# Ukraine invasion



## trappedslider

Instead of clogging up the hive thread, I hope it's okay that I started this thread to share news and other info regarding the war.



Aeson said:


> I heard an announcement that they were forming a legion for foreign fighters that want to join. Honestly, I too have thought about it. As silly as it sounds coming from me. I feel it would finally give my life or death some meaning. If I somehow survived I would seek to stay and help. If I died then hopefully it would mean someone else would live. I'm so overweight and unhealthy I would be laughed out of most situations. Maybe they're desperate enough to let me die for them.
> 
> All I need to know is to point the noisy end of the gun at the bad guys.



There are other ways you can help, like via donating to Ukraine's crypto wallet 


or Want to support the people in Ukraine? Here's how you can help


----------



## Zardnaar

Thought about starting this thread figured it would get closed.


----------



## Parmandur

Polenta., I'm  pro-Ukraine, but this might be a violation of board rules.


----------



## Aeson

I hope it doesn't get closed. This is potentially a world altering event. While political, it goes beyond politics.


----------



## South by Southwest

Aeson said:


> I hope it doesn't get closed. *This is potentially a world altering event.* While political, it goes beyond politics.



True. I wouldn't even say "potentially" anymore: I think they're past that now.

Still, I've a nasty hunch Parmandur might be right.


----------



## Zardnaar

Derp.


----------



## trappedslider

Well the Ukrainian Navy is saying that the defenders who upon being told to surrender responded by saying 'F you"  are alive and not dead as originally  thought Ukrainian soldiers on Snake Island who told off Russian warship may be alive


----------



## Zardnaar

trappedslider said:


> Well the Ukrainian Navy is saying that the defenders who upon being told to surrender responded by saying 'F you"  are alive and not dead as originally  thought Ukrainian soldiers on Snake Island who told off Russian warship may be alive




 There's a lot of BS floating round eg Ghost of Kyiv. 

Propaganda
 
 Soviet Union Supreme


----------



## AnotherGuy

Well I feel this thread should get locked as this is a political thread and I would suspect just like the pandemic thread, only one vision will be permitted. Consensus is highly unlikely on this issue.


----------



## Thunderfoot

As long as pontificating on the evil/righteousness of either side isn't the goal, amd just information is imparted, I don't see it being a major issue.  Once we get people saying X is right, Y is wrong.  Yeah, then it gets political, otherwise, its just news.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Thunderfoot said:


> As long as pontificating on the evil/righteousness of either side isn't the goal, amd just information is imparted, I don't see it being a major issue.  Once we get people saying X is right, Y is wrong.  Yeah, then it gets political, otherwise, its just news.



That is unlikely judgement calls have already been made above on what news is considered propaganda and what is not.


----------



## Thunderfoot

AnotherGuy said:


> That is unlikely judgement calls have already been made above on what news is considered propaganda and what is not.



we can HOPE.


----------



## TheSword

The 6,000 strong WFRP Discord (Ratters Guild) recently reversed its no-politics position on this matter after realizing it had dozens of members living in Ukraine. I hope we can understand that some things - like Covid, and the right not bombed in your home - transcend politics.

It would be good for us to have a place where we can show solidarity with Ukrainian RPGers and their families at this really difficult time. As well as solidarity for Russian’s that are suffering from the sanctions or effects of the invasion dispite not wanting the invasion either.

I can’t believe EN World would not show support for Ukraine as it is being invaded or worse try to stay neutral. As if neutrality is possible when this has happened. If it makes it easier this could be  ring fenced.



Spoiler: Ukrainian Charities







I’m not vouching for these charities just sharing what was shared by the Ratters. Do your research.


----------



## Aeson

South by Southwest said:


> True. I wouldn't even say "potentially" anymore: I think they're past that now.
> 
> Still, I've a nasty hunch Parmandur might be right.



Yet, I feel it could easily just be a footnote in history books. There are plenty on tv and online claiming the invasion isn't happening. This is why I say potentially. Disinformation has a way of becoming "alternative facts".


----------



## Li Shenron

We're not in Kansas anymore.

If you look around, there's more and more communities and companies dropping their traditional "no politics" stance.

When you see even *Switzerland* doing something about it, it should at least ring a bell...


----------



## UngainlyTitan

If this escalates to nukes then it really is a matter that concerns us all. Of course, at that point we may not be able to post here. 

Things will get interesting in the next couple of days, when the Russians decide how they are going to crack the nut that is Kyiv.
I know the west has ignored atrocities in urban warfare recently in places like Syria, Yemen and so forth but this a European city with close cultural ties across Europe, and the west. There are Ukrainian people living working every country in Europe, there are musicians, sports people and artist with fans and friends all over the west and it is going to be live on Twitter, Tiktok, Instagram and YouTube.
The speed of reaction in the EU and even the Swiss reaction is a reflection of the groundswell of public opinion. 
President Zelenskiy's performance has a lot to do with that. I mean the line "The fight is here, I need more ammunition, not a ride" is a classic.

Ya know, I do not think that the EU did not respond as rapidly to the financial crisis in 2008 as they are doing to the Ukraine crisis.


----------



## AnotherGuy

Li Shenron said:


> We're not in Kansas anymore.
> 
> If you look around, there's more and more communities and companies dropping their traditional "no politics" stance.
> 
> When you see even *Switzerland* doing something about it, it should at least ring a bell...



I have no problem with the dropping of the no politics stance. I have a problem when only one narrative is accepted and everything else is treated as misinformation and censored as was done within the covid thread, particularly when the science amongst the medical and scientific professions was not unified as the MSM would have us believe.


----------



## Morrus

AnotherGuy said:


> Well I feel this thread should get locked as this is a political thread and I would suspect just like the pandemic thread, only one vision will be permitted. Consensus is highly unlikely on this issue.






AnotherGuy said:


> That is unlikely judgement calls have already been made above on what news is considered propaganda and what is not.






AnotherGuy said:


> I have no problem with the dropping of the no politics stance. I have a problem when only one narrative is accepted and everything else is treated as misinformation and censored as was done within the covid thread, particularly when the science amongst the medical and scientific professions was not unified as the MSM would have us believe.



If you want to pick a fight with moderation, you're going the right way about it. Now, leave the thread please. If you have questions about the moderation in a different thread, you know the correct way to go about it, and that method is not 'challenge the moderation in an entirely different thread'.


----------



## Umbran

*Mod Note:*

Folks, the staff are having some discussion about how or if this thread will proceed.  We expect you to be extremely mindful of how you engage in this disucssion until we come to a decision.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

I appreciate what the mods have said above, and I have avoided this topic.

I will only say this- in the same way that this board believes that tolerance and inclusion are the correct way for things to be handled, and as such are proper behavior and not just "politics," I think it should also be the case that defending the rights of innocent people to live their lives free of terror and war in their own country should also be beyond politics.

And while there are certainly adjacent political topics that should be avoided, supporting free people in their time of greatest need shouldn't be controversial. IMO.


----------



## Morrus

I'll also add to Umbran's note above that 90% of this thread is just commentary on its existence.   If that's what you want to talk about, you can start a thread in Meta, but there is no need to make this thread a meta thread about its own existence. In the meantime, as Umbran says, we're discussing how best to handle this.


----------



## trappedslider

Thank you @Morrus and @Umbran  for not auto-locking this thread.

One way folks have been keeping tabs is  Flightradar24 ( Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24 ) where users have found drones with callsigns FORTEXX flying circles over the black sea. At some points, they have become the most tracked flights.

Over 32,000 watching US spyplane on Flightradar24 - Airline Ratings


Here's a sat photo of the convoy that's on its way Kyiv


----------



## Horwath

trappedslider said:


> Thank you @Morrus and @Umbran  for not auto-locking this thread.
> 
> One way folks have been keeping tabs is  Flightradar24 ( Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24 ) where users have found drones with callsigns FORTEXX flying circles over the black sea. At some points, they have become the most tracked flights.
> 
> Over 32,000 watching US spyplane on Flightradar24 - Airline Ratings
> 
> 
> Here's a sat photo of the convoy that's on its way Kyiv



not really a "spy" plane if everyone can track it on line...


----------



## trappedslider

Horwath said:


> not really a "spy" plane if everyone can track it on line...



It's called a spy plane because well it spys not because it can't be tracked.

Looks like you don't need a Visa if you wish to join Ukraine's fight  but you'll still need the right documents to get there Ukraine: No visa required for foreigners who join Kyiv's fight against Moscow


----------



## Horwath

trappedslider said:


> Looks like you don't need a Visa if you wish to join Ukraine's fight  but you'll still need the right documents to get there Ukraine: No visa required for foreigners who join Kyiv's fight against Moscow



I really hope that this will not invite the "lowest of the low" into Ukraine.

There are people that just want a legal justification to kill other people.

Also hoping that this will not escalate to "big red button" phase.


----------



## Sacrosanct

This invasion has been weighing on me.  I keep having flashbacks to my time in Bosnia when we went in early to stop that genocide.  I see all the faces of those who were brutalized, the mass graves; I heard the land mines going off all the time as some poor farmer or his animals stepped on them when trying to plow fields (I was part of an aircrew that crashed landed a UH-60 in a minefield; that puckers the sphincter) . I talked with a woman who pointed at the bus driver, saying he raped her as a guard when she was a prisoner only months earlier, but there was no justice to be found. I saw a woman trying to cook a meal over a small fire in her home.  A home that was missing half of its walls and most of its roof.  This was in winter by the way.

So while I know people are enthused about the Russian missteps and lack of progress, and it gives hope, I also know what's coming when Russia launches all of its troops, and not just a light invasion with inexperienced conscripts.  

My heart breaks.  I am so sorry for not only the people of Ukraine, but the Russian soldier and their family who is caught up in this and don't want to be there as well.

My experience with war, is that no one wins.  And the brutality and suffering doesn't end when the bullets stop, but lasts for years later. I really hope, with all my heart, that the pressure not just from the rest of the world, but from his own oligarchs and military leaders push back hard enough to knock some sort of sense into Putin.


----------



## Umbran

trappedslider said:


> It's called a spy plane because well it spys not because it can't be tracked.




If everyone knows it is there, it isn't a "spy".  It is an observer.


----------



## Umbran

Snarf Zagyg said:


> And while there are certainly adjacent political topics that should be avoided, supporting free people in their time of greatest need shouldn't be controversial. IMO.




If the thread becomes about _actually supporting people_ - like, say, charity donations - then we are unlikely to need to close this discussion.

If the thread becomes an argument over whether Putin is a mustache twirling villain, or whether sufficient "visions" of reality are represented, it will get closed.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Umbran said:


> If the thread becomes about _actually supporting people_ - like, say, charity donations - then we are unlikely to need to close this discussion.
> 
> If the thread becomes an argument over whether Putin is a mustache twirling villain, or whether sufficient "visions" of reality are represented, it will get closed.










						Do Public Good
					






					action.publicgood.com
				




A more UK-centric roundup-








						Ukraine help: What can people in the UK do?
					

Aid charities are working in Ukraine while grassroots groups are ready to support refugees.



					www.bbc.com
				




A compendium of recent links (US)-








						How to help Ukraine amid Russian attacks
					

A guide on how to help Ukraine and Ukrainians during the Russian invasion.




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## Rabulias

trappedslider said:


> One way folks have been keeping tabs is  Flightradar24 ( Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24 ) where users have found drones with callsigns FORTEXX flying circles over the black sea. At some points, they have become the most tracked flights.



This, plus things like the satellite photos from private companies like Maxar, western reporters positioned on the Russian side of the border observing, filming, and reporting on the troops and vehicles moving toward Ukraine, and the large social media presence of a lot of people in Ukraine sharing footage. The technology is different now, and I wonder what effects it will have? And I know there have been mobile phones, cameras, and social media utilized in other conflicts in the last 20 years, but this is the first nation-vs-bordering nation in that time, I believe. I hope for the situation to resolve peacefully as soon as possible of course, but if it continues it will be an interesting element to watch.


----------



## Umbran

And, gaming relevant:









						[Chaosium] Call of Cthulhu's 'Does Love Forgive?' is 'Pay-Want-You-Want' for the next 14 days; but don't pay us, donate to support Ukrainian Refugees
					

We're making the Call of Cthulhu scenario collection Does Love Forgive? 'Pay-What-You-Want' on DriveThruRPG for the next two weeks (regular price is USD$5.99).  If you download it, instead of paying us, we encourage you to make a donation to organisations supporting people seeking safety from...




					www.enworld.org


----------



## John R Davis

It's certainly put us off playing with our shiny Twilight2000 boxes.

Just a sad and horrible mess we are witnessing


----------



## Zardnaar

I've been using reddit a lot. It's often an hour or so ahead of the media. 

 Just gotta be careful but a few links there go to things you won't see on TV as mucheg European sources or unedited video.  

r/Ukraine, r/Ukraine conflict. 

r/Russia was shut down, 

 Some video floating around is from earlier conflicts, different parts of the world etc.

 CCTV cameras at the border were being livestreamed so you could watch what was driving past. Russians left them up for 30 odd hours.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

*Mod Note:*

In an effort to keep this thread open, let’s limit the discussion to humanitarian aid efforts, and minimize the actual politics side as much as humanly possible.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Things to think about, right now there are people fighting and dying.  On both sides.

The soldiers (on both sides) probably don't want to be there, regardless of their world view.

The civilians caught in the middle need help and are truly casualties (regardless of whether or not they get hit by munitions spelt).

Before you make any posts about good and bad, remember that's just the politics and gets played away from the field; those in the thick of it, they just are... they are sons, daughters, fathers, mothers, brothers, sisters, etc. and deserve your praise or pity regardless of which 'side' they are on.  To my International brothers and sisters, I bid you safety, until peace.


----------



## Umbran

Thunderfoot said:


> those in the thick of it, they just are... they are sons, daughters, fathers, mothers, brothers, sisters, etc. and deserve your praise or pity regardless of which 'side' they are on.




It has been some decades since, "I was just following orders," was considered a defense for wrongdoing.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Umbran said:


> It has been some decades since, "I was just following orders," was considered a defense for wrongdoing.



Wrong doing is raping women and shootng kids in the head.  Following orders to wage a war, regardless of the reason, is just following orders.

Be careful@Umbran, I may have to mod you on this one.  

Seriously though, this wouldn't even go to the Geneva accords.  If there was a war crimes committee held today, Mr Putin and possibly the Pres of Belarus and the Ministers of Warfare would be held, questioned and tried but the Armies at large would be free and clear.  Again, the politics versus being a soldier.  If you've ever worn the boots, it's hard not to be the unintentional target of politics.


----------



## Smackpixi

Umbran said:


> It has been some decades since, "I was just following orders," was considered a defense for wrongdoing.



For war crimes, yeah, for doing evil things, yeah.  But for being conscripted or even willingly joining an army and fighting on a side, that excuse still works I think.  Unless just being in an army is a war crime, are you saying that’s the case here?


----------



## Greggy C

Thunderfoot said:


> Before you make any posts about good and bad, remember that's just the politics



As someone who is exhausted after fighting the Russian progangda trolls for 3 days straight, I regret opening this thread, because your perspective is maddening.

What is just politics for you when Poland was invaded?

Ukraine is fighting the worlds battle for freedom, ex military around the world are joining the fight for freedom as private citizens while you sniff and say "dont call it good or bad, its just politics".


----------



## Thunderfoot

Greggy C said:


> As someone who is exhausted after fighting the Russian progangda trolls for 3 days straight, I regret opening this thread, because your perspective is maddening.
> 
> What is just politics for you when Poland was invaded?
> 
> Ukraine is fighting the worlds battle for freedom, ex military around the world are joining the fight for freedom as private citizens while you sniff and say "dont call it good or bad, its just politics".



Because politics don't belong here.  When you start siding conversations here, it gets locked. My opinions don't belong here, and neither do yours.  Don't think you know mine, because I won't state them here.  Are we crystal clear?


----------



## Greggy C

Thunderfoot said:


> Because politics don't belong here.  When you start siding conversations here, it gets locked. My opinions don't belong here, and neither do yours.  Don't think you know mine, because I won't state them here.  Are we crystal clear?



Im crystal clear the kind of person you are, very very clear.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Greggy C said:


> Im crystal clear the kind of person you are, very very clear.



Nope, you don't and I'm sorry you feel that way.


----------



## Umbran

Thunderfoot said:


> Wrong doing is raping women and shootng kids in the head.  Following orders to wage a war, regardless of the reason, is just following orders.
> ...
> Seriously though, this wouldn't even go to the Geneva accords.




Given that "this" is unspecified, I think I'll withhold judgement.



Smackpixi said:


> For war crimes, yeah...












						The ICC says it will open an investigation into alleged war crimes in Ukraine
					

The International Criminal Court's top prosecutor said there is "reasonable basis to believe" war crimes may have been committed in Ukraine, where eight years of conflict preceded Russia's invasion.




					www.npr.org
				




So, we shall see what we shall see.


----------



## Umbran

Greggy C said:


> Im crystal clear the kind of person you are, very very clear.




*Mod Note:*
Making this personal is a great way to earn yourself an exit from this discussion.  Please don't do this again.


----------



## Smackpixi

Umbran said:


> So, we shall see what we shall see.



We shall, but again, even after WWII we didn’t call everyone that drove a truck in Hitler’s army a war criminal, just the ones that did other things.  Let’s not broad brush the humans on one side as monolithic other Enemies.  They humans to, worth remembering.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Smackpixi said:


> We shall, but again, even after WWII we didn’t call everyone that drove a truck in Hitler’s army a war criminal, just the ones that did other things.  Let’s not broad brush the humans on one side as monolithic other Enemies.  They humans to, worth remembering.



Exactly.


----------



## Zardnaar

Moot point. Either have to go to war and win and avoid getting nuked or hope for regime collapse and whoever takes over agrees to extradition.

 Somewhat double standards as well considering USA position on the ICC. 

 It feeds the Russian propaganda machine and gives credence to the other lies. Not to mention whataboutism.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

*Mod Note:*

Last chance: Posting about aid efforts is OK, but ditch the politics, or the thread gets locked.  

For Example:


			https://twitter.com/WCKitchen?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor


----------



## Umbran

Smackpixi said:


> We shall, but again, even after WWII we didn’t call everyone that drove a truck in Hitler’s army a war criminal




It would be really awesome if you looked back and realized that this apparent idea that I'm calling for every single soldier to be brought to the Hague or something is, in fact, _not something I said._


----------



## BrokenTwin

With the amount of potential misinformation that's been flying about, it's been difficult to determine how best one can support the Ukrainian people without getting caught in opportunists' scams. I've seen that they're selling war bonds, but my opinions on the stock market conflict with my willingness to engage in that space.
And I am 100% in no position to contribute physically.


----------



## Thunderfoot

BrokenTwin said:


> With the amount of potential misinformation that's been flying about, it's been difficult to determine how best one can support the Ukrainian people without getting caught in opportunists' scams. I've seen that they're selling war bonds, but my opinions on the stock market conflict with my willingness to engage in that space.
> And I am 100% in no position to contribute physically.



The best way to ensure you aren't being scammed is to contact an agency that does aid directly, or contact USAID.gov and ask them to direct you to a legitmate agency.  The Red Cross is usually a good place to start, and several religious relief organizations are looking to help.  Also you could contact the Ukrainian Consulate, they should also be able to direct you.  Blindly going to a website, especially right now, may be a bad call.


----------



## South by Southwest

BrokenTwin said:


> With the amount of potential misinformation that's been flying about, *it's been difficult to determine how best one can support the Ukrainian people without getting caught in opportunists' scams.*



There are _a lot_ of those right now. Folks should be very careful to research any organization to which they might give money.


----------



## Umbran

BrokenTwin said:


> With the amount of potential misinformation that's been flying about, it's been difficult to determine how best one can support the Ukrainian people without getting caught in opportunists' scams.




Searching for the "best" way can get in the way of contributing.  There are some solid standards that can be depended on to not be scams:


International Committee of the Red Cross - Ukraine Crisis
UNHCR United Nations Refugee Committee - Ukraine Emergency
Save the Children - Ukraine Crisis
Doctors Without Borders/Medecins Sans Frontieres - Ukraine


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

In addition to what @Umbran said which are highly recommended, and the links provided in the prior post, I would look at some of the following-

Ukraine Specific*
Ukrainian Red Cross. Donate.
Voices of the Children.  Donate.
Razom for Ukraine.  Donate. 

Rapid Humanitarian Aid via Czech Republic
People in Need.  Donate.


There are numerous other ways to assist; obviously, only go through reputable charities.

In addition, the United Nations has announced a Flash Appeal for $1.7 Billion to help cope with growing humanitarian crisis.
Donate here.

In addition, further displays of public support are always good. In almost every place you are reading this, there is likely a protest- join it.


*I would note that given the situation, the advantage of direct donations to the people in the area might be somewhat contradicted by the inability of those there to take advantage of them.


----------



## BrokenTwin

Umbran said:


> Searching for the "best" way can get in the way of contributing.  There are some solid standards that can be depended on to not be scams:



That is a very valid point. Perfect is the enemy of good.


----------



## Aeson

Would donating blood be an option for some? Your blood might not go to Ukraine, but it might replace some that has. I picture them daisy chaining it. Closer countries supplies going to Ukraine with further countries replacing theirs.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Aeson said:


> Would donating blood be an option for some? Your blood might not go to Ukraine, but it might replace some that has. I picture them daisy chaining it. Closer countries supplies going to Ukraine with further countries replacing theirs.



If you are in Europe, there is a very good chance. If you are in North America, then probably not.  Blood very, very, rarely crosses the sea due to a myriad of medical reasons.  There are exceptions but those usually revolve around military medical supplies.  

A good example is the mad cow epidemic of the 90s.  I still can't give blood to the American Red Cross because I was stationed in Europe in the 90s.


----------



## Umbran

Aeson said:


> Would donating blood be an option for some? Your blood might not go to Ukraine, but it might replace some that has. I picture them daisy chaining it. Closer countries supplies going to Ukraine with further countries replacing theirs.




For Americans, I doubt it.  I don't see the Red Cross shipping blood overseas to cover supply.  Especially when blood supplies in the USA are generally low now.


----------



## BrokenTwin

Aeson said:


> Would donating blood be an option for some? Your blood might not go to Ukraine, but it might replace some that has. I picture them daisy chaining it. Closer countries supplies going to Ukraine with further countries replacing theirs.



Since a lot of areas around the world have low blood supplies, I don't imagine donating blood in a far-from-Ukraine location would have the ripple effect you would hope for.

Having said that, donating blood if you can is an excellent idea regardless. Even if it doesn't help Ukrainians, you're still helping other people survive things that would otherwise be fatal without the donation.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Umbran said:


> For Americans, I doubt it.  I don't see the Red Cross shipping blood overseas to cover supply.  Especially when blood supplies in the USA are generally low now.



True they're still trying to catch up from.. in order, the pandemic, the western wildfires, the easter floods, the flooding of the west, the winter tornados...


----------



## Aeson

I just donated to Doctors Without Borders. Not bragging, or trying to start something. I just wanted to share my experience. 

 I followed the link above. They have a big red donate button. They give several different options for donations. They have a credit card and Pay Pal option for payment. It was real quick and easy. 

It's a charity I've thought of supporting in the past. I'm in a position where I can give a little to help.


----------



## Aeson

I don't recall seeing donating blood as a suggestion earlier. I guess I was too hopeful for it. I still think it's something our European friends can do to help. Maybe this could encourage Americans to donate to help locally.


----------



## payn

During these conflicts there is always news that just surprises me. I just read an article about Ukrainian citizens being worried about having to declare captured Russian military scrap on their taxes. The answer is apparently no.


----------



## moriantumr

I bake for fun, and work very part time in a neighborhood bakery. I found a recipe for a Ukrainian honey babka and did a test bake hoping to bake some at work and offer it for donations to Voices for Children. The test bake at home went well and my wife put it up on Facebook offering a piece for 2 dollars that would then get donated. I have baked 2 more cakes and have gathered more than 300 dollars with more to come. 
I have learned that making donations accessible can make a huge difference. Many who bought cake did not know where to begin and were glad of direction. 
I thought I might be able to leverage 10 dollars of ingredients and a few hours of work to help a bit, but it is much more than I anticipated.


----------



## Aeson

payn said:


> During these conflicts there is always news that just surprises me. I just read an article about Ukrainian citizens being worried about having to declare captured Russian military scrap on their taxes. The answer is apparently no.



I read the headline and was amused. lol


----------



## payn

moriantumr said:


> I bake for fun, and work very part time in a neighborhood bakery. I found a recipe for a Ukrainian honey babka and did a test bake hoping to bake some at work and offer it for donations to Voices for Children. The test bake at home went well and my wife put it up on Facebook offering a piece for 2 dollars that would then get donated. I have baked 2 more cakes and have gathered more than 300 dollars with more to come.
> I have learned that making donations accessible can make a huge difference. Many who bought cake did not know where to begin and were glad of direction.
> I thought I might be able to leverage 10 dollars of ingredients and a few hours of work to help a bit, but it is much more than I anticipated.
> 
> 
> View attachment 152665



Umm, could we get this recipe?


----------



## Aeson

moriantumr said:


> I bake for fun, and work very part time in a neighborhood bakery. I found a recipe for a Ukrainian honey babka and did a test bake hoping to bake some at work and offer it for donations to Voices for Children. The test bake at home went well and my wife put it up on Facebook offering a piece for 2 dollars that would then get donated. I have baked 2 more cakes and have gathered more than 300 dollars with more to come.
> I have learned that making donations accessible can make a huge difference. Many who bought cake did not know where to begin and were glad of direction.
> I thought I might be able to leverage 10 dollars of ingredients and a few hours of work to help a bit, but it is much more than I anticipated.
> 
> 
> View attachment 152665



Great idea. It was more than you anticipated good or bad? Don't take on more than you can handle.


----------



## wicked cool

i was watching a D&D stream last night and a person commented " i didnt like the person speaking in a russian accent" . i actually worry that there will be a persecution of immigrants from russia due to their leaders


----------



## Mannahnin

wicked cool said:


> i was watching a D&D stream last night and a person commented " i didnt like the person speaking in a russian accent" . i actually worry that there will be a persecution of immigrants from russia due to their leaders



One reminder I've seen and definitely agree with is that local Ukrainian AND Russian people, and their churches, charities and small businesses where we live could use our support, and certainly none of our hostility.

Regular folks from these countries, especially ones who've immigrated abroad, bear no responsibility for the military decisions back "home", and certainly shouldn't come in for any social or other mistreatment.


----------



## Sacrosanct

wicked cool said:


> i was watching a D&D stream last night and a person commented " i didnt like the person speaking in a russian accent" . i actually worry that there will be a persecution of immigrants from russia due to their leaders



It's already happened, that I've seen personally.  And Americans being Americans, they can't tell if someone is from Ukraine or Russia by accent alone, so a whole lot of people not even Russian _OR _Ukrainian are getting lumped into the harassment.


----------



## Nikosandros

Here in Rome numerous collection points have been set up where you can bring food, clothes, medicines, etc. I'm sure that it's the same in many other Italian and European cities.


----------



## moriantumr

payn said:


> Umm, could we get this recipe?




Sure thing. 



			Ukrainian Old-Fashioned Honey Babka - Olga in the Kitchen
		


It is not super sweet, at least for American tastes, and the amount of frosting the recipe makes is more than needed if you just pipe a bit like the recipe suggests. You could get away with halving it and still have extra.


----------



## moriantumr

Aeson said:


> Great idea. It was more than you anticipated good or bad? Don't take on more than you can handle.




I had not anticipated the need or generosity. I would have been happy to turn a cake into 50 dollars of donations. I need to actually talk to my boss about doing it at the bakery. Fat Tuesday Paczki kept it too busy and today was all the stuff we put off for the paczki

I do appreciate the reminder. I often forget to take care of myself when I am not mindful.


----------



## Umbran

Also, for charity donations, check with your employer.  Mine just announced a matching program for Ukrainian support donations.


----------



## Grendel_Khan

Interesting article from Dicebreaker on Ukraine-based game publishers and distributors:









						“Now, more than ever, we need to be strong”: Ukraine board game publishers, creators and stores rally in wake of Russian invasion
					

Tabletop outlets in country urge supporters to donate blood, money and other aid.




					www.dicebreaker.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Sacrosanct said:


> It's already happened, that I've seen personally.  And Americans being Americans, they can't tell if someone is from Ukraine or Russia by accent alone, so a whole lot of people not even Russian _OR _Ukrainian are getting lumped into the harassment.




 Happens every time. Unless someone's wearing around wearing those Putin t-shirts and waving the Soviet flag or something leave them alone. 

 Here there's been an incident where they spray painted a ship selling Russian goods. 

 Progress I suppose in 1914-18 they threw bricks through the windows and renamed several streets.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Головна - Голоси дітей
					






					voices.org.ua
				




This charity works on mental healthcare issues of children in war zones.


----------



## Thunderfoot

There is a reason a lot of Mullers, Schmidts and Kreigs became Millers, Smiths and Craigs prior to WWI in the US.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thunderfoot said:


> There is a reason a lot of Mullers, Schmidts and Kreigs became Millers, Smiths and Craigs prior to WWI in the US.




  Our head of state. House of Windsor used to be Saxe-Coburg iirc.


----------



## Rabulias

I think the words of Martin Kimani (Kenya's UN ambassador) prior to the invasion really put this in perspective, and clearly show Russia's actions go against the spirit of the United Nations.


			
				Martin Kimani said:
			
		

> This situation echoes our history. Kenya and almost every African country was birthed by the ending of empire. Our borders were not of our own drawing. They were drawn in the distant colonial metropoles of London, Paris and Lisbon, with no regard for the ancient nations that they cleaved apart. At independence, had we chosen to pursue states on the basis of ethnic, racial or religious homogeneity, we would still be waging bloody wars these many decades later. Instead, we agreed that we would settle for the borders that we inherited, but we would still pursue continental political, economic and legal integration. Rather than form nations that looked ever backward into history with a dangerous nostalgia, we chose to look forward to a greatness none of our many nations and peoples had ever known.




Hmm... I wonder if before the invasion, some third-party nation at the UN had said "These are serious and concerning allegations of what is happening inside Ukraine. But in the absence of evidence, I propose UN peacekeepers and observers (from a neutral nation) are sent to the Donbas to investigate ceasefire violations and see what is going on, reporting back in 30 days."

I doubt it would have changed anything, and it had the danger of giving a smidge of credence to Putin's lies, but I think it would have made Putin's justifications all the more flimsy when he rejected it.


----------



## Ryujin

The Canadian Red Cross is doing a campaign targeting support for Ukraine. I understand that people in the US will likely have a low opinion of The Red Cross in general, however, the Canadian Red Cross has consistently been effective and fiscally efficient, with $0.77 out of each dollar going directly to the stated cause.









						Red Cross launches Ukraine Humanitarian Crisis Appeal - Canadian Red Cross
					

The Canadian Red Cross has launched the Ukraine Humanitarian Crisis Appeal to respond to those affected by ongoing conflict in the country.@




					www.redcross.ca


----------



## Thunderfoot

Rabulias said:


> I think the words of Martin Kimani (Kenya's UN ambassador) prior to the invasion really put this in perspective, and clearly show Russia's actions go against the spirit of the United Nations.
> 
> 
> Hmm... I wonder if before the invasion, some third-party nation at the UN had said "These are serious and concerning allegations of what is happening inside Ukraine. But in the absence of evidence, I propose UN peacekeepers and observers (from a neutral nation) are sent to the Donbas to investigate ceasefire violations and see what is going on, reporting back in 30 days."
> 
> I doubt it would have changed anything, and it had the danger of giving a smidge of credence to Putin's lies, but I think it would have made Putin's justifications all the more flimsy when he rejected it.



Probably not, The security counsel would have had to vote on it before it went up to the general assembly.  And Russia is one of the 5 permanent members, China would either have voted with or abstained and the other 2 or 4 members beyond the US, UK amd France can drop anywhere based on their current politics.  That's the reason all the talk about NATO is so crucial.  NATO can act outside of the UN auspices but not in defense of a non-NATO member unless their is an order of special protection in place, which wasn't because they were under an existing cease-fire and other reasons we can't discuss here.


----------



## Zardnaar

Big problem of the UN. 

 "How many divisions does the UN have"?. 

 Basically people put to much faith in it.


----------



## Rabulias

Thunderfoot said:


> Probably not, The security counsel would have had to vote on it before it went up to the general assembly.  And Russia is one of the 5 permanent members, China would either have voted with or abstained and the other 2 or 4 members beyond the US, UK amd France can drop anywhere based on their current politics.



True enough, but note there are 15 members of the UN Security Council. The five permanent members' veto power does dilute the power of the UN, IMO.


----------



## Umbran

Rabulias said:


> I doubt it would have changed anything, and it had the danger of giving a smidge of credence to Putin's lies, but I think it would have made Putin's justifications all the more flimsy when he rejected it.




It isn't like anyone outside of Russia finds his justifications solid.


----------



## Rabulias

Umbran said:


> It isn't like anyone outside of Russia finds his justifications solid.



Oh there are a few.  Not many, thankfully, but there are some. And just like it would not have changed events in the long run, it would not change the minds of most Putin supporters; they would just have to work a bit harder to come up with some new lie.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> It isn't like anyone outside of Russia finds his justifications solid.




 It's the domestic audience though. I've seen anything from 30-70% support him. 

 The youth probably don't but there's not enough of them they weren't born in the 90's.


----------



## Sacrosanct

We need more stories like this.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sacrosanct said:


> We need more stories like this.




 It's always hard to know how genuine they are though. I saw that on Reddit. I remember that American airman being paraded in front of the cameras 1991. 

  One video thoy found the soldiers social media account in Russia and showed that.


----------



## Mustrum_Ridcully

The company I work at sent an email about something they are doing. We have a site in Poland, and during the last holiday season we had a lot of temp workers from the Ukraine. The people at the site are now working to contact the families of those workers (and reached some of them) to find them refuge in poland if required. They also plan to do some internal donation campaign, though there apparently still need to be some legal and tax details to be hammered out on that.

That was something that hammered home to me again how close things really are here in Europe and why this feels different from several of the wars in the last decades. 

My sister seems to be particular hit by all of it. The whole corona situation already put in her in a... bad mood, worried about freedom and the future. And she's kinda taking it personal, maybe because she's also seeing a lot of objection (even with us, her family). She didn't expect Putin to attack and trusted several more Nato/West-critical opinion groups that are usually more Putin-friendly, too. She expects everything to get worse.
I kinda feel it might have taken down her self-esteem. Of course, her response today might be due to some temporary mood swing, but it isn't the first time we hear worrisome things like that. And I don't really know what I can do to help her.
My other sister generally has similar political opinions, but she doesn't seem to be hit quite as hard by all of it. Maybe it's because she and her husband also have two children (1.5 and 3 years now) and that just puts a different perspective on life.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> It isn't like anyone outside of Russia finds his justifications solid.



Well there's Belarus. 

(OK, that's basically Russia)


----------



## Sacrosanct

Zardnaar said:


> It's always hard to know how genuine they are though. I saw that on Reddit. I remember that American airman being paraded in front of the cameras 1991.
> 
> One video thoy found the soldiers social media account in Russia and showed that.



Honestly, I don't care if it's real or not.  This is the kind of messaging we need if we want a resolution with the least lives lost.  If the Russians just stop fighting, and the oligarchs are tired of losing everything because Putin lost his mind, and the Russian people won't put up with a war like this, then maybe, just maybe, we can find a way to end this.  It's not like Russians have ever risen up against their leadership because of an unpopular war that caused people back home to suffer before...


----------



## Zardnaar

Sacrosanct said:


> Honestly, I don't care if it's real or not.  This is the kind of messaging we need if we want a resolution with the least lives lost.  If the Russians just stop fighting, and the oligarchs are tired of losing everything because Putin lost his mind, and the Russian people won't put up with a war like this, then maybe, just maybe, we can find a way to end this.  It's not like Russians have ever risen up against their leadership because of an unpopular war that caused people back home to suffer before...




  And look how that ended up. It's a very Russian PoV but whenever something changes like that (1917, 1991) you get something worse. 

 90's for us was grunge, Friends, and Sega/SNES. For them it was economic collapse, war, society collapse and a drunk in charge.

 Ideally there's a ceasefire tomorrow, Russians go home etc. 

 Otherwise I like my PM. 









						'Slava Ukraini': Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern leads Parliament in condemnation of Russia, amid criticism of inaction
					

The PM used a phrase which translates to “Glory to Ukraine” as she asked Parliament to join her in condemning Russia’s invasion.




					i.stuff.co.nz


----------



## Grendel_Khan

I can't imagine Putin pulling back until, from his perspective, he's taught Ukraine a lesson. That could mean doing to Kyiv what he did to Grozny.

Pulling this back to gaming for a second, I genuinely don't get why some folks on here have responded to the fighting by saying they aren't interested in playing Twilight 2000 anytime soon. It's not like you play pro-Russian forces in that game--totally the opposite, in most cases. If anything it seems insanely relevant, maybe even cathartic, unless your plan is to play some sort of vile warlord bandits, which to me would be missing the point of that game in a huge way.


----------



## FrogReaver

The history of Ukraine is very interesting.  A few recent highlights.  (From various sources).

*1991 -* Ukraine declares independence following attempted coup in Moscow.
*1994* - U.S., U.K. Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement for Ukraine to give up former Soviet Union nuclear weapons.
*2014 -* Protests broke out in Ukraine that led to their president fleeing and parliament voting to remove him.  Protests in Crimea against the new interim government broke out and they demanded a referendum on Crimea's independence.  Russia invades.  The referendum is held while Russia occupies Crimea.  The result is Crimea joins Russia.  *The referendum is highly disputed as illegal/invalid.
*2019 - *Television comedian Volodymyr Zelensky wins presidential election run-off in a landslide victory over incumbent Petro Poroshenko.
*2021 - *Jan. 2021: Zelenskiy appeals to U.S. president Joe Biden to let Ukraine join NATO. In February, his government freezes the assets of opposition leader Viktor Medvedchuk, the Kremlin's most prominent ally in Ukraine.
*2021 - *Spring 2021: Russia begins massing troops near Ukraine's borders in what it says are training exercises.
*2021* - Dec. 17 2021: Russia presents security demands including that NATO pull back troops and weapons from eastern Europe and bar Ukraine from ever joining.
*2022 - *Jan. 26: Washington responds to Russia's security demands, repeating a commitment to NATO's “open-door” policy while offering a “pragmatic evaluation” of Moscow's concerns. Two days later Russia says its demands not addressed.
*2022 - *Feb. 24: Putin authorizes “special military operations” in Ukraine. Russian forces begin missile and artillery attacks, striking major Ukrainian cities including Kiev.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Rabulias said:


> True enough, but note there are 15 members of the UN Security Council. The five permanent members' veto power does dilute the power of the UN, IMO.



Up to 15.  Wow.


----------



## Aeson

A former president called his actions "genius" and "savvy". Others have shown support  for Russia. 

I'd like to counteract them with this young lady. She's a singer from Ukraine. I think she's trying to do a series of updates. There are 2 more videos posted after this one. I hope she, and her family continue to stay safe.


----------



## FrogReaver

Aeson said:


> A former president called his actions "genius" and "savvy". Others have shown support  for Russia.



Do you think that's not political?  Or do you just not care?

I'm going to go ahead and say goodbye thread.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Umbran said:


> It isn't like anyone outside of Russia finds his justifications solid.



I wish I could agree with this, problem is there are a lot if small countries, mostly in Asia and Africa that depend upon aid from Russia.  That means that when it comes to support in the council, all you have to have is the right combo of nations.  This is why politics is never black and white or good and evil....even when it is.


----------



## Aeson

FrogReaver said:


> Do you think that's not political?  Or do you just not care?
> 
> I'm going to go ahead and say goodbye thread.



My post is in response to an earlier comment. There are people outside of Russia that find his justification solid. I don't want to deny they exist. If I overstepped, I'm sorry.


----------



## Rabulias

Thunderfoot said:


> I wish I could agree with this, problem is there are a lot if small countries, mostly in Asia and Africa that depend upon aid from Russia.  That means that when it comes to support in the council, all you have to have is the right combo of nations.  This is why politics is never black and white or good and evil....even when it is.



