# 15 Roleplaying Game Predictions for 2015



## Akodoken (Jan 12, 2015)

You are probably right on all fronts, time will tell.

Well, except one part in #12, "With the delivery of this final installment Palladium Books will begin to show a marked difference in how they set up their production goals, moving from specific dates and months as they have done throughout much of their past, to a more generalized quarterly schedule that will help them break the reputation for always being delayed in every product they produce."

I respect Mr. Siembieda and I love much of the work he, and his dedicated teammates, have produced. However, I have made this statement too many times in the past, only to have PB prove me wrong. I consider this healthy skepticism in this regard, and I am more than happy to purchase their products when they do release.


----------



## TrippyHippy (Jan 12, 2015)

Of those on the list, the ones that most interest me the most aren’t actually directly linked to role-playing! That is, I do hope we can see some decent D&D movies, with high production values, direction and movie-star appeal. There won’t be any more Middle-Earth or Harry Potter franchised fantasy movies from now on, and as such there ought to be a market for these films - if they are done well. I actually think The Hobbit movies, although they were only lukewarmly received by critics as Tolkien adaptations, were actually good models for how a fantasy movie could be done well. Of course, ‘D&D’ movies won’t ever be lauded as high-brow - but they could nevertheless be successful entertainments. 

With regards to everything else, it’s fairly obvious that D&D will reclaim it’s No.1 ranking. I do hope Pathfinder keeps going well, though too. As a game, it’s a little mechanically heavy for my tastes - but the RPG industry needs the competition. Similarly, I hope FFG keeps chugging on too - although they’re primarily still a board game maker I feel. It will be interesting to see their plans for both the Star Wars and 40KRP lines after 2015 - as both seem to have completed their core rule book releases respectively by then. 

Other companies/games that could make an impact (or not) might be Cubicle 7 with their Doctor Who and The One Ring lines now both cooking along with releases, the new 7th edition of Call of Cthulhu (which will probably be out by about March/April I’m reckoning) along with some affiliated new companies like Modiphius Press making some impact, and maybe The Onyx Path who is starting to get a more recognisable profile in the wake of White Wolf’s effective demise.

The latter of those is actually doing incredibly well in it’s use of Kickstarter and drivethrurpg.com to get product out now. They still have a terrible delay on their record Exalted fundraiser, but the Mage:The Ascension 20th Anniversary raised nearly as much and appears well on the way towards meeting all deadlines. Not only that, but they are actually supporting two alternative World of Darkness lines (Classic and New) as well as other lines such as the Trinity and Scion series and other new lines too. It’s difficult to gauge their success in comparison to Wizards and the rest, because their core trade is done in such a different way - but they still have a presence.


----------



## Akodoken (Jan 12, 2015)

Thank you for mentioning The Onyx Path TrippyHippy. Much love for the Worlds of Darkness (and other game lines).


----------



## Will Doyle (Jan 12, 2015)

"While new products will continue to be released fears of economic instability, terrorism, and the like will see sales in Europe decline"

We're scared of terrorists, so we're not going to buy the latest D&D adventure??


----------



## TrippyHippy (Jan 12, 2015)

Edit.


----------



## Astrosicebear (Jan 12, 2015)

TrippyHippy said:


> Edit.




"According to Fox News" Would make a good Cards Against Humanity card.


----------



## DaveMage (Jan 12, 2015)

If you would have asked me about #14 a couple of months ago, I would agree.

Now I'm not so sure.  Does anyone else find it odd that only 1 D&D product for 2015 appears on the WotC website?

Maybe the 2 "official" books from Sasquatch are delayed?  I thought one had to solicit months in advance to have a product in the distribution pipeline.  If D&D only releases a DM Screen in Q1 2015, they'll be lucky to stay in the Top 5 much less the #1 spot.


----------



## ceakins1 (Jan 12, 2015)

DaveMage said:


> If you would have asked me about #14 a couple of months ago, I would agree.
> 
> Now I'm not so sure.  Does anyone else find it odd that only 1 D&D product for 2015 appears on the WotC website?
> 
> Maybe the 2 "official" books from Sasquatch are delayed?  I thought one had to solicit months in advance to have a product in the distribution pipeline.  If D&D only releases a DM Screen in Q1 2015, they'll be lucky to stay in the Top 5 much less the #1 spot.




While the Sasquatch books aren't on the catalog right now that doesn't mean that they've been delayed. Wizards has shown a marked habit of holding off on putting things up until they're certain that it will actually come out. It's why the 5e PH didn't show up for a looooooooong time in the catalog even though everyone knew it was coming out soon and it had been announced on twitter and at several conventions.


----------



## delericho (Jan 12, 2015)

DaveMage said:


> If you would have asked me about #14 a couple of months ago, I would agree.
> 
> Now I'm not so sure.  Does anyone else find it odd that only 1 D&D product for 2015 appears on the WotC website?




Note that he said they'd drop to #2, not that they'd necessarily _stay_ there.


----------



## iwarrior-poet (Jan 12, 2015)

My desperately bleak prediction---is that there will not be an official digital game aide released for D&D. WoTC will again squander an opportunity to bring in tween/teen/twenty+ gamers and cement ties with digital savvy older gamers. This will cap over a decade of blunders in this area. Ugh.


