# A Dance with Dragons discussion (SPOILERS!)



## Krug (Jul 25, 2011)

Ok think a few people have finished the book, so this is a spoiler-laden discussion of the book.

Overall, definitely way better than *A Feast of Crows*, but still frustrating and nowhere as good as the first three volumes. Little resolution for most plotlines, the story doesn't really close as one would think it should, and a lot of anti climatic moments. Notably the showdown between Stannis and the Boltons at Winterfell. Maybe it'll come up in the next book, but that's a long wait.

The last few chapters are brutal though, and the big question is..

[sblock]
Is Jon Snow dead? 

Martin has a tendency for last-minute saves, and even one magical resurrection. So is it going to be the case here? A lot of threads about Jon, such as his mother, are yet to be resolved, so part of my instinct says no, he's not.

So what now for Daenerys? 

I hope Martin isn't going to spend more time on the East. The intrigue there certainly isn't as interesting as what's going on in Westeros. I expected Tyrion to come across her and bring her back finally, but ... nope. 

Stannis?

I don't think such a semi-major character will just die off-screen like that, and we only have Ramsay's letter as evidence. 

Biggest disappointment was the lack of Littlefinger, but glad to have lots of Tyrion. 
[/sblock]

I'm sceptical that Martin can finish things in two volumes. While it isn't getting more bloated, it's still not really deflating enough. His writing is still great, and the characters and cultures are certainly unique and intriguing. I guess I wanted more plotlines to be resolved, and even all those in the past two volumes, such as those surrounding the Drowning God and the new players in the Game, don't advance much. 

Well those are my initial thoughts after finishing ADwD. Hope it's not another 7 years until the next book..


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## Raunalyn (Jul 25, 2011)

The way I see it, I think this is just the setup for the final two volumes. He's putting all of his pieces into place so that he can start the action for the grand finale.

There is some good news. He mentioned that there were several chapters that he had to cut to put in Winds of Winter. So, he has already started the next book. It is my hope that the success of the television series will light a fire under him so that we don't have to wait 14 more years for the conclusion.

As to Jon:

[sblock]
I don't think he's dead. If he is, I have a feeling that he will be getting one of those miraculous resurrections that we've seen the Red Priests give.
[/sblock]

Stannis, I'm not so worried about. I never really liked him as a character, and I always felt that he was a means to a end (I think the character we need to keep an eye on is Melisandre...she's important).


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## Krug (Jul 26, 2011)

Yeah I hope we don't have to wait too long for The Winds of Winter. Frankly though, with the supernatural elements so prominent in AFoC and ADwD, they can't quite match up with the first three, where it was pretty much a very low-magic setting. Secrets and sabotage were the order of the day, rather than sorcery. 

I guess there are various escape routes for Jon, including 'jumping' to Ghost. I'm sure if he does survive he'll come out scarred. I enjoyed his chapters most, but like his father, in staying honorable and refusing to play the game, he exposed himself. 

There's a whole lot of info dumping in this volume as well, most of which made my eyes glaze over.

To me the two main threats are what's coming from the North, and the struggle for the throne. The two still don't seem to come together; the dragons seem to be the most natural solution to the Others (and other thingies), but will Martin be that predictable?


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## Cor Azer (Jul 26, 2011)

I'm fifty-fifty on how Jon survives, but I do think he's dead in some way. Melisandre should certainly have the same power as Thoros to bring someone back to life, and even Beric did it once with next to no training (although he had been a recipient several times).

The other option is that Jon wargs into Ghost to survive. All the foreshadowing of Varamyr in the prologue was setting up the warging into a beast so it has to be relevant for one of the Stark kids - but since Bran seems to be going the greenseer route, that leaves it for Jon or Arya.

I can't recall the exact place, but in one of the Melisandre chapters, she mentions in a vision of Jon - man, wolf, man; which seems to edge it a bit towards the warging. Then it becomes a question of how (or who) Jon wargs back into to become a man again. One possibility is one of the frozen corpses in the ice cells, and then using one of Mel's glamours to make himself resemble, well, himself.

Ramsay's letter has too much information to not be from Ramsay (ie, Reek), but it's strange that in the defeat of Stannis he didn't recover Theon, so something isn't going well there. Also strange that Roose would let him send off such a letter, so something fishy goes on at Winterfell.