Yes but the good news is that those nations are in the minority. In today's resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 141 nations voted in favor. Only five nations (Russia, Belarus, Syria, North Korea, and Eritrea) voted against it. Thirty-five nations abstained (notably including China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, and South Africa), and 12 were absent. The resolution is non-binding, but it is a good expression of the world's will.


----------



## FrogReaver

Aeson said:


> My post is in response to an earlier comment. There are people outside of Russia that find his justification solid. I don't want to deny they exist. If I overstepped, I'm sorry.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> The history of Ukraine is very interesting.  A few recent highlights.  (From various sources).
> 
> *1991 -* Ukraine declares independence following attempted coup in Moscow.
> *1994* - U.S., U.K. Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement for Ukraine to give up former Soviet Union nuclear weapons.
> *2014 -* Protests broke out in Ukraine that led to their president fleeing and parliament voting to remove him.  Protests in Crimea against the new interim government broke out and they demanded a referendum on Crimea's independence.  Russia invades.  The referendum is held while Russia occupies Crimea.  The result is Crimea joins Russia.  *The referendum is highly disputed as illegal/invalid.
> *2019 - *Television comedian Volodymyr Zelensky wins presidential election run-off in a landslide victory over incumbent Petro Poroshenko.
> *2021 - *Jan. 2021: Zelenskiy appeals to U.S. president Joe Biden to let Ukraine join NATO. In February, his government freezes the assets of opposition leader Viktor Medvedchuk, the Kremlin's most prominent ally in Ukraine.
> *2021 - *Spring 2021: Russia begins massing troops near Ukraine's borders in what it says are training exercises.
> *2021* - Dec. 17 2021: Russia presents security demands including that NATO pull back troops and weapons from eastern Europe and bar Ukraine from ever joining.
> *2022 - *Jan. 26: Washington responds to Russia's security demands, repeating a commitment to NATO's “open-door” policy while offering a “pragmatic evaluation” of Moscow's concerns. Two days later Russia says its demands not addressed.
> *2022 - *Feb. 24: Putin authorizes “special military operations” in Ukraine. Russian forces begin missile and artillery attacks, striking major Ukrainian cities including Kiev.





Rabulias said:


> Yes but the good news is that those nations are in the minority. In today's resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 141 nations voted in favor. Only five nations (Russia, Belarus, Syria, North Korea, and Eritrea) voted against it. Thirty-five nations abstained (notably including China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, and South Africa), and 12 were absent. The resolution is non-binding, but it is a good expression of the world's will.




 I was reading yesterday a good chunk of North Africa and Turkey are reliant on Russian and Ukrainian grain. 

 Turkey essentially has hyperinflation they're selling government subsidized bread. 

 Haven't heard anything about Lebanon recently. 

 Morocco and Tunisia iirc may go hungry.

 We're not gonna go hungry here. Russian and Ukrainian beer might run out.

  More like ripple effects.


----------



## Rabulias

Zardnaar said:


> I was reading yesterday a good chunk of North Africa and Turkey are reliant on Russian and Ukrainian grain.
> 
> Turkey essentially has hyperinflation they're selling government subsidized bread.
> 
> Haven't heard anything about Lebanon recently.
> 
> Morocco and Tunisia iirc may go hungry.
> 
> We're not gonna go hungry here. Russian and Ukrainian beer might run out.
> 
> More like ripple effects.



Turkey, Lebanon, and Tunisia voted in favor of the resolution. Morocco was among the abstentions.

This map illustrates the voting (from United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1 - Wikipedia):




I wonder if a lot of the abstentions (in yellow) in Africa is a result of China's recent outreach efforts on that continent?

Another important distinction about today's resolution: In 2014 there was a resolution condemning Russia's annexation of Crimea. It passed, but the numbers were very different: 100 in favor, 11 against, 58 abstentions, and 24 absent (United Nations General Assembly Resolution 68/262 - Wikipedia).


----------



## Umbran

Thunderfoot said:


> I wish I could agree with this, problem is there are a lot if small countries, mostly in Asia and Africa that depend upon aid from Russia.




Right.  So, that doesn't mean they buy his justifications.  It just means they have something to lose.

And that's as far as I'm going to go into the politics.


----------



## Umbran

This is bloody brilliant!

A lot of the Russian forces are conscripts.  So, Ukraine is making an offer:

Translation of the below tweet
"Russian soldier! You were brought to our land to kill and die. Do not follow criminal orders. We guarantee you a full amnesty and 5 million rubles if you lay down your arms. For those who continue to behave like an occupier, there will be no mercy."


Why fight them, when you can just pay them not to fight?

Edit: added documentation of tweet from the Ukraine Minister of Defense


----------



## FrogReaver

Umbran said:


> This is bloody brilliant!
> 
> A lot of the Russian forces are conscripts.  So, Ukraine is making an offer - any Russian soldier who wants to surrender will be taken.  They'll be held until the conflict is over (but allowed to speak with their families) and will be given 5 million rubles (equivalent to about $47k), and allowed to make a new life in Ukraine.
> 
> Why fight them, when you can just pay them not to fight?



Source?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Well…with the recent precipitous devaluation of the ruble, it’s not as big a reward as it USED to be.

OTOH, I’ve seen some reports that they’re asking Russian mothers to pick up their POW sons at the Ukrainian border.  The optics on that could be VERY intriguing.


----------



## billd91

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well…with the recent precipitous devaluation of the ruble, it’s not as big a reward as it USED to be.
> 
> OTOH, I’ve seen some reports that they’re asking Russian mothers to pick up their POW sons at the Ukrainian border.  The optics on that could be VERY intriguing.



Sure beats the treatment their WWII predecessors got.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Ah propaganda.  Psy-ops is alive a well.  On a side note the Iraqi Psy-ops during the first Gulf War wasn't as well done.  I remember ..  

Dear American soldier, while you are here fighting for your Imperialist leaders, your women are sleeping with Tom Cruise, Brad Pitt and Bart Simpson.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> This is bloody brilliant!
> 
> A lot of the Russian forces are conscripts.  So, Ukraine is making an offer:
> 
> Translation of the below tweet
> "Russian soldier! You were brought to our land to kill and die. Do not follow criminal orders. We guarantee you a full amnesty and 5 million rubles if you lay down your arms. For those who continue to behave like an occupier, there will be no mercy."
> 
> 
> Why fight them, when you can just pay them not to fight?
> 
> Edit: added documentation of tweet from the Ukraine Minister of Defense




 There's lots of variants on that on Reddit via Twitter. 

9 billion iirc to give every soldier 100k. 

15-16 years pay for the average Russian. 

 1 million on Putin's head. 

 BUT their families are in Russia so they'll never really get to spend it even if they actually got paid out.


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> Source?




Sorry - clicked on post before pasting in the link.  I've added the source (a tweet from the Ukrainian Minister of Defense) above.


----------



## Umbran

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well…with the recent precipitous devaluation of the ruble, it’s not as big a reward as it USED to be.




I suspect the number is picked to be nice, round, and understandable to a Russian soldier. And the ruble will bounce back after a bit.



Dannyalcatraz said:


> OTOH, I’ve seen some reports that they’re asking Russian mothers to pick up their POW sons at the Ukrainian border.  The optics on that could be VERY intriguing.




Yep.








						Ukraine is asking Russian mothers to come pick up their sons captured in Putin's invasion
					

"Mama! Your POW son is waiting for you!" Ukraine's defense ministry wrote on a flyer posted to Facebook.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Eltab

The strange connections in the world ...
A Facebook group that mostly rebroadcasts Lutheran church services and sermons is now full of material from Ukraine-based churches.
I thought Ukraine was traditionally Eastern Orthodox.


----------



## Zardnaar

Those stories have also been doing the rounds for several days. 

 Outright lies

Pretty much everything Russian
Ghost of Kyiv
Snake Island final stand

 Take with a grain of salt. 

Number of casualties inflicted (just in general)

Mad Putin narrative (anyone spoken to him recently?)

Number of Russians protesting (old footage from day 1&2)

Out of date Russian rations from 2015 (they were Russian no evidence where they came from)

 Regime change in Russia (the elite are tied to Putin and he's known a few since the 1980's)


----------



## Thunderfoot

Everything on the internet is true.   - Abraham Lincoln. 351 BCE.   

If only my ancient predecessors knew how easy it would be to drop propaganda/misinformation/psychological warfare information in the future, they would be tickled pink.  Used to, it took a ton of resources, just to make a small dent, now it's as easy as creating a website with a few pics and some dialog.  Someone, somewhere is gonna bite, like fishing with dynamite in a bathtub.  lol  Heck you don't even have to have a reason or an agenda to be able to do it.

(This isn't a commentary on any piece of information submitted, just the processes involved.)


----------



## billd91

Eltab said:


> The strange connections in the world ...
> A Facebook group that mostly rebroadcasts Lutheran church services and sermons is now full of material from Ukraine-based churches.
> I thought Ukraine was traditionally Eastern Orthodox.



Is there a reason they shouldn't reach out?


----------



## Zardnaar

Justice, irony, something else?


----------



## Aeson

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Well…with the recent precipitous devaluation of the ruble, it’s not as big a reward as it USED to be.
> 
> OTOH, I’ve seen some reports that they’re asking Russian mothers to pick up their POW sons at the Ukrainian border.  The optics on that could be VERY intriguing.



Yeah, this is the principal at your son's school. We're gonna need you to come pick him up. It seems he's been waging war against his classmates.


----------



## wicked cool

*footage today looks really bad. less than weeks and this is over in a bad way *


----------



## Umbran

For charities, folks might also consider World Central Kitchen.  Chef José Andrés founded it to provide rapid response food services to those in need - they are now out feeding Ukrainian refugees.









						World Central Kitchen
					






					wck.org


----------



## Grendel_Khan

wicked cool said:


> *footage today looks really bad. less than weeks and this is over in a bad way *




You gotta drop some links or be more specific. Otherwise what's the point of posting this?


----------



## wicked cool

they have taken large portions of southern ukraine. i dont expect it will be long before its over


----------



## Umbran

wicked cool said:


> they have taken large portions of southern ukraine. i dont expect it will be long before its over




The map looks something like this:




It is less about the area, and more about the value - the southern ports matter a lot.

But, if you think this will be over soon I think you are mistaken.  The Ukrainians have demonstrated very little interest in complying - which means occupying forces will be facing resistance for a long time, even if the current Ukrainian government falls.  Blowing things up in the short term is easy.  Actually holding and governing it is much harder.


----------



## Mannahnin

Apparently the 40 mile long military convoy that was progressing toward Kyiv has been stuck for a couple of days, due to resistance and numerous broken down vehicles.









						Russian Convoy Stuck For Three Days Due to 'Mechanical Breakdown'—U.K.
					

The UK Ministry of Defence said the Ukrainian resistance has played a role in preventing Russian progression.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## FrogReaver

Mannahnin said:


> Apparently the 40 mile long military convoy that was progressing toward Kyiv has been stuck for a couple of days, due to resistance and numerous broken down vehicles.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Convoy Stuck For Three Days Due to 'Mechanical Breakdown'—U.K.
> 
> 
> The UK Ministry of Defence said the Ukrainian resistance has played a role in preventing Russian progression.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsweek.com



recent reports seem to suggest Russia paused the invasion due to a request by China.  Not sure if that is related to the convoy pause though. 

China asked Russia to delay Ukraine invasion until after Olympics -NYT


----------



## Zaukrie

Umbran said:


> For charities, folks might also consider World Central Kitchen.  Chef José Andrés founded it to provide rapid response food services to those in need - they are now out feeding Ukrainian refugees.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> World Central Kitchen
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> wck.org



I donated to them yesterday. Great charity. 

I will have to refrain from posting my other thoughts on this thread....since I'd get banned for language...


----------



## Umbran

FrogReaver said:


> recent reports seem to suggest Russia paused the invasion due to a request by China.  Not sure if that is related to the convoy pause though.




No relation.  China didn't want this invasion stomping on their Olympics.


----------



## Horwath

Umbran said:


> The map looks something like this:
> View attachment 152749
> It is less about the area, and more about the value - the southern ports matter a lot.
> 
> But, if you think this will be over soon I think you are mistaken.  The Ukrainians have demonstrated very little interest in complying - which means occupying forces will be facing resistance for a long time, even if the current Ukrainian government falls.  Blowing things up in the short term is easy.  Actually holding and governing it is much harder.



Yes.

also, democracy at work in the face of death:








						Ukraine crisis: Konotop mayor urges residents to fight as Russian troops surround city
					

Emergency services of Ukraine say that more than 2,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed so far in Russia's invasion of its eastern European neighbour.




					news.sky.com


----------



## Dire Bare

Grendel_Khan said:


> Pulling this back to gaming for a second, I genuinely don't get why some folks on here have responded to the fighting by saying they aren't interested in playing Twilight 2000 anytime soon. It's not like you play pro-Russian forces in that game--totally the opposite, in most cases. If anything it seems insanely relevant, maybe even cathartic, unless your plan is to play some sort of vile warlord bandits, which to me would be missing the point of that game in a huge way.



Twilight 2000 is an RPG dealing with war in the near-future . . . . that sours for some when real war is dominating the headlines.

For similar reasons, its why fantasy and far-future sci-fi is so appealing . . . they can be an escape from the grim realities of today.


----------



## trappedslider

FrogReaver said:


> recent reports seem to suggest Russia paused the invasion due to a request by China.  Not sure if that is related to the convoy pause though.
> 
> China asked Russia to delay Ukraine invasion until after Olympics -NYT



yeah, the age-old tradition of the “Olympic Truce”, which also means China knew and did nothing other than saying please hold.

The convoy (thanks to C. W. McCall I now think "Rubber Ducky every time I hear the word convoy) seems to have stalled due to a number of logistical issues (food, parts, fuel).


----------



## Zardnaar

trappedslider said:


> yeah, the age-old tradition of the “Olympic Truce”, which also means China knew and did nothing other than saying please hold.
> 
> The convoy (thanks to C. W. McCall I now think "Rubber Ducky every time I hear the word convoy) seems to have stalled due to a number of logistical issues (food, parts, fuel).




 It's gonna be raining over there around about now. 

 So stalling for two weeks........ 

They have a word for it but I forget. Next 4-6 weeks probably rain a lot.


----------



## trappedslider

Zardnaar said:


> It's gonna be raining over there around about now.
> 
> So stalling for two weeks........
> 
> They have a word for it but I forget. Next 4-6 weeks probably rain a lot.



poor planning?


----------



## Zardnaar

trappedslider said:


> poor planning?




 Hard to say. 

 Rasputitsa is the word. Gets muddy every now and then they dig up a tank or whatever from WW2 that sunk in it.


----------



## Umbran

Grendel_Khan said:


> Pulling this back to gaming for a second, I genuinely don't get why some folks on here have responded to the fighting by saying they aren't interested in playing Twilight 2000 anytime soon. It's not like you play pro-Russian forces in that game--totally the opposite, in most cases.




If I may suggest - who they are playing is irrelevant.  _Having fun_ play-acting something that is causing actual misery elsewhere can hit some folks right in the empathy, or seem intensely disrespectful to the folks who are, right now, lying dead in the mud, and the like..



Grendel_Khan said:


> If anything it seems insanely relevant, maybe even cathartic...




Catharsis and other emotional processing is extremely personal - meaning it differs a great deal from person to person.  What it seems like to you is irrelevant, as other people have different feelings.


----------



## trappedslider

Gaming companies are now taking act6ions Ukrainian gov’t calls for game companies to cut off Russia during invasion [Updated]


----------



## Thunderfoot

I struck by something...  Putin wanted a re formed CCCP and the glory of the former Soviet State.
He may have well just gotten his own Afghanistan.  - irony...


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Mannahnin said:


> Apparently the 40 mile long military convoy that was progressing toward Kyiv has been stuck for a couple of days, due to resistance and numerous broken down vehicles.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Convoy Stuck For Three Days Due to 'Mechanical Breakdown'—U.K.
> 
> 
> The UK Ministry of Defence said the Ukrainian resistance has played a role in preventing Russian progression.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsweek.com






trappedslider said:


> The convoy (thanks to C. W. McCall I now think "Rubber Ducky every time I hear the word convoy) seems to have stalled due to a number of logistical issues (food, parts, fuel).






Zardnaar said:


> Rasputitsa is the word. Gets muddy every now and then they dig up a tank or whatever from WW2 that sunk in it.



This discussion archived on Imgur points out some real maintenance issues that may bedevil the Russian ground forces for the duration of the invasion.

TL, DR: due to neglectful maintenance, many of the Russian wheeled vehicles may be riding on tires on the cusp of catastrophic failure.  This translates into the logistical and tactical nightmare of a sizable chunk of their ground forces* being confined to paved roads only.*


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Thunderfoot said:


> He may have well just gotten his own Afghanistan. - irony...



Cue Alanis Morissette.


----------



## UngainlyTitan

Mannahnin said:


> Apparently the 40 mile long military convoy that was progressing toward Kyiv has been stuck for a couple of days, due to resistance and numerous broken down vehicles.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Convoy Stuck For Three Days Due to 'Mechanical Breakdown'—U.K.
> 
> 
> The UK Ministry of Defence said the Ukrainian resistance has played a role in preventing Russian progression.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsweek.com



That convoy is a real oddity, it is something the Russian high command should never have permitted to occur. If the Ukraine had SSMs or functioning strike aircraft still, it is a juicy target. If I were the Russians I would be trying to disperse it before some ex Soviet strike aircraft in NATO inventories are mated with Ukrainian pilots.
That fact that they have not done so in this time makes me wonder what is going on.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> This discussion archived on Imgur points out some real maintenance issues that may bedevil the Russian ground forces for the duration of the invasion.
> 
> TL, DR: due to neglectful maintenance, many of the Russian wheeled vehicles may be riding on tires on the cusp of catastrophic failure.  This translates into the logistical and tactical nightmare of a sizable chunk of their ground forces* being confined to paved roads only.*




 Yup I've seen that but filed it in the rumors category. 

 There's a book floating around that explains their doctrine. 

 The head if the convoy is setting up a FOB it's 17 kilometers from Kiev. 

 But their artillery has a range of 24 lm iirc. 

 To us it looks like Hur dur their army sucks but they're apparently running it pretty much by the book. Their book anyway. 

 And their army is a bit more willing to soak some casualties as well vs a western one. 

 Unless their army routs, collapses or Ukraine can counter attack they're still winning. 

 I'm watching CNN, MSNBC, France 24 and DW. A bit if footage they're using went up on Reddit days ago so there's also that. 

 Our perception may also be a bit skewed because of it.


----------



## Thunderfoot

So apparently the Russians are violating Swedish airspace.   Cue ominous music...


----------



## trappedslider

UngainlyTitan said:


> That convoy is a real oddity, it is something the Russian high command should never have permitted to occur. If the Ukraine had SSMs or functioning strike aircraft still, it is a juicy target. If I were the Russians I would be trying to disperse it before some ex Soviet strike aircraft in NATO inventories are mated with Ukrainian pilots.
> That fact that they have not done so in this time makes me wonder what is going on.



A meme, I've seen on Facebook has an A-10 with the caption "Hmmm lunch"


----------



## Zardnaar

UngainlyTitan said:


> That convoy is a real oddity, it is something the Russian high command should never have permitted to occur. If the Ukraine had SSMs or functioning strike aircraft still, it is a juicy target. If I were the Russians I would be trying to disperse it before some ex Soviet strike aircraft in NATO inventories are mated with Ukrainian pilots.
> That fact that they have not done so in this time makes me wonder what is going on.




 Ukrainians didn't have that many pilots 9 days ago. On paper they were outnumbered 10-1 in theatre. 

 As "bad" as the Russian stuff is the Ukrainian stuff was even worse. Russians had recycled updated Soviet stuff. Ukrainians similar stuff without the recycled and updated stuff for the most part. 

  That statement doesn't apply to Russian artillery, cruise missiles and air defences that stuff is new. Well some of it.

 Some of there stuff you're seeing onscreen is Vietnam war era vintage. Or even older (1950's)


----------



## Thunderfoot

While the state of the art Russian tank is the T-98 the majority are T-72s (meaning they were first notated in 1972).


----------



## billd91

Thunderfoot said:


> So apparently the Russians are violating Swedish airspace.   Cue ominous music...



Possibly Japanese as well.


----------



## Thunderfoot

billd91 said:


> Possibly Japanese as well.



They've contested the Northern islands for years.  They make overtures until they overstep and then back down.  The difference is that Japan is a direct US concern, so they tend to treat that with kid gloves.  Let's hope Mr. Putin hasn't completely slipped off his rocker.


----------



## trappedslider

Thunderfoot said:


> While the state of the art Russian tank is the T-98 the majority are T-72s (meaning they were first notated in 1972).



The most recent/state of the art Russian Tank is the T-_14 Armata_ then the T-90SM but yes the T-72B3 (the b3 being the most recent version) is for the most part being used.

The t-98 tank is China's current MBT.


----------



## Thunderfoot

trappedslider said:


> The most recent/state of the art Russian Tank is the T-_14 Armata_ then the T-90SM but yes the T-72B3 (the b3 being the most recent version) is for the most part being used.
> 
> The t-98 tank is China's current MBT.



Yep, my bad.  Regardless while they have some state of the art stuff, they rely mostly on updated versions of outdated equipment.  And it appears that most of the frontline troops that have been forward deployed are conscripts with outdated equipment.  Whether this is due to availability or Mr Putin's contempt of his enemy is unknown.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thunderfoot said:


> The most recent/state of the art Russian Tank is the T-_14 Armata_ then the T-90SM but yes the T-72B3 (the b3 being the most recent version) is for the most part being used.
> 
> The t-98 tank is China's current MBT.




 Problem is they're still aT-72. T-90 is a T-72 with T-80 turret. 

 They "update" them but one can only do so much.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thunderfoot said:


> Yep, my bad.  Regardless while they have some state of the art stuff, they rely mostly on updated versions of outdated equipment.  And it appears that most of the frontline troops that have been forward deployed are conscripts with outdated equipment.  Whether this is due to availability or Mr Putin's contempt of his enemy is unknown.




 It's pretty much their normal stuff. 

 Their "best" stuff is mostly propaganda. They exist but they have something like 25-50 of them mostly used in parades.


----------



## Nikosandros

UngainlyTitan said:


> That convoy is a real oddity, it is something the Russian high command should never have permitted to occur. If the Ukraine had SSMs or functioning strike aircraft still, it is a juicy target. If I were the Russians I would be trying to disperse it before some ex Soviet strike aircraft in NATO inventories are mated with Ukrainian pilots.
> That fact that they have not done so in this time makes me wonder what is going on.



If they tried transferring the planes to Ukraine, they would be likely to be destroyed in transit or at the new bases. If flown from, say, Poland, that would be an act of war and NATO doesn't want to do that.


----------



## trappedslider

Zardnaar said:


> Problem is they're still aT-72. T-90 is a T-72 with T-80 turret.
> 
> They "update" them but one can only do so much.



It's only a problem if your foe isn't fielding the same

Ukrainian stores mostly comprise of T-72UA1 tanks.

Does Russia or Ukraine have better tanks? interesting read


----------



## Thunderfoot

It's interesting that this is the first modern campaign where both sides are essentially fielding the same type and quality of equipment.  here are some differences but overall it's the equivalent of playing the same country against itself in a video game.


----------



## Grendel_Khan

ETA: Never mind. I’m too cranky today.


----------



## Grendel_Khan

Dire Bare said:


> Twilight 2000 is an RPG dealing with war in the near-future . . . . that sours for some when real war is dominating the headlines.
> 
> For similar reasons, its why fantasy and far-future sci-fi is so appealing . . . they can be an escape from the grim realities of today.



I hear what you’re saying, kinda. But T2K is now squarely (and explicitly, in the new edition) an alt-history story set in the past.

I get the escapism bit, though I also kinda feel like T2K is never going to be that sort of escapism. It’s not a power fantasy. It’s something harder-edged. In that same vein, some of the best movies, novels and TV shows explore harsh realities that are 100 percent current. When the pandemic first hit the movie Contagion shot to the top of streaming charts. Narratives in other mediums can let you work though the fear and anxiety, head on. Can RPGs do the same? I think so, but maybe I’m in the minority.

I’m not saying anyone should ever play anything they don’t want to, of course. It just makes me wonder what they think T2K is all about. It’s not a game where you wander around feeding on the pain of refugees or war casualties. In most campaigns I’d bet the PCs either immediately or eventually try to help.


----------



## Zardnaar

Derp. 









						Putin likens Western sanctions to war as Russian assault traps Ukrainian civilians
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Western sanctions were akin to war as his forces pressed their assault on Ukraine on Saturday for a 10th day and the IMF warned the conflict would have a "severe impact" on the global economy.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Mannahnin

UngainlyTitan said:


> That convoy is a real oddity, it is something the Russian high command should never have permitted to occur. If the Ukraine had SSMs or functioning strike aircraft still, it is a juicy target. If I were the Russians I would be trying to disperse it before some ex Soviet strike aircraft in NATO inventories are mated with Ukrainian pilots.
> That fact that they have not done so in this time makes me wonder what is going on.



I think it's mostly that the Ukrainian air power is pretty degraded at this point, and apparently NATO is NOT handing them any new planes, sadly.  I have read that they have been making some strikes on the convoy with what they have left, though.


----------



## Maxperson

Thunderfoot said:


> Everything on the internet is true.   - Abraham Lincoln. 351 BCE.



Well, if Honest Abe said it...


----------



## Horwath

Mannahnin said:


> I think it's mostly that the Ukrainian air power is pretty degraded at this point, and apparently NATO is NOT handing them any new planes, sadly.  I have read that they have been making some strikes on the convoy with what they have left, though.



EU wanted to send some planes but backtracked when Putin was talking about nuclear deterrence.


----------



## Dire Bare

Grendel_Khan said:


> I hear what you’re saying, kinda. But T2K is now squarely (and explicitly, in the new edition) an alt-history story set in the past.
> 
> I get the escapism bit, though I also kinda feel like T2K is never going to be that sort of escapism. It’s not a power fantasy. It’s something harder-edged. In that same vein, some of the best movies, novels and TV shows explore harsh realities that are 100 percent current. When the pandemic first hit the movie Contagion shot to the top of streaming charts. Narratives in other mediums can let you work though the fear and anxiety, head on. Can RPGs do the same? I think so, but maybe I’m in the minority.
> 
> I’m not saying anyone should ever play anything they don’t want to, of course. It just makes me wonder what they think T2K is all about. It’s not a game where you wander around feeding on the pain of refugees or war casualties. In most campaigns I’d bet the PCs either immediately or eventually try to help.



Yeah, I guess it was near-future when first released, but is now alternate history. I feel old.

I do feel like you are missing the point. It's not about how YOU view the game, its about how OTHERS do. It's a fine game, to be sure . . . but for SOME, playing modern day warfare gaming during modern day warfare reality isn't appealing. YMMV, of course.

Ukraine is getting a lot of attention right now, of course. But there is always something horrible happening somewhere that doesn't get the same level of media coverage and world attention. It's one of the reasons T2K doesn't appeal to me at all . . . it's too close to reality, and I prefer escapism in my gaming. For those who can separate their T2K gaming from their feelings about real-world warfare . . . more power to you!


----------



## Grendel_Khan

Dire Bare said:


> Yeah, I guess it was near-future when first released, but is now alternate history. I feel old.
> 
> I do feel like you are missing the point. It's not about how YOU view the game, its about how OTHERS do. It's a fine game, to be sure . . . but for SOME, playing modern day warfare gaming during modern day warfare reality isn't appealing. YMMV, of course.
> 
> Ukraine is getting a lot of attention right now, of course. But there is always something horrible happening somewhere that doesn't get the same level of media coverage and world attention. It's one of the reasons T2K doesn't appeal to me at all . . . it's too close to reality, and I prefer escapism in my gaming. For those who can separate their T2K gaming from their feelings about real-world warfare . . . more power to you!



Fair points, but as you address at the end, it doesn’t seem like T2K is your thing anyway.

So, respectfully…why are you responding about this? Would be like me talking about why I don’t want to play Strixhaven for this or that reason, and then adding the fact that I don’t really prefer D&D of any kind or gaming as pure escapism.


----------



## Dire Bare

Grendel_Khan said:


> Fair points, but as you address at the end, it doesn’t seem like T2K is your thing anyway.
> 
> So, respectfully…why are you responding about this? Would be like me talking about why I don’t want to play Strixhaven for this or that reason, and then adding the fact that I don’t really prefer D&D of any kind or gaming as pure escapism.



We're having a conversation? You responded to me first? But if it bothers you, I'll stop.


----------



## Smackpixi

So, I know donating blood was shot down a few days ago, and it’s true, no blood donated in the US or likely wherever you are is getting to Ukraine, but…it’s never a bad time to donate, it’s always needed, if a war somewhere makes you inclined to donate some blood, do it, there is never an excess, nor never a silly reason.  donate blood.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Keep your eyes open.  The usual charities will probably be doing clothing drives, either to go directly to the Ukrainian refugees or to replenish what they’ve already sent that way.  Many people basically ran away with whatever they were wearing and could carry.  And that’s not much.

Personal, I’d also keep a lookout for toys.  Apparently, a large percentage of the refugees arriving in other countries are unaccompanied minors.


----------



## John R Davis

Rabulias said:


> Yes but the good news is that those nations are in the minority. In today's resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 141 nations voted in favor. Only five nations (Russia, Belarus, Syria, North Korea, and Eritrea) voted against it. Thirty-five nations abstained (notably including China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, and South Africa), and 12 were absent. The resolution is non-binding, but it is a good expression of the world's will.



I am personally appalled that the most populous democracy in the world abstained. I'm sure when China starts to chip away at more of their territory they may have a change of heart.

I just hope all this aid reaches Ukraine in time, though I guess refugee agencies will spend it wisely

On the Twilight 2000 thing, you could play the Russians, the upcoming city-siege book will feel kinda odd, and maybe I always felt weird bit unease playing it.
I know it's a bad thought but with so many fat sitting targets just sat there ( convoy, black sea fleet) the Hawks probably thinking lots off " what if".


----------



## LongTimeLurker

Mannahnin said:


> I think it's mostly that the Ukrainian air power is pretty degraded at this point, and apparently NATO is NOT handing them any new planes, sadly.  I have read that they have been making some strikes on the convoy with what they have left, though.



Good. The last thing we need is NATO soliders getting into direct conflict with Russian soldiers or having NATO caught directly supplying the Ukraine or have NATO trying to enforce a 'no fly zone' in Ukrainian air space. I have less than zero desire to see WWIII start over a bunch of Euro BS. This is NOT a North American problem. Let portugal or spain or ireland or italy or any one of the dozens and dozens of Euro countries deal with it.


----------



## billd91

John R Davis said:


> I am personally appalled that the most populous democracy in the world abstained. I'm sure when China starts to chip away at more of their territory they may have a change of heart.



India’s abstention appears to be a mix of long-standing diplomatic ties and a general unwillingness to publicly pick geopolitical sides.


----------



## Rabulias

LongTimeLurker said:


> Good. The last thing we need is NATO soliders getting into direct conflict with Russian soldiers or having NATO caught directly supplying the Ukraine or have NATO trying to enforce a 'no fly zone' in Ukrainian air space. I have less than zero desire to see WWIII start over a bunch of Euro BS. This is NOT a North American problem. Let portugal or spain or ireland or italy or any one of the dozens and dozens of Euro countries deal with it.



Uh, you do realize that the majority of NATO _is _made up of European nations?

And as global as the economy is, the aftereffects of this _will _impact people in North America (and most other nations in the world), however it turns out. The pandemic and current global supply issues have shown this of late.

As far as WWIII, it's not like WWI and WWII started over European issues...  I agree we need to proceed carefully, but if the default policy is always "dictators with nukes can do anything they want" that is only going to get worse for everyone.


----------



## Zardnaar

Crappy situation nuclear threat when someone Putin doesn't like leaves the toilet seat up east of the Oder. 

 Still he's probably bluffing. He threatens consequences if anyone interfered. Well people are interfering.


----------



## Zardnaar

Rabulias said:


> Uh, you do realize that the majority of NATO _is _made up of European nations?
> 
> And as global as the economy is, the aftereffects of this _will _impact people in North America (and most other nations in the world), however it turns out. The pandemic and current global supply issues have shown this of late.
> 
> As far as WWIII, it's not like WWI and WWII started over European issues...  I agree we need to proceed carefully, but if the default policy is always "dictators with nukes can do anything they want" that is only going to get worse for everyone.




 A few if them have underfunded the militaries though UK and Germany come to mind. 

 France would be the only big member in any shape to fight and vs Russia one can probably count on the Poles.


----------



## J.Quondam

LongTimeLurker said:


> Good. The last thing we need is NATO soliders getting into direct conflict with Russian soldiers or having NATO caught directly supplying the Ukraine or have NATO trying to enforce a 'no fly zone' in Ukrainian air space. I have less than zero desire to see WWIII start over a bunch of Euro BS. This is NOT a North American problem. Let portugal or spain or ireland or italy or any one of the dozens and dozens of Euro countries deal with it.



To be sure, isolationism didn't keep the US out of WWI or WWII, and it wouldn't keep us out of WWIII, certainly not in a world where communications and economies are vastly more intertwined than then. And of course it doesn't help matters that growing chunks of western electorates and media have been swallowing Kremlin talking points for several years now.
The "not our problem" ship sailed a long time ago.


----------



## Morrus

LongTimeLurker said:


> Good. The last thing we need is NATO soliders getting into direct conflict with Russian soldiers or having NATO caught directly supplying the Ukraine or have NATO trying to enforce a 'no fly zone' in Ukrainian air space. I have less than zero desire to see WWIII start over a bunch of Euro BS. This is NOT a North American problem. Let portugal or spain or ireland or italy or any one of the dozens and dozens of Euro countries deal with it.



You need to not post in this thread again. We don't have much tolerance for xenophobic rants like this.


----------



## Morrus

Back to humanitarian efforts, please, folks.


----------



## Mezuka

*John Wick* on television this afternoon. The opening scene of the movie takes on a whole new meaning with the invasion of Ukraine.


----------



## Imaculata

My company has employees working in Odessa, where a lot of fighting is taking place right now. We have no idea if they are still alive, but we've assured them that they will continue to be paid, and hope they are safe.

I have lots of friends living in Ukraine, and the thought that they may no longer be alive, makes me feel sick.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> My company has employees working in Odessa, where a lot of fighting is taking place right now. We have no idea if they are still alive, but we've assured them that they will continue to be paid, and hope they are safe.
> 
> I have lots of friends living in Ukraine, and the thought that they may no longer be alive, makes me feel sick.



Odessa is a pretty city. Was on my bucket list forecast Europe trip.


----------



## GreyLord

Zardnaar said:


> There's a book floating around that explains their doctrine.




Foundations of Geopolitics by Aleksandr Dugin.


----------



## Smackpixi

Morrus said:


> You need to not post in this thread again. We don't have much tolerance for xenophobic rants like this.



For what it’s worth, that was an isolationist rant, not a xenophobic one.  I feel like it’s an important difference.  I can appreciate why you’d prefer neither here.


----------



## Zardnaar

Smackpixi said:


> For what it’s worth, that was an isolationist rant, not a xenophobic one.  I feel like it’s an important difference.  I can appreciate why you’d prefer neither here.




 Well it seems Merkals approach failed hard along with concepts from the 90's. 

 We haven't made these regimes friendly through trade we've enabled them. 

 Oops. Probably the safest or most polite way I can phrase it. 

 Interesting read anyway. From last year. 









						Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks
					

Editor's note: Don't miss our comprehensive guide to Russia's war against Ukraine.    Russia’s military buildup along the border with Ukraine has



					warontherocks.com


----------



## Maxperson

Zardnaar said:


> Still he's probably bluffing. He threatens consequences if anyone interfered. Well people are interfering.



Putin is a bully, and this is how cowardly bullies act.


----------



## Umbran

Morrus said:


> Back to humanitarian efforts, please, folks.




*Mod Note:

Folks, maybe some of you missed this - that was the owner of the site telling you all to bring the conversation back into a space where we don't have to boot you, ban you, or close the thread.

Maybe, you know, listen to him, please?  Thanks*.


----------



## J.Quondam

Has this been mentioned here yet? Mila Kunis (who was born in Ukraine) and her husband Ashton Kutcher are about halfway through a Gofundme campaign to raise $30 million to support temporary housing and other relief for people displaced from Ukraine.








						Mila Kunis, Ashton Kutcher Launch $30 Million Online Fundraiser for Ukrainian Humanitarian Aid
					

Mila Kunis, who was born in Ukraine, and her husband, Ashton Kutcher, have launched a GoFundMe campaign to raise $30 million to go toward relief efforts that help Ukrainian families displaced by Ru…




					variety.com


----------



## Aeson

Russians fleeing Russia? The humanitarian crisis will be getting a lot worse.









						Thousands of Russians arriving in Finland
					

Finland's state-owned rail operator VR says it is trying to add more trains to its Helsinki-St. Petersburg connection.




					yle.fi


----------



## Umbran

Aeson said:


> Russians fleeing Russia? The humanitarian crisis will be getting a lot worse.




Yeah.  As I understand it, the Baltic states are not in a great position to absorb refugees.


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> Yeah.  As I understand it, the Baltic states are not in a great position to absorb refugees.



I’m sure Russia‘s neighbors/former soviet republics could be a little wary as well. Many of them have their own substantial Russian populations seeded there as part of the Russian Empire/Stalin era’s efforts at Russification (read: colonization). Taking on Russian refugees now, if not eventually repatriated, could undermine independence later.


----------



## Sacrosanct

I saw today how people are renting all the AirB&Bs in Ukraine.  Not to stay, of course, but to support and send money to the owners.  That was pretty cool.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> Taking on Russian refugees now, if not eventually repatriated, could undermine independence later.




Yes.  Ethnic Russians already make up over 30% of Latvia's population, and they aren't very welcome.  Taking lots of refugees who don't move on could become a hairy situation, due to enmity for historic reasons.


----------



## Smackpixi

That would  great but most Airbnb properties are owned by absentee landlords who are maybe not there fighting and maybe Russians or Americans anyway.  But it’s a nice try.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Smackpixi said:


> That would  great but most Airbnb properties are owned by absentee landlords who are maybe not there fighting and maybe Russians or Americans anyway.  But it’s a nice try.



Do you have any evidence that suggests AirBnB in Ukraine are owned by Americans or Russians?  That seems an odd claim to make.


----------



## Aeson

There is always a chance for scams at a time like this. I haven't used Airbnb, so I don't know the particulars of it. In this story it mentions the organizers are encouraging people to make sure the rental is owned by an individual. It seems like a creative way to help. 









						People around the world are booking Airbnbs in Ukraine. They don't plan to check in
					

Airbnb hosts in Ukraine are getting flooded with bookings from people all over the world who have no intention of ever checking in. It's part of a social media campaign to ensure money gets to Ukrainians by booking, but not staying in, local Airbnbs.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## BRayne

Umbran said:


> Yes.  Ethnic Russians already make up over 30% of Latvia's population, and they aren't very welcome.  Taking lots of refugees who don't move on could become a hairy situation, due to enmity for historic reasons.




I can definitely see them being concerned for Daugavpils becoming the next Donbass


----------



## Smackpixi

Sacrosanct said:


> Do you have any evidence that suggests AirBnB in Ukraine are owned by Americans or Russians?  That seems an odd claim to make.



Uh no but, i Feel like everyone knows most Airbnb’s are absentee profit making enterprises, that’s why cities like Sf are trying to stop.  They’re rarely someone renting a spare room.


----------



## Zardnaar

BRayne said:


> I can definitely see them being concerned for Daugavpils becoming the next Donbass




 Or some other bananasquirrel reason. 

@Umbran are YouTube videos of the cities and locations (pre war) allowed? We were planning a booze cruise through eastern Europe pre Covid.


----------



## Imaculata

Zardnaar said:


> Still he's probably bluffing. He threatens consequences if anyone interfered. Well people are interfering.



At this point we can't assume Putin is bluffing with anything. Remember when people said he wouldn't invade Ukraine?

Yeah... Let's presume he's not bluffing. We are close to a nuclear war at the moment, and it could hit us all. A cornered dictator is a lot like a cornered cat: he is capable of anything.