----------



## marroon69 (Jan 12, 2015)

Lots of love for WOTC?... in my area it is not really seeing a growth in community, there was initial push but then it tapped off.  2015 will determine its success now that all the new game smell is fading. If they go down the route of letting of Hazbro determine product schedule (less game more profit with poor quality), they do not support PDF's (have no idea why this is an issue???) and have a crappy OLG,  I think it may hurt the brand long term and then muddy the waters. They will be always be a major player but it will interesting to how big. Will they ever bring back Dungeon and Dragon in print?l

On the other hand Paizo is running to about the end of there line it seems...the core books they put out are getting more and more niche related, the adventure paths do not seem to generate the excitement they have had in the past and they had some product issues (poor editing).  It will be interesting to see where they go...

It seems like the small game companies are the ones doing the expansion, Monte Cook Games seems like it can not fail, Troll Lord games has had 3 successful kick starters basically revitalizing their game lines and a there a a ton of instances where it seems to jump start a company or a game. It will be interesting to see if there will be more fractures in the industry next year or if the base will stay focused on WOCT and Paizo.

My thoughts...2015 will be an interesting year.


----------



## ceakins1 (Jan 12, 2015)

marroon69 said:


> Will they ever bring back Dungeon and Dragon in print?l




They've already said no to that one. 



marroon69;6493519It seems like the small game companies are the ones doing the expansion said:


> Totally agree.


----------



## MadmanMike83 (Jan 12, 2015)

RE: PAX Live D&D

I don't see Vin Diesel being their go-to. I think there are a number of more viable options whose personalities and name recognition strike a better balance w/ the intended audience. This would be my shortlist:

Chris Hardwick
Patton Oswalt
Chris Kluwe
Dan Harmon
Stephen Colbert

A competitive dungeon adventure w/ the folks from Nerd Poker might make for an interesting mix up.


----------



## DMZ2112 (Jan 12, 2015)

The D&D5 OGL has absolutely not been "confirmed."  Chris Perkins said that "it is [their] intention to bring back the OGL."  That's corporate weaselspeak at its finest.  I'm not saying Perkins is lying, or that the OGL is not going to happen, or even that it is unlikely, but calling his statements a confirmation is misinformation.  If the OGL were coming beyond a shadow of a doubt, he would have said, "the OGL is coming, we just don't know when."

Worst case scenario at Gen Con 2015: "Sorry, guys, the design team really /intended/ to bring back the OGL, but we just couldn't come to an arrangement that made the lawyers happy."  With luck, they won't try to fill the void with another GSL.

Actually, no, the worst case scenario is that we never hear about it again.  But that seems unlikely in the new paradigm.  They'll do their best to spin it.  Wizards is finally getting some really solid marketing advice from somewhere.

In May, Mearls promised we'd see (fan) licensing details in the autumn and the program would launch in early 2015.  For my part, I expect a _license_ having to do with _gaming_, but if it was going to be _open_, we'd already have those details.


----------



## Plissken (Jan 12, 2015)

If a D&D movie is made, I hope star power is attached in the form of voices. I think a computer animated version of The Crystal Shard would make a great film (but not the other two in the Icewind Dale Trilogy).


----------



## TarionzCousin (Jan 12, 2015)

So... no My Little Pony RPG in 2015? Sigh.


----------



## DMZ2112 (Jan 12, 2015)

In 2006, [MENTION=31304]TarionzCousin[/MENTION], that was a joke.  Today, it would sell like the world was ending and God's grace was reserved for 7th-level lawful friendly pegasus pony royal guards.

(Thank you, http://mlp.wikia.com)


----------



## Guang (Jan 12, 2015)

15 Roleplaying Game Predictions for 2015 said:
			
		

> in recent months this seems to have been exacerbated by controversies that have happened both in our own hobby and outside it.



There were controversies? What did I miss?


----------



## Mercurius (Jan 12, 2015)

You forgot one:

16. Ryan Dancey Again Predicts Impending Doom for the RPG Industry (and his predictions are ,once again, proven wrong/hyperbolic/pre-mature)


----------



## Hand of Evil (Jan 12, 2015)

When will OGL not be OGL?  Don't see the OGL as open as it once was, think WotC will be more limited with it.  Just don't think they want to see another Pathfinder. 

Movie - don't see it but do see cable (or Amazon/Netflix) series like Game of Thrones or Black Sails, etc...

Pathfinder remains number 1; D&D may take it as products are released but Paizo is too prolific in product source.


----------



## Morrus (Jan 12, 2015)

When people refer to the OGL for 5E, they're using a shorthand which might not be clear.  Generally speaking they are not saying "the OGL that was used for 3.x back in the early 2000s"; they are saying "a third-party license reminiscent of an OGL". I don't think anybody thinks that the actual original OGL is going to applied to 5E.


----------



## Bugleyman (Jan 12, 2015)

iwarrior-poet said:


> My desperately bleak prediction---is that there will not be an official digital game aide released for D&D. WoTC will again squander an opportunity to bring in tween/teen/twenty+ gamers and cement ties with digital savvy older gamers. This will cap over a decade of blunders in this area. Ugh.




