microcovid.org/




This is really cool.

Unfortunately, entering in information just on going to the Grocery Store indicates that it is a Dangerously High Risk normally.

If I manage to go when it first opens in the morning during a weekday (other than Friday) or really late, like 15 minutes before it closes it shows I have a mere High Risk chance.

I think I'm screwed.  Should I mention that it seems I'm one of the few that actually take it seriously where I live?

PS:  That is calculated with me wearing a KN95 or N95 mask.  I already know those around me won't be wearing masks normally, and I think a majority are not vaccinated either...sooooooo....

Even the grocery store seems dangerous.


----------



## Mannahnin

GreyLord said:


> This is really cool.
> 
> Unfortunately, entering in information just on going to the Grocery Store indicates that it is a Dangerously High Risk normally.
> 
> If I manage to go when it first opens in the morning during a weekday (other than Friday) or really late, like 15 minutes before it closes it shows I have a mere High Risk chance.
> 
> I think I'm screwed.  Should I mention that it seems I'm one of the few that actually take it seriously where I live?
> 
> PS:  That is calculated with me wearing a KN95 or N95 mask.  I already know those around me won't be wearing masks normally, and I think a majority are not vaccinated either...sooooooo....
> 
> Even the grocery store seems dangerous.



Wow.  How long do you go for?  What's the average risk in microcovids for your area?

The preset grocery run scenarios assume a 60 minute trip, but I usually am in and out much more quickly than that.  If I build a custom scenario, for a 15 minute errand with an average of 3 people within 5 meters of me at any given time, these people on average being 6+ feet away from me, of average risk for my area (16,000 microcovids themselves), them having unknown vax status and me wearing a surgical mask (I wear one of those or a high-end woven plastic one that fits snugly), assuming they're unmasked and any who are speaking are doing so at normal volume, I get Moderate risk: 35% of my weekly Standard budget (target 1% risk of Covid per year). 

That scenario is probably a little bit optimistic on time and maybe on distancing for a longer trip, but I know that we have a decent percent vaccinated (especially in the city), very few people are actually talking, and some other folks are wearing masks, so those factors help in a positive direction.  I could improve it further with an N95, of course, and perhaps I should at least until more folks have their boosters.


----------



## Mannahnin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Tomorrow, we’ll be going to our 4th(?) mass.  There haven’t been a masked majority at any sofa, so I’m glad Mom & Dad have been joining me in the narthex, basically away from everyone.
> 
> (Masked, of course.)



Definitely one of the things I've missed the most has been communal singing at religious services.  It really sucks that indoor communal singing is one of the riskiest possible activities (as was demonstrated dramatically with one of the first big superspreader breakouts in South Korea early in the pandemic, despite their generally-excellent protocols).


----------



## Ryujin

I went on a major grocery run on Saturday. All supermarkets here have arrows on the floor in order to direct flow, and maintain maximum possible social distancing. I feel like maybe 3 of us, out of maybe a hundred in the store, were paying attention to them. More than once I had to turn around and go down a different lane, because two or three carts were fully blocking the lane after coming in the "wrong" way.

Of course I didn't completely maintain the "right" direction all the time either, however, I was doing things like going 10 feet into an empty aisle to get something near the end, or quickly cutting across 15 feet between stands in the produce aisle, with no one around.


----------



## Mannahnin

Ryujin said:


> I went on a major grocery run on Saturday. All supermarkets here have arrows on the floor in order to direct flow, and maintain maximum possible social distancing. I feel like maybe 3 of us, out of maybe a hundred in the store, were paying attention to them. More than once I had to turn around and go down a different lane, because two or three carts were fully blocking the lane after coming in the "wrong" way.
> 
> Of course I didn't completely maintain the "right" direction all the time either, however, I was doing things like going 10 feet into an empty aisle to get something near the end, or quickly cutting across 15 feet between stands in the produce aisle, with no one around.



Grocery stores near me abandoned directional lane restrictions after the vaccines became widely available, sadly.  Adherence wasn't great even before then; I suspect poor adherence was a factor in them giving up on the idea.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

GreyLord said:


> This is really cool.
> 
> Unfortunately, entering in information just on going to the Grocery Store indicates that it is a Dangerously High Risk normally.
> 
> If I manage to go when it first opens in the morning during a weekday (other than Friday) or really late, like 15 minutes before it closes it shows I have a mere High Risk chance.
> 
> I think I'm screwed. * Should I mention that it seems I'm one of the few that actually take it seriously where I live?*




I feel you on this. AFAIK, I haven't had the COVID. I've gotten the two jabs and the booster.

But I'm starting to feel so worn down because of what I see around me. No one (NO ONE) is taking things seriously. Even in the supermarket, while the employees are masked, it's maybe 1/5 of shoppers are masked. At most?

No one where I'm at is masking. No one takes it seriously. It's this weird disconnect between what I see and hear and know is coming, and what I see when I look around me.


----------



## GreyLord

Mannahnin said:


> Wow.  How long do you go for?  What's the average risk in microcovids for your area?
> 
> The preset grocery run scenarios assume a 60 minute trip, but I usually am in and out much more quickly than that.  If I build a custom scenario, for a 15 minute errand with an average of 3 people within 5 meters of me at any given time, these people on average being 6+ feet away from me, of average risk for my area (16,000 microcovids themselves), them having unknown vax status and me wearing a surgical mask (I wear one of those or a high-end woven plastic one that fits snugly), assuming they're unmasked and any who are speaking are doing so at normal volume, I get Moderate risk: 35% of my weekly Standard budget (target 1% risk of Covid per year).
> 
> That scenario is probably a little bit optimistic on time and maybe on distancing for a longer trip, but I know that we have a decent percent vaccinated (especially in the city), very few people are actually talking, and some other folks are wearing masks, so those factors help in a positive direction.  I could improve it further with an N95, of course, and perhaps I should at least until more folks have their boosters.




My area isn't exactly the most pro-vaccination.  I go to the grocery about once a week.  It is actually about an hour.  When I go, I'm an generally the only one who is masked up and even trying to social distance.  Others will even get in your personal space on purpose if they see you wearing  mask sometimes.  

It's been very hard on me sometimes in my area.  They are very anti-science (I suppose that's the best way one could put it without being political) and very hostile at times to those who follow medical advice or other scientific items.


----------



## Ryujin

Mannahnin said:


> Grocery stores near me abandoned directional lane restrictions after the vaccines became widely available, sadly.  Adherence wasn't great even before then; I suspect poor adherence was a factor in them giving up on the idea.



Sadly, adherence to directional lanes just has never really been a thing here. In some stores it's likely because the directionality just wasn't really well thought out in the first place making its use clumsy, at best, but the aisles in the supermarket _were_ well laid out for direction.


----------



## J.Quondam

GreyLord said:


> My area isn't exactly the most pro-vaccination.  I go to the grocery about once a week.  It is actually about an hour.  When I go, I'm an generally the only one who is masked up and even trying to social distance.  Others will even get in your personal space on purpose if they see you wearing  mask sometimes.
> 
> It's been very hard on me sometimes in my area.  They are very anti-science (I suppose that's the best way one could put it without being political) and very hostile at times to those who follow medical advice or other scientific items.



I feel your pain. I live in such an area, too, where wearing a mask often draws sneers and condemnation. A few weeks ago, a _nurse_ in a _hospital_ lobby went out of her way to inform me that masks aren't required there, and the stink-eye I got when I said "okay" but kept it on was truly Sauronian.

It's so disheartening and so exhausting to witness so many people derive such joy from being giant throbbing dks toward fellow human beings. It really has taken a serious toll on my faith in humanity, and depresses me utterly.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

J.Quondam said:


> I feel your pain. I live in such an area, too, where wearing a mask often draws sneers and condemnation. A few weeks ago, a _nurse_ in a _hospital_ lobby went out of her way to inform me that masks aren't required there, and the stink-eye I got when I said "okay" but kept it on was truly Sauronian.
> 
> It's so disheartening and so exhausting to witness so many people derive such joy from being giant throbbing dks toward fellow human beings. It really has taken a serious toll on my faith in humanity, and depresses me utterly.




Ugh. I know. 

Look, I understand (well, not really, but I fake it) people that aren't doing the right thing. 

But the people that aggressively and angrily make a point of going after those of us who are trying to do the right thing? C'mon. If you can't be part of the solution, at least don't be part of the problem.

(That said, a person near and dear to me has the opposite issue- they are positively gleeful that Omicron is going to rip through the unvaccinated. It's some version of covidfreude, I guess?)


----------



## Zardnaar

5 months after delta got out here. 

28 cases daily cases 









						Covid-19 update: 28 new community cases today, returnee who didn't complete isolation left with child
					

There are 28 new cases of Covid-19 in the community, and no new Omicron cases in Managed Isolation and Quarantine (MIQ).




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Vaccination rate north of 90%. It's like science or something. 57 in hospital, 7 in ICU. 






						Nelson-Marlborough to hit 90% fully vaccinated today; 28 community cases; 57 in hospital; 7 in ICU
					

COVID-19 and vaccine update for 21 December 2021.




					www.health.govt.nz
				




Border reopening plans collapsed with omnicron though. No cases of omnicron in community yet.

 Supermarkets here have lines on the ground near the checkouts for distancing. Anecdotally mask use us close to 100% indoors at least. All the checkouts have a perspex screen.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Just as a heads up, especially to the unvaccinated: at least one of the antibody treatments seems to be less effective against Omicron.  Remdesivir, though, seems to still be potent enough to be useful.


----------



## Zardnaar

They've lowered the wait time for boosters from 6 months to 4. Went to website to book but they haven't updated the software yet to allow 4 months instead of 6. 

  Bureaucracy same the world over.


----------



## Imaculata

The Netherlands is ramping up their booster campaign, but they are once again chasing after the facts, as seems to be the trend of our current cabinet. Omicron is already here, and I don't have my booster shot yet (like the majority of our country), and I won't be able to get it until early next year. So the hospitals are almost surely going to get overwhelmed by covid patients during the final stretch of the year. Meanwhile, I can't even ride a train without at least a few people being unmasked, and several others not pulling their mask all the way across nose and mouth.

I find myself in a situation where I am planning around the incompetence of others, to minimize my own risk of exposure. As Christmas approaches, I may have to take a train early as I join my family, to avoid a crowded train full of idiots.


----------



## CleverNickName

My wife and I got our vaccine boosters last week.  Of the three Covid-19 vaccinations I've gotten (all Pfizer), only the booster caused some bad side effects for me.  I felt completely exhausted for days afterward.

You know that feeling you get when you stay up all night and then try to go to work the next morning, where you feel tired and woozy with that dull headache and burning eyes and you can't concentrate on anything for very long?  It felt like that, and no amount of sleep, exercise, or coffee would help it.  It took three days to get back up to a full battery.

Still:  if that's the worst, I can deal.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> The Netherlands is ramping up their booster campaign, but they are once again chasing after the facts, as seems to be the trend of our current cabinet. Omicron is already here, and I don't have my booster shot yet (like the majority of our country), and I won't be able to get it until early next year. So the hospitals are almost surely going to get overwhelmed by covid patients during the final stretch of the year. Meanwhile, I can't even ride a train without at least a few people being unmasked, and several others not pulling their mask all the way across nose and mouth.
> 
> I find myself in a situation where I am planning around the incompetence of others, to minimize my own risk of exposure. As Christmas approaches, I may have to take a train early as I join my family, to avoid a crowded train full of idiots.




 Basic things so different. Haven't been on a train in years except a few years ago when they did a scenic trip down the coast in a steam train.


----------



## Hussar

I gotta admit, I am stunned that covid didn't hit Japan harder.  I mean, outside of a very few countries, no one rides more public transportation than the Japanese.  And, the trains never stopped.  I still am in utter shock that we weren't hit way harder.


----------



## Zardnaar

First US Omnicron death a reinfection apparently. 


 Not sure if the source is good but it was posted on another thread elsewhere.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> I gotta admit, I am stunned that covid didn't hit Japan harder.  I mean, outside of a very few countries, no one rides more public transportation than the Japanese.  And, the trains never stopped.  I still am in utter shock that we weren't hit way harder.




 Our cases with delta hit 200/day. Then declined down to 28 today. Delta got here in August. Still covid free locally I was expecting it by Christmas.


----------



## Mannahnin

Zardnaar said:


> 5 months after delta got out here.
> 
> 28 cases daily cases
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19 update: 28 new community cases today, returnee who didn't complete isolation left with child
> 
> 
> There are 28 new cases of Covid-19 in the community, and no new Omicron cases in Managed Isolation and Quarantine (MIQ).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Vaccination rate north of 90%. It's like science or something. 57 in hospital, 7 in ICU.



New Hampshire's vaccination rate (our population ~1.38 million) is 66.4% fully vaxxed; a bit ahead of the overall US rate of 61.5%.  Our immediate neighbor states are Vermont (650k pop, 76.6% fully vaxxed), Maine (1.37mm, 75.1% fully vaxxed), and Massachusetts (7.1 million, 74% fully vaxxed), and due North the Province of Quebec (8.6 million, 77.5% fully vaxxed).

My hospital alone (fewer than 100 beds) has twenty covid cases and around the same number in the ICU as your country.  :/


----------



## Maxperson

CleverNickName said:


> Got my third vaccine (the "booster") the other day.  I didn't really have any side effects at all from the first two injections, but that third one was a doozy and left me tired, achy, and queasy for about 12 hours afterward.  It was nothing that soup and ibuprophen couldn't fix, but it was surprising given my history with the other Covid-19 vaccines.



I feel you.  That happened to me.  Not achy, but tired and nauseas, with associated loss of appetite.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> I have my moments.
> 
> I have a friend who is _moving to Florida_.  I find that hard to fathom, even from the context that the House of Mouse is pretty much his favorite place on the planet.



You should let him know that we have one here in Southern California, which is much saner with vaccination rates.


----------



## Thomas Shey

CleverNickName said:


> My wife and I got our vaccine boosters last week.  Of the three Covid-19 vaccinations I've gotten (all Pfizer), only the booster caused some bad side effects for me.  I felt completely exhausted for days afterward.
> 
> You know that feeling you get when you stay up all night and then try to go to work the next morning, where you feel tired and hazy with that dull headache and burning eyes and you can't concentrate on anything for very long?  It felt like that, and no amount of sleep, exercise, or coffee would help it.  It took three days to get back up to a full battery.
> 
> Still:  if that's the worst, I can deal.




That was what I felt like the day after my second Moderna shot (though I didn't have the headache or the burning eyes, just the fatigue and lack of focus).

You aren't the only person I've heard of have a stronger reaction to the booster than the original shots, though.


----------



## Maxperson

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Shortly thereafter, you will learn that the Disney secret police are large, burly, and overly-serious when it comes to their "Don't get out of the boat, sir" orders.
> 
> ...or so I hear.



Same here.  My wife has reported to me that when as a teen she jumped out of the Pirates of the Caribbean boat onto the treasure room to check out the gold coins, there was no sense of humor from Disney..........................or her father.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Maxperson said:


> Same here.  My wife has reported to me that when as a teen she jumped out of the Pirates of the Caribbean boat onto the treasure room to check out the gold coins, there was no sense of humor from Disney..........................or her father.




True Facts:

1. Disney has a lot of security.

2. Disney has plain-clothes security.

3. In order to be hired by Disney for security, you must have your sense of humor surgically removed.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Snarf Zagyg said:


> True Facts:
> 
> 1. Disney has a lot of security.
> 
> 2. Disney has plain-clothes security.
> 
> 3. In order to be hired by Disney for security, you must have your sense of humor surgically removed.




That describes most serious security, honestly (says the man who did security many years ago).


----------



## Maxperson

Snarf Zagyg said:


> True Facts:
> 
> 1. Disney has a lot of security.
> 
> 2. Disney has plain-clothes security.
> 
> 3. In order to be hired by Disney for security, you must have your sense of humor surgically removed.



Disney is also scary with their ability to track people with their cameras.  I once had the opportunity to go to Club 33 as a guest.  The group I was with wandered the park having a great time.  We even split up at one point coming to Club 33 lunch as 3 different groups.  When we got there and were going to knock on the door, it just opened.  After entering I asked how they knew it was us and was told that they had been tracking us by camera all day so that they would know precisely when we arrived.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Maxperson said:


> Disney is also scary with their ability to track people with their cameras.  I once had the opportunity to go to Club 33 as a guest.  The group I was with wandered the park having a great time.  We even split up at one point coming to Club 33 lunch as 3 different groups.  When we got there and were going to knock on the door, it just opened.  After entering I asked how they knew it was us and was told that they had been tracking us by camera all day so that they would know precisely when we arrived.




Not just cameras- at this time, they also have magic band technology (RFID) and also use their app to track you around the parks. They have fingerprint scanners at entrances, and have tested their facial recognition for park entrances.

In short, Disney leads the way in making sure that every last dollar is extracted from each customer, and also making sure that you will have the exact allotted amount of fun, but never more. NEVER MORE.


----------



## Imaculata

Zardnaar said:


> First US Omnicron death a reinfection apparently.




It takes a special kind of stupid to catch covid twice, and still refuse getting vaccinated after that first infection. He basically dodged a bullet, and concluded that he must be invincible!

Are we done with these people yet? I'm looking at my field of F's to give, and am finding it barren. I'm all out of sympathy.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Imaculata said:


> It takes a special kind of stupid to catch covid twice, and still refuse getting vaccinated after that first infection. He basically dodged a bullet, and concluded that he must be invincible!
> 
> Are we done with these people yet? I'm looking at my field of F's to give, and am finding it barren. I'm all out of sympathy.




This is shockingly common. In fact, one of the biggest arguments I've heard is that people who have caught it shouldn't have to get vaccinated, and should be exempt from any vaccination requirements. Most of them view it like Chicken Pox. 

Again, this isn't really based in intelligence or rational thinking.


----------



## J.Quondam

Imaculata said:


> It takes a special kind of stupid to catch covid twice, and still refuse getting vaccinated after that first infection. He basically dodged a bullet, and concluded that he must be invincible!
> 
> Are we done with these people yet? I'm looking at my field of F's to give, and am finding it barren. I'm all out of sympathy.



Too many idiots think all viruses work the same way. _"Time for a covid par-TAY!! Once you get it, you're immune! Yeehaw!"_ As if it's chicken pox something.


----------



## Istbor

I think we just heard a report this week that my state's hospitals are looking at 95% of all ICU beds being occupied. And 93% of all beds in use. All according to the DHS.Wisconsin.gov.


----------



## Ryujin

I was a week late registering for my booster, based on age group. When I checked on the Provincial appointment website, there were no appointments available. I then checked local pharmacies and booked an appointment for the best I could do, which was second week of February. Just got back from taking my mother to a doctor's appointment and since my GP is part of the same group, I asked if they were doing boosters. I now have an appointment for my third dose of Moderna for tomorrow afternoon


----------



## Mannahnin

For folks having trouble scheduling a booster, definitely check whether your local city, state (or equivalent) health department has walk-ins.

I've had friends locally report having to schedule out a month or more for a shot at local pharmacies, when the city health department has two hours of walk-ins every Monday morning and Wednesday afternoon.  And there are other fixed walk-in centers in more rural parts of the state with Saturday hours as well.  

Edit: And a mobile vaccination van traveling around the state!


			https://www.vaccines.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt581/files/inline-documents/2021-09/van-locations3.pdf


----------



## Rabulias

Snarf Zagyg said:


> This is shockingly common. In fact, one of the biggest arguments I've heard is that people who have caught it shouldn't have to get vaccinated, and should be exempt from any vaccination requirements. Most of them view it like Chicken Pox.
> 
> Again, this isn't really based in intelligence or rational thinking.











						Immunity
					






					www.xkcd.com


----------



## Ryujin

Rabulias said:


> Immunity
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.xkcd.com



I'm old enough to remember parents having Chicken Pox/Measles "parties", in which they would get their kids together to play with a kid who already had the disease. Get them sick and get it over with. I've now got to deal with the possibility of Shingles every decade or so, precisely because I was one of those kids. I'm now almost 7 years in for the last outbreak and going to get vaxxed, a few months after my next Covid booster.


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

Ryujin said:


> I'm old enough to remember parents having Chicken Pox/Measles "parties", in which they would get their kids together to play with a kid who already had the disease. Get them sick and get it over with. I've now got to deal with the possibility of Shingles every decade or so, precisely because I was one of those kids. I'm now almost 7 years in for the last outbreak and going to get vaxxed, a few months after my next Covid booster.



I was also one of those kids that had their parents allow them to catch Chicken Pox because they didn't see any point in getting me vaccinated against it. 

My mother had me get every other vaccination throughout my whole life, but not that one. 

I'm really not looking forward to catching Shingles.


----------



## Bolares

Omicron has not impacted my state in Brazil heavilly yet. My city has no one on the ICU for 40 days straight now.


----------



## billd91

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I was also one of those kids that had their parents allow them to catch Chicken Pox because they didn't see any point in getting me vaccinated against it.
> 
> My mother had me get every other vaccination throughout my whole life, but not that one.
> 
> I'm really not looking forward to catching Shingles.



I'm old enough to have had chicken pox before there was the varicella vaccine. I got it when my older sister brought it home from kindergarten.
But I have gotten my shingles vaccine. So, even if you didn't get the varicella vaccine as a kid, you're not out of luck in preventing shingles.


----------



## Ryujin

AcererakTriple6 said:


> I was also one of those kids that had their parents allow them to catch Chicken Pox because they didn't see any point in getting me vaccinated against it.
> 
> My mother had me get every other vaccination throughout my whole life, but not that one.
> 
> I'm really not looking forward to catching Shingles.



As with @billd91, vaccination wasn't an option for me at the time.


----------



## J.Quondam

billd91 said:


> I'm old enough to have had chicken pox before there was the varicella vaccine. I got it when my older sister brought it home from kindergarten.
> But I have gotten my shingles vaccine. So, even if you didn't get the varicella vaccine as a kid, you're not out of luck in preventing shingles.





Afaik, the shingles vaccine is  generally recommended at age 50+ in the US, right? But it's not uncommon to have a shingles outbreak in your 40s or 30s. I _think_ some doctors will let you get vaxxed earlier? But I have no idea what goes into that sort of decision. Might be worth asking a doc, though.

(The upshot is, once you get shingles, you _probably_ won't get it again... but iirc, the recommendation is to go ahead at get vaxxed anyway, even if you had an outbreak before age 50.)


----------



## Thomas Shey

J.Quondam said:


> Yep, same here. Except I was the one to bring it home from kindergarten and spread it to my brothers.
> 
> Afaik, the shingles vaccine is  generally recommended at age 50+ in the US, right? But it's not uncommon to have a shingles outbreak in your 40s or 30s. I was 47 when I got it, and all my brothers got it in their mid- to late-30s; and I've known several other people who also got it earlier than 50.
> 
> I _think_ some doctors will let you get vaxxed earlier? But I have no idea what goes into that sort of decision. Might be worth asking a doc, though.
> 
> (The upshot is, once you get shingles, you _probably_ won't get it again... but iirc, the recommendation is to go ahead at get vaxxed anyway, even if you had an outbreak before age 50.)




My wife's had it twice, once in her teens and once in her early forties.  She can't wait until she can get the vaccine.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

J.Quondam said:


> Yep, same here. Except I was the one to bring it home from kindergarten and spread it to my brothers.
> 
> Afaik, the shingles vaccine is  generally recommended at age 50+ in the US, right? But it's not uncommon to have a shingles outbreak in your 40s or 30s. I was 47 when I got it, and all my brothers got it in their mid- to late-30s; and I've known several other people who also got it earlier than 50.
> 
> I _think_ some doctors will let you get vaxxed earlier? But I have no idea what goes into that sort of decision. Might be worth asking a doc, though.
> 
> (The upshot is, once you get shingles, you _probably_ won't get it again... but iirc, the recommendation is to go ahead at get vaxxed anyway, even if you had an outbreak before age 50.)



I actually have a friend who has had shingles twice.  She’s one reason I got shingrix #1 in September.  (Need to get #2 scheduled.)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> I gotta admit, I am stunned that covid didn't hit Japan harder.  I mean, outside of a very few countries, no one rides more public transportation than the Japanese.  And, the trains never stopped.  I still am in utter shock that we weren't hit way harder.



It’s the habitual masking when sick and- from what I understand- better hygiene re:hand washing that accounts for a big chunk of it.

A truism my Dad often recites from his days earning his MPH is that public health measures have saved more lives than medicine ever will.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s the habitual masking when sick and- from what I understand- better hygiene re:hand washing that accounts for a big chunk of it.
> 
> A truism my Dad often recites from his days earning his MPH is that public health measures have saved more lives than medicine ever will.




 They're big on prevention here. Kids used to get sent off to health camps. Mandatory PE until around year 3 of highschool. 

 Also an excuse to underfund the health system for a few decades. Pre Covid I think around 80% of ICU beds were in use at any given time.

 No opioid epidemic though as an NZ doctors idea of painkillers is essentially take some strong panadol (codeine infused double strength panadole essentially) and walk it off.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I actually have a friend who has had shingles twice.  She’s one reason I got shingrix #1 in September.  (Need to get #2 scheduled.)




My wife was super concerned when she had it (over and above the gross discomfort) because to the best of my knowledge I'd never had chicken pox (when I went to my doctor afterwards to test for it, turned out I'd remembered correctly; and let me tell you locally it was no small chore finding the adult chicken pox vaccine, either).  Fortunately, the combination of caution and my robust immune system prevented me from getting chicken pox from her, but it wasn't an unfounded concern.

The only good thing now is if you figure out you're having a shingles outbreak early, there are antivirals that can minimize it; unfortunately it took us a few days to figure out that was what was going on so the first outbreak site was still super unpleasant, but it hosed down the spread at least.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Researchers at Walter Reed may have developed a “pan-coronavirus” vaccine- one that works against all variants of COVID…plus SARS.








						US Army Creates Single Vaccine Against All COVID & SARS Variants, Researchers Say
					

Within weeks, Walter Reed researchers expect to announce that human trials show success against Omicron—and even future strains.




					www.defenseone.com


----------



## FitzTheRuke

I have no recollection of ever having had Chicken Pox, but when my daughter caught it as a baby (a week or two before she was scheduled for her vaccination) I somehow managed to not get it, in spite of taking care of her. I have to assume that I had such a mild case that no one noticed, and now have immunity.

My poor wife got Shingles at 40, before she was able to get a vaccine. It sucked. I haven't had that either, knock on wood.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Researchers at Walter Reed may have developed a “pan-coronavirus” vaccine- one that works against all variants of COVID…plus SARS.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US Army Creates Single Vaccine Against All COVID & SARS Variants, Researchers Say
> 
> 
> Within weeks, Walter Reed researchers expect to announce that human trials show success against Omicron—and even future strains.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.defenseone.com




So, the writing there seems a bit overblown, but cool that they have something that may be useful.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> So, the writing there seems a bit overblown, but cool that they have something that may be useful.



It’s not gone through the full peer-review process, hence their delay in a formal announcement, but with this and the similar announcement about a potential vaccine for HIV, I’d have to say the people in white coats have been pretty hot lately.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s not gone through the full peer-review process, hence their delay in a formal announcement, but with this and the similar announcement about a potential vaccine for HIV, I’d have to say the people in white coats have been pretty hot lately.




Oh, yeah.  And omicron-specific mRNA vaccines going into testing in January is awesome, too.

It is the claim that the military's new vaccine handles _ALL_ variants, current and future, that looks overblown.


----------



## Thomas Shey

FitzTheRuke said:


> I have no recollection of ever having had Chicken Pox, but when my daughter caught it as a baby (a week or two before she was scheduled for her vaccination) I somehow managed to not get it, in spite of taking care of her. I have to assume that I had such a mild case that no one noticed, and now have immunity.




Or you caught it so young you've forgotten.  That was distinctly a possibility in my case before I got tested.


----------



## Ryujin

Pfizer booster instead of a third Moderna. I'm good with it.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Thomas Shey said:


> Or you caught it so young you've forgotten.  That was distinctly a possibility in my case before I got tested.



Yeah, although my parents didn't know that I'd ever had it either.


----------



## Thomas Shey

FitzTheRuke said:


> Yeah, although my parents didn't know that I'd ever had it either.



Yeah, that makes it less likely; mine were long gone before it came up.


----------



## Zardnaar

Words come down from on high at my wife's work. No vaccine by February no job. 

 Some companies don't follow the rules. Often yoga studios (alternative types) and gyms/martial art (tough guys) type places. 









						Covid-19: Martial arts centre fined $12k for not meeting vaccine requirements
					

WorkSafe has issued an infringement notice to martial arts and fitness centre Oliver MMA for having unvaccinated staff.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




12k (9k usd approx) poorer.


----------



## Imaculata

Zardnaar said:


> Some companies don't follow the rules. Often yoga studios (alternative types) and gyms/martial art (tough guys)




And slowly the world becomes a better place. This year we've lost a lot of selfish jerks who are proud to be jerks.

And those we haven't lost (yet) have gotten fines.


----------



## Mannahnin

Ryujin said:


> Pfizer booster instead of a third Moderna. I'm good with it.



Did the same.  Thinking about going out for a J&J to complete the (US) set.


----------



## Ryujin

Mannahnin said:


> Did the same.  Thinking about going out for a J&J to complete the (US) set.



I was originally scheduled for a third dose of Moderna, but their shipment didn't come in. Given that more than a few are commenting that a mix & match approach seems to have good results, I'm not concerned. A day later I've got a slightly sore shoulder and a little sniffling, that could be attributable to having worn a mask for an hour and a half while getting groceries this morning.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mannahnin said:


> Did the same.  Thinking about going out for a J&J to complete the (US) set.



Poke-man!  Gotta get ‘em all!*






* just don’t be THIS guy.








						Man takes 10 COVID vaccine shots in single day
					

A man who was vaccinated against COVID-19 up to 10 times in one day on behalf of other people has sparked an investigation.




					nypost.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Poke-man!  Gotta get ‘em all!*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> * just don’t be THIS guy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Man takes 10 COVID vaccine shots in single day
> 
> 
> A man who was vaccinated against COVID-19 up to 10 times in one day on behalf of other people has sparked an investigation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nypost.com




 Proud kiwi lol. Think he was farming vaccine passports iirc.


----------



## MoonSong

I'm sad and angry. This is my story...

One of my cousins isn't vaccinated and has ended up with a mild case of Covid. Now the Christmas plans are derailed, we won't be able to gather with them. My brother gave a ride to my cousins the other day and is a possible carrier.
And guess who else has been exposed to my brother ever since? -yes myself-. I might have to quarantine and might not be able to spend Christmas with my parents or anybody while at that. 

I am vaccinated, but I only got one of these Chinese one dose shots, which give like 60% protection and have a limited response after six months -I wanted a two shot vaccine, but that is the one I was given. I could have risked my job if I had rejected it to wait for a better one-. The worst part is I could have avoided getting exposed to my brother -because I wanted to remain home to help my mother with all of the cooking-, but he really needed me to do him a favor and all but dragged me along.  

(Did I mention there is a non-zero chance that this could be my Dad's last Christmas? We don't know yet, any official diagnosis will be given to us in January, but it could either be a good prognosis -a surgery and recovery with long time to live- or a very bad one -some months and change-)

U.U.oO


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> I'm sad and angry. This is my story...
> 
> One of my cousins isn't vaccinated and has ended up with a mild case of Covid. Now the Christmas plans are derailed, we won't be able to gather with them. My brother gave a ride to my cousins the other day and is a possible carrier.
> And guess who else has been exposed to my brother ever since? -yes myself-. I might have to quarantine and might not be able to spend Christmas with my parents or anybody while at that.
> 
> I am vaccinated, but I only got one of these Chinese one dose shots, which give like 60% protection and have a limited response after six months -I wanted a two shot vaccine, but that is the one I was given. I could have risked my job if I had rejected it to wait for a better one-. The worst part is I could have avoided getting exposed to my brother -because I wanted to remain home to help my mother with all of the cooking-, but he really needed me to do him a favor and all but dragged me along.
> 
> (Did I mention there is a non-zero chance that this could be my Dad's last Christmas? We don't know yet, any official diagnosis will be given to us in January, but it could either be a good prognosis -a surgery and recovery with long time to live- or a very bad one -some months and change-)
> 
> U.U.oO



 Good luck chief.


----------



## Imaculata

That's horrible. I feel for you.


----------



## Mannahnin

MoonSong said:


> I'm sad and angry. This is my story...



I'm very sorry to hear this.  One of my best friends has just been confirmed positive, and his family LOVE Christmas.  Baking, giant decorations in the yard, the whole nine yards.  My friend and his wife have a young daughter and his brother (and his wife) has two more, and they were all looking forward to it, and now Kevin has to quarantine.  His daughter may not be able to see her cousins either.  :/


----------



## Eltab

MoonSong said:


> I'm sad and angry. This is my story...
> 
> One of my cousins isn't vaccinated and has ended up with a mild case of Covid. Now the Christmas plans are derailed, we won't be able to gather with them. My brother gave a ride to my cousins the other day and is a possible carrier.
> And guess who else has been exposed to my brother ever since? -yes myself-. I might have to quarantine and might not be able to spend Christmas with my parents or anybody while at that.
> 
> I am vaccinated, but I only got one of these Chinese one dose shots, which give like 60% protection and have a limited response after six months -I wanted a two shot vaccine, but that is the one I was given. I could have risked my job if I had rejected it to wait for a better one-. The worst part is I could have avoided getting exposed to my brother -because I wanted to remain home to help my mother with all of the cooking-, but he really needed me to do him a favor and all but dragged me along.
> 
> (Did I mention there is a non-zero chance that this could be my Dad's last Christmas? We don't know yet, any official diagnosis will be given to us in January, but it could either be a good prognosis -a surgery and recovery with long time to live- or a very bad one -some months and change-)
> 
> U.U.oO



Best wishes to you - your family and you personally.  COVID wrecked my last year's Thanksgiving family get-together (daughter maybe-exposed at college; long story).  Most of you can try again to meet for Epiphany maybe?

I hope you / your Dad get the better news in the end.


----------



## MoonSong

Eltab said:


> Best wishes to you - your family and you personally.  COVID wrecked my last year's Thanksgiving family get-together (daughter maybe-exposed at college; long story).  Most of you can try again to meet for Epiphany maybe?
> 
> I hope you / your Dad get the better news in the end.



I hope so. Thank you and everybody. 

I've just had a PCR test done to me. I'll be getting results later. While I'm almost sure I'm clean -I made a timeline of sorts, even if the exposition was enough for my brother to get sick, it had been less than 36 hours since, possible even barely 24. So maybe not enough for him to be contagious-, I need to wait for the results and wait a bit more to go home. So definitely spending Christmas alone...


----------



## Ryujin

MoonSong said:


> I hope so. Thank you and everybody.
> 
> I've just had a PCR test done to me. I'll be getting results later. While I'm almost sure I'm clean -I made a timeline of sorts, even if the exposition was enough for my brother to get sick, it had been less than 36 hours since, possible even barely 24. So maybe not enough for him to be contagious-, I need to wait for the results and wait a bit more to go home. So definitely spending Christmas alone...



I hope that everything turns out well for you. I'm currently caring for my mother who has stage 4 lung cancer and is on oxygen. It's amazing how hard it can be to explain to relatives that no, you won't be bringing her to a family holiday dinner, with people who have not vaccinated and will not be vaccinated, just because they're "FAAAAAMILY."


----------



## billd91

Ryujin said:


> I hope that everything turns out well for you. I'm currently caring for my mother who has stage 4 lung cancer and is on oxygen. It's amazing how hard it can be to explain to relatives that no, you won't be bringing her to a family holiday dinner, with people who have not vaccinated and will not be vaccinated, just because they're "FAAAAAMILY."



Funny how they won't get vaccinated for "FAAAAAMILY" though, isn't it?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Nail struck on the head.


----------



## Umbran

And, dangit, it looks like I'm gong to have to cancel my vacation trip.  Covid cases did not hold to low levels.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> And, dangit, it looks like I'm gong to have to cancel my vacation trip.  Covid cases did not hold to low levels.



Have they risen to the levels you are experiencing at home?


----------



## Umbran

Maxperson said:


> Have they risen to the levels you are experiencing at home?




Over the course of a week and a half, they jumped _over_ what I'm experiencing at home, adjusting for population.

I was being vague in a superstitious attempt not to jinx it - I was planning to go to Puerto Rico.  Their cases were down around 100 per day about 10 days ago, and now are around _5700 per day_.  The key may have been the truly _massive_ concert event that they had a bit over a week ago now.  Like, 100,000 attendees massive.

Their graph of cases looks like this:


Spoiler: New York Times data










So, you can see, just a little while ago, it was low and comfortable, especially for folks expecting to spend most of their time outside in 80F weather.  But now... ugh.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

That’s a big *OOF*.

Superspreader concert event doubtlessly contributed to that, but I’m betting omicron crashed that party to generate a spike like that.

Supposedly, the Omicron variant is about as contagious as measles, which is kinda the King of contagiousness.


----------



## CapnZapp

Until winter is over, either you isolate at home, or you're taking huge risks.

Simple as that.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That’s a big *OOF*.
> 
> Superspreader concert event doubtlessly contributed to that, but I’m betting omicron crashed that party to generate a spike like that.
> 
> Supposedly, the Omicron variant is about as contagious as measles, which is kinda the King of contagiousness.




Yeah.  We went out and did it, but we didn't feel really good about going to the movie last weekend, even though we've had all three shots.


----------



## Baron Opal II

Dannyalcatraz said:


> That’s a big *OOF*.
> 
> Superspreader concert event doubtlessly contributed to that, but I’m betting omicron crashed that party to generate a spike like that.
> 
> Supposedly, the Omicron variant is about as contagious as measles, which is kinda the King of contagiousness.



Wow. That would be impressive. Measles is the most contagious disease there is. I'll have to look into that.

Edit: After a search, Omicron's R-value is around 3-5. Which is impressive! Most diseases are about 0.8-2.

If it wasn't mentioned earlier, R-value is (roughly) the number of people expected to be infected by a person with the disease. Measles has an R-value of 12-15.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Baron Opal II said:


> Wow. That would be impressive. Measles is the most contagious disease there is. I'll have to look into that.
> 
> Edit: After a search, Omicron's R-value is around 3-5. Which is impressive! Most diseases are about 0.8-2.
> 
> If it wasn't mentioned earlier, R-value is (roughly) the number of people expected to be infected by a person with the disease. Measles has an R-value of 12-15.



Some researchers are pegging Omicron’s R value higher.  

One article I read said it was more contagious than measles due to some additional factor, but I can’t find it now.  It’s possible it was withdrawn.  If I can find it again, I’ll post it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This isn’t it, but this is from The Lancet.



> The original strain of SARS-CoV-2 has an R0 of 2·5, while the delta variant (B.1.617.2) has an R0 of just under 7. Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious diseases at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (London, UK), reckons omicron's R0 could be as high as 10.











						Omicron variant and booster COVID-19 vaccines
					

On Dec 13, 2021, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) confirmed that a patient in England had died after contracting the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. The previous day, prime minister Boris Johnson launched a drive to offer all adults in the UK a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by the end...



					www.thelancet.com
				




That puts it right on the heels of the measles.  

Some more researchers are chiming in that it may be less dangerous than previous strains, but with its mutations, it looks like omicron is not affected by most of the monoclonal antibody products except GlaxoSmithKline’s.


----------



## Baron Opal II

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This isn’t it, but this is from The Lancet.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Omicron variant and booster COVID-19 vaccines
> 
> 
> On Dec 13, 2021, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) confirmed that a patient in England had died after contracting the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. The previous day, prime minister Boris Johnson launched a drive to offer all adults in the UK a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by the end...
> 
> 
> 
> www.thelancet.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That puts it right on the heels of the measles.
> 
> Some more researchers are chiming in that it may be less dangerous than previous strains, but with its mutations, it looks like omicron is not affected by most of the monoclonal antibody products except GlaxoSmithKline’s.



Yowza. Well, that is the highest estimate I've come across.

Even those of us in health care are learning new things week to week. Keepin' our tap shoes in good repair.


----------



## Ryujin

Damn. Wrong thread. Deleted.


----------



## NotAYakk

I tasted the vaccine rainbow before Christmas.  AZ first, Pfizer in July, then a Moderna grey market booster in December.

US/Canada border had been open with no testing for short trips, and Ontario wasn't giving boosters to under 50s yet, and Omicron was coming.

So we drove a few hours into USA towards a walmart that had booster doses.  Stopped before getting there because called a pharmacy in a small town we where driving through, and they found our story interesting enough they said we could walk in between scheduled doses.

Turns out NYS system requires a US address.  So I gave him one from a relative who lived in the USA (and told them that was what I was doing).  It is plausible pharmacies in NYS where not supposed to vaccinate non-americans, but instead send them to state clinics.  Hence grey market.

Since then vaccine hunger games took off.  Ontario in response to Omicron opened boosters up to age 18+ and 3 months after 2nd shot.  Just before christmas.  And closed 72 hour border crossing relaxed testing rules.

So "vaccine hunters canada" is again a thing.  Provincial system is overloaded, pharmacies use a mix of disconnected scheduling systems and walk ins, everyone is cancelling vacations, etc.

What a mess.

Testing is overwealmed; restricted to high risk and healthcare workers and the like.  Everyone else told to treat symptoms as reason to isolate.  Contact tracing is busted; case at kid's school got a form letter emailed to kids parents saying what class and what recess group sent like 24 hours later.   Large events with exposure are posted on FB pages.

Number of shots per week has exceeded height of first shot blitz.  Number of cases is also record high, despite lack of testing capacity.

Rapid tests are being supplied, in theory, but through shambolic means.  I did manage to order a bunch pre omicron that just arrived; so I can use them if we get sniffles.

Local health unit leaving bars open but added capacity limits to toboggon hills.  ?!?!?!

Omicron looks like it will infect everyone, and it gives immunity to other strains (they are wiped out, not out competed, when it spreads).  At this point we can hope a combination of it being milder and vaccines and previous infections rolls boxcars and it doen't give us megadeaths.

Merry Christmas.


----------



## Zardnaar

Went to the supermarket today. 




Distancing spaces on the floor. 

 Covers on self checkouts. 



 Staffed checkouts have perspex screen. 

  Mask use was 100% walking around.

 Quiet at 8am Monday morning. Avoid the crowds.


----------



## Umbran

The general advice on masks seems to be changing - that the cloth ones we've been using so far just won't cut it for Omicron.  However, counterfeit N-95 and KN-95 masks are all over the place.

Reliable KN-95 masks can be had for less than a buck a piece from:





__





						Powecom® KN95 - Page 1 - Bona Fide Masks
					






					bonafidemasks.com


----------



## Cadence

In non-Chicago-area northern Illinois for.the holidays.  Mask wearing in stores is 90+%.  Self test kits available at Walgreens (one store only had one case and limit 4, another had a lot more -- didn't need enough to find out about limit there).  Picked some up for my sibling in Chicago too, where they're sold out. 

Guessing mask wearing % will be much lower when we get back to South Carolina.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Went to the supermarket today.
> 
> View attachment 148905
> 
> Distancing spaces on the floor.
> 
> Covers on self checkouts.
> 
> View attachment 148906
> 
> Staffed checkouts have perspex screen.
> 
> Mask use was 100% walking around.
> 
> Quiet at 8am Monday morning. Avoid the crowds.



My practice has been to go to the supermarket before 8:00am on Saturdays. It has been largely successful and mask use is 100%, though some people don't have a clue how to wear them. And then there's the people I mentioned previously who don't understand what a "one way" arrow means.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> My practice has been to go to the supermarket before 8:00am on Saturdays. It has been largely successful and mask use is 100%, though some people don't have a clue how to wear them. And then there's the people I mentioned previously who don't understand what a "one way" arrow means.




 Public holiday here but during lockdown that was our time to visit the supermarket.

 Boring stuff.





__





						Hawke’s Bay poised to hit 90% double-dosed; 34 cases in the community; 41 in hospital; 8 in ICU
					

COVID-19 and vaccine update for 27 December 2021.




					www.health.govt.nz
				




  Vax rates 84% to 95%, 34 new cases, 41 in hospital, 8 ICU.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

One of the local Q-Anon groups is ingesting cocktails including chlorine dioxide as an ingredient, possibly as an alternative Covid treatment.









						Dallas QAnon Cultists Are Drinking Toxic Chemicals from A Communal Bowl, Family Says
					

The family of a Dallas' QAnon cult member is sounding the alarm. Multiple members of the Leek family confirmed that their relative, who left her husband and children behind in Delaware to follow a fringe QAnon cult leader to Dallas last month, has been drinking a chemical cocktail containing...




					www.dallasobserver.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dumb question. Chlorine dioxide? Sounds poisonous anyway.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Dumb question. Chlorine dioxide? Sounds poisonous anyway.



Chlorine dioxide is a chemical disinfectant that is sometimes used to disinfect water.  It is often sold as a less corrosive (and thus, safer) substitute for bleach, but some charlatans sell it as a “miracle” food supplement.





__





						'Miracle' Treatment Turns into Potent Bleach
					

A product marketed on the Internet as a treatment for many illnesses becomes a powerful bleaching agent when used as directed.



					wayback.archive-it.org
				








__





						CHLORINE DIOXIDE: Overview, Uses, Side Effects, Precautions, Interactions, Dosing and Reviews
					

Learn more about CHLORINE DIOXIDE uses, effectiveness, possible side effects, interactions, dosage, user ratings and products that contain CHLORINE DIOXIDE.




					www.webmd.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Bad news/good news about the new Covid pills.

The bad news is that they can have some nasty interactions with some very commonly prescribed drugs and even herbal supplements.  In some cases, the boost the efficacy of those drugs to toxic levels.  So if you’re going to be taking them, be VERY thorough in discussing what meds & supplements you take with your healthcare providers.

OTOH, since the course of treatment using the Covid pills is relatively short (a month or so), you can still take the Covid pills after pausing or greatly reducing the doses on the other meds with minimal risk.









						Pfizer antiviral pills may be risky with other medications
					

Pfizer Covid pills for symptoms may cause harmful reactions if taken with other prescription medications.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Imaculata

I continue to be frustrated by the fact that there are still people who don't know how to properly wear a mask. It's been over 2 years already! Cover your nose + mouth, why is this so hard?

While on the train, I noticed a passenger loudly breathing through his nose, while his mask only covered his mouth. Then what is the bloody point of wearing one?!

Also a quarter of the passengers were wearing their mask wrong like this. The government really should issue some instructions at this point. We should have daily commercials educating people on proper mask use. There were also a few who didn't wear a mask at all, despite regulations requiring them.


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> I continue to be frustrated by the fact that there are still people who don't know how to properly wear a mask.




Don't kid yourself.  They know.  They choose not to.  I expect you'd see them pop the mask up any time they were passing someone who might try to enforce the rules.



Imaculata said:


> While on the train, I noticed a passenger loudly breathing through his nose, while his mask only covered his mouth. Then what is the bloody point of wearing one?!




The point is to say, "See, I have a mask," so folks will leave them alone.



Imaculata said:


> There were also a few who didn't wear a mask at all, despite regulations requiring them.




If the rules are not enforced, there will be some folks who aren't going to follow them.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Imaculata said:


> While on the train, I noticed a passenger loudly breathing through his nose, while his mask only covered his mouth. Then what is the bloody point of wearing one?




You’ve heard of security theater?

Wearing a chin diaper (a mask that does not cover your nose) is COVID theater. Going through the motions without bothering to do any thing of substance.

Or, to quote a person I know who refuses to mask- “Sorry, that doesn’t fit my lifestyle.”  Ugh.

Unfortunately, you just can’t make people care about the welfare of the people around them.


----------



## NotAYakk

Snarf Zagyg said:


> You’ve heard of security theater?
> 
> Wearing a chin diaper (a mask that does not cover your nose) is COVID theater. Going through the motions without bothering to do any thing of substance.
> 
> Or, to quote a person I know who refuses to mask- “Sorry, that doesn’t fit my lifestyle.”  Ugh.
> 
> Unfortunately, you just can’t make people care about the welfare of the people around them.



You can, we just are unwilling to pay the price.

People do not generally walk around bottomless.  Those few who want to are sanctioned with consequences up to and including violence.

We could choose to enforce masks just as harshly.  We do not.  It is expensive and hard.


----------



## Istbor

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Or, to quote a person I know who refuses to mask- “Sorry, that doesn’t fit my lifestyle.”  Ugh.




What does that even mean!?! What lifestyle? Does wearing a mask really fit anyone's 'lifestyle'?


----------



## CleverNickName

Istbor said:


> What does that even mean!?! What lifestyle? Does wearing a mask really fit anyone's 'lifestyle'?



"Just wear a mask!  It's not like they're asking you to wear a Longhorns jersey."
-Me, to my brother, June 2020


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Istbor said:


> What does that even mean!?! What lifestyle? Does wearing a mask really fit anyone's 'lifestyle'?




Who knows? The whole "caring about people other than yourself" lifestyle?

Personally, given my long history of loving the BDSM bankrobbery and Bane cosplay, I'm fairly stoked.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Who knows? The whole "caring about people other than yourself" lifestyle?




Unfortunately, I think you hit the nail on the head here.

We are talking about people who don't want to be told they should do things for other people's benefit.  They think the Golden Rule is "whoever has the gold, makes the rules".


----------



## Ryujin

CleverNickName said:


> "Just wear a mask!  It's not like they're asking you to wear a Longhorns jersey."
> -Me, to my brother, June 2020



In Alabama all that they'd need to do is brand them for the Crimson Tide. Then even Wal-Mart would carry masks. 

"ROLL TIDE!"


----------



## Ryujin

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Who knows? The whole "caring about people other than yourself" lifestyle?
> 
> Personally, given my long history of loving the BDSM bankrobbery and Bane cosplay, I'm fairly stoked.



Now if only I could figure out how to mount a filter in this little number...


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Now if only I could figure out how to mount a filter in this little number...




Looks like you can just slap a KN-95 in that sucker.  They come in black, and nobody will notice it.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Looks like you can just slap a KN-95 in that sucker.  They come in black, and nobody will notice it.



It's more about making a retention system that would hold the mask in place, without compromising the facial fit of the filter.


----------



## CleverNickName

Ryujin said:


> In Alabama all that they'd need to do is brand them for the Crimson Tide. Then even Wal-Mart would carry masks.
> 
> "ROLL TIDE!"



Whatever works, right?  My friends in Texas would be 1000000% more likely to wear a mask if they were bright red, with a certain four-letter acronym and AK-47s printed all over them.  I couldn't care less, just as long as they are wearing the  things.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Unfortunately, I think you hit the nail on the head here.
> 
> We are talking about people who don't want to be told they should do things for other people's benefit.  They think the Golden Rule is "whoever has the gold, makes the rules".




I've been flat out tempted a couple times when seeing people doing the no-mask thing to look at them and go "Unless you have a very specific set of medical things, you're either stupid or you're selfish.  Which is it?"  Which would probably have gotten me in a fistfight or worse, but damn wasn't I tempted...


----------



## Thomas Shey

I still wonder if the old paint filter mask I used early on before I had anything less dramatic was actually useful.  Its pretty similar to one of these, but older: https://smile.amazon.com/Leeko-Anti-dust-Cartridge-Respirator-Activated/dp/B01M4ILLSI


----------



## NotAYakk

Thomas Shey said:


> I still wonder if the old paint filter mask I used early on before I had anything less dramatic was actually useful.  Its pretty similar to one of these, but older: https://smile.amazon.com/Leeko-Anti-dust-Cartridge-Respirator-Activated/dp/B01M4ILLSI



Probably protected you but not others from you; it probably exhales unfiltered air.

The "dirty" secret is that masks seem many x as effective at stopping people spreading covid as they are at protecting people.

Probably at the high end this changes.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> Which would probably have gotten me in a fistfight or worse, but damn wasn't I tempted...




As have we all.  As have we all...


----------



## Mallus

Umbran said:


> As have we all.  As have we all...



So say we all.


----------



## Zardnaar

Semi infamous restaurant here. 









						Christchurch restaurant Lotus-Heart handed $20,000 fine for traffic light system infringements
					

WorkSafe, which issued three infringement notices to the Christchurch restaurant, said it took a "sustained period of observed non-compliance for us to escalate, which is what happened".




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Staff wore lanyards with "exemptions". Those "exemptions" have no legal bearing. 

 Once the rules got more strict they kept doing it. 



 $20k ($14-15k usd approx) fine handed out.


----------



## NotAYakk

A 1st degree FBF just caught covid.  Not my first one.  And I suspect not my last with Omicron around.


----------



## Hussar

FBF? Sorry, what’s that?

And I’m sorry to hear anyone caught it. Just talked to a friend who had recently lost his aunt to complications with Covid. 

One more time with feeling. This blows.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> FBF? Sorry, what’s that?
> 
> And I’m sorry to hear anyone caught it. Just talked to a friend who had recently lost his aunt to complications with Covid.
> 
> One more time with feeling. This blows.



“Facebook Friend”, I’d guess.


----------



## Zardnaar

Committed a faux pas tonight. Phone was almost flat so put it on the charger and went out. 

 "Vaccine passport please" no problem aw crap. 

 Guess where the phone was. That's alright I had a physical copy. Conveniently located in my phone case. 

 Aw crap X2.

 Lesson learnt my wife had a copy on her phone and they accepted that.



 Oops. Said VP.


----------



## Zardnaar

No vaccine pass no yum yum. 



  Hot pot Guinness beef pie.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Would destroy that plate!

In other news…got my 2nd Shingrix shot yesterday.  Only a little site soreness, not even worth taking a pill over.


----------



## jdrakeh

Thomas Shey said:


> I've been flat out tempted a couple times when seeing people doing the no-mask thing to look at them and go "Unless you have a very specific set of medical things, you're either stupid or you're selfish.  Which is it?"  Which would probably have gotten me in a fistfight or worse, but damn wasn't I tempted...




Earlier this year, I was in the grocery store checkout when a man came up to the front of the store asking for management because "There was an anti-masker situation" and he didn't want to handle it because he was afraid it would devolve into a fistfight. The store, at the time, had a mask policy (you had to wear one to shop at the store) and a couple of jerks apparently took theirs off once they thought no employees were monitoring them. Somebody called them out and things got heated (I could hear the yelling from the front of the store).


----------



## Zardnaar

jdrakeh said:


> Earlier this year, I was in the grocery store checkout when a man came up to the front of the store asking for management because "There was an anti-masker situation" and he didn't want to handle it because he was afraid it would devolve into a fistfight. The store, at the time, had a mask policy (you had to wear one to shop at the store) and a couple of jerks apparently took theirs off once they thought no employees were monitoring them. Somebody called them out and things got heated (I could hear the yelling from the front of the store).




 Downside of mandates. Beats me if they expect low paid retail peons to enforce it. You can call the cops but until they get there.....


----------



## CleverNickName

Zardnaar said:


> Downside of mandates. Beats me if they expect low paid retail peons to enforce it. You can call the cops but until they get there.....



At the grocery store, a guy walked in without a mask and the clerks refused him service until he put a mask on.  He threatened to just take his groceries without paying, since nobody would ring him up, but they assured him he would be spending the night in jail for shoplifting if he did. He threw a cussing fit and thoroughly embarrassed himself in front of everyone, then left.

Some people, I swear.


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> At the grocery store, a guy walked in without a mask and the clerks refused him service until he put a mask on.  He threatened to just take his groceries without paying, since nobody would ring him up, but they assured him he would be spending the night in jail for shoplifting if he did. He threw a cussing fit and thoroughly embarrassed himself in front of everyone, then left.
> 
> Some people, I swear.




 Well that clerk got shot in Germany and the general abuse etc.


----------



## Hussar

On a lighter note - I totally spaced out the other day.  Went to the local convenience store, got out of my car and walked right in.  Took three steps in and realized I wasn't wearing a mask.  I turned right around and got my mask, but, there was this, "Oh naughty word" moment as I kinda wondered why everyone was looking at me.  Usually it's because I'm the over six foot white dude in a town that just doesn't have a lot of foreigners.  

Dunno where my brains were though.  Felt kinda like driving for a couple of blocks and then realizing I hadn't put on my seatbelt.  Really weird.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> On a lighter note - I totally spaced out the other day.  Went to the local convenience store, got out of my car and walked right in.  Took three steps in and realized I wasn't wearing a mask.  I turned right around and got my mask, but, there was this, "Oh naughty word" moment as I kinda wondered why everyone was looking at me.  Usually it's because I'm the over six foot white dude in a town that just doesn't have a lot of foreigners.
> 
> Dunno where my brains were though.  Felt kinda like driving for a couple of blocks and then realizing I hadn't put on my seatbelt.  Really weird.




 Done something similar. I keep masks in car but had a brain fart once and forgot. 

 It happens. It's when you go out of your way to be an asshat.


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> On a lighter note - I totally spaced out the other day.  Went to the local convenience store, got out of my car and walked right in.  Took three steps in and realized I wasn't wearing a mask.  I turned right around and got my mask, but, there was this, "Oh naughty word" moment as I kinda wondered why everyone was looking at me.  Usually it's because I'm the over six foot white dude in a town that just doesn't have a lot of foreigners.
> 
> Dunno where my brains were though.  Felt kinda like driving for a couple of blocks and then realizing I hadn't put on my seatbelt.  Really weird.



Had a similar brain fade not too long ago. Three steps into the store, panicked when I realized it, then forced my way back out the automatic door. I usually have a clean one in my pocket, but this time had left it in the car.


----------



## Umbran

My wife has had three of her house calls cancel this week due to covid exposure.

A friend of ours, is taking his family for a bit of a post-holiday visit to relatives (which is fine).  He has tickets to a Broadway show.  All performances of the show have been cancelled for the past week, but as of yesterday, his was still on.

If he does manage to see the show, we'll have to treat his household as if they were exposed to covid.

We have a sci-fi convention coming up in Boston, as well as a live-action game convention, both still proceeding as if these things were safe. 

So many folks I know are going to get sick.


----------



## Mannahnin




----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> Downside of mandates. Beats me if they expect low paid retail peons to enforce it. You can call the cops but until they get there.....




I suspect that people putting together the rules here had no real conception just how aggressively anti-maskers would respond to this sort of thing.

But yeah, it puts employees and even managers at retail locations in a frequently impossible position.


----------



## Thomas Shey

CleverNickName said:


> At the grocery store, a guy walked in without a mask and the clerks refused him service until he put a mask on.  He threatened to just take his groceries without paying, since nobody would ring him up, but they assured him he would be spending the night in jail for shoplifting if he did. He threw a cussing fit and thoroughly embarrassed himself in front of everyone, then left.
> 
> Some people, I swear.




If that was only the worst of it.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Hussar said:


> On a lighter note - I totally spaced out the other day.  Went to the local convenience store, got out of my car and walked right in.  Took three steps in and realized I wasn't wearing a mask.  I turned right around and got my mask, but, there was this, "Oh naughty word" moment as I kinda wondered why everyone was looking at me.  Usually it's because I'm the over six foot white dude in a town that just doesn't have a lot of foreigners.
> 
> Dunno where my brains were though.  Felt kinda like driving for a couple of blocks and then realizing I hadn't put on my seatbelt.  Really weird.




When I was taking my prior dog on therapeutic walks twice a day, I did that a couple of times, with the same feeling; I was usually so far out on the (short) walk it made no sense to turn around, but I always felt weird, even if I was outside and the street was pretty empty.


----------



## Cadence

More.unmasked folks across three turnpike oases and one hotel lobby in Indiana/Ohio/PA than we ran into in five grocery store and two big box store trips in Illinois.  :-(


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A local hospital organization has developed a new Covid vaccine using older technology & methods with similar efficacy results to the mRNA vaccines.  They make a big deal about how it fares against delta, but there’s no mention of omicron.  However, the point of this vaccine is that it is capable of being manufactured anywhere in the world…and they’re distributing the details on how to do this for free.  This should accelerate the ability of the more impoverished nations to fight Covid like a NOX fuel injection.  That translates into a potential reduction in the number of unvaccinated people around in the world, slowing COVID’s mutation rate.

https://www.texaschildrens.org/texas-children’s-hospital-and-baylor-college-medicine-covid-19-vaccine-technology-secures-emergency


----------



## Imaculata

That is a great new development. A lot of rich countries have neglected their duties to provide vaccines to more impoverished nations, while their citizens happily go on vacation without a care in the world to those same nations.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> A local hospital organization has developed a new Covid vaccine using older technology & methods with similar efficacy results to the mRNA vaccines.  They make a big deal about how it fares against delta, but there’s no mention of omicron.  However, the point of this vaccine is that it is capable of being manufactured anywhere in the world…and they’re distributing the details on how to do this for free.  This should accelerate the ability of the more impoverished nations to fight Covid like a NOX fuel injection.  That translates into a potential reduction in the number of unvaccinated people around in the world, slowing COVID’s mutation rate.
> 
> https://www.texaschildrens.org/texas-children’s-hospital-and-baylor-college-medicine-covid-19-vaccine-technology-secures-emergency



One of the principals of that project is a regular on CNN. I just saw him interviewed about this. Great news.


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> That is a great new development. A lot of rich countries have neglected their duties to provide vaccines to more impoverished nations, while their citizens happily go on vacation without a care in the world to those same nations.




You won't get people to do things by calling it their "duty".  It is really easy to reject moral commitments other people try to lay on you.

I mean, we can't get people to wear masks my appealing to their moral duty to other citizens.  You think you can shame them into giving up _money_ for people in another country?  That's just not going to happen.


----------



## Mannahnin

Umbran said:


> You won't get people to do things by calling it their "duty".  It is really easy to reject moral commitments other people try to lay on you.
> 
> I mean, we can't get people to wear masks my appealing to their moral duty to other citizens.  You think you can shame them into giving up _money_ for people in another country?  That's just not going to happen.



People have also made the self-interest/efficacy argument.  Making sure poorer countries are also well-supplied with vaccines helps bring the pandemic as a whole to an end sooner globally, and reduces the scope of opportunity for mutations that threaten us all.


----------



## Umbran

Mannahnin said:


> People have also made the self-interest/efficacy argument.  Making sure poorer countries are also well-supplied with vaccines helps bring the pandemic as a whole to an end sooner globally, and reduces the scope of opportunity for mutations that threaten us all.




Enlightened self interest is the more powerful argument to those who actually matter in making the decisions, yes.  But they also aren't reading EN World, so...


----------



## Ryujin

Then there are the "pull themselves up by their own bootstraps" crowd who would never do anything to help anyone else, enlightened self-interest or no.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Mannahnin said:


> People have also made the self-interest/efficacy argument.  Making sure poorer countries are also well-supplied with vaccines helps bring the pandemic as a whole to an end sooner globally, and reduces the scope of opportunity for mutations that threaten us all.




The problem is this is too abstract an argument for most people.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

There’s a host of reasons why- the abstraction of the issue, a lack of empathy, a “sticking it to” the other, paranoia and distrust, etc.- certain nations or regions haven’t responded as logically as they should have to the Covid pandemic.

…precious few of which are new.  

I suspect that the epidemiologists who early on predicted the USA had gone from best prepared to most likely to screw up their pandemic response were thinking of several of those factors.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> The problem is this is too abstract an argument for most people.




Most people are, thankfully, irrelevant to the issue.  They do not influence the decisions in a meaningful way.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

It’s possible a booster of the J&J vaccine may provide more protection from Omicron than from previous strains:









						UPDATE 2-J&J booster slashes Omicron hospitalisations -S.African study
					

A booster dose of Johnson & Johnson Inc's single-dose COVID-19 vaccine was 84% effective at preventing hospitalisation in South African healthcare workers who became infected as the Omicron variant spread, researchers said on Thursday.  The real-world study, which has not been peer-reviewed, was...




					finance.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s possible a booster of the J&J vaccine may provide more protection from Omicron than from previous strains:




I know some folks who took J&J, because that was what was available, and have been anxious over lack of guidance, who will be happy to hear that.

There's an unfortuante reality that the situation develops on the time scale of weeks, but our information/understanding usually develops on the timescale of months.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Some North Texas restaurants having to temporarily close because of COVID-19 cases
					

There was already a service industry labor shortage before the omicron variant, but now things are going from bad to worse for a number of North Texas restaurants.




					www.yahoo.com
				




The omicron-driven spike around here is getting pretty impressive.  The group my Dad works for closed his location a day early so that they could use his staff elsewhere in the system.  It seems as if there’s been a few more than expected out with Covid (or other illnesses).

…which could also factor into us not going to church in person this weekend.


----------



## Hussar

Well I’m sitting here ina Starbucks in a major mall. I’ve been here a couple of hours (waiting for the wife to finish shopping) and I’ve yet to see a single person without a mask indoors or out. Kids, adults, doesn’t matter. 

Wish everyone could get with the program. I want to see my parents again someday.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> When I was taking my prior dog on therapeutic walks twice a day, I did that a couple of times, with the same feeling; I was usually so far out on the (short) walk it made no sense to turn around, but I always felt weird, even if I was outside and the street was pretty empty.





Hussar said:


> Well I’m sitting here ina Starbucks in a major mall. I’ve been here a couple of hours (waiting for the wife to finish shopping) and I’ve yet to see a single person without a mask indoors or out. Kids, adults, doesn’t matter.
> 
> Wish everyone could get with the program. I want to see my parents again someday.




 Went to our version of Walmart and everyone was masked. 

 One guy had his nose exposed  but everyone else was good. 

 Beats me how you can sit in mall for two hours. I would either not go or say something. Long shopping trips not a shared experience here except maybe on holiday.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Went to our version of Walmart and everyone was masked.
> 
> One guy had his nose exposed  but everyone else was good.
> 
> Beats me how you can sit in mall for two hours. I would either not go or say something. Long shopping trips not a shared experience here except maybe on holiday.



For some reason in my town grocery shopping tends to be a family affair. It's likely a cultural thing and quite frequently the whole family, including grandma, will be blocking the aisles. Clearly not as much during the lockdown, but you still see it occasionally.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> For some reason in my town grocery shopping tends to be a family affair. It's likely a cultural thing and quite frequently the whole family, including grandma, will be blocking the aisles. Clearly not as much during the lockdown, but you still see it occasionally.




 I rarely go grocery shopping but we go very early in the mornings to avoid the crowd. I just get to carry it. 

 I don't like supermarkets and wife prefers I don't go anyway.


----------



## Zardnaar

Doesn't want to obey the rules licence revoked. 









						Perching Parrot cafe has outdoor dining licence suspended after opting out of My Vaccine Pass
					

The Perching Parrot's owner says it will not survive operating as takeaway only with no outdoor dining.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Staff didn't want to obey rules. No job. 









						Covid-19: Fleur's Place to close indefinitely after half of staff refuse vaccine
					

Restaurant owner, Fleur Sullivan says it is "quite an unexpected position to be in".




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Got vaccine passed today. No pass no yum yum.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Doesn't want to obey the rules licence revoked.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Perching Parrot cafe has outdoor dining licence suspended after opting out of My Vaccine Pass
> 
> 
> The Perching Parrot's owner says it will not survive operating as takeaway only with no outdoor dining.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Staff didn't want to obey rules. No job.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19: Fleur's Place to close indefinitely after half of staff refuse vaccine
> 
> 
> Restaurant owner, Fleur Sullivan says it is "quite an unexpected position to be in".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Got vaccine passed today. No pass no yum yum.
> 
> View attachment 149159



I understand people might think they’ve come up with a reasonable and effective alternative to local health & safety rules, but part of having strict liability on those rules is the sheer impossibility of assessing everyone’s variations.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I understand people might think they’ve come up with a reasonable and effective alternative to local health & safety rules, but part of having strict liability on those rules is the sheer impossibility of assessing everyone’s variations.




And, to be perfectly frank, the overwhelming majority of those alternatives will not be effective, because people who own restaurants and groceries and department stores are not typically epidemiologists.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I understand people might think they’ve come up with a reasonable and effective alternative to local health & safety rules, but part of having strict liability on those rules is the sheer impossibility of assessing everyone’s variations.




 Well there's been a few "exemptions" from quacks, frauds and some doctors. 

 But the only ones allowed are for a very narrow range and from permitted specialists. And via the Ministry of Health not a hospitality owner.

 Beats me with vax rates in the 90-95% range a few places in the news are essentially advertising themselves as places to avoid.

 The two reasonably nearby are near my hometown ones from that village I've mentioned in the cooking thread the other was that castle we visited a month or two ago. 

 They're doing take out only as not enough staff would get vaccinated and with borders closed they can't seem to find replacements.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Looks like studies in the UK are supporting South African data suggesting Omicron isn’t as deadly as delta.









						Omicron hospitalisation risk around one third of Delta, UK analysis shows
					

LONDON (Reuters) -The risk of hospitalisation with the Omicron variant of coronavirus is about one-third that of the Delta variant, according to British analysis of more than a million cases of both types in recent weeks.  Britain is experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases driven by the...




					www.yahoo.com
				




Edit: and this may be why:








						Omicron might be milder because it has a less effective way of attacking lung cells, studies say
					

The variant favors a way of taking over cells that works well in some parts of the body but not in the lungs, the authors of a new study told Insider.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Alternative types. 

99% local vax rate. 3/4 yoga studios close down. 









						New Zealand yoga industry suffers as anti-vax sentiment co-opts wellness community
					

Spread of disinformation via popular social media wellness accounts playing significant role in rejection of Covid vaccines




					www.theguardian.com
				




 Another volunteer to donate 20k to her majesty's representatives. 









						Golden Bay cafe owner 'opts out' of traffic light system by claiming to operate under common law
					

The Collingwood cafe only hires unvaccinated staff and only welcomes unvaccinated and unswabbed customers.




					www.newshub.co.nz
				




 Already been visited by the authorities. Watch this space. Golden Bay being known as sort of hippie type place. Not exactly secret from October. 









						Golden Bay cafe hiring only unvaccinated workers, makes vaccinated customers sit outside
					

A pocket of people entrenched against vaccination could endanger the small community, an expert says.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Imaculata

I see the owner of the Golden Bay cafe is applying to be a future HCA winner.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> I see the owner of the Golden Bay cafe is applying to be a future HCA winner.




 Yup. He kinda infamous in a small way on Reddit.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Yup. He kinda infamous in a small way on Reddit.



Sort of Golden Bay's answer to Pete Evans?


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> Sort of Golden Bay's answer to Pete Evans?




 IDK who Pete Evans is.

 Golden Bay and Coromandel tend to attract the alternative types. Good weed up there.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> IDK who Pete Evans is.
> 
> Golden Bay and Coromandel tend to attract the alternative types. Good weed up there.



Pete Evans is a famous Australian TV chef, who thinks that makes him an endocrinologist.


----------



## Maxperson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> One of the local Q-Anon groups is ingesting cocktails including chlorine dioxide as an ingredient, possibly as an alternative Covid treatment.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dallas QAnon Cultists Are Drinking Toxic Chemicals from A Communal Bowl, Family Says
> 
> 
> The family of a Dallas' QAnon cult member is sounding the alarm. Multiple members of the Leek family confirmed that their relative, who left her husband and children behind in Delaware to follow a fringe QAnon cult leader to Dallas last month, has been drinking a chemical cocktail containing...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dallasobserver.com



It's times like this when I really wish a facepalm emoji was available.  I mean, wow fits, but facepalm would fit better.


----------



## Maxperson

NotAYakk said:


> A 1st degree FBF just caught covid.  Not my first one.  And I suspect not my last with Omicron around.



A woman I used to play D&D with just came back from a vacation with Omicron.  Thankfully, she has light symptoms(fully vaxxed).  One of my current D&D group and fully vaxxed as well who is an EMT(almost paramdedic) also got Covid last week.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> Pete Evans is a famous Australian TV chef, who thinks that makes him an endocrinologist.



 Ah I don't watch TV cooking shows. 

 Think they're popular here but haven't had TV reception for over a decade.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Ah I don't watch TV cooking shows.
> 
> Think they're popular here but haven't had TV reception for over a decade.



At this point he's arguably more famous for his support of woo.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> At this point he's arguably more famous for his support of woo.




 Woo?


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Woo?



Anti-vaxx, essential oils, and the like.

_Edit_ - Sorry, I've picked up some bad habits from a friend in Brisbane, who moved back there from Canada a few years back.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> Anti-vaxx, essential oils, and the like.
> 
> _Edit_ - Sorry, I've picked up some bad habits from a friend in Brisbane, who moved back there from Canada a few years back.




 All good. 

 I think MKR is on here but I avoid those types of shows like the plague.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

NotAYakk said:


> A 1st degree FBF just caught covid.  Not my first one.  And I suspect not my last with Omicron around.




I am so glad this was explained.

I thought that was yet another new term for friends with benefits, and I was wondering what the difference was between a first degree and second friends with benefits was.

….probably involves egg nog.


----------



## Zardnaar

Snarf Zagyg said:


> I am so glad this was explained.
> 
> I thought that was yet another new term for friends with benefits, and I was wondering what the difference was between a first degree and second friends with benefits was.
> 
> ….probably involves egg nog.




 I'm guessing it's probably you know then irl vs someone I knew once upon a time vs internet random.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> I'm guessing it's probably you know then irl vs someone I knew once upon a time vs internet random.



Hence, egg nog.

But no, I was using it in the Bacon sense.


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> I'm guessing it's probably you know then irl vs someone I knew once upon a time vs internet random.



Or maybe just someone you knew once upon a time vs. internet random.  I've never described someone I know in real life who is also on Facebook as a Facebook friend.  They're described as a friend who said X on Facebook.


----------



## MoonSong

A week and some days ago, I made a post about things not going well for Christmas thanks to an unexpected Covid diagnosis. First of all, I want to thank everybody who expressed support and good wishes. Things went mostly well in the end. My cousin has overcome most of the symptoms and is recovering without complications. I came negative on time to spend some time with my family. Thank you. 

As for my Dad, we'll have a proper diagnosis and plan in a few days. Trying to stay positive.


----------



## Zardnaar

Aussie vax ad. Bit hard hitting you have been warned.


----------



## Rabulias

Here's a tweet about a doctor giving a good analogy:


----------



## Zardnaar

Rabulias said:


> Here's a tweet about a doctor giving a good analogy:




 Seen that one. 

 "Trust a scientist or Facebook idiot who you went to school with and glued their fingers togather in chemistry".


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> Aussie vax ad. Bit hard hitting you have been warned.



That looks like moderate covid?

Oxygen but no vent.  Maybe bipap?  I don't know.

I guess it might be showing oxygen failing, and someone who has to be sedated and put on a vent shortly.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> That looks like moderate covid?
> 
> Oxygen but no vent.  Maybe bipap?  I don't know.
> 
> I guess it might be showing oxygen failing, and someone who has to be sedated and put on a vent shortly.



 Mostly for shock value. They do that here and in Aussie. 

 Drink driving, smoking and safety type ads could be brutal.


----------



## Imaculata

Honestly, I would say that ad is mild in its portrayal of covid in comparison to reality.


----------



## NotAYakk

Imaculata said:


> Honestly, I would say that ad is mild in its portrayal of covid in comparison to reality.



Ya.  The warning before implied severe covid.  Which I believe means sedated in a coma, pronated, with your lungs being inflated by a ventilator.  Or worse, ECMO machine.

Moderate covid means you need oxygen to survive.

Mild is anything short of hospitalization with oxygen, which is a huge range.

I guess showing a moderate on the edge of severe generates more empathy.


----------



## Umbran

We chose the better part of valor, and have rescheduled a vacation into March.  We will still take some time soon to get away from home, but to visit friends who are vaccinated and not going out much, rather than into hotels and restaurants every day.


----------



## Umbran

My wife is a house call veterinarian.  Today, she had someone expecting her to come into their home when _everyone in it_ had tested positive for covid two days ago.  One of them was asymptomatic, and the others had "only mild symptoms, really."


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> My wife is a house call veterinarian.  Today, she had someone expecting her to come into their home when _everyone in it_ had tested positive for covid two days ago.  One of them was asymptomatic, and the others had "only mild symptoms, really."



Cherry on top: pet in question is bat/cat/dog/deer with COVID.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> My wife is a house call veterinarian.  Today, she had someone expecting her to come into their home when _everyone in it_ had tested positive for covid two days ago.  One of them was asymptomatic, and the others had "only mild symptoms, really."



"Well just because _we_ have to quarantine that doesn't mean that _you_ have to!"

... or somesuch nonsense.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> My wife is a house call veterinarian.  Today, she had someone expecting her to come into their home when _everyone in it_ had tested positive for covid two days ago.  One of them was asymptomatic, and the others had "only mild symptoms, really."




 F that, hard pass, do not pass go etc.


----------



## NotAYakk

Hey guys, you said flatten the curve.  Did you mean on the X or Y axis?


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Yeah, those charts look _great_ /s. It's a darn good thing that omicron is not quite as deadly and that so many people are vaccinated, or we'd be a "bring out your dead" Monty Python sketch (without the funny part).


----------



## Zardnaar

Got pinged multiple times with Covid vaccine pass today. Spent 5 hours wandering around doing stuff/watching Ghost Busters. 
 No vaccine pass no yum tums pt 2. 



 And no Chinese Gardens. 



 Took masks with us used them where appropriate (cafes, movie theatre).


----------



## Thomas Shey

Well, I can't seem to get a COVID test anywhere locally short of a week from now, so at this point I think I'm just going to minimize my contact with people outside the house (if my wife gets it, that's probably unavoidable at this point given how long I've had could-be-could-not symptoms) and see if anything further develops.  Could just be a cold or some kind of allergies.


----------



## NotAYakk

FitzTheRuke said:


> Yeah, those charts look _great_ /s. It's a darn good thing that omicron is not quite as deadly and that so many people are vaccinated, or we'd be a "bring out your dead" Monty Python sketch (without the funny part).



It may be that Omicron is about as infectious as Delta, but infects most people with prior exposure (infection or vaccines) almost as if they had no resitance.  (the exception being 3x exposed and 2x and recent mRNA/AZ/mRNA).

Oh, and has a 3 day lifecycle.

6x every 3 days is 2x every 1.6 days, or 32 days from 1 to a million infections.

SA data has problems, because they already lost 0.5% of the population to covid 19 (excess death data) and are a young population; so nearly 100% of population was previously exposed.  Delta was dying from herd immunity; omicron reinfected almost everyone.

In an area with near total vaccination and previous infection things may be similar to SA (at least in the youth).  But immuno compromised may be in trouble.  And I guess the correlation of anti vax and anti mask means that people who are in that corner are probably already previously infected.

Also, we have zero long covid data from Omicron.

The graph is limited by testing capabilities.  UK being high is evidence of ability to test more than anything compared to others.

Ontario had its capacity plummit, because it was doing batch testing (test 10 samples at once, if all are negative the batch is negative; if they are positive, retest individual samples).  Test positivity has spiked to 50% in some areas, rendering batch testing inefficient, causing capacity to plummet.

A problem remains that severe cases can lag diagnosis by weeks.  And we have this vertical line of cases.  If the best case scenario doesn't develop, by the time we know that it is 2 weeks too lste to fix it.

So here is hoping.  We have battered down the hatches and are hoping to weather the wave.  Based on SA and exponential geometry, this spike may be over in a month, and by then we'll learn how bad it is.

Still have my O2 concentrators in a box downstairs.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> It may be that Omicron is about as infectious as Delta, but infects most people with prior exposure (infection or vaccines) almost as if they had no resitance.  (the exception being 3x exposed and 2x and recent mRNA/AZ/mRNA).
> 
> Oh, and has a 3 day lifecycle.
> 
> 6x every 3 days is 2x every 1.6 days, or 32 days from 1 to a million infections.
> 
> SA data has problems, because they already lost 0.5% of the population to covid 19 (excess death data) and are a young population; so nearly 100% of population was previously exposed.  Delta was dying from herd immunity; omicron reinfected almost everyone.
> 
> In an area with near total vaccination and previous infection things may be similar to SA (at least in the youth).  But immuno compromised may be in trouble.  And I guess the correlation of anti vax and anti mask means that people who are in that corner are probably already previously infected.
> 
> Also, we have zero long covid data from Omicron.
> 
> The graph is limited by testing capabilities.  UK being high is evidence of ability to test more than anything compared to others.
> 
> Ontario had its capacity plummit, because it was doing batch testing (test 10 samples at once, if all are negative the batch is negative; if they are positive, retest individual samples).  Test positivity has spiked to 50% in some areas, rendering batch testing inefficient, causing capacity to plummet.
> 
> A problem remains that severe cases can lag diagnosis by weeks.  And we have this vertical line of cases.  If the best case scenario doesn't develop, by the time we know that it is 2 weeks too lste to fix it.
> 
> So here is hoping.  We have battered down the hatches and are hoping to weather the wave.  Based on SA and exponential geometry, this spike may be over in a month, and by then we'll learn how bad it is.
> 
> Still have my O2 concentrators in a box downstairs.




 We were doing batch testing as well. Numbers are down but due to time of year that's more testing rates I think. 

 Omicron hasn't breached MIQ yet still dealing with delta.


----------



## NotAYakk

Thomas Shey said:


> Well, I can't seem to get a COVID test anywhere locally short of a week from now, so at this point I think I'm just going to minimize my contact with people outside the house (if my wife gets it, that's probably unavoidable at this point given how long I've had could-be-could-not symptoms) and see if anything further develops.  Could just be a cold or some kind of allergies.



I'd do the masking/seperate bedrooms/air out bathrooms thing.  There are multiple cases where that worked.


----------



## Thomas Shey

NotAYakk said:


> I'd do the masking/seperate bedrooms/air out bathrooms thing.  There are multiple cases where that worked.



We have a relatively small house, and only one bathroom.  The only way we could do it for me to completely isolate in the main bedroom except when I'm using the bathroom (and trying to clean that after every use is the definition of impractical given I'm an old man who used it a dozen times a day).  If I do, in fact, have COVID, I've likely had it for at least a week at this point, so avoiding exposure has fled the building.

Were I more sure I'd probably try anyway, but at this point it involves doing backflips for what could just be a cold or allergies (and the local swings in weather are easily enough to encourage those).  I don't entirely like it, but I have to pretty much just take a calculated risk here, since we're both vaccinated and boosted, and I can't find out for sure in any sane time frame.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> We have a relatively small house, and only one bathroom.  The only way we could do it for me to completely isolate in the main bedroom except when I'm using the bathroom (and trying to clean that after every use is the definition of impractical given I'm an old man who used it a dozen times a day).  If I do, in fact, have COVID, I've likely had it for at least a week at this point, so avoiding exposure has fled the building.
> 
> Were I more sure I'd probably try anyway, but at this point it involves doing backflips for what could just be a cold or allergies (and the local swings in weather are easily enough to encourage those).  I don't entirely like it, but I have to pretty much just take a calculated risk here, since we're both vaccinated and boosted, and I can't find out for sure in any sane time frame.




 Similar boat. I prepped one if the spare rooms as an isolation room. That was March 2020 though. 

 Friends in Houston wife got Covid husband and daughter dodged it with no special effort made.


----------



## NotAYakk

Oh, I didn't mean clean.  Just air out; aerosol, not fomites.

I am unaware of a single documented touch-to-covid infection case, let alone an outbreak.  I am aware of many airborn transmission cases, including one where a shared hallway let omicron pass from one person to another in a quarrentine hotel (only opened for meal delivery).

Checking science .. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) -- estimated 0.01% chance of catching it after touching a surface a Covid positive person coughed on.  Hand hygiene may help, disinfecting surfaces basically useless.  No definitive cases of actual fomite transmission have been found, some possible/likely.

So ya.  Wash hands, wear masks (especially sick person), get HEPA filter for isolation room, air out shared rooms (lime bathrooms).

I spent a few days in a hospital during the pandemic; I slept in a mask, it wasn't too bad (wasn't great either).  Only took it off to eat/drink.

But not doing this is also reasonable.  I am just describing our plans really.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NotAYakk said:


> Omicron is about as infectious as Delta,



From The Lancet, Delta’s R0 was 7, Omicron’s was pegged at 10.  The world’s most infectious disease- measles- has a R0 listed somewhere between 12-15.


----------



## NotAYakk

Dannyalcatraz said:


> From The Lancet, Delta’s R0 was 7, Omicron’s was pegged at 10.  The world’s most infectious disease- measles- has a R0 listed somewhere between 12-15.



From what I read, its faster spread is some combinstion of evading immunity and being more infectious and shorter incubation period.