Heck, if Russia bombs any of the nuclear reactors in Ukraine, what effect do you think that would have on the rest of Europe? His troops conquering Chernobyl was not just theater. If any of those reactors blow up, every country in Europe will be bathing in radioactive fall out. Sadly before it comes to that, I expect Putin will use chemical weapons on Ukraine first. There is no line he will not cross.

Lets not mince words here. We are all in a lot of danger, as we are on the eve of a possible ww3. It is terrifying. I fear not just for my friends and colleagues in Ukraine. I fear also for my own life. We don't have any fall out shelters in The Netherlands. If this escalates further, we're all going to be re enacting one of the Fall Out games over here.


----------



## Maxperson

I don't know if this has been posted yet, but the Queen has made a private donation to Ukraine.









						Queen Elizabeth II donates to support the people of Ukraine in wake of the Russian invasion
					

In a rare move, Queen Elizabeth II donated to support the people of Ukraine following Russia's invasion.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Baron Opal II

Imaculata said:


> Heck, if Russia bombs any of the nuclear reactors in Ukraine, what effect do you think that would have on the rest of Europe? His troops conquering Chernobyl was not just theater.



I wonder how the Chernobyl accident affected China? They may be a restraining hand, depending.


----------



## Rabulias

Baron Opal II said:


> I wonder how the Chernobyl accident affected China? They may be a restraining hand, depending.



Folks in Europe can probably give a better answer, but IIRC, the primary contamination was in Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia, but some radioactive particles were carried northward into Scandinavia. Over time, these particles spread over much of the northern hemisphere. They were diminished somewhat as they spread out, but radiation levels were measurably increased all over the world for a time after the incident. I am sure China got some of this, but I don't think they were affected as much as Scandinavia, much less the immediate vicinity of Chernobyl.


----------



## Horwath

Imaculata said:


> At this point we can't assume Putin is bluffing with anything. Remember when people said he wouldn't invade Ukraine?
> 
> Yeah... Let's presume he's not bluffing. We are close to a nuclear war at the moment, and it could hit us all. A cornered dictator is a lot like a cornered cat: he is capable of anything.
> 
> Heck, if Russia bombs any of the nuclear reactors in Ukraine, what effect do you think that would have on the rest of Europe? His troops conquering Chernobyl was not just theater. If any of those reactors blow up, every country in Europe will be bathing in radioactive fall out. Sadly before it comes to that, I expect Putin will use chemical weapons on Ukraine first. There is no line he will not cross.
> 
> Lets not mince words here. We are all in a lot of danger, as we are on the eve of a possible ww3. It is terrifying. I fear not just for my friends and colleagues in Ukraine. I fear also for my own life. We don't have any fall outs shelters in The Netherlands. If this escalates further, we're all going to be re enacting one of the Fall Out games over here.



We may be in WW3 already, but not just realizing it.

Hitler sized Austria, Czechoslovakia and parts of Lithuania before what we say that was beginning of WW2.


And Putin is bluffing about using nukes, or if he is not, military would not allow usage of them if direct invasion of Russia is not happening and the survival of Russian state is at direct risk.

Also, Putin does not have "the red button", he can only give orders to military/navy/air force to use them. And I'm pretty sure generals would refuse that order as using one nuke might mean total destruction of Russian cities and military. And good part of European/North american cities also

But yes, I agree, we are all in some degree of imminent danger, that is why Nato has to run air strike sorties against Russian/Belarus troops in Ukraine. 

And send all the humanitarian/military aid that they can.


I hope that this was not too political for already inflamed topic...


----------



## Grendel_Khan

Dire Bare said:


> We're having a conversation? You responded to me first? But if it bothers you, I'll stop.



Nope. Look back through our exchanges. I raised a point related to what others were talking about (delaying or not wanting to play T2K because of current events), then you responded to me...despite not actually being interested in playing T2K at any time, regardless of current events.

So, yeah, I guess I'm saying I'm not really interested? Again, this would be like me parachuting into a conversation about some specific event not making me want to play 5e, and then casually mentioning that I never really want to play 5e anyway. I would be offering nothing interesting or useful!


----------



## Imaculata

Today our meeting got interrupted by an air raid alarm. One of our Ukrainian colleagues had to seek shelter mid-meeting. It turned out to be only a drone. The madness of trying to do your job in the middle of a war. It is weird.


----------



## FrogReaver

Is ENworld as a site/business making any donations toward Ukraine humanitarian aid?


----------



## Nikosandros

Today, I've seen the Ukrainian movie Reflection. It was shot before the current events, but even though it is devoid of historical or political commentary, it gives an idea of the situation in the so-called separatist republics.

WARNING: The first part of the movie is very strong and can be hard to watch: there are explicit torture scenes.


P.S.
It is my understanding that the director, Valentyn Vasyanovych, is currently fighting with the Ukrainian army.


----------



## Mad_Jack

Reaper Miniatures has just announced that they'll be putting out a 2022 Ukrainian Relief metal miniature later this month, which is now available for pre-order. It's sculpted by Jason Weibe.
*$7.50* of the $9.99 cost will be going to *UNICEF*.
Since the nightingale is the national bird of the Ukraine, the miniature is going to be an anthropomorphic nightingale bard with a lute.
I'll be buying at least two or three of them.


----------



## payn

Mad_Jack said:


> Reaper Miniatures has just announced that they'll be putting out a 2022 Ukrainian Relief metal miniature later this month, which is now available for pre-order. It's sculpted by Jason Weibe.
> *$7.50* of the $9.99 cost will be going to *UNICEF*.
> Since the nightingale is the national bird of the Ukraine, the miniature is going to be an anthropomorphic nightingale bard with a lute.
> I'll be buying at least two or three of them.



Nice! I am going to buy a couple and give them as gifts.


----------



## Aeson

Mad_Jack said:


> Reaper Miniatures has just announced that they'll be putting out a 2022 Ukrainian Relief metal miniature later this month, which is now available for pre-order. It's sculpted by Jason Weibe.
> *$7.50* of the $9.99 cost will be going to *UNICEF*.
> Since the nightingale is the national bird of the Ukraine, the miniature is going to be an anthropomorphic nightingale bard with a lute.
> I'll be buying at least two or three of them.



Thought I'd help ya out with a link.











__





						Reaper Miniatures
					






					www.reapermini.com


----------



## Zardnaar

Wouldn't donating direct be a better idea? 

 Any company is gonna take a cut even if it's at cost.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Wouldn't donating direct be a better idea?
> 
> Any company is gonna take a cut even if it's at cost.




I expect the opposite - that which they spend in support of the charity is effectively a tax deduction.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> I expect the opposite - that which they spend in support of the charity is effectively a tax deduction.




 Ah gonna be a lot of worthy causes.









						War in Ukraine: Crisis is unleashing 'hell on earth' for food prices
					

The Ukraine war could push millions closer to starvation, the boss of the World Food Programme says.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Thunderfoot

So, ABC showed actual pictures of protesters inside Moscow.  This is, evidently, why Mr. Putin is blacklisting foreign media outlets; He thinks they are poisoning the minds of the youth with Western ideals and fake news.  lol


----------



## Imaculata

Apparently Russia is now also stopping people in the streets to check their phones for "wrong" text messages. What a lovely country!


----------



## darkwillow

You can donate directly to the Ukraine army









						NBU Opens Special Account to Raise Funds for Ukraine’s Armed Forces (updated)
					

The National Bank of Ukraine has decided to open a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine.    The central bank’s decision comes after the Ukrainian gove...




					bank.gov.ua


----------



## Iholdthebananas

Aeson said:


> I hope it doesn't get closed. This is potentially a world altering event. While political, it goes beyond politics.



I agree, this is an ongoing event that’s going to be affecting life long after the war itself ends ( hopefully with Putin being deposed ).


----------



## Grendel_Khan

Iholdthebananas said:


> I agree, this is an ongoing event that’s going to be affecting life long after the war itself ends ( hopefully with Putin being deposed ).



Unfortunately for everyone, Putin's not the "being deposed" type. I fear we'll all have to deal with him till he decides he's sick of it.


----------



## Ryujin

Grendel_Khan said:


> Unfortunately for everyone, Putin's not the "being deposed" type. I fear we'll all have to deal with him till he decides he's sick of it.



Yes, unless he gets "retired", Soviet Union era style.


----------



## J.Quondam

Thunderfoot said:


> So, ABC showed actual pictures of protesters inside Moscow.  This is, evidently, why Mr. Putin is blacklisting foreign media outlets; He thinks they are poisoning the minds of the youth with Western ideals and fake news.  lol



Yep. Can't let those pesky western outlets compete with the real news, after all....








						Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won’t believe me'
					

These Ukrainians say their Russian relatives only trust the narratives they see on TV at home.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Aeson

Look at that puppy. He's so cute. 

Sorry, I had to do it. I was reading the story in the link. It's horrible. Almost the opposite of a story I heard earlier. A person living here in the US was on the phone with their mother back home, and could hear the shelling through the phone.


----------



## Mirtek

Horwath said:


> Also, Putin does not have "the red button", he can only give orders to military/navy/air force to use them. And I'm pretty sure generals would refuse that order as using one nuke might mean total destruction of Russian cities and military. And good part of European/North american cities also



Would they? Putin had a lot of time to handpick fanatically loyal people to be put at the right places. I would not put it past him if there are fully indoctrinated young soldiers, isolated from the outside with no information but what Kremlin feeds them are sitting at least some of the nukes.

If Putin comes to a point where he wants to take the world with him, he could have made sure that there will not be another Stanislav Petrov preventing nuclear armageddon.


----------



## Aeson

I think I see a new game. "Is it a dictator, or is it just French?"



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/food/2022/03/07/poutine-putin-confusion/


----------



## Morrus

Aeson said:


> I think I see a new game. "Is it a dictator, or is it just French?"
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/food/2022/03/07/poutine-putin-confusion/



Articles like that make me very skeptical. Some of these things I find it hard to believe happened, or if they did, more than once. Certainly not worthy of a newspaper.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> Would they? Putin had a lot of time to handpick fanatically loyal people to be put at the right places. I would not put it past him if there are fully indoctrinated young soldiers, isolated from the outside with no information but what Kremlin feeds them are sitting at least some of the nukes.
> 
> If Putin comes to a point where he wants to take the world with him, he could have made sure that there will not be another Stanislav Petrov preventing nuclear armageddon.




 There's two cases in the USSR where they refused to hit red button. One was a technical glitch the other someone paniced in 1962 iirc.


----------



## Umbran

Mirtek said:


> Would they? Putin had a lot of time to handpick fanatically loyal people to be put at the right places.




"He had time," isn't much in terms of evidence.

Do remember that the stories of fanatical loyalty in Russia come from Russia, or the USA in the Cold War, where there was a vested interest in generating fear.


----------



## Horwath

Mirtek said:


> Would they? Putin had a lot of time to handpick fanatically loyal people to be put at the right places. I would not put it past him if there are fully indoctrinated young soldiers, isolated from the outside with no information but what Kremlin feeds them are sitting at least some of the nukes.
> 
> If Putin comes to a point where he wants to take the world with him, he could have made sure that there will not be another Stanislav Petrov preventing nuclear armageddon.



I doubt that you can be that suicidal and have competence to get to that level of clearance.

Soldiers can be persuaded to attack something as long as they believe that there is a chance of survival, or that they are giving their life so their loved ones can live on.

The moment Russian launch one ballistic missile, they are all dead(OK not all, but 80-90% of them), the moment NATO detects a ballistic missile launch they WILL retaliate with half of their available nukes. You need to keep something in reserve for just in case.


----------



## Morrus

Horwath said:


> I doubt that you can be that suicidal and have competence to get to that level of clearance.
> 
> Soldiers can be persuaded to attack something as long as they believe that there is a chance of survival, or that they are giving their life so their loved ones can live on.
> 
> The moment Russian launch one ballistic missile, they are all dead(OK not all, but 80-90% of them), the moment NATO detects a ballistic missile launch they WILL retaliate with half of their available nukes. You need to keep something in reserve for just in case.



I love armchair nuclear strategy experts.


----------



## payn

Morrus said:


> I love armchair nuclear strategy experts.









Are armchairs part of the standard bunker package?


----------



## Horwath

Morrus said:


> I love armchair nuclear strategy experts.



no need to be expert.

It's just M.A.D. doctrine. It kept all of us safe from nuclear attacks for 60+ years.


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> no need to be expert.
> 
> It's just M.A.D. doctrine. It kept all of us safe from nuclear attacks for 60+ years.




Current action seems less to be about mutually assured destruction, and more about avoiding testing who is actually going to hold to a generations-old doctrine.


----------



## Morrus

Horwath said:


> no need to be expert.
> 
> It's just M.A.D. doctrine. It kept all of us safe from nuclear attacks for 60+ years.



Well, let's look at that shall we?

You stated "the moment NATO detects a ballistic missile launch they WILL retaliate with half of their available nukes". You then described that as the MAD doctrine. There's no such policy. Let's look at two NATO nuclear powers:

The British nuclear response policy isn't "the moment they detect a launch, respond with half their available nukes". The nuclear sub captains have sealed letters of action from the PM which tell them what to do in case London is destroyed. Until they open them, they don't know what those letters say.

The US has never adopted MAD as its nuclear strategy; it is just one of several well-known options. The USSR didn't even believe in MAD, because they always said that it was perfectly possible for them to survive a mass nuclear exchange.

Not only that, there have been false alarms of nuclear launches and yet here we are. No mass nuclear exchange.

So, back to where we started, I posit that your claim that "the moment NATO detects a ballistic missile launch they WILL retaliate with half of their available nukes" is not true.


----------



## BRayne

Clearly what will happen if Putin tries to launch nukes is there will be a coup and after the dust settles Nikolai Shulginov will be running the country.


----------



## payn

BRayne said:


> Clearly what will happen if Putin tries to launch nukes is there will be a coup and after the dust settles Nikolai Shulginov will be running the country.



One can only hope.


----------



## Zardnaar

American media is pushing the regime change angle to hard. 

Everyone around Putin in essence is guilty so they can't plead it wasn't me. Not talking about current fun and games just in general. 

 This goes down to the regional level and mayor's. Regimes basically a klepocracy and a patronage based system.

 There's no politburo to remove him like Krushchev. There's no designated successor or number 2. 

 It's not even clear who would take over if he died. Theoretically it's the prime minister but it's not hard coded as I understand it.

 Even Hitler had a designated successor (Goring) from a legal PoV


----------



## Aeson

Morrus said:


> Articles like that make me very skeptical. Some of these things I find it hard to believe happened, or if they did, more than once. Certainly not worthy of a newspaper.



Certainly not a newspaper like The Washington Post. Yet, I buy it. Remember the treatment Asians have faced since the pandemic started. Russians and things considered connected to Russia are now getting similar treatment. A lot of people are ignorant of the larger world around them, and lack the intelligence to understand that ignorance, and are often lead to do and say stupid things. This is just on the lighter, and sillier side of that.


----------



## Mannahnin

Zardnaar said:


> American media is pushing the regime change angle to hard.



Is it?  News to me.  But it's never hard to find at least a few cheerleaders for war.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mannahnin said:


> Is it?  News to me.  But it's never hard to find at least a few cheerleaders for war.




 Atm it's more wishful thinking.


----------



## Mezuka

_"Twisted Sister’s We’re Not Gonna Take It was a hair-metal ode to teen angst when it came out in 1984. Over the past week, it has gained new fame as a resistance anthem in Ukraine and the band’s lead singer, Dee Snider, is totally cool with that. His grandfather was Ukrainian and Snider has given his blessing to use his song.
Aired: March 5, 2022"



			https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-14-day-6
		

_


----------



## Thunderfoot

Re: Nuclear doctrine...  Part of the original nuclear program was global thermo nuclear war;  meaning everyone was involved.  Currently, China and India have decided that this is not the time to get involved, so a nuclear strike would be from Russia/Belarus only.  This is considered a European strike and would be met by a limited response.  Western European based short and medium range strikes and Alaskan medium strikes as well as a few naval based attacks.  This would come after several conversations with China and India to ensure this isn't a first strike response on their territories.  

If this were a perfect situation the response would be from front line troops using tactical neutron strikes instead of strategic hydrogen attacks, but we aren't positioned for that at the moment.  Also, while Mr. Putin is in charge and pushing this assault, the general staff has latitude, especially when the nuclear option is on the table.  It's backward from the US but the result is the same, no one person has the ability to screw the pooch.  Let's hope we don't have to test the theory.


----------



## billd91

Morrus said:


> So, back to where we started, I posit that your claim that "the moment NATO detects a ballistic missile launch they WILL retaliate with half of their available nukes" is not true.



It may be a simplistic claim, sure, but that doesn't mean that MAD wasn't effectively adopted. It was just never formally declared as such because it would look bad. But we absolutely had major population centers as our targets and the Soviets, based on a number of sources (including Khrushchev), were skeptical of limited nuclear exchanges. It was deep enough in doctrine to lead to the ABM treaty.


----------



## trappedslider

Zardnaar said:


> There's two cases in the USSR where they refused to hit red button. One was a technical glitch the other someone paniced in 1962 iirc.



The technical glitch was 26 September 1983 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident - Wikipedia

Nuclear war was averted in '62 due to the submarine commander saying no The Man Who Saved the World ~ Preview | Secrets of the Dead | PBS

In General, there are two types of nuclear strikes counter value and counterforce. CV is targeting cities, mining sites, an out-of-the-way airport, etc. Counterforce is military targets/ command and control.

I could go on into a ton of information regarding nuclear weapons use planning on both sides including the UK but this thread isn't the place for it.

EDIT: And if you're really interested I can recommend a number of books on the topic.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Even Hitler had a designated successor (Goring) from a legal PoV




You know, when you feel it is a good idea to bring up Hitler as a comparison... you're talking too much about politics for EN world.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> It may be a simplistic claim, sure, but that doesn't mean that MAD wasn't effectively adopted.




It seems to me that this is an argument over an unprovable point.  Since the doctrine was never employed, this is an argument over whether they _would have_ done so - a complete hypothetical.


----------



## FrogReaver

My take:

NATO defending non-NATO countries from Russia can be argued to be the morally right thing to do.  But it does not appear to be the strategically correct thing to do.  NATO functions best when countries join for mutual defense - and if NATO defends those not in NATO then there’s no point in other countries joining NATO.

Not intervening also paints Russia/Putin as the clear aggressor and builds international consensus around cutting ties with Russia via sanctions and business pullout.  For the West this is likely a more devastating and longer lasting victory than militarily pushing Russia out of Ukraine.

The sanctions and business pullouts also function as a deterrent to other countries in the future as it shows the cost of aggressive wars even if the west doesn’t join them militarily is far higher than otherwise calculated.

It makes no strategical sense to try and prevent nuclear war by allowing nuclear powers to take what they want via military might just because they have nukes to shield them.  Such a philosophy may spare us today but it almost inevitably leads to a future where nuclear war becomes more likely, not less.  So IMO I don’t believe the west is militarily staying out to prevent world war 3 and nuclear Armageddon, that’s just a convenient excuse IMO. It’s really because it’s in their strategical interests to not get militarily involved.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> My take:
> 
> NATO defending non-NATO countries from Russia can be argued to be the morally right thing to do.  But it does not appear to be the strategically correct thing to do.  NATO functions best when countries join for mutual defense - and if NATO defends those not in NATO then there’s no point in other countries joining NATO.
> 
> Not intervening also paints Russia/Putin as the clear aggressor and builds international consensus around cutting ties with Russia via sanctions and business pullout.  For the West this is likely a more devastating and longer lasting victory than militarily pushing Russia out of Ukraine.
> 
> The sanctions and business pullouts also function as a deterrent to other countries in the future as it shows the cost of aggressive wars even if the west doesn’t join them militarily is far higher than otherwise calculated.
> 
> It makes no strategical sense to try and prevent nuclear war by allowing nuclear powers to take what they want via military might just because they have nukes to shield them.  Such a philosophy may spare us today but it almost inevitably leads to a future where nuclear war becomes more likely, not less.  So IMO I don’t believe the west is militarily staying out to prevent world war 3 and nuclear Armageddon, that’s just a convenient excuse IMO. It’s really because it’s in their strategical interests to not get militarily involved.




 The risk isn't 0 but if you give into nuclear blackmail they'll just keep doing it. So you have to cave or eventually say no. 

  Side tangent on r/Ukraine there's a bot. If you type Russian Soldier/Ship/Tank the bot responds by f bombing the relevant comment. Basically the snake island response. 

 Then someone says something like "good bot".


----------



## Thunderfoot

FrogReaver said:


> My take:
> 
> NATO defending non-NATO countries from Russia can be argued to be the morally right thing to do.  But it does not appear to be the strategically correct thing to do.<SNIP>



You can change that from 'appears to be' to 'is not' the correct thing.  NATO is a defenseive agreement and would be at fault if it went on the offensive for a non-member nation.  The UN under the auspices of peace keeping _can_ intervene, but the likelyhood is much smaller, the same troops would be committed but, the command & control would be much, much different.


----------



## FrogReaver

Thunderfoot said:


> You can change that from 'appears to be' to 'is not' the correct thing.  NATO is a defenseive agreement and would be at fault if it went on the offensive for a non-member nation.  The UN under the auspices of peace keeping _can_ intervene, but the likelyhood is much smaller, the same troops would be committed but, the command & control would be much, much different.



NATO was involved in Serbia/Kosovo


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> NATO was involved in Serbia/Kosovo




 I remember that. It's a favorite Russian distraction. 

 BUT the arguements they're using I remember from 1999 anti NATO crowd so it's not new.


----------



## NotAYakk

One of my ex coworkers has family (parents and at least one sibling) in occupued Ukraine right now.

The gofundme to help them support other people in the area is pretty likely to be scam safe (for me).


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> I remember that. It's a favorite Russian distraction.
> 
> BUT the arguements they're using I remember from 1999 anti NATO crowd so it's not new.



Not sure I follow your point.


----------



## Zardnaar

FrogReaver said:


> Not sure I follow your point.




 It's a popular whataboutism for pro Russia types along with Iraq, Yemen etc. 

 Usually used to counter arguements about NATO being defensive alliance. 

 There's basically a big bananasquirrel list of reasons justifying the "special military operation".

 I suppose we're doing a "special economic westward expansion" as a response.


----------



## FrogReaver

Zardnaar said:


> It's a popular whataboutism for pro Russia types along with Iraq, Yemen etc.
> 
> Usually used to counter arguements about NATO being defensive alliance.



Im not pro Russia by any stretch.  

All I’m saying is that NATO has taken military actions in regions that haven’t attacked a NATO country.  If they have done it before the question isn’t whether they can, it’s why they chose not to this time.

Which counters the point that NATO cannot get involved this time.


----------



## Thunderfoot

FrogReaver said:


> NATO was involved in Serbia/Kosov



NATO was acting under UN authority.  They were there as a peacekeeping force.  Again, if the UN authorizes action, THEN they can move as a NATO representative of the UN.  Go back and check your sources.  I was assigned in support of those operations, just so you know.


----------



## trappedslider

don't mess with granny A grandma in Kyiv says she took out a suspicious drone while Russia was attacking by throwing a jar of pickled tomatoes at it


----------



## FrogReaver

Thunderfoot said:


> NATO was acting under UN authority.  They were there as a peacekeeping force.  Again, if the UN authorizes action, THEN they can move as a NATO representative of the UN.  Go back and check your sources.  I was assigned in support of those operations, just so you know.



Didn’t know that but you are correct.


----------



## Thunderfoot

FrogReaver said:


> Didn’t know that but you are correct.



No hard feelings, the argument is somewhat colored because the Security Council didn't sign off but the General Assembly did, that's why they didn't wear the funny blue hats.


----------



## Horwath

Umbran said:


> Current action seems less to be about mutually assured destruction, and more about avoiding testing who is actually going to hold to a generations-old doctrine.



hey, whatever works. 

Just as long so I do not have to use my bad-to-mediocre longbow skills for hunting fluorescent rats and stray cats and dogs for food :/
(If anyone survives the initial attack that is)


----------



## Ulfgeir

Thunderfoot said:


> So apparently the Russians are violating Swedish airspace.   Cue ominous music...



They do that now and again, but they haven't done it with multiple planes at the same time as far as I know. And since it took place while the Swedish and the Finnish ministers of defence were having a meeting at Gotland, it was definitively a subtle threat against even thinking about joining NATO.

EDIT: posted this while catching up on the thread before seeing the mods notices further down in the thread.


----------



## Aeson

trappedslider said:


> don't mess with granny A grandma in Kyiv says she took out a suspicious drone while Russia was attacking by throwing a jar of pickled tomatoes at it



Is that the same grandma that told a Russian soldier to put sunflower seeds in his pocket so when he died sunflowers would grow? Some of the stories coming out of this are amusing.


----------



## Aeson

A bundle for Ukraine. Tons of games for $10.









						Bundle for Ukraine by Necrosoft Games and 738 others
					

Bundle for Ukraine: 998 items for $10.00



					itch.io


----------



## Thunderfoot

Ulfgeir said:


> They do that now and again, but they haven't done it with multiple planes at the same time as far as I know. And since it took place while the Swedish and the Finnish ministers of defence were having a meeting at Gotland, it was definitively a subtle threat against even thinking about joining NATO.
> 
> EDIT: posted this while catching up on the thread before seeing the mods notices further down in the thread.



Yeah, it might have the reverse effect though.  Finland seemed very interested in moving from partner in peace to 'keep the Russians off our lawn'.


----------



## Zardnaar

Thunderfoot said:


> Yeah, it might have the reverse effect though.  Finland seemed very interested in moving from partner in peace to 'keep the Russians off our lawn'.




 Finn's know a thing or to about incoming Russians. 


 And look at it now.


----------



## Thunderfoot

So after researching member nation of the current UN Security Council, I have a firm grasp on how a vote on UN peacekeeping operations would go.
This is an opinion based on information that is freely available.  It is my opinion only but, using techniques I learned while on active duty it's probably not too far off the mark.  This should answer the question, why hasn't this happened. 

_This post is not meant to assign blame, accuse an country of wrong doing or dismiss the severity of the situation...It is informative ONLY_

Votes for Action: US, UK, France, Norway .. as members of NATO and with 'skin in the game' these nations would be a lock.

Most likely a yes: Ireland, and Albania.  Both of these nations have had diplomatic ties to Russia in the last 40 years, however, relations have soured with both in the last 5 - 10 years with both countries condemning the recent invasion.

No votes: Russia, Kenya, Gabon, Ghana
Obviously Russia would condemn a UN peacekeeping action against them but the three African countries named have too much invested in Russia to 'bite the hand that feeds them'.  Even though they have been mostly neutral in the General Assembly, their SecCoun votes would be enough to spoil a 2/3rds majority.

Possible no votes: UAE
UAE has been a strange mercurial player on the world stage.  They don't want Islamic Jihadists or extremists ruling the Middle East (ie Iran) but also don't support Western openness characterized as Zionism.  Russia has been very open to supporting their operations in defense of Iran without requesting more diplomatic openness to the Israeli state.  While they _most likely_ would abstain, there is a chance that they would vote no in order to garner diplomatic clout.

Abstention: China, India, Mexico, and Brazil
All four nations have very close diplomatic and economic ties with Russia, tourism is also very much a commodity among these nations. However, none of these nations currently have the want or need to support either side politically.  This stance keeps them neutral on the world stage and allows them to supply whatever or both sides during a conflict.

Final Tally: 4(6) Yea  4(5) Nay 4(7) Abstain.
These numbers mean no direct UN action outside of General Assembly sanctions and finger wagging is incoming.
Now all this could change IF Russia pushes the nuclear option (UN GenAss'y could call for action with a vote overriding SecCon vote), Genocide becomes a major issue (GenAss'y could activate UNICEF and a UN peacekeeping guard with none SecCon membership - usually smaller nations that otherwise wouldn't participate, in this case most likely African nations that Russia has ties with in order to ensure Russia doesn't attack UNICEF ops) or the President of the GenAss'y could ask NATO to intervene, though at this point that seems unlikely.

Hopefully this answers all those questions without crossing any lines or inciting anger from outraged posters.  (ie don't shoot the messenger).


----------



## Zardnaar

I don't think they need UN permission to intervene. 

 If they do they'll dress it up as a humanitarian mission. Ukraine asks for aid send in a convoy or whatever if anything happens article 5.

 What's Russia gonna do diplomatically go complain to the UN NATO is shooting them?


----------



## Rabulias

Thunderfoot said:


> No votes: Russia, Kenya, Gabon, Ghana
> Obviously Russia would condemn a UN peacekeeping action against them but the three African countries named have too much invested in Russia to 'bite the hand that feeds them'.  Even though they have been mostly neutral in the General Assembly, their SecCoun votes would be enough to spoil a 2/3rds majority.
> 
> Abstention: China, India, Mexico, and Brazil
> All four nations have very close diplomatic and economic ties with Russia, tourism is also very much a commodity among these nations. However, none of these nations currently have the want or need to support either side politically.  This stance keeps them neutral on the world stage and allows them to supply whatever or both sides during a conflict.



I agree with much of your analysis, but Kenya, Gabon, Ghana, Mexico, and Brazil all voted to condemn Russia's invasion, and Kenya's UN ambassador gave a strong rebuke to Russia in his speech, which I quoted here (Ukraine invasion). I think some of them could be swayed by the rest, which might be enough.

However, Russia (along with China, possibly) would outright veto the resolution, which is a much shorter route to the end result than your analysis.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Rabulias said:


> I agree with much of your analysis, but Kenya, Gabon, Ghana, Mexico, and Brazil all voted to condemn Russia's invasion, and Kenya's UN ambassador gave a strong rebuke to Russia in his speech, which I quoted here (Ukraine invasion). I think some of them could be swayed by the rest, which might be enough.
> 
> However, Russia (along with China, possibly) would outright veto the resolution, which is a much shorter route to the end result than your analysis.



Well, I stated that they had publically condemned the actions in the General Assembly and in other diplomatic means.  However, making a statement of 'Brah, really?' and authorizing action against them are far afield.  Especially since all of the countries named have massive inport/export and tourism economies at stake.  There is history of countries using harsh language in the GenAss'y and then backing off in the SecCon, as well. Usually only the Standing 5 tend to do and say in both places.  China abstained in the GenAss'y vote for sanctions, which is why I think they would also vote for the same in SecCon.  This is a departure for China which could mean another agenda for them, but thay's a different discussion and one that wouldn't last long on here.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Zardnaar said:


> I don't think they need UN permission to intervene.
> 
> If they do they'll dress it up as a humanitarian mission. Ukraine asks for aid send in a convoy or whatever if anything happens article 5.
> 
> What's Russia gonna do diplomatically go complain to the UN NATO is shooting them?



Then you haven't paid attention to how the UN/NATO operate.  They tend to move at a more cautious pace unless prompted by certain diplomatic actions.  NATO WILL NOT commit troops without a blessing from the UN, unless Russia violates a sovereign NATO state.  It keeps them from being aggressors.   In this case it is essentially, "we aren't going to do what you just did."    It's why Mr. Putin's ability to 'false flag' is going to be hard to accomplish.  The paper trail of the NATO Militaries are almost as long as their supply trains, maybe longer.


----------



## Horwath

Tu-141 "Strizh" Missile-Like Drone From The War In Ukraine Looks To Have Crashed In Croatia (Updated)
					

The mysterious craft that slammed into Croatia's capital appears to be a Soviet-era jet-powered drone that only Ukraine operates.




					www.thedrive.com
				




well... nice navigation asshats!


----------



## Umbran

Thunderfoot said:


> So after researching member nation of the current UN Security Council, I have a firm grasp on how a vote on UN peacekeeping operations would go.




I'm sorry, but after doing all that research, you have apparently missed that Russia has a _VETO_ in the Security Council, such that the rest of the votes are irrelevant.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> I don't think they need UN permission to intervene.




Need, in an absolute sense?  No.

But they are extremely unlikely to put boots on the ground in a non-NATO country without UN backing.


----------



## Rabulias

Thunderfoot said:


> Well, I stated that they had publically condemned the actions in the General Assembly and in other diplomatic means.  However, making a statement of 'Brah, really?' and authorizing action against them are far afield.  Especially since all of the countries named have massive inport/export and tourism economies at stake.



If those nations rely on economic ties to Russia, they need to think strategically and find a way to end this quickly. It looks to me like the Russian economy is not going to be in a position to help them as much. Yes, you don't bite the hand that feeds you, but you might bark a warning when you see that same hand headed into a wood chipper.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Umbran said:


> I'm sorry, but after doing all that research, you have apparently missed that Russia has a _VETO_ in the Security Council, such that the rest of the votes are irrelevant.



Well, there is that.  lol  It was in response to the why doesn't....  questions that keep coming up. Russia could veto, but, is highly unlikely they would.  They don't need to and can save it for another day.  (Not that they need to do that either.)


----------



## Umbran

Thunderfoot said:


> Russia could veto, but, is highly unlikely they would.




But, they _already have_! On February 26th, they vetoed a Security Council resolution demanding they stop their invasion. So any resolution about putting troops in to stop them is almost certain to get a veto. (Russia blocks Security Council action on Ukraine)

Traditionally, Russia, and the Soviet Union before them, have had little to no compunction against using the veto in their own interests.  They _do not care_ what the world thinks of this.  They have no interest in the political play of restraining their voting, relying on other states to vote no for them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> But, they _already have_! On February 26th, they vetoed a Security Council resolution demanding they stop their invasion. So any resolution about putting troops in to stop them is almost certain to get a veto. (Russia blocks Security Council action on Ukraine)
> 
> Traditionally, Russia, and the Soviet Union before them, have had little to no compunction against using the veto in their own interests.  They _do not care_ what the world thinks of this.  They have no interest in the political play of restraining their voting, relying on other states to vote no for them.




 That's not exclusive to the USSR/Russia to be fair.


----------



## Zardnaar

Well some of you may have known my pre Covid plan for eastern Europe. Was trying to talk my wife, and her sisters family into eastern European holiday. 

 Moldova-Kiev&Baltic States, SPB-Moscow down Volga-trans Siberian, Vladivostok, Japan-NZ or at least a section based on budget, visas etc. 

 Better times. 


 Cool city wanted to go there.


----------



## J.Quondam

Yeah, for a few years before covid and the war, I'd been thinking I might try relocating to Ukraine for a while. Also wanted to do a long trip through China at some point. But it's looking like neither will ever happen now. 

Geopolitics certainly has a way of messing things up for all us little people... and it's way more messed up for some than for others.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> That's not exclusive to the USSR/Russia to be fair.




Yeah, but not the point.


----------



## Aeson

I would love to have the ability to veto repercussions for something I did wrong.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Umbran said:


> But, they _already have_! On February 26th, they vetoed a Security Council resolution demanding they stop their invasion. So any resolution about putting troops in to stop them is almost certain to get a veto. (Russia blocks Security Council action on Ukraine)
> 
> Traditionally, Russia, and the Soviet Union before them, have had little to no compunction against using the veto in their own interests.  They _do not care_ what the world thinks of this.  They have no interest in the political play of restraining their voting, relying on other states to vote no for them.



I wasn't aware of this vote.  Thanks for that.  Soooo, that being said...  The UN will not be sending a peacekeeping force, this means that if the UN President decides that Russia is any imminent threat to world security and with backing of the GenAss'y (I believe it was greater then 2/3 in favor of sanctions but can't access that info atm) he could authorize NATO intervention.  This would.make NATO a UN agent but not a peacekeeping force, this means that while acting in the interests of the UN, any actions taken would be seen as aggression by Russia, but as long as formal war isn't declared (which is highly unlikely on NATOs part) if no expansionist actions are taken (ie defensive movements and relief of current Russian occupied Ukrainian lands, and not forays into Russian and Belarussian territories for the purpose of occupation (insurgency strikes are a grey area))  they would receive a full pardon from non-actionable (read - war crimes) military movements.   Is all this clear as mud?  Aren't the rules of modern warfare great?  See all the crap you have to contend with just to shoot someone who shot at you or your friends first?


----------



## Zardnaar

Thunderfoot said:


> I wasn't aware of this vote.  Thanks for that.  Soooo, that being said...  The UN will not be sending a peacekeeping force, this means that if the UN President decides that Russia is any imminent threat to world security and with backing of the GenAss'y (I believe it was greater then 2/3 in favor of sanctions but can't access that info atm) he could authorize NATO intervention.  This would.make NATO a UN agent but not a peacekeeping force, this means that while acting in the interests of the UN, any actions taken would be seen as aggression by Russia, but as long as formal war isn't declared (which is highly unlikely on NATOs part) if no expansionist actions are taken (ie defensive movements and relief of current Russian occupied Ukrainian lands, and not forays into Russian and Belarussian territories for the purpose of occupation (insurgency strikes are a grey area))  they would receive a full pardon from non-actionable (read - war crimes) military movements.   Is all this clear as mud?  Aren't the rules of modern warfare great?  See all the crap you have to contend with just to shoot someone who shot at you or your friends first?




 That's the diplomatic route. Push comes to shove great powers can do whatever the response will be whatever other nations chose to do or have the power to do. UN is just a glorified talking club. 

 They'll either use the general assembly to make things look good, do nothing or use article 5 depending on the situation and unfolding events. Or a few countries unilaterally intervene (realistically USA, UK, maybe France).


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Aeson said:


> I would love to have the ability to veto repercussions for something I did wrong.




I dunno.

I'm trying to imagine this in a real life scenario.

*Real Housewives of The United Nations Security Council*

Ms. Russia: What is this? Why are you you all waiting for me?

Ms. America: Because we care about you. China, what do you have to say?

Ms. China: Hey. I'm just here for the snacks. I'm not getting involved.

Ms. France: Well, I'll say it. We're worried about you, Russia. We've seen all the drinking. The empty bottles of vodka everywhere. Look at you. You can barely stand.

Ms. Russia: What .... what is this, an intervention? You ... YOU want ME to stop drinking my beloved vodka? 

Ms. United Kingdom: This is serious. We have a place picked out for you already at the rehab center, and ...

Ms. Russia: NYET! I AM EXERCISING MY VETO! Я люблю водку.


----------



## J.Quondam

Aeson said:


> I would love to have the ability to veto repercussions for something I did wrong.



Have you considered a career in politics?


----------



## Ryujin

A Historical Eurpoean Martial Arts equpment company based in the Czech Republic, that has their manufacturing located in Russia, is moving their facilities to Georgia (the country, not the US state), because their business is getting killed.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> A Historical Eurpoean Martial Arts equpment company based in the Czech Republic, that has their manufacturing located in Russia, is moving their facilities to Georgia (the country, not the US state), because their business is getting killed.




 I wouldn't move anything to Moldova or Georgia. They've also got unresolved issues with Russia.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> I wouldn't move anything to Moldova or Georgia. They've also got unresolved issues with Russia.



I'm frankly surprised that they aren't consolidating in the Czech Republic.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> I'm frankly surprised that they aren't consolidating in the Czech Republic.




 I'm guessing cheap labour. Or Georgia had offered them a tax break to "stick it" to Russia.


----------



## Ulfgeir

Zardnaar said:


> I'm guessing cheap labour. Or Georgia had offered them a tax break to "stick it" to Russia.



Probably the cheap labour. The EU has recently been not so happy with special tax-breaks. Ireland for example got criticized heavily as far as I recall.


----------



## Aeson

J.Quondam said:


> Have you considered a career in politics?



I wouldn't need to veto it. I would deny any wrong doing, and the party party would back me up. Except for a few young upstarts, the opposition would act if they never saw it happen.


----------



## Ryujin

Aeson said:


> I wouldn't need to veto it. I would deny any wrong doing, and the party party would back me up. Except for a few young upstarts, the opposition would act if they never saw it happen.



Time to found an international branch of The Rhinoceros Party. Join us. We have cake!


----------



## trappedslider

Someone today told me we should put Gabe Newell in charge of everything because it means World War 3 would never happen. Valve is just too allergic to that number.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Zardnaar said:


> That's the diplomatic route. Push comes to shove great powers can do whatever the response will be whatever other nations chose to do or have the power to do. UN is just a glorified talking club.
> 
> They'll either use the general assembly to make things look good, do nothing or use article 5 depending on the situation and unfolding events. Or a few countries unilaterally intervene (realistically USA, UK, maybe France).