Ding ding ding!  We have a winner.

I further predict that there will be a group of die-hards who refuse to admit WotC is even _capable_ of making mistakes, let alone that they actally did. 

Happily, it isn't too late, and the problem is an easy one to fix.  The question is, will WotC put aside the hubris, or will it be 4E all over again?  Either way, the answer should be clear by the time 2016 rolls around.


----------



## Fergurg (Jan 12, 2015)

About #3: It is worth noting that there is not only a move toward people fragmenting, but a push toward removing "the unwanted" from the hobby, based on political views. That's nothing new, but now, game publishers are getting in on that.

Posthuman Studios said, on their website, "If you consider yourself an MRA [men's rights activist], please fire yourselves as fans of Eclipse Phase. We don't want you." Evil Hat Games successfully had a competitor's product, GamerGate: The Game, pulled from One Book Shelf's website and bragged about it on their Twitter feed. They also said in response to people not happy with that, "If you're offended by SJW [social justice warriors], please continue boycotting our products. I actually don't want my products in your hands."


----------



## Gilwen (Jan 12, 2015)

Number 12 made me giggle...I'm still giggling as a matter of fact.....all I could think was it hasn't been 15 years yet, no way is that 2nd wave coming this early.


----------



## Fergurg (Jan 12, 2015)

I would modify #3 to "The game publishers will continue to cultivate the gaming community's fragmenting into more insular sub-communities."


----------



## Morrus (Jan 12, 2015)

Fergurg said:


> About #3: It is worth noting that there is not only a move toward people fragmenting, but a push toward removing "the unwanted" from the hobby, based on political views. That's nothing new; rpg.net has been banning people who question claims of sexism for years, and their ban of anyone defending GamerGate is just an extension of those rules. But now, game publishers are getting in on that.
> 
> Posthuman Studios said, on their website, "If you consider yourself an MRA [men's rights activist], please fire yourselves as fans of Eclipse Phase. We don't want you." Evil Hat Games successfully had a competitor's product, GamerGate: The Game, pulled from One Book Shelf's website and bragged about it on their Twitter feed. They also said in response to people not happy with that, "If you're offended by SJW [social justice warriors], please continue our products. I actually don't want my products in your hands."




Please take discussions on this topic to Circvsmaximvs -- it's not an appropriate topic for EN World. Thanks.


----------



## GrahamWills (Jan 12, 2015)

#15: Don't care and doesn't impact me
#14: Seems possible, but again, so long as both are well supported, doesn't change anything
#13: The critical question is the form of the OGL. If it's a poison-pill OGL or too limited to be safe to use, it will just be ignored
#12-9: Whatever -- Robotech tactics, really?
#8: Terrorism and current high gas prices (?) make people buy less RPGs? This seems a very unlikely prediction. I'd suggest looking a Kickstarter trends to see that if anything, we will see an increase.
#7: I have no idea or interest
#6: As always, any poll based on popular votes will go to the most popular system (e.g. origins). As always, votes by experts will stay well away from these (The Diana Jones awards). The statement that 5e has "unbeatable rules" is only true for popularity contests. I think you'll find that a significant number of people think the rules are pretty good for D&D but by no means the best rules possible for any system
#5: Agree. Indie++ ftw
#4: Not a chance. Read Hollywood news. Star power is so over as a concept, except for a very select few, and even they cannot make people see otherwise excellent movies like "Edge of Tomorrow". 
#3: Agree. D&D 5e is a clear rejection of moving towards other communities and strongly is a "return to core base" thrust. One piece of evidence for that is the high ratings for all their products here in enworld. Anytime anything gets uniformly good ratings, it says that only dedicated fans are rating it. Anyone who might have been interested in a new direction for D&D has left the ship. 
#2: Yup. Honeymoon over. Too much bad material and failed promises. Gotta have some evidence you will execute to get cash.
#1: Yup. They lost their way


----------



## Stormonu (Jan 13, 2015)

#12 is a fantasy on par with Kevin himself.  Tactics wave #2 won't show until December or later (and ROW won't have it until mid 2016).

I think the OGL is too late now.  When it comes out, it will be a lame duck and relatively unsupported due to lack of interest by the overall customer base - who still remember the 3E glut.

The same holds for D&D computer aids.  Sadly, Hasbro/WotC has proven they lack fundamental skills to properly maintain such software beyond basic book-to-database character generators, which 3rd party developers seem to excel far better at doing.

If 5E stays strong, I think we'll see Paizo slowly move away from pushing their own RPG as their primary product and move towards supplemental materials that work with either system.  As well as delve deeper into non-RPG products, such as bolstering their Adventure card game.  I wouldn't be surprised to see full-on fantasy board games from them, using bestiary pawns or possibly even pathfinder miniatures for the pieces.

While we might see a D&D movie announced this year, most likely it will suck, no matter who produces it or who stars in it.  Unfortunately, unless someone takes a serious stab at making a movie out D&D novels, there's too much B-rated baggage in the game for it to translate well to the screen.