I don't think Stannis is dead. I am considering the idea that his forces were routed. If Ramsay's letter has some truth to it (which I sure it does have some), I think Stannis' forces were caught with their pants down, but that the Ironborn somehow managed to spirit off Stannis with the Braavosi banker's help. Barring delusion on Ramsay's part, that's the only scenario I envision where where the Boltons win handily enough that they recover Lightbringer but fail to recapture Theon.

Also, I love the idea of this big battle not being directly shown - it positively screams incoherent nightmare memories for one or more surviving characters - a confused mayhem of white death.

As for Meereen, I see it splitting. Dany and Drogon are going with Khal Jhaqo to Vaes Dothrak, where Dany will cow the dosh khaleen, and then continue east past Asshai and across the Sunset Sea, landing in the west of Westeros. Victarion will be the match that lights the powderkeg that is Meereen, with the dragons bringing everything down. I suspect Barristan to die ('cause he knows too much history, and we can't have people learning that), but Tyrion escapes yet again (the Gods are not done with their butt-monkey) to join up with Aegon and Connington. This removes all the eastern folk from Dany's group, leaving only those who want to be in Westeros heading there, and finally, brutally, slays Kong.

I don't mind no Littlefinger - we know from Feast what he's doing - slowly dismantling the Lords Declarant, who agreed to give him a year to set things right. I suspect a very early chapter in Winds of Winter will be the Sansa/Harry wedding, so that the book can explore the mustering of the Vale, and the reactions of the rest of Westeros.


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## Krug (Jul 26, 2011)

Hmm good points. I don't think it'll be as tidy, and I'm not sure why Dany is going to head to Westeros still. There's just no pull factor yet. 

A pretty good analysis of the series:
Black Gate  Blog Archive  Ruminations on Ice and Fire



> I think Martin’s playing about with other notions as well, related to his use of point-of-view and his mosaic structure. For example, there’s an interesting passage in the new book where a historically-minded character questions the real viability of violence as a way of solving problems; and, without getting too deeply into that specific passage, I do think the books are concerned with the futility of violence. Also, in a related way, with the futility of history; with violence spawned by a certain understanding of history, with stories about feuds and ancestors and cultures that set people and armies against one another. Words are wind; but winds can drive ships and uproot trees. Words can drive armies and uproot kingdoms.
> 
> I think all of this boils down to themes of identity. You can see it in the way Martin handles his structure. He identifies the viewpoint character for each of his chapters by using the character’s name as the chapter title; in the last couple of books he’s played about with that, identifying chapters with names that characters have had forced upon them, or indeed using roles instead of names, so that he calls into question the identity of the characters — and makes the reader wonder both who they really are, and who they think they are. Martin gets at some remarkable effects in doing so. A partial spoiler for the new book: one character, who I’d frankly never been especially interested in, has a particularly compelling arc which is highlighted by the different names that open his viewpoint chapters, reflecting the different ways he thinks about himself. This character works through the identities forced upon him over the course of a kind of healing back to something like what he used to be, with the result that when the name we used to know him by appears once again, it’s almost a stand-up-and-cheer moment; a confirmation that somebody who’s been through all kinds of hell has nevertheless recovered.
> 
> ...


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## Cor Azer (Jul 27, 2011)

Krug said:


> Hmm good points. I don't think it'll be as tidy, and I'm not sure why Dany is going to head to Westeros still. There's just no pull factor yet.
> 
> A pretty good analysis of the series:
> Black Gate  Blog Archive  Ruminations on Ice and Fire




Dany's motivation for returning to Westerosi? Not that hard in my mind - she's still young, ruled more by emotion than logic, and although she's toughened a lot in the few years of the books' events, you also need to remember that Viserys spent even longer drilling into her head that they would return and take back their birthright; that's some powerful conditioning to overcome.

A massacre in Meereen could be exactly what she needs though - she's too compassionate to abandon all her charges but taking them all with her would be far too difficult. If they were all stripped away from her though, particularly if she wasn't in a position to help (such as being stuck with the dosh khaleen), a little dragonfire revenge would be all that was left keeping her in Essos. And since part of that revenge would be against Qarth, she'd already be heading east nearer Asshai and possibly crossing the Subset Sea.