Yeah, that thinking went out for western nations in WWI.  Even the first Gulf War was supposed to be about human rights (even though it was later revealed we were hoodwinked.)  The US 'tries' to be the good guy, they are rarely perceived this way or portrayed this way by media and the public.  

I liken the US to Joxer the Mighty from Xena Warrior Hottie.  He is 'technically' a hero, he tries very hard to do what is right and noble and usually ends up with egg on his face or derided for the effort.  And then occassionally, it pans out.  My opinion only, I ask no one else to subscribe to my newsletter.


----------



## Thunderfoot

Zardnaar said:


> I wouldn't move anything to Moldova or Georgia. They've also got unresolved issues with Russia.



Is next, Dva and Tree.


----------



## billd91

Thunderfoot said:


> Yeah, that thinking went out for western nations in WWI.  Even the first Gulf War was supposed to be about human rights (even though it was later revealed we were hoodwinked.)  The US 'tries' to be the good guy, they are rarely perceived this way or portrayed this way by media and the public.



We wish. But there’s a lot of kidding yourself in that statement. Realpolitik is alive and well.


----------



## Ryujin

Thunderfoot said:


> Yeah, that thinking went out for western nations in WWI.  Even the first Gulf War was supposed to be about human rights (even though it was later revealed we were hoodwinked.)  The US 'tries' to be the good guy, they are rarely perceived this way or portrayed this way by media and the public.
> 
> I liken the US to Joxer the Mighty from Xena Warrior Hottie.  He is 'technically' a hero, he tries very hard to do what is right and noble and usually ends up with egg on his face or derided for the effort.  And then occassionally, it pans out.  My opinion only, I ask no one else to subscribe to my newsletter.



Every nation portrays itself as the Good Guys, riding in on a white horse to save the day. Putin is doing that now, too. The other side doesn't see them as the hero and onlookers will come to their own conclusions.


----------



## Aeson

I don't know how I feel about a 15 year old singing about there being no more Russians. I guess I understand the sentiment. The video has some great imagery. It ends with this.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Help Ukrainian Families
					

Your help is urgently needed for families from Ukraine. Nearly 7 million people are fleeing for their lives to neighboring countries—leaving behind homes, jobs and everything familiar.




					support.crs.org


----------



## trappedslider

So, this is going on Actions - H.R.6869 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): To authorize the President of the United States to issue letters of marque and reprisal for the purpose of seizing the assets of certain Russian citizens, and for other purposes.

​


----------



## Zardnaar

trappedslider said:


> So, this is going on Actions - H.R.6869 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): To authorize the President of the United States to issue letters of marque and reprisal for the purpose of seizing the assets of certain Russian citizens, and for other purposes.
> 
> ​




 Could be profitable if you want to go to the Maldives my


----------



## Aeson

Letters of marque? Is this 2022 or 1722? Conscripting privateers to fight pirates? Hold on, let me get my Jolly Rancher flag.


----------



## Zardnaar

Aeson said:


> Letters of marque? Is this 2022 or 1722? Conscripting privateers to fight pirates? Hold on, let me get my Jolly Rancher flag.




 Not saying it's 1962 but I'll accept 1961 redux.

 It's like my 1992 model collection being blown up onscreen.


----------



## Hussar

Given the HUGE amount of money the US spends on "private contractors" in war zones, this probably isn't quite so much of a stretch as one might think.  It's not like outfits like Blackwater exist in a vacuum.


----------



## Thunderfoot

trappedslider said:


> So, this is going on Actions - H.R.6869 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): To authorize the President of the United States to issue letters of marque and reprisal for the purpose of seizing the assets of certain Russian citizens, and for other purposes.
> 
> ​



<sings>I wanna be a piiii rat.  In the queens naayyyy vy. I'll shoot and loot and wear cute boots and sail the deep bluuuuue sea.</sing>


----------



## trappedslider

Thunderfoot said:


> <sings>I wanna be a piiii rat.  In the queens naayyyy vy. I'll shoot and loot and wear cute boots and sail the deep bluuuuue sea.</sing>



NOT a pirate, a privateer and yes there is a difference lol

__
The mental image of how many trucks it would take makes this very amusing Russia threatens to pay foreign debts in rubles following sanctions


----------



## Ryujin

trappedslider said:


> The mental image of how many trucks it would take makes this very amusing Russia threatens to pay foreign debts in rubles following sanctions



The response: "No worries. We'll just foreclose on the loans and confiscate personal assets, to make up any shortfalls."


----------



## Imaculata

Today's meeting was interrupted by AA fire intercepting Russian missiles, where some of my collegues had to take shelter. 22 missiles were shot down. 8 landed near Poland. And yet we are still trying to do our daily standups and scrum meetings with our Ukrainian colleagues.

It is a mad world.


----------



## Morrus

We’ve got a charity product to announce imminently.


----------



## Horwath

Imaculata said:


> 8 landed near Poland.
> 
> It is a mad world.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Imaculata said:


> Today's meeting was interrupted by AA fire intercepting Russian missiles, where some of my collegues had to take shelter. 22 missiles were shot down. 8 landed near Poland. And yet we are still trying to do our daily standups and scrum meetings with our Ukrainian colleagues.
> 
> It is a mad world.



Sometimes Agile can be ridiculous.  DSUs no matter what!


----------



## darkwillow

Elon Musk challenged Vladir Putin to single combat.





Stakes are Ukraine.

He didn't mention what weapons though, I assume he wouldn't go hand-to-hand.


----------



## Thunderfoot

trappedslider said:


> NOT a pirate, a privateer and yes there is a difference lol
> 
> __
> The mental image of how many trucks it would take makes this very amusing Russia threatens to pay foreign debts in rubles following sanctions



I know..  but it doesn't flow correctly.  lol


----------



## Rabulias

A modest proposal: Let's release any claim over Putin's yacht, and let him freely use it.

Then let's give Ukraine some submarines. Have fun relaxing on that yacht, Vlad!


----------



## Zardnaar

Rabulias said:


> A modest proposal: Let's release any claim over Putin's yacht, and let him freely use it.
> 
> Then let's give Ukraine some submarines. Have fun relaxing on that yacht, Vlad!




 Australia bought them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> Today's meeting was interrupted by AA fire intercepting Russian missiles, where some of my collegues had to take shelter. 22 missiles were shot down. 8 landed near Poland. And yet we are still trying to do our daily standups and scrum meetings with our Ukrainian colleagues.
> 
> It is a mad world.




 What part of Poland are you in? On another site the Polish poster is right near the border and an airfield. He's said that it's been busy since the "special military operation" started.


----------



## Eltab

trappedslider said:


> The mental image of how many trucks it would take makes this very amusing Russia threatens to pay foreign debts in rubles following sanctions



A freighter sets sail from St. Petersburg heading to London (closest international finance center).  
The cargo manifest reads
Cargo: Currency - Rubles.
Owner: Swiss Bank Accounts #########, ######## ...


----------



## FitzTheRuke

darkwillow said:


> Elon Musk challenged Vladir Putin to single combat.




Putin would destroy him in single combat unless he built himself an electric exoskeleton.


----------



## Aeson

Eltab said:


> A freighter sets sail from St. Petersburg heading to London (closest international finance center).
> The cargo manifest reads
> Cargo: Currency - Rubles.
> Owner: Swiss Bank Accounts #########, ######## ...



A new Ocean's heist movie? Danny Ocean and his team steal a ship on the ocean. How meta.


----------



## Ryujin

Aeson said:


> A new Ocean's heist movie? Danny Ocean and his team steal a ship on the ocean. How meta.



And then go for a swim in a hold full of notes that are worth less than the paper they're printed on.


----------



## Nikosandros

Your browser is not able to display this video.




With all the carnage and destruction that we're seeing, I wanted to share this video of two Ukrainian refugees kids (age 10 and 8) being welcomed at a school in Pomigliano D'arco (southern Italy, close to Naples).

If you can read Italian, this is the source of the video.


----------



## Aeson

Ryujin said:


> And then go for a swim in a hold full of notes that are worth less than the paper they're printed on.



In the movie universe where their schemes actually work, the money isn't worthless, or they're hoping it's like bitcoin, and will go up in value again. They just have to hodl.


----------



## Zardnaar

Anti-War Protester Storms Russian State-Run TV During Evening Broadcast
					

"Go protest. Don’t be afraid of anything," news editor Marina Ovsyannikova said in a prerecorded video that circulated online. "They can’t lock us all away.”




					www.huffpost.com
				




 That's brave.


----------



## Rabulias

FitzTheRuke said:


> Putin would destroy him in single combat unless he built himself an electric exoskeleton.



I dunno. Putin is 71 years old, and Musk is 50. Musk claims to have some martial arts training (as does Putin). A judo match might be a thing. (Relative) youth vs experience.

Edited to add: More than likely this is just a way for Musk to get PR and keep his name in the news. :-/

Second edit: Correction: Putin is 69 years old.


----------



## Ryujin

Aeson said:


> In the movie universe where their schemes actually work, the money isn't worthless, or they're hoping it's like bitcoin, and will go up in value again. They just have to hodl.



In that same movie universe they thing that they're hijacking a shipload of Euros, only to find out that it's a bunch of worthless Rubles.


----------



## Ryujin

Rabulias said:


> I dunno. Putin is 71 years old, and Musk is 50. Musk claims to have some martial arts training (as does Putin). A judo match might be a thing. (Relative) youth vs experience.



Never bet against the guy who cut his chops working, and commanding a spy organization.


----------



## Rabulias

Ryujin said:


> Never bet against the guy who cut his chops working, and commanding a spy organization.



Yeah. Musk wins the match but is later found dead in the locker room, of no obvious cause....


----------



## Ryujin

Rabulias said:


> Yeah. Musk wins the match but is later found dead in the locker room, of no obvious cause....



More likely drops dead in the ring, apparently from the breeze of a near miss punch.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

Rabulias said:


> I dunno. Putin is 71 years old, and Musk is 50. Musk claims to have some martial arts training (as does Putin). A judo match might be a thing. (Relative) youth vs experience.
> 
> Edited to add: More than likely this is just a way for Musk to get PR and keep his name in the news. :-/




Musk's "martial arts" training is at a dojo. Putin's is probably from killing people with his bare hands. Youth and reach is definitely in Musk's favor, but I don't think it would beat Putin's killer instinct. Besides, Putin would probably have him poisoned before the match started, like a true pro.

(Tongue is firmly in cheek in this conversation, I hope everyone knows! Also: You beat me to it.)


----------



## Sacrosanct

Musk is an idiot.  He would lose.  Badly, and quickly.  There's a big difference between practicing in your dojo or for competition and practicing to kill.  Putin would be ruthless and go for the throat, engaging in "dirty" maneuvers that you don't learn in a dojo.  

It would be like all those guys in the first year of UFC who thought they were tough guys because they were karate black belts or ninjas (yes, there was a ninjitsu guy), and went up against street fighting grapplers.  Rude awakening is an understatement.


----------



## J.Quondam

Musk should have challenged Putin to a "trampoline" race to the moon instead. A little reminder of the collapse of the once-vaunted Russian space program might warm Putin's heart.


----------



## JEB

DM Guild now has some charity bundles for Doctors Without Borders efforts in Ukraine.


----------



## Imaculata

Zardnaar said:


> What part of Poland are you in? On another site the Polish poster is right near the border and an airfield. He's said that it's been busy since the "special military operation" started.



I'm in the Netherlands, but some of my Ukrainian colleagues are in Odessa.


----------



## Mannahnin

Sacrosanct said:


> Musk is an idiot.  He would lose.  Badly, and quickly.  There's a big difference between practicing in your dojo or for competition and practicing to kill.  Putin would be ruthless and go for the throat, engaging in "dirty" maneuvers that you don't learn in a dojo.
> 
> It would be like all those guys in the first year of UFC who thought they were tough guys because they were karate black belts or ninjas (yes, there was a ninjitsu guy), and went up against street fighting grapplers.  Rude awakening is an understatement.



6'1" or so vs. 5'7", 50 vs 71 is a major physical difference, and who knows how long Putin's been out of actual practice.  He may be as much degraded in operational effectiveness as his army.  Those karateka weren't getting beat up by septuagenarians.  

Impossible to really know for sure who would have the edge, as it's in Putin's interest to maintain his mythology even if hasn't actually grappled in years.  

Still silly as hell of Musk to try to arrogate to himself the role of Ukraine's champion.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> I'm in the Netherlands, but some of my Ukrainian colleagues are in Odesa.




 I worked with some Russians via Odessa. 

 Joke (via r/Ukraine).

  Alexei "Hey Sergey are we invading Odessa today"? Sergey: "Shut up Alexei and keep swimming"!


----------



## Morrus

Our charity product just launched on IndieGoGo. Please back the campaign if you can. Any amount, you get the PDF whether you pledge $1 or $100. 100% of the funds raised go to the Ukraine Humanitarian Appeal.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Mannahnin said:


> 6'1" or so vs. 5'7", 50 vs 71 is a major physical difference, and who knows how long Putin's been out of actual practice.  He may be as much degraded in operational effectiveness as his army.  Those karateka weren't getting beat up by septuagenarians.
> 
> Impossible to really know for sure who would have the edge, as it's in Putin's interest to maintain his mythology even if hasn't actually grappled in years.
> 
> Still silly as hell of Musk to try to arrogate to himself the role of Ukraine's champion.



Butterbean was beating the crud out of guys 10 years younger, much taller, and in better shape than him for a while.  Training counts for a lot, and that was against guys who were also expertly trained; Musk is not.  Also, Putin was trained not only in martial arts you'd find in a judo school, but KGB training which focuses on taking out the enemy as quickly as possible.  No rules.  And for a killing move.  You don't forget that, even if your body is older and less spry.  It's like when my 17 year old kid (who was in great shape--all star football and basketball player) challenged me to a match and I beat him in seconds.  Muscles help, but they don't help when you don't know how to defend against certain moves.  Sure, it matters a lot the longer the fight lasts, but I suspect a fight like this wouldn't last more than a few seconds.


----------



## Aeson

Morrus said:


> Our charity product just launched on IndieGoGo. Please back the campaign if you can. Any amount, you get the PDF whether you pledge $1 or $100. 100% of the funds raised go to the Ukraine Humanitarian Appeal.
> 
> View attachment 153452



The theme is a real nice touch. It helps to remind us what it's all about.


----------



## Ryujin

Mannahnin said:


> Still silly as hell of Musk to try to arrogate to himself the role of Ukraine's champion.



And maybe downright stupid of him to try and provoke a guy who literally nukes the junk of people he doesn't like.


----------



## South by Southwest

_"The Devil...the prowde spirite...cannot endure to be mocked."_

I say Musk's was a nice play.


----------



## darkwillow

JEB said:


> DM Guild now has some charity bundles for Doctors Without Borders efforts in Ukraine.



Is WOTC profiting with their usual 20% for those charity items?


----------



## darkwillow

Ryujin said:


> And maybe downright stupid of him to try and provoke a guy who literally nukes the junk of people he doesn't like.



He moved his satellite over Ukraine to provide internet... I think he is already balls deep.


----------



## Sacrosanct

darkwillow said:


> He moved his satellite over Ukraine to provide internet... I think he is already balls deep.



Seriously, with the word choice? Can we not, please?

*Edit I don't know why you think it's funny.  This is a site that doesn't allow swear words, and you think you're being clever by making a graphical sexual reference?


----------



## J.Quondam

darkwillow said:


> Is WOTC profiting with their usual 20% for those charity items?



It says "All proceeds to Doctors Without Borders."


----------



## Horwath

Sacrosanct said:


> Seriously, with the word choice? Can we not, please?
> 
> *Edit I don't know why you think it's funny.  This is a site that doesn't allow swear words, and you think you're being clever by making a graphical sexual reference?



You call Musk an idiot and then complain that someone uses a slang that every 12yo knows?

Be careful not to fall of your high horse


----------



## Sacrosanct

Horwath said:


> You call Musk an idiot and then complain that someone uses a slang that every 12yo knows?
> 
> Be careful not to fall of your high horse



Do you really see no difference in calling someone an idiot vs making a graphical sexual reference?  There are a lot of phrases 12 years know that aren't allowed on this site.  That seems a weak argument to make to defend the usage of it.


----------



## trappedslider

Sacrosanct said:


> Do you really see no difference in calling someone an idiot vs making a graphical sexual reference?  There are a lot of phrases 12 years know that aren't allowed on this site.  That seems a weak argument to make to defend the usage of it.



the satellites are shaped like balls, I'd just complain that the pun is terrible.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

darkwillow said:


> He moved his satellite over Ukraine to provide internet... I think he is already balls deep.



*Mod Note:*

That’s not exactly “Grandma Friendly” phrasing. It’s a bit cruder than usually tolerated here, “12yo” knowledge notwithstanding. Do better going forward.


----------



## Ancalagon

darkwillow said:


> Is WOTC profiting with their usual 20% for those charity items?



Well, some people are upset about that


----------



## darkwillow

Sacrosanct said:


> Seriously, with the word choice? Can we not, please?
> 
> *Edit I don't know why you think it's funny.  This is a site that doesn't allow swear words, and you think you're being clever by making a graphical sexual reference?



I think its hilarious you would think anyone under 40 years old is using this ancient forum and reading the Ukraine invasion thread, and that they would be offended by a satellite ball.  Unless you protecting the queen, in which case I apologize your majesty


----------



## J.Quondam

darkwillow said:


> I think its hilarious you would think anyone under 40 years old is using this ancient forum and reading the Ukraine invasion thread, and that they would be offended by a satellite ball.  Unless you protecting the queen, in which case I apologize your majesty



The point is that there _is_ a very long-standing "keep it clean" rule here, what mods refer to as "grandma friendly." It's in the TOS. And some folks even like that about this forum.


_* And I say this as someone who is exquisitely foul-mouthed in real-life._


----------



## BrokenTwin

As someone under forty reading this thread... hi?
I mean, not overly offended by the terminology, but I'm also a lot more colourful in my language when I'm not on this site, because the moderators of the site requested that its users mind their language, and I respect that desire.


----------



## Sacrosanct

darkwillow said:


> I think its hilarious you would think anyone under 40 years old is using this ancient forum and reading the Ukraine invasion thread, and that they would be offended by a satellite ball.  Unless you protecting the queen, in which case I apologize your majesty



You just joined this site.  Maybe if you read the ToS to this site, you'd know that the mods and admins and Morrus try to keep it pretty clean and not crude.  I mean, if you just joined less than 2 weeks ago, I'd think the ToS you agreed to would be fresh in your memory.  As @J.Quondam mentioned, this is not about little ol' me getting offended (I spent 6 years in the military, crude language isn't unknown to me), this is more about how we as posters agree to act by posting here.  And as they also said, I think that's a positive feature of this board, to avoid such immature crudeness in discourse.


----------



## Imaculata

darkwillow said:


> I think its hilarious you would think anyone under 40 years old is using this ancient forum and reading the Ukraine invasion thread, and that they would be offended by a satellite ball.  Unless you protecting the queen, in which case I apologize your majesty



Please keep it clean, and don't be snarky about it.


----------



## Morrus

darkwillow said:


> I think its hilarious you would think anyone under 40 years old is using this ancient forum



You’re gonna be rolling in the floor with laughter then.









						Another Year of EN World Demographics!
					

As I did last year, this is a look at EN World's demographics. This period is June 2020 to June 2021. The data reflects over 5M unique visitors and tens of millions of page views. The short version -- over the last year, the user base has become younger, and (slightly: 3%) less male. The average...




					www.enworld.org


----------



## darkwillow

Morrus said:


> You’re gonna be rolling in the floor with laughter then.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Another Year of EN World Demographics!
> 
> 
> As I did last year, this is a look at EN World's demographics. This period is June 2020 to June 2021. The data reflects over 5M unique visitors and tens of millions of page views. The short version -- over the last year, the user base has become younger, and (slightly: 3%) less male. The average...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.enworld.org



aww man, I'm so sorry to be the one to break it to you but google doesn't know anyones age or binary gender.  This is the old codger forum for people with facebook, if you want 25-35 you got to go to reddit, if you want 18-25 instagram and you want younger its tiktok.


----------



## Imaculata

darkwillow said:


> aww man, I'm so sorry to be the one to break it to you but google doesn't know anyones age or binary gender.  This is the old codger forum for people with facebook, if you want 25-35 you got to go to reddit, if you want 18-25 instagram and you want younger its tiktok.



He just gave you hard data. You're wrong.

And rude.


----------



## Ryujin

Imaculata said:


> He just gave you hard data. You're wrong.
> 
> And rude.



And I would add that arguing forum rules with the owner of the forum is a rather bad look, let alone telling him that the demographics that he prepared (with full access to the user list) is wrong, is just.... wrong.


----------



## BrokenTwin

Anyway, back to actually talking about the war...

It's looking more and more like Ukraine might actually have a chance at fending them off in the long run. Will be interesting to see if the end result is a return to the status quo for Ukraine and Russia. It would be a nice silver lining in all of this if the end result is the Russian people standing up and demanding a positive change in their own nation. Though that process will probably be bloody as well...


----------



## Alzrius

darkwillow said:


> aww man, I'm so sorry to be the one to break it to you but google doesn't know anyones age or binary gender.  This is the old codger forum for people with facebook, if you want 25-35 you got to go to reddit, if you want 18-25 instagram and you want younger its tiktok.



You're being obnoxious, bro.


----------



## South by Southwest

darkwillow said:


> aww man, I'm so sorry to be the one to break it to you but *google doesn't know anyones age or binary gender.*  This is the old codger forum for people with facebook, if you want 25-35 you got to go to reddit, if you want 18-25 instagram and you want younger its tiktok.



Yeah, they kind of do. I have friends who work for Google, and from what they've told me, the system knows a lot more about people than we usually suppose. Ask yourself this: how many times have you had to verify a Google-related login or sign-up with a phone number?

And as others have said, please don't bash the forum mods and the owner--that's not something that ends well. This site has a strict-but-clear TOS whereby we don't each have to agree with the site's sense of decorum; we just have to refrain from violating it while logged in.


----------



## Ulfgeir

BrokenTwin said:


> Anyway, back to actually talking about the war...
> 
> It's looking more and more like Ukraine might actually have a chance at fending them off in the long run. Will be interesting to see if the end result is a return to the status quo for Ukraine and Russia. It would be a nice silver lining in all of this if the end result is the Russian people standing up and demanding a positive change in their own nation. Though that process will probably be bloody as well...




That is quite likely (that it will be long and possibly bloody). Depends on how much of the people that rises up, and how quickly the Russian leadership changes. For it to be lasting, it needs to come from the Russians, and not from outside sources. The question is, how close are the ties between Russia and China, and will China help prop up a failing Russia?

In the meanwhile, the suffering and costs needed to rebuild Ukraine keeps rising more and more the longer the conflict goes on.


----------



## Grendel_Khan

BrokenTwin said:


> It's looking more and more like Ukraine might actually have a chance at fending them off in the long run. Will be interesting to see if the end result is a return to the status quo for Ukraine and Russia. It would be a nice silver lining in all of this if the end result is the Russian people standing up and demanding a positive change in their own nation. Though that process will probably be bloody as well...




It's also possible that, at this point, his main objective is to flatten as much of Kyiv as possible before withdrawing. He needs to save face somehow, and footage of yet another capital shattered by Russian artillery could feed his propaganda machine for years. Luckily for Kyiv, Russia's bombers are largely held at bay by Ukrainian air defenses. But another week or so of standoff artillery and cruise missiles could still do horrendous damage.


----------



## South by Southwest

Ulfgeir said:


> *That is quite likely (that it will be long and possibly bloody). *Depends on how much of the people that rises up, and how quickly the Russian leadership changes. For it to be lasting, it needs to come from the Russians, and not from outside sources. The question is, how close are the ties between Russia and China, and will China help prop up a failing Russia?



I fear that's right. From what I've heard and read, it seems Putin cannot back out now, but the Ukrainians will never, ever submit to him or Russia. Ukraine will survive, I think, but there'll be a *lot* of pointless, murderous death first. Contrariwise, this looks like the biggest mistake of Putin's life; I don't see this ending well for him.


----------



## Ulfgeir

South by Southwest said:


> I fear that's right. From what I've heard and read, it seems Putin cannot back out now, but the Ukrainians will never, ever submit to him or Russia. Ukraine will survive, I think, but there'll be a *lot* of pointless, murderous death first. Contrariwise, this looks like the biggest mistake of Putin's life; I don't see this ending well for him.




Yeah, the question then, if defeat becomes a certainty; Will he be content with retreating into obscurity, or quietly take his own life? Or will he out of spite decide to make sure the whole world burns? I fear the latter option, and can only hope that that will be a bridge too far for the people surrounding him, and that they will do what they can to prevent it.


----------



## South by Southwest

Ulfgeir said:


> Yeah, the question then, if defeat becomes a certainty; Will he be content with retreating into obscurity, or quietly take his own life? Or will he out of spite decide to make sure the whole world burns? *I fear the latter option,* and can only hope that that will be a bridge too far for the people surrounding him, and that they will do what they can to prevent it.



That is both my fear and my current best guess. That guy doesn't let things go once he fixates on them.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

Ulfgeir said:


> Yeah, the question then, if defeat becomes a certainty; Will he be content with retreating into obscurity, or quietly take his own life? Or will he out of spite decide to make sure the whole world burns? I fear the latter option, and can only hope that that will be a bridge too far for the people surrounding him, and that they will do what they can to prevent it.




I know that a lot of us are worried, but I'm not sure that doomcasting and discussing worst-case scenarios helps.* It gives you the illusion of control, but usually only makes you feel worse.

What I have that works for me is to only occasionally keep up with the news, and to do positive things within my local community and to also look for opportunities to provide help and assistance to the people suffering in Ukraine. It's not much, but doing a little good helps me feel a little better. 


*I say this not to limit what you want to discuss, but only to note that when you are preoccupied with worst-case scenarios, you will naturally get stressed out. Given that you can't control this ... unless unbeknownst to us, Joe Biden spends a lot of time posting on enworld under a pseudonym, that stress can be unhealthy and bleed into your life. And I think we have all had enough stress the last few years.


----------



## BrokenTwin

Snarf Zagyg said:


> ... unless unbeknownst to us, Joe Biden spends a lot of time posting on enworld under a pseudonym, that stress can be unhealthy and bleed into your life. And I think we have all had enough stress the last few years.



I'm now picturing him and Barack Obama playing in a campaign together, and the mental image is hilarious. Michelle Obama would be running the game.


----------



## Snarf Zagyg

BrokenTwin said:


> I'm now picturing him and Barack Obama playing in a campaign together, and the mental image is hilarious. Michelle Obama would be running the game.




But for the rules of the forum, I would totally be analyzing what classes they would choose!


----------



## BrokenTwin

Snarf Zagyg said:


> But for the rules of the forum, I would totally be analyzing what classes they would choose!



Right? Like, I have no idea what class he would choose, but I'd totally stat Zelenskyy as a Paladin with the Entertainer background. And may add him as that as an NPC in my next campaign. 

Reminds me of this amazing image from my own country. Dated now, but still a gem.


----------



## Ancalagon

darkwillow said:


> aww man, I'm so sorry to be the one to break it to you but google doesn't know anyones age or binary gender.  This is the old codger forum for people with facebook, if you want 25-35 you got to go to reddit, if you want 18-25 instagram and you want younger its tiktok.



aww man, sorry to be the one breaking it to you, but google MONTITORS people very closely.  And this information is sold to 3rd parties so they can advertise to you better.

There was a news story a while ago about a store sending "baby advertising" to expecting mothers based on changes on their online behavior - so much so and so _early_ (often before they had told anyone!) that it was upsetting said mothers (who felt monitored).  So the stores started sending expecting mothers baby advertisement... along with a few random things mixed in (like a lawnmower) so it wouldn't feel so... intrusive.









						How Target Figured Out A Teen Girl Was Pregnant Before Her Father Did
					

Target has perfected the technique of analyzing consumers' shopping habits to figure out who's pregnant. How can they send customers congratulatory coupons without freaking them out?




					www.forbes.com
				




This was TEN YEARS ago.

So yeah, Morrus knows.  Sorry to burst your bubble.


----------



## Morrus

Let's stick to humanitarian efforts in Ukraine, folks. Thanks!


----------



## Ancalagon

BrokenTwin said:


> Right? Like, I have no idea what class he would choose, but I'd totally stat Zelenskyy as a Paladin with the Entertainer background. And may add him as that as an NPC in my next campaign.
> 
> Reminds me of this amazing image from my own country. Dated now, but still a gem.
> 
> View attachment 153526



There is an update!


----------



## Imaculata

Russian forces have moved closer to Odessa now. It won't be long before all hell breaks loose.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> Russian forces have moved closer to Odessa now. It won't be long before all hell breaks loose.




 They got defeated nearby lost an entire btg. Several cities in the way first.


----------



## John R Davis

Yup it will get much much worse as the monster moves in.
It's not charity Ukraine needs it's for the UN to do something to stop Putin, otherwise no amount of donations will prevent  future 10,000s of deaths and deportations.


----------



## Morrus

John R Davis said:


> Yup it will get much much worse as the monster moves in.
> It's not charity Ukraine needs it's for the UN to do something to stop Putin, otherwise no amount of donations will prevent  future 10,000s of deaths and deportations.



Well, charity is what we can do.


----------



## Aeson

Morrus said:


> Well, charity is what we can do.



Speaking of which....









						Stand with Ukraine Bundle
					

Support vital humanitarian crisis relief for the people of Ukraine with an all-to-charity bundle featuring games, books, and software.




					www.humblebundle.com
				




It's a bundle of a little of everything they tend to offer. There is less than 6 days left on it.


----------



## Ixal

Aeson said:


> Speaking of which....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Stand with Ukraine Bundle
> 
> 
> Support vital humanitarian crisis relief for the people of Ukraine with an all-to-charity bundle featuring games, books, and software.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.humblebundle.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's a bundle of a little of everything they tend to offer. There is less than 6 days left on it.



Im surprised thats WHFRPG 2E and not 4E.
Not that this is bad, 2E is the best edition


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Zardnaar said:


> Yup I've seen that but filed it in the rumors category.
> 
> There's a book floating around that explains their doctrine.
> 
> The head if the convoy is setting up a FOB it's 17 kilometers from Kiev.
> 
> But their artillery has a range of 24 lm iirc.
> 
> To us it looks like Hur dur their army sucks but they're apparently running it pretty much by the book. Their book anyway.
> 
> And their army is a bit more willing to soak some casualties as well vs a western one.
> 
> Unless their army routs, collapses or Ukraine can counter attack they're still winning.
> 
> I'm watching CNN, MSNBC, France 24 and DW. A bit if footage they're using went up on Reddit days ago so there's also that.
> 
> Our perception may also be a bit skewed because of it.



Dug a little more- the guy who started that thread discussion isn’t just some dude on the internet.  He’s a US military logistics specialist.  Not saying he’s RIGHT, but he’sworking from a more informed POV than most “experts”.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Dug a little more- the guy who started that thread discussion isn’t just some dude on the internet.  He’s a US military logistics specialist.  Not saying he’s RIGHT, but he’sworking from a more informed POV than most “experts”.




 Yes but the courage is skewed is more the main point. 

 A video emerged of rations with expiry date of 2015. But they never authenticated the video but we've had 3 weeks starving Russian troops. 

 Then again there's eating MRE's genre on YouTube always wondered how you can buy Russian rations online. Think we know why now. 

 I think plan A was probably shock and awe Ukraine collapse. Plan B is what they're doing. Same playbook as Aleppo, Grozny or even WW2. Call up the arty and let her rip. 

 The news also sanitizes the blood and guts not really showing Ukrainian lost equipment or dead (except civilians). 

 Russian army was gonna run out of oomph in 10 days. That was reported 7 days ago.  They're also pushing the Putin is mad/regime change angle. He's a ruthless evil bastard but he said point blank what he's gonna do. 

 Reddit has the videos and pictures they don't show on the news.


----------



## Imaculata

Dannyalcatraz said:


> Dug a little more- the guy who started that thread discussion isn’t just some dude on the internet.  He’s a US military logistics specialist.  Not saying he’s RIGHT, but he’sworking from a more informed POV than most “experts”.




He's making a point I've heard before, and which seems pretty accurate. If you have a regime that is basically a kleptocracy, then corruption runs all the way to the top. At every stage where maintenance of military gear had to be done, someone somewhere accepts a few bills under the table to do that job cheap and poorly. And then once it comes to actual fighting, that is when you see it all break down.


----------



## Aeson

I'd like to recommend the Prevail podcast with Greg Olear. Right now he's focusing more on Russia. The podcast is mostly about Russia's connection to our former president and way to political to discuss here. I just thought it might be interesting to some of you though.


----------



## trappedslider

Stand with Ukraine Bundle
					

Support vital humanitarian crisis relief for the people of Ukraine with an all-to-charity bundle featuring games, books, and software.




					www.humblebundle.com


----------



## John R Davis

You are definitely in the wrong Mr Putin when your shelling starts killing holocaust survivors.

(If that's gets me a warning I will wear it with pride).


----------



## moriantumr

I found time to drop an update. I brought the cake and a plan to work and my boss okayed it. A local tv station came and interviewed us for the evening news the second day we were running things. After that we have been making 6 cakes a day each day I am at work. We were backed up a week for call in orders at one point. Things have started to slow down now. We made about 1875 pieces of cake so far and raised about $4700 for Voices of Children so far. It has been an experience and I have learned a good bit about myself and the community. Overall, I am pleased with how things have turned out. 
Hope any of you who tried the recipe enjoyed it.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

I was just watching CNN, and they announced that- in a departure from their usual policy- Japan will be taking in Ukrainian refugees.

I _immediately_ thought this is a win-win for Japan.  In the short term, they’re being a good member of the international community by rendering aid.  In the long term, this could help them offset their negative population growth and help repopulate some of their “ghost towns”.

(Bonus: it’s a poke in The Bear’s eye.)


----------



## Aeson

I wonder if there's a country in the world Russia hasn't been in some kind of war with. Japan spanked them hard in the early 20th century. lol

This is great news for all involved.


----------



## Hussar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> I was just watching CNN, and they announced that- in a departure from their usual policy- Japan will be taking in Ukrainian refugees.
> 
> I _immediately_ thought this is a win-win for Japan. In the short term, they’re being a good member of the international community by rendering aid. In the long term, this could help them offset their negative population growth and help repopulate some of their “ghost towns”.
> 
> (Bonus: it’s a poke in The Bear’s eye.)




There’s actually a really large Ukrainian community here. It’s one of the bigger minorities.


----------



## Zardnaar

Aeson said:


> I wonder if there's a country in the world Russia hasn't been in some kind of war with. Japan spanked them hard in the early 20th century. lol
> 
> This is great news for all involved.




 UK still holds that record iirc. There's very few they haven't fought. 

 For the 20th century USA wins. 


 It's a favourite whataboutisn online.


----------



## Zardnaar

I've been using DW a lot it's German. 


 Basically I use YouTube as I don't actually have reception atm.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Hussar said:


> There’s actually a really large Ukrainian community here. It’s one of the bigger minorities.



That’s interesting!  And it might be a major factor in why they’re opening their borders to the Ukrainian refugees.  Besides the pleas fr9m those already in country, a settled Ukrainian populace will make it easier to deal with the practical matters of helping the refugees.  The mere availability of native speakers- especially those with an understanding of the host nation- is going to be a HUGE asset In those efforts.


----------



## Hussar

Granted Japans not going to win any awards for immigration but what there is does tend to have clumps. Nepalese and Ukrainian are probably the biggest minority groups in my area other than Korean of course but that’s a whole ‘nother can of worms.


----------



## Aeson

I can't remember if this has been posted already. 
Charity Navigator is a site that researches charities and rates them. It could be a good site to look at to investigate a charity before donating. 









						Charity Navigator - Your Guide To Intelligent Giving  | Home
					

Charity Navigator, the world's largest and most-utilized independent nonprofit evaluator, empowers donors of all sizes with free access to data, tools, and resources to guide philanthropic decision-making.




					www.charitynavigator.org


----------



## Imaculata

Just had a meeting with one of my Ukrainian colleagues in Odessa. Apparently they've destroyed another Russian warship. He says a lot of the Russians soldiers being sent to fight are just young boys who barely know how to drive a vehicle or fire a weapon, let alone hit a target. He seems optimistic about Ukraine's war efforts, with several areas of Kiev being back in Ukrainian hands. But even he realises this won't end any time soon. I cautioned him that this will get worse before it gets better. Chemical weapons might be next I fear.


----------



## Horwath

Imaculata said:


> Just had a meeting with one of my Ukrainian colleagues in Odessa. Apparently they've destroyed another Russian warship. He says a lot of the Russians soldiers being sent to fight are just young boys who barely know how to drive a vehicle or fire a weapon, let alone hit a target. He seems optimistic about Ukraine's war efforts, with several areas of Kiev being back in Ukrainian hands. But even he realises this won't end any time soon. I cautioned him that this will get worse before it gets better. Chemical weapons might be next I fear.



In every war young and stupid are sent to die on behalf of old and rich.


----------



## Ulfgeir

Horwath said:


> In every war young and stupid are sent to die on behalf of old and rich.



All too true.


----------



## Umbran

Imaculata said:


> He seems optimistic about Ukraine's war efforts, with several areas of Kiev being back in Ukrainian hands.




There is reason to be optimistic, if the question is whether his country will remain occupied.  The RAND corporation (who specialize in studies of military operations) has determined that, broadly speaking, if you want to hold a territory against minimal resistance, you need to have approximately 20 soldiers on the ground for every 1000 inhabitants of the region.

In Ukraine, that would mean the Russians need to have something like 800,000 troops in the area.  Note:  The Russian military at the moment, in total, including all branches, numbers about one million people.  And the Ukrainians are putting up well more than "minimal" resistance.  If the studies are correct, short of something that absolutely quells resistance, Russia can't really hope to hold the nation.

Unfortunately, they can hope to beat the crap out of Ukraine until they get some concessions.  



Imaculata said:


> Chemical weapons might be next I fear.




That's possible, but a risky choice for Russia.  It _might_ shock the Ukrainians into surrender, but it might not.  But it would almost certainly get Russia's remaining major trade partner, China, to walk away from them.  This would be damaging to Russia internally, and start a bit of a race: which comes first - surrender in Ukraine, or civil unrest in Russia?


----------



## NotAYakk

There are a bunch of EU/NATO/USA escalation options that have not been deployed short of attacking Russian territory directly.

Shutting off gas purchases, oil, selling jets, anti ship weapons, tanks, no fly zones (partial or full), arming other regions against Russia, moving troops into western Ukraine, blocking transit through Poland, attacking Belarus, converting frozen assets to seized assets, etc.

These are not going to be done lightly.  But Russia will know escalating to NBC warfare in Ukraine may result in escalation on the part of the West.

Even without China doing anything in response.

I doubt most of the above will be deployed here.  But doubt is not certainty.


----------



## Zardnaar

Interesting story about that convoy. 









						The drone operators who halted Russian convoy headed for Kyiv
					

Special IT force of 30 soldiers on quad bikes is vital part of Ukraine’s defence, but forced to crowdfund for supplies




					www.theguardian.com
				





 30 guys on quad bikes hot the head of the convoy by riding through the forest at night using night vision goggles and some drones.


----------



## John R Davis

It needs the UN to do something, not EU, NATO, etc.


----------



## Umbran

John R Davis said:


> It needs the UN to do something, not EU, NATO, etc.




With a Russian veto in the Security Council, there's very little that the UN can do.


----------



## John R Davis

Umbran said:


> With a Russian veto in the Security Council, there's very little that the UN can do.



They can put forward various resolutions that slowly stop certain countries from abstaining. Quite appalling behaviour and these actions shouldn't be forgotten.


----------



## Umbran

John R Davis said:


> They can put forward various resolutions that slowly stop certain countries from abstaining.




To what end?  It won't change Russian actions in Ukraine.  



John R Davis said:


> Quite appalling behaviour and these actions shouldn't be forgotten.




Russia's being a bully, but the UN is not built to stand up to bullies with vetoes on the Security Council.


----------



## John R Davis

Umbran said:


> To what end?  It won't change Russian actions in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's being a bully, but the UN is not built to stand up to bullies with vetoes on the Security Council.



