# The Logic of Panic Buying



## Zardnaar (Apr 7, 2020)

As the title says.

Put simply I'm a cynic. While some people believe in ideals I lean more towards humanity being highly evolved monkeys with nukes and  cell phones. Monkeys seem to be less self destructive however so they might be smarter than us.

Panic buying IMHO is due to 2 things.

1. Fear of missing out or FOMO.
2. Trying to control something. You can't do much individually about Covid 19 but you can buy toilet paper.

However there will be genuine shortages. The best example of this is hand sanitizer. Even without panic buying  theres not enough of it in the world.

Even if you could buy it that just means someone else in a poorer country is going without.

  However there is a sane amount of panic buying. For example if you get sick even non Covid ideally you self isolate for 14 days. Who had 14 days worth of food? If you have two people in your household what happens if you get sick two weeks apart? Do you have a months food? What if you want to self isolate for two months?

You don't need a years supply of toilet paper but due to disruptions things are going to get hard to get. Here that's flour, we have plenty the Mills are operating, storehouses are 90% full. Freight is still running.

But we're out of packaging and resupply is 6 weeks away. The flours there, we can't buy it or at least the supermarket was out. They only have 20kg bags and they're being shipped to the bakery.

Another silly example is they banned plastic supermarket bags a few years ago. Reusable cloth bags are the way forward. Well can't buy them any more either and some supermarkets have banned them as well.

Well foods still going to be produced? Here and in the US it's starting to rot in the ground as they can't harvest it. Even if they could the smaller stores and restaurants that buy it are closed. In a few weeks people might not have the money to buy it even if it was available to buy.

It's harvest time for late autumn crops such as apples. Due to lockdown the tourists who work part time can't harvest them.

Those people who bought canned apples might not be stupid.

IDK where the line is between stupid panic buying and sane stocking up lies. We started a week or so the panic buying started. Since then we have been going in late at night often on Monday or Tuesday buying whatever's left.

I'm not fussy, I don't mind eating oats. I don't need a kale and quinoa infused soy latte with organic vanilla sprinkles on top. In the 1980s as a kid coffee choices were black or white with or without suger. I wasn't allowed coffee that often and didn't have McDonalds until 1991 age 12, Pizza Hutt 1996 aged 18.

So no FOMO here I'm expecting some things I like will disappear. Just going to go get some recipes for sausages via phone off my wives grandmother cya.


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## tommybahama (Apr 8, 2020)

Zardnaar said:


> Another silly example is they banned plastic supermarket bags a few years ago. Reusable cloth bags are the way forward. Well can't buy them any more either and some supermarkets have banned them as well.




Who is "they" Kemosabe?  In California which started this stupid idea it was done by the government at the behest of environmentalists that refused to recognize the public health implications of their unnecessary and counterproductive legislation that did the opposite of what they believed.  But it made them feel good!

An Interesting story I listened to about the toilet paper shortage.  In normal circumstances 40% of your TP use is away from home using commercial TP.   So there is an abundance of commercial TP available since nobody is going out but they lack the distribution network and packaging for retail sales.  And then there's the problem of the commercial rolls being too big for your home dispensers.

I wonder if there are tons of hand sanitizer available in bulk sizes at janitorial supply companies?


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## Zardnaar (Apr 8, 2020)

tommybahama said:


> Who is "they" Kemosabe?  In California which started this stupid idea it was done by the government at the behest of environmentalists that refused to recognize the public health implications of their unnecessary and counterproductive legislation that did the opposite of what they believed.  But it made them feel good!
> 
> An Interesting story I listened to about the toilet paper shortage.  In normal circumstances 40% of your TP use is away from home using commercial TP.   So there is an abundance of commercial TP available since nobody is going out but they lack the distribution network and packaging for retail sales.  And then there's the problem of the commercial rolls being too big for your home dispensers.
> 
> I wonder if there are tons of hand sanitizer available in bulk sizes at janitorial supply companies?




 Probably not hand sanitizer is going to be hard to get at least the nice Aloe very ones.

 I'm not saying getting rid of plastic bags was stupid but now we're in a stupid situation where they don't have any alternatives. 

 They've already cancelled recycling it's all being dumped as the recycling jobs count as non essential. Landfill it is.


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## ccs (Apr 8, 2020)

Zardnaar said:


> You don't need a years supply of toilet paper but due to disruptions things are going to get hard to get.