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## Remus Lupin (Aug 3, 2011)

Finished it last night, and of course wish I had the next volume sitting in front of me right now. That said, I think it's time for GRRM to start tying together these many loose threads, and bring all of the action back to Westeros. I was glad at least to see that Griff had begun the assault. I'll be interested to see what Dorne does in response, particularly in light of Quentyn's actions.

It was good to see Varys reappear, though I was sorry to see what happened to Kevin as a result. I had to say that I had some hopes for Kevin serving as Regent, since he was milder than Tywin and saner than Cersei.

I'm beyond trying to guess what Martin has in store for Jon, but I hope he comes back in some identifiable form, and not just as a Warg. It's been sad to see the last remnants of the Stark family disappear completely into the mist.

I too wonder what really took place at Winterfell. As someone noted, Ramsey's note reveals to much to make me think it's all a bluff, but that again leads to the question of where Theon is, what happened to Stannis, and what took place after the last Asha chapter.


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## Cor Azer (Aug 4, 2011)

Remus Lupin said:


> It was good to see Varys reappear, though I was sorry to see what happened to Kevin as a result. I had to say that I had some hopes for Kevin serving as Regent, since he was milder than Tywin and saner than Cersei.




The more I think about it , the more I realize Kevan had to be removed. He was saner than Cersei yes, and obviously more than just a yes man to Tywin.

However, he would have easily limited Cersei's influence on Tommen, and with the Tyrells distracted by Euron on the Mander, would have had an easy time adjusting to meet Aegon's arrival in the Stormlands.

But with Kevan out of the picture, the Tyrells have a bigger at at court, with Cersei still trying to manipulate Tommen behind the scenes, and now two Sand Snakes come in to stir the pot even more, particularly with the possibility of Dorne throwing in with Targsryen (although if they're too blatant, then Tyene and Nymeria are hostages, which may be Doran's backup plan for keeping their trouble along out of Dorne). A game of cyvasse indeed.


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## Remus Lupin (Aug 4, 2011)

A couple of other thoughts that I had reflecting on the book yesterday.

First of all, what did Bowen Marsh think he was accomplishing? Did he not imagine that Tormund Giantsbane might have something to say about what he did to Jon? How did he think he was going to handle a berserk Wun Wun? And really, what was the sequence of events that led to Wun Wun's freak out? I think I know but I hope we get it explained to us.

Also A couple of things surprised me, particularly the fact that he pushed Cersei's trial off another volume (apparently set to happen early on, but considering the events of the epilogue, I'm doubtful). I'm also curious to see what will happen with Jaime and Brienne. And who among the apparent dead will stay dead. On that note, I felt genuinely sorry for Quentyn Martell.

Finally, I have to say, I'm over the Ironborn. Did their POV chapters lend ANYTHING to ANYTHING? He could have easily cut a couple of hundred pages out just by ridding us of Asha, Theon, and Victarion.  It's padding that absolutely DOESN'T need to be there. I mean, what did Victarion and Asha DO? Nothing! That material better pay off for us at some point.


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## Remus Lupin (Aug 4, 2011)

Cor Azer said:


> The more I think about it , the more I realize Kevan had to be removed. He was saner than Cersei yes, and obviously more than just a yes man to Tywin.
> 
> However, he would have easily limited Cersei's influence on Tommen, and with the Tyrells distracted by Euron on the Mander, would have had an easy time adjusting to meet Aegon's arrival in the Stormlands.
> 
> But with Kevan out of the picture, the Tyrells have a bigger at at court, with Cersei still trying to manipulate Tommen behind the scenes, and now two Sand Snakes come in to stir the pot even more, particularly with the possibility of Dorne throwing in with Targsryen (although if they're too blatant, then Tyene and Nymeria are hostages, which may be Doran's backup plan for keeping their trouble along out of Dorne). A game of cyvasse indeed.




Agreed on all fronts. And I think we're now finally getting a picture of the long game that Varys has been running. His goal has clearly been to get the Targaryans back in power ever since they were deposed. We've pretty much known this since book I I guess. But we now see that he had a number of different contingency plans. First he had Aegon in reserve, then Viserys, and the deal to marry Quentyn to Daneyres.