So there is a chance they will in fact be United against the bully ( looking at you democracies in Africa, India, etc).
I can hope.

Or they sink his sitting duck Black Sea fleet.


----------



## Umbran

John R Davis said:


> So there is a chance they will in fact be United against the bully ( looking at you democracies in Africa, India, etc).
> I can hope.




Again, to what end?  "United against the bully" doesn't really mean anything unless it changes the bully's actions. 

Meanwhile, those abstaining at this point are generally doing so because Russia gives them something that they want/need, that they stand to lose if they cheese Russia off.  You want them to make symbolic gestures that won't change the situation, except for their being left in the lurch for something they need? 

I'm all for making some sacrifices for a cause, but only if those sacrifices are apt to be effective. 



John R Davis said:


> Or they sink his sitting duck Black Sea fleet.




The UN is not going to engage in direct violent action against Russian forces, because expanding the conflict is a good way to get WWIII, a thing the UN was nominally created to prevent.


----------



## Rabulias

Umbran said:


> Meanwhile, those abstaining at this point are generally doing so because Russia gives them something that they want/need, that they stand to lose if they cheese Russia off.  You want them to make symbolic gestures that won't change the situation, except for their being left in the lurch for something they need?



Good points all, but I will echo this. As I mentioned upthread, as Russia's economic outlook gets tighter, those abstaining today will see that handouts from Russia will shrink/dry up in the future as Russia continues this course of action. They should see their best interest lies with Russia ending their behavior as soon as possible and acting like a 21st century nation. Unfortunately, it may take a long time for this to become evident, and even once their client states recognize it and begin to vote against Russia, it may take a long time for Russia's behavior to change (if ever). Umbran has the right of it, sadly; UN intervention action requires the Security Council (not the UN General Assembly) approval, and as long as Russia has a veto, it will never pass.

This slow pace and building pressure is one of the most frustrating aspects of economic sanctions in the face of brutality.


----------



## Umbran

Rabulias said:


> Good points all, but I will echo this. As I mentioned upthread, as Russia's economic outlook gets tighter, those abstaining today will see that handouts from Russia will shrink/dry up in the future as Russia continues this course of action.




I question this. The war in Ukraine is all of a month old.  Those nations are (if they are smart) thinking on the orders of years and decades.  They are interested in maintaining good relations with Russia long term.  A couple of months here or there isn't the issue.


----------



## billd91

Rabulias said:


> Good points all, but I will echo this. As I mentioned upthread, as Russia's economic outlook gets tighter, those abstaining today will see that handouts from Russia will shrink/dry up in the future as Russia continues this course of action. They should see their best interest lies with Russia ending their behavior as soon as possible and acting like a 21st century nation. Unfortunately, it may take a long time for this to become evident, and even once their client states recognize it and begin to vote against Russia, it may take a long time for Russia's behavior to change (if ever).



It may also be about more than just economic interests with Russia. We may also be witnessing a resurgence of the Non-Aligned Movement to accompany the resurgence of the Cold War.


----------



## Horwath

Maybe this will mark the return of positive thinking about nuclear energy in EU(except France ofc).

We need 100+ new nuclear reactors in EU


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> Maybe this will mark the return of positive thinking about nuclear energy in EU(except France ofc).
> 
> We need 100+ new nuclear reactors in EU




I am not sure that helps matters, in that you still need fuel for those reactors.  Not a single country in the EU is in the top 10 list of known Uranium reserves, so with nuclear power, they still have a fuel import problem.  

True, Australia and Canada are on that list, so they have options for better energy trading partners, but still - broadly speaking, moving to nuclear may change the players the the geopolitics of energy, but doesn't remove the issue.


----------



## Zardnaar

Nuclear power isn't that viable anyway the reactors cost to much to build and no one wants the waste located anywhere near them. 

 This crisis one way or they other will be over long before the could start building a reactor let alone finish one. 

 Turns out there's consequences for making your economy reliant on crappy regimes.


----------



## NotAYakk

Umbran said:


> I am not sure that helps matters, in that you still need fuel for those reactors.  Not a single country in the EU is in the top 10 list of known Uranium reserves, so with nuclear power, they still have a fuel import problem.
> 
> True, Australia and Canada are on that list, so they have options for better energy trading partners, but still - broadly speaking, moving to nuclear may change the players the the geopolitics of energy, but doesn't remove the issue.



Importing fossil fuels is an industrial pipeline (or similar) problem requiring massive infrastructure.

Importing nuclear fuel could be done by post, if it wasn't so expensive.  "Fresh" fuel isn't very dangerous even (mainly heavy metals).

Mining nuclear fuel is dirty, but 1000x cleaner than hydrocarbons just due to lower volume.


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> Nuclear power isn't that viable anyway the reactors cost to much to build and no one wants the waste located anywhere near them.
> 
> This crisis one way or they other will be over long before the could start building a reactor let alone finish one.
> 
> Turns out there's consequences for making your economy reliant on crappy regimes.



Nuclear fuel waste is so small of a problem that reactors keep it on site for decades.  Literally decades.

The waste from other industrial processes mostly is dumped all over the place, because it is HUUGE in volume.

There is plenty of angst about nuclear fuel disposal.  But the joke is 10 year old nuclear fuel waste is less radioactive than the crap coal plants just dump up a smokestack.  Just insanely more concentrated.

We could dilute it and dump it and cause less cancer than the equivalent coal plant does.  Now that would be stupid, because we can.do insanely better; we can power the entire world for decades, and fit all of the waste in a single mine, and seal it up.  Or make breeder reactors and convert the waste into more fuel.

Of course, solar/wind is (or is becoming) cheaper per Joule.  It just can't provide power when people want to use it.


----------



## Zardnaar

NotAYakk said:


> Nuclear fuel waste is so small of a problem that reactors keep it on site for decades.  Literally decades.
> 
> The waste from other industrial processes mostly is dumped all over the place, because it is HUUGE in volume.
> 
> There is plenty of angst about nuclear fuel disposal.  But the joke is 10 year old nuclear fuel waste is less radioactive than the crap coal plants just dump up a smokestack.  Just insanely more concentrated.
> 
> We could dilute it and dump it and cause less cancer than the equivalent coal plant does.  Now that would be stupid, because we can.do insanely better; we can power the entire world for decades, and fit all of the waste in a single mine, and seal it up.  Or make breeder reactors and convert the waste into more fuel.
> 
> Of course, solar/wind is (or is becoming) cheaper per Joule.  It just can't provide power when people want to use it.




 Still doesn't change the cost or time requirements and consent process. 

 If they started tomorrow threw enough money at it the first new reactor might be online by 2032 at the earliest. Realistically more like 2042. 

 And even if they did that the reactor would still cost more than every other option.

 There's a good chance Putin dies of old age before any reactor comes online.


----------



## Rabulias

Umbran said:


> I question this. The war in Ukraine is all of a month old.  Those nations are (if they are smart) thinking on the orders of years and decades.  They are interested in maintaining good relations with Russia long term.  A couple of months here or there isn't the issue.



It does depend on the timeframe involved. I hope this ends sooner than later, but it could well drag on for years, and that is the timeframe I point to. The USSR spent 9 years in Afghanistan. Ukraine is a little smaller than Afghanistan, and the terrain is very different, but the population count is about the same and seems to be just as willing to fight back.


----------



## Rabulias

Huh. Just noticed that December will mark the 100th anniversary of the official establishment of the USSR. I wonder if this is providing any impetus for Putin's actions?


----------



## South by Southwest

My flummoxing has become so flummoxed over the past month that I no longer think I'm capable of any reliable predictions about what's going to happen in eastern Europe. We are so off-book from all the standard, accepted norms by now--it's nuts. If Mars attacks tomorrow, I'll feel a bit like I should've seen it coming even though I didn't.


----------



## NotAYakk

There is a youtuber called Adam Somthing who almost a year ago prognosticated Russia would invade Ukraine when oil hit 100$ a barrel and would have to settle for a Crimena a land bridge.

The invasion happened at 95$ a barrel.


----------



## Ryujin

NotAYakk said:


> There is a youtuber called Adam Somthing who almost a year ago prognosticated Russia would invade Ukraine when oil hit 100$ a barrel and would have to settle for a Crimena a land bridge.
> 
> The invasion happened at 95$ a barrel.



Thing about predictions is that no one remembers the gajillion that were wrong. Oil has been over $100/barrel before and will be again.


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> Nuclear fuel waste is so small of a problem that reactors keep it on site for decades.  Literally decades.




With respect, you are using technical correctness to gloss over real issues.


Spoiler: Long bit on nucleear sites and power generation that has nothing to do with the Ukraine



Yes, they store spent fuel on site.  For one thing, it is loaded with stuff that has half-lives of ten thousand years and more - a decade or two here or there doesn't touch the long-term problem.  Plus, while the site is in use, it is perfect for securing radioactive materials.  And, after it ceases producing power, it will take about 60 years to fully decommission the site.  You have a long time before that spent fuel has to find another home.

And, perfectly honestly, if we wanted to, we could recycle the fuel.  We don't for legal reasons that have nothing to do with power generation.  We could change the law, recycle fuel and the end product of that chain is much less problematic than what we have now.

What you're really glossing over in focusing on the fuel is the real problem of disposing of the _reactor building_.  It has been there, being bombarded with stray neutrons and alpha particles for decades as the generator operates - the building itself becomes radioactive, and has to be taken apart and disposed of.

While by some measures each pound of it isn't "very" radioactive, what you lose in intensity you make up for with there being thousands of tons of the stuff.  Modern nuclear reactors have something like 40 metric tons of steel and 190 cubic meters of concrete per megawatt of average capacity. And a typical reactor produces a gigawatt - a thousand megawatts.  So, there's a lot of material to deal with.  You can't just jackhammer it apart and pile it up without contaminating the countryside with radioactive dust - so, there's decades of decontamination and cleanup.

And... dump nuclear waste in the ocean?  Because, what, the ocean is infinite and our power needs are and will forever remain minimal, so the ocean will never notice?  We used to think that about the atmosphere, too.  See how well that turned out?




NotAYakk said:


> Of course, solar/wind is (or is becoming) cheaper per Joule.  It just can't provide power when people want to use it.




Oh, come on.  There's loads of ways to store that power for when people want to use it, with very little loss of efficiency.  For example - use the extra power generated in low demand times to pump water uphill into a reservoir.  Use the reservoir to drive hydroelectric turbines when you need power later.  Use gravity as your battery.

The thing that our reliance on fossil fuels has taught us is that we cannot rely on _single sources_ of power.  You can't just use nuclear power.  You can't just use wind.  Or just use solar.  If you go all-in on only one source of power, the issues and impacts of that source become unmanageable.  When you break up power generation over as many different sources as possible, the impact of each is minimized.



I don't intend to enter into discussion about all that in this thread, because it is honestly far enough off topic that I almost passed on commenting at all.  But it was hard to just ignore the oversimplifications.


----------



## palikhov

Umbran said:


> I question this. The war in Ukraine is all of a month old.  Those nations are (if they are smart) thinking on the orders of years and decades.  They are interested in maintaining good relations with Russia long term.  A couple of months here or there isn't the issue.



It is very simple. if Russia will left alive. Then she again will attack Ukraine.
And this time - not making mistake.


----------



## palikhov

Umbran said:


> I am not sure that helps matters, in that you still need fuel for those reactors.  Not a single country in the EU is in the top 10 list of known Uranium reserves, so with nuclear power, they still have a fuel import problem.
> 
> True, Australia and Canada are on that list, so they have options for better energy trading partners, but still - broadly speaking, moving to nuclear may change the players the the geopolitics of energy, but doesn't remove the issue.



Ukraine has Yellow waters (Жовті води).
I not know what is now. but 30 years ago there are lot miners


----------



## palikhov

Imaculata said:


> Just had a meeting with one of my Ukrainian colleagues in Odessa. Apparently they've destroyed another Russian warship. He says a lot of the Russians soldiers being sent to fight are just young boys who barely know how to drive a vehicle or fire a weapon, let alone hit a target. He seems optimistic about Ukraine's war efforts, with several areas of Kiev being back in Ukrainian hands. But even he realises this won't end any time soon. I cautioned him that this will get worse before it gets better. Chemical weapons might be next I fear.



"Kyiv"


----------



## palikhov

Umbran said:


> Again, to what end?  "United against the bully" doesn't really mean anything unless it changes the bully's actions.
> 
> Meanwhile, those abstaining at this point are generally doing so because Russia gives them something that they want/need, that they stand to lose if they cheese Russia off.  You want them to make symbolic gestures that won't change the situation, except for their being left in the lurch for something they need?
> 
> I'm all for making some sacrifices for a cause, but only if those sacrifices are apt to be effective.
> 
> 
> 
> The UN is not going to engage in direct violent action against Russian forces, because expanding the conflict is a good way to get WWIII, a thing the UN was nominally created to prevent.




not fear)


----------



## Smackpixi

NotAYakk said:


> Nuclear fuel waste is so small of a problem that reactors keep it on site for decades. Literally decades.



They keep it on site because there is literally nothing else they can do with it.  Don’t know about other countries, but in the US they have to keep it on site because there are no other options, no place to send it and no permitted way to send it.  Reactors are near rivers and other water sources because they need large amounts of water to run the facility.  And next to water is a terrible place to store nuclear waste.  I’m pro-nuclear in the abstract, the waste issue is solvable, but in the real world it’s turning out to be insolvable not because of technical reasons, but because of social and political reasons.  Most people may be wrong, but until most people accept reasonable solutions, nuclear sucks and is going nowhere.


----------



## Eltab

A few months of blackouts and brownouts, and even the most determined environmentalist can start thinking that nuclear power might be one of those 'bridge technologies' ... and offer permit / construction oversight methods that do not involve "get a Court involved" -scale delays.


----------



## Imaculata

We're in talks of maybe trying to evacuate our Ukrainian colleague to the Netherlands. Stay tuned and fingers crossed.


----------



## Zardnaar

Eltab said:


> A few months of blackouts and brownouts, and even the most determined environmentalist can start thinking that nuclear power might be one of those 'bridge technologies' ... and offer permit / construction oversight methods that do not involve "get a Court involved" -scale delays.




 Still won't be online anytime soon though. 

 WW2 would finish faster than building it.


----------



## Horwath

Umbran said:


> I am not sure that helps matters, in that you still need fuel for those reactors.  Not a single country in the EU is in the top 10 list of known Uranium reserves, so with nuclear power, they still have a fuel import problem.
> 
> True, Australia and Canada are on that list, so they have options for better energy trading partners, but still - broadly speaking, moving to nuclear may change the players the the geopolitics of energy, but doesn't remove the issue.



that is true.

But we could say that Canada and Australia are far safer options than Russia, Venezuela or Saudis.

also, you can stock up uranium reserves for 30 years in reasonable amount of space. Imagine if you have to storage oil and/or gas for 30 years of consumption.


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> Still doesn't change the cost or time requirements and consent process.
> 
> If they started tomorrow threw enough money at it the first new reactor might be online by 2032 at the earliest. Realistically more like 2042.
> 
> And even if they did that the reactor would still cost more than every other option.
> 
> There's a good chance Putin dies of old age before any reactor comes online.



today average time for building nuclear power plant is around 83 months with record being 39 month for a reactor in Japan.

When did this Ukraine #$"% started? Ah, yes... in 2014. So with average of 7 years, we could have had first new reactors in EU last year.


----------



## Zardnaar

Horwath said:


> today average time for building nuclear power plant is around 83 months with record being 39 month for a reactor in Japan.
> 
> When did this Ukraine #$"% started? Ah, yes... in 2014. So with average of 7 years, we could have had first new reactors in EU last year.




 Yeah but it's mostly Germany reliant on gas and other countries don't have the resources or knowledge to build one. 

 It's not the actual construction it's locating a site and consents. Even of you fast tracked consents finding a site is difficult. 

 Not sure how the law works but I'm sure local nimbyism will tie up the site and construction for years. 

 8vyears ago Russia got a free pass no one cared enough to do much.

 The west essentially enabled Russia but zee Germans and every US administration since 1993.

 And even if you oked the construction of a nuclear plant it's not that economic to do so vs say cheap Russian gas. Oops. 

 One way or another this crisis will be over before they even confirm a site. Either Russia caves, Ukraine caves or big red button gets pressed.

 The countries that can build a reactor won't for economic and political reasons the others can't afford run or can't build one.

 Personally I was kinda shocked how reliant Europe is on gas. Didn't know my country was so high on renewables. Gaslines and gasworks closed decades ago. Hipsters, some commercial kitchens and BBQ's use it.


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> Yeah but it's mostly Germany reliant on gas and other countries don't have the resources or knowledge to build one.
> 
> It's not the actual construction it's locating a site and consents. Even of you fast tracked consents finding a site is difficult.
> 
> Not sure how the law works but I'm sure local nimbyism will tie up the site and construction for years.
> 
> 8vyears ago Russia got a free pass no one cared enough to do much.
> 
> The west essentially enabled Russia but zee Germans and every US administration since 1993.
> 
> And even if you oked the construction of a nuclear plant it's not that economic to do so vs say cheap Russian gas. Oops.
> 
> One way or another this crisis will be over before they even confirm a site. Either Russia caves, Ukraine caves or big red button gets pressed.
> 
> The countries that can build a reactor won't for economic and political reasons the others can't afford run or can't build one.
> 
> Personally I was kinda shocked how reliant Europe is on gas. Didn't know my country was so high on renewables. Gaslines and gasworks closed decades ago. Hipsters, some commercial kitchens and BBQ's use it.



however this ends, it's in EUs best interest not to buy a single ccm or russian gas/oil in nearest possible future.

it's just sad that tens of thousands will die and cities will be destroyed so someone can keep oil/gas monopoly for EU

Just hope that whatever small humanitarian aid we gather here can ease some suffering :/


----------



## Zardnaar

Horwath said:


> however this ends, it's in EUs best interest not to buy a single ccm or russian gas/oil in nearest possible future.
> 
> it's just sad that tens of thousands will die and cities will be destroyed so someone can keep oil/gas monopoly for EU
> 
> Just hope that whatever small humanitarian aid we gather here can ease some suffering :/




 I agree but powers that be/consumers went with cheap energy. 

 Alot of things I'm opposed to are because it's just a race to the bottom on price but it ignores the other costs that don't involve $$$$.

 And push comes to shove how many divisions does the UN have?


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> I agree but powers that be/consumers went with cheap energy.
> 
> Alot of things I'm opposed to are because it's just a race to the bottom on price but it ignores the other costs that don't involve $$$$.
> 
> And push comes to shove how many divisions does the UN have?



cheaper is relative here, while nuclear power plants are 5/6 times more expensive then gas power plants to build, over decades of operation, nuclear come out cheaper.

maybe in 10 or so years we will have new generation of batteries that will be able to store much more power with faster charge/discharge rate to be effective in "peak power" hours of the day.


----------



## Zardnaar

Horwath said:


> cheaper is relative here, while nuclear power plants are 5/6 times more expensive then gas power plants to build, over decades of operation, nuclear come out cheaper.
> 
> maybe in 10 or so years we will have new generation of batteries that will be able to store much more power with faster charge/discharge rate to be effective in "peak power" hours of the day.




 What does Croatia use?


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Update on high-profile efforts to feed the refugees:









						'Chopped' judge Marc Murphy on cooking for Ukrainian refugees in Poland: 'Giving people a little bit of dignity and a warm bowl of food'
					

After watching the conflict between Russia and Ukraine unfold from home, "Chopped" judge Marc Murphy decided to join José Andrés in Poland to cook for World Central Kitchen. Now, he's sharing his efforts on social media to raise money to feed Ukrainian refugees.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## GreyLord

I'm not a big fan of Nuclear.  I'd rather go solar.  Solar has ways to store the energy (practically all solar based systems store the energy for later usage at night) and can be easily (though not cheaply) installed anywhere there is a roof, or land if one wants to use the land (roofs are easier though, many walmarts have transferred to using solar if you look at their roofs in recent years).  

You still have the battery problem with wastes with solar (but you also have that problem with electric vehicles that are becoming all the rage these days) which isn't really cleaner than gas and oil, just destroys the environment in a different way (not really global warming, but destroying the environment in a different manner).  

If Ukraine has shown us anything, Nuclear Energy is too easily used as a weapon if one is at war.  We've already had the threat (and the threat isn't over) of Russia blowing up a nuclear plant and sending radioactive clouds everywhere.

That becomes a much easier and viable option the more nuclear plants there are.


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> What does Croatia use?



we have around 17% nuclear power in total, and NOW many people are hoping for more. A poll 10 years ago was 42% for new nuclear power plants, 44% against.

about 30% in hydro, rest is fossil fuel :/, minor from wind and solar


----------



## Horwath

GreyLord said:


> I'm not a big fan of Nuclear.  I'd rather go solar.  Solar has ways to store the energy (practically all solar based systems store the energy for later usage at night) and can be easily (though not cheaply) installed anywhere there is a roof, or land if one wants to use the land (roofs are easier though, many walmarts have transferred to using solar if you look at their roofs in recent years).
> 
> You still have the battery problem with wastes with solar (but you also have that problem with electric vehicles that are becoming all the rage these days) which isn't really cleaner than gas and oil, just destroys the environment in a different way (not really global warming, but destroying the environment in a different manner).
> 
> If Ukraine has shown us anything, Nuclear Energy is too easily used as a weapon if one is at war.  We've already had the threat (and the threat isn't over) of Russia blowing up a nuclear plant and sending radioactive clouds everywhere.
> 
> That becomes a much easier and viable option the more nuclear plants there are.



solar is great for houses and if your area is mostly non usable wasteland. If it's not farmlands or forest or parks, sure, make a solar plant.

If you have, like in most cities, lots of residential high rises, there is simply not enough building area to have power production for people that live on that area. But every bit helps so solar should go on every building if possible. 

pump hydro is ideal for energy storage, but that also requires unique terrain features, and also there is environmental issues with flooding for artificial lakes, and also displacement of people from the area.


----------



## Morrus

Horwath said:


> solar is great for houses and if your area is mostly non usable wasteland. If it's not farmlands or forest or parks, sure, make a solar plant.
> 
> If you have, like in most cities, lots of residential high rises, there is simply not enough building area to have power production for people that live on that area. But every bit helps so solar should go on every building if possible.
> 
> pump hydro is ideal for energy storage, but that also requires unique terrain features, and also there is environmental issues with flooding for artificial lakes, and also displacement of people from the area.



Also, of course, constant bright sunlight isn't abundant everywhere. It's great if you live in California, not so much in Scotland!


----------



## Horwath

Morrus said:


> Also, of course, constant bright sunlight isn't abundant everywhere. It's great if you live in California, not so much in Scotland!



that is another downfall of solar unfortunately.


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> that is true.
> 
> But we could say that Canada and Australia are far safer options than Russia, Venezuela or Saudis.




Yes.  I already did say.



Horwath said:


> also, you can stock up uranium reserves for 30 years in reasonable amount of space. Imagine if you have to storage oil and/or gas for 30 years of consumption.




If you want the radiation hazard and security risk of having a large stockpile of fissionable material, sure, you could, if someone produced fast enough for you to do so.

But, we should also note:  Known world Uranium reserves, as of a few years ago, was about 7.5 million tons.  But, by that time, the world had already produced/used about 2.8 million tons.  Now, a lot of that prior use was for weapons, but if _everyone_ starts chewing the stuff for power, you'll run into supply problems fairly quickly.  Uranium is not a renewable resource, and so probably shouldn't be a mainstay of power generation.



Horwath said:


> today average time for building nuclear power plant is around 83 months with record being 39 month for a reactor in Japan.
> 
> When did this Ukraine #$"% started? Ah, yes... in 2014. So with average of 7 years, we could have had first new reactors in EU last year.




That's just the construction time.  Add in the planning and licensing, and the time is more like a decade.

Now, overall, this time can be reduced - at the moment every single reactor in the US is a one-off, individual design.  If you standardize plant design (and thus you standardize parts manufacture, planning, and the like) you can get that time down.  You also get the benefit that a plant worker trained in a plant in Arizna would be able to move to work in a plant in Michigan without a lot of retraining, which makes staffing a touch easier.



Horwath said:


> pump hydro is ideal for energy storage, but that also requires unique terrain features, and also there is environmental issues with flooding for artificial lakes, and also displacement of people from the area.




So, let us be abundantly clear - At scale, _every single method to generate power has side effects we don't want._ So, poiting out, "well this has drawback X" is not really an argument against it.

No method of generation is perfect - fossil fuels release CO2. Nuclear has radioactive and heat waste.  Solar needs sun, has the rare earths you use in the panels, and having to deal with the panels when they are past lifetime.  Wind needs wind, and has bird deaths and ocean ecology issues when built offshore.  There is no energy source we can turn to that won't have problems.

The smart thing to do is to stop saying, "No," and start thinking "where, how, and how much."

At this point, I'd have to sway - if folks want to talk energy, let us have a separate thread.  This should be about Ukraine.


----------



## Horwath

Imaculata said:


> We're in talks of maybe trying to evacuate our Ukrainian colleague to the Netherlands. Stay tuned and fingers crossed.



good news from today, is that russians might give up on Odessa in total


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> good news from today, is that russians might give up on Odessa in total




And possibly Kyiv as well.  They may be rolling back to, "all we really wanted was in the Donbas region, and to make clear that we won't have you joining NATO."


----------



## Ryujin

Horwath said:


> good news from today, is that russians might give up on Odessa in total



There seems to be a fair bit of, "I meant to do that!" coming out of Russia, these days, now that they're being largely stymied from getting the completely overwhelming win that they expected in mere days.


----------



## Horwath

Umbran said:


> And possibly Kyiv as well.  They may be rolling back to, "all we really wanted was in the Donbas region, and to make clear that we won't have you joining NATO."



loosely translated, we are getting our #### handed to us outside Donbas so we will regroup there.
This does not mean that Ukrainians aren't suffering heavy losses also.


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> loosely translated, we are getting our #### handed to us outside Donbas so we will regroup there.




I think it'll turn out to be more than just regroup.  I think they realize that taking the whole country at this time simply isn't going to work.  They're likely rolling back to something they might be able to hold onto strongly enough to get in negotiations.



Horwath said:


> This does not mean that Ukrainians aren't suffering heavy losses also.




Oh, of course not.  Beating off the Russians has a heavy, heavy toll.


----------



## Zardnaar

I said on a different site they may be able to beat some dirt out of Ukraine and force them to sign something. The international community doesn't have to accept that treaty or whatever and they can keep sanctions on. 

 Even if Russia pulled back to to borders from 6 weeks or so ago sanctions are going be worse now than then. If they take any dirt I imagine sanctions will remain. I suspect to get them removed they'll have to pull back to pre 2014 borders. 

 Apparently they can't replace any tanks lost as they used western components. They could produce them to 1980's standards I suppose then they're essentially deaf, dumb and blind.


----------



## Nikosandros

Yes, sanctions against Russia must remain. It's good if an agreement can be reached, because Ukraine is being subject to destruction and massacre. But whatever concessions Kyiv will make, they will have been extorted by thugs.


----------



## Zardnaar

Nikosandros said:


> Yes, sanctions against Russia must remain. It's good if an agreement can be reached, because Ukraine is being subject to destruction and massacre. But whatever concessions Kyiv will make, they will have been extorted by thugs.




 Well pre war Crimes essentially had the same sanctions that Russia has now. 

  I suspect if they want sanctions removed going back to 2013 borders and paying reparations would be the way to do it.


----------



## Umbran

Nikosandros said:


> Yes, sanctions against Russia must remain.




I expect that sanctions will lift when a peace agreement is reached.  I don't expect that to be a full withdrawal and a return of Crimea - that would constitute an unacceptable loss of face for Russia.  I will be unsurprised if Russia gets out of this still holding Crimea, a chunk of the Donbas region, and with an agreement that Ukraine will not seek to become part of NATO or the EU.

Which stinks, but that's my expectation at this point.


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> I expect that sanctions will lift when a peace agreement is reached.  I don't expect that to be a full withdrawal and a return of Crimea - that would constitute an unacceptable loss of face for Russia.  I will be unsurprised if Russia gets out of this still holding Crimea, a chunk of the Donbas region, and with an agreement that Ukraine will not seek to become part of NATO or the EU.



I suspect that's about right - and I fully expect that Putin and his media sock puppets will spin it as a successful campaign to force Ukraine to give up ambitions of joining NATO and the EU and a successful show of force to keep NATO from direct interference in Russian security concerns. 
The next question will be about pressure on states like Latvia and Estonia - both of which are in NATO and which border core Russian territory. Then Poland and Lithuania, both of which border the Russian enclave that used to be East Prussia and are in NATO. And finally Russian threats against Bosnia and Herzegovina and their potential NATO relationship through their Serbian cronies, who are already causing problems.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> I expect that sanctions will lift when a peace agreement is reached.  I don't expect that to be a full withdrawal and a return of Crimea - that would constitute an unacceptable loss of face for Russia.  I will be unsurprised if Russia gets out of this still holding Crimea, a chunk of the Donbas region, and with an agreement that Ukraine will not seek to become part of NATO or the EU.
> 
> Which stinks, but that's my expectation at this point.




 I pretty much expect that but with sanctions intact.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> The next question will be about pressure on states like Latvia and Estonia - both of which are in NATO and which border core Russian territory. Then Poland and Lithuania, both of which border the Russian enclave that used to be East Prussia and are in NATO.




After getting spanked by Ukraine, I don't expect Russia will have the hunger to take on a NATO member for some years.


----------



## South by Southwest

Umbran said:


> After getting spanked by Ukraine, I don't expect Russia will have the hunger to take on a NATO member for some years.



Oh, man!--let's not even joke about that.


----------



## billd91

Umbran said:


> After getting spanked by Ukraine, I don't expect Russia will have the hunger to take on a NATO member for some years.



Spanked, maybe. But they didn’t provoke direct intervention because of the nuclear threat. And may end up with largely what they wanted anyway. 
My guess is the next actual test will be in Bosnia and Herzegovina with Serbian proxies while Russian colonists will start agitating in the Baltics, all funded with Russian oil money.


----------



## Umbran

billd91 said:


> Spanked, maybe. But they didn’t provoke direct intervention because of the nuclear threat. And may end up with largely what they wanted anyway.




Yes, but they seem to have lost more troops in a month than the total the US has lost since the end of the Vietnam War.  Those losses are a problem, and indicate many other problems.



billd91 said:


> My guess is the next actual test will be in Bosnia and Herzegovina with Serbian proxies while Russian colonists will start agitating in the Baltics, all funded with Russian oil money.




Years from now, perhaps. But this test has shown they don't have the equipment, training, or logistics for taking on peers.  It will take time to develop it.


----------



## UngainlyTitan

Umbran said:


> Years from now, perhaps. But this test has shown they don't have the equipment, training, or logistics for taking on peers.  It will take time to develop it.



I kind of suspect that the equipment they had was fine where it was maintained but that most of what was paid for never arrived at front line units or was stripped and sold off after installation. 
It is the pervasive and top to bottom corruption that is the root problem and the best hope to counteract it is a fairly transparent society. Which is not compatible with oligarchical rule.


----------



## NotAYakk

UngainlyTitan said:


> I kind of suspect that the equipment they had was fine where it was maintained but that most of what was paid for never arrived at front line units or was stripped and sold off after installation.
> It is the pervasive and top to bottom corruption that is the root problem and the best hope to counteract it is a fairly transparent society. Which is not compatible with oligarchical rule.



It is more than that.

Russia's military is poorly trained/educated.  Their economy is barely bigger than Canada's, and they are maintaining a huge number of tanks and other weapons; they simply cannot afford to modernize them, keep that many in service, and maintain them.

It relies on conscription, which you can avoid by getting a degree; this means it relies on the poorest who cannot avoid service.

It has weak off-rail logistics.  Their units have something like 1/3 of the off-rail (trucks basically) logistics capabilities of "western" military units.

And then, we have the plausible story that the Tank is dead as a weapon.  Modern anti-tank weaponry (both drones and man-portable) are able to kill tanks easier than tanks can kill them for 10x to 100x less cost.  That really isn't a price ratio you want to be fighting against.

I mean, battleships died in WW2 with the aircraft carrier for the same reason (air planes are many many times cheaper than battleships, and can sink them).  We still have ships with guns, but they aren't the battleships of WW2 and before, queens of the sea which engaged in a technological arms race for larger caliber barrels and thicker armor and faster engines.  Instead they are secondary escort craft.

It looks like tanks are now ineffectively armored most-terrain light artillery and poor infantry transport mechanized units.

Not sure what to replace it with.  Maybe massively reduce armor (keep enough to beat small arms; force the enemy to have anti-person and anti-mech weapons), add in drone escorts?  (Refueling and controlling drones can give you around-corner kill capabilities)  Stick anti-tank weaponry on some of the drones and you can beat a tank before it sees you.

Dunno.


----------



## UngainlyTitan

NotAYakk said:


> It is more than that.
> 
> Russia's military is poorly trained/educated.  Their economy is barely bigger than Canada's, and they are maintaining a huge number of tanks and other weapons; they simply cannot afford to modernize them, keep that many in service, and maintain them.



They cannot afford not to either but we would have to get into the weeds of what exactly Russia has been spending on military over the last 20 years but but I do not see how the situation would not be improved by less corruption.


NotAYakk said:


> It relies on conscription, which you can avoid by getting a degree; this means it relies on the poorest who cannot avoid service.
> 
> It has weak off-rail logistics.  Their units have something like 1/3 of the off-rail (trucks basically) logistics capabilities of "western" military units.
> 
> And then, we have the plausible story that the Tank is dead as a weapon.  Modern anti-tank weaponry (both drones and man-portable) are able to kill tanks easier than tanks can kill them for 10x to 100x less cost.  That really isn't a price ratio you want to be fighting against.



This is something about which we simply do not have enough information. We do not really know, if the Russians, at any point performed any of the force protection measures, typically undertaken by the US in similar circumstances or if the tank losses was cause by poor training, lack of combined arms coordination or lack of maintenance. It will be a couple of years before we will have the information to make a real judgements on this.


NotAYakk said:


> I mean, battleships died in WW2 with the aircraft carrier for the same reason (air planes are many many times cheaper than battleships, and can sink them).  We still have ships with guns, but they aren't the battleships of WW2 and before, queens of the sea which engaged in a technological arms race for larger caliber barrels and thicker armor and faster engines.  Instead they are secondary escort craft.
> 
> It looks like tanks are now ineffectively armored most-terrain light artillery and poor infantry transport mechanized units.
> 
> Not sure what to replace it with.  Maybe massively reduce armor (keep enough to beat small arms; force the enemy to have anti-person and anti-mech weapons), add in drone escorts?  (Refueling and controlling drones can give you around-corner kill capabilities)  Stick anti-tank weaponry on some of the drones and you can beat a tank before it sees you.
> 
> Dunno.



Too early to make judgements. Too much of the information is coming from Ukraine sources, we are not getting the Russian side and Ukraine is playing a blinder on the information war.


----------



## Nikosandros

Umbran said:


> I expect that sanctions will lift when a peace agreement is reached.  I don't expect that to be a full withdrawal and a return of Crimea - that would constitute an unacceptable loss of face for Russia.  I will be unsurprised if Russia gets out of this still holding Crimea, a chunk of the Donbas region, and with an agreement that Ukraine will not seek to become part of NATO or the EU.
> 
> Which stinks, but that's my expectation at this point.



We'll see. Germany might be wavering, but I reckon that the US and the UK see things differently. Putin has crossed a red line and I don't envisage things going back to "normal" any time soon. IMHO, of course.


----------



## Umbran

While not yet solidly established, we now have reasons to doubt that Russia is implementing a coherent strategy, or acting on the basis of reality, because Putin may not be informed of the reality:

_"A U.S. official provided NBC News with declassified intelligence claiming that there is "persistent tension" between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD), allegedly because Putin's senior advisors are "too afraid to tell him the truth" about Russia's battlefield failures. 

“We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisors about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions because his senior advisors are too afraid to tell him the truth," the official said. 

The official did not provide evidence for these claims, citing a need to protect sources and methods. 

They said that Putin was unaware that the Russian military had used and lost conscript soldiers in Ukraine, saying that this lack of information showed "a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian President.""_

(From NBC News:  Russia-Ukraine war live updates: Russian units 'forced' to turn back to reorganize)


----------



## Imaculata

Actual footage of Putin being informed by his advisors:


----------



## South by Southwest

Umbran said:


> While not yet solidly established, we now have reasons to doubt that Russia is implementing a coherent strategy, or acting on the basis of reality, because Putin may not be informed of the reality:
> 
> _"A U.S. official provided NBC News with declassified intelligence claiming that there is "persistent tension" between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD), allegedly because Putin's senior advisors are "too afraid to tell him the truth" about Russia's battlefield failures.
> 
> “We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisors about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions because his senior advisors are too afraid to tell him the truth," the official said. _
> 
> [...]



Okay, wow. I mean, ^^ this is almost exactly how the U.S.'s second invasion of Iraq started. We had bad intel and believed it because Saddam had bad intel and believed it.

Wow.


----------



## Zardnaar

Reasons for Russian underperformance. 

  Basically their military is to big for the budget. Their artillery and missiles work fine and they have a large amount of nukes. 

 But they announce all these Miracle weapons (T-14 Armata, SU-57) and barely build any. 

 Consider on paper they have 12000 tanks. Most of these however are USSR leftovers around 2500-2800 in service.  Something like 800 odd are "modernized". 

 The modern tanks are upgraded T-72 and T-90's and T-80. All off them suffer from small tank big gun which means weak armor and that autoloader. 

 All those pictures we're seeing of T-72's with the turrets blown off? That's an ammunition detonation. Pretty much all Soviet/Russian tanks since the T-34 have terrible crew conditions and safety. 

 So even without corruption how does a country with an economy similar in size to Texas, Canada, Australia and Italy maintain an army that size? 

 Well the proof is in the pudding. Poorly trained and equipped it seems. 
 The majority if their tanks are T-72B barely upgraded maybe with ERA strapped on. That design is Soviet dating from 1985 with 1985 electronics. The upgraded T-72's have things like computers in them. 

 T-90 isn't very good and they're using a few A models from the 90's. It's just a glorified T-72 with a T-80 turret. 

 So Ukraine has probably taken out a large % of their upgraded models. As an added bonus they can't replace or upgrade replacements. Apparently the tank factory has closed down due to a lack of parts due to sanctions.

 Most if those 12000 tanks on paper are in storage and haven't been maintained in decades mostly T-72A models and older (T-55's maybe T-64). 

 I don't think Russia has T64 in active service Ukraine does. T-64 was the best Soviet tank 50 years ago. T-72 was cheap replacement for T-55 and T-80 was a cheaper T-64.


----------



## Horwath

billd91 said:


> Spanked, maybe. But they didn’t provoke direct intervention because of the nuclear threat. And may end up with largely what they wanted anyway.
> My guess is the next actual test will be in Bosnia and Herzegovina with Serbian proxies while Russian colonists will start agitating in the Baltics, all funded with Russian oil money.



that is why it's best to hold Russia under total sanctions for next 20 or so years or until the give up any claim on Ukraine whatsoever.


----------



## Zardnaar

Horwath said:


> that is why it's best to hold Russia under total sanctions for next 20 or so years or until the give up any claim on Ukraine whatsoever.




 Basically my opinion. And if Ukraine is forced to sign over land confiscate the frozen reserves and hand them over to Ukraine.


----------



## Hussar

I never actually realized just how small the Russian economy is.  That's mind blowing.  We're talking a country with a smaller GDP than Canada.  Good grief, Canada barely has an armed forces any more.  Tiny military.  

Then again, let's not forget that in 1991, the third largest armed forces in the world was Iraq.  And it lasted, what, three months against the Americans?  

I guess when you spend more than the entire world combined on your military for decades, you kinda pull ahead of everyone else.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> I never actually realized just how small the Russian economy is.  That's mind blowing.  We're talking a country with a smaller GDP than Canada.  Good grief, Canada barely has an armed forces any more.  Tiny military.
> 
> Then again, let's not forget that in 1991, the third largest armed forces in the world was Iraq.  And it lasted, what, three months against the Americans?
> 
> I guess when you spend more than the entire world combined on your military for decades, you kinda pull ahead of everyone else.




Yeah they have a large army the same way North Korea has nukes.