I disagree.
I shop for TP (and other similar products - paper towels, paper plates, soaps, trash bags, etc, even cat litter) once a year.  About mid-January (once the Christmas bills are paid off).  I know how much I use in a year.  And then I buy 13 months worth - just in case something goes awry.
Mostly because I hate continuously shopping for this stuff. 
I'm fortunate that I can 1) afford to shop like this, 2) have the space to store it.

And yes, I've typically got two months worth of food.  

This has proven very handy in the current situation.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 8, 2020)

ccs said:


> I disagree.
> I shop for TP (and other similar products - paper towels, paper plates, soaps, trash bags, etc, even cat litter) once a year.  About mid-January (once the Christmas bills are paid off).  I know how much I use in a year.  And then I buy 13 months worth - just in case something goes awry.
> Mostly because I hate continuously shopping for this stuff.
> I'm fortunate that I can 1) afford to shop like this, 2) have the space to store it.
> ...




 There's always someone.


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## Dannyalcatraz (Apr 8, 2020)

The hand sanitizers shortage is nearly purely irrational.  There plenty for its intended purposes if people weren’t hoarding.

Because it isn’t intended as a superior alternative to soap.  In most cases- including current circumstances- soap & water does a better job than sanitizer.





						Show Me the Science – When & How to Use Hand Sanitizer in Community Settings  | Handwashing | CDC
					

Information about handwashing and hand hygiene




					www.cdc.gov
				




Sanitizer is a product of convenience, intended for use when you don’t have access to water, or when conservation of water & time is needed.

With so many people stuck at home, soap & water is what they SHOULD be using, not the gallons of Purell they just swept off the shelves,


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## Zardnaar (Apr 8, 2020)

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The hand sanitizers shortage is nearly purely irrational.  There plenty for its intended purposes if people weren’t hoarding.
> 
> Because it isn’t intended as a superior alternative to soap.  In most cases- including current circumstances- soap & water does a better job than sanitizer.
> 
> ...




 We've bare used ours. We've been using foamy soap, got some liquid soap last night and have 9 bars of oat soap. 

 The jumbo size hand moisturizers are great. 

 Anecdote years ago I worked at McDonalds.  Every 15 minutes we had to sanitize the hands. 

 No horror stories from that location.


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## Dannyalcatraz (Apr 8, 2020)

We go through about one 2L pump bottle per year.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 8, 2020)

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We go through about one 2L pump bottle per year.




 I posted a link few days ago.

 If everyone had a 500ml bottle the world can produce 1/1000 if what's needed.

 2 litre bottle is 1/4000

So basically the supermarkets won't be able to restock.


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## ccs (Apr 8, 2020)

Zardnaar said:


> There's always someone.




Yeah, but I'm the guy with the TP who's not worried about going hungry.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 8, 2020)

ccs said:


> Yeah, but I'm the guy with the TP who's not worried about going hungry.




 Good to be you. Nice fat target. Mmmnn getting hungary. 

 Wanna play D&D at yours


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## Dannyalcatraz (Apr 8, 2020)

Zardnaar said:


> I posted a link few days ago.
> 
> If everyone had a 500ml bottle the world can produce 1/1000 if what's needed.
> 
> ...



The point is, since most people are stuck at home, odds are good _they don‘t need the sanitizer at all.  _They should be using soap & water- the superior tool for the job- instead.

The people who NEED it are the first responders and healthcare workers, and those  “essential personnel” without easy access to soap & water.  If they & their employers were the only buyers, there wouldn’t be a shortage,

When I said we go through @2L a year, that’s mostly because of houseguests.  I haven’t used any of ours in years, except when the water was turned off during a plumbing repair.  I haven’t seen anyone else in the family use it either.  IOW, we buy it mainly as a convenience for others, not for our personal use.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 8, 2020)

Dannyalcatraz said:


> The point is, since most people are stuck at home, odds are good _they don‘t need the sanitizer at all.  _They should be using soap & water- the superior tool for the job- instead.
> 
> The people who NEED it are the first responders and healthcare workers, and those  “essential personnel” without easy access to soap & water.  If they & their employers were the only buyers, there wouldn’t be a shortage,
> 
> When I said we go through @2L a year, that’s mostly because of houseguests.  I haven’t used any of ours in years, except when the water was turned off during a plumbing repair.  I haven’t seen anyone else in the family use it either.  IOW, we buy it mainly as a convenience for others, not for our personal use.




 Well it's not going to the supermarkets now. Or if it is it's for the staff. 

  Wife came home with two small bags of flour via her job today. We didn't panic buy 50kg of it.