----------



## dd.stevenson (Jan 13, 2015)

> 3. The Online Gaming Community Will Fragment Further Into More Insular Sub-Communities



I think this prediction is spot on as far as messageboards, facebook, twitter, and other comment-driven media are concerned.

However, I'm willing to bet that youtube and twitch based communities will show an opposite trend, at least for the time being, with communities consolidating and growing around popular personalities.


----------



## Tyranthraxus (Jan 13, 2015)

I predict that this is the year Kickstarter will start to see a lot more projects unfunded or a decline in the number of kickstarters in general once the first becomes apparent.

Paizo is also at the end of the tether in regards to what it can do for it's gaming system. There are now so many classes, choices/other its become the bloat system.


----------



## Guang (Jan 13, 2015)

Tyranthraxus said:


> Paizo is also at the end of the tether in regards to what it can do for it's gaming system. There are now so many classes, choices/other its become the bloat system.



It's gaming system yes, but not it's setting-connected material (and possibly APs). Still lots of places with a unique twist left to explore in future products.


----------



## sunshadow21 (Jan 13, 2015)

There's a lot of assumptions in that list that rely on a D&D movie and/or video game 1)being made, 2)being good, and 3)being successful. The first is likely to happen eventually, but probably not this year, and the last two are far more dubious and subject to individual interpretation. They have been pushing the idea that the brand is more than the tabletop game for more than two decades now, and they have had limited success at best. I don't really see that changing anytime soon. In the end, the brand will need a massive jump start to sustain the initial boost that 5E's release gave them, and I just don't see where it's going to come from. Any project that could do it, aside from 5E itself, started at most nine months ago, and is at least a year away from having a final product see the light of day.

As for 5E, I don't see it fading away, but I also don't see WotC doing anything that would firmly give them back their crown of being the top game. They had a solid launch with the core books, and those books will continue to do well, but it will be hard to build on it unless they have a lot of resources in reserve ready to throw at the next book and get the end result on the market extra fast while maintaining the same quality. Paizo and all of the others aren't sitting still and are going to continue to provide competition, and once the luster of 5E wears off, it's going to become clear that it is geared toward a very specific type of game, and that it isn't the grand reuniter that WotC has been trying to tout. Even if Paizo stumbles, the indy market is strong enough now that even if individual publishers can't compete with the D&D brand, the combination of all of them can.

I guess in the end, while I can say that I have been pleasantly surprised at how well WotC did last year, they still have a long ways to go before they prove themselves to have finally secured the long vaunted goal of making D&D something more than what it was when they first bought it. They've repaired most of the damage they've caused along the way, more or less, but they have yet to show any signs of being able to truly manage the brand as a whole all that well and even 5E has yet to show that it will have a long and positive legacy. So for all of the predictions in the list regarding WotC and D&D, I would say wait a year and reevaluate them before putting too much weight behind them. It's simply too early to tell which way those things will go.


----------



## sunshadow21 (Jan 13, 2015)

Tyranthraxus said:


> Paizo is also at the end of the tether in regards to what it can do for it's gaming system. There are now so many classes, choices/other its become the bloat system.




Paizo will continue to evolve, as they have been since losing the magazines and creating Pathfinder. There's still a lot left in that system if they manage it right. I suspect that for them the challenges presented by 5E and a new year aren't going to be all that much different from all of the other challenges they have dealt with up to this point. It will be an interesting year for them, but not likely anymore so than any other year has been. As for the bloat, they still have less bloat than 3.5 did, and most of the bloat is of a reasonably decent quality and easily ignored if one doesn't care for it, neither of which was the case with most of the later 3.5 material.


----------



## delericho (Jan 13, 2015)

At this point, my best hope for a semi-watchable D&D movie is that they'll hire Vin Diesel and The Rock to star, and call it "The Dungeons and the Dragons".


----------



## rknop (Jan 13, 2015)

I am facepalming that WOTC isn't putting out legal PDFs of the 5e system.  Honestly, do they think it's still the 1990s?  This is one thing holding me back from really checking out 5e.  I'm past lugging around large numbers of large books for refrence.  (I still iike the print books for _reading_, but for reference the PDFs are so much nicer.  That's why, if possible, I like to get both.  Evil Hat's "Free PDF" program, and Paizo's subscriptions, are nice in this regard.)

I will also be shocked if they actually put out an open gaming license for 5e.  Pleasantly surprised, yes, but shocked.  I expect they might come out with some sort of third party licensing thing that a lot trumpet as "the 5e OGL", but it won't be open at all, and attaching the "Open" name to it is going to be a bit of a travesty.  I suspect that the corporeate overloards at WOTC and/or their massive parent company still see WOTC has having been burned by the the OGL during third edition.  (On the other hand, it was  clearly good for *us* and for the gaming community.  Whether or not WOTC was burned by it is debatable; I think they were burned by their retreat from it in 4e, honestly.)


----------



## Trum (Jan 13, 2015)

rknop said:


> I am facepalming that WOTC isn't putting out legal PDFs of the 5e system.  Honestly, do they think it's still the 1990s?



Same here. Just can't think of any legitimate arguments for not doing it. They even have working and rather popular online distribution system at DNDClassics. Why no new books?