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Basically my opinion. And if Ukraine is forced to sign over land confiscate the frozen reserves and hand them over to Ukraine.




Maybe.  But I don't expect that'll happen. Gettign the world to act together while the war and active shootign is going on is one thing.  Getting them to make a long-term policy out of it is another.



Hussar said:


> I guess when you spend more than the entire world combined on your military for decades, you kinda pull ahead of everyone else.




The US military, having been extended out into the world so much, also _knows logistics_.  That's not a thing that comes just from having money.  You need to do a lot of work in the field to get logistics and supply to function properly.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> Maybe.  But I don't expect that'll happen. Gettign the world to act together while the war and active shootign is going on is one thing.  Getting them to make a long-term policy out of it is another.
> 
> The US military, having been extended out into the world so much, also _knows logistics_.  That's not a thing that comes just from having money.  You need to do a lot of work in the field to get logistics and supply to function properly.




 It's mostly money though. Costs heaps for those airlifters, fuel tankers for the Abrams and various trucks. Not to mention aircraft carriers. 

 That's the difference between a 750+ billion military budget and everyone else. Hell it's probably over a trillion with indirect costs (veterens benefits, corporate shenanigans etc). 

 Soviet Union at its height couldn't project power like the USA.

 Even with PPP Russia's 60 billion is effectively 180 billion or so.


----------



## Hussar

Umbran said:


> Maybe. But I don't expect that'll happen. Gettign the world to act together while the war and active shootign is going on is one thing. Getting them to make a long-term policy out of it is another.
> 
> 
> 
> The US military, having been extended out into the world so much, also _knows logistics_. That's not a thing that comes just from having money. You need to do a lot of work in the field to get logistics and supply to function properly.




Oh sure. Sorry I wasn’t making light. I am actually pretty impressed with the US military. 

For all the poop that people fling at the US for its foreign policies, IMO, the US has always been remarkably restrained in its use of force. 

Put it in perspective. Both the US and Russia spent similar amounts of time in Afghanistan. About twenty years. The Russians killed about 1.5 million Afghans in that time. The Americans about 15000. 

Imagine what the US could actually do if it chose to and it’s quite terrifying.


----------



## trappedslider

Hussar said:


> Imagine what the US could actually do if it chose to and it’s quite terrifying.



That's what fiction writers are for!


----------



## Zardnaar

Irpin Before


 After

 Top video features Bald and Bankrupt visiting his friend in Kyiv.


----------



## Morrus

Hussar said:


> Then again, let's not forget that in 1991, the third largest armed forces in the world was Iraq.  And it lasted, what, three months against the Americans?



Well, it's not just about numbers.


----------



## Hussar

Morrus said:


> Well, it's not just about numbers.




No. Fair enough.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Morrus said:


> Well, it's not just about numbers.



True.  

According to sources I’ve looked at, Russia has the world’s largest tank force.  By _a lot._  But of those, only 100 or so would be of their best unit.  And those are probably limited to defense roles inside Russia- not for deployment on front lines outside the country.

In contrast, the USA has _thousands _of its best tanks deployed domestically and internationally.

IOW, they opted for quantity over quality...and that ignores all their other issues.


----------



## Dannyalcatraz

Heifer International stands with Ukraine.  








						Today, We Stand With the People of Ukraine
					

As we witness millions of lives being upended by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, our hearts remain with the people of the country — and our roots remain in the region.




					www.heifer.org
				




They can’t do much NOW, but I bet the post-war effort, they’ll be able to help the recovery.


----------



## Zardnaar

Dannyalcatraz said:


> True.
> 
> According to sources I’ve looked at, Russia has the world’s largest tank force.  By _a lot._  But of those, only 100 or so would be of their best unit.  And those are probably limited to defense roles inside Russia- not for deployment on front lines outside the country.
> 
> In contrast, the USA has _thousands _of its best tanks deployed domestically and internationally.
> 
> IOW, they opted for quantity over quality...and that ignores all their other issues.




 It's even less than 100 more like 20-25 of the T-14 Armata. And it's untested and hyped up. Armataa main advantage (assuming it's electronic countermeasures work as advertised) is no autoloader so T-72 turret throwing Olympics problem is solved and it's got a larger breach so it can fit a longer higher penetration 125mm shell in it. The other Soviet types can't really be upgraded any more due to size issues. Eg they can't but longer breach in the turret or fit blow out panels without cutting holes in the tank. 

  SU-57 the other hyped up uberweapon around a dozen exist. 

 So they are basically glorified prototypes used in military parades.
And I have severe doubts they're even that Uber. AFAICT they hype them up for domestic propaganda and foreign orders will pay for their own domestic problems.

 They Ukrainian's have knocked out T-72A and B models. They Russian s turned over junk tanks to the forces of the DPR/LPR. Those models are left over unupgraded 70's and 80's models.


----------



## Eltab

Hussar said:


> Oh sure. Sorry I wasn’t making light. I am actually pretty impressed with the US military.
> 
> For all the poop that people fling at the US for its foreign policies, IMO, the US has always been remarkably restrained in its use of force.
> 
> Put it in perspective. Both the US and Russia spent similar amounts of time in Afghanistan. About twenty years. The Russians killed about 1.5 million Afghans in that time. The Americans about 15000.
> 
> Imagine what the US could actually do if it chose to and it’s quite terrifying.



The US Armed Forces learned the hard way that "racking up the body count" does not equal "winning the war".  My favorite post-Vietnam analysis quote:
"Attrition is not a strategy.  In fact, attrition is irrefutable proof of the absence of a strategy."


----------



## Mirtek

About Russian corruption and it's armed forces

The gist is



> That’s what’s clearly happening here: the Rothenbergs and other arms manufacturers pilfer; the steel-, iron-, and component-manufacturers pilfer; the plant managers pilfer; the employees pilfer; the unit commanders pilfer; the supply officers pilfer; the soldiers pilfer. It’s a wonderful grift. Everyone benefits! Well, except when war is called. Suddenly, all that equipment that was supposedly in the field turns out to have been an illusion, long sold off for Italian villas and bottles of vodka


----------



## Zardnaar

WW2 era weapons being used. Hell Maxim is pre WW1.


----------



## Hussar

Vietnam is a weird beast. The US decisively won every single battle and still lost the war. 

And, even in Vietnam, losses were extremely one sided.


----------



## John R Davis

South by Southwest said:


> Okay, wow. I mean, ^^ this is almost exactly how the U.S.'s second invasion of Iraq started. We had bad intel and believed it because Saddam had bad intel and believed it.
> 
> Wow.



Yeah.
Saddam in his megalomania believed he had UMDs.


----------



## John R Davis

No matter how modem the war to hold a place you need to plant your flags and have people and vehicles on the ground.
Whether you are Taliban-like or Russian-like forces it creates many vulnerable targets.


----------



## Eltab

Hussar said:


> Vietnam is a weird beast. The US decisively won every single battle and still lost the war.
> 
> And, even in Vietnam, losses were extremely one sided.



President Johnson trapped himself inside a box of Can'ts that crippled his policy and strategy options.  Any proposal that would break the ongoing stalemate got the reaction "We can't do that". 

Subsequent Presidents have learned from LBJ's experience and mistakes.


----------



## Ryujin

Eltab said:


> The US Armed Forces learned the hard way that "racking up the body count" does not equal "winning the war".  My favorite post-Vietnam analysis quote:
> "Attrition is not a strategy.  In fact, attrition is irrefutable proof of the absence of a strategy."



Whenever body count numbers are brought up I remember how, in Vietnam, they would assume a number of casualties because even though they didn't see many bodies, they just _had_ to have generated a certain number based on ammunition expenditure.


----------



## Sepulchrave II

Hussar said:


> Put it in perspective. Both the US and Russia spent similar amounts of time in Afghanistan. About twenty years. The Russians killed about 1.5 million Afghans in that time. The Americans about 15000.



Ehh...according to the Costs of War Project the US war killed 176,000 people in Afghanistan; 46,319 civilians, 69,095 military and police and at least 52,893 opposition fighters. According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, the conflict killed 212,191 people.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday said that nine million people are at risk of famine in the aftermath of the war and as a result of sanctions. So...no?


----------



## IvyDragons

When Zelensky goes to Turkey to negotiate a peace settlement with Putin.  Putin uses the super bowl ring he stole to deliver a fatal poison.


----------



## Ryujin

IvyDragons said:


> When Zelensky goes to Turkey to negotiate a peace settlement with Putin.  Putin uses the super bowl ring he stole to deliver a fatal poison.



I'll take, "What you get when you elect a Bond villain" for $400, Alex.


----------



## Rabulias

IvyDragons said:


> When Zelensky goes to Turkey to negotiate a peace settlement with Putin.  Putin uses the super bowl ring he stole to deliver a fatal poison.



If they meet face to face I don't think they will shake hands. And I think they will be set across a big table from each other. Putin may be just as afraid of Zelensky.


----------



## Umbran

*Mod Note:*
Folks,

Just a reminder that this thread does not exist for you to argue over Vietnam.  Keep it on topic, please and thanks.


----------



## Umbran

Rabulias said:


> If they meet face to face I don't think they will shake hands. And I think they will be set across a big table from each other. Putin may be just as afraid of Zelensky.




If you want to make sure Ukrainians continue to vigorously resist Russian occupation, the perfect way to do it would be killing Zelensky at peace talks.

Edit - noting for myself - it is spelled "Zelenskyy".


----------



## Zardnaar

I thought he was gonna pull a Constantine XI or Leonidas. 

 But they won around Kyiv.


----------



## Cadence

Sepulchrave II said:


> Ehh...according to the Costs of War Project the US war killed 176,000 people in Afghanistan; 46,319 civilians, 69,095 military and police and at least 52,893 opposition fighters.




The previous poster sounded like they were trying to separate out the direct US and direct USSR ones.  The Cost of War ones you cite for Afghanistan combine both the "Taliban side" and "US side".  They are separated from 2007-2014 for civilian deaths in figure 2 at https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar...es Afghanistan and Pakistan 2001-2014 FIN.pdf


----------



## NotAYakk

Zardnaar said:


> I thought he was gonna pull a Constantine XI or Leonidas.
> 
> But they won around Kyiv.



When you attempt to Martyr yourself for a cause and end up winning the fight.

"This is like a team headed to the superbowl plays a game against a high school football team, and it is half time, and they haven't scored yet."


----------



## Umbran

NotAYakk said:


> "This is like a team headed to the superbowl plays a game against a high school football team, and it is half time, and they haven't scored yet."




Yeah, but they've trashed the locker room, ripped up the field, broken up the stands and sent many of the people there to the hospital.

It is rather like the point of the exercise isn't to play football, but to terrorize the town council about what other damage they could do, if they wanted.


----------



## IvyDragons

I find it interesting that while China publicly calls for peace.  Privately in documentaries published to the local population they are praising Putin as a hero who is resisting the wests liberal values, and reacting to Nato expansion. Really is a battle of democracy vs authoritarianism.


----------



## J.Quondam

IvyDragons said:


> Really is a battle of democracy vs authoritarianism.



More distressing to me is that that battle is also being fought _inside_ many of those democracies.
Propaganda is a hell of a drug.


----------



## IvyDragons

J.Quondam said:


> More distressing to me is that that battle is also being fought _inside_ many of those democracies.
> Propaganda is a hell of a drug.



Its the only way people can hang on to power, the new wave of republicans, distinct from the old guard, know this so they are beating Putins drum but had to back off because they were outnumbered.  But they will try again, I fear Trump will not be the worst president, there is worse to come.


----------



## Morrus

IvyDragons said:


> Its the only way people can hang on to power, the new wave of republicans, distinct from the old guard, know this so they are beating Putins drum but had to back off because they were outnumbered.  But they will try again, I fear Trump will not be the worst president, there is worse to come.



This thread is about the Ukraine invasion, not American politics. Please stay on topic.


----------



## Imaculata

We've lost all contact with one of our Ukrainian colleagues. We're not sure if he's dead or alive.


----------



## Mannahnin

Eltab said:


> President Johnson trapped himself inside a box of Can'ts that crippled his policy and strategy options.  Any proposal that would break the ongoing stalemate got the reaction "We can't do that".
> 
> Subsequent Presidents have learned from LBJ's experience and mistakes.



Of course it didn't help that Nixon sabotaged peace talks in '68 to help himself win the Presidency.  Though we didn't get firm evidence of that treason until a few years ago.









						When a Candidate Conspired With a Foreign Power to Win An Election
					

It took decades to unravel Nixon’s sabotage of Vietnam peace talks. Now, the full story can be told.




					www.politico.com
				




*Edit:  Sorry for the digression!  I'll stay on topic!*


----------



## Gradine

I have read multiple reports that Russia's military is more a paper tiger than anything. I've read at least one account stating that Russian soldiers were sabotaging their own equipment. Ukraine has been tough but I think we might be giving their opposition a little too much credit


----------



## billd91

Gradine said:


> I have read multiple reports that Russia's military is more a paper tiger than anything. I've read at least one account stating that Russian soldiers were sabotaging their own equipment. Ukraine has been tough but I think we might be giving their opposition a little too much credit



Maybe - but there's also nothing like having parts of your country annexed by a bullying neighbor with whom you have a brutal history to motivate you to invest in your military and their training over the last 7 years. Had the Russians invaded broadly back in 2014 instead of focusing just on the Crimea and using proxies, I doubt their forces would have been any better than their forces now, and I doubt the Ukrainians would be able to put up as much of a fight. Had the Russians been facing Ukrainians this prepared in 2014, they might not have been able to annex the Crimean Peninsula.


----------



## Horwath

billd91 said:


> Maybe - but there's also nothing like having parts of your country annexed by a bullying neighbor with whom you have a brutal history to motivate you to invest in your military and their training over the last 7 years. Had the Russians invaded broadly back in 2014 instead of focusing just on the Crimea and using proxies, I doubt their forces would have been any better than their forces now, and I doubt the Ukrainians would be able to put up as much of a fight. Had the Russians been facing Ukrainians this prepared in 2014, they might not have been able to annex the Crimean Peninsula.



Also, Ukrainians took asymmetric warfare very seriously.

The now infamous 60+km long convoy towards Kyiv was dismantled mostly by a single 30 man platoon that was riding through forests on quads with night vision goggles and targeting vehicles from inside treelines.


----------



## Zardnaar

Horwath said:


> Also, Ukrainians took asymmetric warfare very seriously.
> 
> The now infamous 60+km long convoy towards Kyiv was dismantled mostly by a single 30 man platoon that was riding through forests on quads with night vision goggles and targeting vehicles from inside treelines.




 Posted that earlier. I think the Russians were importing a lot of the link mited stuff they did have from France. 

 I think the Chechen's have night vision equipment the average Russian Mook no so much.


----------



## Umbran

Gradine said:


> I have read multiple reports that Russia's military is more a paper tiger than anything.




I am pretty sure the civilians in, say, Bucha, would say there's nothing "paper" about the tiger.


----------



## Gradine

Umbran said:


> I am pretty sure the civilians in, say, Bucha, would say there's nothing "paper" about the tiger.



Sure. War is hell no matter who is participating in it. I was more responding to the assertion that the Russian army was a "pro NFL team" fighting against a "high school team", which isn't anywhere remotely close to accurate unless the NFL team in question is like... the '08 Lions.


----------



## NotAYakk

Gradine said:


> Sure. War is hell no matter who is participating in it. I was more responding to the assertion that the Russian army was a "pro NFL team" fighting against a "high school team", which isn't anywhere remotely close to accurate unless the NFL team in question is like... the '08 Lions.



The point is that Russia's military looked large.  People knew it had problems, but prior to Ukraine saying it wasn't a top10 world military would be ridiculed.

And Ukraine wasn't on the map.

It looks to me like a combination of Russia was overestimated, Ukraine underestimated, and Tanks being obsoleted by modern infantry weapons.

Now switchblades are being deployed.  On paper, they make Javelins and Bayraktar look obsolete.  (A cheaper than Javelin remote controlled drone with Javelin level firepower and long range/idle time, plus an even cheaper one for less-armored targets...)

If they perform up to their potential, youch.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Gradine said:


> Sure. War is hell no matter who is participating in it.



War is worse than Hell.  Cue the scene from M.A.S.H.

When this started, I felt my heart breaking.  Not just because I knew there would be devastation and destruction of the towns and villages.  Not because I knew there would be civilian casualties.  And not because I knew it would be revealed that the Russians and their mercenaries would end up brutalizing and committing war crimes upon civilians.  But also because I knew the suffering won't stop after the Russians leave.  Surviving Ukrainians will in turn brutalize those neighbors they thought were sympathizers of the Russians.  Doesn't matter if that person was forced at gunpoint to help the Russian army.  When you have a brutalized and devastated population, they will look at any reason to enact revenge and seek what they feel is justice, especially those who they _think _are traitors.

It doesn't stop there either.  Even after all of that stops, the nightmares will haunt these people for a generation.  Those are the reasons I have been so moved by all of this.  I saw it all firsthand in Bosnia, so I knew what was going to happen, even if our media is acting shocked and surprised.  It's what happens in every war.


NotAYakk said:


> The point is that Russia's military looked large.  People knew it had problems, but prior to Ukraine saying it wasn't a top10 world military would be ridiculed.
> 
> And Ukraine wasn't on the map.
> 
> It looks to me like a combination of Russia was overestimated, Ukraine underestimated, and Tanks being obsoleted by modern infantry weapons.
> 
> Now switchblades are being deployed.  On paper, they make Javelins and Bayraktar look obsolete.  (A cheaper than Javelin remote controlled drone with Javelin level firepower and long range/idle time, plus an even cheaper one for less-armored targets...)
> 
> If they perform up to their potential, youch.



It would be a huge mistake, IMO, to underestimate the Russian army fighting capability.  This disaster (militarily speaking) for them was because they thought it would be a cakewalk.  That led to a lack of logistical efforts in place to sustain a longer invasion.  And the average soldier had no idea what they were doing at first, causing morale issues and lack of organization.

Many of those issues have been addressed.  Russia pulled back and consolidated in other areas for a second attack.  This second attack will be more effective for them.  Putin brought in additional mercenaries who are more experienced than the original conscripts.  I'm not saying they will take over Ukraine, but I suspect there will be a second offensive, and it will be much worse for the Ukrainians than the first was.


----------



## Rabulias

Umbran said:


> I am pretty sure the civilians in, say, Bucha, would say there's nothing "paper" about the tiger.



Point taken of course, but one does not usually measure an army's effectiveness against innocent civilians.


NotAYakk said:


> The point is that Russia's military looked large.  People knew it had problems, but prior to Ukraine saying it wasn't a top10 world military would be ridiculed.



I heard a comedian say "We thought Russia had the second best army in the world. Turns out they had the second best army in Ukraine."


----------



## Baron Opal II

What are the oil reserves around Crimea and the north shore of the Black Sea?


----------



## Zardnaar

Baron Opal II said:


> What are the oil reserves around Crimea and the north shore of the Black Sea?




 They have gas reserved but needs investment.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sacrosanct said:


> War is worse than Hell.  Cue the scene from M.A.S.H.
> 
> When this started, I felt my heart breaking.  Not just because I knew there would be devastation and destruction of the towns and villages.  Not because I knew there would be civilian casualties.  And not because I knew it would be revealed that the Russians and their mercenaries would end up brutalizing and committing war crimes upon civilians.  But also because I knew the suffering won't stop after the Russians leave.  Surviving Ukrainians will in turn brutalize those neighbors they thought were sympathizers of the Russians.  Doesn't matter if that person was forced at gunpoint to help the Russian army.  When you have a brutalized and devastated population, they will look at any reason to enact revenge and seek what they feel is justice, especially those who they _think _are traitors.
> 
> It doesn't stop there either.  Even after all of that stops, the nightmares will haunt these people for a generation.  Those are the reasons I have been so moved by all of this.  I saw it all firsthand in Bosnia, so I knew what was going to happen, even if our media is acting shocked and surprised.  It's what happens in every war.
> 
> It would be a huge mistake, IMO, to underestimate the Russian army fighting capability.  This disaster (militarily speaking) for them was because they thought it would be a cakewalk.  That led to a lack of logistical efforts in place to sustain a longer invasion.  And the average soldier had no idea what they were doing at first, causing morale issues and lack of organization.
> 
> Many of those issues have been addressed.  Russia pulled back and consolidated in other areas for a second attack.  This second attack will be more effective for them.  Putin brought in additional mercenaries who are more experienced than the original conscripts.  I'm not saying they will take over Ukraine, but I suspect there will be a second offensive, and it will be much worse for the Ukrainians than the first was.




 It's a numbers game though and it's not looking great for Russia. 

 On paper they have 900k military but that's across all services including internal security. 

 Think they have around 300k available in the actual army of which 200k got sent to Ukraine. 

 But the BtGs haves big flaw they have very few infantry. Of that 200k less than 40k were infantry.  

 It's like their 12000 tanks on paper of which only 2500 odd are useable of which less than half are "modernized". 

 So they've lost a very large % of Frontline vehicles and are short of infantry.

 So unless they're willing to call up reserves and conscripts (something Ukraine did the day before)


----------



## Eltab

Umbran said:


> I am pretty sure the civilians in, say, Bucha, would say there's nothing "paper" about the tiger.



I have not heard responsibility assigned to any particular unit (yet).  It could have been a non-Army (but Russian Government) unit - think the S.S. or Gestapo units in WWII - whose job is to implement Party policy, distinct from State policy.  It could have been one of the 'mercenary' units, which to my observation have been brought in exactly to threaten civilians "you better give up now or these guys will get really mad" and work themselves up to creating an atrocity.

If Bucha _was_ committed by a typical regular unit, then yes the Russian Army is a paper tiger, wandering off its primary objectives to grab an easy "win" that is no military challenge or display of skill at all.  How hard is it for a tiger to kill a mouse?


----------



## Horwath

Baron Opal II said:


> What are the oil reserves around Crimea and the north shore of the Black Sea?



possibly enough to put Russia out of business with EU.
Or, its the real reason for russian annexation of Crimea and Donbas


----------



## Zardnaar

This guy briefly covers the gas fields in Ukraine. Discovered 2010.


----------



## Baron Opal II

Horwath said:


> possibly enough to put Russia out of business with EU.
> Or, its the real reason for russian annexation of Crimea and Donbas



I was just thinking that.

Russia has a lot of business, and no small amount of leverage with energy supply.

Invading Ukraine to rebuild empire? Maybe.
To obtain a buffer state? Okay.
To gain access / control of the Black Sea? Sure.
To control wheat / grain supply? Reasonable.
To eliminate an energy rival / gain an energy monopoly? Bingo.


----------



## Imaculata

The images from Bucha, and the horrified reactions of people there, will haunt me forever. But most likely things are going to get worse before they get better.

Currently the US is moving a ton of military vehicles through the Netherlands to Poland for a 'military training'. It is good to see Biden putting more pressure on Russia.


----------



## billd91

Eltab said:


> I have not heard responsibility assigned to any particular unit (yet).  It could have been a non-Army (but Russian Government) unit - think the S.S. or Gestapo units in WWII - whose job is to implement Party policy, distinct from State policy.  It could have been one of the 'mercenary' units, which to my observation have been brought in exactly to threaten civilians "you better give up now or these guys will get really mad" and work themselves up to creating an atrocity.
> 
> If Bucha _was_ committed by a typical regular unit, then yes the Russian Army is a paper tiger, wandering off its primary objectives to grab an easy "win" that is no military challenge or display of skill at all.  How hard is it for a tiger to kill a mouse?



Lots of people put all the blame on the SS or Gestapo, but forget that the Wehrmacht itself also ran amok over Polish, Jewish, and Soviet civilians, directly aided the Einsatzgruppen, and signed on to the policy to deliberately starve Soviet POWs to death, men whose care was their direct responsibility.
I wouldn't put much stock in it being a non-Army unit - the Russian army units are quite capable of committing atrocities in Ukraine if ordered/expected to do so.


----------



## UngainlyTitan

billd91 said:


> Lots of people put all the blame on the SS or Gestapo, but forget that the Wehrmacht itself also ran amok over Polish, Jewish, and Soviet civilians, directly aided the Einsatzgruppen, and signed on to the policy to deliberately starve Soviet POWs to death, men whose care was their direct responsibility.
> I wouldn't put much stock in it being a non-Army unit - the Russian army units are quite capable of committing atrocities in Ukraine if ordered/expected to do so.



Given the reported level of bullying in the Russian army and the lack of a long service NCO element the behaviour of the Russian army is not all that surprising. You take a bunch of young men, brutalise them, let them loose in a foreign country with poor supply, constant stress of ambush this sort of thing will happen.
That said, there is the possibility that some of this is organised from above in which case the scenarios could get a lot grimmer if Ukraine manages to liberate areas in the east.


----------



## Zardnaar

UngainlyTitan said:


> Given the reported level of bullying in the Russian army and the lack of a long service NCO element the behaviour of the Russian army is not all that surprising. You take a bunch of young men, brutalise them, let them loose in a foreign country with poor supply, constant stress of ambush this sort of thing will happen.
> That said, there is the possibility that some of this is organised from above in which case the scenarios could get a lot grimmer if Ukraine manages to liberate areas in the east.




 It will be worse in the east.

 They never elementated that bullying element although apparently it's improved over 2010 which was an improvement over 90's and late USSR days.


----------



## Imaculata

One of our colleagues from Ukraine shared this with us. They are cleaning landmines on the highway to Kyiv by pushing them aside with their feet.

These are probably landmines that only trigger at the weight of a heavy vehicle, but this hasn't stopped some civilians from Yolo-ing their vehicle through the minefield.

Also, despite warning signs at the beaches, some people choose to ignore those warnings, with deadly results.


----------



## Horwath

Imaculata said:


> One of our colleagues from Ukraine shared this with us. They are cleaning landmines on the highway to Kyiv by pushing them aside with their feet.
> 
> These are probably landmines that only trigger at the weight of a heavy vehicle, but this hasn't stopped some civilians from Yolo-ing their vehicle through the minefield.
> 
> Also, despite warning signs at the beaches, some people choose to ignore those warnings, with deadly results.



well, most modern "anti-tank" mines have detonators set at 300-800kg, so they are safe for handling, unless they are fitted with anti-handling device. And as they have high detonator limit, small cars might be perfectly safe to drive over them.


----------



## Zardnaar

Imaculata said:


> One of our colleagues from Ukraine shared this with us. They are cleaning landmines on the highway to Kyiv by pushing them aside with their feet.
> 
> These are probably landmines that only trigger at the weight of a heavy vehicle, but this hasn't stopped some civilians from Yolo-ing their vehicle through the minefield.
> 
> Also, despite warning signs at the beaches, some people choose to ignore those warnings, with deadly results.




 Those are anti tank mines. 

 Early in war Ukraine civilian moved one dressed like a gopnik in adidas smoking a cigarette.

Found it.


----------



## Umbran

Rabulias said:


> Point taken of course, but one does not usually measure an army's effectiveness against innocent civilians.




The fact that we tend to separate "military effectiveness" from the impact upon civilians is a problem.  War is not an abstract game of chess, folks, and if you just sweep the impacts under the rug as "war is hell" you are dismissing the actual long term costs.  

Sure.  Paper tiger. Mariupol is still flattened, and war crimes are going on, but sure, that tiger isn't a threat.  No teeth.

I guess that tiger is gumming people to death and leaving them in mass graves.


----------



## UngainlyTitan

Umbran said:


> The fact that we tend to separate "military effectiveness" from the impact upon civilians is a problem.  War is not an abstract game of chess, folks, and if you just sweep the impacts under the rug as "war is hell" you are dismissing the actual long term costs.
> 
> Sure.  Paper tiger. Mariupol is still flattened, and war crimes are going on, but sure, that tiger isn't a threat.  No teeth.
> 
> I guess that tiger is gumming people to death and leaving them in mass graves.



I think that is reasonable to discuss the military capabilities of an army versus other armies with out having to acknowledge that any armed mob can murder a lot of civilians. 
I am not saying this to dismiss the gravity of the murders in Ukraine but a discussion about military capabilities is not unreasonable?


----------



## Rabulias

Umbran said:


> The fact that we tend to separate "military effectiveness" from the impact upon civilians is a problem.  War is not an abstract game of chess, folks, and if you just sweep the impacts under the rug as "war is hell" you are dismissing the actual long term costs.
> 
> Sure.  Paper tiger. Mariupol is still flattened, and war crimes are going on, but sure, that tiger isn't a threat.  No teeth.
> 
> I guess that tiger is gumming people to death and leaving them in mass graves.



I don't think we are dismissing the atrocities in Ukraine in any way. "War is hell" is a significant statement. Think about what it is saying: war is a form of ultimate eternal suffering; there is nothing worse. It only sounds trite because it has, sadly, needed to be used far too often in the past (and the present).

The assessment of the Russian army's capabilities was weighed against other armies in the world in a tactical and strategic sense. No one expects civilians to fare well against an armed force, much less repel/defeat an army. It often takes _another army _to do that. This reputation has deterred other nations from engaging militarily with Russia, almost as much as their chemical weapon and nuclear weapon capacity.

And consider how much worse the civilian casualties and destruction would be if the Russian army was the efficient, top-tier fighting force it was thought to be.


----------



## Ryujin

To paraphrase Hawkeye Pearce: War is war and Hell is Hell. Of the two war is worse, because there are no innocents in Hell.


----------



## Ulfgeir

The UN has kicked Russia of the Humans Rights commitee.
United Nations suspends Russia from human rights body over Ukraine


----------



## South by Southwest

Ulfgeir said:


> The UN has kicked Russia of the Humans Rights commitee.
> United Nations suspends Russia from human rights body over Ukraine



Overdue, but good.


----------



## Baron Opal II

What meaning does that have, besides "we don't like you"?


----------



## Rabulias

Baron Opal II said:


> What meaning does that have, besides "we don't like you"?



It seems to be a bit of a contradiction to have a country doing what Russia is doing being on a "Human Rights Council." Admittedly they are not the only contradictory HRC membership (which we will not go into here), but it is the most egregious one at the moment.


----------



## Sepulchrave II

Baron Opal II said:


> I was just thinking that.
> 
> Russia has a lot of business, and no small amount of leverage with energy supply.
> 
> Invading Ukraine to rebuild empire? Maybe.
> To obtain a buffer state? Okay.
> To gain access / control of the Black Sea? Sure.
> To control wheat / grain supply? Reasonable.
> To eliminate an energy rival / gain an energy monopoly? Bingo.



Here's a map of Ukraine's natural gas reserves:


----------



## Horwath

Sepulchrave II said:


> Here's a map of Ukraine's natural gas reserves:
> 
> View attachment 154987



there is also huge deposits of lithium around Mariupol.

Guess if you do not have a city near ecological bomb of lithium mining you have less protests for that...


----------



## Baron Opal II

Sepulchrave II said:


> Here's a map of Ukraine's natural gas reserves:





Horwath said:


> there is also huge deposits of lithium around Mariupol.
> 
> Guess if you do not have a city near ecological bomb of lithium mining you have less protests for that...




And there it is. Food, energy, and future energy and tech base. I was just reading an article somewhere about the salt flats actually having a lot of lithium, and the ecological debate on lithium mining (local toxicities vs improved energy storage).

That makes sense to me. In particular, why absolutely hammer Mariupol? I see the angle.


----------



## Zardnaar

Found Ukrainian products to buy. 



 Russian beer go F yourself.


----------



## trappedslider

well this is interesting Report: Sweden and Finland to join NATO over Ukraine invasion


----------



## billd91

trappedslider said:


> well this is interesting Report: Sweden and Finland to join NATO over Ukraine invasion



You know, if someone had told me a decade ago that I might get a chance to hear about Finnish snipers taking on Soviet... sorry, Russian soldiers in my lifetime, I wouldn't have believed them.


----------



## Ryujin

Looking at the videos of "Ukrainian Curling" all that i can think of Camper Van Beethoven's song "Take the Skinheads Bowling."


----------



## Hussar

trappedslider said:


> well this is interesting Report: Sweden and Finland to join NATO over Ukraine invasion



I was having a convo with a friend the other day and he insisted that the invasion was a result of NATO expansion - more or less blaming, at least in part, the US and NATO for the invasion - and I predicted that within 10 years NATO would massively expand.  Right prediction, massively wrong timeline.


----------



## billd91

Hussar said:


> I was having a convo with a friend the other day and he insisted that the invasion was a result of NATO expansion - more or less blaming, at least in part, the US and NATO for the invasion - and I predicted that within 10 years NATO would massively expand.  Right prediction, massively wrong timeline.



There are quite a few conservatives spinning this line but I’m not entirely sure it’s completely wrong or completely alien to international relations. Just imagine how concerned we’d be if Canada joined an alliance with China. And, historically, look at how we lost our naughty word over Cuba.

There‘s no doubt that the expansion of NATO is a source of significant tension and undermines Russian prestige on the international stage. And there’s no doubt it has bred resentment at the Kremlin. Ukraine’s shift to a more actively pro-EU is the proximate event that sparked Russia’s reaction.

It’s entirely reasonable to consider Russia’s reaction a gross overreaction, particularly when you keep in mind that the expansion was largely driven by former Soviet republics/satellite states looking for protection, but there are schools of thought that consider this semi-normal behavior in international relations.


----------



## GreyLord

Where did I see this...maybe here...can't recall...BUT...

A lot of comparison of what Russia is like today and what it has been doing has been compared to the Nazi's...or at least what we, in the West, see Nazi's as.

It is very popular in Ukraine to also see them as such these days, with the Z that Russians have on their vehicles being utilized as a naZi symbol, or the new Nazi symbol

HOWEVER...

One point of view that I've seen related in how Russians view the Nazi's is very different than our views.  They didn't care that the Nazi's had the Holocaust (and in fact, it is thought that Stalin killed a lot more Jews and other minorities, some guesses as high as 3X as many as Hitler and the Nazi's did).  They didn't care that the Nazi's were facists.   What they DID care about was that the Nazi's attacked Russia and then tried to eradicate Russian culture.  Thus, those who attempt to destroy or harm Russia by default fall under their idea of what a Nazi is.

In this definition NATO and Europe have definately been the Nazi's to the Russian People over the past 25 years.  It was not so much that new nations separated and became new nations from the Soviet Block after the fall of the USSR, butt that it appears that the Russian cultural impact and effect is disappearing and being replaced with Western morals and cultural views.  It is a NEW invasion upon Russian heritage and culture.  The last time this happened was the Great War against the Nazi's.  It is THIS comparison to Nazi's that they are making (NOT the one that we are making).  In this light, to them, WE are the invaders, and as we appropriate former Soviet nations into the Western umbrella, to them it is akin to what happened in World War 2 as the Nazi's slowly took over various lands owned by the USSR.

To them, the Nazi's are not what we view Nazi's as, but those who destroy Russian culture and try to change it to a different one.  As more areas of what they consider Russian nations are enveloped and then accepted into the EU and NATO, it would probably seem to them as if a New Nazi (in their definition) threat has arisen to destroy the Russian people once more.  

To be clear...

I DO NOT AGREE WITH THE ABOVE IDEAS.  I DO NOT AGREE WITH THE RUSSIAN ATTACK ON UKRAINE.  I SUPPORT UKRAINE AND BELIEVE THEY ARE THE GOOD GUYS IN ALL OF THIS, AND RUSSIA IS BEING THE AGGRESSOR AND THE BAD GUYS.

I pointed out the above view because it may be that we and the Russians are saying things that use the same words, but mean VERY DIFFERENT things to each side.


----------



## South by Southwest

GreyLord said:


> I pointed out the above view because it may be that we and the Russians are saying things that use the same words, but mean VERY DIFFERENT things to each side.



I have often found this to be the case, and not just in politics.


----------



## Zardnaar

GreyLord said:


> Where did I see this...maybe here...can't recall...BUT...
> 
> A lot of comparison of what Russia is like today and what it has been doing has been compared to the Nazi's...or at least what we, in the West, see Nazi's as.
> 
> It is very popular in Ukraine to also see them as such these days, with the Z that Russians have on their vehicles being utilized as a naZi symbol, or the new Nazi symbol
> 
> HOWEVER...
> 
> One point of view that I've seen related in how Russians view the Nazi's is very different than our views.  They didn't care that the Nazi's had the Holocaust (and in fact, it is thought that Stalin killed a lot more Jews and other minorities, some guesses as high as 3X as many as Hitler and the Nazi's did).  They didn't care that the Nazi's were facists.   What they DID care about was that the Nazi's attacked Russia and then tried to eradicate Russian culture.  Thus, those who attempt to destroy or harm Russia by default fall under their idea of what a Nazi is.
> 
> In this definition NATO and Europe have definately been the Nazi's to the Russian People over the past 25 years.  It was not so much that new nations separated and became new nations from the Soviet Block after the fall of the USSR, butt that it appears that the Russian cultural impact and effect is disappearing and being replaced with Western morals and cultural views.  It is a NEW invasion upon Russian heritage and culture.  The last time this happened was the Great War against the Nazi's.  It is THIS comparison to Nazi's that they are making (NOT the one that we are making).  In this light, to them, WE are the invaders, and as we appropriate former Soviet nations into the Western umbrella, to them it is akin to what happened in World War 2 as the Nazi's slowly took over various lands owned by the USSR.
> 
> To them, the Nazi's are not what we view Nazi's as, but those who destroy Russian culture and try to change it to a different one.  As more areas of what they consider Russian nations are enveloped and then accepted into the EU and NATO, it would probably seem to them as if a New Nazi (in their definition) threat has arisen to destroy the Russian people once more.
> 
> To be clear...
> 
> I DO NOT AGREE WITH THE ABOVE IDEAS.  I DO NOT AGREE WITH THE RUSSIAN ATTACK ON UKRAINE.  I SUPPORT UKRAINE AND BELIEVE THEY ARE THE GOOD GUYS IN ALL OF THIS, AND RUSSIA IS BEING THE AGGRESSOR AND THE BAD GUYS.
> 
> I pointed out the above view because it may be that we and the Russians are saying things that use the same words, but mean VERY DIFFERENT things to each side.




 Broadly speaking their use of Nazi means anyone who opposes Russia. 

 They'll use it whenever it's convenient. They've ramped up the propaganda last 12 years or so about the great patriotic war.

 YouTube the May 9th parades.


----------



## MGibster

trappedslider said:


> well this is interesting Report: Sweden and Finland to join NATO over Ukraine invasion



When Russia invaded, a lot of people predicted Russia was about to get a lot more NATO than less of it.  



Hussar said:


> I was having a convo with a friend the other day and he insisted that the invasion was a result of NATO expansion - more or less blaming, at least in part, the US and NATO for the invasion - and I predicted that within 10 years NATO would massively expand. Right prediction, massively wrong timeline.



I sometimes hear a similar line from Soviet apologists.  i.e.  That the Soviets were right to be paranoid about the west which justified their actions in Eastern Europe from 1945-1980s.  I've heard the argument form others that NATO's expansion gave Russia cause for alarm.  In while most of them don't outright say this justifies the invasion, at the very least they lay the blame at the United States as if Russia isn't responsible for their own actions.  But they are partially right, I think.  While I don't believe for a second that Putin was afraid NATO was going to invade, joining NATO has pulled countries like Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, etc., etc. further away from the Russian sphere of influence.  That's what Putin is afraid of.  That Ukraine was a burgeoning democratic country headed closer to Europe and further from Russian influence was what had to be stopped.  



GreyLord said:


> In this definition NATO and Europe have definately been the Nazi's to the Russian People over the past 25 years. It was not so much that new nations separated and became new nations from the Soviet Block after the fall of the USSR, butt that it appears that the Russian cultural impact and effect is disappearing and being replaced with Western morals and cultural views.



If only Russians stopped and asked themselves, "Why do all these countries not want to be our friend and instead choose to cozy up to NATO and the EU?"  It's because a lot of those countries remember what life was like under the Soviet Union.  Many of them didn't exactly choose to be satellite nations.  NATO never invaded another NATO country.  But the Soviets weren't shy about invading Hungary.


----------



## billd91

MGibster said:


> But the Soviets weren't shy about invading Hungary.



To be fair, the Hungarians hadn’t been shy about invading the Soviet Union in 1941. Or earlier in WWI for that matter. So it wasn’t hard to understand the Soviet crackdown in 1956.