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## tommybahama (Apr 8, 2020)

I was given a couple of very small bottles (like a couple ounces at most) of nice smelling hand sanitizer about a year ago.  They are so small they will fit in a pocket.  They are great to take to the grocery store so you can do things like sanitize your hands before getting back into the car.  I refill them using a bigger bottle at home.

Also, when SHTF, alcohol is money.  So stock up on that if you have room next to your hoard of TP.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 8, 2020)

tommybahama said:


> I was given a couple of very small bottles (like a couple ounces at most) of nice smelling hand sanitizer about a year ago.  They are so small they will fit in a pocket.  They are great to take to the grocery store so you can do things like sanitize your hands before getting back into the car.  I refill them using a bigger bottle at home.
> 
> Also, when SHTF, alcohol is money.  So stock up on that if you have room next to your hoard of TP.




  That's what the wife does. Uses little bottle at work, refills from 500ml.

 Not to worried about booze that will keep flowing, two breweries locally.


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## Dannyalcatraz (Apr 8, 2020)

Zardnaar said:


> That's what the wife does. Uses little bottle at work, refills from 500ml.
> 
> Not to worried about booze that will keep flowing, two breweries locally.



Well...unless they do wat a lot seem to be doing lately, namely, switching to producing hand sanitizer!

We aren’t heavy drinkers, but we like alcoholic beverages.  We probably have enough on hand to last our family through a second Prohibition.

...if we don’t share, of course.


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## Tonguez (Apr 8, 2020)

Because I dont eat bread and have a good garden, Im finding the whole panic buying situation really really amusing. Especially with what people are considering to be important staples (bread, flour, rice, toilet paper and dettol)

My wife and I did order in about 10ltrs of Isopropyl to make our own sanitiser and we she did go a bit overboard on eggs (4 trays of 30).

Its late autumn now though, so although Ive harvested ample fruit and vege for now, I am concerned about vegetable supply over winter


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## Zardnaar (Apr 8, 2020)

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well...unless they do wat a lot seem to be doing lately, namely, switching to producing hand sanitizer!
> 
> We aren’t heavy drinkers, but we like alcoholic beverages.  We probably have enough on hand to last our family through a second Prohibition.
> 
> ...if we don’t share, of course.




 I like alcohol as well, but don't drink a lot and haven't been sloshed since new year.  Drunk 3 or 4 cans of Baltika 9 sobered up in February (maybe lying).

 My favorite restaurant does $3 craft beers during happy hour. 3 of those ranging from 5.8 to 6.8 abv gives you a nice buzz no hangover. 

 Bought 4 cans of Zatecky Gus last night. They've another few days in isolation before I consume one. 

 Think I got drunk three times last year, one of the was DMing. Players were drinking as well, critical hits were consume thy vessel. 

 Game kinda fell apart that night for some strange reason.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 8, 2020)

Tonguez said:


> Because I dont eat bread and have a good garden, Im finding the whole panic buying situation really really amusing. Especially with what people are considering to be important staples (bread, flour, rice, toilet paper and dettol)
> 
> My wife and I did order in about 10ltrs of Isopropyl to make our own sanitiser and we she did go a bit overboard on eggs (4 trays of 30).
> 
> Its late autumn now though, so although Ive harvested ample fruit and vege for now, I am concerned about vegetable supply over winter




 What makes me laugh is people who buy flour and can't do anything with it. 

 I'm not the best cook in the world but can make cakes, pancakes, bread.


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## Ryujin (Apr 8, 2020)

We typically buy based on sales, so have 3-4 weeks of staples on hand at any given time anyway. Toilet paper, in particular, varies wildly in price and we haven't had to buy any in a month or more (and have weeks of stock left), based just on our normal buying practices.

Canned goods are a bit lower than usual. Rice, spaghetti, flour, etc. we've plenty of. Just being generally frugal goes a long way in situations like this.


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## aco175 (Apr 8, 2020)

Hoarding, like 3rd level PCs spending all their GP on the only 3 healing potions left in town and not leaving any for other adventuring parties.


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## R_J_K75 (Apr 8, 2020)

Dannyalcatraz said:


> We go through about one 2L pump bottle per year.




I bought a 2-pack of 50ml hand sanitizer in early September when I went to the pharmacy for my flu shot.  I keep one in the house and one in my truck.  They're both still a little under half full as I use them sparingly as from what I understand the jury is still out whether it does more harm than good.