But I haven't seen a strong claim of that r0.  I ttied googling; failed.  Do you have a reference?


----------



## briggart

A bit of anecdotal evidence of the rapid spread here in Italy. I turned out positive (luckily with no heavy symptoms, a bit of sore throat the first two-three days and then mostly dripping nose) to a PCR test at the local hospital on Dec 21st. I had an appointment, and ended up waiting in line for 45 minutes. Quarantine here is 21 days, but you can end it sooner if you have a negative test after at least 10 days with the last 3 symptoms free. Yesterday I took my second test, at the same hospital, and had to wait in line for more than 3 hours. Part of that is due to the holidays in between, but the nurse said they had a steady increase of demand for the last 2-3 weeks.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NotAYakk said:


> From what I read, its faster spread is some combinstion of evading immunity and being more infectious and shorter incubation period.
> 
> But I haven't seen a strong claim of that r0.  I ttied googling; failed.  Do you have a reference?



I posted this link on Christmas Day:


Dannyalcatraz said:


> This isn’t it, but this is from The Lancet.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Omicron variant and booster COVID-19 vaccines
> 
> 
> On Dec 13, 2021, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) confirmed that a patient in England had died after contracting the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. The previous day, prime minister Boris Johnson launched a drive to offer all adults in the UK a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by the end...
> 
> 
> 
> www.thelancet.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That puts it right on the heels of the measles.
> 
> Some more researchers are chiming in that it may be less dangerous than previous strains, but with its mutations, it looks like omicron is not affected by most of the monoclonal antibody products except GlaxoSmithKline’s.



The “money quote is:


> The original strain of SARS-CoV-2 has an R0 of 2·5, while the delta variant (B.1.617.2) has an R0 of just under 7. Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious diseases at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (London, UK), reckons omicron's R0 could be as high as 10.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

NotAYakk said:


> So here is hoping.  We have battered down the hatches and are hoping to weather the wave.  Based on SA and exponential geometry, this spike may be over in a month, and by then we'll learn how bad it is.
> 
> Still have my O2 concentrators in a box downstairs.




Here's hoping for sure, agreed.

(If you don't mind me being pedantic for a moment - it's "batten" the hatches. If you batter them down (like a door) you'd be busting them open. Battening them is putting in strips of wood that "locks" the hatches up tight so they stay shut and somewhat waterproof.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Various stories here hit harder than news reports. For the most part Covid here is in far away lands or the North Island. 

 No D&D and precautions are the day to day impact. Intellectually you know about it but it hasn't really hit home on a practical/personal level.

 Downsides is it feeds into the anti vaxxer "it doesn't exist" type BS.


----------



## NotAYakk

FitzTheRuke said:


> Here's hoping for sure, agreed.
> 
> (If you don't mind me being pedantic for a moment - it's "batten" the hatches. If you batter them down (like a door) you'd be busting them open. Battening them is putting in strips of wood that "locks" the hatches up tight so they stay shut and somewhat waterproof.)



Obviously I meant "batter" as in egg flour and sugar.

Gotta deep fry them all.

/s


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> It may be that Omicron is about as infectious as Delta, but infects most people with prior exposure (infection or vaccines) almost as if they had no resitance.  (the exception being 3x exposed and 2x and recent mRNA/AZ/mRNA).
> 
> Oh, and has a 3 day lifecycle.




So, this is why epidemiologists has specific measures and not descriptive words like "as infectious as".

R0 is measured as the average number of other people a sick person will infect, _if the population is unprotected_. R0 is a measure _before_ contingencies are applied, not after. So when they say Delta has an R0 of 5, and Omicron has an R0 of 10, that has a clear meaning. We layer on effectiveness of vaccines after that - the vaccines are pretty solid against Delta, and not as good against Omicron.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Ugh.
Double vaxxed and boosted. Took all reasonable precautions. Had to take a required trip for work after Xmas.

… and just tested positive for the ‘rona. 2022, everybody!

(so far, it’s like a bad cold- one day of symptoms.)


----------



## Janx

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Ugh.
> Double vaxxed and boosted. Took all reasonable precautions. Had to take a required trip for work after Xmas.
> 
> … and just tested positive for the ‘rona. 2022, everybody!
> 
> (so far, it’s like a bad cold- one day of symptoms.)



hope it stays mild.

Rest up. Get better.


----------



## Thomas Shey

NotAYakk said:


> But not doing this is also reasonable.  I am just describing our plans really.




No, that's all quite fair; if I knew for sure I had it I'd be doing as much of that as was possible.  The single bathroom that requires moving through a common hall to get to it complicates it no end, but you can only do what you can do.


----------



## billd91

Thomas Shey said:


> No, that's all quite fair; if I knew for sure I had it I'd be doing as much of that as was possible.  The single bathroom that requires moving through a common hall to get to it complicates it no end, but you can only do what you can do.



It does - but it's also not impossible. When my wife tested positive for COVID a year ago, she quarantined to our bedroom (I took the living room couch) and used the communal upstairs hall and bathroom (with her wiping it down with bleachy wipes after use). Neither I nor our kids ever caught it. 
That was, of course, before omicron and it's freaky high R factor.


----------



## Thomas Shey

billd91 said:


> It does - but it's also not impossible. When my wife tested positive for COVID a year ago, she quarantined to our bedroom (I took the living room couch) and used the communal upstairs hall and bathroom (with her wiping it down with bleachy wipes after use). Neither I nor our kids ever caught it.
> That was, of course, before omicron and it's freaky high R factor.




Well, as noted, contact transfer doesn't seem to be much of a thing with C19.  The issue with having to use the bathroom would be I'd be regularly leaving the bedroom and exposing the hallway to exhalations.  I probably could pull a mask on before I did so each time, but it still seems likely its impairing some of the benefit of isolating.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> So, this is why epidemiologists has specific measures and not descriptive words like "as infectious as".
> 
> R0 is measured as the average number of other people a sick person will infect, _if the population is unprotected_. R0 is a measure _before_ contingencies are applied, not after. So when they say Delta has an R0 of 5, and Omicron has an R0 of 10, that has a clear meaning. We layer on effectiveness of vaccines after that - the vaccines are pretty solid against Delta, and not as good against Omicron.



Yes, but we have a _guess_ at the R0 of Omicron from before Christmas.

I have read epidemiologists saying it could be a R0 very similar to Delta, just a much better ability to evade existing vaccines and prior infections.

Distinguishing that from a higher R0 is difficult, as there are few areas of the planet that are not full of vaccinated and prior infected people at this point.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Distinguishing that from a higher R0 is difficult, as there are few areas of the planet that are not full of vaccinated and prior infected people at this point.




Sure it is.  But there are some very smart, skilled people out there with data. 

If I have to point an issue at your argument, it is this - Delta spread over the world over the course of half a year, through a population that still had plenty of unvaccinated people.  The US, for example, had 40% to 50% vaccination rate during the period of Delta's rise to dominance, not high enough to really slow it down all that much.

If Omicron evades vaccines, that just means it, too, is spreading through a largely vulnerable population.  But it came to dominance over the course of about one month.  Which suggests that it really is worse than Delta, vaccine or not.

This is supported by research showing that Omicron spreads so rapidly by reproducing _ungodly fast_ in the bronchi (this is measurable - it reproduces about 70 times faster than Delta in these tissues).  Meaning, it is doing to Delta what Delta did to Alpha - simply massively out-reproducing in the places it counts for spreading the virus.

The fact that we _know_ it out-reproduces Delta stands against your argument that it is somehow no more infectious.  The higher reproduction rate _is part of how infectious it is_.  It means higher doses of virus per cough and sneeze and breath, meaning we should expect more infection, unless given a very specific reason to expect otherwise.

I know of no such specific reason to think otherwise.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Latest report-

Brain fog, light flu-like symptoms for me. I was lucky(ish), in that I was symptomatic and I had stocked up on HomeKits prior to omicron. Friends who were exposed went to go get tested- they just texted, and lines are hours long, there are police escorts for doctors, and people are just vomiting in line like something from a Hieronymous Bosch painting.


----------



## Hussar

NotAYakk said:


> /snip
> 
> But not doing this is also reasonable.  I am just describing our plans really.



Actually, no, I'm going to disagree.  Not doing this is not reasonable.  Not masking in public is not reasonable.  There is absolutely no reason to not mask 100% of the time the second you walk out the door.  That graph up there showing that vertical line?  Look where Japan is.  THAT'S what happens when everyone is reasonable and masks up.  

FFS, if people would just do it for a while we'd be done with this naughty word by now.  

Sorry, @NotAYakk, that rant is not directed at you.  It's directed at anyone who thinks that it's okay to walk out their door without a mask.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Actually, no, I'm going to disagree.  Not doing this is not reasonable.  Not masking in public is not reasonable.




I am not sure he was talking about masking.  He seemed to be talking about deeper cleaning of surfaces while in isolation.


----------



## NotAYakk

Hussar said:


> Actually, no, I'm going to disagree.  Not doing this is not reasonable.  Not masking in public is not reasonable.  There is absolutely no reason to not mask 100% of the time the second you walk out the door.  That graph up there showing that vertical line?  Look where Japan is.  THAT'S what happens when everyone is reasonable and masks up.
> 
> FFS, if people would just do it for a while we'd be done with this naughty word by now.
> 
> Sorry, @NotAYakk, that rant is not directed at you.  It's directed at anyone who thinks that it's okay to walk out their door without a mask.



Oh, I was talking about in-house plans if one person is infected.

Infected person stays in room with HEPA filter.  Wears N95 mask except when drinking.  If needs to use shared space (like bathroom), airs room out (opens window etc) after (and possibly during) use.

Ideally seperste HEPA system in shared space.

But it is reasonable to me for someone to decide they have likely cross infected before diagnosis in an intimate household relationship, and not try the above.

---

Outside of the home, k/n95 masks always (or similar).  Or at least level 3, as n95s are in short supply.  I get why people din't have these, because messaging has been mixed, but now it really is clear you want them.

Even if it just slows Omicron and lowers the incoming spike.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Actually, no, I'm going to disagree.  Not doing this is not reasonable.  Not masking in public is not reasonable.  There is absolutely no reason to not mask 100% of the time the second you walk out the door.  That graph up there showing that vertical line?  Look where Japan is.  THAT'S what happens when everyone is reasonable and masks up.
> 
> FFS, if people would just do it for a while we'd be done with this naughty word by now.
> 
> Sorry, @NotAYakk, that rant is not directed at you.  It's directed at anyone who thinks that it's okay to walk out their door without a mask.




 We don't wear then walking out the door either. Government's advice is not needed when exercising. 

 Context social distancing out in the wilderness or empty street. Not in a gym or whatever. 

 We wear them around people though. Spent a good chunk of the last week out on walking and hiking trails.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> We don't wear then walking out the door either. Government's advice is not needed when exercising.
> 
> Context social distancing out in the wilderness or empty street. Not in a gym or whatever.
> 
> We wear them around people though. Spent a good chunk of the last week out on walking and hiking trails.



Ya, you don't have Omicron in NZ yet.  (I think you are a NZer?)

I was working out how big NZ was the other day; your country is roughly half the size of Atlantic Canada with roughly twice the population.

Atlantic Canada manged to weather pre-delta Covid without serious outbreaks.  Delta started breaking down its defences, and Omicron is just overrunning it (vertical lines).  But it doesn't have "only people arriving are on planes"; it has a large land  border.  And it did manage to avoid a bunch of infection before it spread vaccines.

...

Has anyone else read the preprint of some doctors looking into autopsies of people dead with covid (both by and incidentally dead), and finding strong evidence that even asymptomatic covid gets into your brain and reproduces there?

Fun times.  Fun times.


----------



## Ryujin

NotAYakk said:


> Ya, you don't have Omicron in NZ yet.  (I think you are a NZer?)
> 
> I was working out how big NZ was the other day; your country is roughly half the size of Atlantic Canada with roughly twice the population.
> 
> Atlantic Canada manged to weather pre-delta Covid without serious outbreaks.  Delta started breaking down its defences, and Omicron is just overrunning it (vertical lines).  But it doesn't have "only people arriving are on planes"; it has a large land  border.  And it did manage to avoid a bunch of infection before it spread vaccines.
> 
> ...
> 
> Has anyone else read the preprint of some doctors looking into autopsies of people dead with covid (both by and incidentally dead), and finding strong evidence that even asymptomatic covid gets into your brain and reproduces there?
> 
> Fun times.  Fun times.



New Brunswick was virtually Covid free, due to a complete lockdown, until a medical doctor, of all people, broke the quarantines and went to Quebec. After that he didn't self quarantine and spread it to his patients. The first surge would have been barely a blip in that Province, until then.

_EDIT_ - Link to story New Brunswick outbreak: How a smalltown doctor became a Covid pariah


----------



## Thomas Shey

I also will note it can be tricky finding proper masks.  N95's don't don't seem available anywhere accessible to me, and the reviews on most of the KN95's I've looked at seem--dubious (as in its questionable whether they fit the KN95 standard in reality).  Currently I'm wearing multilayer masks with filters but I'm not going to claim its ideal.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Well, curses. I hust came down with a fever in the night. My comic and game store only has four employees and myself - two of them are my teenaged children who live with me. Another stayed home yesterday with "flu". That leaves one employee to open the store (as long as she stays well). Otherwise, we are screwed.

And many thousands of dollars worth of stuff that customers need to come pick up. I guess it will wait if it has to, but yikes.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> Ya, you don't have Omicron in NZ yet.  (I think you are a NZer?)
> 
> I was working out how big NZ was the other day; your country is roughly half the size of Atlantic Canada with roughly twice the population.
> 
> Atlantic Canada manged to weather pre-delta Covid without serious outbreaks.  Delta started breaking down its defences, and Omicron is just overrunning it (vertical lines).  But it doesn't have "only people arriving are on planes"; it has a large land  border.  And it did manage to avoid a bunch of infection before it spread vaccines.
> 
> ...
> 
> Has anyone else read the preprint of some doctors looking into autopsies of people dead with covid (both by and incidentally dead), and finding strong evidence that even asymptomatic covid gets into your brain and reproduces there?
> 
> Fun times.  Fun times.




 No omnicron yet, no Covid in my area.


----------



## GreyLord

Thomas Shey said:


> I also will note it can be tricky finding proper masks.  N95's don't don't seem available anywhere accessible to me, and the reviews on most of the KN95's I've looked at seem--dubious (as in its questionable whether they fit the KN95 standard in reality).  Currently I'm wearing multilayer masks with filters but I'm not going to claim its ideal.




Yes, I've been lucky with that thus far.  When they first started selling them I bought tons of masks.  I can't find them anywhere around here anymore, so what I have is it.  I'm lucky that I still have a decent supply, but once it is gone I'll have to go online and see if I can somehow determine which are the official ones and which ones are not.  It seems hard to figure it out from what I've seen.


----------



## Rabulias

Here is a NYT article listing approved N95/KN95 masks and sellers:









						Where to Buy N95s, KN95s, and Surgical-Style Masks in 2022
					

We’ve tested 37 of the best N95 masks, KN95 masks, and surgical masks and confirmed their filtration claims with expert government agencies or our own lab testing. Here’s what we recommend.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Umbran

Rabulias said:


> Here is a NYT article listing approved N95/KN95 masks and sellers:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Where to Buy N95s, KN95s, and Surgical-Style Masks in 2022
> 
> 
> We’ve tested 37 of the best N95 masks, KN95 masks, and surgical masks and confirmed their filtration claims with expert government agencies or our own lab testing. Here’s what we recommend.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com




Note:  Bona Fide Masks may be a bit swamped at the moment.  I placed an order just before X-mas.  I wasn't expecting much due to the holiday, but I pinged them this morning to get a status update, and got an error back that my e-mail couldn't be delivered because the inbox was full.

Previously, they gave me prompt service, so I take this more to be a sign of the times, not of their overall service.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Rabulias said:


> Here is a NYT article listing approved N95/KN95 masks and sellers:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Where to Buy N95s, KN95s, and Surgical-Style Masks in 2022
> 
> 
> We’ve tested 37 of the best N95 masks, KN95 masks, and surgical masks and confirmed their filtration claims with expert government agencies or our own lab testing. Here’s what we recommend.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com




I'm super annoyed that the first of these did not pop up on a search for N95's on Amazon, even though its right there when you follow that link. 

Edit: And it turns out if you try to buy those, they aren't actually available.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Man, I really can't get tested here. I've been looking into it all day. You're pretty much locked out if you don't have an "in" in the medical community. I mean, I get it, testing is overtaxed, but it's going to be mighty hard on my small business, which would be a shame to have to happen if I _don't_ have covid. These "home tests" that everyone talks about don't seem to be a thing here.


----------



## Hussar

It's so weird.

I've never even seen an n-95 mask here.  No one wears them.  Just the regular paper masks most of the time, with some folks using cloth masks.

Actually, I tell a lie.  I did actually see a box of kn-95 (I assume that's the same) at the store the other day.  Never worn one and never seen one worn by any of my students, but, it doesn't seem to be all that necessary.

But, as far as "Oh, I'm not going to be around people goes," here, walking at 6:30 in the morning, pretty much no people around, I still see every other walker - people walking their dogs or like me out for a walk before work - and 100% of these people are masked.

AFAIK, there's no such thing as "Oh, it's okay to not mask".  It just doesn't exist.  Here you might as well say, "Oh, it's okay to walk around without pants".  It just doesn't happen.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Hussar said:


> Actually, I tell a lie.  I did actually see a box of kn-95 (I assume that's the same) at the store the other day.  Never worn one and never seen one worn by any of my students, but, it doesn't seem to be all that necessary.




They're not quite the same. The KN-95 is the Chinese standard; the N-95 is the U.S. standard.  I forget the exact difference bet they're pretty close.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> But, as far as "Oh, I'm not going to be around people goes," here, walking at 6:30 in the morning, pretty much no people around, I still see every other walker - people walking their dogs or like me out for a walk before work - and 100% of these people are masked.
> 
> AFAIK, there's no such thing as "Oh, it's okay to not mask".  It just doesn't exist.  Here you might as well say, "Oh, it's okay to walk around without pants".  It just doesn't happen.




Sure, as a cultural thing, that makes some sense.  Everyone doing it _always_ makes it a habit and supports compliance.

But, in terms of the science, there's no need to mask outdoors if you are more than about 10' from people.  It isn't like smog that fills the outdoors air.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> They're not quite the same. The KN-95 is the Chinese standard; the N-95 is the U.S. standard.  I forget the exact difference bet they're pretty close.




There are some small differences.  Both are designed to filter out 95% of 0.3 micron particles, and for most people's use, they are equivalent.

1) The KN95 requires a fit test as part of the certification, meaning they have to put it on an human being, and demonstrate it has <8% leakage.  The N95 does not make this fit test part of the standard.

2) The N95 has slightly stricter standards for pressure drop across the mask when inhaling and exhaling, so you might find an N95 more breathable.

3) The real practical issue is that there's _TONS_ of counterfeit KN95s on the market, while there are few counterfeit N95s.  KN95s are usually cheaper than N95s.


----------



## Zardnaar

NZ meme.



  Context NZs greatest comedian. 
Sophisticated Weaponary


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> There are some small differences.  Both are designed to filter out 95% of 0.3 micron particles, and for most people's use, they are equivalent.
> 
> 1) The KN95 requires a fit test as part of the certification, meaning they have to put it on an human being, and demonstrate it has <8% leakage.  The N95 does not make this fit test part of the standard.
> 
> 2) The N95 has slightly stricter standards for pressure drop across the mask when inhaling and exhaling, so you might find an N95 more breathable.
> 
> 3) The real practical issue is that there's _TONS_ of counterfeit KN95s on the market, while there are few counterfeit N95s.  KN95s are usually cheaper than N95s.



Here’s a link for those who want a bit more detail:








						What's The Difference Between N95 and KN95 Masks? - Smart Air
					

This handy chart summarizes the difference between N95 and KN95 masks. On the metric most people care about--particle capture--the two masks are the same.



					smartairfilters.com


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> Sure, as a cultural thing, that makes some sense.  Everyone doing it _always_ makes it a habit and supports compliance.
> 
> But, in terms of the science, there's no need to mask outdoors if you are more than about 10' from people.  It isn't like smog that fills the outdoors air.



That's the thing though - it's not about "need".  It's about actually caring about other people.  When it becomes a habit, then, there's no real need for enforcement.  

And, let's be honest here, it's pretty effective.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> That's the thing though - it's not about "need".  It's about actually caring about other people.




Eh. This is perhaps not the place for long discussions of the differences between a cultural tradition of caring, and a cultural tradition of compliance and abnegation.  I'll just say that maybe that assertion would hold up better if the workplace suicide rate wasn't quite so high.



Hussar said:


> When it becomes a habit, then, there's no real need for enforcement.
> 
> And, let's be honest here, it's pretty effective.




No argument there.  I just am not a fan of absolute social rules.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> Eh. This is perhaps not the place for long discussions of the differences between a cultural tradition of caring, and a cultural tradition of compliance and abnegation.  I'll just say that maybe that assertion would hold up better if the workplace suicide rate wasn't quite so high.



The USA age standardized suicide rate is higher than Japan's.  At least on Wikipedia.

And they are in a similar ballpark.

Japan's homicide rate is rounding error compared to suicide; not so much in the USA.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

NotAYakk said:


> The USA age standardized suicide rate is higher than Japan's.  At least on Wikipedia.









						Suicide in Japan - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




See also-


			Suicide Rate by Country 2022
		

"Japan's total numbers place it significantly outside the top 10, but suicide is nonetheless a serious concern there. Suicide is the leading cause of death in men between the ages of 20-44 and women between the ages of 15-34."

Looking at the numbers in isolation (just population) doesn't really do it justice given that Japan's population skews so old- it really is a crisis for the young.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> The USA age standardized suicide rate is higher than Japan's.  At least on Wikipedia.




Yeah, but I didn't claim we were a country of folks who cared about each other, either.  



NotAYakk said:


> Japan's homicide rate is rounding error compared to.suicide; not so much in the USA.




I did not present the USA as a paragon of virtue here, so while knocking down the US on this may feel to you like it is knocking down my point, but you are attacking an unrelated strawman.  Japan's workplace suicide rate is high enough to question whether it really has a culture of caring for one another, without any appearance of the US in the discussion.

And in this, we see why discussions go badly.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> 3) The real practical issue is that there's _TONS_ of counterfeit KN95s on the market, while there are few counterfeit N95s.  KN95s are usually cheaper than N95s.




Yeah, when I was searching I found a lot of KN95's, but looking at the reviews they all seemed dodgy.

The biggest complaint I saw about the few N95's I saw was that they seemed too small, which admittedly, as someone with a big head is a concern.


----------



## Cadence

Working at my university (in the SE US), it feels odd/sad to read about the lack of tests.  Faculty and students here could do pretty much an unlimited number of saliva tests with no waiting and get the results back by the next morning at latest.  It's sad that folks in general don't even have a meaningful fraction of that support.


----------



## Cadence

@Umbran  (and anyone else who might know/speculate off the top of their head).  

I was listening to an old radio drama where there was a fictional (I think) substance that was a contact poison in its powder form, but not when it was mixed in water.  So the way to use it diabolically was to carry it around diluted, paint it on what your target would touch, and then be sure not to touch it yourself after it dried.   This got me thinking about cloth masks that are worn for a long time or reused without sitting several days.  So, the mask does what we're hoping it does and catches the droplet with the virus because the droplet is well above the minimum size.  After the droplet dries, is the virus just sitting on the mask and capable of getting inhaled through?


----------



## Maxperson

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Ugh.
> Double vaxxed and boosted. Took all reasonable precautions. Had to take a required trip for work after Xmas.
> 
> … and just tested positive for the ‘rona. 2022, everybody!
> 
> (so far, it’s like a bad cold- one day of symptoms.)



Just saw this.  Hope things are still mild(or better) for you.  Get well soon.


----------



## Rabulias

Cadence said:


> @Umbran  (and anyone else who might know/speculate off the top of their head).
> 
> I was listening to an old radio drama where there was a fictional (I think) substance that was a contact poison in its powder form, but not when it was mixed in water.  So the way to use it diabolically was to carry it around diluted, paint it on what your target would touch, and then be sure not to touch it yourself after it dried.   This got me thinking about cloth masks that are worn for a long time or reused without sitting several days.  So, the mask does what we're hoping it does and catches the droplet with the virus because the droplet is well above the minimum size.  After the droplet dries, is the virus just sitting on the mask and capable of getting inhaled through?



I am no expert at all, but I believe that if the mask fully dries, any virus on it will die. I don't think you have "dehydrated virus - just add water!"


----------



## CleverNickName

Sheesh, we're supposed to flatten the curve *on the x-axis,* not the y.


----------



## Zardnaar

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Suicide in Japan - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> See also-
> 
> 
> Suicide Rate by Country 2022
> 
> 
> "Japan's total numbers place it significantly outside the top 10, but suicide is nonetheless a serious concern there. Suicide is the leading cause of death in men between the ages of 20-44 and women between the ages of 15-34."
> 
> Looking at the numbers in isolation (just population) doesn't really do it justice given that Japan's population skews so old- it really is a crisis for the young.




 That's a cheery read. Thought my country would be bad as the media was sensationalizing it now they don't directly mention when it happens.


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> I was listening to an old radio drama where there was a fictional (I think) substance that was a contact poison in its powder form, but not when it was mixed in water.  So the way to use it diabolically was to carry it around diluted, paint it on what your target would touch, and then be sure not to touch it yourself after it dried.   This got me thinking about cloth masks that are worn for a long time or reused without sitting several days.  So, the mask does what we're hoping it does and catches the droplet with the virus because the droplet is well above the minimum size.  After the droplet dries, is the virus just sitting on the mask and capable of getting inhaled through?




For other contaminants, yes.  Like, say mold spores - if you wear a mask to protect yourself from mold, and then handle the mask afterwards, you can contaminate yourself.

Coronaviruses, however, are not hardy in that way.  If the drops they are in dry out, they quickly die.

Mind you, some viruses _do_ survive in such a state.  Just not coronaviruses.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Maxperson said:


> Just saw this.  Hope things are still mild(or better) for you.  Get well soon.




Well, for those curious-
Sunday I started to feel something.
Monday was rough, ESPECIALLY Monday night.
Tuesday morning tested positive.
Tuesday through Wednesday was like a bad cold.
Today I'm feeling better, with a lingering cough and slight congestion, but the headache and other symptoms are gone. 
Currently planning on continuing the quarantine and re-testing Saturday, assuming our tests hold out until then. 

But the area I am in is absolutely devastated right now. Luckily, we have a fairly high vax rate, but it is crazy with things shutting down, police escorts for testing sites, and so on. It's kind of surreal how quickly the post-holiday wave just crashed over us. 

The high vax rate is the real saving grace, as there are a huge number of positives, but our medical situation is seriously strained right now, but not completely overwhelmed. That said, if you have something other than COVID, you're S.O.L.


----------



## Maxperson

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Well, for those curious-
> Sunday I started to feel something.
> Monday was rough, ESPECIALLY Monday night.
> Tuesday morning tested positive.
> Tuesday through Wednesday was like a bad cold.
> Today I'm feeling better, with a lingering cough and slight congestion, but the headache and other symptoms are gone.
> Currently planning on continuing the quarantine and re-testing Saturday, assuming our tests hold out until then.
> 
> But the area I am in is absolutely devastated right now. Luckily, we have a fairly high vax rate, but it is crazy with things shutting down, police escorts for testing sites, and so on. It's kind of surreal how quickly the post-holiday wave just crashed over us.
> 
> The high vax rate is the real saving grace, as there are a huge number of positives, but our medical situation is seriously strained right now, but not completely overwhelmed. That said, if you have something other than COVID, you're S.O.L.



I'm glad you are feeling better.  And yes, it's just crazy how bad things became and how quickly it happened.  My group is going back to virtual gaming for a while.  It's just not worth the risk with literally everyone in the group knowing people who are getting covid and/or having close contacts.


----------



## CleverNickName

Maxperson said:


> I'm glad you are feeling better.  And yes, it's just crazy how bad things became and how quickly it happened.  My group is going back to virtual gaming for a while.  It's just not worth the risk with literally everyone in the group knowing people who are getting covid and/or having close contacts.



My gaming group is getting together tomorrow night for our annual "holiday" dinner and gift exchange (we do a Secret Santa thing every year).  It's also the time of the year that we have our group discussion on the State of the Group where we talk about the campaign, changes we'd like to make, who's going to be the DM next, and all that.

(We're going about it as safely as we can, we are all getting tested beforehand and we'll be wearing masks and all that.  )

One of the things I expect we are going to discuss, over various amounts of cheese and ham, is whether or not we were ready to go back to in-person gaming.  But honestly, I don't think we ever will.  We've been playing virtually for so long, that we're pretty comfortable with it...it's really convenient to not have to worry about traffic, parking, food, designated drivers, babysitters, etc.  This most recent spike in Covid-19 cases isn't helping anyone feel safer, either, and nobody really thinks the pandemic is going to end anytime soon.

I predict that we will be a virtual group for at least another year, and possibly from now on.


----------



## Mannahnin

GreyLord said:


> Yes, I've been lucky with that thus far.  When they first started selling them I bought tons of masks.  I can't find them anywhere around here anymore, so what I have is it.  I'm lucky that I still have a decent supply, but once it is gone I'll have to go online and see if I can somehow determine which are the official ones and which ones are not.  It seems hard to figure it out from what I've seen.



Assuming you're in the US, to figure out if it's a NIOSH (National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health)-approved mask, look on the mask for a Testing & Certification approval number.  Then you can check the CEL (Certified Equipment List) to confirm.



			https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/docs/2021-124/pdfs/2021-124.pdf
		






__





						Certified Equipment List | NPPTL | NIOSH | CDC
					

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), under authorization of the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970, provides a testing, approval, and certification program assuring respirators used in the workplace meet the standards of 42 CFR Part 84.




					www.cdc.gov
				









						Approved Particulate Filtering Facepiece Respirators | NPPTL | NIOSH | CDC
					

A listing of NIOSH-Approved Particulate Filtering Facepiece Respirators that health care workers can use to help protect themselves from diseases potentially spread through the air such as SARS or Tuberculosis.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## Mannahnin

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Well, for those curious-
> Sunday I started to feel something.
> Monday was rough, ESPECIALLY Monday night.
> Tuesday morning tested positive.
> Tuesday through Wednesday was like a bad cold.
> Today I'm feeling better, with a lingering cough and slight congestion, but the headache and other symptoms are gone.
> Currently planning on continuing the quarantine and re-testing Saturday, assuming our tests hold out until then.



If you do start to get worse at all, or have cause to see a doctor for any reason, be sure to have your O2 saturation checked.  One of the worst things with Covid has been people having really impaired breathing and decreased lung function while only _feeling _"a little out of breath". 



Snarf Zagyg said:


> But the area I am in is absolutely devastated right now. Luckily, we have a fairly high vax rate, but it is crazy with things shutting down, police escorts for testing sites, and so on. It's kind of surreal how quickly the post-holiday wave just crashed over us.
> 
> The high vax rate is the real saving grace, as there are a huge number of positives, but our medical situation is seriously strained right now, but not completely overwhelmed. That said, if you have something other than COVID, you're S.O.L.



It's really rough.  A friend of mine slipped and broke her arm yesterday (lovely freezing rain here), and when she went to the ER they initially told her it'd be a five hour wait.  Thankfully they did get her in more quickly once the triage nurse was informed it was an acute serious injury.


----------



## Ryujin

Mannahnin said:


> If you do start to get worse at all, or have cause to see a doctor for any reason, be sure to have your O2 saturation checked.  One of the worst things with Covid has been people having really impaired breathing and decreased lung function while only feeling "a little out of breath".



It's precisely this symptom which makes me wonder if I didn't have Covid very early on, prior to the lockdown. During the preceding Jan/Feb I was feeling short of breath and tired easily. Other family members had the same symptoms.


----------



## Mannahnin

Ryujin said:


> It's precisely this symptom which makes me wonder if I didn't have Covid very early on, prior to the lockdown. During the preceding Jan/Feb I was feeling short of breath and tired easily. Other family members had the same symptoms.



It's possible, though I'm speaking specifically about a really serious symptom of lung damage, which doesn't resolve immediately or generally without assistance.  It's scary in part because it doesn't FEEL as bad or dangerous as it is.

Have you felt more out of breath/easily winded ever since, or did you for a period of months?


----------



## Thomas Shey

Cadence said:


> Working at my university (in the SE US), it feels odd/sad to read about the lack of tests.  Faculty and students here could do pretty much an unlimited number of saliva tests with no waiting and get the results back by the next morning at latest.  It's sad that folks in general don't even have a meaningful fraction of that support.




Its very weird locally.  Its not impossible to find a test, but if you don't have an HMO (where you can get it immediately but will likely have to deal with the usual "wait two hours to get it done) or are having to go to a hospital for something else, the wait times run around a week--which seems to defeat half the point.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Cadence said:


> @Umbran  (and anyone else who might know/speculate off the top of their head).
> 
> I was listening to an old radio drama where there was a fictional (I think) substance that was a contact poison in its powder form, but not when it was mixed in water.  So the way to use it diabolically was to carry it around diluted, paint it on what your target would touch, and then be sure not to touch it yourself after it dried.   This got me thinking about cloth masks that are worn for a long time or reused without sitting several days.  So, the mask does what we're hoping it does and catches the droplet with the virus because the droplet is well above the minimum size.  After the droplet dries, is the virus just sitting on the mask and capable of getting inhaled through?




Technically for a bit, but a mask is usually a porous surface, so its survival time is fairly limited (I believe the listed best time is for non-porous materials and is up to 72 hours).


----------



## Ryujin

Mannahnin said:


> It's possible, though I'm speaking specifically about a really serious symptom of lung damage, which doesn't resolve immediately or generally without assistance.  It's scary in part because it doesn't FEEL as bad or dangerous as it is.
> 
> Have you felt more out of breath/easily winded ever since, or did you for a period of months?



It lasted for about a month and a half, for me. At least a month for other family members. I have pre-existing issues due to several bouts of pneumonia, as a child, which could explain the longer duration.


----------



## Mannahnin

Ryujin said:


> It lasted for about a month and a half, for me. At least a month for other family members. I have pre-existing issues due to several bouts of pneumonia, as a child, which could explain the longer duration.



Well, I'm glad you folks are doing better!  Definitely take care in the current wave.  The curve is like a hockey stick right now, and I don't expect we'll see the other side of this peak until sometime in February.


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> Yeah, but I didn't claim we were a country of folks who cared about each other, either.
> 
> 
> 
> I did not present the USA as a paragon of virtue here, so while knocking down the US on this may feel to you like it is knocking down my point, but you are attacking an unrelated strawman.  Japan's workplace suicide rate is high enough to question whether it really has a culture of caring for one another, without any appearance of the US in the discussion.
> 
> And in this, we see why discussions go badly.



Heh, this is why reading further in a thread before responding is a must.  I totally agree with you here and just spent a few minutes erasing my first, knee jerk response.


----------



## Baron Opal II

Cadence said:


> @Umbran  (and anyone else who might know/speculate off the top of their head).
> 
> I was listening to an old radio drama where there was a fictional (I think) substance that was a contact poison in its powder form, but not when it was mixed in water.  So the way to use it diabolically was to carry it around diluted, paint it on what your target would touch, and then be sure not to touch it yourself after it dried.   This got me thinking about cloth masks that are worn for a long time or reused without sitting several days.  So, the mask does what we're hoping it does and catches the droplet with the virus because the droplet is well above the minimum size.  After the droplet dries, is the virus just sitting on the mask and capable of getting inhaled through?



It depends on the virus. If it dries completely out I believe the capsid breaks and the virus becomes inactive. It's why fomite transmission is considered poor for this virus, although not all enveloped viruses have the same vulnerability.


----------



## Umbran

So, for folks who like data, and want a way to think about how this current surge is going (at least here in Massachusetts), we can compare this year, to last.



Spoiler: Cases:












Spoiler: Hospitalizations:











Spoiler: And Deaths:









Data from:  How this COVID surge compares to last winter, and when it could peak in Massachusetts


----------



## Hussar

I guess I'm just really, really frustrated with having to do the right thing all the time, and then watching people like those Canadian idiots in Mexico - Canadian Idiots Stranded in Mexico - basically act like spoiled children and screw things up for those of us who are actually trying to fix the problem.

If folks had just done what the doctors suggested TWO FREAKING YEARS AGO, we'd be out of this mess by now.  Saying that it's "just a difference in culture" doesn't really help frankly.  It would be nice if folks would just get with the program so we could finally put this crap behind us.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> I guess I'm just really, really frustrated with having to do the right thing all the time, and then watching people like those Canadian idiots in Mexico - Canadian Idiots Stranded in Mexico - basically act like spoiled children and screw things up for those of us who are actually trying to fix the problem.
> 
> If folks had just done what the doctors suggested TWO FREAKING YEARS AGO, we'd be out of this mess by now.  Saying that it's "just a difference in culture" doesn't really help frankly.  It would be nice if folks would just get with the program so we could finally put this crap behind us.




 We are aware. Unfortunately NZ can't rule the world yet that's our long term plan.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> So, for folks who like data, and want a way to think about how this current surge is going (at least here in Massachusetts), we can compare this year, to last.
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Cases:
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 149500
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Hospitalizations:
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 149501
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: And Deaths:
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 149502
> 
> 
> 
> Data from:  How this COVID surge compares to last winter, and when it could peak in Massachusetts




Are the hospitalization numbers everyone at a hospital who has tested positive, or those with relevant hospital-worthy symptoms or follow-up conditions who tested positive?

Pre-omicron, the hospitalization numbers were what I looked to to see severity, but now I'm not sure.    In any case, I continue to be appalled at what information we don't collect uniformly in the states.


----------



## Zardnaar

Gonna attempt a walk in booster tomorrow at 9am when they open. 



 Tonight's yum yum. All the staff are masked and git vaccine passed for entry. 

 Still have to scan in on the phone the pass and location tracker are separate things. Phone gets scanned and you scam the QR code. 

 If they have Moderna gonna try that but it's probably Pfizer. Book in place offers AZ.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Some insight into the possible causative mechanisms of long COVID: resistant microclots.










						South African scientist thinks she may have solved the mystery of long COVID-19, which afflicts 100M people
					

A recent study by Resia Pretorius and her team at Stellenbosch University in South Africa suggests that long COVID-19 may be triggered by microclots.




					thehill.com


----------



## Imaculata

Just got my booster shot. It is quite a relief to know that you have an extra layer of protection. The Netherlands is currently dealing with a lot of people that are hesitant to get the booster, believing they don't need it or that it won't protect against the omicron variant.


----------



## Baron Opal II

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Some insight into the possible causative mechanisms of long COVID: resistant microclots.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> South African scientist thinks she may have solved the mystery of long COVID-19, which afflicts 100M people
> 
> 
> A recent study by Resia Pretorius and her team at Stellenbosch University in South Africa suggests that long COVID-19 may be triggered by microclots.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thehill.com



Excellent! That's been a prevailing theory but it is great to see she may have found some proof.


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> I guess I'm just really, really frustrated with having to do the right thing all the time, and then watching people like those Canadian idiots in Mexico - Canadian Idiots Stranded in Mexico - basically act like spoiled children and screw things up for those of us who are actually trying to fix the problem.
> 
> If folks had just done what the doctors suggested TWO FREAKING YEARS AGO, we'd be out of this mess by now.  Saying that it's "just a difference in culture" doesn't really help frankly.  It would be nice if folks would just get with the program so we could finally put this crap behind us.



More than a dozen have already managed to come back on other flights, most likely while Covid positive. It was a bunch of reality TV "stars", social media influencers, and late teens/early 20s. Pretty much guaranteed to be a crap show, and it was. The whole bunch might well end up on the no-fly list.


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> Are the hospitalization numbers everyone at a hospital who has tested positive, or those with relevant hospital-worthy symptoms or follow-up conditions who tested positive?



You mean, how do they count someone who has broken their leg badly, but is covid-positive and asymptomatic?  I don't think they count that as a hospitalization _due to covid_ in these numbers.


----------



## Not a Hobbit

People, Governments, Hospitals, Businesses, NGOs, etc. have been manipulating "hospitalized _because_ of covid" vs. "hospitalized _with_ covid" numbers since the pandemic began.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> You mean, how do they count someone who has broken their leg badly, but is covid-positive and asymptomatic?  I don't think they count that as a hospitalization _due to covid_ in these numbers.




That's what I'm hoping.  The names used in the various graphs, tables, etc... aren't all that helpful (and the easily findable graphs don't always go to easily findable definitions).  The "New admissions of patients with confirmed COVID-19" from the CDC, for example, sounds like it might count the broken leg who was positive, but not someone admitted who was later discovered to have COVID or someone whose COVID went away but not the horrible pneumonia that came from it.   (Some of it is picky, but giving having the official sources give doubters more ammunition at this late stage is bleh.)


----------



## Thomas Shey

Not a Hobbit said:


> People, Governments, Hospitals, Businesses, NGOs, etc. have been manipulating "hospitalized _because_ of covid" vs. "hospitalized _with_ covid" numbers since the pandemic began.




Well, part of the issue is that sometimes the separation isn't as clean as one might like.  This comes up in the context of death and what are called "co-morbidities" pretty frequently.  When one has three conditions that mutually reinforce, one of which is COVID, how do you count it?  Some people want to only do so if COVID is clearly and unequivocally the primary cause, but if you follow that logic far enough, HIV never killed anybody.


----------



## Umbran

Ugh.  Hospitalizations for Covid-19 here in MA have increased 40% in a single week.


----------



## Zardnaar

Nice sunny day just got booster. They set up 3 containers in a car park. Dual purpose vax and testing site. 15 minute wait and off. Wasn't very busy only delay was them checking the database. Only option was Pfizer.


----------



## Maxperson

Umbran said:


> Ugh.  Hospitalizations for Covid-19 here in MA have increased 40% in a single week.



I guess the silver lining is that Omicron isn't as deadly and vaccinations are much higher than last winter.  From the links you provided earlier, the number of Covid cases there is nearly triple what it was last year, but hospitalizations, though a bit higher, are not anywhere near triple.  That's something.

Stay safe.


----------



## Fandabidozi

Zardnaar said:


> We are aware. Unfortunately NZ can't rule the world yet that's our long term plan.



I for one welcome our NZ overlords.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

F.Y.I. Viagra may be added to the list of drugs used for *therapeutic *(not preventative) treatment of COVID.









						UK nurse reportedly recovers from COVID-19 coma after receiving Viagra
					

Monica Almeida spent 28 days in a coma after contracting COVID-19 and was just 72 hours from her ventilator being turned off when she was saved by a “large dose of Viagra.”




					nypost.com
				












						Sildenafil for treating patients with COVID-19 and perfusion mismatch: a pilot randomized trial - PubMed
					

Sildenafil for treating patients with COVID-19 and perfusion mismatch: a pilot randomized trial, NCT04489446, Registered 28 July 2020, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04489446 .




					pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> F.Y.I. Viagra may be added to the list of drugs used for *therapeutic *(not preventative) treatment of COVID.




Well, the stuff was originally developed to treat pulmonary hypertension, so it helping in perfusion mismatch in the lungs is understandable.  It's ED effect was noticed as a side effect because the overlap of ED and pulmonary hypertension in older men is large.


----------



## Hussar

Sorry, @Umbran, but, "ED"?


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Sorry, @Umbran, but, "ED"?




 Lol sweet summer child.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> Sorry, @Umbran, but, "ED"?



“Erectile Disfunction”


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Sorry, @Umbran, but, "ED"?




My apologies - I figured that in a discussion of Viagra, folks would know the acronym for Erectile Dysfunction, the problem Viagra is most famous for treating.


----------



## Imaculata

So I guess we should all be buying stocks in Viagra right now?


----------



## Hussar

/hangs head in sheepishness.

To be fair, I've been living in Japan so long that I never see these ads.  I remember one of the last times I was in Canada, few years back, and saw all these Ciallis (sp) ads.  I hadn't the first freaking clue what they were advertising.  I had to actually ask someone what the heck these things were.  

I can honestly say that I've never seen any sort of Viagra or anything like that ad on Japanese TV.  Then again, the Japanese are WAYYYYY behind when it comes to stuff like that.  I mean, good grief, I remember when they made the pill available in this country.  :wow:


----------



## Mezuka

We reverted to online play mid-november when I learned about Omicron. Some players were not happy but, today, seeing the situation in our part of the world, they agree it was a good move.


----------



## Zardnaar

Got booster couple of days ago. Easiest one yet. Bit tender but no stiffness or dead arm post punch levels of pain.


----------



## Imaculata

I felt a bit tired and under the weather, the day after receiving the booster. Plus the standard bruised arm feeling. But now I feel fine.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Dannyalcatraz said:


> “Erectile Disfunction”




Oh, I though it GAVE you an ED.

You know. An engorged d***.


I can see the t-shirts now. I came here to get my COVID treated, but all I got was a raging b****.


----------



## CapnZapp

* _looks up very confusedly_ *


----------



## Eltab

Somebody has got to be pulling out those "Viagra makes you the life of the party" ads with tiny tiny print "Do not mix with alcohol", and looking for a way to cash in (again) on over-enthusiastic users.


----------



## Maxperson

When this thread started, never in my wildest imaginations did I think we would ever get up to this topic.


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> When this thread started, never in my wildest imaginations did I think we would ever get up to this topic.




 Yeah it's a hard one.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Yeah it's a hard one.



I assume the thread will be back to normal soon.  Should call a mod if it keeps up too long.


----------



## Maxperson

Cadence said:


> I assume the thread will be back to normal soon.  Should call a mod if it keeps up too long.



It has already been longer than 4 hours.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Maxperson said:


> It has already been longer than 4 hours.




Well, we should just discussing Margaret Thatcher. And baseball.


----------



## Zardnaar

Anti vax doctor stripped of her license. 









						Kaiapoi vax exemption doctor no longer able to practise
					

Jonie Girouard was caught out providing fake Covid-19 vaccine exemptions. Now she can no longer practice medicine in New Zealand.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## J.Quondam

I kn after getting my sibs to weigh in, asking friends for help, and looking online for advice, I'm getting to my wits end. So...

Any suggestions how to  this is frustrating, so if anyone has advice or similar experience, I'm all ears.


----------



## Cadence

J.Quondam said:


> I know this isn't the best place for this, but after getting my sibs to weigh in, asking friends for help, and looking online for advice, I'm getting to my wits end. So...
> 
> Any suggestions how to get my mother to go to the doctor? She's 70-ish, had a cough for nearly a week, and it doesn't seem to be getting better... but she's refusing to visit a clinic. She's never been shy about going to the doctor, so this is unusual. She and my father are both covid anti-vaxxers (and _only_ covid anti-vaxxers), so I strongly suspect her intransigence arises from a potential collision between her, umm, politics and medical reality.
> I'll never bring that up, of course; and I haven't even said the word "covid", in fact. And we've been light-touch on this so far, since I know pushing too hard usually just makes people more stubborn.
> But this is frustrating, so if anyone has advice or similar experience, I'm all ears.




Not used as an excuse in a case like yours, but based on a true story...

"A friend online was talking about how their spouse and kid's reflux were making them all coughy the last few weeks and that starting to take the prescription they had again helped a lot.  If that's it, and not just an annoying cold, a doc might be able to clear it up."


----------



## Ryujin

J.Quondam said:


> I know this isn't the best place for this, but after getting my sibs to weigh in, asking friends for help, and looking online for advice, I'm getting to my wits end. So...
> 
> Any suggestions how to get my mother to go to the doctor? She's 70-ish, had a cough for nearly a week, and it doesn't seem to be getting better... but she's refusing to visit a clinic. She's never been shy about going to the doctor, so this is unusual. She and my father are both covid anti-vaxxers (and _only_ covid anti-vaxxers), so I strongly suspect her intransigence arises from a potential collision between her, umm, politics and medical reality.
> I'll never bring that up, of course; and I haven't even said the word "covid", in fact. And we've been light-touch on this so far, since I know pushing too hard usually just makes people more stubborn.
> But this is frustrating, so if anyone has advice or similar experience, I'm all ears.



"Do you know how many seniors suffer serious bouts of pneumonia? It can kill you, or make you need an oxygen tank for the rest of your life."

And the big guns; the internet: Elderly Pneumonia: Symptoms, Causes, Treatment & Prevention


----------



## J.Quondam

Thanks for the replies. I've tried relating my own experiences, like "I've had a couple bouts of bronchitis last for weeks, and it was gone within a week when I got antibiotics from the doc." Meanwhile, trying to avoid guilt or fear as motivators. But no dice, yet.

I honestly think she's afraid it's covid-- not because it's a dangerous illness, but because that would be an "inconvenient" development. Getting past _that_ hurdle is really what's tripping me up; if it was a rash or eye problem or something, she'd have no complaint about seeing a doctor. 

Oh well, I'll keep at it.
Thanks again.


----------



## Cadence

J.Quondam said:


> Thanks for the replies. I've tried relating my own experiences, like "I've had a couple bouts of bronchitis last for weeks, and it was gone within a week when I got antibiotics from the doc." Meanwhile, trying to avoid guilt or fear as motivators. But no dice, yet.
> 
> I honestly think she's afraid it's covid-- not because it's a dangerous illness, but because that would be an "inconvenient" development. Getting past _that_ hurdle is really what's tripping me up; if it was a rash or eye problem or something, she'd have no complaint about seeing a doctor.
> 
> Oh well, I'll keep at it.
> Thanks again.




If it was my dad and it was needed, I'd try bawking like a chicken at him when he said no, just to goad him into it, and then bet him something it was COVID and that he was scared to prove me wrong.   Can't see that ever working with my mom.

Hope whatever it is clears up on its own quickly!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Don’t want Big Pharma’s COVID vaccines?  Drink your urine!









						‘Drink urine,’ anti-COVID vaccine advocate tells supporters
					

The consumption of urine, known as urophagia or urine therapy, has been practiced by some for centuries, though benefits have not been scientifically proven.




					www.kxan.com


----------



## Tamlyn

J.Quondam said:


> I know this isn't the best place for this, but after getting my sibs to weigh in, asking friends for help, and looking online for advice, I'm getting to my wits end. So...
> 
> Any suggestions how to get my mother to go to the doctor? She's 70-ish, had a cough for nearly a week, and it doesn't seem to be getting better... but she's refusing to visit a clinic. She's never been shy about going to the doctor, so this is unusual. She and my father are both covid anti-vaxxers (and _only_ covid anti-vaxxers), so I strongly suspect her intransigence arises from a potential collision between her, umm, politics and medical reality.
> I'll never bring that up, of course; and I haven't even said the word "covid", in fact. And we've been light-touch on this so far, since I know pushing too hard usually just makes people more stubborn.
> But this is frustrating, so if anyone has advice or similar experience, I'm all ears.



Like @Ryujin mentioned it could be pneumonia, which can be pretty scary by itself. 

From personal experience, my whole family and I got Covid and no one had a cough. Except for me. I had a nasty, wracking cough that we got checked, discovered it was pneumonia, and needed steroids to get cleared up. So, I'd say you're concerned it's pneumonia and continue to not mention that other thing.

Besides, if it's pneumonia (or Covid) better to identify it and treat it before it becomes a big deal. Her opinion on the vaccine doesn't really matter at this point - you're not trying to get her jabbed. She just needs to make sure that cough isn't a sign of something serious.


----------



## GreyLord

J.Quondam said:


> I know this isn't the best place for this, but after getting my sibs to weigh in, asking friends for help, and looking online for advice, I'm getting to my wits end. So...
> 
> Any suggestions how to get my mother to go to the doctor? She's 70-ish, had a cough for nearly a week, and it doesn't seem to be getting better... but she's refusing to visit a clinic. She's never been shy about going to the doctor, so this is unusual. She and my father are both covid anti-vaxxers (and _only_ covid anti-vaxxers), so I strongly suspect her intransigence arises from a potential collision between her, umm, politics and medical reality.
> I'll never bring that up, of course; and I haven't even said the word "covid", in fact. And we've been light-touch on this so far, since I know pushing too hard usually just makes people more stubborn.
> But this is frustrating, so if anyone has advice or similar experience, I'm all ears.




Don't tell her it's about Covid.  Instead tell her that it sounds as if her cough is really bad and that you are afraid she may have gotten the recent RSV (like a cold, not Covid, and you can explain it is explicitly NOT Covid) that has been going around.  You are concerned as it can affect older adults adversely and it's been spreading really quickly among young children even and doing more harm to the kids than Covid recently.  That you'd like her to get it checked out just in case, as the sooner they see her the easier it is to treat and such.

Not sure if that would help, but as you are approaching it from an angle that it is NOT Covid, but something else may help prompt her to seek out help.

PS:  The above is true, there is an RSV that's been going around among kids recently that can also cause Pneumonia.  Normally it is mild, but occasionally can spark into something worse, especially among young kids or the elderly.  Covid has been in the headlines, but the RSV has been rather prevalent recently.  So, you are actually telling the truth, even if it could also have a Covid test while at the doctor's as well and treat it also if that's what pops up.


----------



## Maxperson

J.Quondam said:


> Thanks for the replies. I've tried relating my own experiences, like "I've had a couple bouts of bronchitis last for weeks, and it was gone within a week when I got antibiotics from the doc." *Meanwhile, trying to avoid guilt or fear as motivators.* But no dice, yet.



If it were my mother I wouldn't count out any tactic.  Her life is more important than whether I guilted or scared her into it and Covid can turn ugly very quickly.


----------



## Imaculata

The Netherlands is back in lockdown, which is prompting a lot of Dutch citizens to go shopping in Belgium, which is just across the border, and isn't in lockdown.

I was talking to someone last week, who thought the whole lockdown was just a bunch of BS, because Belgium isn't in lockdown. I told him, have you ever looked at the roads in Belgium? And you want to follow their health advise?!


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> The Netherlands is back in lockdown, which is prompting a lot of Dutch citizens to go shopping in Belgium, which is just across the border, and isn't in lockdown.
> 
> I was talking to someone last week, who thought the whole lockdown was just a bunch of BS, because Belgium isn't in lockdown. I told him, have you ever looked at the roads in Belgium? And you want to follow their health advise?!




 That's the big surprise for me. Didn't have  much faith for the usual suspects but Belgium, Germany, Sweden etc would do better.


----------



## Cadence

My parents hometown in the midwest (250k metro area) is down to two ICU beds.

From our local school districts here in the southeast:
493 positive students (2,118 in quarantine), 126 positive staff (223 in quarantine) - 27k students in district
304 positive students (1,547 in quarantine), 45 positive staff (68 in quarantine) - 17.5k students in district
139 positive students (607 in quarantine), 64 positive staff (38 in quarantine) - 9k students in district


----------



## Eltab

J.Quondam said:


> I know this isn't the best place for this, but after getting my sibs to weigh in, asking friends for help, and looking online for advice, I'm getting to my wits end. So...
> 
> Any suggestions how to get my mother to go to the doctor? She's 70-ish, had a cough for nearly a week, and it doesn't seem to be getting better... but she's refusing to visit a clinic. She's never been shy about going to the doctor, so this is unusual. She and my father are both covid anti-vaxxers (and _only_ covid anti-vaxxers), so I strongly suspect her intransigence arises from a potential collision between her, umm, politics and medical reality.
> I'll never bring that up, of course; and I haven't even said the word "covid", in fact. And we've been light-touch on this so far, since I know pushing too hard usually just makes people more stubborn.
> But this is frustrating, so if anyone has advice or similar experience, I'm all ears.



Personal experience: strep throat is going around.  Check for that.  The treatment is antibiotics (available at any pharmacy) and bed rest.

This is a known understandable possible explanation of her symptoms, with a familiar treatment, and none of the COVID-related nonsense to deal with.

I hope you can get her through this without too much fuss.


----------



## Cadence

Update at our University.  Classes started Monday, mostly in person.  All of my class masked and actually had them covering their noses.  The outer filter on the HEPA filter in the room looked gross at the end of last week when I checked and called it in, forgot to check when I taught if it had been replaced.  I guess it's not the important one anyway.


----------



## Umbran

Here is some good news...









						'Unambiguously good news': Sharp decline in COVID wastewater levels in Boston area
					

New data suggest omicron cases have peaked in the Boston area. But, experts warn, we are not out of the woods yet. The strained health care system will likely feel the repercussions of the omicron variant for the next month or so.




					www.wbur.org


----------



## Hussar

Cadence said:


> Update at our University.  Classes started Monday, mostly in person.  All of my class masked and actually had them covering their noses.  The outer filter on the HEPA filter in the room looked gross at the end of last week when I checked and called it in, forgot to check when I taught if it had been replaced.  I guess it's not the important one anyway.
> 
> View attachment 149783
> View attachment 149784



Holy crap.

A quarter of your students test positive and you're STILL in classes?  There are no words.


----------



## Cadence

:


Hussar said:


> Holy crap.
> 
> A quarter of your students test positive and you're STILL in classes?  There are no words.




It's even "better".  They moved the "Overall Alert Level" from "New Normal" to "Low" (so, still not "Moderate" or "High").     I guess it's good they're not off infecting their parents and grandparents... but I wish I believed for a second they weren't infecting the faculty and folks who work at local businesses.


----------



## Cadence

More news from the US SE...


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> Holy crap.
> 
> A quarter of your students test positive and you're STILL in classes?  There are no words.



The Province of Ontario just announced that classes will continue until there's a 30% absentee rate. That, of course, assumes that parents are diligent about keeping their sick kids home instead of.... you know..... not.


----------



## Imaculata

In more light hearted news:

Looks like someone made a hilariously bad Christian propaganda movie about the virus.

*2025 - The world enslaved by a virus*

The plot summary is hilarious enough. But read the trivia section, which someone clearly edited.

2025 - The World enslaved by a Virus (2021) - IMDb


----------



## Baron Opal II

Ouch...


----------



## Zardnaar

Went camping for holidays. Got vaccine passed in small towns and hometown which was nice. 

 No virus here though. 





 Socially distanced bubble plus booze in the water.


----------



## Garthanos

Imaculata said:


> In more light hearted news:
> 
> Looks like someone made a hilariously bad Christian propaganda movie about the virus.



That I call par for the course. (as opposed to all those great propaganda flicks smdh)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Imaculata said:


> In more light hearted news:
> 
> Looks like someone made a hilariously bad Christian propaganda movie about the virus.
> 
> *2025 - The world enslaved by a virus*
> 
> The plot summary is hilarious enough. But read the trivia section, which someone clearly edited.
> 
> 2025 - The World enslaved by a Virus (2021) - IMDb



No viruses were harmed in the making of this film.


----------



## J.Quondam

Dannyalcatraz said:


> No viruses were harmed in the making of this film.



But many brain cells were probably harmed in the viewing of it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

J.Quondam said:


> But many brain cells were probably harmed in the viewing of it.


----------



## Cadence

2nd and 3rd students from class emailed they'll be out either due to exposure or test.

2 of 6 who were planning to go on a scout outing last weekend missed for positive tests.

Son's friend's grandfather was about to be put on a ventilator, but then oxygen levels went up last night, we'll see.  Lung damage from in past, but family had decided together not to vax.

One colleague in our dept. is out with it and sounds like doing ok.  One in another dept. sounded ragged on zoom from home yesterday.  Another person on the call inanely though they had a false positive because they had no symptoms and were in their office.

Took my own free test yesterday at work (no particular symptoms), negative again.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ordered the four free tests yesterday, so the next time I have a serious question about it maybe I can do something other than guess or wait a week to get a test that will be moot by the time I can get it.


----------



## Cadence

Midweek updates - 

Three local school districts
+/Q Students 232/730  +/Q Staff  111/77  (9k students total)
+/Q Students 523/1,296  +/Q Staff 118/65 (18k students total)
+/Q Students 940/2,480  +/Q Staff  229/166  (27k students total)

University
Positive students 523  (35k total students)
Positive Faculty/Staff 85  (5k full time)


----------



## Garthanos

Thomas Shey said:


> Ordered the four free tests yesterday, so the next time I have a serious question about it maybe I can do something other than guess or wait a week to get a test that will be moot by the time I can get it.



My wife ordered some too.


----------



## Umbran

I did too.  Also took advantage of the insurance reimbursement to pick up some tests in case we need them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Waiting for omicron to breach MIQ they've more or less said it's a matter of time. 

 Delta hadn't arrived locally yet off to a marine dinosaur exhibit at local museum. Vaccine pass required iirc.


----------



## Zardnaar

At museum. Got vaccine passed.




 Covid ad. They are pushing the look after each other angle/aroha(love).





 Science stuff for the kids.



 Liquid nitrogen ice cream is a thing.


----------



## MoonSong

Sadly, I don't expect something like a vaccination pass to ever happen in here... I really can't believe the amount of casual carelessness of many people.... 

At least I've been able to have my booster shot. I've been under the weather the last couple of days, but I have gotten it! (Seriously, my body seems to not like the vaccine very much)


----------



## Mannahnin

MoonSong said:


> At least I've been able to have my booster shot. I've been under the weather the last couple of days, but I have gotten it! (Seriously, my body seems to not like the vaccine very much)



The positive way to look at this (as you may already be aware) is that this means your immune system is having a really strong response and thus the vaccine is potentially going to be highly efficacious for you.


----------



## MoonSong

Mannahnin said:


> The positive way to look at this (as you may already be aware) is that this means your immune system is having a really strong response and thus the vaccine is potentially going to be highly efficacious for you.



Well, that is a nice way to see it. The way I was seeing it was "If I feel this bad with the vaccine which is an imitation, I dodged a bullet with the real thing." Seriously, the first time around I felt articulation pain everywhere and everywhere I've ever been hurt. Which is a lot, I've always been clumsy...


----------



## Mannahnin

MoonSong said:


> Well, that is a nice way to see it. The way I was seeing it was "If I feel this bad with the vaccine which is an imitation, I dodged a bullet with the real thing." Seriously, the first time around I felt articulation pain everywhere and everywhere I've ever been hurt. Which is a lot, I've always been clumsy...



I'm sorry to hear that it was so painful.  I hope the pain is indeed indicative that your immune system took the "training" really seriously and is now a black belt ninja expert at kicking the crap out of Coronavirus.


----------



## CapnZapp

Cadence said:


> Lung damage from in past, but family had decided together not to vax.


----------



## Zardnaar

Emergency omicron announcement at 11am Sunday morning. Just over an hour away. 

 Panic buying started few days ago toilet paper stocks were low.


----------



## NotAYakk

My town probably hasn't omicron peaked; tge wastewater report levels are no higher than chriatmas 2020.  High, but not omicron high.

Unless, ya know, vaccines and masks means we have peaked.  Who knows.

Regardless, Premier (with antivax kids) is reopening province at end of month.

South African excess deaths post Omicron are 30% above baseline.  Sigh.


----------



## Zardnaar

Omicron confirmed probably to late to stamp it out. Or if you can stamp it out.









						Covid-19: Potentially dozens of undetected Omicron cases, modeller says
					

Exposure events have included large gatherings and flights, and the chain of transmission is still unknown.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Toilet paper isle. Fully stocked this morning when we bought some. They're saying don't panic buy but not to leave your house for ten days if you get Covid. 











						'Mad' wave of supermarket panic-shopping in NZ was over in three hours
					

Supermarkets cope with short rush from panic-buyers after toilet paper and paracetamol.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Going to red light system. No lockdowns apparently but all public events with more than 100 people cancelled and further restrictions on no vaccine types over what you can do.

 No Covid locally yetvax rates somewhere north of 90%. Booster rates lower as they're just starting. Nephew (age 7) got his first jab today took an hour and a half. 

 Same place I got my booster couple if weeks ago. 5 minute wait to get jabbed 15 minutee wait to see if you have any reactions. 

 Penny dropped. I've been rotating supplies past two years and keep a reasonable supply of panic buy stuff (Suger, flour, yeast, toilet paper, pasta etc).


----------



## GreyLord

Zardnaar said:


> Omicron confirmed probably to late to stamp it out. Or if you can stamp it out.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19: Potentially dozens of undetected Omicron cases, modeller says
> 
> 
> Exposure events have included large gatherings and flights, and the chain of transmission is still unknown.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toilet paper isle. Fully stocked this morning when we bought some. They're saying don't panic buy but not to leave your house for ten days if you get Covid.
> 
> View attachment 150496
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'Mad' wave of supermarket panic-shopping in NZ was over in three hours
> 
> 
> Supermarkets cope with short rush from panic-buyers after toilet paper and paracetamol.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Going to red light system. No lockdowns apparently but all public events with more than 100 people cancelled and further restrictions on no vaccine types over what you can do.
> 
> No Covid locally yetvax rates somewhere north of 90%. Booster rates lower as they're just starting. Nephew (age 7) got his first jab today took an hour and a half.
> 
> Same place I got my booster couple if weeks ago. 5 minute wait to get jabbed 15 minutee wait to see if you have any reactions.
> 
> Penny dropped. I've been rotating supplies past two years and keep a reasonable supply of panic buy stuff (Suger, flour, yeast, toilet paper, pasta etc).




Good Luck.

We're in the thick of it currently.


----------



## Cadence

We knew they affected the effectiveness of mask types differently, and interact differently with the tests and vaccines, but I hadn't thought about surface survival time.  I wonder what other questions I'm not thinking of.









						Omicron found to have higher environmental stability among SARS-CoV-2 variants
					

A new study compared the SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan strain and all the variants of concern (VOCs) - Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants for their survivability and infectivity.




					www.news-medical.net


----------



## Baron Opal II

That seems still within the range of influenza surface survival, and not a huge increase from Delta.

Still good to know. The main thing I get from this is "wash your hands - still important".


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A possible new vaccine on the horizon developed by the US Army is entering Phase 2 trials after a promising Phase 1.  This one uses a harmless portion of the virus that apparently doesn’t mutate that quickly.  The goal: a pan-coronavirus vaccine.  If it pans out, this could be a significant tool against all the known coronaviruses that affect humans…_and the ones that haven’t jumped into us yet._


Bonus: its current formulation is much easier to store and transport than Moderna’s or Phizer’s vaccines.









						A universal vaccine to end COVID pandemics? It's in the Army's sights
					

The US Army's "pan-coronavirus" vaccine could protect against any COVID variant. Learn how it works and when it might be ready.




					www.cnet.com
				




The article also notes that the Army isn’t alone in seeking a pan-coronavirus vaccine, mentioning a few others that are in the works.


----------



## Imaculata

The WHO anticipates that Europe may be over its Covid peak and that the end of the pandemic may be in sight.

Merciful Zeus, I hope they are right.


----------



## Dioltach

Yes. I consider myself to be a fairly even-tempered person, but I'm starting to get quite fed up with this pandemic.


----------



## J.Quondam

Dioltach said:


> Yes. I consider myself to be a fairly even-tempered person, but I'm starting to get quite fed up with this pandemic.



Me too. All the stresses - especially watching other peoples' reaction to the pandemic - have definitely taken a toll on my mental health.

Stay well, everyone. Hang in there.


----------



## NotAYakk

Dannyalcatraz said:


> A possible new vaccine on the horizon developed by the US Army is entering Phase 2 trials after a promising Phase 1.  This one uses a harmless portion of the virus that apparently doesn’t mutate that quickly.  The goal: a pan-coronavirus vaccine.  If it pans out, this could be a significant tool against all the known coronaviruses that affect humans…_and the ones that haven’t jumped into us yet._
> 
> 
> Bonus: its current formulation is much easier to store and transport than Moderna’s or Phizer’s vaccines.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A universal vaccine to end COVID pandemics? It's in the Army's sights
> 
> 
> The US Army's "pan-coronavirus" vaccine could protect against any COVID variant. Learn how it works and when it might be ready.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnet.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The article also notes that the Army isn’t alone in seeking a pan-coronavirus vaccine, mentioning a few others that are in the works.



From what I read elsewhere, it is a basically like a 20 sided die with various coronovirus protiens stuck to eacg face.

Ie, nothing magical; it just packages a pile of immunogens into one pseudo viral particle.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> From what I read elsewhere, it is a basically like a 20 sided die with various coronovirus protiens stuck to eacg face.




Specifically, they are characteristic proteins that don't seem to change rapidly.

Unfortunately, as soon as you introduce a selective pressure based on those proteins, well, then we are apt to start seeing changes show up.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Specifically, they are characteristic proteins that don't seem to change rapidly.
> 
> Unfortunately, as soon as you introduce a selective pressure based on those proteins, well, then we are apt to start seeing changes show up.



The question then becomes whether the coronaviruses will mutate in response to those pressures in a way that they remain viable AND infectious to humans.


----------



## Zardnaar

25 cases today, 8 linked to omicron in three different cities. 

 10 in hospital 0 in ICU. 









						Covid-19 update: 25 new community cases, including 8 confirmed Omicron cases
					

The Ministry of Health says to date, there are 19 community cases of Covid-19 associated with the January Omicron Cluster - all are in isolation.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Hussar

Welp my daughter is doing home school this week. First time since this all began. Folks are really scared of omicron and are reacting very strongly. 

Just had six of my own students announce they were staying away for a month. Man I’m getting closer and closer to losing my business. 

No stress.


----------



## Cadence

Hussar said:


> Man I’m getting closer and closer to losing my business.




I hope and pray omicron passes quickly and that your business holds on!!


----------



## Retreater

My wife tested positive last week. We have been very cautious and avoided COVID for nearly two years. Cancelled our wedding three times and still haven't had the ceremony or reception. She ended up contracting it at her grandmother's funeral - a small, family gathering which lasted about 20 minutes, with everyone in attendance being fully vaccinated. It's completely gone through her family - I think 9 family members (about half the attendees at the funeral) have tested positive. 
Anyone going into public right now should be very cautious.


----------



## Umbran

And, it gets kind of weird now, too, because, for example, in Massachusetts, case numbers are plummeting.  Over the course of ten days, the new case rate dropped something like 40%!


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Pretty much everywhere they’re looking, the declining side of the omicron spike has the same steepness as the increasing side.


----------



## Zardnaar

If people aren't dying as much this is good? Problem here is we haven't had previous waves so omicron may hot the oldies etc harder idk. 

 Their vax rates are very high though something like 95%+ iirc.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Zardnaar said:


> If people aren't dying as much this is good? Problem here is we haven't had previous waves so omicron may hot the oldies etc harder idk.
> 
> Their vax rates are very high though something like 95%+ iirc.




They should be okay for the most part - omicron tends to cause break through cases, but the vaccines tend to make for milder cases. Still need to watch out for the very weak (and the other 5%), though.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> And, it gets kind of weird now, too, because, for example, in Massachusetts, case numbers are plummeting.  Over the course of ten days, the new case rate dropped something like 40%!




Some material I've seen says that's fairly characteristic of Omicron once it starts to roll back.  Because its so infectious, it tends to roll though exposed populace fast, and then starts to die off.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> Some material I've seen says that's fairly characteristic of Omicron once it starts to roll back.  Because its so infectious, it tends to roll though exposed populace fast, and then starts to die off.




Sure, but that's based on, like, two other populations, so it wasn't something we could really count on.  The drop off could have been due to something about that place, that didn't generalize.


----------



## NotAYakk

Thomas Shey said:


> Some material I've seen says that's fairly characteristic of Omicron once it starts to roll back.  Because its so infectious, it tends to roll though exposed populace fast, and then starts to die off.



Note that the death peak lags the infection peak.  The faster Omicron infection peak means they overlap less.



Infections peaked on Dec 17:








						South Africa: Coronavirus Pandemic Country Profile
					

South Africa: What has been the impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)?




					ourworldindata.org
				




Deaths peaked on Dec 26:


			https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa
		


Baseline deaths are 10k/week.  Delta peaks at 11k/week deaths excess; omicron at 3k/week deaths excess.

The 3k/week is from a population already almost entirely infected by Delta and/or vaccinated.  But the width of the spike is also shorter; I'd eyeball the total excess deaths in the Omicron spike at very roughly 10x smaller than their last Delta-driven wave.

Omicron is "less serious", but 10x less than Delta in a previously immune population isn't night and day.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> Sure, but that's based on, like, two other populations, so it wasn't something we could really count on.  The drop off could have been due to something about that place, that didn't generalize.



I'm a bit concerned our anti-Covid measures here are just slowing the spike instead of stopping it.

There is the start of some evidence that the spike is going down in the wastewater and test positivity numbers, but it also lined up with some extreme weather and a testing shortage.

I just sent my double-vaxxed and N95 wearing elementary age kid back to in person school.  So it worries me.


----------



## Baron Opal II

NotAYakk said:


> I'm a bit concerned our anti-Covid measures here are just slowing the spike instead of stopping it.




That's still a good thing, however.

There are, roughly, four levels of hospital care:
*Observation*- You had a simple procedure or something's a little wonky and we want to keep an eye on you for up to 23 hours.
*Medical / Surgical*- You're sick enough to need hospital care (general pneumonia) or had a non-Thoracic surgery  (hip replacement, gallbladder removal, &c.)
*Step-Down*- You're pretty sick where you need more attention and more intense therapies, but we're not worried you're about to die. Non-major traumas from MVA or GSW are often here, as are those who have recovered enough that they no longer need Critical Care.
*Critical Care*- ICU and equivalent care. You need mechanical assistance to survive (ventilators, ECMO, CVVH, &c.), have major trauma, thoracic surgeries, virulent disease, &c. We need to keep a close eye on you if you're here.

Right now, at the hospital where I work, people who should be in Critical Care are getting housed in Step Down or Med/Surg beds just because we don't have room for them anywhere else. There's a big learning curve going on for nurses and staff who haven't needed to take care of people this sick. Fortunately for me, I've worked at all levels of care, so I can help mentor the staff where I am. But slowing down the inflow of patients at any time gives us more time to send healthy people home or to non-hospital care. It does make things last longer, however. We're about 30% over capacity currently.

Since Omicron is less severe, they need less intense care, so this may be what we need to get sufficient herd immunity to last for the summer, take a breath, and start spreading new therapies to prevent another surge in the fall.


----------



## NotAYakk

Oh yes, I get the advantage. It is a good thing.

But, it also means the dc19/dt is actually positive, so the risk levels are personally higher that the current indicators imply than if dc19/dt was negative.

I am hoping mass vaccination and prior waves have given us a microscopic omicron wave.

It seems unlikely.


----------



## Thomas Shey

NotAYakk said:


> Note that the death peak lags the infection peak.  The faster Omicron infection peak means they overlap less.
> 
> 
> 
> Infections peaked on Dec 17:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> South Africa: Coronavirus Pandemic Country Profile
> 
> 
> South Africa: What has been the impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ourworldindata.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Deaths peaked on Dec 26:
> 
> 
> https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa
> 
> 
> 
> Baseline deaths are 10k/week.  Delta peaks at 11k/week deaths excess; omicron at 3k/week deaths excess.
> 
> The 3k/week is from a population already almost entirely infected by Delta and/or vaccinated.  But the width of the spike is also shorter; I'd eyeball the total excess deaths in the Omicron spike at very roughly 10x smaller than their last Delta-driven wave.
> 
> Omicron is "less serious", but 10x less than Delta in a previously immune population isn't night and day.




Well, the population wasn't immune, just resistant; and the issue with Omicron is that it is significantly less lethal on an infection-by-infection basis--but since its more infectious, the overall number of deaths doesn't necessarily go down all that much (and in parts of the U.S. where vaccination is low, may well have gone up because of that).


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> I am hoping mass vaccination and prior waves have given us a microscopic omicron wave.




If I may ask, where are you?  Your profile says Ontario.  It certainly hasn't been microscopic in Ontario.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> If I may ask, where are you?  Your profile says Ontario.  It certainly hasn't been microscopic in Ontario.
> 
> View attachment 150597



The testing stats are not reliable in Ontario right now, because they where restricted to only be for healthcare workers and particularly vulnerable people.  Also, Ontario aggregate data mostly measures Toronto, which isn't where I live, because Toronto has a lot of people in it.  Ontario is big; driving over the southern "populated" part of it is an almost 24 hour drive (the North contains areas you simply cannot drive to, and the "southern populated" road crosses some very low population density parts, like 0.1 people per km^2)

My "tiny" belief is based off looking at city based wastewater data, and comparing it to Boston's data:



			MWRA - Wastewater COVID-19 Tracking
		


In Boston, the omicron wave was ridiculously huge compared to previous waves.  The same kind of data for my city doesn't show this, the wastewater data barely exceeded the last wave, while Boston's data got about 5x higher than delta waves.  And it wasn't because the previous Boston waves where small; they where larger (deaths, infections, etc) than the local waves where per capita.

My fear is that we are at 1/5th of my city's peak, not past it.  My hope is it peaked days ago.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Also, Ontario aggregate data mostly measures Toronto, which isn't where I live, because Toronto has a lot of people in it.  Ontario is big;




I'm aware - I went to school in upstate NY, about 30 miles from the Canadian border.  



NotAYakk said:


> My "tiny" belief is based off looking at city based wastewater data, and comparing it to Boston's data:
> 
> 
> 
> MWRA - Wastewater COVID-19 Tracking




So, I have to turn your warning about aggregate data back at you. While Ottowa may be comparable in population to Boston Proper, the wastewater plants don't just serve Boston proper - they serve the Greater Boston Area, which has population about five times larger than Ottowa. The Deer Island Treatment Plant data you have there is for the second largest sewage treatment plant in the USA!


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> I'm aware - I went to school in upstate NY, about 30 miles from the Canadian border.
> 
> 
> 
> So, I have to turn your warning about aggregate data back at you. While Ottowa may be comparable in population to Boston Proper, the wastewater plants don't just serve Boston proper - they serve the Greater Boston Area, which has population about five times larger than Ottowa. The Deer Island Treatment Plant data you have there is for the second largest sewage treatment plant in the USA!



Sure, but I'm comparing the sizes of the spikes.

Boston plant had spikes at previous waves.  Those waves where as large, or larger, than Ottawa's.  The Omicron Boston wave was 5x or more larger than previous waves in the wastewater.

Ottawa's Omicron wave ... is the size of the previous wave.  No bigger as yet.  Ottawa previous waves where smaller (per capita) than Boston's in every measure I can find.

So either (a) Ottawa magically avoided a large Omicron wave unlike every other spot in the world I've looked at, or (b) Ottawa's Omicron wave isn't on its way down yet.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> So either (a) Ottawa magically avoided a large Omicron wave unlike every other spot in the world I've looked at, or (b) Ottawa's Omicron wave isn't on its way down yet.




Or, (c) the wastewater signal isn't quite as direct or reliable an indicator as you might like.


Spoiler: Data analysis discussion that might bore some folks



Let us look at this graph:





The orange peak in the middle of the graph is April 8.  The green peak in the middle is about April 17th, with about 313 cases per day at that time.  We might take from this that there's a delay of a bit more than a week between wastewater signal and cases.

But... what about that trough just before the peak?  That's a sharp, drop off from a high on March 10, to a super-low on March 22, before you see that huge spike on April 8th.  But, look at the case rate - if the wastewater is a clear indicator, we should see a massive drop in new cases at the end of March, and that's _nowhere to be seen_.  Cases are continuing to rise over that period.  Indeed, there's even a tiny bump _up_ in cases about a week after that trough.

A critical data analysis eye then reads that entire March-April trough and spike in the wastewater signal as hinkey (yes, that's a technical term).  It is almost like there was a something that preferentially held virus laden water in a reservoir for a while, and then released it later.  There are issues in data analysis or detectors that can also give rise to such.  I can't tell what's happening, but since the cases do not mirror that drop and spike, we should question the validity and/or meaning of it.

So, for example, we could imagine that it _wasn't a real thing_, and did not happen, and that wastewater signal should have been more or less constant from about March 10th to April 20th - around 0.00075 normalized viral copies.

Now, we look at more recent time.  Your ability to measure cases fell off a cliff in the beginning of the year, the cases are consistent with the wastewater signal until then. 

So, if we "correct" that April spike, in April we have a wastewater signal of 0.00075, and a peak of 313 cases per day.  Then, in late December we have a wastewater signal of about 0.0015, and cases up around 800.  Twice the wastewater signal, twice the cases.  Seems legit.

So, overall, I question that April spike more than I question whether you guys have actually had a recent surge in cases.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Ottawa's Omicron wave ... is the size of the previous wave.  No bigger as yet.




So, as noted above, that's not true - at the end of December, before your ability to measure cases failed, you were running _two and a half times_ as many cases as you were in the previous wave.



NotAYakk said:


> Ottawa previous waves where smaller (per capita) than Boston's in every measure I can find.




Yep.  But, your vaccination rate seems to be about 10% higher than ours.  Note that disease behavior does not necessarily scale linearly with population - the larger the urban population the worse it is apt to do, per capita.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> Or, (c) the wastewater signal isn't quite as direct or reliable an indicator as you might like.
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Data analysis discussion that might bore some folks
> 
> 
> 
> Let us look at this graph:
> 
> View attachment 150698
> The orange peak in the middle of the graph is April 8.  The green peak in the middle is about April 17th, with about 313 cases per day at that time.  We might take from this that there's a delay of a bit more than a week between wastewater signal and cases.
> 
> But... what about that trough just before the peak?  That's a sharp, drop off from a high on March 10, to a super-low on March 22, before you see that huge spike on April 8th.  But, look at the case rate - if the wastewater is a clear indicator, we should see a massive drop in new cases at the end of March, and that's _nowhere to be seen_.  Cases are continuing to rise over that period.  Indeed, there's even a tiny bump _up_ in cases about a week after that trough.
> 
> A critical data analysis eye then reads that entire March-April trough and spike in the wastewater signal as hinkey (yes, that's a technical term).  It is almost like there was a something that preferentially held virus laden water in a reservoir for a while, and then released it later.  There are issues in data analysis or detectors that can also give rise to such.  I can't tell what's happening, but since the cases do not mirror that drop and spike, we should question the validity and/or meaning of it.
> 
> So, for example, we could imagine that it _wasn't a real thing_, and did not happen, and that wastewater signal should have been more or less constant from about March 10th to April 20th - around 0.00075 normalized viral copies.
> 
> Now, we look at more recent time.  Your ability to measure cases fell off a cliff in the beginning of the year, the cases are consistent with the wastewater signal until then.
> 
> So, if we "correct" that April spike, in April we have a wastewater signal of 0.00075, and a peak of 313 cases per day.  Then, in late December we have a wastewater signal of about 0.0015, and cases up around 800.  Twice the wastewater signal, twice the cases.  Seems legit.
> 
> So, overall, I question that April spike more than I question whether you guys have actually had a recent surge in cases.



So that trough was a huge melt that caused a signal error, as stormwater and sewage mixed.

There was a bunch of stuff on it at the time (points where coloured etc).

Testing failed before the new year.  By mid dec, they rationed testing.  I believe the problem was we had multiplied testing capacity by doing batch testing (test batches; if any positive, test indivudual.  Low positivity means far fewer individual tests need be done.) which isn't efficient as positivity climbs, so capacity of testing plummitted as need grew.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> So that trough was a huge melt that caused a signal error, as stormwater and sewage mixed.
> 
> There was a bunch of stuff on it at the time (points where coloured etc).




Yeah, that backs me up - the wastewater signals from that period of March and April shouldn't be used for comparison to now.  



NotAYakk said:


> Testing failed before the new year.  By mid dec, they rationed testing.




So, then, the stats I looked at for the end of December are probably _LOW_.  So, we should take it that you were running _OVER 2.5 times the cases_ you were in April.

Absolutely nothing here is saying that somehow the surge is waiting in your future.


----------



## Hussar

Let's not look a gift horse in the mouth though.  Seeing that spike drop like that is a good thing.  Isn't it?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Omicron BA 2- a new variant- has been detected in several countries, including the USA. At this point, data suggests it isn’t  any more _dangerous_ than the original Omicron variant, but amazingly, may be even more transmissible.  Considering that Omicron’s R0 was already second only to measles, that’s startling.









						Omicron BA.2 Variant May Be Extra Transmissible
					

'Only having a transmissibility advantage at this stage of the game isn't a total showstopper'




					www.medpagetoday.com


----------



## NotAYakk

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Omicron BA 2- a new variant- has been detected in several countries, including the USA. At this point, data suggests it isn’t  any more _dangerous_ than the original Omicron variant, but amazingly, may be even more transmissible.  Considering that Omicron’s R0 was already second only to measles, that’s startling.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Omicron BA.2 Variant May Be Extra Transmissible
> 
> 
> 'Only having a transmissibility advantage at this stage of the game isn't a total showstopper'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.medpagetoday.com



The founder effect can be real.