----------



## Zardnaar

MGibster said:


> When Russia invaded, a lot of people predicted Russia was about to get a lot more NATO than less of it.
> 
> 
> I sometimes hear a similar line from Soviet apologists.  i.e.  That the Soviets were right to be paranoid about the west which justified their actions in Eastern Europe from 1945-1980s.  I've heard the argument form others that NATO's expansion gave Russia cause for alarm.  In while most of them don't outright say this justifies the invasion, at the very least they lay the blame at the United States as if Russia isn't responsible for their own actions.  But they are partially right, I think.  While I don't believe for a second that Putin was afraid NATO was going to invade, joining NATO has pulled countries like Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, etc., etc. further away from the Russian sphere of influence.  That's what Putin is afraid of.  That Ukraine was a burgeoning democratic country headed closer to Europe and further from Russian influence was what had to be stopped.
> 
> 
> If only Russians stopped and asked themselves, "Why do all these countries not want to be our friend and instead choose to cozy up to NATO and the EU?"  It's because a lot of those countries remember what life was like under the Soviet Union.  Many of them didn't exactly choose to be satellite nations.  NATO never invaded another NATO country.  But the Soviets weren't shy about invading Hungary.




 Then it becomes the wests fault brainwashing them. 

  I've heard their tv is like Fox news but on 11 different channels the difference being the colours.


----------



## John R Davis

Clearly Mr PiNut is a megalomaniac going further of the rails.

Reports of chemical weapons attack are very worrying, and the all nations of the world should unite in condemnation, and action, if proved true.


----------



## Horwath

John R Davis said:


> Clearly Mr PiNut is a megalomaniac going further of the rails.
> 
> Reports of chemical weapons attack are very worrying, and the all nations of the world should unite in condemnation, and action, if proved true.



What action?

Either rest of the world calls Putin's bluff about using nukes if NATO interferes(if it is a bluff) and NATO bombs the #### out of every russian position in Crimea/Donbass or things continue as they are now. Just funneling weapons so Ukraine can deal with this with their own troops. Plus some misc mercenaries.


----------



## John R Davis

China to vote to condemn this if it turns out to be true would be a start.
It's not NATOs role it's the worlds


----------



## Imaculata

John R Davis said:


> China to vote to condemn this if it turns out to be true would be a start.
> It's not NATOs role it's the worlds



That seems unlikely to happen.


----------



## Horwath

Imaculata said:


> That seems unlikely to happen.



true.

they will remain silent/neutral about it.

They need lots of newly freed up energy from russia and they need west to sell their cheap products.


----------



## John R Davis

If the UN is so weak maybe time to have a reorganise, and redefine what "security" means.

Not sure how you handle warcrimes when 1000's are committing them.


----------



## Horwath

John R Davis said:


> Not sure how you handle warcrimes when 1000's are committing them.



you dont.

sad thing, but there will be next no none is prosecution of these crimes.
that is one more price to pay for isolating russia. they will not give their citizens for no incentive.

if some of the perpetrators have some anti-putin view point in the futura or some anti war sentiment, regime might sentence them to both keep them quiet and to show the "west" that they care about rule of law.


----------



## Ryujin

John R Davis said:


> If the UN is so weak maybe time to have a reorganise, and redefine what "security" means.
> 
> Not sure how you handle warcrimes when 1000's are committing them.



That's probably even less easy than amending the US Constitution given who currently has veto power in the Security Council, and the various power blocks involved.


----------



## Umbran

John R Davis said:


> If the UN is so weak maybe time to have a reorganise, and redefine what "security" means.




The major powers of the world are not going to sign on to a UN that has real power over them.  They have no incentive to do so.


----------



## Ulfgeir

Umbran said:


> The major powers of the world are not going to sign on to a UN that has real power over them.  They have no incentive to do so.



Unfortunately all to true.


----------



## Mannahnin

Hussar said:


> I was having a convo with a friend the other day and he insisted that the invasion was a result of NATO expansion - more or less blaming, at least in part, the US and NATO for the invasion - and I predicted that within 10 years NATO would massively expand.  Right prediction, massively wrong timeline.






MGibster said:


> I sometimes hear a similar line from Soviet apologists.  i.e.  That the Soviets were right to be paranoid about the west which justified their actions in Eastern Europe from 1945-1980s.  I've heard the argument form others that NATO's expansion gave Russia cause for alarm.  In while most of them don't outright say this justifies the invasion, at the very least they lay the blame at the United States as if Russia isn't responsible for their own actions.  But they are partially right, I think.  While I don't believe for a second that Putin was afraid NATO was going to invade, joining NATO has pulled countries like Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, etc., etc. further away from the Russian sphere of influence.  That's what Putin is afraid of.  That Ukraine was a burgeoning democratic country headed closer to Europe and further from Russian influence was what had to be stopped.
> 
> 
> If only Russians stopped and asked themselves, "Why do all these countries not want to be our friend and instead choose to cozy up to NATO and the EU?"  It's because a lot of those countries remember what life was like under the Soviet Union.  Many of them didn't exactly choose to be satellite nations.  NATO never invaded another NATO country.  But the Soviets weren't shy about invading Hungary.




NATO might be defunct nowadays if its neighbors weren't still scared of being invaded by Russia.  And now (and, TBF, 2008, with Georgia, and 2014 in Crimea) Russia is demonstrating why NATO is still relevant.  Way to make the case, Putin.


----------



## Mannahnin

GreyLord said:


> One point of view that I've seen related in how Russians view the Nazi's is very different than our views.  They didn't care that the Nazi's had the Holocaust (and in fact, it is thought that Stalin killed a lot more Jews and other minorities, some guesses as high as 3X as many as Hitler and the Nazi's did).  They didn't care that the Nazi's were facists.   What they DID care about was that the Nazi's attacked Russia and then tried to eradicate Russian culture.  Thus, those who attempt to destroy or harm Russia by default fall under their idea of what a Nazi is.




Yes, part of their national identity as the folks who beat the Nazis (and lost twenty million people doing it), which they increasingly lean on to grant moral legitimacy to their nationalist ideology, no matter how far they slide into fascist authoritarianism.


This existential fear you reference may go back at least to the Mongol conquest in the 13th century. One of my friends wrote a piece about this over the weekend.  Russia's had this continual theme of expansionist foreign policy, constantly seeking to expand their borders to defensible ones, because the Russian plains were basically indefensible between Poland and the Urals.  

And Russia, unlike many of their neighbors, never really had a period of relatively liberal capitalist society in their history.  They went from monarchy to communism to kleptocracy and now to quasi-dictatorship.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mannahnin said:


> Yes, part of their national identity as the folks who beat the Nazis (and lost twenty million people doing it), which they increasingly lean on to grant moral legitimacy to their nationalist ideology, no matter how far they slide into fascist authoritarianism.
> 
> 
> This existential fear you reference may go back at least to the Mongol conquest in the 13th century. One of my friends wrote a piece about this over the weekend.  Russia's had this continual theme of expansionist foreign policy, constantly seeking to expand their borders to defensible ones, because the Russian plains were basically indefensible between Poland and the Urals.
> 
> And Russia, unlike many of their neighbors, never really had a period of relatively liberal capitalist society in their history.  They went from monarchy to communism to kleptocracy and now to quasi-dictatorship.




 Well the Mongols/French/Nazis left emotional scares and in their mindset defensive=expansion.


----------



## nedjer

The next month will likely be more about the annual mud festival than more of the dramatic events of recent weeks. Fiver says we'll find Ukraine adapt to the conditions while Russian troops become ever more miserable.


----------



## Zardnaar

nedjer said:


> The next month will likely be more about the annual mud festival than more of the dramatic events of recent weeks. Fiver says we'll find Ukraine adapt to the conditions while Russian troops become ever more miserable.




 Ukraine doesn't really have to camp outside in it. 

  Watched this last night. Documentary on  the toewn of glory from the erm Great Patriotic War.


----------



## Eltab

John R Davis said:


> Clearly Mr PiNut is a megalomaniac going further of the rails.
> 
> Reports of chemical weapons attack are very worrying, and the all nations of the world should unite in condemnation, and action, if proved true.



Since sanctions are the order of the day, and this war is about whether Eastern European nations may choose to join NATO ...
NATO members could Lend-Lease (rather than sell) equipment to Ukraine, and help upgrading the railroads to get that equipment there.
Some of the first load of equipment should be chemical protective gear; make Putin look like a fool for opening _that_ can of worms, and for basically advertising what NATO membership helps keep away from you.


----------



## Eltab

nedjer said:


> The next month will likely be more about the annual mud festival than more of the dramatic events of recent weeks. Fiver says we'll find Ukraine adapt to the conditions while Russian troops become ever more miserable.



Normally, General Winter and Colonel Mud are the Russians' best officers.  We'll see if the Colonel has also been dismissed from service, as the General seems to have been.


----------



## Umbran

Eltab said:


> Normally, General Winter and Colonel Mud are the Russians' best officers.  We'll see if the Colonel has also been dismissed from service, as the General seems to have been.




Those officers are great on the defense.  Offense is not their forte - they aren't really what you'd call "go-getters".


----------



## Imaculata

Seems the purging of those around Putin has already started. It is a familiar and predictable ritual: Dictator surrounds himself with yes-men and makes gross mistakes. Dictator blames everyone but himself for his failures. Dictator starts removing the people around him that he holds accountable. 

The next step is sometimes that his people turn on him. We'll see if we are that lucky.


----------



## Zardnaar

Musical interlude. Kremlin has bling.


----------



## Ulfgeir

Imaculata said:


> Seems the purging of those around Putin has already started. It is a familiar and predictable ritual: Dictator surrounds himself with yes-men and makes gross mistakes. Dictator blames everyone but himself for his failures. Dictator starts removing the people around him that he holds accountable.
> 
> The next step is sometimes that his people turn on him. We'll see if we are that lucky.



I saw something that he had purged 150 members of the FSB, and they are his people.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ulfgeir said:


> I saw something that he had purged 150 members of the FSB, and they are his people.




 Think he's just firing them instead of purging them as such.


----------



## nedjer

Eltab said:


> Normally, General Winter and Colonel Mud are the Russians' best officers.  We'll see if the Colonel has also been dismissed from service, as the General seems to have been.



Unfortunately they can't rely on Sgt Get Your Bloody Wellies On due to their bizarre lack of NCOs.


----------



## nedjer

Zardnaar said:


> Think he's just firing them instead of purging them as such.



Some are getting house arrest others Lefortovo Prison, the latter is fired as in out of a cannon.


----------



## nedjer

A good day to contribute to EN's Ukraine KS or maybe buy some digital art from a Ukrainian?


----------



## Lidgar

Watched an episode of Frontline last night that did a fairly good job on portraying Putins rise to power and obsession with rebuilding an empire.









						Putin's Road to War | FRONTLINE
					

Watch "Putin's Road to War," FRONTLINE's March 2022 documentary on what led to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine.



					www.pbs.org


----------



## Mannahnin

I'm continually leery of US media pieces about how nasty Putin and Russia are, because I still feel seriously burned by all the media cheerleading for the Iraq war (and to a lesser extent, Afghanistan and Libya).  While I'm all in favor of supplying Ukraine and letting more countries join NATO, I still really hope this thing doesn't turn into another American war.

We all know Saddam was a brutal, horrible dictator.  We also know that our war of choice led to a million+ dead Iraqis and a lot of other horrible damage to their nation and waste of our own blood and treasure.


----------



## MGibster

Mannahnin said:


> I'm continually leery of US media pieces about how nasty Putin and Russia are, because I still feel seriously burned by all the media cheerleading for the Iraq war (and to a lesser extent, Afghanistan and Libya).



I suspect we won’t know the full “truth” for quite a while.  I am often leery of stories, and especially try to remain skeptical when I’m hearing what I want to hear.  What we do know is Russia invaded Ukraine without provocation.

And don’t worry about this turning into an American war.  It’s much more likely to turn into a European war with American involvement.  Something my grandparents would be familiar with.


----------



## Mannahnin

MGibster said:


> I suspect we won’t know the full “truth” for quite a while.  I am often leery of stories, and especially try to remain skeptical when I’m hearing what I want to hear.  What we do know is Russia invaded Ukraine without provocation.



Yes.  I think the conflict in Crimea specifically is probably more complex and nasty than people in the US are mostly interested in hearing about (possibly with no "good guys"), but at base, Russia's the aggressive party here, and their justifications for invasion reek of DARVO.


----------



## nedjer

Mannahnin said:


> I'm continually leery of US media pieces about how nasty Putin and Russia are, because I still feel seriously burned by all the media cheerleading for the Iraq war (and to a lesser extent, Afghanistan and Libya).  While I'm all in favor of supplying Ukraine and letting more countries join NATO, I still really hope this thing doesn't turn into another American war.
> 
> We all know Saddam was a brutal, horrible dictator.  We also know that our war of choice led to a million+ dead Iraqis and a lot of other horrible damage to their nation and waste of our own blood and treasure.



Hemingway ‘all war is a crime’ applies, however it seems a case of the least of a whole bucket of evils. The intention to hopscotch across Europe while undermining the US has been stated for a decade and acted upon. Now we have a democratic country defending itself against a regime that packs with portable crematoriums. The invaders are not going to suddenly turn into fluffy bunnies and degrading their military one tank at a time is the currently available solution.


----------



## Zardnaar

Complete this sentence.

 Russian Flagship go.........


----------



## nedjer

Zardnaar said:


> Complete this sentence.
> 
> Russian Flagship go.........


----------



## trappedslider

Russia warns Finland, Sweden against joining NATO, raises nuclear threat
					

Russia vowed Thursday that if Finland and Sweden join NATO, Moscow would bolster its troop presence and deploy nuclear weapons around the Baltic region.




					nypost.com
				




whelp


----------



## MGibster

The last time Russia was involved in a cold war against the west they lost because they couldn't afford it in the long run.  The Russian Federation does not have the power of the Soviet Union and I don't see another cold war going their way this time.  And sorry, Putin, we already know what you're willing to do against non-NATO countries.  Threatening someone to prevent them from joining NATO just doesn't have any power.


----------



## Imaculata

trappedslider said:


> Russia warns Finland, Sweden against joining NATO, raises nuclear threat
> 
> 
> Russia vowed Thursday that if Finland and Sweden join NATO, Moscow would bolster its troop presence and deploy nuclear weapons around the Baltic region.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nypost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> whelp




In that case, they're definitely joining NATO.

Way to go making their decision easier, Putin!


----------



## Ulfgeir

I think it is quite likely we will join. However, it does affect some things (like our ability to work towards banishment of nuclear weapons*, and to be able to do diplomatic forays. Not that we have been that successful in those), and the decision to joining NATO is something that should have a very broad political support.  We already do lots of trainings with NATO so our military is compatible, and we will start increasing our military budget..

The problem is if we do join, it will take some time before we are full members, and in the meantime we are vulnerable to further Russian aggressions.

* Would have been interesting to know how the situation had been if we had continued with our nuclear weapons program that we had in the 60s.  We definitively have the capability to make such weapons, but the politicians decided to scrap it.


----------



## Nikosandros

Ulfgeir said:


> The problem is if we do join, it will take some time before we are full members, and in the meantime we are vulnerable to further Russian aggressions.



My understanding is that the process will be greatly expedited, given the circumstances.


----------



## Horwath

Ulfgeir said:


> I think it is quite likely we will join. However, it does affect some things (like our ability to work towards banishment of nuclear weapons*, and to be able to do diplomatic forays. Not that we have been that successful in those), and the decision to joining NATO is something that should have a very broad political support.  We already do lots of trainings with NATO so our military is compatible, and we will start increasing our military budget..
> 
> The problem is if we do join, it will take some time before we are full members, and in the meantime we are vulnerable to further Russian aggressions.
> 
> * Would have been interesting to know how the situation had been if we had continued with our nuclear weapons program that we had in the 60s.  We definitively have the capability to make such weapons, but the politicians decided to scrap it.



nuclear weapons will never be banished, so maybe best situation is to (mostly) everyone to have them.


----------



## Horwath

Nikosandros said:


> My understanding is that the process will be greatly expedited, given the circumstances.



Doesn't article 5 apply to official candidates?


----------



## Cadence

Horwath said:


> nuclear weapons will never be banished, so maybe best situation is to (mostly) everyone to have them.



Lots of folks having them feels like it greatly increases the chances you will get an individual or government that is unstable enough to actually use one...


----------



## Horwath

Cadence said:


> Lots of folks having them feels like it greatly increases the chances you will get an individual or government that is unstable enough to actually use one...



if North Korea has them...


----------



## Cadence

Horwath said:


> if North Korea has them...



How many copies of that do you want if they do?


----------



## Sacrosanct

Cadence said:


> Lots of folks having them feels like it greatly increases the chances you will get an individual or government that is unstable enough to actually use one...



Not to mention the chances of an accident.  You don't get fewer car accidents by putting more cars on the road.  Looking at the history of near disasters with nukes in the past, more nukes is a very bad idea.


----------



## billd91

Horwath said:


> if North Korea has them...



And aside from the usual annual brinkmanship with South Korea and missile tests, they haven't really gotten into any shooting wars with anyone. So while they are run by people as nutty as squirrel poo, they're largely self-contained. No so with Russia right now. 
I had figured that the next likely nuclear exchanges, if any occur, would be between Pakistan and India, but now I'm not so sure Putin will have the discipline to not nuke Ukraine if he feels he's getting humiliated too badly.


----------



## Mannahnin

Ulfgeir said:


> The problem is if we do join, it will take some time before we are full members, and in the meantime we are vulnerable to further Russian aggressions.



You know what they say- the best time to plant a tree is twenty years ago.  The second-best time is today.

Still, I wish NATO wasn't needed anymore.


----------



## Zardnaar

nedjer said:


> View attachment 155308




 Heh.


----------



## Umbran

Horwath said:


> Doesn't article 5 apply to official candidates?




I don't think Article 5 applies until they are actually invited and the invitation accepted.

However, my understanding (and someone with more international law experience can correct me if I am wrong) is that all the time consuming processes could, in theory, be bypassed if the NATO Council unanimously approves it.   The summits that established the processes do not supersede the treaty as a whole - it isn't that they _cannot_ admit anyone without the process.  They just generally will not.


----------



## UngainlyTitan

Sacrosanct said:


> Not to mention the chances of an accident.  You don't get fewer car accidents by putting more cars on the road.  Looking at the history of near disasters with nukes in the past, more nukes is a very bad idea.



The thing about nukes is that they require a fair bit of technical and industrial capacity to prepare and maintain


----------



## GreyLord

Zardnaar said:


> Musical interlude. Kremlin has bling.




He's a little short for an Imperial...seems more like one of the Hutt's members...

Maybe someone manipulating things for the Hutts like Sarlac Crumb


----------



## Eltab

Zardnaar said:


> Complete this sentence.
> 
> Russian Flagship go.........



Go back to base.  Go directly back to base.  Do not pass GO; do not collect any more foreign-owned explosive ordinance. 

(Yes I have heard the reports (not yet confirmed) that _Moskva_ sank, but the pun on a Monopoly board was too good to pass up.)


----------



## reelo

New scale-model being released...


----------



## Zardnaar

AFAIK it's still floating not sure if it's a missile strike or explosion onboard. 

Also not sure what's more embarrassing. New Ukrainian missile vs incompetence on a Soviet relic.


----------



## Nikosandros

Zardnaar said:


> AFAIK it's still floating not sure if it's a missile strike or explosion onboard.
> 
> Also not sure what's more embarrassing. New Ukrainian missile vs incompetence on a Soviet relic.



Russia has declared that the ship has sunk. I agree with the rest of the post. An uncontrolled fire detonating ammunition would be worse than being hit by Ukrainian anti-ship missiles.


----------



## Eltab

reelo said:


> New scale-model being released...



As it happens, I bought and built that original model.  Never got around to painting it, though.

The as-constructed ship had helicopter facilities on the back half of the ship, and fewer missile launchers up front.  Video of the modernized ship left me wondering if it was really the same one.


----------



## Nikosandros

reelo said:


> New scale-model being released...



I kept trying to build this model, but today I finally gave up. I realized that I had succumbed to the sunk cost fallacy.


----------



## MGibster

reelo said:


> New scale-model being released...



That looks just like my Titanic model.


----------



## nedjer

Question is, who is going to claim the salvage first?


----------



## trappedslider

UngainlyTitan said:


> The thing about nukes is that they require a fair bit of technical and industrial capacity to prepare and maintain



oddly enough, all you have to do is spend a lot of time researching, and putting the info you do find together.  Tom Clancy actually intentionally fudged some details in his book Sum of All fears.

University of Chicago physics majors Justin Kasper and Fred Niell, as part of a scavenger hunt that had as one of its items "a breeder reactor built in a shed," successfully built a similar nuclear reactor that produced trace amounts of plutonium.









						The Boy Who Played With Fusion
					

"Propulsion," the nine-year-old says as he leads his dad through the gates of the U.S. Space and Rocket Center in Huntsville, Alabama. "I just want to see the propulsion stuff." A young woman guides their group toward a full-scale replica of the massive Saturn V rocket that brought America to...




					www.popsci.com
				




EDIT: The movie The Manhattan Project is pretty close other than at the time it would be very hard for the kid to figure out the lens placement without someone noticing and getting the plutonium.


----------



## trappedslider

And now for some better news Pink Floyd reunite for Ukraine protest song


----------



## UngainlyTitan

trappedslider said:


> oddly enough, all you have to do is spend a lot of time researching, and putting the info you do find together.  Tom Clancy actually intentionally fudged some details in his book Sum of All fears.
> 
> University of Chicago physics majors Justin Kasper and Fred Niell, as part of a scavenger hunt that had as one of its items "a breeder reactor built in a shed," successfully built a similar nuclear reactor that produced trace amounts of plutonium.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Boy Who Played With Fusion
> 
> 
> "Propulsion," the nine-year-old says as he leads his dad through the gates of the U.S. Space and Rocket Center in Huntsville, Alabama. "I just want to see the propulsion stuff." A young woman guides their group toward a full-scale replica of the massive Saturn V rocket that brought America to...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.popsci.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> EDIT: The movie The Manhattan Project is pretty close other than at the time it would be very hard for the kid to figure out the lens placement without someone noticing and getting the plutonium.



It is not the info it is the preparation of enough uranium of the right kind that is the big hurdle.


----------



## South by Southwest

_Glug glug glug glug glug glug_

Those "little Russians" just sank his battleship.


----------



## Zardnaar

South by Southwest said:


> _Glug glug glug glug glug glug_
> 
> Those "little Russians" just sank his battleship.




 B7.

 "Sergey are we invading Odessa soon?".
"Shut up Alexei and keep swimming".


----------



## Olgar Shiverstone

Zardnaar said:


> Complete this sentence.
> 
> Russian Flagship go.........



Glug glug glug.


----------



## Rabulias

UngainlyTitan said:


> The thing about nukes is that they require a fair bit of technical and industrial capacity to prepare and maintain



Yet another reason why it's not good for everyone and their sibling to have them. Even if you never fire them in anger, Very Bad Things can happen if you do not know what you are doing when making them or maintaining them. Not as bad as a detonation, but radiation exposure does not sound fun.


----------



## South by Southwest

Zardnaar said:


> *B7.*



Hey!, that's familiar. We've got a sometime-spammer on here who posts whole threads about that.


----------



## Zardnaar

Moskva was known as the Slava renamed to the Snake Island Memorial Reef.


----------



## J.Quondam




----------



## Zardnaar

J.Quondam said:


> View attachment 155356




Like that glorious advance north from Kyiv.


----------



## John R Davis

Have said since day one the Red Sea fleet just sitting ducks, and was the best way to hurt the Russian invaders. Far to close to a hostile shoreline.


----------



## Umbran

trappedslider said:


> oddly enough, all you have to do is spend a lot of time researching, and putting the info you do find together.  Tom Clancy actually intentionally fudged some details in his book Sum of All fears.
> 
> University of Chicago physics majors Justin Kasper and Fred Niell,




Note that creating a breeder reactor and a bomb are not the same thing.  The reactor is significantly easier to make than the weapon.


----------



## Ryujin

Umbran said:


> Note that creating a breeder reactor and a bomb are not the same thing.  The reactor is significantly easier to make than the weapon.



Except, of course, for the university undergrad who designed one in the 1970s, before the advent of the internet made research so much easier. As I recall from the interviews back then, the only thing that he was missing was Critical Mass. When asked about that he said that he just guessed it. When nuclear physicists were asked about it they said, "Yes, we pretty much did the same thing."


----------



## Umbran

Ryujin said:


> Except, of course, for the university undergrad who designed one in the 1970s, before the advent of the internet made research so much easier.




No "except".  Honestly, I can sketch the basic designs of either.  We covered them in my classes in undergrad and again in grad school.  but even detailed design is not the same as  building an actual working example.

This especially because a breeder reactor is a largely passive thing.  You have fuel, you have moderators, you have target material.  You run coolant around them to keep them from melting, and stuff just happens.  The cooling gets a little hairy if you are trying to do this at scale, because then you're doing plumbing for molten sodium.

A bomb, with bits that require microsecond timing, is a different beast to build.


----------



## Hussar

Hasn't that always been the scare of "dirty bombs"?  I'll admit my technical expertise is totally lacking, but, as I understand it, you don't build a proper nuclear weapon, but, rather something that will just irradiate a fairly large area.  Much more of a terrorist weapon than something a military would deploy.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Hasn't that always been the scare of "dirty bombs"?  I'll admit my technical expertise is totally lacking, but, as I understand it, you don't build a proper nuclear weapon, but, rather something that will just irradiate a fairly large area.  Much more of a terrorist weapon than something a military would deploy.




 Dirty bombs are a conventional explosion with nuclear material. There's no fission reaction.


----------



## Hussar

Zardnaar said:


> Dirty bombs are a conventional explosion with nuclear material. There's no fission reaction.




Yes. That’s what I meant. 

You need more than just raw uranium to make a dirty bomb but it’s a lot easier than making a nuclear bomb.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> Yes. That’s what I meant.
> 
> You need more than just raw uranium to make a dirty bomb but it’s a lot easier than making a nuclear bomb.




 Nuclear bombs aren't exactly high tech. Getting the material is the hard part. 

 Due to sabre rattling apparently the Finn's have sent elite units to the border. Tractors advance!!!









						Tämäkö on sitä hybridisotaa? Suomalaiskaverukset vastasivat Venäjältä levinneeseen videoon
					

Ensin Twitterissä levisi video Venäjän asekaluston väitetystä liikkumisesta Suomen rajaa kohti. Suomalaiskaverukset päättivät nokitella traktorivideolla.




					www-is-fi.translate.goog


----------



## Mirtek

Zardnaar said:


> Broadly speaking their use of Nazi means anyone who opposes Russia.



So almost like on the internet where Nazi means anyone who opposes you


----------



## Zardnaar

Mirtek said:


> So almost like on the internet where Nazi means anyone who opposes you




 Pretty much the terms been devalued. 

 Key difference with Putin there's no ideology beyond nationalism and kleptocracy. USSR had better soft power due to Communism having some amount of appeal.


----------



## Hussar

So, hung out last night with my Ukranian friend.  Plus side, her mother is arriving here in Japan in a few days and it looks like the town is going to kick in pretty well for taking care of her.  Bunch arrived at the airport last night.

It was a bit strange talking to her though.  She's Russian Ukrainian and her perspective is quite different from what I see in the news.  I found myself just biting my tongue an awful lot.


----------



## Zardnaar

Hussar said:


> So, hung out last night with my Ukranian friend.  Plus side, her mother is arriving here in Japan in a few days and it looks like the town is going to kick in pretty well for taking care of her.  Bunch arrived at the airport last night.
> 
> It was a bit strange talking to her though.  She's Russian Ukrainian and her perspective is quite different from what I see in the news.  I found myself just biting my tongue an awful lot.




 Used to work with boat crew out of Odessa. Think most were Russian though. Mostly good bunch but interesting at times


----------



## Mannahnin

Zardnaar said:


> Pretty much the terms been devalued.



There are always fools who misuse terms.  Especially ones freighted with emotional impact.  That doesn't mean the terms become meaningless.


----------



## nedjer

When your Javelin receives the blessing of St Javelin.


----------



## Zardnaar

nedjer said:


> When your Javelin receives the blessing of St Javelin.
> 
> View attachment 155538




 There's also Padre Panzerfaust the Third.


----------



## trappedslider

This could get wider









						Russian General Lets Slip a Secret Plan to Invade Another Country and Seize Ukraine’s Entire Coastline
					

Artyom AnikeevAs Russian troops tighten their grip on the strategic port town of Mariupol, their strategy is finally becoming clear. Russian military commander Rustam Minnekaev now says the second phase of President Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” is focused on establishing a “land...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## UngainlyTitan

trappedslider said:


> This could get wider
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian General Lets Slip a Secret Plan to Invade Another Country and Seize Ukraine’s Entire Coastline
> 
> 
> Artyom AnikeevAs Russian troops tighten their grip on the strategic port town of Mariupol, their strategy is finally becoming clear. Russian military commander Rustam Minnekaev now says the second phase of President Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” is focused on establishing a “land...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com



This is not new, Russias previous action in the vicinity of Odessa supports the interpretation that Odessa and probably Moldovia were targets of the Russian invasion all along. 

The military question now being addressed is: can Russia gain and hold the Donbass and Luhansk oblasts and force Ukraine to accept a ceasefire or peace ceding Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk?


----------



## Zardnaar

Lukashenko put up a map showing that near the start of the war


----------



## nedjer

UngainlyTitan said:


> This is not new, Russias previous action in the vicinity of Odessa supports the interpretation that Odessa and probably Moldovia were targets of the Russian invasion all along.
> 
> The military question now being addressed is: can Russia gain and hold the Donbass and Luhansk oblasts and force Ukraine to accept a ceasefire or peace ceding Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk?



Putin's plans going back years involved advancing to the Atlantic. They will likely continue to do so until most of his metal has been melted.


----------



## nedjer

Ukraine has made photos and graphics available for the use of those supporting them/ independent journalists. They are also asking for more graphics, which seems worth a thought if you're snappy with Photoshop and such like.

Child injured during the fight in Mariupol receives medical-care-at Zaporizhzhia childrens hospital, March 2022, by Emin Ozmen.


----------



## Ryujin

Ukranian guy used "Find My..." to find the Airpods, that were taken after his apartment was ransacked, to an area in Russia. Who needs satellites?









						A Ukrainian man whose apartment was ransacked tracks his missing AirPods for clues on Russian troop movements
					

Vitaliy Semenets said he used Apple's "Find My" feature to discover his AirPods were taken from his home near Ukraine's capital to a region in Russia.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Zardnaar

American who lived in Kyiv prewar returned to Lviv. Pocket of relative normalcy. 


  Interesting if kinda long video.


----------



## Mezuka

I learned a new word today thanks to Joe Biden's speech:

*Kleptocracy* (from Greek κλέπτης _kléptēs_, "thief", κλέπτω _kléptō_, "I steal", and -κρατία -_kratía_ from κράτος _krátos_, "power, rule") is a government whose corrupt leaders (kleptocrats) use political power to appropriate the wealth of the people and land they govern, typically by embezzling or misappropriating government funds at the expense of the wider population.[1][2] *Thievocracy* means literally the rule by thievery and is a term used synonymously to kleptocracy.[3][4] One feature of political-based socioeconomic thievery is that there is often no public announcement explaining or apologizing for misappropriations, nor any legal charges or punishment levied against the offenders.[5]

Kleptocracy is different from plutocracy (rule by the richest) and oligarchy (rule by a small elite). In a kleptocracy, corrupt politicians enrich themselves secretly outside the rule of law, through kickbacks, bribes, and special favors, or they simply direct state funds to themselves and their associates. Also, kleptocrats often export much of their profits to foreign nations in anticipation of losing power.[6]


----------



## Zardnaar

Mezuka said:


> I learned a new word today thanks to Joe Biden's speech:
> 
> *Kleptocracy* (from Greek κλέπτης _kléptēs_, "thief", κλέπτω _kléptō_, "I steal", and -κρατία -_kratía_ from κράτος _krátos_, "power, rule") is a government whose corrupt leaders (kleptocrats) use political power to appropriate the wealth of the people and land they govern, typically by embezzling or misappropriating government funds at the expense of the wider population.[1][2] *Thievocracy* means literally the rule by thievery and is a term used synonymously to kleptocracy.[3][4] One feature of political-based socioeconomic thievery is that there is often no public announcement explaining or apologizing for misappropriations, nor any legal charges or punishment levied against the offenders.[5]
> 
> Kleptocracy is different from plutocracy (rule by the richest) and oligarchy (rule by a small elite). In a kleptocracy, corrupt politicians enrich themselves secretly outside the rule of law, through kickbacks, bribes, and special favors, or they simply direct state funds to themselves and their associates. Also, kleptocrats often export much of their profits to foreign nations in anticipation of losing power.[6]




 Think I learnt that word in 1993. 1E dmg iirc.


----------



## Cadence

Zardnaar said:


> Think I learnt that word in 1993. 1E dmg iirc.



I was wondering to, and had to check. Nope, not that one:


----------



## Zardnaar

Cadence said:


> I was wondering to, and had to check. Nope, not that one:
> View attachment 156294




 Derp. 

 Watching this. American YouTuber who lived in Kyiv and Kharkiv.


 Left at start of war returned filmed on 22/4.


----------



## Mezuka

Zardnaar said:


> Think I learnt that word in 1993. 1E dmg iirc.



I learned the DMG list in 1981. Kleptocracy was definitely not in it.


----------



## Ryujin

Mezuka said:


> I learned the DMG list in 1981. Kleptocracy was definitely not in it.



I think that I picked it up around the same time as you learnt the DMG list, from a SciFi novel. "Oath of Fealty"? One of the "Dorsai!" series? Not sure.


----------



## Rabulias

Cadence said:


> I was wondering to, and had to check. Nope, not that one:



I learned the word ages ago, probably in the early 2000s as Putin began to solidify his hold on Russia. As for DMGs, 5th edition has you covered!


			
				5th Edition DMG p18 said:
			
		

> *Kleptocracy.* This government is composed of groups or individuals primarily seeking wealth for themselves, often at the expense of their subjects. The grasping Bandit Kingdoms in the Greyhawk campaign setting are prime examples. A kingdom run by thieves’ guilds would also fall into this category.


----------



## MGibster

I've often said that I've learned quite a few things from RPGs over the years.  From the various types of polearms in existence to a myriad of words I've added to my vocabulary, RPGs have broadened my horizons.  A few months back, I purchased Twilight 2000 with the intention of running a campaign, and the book details a lot of Soviet and NATO military equipment including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, RPGs, anti-tank guided missiles, etc., etc.  I was watching some news about the war and they described a vehicle as a tank and I immediately thought, "I think that's a BMP, not a tank."  (A BMP is an infantry fighting vehicle originally produced during the Soviet era.)  I can't normally tell the difference between specific types of military vehicles so it was odd being able to.


----------



## Davies

Zardnaar said:


> Think I learnt that word in 1993. 1E dmg iirc.



For me it was *GURPS Voodoo: The Shadow War* in 1995 or shortly after.


----------



## Zardnaar

MGibster said:


> I've often said that I've learned quite a few things from RPGs over the years.  From the various types of polearms in existence to a myriad of words I've added to my vocabulary, RPGs have broadened my horizons.  A few months back, I purchased Twilight 2000 with the intention of running a campaign, and the book details a lot of Soviet and NATO military equipment including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, RPGs, anti-tank guided missiles, etc., etc.  I was watching some news about the war and they described a vehicle as a tank and I immediately thought, "I think that's a BMP, not a tank."  (A BMP is an infantry fighting vehicle originally produced during the Soviet era.)  I can't normally tell the difference between specific types of military vehicles so it was odd being able to.




 Watching the news is like watching my early 90's model collection. "There's a T-72, there's a MiG29" etc.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Watching the news is like watching my early 90's model collection. "There's a T-72, there's a MiG29" etc.



At this rate it might start to look like my 1980s board game collection.

"Oh, look. There's a MiG-15!"


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> At this rate it might start to look like my 1980s board game collection.
> 
> "Oh, look. There's a MiG-15!"




 Well might see ex Romanian MiG21.


----------



## Nikosandros

Zardnaar said:


> Well might see ex Romanian MiG21.



Haven't they grounded all of them?


----------



## Zardnaar

Nikosandros said:


> Haven't they grounded all of them?




Yes but theoretically they can still fly. 

 In a wartime situation things like safety standards go out the window.

 Aren't the Ukrainians getting F-16's though?


----------



## nedjer

Ukraine have nothing to gain from simply slugging it out with tanks and MIGs. They're using v up-to-date kit but for the type of conflict they're dealing with. Fancy snipers' rifles, loitering drones, real-time intelligence, SUVs, quad bikes, backpack missiles, night sights . . . Sorry but anyone in the middle of designing Ukraine the counter boardgame needs some new counters and no tanks on the table until General Mud departs the scene.

Kind of hoping there will be a squad level boardgame called Tractors.


----------



## Zardnaar

nedjer said:


> Ukraine have nothing to gain from simply slugging it out with tanks and MIGs. They're using v up-to-date kit but for the type of conflict they're dealing with. Fancy snipers' rifles, loitering drones, real-time intelligence, SUVs, quad bikes, backpack missiles, night sights . . . Sorry but anyone in the middle of designing Ukraine the counter boardgame needs some new counters and no tanks on the table until General Mud departs the scene.
> 
> Kind of hoping there will be a squad level boardgame called Tractors.




 They need that sort of stuff to throw the Russians out. 

 Training time as well general mud lasts another month or two.


----------



## Eltab

Ryujin said:


> At this rate it might start to look like my 1980s board game collection.



I once invited some high-school friends over to play "Rise and Fall of the Third Reich".  It took 2 hours to put out all the counters, we started to play, did not finish the first turn before we had to pack it all up (because we had taken over the dinner table and the pizza arrived).


----------



## Ryujin

Eltab said:


> I once invited some high-school friends over to play "Rise and Fall of the Third Reich".  It took 2 hours to put out all the counters, we started to play, did not finish the first turn before we had to pack it all up (because we had taken over the dinner table and the pizza arrived).



A couple of my friends were big on wargaming. Me, not so much. Axis and Allies was a big one, but they also were running a long-term WWI air combat game, the name of which escapes me. They would bring people in as effective cannon fodder opponents to try and advance their pilots' ranking, which would give them things like more advanced aerobatics. I was invited and realized why very quickly.

They were fans of the Albatros and Fokker D VII, which both out turn most aircraft. Looking at the stats I chose a couple of SPAD S VII and foiled their attempts at taking them out by fighting on the vertical, not the horizontal. It went on for hours and their frustration was mounting. Dinner finally broke the stalemate and as I was the only one to have scored any hits, I effectively won. This, without really ever getting to know the game well at all. Pure dumb luck, I'd say. I wasn't invited to play again


----------



## Umbran

Zardnaar said:


> Yes but theoretically they can still fly.
> 
> In a wartime situation things like safety standards go out the window.




A plane that's been grounded and not maintained is not making it back into the air any time soon.  Modern military aircraft can't be parked for years, and just put back in the air like nothing happened.


----------



## Zardnaar

Umbran said:


> A plane that's been grounded and not maintained is not making it back into the air any time soon.  Modern military aircraft can't be parked for years, and just put back in the air like nothing happened.




 Romanians were flying then up to a few weeks ago. They grounded them due to a crash. 

 Get desperate enough they'll get used regardless if they'll fly a'la Luftwaffe in WW2. 

 Assuming the Romanians turn them over.  Idk if they will or not.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Zardnaar said:


> Yes but theoretically they can still fly.
> 
> In a wartime situation things like safety standards go out the window.



LOL, no they don't.  In certain situations, things become more lax, but they most certainly don't get thrown out the window, especially when it comes to aircraft.

If an aircraft has been idle for any length of time, you don't want to try to be flying it.  Between hydraulic fluid and seals, they are pretty temperamental things, and unlike a car (where if your engine or transmission goes you just stop going forward), an aircraft falls to the ground with much prejudice if something fails. 