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## Theo R Cwithin (Apr 8, 2020)

ccs said:


> I disagree.
> I shop for TP (and other similar products - paper towels, paper plates, soaps, trash bags, etc, even cat litter) once a year.  About mid-January (once the Christmas bills are paid off).  I know how much I use in a year.  And then I buy 13 months worth - just in case something goes awry.
> Mostly because I hate continuously shopping for this stuff.
> I'm fortunate that I can 1) afford to shop like this, 2) have the space to store it.
> ...



I usually live with several months of supplies on hand. However I spent the last year whittling it all down in order to move. _"Seriously,"_ I thought to myself, _"what are the chances of a major global crisis during the exact few months I'm planning a transcontinental move?"_

*Doh!* 

.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 8, 2020)

Wife said no to 24 if these. Can of Spaghetti provided for scale.




 It's a Czech style pilsner brewed by Baltika breweries in Russia which is owned by Carlsberg which is Danish. 

 So my Czech/Russian/Danish beer is being consumed in NZ. 

 I want to buy another 20 for emergency yeast supply honest. It's only two dozen.


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## Dannyalcatraz (Apr 9, 2020)

I went on a trip to Russia some years ago, as part of an MBA class.  We were looking at how business is done in Russia as a contrast to other countries.  One of the things we did was tour Razin brewery at @10AM.

When we got to the end of the tour, they ushered us into a boardroom, where we were each seated with an array of all 14 or so of Razin’s products,

It seems they were giddy at having just been bought by Heineken, so they were giving us samples of everything to try,  By “samples”, I mean we each had whole bottles, all opened in front of us, with glasses.

Did I mention the tour started at 10AM?

I definitely enjoyed much of what I had, and vowed to look for their stuff when I got back to the USA, especially their kvass- a traditional Russian low-alcohol beer made from fermented raisin bread which tastes a lot like Dr. Pepper.  It’s low enough in alcohol content they even sell it as a fountain drink.

Alas, the new owners seemed to have different plans.  I’ve never seen a Razin product anywhere since that day.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 9, 2020)

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I went on a trip to Russia some years ago, as part of an MBA class.  We were looking at how business is done in Russia as a contrast to other countries.  One of the things we did was tour Razin brewery at @10AM.
> 
> When we got to the end of the tour, they ushered us into a boardroom, where we were each seated with an array of all 14 or so of Razin’s products,
> 
> ...




 Yeah I was surprised by the beer. Baltika 9 is the only one I don't like but it's still drinkable. 

 It's better than a lot of brands such as Stella Artois, Corona, Heineken. Better than a few German beers.

 Baltika 6 us a nice Potter, Baltika 5 and 7 are good for a European style macro lager.

Blows our normal beers out of the water, not as good as our craft beers.


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## Dannyalcatraz (Apr 9, 2020)

I’ve had a couple Baltikas.  Might have been 5 & 7.  I liked them pretty much.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 9, 2020)

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I’ve had a couple Baltikas.  Might have been 5 & 7.  I liked them pretty much.




 Perfectly drinkable, nice even. Large bottles and cans as well. 

 Closed bottlestore shelf.




 Baltika 5,6,7,9, Imperial Stout and two Zatecky Gus. Big yellow can is Zhiguli (spelling?)

 5 is very similar to 7, grain taste isn't as strong.

 Baltika 6 highest ranked of the range.









						Baltika #6 Porter | Baltika Breweries
					

Baltika #6 Porter is a Baltic Porter style beer brewed by Baltika Breweries in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation. Score: 82 with 1,016 ratings and reviews. Last update: 12-25-2022.




					www.beeradvocate.com
				




 Baltika 7








						Baltika #7 Export | Baltika Breweries
					

Baltika #7 Export is a European / Dortmunder Export Lager style beer brewed by Baltika Breweries in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation. Score: 71 with 486 ratings and reviews. Last update: 09-27-2022.




					www.beeradvocate.com
				




 And premium range. 10% blow your socks off.








						Baltika Brew Collection - Russian Imperial Stout | Baltika Breweries
					

Baltika Brew Collection - Russian Imperial Stout is a Russian Imperial Stout style beer brewed by Baltika Breweries in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation. Score: 86 with 151 ratings and reviews. Last update: 12-26-2022.




					www.beeradvocate.com


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## Tonguez (Apr 9, 2020)

Theo R Cwithin said:


> I usually live with several months of supplies on hand. However I spent the last year whittling it all down in order to move. _"Seriously,"_ I thought to myself, _"what are the chances of a major global crisis during the exact few months I'm planning a transcontinental move?"_
> 
> *Doh!*
> 
> .




So it was your fault then Jonah!!!