You only notice variants that show up in decent numbers.  Given a pile of variants which spread equally except by chance, some will show up by chance more than others, and those are the ones you'll notice, even though they are no better at spreading than their competition.


----------



## Mirtek

UK and Denmark are going to drop all meassures despite still having high infection rates.

UK seemingly missing the opportunity to call it "Freedom Day 2.0", a shame


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Honestly this is the first time it "feels" like a pandemic to me - aside from reading the daily stats online, for the longest time, I didn't personally know anyone who had covid (at least not for sure, I was terribly sick in the early days, but I couldn't get tested). (Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying I didn't take it seriously before - far from it - I just didn't experience it personally).

But NOW, I am sick with it, one of my employees has it, my best friend's mother has it, some of my gamers have gone through it or are actively going through it, etc.

Seems like a bad time to drop restrictions.


----------



## Cadence

A friend's father passed from it last night. The family had decided not to get vaccinated in spite of various medical conditions and they all caught it just before Christmas.  The rest of the family recovered.

---

The  FLGS (mostly MtG) we liked most closed this weekend.  Other things besides the COVID downturn contributed, but that was a big part.  Took my son (masked) to get a few final products. I had restarted MtG there in 2014 after a 16 year break, and was introduced to the Ascension boardgame (and several others) .  Before the pandemic me and my son would play those and Cribbage there.  Lots of good friends made of a few decades different ages.

---

The rotation of colleagues and students getting it at the University continues.  Masking still required in the University building, but not in the K12 schools, and masking is way down everywhere else.  Omicron apparently appears inevitable to most, and trying not to flood the hospitals isn't getting much play as a reason for precautions.

---

12 yo has times once in a while of being pretty worried about it.  We explain the risks to him (small) and he's glad he can get his booster next month.  He's one of the few masking at his school, but hasn't been masking at karate (spaced out, high ceiling).

---

The two online 5e games I'm running continue.  Might not have considered it without COVID.  Works great for my 12yo and friends, and allowed me to meet several out of state people for the other.


----------



## CapnZapp

Cadence said:


> A friend's father passed from it last night. The family had decided not to get vaccinated in spite of various medical conditions and they all caught it just before Christmas. The rest of the family recovered.



Assuming your friend was vaccinated, my condolences.

Must be awful to see people you actually know throw away their lives. As opposed to random strangers on the internet, I mean.

Having someone I actually cared about refuse to vaccinate would have been a nightmare.

More and more experts say that if you're boosted (three shots) there is no longer a need for concern, thanks to Omikron. Huge relief!


----------



## CleverNickName

CapnZapp said:


> Having someone I actually cared about refuse to vaccinate would have been a nightmare.



Yeah, it's not awesome.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Been watching reports from the truck convoy anti-vax protest up in Ottawa.  Even if they have more fans than I’d hope they would, I sincerely pray some of their actions will erode that support.

The upside down Canadian flag with added swastikas was bad.  The protesters parking, dancing, and hanging their banners on parts of the memorial for unknown soldiers was worse.

But the reports of them threatening restauranteurs with vandalism if they weren’t fed free food and harassing homeless shelters for the same is so incredibly, deeply reprehensible.


----------



## J.Quondam

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Been watching reports from the truck convoy anti-vax protest up in Ottawa.  Even if they have more fans than I’d hope they would, I sincerely pray some of their actions will erode that support.
> 
> The upside down Canadian flag with added swastikas was bad.  The protesters parking, dancing, and hanging their banners on parts of the memorial for unknown soldiers was worse.
> 
> But the reports of them threatening restauranteurs with vandalism if they weren’t fed free food and harassing homeless shelters for the same is so incredibly, deeply reprehensible.



The overlap of covid antivaxxery with particular ideologies is no coincidence.


----------



## Cadence

CapnZapp said:


> Assuming your friend was vaccinated,




Nope.  The family "researched it" and decided not to.  :-/     We weren't enough to out weigh all of the <expletives> they worked with and the like. They masked and distanced at least, which doesn't do much good over an extended period of time if your employer and co-workers don't too.  Just glad they, their mom, and pre-teen all recovered fine.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Been watching reports from the truck convoy anti-vax protest up in Ottawa.  Even if they have more fans than I’d hope they would, I sincerely pray some of their actions will erode that support.
> 
> The upside down Canadian flag with added swastikas was bad.  The protesters parking, dancing, and hanging their banners on parts of the memorial for unknown soldiers was worse.
> 
> But the reports of them threatening restauranteurs with vandalism if they weren’t fed free food and harassing homeless shelters for the same is so incredibly, deeply reprehensible.



The supposed trucker protest was subsumed by others, who for reasons of the posting rules I cannot go into details about. They parked their vehicles on the steps of the cenotaph. The hung their banners from it and danced on it. They put their banners and flags on the memorial to  Terry Fox - Wikipedia . They drove around downtown Ottawa with Confederate Flags on their vehicles (for said previous reasons I cannot post more about that).

I am nauseous at at many of my acquaintances are in support of this thing, It's notable that those in support are almost exclusively from more rural areas of Ontario.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> A friend's father passed from it last night. The family had decided not to get vaccinated in spite of various medical conditions and they all caught it just before Christmas.  The rest of the family recovered.
> 
> ---
> 
> The  FLGS (mostly MtG) we liked most closed this weekend.  Other things besides the COVID downturn contributed, but that was a big part.  Took my son (masked) to get a few final products. I had restarted MtG there in 2014 after a 16 year break, and was introduced to the Ascension boardgame (and several others) .  Before the pandemic me and my son would play those and Cribbage there.  Lots of good friends made of a few decades different ages.
> 
> ---
> 
> The rotation of colleagues and students getting it at the University continues.  Masking still required in the University building, but not in the K12 schools, and masking is way down everywhere else.  Omicron apparently appears inevitable to most, and trying not to flood the hospitals isn't getting much play as a reason for precautions.
> 
> ---
> 
> 12 yo has times once in a while of being pretty worried about it.  We explain the risks to him (small) and he's glad he can get his booster next month.  He's one of the few masking at his school, but hasn't been masking at karate (spaced out, high ceiling).
> 
> ---
> 
> The two online 5e games I'm running continue.  Might not have considered it without COVID.  Works great for my 12yo and friends, and allowed me to meet several out of state people for the other.




 Not sure ours will make it. 

 Considering quiting D&D no point buying books to gather dust.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> The supposed trucker protest was subsumed by others, who for reasons of the posting rules I cannot go into details about. They parked their vehicles on the steps of the cenotaph. The hung their banners from it and danced on it. They put their banners and flags on the memorial to  Terry Fox - Wikipedia . They drove around downtown Ottawa with Confederate Flags on their vehicles (for said previous reasons I cannot post more about that).
> 
> I am nauseous at at many of my acquaintances are in support of this thing, It's notable that those in support are almost exclusively from more rural areas of Ontario.




 Similar things here in NZ. You see various American flags eg the don tread on me snake and various others jump on board. 

 Kinda funny when they copy and paste American stuff eg the constitution on placards etc. 

 Been kinda quiet lately think one of the main poo stirrers is a guest of her Majesty atm for breaking bail conditions multiple times.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cleaning up and found this. 



 Post vaccine advice. They've tried to idiot proof it as much as they can. World's full of idiots though so go figure. 

 My cats vaccinated. 



 Not versus Covid though. She didn't get much choice either.


----------



## Imaculata

Got my cat vaccinated as well over the weekend. Got to take good care of your pet.


----------



## Aeson

As a Southern American I apologize for the stupidity we export. ☹ I've seen Confederate flags showing up in the strangest places. I'm ashamed and embarrassed.


----------



## Zardnaar

Aeson said:


> As a Southern American I apologize for the stupidity we export. ☹ I've seen Confederate flags showing up in the strangest places. I'm ashamed and embarrassed.




Saw one flying off a flagpole in the 90"s half hour north of here.

 Doesn't carry the same baggage here, it's not a bad looking flag from that PoV. 

 Don't tread on me and quoting the American constitution I find funny.


----------



## Aeson

What's strange is, the flag was actually the battle flag for the army of the state of Virginia. The actual Confederate flag is 




My state Georgia has adopted it as their flag. 
The one most people know was adopted later in the civil war as the national flag. Our country puts way too much importance into flags. 

You're right, it's a nice looking flag. It became a symbol of hate. It's now, not only that, but a symbol of ignorance. Ignorance spreads like cancer. Sadly, so does its flag.


----------



## Zardnaar

Aeson said:


> What's strange is, the flag was actually the battle flag for the army of the state of Virginia. The actual Confederate flag is
> View attachment 150989
> My state Georgia has adopted it as their flag.
> The one most people know was adopted later in the civil war as the national flag. Our country puts way too much importance into flags.
> 
> You're right, it's a nice looking flag. It became a symbol of hate. It's now, not only that, but a symbol of ignorance. Ignorance spreads like cancer. Sadly, so does its flag.




Better looking than our (crap) flag. I think it's visuals is why it's more popular than the actual CSA flag.


----------



## Aeson

To some; The American Constitution is holy writ. Unerring and unchangeable. I'm seeing Don't tread on me flags and stickers everywhere these days. Its popularity has grown. 

Resistance to vaccine and nationalism are melding into the same. It's their patriotic duty to resist.


----------



## Zardnaar

Aeson said:


> To some; The American Constitution is holy writ. Unerring and unchangeable. I'm seeing Don't tread on me flags and stickers everywhere these days. Its popularity has grown.
> 
> Resistance to vaccine and nationalism are melding into the same. It's their patriotic duty to resist.




Not American though. We don't have an official constitution either. Power Word internet silence spell on a continental scale would be great.


----------



## Umbran

Aeson said:


> Resistance to vaccine and nationalism are melding into the same. It's their patriotic duty to resist.








I've heard of dying for one's country, but this is ridiculous  Data above from the CDC, graph itself from the NYT.


----------



## Mallus

Out of curiosity, what are people's risk tolerances like these days?

Since Omicron we're back to no indoor dining, N95 masks, 1 weekly shopping trip to groceries. I go to my office 1-2 days/week, my wife to gym 3 days/week (both require full vaccination). We're both boosted, in our 50s, with no other major risk factors.

I'd probably be a bit less cautious if it weren't for my oldest friend winding up in the hospital for 6 days with Omicron (though he had more risk factors than me).


----------



## Ryujin

Mallus said:


> Out of curiosity, what are people's risk tolerances like these days?
> 
> Since Omicron we're back to no indoor dining, N95 masks, 1 weekly shopping trip to groceries. I go to my office 1-2 days/week, my wife to gym 3 days/week (both require full vaccination). We're both boosted, in our 50s, with no other major risk factors.
> 
> I'd probably be a bit less cautious if it weren't for my oldest friend winding up in the hospital for 6 days with Omicron (though he a more risk factors than me).



I typically go out for groceries at 7:00am on Saturdays, to minimize exposure. Maybe 30 cars in the lot at a big local Wally World at that time so the biggest issue, as I've stated previously, is people being oblivious to the directional arrows for the aisles.

I'm going to work on-site perhaps once a week. I'm there from 5:30am to somewhere around noon, again to minimize contact with others. This will be more problematic when school goes back to on-site, which is currently scheduled for tomorrow. I'll still be largely working off campus.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Mallus said:


> Out of curiosity, what are people's risk tolerances like these days?




For the last three weeks I've been doing the curbside pickup for groceries, and any exterior food has been delivery or drive through.  I'll be going back to the store this weekend as we now have KN95's and the local hospitalization rate has dropped pretty dramatically.  My wife's skipped her last few in-office days.  Only thing we did the last couple weeks was a couple already scheduled (and paid for) dog training sessions.


----------



## Umbran

Mallus said:


> Out of curiosity, what are people's risk tolerances like these days?




My wife and I are both vaccinated and boosted.  Since the CDC announced that fabric masks weren't doing it for Omicron, we have switched to KN95s, and have a small tock of at-home antigen tests at hand.  I do a major grocery run every two weeks, and only occasionally have to do supplemental shopping.  We don't go to major public events - like concerts or movies.  I have not eaten indoors in a restaurant since March 2020.  I think I have eaten outdoors at a restaurant... twice in that span?  And those were in the very low case-rate times in summers.

My entire company is working from home.  I have been in the work office twice since March 2020 - once to remove my own stuff, once to do my part clearing out company stuff as we'd decided to sublet out the space since we weren't using it.  My wife's work means she has to see pet owners on a regular basis, but that's one or two people at a time, and she has a set of guidelines for those contacts that so far seemed to have kept her safe (_knock on wood_) - I am sure this is assisted by our relatively high vaccination rates, and how her work tends to select for clients who have working "care and empathy" circuits in their heads.


----------



## Janx

hadn't heard cloth masks weren't as good for omacron, but that's all I got. I figure it's still a better sneeze guard than nothing. (as always masks were better for ougoing than incoming).

We've dodged covid thus far, but it's hit people in our bubble (that we haven't seen for weeks+ before infection due to schedules). They got it from classmate infecting their kid. So schools and kids are vectors despite what the "send the kids back to school" crowd thinks.

I still end up at the store or ToGo for food every day or so. But always masked.

Not the tightest ship, but still better than the maskless, fraternizing masses are doing by far.


----------



## Umbran

Janx said:


> hadn't heard cloth masks weren't as good for omacron, but that's all I got




Then you use what you have, of course.

The basic issue is that Omicron out produces all previous variants by a large margin.  So, a mask that used to block enough, now no longer blocks enough.  In addition, cloth masks generally don't protect _you_ very much, but a KN95 or an N95 do protect you somewhat..


----------



## Jacob Lewis

Janx said:


> hadn't heard cloth masks weren't as good for omacron, but that's all I got. I figure it's still a better sneeze guard than nothing. (as always masks were better for ougoing than incoming).



The fabric used in N95 masks are electrostatic (i.e. magnetic). They can pull and hold particles in the air and prevent them from getting into you. But that is also why you can't wash them or must dispose them after using it a few times. The thing to watch for is counterfeits, especially in the KN95 variety. This website has some solid information and tips to obtain the right ones if you need it: Project N95.

Updated.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Jacob Lewis said:


> The fabric used in N95 masks are magnetic. They can pull and hold particles in the air and prevent them from getting into you. But that is also why you can't wash them or must dispose them after using it a few times. The thing to watch for is counterfeits, especially in the KN95 variety. This website has some solid information and tips to obtain the right ones if you need it: Project N95.




That's why I didn't have any for so long; all the ones I looked at seemed suspect.


----------



## Umbran

Jacob Lewis said:


> The Omicron variant is much smaller and able to travel by air, whereas previous variants were using moisture to travel.




Please provide a citation from a respected source for that assertion.



Jacob Lewis said:


> The fabric used in N95 masks are magnetic.




Technically, they carry an electrostatic charge.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mallus said:


> Out of curiosity, what are people's risk tolerances like these days?
> 
> Since Omicron we're back to no indoor dining, N95 masks, 1 weekly shopping trip to groceries. I go to my office 1-2 days/week, my wife to gym 3 days/week (both require full vaccination). We're both boosted, in our 50s, with no other major risk factors.
> 
> I'd probably be a bit less cautious if it weren't for my oldest friend winding up in the hospital for 6 days with Omicron (though he had more risk factors than me).




Still waiting for delta to arrive locally, omicron might beat it. 

 We don't go to large public events (they've all been cancelled anyway),  more insular in social circles (close family and friends),  and more exercise and outdoor activities. 

 Working way up to go tramping/hiking.  Been doing local walks outdoors and visiting ecosanctuary. 

 Been dining out more but that's a use it or lose it type scenario will likely scale that back once omicron arrives.

 Rules generally get followed where we go so we'll avoid certain places. Generally shop for essentials early morning at quiet times.


----------



## Jacob Lewis

Umbran said:


> Please provide a citation from a respected source for that assertion.



Fair. I'll retract my post until I can locate the source, but my preliminary search makes me think that information might be old now. Sorry about that.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

I am happy to report that I have recovered from my battle with covid and can get back to running my comic and game store. One of my top employees didn't catch it was able to do all the heavy lifting while I was out. The employee that gave it to me is still out, but she's double-vaxxed so she should be okay. I missed getting my booster because my appointment was right in the middle of it (and so did my wife, in case she was a carrier, though she and our two teenagers never came down with anything, which is good.)

I really feel for all the shops of my type (and any other small business) that are being killed by this. I spent 27 of the 28 years I've been in business worrying about tomorrow, but the pandemic has made me realize that I built a strong foundation. My business will ride this out for sure, I have no doubt.


----------



## J.Quondam

Welp, looks like I've finally caught some sort of chest bug, after avoiding illness of any sort since well before the pandemic began. It was inevitable, I suppose, given the degree of anti-science idiocy in these parts, including some family.
Yay.


----------



## J.Quondam

FitzTheRuke said:


> I am happy to report that I have recovered from my battle with covid and can get back to running my comic and game store. One of my top employees didn't catch it was able to do all the heavy lifting while I was out. The employee that gave it to me is still out, but she's double-vaxxed so she should be okay. I missed getting my booster because my appointment was right in the middle of it (and so did my wife, in case she was a carrier, though she and our two teenagers never came down with anything, which is good.)
> 
> I really feel for all the shops of my type (and any other small business) that are being killed by this. I spent 27 of the 28 years I've been in business worrying about tomorrow, but the pandemic has made me realize that I built a strong foundation. My business will ride this out for sure, I have no doubt.



That's great news! Glad to hear you're riding it out okay, on all fronts.


----------



## Umbran

Jacob Lewis said:


> Fair. I'll retract my post until I can locate the source, but my preliminary search makes me think that information might be old now. Sorry about that.




So, I want to give Jacob here a ton of credit for this response!


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> I am happy to report that I have recovered from my battle with covid and can get back to running my comic and game store.




Woohoo!  Happy for you, dude!


----------



## Ryujin

Here's something else that happened during the "trucker protest" in Ottawa. A homeless shelter and soup kitchen was badgered into giving meals to protesters, to the detriment of the people they exist to help. I feel that this was likely some of the people I eluded to in an earlier post, rather than the actual trucker protesters, because this whole situation is being steered by others. I need to check out the shelter's website and make a donation, I think.









						Ottawa homeless shelter staff harassed by convoy protesters demanding food
					

An Ottawa homeless shelter says protesters from the 'Freedom Convoy' harassed some staff and volunteers Saturday, demanding food from its soup kitchen.



					ottawa.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Umbran

So, a couple of weeks ago the US government opened a program in which every mailing address could get four free at-home covid tests.  I wanted to report that mine arrived today - same brand as I had purchased at Walgreens.  So folks can know the program actually works...


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> So, a couple of weeks ago the US government opened a program in which every mailing address could get four free at-home covid tests.  I wanted to report that mine arrived today - same brand as I had purchased at Walgreens.  So folks can know the program actually works...




America has done some things better. 

 Lots of people here made their own masks but they're not good vs omicron. They want people to use KN95 but are bit supplying them. And they're quite pricey here. 

 USA did helicopter money, here it was wage subsidiaries but most if it has ended up in corporate bank accounts. They could have given everyone 10k instead. 

 They more or less did a government guarantee on housing prices and the had 20-30% rise I'm house prices two years in a row. 

 So might be looking at a localized 2008 and inflation and housing costs are sucking money out of the real economy and interest rates are due to rise. 









						Border delays and a crash in house prices are the main risks facing the NZ economy - OECD report
					

The Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development's survey of the country says the economy is starting to overheat having been supported by government support measures to counter the pandemic.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 In other news average house prices hit 1 million dollars. 

 After being told their policies would do exactly that and cause inflation. 

 Top 20% are creaming it, everyone else is getting reamed.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> America has done some things better.




I was pointing this out as a way for folks to support their personal safety.  Larger economic discussion you'd really need to take to a different website.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> I was pointing this out as a way for folks to support their personal safety.  Larger economic discussion you'd really need to take to a different website.




Covid bailout response is fair game though da/nyet?


----------



## Aeson

J.Quondam said:


> Welp, looks like I've finally caught some sort of chest bug, after avoiding illness of any sort since well before the pandemic began. It was inevitable, I suppose, given the degree of anti-science idiocy in these parts, including some family.
> Yay.



If the bug takes you out, will it get 1/8 or full XP?



I'm gonna hate myself for this joke if it happens.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mallus said:


> Out of curiosity, what are people's risk tolerances like these days?



Vaxxed & boosted.  I wear commercial, multi-layer cloth masks so my folks can have their pick of the KN95 & N95 masks we have.

I still intend to make some of my own cloth masks based on a design that uses an insert that (unofficially) tested as being close to KN95 mask in filtration.  (Note: that “intent” has lasted several months now...)

We go to church, but attend our church’s 5PM Sat. service which has the smallest attendance and njo mass on its heels, so there’s no crowd of people trying to get in as we leave.  We also place ourselves in a portion of the church virtua devoid of other attendees.  Typically, the only people within 25’ of us are wayward kids, ushers, and event, the Eucharistic ministers.

I do eat in restaurants, but tend to choose off-peak hours.  Generally speaking, I may have only dined in fewer than a handful of restaurantsover 50% capacity in the past 18 months.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> So, a couple of weeks ago the US government opened a program in which every mailing address could get four free at-home covid tests.  I wanted to report that mine arrived today - same brand as I had purchased at Walgreens.  So folks can know the program actually works...




Yeah, I been waiting on mine.  So far no go, but I know there's some priority issues, though.


----------



## Cadence

Mallus said:


> Out of curiosity, what are people's risk tolerances like these days?




Wife and I are double vaxxed and boosted. 12yo is double vaxxed with boost a month away.

Masking around others except for rare family gatherings (four a year, which we've approached trepidatiously) and for my son at karate or his lunch at school.  He just went back to in person for the first time in nearly two years with the change of the semesters.

Eating out if the restaurant is almost empty.  Shopping pretty like usual.  Work at the university is all masked while in class or the hallways, but it's making it's rounds.

Optimistic that in a few weeks we'll be much closer to normal as far as other things.

Once littler kids can get the shot it will be hard to not have my only concern about it being to not overcrowd the hospitals, and to heck with those who choose not to take precautions if they want to catch it (but that forgets those who can't for various reasons or for whom they don't work well).


----------



## GreyLord

I have stopped attending any religious services for the past month and a half.

I try to go to the store either very early in the morning, or very late at night when there are not huge crowds.

Other than that, I have not gone out much.


----------



## Cadence

First positive test in the household, other two took tests this AM (including one who tested negative yesterday).


----------



## Jacob Lewis

Mallus said:


> Out of curiosity, what are people's risk tolerances like these days?
> 
> Since Omicron we're back to no indoor dining, N95 masks, 1 weekly shopping trip to groceries. I go to my office 1-2 days/week, my wife to gym 3 days/week (both require full vaccination). We're both boosted, in our 50s, with no other major risk factors.
> 
> I'd probably be a bit less cautious if it weren't for my oldest friend winding up in the hospital for 6 days with Omicron (though he had more risk factors than me).



Back in February 2020, I had finished my last job assignment just as the pandemic was about to kick in. As we learned more about it, my wife and I decided that it was too big a risk to me since I have a history of respiratory problems that have put me in the hospital on more than one occasion. But we have been _extremely _fortunate to be in a position where she works for a small company that has opted to work from home since this started, and that our finances are easily manageable with a smaller income. So we decided that there was no need for me to go back into the workforce while the world continues to spiral out of control. 

So we basically locked ourselves away at home and didn't see anyone for over a year, not even family. We maintained control of our environment. We purchased everything online and had it delivered to our patio, disinfecting anything they touched after they left. When the vaccines finally rolled out, we both got our 2-shots, and eventually got the booster, too.

Last summer, we began heading out more. Always masked, always mindful of our surroundings and other people. We started doing our own shopping again, and I began checking out my favorite non-essential stores (i.e. games and book stores). I desperately wanted to get back to face-to-face gaming, but I didn't feel that the stores were enforcing health measures enough. So I advertised on the FB page for responsible people who had the sense and enough care to create a safer environment. I got a small group that was interested in trying Starfinder and was able to host in their home. We had a good run for a few weeks before things fell apart (including my computer which lost a TON of work that I had done during the pandemic--it was brutal). And then Omicron broke out.

So my wife and I are back to isolation. No visitors. No unnecessary trips. Everything delivered or curbside pick up. And we upgraded our masks to N95. (I think we bought like 400+ but we also gave some to our family and friends.) I wish things were different, that we didn't need to keep living like this. But we can, and we will. We intend to be here after all of this.


----------



## briggart

Mallus said:


> Out of curiosity, what are people's risk tolerances like these days?
> 
> Since Omicron we're back to no indoor dining, N95 masks, 1 weekly shopping trip to groceries. I go to my office 1-2 days/week, my wife to gym 3 days/week (both require full vaccination). We're both boosted, in our 50s, with no other major risk factors.
> 
> I'd probably be a bit less cautious if it weren't for my oldest friend winding up in the hospital for 6 days with Omicron (though he had more risk factors than me).



Over the last 6 months, went to the office at least 1-2/week for in-person teaching. I meet regularly with my parents, aunt and cousins (we all live in the same building, we're basically one extended household). Occasionally we have visitors from outside family. I went out for dinner/drinks once, sometime twice a month. Less so now, since the post Christmas surge, but since mid January drinking/eating out is allowed only with proof of at least double vaccination. Watched Dune in theaters. We are all 3+ vaxed, same for colleagues, friends and family we hang out with. FFP2 masks when we go out of the house. 

Starting today, entrance to most places of business (with obvious exceptions like food stores, pharmacies,...) is restricted to people with at least the basic green pass (negative test in the previous 48 hours). People over 50 have 15 days to start their vaccination process or they will be placed on unpaid leave.


----------



## Maxperson

FitzTheRuke said:


> I am happy to report that I have recovered from my battle with covid and can get back to running my comic and game store. One of my top employees didn't catch it was able to do all the heavy lifting while I was out. The employee that gave it to me is still out, but she's double-vaxxed so she should be okay. I missed getting my booster because my appointment was right in the middle of it (and so did my wife, in case she was a carrier, though she and our two teenagers never came down with anything, which is good.)
> 
> I really feel for all the shops of my type (and any other small business) that are being killed by this. I spent 27 of the 28 years I've been in business worrying about tomorrow, but the pandemic has made me realize that I built a strong foundation. My business will ride this out for sure, I have no doubt.



I'm very happy that you have recovered, and also that you were fortunate enough to have someone capable of picking up the slack at your store. At least you didn't have to worry about the fate of your store while also fighting the Covid.


----------



## Mirtek

Mallus said:


> Out of curiosity, what are people's risk tolerances like these days?



No real changes honestly. Live with whatever is required in public and continue to do what we please in private (even if beyond official covid rules and regulations).

Office 5 days a week. Shopping 3-4 times a week (have so much stores along the way to work, I've just never been a "one big haul once a week" guy). Eating out whenever I feel like (indoor due to bad winter weather) and have been to the cinema twice (due to only 2 movies being interesting enough). Thus saturday one of my close friends turns 40 and I will go in person to congratulate. Due to public restrictions it won't be a fancy party at a rented location, but I expect 15-20 people at his home.

I am one of the few people going to office every day. I need 8-10 minutes from home to office and I found that if I have to work, I'd rather do it in the office than at home. I just don't want to make proper room and plugging the work laptop in on my gaming corner just didn't feel right to me.

Today Denmark has officially ended all covid related restrictions, despite having an incidence of 5.2k. No masks, no tests, no distancing or contact tracking or capacity limits for events whatsoever. So I am obviously far from being the boldest, that goes to the Danish.

Having watched the full stadions during the playoffs and the clips from fans celebrating scores in tightly packed spportbars, there aren't many restrictions in the US either, are there?



Umbran said:


> Since the CDC announced that fabric masks weren't doing it for Omicron, we have switched to KN95s,



The German RKI announced the same for Delta over a year ago. Since then community masks are no longer allowed when masking is required. Only medical, KN95 or FFP2.

In one sweep pulled the rug under those business who converted to produce community masks to at least have some business during the pandemic. Well, the end of that business would have happened sooner or later anyway.


----------



## Aeson

A friend's views have changed about covid as times has passed. Last night she said;

We shouldn't use masks. We should get sick, and it'll go away. When we were kids, if little Johnny down the street was sick, we would all go to his house and we'd all get sick, and it's over.

I'm glad I didn't know her when we were kids. She's not the first I've heard this stuff from, though. It all seems contrary to what makes better sense. Avoidance, starve the virus of a host, and kill it. This is what is best in life.


----------



## Mirtek

Aeson said:


> Avoidance, starve the virus of a host, and kill it. This is what is best in life.



In the history of modern medicine we managed to kill a grand total of 2 1 viruses. And not for lack of trying vs. others. Covid may become the third second, but the chances are very very slim.

_Edit:_ and the "killed" virus is actually still preserved in two high security labs (officially only 2, who knows who else has kept some)


----------



## CleverNickName

Aeson said:


> I'm glad I didn't know her when we were kids. She's not the first I've heard this stuff from, though. It all seems contrary to what makes better sense. Avoidance, starve the virus of a host, and kill it. This is what is best in life.



The argument against this that I keep hearing is that it will ruin the economy.

Of course, so will the loss of countless lives and workhours due to illness.  But good luck explaining that.


----------



## Ryujin

Aeson said:


> A friend's views have changed about covid as times has passed. Last night she said;
> 
> We shouldn't use masks. We should get sick, and it'll go away. When we were kids, if little Johnny down the street was sick, we would all go to his house and we'd all get sick, and it's over.
> 
> I'm glad I didn't know her when we were kids. She's not the first I've heard this stuff from, though. It all seems contrary to what makes better sense. Avoidance, starve the virus of a host, and kill it. This is what is best in life.



People who think this way don't seem to understand the idea of antigenic drift. There's a reason why the flu vaccine from this year likely won't work on the one next year. Covid has also shown a propensity for this.


----------



## J.Quondam

I've run into a handful of "covid party" advocates, too. Strangely, not one has ever signed on to the clearly superior idea of a big _multi-viral_ shindig not just for pesky covid, but also hepatitis, HIV, yellow fever, polio, and ebola. Just knock out _all_ the viruses _all_ at one time, pot luck style!
It would be a blast.


----------



## Aeson

CleverNickName said:


> The argument against this that I keep hearing is that it will ruin the economy.
> 
> Of course, so will the loss of countless lives and workhours due to illness.  But good luck explaining that.



Especially, when they believe the other way will ruin the economy. It's hard to have that conversation. The handling of the pandemic was one of the reasons she gave for her intention to move to Florida. 

I'm trying to avoid being too political.


----------



## Zardnaar

More than one way to ruin an economy. Covids one of those shock factors.  

 Government here did about as well as anyone vs Covid but they made some screw ups along the way. 

 Less than most. Idealism hits reality though or damned if you do, damned if you don't.


----------



## Umbran

Aeson said:


> We shouldn't use masks. We should get sick, and it'll go away. When we were kids, if little Johnny down the street was sick, we would all go to his house and we'd all get sick, and it's over.




Except, if we all get sick in a short timeframe, the healthcare system gets overloaded, and lots of people die - and not just people with covid.  People who need treatment for other things can't get a hospital bed and die, too.  



Aeson said:


> Avoidance, starve the virus of a host, and kill it.




"Kill it," may have been an option two years ago.  It doesn't seem to be an option any more.  It looks like covid will become endemic, but hopefully we build up enough people with resistance to severe disease through vaccination and exposure that it isn't a huge deal any more.


----------



## Zardnaar

People think Covid can be wiped out lol. 
4 sale a bridge in San Francisco. 

 Anyway they cut the time to get a booser from 6 months to 4 to 3 from Friday.

 Slight screw up with the booking system.   I got my booster at a walk and n wife booked here's on the 4 month day exactly.  At first they didn't update the software from 6 months. 

 Turns out the 4 months thing was 4 months and 1 day so she had to renook via phone along with her sister. Turns out the software couldn't let you rebook either. 

 Bureaucracy same the world over.


----------



## Ryujin

J.Quondam said:


> I've run into a handful of "covid party" advocates, too. Strangely, not one has ever signed on to the clearly superior idea of a big _multi-viral_ shindig not just for pesky covid, but also hepatitis, HIV, yellow fever, polio, and ebola. Just knock out _all_ the viruses _all_ at one time, pot luck style!
> It would be a blast.



I was one of the "Chicken Pox party" kids. Now I've had Shingles. Thanks Fam.


----------



## Cadence

Update: The other two of us got tested, one positive and based on how they felt yesterday a presumed false negative.  Hoping it doesn't worsen from where it's at for all three of us (go-go boosted vax save mods for the recovery roll?).


----------



## J.Quondam

Ryujin said:


> I was one of the "Chicken Pox party" kids. Now I've had Shingles. Thanks Fam.



I wasn't a chicken pox party goer. But it rippped through my whole school and their families over about a month back when I was 6 years old or so.  I 
Yeah, I really wish chicken pox vaccine had been available when I was a kid.


----------



## Ryujin

J.Quondam said:


> I wasn't a chicken pox party goer. But it rippped through my whole school and their families over about a month back when I was 6 years old or so.  I got shingles in September. Rash came and went as expected, but it still feels like I got kicked in the ribs and gives me shooting pains every day. All that misery and discomfort, _still_ affecting a person half a century later after the fact. Nasty virus.
> 
> Yeah, I really wish chicken pox vaccine had been available when I was a kid.



I got very lucky in some ways, with my outbreak. Very unlucky in others. Despite making my leg look like raw hamburger, it really didn't hurt more than a sun burn. OTOH it was misdiagnosed by multiple doctors as an infection, so I got stuck on (completely useless) antibiotics for weeks. When the oral antibiotics didn't work, they stuck a CAD Pump on me for 2 weeks.

The upshot of this is that you don't mess with a disease, when you don't know what the long term effects will be. And we do now know that Covid can have some lasting effects.


----------



## Imaculata

I noticed lately that I just feel very angry. Whenever I see people with their chin diapers, or not masked up at all, I just want to scream at them. 

And I don't like feeling that way.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dumb question what's shingles? 

 Got chicken pox as a kid. Have a matching scar on my shoulder with my wife from it.


----------



## J.Quondam

Zardnaar said:


> Dumb question what's shingles?
> 
> Got chicken pox as a kid. Have a matching scar on my shoulder with my wife from it.



Shingles is when chicken pox virus re-emerges later in life. I think the virus stays latent in the nerves or something, and can pop up again in some older people. It behaves differently than childhood chicken pox, usually localized, really painful.









						Shingles - Symptoms and causes
					






					www.mayoclinic.org


----------



## Cadence

J.Quondam said:


> Shingles is when chicken pox virus re-emerges later in life. I think the virus stays latent in the nerves or something, and can pop up again in some older people. It behaves differently than childhood chicken pox, usually localized, really painful.




Vaccine at age 50.


----------



## Zardnaar

J.Quondam said:


> Shingles is when chicken pox virus re-emerges later in life. I think the virus stays latent in the nerves or something, and can pop up again in some older people. It behaves differently than childhood chicken pox, usually localized, really painful.




 Ah rgr was just wondering if it's one of those Americanisms names or I've just never seen it.


----------



## Baron Opal II

Mallus said:


> Out of curiosity, what are people's risk tolerances like these days?



Relatively high, given circumstances.

Everyone in the household is vacc x2 + boost, save the exchange student who (at the time) was vacc x2. Predictably, he brought Covid home from school or athletics. He passed it to the Baroness, and the two of them had a week in bed. Son and I didn't catch it, which I was a little surprised by, but I went into "hospital mode" as far as interactions went, including otherwise pathologic handwashing. We have cloth masks, but my wife is a pro seamstress and they haven't failed us yet.

Recently we started eating out on occasion, that hasn't felt dangerous as previous. The places we do eat at have sufficient distance between seated parties. We wear masks otherwise within buildings and usually not while outside.

We are gaming face to face. There are two other households, one is a friend of my son's who is vacc x2 + boost. I think his parents are, too, but they got sick with Covid a little while ago. He did not. After the prescribed time he rejoined us. The other family is a family of four + exchange student. The ES caught Covid; his symptoms were pretty mild. All of them are vacc x2 + boost, except, again, the ES who was vacc x2. The mom's a nurse, and no one else in their household became ill.

I've been pretty concerned that I would end up bringing it home from the hospital. So far, however, I've avoided that.

But, my hands... my poor hands...


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Ah rgr was just wondering if it's one of those Americanisms names or I've just never seen it.



It's on the NZ ministry of health by that name.  Looks like y'all get the shot recommended later than us Gough age wise.


----------



## Baron Opal II

Ryujin said:


> I was one of the "Chicken Pox party" kids. Now I've had Shingles. Thanks Fam.



Me too. It one of my childhood memories that remains vibrant since it was so odd at the time. I distinctly remember four moms looking down at the bunch of us with a ... grim approval?

Still, for that particular disease it wasn't an unreasonable action given a lack of vaccine.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> It's on the NZ ministry of health by that name.  Looks like y'all get the shot recommended later than us Gough age wise.




 Just something I'm not familiar with.


----------



## Hussar

Imaculata said:


> I noticed lately that I just feel very angry. Whenever I see people with their chin diapers, or not masked up at all, I just want to scream at them.
> 
> And I don't like feeling that way.



Totally get that.  And, agreed, I really, really hate feeling this way.  

Watching the events from Ottawa makes me just want to explode.  

Being frustrated, bored, and whatnot just makes me pissed off all the time.  And it really, really sucks.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Just something I'm not familiar with.



Don't feel bad.  I had never heard of it either until fairly recently when one of my players said he had it.  And that was only a couple of years ago.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Don't feel bad.  I had never heard of it either until fairly recently when one of my players said he had it.  And that was only a couple of years ago.




 Pretty much dodged all the bugs as an adult. Haven't even had the flu. 

 Haven't had a cold since 2019. 

My theory is my 3 charisma is offensive to germs as well.


----------



## CapnZapp

Mallus said:


> Out of curiosity, what are people's risk tolerances like these days?
> 
> Since Omicron we're back to no indoor dining, N95 masks, 1 weekly shopping trip to groceries. I go to my office 1-2 days/week, my wife to gym 3 days/week (both require full vaccination). We're both boosted, in our 50s, with no other major risk factors.
> 
> I'd probably be a bit less cautious if it weren't for my oldest friend winding up in the hospital for 6 days with Omicron (though he had more risk factors than me).



Where I live the authorities (governments, medical expertise, and so on) all seem to agree that, assuming you have had a booster (three shots) Omikron poses no danger.

And all restrictions are about to go away.

Poof - as if the pandemic was just a bad dream...

Yes, this happens at the same time WHO still calls Omikron a deadly threat. (Which of course is because not all countries have a majority of the population not just vaccinated but also boosted)


----------



## CapnZapp

Zardnaar said:


> America has done some things better.



America appears to have done a piss-poor job of preventing people from dying from not only COVID in general but Omikron in particular.

As far as I can see your double whammy of poor vaccination coverage and obesity overrepresentation means Omikron is needlessly lethal for you, while other countries are about to simply stop caring about Omikron entirely - to the point of completely dismantling all restrictions!


----------



## CapnZapp

Mirtek said:


> Today Denmark has officially ended all covid related restrictions, despite having an incidence of 5.2k. No masks, no tests, no distancing or contact tracking or capacity limits for events whatsoever. So I am obviously far from being the boldest, that goes to the Danish.



This.

Feels a bit unreal though, given that everybody was still in full panic mode less than a month(!) ago.

(And undoubtedly still are in many areas of the world, I'm not saying I don't see the plight of other countries)


----------



## CapnZapp

CleverNickName said:


> The argument against this that I keep hearing is that it will ruin the economy.
> 
> Of course, so will the loss of countless lives and workhours due to illness. But good luck explaining that.




Yes.

The "ruin economy" argument was naughty word from the start. Economic data from the Spanish Flu clearly showed that US cities closing down had much fewer deaths than those staying open "for the economy".

Yet, after the epidemic, the economic activity was about the same in both cases.

The conclusion is obvious, but since politics is frowned upon I'll let you draw it yourselves.

Let's just say half of the US is batshit insane, and the other half is not.


----------



## CapnZapp

Ryujin said:


> People who think this way don't seem to understand the idea of antigenic drift. There's a reason why the flu vaccine from this year likely won't work on the one next year. Covid has also shown a propensity for this.



It also ignores the basic fact it's better to get infected next year when hospitals aren't overflowing and doctors have much better treatment.

Where I mean "next year" literally for every year.


----------



## Ryujin

Baron Opal II said:


> Me too. It one of my childhood memories that remains vibrant since it was so odd at the time. I distinctly remember four moms looking down at the bunch of us with a ... grim approval?
> 
> Still, for that particular disease it wasn't an unreasonable action given a lack of vaccine.



Well avoidance was also an option, which would mean no pain in later life.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> Well avoidance was also an option, which would mean no pain in later life.




 Think people may have done it as it's worse getting it later in life. 

 How true that is idk but I remember words along the lines "at least you got it now vs later". 

 I wasn't deliberately infected just picked it up via school along with measles.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Think people may have done it as it's worse getting it later in life.
> 
> How true that is idk but I remember words along the lines "at least you got it now vs later".
> 
> I wasn't deliberately infected just picked it up via school along with measles.



Yes, it can be more serious in later life. Or you might not get it at all. For me, that possibility was taken away.


----------



## Cadence

Ryujin said:


> Yes, it can be more serious in later life. Or you might not get it at all. For me, that possibility was taken away.



Given how innocuous it was viewed in my own childhood (1970s-80s), that something like 95% of people caught it at some point, and that it was thought very serious later in life, I'm not surprised some people had parties.  

Knowing more these days about there being some hospitalization risk, there being a vaccine, and knowledge of shingles being more widespread, it feels a lot different today! (Well,.checks news on COVID, to some people).


----------



## Ryujin

Cadence said:


> Given how innocuous it was viewed in my own childhood (1970s-80s), that something like 95% of people caught it at some point, and that it was thought very serious later in life, I'm not surprised some people had parties.
> 
> Knowing more these days about there being some hospitalization risk, there being a vaccine, and knowledge of shingles being more widespread, it feels a lot different today! (Well,.checks news on COVID, to some people).



I know a lot of people my age (late 50s) who never had Chicken pox. The only exposure that I can remember, for myself, was the planned one. As such I'm made to wonder how many of that 95% you stated were similarly infected on purpose.


----------



## Hussar

Ryujin said:


> I know a lot of people my age (late 50s) who never had Chicken pox. The only exposure that I can remember, for myself, was the planned one. As such I'm made to wonder how many of that 95% you stated were similarly infected on purpose.



I don't know.  I know that I had never heard of "chicken pox parties" until I got online.  If it was done around in rural Ontario, it's news to me.  OTOH, it was pretty much one of those things that everyone goes through.  Someone managing to make it into adulthood without catching it was pretty rare, AFAIK. 

I had mine over the Christmas holidays.  Just a gift that kept on giving.


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> ... and that it was thought very serious later in life,




Way back when, my freshman roommate in college got chicken pox.  The university had to quarantine him in separate housing, He was told that to protect his vision he had to keep the room they gave him dim/dark, and shouldn't spend any significant time reading (these last to help control headache that can come with the illness).  High fever he had for a while had risk of producing sterility, and he had risk of hepatitis or encephalitis.  It wasn't awesome.


----------



## Mannahnin

Baron Opal II said:


> I've been pretty concerned that I would end up bringing it home from the hospital. So far, however, I've avoided that.
> 
> But, my hands... my poor hands...



Likewise.  Moisturizer has become an absolute essential for mine.


----------



## billd91

Ryujin said:


> I know a lot of people my age (late 50s) who never had Chicken pox. The only exposure that I can remember, for myself, was the planned one. As such I'm made to wonder how many of that 95% you stated were similarly infected on purpose.



Most people I knew got it young. I didn't get it from any kind of chicken pox party, my older sister brought it home from kindergarten and ended up sharing it with me (how generous of her). I remember having a pretty mild case. But I knew other people who hadn't gotten it until high school and college - and when they got it, it really kicked their asses.

This was, of course, quite a while before the vaccine, which didn't get approved for the US until 1995 - so the first kids really fully vaccinated as part of their lifelong immunization program are late Millennials and Gen Z. So when I look back on it, given a choice between getting your kids a mild illness early vs hoping they manage to dodge getting it for the rest of their lives, I don't blame Silent Generation or Boomer parents allowing or helping their kids get exposed to chicken pox. Moreover, since the link between the two diseases was noticed largely by kids breaking out with chicken pox after an adult broke out with shingles, I don't blame the broad, not particularly well-educated in medicine public from not really considering shingles as an older adult as a likely consequence of chicken pox parties. Sometimes, you gotta give people the benefit of the doubt - most of them were parenting the best they could based on what they knew at the time and their own experiences - many from entirely before most immunizations.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> Think people may have done it as it's worse getting it later in life.
> 
> How true that is idk but I remember words along the lines "at least you got it now vs later".
> 
> I wasn't deliberately infected just picked it up via school along with measles.




It absolutely is (for at least some values of "later"); when my wife had shingles a couple years back, she was in a panic that I'd get chicken pox since I'd never had it (which, initially neither she nor my doctor believed when I told them).

It was also surprisingly difficult finding a place locally that had the adult vaccine for it.


----------



## Baron Opal II

Ryujin said:


> Well avoidance was also an option, which would mean no pain in later life.



Well, not guaranteed. The incidence of encephalopathy and brain damage, sterility, and other unfortunate side effect of the disease are more pronounced in adulthood. It's a very contagous disease. The last time I had to talk with a patient with chicken pox, not shingles, as an adult I needed the full PPE suite. His case was ... disfiguring to boot.

As far as childhood diseases go, CP is pretty mild with no guarantee of shingles later on. Some choices are unfortunate, but you make do the best you can with the information you have at the time.

Doing a little digging, as of 2008 ~95% of the adult population has had chicken pox at some point in their life. Approximately one third of those will develop shingles. Taking the varicella vaccine can reduce the risk of developing shingles significantly, as well as avoiding chicken pox if you haven't had that to begin with.

CDC press release, May, 18 2008.


----------



## J.Quondam

billd91 said:


> Sometimes, you gotta give people the benefit of the doubt - most of them were parenting the best they could based on what they knew at the time and their own experiences - many from entirely before most immunizations.



Agreed. In the case of chicken pox, it seems like the notion of intentional infections of young kids was perfectly reasonable for the time. As I understand it, similar things were even done for small pox way back-- intentional infection with "cow pox" (?) as I recall, as sort of a stand in for what has become formal vaccination today.

The problem is that that so many people today are making incorrect assumptions that (1) that approach to immunization applies for any/all viruses; and/or (2) that "common sense, old timey" approach is superior to modern techniques. It's a very reactionary view that is driven by cynical or irresponsible media stirring up distrust of experts (of all sorts) in the last few decades.


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> I don't know.  I know that I had never heard of "chicken pox parties" until I got online.  If it was done around in rural Ontario, it's news to me.  OTOH, it was pretty much one of those things that everyone goes through.  Someone managing to make it into adulthood without catching it was pretty rare, AFAIK.
> 
> I had mine over the Christmas holidays.  Just a gift that kept on giving.



Toronto, 1968, for me.


----------



## Thomas Shey

J.Quondam said:


> Agreed. In the case of chicken pox, it seems like the notion of intentional infections of young kids was perfectly reasonable for the time. As I understand it, similar things were even done for small pox way back-- intentional infection with "cow pox" (?) as I recall, as sort of a stand in for what has become formal vaccination today.




I was shocked how late this was, but I didn't realize there was no vaccine until the 90's.



J.Quondam said:


> The problem is that that so many people today are making incorrect assumptions that (1) that approach to immunization applies for any/all viruses; and/or (2) that "common sense, old timey" approach is superior to modern techniques. It's a very reactionary view that is driven by cynical or irresponsible media stirring up distrust of experts (of all sorts) in the last few decades.




Yup.


----------



## Bedrockgames

J.Quondam said:


> Agreed. In the case of chicken pox, it seems like the notion of intentional infections of young kids was perfectly reasonable for the time. As I understand it, similar things were even done for small pox way back-- intentional infection with "cow pox" (?) as I recall, as sort of a stand in for what has become formal vaccination today.




Chicken pox is also an illness that is much worse if you get it when you are older, so the reason for our parents doing that was they wanted to prevent us having a bigger problem later in life. When I was a kid my sister gave me chicken pox on purpose because she thought it was something you could give away (that it would leave her body and infect me). But that is a whole other issue. Also chicken pox was pretty manageable. All I remember is feeling itchy.


----------



## Zardnaar

Bedrockgames said:


> Chicken pox is also an illness that is much worse if you get it when you are older, so the reason for our parents doing that was they wanted to prevent us having a bigger problem later in life. When I was a kid my sister gave me chicken pox on purpose because she thought it was something you could give away (that it would leave her body and infect me). But that is a whole other issue. Also chicken pox was pretty manageable. All I remember is feeling itchy.




 I remember itchy and scabs falling off. That was the 80's.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> I remember itchy and scabs falling off. That was the 80's.



For me it was many days of being slathered with Calamine Lotion and being so itchy that I thought I would go insane, scratching until I bled, etc..


----------



## niklinna

A bit of vaccine news from _Your Local Epidemiologist:_ Two underdog but game changing vaccines: NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) and CORBEVAX


----------



## J.Quondam

niklinna said:


> A bit of vaccine news from _Your Local Epidemiologist:_ Two underdog but game changing vaccines: NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) and CORBEVAX



That's some sorely need good news.
I've gotten the impression in the last few weeks that the Corbevax one has generated some _positive_ buzz among some factions of the antivaxxer crowd here in the US, because it's been deemed more politically correct. But whatever, if these new ones get more antivaxxers on board, that's an excellent development.
So... fingers crossed!


----------



## niklinna

J.Quondam said:


> That's some sorely need good news.
> I've gotten the impression in the last few weeks that the Corbevax one has generated some _positive_ buzz among some factions of the antivaxxer crowd here in the US, because it's been deemed more politically correct. But whatever, if these new ones get more antivaxxers on board, that's an excellent development.
> So... fingers crossed!



Aye, and also because of this: The Guardian view on vaccine justice: the developing world won’t wait | Editorial


----------



## Cadence

Son has felt just fine the last few days  (test yesterday was still positive, it's been a week since his first symptoms).  Other half and I were a couple days behind with symptoms - yesterday and this morning were my worst, I just need to not be stupid about working at home this weekend and get some sleep I think.  She's doing a bit worse, but nothing near seeing a doctor for yet (sinus congestion, headache, and drowzy). 

On the plus side, if it goes down as fast as it went up in SC, there's at least hope on the horizon.  This is the new hopspitializations per 100k.


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> Son has felt just fine the last few days  (test yesterday was still positive, it's been a week since his first symptoms).




One of the reasons why the CDC removed the requirement for a negative test result after getting covid to go back to work is that it turns out a person can test positive for _months_ after having it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

F.Y.I., things are ugly in Ottowa.  The “protesters” are engaging in all kinds of uncivil and illegal actions.  Assaults & batteries, death threats, sexual assault threats, robbery, vandalism, disturbing the peace, interference with healthcare workers, defecation on people’s porches, etc.

The police chief is apparently of the mindset that “nothing can be done.”  (IMHO, he’s either complicit or incompetent.)


----------



## GreyLord

My opinion (which could be wrong, I am always willing to listen to counter opinions):

The Police could absolutely do something about it.  It is that they CHOOSE not to do something about it.


----------



## Cadence

So, that thing in some reports about Omicron causing a ridiculous amount of night sweats in some people... Yeesh. Yeah, that happens.   :-/


----------



## Mezuka

Well, I'm certainly happy the Quebec City police learned lessons from those in Ottawa and managed to prevent protesters from establishing a permanent foothold near the province's parliament hill yesterday. One of the protester leaders, self-named 'Rambo' Gauthier, is a thug who used to intimidate people on construction sites.

I grew up in Quebec City. Don't f@ck with them because they have a huge chip on their collective shoulders. If protesters hurt the ongoing Carnival de Quebec (Winter Carnival) in any way, they won't be as patient as Ottawa residents. I've seen billard balls thrown at car windows and cars on fire during a protest years ago.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> F.Y.I., things are ugly in Ottowa.  The “protesters” are engaging in all kinds of uncivil and illegal actions.  Assaults & batteries, death threats, sexual assault threats, robbery, vandalism, disturbing the peace, interference with healthcare workers, defecation on people’s porches, etc.
> 
> The police chief is apparently of the mindset that “nothing can be done.”  (IMHO, he’s either complicit or incompetent.)



Rather ironically it seems that GoFundMe has done more to shut them down than have police, by deleting their $10M fund raiser and refusing to release the money to them.









						Trucker convoy fundraiser removed from GoFundMe
					

An online fundraiser for the trucker convoy protests has been removed from GoFundMe for violating its terms of service, the company says.



					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Mezuka

Protesters in Quebec city have left, including all the trucks. They couldn't get a foothold thanks to a well-prepared police force and city administration. They promised to come back in two weeks, in larger numbers, after the winter carnival. I don't think it will work. Restrictions are being eased weekly. In two weeks almost everything will be reopened.

The protesters had set up a funding link but it was cancelled by the owners of the site, citing they are not a non-profit organization.


----------



## Ryujin

Mezuka said:


> Protesters in Quebec city have left, including all the trucks. They couldn't get a foothold thanks to a well-prepared police force and city administration. They promised to come back in two weeks, in larger numbers, after the winter carnival. I don't think it will work. Restrictions are being eased weekly. In two weeks almost everything will be reopened.
> 
> The protesters had set up a funding link but it was cancelled by the owners of the site, citing they are not a non-profit organization.



Should be interesting for me, going in to work tomorrow morning. As far as I know they still have access to Queens Park in Toronto locked down and the east-west closures start pretty much where I have to go. I also need to go past the southern end of the mess in order to get where i need to go. Loads of laughs, at 5:30am.


----------



## Imaculata

Apparently a New Zealand truck convoy was disrupted by anti-protest trolls, who sent them scattered to different locations, and messed with their Spotify playlist, to include songs like: "Why don't you just get a job?", by the Offspring, Redneck piece of White Trash, by Rebel Son and Dumb F*** by Peaches.

XD

Full article here. It's region locked, so I included a proxy so anyone can read it.



Spoiler



Anti-COVID mandate protesters confused after trolls infiltrate Telegram, attempt to mislead convoy​An anti-COVID mandate protest has gone haywire after trolls infiltrated multiple social media channels and attempted to send convoys to the wrong venues.
Convoys across the country are planning to meet up at Parliament on Tuesday to protest COVID-19 mandates, reverse COVID-19 legislation, and get the "immediate restoration of our universal inalienable human rights".
They mirror similar protests in Canada, where more than 200 trucks and other vehicles blocked roads in central Ottawa to show their disapproval of vaccine mandates.

The New Zealand group originally planned to be at the Auckland Harbour Bridge by about 1:15pm on Sunday, but the convoy had accidentally split into three and had to regroup in Whangārei at about 12:30pm. The North Island convoy is scheduled to reach Hamilton on Sunday and spend the night there.
The convoy was communicating on Telegram and some members also started a channel on Zello, an app that functions like a walkie talkie. But there were reports that people were trolling the Zello channel in a bid to mislead the convoy.
"Beware the weirdos trying to lead astray the convoy, also Zello stay off it, play those good vibe sounds, laugh and be happy whanau, love, peace and harmony all the way," a user said.
There were concerns from people in the convoy who were worried they wouldn't find the group if Zello had been hijacked.
"On Zello people say the lead has driven off too fast and convoy is spread out, nobody can contact the lead vehicle to get them to slow. Very serious if true, but if lies, what's actually going on?" they wrote.

Dozens of protesters were asking on Telegram and in their Facebook group where the convoy was and wanted clearer information.
"C'mon guys. How are we meant to support when there's no updates, photos, live feeds?? We need to get this out there and be seen. I've been looking and looking and coming up empty-handed. Such a shame!" one Facebook user said.
But there were conflicting reports on whether Zello was actually compromised and rumours that even Telegram was no longer safe.
"Zello is not under the control of our group. There are people using it for trolling. Be careful who you listen and talk [to] in there. Spread the message," one person said.
But another user disagreed and wrote: "Saying on Zello not to use Telegram, everyone download Zello and join 'freedom convoy 2022 nz' for live communication and locations."

Twitter user @StrayDogNZ, whose name is Nick, has been following the convoys on Sunday and found that communication for the South Island group travelling north to Wellington was also slightly hairy. One man, who is part of the lead cars in this convoy, posted to the Facebook group that everyone should meet in Washdyke near Timaru to regroup since things "were messy".
But then he said only moments later they couldn't slow down anymore and wait for people to catch up.
"We are already doing 60km/h in a 100km/h. I don't want to hear any other ideas either," he said.
"If you aren't following me you won't find your way through Christchurch, we organised that it would be me and the trucks at the front."
Not only were social media groups infiltrated, but a Spotify playlist the convoy organisers made for others to add "good tunes to drive to" was taken over by people who opposed the protesters.
"Some people are adding some really disgusting music (don't think you can call it music). I'm guessing [it's] people that don't agree with the convoy because they have nothing better to do," one person said.
Songs that were added by those opposing the convoy included 'Redneck Piece of White Trash' by Rebel Son, 'Why Don't You Get A Job' by The Offspring, and 'Dumb F**k' by Peaches.
The North Island convoy is due to arrive in Wellington on Monday night and the South Island group is scheduled to reach Picton sometime that same day before getting the ferry across.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

And it’s getting worse in Ottawa:


----------



## Imaculata

Holy cow! That is attempted mass murder! Have people completely lost their minds?!

Meanwhile... A small update on the New Zealand convoy:

The Southisland convoy realized too late that they needed a valid vaccine pass to board the interisland ferry. They have put out a call for small boats to carry them across. This is trending under the Twitter hashtag *#dumbkirk*


----------



## Aeson

Is this a sign of the end times? Canadians being impolite, and attempted murdery?


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> Holy cow! That is attempted mass murder! Have people completely lost their minds?!
> 
> Meanwhile... A small update on the New Zealand convoy:
> 
> The Southisland convoy realized too late that they needed a valid vaccine pass to board the interisland ferry. They have put out a call for small boats to carry them across. This is trending under the Twitter hashtag *#dumbkirk*




 Slight flaw in their plan. I'm not sure smaller ferries are available. 

 To cross Cook Straight without using the main ferries you're looking at flying commercial or charter boat/plane. 

 I'll check r/New Zealand for any updates. Usually a good place to look.


----------



## Aeson

If you see Confederate flags, you might be okay. If you hear banjo music, run for your lives. Grab a few sheep as you go to be on the safe side.


----------



## Mezuka

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And it’s getting worse in Ottawa:



I read that morning. These guys are criminals! The army needs to step in fast.


----------



## Aeson

Mezuka said:


> I read that morning. These guys are criminals! The army needs to step in fast.



Here in the US, the army cannot act as police force within the borders. Can they do that in Canada?


----------



## Not a Hobbit

Gaming related?


----------



## Aeson

Not a Hobbit said:


> Gaming related?



Could be Call of Duty cosplayers running around.


----------



## Mezuka

Aeson said:


> Here in the US, the army cannot act as police force within the borders. Can they do that in Canada?




The Prime Minister can invoque the War Measures Act.

It was done, by Trudeau's Father (Pierre Elliot), in the early 70s because of the FLQ, a hardline Quebec separatist group. A UK commercial attache had been kidnapped and a Quebec minister (congressman) was kidnapped and killed. (*please do not start a political discussion about that can of worms*). The army was sent at the request of Quebec Prime Minister Robert Bourassa.

The army was also called in during the Oka city/Khanawake aboriginal crisis (1990) who were blocading a vital bridge* (edit: over ancestral burial land claims. The mayor wanted to build a golf course and housing)*. Police forces had botched an assault. There was one death on both sides. That was done at the request of Quebec Prime Minister Robert Bourassa, who managed to get elected once again. The Canadian Prime Minister at the time was Brian Mulroney.

It leaves deep wounds but settles the matter at hand.


----------



## Umbran

Not a Hobbit said:


> Gaming related?




This is in more general Geek Talk forum, it doesn't need to directly relate to gaming.


----------



## Not a Hobbit

Umbran said:


> And folks... this thread isn't about voting and government forms.  *It is about gaming* and a disease.
> 
> That's a sentence I don't think I ever wanted to say.  But there it is.  Can we bring it back around, please and thanks?



Emphasis added.


----------



## Aeson

What happens due to the disease can affect gaming just as much as the disease itself. It's not explicit, but this is all connected. I think this has become more about venting and general awareness than anything. It's still on topic in my opinion.


----------



## Mezuka

Not a Hobbit said:


> Emphasis added.



No one in downtown Ottawa is gaming these days. They can't hear themselves talking because of the protest trucks blowing their horns constantly.


----------



## Aeson

We could talk about P&P, Pizza & Pineapple. Would that work?


----------



## Umbran

Not a Hobbit said:


> Emphasis added.




So, that's from a year and a half ago, and you've cherry picked the comment that wasn't in mod voice. 

Interestingly, when I had to put my foot down the following day, you may note I used different wording.  

At this point, you are challenging moderation in-thread, which is a much bigger no-no than wandering away from gaming topics.  I can break out the red text and make it official, if you require that.  But either way, if you have further comments, you can speak to Danny or me _privately_. Thank you.


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> F.Y.I., things are ugly in Ottowa.  The “protesters” are engaging in all kinds of uncivil and illegal actions.  Assaults & batteries, death threats, sexual assault threats, robbery, vandalism, disturbing the peace, interference with healthcare workers, defecation on people’s porches, etc.
> 
> The police chief is apparently of the mindset that “nothing can be done.”  (IMHO, he’s either complicit or incompetent.)



We've certainly seen behavior like this before and the complicity/incompetence of the police with certain kinds of protests is a *very *serious problem, and, unfortunately, likely to get worse.


----------



## Cadence

Update:  Offspring is back in school (masked of course).  For me, the disgusting amount of sweat was back again last night, so my 24 hour count for no symptoms is certainly not starting yet.  Other half is still tired. Should be good enough to on-line DM for the short Tuesday session and for the longer Thursday session (both of which were cancelled in the service of sleep/rest last week).


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> We've certainly seen behavior like this before and the complicity/incompetence of the police with certain kinds of protests is a *very *serious problem, and, unfortunately, likely to get worse.




NPR today reports that there's been a state of emergency declared in Ottowa

And, while I do not know the situation in full, it seems to me that asking a typical police officer to face down a Mack truck... is asking a lot.


----------



## Mezuka

Umbran said:


> NPR today reports that there's been a state of emergency declared in Ottowa:
> And, while I do not know the situation in full, it seems to me that asking a typical police officer to face down a Mack truck... is asking a lot.




The Ottawa police, the province of Ontario police and the RCMP federal police have to coordonated. Watching the news conferences from various officials and politicians seems like they are throwing the ball in each others camp. Feels very disorganized.

In Quebec, the municipal police, the mayor, the provincial police and Quebec government worked hand in hand to repel a blockade attempt last weekend. Regular police were facing Mack trucks and did the job. They threatened fines and towing. It is also possible to suspend driving licences and revoke vehicle insurance.


----------



## Umbran

Mezuka said:


> The Ottawa police, the province on Ontario police and the RCMP federal police have to coordonated. Watching the news conferences from various officials and politicians seems like they are throwing the ball in each others camp. Feels very disorganized.
> 
> In Quebec, the municipal police, provincial police and Quebec government worked hand in hand to repel a blockade attempt last weekend. Regular police were facing Mack trucks and did the job.




So, you see, maybe there's a difference between asking them to face Mack trucks with, and without, coordinated support....


----------



## Mezuka

Umbran said:


> So, you see, maybe there's a difference between asking them to face Mack trucks with, and without, coordinated support....



The problem in Ontario is the Prime Minister Doug Ford. He is a conservative and part of his base is anti-vaccination. He has an election coming very soon in the Spring. Ottawa citizens are paying the price of his political maneuvering to get reelected.


----------



## Aeson

It's been my experience, you can't ask a police officer to do anything. They have to decide to do it on their own. They're a lot like cats that way.


----------



## CleverNickName

Aeson said:


> It's been my experience, you can't ask a police officer to do anything. They have to decide to do it on their own. They're a lot like cats that way.



I think that they are like any other authority: if you want them to take a particular action you first need to make them think that it was their idea to begin with.  (I'm in a client meeting right now, and I can confirm this holds true for engineers and city council members at least.)

"Someone needs to put a larger water line along that street."
"Are you suggesting that _we _put a larger pipeline along _that _street?"
"Excellent idea, Councilman!  I see why your constituents re-elected you!"


----------



## Mezuka

A law firm and some citizens of Ottawa have lauched a class action suit against 6 organizers and 60 truck drivers identified with pictures and license numbers. 10 millions dollars. 5 millions as compensation and another 5 millions in punitive damage.

Today they won a 10 day injunction in court ordering the immediate stop of the use of truck horns.


----------



## Eltab

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And it’s getting worse in Ottawa:



The phrase "agent provocateur" comes to mind. 

How does an out-of-town trucker know that particular building is made of tinder?  And - given the description - an uncontrolled inferno would spread into the trucks too, yes?


----------



## Ryujin

Mezuka said:


> The problem in Ontario is the Prime Minister Doug Ford. He is a conservative and part of his base is anti-vaccination. He has an election coming very soon in the Spring. Ottawa citizens are paying the price of his political maneuvering to get reelected.



Premier. Provincial elected leaders are referred to as Premiers. The Prime Minister leads the country.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> NPR today reports that there's been a state of emergency declared in Ottowa
> 
> And, while I do not know the situation in full, it seems to me that asking a typical police officer to face down a Mack truck... is asking a lot.



That's pretty much the only thing that would get Ottawa's totally ineffective Police Chief off his butt, to do something. Side Note: This is the same person who was passed over for the job in Toronto. That's why he's now in Ottawa. 

On another side note, the protesters closed down their little shindig some time last night, so everything was clear by the time that I rolled into the downtown core at around 5:20am this morning. Streets were still shut down, but no trucks that I saw.


----------



## Mezuka

Ryujin said:


> Premier. Provincial elected leaders are referred to as Premiers. The Prime Minister leads the country.



Correct. My mistake. In my defence there is no such distinction in French.


----------



## Hussar

Eltab said:


> The phrase "agent provocateur" comes to mind.
> 
> How does an out-of-town trucker know that particular building is made of tinder?  And - given the description - an uncontrolled inferno would spread into the trucks too, yes?



Sorry?  Are you seriously suggesting that this was done to make truckers look bad and not by any truckers?


----------



## billd91

Hussar said:


> Sorry?  Are you seriously suggesting that this was done to make truckers look bad and not by any truckers?



Right wing/white supremacist terrorists have gotten involved in protests before. 








						Minneapolis police say 'Umbrella Man' was a white supremacist trying to incite George Floyd rioting
					

Follow the StarTribune for the news, photos and videos from the Twin Cities and beyond.




					www.startribune.com
				




It very well could be truckers, but it could also be a harder core of violent nutjob taking part. Compare to July 6. Most of the rioters were just morons incited by unscrupulous politicians who can’t accept reality. But there were some there in body armor and toting zip ties. Those were far more radical people. Might be something similar here.


----------



## Thomas Shey

I'd seen some signs in early reporting that there were more than just ordinary truckers there, at least.


----------



## Hussar

billd91 said:


> Right wing/white supremacist terrorists have gotten involved in protests before.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Minneapolis police say 'Umbrella Man' was a white supremacist trying to incite George Floyd rioting
> 
> 
> Follow the StarTribune for the news, photos and videos from the Twin Cities and beyond.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.startribune.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It very well could be truckers, but it could also be a harder core of violent nutjob taking part. Compare to July 6. Most of the rioters were just morons incited by unscrupulous politicians who can’t accept reality. But there were some there in body armor and toting zip ties. Those were far more radical people. Might be something similar here.



Ah, that wasn't the direction I was thinking.  Extreme within the group?  That I'll buy.  But, that's not what "agent provocateur" means, is it?  Or am I missing something?  I thought agent provocateur meant someone from the side against truckers was impersonating truckers to make the truckers look bad.


----------



## Hussar

In other Canadian news:


----------



## billd91

Hussar said:


> Ah, that wasn't the direction I was thinking.  Extreme within the group?  That I'll buy.  But, that's not what "agent provocateur" means, is it?  Or am I missing something?  I thought agent provocateur meant someone from the side against truckers was impersonating truckers to make the truckers look bad.



An agent provocateur is less about making them look bad and more about inciting them. Maybe a more likely description might be chaos agent.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Part of the thing about the Ottowa situation is that the antivax element is just a pretense.  A veneer for a neonazi rally.


It’s pretty much the lesson of the story the reporter told about the crust punk bar bartender tossing out the Nazi, playing out in real time.

Or, as Aesop wrote centuries ago, “You are known by the company you keep.”


----------



## Aeson

There are always more layers to peel back. The deeper you go, the more rotten it gets.

As the wise sage, and philosopher, Alfred Pennyworth so eloquently put it.

"Some men just want to watch the world burn"


----------



## Aeson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Part of the thing about the Ottowa situation is that the antivax element is just a pretense.  A veneer for a neonazi rally.
> 
> 
> Its pretty much the lesson of the story the reporter told about the crust punk bar bartender tossing out the Nazi, playing out in real time.
> 
> Or, as Aesop wrote centuries ago, “You are known by the company you keep.”



They have an actual lich on their side.  We're doomed.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> A veneer for a neonazi rally.




At which point, it really is no longer appropriate for this thread.


----------



## Ryujin

Thomas Shey said:


> I'd seen some signs in early reporting that there were more than just ordinary truckers there, at least.



You are correct. There are various "supporters" present and two of the major organizers, who started the GoFundMe campaign, are not truckers. The truckers, themselves are the minority present. As I have said previously I can't go into details about this, because of the posting rules. The information is out there.


----------



## Zardnaar

No opportunistic MP took advantage of the recent convoy. Protest is petering out. 









						Covid-19: The protest that MPs deliberately ignored
					

ANALYSIS: To be effective protests need some sort of political champion. Literally no politician has shown their face outside during this Parliamentary protest.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Aeson

I had been sick since Sunday. I just took an at home test. The results are positive. ☹


----------



## Zardnaar

Aeson said:


> I had been sick since Sunday. I just took an at home test. The results are positive. ☹




 Le suck. Good luck


----------



## Umbran

Aeson said:


> I had been sick since Sunday. I just took an at home test. The results are positive. ☹




Be smart.  Take care of yourself.  Call your doctor, and all that.  I hope it passes quickly with little significant impact.


----------



## J.Quondam

Aeson said:


> I had been sick since Sunday. I just took an at home test. The results are positive. ☹



Ugh, sorry to hear that. Take care of yourself and yours.


----------



## Zardnaar

First confirmed case locally in almost two years. Passer through. 









						Covid-19: Cases in Queenstown and Dunedin, restaurants and bars named locations of interest
					

A positive Covid-19 case has been confirmed in Dunedin - the third to be confirmed in the southern region this week.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Zardnaar

Cops don't usually manhandle people often at protests. She was also naked. 









						Video appears to show protester dragged by hair at Parliament
					

A video is circulating online of an anti-vaccine mandate protester appearing to be dragged by her hair before a police officer arrests her for trespassing.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




122 arrested. 









						Parliament protest: Police arrest 122 in efforts to control occupation
					

Tensions rose on Thursday as the protest against Covid-19 protection measures dragged on into its third day, with police hauling away dozens of protesters who refused to leave Parliament grounds.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Cadence

All three of us at home are recovered, and I'm back to work in person for the first time this month  (private office for most of the day, N95'd  when out of it).


----------



## J.Quondam

I posted some time ago . I can only hope, I guess.


----------



## Mannahnin

Well, I'm glad she's getting proper care.  Hopefully this will indeed get her to take it more seriously.


----------



## Zardnaar

Good while it lasted. Cases multiplied by 4 in 2 weeks. 400+ cases today, 2800+ active cases. 


 Good news is less than 1% in hospital and 0 in ICU.

 Expected peak in March with 30k cases. Protesters still outside parliament. They're more or less behaving today and not smashing the joint up. 0 arrests but they turned the sprinklers on them today and it's gonna be a wet and cold weekend. 

 They threatened to tow their cars but no   towing company is willing to do it.

 Cops here don't care guns, they thought of breaking out the wet bus tickets but had to settle for mildly moistened paper towels. Come Monday they might slap some wrists.


----------



## Zardnaar

Our version of Ottawa protest. Bit damp. 


 Not rioting as such emergency services had to take 2 protesters away. 

 I did chuckle when cops walking past as one smart alek was singing the imperial march. 

 Public kinda sick of it but cops don't want  to go in batons flying. Women, children present along with hajas being done so bad look.

 Day 5.


----------



## Zardnaar

Saturday night here comes the mildly moist paper towels. 









						Loud music blasted to deter Parliament protesters in Wellington
					

Loud music, including the work of Barry Manilow and the 1990s earworm Macarena, is the latest deterrent launched at the anti-vaccine mandate protesters at parliament in Wellington.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Macarena played over would make me move but the protesters started dancing to it. On the plus side they're wearing clothes today.


----------



## Hussar

To be fair, you have to be a pretty hardcore protester to brave Ottawa in February.  That's BRUTAL weather.


----------



## Mallus

Zardnaar said:


> Cops here don't care guns, they thought of breaking out the wet bus tickets but had to settle for mildly moistened paper towels. Come Monday they might slap some wrists.



What’s it like, living in civilization?


----------



## Aeson

I'm feeling a lot better. I seem to have sinus congestion, and occasional shortness of breath. I noticed that I can't taste some things. If I drink a cola, I couldn't identify if it's Coke, Pepsi, or Dr. Pepper. Coffee has a weak flavor. It's been subtle over the last couple of days. I can smell, but it's not very strong either. 

I know the loss of taste and smell is common. I thought it would be one of the first things, not the last. What are the experiences of those of you that have had it? Was it sudden, or build over time? Are you still dealing with it? How long after?


----------



## Ryujin

Police are starting to move in on the Windsor, Ontario protest that's blocking the border with the United States. The injunction came down at 7:00pm last night.



			https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2002470979840


----------



## South by Southwest

Aeson said:


> I know the loss of taste and smell is common. I thought it would be one of the first things, not the last. What are the experiences of those of you that have had it? Was it sudden, or build over time? Are you still dealing with it? How long after?



I've not had it, but I've many friends who have, especially under the Omicron (Perseii 8) variant, and what they've all gone through is about a six-month period of regaining their sense of smell. That's a long wait, but take heart from this: so far they've all had it return _fully_ after that time.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mallus said:


> What’s it like, living in civilization?




 I'll take the 5th.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mallus said:


> What’s it like, living in civilization?




 They're breaking out the mildly moist toilet paper. They're hitting the protesters with baby shark, Celine Dion and James Blunt now.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> They're breaking out the mildly moist toilet paper. They're hitting the protesters with baby shark, Celine Dion and James Blunt now.



They would have used Justin Bieber, but didn't want to get hit with war crimes charges.


----------



## Maxperson

Ryujin said:


> They would have used Justin Bieber, but didn't want to get hit with war crimes charges.



Many years ago I heard about a cable company that changed every station to CSPAN when you were too delinquent with payments.  Apparently it worked better than just shutting the cable off.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> They would have used Justin Bieber, but didn't want to get hit with war crimes charges.




 James Blunt has offered help. 









						'Gimme a shout if this doesn't work': James Blunt overlooked in favour of recorder music
					

If blasting the parliament protestors with Barry Manilow doesn't do the trick, UK singer James Blunt knows a tune that might.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 800+ cases today.


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> James Blunt has offered help.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'Gimme a shout if this doesn't work': James Blunt overlooked in favour of recorder music
> 
> 
> If blasting the parliament protestors with Barry Manilow doesn't do the trick, UK singer James Blunt knows a tune that might.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 800+ cases today.



That's pretty good by American standards.  Los Angeles has a million fewer people than New Zealand, and is one of the most vaccinated areas in the country.  We just dropped down to 2200 people in the hospital.  Not cases. People in the hospital.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I have a feeling that blaring explicit gay music at them would be FAR more annoying to them.  Perhaps…”Be My Valentine” by the deathcore band, BROJOB.  (It’s even appropriate for the season!)

No, I cannot/will not post a video or links to it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> That's pretty good by American standards.  Los Angeles has a million fewer people than New Zealand, and is one of the most vaccinated areas in the country.  We just dropped down to 2200 people in the hospital.  Not cases. People in the hospital.




Well it took 6 months of community spread plus omicron to get there.


----------



## Imaculata

Meanwhile there's a gathering of dumb people in front of my local supermarket, demanding an end to the covid rules in my country. All standing close together and not wearing masks, wearing lights around their necks and carrying garden torches, eager to collect their HCA.


----------



## Aeson

There was a group carrying torches in Charlottesville VA a few years ago, it turned out just fine, but there were good people on both sides. 

Stay as far away from them as possible.


----------



## Zardnaar

Lady here left her husband of 45 years because he got vaxed. He's in his 80's and survived polio.


----------



## Aeson

Now he'll survive this AND his terrible wife.


----------



## South by Southwest

Zardnaar said:


> Lady here left her husband of 45 years because he got vaxed. He's in his 80's and survived polio.



That is heartbreaking. On several levels, in fact, that is heartbreaking.


----------



## Zardnaar

South by Southwest said:


> That is heartbreaking. On several levels, in fact, that is heartbreaking.




 IDK how true it is but that's what she claimed on national tv.


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> Lady here left her husband of 45 years because he got vaxed. He's in his 80's and survived polio.



Don't know what to say to this, it both for crying and laughing at the same time.

I feel sorry for the guy that lost his wife after 45 years for something as dumb as vaccination disagreement,
if it were about vaccination of their kids it would be another matter, but I don't think that people in their 70s or 80s are planning to have any new ones.

but on the upper note, at least he found out that she is crazy, even if it's 44,5 years too late.


----------



## Cadence

Here's hoping the trends continue.  Here's the new hospital admissions for the US per 100,000  






And here's the excess deaths chart.  Far left is the big flu outbreak of 2017-2018, far right bars won't be updated for a few weeks.


----------



## Mezuka

Justin Trudeau will announce this afternoon the use of the Emergency Act Law* to widen the powers of police and the governement.

*Earlier, I mentionned the War Measures Act. That act was replaced in 1988 by the Emergency Act. It is less powerful and is monitored by parliement.


----------



## Mezuka

A group of 11 arrested near Coutts border in Manitoba. They had a cache of weapons and were ready to use it against police officers.









						Alberta RCMP arrest 13 people at Coutts border blockade, seize weapons
					

Alberta RCMP officers have arrested 13 people and seized a number of weapons including guns and body armour near the Coutts border crossing blockade.




					calgary.ctvnews.ca


----------



## CleverNickName

Mezuka said:


> A group of 11 arrested near Coutts border in Manitoba. They had a cache of weapons and were ready to use it against police officers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Alberta RCMP arrest 13 people at Coutts border blockade, seize weapons
> 
> 
> Alberta RCMP officers have arrested 13 people and seized a number of weapons including guns and body armour near the Coutts border crossing blockade.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> calgary.ctvnews.ca



And all this nonsense started because Canada wanted to limit the risk of exposing her citizens to a deadly global pandemic.  I mean, America is leading the world in Covid-19 cases _and _deaths, but WhAt AbOuT tHe EcOnOmY?

I'm in a particularly foul mood today.  My immune-compromised, cancer-survivor mom was diagnosed with Covid-19.  This was in spite of her being double-vaccinated, and boosted, _and having already gotten it back in December and surviving it after a 5-day hospital stay.  _I find myself getting really short with people who say things like "it's no big deal" or "everyone is going to get it anyway."

Because it is a very big deal.  And not everyone who gets it will survive it.


----------



## Mezuka

CleverNickName said:


> And all this nonsense started because Canada wanted to limit the risk of exposing her citizens to a deadly global pandemic.  I mean, America is leading the world in Covid-19 cases _and _deaths, but WhAt AbOuT tHe EcOnOmY?
> 
> I'm in a particularly foul mood today.  My immune-compromised, cancer-survivor mom was diagnosed with Covid-19.  This was in spite of her being double-vaccinated, and boosted, _and having already gotten it back in December and surviving it after a 5-day hospital stay.  _I find myself getting really short with people who say things like "it's no big deal" or "everyone is going to get it anyway."
> 
> Because it is a very big deal.  And not everyone who gets it will survive it.



It's become obvious to me that these people are Libertarians (mixed in with extreme religious right and neo-nazi groups) who hate the central government. Covid-19 is just an excuse for them to enact their "erotic dream" of overthrowing the Liberal Canadian government, which is centre-leftist.

They do not represent the truckers. They played their hand. Now the government will use all its power to round them up and prosecute them.


----------



## CleverNickName

Mezuka said:


> It's become obvious to me that these people are Libertarians (mixed in with extreme religious right and neo-nazi groups) who hate the central government. Covid-19 is just an excuse for them to enact their "erotic dream" of overthrowing the Liberal Canadian government, which is centre-leftist.
> 
> They do not represent the truckers. They played their hand. Now the government will use all its power to round them up and prosecute them.



Yeah, I know and it's horrible.  I was just trying to pull the thread away from politics, and back on topic.


----------



## Mezuka

CleverNickName said:


> Yeah, I know and it's horrible.  I was just trying to pull the thread away from politics, and back on topic.



The ironic things, to get back on topic, is that all the Canadian provinces have been easing Covid restrictions in the last two weeks because the number of hospitalisations is decreasing. Some provinces have announced the end of vaccination passports (for now). The protesters didn't have to do what they did. It was going to happen anyway.


----------



## Mannahnin

Mezuka said:


> The ironic things, to get back on topic, is that all the Canadian provinces have been easing Covid restrictions in the last two weeks because the number of hospitalisations is decreasing. Some provinces have announced the end of vaccination passports (for now). The protesters didn't have to do what they did. It was going to happen anyway.



Well, but to see that they'd have to be paying attention to the numbers, rather than to their echo chamber ideologically-driven media.


----------



## J.Quondam

Mezuka said:


> The protesters didn't have to do what they did. It was going to happen anyway.



I get the impression they aren't really legit protesters, so much as astroturfers.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

It's pretty clear that whatever legitimate protesting was intended by anyone at all, it was corrupted from the get-go (and from the top) before it even got rolling. And yet they're gonna cry "government oppression" against the hardworking little people. It's all smoke and mirrors.

On the main subject: I've been trying to decide when the best time to go get my booster shot should be: I recovered from Covid at the end of January (my booster was scheduled for right in the middle of my infection). I hear that it's recommended that you wait awhile (as much as three months) before getting boosters after an infection. I don't know if I want to wait that long. To make matters more complicated, my teenaged kids are up for their boosters. But do we wait? There is almost NO WAY that they didn't get infected when I had it, but they remained asymptomatic. My wife as well (she should have been boosted while I was sick, but they told her to come back later, in case of infection).


----------



## J.Quondam

FitzTheRuke said:


> It's pretty clear that whatever legitimate protesting was intended by anyone at all, it was corrupted from the get-go (and from the top) before it even got rolling. And yet they're gonna cry "government oppression" against the hardworking little people. It's all smoke and mirrors.
> 
> On the main subject: I've been trying to decide when the best time to go get my booster shot should be: I recovered from Covid at the end of January (my booster was scheduled for right in the middle of my infection). I hear that it's recommended that you wait awhile (as much as three months) before getting boosters after an infection. I don't know if I want to wait that long. To make matters more complicated, my teenaged kids are up for their boosters. But do we wait? There is almost NO WAY that they didn't get infected when I had it, but they remained asymptomatic. My wife as well (she should have been boosted while I was sick, but they told her to come back later, in case of infection).



What's the medical rationale for waiting? To reduce risk of the vaccine making you sick?


----------



## FitzTheRuke

J.Quondam said:


> What's the medical rationale for waiting? To reduce risk of the vaccine making you sick?



I can't say I really know, but the Pharmacist told my wife to wait because the booster was not as effective if you were infected, even if asymptomatic. Some literature (that I did not read fully) suggested that studies imply that three months from infection is ideal. I don't know if I want to wait that long.


----------



## Ryujin

Mezuka said:


> The ironic things, to get back on topic, is that all the Canadian provinces have been easing Covid restrictions in the last two weeks because the number of hospitalisations is decreasing. Some provinces have announced the end of vaccination passports (for now). The protesters didn't have to do what they did. It was going to happen anyway.