But my question as a reader is this: Should I WANT the Targaryans back in power? Classical literary theory says the end of the drama should resolve the threads and result in the restoration of order. There are many ways to get there, and I think many of us have assumed for a long time that it would end with Dany on the throne. But even if I could support that outcome, depending on how it was handled, should I be rooted for the Targaryans IN GENERAL to regain power? Particularly if they're doing so through the offices of Varys? It all goes back to something Jorah said in the first volume I guess, the nobles play their game of thrones, and the small folks pay the price. Who ultimately sits the Iron Throne may not matter nearly as much as we've been led to believe.


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## Mustrum_Ridcully (Aug 5, 2011)

Remus Lupin said:


> Agreed on all fronts. And I think we're now finally getting a picture of the long game that Varys has been running. His goal has clearly been to get the Targaryans back in power ever since they were deposed. We've pretty much known this since book I I guess. But we now see that he had a number of different contingency plans. First he had Aegon in reserve, then Viserys, and the deal to marry Quentyn to Daneyres.
> 
> But my question as a reader is this: Should I WANT the Targaryans back in power? Classical literary theory says the end of the drama should resolve the threads and result in the restoration of order. There are many ways to get there, and I think many of us have assumed for a long time that it would end with Dany on the throne. But even if I could support that outcome, depending on how it was handled, should I be rooted for the Targaryans IN GENERAL to regain power? Particularly if they're doing so through the offices of Varys? It all goes back to something Jorah said in the first volume I guess, the nobles play their game of thrones, and the small folks pay the price. Who ultimately sits the Iron Throne may not matter nearly as much as we've been led to believe.



Well, I got the impression that with the King's death in the first book, everything went to . Lots of people have died since then. If he had lived, the only bad thing that would have happened would have been that the crown makes more debt, it seems. 

Admittedly, Daenerys would still be around and would eventually cross the sea for conquest. It could very well be that even that would have been only a reprieve then -  but it would have been a reprieve, and the common folk would have been spared a few years of suffering.

I guess the problem is - the Game of Thrones will be played, no matter what.


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## Remus Lupin (Aug 5, 2011)

Actually, thinking back on AFFC, I realize I misremembered. The original deal was to marry Arianne to Viserys, until Khal Drogo gave him his crown, thus the fall back position of marrying Quentyn to Danyeres, which is at least part of why Dany doesn't really have a lot of use for Quentyn when he finally shows up.


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## Cor Azer (Aug 5, 2011)

Remus Lupin said:


> Agreed on all fronts. And I think we're now finally getting a picture of the long game that Varys has been running. His goal has clearly been to get the Targaryans back in power ever since they were deposed. We've pretty much known this since book I I guess. But we now see that he had a number of different contingency plans. First he had Aegon in reserve, then Viserys, and the deal to marry Quentyn to Daneyres.
> 
> But my question as a reader is this: Should I WANT the Targaryans back in power? Classical literary theory says the end of the drama should resolve the threads and result in the restoration of order. There are many ways to get there, and I think many of us have assumed for a long time that it would end with Dany on the throne. But even if I could support that outcome, depending on how it was handled, should I be rooted for the Targaryans IN GENERAL to regain power? Particularly if they're doing so through the offices of Varys? It all goes back to something Jorah said in the first volume I guess, the nobles play their game of thrones, and the small folks pay the price. Who ultimately sits the Iron Throne may not matter nearly as much as we've been led to believe.




I pretty much agree, except that I never expected Dany to sit the Iron Throne, at least not for long. Introducing Aegon sort of solves that since he has a better claim than Dany. Of course, the "return" of Aegon and Connington never really surprised me - all talk of them had a strong feeling of "we think they died by not sure" - but the how they returned was unexpected.

Still, I'm actually of the thought that at the end of the series the Seven Kingdoms will be restored to seven actual kingdoms. Although again, not sure on the how.


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## Remus Lupin (Aug 5, 2011)

Yeah, I think Robb had it right from the beginning: KING IN THE NORTH! KING IN THE NORTH!


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## DemonKing (Aug 8, 2011)

Well why does it have to be Dany or Aegon or sits the Iron Throne when the dust clears?

Barristan mentions in ADwD that the Mad King (Aerys) was infatuated with Tywin's wife (and cousin) and just before Tyrion kills him in ASoS Tywin says "you are not my son" - plus he has the white-blonde hair and a purple eye.