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## Mad_Jack (Apr 9, 2020)

The pharmaceutical company I work at (we literally invented modern toothpaste and toothpaste in a tube back in 1850) has a shelf upstairs where they store all the extra product and rejects - Made an extra six boxes when they come twelve to a case? Can't send half a case, toss it on the shelf. Printed the wrong Lot Code on the labels? Oops. On the shelf.
 We get to take home anything on the shelf.
I haven't paid for toothpaste since I started three years ago.

One time I brought home a box of 100 large soap packets, made for industrial use - each packet mixes up into a _gallon_ of liquid soap. The one time I actually did it just to see what it was like, it took me a month to use it all.
So I think I'm good on soap, lol.

Right now, I have four and a half rolls of good toilet paper left, and eight rolls of the nasty stuff that leaves lint all over your butt. Being the only one in my house, I should be good for another month and a half on the good stuff and maybe even three on the low quality stuff.
I _am_ down to about four rolls of paper towels, though. Have to do something about that sometime in the next month.

 Food-wise, there doesn't seem to be much problem yet at the local supermarkets with anything other than meat and paper products, and I don't generally buy much fresh vegetation except for onions, potatoes and an occasional green pepper. I usually make a large pot of either soup or pasta with meat sauce for dinner and eat that all week, so as long as I can find some sort of meat around once a week I'm good. A package of hot dogs and a bag of frozen french fries will make four meals for me. I buy a pound and a half of cheese and a loaf of bread for lunch at work.
Having lived on peanut butter and ramen noodles for extended periods while I was unemployed for several long stretched over the past few years, it'll take some fairly major consequences from this virus thing to really make me worried about running out of food.


(Fun story: Once upon a time, the arcade at the local casino used to have a thing where after you'd spent a certain amount of money there, they upgraded your card so that you got a certain number of free games every time you came in. I used to play Fruit Ninja on the big touchscreen, and it paid out one ticket every ten points. I used to consistently score eighty or more tickets every game, and thus I'd end up with eight hundred tickets with my ten free games every day. Stopping in every day after work, I'd end up with at least 3500 tickets a week. In addition to the normal junk prizes, you could also drop major amounts of tickets to get things like video games, game _systems_, or even ask the manager to custom order you stuff. It took me six months, but I actually got a laptop _entirely with free tickets_. (If I'd actually chosen to invest some money in it, I could have had it in half the time for about $50...)
Relevant to this topic, for several months I was pretty much dead broke as my unemployment just barely covered my bills. And so, each week, I'd spend 3000 tickets to buy a $30 Burger King gift card, and then every night for dinner I'd go buy two or three of the 10-pc. chicken nuggets which were $1 apiece at the time. One card would get me nine or ten meals.
I was quite literally earning my daily bread with my exceptional skill at Fruit Ninja...   )


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## Zardnaar (Apr 9, 2020)

Dumb panic buying story. Closed for Easter Friday so staff can restock. 

 "Supermarkets aren't doing as many specials and prices are creeping up".

 Staff working in Friday to restock. Overtime rates time and a half day in lieu.

$30+ an hour
Work 8 hours, get 8 hours holiday pay added.

 Groceries cost more. No **** Sherlock.


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## Janx (Apr 9, 2020)

Before the scarcity panic started, I bought a jug of sanitizer because I was fixing the plumbing that weekend and the water was out.  That stuff will last forever because once I fixed the pipe, we wash our hands like normal people.

My wife's got a friend in Australia, which is about a week ahead of the US in the future (a joke for another time) and they already had the TP scarcity so she sent me to the store to grab a pack.  The next day, the hoarders hit, and I haven't seen TP on the shelves since in Houston.  A friend who works at HEB scored me another pack last week.

As to why it's scarce?  I assume two factors started it: intent to price gouge and desire to quarantine for a long time.  With no limits in place, those people emptied the stores.

My agent at HEB then explained why the problem continues.  Space on the truck.  Paper products take up more space and the stores had every category of product wiped out, so they never got enough TP to fully restock the shelf.

Once the scarcity hit, everybody realized they couldn't just nip off to the store for more of anything as needed., so when anything they might need hit the shelf, they grabbed it.  If TP happens to be on the shelf when I'm in the store this week, I'm grabbing my two packs because I don't know when I'll see more.  I would not keep doing that if I have at least one sealed pack left.  But it's random chance when the truck arrives and the shelf has product and I haven't seen it in the store since before the hoarders hit three weeks ago.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 9, 2020)

Shelves here are fine for TP. Got low at one point. 

 Super markets closed today. Friend had the ideas of going at 6:30 yesterday to dodge the crowds. So did everyone else. 