The Ontario Government was going to announce a reduction in restrictions around this time anyway, but now these wingnuts will use that to declare a victory over "their oppressors."


----------



## Baron Opal II

J.Quondam said:


> What's the medical rationale for waiting? To reduce risk of the vaccine making you sick?



You want your immune system at a baseline so that it has a strong response / update. Too close to an active infection of the same agent blunts the response since your body thinks that the detected antigens are just the tail end of the same infection.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

J.Quondam said:


> What's the medical rationale for waiting? To reduce risk of the vaccine making you sick?



When my barber caught COVID- which changed his anti-vax mindset- he was told he needed to wait 90 days after testing negative before getting his first shot.

As others noted, it is probably because it’s the best way to ensure the best immune response from the injection with the least chance of side effects.


----------



## Zardnaar

Protesters apparently getting a bit funky. Some have been their for a week no showers or baths. Public fountains and rain. Portaloos ate apparently rank. 

 The mildly moistened paper towels coming out again. Getting blasted with debating chamber of parliament. 









						Live: 'Time is fast running out': Police announce crackdown on protest in Wellington
					

Towing of vehicles will soon begin, and anyone who blocks police will be arrested.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




  No party in parliament will meet with them.

Christopher Luxon supports Jacinda Ardern's refusal to meet with Parliament protesters


----------



## Umbran

FitzTheRuke said:


> On the main subject: I've been trying to decide when the best time to go get my booster shot should be: I recovered from Covid at the end of January (my booster was scheduled for right in the middle of my infection). I hear that it's recommended that you wait awhile (as much as three months) before getting boosters after an infection. I don't know if I want to wait that long.




That's got to be confusing.  Definitely a question for your doctor, not Joe Bob on the Internet.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Umbran said:


> That's got to be confusing.  Definitely a question for your doctor, not Joe Bob on the Internet.



Well yeah, I was more chatting about it than expecting to follow advice. On the other hand, my doctor is near impossible to speak to, such is the state of our medical system.


----------



## Zardnaar

21 months Covid free locally is over. Up to 5 cases now. 









						SDHB reveals number of new cases in Dunedin, Queenstown and Southland
					

The Southern District Health Board has released a breakdown of Covid-19 cases across the South, with new cases in Queenstown, Gore, Dunedin and...




					www.odt.co.nz
				




 Even if they squash those ones there's more in the surrounding area and that's just the ones they know of. 

 Soon it's gonna be self managed isolation translation please stay at home.


----------



## Horwath

Umbran said:


> That's got to be confusing.  Definitely a question for your doctor, not Joe Bob on the Internet.



problem is, that they are mostly doing guesswork also.

Here is my example:

had the antigen test back in april '21.
IgG count 167. Over 50 is considered positive contact with virus. No symptoms.
Went for the first shot in June '21. Asked the doctor at vaccination point, with the lab results in hand, is ok to get the shot 60 days after having somewhat positive result(some say that IgG count should be over 500 for immunity), doctor said, it's "most likely" not a problem.
luckily, there was no problem with my 2 doses, had only mild fever for 1 day after. 2nd shot, I was somewhat tired for 2 days. No biggie.

Now in January, 3 of my friends had Covid, positive PCR test, 2 days later I come down with SAME symptoms, PCR test negative. But as I was only one vaccinated out of 4 of us with 2 shots, I only had 1 day fever(38,8 C), they had for 3 days.

I ask my family doctor should I get a booster? It was due at late january/early february, she says that you need to wait 2-3 months after infection, but as you were negative it probably(again probably) OK. But, as false negatives are also happened in small cases in PCR test, that I should, just in case wait for a month or two.

I will probably go for antigen serum test again i a week or so, and depending on antibody count will decide about the 3rd shot.


TLDR: it's a new virus and new vaccines, and even doctors are not sure about what antibody count is sufficient protection, just that more is better. That's what I gathered from talking to few of them.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

That's got some similarities to my situation. Actual medical advice can be pretty vague. My employee (who was positive first for covid) was sick for two weeks, but the current isolation is only five days. When she called and asked her doctor if she should still stay home after her seventh or eighth day of being sick, she was told she could go back to work "If you want." 

She was thinking "What does what _I want_ have to do with it? Am I still contagious or not!?"

(She stayed home for fifteen days, IIR, in the end, because that was how long she was sick for).


----------



## Horwath

FitzTheRuke said:


> That's got some similarities to my situation. Actual medical advice can be pretty vague. My employee (who was positive first for covid) was sick for two weeks, but the current isolation is only five days. When she called and asked her doctor if she should still stay home after her seventh or eighth day of being sick, she was told she could go back to work "If you want."
> 
> She was thinking "What does what _I want_ have to do with it? Am I still contagious or not!?"
> 
> (She stayed home for fifteen days, IIR, in the end, because that was how long she was sick for).



yeah, it's good idea to stay at home as long as you are sick.

you are probably contagious while you are still coughing from Covid.

In Croatia, isolation is 5 days if no symptoms, and 10 days if you have any. And some doctors say you should stay at home for a few days after last symptoms if they persist for more than 10 days.

also, for your question on getting 3rd shot after having Covid, only danger can be in over reacting of your immune system in some sort of auto-immune reaction. Most of them are pretty mild, but in very rare cases, they can get serious. That is why we get most vaccinations in more than one dose, so we do not over strain our immune systems.


----------



## Zardnaar

I don't think they know 100% how long Covid is contagious for. 

 We used a two week qurantine here still got through multiple times. That could involve human error though or undetected transmission in quarantine. 

 The tests aren't 108% reliable either and when you're dealing with thousands of people eventually the odds catch up with you.


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> I don't think they know 100% how long Covid is contagious for.
> 
> We used a two week qurantine here still got through multiple times. That could involve human error though or undetected transmission in quarantine.
> 
> The tests aren't 108% reliable either and when you're dealing with thousands of people eventually the odds catch up with you.



currently, we "know" that you are contagious 1-3 days before getting any symptoms.

Now, if your immune system is good and you get no symptoms or only mild(that you confuse it for a cold or just being tired today) you become super carrier.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I have a feeling that blaring explicit gay music at them would be FAR more annoying to them.  Perhaps…”Be My Valentine” by the deathcore band, BROJOB.  (It’s even appropriate for the season!)
> 
> No, I cannot/will not post a video or links to it.



Aaand according to a post I just saw, the truckers were using a communications app and some _counterprotesters_ figured that out and which channels they were on.  Then their efforts at communicating with each other were thoroughly compromised.  Some simply heckled the truckers.  Others overwhelmed the app and those channels with the gay cowboy anthem “Ram Ranch” and sexually explicit word salad.  Some of the counterprotesters even posed as moderators.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Aaand according to a post I just saw, the truckers were using a communications app and some _counterprotesters_ figured that out and which channels they were on.  Then their efforts at communicating with each other were thoroughly compromised.  Some simply heckled the truckers.  Others overwhelmed the app and those channels with the gay cowboy anthem “Ram Ranch” and sexually explicit word salad.  Some of the counterprotesters even posed as moderators.



There's video of Ram Ranch doing this and actively following the protestors.


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> problem is, that they are mostly doing guesswork also.




Their educated guesswork is generally superior to our uneducated guesswork.

I mean, unless you wanna go take ivermectin, or something.



Horwath said:


> Here is my example:




Alas, personal anecdotes are not data.


----------



## Mezuka

Apparently, the blockade in Coutts, Alberta will be lifted today by 9 am. Organizers now claim they were infiltrated by extremists with guns. Which polluted their protest. They also claim the Emergency Act has nothing to do with the decision.

I have my doubts. When the government gives itself the power to revoke your truck driver's licence *for life* and block your bank account that will have an impact on decisions you make.


----------



## Horwath

Umbran said:


> Their educated guesswork is generally superior to our uneducated guesswork.
> 
> I mean, unless you wanna go take ivermectin, or something.
> 
> 
> 
> Alas, personal anecdotes are not data.



of course it is.
That is why I am vaccinated and not in the pitchfork and torch crowd.

But, still, the truth is that we do not know everything about this thing and that more things will be proven wrong what we though was right.
But most things will be confirmed as correct.


----------



## Mezuka

*Ottawa police chief resigns.* Last weekend, citizens decided to block a road themselves against a new anti-vaxxers convoy arriving in Ottawa, because the police weren't doing anything. Hopefully, the new chief will be a better strategist and tactician.

Another border blockade was abandoned in Manitoba. RCMP police opened another blockade in British Colombia making multiple arrests. Definitely, a shift since Justin Trudeau invoked the Emergency Act.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Our weekly comic order (which trucks all the way across Canada) is late again this week (meaning we don't have any of LAST week OR this week's Diamond comics). I am told that it is because of the Truck protests.

It's been bad enough since most of our roads washed out due to climate change. Life sure is "fun" these days!

I've been making jokes that it's time for the 9.8 richter earthquake that we've been expecting for a few hundred years. 

...Not that my joke is all that funny.


----------



## Zardnaar

What is everyone overseas doing in regards to dining out? 

 Omicron here but cases are very low atm. We're looking at take out more but are thinking of a last hurrah at our local. 

 They do social distancing, all staff in masks, vaccine passport and it's a quiet night and we can dine outside. Both of us are double vaxxed + booster. 

 Think the larger family dining things are out the window.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> What is everyone overseas doing in regards to dining out?
> 
> Omicron here but cases are very low atm. We're looking at take out more but are thinking of a last hurrah at our local.
> 
> They do social distancing, all staff in masks, vaccine passport and it's a quiet night and we can dine outside. Both of us are double vaxxed + booster.
> 
> Think the larger family dining things are out the window.




If it's a place where you get the food at the counter and it"s almost empty then I've been eating in.  

Omicron looks to be going down quickly here's so probably won't be too long before I get more open in eating out.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> If it's a place where you get the food at the counter and it"s almost empty then I've been eating in.
> 
> Omicron looks to be going down quickly here's so probably won't be too long before I get more open in eating out.




Yeah gonna avoid the weekend evenings


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> What is everyone overseas doing in regards to dining out?




I mostly don't dine out.  There've been a couple of exceptions - one dim sum place has really good ventilation, and huge amounts of space between tables for the carts to get by, and I've been there... twice during the pandemic. 

Thankfully, I live in an area with many, many choices for delivery.


----------



## Zardnaar

Only two other people here early. Multiple bookings though. 

 Double shot vaccine rates age 12+ hit 94.7%. 48.4% boosters. 

 Kid rates lower but they only offered that recently. 46% 5-11 yo.

 Got vaccine passed we normally come here for breakfast the night staff checking the passports.


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> What is everyone overseas doing in regards to dining out?
> 
> Omicron here but cases are very low atm. We're looking at take out more but are thinking of a last hurrah at our local.
> 
> They do social distancing, all staff in masks, vaccine passport and it's a quiet night and we can dine outside. Both of us are double vaxxed + booster.
> 
> Think the larger family dining things are out the window.



In Croatia we have the "gremlin" variant of Covid.

All the bars, restaurant, clubs, gyms are open until midnight. 

Because government think that Covid spreads only from 24.00h until 06.00h.

good thing is that most clubs require covid pass as it gets really crowded.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I have been taking more risks dining out, but, more often than not, I try to make sure I’m not seated too near other diners.

And I’m not dining out daily, that’s for sure.  Takeout happens more often than dine in, probably…4-1.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

A lot of our restaurants have plexiglass screens between tables indoors and lots of outdoor seating.


----------



## Zardnaar

Horwath said:


> In Croatia we have the "gremlin" variant of Covid.
> 
> All the bars, restaurant, clubs, gyms are open until midnight.
> 
> Because government think that Covid spreads only from 24.00h until 06.00h.
> 
> good thing is that most clubs require covid pass as it gets really crowded.




 Won't be going out clubbing pre Covid.


----------



## JEB

The only time I've eaten in restaurants since Covid started was as a favor to family, and generally under some degree of protest. I don't see that changing until the risk of getting Covid in public places is slim to zero; eating out isn't important enough to me to override the risk.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

For me, it’s got an element of necessity.  I’m on meds that require I eat within a reasonable time of taking them or I could get light-headed or pass out.  And, since some of them are diuretics, that means I also have to be aware of bathroom proximity.

Restaurants help with both.

Yes, I do sometimes get drive-through or takeout and eat in my car, but if I’m there at off-peak hours (right afte opening; after the lunch rush clears), I’m not too concerned.


----------



## CleverNickName

"Dining out" for us means calling up and ordering take-out from our favorite restaurants, or ordering something to be delivered via GrubHub.  I can count on one hand the number of times we've had a seated, indoor meal at a restaurant in the last two years.  It's just not worth the risk.


----------



## Horwath

FitzTheRuke said:


> A lot of our restaurants have plexiglass screens between tables indoors and lots of outdoor seating.



I only saw that at McDonald's. Probably because of global franchise decision.


----------



## Zardnaar

Skipped dessert and the tables were filling up. Think we will go out occasionally but not as a group and to our most trusted places with lots of room and when it's quiet. 

 Been doing exercise stuff so bought a passion fruit ice cream for desert and walked around the park.


----------



## J.Quondam

I've eaten in at a restaurant only once in nearly two years, though I've had a fair bit of take out.  restaurants, etc, all seem to operate pretty much as if there never was a pandemic. Many still have a tattered state masking order or something taped to the door, though. Got to keep up appearances, I guess?


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Horwath said:


> I only saw that at McDonald's. Probably because of global franchise decision.




I'm talking privately owned places. I haven't been in a fast food joint in years.


----------



## Zardnaar

Have protest will steal from kids skate park. 









						Were the rubber mats at the protest stolen from a local skate park? An investigation
					

The rubber mats were originally donated by Wellington City Council and are 'quite distinctive in design'.



					thespinoff.co.nz
				




Keep it classy!!!


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Have protest will steal from kids skate park.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Were the rubber mats at the protest stolen from a local skate park? An investigation
> 
> 
> The rubber mats were originally donated by Wellington City Council and are 'quite distinctive in design'.
> 
> 
> 
> thespinoff.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Keep it classy!!!



I can hear it now; "My taxes paid for this, so I'ma use it!", whether they did, or not.


----------



## J.Quondam

When plain old astroturfing isn't enough, steal rubber mats from kids!
Yeah, that's pretty unsurprising for anti-society "protesters" like that.


----------



## Zardnaar

J.Quondam said:


> When plain old astroturfing isn't enough, steal rubber mats from kids!
> Yeah, that's pretty unsurprising for anti-society "protesters" like that.




 Yeah they've lost all popular support by now. Think the government will just wait for a bit and eventually clear them out. Then people won't care to much about "police brutality".


----------



## Mirtek

Zardnaar said:


> What is everyone overseas doing in regards to dining out?



Currently still only allowed for vaccinated or recently recovered. Masks any time your not sitting at your table. Also restaurants are not allowed to use full capacity. However no contact tracing anymore.

Personally I've been eating out with the same frequency than pre-COVID ever since the restaurants were allowed to reopen.

Just today the decided the new opening plan. From 4th of March dining will again be possible for unvaccinated/-recovered people with a negative test. Limit for indoor events will be raised to 6k (mostly vaccinated/recovered/tested with certain events still being limited to vaccinated/recovered only).

On 20th of March almost all restrictions will fall. Looks like masks in public transport and in stores and similiar indoor venues will be the last active rule then


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> Currently still only allowed for vaccinated or recently recovered. Masks any time your not sitting at your table. Also restaurants are not allowed to use full capacity. However no contact tracing anymore.
> 
> Personally I've been eating out with the same frequency than pre-COVID ever since the restaurants were allowed to reopen.
> 
> Just today the decided the new opening plan. From 4th of March dining will again be possible for unvaccinated/-recovered people with a negative test. Limit for indoor events will be raised to 6k (mostly vaccinated/recovered/tested with certain events still being limited to vaccinated/recovered only).
> 
> On 20th of March almost all restrictions will fall. Looks like masks in public transport and in stores and similiar indoor venues will be the last active rule then




 Yeah with vax plus boosters plus quiet times my risk/benefit analysis is kicking in. 

 Pre vax I wouldn't bother. Great outdoors rapidly gaining appeal as well.

 American stuck here pre Covid. The few remaining tourists essentially just get their visas rolled over. 


 Lufthansa repatriated your country folk April 2020. All the touristy things reasonably quiet.


----------



## J.Quondam

Just because Zard posts all those lovely photos and videos of his locale, I thought I'd post a pic of what it's like in my neck of the woods.


Spoiler: lovely landscape









It's pretty much like that for at _least_ 150 miles in every direction. Now, now don't be too jealous!

edit: To be fair, it _is_ pretty simple to social distance.


----------



## Aeson

The misinformation is scary. The mRNA vaccine gives you HIV/AIDS or increases your chances of get it. A Youtuber went on a rant recently about this. She made a bunch of claims. She even backed it up by saying a Nobel winning scientist who discovered HIV supports these claims. She closes out the video remarking on how suspicious it was this same scientist died 3 days prior to the release of her video. 

How do we combat this? They'll tell you "Do your own research" then tell you not to trust anything hear or read. No one in power can be trusted. 

When I hear this stuff I go to multiple sources. Harvard's medical school website is very informative. If I go to a questionable source I try to find where their information is coming from. As Umbran said, personal anecdotes are not data, yet it seems that's exactly where a lot of this is coming from. 

" My cousin's, uncle's, momma's, nephew's, neighbor's, brother's sister done turned purple an exploded right in his face after gettin the shot. I ain't gonna get it." This is perfectly acceptable to some as proof. 

My sister doesn't want the booster, even though, she's had Covid twice. She's heard people have had bad reactions to it. She can't provide specific examples or details.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

People HAVE had bad reactions to the vaccines.

But the numbers are minuscule compared to the numbers of people who have had bad reactions to COVID…


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> 21 months Covid free locally is over. Up to 5 cases now.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> SDHB reveals number of new cases in Dunedin, Queenstown and Southland
> 
> 
> The Southern District Health Board has released a breakdown of Covid-19 cases across the South, with new cases in Queenstown, Gore, Dunedin and...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.odt.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Even if they squash those ones there's more in the surrounding area and that's just the ones they know of.
> 
> Soon it's gonna be self managed isolation translation please stay at home.



Dunedin? I've always wondered where the people of Atlantis(Numenor) landed in this world when the island sank.


----------



## Aeson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> People HAVE had bad reactions to the vaccines.
> 
> But the numbers are minuscule compared to the numbers of people who have had bad reactions to COVID…



I understand. I'm aware of that, and it's why I schedule my shots for Friday to decrease my chances of having to work while experiencing potential effects.


----------



## J.Quondam

Aeson said:


> The misinformation is scary. The mRNA vaccine gives you HIV/AIDS or increases your chances of get it. A Youtuber went on a rant recently about this. She made a bunch of claims. She even backed it up by saying a Nobel winning scientist who discovered HIV supports these claims. She closes out the video remarking on how suspicious it was this same scientist died 3 days prior to the release of her video.
> 
> How do we combat this? They'll tell you "Do your own research" then tell you not to trust anything hear or read. No one in power can be trusted.
> 
> When I hear this stuff I go to multiple sources. Harvard's medical school website is very informative. If I go to a questionable source I try to find where their information is coming from. As Umbran said, personal anecdotes are not data, yet it seems that's exactly where a lot of this is coming from.
> 
> " My cousin's, uncle's, momma's, nephew's, neighbor's, brother's sister done turned purple an exploded right in his face after gettin the shot. I ain't gonna get it." This is perfectly acceptable to some as proof.
> 
> My sister doesn't want the booster, even though, she's had Covid twice. She's heard people have had bad reactions to it. She can't provide specific examples or details.



I can sympathize. I wish I could figure out how to get through to my parents, but feel perilously close to just throwing up my hands and walking away. It's beyond frustrating that they continue to be stubborn about it, even while suffering the consequences, even despite _literally_ coughing up blood like my mom did the other day.

I just can't understand how the dysinformation worms its way so deep that these political antivaxxers keep on hurting themselves. The peddlers of lies are straight up _evil_, as far as I'm concerned.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Its not the first time counterfactuals got lodged in some group so hard they become an identity element.  This is just a particularly deadly case.


----------



## Umbran

Aeson said:


> How do we combat this?




It isn't easy.  Because is isn't about just information.



Aeson said:


> They'll tell you "Do your own research" then tell you not to trust anything hear or read. No one in power can be trusted.




So, you've hit on part of this - trust....



Aeson said:


> My sister doesn't want the booster, even though, she's had Covid twice. She's heard people have had bad reactions to it. She can't provide specific examples or details.




Because it _isn't about proof_.  It is about the story that grips them most.

Humans like to think of ourselves as highly rational beings.  We are certainly not.  If we are not careful, we are prisoners of our limbic systems, our _emotional reactions_ to things.  Which is why no amount of _information_ you throw at them is going to fix the problem.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> Humans like to think of ourselves as highly rational beings. We are certainly not. If we are not careful, we are prisoners of our limbic systems, our _emotional reactions_ to things. Which is why no amount of _information_ you throw at them is going to fix the problem.



To amplify this: difficult discussions like “To vax, or not to vax” involve entanglements of both rational and irrational beliefs, and as such, are _incredibly _difficult to handle, even with relevant training.

My Dad is an immunologist with a MPH.  I have trained in mediation, which is a multidisciplinary field that does involve aspects of human psychology.  And we have so far not convinced my antivax cousin ( and his kid & GF and _her_ child) of the need to be vaccinated.  Unless/until he and those in his inner circle are vaccinated, they’re not going to be able to visit us.  (And he really loves my Mom.)  I’m not sure a psychotherapist or medical consultant would be able to succeed where we have failed.

Now imagine having this kind of discussion without any training whatsoever, just your personal relationship with the other party to rely on.


----------



## Hussar

Horwath said:


> I only saw that at McDonald's. Probably because of global franchise decision.




Really? Here it’s standard in all restaurants.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Really? Here it’s standard in all restaurants.




In my area, they mostly didn't bother with plexiglass between tables, for a number of reasons (there were some really major questions about the effectiveness of those measures, for one thing)  Instead, most local towns made various changes in ordinances to allow restaurants to have more outdoor seating.


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> Dunedin? I've always wondered where the people of Atlantis(Numenor) landed in this world when the island sank.





 Settled by the Scots though. Anglicized Scottish name iirc.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Really? Here it’s standard in all restaurants.




 Supermarkets here and sometimes plastic windows at takeaway joints.


----------



## Zardnaar

J.Quondam said:


> Just because Zard posts all those lovely photos and videos of his locale, I thought I'd post a pic of what it's like in my neck of the woods.
> 
> 
> Spoiler: lovely landscape
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 152011
> 
> 
> It's pretty much like that for at _least_ 150 miles in every direction. Now, now don't be too jealous!
> 
> edit: To be fair, it _is_ pretty simple to social distance.




 Needs moar hills.


----------



## éxypnos

Glad I live where there have been no lock downs or any mandates.  Life has been normal for my family these last 2 years.


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> In my area, they mostly didn't bother with plexiglass between tables, for a number of reasons (there were some really major questions about the effectiveness of those measures, for one thing) Instead, most local towns made various changes in ordinances to allow restaurants to have more outdoor seating.




Here it’s a government sponsored thing. If you plexiglass up, restrict seating and whatnot, the gov subsidized the cost.


----------



## Zardnaar

éxypnos said:


> Glad I live where there have been no lock downs or any mandates.  Life has been normal for my family these last 2 years.




 What's the local death toll like? We passed 50 deaths not to long ago.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> Here it’s a government sponsored thing. If you plexiglass up, restrict seating and whatnot, the gov subsidized the cost.




Around here, there was no option to not restrict seating - there were mandates about what percentage of normal capacity restaurants could run at.  

But, even in the city itself, it was realized that having folks eat outside wasn't hard to do.  Certainly out in the suburbs, there's a lot of space that could be used.


----------



## Zardnaar

Parliament protests: Tragedy or farce?
					

Opinion - Watching the anti-mandate protests in Wellington over the past week, it has been impossible to ignore similarities to 1960s and '70s counterculture. But there are also some notable differences, Nick Bollinger writes.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Comparing current lot of protesters to 60's counter culture.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dannyalcatraz said:


> People HAVE had bad reactions to the vaccines.
> 
> But the numbers are minuscule compared to the numbers of people who have had bad reactions to COVID…



Speaking of which, an article on Charlie Munger’s hot take on vaccine hesitancy includes this bit of info:



> According to the CDC, there’s a minuscule 0.002% chance of the vaccine causing death while approximately 5 people per one million vaccinated in the U.S. have gone into anaphylactic shock. In comparison, according to the CDC, unvaccinated individuals are at least 14 more likely to die from COVID than someone who is fully vaccinated and 68 times more likely to die from the virus than someone who has received their booster shot.











						Exclusive: 98-year-old investing legend Charlie Munger 'appalled by the fear of vaccination' in the U.S.
					

Legendary investor Charlie Munger isn’t shy about his feelings towards people who won’t get the COVID vaccine.




					finance.yahoo.com


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> Supermarkets here and sometimes plastic windows at takeaway joints.



Well, supermarkets should have plastic barriers by default, no matter Covid.

It's a huge amount of contact for one person in a work day, and cashiers should not suffer at the hands(or better the mouth) of people that last time brushed their teeth somewhere around last Moon landing.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Horwath said:


> Well, supermarkets should have plastic barriers by default, no matter Covid.
> 
> It's a huge amount of contact for one person in a work day, and cashiers should not suffer at the hands(or better the mouth) of people that last time brushed their teeth somewhere around last Moon landing.



Or, as one checker recently posted online (paraphrasing), “Boobies are not wallets.”


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Or, as one checker recently posted online (paraphrasing), “Boobies are not wallets.”




Phone holders though.

 I got $50 cash at Christmas have $25 left. All electronic. Contact free with paywave.


----------



## Aeson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Or, as one checker recently posted online (paraphrasing), “Boobies are not wallets.”



It's like some women have a bra of holding. I'm waiting for a child's head to pop out, and the woman says "that's where that's been"

I don't understand the concept of using for storage. A magic trick? " Hey Rocky,  watch me pull a rabbit out of my boob."

Any women care to enlighten us? Here's your chance to womansplain something.


----------



## Zardnaar

Aeson said:


> It's like some women have a bra of holding. I'm waiting for a child's head to pop out, and the woman says "that's where that's been"
> 
> I don't understand the concept of using for storage. A magic trick? " Hey Rocky,  watch me pull a rabbit out of my boob."
> 
> Any women care to enlighten us? Here's your chance to womansplain something.




 Wife says it's due to lack of pockets on women's clothing. Similar reason for hand bags.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Wife says it's due to lack of pockets on women's clothing. Similar reason for hand bags.



Which is why my making of pockets for women was quite popular, for a while.


----------



## éxypnos

Zardnaar said:


> What's the local death toll like? We passed 50 deaths not to long ago.



Less than national average.  And, we are an international destination with daily non-stops from Europe to our tiny airport (about the size of Bob Hope Airport in Burbank, CA)  I think fresh air and happier living conditions has made for a healthier population.  Especially when you factor in that our local pop is of a higher average age than the US avg.  Put quit to the idea that lock downs and shutting businesses down helps with slowing the spread of the virus.


----------



## Mirtek

Zardnaar said:


> Wife says it's due to lack of pockets on women's clothing. Similar reason for hand bags.



I usually only hear the opposite. How poor men are limited to whatever they manage to fit into the four tight pockets of their Jeans while women can carry most of their household with them all the time 

Winter alleviates it a little due to extra pockets on coats and jackets  but during summer men are very limted with what they can carry.

Keys in right front pocket. Mobile in left Front pocket (better not buy a too big one). Small wallet in right back pocket and that's usually it.

No comparison to the dozends of things women produce from their handbag


----------



## Umbran

Aeson said:


> Here's your chance to womansplain something.




So, that's not a great way to put it.

"Mansplaining" is when a man steps in to explain things because they assume women don't know things.  The assumption and condescension are major elements of the issue.

If you are _asking_ for information, they aren't 'splaining.


----------



## billd91

Mirtek said:


> I usually only hear the opposite. How poor men are limited to whatever they manage to fit into the four tight pockets of their Jeans while women can carry most of their household with them all the time
> 
> Winter alleviates it a little due to extra pockets on coats and jackets  but during summer men are very limted with what they can carry.
> 
> Keys in right front pocket. Mobile in left Front pocket (better not buy a too big one). Small wallet in right back pocket and that's usually it.
> 
> No comparison to the dozends of things women produce from their handbag



This is a really weird through-the-rabbit-hole take on the topic. Women *have* to carry a handbag, in no small part, because they have such deficient pseudo-pockets (if you can't get your hand in it, it's not a real pocket, it's a pseudo-pocket). My wife and her friends constantly complain about their terrible pockets - and they're absolutely right. I've virtually never had a time when pockets have been an issue - at least not since the days of the tight jeans from the late 1970s/early 1980s.
Are men's clothes in Germany made with such deficient pockets?


----------



## Mannahnin

éxypnos said:


> Less than national average.  And, we are an international destination with daily non-stops from Europe to our tiny airport (about the size of Bob Hope Airport in Burbank, CA)  I think fresh air and happier living conditions has made for a healthier population.  Especially when you factor in that our local pop is of a higher average age than the US avg.



That's good.  Sounds like you've got multiple factors working well for you.  Here in New Hampshire we had similar; despite inferior rates of vaccination compared to our neighbor states and less use of lockdown and distancing protocols, we were still pretty lightly hit by the first two significant waves.  Sadly, the third wave hit us hard, I suspect in part due to people getting complacent after we got off lightly on the first two.



éxypnos said:


> Put quit to the idea that lock downs and shutting businesses down helps with slowing the spread of the virus.



I think we'd need significantly more data to be confident about that.  You may be mistaking correlation for causation.  We do have a Kiwi posting in the thread, and their experience is quite the opposite.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> This is a really weird through-the-rabbit-hole take on the topic. Women *have* to carry a handbag, in no small part, because they have such deficient pseudo-pockets (if you can't get your hand in it, it's not a real pocket, it's a pseudo-pocket).




Not to mention that a man can get away with wallet, keys, and cell phone, but our culture puts expectations on women that necessitate carrying a lot of other things.


----------



## éxypnos

Mannahnin said:


> That's good.  Sounds like you've got multiple factors working well for you.  Here in New Hampshire we had similar; despite inferior rates of vaccination compared to our neighbor states and less use of lockdown and distancing protocols, we were still pretty lightly hit by the first two significant waves.  Sadly, the third wave hit us hard, I suspect in part due to people getting complacent after we got off lightly on the first two.
> 
> 
> I think we'd need significantly more data to be confident about that.  You may be mistaking correlation for causation.  We do have a Kiwi posting in the thread, and their experience is quite the opposite.




No. Africa is the large test bed that proves my point as being correct.  The "scientists" call it the COVID conundrum. No real population COVID controls and FAR lower infection rates.  I called it in the 3rd month and was right.


----------



## éxypnos

éxypnos said:


> Less than national average.  And, we are an international destination with daily non-stops from Europe to our tiny airport (about the size of Bob Hope Airport in Burbank, CA)  I think fresh air and happier living conditions has made for a healthier population.  Especially when you factor in that our local pop is of a higher average age than the US avg.  Put quit to the idea that lock downs and shutting businesses down helps with slowing the spread of the virus.



 Actually the death rate per capita hasn't changed by >1% from pre Covid years.  Goes to show ya.


----------



## Mannahnin

éxypnos said:


> No. Africa is the large test bed that proves my point as being correct.  The "scientists" call it the COVID conundrum. No real population COVID controls and FAR lower infection rates.  I called it in the 3rd month and was right.



I don't think that's accurate.  Which parts of Africa are you referring to?  









						Coronavirus in Africa: Five reasons why Covid-19 has been less deadly than elsewhere
					

The continent of a billion people has had fewer deaths than the UK despite the generally fragile health systems.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Mannahnin

éxypnos said:


> Actually the death rate per capita hasn't changed by >1% from pre Covid years.  Goes to show ya.



Where?


----------



## Umbran

éxypnos said:


> The "scientists"




Is that really what you want to start with?



éxypnos said:


> No real population COVID controls and FAR lower infection rates.




I mean, you're absolutely incorrect that there's be no real population covid controls in Africa.  Africa has rather more experience with disease outbreaks than most of the rest of the world, and they've been using that to control the spread of the disease - at a cost of forcing another 40 million people into extreme poverty with their containment measures.  Lockdowns and other restrictions have been common, and coordinated across the continent.

There is no mystery.  The problem is that this approach isn't sustainable.


----------



## Zardnaar

And what's Afticas testing like. No testing no cases look we're fine. 

 Africa advantage is also uoinger population than OECD types. Larger families and less old people proportionally.


----------



## éxypnos

Umbran said:


> Is that really what you want to start with?
> 
> 
> 
> I mean, you're absolutely incorrect that there's be no real population covid controls in Africa.  Africa has rather more experience with disease outbreaks than most of the rest of the world, and they've been using that to control the spread of the disease - at a cost of forcing another 40 million people into extreme poverty with their containment measures.  Lockdowns and other restrictions have been common, and coordinated across the continent.
> 
> There is no mystery.  The problem is that this approach isn't sustainable.



go study why scientists are calling it the Africa conundrum.  I'm not going to argue minutiae.  The data is in and analyzed and published


----------



## éxypnos

Mannahnin said:


> I don't think that's accurate.  Which parts of Africa are you referring to?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus in Africa: Five reasons why Covid-19 has been less deadly than elsewhere
> 
> 
> The continent of a billion people has had fewer deaths than the UK despite the generally fragile health systems.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com



Yes.  It has completely turned Western Gov't actions on their head, showing them as the wrong way to manage the situation.  Many are emotionally invested in lock downs and such.  Weird but true.


----------



## Umbran

éxypnos said:


> go study why scientists are calling it the Africa conundrum.  I'm not going to argue minutiae.  The data is in and analyzed and published




That's not how discussion works.  If you are going to make an assertion, you should be ready to back it up when asked.  Passing research onto others says to us that you don't have a solid foundation for what you are saying.

And, two things:

1) What I was saying comes from publications of the World Health Organization, and the scientific journal Nature - I double checked them before I spoke.  









						Two years of COVID-19 in Africa: lessons for the world
					

Africa urgently needs to guarantee its own health security.




					www.nature.com
				








__





						Africa on track to control COVID-19 pandemic in 2022
					

Almost two years after Africa identified its first case of COVID-19 (14 February 2020), the World Health Organization (WHO) finds that, if current trends continue, the continent can control the pandemic in 2022. However, WHO warned that continued vigilance is key.




					www.afro.who.int
				




2) What comes up when one searches on "The African Conundrum" isn't about covid, but a book about the overall developmental hole Africa is in, where it came from, and how they can get out of it.









						The African Conundrum: Rethinking the Trajectories of Historical, Cultural, Philosophical and Developmental Experiences of Africa|Paperback
					

The African conundrum... is rooted out of the historical, philosophical and cultural bastardisation, imbalances and inequalities which many post-colonial African governments have always sought to address, though with varying degrees of success, since the 1960s. Lamentably, this African...




					www.barnesandnoble.com
				




When I finally do get to something covid-related, some pages deep in Google, it is a paper discussing how the low covid morbidity in Africa can be explained by the age distribution in sub-saharan Africa:  to wit, the continent is full of young people, who don't get as severe disease.  Again, not a lot of mystery there.









						The Conundrum of Low COVID-19 Mortality Burden in sub-Saharan Africa: Myth or Reality? - PubMed
					

The demographic age structure of sub-Saharan Africa contributes significantly to the low morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 compared to other regions in the world.




					pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				




So, basically, when I do study your point, I find it is not supported.  If you want to be convincing, you're going to have to bring your own information, from reputable sources, to the table.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mannahnin said:


> I don't think that's accurate.  Which parts of Africa are you referring to?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coronavirus in Africa: Five reasons why Covid-19 has been less deadly than elsewhere
> 
> 
> The continent of a billion people has had fewer deaths than the UK despite the generally fragile health systems.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com



IOW, as has been said again and again, public health measures are historically more effective at saving lives than pharmacological ones.


----------



## Umbran

éxypnos said:


> Yes.  It has completely turned Western Gov't actions on their head, showing them as the wrong way to manage the situation.  Many are emotionally invested in lock downs and such.  Weird but true.




Except, the very first item in that article is how lockdowns were used in Africa!

_"So, right from the beginning, most African governments took drastic measures to try and slow the spread of the virus.

Public health measures - including avoiding handshakes, frequent hand-washing, social distancing and wearing of face masks - were swiftly introduced.

Some countries - like  Lesotho - acted even before a single case was reported.

It declared an emergency and closed schools on 18 March, and went into a three-week lockdown about 10 days later in unison with many other southern Africa states."_

If anything, the takeaway is that lockdowns and strict public health measures work, and that Western nations needed more of them, not less.


----------



## éxypnos

Umbran said:


> Except, the very first item in that article is how lockdowns were used in Africa!



But not ANYWHERE close to the lockdowns in the West,  Hence the term, African conundrum per the Western medical and science community.  I'm not going to argue with the doctors and scientists unless I do my own scientfic study and it contradicts their.  That just isn't how to conduct science.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

éxypnos said:


> Yes.  It has completely turned Western Gov't actions on their head, showing them as the wrong way to manage the situation.  Many are emotionally invested in lock downs and such.  Weird but true.



Did you read Mannahnin’s link?  They pointed out that African nations had several things that helped them weather this as they have.

First, they had a MUCH higher compliance with orders to mask up, improve hygiene (via hand washing, avoiding handshakes), etc. There is no significant pushback on those public health edicts.





The perceived poverty of their healthcare infrastructure worked to their advantage because they have almost NO elder care facilities which concentrate the most vulnerable into close proximity- an ideal situation for viruses like COVID.

Another way in which their “substandard” healthcare system actually worked in their favor is that their population demographics skew towards the young.  The typical patients who account for most of the COVID casualties in the developed world are already dead; there’s a smaller percentage of people with comorbidities exposing them to greater risk from C19.  IOW, _other _healthcare crises have already winnowed out a lot of the more vulnerable.

Etc.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

éxypnos said:


> But not ANYWHERE close to the lockdowns in the West,  Hence the African conundrum per the Western medicaland science community.



The lockdowns were not as strict because people complied voluntarily. See above chart.

Also:


> Several West African states - which battled the world's worst ever outbreak of Ebola from 2013-16 - had also mastered the public health measures that have been used to prevent Covid-19, including isolating the infected, tracing their contacts and then getting them quarantined while they get tested.



While Americans (and others) were actively resisting contact tracing/quarantine efforts, Africans were actually helping public officials get ahead of the infection’s progress.


----------



## éxypnos

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Did you read Mannahnin’s link?  They pointed out that African nations had several things that helped them weather this as they have.



No, I read a WHO study.


----------



## Umbran

éxypnos said:


> No, I read a WHO study.




Yes.  From the World Health Organization, the link I provided above, dated one week ago:

_“Against the odds, including huge inequities in access to vaccination, we’ve weathered the COVID-19 storm with resilience and determination, informed by Africa’s long history and experience with controlling outbreaks. But COVID-19 has cost us dearly, with more than 242 000 lives lost and tremendous damage to our economies.”

According to the World Bank, the COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to have pushed up to 40 million people into extreme poverty on the continent, and every month of delay in lifting containment measures is estimated to cost Africa US$ 13.8 billion in lost gross domestic product._

This rather questions the idea that their lockdowns were not long-lasting, as this is a current article, and they talk about delay in lifting them in terms of months - in other words, these practices are still in use.


----------



## éxypnos

Nope.  Not the one I'm talking about.  It was one I read at Pfizer in my friends office.  He is an immunologist there.


----------



## éxypnos

Mannahnin said:


> Where?



the city I live in


----------



## Umbran

éxypnos said:


> Nope.  Not the one I'm talking about.  It was one I read at Pfizer in my friends office.  He is an immunologist there.




How about you go and call your immunologist friend, and get a source, and a link that we can read, and then we can talk about it.


----------



## éxypnos

Umbran said:


> How about you go and call your immunologist friend, and get a source, and a link that we can read, and then we can talk about it.



  I read a paper version in his office. (well parts of it and the exec summary as it was over 200 pages long.) Its a report sent to the companies working on vaccines.  YUa know, most stuff is NOT on the interweb tubes.  Something to remember.


----------



## J.Quondam

éxypnos said:


> I read a paper version in his office. (well parts of it and the exec summary as it was over 200 pages long.) Its a report sent to the companies working on vaccines.  YUa know, most stuff is NOT on the interweb tubes.  Something to remember.



Aww. I'd have hoped a poster calling itself "éxypnos" would come up with a better excuse than that. Disappointing.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

éxypnos said:


> I read a paper version in his office. (well parts of it and the exec summary as it was over 200 pages long.) Its a report sent to the companies working on vaccines.  YUa know, most stuff is NOT on the interweb tubes.  Something to remember.




Even if it isn’t available online, you could claim the proof is in “Name of Journal, Issue N, Date, by Researchers X, Y, & Z”.  Some of us have access to such things.  (_Raises hand- Dad’s an immunologist._)  Or which company.  Or the contact info for your source and who might be able to talk about it.

Because regardless of what is or isn’t available on the internet, “secret proof“ of one’s position is of equal value to supporting your position as “no proof at all.”

Until then?


----------



## GreyLord

Woke up with Symptoms this morning.

Vaxxed and boosted.

Trying to figure out where or how I got it as I haven't gone out much recently. I could only figure it was my shopping trip either on Monday or last week Thursday, or I got it via one of the packages I got in the mail.

Symptoms have disappeared right now, so that's a good sign.  Means that even if I get Covid, the vaccines work and is not even half as bad as it could be.


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> Around here, there was no option to not restrict seating - there were mandates about what percentage of normal capacity restaurants could run at.
> 
> But, even in the city itself, it was realized that having folks eat outside wasn't hard to do. Certainly out in the suburbs, there's a lot of space that could be used.




I can see that. A lot less of an option when you’re as densely populated as Japan. Most places have nowhere to eat outside. Heck, summertime is over 40 degrees here. Outdoor eating is just not a thing.


----------



## Hussar

On a side note, the whole pandemic has rapidly forced changes in pretty much every aspect of retail here. 

Pre-Covid, cashless systems were few and far between. Paying with a debit card barely existed and many places, including large chain restaurants didn’t take credit cards. 

Now, pretty much every store or restaurant has a cash register that you put the money in yourself and it spits out your change, every store/convenience store/ public space has plexiglass dividers including libraries and any public building. Cashless systems like Apple Pay and the like are now pretty much universal. 

It’s to the point where I’m surprised if the cashier has to handle money at all.


----------



## Zardnaar

We've had eftpos (Electronic Funds Transfer at Point of Payment) since 1989 or so. Learnt about it in 1991 high school used it a couple of years later. 

 I've spent $25 cash since Christmas.


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> Wife says it's due to lack of pockets on women's clothing. Similar reason for hand bags.



My favorite is when my wife's phone is tucked away in there and someone calls with one of the verbal ring tones she has set up.  I'm like, "Hey honey, it's talking."


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> My favorite is when my wife's phone is tucked away in there and someone calls with one of the verbal ring tones she has set up.  I'm like, "Hey honey, it's talking."




 No comment. Mine says it's convenient. 









						Dunedin students face criticism, discpline over large parties during Covid-19 outreak
					

Dunedin police have slammed those who organised and attended a large party in the city's student quarter last night, with Covid-19 cases now confirmed in the community.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Students not obeying the rules locally. They can be biited out of the university for it though.


----------



## Thomas Shey

I tended to strongly prefer using cash for small transactions prior to the pandemic, but pretty early on, locally it became impossible to find places to make change, so I've switched over entirely to cards for anything but the few places that won't take anything but cash.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hmmnn

 Hmmnn pt 2. 









						Live: Police Association president says it would be an unreasonable to smash windows and drag people out of protest
					

Police Association president says 120 arrests last week “achieved nothing except doubling the crowd" at the Wellington protest.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> No comment. Mine says it's convenient.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dunedin students face criticism, discpline over large parties during Covid-19 outreak
> 
> 
> Dunedin police have slammed those who organised and attended a large party in the city's student quarter last night, with Covid-19 cases now confirmed in the community.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rnz.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Students not obeying the rules locally. They can be biited out of the university for it though.



wow.

students having a party, who could have foreseen that?


----------



## Zardnaar

Horwath said:


> wow.
> 
> students having a party, who could have foreseen that?




 Problem is they do mega parties 1000+. 

 Or street parties.


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> Problem is they do mega parties 1000+.
> 
> Or street parties.



when the bars were completely closed due to lockdown in late '20/early '21, people here we gathering on the streets in thousands.


----------



## Mannahnin

Hussar said:


> I can see that. A lot less of an option when you’re as densely populated as Japan. Most places have nowhere to eat outside. Heck, summertime is over 40 degrees here. Outdoor eating is just not a thing.



It's been big in every city here in the US I've visited since the pandemic.  Here in Manchester , Boston, Philadelphia, etc.  Parking has become somewhat more limited as cities have facilitated restaurants to install outdoor seating on the sidewalk and street, often converting what are normally parking spaces.


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> Symptoms have disappeared right now, so that's a good sign.  Means that even if I get Covid, the vaccines work and is not even half as bad as it could be.




Well, vaccines be darned, here's hoping it is/was something completely harmless.


----------



## Rabulias

Hussar said:


> It’s to the point where I’m surprised if the cashier has to handle money at all.





Zardnaar said:


> I've spent $25 cash since Christmas.



I have been using my credit card/electronic payment almost exclusively these last two years. Pre-pandemic I used to regularly get cash out of the ATM, $100 every three weeks or so. I now have about $10.00 in cash left from the last $100 I withdrew in March of 2020.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Rabulias said:


> I have been using my credit card/electronic payment almost exclusively these last two years. Pre-pandemic I used to regularly get cash out of the ATM, $100 every three weeks or so. I now have about $10.00 in cash left from the last $100 I withdrew in March of 2020.




I had some random ones sitting around in the car for months.


----------



## éxypnos

Umbran said:


> Is that really what you want to start with?




Sure. Why, do you have a problem with science?


----------



## Umbran

éxypnos said:


> Sure. Why, do you have a problem with science?




I have no problem with science.  I'm a physicist myself.  I have a problem with putting quotes around the word - "scientists" - as you did, as that is usually used to denote some question as to the validity of the term.


----------



## éxypnos

Umbran said:


> I have no problem with science.



From your reaction it seemed you did.  The limitations of posts as communication


----------



## Ryujin

Mannahnin said:


> It's been big in every city here in the US I've visited since the pandemic.  Here in Manchester , Boston, Philadelphia, etc.  Parking has become somewhat more limited as cities have facilitated restaurants to install outdoor seating on the sidewalk and street, often converting what are normally parking spaces.



In Toronto, one of the councilors has been pushing for Yonge Street to be turned into a pedestrian mall, for decades now. A little background: Yonge Street apparently has the record for being the longest street in the world. It starts at the shores of Lake Ontario, bisects the City of Toronto, and runs north for more than 1800 Kms. It is a major artery in the city. When lanes are lost due to building construction, traffic backups become heavy. Areas have now had lanes closed so that restaurants can have "patio space" on the street. I don't see this councilor rolling that back any time soon. In fact she seems to be slathering at the mouth over pushing through her dream of a "walkable city."


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Streets being turned into pedestrian malls can be quite nice for a city - but NOT a major arterial route! That's insane.

We have a lot of restaurant patios on the sidewalks/parking spots now too. I like them, for the most part.


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> Streets being turned into pedestrian malls can be quite nice for a city - but NOT a major arterial route! That's insane.
> 
> We have a lot of restaurant patios on the sidewalks/parking spots now too. I like them, for the most part.



I work less than 2 Kms north of the south end of Yonge Street. There have been many times that it has taken me more than 45 minutes to drive from work to the lakeshore.


----------



## Ryujin

And FINALLY we have a little action in Ottawa. The second of the main organizers, Tamara Lich (No, I didn't make that up) was arrested last night. I can't post about her affiliations, due to posting rules, but it's a simple Google search away and will explain much. They have made more arrests today and it seems like they'll be moving on a bunch of the protesters at Byward Market, a huge tourist attraction, in the near future.

Now streaming live on the CBC News website: https://www.cbc.ca/news


----------



## Mannahnin

Converting downtown zones into primarily walking use can be great, but yeah, you need to do other accompanying infrastructure work to make sure other traffic is properly accommodated.


----------



## Zardnaar

Some numbers here. 

 Feb 10 300 cases yesterday 1900. Daily records amount being broken every other day. 

 Original outbreak March-May 2020 1500 odd cases total 23 deaths. 

 Vaccine rates approaching 95% and 50% for boosters there's currently 0 in ICU and last death was several weeks ago. With more daily cases than total cases in original outbreak mostly omicron though. 

 Approx 30 deaths August 2020-Now. Deltas also lingering around technically that's been in the community since August.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A collection of COVID research headlines on Reuters:









						Antibodies induced by mRNA shots improve for months; blood cells damaged by COVID cause blood vessel problems
					

The following is a summary of some recent studies on COVID-19. They include research that warrants further study to corroborate the findings and that has yet to be certified by peer review.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Doing our daily walk in town. Grabbed coffee at one of our favorite places. We're only ones here it's early. 


 

 Got some protesters locally.

 Population 120k 8 tents or so. They're not smashing the joint up anyway. Cops locally are very mellow the local 4:20 crowd have had protests and puff ups inside the cop shop. Arrests 0 for smoking pot inside the police station. 

 No mildly moist bus tickets but it's started to rain.


----------



## Baron Opal II

Zardnaar said:


> We've had eftpos (Electronic Funds Transfer at Point of Payment) since 1989 or so. Learnt about it in 1991 high school used it a couple of years later.
> 
> I've spent $25 cash since Christmas.



Not strictly Covid related, but I don't use much cash ever anymore.

A guy came up to me the other day asking if I could spare a couple bucks, and I realized I haven't touched money in 2-3 months. I didn't even have change in the cupholder of my car.


----------



## Ryujin

There have been more than 60 arrests made in Ottawa. Funny thing is that's not a lot, given that there seemed to be thousands involved. Some have been hiding behind their children, daring police to do something, but it seems like the vast majority are starting to slowly move out. It's almost as if once there are actual consequences, people rethink their actions....


----------



## Thomas Shey

Baron Opal II said:


> Not strictly Covid related, but I don't use much cash ever anymore.
> 
> A guy came up to me the other day asking if I could spare a couple bucks, and I realized I haven't touched money in 2-3 months. I didn't even have change in the cupholder of my car.




Between a number of us that seem to have hit this state the last couple years, I wonder how much COVID has impacted this trend?


----------



## Zardnaar

Baron Opal II said:


> Not strictly Covid related, but I don't use much cash ever anymore.
> 
> A guy came up to me the other day asking if I could spare a couple bucks, and I realized I haven't touched money in 2-3 months. I didn't even have change in the cupholder of my car.




 Haven't used much cash since 1996. Paywave is in most places now so you don't even need to use a pin number on your card now.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Ryujin said:


> I work less than 2 Kms north of the south end of Yonge Street. There have been many times that it has taken me more than 45 minutes to drive from work to the lakeshore.



Hey, if it were a mall, you'd have been able to walk that in less time!


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> Hey, if it were a mall, you'd have been able to walk that in less time!



I was once passed by co-workers who were walking to Union Station, to get their trains. They waved to me at Front Street.

And there pretty much is a "mall" that you can walk in, almost all the way down to Lakeshore Boulevard. It's called "The Path" and it runs below Toronto's downtown office buildings.

_EDIT_ - Correction: it now runs *past* Lakeshore.



			https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/8d9e-path-map-feb-2021.pdf


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Breaking-ish news:



> *Conclusion and Relevance*  Among adults with mild COVID-19, a 5-day course of ivermectin, compared with placebo, did not significantly improve the time to resolution of symptoms. The findings do not support the use of ivermectin for treatment of mild COVID-19, although larger trials may be needed to understand the effects of ivermectin on other clinically relevant outcomes.












						Effect of Ivermectin on Time to Resolution of Symptoms Among Adults With Mild COVID-19
					

This randomized trial compares the effects of ivermectin vs placebo on time to symptom resolution within 21 days among patients with mild COVID-19.




					jamanetwork.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Breaking-ish news:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Effect of Ivermectin on Time to Resolution of Symptoms Among Adults With Mild COVID-19
> 
> 
> This randomized trial compares the effects of ivermectin vs placebo on time to symptom resolution within 21 days among patients with mild COVID-19.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> jamanetwork.com




Shocked I tells ya shocked. 

 Um my beer based diet has kept Covid at bay um er buy your cure from zardsbeercorp.co.nz. Guranteed to work on  Sunday the 29th of February any year ending with a 7!!. Get urs now just make the cheque out to Central American Spiritual Healers. Or just use our acronym CASH.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Shocked I tells ya shocked.
> 
> Um my beer based diet has kept Covid at bay um er buy your cure from zardsbeercorp.co.nz. Guranteed to work on  Sunday the 29th of February any year ending with a 7!!. Get urs now just make the cheque out to Central American Spiritual Healers. Or just use our acronym CASH.




"What does that do?"
"It keeps the alligators away."
"But there are no alligators around here!"
"See?  It's working!"


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> "What does that do?"
> "It keeps the alligators away."
> "But there are no alligators around here!"
> "See?  It's working!"




 Exactly!!. 

   Also keeps alligators, snakes, lions and tigers away.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Exactly!!.
> 
> Also keeps alligators, snakes, lions and tigers away.




So, what you're saying is, that beer is kinda nasty?


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> So, what you're saying is, that beer is kinda nasty?




 Na there's none of that stuff here either. Nothing particularly carnivorous or poisonous here. 

  Most of the beer is not bad, Baltika 9 is a bit rough (8% 1/4 gallon can) but the worst one I've had is a Ukrainian one followed by a Norwegian one.  Same Ukrainian company different beer the other one wasn't to bad.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> So, what you're saying is, that beer is kinda nasty?



Just the IPAs and American lagers are nasty and keep the bears and gators away.  But the millennials drink the former, boomers drink the later and college students drink both, leaving the good stuff for us Gen Xers.


----------



## payn

Baron Opal II said:


> Not strictly Covid related, but I don't use much cash ever anymore.
> 
> A guy came up to me the other day asking if I could spare a couple bucks, and I realized I haven't touched money in 2-3 months. I didn't even have change in the cupholder of my car.



"Sorry man I dont have any cash..."
"thats ok bro, I got venmo..."


----------



## payn

Cadence said:


> Just the IPAs and American lagers are nasty and keep the bears and gators away.  But the millennials drink the former, boomers drink the later and college students drink both, leaving the good stuff for us Gen Xers.



Which is what? Sour beer?


----------



## Cadence

payn said:


> Which is what? Sour beer?



Stouts, porters, and weizens.

Although someone is apparently trying to sell  lots of sours based on today's run to the store!  I've never seen so many at one time before.


----------



## Baron Opal II

payn said:


> Which is what? Sour beer?



There are more kinds of ale than IPAs; reds, amber, brown. A full rainbow of tasty, non-horribly bitter options.


----------



## payn

Oh, you mean beer for children.


----------



## Cadence

payn said:


> Oh, you mean beer for children.



To let this one get back on topic...








						Virtual Happy Hour (Brews & Spirits, Pics & Reviews)
					

I traditionally do a Friday Happy Hour with a friend in person. Since the "lockdown" its been twice a week on-line, we'll see how it goes once things open up.  Anyway, I'm thinking pictures of brews and brief reviews (and maybe the snacks once its back to being out some place).  I'll only be...




					www.enworld.org
				




Although my shopping trip this AM had me buy some extras for the first in person MtG group get together in aeons that I'm going to tomorrow.  All of us are vaxxed and boosted, a few of us four had it recently (caught from work or kids at school), I'm the oldest by a decade, and the local numbers are about a week away from being at the before-Christmas levels.


----------



## Baron Opal II

Mandatory masking ends in Oregon by March 31. Washington by March 21?

Official Words


----------



## GreyLord

Umbran said:


> Well, vaccines be darned, here's hoping it is/was something completely harmless.




Despite not having anymore symptoms after those few hours, I've been isolating as per guidance for at least 5 days (and then 5 days of wearing a mask after that).

Thus far, just been sitting in a room watching Big Bang Theory.  I think I can get through the entire series before isolation is over.

PS:  Despite having tons of time to watch TV now...isolation is kind of driving me bonkers with how boring it is.  I've been isolating in one room of the house so I stay away from everyone else as much as possible, so can't do as much as I normally do...except stick to my room and watch TV.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

GreyLord said:


> Despite not having anymore symptoms after those few hours, I've been isolating as per guidance for at least 5 days (and then 5 days of wearing a mask after that).
> 
> Thus far, just been sitting in a room watching Big Bang Theory.  I think I can get through the entire series before isolation is over.
> 
> PS:  Despite having tons of time to watch TV now...isolation is kind of driving me bonkers with how boring it is.  I've been isolating in one room of the house so I stay away from everyone else as much as possible, so can't do as much as I normally do...except stick to my room and watch TV.




I've done that a couple of times in the past two years. It sucks. (And the better you feel, the worse it is.)


----------



## GreyLord

FitzTheRuke said:


> I've done that a couple of times in the past two years. It sucks. (And the better you feel, the worse it is.)




Well, right now I feel perfectly fine.  

I had symptoms that came on pretty quick for the first few hours, went to sleep (and had a booming headache and fever at that point) and then they went away and I've been fine since.  

Vaccine's work...and I'd prefer feeling great to what it could have been, but maaaan...I am bored.  I just want to go out and hang out with the others in the rest of the house, but I know that I should not and so I'm isolating as per the current guidance.  They've been having video game championships without me.  Also I KNOW they've gotten on my gaming computer while I've been in isolation.  Big Bang Theory is fine at least...massive marathon on my part.


----------



## payn

GreyLord said:


> Despite not having anymore symptoms after those few hours, I've been isolating as per guidance for at least 5 days (and then 5 days of wearing a mask after that).
> 
> Thus far, just been sitting in a room watching Big Bang Theory.  I think I can get through the entire series before isolation is over.
> 
> PS:  Despite having tons of time to watch TV now...isolation is kind of driving me bonkers with how boring it is.  I've been isolating in one room of the house so I stay away from everyone else as much as possible, so can't do as much as I normally do...except stick to my room and watch TV.



I feel ya. Back in the fall, I had super mild symptoms but could get out and ride my bike. Now in the dead of winter id be tearing down the walls.


----------



## Zardnaar

Social distancing no mask required. 




 New state highway. 400km to Edoras/Rohan.


----------



## payn

Zardnaar said:


> Social distancing no mask required.
> 
> View attachment 152159
> 
> New state highway. 400km to Edoras/Rohan.
> View attachment 152160



Thats what a state highway looks like in NZ?


----------



## Zardnaar

payn said:


> Thats what a state highway looks like in NZ?



 One of our new ones. Rohan horses chew it up a bit. 



  Old highway.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Baron Opal II said:


> There are more kinds of ale than IPAs; reds, amber, brown. A full rainbow of tasty, non-horribly bitter options.



So you’re from the…_Planet of the IPAs_?


----------



## Zardnaar

Queens got it. 









						The Queen tests positive for Covid
					

She has mild symptoms and expects to continue "light duties" at Windsor, Buckingham Palace says.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Baron Opal II

Dannyalcatraz said:


> So you’re from the…_Planet of the IPAs_?



You're killin' me Smalls  Danny...


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Queens got it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Queen tests positive for Covid
> 
> 
> She has mild symptoms and expects to continue "light duties" at Windsor, Buckingham Palace says.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com




Punctuation matters:

The Queen's got it:




Queens got it:


----------



## Aeson

Or queens'


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Queens got it.



_*NOOOOOOOO!


*_


----------



## Mirtek

Just in case you forgot that Games Workshop is based in britain: https://i.redd.it/gywiieh6o0j81.png

I guess revealing that Westminster Abbey actually sits on top of an Emperor Class Titan would go a long way to deter Putin from trying anything funny in the Ukraine


----------



## Zardnaar

Baron Opal II said:


> There are more kinds of ale than IPAs; reds, amber, brown. A full rainbow of tasty, non-horribly bitter options.




 IPAs taking over where you are?

 Super popular here but they crowd out some of the other options. Craft beer section full of IPA variants. I don't mind them but prefer other stuff.


----------



## Mannahnin

Zardnaar said:


> IPAs taking over where you are?
> 
> Super popular here but they crowd out some of the other options. Craft beer section full of IPA variants. I don't mind them but prefer other stuff.



It's the same in the US.  IPAs have been a really predominant part of the craft beer offerings for years and years now.  Any bar or restaurant with craft beer will have multiple IPA options, but any other given category is less reliable.  People have been joking about it for at least a decade.


----------



## Baron Opal II

Zardnaar said:


> IPAs taking over where you are?
> 
> Super popular here but they crowd out some of the other options. Craft beer section full of IPA variants. I don't mind them but prefer other stuff.



In the worst way; it's like a fad that won't go away.

If you want an IPA, Triple IPA, Special IPA, Exotic IPA, IPA with hops genetically engineered from the local university, Stout, Porter, or Sour beer, you're good. There has been an explosion of creativity and variety on the cider front. Everyone who avoid beer due to gluten intolerance / dislike / whatever loves the ciders. My preference, sadly lies in beer that is not sweet, bitter, or sour*. So, any ale that isn't an IPA. Bass and Newcastle Brown, for example. (Mmm.. Bass...)

* My daughter likes sour beer. Her and her wasband bought us a growler of her favorite. I had to spit it out into the sink, it was so bad.


----------



## CleverNickName

Baron Opal II said:


> Mandatory masking ends in Oregon by March 31. Washington by March 21?
> 
> Official Words



(sigh)  What could possibly go wrong?


----------



## Zardnaar

Baron Opal II said:


> In the worst way; it's like a fad that won't go away.
> 
> If you want an IPA, Triple IPA, Special IPA, Exotic IPA, IPA with hops genetically engineered from the local university, Stout, Porter, or Sour beer, you're good. There has been an explosion of creativity and variety on the cider front. Everyone who avoid beer due to gluten intolerance / dislike / whatever loves the ciders. My preference, sadly lies in beer that is not sweet, bitter, or sour*. So, any ale that isn't an IPA. Bass and Newcastle Brown, for example. (Mmm.. Bass...)
> 
> * My daughter likes sour beer. Her and her wasband bought us a growler of her favorite. I had to spit it out into the sink, it was so bad.




 Similar here. Had a decent porter the other day. 

 Not a fan of sour beers though. I can drink IPAs depending on the type/brand. Some just smell like fruit and are bitter though.

 They're popular so whatever floats the boat.


----------



## payn

One thing is for sure, the English bitter style is criminally underrated.


----------



## Zardnaar

payn said:


> One thing is for sure, the English bitter style is criminally underrated.




 I prefer APAs especially the hazy ones. 

 Local place has one called Nectar of the Gods 6.2% iirc and is infused with apricot and mango.









						Nectar Of The Gods
					

Taproom Series #4 - Nectar Of The Gods Apricot Mango Hazy IPA If we had to pick a favourite Greek God to embody our latest Taproom Series release, it’d definitely be Dionysus whose remit includes parties, fruitfulness, festival and general debauchery.




					www.goodgeorge.kiwi.nz
				




 6.5%.

 Derp it's an IPA but more like an apa imho.


----------



## payn

Zardnaar said:


> I prefer APAs especially vthe hazy on.
> 
> Local place has one called Fruit of the Gods 6.2% iirc and is infused with apricot and peach or nectarine iirc.



I know this is now an_ I hate IPA_ thread, but Y'all got some great hops down there in NZ. 
Kiwi Express IPA brew kit.


----------



## Zardnaar

payn said:


> I know this is now an_ I hate IPA_ thread, but Y'all got some great hops down there in NZ.
> Kiwi Express IPA brew kit.




 Yup they're not bad. Lots of microclimates here. Some are grown on the west coast (rainforest 2000+ mm of rain per annum) and Nelson are (Mediterranean type climate). 

 Been legal to brew your own for decades local brewery was doing the craft beers back in the 90's. 

 This one's my favorite of his range. 









						Emerson's 'Orange Roughy' Hazy Tropical Pale Ale, 6 x 330ml
					

The world's greatest beer according to VOL buyer Paul - an absolute must try




					www.vineonline.co.nz
				




 Hazy IPAs not bad either. 










						Hazed & Confused 		 |  		Emersons
					

Cloudy IPA




					emersons.co.nz
				




 Booze consumption went up in lockdown. Went way down in December lol.


----------



## Baron Opal II

payn said:


> I know this is now an_ I hate IPA_ thread, but Y'all got some great hops down there in NZ.
> Kiwi Express IPA brew kit.



Oh, IPAs are fine and the citrusy ones go great with fish.

I'd just like an ale that isn't one with some regularity. (Not that I can't find one, and really, this is a good problem to have.)


----------



## Baron Opal II

CleverNickName said:


> (sigh)  What could possibly go wrong?



Well, less than other places, it seems.

The mask removal is tied to cases, really. We've had far less issues probably due to our low population density and other factors. I'm in the PNW - Pacific NorthWest of the US.

For the most part, everyone who is going to get vaccinated has been. There is a lot of mask fatigue across our population regardless of political affinity. Many people, again across sub-cultures and political concerns, are asking "when does it end?" While we have just as many people in the hospital they are much less seriously ill with Omicron than with Delta. Delta scared a number of fence-sitters to get vaccinated, but there are still a significant number that won't. And now, case numbers are declining rapidly. It may be a necessary social release valve.

And, if there is another spike after, then we handle that as it comes.


----------



## Umbran

Asides are fine and all, but unless you're drinking Covid-19 Pale Ale, maybe you should take this beer stuff over to the appropriate thread:









						Virtual Happy Hour (Brews & Spirits, Pics & Reviews)
					

I traditionally do a Friday Happy Hour with a friend in person. Since the "lockdown" its been twice a week on-line, we'll see how it goes once things open up.  Anyway, I'm thinking pictures of brews and brief reviews (and maybe the snacks once its back to being out some place).  I'll only be...




					www.enworld.org


----------



## Zardnaar

Coppers not willing to use the required force to break up protests. 









						Most police support approach not to use force at COVID-19 anti-mandate protest - Police Association president Chris Cahill
					

"The idea that you could go in there and use force to remove those protesters, they all rejected."




					www.newshub.co.nz
				




Two weeks on. Not sure they would no how last large scale protests were 1981.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

It's been a rough week. Thursday morning, a good friend of mine had to go into the hospital. He had been battling cancer for two years.

This morning I spoke with him on the phone. He was going for a last procedure before being released into hospice care with his family.

I learned just now that he didn't make it through the procedure. 

Over the past two years that he had been battling, he repeatedly had treatments and surgeries postponed, pushed back, and cancelled because of COVID. Sometimes it was because of policies due to the pandemic in general, and sometimes it was because of the rush of cases ... almost always unvaccinated ... that would overwhelm the system. 

Did all of those delays make the difference? I don't know. It certainly didn't help. 

I see the people protesting and full of anger that they might have to get vaccinated, and I have to wonder- in all of their righteous indignation, do they care even a little for the damage they do? Somehow, I doubt it.


----------



## Zardnaar

3 cops treated in hospital and feces thrown at them. 


  Cops are kinda stuck between a Rock and a hard place. There options are really do nothing or go in with water cannons, tear gas and batons which of course will end up on social media with people screaming police brutality and women and children and PoC are present. 

 There's to many to break up peacefully and a lack of polical cover. 

 Additionally the cops are independent of parliament and the occupation into it's third week is at parliament. They're more or less sitting on their hands so the police more or less have to decide to wade in or not independently and then they'll get the blame when people inevitably get hurt. 

 It's also not clear what the laws are as they haven't done anything similar since the Bill of Rights act was introduced and increasing amounts of health and safety laws. 

 So the cops don't want to do anything and can't really blame them. It's all on them if anything goes wrong (which it will let's face it).

 People basically sick of them and some feces was also dumped in the harbor contaminating local beaches getting them closed.

 Protesters are being anti social ass hats but not using enough violence where the cops can wade in and no one cares.


----------



## South by Southwest

This is just insane.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> It's been a rough week. Thursday morning, a good friend of mine had to go into the hospital. He had been battling cancer for two years.
> 
> This morning I spoke with him on the phone. He was going for a last procedure before being released into hospice care with his family.
> 
> I learned just now that he didn't make it through the procedure.




Oh, geeze.  I'm so sorry for your loss.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Snarf Zagyg said:


> It's been a rough week. Thursday morning, a good friend of mine had to go into the hospital. He had been battling cancer for two years.
> 
> This morning I spoke with him on the phone. He was going for a last procedure before being released into hospice care with his family.
> 
> I learned just now that he didn't make it through the procedure.




I'm sorry for your loss. I can relate. I lost one of my best friends to cancer in late 2020. I wasn't able to visit him in the hospital because of restrictions at the time, either. We thought he was going to beat it, too. I miss him terribly.


----------



## Imaculata

Snarf Zagyg said:


> Did all of those delays make the difference? I don't know. It certainly didn't help.




I'm sorry for your loss. I wondered the same thing when I lost my farther early last year. The huge amount of covid patients meant that he couldn't be immediately rushed to the hospital in his own city, but had to be brought to another. I wonder if this delay made a difference, and if the outcome could have been different.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

I appreciate all the people here. Thank you. 

I'm a little broken up about this right now because he left behind a spouse and daughter who is finishing her last year of middle school. And he was one of those guys that everyone loved- I mean, I can be a jerk sometimes, but he truly had no enemies. There is not a single person I know that doesn't have some story of his incredible kindness. The last in-person conversation I had with him was him reminding me that someone else deserved something, and that I needed to make it happen. He was always thinking of other people, right to the last. 

And at the same time, I see these other stories in the news. How hard is it to just behave like an adult on an airplane flight? To get vaccinated? To wear a mask when it's required? I get that sometimes things don't make sense- it can be weird to sit in a restaurant and eat and talk maskless, and then put it on to go and use the bathroom. But I'm not going to throw a tantrum and yell at the staff because they remind me to follow the rules. I don't understand when behaving like an adult, and showing kindness to others, fell out of fashion. 

Anyway, I'm going to channel this into something productive; I can't change what's going on everywhere else, but I can work with others to have a scholarship established in his memory and get a college fund established for his daughter. The best way to combat powerlessness is to do something positive & productive.

I just really want to get back to fireballs and unicorns and dragons.


----------



## payn

A week ago I went to my cousins place in rural MN for a boot hockey weekend. He works in a hospital and is very close to the pandemic issues as you would expect. During the holidays he asked some of his family if they would do a rapid test before getting together on Thanksgiving and x-mas. They told him to not only go pound sand, but wont talk to him at all now.

He asked for rapid tests for the boot hockey weekend which everyone but his brothers complied. His brothers wouldn't even come because he "ruined" the weekend with his "fake" covid stuff. There was no vaccine mandate, he just wanted to make sure he was not hosting a super spreader event. During the weekend we were talking and he said at this point he would rather spend time with my family than his own. That made me very sad.


----------



## Aeson

Sometimes family is the one you make, not the one you're born in to. Grieve for the ones you've lost, hold tighter the ones you still have.


----------



## Zardnaar

Aeson said:


> Sometimes family is the one you make, not the one you're born in to. Grieve for the ones you've lost, hold tighter the ones you still have.




  Can't pick your family.


----------



## Aeson

Sure you can. Family to me, is beyond blood or marriage. Family are the friends you make also. Sometimes though, family can be toxic, and unhealthy. You might be better off distancing yourself from them.


----------



## CleverNickName

Aeson said:


> Sure you can. Family to me, is beyond blood or marriage. Family are the friends you make also. Sometimes though, family can be toxic, and unhealthy. You might be better off distancing yourself from them.



This is the way.

I have my "birth family", the family I was born into, the people I grew up with, the family that loves and support each other through thick and thin.  But I also have my "found family," the ragtag gang of friends that I've also grown up with, who also love and support each other through thick and thin.

And to @Aeson's point: over the years I've had to cut ties with family members of both kinds, people who became abusive, manipulative, codependent, or otherwise unhealthy over the course of my life.  It's hard and it sucks, but it's important.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Aeson said:


> Sometimes family is the one you make, not the one you're born in to. Grieve for the ones you've lost, hold tighter the ones you still have.



I have always liked the motto, “Friends are the family you choose.”


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I have always liked the motto, “Friends are the family you choose.”



And you choose them out of love, rather than having them foisted upon you by obligation.


----------



## CleverNickName

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I have always liked the motto, “Friends are the family you choose.”



The one I've heard the most:  "Friends _are _family."


----------



## Cadence




----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Can't pick your family.




Just because you are a blood relation, doesn't mean you're _family_.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Just because you are a blood relation, doesn't mean you're _family_.



 Nope. I kinda got adopted into in laws family.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

CleverNickName said:


> The one I've heard the most:  "Friends _are _family."


----------



## Aeson

Snarf Zagyg said:


>



After all this time, I still have to say the line from the movie with the accent.


----------



## Zardnaar

Feb 10 300 odd cases. 
 Feb 24 6137.









						Covid-19 update: 6137 new community cases in NZ today, one further death
					

The daily number of community cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand has soared past the 6000 mark, with a record 6137 new cases today - almost double yesterday's numbers.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Derp.


----------



## Hussar

Japan seems to be past the peak and dropping down now.  Not as fast as the rise, but, at least it's still dropping fast.  There's still lots of debate going on whether to allow people into the country.  Hard not to start jumping at shadows of racism in the discussion though.  There's always that suspicion in the back of my mind that people want to keep the country closed to keep them dirty foreigners out rather than doing what's in the best interest of the country.  

It's hard not to be sensitive about it.  Japan doesn't exactly have the greatest track record on race relations.


----------



## Zardnaar

I'm guessing 1/5 tests being positive implies there's a lot more out there they're not finding?

‘Very high’ Dunedin rate shocks

 16% in the province over 20% in city. Students had a Covid party apparently.


----------



## Zardnaar

Government's using radiation devices on the protesters to make them feel sick. 









						COVID-19: Anti-mandate protester Brad Flutey admits 'quite a few getting really sick' at Parliament
					

However he claims COVID-19 is not the culprit.




					www.newshub.co.nz
				




 NZ is nuclear free. 

 Also camping 2+weeks in the mud with no sanitation go figure.

 USA have any spare shamans for export ? Think the healing crystals are running low.


----------



## Aeson

There's one in the DC jail we'd love to get rid of.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Aeson said:


> There's one in the DC jail we'd love to get rid of.



But- in a twist worthy of M. Night Shaymalan- he’s a sham shaman.


----------



## payn

Hussar said:


> Japan seems to be past the peak and dropping down now.  Not as fast as the rise, but, at least it's still dropping fast.  There's still lots of debate going on whether to allow people into the country.  Hard not to start jumping at shadows of racism in the discussion though.  There's always that suspicion in the back of my mind that people want to keep the country closed to keep them dirty foreigners out rather than doing what's in the best interest of the country.
> 
> It's hard not to be sensitive about it.  Japan doesn't exactly have the greatest track record on race relations.



On the contrary, I have an African American friend who lived in Japan for awhile. Said she would much rather be back there than Midwest America.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

payn said:


> On the contrary, I have an African American friend who lived in Japan for awhile. Said she would much rather be back there than Midwest America.



Racism in Japan is a strange beast. Racists would probably glance disapprovingly at your friend, while other folks would be super friendly (even fascinated) by your friend (which is another form of racism, but quite a bit more pleasant). Almost no one is ever likely to be overtly racist, which is the big difference from the Midwest.


----------



## payn

FitzTheRuke said:


> Racism in Japan is a strange beast. Racists would probably glance disapprovingly at your friend, while other folks would be super friendly (even fascinated) by your friend (which is another form of racism, but quite a bit more pleasant). Almost no one is ever likely to be overtly racist, which is the big difference from the Midwest.



She says it was entirely unnoticeable for her in Japan. Obviously, folks were curious about her race and her differences. The main difference for her is the way she was treated by strangers, shopkeeps, govt employees, law enforcement, etc... She is always aware of the differences in the U.S., often painfully so,  but those things were not present for her there. She finally felt like a regular person. She came home because of family and visa stuff.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

payn said:


> She says it was entirely unnoticeable for her in Japan. Obviously, folks were curious about her race and her differences. The main difference for her is the way she was treated by strangers, shopkeeps, govt employees, law enforcement, etc... She is always aware of the differences in the U.S., often painfully so,  but those things were not present for her there. She finally felt like a regular person. She came home because of family and visa stuff.



She'd probably have to stay longer to notice. It's very different than the US. They are generally very friendly and gracious to strangers, which has very little to do with race. I love the place, but it's not without its faults. Hussar would know better than me, of course.


----------



## payn

FitzTheRuke said:


> She'd probably have to stay longer to notice. It's very different than the US. They are generally very friendly and gracious to strangers, which has very little to do with race. I love the place, but it's not without its faults. Hussar would know better than me, of course.



Im sure much of it is cultural too. It's probably not as nice for someone from a different Asian country. There was lots of colonial stuff there that hasnt sat well. Similar to what happened here in the states.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

payn said:


> Im sure much of it is cultural too. It's probably not as nice for someone from a different Asian country. There was lots of colonial stuff there that hasnt sat well. Similar to what happened here in the states.



Yes exactly. To (some) westerners, Asians may appear as one group (to put it "nicely") but the Japanese, when racist, are very likely to be more racist against Chinese or Koreans, than black or white folk, who they have much less cultural baggage with. I'm going to stop there, though, because while these are my observations, I'm really an outsider on the whole thing. This is also probably not the place for it.

On the topic of the thread, I wish more of us were like the Japanese when it comes to caring about our place in our community, and our responsibilities to our fellow citizens. You're not going to see anti-vax/racist truck rally/protests there, that's for sure.


----------



## Hussar

FitzTheRuke said:


> Yes exactly. To (some) westerners, Asians may appear as one group (to put it "nicely") but the Japanese, when racist, are very likely to be more racist against Chinese or Koreans, than black or white folk, who they have much less cultural baggage with. I'm going to stop there, though, because while these are my observations, I'm really an outsider on the whole thing. This is also probably not the place for it.
> 
> On the topic of the thread, I wish more of us were like the Japanese when it comes to caring about our place in our community, and our responsibilities to our fellow citizens. You're not going to see anti-vax/racist truck rally/protests there, that's for sure.



At least not much.  Although, it has been a struggle to get the vaccination rates up.  A lot of people are resistant to the idea of getting vaccinated.  I mean, the booster rate right now is about 20%.  And it wasn't until about November of 2021 before we hit 80% for second shot.  Heck, I just got my notice for my booster in the mail this week.

Japan is very, very slow about this stuff.


----------



## SakanaSensei

I also am in Japan, and on the racism bit, MOST of the time I notice nothing.

And then in the office at school this morning, the principal decided to say that "foreigners think about things in weird ways, it's best not to talk about -current event in Europe- because there's no way people can understand it." As if everyone that's not Japanese is not only part of a monolith, but an alien one at that.


----------



## Zardnaar

Yesterday we had new record of 6500 cases iirc. 

 12000 today. 









						Covid-19: Five deaths, 12,011 cases and 237 in hospital
					

More than 8000 positive cases reported on Friday were detected via rapid antigen tests.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Zardnaar said:


> Yesterday we had new record of 6500 cases iirc.
> 
> 12000 today.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19: Five deaths, 12,011 cases and 237 in hospital
> 
> 
> More than 8000 positive cases reported on Friday were detected via rapid antigen tests.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i.stuff.co.nz



Welcome to what the rest of the world went through over the last few years. Too bad you didn't hold it off forever.


----------



## Zardnaar

FitzTheRuke said:


> Welcome to what the rest of the world went through over the last few years. Too bad you didn't hold it off forever.




 Yeah we knew it's a matter of time. To many leaks from MiQ. Double vax rate adults hit 95% and I suppose omicron is the better variant. .


----------



## Rabulias

Zardnaar said:


> Yeah we knew it's a matter of time. To many leaks from MiQ. Double vax rate adults hit 95% and I suppose omicron is the better variant. .



Eventually, New Zealand would be exposed again to the rest of the world in large numbers, and thus to Covid. This may the best possible outcome, getting hit with Omicron with a high vaccination rate.


----------



## Zardnaar

Rabulias said:


> Eventually, New Zealand would be exposed again to the rest of the world in large numbers, and thus to Covid. This may the best possible outcome, getting hit with Omicron with a high vaccination rate.




 Yeah they're gonna dump MiQ soon and reopen the borders.


----------



## Hussar

MiQ?


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> MiQ?




Qurantine system. Basically mandatory 2 weeks of isolation assuming one can enter the country. 

  Most local cases are in the student area. Several restaurants have been closed this week. 
Covid-19 rips through Dunedin students

 There's been Covid parties wife said 10/19 places she contacted today have Covid. Heap of students came back from summer break and exploded the Covid cases. 

 Wash year we get "fresher flu" local joke you can catch an std in that area by breathing the air. 

 One of those parties. 1000+ street parties burn some furniture. 


 Can be feral at times.


----------



## Zardnaar

We might need some foreign aid. A  mysterious sickness is spreading through the protesters camp here. 

 Holistic healing and literal tinfoil hats are being used. 









						Anti-mandate protesters making tinfoil hats amid fears radiation, not COVID-19, is causing illness at camp
					

"People are actually making tinfoil hats. Now isn't that funny? But they work, apparently."




					www.newshub.co.nz
				




 If you have any spare healing shamans or healing crystals please send asap.


----------



## J.Quondam

Masks bad, but tinfoil hats good?
The stoopid just never ceases to amaze.


----------



## CleverNickName

Zardnaar said:


> We might need some foreign aid. A  mysterious sickness is spreading through the protesters camp here.
> 
> Holistic healing and literal tinfoil hats are being used.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Anti-mandate protesters making tinfoil hats amid fears radiation, not COVID-19, is causing illness at camp
> 
> 
> "People are actually making tinfoil hats. Now isn't that funny? But they work, apparently."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newshub.co.nz
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If you have any spare healing shamans or healing crystals please send asap.



I don't want to mock anyone's beliefs, but this is a matter of public health (and I'm a member of said public.)  So I'll just summarize:


----------



## Umbran

J.Quondam said:


> Masks bad, but tinfoil hats good?
> The stoopid just never ceases to amaze.




Humans can become prisoners of their limbic systems.


----------



## J.Quondam

Umbran said:


> Humans can become prisoners of their limbic systems.



Some of us act like a limbic system imprisoned in a human.


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> I don't want to mock anyone's beliefs, but this is a matter of public health (and I'm a member of said public.)  So I'll just summarize:




Government here has been using radiation weapons on them. 

 Might not be Covid either gastrointestinal problems possibly. Who knew basic hygiene was a good idea?


----------



## Zardnaar

They may be taking the piss idk 



 But proof.


----------



## South by Southwest

When parody and reality merge, what does it mean anymore to call something "parody?"


----------



## Zardnaar

South by Southwest said:


> When parody and reality merge, what does it mean anymore to call something "parody?"




 I put that on the family chat. Brother in law's response "are they serious"?. 

 I'm not sure but it's funny. If you ever need to feel better about yourself go for a walk and laugh at them.


----------



## Ryujin

J.Quondam said:


> Masks bad, but tinfoil hats good?
> The stoopid just never ceases to amaze.



Masks won't stop The Greys.


----------



## Ryujin

South by Southwest said:


> When parody and reality merge, what does it mean anymore to call something "parody?"







__





						Poe's law - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Umbran

South by Southwest said:


> When parody and reality merge, what does it mean anymore to call something "parody?"




I told my wife about this, and she asked, incredulously, "Is this some performance art piece, or something?"

It is a new level of dedication to get dysentery for your art.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> I told my wife about this, and she asked, incredulously, "Is this some performance art piece, or something?"
> 
> It is a new level of dedication to get dysentery for your art.




EMR weapons don't ya know.

 Livestream.









						Police spat at during ongoing Parliament protest, couple gets married on site
					

The officers were attended to by paramedics as a precaution, police said in a statement. Meanwhile, an unvaccinated couple got married at the protest site.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




Coming up to three weeks of camping in mud and poo.


----------



## Zardnaar

Don't pontificate. Laugh.


----------



## Janx

Ryujin said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Poe's law - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



this is why I no longer find the Onion funny. Since 2015, most of its headlines were indistinguishable from actual events.