Also there are theories that John was actually the bastard son of Raeghar and Eddard Stark's sister (hence why he looks like a Stark).

There seem to be Targs everywhere if you just look close enough!


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## Cor Azer (Aug 8, 2011)

DemonKing said:


> Well why does it have to be Dany or Aegon or sits the Iron Throne when the dust clears?
> 
> Barristan mentions in ADwD that the Mad King (Aerys) was infatuated with Tywin's wife (and cousin) and just before Tyrion kills him in ASoS Tywin says "you are not my son" - plus he has the white-blonde hair and a purple eye.
> 
> ...




Have to be? Well, it doesn't have to be. But currently, neither of those other suspected Targaryens have any interest on the throne. Tyrion just wants Casterly Rock, and after the smear campaign against him, I don't think even he would think he'd be a popular king. Jon believes in honor and duty, so unless something cropped up that makes it his duty to rule, I don't see it happening - particularly when better claimants exist (note, even if R+L=J, he's still a bastard, so no claim)


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## Taelorn76 (Sep 6, 2011)

A little late to the party but I just finished the book. 

A few things that have been pointed out already really stunned me, 



Spoiler



Jon being stabbed


, but when I think about what GRRM has done in the past this should not have come as much of a shock. 

I will tag the following just in case
[sblock]
In one of Selmy's last POVs, he mentioned the tourney where he lost to Rhaeger, and how if he would have won there was a woman he would have given the flower to. He then went on to say that she ended up with a Stark. Could this be another clue as to who Jon's mother may have been?[/sblock]

All in all pretty good book, I do wish there was a little less supernatural stuff going on though.


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## Fast Learner (Sep 6, 2011)

Re: Jon Snow's parentage, indeed. In fact, the clues are so incredibly strong that it's downright unlikely that his parents *aren't*


Spoiler



Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark


. See Chris Holden's essay at Tower of the Hand for a very compelling list of clues and reasoning. 

Great site, btw, it allows you to select the latest book you've read and only provides spoilers through that book.


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## Cor Azer (Sep 7, 2011)

Taelorn76 said:


> A little late to the party but I just finished the book.
> 
> A few things that have been pointed out already really stunned me,
> 
> ...




I can't recall the exact passage, but I think he was referring to Ashara Dayne, who was enamoured with Ned.



Taelorn76 said:


> All in all pretty good book, I do wish there was a little less supernatural stuff going on though.




Don't expect that; one of the themes of the books is the return of magic.


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## Taelorn76 (Sep 13, 2011)

Cor Azer said:


> Don't expect that; one of the themes of the books is the return of magic.




Not so much against the return of magic; just not too keen on the who undead thing. I really like all the political strategy.


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## Wednesday Boy (Sep 13, 2011)

Krug said:


> Hmm good points. I don't think it'll be as tidy, and I'm not sure why Dany is going to head to Westeros still. There's just no pull factor yet.




As she's wandering through the Dothraki Sea she dwells on how she has no obligation to Meereen because it isn't her home.  But she does see Westeros is her home and her birthright.



Cor Azer said:


> Ramsay's letter has too much information to not be from Ramsay (ie, Reek), but it's strange that in the defeat of Stannis he didn't recover Theon, so something isn't going well there.




I think the defeat of Stannis parts were a bluff since he never recovered Theon.  I'm guessing he made the bluff so his threats of coming after Jon would seem credible and encourage Jon to come to him.



DemonKing said:


> Also there are theories that John was actually the bastard son of Raeghar and Eddard Stark's sister (hence why he looks like a Stark).




That's what I've theorized too.  At some point someone told Jon who his mother was, which debunked this theory but that's assuming the character who revealed it (I forget who it was) was telling the truth.  And only a fool believes everything GRRM's characters say!



Taelorn76 said:


> Not so much against the return of magic; just not too keen on the who undead thing. I really like all the political strategy.




I love the political strategizing as well and I find it's only enhanced by the inclusion of the undead threat.  The undead adds a terrible, unwavering urgency that looms outside of the political landscape.  Not only do the heroes have to deal with the vipers and schemers in court and on the battlefield, they have to do it quickly before the outside threat is upon them.