 Might break the powdered milk out, we've got a litre left we just don't want to go out due to Easter.


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## Dannyalcatraz (Apr 10, 2020)

Our TP situation is odd.

We we were running low enough to put it on the grocery list when the panic buyers emptied the shelves.  Before we could run out, our houseguest was able to score a pack at a drugstore- single-ply, but hey!

But before we even made a significant dent in THOSE- we decided to use them _before_ the rest of our preferred brand- Dad was able to buy a 12-pack of the good stuff.  And a couple days ago, my maternal aunt brought us another.  

So we’re good for the foreseeable future.


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## practicalm (Apr 10, 2020)

Another explanation for the TP shortage is that the manufacturers run at 24/7 capacity for normal buying.  There is no additional capacity to add so the panic buying demand cannot be matched and given that this isn't likely to last for very long, there is no easy way to increase production capacity.

The only thing I really haven't been able to find is yeast.  Everything else seems to have been restocked at some point or another.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 10, 2020)

practicalm said:


> Another explanation for the TP shortage is that the manufacturers run at 24/7 capacity for normal buying.  There is no additional capacity to add so the panic buying demand cannot be matched and given that this isn't likely to last for very long, there is no easy way to increase production capacity.
> 
> The only thing I really haven't been able to find is yeast.  Everything else seems to have been restocked at some point or another.




Yeast gone here as well.

  We have a bit and can still buy bread so it's not a massive deal.
Just avoid supermarkets on Wednesday and Thursday, benefit days and often payday.

With Easter there was a run on wine.

With Facebook it seems everyones just drinking.

Sex toy sales also tripled.

 Polishing off some beer, wife's hooking into the wine.


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## Tonguez (Apr 10, 2020)

practicalm said:


> Another explanation for the TP shortage is that the manufacturers run at 24/7 capacity for normal buying.  There is no additional capacity to add so the panic buying demand cannot be matched and given that this isn't likely to last for very long, there is no easy way to increase production capacity.
> 
> The only thing I really haven't been able to find is yeast.  Everything else seems to have been restocked at some point or another.




You do know theres yeast everywhere - including in the air, harvest that


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## Dannyalcatraz (Apr 10, 2020)

practicalm said:


> Another explanation for the TP shortage is that the manufacturers run at 24/7 capacity for normal buying.  There is no additional capacity to add so the panic buying demand cannot be matched and given that this isn't likely to last for very long, there is no easy way to increase production capacity.
> 
> The only thing I really haven't been able to find is yeast.  Everything else seems to have been restocked at some point or another.



From what I have heard from people working in retail, the _supply_ of TP is just fine.  But TP is a very bulky product to ship, and the panic buyers are outstripping the ability of manufacturers to _deliver_ it.  IOW, the bottleneck is logistical, not supply.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 10, 2020)

Dannyalcatraz said:


> From what I have heard from people working in retail, the _supply_ of TP is just fine.  But TP is a very bulky product to ship, and the panic buyers are outstripping the ability of manufacturers to _deliver_ it.  IOW, the bottleneck is logistical, not supply.




 I used to work in a distribution center. TPs easy to ship as you said very bulky. 

 The bottleneck is the guys who go around the DCs collecting stuff. Only so many can fit down the aisles, only so many palatizers and forklifts available and can fit etc.


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## Umbran (Apr 10, 2020)

practicalm said:


> Another explanation for the TP shortage is that the manufacturers run at 24/7 capacity for normal buying.  There is no additional capacity to add so the panic buying demand cannot be matched and given that this isn't likely to last for very long, there is no easy way to increase production capacity.




It isn't that simple.

1) Much of the capacity is used in making paper products _for workplaces_ - they make TP expecting folks to be going to the bathroom in office buildings for much of the week.  This leaves us with an issue much like we have with flour - there's plenty of it around, but not the stuff you buy for your home.

2) After the initial rush of panic buying of _everything_, there's only so much capacity for restocking stores - and on a truck those paper products take up huge volume for a relatively small number of units.  So, they only restock so much at a time, and everyone who didn't panic-buy scoops up what does appear.


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## Umbran (Apr 10, 2020)

Tonguez said:


> You do know theres yeast everywhere - including in the air, harvest that




I was so hoping the hipster sourdough thing would pass this site by....


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## Tonguez (Apr 10, 2020)

Umbran said:


> I was so hoping the hipster sourdough thing would pass this site by....