----------



## Ryujin

Janx said:


> this is why I no longer find the Onion funny. Since 2015, most of its headlines were indistinguishable from actual events.



I know the feeling. A friend posted a parody story from The New Yorker and it sounded far too plausible, so I took it at face value.


----------



## Zardnaar

Here comes the stick. 









						As it happened: Anti-mandate protest enters 23rd day as police descend on Parliament
					

Tents were set alight on Parliament grounds today, protesters clashed with police and three officers have been taken to hospital, after bricks were torn up and thrown at them.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Cadence

The CDC recently changed how they show their recommendations.  Here is the County map for the US  (last updated the 25th, guessing another on Friday).  COVID-19 ARCHIVED WEBPAGE

I'm still in an Orange one, but guessing that will go down to yellow this week (or next by the latest) if the trends continue. Glad a lot of my family is in the Green.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> The CDC recently changed how they show their recommendations.  Here is the County map for the US  (last updated the 25th, guessing another on Friday).  COVID-19 ARCHIVED WEBPAGE
> 
> I'm still in an Orange one, but guessing that will go down to yellow this week (or next by the latest) if the trends continue. Glad a lot of my family is in the Green.
> 
> View attachment 152635
> View attachment 152636
> 
> View attachment 152637




 Think we would be orange on that map. Most of the country anyway. And that's just the cases we're finding think the testings been overwhelmed.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Think we would be orange on that map. Most of the country anyway. And that's just the cases we're finding think the testings been overwhelmed.




Almost 15k new cases in the last 24 hours for you?  :-(


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Almost 15k new cases in the last 24 hours for you?  :-(




 Thought it was 19k. 

 1 in 5 tests locally were positive so there's probably more out there they're not finding. 
 Last week wife had to ring the student area and 10/19 places she rung were isolating due to Covid. 

 She's got a bit of a shock but kinda as "everyone she knows" has been doing the right thing. 

 Unfortunately everyone else isn't. Covid parties etc. 

 Can't really maintain alert levels for 2+ years. Once it got out everything kinda fell apart (scanning app, testing, support of mandates etc). 

 Kept it out 18 months, slowed it for 6. Border controls are being removed etc. 

 Now hospitality is complaining omicron bus worse than lockdowns. They're the ones who wanted to open things up turns out people go out less.

 Think they're looking at population loss as well 20k a year as the isolation blew out house prices and people can't afford to stay here.

Just under 20k yesterday.









						Covid-19 hospitalisations to hit 800 in under a week at current rate
					

Data modeller Michael Plank says hospital numbers are doubling roughly every five days and if that continues, the number of people in hospital on 6 March could be close to 800.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Baron Opal II

The Alaska and Hawai'i maps are not what I would expect.


----------



## Umbran

Woohoo!  I'm in the Green!

For now, anyway.  The problem with this guisance is that it may change on short timescales.  If you really want to follow it, you need to check every day or few to keep up with the numbers.

And, it is pretty clear that this guidance is not so much about _personal_ safety, as it is overall public health, which is entirely appropriate for the CDC, but doesn't match how so many think about the issue.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Baron Opal II said:


> The Alaska and Hawai'i maps are not what I would expect.




Alaska got slammed but good at one point, so they're probably on the upswing, and at least so far we haven't hit a new widely-spread strain.


----------



## Zardnaar

Setting stuff on fire. 









						As it happened: Anti-mandate protest enters 23rd day as police descend on Parliament
					

Tents were set alight on Parliament grounds today, protesters clashed with police and three officers have been taken to hospital, after bricks were torn up and thrown at them.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				






Update








						Full coverage: Police operation ends Parliament occupation
					

Police were staying on guard through the night as pockets of "disruptive" occupiers remained.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> Woohoo!  I'm in the Green!
> 
> And, it is pretty clear that this guidance is not so much about _personal_ safety, as it is overall public health, which is entirely appropriate for the CDC, but doesn't match how so many think about the issue.




Am I remembering right that pretty early in the fight against COVID in the US the call was to stop the hospitals from being overburdened and protect the most vulnerable (or protect them until a vaccine came out?).  

I wonder if a county by county graph like this one from the beginning would have had more people following it and less push back than the across the board restrictions.


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> Am I remembering right that pretty early in the fight against COVID in the US the call was to stop the hospitals from being overburdened and protect the most vulnerable (or protect them until a vaccine came out?).




Yes, but I don't know that the call was particularly effective.  We have all those "rugged individualists" who aren't all that interested in helping their neighbors.



Cadence said:


> I wonder if a county by county graph like this one from the beginning would have had more people following it and less push back than the across the board restrictions.




I don't know that _more data_ would really have been helpful to the typical citizen.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> I don't know that _more data_ would really have been helpful to the typical citizen.




County by county with measurable goals tied to the hospitals felt like a smaller ask than statewide until "the governor felt like it".  But I would fully believe any ask by the government would be too much for some


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> County by county with measurable goals tied to the hospitals felt like a smaller ask than statewide until "the governor felt like it".




County by county means that, as you go about your business, you have to keep track of what county you are in, and the current status of each of them.  While this may be okay for folks who are working from home, for someone like my wife, whose work can easily take her into four different counties in a single day, that's just not practical.  If it isn't _easy_ people won't do it.  If people won't do it, it isn't effective.

In addition, it isn't like the CDC had the ability to give such guidance from day one!  This new guidance is built from a couple years of experience unlike anything in the past century.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Yes, but I don't know that the call was particularly effective.  We have all those "rugged individualists" who aren't all that interested in helping their neighbors.
> 
> I don't know that _more data_ would really have been helpful to the typical citizen.



Ah, yes. The "rugged individualists." AKA "Those with no sense of community."


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> County by county means that, as you go about your business, you have to keep track of what county you are in, and the current status of each of them.  While this may be okay for folks who are working from home, for someone like my wife, whose work can easily take her into four different counties in a single day, that's just not practical.  If it isn't _easy_ people won't do it.  If people won't do it, it isn't effective.




Being in a southern state, all the rules down here varied by city/town.   And in a lot of metro areas there are folks crossing state lines where it might change.   ::::

Doing the recommendations by MSA would at least make what one is recommended to do easier.  I'm doubtful it would fix the patchwork of varying rules for many states.



Umbran said:


> In addition, it isn't like the CDC had the ability to give such guidance from day one!  This new guidance is built from a couple years of experience unlike anything in the past century.




I'm hoping that some of the things learned from the past two years won't be chucked by the eventual change-overs in administration, and next pandemic it won't take two years to get to something like this.

My big fear next pandemic is that there are a lot of states where the governor will no longer have the power to do emergency things, or where the state legislature will need to change the law to allow for mask/vaccine/whatnot requirements.


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> Being in a southern state, all the rules down here varied by city/town.   And in a lot of metro areas there are folks crossing state lines where it might change.   ::::




And, broadly speaking, how did that work out for southern states?  Not too well, as I understand it.  When trying to drive compliance, simplicity often beats accuracy.



Cadence said:


> My big fear next pandemic is that there are a lot of states where the governor will no longer have the power to do emergency things, or where the state legislature will need to change the law to allow for mask/vaccine/whatnot requirements.




Hopefully, it will be long enough in the future that state governments will have recovered their senses.


----------



## Cadence

Umbran said:


> And, broadly speaking, how did that work out for southern states?  Not too well, as I understand it.  When trying to drive compliance, simplicity often beats accuracy.




I mean, if we went for one uniform state rule it probably would have ended up being no masking or closures and been even worse 

The remembering which towns required masks or not didn't seem too hard.  If they changed a lot I could see it getting annoying.  Trying to remember three color codes would be a lot worse-- but I'm guessing most people would just remember if they should personally mask for yellow or orange and make it two categories.



Umbran said:


> Hopefully, it will be long enough in the future that state governments will have recovered their senses.




It just makes me sad that my state seems to gradually becoming relatively less embarrassing, but only because so many other states are making even stranger and stranger decisions.


----------



## NotAYakk

USA's excess death rates where horrible over the pandemic.

Like, their best states competed with Canada's worst provinces.

They did better than Brazil/Russia/SA/Mexico and the like, slightly.


----------



## Ryujin

Further reinforcing my absolute lack of desire to ever visit Mexico.


----------



## Eltab

Cadence said:


> My big fear next pandemic is that there are a lot of states where the governor will no longer have the power to do emergency things, or where the state legislature will need to change the law to allow for mask/vaccine/whatnot requirements.



The Indiana legislature is in session currently.  One bill under discussion would a!low the Governor to declare an emergency and take action he deems necessary (this is current procedure) but after 30 days he would have to get the Legislature's permission to extend the declaration and continue the measures.  

In large part this is because we are coming up to 30-Day Extension # 24 of the original 30-day state of emergency.  If the measures taken are not making a dent in the problem - because they are inadequate or misdirected or whatever the reason - getting advice and help and resources to better address the problem (plus an implied vote of confidence / no-confidence) should not be controversial.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Eltab said:


> In large part this is because we are coming up to 30-Day Extension # 24 of the original 30-day state of emergency.  If the measures taken are not making a dent in the problem - because they are inadequate or misdirected or whatever the reason - getting advice and help and resources to better address the problem (plus an implied vote of confidence / no-confidence) should not be controversial.




If the decision-making on the legislature is rational, it probably wouldn't be.  I'm rather unconvinced that describes all (perhaps even a majority) of them in the U.S.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Further reinforcing my absolute lack of desire to ever visit Mexico.




Mexico has been awesome to visit.  Just, you know, not right this moment.


----------



## CleverNickName

Umbran said:


> Mexico has been awesome to visit.  Just, you know, not right this moment.



I love Mexico.  One of the best vacations I've ever taken was to Mexico (Cabo San Lucas).


----------



## Eltab

Thomas Shey said:


> If the decision-making on the legislature is rational, it probably wouldn't be.  I'm rather unconvinced that describes all (perhaps even a majority) of them in the U.S.



Governors are not exactly shining in the 'rational decision-making' department, either; one of them prohibited buying seed to grow fresh fruits and vegetables at home - just as garden planting season began.
Getting advice from outside the close circle of advisors - which a poor governor can turn into a squad of yes-men - is more likely to help than hurt.


----------



## Cadence

Eltab said:


> Governors are not exactly shining in the 'rational decision-making' department, either; one of them prohibited buying seed to grow fresh fruits and vegetables at home - just as garden planting season began.




That seems a bit out of context...
PolitiFact: Michigan's COVID-19 order doesn't ban gardening or sale of seeds and fruit.








						PolitiFact - Michigan's COVID-19 order doesn’t ban gardening or sale of seeds and fruit
					

In a regular feature called "How the Left Destroys the Nation," a website founded by the leader of a far-right group pos




					www.politifact.com
				




Not that I'm defending many (if any) of the governors!


----------



## Thomas Shey

Eltab said:


> Governors are not exactly shining in the 'rational decision-making' department, either; one of them prohibited buying seed to grow fresh fruits and vegetables at home - just as garden planting season began.
> Getting advice from outside the close circle of advisors - which a poor governor can turn into a squad of yes-men - is more likely to help than hurt.




Its easier to replace one governor than a majority of a legislature.


----------



## NotAYakk

Cadence said:


> That seems a bit out of context...
> PolitiFact: Michigan's COVID-19 order doesn't ban gardening or sale of seeds and fruit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> PolitiFact - Michigan's COVID-19 order doesn’t ban gardening or sale of seeds and fruit
> 
> 
> In a regular feature called "How the Left Destroys the Nation," a website founded by the leader of a far-right group pos
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politifact.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not that I'm defending many (if any) of the governors!



And that is why USA had 3x the number of dead citizens than Canada did from Covid 19 (per capita).

"Closing big box store garden centers" is not "banning sale of seeds".  It does close some spots where you can buy seeds.  But the point was things not needed for life & security in the next month where not to be sold in person, because pandemic.

At least around here, big box stores had a thriving curbside pickup system during lockdowns.  It was annoying and awkward and sucked, but it avoided masses of people sharing airflow and spreading covid 19.

Which bought Canada time to vaccinate, even after our contracts for vaccine delivery was blocked from export from the USA (we relied on European/Indian/UK vaccines for a while; Canada bought about 10 vaccine courses per person in order to ensure supply disruption was minimized; so 33% of our purchased vaccines being blocked from export was a problem, but not an insurmountable one; later India blocked exports.  By the time USA started honouring their vaccine contracts we had vaccinated our most vulnerable populations with mostly European produced vaccines.)


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> And that is why USA had 3x the number of dead citizens than Canada did from Covid 19 (per capita).




If by, "that," you mean, "misinformation for political gain and intransigence," then yes, that's a large part of it.



NotAYakk said:


> "Closing big box store garden centers" is not "banning sale of seeds".




And the order _DID NOT CLOSE_ stores.  It required very large to limit the amount of indoor space customers could access, as a way of limiting the number of people in the place at one time.  You could still buy seeds, but you may have needed staff to fetch them for you.



NotAYakk said:


> At least around here, big box stores had a thriving curbside pickup system during lockdowns.




So did we in the US.  Though, note the order in question came out in April of 2020 - many places hadn't worked out the logistics of curbside pickup yet, as major orders to contain spread of the disease had only been around for a couple of months in most areas.

Still, there was honestly no real bar to buying seeds.  Burpee would be happy to send them to you through the mail.


----------



## Deset Gled

NotAYakk said:


> At least around here, big box stores had a thriving curbside pickup system during lockdowns.  *It was annoying and awkward and sucked*, but it avoided masses of people sharing airflow and spreading covid 19.




That wasn't annoying, it was the BEST THING EVER.  Man, do I love when everything has curbside pickup as an option.  Even if I have to sit in line, it's better than wasting time because I can't find this one specific thing, or can't find a person to help, or end up walking back and forth across the store multiple times.  Luckily, many places around here have kept it going.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Still, there was honestly no real bar to buying seeds.  Burpee would be happy to send them to you through the mail.




I _bought_ seeds from them during that period to plant a memorial garden over where we buried our dog's ashes.


----------



## J.Quondam

Cadence said:


> That seems a bit out of context...
> PolitiFact: Michigan's COVID-19 order doesn't ban gardening or sale of seeds and fruit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> PolitiFact - Michigan's COVID-19 order doesn’t ban gardening or sale of seeds and fruit
> 
> 
> In a regular feature called "How the Left Destroys the Nation," a website founded by the leader of a far-right group pos
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politifact.com



And just for a a little extra context, the originator of that claim currently is running the headline "Covid Jab Deadlier Than Covid for Anyone Under 80."* on their front page.
Jeepers.


* spoilered to hide the malicious stupidity.


----------



## Cadence

NotAYakk said:


> At least around here, big box stores had a thriving curbside pickup system during lockdowns.  It was annoying and awkward and sucked, but it avoided masses of people sharing airflow and spreading covid 19.



Where I'm at in the south, we didn't have as many big shutdowns of stores, but did still have the extra curb-side option through the entire pandemic at most of them.   It felt strange waiting there to get it contactlessly put in the trunk while others were still flooding into the store.   (A lot of food deliveries also changed to just leaving it on the porch instead of knocking and waiting to hand it off).


----------



## Zardnaar

One of my anti vax people I went to school with has pulled his kids from school due to Covid. 

 And complaining about money as people aren't using his business atm (he's a gardener). 

 Who would have thunk it?


----------



## Ryujin

NotAYakk said:


> And that is why USA had 3x the number of dead citizens than Canada did from Covid 19 (per capita).
> 
> "Closing big box store garden centers" is not "banning sale of seeds".  It does close some spots where you can buy seeds.  But the point was things not needed for life & security in the next month where not to be sold in person, because pandemic.
> 
> At least around here, big box stores had a thriving curbside pickup system during lockdowns.  It was annoying and awkward and sucked, but it avoided masses of people sharing airflow and spreading covid 19.
> 
> Which bought Canada time to vaccinate, even after our contracts for vaccine delivery was blocked from export from the USA (we relied on European/Indian/UK vaccines for a while; Canada bought about 10 vaccine courses per person in order to ensure supply disruption was minimized; so 33% of our purchased vaccines being blocked from export was a problem, but not an insurmountable one; later India blocked exports.  By the time USA started honouring their vaccine contracts we had vaccinated our most vulnerable populations with mostly European produced vaccines.)



I was not a fan of the online order and curbside pickup. I ordered some lumber and dowel pins. It was 4 weeks before my lumber order was ready. When I went to pick it up I found that the dowel pins were being shipped, instead of being with my clearly "for pickup" order, and they picked the most mismatched lumber, some of it with obvious cracks, when the boards were supposed to be high quality "hobby boards" that I paid extra for. I will no longer deal with that particular orange painted outlet.


----------



## Thomas Shey

There's some definite issues with curbside; it works better for things that are pre-packaged and you can find out if they're MIA in advance.  In terms of groceries I was always happier with the frozen food than the fresh, for example.


----------



## Cadence

CDC has our twin counties both down to medium now 

For big changes though, the counties my sister is in went from green to orange this map :-/   I'm guessing small population counties have lots of variabilities in the statistics and will be pretty unstable.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Good to see Los Angeles County is in the green.


----------



## Baron Opal II

NYT Article from Friday, as told to me via medical channels, US Centric:



> *CDC releases new data suggesting that 90% of Americans can ease masking*CDC on Thursday issued revised data indicating that 90% of people nationwide are in a location with low or medium community levels of COVID-19. Under CDC's new guidance, those individuals can now stop wearing masks and no longer need to social distance or avoid crowded indoor spaces. That figure is up from 70% last week, when CDC advised counties to use three factors to determine if the risk to their residents is low, medium, or high: new hospital admissions related to COVID-19 over the previous week, the percentage of hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients, and new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people over the previous week. CDC recommends that unvaccinated people continue to wear masks even in low-risk areas. According to CDC data, large sections of West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia, Nebraska, and Montana remain at a high risk. West Virginia is averaging just under 700 daily new cases, according to a _New York Times_ database, but it is seeing a decline in hospitalizations in most counties. Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia said Wednesday the National Guard will complete its mission of providing additional staffing at hospitals throughout the state next week. - May Require Paid Subscription


----------



## NotAYakk

Covid has evolved into a pastel version apparently.


----------



## Zardnaar

Fun and games 5 days ago a retrospective. 


 Binning paving stones at the goon squad, setting a kids playground in fire, exploding lpg bottles.

 Dumb ass ferals.


----------



## Imaculata

Today I got yelled at in a supermarket by a random old man, because he was offended that I still wear a mask at the supermarket.

He told me that masks are toxic and flashed his business card as a lifecoach at me, so you know he must be right.

He also called me a moron. I didn't bother to tell him I was a programmer, and moved on.


----------



## Cadence

Mass (for the third time in two years) and lunch after (for the first).  Waitress we had had for a decade and we thought had quit was still there 

Mask use the last time at the grocery store seemed higher than in the past.  Wonder if it was the same percentage but it just felt different (I unintentionally forgot my mask at home so was probably looking more for the masking folks and feeling guilty for each one. )

Our University is talking about dropping the requirement after spring break this week.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Scans reveal how Covid may change the brain
					

Even after a mild infection, the overall size of the brain had shrunk, researchers found.



					www.bbc.com
				




Summary: a University of Oxford study of MRIs done during the Alpha wave  of the pandemic showed damage and loss of brain mass associated with the olfactory, taste, and memory portions of the brains of infected humans as compared to a healthy control group.  Grey matter mass loss was between .2-2%. 96% of the infected people studied had mild COVID.

Researchers stressed that their study only showed the damage, not how long lasting it was- the brain could possibly heal- and that more research needs to be done to see if similar results were present with other COVID variants. (Reports of loss of smell, taste and cognitive difficulties have declined as a percentage of possible symptoms as the variant waves have emerged.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Any advice in social stuff peeps? No D&D since August and we still go out sometimes but only as a couple to certain places at certain times. 

 Last 30+ years wife's family has a Saturday lunch. They cancelled it which lasted around 2 weeks. 

 Replaced with smaller socially distanced gathering family picnic in the park. Everyone's double vaxxed+boosted.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

I played D&D in person for the first time in two years. We are all boosted (and a few of us have had covid as recently as January) and our area has no restrictions on it currently, so we figured it would be okay.

Man, did I ever miss doing that. I think my mental health has been quite seriously suffering without it.


----------



## Mannahnin

Zardnaar said:


> Any advice in social stuff peeps? No D&D since August and we still go out sometimes but only as a couple to certain places at certain times.
> 
> Last 30+ years wife's family has a Saturday lunch. They cancelled it which lasted around 2 weeks.
> 
> Replaced with smaller socially distanced gathering family picnic in the park. Everyone's double vaxxed+boosted.



During the height of the pandemic here I had a couple of "bubble buddies"; people I saw regularly with or without precautions, based on our relative exposure levels, and cancelling if either of us felt sick.  One good shared hobby was hiking in the mountains.  

All my gaming transitioned to virtual, though, for couple of years.  I've only recently had an in-person session for a new Vampire game, which looks like it'll be somewhere between monthly and biweekly.


----------



## Zardnaar

Irony borders been closed last two years. Now been placed on USAs don't fly list. 

 22k cases yesterday 5900 odd locally and that's just the ones they know about.  My city's only 120k people damn students it's going through them hard. 25%+ of cases with 2% of the population. Quite a few places shut due to staff in isolation. Suspect we might just be better at detecting it due to RATs testing.

  You get counted if you self test with a RAT and use the app to say you've got it. 7 in hospital though 0 in ICU locally.

 Think we'll button up for a few weeks and sit the peak out.


----------



## Zardnaar

First person we personally know their kid has tested positive and has symptoms.


----------



## Imaculata

My company hosted a get together in a restaurant, where there would be "adequate room to social distance". I declined, because it seemed very unwise. Turns out someone had covid, and infected 6 others. Great job Einsteins!


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> My company hosted a get together in a restaurant, where there would be "adequate room to social distance". I declined, because it seemed very unwise. Turns out someone had covid, and infected 6 others. Great job Einsteins!




 Not doing that or any social gatherings. 

 Got my wires crossed the other day. 22k was the daily numbers 5900 was total cases locally not daily cases. 

 Brainfart. 

 Weather permitting might go for a hike this weekend. Social distancing good at that go climb the nearest large hill or Mountain.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Hmm. My area is dropping mask mandates as of tomorrow. I guess we'll see how that goes.


----------



## Ryujin

FitzTheRuke said:


> Hmm. My area is dropping mask mandates as of tomorrow. I guess we'll see how that goes.



March 21st, here. I'll still be wearing one.


----------



## Thomas Shey

I figure I'm going to do a compromise; outside in non-croweded areas we're not doing masks anymore, but if I'm going inside, especially in a place that's liable to be crowded, you can bet I'm still masking up, and an N95 at that.


----------



## Jacob Lewis

In the past two years since this started, I haven't had so much as a cold or the flu. I'm never going without a mask again!


----------



## MoonSong

One state has dropped the mandate. I can see lots of people around me don't wear one anymore, but they still wear it in public transport. No matter what, I ain't dropping it ever. I've just gotten an ear protector and I plan to keep using it for as long as it isn't illegal. It is the best option, really.


----------



## CleverNickName

FitzTheRuke said:


> Hmm. My area is dropping mask mandates as of tomorrow. I guess we'll see how that goes.



I know right?
What could possibly go wrong?

There pandemic has taught me many good practices and habits that I will be keeping for years after this pandemic is finally over.  I'll still be wearing a mask whenever I'm on public transportation or in public buildings...I don't care how many dirty looks I get, I'll just tell everyone I have "a bit of a cold," and advise them to keep their distance.

Speaking of distance, I'll still be social distancing: if I can't stand more than 6 feet away from someone, I'll just...you know, leave.  I realize this means there will only be outdoor concerts and restaurant seating from now on, but that's fine by me.

I'll still be working from home for as long as it is an option, too.  I've invested too much in my home office to just scrap it all and go back to a cube farm, and I've learned that I can be so much more productive here in the comfort of my home.  No daily commute, no parking fees, no time wasted sitting in traffic...

I'll still be supporting local restaurants by using GrubHub and DoorDash.  Restaurants that drop this service to "force" patrons to come back to their indoor tables are gonna have to do it without me, because I think I'd rather have cold bologna at home than sit in their dining room with a hundred coughing, sneezing strangers.


----------



## Horwath

Jacob Lewis said:


> In the past two years since this started, I haven't had so much as a cold or the flu. I'm never going without a mask again!



not so great idea.

your immune system needs training with "relatively" harmless viruses.

Be sure to get all seasonal vaccines in addition.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

My personal take on post-pandemic existence is that I’ll _at least _adopt the Japanese cultural more of wearing a mask in public if sick.  I already kept my distance and eschewed contact in those situations, but with masks being so ubiquitous now, I don’t see a reason not to normalize that practice.


----------



## Horwath

Dannyalcatraz said:


> My personal take on post-pandemic existence is that I’ll _at least _adopt the Japanese cultural more of wearing a mask in public if sick.



or at least cover up you damn mouth when sneezing/coughing...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Horwath said:


> or at least cover up you damn mouth when sneezing/coughing...



Dad’s a doctor- I learned THAT very early on.

But masking makes more sense.  It’s easy, it’s more effective, and it’s hands-free. 

That last one looks large for me personally.  I once got sneezed on by an old friend who was holding the top 2 tiers of a wedding cake while I drove the car.  Neither of us could lower his window- it was manual- and my direction was the only one without cake in it.

*And the sneeze was volcanically messy.**

If that had happened during the past year or so, a mask would have been my savior.





* FWIW, that wasn’t the only bad thing that happened to me at that celebration .  It wasn’t the worst of it, either…


----------



## Zardnaar

One of wife's workmates in the office got it. Quite a few there but they've banned staff from other sections entering. 

 Everyone who got boosted had very mild cases sore throat/cold type mild. Those with two shots some were sick for couple of days. One person had a crap week. 

 Friends kid is fine bit under the weather for a day or two. 

 Gas has gone up in price but groceries up by 17% looks like the housing crisis has plateaued though after two years if 20%+ price rises. Average house is only around 700k usd nationwide. 

 Father in law hothouse has been providing produce for us cauliflower hit $10 usd fun times.

 Glorious PM gave a bit of a disaster interview and basically "fake news" the cost of living thing oops. She may as well of said "let them eat cake". 

 Probably just hide in house this weekend.


----------



## Hussar

In for shot number 3 tomorrow.  FInally.  Looks like the 3rd booster numbers here are going up nicely and omicron cases are falling as well.  Still don7t know if I'm face to face in my uni classes that start in a couple of weeks.


----------



## Umbran

Various masking mandates are dropping in my area as well.  Work is sending around a survey, with a goal of having folks start showing up one day a week starting in April.

Meanwhile, China is fighting off its largest outbreak since 2020.  So, we'll have to see how that goes.


----------



## Thomas Shey

CleverNickName said:


> I'll still be working from home for as long as it is an option, too.  I've invested too much in my home office to just scrap it all and go back to a cube farm, and I've learned that I can be so much more productive here in the comfort of my home.  No daily commute, no parking fees, no time wasted sitting in traffic...



To the degree there's any statistics so far, it seems that in general, office work operates more efficiently in work-from-home.  How much of that is people overworking compared to when they clock in and out probably is yet to be determined.


----------



## Cadence

New CDC map for the US was uplifting (it is basically about the danger of overburdening healthcare iirc). 
Then the radio news reported the vaccinated % in Africa as a whole :-(


----------



## Thomas Shey

I'm really surprised about Nevada.  It must be an issue of a good population density to medical services ratio.


----------



## CapnZapp

In Scandinavia the pandemic is basically over. All restrictions dropped, no more public announcements, few people wearing masks, everybody acting as before the pandemic, the war in Ukraine consuming the news media...

Yeah, like it never happened.


----------



## CleverNickName

CapnZapp said:


> In Scandinavia the pandemic is basically over. All restrictions dropped, no more public announcements, few people wearing masks, everybody acting as before the pandemic, the war in Ukraine consuming the news media...
> 
> Yeah, like it never happened.



Same thing here in America, too.  

And sure, a thousand Americans are still dying every single day from Covid-19, but we don't talk about that.


----------



## Zardnaar

That feeling you get when your countries like a museum. Skipped delta for the most part straight to Omicron. 









						Covid-19 update: Seven further deaths, 18,699 new community cases
					

The total number of deaths of people with Covid-19 in New Zealand has risen to more than 100 with seven more reported today, while community case numbers have risen by 18,699.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Think we had 7 deaths today I think that was a new daily record. 18000+ cases today. 

 One thing I hate here is it's a bit insular sometimes. Lots of complaining about cost of living or gas but there's a pandemic/war double combo going on.

 Or my favorite "where's my freight" when the company has 30 people isolating. Few places just outright closed.


----------



## Ryujin

"Wag the Dog" comes immediately to mind.


----------



## Cadence

CleverNickName said:


> Same thing here in America, too.
> 
> And sure, a thousand Americans are still dying every single day from Covid-19, but we don't talk about that.





If it's not new it's not news.  And COVID gradually joins the ranks of all the other things that are just predicted deaths each year and not excess ones (unless it gets "particularly bad" relative to the baseline).  Even if they are preventable :-(


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Looks like Omicron’s “stealth” variant is giving up its secrets.  It’s more transmissible but no more dangerous than omicron,  Experts do not expect it to cause a new spike in infections, but believe it will slow the decline in cases.  And most- but not all- of the current weapons in our arsenal that work on omicron will work on this variant, _including_ the antibodies created by a prior omicron infection.









						'Stealth' Omicron Is Stealthy No More: What's Known About the BA.2 Variant
					

As the omicron coronavirus surge subsides, researchers are keeping an eye on a highly transmissible subvariant known as BA.2. Although it does not appear to have the capacity to drive a large new wave of infections, the variant could potentially slow the current decline of COVID cases and make...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## South by Southwest

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Looks like Omicron’s “stealth” variant is giving up its secrets.  It’s more transmissible but no more dangerous than omicron,  Experts do not expect it to cause a new spike in infections, but believe it will slow the decline in cases.  And most- but not all- of the current weapons in our arsenal that work on omicron will work on this variant, _including_ the antibodies created by a prior omicron infection.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'Stealth' Omicron Is Stealthy No More: What's Known About the BA.2 Variant
> 
> 
> As the omicron coronavirus surge subsides, researchers are keeping an eye on a highly transmissible subvariant known as BA.2. Although it does not appear to have the capacity to drive a large new wave of infections, the variant could potentially slow the current decline of COVID cases and make...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



Rare to see _good_ news these days. Thanks for it!


----------



## niklinna

Big surprise folks, another wave is on its way in various places.









						State of Affairs: March 14 (Europe, Asia, U.S., and Deltacron)
					

Case trends around the globe have made a u-turn and started increasing, specifically in Asian and European countries. The virus will continue to transmit and mutate, so a change in case trends shouldn’t be a surprise. We are also at a point in the pandemic where a rise in cases means something...




					yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com


----------



## South by Southwest

Well, so much for the good news. Back to business, I guess.


----------



## Zardnaar

Two more positives at wife's office a lot of staff off now. Getting close to where they can't operate.


----------



## Cadence

Our University has made masks optional in buildings starting tomorrow (as opposed to "required"... which was surprisingly well followed given the lack of enforcement ... probably > 99% in classrooms where the instructor asked folks to, and >75% in hallways).  The vaccination % are pathetic though.


----------



## niklinna

More on that coming wave, and how we are not prepared. 
	

	







						Once again, America is in denial about signs of a fresh Covid wave | Eric Topol
					

In the past couple of weeks, UK, Germany, France and others are experiencing a new wave. The US should get ready




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Cadence

niklinna said:


> More on that coming wave, and how we are not prepared.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Once again, America is in denial about signs of a fresh Covid wave | Eric Topol
> 
> 
> In the past couple of weeks, UK, Germany, France and others are experiencing a new wave. The US should get ready
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com



Highlighting from the article:

"Now we are at a point with very low vaccination and booster rates, only 64% of the populations has had two shots, and 29% three shots. That puts the United States at 65th and 70th in the world ranking of countries, respectively.

Indeed, the people who need protection the most, besides those who are immunocompromised, are the 65-plus group. The US has a booster rate of 65% in this age group, whereas the UK and many European and Asian countries exceed a 90% booster rate for people 65 and over."


----------



## Aeson

niklinna said:


> More on that coming wave, and how we are not prepared.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Once again, America is in denial about signs of a fresh Covid wave | Eric Topol
> 
> 
> In the past couple of weeks, UK, Germany, France and others are experiencing a new wave. The US should get ready
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com



Denial IS a river in America. ☹


----------



## Cadence

Aeson said:


> Denial IS a river in America. ☹




Oh for a world where when the CDC indicator creeps back to yellow folks start getting more cautious and when it hits orange (or when it obviously is going to the next Friday) they all put their masks back on and distance.  And where they're already vaccinated...


----------



## Zardnaar

Only a few left in wife's office. They're all boosted. 

 Everyone who got Covid had 2 shots at least. Some got off with a sore throat for 1-2 days the worst said it dropped him on his ass for a few days.


----------



## GreyLord

Well, I think the US may have a decent protection if Delta and Omicron protect against Deltacron.  It sort of swept through the US and the unvaccinated (and vaccinated) like wildfire from December to February.  

Hopefully that leaves many somewhat protected (or moreso) than many other places where it really didn't hit as hard yet.


----------



## Imaculata

Two of my colleagues were out for 2 whole weeks. They were fully vaccinated but didn't get the booster, and still it is worst they've ever felt. Completely sapped all their energy too. So please get vaccinated.


----------



## CapnZapp

Imaculata said:


> Two of my colleagues were out for 2 whole weeks. They were fully vaccinated but didn't get the booster, and still it is worst they've ever felt. Completely sapped all their energy too. So please get vaccinated.



If you by "they didn't get the booster" mean there was a 6+ months period since their 2nd jab, then they weren't fully vaccinated.

The vaccine does not give a life-long protection. Expect to take a booster every year for many years.

Not doing this means the protection quickly dwindles. The phrase "fully vaccinated" did once mean "having both jabs" but that is now only misleading. 

Unless you took your latest booster 6 months ago or more recently, don't kid yourself into thinking you're "fully vaccinated"...


----------



## Thomas Shey

There is, apparently, some work being done on longer lasting vaccines (Moderna is at least doing so) so at some point it'll at least be yearly.  But people need to think of them as flu vaccines, not measles vaccines.


----------



## Zardnaar

They lowered the time for booster here to 4 months.


----------



## South by Southwest

Zardnaar said:


> They lowered the time for booster here to 4 months.



Do you know how long the boosters actually maintain efficacy? I don't, and I've often wondered.


----------



## Zardnaar

South by Southwest said:


> Do you know how long the boosters actually maintain efficacy? I don't, and I've often wondered.




 4-6 months iirc 

 Even after 6 months still better than nothing afaik.

 16% of hospital admissions here are boosted. A few of them only got it less than 2 weeks before.

 One of my wife's workmates got the booster and tested positive next day.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> 4-6 months iirc
> 
> Even after 6 months still better than nothing afaik.
> 
> 16% of hospital admissions here are boosted. A few of them only got it less than 2 weeks before.
> 
> One of my wife's workmates got the booster and tested positive next day.




There's nothing about the vaccine or the booster that makes that impossible.  Its just a probability game.


----------



## CapnZapp

Especially against Omikron - the vaccine won't prevent you from going positive, it will "only" prevent you from dying or getting seriously sick.

(And by "prevent" I mean significantly reduce the risk of". Point is, the vaccine isn't particularly great if you only take it to not get positive. Personally though, I have never been interested in that metric. The "not dying" part, on the other hand...)


----------



## CapnZapp

Zardnaar said:


> 16% of hospital admissions here are boosted. A few of them only got it less than 2 weeks before.



Also remember - if _everybody_ is boosted, then _everybody_ admitted to the hospital will be boosted.

Point here is the numbers will be way _way_ *way* lower than if nobody took the vaccine at all. Ergo: the percentage of boosted patients isn't a great metric.

Please do not go down the route of "percentage of admitted patients even with boosters is high; so the vaccine can't be that great" (which is entirely false).

But math can be hard.


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> Also remember - if _everybody_ is boosted, then _everybody_ admitted to the hospital will be boosted.
> 
> Point here is the numbers will be way _way_ *way* lower than if nobody took the vaccine at all. Ergo: the percentage of boosted patients isn't a great metric.
> 
> Please do not go down the route of "percentage of admitted patients even with boosters is high; so the vaccine can't be that great" (which is entirely false).
> 
> But math can be hard.




 Last I paid attention we had 95% vax rate of two shots in adults, 50% boosted and Idk the amount of kids. That was a few weeks ago 

 Not everyone qualified for booster as mass vax only started last August so second shot was January and they reduced it to four months in late January iirc. 

 High risk groups got earlier shots. 

18k+ cases with 10 deaths










						Covid-19 data visualisations: NZ in numbers
					

Track the very latest Covid-19 data in New Zealand, with new charts on the current trends from RNZ data journalist Farah Hancock.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 There's a graph there showing our infection rates. Almost flat through to early February 100 odd cases. Then everything kinda fell apart. 

 Just not socializing now full stop. We go out to a couple of favorite spots at odd times avoiding crowds. Two weeks ago we had socially distanced picknnick at the park. 

 Now I think the younger family members are talking if a socially distanced hike. 

 Brother in law's sisters kid got through fine very mild case. Mother and brother didn't get sick same house. Supposed to peak this week we'll see.

 Borders reopening early.


----------



## Rabulias

Zardnaar said:


> 16% of hospital admissions here are boosted. A few of them only got it less than 2 weeks before.
> 
> One of my wife's workmates got the booster and tested positive next day.



This does not strike me as unusual. It may take a week or two after injection to build up the antibodies.


----------



## Zardnaar

Rabulias said:


> This does not strike me as unusual. It may take a week or two after injection to build up the antibodies.




 We've been told two weeks.


----------



## Baron Opal II

Mask mandate ended 3/14. No disaster just yet.
Infection numbers for the state, new cases reported per day:

720 on Mar 1
674 on Mar 2
680 on Mar 3
714 on Mar 4
0 on Mar 5
0 on Mar 6
1,058 on Mar 7
352 on Mar 8
437 on Mar 9
418 on Mar 10
380 on Mar 11
0 on Mar 12
0 on Mar 13
_598 on Mar 14_
401 on Mar 15
299 on Mar 16
300 on Mar 17
238 on Mar 18

*Mar 18, 2022*
New cases: 238
7-day avg: 262


----------



## Ryujin

CapnZapp said:


> Also remember - if _everybody_ is boosted, then _everybody_ admitted to the hospital will be boosted.
> 
> Point here is the numbers will be way _way_ *way* lower than if nobody took the vaccine at all. Ergo: the percentage of boosted patients isn't a great metric.
> 
> Please do not go down the route of "percentage of admitted patients even with boosters is high; so the vaccine can't be that great" (which is entirely false).
> 
> But math can be hard.



Much like the debate I had with an anti-vaxxer "virologist" who said that the 20 or so people who came down with measles, in a 100% vaccinated town, proved that vaccines are useless.


----------



## Zardnaar

Made the news on CNN. 









						They were Covid-19 success stories -- then they saw massive outbreaks. These charts show what's really going on | CNN
					

Millions of people in China are under lockdown. Hong Kong morgues are overwhelmed. And South Korea is reporting the most cases per capita worldwide.




					edition.cnn.com
				




 Sister in law detected positive today, her partner on Saturday and their kid on Sunday. Neighbours also have it. 

 We've stopped socializing no family visits, D&D or whatever. Socially distanced outdoors lunch was canceled on Saturday.

 Very few relatively dying though. 15k cases today but we were in the mid 20's not to long ago.


----------



## Ryujin

Canada is officially in the 6th wave now. Waste water detections are up, however, regular testing has pretty much gone by the wayside now. Hospitalization numbers are up, but not alarmingly so, likely due to the high percentage of people inoculated or who have already had it.


----------



## NotAYakk

Ryujin said:


> Canada is officially in the 6th wave now. Waste water detections are up, however, regular testing has pretty much gone by the wayside now. Hospitalization numbers are up, but not alarmingly so, likely due to the high percentage of people inoculated or who have already had it.



In a local community group, it was "does everyone know a pile of people with covid?".

The local poop report is vertical line.

Canada has relaxed almost all mandatory measures to slow its spread.  There is about 50% (give or take) voluntary mask wearing indoors in stores.  Activities my kid is still in are mask mandatory (we had to leave at least one that wasn't doing mandatory masks).  Schools are no longer mask mandatory.

Vaccination rates among kids are around 50%; there is going to be a lot of long covid coming.


----------



## Ryujin

NotAYakk said:


> In a local community group, it was "does everyone know a pile of people with covid?".
> 
> The local poop report is vertical line.
> 
> Canada has relaxed almost all mandatory measures to slow its spread.  There is about 50% (give or take) voluntary mask wearing indoors in stores.  Activities my kid is still in are mask mandatory (we had to leave at least one that wasn't doing mandatory masks).  Schools are no longer mask mandatory.
> 
> Vaccination rates among kids are around 50%; there is going to be a lot of long covid coming.



My fear is that Covid is basically the Thalidomide of the 2020s.


----------



## J.Quondam

Our county health department last updated their covid info website at the end of November. I guess local officials , have declared the war on covid is won, so it's important to bury all the data or something. Because freedumb! 

Fortunately, info's available from other sources.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sister in laws family all had mild cases. Turns out she over indulged in gin the day her partner tested positive and used his toothbrush that night so whatever chance she had of dodging Covid failed right there.


----------



## NotAYakk

One of my kids top 3 friends at school has Covid.

My brother's entire family (in the USA) caught covid (everyone tested positive, except 1 kid, at some point).  He's still recovering, everyone else is better.  My parents are going to visit.  :/

I'm hearing the Jaws theme.


----------



## MoonSong

Ok, according to our local rulers, the pandemic is officially over. They won't keep track of cases anymore and have basically lifted all important restrictions. I hope they are right, not because I agree, but rather because if they get things wrong, it will cost lives. uff....


----------



## Ryujin

Waste water tests show that we're effectively in a new wave and yet fully 1/3 of people were unmasked, when I went to the grocery store this morning. Might be time to start ordering in.


----------



## Umbran

Wastewater tests in the Boston area are... equivocal.  They were on the rise through the first weeks of April, but now seem to have dropped some.  So, we will see.


----------



## Zardnaar

Numbers are kinda down here but averaging 13 deaths a day. 

 Masking really good in things like supermarkets but most restrictions are gone.


----------



## Horwath

In Croatia, all mandates are out.

Masks are only mandatory in hospitals and nursing home, some would say that should have been default since forever.

We have some 600-800 7-day average on 4M population. So not that bad for next to zero measures.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

The omicron subvariants are increasing in contagiousness.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/05/01/coronavirus-more-mutations/


----------



## CleverNickName

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The omicron subvariants are increasing in contagiousness.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/05/01/coronavirus-more-mutations/



Why does it feel like every time this virus mutates, we're rolling the dice and just basically hoping not to get a nat-1?


----------



## niklinna

CleverNickName said:


> Why does it feel like every time this virus mutates, we're rolling the dice and just basically hoping not to get a nat-1?



Because that's basically what's happening.


----------



## GreyLord

It's not how contagious it is, but how lethal it is.  

There are colds that are contagious, but not that lethal and so have not really been a factor in recent years.  A few versions of Covid (prior to Covid-19) also fit this area.

It is not to hard to understand why the more contagious strains are gaining momentum.  As we got better at avoiding the earlier strains via vaccines, social distancing and masks, the only way for the virus mutations to keep infecting people were to find ways around them.  It developed ways to infect people who were vaccinated by mutations, as well as mutations that made it easier to infect people despite social distancing being the strains that survived and grew.

If we are lucky, it also coincides with less lethality, but...not necessarily.  We still have a version of the Spanish Flu today, and in some ways it may be just as, if not more, contagious.  I do not think it is as lethal as it's original strain, which is why we don't make as big a deal about it today.  We can HOPE Covid-19 follows this route, but it's hard to say.

It is a hope because strains which keep the host alive longer, and have a longer period of spreading, normally are more effective at remaining around than those that kill the host or kill it quicker.  Thus, a less lethal version can be hoped to eventually be the winner in the virus contest.

I think Omicron originally was seen as less lethal than earlier strains, it was the strain that had a combination of Delta and Omicron that got people concerned.  So far, it also has seemed less lethal, mostly due to prior infections and vaccination.

New strains are coming up though, We are still in the wild west of Covid.  Worse, infection from Omicron doesn't necessarily carry immunity to other mutations of Covid.


----------



## Zardnaar

Think there were "only" 6600 odd cases yesterday. 









						Covid-19: 6636 new community cases, 7 deaths reported, as second BA.4 case detected
					

There are 480 people in hospital with the virus, 12 in ICU/HDU, as officials report a further seven deaths over the past two days.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 7 deaths average was 13 a week ago. You can test yourself these days using RATs and the covid app to get counted. 

 Few people not testing themselves though or reporting positive. It was due to 10 days off due to isolation requirements and not everyone can afford the time off work. Think it's down to 7 days now. Deaths are up to 713.

 Inflations up to around 7% and house prices are finally going down wouldn't be surprised if that bubble pops.


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> It's not how contagious it is, but how lethal it is.




It is both.  Common influenza isn't considered deadly by most people, but it typically kills tens of thousands of people in the US each year, because it is pretty contagious, and when you get millions of cases, the statistically rare things still build up.

In addition, it isn't like the only thing you have to worry about with covid is death.   But there's "long covid".  Then, there's some signs that there's risk of long term neurological, pulmonary, or cardiac issues - scarring and permanent damage to lung tissue, increased risk of heart attack, and even possibly increased risk of Alzheimer's or dementia later in life.  I hope to goodness that further research shows these to be minimal, but they are still concerning now.

So, no, it isn't just how lethal it is.  The disease doesn't need to directly kill people to have impact.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Exactly.  As the song goes, “Everything counts in large amounts.”  

Higher contagiousness leads to more cases.  More cases increases the odds of the rarer probabilities actually occurring.  That’s just basic statistical reality.

But when it’s someone close to you, “just statistics” is cold comfort.


----------



## Zardnaar

We tolerate death tolls in all sorts of things. Sport, booze, cigarettes etc. 










						Comment: The government has given up on Covid
					

Analysis - In the face of record high autumn deaths and the prospect of another surge in sickness, the government appears to have no strategy for handling Covid-19, Marc Daalder writes.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Our government kinda threw in the towel once it escaped en masse. 6 month rearguard action. 

 People weren't obeying the rules and got complacent. Can't be on alert 24/7 years in a row it lasted around 18 months and kinda fell apart.

 Once it became obvious in March or so game over. Mask use is really good in shops etc but the rules are a bit stupid. 

 You can go to a bar or nightclub eat and drink without a mask with 200 of your closest friends but you have to wear one in an empty retail store go figure.

 Another reason they gave up. 









						National Party again ahead of Labour in new political poll
					

A new political poll has the National Party again in front of Labour, rising above the 40% mark but still not enough to form a Govenment.




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 They were hiring a company to monitor social media and were responding to that. Covid response was basically the only thing they had or at least THE thing.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> We tolerate death tolls in all sorts of things. Sport, booze, cigarettes etc.



We do, but _generally_, the more preventable the death, the less tolerant we are that it happened.

Plus, as noted more than once in this thread, COVID is less of a killer and more of a maimer.  While its death toll is relatively low, the number of potentially life-altering ancillary effects it can generate is large.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We do, but _generally_, the more preventable the death, the less tolerant we are that it happened.
> 
> Plus, as noted more than once in this thread, COVID is less of a killer and more of a maimer.  While its death toll is relatively low, the number of potentially life-altering ancillary effects it can generate is large.




 Not disagreeing but it's got to the "what are you gonna do point" seemingly worldwide. 

 Here up until late last yeah the wall had cracks and was leaking and then things fell apart rapidly. Even hardcore anti Covid types kinda gave up. 

 Father in law with cancer treatment more or less went into isolation for a couple of months. But once his daughters family got Covid family dinners and lunches started up once the peak passed. RATs tests do get used and we had a family thing on Saturday night first time since sometime last year. 

 Everyone is double vaxxed+booster but the social isolation did it in. We're not really socializing as such eg going to large events but cracks are starting now eg going out at 6pm on a Saturday night. 

 I didn't particularly want to go but went anyway because wife was going hell or high water. 5/13 had Covid Granny is in her 80's and has that WW2 type mentality. 

 And we were kinda the last holdouts most people just went meh once Omicron took off. I was only going out early Sunday morning and Tuesday/Wednesday night. Supermarket and 1-2 meals a week. 

 Social life consisted of talking to masked barmaids/barista and neighbors socially distanced from over the fence/balcony.

 Also knocked out 4 seasons of Stargate Atlantis fairly quickly.


----------



## NotAYakk

Omicron's reduced death rate is mostly because it infected vaccinated or previously infected populations.  Maybe not entirely.

And in those populations, Omicron was much deadlier than other variants would have been; the other variants would not have even infected most of the people, let alone killed them.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Not disagreeing but it's got to the "what are you gonna do point" seemingly worldwide.



Keep fighting the bug.  The alternative is…

Well, Umbran pointed out earlier in this thread that a pandemic could be a species’ test in The Great Filter.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Keep fighting the bug.  The alternative is…
> 
> Well, Umbran pointed out earlier in this thread that a pandemic could be a species’ test in The Great Filter.




 We've got very high vaccine rates. The various restrictions mostly collapsed and the birders gradually reopening (if you're vaccinated). 
Milford track got booked out fast.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> While its death toll is relatively low...




So, it really isn't, though.  It is at the moment the third leading cause of death in the US - Heart disease, Cancer, and Covid, in that order.

And covid is basically a single source, while there are many root causes of heart disease and a bazillion different cancers out there.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> So, it really isn't, though.  It is at the moment the third leading cause of death in the US - Heart disease, Cancer, and Covid, in that order.



I meant as a percentage of infections.  There’s diseases out there with fatality rates over 50%.  Even at its peak, COVID never hit double digits, as I recall.  Its comparatively low death rate was one of the reasons so many science-illiterate people asked why we were so concerned about COVID.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I meant as a percentage of infections.  There’s diseases out there with fatality rates over 50%.  Even at its peak, COVID never hit double digits, as I recall.  Its comparatively low death rate was one of the reasons so many science-illiterate people asked why we were so concerned about COVID.




 Looks like Covids death toll will be around 4 times higher than the flu in total numbers and that's extrapolating to a year and it's trending down slowly.

 Could also spike again idk.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Looks like Covids death toll will be around 4 times higher than the flu in total numbers and that's extrapolating to a year and it's trending down slowly.
> 
> Could also spike again idk.



That’s seasonal influenza’s numbers with tried and true vaccines widely distributed and a relatively high vaccination rate AND enough exposure as a species for there to be actual, measurable levels of immunity.

If influenza was as new to humanity as COVID and it had no vaccines, we might not be talking about COVID.


----------



## NotAYakk

On the other hand, the population death rates of the 1918 flu don't look that different than Covid 19 on an unvaccinated population without modern health care -- 0.64%.  South Africa lost over 0.5% of their population to Covid 19 (excess deaths, not attributed; many people die from Covid without diagnosis, especially when it gets bad.)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

NotAYakk said:


> On the other hand, the population death rates of the 1918 flu don't look that different than Covid 19 on an unvaccinated population without modern health care -- 0.64%.  South Africa lost over 0.5% of their population to Covid 19 (excess deaths, not attributed; many people die from Covid without diagnosis, especially when it gets bad.)



Again, that’s still an old disease for which a nontrivial number of humans would have had natural immunity, an in an era where the vector of travel was MUCH smaller.


----------



## GreyLord

Umbran said:


> So, it really isn't, though.  It is at the moment the third leading cause of death in the US - Heart disease, Cancer, and Covid, in that order.
> 
> And covid is basically a single source, while there are many root causes of heart disease and a bazillion different cancers out there.




Off topic slightly...but...

Did you know that some think that many cases of Heart Disease were caused by Leaded Gasline?!  Even more so when exposed to it as a child (it also was attributed, or thought by some to have attributed to higher crime rates due to leads effect on the brain).

It would mean everyone born prior to the 80s and 90s would have a much higher chance of Heart Disease.  It could be interesting to see if it decreases as the older generations die off.


----------



## Ryujin

GreyLord said:


> Off topic slightly...but...
> 
> Did you know that some think that many cases of Heart Disease were caused by Leaded Gasline?!  Even more so when exposed to it as a child (it also was attributed, or thought by some to have attributed to higher crime rates due to leads effect on the brain).
> 
> It would mean everyone born prior to the 80s and 90s would have a much higher chance of Heart Disease.  It could be interesting to see if it decreases as the older generations die off.



Heart disease down, due to the removal of lead and cancer up, due to the addition of BTEX?


----------



## billd91

Ryujin said:


> Heart disease down, due to the removal of lead and cancer up, due to the addition of BTEX?



Incidence of cancer or cancer deaths up?


----------



## Ryujin

billd91 said:


> Incidence of cancer or cancer deaths up?



Deaths. But given modern treatment, that might be a flat line.


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> It would mean everyone born prior to the 80s and 90s would have a much higher chance of Heart Disease.  It could be interesting to see if it decreases as the older generations die off.




Statistically, that would be hard to disentangle from all the other possible contributing factors that have been changing over that same time.  For example, over that period you have a dramatic drop in the number of smokers, but then a rise of vaping.  You have changes in diet, exercise levels, and goodness knows what other chemical exposures.  You have changes in stress levels, alcohol consumption, and rate of being able to afford health care...


----------



## GreyLord

Umbran said:


> Statistically, that would be hard to disentangle from all the other possible contributing factors that have been changing over that same time.  For example, over that period you have a dramatic drop in the number of smokers, but then a rise of vaping.  You have changes in diet, exercise levels, and goodness knows what other chemical exposures.  You have changes in stress levels, alcohol consumption, and rate of being able to afford health care...




I'm not sure how they figured it out, but I imagine it's similar to how they also connected the rise of violent crime to lead in gasoline, and how it's reduction also led to a reduction in violent crime.  

harvard health lead and heart disease

EHP lead and cardiovascular disease

Another article for those of us not so much into scientific papers, but addressing more modern issues, as gasoline wasn't and still isn't the only source of lead entering into our bodies

Desert Sun on lead study


----------



## Levistus's_Leviathan

My family tested positive for Covid today. This is the first time we've had it. We're all vaxxed and all of our symptoms are pretty mild (slight fever, headache, exhaustion, joints hurting, coughs), but it still sucks.


----------



## Imaculata

Hope you all get well soon.


----------



## Cadence

Yellow and orange slowly creeping up in the US.  The blotch in NY has spread out, upper midwest is sprouting some, and a few more here and there.

Graduation at my University was this weekend, and the K-12 will be out before the end of the month.   Hoping we stay in the green until then.

Trying to figure out when I want my second booster (had a mild case in early February).


----------



## Hussar

In possibly good news, if things after the long holiday here in Japan go ok, they say they will lift travel restrictions in June or July. Yay. I might actually get to see family this year.


----------



## Cadence

Is that one county in the north-east holding out?  Midwest is getting worse and scattered elsewhere.

Thankfully my university in the south-east is in the sparsely attended summer semester and the K-12 only have a couple more weeks.

Summer time in person gaming isn't nearly as sure as it was looking in the spring.  Will be interesting to see what waive we're in a bit under three months when we're planning to go to DC for sight seeing.

Personally for me, yellow will mean masking and avoiding eating in.  Orange will be using curbside pick-up.


----------



## Mannahnin

That orange section in the lower right is Rockingham County, where my hospital is.  Needless to say, we're back to all-day masking in the non-patient care areas too.


----------



## Cadence

A bit bigger again this week (albeit with a few places in the NE moving back to green).


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> A bit bigger again this week (albeit with a few places in the NE moving back to green).




Without measures to stop the spread, spreading is inevitable.  The hope is, that like so far in New England, the level of immunity from previous infection or vaccination is sufficient to keep the hospitals from going under again.


----------



## Eltab

Update on a side-thread:

I have been paying student loans even though they were in forebearance, wanting to take advantage of 0% interest so my money efficiently takes down principle and I get more "mileage" out of my payments.

I got a letter from my student loan lender.*

* FINISHED !!! *


* Contrary to some common chatter elsewhere, not a bank but a specialized student-loan-only finance firm.


----------



## South by Southwest

Eltab said:


> Update on a side-thread:
> 
> I have been paying student loans even though they were in forebearance, wanting to take advantage of 0% interest so my money efficiently takes down principle and I get more "mileage" out of my payments.
> 
> I got a letter from my student loan lender.*
> 
> * FINISHED !!! *
> 
> 
> * Contrary to some common chatter elsewhere, not a bank but a specialized student-loan-only finance firm.



Congratulations! That's a huge weight no longer to have around your neck.


----------



## Hussar

As someone whose daughter just started university, I'm very jealous.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

*WHO HAD MONKEYPOX FOR 2022?


*


----------



## South by Southwest

Dannyalcatraz said:


> *WHO HAD MONKEYPOX FOR 2022?
> View attachment 248788*



Here too I'm stuck between  and  for my upvote. Friends' parents tested positive today for the latest variant, and it scares me because one of them _just_ recovered from a bunch of cancer treatments.

I am so, so sick and tired of this virus. We all are, I know--it just has me at my wits' end.


----------



## Hussar

Was a bit bored today so went back to the first post and started reading. Not the whole thread just some semi random samples. 

Oh Hussar of 2020. You sweet summer child. Sheesh.


----------



## Cadence

County I work in is Yellow and guessing the one I live in next to it will be soon.  Back to masking for us.


----------



## Umbran

With the high availability of home tests, the case numbers are becoming less reliable.  Many people around me are testing at home, self-isolating, and only become an officially counted case if they go to the doctor.  

Our wastewater signal dropped by about a third this week, though.  It may be the current surge in our area is on its way out.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mom is talking about going to a restaurant “in the near future” for the first time- _seriously- _since 2019.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Mom is talking about going to a restaurant “in the near future” for the first time- _seriously- _since 2019.




 We go out once or twice a week. Just go during quiet times. Tuesday night and Sunday mornings are the most common.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

_I’ve_ been eating out 1-2 times a week since early 2021.  Dad gets takeout or delivery near his office.   

Mom, though, hasn’t since Feb. 2020…and she used to dine out slightly less than _daily.  _So this has cut her off from a major part of her social life.   At most, she has gone through drive-through lanes- she hasn’t even joined me inside an eatery to order takeout.

I don’t know why they freak her out more than the grocery stores and other places she HAS gone into.


----------



## CleverNickName

We don't go out; my wife and I bring "out" to our door...we use GrubHub and Door Dash when we don't feel like cooking.

A lot of restaurants in our area have stopped using these services, in an effort to "bring more people in" by eliminating any other alternatives.  I don't know if that tactic is working or not, but it hasn't convinced us to leave our house.  Whenever we discover a restaurant is no longer offering delivery services, our instinct is to call a different restaurant or just cook something....not decide to go sit in a restaurant with dozens of coughing, unmasked strangers.


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> We don't go out; my wife and I bring "out" to our door...we use GrubHub and Door Dash when we don't feel like cooking.
> 
> A lot of restaurants in our area have stopped using these services, in an effort to "bring more people in" by eliminating any other alternatives.  I don't know if that tactic is working or not, but it hasn't convinced us to leave our house.  Whenever we discover a restaurant is no longer offering delivery services, our instinct is to call a different restaurant or just cook something....not decide to go sit in a restaurant with dozens of coughing, unmasked strangers.




 Only once sat in a full restaurant when members of family who have had Covid booked a Saturday night event. 

 On Tuesday we were the only ones in the restaurant this week. 

 I'm booking a Sunday night for July.

 Vaccination rates hot 95% and mask use is compulsory in restaurants and things like supermarkets and near 100%.


----------



## payn

CleverNickName said:


> We don't go out; my wife and I bring "out" to our door...we use GrubHub and Door Dash when we don't feel like cooking.
> 
> A lot of restaurants in our area have stopped using these services, in an effort to "bring more people in" by eliminating any other alternatives.  I don't know if that tactic is working or not, but it hasn't convinced us to leave our house.  Whenever we discover a restaurant is no longer offering delivery services, our instinct is to call a different restaurant or just cook something....not decide to go sit in a restaurant with dozens of coughing, unmasked strangers.



Probably a good thing. I have been bar hopping since Jan and I got covid back in the winter. Along with a few colds. I just cant live alone anymore.


----------



## South by Southwest

payn said:


> Probably a good thing. I have been bar hopping since Jan and I got covid back in the winter. Along with a few colds. I just cant live alone anymore.



I think the social isolation enforced by this virus has, in many ways, harmed people even more than the economic damage has.


----------



## J.Quondam

South by Southwest said:


> I think the social isolation enforced by this virus has, in many ways, harmed people even more than the economic damage has.



That, and it's seriously exacerbated certain divides, splitting families and friendships along vaxxer/antivaxxer, etc, lines-- like so many other needlessly (hopelessly) politicized issues in recent years.
Covid happened at an awful time in history, I fear.


----------



## CleverNickName

To clarify, I was referring to eating in public... not having or being part of a public.


----------



## payn

J.Quondam said:


> That, and it's seriously exacerbated certain divides, splitting families and friendships along vaxxer/antivaxxer, etc, lines-- like so many other needlessly (hopelessly) politicized issues in recent years.
> Covid happened at an awful time in history, I fear.



My immediate family has weathered it well. Some of my cousins have absolutely fallen out with each other. Very sad.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

payn said:


> My immediate family has weathered it well. Some of my cousins have absolutely fallen out with each other. Very sad.



We had to part ways with a long-time friend who was living with us at the time.  While always conservative, she suddenly went deep into the conspiracy-laden world of Fox, Newsmax and OAN.  She’d leave the room if someone tuned into CNN.  She was vocally anti-Fauci, the man who co-designed the program that turned out the best immunologists in the country…including my father.

And when she turned out to be anti-vaccine (in general!) and anti-mask?  That elevated tension to the point she moved out.  (To be clear, we did NOT kick her out.)


----------



## payn

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We had to part ways with a long-time friend who was living with us at the time.  While always conservative, she suddenly went deep into the conspiracy-laden world of Fox, Newsmax and OAN.  She’d leave the room if someone tuned into CNN.  She was vocally anti-Fauci, the man who co-designed the program that turned out the best immunologists in the country…including my father.
> 
> And when she turned out to be anti-vaccine (in general!) and anti-mask?  That elevated tension to the point she moved out.  (To be clear, we did NOT kick her out.)



My cousin does a big boot hockey weekend with his friends, cousins, and brothers. Obviously its been off for a few years. This year he kicked it off again. His only requirement was that everyone take a rapid swab test. Sit in the garage and drink a beer and wait for the result. If negative, then join the party. No masks, no vax, just a rapid test to make sure nobody had it.

This was too much for his brothers. Not only did they decline, they were very vocal and nasty about it. During the event, my cousin told me a number of times that he likes hanging out with my family now more than his own.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We had to part ways with a long-time friend who was living with us at the time.  While always conservative, she suddenly went deep into the conspiracy-laden world of Fox, Newsmax and OAN.  She’d leave the room if someone tuned into CNN.  She was vocally anti-Fauci, the man who co-designed the program that turned out the best immunologists in the country…including my father.
> 
> And when she turned out to be anti-vaccine (in general!) and anti-mask?  That elevated tension to the point she moved out.  (To be clear, we did NOT kick her out.)




I struggle with CNN seems long on opinions and it's to American for me. 

 ABC seems to be the best I can handle. 

CNN/aMSNBC are not crazy as such it's just to alarmist, sensationalist. Started using DW (German), and France 24 along with BBC.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> I struggle with CNN seems long on opinions and it's to American for me.
> 
> ABC seems to be the best I can handle.
> 
> CNN/aMSNBC are not crazy as such it's just to alarmist, sensationalist. Started using DW (German), and France 24 along with BBC.



"If it bleeds, it leads." - North American journalistic aphorism.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> "If it bleeds, it leads." - North American journalistic aphorism.




Yeah.  There are problems with a lot of news services; I kind of agree with Zardnaar that DW isn't bad.  But the combination of antivax and some other traits is just a thing that has settled in the last few years, and it leads to some seriously kneejerk antiscience sentiment in areas we can't afford it.


----------



## CleverNickName

As an American, I find that getting my news from the BBC is better for my blood pressure.


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> As an American, I find that getting my news from the BBC is better for my blood pressure.




 BBC is alright. It's the tone of American news media that makes my teeth itch.


----------



## South by Southwest

Zardnaar said:


> BBC is alright. It's the tone of American news media that makes my teeth itch.



Imagine living here. There are literally *no* news services on t.v. that I can watch while telling myself, "No, it's alright--_these_ folks have no special agenda." For print news there's Reuters and Associated Press, but that's about it. I've been turning to the BBC more and more over the past decade or so.


----------



## Zardnaar

South by Southwest said:


> Imagine living here. There are literally *no* news services on t.v. that I can watch while telling myself, "No, it's alright--_these_ folks have no special agenda." For print news there's Reuters and Associated Press, but that's about it. I've been turning to the BBC more and more over the past decade or so.




 I use YouTube generally go with European stuff or Onenews or RNZ for local.


----------



## billd91

South by Southwest said:


> Imagine living here. There are literally *no* news services on t.v. that I can watch while telling myself, "No, it's alright--_these_ folks have no special agenda." For print news there's Reuters and Associated Press, but that's about it. I've been turning to the BBC more and more over the past decade or so.



It's kind of funny, but the BBC has definitely had agendas too. Several years back, they candidly came out about their pushing a deliberately pro-Western agenda during the Cold War. The question - what agenda do they have *now*?

And that's kind of the point. *ALL* media outlets are going to have some kind of agenda. Not all of them are going to be politically partisan. Most going to be pro-business/capitalism because that's their economic model. Most are also going to have an eye to curating eye-catching news in order to maintain their market against competitors. Those are all agendas that are going to affect their coverage of topics and events.


----------



## CleverNickName

billd91 said:


> It's kind of funny, but the BBC has definitely had agendas too. Several years back, they candidly came out about their pushing a deliberately pro-Western agenda during the Cold War. The question - what agenda do they have *now*?
> 
> And that's kind of the point. *ALL* media outlets are going to have some kind of agenda. Not all of them are going to be politically partisan. Most going to be pro-business/capitalism because that's their economic model. Most are also going to have an eye to curating eye-catching news in order to maintain their market against competitors. Those are all agendas that are going to affect their coverage of topics and events.



I was talking about my blood pressure, not others' agendas.  I've discovered that American news outlets are bad for my health.


----------



## South by Southwest

billd91 said:


> It's kind of funny, but the BBC has definitely had agendas too.



Yeah, I know, and I've noticed those agendas becoming more ardent in recent years. It's just a matter of degrees for me: Fox, MSNBC, _et al_ spend way too much energy ridiculing those with the temerity and bad taste to disagree with them about something; BBC reporters, on the other hand, routinely go after any and all interviewees with tough questions and rebuttals in the form of, _"Well, sure, but many of your critics have said..."_ There is intellectual honor in that.


----------



## Umbran

South by Southwest said:


> BBC reporters, on the other hand, routinely go after any and all interviewees with tough questions and rebuttals in the form of, _"Well, sure, but many of your critics have said..."_ There is intellectual honor in that.




There is no honor in it if the critics are numbskulls.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I don’t know why they freak her out more than the grocery stores and other places she HAS gone into.




In a grocery store, your contact with most of the people is momentary, in passing.  In a restaurant, you are sitting still near people breathing their lung contents around you for on order of an hour.  The assessments I have seen were pretty clear that a restaurant presents more risk than a grocery store for that reason, and a few other matters of ventilation.


----------



## South by Southwest

Umbran said:


> There is no honor in it if the critics are numbskulls.



Sure, so I suppose another virtue in the BBC is they tend not to interview or cite the numbskulls.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> In a grocery store, your contact with most of the people is momentary, in passing.  In a restaurant, you are sitting still near people breathing their lung contents around you for on order of an hour.  The assessments I have seen were pretty clear that a restaurant presents more risk than a grocery store for that reason, and a few other matters of ventilation.



True, and as a medical family, we all know this is true _on average._

But Mom is extremely extroverted, and a trip to the grocery that I might complete in 20-30 minutes turns into a 60-90 minute trip with her as she socializes with staff and other customers.  Last week, she struck up a convo with a sharp-dressed man and his wife to discuss fashion, insisting I give him a couple of pointers (shoes & hats).  That alone took 15 minutes.

EDIT: Additional into- we’ve been to two unmasked public events.  One was a celebratory late brunch at a country club (6 attendees, all vaxxed) and a 50th wedding anniversary celebration with a few dozen people (again, all vaxxed).  Of course, being vaccinated is no guarantee, and we had no way of  employees’ statuses, either.  One would hope…

Yes, that’s still different from going to a restaurant, but Mom prefers to hit restaurants at off-peak hours anyway (as do I), which would minimize her risks.


----------



## CapnZapp

Eh, what?

Please don't talk yourself into believing you can't be infected while grocery shopping.

Everything indoors put you at risk, period.

It is MUCH MUCH MUCH safer to order your groceries for home delivery, full stop.

Or at least order online and just pick up the pre-packaged wares, and then get back out of the store or mall asap.


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> Eh, what?
> 
> Please don't talk yourself into believing you can't be infected while grocery shopping.
> 
> Everything indoors put you at risk, period.
> 
> It is MUCH MUCH MUCH safer to order your groceries for home delivery, full stop.
> 
> Or at least order online and just pick up the pre-packaged wares, and then get back out of the store or mall asap.




 There's a big delay on delivery here. 

 We go around 8am Sunday morning get in and gtfo.


----------



## Thomas Shey

CapnZapp said:


> Eh, what?
> 
> Please don't talk yourself into believing you can't be infected while grocery shopping.
> 
> Everything indoors put you at risk, period.
> 
> It is MUCH MUCH MUCH safer to order your groceries for home delivery, full stop.
> 
> Or at least order online and just pick up the pre-packaged wares, and then get back out of the store or mall asap.




You are, however, stuck with two problems there (and I did one or the other of the two you mention for onto two years):

1. Items being missing and the substitutions that the shopper finds are really not what you want;
2. Things you don't think of when making the order but think of when you walk by them.

Its reached the point where while staying well masked, vaccinated, and boosted I'm willing to take the chance to avoid the pretty regular irritation and extra costs associated with those.  On the other hand, unlike the prior poster's mother, I get in and get the hell out.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> Eh, what?
> 
> Please don't talk yourself into believing you can't be infected while grocery shopping.




Please don't talk yourself into believing that anyone said anything of the kind.  

We can compare risks, and say one action is less risky than another, without saying that either one is without risk.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> .Started using DW (German), and France 24 along with BBC.




BBC world service on satellite radio and skimming the Google News aggregator for me.  If nothing else, the BBC headlines from around the world are eye opening and I live their science and history programs.


----------



## MGibster

Here in Arkansans, where many people ignored masks mandates _before _a vaccine was available, precautions do not exist for the most part.  It's kind of funny though, in March 2020 I felt weird for going into a gas station while wearing a mask, but in Octoer 2021 I felt odd for going into a gas station without a mask.  I'm not really taking any precautions these days because I've gotten my vaccine shots and the booster.  I acknowledge that I might still get COVID, but I always assumed I would get it and the social distancing was just to slow the spread and give our medical infrastructure time to take care of everyone.  I don't know of anybody here who requires masks in their business, though I still see a few people wearing masks from time-to-time.  Personally, I think it's a little silly to wear a mask into a crowded restaurant and then take it off once you get to your table, but folks are free to do whatever makes them comfortable.


----------



## JEB

MGibster said:


> I'm not really taking any precautions these days because I've gotten my vaccine shots and the booster.



Unless you've recently gotten a second booster, or you got your first booster within the last few months, odds are you're not particularly well protected at this point; they lose effectiveness over time. (And even the protection from booster #2 is limited, since it's still designed to deal with original Covid and not Omicron.) For your safety and the safety of those around you, I would advise you take at least basic precautions, like masking in public.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

CapnZapp said:


> Please don't talk yourself into believing you can't be infected while grocery shopping.



Never said that.  We wear our masks when we go to the grocery store, to mass, etc.

The one thing about dining in is that you have to remove your mask to eat.  Like wildebeest drinking from a river full of crocodiles, it’s a known risk that can only be minimized, not avoided completely.  

But she won’t even go into a restaurant to order takeout.  That’s a level of exposure fractional to her exposures at groceries, mass and all the other places she DOES go to.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

CapnZapp said:


> It is MUCH MUCH MUCH safer to order your groceries for home delivery, full stop.



We have a friend that does that, and it works for her.

But I personally don’t trust others to pick produce to my satisfaction.  Or to eyeball steaks with my level of scrutiny.

Not to mention there’s all the things percolating in my mind- new recipes, variations on ingredients, stuff I forgot the last time.  And some of that isn’t optional.  I had to prepare something for a small (vaccinated) gathering held yesterday.  The first store I hit was completely out of cream cheese.  I had to bring that dish, no option.  So I had to either find cream cheese elsewhere or find a reasonable substitute.  With the latter in mind, I tried another store, and lucked out.  They had enough for me with a few boxes left over for others,  otherwise, I was going to have to go to another store that didn’t have an online ordering option.

Etc.


----------



## MGibster

JEB said:


> For your safety and the safety of those around you, I would advise you take at least basic precautions, like masking in public.




The number of people taking basic precautions, which includes both social distancing and masking, is pretty much nil in Arkansas.  And quite frankly, if we still need masks, then business like bars and restaurants should be closed.  Even if a person wears a mask, if they're going to non-essential businesses they're not really taking basic precautions.  I took basic precautions prior to the vaccine, and I happily wore my mask and practiced physical distancing as best I could which pretty much limited my retail experience to the grocery store, pharmacy, and my local game store.  But if a masked person is going int o a restaurant and taking off their mask once seated, well, what's the mask for?


----------



## Hussar

Well, it might not be perfect, but it does reduce risk. 

Then again I live where all these precautions were automatic. Wearing a mask isn’t about protecting you. It’s about protecting people FROM you. 

So you wear the mask until you sit down so you’re not infecting every person you walk past. Your server is wearing a mask for the same reason.


----------



## CapnZapp

Umbran said:


> Please don't talk yourself into believing that anyone said anything of the kind.
> 
> We can compare risks, and say one action is less risky than another, without saying that either one is without risk.



Hmm...

Saying one action is less risky than another can easily be implied as saying taking that action is basically okay.

To avoid considerable risk don't go indoors at public places.

Whether this is less or more risky than some other action is of minor importance.

Only if you you HAVE to complete a certain task is it worthwhile to compare risks of different ways to accomplish that task.

But the question is: do you HAVE to do your groceries in person?

If the answer is "no not really" and you still do it, well, we're back to my initial statement:

Don't talk yourself into the falsehood that you basically can't and won't be infected at the grocery store.


----------



## Thomas Shey

CapnZapp said:


> Hmm...
> 
> Saying one action is less risky than another can easily be implied as saying taking that action is basically okay.




The phrase "the lesser evil" seems to disagree with you.


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> Hmm...
> 
> Saying one action is less risky than another can easily be implied as saying taking that action is basically okay.
> 
> To avoid considerable risk don't go indoors at public places.
> 
> Whether this is less or more risky than some other action is of minor importance.
> 
> Only if you you HAVE to complete a certain task is it worthwhile to compare risks of different ways to accomplish that task.
> 
> But the question is: do you HAVE to do your groceries in person?
> 
> If the answer is "no not really" and you still do it, well, we're back to my initial statement:
> 
> Don't talk yourself into the falsehood that you basically can't and won't be infected at the grocery store.




Well aware that the risk is greater than 0. 

 But we're not exactly bdoung any other form of socializing outside of dining out.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

CapnZapp said:


> But the question is: do you HAVE to do your groceries in person?



Yes.

The simple fact of the matter is their employee’s judgement of what I want and MY judgement of what I want are two different things.  I get a reminder of that every time I buy cold cuts from the deli counter.  

Because there is no standardization of the settings on meat slicers (we actually used to own one, FWIW), I can’t ask for a half pound sliced to “a 6”.  Even “sandwich cut” or “a half inch” varies from place to place and employee to employee.  IOW, unless I check that first slice with my own eyes, my deli meats could be shaved to the equivalent of 2-4x the thickness of the size I’d prefer.

And no, they don’t know which cheeses can be packaged without papers between the slices and which cannot.

To be clear: I’m not saying the people providing the delivery service are incompetent or uncaring.  I’m saying there’s enough stuff I buy where my attention to detail is going to be greater than the average employee’s.




CapnZapp said:


> Don't talk yourself into the falsehood that you basically can't and won't be infected at the grocery store.



I’m pretty sure _nobody_ in this thread has stated that they believe that.


----------



## MGibster

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The simple fact of the matter is their employee’s judgement of what I want and MY judgement of what I want are two different things. I get a reminder of that every time I buy cold cuts from the deli counter.



One of the worst things about COVID for me was listening to my wife complain every time she ordered groceries.  Every.  Single.  Time.  It didn't matter if it was Kroger, Walmart, or some other grocery store, there was always something wrong with the order.  Which I thought was odd, because after the first year I would have thought they'd have the kinks worked out.  I'm with you, I don't trust them to select the produce or meat that I want.


----------



## Hussar

What's ordering groceries like?  I've never done it.


----------



## Zardnaar

MGibster said:


> One of the worst things about COVID for me was listening to my wife complain every time she ordered groceries.  Every.  Single.  Time.  It didn't matter if it was Kroger, Walmart, or some other grocery store, there was always something wrong with the order.  Which I thought was odd, because after the first year I would have thought they'd have the kinks worked out.  I'm with you, I don't trust them to select the produce or meat that I want.




 Same here they do have a button to allow substitutes. 

 If you click it you might end up with random stuff but they'll often throw in something for free. 

 Big backlog but you can also click and collect so you pick up and avoid the whole shopping part. 

 Sunday morning 8am quiet though.


----------



## Hussar

See, for me, this is the really, really frustrating thing.  Japan proved that masking and social distancing works.  That if folks actually do their due dillignence, all of this covid stuff would be done already and would have been done with a lot less fuss.  It's really frustrating to watch other countries opening up and treating things like it's all over, then another wave comes and things here get pushed back another six months because no one else seems to want to get with the program.

I look at it this way.  the population of Canada rides the train here every single day.  Every day.  You know how many trains they cancelled in the past two years?  None.  Not one.  Not a single cancellation.  Didn't have to.  Because people actually did what they were supposed to.  I'm so sick of doing the right thing and then being punished for it because other people can't be bothered.

Sorry, I'm ranting.  But, it's such a huge piss off.  We would have been done with all of this crap a year ago if people had actually done what they were supposed to do.  But noooo.  Going to Mexico this year was too freaking important.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> See, for me, this is the really, really frustrating thing.  Japan proved that masking and social distancing works.  That if folks actually do their due dillignence, all of this covid stuff would be done already and would have been done with a lot less fuss.  It's really frustrating to watch other countries opening up and treating things like it's all over, then another wave comes and things here get pushed back another six months because no one else seems to want to get with the program.
> 
> I look at it this way.  the population of Canada rides the train here every single day.  Every day.  You know how many trains they cancelled in the past two years?  None.  Not one.  Not a single cancellation.  Didn't have to.  Because people actually did what they were supposed to.  I'm so sick of doing the right thing and then being punished for it because other people can't be bothered.
> 
> Sorry, I'm ranting.  But, it's such a huge piss off.  We would have been done with all of this crap a year ago if people had actually done what they were supposed to do.  But noooo.  Going to Mexico this year was too freaking important.



I cannot tell you how many times I’ve brought up Japan’s response to people- in detail- and realize they still don’t have the intellect or empathy* to emulate their example.







* either one is sufficient, both are not required.  And too often, neither is present.


----------



## Zardnaar

Someone was wanting some sort of enquiry here because deaths went past 1000. Up to 1100 now. 

  Once Omicron got out they threw in the towel Feb/March. 

 Wife's workmate got it again 3-4 months after being sick. He's a bit of a boozer so guess what he likes more? 

 If it's the guy I'm thinking up he could put away close to 50 in a session.

 If Covid doesn't get him his liver will. Wife's probably been exposed more than once vaccine might be working. Alot of idiots at her work.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> Hmm...
> 
> Saying one action is less risky than another can easily be implied as saying taking that action is basically okay.




I'm sorry, but "can easily be implied as saying" is not proper use of the word "implied."  You might _infer_ that it says such, but the text really doesn't have words supporting that.  



CapnZapp said:


> To avoid considerable risk don't go indoors at public places.
> 
> Whether this is less or more risky than some other action is of minor importance.




I don't think you get to say what's important to others in this situation.


----------



## billd91

MGibster said:


> One of the worst things about COVID for me was listening to my wife complain every time she ordered groceries.  Every.  Single.  Time.  It didn't matter if it was Kroger, Walmart, or some other grocery store, there was always something wrong with the order.  Which I thought was odd, because after the first year I would have thought they'd have the kinks worked out.  I'm with you, I don't trust them to select the produce or meat that I want.



It's partly the nature of the job. I ordered from our local Kroger variation (Pick and Save) for a year and it was rare that we got the same shopper even though we ordered from the same location. They used InstaCart to handle their shopping and delivery, not their own employees. That made for really flexible scheduling (one of the other locals did it with their own employees but the scheduling was much more inflexible as a result) but it also meant their pool of employees was constantly changing. And if you didn't specify an alternative, the person doing the shopping made their best guess - and different people have different levels of judgment on that regard. 

That said, there were some shoppers who were really good about texting me with those choices - they'd take pictures of the nearby shelves. But those cases would take longer and keep them from shopping for as many people and making more money. So I understand why some shop quicker, make hastier guesses, and maybe don't get it exactly right the way you want it.

I certainly understand complaints about substitutions and mistakes, it's why I started doing my own shopping again once I was immunized, but I'm also understanding about the burdens being borne by the shoppers who were risking getting COVID and its complications for my protection.


----------



## CapnZapp

Umbran said:


> I don't think you get to say what's important to others in this situation.



I'm not telling others not to grocery shop. (I'm not even telling them it's important to stay out of the ICU!) I'm telling them to quit thinking it is safe or safe enough.

If you make the decision to shop for groceries in person despite acknowledging there is a risk, and that this risk is real, then fair enough. You're not the target for my message.


----------



## CapnZapp

Hussar said:


> We would have been done with all of this crap a year ago



You have my sympathies but this bit is just wishful thinking. A pandemic isn't something that once it passes it just goes away. That doesn't mean I don't understand your frustration, it only means I feel I have to remind us all even if everybody acted responsibly, you still wouldn't be done with "this crap".

This pandemic will likely not be over until it subsides by itself. What we can put our hope into is the virus mutating into something significantly less dangerous, and better treatments of seriously ill patients, making covid a less lethal disease overall. (Regarding vaccines - they will never be more than a temporary stop-gap no matter how great they work if poor people can't afford them and right-wing people don't trust'em)


----------



## CapnZapp

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Yes.



There's no need to flaunt taking a risk you don't have to take. Especially in a thread like this. You could just silently keep shopping without making a deal out of it, especially given how we people are flock animals. If Danny does it, it must be pretty safe, right? 

It's not like getting the off-brand product is gonna kill you, after all.

(And before you ask - I'm _not_ saying here covid is likely to kill you. But covid is a very nasty piece of work, that can wreck your well-being even if you are never even close to having emergency care)


----------



## CapnZapp

Thomas Shey said:


> The phrase "the lesser evil" seems to disagree with you.



I'm sorry but I'm not sure where you're going with this.


----------



## Thomas Shey

CapnZapp said:


> I'm sorry but I'm not sure where you're going with this.




"The lesser evil" says that one thing is not as bad as the other; it does not say that both are not bad.  My visits to the grocery store, masked up, innoculated, boosted and all, still have some risk.  They're a risk I'm willing to take, but that doesn't mean they aren't one.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

CapnZapp said:


> There's no need to flaunt taking a risk you don't have to take. Especially in a thread like this. You could just silently keep shopping without making a deal out of it, especially given how we people are flock animals.



I was asked if having our groceries delivered was an option.  I answered that it was not, and provided an example of why this is so.  I’m sorry you don’t like the answer, but if you’re only looking for agreement, you should probably look elsewhere.


CapnZapp said:


> If Danny does it, it must be pretty safe, right?