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## Cor Azer (Sep 14, 2011)

Wednesday Boy said:


> As she's wandering through the Dothraki Sea she dwells on how she has no obligation to Meereen because it isn't her home.  But she does see Westeros is her home and her birthright.




That's possible. My other thought is that while she and Drogon get taken to Vaes Dothrak, Victarion somehow begins taking Rhaegal and Viseryon to Westeros. Then Dany's goal becomes part rescue mission for her two children.



Wednesday Boy said:


> I think the defeat of Stannis parts were a bluff since he never recovered Theon.  I'm guessing he made the bluff so his threats of coming after Jon would seem credible and encourage Jon to come to him.




Unless he caught Mance, and Mance turned on Jon (admittedly, not a stretch), I don't really see what Ramsey's beef with Jon is; at least not to that angry extent.

Also, while it would have worked had Jon not been shanked, why would someone think taunting the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch would get him to march south?

Something fishy...



Wednesday Boy said:


> That's what I've theorized too.  At some point someone told Jon who his mother was, which debunked this theory but that's assuming the character who revealed it (I forget who it was) was telling the truth.  And only a fool believes everything GRRM's characters say!




Edric Dayne refers to Jon as his milk brother to Arya, which just means the same woman breastfed them; as for parentage, it strongly resembles a particular breed of fish tainted rouge.



Wednesday Boy said:


> I love the political strategizing as well and I find it's only enhanced by the inclusion of the undead threat.  The undead adds a terrible, unwavering urgency that looms outside of the political landscape.  Not only do the heroes have to deal with the vipers and schemers in court and on the battlefield, they have to do it quickly before the outside threat is upon them.




In addition, with the threat so geographically distant, Martin can still play with those who disbelieve such nonsense. Comeuppances are so much fun.


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## Remus Lupin (Sep 14, 2011)

All true, but if he's going to bring the threat from the north down to the south, he'd better quit dilly-dallying. Since he's only (supposed to) have two more volumes to wrap this up. While I see some of the pieces moving into place for the end game, the North still seems like an awfully far way away from the rest of the action.


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## Wednesday Boy (Sep 14, 2011)

Cor Azer said:


> Unless he caught Mance, and Mance turned on Jon (admittedly, not a stretch), I don't really see what Ramsey's beef with Jon is; at least not to that angry extent.
> 
> Also, while it would have worked had Jon not been shanked, why would someone think taunting the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch would get him to march south?
> 
> Something fishy...




I'd have to re-read Ramsay's letter but my assumption was that Ramsay caught Mance and turtured him until he revealed why he was at Winterfell.  Since Mance was there to get the girl and send her to Jon, Ramsay thinks he has her.  That was his beef with Jon.

And I thought the letter was a threat rather than a taunt to goad Jon into marching south.  To bolster his threat Ramsay lied about destroying Stannis to prove his might and so Jon would feel like there was no one to help him.  Jon would either have to give back Jayne and Theon or be attacked by Ramsay's strong army.



Remus Lupin said:


> All true, but if he's going to bring the threat from the north down to the south, he'd better quit dilly-dallying. Since he's only (supposed to) have two more volumes to wrap this up. While I see some of the pieces moving into place for the end game, the North still seems like an awfully far way away from the rest of the action.




Dilly-dallying is right--especially for the folks who are watching the tv series!  Unless he can speed up writing the last two books the series will catch up with the tv series.


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## Remus Lupin (Sep 14, 2011)

What you say is true, but I meant more dilly dallying in terms of the plot. I am assuming that as Winter moves in and the world gets colder, the threat from the north will begin to move inexorably south. But given Martin's approach to the narrative, it's going to involve a lot of pages to get them down past the neck, while at the same time keeping us abreast of what's happening to all of the other threads that he's got dangling.


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## Wednesday Boy (Sep 14, 2011)

Yeah, I follow you.


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## Cor Azer (Sep 15, 2011)

Remus Lupin said:


> What you say is true, but I meant more dilly dallying in terms of the plot. I am assuming that as Winter moves in and the world gets colder, the threat from the north will begin to move inexorably south. But given Martin's approach to the narrative, it's going to involve a lot of pages to get them down past the neck, while at the same time keeping us abreast of what's happening to all of the other threads that he's got dangling.