Hipster? Its actually a long established traditional practice here - my family has a 50 year old bug.

as I said earlier, I find the whole panic buy thing amusing and one of the things that makes me grin is when people say they cant find yeast


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## Umbran (Apr 10, 2020)

Tonguez said:


> Hipster? Its actually a long established traditional practice here - my family has a 50 year old bug.




So... you were doing it before it was cool, is that what you are saying?

Totally hipster.


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## Tonguez (Apr 10, 2020)

Umbran said:


> So... you were doing it before it was cool, is that what you are saying?
> 
> Totally hipster.




Touche


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## The Green Hermit (Apr 10, 2020)

Theo R Cwithin said:


> I usually live with several months of supplies on hand. However I spent the last year whittling it all down in order to move. _"Seriously,"_ I thought to myself, _"what are the chances of a major global crisis during the exact few months I'm planning a transcontinental move?"_
> 
> *Doh!*
> 
> .




We did the same thing for the same reason about a decade ago . . . when the region got shut down for a week with no way in or out the day before we were supposed to move. 

Once again, we are supposed to be moving in about a month. This time, we are still stocking up, not whittling down.


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## Janx (Apr 10, 2020)

There was TP in HEB today, albeit 4 packs.  Limit 2 packs.  

There was a decent stack, so I grabbed 2. 

I'm debating installing a bidet, but I'm dubious on its ability to remove peanut butter from between two buns and I'm not looking forward to a cold surprise in the attempt.  I've seen articles touting the various models. but no explanation of how the fancy ones get power.


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## The Green Hermit (Apr 10, 2020)

practicalm said:


> Another explanation for the TP shortage is that the manufacturers run at 24/7 capacity for normal buying.  There is no additional capacity to add so the panic buying demand cannot be matched and given that this isn't likely to last for very long, there is no easy way to increase production capacity.
> 
> The only thing I really haven't been able to find is yeast.  Everything else seems to have been restocked at some point or another.



There's always sourdough, but starter takes about a week to make.


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## The Green Hermit (Apr 10, 2020)

Umbran said:


> I was so hoping the hipster sourdough thing would pass this site by....



Hipster? I have been baking bread since I was 9 years old. And right now, I am glad of that, because I know how to feed my family.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 10, 2020)

Didn't they just leave dough out over night and bake it?

 Has buying bread become hard?

 We've got a little bit of yeast only planning in baking bread if things get bad and we don't want to leave the house at all.


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## The Green Hermit (Apr 10, 2020)

Where I live, they have placed a limit on bread. I have teenagers. Even if I can get enough bread for the day (and that is iffy) I would have to go back to the store every day if I didn't bake it myself.

Plus, I am a darned good baker and the bread I bake is much better than what you can buy at the store (even if it is more convenient/time-efficient that way).


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## The Green Hermit (Apr 10, 2020)

Zardnaar said:


> Didn't they just leave dough out over night and bake it?
> 
> Has buying bread become hard?
> 
> We've got a little bit of yeast only planning in baking bread if things get bad and we don't want to leave the house at all.



Some sourdough recipes call for that, but that is only once you have the starter to begin with. If you need to start completely from scratch, starter takes about 5 days -- and that isn't counting the bread itself.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 10, 2020)

The Green Hermit said:


> Some sourdough recipes call for that, but that is only once you have the starter to begin with. If you need to start completely from scratch, starter takes about 5 days -- and that isn't counting the bread itself.




Yeah I only found out what a starter was a few days ago.

Sour dough hasn't gone completely mad here but pizzas are doing it. Pizza Hutt makes nice ones and we had a frozen pizza one the other night.

 Hipster cafes might be different but I don't really go to normal cafes let alone hipster ones.


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## Tonguez (Apr 10, 2020)

The Green Hermit said:


> Some sourdough recipes call for that, but that is only once you have the starter to begin with. If you need to start completely from scratch, starter takes about 5 days -- and that isn't counting the bread itself.




Our recipe uses potato water as a base and the ferment usually only takes a day or so in warm weather, maybe 3-5 in cold conditions. Of course when using an existing bug, its quicker.

Growing up my grandparents lived near some geothermal pools, my grandmother and mother use to cook our bread in the steam vents, it was delicious


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## Zardnaar (Apr 11, 2020)

Tonguez said:


> Our recipe uses potato water as a base and the ferment usually only takes a day or so in warm weather, maybe 3-5 in cold conditions. Of course when using an existing bug, its quicker.
> 
> Growing up my grandparents lived near some geothermal pools, my grandmother and mother use to cook our bread in the steam vents, it was delicious




Maori here used to do something similar.

They also cook via a hangi which is a hole in the ground and the food is buried and steam cooked.