----------



## Morrus (Jan 13, 2015)

Trum said:


> Same here. Just can't think of any legitimate arguments for not doing it. They even have working and rather popular online distribution system at DNDClassics. Why no new books?




One of the traditional arguments is that the retailers and distributors don't like it.  They think it cuts into their sales.  We know better, WotC might even know better, and Paizo and others have proved it, but the retailers and distributors might not.  In that sort of scenario, electronic copies would tail behind the print ones by a significant period of time.


----------



## Henry (Jan 13, 2015)

sunshadow21 said:


> Paizo will continue to evolve, as they have been since losing the magazines and creating Pathfinder. There's still a lot left in that system if they manage it right. I suspect that for them the challenges presented by 5E and a new year aren't going to be all that much different from all of the other challenges they have dealt with up to this point. It will be an interesting year for them, but not likely anymore so than any other year has been. As for the bloat, they still have less bloat than 3.5 did, and most of the bloat is of a reasonably decent quality and easily ignored if one doesn't care for it, neither of which was the case with most of the later 3.5 material.




Something that seems to be forgotten - Paizo seems to be edging towards the same tactics that Mike Mearls stated that Wizards is following - that is, using the RPGs to fuel the creative content for other media forms. People are mindful of Paizo's RPG line, but don't realize that their Adventure Card game has been a huge hit for them; their fiction line may sell as well or better than the RPGs; they have comic books through Dynamite, and now mini-mates figures that I seriously doubt are being used for minis play at the tabletop. 

Oh, and Russ - I dont know whats happening in Europe right now, but petrol prices are falling through the floor in the U.S. right now due to price wars.  sadly, someone will lose, and they'll skyrocket again, but it ticks me off when people raise prices on things and claim it's due to "rising gas prices for transport" but when gas prices fall he goods prices don't go down...


----------



## Trum (Jan 13, 2015)

Morrus said:


> We know better, WotC might even know better, and Paizo and others have proved it, but the retailers and distributors might not.



Yeah, I know, circle of ignorance  Of course, nobody knows where to get these pdf's on net, if someone really need them, so the only logical way is to halt any official sales. Go figure.


----------



## delericho (Jan 13, 2015)

Henry said:


> Oh, and Russ - I dont know whats happening in Europe right now, but petrol prices are falling through the floor in the U.S. right now due to price wars.  sadly, someone will lose, and they'll skyrocket again, but it ticks me off when people raise prices on things and claim it's due to "rising gas prices for transport" but when gas prices fall he goods prices don't go down...




Over here the price of _oil_ is falling, but the price of petrol is dropping much more slowly - partly because of all the extra tax we pay on petrol here, and partly that "when gas prices fall he goods prices don't go down" thing...

(There's also some political stuff about it, especially in Scotland, but that's not for here.)


----------



## DaveMage (Jan 13, 2015)

Tyranthraxus said:


> I predict that this is the year Kickstarter will start to see a lot more projects unfunded or a decline in the number of kickstarters in general once the first becomes apparent.




I think that's true for the unknown publishers, but for those that have successfully run Kickstarters, I think they will continue and have as many or more.  Personally, I'm not doing any more Kickstarters with unknown (to me) RPG companies - or known ones that have been poor at running them.



Tyranthraxus said:


> Paizo is also at the end of the tether in regards to what it can do for it's gaming system. There are now so many classes, choices/other its become the bloat system.




Their lineup this year (Pathfinder Unchained and Occult Adventures) shows they are still expanding choices.  If those are successful, there's no reason to think they won't continue with these types of books (although I agree the choices are likely overwhelming for most).  There would normally be a concern about "barrier to entry" - meaning the cost to play their game would be so high for a new player that it's not worth bothering.  However, with their free PRD, that's not really an issue.

interesting times.


----------



## chibi graz'zt (Jan 13, 2015)

MY dream for a D&D movie has always been a fully CGI animated film like Beowulf, starring big names doing the voice acting. This allows for incredibly amazing magical and dragon effects. I also hope its finally set in the FR since this is now the official setting and if this movie is successful they can do other films set in Athas etc.


----------



## Morrus (Jan 13, 2015)

chibi graz'zt said:


> MY dream for a D&D movie has always been a fully CGI animated film like Beowulf, starring big names doing the voice acting. This allows for incredibly amazing magical and dragon effects. I also hope its finally set in the FR since this is now the official setting and if this movie is successful they can do other films set in Athas etc.




Mine is Dragonlance done like the LotR movies.


----------



## pickin_grinnin (Jan 13, 2015)

I will be very surprised if they get another D&D movie off the ground, and even more surprised if they do a good job with it.


----------



## sunshadow21 (Jan 13, 2015)

Henry said:


> Something that seems to be forgotten - Paizo seems to be edging towards the same tactics that Mike Mearls stated that Wizards is following - that is, using the RPGs to fuel the creative content for other media forms. People are mindful of Paizo's RPG line, but don't realize that their Adventure Card game has been a huge hit for them; their fiction line may sell as well or better than the RPGs; they have comic books through Dynamite, and now mini-mates figures that I seriously doubt are being used for minis play at the tabletop.