For terms or full disclosure, I have never worked on a MIG or other modern fixed-wing aircraft.  But I was a mechanic for several rotary-wing aircraft (primarily UH-60), and you cannot take a grounded aircraft and make it airworthy without a ton of work.  Even in time of war.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sacrosanct said:


> LOL, no they don't.  In certain situations, things become more lax, but they most certainly don't get thrown out the window, especially when it comes to aircraft.
> 
> If an aircraft has been idle for any length of time, you don't want to try to be flying it.  Between hydraulic fluid and seals, they are pretty temperamental things, and unlike a car (where if your engine or transmission goes you just stop going forward), an aircraft falls to the ground with much prejudice if something fails.
> 
> For terms or full disclosure, I have never worked on a MIG or other modern fixed-wing aircraft.  But I was a mechanic for several rotary-wing aircraft (primarily UH-60), and you cannot take a grounded aircraft and make it airworthy without a ton of work.  Even in time of war.




 They were flying up to a month or so ago. They got grounded due to safety concerns. They're still capable of flying afaik. It's like when a 737 or whatever goes down and they ground the rest while they investigate. 

 It was when that Romanian helicopter went down think a MiG went down and 1-2 rescue helicopters also went down iirc. Think it was in early March iirc.

 The MiGs haven't been kept in long term storage they were being used up until March or so. 

 And we've seen footage of both Russians and Ukrainians using stuff that wouldn't pass muster in the west.


----------



## Sacrosanct

I was responding to your initial post in general, before it was pointed out why they were grounded.


----------



## Zardnaar

Sacrosanct said:


> I was responding to your initial post in general, before it was pointed out why they were grounded.




 I know why they're grounded but they can still fly. Whether it's a good idea to do that idk but the Russians have Ben recorded using WW2 equipment while Ukraine has resorted to WW1 equipment.

 If Romania turned those MiGs over as part of the cold war clear out of left over ex Warsaw pact equipment they can probably get them into the air.

 They're grounded as a safety precaution not because they can't fly as such. May not be a good idea flying them and idk how good Romanian maintenance has been on planes designed in the 50's a d built at best in the 80's.


----------



## nedjer

Zardnaar said:


> They need that sort of stuff to throw the Russians out.
> 
> Training time as well general mud lasts another month or two.



I don't doubt they can find uses for MIGs and tanks have been helping clear villages alongside infantry. However, anything that Russia has a chance of dealing with should only come after what they can't deal with. The latest fashion is to attach mortar shells to domestic drones and float a few of them over targets. Completely freaks the Russians out, damn all they can do about it and the operators are gone almost as soon as they appeared.


----------



## nedjer

As it happens dropping small firey gifts on your enemies was one of (the infamous) St Olga's specialities.


----------



## Zardnaar

nedjer said:


> I don't doubt they can find uses for MIGs and tanks have been helping clear villages alongside infantry. However, anything that Russia has a chance of dealing with should only come after what they can't deal with. The latest fashion is to attach mortar shells to domestic drones and float a few of them over targets. Completely freaks the Russians out, damn all they can do about it and the operators are gone almost as soon as they appeared.




 I know. Probably doesn't help much in driving Russians out that's what the incoming heavy weapons are for. 

Russia night not be in any shape to attack come June when ground dries up. 

  They've lost around half the tanks and vehicles etc they deployed in theatre (580/1200). 

 Who knows how may tanks they have out of the 2500-2800 they were supposed to have. 

 Lots of speculation they'll announce mobilization on May 9.


----------



## Sacrosanct

You can bet every modern army in the world is looking at the impact of drones on the combat field and taking notes.  IMO, I think it's as revolutionary to warfare as the utilization of mechanized warfare after WWI.  If I were a betting man, I'd bet wealthy countries are looking to speed run the development on unmanned intercept aircraft.  Imagine, a small aircraft allowing 12-hour flight times just patrolling for enemy aircraft, and since they are unmanned, they don't have to worry about G forces (or pilot death, naturally).


----------



## Zardnaar

Sacrosanct said:


> You can bet every modern army in the world is looking at the impact of drones on the combat field and taking notes.  IMO, I think it's as revolutionary to warfare as the utilization of mechanized warfare after WWI.  If I were a betting man, I'd bet wealthy countries are looking to speed run the development on unmanned intercept aircraft.  Imagine, a small aircraft allowing 12-hour flight times just patrolling for enemy aircraft, and since they are unmanned, they don't have to worry about G forces (or pilot death, naturally).




 Or you get some cheap almost disposable drone and put a shotgun on it.

 Something like the Gepard is better than S-400 for that purpose apparently.


----------



## Horwath

Zardnaar said:


> Or you get some cheap almost disposable drone and put a shotgun on it.
> 
> Something like the Gepard is better than S-400 for that purpose apparently.



some cheap $20 drone with single frag granade.


----------



## Nikosandros

Zardnaar said:


> Aren't the Ukrainians getting F-16's though?



Not anytime soon, AFAIK. The pilots would need extensive training.


----------



## Ulfgeir

Just out of curiosity, does Ukraine have anything with very long range and precision. Would be an eye-opener for the Russians If their planned celebrations parade in Moscow was hit in such a way that only the military vehicles were destroyed.

Might not be doable, and probably a bad idea though.


----------



## Zardnaar

Horwath said:


> some cheap $20 drone with single frag granade.





Ulfgeir said:


> Just out of curiosity, does Ukraine have anything with very long range and precision. Would be an eye-opener for the Russians If their planned celebrations parade in Moscow was hit in such a way that only the military vehicles were destroyed.
> 
> Might not be doable, and probably a bad idea though.




 Theoretically yes accuracy no. 










						A Drone Doolittle Raid: How Ukraine Could Hit Moscow
					

Exactly eighty years ago American bombers carried out a surprise strike on  Japan in the famous Doolittle Raid. Ukraine could carry out a modern version using its drones to send a powerful message to Russia.




					www.google.com
				



  Would probably be counter productive as well. Had this thought ready if Putin attended. 


 This guy has been asking interesting content recently.  Lived in Kyiv prewar (American expat).


----------



## Ulfgeir

Zardnaar said:


> Theoretically yes accuracy no.
> 
> Would probably be counter productive as well. Had this thought ready if Putin attend ed.



That it would be counter-productive was my thought as well. In a movie, sure it would work. In real life, then the response would be really bad. Especially from a thin-skinned dictator who lies to his people.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ulfgeir said:


> That it would be counter-productive was my thought as well. In a movie, sure it would work. In real life, then the response would be really bad. Especially from a thin-skinned dictator who lies to his people.




 Yeah he could do worse eg formally declear war and mobilisation.


----------



## Ulfgeir

Zardnaar said:


> Yeah he could do worse eg formally declear war and mobilisation.



Or respond with nukes...


----------



## Zardnaar

Ulfgeir said:


> Or respond with nukes...




 Unlikely. Any strike in Moscow espicially on May 9th though would be more likely to trigger formal war DoW.

 Bad idea either way though for very little gain.


----------



## Horwath

Ulfgeir said:


> Or respond with nukes...



true.

unless you can nuke Red square for the parade don't bother with pinprick attacks.


----------



## Eltab

Ulfgeir said:


> Just out of curiosity, does Ukraine have anything with very long range and precision. Would be an eye-opener for the Russians If their planned celebrations parade in Moscow was hit in such a way that only the military vehicles were destroyed.
> 
> Might not be doable, and probably a bad idea though.



Zap Putin personally, and the war effort goes on Pause (or autopilot) while a bunch of would-be successors sort out "Who's in charge here?!"

Somebody with no ambition to necromancy the Soviet Union might decide to blame it all on Putin, back off, and ask the diplomats to provide a fig leaf to get out of the mess.


----------



## Davies

Eltab said:


> Somebody with no ambition to necromancy the Soviet Union might decide to blame it all on Putin, back off, and ask the diplomats to provide a fig leaf to get out of the mess.



That's a rather large assumption on which to base an entire operation -- that Putin's eventual successor will be someone without that ambition.

"[T]he dictator is merely the tip of the whole festering boil of social pus from which dictators emerge".


----------



## Rabulias

Davies said:


> That's a rather large assumption on which to base an entire operation -- that Putin's eventual successor will be someone without that ambition.



The "palace coup" hope (an unlikely but not impossible scenario) holds that someone inside Russia (and likely from one of those potential successors) realizes that what Putin is doing is disastrous to Russia's future and Russian interests. It would be illogical that they would continue Putin's plans, at least in the near term, even if they hold the same beliefs about the Soviet Union. If Putin were removed by external instead of internal elements, his successor would at least realize that immediate continuation of Putin's plans would shift the target to themselves.


Davies said:


> "[T]he dictator is merely the tip of the whole festering boil of social pus from which dictators emerge".



I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.


----------



## Zardnaar

Rabulias said:


> The "palace coup" hope (an unlikely but not impossible scenario) holds that someone inside Russia (and likely from one of those potential successors) realizes that what Putin is doing is disastrous to Russia's future and Russian interests. It would be illogical that they would continue Putin's plans, at least in the near term, even if they hold the same beliefs about the Soviet Union. If Putin were removed by external instead of internal elements, his successor would at least realize that immediate continuation of Putin's plans would shift the target to themselves.
> 
> I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.




 All the people in charge are essentially complicit. Pretty much United Russia goes down to the mayor level.

 Any civil institution that can run a Democracy even a flawed one has been corrupted or shut down. 

 They've never had a functioning democracy just 500 years of varying levels of autocracy. 

 USSR collapsed in 1991 by 1993 the "democratically elected" Yeltsin was using tanks to fire on the white house. 

 The average Russian associates democracy with the 90's. At best it was flawed and lasted 13 odd years. 

 There's no liberal opposition as such even if you found one all the institutions are run by United Russia and corruption is baked in for the last 50 odd years at least. 

 Putin's legal successor is essentially a puppet with no base of power or support in the siloviki.


----------



## Davies

Rabulias said:


> I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.



I apologize, that was not what I intended.


Ulfgeir said:


> One problem I see if he is removed by external forces; it might make the Russians more determined to continue the war, and escalate it.



_This_ is more what I was trying to say.


----------



## Ulfgeir

Rabulias said:


> The "palace coup" hope (an unlikely but not impossible scenario) holds that someone inside Russia (and likely from one of those potential successors) realizes that what Putin is doing is disastrous to Russia's future and Russian interests. It would be illogical that they would continue Putin's plans, at least in the near term, even if they hold the same beliefs about the Soviet Union. If Putin were removed by external instead of internal elements, his successor would at least realize that immediate continuation of Putin's plans would shift the target to themselves.
> 
> I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.



One problem I see if he is removed by external forces; it might make the Russians more determined to continue the war, and escalate it. As then you would for sure have an external enemy. My reading is that Ukraine doing it *might* be ok, given there already is a conflict, but it very much depends on how it is spun. Provable NATO forces doing it, hell no.

It really is a horrible situation.


----------



## Ryujin

Rabulias said:


> I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.



It's not _all_ Russians. It's the _"but some animals are more equal than others"_ Russians.


----------



## Eltab

Davies said:


> That's a rather large assumption on which to base an entire operation -- that Putin's eventual successor will be someone without that ambition.
> 
> "[T]he dictator is merely the tip of the whole festering boil of social pus from which dictators emerge".



I observe that Operation Valkyrie (upon which the movie of the same name is based) was a 1944 effort by some German Army officers to get rid of Adolph Hitler personally and take over the Government, under the belief that with him gone they could negotiate an end to the World War.

Of course it did not work as planned but a similar theory can still seem to apply.  An absolute leader who has built a cult of personality around himself can create the impression that without his direction, the machine of government will grind to a halt.


----------



## John R Davis

Ryujin said:


> It's not _all_ Russians. It's the _"but some animals are more equal than others"_ Russians.



There are an awful lot of unpleasant Russians involved. It's far from one person, or ten people, or a 100, or a 1000


----------



## nedjer

Zardnaar said:


> I know. Probably doesn't help much in driving Russians out that's what the incoming heavy weapons are for.
> 
> Russia night not be in any shape to attack come June when ground dries up.
> 
> They've lost around half the tanks and vehicles etc they deployed in theatre (580/1200).
> 
> Who knows how may tanks they have out of the 2500-2800 they were supposed to have.
> 
> Lots of speculation they'll announce mobilization on May 9.
> 
> View attachment 156460



I was posting some rough figures elsewhere . . . They went in with roughly 150,000 of which at most 20% were front of the line combat troops. A total of 30,000. They have since lost 20,000+ totally gone and the same again in casualties who won’t be back in a hurry. So 40,000 of the original 30,000 are out of it with plenty more likely affected by ‘minor’ injuries. The 'major offensive' looks increasingly pear-shaped


----------



## nedjer

Davies said:


> I apologize, that was not what I intended.
> 
> _This_ is more what I was trying to say.



The Russian military is a mix of extreme hazing, brutalisation and promotion on the strength of hazing and brutalisation. A case of what could possibly go wrong given that if that's how they treat themselves they are hardly likely to act differently towards their opponents.


----------



## Zardnaar

nedjer said:


> I was posting some rough figures elsewhere . . . They went in with roughly 150,000 of which at most 20% were front of the line combat troops. A total of 30,000. They have since lost 20,000+ totally gone and the same again in casualties who won’t be back in a hurry. So 40,000 of the original 30,000 are out of it with plenty more likely affected by ‘minor’ injuries. The 'major offensive' looks increasingly pear-shaped




 High % were probably in vehicles though but Russian btgs are short of infantry. 

 At this rate they will run out of tanks and similar equipment in 6 months using the minimum loss numbers. 

 If Ukrainian numbers are remotely correct they run out in 3-4 months. 

 That's not what they've deployed in theatre but total.

 This is assuming their army was as big as they claimed. After that even if they mobilize they'll have to raid tank graveyards erm I mean reserves.

Basically they have to win quickly or change the equation in terms of losses.


----------



## Horwath

nedjer said:


> The Russian military is a mix of extreme hazing, brutalisation and promotion on the strength of hazing and brutalisation. A case of what could possibly go wrong given that if that's how they treat themselves they are hardly likely to act differently towards their opponents.



Yeah, "dedovshchina" produces incompetent, demoralised and/or pychopathyc soldiers, who could have seen that...

"insert surprised pikachu face"


----------



## Sacrosanct

nedjer said:


> The Russian military is a mix of extreme hazing, brutalisation and promotion on the strength of hazing and brutalisation. A case of what could possibly go wrong given that if that's how they treat themselves they are hardly likely to act differently towards their opponents.






Horwath said:


> Yeah, "dedovshchina" produces incompetent, demoralised and/or pychopathyc soldiers, who could have seen that...
> 
> "insert surprised pikachu face"



I think it's easy to point to this as the reason we see human rights violations, but I think that ignores the biggest reason: war itself.

Every nation involved in war has members who engage in war crimes.  Even the "good" nations.  I'm sure I don't need to list the examples.  It's one of the certainties in war, along with civilian suffering.  War breaks people.  It becomes personal.  In survival mode, your focus becomes what is immediately around you.  If you (general you) keep seeing your buddies getting blown to pieces, many people will completely break and lash out in horrific ways.  The first casualty of war is the humanization of "the other side".  Those people cease to become people.  They become things.  Bad things.  Things that hate you and want you dead.  Dehumanizing them makes it easier to kill them. 

When I first joined the military, from day 1 of boot camp they stress how "the enemy" is less than human.  I understand the logic behind it.  In war, you don't want to hesitate, and people hesitate if they view the other person shooting at them as a human being.

This gets even more complex when you have an environment where if you don't kill those people, or blow up that building of civilians, you get shot yourself.  It's really easy for people to immediately leap to "following orders isn't an excuse", but no one has actually been in a position of having a gun to your head, or being told a gun is to the head of your family if you don't.

War breaks people.  I suspect if anyone decided to do the research after this war, we'd see a dramatic spike in suicides by Russian soldiers after they get back.  The suicide rate among _American _soldiers is exceptionally high, and we weren't engaged in what the Russian soldiers are.

I want to be very clear that I'm not making excuses or saying that they don't need to face accountability.  I'm just sayings its not as simple to say "Russians are bad."  I've worked with Russian soldiers before in Bosnia.  None of them were like this. They were all the same as everyone else.  Just like the soldiers I worked with from other nations that were also there.  The horrors of war always takes its toll on humanity, and causes people to do horrific things they wouldn't have otherwise.  To every side.  It's one of the main reasons I'm so anti-war unless unavoidable.


----------



## Umbran

Sacrosanct said:


> War breaks people.  It becomes personal.  In survival mode, your focus becomes what is immediately around you.  If you (general you) keep seeing your buddies getting blown to pieces, many people will completely break and lash out in horrific ways.




I don't argue with the points you are making, but.. it is also simpler than that.  Humans don't have to be "broken" by being a witness or victim of the violence of war themselves to do horrible things to other human beings.  I mean, in the US in each of the past couple of years, some 20,000 people died in gun homicides.  And hundreds of thousands were victims of sexual assault.  And none of those were done in war. 

We are doing horrible things to each other, even without war.  So, when horrible things happen in war, maybe we should not place all that blame on the war itself.


----------



## Zardnaar

An armies reputation is only as good as it's worst members. 

 Wars a dirty business at the best of times. The only difference between army A and B is how widescale the atrocities are. 

 The bigger difference is the home front and if you confront it and hold people accountable or double down on denial and justifications.


----------



## Hussar

Sacrosanct said:


> Every nation involved in war has members who engage in war crimes. Even the "good" nations. I'm sure I don't need to list the examples.



True, but, there are some very important differences.

When Canadian soldiers beat a Somali kid to death, they went to jail (although, probably more of them should have) and the Airborne Regiment was disbanded.  Canada, thirty years later, still doesn't have an Airborne Regiment.  After the events, they started investigations throughout the Forces to identify and weed out bad actors.  To varying degrees of success, fair enough, but, the attempt was at least made.

The Americans, for all their faults, have been remarkably restrained in their military actions since Viet Nam.  And, again, I'm struggling to recall American run rape camps.  While there have always been civilian casualties, and that's a tragedy, the US has been pretty good about keeping them to a minimum, compared to virtually any other armed forces in history.  

The whole "war crimes happens" thing isn't really true anymore.  There's a reason we have reporters embedded with US and allied units in war zones.  We actually trust that our soldiers aren't animals.  Ask yourself why we never see embedded Russian reporters.  Ever.  Or Chinese reporters, ever.  Or Saudi reporters, ever.  

The rise of the professional soldier in the latter half of the 20th century has resulted in armed forces that aren't commiting a litany of war crimes every time they get deployed.  And that's a good thing.


----------



## Zardnaar

Potentially unreliable. Photo is probably real when it was taken????? Purported to be in Ukraine.




Back to the tyre thing. Made in the USSR in English. Apparently for export to India. 

At best it was made using old equipment probably in the 90's. Otherwise if it's being used in Ukraine it's a 30+ year old tyre.

 Some of the T-72s used are B models (unupgraded 1985 or 89 models). Tyres though apparently they're that hard up or raiding old stocks already. 

 Basic math indicates they run out of stuff in 4-6 months. That's assuming the numbers are somewhat accurate.

 Edit: Apparently that logo is a Brezhnev era tyre


----------



## Ryujin

Hussar said:


> True, but, there are some very important differences.
> 
> When Canadian soldiers beat a Somali kid to death, they went to jail (although, probably more of them should have) and the Airborne Regiment was disbanded.  Canada, thirty years later, still doesn't have an Airborne Regiment.  After the events, they started investigations throughout the Forces to identify and weed out bad actors.  To varying degrees of success, fair enough, but, the attempt was at least made.
> 
> The Americans, for all their faults, have been remarkably restrained in their military actions since Viet Nam.  And, again, I'm struggling to recall American run rape camps.  While there have always been civilian casualties, and that's a tragedy, the US has been pretty good about keeping them to a minimum, compared to virtually any other armed forces in history.
> 
> The whole "war crimes happens" thing isn't really true anymore.  There's a reason we have reporters embedded with US and allied units in war zones.  We actually trust that our soldiers aren't animals.  Ask yourself why we never see embedded Russian reporters.  Ever.  Or Chinese reporters, ever.  Or Saudi reporters, ever.
> 
> The rise of the professional soldier in the latter half of the 20th century has resulted in armed forces that aren't commiting a litany of war crimes every time they get deployed.  And that's a good thing.



There was more to the disbanding of the Canadian Airborne Regiment being disbanded than the Somalia incident. There were extensive hazing rituals and incidents, that were uncovered during the investigations. Leaving people tied to a tree and out in the rain overnight sort of thing. My uncle had been Airborne, but was out and moved into Procurement long before the Somalia incident.


----------



## billd91

Hussar said:


> The Americans, for all their faults, have been remarkably restrained in their military actions since Viet Nam.  And, again, I'm struggling to recall American run rape camps.  While there have always been civilian casualties, and that's a tragedy, the US has been pretty good about keeping them to a minimum, compared to virtually any other armed forces in history.



Well, we *tried* to hold war criminals accountable recently - but a certain set of presidential pardons got in the way. 
I wouldn't hold us up as an example. Too many civilian casualties, sorry, "collateral damage" from drone strikes. Plus, our blatant refusal to be subject to international organizations on war crimes really counts against us. 


Hussar said:


> The whole "war crimes happens" thing isn't really true anymore.  There's a reason we have reporters embedded with US and allied units in war zones.  We actually trust that our soldiers aren't animals.  Ask yourself why we never see embedded Russian reporters.  Ever.  Or Chinese reporters, ever.  Or Saudi reporters, ever.



The Soviets used to embed reporters. Vasily Grossman was a particularly prominent example. It depends on how much armies are waging the propaganda war - so they very well might have some there - they're just engaged in the project of pursuing the conflict through the state controlled media. And while we do have embedded reporters, that's also a way of controlling them. Coverage of military action in Vietnam and every engagement since are quite a contrast - the US military learned *some *lessons from Vietnam, after all.


----------



## Mannahnin

billd91 said:


> Well, we *tried* to hold war criminals accountable recently - but a certain set of presidential pardons got in the way.
> I wouldn't hold us up as an example. Too many civilian casualties, sorry, "collateral damage" from drone strikes. Plus, our blatant refusal to be subject to international organizations on war crimes really counts against us.
> 
> The Soviets used to embed reporters. Vasily Grossman was a particularly prominent example. It depends on how much armies are waging the propaganda war - so they very well might have some there - they're just engaged in the project of pursuing the conflict through the state controlled media. And while we do have embedded reporters, that's also a way of controlling them. Coverage of military action in Vietnam and every engagement since are quite a contrast - the US military learned *some *lessons from Vietnam, after all.



Yup.  The US has taken some bad lessons from Vietnam and put more controls on reporters in recent decades.  And yes, it's still an uphill struggle to get war criminals in our armed forces prosecuted and properly punished.  Nevermind civilian "security contractors" (ex-mil mercs) and the like.


----------



## Zardnaar

Mannahnin said:


> Yup.  The US has taken some bad lessons from Vietnam and put more controls on reporters in recent decades.  And yes, it's still an uphill struggle to get war criminals in our armed forces prosecuted and properly punished.  Nevermind civilian "security contractors" (ex-mil mercs) and the like.




 One of the favorite Russian whataboutism's. There's also a kernal of truth there as well.  

 USA at least is improving and the banana squirrel excuses tend to be a lot less. 

 Then again I knew expats who didn't believe Abu Gharbi or whatever it was called. 
 See previous comment about war being a dirty business best case scenario and an armies reputation is as good as it's worst members. Hell my country committed war crimes in several instances and we don't have a reputation for doing it.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Hussar said:


> True, but, there are some very important differences.
> 
> When Canadian soldiers beat a Somali kid to death, they went to jail (although, probably more of them should have) and the Airborne Regiment was disbanded.  Canada, thirty years later, still doesn't have an Airborne Regiment.  After the events, they started investigations throughout the Forces to identify and weed out bad actors.  To varying degrees of success, fair enough, but, the attempt was at least made.
> 
> The Americans, for all their faults, have been remarkably restrained in their military actions since Viet Nam.  And, again, I'm struggling to recall American run rape camps.  While there have always been civilian casualties, and that's a tragedy, the US has been pretty good about keeping them to a minimum, compared to virtually any other armed forces in history.
> 
> The whole "war crimes happens" thing isn't really true anymore.  There's a reason we have reporters embedded with US and allied units in war zones.  We actually trust that our soldiers aren't animals.  Ask yourself why we never see embedded Russian reporters.  Ever.  Or Chinese reporters, ever.  Or Saudi reporters, ever.
> 
> The rise of the professional soldier in the latter half of the 20th century has resulted in armed forces that aren't commiting a litany of war crimes every time they get deployed.  And that's a good thing.



I'm not talking about accountability after the fact, I'm talking about what causes a person to commit a war crime when they wouldn't have done anything like that before being exposed to war.

I think you're forgetting things like Abu Ghraib or Eddie Gallagher.

War Crimes will always happen absolutely is a true thing.  As true today as it was 50 years ago, 100 years ago, 1000 years ago.  Put people through a meat grinder, and there will be impacts.  This isn't a revolutionary thing, and we have data after data that reaffirms that.  There's a reason why instances of domestic violence, violence in general, and suicides are significantly higher among war veterans than anyone else.

I also never said or remotely implied that soldiers create a litany of war crimes every time they get deployed.  I'd ask you to keep to what I've said, and not argue strawmen.


----------



## Sacrosanct

I'll add that I have first hand experience seeing the horrors of war, and how it's affected people.  But I will try to avoid any anecdotal references as to why I'm arguing what I am.  Most psychologists who have studied the topic agree that situational factors are the leading cause of war crimes (these are easy to google and find).  And it's no shocker.  Break someone's rational thinking due to stressors of combat, and you're going to have some people react badly, either out of self preservation or revenge.  There are some detractors to that line of thinking, such as Matthew Talbert and Jessica Wolfendale's book, _War Crimes: Causes, Excuses, and Blam_e.  However, even their book admits grudgingly that stressors lead to war crimes, and their focus seems to be on whether or not soldiers should be blamed and held accountable.  They argue that they should be, and there are no excuses.  Which is fine, I'm not really arguing against that.  I'm simply stating that war itself, and the stressors encountered in war, may cause one to commit war crimes, and whenever you have war, you will find war crimes.  And that seems to be near-universally agreed upon.


----------



## Zardnaar

Yup if you don't want war crimes don't go to war. Well sometimes you have to I suppose.


----------



## Ryujin

Zardnaar said:


> Yup if you don't want war crimes don't go to war. Well sometimes you have to I suppose.



Like in this case. Ukraine had the choice of going to war, or rolling over and being erased. That's no choice.


----------



## Zardnaar

Ryujin said:


> Like in this case. Ukraine had the choice of going to war, or rolling over and being erased. That's no choice.




Not arguing with that. Wasn't talking about that I'm not a pacifist as such due to realpolitik.


----------



## nedjer

Sacrosanct said:


> I think it's easy to point to this as the reason we see human rights violations, but I think that ignores the biggest reason: war itself.
> 
> Every nation involved in war has members who engage in war crimes.  Even the "good" nations.  I'm sure I don't need to list the examples.  It's one of the certainties in war, along with civilian suffering.  War breaks people.  It becomes personal.  In survival mode, your focus becomes what is immediately around you.  If you (general you) keep seeing your buddies getting blown to pieces, many people will completely break and lash out in horrific ways.  The first casualty of war is the humanization of "the other side".  Those people cease to become people.  They become things.  Bad things.  Things that hate you and want you dead.  Dehumanizing them makes it easier to kill them.
> 
> When I first joined the military, from day 1 of boot camp they stress how "the enemy" is less than human.  I understand the logic behind it.  In war, you don't want to hesitate, and people hesitate if they view the other person shooting at them as a human being.
> 
> This gets even more complex when you have an environment where if you don't kill those people, or blow up that building of civilians, you get shot yourself.  It's really easy for people to immediately leap to "following orders isn't an excuse", but no one has actually been in a position of having a gun to your head, or being told a gun is to the head of your family if you don't.
> 
> War breaks people.  I suspect if anyone decided to do the research after this war, we'd see a dramatic spike in suicides by Russian soldiers after they get back.  The suicide rate among _American _soldiers is exceptionally high, and we weren't engaged in what the Russian soldiers are.
> 
> I want to be very clear that I'm not making excuses or saying that they don't need to face accountability.  I'm just sayings its not as simple to say "Russians are bad."  I've worked with Russian soldiers before in Bosnia.  None of them were like this. They were all the same as everyone else.  Just like the soldiers I worked with from other nations that were also there.  The horrors of war always takes its toll on humanity, and causes people to do horrific things they wouldn't have otherwise.  To every side.  It's one of the main reasons I'm so anti-war unless unavoidable.



War certainly leads to war crimes, but with 'good' forces it tends to be a furtive minority acting off the leash, if to some extent they were let off the leash in the first place. Here we have a leadership that condones and celebrates war crimes and a military so brutalised in parts that toddler rapists send video of atrocities home to their wives. Ukraine on the other hand don't shell civilians, have spent years professionalising their military and so seem likely to have occasional incidents but not the wholesale participation in war crimes of some Russian units. We would seem to be dealing not simply with a culture of criminality but a culture set up to collectivise the use of war crimes/ genocide as a supposedly legitimate means of enforcement.

There are plenty of predicaments under such circumstances but there are plenty of Russian units who prefer to sabotage their own vehicles or desert/ surrender and others who are being held for refusing to fight with their CO told to shoot them for desertion but unwilling to do so. In addition, 50,000+ Ukrainian civilians with a choice between fleeing and fighting have preferred to fight while thousands of Russian civilians are in jail for refusing to follow Putin's bidding. Stripping that back imo the Russian oligarchs have so hollowed out functional institutions and so diminished education and training that many troops, mostly drawn from among the most impoverished, are ill-equipped to deal with any of it, leading some to go with what is normalised within their units.

This is maybe where the collapse in Putin's prestige can help, as authority figures are vital to authoritarianism and there is likely to be hugely more dissent as 55% of generals don't make it home and your ships sink whenever they leave port.


----------



## nedjer

Umbran said:


> I don't argue with the points you are making, but.. it is also simpler than that.  Humans don't have to be "broken" by being a witness or victim of the violence of war themselves to do horrible things to other human beings.  I mean, in the US in each of the past couple of years, some 20,000 people died in gun homicides.  And hundreds of thousands were victims of sexual assault.  And none of those were done in war.
> 
> We are doing horrible things to each other, even without war.  So, when horrible things happen in war, maybe we should not place all that blame on the war itself.




Yeah, kind of hard to miss the systemic manufacture of a culture of denial and potential atrocity in US politics.


----------



## Zardnaar

nedjer said:


> Yeah, kind of hard to miss the systemic manufacture of a culture of denial and potential atrocity in US politics.




 I think you can't avoid any war crimes they're gonna happen when the shtf. 

 Why and when you go to war basically avoiding it except as a last resort. 

 Alot of American wars not really justified and the ones that are it's also debated if war is the best approach. 

 Others are somewhere in the middle eg getting involved in someone else's war to tweak the other side.


----------



## nedjer

Zardnaar said:


> I think you can't avoid any war crimes they're gonna happen when the shtf.
> 
> Why and when you go to war basically avoiding it except as a last resort.
> 
> Alot of American wars not really justified and the ones that are it's also debated if war is the best approach.
> 
> Others are somewhere in the middle eg getting involved in someone else's war to tweak the other side.



War definitely isn't the best approach to most anything. However, after a decade of Putin's economic and psychological warfare it's maybe safe to say it's easier to keep count when the tanks and missiles get involved.


----------



## Zardnaar

nedjer said:


> War definitely isn't the best approach to most anything. However, after a decade of Putin's economic and psychological warfare it's maybe safe to say it's easier to keep count when the tanks and missiles get involved.




 Well hopefully the Special Putin Disarmament Operation works out. 

 Plan B I've been saving bottle caps.


----------



## Hussar

Ryujin said:


> There was more to the disbanding of the Canadian Airborne Regiment being disbanded than the Somalia incident. There were extensive hazing rituals and incidents, that were uncovered during the investigations. Leaving people tied to a tree and out in the rain overnight sort of thing. My uncle had been Airborne, but was out and moved into Procurement long before the Somalia incident.



Oh, certainly.  I didn't mean to imply that it was only that.  I was in when that happened.  Actually happened to be dating the daughter of one of the lead prosecutors involved in the investigations of the Airborne.  Made for some really, really quiet dinners with the girlfriend's parents.  

Yeah, not going to head down this tangent anymore and @Sacrosanct I actually didn't mean to say that you were saying anything.  I was springboarding off your points, not arguing with you.


----------



## Umbran

nedjer said:


> .... in US politics.




Please back away from the politics.


----------



## nedjer

Quick summary of what was covered during today's Victory Day parade.


----------



## Zardnaar

No nuclear bomber flyby and no threats of nukes.


----------



## nedjer

Zardnaar said:


> Mo nuclear bomber flyby and no threats of nukes.



Gamma World proves there is no hiding in bunkers that doesn't involve eating each other sooner or just a little bit later.


----------



## Zardnaar

nedjer said:


> Gamma World proves there is no hiding in bunkers that doesn't involve eating each other sooner or just a little bit later.




 Been saving my bottle caps.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Ukraine held its own victory day parade....using captured Russian tanks.  Bwahahahhaha!


----------



## South by Southwest

Sacrosanct said:


> Ukraine held its own victory day parade....using captured Russian tanks.  Bwahahahhaha!
> 
> View attachment 156898



We can say what we want about Ukraine, but those guys have balls. Massive _cojones._


----------



## Zardnaar

South by Southwest said:


> We can say what we want about Ukraine, but those guys have balls. Massive _cojones._




 Well what's Russia gonna do invade? 

 They could just have a few scruffy soldiers amble down the street in Kyiv. Real soldiers vs Potemkin parade ground posers.


----------



## nedjer

South by Southwest said:


> We can say what we want about Ukraine, but those guys have balls. Massive _cojones._



Even the kids have massive _cojones._

15-year old with shot up legs drove a car to evacuate four adults.


----------



## Imaculata

Apparently Russian state tv and the website of a prominent state news outlet got hacked, to instead spread the truth about the war. The balls on these people.


----------



## nedjer

Imaculata said:


> Apparently Russian state tv and the website of a prominent state news outlet got hacked, to instead spread the truth about the war. The balls on these people.




The live feed of the 'victory' parade, Russian TV schedules and one of their major media outlets were all accessed yesterday. However, those involved did so remotely and are outside Russia. Inside Russia it's more fashionable to set your local recruitment office on fire, which is v risky.


----------



## Sacrosanct

Imaculata said:


> Apparently Russian state tv and the website of a prominent state news outlet got hacked, to instead spread the truth about the war. The balls on these people.



Yeah, all the news articles were hacked.  Two journalists took credit who used to work at that organization.  They then posted "looking for work, and probably, asylum"


----------



## trappedslider

Turkey's leader opposes letting Finland, Sweden join NATO
					

HELSINKI (AP) — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that his country is “not favorable” toward Finland and Sweden joining NATO , indicating Turkey could use its membership in the Western military alliance to veto moves to admit the two countries.




					apnews.com


----------



## Imaculata

Because of course he would!


----------



## nedjer

Erdogan is likely mouthing off for his feverish base before falling silent.


----------



## John R Davis

Really can't read Erdogan. His, and his country, never been fans Russia but he isn't pro West either.


----------



## trappedslider

If true, it could mean a withdrawal if the plotters are successful








						Coup to remove cancer-stricken Putin underway in Russia, Ukrainian intelligence chief says
					

The Sunday Times recently reported that Putin has blood cancer, citing an unnamed Russian oligarch with close ties to the Kremlin.




					fortune.com
				




and if they aren't...promotions all around.


----------



## Imaculata

trappedslider said:


> If true, it could mean a withdrawal if the plotters are successful
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coup to remove cancer-stricken Putin underway in Russia, Ukrainian intelligence chief says
> 
> 
> The Sunday Times recently reported that Putin has blood cancer, citing an unnamed Russian oligarch with close ties to the Kremlin.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> fortune.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> and if they aren't...promotions all around.




Coup plots are usually super secret and happen unexpectedly.

I highly doubt that if a super secret coup was underway, Ukranian intelligence would some how know about it, and Putin would not. It seems more likely anti-Putin groups are spreading rumors of a coup, in order to make it a self fulfilling prophecy. The goal might be to make Putin even more paranoid of the people around him, which in turn might make those around him nervous.... and more likely to consider commiting a coup.

I'm happy to be proven wrong however.


----------



## Zardnaar

I don't think a coup is to likely. 

1. Oligarchs have very little actual power or access to the levers of power. 

2. The ones that do are essentially reliant on Putin if he goes so do they. 

3. The ones with power and access are often unpopular with the rest. So if they get rid of Putin the others get rid of them. 

4. Conditions in Russia aren't that bad yet for a popular uprising or a coup in ones name. 

 It would have to come from FSB or military supported by the population or lots of other members of United Russia.

 Putin's also the tip if the iceberg everyone under him is almost as basd at best you get someone a bit more diplomatic. 

 And they've kinda dug themselves into a corner as well. Any replacement might have to end the war making concessions which is kinda suicidal. 

 And even if one did you potentially get a revanchist stab in the back type scenario. 

  Basically things have to get a lot worse. Russia might stop attacking but they can just dig in like the past 8 years. 

 New equipment might let you dog them out eventually. Assuming Russia loses and takes it on the chin most estimates are August through to end of the year. 

 That's planting season gone anyway. No exports via the Black Sea anytime soon.


----------



## Sacrosanct

If there is going to be a coup, I suspect it would come from the military. Not saying it will happen, only IF it does, that's where I see it originating. 

Military soldiers aren't keen on getting themselves blown up for nothing. And there is already intercepted talk from Russian soldiers talking about deserting and riots.


----------



## FitzTheRuke

What a mess.

I agree that the rumours of a coup are likely to only be propaganda.

The military rebelling seems more likely. At the very least not doing quite what they're told. Maybe not quite as far as throwing down arms, unfortunately.


----------



## Morrus

Imaculata said:


> I highly doubt that if a super secret coup was underway, Ukranian intelligence would some how know about it, and Putin would not



Well he does now!


----------



## Ryujin

trappedslider said:


> If true, it could mean a withdrawal if the plotters are successful
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coup to remove cancer-stricken Putin underway in Russia, Ukrainian intelligence chief says
> 
> 
> The Sunday Times recently reported that Putin has blood cancer, citing an unnamed Russian oligarch with close ties to the Kremlin.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> fortune.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> and if they aren't...promotions all around.











						So  you die, Captain And we all move up in rank.
					

Star Trek (1966) (1966) - S02E04 clip with quote So  you die, Captain And we all move up in rank.     Yarn is the best search for video clips by quote.     Find the exact moment in a TV show, movie, or music video you want to share.     Easily move forward or backward to get to the perfect clip.




					memes.getyarn.io


----------



## Maxperson

FitzTheRuke said:


> What a mess.
> 
> I agree that the rumours of a coup are likely to only be propaganda.



What about the cancer.  Has that been confirmed?


----------



## Rabulias

Maxperson said:


> What about the cancer.  Has that been confirmed?



I think it's also likely rumor/wishful thinking/messing with Putin's head. I have also read unconfirmed rumors online that he has Parkinson's. And if any of it _were _true, I doubt we will get confirmation unless he dies from it (and maybe not even then).


----------



## Ryujin

Rabulias said:


> I think it's also likely rumor/wishful thinking/messing with Putin's head. I have also read unconfirmed rumors online that he has Parkinson's. And if any of it _were _true, I doubt we will get confirmation unless he dies from it (and maybe not even then).



Most likely it's out there to mess with his Strong Man riding a horse, shirtless, in the wilderness public persona.


----------



## nedjer

Dictators are not unlike 1970s football players forever plunging to the deck and writhing in agony only to suddenly recover just after the player who lightly brushed against them gets booked. It stirs the pot to see if potential rivals take a nibble at the hook, elicits sympathy and totally explains why you've not been on top form lately. Given Putin's recent form I'd expect clouds of magic spray on the ankle and a certain amount of lying back hands on head while concerned trainers mutter ominously.

And yes some of his ultra-nationalist chums would make staggeringly awful replacements. More or less swapping out Chucky for Bride of Chucky.


----------



## Zardnaar

Maxperson said:


> What about the cancer.  Has that been confirmed?




 Latest one is blood cancer. Some oligarch apparently said it in an intercepted call. Even if the call is authentic how accurate it is who knows? 

It's all rumors though.


----------