Don’t know why you’re making this about me.  I _never_ said anything was “safe”, not even grocery shopping.  I even noted that our grocery trips involved being fully masked the entire time.

You might wish to pick better strawmen.


CapnZapp said:


> It's not like getting the off-brand product is gonna kill you, after all.



We buy plenty of store brand/generic products.  Have done for decades.

But off-brands don’t exist for everything.  Oscar Meyer doesn’t sell cold cuts we eat.

Some generics contain ingredients contain ingredients people in my family are supposed to avoid due to food allergies, drug interactions and other medical reasons.  Some of those reactions/interactions may not be fatal, but are painfully unpleasant.  We know what to look for under their various aliases; Joe Grocer might not.


CapnZapp said:


> (And before you ask - I'm _not_ saying here covid is likely to kill you. But covid is a very nasty piece of work, that can wreck your well-being even if you are never even close to having emergency care)



Dad’s an immunologist, out of a program designed by Fauci- one of the best there is, in fact.  Our conversations on COVID are daily; we’re all well informed of the risks, and act accordingly.


----------



## MGibster

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Don’t know why you’re making this about me. I _never_ said anything was “safe”, not even grocery shopping. I even noted that our grocery trips involved being fully masked the entire time.



Danny, I don't know if you're aware of this, but several of us are Dannyist, and we live our lives according to what we call _The Book of Danny _which is your collected wisdom since 1979.  We have branches in 49 states (sorry Tennessee), and on every continent except for Australia.  So I just want you to understad that all of this _is_ all about you.  Thank you for listening to my talk.

May Danny's hand be ever on your shoulder.


----------



## MGibster

billd91 said:


> It's partly the nature of the job. I ordered from our local Kroger variation (Pick and Save) for a year and it was rare that we got the same shopper even though we ordered from the same location. They used InstaCart to handle their shopping and delivery, not their own employees.



I do want to be clear, I don't want to give the workers a hard time for two reasons.  The primary reason is because I'm not an %$#$#^#.  But a secondary reason is because I know these workers have had a very difficult time over the last few years, and, since I'm not an %$#$#^#, I sure don't want to take out my frustrations on them.  I appreciate all the people who worked in grocery stores and other businesses for making sure that I was able to live relatively well during a pandemic.  I wish they were appreciated more and paid higher wages.


----------



## JEB

CapnZapp said:


> You have my sympathies but this bit is just wishful thinking. A pandemic isn't something that once it passes it just goes away. That doesn't mean I don't understand your frustration, it only means I feel I have to remind us all even if everybody acted responsibly, you still wouldn't be done with "this crap".
> 
> This pandemic will likely not be over until it subsides by itself. What we can put our hope into is the virus mutating into something significantly less dangerous, and better treatments of seriously ill patients, making covid a less lethal disease overall. (Regarding vaccines - they will never be more than a temporary stop-gap no matter how great they work if poor people can't afford them and right-wing people don't trust'em)



If everyone had acted responsibly, we might not be done with the pandemic, but the spread would have been much more limited. And a lot fewer people would have gotten sick, wound up with Long Covid, or died from Covid. More infections also creates more mutations, so less spread might have also prevented strains like Delta and Omicron from emerging, which means the current vaccines might have been better at knocking it down when it did emerge.

Maybe it's not realistic to expect people to behave responsibly, but that doesn't mean that behaving responsibly is a waste of time.


----------



## Horwath

CleverNickName said:


> We don't go out; my wife and I bring "out" to our door...we use GrubHub and Door Dash when we don't feel like cooking.
> 
> A lot of restaurants in our area have stopped using these services, in an effort to "bring more people in" by eliminating any other alternatives.  I don't know if that tactic is working or not, but it hasn't convinced us to leave our house.  Whenever we discover a restaurant is no longer offering delivery services, our instinct is to call a different restaurant or just cook something....not decide to go sit in a restaurant with dozens of coughing, unmasked strangers.



meanwhile in Zagreb...





Your browser is not able to display this video.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> If Danny does it, it must be pretty safe, right?




*Mod Note:*
This is the second time you need to be told that nobody has said anything of the kind.  

I'm going to have to officially tell you to watch how much you are reading into what others write.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

MGibster said:


> I do want to be clear, I don't want to give the workers a hard time for two reasons.  The primary reason is because I'm not an %$#$#^#.  But a secondary reason is because I know these workers have had a very difficult time over the last few years, and, since I'm not an %$#$#^#, I sure don't want to take out my frustrations on them.  I appreciate all the people who worked in grocery stores and other businesses for making sure that I was able to live relatively well during a pandemic.  I wish they were appreciated more and paid higher wages.



Amen!

I‘ve seen some stuff in groceries that makes me wonder how many people recognize store employees as free-willed human beings and not slaves or automatons.  _Especially_ at the deli counters.

Once, I was ordering some stuff when a woman marched over angrily from the self-checkout line.  It seems she had been given TWO slices of ham instead of ONE.  For this transgression, tpshe started yelling at the guy who packaged the meat.

Another woman made EVERYONE wait while the deli guy gave her precisely half a pound of whatever it was.  Not more, not less.  (And I don’t know what the rules are on how they handle excess sliced meats the customer doesn’t take.)

Me?  I tell them as long as I have at least what I need, I can work with it.  Sometimes, I’ve walked away with as much as twice as much sliced meat as I asked for, because something _extra_ isn’t a problem for me.


----------



## Thomas Shey

I usually try to be polite to all the workers in the store.  Certainly plenty of the ones in the Ralphs I use know me on sight and don't seem to hate to see me coming.  The only time I almost said someone was about a year ago when I went into a store and saw a worker with his mask hanging down around his chin.  I was Not Amused.


----------



## niklinna

‘We’re playing with fire’: US Covid cases may be 30 times higher than reported
					

Severe undercounting undermines our efforts to ‘understand and get ahead of the virus’, researcher says after New York survey




					www.theguardian.com
				




And somewhat related:








						Geese, skuas, cranes and even foxes: avian flu takes growing toll on wildlife
					

One ecologist counted 160 dead wild birds while walking round a Scottish loch, and figures from other countries are just as worrying




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## CapnZapp

JEB said:


> If everyone had acted responsibly, we might not be done with the pandemic, but the spread would have been much more limited. And a lot fewer people would have gotten sick, wound up with Long Covid, or died from Covid. More infections also creates more mutations, so less spread might have also prevented strains like Delta and Omicron from emerging, which means the current vaccines might have been better at knocking it down when it did emerge.
> 
> Maybe it's not realistic to expect people to behave responsibly, but that doesn't mean that behaving responsibly is a waste of time.



My point is that even if everybody in your state or territory behaved responsibly for many months, you still would face re-infections continuously from other countries.

My point is that in too many cases, people think of it as if their country was an isolated island.

Meanwhile the pandemic rages on pretty much unchecked in large parts of the world, ready to return to your country the second you stop taking so much care.

This isn't meant to say it is meaningless to take precautions. Only that it wouldn't have been over even if everybody around you did.

Cheers


----------



## JEB

CapnZapp said:


> My point is that even if everybody in your state or territory behaved responsibly for many months, you still would face re-infections continuously from other countries.
> 
> My point is that in too many cases, people think of it as if their country was an isolated island.
> 
> Meanwhile the pandemic rages on pretty much unchecked in large parts of the world, ready to return to your country the second you stop taking so much care.
> 
> This isn't meant to say it is meaningless to take precautions. Only that it wouldn't have been over even if everybody around you did.



To be clear, when I say "everyone", I mean internationally as much as I do nationally or locally. I'm well aware that this is a worldwide failing as much as an individual one.


----------



## beancounter

The real problem in the U.S. is that a substantial minority of the population didn't take COVID seriously (to phrase it politely). 
It was this lack of concern that allowed it to easily spread and mutate.


----------



## Hussar

Sigh.

So, Japan is finally opening its borders to foreign tourists.  It's pretty restrictive - very limited numbers of tourist visas and only for group tours that are closely monitored.  But, at least it's beginning.  First tour group headed down to near my neck of the woods, a lovely little resort town called Oita where there are lots of hot springs and whatnot.  Pretty little place on the coast. 

Three of the tour group tested positive a day after they arrived.    Whisked off to quarantine and gracing the front page of every freaking newspaper in the ((insert rage filled string of expletives here)) country.  This group was made up mostly of tour group guides and travel agents.  The papers are having an absolute field day with this.  

Deep breaths.  Deep breaths.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Mweh.  My wife was exposed yesterday.  We're both vaxed and recently boosted, but we're going to keep some distance and sleep in separate bedrooms until she can test Tuesday.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> Deep breaths. Deep breaths.



Only if masked!


----------



## GreyLord

So, I took a trip around the U.S. recently.  Interesting the different things I saw.  Most people are not wearing masks these days.  

I saw that in some areas that Covid was rated as rising rapidly.  I wore a mask almost constantly while out of the Hotel room (Sorry, not going to wear a mask while sleeping).  Tried eating outside when I could rather than inside restuarants.

Air Travel is a mess.  I think less than 10% of flyers were wearing masks.  Impossible to social distance on a Plane.  

I think people in the U.S. are done with Covid regardless of whether it is done with them at this point.


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> I think people in the U.S. are done with Covid regardless of whether it is done with them at this point.




It depends where you are somewhat.  Like, in my local Whole Foods, you still see a lot of masks.  I'm going to the theater next week, and the theater still requires proof of vaccination and masking.


----------



## GreyLord

Umbran said:


> It depends where you are somewhat.  Like, in my local Whole Foods, you still see a lot of masks.  I'm going to the theater next week, and the theater still requires proof of vaccination and masking.




I saw more from the Northeast, but there were still a lot of people who weren't wearing them.  Better than other places (Some places in California are better TBH, many places are worse), but I wouldn't exactly say most are going out of their way to wear masks from there either.  The airports literally had very few wearing any masks at all. 

Of course, those who are really truly serious probably are also avoiding certain places and areas (such as air travel), and the areas they go to probably do have a higher prevalence of masks.

For the most part though, even in the Northeast, I saw most not wearing masks unless they had to.  Maybe it was just the areas I frequented, but I wore a mask like my life depended on it. 

Nobody accosted me for wearing one though, that was good.  I wore N94's and KN95's throughout, on retrospect I maybe should have worn the N100 (we call it the Darth Vader mask, though it only covers the lower half of the face, and has air filters). 

As I said, with few exceptions, unless forced to, I saw very few wearing masks.  I didn't go to many grocery stores though, or movie theaters, so I couldn't tell you on what those look like.  Restuarants, tourist attractions, and travel resources (cabs, planes, etc), almost no one wore masks no matter where I was in the US at the time.

NOW, depending on where I was DID seem to determine if the WORKERS were wearing masks.  Far more in the Northeast and West Coast were wearing masks than other places.  In other locations not even the workers were wearing masks or social distancing.

I'm hoping I didn't get stuff while travelling, but I will have to wait and see.  Hopefully I don't (crossing my fingers).  It could have been a BIG mistake to travel.  I set up my travel plans when Covid-19 cases were going down greatly and spent over 10K on expenses to prepay the way (so was reluctant to give that up).  With the new variants hitting the US...it probably wasn't the best idea to follow through with those plans though.


----------



## Imaculata

Everyone has stopped wearing masks in The Netherlands, but I still wear one in public transport and elevators.

Had a random person in the elevator tell me recently that masks contain fiber glass, and that they are very bad for your health. I'm so done with these stupid people! The next one is going to get punched in the face!


----------



## Zardnaar

Mask use here is close to 100% in supermarkets, enterimg restaurants etc. 

 People mostly following the rules in regards to that vax rate topped out at 95%. 

 One the street outside though it's fairly hit or miss. Avoiding public events though so no idea in that regard. 

 Sister and her family got it, wife's cousin and her partner have it, wife's workmate faked a second case to get a week off.


----------



## SakanaSensei

So glad my wife and I came to Japan before COVID. Still pretty much 100% mask use for anything that's not, like, "walking alone outside" with rare exceptions for particularly ornery old dudes. There was never the whole "this is a gross invasion of my personal freedoms" bent and so people have just taken it all in stride. It's certainly made me and my family member with a medical condition more comfortable, y'know, existing.


----------



## Ryujin

GreyLord said:


> I saw more from the Northeast, but there were still a lot of people who weren't wearing them.  Better than other places (Some places in California are better TBH, many places are worse), but I wouldn't exactly say most are going out of their way to wear masks from there either.  The airports literally had very few wearing any masks at all.
> 
> Of course, those who are really truly serious probably are also avoiding certain places and areas (such as air travel), and the areas they go to probably do have a higher prevalence of masks.
> 
> For the most part though, even in the Northeast, I saw most not wearing masks unless they had to.  Maybe it was just the areas I frequented, but I wore a mask like my life depended on it.
> 
> Nobody accosted me for wearing one though, that was good.  I wore N94's and KN95's throughout, on retrospect I maybe should have worn the N100 (we call it the Darth Vader mask, though it only covers the lower half of the face, and has air filters).
> 
> As I said, with few exceptions, unless forced to, I saw very few wearing masks.  I didn't go to many grocery stores though, or movie theaters, so I couldn't tell you on what those look like.  Restuarants, tourist attractions, and travel resources (cabs, planes, etc), almost no one wore masks no matter where I was in the US at the time.
> 
> NOW, depending on where I was DID seem to determine if the WORKERS were wearing masks.  Far more in the Northeast and West Coast were wearing masks than other places.  In other locations not even the workers were wearing masks or social distancing.
> 
> I'm hoping I didn't get stuff while travelling, but I will have to wait and see.  Hopefully I don't (crossing my fingers).  It could have been a BIG mistake to travel.  I set up my travel plans when Covid-19 cases were going down greatly and spent over 10K on expenses to prepay the way (so was reluctant to give that up).  With the new variants hitting the US...it probably wasn't the best idea to follow through with those plans though.



My brother, sister-in-law, and niece took a trip to Disney Florida, a few weeks back. That meant I had to work from home, as I didn't have anyone to spot me in taking care of my mother (stage 4 cancer) that week when I was supposed to go into the office. Of course when they came back, my brother and sister-in-law tested positive, so that was another week that I was without assistance.


----------



## Retreater

I was having a conversation with a guy at work this weekend. He was basically saying, weren't we foolish to have overreacted to COVID, when it's clear it's no worse than a common cold?
And I think we've seen how history will remember it, re-writing the books to show that all of us were stupid because we did what the government said. Doesn't mean that it's right at all - but I think that will be the narrative.


----------



## Ryujin

Retreater said:


> I was having a conversation with a guy at work this weekend. He was basically saying, weren't we foolish to have overreacted to COVID, when it's clear it's no worse than a common cold?
> And I think we've seen how history will remember it, re-writing the books to show that all of us were stupid because we did what the government said. Doesn't mean that it's right at all - but I think that will be the narrative.



That, or they'll report something like, "In some quarters people felt that the majority were foolish for following edicts that made the impact of the pandemic lesser, because they felt that the disease itself wasn't as virulent as a result of those precautions."


----------



## payn

Retreater said:


> I was having a conversation with a guy at work this weekend. He was basically saying, weren't we foolish to have overreacted to COVID, when it's clear it's no worse than a common cold?
> And I think we've seen how history will remember it, re-writing the books to show that all of us were stupid because we did what the government said. Doesn't mean that it's right at all - but I think that will be the narrative.



This stuff always gets used afterwards in the anti-intellectual crowds to "prove" their point. Many things we did were an overreaction but we didnt have the information at the time to make informed decisions. The real problem is tribal politics have overrode our sensibilities. Some folks go overboard one direction or the other. A pandemic takes time to learn and discover so you have to use the tools at your disposal. Where I feel our political leaders really let us down is in their role of mediating between health experts (who will always recommend extreme measures to protect people) and our own personal interests and risk comfort levels (which vary wildly).


----------



## Umbran

Retreater said:


> I was having a conversation with a guy at work this weekend. He was basically saying, weren't we foolish to have overreacted to COVID, when it's clear it's no worse than a common cold?




The proper answer to that is, "Funny, a _million people_ in the USA alone died of it.  Sounds a lot worse than the common cold, to me."


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> The proper answer to that is, "Funny, a _million people_ in the USA alone died of it.  Sounds a lot worse than the common cold, to me."



Unfortunately the rote resonse to that is, "They died of something else. They just happened to have Covid too."


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> The proper answer to that is, "Funny, a _million people_ in the USA alone died of it.  Sounds a lot worse than the common cold, to me."




You'll usually run into people who want to argue co-morbidity contextually overstates that, while cheerfully ignoring the almost certain underreporting.


----------



## Imaculata

I was at the Stones concert, and minutes before it was about to start, it was cancelled due to Mick Jagger being tested positive for covid!

People came from across the atlantic for this concert.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Its hard to say who's at fault for that; a rockstar, even an aging one, interacts with a lot of damn people when on tour, and some the precautions taken by some of them are going to be hit or miss.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Unfortunately the rote resonse to that is, "They died of something else. They just happened to have Covid too."




I am aware.  The proper response is the truth, regardless of the resistance to same.

"You are thoroughly incorrect about why they died.  Your position is responsible for many deaths.  Maybe someday you'll see that, and learn."


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> People came from across the atlantic for this concert.




Yeah, but... that was probably not a wise move.  The virus doesn't care how big a fan people are.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> The proper answer to that is, "Funny, a _million people_ in the USA alone died of it.  Sounds a lot worse than the common cold, to me."




 It's a large number but it's less than 1 in 300 over a two year span. 

 Here the death rate has been similar to the flu although I expect that to change due to most of that in the last 6 months vs two years. Something like one in 5000 have died vs American 1 in 300 odd. 

 Long story short most people probably didn't know anyone that died. In effect it's probably something that happens to others in far off lands you hear about on the TV.

 Not saying that's the right attitude but people here are fairly blase now but we dodged delta and the first wave for the most part.


----------



## Imaculata

Umbran said:


> Yeah, but... that was probably not a wise move.  The virus doesn't care how big a fan people are.



Several people were in tears. I spoke to a guy who had traveled to every Stones concert since he was 16. And another guy was taking his 80 year old father to this concert.

The Stones had been in seperate hotels, to reduce the risk of all of them getting sick. But despite all precautions, just as Mick Jagger was about to step on stage, he didn't feel well. They did a quick test, which came out positive. They didn't want to put the huge audience at risk, nor the rest of the band. So it was cancelled at the last minute.

Tickets will remain valid, and a new date will be announced somewhere this week. It sucks, but better safe than sorry. I hope Mick recovers well.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Long story short most people probably didn't know anyone that died. In effect it's probably something that happens to others in far off lands you hear about on the TV.




You are explaining a thing to someone who already understands that thing.


----------



## 5atbu

Umbran said:


> You are explaining a thing to someone who already understands that thing.



Not where I live, the UK.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> You are explaining a thing to someone who already understands that thing.




 Appealing to intellect is a waste of time eg doesn't matter if one is right. 

 It's about emotions with these overly evolved Monkees on this spinning rock in space.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

I officially made it this far into the pandemic without catching Covid. Courtesy of Origins Game Fair, I tested positive this morning. Just feels like a miserable cold so far, for which I am thankful. I'm vaccinated, boosted, wore a KN95 mask at all times outside of my hotel room, and only got takeout from restaurants. 

These new strains are clearly very infectious. Mask compliance was generally pretty good, but there were certainly plenty of people that took their masks off the moment they left the Origins space of the convention center. Not to mention non-Origins people wandering about that didn't even bother.


----------



## Deset Gled

Sounds like the vax just got approved for kids 6 months and up. For families I know with really little kids, this is a huge development.


----------



## Cadence

Into the orange :-(


----------



## Umbran

Cadence said:


> Into the orange :-(




Back into the green, for me.  This is the way waves of a disease work, I'm afraid.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Yeah, we're almost at the point Los Angeles County is going to mandate indoor masking again.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mom’s moving closer to getting out in the world again.  She got a mani/pedi for the second time in 3 years*, and she’s leaning heavily towards celebrating a cousin’s belated birthday in a restaurant.




* she really needed it- she’s a 76yo diabetic with some hand control issues, so if she has an issue with her nails, she really needs a professional to handle the task.


----------



## MoonSong

Unfortunately, Sis has been positive. She likely got it from her job. Now she is about to isolate and we are all hoping none of us, but specially my niece has gotten it from her. u.u


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Even with a relatively mild case, I can say that Covid was quite unpleasant. Primarily experienced fatigue and respiratory issues. Some diminished taste/smell, though that was compounded by the ever-present bitter/metallic taste that comes with taking Paxlovid. Spent five days confined to a single room in the house, sleeping for about ten hours each night.

I had to cancel one of my gaming sessions, but somehow managed the other.

As miserable as I was, being vaccinated and boosted made it much less of an issue than it could have been.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Went to a funeral Monday.  I stayed masked throughout.  Shook hands with 4 people, the deceased’s children and the minister…said minister has since tested positive.  

Clearly, I’ve been exposed, but my risk is minimal.  Trying to decide exactly how to proceed.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I was supposed to go somewhere tomorrow night.  I let the host know so he can make an in choice on my attendance.  

My risk of being a plague carrier is low, but I’m not the guy who conceals zombie bites.


----------



## South by Southwest

To Danny, Ralif, and Moonsong, I am legitimately sorry to read of this. The world is in such a miserable situation with this pandemic and it doesn't help that many people (here in the U.S., at least) now think and act like it's over. I wish it _were_ over, but it isn't.

Anyway, I'm really sorry.


----------



## JEB

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Clearly, I’ve been exposed, but my risk is minimal. Trying to decide exactly how to proceed.



If you can get a PCR test in the next day or two, that should tell you your best next move. (Rapid tests, unfortunately, aren't as reliable.)


----------



## Umbran

JEB said:


> If you can get a PCR test in the next day or two, that should tell you your best next move. (Rapid tests, unfortunately, aren't as reliable.)




If he were exposed Monday, he might not register on any test he can take before going to the event Wednesday, but he can theoretically be a risk on Wednesday.  This is an unfortunate case of where the gaps between the windows matter.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Yeah, when my wife was exposed on a Thursday, she waited until Tuesday to test.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’ve talked to my host.  He wants me there.  

I’m still undecided. I’ll bounce it of my Dad tomorrow AM.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Thanks. I knew it was a risk going to Origins and did everything within my power to minimize that risk. And it still wasn't enough. Depending on caseloads next year, I don't know that I'll make the same decision to attend Origins.



South by Southwest said:


> To Danny, Ralif, and Moonsong, I am legitimately sorry to read of this. The world is in such a miserable situation with this pandemic and it doesn't help that many people (here in the U.S., at least) now think and act like it's over. I wish it _were_ over, but it isn't.
> 
> Anyway, I'm really sorry.




I tested negative on the Monday following Origins, but by Thursday morning had clear symptoms and tested positive. Had I not re-tested, I might have easily assumed it was just regular con crud.



JEB said:


> If you can get a PCR test in the next day or two, that should tell you your best next move. (Rapid tests, unfortunately, aren't as reliable.)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’ve talked to my host.  He wants me there.
> 
> I’m still undecided. I’ll bounce it of my Dad tomorrow AM.



And due to the cancellations of others, my quandary is resolved.  The gathering is being rescheduled- by then I’ll know for sure.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ralif Redhammer said:


> Thanks. I knew it was a risk going to Origins and did everything within my power to minimize that risk. And it still wasn't enough. Depending on caseloads next year, I don't know that I'll make the same decision to attend Origins.




I'd really be severely cautious about going to any concentrated indoor event for a while yet.  We're going to probably try and go to some Halloween events come October, but we won't be inside for any long period.



Ralif Redhammer said:


> I tested negative on the Monday following Origins, but by Thursday morning had clear symptoms and tested positive. Had I not re-tested, I might have easily assumed it was just regular con crud.




Honestly, low end COVID and con crud are probably indistinguishable.


----------



## Rabulias

Thomas Shey said:


> Honestly, low end COVID and con crud are probably indistinguishable.



So instead of long haul COVID you would just have a long con?


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

From here on out, likewise. My county has slid back into green status, but as we've seen this thing comes and goes in waves, and will continue to do so with people getting complacent.



Thomas Shey said:


> I'd really be severely cautious about going to any concentrated indoor event for a while yet.  We're going to probably try and go to some Halloween events come October, but we won't be inside for any long period.




As someone that's gotten con crud plenty of times over the years (does that make me a conn-crud-oisseur?), in my experience, while very close, the fatigue and shortness of breath that came with Covid was markedly different from generic-but-awful con crud.



Thomas Shey said:


> Honestly, low end COVID and con crud are probably indistinguishable.


----------



## JEB

Thomas Shey said:


> I'd really be severely cautious about going to any concentrated indoor event for a while yet. We're going to probably try and go to some Halloween events come October, but we won't be inside for any long period.



My brother and his girlfriend's mother both caught Covid a few weeks ago from a crowded restaurant outing. Not so surprising with my brother, who (being well under 50 and with no qualifying conditions) can't get a second booster, and therefore doesn't have any particular protection at this point. (Booster #1 was late last year, and IIRC the protection wanes after 4-6 months.) The mother, on the other hand, is physically active and just got a second booster last month, and thus should have been about as protected as possible - but she still caught it. The upside is, her case was very mild (my brother got more of a standard flu-like case - not fun but at least no hospitalization).

So yeah, I agree that caution indoors is a good idea for a while, until we can get access to upgraded booster shots. Or cases go way down like last summer, but that would depend now on folks being cautious...


----------



## Zardnaar

Think I haven't gone to any events in 2 years. 

Dining out during quiet times is the extent of my risk factor. Think I went to a restaurant once in a Saturday night.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Think I haven't gone to any events in 2 years.
> 
> Dining out during quiet times is the extent of my risk factor. Think I went to a restaurant once in a Saturday night.



This will be my third season of not shooting any racing events. At this point it feels like I'm done.


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> This will be my third season of not shooting any racing events. At this point it feels like I'm done.




I went to a house con a couple of weeks ago.  With a low attendance, the hosts could make some hard rules - everyone vaccinated and boosted, and everyone tests before coming.  And, with that, three out of the four games I was involved with (played, three, ran one), were outdoors.

As far as we can tell, nobody got covid at the event.  One person seems to have gotten it on their way home, but since nobody who spent time with them (including me - the one indoor game I played), we are fairly sure it had to do with the airport, not the event.

I think folks may want to learn to trim down their events, and we can then still have fun in relative safety.

Of course, one of my players has ended up with someone testing positive in their house.  So, my home game next week is going to be delayed.


----------



## CapnZapp

Please don't downplay Covid by comparing it to "con crud".

Covid is a very serious potentially life threatening disease. Just because it is also a disease many young people shrug off does not change this fact.

The only way to minimize exposure is to NEVER go to any large indoors congregations.

That means NO airplanes, NO conventions.

Restaurants? Try to take away. Shopping? In our day and age everything from shoes to food can be delivered home to you.

The alternative is a real and prominent risk of getting infected, and everything that comes with it - accidentally killing off your elder relatives, getting this nebulous "long covid" and more.

Too many people pretend the pandemic is over. It is definitely far from over. The fact politicians in most Western countries have basically given up does send the signal there's nothing to worry about any more, and nothing could be further from the truth.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> Please don't downplay Covid by comparing it to "con crud".




Please do not misconstrue what was said.  Indeed, by jumping off this way, you managed to miss the valuable point that you could have raised - yes, in fact, "con crud" and low-end covid infection can be indistinguishable.  Which means that if you get something that feels like con crud, you should treat it as if you probably had covid.



CapnZapp said:


> The only way to minimize exposure is to NEVER go to any large indoors congregations.




Technically, dying is the only way to assure you will never be exposed again.  Aside from the dead, the rest of the world has to _manage their risk_, rather than absolutely minimize it.  Especially because this looks like it is going to be pretty much a forever thing.


----------



## Retreater

The first exposure my family had to COVID was attending the grandmother's funeral around Thanksgiving 2021. It was a short service, about 15 minutes, with around 20 people. They were distanced, they were vaccinated and boosted. Some were still masked.
So if - even after all the precautions - some of us ended up getting it, so be it. So be it if I get it. So be it if I die of it. I've done all I can for going on 2.5 years.


----------



## BookTenTiger

My 8-month-old son got his first Covid shot yesterday!!!


----------



## CapnZapp

Umbran said:


> Technically, dying is the only way to assure you will never be exposed again. Aside from the dead, the rest of the world has to _manage their risk_, rather than absolutely minimize it. Especially because this looks like it is going to be pretty much a forever thing.



This relativism is really not helpful.

When I read about people flying or taking cruises and shopping at malls and over and over again express surprise at getting infected, I despair for humanity. Deep down, they knew they took actions that flies in the face of science. THEY KNEW. They just choose to act recklessly and stupidly, despite not wanting to admit that.

Yes, you should manage risk.

But you should not talk yourself into believing indoor structures is a containable risk. Entering airplanes/ports, malls, shops, boats etc WILL get you Covid, full stop. Why? Read on...

It's not that there's a risk you reason yourself into a "small" one.

But a tangible prominent real risk you're actually going to get much more trouble than you bargained for when you decided those hand-picked vegetables or that 'con trip was worth the risk you somehow told yourself was abstract and small.

Do it once and you might luck out. But nobody acts like that. Once you've decided you "deserve" restaurant dinners (or cruises etc), you're going to stop making covid a decision point, and that's when you will have stopped managing risk, in a sensible measured manner.

The individual trip will not 100% give you Covid. But taking that trip indicates you are no longer taking actions that protect you from Covid, and _that's_ what will get you in the end.

TL;DR: Tell yourself the pandemic is over for you and it very likely won't be, for you.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> This relativism is really not helpful.




On the contrary, it is required.  Absolutism is not practical for most people.  The overwhelming majority of us cannot perfectly isolate forever - we do not have the situation, means, or the psychological makeup to support that kind of life.  In addition, it is well known that perfect, eternal vigilance fails.  It fails every time.  

Thus, a focus on _managing risk_ becomes key.


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> This relativism is really not helpful.
> 
> When I read about people flying or taking cruises and shopping at malls and over and over again express surprise at getting infected, I despair for humanity. Deep down, they knew they took actions that flies in the face of science. THEY KNEW. They just choose to act recklessly and stupidly, despite not wanting to admit that.
> 
> Yes, you should manage risk.
> 
> But you should not talk yourself into believing indoor structures is a containable risk. Entering airplanes/ports, malls, shops, boats etc WILL get you Covid, full stop. Why? Read on...
> 
> It's not that there's a risk you reason yourself into a "small" one.
> 
> But a tangible prominent real risk you're actually going to get much more trouble than you bargained for when you decided those hand-picked vegetables or that 'con trip was worth the risk you somehow told yourself was abstract and small.
> 
> Do it once and you might luck out. But nobody acts like that. Once you've decided you "deserve" restaurant dinners (or cruises etc), you're going to stop making covid a decision point, and that's when you will have stopped managing risk, in a sensible measured manner.
> 
> The individual trip will not 100% give you Covid. But taking that trip indicates you are no longer taking actions that protect you from Covid, and _that's_ what will get you in the end.
> 
> TL;DR: Tell yourself the pandemic is over for you and it very likely won't be, for you.




 Well most of us can't head for the hills. I've looked into it if things really hit the fan. 

  I wouldn't be going to cons and concerts though not that I've had much social life for the last two years. 

 Mask use is also very good here went to a cafe in a public holiday yesterday and everyone was masked for example. 

Is the risk 0 no but this month the Covid death toll was in the 20's. 

 That's less than normal flu deaths pre Covid (500+ a year close to 50 a month).  It's not much more dangerous atm as crossing the road or getting in a car in terms of death. 

 Double vaxxed and boosted so was everyone who was there. 




 Plan B if things really go to hell.


----------



## JEB

Managing risk is reasonable, but @CapnZapp isn't wrong that for a lot of people, "managing risk" has turned into "act like everything is safe and keep pushing my luck until I get sick." That's how my brother caught Covid, one unrestricted social event too many. 

Total isolation may be impractical, but far too few folks are _managing_ risk, and far more are _ignoring_ risk. And that's what keeps Covid going, and going, and going...


----------



## Zardnaar

JEB said:


> Managing risk is reasonable, but @CapnZapp isn't wrong that for a lot of people, "managing risk" has turned into "act like everything is safe and keep pushing my luck until I get sick." That's how my brother caught Covid, one unrestricted social event too many.
> 
> Total isolation may be impractical, but far too few folks are _managing_ risk, and far more are _ignoring_ risk. And that's what keeps Covid going, and going, and going...




 Covids gonna keep going regardless. 

 Most likely it will mutate into something else less dangerous.


----------



## JEB

Zardnaar said:


> Covids gonna keep going regardless.



Covid requires humans to transfer it to other humans, the less cautious and the more careless the better. Conversely, the more folks do to reduce their chances of sharing Covid, the harder it will be for it to spread. Our personal choices absolutely matter here.



Zardnaar said:


> Most likely it will mutate into something else less dangerous.



Maybe, but how much more damage will be inflicted along the way?


----------



## Cadence

I'm not sure what's less helpful in the long term - making it sound like we should mask, distance, and stay home for all of eternity if that's what it takes, or making it seem like we shouldn't bother doing anything.   Finding compromise and weighting risks realistically don't seem like human strong points.  :-/

That being said, I really probably shouldn't have gone to a concert this past week.  Doesn't fit well with masking and avoiding eating out we've been doing again now that  we're in a CDC orange area.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A bit of perspective:


This is my church’s narthex, which is used as seating/crying room during our more heavily attended services.  Those were taken at the 5PM Saturday vigil service— the one we attend- which is the first of the weekend and the most sparsely attended.  There’s not another service until 8AM, so there’s no crowd trying to get in after we’re finished.

That space is about the size of a basketball court and small gym.  Those doors are about 10’ tall.  And that bun of hair you see on the bottom?  That’s Mom’s head.  We’re sitting in the corner of the room, fully masked.  As the stragglers came in, nobody got closer than 10’ to us other than the Eucharistic minister.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Covids gonna keep going regardless.




Pretty much.  We do not have the worldwide political or economic will to eradicate it, and never did.



> Most likely it will mutate into something else less dangerous.




Unfortunately, this is a view founded either in a misconception of how natural selection works, and/or survivor bias.  Over the course of a handful of years, or a human lifetime or two, there is no such specific likelihood or tendency in nature.


----------



## niklinna

The next one is coming.









						Monkeypox is not a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, but perhaps it should be
					

Over the weekend, the WHO did not declare Monkeypox (MPX) as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). This was a big surprise. Cases are increasing and MPX is quickly establishing itself across the globe. Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)




					yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com


----------



## CapnZapp

Umbran said:


> On the contrary, it is required.  Absolutism is not practical for most people.  The overwhelming majority of us cannot perfectly isolate forever - we do not have the situation, means, or the psychological makeup to support that kind of life.  In addition, it is well known that perfect, eternal vigilance fails.  It fails every time.
> 
> Thus, a focus on _managing risk_ becomes key.



Yeah, now you're juxtapositioning your preferred stance to "absolute absolutism".

I couldn't have made up a better showcase of relativism if I tried.


----------



## Janx

Guess who got a call from the friend whose house I visited for a small b-day party (like 5 folks) because their spouse got told a cow-erker got covid and now they tested positive and aren't feeling smurfy?

Yep, the birthday gift I didn't want.  We're all fairly careful, but a chance is a chance. So...now I get to spend some quality time at the house. Which is what I usually do after I do anything social just in case.

As for severity of the disease, another friend in another state just got over Covid and it wrecked them pretty good while being mild for other in-house family members. You just never know how bad it could hit somebody.

We're vaxxed and boosted, so hopefully it'll pass us or be mild. Hopefully my friend who hosted stays mild.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> I couldn't have made up a better showcase of relativism if I tried.




Right, but you are saying "relativism" as if it was a dirty word or something.

Risk management is not about absolutes.  It is about making informed choices that depend on the outward situation, and one's own situation, needs, and capabilities.  Risk management is not one-size-fits-all.


----------



## Mannahnin

niklinna said:


> The next one is coming.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Monkeypox is not a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, but perhaps it should be
> 
> 
> Over the weekend, the WHO did not declare Monkeypox (MPX) as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). This was a big surprise. Cases are increasing and MPX is quickly establishing itself across the globe. Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com



The US had a six-state outbreak of Monkeypox in 2003 stopped with 47 cases, I believe?  We do have existing vaccines that work on this, and it's not nearly as transmissible as Covid.  The new outbreak in the Northeast has around 70 cases so far, right?









						Tracking and responding to the global monkeypox outbreak
					

Bill Hanage discusses the current state of the monkeypox outbreak and efforts to control disease spread.




					www.hsph.harvard.edu


----------



## niklinna

Mannahnin said:


> The US had a six-state outbreak of Monkeypox in 2003 stopped with 47 cases, I believe?  We do have existing vaccines that work on this, and it's not nearly as transmissible as Covid.  The new outbreak in the Northeast has around 70 cases so far, right?



Yes we have vaccines, thank goodness. Getting them out, and getting people to take them, could be challenging, but we have them.


----------



## J.Quondam

TBH, if monkeypox became anywhere near as widespread as covid, I bet that even covid-denier types would franticallyleap to stop it, if only because it's such a _visible_ disease with its blisters and all. 
I suspect that "ickiness" factor would more effectively keep a pox at bay, socially-speaking, than something that's "just a flu."


----------



## Zardnaar

J.Quondam said:


> TBH, if monkeypox became anywhere near as widespread as covid, I bet that even covid-denier types would franticallyleap to stop it, if only because it's such a _visible_ disease with its blisters and all.
> I suspect that "ickiness" factor would more effectively keep a pox at bay, socially-speaking, than something that's "just a flu."




 Yup. 

 15/18 at wife's office have caught it she's one of the three who hasn't. 

 Pretty much anyone with kids gets it via school and anyone who goes to large events. 

 We draw the line at restaurants and try for quiet times.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Pretty much.  We do not have the worldwide political or economic will to eradicate it, and never did.
> 
> 
> 
> Unfortunately, this is a view founded either in a misconception of how natural selection works, and/or survivor bias.  Over the course of a handful of years, or a human lifetime or two, there is no such specific likelihood or tendency in nature.




 Well it's more like we're still here and things like Spanish Flu and Black Death have mutated into less dangerous varients. 

  Covids following the same pattern current version is a lot less deadly than two years ago.









						Covid-19 data visualisations: NZ in numbers
					

Track the very latest Covid-19 data in New Zealand, with new charts on the current trends from RNZ data journalist Farah Hancock.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 We've had just over 10% of the deaths relative to Colorado which is similar in size and population.


----------



## GreyLord

Zardnaar said:


> Yup.
> 
> 15/18 at wife's office have caught it she's one of the three who hasn't.
> 
> Pretty much anyone with kids gets it via school and anyone who goes to large events.
> 
> We draw the line at restaurants and try for quiet times.




Are you saying 15 people at your wife's office have gotten Monkey Pox?

Is your area the center of an major outbreak starting up?

That's a pretty big infection factor for that...

Or are you referring to Covid-19 here?


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Well it's more like we're still here and things like Spanish Flu and Black Death have mutated into less dangerous varients.




So, bubonic plague didn't mutate into a less dangerous variant.  We developed hygiene and antibiotics (it is a bacterial infection, not a virus, so antibiotics can work).  

That leaves you with one example - Spanish Flu.  One example does not establish a pattern.  




Zardnaar said:


> Covids following the same pattern current version is a lot less deadly than two years ago.




So, we said that about Spanish Flu - "see, it became a less deadly variant!"  But then, in 2009, we had H1N1 (aka Spanish Flu) again.  In fact, H1N1 has risen and fallen in effectiveness several times over since 1918.  Viruses _do not stay put_.  I mean, the fact that we have covid-19, when coronaviruses have been around a long time, rather proves that.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> So, bubonic plague didn't mutate into a less dangerous variant.  We developed hygiene and antibiotics (it is a bacterial infection, not a virus, so antibiotics can work).
> 
> That leaves you with one example - Spanish Flu.  One example does not establish a pattern.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So, we said that about Spanish Flu - "see, it became a less deadly variant!"  But then, in 2009, we had H1N1 (aka Spanish Flu) again.  In fact, H1N1 has risen and fallen in effectiveness several times over since 1918.  Viruses _do not stay put_.  I mean, the fact that we have covid-19, when coronaviruses have been around a long time, rather proves that.




 Last I heard the theory was the modern plague was different than Black Death. Recent discoveries also seem to indicate it came from a different area than previously thought. 

 Symptoms don't match up 100% and it's a lot less infectious. 

 I'm just making an observation and going on what scientists have been saying about coronaviruses here.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> Are you saying 15 people at your wife's office have gotten Monkey Pox?
> 
> Is your area the center of an major outbreak starting up?
> 
> That's a pretty big infection factor for that...
> 
> Or are you referring to Covid-19 here?




 15/18 have had Covid. More outside the office as well idk the numbers. 

 My city did have a very high rate as it's a student city and once it broke out they still party etc.

 Big reason we tend to avoid town it's full of students from the University.

 I've got an event coming up I've booked for 12 6/12 have had it recently, everyone's triple vaxxed, wears masks and it's booked for a quiet night. 

 Haven't been to a concert, game, con or anything in a stadium since March 2020 and no D&D since August when Covid got out.


----------



## GreyLord

Zardnaar said:


> 15/18 have had Covid. More outside the office as well idk the numbers.
> 
> My city did have a very high rate as it's a student city and once it broke out they still party etc.
> 
> Big reason we tend to avoid town it's full of students from the University.
> 
> I've got an event coming up I've booked for 12 6/12 have had it recently, everyone's triple vaxxed, wears masks and it's booked for a quiet night.
> 
> Haven't been to a concert, game, con or anything in a stadium since March 2020 and no D&D since August when Covid got out.




Ah, that makes more sense.  

Good luck with the event coming up.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> Ah, that makes more sense.
> 
> Good luck with the event coming up.




 Well if anyone gets Covind us exposed to any of the others gonna cancel it. Happy birthday right?


----------



## CapnZapp

JEB said:


> Managing risk is reasonable, but @CapnZapp isn't wrong that for a lot of people, "managing risk" has turned into "act like everything is safe and keep pushing my luck until I get sick." That's how my brother caught Covid, one unrestricted social event too many.
> 
> Total isolation may be impractical, but far too few folks are _managing_ risk, and far more are _ignoring_ risk. And that's what keeps Covid going, and going, and going...



Thank you. You are a voice of reason.

I really hoped this thread would be a beacon of light in a sea of stupid darkness, safe from selfish and shortsighted views disguised as "managing risk" and "assuming responsibility", yet here we are, having to speak basic fundamentals as if they aren't utterly self-evident.

Each of you are free to decide to visit cons or pick your own veggies, just don't fool yourself into believing you've "managed risk" or taken a rational action.

You're exposing yourself (and thus others) to needless risk, that's what.

Don't we all, I hear you ask? Of course we do!

The difference is whether you accept you're taking an reckless action or whether you delude yourself into thinking you're probably safe and get mad for getting called out on your decision process.

Why is this important? Because it's a HUGE difference between treating, say a summer party, as an EXCEPTION that isn't automatically repeated, or treating it as variously your "right" after having endured a pandemic, or "now it's over", or some other thinly disguised excuse for abandoning rational thought because you just can't be arsed to bother no more.

If you really would like hand-picked vegs, do drive to the mall and get them. The difference is whether you gave yourself a treat once, or whether you've told yourself it's a "managed risk" to return to "normal".

And if I tell you you likely WILL get Covid sooner or later if you persist in exposing yourself, and that the risk of you, or someone you love, or a random acquaintance, will suffer serious consequences because of your needless exposure, what is your reaction?

Hint: getting mad at ME is entirely the wrong approach.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> I'm just making an observation and going on what scientists have been saying about coronaviruses here.




"Scientists" is non-specific.  Which scientists?

We can say that covid-19 deaths are down, no question.  But "lethality" is not a function of just the virus.  It is a combination of the virus and several other factors.

For instance - at this point, somewhere between 60% and 75% of the US has been infected with some covid-19 variant.  Most of the rest got vaccinated.  The number of people in the US who are neither vaccinated, nor have had the disease, is very small - small enough to not be able to sample.  Drop in lethality of the disease may not be so much a function of the disease as it is a function of there being widespread resistance. (Johns Hopkins University: "The reduced severity of Omicron could also be attributed in part to increased vaccination coverage and recovery immunity")

In addition to growing human resistance, we now have effective antiviral drugs against covid-19, reduced case numbers have moved hospitals back from the brink of overloading, and doctors now have far more experience managing the disease than earlier in the pandemic.  When we then look at mortality rates, it is incredibly difficult to untangle these effects.  Attributing this solely to the virus being less deadly is... well, in science, this might be called "naïve", meaning it is a simplistic take on the situation.

Edit to add:  Indeed, coronaviruses have been causing something like 20% of common colds for decades (likely centuries if not millennia).  The fact that we now have deadly covid-19 rather puts to bed the idea that virus development dependably trends towards lowered lethality - if that were the case, covid-19 wouldn't have happened at all!


----------



## Mirtek

CapnZapp said:


> Thank you. You are a voice of reason.
> 
> I really hoped this thread would be a beacon of light in a sea of stupid darkness, safe from selfish and shortsighted views disguised as "managing risk" and "assuming responsibility", yet here we are, having to speak basic fundamentals as if they aren't utterly self-evident.
> 
> Each of you are free to decide to visit cons or pick your own veggies, just don't fool yourself into believing you've "managed risk" or taken a rational action.
> 
> You're exposing yourself (and thus others) to needless risk, that's what.
> 
> Don't we all, I hear you ask? Of course we do!
> 
> The difference is whether you accept you're taking an reckless action or whether you delude yourself into thinking you're probably safe and get mad for getting called out on your decision process.
> 
> Why is this important? Because it's a HUGE difference between treating, say a summer party, as an EXCEPTION that isn't automatically repeated, or treating it as variously your "right" after having endured a pandemic, or "now it's over", or some other thinly disguised excuse for abandoning rational thought because you just can't be arsed to bother no more.
> 
> If you really would like hand-picked vegs, do drive to the mall and get them. The difference is whether you gave yourself a treat once, or whether you've told yourself it's a "managed risk" to return to "normal".
> 
> And if I tell you you likely WILL get Covid sooner or later if you persist in exposing yourself, and that the risk of you, or someone you love, or a random acquaintance, will suffer serious consequences because of your needless exposure, what is your reaction?
> 
> Hint: getting mad at ME is entirely the wrong approach.



And what's your plan? Live your current way until when? 2025? 2030? Henceforth forever?

In Germany we statistically had more grandparents just pass away during each of the single years people were told to avoid getting together for christmas and eastern (although in year 2 more people probably just ignored it) than total covid fatalies during the whole pandemic.

People who gave up celebrating christmas or eastern with their families "just one year" to hopefully once again safely do so next year. Except next year would have just the same, except that there never came a next year for them to catch up


----------



## Cadence

Mirtek said:


> And what's your plan? Live your current way until when? 2025? 2030? Henceforth forever?
> 
> In Germany we statistically had more grandparents just pass away during each of the single years people were told to avoid getting together for christmas and eastern (although in year 2 more people probably just ignored it) than total covid fatalies during the whole pandemic.
> 
> People who gave up celebrating christmas or eastern with their families "just one year" to hopefully once again safely do so next year. Except next year would have just the same, except that there never came a next year for them to catch up




It feels like there's a range of settings to pick....

(One end)  Hit a big Christmas concert, don't mask anywhere while shopping in packed stores, refuse to test, go to the party, and then hit New Years,

(One of many options in the middle)  When getting together for Christmas the group masks/minimize contacts for the week in advance (even more strict if it isn't flagged green locally), all take a covid test before coming and stay home if symptoms just arrived, and not plan on having a big New Years bash the following week.*

(Another end) Live isolated from everyone for the indeterminant future, even when vaccinated and things are flagged green by the local health organizaton.

... and that at least thinking about the setting chosen is good.  And that both of the extremes are more than slightly sub-optimal.


*Debate what to do if one part of the family doesn't play along well.  Recognize that the rest is all vaxxed and going stir-crazy.  Make a slightly less optimal decision in the name of family harmony, and pray that no one gets really ill, and try to not spitfully pray that if someone does that it's the ones that asked for it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> "Scientists" is non-specific.  Which scientists?
> 
> We can say that covid-19 deaths are down, no question.  But "lethality" is not a function of just the virus.  It is a combination of the virus and several other factors.
> 
> For instance - at this point, somewhere between 60% and 75% of the US has been infected with some covid-19 variant.  Most of the rest got vaccinated.  The number of people in the US who are neither vaccinated, nor have had the disease, is very small - small enough to not be able to sample.  Drop in lethality of the disease may not be so much a function of the disease as it is a function of there being widespread resistance. (Johns Hopkins University: "The reduced severity of Omicron could also be attributed in part to increased vaccination coverage and recovery immunity")
> 
> In addition to growing human resistance, we now have effective antiviral drugs against covid-19, reduced case numbers have moved hospitals back from the brink of overloading, and doctors now have far more experience managing the disease than earlier in the pandemic.  When we then look at mortality rates, it is incredibly difficult to untangle these effects.  Attributing this solely to the virus being less deadly is... well, in science, this might be called "naïve", meaning it is a simplistic take on the situation.
> 
> Edit to add:  Indeed, coronaviruses have been causing something like 20% of common colds for decades (likely centuries if not millennia).  The fact that we now have deadly covid-19 rather puts to bed the idea that virus development dependably trends towards lowered lethality - if that were the case, covid-19 wouldn't have happened at all!




 It's a new varuebtvthough presumably jumping species and omicron us less lethal. Think our death toll is lower than normal flu. 

 Masking is near universal along with the healthcare. 

 I use death toll because reported numbers not so accurate now and we don't know long term effects yet.

 And a lack of better options lockdowns are out the window people stopped complying.


----------



## JEB

CapnZapp said:


> Thank you. You are a voice of reason.
> 
> I really hoped this thread would be a beacon of light in a sea of stupid darkness, safe from selfish and shortsighted views disguised as "managing risk" and "assuming responsibility", yet here we are, having to speak basic fundamentals as if they aren't utterly self-evident.
> 
> Each of you are free to decide to visit cons or pick your own veggies, just don't fool yourself into believing you've "managed risk" or taken a rational action.
> 
> You're exposing yourself (and thus others) to needless risk, that's what.
> 
> Don't we all, I hear you ask? Of course we do!
> 
> The difference is whether you accept you're taking an reckless action or whether you delude yourself into thinking you're probably safe and get mad for getting called out on your decision process.
> 
> Why is this important? Because it's a HUGE difference between treating, say a summer party, as an EXCEPTION that isn't automatically repeated, or treating it as variously your "right" after having endured a pandemic, or "now it's over", or some other thinly disguised excuse for abandoning rational thought because you just can't be arsed to bother no more.
> 
> If you really would like hand-picked vegs, do drive to the mall and get them. The difference is whether you gave yourself a treat once, or whether you've told yourself it's a "managed risk" to return to "normal".
> 
> And if I tell you you likely WILL get Covid sooner or later if you persist in exposing yourself, and that the risk of you, or someone you love, or a random acquaintance, will suffer serious consequences because of your needless exposure, what is your reaction?
> 
> Hint: getting mad at ME is entirely the wrong approach.



In the interest of clarity... 

I do agree that many people are rationalizing risks they shouldn't be taking (to themselves and others) as Covid numbers remain high and vaccinations become less effective. Until one or ideally both of those factors changes (numbers go way down, we get upgraded vaccines), I would advise against going to any large gathering of strangers, or going anywhere outside your home without a (good) mask.

On the other hand, I don't think total isolation is necessary. For example, simply going out to the store isn't reckless, since you can manage that risk in a variety of ways: go during off-peak hours, wear a good mask, keep your distance from unmasked folks, wash up good when you get home, etc. I also think private social events can be a managed risk, as long as mitigations are in place like @Cadence suggests. (Although _right now_, I think I'd limit such events to outdoors only, and even then I'd omit certain friends and family that have proven themselves too much of a risk to the rest of the crowd. Omicron is just too damn transmissible, and I have vulnerable people to protect.)


----------



## CapnZapp

Cadence said:


> It feels like there's a range of settings to pick....
> 
> (One end)  Hit a big Christmas concert, don't mask anywhere while shopping in packed stores, refuse to test, go to the party, and then hit New Years,
> 
> (One of many options in the middle)  When getting together for Christmas the group masks/minimize contacts for the week in advance (even more strict if it isn't flagged green locally), all take a covid test before coming and stay home if symptoms just arrived, and not plan on having a big New Years bash the following week.*
> 
> (Another end) Live isolated from everyone for the indeterminant future, even when vaccinated and things are flagged green by the local health organizaton.
> 
> ... and that at least thinking about the setting chosen is good.  And that both of the extremes are more than slightly sub-optimal.
> 
> 
> *Debate what to do if one part of the family doesn't play along well.  Recognize that the rest is all vaxxed and going stir-crazy.  Make a slightly less optimal decision in the name of family harmony, and pray that no one gets really ill, and try to not spitfully pray that if someone does that it's the ones that asked for it.



Thank you for trying not to juxtapose "so you want me to abstain from things I wanna do, you must want me to totally isolate" which is the relativism that's so common. 

Nobody expects you to totally isolate. I'm not telling anyone to totally isolate just because I tell them their trips expose them to greater risk than they want to admit.

So let me rewrite your three options there just to illustrate. Not putting words in your mouths here, this is just what I consider more constructive:

(One end)  Going indoors with a lot of strangers. Visiting malls, airports, riding packed trains and such. Basically, saying "F U" to the virus, but the virus won't care. The only person getting shafted here will be you. And your relatives.

(Another end) Visiting a close circle of friends and family. Yes, they can transmit covid too, but the number of people you meet make a huge difference, and half a dozen up to a dozen people is not the same thing as being in close proximity to dozens if not hundreds of strangers. Shopping in person in exceptional cases. Not frequently or regularly, but not never either. Yes, you take a risk each time you go indoors where there's a lot of people, but if you take that risk once a month you're far less likely to catch covid than if you take that risk three times a week. So, have food and groceries delivered to you, but don't skip a nice quiet restaurant for your wedding anniversary, say. Just skip the "usual friday outing" you were accustomed to from before the pandemic.

*Note there's no middle ground here.* That's because all these scenarios with extremes at the ends are really only designed to justify you picking the middle option. *That looks reasonable, but that's a fallacy. *


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> Covids gonna keep going regardless.
> 
> Most likely it will mutate into something else less dangerous.



it will keep going until we find a vaccine that will eliminate it, like smallpox.

or if that does not happen, we will probably get boosters every year, tailored to eventual variations of the virus and treating it as a flu virus.


----------



## Zardnaar

Horwath said:


> it will keep going until we find a vaccine that will eliminate it, like smallpox.
> 
> or if that does not happen, we will probably get boosters every year, tailored to eventual variations of the virus and treating it as a flu virus.




  Smallpox was something different I don't think we have managed to wipe out a corona virus eg cold and flu. 

  So yeah I bet on yearly boosters and probable mutation into something less bad but that's not a given.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

OTOH, the mRNA vaccine tech has come to fruition.  And many virologists are thinking it may unlock a new wave of vaccines, both as replacements for older vaccines and against pathogens we’ve been struggling with for goodn knows how long.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> OTOH, the mRNA vaccine tech has come to fruition.  And many virologists are thinking it may unlock a new wave of vaccines, both as replacements for older vaccines and against pathogens we’ve been struggling with for goodn knows how long.




Great if they can get it to work.


----------



## Mirtek

CapnZapp said:


> . The only person getting shafted here will be you. And your relatives.



Or some complete strangers who you never even learn about after you and your relatives got nothing worse than a light sneeze

In Germany not even actually catching Covid is a big thing anymore. 

No symptoms? Then after 5 days you're free to go out and mingle again. No test required. 


Symptoms? Need to wait for a minimum of 2 days after being free of symptoms, then you're free to go out and mingle again. No test required. Unless it already has been a total of 10 days already. Then you're also free even if it's less than 2 days since last symptoms. 

And your contact persons are not required to test or quarantine at all unless they show symptoms and are then tested positive. Even if they are not vaccinated


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

Well, this is some hot garbage. Apparently Covid can reoccur after testing negative, even up to a week later (though it looks like some reports extend the timeframe even further than that). Despite behaving as cautiously as I had been prior to going to Origins, I started displaying symptoms and tested positive again last night. So far it's a little less severe than the first time, but still not pleasant.

Looks like it's back to isolating in a single room of the house again. Ugh.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> Thank you for trying not to juxtapose "so you want me to abstain from things I wanna do, you must want me to totally isolate" which is the relativism that's so common.




You were the one who presented this as, and I quote, "The only way to minimize exposure is to NEVER go to any large indoors congregations."



CapnZapp said:


> *Note there's no middle ground here.* That's because all these scenarios with extremes at the ends are really only designed to justify you picking the middle option. *That looks reasonable, but that's a fallacy. *




As the only one here who used absolutes, it seems you are the one who started setting up those extreme ends.

Maybe you should spend some time asking questions, like, "What does 'managing risk' actually look like?" rather than deciding that it needs to be shouted down.

As an example - my table of fully-vaccinated, working-from-home players has started meeting in person again.  One of them has a kid that just graduated high school, and they took a trip.  When they came back, one week before our scheduled session, the kid tested positive for covid.  Parents did not test positive for the entire week.  We still cancelled the session.

Managing risk is an active process of making informed choices.  It is not just choosing to be reckless.  Your characterization otherwise is fiction.


----------



## Mirtek

Ralif Redhammer said:


> Well, this is some hot garbage.



Well, while I haven't been asked personally but we apparently have decided as a society that we're cool with that.

Current situation in Germany: Since April mandate to wear masks is off everywhere but in public transport and nursing/medical facilities. And basically that's it.

People go shopping, working, partying, etc. without masks or worry. Since B.5 the incidence is on the rise and worst worry of the people is whether autumn will see a new indoor masking mandate or not. New lock downs or restrictions beyond that would be hard to sell and enforce and politicians are aware of that.

The mask mandate in public transport seems laughable in some places.

Like the rock am ring festival where 90k people were partying without masks or distancing. But security had to make sure they wore their masks during the shuttle ride from the parking lots or camping areas to the main festival area. There they then could dance shoulder to shoulder with thousands of strangers for hours and again had to mask up for the 10 minute shuttle ride back afterwards.

Or when they launched a special 9€-ticket that allows to use public transport all over Germany for a whole month. It's a one time event from June to August. People standing close together at overcrowded train stations, but are only required to mask the moment they enter the train.

If the government cared about keeping people at home or at least at a distance from each other, I could not imagine a worse way to go about that.

We had a summer party at work with 400+ people attending also without any masks or distancing. I honestly expected a lot of people to be missing the next 2-3 weeks but the impact was very low indeed. I since learned that about a dozen tested positive a couple of days afterwards, but no big wave. I was there too and it was a lot of fun.

Last weekend we were at a public running event with 12k starters and a lot of people coming to cheer and for the after party. We stood shoulder to shoulder in the starting area (if all starts were assigned an app. equal number runners we must have been 2k+ people in the staging area being slowly herded over the starting line) and later on the route we of course hat to eventually zig zag through throngs of people running slower and all of us huffing and puffing and then we filled the floors together during the after party. My warn app actually shows me a red warning as of yesterday, but that was to be expected (I am more surprised that it didn't show anything after the company party 3 weeks earlier).

Will I catch it this year? Maybe. Guess by all rights I should (honestly same could be said about 2021). Maybe I'll only catch it only in 2025 or maybe multiple times between now and then. Who knows? Maybe my 0 negative blood type truly has the extraordinary resistance that some studies indicate. Or maybe I already had it and just never noticed.

Public discussions run the whole range from "everybody will get it at least one within the next 2 years anyway" to people still trying to avoid getting it at all.

If I catch it and an elderly folk in my family catches it later? Then that's what happens. They are living their normal lives again just like me. Going out and about their business as I go about mine and we all know it about each other. Maybe it was my elderly aunt that infected me instead of the other way round? Maybe both of us just got it somewhere at the same time and no one actually infected each other?

They won't sit at home and wait for a better day that they'll might never live to see even being extra careful and missing out good times they'll 100% certain never get  back. Covid adding a little to the potential mircomort we're being exposed to every day has just been accepted.

Since 2020 I lost a 74 and an 86 year's old relative (distant) to non-covid related reasons. Just elderly people dying like they did prior to 2020 and will after covid is long over and one day I will be one of them. If I were 85 today, I would fore sure not stay isolated at home as long as the government would not force me too. I would be to worried of not living to see a potential end of Covid in 2026. Or maybe by then I'd still be alive but having lost my last remaining mobility I still had at 84 and now being completely bedridden for my remaining time on earth. Or maybe I'll still be a relatively fit and mobile 86 year old, but my friends with whom I did not meet during that time all died in between and I am the last one left.

I am vaccinated 3x, most elderly folk in my family even have their 4th dose already (may even get their 5th before I will be in line to get my 4th) and really the rest will play out however it will.

Currently more people seem to be waiting at crowded airports worrying about thousands of flights being cancelled (because all the personnel they fired during the covid lull has found something else and is not coming back to work security or luggage transport anymore) than worrying about covid either in Germany or their holiday destination. Most of the most popular holiday destination countries no longer require a negative test to enter. And neither does Germany for coming back.

Lot of covid being carried all over europe for sure and most of it likely never being registered.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

It's unfortunate. When I'm inside a building other than my home, I still wear a mask. People are out there doing things, and I wonder if they're either luckier than I was or are just posting their selfies and not mentioning the whole catching Covid part. Cases are on the downswing in my area again, but still elevated compared to this time last year. I find it personally demoralizing to have done everything right for so long and still be dealing with Covid while other people insist the pandemic is over and it's back to life as normal. 



Mirtek said:


> Well, while I haven't been asked personally but we apparently have decided as a society that we're cool with that.
> 
> Current situation in Germany: Since April mandate to wear masks is off everywhere but in public transport and nursing/medical facilities. And basically that's it.
> 
> People go shopping, working, partying, etc. without masks or worry. Since B.5 the incidence is on the rise and worst worry of the people is whether autumn will see a new indoor masking mandate or not. New lock downs or restrictions beyond that would be hard to sell and enforce and politicians are aware of that.
> 
> The mask mandate in public transport seems laughable in some places.
> 
> Like the rock am ring festival where 90k people were partying without masks or distancing. But security had to make sure they wore their masks during the shuttle ride from the parking lots or camping areas to the main festival area. There they then could dance shoulder to shoulder with thousands of strangers for hours and again had to mask up for the 10 minute shuttle ride back afterwards.
> 
> Or when they launched a special 9€-ticket that allows to use public transport all over Germany for a whole month. It's a one time event from June to August. People standing close together at overcrowded train stations, but are only required to mask the moment they enter the train.
> 
> If the government cared about keeping people at home or at least at a distance from each other, I could not imagine a worse way to go about that.
> 
> We had a summer party at work with 400+ people attending also without any masks or distancing. I honestly expected a lot of people to be missing the next 2-3 weeks but the impact was very low indeed. I since learned that about a dozen tested positive a couple of days afterwards, but no big wave. I was there too and it was a lot of fun.
> 
> Last weekend we were at a public running event with 12k starters and a lot of people coming to cheer and for the after party. We stood shoulder to shoulder in the starting area (if all starts were assigned an app. equal number runners we must have been 2k+ people in the staging area being slowly herded over the starting line) and later on the route we of course hat to eventually zig zag through throngs of people running slower and all of us huffing and puffing and then we filled the floors together during the after party. My warn app actually shows me a red warning as of yesterday, but that was to be expected (I am more surprised that it didn't show anything after the company party 3 weeks earlier).
> 
> Will I catch it this year? Maybe. Guess by all rights I should (honestly same could be said about 2021). Maybe I'll only catch it only in 2025 or maybe multiple times between now and then. Who knows? Maybe my 0 negative blood type truly has the extraordinary resistance that some studies indicate. Or maybe I already had it and just never noticed.
> 
> Public discussions run the whole range from "everybody will get it at least one within the next 2 years anyway" to people still trying to avoid getting it at all.
> 
> If I catch it and an elderly folk in my family catches it later? Then that's what happens. They are living their normal lives again just like me. Going out and about their business as I go about mine and we all know it about each other. Maybe it was my elderly aunt that infected me instead of the other way round? Maybe both of us just got it somewhere at the same time and no one actually infected each other?
> 
> They won't sit at home and wait for a better day that they'll might never live to see even being extra careful and missing out good times they'll 100% certain never get  back. Covid adding a little to the potential mircomort we're being exposed to every day has just been accepted.
> 
> Since 2020 I lost a 74 and an 86 year's old relative (distant) to non-covid related reasons. Just elderly people dying like they did prior to 2020 and will after covid is long over and one day I will be one of them. If I were 85 today, I would fore sure not stay isolated at home as long as the government would not force me too. I would be to worried of not living to see a potential end of Covid in 2026. Or maybe by then I'd still be alive but having lost my last remaining mobility I still had at 84 and now being completely bedridden for my remaining time on earth. Or maybe I'll still be a relatively fit and mobile 86 year old, but my friends with whom I did not meet during that time all died in between and I am the last one left.
> 
> I am vaccinated 3x, most elderly folk in my family even have their 4th dose already (may even get their 5th before I will be in line to get my 4th) and really the rest will play out however it will.
> 
> Currently more people seem to be waiting at crowded airports worrying about thousands of flights being cancelled (because all the personnel they fired during the covid lull has found something else and is not coming back to work security or luggage transport anymore) than worrying about covid either in Germany or their holiday destination. Most of the most popular holiday destination countries no longer require a negative test to enter. And neither does Germany for coming back.
> 
> Lot of covid being carried all over europe for sure and most of it likely never being registered.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> Well, while I haven't been asked personally but we apparently have decided as a society that we're cool with that.
> 
> Current situation in Germany: Since April mandate to wear masks is off everywhere but in public transport and nursing/medical facilities. And basically that's it.
> 
> People go shopping, working, partying, etc. without masks or worry. Since B.5 the incidence is on the rise and worst worry of the people is whether autumn will see a new indoor masking mandate or not. New lock downs or restrictions beyond that would be hard to sell and enforce and politicians are aware of that.
> 
> The mask mandate in public transport seems laughable in some places.
> 
> Like the rock am ring festival where 90k people were partying without masks or distancing. But security had to make sure they wore their masks during the shuttle ride from the parking lots or camping areas to the main festival area. There they then could dance shoulder to shoulder with thousands of strangers for hours and again had to mask up for the 10 minute shuttle ride back afterwards.
> 
> Or when they launched a special 9€-ticket that allows to use public transport all over Germany for a whole month. It's a one time event from June to August. People standing close together at overcrowded train stations, but are only required to mask the moment they enter the train.
> 
> If the government cared about keeping people at home or at least at a distance from each other, I could not imagine a worse way to go about that.
> 
> We had a summer party at work with 400+ people attending also without any masks or distancing. I honestly expected a lot of people to be missing the next 2-3 weeks but the impact was very low indeed. I since learned that about a dozen tested positive a couple of days afterwards, but no big wave. I was there too and it was a lot of fun.
> 
> Last weekend we were at a public running event with 12k starters and a lot of people coming to cheer and for the after party. We stood shoulder to shoulder in the starting area (if all starts were assigned an app. equal number runners we must have been 2k+ people in the staging area being slowly herded over the starting line) and later on the route we of course hat to eventually zig zag through throngs of people running slower and all of us huffing and puffing and then we filled the floors together during the after party. My warn app actually shows me a red warning as of yesterday, but that was to be expected (I am more surprised that it didn't show anything after the company party 3 weeks earlier).
> 
> Will I catch it this year? Maybe. Guess by all rights I should (honestly same could be said about 2021). Maybe I'll only catch it only in 2025 or maybe multiple times between now and then. Who knows? Maybe my 0 negative blood type truly has the extraordinary resistance that some studies indicate. Or maybe I already had it and just never noticed.
> 
> Public discussions run the whole range from "everybody will get it at least one within the next 2 years anyway" to people still trying to avoid getting it at all.
> 
> If I catch it and an elderly folk in my family catches it later? Then that's what happens. They are living their normal lives again just like me. Going out and about their business as I go about mine and we all know it about each other. Maybe it was my elderly aunt that infected me instead of the other way round? Maybe both of us just got it somewhere at the same time and no one actually infected each other?
> 
> They won't sit at home and wait for a better day that they'll might never live to see even being extra careful and missing out good times they'll 100% certain never get  back. Covid adding a little to the potential mircomort we're being exposed to every day has just been accepted.
> 
> Since 2020 I lost a 74 and an 86 year's old relative (distant) to non-covid related reasons. Just elderly people dying like they did prior to 2020 and will after covid is long over and one day I will be one of them. If I were 85 today, I would fore sure not stay isolated at home as long as the government would not force me too. I would be to worried of not living to see a potential end of Covid in 2026. Or maybe by then I'd still be alive but having lost my last remaining mobility I still had at 84 and now being completely bedridden for my remaining time on earth. Or maybe I'll still be a relatively fit and mobile 86 year old, but my friends with whom I did not meet during that time all died in between and I am the last one left.
> 
> I am vaccinated 3x, most elderly folk in my family even have their 4th dose already (may even get their 5th before I will be in line to get my 4th) and really the rest will play out however it will.
> 
> Currently more people seem to be waiting at crowded airports worrying about thousands of flights being cancelled (because all the personnel they fired during the covid lull has found something else and is not coming back to work security or luggage transport anymore) than worrying about covid either in Germany or their holiday destination. Most of the most popular holiday destination countries no longer require a negative test to enter. And neither does Germany for coming back.
> 
> Lot of covid being carried all over europe for sure and most of it likely never being registered.




 It's purely about the numbers now. Covid can't be stopped and pretty much everyone's sick of restrictions. 

 Lockdowns are suicidal here so the government just said mask up and knock yourself out. 

 Mask use is very good you have to wear them going into a restaurant or whatever but not sitting down. This is why we don't go out Thursdays-Saturday places are busy. 

 Noture about retail I wear masks in shops anyway I think the rules are you have to as mask use is near 100% in supermarkets.

 The rules were a bit silly in place restaurants were limited to 100 people but you could book a private event for 200 no masks required. 

 Tests aren't 108% effective but if you do two or three of them odds are they catch a positive. Boss supplies the RAT tests and they're cheap for home use. 

 The app we used for contact tracing is used to report positive cases. Contact tracing and testing the numbers mostly collapsed back in April. 

 Current case numbers are unreliable as it's self reported now and there's incentive not to report (7 days of isolation). 

We also had two years of no flu season I haven't even had a cold since 2019. There's a nasty flu strain going around atm and family who have had Covid are saying it feels worse probably because they were vaccinated vs Covid but not the flu. 

  Hospitals etc are overwhelmed but I don't think it's Covid father in law had to wait 12 hours for tests on Saturday due to various issues with the healthcare system.

 Basically the governments gone "be nice DIY aroha"!! and hope for the best if you need to go to hospital. There's a week long wait for doctors appointmentsassuming you can get a doctor and expect 6-12 hour waits for non critical care. 

 Shortage of everything atm more or less tied to Covid after effects eg border closed 2 years and government lunacy various topics that essentially priced healthcare workers out of a few cities. They're busy sodding off to Australia.


----------



## CleverNickName

Zardnaar said:


> It's purely about the numbers now. Covid can't be stopped and pretty much everyone's sick of restrictions.
> 
> Lockdowns are suicidal here so the government just said mask up and knock yourself out.
> 
> Mask use is very good you have to wear them going into a restaurant or whatever but not sitting down. This is why we don't go out Thursdays-Saturday places are busy.
> 
> Noture about retail I wear masks in shops anyway I think the rules are you have to as mask use is near 100% in supermarkets.
> 
> The rules were a bit silly in place restaurants were limited to 100 people but you could book a private event for 200 no masks required.
> 
> Tests aren't 108% effective but if you do two or three of them odds are they catch a positive. Boss supplies the RAT tests and they're cheap for home use.
> 
> The app we used for contact tracing is used to report positive cases. Contact tracing and testing the numbers mostly collapsed back in April.
> 
> Current case numbers are unreliable as it's self reported now and there's incentive not to report (7 days of isolation).
> 
> We also had two years of no flu season I haven't even had a cold since 2019. There's a nasty flu strain going around atm and family who have had Covid are saying it feels worse probably because they were vaccinated vs Covid but not the flu.
> 
> Hospitals etc are overwhelmed but I don't think it's Covid father in law had to wait 12 hours for tests on Saturday due to various issues with the healthcare system.



I won't speak for everyone, but:

I'm not sick of restrictions.  In fact, I would like to see them continue--hundreds of people are still dying of Covid daily.
I don't mind wearing a mask in public.  My wife and I still do, and we still wish everyone else would.
I hope we keep social distancing restrictions for the rest of my natural life.  (Seriously, strangers don't need to sit or stand closer than six feet.  Back up, random dude standing behind me at the grocery store.)
I wouldn't notice if every restaurant permanently switched to only pick-up or delivery service.  We order takeout 4, sometimes 5 times a week, but we haven't sat down in a restaurant in years and have no plans to start anytime soon.
I think the "everyone is tired of this" attitude is grossly overstated.  1 in 10 people, certainly.  4 out of 5, unlikely.  Everybody?  Nope.


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> I won't speak for everyone, but:
> 
> I'm not sick of restrictions.  In fact, I would like to see them continue--hundreds of people are still dying of Covid daily.
> I don't mind wearing a mask in public.  My wife and I still do, and we still wish everyone else would.
> I hope we keep social distancing restrictions for the rest of my natural life.  (Seriously, strangers don't need to sit or stand closer than six feet.  Back up, random dude standing behind me at the grocery store.)
> I wouldn't notice if every restaurant permanently switched to only pick-up or delivery service.  We order takeout 4, sometimes 5 times a week, but we haven't sat down in a restaurant in years.
> I think the "everyone is tired of this" attitude is grossly overstated.  1 in 10 people, certainly.  4 out of 5, unlikely.  Everybody?  Nope.




 If course there's people who think differently.

  Restrictions here were lifted once polling numbers started to fall. The faster they fell the faster the restrictions were lifted. 

 You guys never did the restrictions here. Our lockdowns lasted months and they were some of the strictist in the world. 

 Think Auckland had 3 or 4 lockdowns one if them lasted 4 months iirc maybe longer. And that was the third or forth one. 

 Cracks started showing though and omicron got out because people stopped following the rules.

 And some people couldn't follow the rules even if they wanted to. Homeless and sex workers for example. Sex workers didn't have the paper work to claim wage subsidies and some were caught sneaking out of lockdown cities. That's just the ones they caught.

 Trying to find a more up to date one but back in February Covid wasn't the main issue people cared about. 









						Inflation Is Now The Biggest Issue Facing New Zealanders And Housing Hasn’t Gone Away.
					

Inflation / cost of living has increased significantly as an issue facing New Zealanders in the latest Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor, overtaking housing to take the top spot for the first time since tracking began in 2018. Inflation / ...




					www.google.com
				




 The most recent one I think Covid was number 8 or 9. 

Cost of living, inflation and house prices/rent were bigger concerns iirc.

 1 in 3-4k people dying vs other stuff right now that directly effects you. 

 Context what housing problems USA has now we started on that over 5 years ago. Covid poured fuel on the fire (20% rises in rent/mortgages 20-20-22). 

Those rises were on top of 5 years or so of double digit rises. My brother could sell his house and move somewhere cheaper like LA.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I’m 54, and my parents are inntheir mid-70s.  Dad, as I’ve mentioned, is a MD.  So I spend a LOT of time in medical offices of one kind or another.

And despite _every last one of them posting signs *requiring* masking, _there is always a number of people in the waiting rooms who do not.  And the staff are reluctant to enforce those policies,


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m 54, and my parents are inntheir mid-70s.  Dad, as I’ve mentioned, is a MD.  So I spend a LOT of time in medical offices of one kind or another.
> 
> And despite _every last one of them posting signs *requiring* masking, _there is always a number of people in the waiting rooms who do not.  And the staff are reluctant to enforce those policies,




 No mask here you don't get in the door and the fuzz can be called if necessary. Or they just refuse to serve you. 

 Retail might have a bigger problem though as that's where most of the BS seems to happen. 

 Haven't seen it myself but there's anecdotes and media about the asshats.

 Usually don't wear mask exercising or walking around the neighborhood then just social distance. 

 In town on the way to restaurant or whatever we wear them but it's kinda 50/50 outside with everyone else.


----------



## JEB

Umbran said:


> You were the one who presented this as, and I quote, "The only way to minimize exposure is to NEVER go to any large indoors congregations."



To be fair, that is a good way to _minimize_ exposure. But "minimizing risk" and "managing risk" are not the same thing, the latter allows for a degree of risk but tries to compensate for it. (And both are preferable to the all-too-popular "ignoring risk"...)


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> And despite _every last one of them posting signs *requiring* masking, _there is always a number of people in the waiting rooms who do not.  And the staff are reluctant to enforce those policies,




My wife does veterinary house calls.  Getting people to wear masks in their own homes is getting harder and harder.


----------



## Thomas Shey

CapnZapp said:


> Please don't downplay Covid by comparing it to "con crud".




No one said it was con crud.  What we were saying was that mild cases might be indistinguishable from con crud, which is absolutely true.  That makes no statement about the relative hazard involved.


----------



## Cadence

I was kind of hoping the new CDC color coding in the US would have worked, with people masking and distancing when it hit yellow, and pretty much staying home at red.   Didn't really have much hope though.


----------



## SakanaSensei

CleverNickName said:


> I won't speak for everyone, but:
> 
> I'm not sick of restrictions.  In fact, I would like to see them continue--hundreds of people are still dying of Covid daily.
> I don't mind wearing a mask in public.  My wife and I still do, and we still wish everyone else would.
> I hope we keep social distancing restrictions for the rest of my natural life.  (Seriously, strangers don't need to sit or stand closer than six feet.  Back up, random dude standing behind me at the grocery store.)
> I wouldn't notice if every restaurant permanently switched to only pick-up or delivery service.  We order takeout 4, sometimes 5 times a week, but we haven't sat down in a restaurant in years.
> I think the "everyone is tired of this" attitude is grossly overstated.  1 in 10 people, certainly.  4 out of 5, unlikely.  Everybody?  Nope.



I think you can tell who is “tired of it” pretty easily by mask usage. Here in Japan? Over 95% of people are still taking steps to protect their neighbors. In the west I’ve got no idea other than what I hear from friends, which makes it sound like a different world entirely. I don’t think anyone still actually taking this seriously is out in public without a mask, especially post Omicron rearing its head.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’m 54, and my parents are inntheir mid-70s.  Dad, as I’ve mentioned, is a MD.  So I spend a LOT of time in medical offices of one kind or another.
> 
> And despite _every last one of them posting signs *requiring* masking, _there is always a number of people in the waiting rooms who do not.  And the staff are reluctant to enforce those policies,




I'm glad to say I haven't seen that in the doctor's offices I go to--and in at least my GP's office they'll actively tell you to leave if you don't.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mister_Fish said:


> I think you can tell who is “tired of it” pretty easily by mask usage. Here in Japan? Over 95% of people are still taking steps to protect their neighbors. In the west I’ve got no idea other than what I hear from friends, which makes it sound like a different world entirely. I don’t think anyone still actually taking this seriously is out in public without a mask, especially post Omicron rearing its head.



 Japan's probably different to most if the world and had cultural tendencies to wear masks pre Covid. 

 My theory is most people live in bubbles. Eg "everyone around me does XYZ". XYZ varies by location though.

 Bubble living is fine just as long as you're aware of it. My country has been a bigger bubble last two years.


----------



## Mirtek

When the mask mandate was lifted basically everywhere a lot of people in polls claimed that they would just continue to mask while shopping. Early May the groceries chains reported that a "majority" of customers were still masked (51%? 60%? 80%? never specified that vague statement further).

Nowadays it's rare to spot a mask in a full store even at the busiest shopping hours.

That coupled with the overwhelming negative Feedback to any poll about tightening restrictions this autumn and people frolicing by the thousands and tens of thousands at Festivals and everyday activities unmasked and undistanced I'd conclude it's pretty much 9 in 10 to 8 in 10 that are tired with restrictions

At least in Germany. Seeing other european neighbours in the news, it looks pretty much the same. 



CleverNickName said:


> I think the "everyone is tired of this" attitude is grossly overstated.  1 in 10 people, certainly.  4 out of 5, unlikely.  Everybody?  Nope.


----------



## SakanaSensei

Zardnaar said:


> Japan's probably different to most if the world and had cultural tendencies to wear masks pre Covid.
> 
> My theory is most people live in bubbles. Eg "everyone around me does XYZ". XYZ varies by location though.
> 
> Bubble living is fine just as long as you're aware of it. My country has been a bigger bubble last two years.



I still think my point stands though that who's masking tells you who's taking things seriously. Anyone who is not wearing a mask and going out into crowded public spaces will either be up front with you and tell you they're over it (oh hey, my family members) or will tell you they're taking it seriously when their actions show you they aren't. It just so happens that culture can have an effect on how many people, in aggregate, tend to take it seriously.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mister_Fish said:


> I still think my point stands though that who's masking tells you who's taking things seriously. Anyone who is not wearing a mask and going out into crowded public spaces will either be up front with you and tell you they're over it (oh hey, my family members) or will tell you they're taking it seriously when their actions show you they aren't. It just so happens that culture can have an effect on how many people, in aggregate, tend to take it seriously.




 True most people don't care about Covid anymore it seems. That feeds into how seriously they take it. 

  Governmente can ask but there's limits on what they can compel and with Covid you need near 100% buy in otherwise it all falls apart. 

 Once things fall apart here it was like flicking a switch vaccine passes and most restrictions went out the window.


----------



## Horwath

Mister_Fish said:


> I still think my point stands though that who's masking tells you who's taking things seriously. Anyone who is not wearing a mask and going out into crowded public spaces will either be up front with you and tell you they're over it (oh hey, my family members) or will tell you they're taking it seriously when their actions show you they aren't. It just so happens that culture can have an effect on how many people, in aggregate, tend to take it seriously.



Without being too political,

We can thank Mr. Putin for everyone not caring about Covid in Europe.

When you have a lunatic attacking a sovereign country relatively closely to you and rattling nuclear sabre, it's hard to worry about disease that has (relatively) low mortality rate.

Add to it the rampaging inflation and lowering of standards because of it, and Covid has become a 3rd tier news.

There are really more pressing things to be thinking about right now.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> My wife does veterinary house calls.  Getting people to wear masks in their own homes is getting harder and harder.



Can relate.  Even as careful as we are, sometime even WE forget at home.  Or while out- Mom forgot hers in the car while we were in a store last week.  I didn’t notice because I’m pushing the wheelchair, so couldn’t see her face.  She didn’t realize it until we were on the way to the register, at which point she pulled a fresh one from her purse.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Right now, Adrian Belew, Todd Rundgren, and other musical luminaries are embarking on a tour to commemorate the music and legacy of David Bowie.  Right now, there are no tour dates scheduled anywhere near me.  If/when local dates are announced, I’ll have to give it a hard think and evaluate what the local risk factors are.  In all probability, I’ll attend masked if I do go.

Which has been my position for the past couple of years as I passed on several concerts I’d normally have jumped at or taken a road trip to attend.  The risk/reward ratio was not right.

I _did _attend a couple of jewelry conventions, but those are much more sparsely attended than a concert.


----------



## Hussar

CapnZapp said:


> Thank you for trying not to juxtapose "so you want me to abstain from things I wanna do, you must want me to totally isolate" which is the relativism that's so common.
> 
> Nobody expects you to totally isolate. I'm not telling anyone to totally isolate just because I tell them their trips expose them to greater risk than they want to admit.
> /snip
> 
> *Note there's no middle ground here.* That's because all these scenarios with extremes at the ends are really only designed to justify you picking the middle option. *That looks reasonable, but that's a fallacy. *



Umm, hold's up hand

I live in a country that never locked down.  I live in Japan.  Where the entire population of most countries rides a train every single day.  I now ride the train every week to go to a job.  And every single person on that train is wearing a mask.  No fuss.  No drama.  Just wear the damn thing.  My classrooms keep the windows open and the fans on and try to keep the students a little distance from each other.  Vaccination rates have been... spotty but not too bad.  

And despite probably the oldest population on the planet, we still have a lower death and infection rate than virtually anywhere.  The idea that there's no middle ground seems kinda messed up.  There really is a middle ground, but, it means that people actually have to DO it rather than expecting everyone else to.