The big difference is that Paizo actually seems to be doing it successfully the first time around where WotC has been singing the same tune since buying D&D and has yet to see any sustained success. Maybe WotC and Hasbro have finally figured the secret out, maybe they haven't, but Paizo definitely has, at least for the short term, and they have a solid foundation to build long term success off of. Paizo has been good at making content from the start that would translate reasonably well into secondary markets/products while still tying into the brand as a whole and still finding ways to succeed in their primary market. D&D has a lot of great worlds and characters, but nothing that is notably unique or that WotC can really build a brand around when you translate the worlds and characters to other media, and that is a major hurdle; especially under WotC, the focus has been on rulesets that don't translate all that well to any other media. Most of the successes the brand has had in that department came very early on in their ownership of the brand and before they had much of a chance to put too much of their own imprint on it. They seem to be shifting that slowly finally with the new edition, but it's still going to take time to complete that shift, and the rest of the entertainment industry as a whole as well as the tabletop industry is going to continue to compete and evolve as well, so breaking the brand out of its current state is going to remain as tough as ever, even if they do manage to get a solid movie or two eventually. Even regrabbing the throne as king of this little niche is going to be a challenge; though I do expect them to remain competitive, they haven't shown anything that makes me believe they are going to suddenly become the clear champion of tabletop games again.


----------



## Morrus (Jan 13, 2015)

sunshadow21 said:


> The big difference is that Paizo actually seems to be doing it successfully the first time around where WotC has been singing the same tune since buying D&D and has yet to see any sustained success.




The biggest success in the cross-branding attempts by far are the D&D novels, which have frequently appeared on the New York Times bestseller charts.  The next biggest success would be the popular and successful D&D boardgames, including _Lords of Waterdeep_ and _Wrath of Ashardalon _etc.  I think you have to try pretty hard to see an environment where WotC is failing at cross-branding.  They're pretty good at it.  The only major failure is the movies, and even that is far more successful than anyone else in the industry has been!

Paizo's doing well, too, but their novels aren't quite in that league. I don't know how well the comics are doing; I hope they're doing well. The _Adventure Card Game_ is doing very well.  Plushies and mini-mates and stuff aren't in the same league at all.

WotC is definitely the leader in terms of branding success, whatever happens with the RPG itself.


----------



## delericho (Jan 13, 2015)

Morrus said:


> The biggest success in the cross-branding attempts by far are the D&D novels, which have frequently appeared on the New York Times bestseller charts.  The next biggest success would be the popular and successful D&D boardgames, including _Lords of Waterdeep_ and _Wrath of Ashardalon _etc.




Wouldn't the video games, and especially "Baldur's Gate" and "Neverwinter Nights" be second?


----------



## sunshadow21 (Jan 13, 2015)

Morrus said:


> WotC is definitely the leader in terms of branding success, whatever happens with the RPG itself.




For now, but they have long since hit a plateau that growing beyond is going to be tough. The novels are a good example of this; the novel line exists now mostly because of a few legacy characters and authors, not because the line as a whole is doing that well. Remove Drizzt and maybe one or two other characters and suddenly WotC is a lot closer to Paizo's level of success. In the end, for all that they have decent name recognition, they don't really have much in the way of current product, and haven't for some time. A few novels and some boardgames isn't a failure, but it's not anything close to the level of success they keep saying they want to achieve; in the end, they have had some success, but have never really capitalized on any of it. The D&D brand may have more history than Pathfinder or any other rpg in that department, but going forward, I would be hesitant to give the brand any kind of an edge. WotC has brand history, but Paizo has a solid history of making solid business decisions that lead to solid products and the rest of the rpg market in general is far more in tune with the new electronic tools and media than WotC is or will be in the near future. The D&D brand isn't going away any time soon, but it's not very well positioned to sustain it's current position or see any significant growth unless WotC very quickly learns how to capitalize on the successes they do get and make them into something even bigger.


----------



## Morrus (Jan 13, 2015)

delericho said:


> Wouldn't the video games, and especially "Baldur's Gate" and "Neverwinter Nights" be second?




I was thinking more recently, but yes, yes they would.  I guess the current one is _Neverwinter_.


----------



## KirayaTiDrekan (Jan 13, 2015)

Morrus said:


> Mine is Dragonlance done like the LotR movies.




That would be awesome, though I'd rather see Dragonlance done as a tv series like Game of Thrones.  Gives them more room to tell the story without having to cut a bunch of stuff.


----------



## SirAntoine (Jan 13, 2015)

I doubt any big names will work on a D&D movie.


----------



## iwarrior-poet (Jan 13, 2015)

Morrus said:


> Mine is Dragonlance done like the LotR movies.




With all due deference to the Guvnor---I don't think the full Dragonlance Chronicles novels lend themselves well to a movie. Dragons of Autumn Twilight has a nice, straightforward plot and good character development---but after that things get convoluted fast. Explaining the 'Everman' and other odd bits of the overall story (details behind the Dragonlances, Dragon Orbs, Knights of Solamnia etc) would be cumbersome in a movie. As others have posted---it might work in TV series, but I am not sure any studio would pick it up. 