I'm not too worried about the time needed for the Others to be a credible threat below the Neck - all you need is a few hundred (?) / thousand (?) / hundred thousand (?) refugees fleeing from the North in advance, right into wartorn Riverlands, on top of a hard hitting winter that didn't allow for proper harvest; the Others don't have to ve the sole danger.

Also, several character threads will need some significant travel time to get where "we" expect them to go; if Martin can weave the story such that many of these hsppen at the same time, the chronology won't feel as stretched and squashed.


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## NewJeffCT (Sep 15, 2011)

Wednesday Boy said:


> I think the defeat of Stannis parts were a bluff since he never recovered Theon.  I'm guessing he made the bluff so his threats of coming after Jon would seem credible and encourage Jon to come to him.
> .




That would be plausible if Ramsay didn't know about Mance and his spearwives.  However, in the book, one of them took a pair of fatal crossbow bolts as they escaped, and I think the letter says he has all six women that came with Mance.  [edited to add - never mind, re-read the letter and it implies all six women are dead... my bad]

I also think Jon is alive in ghost - the prologue kind of foretells that, I think.

My question is - the wall holds the Others back with magic.  How do the Others get beyond the wall to go South into the North & beyond?  Does somebody really find that horn and blow it to destroy the wall?


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## Fast Learner (Sep 15, 2011)

NewJeffCT said:


> My question is - the wall holds the Others back with magic.  How do the Others get beyond the wall to go South into the North & beyond?  Does somebody really find that horn and blow it to destroy the wall?



Some other possibilities I've considered:
The wall is proof against the Others but different magic -- from the Red God, or dragon fire, or other magic from Essos like that in Quarth -- might take down the wall, or enough of it.
 
While the Others themselves cannot cross the wall, the wights they create obviously can, and stay animated in the wall and south of it; with the massive creation of new wights in the various events in the latter part of the book, an army of creatures that can only be stopped by fire or total dismemberment might be all the Others would ever need, especially if the south doesn't get its crap together.
 
The story that the magic of the wall prevents the Others from crossing simply isn't true; rather, the great efforts of Azor Ahai and a bunch of obsidian blades did enough damage and sufficiently drove them back that they haven't been ready to attack again until now. 8,000 years of oral tradition and some copied scrolls and books (at best) is a long time to get things wrong. (*Edit: I just remembered that Coldhands was unable to cross the wall, making this much less likely*.)
 
Related, the Others attack when the cycle that creates especially long and dark winters reaches a point of maximum length, something that just hasn't happened for 8,000 years, and the time is again come. Who knows how time passes for them, perhaps a few millennia isn't that long. The wall appears to have been effective simply because it's never before been the right time. (*Edit, see above*.)
There are plenty of other possibilities, I'm sure, but those occur to me now.


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## NewJeffCT (Sep 15, 2011)

since the coming winter is supposed to be epic in nature, and regular winters bring snows that are 100 feet deep to the North, it's also possible that the snows could top the wall...


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## Cor Azer (Sep 15, 2011)

NewJeffCT said:


> since the coming winter is supposed to be epic in nature, and regular winters bring snows that are 100 feet deep to the North, it's also possible that the snows could top the wall...




It also strikes me that there must be more to the story of the Wall holding back the Others, because in the dead of winter, it shouldn't be too hard for an undead force to fross the (near?) frozen waters of either the Bay of Ice in the west (past Westwatch-by-the-Brige - westernmost fort on the Wall) or the Shivering Sea in the east (near Eastwatch-by-the-Sea - easternmost fort). The Others are definitely showing intelligence, and it's not like they need to worry about supply chains.


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## NewJeffCT (Sep 15, 2011)

Cor Azer said:


> It also strikes me that there must be more to the story of the Wall holding back the Others, because in the dead of winter, it shouldn't be too hard for an undead force to fross the (near?) frozen waters of either the Bay of Ice in the west (past Westwatch-by-the-Brige - westernmost fort on the Wall) or the Shivering Sea in the east (near Eastwatch-by-the-Sea - easternmost fort). The Others are definitely showing intelligence, and it's not like they need to worry about supply chains.




True - if the wall was holding the others and the wights back, it would seem the Night's Watch is only there to stop the wildings, since theoretically the wall could not be breached by the undead.