----------



## SakanaSensei

Hussar said:


> Umm, hold's up hand
> 
> I live in a country that never locked down.  I live in Japan.  Where the entire population of most countries rides a train every single day.  I now ride the train every week to go to a job.  And every single person on that train is wearing a mask.  No fuss.  No drama.  Just wear the damn thing.  My classrooms keep the windows open and the fans on and try to keep the students a little distance from each other.  Vaccination rates have been... spotty but not too bad.
> 
> And despite probably the oldest population on the planet, we still have a lower death and infection rate than virtually anywhere.  The idea that there's no middle ground seems kinda messed up.  There really is a middle ground, but, it means that people actually have to DO it rather than expecting everyone else to.



Oh hey, fellow immigrant to Japan. I don't know when you got here, but my wife and I arrived in summer 2019. At this point I'm afraid to think about going back to my home country: that culture shock would be so, so much worse than it was the other way around given the past 3 years of e v e r y t h i n g.


----------



## Hussar

Mister_Fish said:


> Oh hey, fellow immigrant to Japan. I don't know when you got here, but my wife and I arrived in summer 2019. At this point I'm afraid to think about going back to my home country: that culture shock would be so, so much worse than it was the other way around given the past 3 years of e v e r y t h i n g.



Heh.  I've been here since 2002.  I couldn't imagine going back home now.  Even being Canadian, after the events of the past couple of years, I just keep nodding to myself that I'm really glad I've made a home here.  I just can't even... there are just no words.


----------



## Mirtek

Horwath said:


> Without being too political,
> 
> We can thank Mr. Putin for everyone not caring about Covid in Europe.
> 
> When you have a lunatic attacking a sovereign country relatively closely to you and rattling nuclear sabre, it's hard to worry about disease that has (relatively) low mortality rate.
> 
> Add to it the rampaging inflation and lowering of standards because of it, and Covid has become a 3rd tier news.
> 
> There are really more pressing things to be thinking about right now.



Don't think so. Care about covid went down to almost zero last summer too and Ukraine is not even top news anymore in Germany.  Just a couple of seconds at the end of the daily news like "oh yeah, that's also still going on somewhere east"

People being upset about cancelled flights gets more time than fighting in Ukraine. It already got general public bored and is just background noise.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Can relate.  Even as careful as we are, sometime even WE forget at home.  Or while out- Mom forgot hers in the car while we were in a store last week.  I didn’t notice because I’m pushing the wheelchair, so couldn’t see her face.  She didn’t realize it until we were on the way to the register, at which point she pulled a fresh one from her purse.




 It's the intent that matters. Brain farts happen to everyone. 

 I've forgotten makes before basically means some doesn't get done or go without if one can't get a mask.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Can relate.  Even as careful as we are, sometime even WE forget at home.




This isn't about forgetting.  For example....

My wife goes to a house call, and is met at the door by the lady of the house.  She tells my wife, "Oh, gee, I'm so sorry, I just _have no idea_ where our masks have gone to!"

Her husband's voice then comes from the kitchen, "Dear, they are out in the car, right _where you told me to hide them_ before the doctor showed up!"


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

I am exhausted (well, aside from the actual symptom from Covid) by another year spent isolated, socially distancing, not being able to go out without a mask on. I also am well aware of the importance of all these things in trying to reduce the spread of Covid. I miss going out to eat, going to concerts, seeing people in person.

But no matter how much I want life to go back to normal, I am very much aware that we are not there yet, and no amount of pretending everything is fine is going to do anything other than make 2023 another year like the last one. I very much wish that the country hadn't relaxed restrictions, and indeed, had been even more strict from the get-go. 



CleverNickName said:


> I won't speak for everyone, but:
> 
> I'm not sick of restrictions.  In fact, I would like to see them continue--hundreds of people are still dying of Covid daily.
> I don't mind wearing a mask in public.  My wife and I still do, and we still wish everyone else would.
> I hope we keep social distancing restrictions for the rest of my natural life.  (Seriously, strangers don't need to sit or stand closer than six feet.  Back up, random dude standing behind me at the grocery store.)
> I wouldn't notice if every restaurant permanently switched to only pick-up or delivery service.  We order takeout 4, sometimes 5 times a week, but we haven't sat down in a restaurant in years.
> I think the "everyone is tired of this" attitude is grossly overstated.  1 in 10 people, certainly.  4 out of 5, unlikely.  Everybody?  Nope.




Nuance appears to be lost on many here in the U.S. All they see is "it's okay to not wear masks" and not all the caveats. 



Cadence said:


> I was kind of hoping the new CDC color coding in the US would have worked, with people masking and distancing when it hit yellow, and pretty much staying home at red.   Didn't really have much hope though.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> This isn't about forgetting.  For example....
> 
> My wife goes to a house call, and is met at the door by the lady of the house.  She tells my wife, "Oh, gee, I'm so sorry, I just _have no idea_ where our masks have gone to!"
> 
> Her husband's voice then comes from the kitchen, "Dear, they are out in the car, right _where you told me to hide them_ before the doctor showed up!"



Oh yeah, I understood.  But I was trying to put a more positive spin on things.

It’s getting so that those who are still masking in public- like us- are becoming a clear minority.  As long as downward trends continue, I’m sorta OK with that.  But I fear that if we get another major outbreak, things could get ugly.  Some people have gone _feral_ the past few years.


----------



## MoonSong

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Oh yeah, I understood.  But I was trying to put a more positive spin on things.
> 
> It’s getting so that those who are still masking in public- like us- are becoming a clear minority.  As long as downward trends continue, I’m sorta OK with that.  But I fear that if we get another major outbreak, things could get ugly.  Some people have gone _feral_ the past few years.



In my country we are in the middle of a new major outbreak. People still don't mask. Turns out my mother and I might have it. We haven't taken a test yet, but might once we feel better.


----------



## Mirtek

In Germany a council of scientists and experts was tasked with an evaluation of all the different Covid meassures that have been taken during the past 3 years.

Today they finally publishing their 165 pages long paper.

This result will be crucial for any further meassures


----------



## briggart

In Italy there's a new outbreak ramping up, driven by Omicron 5 high transmission rate coupled with the (almost total) end of mask mandate. We have one of the highest rate of vaccination and of booster administration in the world, so things are still reasonably under control, but it will quickly become painful if people do not start behaving soon.


----------



## CapnZapp

briggart said:


> it will quickly become painful if people do not start behaving soon.



People don't just start taking responsibility.

They only act responsibly if forced to by authorities.

So your sentence can be rewritten as: "it will quickly become painful if the authorities does not implement unpopular measures soon."


----------



## briggart

CapnZapp said:


> People don't just start taking responsibility.
> 
> They only act responsibly if forced to by authorities.
> 
> So your sentence can be rewritten as: "it will quickly become painful if the authorities does not implement unpopular measures soon."



Not necessarily. Fear is a good motivator. Over the last couple of years, we typically had a spontaneous increase in mask use, distancing, remote working, etc. when the case/death numbers had a quick upturn. The issue had always been keeping up with smart behavior when the situation stabilizes and numbers start to go down. That is when you really need authority mandates to keep things improving.


----------



## Hussar

CapnZapp said:


> People don't just start taking responsibility.
> 
> They only act responsibly if forced to by authorities.
> 
> So your sentence can be rewritten as: "it will quickly become painful if the authorities does not implement unpopular measures soon."




You might want to rephrase that as “people where I live” because it’s certainly not true everywhere.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mask use just kinda automatic now. I suppose it's like training "who's a good boy" have a treatie. 

 My treatie usually meal or coffee. Woof.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> You might want to rephrase that as “people where I live” because it’s certainly not true everywhere.




I think it gets complicated.

In Japan, there's already a culture around wearing masks.  So, if the responsible thing is to wear masks, then you can expect that to happen.  

That does not mean that, whatever constitutes the "responsible thing", folks in Japan will spontaneously do that.


----------



## Cadence

Just out of curiosity, here is some on 2020 mask usage for a variety of countries from Global trends and predictors of face mask usage during the COVID-19 pandemic - BMC Public Health

Click on attachment for big graph:
View attachment 12889_2021_12175_Fig1_HTML.webp


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> I think it gets complicated.
> 
> In Japan, there's already a culture around wearing masks. So, if the responsible thing is to wear masks, then you can expect that to happen.
> 
> That does not mean that, whatever constitutes the "responsible thing", folks in Japan will spontaneously do that.




Well there is more than that. 

They asked us to stay home and we did. They asked us to not have big get togethers and we did that. 

No mandates. No laws. Just the government making reasonable requests and people being reasonable. 

Helps when you have a population that isn’t quite so self absorbed and is actually willing to help neighbours.


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> Well there is more than that.
> 
> They asked us to stay home and we did. They asked us to not have big get togethers and we did that.
> 
> No mandates. No laws. Just the government making reasonable requests and people being reasonable.
> 
> Helps when you have a population that isn’t quite so self absorbed and is actually willing to help neighbours.



On the other hand here, we had mandates. People had warehouse parties with a couple of thousand people and some businesses publicly flouted the law.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Ryujin said:


> On the other hand here, we had mandates. People had warehouse parties with a couple of thousand people and some businesses publicly flouted the law.


----------



## Mannahnin

Italy may also see unenforced good behavior out of fear as Briggart says,  Perhaps in part due to the horrors they experienced early in the pandemic, which have no doubt had cultural impact.


----------



## Mirtek

Well, for all it was made up to be the expert's report paper was surprisingly disappointing and every faction now feels supported in their former view on the matter as the expert assessment "clearly agrees with them". There are also reports of quarrel in the 18-people committee that was tasked with creating this assessment, with some members allegedly wanting to come to a much more critical assessment on some of the measures.

Some conclusions are:

Lockdowns work during early stages but lose effect as they drag on.

Masks work too, but not if people wear them wrong (who would have thought that?). Interestingly they do point out that out in real life there's apparently no noticeable difference between medical masks (enough in most states) and FFP2 masks (mandated in only a couple of states). FFP2 should be better (and performs better in controlled test environments) but apparently that advantage doesn't carry over once "real people" become supposed to wear them (correctly). Mask should remain an effective measure indoors, but are not deemed necessary outdoors.

Positive impact of closing schools could not be evaluated due to overlapping with too many other measures, however the negative impacts on children development could clearly be measured and are undeniable.

Restricting events only to people who are vaccinated or recently recovered only has an effect early after a fresh vaccination wave but becomes less effective as effectiveness  of vaccinations wears off. At this point just admitting tested unvaccinated people becomes just as well

Also the „Feststellung der epidemischen Lage von nationaler Tragweite“ (declaration of an epidemic situation on a national scope) that was used as foundation for the covid laws is of questionable juridical validity (aka probably outright unconstitutional) and needs to be replaced ASAP (should definately not be used to justify any rules in fall/winter).

As of June 2022 Germany is officially in the 5th wave. The German waves are defined as:

Wave 1: March 2020 - spring 2020
Wave 2: October 2020 - December 2020
Wave 3: March 2021 - May 2021
Wave 4: October 2021 - December 2021
Wave 5: January 2022 - today

So just when it seems as if the waves become predicable Omikron appears and suddenly the 5th wave just immediately follows the 4th wave (instead of having the good manners to wait until _March_ as it was clearly supposed to ).

We may actually already be in the 6th wave, as the 5th waves was in a clear downward spiral for quite some time until BA.5 appeared.

Measures for fall and winter are yet to be decided, however both the cancelor and the attorney general already ruled out lockdowns, curfews or closing of schools.

Only for the health secretary to publicly disagree and state that he want to at least keep the possibility for closing down schools on the table. Even though that's one of the measures that got the worst grade from the expert committee.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mom finally went to a restaurant for the first time since March 2020!


----------



## Cadence

We're back down to  yellow here from orange (but eep, the yellow and orange have spread).  
So, still masking  and weighing risks, but not avoiding quite as many places.


----------



## Baron Opal II

"Orange to the North of us, green to the South. Here I am stuck in the yellow with you..."

Not sure why that jumped into my head looking at the map, but there it is.


----------



## Zardnaar

Omicron NZ: Why the government is doing (almost) nothing about Covid
					

There are more than 500 New Zealanders in hospital with Covid this morning. Last time we moved to the red traffic light setting there were eight. What's changed?




					i.stuff.co.nz
				




 Not sure what people expect. 

 Jacinda burned all her political capital on  vaccines. 

 No point using restrictions that people stopped following you'll just look like an idiot.

 Changing the rules all the time and not being consistent along with lockdown fatigue.


----------



## Hussar

Yeah, Japan's on the upswing again too after quite a long downward trend.  Grrr.  Canada, OTOH, seems to be doing really well.  Which does make me happy.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Yeah, Japan's on the upswing again too after quite a long downward trend.  Grrr.  Canada, OTOH, seems to be doing really well.  Which does make me happy.




NZers forget we've come through reasonably well death toll about 1/10th of USA. 

 Per Capita last I looked it's similar to Japan. 

 Can't really blame the government when people stopped following the rules. 

 Not that everyone could follow the rules even if they wanted to.


----------



## MoonSong

Zardnaar said:


> Can't really blame the government when people stopped following the rules.



In my cas I can. The gov officially decreed the end of the emergency... right before cases exploded. Seriously, 32k cases in a single day...


----------



## CleverNickName

I get that people are tired of this pandemic, but the virus doesn't care.  Without deliberate actions to keep it in check, more people will get sick and more will die.  That's just as true now as it was in March of 2020.


----------



## Zardnaar

MoonSong said:


> In my cas I can. The gov officially decreed the end of the emergency... right before cases exploded. Seriously, 32k cases in a single day...




 We came close to 30k with vastly smaller population than Mexico.

 They don't really care about case numbers now they do care about deathscand state of the hospitals. 

 Flu season has been rough this year becausevthe country mostly dodged that 2020/21. 

 Hasn't helped health sector has been run down last 20 odd years.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Yeah, in the end, its reached the point where completely avoiding sizable infection numbers if probably impossible short of eternal lockdown.  So the target has been to manage hospitalizations and deaths (and worry like heck about Long COVID).


----------



## Zardnaar

Nephews school. Fail at social distancing aka no one cares. 



  Wasn't there I wouldn't go to that event.


----------



## niklinna

And as BA-4/5 continue rising worldwide, we've got another new variant coming up in India.









						COVID State of Affairs: July 7
					

Driven by Omicron sub-variants, country-level hotspots are now peppered across the globe. Yesterday, the WHO reported cases are on the rise in 110 countries, causing overall global cases to increase by 30% over the past two weeks. Of course, these numbers and country-level comparisons are only...




					yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> They don't really care about case numbers now they do care about deathscand state of the hospitals.




In the US, with the rise of at-home testing, official case numbers have ceased to be a useful metric - we don't have a handle on how many cases test positive at home, but never find their way to a doctor.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> In the US, with the rise of at-home testing, official case numbers have ceased to be a useful metric - we don't have a handle on how many cases test positive at home, but never find their way to a doctor.




Here you report your own using the app and it counts as official. 

 They gave up contact tracing in March iirc.


----------



## Mirtek

Zardnaar said:


> Here you report your own using the app and it counts as official.
> 
> They gave up contact tracing in March iirc.



In Germany you're supposed to get a official PCR test done for free after you got a positive self-test at home and then the result of the PCR would be uploaded into the app.

Although no one knows how many people just never tell anyone of a positive self test and just stay at home for a couple of days and then go out again.

One reason for the relaxation of the quarantine rules was certainly to encourage people to not keep quiet about positive self tests


----------



## Ryujin

Finally took my mother to hospice last Wednesday and she passed yesterday afternoon. Of course the hospice very reasonably had strict Covid protocols, given the way that the disease burned through elder care facilities in this Province (Ontario, Canada). When I was leaving the hospice on Thursday afternoon, a family was dealing with the intake of their mother/grandmother. Only four family members are permitted as inside visitors (others can visit through the large windows on the outside of the rooms). One of the four was screaming about how Covid is fake and why are they wasting their time with testing, when they could just walk straight in. It took everything that I had not to tear this woman apart, verbally.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> In the US, with the rise of at-home testing, official case numbers have ceased to be a useful metric - we don't have a handle on how many cases test positive at home, but never find their way to a doctor.




In a way, honestly, we didn't before; in a lot of places getting tested was difficult enough that people who had reason to think they had it simply never knew for sure at all.   My wife tried to get tested several months ago at one point, and things were so backed up that if she'd had it it'd likely have been long gone by the time she could find out.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> It took everything that I had not to tear this woman apart, verbally.




I've been waiting for someone to be seriously contrarian about this within my earshot for two years.  I'm sufficiently old and curmudgeony I can pretty much be certain they'd get an earful back (and given some of the people like that, it might have turned into a real problem.)  Fortunately, I go into public rarely enough its not come up.


----------



## Ryujin

Thomas Shey said:


> I've been waiting for someone to be seriously contrarian about this within my earshot for two years.  I'm sufficiently old and curmudgeony I can pretty much be certain they'd get an earful back (and given some of the people like that, it might have turned into a real problem.)  Fortunately, I go into public rarely enough its not come up.



It was neither the time, nor the place for the confrontation, and the rest of the family were essentially telling her to shut up. The lack of respect for the place and other patients was what almost set me off. The level of selfishness was off the charts.

By way of comparison my family was so respectful of the place and deferential to the staff that while the official limit for in-room visitors was 4 they unlocked the door to the patio, said, "What happens in the room stays in the room", and allowed two additional visitors. By the end the rules were thrown out the window and 6 people had officially been permitted in the room. We were all double or triple vaxxed, and diligently took the quick tests before entry with no fuss. To limit exposure of the other patients some of us would check in at the front desk, take the test, and then enter the room directly via the patio entrance.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> It was neither the time, nor the place for the confrontation, and the rest of the family were essentially telling her to shut up. The lack of respect for the place and other patients was what almost set me off. The level of selfishness was off the charts.




Yeah, I can see that.  I've been waiting for someone maskless to make a smart crack about people wearing masks, and I suspect what would come out of my mouth would be something on the order of "At least some of us give a damn about other people you selfish git."

(Like I said, its just as well its not happened.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> In Germany you're supposed to get a official PCR test done for free after you got a positive self-test at home and then the result of the PCR would be uploaded into the app.
> 
> Although no one knows how many people just never tell anyone of a positive self test and just stay at home for a couple of days and then go out again.
> 
> One reason for the relaxation of the quarantine rules was certainly to encourage people to not keep quiet about positive self tests




 Wife failed a RAT test about 15 minutes ago. She's coughing and spluttering. She passed one yesterday to visit her parents. Symptoms started last night.

 Week off work where she probably caught it as we haven't been anywhere for 11 days except one supermarket trip.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> In a way, honestly, we didn't before;




We did well enough for at least statistical relevance, which is the issue at hand.



Thomas Shey said:


> My wife tried to get tested several months ago at one point




So, just to be clear about timelines - the US government started sending folks free at-home tests in January.  Several months ago.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> We did well enough for at least statistical relevance, which is the issue at hand.




I'm not sold on same.



Umbran said:


> So, just to be clear about timelines - the US government started sending folks free at-home tests in January.  Several months ago.




The key word is "started"; we were still waiting on ours to arrive at that point, and from anecdotal evidence, that wasn't uncommon.


----------



## Zardnaar

Passed a rats test this morning dry throat. 

 Sore throat now and headache. Got something apparently not Covid atm. Supposed to retest in 4 days but showing symptoms now. 

  Only got two RATs test left.

  3 years of no colds or anything. Wife throat got very sore today slept in very late.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

I passed my first test as well when I got sick, but a few days later of persisting symptoms re-tested and it came back very positive.



Zardnaar said:


> Passed a rats test this morning dry throat.
> 
> Sore throat now and headache. Got something apparently not Covid atm. Supposed to retest in 4 days but showing symptoms now.
> 
> Only got two RATs test left.
> 
> 3 years of no colds or anything. Wife throat got very sore today slept in very late.


----------



## JEB

Zardnaar said:


> Passed a rats test this morning dry throat.
> 
> Sore throat now and headache. Got something apparently not Covid atm. Supposed to retest in 4 days but showing symptoms now.
> 
> Only got two RATs test left.
> 
> 3 years of no colds or anything. Wife throat got very sore today slept in very late.



Rapid tests have a high rate of false negatives; you'd need to get a PCR test to really be sure.


----------



## Zardnaar

JEB said:


> Rapid tests have a high rate of false negatives; you'd need to get a PCR test to really be sure.




 Covid confirmed now. Had a nice 15 hour sleep.


----------



## Zardnaar

Fell asleep again. 5pm now slept most of the day.


----------



## South by Southwest

COVID's the only illness I've seen where sitting in a chair can make you tired. But it totally does.


----------



## Thomas Shey

South by Southwest said:


> COVID's the only illness I've seen where sitting in a chair can make you tired. But it totally does.




Strep.


----------



## South by Southwest

Thomas Shey said:


> Strep.



Really? It never did that to me.


----------



## Thomas Shey

South by Southwest said:


> Really? It never did that to me.



I was exhausted all the time; I fell asleep it seemed like every 2-3 hours.

Its one reason I've looked with grave suspicion at some "flu" my wife and I had very early in 2020 (officially before it had spread in the U.S.); I was fatigued constantly but the only thing ever like it at all was Strep.

(The last time my wife saw our doctor, after her description, his opinion was it was probably COVID).


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> Nephews school. Fail at social distancing aka no one cares.
> View attachment 253040
> 
> Wasn't there I wouldn't go to that event.



KISS concert in Zagreb;




no one gives a damn...


----------



## Thomas Shey

Oye.  They might as well have a sign saying "Superspreader event here."


----------



## BookTenTiger

Horwath said:


> KISS concert in Zagreb;
> View attachment 253668
> no one gives a damn...



Keep
It
Super
Spreading


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Horwath said:


> KISS concert in Zagreb;
> View attachment 253668
> no one gives a damn...



Singing their hits like:

Creatures of Denial
God gave Omicron to you
I wanna cough and moan all night

(And clearly, most of that crowd seems to favor KISS’ “unmasked” era…)


----------



## South by Southwest

And don't forget _"Back in the COVID Groove."_


----------



## Horwath

Thomas Shey said:


> Oye.  They might as well have a sign saying "Superspreader event here."



the KISS concert was small family gathering of 5000 people,

I will raise you now:

Ultra Europe 2022 Music festival in Split:

140-150k people in 4 day party.

It will be interesting to watch Covid stats in next two weeks :/


We might be subject in global shadow government experiment... _"Puts tin foil hat on"_


----------



## Mirtek

Well, it's happening everywhere anyway


Non-representative Facebook poll gave 300/1,300 RaR participants that responded with having caught COVID there. Fortunately none had any symptoms worth mentioning (maybe because everybody getting seriously sick not being on Facebook to respond to some ad hoc survey)

Personally I am leaving for a cruise next Sunday, my biggest worry is whether or not the flight will actually happen. Chaos and cancellations at European airports are unbelievable currently and are expected to continue until the 2023 summer season. Seems like 90% of Europe is dead set on going to summer holiday. And since I am about to join the bustle it's not as if I am in a place to blame them for it.


----------



## niklinna

The BA.5 Wave Is What COVID Normal Looks Like
					

The endless churn of variants may not stop anytime soon, unless we do something about it.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Think we both passed the peak. Wife lost sense of taste for a few hours (one meal). 

 Haven't eaten much mostly yoghurt and ice cream. Managed a couple of small savory things last 24 hours. 

 Haven't eaten a proper breakfast in 3 or 4 days usually just yoghurt.

  Managed to eat some toast a peppered steak and cheese pie tonight's dinner was chicken Kyiv, bread and small amount of pasta. 

 For the most part mirrored wife's progress -2 days. Looked after her earlier in week ony worst day she looked after me. Well day after my worst day. Slept most of Wednesday off and on. 

 Apart from that I've had worse colds but the fatigue is new for me. Getting a craving for a 1/4 pounder as it's a reasonably bland burger. Barely eat McDonald's don't care about fries or anything.

 Headaches and coughing weren't to bad in the grand scheme of things. Dull ache behind the eyes and feeling a bit meh. 

 House is a bit of a bombsite think I'll tidy tomorrow. Day 6 of isolation.

  On the family group chat inlaws teasing me with pictures of food from Queenstown. We're cooped up they're lapping it up here. 


 Bastards.

 Rained for most of the week as well so nice soggy winter. Glad I got vaxxed anyway although the booster was late January.

 Central Otago booze cruise I mean winery tour is tempting.


----------



## South by Southwest

Zardnaar said:


> On the family group chat inlaws teasing me with pictures of food from Queenstown. We're cooped up they're lapping it up here.



Sorry to put salt on the wounds, but... !


----------



## J.Quondam

Sounds like there's some headway toward understanding long covid:








						Researchers at Boston hospitals may have found a biomarker for long COVID
					

Researchers in Massachusetts have discovered a potential marker that could help inform the diagnosis and treatment of long COVID.



					www.boston.com
				



Potential good news for those still struggling even after getting "better."


----------



## Zardnaar

South by Southwest said:


> Sorry to put salt on the wounds, but... !




 Yeah it's pretty. In my province about an hour from where I was born. Been around the country but I like it here. 

 Got a phone call from health ministry as I reported positive case. It was within 34 hours. Basically they go through the symptoms and check if you're alright. They also go through the isolation expectations and support available.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

An article talking about the importance of T-Cells as COVID continues to mutate:









						COVID reinfection has a silver lining—one that may help tame the pandemic
					

When we talk about immune-evading variants, we’re really only talking about antibody immunity—and that’s only half of the story.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> An article talking about the importance of T-Cells as COVID continues to mutate:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID reinfection has a silver lining—one that may help tame the pandemic
> 
> 
> When we talk about immune-evading variants, we’re really only talking about antibody immunity—and that’s only half of the story.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com




That article raises a good point - the lessened severity we see isn't unambiguously "mutating to a less deadly form".  The increased T-cell response can also explain lessened severity.


----------



## Zardnaar

Seems legit ke the after effects are worse for me than the actual Covid. 

 Think I've got a chest infection or something. Rung doctor and he is putting me on a steroid and anti biotics. He was a bit insistent on ASAP won't wait to Monday so have to go to a pharmacy that's open late. 

 Just keep coughing and feel weak all the time. Apart from the cough all if the other symptoms faded after 3-4 days got clearance from isolation on Tuesday.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Long COVID can be absolutely no joke, and "long" varies considerably in what it means.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> Long COVID can be absolutely no joke, and "long" varies considerably in what it means.




 I think it's just a chest infection doctor did a phone consultation. Post civid cough is very common and there's stuff they can give you so why not?

 Coughing to 2am was lots of fun so rung doctor as symptoms were consistent with chest infection. 

Apparently the steroids have some nice side effects.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> I think it's just a chest infection doctor did a phone consultation. Post civid cough is very common and there's stuff they can give you so why not?
> 
> Coughing to 2am was lots of fun so rung doctor as symptoms were consistent with chest infection.
> 
> Apparently the steroids have some nice side effects.



Did they set it up so you're on a decreasing dose of the steroids, to wean you off, rather than a hard stop?


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> Did they set it up so you're on a decreasing dose of the steroids, to wean you off, rather than a hard stop?




 Just got ten days supply of whatever.

 On the plus side everything was free vs $30 or so.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Just got ten days supply of whatever.
> 
> On the plus side everything was free vs $30 or so.



I was asking because whenever someone in my family has been prescribed steroids, it has always been on a declining dosage towards the end.


----------



## J.Quondam

Yeah, that post-covid stuff is no joke.


----------



## Ryujin

J.Quondam said:


> Yeah, that post-covid stuff is no joke. Update on my mother, who had a cough back in January but refused to go to the doctor:
> Of course it was covid, despite what her home tests said. She ended up in ER, spent 10 days in hospital with covid pneumonia in one lung. She got off the supplemental oxygen a few weeks ago. All told, it was around four months or so of dragging a little breathing machine around the house, or pulling a tank on those rare occasions she needed to go out.
> She's doing fine now.
> But despite all that pain, worry, and hassle, both my parents _still_ won't get vaxxed.



Given that much of my lungs are scar tissue, due to having pneumonia 5 times as a kid (I thought it was only twice, until recently corrected), I'm terrified of possibly having to deal with that sort of thing. As a result I'm triple vaxxed (two different vaccines) and still wear a mask everywhere that I go. Doesn't help that I'm type 2 diabetic, I suppose, either.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> I was asking because whenever someone in my family has been prescribed steroids, it has always been on a declining dosage towards the end.




There's a standardized pack for one variety of that that's very recognizable I've seen several times in the U.S. (had it once myself, though I don't remember what for).


----------



## BookTenTiger

Well it finally caught up to me.

We started moving into our new house today. I woke up feeling as if I had a mild cold, but thought I'd just caught a cold from my baby son (who's has the sniffles but negative Covid tests for the last week).

I finally took a rapid test after feeling tired in the afternoon and it's a very strong positive. Both my wife and baby got negative tests. They're going in for PCR tests tomorrow.

Luckily, we have been staying in an Airbnb while the house got ready, and we have it until the 14th of August. So I'm isolating at the Airbnb and my wife and baby are in the new house.

We just moved from San Francisco to Atlanta, and though we still wear masks at indoor venues or crowds, most people out here don't. My school year starts on August 1st, hopefully I will be ready to teach by then!!!


----------



## Zardnaar

Started with sore throat for me skipped most of the cold symptoms.

 Had a decent go at depleting the reservoir still doing that.


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> Started with sore throat for me skipped most of the cold symptoms.
> 
> Had a decent go at depleting the reservoir still doing that.



My go-round in Jan was COVID plus strep throat plus some other stuff that I was in no condition to remember.

Doctor put me on antibiotics which helped me perk up but the nasty strep taste did not break until I gargled with Listerine.  (Not the Original Flavor - I was improving enough to recognize choking would be a bad thing !)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Eltab said:


> Doctor put me on antibiotics which helped me perk up but the nasty strep taste did not break until I gargled with Listerine.  (Not the Original Flavor - I was improving enough to recognize choking would be a bad thing !)



I’ve been a fan of “Cool Mint” since it came out.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Eltab said:


> My go-round in Jan was COVID plus strep throat plus some other stuff that I was in no condition to remember.




Having that combination must have meant any energy for anything but sleep must have been in short supply.


----------



## billd91

Thomas Shey said:


> Long COVID can be absolutely no joke, and "long" varies considerably in what it means.



Too right. My wife has been disabled with long COVID for 18 months now. She wasn‘t even hospitalized when she had COVID back in 2021.


----------



## Thomas Shey

billd91 said:


> Too right. My wife has been disabled with long COVID for 18 months now. She wasn‘t even hospitalized when she had COVID back in 2021.




Yeah, I've heard of cases like that where relatively moderate cases get somewhat better--and then stop.  So effectively, they just never go away.


----------



## GreyLord

Well, not Covid, but somehow I caught a Norovirus.  

It was BAD.  Got dehydrated.  Was throwing up ever other hour.  Couldn't even keep water down.  It's been a few days but now finally doing better.  Could not stay hydrated for 2-3 days overall.  Today, I finally have signs that I'm actually hydrated like normal.  

It was very nasty.  No idea where I picked it up.  Could swear I was washing my hands regularly.  Maybe didn't wash the fruit well enough?  I thought I did, but it is possible i didn't wash some strawberries well enough, as it was more a rinse over them in the container.  No idea where I really got it though.  It was terrible.


----------



## Mannahnin

BookTenTiger said:


> We just moved from San Francisco to Atlanta, and though we still wear masks at indoor venues or crowds, most people out here don't. My school year starts on August 1st, hopefully I will be ready to teach by then!!!



Yes, this part sucks.  Since masks (anything short of a properly fit-tested N95, anyway) primarily protect others, rather than the wearer, they're highly reliant on the majority of people in a given community or setting doing the responsible thing and wearing them.  If the majority are burned out and/or dumbasses, being responsible and continuing to wear a mask oneself becomes less and less effective.  

I hope you get well soon, and your family stays healthy.


----------



## Zardnaar

Coughed all night Saturday 0 sleep. Then slept 17 hours. 

  Improvement now vs Friday/Sat I think less coughing. 

 Cold, wet and damp we've had 4 months of rain this July. 



 2:33 my cities university. 

  Think the cats are evolving into fish.


----------



## South by Southwest

Zardnaar said:


> 2:33 my cities university.
> 
> Think the cats are evolving into fish.



That is absolutely wild; the campus became a weird, massively destructive natural waterpark or something.

Glad to read you're able to sleep again and on the mend!


----------



## Zardnaar

South by Southwest said:


> That is absolutely wild; the campus became a weird, massively destructive natural waterpark or something.
> 
> Glad to read you're able to sleep again and on the mend!




 Students often decide to go kayaking in it when it's like that. 

 Happens every time.

 Offered to send my friend in Texas some water.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> Offered to send my friend in Texas some water.




If you've got some extra when you're done, send it to California.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thomas Shey said:


> If you've got some extra when you're done, send it to California.




 It's free just come pick it up.


 3rd big dump in as many weeks 4 months rain in 3 weeks.

 Maybe Canterbury first. 









						Canterbury deluge makes July wettest ever for region
					

A band of rain between Monday night and Tuesday night plunged Canterbury into the wettest July on record, with a third of the annual rain falling in a month.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Take all you want


----------



## Ryujin

I've got a friend in Christchurch, who I'm not hearing back from. Hope he's OK.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Zardnaar said:


> It's free just come pick it up.



That is always the tricky part, isn't it?


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> I've got a friend in Christchurch, who I'm not hearing back from. Hope he's OK.




 It's bad up there. Might be damaged cables or evacuated. They haven't dried out from two weeks ago.


----------



## Zardnaar

And students confirmed surfing in the river.


----------



## GreyLord

We've had rain where I'm at.  At one point the creek was only about one inch lower then the bridge this spring!  

I hear it is bad in the Southwest US though.  All sorts of stories, like Arizona won't have any water at all in a few years, and other states are fighting hard over the river water.  California also has a severe water problem but no one wants to face up to it and take steps to slow down consumption which could possibly put them in the same scenario as Arizona soon also.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> We've had rain where I'm at.  At one point the creek was only about one inch lower then the bridge this spring!
> 
> I hear it is bad in the Southwest US though.  All sorts of stories, like Arizona won't have any water at all in a few years, and other states are fighting hard over the river water.  California also has a severe water problem but no one wants to face up to it and take steps to slow down consumption which could possibly put them in the same scenario as Arizona soon also.




Have been watching Lake Meade videos. Watch one and YouTube spits out more.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

There’s a half-baked idea about divert water from the Mississippi River to help alleviate the droughts out west.  Today, I was reading an article by a civil engineer who worked on “mega projects” discussing the plan.

His take?  Too much money and energy for too little benefit.  The numbers just don’t add up.

And that’s before he started noting the problems it would cause where the Mississippi actually runs…


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> There’s a half-baked idea about divert water from the Mississippi River to help alleviate the droughts out west.  Today, I was reading an article by a civil engineer who worked on “mega projects” discussing the plan.
> 
> His take?  Too much money and energy for too little benefit.  The numbers just don’t add up.
> 
> And that’s before he started noting the problems it would cause where the Mississippi actually runs…




 Yeah it's a stupid idea. 

 Use less water and stop growing water intensive crops. Failing that move.


----------



## Thomas Shey

I suspect, political heft or no, that the people growing rice and alfalfa in California are going to soon come for a long awaited reckoning.


----------



## Ryujin

Thomas Shey said:


> I suspect, political heft or no, that the people growing rice and alfalfa in California are going to soon come for a long awaited reckoning.



Lots of crops in California only exist because of bringing water into what would otherwise be desert.


----------



## Rabulias

Dannyalcatraz said:


> His take?  Too much money and energy for too little benefit.  The numbers just don’t add up.



Until they do. As time goes on, the cost of such a project will shrink relative to the economic impact the loss of water will have on the southwest states.


Dannyalcatraz said:


> And that’s before he started noting the problems it would cause where the Mississippi actually runs…



This is another matter entirely, and more valid reasons to strongly dismiss this idea. There are _always _unintended consequences with such massive projects. Even assuming a cross-country pipeline solves the problems in the southwest, we may well have a bunch of new problems down the Mississippi.

I don't want to stifle out of the box thinking, but this idea has too many unknown factors. China has been working on a massive water redistribution project since the early 2000s and it has cost them over $70 billion so far. It's not complete and they are already running into water pollution issues last I heard.


----------



## Ryujin

Rabulias said:


> Until they do. As time goes on, the cost of such a project will shrink relative to the economic impact the loss of water will have on the southwest states.
> 
> This is another matter entirely, and more valid reasons to strongly dismiss this idea. There are _always _unintended consequences with such massive projects. Even assuming a cross-country pipeline solves the problems in the southwest, we may well have a bunch of new problems down the Mississippi.
> 
> I don't want to stifle out of the box thinking, but this idea has too many unknown factors. China has been working on a massive water redistribution project since the early 2000s and it has cost them over $70 billion so far. It's not complete and they are already running into water pollution issues last I heard.



More than once the idea has been floated to create water pipelines from northern Washington State, to funnel water to California, thereby robbing Canada of fresh water.

In the Niven/Pournelle novel "Oath of Fealty" the company that built the arcology of Todos Santos convinced local officials to permit the construction, in part, by towing icebergs to the Port of Los Angeles for fresh water and it became a bargaining chip when they were threatened with closure.


----------



## Umbran

Rabulias said:


> Until they do. As time goes on, the cost of such a project will shrink relative to the economic impact the loss of water will have on the southwest states.




So, let us be clear - the issue isn't just the southwest - it is the West, Southwest, and High Plains.  Indeed, much of the lower half of the Mississippi is also under drought conditions!  We are talking about nearly half the area of the country being in drought.



Spoiler: Here's a map...









The phrase "robbing Peter to pay Paul" comes to mind for such projects.

Also, the time for such a project was a decade ago.  Now, no such project will complete in time to save the area from its behavior.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> Lots of crops in California only exist because of bringing water into what would otherwise be desert.




Yeah, but there's some important issues of degree here; the two crops I mentioned require literal flooding of the growing area to work.  That's on a whole different level; you should be growing those in places that get an _excess_ of water.


----------



## Rabulias

Umbran said:


> So, let us be clear - the issue isn't just the southwest - it is the West, Southwest, and High Plains.  Indeed, much of the lower half of the Mississippi is also under drought conditions!  We are talking about nearly half the area of the country being in drought.



True, but the areas where agriculture and/or population is growing are more limited. Some of the locations on that map have historically been desert.


Umbran said:


> Also, the time for such a project was a decade ago.  Now, no such project will complete in time to save the area from its behavior.



Probably 20 years ago, to allow for project overruns, and working on any unforeseen problems.


----------



## Rabulias

Thomas Shey said:


> Yeah, but there's some important issues of degree here; the two crops I mentioned require literal flooding of the growing area to work.  That's on a whole different level; you should be growing those in places that get an _excess_ of water.



Yeah, California's wine industry may suffer some as well. It does not use as much as almonds, grazeland, or alfalfa, but it is in the top 10 agricultural uses of water in California, IIRC. And as the water supply dries up...


----------



## Thomas Shey

Rabulias said:


> Yeah, California's wine industry may suffer some as well. It does not use as much as almonds, grazeland, or alfalfa, but it is in the top 10 agricultural uses of water in California, IIRC. And as the water supply dries up...




Yeah, that's a little more unfortunate, because there are actually _good_ reasons to grow grapes in California other than "we have cheap water" (which is pretty much the only reason rice is grown here) given certain soil and other conditions, but it just may become impractical.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

This is one of the articles regarding some of the costs and engineering issues involved in diverting water from the Mississippi.  The numbers cited, if accurate, would indicate to me (a non-engineer) that it would be prohibitively expensive for a long time.









						As an engineer, here's how I look at the idea of pumping water from Mississippi to the West
					

As a nation, do we have the same appetite for large projects as we used to?



					www.desertsun.com


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Re: California agriculture 

There was an article in Bon Appetit a couple years ago that discussed the many issues- water/drought, labor, housing, etc.- involved in their (and thus, the USA in general) agribusinesses.  Several farmers went on record as saying the USA was on the verge of having to either import its farm workforce or scale back farming in favor of relying more on imports if things keep going in the directions they are.

And there’s LOTS of reasons increasing food imports is untenable in the long term.


----------



## Umbran

Rabulias said:


> True, but the areas where agriculture and/or population is growing are more limited.




At this point, even if there's no growth at all, there's going to be a water management catastrophe if behavior and use do not change.  The areas feeding Lake Mead and Lake Powell have been in drought for _twenty years_ - which starts seeming less like drought, and more like climatic shift (go figure).  The issue is less about supporting growth now, and more about avoiding collapse.



Rabulias said:


> Some of the locations on that map have historically been desert.




Yes, they are.  Fancy that.  Folks have set up large population centers with water needs for industry and agriculture and entertainment _in the middle of a desert_!  Genius!

I don't now who here is old enough to remember, but back in the 80s, there was drought and famine in Africa - leading up to this famous bit of music history:


What we forget are the comedians and politicos who were railing about the efforts, with notes that "Well, they live in a freakin' desert!  Move already!"  

Shoe's on the other foot now, hey what?


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Re: California agriculture
> 
> There was an article in Bon Appetit a couple years ago that discussed the many issues- water/drought, labor, housing, etc.- involved in their (and thus, the USA in general) agribusinesses.  Several farmers went on record as saying the USA was on the verge of having to either import its farm workforce or scale back farming in favor of relying more on imports if things keep going in the directions they are.
> 
> And there’s LOTS of reasons increasing food imports is untenable in the long term.



In a sense, we already import much of our farm labor via undocumented immigrants. They're widely used in the dairy industry throughout the midwest because, among other things, they are in too precarious a position to complain about the hours or the pay.

And then there are other issues about the non-monetary expense of agribusiness - including the population health of pollinators like bees. They're shipped from all over the US in huge numbers to pollinate the almond orchards in Southern California where they are inundated with pesticides. No wonder our pollinator populations are flagging.


----------



## Rabulias

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This is one of the articles regarding some of the costs and engineering issues involved in diverting water from the Mississippi.  The numbers cited, if accurate, would indicate to me (a non-engineer) that it would be prohibitively expensive for a long time.



While I agree the project is inadvisable for many reasons, I don't know if waiting until the water is at or almost at sea level before pumping it westward is the best choice, even as a hypothetical engineering project.


----------



## Umbran

By the way, we all know that the agricultural and water-crisis discussions are a bit of a sideline from the nominal thread topic, right?  So, if something real about the pandemic comes up, we should focus back in on that, okay, everyone?  

Thanks much for your attention.


----------



## Umbran

Rabulias said:


> While I agree the project is inadvisable for many reasons, I don't know if waiting until the water is at or almost at sea level before pumping it westward is the best choice, even as a hypothetical engineering project.




I mean, there isn't much choice.  It isn't like there's a high-altitude large water source to work with, because _water flows downhill!_  The Great Lakes are much farther away, and only at an altitude of 600' or so.  Meanwhile, Lake Mead stops flowing through the dam at around 875'.


----------



## Rabulias

Umbran said:


> Yes, they are.  Fancy that.  Folks have set up large population centers with water needs for industry and agriculture and entertainment _in the middle of a desert_!  Genius!



I guess I was not clear: What I meant with that was there are significant portions of the land marked under drought, that are now and have always been desert (since the 1800s at least). No one lived there or lives there. No one is trying to build a new Las Vegas all over (though granted, developments are expanding existing cities into desert areas).

I am just saying that even in the 1800s, a goodly portion of the west/southwest was desert and under drought conditions, which limits the region's baseline ability to support population and agriculture. It also makes the region less resilient with respect to water in times of climate change and wider drought.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

billd91 said:


> In a sense, we already import much of our farm labor via undocumented immigrants. They're widely used in the dairy industry throughout the midwest because, among other things, they are in too precarious a position to complain about the hours or the pay.



They were already taking that into account.  

The farmers were pointing out that the costs of living even in California’s farmland are so high, there are sometimes as many as 5 families of workers living in “single family” dwellings.  And they’re still having problems finding workers, in part because some of those families who routinely came to America to work can’t afford to do so anymore.

The reasons for all of this are manifold, some economic, some social, some political, some environmental.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Yes, they are.  Fancy that.  Folks have set up large population centers with water needs for industry and agriculture and entertainment _in the middle of a desert_!  Genius!




Even parts of California (particularly the middle to southern end) that weren't desert as such, were at least arid, and any farming in that, no matter the virtues of soil, need to recognize that.
Of course than you have things like farming in Arizona, which I don't even know what to say about.  Outside the Rim area, its pretty much arid to desert the whole way, including plenty of places now cultivated.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> I don't now who here is old enough to remember, but back in the 80s, there was drought and famine in Africa - leading up to this famous bit of music history:



I am old enough to remember that in real time.
The drought was natural.  The famine was man-made.


----------



## Ryujin

Eltab said:


> I am old enough to remember that in real time.
> The drought was natural.  The famine was man-made.



As was the deforestation.


----------



## JEB

Reformulated COVID vaccine boosters may be available earlier than expected
					

The Biden administration may scrap plans to expand eligibility for second boosters to younger adults. Instead, it's trying to speed up the next generation of boosters targeting the omicron variant.




					www.npr.org
				




It would certainly be nice to see the upgraded boosters in circulation sooner.


----------



## Zardnaar

Finished my steroids few days of antibiotics to go. 

  Think I'm feeling better coughing less managed to go shopping with to much coughing or exhaustion. 

 Wife's still coughing she wasn't as bad as me I might be better than her now. Keep saying ring the doctor it's free but she won't do it. Rang them a week ago just because the post Covid cough was kinda worse than Covid.


----------



## Mirtek

I am currently stuck at home with COVID as well. First symptoms started on the 23rd and then I got a positive test on the 26th. One week before first symptoms I know I was negative because I had to do a PCR test on the 16th to be allowed to board the ship.

So with the incubation period being app. 3 days on average I must have catched it Wednesday or Thursday. Giving my activities during those two days I am pretty sure it was on Wednesday.

I had my bag packed to go the gym to start working on the pounds I got over the holiday and was just going through the drive-in test center to be extra sure. I hoped I just catched a cold due to frequent switches from 36-40 degrees outside and 21 degrees air-conditioned inside. We Germans hardly have AC anywhere and are just not used to that. Wanted to do the quick test, wait on the parking lot for the result and then straight to the gym. And then it was actually positive. Bummer

I have a very light dry cough, only a couple of times per hour and that has been all so far. No headaches, no loss of taste, no being short winded (in fact I am trying to do HIT workouts at home now that I can't go to the gym), really nothing beyond mildly coughing every now and then.

Worst is being bored due to not being allowed to leave the house. Tried a second test yesterday to see whether I can leave isolation, but it was still positive. I actually didn't really expect it to be negative since I am still coughing from time to time. To be honest I just wanted to go to the test center to get out of the house. Visits to a test center is one of the very few occasions I am currently allowed to go outside.

I hope I finally become negative soon because my holiday ends on Monday and I freaking hate working from home. If I have to work in the first place, I want to do it at the office with my colleagues and a much more comfortable setup. I was going to office throughout the whole pandemic except for 2 month early in 2020 when everyone panicked we were ordered to not come to office. As soon as the choice was back to us I was back in office.

I am now even thinking of calling my doctor and asking to get a sick note, because I rather not work than work 8h on a small laptop. I'd probably get the note if I ask for it, but I am just ending 2 weeks of holiday and actually really need to catch up on stuff that needs to be finished before end of August.

But all in all I regret nothing. It was my first cruise ever and will definitely not be my last. In fact my next one might be this year again, because I meet some nice people there (who are all negative despite us hanging out close together) and they texted me whether I am game to do another one with them in early winter. 

Guess at least I can soon add "recovered" to me already being vaccinated twice and boostered once.


----------



## Hussar

SIgh - Japan  - huge sigh.


----------



## Zardnaar

What's gone wrong in Japan?


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> What's gone wrong in Japan?











						Japan reports 222,305 coronavirus cases; 33,466 in Tokyo
					

Japan on Saturday reported 222,305 coronavirus cases. The Tokyo metropolitan government reported 33,466 new coronavirus cases, down 3,348 from Friday. The number of infected people hospitalized with severe symptoms in Tokyo is 24, down two from Friday, health officials said. The nationwide...




					japantoday.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> Japan reports 222,305 coronavirus cases; 33,466 in Tokyo
> 
> 
> Japan on Saturday reported 222,305 coronavirus cases. The Tokyo metropolitan government reported 33,466 new coronavirus cases, down 3,348 from Friday. The number of infected people hospitalized with severe symptoms in Tokyo is 24, down two from Friday, health officials said. The nationwide...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> japantoday.com




 Ah figured something like that. NZ and Japan kept it at bay about the best anyone has. 

 Once Omicron got loose she's all over though. 

 Or government bought time for vaccines and a less deadly variant. Once it's out your options are very limited.


----------



## Hussar

Yup.  Japan is now number one for new cases.  After years of keeping it low, it just seems like everyone has given up.  Sigh.  This new BA 5 is just kicking our ass.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Yup.  Japan is now number one for new cases.  After years of keeping it low, it just seems like everyone has given up.  Sigh.  This new BA 5 is just kicking our ass.




 Same thing happened here. In a few weeks everything fell apart and government gave up due to lack of options. 

Mask use is excellent locally vut it seems we might be in a bubble here.


 1500+ dead now and 4200 odd cases per day. 









						Covid-19 update: 4238 new community cases, number of attributed deaths rises to 1502
					

The number of deaths in New Zealand confirmed as attributable to Covid-19 has risen above the 1500 mark, as 4238 new community cases are reported today.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## Mirtek

Some goods news: The German RKI officially views the latest summer wave to be at an end. Incidence just fell by again (-27% compared to previous week) and is now at 345.9.

49,839 new cases yesterday, although by now everybody expects a large number to be no longer registered. I am probably not registered either. Apparently only positive PCR tests are counted and many, including me, don't bother with them. I mean I had a cough plus a positive quick test at the test center so the situation was clear to me. Why bother wasting lab resources just to confirm what is already obvious? I just went home for 5 days and then back to the test cent for another quicktest on days 6/8/10 until I was finally negative again.

So it seems we'll can enter a short quite phase to better distinguish the ended summer wave from the next winter wave that will surely start in a few month.

My light cough is persisting but not much of a bother. I again go to the gym regularly and do my usual cardio and strength days without any decrease in my performance. I did visit my doctor and he says that a persisting cough stimulus is one of the most common post covid symptoms he sees in his patients. He stethoscoped my breathing and said I sound perfectly fine. He prescribed me a cortisone spray to use every morning and evening, but using it during the last two days actually made me feel worse. I'll give it a chance over the weekend, but if the cure continues to be worse than the disease I will stop using it and just wait until the cough vanishes on it's own, even if it will take another month.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Yeah, cough can be an indication of a genuine problem or just an indication of some low-end irritation your body is overreacting to.  This is particularly common with lingering coughs.


----------



## billd91

Hussar said:


> Yup.  Japan is now number one for new cases.  After years of keeping it low, it just seems like everyone has given up.  Sigh.  This new BA 5 is just kicking our ass.



Yeah. My in-laws cruise, for which they've already booked after many pandemic postponements, has been redirected from Japan to Hawaii.


----------



## JEB

‘Next Generation’ Moderna Coronavirus Booster Jab Approved for Use in Adults



> Moderna's chief medical officer, Dr Paul Burton, previously said that the new jab can boost a person's antibodies to such high levels that it may only be needed annually.


----------



## Thomas Shey

JEB said:


> ‘Next Generation’ Moderna Coronavirus Booster Jab Approved for Use in Adults




To make it clear, this is so far only in Britain.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> To make it clear, this is so far only in Britain.




Yes, but the US has already contracted to buy 170+ million doses of bivalent boosters from Moderna and Pfizer for this autumn and winter.  While it isn't available in the US, there's not much doubt it will become available.


----------



## Cadence

Brought COVID back with me from a business trip.  A few hours one morning coughing hurt, but that's luckily about it.  Family, who went too, have tested negative so far and had no symptoms and so I'm sleeping and staying in the guest room and wearing a mask in the rest of the house. ::knock on wood:::

A colleague got it much worse but seems to be on the upswing.

It appears that that the schools down here are treating it (the current strains with a lot of folks either having had it or having been vaxxed) kind of like  the flu in terms of not keeping kids home unless they have symptoms or a positive test.  Here's hoping the subsequent strains don't make us regret it.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Yes, but the US has already contracted to buy 170+ million doses of bivalent boosters from Moderna and Pfizer for this autumn and winter.  While it isn't available in the US, there's not much doubt it will become available.




Given some of the erratic responses from the FDA from things, my own position is that I believe it when they actually make it official.


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> Brought COVID back with me from a business trip.  A few hours one morning coughing hurt, but that's luckily about it.  Family, who went too, have tested negative so far and had no symptoms and so I'm sleeping and staying in the guest room and wearing a mask in the rest of the house. ::knock on wood:::
> 
> A colleague got it much worse but seems to be on the upswing.
> 
> It appears that that the schools down here are treating it (the current strains with a lot of folks either having had it or having been vaxxed) kind of like  the flu in terms of not keeping kids home unless they have symptoms or a positive test.  Here's hoping the subsequent strains don't make us regret it.




 Good luck. No beer for a bit?


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Good luck. No beer for a bit?



At least til my five days since first symptoms and my symptoms are done. :-(


----------



## Mezuka

Received my fourth dose of Pfizer on Saturday. Slept all Sunday. Ready to roll Monday morning. My wife is getting her 5th jab next week. She is immuno-suppressed.


----------



## Zardnaar

Need to look into 4th shot don't think I qualify and 3 was in January got Covid July go figure.


----------



## GreyLord

People and kids are getting sick recently all around me.  My county shows that the infections are lower than much of the rest of the state, but the counties next door show much higher rates of infection.  I wonder if there is something up with my county and they are miscounting or something?

Luckily it LOOKS like the cases are starting to drop in the counties by us, but a LOT of people have been getting sick recently, just not going to the doctor to get it checked out.


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> I wonder if there is something up with my county and they are miscounting or something?
> 
> Luckily it LOOKS like the cases are starting to drop in the counties by us, but a LOT of people have been getting sick recently, just not going to the doctor to get it checked out.




Well, you answer your own question - folks who don't go to the doctor can't be counted!


----------



## Aeson

GreyLord said:


> People and kids are getting sick recently all around me.  My county shows that the infections are lower than much of the rest of the state, but the counties next door show much higher rates of infection.  I wonder if there is something up with my county and they are miscounting or something?
> 
> Luckily it LOOKS like the cases are starting to drop in the counties by us, but a LOT of people have been getting sick recently, just not going to the doctor to get it checked out.



And Florida isn't known for keeping accurate records for Covid anyway.


----------



## Mirtek

Thomas Shey said:


> Yeah, cough can be an indication of a genuine problem or just an indication of some low-end irritation your body is overreacting to.  This is particularly common with lingering coughs.



It's fortunately entirely gone by now. I can't even pinpoint when it went away. I stopped the cortisone spray after the 3rd day, because I really felt like it made everything worse. Time between coughs became longer and longer until it just went away on it's own.

I'll now wait until November or early December and then get my 4th vaccine shot. Assuming that the negative test on August 2nd marks my actual recovery that should be long enough waiting period.

Today EU approved a new variant vaccine vs. BA.1 that should also be better against BA.4 and BA.5 (I guess the same as mentioned above that was approved by UK earlier). However a "true" vaccine for BA.5 is also already in certification and expected the be approved during September. So I hope I can get that for my 4th shot.


----------



## Aeson

I tested positive more than a week after the symptoms went away. I kept isolated just in case. 

I had heard that dead Covid virus can give a false positive. If that's the case, it would be difficult to pinpoint when you were no longer contagious.


----------



## Umbran

Aeson said:


> I had heard that dead Covid virus can give a false positive. If that's the case, it would be difficult to pinpoint when you were no longer contagious.




Correct.  The tests are built to help you find out _if you have it_.  

Whether you can give it to someone else would be a different question, one the available tests are not designed to answer.


----------



## Zardnaar

Government here is thinking of dripping masking requirements. Numbers are low and summer is coming up. 

 It has nothing at all to do with low polling numbers. Seems they backflip a lot based on polling.

 Mask use has been slipping occasionally see someone hot wearing one in supermarkets now and a bit more common elsewhere. 

 Numbers came up and NZ had less deaths in Covid era than pre Covid one of 9 nations. Less deaths from other causes eg flu and road accidents. 

 Borders closed we skipped two flu seasons back with a vengeance this year.


----------



## CapnZapp

Umbran said:


> Correct. The tests are built to help you find out _if you have it_.
> 
> Whether you can give it to someone else would be a different question, one the available tests are not designed to answer.



In an ideal world, maybe that question is really the best.

But to everybody except those trying to rules lawyer their way out of having to isolate, the question the test does answer is good enough.

The point is to make you stop infecting others. Better a person stays home a few days "too many" than a single day too little.


----------



## CapnZapp

Mirtek said:


> Today EU approved a new variant vaccine vs. BA.1 that should also be better against BA.4 and BA.5 (I guess the same as mentioned above that was approved by UK earlier). However a "true" vaccine for BA.5 is also already in certification and expected the be approved during September. So I hope I can get that for my 4th shot.



I would really like some accurate up-to-date information on this point, yes.

Currently, my government is only saying it's important to take fall booster and you shouldn't wait for the updated formula. Not good enough!

I would like a date and then get to decide for myself if the wait is worth it, thank you very much!

When, exactly, is my clinic going to be able offer the new shot? If it is a matter of weeks then I'll obviously wait. If it's a matter of (many) months I won't. And if it's somewhere in between, I'll have to decide based on that.

Part of it is that I would like the new formula to have been administered for at least two weeks before I take it myself. The old formula is tried and tested by now, and ideally the news will get a week or two to pick up on any unforseen side effects once the general public starts getting the new vaccine.


----------



## Zardnaar

Off to the doctor on Tuesday I'll ask him about a booster last was January. Not sure a 4th shot is an option.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> In an ideal world, maybe that question is really the best.




Would we even have this disease in an ideal world?  



CapnZapp said:


> The point is to make you stop infecting others. Better a person stays home a few days "too many" than a single day too little.




No argument there.


----------



## Ryujin

Isolation orders, in Ontario, Canada, are effectively a thing of the past now. Do you want another wave? Because that's how you get another wave. The Medical Officer of Health issued this advisory a few days ago:


If you have symptoms of any respiratory illness, stay home until symptoms have improved for at least 24 hours.
If you have a fever, stay home until it's completely gone.
If you have gastrointestinal symptoms, stay home until symptoms have improved for at least 48 hours.
After isolating at home, wear a mask in public for 10 days since the onset of symptoms.
If sick, avoid non-essential visits to vulnerable or older people for a full 10 days starting the day after symptoms appear — including visits to high-risk settings such as long-term care homes and hospitals.
If you're in the same household as someone who is sick or tested positive for COVID-19, mask in public spaces, even if you feel better, and avoid vulnerable individuals and settings for 10 days after exposure. Isolate immediately if you develop symptoms.


----------



## GreyLord

CapnZapp said:


> I would really like some accurate up-to-date information on this point, yes.
> 
> Currently, my government is only saying it's important to take fall booster and you shouldn't wait for the updated formula. Not good enough!
> 
> I would like a date and then get to decide for myself if the wait is worth it, thank you very much!
> 
> When, exactly, is my clinic going to be able offer the new shot? If it is a matter of weeks then I'll obviously wait. If it's a matter of (many) months I won't. And if it's somewhere in between, I'll have to decide based on that.
> 
> Part of it is that I would like the new formula to have been administered for at least two weeks before I take it myself. The old formula is tried and tested by now, and ideally the news will get a week or two to pick up on any unforseen side effects once the general public starts getting the new vaccine.




Get a booster and then get the updated one when you can.  My home just got hit hard with Covid (we were waiting to get the new booster, I think it comes out next week, that's one week too long for us).

Three people are sick in the household thus far, I am okay thus far, but I have people sick all around me right now.  My spouse is also down with it currently...so...it's me holding the helm right now trying to keep up the ship in the storm.


----------



## CapnZapp

Ryujin said:


> Isolation orders, in Ontario, Canada, are effectively a thing of the past now. Do you want another wave? Because that's how you get another wave. The Medical Officer of Health issued this advisory a few days ago:
> 
> 
> If you have symptoms of any respiratory illness, stay home until symptoms have improved for at least 24 hours.
> If you have a fever, stay home until it's completely gone.
> If you have gastrointestinal symptoms, stay home until symptoms have improved for at least 48 hours.
> After isolating at home, wear a mask in public for 10 days since the onset of symptoms.
> If sick, avoid non-essential visits to vulnerable or older people for a full 10 days starting the day after symptoms appear — including visits to high-risk settings such as long-term care homes and hospitals.
> If you're in the same household as someone who is sick or tested positive for COVID-19, mask in public spaces, even if you feel better, and avoid vulnerable individuals and settings for 10 days after exposure. Isolate immediately if you develop symptoms.



And soo many people (including probably the majority of twenty-somethings) will just straight up ignore all of that. 

Either the government forces you, or it just isn't happening. Either there is a lockdown (enforced at gunpoint if needed) or there isn't. That's the only two states a country can be in, as far as the virus is concerned.

So of course there are going to be another wave.


----------



## CapnZapp

GreyLord said:


> Get a booster and then get the updated one when you can.



That's great advice, except it isn't that easy. First off, I had covid for the second time this summer. The science doesn't provide a straight-up answer on how long natural immunity lasts, but I'm going with "a couple of months", explaining why I wasn't first in line when the #4 booster opened up just the other day. Secondly, I'm not sure I will be eligible for more than one booster shot (during any reasonable time frame, which I fear could be for as long as twelve months), and again, if the wait for the updated formula is short, I might as well take that.

Anyhoo. Thanks for your concern. 

PS. Since this thread isn't about providing medical advice, I urge y'all to ignore everything I say and instead ask your doctors. DS.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A WaPo article about “antigenic original sin” and what it may mean for COVID:

“Your first brush with coronavirus could affect how a fall booster works.  It’s a phenomenon known by the forbidding name of original antigenic sin, and, in the case of the coronavirus, it prompts a constellation of questions.”









						Your first brush with coronavirus could affect how a fall booster works — The Washington Post
					

It’s a phenomenon known by the forbidding name of original antigenic sin, and, in the case of the coronavirus, it prompts a constellation of questions.




					apple.news


----------



## Hussar

Booking my fourth now. Things in Japan still suck but slowly getting better.


----------



## Umbran

Thoughts from an epidemiologist about getting boosters:









						Considerations for your fall booster
					

This fall, everyone should get a bivalent COVID-19 booster. And, really, that’s all you need to know: Get a vaccine. Any bivalent vaccine. This fall. But, yes, we can use scientific data to optimize timing and, thus, protection. How long after infection/last vaccine should you booster?




					yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com


----------



## Thomas Shey

I'm still trying to find out if it makes any difference which booster you get.  I had Moderna shots all the way up, and wonder if its worth the effort to make sure I get that bivalent booster from them rather than the other one.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> I'm still trying to find out if it makes any difference which booster you get.  I had Moderna shots all the way up, and wonder if its worth the effort to make sure I get that bivalent booster from them rather than the other one.




What I've seen says that if there is a benefit to mixing Pfizer/Moderna, it is small.  There appears to be no harm in doing so, though, so you can mix, or just take whichever is available.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> What I've seen says that if there is a benefit to mixing Pfizer/Moderna, it is small.  There appears to be no harm in doing so, though, so you can mix, or just take whichever is available.



Though I would think that getting the newer dual formulation would be of greater benefit, as it addresses newer variants.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> Though I would think that getting the newer dual formulation would be of greater benefit, as it addresses newer variants.




Yeah, I was specifically talking about the dual formulation from which manufacturer.  I've already had a regular booster back in 2021, and then in May of this year.  I'll probably wait until October to get the next one (and some arguments suggest I should wait until December).


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Though I would think that getting the newer dual formulation would be of greater benefit, as it addresses newer variants.






Thomas Shey said:


> Yeah, I was specifically talking about the dual formulation from which manufacturer.




In case you see it, the term for the new formulation is "bivalent".  And yeah, getting your next booster as the bivalent one is a good idea.  Which manufacturer you get doesn't seem to matter much.


----------



## Thomas Shey

I'd just forgotten it for a moment; I keep trying to type it as "covalent".


----------



## GreyLord

GreyLord said:


> Get a booster and then get the updated one when you can.  My home just got hit hard with Covid (we were waiting to get the new booster, I think it comes out next week, that's one week too long for us).
> 
> Three people are sick in the household thus far, I am okay thus far, but I have people sick all around me right now.  My spouse is also down with it currently...so...it's me holding the helm right now trying to keep up the ship in the storm.




Update on my situation.

If you are religious, or have any religion, I'll accept any prayers you guys have right now.  Others around me seem to be improving but my situation is just getting worse.  I have Covid and it's been getting worse for the past few days.  Today I had pains in my chest in the back and on the sides.  I have to admit, I am somewhat worried.  Spouse is wanting me to report into the hospital possibly.  If you don't hear from me for a few days, I may be there.  Hopefully I'll be here posting though and not in there.

I can use any prayers you guys have in whatever religions you have, or if atheist, just your hopes and well wishes.  I don't know why I'm getting worse, but I am.

If nothing else, let me be a warning to others.  I was offered a second booster in late June.  I had that option or could wait for the new booster which at the time, they were hoping would come out in August.  I thought I'd wait until the new booster came.  Hindsight is 20/20...I WISH I had taken that booster back in June at this point.  I just got hit by this a wee bit to soon to be able to obtain the new booster as my second booster, and my other booster was a while ago.  

If you are ever given the same choice I was...take the booster.  Don't count on the new ones coming in time.  I did, and I may be screwed.


----------



## Zardnaar

Went to doctor today everything checked out post Covid. 1% lower on something involving oxygen but well within normal variation. 

 Can't get a booster though due to having Covid for 6 months which is something like January.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> Update on my situation.
> 
> If you are religious, or have any religion, I'll accept any prayers you guys have right now.  Others around me seem to be improving but my situation is just getting worse.  I have Covid and it's been getting worse for the past few days.  Today I had pains in my chest in the back and on the sides.  I have to admit, I am somewhat worried.  Spouse is wanting me to report into the hospital possibly.  If you don't hear from me for a few days, I may be there.  Hopefully I'll be here posting though and not in there.
> 
> I can use any prayers you guys have in whatever religions you have, or if atheist, just your hopes and well wishes.  I don't know why I'm getting worse, but I am.
> 
> If nothing else, let me be a warning to others.  I was offered a second booster in late June.  I had that option or could wait for the new booster which at the time, they were hoping would come out in August.  I thought I'd wait until the new booster came.  Hindsight is 20/20...I WISH I had taken that booster back in June at this point.  I just got hit by this a wee bit to soon to be able to obtain the new booster as my second booster, and my other booster was a while ago.
> 
> If you are ever given the same choice I was...take the booster.  Don't count on the new ones coming in time.  I did, and I may be screwed.




 If you're having breathing problems go to hospital ASAP don't wait. Hell go if you're not sure. 

 Worst it got for me was one night rang doctor and he put me straight on steroids and antibiotics and didn't get any worse.


----------



## South by Southwest

GreyLord said:


> Update on my situation.
> 
> If you are religious, or have any religion, I'll accept any prayers you guys have right now.  Others around me seem to be improving but my situation is just getting worse.  I have Covid and it's been getting worse for the past few days.  Today I had pains in my chest in the back and on the sides.  I have to admit, I am somewhat worried.  Spouse is wanting me to report into the hospital possibly.  If you don't hear from me for a few days, I may be there.  Hopefully I'll be here posting though and not in there.



I'm 100% with Zardnaar: get to the hospital ASAP if you aren't already there.


----------



## Umbran

GreyLord said:


> I have Covid and it's been getting worse for the past few days.  Today I had pains in my chest in the back and on the sides.  I have to admit, I am somewhat worried.  Spouse is wanting me to report into the hospital possibly.




Your spouse is correct.  Waiting can end up with you in dire circumstances.  

Go. To. A. Doctor.


----------



## GreyLord

Zardnaar said:


> If you're having breathing problems go to hospital ASAP don't wait. Hell go if you're not sure.
> 
> Worst it got for me was one night rang doctor and he put me straight on steroids and antibiotics and didn't get any worse.






South by Southwest said:


> I'm 100% with Zardnaar: get to the hospital ASAP if you aren't already there.






Umbran said:


> Your spouse is correct.  Waiting can end up with you in dire circumstances.
> 
> Go. To. A. Doctor.




Thanks.  I have gone to the doctor, they want to send me to the ER.  It is weird, my joints are also swelling, did not know Covid could cause that.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Honestly, if its one thing the pandemic years have taught me, its that its easier to list the symptoms COVID-19 _doesn't_ show at least sometimes than the ones it can.  And if your doctors tell you to go to the ER, for the sake of all gods, go to the ER!


----------



## GreyLord

Not that people will care, but I am now doing better.  No more pain in the lungs, no more swollen joints, but I still need to isolate and be careful for the next week or so.  Have a nasty cough.  Everyone else seems to be doing better at the home as well.  They recovered much faster and better than I.  Not sure why it hit me so hard.

I would 100% not recommend this experience for anyone else.  Would also 100% not want to do it again.

If given the choice again, I think I'll take whatever booster is available, screw waiting for a newer one, I'll take it when the window expires (the reason I originally didn't was it was at the end of June and at the time the hope was that the new booster might be out by August, which meant I would still have to wait a few more weeks anyways...that didn't quite go as planned).  

This has been a miserable experience.  I have had to cancel my RPG groups last week as well, and for the next two weeks.

On the bright side I'm getting a lot more TV and movies watched that I had wanted to watch.


----------



## South by Southwest

GreyLord said:


> *Not that people will care, but I am now doing better.*  No more pain in the lungs, no more swollen joints, but I still need to isolate and be careful for the next week or so.  Have a nasty cough.  Everyone else seems to be doing better at the home as well.  They recovered much faster and better than I.  Not sure why it hit me so hard.



We care.


GreyLord said:


> *If given the choice again, I think I'll take whatever booster is available, screw waiting for a newer one,*



You've convinced me to do the same; I _had _had that same idea of maximizing protection by waiting for the better-adapted boosters, but no more. I'm now focused on "one's best proven protection in the moment."


----------



## Umbran

South by Southwest said:


> You've convinced me to do the same; I _had _had that same idea of maximizing protection by waiting for the better-adapted boosters, but no more. I'm now focused on "one's best proven protection in the moment."




In the Boston area, at least, already the only booster you can find is the bivalent one.   Here's hoping the rollout goes as quickly in other areas.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

There’s an old sports adage about the coaching perspective on the relative talent levels of the athletes they coach or want to recruit:

”The best ability is availability.”

I think it has relevance Re: COVID vaccines.


----------



## Zardnaar

Went for our first post Covid post winter bush walk. Doctor said I got off reasonably lightly post Covid. 

 Wasn't hard completing the walk as such and been doing lt exercise last few weeks. 

 We both crashed and burned after it and had a nap. Pre Covid was hiking up small mountains. 





 Found a cool rock formation "weeping". Covered in ferns and mosses. 

  Want to do a mountain hike by end of year. Glad we didn't try the Ridgeline walk.


----------



## Zardnaar

Pretty much all restrictions dropped. 









						Covid-19 traffic light system, vaccine mandates and most mask requirements to end
					

The Covid-19 Protection Framework - also known as the traffic light system - will end tonight at 11.59pm: Here's what you need to know.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




Borders are also going to be completely open no vaccine requirements either. 

 A cynic might say it's election year next year and they're behind in the polls.


----------



## CleverNickName

Zardnaar said:


> Pretty much all restrictions dropped.
> 
> Borders are also going to be completely open no vaccine requirements either.
> 
> A cynic might say it's election year next year and they're behind in the polls.




What could possibly go wrong?


----------



## Zardnaar

CleverNickName said:


> What could possibly go wrong?




 Lack of choice I think. Vaccine use some of the highest on the world and numbers and hospital admissions bare down. 

 They probably should have kept masking requirements but lately that's been slipping anyway.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A little article that delves into some medical history driving current research into how some among us may be better equipped biologically to fight COVID than others.









						So you haven't caught COVID yet. Does that mean you're a superdodger?
					

A new study suggests that. yes, there are superdodgers. But explaining why they've been able to avoid the virus is a bit complicated.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Rikka66

Over two years of working with the public and spending the day with my dad watching football is what gets me.  



Dannyalcatraz said:


> A little article that delves into some medical history driving current research into how some among us may be better equipped biologically to fight COVID than others.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So you haven't caught COVID yet. Does that mean you're a superdodger?
> 
> 
> A new study suggests that. yes, there are superdodgers. But explaining why they've been able to avoid the virus is a bit complicated.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org




I had seen that and convinced myself a little I might be one of them. Look where hubris gets you.


----------



## Mirtek

In Germany the official recommendation is to use one of the new vaccines for the first booster (3rd shot). Initial vaccination should still be done with the original vaccines

Whether the one developement vs. B.A1 or B.A5 is said to be unimportant. Main mutations vs. older variants are apparently essentially the same between A1 and A5 if compared vs the wild type and thus they protect both well enough against the other.

A second booster (4th shoot) is still seen as unnecessary for anyone under 60 or part of special risk groups.

Anyone else who already has three shots from 2021 or early 2022 is not recommended to get a 4th one.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

More research on COVID shows increased long-term risk of certain brain injuries.









						COVID raises risk of long-term brain injury, large U.S. study finds
					

People who had COVID-19 are at higher risk for a host of brain injuries a year later compared with people who were never infected by the coronavirus, a finding that could affect millions of Americans, U.S. researchers reported on Thursday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## J.Quondam

Dannyalcatraz said:


> More research on COVID shows increased long-term risk of certain brain injuries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID raises risk of long-term brain injury, large U.S. study finds
> 
> 
> People who had COVID-19 are at higher risk for a host of brain injuries a year later compared with people who were never infected by the coronavirus, a finding that could affect millions of Americans, U.S. researchers reported on Thursday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com



I've wondered how these sorts of neurological issues might impact people who were infected but not "officially" ill (ie, not ill enough to go to a doctor, or even realize they had covid).
I've kept an eye out for info on this, but haven't seen anything.


----------



## Thomas Shey

J.Quondam said:


> I've wondered how these sorts of neurological issues might impact people who were infected but not "officially" ill (ie, not ill enough to go to a doctor, or even realize they had covid).
> I've kept an eye out for info on this, but haven't seen anything.




The problem is its probably too early to really know; people have to not only notice an increase in neurological issues, then try to tease out whether the person had COVID and didn't get hospitalized (realizing that in some cases _even they may not know_; its not like milder cases of COVID can't be confused for other things.  We didn't figure out with certainty that the thing we had in late 2019 was probably COVID until we started thinking about the unusual level of fatigue we had and talked to our doctor about it).

I suspect untangling the sequalae to all this is going to be a thing we're going to be doing for at least a decade.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Thomas Shey said:


> I suspect untangling the sequalae to all this is going to be a thing we're going to be doing for at least a decade.



At least.

Its only in the past few years we realized that HIV has been infecting humans since at least 1959, and has been in the USA since the early 1970s.  We just didn’t have the tools to recognize it.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well it's been over a week since they froped restrictions. Basically like a light switch in regards to mask use. 

 No staff really wearing them and supermarkets were very good along with restaurants. 

 Now hardly anyones wearing them.

 Covid numbers are way down the death toll is very low and vaccine rates hit 80% of the population btotal about 95% of everyone who could get them. 

 They're not handing out 2nd boosters/4th shot to everyone and if you get Covid add 6 months even if you qualify. I might be able to get one in January.


----------



## CapnZapp

Dannyalcatraz said:


> More research on COVID shows increased long-term risk of certain brain injuries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID raises risk of long-term brain injury, large U.S. study finds
> 
> 
> People who had COVID-19 are at higher risk for a host of brain injuries a year later compared with people who were never infected by the coronavirus, a finding that could affect millions of Americans, U.S. researchers reported on Thursday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com



This is one of those cases where you can never be too clear:

This risk relates to getting COVID.

Not related to getting the vaccine.

Cheers


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

That’s probably a good clarification, given…_gesticulating…_people.


----------



## R_J_K75

I thought this was the best place to say this, had to get it off my chest, so I'll say it. I don't consider myself part of any religion, but since I grew up in a predominate catholic family my brain defers to the Bible. Doesn't it seem like the S++T is going to hit the fan sooner than later? 

Pestilence - COVID
Famine - Supply Chain Upsets
War - South and North Korea as of yesterday, (this is the start of WW3 IMO)
Death always gets his Man  

I saw this on the local news and at the end they aired a 2-y/o kid with cancer story. I cried 

I dont have much faith in humanity these days. but I hope I'm wrong.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

As a lifelong practicing Catholic, I have to look at one key passage about Christian end-time prophecy, namely “you will not know the day or hour.”

To those who taught me, and I, agreeing, that passage indicates that trying to predict the end of the world is a fruitless endeavor, and can lead to erroneous conclusions.  Usually, that’s discussed in the context of following false prophets.  

But it can also be relevant to working ourselves up into fear or depression.  And those mental states can be VERY destructive to the self and to others.

I’m not saying “don’t worry, be happy”.  There’s plenty of reasons for concern.  And those concerns deserve attention and actions to resist them.  But I’m not of the mindset that, dire as things are, that this time we’re in is the end of days.


----------



## Zardnaar

I'm more what me worry. Can't do much about some things what will be will be.


----------



## Umbran

R_J_K75 said:


> Pestilence - COVID
> Famine - Supply Chain Upsets
> War - South and North Korea as of yesterday, (this is the start of WW3 IMO)
> Death always gets his Man




So, find us a time in history in which there _wasn't_ disease, famine, and war in the world.


----------



## BookTenTiger

Umbran said:


> So, find us a time in history in which there _wasn't_ disease, famine, and war in the world.



I think if you go back about 4 billion years before the advent of life on Earth, things were pretty peaceful?

As soon as matter started self replicating, the end has been right around the corner.


----------



## BookTenTiger

R_J_K75 said:


> I thought this was the best place to say this, had to get it off my chest, so I'll say it. I don't consider myself part of any religion, but since I grew up in a predominate catholic family my brain defers to the Bible. Doesn't it seem like the S++T is going to hit the fan sooner than later?
> 
> Pestilence - COVID
> Famine - Supply Chain Upsets
> War - South and North Korea as of yesterday, (this is the start of WW3 IMO)
> Death always gets his Man
> 
> I saw this on the local news and at the end they aired a 2-y/o kid with cancer story. I cried
> 
> I dont have much faith in humanity these days. but I hope I'm wrong.



Whenever I feel too down about humanity and the future, I think about how, at a very recent time in US history, lynchings were common and unpunished. That has (mostly) changed. But during that time, it must have looked absolutely bleak. It must have been hard to imagine a future in which this wasn't a frequent possibility.

During the Black Death, during the genocide of the Native Americans, during the Cold War, it must have seemed like the end of the world was just around the corner. Somehow we keep on going. Some things get better, others don't. But when I keep in mind that my country used to have a system of legalized slavery, and now it doesn't, that gives me at least a glimmer of hope for the future.


----------



## Baron Opal II

R_J_K75 said:


> I thought this was the best place to say this, had to get it off my chest, so I'll say it. I don't consider myself part of any religion, but since I grew up in a predominate catholic family my brain defers to the Bible. Doesn't it seem like the S++T is going to hit the fan sooner than later?



Let me tell you, 2020-21 was really rough for me.

Spring: Terrible ice storm where my family and I were homeless for two weeks.
Summer: Horrific forest fires where I saw a red moon and the very next day the sky was coal black at noon, for another week or two.
Fall: Covid comes in earnest.
Winter: Supply chain issues greatly impact my hospital.
Spring: The insurrection.



Dannyalcatraz said:


> As a lifelong practicing Catholic, I have to look at one key passage about Christian end-time prophecy, namely “you will not know the day or hour.”



And I was telling myself this throughout the year. Should it come, it won't be this obvious, and there will be at least one meteor / asteroid issue as well.

But, it has been very trying couple of years...


----------



## Zardnaar

We had it comparatively good for a few decades post war until the 80's and it's been slowly going downhill since then. A crisis or three shows the problems with the system. 

  Our grandparents and great grand parents had to deal with same things but life was bit harder back then so I guess they were better adapted to dealing with it. 


 Read enough history books the cycle continues.


----------



## GreyLord

Some thoughts on the recent unexpected turn of the thread...

On the Biblical note, many have looked for a second coming/end of the world for centuries, but in truth, the end of the world came sooner than they all expected...individually.

The end of the world is not necessarily some great big event, but each of us dies eventually, and for each of us, that is the end.

Whether it is to the quiet annihilation of nothingness in an endless sleep of a decaying body or in ashes, or to some judgement to decide whether we were good or bad or how we will be reincarnated or any sort of many other things that we have belief in, the end that we are looking for may be no further away then the end of our lives.

In that light, live the best life we can, be the best we can to others, and try to make the world better by our actions.

We saw in the pandemic so far those who only think of themselves, those who don't care to make the world better, and those who disregard anything that can help others.  

But we can't let that take our hope for the future of humanity away.  Despair is a very real thing, but if we despair and give up that only makes the world a darker place.  I avoided Covid-19 for a while, but eventually the way I acted and how others acted around me finally got me infected.  It would have been very easy to blame those around me, to get so down on myself that I lost hope, or to be bitter about it, but in the end I got very lucky/blessed/aided by modern science (even if I was stupid and didn't get the booster when I could in hopes of getting a better one in the future, I still was vaccinated.  With how bad I got hit, I think it could have been much worse if I had not been vaccinated previously.  That vaccination may have saved my life, I am glad for modern science and technology).

The only thing we have is today, and that applies to me as well.  I am looking forward to playing D&D with my friends, living my life, and trying to make the world a better place by being conscientious of my own actions and how it affects others and the future of the world to the best of my ability.  I can't change big things by myself, but I can join the collective efforts of others to try to preserve our world and make it better.

If it ends tomorrow, well, at least I know I did my best to make it better even if others destroyed it...or...I just have it end because I die.  If nothing else, at least I can know I tried.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> A crisis or three shows the problems with the system.




_Systems_ generally don't deal with crisis well.  Systems are static.  Crises are dynamic.



Zardnaar said:


> Our grandparents and great grand parents had to deal with same things but life was bit harder back then so I guess they were better adapted to dealing with it.




I don't know that my grandparents fleeing the Soviets had it worse than, say, Syrian refugees, or folks recently fleeing the Ukraine.  

What our grandparents had was a world of simpler technology, that didn't call for nearly as much global interconnectedness.  Distant problems could remain more distant.

That and, well, atomic weapons.  My grandparents didn't have to deal with the possibility of global nuclear war.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> _Systems_ generally don't deal with crisis well.  Systems are static.  Crises are dynamic.
> 
> 
> 
> I don't know that my grandparents fleeing the Soviets had it worse than, say, Syrian refugees, or folks recently fleeing the Ukraine.
> 
> What our grandparents had was a world of simpler technology, that didn't call for nearly as much global interconnectedness.  Distant problems could remain more distant.
> 
> That and, well, atomic weapons.  My grandparents didn't have to deal with the possibility of global nuclear war.




 Fundamentals of the US economy were different back then. Modern USA could not redo WW2 for example they can't produce the steel or aluminum anymore. 

 Similar thing here we couldn't do what our grandparents did. Local manufacturing is gone, and the government can't actually use the same measures they did back then. They made things like that illegal in 1990/93. 

 Everything has less room for crisis management. Look at shocks to gas or oil back then the biggest oil producers were Venezuela and USA middle eastern oil. 

 With double the population we couldn't mobilize half the men these days for war or anything else.

 Pretty much rest of OECD is in the same boat. Look what happens if a single ship blocks the Suez and proportionally the Spanish flu was way worse than Covid.

 Governments can't really enforce their will like they could back then. That's assuming the government has a plan and us vaguely competent that's rare these days.


----------



## Hussar

That’s not true @Zardnaar. 

We absolutely could mobilize to WWII levels. But it would require the same as it did back then - strict rationing and massive restrictions to personal freedoms. 

Think about it this way. The US just fought two of its longest armed conflicts ever, simultaneously. Without so much as a blip of raising taxes or a hint of a draft. 