Forgotten Realms might have a chance, if for no other reason than a movie on Drizzt's Origin would have a nice, tight focus (single character building into the Heroes of the Hall) and could dip into the story behind the Drow (which most folks tend to be fascinated with).


----------



## smiteworks (Jan 13, 2015)

I would like to see a return of a Dungeons & Dragons cartoon, rewritten for today's audience and a matching line of toys distributed by Hasbro. I would also love to see WoTC take advantage of the many other Hasbro brands available for fan-service RPGs, if nothing else, for G.I. Joe, Transformers, etc.


----------



## sunshadow21 (Jan 13, 2015)

iwarrior-poet said:


> Forgotten Realms might have a chance, if for no other reason than a movie on Drizzt's Origin would have a nice, tight focus (single character building into the Heroes of the Hall) and could dip into the story behind the Drow (which most folks tend to be fascinated with).





I have my doubts about Forgotten Realms even. You could get a handful of tight, well told stories about specific characters, but tying them into the world or brand as a whole would be really tough without diluting the quality of the character's story. See the Hobbit movies as a good example of what would likely happen. In trying to tell a fuller story beyond the original tale, it ended diluting everything to a certain extent, and that did effect the overall quality of the storytelling as a whole.


----------



## Tyranthraxus (Jan 14, 2015)

Id like them to do the Sojourn series as a Film or films. Its got some politicing.. some action. a Story of innocence, of malice and of betrayal .


----------



## Will Doyle (Jan 14, 2015)

I think Dragonlance could work really well as a movie trilogy. Focus on the main story arc, and accept that change would be essential to make it palatable as a movie series. It's certainly got plenty of epic moments, and a lot of heart.


----------



## dbm (Jan 15, 2015)

Re the GW stock price, UK stocks are quoted in _pence_ not _pounds_ so your values are out by a factor of a hundred.


----------



## painted_klown (Jan 15, 2015)

I think smiteworks has a good idea with the animated series. I feel that if there were to be a well made D&D movie (I would like to see live action ala LOTR), and if it were to be well received, then that would certainly open the floodgates for an animated series that could tell the further exploits of the group introduced in the theatrical film version. 

Have the same party/main characters introduced in the movie be the focus of the animated series. Hasbro could do very will with a toy line, and this would provide a (IMO) a very high level of exposure for D&D that they are not currently getting. If D&D were to become part of current "pop culture" so-to-speak, then that alone will help propel D&D to what could be a never before seen level of popularity. People become emotionally invested in well written characters, and that sentiment can keep viewers tuned in...as well as purchasing product, and talking to their friends about it. This would (hopefully) lead to new players starting up, and get old players to return to the game. 

I must admit, one of the biggest influences in me choosing to DM 5E over Pathfinder (I play in a PF game as well, but didn't buy the core rulebook) was that 5E was so well received, and a lot of the word of mouth about 5E was that it was a nice combination of older editions (for the old school feel) wrapped up in a modern game package. Additionally, the brand name of D&D influenced me as well. If D&D could become part of the mainstream pop-culture, I think many people would find 5E to be an inviting, and FUN game to play. This should lead to books selling well, and 5E having a long and enjoyable lifespan.  

All IMO, of course.


----------



## Malshotfirst (Jan 15, 2015)

My prediction: Paizo comes out with another 10,000 class options, none of which helps Fighters or Rogues. The paizo forumites continue to argue about it while simultaneously being condescending towards anyone who doesn't fit their play style or world view.


----------



## sunshadow21 (Jan 15, 2015)

painted_klown said:


> I think smiteworks has a good idea with the animated series. I feel that if there were to be a well made D&D movie (I would like to see live action ala LOTR), and if it were to be well received, then that would certainly open the floodgates for an animated series that could tell the further exploits of the group introduced in the theatrical film version.
> 
> Have the same party/main characters introduced in the movie be the focus of the animated series. Hasbro could do very will with a toy line, and this would provide a (IMO) a very high level of exposure for D&D that they are not currently getting. If D&D were to become part of current "pop culture" so-to-speak, then that alone will help propel D&D to what could be a never before seen level of popularity. People become emotionally invested in well written characters, and that sentiment can keep viewers tuned in...as well as purchasing product, and talking to their friends about it. This would (hopefully) lead to new players starting up, and get old players to return to the game.
> 
> ...




That could work, but the challenge of tying everything together would still remain. Marvel got away with it because they already had their entire universe more or less connected. WotC has a lot of different IPs and, within the individual IPs, they tend to have a number of divergent characters and story lines that don't automatically have anything to do with each other. In order for that idea to work, they would have to initially pass on using established characters and make all new characters specifically for that party, and hope that the movie would do well enough to get the tv show off the ground long enough to work existing material into the story in a plausible manner. Far from impossible, but no easy task.


----------



## painted_klown (Jan 15, 2015)

sunshadow21 said:


> That could work, but the challenge of tying everything together would still remain. Marvel got away with it because they already had their entire universe more or less connected. WotC has a lot of different IPs and, within the individual IPs, they tend to have a number of divergent characters and story lines that don't automatically have anything to do with each other. In order for that idea to work, they would have to initially pass on using established characters and make all new characters specifically for that party, and hope that the movie would do well enough to get the tv show off the ground long enough to work existing material into the story in a plausible manner. Far from impossible, but no easy task.