Haven't prepped a hangi for 20 years but child hood memories of Scouts, hobbo stoves and collecting shellfish are coming back.


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## Umbran (Apr 11, 2020)

The Green Hermit said:


> Hipster? I have been baking bread since I was 9 years old. And right now, I am glad of that, because I know how to feed my family.




So, folks, what do you do when two people in the same thread blunder smack dab into the middle of the same joke without noticing?  It seems... unsporting...


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## Dannyalcatraz (Apr 11, 2020)

Umbran said:


> So, folks, what do you do when two people in the same thread blunder smack dab into the middle of the same joke without noticing?  It seems... unsporting...



When they keep setting the ball to you, you MUST spike it.


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## Olgar Shiverstone (Apr 11, 2020)

Umbran said:


> So, folks, what do you do when two people in the same thread blunder smack dab into the middle of the same joke without noticing?  It seems... unsporting...




Repetition  and trauma are two primary modes of learning. This achieves both.


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## Dannyalcatraz (Apr 11, 2020)

Olgar Shiverstone said:


> Repetition  and trauma are two primary modes of learning. This achieves both.



I remember one of my college Philosphy profs got paged in the middle of a lecture that his wife was in labor.  He made the announcement and rushed off- class over!

Next week, he shows up and he’s still in early stage of daddy daze (smiles + sleep deprivation + proud poppa, etc.) and answering questions about his little firstborn girl for the first 10+ minutes of class.  Then he gets up, walks to the chalkboard and says, “Back to our discussion of PAIN!”

I turned to my buddy, “That little girl is going to grow up messed up.”


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## Mad_Jack (Apr 12, 2020)

This week we've managed to get some meat and TP back in the stores, but canned veggibles seem to be the trending item for #not-there-anymore...

 Also, a week ago, there was still a full section of Ben & Jerry's in the freezer at the local Stop & Shop, but now it's all gone. It really _is_ the End of The World, I guess...


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## Umbran (Apr 20, 2020)

Relevant to the sourdough discussion....


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## Dannyalcatraz (Apr 21, 2020)

Umbran said:


> Relevant to the sourdough discussion....



It’s like a microbiological version of the xenomorphs from _Alien!_  I see it so clearly now!

Thank goodness I buy my sourdough from the bakery...


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## Zardnaar (Apr 21, 2020)

Dannyalcatraz said:


> It’s like a microbiological version of the xenomorphs from _Alien!_  I see it so clearly now!
> 
> Thank goodness I buy my sourdough from the bakery...




 You have bakery open? Damn. 

 Hot cross buns were a washout this year.


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## Dannyalcatraz (Apr 21, 2020)

Zardnaar said:


> You have bakery open? Damn.
> 
> Hot cross buns were a washout this year.



Many of the groceries around here have in-house bakeries.  Those are the ones I hit the most.  That works out great for us because we’re currently limited to 1 loaf per trip in the bread aisle, but there’s no limit on stuff from the bakery.  This is especially important to us since Mom is super picky about bread.  The only thing she _tolerates_ from the bread aisle is sliced white (only if it’s toasted) and marble rye,

There are a few EXCELLENT standalones we normally hit, too.  But they’re farther away, so it hasn’t been feasible for us to even see if they’re open.


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## Zardnaar (Apr 21, 2020)

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Many of the groceries around here have in-house bakeries.  Those are the ones I hit the most.  That works out great for us because we’re currently limited to 1 loaf per trip in the bread aisle, but there’s no limit on stuff from the bakery.  This is especially important to us since Mom is super picky about bread.  The only thing she _tolerates_ from the bread aisle is sliced white (only if it’s toasted) and marble rye,
> 
> There are a few EXCELLENT standalones we normally hit, too.  But they’re farther away, so it hasn’t been feasible for us to even see if they’re open.




 Fresh breads not really a big problem here. Bought some from a small dairy. 

 Supermarkets have in store bakeries and they're quite good. Think we buy two loaves a week and make one if we run low. 

 Burgers and pita no change.

 Panic buying was the worst around days leading up to lockdown and easter. We haven't had the lines up north but I got the family shopping on Sunday morning, annd on Mondays/Tuesdays avoiding most of the weekend and welfare pay days.


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## Bohandas (Apr 28, 2020)

Zardnaar said:


> Panic buying IMHO is due to 2 things.
> 
> 1. Fear of missing out or FOMO.
> 2. Trying to control something. You can't do much individually about Covid 19 but you can buy toilet paper.




Don't forget the bandwagon effect. 

Also tradition.


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