It’s pretty unprecedented in history that a single nation has become that relatively powerful compared to other nations without massively colonizing and taking the resources of other nations. 

But if the US wanted to be the next great empire? The only thing stopping that is the Americans themselves.


----------



## Umbran

Hussar said:


> But if the US wanted to be the next great empire? The only thing stopping that is the Americans themselves.




And nuclear weapons.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> That’s not true @Zardnaar.
> 
> We absolutely could mobilize to WWII levels. But it would require the same as it did back then - strict rationing and massive restrictions to personal freedoms.
> 
> Think about it this way. The US just fought two of its longest armed conflicts ever, simultaneously. Without so much as a blip of raising taxes or a hint of a draft.
> 
> It’s pretty unprecedented in history that a single nation has become that relatively powerful compared to other nations without massively colonizing and taking the resources of other nations.
> 
> But if the US wanted to be the next great empire? The only thing stopping that is the Americans themselves.




 Blew out the national debt though fueling inflation. 

 You got rid of the draft after Vietnam similar reasons we did. 

 US couldn't deal with Covid how you gonna draft millions. Even if you did the USA can't manufacture the resources they could 70 years ago. 

 Look at vaccines a few decades ago vs polio and smallpox.

 Kinda moot point US doesn't need large amounts of manpower to win a war. They do to win the peace though but what's a couple of trillion wasted dollars here and there huh?

 NZ had the thought censorship in the allies in WW2 that's gone the government doesn't gave those powers anymore and society won't accept it.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Blew out the national debt though fueling inflation.
> 
> You got rid of the draft after Vietnam similar reasons we did.
> 
> US couldn't deal with Covid how you gonna draft millions. Even if you did the USA can't manufacture the resources they could 70 years ago.
> 
> Look at vaccines a few decades ago vs polio and smallpox.
> 
> Kinda moot point US doesn't need large amounts of manpower to win a war. They do to win the peace though but what's a couple of trillion wasted dollars here and there huh?
> 
> NZ had the thought censorship in the allies in WW2 that's gone the government doesn't gave those powers anymore and society won't accept it.



What?

They developed and distributed a Covid vaccine within what, three years of it becoming a problem?  To the point where the vast majority of the population has been vaccinated.  And resources?  Are you kidding?  The manufacturing capacity of the US now compared to 70 years ago isn't even in the same league.  Additionally, the Americans have never gotten rid of the draft.  They just haven't used it.  

But, yes, I do agree with you on one point.  The Americans have never really tried to win the world through direct power.  They are just buying their way to the top and it's worked surprisingly well.

I think the most telling statistic is that, up to a couple of years ago when China caught up a bit, the US spent more on its military than the entire world COMBINED.  Without raising taxes or instituting a draft system.  And they did this for a very, very long time.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> What?
> 
> They developed and distributed a Covid vaccine within what, three years of it becoming a problem?  To the point where the vast majority of the population has been vaccinated.  And resources?  Are you kidding?  The manufacturing capacity of the US now compared to 70 years ago isn't even in the same league.  Additionally, the Americans have never gotten rid of the draft.  They just haven't used it.
> 
> But, yes, I do agree with you on one point.  The Americans have never really tried to win the world through direct power.  They are just buying their way to the top and it's worked surprisingly well.
> 
> I think the most telling statistic is that, up to a couple of years ago when China caught up a bit, the US spent more on its military than the entire world COMBINED.  Without raising taxes or instituting a draft system.  And they did this for a very, very long time.




 Counter argument August 2021. 

 USA very good at kicking the crap out of whoever. Then what is the messy details.


----------



## niklinna

A UV Lamp That’s Bad for COVID but Not for You
					

Researchers are testing lights that have the early potential to transform the pandemic.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## CapnZapp

Zardnaar said:


> Fundamentals of the US economy were different back then. Modern USA could not redo WW2 for example they can't produce the steel or aluminum anymore.
> 
> Similar thing here we couldn't do what our grandparents did. Local manufacturing is gone, and the government can't actually use the same measures they did back then. They made things like that illegal in 1990/93.
> 
> Everything has less room for crisis management. Look at shocks to gas or oil back then the biggest oil producers were Venezuela and USA middle eastern oil.
> 
> With double the population we couldn't mobilize half the men these days for war or anything else.
> 
> Pretty much rest of OECD is in the same boat. Look what happens if a single ship blocks the Suez and proportionally the Spanish flu was way worse than Covid.
> 
> Governments can't really enforce their will like they could back then. That's assuming the government has a plan and us vaguely competent that's rare these days.



This assumes the government plays by the rules it itself has set.

You're absolutely right - Western democracies can't do today what they did in, say, 1942.

If they don't change the rules, that is.

But what makes you think they won't or can't.

America in 2022 is an absolute behemoth, only a sleeping one. If, I dunno, the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor or something , the US of A would absolutely do everything it did back then and much more.

All that's needed is a crisis that makes the public accept the government throwing out the rulebook.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> All that's needed is a crisis that makes the public accept the government throwing out the rulebook.




Or at least rapidly changing the rulebook.
Or, turning back to some of the parts of the rulebook that have not been relevant for a while.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Fundamentals of the US economy were different back then. Modern USA could not redo WW2 for example they can't produce the steel or aluminum anymore.



We’re actually 4th in steel production, globally, and tied with Iceland for 9th in annual aluminum prodiction.

And if things really hit the fan, I’m sure current research & investment into recycling metals from our dumps and landfills would get a HUGE cash injection from Uncle Sam.


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> This assumes the government plays by the rules it itself has set.
> 
> You're absolutely right - Western democracies can't do today what they did in, say, 1942.
> 
> If they don't change the rules, that is.
> 
> But what makes you think they won't or can't.
> 
> America in 2022 is an absolute behemoth, only a sleeping one. If, I dunno, the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor or something , the US of A would absolutely do everything it did back then and much more.
> 
> All that's needed is a crisis that makes the public accept the government throwing out the rulebook.




 When Japan hit USA the industrial plant was there although they built factories. They just turned on the money taps for the most part. 

 These days the plants aren't there any more and it takes to long to build new ones and it takes a long time manufacture moder planes for example.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We’re actually 4th in steel production, globally, and tied with Iceland for 9th in annual aluminum prodiction.
> 
> And if things really hit the fan, I’m sure current research & investment into recycling metals from our dumps and landfills would get a HUGE cash injection from Uncle Sam.




  Back then number 1 at basically everything. 

 Rebuilding can't be done in any reasonable timeframe though see previous reply. 

 Things were different in 1942 or whatever the population won't go along with what governments got away with back then Vietnam changed that. 

 Look at vaccination drives vs polio and smallpox vs modern day efforts recently. 

  Imagine a single submarine in Indian Ocean or South China Sea sinking oil tankers vs hundred of ships  in WW2 being sunk. 

 A single tanker blocking Suez caused all sorts of havoc.

 The fundamentals have changed with globizatiin/trade etc. The world's not as resilient economically. We're getting economic crisis every decade or so vs 1929-87. 

 I don't think any country could enforce a national draft to the same effect they did back then.


----------



## Mirtek

Lately I read about a "black day for the Russian air force" due to four planes being shot down over Ukraine in a single day. Four. During WW2 they'd send out hundreds of planes in a single raid, lost 50 and called it a success. 

Would any modern nation be able to bear the losses of a full fledged WW2 style war anymore? Adding Russian and Ukrainian losses over the eight months of invasion and it's much less than the casualties just from the one month (and a little) long Battle of the Bulge.

But I think we now so far off topic it's getting hard to spot the original thing this thread was supposed to be about. Maybe it's natural after over 500 pages,


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Back then number 1 at basically everything.




So, I'm going to burst a little bubble here.

At the height of WWII, the US produced about 80 million metric tons of steel. 



Spoiler: citation - Wikipedia



(History of the iron and steel industry in the United States - Wikipedia  The graph stops at 2014 because that's as far as data went when it was made, not because our production plummeted to zero)  But, yeah, or peak steel production wasn't in the war - it was in the 1970s.



Wanna guess how much steel the US produced in 2021?  About 80 million metric tons - with capacity to do about 100 million.


Spoiler: citation - Congressional report on US steel production



(https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47107)



The US capacity to produce steel _as a portion of overall world production_ has dropped.  But absolute production capacity is at WWII levels currently!  We have maintained (well, gained and lost) capacity - other nations have increased theirs.

The real way we managed so much wartime production wasn't so much in outright steel production as it was in _strict rationing_.  As an example, in 1941, in the US, we produced about 3 million consumer automobiles.  During the war, apparently that number dropped to... 139.  We basically _completely halted_ new car production.



Zardnaar said:


> Rebuilding can't be done in any reasonable timeframe though see previous reply.




Well, your previous reply was based on an erroneous premise.  We haven't actually lost capacity.



Zardnaar said:


> Things were different in 1942 or whatever the population won't go along with what governments got away with back then Vietnam changed that.




Don't bet on that.  The issue with the Vietnam War was that the American public saw little point in it, while the government pursued it.  This has been similar for most wars since that time.  But then, nobody's actually tried to take control of Europe in a full offensive either.



Zardnaar said:


> Look at vaccination drives vs polio and smallpox vs modern day efforts recently.




A bit of cherrypicking of a unique case there.  We cannot get into the politics of it, but under a different administration, it could have gone quite differently.



Zardnaar said:


> The fundamentals have changed with globizatiin/trade etc. The world's not as resilient economically. We're getting economic crisis every decade or so vs 1929-87.




So, wait a minute - you say we have become less resilient since WWII.... but use an example that starts _before_ WWII?  That doesn't say what you think it does.


----------



## niklinna

Mirtek said:


> But I think we now so far off topic it's getting hard to spot the original thing this thread was supposed to be about. Maybe it's natural after over 500 pages,



I got my booster a couple weeks back! Been seriously considering the monkeypox vaccine too but supplies are still limited and others need it more than I do, for now.


----------



## billd91

Mirtek said:


> Lately I read about a "black day for the Russian air force" due to four planes being shot down over Ukraine in a single day. Four. During WW2 they'd send out hundreds of planes in a single raid, lost 50 and called it a success.
> 
> Would any modern nation be able to bear the losses of a full fledged WW2 style war anymore? Adding Russian and Ukrainian losses over the eight months of invasion and it's much less than the casualties just from the one month (and a little) long Battle of the Bulge.



Hard to say. Germany, Japan, and the Soviet Union were able to sustain ridiculous number of casualties because they ultimately had little choice. They had brutal, authoritarian governments willing to spend human lives with an astonishing profligacy - something the various democracies involved may not have been so willing to sustain - and may have developed even less willingness to sustain over the years as our technological capabilities have improved. This is why the US spends so much effort with remote methods of killing people like drones (and rely on proxies on the ground).
And now, even Russia tends to rely on technology and expensive equipment more than mass quantity. That's why a black day for the Russian air force is 4 planes shot down in a single day.


----------



## Mirtek

niklinna said:


> I got my booster a couple weeks back! Been seriously considering the monkeypox vaccine too but supplies are still limited and others need it more than I do, for now.



I am getting my flu shot next week and will use this opportunity to ask for a second booster in middle to late November. Have another vacation planed starting 16th of December and then my first booster will be more than a year ago.

Currently that wouldn't matter (as far as travel regulations are concerned) but who knows what rules might be in place in a couple of weeks and since I never got the PCR to document my recovered status getting a fresh fourth shot certificate might be helpful.


----------



## billd91

Just to touch on a couple of things here:



Zardnaar said:


> Things were different in 1942 or whatever the population won't go along with what governments got away with back then Vietnam changed that.



The US government's pursuit of the Vietnam War and the revelation of massive cynicism behind both Johnson's and Nixon's policies shattered a lot of relationships between the US government and the press and the public - relationships that have generally not healed, helping to set up some of the problems we continue to have, including the COVID response. 


Zardnaar said:


> The fundamentals have changed with globizatiin/trade etc. The world's not as resilient economically. We're getting economic crisis every decade or so vs 1929-87.



I'm not sure I agree with this. Globalization has changed things - we're far more interconnected in many ways and that means a crisis in one place tends to spread. But thanks to the proliferation of social safety nets, they're generally not as deep or long as they were before the New Deal in the US and the spread of welfare states in the wake of WWII in Europe, the Americas, and parts of Asia/Oceania. That means, in many ways, we *are* more resilient, though less autarkic in the way we deal with it.


----------



## Zardnaar

billd91 said:


> Just to touch on a couple of things here:
> 
> 
> The US government's pursuit of the Vietnam War and the revelation of massive cynicism behind both Johnson's and Nixon's policies shattered a lot of relationships between the US government and the press and the public - relationships that have generally not healed, helping to set up some of the problems we continue to have, including the COVID response.
> 
> I'm not sure I agree with this. Globalization has changed things - we're far more interconnected in many ways and that means a crisis in one place tends to spread. But thanks to the proliferation of social safety nets, they're generally not as deep or long as they were before the New Deal in the US and the spread of welfare states in the wake of WWII in Europe, the Americas, and parts of Asia/Oceania. That means, in many ways, we *are* more resilient, though less autarkic in the way we deal with it.




 I'm aware of the Vietnam thing. Alot if the modern problems now have direct links to the aftermath of that conflict. 

 Choices made 40 years ago due to Vietnam are coming home to roost now.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> Lately I read about a "black day for the Russian air force" due to four planes being shot down over Ukraine in a single day. Four. During WW2 they'd send out hundreds of planes in a single raid, lost 50 and called it a success.
> 
> Would any modern nation be able to bear the losses of a full fledged WW2 style war anymore? Adding Russian and Ukrainian losses over the eight months of invasion and it's much less than the casualties just from the one month (and a little) long Battle of the Bulge.
> 
> But I think we now so far off topic it's getting hard to spot the original thing this thread was supposed to be about. Maybe it's natural after over 500 pages,




Cost of military toys has exceeded inflation. From memory

Tank 8-15k
Bomber 100k
Battleship 50 million. 

 These days crap tank 2 million.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> So, I'm going to burst a little bubble here.
> 
> At the height of WWII, the US produced about 80 million metric tons of steel.
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: citation - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> (History of the iron and steel industry in the United States - Wikipedia  The graph stops at 2014 because that's as far as data went when it was made, not because our production plummeted to zero)  But, yeah, or peak steel production wasn't in the war - it was in the 1970s.
> 
> 
> 
> Wanna guess how much steel the US produced in 2021?  About 80 million metric tons - with capacity to do about 100 million.
> 
> 
> Spoiler: citation - Congressional report on US steel production
> 
> 
> 
> (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47107)
> 
> 
> 
> The US capacity to produce steel _as a portion of overall world production_ has dropped.  But absolute production capacity is at WWII levels currently!  We have maintained (well, gained and lost) capacity - other nations have increased theirs.
> 
> The real way we managed so much wartime production wasn't so much in outright steel production as it was in _strict rationing_.  As an example, in 1941, in the US, we produced about 3 million consumer automobiles.  During the war, apparently that number dropped to... 139.  We basically _completely halted_ new car production.
> 
> 
> 
> Well, your previous reply was based on an erroneous premise.  We haven't actually lost capacity.
> 
> 
> 
> Don't bet on that.  The issue with the Vietnam War was that the American public saw little point in it, while the government pursued it.  This has been similar for most wars since that time.  But then, nobody's actually tried to take control of Europe in a full offensive either.
> 
> 
> 
> A bit of cherrypicking of a unique case there.  We cannot get into the politics of it, but under a different administration, it could have gone quite differently.
> 
> 
> 
> So, wait a minute - you say we have become less resilient since WWII.... but use an example that starts _before_ WWII?  That doesn't say what you think it does.




 And they can't do as much with said steel. 

 They're not number 1 anymore and the population is a lot bigger. The factories don't exist anymore and you can't really build a new factory in 1 year anymore like you could back then. 

 Financial and service sectors a way larger % these days. 

 USA still has a lot of advantages though self sufficient in food and energy, geography, demographics. That's the good news make the right decisions you'll do better than most in crisis situations.

 And what I said is modern USA couldn't refight WW2. Even if they could match a few metrics eg steel they can't turn it into useful toys, fund said war or mobilize the masses either.

 Not meant as an insult we couldn't do it either.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Look at vaccination drives vs polio and smallpox vs modern day efforts recently.



That kind of thing waxes & wanes in this country…unfortunately.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> So, I'm going to burst a little bubble here.
> 
> At the height of WWII, the US produced about 80 million metric tons of steel.
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: citation - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> (History of the iron and steel industry in the United States - Wikipedia  The graph stops at 2014 because that's as far as data went when it was made, not because our production plummeted to zero)  But, yeah, or peak steel production wasn't in the war - it was in the 1970s.
> 
> 
> 
> Wanna guess how much steel the US produced in 2021?  About 80 million metric tons - with capacity to do about 100 million.
> 
> 
> Spoiler: citation - Congressional report on US steel production
> 
> 
> 
> (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47107)
> 
> 
> 
> The US capacity to produce steel _as a portion of overall world production_ has dropped.  But absolute production capacity is at WWII levels currently!  We have maintained (well, gained and lost) capacity - other nations have increased theirs.
> 
> The real way we managed so much wartime production wasn't so much in outright steel production as it was in _strict rationing_.  As an example, in 1941, in the US, we produced about 3 million consumer automobiles.  During the war, apparently that number dropped to... 139.  We basically _completely halted_ new car production.
> 
> 
> 
> Well, your previous reply was based on an erroneous premise.  We haven't actually lost capacity.
> 
> 
> 
> Don't bet on that.  The issue with the Vietnam War was that the American public saw little point in it, while the government pursued it.  This has been similar for most wars since that time.  But then, nobody's actually tried to take control of Europe in a full offensive either.
> 
> 
> 
> A bit of cherrypicking of a unique case there.  We cannot get into the politics of it, but under a different administration, it could have gone quite differently.
> 
> 
> 
> So, wait a minute - you say we have become less resilient since WWII.... but use an example that starts _before_ WWII?  That doesn't say what you think it does.



Prime Minister Winston Churchill, to the Prime Minister of Japan (who unfortunately was not actually in a position to tell the Imperial Army what to do), December 1941: Are you aware the US can out-produce Japan in steel and oil and other essential wartime resources by 10-to-1 ? 

We know the result.  
Today with more like 1-to-1 production capacity vs likely opponents, the long-term outcome is far less certain.  We also cannot rely on buying a year of time getting our pre-war armed forces clobbered while we tune up the Economic Miracle Machine to build replacements for everything.


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> Prime Minister Winston Churchill, to the Prime Minister of Japan (who unfortunately was not actually in a position to tell the Imperial Army what to do), December 1941: Are you aware the US can out-produce Japan in steel and oil and other essential wartime resources by 10-to-1 ?
> 
> We know the result.
> Today with more like 1-to-1 production capacity vs likely opponents, the long-term outcome is far less certain.  We also cannot rely on buying a year of time getting our pre-war armed forces clobbered while we tune up the Economic Miracle Machine to build replacements for everything.




 The other key difference bfor crisis response was USA had access to the industrial capacity it wasn't being used. 

 It was already picking up 1940 due to British and French war orders. 

 Alot of the "miracles" in batent that miraculous once you look at the actual reasons. Essentially they just turned the money taps on and had some very clever people. 

 That capacity isn't actually their anymore.  The boots on the ground aren't there last o heard they were short of said boots as well. 

 USS Big Stick can still crush anyone it's the aftermath though. They don't need to refight WW2. 

 The main point was for crisis management the resources, will and ability aren't there anymore. 

  We can't do it either we mobilized 100k from 2 million these days we can do 250k. Well no people would just leave and if you shutvthat off a good chunk would just take the jail term plus protests in the streets. 

 Sure it's not impossible theoretically but yeah. 

 Here they actually made things government could do illegal. They could theoretically change the law but yeah protests, riots, point blank refusal. 

  War just an example see vaccinations for more modern example.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Today with more like 1-to-1 production capacity vs likely opponents, the long-term outcome is far less certain.




The assertion was that we could no longer meet WWII production levels in steel.  That is clearly inaccurate.  I have proven that point.  

So, are you trying to move the goalposts, or make a different point?

Please include how your answer is relevant, given the fact that modern warfare is not, and has not for decades, been about who can put the most armor in the field.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> The assertion was that we could no longer meet WWII production levels in steel.  That is clearly inaccurate.  I have proven that point.
> 
> So, are you trying to move the goalposts, or make a different point?
> 
> Please include how your answer is relevant, given the fact that modern warfare is not, and has not for decades, been about who can put the most armor in the field.




  I said USA couldn't refight WW2.  They might be able to do some things eg steel the book I read was several years ago. 

 But it depends on the types of steel as well  there's multiple types 11 main ones iirc. Rebar isn't gonna work as armor. 

 It broke down a lot down to how, who and where the military recruits from, boots on ground, ammunition shortages in Iraq, how the war (WW2) was financed.  The conclusion was modern USA could not redo WW2. The fundamentals aren't there anymore. Factories are gone, tax won't pay for it, debt levels to high. 

  Context of this thread do I need to point out the differences in vaccination rates? There's more weak points for crisis these days less ways to deal with a crisis. 

 One regional war can cripple Europe, one mild epidemic (by historical standards) results in trillions of economic damages. 

 Shortages of toilet paper, baby powder and face masks also come to mind. One meat plant breaks down or a baby formula factory has issues. 

 That's what I'm specifically talking about.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

A lot of _that_ weakness in the USA is a currently oversized unwillingness/inability to act in unison for achieving greater goals…for a LOT of reasons.

In WW1 & WW2, Americans were very willing to make sacrifices to achieve victory.  Ditto the vaccination efforts to combat polio.  

But- like today’s situation illustrates very clearly- that’s a cyclical thing.  That instinct waxes and wanes.  As successful as we were with polio, it took a LOT of work to achieve similar headway with smallpox.  Other pathogens we’ve made great strides against- like measles, syphillis and tuberculosis- have been resurgent the past few years.

Hopefully, we’ll get our act together again before we REALLY screw the pooch.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> A lot of _that_ weakness in the USA is a currently oversized unwillingness/inability to act in unison for achieving greater goals…for a LOT of reasons.
> 
> In WW1 & WW2, Americans were very willing to make sacrifices to achieve victory.  Ditto the vaccination efforts to combat polio.
> 
> But- like today’s situation illustrates very clearly- that’s a cyclical thing.  That instinct waxes and wanes.  As successful as we were with polio, it took a LOT of work to achieve similar headway with smallpox.  Other pathogens we’ve made great strides against- like measles, syphillis and tuberculosis- have been resurgent the past few years.
> 
> Hopefully, we’ll get our act together again before we REALLY screw the pooch.




 Not disagreeing. As another poster mentioned the wounds of Vietnam run deep. Can't disagree with that statement.


----------



## Hussar

I’d point out that in 1991, the US took on the worlds third largest armed forces and crushed it in a month or two. 

That’s what happens is the US actually gets motivated.


----------



## Rabulias

Zardnaar said:


> I said USA couldn't refight WW2.



And that may be intentional. As @Umbran pointed out, modern warfare is not like WWII. It would be foolish to maintain readiness for such a war today.


----------



## Maxperson

Eltab said:


> We know the result.
> Today with more like 1-to-1 production capacity vs likely opponents, the long-term outcome is far less certain.  We also cannot rely on buying a year of time getting our pre-war armed forces clobbered while we tune up the Economic Miracle Machine to build replacements for everything.



We maintain the 3rd largest standing army in the world and outspend the 2nd place country on military spending by triple.  Our military tech if it is not already the finest is among those at the top and we have a ginormous stockpile of top of the line military hardware to draw upon.  

We have that year(and more) already stockpiled, and we have several weapons corporations that already have the means and would just love to make tons of money ramping up production.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> One regional war can cripple Europe, one mild epidemic (by historical standards) results in trillions of economic damages.




So, interesting history here.

A major reason the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 didn't have all the much of an economic impact on the US isn't that we were a sturdier economy - it was that we were in WWI at the time the pandemic began.  About 6% of the labor force was in the armed forces, and 38% of the GDP of the US was government spending, and the government _did not stop_ for the flu.

Much like the economic dislocation of covid-19 was short lived, largely due to government spending.  Go figure.



Zardnaar said:


> Shortages of toilet paper, baby powder and face masks also come to mind. One meat plant breaks down or a baby formula factory has issues.




So, in reality, this is easily fixable.  I have an example.

Back just after WWII, Toyota was in trouble.  They needed to get their cars into the American market, but aside from ill-will after the war, their cars were expensive, and poor quality.  So, the company knuckled down, innovated, and crated the basis of what we now call, "lean manufacturing."

Before this, car manufacturing (and indeed, most major manufacturing) was done on a yearly cycle - the "model year" is based in this.  You had a design, you made a large number of them all at once, and then tried to sell them.  Stuff you couldn't sell became inventory that didn't move.

Lean manufacturing notes that any inventory you don't need, either in supply or finished product, is a financial liability, and needs to be eliminated. They replaced the yearly cycle with "just in time" manufacturing, which led to using "just in time" supply.  This, along with some other innovations in process, has rocketed Toyota into the top of automotive production and sales.

So, of course, everyone else has copied them, and everyone is using "just in time" supply.

Which, as you might guess, falls apart when the supply chain is disrupted.

Back at the beginning of the pandemic, folks may recall that it was nearly impossible to find a new car to purchase - the supply of computer chips was disrupted, so cars weren't getting made.

Except for, you guessed it, Toyota.

Back in 2011, there was a tsunami that hit Japan, and it did major damage to two industries - plastics (specifically for this example, the plastics used in creating the safety glass used in cars) and chip manufacture.  And Toyota was hosed - the plastics industry rebounded quickly, but their computer chip supply took much longer.

So, there was a big company meeting, where they analyzed their supply chains, and noted which supplies are apt to bounce back quickly from disruption, and which were not, and started keeping inventory of computer chips and a few other things so that they can keep producing when supply is disrupted.  So, when covid-19 hit, they could keep producing cars when others couldn't.

The problem is that the rest of the world only sloppily copies Toyota.  They still grasp it as "inventory is a liability" and not "inventory _that you don't need_ is a liability.  Toyota needs that inventory as a hedge against disruption, so they keep it.

The problem isn't that the world is so connected.  The problem is that in that connected world, corporate profit seeking is nearsighted.  If corporations learn from their mistakes, they can build themselves a buffer against disruption.


----------



## Ralif Redhammer

I got my bivalent booster on Sunday. I was able to just go as a walk-in to a Rite Aid. I was mostly just tired and sore, though I didn't sleep well at all that night (but that's also taking into account a pulled muscle and two cats). 

As far as the end of the world goes, I would cite Stantz and Hudson:


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> I’d point out that in 1991, the US took on the worlds third largest armed forces and crushed it in a month or two.
> 
> That’s what happens is the US actually gets motivated.




 30 years ago you had massive stockpiles of cold war era stuff.







Umbran said:


> So, interesting history here.
> 
> A major reason the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 didn't have all the much of an economic impact on the US isn't that we were a sturdier economy - it was that we were in WWI at the time the pandemic began.  About 6% of the labor force was in the armed forces, and 38% of the GDP of the US was government spending, and the government _did not stop_ for the flu.
> 
> Much like the economic dislocation of covid-19 was short lived, largely due to government spending.  Go figure.
> 
> 
> 
> So, in reality, this is easily fixable.  I have an example.
> 
> Back just after WWII, Toyota was in trouble.  They needed to get their cars into the American market, but aside from ill-will after the war, their cars were expensive, and poor quality.  So, the company knuckled down, innovated, and crated the basis of what we now call, "lean manufacturing."
> 
> Before this, car manufacturing (and indeed, most major manufacturing) was done on a yearly cycle - the "model year" is based in this.  You had a design, you made a large number of them all at once, and then tried to sell them.  Stuff you couldn't sell became inventory that didn't move.
> 
> Lean manufacturing notes that any inventory you don't need, either in supply or finished product, is a financial liability, and needs to be eliminated. They replaced the yearly cycle with "just in time" manufacturing, which led to using "just in time" supply.  This, along with some other innovations in process, has rocketed Toyota into the top of automotive production and sales.
> 
> So, of course, everyone else has copied them, and everyone is using "just in time" supply.
> 
> Which, as you might guess, falls apart when the supply chain is disrupted.
> 
> Back at the beginning of the pandemic, folks may recall that it was nearly impossible to find a new car to purchase - the supply of computer chips was disrupted, so cars weren't getting made.
> 
> Except for, you guessed it, Toyota.
> 
> Back in 2011, there was a tsunami that hit Japan, and it did major damage to two industries - plastics (specifically for this example, the plastics used in creating the safety glass used in cars) and chip manufacture.  And Toyota was hosed - the plastics industry rebounded quickly, but their computer chip supply took much longer.
> 
> So, there was a big company meeting, where they analyzed their supply chains, and noted which supplies are apt to bounce back quickly from disruption, and which were not, and started keeping inventory of computer chips and a few other things so that they can keep producing when supply is disrupted.  So, when covid-19 hit, they could keep producing cars when others couldn't.
> 
> The problem is that the rest of the world only sloppily copies Toyota.  They still grasp it as "inventory is a liability" and not "inventory _that you don't need_ is a liability.  Toyota needs that inventory as a hedge against disruption, so they keep it.
> 
> The problem isn't that the world is so connected.  The problem is that in that connected world, corporate profit seeking is nearsighted.  If corporations learn from their mistakes, they can build themselves a buffer against disruption.




 That's a great story I've heard parts of it before about just in time inventory system. Seems Toyata learnt a lesson with tsunami. 

 Also like their cars they're super popular here.

  When I was a kid small town or city had a small manufacturing or services. Eg hours has a small milk factory a d a call center for the (only) phone company. 

 Alot of that didn't survive the 80's. Now the milk factory is 3 hours north a d services half the south Island iirc. 

  Same with shoes, electronics or cars that's all gone. Horribly inefficient. If you wanted a new phone back then you smashed your old one as they wouldn't replace them and you couldn't buy one


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> The problem is that the rest of the world only sloppily copies Toyota.  They still grasp it as "inventory is a liability" and not "inventory _that you don't need_ is a liability.  Toyota needs that inventory as a hedge against disruption, so they keep it.



Another lesson Toyota learned is that “salaries you can’t afford are a liability”. 

Their salary structure in upper management is a LOT flatter than you’d see in their American counterparts.  Not that you don’t need top talent in the uppermost echelons of your company, but if your salary structure is too top-heavy, you’re sacrificing corporate flexibility for executive compensation.   When your company’s resources aren’t tied up in a slew of bonuses and golden parachutes, you can actually throw money at problems that can be solved by money throwing.


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> The assertion was that we could no longer meet WWII production levels in steel.  That is clearly inaccurate.  I have proven that point.
> 
> So, are you trying to move the goalposts, or make a different point?
> 
> Please include how your answer is relevant, given the fact that modern warfare is not, and has not for decades, been about who can put the most armor in the field.



It's OK if you don't get my point.  I may be an unclear communicator, or I may be addressing a field outside your experience.

The snark and condesension, however, are unnecessary.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> The snark and condesension, however, are unnecessary.




The whole digression of talking about wartime production is unnecessary in a thread about a disease.


----------



## GreyLord

Umbran said:


> Back at the beginning of the pandemic, folks may recall that it was nearly impossible to find a new car to purchase - the supply of computer chips was disrupted, so cars weren't getting made.




I still have trouble getting a new car.  I like to go out to the lot, look and see the car I'm going to actually buy...but none of the car areas around where I am at have had this experience for a while (though, if I travel 30 miles I think there IS a toyota place, I hadn't thought of going out there to look.  If they actually have cars to sell on the lot, that would be great).

Instead, everyone has people pre-order the car online.  They are already sold by the time they come to the car sellers.  

I don't care for this as you never know what you are actually getting.  You can't look at the engine, or see the inside, you can't drive it to see if it has some bumps or anything, you just have to hope.

Last car I bought was 2020, but that was some of the last ones they had on the lot before this entire pre-order thing became the way of the day.

It could be nice if Toyota still has the car on the lot sales process.


----------



## GreyLord

niklinna said:


> A UV Lamp That’s Bad for COVID but Not for You
> 
> 
> Researchers are testing lights that have the early potential to transform the pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theatlantic.com




In the beginning of the Pandemic I bought this Phone-bath thingy, which basically is a box with a UV light in it.  You put your electronics or whatever in it for a time period and supposedly it is sanitized by it.  

Used it for safety precautions, never knowing if it actually was doing something or not.  Sounds like it may have been doing something.


----------



## Thomas Shey

GreyLord said:


> In the beginning of the Pandemic I bought this Phone-bath thingy, which basically is a box with a UV light in it.  You put your electronics or whatever in it for a time period and supposedly it is sanitized by it.
> 
> Used it for safety precautions, never knowing if it actually was doing something or not.  Sounds like it may have been doing something.




We got a UV-C wand, but you have to use those with great care, both with glasses and gloves.  It ended up being pretty impractical.


----------



## CapnZapp

As a reply to several posts regarding the industrial capacity of the US. 

The US has fought every war since WWII with one (both?) hands tied behind its back. 

Everything is about not disrupting civilian life back in the States. The Vietnam War came closest to doing this (=forcing Average Joe to making sacrifices), and in the end the US lost because it threatened to actually make a difference. 

Every war since? Not even a blip, in comparison. 

If the US were to ever make an effort on the scale of WWII, that is, transform into a war-time economy, it would totally and easily be able to produce thousands of fighter jets and tanks, and once more be able to lose 50 bombers in a single mission and still call it a success. 

Please don't confuse what a country can do in these two modes:
a) regular citizens don't even have to realize the country is fighting a war in the first place
with
b) the US government forces every young man (and woman?) into uniform. Every corporation is possibly forced to produce war materiel (at gunpoint, if needed). Civilian stuff is reduced to basic necessities, and production of war materiel is doubled and doubled and doubled and THEN doubled again. Trillions of dollars that previously couldn't be allocated to saving the climate or feed the poor suddenly materialize to send technological development into the stratosphere.

The US is many MANY times richer and more capable in 2020 than in 1940. If it's capable of doing most of the things the US managed back in WWII while still allowing its citizens to focus on such important things as hating each other on Facebook and purchasing new iPhones , imagine what it could do if some outer force REALLY stirred the ant-hive, and magically made most Americans agree it was worth risking your life to defend the free world?

On topic  I took the second booster yesterday (shot number 4 for those counting). The clinic said it was an updated formula (from Pfizer), but noone seemed to know _which_ updated formula (I think there are two?)


----------



## Zardnaar

Well the context was things government could do back then they can't now. 
 The "national will" or whatever you want to call it isn't there. People would take jail time vs conscription for example. Well they would be in the streets first. 

 Less control over media as well.


----------



## Umbran

CapnZapp said:


> On topic  I took the second booster yesterday (shot number 4 for those counting). The clinic said it was an updated formula (from Pfizer), but noone seemed to know _which_ updated formula (I think there are two?)




Authorized for use, Pfizer has its original covid-19 vaccine, and one bivalent approved for use as a booster.  I would expect them to have other versions in the works, but none have authorization for use.

Moderna also has it's original vaccine, and a bivalent booster authorized.

There is also a Novavax and Janssen vaccine out there, using different technologies.


----------



## Zardnaar

I can't get a 4th shot until January minimum and idk if I qualify.

 1sy boost was mid to late January and I got Covid early July so that adds 6 months to the time required.


----------



## CapnZapp

Zardnaar said:


> Well the context was things government could do back then they can't now.
> The "national will" or whatever you want to call it isn't there. People would take jail time vs conscription for example. Well they would be in the streets first.
> 
> Less control over media as well.



You are hard to discuss with.

I am quite literally saying the government absolutely can do now what they could do back then. You just have never seen it happen.

Please don't interpret my words to have the exact opposite meaning.

Regarding the "will isn't there": to me there's an obvious difference between what most often can be called a "colonial adventure" (Korea, Vietnam, Irak, Afghanistan) and an absolute threat to your way of life (Nazi Germany). Saying there "isn't a will" to argue it can't be don't simply ignores the fact Pax Americana hasn't been even close to threatened these last eighty years.

That does not mean it can't be done.

You seem to argue from the viewpoint of someone assuming the government would do this against the will of its people, but that's obviously not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about a situation where the majority of Americans see a clear and direct threat to their loved ones, where politicians forget their squabbles and unite into action.

At such a point you would definitely see what the US government is capable of doing, gloves off.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

CapnZapp said:


> At such a point you would definitely see what the US government is capable of doing, gloves off.



Paraphrasing what someone said elsewhere, you don’t want to find out why Americans don’t have great healthcare…


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Paraphrasing what someone said elsewhere, you don’t want to find out why Americans don’t have great healthcare…




 Seen that meme already today


----------



## Zardnaar

CapnZapp said:


> You are hard to discuss with.
> 
> I am quite literally saying the government absolutely can do now what they could do back then. You just have never seen it happen.
> 
> Please don't interpret my words to have the exact opposite meaning.
> 
> Regarding the "will isn't there": to me there's an obvious difference between what most often can be called a "colonial adventure" (Korea, Vietnam, Irak, Afghanistan) and an absolute threat to your way of life (Nazi Germany). Saying there "isn't a will" to argue it can't be don't simply ignores the fact Pax Americana hasn't been even close to threatened these last eighty years.
> 
> That does not mean it can't be done.
> 
> You seem to argue from the viewpoint of someone assuming the government would do this against the will of its people, but that's obviously not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about a situation where the majority of Americans see a clear and direct threat to their loved ones, where politicians forget their squabbles and unite into action.
> 
> At such a point you would definitely see what the US government is capable of doing, gloves off.




 Fir that to happen though the conditions aren't there anymore. 

 Watched some old Walter Kronkite clips from the 1960's. Draft ended in the 70's you should be able to figure out why. 

 Military also seems short staffed it's a lot smaller than it was 39 years ago. 

 Don't get me wrong I think the US can thump anyone they want to in a convectional war. But you require boots on ground. 

 Impossible strictly not. But may as well be. 

 The context was crisis management the conditions that enabled the responses in 1929-45 don't exist any more on multiple levels. 

 Hell here it's actually illegal. 

 Crisis is exactly that not maybe spend 50 years fixing things. There's 3 crisis brewing 2 can fire off at any time, 1 from January next year.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> ...you should be able to figure out why.




If you are going to make an assertion, you shoudl support it.  "I am right, you'll see it if you go do the homework" is not solid discussion.

Or, to put it another way - if you aren't going to offer support for your assertions, we don't need support to dismiss them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> If you are going to make an assertion, you shoudl support it.  "I am right, you'll see it if you go do the homework" is not solid discussion.
> 
> Or, to put it another way - if you aren't going to offer support for your assertions, we don't need support to dismiss them.




 Said reason violates forum rules. They seem flexible anyway so if I have your explicit permission to go more in depth.

 Polite version is good governance. 

 Not the only reason. Just using the mist recent examples of crisis management and things like Afghanistan withdrawal. 

 Biggest reason is economic though.


----------



## Hussar

Ok, let's back up a second.

The US managed to fight the two longest armed conflicts in its history concurently.  

All while spending slightly less than 5% of it's GDP on its military.  LOTS of countries spend more on their military than the US does, as a percent of their GDP.  Hell, JAPAN spends more than the US.  The point being is that 5% of its GDP was enough to outspend (up until the last decade or so anyway) the ENTIRE WORLD COMBINED.  

The US doesn't have to go to WWII level spending.  A 1% increase in the US Defense budget again puts in ahead of the entire world combined.  What a lot of people don't recognize is that the US economy is just that much larger than everyone else.  California, by itself, has a larger GDP than every other country other than the US and China.  Never minding the other 49 states.  

@Zardnaar - to put it in perspective.  The US spends less than 5% of it's GDP on its military.  That's THREE TIMES the ENTIRE GDP of New Zealand.  

Pump that up to even 10% and it's unbelievable amounts of resources.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Ok, let's back up a second.
> 
> The US managed to fight the two longest armed conflicts in its history concurently.
> 
> All while spending slightly less than 5% of it's GDP on its military.  LOTS of countries spend more on their military than the US does, as a percent of their GDP.  Hell, JAPAN spends more than the US.  The point being is that 5% of its GDP was enough to outspend (up until the last decade or so anyway) the ENTIRE WORLD COMBINED.
> 
> The US doesn't have to go to WWII level spending.  A 1% increase in the US Defense budget again puts in ahead of the entire world combined.  What a lot of people don't recognize is that the US economy is just that much larger than everyone else.  California, by itself, has a larger GDP than every other country other than the US and China.  Never minding the other 49 states.
> 
> @Zardnaar - to put it in perspective.  The US spends less than 5% of it's GDP on its military.  That's THREE TIMES the ENTIRE GDP of New Zealand.
> 
> Pump that up to even 10% and it's unbelievable amounts of resources.




 I'm aware of that. Never denied USA is good at blowing stuff up it's what comes after that you run into problems. Trillion dollars down the drain or was it 2 trillion? 
Not my tax money what me worry?


----------



## niklinna

Maybe spin off a new thread to continue the topic of U.S. military spending please.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> I'm aware of that. Never denied USA is good at blowing stuff up it's what comes after that you run into problems. Trillion dollars down the drain or was it 2 trillion?
> Not my tax money what me worry?



?

I'm not even sure what you're arguing anymore.  You started by claiming that the US couldn't maintain a WWII level of military power.   This is countered by the fact that the US currently fields an armed forces that is so far beyond what any single country could field, with the possible exception of China, that it's historically unprecedented. 

I've quite lost the point you were trying to make.

------

Yeah, niklinna - you are absolutely right.  This is far too political for the boards and very much not on topic.  I will drop it now.


----------



## Umbran

*Mod Note:*
Folks, this thread is about the pandemic.  Not military spending.

Time to get back on track, everyone.


----------



## Zardnaar

Went to supermarket, mask use has collapsed hardly saw one. 

 Boring stuff.








						Covid-19 data visualisations: NZ in numbers
					

Track the very latest Covid-19 data in New Zealand, with new charts on the current trends from RNZ data journalist Farah Hancock.




					www.rnz.co.nz
				




 Deathtolls down to something close to pre pandemic flu season. Less than 10 a week pre pandemic flu toll was several hundred a year iirc. 

 Vaccination rates hit 80%+, booster shots are lower (53%) seems getting Covid counts as booster shot. 

 Borders open last restrictions around foreign workers are gone burger soon.


----------



## CapnZapp

Umbran said:


> Authorized for use, Pfizer has its original covid-19 vaccine, and one bivalent approved for use as a booster.  I would expect them to have other versions in the works, but none have authorization for use.
> 
> Moderna also has it's original vaccine, and a bivalent booster authorized.
> 
> There is also a Novavax and Janssen vaccine out there, using different technologies.



I seem to remember there being talk of two updated vaccines on the table. America chose one for the 4 or 5 strain while Europe chose the 1 strain. The nurse at one clinic claimed her clinic had one update while the other local clinic offered the other.

I could be entirely wrong. (The nurse could be wrong, misinformed, or just misunderstood by me)


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Went to supermarket, mask use has collapsed hardly saw one.



Our family still wears masks, but we’re far and away the exceptions.  Buuuut, we’re in Texas, so it’s not a shocker.

Dad is watching the numbers closely.  He’s leaning towards us putting them aside if they keep dropping.  (We’re all fully vaxxed & boosted.)


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Our family still wears masks, but we’re far and away the exceptions.  Buuuut, we’re in Texas, so it’s not a shocker.
> 
> Dad is watching the numbers closely.  He’s leaning towards us putting them aside if they keep dropping.  (We’re all fully vaxxed & boosted.)




  Mostly gone think they messed up the rules and people stopped obeying. 

 Couldn't play D&D unmasked but could party with 100 then 200 friends unmasked so go figure.

 Father in law wears KN95 but he's getting chemo. In laws only ones who dodged Covid in immediate circle.

 Everyone with kids we know got it, everyone we know who worked with people who had kids got it. 

 Via schools I suppose.


----------



## NotAYakk

Yes, it passes around in schools.  Around here, there is zero ability to send a kid to school without the child unmasking in a poorly ventilated room to eat with other people.

And there is no in school mask mandate, so it swirls around in the community of people with kids.

So they kid will catch covid-19.  And unless you go to extreme measures, you'll catch it from your own kids.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> Yes, it passes around in schools.  Around here, there is zero ability to send a kid to school without the child unmasking in a poorly ventilated room to eat with other people.
> 
> And there is no in school mask mandate, so it swirls around in the community of people with kids.
> 
> So they kid will catch covid-19.  And unless you go to extreme measures, you'll catch it from your own kids.



 Parents we knew all got sick first then it spread from there. 

 Can't really lockdown life for 2-3 years so go figure.


----------



## Mirtek

I was in touch with our family doctor and he told me that he would not give me the 4th shot because it's recommended to wait 6 month after a covid recovery. Since I want it anyway I'll just wait for the next vaccination bus to stop near by and get one there. They're still a thing and anyone can just show up wherever they stop without an appointment. I'll just wait until start of December then it'll be 4 month for me and that has to be long enough.

Some trivia: according to a representative study ordered by the government over 95% of all Germans show antibodies against Covid. Proving what everybody and his dog already knew: the official infection tracking has been dysfunktional for months. Relying on people voluntarily taking PCR tests after positive quick tests just doesn't cut it (and I am fully aware that I am a pot calling the kettle black, as my own was never registered for exactly that reason)


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> I was in touch with our family doctor and he told me that he would not give me the 4th shot because it's recommended to wait 6 month after a covid recovery. Since I want it anyway I'll just wait for the next vaccination bus to stop near by and get one there. They're still a thing and anyone can just show up wherever they stop without an appointment. I'll just wait until start of December then it'll be 4 month for me and that has to be long enough.
> 
> Some trivia: according to a representative study ordered by the government over 95% of all Germans show antibodies against Covid. Proving what everybody and his dog already knew: the official infection tracking has been dysfunktional for months. Relying on people voluntarily taking PCR tests after positive quick tests just doesn't cut it (and I am fully aware that I am a pot calling the kettle black, as my own was never registered for exactly that reason)




  I can't get my 4th shot until January. I'll probably just wait it out though. It's only 2 months. 

 Covid for Christmas in 3,2,1......


----------



## J.Quondam

I got my fourth about three weeks ago, along with flu shot. I had a light 12 hour "mini-flu"  from (I assume) the flu shot the next evening. Only other minor issue was that the site of the (very tiny and very adorable!) bivalent covid booster was pretty sore for about three days, then slightly itchy for another week or so. Overall, much easier for me than the previous vaxxes.


----------



## Thomas Shey

There's some range of disagreement about how big a gap you should have.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> There's some range of disagreement about how big a gap you should have.




The CDC currently recommends adults who are not immunocompromised get a bivalent booster two months after their last regular booster.  If you've caught covid in that time, waiting three months after your symptoms is recommended.

Your doctor may have other recommendations based on your own risk profile.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> The CDC currently recommends adults who are not immunocompromised get a bivalent booster two months after their last regular booster.  If you've caught covid in that time, waiting three months after your symptoms is recommended.
> 
> Your doctor may have other recommendations based on your own risk profile.




 Here it's 6 months if you've had Covid. 

 I could probably lie and go to one of these pop up places. 

  Not sure if that would work as I did report Covid positive status in the phone app so I assume it's on a government database somewhere.


----------



## CleverNickName

Elon Musk can't seem to stop shooting himself in the foot.








						Musk tells Twitter staff remote working will end
					

The boss of the social media firm also warns workers to prepare for "difficult times", reports say.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Umbran

CleverNickName said:


> Elon Musk can't seem to stop shooting himself in the foot.




Yeah, well, Mr. Musk has likely passed his own peak productivity.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Monoclonal antibodies and some other treatments (not the vaccines) are apparently much less effective vs Omicron and its subvariants.









						Once-favored Covid drugs ineffective on Omicron may be putting millions at risk
					

While antiviral pills are plentiful and remain an option for some with weak immune systems, they won’t work for everyone — Pfizer’s Paxlovid interacts with many widely prescribed drugs.




					www.yahoo.com
				




While it’s highly probable replacements could be discovered, the federal funding that helped lead to rapid development of these treatments has largely dried up.  Apparently, legislators are not interested in further expenditures.

The other treatments that exist, while cheaper and easier to administer, are far more likely to have interactions with other pharmaceuticals.


----------



## Zardnaar

Woke up new years eve sore throat. Covid test was negative feltvskight different and throat was swollen. 

 Was gonevby following day. Some of our mates got Covid Christmas Eve. Turns outvavfew got it from Christmas and New Years eve events. Felt like crap sobstayed home did nothing drunk no biozevjust 2-3 gallons of water.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> While it’s highly probable replacements could be discovered, the federal funding that helped lead to rapid development of these treatments has largely dried up.  Apparently, legislators are not interested in further expenditures.




And, as a matter of health policy, we can understand why.

In the US, over the past 8 days, about 300 people per day died of covid.
About 100 per day die in car accidents.
About 1700 per day die of cancer
About 2300 per day die of heart disease.

Covid is slipping into the same range as other causes of death in the US, and governmental response will be moderated by that.  

Doubly so, because if there's another really large surge, it is likely be due to yet another variant, against which the treatments we create today would likely be ineffective anyway.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Though I'm not sure that factors in some of the emerging data on the frequency of Long COVID problems.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> Though I'm not sure that factors in some of the emerging data on the frequency of Long COVID problems.




Yeah, but death in car accidents doesn't factor in _maiming_ in car accidents.  Death from cardiovascular issues doesn't count people who have massive brain damage from strokes, but survive, and so on.

I picked one metric to be demonstrative.  If you want to broaden out to others, then to keep it apples-to-apples, you have to do that for all the other causes of death.  I don't think the general picture changes much if you do that, though.


----------



## LuisCarlos17f

In the name of the prudence and good sense, the scientific and rational mind has to allow doubts. If we don't allow other to have a different opinion, then it can't be science. 

Maybe I have read too many conspirancy theories, but we shouldn't trust all said by the main media and pharmaceutic megacorporations. If there is a lot of money in this business, then you can't trust everybody going to say the complete truth.


----------



## Mannahnin

LuisCarlos17f said:


> In the name of the prudence and good sense, the scientific and rational mind has to allow doubts. If we don't allow other to have a different opinion, then it can't be science.
> 
> Maybe I have read too many conspirancy theories, but we shouldn't trust all said by the main media and pharmaceutic megacorporations. If there is a lot of money in this business, then you can't trust everybody going to say the complete truth.



In general, vaccines are not nearly as profitable as other things pharma companies make. This rationale for distrust is superficially plausible but not credible on closer look.


----------



## Bedrockgames

I just recovered from a case of Covid. I was vaccinated twice last year but didnt get the booster because I reacted pretty strongly to the vaccines. But I think I will get the booster this time around as it got pretty bad this time (didn't go to the hospital or anything but felt like I was getting a little too close to that level).


----------



## Bedrockgames

Mannahnin said:


> In general, vaccines are not nearly as profitable as other things pharma companies make. This rationale for distrust is superficially plausible but not credible on closer look.




I'm all for vaccines but very wary of pharmaceutical companies even when the drugs they are marketing are life saving because these are profit driven companies and it is the industry that pretty much caused the present opioid pandemic. So I think you can be critical, even cautious and wary of vaccines, without being deep into conspiracies or anti-vaccine.


----------



## Mannahnin

Bedrockgames said:


> I'm all for vaccines but very wary of pharmaceutical companies even when the drugs they are marketing are life saving because these are profit driven companies and it is the industry that pretty much caused the present opioid pandemic. So I think you can be critical, even cautious and wary of vaccines, without being deep into conspiracies or anti-vaccine.



Again, the profit explanation is implausible for vaccines.  They're not nearly as profitable as other drugs.


----------



## Umbran

LuisCarlos17f said:


> In the name of the prudence and good sense, the scientific and rational mind has to allow doubts. If we don't allow other to have a different opinion, then it can't be science.




Science says:  "You have an opinion?  Go get some data, and then we can talk."  Science is not interested in unsupported opinions.


----------



## Bedrockgames

Mannahnin said:


> Again, the profit explanation is implausible for vaccines.  They're not nearly as profitable as other drugs.




I don't know how much they make versus other types of drugs, and again I am not anti-vaccine, but the new york times reported that Pfizer had made 3.5 billion in the first three months of 2021 (in an article from that year), and the Guardian reported that they had made 37 Billion off it in a 2022 article (and even mentioned they were accused of profiteering off the illness). I think this is worth considering when a number of other companies chose not to make profit off the vaccines they produced.

Again, I am absolutely not anti-vaccine but you are talking about an industry that has regularly jacked up prices of drugs to boost profits (including stuff like inhalers and epipens). They've also at times taken drugs off the market that are life saving because they were not cost effective to produce. And it is an industry with a history of misleading the public, of buying politicians and of having an overly cozy relationship with the physicians who prescribe their medications. I believe in science and in modern medicine, as I am a beneficiary of modern medical treatments (I would not be alive without them). But we can be wary of an industry that is profit driven and has a shady history, even as they are making vaccines that help prevent severe cases of covid.


----------



## Umbran

Mannahnin said:


> Again, the profit explanation is implausible for vaccines.  They're not nearly as profitable as other drugs.




Um... don't tell Moderna that.  
In 2019, Moderna operated at a net loss of $512 million.
In 2020, Moderna has a net loss of $747 million
In 2021, Moderna has had a net _income_ of about $12 billion.

That said, there is a ton of data showing that their vaccines are safe and effective.  That income change is due to being able to come up with the right medicine at the right time when all 300 million of us needed it, without needing to lie, or even gouge on the price.


----------



## Mannahnin

Umbran said:


> Um... don't tell Moderna that.
> In 2019, Moderna operated at a net loss of $512 million.
> In 2020, Moderna has a net loss of $747 million
> In 2021, Moderna has had a net _income_ of about $12 billion.
> 
> That said, there is a ton of data showing that their vaccines are safe and effective.  That income change is due to being able to come up with the right medicine at the right time when all 300 million of us needed it, without needing to lie, or even gouge on the price.



The general rule is still accurate.    The fact that these particular vaccines had emergency funding to develop, produce, and distribute them as quickly as possible made them more profitable than is normally the case, and their sales base vastly larger.  The idea that they're created for profit and therefore suspect remains conspiritorial nonsense.


----------



## Umbran

Bedrockgames said:


> , but the new york times reported that they had made 3.5 billion in the first three months of 2021




Be specific.  Who is "they"?



Bedrockgames said:


> (in an article from that year), and the Guardian reported that they had made 37 Billion off it in a 2022 article (and even mentioned they were accused of profiteering off the illness). I think this is worth considering when a number of other companies chose not to make profit off the vaccines they produced.




So now it is an unspecified "they" vs unspecified "number of other companies".

Need we mention that there aren't many companies who got emergency use authorization for their vaccines?  They cannot "choose" to not make profit if they aren't legally allowed to offer their vaccine on the market.


----------



## Umbran

Mannahnin said:


> The idea that they're created for profit and therefore suspect remains conspiritorial nonsense.




I agree.  But, being clear about the fact that Moderna made a huge chunk of change off vaccines is important.

It is also important to note that they'd been working on the technology for a dozen years, generally at losses from the millions to tens or hundreds of millions, to have the technology available to do what they did for covid.  If we consider the net income of the company over that dozen years together, it is still a win, but not nearly so stunning.

If they were not allowed to make a profit now, those hundreds of millions to billions in net losses wouldn't get repaid.

We don't expect any individual here to do their professional work for nothing, so why do we expect companies to do so?


----------



## Ulorian - Agent of Chaos

Mannahnin said:


> Again, the profit explanation is implausible for vaccines.  They're not nearly as profitable as other drugs.



That's a pretty startling claim. Any evidence to back that up? I am not anti-vaccine... like at all! But to say there is no profit margin seems a bit off.









						Profitability of Large Pharmaceutical Companies Compared With Other Large Public Companies
					

How do the profits of large pharmaceutical companies compare with those of other companies from the S&P 500 Index?In this cross-sectional study that compared the profits of 35 large pharmaceutical companies with those of 357 large, nonpharmaceutical ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				









						Pharmaceutical companies reaping immoral profits from COVID vaccines yet paying low tax rates - Oxfam Canada
					

Thanks to their patent monopolies for successful vaccines against the coronavirus, development of which was supported by $100 billion in public funding from taxpayers in the US, Germany, and other countries, the three corporations earned more than $26 billion in revenue in the first half of the...




					www.oxfam.ca
				











						Pfizer accused of pandemic profiteering as profits double
					

Drugmaker makes $37bn in vaccine sales and predicts bumper year ahead from Covid jabs and pill




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Bedrockgames

Umbran said:


> Be specific.  Who is "they"?




It was Pfizer (I had intended to write it but posted too quickly, edited my post to make the change)



Umbran said:


> So now it is an unspecified "they" vs unspecified "number of other companies".





Again, appologies, that was Pfizer. 



Umbran said:


> Need we mention that there aren't many companies who got emergency use authorization for their vaccines?  They cannot "choose" to not make profit if they aren't legally allowed to offer their vaccine on the market.




Maybe I have this detail wrong, my memory of the reporting at the time was pfizer had decided to make profit and a number other companies didn't. But I wasn't saying that Pfizer was exclusively making profit. If that is incorrect, fair enough. But my point was less about praising the companies that didn't make profit, and more about being wary of the ones that did make profit (which given the industry we are talking about I think is a very reasonable stance to take). And again, I am not anti-vaccine. I just understand why people might be less than trusting of pharmaceutical companies.


----------



## Mannahnin

Ulorian - Agent of Chaos said:


> That's a pretty startling claim. Any evidence to back that up? I am not anti-vaccine... like at all! But to say there is no profit margin seems a bit off.



Again, my statement was "generally".  The pandemic has changed the math for Covid vaccines specifically, because of the extreme unusual circumstance.

The fact that vaccines are less profitable than other drugs was so well known before the pandemic that it was functionally a truism.  Governments had to step in to incentivize their production because too many manufacturers were quitting making them.



			https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.24.3.622


----------



## Bedrockgames

Umbran said:


> It is also important to note that they'd been working on the technology for a dozen years, generally at losses from the millions to tens or hundreds of millions, to have the technology available to do what they did for covid.  If we consider the net income of the company over that dozen years together, it is still a win, but not nearly so stunning.
> 
> If they were not allowed to make a profit now, those hundreds of millions to billions in net losses wouldn't get repaid.
> 
> We don't expect any individual here to do their professional work for nothing, so why do we expect companies to do so?




My problem with this justification is pharmaceutical companies use it all the time to justify exorbitant price tags on life saving medication (and I think is very questionable how much of that is actually justified). And this isn't conspiratorial nonsense. This is a kind of criticism you hear on mainstream platforms like NPR. Just as an example there is a cure for Hepatitis C, which is amazing. I'm not anti-medication or anti-science. If we can cure an illness like that, that is a good thing. It is something we want to cure. But it like 80,000 dollars for the 12 week treatment (which was 95% effective). I think they have managed to find ways to bring that costs down, but I believe a lot of that is just shifting costs (pretty sure the manufacturer ultimately gets its 80,000). I get there is research cost, but I am very uncomfortable with the idea that we should not push back against companies charging these kinds of rates for curing serious diseases, and that we shouldn't be skeptical of a powerful industry that historically has profited off things like getting people to take unnecessary painkillers (and even lied about how safe and addictive those painkillers are). I've personally seen medications I've been on get suddenly jacked up in price by these kinds of companies and I don't think that is right. There was a congressional report issued a few years ago that addressed a lot of these issues with things like price hikes and a practice called price hopping (where they make minor tweaks to an old formula to get new patents so they can keep prices high). Again, not saying people shouldn't take medications, vaccines, etc. But think there are a ton of reasons to not trust these companies or take what they say at face value.


----------



## Bedrockgames

Mannahnin said:


> Again, my statement was "generally".  The pandemic has changed the math for Covid vaccines specifically, because of the extreme unusual circumstance.
> 
> The fact that vaccines are less profitable than other drugs was so well known before the pandemic that it was functionally a truism.  Governments had to step in to incentivize their production because too many manufacturers were quitting making them.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.24.3.622




And I've heard this about vaccines in general but I don't know that it is true with the Covid Vaccines. It is possible I have not seeing stories to the contrary that are out there but most of the reporting I have encountered looks like this. It looks like they did pretty well, and while the demand is changing, and I'm sure eventually it will level out and be like other vaccines, it also seems like Pfizer at least is adapting by quadrupling prices to maintain profits when they shift away from selling directly to the government.


----------



## Mannahnin

Bedrockgames said:


> And I've heard this about vaccines in general but I don't know that it is true with the Covid Vaccines. It is possible I have not seeing stories to the contrary that are out there but most of the reporting I have encountered looks like this. It looks like they did pretty well, and while the demand is changing, and I'm sure eventually it will level out and be like other vaccines, it also seems like Pfizer at least is adapting by quadrupling prices to maintain profits when they shift away from selling directly to the government.



The fact that the Covid vaccines are an aberration belies the premise that pharmaceutical producers are not to be trusted simply because of the profit motive.  The profit motive has been much less of a factor for vaccines in the past, and it's not like Big Pharma created Covid.

Antivaxxers have been using the "but profits!" line about vaccines for many years despite its disconnection from reality prior to Covid.


----------



## Bedrockgames

Mannahnin said:


> The fact that the Covid vaccines are an aberration belies the premise that pharmaceutical producers are not to be trusted simply because of the profit motive.  The profit motive has been much less of a factor for vaccines in the past, and it's not like Big Pharma created Covid.




I think if they are making large profits off this particular vaccine, being wary of their profit motive is fair (and it isn't like there aren't reasonable people out there accusing them of profiteering of a horrible pandemic). And I never said it was anything nefarious like them creating covid. I am just saying these are all companies with a lot of power, a lot of political clout, who have done harm to patients by jacking up prices for drugs, obfuscating the dangers of drugs, and encouraging doctors to overprescribe medication: because of the profit motive. I am not saying every crazy theory about pharmaceutical companies is true. I am saying people not trusting them fully makes a lot of sense when you consider all these details.


----------



## Umbran

Ulorian - Agent of Chaos said:


> But to say there is no profit margin seems a bit off.




I think this was unintentional, but let us be 100% clear - they didn't say "there is no profit margin".  

Those are your words, not theirs.  You then argue against your representation of his position, rather than what was actually said, creating a strawman.

This is exceedingly common on the internet, and tends to drive discussion to poles - you have effectively eradicated nuance from the other person's position by using absolute terms.

Please, folks, let's try harder to avoid that.  Thanks.


----------



## Zardnaar

Aren't the vaccines comparatively cheap to even basic things like insulin in the USA? I don't recall the individual price of the vaccines. Gonna hopefully get my second booster in a week or two as it's been 6 months since I caught Covid.

 No idea what Pharmac paid per unit.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Aren't the vaccines comparatively cheap to even basic things like insulin in the USA?




Well, insured or not, at the moment there is no direct cost for covid vaccines here.  The government foots the bill.

The US government has paid an average of about $20/dose for Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.  Pfizer's vaccine reportedly costs about $1.20 per dose to produce, not counting the research beforehand, which is still relevant.

In the US, retail insulin costs $175 to $300 per vial, and most diabetic patients need two or three vials per month.  That insulin costs less than $10/vial to make.  The research on how to make it is far in the past, and should not be part of current pricing.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Well, insured or not, at the moment there is no direct cost for covid vaccines here.  The government foots the bill.
> 
> The US government has paid an average of about $20/dose for Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.  Pfizer's vaccine reportedly costs about $1.20 per dose to produce, not counting the research beforehand, which is still relevant.
> 
> In the US, retail insulin costs $175 to $300 per vial, and most diabetic patients need two or three vials per month.  That insulin costs less than $10/vial to make.  The research on how to make it is far in the past, and should not be part of current pricing.



Not only that, but the original patents for the production of insulin was "sold" to the University of Toronto for the princely sum of $1.00 for each of the researchers, as Banting, Best, and Collip didn't want to profit from the misery of others. Clearly, their example was not followed.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Well, insured or not, at the moment there is no direct cost for covid vaccines here.  The government foots the bill.
> 
> The US government has paid an average of about $20/dose for Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.  Pfizer's vaccine reportedly costs about $1.20 per dose to produce, not counting the research beforehand, which is still relevant.
> 
> In the US, retail insulin costs $175 to $300 per vial, and most diabetic patients need two or three vials per month.  That insulin costs less than $10/vial to make.  The research on how to make it is far in the past, and should not be part of current pricing.




 Hell at that price I wouldn't be arguing to hard about cost of vaccine. Cost to manufacture is only a small cost of pretty much anything. 

 One night in hospital is gonna pay for a whole lotta vaccine doses. Vaccines free here along with Covid related prescriptions. They're normally only $3 anyway but I think the doctor fee got waived as well and steroids were free. 

 US healthcare has its issues it seems vaccine cost/profit isn't one of them.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Hell at that price I wouldn't be arguing to hard about cost of vaccine. Cost to manufacture is only a small cost of pretty much anything.



I don’t recall if I mentioned it in this thread or not, but at one point in my life, I had the opportunity to read a pharmaceutical company’s  report on the actual costs it took to get a particular prescription drug to market.

The most disturbing item on that report (to me) was the advertising/promotions budget.  It was fully half of the costs.

Now, I have no problem with a company advertising it’s product.  It’s practically required.  But this wasn’t just ads directly mailed to MDs and free samples (and tchotchkes) being given to potential prescribers.  This included TV spots, radio buys, and ads in regular magazines.

IMHO, there should NEVER be advertising of _prescription only_ medications in general mass media.  Especially not in the amounts described in that report.  It makes Dr/patient discussions much more difficult.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Yeah, but death in car accidents doesn't factor in _maiming_ in car accidents.  Death from cardiovascular issues doesn't count people who have massive brain damage from strokes, but survive, and so on.
> 
> I picked one metric to be demonstrative.  If you want to broaden out to others, then to keep it apples-to-apples, you have to do that for all the other causes of death.  I don't think the general picture changes much if you do that, though.




I'm just suggesting that, in general, death should not be the only metric in how worthwhile addressing a health problem is.  I'm not even sold its the most important one.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I don’t recall if I mentioned it in this thread or not, but at one point in my life, I had the opportunity to read a pharmaceutical company’s  report on the actual costs it took to get a particular prescription drug to market.
> 
> The most disturbing item on that report (to me) was the advertising/promotions budget.  It was fully half of the costs.
> 
> Now, I have no problem with a company advertising it’s product.  It’s practically required.  But this wasn’t just ads directly mailed to MDs and free samples (and tchotchkes) being given to potential prescribers.  This included TV spots, radio buys, and ads in regular magazines.
> 
> IMHO, there should NEVER be advertising of _prescription only_ medications in general mass media.  Especially not in the amounts described in that report.  It makes Dr/patient discussions much more difficult.




 I think USA and NZ are the only places it's legal to advertise drugs. Here it's mostly mitigated by Pharmacy so your options are mostly what's available. 

  Cost of production is peanuts though. Mum was funny as she struggled with $5 milkshakes when the cost to make one was 50 cents.

 That applies to most things I used to be able to aquire stuff at cost which was usually around 10% of retail. Freight, wages, rent on stores etc ads up. Or advertising in your context.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> I'm just suggesting that, in general, death should not be the only metric in how worthwhile addressing a health problem is.




Well, again, this was to be demonstrative, not a full-on suggestion of how to make policy.  If you check other metrics, and I don't expect it'll change the situation.



Thomas Shey said:


> I'm not even sold its the most important one.




You tell the covid orphans that.  I'm not gonna.


----------



## Ryujin

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I don’t recall if I mentioned it in this thread or not, but at one point in my life, I had the opportunity to read a pharmaceutical company’s  report on the actual costs it took to get a particular prescription drug to market.
> 
> The most disturbing item on that report (to me) was the advertising/promotions budget.  It was fully half of the costs.
> 
> Now, I have no problem with a company advertising it’s product.  It’s practically required.  But this wasn’t just ads directly mailed to MDs and free samples (and tchotchkes) being given to potential prescribers.  This included TV spots, radio buys, and ads in regular magazines.
> 
> IMHO, there should NEVER be advertising of _prescription only_ medications in general mass media.  Especially not in the amounts described in that report.  It makes Dr/patient discussions much more difficult.



As it is every patient with access to Google already thinks they're an expert. I roll my eyes every time I see an ad, on American TV, stating that side effects include possibility of bloating, diarrhea, and death.

_EDIT_ - And, somewhat ironically, one of the cancer meds that's regularly advertised on CNN hit my mother with literally every side effect including, very nearly, a much earlier death.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Dannyalcatraz said:


> IMHO, there should NEVER be advertising of _prescription only_ medications in general mass media.  Especially not in the amounts described in that report.  It makes Dr/patient discussions much more difficult.




It didn't use to be.  I've seen different dates claimed in different sources, but it wasn't legal between 1938 and 1987 for sure, and you can argue it wasn't fully so until 1993.  The problem is that it ended up being entangled in the push for patients to have the right to informed decisions as to drug choices.  That said, I've seen claims that the only place the sort of free-for-all advertising you see in this area is the U.S. and New Zealand.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> Well, again, this was to be demonstrative, not a full-on suggestion of how to make policy.  If you check other metrics, and I don't expect it'll change the situation.




I would not bet on that if you did proportions, but I'm not sure the data exists in any easily accessible form.



Umbran said:


> You tell the covid orphans that.  I'm not gonna.




I'll let the people who have to take care of those crippled by Long COVID for the rest of their lives, instead.  I bet they could make a more compelling case than I could.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Ryujin said:


> _EDIT_ - And, somewhat ironically, one of the cancer meds that's regularly advertised on CNN hit my mother with literally every side effect including, very nearly, a much earlier death.




The great sad truth is, even with careful regulation, almost any drug that does anything useful is going to have some sometimes pretty severe side effects for some percentage of users, and as the user numbers get larger, that part of the users becomes intrinsically more visible.  The question always turns on risk to benefit with drugs.  Always.


----------



## JEB

Despite taking great care to avoid it, and being in the minority of folks who got the bivalent booster, came down with Covid Christmas week. (Very likely infected by a co-worker; all the other options are improbable.) Narrowly avoided giving it to my family, as I was hanging out with them when my symptoms started flaring up. Didn't stop shedding virus in time for New Year's, either, so missed both holidays.

Worth noting: having the bivalent booster almost certainly made me less infectious (it's hard to believe I didn't give it to my family, but I didn't) and almost certainly made my symptoms relatively mild (my brother had a worse time of it last summer, after his original vaccine had lost effectiveness and before the new booster was available). So if you haven't gotten the bivalent booster, I strongly recommend it.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> I'll let the people who have to take care of those crippled by Long COVID for the rest of their lives, instead.  I bet they could make a more compelling case than I could.




I think folks caring for the disabled are apt to have more empathy than to try to one-up an orphan to their face.


----------



## LuisCarlos17f

Umbran said:


> Science says:  "You have an opinion?  Go get some data, and then we can talk."  Science is not interested in unsupported opinions.



And the data says the big pharma companies have got some cases of negligence. 

You can search in internet about lawsuits against the big pharma companies. Let's remember the damage caused by the thalidomide in pregnant women. 

Any time have you could guess the end watching a movie or teleserie thanks the clues in the script? I dare to say there are reasons to suspect they aren't telling the truth. If here there is a lot of money being moved then you can't hope everybody is not going to be honest. 






						Ongoing EPPO investigation into the acquisition of COVID-19 vaccines in the EU | European Public Prosecutor’s Office
					






					www.eppo.europa.eu


----------



## NotAYakk

Bedrockgames said:


> My problem with this justification is pharmaceutical companies use it all the time to justify exorbitant price tags on life saving medication (and I think is very questionable how much of that is actually justified). And this isn't conspiratorial nonsense. This is a kind of criticism you hear on mainstream platforms like NPR. Just as an example there is a cure for Hepatitis C, which is amazing. I'm not anti-medication or anti-science. If we can cure an illness like that, that is a good thing. It is something we want to cure. But it like 80,000 dollars for the 12 week treatment (which was 95% effective). I think they have managed to find ways to bring that costs down, but I believe a lot of that is just shifting costs (pretty sure the manufacturer ultimately gets its 80,000). I get there is research cost, but I am very uncomfortable with the idea that we should not push back against companies charging these kinds of rates for curing serious diseases, and that we shouldn't be skeptical of a powerful industry that historically has profited off things like getting people to take unnecessary painkillers (and even lied about how safe and addictive those painkillers are). I've personally seen medications I've been on get suddenly jacked up in price by these kinds of companies and I don't think that is right. There was a congressional report issued a few years ago that addressed a lot of these issues with things like price hikes and a practice called price hopping (where they make minor tweaks to an old formula to get new patents so they can keep prices high). Again, not saying people shouldn't take medications, vaccines, etc. But think there are a ton of reasons to not trust these companies or take what they say at face value.



So, US patent law means that after 12 years, the first treatment _must be able to be made by a generic company_ without IP blocks.

The companies will try to improve their treatment and get extended patent protection, but it only covers the improvements.

As an example, the old-school insulin has no patent protections; the fancier new insulins (which are much better) do.

...

Now, the monopolization of production is a different problem.  Lots of the bad press comes from that -- only one producer of X, so they jack the price of X up to increase profits.

There isn't a legal protection around the production of X, but if only one company currently makes it, it is really easy to pull this off.

What more, it is insanely more efficient to have one factory to make many of these medicines - the economies of scale are in favour of monopoly.  There are natural monopolies all over the place here.


----------



## Umbran

LuisCarlos17f said:


> And the data says the big pharma companies have got some cases of negligence.




So, with respect, I think you are arguing against a thing that none of us are doing - none of us are putting _blind faith_ in pharma companies.  So, you can stop trying to convince us we shouldn't.

We are merely noting that vaccines are not generally a place where they make their big bucks.

And, if you want to instill anxiety about vaccines, this is an important point - your negligence argument doesn't really hold for covid vaccines.  They are too widespread, too visible, and here, the customer so far is the US Government itself.   

Successful Business 101:  Do not be negligent with the US Government when the best way to politically handle it would be to sic the Justice Department on you.



LuisCarlos17f said:


> I dare to say there are reasons to suspect they aren't telling the truth.




ABOUT WHAT???  If you have a _specific_ accusation to make, make it.

Otherwise, please stop with the fearmongering.  It does not help people make sound decisions about their health.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> IMHO, there should NEVER be advertising of _prescription only_ medications in general mass media.  Especially not in the amounts described in that report.  It makes Dr/patient discussions much more difficult.




So, if the rest of the health care system were up to snuff, I'd agree with you.  Unfortunately, our system makes patients, especially women and minorities, have to be driven self-advocates for their own care, because the system fails them if they don't.

You cannot successfully self-advocate if you don't know what treatments are available.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Umbran said:


> So, if the rest of the health care system were up to snuff, I'd agree with you.  Unfortunately, our system makes patients, especially women and minorities, have to be driven self-advocates for their own care, because the system fails them if they don't.
> 
> You cannot successfully self-advocate if you don't know what treatments are available.



The ads DON’T improve overall self-advocacy; they provide the _illusion_ of it.  (IMHO, of course.)

Even without knowing the names of this drug, treatment or pharmaceutical, you are always free to ask *“What other options are there?”  *Or to seek a second opinion.  Telling your MD your concerns about side-effects or lack of efficacy are also key in the doctor/patient relationship, and doesn’t require naming brands.

(A HCP might not LISTEN to a patient’s reports & complaints.  But if that’s true, they probably won’t listen to suggestions for alternative treatments, either.)

The ads, OTOH, get people seeking advice already armed with this or that name brand drug or particular therapy that at not even be relevant.  Even before the hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin debacles during COVID, MD’s complained about people demanding antibiotics for things like colds & flu, sometimes to the point of threatening to leave the practice if they didn’t get the prescription asked for.  A lot of MDs handed out the prescriptions on the theory that it wouldn’t hurt the patients (probably) and would let them continue to engage & properly treat the patients after the antibiotics proved ineffective.

Unfortunately, this led to the unfortunate societal side-effect of overprescribing antibiotics, which reduced their overall effectiveness and contributed to the rise of antibiotic-resistant pathogens.  So under current guidelines for antibiotics, that practice has been greatly reduced so that sometimes patients get refused certain antibiotics _even if they’re effective for a patient’s affliction_, if the affliction is minor but chronic.

(I’m one taking it for Team Humanity.)


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> I think folks caring for the disabled are apt to have more empathy than to try to one-up an orphan to their face.




On the other hand they're also the people liable to think stopping at "Well, its not killing as many people" is a fundamental error, which was my original point.  Death tolls aren't the whole story, and its still remaining to be seen if its even the _biggest_ story.


----------



## Umbran

Thomas Shey said:


> On the other hand they're also the people liable to think stopping at "Well, its not killing as many people" is a fundamental error...




And to that I say _AGAIN_ that it was intended to be demonstrative, not an actual basis of policy.

I mean, that is if what I say actually matters at this point - I'm not sure it does.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Even without knowing the names of this drug, treatment or pharmaceutical, you are always free to ask *“What other options are there?” *Or to seek a second opinion.




You may be "free to ask", but asking isn't exactly free.

If you ask your GP, and they are discounting your experience, they may not give you a useful answer.  If you want a second opinion, you need to seek out a new GP, and usually have a whole appointment related to intake of a new patient, and then schedule a second appointment just to talk about your actual problem.  

Maybe a specialist?  Well, they have to actually be somewhere near you, and if they are, you probably need a referral, and your insurance has to be on board with it.  Oh, and once you convince your GP to give you that, you may need to wait _months_ for the specialist to have an opening, if they are even open to new patients at all.  And each appointment is a day off work that you may not be getting paid for, that you need to arrange childcare for, etc. 

And that's just the traditional issues.  Currently, the healthcare system it critically understaffed, so all those loops tend to take even longer.   

Having the understanding that there _are_ treatments, and the names of some of them, when you walk in the door can matter a great deal.  At least, that's been my wife's lived experience.  And she is far more knowledgeable about medicine than the average Joe on the street.  YMMV.

In a better world, with a non-borked healthcare system, patients could walk into the doctor ignorant, and still get the best care.  But, that's not really the case now.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> You may be "free to ask", but asking isn't exactly free.
> 
> If you ask your GP, and they are discounting your experience, they may not give you a useful answer.  If you want a second opinion, you need to seek out a new GP, and usually have a whole appointment related to intake of a new patient, and then schedule a second appointment just to talk about your actual problem.
> 
> Maybe a specialist?  Well, they have to actually be somewhere near you, and if they are, you probably need a referral, and your insurance has to be on board with it.  Oh, and once you convince your GP to give you that, you may need to wait _months_ for the specialist to have an opening, if they are even open to new patients at all.  And each appointment is a day off work that you may not be getting paid for, that you need to arrange childcare for, etc.
> 
> And that's just the traditional issues.  Currently, the healthcare system it critically understaffed, so all those loops tend to take even longer.
> 
> Having the understanding that there _are_ treatments, and the names of some of them, when you walk in the door can matter a great deal.  At least, that's been my wife's lived experience.  And she is far more knowledgeable about medicine than the average Joe on the street.  YMMV.
> 
> In a better world, with a non-borked healthcare system, patients could walk into the doctor ignorant, and still get the best care.  But, that's not really the case now.




 That's pretty much what I do just walk in the door and take whatever the doctor prescribes. If I don't like the side effects I'll stop taking stuff (had this with painkillers the pain was better than the side effects). 

 We didn't have any choices on vaccines early it was Pfizer that's it. Doctors aren't god they generally use a checklist if mist common symptoms and go from there afaik. 

 Can't sue then for negligence here. Prescriptions are $3 or you can't get some drugs I suppose. 

 One big difference here I noticed was no opiod epidemic. The painkillers Americans can get prescribed for fairly minor things you can only get here as a terminal cancer patient or something similar. You can't really request the good stuff (well you can the default answer is no).


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Can't sue then for negligence here. Prescriptions are $3 or you can't get some drugs I suppose.




Yeah.  Meanwhile, here, there are some migraine treatments that are like $24,000 per year.  

For the right kind of patient, those treatments are like magic!  But folks frequently (usually?) need a combination of good insurance and a copay plan from the manufacturer to make it happen.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Yeah.  Meanwhile, here, there are some migraine treatments that are like $24,000 per year.
> 
> For the right kind of patient, those treatments are like magic!  But folks frequently (usually?) need a combination of good insurance and a copay plan from the manufacturer to make it happen.




 Idk if that medication at 24k is even available here. One can always fly to America and pay retail I suppose. 

 Unofficially if it costs more than XYZ it's unavailable I can't recall the exact amount. It's usually experimental drugs and niche type conditions.


----------



## Thomas Shey

Umbran said:


> And to that I say _AGAIN_ that it was intended to be demonstrative, not an actual basis of policy.
> 
> I mean, that is if what I say actually matters at this point - I'm not sure it does.




Well, apparently what_ I _say doesn't, so I'd say we're even there.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Idk if that medication at 24k is even available here. One can always fly to America and pay retail I suppose.
> 
> Unofficially if it costs more than XYZ it's unavailable I can't recall the exact amount. It's usually experimental drugs and niche type conditions.




This is for chronic migraine, which is suffered by about 3% to 5% of the population.  

You probably have a different framework for defining cost of drugs.  In this case, in the US, if you have insurance, it will typically pick up half the cost.  Then, the copay program picks up the rest, but only if you have insurance to start with.

I do not know how the copay program is funded, if, indeed, it is "funded", as it comes from the manufacturer.  It may effectively be that they collect $12K/year from the insurance company, and write off the patient's portion.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> This is for chronic migraine, which is suffered by about 3% to 5% of the population.
> 
> You probably have a different framework for defining cost of drugs.  In this case, in the US, if you have insurance, it will typically pick up half the cost.  Then, the copay program picks up the rest, but only if you have insurance to start with.
> 
> I do not know how the copay program is funded, if, indeed, it is "funded", as it comes from the manufacturer.  It may effectively be that they collect $12K/year from the insurance company, and write off the patient's portion.




 In not sure exactly on how things work over there just that it's expensive. 

 American expats here do like being able to have kids here due to cost. I know it costs the US government/taxpayer more both up front and long term. 

 They're more into ambulance at top of cliff. They used to have health camps for kids which was kind of like an American summer camp but it involved dieting and exercising. 

 It's not perfect lots of complaining about various things, shortage of doctors, nurses etc. 

Mates father is American (kiwi mum)he had to get cancer treatment here and didn't qualify for free healthcare. Cost him $8000 NZD ($4-5k USD). 

 Mum's cancer treatment they paid her (for travel costs and accomodation) and Father in Law is getting chemo atm. Can't complain about that but if I broke my arm might be in ED for up to 12 hours waiting no painkillers.


----------



## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Yeah.  Meanwhile, here, there are some migraine treatments that are like $24,000 per year.



I have only had 1 migraine in my life but based on that experience I can see why people could be induced to pay that.


----------



## Mannahnin

Zardnaar said:


> One big difference here I noticed was no opiod epidemic. The painkillers Americans can get prescribed for fairly minor things you can only get here as a terminal cancer patient or something similar. You can't really request the good stuff (well you can the default answer is no).



Americans haven't been able to get opioids for minor stuff in years.  The roots of the opioid epidemic are in the '90s, more than two decades ago.  Manufacturers pushed overprescribing and misled healthcare providers as to how addictive newer ones were.  

Currently providers have overcorrected to not wanting to give out opioids even when they're very much needed, which is part of what's fueled heroin and now fentanyl problems.  People resort to illegal stuff because the legal painkillers are now much harder to get.


----------



## HaroldTheHobbit

Me and my wife just got our fourth shot, in preparation for rising case numbers here in Sweden and what may pop out from the current China situation.


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## Umbran

Garthanos said:


> I have only had 1 migraine in my life but based on that experience I can see why people could be induced to pay that.




Their saving grace being that they apparently _work_.  Same-day relief that lasts for months.  Freakin' magic.


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## Garthanos

Umbran said:


> Their saving grace being that they apparently _work_.  Same-day relief that lasts for months.  Freakin' magic.



Considering how little seems known for certain about migraines that is crazy good. Now can they find something like that for fibromyalgia?


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## Thomas Shey

Garthanos said:


> Considering how little seems known for certain about migraines that is crazy good. Now can they find something like that for fibromyalgia?




It would help if they had any consistent model of what _causes_ it.


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## Dannyalcatraz

It’s possible that- like the common cold- fibromyalgia is a syndrome, not a single disease.  If so, multiple causes could make finding solutions EXTREMELY difficult.


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