I was not aware that the different D&D settings aren't all connected somehow. Still though, they could write a movie that doesn't tie in with any existing storyline, but could set the adventure inside an existing setting (Forgotten Realms, etc). Most of the general population wouldn't have read all (or any) of the books, and wouldn't care if it fit into the "entire D&D cannon" so-to-speak, especially if it is a well made film with good production values, and with a top notch story & characters. 

Of course, I understand all of this is much easier said than done, but I am hopeful the new D&D movie will be done right. Especially because the producers will be very aware that they could turn it into a massive franchise.


----------



## sunshadow21 (Jan 15, 2015)

painted_klown said:


> I was not aware that the different D&D settings aren't all connected somehow. Still though, they could write a movie that doesn't tie in with any existing storyline, but could set the adventure inside an existing setting (Forgotten Realms, etc). Most of the general population wouldn't have read all (or any) of the books, and wouldn't care if it fit into the "entire D&D cannon" so-to-speak, especially if it is a well made film with good production values, and with a top notch story & characters.
> 
> Of course, I understand all of this is much easier said than done, but I am hopeful the new D&D movie will be done right. Especially because the producers will be very aware that they could turn it into a massive franchise.




Like I said, it's far from impossible. It could be done, but it would take the right combo of writer, director, actors, and marketing to get all of the little details right, and the little details will matter, as those are what the existing fans will look for, and those are what will make an official D&D movie stand out from all of the other fantasy movies out there as far as the non-fans are concerned.


----------



## TrippyHippy (Jan 15, 2015)

It’s pure speculation to say how good/bad a D&D movie could be at this stage. Sure, previous movies have been poor, but actually that could said for 95%+ of all fantasy movies (especially before the LotR saga). 

Movie stars will sign up for whatever gives them a good deal, and the D&D brand is no less significant than Transformers, say, or Pirates of the Caribbean. It could work as a TV show also, but what is important is getting a directer and screenwriters that appreciate the importance of brand integrity as well as simply what constitutes good, mass appeal entertainment.


----------



## chibi graz'zt (Jan 16, 2015)

pickin_grinnin said:


> I will be very surprised if they get another D&D movie off the ground, and even more surprised if they do a good job with it.




Then get ready to be very surprised. I happen to know one of the production staff thats already working pre-production on this movie. They are just waiting for legal to settle. More I cannot share.


----------



## delericho (Jan 16, 2015)

sunshadow21 said:


> That could work, but the challenge of tying everything together would still remain. Marvel got away with it because they already had their entire universe more or less connected. WotC has a lot of different IPs and, within the individual IPs, they tend to have a number of divergent characters and story lines that don't automatically have anything to do with each other.




If they're smart, they'll start with something like the Icewind Dale trilogy, which is pretty self-contained but is also set within the larger FR world. Then they can do other stories also set within the FR world (for which there's a handy catalog of novels and comics to draw on). And then they can think about starting to connect those.

Once that's done, they should look at the possibilities of a Ravenloft or Planescape movie. Which comes with a built in link back to the FR if they want to do that. And then they can open the canvas from there.

But, more than anything, they really need to focus on making a good _movie_ first, with any question of the connections between the disparate IP being a _very_ distant concern - if it's even on the radar at all.


----------



## Hussar (Jan 19, 2015)

Considering the amount of traction it has, why not a Baldur's Gate movie?  I mean, you've got a pretty significant built in audience there.  A nice straight forward story line that highlights the Realms and D&D quite well.  It's already got a comic book line and I believe there were novelizations as well.  I could see tapping that for a plot that would be a lot less convoluted than, say, Dragonlance.

Besides, you could have Minsc in there.  And Minsc is good, yes?!


----------



## delericho (Jan 19, 2015)

Hussar said:


> Considering the amount of traction it has, why not a Baldur's Gate movie?




That's a good shout. Though if anything the plot may be that bit _too_ simple. Still, I guess it's not that hard to add complexity; it seems to be removing it that's difficult.



> I could see tapping that for a plot that would be a lot less convoluted than, say, Dragonlance.




Is the plot of Dragonlance _really_ that convoluted? Honestly, it seems that here (and with the FR examples as well), people seem to be making a mountain out of a molehill - if they decide to adapt some of the novels for a film, they'll work almost exclusively from those novels. They're not going to set out to create the definitive Dragonlance (or FR) film to capture every detail of everything ever written for the setting!

Surely the biggest barrier to a Dragonlance film is the awful animated effort of just a few years ago?


----------



## pickin_grinnin (Jan 19, 2015)

chibi graz'zt said:


> Then get ready to be very surprised. I happen to know one of the production staff thats already working pre-production on this movie. They are just waiting for legal to settle. More I cannot share.




We've been down that road a lot of times in the past 4 decades.  Nothing in Hollywood is a sure thing until the movie actually gets made and marketed.


----------



## chibi graz'zt (Jan 19, 2015)

Of couse, but I can confirm they are pre-producing a D&D movie. Your cynicism is noted ;-)


----------