However, the Night's Watch has the 3 horn blasts signaling Others (1 blast for rangers returning, two for wildings and three for The Others)

I just hope GRRM can write the last two books in a more timely fashion than the previous two.  I had to re-read the entire series this year just so I could remember all the characters, since it had been a decade since I read *A Storm of Swords*.  If he goes beyond 2013 or 2014, I'll probably have to do that again.  (Jorah Mormont, Jeor Mormont, Aly Mormont, Maege Mormont... I had forgotten that Ser Jorah was the son of the Old Bear.  Heck, I had forgotten Jamie had become likeable it had been so long.)


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## Mark CMG (Sep 17, 2011)

Here's something -


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## Cor Azer (Sep 17, 2011)

NewJeffCT said:


> I just hope GRRM can write the last two books in a more timely fashion than the previous two.  I had to re-read the entire series this year just so I could remember all the characters, since it had been a decade since I read *A Storm of Swords*.  If he goes beyond 2013 or 2014, I'll probably have to do that again.  (Jorah Mormont, Jeor Mormont, Aly Mormont, Maege Mormont... I had forgotten that Ser Jorah was the son of the Old Bear.  Heck, I had forgotten Jamie had become likeable it had been so long.)




I'm confident the wait won't be as long. A few years still probably, but not the wait we had for Feast and Dance.

I'm of the opinion that the reason the last two books took so long was because of Martin's "last minute" shift - ie, the pacing for all the events changed once he decided to forgo the infamous "five year gap". Thet're big books, so would have taken a while anyways, but that change required him to rethink almost everything, and likely added tons of time by itself.

Upcoming books shouldn't have that problem, at the very least.


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## NewJeffCT (Sep 17, 2011)

OK, I have a question as well.  I re-read the end of Selmy's last chapter.  The trebuchets from the besieging Yunkai were flinging corpses.  Were those the corpses of the hostages, including Dany's beloved Daario?  Or, were they people just killed by the Pale Mare, and the Yunkish were hoping to spread disease & discord within Meereen?

Or both?

(BTW, Selmy rocks - I hope he gets a death worthy of a knight...fat chance, but I can hope.)


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## Wednesday Boy (Sep 17, 2011)

I had both thoughts for what bodies were being thrown by the trebuchets as well.  I haven't re-read it but didn't Selmy feel dread like the bodies spelled the end of the city?  That made me think they must have been corpses killed by the pale mare.


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## NewJeffCT (Sep 17, 2011)

Wednesday Boy said:


> I had both thoughts for what bodies were being thrown by the trebuchets as well.  I haven't re-read it but didn't Selmy feel dread like the bodies spelled the end of the city?  That made me think they must have been corpses killed by the pale mare.




I think it was the Green Grace that expressed horror, but it wasn't clear if it was in response to her proposal and sending the hostages back via trebuchet... or the diseased corpses.  They could be attacking as well, possibly hearing of Selmy's upcoming attack.


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## Wednesday Boy (Sep 17, 2011)

NewJeffCT said:


> I think it was the Green Grace that expressed horror, but it wasn't clear if it was in response to her proposal and sending the hostages back via trebuchet... or the diseased corpses. They could be attacking as well, possibly hearing of Selmy's upcoming attack.




Ah, gotcha.  I couldn't remember if there was a "Bodies?!  The horror, the horror!" tone or a "Bodies?!  Now the city's doomed to catch the plague." tone.


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## Cor Azer (Sep 18, 2011)

Wednesday Boy said:


> I had both thoughts for what bodies were being thrown by the trebuchets as well.  I haven't re-read it but didn't Selmy feel dread like the bodies spelled the end of the city?  That made me think they must have been corpses killed by the pale mare.




I always figured it was corpses of pale mare victims.


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## Remus Lupin (Sep 18, 2011)

See, and I simply assumed they were the bodies of the hostages.


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## Cor Azer (Sep 18, 2011)

Remus Lupin said:


> See, and I simply assumed they were the bodies of the hostages.




I don't recall if there was a particular passage that solidified my idea, but I think it cones down to Selmy's soldier dispassion - he was never really close to any of the hostages, but sees protecting the city for Dany as his duty, and while an encamped army is an enemy he knows (even if difficult to fight), citywide disease was always a matter for septons and maesters - definitely outside his skills and training.


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